SUBSIDI BBM SUDAH BERWUJUD SUBSIDI BBM SUDAH BERWUJUD KANKER GANASKANKER GANAS

Faisal Basri

227 September7 September 2014 2014

Indonesia’s oil reserves

5.12 5.10 4.72 4.44 4.30 4.19 4.37 3.99 3.754.30 4.23 4.04 3.74 3.59 3.60

4.49 4.66 5.034.66

4.31 4.444.56

4.41 4.47 3.70 3.53 3.693.66

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Billi

on b

arre

ls

Proven PotentialSource: PricewaterhouseCoopers, Oil and Gas in Indonesia, various issues.

Crude oil production and unit pricesCrude oil production and unit prices

* First semester (January-June)Source: Bank Indonesia

976

949 945

902

862

826

796

93.5

59.6

77.7

109.2 110.7

104.0106.1

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Production (thousand barrels) per day, LHS Unit prices (US$/barrel), RHS

Sumber: APBN 2014 dan khusus untuk tahun 2013 dari Paparan Menteri ESDM pada Rapat Kerja denganKomisi VII DPR tanggal 29 Januari 2014.

Konsumsi BBM bersubsidi naik terus: mengapa justru solar yang dibatasi?

7.7

4.6

2.41.7

1.2 1.1

11.5 11.812.8

14.114.8

15.9

19.0

20.9

23.024.5

27.3

29.3

0

10

20

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Minyak Tanah Solar Premium

Juta Kiloliter

Konsumsi BBM meroket, produksi minyak melorot, impor Konsumsi BBM meroket, produksi minyak melorot, impor kian menganga, siap menerkam perekonomiankian menganga, siap menerkam perekonomian

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Thousand barrel/dayOil production: Includes crude oil, tight oil, oil sands and NGLs (the liquid content of natural gas where this is recovered separately). Excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and derivatives of coal and natural gas.

Oil consumption: inland demand plus aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of biogasoline (such as ethanol), biodiesel and derivatives of coal and natural gas are also included.

Imports741.000 barrel/day

Consumption

Production

* January-JuneSources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Trade account of oil

-3.8

-8.4

-27.7

-13.7

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

US

$ B

illion

s

Crude oil Oil products Total

Lebih parah lagi, minyak mentah pun sudah defisit mulai tahun 2013

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Crude Oil

Exports 6,090 5,715 5,228 5,621 6,241 8,146 8,169 9,226 12,419 7,820 10,403 13,829 12,293 10,205 4,629.4

Imports -2,525 -2,888 -3,217 -3,928 -5,831 -6,797 -7,853 -9,057 -10,062 -7,362 -8,531 -11,154 -10,803 -13,586 -6,912.6

(X - M) 3,565 2,827 2,011 1,694 410 1,349 316 169 2,357 458 1,872 2,675 1,490 -3,381 -2,283.2

Oil Products

Exports 1,652 1,189 1,308 1,548 1,654 1,932 2,844 2,879 3,547 2,262 3,967 4,777 4,163 4,299 1,938.6

Imports -3,491 -2,574 -3,309 -3,583 -5,892 -10,646 -11,080 -12,787 -20,231 -11,129 -18,018 -28,134 -28,679 -28,568 -13,330.6

(X - M) -1,840 -1,385 -2,001 -2,035 -4,238 -8,714 -8,236 -9,908 -16,684 -8,876 -14,051 -23,357 -24,516 -24,269 -11,392

Total

Exports 7,742 6,904 6,535 7,169 7,896 10,078 11,013 12,105 15,966 10,082 14,370 18,606 16,456 14,504 6,568.0

Imports -6,016 --5,462 -6,526 -7,510 -11,724 -17,443 -18,933 -21,844 -30,293 -18,491 -26,549 -39,288 -39,482 -42,154 -20,243.2

(X - M) 1,726 1,442 10 342 -3,828 -7,365 -7,920 -9,739 -14,327 -8,409 -12,179 -20,682 -23,026 -27,650 -13,675.2

* January-June.Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

(Oil trade account, US$ billions)

Trade deficit: oil and gas

* January-JuneSource: BPS-Statistic Indonesia.

6.3

-1.4

-5.6

-12.6

-6.1

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Oil & oil products Gas Oil & gas

US$

bill

ions

Jangan lagi berharap harga minyak murah

Crude Oil Light Sweet Pit (Nymex) October 2014

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118

Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134

Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145

Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150

• Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.

5:14 p.m EDT

$93.45 =

Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly, October 2013.

Selain menekan rupiah, juga menekan APBN, lalu menyebar ke berbagai arah

SubsidiBBM

IDR = Rp 11,900/US$Auto growth = 5%Oil subsidy = Rp 4,800/ltrICP = US$105/barrel

Total subsidy = Rp 291 Tn(16.5% penerimaan negara atau 14,4% pengel. negara)

Subsidi BBM, defisit APBN

Subsidi BBM telah merongrong APBN. Dalam 11 tahun terakhir, hampir selalu (10

tahun) subsidi BBM lebih besar dari nilai defisit APBN. Hanya tahun 2009 saja subsidi BBM lebih kecil dari defisit APBN.

Defisit APBN ditutup dengan utang, yakni menerbitkan Surat Utang Negara (SUN).

Berarti, secara tak langsung, subsidi BBM dibiayai oleh utang pemerintah.

Budget deficit and primary balance

Year

TotalRevenues

(IDR trillion)

TotalExpenditures(IDR trillion)

Deficit(% of GDP))

Primary balance

(IDR trillion)

2005 495 510 15 (0.5) 51

2006 638 667 29 (0.9) 50

2007 708 758 50 (1.3) 30

2008 982 986 4 (0.1) 84

2009 849 937 88 ( 1.6) 5

2010 995 1,042 47 (0.7) 42

2011 1,211 1,295 84 (1.1) 9

2012 1,336 1,482 146 (1.8) -46

2013 1,430 1,639 209 (2.3) -97

2014* 1,540 1,821 281 (2.8) -145

2015** 1,762 2,020 258 (2.3) -104

Primary balance: central government revenues minus central government expenditure except for interest payments on the central government debt.

Primary balance: central government revenues minus central government expenditure except for interest payments on the central government debt.

* Prediction ** RAPBNSource: Ministry of Finance.

Nilai tukar rupiah melemah sejak Septeber 2011 dan berlangsung paling lama dalam sejarah

8.000

8.500

9.000

9.500

10.000

10.500

11.000

11.500

12.000

12.500

08-A

pr

19-A

gu

15-D

es

08-A

pr

29-J

ul

24-N

ov

15-M

ar

07-J

ul

03-N

ov

26-F

eb

20-J

un

08-O

kt

14-F

eb

09-J

un

26-S

ep

Jan

-29

May

-25

14-S

ep

12-J

an

04-M

ei

24-A

gu

16-D

es

07-A

pr

29-J

ul

23-N

ov

13-M

ar

05-J

ul

29-O

kt

22-F

eb

17-J

un

08-O

kt

04-F

eb

02-J

un

Source: Bank Indonesia

(Rupiah per US$)

24-26 Nov 2008 = 12,400

Terkuat 2/8/11 = Rp 8.460

Getting to the root of the problem: balance of payments (US$ million)

* First semester (January-June)Source: Bank Indonesia.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14

I. CURRENT ACCOUNT 5,144 1,685 -24,418 -29,129 -13,264 -6,009 -10,133 -8,634 -4,345 -4,151 -9,113

A. Goods, net (Trade account) 31,003 33,825 8,680 5,833 2,876 1,602 -556 85 4,703 3,350 -474

1. Exports, f.o.b. 149,966 191,109 187,346 182,089 88,132 44,945 45,244 43,824 48,076 43,937 44,195

2. Imports, f.o.b. -118,963 -157,284 -178,667 -176,256 -85,258 -43,603 -46,071 -44,003 -43,651 -40,588 -44,670

B. Services, net -9,791 -9,803 -10,564 -12,072 -5,153 -2,633 -3,552 -2,781 -3,106 -2,231 -2,922

C. Primary Income, net -20,698 -26,547 -26,628 -26,850 -13,608 -6,054 -7,027 -6,808 -6,961 -6,354 -7,254

D. Secondary Income, net 4,630 4,211 4,094 3,959 2,623 1,076 1,003 862 1,019 1,085 1,538

II. CAPITAL ACCOUNT 50 33 51 21 2 1 7 5 8 1 1

III. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT 26,476 13,603 24,858 21,942 22,158 -653 8,620 4,987 8,987 7,646 14,512

1. Direct investment 11,106 11,528 13,716 13,669 8,291 3,633 3,657 5,851 527 3,467 4,824

2. Portfolio investment 13,202 3,806 9,206 9,531 16,829 2,760 3,389 1,592 1,790 9,125 7,704

3. Financial derivatives -94 69 13 -334 -86 -101 20 -235 -19 -140 54

4. Other investment 2,262 -1,801 1,922 -924 -2,875 -6,945 1,553 -2,221 6,689 -4,805 1,930

IV. NET ERRORS & OMISSIONS -1,327 -3,465 -275 -158 -2,533 45 -971 1,006 -238 -1,430 -1,103

V. RESERVES & RELATED ITEMS -30,343 -11,857 -215 7,325 -6,363 6,615 2,477 2,645 -4,412 -2,066 -4,297

Transaksi perdagangan (ekspor-impor)minyak dan non-migas jadi biang keladiadi

* In parentheses is percent of GDP. Source: Bank Indonesia

Akun lancar (current account) dan komponennya, miliar US$

Current Non-oil

Oil Gas Services IncomeCurrent

Account* and gas transfer2008 0.1 (0.0%) 15.1 -8.4 16.1 -13 -15.2 5.42009 10.6 (2.0%) 25.6 -4.0 9.4 -9.7 -15.1 4.62010 5.1 (0.7%) 27.8 -8.7 11.9 -9.8 -20.8 4.62011 1.7 (0.2%) 34.5 -17.5 16.9 -10.6 -26.7 4.2 Q1 2.9 (1.5) 8.9 -3.2 3.6 -1.8 -5.5 1.0 Q2 0.3 (0.1) 10.6 -5.8 4.4 -3.1 -6.8 1.0 Q3 0.8 (0.3) 9.3 -4.3 4.7 -2.6 -7.4 1.0 Q4 -2.3 (-1.1) 6.6 -4.2 4.2 -3.1 -7 1.22012 -24.4 (-2.8%) 13.9 -20.4 15.2 -10.3 -26.8 4.1 Q1 -3.2 (-1.5%) 4.7 -5.3 4.4 -2.0 -6.0 1.0 Q2 -8.1 (-3.7%) 2.0 -5.3 4.2 -2.8 -7.1 0.9 Q3 -5.3 (-2.4%) 4.0 -4.2 3.4 -2.4 -7.0 0.9 Q4 -7.8 (-3.6%) 3.2 -5.6 3.2 -3.2 -6.7 1.32013 -29.1 (-3.3%) 15.5 -22.5 12.8 -12.1 -27.0 4.0 Q1 -6.0 (-2.7%) 4.4 -6.4 3.5 -2.6 -6.1 1.1 Q2 -10.1 (-4.5%) 1.5 -5.1 3.0 -3.5 -7.1 1.0 Q3 -8.6 (-3.9%) 2.7 -5.7 3.0 -2.8 -6.8 0.9 Q4 -4.3 (-2.1%) 6.8 -5.4 3.2 -3.1 -7.0 1.02014 -13.3 (3.2%) 8.8 -12.2 6.3 -5.1 -13.6 2.6 Q1 -4.2 (-2.0%) 6.1 -6.1 3.3 -2.2 -6.4 1.1 Q2 -9.1 (-4.3%) 2.7 -6.1 3.0 -2.9 -7.2 1.5

Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Trade account: dalam 25 bulan terakhir, 15 bulan alami defisit; nonmigas 7 bulan

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Jan'

10 Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

n'11 Fe

bM

ar Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

n'12 Fe

bM

ar Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

n'13 Fe

bM

ar Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

n'14 Fe

bM

ar Apr

May Jun

US$

Bill

ions

Non-oil and gas Oil and gas Total

Akhirnya jebol: transaksi perdagangan defisit sejak 2012

     

  2011 2012 2013 2014* 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Total export 203.5 190.0 182.6 88.8 29.0 -6.6 -3.9 -2.5

Non-oil and gas 162.0 153.1 149.9 73.1 24.9 -5.5 -2.0 -2.1

Oil and gas 41.5 37.0 32.6 15.7 48.3 -10.9 -11.8 -3.9

Total import 177.4 191.7 186.6 90.0 30.7 8.0 -2.6 -1.4

Non-oil and gas 136.7 149.1 141.4 68.2 26.2 9.0 -5.2 -5.7

Oil and gas 40.7 42.6 45.3 21.8 48.4 4.6 6.4 -1.4

Surplus (Deficit) 26.1 (-1.6) (-4.1) -1.2

Non-oil and gas 25.3 4.0 8.6 4.9

Oil and gas 0.8 (-5.6) (-12.6) -6.1

Billion US$ Growth (yoy)Description

* January-JuneSource: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Oleh karena itu, harus ada upaya nyata:

Meningkatkan produksi dalam jangka pendek cost recovery naik.

Mempercepat eksplorasi untuk menemukan sumur baru agar proven reserves naik

Jangka menengah panjang: meningkatkan proven reserves setidaknya setara dengan tingkat kenaikan konsumsi.

Dan/atau diversifikasi energi: gas untuk transportasi publik, biofuel untuk kendaraan pribadi dan pembangkit listrik.

Without subsidy, oil trade deficit is still high

Subsidy (Rp/liter)

Scenario I (Rp trillion)

Scenario II (Rp trillion)

4,800 24.8 25.3

4,600 24.3 24.9

4,000 23.4 23.9

3,000 20.5 21.0

2,000 18.2 18.7

1,000 15.8 16.3

0 13.4 13.9

Scenario I: ICP = US$106.5/barrel; IDR = Rp 11,600/US$; Auto growth = 5%Scenario II: ICP = US$110.0/barrel; IDR = Rp 12.000/US$; Auto growth = 7%

Kapan sebaiknya harga BBM bersubsidi naik?

Sebaiknya sekali di era pemerintahan SBY pada bulan September, setidaknya Rp 1.800.

Sekali lagi pada Februari 2015. Lalu besarnya subsidi ditetapkan (fixed). Jika

melewati harga naik otomatis.

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia

Besaran garis kemiskinan

Memerangi mitos BBM memiskinkan

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia

Source: CEIC.

History of gasoline 88 (premium) price

Jul-1981 Jul-1984 Jul-1987 Jul-1990 Jul-1993 Jul-1996 Jul-1999 Jul-2002 Jul-2005 Jul-2008 Jul-2011 Jul-2014

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

ID: Retail Price: Fuel: Subsidized: Gasoline 88 (Premium)IDR/Litre

Source: CEIC

Perkembangan harga bensin, beras, dan padi

Nov. 2008

RpJul. 2014

RpKenaikan

(%)

Bensin 6.000 6.500 8,3

Beras 6.441 11.321 75,8

Padi kadar air < 14% 2.909 4.597 58,0

Terima Kasih

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