What is the best form of democracy for Thailand?

School of Global StudiesThammasat University

Special lecture, TU120 Integrated Social Science

Dr. Michael H. NelsonGerman-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for

Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG) Faculty of Law, Thammasat University

23 April 2015

Approaches to answering the question

What is the best form of democracy for Thailand?• Democracy theory: normative and empirical

•Constitutionalism: institutional design issues (CDC)

This lecture mainly considers key features of Thailand’s political order, including a

historical perspective:• Socio-political structures

• Ideational resources

Course of political events (2001 to 2015)

Thaksin Shinawatra: The key source of political dynamics between 2001 (first election) and 2014/15 (second coup)

Pasuk/Baker, 2004/2009McCargo/Ukrist, 2005

Thaksin: Love

Thaksin: Hatred

Turning anti-Thaksin sentiment into a movement Chermsak PinthongFirst published in March 2004: Two editions in that month with a total print run of 30,000 copies.Second volume August 2004. Starting print run of 15,000.

Thaksin’s Electoral Triumph in February 2005

First Round of Yellow Shirt Protests against the“Thaksin Regime” (late 2005/2006)

First military coup against Thaksin, 19/09/2006

Second Round of Yellow Shirt Protests against the“Thaksin Regime” (2008)

Abhisit Vejjajiva government: Red Shirt Protests in 2009 and military crackdown May 2010

Yingluck Shinawatra wins 2011 elections - 265:159

Third Round of Yellow Shirt Protests against the“Thaksin Regime” (2013/2014)

Third Round of Yellow Shirt Protests against the“Thaksin Regime” (2013/2014)

Third Round of Yellow Shirt Protests against the“Thaksin Regime” (2013/2014)

Second military coup against Thaksin, 22/05/2015

Some initial orientations

Prayuth’s “12 Values”1. Love for nation, religion, and monarchy7. Correctly under-standing democracy that has the monarch as head of stateContradiction?Is something missing in the 12 values?

Political system options

Democracy

Oligarchy

Aristocracy

Monarchy

Meanings: all from old GreekDemocracy: Greek “demos” > people – “kratein” > rule, govern, exercise powerPolyarchy: Greek “polu-/polus” > much, many – “arkho” > rule, command, govern (“rule by many”)Oligarchy: Greek “oligos” > few Aristocracy: Greek “aristokratia” > rule of the best, from “aristos” > excellent – “kratos” > power Monarchy: Greek “monarchia” > “absolute rule”, from “monos” > alone

State-people relationships in ASEAN: 1

King Government

People

State

State-people relationships in ASEAN: 2

State apparatus•Military

• Civil servants

Government

People

State-people relationships in ASEAN: 3

Mass Organizations

Political Party Government

People

State

State-people relationships in ASEAN: 4

Elect State actions become legitimate

Political PartiesPoliticians

People

ParliamentGovernment

Prime MinisterPresident

State

Requirements of “large-scale democracy” (Dahl 2005)

1.Elected officials (decisions are made by officials elected by citizens—representative democracy)

2.Free, fair, and frequent elections (no coercion of the voters to vote in a particular way, and fair competition in the election campaigns)

3.Freedom of expression (political participation, control of the policy agenda > the “public sphere” as a market place of competing ideas)

4.Alternative sources of information (the mass media are not government-controlled)

5.Associational autonomy (citizens can freely pursue their political interests in political parties and interest groups)

6.Inclusive citizenship (universal suffrage, freedom to run for elective office)

Two partially overlapping streams of political contestation

1)Monarchy – military/civil bureaucracy – royalist-military alliance (plus Chinese business elite) – versus the people (toppling of Thanom 1973, coup in 1976, “Black May” 1992, coups in 2006 and 2014)

2)Emergence of significant elections, politicians, political parties, and voters – versus the reaction of the established power groups and social movements (starting with three elections in 1983, 1986, and 1988, then Thaksin 2001-2006, PAD protests 2005/2006 and 2008, UDD protests 2009/2010, PDRC protests 2013/2014)

First stream of political

contestation

Some key dates of Thai political history (1)

•1885 > Prince Prisadang submits memorandum to King Chulalongkorn: The “first political development plan of Thailand” (Chai-anan)•1912 > aborted revolt (kabot ro.so. 130): “the first great challenge to absolutism” (Kullada)•(around) 1926 > royal elite stalls their attempts at a democratic-parliamentary reform•1927 > founding of the “People’s Party” (khana

ratsadorn)•1932 > revolution replaces absolute with constitutional monarchy > “Democracy” (???)

Some key dates of Thai political history (2)

•1932 was not a popular uprising in which the king as superior of the state apparatus (both military and civil) is replaced by elected representatives and their government. > The state apparatus made itself independent from all supervision.

•After 1932: decline of the monarchy, especially under Phibun

•After Phibun’s removal from power in 1957 (Pote, Thanom, Sarit), a new phenomenon emerged:“Sarit and the USA oversaw a revival of the

monarchy…” (Baker/Pasuk)“new royalty-military partnership”

(Sng/Pimpraphai), incl. the Chinese business elite, and increasingly its middle class

Result of the “new royalty-military partnership” (Thitinan Phongsudhirak) “Westerners think of Thailand as a democracy, ruled by the will of the majority. In reality, our country is governed by an establishment

made up of the monarchy, military and bureaucracy.”

(New York Times, April 18, 2009)

This situation has long been ideologically supported by “NRM.” More recently, and increasingly, a competitor has emerged:

“Democracy.” >> Two models.

Competing models of the Thai political order (1)

Key components: Monarchy, bureaucracy > equal citizensHighest value: NRM > constitutionClaim to legitimacy: good of nation > popular sovereignty (collective) (individual)Political order: paternalism > democracyOperation: totalistic (control/unity) > pluralistic (liberty/diversity)Ideal of the people: obedient/conformist > independent minds

aphichonThe old power

elite (hierarchy, top-

down)

prachachonThe people(equality, bottom-up)

Dimensions

Competing models of the Thai political order (2)

    

The eternally independent and sovereign

Thai nation/country/kingdomPillar

1 Nation

Pillar 2Religion

Pillar 3Monarchy

Thai state apparatus: military – civil servants: Protectors of NRM

           

The diverse and pluralistic Thai people/citizensDemocracy, constitution, the representative system

“Nation, Religion, Monarchy” - Indoctrination

“Nation, Religion, Monarchy” - Constitution

Concluding Quotes (1) •“Thus, ‘paternalism’, ‘Nation, Religion, Monarchy (Chat, Sasana, Phramahakasat) on the one hand and ‘Constitution’ and ‘Democracy’ on the other jostle for position as the legitimizing symbol” (Prudhisan Jumbala, 1992)

•“In Thailand, the traditional rallying motto is ‘Nation, Religion, King’ and the emerging one is ‘Constitution and Democracy’. The success of Thai monarchy is maybe to show that the two can coexist. They may not be after all that contradictory.” (Gothom Ariya, “Thai Monarchy” [2004])

Concluding Quotes (2)The old power elite’s paternalist world view as expressed in the draft constitution of 2015:

มมมมม มม พพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพ (พ) พพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพ พพพพพ พพพพพพพพพพพพพพ พพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพ “Citizens have the duty to protect and safeguard Nation, Religion, Monarchy, and the democratic regime of government with the King as Head of State under this constitution” // “Form of democracy” //มมมมม มม พพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพ … พพพพพพพพ … พพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพพ พพพพพ พพพพพพพพพพพพพพ “National and local political leaders must be loyal towards Nation, Religion, Monarchy.”

“(the best) form of democracy”? “THAI-STYLE DEMOCRACY”

•“The Thai mindset reveals a strong preference for more tangible but extra-constitutional sources of power,” such as the military and the monarchy (Kobkua 2003)•“There are not three branches of the State (Executive, Legislature and Judiciary) but five, if we regard both the monarchy and the military as having powers of their own … extra-constitutional power” (Harding and Leyland 2011)•Conflicting “notions of legitimacy” (Dressel 2010)•“Dual polity” (Nelson 2012)•“monarchy-led parallel state,” with the military as its self-appointed “protector” (Chambers 2013)

Second stream of political contestation

What is the problem? (social construct) Elections / “Two Tales of Democracy” (Anek Laothamatas)

198319861988พ

1992

1994 (8th edition 2013)

(1993: “Sleeping Giant Awakens,” on the middle class)

What is the problem? (DDC, 1995)“The urban middle class dislikes vote buying and vote selling, because middle class people are economically and socially ‘independent’ and thus do not need to depend on anybody. This is different from people in rural areas, who lack basic economic means (roads, electricity, water sources, etc.) and are still poor. They need to ‘depend’ on patronage and support in getting their basic problems solved. Therefore, the electoral decisions of most rural people take on the form of ‘repaying’ their patrons. This makes the understanding of ‘democracy’ in rural areas different from that in urban areas. Moreover, this directly affects the development of democracy, because urban people have ‘more voice’ but ‘fewer votes,’ while rural people have ‘less voice’ but ‘more votes.’ Consequently, urban people have little acceptance for a House comprising mostly of members who are elected by rural people.”

What is the problem? (Prawase Wasi, 1995)1)Money politics2)Monopolization of politics by a small group of people

3)Good people have problems accessing politics

4)Corruption5)Parliamentary dictatorship

6)Chronic conflict and lack of stability

7)Lack of executive and legislative efficiency

8)Lack of political leadership

What is the problem?•1983 – Army’s position was Thai politics was unstable and had been “unable to develop into a true democracy lay in the system of free elections that have failed to produce capable, responsible and public-spirited representatives” (Prudhisan 1992)•2011 - People were “desperately seeking an alternative to the current brand of politics.” (Suthichai Yoon)•2011 – “[Thailand’s dysfunctional political] system is dominated by clones and families. … Ultimately, Thailand might need to consider whether the system of one man, one vote is best for us or not.” (Suvit Maesincee)•2015 – “Worst of all, national policies and market mechanisms aren’t based on building a more transparent and visionary future for the country but rather based on pursuing the narrow interests of cliques that happen to be in power through a ‘quasi-democratic’ electoral system.” (Suthichai Yoon)

What is the problem? > Vote selling by the “uneducated, unpolitical, poor rural population”

Model of the rural Thai

voter:Voter is poorพ

Gets moneyพ

Votes for the highest-paying vote

buyer

Solution: Buffaloes should have no right to vote

“the best form of democracy”?Three tier-/class system / “new-model democracy”

Anek Laothamatas (2006, 2007, 2009) (CDC member)“พพพพพพพพ” Mixed Regime

•พพพพพพพพ Monarchy•พพพพพพพพพพพพ Aristocracy (middle class, educated people, mass media, intellectuals, military, civil servants)•พพพพพพพพพพพ Democracy (ordinary people, the poor)Coup institutions 2014/2015: “Aristocracy” that aims to determine the “rules of the (political) game” and to give its members more power (“elite-led democracy”) in a number of constitutional bodies.

“Sleeping Giant Awakens” - second round: rural people

Movement against the coup of 2006; protests against Abhisit-government protests: 2009พ2010—protesting

for House dissolution and new elections

“Sleeping Giant Awakens” second round: rural people (or “new

citizens”)

VOTERS Localcandidates

Party lists

Political knowledge, interest, information behavior, opinions, preferences, and participation

Ideological determinants(e.g., Democrats/South, Isan)

Rational voting (e.g., Bangkok, other urban centers)

Relational voting•Family members, neighbors, friends, membership groups•Social bonds and obligations, seniority, barami, village groupings•Vote canvassers/hua khanaen, vote-buying, intimidation

Unattached/free, and oppositional voters

NATIONAL LEVELGovernment performancePolitical leadershipPolitical eventsPolitical parties

LOCAL LEVELMP candidates, their activities, and their informal local political groups (phuak)Influential political familiesLocal government authorities

Modernized model of the rural Thai voter:Voter has political

knowledge, is politically interested, observes

politics at the national level, has opinions and preferences,

wants participation and democracy, and rejects

military coups

It is not about “Goodbye Thailand,” but about “Welcome Thailand” – a pluralistic, inclusive

Thai political order that realizes egalitarian democracy in which all political forces respect the constitutional order.

พWhat could be the

institutional form of that democratic order?

พHow can we make those who

rejected inclusive constitutional democracy

(broadly the Yellow Shirts) to turn around and submit to “rules of the game” that apply to

all?