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Prospective study of sport dropout: A motivationalanalysis as a function of age and genderJose Francisco Guzmán a & Kieran Kingston ba Physical Education and Sport, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spainb Sport Psychology, University of Wales Institute, Cardiff, UK
Available online: 01 Nov 2011
To cite this article: Jose Francisco Guzmán & Kieran Kingston (2011): Prospective study of sport dropout: A motivationalanalysis as a function of age and gender, European Journal of Sport Science, DOI:10.1080/17461391.2011.573002
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17461391.2011.573002
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Prospective study of sport dropout: A motivational analysis as afunction of age and gender
JOSE FRANCISCO GUZMAN1 & KIERAN KINGSTON2
1Physical Education and Sport, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain, and 2Sport Psychology, University of Wales Institute,
Cardiff, UK
AbstractIntroduction: This paper aimed to analyse the predictive ability of a self-determination theory (SDT) based model describingcompetitive sport dropout, and variance as a function of age and gender. Variables included in the model were:psychological need satisfaction, self-determined motivation, perceived conflict between sport and study, intention topractise sport, and dropout.Methods: A prospective study was performed over a period of 19 months. Variables considered as predictors of sport dropoutwere measured initially, and after 19 months persistence or dropout was assessed. The sample consisted of 857 athletes aged11�19 (mean value 15.3; standard deviation �1.77), 680 males and 177 females.Results: Structural equation modelling illustrated support for an ‘‘alternative’’ model that incorporated a direct relationshipbetween psychological need satisfaction and intention to practise sport. Analysis of invariance showed that the model wasconsistent as a function of age and gender, i.e. no differences were found in regression weights. MANOVA, however,revealed some group differences with respect to the dependent variables. Specifically, in terms of engagement, althoughassessed at the start of the study, those athletes who persisted at 19 months demonstrated greater need satisfaction, self-determined motivation and intention to practise sport than those who dropped out. Age related differences were alsoidentified: with increased age self-determined motivation and intention to practise sport decreased, while there were nodifferences in need satisfaction or perceived conflict between sport and study. There were no differences related to gender.Discussion: The results support previous studies that had used SDT to predict sport dropout, specifically those that hadreported an inverse relationship between self-determined motivation and perceived conflict between activities. Further, itsuggests that other variables (emotional) may play a specific role in predicting intention to continue engagement with sport.Conclusion: The major contribution of the study is in validating a motivational model predicting sport dropout whichincorporates perceived conflict and the direct effect of psychological need satisfaction on the intention to practise sport. Theinvariance of regression weights between age and gender groups suggests that the relationships proposed in the model areuniversal.
Keywords: Motivation, self-determination, adolescence, structural equation modelling
Introduction
Sport dropout has increased in its prevalence as a
topic of research with early studies illustrating
significant dropout rates in adolescence (Gould,
1987; Russell, Allen, & Wilson, 1996; Sallis &
Patrick, 1996; Wankel & Mummery, 1996); these
are most pronounced between 13 and 18 years
(Sallis, 2000). Defined as ‘‘the hypothetical con-
struct used to describe the internal and/or external
forces that produce the initiation, direction, intensity,
and persistence of behaviour’’ (Vallerand & Thill,
1993, p. 18), motivation has been considered a key
variable in predicting dropout in sport (Gould, 1987;
Sarrazin & Guillet, 2001; Vallerand, Deci, & Ryan,
1987; Vallerand & Losier, 1999; Vallerand & Rous-
seau, 2001; Weiss & Chaumenton, 1992).
Self-determination theory (SDT) (Deci & Ryan,
1985a, b, 2000; Ryan & Deci, 2007), has proved
effective in illuminating the understanding of moti-
vational processes in physical activity and sport
dropout (see Pelletier, Fortier, Vallerand, & Briere,
Correspondence: Jose Francisco Guzman, University of Valencia, Physical Education and Sport, C/ Gasco Oliag n8 3, Valencia, 46010,
Spain. E-mail: [email protected]
European Journal of Sport Science
2011, 1�12, iFirst article
ISSN 1746-1391 print/ISSN 1536-7290 online # 2011 European College of Sport Science
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17461391.2011.573002
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2001; Sarrazin, Boiche, & Pelletier, 2007; Sarrazin,
Vallerand, Guillet, Pelletier, & Cury, 2002; Vallerand
& Grouzet, 2001; Vallerand & Perreault, 1999;
Vallerand & Rousseau, 2001). In adopting this
perspective, we will consider previous self-
determination based models of dropout, psychologi-
cal need satisfaction, perceived conflict between
sport and study, and the potential mediating effects
of age and gender.
Specifically, the aims of the study were: (1) to test
a predictive model of sport dropout based on SDT
that incorporates perceived conflict between sport
and study; (2) to study the invariance of the model as
a function of age or gender; and (3) to analyse group
differences in the dependent variables.
The structure of motivation
From an SDT perspective people are typically
viewed as having multiple motives, all of which
determine the overall quality of motivation (Ryan
& Connell, 1989). These motives may be differen-
tiated in terms of their degree of internalization,
varying from intrinsic motives that reflect one’s self,
to extrinsic motives experienced as external to the
self (Deci & Ryan, 1985a, b, 2000; Ryan & Deci,
2007).
Intrinsic motivation (IM) refers to doing an
activity ‘‘for its own sake’’, for the rewards inherent
in the activity (Deci & Ryan, 1985a, b, 2000; Ryan &
Deci, 2007). Although not described within Deci
and Ryan’s seminal work on self-determination
theory, according to Vallerand and colleagues
(Vallerand et al., 1992), three types of IM have
been identified: IM toward knowledge (interest in
progressing in the understanding of the activity), IM
toward experiencing stimulation (interest in the
activity due to the feelings experienced while
performing it) and IM toward accomplishment
(interest in continuing to gain skills).
Extrinsic motivation (EM) refers to behaviour
motivated by expected outcomes or contingencies
not inherent to the activity itself (Deci & Ryan,
1985a, b, 2000; Ryan & Deci, 2007). Extrinsic
motives may be differentiated in terms of their
degree of internalization. The most internalized is
EM-identified regulation (Ryan & Deci, 2007)
which involves engagement in sport to fulfil goals
considered to be relevant by the subject to his/her
personal development. EM-introjected regulation is
less self-determined and refers to engagement as a
way to alleviate guilt for not practising. Finally, the
least internalized form of extrinsic motivation is EM-
external regulation, where engagement is driven by
the opportunity to receive a prize or a reward (Deci
& Ryan, 2000).
SDT also describes a state of amotivation; this
represents a relative lack of self-determination and is
defined as having neither intention nor energy
directed toward action (Ryan & Deci, 2007). This
has been associated with very negative emotional,
cognitive and behavioural consequences (Pelletier
et al., 1995; Vallerand & Bissonette, 1992).
SDT models of dropout
A number of studies have examined predictors of
dropout in competitive sport (Pelletier et al., 2001;
Sarrazin et al., 2002) and exercise’s persistence from
an SDT viewpoint (Fortier & Grenier, 1999).
Vallerand and colleagues (Vallerand, 1997, 2001,
2007; Vallerand & Losier, 1999) proposed a four-
stage causal sequence between motivation determi-
nants and motivation consequences (Social factors
0 Psychological mediators 0 Motivation types 0Consequences). Pelletier et al. (2001) evaluated the
last two stages of this model in competitive sport
using a two-year prospective design to analyse the
effects of motivation on continued participation (in
competition) in a sample of adolescent swimmers.
Results suggested that athletes who dropped out at
10 and 21 months were characterized as having less
self-determined motivation. Further, while IM was
associated with persistence and positive emotions,
amotivation predicted waning performance, negative
emotions and dropping out. The relationship be-
tween the less self-determined types of motivation
and dropout was less clear. Introjected regulation
was positively related to persistence at 10 months,
while external regulation only was negatively related
to persistence at 21 months.
In contrast to the approach of Vallerand and
colleagues, Sarrazin et al. (2002) analysed a sport
dropout model with a five-stage causal sequence.
Perceived motivational climate was considered as an
antecedent of psychological need satisfaction.
Further, they proposed that, based on the theory of
planned behaviour (Fishbein & Ajzen, 1975), that
intention to practise sports was a mediating variable
between motivation and dropout/persistence beha-
viour. Thus the model included the following steps:
Task/Ego involving climate 0 Satisfaction of psy-
chological needs 0 Self-determined motivation 0Intention to practise sports 0 Dropout. Sarrazin
et al. (2002) observed 335 competitive female
handballers for 21 months, and results from struc-
tural equation modelling analyses provided support
for the model; the strength of the path from
behavioural intentions to dropout behaviour was
moderate (b �0.55). Comparison of mean scores
between persistent players and dropouts indicated
that the former perceived the motivational climate as
being more task-involving, they experienced greater
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satisfaction of their three psychological needs, and
they reported higher IM and lower amotivation and
intention to drop out.
The current study explores all but the first stage of
the Sarrazin et al. (2002) model, and incorporates
the relationship between psychological need satisfac-
tion and perceived conflict between sport and study.
Psychological need satisfaction and motivation
A central proposal from SDT is that the universal
and innate needs of autonomy, competence and
relatedness represent essential nutriments for psy-
chological health and well-being (Ryan & Deci,
2000; Standage, Gillison, & Treasure, 2007). Auton-
omy refers to the degree of volition one feels in
pursuing the activity and the need to feel congruence
between an activity and one’s values (Deci & Ryan,
2000). Competence is the desire to interact effec-
tively with the environment and to attain valued
outcomes (White, 1959), while relatedness is the
desire to feel connected to significant others (Deci &
Ryan, 2000). When social factors (often associated
with the coach) are perceived as supporting these
perceptions, they have a positive impact on intrinsic
motivation, but if they undermine autonomy, com-
petence and relatedness, they are likely to lead
motivation towards extrinsic aspects or, if not
achieved, to amotivation (Connell & Wellborn,
1991; Deci & Ryan, 1985b, 1991; Vallerand, 1997;
Vallerand & Losier, 1999).
Although each psychological needs perception
applies a direct and individualized effect on motiva-
tion, some studies have considered a composite
variable labelled psychological need satisfaction
(Ntoumanis, 2005; Standage, Duda, & Pensgaard,
2005; Hagger, Chatzisarantis, & Harris, 2006). For
example, Ntoumanis (2005) found a strong relation-
ship between this composite variable and self-
determined motivation (b �0.73), while Hagger
et al. (2006) indicated that the shared variance
among the psychological needs factors can be
explained by a higher-order factor that captures all
three basic needs in a single latent construct.
Research indicates that psychological need satis-
faction has effects on psychological well-being,
cognitive responses and reported behavioural out-
comes (Standage, Duda, & Ntoumanis, 2003; Duda,
& Ntoumanis, 2006; Standage et al., 2005).
Standage et al. (2005), for example, found in their
sample of secondary school students that need
satisfaction had positive indirect effects on adaptive
physical education outcomes (i.e. concentration,
preference for challenge, positive affect and lower
unhappiness). Thus, it could be hypothesized that
psychological needs could not only influence intention
to practise sport through self-determined motiva-
tion, but also by influencing other affective factors,
such as well-being or positive affect. Since no studies
to date have considered the direct effect of psycho-
logical need satisfaction on intention to practise
sport, one of the objectives of this study was to
analyse if this regression path improves an SDT
based model to predict sport dropout.
Perceived conflict and sport dropout
Although a number of studies have demonstrated the
value of self-determined motivation to predict per-
sistence or dropout in sport, only a few studies have
considered the role that non-sport activities have on
sport motivation and persistence (Guillet, Sarrazin,
Carpenter, Trouilloud, & Cury, 2002; Scanlan,
Carpenter, Schmidt, Simons, & Keeler, 1993). The
results from these studies suggest that the more
athletes were attracted by competing activities, the
less they felt committed and thus persisted in their
chosen sport. Consequently, it may be suggested that
when young athletes spend considerable time in non-
sport activities, this might be the origin of a conflict
that leads to a reduction in sport involvement.
The presence or absence of a conflict between two
alternative activities is argued to be a function of the
type of motivation developed toward them. As Ryan
and Deci (2002) stated, the more individuals devel-
op self-determined forms of regulation towards
different activities, the more satisfied they feel, and
the less likely they are to experience conflicts
between those activities. This hypothesis has recently
been studied in the sport and exercise context;
Boiche and Sarrazin (2007a) found that perceived
conflict between sport and school was undermined
by self-determined motivation towards them, and
that perceived conflict was negatively related to sport
persistence. In a second study, Boiche and Sarrazin
(2007b) found similar results in an exercise context.
The perception of the positive effect of performing
one activity or another (labelled as the instrumen-
tality of roles’ perception, and considered as inverse
to perceived conflict) was positively predicted by
self-determined motivation to exercise and work,
and predicted frequency of exercise engagement.
These results illustrate the importance of consider-
ing self-determined motivation in potentially com-
peting activities to enhance our comprehension of
individuals’ choices and behaviour in a specific
context. The level of self-determined motivation
may be related to the perception that activities are
mutually beneficial as opposed to being in competi-
tion (and consequently with less perception of
conflict between them). The current study sought
to explore an SDT based model that introduced
perceived conflict between sport and study as a
variable affected by self-determined motivation,
Prospective study of sport dropout 3
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and that in turn influenced intention to practise
sport.
Age, gender and SDT
Several studies have indicated that the interest, use
of mastery goals and intrinsic motivation of students
decline with age (Digelidis & Papaioannou, 1999;
Van Wersch, Trew, & Turner, 1992). In terms of
gender mixed results have emerged; while some
studies report higher levels of intrinsic motivation
(Jaakkola & Sepponen, 1997), perceived competence
and enjoyment (Carroll & Loumidis, 2001) for boys,
others suggest that females perceived higher levels of
more self-determined types of motivation (Vallerand
& Bisonnette, 1992; Fortier, Vallerand, Briere, &
Provencher, 1995). More recently, Athanasios
(2007) analysed grade and gender differences in
students’ self-determination for participating in
physical education. His results showed a decline of
self-determination across grades, and only gender
differences in 11th grade (age 16 to 17), with boys
reporting higher levels of self-determination in
comparison to girls of the same age.
A further postulation of SDT is that the innate
needs are universal to all cultures, across gender, and
throughout all developmental periods (Ryan & Deci,
2002). To test this precept, Standage et al. (2005)
examined the invariance of the SDT model across
gender by using Structural Equation Modeling
(SEM) multisample invariance testing procedures.
Their results supported the tenets of SDT by
revealing the proposed psychological processes to
be invariant across male and female students. How-
ever, evidence of invariance is still relatively scarce
and thus another intention of the current study was
to analyse differences across age categories and
gender.
In summary, the primary objective of this study
was to verify a model (model A) in which we
hypothesized an indirect effect of perceived need
satisfaction on intention to practise sport through
self-determined motivation, an indirect effect of self-
determined motivation on intention to practise sport
through perceived conflict between sport and study,
and a direct effect of intention to practise sport on
dropout. We also set up an ‘‘alternative’’ model
(model B) which included a direct effect of perceived
need satisfaction on intention to practise sport.
Further, we analysed age and gender differences in
SDT variables, and examined invariance of an SDT
based model across age and gender by using SEM
multisample invariance testing procedures. It was
proposed that model and regression coefficients
would be invariant between groups created by age
or gender. Specifically, three age-groups were con-
sidered (according to the Spanish curriculum);
11�13 year-old students are finishing primary
school, 14�16 year-old students are in obligatory
secondary studies, and finally 17�19 year-olds are
preparing for university or to start work.
Methods
Participants
The sample consisted of 857 Spanish athletes, 680
boys and 177 girls, who participated in organized
competitions in different sports (athletics, swim-
ming, cycling, sailing, surfing, triathlon, skating,
canoeing, artistic gymnastics, climbing, horse riding,
karate, taekwondo, chess, table tennis, tennis, fen-
cing, judo, handball, volleyball, rugby, baseball,
handball team, basketball, football, indoor football,
water polo and hockey). Ages ranged from 11 to 19
(mean value 15.3, s �1.77). After 19 months, 229
athletes had dropped out (26.7%) and 628 athletes
persisted (73.3%).
Design and procedure
A prospective study was conducted over a 19-month
period. In the first stage the measures of interest
were administered to all the participants. This was
done in their training sessions and with their
previous consent. Nineteen months later, at the start
of the following season, the researchers phoned the
athletes and asked them if they had continued to
participate in their competitive sport.
Measures
To estimate the overall goodness of the fit, it is
generally recommended to report multiple indices
(Bollen, 1989). Based on the suggestions made by
several authors (Bentler, 1990; Bollen & Long,
1993; McDonald & Marsh, 1990; Mulaik, James,
Van Alstine, Bennett, Lind, & Stilwell, 1989), the
following indexes were used to evaluate the adequacy
of the models: ratio chi-square statistic-degrees of
freedom (x2/df; Wheaton, Muthen, Alwin, & Sum-
mers, 1977), comparative fit index (CFI; Bentler,
1990); Tucker-Lewis coefficient (TLI; Bentler and
Bonett, 1980), incremental fit index (IFI; Bollen,
1989), normed fit index (NFI; Bentler & Bonnet,
1980), and root mean square error of approximation
(RMSEA; Steiger & Lind, 1980).
The variables considered in the study were psycho-
logical need satisfaction in sport, self-determined
motivation in sport, perceived conflict between sport
and study; intention to practise competitive
sport in the future; and finally, sport dropout. All
with the exception of dropout were measured
through seven-point Likert scales, anchored with 1
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corresponding to ‘‘strongly disagree’’ and 7 ‘‘strongly
agree’’.
Psychological need satisfaction in sport was as-
sessed through three four-item sub-scales (12 items)
proposed by Guzman & Lukwu (2008), that mea-
sured perceptions of competence, autonomy and
relatedness. Examples of items are ‘‘I can perform
my sport with efficacy’’ (perceived competence); ‘‘I
feel supported by my coach and team mates’’ (per-
ceived relatedness); and ‘‘I practise and apply effort in
sport by my own decision’’ (perceived autonomy).
Alpha coefficients for the subscales were 0.81, 0.82
and 0.73, respectively, Fit indices from confirmatory
factorial analysis indicated an acceptable fit to the
data: x2/df �5.84; CFI �0.92; TLI �0.90;
IFI �0.92; NFI �0.90; RMSEA �0.075.
Sport motivation was measured using the Spanish
version (Guzman, Carratala, Garcıa Ferriol, &
Carratala, 2006) of the Sport Motivation Scale
(Pelletier et al., 1995). This scale comprised seven
four-item sub-scales (28 items) that measured dif-
ferent motivation types in the self-determination
continuum: IM toward knowledge, IM toward
accomplishment, IM toward stimulation, EM iden-
tified regulation, EM introjected regulation, EM
external regulation and amotivation. With the ex-
ception of IM toward experiencing stimulation
(0.69) and EM external regulation (0.69), alpha
coefficients for the subscales reached values over
0.70. Fit indices from the confirmatory factorial
analysis also showed an acceptable fit to the data: x2/
df �3.80; CFI �0.88; TLI �0.86; IFI �0.88;
NFI �0.84; RMSEA �0.057.
In this study we also considered an overall index of
self-determined motivation, the self-determination
index (SDI). This index is based on the ordered
pattern of existing correlations between the seven
motivational sub-scales (e.g. Li & Harmer, 1996),
and is calculated by giving each sub-scale a specific
loading dependent on the position held within the
self-determination continuum. A number of studies
support the use of this composite index (Ryan &
Connell, 1989; Sarrazin et al., 2002; Vallerand,
1997; Vallerand & Fortier, 1998; Vallerand & Losier,
1999). It is calculated from the following expression:
(((IM toward knowledge�IM toward accomplish-
ment�IM toward experiencing stimulation)/
3)�2)�EM identified regulation�((EM intro-
jected regulation�EM external regulation)/
2)�(Amotivation�2)), following Vallerand’s
(2007) recommendations.
Perception of conflict between competitive sport
practice and study was assessed through a four-item
scale created specifically for this study, comprising
items: ‘‘I feel that I can hardly keep doing all the
sport and study activities that I practice now.’’,
‘‘Practice of sport and study is incompatible’’, ‘‘I
am no longer able to simultaneously practice sport
and study’’ ‘‘I don’t feel strong enough to continue
doing sport and studying’’. The single dimension
explained 56.6% of variance. The component matrix
showed values between 0.80 and 0.68, and the alpha
coefficient for the subscale was 0.74. Fit indices from
the confirmatory factorial analysis were acceptable:
x2/df �10.10; CFI �0.98; TLI �0.93; IFI �0.98;
NFI �0.97; RMSEA �0.10.
The intention to practise (competitive) sport was
assessed using a dedicated four-item scale created
specifically for this study, including items such as ‘‘I
will continue to practise my sport in the coming
years’’; the alpha coefficient was 0.79. Fit indices
from the confirmatory factorial analysis were accep-
table: x2/df �4.76; CFI �0.99; TLI �0.98;
IFI �0.99; NFI �0.99; RMSEA �0.07. Finally,
sport dropout was determined through the athletes’
response to the question of whether or not they
continued with their competitive sport practice
(assessed 19 months later).
Data analysis
An initial MANOVA was conducted to examine
whether dropout, gender and age, or interactions
between them, had any significant effect on the
dependent variables considered in the study.
In line with previous motivation studies (Boiche &
Sarrazin, 2007a; Sarrazin et al., 2002), structural
equation modelling (SEM) using AMOS 17.0 was
used to test the hypothesized model, applying the
two-step approach advocated by Anderson &
Gerbing (1988).
The first step (measurement model) consisted of a
confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), which allowed
us to analyse the factor structure underlying each
construct and to ascertain the discriminating validity
of the factors sharing a measurement method (see
Perugini & Conner, 2000). We performed a max-
imum likelihood estimates procedure due to the
large sample size of the study and the quantitative
nature of the variables (see Figure 1).
The second step involved testing the hypothesized
model of sport dropout (see Figure 2) to explore
connections between the latent factors and dropout
behaviour in sport. As modification indexes and
previous research suggested we went on to establish
an alternative (model B), which included a new
regression path between perceived need satisfaction
and intention to practise sport.
The CFA and the structural model of sport
dropout (Figures 1 and 2) considered four latent
variables: psychological need satisfaction, sport SDI,
perceived conflict between sport and study, and
intention to practise. The latent variable of sport
SDI was measured by means of four indicators, each
Prospective study of sport dropout 5
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Perceived conflict
Psychological need
satisfaction
Indi
cato
r 1
Indi
cato
r 2
Indi
cato
r 3
Indi
cato
r 4
SDI Intention to
practice sport
.83 .86 .82 .84
Indi
cato
r 1
Indi
cato
r 2
Indi
cato
r 3
Indi
cato
r 4
.74 .75 .69 .71
Indi
cato
r 1
Indi
cato
r 2
Indi
cato
r 3
Indi
cato
r 4
.63 .58 .72 .69
Indi
cato
r 1
Indi
cato
r 2
Indi
cato
r 3
Indi
cato
r 4
.59 .71 .74 .82
.63 – .57 – .46
– .31 .64
.74
.31 .27 .33 .29 .45 .43 .52 .50 .61 .67 .48 .52 .65 .50 .45 .33
Figure 1. Coefficients of the measurement model.
6J.F.
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one calculated while applying the formula of the
index with one of the four items used to measure
each motivation type (i.e. Indicator 1 with item 1 of
IM of Knowledge, item 1 of IM of achievement, etc.;
Indicator 2 with item 2 of IM of knowledge, item 2
of IM of achievement, etc.). The latent variables of
perceived conflict between sport and study, and
intention to practise sport, were measured by means
of four indicators, each one representing an item of
the corresponding scale.
Finally, two analyses of invariance were
performed, one examining age (three groups) and
the other gender (two groups). Data were analysed
using maximum likelihood procedure since dropout
variable was categorical in nature (Rabe-Hesketh,
Skrondal & Pickles, 2005).
Results
MANOVA
A 2 (dropout or persistence)�2 (gender)�3 (age)
factorial analysis of variance was performed. Three
age intervals were considered, 11�13 (n�146), 14�16 (n�476), and 17�19 (n�236). Psychological
need satisfaction, SDI, intention to practise
sport, and perceived conflict were the dependent
variables. Multivariate contrasts revealed significant
effects for dropout (F �3.33; PB0.05; h2�0.016;
1�b �0.84 and age (F �5.52; PB0.001;
h2�9.026; 1�b �0.98). No significant effect was
found for gender, and no significant interactions
between the factors were identified.
Results of the inter-subject effects test indicated
that persistent athletes had a higher need satisfaction
and SDI, lower perception of conflict between sport
and study and higher levels of intention to practise
sport. Moreover, with age there was a significant
decline of SDI (mean values 6.08 for age category 1,
4.61 for age 2 and 4.22 for age 3), and intention to
practise sport (mean values 5.93 for age 1, 5.60 for
age 2 and 5.53 for age 3) (Table I).
Analysis of the proposed structural model
Step 1: Measurement model. The CFA model was
based on 16 observed measurements (composite
scores) and four latent constructs. Latent factors
were allowed to correlate freely during the assess-
ment of the measurement model (Anderson &
Gerbin, 1988). Overall, the measurement model
provided an adequate fit to the data: x2/df �3.152;
CFI �0.95; TLI �0.96; IFI �0.97; NFI �0.95;
RMSEA �0.050. Perceived conflict between sport
and study was negatively correlated with all the other
variables considered, and the correlations between
the latent variables ranged between �0.31 and 0.74,
indicating that the participants distinguished
between them (see Figure 1).
Indi
cato
r 1
Indi
cato
r 2
Indi
cato
r 3
Indi
cato
r 4
Psychological need
satisfaction
Self-determined motivation (SDI)
Intention to practice sport
Perceived conflict
Sport dropout
Indi
cato
r 1
Indi
cato
r 2
Indi
cato
r 3
Indi
cato
r 4
Indi
cato
r 1
Indi
cato
r 2
Indi
cato
r 3
Indi
cato
r 4
Indi
cato
r 1
Indi
cato
r 2
Indi
cato
r 3
Indi
cato
r 4
Added in model B
.66 .73 .63 .72
.81 .85 .79 .85
.34 .51 .53 .66
.54 .55 .49 .47 .31 .36 .35 .49
.59 .73 .71 .81
.73 .74 .70 .69 .55 .60 .74 .70
.63***
.53***
.21***
– .56**
–.18***
.27***
.39
.61
.31
.07
Figure 2. Coefficients of the structural models (A & B).
Prospective study of sport dropout 7
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Step 2: Structural model. Having assessed the ade-
quacy of the factor structure, we examined the
hypothesized relations among the four latent dimen-
sions and the actual dropout behaviour. Fit indexes
for model A were acceptable: x2/df �4.14;
CFI �0.94; TLI �0.94; IFI �0.94; NFI �0.92;
RMSEA �0.06. Nevertheless modification indices
of the model illustrated the potential value of
incorporating a direct effect of psychological need
satisfaction on intention to practise sport. This
regression path was proposed based on the sugges-
tion that psychological need satisfaction not only
influences motivation, but also other factors such as
well-being, which could determine intention to
practise sport and persistence/dropout (Standage
et al., 2003, 2005, 2006). Consequently, the fit
indices for model B were improved: x2/df �2.93;
CFI �0.96; TLI �0.96; IFI �0.96; NFI �0.95;
RMSEA �0.05 compared to model A. Neverthe-
less, in order to be sure that model B had better fit to
the data than model A we performed a specification
search (defined as the modification of an initial model
to improve fit; Long, 1983). A specification search is
typically undertaken to detect and correct specifica-
tion errors between an initial theory-implied model
and the true population model for the variables
under study. The approach for conducting the
specification search was to examine model fit im-
provement when this new regression path was
introduced in model B. The fit function criteria
showed better fit to model B: chi-square (C), (model
A �476.55; model B �333.65), chi-square�df
(x2�df) (model A �361.55; model B �219.65),
Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) (model
A �246.55; model B �105.65), Browne-Cudeck
criterion (BCC) (model A �241.61; model
B �100.76), Bayes Information Criterion (BIC)
(model A �136.14; model B �0.000), chi-square
divided by the degrees of freedom (x2/df) (model
A �4.14; model B �2.93), and significance level
(P) (model A �0.000; model B �0.000).
Specifically, within model B, psychological need
satisfaction positively predicted SDI and intention to
practise sport (PB0.001). SDI negatively predicted
perceived conflict (P B 0.001), and positively pre-
dicted intention to practise sport. Perceived conflict
negatively predicted intention to practise sport
(PB0.001), and finally intention to practise sport
predicted dropout (PB0.001). Estimates for both
models are presented in Figure 2.
Analysis of invariance. Two multigroup analyses of
invariance were performed, one examining age and
the other gender. These investigated whether that
model B operated equivalently across groups, testing
the null hypothesis that there were no differences
between them. A lack of difference between the twoTab
leI.
Mea
ns,
stan
dard
dev
iati
on
s,F
,si
gn
ifica
nt
dif
fere
nce
san
def
fect
size
inte
rms
of
per
sist
ence
,gen
der
an
dage.
Per
sist
ent
Dro
pou
tG
irls
Boys
Age
1A
ge
2A
ge
3
mea
ns
mea
ns
Fh
2p
art
ial
1�
bm
ean
sm
ean
sF
h2
part
ial
1�
bm
ean
sm
ean
sm
ean
sF
h2
part
ial
1�
b
Nee
dsa
tisf
act
ion
5.5
80.9
15.1
80.9
111.2
1**
0.1
30.9
25.3
70.9
15.5
00.9
31.3
60.0
02
0.2
15.6
00.8
55.4
41.0
05.4
80.8
10.6
30.0
01
0.1
6
SD
I5.2
34.0
23.4
33.8
27.7
5*
0.0
07
0.7
04.5
73.9
54.7
94.0
70.0
30.0
00
0.0
76.0
83.6
84.6
14.1
34.2
23.9
35.7
0**
0.0
14
0.8
9
Per
ceiv
edco
nfl
ict
2.9
21.3
83.3
31.4
55.9
0*
0.0
07
0.6
83.0
31.3
23.0
31.4
30.4
60.0
01
0.1
02.7
51.3
23.0
71.3
83.1
31.5
01.6
40.0
04
0.3
5
Inte
nti
on
top
ract
ice
5.8
01.1
55.1
91.3
510.5
1**
0.0
12
0.9
05.5
21.3
55.6
71.2
01.0
20.0
01
0.1
75.9
31.0
45.6
01.2
65.5
31.2
73.7
2*
0.0
09
0.6
9
*PB
0.0
5
**PB
0.0
05.
***PB
0.0
01.
8 J.F. Guzman & K. Kingston
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models would be evidence of invariance (groups are
equivalent). Tests across ages assuming that model B
is unconstrained showed significant variance to
measurement weights (^x2�45.71; P�0.001),
measurement intercepts (^x2�136.60; PB0.001),
measurement residuals (^x2�145.89; PB0.001),
structural weights (^x2�171.15; PB0.001) and
structural residuals (^x2�274.80; PB0.001). The
same tests of invariance across gender also showed
significant variance to measurement weights
(^x2�23.62; P�0.035), measurement intercepts
(^x2�69.71; PB0.001), measurement residuals
(^x2�125.49; PB0.001), structural weights
(Dx2�71.37; PB0.001) and structural residuals
(^x2�101.33; PB0.001). Nevertheless, examina-
tion of the path coefficients between the uncon-
strained model and the constrained models
suggested no differences across both age categories
and gender. This indicates that the relationships
were universal for this particular sample (see Table
II).
Discussion
The primary aim of this research was to test a model,
grounded in SDT, to predict sport dropout. This
model represents a development to the previous
models studied in sport from two aspects. Firstly it
takes into account the role that other life domains
may play by introducing perceived conflict between
sport and study as a model variable (Boiche &
Sarrazin, 2007a, b). Secondly, a new regression
path was introduced from psychological need satis-
faction to intention to practise sport in an alternative
model B.
Results confirmed a significant inverse relation-
ship between self-determined motivation and per-
ceived conflict (between sport and study), and
between perceived conflict and intention to practise
sport. It could be concluded from these results that
the higher and more self-determined the motivation
of a person towards sport, the less conflict with study
he/she will perceive; further this leads to an asso-
ciated increased intention to persist in the activity.
Comparison of the fit indices between model A
and the alternative regression model indicated a
better fit for model B. This supported previous
research which suggested strong consequences of
psychological need satisfaction on the emotions,
cognitions and behaviour (Standage et al., 2003,
2005, 2006). Bearing this in mind, future studies
could explore if other variables such as well-being
could mediate this relationship. This new regression
path indicates that, although self-determined moti-
vation positively predicted the intention to practise
sport, the effects were lower in comparison with
studies that did not consider direct effects of
psychological need satisfaction on intention to prac-
tise sport (Sarrazin et al., 2002). This result suggests
that emotional variables related to psychological
need satisfaction could be more important than
self-determined motivation in predicting intention
to practise sport, and consequently sport dropout.
It is also important to consider that the relation-
ship between self-determined motivation and per-
ceived conflict was negative and significant.
This parallels results obtained by other studies
in different contexts: work�family (Senecal, Valler-
and, & Guay, 2001), education�interpersonal rela-
tionships (Senecal, Julien, & Guay, 2003) and
education�leisure conflict (Ratelle, Vallerand, Sene-
cal, & Provencher, 2005). Also the predictive rela-
tionship of perceived conflict with intention to
practise sport was significant. These findings give
support to the SDT hypotheses: with more self-
determined motivation different activities are per-
ceived as less incompatible, and consequently the
intention to continue practising them is higher (Deci
& Ryan, 2000).
The result of the analysis of invariance showed
that while measurement weights and intercepts,
together with structural weights and residuals, varied
Table II. b estimations and results of the regression path analyses of invariance.
Age Gender
Age 1 Age 2 Age 3 ^x2 (sig.) Boys Girls ^x2 (sig.)
Perceived need satisfaction 0 Intention 0.54*** 0.54*** 0.60*** 0.93 (ns) 0.58*** 0.33** 0.72 (ns)
Perceived need satisfaction 0 SDI 0.63*** 0.65*** 0.59*** 0.33 (ns) 0.62*** 0.68*** 0.60 (ns)
SDI 0 Intention of sport practice 0.21** 0.16* 0.19* 2.03 (ns) 0.21*** 0.26*** 0.52 (ns)
SDI 0 Perceived conflict �0.55*** �0.54*** �0.53*** 2.68 (ns) �0.55*** �0.55*** 0.33 (ns)
Perceived conflict 0 Intention �0.17 �0.22*** �0.13 2.78 (ns) �0.19*** �0.15 0.02 (ns)
Intention to practice sport 0 Dropout �0.30*** �0.29*** �0.20*** 0.10 (ns) �0.28*** �0.18* 2.62 (ns)
*PB0.05.
**PB0.005.
***PB0.001.
ns�non significant.
Dx2: difference of x2 between the unconstrained and constrained models.
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across age and gender, the regression path
coefficients were similar. These results fit with the
idea that although gender and age produce variations
in level of responses to the dependent variables, the
relationships proposed within the SDT are universal
to all cultures, across gender, and throughout all
developmental periods (Ryan & Deci, 2002), and
with studies that analysed it (Standage et al., 2005).
Further studies incorporating personal variables
such as personality or emotional intelligence could
be tested to establish if motivational variables could
determine behaviour in a different way as a function
of age or gender.
The secondary purpose of the study was to
examine age and gender differences in composite
variables of the SDT based model, namely: psycho-
logical need satisfaction, self-determined motivation,
perceived conflict between sport and study, and
intention to practise sport. MANOVA results
showed no differences related with gender. These
results are congruent with those reported by Atha-
nasios (2007) yet contrast with those that found
gender differences in self-determined motivation
(Carroll & Loumidis, 2001; Fortier et al., 1995;
Jaakkola & Sepponen, 1997; Vallerand & Bisonnette,
1992). The broad sample of the study and variety of
sports analysed could help to explain these results. In
a very specific sample and sport it may be easier to
find differences due to gender characteristics, as the
value or prestige that athletes from the same gender
assign to sport participation might be isolated; with a
large heterogeneous sample those differences would
tend to be compensated for. On the other hand
results showed a decrease in self-determined motiva-
tion and intention to practise sport associated with
age, giving support to previous studies (Athanasios,
2007; Digelidis & Papaioannou, 1999; Van Wersch,
Trew, & Turner, 1992), and contributing to under-
standing the massive dropout rates in adolescence
reported by several studies (Gould, 1987, Russell,
Allen & Wilson, 1996; Sallis & Patrick, 1996;
Wankel & Mummery, 1996).
Limits and applied implications
This study showed that the proposed model is
reliable at different ages and both genders, and helps
to understand variables related to sport dropout.
Nevertheless it has to be considered that a model is a
simplification of the reality, and other psychological
variables, such as self-esteem, intelligence and well-
being (Balaguer, Castillo, & Duda, 2008; Nunez,
Leon, Gonzalez, & Martın-Albo, 2011; Reinboth &
Duda, 2004, 2006) could be introduced to better
understand the process and to increase the explained
variance of dropout.
Although the model could be improved the results
of this study have implications for sport practice that
could help professors and coaches to prevent sport
dropout. The main contribution is that they should
create climates that promote their athletes’ need
satisfaction. Different studies show that mastery
climates and autonomy supportive climates
(Balaguer et al., 2008; Reinboth & Duda, 2006)
increase need satisfaction and consequently self-
determined motivation.
Conclusion
The major contribution of this study is that it
supports the relationships that have been proposed
based on SDT, and adds a variable to be incorpo-
rated (perceived conflict), and a direct effect of
psychological need satisfaction on intention to prac-
tise sport. Moreover the invariance of regression
weights between age and gender groups suggests that
the relationships proposed in the model are
universal.
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by a grant from the
Consell Valencia de l’Esport (CCEE2006-02)
(Spain).
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