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2017/PPFS/WKSP1/015

Analysis and Mapping of Impacts Under Climate Change for Adaptation and Food Security - 1st Phase

(2012-2015) and 2nd Phase (2015-2018)

Submitted by: FAO

Workshop on Strengthening APEC Cooperation on Food Security and Climate Change

Ha Noi, Viet Nam19-21 April 2017

5/4/2017

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Analysis and Mapping of Impacts under Climate Change for Adaptation and

Food Security (AMICAF) - 1st phase (2012-2015) and 2nd phase (2015-2018)-

Hiroki SASAKIClimate and Environment Division, FAO

Workshop: “Strengthening APEC Cooperation on Food Security and Climate Change”

April 19-21, 2017Ha Noi Hilton Opera, Viet Nam

Agenda

1. What is AMICAF?2. AMICAF 1st phase in the Philippines

and Peru3. AMICAF 2nd phase (AMICAF-SSC) in

Indonesia4. Expected output

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1. What is “AMICAF”?

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What is “AMICAF”? Analysis and Mapping of Impacts under Climate

Change for Adaptation and Food Security (AMICAF) FAO Trust Fund Project, funded by MAFF-Japan AMICAF 1st phase - November 2011 to March 2015:

The Philippines and Peru Total approval Budget: USD 2,494,006

AMICAF 2nd phase - April 2015 – February 2018: Indonesia (and Paraguay) Total Approved Budget (2nd phase): USD 1,243,126

Six years project in total

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ObjectivesFilling the Climate Change ‘Knowledge’ Gap towards Strategic Response to Climate Change Collecting data on rainfall, temperature, yield,

water discharge, and household income (consumption)

Simulate the future climate impacts in the nation wide scale (i.e.2050): evidence-based climate change adaptation planning

Assess climate change impact assessment, and food insecurity vulnerability analysis.

Capacity development through series of trainings5

AMICAF structure(1st phase and 2nd phase)

Component 1: Impacts Analysis of Climate Change on

Agriculture(MOSAICC)

Component 2: Food Insecurity

Vulnerability Analysis at household level

Component 3: Enhance Community Capacities to Adapt

Climate Change

Component 4: Policy and Planning Support

AMICAF-SSC (Indonesia and Paraguay)

Guidance materials for promoting the AMICAF approach in other economies

South-South Cooperation from AMICAF 1 econoy

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Project Background

APEC Ministerial Meeting on Food Security(October 2010, Niigata, Japan)

Included in Action Plan: 33: “Hold workshop to disseminate

feasible adaptation and mitigation measures identified by the food security mapping system incorporating climate change factorable data”.

Japan funded FAO project: AMICAF

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AMICAF and past APEC meetings

2012 January: APEC workshop on Food Security, Tokyo, Japan

2013 June: The 17th APEC Agricultural Technical Cooperation Working Group Meeting (ATCWG), Medan, Indonesia

2014 September: The 18th APEC ATCWG, Beijing, China

2015 May: APEC press release on AMICAF as “Helping Farmers Adapt to Climate Change” http://www.apec.org/Press/Features/2015/0605_climatechange.aspx

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2nd phase is on-going AMICAF 1st phase was well received AMICAF 2nd phase (AMICAF SSC: South-South

Cooperation) Sharing knowledge and lessons learned is one of

the key elements Invite experts from the Philippines/Peru to

trainings or to a mid-term workshop Asian economies (The Philippines Indonesia) Latin American economies (Peru Paraguay)

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2. AMICAF 1st phase in the Philippines and Peru

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Activities in the first phaseThe Philippines To carry out the AMICAF project in the

Philippines, FAO partnered with: Department of Agriculture The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical

Services Administration (PAGASA) The University of the Philippines - National Institute of Geological

Sciences (UP-NIGS) Philippine Rice Research Institute (PhilRice), attached to the DA De La Salle University (DLSU) The Food and Nutrition Research Institute of the Department of

Science and Technology (FNRI-DOST)

All four components of the AMICAF approach were implemented.

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Activities in the first phasePeru To carry out the AMICAF project in Peru,

FAO partnered with: Peruvian Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation

(MINAGRI) The Peruvian National Service for Meteorology

and Hydrology (SENAMHI) The National Agrarian University in La Molina

First two components of the AMICAF approach were implemented.

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Component 1 :Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture (MOSAICC)Economy-wide assessment of projected impacts of climate change on agriculture

at the sub-economy scale

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MOSAICC(MOdelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)

Statistical climatedownscaling models

Historical weatherobservations

Downscaled climate projections

Hydrological modelCrop growth

simulation models

GCM low resolution climate projections

Historical dischargerecords

Water availability for irrigation

Historical water use statisticsHistorical yield data

Yield projections

Crop parameters

Soil data

Technology trend scenarios

Soil and land use data

Dam data

Food insecurity vulnerability analysis (Component2)

Climate Change Impact Analysis(Component1)

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Are some regions more affected than other regions by temperature increase or precipitation increase/decrease?

Are some regions more affected than other regions by productivity changes?

Are some regions more affected than other regions by river flow changes?

Contribute to Policy Questions on Climate

Impact

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(1)Statistical Downscaling Model

Climate Downscaling Projections

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% change in precipitation (A1B, BCM2 model) from 1971-1999 to 2011-2040

BCM2 A1B and A2 Tmin projections aggregated to 79 provinces (2011 - 2040 mean)

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Precipitation change for the period 2036-65 (with respect to 1970-2000

-10-20% increase economy wide-High spatial variability- Humidity signal is clear in north-western region

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Maximum temperature change for the period 2036-65 (with respect to 1970-2000)

-mean increase between 2-3°C- Positive change throughout the economy, with greatest increased in the highland

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(2)Crop Growth Simulation Models

Yield Projections

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• Climate change makes differentiated impacts on provincial yield; some positive; others negative

• Yields in rain fed areas will be more negatively affected than irrigated areas, both in the A1B and A2 scenarios at the BCM2 and CNCM3 climate models

Rainfed rice yield change 2011-2040 vs 1971-2000

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Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yield (Rice)

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(3) Hydrological ModelsWater Availability for

Irrigations

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- The dotted lines show the monthly historical flow rates of climatemodels for period 1971-2000 in the Sanchez Cerro Bridge station,Piura River basin.

- Bar chart of monthly flow rates of climate models under scenarioRCP8.5 for period 2036-2065.

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Component 2:Food Insecurity

Vulnerability Analysis

Characterizing vulnerability to food insecurity under climate change, and identifying variables associated with

highest levels of vulnerability

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Are some regions more affected than other regions in terms of food security? Should we allocate more resources to

help more vulnerable regions to adapt to climate change?

Contribute to Policy Questions: vulnerability to

food insecurity under climate change

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Projected Propensity to Experience Hunger(Philippines)

Present Future

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Current and projected proportion of households with malnourished children,

Surigao del Norte

Source: CBMS Censuses 2007-2010 30

Present Future

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Component 3:Enhance Community Capacities to Adapt

Climate Change

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In the Philippines Community–based adaptation making best use of

information from Components 1+2. Identification, validation, field-testing, and evaluation

of good adaptation practices at local context through participatory processes and capacity development.

Field tests: Camarines Sur (Luzon Island) and Surigao del Norte (Mindanao Island)

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Climate-Smart Farmers’ Field School

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Component 4:Policy and Planning

Support

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Contribution to domestic policymaking

Peruvian case:- Present the final results and

recommendations of the project to the Vice Minister of MoA and senior officials in Feb 2017

- Results: - Pursue how to input for the policy design - The Vice minister expressed his desire to

continue activities focusing on the most vulnerable places ->seek other funding sources

3. AMICAF 2nd phase and South-South Cooperation

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Activities in the second phase

Indonesia To carry out the AMICAF project in

Indonesia, FAO partnered with: Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and

Development (IAARD), Ministry of Agriculture Indonesian Center for Agricultural Land Resources Research and

Development (ICALRRD) Indonesian Center for Agricultural Socio Economic and Policy Studies

(ICASEP)

Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG)

All four components will be implemented

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Domestic Project Manager

(FAO Country Office)Domestic Project

Coordinator

Downscaled Climate Projections

Crop Simulation

(Hydrological model)

Food Insecurity Vulnerability

Analysis (micro-economics)

Data Provider

International Project Manager and Technical

Officers (FAO HQ)

AMICAF-SSC Organization

FAO

LOA or Consultancy

Leader of Component 1:

Leader of Component 2:

Data Provider

Technical WG :Component 1 Technical WG: Component 2

Gov.

Inter –Ministerial“Project Steering Committee

(PSC)”

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Progress in Indonesia

Component 2 training in July 2016, Bogor

Capacity development trainings and technical works Collect data and basic

information Form technical working groups Agreed on the basic study

design Downscaling: Time scale

(2020-50), 168 observation station

Crop: Rice (8 provinces), Soy (4 provinces), Corn(5 provinces)

Hydro: 8 provinces Component 2 SSC workshop with Pilipino experts in September 2016, Bogor

MOSAICC It training and server set up in August 2016, Bogo

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4. Expected output

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Technical reports for each component/sub-component The Philippines, Peru, Indonesia and

Paraguay Policy briefs for each economy (10-

15 pages) It also intends to share the knowledge,

techniques and experiences obtained in the projects through technical guidance materials.

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Thank you very much.

Hiroki SASAKIClimate and Environment Division, FAO

Hiroki.sasaki@fao.org

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