Tinjauan Triwulan Perekonomian Indonesia*

Tinjauan Triwulan Perekonomian Indonesia*

I . Keadaan dan Peikembangan Perekonomian Perkembangan Perekonomian Dunia i . Perkembangan Perekonontian Indonesia t^

I I . Beberapa Indikator Pdikembangan Produksi Perkembangan P r o d u k a Minyak B u m i Perkembangan Produksi Beras Perkembangan Produksi Pertanian Terpenting Perkembangan Komoditi P e r i n d u s t r i a n Terpenting

I I I . Perkembangan Neraca Pembayaran Luar Negeri Perkembangan Neraca Pembayaran . -Perkembangan Ekspor \ Perkembangan I m p o r

I V . Perkembangan Moneter dan Perbankan Perkembangan M o n e t e r Faktorrfaktor yang Mempengaruhi Jumlah Uang Beredar Perkembangan P e r b a n k a n

V . Perkembangan Haiga Perkembangan Inflasi Perkembangan Harga Beberapa Komoditi Ekspor •

V I . Masalah-masalah Khusus Opec Masalah B a t u Bara Aspek Neraca Pembayaran dan Perdagangan L u a r Negeri Dewasa ini

I . Keadaan dan Pericembangan Perekonomian.

I . l . Perkembangan Perdconomian Dunia.

D a l a m t a h u n 1 9 8 1 a d a d u a h a l y a n g m e n o n j o l d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n d u n i a . P e r t a m a i a l a h r e s e s i e k o n o m i y a n g s e m a k i n t a j a m d a n m e l u a s d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a

Disusun oleh: Murniati Samsono bersama Pudjiastuti dengan bantuan Moh. Sadii dan Sumitro Djojohadikusumo. . ,

E K I , VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981 3 6 3

i n d u s t r i . K e d u a n y a , n e g a r a - n e g a r a O P E C b e r h a s i l u n t u k m e n g a d a k a n p e n y a -t u a n h a r g a l a g i p a d a t i n g k a t d a s a r U S $ 3 4 p e r b a r r e l b a g i S a u d i A r a b i a n L i g b t C r u d e s e b a g a i " m a r k e r " . O l e b p a r a a n g g o t a O P E C j u g a d i s e p a k a t i b a b w a b a r g a m i n y a k b u m i d i s t a b U i s a s i ( d i b e k u k a n ) p a d a t i n g k a t t e r s e b u t , s e t i d a k -t i d a k n y a s a m p a i a k b i r t a b u n 1 9 8 2 .

D a r i s u d u t k e p e n t i n g a n A s i a T e n g g a r a p a d a u m u m n y a , d a n p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a p a d a k b u s u s n y a , m a k a p e r k e m b a n g a n e k o n o m i d i J e p a n g d a n A m e r i k a S e r i k a t m e n g a n d u n g a r t i y a n g s a n g a t p e n t i n g . E h i a n e g a r a t e r s e b u t m e n g a m b i l p e r a n a n s e k i t a r 7 0 % d a r i s e l u m b n i l a i p e r d a g a n g a n l u a r n e g e r i I n d o n e s i a ( e k s p o r d a n i m p o r ) . D a l a m p a d a i t u E r o p a B a r a t , w a l a u p u n p e r a -n a i m y a d a l a m p e r d a g a n g a n l u a r n e g e r i I n d o n e s i a j a u b d i b e l a k a n g J e p a n g d a n A m e r i k a S e r i k a t , n a m u n m a s i b m e r u p a k a n p a s a r y a n g s a n g a t b e r a r t i b a g i I n d o n e s i a t e r u t a m a b a g i k o m o d i t i e k s p o r n o n - m i n y a k ( b a s i l b u m i , b a r a n g i n d u s t r i r i n g a n d a n k e r a j i n a n t a n g a n ) m a u p u n s e b a g a i s u m b e r b a r a n g m o d a l d a n b a b a n b a k a r / b a r a n g s e t e n g a b j a d i . L a g i p u l a , p e r e k o n o m i a n J e p a n g sal i n g k a i t - m e n g a i t d e n g a n p e r k e m b a n g a n d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t m a u p u n d i E r o p a ( d a l a m b a l i n i M a s y a r a k a t E k o n o m i E r o p a , M E E ) . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n p e r k e m b a n g a n e k o n o m i d a l a m M E E a k b i m y a j u g a m e n g a n d u n g p e n g a r u b t e r b a d a p p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a .

M e n j e l a n g a k b i r t a b u n 1 9 8 1 k i n i d i a k u i o l e b p i b a k O E C D m a u p u n o l e b k a l a n g a n s w a s t a i n t e r n a s i o n a l , b a b w a r e s e s i d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n d u n i a a k a n b e r l a n g s u n g j a u b l e b i b l a m a d a r i d u g a a n m e r e k a s e m u l a . ^ K e c e n d e r u n g a n t e r s e b u t s e b e n a r n y a t e l a b s e j a k b e b e r a p a w a k t u d i k e m u k a k a n d a l a m t i n j a u a n b e r k a l a d i M a j a l a b E K I i n i . K a l a u p u n p e r k e m b a n g a n e k o n o m i d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i a k a n b a n g k i t l a g i d a l a m b a g i a n a k b i r t a h u n 1 9 8 2 m e n d a t a n g , m a k a p r o s e s p e m u l i b a n y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n a k a n b e r j a l a n l a m b a t d e n g a n b a n y a s e d i k i t k e n a i k a n p a d a l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i . K e c e n d e r u n g a n t e r s e b u t d i p e r k i r a k a n m a s i b a k a n b e r l a n g s u n g d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , s e t i d a k - t i d a k n y a s e l a m a b a g i a n p e r t a m a n y a .

D a r i d a t a y a n g s e k a r a n g t e r s e d i a d a n d a r i p e r k i r a a n - p e r k n a a n k a l a n g a n y a n g b e r p e n g a r u h d a l a m d u n i a e k o n o m i i n t e r n a s i o n a l d i p e r o l e h g a m -

1- OECD, Semi-Annual Report, Desember 1981, OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) meliputi negara-negara di Amerika Utara (Amerika Serikat dan Kanada), Eropa Barat, Jepang, Australia, Selandia Baru.

L i h a t juga: Jeffrey Mizrahi, The World Economy and O u t look for Currencies, International Investment Research, Bank of Amerika NT & SA, 11 November 1981; The Asian Wall Street Journal, December 31, 1981; Bank of Amerika, Economic Outlook; World 1 9 8 2 , December 1981.

3 6 4 E K L VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

b a r a n m e n g e n a i k e c e n d e r u n g a n - k e c e n d e r u n g a n d a s a r (fundamental trendf) y a n g m e n y a n g k u t : l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i , t i n g k a t p e n g a n g g u r a n , l a i n f l a s i , n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l , s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

P e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 1 d a n t a b d n 1 9 8 2 a k a n b e r a d a j a u b d i b a w a b t i n g k a t r a t a - r a t a t a b u n a n y a n g d i c a p a i s e l i -m a d a s a w a r s a 1 9 7 0 - a n . J e p a n g a d a l a b s a t u - s a t u n y a d i a n t a r a n e g a r a - n e g a ; a i n d u s t r i y a n g m e n u n j u k k a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i y a n g b e r a r t i ; l a g i p u a b a l i t u d i s e r t a i o l e b t i n g k a t p e n g a n g g u r a n d a n t i n g k a t i n f l a s i y a n g k e d u a n y a r e l a t i f r e n d a b .

P e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i y a n g t e r t e k a n d i k e b a n y a k a n n e g a r a i n d u s t i d i s e b a b k a n o l e b s t a g n a s i p a d a u n s u r - u n s u r p o k o k d a l a m p e n g e l u a r a n p e r m u -t a a n e f e k t i f , y a i t u : p e n g e l u a r a n k o n s u m s i p e r o r a n g a n y a n g b e r k u r a n g k a r e n i t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n n y a t a (real income) y a n g m e n u r u n ; p e n g e l u a r a n i n v e s t a i i y a n g t e r t e k a n k a r e n a t i n g k a t b u n g a y a n g t e t a p t i n g g i ( w a l a u p u n s u d a b aga c m e r e d a ) ; p e n g e l u a r a n a n g g a r a n p e m e r i n t a h y a n g d i k u r a n g i a t a u d i b a t a s : e k s p o r n e t t o d a r i b e b e r a p a n e g a r a b e s a r j u g a k u r a n g m e m b e r i p e l u a n g bag i p r o s e s p e r t u m b u h a n .

M a s a l a h p e n g a n g g u r a n d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i . D a l a m U n g k u n g a n n e g a r a - n e g a r a O E C D s e b a g a i k e s e l u r u b a n , j u m l a b p e n g a n g g u r p a d a s a a t i n i m e l i p u t i 2 6 j u t a j i w a . J u m l a b t e r s e b u t m a s i b a k a n m e n i n g k a l a g i s a m p a i 2 8 j u t a j i w a l e b i b p a d a p e r t e n g a h a n t a b u n 1 9 8 2 . H a l i t u m e w a k i l 8 % d a r i a n g k a t a n k e r j a .

D i E r o p a B a r a t j u m l a b p e n g a n g g u r a n d i p e r k i r a k a n m e n i n g k a t d a n a k a r m e l e b i b i 1 6 j u t a j i w a p a d a a k b n t a b u n 1 9 8 2 / a w a l t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , a t a u 1 0 % d a r a n g k a t a n k e r j a . S e d a n g k a n d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t t i n g k a t p e n g a n g g u r a n d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 d i p e r k i r a k a n s e k i t a r 9 % d a r i a n g k a t a n k e r j a .

T i n g k a t - t i n g k a t p e n g a n g g u r a n d i E r o p a B a r a t d a n d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t s e b a g a i m a n a d i s e b u t d i a t a s a d a l a b l e b i b t i n g g i d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n k e a d a a n s e m a s a d e p r e s i t a b u n 1 9 3 0 - a n s e b e l u m P e r a n g D u n i a I I . S e b a l i k n y a d i J e p a n g t i n g k a t p e n g a n g g u r a n r e l a t i f r e n d a b , y a i t u 2(2% u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 1 . T i n g k a t t e r s e b u t k i r a n y a t i d a k a k a n m e n a i k d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 , b a b k a n p a d a a w a l t a b u n 1 9 8 3 b i s a m e n u r u n m e n j a d i 2 % .

L a j u i n f l a s i d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i c e n d e r u n g u n t u k m e n u r u n s e c a r a b e r a n g s u r d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 8 0 d a n t a b u n 1 9 8 1 . 3 M e n u r u n n y a l a j u i n f l a s i i t u a d a s a n g k u t p a u t n y a d e n g a n k e b i j a k s a -

3 Di Perancis laju inflasi tahun 1982 tetap tinggi sehubungan dengan kebijaksanaan ekspansi ekonomi di negara tersebut.

EKI, Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981 3 6 5

n a a n fiskal d a n m o n e t e r y a n g b e r s i f a t k e t a t - r e s t r i k t i f ( t e r k e c u a l i d i P e r a n c i s ) . S e k a r a n g i n i n y a t a n y a d i l a k u k a n s u a t u k e b i j a k s a n a a n y a n g b e r b e d a d a n b e r -t e n t a n g a n d e n g a n m a z b a b k e b i j a k s a n a a n k o n t r a - s i k b s . D a l a m s u a t u k e b i j a k s a n a a n y a n g b e r s i f a t k o n t r a - s i k l i s , m a k a p a d a k e a d a a n r e s e s i d i b e r i k a n d o -r o n g a n (stimulans) t e r b a d a p k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i m e l a l u i p e n i n g k a t a n p e r m i n -t a a n e f e k t i f d e n g a n m e n a m b a b p e n g e l u a r a n a n g g a r a n a t a u d e n g a n k e l o n g -g a r a n p o U t i k m o n e t e r a t a u p u n b e r d a s a r k a n k o m b i n a s i k e d u a n y a ( a n g g a r a n d a n m o n e t e r ) .

A k a n t e t a p i , o l e b k a r e n a d e w a s a i n i p e n a n g g u l a n g a n i n t l a s i d i j a d i k a n t i t i k p u s a t k e b i j a k s a n a a n d i k e b a n y a k a n n e g a r a i n d u s t r i m a k a p e n g e l u a r a n a g r e g a t i f ( j u m l a b p e n g e l u a r a n d a l a m m a s y a r a k a t s e c a r a m e n y e l u r u b ) d i

b a t a s i d a n p e r m i n t a a n e f e k t i f j u s t r u d i k e k a n g . M e m a n g l a j u i n t l a s i a k a n b e r k u r a n g , a k a n t e t a p i d i l a i n p i b a k p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i t e r s e n d a t - s e n d a t d a n p e n g a n g g u r a n m e l u a s , s e p e r t i d i u n g k a p k a n d i b a g i a n d i a t a s .

Laju Inflasi di Beberapa Negara Industri ( % b e r d a s a r k a n I n d e k s H a r g a K o n s u m e n )

R a t a - r a t a t a b u n a n

1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1

S e l u r u b O E C D A m e r i k a S e r i k a t J e p a n g J e r m a n B a r a t P e r a n c i s

7 . 2 9 . 1 5 . 4 9.2

1 3 . 5 8 . 0 5 . 5

1 3 . 6

9 . 5 1 0 . 0

5 . 0 6 . 0

1 5 . 5 1 3 . 5 - 1 4 . 5

8 . 0 - 8 . 5 8 . 5 4 . 5 5 . 0

* ) P e r k i r a a n .

366 EKI , VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

Neraca Pembayaran Internasional dari Beberapa Negara Industri ( S u r p l u s / d e f i s i t p a d a t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n , curent account,

d a l a m m i l y a r d d o l l a r A m e r i k a )

A m e r i k a S e r i k a t J e p a n g J e r m a n B a r a t P e r a n c i s

* ) P e r k i r a a n

1 9 8 0

3 . 7 1 0 . 8 1 6 . 0

7 . 5

1 9 8 1

+ 1 . 0 + 5 . 0 - 1 0 . 5 - 7 . 0

1 9 S 2

- 9 . 0 + 9 . 0 ! 2 . 0

- 8 . 5

D a l a m t a h u n 1 9 8 2 A m e r i k a S e r i k a t a k a n m e n g a l a m i l a g i s u a t u d e f i s i t y a n g b e s a r ( 9 m i l y a r d d o l l a r ) p a d a t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n . P e r k e m b a n g a n t e r s e b u t m e n c e r m i n k a n b e r b a g a i f a k t o r k e k u a t a n s e p e r t i d i a n t a r a n y a : b a m b a t a i y a n g d i a l a m i d a l a m e k s p o r n y a k a r e n a n i l a i d o l l a r y a n g r e l a t i f m e n i n g k a t d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n m a t a u a n g n e g a r a - n e g a r a E r o p a ; p e r t u m b u h a n y a n ; t e r t e k a n d i p a s a r a n l u a r n e g e r i ; t i n g k a t k e n a i k a n i m p o r y a n g t e t a p t i n g g S e b a l i k n y a s u r p l u s J e p a n g p a d a t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 m e n j a d i s e m a k i n b e s a r , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 8 1 . J u g a n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n l u a r n e g e r i J e r m a n B a r a t m e n u n j u k k a n b a n y a k p e r b a i k a n . W a l a u p u n d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 m a s i b a k a n d i a l a m i s u a t u d e f i s i t k e c i l p a d a t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n d i p e r k i r a k a n b a b w a J e r m a n B a r a t d a p a t m e n c a p a i s u a t u s u r p l u s l a g i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 3 .

P e r k e m b a n g a n n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n y a n g l e b i b b a i k d i J e p a n g d a n J e r m a n B a r a t a d a k a i t a n n y a d e n g a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r y a n g c u k u p m e m a d a i , p e r b a i k a n p a d a n i l a i t u k a r / n i l a i p e r b a n d i n g a n (terms of trade) da l a m p e r d a g a n g a n l u a r n e g e r i d a n i m p o r y a n g n a m p a k n y a t i d a k m e n i n g k a t B a g i P e r a n c i s p r o s p e k p e r k e m b a n g a n n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 ! ! t i d a k c e r a b , d a n l e b i b b u r u k d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 8 1 .

D a l a m p e r k e m b a n g a n n e g a r a ^ i e g a r a i n d u s t r i , s e p e r t i d i u t a r a k a n d: a t a s d a l a m g a r i s b e s a m y a , m a s i b a d a d u a m p a f a k t o r k e t i d a k p a s t i a n y a n ; d a p a t m e r u p a k a n g a n g g u a n t a m b a h a n d a l a m l a l u H n t a s p e m b a y a r a n l u a | r n e g e r i d a n d a l a m p r o s e s p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i , y a i t u :

a ) p e n e r i m a a n s u r p l u s n e g a r a - n e g a r a O P E C y a n g s a n g a t m e n u m n s e b i n g g j i m e n g u r a n g i p e n g e l u a r a i m y a d i n e g a r a ^ i e g a r a i n d u s t r i .

b ) t i n g k a t b u n g a y a n g t e t a p t i n g g i , t e m t a m a d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t .

EKI , VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981 3<7

S u r p l u s O P E C y a n g d a l a m t a h u n 1 9 8 1 m a s i h b e r j u m l a b 6 0 m i l y a r d d o l l a r A m e r i k a d i p e r k i r a k a n a k a n m e n u r u n s a m p a i 2 5 - 3 0 m i l y a r d d o l l a r A m e r i k a d a l a m m a s a w a k t u d u a t a b u n m e n d a t a n g , t a b u n 1 9 8 2 d a n t a h u n 1 9 8 3 . S a t u s a m a l a i n b a l i t u m e n c e r m i n k a n b e r k u r a n g n y a i m p o r m i n y a k b u m i d a r i p i b a k n e g a r a - n e g a r a O E C D k a r e n a d i a n g g a p m a s i b a d a n y a " s u r p l u s m i n y a k " ( w a l a u p u n b e r s i f a t s e m e n t a r a ) d a n p e r s e d i a a n s t o c k y a n g m e -m a d a i . S e b a l i k n y a p e r k e m b a n g a n i t u a k a n m e n g u r a n g i p e n g g u n a a n s u r p l u s O P E C d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i , s e b i n g g a j u g a m e m p e r t a j a m t e k a n a n p a d a n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n m a u p u n p a d a p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t d a n E r o p a B a r a t .

T i n g k a t b u n g a d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t d i b e l a k a n g a n w a k t u s u d a b m e n u r u n d a n p a d a a k b i r t a b u n 1 9 8 1 t e r l e t a k a n t a r a 1 5 , 5 % — 1 6 , 5 % u n t u k " p r i m e l e n d e r s r a t e " d a n t e r g a n t u n g d a r i p a n j a n g - p e n d e k n y a m a s a w a k t u p i n j a m a n . B e s a r k e m u n g k i n a n b a b w a t i n g k a t b u n g a t e r s e b u t d i j a n g k a p e n d e k ( y a i t u d a l a m s a t u t a b u n m e n d a t a n g ) a k a n m e n u r u n s e c a r a b e r a n g s u r s a m p a i p a d a t i n g k a t a n t a r a 1 1 , 5 % - 1 3 , 5 % p a d a a k b i r t a b u n 1 9 8 2 . N a m u n , t i n g k a t -t i n g k a t b u n g a s e p e r t i i t u m a s i b d i a n g g a p t i n g g i k a l a u d i u k u r d e n g a n p a t o k a n b i s t o r i s , d a n k u r a n g m e m b e r i p e l u a n g a t a u p e r a n g s a n g b a g i k e g i a t a n i n v e s t a s i . L a g i p u l a , k a l a u k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i — k e u a n g a n p e m e r i n t a h R e a g a n ( y a n g d i i k u t i o l e b p e m e r i n t a h I n g g e r i s d a n b e b e r a p a n e g a r a E r o p a B a r a t ) t i d a k m e n g a l a m i p e r u b a b a n d a n t e t a p d i l a n j u t k a n d i t a b u n - t a b u n m e n d a t a n g , m a k a d i k u a t i r k a n b a b w a d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 3 t i n g k a t b u n g a a k a n m e n i n g k a t l a g i . p a d a s a a t i n i s u d a b s e m a k i n d i s a n g s i k a n o l e b k a l a n g a n y a n g b e r p e n g a r u b d a n y a n g s e m a k i n m e l u a s d a l a m d u n i a i n t e r n a s i o n a l , b a b w a k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i - k e u a n g a n p e m e r i n t a h R e a g a n a k a n m e m b a w a b a s i l .

K e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i t e r m a k s u d b e r p o k o k p a d a a p a y a n g d i s e b u t s e b a g a i "supply-side economics", d e n g a n k o m b i n a s i s u a t u p o U t i k m o n e t e r y a n g k e t a t - r e s t r i k t i f . H a k e k a t d a l a m a l a m p i k i r a n " s u p p l y - s i d e e c o n o m i c s " i a l a b m e n g u r a n g i t i n g k a t d a n b e b a n p e r p a j a k a n b a g i g o l o n g a n y a n g b e r p e n -d a p a t a n t i n g g i . D i b a r a p k a n b a b w a m e l a l u i j a l a n i t u j u m l a b t a b u n g a n b e r -t a m b a b ; s e l a n j u t n y a t a b u n g a n ( d i b a r a p k a n ) a k a n d i s a l u r k a n p a d a i n v e s t a s i p r o d u k t i f . P r o s e s i n i a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d a n m e l u a s k a n l a p a n g a n k e r j a , d a n a k h i r n y a p e n e r i m a a n a n g g a a n a k a n n a i k j u g a k a r e n a j u m l a b p a j a k s e c a r a m e n y e l u r u b b e r t a m b a b s e b a g a i b a s i l e k s p a n s i k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i . S e d a n g k a n i n f l a s i a k a n m e r e d a , k a r e n a b e r t a m b a b n y a a r u s b a r a n g d a n j a s a . D a l a m p a d a i t u , p e n g e l u a r a n a n g g a r a n r u t i n b e s e r t a s e g a l a r u p a p e n g e l u a r a n y a n g b e r s i f a t s o s i a l d a n d i a n g g a p t i d a k p r o d u k t i f j u g a b a r u s d i k u r a n g i s e c a r a d r a s t i s .

S e m e n t a r a p r o s e s i n i s e d a n g b e r j a l a n , s a t u s a m a l a i n b a l i t u d i s e r t a i o l e b k e b i j a k s a n a a n m o n e t e r y a n g k e t a t u n t u k m e n g a w a s i d a n m e n g u a s a i a r u s s u p p l y u a n g . P e n g a w a s a n m o n e t e r b u k a n d i d a s a r k a n a t a s p e n g a w a s a n

3 6 8 E K I , V o l . X X I X , N o . 4 , D e c e m b e r 1 9 8 1

k w a n t i t a t i f , m e l a i n k a n d e n g a n m e n y e r a h k a n b i a y a / h a r g a t e n t a n g u a n g (cyst o f money) k e p a d a k e k u a t a n - k e k u a t a n p a s a r u a n g d a n m o d a l . D a l a m l i u b u q -a n i n i l a h m e k a n i s m e t i n g k a t b u n g a d i b e r i p e r a n a n u t a m a d e n g a n m e l e p a s k i n n y a u n t u k m e n c a p a i t i n g k a t n y a s e n d i r i , s e s u a i d e n g a n p e n a w a r a n d a n j. e i m i n t a a n y a n g m e n y a n g k u t p i n j a m a n u a n g ( j a n g k a p e n d e k m a u p u n j a n ^ ^ p a n j a n g ) .

B e r d a s a r k a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i — k e u a n g a n — m o n e t e r y a n g u n g k a p k a n d i a t a s d a n y a n g s e l a m a i n i d i l a k s a n a k a n o l e h p e m e r i n t a h R e a f a i i , m a k a s e l a m a s e b a g i a n b e s a r t a b u n 1 9 8 1 t i n g k a t b u n g a d i A m e r i k a S e r i c a t t e l a b m e m b u b u n g t i n g g i ( s a m p a i m e l a m p a u i 2 0 % p e r t a b u n ) d e n g a n s e g a l ^ a k i b a t b e r a n t a i , y a n g j u g a m e r u g i k a n p e r e k o n o m i a n E r o p a B a r a t d a n b a g i a n -b a g i a n d u n i a l a i n n y a . 4. j

K e l e m a b a n p o k o k y a n g m e l e k a t p a d a m a z b a b s u p p l y - s i d e e c o n o n i i q s b e r k i s a r p a d a p e r m a s a l a h a n d a n p e r t a n y a a n : s a m p a i b e r a p a j a u b j u n l a j b t a b u n g a n i t u m e m a n g a k a n t e r s a l u r k e b i d a n g i n v e s t a s i p r o d u k t i f ; s e l a i n i l u a p a k a b p r o s e s p e n j e l m a a n t a b u n g a n m e n j a d i i n v e s t a s i t e r s e l e n g g a r a k a n d a a m j a n g k a w a k t u r e l a t i f p e n d e k , a t a u k a b s e l a m a w a k t u l a m a y a n g t i d a k m e n e i t u (indefinite period) p a r a c a l o n i n v e s t o r m a s i b r a g u - r a g u d a n m e n u n j u k c a n s u a t u s i k a p " m e n u n g g u d a n m e U b a t d u l u " ( w a i t and see). S e b a b i k l i m i n res-t a s i k i n i m e n g a n d u n g s e r a n g k a i a n f a k t o r k e t i d a k p a s t i a n y a n g b e r b a g a i n i -c a m s i f a t n y a , y a n g s e m u a n y a s a n g a t m e m p e n g a r u h i p a n d a n g a n d a n p e r k u a i n c a l o n i n v e s t o r t e n t a n g p e r k e m b a n g a n m a s a d e p a n . A p a l a g i k a l a u t i n j k a t b u n g a y a n g t i n g g i t e l a b m e n a i k k a n b i a y a p i n j a m a n y a n g s e l a l u d i p e r l u k a n d a l a m i n v e s t a s i p r o y e k - p r o y e k y a n g b e r a r t i .

D a l a m b a l d e m i k i a n m u n g k i n s e k a l i m e r e k a m e r a s a l e b i b b e r f a e d a b d a n 1< b i b a m a n u n t u k m e n d e p o s i t o k a n t a b u n g a n n y a d e n g a n m e n d a p a t b a l a s - j a s a p m e -r i m a a n b u n g a y a n g m e m a d a i ( t e t a p i j e l a s i n v e s t a s i p r o d u k t i f t i d a k t e r w u j i c ) . A t a u p u n , y a n g l e b i b b u r u k l a g i d a l a m s u a t u k e a d a a n r e s e s i a t a u d e p e a , s e b a g i a n t a b u n g a n i t u d i p e r g u n a k a n u n t u k k o n s u m s i b e r l e b i b d e b i b a n j a j i g m e n y o l o k (excessive conspicuous consumption).

B a g a i m a n a p u n j u g a , k e n y a t a a n m e n a n d a k a n b a b w a s a m p a i s e k a t a h g k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i p e m e r i n t a h R e a g a n t i d a k m e m b a w a b a s i l seb; g i i -m a n a s e m u l a d i n y a t a k a n n y a d a n d i d e n g u n g k a n n y a . D a l a m p a d a i t u , w i l a u -p u n t e l a b d i a d a k a n p e n g u r a n g a n d r a s t i s t e r b a d a p b e r b a g a i r u p a p e n g e l u i r m p e m e r i n t a h , t e t a p i d i l a i n p i b a k a n g g a r a n u n t u k p e r s e n j a t a a n s a n g a t d p i u -

4 Lihat juga Tinjauan-tinjauan Triwulan yang dimuat terdahulu tahun ini dalam ip^a-lah E K I : Vol. XXIX, No. 2, juni 1981; Vol. XXIX' No. 3, September 1981

E K I , VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981 3(i9

b e s a r . S e b i n g g a o l e b k a l a n g a n p e m e r i n t a b R e a g a n s e n d i r i t e l a b d i a k u i b a b w a s a s a r a n n y a u n t u k m e n y u s u n s u a t u a n g g a r a n b e r i m b a n g d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 4 t i d a k a k a n t e r c a p a i .

P e r k e m b a n g a n t e r s e b u t m e n d o r o n g k e a r a b m e m p e r c e p a t l a j u p e r t a m -b a b a n u a n g d a l a m p e r e d a r a n , y a n g t e n t u a k a n m e n a m b a b t e k a n a n i n i l a t o r . D a l a m r a n g k a k e b i j a k s a n a a n s e p e r t i y a n g k i n i d i l a k u k a n , s a t u s a m a l a i n b a l i t u a k a n d i t a n g g u l a n g i d e n g a n m e n a i k k a n t i n g k a t b u n g a l a g i u n t u k m e m b e n -d u n g b a b a y a i n f l a s i . K e a d a a n s e a k a n - a k a n b e r a d a d a l a m U n g k a r a n y a n g t a k b e r u j u n g p a n g k a l . I t u l a b l a t a r b e l a k a n g k e k u a t i r a n b a b w a t i n g k a t b u n g a d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t a k a n m e l o n j a k l a g i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , j i k a t i d a k a d a p e r u b a b a n p a d a p o l a k e b i j a k s a n a a n s e k a r a n g .

K e l e s u a n a t a u s t a g n a s i d a l a m p e r k e m b a n g a n e k o n o m i d e n g a n d i s e r t a i o l e b g e j a l a i n f l a s i , s e p e r t i y a n g d i a l a m i d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a m a j u d a l a m d a s a w a r s a 1 9 7 0 s e j a k t a b u n 1 9 7 4 t e l a b d i s e b u t s e c a r a p o p u l e r s e b a g a i "stagflation". N a m p a k n y a u n t u k w a k t u y a n g c u k u p l a m a k u r a n g d i s a d a r i b a b w a f e n o m e n a s t a g f l a t i o n b e r s u m b e r p a d a s e b a b - m u s a b a b k e k u a t a n d c e k u a t a n y a n g l e b i b m e n d a l a m y a n g b e r s i f a t s t r u k t u r a l . D a l a m t a b u n 1 9 7 3 / 7 4 t e l a b t e r j a d i l o n -j a k a n b a r g a m i n y a k b u m i d e n g a n e m p a t k a l i l i p a t , k e m u d i a n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 9 d e n g a n l e b i b d a r i d u a k a b b p a t . S a t u s a m a l a i n b a l i t u m e m b a w a r a m i f i k a s i y a n g s a n g a t l u a s ( a k i b a t p e n g a r u b y a n g b e r c a b a n g - c a b a n g d i b e r b a g a i b i d a n g d a n r a g a m k e g i a t a n ) . T e l a b t e r j a d i p e r u b a b a n - p e r u b a b a n y a n g m e n d a s a r d a n p e r m a n e n p a d a s t r u k t u r b i a y a d i a r g a d i b i d a n g i n d u s t r i d a n d a l a m d u n i a p e r e k o n o m i a n p a d a u m u m n y a . P e r k e m b a n g a n t e r s e b u t m e m b a w a p e r g e s e r a n s t r u k t u r a l a n t a r - i n d u s t r i d a n a n t a r - s e k t o r .

L a g i p u l a , t i n g k a t p r o d u k t i v i t a s d i E r o p a B a r a t d a n d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t s e j a u b a k b i r d a s a w a r s a 1 9 6 0 / a w a l d a s a w a r s a 1 9 7 0 n a m p a k n y a t e l a b m e n u r u n s e c a r a a b s o l u t m a u p u n s e c a r a r e l a t i f , a r t i n y a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n J e p a n g d a n n e g a r a - n e g a g a i n d u s t r i " b a r u " s e p e r t i K o r e a S e l a t a n , T a i w a n , H o n g k o n g , S i n g a p o r e , B r a s i l d a n s e b a g a i n y a . H a l i t u t e r a s a b u k a n b a n y a d i b i d a n g i n d u s t r i r i n g a n ( t e k s t i l , k u l i t , b a r a n g - b a r a n g i n d u s t r i k a r e t , e l e k t r o m k a ) , m e l a i n k a n j u g a d a l a m b e b e r a p a j e n i s i n d u s t r i b e r a t s e p e r t i k e n d a r a a n b e r m o t o r , a l a t - a l a t b e s a r , i n d u s t r i m e s i n , p e n g g a l a n g a n k a p a l d a n i n d u s t r i b a j a . K e t i n g -g a l a n p r o d u k t i v i t a s t e r s e b u t a d a l a b a k i b a t s e r a n g k a i a n b e r b a g a i f a k t o r s e p e r t i p o l a p e n g e l o l a a n {management patterns) y a n g k u r a n g m e m a d a i t u n t u t a n j a m a n , s i k a p k e l a k u k a n g o l o n g a n t e n a g a k e r j a d a n j u g a t e k n o l o g i y a n g sea k a n - a k a n k u r a n g d i p e r b a b a r u i s e c a r a k o n t i n u d i i n d u s t r i - i n d u s t r i b e r s a n g k u t a n .

S e g a l a s e s u a t u y a n g d i s i n g g u n g d i a t a s m e n d a s a r i g e j a l a " s t a g f l a t i o n " d a n p e n a n g g u l a n g a n n y a m e m e r l u k a n s u a t u p e r u b a b a n s t r u k t u r a l . T i a p m a s a l a h y a n g b e r s i f a t s t r u k t u r a l d a n p r o s e s p e n y e s u a i a n n y a t e r b a d a p p e r i m b a n g a n -

370 E K L VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

p e r i m b a n g a n k e a d a a n y a n g s u d a h b e r u b a h s e c a r a p e r m a n e n b i a s a n y a m e n e i -l u k a n m a s a w a k t u y a n g a g a k l a m a . K i n i n e g a r a m e g a r a i n d u s t r i d i E r o p a B i r a t d a n d i A m e r i k a U t a r a s e d a n g b e r a d a d a l a m t a b a p p e n y e s u a i a n s e p e r t i y ^ g d i m a k s u d d i a t a s .

P e r e k o n o m i a n d i Asia Tenggara ( k b u s u s n y a n e g a r a - n e g a r a a n g g j t a A S E A N ) d a n d i Asia Timur ( k b u s u s n y a K o r e a S e l a t a n , T a i w a n , H o n g k o n g , d i s a m p i n g J e p a n g ) 3 s e l a m a d a s a w a r s a 1 9 7 0 s a m p a i d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 8 0 t ( -l a b m e n u n j u k k a n k e m a j u a n y a n g s a n g a t p e s a t . L a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o m n i m a u p u n t i n g k a t k e n a i k a n p e r d a g a n g a n l u a r n e g e r i d a r i n e g a r a - n e g a r a t e r s e ) U t d a l a m p e r i o d e i t u j a u b l e b i b t i n g g i , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n E r o p a B a r a t ( | a ) i A m e r i k a U t a r a m a u p u n d e n g a n b a g i a n - b a g i a n d u n i a l a i n n y a . |

A k a n t e t a p i , m u l a i a w a l t a b u n 1 9 8 1 n e g a r a - n e g a r a d i A s i a T e n g g a r a d a b A s i a T i m u r s a n g a t m e r a s a k a n a k i b a t b u r u k r e s e s i p e r e k o n o m i a n d u n i a . P ; ida u m u m n y a n e g a r a - n e g a r a y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n m e n g a l a m i k e m u n d u r a n d a l a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i m a u p u n d a l a m l a l u l i n t a s p e r d a g a n g a n d a n p e m b a > a: -a n l u a r n e g e r i , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e r k e m b a n g a n t a b u n 1 9 8 0 ; t e r k e c i a i K o r e a S e l a t a n , d i m a n a l a j u p e r t u m b u b a i m y a j u s t r u m e n i n g k a t d a l a m t a l j u p 1 9 8 1 s e t e l a b m e n g a l a m i k e m u n d u r a n d a l a m t a b u n s e b e l u m n y a . |

K e m u n d u r a n d i t a b u n 1 9 8 1 s e p e r t i y a n g t e r l i b a t d i a t a s l a n g s u n g bel r -t a l i a n d e n g a n m e n u r u i m y a e k s p o r y a n g s a n g a t m e m p e n g a r u h i p r o d u k s i I a n p e n d a p a t a n d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n . P e r k e m b a n g a n p a s a r l i i i n e g e r i d a n b a r g a d i p a s a r d u n i a m e n j a d i s a n g a t l e m a b b a g i k o m o d i t i - k o m o b : i n o n - m i n y a k d a n gas b u m i , s e p e r t i d a l a m b a l b a r a n g m i n e r a l ( n i k e l , t e m b i g a , t i m a b ) , d a n b a s i l b u m i ( k a r e t , k o p i , t e b , k o p r a d a n m i n y a k k e l a p a , b i j i s aw: d a n m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t , t a p i o k a ) . S e d a n g k a n e k s p o r b a r a n g - b a r a n g i n d u m e n g a l a m i s i k a p y a n g s e m a k i n p r o t e k s i o n i s d a r i p i b a k n e g a r a - n e g a r a M E ^ d a n A m e r i k a S e r i k a t .

H a m p i r s e m u a n e g a r a d i A s i a T e n g g a r a d a n A s i a T i m u r d a l a m t a l u n 1 9 8 1 m e n g a l a m i d e f i s i t y a n g c u k u p b e s a r p a d a t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n d a l a i p n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n n y a ( t e r k e c u a l i J e p a n g y a n g d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 1 b e r b i s f l u n t u k m e n c a p a i s u r p l u s l a g i l i b a t d i m u k a ) . D e f i s i t - d e f i s i t y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n b a r u s d i t u t u p d e n g a n p e m a s u k a n m o d a l l u a r n e g e r i a t a u d e n g a n p i n j a n j i a | i l u a r n e g e r i a t a u d e n g a n p e n g g u n a a n s e b a g i a n c a d a n g a n d e v i s a , a t a u p u n n g a n l a n g k a b k e b i j a k s a n a a n i t u .

K e m u n d u r a n d a l a m l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n d a n e k s p o r , s e l a i n m e n g u r a n ^ p e n e r i m a a n d e v i s a d a n p e n e r i m a a n a n g g a r a n p e m e r i n t a b , j u g a m e m p e r t a j a m

5 Pada tahap ini Korea Selatan, Taiwan, Hongkong dan juga Singapore diantara n !ga-ra-negara anggota ASEAN, sudah digolongkan dalam Kategori "newly industrial zed developing countries" (NIDC's).

i t l i

d c -

E K I , VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981 71

b e b a n p e n g a n g g u r a n . B a g i n e g a r a - n e g a r a p r o d u s e n / e k s p o r t i r k o m o d i t i p e r t a n i a n h a l i t u s a n g a t t e r a s a k a r e n a b e r k u r a n g n y a p e n d a p a t a n p a r a p r o d u s e n , k b u s u s n y a b a g i g o l o n g a n p e t a n i k e c i l .

P e r k i r a a n t e n t a n g t a b u n 1 9 8 2 ( y a n g p a d a s aa t i n i m a s i b b e r s i f a t s a n g a t s e m e n t a r a d a n m e m e r l u k a n p e n g a m a t a n l e b i b l a n j u t d a n p e n e l a a h a n l e b i b m e n d a l a m ) m e n u n j u k k a n b a b w a n e g a r a - n e g a r a d i A s i a T e n g g a r a d a n A s i a T i m u r d a p a t m e m p e r t a h a n k a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i n y a p a d a t i n g k a t y a n g s a m a s e p e r t i d i t a b u n 1 9 8 1 ; b a b k a n d i b e b e r a p a n e g a r a i n d u s t r i " b a r a " d i p e r k i r a k a n a k a n a d a p e r b a i k a n l a g i , s e p e r t i d i S i n g a p u r a , T a i w a n d a n H o n g k o n g .

L a j u P e r t u m b u h a n E k o n o m i d i B e b e r a p a N e g a r a A s i a T e n g g a r a d a n A s i a T i m u r

% G D P


1 9 8 2 * ) 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 * )

A S E A N I n d o n e s i a ' 7 6 . . 9 , 6 7 , 0 6 , 5 - 7 , 0 M a l a y s i a 7 , 9 8 , 0 7 , 0 6 , 5 - 7 , 0 F i l i p i n a 6 , 2 5 , 4 4 , 5 5 , 5 S i n g a p o r e 8 , 4 1 0 , 2 9 , 0 9 , 5 T h a i l a n d 7 , 7 6 3 6 , 0 6 , 0

N I D C ' s K o r e a S e l a t a n 1 0 , 3 5 , 7 7 , 1 7 , 0 T a i w a n 6 3 5 , 5 8 , 0 H o n g k o n g 9 , 4 1 0 , 0 8 , 0 8 , 5

* ) P e r k i r a a n k a s a r d a n s a n g a t s e m e n t a r a

L a j u i n f l a s i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 1 p a d a u m u m n y a m e n u r u n , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 8 0 ( t e r k e c u a l i K o r e a S e l a t a n d a n S i n g a p o r e ) . S e l a i n d a r i k e b i j a k s a n a a n fiskal-moneter y a n g u m u m n y a b e r s i f a t k e t a t , m a k a m e n u r u n n y a i n f l a s i a d a s a n g k u t - p a u t n y a p u l a d e n g a n e f e k k o n t r a k s i m o n e t e r b e r b u -b u n g d e n g a n e k s p o r y a n g m e n j a d i b e r k u r a n g .

372 E K I , Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

L a j u I n f l a s i d i B e b e r a p a N e g a r a A s i a T e n g g a r a d a n A s i a T i m u r ( % , b e r d a s a r k a n I n d d c s H a r g a K o n s u m e n )

A S E A N

I n d o n e s i a M a l a y s i a F i l i p i n a T h a i l a n d S i n g a p o r e

N I D C ' s

K o r e a S e l a t a n H o n g k o n g T a i w a n


1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 9

2 0 , 1 7 , 3

1 3 , 3 9 , 5 5 , 5

1 9 , 5 7 , 9

1 9 8 0

1 6 , 5 6 , 7

1 7 , 5 1 9 , 7

8 , 5

2 0 , 0 1 5 , 5 2 0 , 0

1 9 8 1

7 , 1 9 , 0

1 1 , 0 2 2 , 0

9 , 5

2 4 , 0 1 4 , 0 1 4 , 0

1 9 8 2

1 3 , 0 7 , 0

1 3 , 0 1 8 , 0

7 , 0

1 8 , 0 1 0 , 0

9 , 0

* ) P e r k i r a a n k a s a r d a n s a n g a t s e m e n t a r a .

1.2. P e r k e m b a n g a n P e f e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a . ' P e r k e m b a n g a n p e r e k o n o m i a n d u n i a s e p e r t i d i u n g k a p k a n d i m u k a

t e l a b m e m b a w a p e n g a r u b y a n g b e r a r t i t e r b a d a p p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s a H a r g a k o m o d i t i - k o m o d i t i s e p e r t i d i a n t a r a n y a : k a r e t , k a y u , , k o p i , k e p i b s a w i t , t e b , l a d a t e l a b m e n u r u n . D e m i k i a n p u l a m e n g e n a i b a r a n g - b a r a n g r i i n e r a l s e p e r t i n i k e l , t e m b a g a d a n a k b i r - a k b i r i n i j u g a t i m a b . S a t u s a m a b i r b a l i t u m e m u k u l e k s p o r k i t a d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i d a n gas a l a m .

D a l a m p a d a i t u p e m e r i n t a b s e n d i r i t e l a b m e l a k u k a n b e b e r a p a l a n g k d t i n d a k a n y a n g b e r d a s a r k a n p e r t i m b a n g a n - p e r t i m b a n g a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n t e r t < n t u m e m b a w a a k i b a t u n t u k m e m b a t a s i / m e n g u r a n g i e k s p o r s e p e r t i d a l a m h a k a y u g e l o n d o n g a n , m i n y a k s a w i t , u d a n g s e g a r / b e k u , s e m e n , p u p u k u r p U n t u k m a s a 8 b u l a n p e r t a m a 1 9 8 1 d i p e r o l e h g a m b a r a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t

E K L Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

P e r u b a h a n d a l a m 8 b u l a n p e r t a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 1 d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n

8 b u l a n p e r t a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 0

B e r a t ( t o n ) N i l a i ( 1 0 0 0 d o U a r A S )

1 Olal cKSpOi - 1 2 , 7 8 % 0 , 4 6 % iVi l l i ydJv I l l C U l d i l U a l l l l a d U - l m d i l l i y d - 2 , 7 1 % 1 2 , 5 5 % G a s a l a m - 6 , 8 0 % 1 2 3 8 % D i l u a r m i n y a k d a n G a s a l a m - 3 6 , 9 5 % - 2 8 , 1 1 % D i l u a r m i n y a k , gas a l a m , m i n y a k s a w i t , k a y u , s e m e n , p u p u k u r e a d a n u d a n g . - 2 2 , 4 8 % - 1 5 3 1 %

E k s p o r d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i d a n gas a l a m s e l u r u h n y a d e n g a n 3 7 % d a l a m b a l b e r a t d a n 2 8 % d a l a m b a l n i l a i . K a l a u d i s i s i b k a n k o m o d i t i - k o m o d i t i y a n g e k s p o r n y a m e m a n g s e n g a j a d i b a t a s i o l e b b e b e r a p a t i n d a k a n p e m e r i n t a b , m a k a d a p a t d i k a t a k a n b a b w a p e n u m n a n e k s p o r d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i d a n gas a l a m y a n g d i p e n g a r a b i o l e b resesi i a l a b 2 3 % d a l a m b a l b e r a t d a n 1 5 % d a l a m b a l n i l a i .

S e j a u b y a n g m e n y a n g k u t n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n a d a 3 b a l p o k o k y a n g m e n o n j o l . P e r t a m a , n i l a i e k s p o r m i n y a k t i d a k m e n i n g k a t . K e d u a , n i l a i e k s p o r d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i d a q gas a l a m m e n u r u n . K e t i g a , i m p o r d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i d a n gas a l a m t e r n s m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n k e n a i k a n s e k i t a r 2 5 % p e r t a b u n . P e r k e m b a n g a n i n i m e m a k a i d e v i s a y a n g c u k u p b e s a r s e b i n g g a c a d a n g a n d e v i s a y a n g a d a m u n g k i n n k a n t e r p a k a i u n t u k i m p o r . P e r k e m b a n g a n t e r s e b u t d i a t a s t e n t u m e m p e n g a r a b i A P B N . P e n d a p a t a n d a r i m i n y a k b u m i d i p e r k i r a k a n t i d a k n a i k s e d a n g k a n p e n e r i m a a n d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i n a i k d e n g a n 2 0 % s a m p a i 3 0 % . H a l i t u b e r a r t i b a b w a A P B N b a n y a m a m p u u n t u k n a i k d e n g a n 6 % s a m p a i 9 % .

W a l a u p u n f a k t o r - f a k t o r d i l u a r n e g e r i k u r a n g m e n g u n t u n g k a n p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a , n a m u n k e k u a t a n d c e k u a t a n d i d a l a m n e g e r i m a s i b d a p a t m e m p e r t a h a n k a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i y a n g c u k u p t i n g g i , y a i t u s e k i t a r 7 % . S e k t o r - s e k t o r s e p e r t i p e r t a n i a n ( t e m t a m a s u b s e k t o r p a n g a n ) , k o n s t m k s i , i n d u s t r i d a n p e n g a n g k u t a n m a s i b t u m b u b d e n g a n l a j u y a n g m e m a d a i . P e r k e m b a n g a n t e r s e b u t m e n o l o n g p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i s e c a r a k e s e l u r u b a n .


I I . Beberapa Indikator Perkembangan Produksi

II . 1. Perkembangan Produksi Minyak Bumi

S e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 p r o d u k s i m i n y a k b u m i I n d o n e s i a m e n i n g k i t d e n g a n r a t a - r a t a 6 , 8 % p e r t a b u n . P a d a T a b e l 1 d a p a t d i l i b a t b a b w a m u l d d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 7 8 p r o d u k s i m i n y a k k i t a m e n u r u n . P r o d u k s i y a n g m e n u n J n i n i d i s e b a b k a n o l e b b e r k u r a n g n y a k e g i a t a n e k s p l o r a s i d a n p e n g e m b a n ^ n p r j a d u k s i s e j a k t a b u n 1 9 7 6 , s e t e l a b s y a r a t - s y a r a t k o n t r a k b a g i b a s i l d i r u b a b o l P e m e r i n t a b R e p u b l i k I n d o n e s i a y a n g m e n e t a p k a n b a b w a p e m b a g i a n k e u i n t u n g a n m e n j a d i 8 5 b a n d i n g 1 5 . K e m u d i a n s i k a p p e r u s a b a a n - p e r u s a b a a n r d n y a k b e r u b a b d a l a m r a n g k a p e r k e m b a n g a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l s e l a n j u t n y a .

N a m p a k n y a u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 1 i i u p r o d u k s i m i n y a k I n d o n e s i a a k a n i b e n i n g k a t l a g i . P a d a 4 b u l a n p e r t a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 1 p r o d u k s i k i t a m e n c a p a i 1 9 - 1 3 j u t a b a r r e l s a t a u 1 ,6 j u t a b a r r e l s p e r b a r i . K e n a i k a n p r o d u k s i m i n y a k d i b a r k a n b i s a m e m e n u b i k e b u t u b a n B B M ( B a b a n B a k a r M i n y a k ) d i d a l a m n e g e i i .

II.2. Perkembangan Produksi Beras

D a r i Tabel 2 d a p a t d i l i b a t b a b w a s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 , p r o d u k s i b e r a s s e l a l u m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n k e n a i k a n r a t a - r a t a s e b e s a r 4 , 5 % p e r t a l LU|n. K e n a i k a n p r o d u k s i t e r s e b u t j a u b l e b i b t i n g g i , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n k e n a k ^ n p e n d u d u k r a t a - r a t a u n t u k p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a y a i t u s e b e s a r 23%. S e l a i j n a m a s a R e p e U t a I ( 1 9 6 8 / 1 9 6 9 s a m p a i 1 9 7 3 / 1 9 7 4 ) k o n s u m s i b e r a s p e r k p j i t a a d a l a b 1 1 0 k g d a n p a d a a k b i r P e l i t a 1 k o n s u m s i b e r a s m e n c a p a i 1 4 0 k ; ^ e r k a p i t a . S e m a s a P e l i t a 1 p e r b a t i a n P e m e r i n t a b m e m a n g d i p u s a t k a n p a d a }ce-n a i k a n p r o d u k s i b e r a s d e n g a n j a l a n i n t e n s i f i k a s i a n t a r a l a i n m e l a l u i p e r b ; l i k a n i r i g a s i d a n p e n e r a p a n t e b n o l o g i b a r u .

D a l a m p r o g r a m i n t e n s i f i k a s i s e p e r t i B I M A S . I N M A S d a n p r o g r a n j - p r o g r a m y a n g s e r u p a B a n k I n d o n e s i a u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 7 9 / 1 9 8 0 m e n y e d i a k a n k r e -d i t s e b e s a r R p . 4 1 9 m i l y a r y a n g d i k e l u a r k a n u n t u k s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n d a n p p m -b u a t a n i r i g a s i . D a l a m P e l i t a I I I t e r j a d i p e r g e s e r a n y a n g c u k u p d r a s t i s p a d a s t r a t e g i p r e d j i k s i b e r a s , k i n i p e r b a t i a n d i a l i b k a n p a d a p r o g r a m e x t e n s i f i k a s i a r e a l p e r t i i j i a n . B e b e r a p a a r e a l p e r s a w a b a n b a r u d i b u k a d i b e b e r a p a t e m p a t d i w i l a y a m l i j i d o -n e s i a . D i s a m p i n g p r o g r a m - p r o g r a m i n t e n s i f i k a s i d a n e x t e n s i f i k a s i , P e m e r i n t a b j u g a m e n j a l a n k a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n s u b s i s i b a r g a b e r a s d e n ^ n t u j u a n a g a r p p r b e -d a a n y a n g t e r l a l u m e n y o l o k a n t a r a b a r g a b e r a s i m p o r d e n g a n b e r a s p r > 4 u k s i d a l a m n e g e r i d a p a t d i j e m b a t a n i . U n t u k t a b u n 1 9 7 9 / 1 9 8 0 P e m e r i n t a l m e m -b e r i k a n s u b s i d i u n t u k b e r a s s e b e s a r R p . 2 0 5 m i l y a r .

E K I , VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981 375

D a l a m t a h u n 1 9 8 0 p r o d u k s i b e r a s I n d o n e s i a m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 1 3 % y a i t u d a r i 1 7 ^ 1 8 r i b u t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 9 m e n j a d i 2 0 ^ 4 6 r i b u t o n d i t a h u n 1 9 8 0 . I m p o r b e r k u r a n g d e n g a n 4 2 % y a i t u d a r i 2 , 6 j u t a t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 9 m e n j a d i 1,5 j u t a t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 8 0 . U n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 1 d i p e r k i r a k a n p r o d u k s i b e r a s m a s i b a k a n t e r u s n a i k d e n g a n 9 % y a i t u d a r i 2 0 ^ 4 6 j u t a t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 8 0 m e n j a d i 2 2 , 0 6 8 j u t a t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 8 1 . D e n g a n k e n a i k a n p r o d u k s i b e r a s s e l a m a b e b e r a p a t a b u n y a n g s u d a b , m a k a i m p o r b e r a s u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 1 d i p e r k i r a k a n d a p a t d i k u r a n g n i d e n g a n s e k i t a r 6 6 % , y a i t u d a r i 1,5 j u t a t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 8 0 m e n j a d i 0 , 5 j u t a t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 8 1 .

D a l a m p a d a i t u , m e n i n g k a t n y a p r o d u k s i b e r a s m e n i m b u l k a n m a s a l a h p u l a y a i t u m e n g e n a i k u r a n g n y a t e m p a t p e n y i m p a n a n m a u p u n c a r a p e n y i m -

T a b e l 1 P r o d u k s i M i n y a k B u m i D i I n d o n e s i a

1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 1

T a h u n J u m l a h P r o d u k s i K e n a i k a n ( b a r r e l s ) ( % )

1 9 7 0 3 1 1 . 5 5 1 . 8 3 4 1 9 7 1 3 2 5 . 6 7 2 . 5 0 0 4 , 5 1 9 7 2 3 9 5 . 5 8 0 . 8 2 6 2 1 , 5 1 9 7 3 4 8 8 . 5 3 6 . 2 3 0 2 3 , 5 1 9 7 4 5 0 1 . 8 3 7 . 8 0 0 2 , 7 1 9 7 5 4 7 6 . 8 5 4 . 9 5 1 5 , 0 1 9 7 6 5 5 0 3 1 8 . 6 3 6 1 5 , 4 1 9 7 7 6 1 5 . 1 2 2 . 7 7 7 \ J - 1 1 , 8 1 9 7 8 5 9 6 . 6 9 8 4 2 0 * f - 3 , 0 1 9 7 9 5 8 0 . 4 4 6 . 6 5 8 2 , 7 1 9 8 0 5 7 6 . 9 6 9 . 0 1 4 0 , 6 0 , 6

1 9 8 1 1 9 4 . 8 2 8 . 2 2 5 ^ )

S u m b e r : D i o l a h d a r i B P S , I n d i k a t o r E k o n o m i , J u U 1 9 8 1 . 1 ) D e p a r t e m e n P e r t a m b a n g a n , p r o d u k s i s a m p a i d e n g a n b u l a n

A p r i l t a b u n 1 9 8 1 .


p a n a n y a n g t e p a t y a n g m e m e r l u k a n t e h n o l o g i t e r s e n d i r l y a n g n a m p a k n y a b< -l u m k i t a k u a s a i s e p e n u h n y a . W a l a u p u n s a s a r a n P e m e r i n t a h m e n g e n a i c a d a n j -a n b e r a s b e r k i s a r p a d a 5 j u t a t o n , a k a n t e t a p i s a m p a i p e r t e n g 3 b a n t a b u n 1 9 8 i c a d a n g a n b e r a s I n d o n e s i a b a r u m e n c a p a i 2 , 1 j u t a t o n .

I I . 3 . P e r k e m b a n g a n P r o d u k s i P e r t a n i a n T e r p e n t i n g

T a n a m a n p e r t a n i a n y a n g t e r p e n t i n g m e l i p u t i t a n a m a n b a b a n m a k a n a n s e p e r t b e r a s , p a d i , p a l a w i j a , s a y u r - m a y u r d a n b u a b - b u a b a n , s e r t a t a n a m a n p e r k e b u r a n y a n g h a s i l n y a s e b a g i a n b e s a r m e r u p a k a n k o m o d i t i e k s p o r , d i a n t a r a n y a k i -r e t , k o p i , t e b , c o k l a t , m i n y a k d a n b i j i k e l a p a s a w i t d a n s e b a g a i n y a . U n t u k t a n a m a n b a b a n m a k a n a n m a k a d a l a m b a g i a n 11 .2 d i m u k a t e l a b d i u n g k a p k a n m e n g e n a i p e r k e m b a n g a n p r o d u k s i b e r a s . D a l a m b a g i a n s u b 1 1 3 u i p e r b a t i a n k i t a d i t u j u k a n p a d a p r o d u k s i b e b e r a p a j e n i s t a n a m a n p e r k e b u n a i

T a b e l 2

P r o d u k s i D a n I m p o r B e r a s D i I n d o n e s i a 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0

T a b u n P r o d u k s i ( 0 0 0 t o n s )

K e n a i k a n P r o s i ( % )

I m p o r ( 0 0 0 t o n s )

K e n a i k a n I m p o r ( % )

1 9 7 0

1 9 7 1

1 9 7 2

1 9 7 3

1 9 7 4

1 9 7 5

1 9 7 6

1 9 7 7

1 9 7 8

1 9 7 9

1 9 8 0

1 9 8 1

1 3 . 1 4 0

1 3 . 7 2 4

1 3 . 1 8 3

1 4 . 6 0 7

1 5 . 2 7 6

1 5 . 1 8 5

1 5 . 8 4 5

1 5 . 8 7 6

1 7 . 5 2 5

1 7 . 9 1 8

2 0 . 2 4 6

2 2 , 0 6 8

1 )

3 )

4 , 4

4 , 0

1 0 , 8

4 , 6

0 , 6

4 3 0 , 2

1 0 , 4

2 , 2

1 3 , 0

9

7 6 4

5 2 4

1 . 2 2 0

1 . 2 2 5

1 . 1 3 7

6 7 0

1 . 5 0 6

2 3 0 3

1 . 2 7 7

2 . 5 8 0

1 . 5 0 0

5 0 0 4 )

2 )

3 1 , 4

1 3 2 , 8

0 , 4

7 3

4 1 , 1

1 2 4 , 8

5 3 , 0

4 4 , 6

1 0 2 , 0

4 1 3

6 6 , 7

S u m b e r : D a t a C o n s u l t N o . 1 5 8 1 ) B P S , I n d i k a t o r E k o n o m i , M e i t a b u n 1 9 8 1

, ,, ,^ 2 ) D a t a C o n s u l t N o . 1 5 8 3 ) A n g k a p e r k i r a a n 4 ) A n g k a p e r k i r a a n

E K I , Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981 3 7

y a n g s e b a g i a n b e s a r m e r u p a k a n b a b a n e k s p o r , l i b a t T a b e l 3 . D a l a m t a b e l t e r s e b u t t e r l i b a t p e r k e m b a n g a n p r o d u k s i b e b e r a p a k o m o d i t i p e r k e b u n a n :

(1) Karet

P r o d u k s i k a r e t s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n t i n g k a t k e n a i k a n r a t a - r a t a 1 3 % p e r t a b u n . M e n u r u t D e p a r t e m e n P e r d a g a n g a n d a n K o p e r a s i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 7 9 p r o d u k s i k a r e t a l a m I n d o n e s i a b e r j u m l a b s e k i t a r 8 5 0 r i b u t o n , d i a n t a r a n y a 5 7 0 r i b u t o n b a s i l p e r k e b u n a n r a k y a t s e d a n g s i s a n y a b a s i l p e r k e b u n a n b e s a r .

P r o d u k s i k a r e t a l a m m a s i b m e m p u n y a i p r o s p e k c e r a b d a l a m j a n g k a p a n j a n g o l e b k a r e n a d i p e r k i r a k a n b a b w a k o n s u m s i k a r e t d u n i a m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 4 % p e r t a b u n . K a r e t a l a m d a l a m b a r g a n y a k i n i a k a n d a p a t b e r s a i n g d e n g a n b a r g a k a r e t s i n t e t i s . D i I n g g e r i s , d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 7 8 b a r g a k a r e t s i n t e t i s s u d a b m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 2 0 9 % d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 7 2 , d a n d i I t a l i a d a l a m w a k t u y a n g s a m a k e n a i k a n i t u m e n c a p a i 2 2 6 % .

(2) Kopi

P r o d u k s i k o p i I n d o n e s i a d a r i p e r k e b u n a n b e s a r m e n g a l a m i k e n a i k a n r a t a - r a t a s e b e s a r 7 3 % s e t i a p t a b u n s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 . S e d a n g k a n p r o d u k s i k o p i s e h i r u b n y a ( t e r m a s u k p r o d u k s i p e r k e b u n a n r a k y a t ) s e l a m a 5 t a b u n t e r a k b i r m e n i n g k a t d a r i 1 6 0 r i b u t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 5 m e n j a d i 2 2 3 r i b u t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 9 , a t a u n a i k d e n g a n 3 9 % .

D a l a m p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a e k s p o r k o p i m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 7 2 % , d a r i 1 2 5 r i b u t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 5 m e n j a d i 2 2 0 r i b u t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 9 . S e b a g i a n b e s a r p r o d u k s i k o p i I n d o n e s i a a d a l a b u n t u k e k s p o r s e d a n g s i s a n y a d i g u n a k a n u n t u k k o m s u m s i d a l a m n e g e r i .

S e j a k d i t e t a p k a i m y a k u o t a e k s p o r o l e b I . C . O . ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o f f e e O r g a n i z a t i o n ) e k s p o r k o p i I n d o n e s i a s a n g a t m e n u r u n , s e b i n g g a b a r g a k o p i d i p a s a r a n d a l a m n e g e r i s a n g a t m e r o s o t , w a l a u p u n u s a b a m e n g e k s p o r k o p i k e n e g a r a n o n J c u o t a t e r u s d i l a k u k a n .

(3) Minyak Kelapa Sawit dan Biji Sawit 6

P r o d u k s i m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t d a n b i j i s a w i t u n t u k p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n r a t a - r a t a 1 2 , 4 % u n t u k m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t d a n 9 , 7 % u n t u k

6) Peilhal Masalah Minyak Nabati, Ifliat pembahasannya dalam linjauan Triwulan dalam Majalah EKI, Vol. X X K , No. 1, Maiet 1981.

378 E K I VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

b i j i s a w i t . L u a s a r e a l k e l a p a s a w i t d i I n d o n e s i a s e l u a s 2 5 0 . 1 1 6 b a , d i m a n a 6 5 , 4 % n y a d i m i l i k i o l e b P T / P N P e r k e b u n a n d a n s i s a n y a 3 4 , 6 % d i k u a s a i o l e i P e m s a b a a n S w a s t a . S a m p a i d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 7 9 a d a 7 3 p e r k e b u n a n y a n g m e n ^ a s i l k a n m i n y a k d i m a n a s e b a g i a n b e s a r j u m l a b i t u t e r l e t a k d i S u m a t e r a U t a r a , s e d a n g k a p y a n g l a i n n y a d i J a w a B a r a t .

D i p e r k i r a k a n d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 p r o d u k s i m i n y a k s a w i t I n d o n e s i a a k a l n m e n c a p a i 1 , 0 j u t a t o n . H a l t e r s e b u t m e r u p a k a n b a s i l p e r l u a s a n p e r k e b u n a n d a n p a b r i k ^ a b r i k m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t ( d e b P N P I d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s ebesa r 8 6 . 4 0 0 t o n p e r t a b u n , P T P I I d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i 3 2 . 0 0 0 t o n p e r t a b u n , s e r t a P T P V I d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i 4 7 , 1 6 0 t o n p e r t a b u n . P a b r i k - p a b r i k m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t t e r s e b u t b a r u a k a n m u l a i b e r p r o d u k s i d i -1 a m t a b u n 1 9 8 3 .

P a d a s a a t i n i 9 0 % d a r i s e l u r u b p r o d u k s i m i n y a k k e l a p a a d a l a b u n t u k k o n s u m s i d a l a m n e g e r i , d a n s i s a n y a d i e k s p o r . S e b a g i a n b e s a r e k s p o r m i n y a c k e l a p a s a w i t I n d o n e s i a d i t u j u k a n k e I r a k , B e l a n d a d a n P a k i s t a n , s e d a n g k a i s i s a n y a k e I n d i a , J e r m a n B a r a t , U S A , K e n y a , I n g g e r i s , K a n a d a d a n J e p a n g .

(4) Gula Tebu

P r o d u k s i g u l a t e b u s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 m e n u n j u k k a n t i n g k a t k e n a i ( -a n r a t a - r a t a s ebesa r 5 , 7 % p e r t a b u n . K e n a i k a n p r o d u k s i t e r s e b u t m e n y a n g k i t p r o d u k s i p e r k e b u n a n b e s a r y a n g d i k e l o l a o l e b P T / P N P e r k e b u n a n . K i r a d d i a 8 0 % d a r i s e l u m b p r o d u k s i g u l a d i I n d o n e s i a d i b a s i l k a n o l e b P N P / P T P , s e d a 4 g s i s a n y a o l e b p e r k e b u n a n r a k y a t .

A k b i r - a k b i r i n i b a r g a g u l a d i b e b e r a p a p a s a r d i d a l a m n e g e r i m e n g a l a r i u k e n a i k a n a n t a r a R p . 6 0 0 / k g s a m p a i R p . 7 0 0 / k g y a n g k e m u d i a n m e n u m n l a ^ s a m p a i R p . 5 5 0 / k g . K e n a i k a n b a r g a g u l a t e r s e b u t d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a a d a n y a p e r k i r a a n p a d a p i b a k b e b e r a p a k a l a n g a n p e d a g a n g b a b w a p r o d u k s i g u l a t a b u n 1 9 8 1 a k a n m e n u m n . N a m p a k n y a k a l a n g a n - k a l a n g a n i t u t e l a b m u l j a i m e n i m b u n g u l a s e b i n g g a t e r j a d i k e n a i k a n b a r g a .

U n t u k m e n g a t a s i b a l i n i B U L O G a k a n m e n a m b a b i m p o r g u l a s e b a n y i k 1 6 0 r i b u t o n d i a t a s r e n c a n a s e m u l a ( y a i t u 4 5 0 r i b u t o n ) , s e b i n g g a i m p o r g u l a I n d o n e s i a u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 0 / 1 9 8 1 m e n j a d i 6 0 0 r i b u t o n . S a t u s a m a l a i n b a l i t u j a u b m e l e b i b i p e r k i r a a n D e p a r t e m e n P e r t a n i a n t e n t a n g i m p o r g u l a , y a i u b a n y a s e b a n y a k 3 0 s a m p a i 3 6 r i b u t o n u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 0 . M e n u m t B U L O G p r o d u k s i g u l a s e l u m b n y a u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 0 b e r j u m l a b I 3 j u t a t o n , s e d a i g -k a n m e n u m t D e p a r t e m e n P e r t a n i a n s e b e s a r 1 , 7 5 j u t a t o n . U n t u k p e r i o d e j a n g k a p a n j a n g a k a n d i b u k a s e j u m l a b p a b r i k g u l a b a m d i l u a r J a w a , s e d a n g k a n b e b e r a p a p a b r i k g u l a d i J a w a a k a n d i r e b a b i U t a s i d e n g a n c e m i k i a n d i b a r a p k a n b a b w a p r o d u k s i y a n g m a k s i m u m a k a n b i s a d i c a p a i .

EKI, VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981 3 7 f

<

X

z 0

3

CO 00

. T a b e l 3

P r o d u k s i T a n a m a n P e r k e b u n a n d i I n d o n e s i a 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0

( 1 0 0 0 t o n )

T a h u n

K a r e t K o p i T e h C o k l a t M i n y a k S a w i t B i j i S a w i t G u l a T e b u T a h u n

P r o d u k s i % * ' P r o d u k s i % •* P r o d u k s i % •» P r o d u k s i , %*• P r o d u k s i % P r o d u k s i P r o d u k s i

1 9 7 0 2 3 8 , 2 1 6 , 2 4 2 , 9 wT

0 1,2 2 1 6 , 5 4 8 , 5 7 1 3 3

1 9 7 1 2 3 8 , 7 0 , 2 1 9 , 4 1 9 , 8 4 7 , 5 1 0 , 7 1 ,4 1 6 , 7 2 4 8 , 4 1 4 , 1 5 6 , 1 1 5 , 7 8 3 4 , 0 1 6 , 9

1 9 7 2 2 3 6 , 3 • 1 , 0 2 2 , 4

2

1 5 , 5 4 8 , 3 1,7 1 ,5 7 , 1 2 6 9 , 4 8 , 5 5 9 , 2 5 5 8 8 9 3 6 6

1 9 7 3 2 4 6 , 5 4 , 3 1 0 , 1 - 5 4 , 9 5 3 , 1 1 0 1 ,3 • 1 3 , 3 2 9 0 , 0 7 , 6 6 4 , 1 8 , 2 8 1 9 , 8 - 7 , 8

1 9 7 4 2 4 8 , 7 0 , 9 1 6 , 2 6 0 , 4 5 0 , 1 5 , 6 2 , 6 1 0 0 3 5 1 , 1 2 1 , 1 7 4 , 2 1 5 , 8 1 0 2 4 , 8 2 5 , 0

1 9 7 5 2 4 4 , 1 - 1 , 8 1 5 , 2 - 6 , 2 5 5 , 3 1 0 , 4 3 , 2 2 3 , 1 4 1 1 , 4 1 7 , 2 8 3 , 2 1 2 , 5 1 0 2 9 , 9 0 , 5

1 9 7 6 2 4 6 , 8 1,1 1 5 , 2 0 5 9 , 7 8 , 0 3 , 0 - 6 , 3 4 3 3 , 9 5 , 5 8 2 , 1 - 1 , 7 1 0 5 5 , 7 2 2 , 5

1 9 7 7 2 5 2 , 2 2 , 2 1 7 , 1 1 1 2 , 5 6 2 , 8 5 , 2 3 , 9 3 0 4 9 7 , 4 1 4 , 6 9 2 , 3 1 2 , 4 1 1 0 4 , 8 4 , 7

1 9 7 8 2 6 9 , 6 6 , 8 1 6 , 6 1 - 2 , 9 7 1 , 7 1 4 , 2 4 , 3 1 0 , 3 5 2 5 , 0 5 , 5 9 9 , 4 7 , 7 1 1 2 5 , 8 1,9

1 9 7 9 2 7 3 , 6 1 ,6 1 6 , 4 - 1 , 2 7 1 , 8 0 , 1 7 , 4 7 2 , 1 5 9 9 , 9 1 4 , 3 1 1 3 , 4 1 4 , 1 1 2 7 5 , 4 1 3 , 3

1 9 8 0 2 8 1 , 0 2 , 7 2 1 , 1 2 8 , 7 7 8 , 2 8 , 9 8 , 3 1 2 , 2 6 9 1 , 0 1 5 , 2 1 2 1 , 1 6 , 8 1 1 8 8 , 3 - 6 , 8

1 9 8 1 * ) 1 1 0 , 6 0 , 1 3 3 , 8 2 , 7 2 0 5 , 0 3 6 , 5 1 3 8 , 2

S u m b e r : D i o l a h d a r i d a l a B P S , I n d i k a t o r E k o n o m i , J u l l 1 9 8 1 .

• ) D a t a s e m e n t a r a J a n u a r i - M e l 1 9 8 1

) P r o s e n t a s e k e n a i k a n p r o d o k s i .

t:i.:f.

11.4. Perkembangan Komoditi Perindustrian Terpenting

P a d a Tabel 4 t e r l i h a t p e r k e m b a n g a n b e b e r a p a k o m o d i t i p e r i n d u s t r i a n , d i a n -t a r a n y a s e m e n , r o k o k , k e r t a s d a n p u p u k s e p e r t i y a n g d i u r a i k a n d i b a w a b i n i .

(1) Semen • f ' - ' f ^ : . " ' \

S e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 — 1 9 8 0 p r o d u k s i s e m e n m e n g a l a m i k e n a i k a n d e n g a n r a t a • r a t a 2 7 , 5 % p e r t a b u n . E k s p o r s e m e n I n d o n e s i a d i m u l a i d i t a b u n 1 9 7 8 d a n sel a m a 3 t a b u n t e r a k b i r e k s p o r t e r s e b u t m e n u n j u k k a n p e r k e m b a n g a n s e b a g a b e r i k u t : t a b u n 1 9 7 8 s e b e s a r 4 2 , 7 r i b u t o n a t a u 1 0 % d a r i p r o d u k s i ; t a b u i 1 9 7 9 s e b e s a r 4 5 8 ^ r i b u t o n a t a u 1 0 , 4 % d a r i p r o d u k s i ; t a b u n 1 9 8 0 s ebesa 4 9 8 r i b u t o n a t a u 9 , 5 % d a r i p r o d u k s i . E k s p o r s e m e n I n d o n e s i a d i t u j u k a n h M u a n g t b a i , I n d i a , S r i l a n g k a d a n s i s a n y a k e S i n g a p u r a , H o n g k o n g d a n S a u d A r a b i a .

S e b e n a r n y a , p e n i n g k a t a n e k s p o r t i d a k s e b e r a p a . W a l a u d e m i k i a n , e k s p o r i t u t e t a p d i l a k s a n a k a n d e n g a n p e r t i m b a n g a n , a n t a r a l a i n u n t u k m e m p e r -t a b a n k a n e k s i s t e n s i s e m e n I n d o n e s i a k e p a s a r a n l u a r n e g e r i s e b i n g g a b i l a s u a t i i s a a t k e l a k I n d o n e s i a m a m p u u n t u k m e n g e k s p o r l e b i b b a n y a k , m a k a tidal: a k a n s u b t u n t u k m e n g e m b a n g k a n p e m a s a r a n . S e b a g i a n b e s a r p r o d u k s i s e m e n k i t a d i g u n a k a n u n t u k k o n s u m s i d a l a m n e g e r i , o l e b k a r e n a k e b u t u b a n d a l a m n e g e r i s e m a k i n m e n i n g k a t , d a l a m r a n g k a p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g s e d a n g b e r j a l a n .

(2) Rokok ;:;> :,, . . u A - x - . I | -

Y a n g d i m a k s u d d e n g a n i n d u s t r i r o k o k a d a l a b r o k o k k r e t e k d a n r o k o k p u t i b . T a b e l 4 b a n y a m e m u a t d a t a m e n g e n a i r o k o k p u t i b . S e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - • 1 9 8 0 p r o d u k s i r o k o k p u t i b n a i k d e n g a n r a t a ^ a t a 9 0 % . P r o d u k s i r o k o k s e c a r a m e n y e l u r u b ( k r e t e k d a n r o k o k p u t i b ) u n t u k t a b u n a n g g a r a n 1 9 8 0 / 1 9 8 d i p e r k i r a k a n m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 1 3 % a t a u 7 6 0 m i l y a r b a t a n g . K e n a i k a n i n i m e m p a k a n k e n a i k a n t e r b e s a r d a l a m w a k t u 1 0 t a b u n y a n g l a l u . K e n a i k a i p r o d u k s i y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n a k a n m e n g b a s i l k a n c u k a i t e m b a k a u s e b e s a ' R p . 3 9 7 , 9 m i l y a r a t a u k e n a i k a n 3 4 , 3 % d a r i t a b u n s e b e l u m n y a . K e n a i k a n p r o d u k s i i n i s u d a b m e l a m p a u i r e n c a n a P e l i t a 111 . K e n a i k a n d a l a m p e n e r i m a a n c u k a i t e m b a k a u a d a s a n g k u t - p a u t n y a d e n g a n tindakan p e m e r i n t a b y a n g s e j a l : t a b u n a n g g a r a n 1 9 7 9 / 1 9 8 0 s u d a b m e n g a d a k a n p e m b a b a n s e c a r a s i s t i m a t i i d a l a m s k a l a t a r i f c u k a i t e m b a k a u y a n g d i s e s u a i k a n d e n g a n k e a d a a n p e m s a b a a n d a n p r o d u k s i n y a .

S e l a i n p e m b a b a n d a l a m s o a l b e a c u k a i , p e m e r i n t a b s e k a r a n g j u g a m e n g a m b i l k e b i j a k s a n a a n d a l a m b i d a n g i m p o r t e m b a k a u , y a i t u d e n g a n m e n a i k k a i p a j a k i m p o r u n t u k m e n g a t a s i k e m a c e t a n p a s a r a n t e m b a k a u d i d a l a m n e g e r i ,

E K I Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981 38 [

k a r e n a m e n u m p u k n y a t e m b a k a u . T e m b a k a u y a n g b e r k u a l i t a s t i n g g i b a n y a k t e r s e r a p o l e b i n d u s t r i r o k o k d a l a m n e g e r i , s e d a n g k a n t e m b a k a u y a n g b e r k u a l i t a s s e d a n g d a n r e n d a b l e b i b s u l i t u n t u k d i p a s a r k a n . K e b i j a k s a n a a n p e m e r i n t a b d i b i d a n g i m p o r t e m b a k a u n a m p a k n y a m a s i b b e l u m m e m u a s k a n b a g i p a r a p e n g u s a b a r o k o k t i n g k a t m e n e n g a b . P a r a p e n g u s a b a r o k o k t e r s e b u t m e n g a l a m i k e s u l i t a n k a r e n a n a i k n y a b a r g a c e n g k e b y a n g c u k u p t i n g g i .

(3) Kertas

S e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 , p r o d u k s i y a n g b e r a s a l d a r i 6 b u a b p a b r i k k e r t a s d i I n d o n e s i a m e n g a l a m i k e n a i k a n r a t a j : a t a s e b e s a r 2 5 % . J u m l a b p a b r i k k e r t a s d i I n d o n e s i a y a n g d i t a b u n 1 9 7 0 b a n y a 5 b u a b t e l a b m e n i n g k a t d i t a b u n 1 9 7 9 m e n j a d i 2 8 b u a b . P r o d u k s i k e r t a s s e l u m b n y a d i t a b u n 1 9 7 0 b a n y a l a b s e b e s a r 1 8 , 5 r i b u t o n , s e d a n g k a n k o n s u m s i d a l a m t a b u n t e r s e b u t s e b e s a r 1 5 5 r i b u t o n

j a d i p r o d u k s i d a l a m n e g e r i b a n y a 1 2 % d a r i t o t a l k o n s u m s i .

P a d a t a b u n 1 9 7 9 p r o d u k s i m e n c a p a i 2 1 4 r i b u t o n a t a u 5 0 % d a r i t o t a l k o n s u m s i t a b u n y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n , y a i t u s e b e s a r 4 3 0 r i b u t o n . D a r i p r o d u k s i t a b u n 1 9 7 9 i t u , s e j u m l a b 1 2 0 r i b u t o n a d a l a b k e r t a s t u U s / k e r t a s c e t a k , se d a n g k a n 9 4 r i b u t o n a d a l a b k e r t a s u n t u k k e p e r l u a n i n d u s t r i d a n m m a b t a n g g a . D a r i 2 8 p a b r i k k e r t a s i t u , 1 4 b u a b d i a n t a r a n y a j u g a m e m p r o d u k s i p u l p u n t u k k e p e r l u a n b a b a n b a k u m e r e k a s e n d i r i , s e d a n g k a n y a n g l a i n m e m b e l i p u l p d a r i s u m b e r h i a r .

S e j u m l a b 1 4 b u a b p a b r i k k e r t a s y a n g d i m a k s u d i t u b a n y a m a m p u m e m p r o d u k s i 7 5 r i b u t o n p u l p a t a u k i r a J d r a 1 4 % d a r i k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i m e r e k a . I n d o n e s i a m a s i b m e n g j m p o r p u l p y a n g d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 7 9 b e r j u m l a b 1 2 0 r i b u t o n , d i t a b u n 1 9 7 8 s e b e s a r 1 1 0 r i b u t o n d a n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 7 s e b e s a r 9 0 r i b u t o n . S e l a i n i t u I n d o n e s i a j u g a m e n g i m p o r k e r t a s u n t u k k e p e r l u a n k o r a n d a n k e r t a s u n t u k k e p e r l u a n k a n t o n g s e m e n .

U n t u k m e n i n g k a t k a n p r o d u k s i d a l a m n e g e r i g u n a m e m e n u b i k e b u t u b a n a k a n k e r t a s , p e m e r i n t a b m e m b a n g u n 3 b u a b p r o y e k i n d u s t r i k e r t a s y a i t u :

— P r o y e k k e r t a s s e m e n d i C i l a c a p .

— P r o y e k i n t e g r a t e d - i n d u s t r y d i S e s a y a p , K a l i m a n t a n T i m u r y a n g a k a n m e n g b a s i l k a n k a y u g e l o n d o n g a n ( l o g s ) , p l y w o o d s e r t a s b o r t fibre p u l p .

— P r o y e k l o n g fibre p u l p d i L b o k S e u m a w e , A c e b .

S e d a n g k a n u n t u k m e m e n u b i k e b u t u b a n k e r t a s k o r a n y a n g s e l a m a i n i m e n c a k u p j u m l a b s e k i t a r 7 0 r i b u s a m p a i 9 0 r i b u t o n p e r t a b u n d a n y a n g m a s i b m e m p a k a n b a r a n g i m p o r , m a k a P e m e r i n t a b a k a n m e m p e r l u a s k a p a s i t a s P N . L e c e s u n t u k m e m p r o d u k s i k e r t a s k o r a n d a n p u l p y a n g p e m b a n g u n a i m y a a k a n d i m u l a i t a b u n 1 9 8 3 .

3 8 2 E K I VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

(4) Pupuk

P r o d u k s i p u p u k d i I n d o n e s i a s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 u m u m n y a m e n u n j u k k a n k e n a i k a n , y a i t u : U r e a m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 5 6 % p e r t a h u n , A m o n i i m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 2 3 5 % p e r t a h u n d a n Z A + T S P m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 7 2 % p e t a h u n . K o n s u m s i U r e a d i t a h u n 1 9 8 0 s e b e s a r 1 0 8 j u t a t o n d i a n t a r a n y a 9 3 % a t a u 1,8 j u t a t o n d i k o n s u m s i o l e b s e k t o r t a n a m a n p a n g a n ( t e r u t a m a b e r a s ) , s e d a n g k a n 5 , 4 % a t a u 1 0 6 r i b u t o n o l e b s e k t o r b u k a n t a n a m a n p a n g a n d a n y a n g 1 , 6 % a t a u 3 1 , 7 r i b u t o n o l e b s e k t o r i n d u s t r i .

U r e a d i b a s i l k a n o l e b P T . P U S R I d a n P T . P U P U K K U J A N G y a n g m e m p u n y a i t o t a l k a p a s i t a s 2 0 j u t a t o n p e r t a b u n . U n t u k m e n c u k u p i k e b u t u b a n p u p u k d i d a l a m n e g e r i , p e m e r i n t a b m a s i b m e n j a l a n k a n i m p o r y a n g d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 0 m e n g e n a i U r e a b e r j u m l a b 1 3 9 r i b u t o n . S e l a i n p u p u k U r e a , I n d o n e s i a j u g a m e m e r l u k a n j e n i s p u p u k l a i n s e p e r t i T S P (Tripple Super Phospate . D A P ( D i a m o n i u m Phosphate) d a n N P K (Compound F e r t i l i z e r ) .

T o t a l k o n s u m s i k e t i g a j e n i s i n i b e r j u m l a b 5 5 6 , 7 r i b u t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 8 0 s e d a n g k a n p r o d u k s i d a l a m n e g e r i b a n y a m e n c a p a i 4 6 4 r i b u t o n a t a u 8 3 0 % d a r i k e b u t u b a n , s e d a n g k e k u r a n g a i m y a 1 6 % a t a u 9 2 , 7 r i b u t o n d i i m p o r . K e t -ga j e n i s p u p u k y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n d i b a s i l k a n o l e b P T . P E T R O K I M I A G R I -S I K . D e n g a n m e l i b a t k e p a d a k o n s u m s i p u p u k y a n g t i n g g i , s e d a n g k a n p r o d u k -s i d a l a m n e g e r i b e l u m m e n c u k u p i , m a k a d i s a m p i n g I n d o n e s i a m e n g e k s p o r p u p u k k e l u a r n e g e r i , I n d o n e s i a j u g a m a s i b m e n g i m p o r .

U n t u k m e n g a t a s i k e k u r a n g a n p u p u k , p e m e r i n t a b a k a n m e m b a n g u n l a g i p a b r i k - p a b r i k b a r u s e p e r t i :

- P U P U K K A L T I M I d i K a l i m a n t a n T i m u r , y a n g a k a n m e m p r o d u k s i U r e i d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i 5 7 0 r i b u t o n p e r t a b u n . P a b r i k i n i d i p e r k i r a k a n s e l e s a i a w a l t a b u n 1 9 8 2 . S e l a i n U r e a , p a b r i k t e r s e b u t a k a n m e n ^ a -s i l k a n A m o n i a s e b e s a r 1 6 5 r i b u t o n p e r t a b u n .

- P U P U K K A L T I M I I , m e r u p a k a n p e r l u a s a n d a r i P U P U K K A L T I M 1 d a n d i r e n c a n a k a n s e l e s a i d i t a b u n 1 9 8 4 , d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s 5 7 0 r i b u t o n p e : t a b u n .

- A C E H A S E A N U R E A P L A N T , y a n g m e m p u n y a i k a p a s i t a s 5 7 0 r i b u t o i i U r e a p e r t a b u n . P r o y e k i n i a k a n s e l e s a i d i b a n g u n a w a l t a b u n 1 9 8 4 .

E K L VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

Tabel 4

Perkembangan Produksi Komoditi Perindustrian 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0

* * \ Semen Rokok Putih Kertas P u p u k

Tahun Produksi % * Produksi % * Produksi % * Urea % * Amonia % * ZA +TSP % * ton (1000 big) ton ton ton ton

1970 514.993 9.694.366 11.693 98.693 2.173 1971 486.634 5,5 12.538.514 29,3 14.660 25,4 104.750 6,5 2.398 10,4 1972 595.760 22,4 13.631.455 8,7 34.331 134,2 116.727 11,4 2.639 10,1 29.389 1973 740.437 24,3 17.032.515 25,0 42.668 24,3 56.955 51,4 1.291 51,1 119.759 307,5 1974 830.888 12,2 17.648.257 3,6 44.401 4,1 111.626 96 3.007 133,0 117.020 - 2,3 1975 1.077.179 29,6 16.193.817 -8,2 45.905 3,4 402.440 260,5 58.728 1.853,0 116.635 - 0,3 1976 1.809.656 68 16.839.701 4,0 49.744 8,4 366.327 - 9,0 224.952 283 75.033 -35,7 1977 2.548.545 40,8 16.910.384 0,4 53.770 8,1 819.050 123,6 499.347 122 92.316 23 1978 3.648.875 43,2 18.899.100 11,8 69.066 28,4 1.382.866 68,8 584.655 17,1 141.154 53 1979 4.431.530 21,4 21.425.018 13,4 74.355 7,7 1.386.903 0,3 8.826 98,5 255.221 80,8 1980 5.259.380 18,7 22.428.596 4,7 78.214 5,2 2.084.768 50,3 15.287 73,2 645.797 153,0

I Sumber: Diolah dari data BPS, Indikator Ekonomi, Juli 1981. •

Keterangan: *) Prosentase terhadap tahun sebelumnya. **) Produksi pabrik kertas Padalarang, Leces, Blabak, Gowa, Basuki Rahmat dan Martapura.

n i . Perkembangan Neraca Pembayaran Luar Negeri

I I I . l . Perkembangan Neraca Pembayaran

P a d a T a b e l 5 d a p a t d i l i h a t , b a h w a t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n T r i w u l a n I t a b u n 1 9 ^ 1 m e n g b a s i l k a n s u r p l u s s e b e s a r U S $ 5 5 0 j u t a . D i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n b a s i l si r p l u s T r i w u l a n 1 t a b u n 1 9 8 0 , y a n g b e r j u m l a b U S $ 1 . 0 4 6 , t e r j a d i p e n u m n a n e b e s a r 4 7 % . H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n t e m t a m a o l e b m e n u m n n y a n i l a i e k s p o r k o n o d i t i d i l u a r m i n y a k d e n g a n 2 9 % , s e d a n g k a n d i l a i n p i b a k n i l a i i m p o r m i n y i k m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 5 7 % . N i l a i e k s p o r m i n y a k n a i k d e n g a n 2 0 % , n i l a i i m p o r d l u a r m i n y a k n a i k d e n g a n 1 8 % , p e n g a n g k u t a n d a n p e r j a l a n a n ( n e t t o ) m e n i i i g k a t d e n g a n 3 3 , 8 % , p e n d a p a t a n m o d a l d a n b u n g a ( n e t t o ) t u m n 8 , 4 % , p e m e r j n • t a b ( n e t t o ) t u m n 9 % d a n j a s a - j a s a l a i n n y a n a i k 2 4 % .

L a l u l i n t a s m o d a l s w a s t a d a l a m T r i w u l a n 1 t a b u n 1 9 8 1 m e n u m n d e n d a n 4 9 % , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n T r i w u l a n 1 t a b u n 1 9 8 0 . L a l u l i n t a s m o d a l p e r i e -r i n t a b t u m n 2 2 % d a n l a l u l i n t a s m o n e t e r n a i k 7 2 % . M e n u m t p e r n y a t a a n : ' e -m e r i n t a b y a n g t e r a k b i r , d a l a m S e m e s t e r I T a b u n A n g g a r a n 1 9 8 1 / 1 9 8 2 , n e n c i i p e m b a y a r a n m e n g a l a m i d e f i s i t s e k i t a r U S $ 1 0 0 j u t a , s e d a n g k a n d a l a m S e m e s t e r 11 d e f i s i t a k a n m e l o n j a k d e n g a n j u m l a b s e k i t a r U S $ 8 0 0 j u t a . S e b i n g g i i u n t u k s e l u m b T a b u n A n g g a r a n 1 9 8 1 / 1 9 8 2 d e f i s i t p a d a N e r a c a P e m b a y a j a n d i p e r k i r a k a n m e n j a d i s e k i t a r U S S 9 0 0 j u t a .

D a l a m p a d a i t u t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n d a l a m S e m e s t e r I , T a b u n A n g g a a n 1 9 8 1 / 1 9 8 2 m e n g a l a m i d e f i s i t s e k i t a r U S S 7 6 0 j u t a d a n d a l a m s e m e s t e r 11 a k a n m e n g a l a m i d e f i s i t s e k i t a r U S S 1 . 9 0 0 j u t a . S e b i n g g a u n t u k s e l u m b T a l u i i A n g g a r a n 1 9 8 1 / 1 9 8 2 d e f i s i t t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n d i p e r k i r a k a n a k a n b e r j u m a l i U S S 2 , 6 m i l y a r l e b i b .

in.2. Perkembangan Ekspor (Libat Tabel 6)

M e n u r u t d a t a - d a t a s e m e n t a r a B a n k I n d o n e s i a , n i l a i e k s p o r s e l a m a J a m a i i s a m p a i d e n g a n S e p t e m b e r 1 9 8 1 m e n c a p a i U S S 1 6 0 m i l y a r , d i b a n d i n g k a n de n g a n n i l a i e k s p o r d a l a m p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a d i t a b u n 1 9 8 0 y a n g b e s a m y a a d a l a b U S S 1 6 , 1 m i l y a r . N i l a i e k s p o r m i n y a k b u m i n a i k d e n g a n 1 5 0 % , n i l a i ( p o r gas a l a m c a i r n a i k d e n g a n 6 , 5 % , s e d a n g k a n n U a i e k s p o r k o m o d i t i l a i r a i y l a d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i d a n gas a l a m t u m n d e n g a n 3 4 0 % . V o l u m e e k s p o r c o -m o d i t i d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i d a n gas a l a m s e l a m a p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t t e l a b m e p i i m n d a r i 1 6 j u t a t o n m e n j a d i 9 0 j u t a t o n a t a u m e n u m n d e n g a n 3 7 , 7 % .

III.3. Peikembangan Impor (Libat Tabel 7 )

M e n u m t a n g k a - a n g k a s e m e n t a r a l a p o r a n m i n g g u a n B a n k I n d o n e s i a , p e n g e l b d r -a n d e v i s a u n t u k i m p o r s e l a m a 9 b u l a n p e r t a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 1 m e n c a p a i U S S 6

E K I , Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981 3f ;5

Tabel S Nenca Rembayaran Luar Negeri

(dalam jutaan USS)

1980 1981 Pembahan

% Triwulan 1 Triwulan U ) Pembahan

%

A. Transaksi Berjalan : 1046 550 47,4 — Eksppr f.o.b.

minyak 359/ 4302 qn 20 diluar minyak 1 /U6 1211 29

— hnpcx f.o.b. maiyak 377 593 57 diluar miayak 2326 2748 18

- Jasa-jasa Pengangkutan dam Perjalanan (netto) 420 562 33,8 rdiuapuian muuai uan bunga (netto) 855 783 8,4 . minyak 555 535 . diluar minyak 300 248 -

Pemerintah t.t.b. (netto) 22 20 9 Jatagaa lainnya (netto) 257 319 24

B. Special Drawing Ri^ts 65 62 46

C L.aju-4111 tas modal J l I OA'S ao

swasta (netto) D Lalu 4intas modal Peme-

1 fi l l • • ^aaa*Maj aaax^a •••• M. v iaaw rintah 566 443 22 Kredit-kredit (netto) 495 433 PL - 480 71 r) 10

E Jumlah A siniDai D 1168 730 p. Selisih pedntungBn 706 65 _ G. Lalu lintas moneter 462 795 72

. Mutasi-mutasi dalam hubungan IMF (netto) 8 3

. Passive luar negeri 18

. Aktiva luar negeri 436 792 H. Jumlah F dan G 1168 739

Sumber : D i o l a h dari Laporan Mingguan Bank Indonesia r) angka dipeibgiki 1) angka 1 1 . • . • I I I ! II,.

EKL Vol XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

Tabel 6 Ekspor Indonesia Januari - September 1980 dan 1981

Januari - September %

laniiftri jentenibei tjVLJ i VI1 i w a

1 %

N i l a i ' ' (1980) Nilai^' (1981) %

Volume' ' ' (1980) Volume^' (1980)

1 %

t 1 iviinyBK Dumi 9.765.970 11.314.124 15,9

I I Gas Alam C a i i 1.695.570 1.805.321 6,5 I I I Tanpa Minyak dan Gas 4.640.854 3.047.920 - 34,3

I . Komodit i Mineral/Petio K i m i a 622.835 465.106 - 25,3 3.107,4 2.523,9 - 18,8

- T imah 335.052 -inn o o H 299.883

- 10,5 22,0 22,8 3,6

- Tembaga 86.809 61 .804 - 28,8 144,7 103,4 - 2 8 4

- Nlk .1 96.990 46.655 - 51,9 18,8 9,2 - 51,5

- Barang Tambang lainnya 54.935 47 .160 - 14,2 2.270,6 2.204,5 - 2,9

- P u p u k 30.665 1.539 - 95,0 196,6 5,6 - 97,2

- S • m a n 18.384 8.065 - 56 ,1 454,7 178,4 - 60,8

2. Komodit i Partanlan 3.612.892 2.187.647 - 39,5 12.870,91 7.422,67 - 42,3

- K a y u 1.524.716 734.062 - 51,9 10.292 5.367 - 47,9

- Karet 830.403 676.369 - 18,5 724,1 651,8 - 10,0

- K o p i 577.461 279.753 - 51,6 203,3 162,3 - 20,2

- Minyak Kelapa Sawit 142.793 45.170 - 68,4 275,2 9 9 4 - 63,8

- BUi Kelapa Sawit 5.397 3.740 - 30,7 19,5 1 8 4 - 5 ,1

- T e h 66.680 71.347 7,0 56,0 53 ,1 - 5,2

- Tembakau 52.845 36.654 - 30,6 20,7 1 9 4 - 5,8

- Rotan 62.356 52.645 - 15,6 66,1 53,7 - 18,8

- Bungkil Kopra 37.662 24.765 - 34,2 271,1 212,3 - 21,7

- Tapioka 18.352 10.864 - 40,8 163,4 109,3 - 33,1

Lain-lain 70.067 58.748 - 16,2 660 ,1 571,2 - 13,5

- L a d a 37.688 32.667 - 13,3 22,2 23,3 5.0

Lain-lain 17.447 18.483 5,9 18,7 19,6 4,8

- Udang 131.709 112.108 - 14,9 33,95 2 6 4 4 - 21,8

Lain-lain 37.316 30.172 - 19,1 4 4 4 6 35,03 - 21,4

3. Barang-barang Manufacturing 180.423 128.874 - 28,6 19.018 17,561 - 7,6

- Kerqjinan Tangan 114.493 89.920 - 21,5 18,3 17,2 - 6,0 - Alat-alat Llstrik 65.930 38.954 - 40,9 0,718 _ 0,368 - 48,7

4. Komodit i lata-lain 224.704 266.393 18,6

T o t a l 16.101.494 16.167.365 0,4 15.997,328 9.964,138 - 37,7

fiv-Hh., . n i , . i . t . rf.ri T -pnran Minppmn Bank Indonesia no. 1 1 7 7 . 1 9 Nopember 1981 1) Dalam r i h i i a n l l S t 2) Dalam ribuan ton

Tabel 7

Impor Menumt Jenis Barang (dalam ribuan USS)

Jenis barang Januari - September Pembahan

1 9 8 0 * ) 1 9 8 1 * ) %

o d n a n M a K a n a n i v e s e n a n g a n 1 . 0 5 9 3 1 1 rY i-\ t n A f\ ^

8 9 9 . 4 2 5 - 1 5 , 1 0 n a s i i - n a s u J v u n i a 1 . 0 1 5 . 9 5 1 1 . 5 0 3 . 8 2 7 4 8 , 0 2 D a l i a n D a x a r Ki r \ c \ o

6 . 0 9 3 5 2 . 5 2 6 7 6 2 , 0 7 K e r t a s , B u k u d a n L a i n b a r a n g c e t a k a n 1 4 0 . 0 7 6 1 3 3 . 8 6 5 —4 4 1

T e k s t i l d a n S a n d a n g 3 7 6 . 4 6 8 3 3 5 . 9 4 0 — 1 0 7 7 H a s i l - b a s i l M i n e r a l 1 2 8 . 8 5 7 1 0 1 . 1 4 0 — 2 1 5 1 B a r a n g - b a r a n g L o g a m 7 5 3 . 0 7 8 5 9 9 . 1 4 9 — 2 0 4 4 M e s i n - m e s i n d a n P e s a w a t 1 . 5 9 5 . 2 8 0 1 . 4 1 2 . 9 7 8 - 1 1 , 4 3 A l a t - a l a t P e n g a n g k u t a n 1 . 0 7 5 . 4 2 5 9 9 3 . 8 9 3 - 7 , 5 8 B a r a n g - b a r a n g K a r e t 2 1 . 0 6 5 3 6 . 5 1 2 7 3 0 3 B a r a n g - b a r a n g K a y u d a n G a b u s 1 1 . 1 2 5 5 . 7 7 5 i m n o

- t o , 0 7 B a l u r d a n B a r a n g - b a r a n g K u l i t 2 . 3 0 5 2 . 9 4 9 2 7 , 9 4 B a t u d a n L o g a m M u l i a 2 . 2 1 1 1 0 8 . 9 3 5 4 8 2 6 0 6 R u p a - r u p a 5 0 5 . 0 5 7 4 1 1 . 6 4 4 , - 1 7 0 1

6 . 6 9 2 0 6 8 6 . 6 0 4 . 5 5 8 - 1 , 3 1

S u m b e r ; D i o l a h d a r i L a p o r a n - l a p o r a n M i n g g u a n B a n k I n d o n e s i a P e b r u a r i s /d N o p e m b e r 1 9 8 1

* ) A n g k a - a n g k a s e m e n t a r a . , •

3 8 8 E K L Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

m i l y a r , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e n g e l u a r a n d e v i s a u n t u k i m p o r d a l a m p e r i c d o 56

i e

y a n g s a m a d i t a h u n 1 9 8 0 s e b e s a r U S S 6 , 7 m i l y a r , s e b i n g g a a d a p e n u m n a n b e s a r 1 0 % . N d a i i m p o r d e n g a n D e v i s a U m u m b e r j u m l a b U S S 5 , 6 m d y a r j v k t i a t a u 8 5 % d a r i n l l a l t o t a l i m p o r . N d a l I m p o r d e n g a n D e v i s a B a n t u a n L u a r H e g e r l d a l a m p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a b e r j u m l a b U S S 9 9 4 j u t a a t a u 1 5 % d a r i i i l a i t o t a l i m p o r . N d a l I m p o r m e n u m t j e n i s b a r a n g p a d a u m u m n y a m e n u m n d i b a n d i n g k a n n g ^ n n d a l i m p o r d a l a m p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a d l t a b u n 1 9 8 0 . T e r k e c u a b n l a i I m p o r b a b a n b a k a r , b a t u d a n l o g a m m u l i a . H a s d J i a s d k l m l a , b a r a n g - b a r ; n ^ k a r e t , b a l u r d a n b a r a n g - b a r a n g k u U t m e n u n j u k k a n k e n a l k k a n . N d a l I m p o r b a s d - h a s d k l m l a m e n d u d u k l t e m p a t p e r t a m a , m e s l n m i e s i n d a n s a w a t t e m p a t k e d u a , a l a t - a l a t p e n g a n g k u t a n t e m p a t k e t i g a d a n b a b a n m a k ^ a n d a n k e s e n a n g a n t e m p a t k e e m p a t d a l a m s e l u m b I m p o r .

I V . Perkembangan Moneter dan Perbankan

IV. 1 . P e r k e m b a n g a n M o n e t e r ( L i b a t Tabel 8 )

M e n u m t d a t a - d a t a s e m e n t a r a B a n k I n d o n e s i a , p o s i s i j u m l a b u a n g b e r e t i a t s a m p a i d e n g a n m l n g g u k e t i g a O k t o b e r 1 9 8 1 a d a l a b s e b e s a r R p . 6 . 0 1 6 m d y a i d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n j u m l a b u a n g b e r e d a r p a d a a k b i r D e s e m b e r 1 9 8 0 y ^ b e s a r n y a R p . 4 . 9 9 5 m d y a r . S e b i n g g a k e n a i k a n s e b e s a r R p . 1 . 0 2 1 m d y a r a 2 0 %. K o m p o s i s l d a l a m j u m l a b u a n g y a n g b e r e d a r t e r d l r l d a r i u a n g k a i j t ^ R p . 2 . 5 2 2 m d y a r a t a u 4 2 % d a r i j u m l a b u a n g b e r e d a r d a n R p . 3 . 4 8 4 m d ; a t a u 5 8 % u a n g g i r a l . P e r a n a n u a n g g i r a l m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 1 % d l b a n d l n g l d e n g a n p o s i s i a k b i r D e s e m b e r 1 9 8 0 .

IV.2. Faktor-fektor Yang Mempengamhi Jumlah Uang Beredar

D a t a - d a t a d a l a m Tabel 8 m e m p e r l l b a t k a n b a b w a p e r t a m b a b a n u a n g h e r e s e b e s a r R p . 1 . 0 2 1 m d y a r d i s e b a b k a n o l e b f a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g m e m p u n y a i b« n g a m b e k s p a n s i y a i t u : T a g i b a n p a d a B a d a n / L e m b a g a d a n P e m s a b a a n P e i j i e r l n t a b s e b e s a r R p . 4 1 5 m d y a r , T a g i b a n p a d a P e m s a b a a n d a n P e r o r a n g a n b e s a r R p . 1 5 7 2 m d y a r , R e k e n l n g K b u s u s R p . 4 1 m d y a r . S e d a n g k a n f a k t l o i f a k t o r y a n g m e n y e b a b k a n k o n t r a k s i m o n e t e r a d a l a b A k t i v a L u a r N e g e r i I e i s i b s e b e s a r R p . 3 3 9 m d y a r , T a g i b a n b e r s l b p a d a P e m e r i n t a b p u s a t s e b e s a r R p . 3 2 0 m d y a r , S i m p a n a n b e r j a n g k a d a n T a b u n g a n d e n g a n R p . 2 1 8 m d y a i l a m n y a s e b e s a r R p . 1 3 0 m d y a r .

a i l

' a r a n

l i

E K L Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

I V 3 . Peikembangan Perbankan D

P o s i s i p i n j a m a n P e r b a n k a n p a d a a k h i r S e p t e m b e r 1 9 8 1 a d a l a b R p . 9 . 5 8 7 m i l y a r , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p o s i s i p i n j a m a n a k b i r D e s e m b e r y a n g b e r j u m l a b R p . 7 . 8 8 0 m i l y a r , s e b i n g g a a d a k e n a i k a n p e m b e r i a n p i n j a m a n s e b e s a r R p . 1 7 0 7 m i l y a r a t a u k e n a i k a n 2 1 , 7 % . D a r i j u m l a b p e r e d a r a n p i n j a m a n t e r s e b u t 7 0 % d i s e r a p o l e b s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n ; 1 8 , 1 % o l e b s e k t o r p e r t a m b a n g a n ; 3 3 , 6 % o l e b s e k t o r i n d u s t r i p e n g o l a b a n ; 2 7 , 8 % o l e b s e k t o r p e r d a g a n g a n ; 6 , 4 % o l e b s e k t o r j a s a j a s a ; 6 0 % u n t u k l a i n n y a .

P e r a n a n B a n k I n d o n e s i a d a l a m m e m b e r i k a n p i n j a m a n l a n g s u n g a d a l a b R p . 2 4 2 6 m i l y a r a t a u 2 5 0 % d a i l p i n j a m a n P e r b a n k a n . P e r a n a n B a n k - b a n k U m u m P e m e r i n t a b R p . 5 . 6 4 4 m i l y a r a t a u 5 8 0 % , B a n k - b a n k S w a s t a N a s i o n a l R p . 7 7 6 m i l y a r a t a u 8 , 1 % , B a n k - b a n k A s i n g R p . 5 2 2 m i l y a r a t a u 5 , 4 % . P i n j a m a n B a n k I n d o n e s i a s e b e s a r R p . 4 7 4 0 m i l y a r , y a n g b e r u p a p i n j a m a n l l k u l -d l t a s a d a l a b 4 8 , 8 % d a n p i n j a m a n l a n g s u n g 5 1 0 % .

P o s i s i p i n j a m a n i n v e s t a s i m e n u r u t s e k t o r e k o n o m i s a m p a i a k b i r J u n l 1 9 8 1 , a d a l a b s e b a g a i b e r i k u t : P e r s e t u j u a n o l e b B a n k R p . 1 0 0 3 m i l y a r , p e n g g u n a a n o l e b n a s a b a b R p . 6 5 1 m i l y a r a t a u 6 5 % d a r i j u m l a b y a n g d l s e t u j u l . P e r m o b o n a n K r e d i t I n v e s t a s i K e c i l ( K I K ) y a n g d l s e t u j u l p a d a b u l a n A g u s t u s 1 9 8 1 a d a l a b 1 5 0 r i b u b u a b d e n g a n n l l a l R p . 4 6 1 m i l y a r . P e n g g u n a a n o l e b n a s a b a b s e b e s a r R p . 2 9 5 m i l y a r a t a u 6 4 % .

P e r m o b o n a n K r e d i t M o d a l K e r j a P e r m a n e n ( K M K P ) y a n g d l s e t u j u l u n t u k w a k t u y a n g s a m a a d a l a b 1 1 6 7 ribu b u a b d e n g a n n l l a l R p . 9 2 0 m i l y a r . P o s i s i p e n g g u n a a n n a s a b a b R p . 5 3 6 m i l y a r a t a u 5 8 % d a r i y a n g t e l a b d l s e t u j u l .

' D e p o s i t o b e r j a n g k a p a d a a k b i r S e p t e m b e r 1 9 8 1 b e r j u m l a b R p . 8 1 3 , 8 m i l y a r d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n a k b i r S e p t e m b e r 1 9 8 0 y a n g b e r j u m l a b R p . 7 5 0 , 8 m i l y a r a d a p e n i n g k a t a n s e b e s a r 8 , 4 % . P e r a n a n D e p o s i t o b e r j a n g k a 2 4 b u l a n p a d a t a n g g a l t e r s e b u t a d a l a b 9 2 % a t a u b e r j u m l a b R p . 7 4 8 , 1 m i l y a r . J u m l a b b u k u T a b a n a s p a d a a k b i r S e p t e m b e r 1 9 8 1 a d a 9 3 4 6 b u a b d e n g a n p o s i s i R p . 3 5 1 , 1 m i l y a r , b u k u T a s k a 9 b u a b d e n g a n p o s i s i R p . 0 , 1 m i l y a r .

Sumber: Laporan Mingguan Bank Indonesia tanggal 5 Nopember 1981.

390 EKI , Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

Tabel 8

Uang beredar dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya

(milyar Rp.)

Minggu ke III Oktober ' U

J u m l a h u a n g b e r e d a r

P e r t a m b a h a n u a n g b e r e d a r d a r i a k h i r t a h u n 1 9 8 0

F a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g m e n y e b a b k a n p e r u b a b a n j u m l a b u a n g b e r e d a r

1 . A k t i v a L u a r N e g e r i

2 . T a g i b a n b e r s l b p a d a P e m e r i n t a b

3 . T a g i b a n p a d a B a d a n / L e m b a g a & P e m s a b a a n P e m e r i n t a b

4 . R e k e n l n g K b u s u s

5 . T a g i b a n p a d a P e m s a b a a n d a n p e r o r a n g a n

6 . S i m p a n a n b e r j a n g k a d a n T a b u n g a n

7 . L a i n n y a

6 0 1 6

1 0 2 1

- 3 3 9

- 3 2 0

4 1 5

4 1

1 5 7 2

- 2 1 8

- 1 3 0

S u m b e r : L a p o r a n m i n g g u a n B J . t g l . 1 9 N o p e m b e r 1 9 8 1

V . Perkembangan Harga

V . l . Perkembangan Inflasi

P a d a T a b e l 9 t e r l i b a t b a b w a l a j u I n f l a s i d a l a m b u l a n N o p m b e r 1 9 8 1 m e n u r b i d e n g a n - 0 , 3 2 % , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n b u l a n O k t o b e r 1 9 8 1 . P e n u m n a n n c u k u p b e r a r t i s e b a b d i l i b a t d a r i b u l a n - b u l a n s e b e l u m n y a l a j u I n f l a s i d l I n c o n e s i a m e n g a l a m i k e n a i k a n s e c a r a t e r u s m e n e m s , k e c u a l i d l b u l a n S e p t e m l ei m e n u r u n d e n g a n - 0 , 1 9 % . L a j u I n f l a s i y a n g r e n d a b s e l a m a 1 1 b u l a n p sr t a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 1 t e r t o l o n g j u g a o l e b s e k t o r l u a r n e g e r i y a n g m e m b a w a p e n g a m b k o n t r a k s i t e r b a d a p l l k u l d l t a s d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a , p i s a m p i n g p e n g e n d a l l a n m o n e t e r k e t a t y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e b P e m e r i n t a b .

EKI , VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981 3 ?

Tabel 9

Persentase Perubahan Laju Inflasi Gabungan 17 Kota di Indonesia

Januari - Nopember Tahun 1981

% P e r u b a b a n

B u l a n T T

U m u m \M 1 M a k a n a n S a n d a n g P e r u m a b a n

A n e k a b a r a n g -b a r a n g &

J a s a

J a n u a r i 1 , 3 1 2 , 0 8 0 , 5 3 0 , 4 9 1 , 0 8

P e b r u a r i 0 , 7 0 1 , 1 2 0 , 2 9 0 , 4 6 0 , 4 2

M a r e t 0 , 7 0 0 , 9 3 0 , 2 3 0 , 8 7 0 , 2 5

A p r i l 0 , 9 3 0 , 5 7 0 , 3 1 1 , 8 7 0 , 6 7

M e i 0 , 1 5 0 , 0 8 0 , 1 4 0 , 2 7 0 , 1 9

J u n i 0 , 4 2 0 , 3 6 0 , 7 6 0 0 8 0 , 1 2

J u l i 1 , 2 0 1 , 5 2 1 , 2 7 0 , 8 1 1 , 0 5

A g u s t u s 0 , 5 1 0 , 8 0 0 , 1 6 0 , 0 2 0 , 7 4

S e p t e m b e r - 0 , 1 9 - 0 , 5 8 0 , 0 4 - 0 , 0 1 0 , 1 7

O k t o b e r 1 , 1 7 1 , 6 6 0 , 8 0 0 , 4 9 0 , 9 6

N o p e m b e r - 0 , 3 2 - 1 , 0 3 0 0 9 0 , 0 7 0 , 2 3

S u m b e r : B i r o P u s a t S t a t i s t i k I n d i k a t o r E k o n o m i , A p r i l 1 9 8 1 I n d i k a t o r E k o n o m i , J u l i 1 9 8 1 B u l l e t i n R i n g k a s , S e p t e m b e r 1 9 8 1 .

K e t e r a n g a n : P e r s e n t a s e p e r u b a h a n d i m a k s u d t e r b a d a p b u l a n s e b e l u m n y a .

3 9 2 E K L VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

Tabel 10

t X

> <

z o

I CO

Laju Inflasi 17 Kota di Indonesia Menurut Kelompok Barang April 1977 -Maret 1978 = 100

Januari - Nopember 1980 dan 1981

Ktlompok

Barang

c

s

c 3

I j c

•§ s

i s

-3

g,

,2

cu

a g

1

61)

a B

a.

M >,

=3 VI

a. c Q

E 2 1

S

CO § 3

36 s •3 e

s.

c •s

i 3

CO

o 13 s

s

to C

-a

1 CO C 3 '3

s. B <

S g.

3

U m u m 1980 16,81 13,04 19,07 19,50 12,27 18,63 20,64 21,13 24,84 18,35 15,69 12,34 8,72 17,87 22,96 13,32 4,39 14,49

1981 6,78 8,09 5,26 8 4 7 5,26 7,23 5,57 8,08 9,32 12,21 4,41 9,82 4,81 6,56 4,40 4,49 5,08 12,47

Makanan 1980 1731 , 10,57 14,81 21,33 11,77 20,44 22,45 22,70 27,74 21,64 12,76 14,34 5,44 20,09 20,20 14,38 - 1 , 1 7 13,35

1981 7,73 12,91 6,40 11,33 6,57 5,61 4,90 7,66 8,92 14,43 5,15 17,17 7,03 11,28 3,04 5,92 5,88 19,81

Sandang 1980 13,14 7,85 1 2 , 2 8 15,84 9,52 18,95 22,13 13,48 16,68 9,55 17,07 9,19 4,72 7,68 18,75 10,12 15,03 12,57

1981 3,97 4,72 5,90 6,59 0,86 8,81 6,46 928 644 5 0 1 0,71 2,31 5,95 - 1 , 0 7 1,12 - 2 , 4 1 4 ,72 5,36

Perumahan 1980 19,08 19,87 28,07 23,90 16,39 17,86 22,34 21,22 21,47 17,00 22,99 11,95 17,05 22,20 30,40 14,88 10,96 12,42

1981 6,83 1,67 3,29 6,82 6,97 6,13 5,07 9,87 10,40 14,32 6,06 2,62 1,83 1,86 8,01 6,70 6,82 7,95

Aneka B a r a n g - 1980 15,20 13,44 4,10 10,37 9,34 15,34 14,21 21,93 27,63 15,43 14,18 9,07 10,95 14,15 40,97 10,87 6,94 21,80

barang & Jasa 1981 6,03 7,42 3,98 4,46 2 4 4 11,09 6,89 6,20 9,92 6,03 3,55 4,05 1,21 4,52 3,71 2 , 25 0,40 5,96

Sumber Diolah dari Data Indikator E k o n o m i Maret 1981 Diolah dari Data Indikator E k o n o m i Maret 1980 Diolah dari Data Indikator BuUetin Ringkas B P S Nopember 1981

D i l i h a t d a r i i n d e k s h a r g a k o n s u m e n , m a k a k e l o m p o k m a k a n a n m e n g a l a m i p e n u m n a n y a n g p a l i n g b e s a r d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n k e l o m p o k - k e l o m p o k b a r a n g l a i n n y a , y a k n i s ebesa r - 1 , 0 3 % . K a l a u k e l o m p o k m a k a n a n i n i d i -p e r i n c i , m a k a n a m p a k p u l a s u b k e l o m p o k b u m b u - b u m b u a n m e n u m n seb e s a r - 1 2 , 9 1 % .

S e c a r a n a s i o n a l l a j u i n f l a s i d i I n d o n e s i a b i s a d i b a c a p a d a T a b e l 1 0 . S e l a m a p e r i o d e J a n u a r i s / d N o p e m b e r 1 9 8 1 l a j u i n f l a s i m e n c a p a i 6 , 8 % , l e b i b r e n d a b d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n l a j u i n f l a s i J a n u a r i s / d O k t o b e r 1 9 8 1 s e b e s a r 7 , 1 % .

A p a b i l a d i p e r b a t i k a n m a s i n g - m a s i n g k o t a d i I n d o n e s i a , m a k a t e r d a p a t b e b e r a p a k o t a d i m a n a l a j u i n f l a s i n y a l e b i b t i n g g i d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n r a t a -r a t a n a s i o n a l ( l i b a t t a b e l 1 0 ) . K o t a - k o t a y a n g d i m a k s u d a d a l a b J a y a p u r a ( 1 2 , 4 7 % ) , D e n p a s a r ( 1 2 , 2 1 % ) , K u p a n g ( 9 , 8 2 % ) , S u r a b a y a ( 9 , 3 2 % ) , P a l e m b a n g ( 8 , 5 7 % ) , M e d a n ( 8 , 0 9 % ) , Y o g y a k a r t a ( 8 , 0 8 % ) d a n B a n d u n g ( 7 0 3 % ) . D e n g a n m e n u m n n y a l a j u i n f l a s i d a l a m b u l a n N o p e m b e r i n i , l a g i p u l a l a j u i n flasi s e l a m a 1 1 b u l a n t a b u n 1 9 8 1 b a n y a t e r l e t a k p a d a 6 , 8 % , m a k a w a l a u p u n s e l a l u a d a k e c e n d e m n g a n k e n a i k a n b a r g a m e n j e l a n g H a r i N a t a l d a n T a b u n B a m , n a m u n l a j u i n f l a s i u n t u k s e l u r u b t a b u n 1 9 8 1 k i r a n y a d a p a t d i p e r t a b a n -k a n p a d a t i n g k a t a n t a r a 7 - 8 % .

V . 2 . P e r k e m b a n g a n H a r g a B e b e r a p a K o m o d i t i E k s p o r

P e n e r i m a a n e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a s eca ra k e s e l u r u b a n u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 1 b a n y a n a i k s e d i k i t y a i t u d e n g a n 0 , 4 % , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a d i t a b u n s e b e l u m n y a . W a l a u p u n p e n e r i m a a n s e k t o r m i n y a k b u m i n a i k d e n g a n 1 5 , 9 % d a n s e k t o r gas a l a m n a i k d e n g a n 6 , 5 % , a k a n t e t a p i p e n e r i m a a n d a r i s e k t o r d i l u a r m i n y a k d a n gas a l a m t e l a b m e n j a d i s a n g a t b e r k u r a n g y a i t u d e n g a n 3 4 , 3 % . H a m p i r s e m u a k o m o d i t i n o n m i n y a k d a n gas a l a m d a l a m p e r i o d e i n i m e n u r u n d a l a m n i l a i n y a m a u p u n v o l u m e n y a .

F a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g m e m p e n g a m h i t u m i m y a p e n e r i m a a n e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a , s e b e n a m y a b u k a n s e m a t a - m a t a s e b a g a i a k i b a t r e s e s i d u n i a , m e l a i n k a n j u g a d i s e b a b k a n o l e b k e b i j a k s a n a a n p e m e r i n t a b u n t u k m e m b a t a s i k e g i a t a n e k s p o r t e r b a d a p s e r a n g k a i a n k o m o d i t i d i l u a r m i n y a k d a n gas a l a m , b a i k b e r d a s a r k a n p e r t i m b a n g a n k e b u t u b a n p e m b a n g u n a n d a l a m n e g e r i m a u p u n p e r t i m b a n g a n k e l e s t a r i a n s u m b e r d a y a a l a m .

B e r k u r a n g n y a p e n e r i m a a n e k s p o r n o n m i n y a k d a n gas a l a m d a l a m n i l a i y a n g c u k u p b e s a r , d e n g a n s e n d i r i n y a m e n g u r a n g i p e n e r i m a a n d e v i s a . H a l i t u s a n g a t m e m p e n g a r u h i p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a , s e k a l i p u n p e r k e m b a n g a n l a j u i n f l a s i a g a k t e r t o l o n g o l e b k e a d a a n i t u .

394 E K I Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

K a r e n a s e k t o r n o n m i n y a k y a n g p a l i n g m e m p e n g a r u h i t u r u n n y a p e n e r i m a a n e k s p o r , m a k a d i b a w a h i n i d i u n g k a p k a n b e b e r a p a p e r m a s a l a h a n y a n g b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n p e r k e m b a n g a n b a r g a u n t u k b e b e r a p a k o m o d i t i p e n t i n g s e p e r t i ( L i b a t T a b e l 1 1 ) .

(1) K a y u S e l a m a 9 b u l a n p e r t a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 1 n i l a i e k s p o r k a y u m e n u r u n s a m f i a i 5 1 0 % d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e n e r i m a a n e k s p o r d a l a m p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a t a b u n seb e l u m n y a . H a l i t u a d a k a i t a n l a n g s u n g d e n g a n b e r k u r a n g n y a v o l u m e e k s p o r s a m p a i 4 7 , 9 % . B e r k u r a n g n y a v o l u m e e k s p o r s a n g a t t e r a s a s e m e n j a k d i k e l u -a r k a n n y a S K B ( S u r a t K e p u t u s a n B e r s a m a ) 3 M e n t e r i d a n S u r a t K e p u t u s a n B e r s a m a 4 D i r j e n t e n t a n g l a r a n g a n e k s p o r k a y u g e l o n d o n g a n ( l o g s ) d a n p e n y e d i a a n b a b a n b a k u y a n g l e b i b b a n y a k i m t u k i n d u s t r i k a y u d a l a m n e g e r i s e r t a p e n g a l i b a n p r o d u k s i k a y u b u l a t k e p a d a p r o d u k s i k a y u y a n g b e r i n t i k a n k a y u l a p i s .

D e n g a n a d a n y a l a n g k a b k e b i j a k s a n a a n p e m e r i n t a b t e r s e b u t n a m p a k j a d a n y a k e l e s u a n p a d a p i b a k p a r a p e m e g a n g H P H ( H a k P e n g u s a b a a n H u t a n ) y a n g t e r b i a s a b a n y a m e n j u a l k a y u g e l o n d o n g a n sa ja , t e r u t a m a m e r e k a y a n g b e l u m s e m p a t m e m b a n g u n s a w m i U a p a l a g i p a b r i k p l y w o o d , s e d a n g b a s i k e u n t u n g a n d i w a k t u y a n g l a l u s u d a b b a b i s .

K e l e s u a n p a r a p r o d u s e n k a y u g e l o n d o n g a n j u g a m e m p e n g a r u h i p a s a r k a y u d a l a m n e g e r i . S e k a r a n g i n i b a n y a k k a y u y a n g d i j u a l d e n g a n b a r g a d i b a w a b b a r g a r e s m i . S e p e r t i m i s a l n y a K a y u M e r a n t i K a l i m a n t a n y a n g d u l u d i j u a l d i J a w a d e n g a n b a r g a r e s m i n y a R p . 8 0 . 0 0 0 / m 3 , s e k a r a n g i n i d i p a s a r b i s a d i p e r o l e h d e n g a n b a r g a a n t a r a R p . 5 0 . 0 0 0 / m 3 s a m p a i R p . 6 0 . 0 0 0 / m 3 ^ P e n j u a l a n k a y u d i b a w a b b a r g a r e s m i b i s a m e n g a n c a m k e l a n g s u n g a n p r o d u s e i j k a y u y a n g l a i n . A p a l a g i k e a d a a n i n i t e r j a d i p a d a saa t s i t u a s i p e r k a y u a n t e r a s a l e s u . D i p e r k i r a k a n b a b w a k a y u y a n g b i s a d i j u a l d e n g a n b a r g a m u r a b i t u a d a l a b k a y u y a n g s eca ra a d m i n i s t r a t i f t i d a k r e s m i d a n d i a n g k u t d e n g a n k a p a l l a y a r s e b i n g g a b a r g a n y a l e b i b m u r a b .

P e r k e m b a n g a n b a r g a k a y u d i p a s a r d u n i a s e l a m a 5 t a b u n t e r a k b i r m e n u n j u k k a n k e n a i k a n , a k a n t e t a p i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 1 n e g a r a - n e g a r a p e n g h a s i l k a y u m e n g b a d a p i s u a t u p e n u r u n a n p e r m i n t a a n y a n g t a j a m . H a l i t u n a m p a k n y a a d a b u b u n g a n n y a d e n g a n l e s u n y a u s a b a - u s a b a b a n g u n a n , t e r u t a m a d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t s e b a g a i a k i b a t m e l o n j a k n y a s u k u b u n g a d i n e g e r i ( e r s e b u t .

(2) K a r e t S e t e l a b b a r g a k a r e t t e r u s n a i k s e l a m a w a k t u 1 9 7 1 s a m p a i d e n g a n 1 9 8 0 , m a k a p e r k e m b a n g a n b a r g a k a r e t d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 1 m e n u r u n s e c a r a t e r u s

E K I VoL XXIX, No. 4, December 1981 3 9 5

m e n e r u s d i p a s a r l u a r n e g e r i m a u p u n d a l a m n e g e r i . H a r g a k a r e t R S S I d i S i n g a p u r a p a d a a w a l J u l i t e r c a t a t S $ 2 3 2 , 5 p e r k g , a k h i r J u l i m e n u r u n m e n j a d i S $ 2 2 0 p e r k g , p a d a a w a l b u l a n A g u s t u s S $ 2 2 2 0 p e r k g d a n a k b i r b u l a n A g u s t u s 2 1 7 p e r k g .

I N R O ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l N a t u r a l R u b b e r O r g a n i z a t i o n ) y a n g m e r u p a k a n s e b u a b o r g a n i s a s i k a r e t d u n i a , d a l a m b u l a n A g u s t u s 1 9 8 1 m e n g u m u m k a n n i a t n y a u n t u k m e m b u a t s t o c k p e n y a n g g a , a k a n t e t a p i b a l i t u b a r u d i m u l a i d a l a m b u l a n N o p e m b e r . I N R O m e U p u t i n e g a r a - n e g a r a p r o d u s e n d a n k o n s u m e n k a r e t a l a m . U n t u k d a p a t m e w u j u d k a n s t o c k p e n y a n g g a k a r e t , b a d a n i n i b a r u s m e n a r i k u a n g k o n t r i b u s i d u l u d a r i a n g g a u t a - a n g g a u t a n y a . P e r s e t u j u a n y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n b i a s a m e m e r l u k a n w a k t u y a n g l a m a .

H a r g a k a r e t d i d a l a m n e g e r i m e r o s o t s e k a l i s e b a g a i a k i b a t m e r o s o t n y a b a r g a k a r e t d i p a s a r a n d u n i a . K a l a u t a d i n y a d i S u m a t e r a U t a r a ( L a n g k a t ) b a r g a 1 k g k a r e t b i s a d i t u k a r d e n g a n 1 k g b e r a s m a k a s e k a r a n g u n t u k m e n d a p a t k a n 1 k g b e r a s b a m s d i t u k a r d e n g a n 3 s a m p a i 4 k g k a r e t . H a r g a k a r e t p e r k g b a n y a s e k i t a r R p . 7 0 , - . P e m e r i n t a b b e m s a b a u n t u k m e m p e r b a i k i b a r g a k a r e t d e n g a n j a l a n m e m b e l i k a r e t m e l a l u i I N R A { I n t e r n a t i o n a l Rubber Association). B a d a n i n i t i d a k sa ja m e m b e l i k a r e t d i n e g a r a p e n g h a s i l , t e t a p i j u g a d i p a s a r b e b a s s e p e r t i d i S i n g a p u r a . D a l a m p a d a i t u I N R A b a n y a m a u m e m b e U k a r e t d e n g a n m u t u y a n g b a i k , s e p e r t i S I T I s a m p a i S I T 1 1 , s e d a n g m u t u k a r e t I n d o n e s i a s e k a r a n g i n i m a s i b r e n d a b .

(3) K o p i S e j a k d i t e t a p k a n n y a k u o t a e k s p o r o l e b I C O ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o f f e e O r g a n i z a t i o n ) u n t u k n e g a r a - n e g a r a p e n g h a s i l k o p i y a n g t e r g a b u n g d a l a m o r g a n i s a s i i t u , m a k a I n d o n e s i a s e b a g a i s a l a b s a t u n e g a r a a n g g a u t a m e n g b a d a p i k e s u l i t a n -k e s u b t a n s e b a g a i a k i b a t k e l e b i h a n p r o d u k s i d i p a s a r a n d u n i a . M u l a - m u l a u n t u k I n d o n e s i a d i t e t a p k a n k u o t a k o p i s ebesa r 2 4 6 0 r i b u t o n . D e n g a n a d a n y a r e s e s i y a n g m e l a n d a d u n i a , m a k a d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 0 k u o t a i t u d i k u r a n g i m e n j a d i 1 9 2 r i b u t o n . •

D i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n k e a d a a n s e b e l u m n y a a d a n y a k u o t a , e k s p o r k o p i I n d o n e s i a m e n u m n s e k i t a r 2 5 r i b u s a m p a i 3 0 r i b u t o n . P a d a b a l p r o d u k s i I n d o n e s i a s e t i a p t a b u n m e n c a p a i 3 0 0 r i b u s a m p a i 3 5 0 r i b u t o n . S e b a g i a n k e l e b i h a n p r o d u k s i i t u d i j u a l k e n e g a r a - n e g a r a n o n k u o t a . D a l a m p a d a i t u k e a d a a n b a r g a k o p i d i p a s a r a n d a l a m n e g e r i s e m a k i n m e m b u r u k .

L a g i p u l a I C O d a l a m s i d a n g n y a b u l a n S e p t e m b e r 1 9 8 1 m e m u t u s -k a n b a b w a k u o t a e k s p o r b a g i I n d o n e s i a d i t u m n k a n d a r i 1 9 2 ribu t o n m e n j a d i 1 3 8 ribu t o n . A k i b a t p e n u r u n a n k u o t a i n i i a l a b b a b w a s e j u m l a b 3 0 ribu t o n s a m p a i 5 0 ribu t o n k o p i t i d a k b i s a d i p a s a r k a n , s e b i n g g a b a r g a k o p i d i d a l a m

3 9 6 EKI, Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

n e g e r i l e b i h m e r o s o t y a i t u d a r i R p . 9 0 0 / k g m e n j a d i R p . 5 0 0 / k g . D a l a m h u b u n g a n i n i p e m e r i n t a b d i s a m p i n g t e r n s m e n g u s a b a k a n p e n j u a l a n k e n e g a r i n o n k u o t a s e r t a m e n g a d a k a n p e n d e k a t a n d e n g a n n e g a r a - n e g a r a p r o d u s e n l a m n y a , t e l a b m e n u n j u k b e b e r a p a p e s e r o n i a g a s e p e r t i P T . P a n c a N i a g a d a i P T . K e r t a N i a g a u n t u k m e l a k u k a n p e m b e U a n k o p i s e c a r a b e s a r - b e s a r a n .

H a r g a k o p i d i p a s a r a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 0 m e n u m n d e n g a i 1 , 8 % d i b a n d i n g k a n t a b u n 1 9 7 9 , y a i t u d a r i S i n $ 4 1 5 / p i c u l d i t a b u n 1 9 7 9 m e n j a d i S i n $ 4 0 7 , 5 / p i c u l d i t a b u n 1 9 8 0 . B a t a s a n e k s p o r y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e i I C O i t u d i m a k s u d k a n u n t i i k m e n j a g a t i n g k a t b a r g a k o p i d i p a s a r a n d u n i j , d a l a m b a l k e n a i k a n p r o d u k s i d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a p r o d u s e n k o p i t i d a k d i i m b a u j i o l e b k e n a i k a n k o n s u m s i y a n g m e m a d a i . A k a n t e t a p i b a g a i m a n a p u n j u g : , p e n e t a p a n d a n p e m b a g i a n k u o t a e k s p o r s e p e r t i s e k a r a n g i n i d i r a s a k a n s a n g a t t i d a k a d i l d a r i s u d u t k e p e n t i n g a n I n d o n e s i a d a n b e b e r a p a n e g a r a p r o d u s e i l a i n n y a . :

8 ( 4 ) M i n y a k K e l a p a S a w i t E k s p o r m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t s u d a b s a n g a t m e n u m n . M u l a - m u l a p r o d u k i k e l a p a s a w i t a d a l a b u n t u k e k s p o r , y a i t u 9 0 % d i e k s p o r s e d a n g s i s a n y a u n t u c k o n s u m s i d a l a m n e g e r i . A k a n t e t a p i s e j a k t a b u n 1 9 7 8 v o l u m e k o m o d i t i u i m e n u r u n s e c a r a d r a s t i s . H a l i t u a d a l a b a k i b a t k e b i j a k s a n a a n p e m e r i n t a i m e l a l u i S u r a t K e p u t u s a n B e r s a m a M e n t e r i P e r d a g a n g a n d a n K o p e r a s i , M e n t e r i P e r t a n i a n s e r t a M e n t e r i P e r i n d u s t r i a n m e n g e n a i a l o k a s i d a n p e n y e d i a a i m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t u n t u k k e b u t u b a n d a l a m n e g e r i .

K o n s u m s i m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t r a t a - r a t a n a i k d e n g a n 2 1 2 r i b u t o i p e r t a b u n . H a l i t u d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a a d a n y a p e n g a l i b a n b a b a n b a k u m i n y a c k e l a p a k e p a d a m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t . S e b e l u m k e t e n t u a n y a n g d i m a k s u d < i a t a s d i b e r l a k u k a n h a m p i r s e l u m b p r o d u s e n m i n y a k m e m a k a i k e l a p a ( k o p n ) s e b a g a i b a h a n b a k u n y a . D i s a m p i n g u n t u k m i n y a k g o r e n g , m a k a m i n y a k k e l ; -p a s a w i t d i p e r g u n a k a n j u g a u n m k k e p e r l u a n i n d u s t r i m a r g a r i n e , r o t i , b i s k u i ; , s a b u n m a n d i d a n l a i n - l a i n n y a .

D a l a m 6 t a b u n t e r a k b i r i n i b a r g a m i n y a k s a w i t d i p a s a r i n t e m a s i c -n a l n a i k d a r i U S S 3 9 7 , 5 p e r l o n g t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 5 m e n j a d i U S S 6 2 0 p e r l o n g t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 8 0 . A k a n t e t a p i a k b i r - a k b u i n i b a r g a m i n y a k S a w t d i p a s a r d u n i a c e n d e r u n g u n t u k m e n u m n . H a l i t u d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a A m e r i k a S e r i k a t m e n g a d a k a n e m b a r g o d a g a n g t e r b a d a p U n i S o v i e t s e b i n g g a p e r s e d i a a i m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t m e n u m p u k . H a r g a m i n y a k k e l a p a

Untuk pembahasan lebih mendalam tentang masalah minyak nabati, lihat Tinjauan Triwulan dalam Majalah E K I , Vol. X X I X . No. 1/Maret 1981.

E K I Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981 3S7

s a w i t d a l a m n e g e r i d a l a m 6 t a h u n t e r a k h i r n a i k r a t a - r a t a d e n g a n 1 2 % p e r t a h u n , y a i t u d a r i R p . 1 2 8 p e r k g d i t a h u n 1 9 7 5 m e n j a d i R p . 2 0 0 p e r k g d i t a h u n 1 9 8 0 . D a l a m t a h u n 1 9 8 1 h a r g a d a l a m n e g e r i m e n u r u n .

P e r k e m b a n g a n b a r g a m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t y a n g m e n u r u n , s e l a i n seb a g a i a k i b a t p e n g a m b h a r p d i p a s a r l u a r n e g e r i , t e t a p i j u g a d i s e b a b k a n o l e b " s t a b i l i s a s i " k o n s u m s i m i n y a k g o r e n g y a n g d i a t u r o l e b p e m e r i n t a b d e n g a n j a l a n a l o k a s i m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t y a n g d i u n g k a p k a n d i a t a s .

(5) L a d a I n d o n e s i a m e r u p a k a n n e g a r a p r o d u s e n l a d a n o m o r 2 d i d u n i a s e s u d a b M a l a y s i a . S e b e l u m P e r a n g D u n i a 11 p r o d u k s i l a d a I n d o n e s i a a d a l a b y a n g t e r b e s a r , y a i t u r a t a - r a t a 5 8 r i b u t o n p e r t a b u n a t a u k u r a n g l e b i b 6 8 % d a r i p r o d u k s i d u n i a . A k a n t e t a p i s e s u d a b P e r a n g D u n i a k e 11 k e d u d u k a n n y a t e r g e s e r o l e b M a l a y s i a s e b i n g g a I n d o n e s i a k i n i m e n d u d u k l t e m p a t k e d u a .

D a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 9 p r o d u k s i l a d a I n d o n e s i a m e n i n g k a t r a t a - r a t a 1 2 , 7 % p e r t a b u n , d a r i 1 7 r i b u t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 0 m e n j a d i 5 0 r i b u t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 9 . K e n a i k a n p r o d u k s i t e r s e b u t t e r j a d i d a l a m 5 t a b u n t e r a k b b s e b a g a i b a s i l p r o g r a m r e h a b i l i t a s i d a n p e n g e m b a n g a n u s a b a d i b i d a n g l a d a d a l a m P e l i t a I I . P a d a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 p r o d u k s i l a d a d i p e r k i r a k a n a k a n m e l a m p a u i p r o d u k s i s e b e l u m P e r a n g D u n i a I I . P e n e r i m a a n e k s p o r l a d a s e l a m a 6 t a b u n t e r a k b i r ( t a b u n 1 9 7 5 — 1 9 8 0 ) m e n g a l a m i k e n a i k a n r a t a - r a t a 2 8 , 4 % p e r t a b u n , s e d a n g k a n v o l u m e e k s p o r n y a n a i k d e n g a n r a t a - r a t a 2 1 0 % p e r t a b u n .

F l u k t u a s i b a r g a l a d a d i p a s a r d u n i a c u k u p m e m p e n g a m h i p e n e r i m a a n e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a . N i l a i e k s p o r t a b u n 1 9 7 9 m e n u m n 3 2 , 2 % , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 7 8 . S e l a n j u t n y a n i l a i e k s p o r t a b u n 1 9 8 0 n a i k d e n g a n 9 0 % d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 7 9 . F l u k t u a s i b a r g a m e n g e n a i k o m o d i t i i n i d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a b e l u m a d a n y a k e r j a s a m a d a n k e s e r a g a m a n k o n t r a k p e r d a g a n g a n a n t a r a n e g a r a - n e g a r a p r o d u s e n d a n n e g a r a k o n s u m e n l a d a .

S e l a i n i t u , t i n g k a t p r o d u k s i n e g a r a - n e g a r a p r o d u s e n d a l a m 2 t a b u n t e r a k b i r i n i n a i k d e n g a n b e r a r t i , s e b i n g g a t e r j a d i over supply d i p a s a r d u n i a , d i l a i n p i b a k p e r k e m b a n g a n t i n g k a t k o n s u m s i d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g s a n g a t l a m b a t . K e a d a a n p a s a r d u n i a b a g i l a d a m u l a i t e r a s a j e n u b s e j a k p e r t e n g a h a n t a b i m 1 9 7 8 . P a d a w a k t u i t u b a r g a l a d a m e r o s o t d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t i n g k a t b a r g a t a b u n s e b e l u m n y a . T a b u n 1 9 7 9 b a r g a l a d a s e m a k i n m e n u m n . P a d a p e r t e n g a h a n t a b i m 1 9 8 0 , M a s y a r a k a t L a d a ( P e p p e r C o m m u n i t y ) m e n g a d a k a n s i d a n g u n t u k m e m b a b a s s o a l - s o a l y a n g b e r b u b u n g a n d e n g a n s t u d i p a s a r a n l a d a d u n i a g u n a m e n c e g a h t e r j a d i n y a fluktuasi b a r g a y a n g m e m u k u l p e t a n i m a u p u n e k s p o r t i r l a d a d a r i n e g a r a - n e g a r a p r o d u s e n .

3 9 8 EKI , Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

(6) T i m a h S e j a k t a h u n 1 9 7 5 s a m p a i t a h u n 1 9 8 0 p e n e r i m a a n e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a d a i k o m o d i t i t i m a h s e l a l u m e n g a l a m i k e n a i k a n . T a h u n 1 9 7 5 e k s p o r t i m a h l n d ( -n e s i a m e n g b a s i l k a n U S S 1 6 8 j u t a d a n d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 0 m e n c a p a i U S S 4 6 0 , 5 j u t a . K e n a i k a n i t u s e l a i n d i s e b a b k a n o l e h j u m l a h v o l u m e e k s p o r y a n g m i -n i n g k a t , d i t u n j a n g p u l a o l e b p e r k e m b a n g a n b a r g a t i m a b d i p a s a r d u n i a y a r g s e l a l u m e n i n g k a t s e l a m a p e r i o d e y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n .

S e l a m a 9 b u l a n p e r t a m a t a h u n 1 9 8 1 p e n e r i m a a n e k s p o r t i m a b I n d o n t -s i a m e n u r u n d e n g a n 1 0 , 5 % , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a d i t a b i n s e b e l u m n y a . V o l u m e e k s p o r t i m a b m a s i b m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 3 , 6 % d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a t a b u n l a l u . A k a n t e t a p i n i l a i p e n e r i m a . n e k s p o r m e n j a d i b e r k u r a n g o l e h k a r e n a m e n u r u n n y a k o n s u m s i t i m a b A m e r i l S e r i k a t ( n e g a r a k o n s u m e n t i m a b t e r b e s a r d i d u n i a ) . S e l a i n i t u , p e l e p a s i n c a d a n g a n t i m a b y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e b A m e r i k a S e r i k a t d i t a m b a b d e n g i n s u r p l u s p r o d u k s i d i b e b e r a p a n e g a r a p r o d u s e n , m e n y e b a b k a n b a r g a t i m i b d u n i a s e m a k i n m e r o s o t . H a r g a t i m a b m e r o s o t d a r i r a t a - r a t a U S S 1 6 . 2 5 0 p u m e t r i k t o n m e n j a d i U S S 1 3 , 5 0 p e r m e t r i k t o n d a l a m t r i w u l a n p e r t a m a t a b i n 1 9 8 1 . S e l a n j u t n y a d a l a m t r i w u l a n k e d u a t a b u n 1 9 8 1 b a r g a r a t a - r a t a j a t i b p a d a t i n g k a t U S S 1 2 . 5 0 0 p e r m e t r i k t o n .

N i l a i p e n e r i m a a n e k s p o r d i b u l a n S e p t e m b e r 1 9 8 1 m e n u n j u k k n k e n a i k k a n s ebesa r U S S 3 , 9 j u t a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n b u l a n A g u s t u s . A k ; n t e t a p i v o l u m e e k s p o r b u l a n S e p t e m b e r m e n u r u n d e n g a n 1 1 0 0 t o n d i b a n d i r g-k a n d e n g a n b u l a n A g u s t u s . B e r t a m b a b n y a n i l a i p e n e r i m a a n e k s p o r t i m a b d i b u l a n S e p t e m b e r 1 9 8 1 d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a b a r g a t i m a b d i p a s a r d u n i a m e n c a p a i t i t i k t e r t i n g g i d a r i b a r g a p a t o k a n t i m a b y a n g d i t e t a p k a n o l e b D e w ; n T i m a b I n t e r n a s i o n a l . K e n a i k a n b a r g a t i m a b t e r s e b u t m e n u n j u k k a n b a b \ c a p e r m i n t a a n d u n i a a k a n k o m o d i t i i n i y a n g t a c i i n y a m e l e m a b k i n i n a m p k m e n j a d i k u a t l a g i . S a m p a i d e n g a n p e r t e n g a h a n b u l a n N o p e m b e r 1 9 8 1 b a r ; a t i m a b d i M a l a y s i a m e n c a p a i M S 3 5 , 7 6 p e r k g s e d a n g k a n b a r g a d i p a s a r da la n\ n e g e r i s ebesa r R p , 1 0 . 0 2 3 , 9 6 p e r k g . T i n g k a t b a r g a y a n g t e r t i n g g i i n i m e n u r r t j p e m e r i n t a b b i s a d i m a n f a a t k a n u n t u k p e n j u a l a n k o n t r a k b e r j a n g k a p a n j a p g m a u p u n p e n j u a l a n b e b a s d a r i p e r s e c b a a n y a n g a d a .

EKL Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

TABEL 11 PERKEMBANGAN HARGA BEBERAPA KOMODITI EKSPOR Dl PASAR INTERNASIONAL

1970 - 1980

Jenis Komodit i Keterangan Satu an 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Karet R S S I C I F New York U S S Cent/ lb 16,875 16,75 20,25 49,50 30,75 34,25 38,75 41,25 54,0 67,14 68,5

K o p i Robusta Singapura Sin $ Picnl^ 113 98 90 90 134 183 600 345 275 415 407,5

Minyak Sawit Q F London U S S L ton 276 219 213 575 680 397A 460 535 622,5 635 620

Bgi Sawit C I F London S L t o n ' 75,5 50,25 50,5 155 155 94,6 317,25 300 440 420 350

L a d a Putih a F New Y o r k U S S Cent/ lb 50 65 68 115 100 88 105 146 140 135 • 110

L a d a Hitam C I F New Y o r k U S S Cent/ lb 55 50 52 6 1 93 80 102 112 97 95 • 89

K a y u T o k y o m ' 1000 Y 19,2 23,15 61,72 71,25 65,5 83,5 106,5 121

T i m a h London S L ton 1,439 1411 1602 1860 3050 3071 5125 6640 6825 6200

Sumber Bank Indonesia Laporan Mingguan 15 Oktober 1981 Bank Indonesia Laporan Mingguan 8 Mei 1980

Keterangan Harga disini adalah harga akhir Desember

*) Angka sementara

2) Sejak Mei 1980 dalam Sin S/100 kg.

V I . Masalah HTiasalah Khusus

V I . l . O P E C

S i d a n g k h u s u s O P E C t a n g g a l 2 9 O k t o b e r 1 9 8 1 d i J e n e w a m e n c a p a i k e s e p a t a n b u l a t t e n t a n g p e n y a t u a n h a r g a m i n y a k p a d a t i n g k a t $ 3 4 p e r b a r r e l u n t u k A r a b i a n L i g h t C r u d e s e b a g a i p a t o k a n d a s a r a t a u " m a r k e r ". K e s e p a k a a n t e r s e b u t b e r l a n g s u n g s a m p a i a k h i r t a h u n 1 9 8 2 y a n g a k a n d a t a n g . S a t u sa n i l a i n h a l i t u d i b a r a p k a n d a p a t m e m b a n t u a n g g o t a - a n g g o t a O P E C u n t u k m e n ;u a s a i k e m b a l i p e n g a w a s a n b a r g a s e b a g i a n m i n y a k d u n i a ; s e t i d a k - t i d a k n y a u n t u k m e n c e g a h b a r g a m i n y a k d i p a s a r d u n i a m e n u m n l e b i b l a n j u t . K i n i b a g i m i n y a k r i n g a n A r a b S a u d i y a n g s e m u l a t e r l e t a k p a d a U S S 3 2 p e r b a r r e l di n a i k k a n d e n g a n U S $ 2 p e r b a r r e l . S e l a i n i t u k i n i t e r b u k a p e l u a n g y a n g l e ) i b e s a r u n t u k m e m b i c a r a k a n s t r a t e g i j a n g k a p a n j a n g O P E C d i p e r t e m u a n q i e t e m u a n y a n g a k a n d a t a n g .

K e s t a b i l a n d i p a s a r d u n i a m e n g e n a i m i n y a k b u m i d a p a t m e m b a n t u i i n t u k m e n g a t a s i r e s e s i p e r e k o n o m i a n y a n g d i s e r t a i o l e b t i n g k a t i n f l a s i y a n g t i i§ -g i . P e n y a t u a n b a r g a m i n y a k a t a s d a s a r y a n g d i u n g k a p k a n d i a t a s m e n i n g k a k a n b a r g a r a t a - r a t a m i n y a k O P E C d e n g a n 1 % s a m p a i 2 % a t a u s e k i t a r 3 5 s i r r p a i 7 0 A m e r i c a n d o l l a r c e n t p e r b a r r e l . P e r s e t u j u a n t e n t a n g s e l i s i b b a g i {price differentials) d i p u t u s k a n d a l a m s i d a n g A b u D b a b i t a n g g a l 1 1 D e s e m l e r 1 9 8 1 m e n g e n a i b e r b a g a i j e n i s m i n y a k b u m i m e n c e r m i n k a n k w a l i t a s d a r i je |ni |s m i n y a k O P E C y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n . H a r g a p a t o k a n m i n y a k O P E C sebesa r U S S 3 4 p e r b a r r e l d a p a t d i t a m b a b |d« n g a n d i f f e r e n t i a l t e r t i n g g i s e b e s a r U S S 4 p e r b a r r e l a t a u d i k u r a n g i d i f f e r e n i d t e r r e n d a b s e b e s a r U S $ 3 p e r b a r r e l . A r t i n y a , h a r g a m i n y a k O P E C t e r t i n l g g i t e r l e t a k p a d a U S $ 3 8 p e r b a r r e l d a n t e r r e n d a b p a d a U S $ 3 1 p e r b a r r e l .

M i n y a k L y b i a , A l j a z a i r d a n I n d o n e s i a ( R a n t a u / N o r t b S u m a t e r a n C m i q ) t e r m a s u k m i n y a k O P E C d e n g a n b a r g a t e r t i n g g i y a i t u U S $ 3 8 p e r b a r r e l . A n y a k b e r a t A r a b t e r m a s u k m i n y a k O P E C d e n g a n b a r g a t e r e n d a b y a i t u U ! > £ 3 1 p e r b a r r e l . H a r g a m i n y a k I n d o n e s i a d i d a s a r k a n a t a s p a t o k a n b a r g a m i n j a c M i n a s , y a n g d i b e r i d i f f e r e n t i a l U S $ 1 . 0 0 , s e b i n g g a b a r g a n y a U S $ 3 5 . 0 0 p e r b a r r e l . L a i n J a i n m i n y a k m e n t a b d i b e r i d i f f e r e n t i a l d i a t a s b a r g a b a k u i n i .

9 Lihat j u ^ Tinjauan-tinjauan Triwulan dalam m^alah E K I , Vol XXDC, No. Juni 1981 dan Vol. XXDC, No. 3, September 1981.

E K L Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981 K l

I n d o n e s i a s e l a m a i n i m e n g i m p o r m i n y a k d a r i S a u d i A r a b i a s e b a n y a k 1 0 0 . 0 0 0 b a r r e l s e h a r i u n t u k p e n g i l a n g a n m i n y a k m a u p u n b a h a n b a k a r m i n y a k d a r i b e b e r a p a n e g a r a A r a b l a i n n y a d a n K u w a i t . D e n g a n n a i k n y a b a r g a m i n y a k S a u d i A r a b i a d e n g a n U S S 2 p e r b a r r e l , I n d o n e s i a k i n i b a r u s m e n a n g g u n g t a m b a h a n b i a y a i m p o r m i n y a k . M a s a l a h y a n g d i b a d a p i I n d o n e s i a i a l a b , b U a b a r g a B B M d a l a m n e g e r i t e t a p d i p e r t a b a n k a n p a d a t i n g k a t y a n g s e k a r a n g , m a k a s u b s i d i u n t u k B B M y a n g b a r u s d i t a n g g u n g P e m e r i n t a b d a n y a n g p a d a w a k t u i n i s u d a b m e m b e n g k a k , a k a n b e r t a m b a b b e s a r l a g i ( s u b s i d i B B M t a b u n f i s k a l 1 9 8 1 - 1 9 8 2 d i p e r k i r a k a n R p . 1,5 t r i l y u n )

D a l a m r a n g k a k e s e p a k a t a n b a r g a b a k u m i n y a k p a d a t i n g k a t U S $ 3 4 p e r b a r r e l y a n g d i s e b u t d i a t a s , t i d a k a k a n a d a p e r u b a b a n p a d a b a r g a j u a l m i n y a k I n d o n e s i a . O l e b s e b a b i t u , a g a r d a p a t d i p e r t a b a n k a n p r o s e s p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i , p r o d u k s i d a n e k s p o r n o n m i n y a k b a r u s t e r u s d i t i n g k a t k a n s u p a y a d a p a t m e n u n j a n g a d a n y a p o s i s i c a d a n g a n d e v i s a y a n g k u a t d a n p e n e r i m a a n a n g g a r a n y a n g m e m a d a i .

V I . 2 . M a s a l a h B a t u B a r a

S e s u a i d e n g a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n e n e r g i n a s i o n a l u n t u k m e n g a d a k a n d i v e r s i f i k a s i s u m b e r e n e r g i , t e l a b d i m u l a i p e m a n f a a t a n b a t u b a r a s e b a g a i s u m b e r e n e r g i l a i n y a n g p e n t i n g b a g i I n d o n e s i a . D a l a m d a s a w a r s a 1 9 8 0 p e r m i n t a a n d a l a m n e g e r i a k a n b a t u b a r a d i p e r k i r a k a n a k a n m e l a m p a u i p r o d u k s i . P r o y e k s i p r o d u k s i t a b u n 1 9 9 0 d i p e r k i r a k a n 1 0 , 8 j u t a , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p r o d u k s i t a -1 9 8 1 y a n g h a n y a b e r j u m l a b 4 0 5 . 0 0 0 t o n . D i l a i n p i b a k p e r m i n t a a n d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 1 y a n g b a n y a s ebesa r 3 8 3 . 0 0 0 t o n d i p e r k i r a k a n a k a n m e n i n g k a t d i t a b u n 1 9 9 0 m e n j a d i 1 5 , 8 j u t a t o n . S e b i n g g a p a d a t a b u n 1 9 9 0 m a s i b a k a n a d a k e k u r a n g a n s e b e s a r 5 j u t a t o n b a t u b a r a y a n g k i r a n y a m a s i b p e r l u d i i m p o r . D i m a s a d a t a n g p e r m i n t a a n a k a n b a t u b a r a y a n g t e r b e s a r a d a l a b u n t u k p e m -b a n g k i t t e n a g a l i s t r i k d a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n . P e m a n f a a t a n b a t u b a r a s e b a g a i s u m b e r e n e r g i u n t u k r u m a b t a n g g a d a n i n d u s t r i , s e l a m a i n i m e n g a l a m i b a m b a t a n k a r e n a t i d a k d a p a t b e r s a i n g d e n g a n b a r g a b a b a n b a k a r m i n y a k y a n g m u r a h k a r e n a s u b s i d i . P r o d u k s i b a t u b a r a y a n g d i t a b u n 1 9 8 1 b e r j u m l a b 4 0 5 . 0 0 0 t o n b a t u b a r a u a p , t e r u t a m a b e r a s a l d a r i B u k i t A s a m d i S u m a t e r a S e l a t a n , b e m p a " l i g n i t i c d a n a n t r a c i t i c c o a l " , d a n d a r i O m b i l i n d i S u m a t e r a B a r a t b e r u p a " b a r d c o a l " .

C a d a n g a n b a t u b a r a I n d o n e s i a m e n u m t d a t a y a n g d i k e t a b u i d i p e r k i r a k a n 1 0 m i l y a r t o n d i S u m a t e r a S e l a t a n d a n s e k i t a r 6 m i l y a r t o n d i K a l i m a n t a n . D a t a m e n g e n a i c a d a n g a n b a t u b a r a i n i d a p a t b e m b a h m e n u m t t i n g k a t k e g i a t a n e k s p l o r a s i , y a n g t e m t a m a d i p e n g a m h i o l e b p e r k e m b a n g a n p a s a r d a n k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i . K e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i m e n y a n g k u t p e n e l i t i a n - p e n e l i t i a n y a n g m e m p e r b e s a r k e m u n g k i n a n u n t u k m e m b u a t gas b a t u b a r a d a n b a b a n b a -

402 EKI , Vol. XXIX, No. 4, December 1981

( O i l

t i l i i

i a n

l a r -1 a: a

I a n

k a r s i n t e t i s d a r i " s t e a m c o a l " , p e m a k a i a n b a t u b a r a k a d a r r e n d a h ( b r o w n a t a u " l i g i u t i c c o a l " ) u n t u k t u n g k u - t u n g k u p e m b a k a r a n . K e m u n g k i n a n m u n g k i n a n y a n g t e r b u k a d a l a m p e m a n f a a t a n b a t u b a r a b e r a r t i b a h w a e k o n o m i s b a t u b a r a j u g a m e n i n g k a t .

M a s a l a h y a n g d i b a d a p i I n d o n e s i a s e b a g a i p r o d u s e n m i n y a k b u m i b a t u b a r a i a l a h p e n i n g k a t a n p e n g g u n a a n b a t u b a r a d i d a l a m n e g e r i , d i s a m j u g i t u m e n e k a n k e c e p a t a n k e n a i k a n k o n s u m s i m i n y a k b u m i y a n g r a t a - r a t a b e r k i sa r p a d a 1 2 % s e t a h u n . M i n y a k m u r a h m e n y e b a b k a n p e m a k a i a n y a n g b e r l e b i h a n o l e h m a s y a r a k a t d a n m e m b a t a s i k e m u n g k i n a n p e m a n f a a t a n s u m b e r - s j i r n -b e r e n e r g i l a i n y a n g s a n g a t d i p e r l u k a n .

P r o s p e k b a t u b a r a m u l a i c e r a b k a r e n a a d a k e c e n d e m n g a n k e n a i k a n g a n y a , s e d a n g k a n p e r m i n t a a n n y a j u g a m e n i n g k a t . T i n g k a t b a r g a b a t u y a n g l e b i b tinggi m e n i m b u l k a n r a n g s a n g a n u n t u k e k s p l o r a s i , i n v e s t a s i p r o d u k s i . A p a y a n g t e l a b c b m u l a i d e w a s a i n i d i b i d a n g b a t u b a r a b a r u m e n l p a -k a n s u a t u p e r m u l a a n . L a n g k a b - l a n g k a b k o n g k r i t y a n g t e l a h ( b a m b i l p e m e r i i -t a h m e l i p u t i p r o y e k - p r o y e k p e r l u a s a n d u a p u s a t p e n a m b a n g a n y a i t u m e r e b a -b i U t i r d a n m e m p e r l u a s t a m b a n g b a t u b a r a B u k i t A s a m d i S u m a t e r a d a n t a m b a n g O m b i l i n d i S u m a t e r a B a r a t s e r t a m e m b a n g u n j a r i n g a n j a l a n r e t a a p i u n t u k m e n g a n g k u t b a t u b a r a k e u j u n g s e l a t a n P u l a u S u m a t e r a d i t p r j i -p a t t r a n s i t .

M u l a i t a b u n 1 9 8 1 P N . T a m b a n g B a t u B a r a O m b i U n ( P N . T B O ) y a n } k a r a n g b e r p r o d u k s i 2 0 0 r i b u t o n p e r t a h u n a k a n d i k e m b a n g k a n . P r o d u k s i f i ) p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 3 a k a n m e n i n g k a t m e n j a d i 4 0 0 r i b u t o n d a n d i t a b u n 1 a k a n m e n c a p a i 7 2 0 r i b u t o n p e r t a b u n . S e l u r u b p r o d u k s i n y a a k a n t e r s d r i di P u l a u S u m a t e r a u n t u k P T . S e m e n P a d a n g d a n b e r b a g a i i n d u s t r i l a i m y a P e n g e m b a n g a n s e t e m s n y a a k a n d i l a k u k a n d a l a m t a b a p k e d u a s a m p a i t a b u n d e l a p a n p u l u b a n . P N . T a m b a n g B a t u B a r a O m b i l i n p a d a w a k t u a k a n b e r p r o d u k s i 1 ,3 j u t a t o n . T a m b a h a n p r o d u k s i a k a n d i k i i i m k e l u a r m a t e r a d a n s e b a g i a n k e c i l a k a n d i e k s p o r .

S e l i tc

D e n g a n t u j u a n u n t u k m e m p e r b e s a r p r o d u k s i b a t u b a r a d a l a m u s a b a k o n s e r v a s i m i n y a k u n t u k e k s p o r t e l a b d l s e t u j u l p u l a u n t u k mengemban§ Ic; n d a e r a b - d a e r a b b a t u b a r a d i K a l i m a n t a n . S e j a k b u l a n O k t o b e r 1 9 8 1 P N . T b a n g B a t u B a r a t e l a h m e n g a d a k a n 3 b u a h p e r j a n j i a n p e n a m b a n g a n d e r k o n t r a k t o r a s i n g . P e k e r j a a n t e r b e s a r a k a n d i l a k u k a n P N . T a m b a n g B a t u d e n g a n P T . A m t m i n I n d o n e s i a y a n g m e n d a p a t k o n s e s i u n t u k m e n s u r v e y , p l o r a s i d a n m e n a m b a n g d a e r a b s e l u a s 1 2 . 6 0 0 k m 2 d i d e k a t B a n j a r m a s i n . j a n j i a n b a g i J i a s U y a n g k e d u a d i l a k u k a n o l e h P T . U t a h I n d o n e s i a u n t u k s e l u a s 8 . 0 0 0 k m 2 d i K a l i m a n t a n T i m u r . P e r j a n j i a n k e t i g a d e n g a n s e b u a b b a p a t u n g a n ( 5 0 - 5 0 ) a n t a r a A g j p O v e r s e a s L t d , d a r i I t a l y d a n C o n s o l i d a f i C o a l o f I n d o n e s i a L t d , d a n m e U p u t i k o n s e s i b a t u b a r a d i d a e r a h s e l u a s 2

E K I Vol. XXIX, No. 4, De<»mber 1981

) S 5

a k h i r i i u

S i -

i n -g < n

L a a ;k|s-q r -

d a ^ r i j b i s b -

n k b -

sb-a

( 0 3

k m 2 d i K a l i m a n t a n T i m u r L a u t d e k a t S a b a h d a n d a e r a b s e l u a s 5 . 3 1 0 k m 2 d i b a g i a n T i m u r d a r i K a l i m a n t a n T e n g a b d e k a t S a m a r i n d a . P e n a n d a t a n g a n a n k o n t r a k J c o n t r a k b a g i - b a s i l i n i m e m p a k a n s u a t u k e j a d i a n y a n g p e n t i n g d a l a m p e r k e m b a n g a n e n e r g i d i I n d o n e s i a .

D a l a m t a b u n - t a b u n t e r a k b i r p e r k e m b a n g a n p e r d a g a n g a n b a t u b a r a d u n i a s e m a k i n m e n i n g k a t . P e r k e m b a n g a n p e r d a g a n g a n d u n i a t e n t a n g b a t u b a r a d i b a r a p k a n a k a n m e m b a n t u p e r m i n t a a n d u n i a a k a n b a t u b a r a I n d o n e s i a . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n e k s p o r b a t u b a r a d a p a t m e n j a d i s a l a b s a t u p o t e n s i p e n g b a s i l d e v i s a .

VI.3. A s p e k N e r a c a P e m b a y a r a n d a n P e r d a g p n g a n L u a r N e g e r i D e w a s a I n i

P r o s p e k e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a y a n g k u r a n g c e r a b s e b a g a i a k i b a t r e s e s i d i n e g a r a -n e g a r a i n d u s t r i s a n g a t m e m p e n g a m b i n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n l u a r n e g e r i d a n A n g g a r a n B e l a n j a N e g a r a . S e m e s t e r I t a b u n a n g g a r a n 1 9 8 1 / 1 9 8 2 N e r a c a P e m b a y a r a n I n d o n e s i a m e n g a l a m i d e f i s i t s e b e s a r U S S 1 0 0 j u t a , S e m e s t e r I I d e f i s i t t e r s e b u t d i p e r k i r a k a n U S S 8 0 0 j u t a , s e h i n g g a s e l u m b t a b u n a n g g a r a n 1 9 8 1 / 1 9 8 2 d e f i s i t d i p e r k i r a k a n U S S 9 0 0 j u t a .

P e r k e m b a n g a n d a l a m b a r g a m i n y a k d u n i a d a n k o m o d i t i e k s p o r l a i n n y a m e m p e n g a m b i k e b i j a k s a n a a n fiskal d a n m o n e t e r s e r t a l a j u p e r t u m b u b a n d a n i n f l a s i d a l a m n e g e r i .

T a d i t e l a b d i s i n g g u n g b a b w a p e n e r i m a a n d e v i s a d a r i m i n y a k t i d a k a k a n b n y a k b e m b a b , k a r e n a b a r g a j u a l l u a r n e g e r i b a g i m i n y a k b u m i I n d o n e s i a t i d a k b e m b a b , s e d a n g k a n v o l u m e e k s p o r m i n y a k d a l a m w a k t u d e k a t j u g a t i d a k b e m b a b . J u g a b a r g a d a n v o l u m e e k s p o r L N G t i d a k b a n y a k m e n i n g k a t . B a m d i t a b u n 1 9 8 4 p e n e r i m a a n gas a l a m a k a n m e l o n j a k d e n g a n 2 7 , 6 % k a r e n a d a l a m t a b u n i t u k i l a n g - k i l a n g y a n g d i p e r l u a s d i A m n d a n B a d a k m u l a i m e n g e k s p o r b a s i l n y a . D e n g a n b e g i t u b a g j n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n d a n A n g g a r a n B e l a n j a N e g a r a p e n e r i m a a n m i n y a k d a n gas a l a m d i p e r k i r a k a n t i d a k b a n y a k b e m b a b s e l a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 2 . I m p o r d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i d a n gas a l a m k i r a n y a a k a n t e t a p m e n i n g k a t d a n n e r a c a j a s a - j a s a t e t a p d e f i s i t s e p e r t i t a b u n - t a b u n y a n g l a l u . P e r k e m b a n g a n e k s p o r k o m o d i t i n o n m i n y a k d i t a b u n 1 9 8 2 m a s i b l a m b a t . S a t u s a m a l a i n i t u a k a n m e n y e b a b k a n b a b w a d e f i s i t d a l a m t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n ( c u r r e n t account) p a d a n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n I n d o n e s i a a k a n m e n j a d i s e m a k i n b e s a r .

M a s a l a b d e f i s i t t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n p a d a d a s a r n y a b a m s d i t a n g g u l a n g i o l e b p e n i n g k a t a n e k s p o r k o m o d i t i n o n m i n y a k , d i s e r t a i l a l u l i n t a s m o d a l

10 Lihat juga Tinjauan Triwulan dalam Majalah E K I , V o l . X X K , No. 2, Juni 1981.

404 E K I , Vol. X X I X , No. 4, December 1981

s w a s t a , l a l u l i n t a s m o d a l p e m e r i n t a h d a n d i l a i n p i h a k d e n g a n m e n g u r a n g i i n g e l u a r a n - p e n g e l u a r a n u n t u k i m p o r d a n j a s a . D a l a m w a k t u y a n g p e n d e k a j a b i l a l a l u l i n t a s m o d a l t i d a k c u k u p u n t u k m e n u t u p d e f i s i t t e r s e b u t , a g a k n y c a d a n g a n d e v i s a I n d o n e s i a a k a n b e r k u r a n g u n t u k m e n a n g g u l a n g i d e f i s i t t s e b u t . M u n g k i n s e k a l i c a d a n g a n d e v i s a s u d a b m u l a i d i p a k a i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 | 2

P a d a s a a t i n i s e d a n g d i j a j a k i s e r a n g k a i a n l a n g k a b k e b i j a k s a n a a n p e n e r l n t a b u n t u k m e n i n g k a t k a n e k s p o r k o m o d i t i n o n m i n y a k d a n gas I n d o n e s i a . S a l a b s a t u u s a b a y a n g k o n o n s e g e r a b e n d a k d i j a l a n k a n m e n y a n g k u t c a r a p e n -b a y a r a n d a n s i s t i m k o n s i n y a s i b a g i b a r a n g - b a r a n g e k s p o r . C a r a p e m b a y a r a n y a n g k i n i b e r l a k u , m e m u n g k i n k a n e k s p o r t i r I n d o n e s i a m e n e r i m a u a n g d i r f i m p o r t i r d e n g a n m e n c a i r k a n L . C . {Letter of C r e d i t ) k e B a n k , b e r d a s a r d o l ;b-m e n m u a t , j a d i p a d a s a a t b a r a n g t e r s e b u t s u d a b d i a t a s k a p a l d a n b e l u m s a m p a i k e p i b a k i m p o r t i r . C a r a i n i k o n o n a k a n d i u b a b d e n g a n k e m u n g k i n a n b i g i i m p o r t n d i l u a r n e g e r i u n t u k m e m b a y a r b a r a n g y a n g d i i m p o r n y a s e t e l a b l a -r a n g t e r s e b u t s a m p a i p a d a p i b a k i m p o r t i r . K a l a u p e r l u p e m b a y a r a n d a p a t d i -t u n d a u n t u k d u a a t a u t i g a b u l a n . S e m e n t a r a i t u p e m e r i n t a b s e d a n g m e m i l i f -k a n s e c a r a b a g a i m a n a d a p a t m e m b a n t u p e m b i a y a a n p i h a k e k s p o r t i r . S i s l i b k o n s i n y a s i y a n g s e m u l a b a n y a u n t u k t e m b a k a u , t i m a b d a n l a d a a k a n d i j e r -l u a s u n t u k k a y u l a p i s , t e k s t i l , k o p i , k a r e t d a n b a r a n g - b a r a n g e k s p o r l a i n n / < , b a i k b a b a n m e n t a b m a u p u n b a s i l i n d u s t r i . S e d a n g k a n e k s p o r t i r d i I n d o m s i a k o n o n a k a n d i b a n t u d a l a m p e n y e d i a a n d a n a u n t u k m e l a k s a n a k a n s i s t i m k m -s i n y a s i t e r s e b u t .

S i s t i m l a i n y a n g d i j a j a k i u n t u k m e n e m b u s t i n d a k a n p r o t e k s i n e g i r i i -n e g a r a m a j u a d a l a b d e n g a n m e n g a i t k a n e k s p o r d e n g a n p e m b e l i a n b a r a n g b i -r a n g p e m e r i n t a b d a r i i m p o r . B a r a n g - b a r a n g e k s p o r y a n g k o n o n a k a n d i ] < a i t -k a n a d a l a b : s e m e n , k a y u l a p i s , b a r a n g - b a r a n g t e k s t i l , k a r e t , t e m b a k a u B e -s u k i / N O , k o p i , t a p i o k a d a n l a d a . S e t i a p s u p p U e r d a r i l u a r n e g e r i d i k e n k -k a n s y a r a t - s y a r a t a n t a r a l a i n m e n g e n a i k u a l i t a s d a n b a r g a . S y a r a t - s y i r k t t e r s e b u t d a l a m s i s t i m y a n g k o n o n b e n d a k d i k e m b a n g k a n m a u d i t a m l i a i , y a i t u n e g a r a y a n g m e n g e k s p o r p e r a l a t a n d a n m e s i n u n t u k I n d o n e s i a , ui^a b a r u s m e n g i m p o r b a r a n g - b a r a n g I n d o n e s i a . S i s t i m i n i n a m p a k n y a d i m a k s u d u n t u k m e n g g a n t i d e v i s a y a n g d i p a k a i I n d o n e s i a u n t u k i m p o r p e r a l ^ t k n d a n m e s i n u n t u k k e b u t u b a n p r o y e k - p r o y e k p e m e r i n t a b .

E K I , VoL XXDC, No. 4, December 1981 1 ( 1 5

Tinjauan Triwulan Perekonomian Indonesia*

Documents

Transcript of Tinjauan Triwulan Perekonomian Indonesia*