A (0)214345464748494@4ACBCD4ECF GH 1,2, IQPSR 1 ...

33 1 Vol.33, No.1

2013 1 Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice Jan., 2013

: 1000-6788(2013)01-0050-11 : F416.31; F224.0

: A

"!"#"$"%"&"'"(")+*+,"-+./ 0

1,2, 13254 1, 68739 3, :8;=< 3

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g`q`resctùev`m`n`wcx: yz`|cm`n~``m`n~s``m`n

.]`_ yz`|c m`n`dcf`ge`chè`]`_ | m`n . m`nche``sb

. gql]_ | mnhsgq ]`_`m`nche¡`¢``£``w`¤`]`_¥`c¦§`¨©cª«. ¬ce®`¯`° p`± z`²`³`´`µ h`¶e·`¸¹cº ,»`¼`½`¾`¿ t`g`qùev`]`_ |c m`n`cgelc¶eÀ`]`_```m`nche```s . Á`Â`ÃcÄ : yz`|c mnche```s`c ÄeÅ`Æ ``~Çs``m`n ; k`È`É`Ê`Ë`|c `cÌ ² geÍ`ÎcÏeÐ`ÑcÒ`Ï |c `ÓÔ

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```s; åcæeç`è`´`µ ; é`ê - ë`ì`´`µ ;

]`_Price discovery on steel markets

FANG Wen1,2, FENG Geng-zhong1, LU Feng-bin3, WANG Shou-yang3

(1. School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China;

2. Center for Economic Research, Xidian University, Xi’an 710071, China;

3. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China)

Abstract Steel industry is the pillar industry of China. There exist three types of markets in domestic

which are different from other foreign markets: bulk stock electronic market, futures market and spot

market. China’s steel electronic market is a unique steel market. Its price discovery has been of concern

to theorists and industry. Study on price discovery in domestic and abroad steel markets is of great use

to the formation of steel pricing power, as well as the smoothy development of domestic steel markets.

This paper uses two classical methods which belongs to common factor measurement model to measure

the price discovery of three domestic steel markets and two foreign steel futures markets. The results show

that: steel electronic market is the leading market in domestic steel markets. The price discovery of steel

electronic market is more powerful than SHFE, LME and NCDEX; and abroad steel futures price is still

not an effective steel price by now.

Keywords bulk stock electronic market; price discovery; information shares model; permanent transitory

model; steel

1 íïîð`ñ`ò`ó, ôeõ`ö`÷`ø`ù`õ . ú 2002 û`ü`ý , ôeõ`þ`÷`ÿ . 2008 ûcôeõ`þ`÷`ÿ

37.64%. 2009 û , , ùÿ÷õþ÷ÿ , ôõÿ 56780 !" ,

2008 û#$ 13.5%, `ÿ &% 47%,

2008 û'()* 10 +,-. . /0 , ôeõ`÷ø`ÿ12 34576 . ôeõ8`ö`÷`ø9:`ù`õ , ÷`ø9:;<=>?@ABCDE ~GFH ÿE ~JIK

E ~ML7N&OP E , QQ . ôeõRSTU#$ VWXYZ[ ÷ø9: ù\] . ÷`øDE ^ U_`8 Pa )DE-b ~dc ô&ef ~dgh fQij . üklm`nopq , ôeõ`örstu “ ÷`ø`ù`õ ”, vw “ ÷`øxzy|~

: 2010-08-26zz|: z|~zzzz (70672058); zzzzzzzzzzzzz (NCET-05-0848); zzzzzzzzzz z¡z¢z£

(K50511080001)¤z¥z¦z§: ¨z© (1982–), ª , «z¬zzz® , ¯z° , zz¨|± : ²z³zzz´zµz¶ , E-mail: [email protected].

1 ¨z© , · : |¸~¹zºz»z¼z½z¾z¿zÀzÁzÂzÃzz 51

Ä õ ”[1]. *`û`ý , õ7Åe÷ÆÇÈÉÊtËÌ28Í7Î)Ï. . ÷ÆÇÈ ÐÑ ,YÒÓ õ7Å&qÔÕÖ ÷Æ×`ÿ ~~ØÙ~ 9:ÚEÛ`ý7ÜeùÝÞ 1 , 8ßàá``÷`ø`ÿEâãäå æç E ~~èé E ~~FHÿEQ`ÿE _` .

ôeõ`÷Æêëìíîïðñòó : ôõìí ~ ùö÷ø N&ù êëìíúûõìí 2 . ücô , ûõìí?`'ýþ)ÿÇÈ , `ôõÇÈs å``ö`õ7ÅìíÇÈ_ô è ;< [ . `ùö÷ø N&ù êëìí`öcôõ ìí , `ûõìí?ìí ~ êë÷ñ ~Í & Q Y , öï> [ !~ ÷Æ ~"# ~%$'& Qùö÷ø'(D')êë * B2B +î N&ù ÷,-. [2]. ÷Æ N&ù êëìí ÿ×`ö`ý é l`õ7Åe÷ø×`ÿ ~ ØÙ ~ 9:ÚE [÷Æ`ù/- þ\\< , ü01û 2~435 ×`ÿR6 \< . 7`ý7Ö ÷ÆÚEú89:;<'=>?@AB CDEFGHIJ'(K'L'MN'O , PQRSTUVWXYZ'HI'J['\]'^'H_'V . `a , bcdefg [\hij , klm[\hinVopQRqr ? sbtuvwx , ^ybtTzu fg GQR . |b~~H fg G @A . Tl fg G @A H @AbIJJ @A . bc[\]^_V^H fg QRV bt fg QR ?¡¢£¤ H¥¦§¨<=©ªQR[\]^_VE«^ . [\]^QR¬h®¯°FQR[\H±'='² , ''³'Q'R'´'µ'¨'H'_'V'¶'l [3]. ·'¸'¹'? ''º'» '['\']'^'¼'½'¾'¿ÀjÁH'l'm'Â'Ã'µ'¨'H º»

. s·¸¹? º» j , ÄÅ·¸¹?HÆÇÈÉ ¡ C[\]^ÊËÌÍHh®Î¸ , ÏÐÑÒ eº» , ÓGS(Garbade Silber)

º»3 IS (information share, h®ÌÍ )

º» PT (permanent transitory, ÔÕÖ× )º»Ø. Ù IS

º»PTº» WTÚZHÛÜ Ý «Þßà , Ðáãâä[\]^¼½Håmæç º» 4 .è åm º» ¡é êëìíº» (VECM) á Ý EÆÇîFÎ¸QRH·¸¹? . Hasbrouck[21] ïð

H ISº»ñòóô ·¸¹? ( õ«Tö[\ ) Hh®HÈ ë , ¬l÷QRHh®ÌÍøáPQRC·¸

¹?Hh®È ë HÊËÌÍ . Gonzalo

Granger[22] ïð H PTº»ù ¬·¸¹?úKÆÇ , <=ûªü ÷QRsÏÐ·¸¹?jHýÐÌÍ , îFQRC[\]^HÊË² 5. SÒþ;C è åm º» OÑÿ Ü , Æ;H ( : Baillie

Ø[18]; Harris

Ø[12−13]; De Jong[24]; Hasbrouck[25]; Lehman[26]).

;´¨H sh®È ë H . PTº» Ñh®jHÈ ë , IS

º»ù ÑÙ÷QRÊËHTö[\È ë j HÌÍ . ;H ù s ñ H Ý ¢ , <=û é êëìíº» E©ª ð [\]^ÊËÌÍ .

BaillieØ

[18]

De Jong[24] ð , Óû ð H é êëìíº» H ë ( á¸Gh® ) Î! ñ , "# è åm º»$ îF!¸'H%& . Ó ë' ! ñ , ¬îFTÚuÆ(H% . PTº» ª=²)*!C+,

, -D. ë ! ñ/01º»2 ûj . ISº»34 FÑ ë ! ñ H56 , Hasbrouck[21] ¬È ë78 ú

K Cholesky ¹?ÆÇ , 9: ë ! ñ . -PÈÉ<=¹?ÆÇj HÎ¸;<=îQRh®ÌÍH ¢ x>, ¹? , °D ï@ l÷AlHÌÍ . Bå÷QR! ñ/CD HEF ,

¢ x >GHI $ u . J GH =u ,ù

SKîFl÷LMH%Ü 6 .

áNO è åm º» HPQ , R[\]^_VH©ªnTö , S% ð d÷TU : 1) ÄÅ Hasbrouck[21],

1. VXWXY 2009 ZX[X\XZ , ]X^X_X`XaXbXcXd 7561 e , aXbXfXgXcXd 20–25 hXe .

2. 2003 Z 4 i , jXkXaXlX]XmXnXoXpXqXrtsXutvXwtatlyxzX|ttg . ~XXXXXXXaXlyxzXtgXptqt` : [XXXXaXbxzXXgX]XmXXaXbyxzXXgXpXqXtX]X^XatbyxztXgX]tm ; 2009 Z 3 i 27 , ]X^X[XXXXXgXXXXuXvXwXaXlX , XgXXXXXXaXXXl .

3. Garbade Silber[4] XXXXXXXttt tX¡t¢t£t¤t¥t¦Xwt§t¨t©tª . «XvXwX¬X¢XXX®Xptqtt¯t° . ¬X¢XpXq(dominant market) ±XXXoXX²X³X]X´X¬X¢XµX¶ , X®XpXq (satellite market) ·X¸X¬X¢XpXqX¹XºX»X¼XXpXqX½X¾ .

4. ¿XÀ IS ÁXÂXXÃXÄXÅXÆ : Howard Ç [5] Huang[6] ÉÈXÊXËXXÌXÍtÎ [7] Poskitt[8]. ¿XÀ PT ÁXÂXXÃXÄXÅXÆ : Booth

Ç [9] Ding Ç [10] Harris Ç [11−13] ÐÏXÑXÒXÇ [14]. ÓXÔX¿XÀ IS ÁXÂX PT ÁXÂXXÃXÄX` : Tse[15] ÕXÖy× XwXØXÙX¨XÚXXgÛÛµÛÜÛÛgÛXXXXoXXÝXÞ Booth Ç [16] × ÛwÛ±ÛßÛàÛáXâyãäXXX`XåXæXÀXtgXXXXgXçXXÝXÞ . Tse Xiang[17]è À Baillie Ç [18] XéXê , ëyì IS ÁXÂXíXîXvXXXXoXXÝXÞX[XïtðX¥t¦Xñtò , óXôXÔ PT ÁXÂ , ÃXÄXwXØXÙXõXdXXgXXöX÷ XøXùXúXûXüXXttáXýÿþXttXttotXÝtÞ , XXÃXÄXXqyãXgtYÿxzttgXtÔ t« wX§X¨ . , Tse Ç [19] Cabrera Ç [20] ¿XÀXwXXXpXq XtoXX²t³X .

5. , ! X_XzX¤" (common factor coefficients, #$ So Tse[23] Tse Xiang[17]) Ð_Xz%&' Õ() (common-factor component weight approach, #$ Cabrera[20]), XX**+XÁXÂ (component share, #$Yan Zivot[3]).

6. ± So Tse[23], X Lien[27] ,-X].X«XY/ .

52 ¤1012 ³1 1354 §16 7 33 8

:9:; #:< ÖH:=:>:?:@ ( Ó:A ) E:B:CÙE:?:D:E:FEH ü ÷QRh®¸G ' ! ñ ; 2) BaillieØ

[18] ï@Ò e Æ:G? , IHÙ IS

º» ©ª ð Hh®ÌÍ ¢ x > H B:J:K CQR[\]^_VH¯Ûû . BoothØ[16]I ïð !¸H:L:M ; 3) Yan

Zivot[3] R # %:N º» , ¼½Ñåm º» H%:N /:O ¹:P . ]^,:Q R # l eº» ÎV:R½'å'÷:SUT:?UV'±'[\']^'_UW . X:Yá , ¬å eº» %¯:Z:[R # , WÆ:\

h®:]:S:T:^:_:F:[:VÔÕ /:` E /:a :V óô .b ¢ :c, :d:eÈÉ:f:g:h , i:j:k:lImon:p:q:r:s:S:T:t:u:v:w:x:y:z , :w:|::~:::: [7], :::

[28] V:: , :::u:v:w ( ^:_:v:w ) :::::::::::::::::zUk: :¡U:¢:£ .¤ n , :u:v:w::::¥:¦:§:¨:©:ª::«:¬::®:¯:°:± [29], ²:³:t:u:::v:w: IS ´:µ:¶:·:¸:¹:º:»:¼::::::½:¾:¿:À [3]. Á ¤ , Â:Ã:f:gÄ::v:w:Å:Æ:Ç:È:É:Ê::´:µ:Ë: . :w Baillie Ì [18] Booth

Ì [16], Â:Ã:Í:Î:::¿:À::::Ï:Ð:v . Ñ:n , : Yan Zivot[3] :Ò:Ó , Ô:Õ:Ö:::::×::Ø:::ÙÚ ´:µ:Û:±:Ü:Ý:Þ: .

Â:Ã::ßImoà:¢:á:â:ã:ä : å:æ:ç:ä:::::×:::::è: Ò:´ , å:é:ç:ê:p:q:: ::v:w:fUg , UëUì UUUUíUîU²UÂUïUUðUUñUò , åUóUçUäU«UôUØUU¢U£UUõUÁUöU÷ , åUøUçUäU¢UùUU¯Uú:Ò:Ó .

2 ûýüýþýÿ

IS ´:µ: PT ´:µ::ú:x , :Õ :´:µ::¼UÅ:ÆUÇUÈ:ÊUô , :ì ::::¹ ì :Á . , :Ð::Ò:oð !":´:µ (reduced form vector error correction

model, :ß#:ä VEC ´:µ ) Ý:Ë::::::: [3,14,17−18]. Á ¤ , $:Â:Ã:::% , :á:Ò:æ&oð:p ' VEC ´:µ , ()*:ß :

[

∆x1t

∆x2t

]

=

[

c1t

c2t

]

+

[

α1

α2

]

· [ β1 β2 ] ·

[

x1t−1

x2t−1

]

+ Φ1 ·

[

∆x1t−1

∆x2t−1

]

+ · · · + Φp ·

[

∆x1t−p

∆x2t−p

]

+

[

ε1t

ε2t

]

(1)

+ % , [ β1 β2 ] ():Ç:Èoð ,

[

α1

α2

]

() !",:voð , :³-. ∆xit(i = 1, 2) / ì0 ð:12:Ð34 ¾:5:È67 . 8 Zt =

[

α1

α2

]

· [ β1 β2 ] ·

[

x1t−1

x2t−1

]

, 9 Zt #:ä !": , ;:< x1t,2t => §:Ð3 : +?@ 5:È . εit = (ε1t, ε2t)

′ Ð:©:ä 0, A :ä Ω BC :í:î . Ω DE:ä :

Ω =

(

σ21 ρσ1σ2

ρσ1σ2 σ22

)

(2)

σ21(σ2

2)0F äC 0 ð ε1t(ε2t) A , ρ äC 0 ð::¯:ú,:v . IS ´:µ:Ô VEC ´:µGHIoðJ:½:Ï

Ð:: :

∆Xt = Ψ(B)et (3) +K 0 DE :

Xt = Ψ(1)

(

t∑

s=1

es

)

+ Ψ∗(B)et (4)

Ψ(1)et LM <N:¿:À (innovation) et / ì í:î: > §OP . Ψ(B) Ψ∗(B) ä :EQR , B äST: . $ IS ´:µ% , :¼UV Ψ(1). Johansen[30] (W :

Ψ(1) = B⊥Πα⊥′, Π =

α⊥′

I −

k∑

j=1

Aj

β⊥

−1

(5)

α ¥ βF ê VEC ´:µ%o !",:voð::Ç:Èoð , ßX ⊥ ():":roð . Á ¤ , y:::w α

¥ β ::Î::::%o¿:À:U:U . Y;Z , $:Â:Ã[:% , :p:q:r:s:::Å:Æ:Õ:Õ 0 ÷U¥\^] . :ß_ ùa`^UrUsUU ( UhcbcdceUpcfa`^UrUsa%^gUäch , c# SSEC) U§ciUU ( UhcbU§ciUrUscjUäch ,

# SHFE) :::::×: . :Ê:ôÄ:v:::í:î::¹' 0 ä:ÏkUí:î , n = 2, β = (1,−1)′. lo³Ψ(1) =

(

ϕ

ϕ

)

, Á ¤ ϕ mn:¥ α⊥′ ¯:ú , ϕ = cα⊥

′ = c ( γSHFE γSSEC ), c ä:¹o:v . $ Ω äp:qR ,

: Cholesky Á 0r , z:k::ß:éqR*:ß :

M =

(

m11 0

m12 m22

)

=

(

σSSEC 0

ρSSEC,SHFEσSHFE σSHFE

√

1 − ρ2SSEC,SHFE

)

(6)

s1 t uwv , x : yz|w~wwwwwwwwwww 53

E (6) %o σSSEC σSHFE ρSSEC,SHFE y: VEC ´:µ%oC :ÇA QR:z . l ¤ , Õ ì:::p:q::::¿:À:::::ä :

SSSEC HB =(γSHFEσSSEC + γSSECρSSEC,SHFEσSHFE)2

(γSHFEσSSEC + γSSECρSSEC,SHFEσSHFE)2 + (γSSECσSHFE

√

1 − ρ2SSEC,SHFE)2

,

SSHFE LB =(γSSEC

√

σSHFE(1 − ρSSEC,SHFE2))2

(γSHFEσSSEC + γSSECρSSEC,SHFEσSHFE)2 + (γSSECσSHFE

√

1 − ρSSEC,SHFE2)2

(7)

E (7) % , SSSEC HB SSHFE LB

0F ()`:r:s:::::::×:::h::§i:::::::×::ß . WZ , SSSEC HB + SSHFE LB = 1. :w Hasbrouck[21], : ? H Cholesky Á 0r % ? ð::ãí , y::®:z:::¿:À::::: ß .

Gonzalo ¥ Granger[22] Ô:Á: ft

0r I::::± :

ft = ωXt (8)+ % , ω = (ω1, ω2, · · ·, ωn), ω ä 1 × n '::Á,:voð . :Î , ω ê VEC ´:µ% !",:voð α ":roð . $`:r:s::::§i:::D:ß , :w α =

(

αSSEC

αSHFE

)

, z:k:::::::×::7 , : E*:ß :

CSSSEC =|αSHFE |

|αSHFE | + |αSSEC |, CSSHFE =

|αSSEC |

|αSHFE | + |αSSEC |(9)

3 ÂUÃc¡c¢a% lc£cdUUpUqa`^UrUsUU —— cbcdceUpcfa`^UrUsa%^g (SSEC) ¤UäUvUwUc¥Uc¦ .

lo³§¨©:êª:::å:¹cdUr:sc«c 7 , ¬¡¢]:ä®:¯Ur° Õ ìc± §c¨c©:±cc²³ ´°cµU:v:w . i:::Â[¡¶:¥bde§¨©:r:s:±:[:X·« ( ¸: 5.75mm×1500mm×C, q¹ Q235/

SS400) ::v:w , :¹X·«:i:::v:wº:· . Á»7 5.5mm :v:w:y:z , ¼ª¸:/½¾¿À:ä 0 Á ,

j:¬::ÂÃ« 5.5mm×1500mm×C, Q235/SS400 §¨©:i:::v:w . v:w¶ÅÄ´bde:pf`:r:s%g:¬::pfÆ .Ç j:kb:§i:r:sj (SHFE) ÈÉ:p:§i::r:s:ðÊd:³:q:§i , ¬¡¢TË:Õ ì±ÌÍ ²³§È:±Ä´°µ:::v:w . i:::::¥:§i:±cX·c« ( ¸: 16mm–25mm, q¹ HRB400) ¯Î:bÏ:pÈÉ:p:iÐ: . v:w¶ÅÄ´b:§i:r:sj .ÑÒÓÔ r:sj ( # LME) Ä 2008 Õ 4

± Ë:Î:pÖ:§i , × 2009 Õ 12±

11 , p:q:r:s:ðnØ:éÙÚ ½ , I:r:Û 13 ÜÝÁ .+ % , Z%b:rÞ:±:I:r::ä 11.5 ÜÝÁ , ßàI:r:: 88.46%. á LME

3± §i:±::r:s]® , l ¤ , Â:Ã¡¢ LME3

± pÖ:§iZ%b:±Ä´°cµU:UvUw , pÖ:§ i:¶ÅÄ LME âAÆã:¬::pfÆ 8 . ä7:låæ« çÍ «:r:sj ( # NCDEX) ¡¶:ø ì± T:k:§è p:±Ä´°µ: , :ê:Á:ä:é NCDEX êëì£í:ä 2009 Õ 1

± k:§::§i:±:: , î NCDEX $2008 Õ 8

± Ë:Î< è p:§i .è p:§ i:::Ð¶ÅÄ NCDEX âAÆã 9.

ä<\]:lImon:p:q::::::::×: , ¬::¼ï::¹ð:Â:§:Ò:´ . :w:v:w::y:z , Ô 2009

Õ 4±

23 ´× 2010 Õ 5±

13 ´¤:ä:: =ñ . lo³:x:::çòÄxó:¹ô: $õ:º:r:sÄ´öIr÷ø , ä:¨ù:v:wú: , ûüjpú::v:w , :zý 258 ð:Â:v .

SSEC SHFE LME NCDEX ód:p:q:::¥:i:::::í:îþ*þ 1. þ 2 ê`:r:s::::§i:::::v: ÿþ .

lþ 1 y , p:q`:r:s:: §i:::¥:i:::::ÿ:²:Â:¹ô ,ÑÒ

LME3± pÖ:§i:¥

i:::ÿ\]:¯ , Ð:y::Ç:È:ú, . ä7 NCDEXè p:§ i:: ]d , Ä 2009 Õ:ß

Õ::Ý ,+ :¹m:ä" , ::ÿ:²:Â:¹ô , (W + :y:$ > §:Ð3:ú, . þ 2 ) , p:q:§i::

7. wyw~w s , w~w , w~w 50%.

8. : https://secure.lme.com/Data/community/Dataprices Steels OfficialPrices.aspx,

http://www.lme.com/Steel Med Prices.asp, http://www.mysteel.com.

9. !w~wt"ww : http://ncdex.com/Market Data/Future price.aspx;!w~w"ww : http://ncdex.com/Market Data/Spot price.aspx.

54 #%$%&%'%(%)+*%,%- s33

$:lImË:ÎT::¹Õ =. , :/:½07d:³`:r:s:: , 1::Î2:xkV:34 . Õ ì :$ 2009

Õ:ßÕ1:]d/:½ , §i:::/:½56W . 2010 Õ 3±

–5±

, Õ ì ::::/:½78ÿ9 , /:½07dd:: .

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10

SSEC SPOT_HRB

(a) ;< SSEC *w"ww=>? ( @A : B / C )

3,200

3,600

4,000

4,400

4,800

5,200

7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10

SHFE SPOT_RB

(b) ;< SHFE DEw~wt"*w"ww=>? ( @A : B / C )

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10

LME_F LME_S

(c) FG LME ~Hwt"*w"ww=>? ( @A : IB / C )

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10

NCDEX_F NCDEX_S

(d) JK NCDEX !w~wt"*w"ww=>? ( @A : LM / C )N1 SSEC O SHFE O LME O NCDEX PQRSTUVWXYZVW[\]^ N

4 _a`abacad+e4.1 fghijklmn

lo³ IS ´:µo PT ´:µ:Ðpq:Ç:È:ú, , rs ìtu :v:¹ ì :Á: , jrw¼cUÊUôyxyzUíUî =y ÇUÈc 10 . ¬cy|yq Phillips

o Perron ë:Î ~ (PP ) xz .PP yyy ( yy ) y , 99% y, SSEC SHFE LME o NCDEX ¡¢£ xzo¤¥xz¦§¨©ª , «

I(1), .

4.2 ¬®¯°±²³´µ¶·¸¹»º½¼¾¿ÀÁ©Â»Ã , ÄÅÆÇ»Ã½È ¡»É½Ê ¢£ËÌÍ

¤¥ ËÌ ÎÏ Ð ¥ ËÌÍ ¤¥ ËÌ , ÑÒ É½Ê ¢

.06

.04

.02

.00

.02

.04

.06

7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10

DLOG_SSEC DLOG_SHFE

Ó2 SSEC ÔÕÖ× SHFE ØÙÚÛÜÝÞßà Ó

£ËÌÍ Ð ¥ ËÌá ¡âãä ¤åæçè 11. éêë Engle-Granger SSEC ìíîï¤¥ð SHFE

ÎÏ Ð ¥ï¤¥ð SSEC ï SHFE âã á ñ . òó , ô©õ Í ôöõ âã 1%á ò÷

10. øù (cointegration) úûüýþÿüý [31].

11. , !"#$% , &'þÿ()þÿ*+,-.0/2134, 567 þÿ89 /21 ú:;% .

<1 = >? , @ : A0B2C þÿDEFGHI 55

ñ KJ KLKM , ôKNõ âã 5% ò÷ ñ KJ KLKM 12 .OKPKQKRVEC SKT , SKTKUKV KWKX 1 Y ó 13.ZK[ X 1, SSEC ìíî Í ¤¥ âã VEC SKT»Ã áK\K]K^K_ M§a`cb α = (−0.044376, 0.083377)′,dKe SKTKf ] ( gKh )

á ]KiKj , kKlKmKn \K]Ko 0.013565Í

0.007707, pKLKM§ ρo

0.4917. q \K]^K_ M§a`cb áK_¢ `cb o α′

⊥= (0.083377, 0.044376). rKs IS SKT»Ã á âãä ¤çèKVÇKtKu (7), kKl

É½Ê ¢£ËÌ ìíî âãä ¤wvKx áKywzyÍ ìyíîy¤¥ ËyÌáyKz . K|K , VÇK~ÎÏ Ð ¥ Í ¤¥ , ÑÒ É½Ê ¢£ËÌÍ Ð ¥ ËÌá âãä ¤åæçè . ÆÇ KKX 2. X 2 , SSEC KKìíî ËÌKKKK âã Ã á åæçè áKy Kz ¨K e ¤¥ ËÌ , a É½Ê¢£ËÌ âãä ¤»Ãc [KK ò áKK K ; ï Ð ¥ ËÌ pa , É½Ê ¢£ËÌá âãä ¤KvKx K , ¦K ¡ K âã á ¨åæçèKKl 80.043%. yK Ð ¥ ¢£ Y Ð Î á âãä ¤KvKx yKzKKo 36.5569%,KzK e 4%.

PT SKT ,

dKe tKu (9) VÇKk ËÌ ¦ K âã á åæKK . YKk K ï IS SKT á ÆÇ OK .

1 Ý VEC ¡¢SSEC E£þÿ SHFE !=£E£þÿ SSEC SHFE ¤¥þÿøù>¦§¨©- øù>¦§¨©- øù>¦§¨©-

LOG SSEC(–1) 1.000000 LOG SHFE(–1) 1.000000 LOG SSEC(–1) 1.000000

LOG HRB(–1) –1.001889 LOG SPOT RB(–1) –1.003268 LOG SHFE(–1) –0.740803

C — C — C –2.027559

@TREND(4/23/09) — @TREND(4/23/09) — @TREND(4/23/09) –0.000588

VEC ª«§¨©- VEC ª«§¨©- VEC ª«§¨©-Error Cor-

rection:

D(LOG

SSEC)

D(LOG

SPOT HRB)

Error Cor-

rection:

D(LOG

SHFE)

D(LOG

SPOT RB)

Error Cor-

rection:

D(LOG

SSEC)

D(LOG

SHFE)

ecm1 –0.044376

[–0.73815]

0.083377

[2.43770*]

ecm –0.065723

[–2.43005*]

0.014722

[0.75522]

ecm 0.020376

[0.73530]

0.078477

[3.19496*]3

D(LOG

SSEC

(–1))

0.092205

[1.08475]

0.532877

[11.0190]

D(LOG

SHFE

(–1))

0.153781

[2.32530]

0.243439

[5.10696]

D(LOG

SSEC

(–1))

0.105176

[1.13509]

0.113231

[1.37864]

D(LOG

SSEC

(–2))

–0.096302

[–0.98348]

0.134838

[2.42037]

D(LOG

SHFE

(–2))

–0.007101

[–0.10186]

0.100114

[1.99219]

D(LOG

SSEC

(–2))

— —

D(LOG

SPOT

HRB

(–1))

0.055862

[0.44935]

–0.234615

[–3.31712]

D(LOG

SPOT

RB (–1))

0.023234

[0.25499]

0.139703

[2.12722]

D(LOG

SHFE

(–1))

–0.071946

[–0.71331]

–0.005099

[–0.05703]

D(LOG

SPOT

HRB

(–2))

0.216920

[2.49810]

–0.009771

[–0.19779]

D(LOG

SPOT

RB (–2))

0.088072

[1.03368]

0.111013

[1.80768]

D(LOG

SHFE

(–2))

— —

C2 — — C — — C 0.001089

[1.27464]

0.000571

[0.75362]

1. ecm ¬®¯°± , ²³´µ¶®¯°±¨©-µ . [ ] B2¨µ¶´©-µ t ·¸,- . µ .

2. C %¶%>%¦%%%¹%¨%± . @TREND %¶ ø ù%>%¦%º%»%¼%½%¾%)%± . “—” %¶%¿%»%À%± . −i %¶%Á%Â i Ã , Ä%ÅD(LOG SSEC(–1)) ¶ SSEC þÿÆ³¨®ÇÁÂ 1 Ã . 3. “*” ¶¨È 5% ÉÊËüÌúÍÎ .ÏwÐwÑwÒ

, É Ê ¢y£yËyÌ y¡ ËyÌyá âyãyä ¤ e Ã wÓwÔwÕww , Ð ¥ ËyÌ py¦wwÖ , wÓw×wØw . ÄÅKÙÁ© K ï Chu Ú [33]

á KÛKÜKÝ cÞ , ä ¤©Kß Kà . Chu ÚKá o , â© ËÌKãK ÞKä áKåæ ñðçÞKè á¢£ Ké Í ÞKê áKë q zKìKí , î ËÌ âãä ¤KvKx yKïKðKñ ÞKòwó áKôwõ . É½Ê ¢£ËÌ12. ö÷þÿ0ø2ù>¦ú® E PP ·¸,- . µÇû¬ : –6.903616 ü –3.236557 –3.95874. 5% ÍÎýËüþÿµ¬ –2.872586, 1% ÍÎýËüþÿµ¬ –3.455685.

13. Johansen ·¸ , DEÈ SSEC E£þÿøù·¸ , »þÿº»øùý , Çû³ VEC ª« , SC , : VEC ª« [30,32]. ; , Â÷þÿ VEC ª« .

56 , ¦ ; <33

ï Ð ¥ ËÌ pa ,åKæ ñKÞKè 14, × ô KKÖ ,

¢£ KéKÞKä . ! " äKY# Ò á¢£ Ké y$, % É½Ê ¢£ËÌ ÜKÝ ¢£yá&(' wé Í h)(*wKéy¨KÞwè , ©+KK y, è-. áy¢£ wé . ÉÊ ¢£ËÌ/K0Kë q zKì , ÁKß ë q12- ËÌá ä3 , 45- e 67¤8 á9: .

SHFE ÎÏ Ð ¥ áËÌ âãä ¤KvKx áKyKz ¨;;KèKÓ¤¥ ËÌ , ¨åæçè< 17.0471%. X

½Á© í Ð ÄÈÎÏ ¤y¥ ËÌ âyãä ¤»Ã>=wÓ?(@KÔwÕwK , ÎÏ Ð ¥ âãä ¤KvKx ò 15 .dKe

ABVEC SKT»Ã áC ÐD æE M§ , Ñ ä ¤ , ÑF á É½Ê ¢£ âã ½Ñ(F Ð ¥ âã ¦Kâ Ð á É Ê ¢y£ â

ã Í Ð ¥ âã áGHI ò÷ . JK 1 Ð á É½Ê ¢£ËÌ âãLMN 1% ÙOPKâ ÐÐ ¥ ËÌ âã 11.3231%á MN . JK 1 Ð á Ð ¥ ËÌ âãLMN 1% ÙOPKâ ÐÐ ¥ ËÌ âã 0.51%áQ ` MN , , Ð ¥ â

ã RÂ ¡âã ¨S yáTUVW .2 XYÚZ[\]^Ý_àb

` —— cd IS ¡¢e PT ¡¢

gfih¤¥ E£ !=£ !E£ fih¤¥ =£ IS ª«þj 0.546062 0.049926 0.070266 0.729325 0.634431 0.033572

Ìj 0.950074 0.453938 0.270675 0.929734 0.966428 0.365569

üklmno 0.748068 0.251932 0.170471 0.82953 0.80043 0.199571

PT ª«p qh¨ a 0.652642 0.347358 0.183007 0.816993 0.793876 0.206124rst ·¸ b 958.3 27.6 15.3 1022.4 998.6 19.7

p µ c <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.001

a.p qh¨ Gonzalo-Granger Q ·¸,- . 89·¸ . Q ,- .uv χ2(1) Çw ; b. H0 : ωi = 0; c. xy

z , p µk# 0.001,p qh¨û¹ÍÎ .

¡»É½Ê ¢£ËÌ âãä ¤KvKx á|~ : 1) É½Ê ¢£ËÌ - Iá ¡ ËÌ h . ÉÊ ¢y£yËyÌyáy¢y£ ( Þ Ð ¥ ËyÌ(( ,

w(( ÎyÏ Í( ¡ , ((( Ú( ô ì(yíyî ( Ú ; 2) È Ð ËÌá 67KÞ o( ò 16 ,:9 å d ÍQ( ; Kãw Þ( á¡(¢ 1

4(£(¤ , ¥yï(¦ (§(¨(©(ª(« ä , Õ(¬ ((9((®(¯ §(°(±(²(³(´ ¦ (µ(¶(·(¸(²(³(§º¹>»(¼(½ , ¾(¿(¦ÀÁ§ÂÃÄÅÆÇµ¶ÈÉÊË ; 3)

ÌÎÍ ·¸µ¶§·¸ÏÐÑÒÓ Ô®¯ ²³ , Õ §Ö·×ÒØ .

¯Ù ÐÚÛÜÝÎÞßà , áâãäå §æ ¦çè ·¸ , éêëì 17, íî ÂÃïðñòôóõ·¸ö÷øùúû §üý , þÿ Ð§Óó¸ÏÜ(Ó . Ó Ô ®¯ §²³ , ÓÏ §Ê§ÂÃ>ÆÇ¶ . !" ôó ñòôó$#%ôó$&'§·¸()*+,ö²(§ÀÁ íî ÈÉªôó.- ¦ ªôó./0ª123ª , 4ä5 ÆÇÓ Ô ®¯ §°±ù67ÓÀÁ§- ¦ ; 4)8 Õ$9 7: , Ó ÌÎÍ ·¸µ¶ ÒÓ Ô ®¯ °±;Ê<Ñ§=(É>? .

¯Ù ÐÚ@AÑB ® CDEF( =GHI>?ó=GJKL ) Ò(·(¸M(³;(ÊNO>?LPQ îRST , !" >? þ(ÿU Ñ(ÓVÔ óWK@1XYZ[ ÌÎÍ ·¸ßà 18 .

î\] §^ , @A¹`_abÓ ¦ =cBdÎ§ef 1 g h , i Öj= , =cBdèf 1 ¦ § ¦ cÀÁhklO§ t mno lOÒ 5.10696, pqrs , tu cBdèf 1 uv =cÀÁhklO v t mno lOw î 0.25499, « rs , xy abÓ u cù=c î(ÿz Ü , abÓ=cù u c| îÿz Ü . !~ IS 1 PT 7 v ~ «P ¬ .

14. 2009 3 27 –2010 5 13 SSEC SHFE W , SSEC W138, SHFE ¡¢£W 4194.

15. £¤¥¦§¨©ª«¬®¯°±²³ . W´ : Foster[34] µ¶ , ¤·¸¹º» , ¼½¾½¿À£©ªÁ¢£ÂÃ ; Chiang Fong[35] ¤ÄÅ`ÆÇ±ÈÉÊËÌÍ¢ÎÏ , £ÐÑW¢£¤ÒÓÔÕÖ×ØÙ ; ÚÛÜ [36] ÌÝ , “ ¢£¥¦Þßàá½âã¥äåæ¤ç¢èéêë , ìí , î°±ïðñ«Ðòóôá½âã¥ÂÃ .” Kofman õ [29] öW÷øù µ¶ ®úûÛ , üýWýþÿ££¥¦ï¢£ .

16. õ [14] §½¢£ , ¤ÿ¢£§ Ø , ïæ¤ `Æ!"#$% .

17. Ï· & (SSEC) '( “ ) Ø*+ ” ,- : “) Ø ” ./01¦2345 Ô67 ; “*+

” íÌ +89:; Æ +<=>? @A Æ +CBED Æ + FGHIJ Æ +KL "/@A .

18. MN , OIP QR«S BT ¡UVÒ ÓW ¤XYZ Ø MN[\F Õ] . SSEC M^§Ò Ó_Ìï ¡aICbEcdef g Ìª .

4 1 ¢ Ôh, õ : ½CbWø¡U¥¦ï µ¶ 57

4.3 ikjklkmknkokpkqkrksktkukvkwkxkykzkk|Engle-Granger k~mn ~k rk , k LME Ók u ó =cÀÁkQk 1% vrskk ß,kk k~

, k NCDEX Ó u óW=cÀÁkQk 5% vrskk ß,kk k~ . k , k VEC , x 3. ík lk ~k x 4.

3 LME NCDEX VEC LME ¡¡¢££¥¦¢£ NCDEX [¡¢££¥¦¢£¤¥Ô¦ §Í¨ ¤¥Ô¦ §Í¨

LOG LME F(–1) 1.000000 LOG IN F(–1) 1.000000

LOG LME S(–1) –0.990118 LOG IN S(–1) –1.008321

C –0.099591 C —

VEC ©ª§Í¨ VEC ©ª§Í¨Error

Correction:

D(LOG

LME F)

D(LOG

LOG LME S)

Error

Correction:

D(LOG

IN F)

D(LOG

IN S)

ecm –0.166099

[–2.49689**]

0.141391

[2.06222**]

ecm –0.041251

[–1.82883*]

0.024255

[1.28673]

D(LOG

LME F(–1))

–0.346824

[–4.32997]

–0.077655

[–0.94065]

D(LOG

IN F(–1))

–0.121659

[–1.74757]

0.192055

[3.30110]

D(LOG

LME F(–2))

— — D(LOG

IN F)(–2)

–0.247619

[–3.52506]

0.002727

[0.04645]

D(LOG

LME S(–1))

0.088434

[1.07076]

–0.102973

[–1.20971]

D(LOG

IN S(-1))

0.318970

[3.81252]

0.097875

[1.39984]

D(LOG

LME S(–2))

— — D(LOG

IN S(–2))

0.075837

[0.93179]

–0.133638

[–1.96475]

C 0.001836

[1.15449]

0.001694

[1.03358]

C — —

“*” û«ëÍ¤ 10% ¬ÒâÏí®¯ . “**” û«ëÍ¤ 5% ¬ÒâÏí®¯ .4 LME ° NCDEX ± Æ²³´µ —— ¶· IS ° PT

LME ¡¡¢£ LME ¡¡£ NCDEX [¡¢£ NCDEX [¡£IS ©ª¸¹

0.133187 0.488065 0.171624 0.828376

Ï ¹ 0.511935 0.866813 0.652349 0.347651

âãº»¼½ 0.322561 0.677439 0.411987 0.588014

PT ©ª¾¿À ÷ëÍ a 0.459823 0.540177 0.370272 0.629728ÁÂÃ ÄÅ b 47.3 801.6 136.7 456.8

p Æ c <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001

a. ÇÈ ¿ û 2; b. ÇÈ ¿ û 2; c. ®úûÛ , p ÆãÉ 0.0001,¾¿À ÷ëÍ ®¯ .

x 4 ikÊ , k LME Ë u c1 k NCDEX kËu c vkÌkÍ j=kÎ kÏkÐkÑ =c . ÒkÓ 4.2 Ë u cÕÔÕÖ ÌÕÍ j= vÕ× ~Õ , iÕØ , ÙÛÚÝÜÕËÕÞuÕß ÔÕÖÕ ÌÕÍÕàÕáÛâÝãÕäÕåÕæÕçÕèÕéÕê , ÌÕÍÕàá Îkëíì äíîðïkékàkñkòkó .ôkõkö ÙkÜk÷køkùkß ÔkÖ ËÕÞkùÕßÕÌkÍÕàÕákÐÕÑÕákß ? ú ôkõkö ÙíÚðËkÞkùkß ÔÕÖÕûküÕýÕþkÿ å

, kÌkÍkàká Îkë ÐkÑkákß ÔkÖ ? kÓkÙíÚðÜkÞ ÔkÖ ó .

1) kÞ ÔkÖ à . âðÙ!"# $ kà%& , '(kê GDP )kò*+kë,-./0 Þ1 kÿ. , ÙíÚkÞ ÔkÖ23 "# à4kèíâ . 5kà6kÙ78ké9: ; àkù< , => Ø?@)A ôB , CDkÙFEGIHJKLMkÙ7NOPkàQRSTU)A , VWX 0 Þ1 Y:Z[\]

19, ^_ , VkÞ`abkè cdefgh .

2) i)ATíâ cdj kÞ ýkþklm . 2009 nokÙp .q 7irA) ÿs åtÕÙ) ÿ19. uwvwxwywzww|ww~wwwwwww . 2009 , wzw|ww~ww 5810 w , w 36.4%; w 15 zw~wwww 11770

w , w 29.8%; w~ww 8750 w , w 26.3%. uwvwwwww – wwwww (Arcelor Mittal w / )2009 w~ww 7320 w , 2008 ww 28.14%.

58 ¡£¢£¤£¥£¦£§©¨£ª£« ¬ 33

24.43%. 5®GIHFE°¯±FE°D± q. i²³ 2007 n ) ÿ´µ¶ 6·±¸¹) ÿ 74.77% E 88.93% E 52.9%.

â±irA > ÿ = , º»¼ , Tíâ ½ , ¾ ýkþklm¿ VÀ $ . à6±7¾ÁÂTíâ $ , ¾ ýkþklmÃ À ½ . ÁÂÄÕáÅ)ÆÇJ kÈ rA ( 8ÉrA ) Ê , Å)ÆÇ 2ËÌÍ áÎÏ`ÐÑÒÓà . ÔÕÖ× ØÙ LME ÚkùÎJÛ NCDEX ÜkùÎÁÂàkàkáÝ ëf CÕáÎÁÂ ÔÞ ß ¿à .

3) ùÎ²³ ¿ Váâ kýkþ ÐÑ cdj ¾Å)FE kÈ 8*ãrAäå æ Ê m . 5çè ýkþ ÁÂ éê m , ëìíî 2 7¾rAï ëð Éñçè ýkþòóôÍ E àõ¾àJö*÷ , ^_¾çè ýkþÁÂ ¿ VkùÎàV¾øÔ ù à úû À= .

ØÙ LME ¿ü , Û NCDEX ¾kùÎFE áÎÁÂ òýþ ÷ úûÿf. , Û ¾kùÎÁÂàkàkáÝ ë; 65%. 0 ^ ë Û p=nkó À , ´ ÷ ô “ q ± ” 2 . : ; , iA e À . . ±¸V¾ YJkò ÿ23 Äkò è 20 .

È; < > , LME < 1 ù ùÎÁÂàV kùkùÎà!:À h"#%$&' É , '() 1% N*+ kùkùÎÁÂ 34.68% () , ,- LME ÚkùÎÁÂ. " +/ #%$ & à ý0 ' É21435ké , 6 , ûkü NCDEX < 1 ù ùÎà f C < 1 ù ÎàV kùkùÎà cd78 , 9 , < 1 ùJ < 2 ù ùÎà ýkë V kùkùÎà+·/ #%$ & à ý0 ' É . < 1

ù ùÎà ü% < 1 ù ÎàV kùÎà cd:. . ; , LME J NCDEX ¾kùÎÁÂ ìðë+· 2 Ï à< # ' É .

5 =?>?@?A?BHC ð É3DE^è kÿ »UV±¸¾çè ýkþ ÁÂFE ùÎÁÂJÎÁÂ , F - ±G . ¾kù

Î Á Â ` aHH Ý ëHI jü À µHJ , ì ò jK ± : ¾ ` aHHÝ ë , , i h ± B ß . LM ßCN :

? 2 , çè ýkþ ÁÂFEEùÎÁÂJÎÁÂàO ¿ !:PQ .

¾çè ýkþ ÁÂJkùÎÁÂ ÎÁÂà ûÕüR ù¸% ëSTUV , 9 W ùkóX , !:YÏ . ZYÏ ëì¾ñç è ýÕþ ÁÂJÕùÎÁÂ [ ù\ Jº]^_Ý ëÕë ÀÕïÕéÔ . ØÙLME ÚkùFE`ÎÁÂàJÛ NCDEX ÜkùFE`ÎÁÂà4a e78 é!:b 2 PQ , ,-±G¾kùÎÁÂ à Îàc d S .

?e , : ± , çè ýkþ ÁÂ ¾à þf:këg øÔhiàbkè .

=nÕó , ./ Çjñç è ýÕþ ÁÂ k ùlm ýÕþ µno , ÁÂp q$ , rAVñç è ýÕþ ÁÂ rQ ës Gutv . w Ôx yJoz ÔÞ µJý ,- , ± ¾çè ýkþ :ZJ| , ~÷ j îðï àÝ ë . ¾kù EÎà ¿ü , çè ýkþ ÁÂà þf ' É :h , F 'kô Îà ùÎÁÂ ýkþ à <8W .

?@ , ±Õ . ¾kùÎÁÂ ¿ü , o± ./ Çjçè ýkþ ÁÂàÝ ë ç .

ÔÞ , ±¸%G¾kùÎÁÂàÝ ëÕÿf$ , ùÎà fkë hi¾øÔ ù à . ¿ü 4N , ±¾çè ýkþ ÁÂ:¾àÝ ë ,kç , ëgg øÔhi¾àbkè .

? q , Ì É àÝ ëµJ Ð f E , ë ìkò f E ß .

È; VEC »U R ù l > , ozì· IS »UJ PT »U f E ß : SHFE kùÎVÎ *< ' É , 5ÎVkùÎ *< ' É ; LME ÚkùÎJÎÁÂ à ý ë hiÁÂà . )Å f E ß 2 ë , IS »UJ PT »U 'kô 0kÿ àÝ ë Z B Ð , f 4" . w ò þ ÷ ÿf2 . þ ÷ ÿ2mS ó q. . < ûkükë ìkò à úûÿ , 9 :Ö×N , e2 Ï U . oz 2 O , fkë # È; l IS »UJ PT »U , ó¡¢ÁÂà úûÿ , 5 £å µJ VEC »U , ¤=¥ ÁÂ àÝ ë .

20. ¦wuwvw¨§w¤¨©¨ª¨«w¢w , 2008 , ww|ww~w 5505 w , ¬wwuwvw¬¨ww~wwz . 2009 w~ww 5660 w , 2008

¨®¨¯ 2.8%. °¨±¨²wuwv¨³ww~wwz 2008 w¨ 1993 ww~ww¨² , x¨´ 15 ¨µ¨®¨¯¨¶ww¨·w¨¸¨¹wz , ®¨¶w 458.96%,º¨» ww , ®¨¶ 203.22%.º¨¼ wzw¨®¨¶¨½¨¾¨¿ 70%.

¬ 1 À Á¨Â , Ã : zÅÄÇÆw¨È¨É¨Ê¨Ë¨Ìwx¨´¨Í¨Î¨Ï¨Ð 59

W#HC ÔÞ ß , oz FNÑP ¿ ÒÓ :

1) ÒÓ i)AÔ ÷ pÕ Ö./ içè ýkþ%× (SSEC) ¾à <Å) Ønl , Ùë º]à l ó ^_ .

È; ÔÕ > æ µJ , Ì É Ú à¡¢ÛÜ , ozçè ýkþ ÁÂàÝ ëÝ #kùÎFEÞÎÁÂ , à ëg 'kô <¾A Ønl Ï` ß , ¾à “ ^ #%à ” J “ áâ, ”. ^_ , V¾Å)FE kÈ E *ãrA5ã , FpÕ SSEC ¾à , äå¾àpæ l# Jçè é

, ¤5V B ê 0 1CiëìàJ¾íîj Eïîjà I ¿ðñò Jó¡ , I2 <Å)J Ønl .

2) ôõöO÷çèøùÁÂúà þf ' É , äûüýLþÿ,úûÇjçèøùÁÂú s , æÊ , øùú .

%çî ú û"!#$"%&"' , (ú)*+,-üý./'0 , 1 23"4"5""""6"7"8"9":";"<"8"5"" , =">?A@""B""""?A . C"D"E""""""?Aú"F"G , HI

LME J%þKLMN . 2010 O 3 P , LME QRS 2010 O 7 P 28 TVU , WX8þúYûFZ[45W\ , ]^=>45 . _àbQc , =>d LME e4fgihjklmn"op"qr"st .

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. ¥¦ , 8ÿ§a¨©p7 ¤ , |ª«F¬ . ®¯° , R±²³®:´µ ¶· LME | ,

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