Department of Finance Powerpoint Template

Epidemiology & economy

Data as per 25th November

2 An Roinn Airgeadais | Department of Finance

VIRUS INCIDENCE


COVID-19 INCIDENCE – Ireland and other European countries

Source: ECDC, Dept of Finance calculations.

Ireland

first wave secondwave

Rolling 14-day incidence per 100,000 of the population

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020 01/06/2020 01/07/2020 01/08/2020 01/09/2020 01/10/2020 01/11/2020


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0

50

100

150

200

250

300Level 3

Level 3 effects Level 5 effects

Level 5

L3 + 14 days L5 + 14 days

COVID-19 INCIDENCE – Ireland in second wave14-day rolling average per 100,000 population

Source: ECDC, Dept of Finance calculations Up to 19th November..


HEALTHCARE OUTCOMES


COVID-19 HOSPITALISATION RATE – Ireland and other European Countries

Source: ECDC, Dept of Finance calculations. Up to 15th November.

Cases in hospital per 100,000 population

Ireland

first wave

second wave

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

02/02/2020 02/03/2020 02/04/2020 02/05/2020 02/06/2020 02/07/2020 02/08/2020 02/09/2020 02/10/2020 02/11/2020


COVID-19 INTENSIVE CARE – Ireland and other European Countries

Source: ECDC, Dept of Finance calculations. Up to 13th November.

Ireland

first wave

Cases in intensive care per 100,000

second wave

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

27/03/2020 27/04/2020 27/05/2020 27/06/2020 27/07/2020 27/08/2020 27/09/2020 27/10/2020

8 An Roinn Airgeadais | Department of FinanceSource: ECDC, Dept of Finance calculations.

Ireland

Italyfirst

wavesecond wave

Rolling 14-day fatalities per million people

COVID-19 FATALITIES – Ireland and other European countries

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

12/03/2020 12/04/2020 12/05/2020 12/06/2020 12/07/2020 12/08/2020 12/09/2020 12/10/2020 12/11/2020


TESTING


COVID-19 TESTING – Ireland and other European Countries

Source: Hasell, J., Mathieu, E., Beltekian, D. et al. A cross-country database of COVID-19 testing. Sci Data 7, 345 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00688-8, Dept of Finance calculations. Up to 20th November.

Rolling 7-day average of tests per 1,000 population

Ireland

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

27/01/2020 27/02/2020 27/03/2020 27/04/2020 27/05/2020 27/06/2020 27/07/2020 27/08/2020 27/09/2020 27/10/2020


COVID-19 TEST POSITIVITY – Ireland and other European Countries

Source: Hasell, J., Mathieu, E., Beltekian, D. et al. A cross-country database of COVID-19 testing. Sci Data 7, 345 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00688-8. Up to 20th November.

Rolling 7-day average per cent

first wave

second wave

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

31/03/2020 30/04/2020 31/05/2020 30/06/2020 31/07/2020 31/08/2020 30/09/2020 31/10/2020

Ireland

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00688-8


LOCKDOWN STRINGENCY AND ECONOMY


COVID-19 : Oxford Lockdown Stringency Index

Source: University of Oxford. Up to 23rd

November.

100 = most stringent; 0 = least stringent

Irelanddark grey = 3 most stringent[DE, ES, PT]

light grey = 3least stringent[EE, HR, LT]

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020 01/06/2020 01/07/2020 01/08/2020 01/09/2020 01/10/2020 01/11/2020


Lockdown stringency vs. GDP impact

AT BE

BG

CY

CZDE

DKEE

ES

FI

FR

GB

HRHUIE (MDD)

IT

LTLU LV

NL PL

PT

RO

SI

SK

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

2020

Q2

GDP

fall

Oxford Stringency Index (Q2 avg.)

Source: Department of Finance calculations


A FRAMEWORK FOR THINKING ABOUT TRADE-OFFS


Health / Economic Trade Off

Source: ECDC, HPSC (COVID-19 confirmed deaths),CSO (UCOD), Dept of Finance calculations.Data: To 31st October 2020Adapted from The Financial Times

ATDE

ES

FI

FR

GB

IE (MDD) IT

LT LU

NL

PT

SI

IE (GDP)

IE (Confirmed deaths only, MDD)IE(UCOD* only, MDD)

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

2019

Q4-

2020

Q2

GDP

fall

COVID-19 deaths per million population

Fewer DeathsSmaller economic hit

Fewer DeathsLarger economic hit

More DeathsLarger economic hit

More DeathsSmaller economic hit

EU average deaths per million population (308)

EU avg H2 GDP fall(-14.3%)

*UCOD: Underlying cause of deathNote: UCOD data is only available up to 31st October; in order to ensure like-with-like, the average death rate for the ECDC data is alsocalculated and presented on the basis of data to end-October. If all ECDC data were used (i.e. data up to 25/11/20), the average death ratewould be 426 per million instead of 308.


Policy trilemma – graphical illustrationHEALTH

OUTCOMES

ECONOMIC OUTCOMES

SOCIETAL OUTCOMES

SWEET SPOT

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