CPPR 6th Quarterly lecture was delivered by Dr Sandeep Shastri, Jain University Pro Vice Chancellor...

JAIN UNIVERSITY

Emerging Electoral

Landscape :Analysis of Indian

Democracy

Saturday, October 15, 2022

16th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

SANDEEP SHASTRIPro Vice Chancellor, Jain

UniversityNational Coordinator, Lokniti Network

JAIN UNIVERSITYApproaching the Theme

Using the

`Window`

Offered by 2014 Electio

ns

Will 2014

confirm existin

g trends or …

…is 2014 in any way differe

nt?


26th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research

(CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY


3

Nature and Structure of the Contest

• States at the Centre

• An attempt to make it a Plebiscitary style race?


JAIN UNIVERSITY


4

Is there a generation gap?

•What does AAP represent?

•Citizen response?


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Three Visible Trends

Poor Rating of the UPA and its Implications

Consolidation by the NDA in its StrongholdsAn emerging non-Congress, non-BJP alliance – Third Front , Federal Front



(CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

Explaining the Trends • Vote Share

Shift

• Explaining this shift

• Implications


6

UPA

NDA

Others

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

-8

11

-3

Series1


JAIN UNIVERSITY



(CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY


8

UPA

Manmohan Singh

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Intensity of Dissatisfaction

JAIN UNIVERSITY


9

Overall North Central West East South

2622

2730 30

23

52

59

53 5250

46

Should UPA get another chance Yes No

JAIN UNIVERSITY


10

45%

30%

6%

19%

Image of UPAVery Corrupt Somewhat Corrupt Not at all corrupt Don’t Know


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11

43%

29%

23% 5%

Why dissatisfied

Lack of Development/ poor governance Price Rise CorruptionOther


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12

Metro India

Town and Cities

Villages Upper Class

Middle Class

Lower Class

Poor

-29

-22

-12

-19

-15

-12

-16

Satisfaction/ Dissatisfaction


JAIN UNIVERSITYSupport for NDA• Positive image of the State

Governments

• Impact among young voters– 18-25 : 15% – 26-35 : 8 %– 36-45 : 9%– 46-55 :4%– Above 56 -2%



(CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

The `Modi` factor


14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

27

14 1310

1310 8

70

Modi Rahul

Party

Local candidate

PM Candidate

0 10 20 30 40 50

45

27

16

43

23

28

BJP supporters All


JAIN UNIVERSITYThird Front/ Federal Front

Keeping their Options Open • The Numbers Game

• Pre and Post

Election

Allies

The Internal Contradictions

• Divided we

Stand … United we Fall

• State Level Contest

s

AAP as a factor • Its Strategy • Its Appeal



(CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY To Summarize Has the NDA

peaked too

early ?

Nature of Alliances (open or

tacit) that are emerging

Candidate Choice

How close is the front

runner to 272



(CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

Post Poll Scenario • A NDA led government

– X factors – Expectations

• A Non Congress, Non BJP coalition

– Implications – Stability



(CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

Questions Comments



(CPPR)

CPPR 6th Quarterly lecture was delivered by Dr Sandeep Shastri, Jain University Pro Vice Chancellor...

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