FAISAL BASRI: Subsidi BBM Sudah Bewujud Kanker Ganas

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Forum Diskusi Ekonomi Politik "Subsidi BBM, Solusi atau Masalah?" Minggu, 7 September 2014 bertempat di Double Bay Lounge and Resto, Lobby Ibis Budget (ex Formula 1) Plaza Menteng GF 9-10, Jl Cokroaminoto 79 Jakarta Pusat. Pembicara : Ir. Hasto Kristiyanto, MM (Wakil Sekjend PDIP) Faisal Basri (Pengamat Ekonomi) Joko Anwar (Seniman Indonesia) Olga Lydia (Seniman Indonesia) Moderator : Azwar Zulkarnaen (FDEP). Upload by: Ruslan Andy Chandra http://liputansatu.blogspot.com/2014/09/faisal-basri-subsidi-bbm-solusi-atau.html. Sumber: Forum Diskusi Ekonomi Politik (FDEP),

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  • 1. SSUUBBSSIIDDII BBBBMM SSUUDDAAHH BBEERRWWUUJJUUDDKKAANNKKEERR GGAANNAASSFaisal Basri277 SSeepptteemmbbeerr 22001144

2. Indonesias oil reserves5.12 5.10 4.72 4.44 4.30 4.19 4.37 3.99 3.754.30 4.23 4.04 3.74 3.59 3.604.49 4.66 5.034.664.31 4.444.564.414.47 3.70 3.53 3.693.661098765432102000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Bilion barelsProven PotentialSource: PricewaterhouseCoopers, Oil and Gas in Indonesia, various issues. 3. Crude oil pprroodduuccttiioonn aanndd uunniitt pprriicceess976Production (thousand barrels) per day, LHS Unit prices (US$/barrel), RHS949 9451000950900850800750* First semester (January-June)Source: Bank Indonesia90286282679693.559.677.7109.2110.7104.0106.112011010090807060507002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 4. Konsumsi BBM bersubsidi naik terus: mengapajustru solar yang dibatasi?Juta Kiloliter19.020.911.5 11.87.74.623.012.82.424.514.11.727.314.829.315.91.2 1.130201002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Minyak Tanah Solar PremiumSumber: APBN 2014 dan khusus untuk tahun 2013 dari Paparan Menteri ESDM pada Rapat Kerja denganKomisi VII DPR tanggal 29 Januari 2014. 5. Konsumsi BBM meroket, pprroodduukkssii mmiinnyyaakk mmeelloorroott,, iimmppoorrkkiiaann mmeennggaannggaa,, ssiiaapp mmeenneerrkkaamm ppeerreekkoonnoommiiaannThousand barrel/day1,6001,4001,2001,000800600400Production1980198119821983198419851986198719819891901911921931941951961971981920201202203204205206207208209201020120122013Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.Oil production: Includescrude oil, tight oil, oilsands and NGLs (theliquid content of naturalgas where this isrecovered separately).Excludes liquid fuels fromother sources such asbiomass and derivativesof coal and natural gas.Oil consumption: inlanddemand plus aviation andmarine bunkers andrefinery fuel and loss.Consumption ofbiogasoline (such asethanol), biodiesel andderivatives of coal andnatural gas are alsoincluded.Imports741.000barrel/dayConsumption 6. Trade account of oil50US$ Bilions Crude oil Oil products Total-5-10-15-20-25* January-JuneSources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.-3.8-8.4-27.7-13.7-302000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 7. Lebih parah lagi, minyak mentah punsudah defisit mulai tahun 2013(Oil trade account, US$ billions)2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*Crude OilExports 6,090 5,715 5,228 5,621 6,241 8,146 8,169 9,226 12,419 7,820 10,403 13,829 12,293 10,205 4,629.4Imports -2,525 -2,888 -3,217 -3,928 -5,831 -6,797 -7,853 -9,057 -10,062 -7,362 -8,531 -11,154 -10,803 -13,586 -6,912.6(X - M) 3,565 2,827 2,011 1,694 410 1,349 316 169 2,357 458 1,872 2,675 1,490 -3,381 -2,283.2Oil ProductsExports 1,652 1,189 1,308 1,548 1,654 1,932 2,844 2,879 3,547 2,262 3,967 4,777 4,163 4,299 1,938.6Imports -3,491 -2,574 -3,309 -3,583 -5,892 -10,646 -11,080 -12,787 -20,231 -11,129 -18,018 -28,134 -28,679 -28,568 -13,330.6(X - M) -1,840 -1,385 -2,001 -2,035 -4,238 -8,714 -8,236 -9,908 -16,684 -8,876 -14,051 -23,357 -24,516 -24,269 -11,392TotalExports 7,742 6,904 6,535 7,169 7,896 10,078 11,013 12,105 15,966 10,082 14,370 18,606 16,456 14,504 6,568.0Imports -6,016 --5,462 -6,526 -7,510 -11,724 -17,443 -18,933 -21,844 -30,293 -18,491 -26,549 -39,288 -39,482 -42,154 -20,243.2(X - M) 1,726 1,442 10 342 -3,828 -7,365 -7,920 -9,739 -14,327 -8,409 -12,179 -20,682 -23,026 -27,650 -13,675.2* January-June.Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. 8. Trade deficit: oil and gas6.32520151050-5-10-15-20* January-JuneSource: BPS-Statistic Indonesia.Oil & oil products Gas Oil & gas-1.4-5.6-12.6-6.1-252002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*US$ billions 9. Jangan lagi berharap harga minyak murahCrude Oil Light Sweet Pit (Nymex) October 2014 Adjusted by producer-priceindex = US$118 Adjusted by annualincome within G-7countries = US$134 Adjusted by disposableincome of US = US$145 Spending on oil as ashare of global output =US$150Source: Economist, April17, 2008.5:14 p.m EDT$93.45 =Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html 10. Selain menekan rupiah, juga menekan APBN,lalu menyebar ke berbagai arahSubsidiBBMIDR = Rp 11,900/US$Auto growth = 5%Oil subsidy = Rp 4,800/ltrICP = US$105/barrelTotal subsidy = Rp 291 Tn(16.5% penerimaan negaraatau 14,4% pengel. negara)Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly, October 2013. 11. Subsidi BBM, defisit APBN Subsidi BBM telah merongrong APBN. Dalam 11 tahun terakhir, hampir selalu (10tahun) subsidi BBM lebih besar dari nilaidefisit APBN. Hanya tahun 2009 saja subsidiBBM lebih kecil dari defisit APBN. Defisit APBN ditutup dengan utang, yaknimenerbitkan Surat Utang Negara (SUN). Berarti, secara tak langsung, subsidi BBMdibiayai oleh utang pemerintah. 12. Budget deficit and primary balanceYearTotalRevenues(IDR trillion)TotalExpenditures(IDR trillion)Deficit(% of GDP))Primarybalance(IDR trillion)2005 495 510 15 (0.5) 512006 638 667 29 (0.9) 502007 708 758 50 (1.3) 302008 982 986 4 (0.1) 842009 849 937 88 ( 1.6) 52010 995 1,042 47 (0.7) 422011 1,211 1,295 84 (1.1) 92012 1,336 1,482 146 (1.8) -462013 1,430 1,639 209 (2.3) -972014* 1,540 1,821 281 (2.8) -1452015** 1,762 2,020 258 (2.3) -104Primary balance:centralgovernmentrevenues minuscentralgovernmentexpenditureexcept forinterestpayments on thecentralgovernmentdebt.* Prediction ** RAPBNSource: Ministry of Finance. 13. Nilai tukar rupiah melemah sejak Septeber 2011dan berlangsung paling lama dalam sejarah8.0008.5009.0009.50010.00010.50011.00011.50012.00012.50008-Apr19-Agu15-Des08-Apr29-Jul24-Nov15-Mar07-Jul03-Nov26-Feb20-Jun08-Okt14-Feb09-Jun26-SepJan-29May-2514-Sep12-Jan04-Mei24-Agu16-Des07-Apr29-Jul23-Nov13-Mar05-Jul29-Okt22-Feb17-Jun08-Okt04-Feb02-JunSource: Bank Indonesia(Rupiah per US$)24-26 Nov2008 = 12,400Terkuat 2/8/11 = Rp 8.460 14. Getting to the root of the problem: balance ofpayments (US$ million)* First semester (January-June)Source: Bank Indonesia.2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14I. CURRENT ACCOUNT 5,144 1,685 -24,418 -29,129 -13,264 -6,009 -10,133 -8,634 -4,345 -4,151 -9,113A. Goods, net (Trade account) 31,003 33,825 8,680 5,833 2,876 1,602 -556 85 4,703 3,350 -4741. Exports, f.o.b. 149,966 191,109 187,346 182,089 88,132 44,945 45,244 43,824 48,076 43,937 44,1952. Imports, f.o.b. -118,963 -157,284 -178,667 -176,256 -85,258 -43,603 -46,071 -44,003 -43,651 -40,588 -44,670B. Services, net -9,791 -9,803 -10,564 -12,072 -5,153 -2,633 -3,552 -2,781 -3,106 -2,231 -2,922C. Primary Income, net -20,698 -26,547 -26,628 -26,850 -13,608 -6,054 -7,027 -6,808 -6,961 -6,354 -7,254D. Secondary Income, net 4,630 4,211 4,094 3,959 2,623 1,076 1,003 862 1,019 1,085 1,538II. CAPITAL ACCOUNT 50 33 51 21 2 1 7 5 8 1 1III. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT 26,476 13,603 24,858 21,942 22,158 -653 8,620 4,987 8,987 7,646 14,5121. Direct investment 11,106 11,528 13,716 13,669 8,291 3,633 3,657 5,851 527 3,467 4,8242. Portfolio investment 13,202 3,806 9,206 9,531 16,829 2,760 3,389 1,592 1,790 9,125 7,7043. Financial derivatives -94 69 13 -334 -86 -101 20 -235 -19 -140 544. Other investment 2,262 -1,801 1,922 -924 -2,875 -6,945 1,553 -2,221 6,689 -4,805 1,930IV. NET ERRORS & OMISSIONS -1,327 -3,465 -275 -158 -2,533 45 -971 1,006 -238 -1,430 -1,103V. RESERVES & RELATED ITEMS -30,343 -11,857 -215 7,325 -6,363 6,615 2,477 2,645 -4,412 -2,066 -4,297 15. Transaksi perdagangan (ekspor-impor)minyak dan non-migas jadi biang kelaaddiiAkun lancar (current account) dan komponennya, miliar US$Current Non-oilOil Gas Services IncomeCurrentAccount* and gas transfer2008 0.1 (0.0%) 15.1 -8.4 16.1 -13 -15.2 5.42009 10.6 (2.0%) 25.6 -4.0 9.4 -9.7 -15.1 4.62010 5.1 (0.7%) 27.8 -8.7 11.9 -9.8 -20.8 4.62011 1.7 (0.2%) 34.5 -17.5 16.9 -10.6 -26.7 4.2Q1 2.9 (1.5) 8.9 -3.2 3.6 -1.8 -5.5 1.0Q2 0.3 (0.1) 10.6 -5.8 4.4 -3.1 -6.8 1.0Q3 0.8 (0.3) 9.3 -4.3 4.7 -2.6 -7.4 1.0Q4 -2.3 (-1.1) 6.6 -4.2 4.2 -3.1 -7 1.22012 -24.4 (-2.8%) 13.9 -20.4 15.2 -10.3 -26.8 4.1Q1 -3.2 (-1.5%) 4.7 -5.3 4.4 -2.0 -6.0 1.0Q2 -8.1 (-3.7%) 2.0 -5.3 4.2 -2.8 -7.1 0.9Q3 -5.3 (-2.4%) 4.0 -4.2 3.4 -2.4 -7.0 0.9Q4 -7.8 (-3.6%) 3.2 -5.6 3.2 -3.2 -6.7 1.32013 -29.1 (-3.3%) 15.5 -22.5 12.8 -12.1 -27.0 4.0Q1 -6.0 (-2.7%) 4.4 -6.4 3.5 -2.6 -6.1 1.1Q2 -10.1 (-4.5%) 1.5 -5.1 3.0 -3.5 -7.1 1.0Q3 -8.6 (-3.9%) 2.7 -5.7 3.0 -2.8 -6.8 0.9Q4 -4.3 (-2.1%) 6.8 -5.4 3.2 -3.1 -7.0 1.02014 -13.3 (3.2%) 8.8 -12.2 6.3 -5.1 -13.6 2.6Q1 -4.2 (-2.0%) 6.1 -6.1 3.3 -2.2 -6.4 1.1Q2 -9.1 (-4.3%) 2.7 -6.1 3.0 -2.9 -7.2 1.5* In parentheses is percent of GDP. Source: Bank Indonesia 16. Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.Trade account: dalam 25 bulan terakhir,15 bulan alami defisit; nonmigas 7 bulan-3-2-101234Jan'10FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan'1FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan'12FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan'13FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan'14FebMarAprMayJunUS$ BilionsNon-oil and gas Oil and gas Total 17. Akhirnya jebol: transaksi perdagangandefisit sejak 2012Billion US$ Growth (yoy)2011 2012 2013 2014* 2011 2012 2013 2014*DescriptionTotal export 203.5 190.0 182.6 88.8 29.0 -6.6 -3.9 -2.5Non-oil and gas 162.0 153.1 149.9 73.1 24.9 -5.5 -2.0 -2.1Oil and gas 41.5 37.0 32.6 15.7 48.3 -10.9 -11.8 -3.9Total import 177.4 191.7 186.6 90.0 30.7 8.0 -2.6 -1.4Non-oil and gas 136.7 149.1 141.4 68.2 26.2 9.0 -5.2 -5.7Oil and gas 40.7 42.6 45.3 21.8 48.4 4.6 6.4 -1.4Surplus (Deficit) 26.1 (-1.6) (-4.1) -1.2Non-oil and gas 25.3 4.0 8.6 4.9Oil and gas 0.8 (-5.6) (-12.6) -6.1* January-JuneSource: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. 18. Oleh karena itu, harus ada upaya nyata: Meningkatkan produksi dalam jangka pendek cost recovery naik. Mempercepat eksplorasi untuk menemukansumur baru agar proven reserves naik Jangka menengah panjang: meningkatkan provenreserves setidaknya setara dengan tingkatkenaikan konsumsi. Dan/atau diversifikasi energi: gas untuktransportasi publik, biofuel untuk kendaraanpribadi dan pembangkit listrik. 19. Without subsidy, oil trade deficit is still highScenari