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DOI:1014042/jcnki321309201504001
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Table1 Lineartrendsofannualprecipitation,numberofprecipitationdaysandprecipitation
intensityover1956—2013forthetenlargeriverbasinsofmainlandChina
ij
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Table3 Lineartrendsofaccumulatedamount,numberofdaysandintensityofannualrainstormsover1956—2013forthetenlargeriverbasinsofmainlandChina
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Table4 Numberofstationswithincreasingtrends(significantincreasingtrends)anddecreasingtrends(significantdecreasingtrends)ofmaximumprecipitationamountofoneday,continuousthreedaysandcontinuousfivedays,andtheirpercentagesinmainlandChina,1956—2013
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SpatialandtemporalpatternsofprecipitationvariabilityovermainlandChina:II:Recenttrends
RENGuoyu1,2,RENYuyu1,2,ZHANYunjian3,SUNXiubao2,4,LIUYanju1,2,CHENYu1,2,WANGTao2,4
(1.NationalClimateCenter,Beijing100081,China;2.LaboratoryforClimateStudies,CMA,Beijing100081,China;
3.NationalMeteorologicalInformationCenter,CMA,Beijing100081,China;
4.CollegeofAtmosphericScience,NanjingUniversityofInformationScience&Technology,Nanjing210044,China)
Abstract:Applyingprecipitationindicesseriesofqualitycontrolleddailydatafromover2300stations,thecharacteristicsoflongtermprecipitationvariationsoverthepast60yearsformainlandChinaareanalyzed.Themainconclusionsareasfollows:① NosignificantlongtermtrendsofannualandseasonalprecipitationpercentageanomalieshavebeenfoundformainlandChinaasawhole,thougharelativelysignificantdecreaseandincreasehavebeenseenfortheseasonalprecipitationpercentageanomaliesforautumnandwinterrespectively;② DecreaseinannualandsummerprecipitationmainlyoccurredincentralandsouthernNortheastChina,NorthChina,westernCentralChinaandSouthwestChina.Increasemainlyoccurredinsoutheasterncoastalregion,themidandlowerreachesoftheYangtzeRiver,theQinghaiTibetanPlateauandNorthwestChina;③ Thespatialpatternsoftheannualandseasonalprecipitationtrendswererelativelystable.ThedecreaseareasmigratedfromtheLoessPlateauandNorthChinatowardnortheastandsouthwestafter1990s,theincreaseareasinNorthwestChinaandtheQinghaiTibetanPlateaudidnotchangemuchormarginallyexpanded,andtheincreaseareasinnorthernNortheastChinaandthemidandlowerreachesoftheYangtzeRiverobviouslyshrank.Intheeasternmonsoonregion,theareaswitheitherincreasingordecreasingtrendsreducedforthelasttwodecades;④ Significantincreasesinannualamountandfrequencyofrainstorms,318mm/10aand003d/10arespectively,havebeenobservedforthepast60years,thoughtheintensityofrainstormsremainedunchanged.TheincreasemostlyappearedinthePearlRiverbasinandtheriversofsoutheasternregion.TheHaiheRiverandtheriversofSouthwestChinawitnessedaremarkabledecreaseinannualamount,frequencyandintensityofrainstorms;⑤ Proportionsofthestationswithincrease(decrease)annualmaximum1d,continuousmaximum3dandcontinuousmaximum 5dprecipitationwere592% (408%),544% (456%)and515%(485%)respectively,andthosewithstatisticallysignificantincrease(decrease)are51% (12%),42%(25%)and37%(28%)respectively,indicatinganincreasingfrequencyandintensityofextremeintenseprecipitationevents,andatendencytowardshorterdurationforsingleextremeintenseprecipitationevents.
Keywords:precipitation;intenseprecipitation;rainstorm;trend;climatechange;mainlandChina
ThestudyisfinanciallysupportedbytheNationalNonProfitResearchProgramofChina(NoGYHY201206012).