Assessment the feasibility of sustainable tourism in urban environments employing the cumulative...

Procedia Engineering 21 (2011) 24 – 33

1877-7058 © 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2011.11.1983

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Procedia Engineering 00 (2011) 000–000

Procedia Engineering

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2011 International Conference on Green Buildings and Sustainable Cities

Assessment the feasibility of sustainable tourism in urban environments employing the cumulative linear model

Hamid Azizia*, Mahdi Biglarib, Pouya Joudia∗ a Urban and Regional Planning - Faculty of Architecture & Urban planning - Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran-

1983963113,Iran b Urban Planning - Faculty of Architecture & Urbanization - Azad University Zanjan branch, ZAnjan -4515658145, Iran

Abstract

Creating the sustainable tourism industry depends on achieving appropriate infrastructures which are directed at economic, social, and environmental purposes. A question is posed here: "How can we identify the development towards the sustainability of tourism?" In fact, a big obstacle in assessing this issue is lack of a calculation way with a mathematical logic to report about the sustainability. To do so, a list of human needs of the tourists is suggested for gathering a set of the tourism indices. These indices are extracted from the completed questionnaires by the tourists, the study of the tourists' need assessment, and also employment of Delphi technique and the categorization of needs of these people and the coordination of these indices with the sustainable development factors. To assess the amount of the sustainable tourism achievement and make the determined assessment indices operational, the cumulative linear model is employed. In this method, the urban sustainability results from assessing two distinct amounts. One of these amounts is the degree of satisfying each index, and the other is the relative importance of the index relative to other indices.

© 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of APAAS Key words: sustainable development; sustainable tourism; sustainability indices; assessment indices; cumulative linear model ————————————————————————————————————————————————————

1. Introduction

∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +98-912-641-8901; fax: +98-323-6574. E-mail addresses: [email protected]

25Hamid Azizi et al. / Procedia Engineering 21 (2011) 24 – 33Hamid Azizi, Mahdi Biglari and Pouya Joudi / Procedia Engineering 00 (2011) 000–000

Undoubtedly, tourism is not a new subject for human mind. Traveling on earth is one of the human's activities which has been recorded in the history of human life. In the Maslow's needs pyramid, the need for travel and tourism is located on the top of the pyramid next to the needs such as the need for respect, knowing one's own personality, etc.[1] From 80s A.D. onwards, another viewpoint was introduced which regards the tourism as a right. This means that the leisure and travel are parts of the human right and the governments are responsible for administering this right.

Tourism with the annual income of about 1000 billion dollars in the world is one of the most important phenomena of the present century which in addition to removing poverty, expanding justice, and creating employment produces a high income and creates jobs for the poor people [2]. This industry which is the third important industry in the world after oil and automobile-making industries is an important element in advancing the social and cultural purposes in addition to its role in improving economic aspects and undoubtedly it’s most significant effect is the closeness of human communities via cultural exchanges. Meanwhile, those countries with tourist attractions regarding the natural scenery, culture and the ancient civilization and historical and religious works possess good talents and capabilities in attracting the tourists. They can earn billions of dollars each year by an appropriate investment in different parts of this industry and retaining their place in the world.

In the 21st century, tourism is about to affect many of the geographical places and create a new spatial model in the different geographical areas.

In the present years, the sustainable development is introduced as a new method to be used by societies in order for them to think about the level of life, the social justice, and perseverance of the resources. [3] The expansion of the sustainable tourism is very essential due to its importance and the potential positive and negative economic, social, cultural, political, and environmental effects that it may have. Determining the criteria for the sustainable tourism and measuring the degree of its sustainability in the urban societies are important issues in this area.

2. Procedure

In this paper, to achieve the purposes of the research, the various aspects of the sustainable development and its role in the urban sustainability are first investigated. Then, after introducing different types of indices, the concepts of tourism and the sustainability in tourism are studied. Finally, after merging the indices of the urban sustainability which are resulted from the concept of the sustainable development with the tourism development indices, the meaning of the sustainable development is explained and the indices extracted from this meaning are assessed by the cumulative linear model. Indeed, these indices show an attempt for systematizing the current information about the environment and the tourism and assisting the better understanding of the relationship between the completion of the tourist's activity, its environmental effects, and eventually the collective and individual policies relating to it. Next, after specifying the position of each society concerning the sustainable tourism concept, planning is dealt with, and applying some strategies for enhancement of the sustainable tourism indices makes the improvement of the current conditions possible. Hence, the resulted process is a cyclic and continuous procedure over time to eventually achieve the sustainability of tourism. (Figure1)

3. The Sustainable Development

The sustainable development was first used in the book, the Limits to Growth, (one of the most influencing books in the 70s A.D.) and since early 90s, it was widely used in the urban planning and architecture. The subjects related to the sustainability of the modern models of the urban development have a longer history, though.

26 Hamid Azizi et al. / Procedia Engineering 21 (2011) 24 – 33Hamid Azizi, Mahdi Biglari and Pouya Joudi / Procedia Engineering 00 (2011) 000–000

Fig.1. The procedure of achieving the assessment of the sustainable tourism concept

Since early 19th century, many of the thinkers and experts in Europe, especially England, and also in the US worried about the rapid growth of the industrial cities and the negative effects which resulted from them (population assemblage, hygienic problems, huge environment pollution, etc). Those worries were effective in motivating the writings of Fredrick Engles and the poems of the poets like Keats, Wordworth, and Shelley.

In the late 19th century and the early 20th century, the social reformists were seeking for a way to attract public attention to the destruction of the cities and the need for the substitute environments. Ebenezer Howard, the Scottish theoretician, Patrik Geddes and his American follower Lewis Mumford can be named as examples of such reformists who were looking for making a balance between the city and its surrounding environment (nature). Thus, one of the main issues in the planning in the 19th century with which the technicians who had the sustainability viewpoint were still struggling was the balance between the city and the nature.

Another issue on which little work was done was the attempt for the improvement and the advancement of the social justice. The problems resulting from the difference between the poor and the rich, the racial or ethnical groups and how the men, and the women are affected by urban environments, etc. brought up the need for a more just society as the second principal of the sustainable development in the international societies. This issue had more complicated dimensions because it's directly struggling with the wealth and power structure of the society. The sustainable development has been the result of the deep knowledge about the surrounding environment. The modern human who has turned into a tool due to the industrial societies is the main focus of the sustainable development and it can be stated that the sustainable development has gained credit because of its humanistic dimensions. The development becomes sustainable once it's socially acceptable; therefore, respect to the rights of different groups of the people in the society and the effective cooperation of the people in the decision-making should be taken into consideration in the development.

The third current issue is the theory of the economic growth and the limits to economy in setting the natural and human orders. The economy and the sustainable growth have an inappropriate coexistence. David Pearce, Edward B. Barbier, and Anil Markandya are the pioneers of a new major titled "the


economy of the environment biology". This major seeks for the better ways for the involvement of the environmental issues in the economic analyses [4]. But can the existing concepts in the economic development be adapted in the idea of the limited Earth?

The discussions about these three subjects, i.e. the environment, the social justice, and economy, have been a mental challenge for a century or even more than that [5]. In general, it can be inferred that the sustainable development is the improvement of the quality of life by support for the capacity of keeping the ecosystems via providing strategies and a tool which can satisfy the human needs because the sustainable development is put forward in social, economic, cultural, political, and ecologic dimensions.

3.1. Definition of the Urban Sustainability

What does "the urban sustainability" mean? It may help to compare it with the "urban sustainable development". The definitions of these two are very similar and they are used interchangeably in different articles and books. One way to distinguish them is the existing idea about "the sustainability" as a desirable state or a set of resisting conditions during the time. On the other hand, the term development in the expression "the urban sustainable development" means a procedure during which the sustainability is obtained. We cannot suggest a comprehensive and exact definition for the urban sustainability because different societies have a different understanding from this concept based on the current social justice, economic and environmental conditions and also their criteria for judging about the society. As a result, a set of designed indices for determining the advancement in a society's achievement of its purposes regarding the urban sustainability may not be applied in assessment of the development in another society. However, the general features of the urban sustainability indices can be introduced which are applicable to all societies.

3.2. The Urban Sustainability Indices

One of the main questions that those who are interested in more sustainable societies face with is how we can recognize the advancement towards sustainability. A big obstacle in doing so is lack of a calculation method having a mathematical logic for reporting on the sustainability of the city.

The indices are the necessary parts for the assessment of the advancement towards the sustainable development. The existing definitions and technical terminology which are about the proposed indices are still ambiguous. The aforementioned agreement does not only mean the political agreement. The definitions should be logically acceptable. The index helps you to know where you are, along which way you are moving and how far you are from something you wish to achieve. A good index which warns you before a problem worsens and assists you in solving it. The sustainable-society indices are used when the economic, environmental, and social connection are weak.

One definition for the urban sustainable indices is that they "are reflective of a procedure for achieving an acceptable economic, social and environmental level in a society during the different generations". An exact look at the "index" element among the urban sustainable indices is often used to simplify a complicated fact [6]. To identify the various features and aspects of a fact, it’s often necessary to employ a big set of indices.

The urban sustainable indices can be determined via the simple environmental, economic, and social indices in regard to this fact that they are: • Compound • Foreseeable • Extracted from the immediate plans and documents • Created by different beneficiary groups of the society


3.2.1. The compound indices

The sustainability indices are thought to be compound indices since they attempt to connect the economic, environmental, and social dimensions of the sustainability. For instance, the unemployment rate is determinant of the economic and social pressures.

A compound index in the Seattle sustainability report is the number of the salmon which have returned to lay eggs in a shoal of the salmon which have immigrated from the local rivers. This index is related to both environmental condition (the quality of water) and the economic survival condition (the survival of one of the most essential industrial part of Seattle). [7]

3.2.2. Foreseeable indices

The most simple type of the foreseeable index is "the trend index". This index describes the historical procedures and provides indirect information about the future of sustainability. For example, examining the historical trends of a city reveals that the previously-employed development route may not be sustainable in the future. [8], [9]

Another type of the foreseeable indices is "the prediction indices". These indices examine the future condition and by using the mathematical models, they create descriptive variables from the environment, economy, society or the relation between them. The information related to the population and its growth is usually used as the prediction indices in the programming report.

3.2.3. Extracted indices from the immediate plans and documents

In natural and regional levels, the economic, social, and environmental development plans and policies of a country and the way of executing them are specified with regard to the world occasions and the local conditions. Now, the development indices can be determined in a local level with regard to these plans and policies. However, this way of extracting index from the superior plans is mainly used in the countries with a traditional planning structure which is appropriate to the democratic planning.

3.2.4. Using the opinions of the different beneficiary groups

The last feature which distinguishes the sustainability indices from other types of indices is using the opinions of the different beneficiary groups. The history of the social movements show that the most effective and reliable indices are those which are created through a widespread group participation in a decision-making procedure. [9] As a matter of fact, the process of selecting the sustainability indices by different and various groups of people is a concept that has been mingled with the real values and aims of the sustainability.

Tourism

The term tourism was first used in 1811 A.D. in English literature and was recorded in 1841 A.D. by the French Larose dictionary. [10] This issue was so important that in 1963, the World Tourism Conference was held in Rome, Italy, in which the term tourist was defined as follows: "Tourist is a person who travels temporarily and stays in his/her favorite country for 24 hours. Meanwhile, his/her travel purpose is one of the followings: enjoying the holidays, health care, study and research, religious cases and sport, experience and business, family issues, mission, and conference attendance".[11]

The historians believe that the Phoenicians who were famous and well known for business and


industry were the early pioneers of tourism. [12] The tourism can also be tracked in the Ancient Greek civilization. They provided better and more comfortable conditions for passengers all through the Mediterranean zone by coining money and spreading the Greek language, but in the Middle Ages (the fifth to fourteenth period) due to the decline of city dwelling and insecurity, the business and travel lost their popularity.

During this period, visiting the Christians' churches and abbeys was the main priority of the travellers because many abbeys were scattered in different places and the Christian priests and nuns encouraged them to visit them. The first group travel goes back to a caravan which was travelling from Venizto the Holy Land in the fifteenth century [13]. However, in the past there were people who travelled by sea and land. Gaining knowledge and information and risk-taking instincts motivated those people among which Christopher Colombus, Magellan, and Vascodogama can be named as some the most important ones.

At the end of the Middle Ages and at the beginning of the literal and artistic movement Renaissance in the Europe, most of the travels were done with the purpose of gaining knowledge and experience. [14] After the Industrial Revolution and the occurrence of big changes in the transport industry, tourism was not noticeably developed. Eventually, nowadays tourism as the world's most expanded service industry has gained a significant place in economic, cultural, social, and political fields. In 1989, the former Security General of the World Tourism Organization announced: "Tourism will turn into the number-one industry at the end of the present century". At the moment this claim has been proved to some extent. In the past, if tourism was regarded as the professional career for a special group of people including the tourists and adventurous people, at the present time, this phenomenon has been widely expanded and has many people from different groups all around the world are involved in it.

4. The Sustainable Tourism:

The sustainable tourism which has drawn its inspiration from the sustainable development definition is defined as a tourism which satisfies the requirements of the present generation without using the capacities for the future generations (for satisfying its needs). The sustainable tourism is planned and executed in a way not to have any negative effects on the environment, economy, and the culture of the host society. [15]

In 1996, Butler has defined the sustainable tourism as the one which can continue in an environment for an unlimited time and does not hurt the environment humanly and physically and its activity does not negatively affect the development of other activities and social procedures. [16]

Regarding the mentioned definitions, the sustainable tourism is the tourism which simplifies the sustainable development achievement.

The exact study of the prerequisites of the development and expansion of tourism displays that what the experts name as the sustainable development indices equals the necessary grounds and infrastructures of tourism industry development. That is to say the tourism industry and the standard development discussion elements.

The World Tourism Organization illustrates some of the required infrastructures of the tourism industry as follows: • Developing the tourism industry requires the attention to the all social, political, economic, and

cultural mechanisms of the host country. • Tourism industry is not merely an economic terminology. • Tourism is a cultural and humanistic conception before considering it as an economic tool. • In the future, tourism will be a tool for fighting against the social problems and abnormalities. • Tourism means improvement of the nations' ideas (social, cultural, political, and economic ideals).


5. The Assessment of the Sustainable Tourism Indices

In the present research, to assess the achievement of the sustainable tourism in urban societies, one of the most complex formulas which is in relation with the essential needs of the tourists is employed. To do so, a list of the tourists' human needs is suggested as a basis for collecting a set of tourism indices. These indices are obtained from the completed questionnaires by tourists and the study of the tourists' requirements and also by applying Delphi technique to identify and classify the needs of these people and coordinating them with the sustainable development factors. Although some of the suggested needs may overlap, generally, we have tried to identify a set of the sustainable-tourism-assessment indices in the urban societies which are applicable in many of the cultures, places, and times in order to be a start for the more complete researches in the field of the fulfilling the sustainable tourism assessment (Table 1).

Table 1. Sustainable tourism assessment indices in urban societies (source: research findings)

The Assessment Index

Weight of Realms

(j)

Realms

Weight of Classes

(i)

Class

Number and types of the public transport fleet/ number of vehicles allocated to tourists/ number of subway stops, bus stops, etc.

α1 Transport

Distance from the intercity ways and transit routes/ different kinds of existing ways involving railways, air routes, subway/ distance from the airports to the urban nonresidential areas

α2 The way network

Number of the hotels under the environment protection systems/ number of the tourist service centers/ number of restaurants/ the allocated budget to the tourism activities/ total tourism cost per year/ employment in hotels and restaurants/ percent of tourism population a

α3 Tourism centers

Amount of coordination with the universal electronic bank services/ amount of bank facilities to support tourism development

α4 Bank Services

Number of health-care centers (clinic)/ number of people suffering from dangerous and contagious diseases/ amount of the environment pollution

α5 Health

Degree of flexibility of the local rules concerning tourism/ satisfaction from issuing visas/ amount of combination of the environment principals with the tourism rules and planning

α6 Rules and regulations

Having ADSL per 1000 people/ number of cell phones per 1000 people/ number of electronic service centers

α7 Information technology level

β1

Infr

astru

ctur

e

Neighboring with the insecure countries of the region/ sanctions/ economic crises

α1 Neighbo-ring countries

Terrorist attacks (11 September)/ effects of the oil price, etc. α2 Occurrence of the global rises

β2

Polit

ical

occ

asio

ns

b. number of nocturnal stays by non-residents


The Assessment Index

Weight of Realms

(j)

Realms

Weight of Classes

(i)

Class

Number of the scientific conferences which are held and their degree of importance in the international and regional levels

α3 Scientific events

Number of the sports events which are held and their degree of importance in the international and regional levels

α4 Sports events

Number of the attractive public places of the cities/ number of the entertaining urban parks/ number of visits by tourists per year/ number of artistic and cultural festivals involving cinema, music, different kinds of exhibitions

α1 Urban attractions

Number of cultural or historical sites/ way of information-giving of

these centers/ number of visits by tourists per year α2 Historical-

cultural attractions

Number of the attractive natural sites equipped with tourist services/ type of the services given to the tourists in these sites/ number of visits by tourists per year

α3 Natural attractions

β3

Tour

ist a

ttrac

tions

Cost of energies consumed in tourism section/ sum of employment/ the average income of the families/ benefiting from different kinds of services (water, electricity, gas, telephone, internet)

α1 Cost-benefit

percent of the direct investment of tourism by GPD/ inflation rate/ rate of tourism profit growth/ rate of profiting and efficiency in active tourism institutions/

α2 Investment

β4 Ec

onom

y oc

casi

ons

How people treat and receive the tourists/ education level/ familiarity with the international languages per 100 people

α1 Local culture and knowledge

Percent of tourists' satisfaction from the services α2 Degree of satisfaction

Number of police centers/ crime rate per 100000 people/ number of police stuff who protect the environment and supervise the tourism activities in natural environments

α3 security

Number of active NGOs in tourism and sustainability period/ number of the active people in the period of offering tourism services/ number of the second houses to rent to the tourists

α4 Participa-tion

β5

Soci

al o

ccas

ions

Sum of different types of sound pollution, water pollution, soil pollution and air pollution/ production of urban trash in relation with tourism/ energy consumption in relation with tourism/

α1 pollution

Number and depth of dangers resulting from flood, earthquake, tsunami, etc. per year

α2 Natural dangers

Number of freezing days per year/ average temperature of the environment/ moisture percent of the environment

α3 Weather conditions

β6

Envi

ronm

enta

l oc

casi

ons

These indices depict the attempt to synthesize the current information about the environment and

tourism and to help better understanding of the relationship between the completion of the tourist's activities, its environmental effects and finally the group and individual policies relating to them.


To assess the amount of the sustainable tourism achievement and also to put the determined indices into operation as representative of any class of needs, different methods can be employed the most important of which is using the cumulative linear model. This method reveals the level of the urban societies' achievement of the sustainable development. In this method, the urban sustainability results from the assessment of two distinctive amounts. One is the amount of satisfying each index and the other is the relative importance of the index in proportion to other indices and the essential point is how of giving weight to the indices which is performed according to either the opinion of the people or the experts (employing Delphi technique) or both groups. However, it's certainly possible that the effect of all needs on the sustainable tourism be the same in all the societies. Hence, in this model, it's supposed that each index has a different influence on the sustainable tourism in the urban societies. In this model, all the sustainable tourism achievement indices are classified into 6 categories each of which is comprised of several areas. Some of the assessment indices are directed at achieving the sustainable tourism development and some are contrary to that direction

ST = sustainable tourism α j = realm weight j in intended class i, proportionate to other realms of the same class βi = class weight IV ij = index value of realm j in class i (This amount is negative for the index values which are contrary to the direction of the

sustainable tourism development). This model assesses the quantity of the development of the societies regarding the sustainable

development indices. The higher the sustainable development , the higher the amount of the sustainability of the societies in relation with the sustainable tourism. Meanwhile, the more complicated models can be employed, either. For instance, the researcher can assess the dependency of various needs on each other. In this case, the obtained model will be non-linear.

Overall, the assessment indices are divided into two general classes: the abstract indices and the concrete indices. The concrete indices of the sustainable tourism assessment consider the environmentally observable conditions, such as the infrastructures, the number of the tourist service centers, number of freezing days in a year, etc. which possess a quantitative and assessable nature, but the abstract indices are obtained from the questions that the researchers ask people and the tourists via the questionnaires about the satisfaction from the given services or other similar questions, and these indices have a qualitative nature.

6. Conclusion

Familiarity with the existing susceptibilities and delicacies in the nature system and understanding the existing opportunities and threats in the environment is an unavoidable necessity for the sustainable development planners. With the help of a conscious management and by using the modern management tools, in addition to preserving the environment, the effectiveness and good use of the tourist-attraction places can increase.

To achieve this purpose, it's necessary to assess and finally evaluate the different dimensions of tourism effects such as the activity type, the spatial vastness, and the importance of the effect. After specifying the position of that society relative to the sustainability in tourism industry, the strategies of the


sustainable tourism development in that society are introduced by using the strategy planning. These strategies can be long-term, middle-term, or short-term and they result in enhancement and improvement of the tourism indices directing at the environmental, economic, and social sustainability. Considering that planning is a continuous and cyclic procedure in nature, it's expected that the planning procedure be of the same nature for achieving the sustainable tourism.

The limits, opportunities, strong points and weak points can be described by evaluating the assessment indices and some strategies can be introduced for improving the current situation and enhancing it in the future.

With regard to the various information needs, in model is mainly employed in countries which have regular and organized DBMSsb in relation with the issue of tourism and sustainability. The more exact and homogeneous the input information to this model, the higher its assessment exactness and effectiveness will be. One of the weak points of this model is merging the qualitative and quantitative indices with each other. This weak point can be overcome through techniques of quantifying the quantitative indices. Meanwhile, other more complicated models can be employed, either; For instance, the researcher can assess the amount of the dependency of different indices on each other, but in this case, the obtained model will be non-linear.

Acknowledgement

The authors acknowledge the support of Dr. Daneshpour, Shahid Beheshti University Professor.

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