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Prospective study of sport dropout: A motivationalanalysis as a function of age and genderJose Francisco Guzmán a & Kieran Kingston ba Physical Education and Sport, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spainb Sport Psychology, University of Wales Institute, Cardiff, UK

Available online: 01 Nov 2011

To cite this article: Jose Francisco Guzmán & Kieran Kingston (2011): Prospective study of sport dropout: A motivationalanalysis as a function of age and gender, European Journal of Sport Science, DOI:10.1080/17461391.2011.573002

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ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Prospective study of sport dropout: A motivational analysis as afunction of age and gender

JOSE FRANCISCO GUZMAN1 & KIERAN KINGSTON2

1Physical Education and Sport, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain, and 2Sport Psychology, University of Wales Institute,

Cardiff, UK

AbstractIntroduction: This paper aimed to analyse the predictive ability of a self-determination theory (SDT) based model describingcompetitive sport dropout, and variance as a function of age and gender. Variables included in the model were:psychological need satisfaction, self-determined motivation, perceived conflict between sport and study, intention topractise sport, and dropout.Methods: A prospective study was performed over a period of 19 months. Variables considered as predictors of sport dropoutwere measured initially, and after 19 months persistence or dropout was assessed. The sample consisted of 857 athletes aged11�19 (mean value 15.3; standard deviation �1.77), 680 males and 177 females.Results: Structural equation modelling illustrated support for an ‘‘alternative’’ model that incorporated a direct relationshipbetween psychological need satisfaction and intention to practise sport. Analysis of invariance showed that the model wasconsistent as a function of age and gender, i.e. no differences were found in regression weights. MANOVA, however,revealed some group differences with respect to the dependent variables. Specifically, in terms of engagement, althoughassessed at the start of the study, those athletes who persisted at 19 months demonstrated greater need satisfaction, self-determined motivation and intention to practise sport than those who dropped out. Age related differences were alsoidentified: with increased age self-determined motivation and intention to practise sport decreased, while there were nodifferences in need satisfaction or perceived conflict between sport and study. There were no differences related to gender.Discussion: The results support previous studies that had used SDT to predict sport dropout, specifically those that hadreported an inverse relationship between self-determined motivation and perceived conflict between activities. Further, itsuggests that other variables (emotional) may play a specific role in predicting intention to continue engagement with sport.Conclusion: The major contribution of the study is in validating a motivational model predicting sport dropout whichincorporates perceived conflict and the direct effect of psychological need satisfaction on the intention to practise sport. Theinvariance of regression weights between age and gender groups suggests that the relationships proposed in the model areuniversal.

Keywords: Motivation, self-determination, adolescence, structural equation modelling

Introduction

Sport dropout has increased in its prevalence as a

topic of research with early studies illustrating

significant dropout rates in adolescence (Gould,

1987; Russell, Allen, & Wilson, 1996; Sallis &

Patrick, 1996; Wankel & Mummery, 1996); these

are most pronounced between 13 and 18 years

(Sallis, 2000). Defined as ‘‘the hypothetical con-

struct used to describe the internal and/or external

forces that produce the initiation, direction, intensity,

and persistence of behaviour’’ (Vallerand & Thill,

1993, p. 18), motivation has been considered a key

variable in predicting dropout in sport (Gould, 1987;

Sarrazin & Guillet, 2001; Vallerand, Deci, & Ryan,

1987; Vallerand & Losier, 1999; Vallerand & Rous-

seau, 2001; Weiss & Chaumenton, 1992).

Self-determination theory (SDT) (Deci & Ryan,

1985a, b, 2000; Ryan & Deci, 2007), has proved

effective in illuminating the understanding of moti-

vational processes in physical activity and sport

dropout (see Pelletier, Fortier, Vallerand, & Briere,

Correspondence: Jose Francisco Guzman, University of Valencia, Physical Education and Sport, C/ Gasco Oliag n8 3, Valencia, 46010,

Spain. E-mail: Jose.F.Guzman@uv.es

European Journal of Sport Science

2011, 1�12, iFirst article

ISSN 1746-1391 print/ISSN 1536-7290 online # 2011 European College of Sport Science

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17461391.2011.573002

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2001; Sarrazin, Boiche, & Pelletier, 2007; Sarrazin,

Vallerand, Guillet, Pelletier, & Cury, 2002; Vallerand

& Grouzet, 2001; Vallerand & Perreault, 1999;

Vallerand & Rousseau, 2001). In adopting this

perspective, we will consider previous self-

determination based models of dropout, psychologi-

cal need satisfaction, perceived conflict between

sport and study, and the potential mediating effects

of age and gender.

Specifically, the aims of the study were: (1) to test

a predictive model of sport dropout based on SDT

that incorporates perceived conflict between sport

and study; (2) to study the invariance of the model as

a function of age or gender; and (3) to analyse group

differences in the dependent variables.

The structure of motivation

From an SDT perspective people are typically

viewed as having multiple motives, all of which

determine the overall quality of motivation (Ryan

& Connell, 1989). These motives may be differen-

tiated in terms of their degree of internalization,

varying from intrinsic motives that reflect one’s self,

to extrinsic motives experienced as external to the

self (Deci & Ryan, 1985a, b, 2000; Ryan & Deci,

2007).

Intrinsic motivation (IM) refers to doing an

activity ‘‘for its own sake’’, for the rewards inherent

in the activity (Deci & Ryan, 1985a, b, 2000; Ryan &

Deci, 2007). Although not described within Deci

and Ryan’s seminal work on self-determination

theory, according to Vallerand and colleagues

(Vallerand et al., 1992), three types of IM have

been identified: IM toward knowledge (interest in

progressing in the understanding of the activity), IM

toward experiencing stimulation (interest in the

activity due to the feelings experienced while

performing it) and IM toward accomplishment

(interest in continuing to gain skills).

Extrinsic motivation (EM) refers to behaviour

motivated by expected outcomes or contingencies

not inherent to the activity itself (Deci & Ryan,

1985a, b, 2000; Ryan & Deci, 2007). Extrinsic

motives may be differentiated in terms of their

degree of internalization. The most internalized is

EM-identified regulation (Ryan & Deci, 2007)

which involves engagement in sport to fulfil goals

considered to be relevant by the subject to his/her

personal development. EM-introjected regulation is

less self-determined and refers to engagement as a

way to alleviate guilt for not practising. Finally, the

least internalized form of extrinsic motivation is EM-

external regulation, where engagement is driven by

the opportunity to receive a prize or a reward (Deci

& Ryan, 2000).

SDT also describes a state of amotivation; this

represents a relative lack of self-determination and is

defined as having neither intention nor energy

directed toward action (Ryan & Deci, 2007). This

has been associated with very negative emotional,

cognitive and behavioural consequences (Pelletier

et al., 1995; Vallerand & Bissonette, 1992).

SDT models of dropout

A number of studies have examined predictors of

dropout in competitive sport (Pelletier et al., 2001;

Sarrazin et al., 2002) and exercise’s persistence from

an SDT viewpoint (Fortier & Grenier, 1999).

Vallerand and colleagues (Vallerand, 1997, 2001,

2007; Vallerand & Losier, 1999) proposed a four-

stage causal sequence between motivation determi-

nants and motivation consequences (Social factors

0 Psychological mediators 0 Motivation types 0Consequences). Pelletier et al. (2001) evaluated the

last two stages of this model in competitive sport

using a two-year prospective design to analyse the

effects of motivation on continued participation (in

competition) in a sample of adolescent swimmers.

Results suggested that athletes who dropped out at

10 and 21 months were characterized as having less

self-determined motivation. Further, while IM was

associated with persistence and positive emotions,

amotivation predicted waning performance, negative

emotions and dropping out. The relationship be-

tween the less self-determined types of motivation

and dropout was less clear. Introjected regulation

was positively related to persistence at 10 months,

while external regulation only was negatively related

to persistence at 21 months.

In contrast to the approach of Vallerand and

colleagues, Sarrazin et al. (2002) analysed a sport

dropout model with a five-stage causal sequence.

Perceived motivational climate was considered as an

antecedent of psychological need satisfaction.

Further, they proposed that, based on the theory of

planned behaviour (Fishbein & Ajzen, 1975), that

intention to practise sports was a mediating variable

between motivation and dropout/persistence beha-

viour. Thus the model included the following steps:

Task/Ego involving climate 0 Satisfaction of psy-

chological needs 0 Self-determined motivation 0Intention to practise sports 0 Dropout. Sarrazin

et al. (2002) observed 335 competitive female

handballers for 21 months, and results from struc-

tural equation modelling analyses provided support

for the model; the strength of the path from

behavioural intentions to dropout behaviour was

moderate (b �0.55). Comparison of mean scores

between persistent players and dropouts indicated

that the former perceived the motivational climate as

being more task-involving, they experienced greater

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satisfaction of their three psychological needs, and

they reported higher IM and lower amotivation and

intention to drop out.

The current study explores all but the first stage of

the Sarrazin et al. (2002) model, and incorporates

the relationship between psychological need satisfac-

tion and perceived conflict between sport and study.

Psychological need satisfaction and motivation

A central proposal from SDT is that the universal

and innate needs of autonomy, competence and

relatedness represent essential nutriments for psy-

chological health and well-being (Ryan & Deci,

2000; Standage, Gillison, & Treasure, 2007). Auton-

omy refers to the degree of volition one feels in

pursuing the activity and the need to feel congruence

between an activity and one’s values (Deci & Ryan,

2000). Competence is the desire to interact effec-

tively with the environment and to attain valued

outcomes (White, 1959), while relatedness is the

desire to feel connected to significant others (Deci &

Ryan, 2000). When social factors (often associated

with the coach) are perceived as supporting these

perceptions, they have a positive impact on intrinsic

motivation, but if they undermine autonomy, com-

petence and relatedness, they are likely to lead

motivation towards extrinsic aspects or, if not

achieved, to amotivation (Connell & Wellborn,

1991; Deci & Ryan, 1985b, 1991; Vallerand, 1997;

Vallerand & Losier, 1999).

Although each psychological needs perception

applies a direct and individualized effect on motiva-

tion, some studies have considered a composite

variable labelled psychological need satisfaction

(Ntoumanis, 2005; Standage, Duda, & Pensgaard,

2005; Hagger, Chatzisarantis, & Harris, 2006). For

example, Ntoumanis (2005) found a strong relation-

ship between this composite variable and self-

determined motivation (b �0.73), while Hagger

et al. (2006) indicated that the shared variance

among the psychological needs factors can be

explained by a higher-order factor that captures all

three basic needs in a single latent construct.

Research indicates that psychological need satis-

faction has effects on psychological well-being,

cognitive responses and reported behavioural out-

comes (Standage, Duda, & Ntoumanis, 2003; Duda,

& Ntoumanis, 2006; Standage et al., 2005).

Standage et al. (2005), for example, found in their

sample of secondary school students that need

satisfaction had positive indirect effects on adaptive

physical education outcomes (i.e. concentration,

preference for challenge, positive affect and lower

unhappiness). Thus, it could be hypothesized that

psychological needs could not only influence intention

to practise sport through self-determined motiva-

tion, but also by influencing other affective factors,

such as well-being or positive affect. Since no studies

to date have considered the direct effect of psycho-

logical need satisfaction on intention to practise

sport, one of the objectives of this study was to

analyse if this regression path improves an SDT

based model to predict sport dropout.

Perceived conflict and sport dropout

Although a number of studies have demonstrated the

value of self-determined motivation to predict per-

sistence or dropout in sport, only a few studies have

considered the role that non-sport activities have on

sport motivation and persistence (Guillet, Sarrazin,

Carpenter, Trouilloud, & Cury, 2002; Scanlan,

Carpenter, Schmidt, Simons, & Keeler, 1993). The

results from these studies suggest that the more

athletes were attracted by competing activities, the

less they felt committed and thus persisted in their

chosen sport. Consequently, it may be suggested that

when young athletes spend considerable time in non-

sport activities, this might be the origin of a conflict

that leads to a reduction in sport involvement.

The presence or absence of a conflict between two

alternative activities is argued to be a function of the

type of motivation developed toward them. As Ryan

and Deci (2002) stated, the more individuals devel-

op self-determined forms of regulation towards

different activities, the more satisfied they feel, and

the less likely they are to experience conflicts

between those activities. This hypothesis has recently

been studied in the sport and exercise context;

Boiche and Sarrazin (2007a) found that perceived

conflict between sport and school was undermined

by self-determined motivation towards them, and

that perceived conflict was negatively related to sport

persistence. In a second study, Boiche and Sarrazin

(2007b) found similar results in an exercise context.

The perception of the positive effect of performing

one activity or another (labelled as the instrumen-

tality of roles’ perception, and considered as inverse

to perceived conflict) was positively predicted by

self-determined motivation to exercise and work,

and predicted frequency of exercise engagement.

These results illustrate the importance of consider-

ing self-determined motivation in potentially com-

peting activities to enhance our comprehension of

individuals’ choices and behaviour in a specific

context. The level of self-determined motivation

may be related to the perception that activities are

mutually beneficial as opposed to being in competi-

tion (and consequently with less perception of

conflict between them). The current study sought

to explore an SDT based model that introduced

perceived conflict between sport and study as a

variable affected by self-determined motivation,

Prospective study of sport dropout 3

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and that in turn influenced intention to practise

sport.

Age, gender and SDT

Several studies have indicated that the interest, use

of mastery goals and intrinsic motivation of students

decline with age (Digelidis & Papaioannou, 1999;

Van Wersch, Trew, & Turner, 1992). In terms of

gender mixed results have emerged; while some

studies report higher levels of intrinsic motivation

(Jaakkola & Sepponen, 1997), perceived competence

and enjoyment (Carroll & Loumidis, 2001) for boys,

others suggest that females perceived higher levels of

more self-determined types of motivation (Vallerand

& Bisonnette, 1992; Fortier, Vallerand, Briere, &

Provencher, 1995). More recently, Athanasios

(2007) analysed grade and gender differences in

students’ self-determination for participating in

physical education. His results showed a decline of

self-determination across grades, and only gender

differences in 11th grade (age 16 to 17), with boys

reporting higher levels of self-determination in

comparison to girls of the same age.

A further postulation of SDT is that the innate

needs are universal to all cultures, across gender, and

throughout all developmental periods (Ryan & Deci,

2002). To test this precept, Standage et al. (2005)

examined the invariance of the SDT model across

gender by using Structural Equation Modeling

(SEM) multisample invariance testing procedures.

Their results supported the tenets of SDT by

revealing the proposed psychological processes to

be invariant across male and female students. How-

ever, evidence of invariance is still relatively scarce

and thus another intention of the current study was

to analyse differences across age categories and

gender.

In summary, the primary objective of this study

was to verify a model (model A) in which we

hypothesized an indirect effect of perceived need

satisfaction on intention to practise sport through

self-determined motivation, an indirect effect of self-

determined motivation on intention to practise sport

through perceived conflict between sport and study,

and a direct effect of intention to practise sport on

dropout. We also set up an ‘‘alternative’’ model

(model B) which included a direct effect of perceived

need satisfaction on intention to practise sport.

Further, we analysed age and gender differences in

SDT variables, and examined invariance of an SDT

based model across age and gender by using SEM

multisample invariance testing procedures. It was

proposed that model and regression coefficients

would be invariant between groups created by age

or gender. Specifically, three age-groups were con-

sidered (according to the Spanish curriculum);

11�13 year-old students are finishing primary

school, 14�16 year-old students are in obligatory

secondary studies, and finally 17�19 year-olds are

preparing for university or to start work.

Methods

Participants

The sample consisted of 857 Spanish athletes, 680

boys and 177 girls, who participated in organized

competitions in different sports (athletics, swim-

ming, cycling, sailing, surfing, triathlon, skating,

canoeing, artistic gymnastics, climbing, horse riding,

karate, taekwondo, chess, table tennis, tennis, fen-

cing, judo, handball, volleyball, rugby, baseball,

handball team, basketball, football, indoor football,

water polo and hockey). Ages ranged from 11 to 19

(mean value 15.3, s �1.77). After 19 months, 229

athletes had dropped out (26.7%) and 628 athletes

persisted (73.3%).

Design and procedure

A prospective study was conducted over a 19-month

period. In the first stage the measures of interest

were administered to all the participants. This was

done in their training sessions and with their

previous consent. Nineteen months later, at the start

of the following season, the researchers phoned the

athletes and asked them if they had continued to

participate in their competitive sport.

Measures

To estimate the overall goodness of the fit, it is

generally recommended to report multiple indices

(Bollen, 1989). Based on the suggestions made by

several authors (Bentler, 1990; Bollen & Long,

1993; McDonald & Marsh, 1990; Mulaik, James,

Van Alstine, Bennett, Lind, & Stilwell, 1989), the

following indexes were used to evaluate the adequacy

of the models: ratio chi-square statistic-degrees of

freedom (x2/df; Wheaton, Muthen, Alwin, & Sum-

mers, 1977), comparative fit index (CFI; Bentler,

1990); Tucker-Lewis coefficient (TLI; Bentler and

Bonett, 1980), incremental fit index (IFI; Bollen,

1989), normed fit index (NFI; Bentler & Bonnet,

1980), and root mean square error of approximation

(RMSEA; Steiger & Lind, 1980).

The variables considered in the study were psycho-

logical need satisfaction in sport, self-determined

motivation in sport, perceived conflict between sport

and study; intention to practise competitive

sport in the future; and finally, sport dropout. All

with the exception of dropout were measured

through seven-point Likert scales, anchored with 1

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corresponding to ‘‘strongly disagree’’ and 7 ‘‘strongly

agree’’.

Psychological need satisfaction in sport was as-

sessed through three four-item sub-scales (12 items)

proposed by Guzman & Lukwu (2008), that mea-

sured perceptions of competence, autonomy and

relatedness. Examples of items are ‘‘I can perform

my sport with efficacy’’ (perceived competence); ‘‘I

feel supported by my coach and team mates’’ (per-

ceived relatedness); and ‘‘I practise and apply effort in

sport by my own decision’’ (perceived autonomy).

Alpha coefficients for the subscales were 0.81, 0.82

and 0.73, respectively, Fit indices from confirmatory

factorial analysis indicated an acceptable fit to the

data: x2/df �5.84; CFI �0.92; TLI �0.90;

IFI �0.92; NFI �0.90; RMSEA �0.075.

Sport motivation was measured using the Spanish

version (Guzman, Carratala, Garcıa Ferriol, &

Carratala, 2006) of the Sport Motivation Scale

(Pelletier et al., 1995). This scale comprised seven

four-item sub-scales (28 items) that measured dif-

ferent motivation types in the self-determination

continuum: IM toward knowledge, IM toward

accomplishment, IM toward stimulation, EM iden-

tified regulation, EM introjected regulation, EM

external regulation and amotivation. With the ex-

ception of IM toward experiencing stimulation

(0.69) and EM external regulation (0.69), alpha

coefficients for the subscales reached values over

0.70. Fit indices from the confirmatory factorial

analysis also showed an acceptable fit to the data: x2/

df �3.80; CFI �0.88; TLI �0.86; IFI �0.88;

NFI �0.84; RMSEA �0.057.

In this study we also considered an overall index of

self-determined motivation, the self-determination

index (SDI). This index is based on the ordered

pattern of existing correlations between the seven

motivational sub-scales (e.g. Li & Harmer, 1996),

and is calculated by giving each sub-scale a specific

loading dependent on the position held within the

self-determination continuum. A number of studies

support the use of this composite index (Ryan &

Connell, 1989; Sarrazin et al., 2002; Vallerand,

1997; Vallerand & Fortier, 1998; Vallerand & Losier,

1999). It is calculated from the following expression:

(((IM toward knowledge�IM toward accomplish-

ment�IM toward experiencing stimulation)/

3)�2)�EM identified regulation�((EM intro-

jected regulation�EM external regulation)/

2)�(Amotivation�2)), following Vallerand’s

(2007) recommendations.

Perception of conflict between competitive sport

practice and study was assessed through a four-item

scale created specifically for this study, comprising

items: ‘‘I feel that I can hardly keep doing all the

sport and study activities that I practice now.’’,

‘‘Practice of sport and study is incompatible’’, ‘‘I

am no longer able to simultaneously practice sport

and study’’ ‘‘I don’t feel strong enough to continue

doing sport and studying’’. The single dimension

explained 56.6% of variance. The component matrix

showed values between 0.80 and 0.68, and the alpha

coefficient for the subscale was 0.74. Fit indices from

the confirmatory factorial analysis were acceptable:

x2/df �10.10; CFI �0.98; TLI �0.93; IFI �0.98;

NFI �0.97; RMSEA �0.10.

The intention to practise (competitive) sport was

assessed using a dedicated four-item scale created

specifically for this study, including items such as ‘‘I

will continue to practise my sport in the coming

years’’; the alpha coefficient was 0.79. Fit indices

from the confirmatory factorial analysis were accep-

table: x2/df �4.76; CFI �0.99; TLI �0.98;

IFI �0.99; NFI �0.99; RMSEA �0.07. Finally,

sport dropout was determined through the athletes’

response to the question of whether or not they

continued with their competitive sport practice

(assessed 19 months later).

Data analysis

An initial MANOVA was conducted to examine

whether dropout, gender and age, or interactions

between them, had any significant effect on the

dependent variables considered in the study.

In line with previous motivation studies (Boiche &

Sarrazin, 2007a; Sarrazin et al., 2002), structural

equation modelling (SEM) using AMOS 17.0 was

used to test the hypothesized model, applying the

two-step approach advocated by Anderson &

Gerbing (1988).

The first step (measurement model) consisted of a

confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), which allowed

us to analyse the factor structure underlying each

construct and to ascertain the discriminating validity

of the factors sharing a measurement method (see

Perugini & Conner, 2000). We performed a max-

imum likelihood estimates procedure due to the

large sample size of the study and the quantitative

nature of the variables (see Figure 1).

The second step involved testing the hypothesized

model of sport dropout (see Figure 2) to explore

connections between the latent factors and dropout

behaviour in sport. As modification indexes and

previous research suggested we went on to establish

an alternative (model B), which included a new

regression path between perceived need satisfaction

and intention to practise sport.

The CFA and the structural model of sport

dropout (Figures 1 and 2) considered four latent

variables: psychological need satisfaction, sport SDI,

perceived conflict between sport and study, and

intention to practise. The latent variable of sport

SDI was measured by means of four indicators, each

Prospective study of sport dropout 5

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Perceived conflict

Psychological need

satisfaction

Indi

cato

r 1

Indi

cato

r 2

Indi

cato

r 3

Indi

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r 4

SDI Intention to

practice sport

.83 .86 .82 .84

Indi

cato

r 1

Indi

cato

r 2

Indi

cato

r 3

Indi

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.74 .75 .69 .71

Indi

cato

r 1

Indi

cato

r 2

Indi

cato

r 3

Indi

cato

r 4

.63 .58 .72 .69

Indi

cato

r 1

Indi

cato

r 2

Indi

cato

r 3

Indi

cato

r 4

.59 .71 .74 .82

.63 – .57 – .46

– .31 .64

.74

.31 .27 .33 .29 .45 .43 .52 .50 .61 .67 .48 .52 .65 .50 .45 .33

Figure 1. Coefficients of the measurement model.

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one calculated while applying the formula of the

index with one of the four items used to measure

each motivation type (i.e. Indicator 1 with item 1 of

IM of Knowledge, item 1 of IM of achievement, etc.;

Indicator 2 with item 2 of IM of knowledge, item 2

of IM of achievement, etc.). The latent variables of

perceived conflict between sport and study, and

intention to practise sport, were measured by means

of four indicators, each one representing an item of

the corresponding scale.

Finally, two analyses of invariance were

performed, one examining age (three groups) and

the other gender (two groups). Data were analysed

using maximum likelihood procedure since dropout

variable was categorical in nature (Rabe-Hesketh,

Skrondal & Pickles, 2005).

Results

MANOVA

A 2 (dropout or persistence)�2 (gender)�3 (age)

factorial analysis of variance was performed. Three

age intervals were considered, 11�13 (n�146), 14�16 (n�476), and 17�19 (n�236). Psychological

need satisfaction, SDI, intention to practise

sport, and perceived conflict were the dependent

variables. Multivariate contrasts revealed significant

effects for dropout (F �3.33; PB0.05; h2�0.016;

1�b �0.84 and age (F �5.52; PB0.001;

h2�9.026; 1�b �0.98). No significant effect was

found for gender, and no significant interactions

between the factors were identified.

Results of the inter-subject effects test indicated

that persistent athletes had a higher need satisfaction

and SDI, lower perception of conflict between sport

and study and higher levels of intention to practise

sport. Moreover, with age there was a significant

decline of SDI (mean values 6.08 for age category 1,

4.61 for age 2 and 4.22 for age 3), and intention to

practise sport (mean values 5.93 for age 1, 5.60 for

age 2 and 5.53 for age 3) (Table I).

Analysis of the proposed structural model

Step 1: Measurement model. The CFA model was

based on 16 observed measurements (composite

scores) and four latent constructs. Latent factors

were allowed to correlate freely during the assess-

ment of the measurement model (Anderson &

Gerbin, 1988). Overall, the measurement model

provided an adequate fit to the data: x2/df �3.152;

CFI �0.95; TLI �0.96; IFI �0.97; NFI �0.95;

RMSEA �0.050. Perceived conflict between sport

and study was negatively correlated with all the other

variables considered, and the correlations between

the latent variables ranged between �0.31 and 0.74,

indicating that the participants distinguished

between them (see Figure 1).

Indi

cato

r 1

Indi

cato

r 2

Indi

cato

r 3

Indi

cato

r 4

Psychological need

satisfaction

Self-determined motivation (SDI)

Intention to practice sport

Perceived conflict

Sport dropout

Indi

cato

r 1

Indi

cato

r 2

Indi

cato

r 3

Indi

cato

r 4

Indi

cato

r 1

Indi

cato

r 2

Indi

cato

r 3

Indi

cato

r 4

Indi

cato

r 1

Indi

cato

r 2

Indi

cato

r 3

Indi

cato

r 4

Added in model B

.66 .73 .63 .72

.81 .85 .79 .85

.34 .51 .53 .66

.54 .55 .49 .47 .31 .36 .35 .49

.59 .73 .71 .81

.73 .74 .70 .69 .55 .60 .74 .70

.63***

.53***

.21***

– .56**

–.18***

.27***

.39

.61

.31

.07

Figure 2. Coefficients of the structural models (A & B).

Prospective study of sport dropout 7

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Step 2: Structural model. Having assessed the ade-

quacy of the factor structure, we examined the

hypothesized relations among the four latent dimen-

sions and the actual dropout behaviour. Fit indexes

for model A were acceptable: x2/df �4.14;

CFI �0.94; TLI �0.94; IFI �0.94; NFI �0.92;

RMSEA �0.06. Nevertheless modification indices

of the model illustrated the potential value of

incorporating a direct effect of psychological need

satisfaction on intention to practise sport. This

regression path was proposed based on the sugges-

tion that psychological need satisfaction not only

influences motivation, but also other factors such as

well-being, which could determine intention to

practise sport and persistence/dropout (Standage

et al., 2003, 2005, 2006). Consequently, the fit

indices for model B were improved: x2/df �2.93;

CFI �0.96; TLI �0.96; IFI �0.96; NFI �0.95;

RMSEA �0.05 compared to model A. Neverthe-

less, in order to be sure that model B had better fit to

the data than model A we performed a specification

search (defined as the modification of an initial model

to improve fit; Long, 1983). A specification search is

typically undertaken to detect and correct specifica-

tion errors between an initial theory-implied model

and the true population model for the variables

under study. The approach for conducting the

specification search was to examine model fit im-

provement when this new regression path was

introduced in model B. The fit function criteria

showed better fit to model B: chi-square (C), (model

A �476.55; model B �333.65), chi-square�df

(x2�df) (model A �361.55; model B �219.65),

Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) (model

A �246.55; model B �105.65), Browne-Cudeck

criterion (BCC) (model A �241.61; model

B �100.76), Bayes Information Criterion (BIC)

(model A �136.14; model B �0.000), chi-square

divided by the degrees of freedom (x2/df) (model

A �4.14; model B �2.93), and significance level

(P) (model A �0.000; model B �0.000).

Specifically, within model B, psychological need

satisfaction positively predicted SDI and intention to

practise sport (PB0.001). SDI negatively predicted

perceived conflict (P B 0.001), and positively pre-

dicted intention to practise sport. Perceived conflict

negatively predicted intention to practise sport

(PB0.001), and finally intention to practise sport

predicted dropout (PB0.001). Estimates for both

models are presented in Figure 2.

Analysis of invariance. Two multigroup analyses of

invariance were performed, one examining age and

the other gender. These investigated whether that

model B operated equivalently across groups, testing

the null hypothesis that there were no differences

between them. A lack of difference between the twoTab

leI.

Mea

ns,

stan

dard

dev

iati

on

s,F

,si

gn

ifica

nt

dif

fere

nce

san

def

fect

size

inte

rms

of

per

sist

ence

,gen

der

an

dage.

Per

sist

ent

Dro

pou

tG

irls

Boys

Age

1A

ge

2A

ge

3

mea

ns

mea

ns

Fh

2p

art

ial

1�

bm

ean

sm

ean

sF

h2

part

ial

1�

bm

ean

sm

ean

sm

ean

sF

h2

part

ial

1�

b

Nee

dsa

tisf

act

ion

5.5

80.9

15.1

80.9

111.2

1**

0.1

30.9

25.3

70.9

15.5

00.9

31.3

60.0

02

0.2

15.6

00.8

55.4

41.0

05.4

80.8

10.6

30.0

01

0.1

6

SD

I5.2

34.0

23.4

33.8

27.7

5*

0.0

07

0.7

04.5

73.9

54.7

94.0

70.0

30.0

00

0.0

76.0

83.6

84.6

14.1

34.2

23.9

35.7

0**

0.0

14

0.8

9

Per

ceiv

edco

nfl

ict

2.9

21.3

83.3

31.4

55.9

0*

0.0

07

0.6

83.0

31.3

23.0

31.4

30.4

60.0

01

0.1

02.7

51.3

23.0

71.3

83.1

31.5

01.6

40.0

04

0.3

5

Inte

nti

on

top

ract

ice

5.8

01.1

55.1

91.3

510.5

1**

0.0

12

0.9

05.5

21.3

55.6

71.2

01.0

20.0

01

0.1

75.9

31.0

45.6

01.2

65.5

31.2

73.7

2*

0.0

09

0.6

9

*PB

0.0

5

**PB

0.0

05.

***PB

0.0

01.

8 J.F. Guzman & K. Kingston

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models would be evidence of invariance (groups are

equivalent). Tests across ages assuming that model B

is unconstrained showed significant variance to

measurement weights (^x2�45.71; P�0.001),

measurement intercepts (^x2�136.60; PB0.001),

measurement residuals (^x2�145.89; PB0.001),

structural weights (^x2�171.15; PB0.001) and

structural residuals (^x2�274.80; PB0.001). The

same tests of invariance across gender also showed

significant variance to measurement weights

(^x2�23.62; P�0.035), measurement intercepts

(^x2�69.71; PB0.001), measurement residuals

(^x2�125.49; PB0.001), structural weights

(Dx2�71.37; PB0.001) and structural residuals

(^x2�101.33; PB0.001). Nevertheless, examina-

tion of the path coefficients between the uncon-

strained model and the constrained models

suggested no differences across both age categories

and gender. This indicates that the relationships

were universal for this particular sample (see Table

II).

Discussion

The primary aim of this research was to test a model,

grounded in SDT, to predict sport dropout. This

model represents a development to the previous

models studied in sport from two aspects. Firstly it

takes into account the role that other life domains

may play by introducing perceived conflict between

sport and study as a model variable (Boiche &

Sarrazin, 2007a, b). Secondly, a new regression

path was introduced from psychological need satis-

faction to intention to practise sport in an alternative

model B.

Results confirmed a significant inverse relation-

ship between self-determined motivation and per-

ceived conflict (between sport and study), and

between perceived conflict and intention to practise

sport. It could be concluded from these results that

the higher and more self-determined the motivation

of a person towards sport, the less conflict with study

he/she will perceive; further this leads to an asso-

ciated increased intention to persist in the activity.

Comparison of the fit indices between model A

and the alternative regression model indicated a

better fit for model B. This supported previous

research which suggested strong consequences of

psychological need satisfaction on the emotions,

cognitions and behaviour (Standage et al., 2003,

2005, 2006). Bearing this in mind, future studies

could explore if other variables such as well-being

could mediate this relationship. This new regression

path indicates that, although self-determined moti-

vation positively predicted the intention to practise

sport, the effects were lower in comparison with

studies that did not consider direct effects of

psychological need satisfaction on intention to prac-

tise sport (Sarrazin et al., 2002). This result suggests

that emotional variables related to psychological

need satisfaction could be more important than

self-determined motivation in predicting intention

to practise sport, and consequently sport dropout.

It is also important to consider that the relation-

ship between self-determined motivation and per-

ceived conflict was negative and significant.

This parallels results obtained by other studies

in different contexts: work�family (Senecal, Valler-

and, & Guay, 2001), education�interpersonal rela-

tionships (Senecal, Julien, & Guay, 2003) and

education�leisure conflict (Ratelle, Vallerand, Sene-

cal, & Provencher, 2005). Also the predictive rela-

tionship of perceived conflict with intention to

practise sport was significant. These findings give

support to the SDT hypotheses: with more self-

determined motivation different activities are per-

ceived as less incompatible, and consequently the

intention to continue practising them is higher (Deci

& Ryan, 2000).

The result of the analysis of invariance showed

that while measurement weights and intercepts,

together with structural weights and residuals, varied

Table II. b estimations and results of the regression path analyses of invariance.

Age Gender

Age 1 Age 2 Age 3 ^x2 (sig.) Boys Girls ^x2 (sig.)

Perceived need satisfaction 0 Intention 0.54*** 0.54*** 0.60*** 0.93 (ns) 0.58*** 0.33** 0.72 (ns)

Perceived need satisfaction 0 SDI 0.63*** 0.65*** 0.59*** 0.33 (ns) 0.62*** 0.68*** 0.60 (ns)

SDI 0 Intention of sport practice 0.21** 0.16* 0.19* 2.03 (ns) 0.21*** 0.26*** 0.52 (ns)

SDI 0 Perceived conflict �0.55*** �0.54*** �0.53*** 2.68 (ns) �0.55*** �0.55*** 0.33 (ns)

Perceived conflict 0 Intention �0.17 �0.22*** �0.13 2.78 (ns) �0.19*** �0.15 0.02 (ns)

Intention to practice sport 0 Dropout �0.30*** �0.29*** �0.20*** 0.10 (ns) �0.28*** �0.18* 2.62 (ns)

*PB0.05.

**PB0.005.

***PB0.001.

ns�non significant.

Dx2: difference of x2 between the unconstrained and constrained models.

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across age and gender, the regression path

coefficients were similar. These results fit with the

idea that although gender and age produce variations

in level of responses to the dependent variables, the

relationships proposed within the SDT are universal

to all cultures, across gender, and throughout all

developmental periods (Ryan & Deci, 2002), and

with studies that analysed it (Standage et al., 2005).

Further studies incorporating personal variables

such as personality or emotional intelligence could

be tested to establish if motivational variables could

determine behaviour in a different way as a function

of age or gender.

The secondary purpose of the study was to

examine age and gender differences in composite

variables of the SDT based model, namely: psycho-

logical need satisfaction, self-determined motivation,

perceived conflict between sport and study, and

intention to practise sport. MANOVA results

showed no differences related with gender. These

results are congruent with those reported by Atha-

nasios (2007) yet contrast with those that found

gender differences in self-determined motivation

(Carroll & Loumidis, 2001; Fortier et al., 1995;

Jaakkola & Sepponen, 1997; Vallerand & Bisonnette,

1992). The broad sample of the study and variety of

sports analysed could help to explain these results. In

a very specific sample and sport it may be easier to

find differences due to gender characteristics, as the

value or prestige that athletes from the same gender

assign to sport participation might be isolated; with a

large heterogeneous sample those differences would

tend to be compensated for. On the other hand

results showed a decrease in self-determined motiva-

tion and intention to practise sport associated with

age, giving support to previous studies (Athanasios,

2007; Digelidis & Papaioannou, 1999; Van Wersch,

Trew, & Turner, 1992), and contributing to under-

standing the massive dropout rates in adolescence

reported by several studies (Gould, 1987, Russell,

Allen & Wilson, 1996; Sallis & Patrick, 1996;

Wankel & Mummery, 1996).

Limits and applied implications

This study showed that the proposed model is

reliable at different ages and both genders, and helps

to understand variables related to sport dropout.

Nevertheless it has to be considered that a model is a

simplification of the reality, and other psychological

variables, such as self-esteem, intelligence and well-

being (Balaguer, Castillo, & Duda, 2008; Nunez,

Leon, Gonzalez, & Martın-Albo, 2011; Reinboth &

Duda, 2004, 2006) could be introduced to better

understand the process and to increase the explained

variance of dropout.

Although the model could be improved the results

of this study have implications for sport practice that

could help professors and coaches to prevent sport

dropout. The main contribution is that they should

create climates that promote their athletes’ need

satisfaction. Different studies show that mastery

climates and autonomy supportive climates

(Balaguer et al., 2008; Reinboth & Duda, 2006)

increase need satisfaction and consequently self-

determined motivation.

Conclusion

The major contribution of this study is that it

supports the relationships that have been proposed

based on SDT, and adds a variable to be incorpo-

rated (perceived conflict), and a direct effect of

psychological need satisfaction on intention to prac-

tise sport. Moreover the invariance of regression

weights between age and gender groups suggests that

the relationships proposed in the model are

universal.

Acknowledgements

This study was supported by a grant from the

Consell Valencia de l’Esport (CCEE2006-02)

(Spain).

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