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United States co-operation with Russia in space and missile industries. What implications does it have for Ukraine?

By Vitalii Usenko @VitaliiU Jul 25, 2015

http://strataforum.org/united-states-co-operation-with-russia-in-space-and-missile-industries/

Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash), the Ukrainian Dnipropetrovsk industrial giant, one of the World leaders in space and missile industry during Soviet times is on the verge of bankruptcy. In August 2015, all accounts of Pivdenmash could be frozen. If this happens, this means no orders or contracts, not a single hope for survival, Ukrainian TV Channel ‘Inter’ reports.

“Pivdenmash” (Dnipropetrovsk Southern machine-building plant) has designed and produced missiles for many international space projects, including the Russian space program. Situation worsened when the Russian

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military aggression against Ukraine started. Naturally Russian orders decreased several times less (especially orders for servicing Inter-continental Ballistic Missiles SS-18 (‘Satan’) where the number of nuclear warheads constituted approximately half of Russian land nuclear potential). Russia has now problems with the missiles because of the Ukraine. Almost half of nuclear warheads (460 out of 1166) in Russian ground-based nuclear forces were on ICBM SS-18 ‘Satan’ (Russian name R-36M2 ‘Vodevoda’) as of January 2015.

Russia is set to replace the Ukrainian SS-18 ‘Satan’ ICBM with Russia’s RS-28 ‘Sarmat’ ICBM by 2020. First prototype has been scheduled to be ready until July 2015. Something went wrong; the prototype production delayed, and start of the tests postponed.

In this overview the major U.S., Russian and Ukrainian space projects will be explored and interdependence between U.S., Russia and Ukraine is some areas be demonstrated.

One of the largest joint U.S. – Russia – Ukraine project is Sea launch. Sea Launch is an international spacecraft launch service that uses a mobile maritime launch platform for equatorial launches of commercial payloads on specialized Zenit-3SL rockets. Sea Launch, California – a company owned by Russian RSC Energia (40%), Boeing Company, USA (25%), Aker Solutions, Norway (20%) and Ukrainian design bureau Pivdenne (15%). The Zenit 3SL, operated by Sea Launch was designed by Pivdenne (Yuzhnoye), and is constructed by Pidenmash (Yuzhmash).

Now project has difficult times. Boeing attempts to collect $356 million from its Russian and Ukrainian former partners in the Sea Launch commercial-launch company is an open-and-shut case of contract breach. A U.S. District Court is expected to rule early this fall on this case. As Space News reported, Chicago-based Boeing has consistently argued – and did so again in a July 22, 2015 filling with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission – that its former partners, ‘Pivdenne’ (‘Yuzhnoye’) and ‘Pivdenmash’ (‘YuzshMash’) of Ukraine and RSC Energia of Russia, signed documents committing them to a pro rata responsibility for the Sea Launch financing that was advanced by Boeing. Frustrated in its attempts at having the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce rule on the case as arbiter, Boeing in February 2013 turned to the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California.

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The Sea Launch SA successfully launched the EUTELSAT 3B satellite from its ocean-based launch platform Odyssey on May 27, 2014.

Even before Maidan and Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014 See Launch project had some issues between partners. The Russian Government thought about takeover of Sea Launch in February 2014. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said about this in February 19, 2014. As Zenit 3SL was integral part of the project which required closer ties with Ukrainian Pivdenne (Yuzhnoye) and Pidenmash (Yuzhmash), Dmitry Rogozin visited Dnipropetrovsk in December 2013 before the announcement of possibility of taking over Sea Launch project.

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Russian Delegation headed by Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin in design bureau Pivdenne (Yuzhnoye), Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine, December 3, 2013

As reported by Space News in July 24, 2015, “Boeing and its former partners Aker of Norway, which provided the converted oil platform Sea Launch uses to launch its Zenit 3SL rocket allege that Sea Launch collapsed under the weight of unsustainable debt.”

According to Pivdenne (Yuzhnoye) version mentioned in Space News article, “cost overruns during Sea Launch’s development, production and operations were largely due to Boeing which was 254 percent over the approved budget. The cost of Boeing’s launch-support team grew by 180 percent in the three years ending in 2007″. Pivdenne (Yuzhnoye) clarified that “when Sea Launch operations began, Boeing (the largest shareholder with 40 percent of the company), refused to allow Sea Launch to hire new people – labor that Yuzhnoye said could have been brought in at $20 an hour. Instead, Boeing insisted on loaning its own personnel to Sea Launch and billing the company $105 per hour.”

As a result of this dispute, Sea Launch entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings in the United States and has since been purchased by units of Energia, Energia Logistics and Energia Overseas, with its headquarters moved to Switzerland. If Boeing were to win a judgment against Energia and Yuzhnoye, Boeing may attempt to seize the Sea Launch command ship and launch platform.

It is interesting how Boeing responds to Russian proposal to use Russia’s Angara-A3 medium-class carrier rocket in the Sea Launch project instead of the Ukrainian Zenit 3SL rocket? Russians explore at least two options to adapt the floating Sea Launch platform and the Angara carrier rocket. New Russian heavy rocket from Angara family was test-launched from the Plesetsk space center on December 23, 2014.

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Test-launch of new Russian heavy rocket Angara-5 from the Plesetsk space center on December 23. Photo: Launch of Angara-A5 heavy booster. Russia’s Defence Ministry press service/TASS

Currently Angara’s launches are not cost-effective, approximately 30-40% higher than those of Proton-M. Aleksandr Medvedev, the general designer of the Khrunichev Center (the manufacturer of both Angara and Proton-M rockets) believes that by 2025 the costs of Angara launches will be 20% below those of the Proton. If this assumption come true we can only guess.

Another large project is Ukraine – Russia – U.S. Dnepr light missiles or launch vehicles (LV) project. The project was conducted in line with Russia and U.S. collaboration on nuclear disarmament in the framework of nuclear missiles conversion program, the Missile Technology Control Regime and the Budapest Agreement of 1994. Russia launched the Dnepr light missiles or launch vehicles (LV), designed by design bureau Pivdenne and whose design is based on the SS-18 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). A team of Russian and Ukrainian companies together with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) were involved in developing a commercial space launch system based on the technology of the SS-18 ICBMs with nuclear warheads being withdrawn from service During 1992-2003. The decision on Dnepr light missiles or launch vehicles (LV) project was preceded by a number of scientific research and preliminary design efforts, which resulted in a conclusion that the most promising and cost effective solution for payload orbital insertion would be a space launch system based on the SS-18 heavy ICBM with minimum modifications of the original missile.

To implement nuclear missiles disarmament project the International Space Company (ISC) Kosmotras (a Joint Stock Company) was established in 1997 under the Russian law. The company’s head office is located in Moscow, Russia. Primary area of ISC Kosmotras business operations is linked to implementation of the Russian Program for Elimination of the SS-18 Inter-continental Ballistic Missiles (ICMBs) that are being

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withdrawn from service and used in the Dnepr Space Launch System (SLS) for commercial orbital launches of payloads.

The Dnepr LV (RS-20) is intended for timely high-accurate injection of a single spacecraft (SC) or a group of various SCs with total mass of up to 3.7 tons into the near-earth orbits of 300-900 km altitude. Dnepr LV has a high power capability and reliability confirmed by 160 launches (including 8 launches under the Dnepr program).

The launch of KOMPSAT-5 satellite was successfully performed by Dnepr LV (RS-20 rocket) from Yasny Launch Base, Orenburg region, Russia, on August 22, 2013. Joint project of Russian Strategic Rocket

Forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense with the support of the Russian and Ukrainian companies, which are part of the ISC Kosmotras industrial team.

The Dnepr LV has at two points held the record for the most satellites orbited in a single launch: the April 2007 launch with 14 payloads held the record until 20 November 2013, when an American Minotaur I (expendable launch system derived from the Minuteman II missile) placed 29 satellites and two experiment packages into orbit. The next day a Dnepr LV retook the record, placing 32 satellites and an experiment package bolted to the upper stage into low Earth orbit. This record was broken by an Antares launch in January 2014 which carried 34 spacecraft. Ukrainian enterprises Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash) and Pivdenne (Yuzhnoye), developed and manufactured the first stage of the Antares rocket for U.S. company Orbital Science Corporation (OSC).

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Form recent successful launches of in the framework of Dnepr LV project was a successful launch of Dnepr LV with Korean satellite KompSat-3A executed from Yasny Launch Base (Orenburg region, Russia) on March 25, 2015. Korean KompSat-3A spacecraft was developed by Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI). KOMPSAT-3A are South Korea Earth Observation Satellites intended for remote sensing and used in a variety of applications such as Geographical Information Systems, and environmental, agricultural and oceanographic monitoring as well as urban planning, resource management and disaster relief. Mass of the satellite is equal to 1112 kg.

The previous Dnepr launch was performed in November 2014 to deliver the Japanese ASNARO remote sensing satellite and four mini-satellites to orbit. Joint crews of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces and the Russian-Ukrainian-Kazakh company Kosmotrans carried out the launch.

The launch of KOMPSAT-5 satellite was successfully performed by Dnepr LV (RS-20 rocket) from Yasny Launch Base, Orenburg region, Russia, on March 25, 2015. Joint project of Russian Strategic Rocket

Forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense with the support of the Russian and Ukrainian companies, which are part of the ISC Kosmotras industrial team.

The future of the project is uncertain as Russia and US ended collaboration on nuclear disarmament and because of ongoing supported by Russia conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has ordered the end of all military cooperation between Ukraine and Russia in June 2014, and it was unclear to what extent the ban will affect the Dnepr program, which is not military, but is based on military technology. On May 21, 2105 Ukraine’s parliament voted on a bill to suspend military co-operation with Russia, on June 8, 2015 President Petro Poroshenko signed the bill. Perhaps there is a possibility that project can continue with modifications as this is project is not military co-operation.

Next large U.S. – Russia – Ukraine project is Orbital Sciences Commercial Resupply Launch project. Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash) Pivdenne (Yuzhnoye) co-operation with Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC), after merger Orbital OTK, will likely continue. The Ukrainian Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash) and Pivdenne (Yuzhnoye) enterprises, which developed and manufactured the first stage of the Antares rocket, had a long-term

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agreement with the American company Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC), after merger Orbital OTK. The company has a $1.9 billion Commercial Resupply Services contract with NASA that originally covered eight resupply flights through the end of 2016.

In April 2013, Orbital Science Corporation praised cooperation with Ukraine in the creation of the new Antares medium-class space launch vehicle, built for delivering cargo to the International Space Station (ISS), and is confident there are “good prospects for the development of a partnership on the project,” the company’s management said. Future of cooperation looked promising after successful launch of the Antares rocket took place from the Regional NASA Spaceport at Wallops Island (Virginia) on July 13, 2014. Antares delivered the Cygnus cargo module to the International Space Station (ISS). Cygnus carried more than 1.6 tons of scientific equipment, supplies and ISS life support.

Successful launch of the Antares rocket on July 13, 2014

But situation somewhat changed after the Antares October 28, 2015 launch failure. Orbital Sciences Corporastion (Orbital ATK after merger) on December 16, 2014 confirmed that it has contracted with Russia’s Energomash to provide RD-181 engines to power the first stage of Orbital’s Antares rocket, replacing the engine that Orbital suspects was the origin of Antares’ October 28, 2015 failure. ‘Spacelift Now’ has posted the news on January 22, 2015 that Orbital Sciences Corporation (Orbital ATK after merger) and Russian RSC Energia have signed a contract worth approximately $1 billion for up to 60 Russian-made RD-181 rocket engines to power the redesigned first stage of the commercial Antares launcher.

The October launch failure caused an estimated $20 million in damage to the launch pad, which is owned and operated by the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport run by the state of Virginia. Russian-made RD-181 will replace aging AJ26 engines that, at least initially, appeared to be the cause of a catastrophic launch failure

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about 15 seconds. The deal includes a firm agreement for 20 engines — enough to cover 10 Antares launches — with the first two units due for delivery to Orbital Sciences in June 2015, according to a statement released by Moscow-based RSC Energia. Interesting fact is that AJ26 engines are modified by Aerojet versions of NK-33 and NK-43 Soviet rocket engines. These engines designed and built in the late 1960s and early 1970s by the Soviet Kuznetsov Design Bureau which located in Samara, Russia.

An Orbital Sciences Corpopration Antares rocket exploded seconds after liftoff from Wallops Island, Virginia. October 28, 2014

As Spacelift Now reported International Space Station (ISS) resupply missions launched from Virginia’s Eastern Shore are set to resume in March 2016, after Orbital ATK integrates newly-built rocket engines into the Ukrainian-made booster stage of the company’s commercial Antares rocket and puts it through an on-pad test firing in January 2016. To accomplish its contractual commitment in seven flights till March 2016, Orbital ATK will use the extra lifting capability of ULA’s (United Launch Alliance) Atlas 5 rocket.

United Launch Alliance (ULA) is a joint venture of Lockheed Martin Space Systems and Boeing Defense, Space & Security. On May 2, 2005, The Boeing Company and the Lockheed Martin Corporation announced their intention to form a joint venture, on October 3, 2006 FTC (Federal Trade Commission) gave clearance to United Launch Alliance and in December 2006ULA was formed. The purpose of the joint venture is combining the production, engineering, test and launch operations associated with U.S. government launches of Boeing Delta and Lockheed Martin Atlas rockets.

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Launch of the Atlas V/Centaur carrying NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, or LRO, and NASA’s Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite, known as LCROSS. Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Kennedy Space Center. Photo: NASA or National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko visited the Pivdenne Design Bureau and the Machine-Building Plant Pivdenmash during a working trip to Dnipropetrovsk on October 21, 2014.

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Petro Poroshenko during the visit in Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash), October 21, 2014

The President held a meeting on the problems, prospects and development of the space industry. General Director of the Pivdenne [Yuzhnoye] Design Bureau Oleksandr Dehtiariov presented projects in the aerospace, defense-industrial and transport spheres, particularly on participation in the international projects Sea Launch and Land Launch, the joint Ukrainian-Brazilian project Cyclone-4, the development of the rocket Antares and the Earth remote sensing (ERS) satellite system Sich.

Disappointing news about Cyclone-4 project came from Brazil in April 2015. Cyclone-4 is a Ukrainian carrier rocket, which has been developed by Design Bureau ‘Pivdenne’ (‘Yuzhnoye’) and manufactured by ‘Pivdenmash’ (‘Yuzhmash’) machine – building plant for commercial satellite launches.

The Ukrainian-Brazilian Cyclone-4 project project planned to provide for the development of a new Cyclone-4 space carrier vehicle in Ukraine, as well as construction of the ground complex for its launches at Alcantara Launch Center in Brazil. The project was aimed at provision of spacecraft launch services for the benefit of Ukrainian and Brazilian space programs, as well as for third countries on a commercial basis. Alcantara Cyclone Space (ACS), a binational Ukraine-Brazil company, was founded in December 2007. Alcantara Cyclone Space (ACS) involved the development and operation of the Launch Complex and launching the Ukrainian Cyclone-4 Launch Vehicle from the Alcantara Launch Center in Brazil to provide space launch services for the Governments of Brazil and Ukraine, as well as for commercial customers. The Alcantara Launch Center located on Brazil’s Atlantic coast outside of Sao Luis.

Ukraine’s Cyclone-4 rocket

But, unfortunately plans are not going to be implemented. The Brazilian government was ending a decade-long project to operate Ukraine’s Cyclone-4 rocket from Brazilian territory following a government review

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that found too many open questions about its cost and future market success, the deputy chief of the Brazilian Space Agency (AEB) said.

During the visit in October 2014, the President touched upon prospects for cooperation with other countries, particularly the Republic of Kazakhstan, where the Baikonur Cosmodrome, the world’s largest operational space launch facility, is located.

Petro Poroshenko also visited the Machine-Building Plant Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash), which is affiliated with Pivdenne Design Bureau. The President stated that Pivdenmash products would be included in the 2015 state defense order. “I am giving instructions to amend the state defense order and initiate funding of production of precision weapons, cruise missiles and tactical weapons and systems,” the President said while in Dnipropetrovsk.

The President noted that state defense orders for precision weapons were terminated in 2009. “We must be confident that our army, our Armed Forces and their equipment meet the highest world standards,” he said. While inspecting production capacities of the plant and communicating with its workers, the Head of State expressed his belief that Ukraine should regain the status of a country with a strong space program, noting, “The state can be proud of its achievements developed by Pivdenmash.” After visiting the plant, the President said that he is convinced that there are grounds for such confidence.

Petro Poroshenko visit in Pivdenne, October 21, 2014

KB Pivdenne [“Yuzhoye”] (Design Bureau South) together with the Pivdenmash [Yuzhmash], have developed a new tactical missile complex Grom-2 (Thunder-2). Grom-2 (Thunder-2) is a new tactical missile system developed for the Ukrainian armed forces. It uses a cruise missile developed on the basis of Korshun (Kite) to

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destroy ground targets. This system forms the basis for other operational missiles with a longer range. In fact, the complex is far better and advanced than its Russian counterpart, the Iskander (Nato designation SS-26 Stone). Despite little funding in 2009-2013, Pivdenne has developed fundamental solutions to improve the technical characteristics of Grom-2 (Thunder-2) targeting the export market and military-technical cooperation. Further development of the ground forces missile system will allow a unified chain of command to operate independently on the tactical level, but incorporated into a network sharing information from existing resources as well as newly introduced sources, like unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV, drones) and observation satellite data, thus authorizing strikes at various ranges from a single launcher.

Grom-2 (Thunder-2), a new tactical missile system

The Ukraine Mobile Ballistic Missile System Korshun-2 [Kite-2] was presented to the public in Kyiv at the XI International Arms & Security Trade Fair in 2014.

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Ukraine Mobile Ballistic Missile System Korshun-2 [Kite-2]Pivdenmash proposed to produce not only missiles and missiles systems, but also a mobile army barracks, small arms, installing cartridge production line. No response from government followed. It should be pointed out that terrorists of so-called “Luhansk People’s Republic” seized cartridge plant which was the only thing in the territory of Ukraine where produce cartridges for Makarov’s gun. Later on Russian terrorist troops looted the plant.

Unfortunately state orders promised Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash) by the Ukrainian President and Ukrainian government were not provided.

As was reported by UNIAN on September 25, 2014, Pivdenmash wanted to help NASA to replace Russian spacecrafts with American ones by participating in joint US-Ukraine projects. Washington planned by 2017 to send astronauts to the International Space Station without the help of Russia. The State Machine-Building Plant Pivdenmash hopes to participate in the new NASA program Space Taxi to deliver cargo to the International Space Station (ISS), using American crafts instead of Russian. The proposal was made by the company’s director Sergei Voight at the international aerospace forum “Ukraine’s space industry: essential for economic modernization.” According to Voight, both enterprises can benefit from a program that satisfies the requirements of NASA. “We can offer the development of launch vehicles, staging of missiles and rockets, engines, case parts and components, which we are currently able to do not worse than our American colleagues,” said Voight. He stated that proposals had been sent to the US government. No response to this proposal known to the media is available.

A U.S. Air Force would like to end dependence on Russian rocket engines. But unfortunately just over a month ago, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket exploded just over two minutes into takeoff. SpaceX responded by postponing its upcoming launches. The SpaceX mishap was the third loss of a cargo ship headed to the space station in the last year. A cargo rocket built by the Orbital Sciences Corporation exploded just after liftoff from a launching pad in Virginia in October 2014.

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The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket broke apart after launch on June 28, 2015 Credit John Raoux/Associated Press

A Russian supply rocket successfully launched to the international space station (ISS) the week after the SpaceX failure, and the astronauts on the space station have sufficient supplies for months. The ProgressM-28M lifted off smoothly from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on July 3, 2015, with the Soyuz-U capsule atop it. The Soyuz-U is carrying more than 5,200 pounds of supplies to the ISS.

It seems that any replacement by US the Russian rocket engine used to launch U.S. military satellites is still years away, officials acknowledged. It seems that the United States, EU and Russia are interdependent and interlinked in the space industry, and appear unlikely to end their cooperation till 2020. The questions is will Ukraine be scarified in these projects by United States and EU in favor of Russia.

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The ProgressM-28M launch. Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. July 3, 2015

Space market is very competitive. United Launch Alliance Delta 4 rocket project proved to be successful. As reported by Space News, on July 23, 2015 the U.S. Air Force launched the seventh of its Wideband Global Satcom (WGS) satellites from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida, aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta 4 rocket. The WGS satellites, built by Boeing Network & Space Systems of El Segundo, California, are the backbone of the Air Force’s communications fleet that provides services in the X- and Ka-bands. Seven of a planned 10 satellites are now in orbit.

A Delta 4 rocket from United Launch Alliance lifts the seventh WGS satellite into orbit for the U.S. Air Force

on July 23, 2015

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Pivdenne Design Bureau (Dnipropetrovsk) is working on a plan to establish cooperation with the United States in building rocket engines, Pivdenne CEO and Chief Designer Oleksandr Dehtiarev has said. The Ukrainian developer is ready to become a partner in the project initiated by the U.S. government to build rocket engines to replace the Russian built RD-180 used in American carrier rockets. He said that over the past five years, Pivdenne has been developing liquid-propellant rocket engines for the first stages of carrier rockets that could be effectively used in U.S. carrier rockets. No details are available about feasibility and possible time lines of this project in mass-media at the moment.

Protest rally of Pivdenmsah employees caused by delays in payment of their salary. February 24, 2015

Meanwhile, if Kyiv will not take urgent measures the accounts of Pivdenmash could be frozen in one month time and court will start bankruptcy procedure. The employees of Pivdenmash appealed to government to take urgent measures to ensure the provision of a state order. “It’s been more than six months, and there are still no government orders”, – stated in the appeal. Protests of Pivdenmsah employees caused by delays in payment of their salaries started in February 24, 2015. Prime-Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk promised that all half-year arrears in salaries (UAH 90 million approx. $ 4 milion) would be covered. He has also promised that Pivdenmash will get a defense order on UAH 400 – 500 million (approx. $18 – $23 million) during six months time. It seems that these promises were not kept.

If the Pivdenmash bankruptcy happens it could forever put an end to all opportunities for Ukraine to be among space powers. Or to resolve the issue, after the forceful imposing on Ukraine the full implementation of Minsk agreement by USA and Russia are going to save Ukrainian defense industry as was proposed in the article ‘Saving Ukraine’s Defense Industry‘ by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace? If Obama and Putin

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reached mutual understanding with Putin on Iran deal, could they find common solution here too? Pivdenne (Yuzhnoye) and Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash) among other things were seriously affected as both Pivdenne (Yuzhnoye) and Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash) in the framework of US – Russia Arms Control program, the Missile Technology Control Regime and Budapest memorandum 1994 which made Ukrainian enterprises less competitive and more vulnerable due to have widening ties with Russian space and missile industry.

A conclusion made by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in July 2014 could be still valid (with some reservations): “Ukraine needs help. The United States and Russia can and should lead international efforts to save Ukraine’s defense industry. As difficult as this task may seem at present, the alternatives are worse. With so much at stake, if Washington and Moscow cannot find a way to work together now to address this urgent problem, the United States and Europe should spearhead the process toward developing a solution. Otherwise, the international community may face an even more dire situation in years to come.”

It seems that Russia’s understanding how to save Ukrainian defense industry is “slightly” different. As Ukraine is not integrated with the US and EU industries the brain drain of key specialists together with technologies in Russia is possible. Putin has been trying to lure Ukraine’s defense industry specialists to Russia since April 2014 (may be even earlier).

Putin at a meeting with members of the legislature of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, Petrozavodsk, Russia, April 28, 2014

The Russian President said that the Russian government will provide funding for the relocation of Ukraine defense industry specialists to the enterprises of the Russian military industrial complex. Putin said this at a meeting with members of the legislature of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. The Russian president’s strategy, it seems, is to try to move the Ukrainian defense industry to Russia.

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“As for the possibility of moving specialists from Ukraine to Russia, if they are willing we will help you [Russian regional authorities] to accommodate them,” Putin said in reply to the questions of the member of the Voronezh Regional Duma Vladimir Pliushchenko at the meeting on April 28, 2014.

Another Russian was to “save” Ukrainian defense industry was demonstrated by relocating to Russia Ukrainian defense enterprised located in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russia’s army and Russian backed terrorists removed whole factories from areas under their occupation. Russian media has confirmed that since August 2014 Russian “humanitarian convoys” have been robbing and removing Ukrainian enterprises located in a territory controlled by Russian-backed terrorists supported by Russian troops, as well as taking Ukrainian specialists with them.

Transfer of technologies and skills from ‘Pivdenne’ (‘Yuzhnoye’) and ‘Pivdenmash’ (‘Yuzhmash’) has strategic importance to Russia in one more system which poses considerable threat to Western civilization. This system was presented on the Russia One channel on March 16, 2014 and is named Perimeter, known in the US as Dead Hand. The system was reported on by Nicholas Thompson in 2009. The core of Perimeter is that even if all of its operators are killed in an enemy attack, the automatic system will launch all Russian strategic missiles in the right direction from shafts and submarines. The Perimeter system is activated once all command points of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces are destroyed. Currently, it is supposed that not all components of the system are operational and Russia is trying its best to make it fully operational.

Going back in history: the government of the USSR commissioned the above-mentioned Dnipropetrovsk based Pivdenne (one of the largest producers of strategic ballistic missiles in the USSR) to develop this system in 1974.

Many institutions participated in the development of Perimeter, such as the R&D production facility Strela in Orenburg, Russia; the All-Russian R&D Institute of Experimental Physics; the Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute in Ukraine, and many others. Pivdenne is of strategic interest to Russia in Eastern Ukraine.

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How the Russian Perimeter, or Dead Hand System is supposed to work

General speculation from insiders alleges that the system remains in use in post-Soviet Russia. An example of failsafe deterrence, it can automatically trigger the launch of Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) if a sufficient number of parameters indicating a nuclear strike, as measured by seismic, light, radioactivity, and pressure sensors, are met.

The major components of the system are as follows:

• System command posts, which contain necessary control equipment and communications; • Command missiles, among them the 15A11, one of the most well-known missiles; • Communication devices providing commands and code exchanges with command missiles; • An autonomous control and command system–the most mythical component, the key element of the

Doomsday; • Machine, a complex system equipped with number of communication devices and sensors monitoring

the combat environment (not confirmed to be operational at this time)

Perimeter, in essence, was designed to be an alternative command system for all military bodies with nuclear warheads at their disposal.

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15A11 command missile of the Perimeter System, design bureau Pivdenne (Yuzhnoye), Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine, Soviet era

Command missile complex 15P011, with missile 15А11, was in combat readiness until mid-1995. Command missile complex 15P011 was withdrawn from service in accordance with the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. Known as START I, it was a bilateral treaty between the USSR and the US signed on July 31, 1991, and which took effect on December 5, 1994.

The treaty barred its signatories from deploying more than 6,000 nuclear warheads atop a total of 1,600 ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and bombers. START I expired on December 5, 2009. On April 8, 2010, US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed a new START treaty in Prague. Following ratification by the US Senate and the Federal Assembly of Russia, it took effect on January 26, 2011.

In 2011, the commander of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, Sergey Karakaev, described in an interview with a Russian tabloid the operational state of Perimeter’s assessment and communication systems, but these data are not confirmed and are considered to be a stretch by some military experts. That is, it is not currently confirmed that Perimeter is fully functional.

As a conclusion it should be pointed out that the issue of ‘Pivdenne’ (‘Yuzhnoye’) and ‘Pivdenmash’ (‘Yuzhmash’) is not a simple space competition. It resolution requires participation of international community, first of all of United States, Nato and European Union as arms control program, the missile technology control regime and non-proliferation treaties are at stake. Ukraine really needs help from international community to cope with these challenges.

Written by: Dr. Vitalii Usenko, MD, MBA, expert of the Center of Military-Political Studies in the sphere of psychology of communications and Dmytro Usenko, graduate of Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto

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Last update: July 28, 2015 | 21:20 Kyiv time

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