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November 2020

Global OverviewNOVEMBER 2020

CRISISWATCH

Tracking ConflictWorldwideCrisisWatch is our global con�ict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developmentsin over 80 con�icts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks ofescalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Outlook for This MonthDecember 2020

CONFLICT RISK ALERTS

Central African Republic, Ethiopia,

Yemen, Western Sahara

RESOLUTIONOPPORTUNITIES

None

Trends for Last MonthNovember 2020

DETERIORATEDSITUATIONS

Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia,

Uganda, Mozambique, Kashmir,

Guatemala, Peru, Western Sahara

IMPROVED SITUATIONS

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

The latest edition of Crisis Group’s monthly con�ict tracker highlights deteriorations in November innine countries and con�ict areas, as well as an improved situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.

In Kashmir, tensions escalated sharply amid deadly incidents along the Line of Control dividingPakistani- and Indian-administered Kashmir, resulting in India’s highest monthly military casualty tollsince April.

In Mozambique, Islamist militants staged a large-scale offensive in the far north, seizing their seconddistrict capital since August and killing scores.

Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a Russian-brokered cease�re to end six weeks of deadly hostilities inNagorno-Karabakh.

Looking ahead to December, CrisisWatch warns of four con�ict risks.

In Yemen, Washington’s likely designation of the Huthis as a terrorist organisation could triggerretaliatory attacks and hamper humanitarian operations as the UN warns of looming famine.

In Western Sahara, the 1991 cease�re between Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Frontcollapsed, sparking concerns that the long-frozen con�ict could reignite.

Tensions increased in the Central African Republic over former President Bozizé’s presidentialcandidacy, raising risks of violence around the vote scheduled for 27 December.

A violent con�ict that erupted in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, killing thousands and prompting more than43,000 refugees to �ee into eastern Sudan, could continue. Although federal forces captured Tigray’sregional capital and announced an end to military operations, Tigray leaders vowed to continue �ghting.

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PRESIDENT'S TAKE

Why Crisis Group Calls for Inclusive Dialogue in Ethiopia

In his introduction to this month’s edition of CrisisWatch, our President Robert Malley re�ects on our�eld analysts’ work, Crisis Group’s mandate, and why we call for inclusive dialogue in Ethiopia.

Continue reading

Latest Updates

Africa

Nile Waters

Tripartite negotiations on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) remained stalled. AfricanUnion (AU)-sponsored talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on �lling and operation of GERD 4 Novreached stalemate after Egypt objected to Sudan’s proposal to give greater role to AU experts to narrowgaps between parties and propose compromises. Sudan 21 Nov boycotted new round of talks, reiteratingcall for new method of negotiation. Ethiopian govt 26 Nov announced GERD expected to begingenerating power in June 2021.

NOVEMBER 2020

Burkina Faso

President Kaboré won re-election, and jihadists launched deadly attack on army in north.Presidential and legislative elections held 22 Nov without major security incidents. Opposition partiesnext day however said electoral process was “riddled with fraud” and threatened “not to accept results”.Electoral commission 26 Nov announced preliminary presidential election results, giving incumbentPresident Kaboré �rst-round victory with 57.87% of vote. Prominent opposition candidate ZéphirinDiabré 27 Nov acknowledged Kaboré’s win. Electoral commission overnight 28-29 Nov announced

NOVEMBER 2020

https://www.crisisgroup.org/content/why-crisis-group-calls-inclusive-dialogue-ethiopia

https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/crisiswatch-december-alerts-and-november-trends-2020

https://www.crisisgroup.org/content/why-crisis-group-calls-inclusive-dialogue-ethiopia



legislative elections results, giving ruling party 56 of 127 seats. Earlier in month, Constitutional Council1 Nov called off elections in 1,645 sectors or villages, disenfranchising 5.79% of electorate; body citedmajor risk of jihadist attacks and lack of public services in these areas. Electoral commission 10 Novcalled on all candidates to adhere to security protocols, after dividing national territory into threesectors according to jihadist threat levels. Meanwhile, jihadist attacks persisted in northern regions, withIslamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) gaining ground in several areas. In Sahel region, suspectedISGS combatants 2 Nov stormed artisanal mining site near Madouji town, Soum province, killing eight; 8Nov killed eight civilians in Diobbou village and legislative elections candidate’s chauffeur nearGoudoubo locality, both Seno province. In deadliest attack on army since Aug 2019, jihadists 11 Novkilled 13 soldiers and one gendarme in ambush near Tin-Akoff, Oudalan province. In following days,both al-Qaeda and Islamic State claimed responsibility for attack, highlighting competition betweengroups’ local franchises. Security forces faced new accusations of abuses of civilians, notably in Oudalanprovince: soldiers and volunteer �ghters 6 Nov raided Kouna and Deibanga towns, reportedly killingseveral ethnic Fulani; same day reportedly killed ten ethnic Tuareg in Tin-Samane area.

Q&A: Burkina Faso et Niger : des élections à l’épreuve des insurrections ?

Mali

Interim authorities faced growing opposition while inter-communal violence and jihadist activitycontinued in centre. Rifts widened between military junta’s governing body, National Committee forthe Salvation of the People (CNSP), on one hand, and political parties, civil society and trade unions, onthe other, over perceived lack of power sharing. President Bah N’Daw 9 Nov issued decrees on formationof interim legislative body National Transitional Council (CNT), giving VP and CNSP leader Assimi Goïtaauthority to appoint CNT members and outlining allocation of 121 seats to different forces, among whichCNSP will be best represented with 22 seats. Coalition of opposition and civil society groups M5-RFP,which led uprising against former President Keïta, 11 Nov said “unacceptable” decrees revealedtransition’s “purely military” nature; former PM Moussa Mara’s Yelema party, along with other politicalforces, same day said they would boycott CNT. Govt 25 Nov appointed senior military �gures asgovernors of several regions, bringing total of regions governed by military or police of�cers to 13 of 20.Meanwhile, inter-communal violence erupted in Ségou region in centre after suspected jihadists stormedFarabougou village in Oct. Ethnic Bambara 31 Oct-2 Nov clashed with suspected jihadists and ethnicFulani in several villages around Farabougou; at least four dead, including one soldier. Jihadist and inter-communal violence continued in neighbouring Mopti region. Group to Support Islam and Muslims(JNIM) 3 Nov attacked bus on Parou-Songobia axis, Bandiagara district, killing eight. Dogon militiamen12 Nov killed three Fulani in ambush near Mandio locality, Mopti district. Unidenti�ed assailants 23-24Nov attacked Minimakanda village, Bankass district, killing at least four in apparent retaliation forjihadist attacks there in Oct. Meanwhile, also in Mopti, French Operation Barkhane reportedly killed 50Ansarul Islam-af�liated insurgents in Pogol-N’Daki area, Douentza district 30 Oct-1 Nov and 30 othersuspected jihadists in Niaki area, Koro district 12 Nov. French govt 13 Nov said ground and air operation10 Nov killed senior JNIM commander Bah ag Moussa in Ménaka region in east. JNIM 30 Nov claimed

NOVEMBER 2020

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/qa

https://www.crisisgroup.org/fr/africa/sahel/burkina-faso/burkina-faso-et-niger-des-elections-lepreuve-des-insurrections



series of rocket attacks upon French military outposts in Gao, Kidal (both north) and Ménaka regionssame day.

REPORT: Enrayer la communautarisation de la violence au centre du Mali

Niger

Political tensions increased ahead of 27 Dec presidential election and jihadist violence persistedin south west. Tens of thousands of supporters of Hama Amadou, main opposition candidate inforthcoming presidential election, 7 Nov rallied in football stadium in capital Niamey, in show of force todemonstrate candidate’s ability to mobilise voters. Following months of rumors that ruling-partycandidate Mohamed Bazoum was born abroad, sparking doubts about his eligibility, opposition membersin Diffa region 11 Nov �led complaint challenging legality of his certi�cate of nationality. ConstitutionalCourt 13 Nov cleared 30 of 41 candidates to run for president, including Bazoum, but disquali�edAmadou, citing his 2017 one-year prison sentence. In following days, Amadou’s supporters adoptedbelligerent tone on social media. Meanwhile, security situation deteriorated in Tillabery region in southwest. Suspected jihadists 6 Nov killed civilian and looted shops in Komane village north of Torodicommune; suspected Islamic State in West Africa Province combatants 10-16 Nov kidnapped at least fourcivilians in Ouallam and Abala communes. Kidnappings decreased in Diffa region in south east; total oftwo cases reported throughout month.

Q&A: Burkina Faso et Niger : des élections à l’épreuve des insurrections ?

NOVEMBER 2020

Burundi

Govt continued crackdown on dissent and ordered UN to close its special envoy’s of�ce incountry. Monitoring from human rights groups revealed decrease in cases of arbitrary arrests duringmonth, with ten in Nov compared to 98 in Oct. Ruling party CNDD-FDD’s youth wing Imbonerakurecontinued to pose threats to civilian population, notably killing child in Mutimbuizi commune, Bubanzaprovince 2 Nov. President Ndayishimiye 16 Nov called on Imbonerakure to step up efforts to track down“enemies” inside country. Residents in Cibitoke province mid-Nov said they had recovered around 20lifeless bodies near Rusizi river since Oct, accused National Intelligence Service of bearing responsibility.Govt 11-14 Nov auctioned off properties of 30 former govt of�cials suspected of involvement in 2015coup attempt against former President Nkurunziza, despite lack of formal judicial investigation;

NOVEMBER 2020

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/report

https://www.crisisgroup.org/fr/africa/sahel/mali/293-enrayer-la-communautarisation-de-la-violence-au-centre-du-mali


https://www.crisisgroup.org/fr/africa/sahel/burkina-faso/burkina-faso-et-niger-des-elections-lepreuve-des-insurrections



authorities in recent weeks also arrested three current and former intelligence service agents oversuspicion of involvement in coup attempt. Govt 26 Oct-6 Nov conducted civil servant census, requiringinformation about ethnicity. Govt 10 Nov praised “record of repatriation” of Burundian refugees fromTanzania, DRC and Rwanda in recent days. Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie 4 Nov liftedsanctions against Burundi in place since 2015, reinstating country as full member. After UN delegation’svisit to Burundi in Sept concluded rights abuses continued under Ndayishimiye, UN Sec-Gen Guterres 3Nov recommended mandate extension of Of�ce of Special Envoy for Burundi until end of 2021. Govt 17Nov however said it will discontinue of�ce’s accreditation 31 Dec 2020, arguing that UN presence seeksto “maintain Burundi in a psychosis of an arti�cial crisis cunningly orchestrated by foreign actors”.

Cameroon

Anglophone separatists continued to target schools in North West and South West regions, whilejihadist violence persisted in Far North. In North West, Anglophone separatists kidnapped dozens,including six teachers and ten students in Bui division’s capital Kumbo 3 Nov, and six students in Boyodivision’s capital Fundong next day; most victims were quickly released. Separatists 5 Nov kidnappedprominent Cardinal Tumi and traditional chief of Nso people, alongside 11 others in Bui division, nextday released Tumi and 10 Nov released Nso chief. Soldiers 8 Nov killed two civilians in Akum localitynear regional capital Bamenda, and two others in Ndu town, Donga-Mantung division. In continuedclashes with army, suspected separatists 11 and 18 Nov reportedly killed four soldiers in Bamenda andMbiame town, Bui division. In South West, suspected separatists 4 Nov assaulted students and teachersin Limbe city, Fako division, later burnt school classroom, and 8 Nov killed traditional chief in regionalcapital Buea. Separatists 14 Nov killed two soldiers near Mamfe city, Manyu division, and 26 Nov killedthree others in Ekondo-Titi commune, Ndian division. Soldiers 25 Nov reportedly killed at least twocivilians in Akwaya commune, Manyu division. In Far North region, Boko Haram (BH) 10-25 Nov killed atleast 14 civilians and kidnapped several others across region. Army overnight 18-19 Nov clashed withsuspected jihadists in Mora town, killing two. Meanwhile, opposition leader Maurice Kamto remainedunder de facto house arrest in capital Yaoundé after calling for protest against President Biya in Sept.Authorities night of 3-4 Nov detained nine members of Kamto’s Cameroon Renaissance Movement(MRC), including his spokesperson, for “rebellion” among other charges. Electoral commission starteddistribution of voter cards to members of electoral college ahead of 6 Dec regional elections, which MRCand other opposition party Social Democratic Front are boycotting.

NOVEMBER 2020

Central African Republic NOVEMBER 2020



Tensions increased over former President Bozizé’s presidential candidacy, raising risk of violencearound 27 Dec general elections; armed group activity persisted across country. Electoralcommission 1-10 Nov registered 22 presidential candidates, including President Touadéra and formerPresident Bozizé. Controversy persisted over latter’s eligibility, as electoral code requires at least oneyear in-country residency before running for president and exact date of Bozizé’s return from exileremains unclear. Former President Djotodia 8 Nov called on Bozizé to “respect the law” to preserve“stability and peace”. Constitutional Court to release �nal list of candidates early Dec. Meanwhile, armedgroup Return, Restitution and Rehabilitation (3R) attacks decreased further in north west. 3Rcombatants 4 Nov, however, detained Fulani herder in Sanguere village, Ouham-Pendé prefecture; 3Rreportedly repositioned on strategic axes ahead of transhumance movements, raising risk of furtherattacks on pastoralists in coming weeks. 3R leader Sidiki Abbas 3 Nov accused govt of failing to honourcommitments made during meeting on electoral preparations last month and threatened to disruptelections. In south east, suspected armed group Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition(SPLA-IO) faction led by James Nando 8 Nov attacked armed group Union for Peace in Central Africa(UPC) camp in Bambouti town, Haut-Mbomou prefecture, killing two UPC combatants and sufferingheavy losses; clashes resumed 15 Nov, killing one civilian. Disarmament, Demobilisation, Rehabilitationand Reintegration process continued, with over 400 armed group combatants demobilised in Vakaga(north east) and Nana-Grébizi (north) prefectures 16 Oct-3 Nov. UPC leader Ali Darassa 4 Nov said 200UPC elements were ready to demobilise in Haute-Kotto (east) and Ouaka (centre) prefectures, called onall armed groups in east to follow suit in lead-up to general elections. Community leaders from northeast, where intercommunal tensions �ared in early 2020, 7-10 Nov met with Touadéra in capital Bangui,signed reconciliation agreement. UN Security Council 12 Nov extended mandate of UN peacekeepingmission (MINUSCA) until 15 Nov 2021.

Chad

Violence continued around Lake Chad and political tensions increased as President Déby pressedahead with constitutional revision ahead of 2021 presidential election. Small-scale jihadist attacksagainst civilians and military continued in Lake province in west. Boko Haram overnight 3-4 Novattacked Barkalam village, killing two and abducting another; 11 Nov killed seven in Ngoundadiyavillage; explosive device overnight 24-25 Nov killed four soldiers and injured dozens between Ngoubouaet Litri localities. Farmer-herder violence 23-24 Nov broke out in and around Bélé village, south-westernMayo-Kebbi Est province, reportedly leaving 22 dead and 34 injured; security forces 25 Nov reportedlyarrested 66 including local of�cials on suspicions of involvement in violence. Following Oct uptick intensions between army and local self-defence militia over gold mining in northern Tibesti province nearLibya, several senior military of�cers including army chief of staff visited region in Nov; military vehiclesand equipment arrived in area 27 Nov. Amid persistent concern that Chadian rebels are usingneighbouring Libya and Sudan as launching pads for attacks into Chad, Déby 16 Nov met with leader ofChadian rebel group based in Sudan and active in Libya, Abdelwahid Aboud Mackaye, in capital

NOVEMBER 2020



N’Djamena; Aboud Mackaye during and after meeting called on rebels to give up armed combat.Meanwhile, most opposition and civil society groups boycotted National Inclusive Forum onconstitutional reform held in N’Djamena 29 Oct-1 Nov. Govt 12 Nov adopted constitutional reform bill;newly created VP will be directly appointed by president, sparking renewed concern that Déby couldpromote close relatives. Opposition repeatedly said constitutional revision will increase centralisation ofpower and minimum age requirement purposefully keeps 37-year-old opposition �gure Succès Masra outof 11 Apr 2021 presidential race. Police 5 Nov used tear gas to disperse Masra’s supporters in N’Djamena,reportedly injuring several. Govt 26 Nov banned opposition’s “citizens’ forum” planned for 27-29 Nov,citing COVID-19 concerns. Police 27 Nov arrested about 70 people, mostly journalists, in premises ofradio FM Liberté in N’Djamena for allegedly attempting to organise forum.

Democratic Republic Of Congo

Armed group attacks continued unabated in eastern provinces, while tensions remained close tobreaking point within ruling coalition. In North Kivu province’s Beni territory, suspected armed groupAllied Democratic Forces (ADF) 7 Nov killed 12 in Kisima and Matadi villages; 9 Nov killed four inMbujimayi village; 17 Nov reportedly killed six in Kokola village. In South Kivu province, unidenti�edarmed men 3 Nov kidnapped three humanitarian workers from NGO Oxfam on Kundu-Fizi-centre axis,Fizi territory. In Ituri province, Djugu territory registered relative lull in violence, despite clashesbetween army and CODECO militia faction Alliance for the Liberation of Congo, which left �ve soldiersdead in Ezekere locality 3 Nov; suspected ADF around 10 Nov killed six civilians in Samboko village,Mambasa territory. Meanwhile, ruling coalition partners, President Tshisekedi and former PresidentKabila’s Common Front for Congo (FCC), remained at loggerheads. In alleged attempt to drum upsupport for his plan to break away from FCC, Tshisekedi 1-24 Nov held series of meetings withopposition and religious leaders, as well as some FCC members, to win them over. After social mediamessages early Nov called on army to revolt against poor working conditions, including wage arrears andlack of equipment, army 12 Nov denied any unrest within army ranks and warned politicians against anyattempt to manipulate military. Thousands of Tshisekedi supporters 14 Nov marched in capital Kinshasato demand end of coalition with FCC; during march, sec gen of Tshisekedi’s Union for Democracy andSocial Progress accused FCC �nance minister of freezing funds intended for salaries of civil servants andespecially military, in order to turn them against Tshisekedi. Earlier in month, opposition lawmakers 7Nov started gathering signatures to submit no-con�dence motion against pro-Kabila National AssemblyPresident Jeanine Mabunda; over 230 MPs by next day had already supported initiative, surpassingrequired threshold to put motion to vote. Council of State 23 Nov rejected MP Albert Fabrice Puela’srequest that Mabunda and her of�ce resign for not having submitted �nancial report to plenary on time.

NOVEMBER 2020



Djibouti

Govt expressed support for Ethiopia’s govt after con�ict erupted between Ethiopia’s federal andTigray regional state forces. As part of Ethiopia’s effort to garner regional support for its militarycampaign against Tigray, Ethiopian PM Abiy’s national security adviser 16 Nov met with PresidentGuelleh in capital Djibouti City; in follow-up statement, Djibouti’s govt said it recognised Abiy’s govt “asthe sole guarantor” of Ethiopia’s unity and territorial integrity.

NOVEMBER 2020

Eritrea

Con�ict between Ethiopia’s federal govt and Tigray regional state spilled over to Eritrea asrockets were �red on country’s capital. Ethiopian federal govt 4 Nov launched military offensiveagainst Tigray which shares border and has long had hostile relationship with Eritrea (see Ethiopia).Tigray President Debretsion Gebremichael 10 Nov accused Eritrea of sending troops into Tigray insupport of Addis Ababa; Eritrean FM Osman Saleh same day denied allegation, saying that it “is aninternal con�ict” of which “we are not part”. Tigray 14 and reportedly 27-28 Nov �red several rockets atEritrean capital Asmara. As part of regional tour mid-Nov, Eritrean delegation led by Saleh andpresidential adviser Yemane Gebreab notably discussed Ethiopia-Tigray con�ict with Sudanese PMHamdok and Sovereign Council head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan 11 Nov and with Egyptian FM SamehShoukry 18 Nov.

NOVEMBER 2020

Ethiopia

Violent con�ict erupted in Tigray region, killing thousands and displacing many more; despitecapture by federal forces of Tigray’s capital late month, regional leaders vowed to continue�ghting. Following months of tensions between federal and Tigray’s govts, PM Abiy 4 Nov orderedmilitary offensive against Tigray after alleged attack same day by regional forces on federal military inTigray, which reportedly killed dozens. Federal troops, supported by Amhara regional forces,

NOVEMBER 2020



subsequently launched ground and air operations against Tigray forces; �ghting reportedly killedthousands and prompted tens of thousands to �ee to neighbouring Sudan. Both sides reportedlycommitted atrocities including 9-10 Nov massacre by Tigrayan militia of at least 600 civilians in Mai-Kadra town in West Tigray Zone. Tigray 13 Nov �red rockets at Bahir Dar and Gondar airports inneighbouring Amhara region; and 14 Nov and reportedly 27-28 Nov at Eritrea’s capital Asmara, afteraccusing neighbouring country of supporting federal forces’ offensive (see Eritrea). As federal forcesadvanced on Tigray’s capital Mekelle, Abiy 22 Nov issued 72-hour ultimatum demanding Tigray regionalforces lay down arms; 26 Nov announced he had ordered assault on Mekelle after Tigrayan leadershiprefused to surrender; 28 Nov said federal forces had taken control of Mekelle and announced end ofmilitary operations in Tigray. Tigray President and ruling party Tigray People’s Liberation Front leaderDebretsion Gebremichael immediately said its forces would continue “to �ght these invaders to the last”.Amid con�ict, Abiy 8 Nov replaced army chief, head of intelligence and FM; Ethiopian human rightscommission 30 Nov said it received complaints throughout month about ethnic pro�ling and harassmentof ethnic Tigrayans, notably within civil service and federal army. In Oromia region in centre, suspectedmembers of armed group Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) 1 Nov reportedly killed tens of ethnic Amhara inWestern Wollega zone; following attack, Oromia security forces launched operations reportedly killingover 150 OLA �ghters. In Benishangul-Gumuz region in north west, unidenti�ed gunmen 14 Nov killedat least 34 civilians in Metekel Zone. In Southern Nations region in south, unidenti�ed assailants mid-Nov reportedly killed dozens. Tripartite negotiations on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam remainedstalled (see Nile Waters).

ALERT: Avoiding a Bloodbath in Ethiopia’s Mekelle

Kenya

President Kenyatta launched signature campaign to trigger referendum on constitutional reform,tensions rose with Somalia and Al-Shabaab attacks continued in north east. Kenyatta andopposition leader Raila Odinga 2 Nov unveiled roadmap for referendum on constitutional reform, atcentre of power struggle with VP William Ruto, scheduling it for June 2021; 25 Nov launched signaturedrive to trigger referendum process. In Mandera county in north east, Al-Shabaab militants 13 Novreportedly killed security of�cer near Mandera town; roadside bomb 30 Nov left at least �ve policeof�cers injured on Jabibar-Rhamu road. Somalia 29 Nov expelled Kenya’s ambassador and recalled itsown, accusing Nairobi of interfering in its upcoming elections by “placing great political pressure on theregional president of Jubaland” (see Somalia); Kenya next day denied allegations. In Turkana county innorth west, attack by suspected ethnic Pokot gunmen 19 Nov left one dead and three others missing inKapedo village. In Elgeyo-Marakwet county in west, suspected ethnic Pokot militia 6 Nov killed twoherders in Kipchumwa locality. In Meru county in centre, assailants reportedly from Turkana county 12Nov shot and killed herder and next day shot and injured at least nine police of�cers as well as onecivilian in Makinya locality. Kenyatta 16 Nov received Ethiopian FM Demeke Mekonnen in capitalNairobi, called for de-escalation of con�ict that erupted in Ethiopia (see Ethiopia). In Marsabit countynear Ethiopian border in north, Ethiopian security forces 23 Nov clashed with Oromo Liberation Army

NOVEMBER 2020

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/alert

https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/ethiopia/avoiding-bloodbath-ethiopias-mekelle



(OLA) rebels in Moyale town, toll unknown; Ethiopian security forces next day detained at least nineKenyans for allegedly sheltering OLA rebels.

Somalia

Appointment of electoral commissions, in charge of overseeing upcoming indirect elections,sparked major dispute; tensions rose with Kenya; and Al-Shabaab continued deadly attacks.Ahead of Dec parliamentary elections and Feb 2021 presidential vote, federal govt early Nov appointedfederal electoral commission, dispute resolution commission and regional electoral commission forbreakaway Somaliland, sparking strong opposition. Coalition of six opposition parties, Forum forNational Parties, 7 Nov rejected federal electoral and dispute resolution commissions, condemninginclusion of intelligence service agents and civil servants; coalition said federal govt has no legalauthority to appoint Somaliland representatives and that Somaliland’s commission should be appointedby speaker of federal parliament’s upper house, Abdi Hashi. Hashi 21 Nov appointed parallel electoralbody for Somaliland. Fourteen presidential candidates 26 Nov demanded dissolution of all commissions,accusing President Farmajo of stacking electoral bodies with loyalists; candidates threatened toundertake further actions if demands are not met. Jubaland state President Madobe 28 Nov reiteratedthat parliamentary polls would not take place in disputed Gedo region as long as federal troops remaindeployed there; Mogadishu next day expelled Kenya’s ambassador and recalled its own, accusing Nairobiof interfering in its internal affairs by prompting Madobe to renege on “election agreement” reached inSept; Kenya next day denied allegations. In Hirshabelle state, candidate backed by federal govt, AliGudlawe, 11 Nov won Hirshabelle’s presidential election; following polls, clan militia mobilised outsideHiraan regional capital Beledweyne against election results, and late Nov reportedly clashed with federalforces. In south and centre, Al-Shabaab killed at least 40 civilians and security personnel throughoutmonth in Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Bakool, Mudug and Galguduud regions. In capital Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab attacks left at least 15 dead throughout month. After con�ict broke out in Ethiopia betweenfederal govt and Tigray regional state (see Ethiopia), Addis Ababa early Nov reportedly began withdrawalof about 3,000 soldiers unaf�liated with African Union mission (AMISOM) from Gedo region in south;Ethiopia 18 Nov said it had disarmed ethnic Tigrayan of�cers within its AMISOM contingent.

BRIEFING: Staving off Violence around Somalia’s Elections

NOVEMBER 2020

Somaliland NOVEMBER 2020

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/briefing

https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/somalia/b163-staving-violence-around-somalias-elections



Somaliland began registering voters for long-delayed elections. Voter registration for parliamentaryand local elections, which have been postponed several times since 2019 and are now planned for May2021, started 29 Nov. In Sool region in east, unidenti�ed gunmen 3 and 17 Nov shot and killed policeof�cer and judge in regional capital Las Anod; landmine 13 Nov killed at least three herders nearDharkeyn-Genyo village. In Togdheer region in centre, roadside bomb 14 Nov killed at least one in Balli-dhiig district. In Sanaag region in east, Somalia’s Puntland forces early Nov reportedly launchedoperations against Al-Shabaab after group late Oct reportedly captured several villages. After Somalilandsuspended all UN programs in late Oct in protest at UN-Somalia cooperation agreement, President Bihiand UN Envoy to Somalia James Swan early Nov reportedly held talks to resolve dispute.

South Sudan

Efforts to form govts at state and local levels continued, and holdout rebel group NationalSalvation Front (NAS) agreed to join peace agreement’s cease�re monitoring body. Former rebelleader turned VP Riek Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) mid-Novsaid it would not submit its nominees for state minister and county commissioner positions untilPresident Salva Kiir appoints Machar’s pick for governor of contested Upper Nile state; late Novreportedly agreed to formation of state and local governments except in Upper Nile state. Macharcontinued to face mounting dissent within SPLA-IO, whose Sec Gen Peter Tingo 10 Nov resigned, citingMachar’s poor leadership. South Sudan National Dialogue, launched by Kiir in 2017, mid-Novrecommended to return country to 32 states; measure, if implemented, could derail transition as Kiir’sdecision in Feb 2020 to revert country to its original ten states had paved way for formation of unitygovt. In Italy’s capital Rome, govt and NAS 9-13 Nov held talks aimed at incorporating NAS into peaceagreement’s cease�re monitoring body (CTSAMVM); after brie�y walking out of talks, accusing govt ofviolating cease�re in Central Equatoria state in south 10 Nov, NAS agreed to join CTSAMVM in Jan2021. In Warrap state in centre, intercommunal clashes 8-9 Nov left at least 16 dead and several dozeninjured in Tonj East county; UN 17 Nov said more than 1,000 people had died in past six months inintercommunal violence in Warrap state. In Jonglei state in east, intercommunal clashes early to mid-Nov left at least 13 dead in Fangak county. In Upper Nile state in east, unidenti�ed gunmen 4 Nov killedtwo prominent ethnic Shilluk in state capital Malakal. In Central Equatoria state in south, former SPLA-IO senior commander who in Sept defected to Kiir’s forces late Nov reportedly attacked SPLA-IO base inKajo-Keji county. UN Security Council 12 Nov extended mandate of peacekeeping force in contestedAbyei region until May 2021.

NOVEMBER 2020



Sudan

Former rebel leaders returned to country to start implementation of Oct peace agreement;meanwhile, tens of thousands of refugees arrived in east after con�ict broke out in Ethiopia’sTigray. As part of Oct peace agreement, Sovereign Council head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan 12 Nov signeddecree granting general amnesty to leaders of rebel coalition Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF), SudanLiberation Movement/Army faction leader Minni Minnawi and military and paramilitary forces involvedin �ghting rebels. Amid peace celebrations, SRF leaders and Minnawi 15 Nov arrived in capital Khartoumfrom South Sudan to begin implementation of peace deal, which provides for integration of former rebelleaders into Sovereign Council, cabinet and Transitional Legislative Council. Govt and holdout rebelgroup Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North faction led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu late Oct-early Novfailed to make progress in talks aimed at clinching distinct peace deal. Sudanese Communist Party 7 Novannounced its withdrawal from governing Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC). FFC 19 Nov announcedpostponement of formation of Transitional Legislative Council to 31 Dec due to spike in COVID-19 casesand to enable further consultations with returned former rebel leaders on allocation of seats. In CentralDarfur state, rival factions of holdout rebel group Sudan Liberation Movement/Army led by Abdel Wahidal-Nur 7-8 Nov clashed in Sabi area, reportedly displacing hundreds. In North Darfur state, attacks byunidenti�ed gunmen 7-30 Nov left at least �ve civilians dead. UN Security Council 12 Nov extendedmandate of peacekeeping force in disputed Abyei region until May 2021. After �ghting erupted early Novbetween Ethiopia’s federal govt and Tigray regional state (see Ethiopia), more than 43,000 refugees �edfrom Ethiopia into eastern Sudan’s Al-Qadarif, Kassala and Blue Nile states throughout month. Sudan 21Nov withdrew from new round of tripartite talks on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, called for newmethod of negotiation (see Nile Waters).

PODCAST: The Horn: Sudan's U.S. Terror Delisting: Too Little, Too Late?

NOVEMBER 2020

Tanzania

Several opposition �gures sought refuge abroad amid post-election crackdown. Hours beforeplanned opposition protests against President Magufuli’s late-Oct re-election, authorities 2 Nov arrestedeight opposition leaders, including Chadema party presidential candidate Tundu Lissu, Chadema chairFreeman Mbowe, and former MP Godbless Lema in capital Dar es Salaam; all eight released withoutcharges later same day. Magufuli 5 Nov was sworn in for second term. Lissu 7 Nov said he had foundrefuge in German embassy in Dar es Salaam 2 Nov after being brie�y detained by police and receivingdeath threats, and 10 Nov left Tanzania for Belgium. Lema 8 Nov �ed to neighbouring Kenya, where hewas granted asylum next day after being brie�y detained. UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet 10

NOVEMBER 2020

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/podcast

https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/horn-sudans-us-terror-delisting-too-little-too-late



Nov urged govt to respect rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly, and called forinvestigation into late-Oct killing by suspected police of�cers of at least ten people on semi-autonomousZanzibar archipelago. International Criminal Court 14 Nov con�rmed receipt of two formal letters fromopposition Alliance for Change and Transparency party and independent human rights activist MariaSarungi Tsehai, requesting inquiry into alleged human rights violations by govt in recent weeks. Lissu 26Nov urged international community to impose sanctions on Magufuli’s administration. Tanzania andMozambique police chiefs 20 Nov agreed to launch joint operations against Islamist insurgents inMozambique’s Cabo Delgado province (see Mozambique), after violence spilled over into Tanzania inOct.

Uganda

Deadly violence erupted ahead of early 2021 general elections. Clashes between security forces andsupporters of opposition National Unity Platform leader and presidential hopeful Bobi Wine 18-20 Novleft over 50 people dead across country, most of them in capital Kampala; crowd was protesting Wine’s18 Oct arrest, second in two weeks, on grounds of violating COVID-19-related restrictions on in-personcampaigning; Wine released on bail 20 Nov. Earlier in month, electoral commission 3 Nov cleared 11candidates to run for president, including incumbent President Museveni, Wine and Forum forDemocratic Change party nominee Patrick Amuriat Oboi. Police same day brie�y detained Wine andAmuriat, used teargas and reportedly �red shots to disperse opposition supporters who had gatheredaround their respective party of�ces in capital Kampala, leaving seven injured including police of�cers.Electoral commission 4 Nov said presidential and legislative elections would take place 14 Jan. Police 14Nov reportedly denied Wine access to Ateker FM radio studios; Wine same day denounced doublestandards in application of COVID-19 restrictions, saying “our people are brutalized, teargassed andarrested for gathering” while President Museveni “parades [supporters] on streets under policeprotection.” Police 17-18 Nov brie�y detained Amuriat in Kitgum town and Gulu city, Northern region,used teargas to disperse his supporters. Museveni 29 Nov called opposition parties “criminal gangs” to bedealt with.

NOVEMBER 2020

Angola

Police violently repressed anti-govt demonstration. Following calls by main opposition partyNational Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), thousands of youths 11 Nov took tostreets in capital Luanda for second time in less than three weeks to protest against rampant poverty and

NOVEMBER 2020



govt corruption, and to call for new date for local elections delayed by COVID-19 pandemic; securityforces used teargas and live bullets to disperse crowd, reportedly killing one protester and injuringseveral others. NGO Human Rights Watch next day deplored “heavy-handed policing and violentrepression of peaceful protests”, urged govt to investigate abuses. President Lourenço 26 Nov held talksin Luanda with 17 youth organisations, including UNITA’s youth wing, to appease tensions.

Mozambique

Islamist militants staged large-scale offensive in far north, seizing second district capital sinceAug and leaving scores dead; armed dissident faction of opposition Renamo party continuedviolent attacks in centre. In Cabo Delgado province in far north, Islamist insurgents late Oct to mid-Nov staged offensive in Muidumbe district, capturing district capital Namacande and reportedly killingat least 50 and possibly hundreds more in Muatide area. Police Commander Bernardino Rafael 19 Novsaid security forces had retaken control of Namacande, but insurgents reportedly returned to town bymonth’s end, clashing with security forces 27 Nov. In following days, �ghting moved north east towardgarrison town of Mueda, with insurgents 29 Nov killing 18 soldiers in Ntushi locality. More than 45,000�ed Muidumbe district 28 Oct-25 Nov. In Palma district, insurgents 2 Nov launched attack on Pundanhartown, kidnapping �ve civilians; in response, security forces next day reportedly killed at least 33insurgents. In Macomia district, insurgents 5-6 Nov attacked Nanjaba and Napala villages, killing �vecivilians and kidnapping six others. Insurgents late Nov captured sailboats off coast of Palma andMocímboa da Praia districts, marking �rst instances of sea piracy by insurgents. Mozambique andTanzania 20 Nov signed agreement to launch joint operations against insurgents and share intelligenceafter violence spilled over into Tanzania in Oct. Southern Africa regional bloc SADC’s Organ on Politics,Defence and Security Cooperation 27 Nov called for “comprehensive regional response” and urgentsupport to Mozambique. In centre, suspected members of Renamo Military Junta (JMR), dissident factionof opposition party Renamo, 3 Nov attacked vehicle in area between Gorongosa and Nhamatandadistricts in Sofala province, injuring two civilians; Junta leader Mariano Nhongo same day deniedresponsibility. President Nyusi – whose unilateral cease�re in Oct failed to kickstart peace talks with JMR– 5 Nov said “it is clear that there is no interest [from JMR] to engage in dialogue” and vowed to “takecare” of group; 18 Nov said dissidents had carried out two attacks in Manica province’s Sussundengadistrict, leaving three civilians injured; further attack in Sussundenga 25-26 Nov left at least twoinjured.

NOVEMBER 2020

Zimbabwe NOVEMBER 2020



Authorities continued to harass govt critics through legal means. In capital Harare, police 3 Novarrested prominent investigative journalist Hopewell Chin’ono on charges of “contempt of court” and“obstruction of justice”; “contempt of court” charges later dropped; move followed Chin’ono’s late Octcorruption allegations against National Prosecution Authority in case of Henrietta Rushwaya, ZimbabweMines Federation president, who was caught smuggling 6kg of gold; in following days, Westernembassies, rights groups and press freedom watchdogs expressed concern over Chino’no’s arrest; HighCourt 20 Nov released him on bail, after Harare Magistrate’s Court refused to do so 12 Nov. PresidentMnangagwa 5 Nov suspended High Court judge Erica Ndewere and appointed tribunal to investigate herfor alleged misconduct after she recently granted bail to two prominent politicians accused of incitingviolence – including vice chairman of Nelson Chamisa-led faction of main opposition party Movementfor Democratic Change (MDC), Job Sikhala. Amid struggle between Chamisa and MDC rival faction leaderThokozani Khupe, ruling party ZANU-PF 17 Nov described Khupe’s faction as “honourable opposition”and Chamisa’s as “treasonous”. Federation of trade unions Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) 2Nov threatened to launch nationwide strike to demand govt pay public sector wages in U.S. dollars; afterseveral previous rejections, other civil servant representative bodies 16 Nov agreed to govt’s offer to raisecivil servants’ salaries by 41%. Amid escalating Islamist insurgency in neighbouring Mozambique (seeMozambique), Mnangagwa 27 Nov attended summit of Southern Africa regional bloc SADC inBotswana’s capital Gaborone; SADC’s Organ on Politics, Defence and Security Cooperation called for“comprehensive regional response” to insurgency and urgent support to Mozambique.

REPORT: All That Glitters is Not Gold: Turmoil in Zimbabwe’s Mining Sector

Côte D’Ivoire

Electoral commission announced incumbent President Ouattara’s re-election amid deadly post-electoral violence. Violent incidents broke out following 31 Oct presidential election, notably inopposition strongholds in centre. Unidenti�ed gunmen 1-4 Nov attacked several govt and ruling partyof�cials’ convoys near capital Yamoussoukro and in Toumodi department, leaving three dead.Meanwhile, electoral commission 3 Nov declared Ouattara as presidential election winner with 94.27% ofvotes. Opposition parties under leadership of Henri Konan Bédié and Pascal Af� N’Guessan – bothcandidates in Oct presidential election – 2 Nov announced creation of National Transitional Council, incharge of forming transitional govt. Security forces next day surrounded Bédié’s house in Cocodyneighbourhood of economic capital Abidjan and arrested 21 members of his inner circle. Police 6 Novarrested Af� N’Guessan in south-eastern Akoupé town over accusations of “attack and conspiracyagainst the state authority, murder and act of terrorism”. Constitutional Council 9 Nov con�rmedOuattara’s re-election, sparking further deadly violence in centre. In M’Batto town, ethnic Malinkéruling party supporters 9-10 Nov clashed with ethnic Agni opposition protesters, leaving at least �vedead and several critically wounded; in Daoukro city, intercommunal clashes 9 Nov reportedly killed sixand wounded over 50; in Ellibou village, clashes between security forces and locals 9 Nov reportedly leftthree dead. UN refugee agency 10 Nov said over 8,000 Ivorians had �ed to neighbouring countries since

NOVEMBER 2020


https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/southern-africa/zimbabwe/294-all-glitters-not-gold-turmoil-zimbabwes-mining-sector



election day. Govt next day said 31 were killed in post-electoral violence 1-10 Nov. Ouattara and Bédié 11Nov met in Abidjan to “break the ice”; Bédié 20 Nov said release of detained opposition members wasprerequisite for any future talks. Meanwhile, West Africa regional bloc ECOWAS 10 Nov and FrenchPresident Macron 15 Nov congratulated Ouattara on re-election, called for dialogue with opposition.

Guinea

Govt launched wave of arrests as opposition continued to contest President Condé’s re-election.Oct presidential election runner-up Cellou Dalein Diallo and three other opposition candidates 1 Novappealed against election results before Constitutional Court, citing irregularities including allegedballot stuf�ng in Upper and Middle Guinea, harassment of opposition election observers and abuse ofproxy voting; court 7 Nov rejected plea over “lack of evidence” and con�rmed Condé’s re-election. Condésame day promised to end “disorder in Guinea”. In following days, police launched raids notably in pro-opposition neighbourhoods of capital Conakry, reportedly arresting scores, including Diallo’s Union ofDemocratic Forces of Guinea VP Ibrahima Chérif Bah and three other party of�cials 11-12 Nov; Dialloimmediately accused Condé of seeking to “behead” his party. Condé 13 Nov denied “witch hunt” againstopposition and expressed willingness for dialogue. Govt 22 Nov banned demonstrations, citing COVID-19 concerns. Security forces 25 Nov dispersed hundreds of Diallo supporters in Labé city (centre north),reportedly leaving several injured. Meanwhile, West Africa regional bloc ECOWAS 10 Nov congratulatedCondé for his victory, while French President Macron 20 Nov refrained to do so, instead voicing concernover “grave” situation and deploring Condé amended constitution to “stay in power”.

NOVEMBER 2020

Guinea-Bissau

Former PM Aristides Gomes �led human rights complaint against govt. Gomes’ lawyers 19 Novsaid they had �led legal complaint to West Africa regional bloc ECOWAS alleging govt’s “forciblecon�nement” of Gomes at UN mission headquarters in capital Bissau, where he took refuge earlier thisyear as authorities initiated several investigations against him.

NOVEMBER 2020



Asia

Nigeria

Jihadist and criminal violence continued in North East and North West, and authorities crackeddown on instigators of #EndSARS protest movement. In Borno state in North East, jihadists 1 Novkilled 12 civilians and kidnapped nine others in Chibok town. Landmine laid by jihadists next day killednine soldiers in Abadam town. Boko Haram (BH) 21 Nov killed seven soldiers and two civilians in attackon Borno state governor’s convoy on Gajiram-Monguno axis. Jihadists 28 Nov killed at least 43 farmersand abducted uncon�rmed number of people in Zabarmari village near state capital Maiduguri.Meanwhile, army and vigilantes 2 Nov killed “scores” of BH insurgents in Nganzai town, and airstrikes 8and 10 Nov targeted Islamic State West Africa Province and BH insurgents in Abadam and Gwoza towns,death toll unknown. In North West, criminal violence continued to take high toll on civilians. In Kadunastate, unidenti�ed gunmen 6-7 Nov abducted 13 in Dande village, Chikun area, and near state capitalKaduna; 15-17 Nov killed at least 16 and abducted many others in several attacks across state. In Katsinastate, unidenti�ed gunmen 8 Nov killed three civilians and kidnapped 13 others in Sabuwa area; sameday kidnapped six police of�cers in Dogondaji area. In Zamfara state, unidenti�ed gunmen 11 Nov killedcivilian and abducted �ve others in Anka area; 20 Nov attacked mosque in Dutsen Gari village, reportedlykilling �ve and abducting 18 others, including imam; 30 Nov killed eight civilians and abducted 38 inTalata-Mafara area. In South, clashes between rival cult groups, notably Aye and Eiye, 1-15 Nov killedover 40, mostly around Edo state capital Benin City. After protests against Special Anti-Robbery Unit(SARS) turned deadly last month, govt late Oct-early Nov launched legal action against individuals andorganisations af�liated with protest movement, including seizing travel documents and freezing bankaccounts.

PODCAST: Protests against Police Brutality Shake Nigeria

NOVEMBER 2020

China/Japan

Tensions continued between Japan and China over contested island chain in East China Sea;meanwhile, Tokyo and Canberra announced landmark military pact. Amid recent tensions overChinese military activity in Asia-Paci�c region, Australian PM Scott Morrison and Japanese PMYoshihide Suga 17 Nov met in Japan’s capital Tokyo to discuss recent developments in South and EastChina Seas; meeting culminated in Reciprocal Access Agreement to bolster defence ties, allowingJapanese and Australian troops to conduct training and joint operations, and permitting rapiddeployment of defence forces to each country. Both leaders same day expressed “serious concerns” about

NOVEMBER 2020


https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria/protests-against-police-brutality-shake-nigeria



situation in East China Sea, vowing “strong opposition to any coercive unilateral actions”. Chinese statemedia 18 Nov criticised deal that “clearly targets China” and “further accelerates the confrontationalatmosphere” in region, while Commander of U.S. Navy Seventh Fleet Vice Admiral William Merz 19 Novwelcomed pact as “encouraging to everybody in the region”. Following incursion of two Chinesecoastguard vessels into Japanese territorial waters in mid-Oct, President-elect Joe Biden 12 Novcon�rmed during phone conversation with PM Suga his commitment to strengthening U.S.-Japanalliance to achieve free and open Indo-Paci�c, and that Article 5 of 1951 Japan-U.S. Security Treaty –speci�cally U.S. obligation to defend Japan should its territories come under attack – would be applied toOkinawa Prefecture and Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Chinese FM Wang Yi 24 Nov met with Japanese FMToshimitsu Motegi in Tokyo where both agreed to continue communication on issues regarding EastChina Sea and to ease restrictions on business travels imposed in wake of COVID-19 by end of month.

Korean Peninsula

Regional tensions over alleged arms development continued while international actorsmaintained pressure on Pyongyang. Following brie�ng by National Intelligence Service, lawmaker inSeoul 3 Nov claimed Pyongyang is building two new submarines, including one capable of �ring ballisticmissiles. North Korean State media 4 Nov accused Japan of building missile system, describingdevelopments as “challenge to regional peace and stability”. After Pyongyang revealed previously unseenintercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in Oct, U.S. navy 17 Nov tested for �rst time intercontinentalmissile defence system from Kwajalein Atoll in Republic of Marshall Islands, successfully interceptingICBM. Following International Atomic Energy Agency meeting in Austria’s capital Vienna, DirectorGeneral Rafael Grossi 18 Nov said nuclear “activity is taking place” at Kangson facility near Pyongyang.Meanwhile, police in South Korea’s capital Seoul early Nov sent cases to prosecutors’ of�ce againsthuman rights groups, reportedly for breaking inter-Korean exchange law by sending balloons with anti-Pyongyang lea�ets across border. Seoul 4 Nov claimed to have detained citizen from north who hadcrossed border near Goseong county previous evening; govt did not say whether he was civilian ormember of military. UN special rapporteur on North Korea’s human rights situation 19 Nov sent letter toSeoul and Pyongyang requesting information on Sept killing of South Korean of�cial in border incident.South Korean FM 8-11 Nov visited Washington for talks, including with Sec State Pompeo on U.S.-ROKalliance, while U.S. President-elect Biden and South Korean President Moon 12 Nov reaf�rmedcommitment to alliance and peaceful Korean peninsula during phone call. U.S. 19 Nov announcedsanctions on North Korean company operating in Russia and Russian construction company for“exportation of forced labour from North Korea”, accusing companies of using forced labour to “generaterevenue” for govt. German of�cials 17 Nov accused Russia and China of preventing UN Security Councilfrom determining whether Pyongyang had violated fuel sanctions. Chinese FM Wang Yi 26 Nov metSouth Korean President Moon in Seoul to discuss stalled denuclearisation talks and potential visit ofChinese President Xi to capital.

NOVEMBER 2020



Taiwan Strait

Cross-strait tensions remained high amid intense Chinese and U.S. military activity andWashington’s diplomatic and military support for Taipei. Taiwanese defence ministry claimed seriesof Chinese military aircrafts entered Taiwanese Air Defence Identi�cation Zone (ADIZ) during month,including: one Y-8 reconnaissance plane 1 Nov; two Y-8 anti-submarine aircrafts, two SU-30s, two J-10sand two J-16s 2 Nov; one Y-8 anti-submarine plane 4, 10, 12, 22 and 23 Nov; one Y-8 plane and one Y-8anti-submarine plane 11, 16, 17 and 24 Nov. In response, Taiwan scrambled jets, broadcast radiowarnings and tracked planes with air defence system on each occasion. Meanwhile, U.S. continuedmilitary activity in region as well as support for Taiwan. U.S. State Department 3 Nov cleared potentialsale of four aerial drones to Taiwan; Chinese foreign ministry 4 Nov said U.S. had sent wrong and gravesignals with deal. Taiwanese Naval Command 9 Nov con�rmed that contingent of U.S. Marines arrived totrain troops for four weeks at Tsoying Naval Base; Chinese state media 11 Nov said U.S. training wouldnot affect cross-strait military balance. Plane tracker Aircraft Spots 17 Nov claimed two U.S. Air ForceB1-B bombers entered China’s ADIZ; Beijing-based Probing Initiative 22 Nov reported �ve U.S. Air Forcereconnaissance aircraft and two aerial tankers �ew south of Taiwan’s ADIZ; U.S. Air Force 24 Nov �ewtwo supersonic heavy bombers into East China Sea. U.S. Rear Admiral Michael Studeman 22 Nov madeunannounced visit to Taiwan. U.S. also increased diplomatic support for Taiwan: Washington 6 Novurged World Health Organization (WHO) to invite Taiwan to major meeting focused on COVID-19; WHOmember countries 9 Nov rejected request. U.S. Sec State Pompeo 12 Nov said “Taiwan has not been apart of China”; Beijing next day said that U.S. interference “will be met with a resolute counterattack byChina”. Beijing 11 Nov urged U.S. to “stop any kind of of�cial exchanges or contacts with Taiwan” aheadof Taiwan-U.S. economic talks held virtually and in-person in Washington 20 Nov; talks concluded withdeal to establish “institutionalised dialogue mechanism”.

NOVEMBER 2020

Afghanistan

High-intensity hostilities continued as Taliban attacked areas around Kandahar, while U.S.announced troop drawdown and intra-Afghan peace process remained stalled. Taliban activitysurged from late-Oct until 3-4 Nov, including series of large-scale attacks and operations in threedistricts surrounding Kandahar (south), country’s second-largest city; U.S. reportedly stepped up aerialbombardment of Taliban positions, allowing govt forces to re-enter contested districts; assault inKandahar largely ended by 10 Nov. Elsewhere, Taliban ended self-imposed restrictions on attackingdistrict centres, particularly in north, with attacks in Badghis (north west) and northern Balkh, Kunduzand Jowjzan provinces, including on main highway in latter; operations included Taliban 18 Nov seizingdistrict centre in Badakhshan (north east) in surprise attack on govt forces that caused heavy casualties.However, more mountainous areas during month saw fall in con�ict activity with onset of winter weather

NOVEMBER 2020



conditions. Car bomb in Ghazni province (centre) 29 Nov killed at least 30 members of security forces. Inmajor announcement, Washington 17 Nov said it would reduce total number of U.S. soldiers inAfghanistan from 4,500 to 2,500 by mid-Jan, raising concern over potential surge in Taliban activitythereafter. Islamic State-Khorasan Province 2 Nov killed over 20 people in attack on Kabul University and21 Nov killed at least eight in rocket attack in capital Kabul. Meanwhile, intra-Afghan talks in Qatar’scapital Doha remained stalled. Taliban and govt representatives 15-18 Nov appeared to agree oncompromise over procedure and protocol for negotiations; however, agreement fell apart before beingof�cially con�rmed, reportedly under pressure from President Ghani who opposed substance andcircumstances of agreement. U.S. Sec State Pompeo 21 Nov travelled to Doha to meet with govt andTaliban negotiators. At conference in Geneva, donors 24 Nov pledged some $12bn in aid for next fouryears.

PODCAST: Afghanistan's Peace Process

Bangladesh

Intercommunal unrest broke out with attacks on Hindu minority, while authorities continuedcrackdown on critics. Tens of thousands 2 Nov joined religious groups in capital Dhaka in protestagainst French President Macron’s defence of Prophet Muhammad caricatures. Meanwhile, monthwitnessed numerous attacks against Hindu community: assailants 1 Nov burned �ve Hindu homes inComilla district after Hindu was accused of defending French cartoons deemed blasphemous; same dayauthorities in Noakhali district arrested two Hindus accused of making derogatory remarks about Islam;house of Hindu accused of defaming Islam on social media attacked in Brahmanbaria district 4 Nov; localNGO working on minority rights 3 Nov said sectarian violence had killed at least 17 people since March.Police 12 Nov arrested mosque leader for leading Oct lynching of man in Lamonirhat district followinghis alleged desecration of Quran in mosque; police also charged 30 people for assaulting police of�cersand damaging public property. Govt continued to suppress opponents, including through crackdown onBangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, country’s largest religious party, and its youth wing Islami Chhatra Shibir:police 10 Nov detained seven Shibir activists in Bogra district on charges of planning anti-state violence;14 Nov arrested 25 female Jamaat activists in Kushtia district for allegedly planning sabotage acts andfurther 43 Jamaat and Shibir activists in Feni district on same charges. Following govt use in recentmonths of controversial Digital Security Act to silence critics and journalists, PM Hasina 2 Nov said“spreading false propaganda” does not count as “freedom of speech”. Violence marred Awami League(AL) win in by-elections in Dhaka and Sirajgang districts 12 Nov, including bomb explosions at Dhakapolling station and arson attacks on AL buses; opposition Bangladesh National Party called for recount,alleging intimidation and electoral irregularities. Operations against suspected militants continued;police 7 Nov detained four suspected New Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh members in Bogra districtwhile paramilitary Rapid Action Batallion arrested four other alleged members, including Rajshahiregional chief, during 20 Nov raid in Sirajganj. FM Momen 14 Nov blamed Myanmar, Internationalagencies and NGOs for hindering efforts to relocate Rohingya refugees.

NOVEMBER 2020


https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/afghanistans-peace-process



India (Non-Kashmir)

Anti-Maoist operations continued throughout month; meanwhile, India and China helddisengagement talks amid tensions over disputed border. Isolated anti-Muslim attacks took placethroughout month: ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters 11 Nov attacked mosque in EasterChamparan district in Bihar state, injuring at least four; four men 15 Nov also lynched Muslim in UttarPradesh. BJP-ruled Uttar Pradesh state 22 Nov approved decree criminalising forceful religiousconversion through marriage; law seeks to address so-called “love jihad”, conspiracy theory according towhich Muslim men marry Hindu women to convert them to Islam in order to alter country’sdemographic balance. Meanwhile, anti-Maoist operations and Maoist violence continued. InChhattisgarh state (centre), security forces 3-26 Nov killed six Maoists in Bijapur and Kanker districts;Maoists 3-28 Nov killed three civilians and one police of�cer in Dhamtari, Lohardaga and Sukmadistricts. Also in centre, police 6 and 7 Nov killed Maoist in Balaghat district, Madhya Pradesh state. Ineast, security forces killed Maoist in Malkangiri district, Odisha state, and night of 21-22 Nov shot andkilled three Maoists in Gaya district, Bihar state; Maoists 21 Nov shot and killed civilian in Chatradistrict, Jharkhand state. In Kerala state (south), security forces 3 Nov shot and killed Maoist in Wayanaddistrict. Internationally, Indian and Chinese military of�cials 6 Nov held “candid, in-depth andconstructive” talks on disengagement of forces along Line of Actual Control and agreed to continuedialogue and ensure that their border troops “exercise restraint and avoid misunderstanding andmiscalculation”. After relations between India and Nepal deteriorated following border row in May,India’s army chief 4-6 Nov visited Nepal and held talks with his counterpart and Nepali PM Oli in bid toreset bilateral ties (see Nepal). India, U.S., Japan and Australia held largest annual Malabar militaryexercises in over a decade in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, respectively 3-6 Nov and 17-20 Nov.

NOVEMBER 2020

Kashmir

Cross-border tensions escalated sharply amid deadly incidents along Line of Control (LoC)dividing Pakistan and Indian-administered Kashmir, while insecurity persisted inside Jammu andKashmir (J&K). Violence along LoC rose between New Delhi and Islamabad, with India sufferinghighest military casualty toll since April. Pakistan military said Indian �re 13, 22 and 25 Nov killed onesoldier and 17 civilians. In turn, Indian of�cials claimed several attacks: 8 Nov clash with three militantsattempting to in�ltrate Indian side of LoC in Kupwara district, killing four soldiers; 13 Nov clash alongLoC, killing �ve soldiers and six civilians, and Pakistani shelling same day, injuring 19 civilians; 21 Novsaid Pakistani �ring killed one soldier, and cross-LoC Pakistani �ring injured two civilians; 27 Novclaimed two soldiers killed by Pakistani cross-LoC �ring. Meanwhile in J&K, security forces 1 Nov killed

NOVEMBER 2020



leader of Kashmir’s largest militant group, Hizbul Mujahideen, on outskirts of regional capital Srinagar.In Pulwama district, militants 5 Nov killed one civilian and injured another in two separate attacks, andsecurity forces next day killed two militants. Security forces 19 Nov killed four alleged Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) militants on highway leading to Srinagar; New Delhi 21 Nov lodged protest withPakistan’s top diplomat, alleging four suspected JeM militants had in�ltrated from Pakistan intending tocarry out major terror attack. India 23 Nov claimed to have killed another intruder along internationalborder, while militants 26 Nov killed two soldiers in Srinagar. Opposition alliance raised clampdown onits leaders and activists as authorities 25 Nov arrested Peoples Democratic Party youth wing leader onalleged terrorism charges. Pakistani FM Qureshi 14 Nov accused India of “�nancial and materialsponsorship” of multiple Pakistani terrorist groups; Delhi next day rejected allegations. India 23 Novshared �le with UN Security Council members, alleging in�ltration and attempted attacks by Pakistanimilitants in J&K; Pakistan’s UN ambassador next day responded by accusing India of sponsoringPakistani terrorist groups. Organisation of Islamic Cooperation 28 Nov called on India to rescind 5 Augactions that changed status of J&K; India next day rejected call. First District Development Council localelection held 28 Nov.

Nepal

Intra-party dispute between PM KP Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal, chair of ruling NepalCommunist Party (NCP), threatened to destabilise govt and split party. Dahal 13 Nov presentedreport at NCP secretariat meeting listing series of decisions made by Oli without proper internalconsultation within party; Dahal’s report urged Oli to make “sacri�ce” and indirectly called on him toresign. Oli 28 Nov countered with a separate report rejecting Dahal’s allegations and issued thinly veiledthreats that Dahal could come under scrutiny via transitional justice processes underway to addressabuses committed during ten-year con�ict (1996-2006) when he was leading Maoist rebellion. Oli 21 Novmet with opposition Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, fuelling speculation that Oli- andDahal-led factions may compete to reach an alliance with other major parties to retain parliamentarymajority in event of formal NCP split. Meanwhile, bilateral relations with India continued to improve –notwithstanding unresolved border disputes – following 3-6 Nov visit by Indian Army Chief Gen. MMNaravane and 26-27 Nov visit by Indian FM Harsh Vardhan Shringla to capital Kathmandu; Naravane hadsuggested in May that Nepal was encouraged by China to raise border issue with India. Three ChineseCommunist Party of�cials 24 Nov reportedly arrived to, among other things, voice Beijing’s concernsregarding Sept allegations that Chinese security forces had encroached into northern Nepali district ofHumla; Chinese MFA 2 Nov dismissed reports as lacking factual basis. Chinese Defence Minister WeiFenghe 29 Nov visited Kathmandu to discuss military cooperation.

NOVEMBER 2020



Pakistan

Political tensions remained elevated, particularly around Gilgit-Baltistan’s election, and deadlymilitant violence persisted. Political acrimony continued between govt and opposition PakistanDemocratic Movement (PDM) alliance featuring 11 opposition parties, including Pakistan MuslimLeague-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP); PM Khan 6 and 12 Nov accused alliancemember and former PML-N PM Sharif of undermining army at “behest of India”; Sharif 13 Nov calledKhan “puppet” controlled by undemocratic forces. Govt continued to use anti-corruption cases �led byNational Accountability Bureau to suppress opposition: court 11 Nov indicted Sharif, his wife, daughtersand son, Hamza, who is opposition leader in Punjab Assembly; court 16 Nov indicted former PML-N PMAbbasi and �nance minister Miftah Ismail. Tensions rose further after Khan’s ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party 15 Nov won 22 of 33 seats in Gilgit-Baltistan’s election, emerging as largest party; PPPand PML-N rejected results, alleging massive irregularities, and organised protests. Following three daysof protests, Gilgit-Baltistan’s caretaker govt 18 Nov sought army’s assistance to control securitysituation. Despite govt’s 18 Nov ban on gatherings due to COVID-19, PDM 22 and 30 Nov held large-scale rally in Peshawar and Multan, respectively; PDM local leaders 30 Nov detained for holding 22 Novrally. Meanwhile, militant attacks continued. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, gunmen 1 Nov killedAhmadi man in regional capital Peshawar; militants 18 Nov killed two soldiers in attack on militarycheckpoint in South Waziristan district; security forces 23 Nov claimed they killed Islamic Stateoperational commander in Bajaur district; four employees of military-run Frontier Works Organization26 Nov shot dead in North Waziristan district. In Balochistan province, grenade attack in regional capitalQuetta 12 Nov injured at least seven, including three police. Counter-terrorism police 24 Nov claimed tohave foiled militant suicide attack on police station near Lahore city, Punjab province. Thousands 7 Novdemonstrated against publication of French cartoons deemed blasphemous in Karachi city; some 3,000protesters 30 Nov clashed with police in capital Islamabad. Internationally, Khan, FM Qureshi andintelligence chief Faiz Hameed 19 Nov visited Afghanistan’s capital Kabul to reiterate support forreducing violence in Afghanistan, sides agreed to re-energise intelligence cooperation.

NOVEMBER 2020

Sri Lanka

Unshackled by 20th amendment to constitution, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa installed loyalistsin senior judicial and security positions. Following Oct passage of 20th constitutional amendmentgiving Gotabaya sweeping powers, newly created Parliamentary Council 10 and 23 Nov rubber-stampedGotabaya’s nominees for senior positions, including six Supreme Court justices, 14 Court of Appealjudges and Inspector General of Police. In address to nation on �rst anniversary of 2019 presidentialelection victory, Gotabaya 18 Nov stated that Sinhalese voters voted for him “because they had

NOVEMBER 2020



legitimate fears that the Sinhala race … would be threatened with destruction in the face of various localand foreign forces and ideologies”. Hardline nationalist retired Admiral Sarath Weerasekara, known forpast threats against civil society activists and calls for ban of main Tamil political alliance, 26 Novappointed as minister of public security in charge of police and civil defence force. With arrests and courtorders blocking public commemorations, Tamils 27 Nov held small private Maaveerar Naal (Great HeroesDay, or Tamil Remembrance Day) ceremonies to remember family members killed during three-decadecivil war. Amid second COVID-19 wave, health ministry committee 22 Nov reaf�rmed govt’s policy ofmandatory cremation of all COVID-19 victims despite widespread criticism; opposition leader SajithPremadasa 3 Nov accused govt of violating Muslim rights by cremating their dead; Organisation ofIslamic Cooperation 4 Nov called on govt to “ful�l its human rights obligations by protecting andrespecting the rights of its Muslim minority to practice their religion free from any discrimination”. Insign of closer relations with China, ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party 4 Nov held virtual“Advanced Seminar on Governance Experience” with senior Chinese Communist Party of�cials andChina’s ambassador to Sri Lanka. India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval met Gotabaya and PMduring 27-28 Nov visit to capital Colombo. At least eight people were killed and 50 injured from �re andpolice shooting as inmates in Mahara prison 29 Nov protested risks of rapid COVID-19 spread in prisonsacross island.

OP-ED: Sri Lanka: Under Rajapaksas' Watch, Rule of Law Suffers the Onslaught of Politics

Indonesia

Suspected jihadist group carried out deadly attack in Central Sulawesi while UN warned ofescalating violence in Papua in past months. In Central Sulawesi province, suspected jihadist armedgroup East Indonesia Mujahideen (MIT) 27 Nov killed four civilians and burned down six houses,including Christian place of worship, in Lembantongoa village, Sigi regency; around 150 familiesreportedly �ed to neighbouring village amid continued search for perpetrators; President Widodo 30 Novsaid killings were “beyond the limits of humanity”. Previously, police 17 Nov announced killing of twosuspected jihadists in Parigi Mutong regency, Central Sulawesi. Meanwhile, UN Of�ce of HighCommissioner for Human Rights 30 Nov warned of escalating violence in past weeks and months inPapua and West Papua provinces and risks of renewed tensions, notably ahead of 1 Dec West Papuanindependence day; raised case of 22 Nov police shootout which killed one teenager and injured anotheron Limbaga mountain, Gome district, Papua province; also noted that security forces 17 Nov reportedlydetained 84 people in Merauke Regency, Papua province, ahead of public consultation onimplementation of Special Autonomy Law.

NOVEMBER 2020

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/op-ed

https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/sri-lanka/sri-lanka-under-rajapaksas-watch-rule-law-suffers-onslaught-politics



Myanmar

Ruling party won landslide election victory while �ghting eased in Rakhine State. Generalelections 8 Nov resulted in landslide victory for ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) party,gaining 99% of elected seats in seven Burman-majority regions and 58% of elected seats in ethnic-majority states, securing 83% of elected seats in Union Parliament overall; Union Solidarity andDevelopment Party (USDP) won three seats in Burman-majority regions and 16% of seats in ethnic-majority states; ethnic parties for their part won 25% of seats in ethnic-majority states, only giving them10% of elected seats overall; military gets automatic 25% bloc. USDP 10 Nov alleged in Facebook video“many contentious events during the whole voting process”, urging voters to send evidence of illegalacts, and 11 Nov called on govt to hold another “free, fair, [and] unbiased” vote rerun as soon aspossible. Amid govt’s cancellation of vote in most of Arakan National Party (ANP)’s strongholds in Oct,ANP won largest bloc of seats in Rakhine State Parliament; Rakhine parties however remained short ofmajority. Arakan Army (AA) 12 Nov released statement for �rst time in support of holding elections,calling on govt and military to ensure that elections could be held by 31 Dec in all cancelled RakhineState constituencies; within hours of release, military welcomed statement and committed to supportholding elections in cancelled areas; election commission had yet to respond on possible polls by end ofmonth. Meanwhile, violence eased in Rakhine State throughout month. In Shan State in north,unidenti�ed assassins 22 Nov shot and killed Htike Zaw, MP-elect for ruling NLD party.

PODCAST: Ethnicity and Con�ict in Myanmar

NOVEMBER 2020

Philippines

Clashes in south between militant groups and security forces continued and low-intensity�ghting involving communist rebels persisted. In Maguindanao province in BangsamoroAutonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), clan violence and clashes between insurgents andsecurity forces continued at relatively lower levels than Oct. Clan �re�ght 20 Nov killed two people inMohammad Ajul, Basilan province. Meanwhile, several elements of Islamic State-linked Abu SayyafGroup (ASG) surrendered in Basilan and Tawi-Tawi provinces late Oct-early Nov; military 3 Novintercepted seven ASG members on coast of Parang, Sulu archipelago, killing them in subsequent clasheson seas; security forces 20 Nov clashed with ASG elements in Panamao and Kalingalan Caluangprovinces. Implementation of Bangsamoro peace process continued as govt 17 Nov deployed �rst batchof Joint Peace and Security Team to support decommissioning and disarmament process of Moro IslamicLiberation Front (MILF) combatants. Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) also continuedparliamentary sessions and 1 Nov passed Administrative Code, which de�nes governing rules and

NOVEMBER 2020


https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/ethnicity-and-conflict-myanmar



principles of BARMM governance. Govt efforts to rehabilitate Marawi city remained delayed as govt, BTAand Lanao del Sur continued to �ght spread of COVID-19 in region; Task Force Bangon Marawi chair DelRosario 19 Nov con�rmed rehabilitation still on track with third of rehabilitation already completed.Clashes between communist New People’s Army and armed forces continued throughout month inVisayas islands in centre, Mindanao island in south and Luzon island in north, killing at least tencombatants and civilians, and injuring two.

South China Sea

Tensions persisted between China and claimant parties. Filipino National Security AdviserHermogenes Esperon 5 Nov said that plan to establish maritime militia forces to help counter China’sown use of maritime militias was yet to be �nalised over concerns that it would be “misconstrued”.China’s National People’s Congress 4 Nov posted draft law that would allow Chinese Coast Guard to useweapons against foreign ships involved in illegal activities in Chinese-claimed waters if they fail to obeyChinese orders. At 37th summit of regional organisation ASEAN, Vietnamese PM Phuc 12 Nov openedmeeting by af�rming bloc’s commitment to maintain South China Sea (SCS) as zone of “peace, stability,and security”; Vietnamese govt 18 Nov released statement as chair of committee noting that they haddiscussed situation in SCS, “during which concerns were raised by some leaders”. Netherlands MFA 13Nov issued statement calling on EU to “express itself more often and more strongly on developments inthe South China Sea that violate the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea”. U.S. NationalSecurity Advisor Robert O’Brien 23 Nov reaf�rmed U.S. support to Philippines and Vietnam so as to“deter China”; China’s embassy in Manila 24 Nov criticised O’Brien’s remarks as re�ecting “Cold Warmentality and wantonly [inciting] confrontation”. Indonesia’s navy chief 23 Nov announced move ofnaval combat force (Guspurla) headquarters to Natuna islands from Indonesia’s capital Jakarta to betterprotect interests in SCS. Asia Maritime Transparency Institute 25 Nov reported that China Coast Guardship 5402 19 Nov harassed drilling rig in Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone, 44 nautical miles fromMalaysia’s Sarawak state; Royal Malaysian Navy ship KD Keris manoeuvred around 5402 near LuconiaShoals for several days.

NOVEMBER 2020

Thailand

Mass anti-govt protests continued with dozens injured as parliament rejected proposals forsubstantive constitutional change. House Speaker Chuan Leekpai 3 Nov said he had approached threeformer PMs to establish reconciliation committee, protest leaders next day dismissed committee as

NOVEMBER 2020



Europe & Central Asia

“farce”. In capital Bangkok, thousands of anti-govt protestors 8-18 Nov gathered in different locations,while hundreds of yellow-shirt royalists throughout month mobilised in demonstrations reportedlyorganised by interior ministry. As parliament 17 Nov debated seven bills on constitutional amendments,submitted separately by coalition govt, opposition MPs and civic group Internet Law Reform Dialogue,thousands of anti-govt protesters descended on parliament and clashed with police and royalist counter-demonstrators in most violent day of protests since July; dozens injured, including at least six whosuffered gunshot wounds. Lawmakers 18 Nov rejected draft amendments favoured by protesters andinstead approved two motions paving way for discussions on limited constitutional changes;parliamentary committee due to scrutinise two bills before second reading scheduled for Jan. PM Prayuth19 Nov said “all laws” would be brought to bear against protesters, raising possibility of activation ofdormant lèse-majesté law. Protest 25 Nov originally planned for Crown Property Bureau shifted to SiamCommercial Bank to highlight palace �nances; large protests took place 27, 28 and 29 Nov at Lad Phrao,Bangna and 11th Infantry Regiment, respectively. Police 24 Nov summoned 12 protest leaders to facecharges under lèse-majesté law. In deep south, gunmen 3 Nov shot and wounded senior navy of�cer inBacho district, Narathiwat; suspected insurgents 6 Nov killed Muslim rubber grower in Sri Sakhondistrict in Narathiwat; IED same day targeting teacher-protection unit exploded in Rangae district inNarathiwat; IED 15 Nov targeted rangers in Reusoh district in Narathiwat; rangers 17 Nov clashed withat least �ve suspected insurgents in Sai Buri district, Pattani. Motorcycle-borne gunmen 24 Nov shot andwounded man in Sai Buri district, and body of man shot to death discovered in coconut plantation inNong Chik district, Pattani; motorcycle gunmen same day shot and wounded soldier in Sai Buri.

Bosnia And Herzegovina

Ruling parties lost ground in local elections as country marked 25 years since Dayton peaceaccord. Local elections 15 Nov took place amid low turnout, at around 50 per cent; three ruling parties –Bosnian Serb Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, Bosnjak Party of Democratic Action and CroatDemocrat Union – lost some municipalities and key mayoral positions in largest cities while winningmajority of municipalities across country. Gunman 9 Nov killed convicted war criminal Marko Radic insouthern town of Mostar, suspect same day detained by police; Radic had been released from 21-yearprison sentence in Dec 2018, following controversial sentence reduction by Croatian court of initialconviction by Bosnian state court in 2011 for crimes against humanity against Bosniaks in Mostar area.Tensions 25 Nov publicly surfaced between Valentin Inzko, high representative of international bodyoverseeing Dayton peace accord, and Bosnian Serb chair of Bosnian presidency Milorad Dodik during UNroundtable event to mark 25th anniversary of peace accord; Inzko reportedly accused Dodik of abusingaccord and denying past war crimes.

NOVEMBER 2020



Kosovo

Amid ongoing tensions between Kosovo and Serbia, President Thaçi and three other formerKosovo Liberation Army (KLA) chiefs were indicted for serious international crimes. Hague-basedKosovo Specialist Prosecutor’s Of�ce 5 Nov con�rmed war crimes and crimes against humanityindictment against Thaçi and three other former KLA chiefs, including current MP and head ofopposition parliamentary group Vetevendosje, Rexhep Selimi, former parliament speaker and head ofintelligence service, Kadri Veseli, and Social Democratic Initiative (NISMA) party’s national councilchairman, Jakup Krasniqi. In response, Thaçi same day announced resignation citing need “to protectthe integrity” of presidency, passing position temporarily to Speaker of Assembly Vjosa Osmani inaccordance with constitution; Thaçi 9 Nov pleaded “not guilty” to war crimes and crimes againsthumanity charges. Specialist Prosecutor’s Of�ce 17 Nov released documents accusing those indicted ofattempting to interfere with potential prosecution witnesses ahead of trial. Meanwhile, acting PresidentVjosa Osmani 10 Nov said that dialogue with Serbia should be suspended due to war crime indictmentagainst former KLA chiefs-turned-politicians. PM Hoti 19 Nov met virtually with French PresidentMacron to discuss Kosovo-Serbia dialogue and visa liberalisation. Serbian President Vucic 21 Novrequested to visit Kosovo after 16 Nov discovery of mass grave near Serbian town of Raska next to borderwith Kosovo; Kosovo FM 25 Nov said Vucic would not be granted entry into country until he apologisedfor “genocide” against Kosovo citizens; Serbian govt next day said trip had been cancelled. Govt 20 Novsigned contract with EU for €26.5mn in �nancial support to counter impact of COVID-19.

NOVEMBER 2020

Eastern Mediterranean

Tensions between Greece and Turkey continued amid ongoing Turkish exploration activity.Exchange of conciliatory diplomatic statements between Greek PM Mitsotakis and Turkish PresidentErdoğan following deadly 30 Oct earthquake off Samos island proved short-lived as Ankara 31 Oct and 11Nov issued new advisories extending exploration activities of seismic survey vessel Oruç Reis incontested waters. Greek MFA 11 Nov condemned activities, saying they violated “international law of thesea and [are] undermining peace and stability in the region”; Turkish MFA same day responded thatGreek statements were “based on Greece’s maximalist maritime boundary claims”. Greece and Republicof Cyprus continued to demand harsh EU sanctions against Turkish actions in eastern Mediterraneanahead of European Council summit scheduled for 10-11 Dec; EU Parliament 26 Nov passed non-bindingresolution requesting EU leaders to “take actions and impose tough sanctions” on Ankara; Turkish MFAnext day called parliament “disconnected from reality”. Turkey 30 Nov pulled back Oruç Reis after itcompleted exploration mission in disputed maritime zones south of Kastellorizo off the Turkish coast.Meanwhile, military exercises on both sides continued throughout month. During 11-12 Nov visit toGreece’s capital Athens, Egyptian President Sisi declared Egypt “will stand by Greece and in favour of itsrights”. Defence ministers of Greece, Israel and Republic of Cyprus 12 Nov agreed to deepen military and

NOVEMBER 2020



security ties, speci�cally regarding joint training programs, intelligence sharing and cybersecurity.Greece and United Arab Emirates 23 Nov signed security agreement which includes mutual defenceclause, obligating each country to help other if its territorial integrity is threatened. Egypt, Greece andthe Republic of Cyprus announced plans to conduct joint military drills in eastern Mediterranean earlyDec.

Armenia

Violent protests erupted after PM Pashinyan signed Russian-brokered cease�re agreement to enddeadly �ghting with Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) con�ict zone. After Azerbaijani govt 8Nov announced capture of Shusha, strategically signi�cant city in NK, PM Pashinyan 10 Nov signedRussian-brokered cease�re agreement with Russian President Putin and Azerbaijani President Aliyev;deal stipulates that Azerbaijan retain captured territories, including Shusha, while Armenia must handover control of three adjacent areas – Agdam, Kelbajar and Lachin districts – with Russian peacekeepersbeing deployed to remaining Armenian-controlled parts of NK. PM Pashinyan 10 Nov publiclyannounced cease�re, defending decision by saying army and de facto NK authorities had insisted onsigning agreement. Announcement prompted national outcry as public had been largely unaware of direrealities of ongoing con�ict: thousands 10-11 Nov gathered in Republican Square in capital Yerevan,with hundreds storming PM’s of�ce, parliament and other buildings, and protesters brutally beatingparliament speaker. Scuf�es 11 Nov took place between police and protesters in Freedom Square; policearrested six people for alleged illegal organisation of mass protests and attempt to overthrowconstitutional order. Representatives of 17 opposition parties called for Pashinyan to step down,accusing him of heavy concessions in cease�re deal, and 12-18 Nov organised series of demonstrationsin Yerevan and other cities; National Security Service (NSS) of Armenia 14 Nov arrested three oppositionmembers, including leader of Homeland opposition party and former NSS director Artur Vanetsian, ongrounds of alleged attempt to overthrow Pashinyan and violating martial law rules (in place since late-Sept); both were released from custody day after arrest. In response to protests. Senior govt and partyof�cials resigned, including FM and deputy FM 10 Nov and PM’s special envoy 16 Nov, and �ve rulingparty members left party or gave up parliamentary mandate in same week. President Armen Sarkissian16 Nov called for Pashinyan to resign and snap elections; Pashinyan, however, 18 Nov refused to stepdown and responded with six-month action plan designed to ensure country’s stability; based onPashinyan’s proposal, Sarkissian same day appointed Ara Ayvazyan as FM and 20 Nov VagharshakHarutyunyan as new defence minister.

NOVEMBER 2020

Azerbaijan NOVEMBER 2020



Following deadly �ghting with Armenia throughout Oct in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) con�ict zone,Azerbaijan signed Russian-brokered cease�re agreement. Govt 8 Nov announced capture of Shusha,strategically signi�cant city in NK. Two days later, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed Russian-brokeredcease�re agreement along with Russian President Putin; President Aliyev 10 Nov called deal “gloriousvictory” amid celebrations nationwide. Deal stipulates that Azerbaijan retain captured territories,including Shusha, while Armenia must hand over control of three adjacent areas – Agdam, Kelbajar andLachin districts (see Nagorno-Karabakh). Despite cease�re deal only stipulating deployment of 2,000Russian peacekeepers, govt 11 and 16 Nov also called for stationing of Turkish peacekeepers in NK;Turkish parliament 17 Nov overwhelmingly approved bill to deploy peacekeepers to Azerbaijan tomonitor cease�re deal.

Georgia

Ruling party won landslide parliamentary election victory, prompting widespread oppositionprotests. Following �rst round of parliamentary elections late Oct, results early Nov showed rulingGeorgian Dream party won overwhelming majority, gaining 74 seats in new parliament; eight oppositionparties collectively won 60 seats, and former ruling United National Movement party received 36 seats.Ahead of of�cial results, all opposition parties 1 Nov declared boycott of parliament, citing issues withballot count; however, international monitoring mission led by Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe same day stated that “fundamental freedoms were respected” in election; severallocal observers demanded vote recounts, several of which took place, but no results suggested ballotmanipulation. As opposition and civil society leaders publicly voiced grave concerns, head of CentralElection Commission 3 Nov alleged that most confusion over ballot count came from new regulationallowing COVID-19 patients to vote from places of self-isolation. Opposition 8 Nov held mass protest inTbilisi’s central avenue, marching toward Election Commission; scuf�es between riot police andprotesters injured at least 19, mainly police. Amid opposition boycott of second round of parliamentaryelections held 21 Nov, ruling Georgian Dream party secured victory in 13 single-seat constituencies,acquiring majority and allowing party to form new govt without alliances with opposition parties. U.S.Sec State Pompeo 18 Nov visited Georgia to meet ruling party of�cials. In Abkhazia, de facto leaderAslan Bzhania 14 Nov met with Russian President Putin in Sochi, Russia, to discuss plans for economicand pandemic-related cooperation; as of 27 Nov, entity recorded 5,798 cases, at least 79 coronavirusdeaths and almost 2,127 active cases.

NOVEMBER 2020



Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Following deadly �ghting throughout Oct in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) con�ict zone, Azerbaijanand Armenia signed Russian-brokered cease�re agreement recognising Azerbaijani gains. Govt 8Nov announced capture of Shusha, strategically signi�cant city in NK; Armenian side 10 Nov signedRussian-brokered cease�re agreement with Russian President Putin and Azerbaijani President Aliyev.Deal stipulates that Azerbaijan retain captured territories, including Shusha, while Armenia must handover control of three adjacent areas – Agdam, Kelbajar and Lachin districts – by 15 Nov, 25 Nov and 1Dec, respectively; deal also called for deployment of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers as well as return ofinternally displaced persons and refugees to NK and surrounding territories with support of UN HighCommissioner for Refugees; deal did not include provisions to ensure safe evacuation of ethnicArmenians wishing to leave NK con�ict zone and adjacent territories, nor to protect those staying.Announcement of deal sparked unrest in Armenia, with thousands 10-11 Nov taking to streets andhundreds storming govt buildings in Armenia’s capital Yerevan and calling for Pashinyan’s resignation(see Armenia entry); Azerbaijani President Aliyev 10 Nov called deal “glorious victory” amid celebrationsnationwide. Russia 10 Nov launched deployment of peacekeeping troops and national aid agencies toNK, while Armenian army commenced removal of troops from adjacent territories. Azerbaijan regainedcontrol of Agdam district 20 Nov and Kelbajar 25 Nov. Despite deal only citing Russian peacekeepers,Azerbaijani govt 11 and 16 Nov called for stationing of Turkish peacekeepers in NK. Russian and Turkishdefence ministers 12 Nov signed memorandum for establishment of joint monitoring centre inAzerbaijan; Russian govt 10 Nov stated that there was no agreement on positioning Turkishpeacekeepers in NK. Turkish parliament 17 Nov overwhelmingly approved bill to deploy troops toAzerbaijan for peacekeeping mission to monitor cease�re deal. Russian defence ministry 19 Novcon�rmed establishment of 23 observation points around NK; also reported that around 23,510 peoplereturned to Russian-controlled NK area by 28 Nov.

PODCAST: Ethnicity and Con�ict in Myanmar

NOVEMBER 2020

Russia (Internal)

Mass protests continued in Far East. Mass demonstrations continued unabated in Khabarovsk city inSouth East to protest July arrest of former local governor and member of nationalist Liberal DemocraticParty of Russia Sergei Furgal; protests held on 7, 14 and 21 Nov despite acting Khabarovsk governorMikhail Degtyarev 6 Nov introducing new COVID-19 measures, including ban on mass gatherings. Police6-16 Nov detained at least six journalists and bloggers who covered protests. Meanwhile, MoscowDistrict Court 25 Nov extended Furgal’s detention until 9 March 2021.

NOVEMBER 2020


https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/ethnicity-and-conflict-myanmar



Russia/U.S.

U.S. formally withdrew from Open Skies treaty. After announcing its intention to withdraw in May,U.S. 22 Nov formally withdrew from Open Skies treaty – multilateral accord permitting signatories toundertake non-military reconnaissance �ights over other countries – citing Russian imposition of limitsin violation of treaty; Russia 22 Nov vowed tough response if remaining parties share information withU.S. In rare incident, Moscow 24 Nov accused U.S. Navy destroyer of violating its maritime border in Seaof Japan as Russian destroyer threatened to ram U.S. ship; U.S. rejected claim it had been expelled fromarea.

NOVEMBER 2020

Belarus

Mass protests continued throughout month following disputed Aug presidential elections.Thousands of people throughout month demonstrated in capital Minsk, demanding PresidentLukashenka’s resignation as police used teargas, water cannons and rubber bullets to disperse protesters;police 8 Nov arrested record 1,000 people who participated in mass demonstrations across country.Opposition supporter and children’s art teacher Raman Bandarenka 12 Nov died in hospital after plain-clothed security forces previous day detained and reportedly beat him at opposition rallying point“Square of Changes” in Minsk; govt 13 Nov denied responsibility for Bandarenka’s death, claiming it wasresult of street brawl. Thousands 12-15 Nov gathered in Bandarenka’s memory, forming human chainsand marching on streets; police 15 Nov used teargas and water cannons to disperse protesters. Hundredsof retirees 23 Nov protested against Lukashenka in Minsk, holding portraits of Bandarenka; more than1,000 pensioners 30 Nov also gathered in capital as police detained a dozen. Belarus opposition leaderSvyatlana Tsikhanouskaya 1 Nov called on EU to step up sanctions against Lukashenka regime. UK FMDominic Raab 5 Nov called for fresh presidential elections in Belarus, following independent reportcon�rming that Aug election was “falsi�ed” and exposing human rights violations committed byLukashenka regime; govt 9 Nov expelled from Belarus two British diplomats who observed Sunday streetprotests in Minsk; UK next day retaliated by expelling two Belarus diplomats. EU 13 Nov warned that itcould expand its sanctions on Lukashenka following Bandarenka’s death, describing Belarus authorities’actions as “outrageous and shameful”. Lukashenka 27 Nov said he will resign when new constitution isadopted.

NOVEMBER 2020



Ukraine

Kyiv proposed new peace plan to Trilateral Contact Group (TCG), while July cease�re largely heldin Donbas con�ict zone. Ukrainian TCG representatives 5 Nov proposed new “Joint Steps plan” todemilitarise con�ict zone in early 2021, allow Kyiv to regain control of eastern border and subsequentlyhold local elections on 31 March; newly-integrated areas would be offered special economic zone statusfor 30 years. Russian TCG representative Gryzlov 11 Nov called plan “another attempt to deceive people”,while Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (D/LPR) de facto authorities 20 Nov rebuffed it as“awkward attempt to rewrite Minsk agreements”, given that Minsk agreement states elections mustprecede Kyiv regaining control. Separately, TCG representatives 4 Nov agreed on four newdisengagement areas in Donbas con�ict zone: near Hryhorivka in Donetsk region, as well asSlovyanoserbsk, Petrivka and Nyzhnoteple villages in Luhansk region. In Donbas con�ict zone, Julycease�re largely held except for small �are-ups with military casualties on both sides; sniper �re 24 Novkilled one govt soldier in Donetsk region according to Ukrainian of�cials, while DPR armed groups lost atleast two �ghters on 6 Nov. Both sides sustained non-live-�re casualties throughout month, including�ve Ukrainian soldiers and �ve Russian-backed �ghters; remnant explosives injured four civilians 10, 12Nov. Govt 10 Nov reopened all Donbas checkpoints and introduced two new crossings for civilians acrossfront line in Luhansk region; however, many corresponding crossings remained closed, preventingcivilians from using them. Political crisis continued over Constitutional Court’s Oct decision to overturnkey provisions in anti-corruption legislation; President Zelenskyy 1 Nov said forces behind decision were“a coalition of Russian proxies and some prominent Ukrainian oligarchs”; parliament 18 Nov establishedworking group aimed at resolving crisis by 1 Dec. Authorities 25 Nov reported record daily number of15,331 new COVID-19 cases after govt 13 Nov introduced weekend quarantine. De-facto republicsreported modest rise in cases; mortality rate higher in LPR (about 8%) and DPR (about 10%) compared togovt controlled areas (1.7%).

NOVEMBER 2020

Cyprus

UN convened preliminary talks between Cypriot leaders while Turkish drilling activity continuedto fuel tensions. Following Oct victory of two-state solution advocate Ersin Tatar in “Turkish Republicof Northern Cyprus” (TRNC) elections, head of UN mission in Cyprus Elizabeth Spehar 3 Nov organisedpreliminary meeting between Tatar and Republic of Cyprus President Anastasiades; both sides“expressed their determination to positively respond to the UN Secretary-General’s commitment toexplore the possibility to convene an informal �ve-plus-UN meeting”; �ve-member format includesGreece, Turkey, UK and both Cypriot communities. During visit to “TRNC” celebrating 37th anniversary

NOVEMBER 2020



of declaration of independence, Turkish President Erdoğan 15 Nov said that “a two-state solution mustbe discussed and negotiated on the basis of sovereign equality”, as opposed to federal solution; Erdoğanalso visited Varosha/Maraş town following partial reopening of its beachfront in Oct, prompting Republicof Cyprus presidency same day to say move could “torpedo the prospects for the creation of theappropriate climate” for UN talks to resume. Amid ongoing tensions related to hydrocarbon explorationin region (see Eastern Mediterranean), Turkey continued survey activity off south-western coast ofCyprus; Ankara 3 Nov extended exploration activities of Barbaros Hayreddin Paşa ship until 16 Feb 2021and 13 Nov announced drillship Yavuz would resume its operations in contested waters around Cyprus.

Turkey

Military operations continued against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south-eastern Turkeyand northern Iraq; authorities arrested dozens of suspected jihadists. In south east, military carriedout small-scale operations concentrated largely in rural areas of Bitlis and Hatay provinces; PKKmilitants 4 Nov killed three state construction workers in Hakkari’s Derecik district. In northern Iraq, airraids targeting PKK positions continued throughout month; defence ministry 17 Nov announcednational intelligence agency “neutralised” İrfan Akcan, PKK’s so-called “customs of�cer” in Iraq’s Sinjardistrict, who Turkey claimed was responsible for organising arms transfers between north-eastern Syriaand northern Iraq (see Iraq). Govt continued efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’Democratic Party (HDP): police detained more than 100 HDP of�cials and members during month,including party’s provincial co-chairs in Diyarbakır province. Govt continued operations targetingIslamic State (ISIS) throughout month; notably, police detained over 300 individuals for alleged links toISIS, including 19 ISIS-linked suspects in Adana city 9 Nov for allegedly plotting attacks against securityforces and abductions of politicians, high-ranking bureaucrats, businessmen and tourists. Meanwhile,tensions with Greece and Republic of Cyprus remained high (see Eastern Mediterranean), and parliament17 Nov overwhelmingly approved bill to deploy troops to Azerbaijan for peacekeeping mission followingAzerbaijani-Armenia cease�re deal (see Nagorno-Karabakh). COVID-19 outbreak reached unprecedentedlevels and put additional strain on Turkey’s economy; govt 30 Nov announced 31,219 new daily cases.

NOVEMBER 2020

Kazakhstan

Opposition parties mobilised to boycott Jan 2021 parliamentary elections. Hundreds of oppositionDemocratic Party supporters 14 Nov held rally in Almaty city to call for boycott of Jan 2021parliamentary elections, in second opposition demonstration permitted by authorities since law was

NOVEMBER 2020



amended in May. All-National Social Democratic Party 27 Nov announced boycott of parliamentary voteduring party conference, citing continued dominance by “the same political parties”. Meanwhile, govtcontinued to target opposition and civil society �gures. Petropavl City Court in north 2 Nov sentencedopposition Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan activist Nurbol Onerkhan to one year of freedom limitationon charges of involvement in “extremist group”; Court also banned Onerkhan from any social or politicalactivity. In line with Nur-Sultan court order on 19 Nov, police 23 Nov forcibly admitted journalist andgovt critic Aigul Otepova to psychiatric clinic, reportedly for involvement in Democratic Choice ofKazakhstan opposition movement, labelled as extremist group by govt; Otepova was under house arrestsince Sept. NGO Human Rights Watch 18 Nov said Otepova was “being prosecuted solely for the peacefulexpression of her views”, urged govt to release her immediately.

Kyrgyzstan

Govt’s proposed constitutional changes to strengthen presidential powers ahead of presidentialelection in Jan 2021 sparked political backlash. Acting President and PM Japarov 14 Nov resigned tobecome eligible in upcoming presidential elections scheduled for 10 Jan 2021; parliament chair TalantMamytov same day took over as acting president, with Artyom Novikom as PM. Shortly after, govt 17 Novreleased constitutional draft widening presidential powers, creating new executive body and congress,and reducing parliament size from 120 to 90 lawmakers. Proposal sparked wave of criticism; notably,former PM Feliks Kulov 18 Nov said changes sought to secure “absolute power for the president” whileformer President Roza Otunbayeva 20 Nov warned that proposal may violate international law. NGOHuman Rights Watch 21 Nov said constitutional changes “signi�cantly erode checks and balances on theexecutive” and that caretaker parliament did not have proper legitimacy to undertake them. Hundreds 22Nov marched peacefully in capital Bishkek to protest against proposed constitutional changes. Japarov24 Nov defended draft constitution and called for national referendum on proposed amendments to takeplace alongside presidential elections. Meanwhile, preparations continued for presidential andparliamentary elections postponed until 2021. Following approval by lawmakers last month, then PMJaparov 11 Nov signed amendments to electoral law, lowering vote threshold for political parties to enterparliament from 7% to 3% and reducing candidate registration fee. Parliament chair Kanatbek Isaev 4Nov announced resignation to join presidential race; parliament same day voted in Talant Mamytov toreplace Isaev. Constitutional Chamber 2 Nov announced it would reconsider appeal challengingamendment adopted last month that postponed parliamentary elections until 2021.

NOVEMBER 2020

Uzbekistan NOVEMBER 2020



Latin America & Caribbean

Regional court launched trial of people involved in violent unrest in Sokh exclave in May.Ferghana regional court in east 9 Nov started trial of 22 people on charges of blocking of�cials fromcarrying out security duties; defendants were involved in mass unrest in Sokh exclave withinneighbouring Kyrgyzstan in May, where clashes between Sokh and Kyrgyz Kadamjai district residentsover water dispute left several injured.

Colombia

Armed groups’ attempts to consolidate territorial control took heavy toll on civilians, notablyalong Paci�c coast and border with Venezuela. In Norte de Santander (north east) and Antioquia(north west) departments, spate of attacks 3 Nov killed seven people, including two prominent humanrights activists; unidenti�ed armed assailants night of 21-22 Nov killed ten coffee pickers in Betaniamunicipality, Antioquia. In Cauca department (south west), �ghting between National Liberation Army(ELN) guerillas and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident group Frente CarlosPatiño early Nov con�ned around 300 people in López de Micay municipality; unidenti�ed armed groupnight of 21-22 Nov killed at least �ve civilians in Argelia municipality. In Chocó department (west),�ghting between army and ELN early to mid-Nov displaced over 250 families and con�ned 1,400 peoplein Docordó municipality. Army 16 Nov claimed to have killed Emiliano Alcides Osorio Macea, leader ofCaparros, splinter group of Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia (AGC, one of country’s main drugtraf�cking groups), in Tarazá municipality, Antioquia. Meanwhile, several hundred former FARCcombatants and their supporters 1 Nov took to streets in capital Bogotá, after converging from variousregions, to call for govt protection from targeted killings. In letter to former President Santos, formerFARC commander Rodrigo Londoño 2 Nov said FARC was responsible for several assassination attemptson former VP Germán Vargas Lleras. Thousands 19 Nov gathered in countries’ main cities, includingBogotá and second-largest city Medellín, to protest against govt’s social and economic policies anddemand improved health care and education.

NOVEMBER 2020

Venezuela NOVEMBER 2020



Govt pressed ahead with preparations for 6 Dec legislative elections amid opposition’s boycottcalls. Campaign for legislative elections started 3 Nov with little popular interest as non-participation ofopposition parties grossly limited political options, guaranteeing govt candidates would prevail.Opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s team 13 Nov said “popular consultation” on rejection of 6 Dec vote assham and approval of opposition’s strategy of “national and international pressure” on PresidentMaduro would take place virtually 7-12 Dec and in person 12 Dec. Following U.S. presidential election 3Nov, both Maduro and Guaidó 7 Nov congratulated President-elect Joe Biden; Maduro expressed hope ofresuming dialogue with U.S., while Guaidó called on Biden to help restore “democracy and freedom” inVenezuela. Biden, who will take of�ce in Jan, vowed during campaign to set aside incumbent PresidentTrump’s hardline approach of isolating Maduro and allies, including implicit threat of possible militaryintervention, known as “maximum pressure” policy. Court 26 Nov sentenced six Venezuelans working forU.S. oil company CITGO – who have been imprisoned in Venezuela for three years – to between ten and13-year prison terms on charges of corruption; U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo next day criticised move andcalled for immediate release of jailed individuals. International Criminal Court Chief Prosecutor FatouBensouda 4 Nov said there was “a reasonable basis” to believe crimes falling under court’s jurisdictionhad been committed in Venezuela since 2017 anti-govt protests, requested information on legalproceedings undertaken in Venezuela against alleged perpetrators. Amid COVID-19 pandemic andeconomic downturn, social unrest persisted over access to basic commodities, notably gas, electricity anddrinking water. Hundreds of teachers and health workers 4 Nov protested in capital Caracas to demandbetter wages and working conditions.

Guatemala

State budget for 2021 sparked unrest; hurricane killed dozens. Congress 18 Nov approvedcontroversial 2021 budget, including substantial reduction in funding of Human Rights Ombudsman andjudiciary, as well as several social and health programs. Thousands 21 Nov demonstrated against budgetin capital Guatemala City and other cities, with small group of protesters breaking into Congress andsetting �re to parts of building; police �red tear gas to disperse protesters, injuring 22 and detaining 37.Protests continued in following days in Guatemala City, prompting Congress speaker to withdraw bill 25Nov. President Giammattei 22 Nov dismissed protests as coup attempt by minority groups, and govtsame day requested Organization of American States (OAS) to help facilitate dialogue between politicalforces; OAS sent delegation 27 Nov. Some 2,000 people 28 Nov attended further protests in GuatemalaCity, demanding Giammattei and Congress representatives who approved budget resign. Govt 23-27 Novarrested 40 members of MS-13 and 18th Street gangs in U.S.-backed anti-organised crime operationsthroughout country. After hurricane Eta made landfall 3 Nov, and storm Iota caused �ooding mid-month, govt’s disaster agency 17-19 Nov reported total of 57 dead, 96 missing and 1.3mn affected.

REPORT: Virus-proof Violence: Crime and COVID-19 in Mexico and the Northern Triangle

NOVEMBER 2020


https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/83-virus-proof-violence-crime-and-covid-19-mexico-and-northern-triangle



Honduras

Response to hurricanes consumed govt and political tensions persisted ahead of 2021 generalelections. Hurricanes Eta and Iota made landfall 4 and 16 Nov respectively, causing widespreaddestruction. Govt’s disaster agency 16 and 22 Nov reported 92 dead and more than 4mn affected in total.Local NGO FOSDEH 19 Nov said economic losses amount to $10bn. Govt 9 Nov created secretariat oftransparency, tasked with preventing mismanagement of disaster relief funding; civil society groups andNational Anticorruption Council 10 Nov called move unconstitutional and argued it undermines existinganti-corruption institutions. Prosecutor’s of�ce 10 Nov opened investigation into alleged overvaluationof aid kits for hurricane victims. Political violence and tensions continued. Ahead of general electionsplanned for 2021, unidenti�ed gunmen 6 Nov killed mayoral candidate af�liated with ruling NationalParty, Terry Geston Martínez, in Puerto Lempira, Gracias a Dios department (east). Politicaldisagreements continued to slow down approval of new electoral law, with 200 of 333 articles approvedby Congress as of 25 Nov; second presidential term and creation of second round in presidential electionamong main sticking points. Govt 23-27 Nov arrested 75 members of MS-13 and 18th Street gangs and�ve police of�cers across country in U.S.-backed anti-organised crime operations.


NOVEMBER 2020

El Salvador

Tensions between President Bukele’s govt on one hand and Legislative Assembly and judiciary onthe other persisted, particularly regarding overall COVID-19 response. Bukele 12 Nov vetoed lawregulating COVID-19 response, which Legislative Assembly passed in Oct, but assembly same dayrati�ed law regardless; law must be approved by Supreme Court to enter into force. Meanwhile, tensionsbetween executive and judiciary persisted. As part of Attorney General’s Of�ce and InternationalCommission against Impunity in El Salvador’s joint investigation into suspected irregularities inpurchase of COVID-19-related supplies, prosecutors 9-10 Nov raided 20 govt of�ces; police temporarilyblocked prosecutors from entering health ministry headquarters. Chair of U.S. House Foreign AffairsCommittee Eliot Engel next day called on Salvadoran police not to interfere with investigations. AttorneyGeneral’s Of�ce 10 Nov requested that Legislative Assembly lift immunity of national police chief overalleged breach of duties for failing to force �nance minister to appear before Legislative Assembly 2 Oct,after several no-shows. Bukele supporters 30 Nov surrounded for several hours headquarters of SupremeElectoral Tribunal in capital San Salvador to press tribunal to accept ruling party of�cials’ candidacies formayoral and legislative elections scheduled for Feb 2021 after it suspended their registration based onConstitutional Court’s ruling. Justice efforts related to 1979-1992 civil war continued to falter: judgeinvestigating 1981 El Mozote massacre, in which army is accused of killing around 1,000 civilians, 9 Nov

NOVEMBER 2020





requested that Attorney General investigate whether Bukele and Defence Minister René Merino Monroyhad issued orders to block judicial inspection of military archives; move follows judge being repeatedlyprevented by army from examining military archives in recent weeks. Govt 23-27 Nov arrested 572members of MS-13 and 18th Street gangs throughout country in U.S.-backed anti-organised crimeoperations.


Nicaragua

Authorities continued to pass repressive laws and harass opposition. Following Oct “foreignagents” and “cybercrime” bills, govt-controlled National Assembly 10 Nov approved constitutionalamendment to allow life sentences for hate crimes; human rights group Nunca Más immediatelydenounced move designed to “persecute opponents”. Govt crackdown on opposition continued. Police 1Nov raided opposition platform National Coalition (NC) meeting in Matagalpa city (centre) and 8 Novreportedly prevented several NC leaders from leaving their homes to attend commemorations for killedprotesters and political prisoners in various cities including Jinotepe, Carazo department (centre). U.S. 9Nov sanctioned former President Arnoldo Alemán (1997-2002) for corruption, including“misappropriating millions of dollars of public funds for the bene�t of himself and members of hisfamily” during his time in of�ce, barring him and his family from entering U.S.. Hurricanes Eta and Iota,latter being most powerful ever recorded in country, made landfall 3 and 16 Nov respectively; VP Murillo17 Nov said over 48,000 had been displaced, next day reported 16 deaths; meanwhile, residents in PeñasBlancas Massif area, Jinotega department (north) said at least 30 died in landslide 17 Nov. Financeminister 24 Nov reported 3mn people affected by hurricanes and estimated economic damage at $742mn.

NOVEMBER 2020

Haiti

Insecurity remained high and political tensions increased over govt’s plan to reform constitution.Thousands 5 Nov demonstrated in capital Port-au-Prince against insecurity after rape and murder offemale student, whose body was found 1 Nov in Delmas commune near Port-au-Prince; police used teargas to disperse crowd. Police 9 Nov said three men had confessed to murder, including one whom G9coalition of gangs had handed over to police 4 Nov. UN Integrated Of�ce in Haiti 4 Nov said it was “veryconcerned about worsening security situation” including attacks by “armed gangs against thepopulation”. Meanwhile, opposition party CPHREN 11 Nov rejected govt’s attempts to reform

NOVEMBER 2020





constitution before legislative elections scheduled for March 2021, citing lack of cross-party agreement;move followed President Jovenel Moïse’s 30 Oct appointment of advisory committee to draft newconstitution, which would then be submitted to referendum for approval. Several hundred anti-govtprotesters under leadership of opposition party Pitit Desalin’s chairman Jean-Charles Moïse 18 Novgathered in Tabarre commune near Port-au-Prince, calling for president to resign and U.S. to withdrawits support; police cracked down on protesters, reportedly killing one and injuring two others. Govt 11Nov declared “red alert” amid rise in COVID-19 cases.

Mexico

Criminal violence remained high while previous administrations faced new accusations ofcorruption and criminal activity. Armed group violence continued unabated, notably in Guanajuatostate (centre), where Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel (SRLC) and Jalisco Cartel New Generation (CJNG)compete for territory and oil siphoning; scores of bodies were discovered in clandestine burial sites,including 76 in Salvatierra city 20 Oct-11 Nov and 45 in Cortázar municipality 1 Nov. Unidenti�edgunmen killed journalists Jesús Alfonso Piñuelas in Cajeme municipality, Sonora state (north) 2 Nov andIsrael Vázquez in Salamanca city, Guanajuato 9 Nov. Hundreds 9 Nov demonstrated against femicidesand gender-based violence in Cancún city, Quintana Roo state (south east), after dismembered body of20-year-old member of feminist movement was found in city previous day; police reportedly �red liverounds at protesters attempting to force entry into city hall, wounding at least two; use of force triggeredfurther demonstrations in capital Mexico City and Chiapas state in following days. Previousadministrations continued to face accusations of corruption and criminal activities. Army captain 11 Novhanded himself over to authorities after judge ordered his detention for alleged links with criminalorganisation Guerreros Unidos, suspected of involvement in 2014 disappearance of 43 Ayotzinapateaching college students. Reforma newspaper 12 Nov published internal document from AttorneyGeneral’s Of�ce which accused former President Peña Nieto of having run criminal structure to in�uenceelections and accepted bribes during his time in of�ce. Mexican and U.S. Attorney Generals 17 Novjointly announced that U.S. would drop drug traf�cking charges against former Defence Minister GeneralSalvador Cienfuegos so he could be investigated in Mexico instead; Mexico govt had raised objectionsover his arrest in U.S. in Oct, citing national security considerations; Cienfuegos returned to Mexico nextday. Govt 27 Nov issued arrest warrant for corruption and began to seek extradition of former PublicSecurity Minister Genaro García Luna, currently awaiting trial in U.S. on charges of collaborating withSinaloa Cartel.


NOVEMBER 2020





Middle East & North Africa

Peru

President’s impeachment sparked deadly protest, largest in decades. Congress 9 Nov voted toremove President Martín Vizcarra from of�ce following allegations of corruption during his time asgovernor of Moquegua region (2011-2014); next day swore in Congress head Manuel Merino as interimpresident amid protests, as thousands took to streets in capital Lima, disputing legality of procedure andclaiming Vizcarra’s impeachment was manoeuvre by MPs who could be affected by his anti-corruptionreforms; riot police used tear gas to keep protesters away from Congress building. In following days,protests spread to other cities, notably Trujillo and Cusco. Thousands 14 Nov gathered again in Lima inlargest demonstration in decades; clashes between police and protesters left two protesters dead anddozens injured. Merino resigned 15 Nov. Congress next day elected centrist congressman FranciscoSagasti as new interim president. Sagasti 23 Nov announced creation of commission to reform police,named new police chief and removed 18 senior police of�cers suspected of using excessive force in recentprotests.

NOVEMBER 2020

Israel/Palestine

Israel bolstered de facto annexation of West Bank settlements, and Palestinian Authority (PA)resumed security cooperation with Israel. In largest demolition in West Bank in years, Israeli forces 4Nov bulldozed entire Palestinian village of Khirbet Humsa, rendering homeless more than 71Palestinians. Authorities 9 Nov issued eviction notices to dozens of Palestinian businesses in Wadi al-Jozarea of East Jerusalem. Israel’s ministry of housing opened tender for the construction of over 1,200housing units in Givat HaMatos in Jerusalem in move poised to sever geographic contiguity betweenJerusalem and West Bank. Israeli forces 4 Nov killed off-duty Palestinian security forces of�cer in Nablus;soldiers 25 Nov shot and killed Palestinian allegedly attempting to ram car into checkpoint nearJerusalem. U.S. Sec State Pompeo 19 Nov made �rst visit by top U.S. diplomat to Israel’s West Banksettlements; signalling increased support for Israel, he announced foodstuffs originating from Area C inoccupied West Bank would carry “Made in Israel” label and U.S. would de�ne Boycott, Divestment, andSanctions movement as anti-Semitic. PA 17 Nov announced resumption of security coordination withIsrael in occupied territories following May suspension due to prospective de jure annexation; PAjusti�ed move by citing Israeli letter signalling commitment to past agreements, including Oslo; PLO 11Nov con�rmed willingness to resume peace talks with mediation of new U.S. administration. In Gaza,unidenti�ed groups 15, 21 Nov �red rockets into Israel; Israeli air force retaliated with strikes in Gazacity and Khan Younis. Hamas and Fatah delegations 3-16 Nov met in Egypt’s capital Cairo to discuss

NOVEMBER 2020



reconciliation. Meanwhile, Israel continued diplomatic normalisation efforts: Israel and Bahrain 18 Noventered negotiations over opening of mutual embassies; PM Netanyahu 22 Nov reportedly met CrownPrince bin Salman in visit to Saudi Arabia. Israel and Lebanon 11 Nov held third round of negotiationsover maritime border delineation. Israeli air force 18 Nov killed three in airstrikes on Syrian army andIranian Quds Force installations in Syria in retaliation for explosives allegedly planted on Israeli-occupied Golan Heights by Iran-linked forces.

Lebanon

Formation of new cabinet remained stalled while Central Bank audit delays further hamperedprogress toward necessary reforms. PM-designate Hariri – whom lawmakers nominated last month toform new govt – struggled throughout month to overcome disputes over allocation of executiveportfolios: major Christian parties sought to nominate Christian ministers while Hariri 13 Nov calledHizbollah “a big obstacle” to creating govt of “independent experts” as group remained opposed to hisleadership. Citing banking secrecy laws, Central Bank governor Riyad Salameh 2 Nov refused to submitdocuments to U.S.-based company Alvarez & Marsal conducting Central Bank audit, although audit isnecessary prerequisite for bailout talks to resume with International Monetary Fund (IMF). FinanceMinister Ghazi Wazni 5 Nov extended deadline for document submission by three months; Alvarez &Marsal 20 Nov, however, terminated its contract citing lack of transparency. Parliament 27 Nov renewedcommitment to undertake forensic audit of Central Bank. Further complicating process, U.S. 6 Novsanctioned Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil – President Aoun’s son-in-law and heir-apparent – for corruption under Global Magnitsky Act in highest-pro�le round of designations to date;Bassil 17 Nov vowed to quit politics if found guilty of corruption. With international assistancedependent on elusive institutional reform, French Middle East envoy Patrick Durel 13 Nov met withAoun to urge speedy govt formation to release �nancial support from IMF; France 28 Nov scheduled newinternational donor conference for early Dec. Meanwhile, unidenti�ed assailants 13 Nov in�ltratedByblos mosque, injuring local sheikh; some 100 people next day protested downtown in capital Tripoli todenounce attack. At least 270 Syrian families 27 Nov left Bsharri town amid reprisal attacks followingmurder allegedly committed by Syrian. Internationally, Israeli military 10 Nov claimed downing ofHizbollah drone allegedly violating Israeli airspace; Lebanese and Israeli delegations next day held thirdround of UN-mediated maritime border delineation talks in southern town of Naqoura.

BRIEFING: Avoiding Further Polarisation in Lebanon

NOVEMBER 2020

Syria NOVEMBER 2020


https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/lebanon/b81-avoiding-further-polarisation-lebanon



Tensions continued to mount in Idlib, Islamic State (ISIS) launched series of attacks and clashesbroke out between govt forces and local �ghters. In north west, amid rising tensions with Russiafollowing last month’s military escalation, Turkish troops 8-10 Nov withdrew from Marhatat post onAleppo-Damascus road and Anadan post in Aleppo governorate, citing Russian harassment of resupplyconvoys and regime-led protests outside posts; Turkish military 2-21 Nov forti�ed position in Jabal al-Zawiya mountain near M4 highway. Regime forces 8-9 Nov shelled Turkish positions in Jabal al-Zawiyaand Saraqib city. Regime shelling of rebel-held areas also persisted, 4 Nov killing at least seven in markedescalation; rebels same day killed three in apparent retaliation. In sign of continuing crackdown on rivalgroups, rebel group Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham 3 Nov stormed Ahrar al-Sham headquarters in Jabal al-Zawiya,Idlib governorate (northwest). Meanwhile, ISIS attacks on Turkish-controlled Aleppo governorateincreased: ISIS 4 Nov claimed IED explosion that killed Turkish-backed group Faylaq al-Sham soldier inal-Bab city; ISIS 7 Nov detonated IED in al-Bab, killing three policemen. In north east, in Hasakahprovince, ISIS 1 Nov claimed responsibility for killing of Kurdish Internal Security Forces in Markadehvillage. In Deir Ez-Zor province, ISIS-af�liated cells 9 Nov killed four near al-Mayadin; roadside IED 20Nov killed �ve �ghters from Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Clashes between regime forces and ISIS incentral desert 26-28 Nov killed at least 29 regime soldiers and 30 militants. Meanwhile, also in northwest, Kurdish-led SDF 23-24 Nov clashed with Turkish-backed forces in Ain Issa, north of Raqqa city,killing dozens of Turkey-backed �ghters, and local militias 8 Nov took control of al-Masakin checkpointin north-western Daraa, allegedly killing �ve regime soldiers. In south east, amid govt attempts toimprove its control, govt forces clashed with local �ghters; authorities 8 Nov arrested a dozen peopleduring clashes in Daraa city. Damascus 11-12 Nov hosted conference on refugee return; Russia pledged$1bn for reconstruction. Alleged Israeli airstrikes 15-22 Nov and shelling 25 Nov killed at least 27 pro-Iran militants.

COMMENTARY: The SDF Seeks a Path Toward Durable Stability in North East Syria

Iran

Iran remained in breach of 2015 nuclear deal, while U.S. administration maintained maximumpressure policy on Tehran. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general 18 Novinformed agency’s Board of Governors that traces of uranium “at a location in Iran not declared to theAgency still needs to be fully and promptly explained by Iran”. IAEA next day derestricted latest reporton Iranian compliance with Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA); report concluded that Irancontinued to exceed limitations on uranium stockpile, which as of 2 Nov stood at 12 times JCPOA’s cap.Tensions with U.S. continued. The New York Times 16 Nov reported President Trump 12 Nov hadconsidered military action against Iran’s main nuclear site; reporting underscored risk of growingfriction between Iran and U.S./U.S. allies during Trump’s �nal months in of�ce. Iran 27 Nov con�rmeddeath of senior nuclear scientist in ambush east of capital Tehran; FM Zarif claimed “serious indicationsof Israeli role”. Meanwhile, U.S. continued to roll out unilateral sanctions designations: Treasury 10 Novsanctioned “a network of six companies and four individuals that facilitated the procurement of sensitive

NOVEMBER 2020

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/commentary

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/syria/sdf-seeks-path-toward-durable-stability-north-east-syria



goods” for Iranian military company as well as intelligence minister; Treasury 18 Nov targeted IslamicRevolution Mostazafan Foundation, describing it as “a key patronage network for the Supreme Leader”;State Dept same day blacklisted two Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps of�cials for role in suppressing Nov2019 protests; U.S. 25 Nov sanctioned four China and Russia-based companies “for supporting Iran’smissile program”. Following U.S. election victory of Democratic candidate Joe Biden, FM Zarif 17 Novreiterated Iran “will resume honouring its commitments under the JCPOA” if new U.S. administrationlifts sanctions in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2231. Meanwhile, third wave of COVID-19prompted authorities 21 Nov to implement lockdown in Tehran and 150 other cities for initial two-weekperiod; cases and fatalities continued to reach record levels throughout month, with 948,700 cases and47,875 fatalities reported as of 29 Nov.

Iraq

Rocket attacks on Baghdad’s Green Zone resumed while Islamic State (ISIS) continued deadlyassaults; clashes erupted between Kurdish factions. Shortly after U.S President Trump announcedtroop reductions in Iraq by Jan 2021, rocket attacks 17 Nov hit Baghdad’s Green Zone and surroundings,killing at least one civilian; Kataib Hizbollah-af�liated group Ashab al-Kahf claimed responsibility forattack in apparent retaliation for arrest previous night of three of its members in Fallujah city, Al Anbargovernorate. Despite attack, Kataib Hizbollah 18 Nov announced last month’s unilateral truce still inplace. Meanwhile, ISIS attacks persisted across country. Jihadists 3 Nov killed Iraqi policeman in Salahal-Din governorate. In major attack, ISIS militants 8 Nov attacked paramilitary coalition PopularMobilisation Forces (PMF) outpost in Radwaniyah palace in capital Baghdad, killing around 11; military13 Nov claimed killing of ISIS �ghters responsible for attack. Authorities 8 Nov commenced large anti-ISIS operations in Makhoul and Khanouka mountain ranges in Salah al-Din with coalition aircraft;French airstrikes near Makhmur town, Erbil governorate, 11 Nov killed three ISIS �ghters. Protests earlyNov broke out across country: in Baghdad, protesters demonstrated against police violence whileprotesters in Basra and Nasiriyah cities called for resignation of local governors; Basra authorities 6 Novused live ammunition against unarmed protesters, killing one and injuring seven. Meanwhile, tensionsincreased between rival Kurdish factions: Kurdish Democratic Party leader Masoud Barzani 2 Novaccused Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) of conducting last month’s attack on Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline.PKK militias 4 Nov launched rocket-propelled grenade at Peshmerga vehicle in Duhok province, killingone; PKK forces same day attacked Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) forces protecting oil well,injuring two. Relations between Erbil and Baghdad tense after national parliament 12 Nov passed BudgetDe�cit Law requiring KRG to transfer share of oil revenues to Baghdad; Kurdish representatives walkedout of parliament during vote in protest. Ministry of migration and displacement 9 Nov announcedclosure of camps for internally displaced to areas outside Kurdistan; national authorities forced thosedisplaced to leave camps in Anbar, Kirkuk, Ninewa, and Salah al-Din despite opposition to rushed movefrom international community.

VIDEO: Hundreds of Thousands of Iraqis Are Still Internally Displaced

NOVEMBER 2020

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/video

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iraq/hundreds-thousands-iraqis-are-still-internally-displaced



Yemen

Clashes continued on northern and southern front lines; U.S.’s likely designation of Huthis asterrorist organisation in Dec could prompt retaliatory attacks and hamper humanitarianoperations. U.S. reportedly continued to consider designating Huthi rebel group as Foreign TerroristOrganization (FTO); move would have detrimental impact on UN-led mediation efforts, economy andhumanitarian situation, and could prompt rebels to launch major retaliatory strikes into SaudiArabia. UN reportedly con�rmed mid-Nov withdrawal of all U.S. staff from capital Sanaa in anticipationof designation. UN Sec-Gen António Guterres 20 Nov warned that Yemen was “in imminent danger ofthe worst famine the world has seen for decades”, likely in response to designation rumours. In north,military situation remained largely stalemated with neither govt forces nor Huthis making progressalong most active front lines in Marib and al-Jawf governorates, while military activity also decreased inHodeida and al-Dhale governorates. However, following two weeks of intense clashes, Huthi- and govt-linked media 20 Nov reported Huthis had seized strategically important Mas military camp west of Maribcity; if con�rmed, group became close to seizing high ground around main highway leading to last majorurban govt stronghold. In south, sudden escalation of violence 18 Nov erupted between separatistSouthern Transition Council forces and President Hadi loyalists in Abyan governorate; �ghting in southand Saudi objections to Hadi cabinet nominees again delayed formation of new unity govt under RiyadhAgreement. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts remained largely stalled as UN attempts to pave way to talksbetween govt and Huthis through Joint Declaration initiative remained dependent on formation of newunity govt.

NOVEMBER 2020

Algeria

Record low voter turnout in constitutional referendum highlighted widespread scepticism overPresident Tebboune’s commitment to democratic reforms. In 1 Nov referendum, 66.8% of votersapproved constitutional amendments, which set two-term limit for president and MPs, make it easier tocreate political parties, hand over some presidential powers to PM and enhance powers of parliamentand judiciary; pro-democracy Hirak movement however boycotted vote, decrying revised constitution assuper�cial change, while turnout was lowest since 1962 independence at 23.7%. Demonstrators opposingreferendum 1 Nov destroyed ballot boxes and clashed with police notably in Bejaia city, Kabylia province.Meanwhile, Army Chief of Staff Saïd Chengriha became more visible as Tebboune remained hospitalisedin Germany after he was infected with COVID-19 in late Oct; number of Chengriha’s TV appearancesdramatically increased throughout month. Appeals court in Kenchela city 25 Nov reduced Hirak activistand �gure of Amazigh community Yacine Mebarki’s prison sentence on charges of “inciting atheism” and

NOVEMBER 2020



“offending the precepts of Islam” from ten years to one. Amid deteriorating socio-economic situation,Energy Minister Abdelmajid Attar, who holds Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’rotating presidency, 11 Nov said producer group and allies may consider deepening oil production cuts in2021 to shore up market; Attar late Oct said state-owned oil and gas company Sonatrach had suffered$10bn losses between Jan and Sept due to COVID-19 pandemic, and gas exports decreased by 41% duringsame period. Govt 8 Nov added new restrictions to limit spread of COVID-19, notably forbidding publictransportation between provinces; night curfew remained in place in 29 out of 48 provinces.

Q&A: Algérie : un air de déjà vu ?

Egypt

President Sisi’s allies won vast majority of seats in parliament’s lower house, and securitysituation remained tense in Sinai peninsula. In late Oct and early Nov elections, pro-Sisi MostaqbalWatan party won vast majority of 568 available seats in parliament’s lower house (28 more will beattributed by Sisi); turnout below 30%; run-offs to take place in late Nov and early Dec. In ongoingtargeting of Muslim Brotherhood (MB) supporters, parliament’s legislative committee 1 Nov approveddraft law that would dismiss any civil servants with ties to MB. In Sinai peninsula, armed forcescontinued to struggle to contain local jihadist insurgency, with Bir al-Abd area remaining major hotspotof violence. Explosive devices planted by Islamic State’s Sinai Province af�liate during its two-monthoccupation of villages west of Bir al-Abd town 4-9 Nov killed at least two soldiers and unknown numberof civilians. Suspected Sinai Province militants 7 Nov kidnapped Coptic Christian in Bir al-Abd town.Suspected jihadists 13-14 Nov shot and killed two soldiers in Rafah area near border with Gaza Strip, 19Nov struck gas pipeline near al-Arish town. New rounds of negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia andSudan failed to produce agreement on �lling and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (seeNile Waters).

NOVEMBER 2020

Libya

Cease�re agreement faced implementation obstacles, while political talks made slow progress.5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) – comprising military of�cers loyal to UN-backed Govt of NationalAccord (GNA) and others af�liated with Field Marshal Haftar’s Arab-Libyan Armed Forces (ALAF) – 2-4Nov met in western Ghadames city, for �rst time inside Libya, to establish subcommittees to follow-upon Oct cease�re agreement; 10 Nov met again in central city of Sirte, agreed that JMC’s headquarters

NOVEMBER 2020


https://www.crisisgroup.org/fr/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/algeria/algerie-un-air-de-deja-vu



would be based there. In following days, subcommittees started to discuss reform of Petroleum FacilitiesGuards, military unit tasked with protecting oil facilities that both GNA and Haftar’s forces have rivalchains of command over. Military forces from both sides, however, remained positioned on front linesand foreign military equipment continued to arrive to rival factions, in de�ance of cease�re. Acting UNSpecial Representative for Libya Stephanie Williams 19 Nov said GNA forces remained stationed at AbuGrein and al-Washkah localities, with patrolling activities reportedly taking place there, while ALAFcontinued to set up forti�cations and military outposts between Sirte and al-Jufra towns, and around al-Jufra airbase; Williams same day said military cargo �ights were recently monitored at al-Watiya andMisrata airports, under GNA control, while intense cargo aircraft activity was monitored between Beninaairport, al-Jufra and al-Gardabiya airbases under ALAF control. In Tunisia, UN-backed politicalnegotiations 9-15 Nov produced noncommittal roadmap to presidential and parliamentary elections tobe held 24 Dec 2021; document sets general principles guiding transition period and states that Libyaninstitutions have 60 days to agree on legal framework for elections. Delegates late Nov resumedconsultations online, no substantial progress reported. Feud late Nov erupted between Central Bank ofLibya (CBL) on one hand, and GNA and National Oil Corporation (NOC) on the other, over latters’ 22 Novdecision to withhold oil revenues in transit account and stop them from accruing to CBL; move is backedby U.S. and UN, but CBL argues it is illegal and could hinder public sector payments.

BRIEFING: Fleshing Out the Libya Cease�re Agreement

Tunisia

Oil production resumed in Kamour area in south, ending four-month blockade. Govt andprotesters – who blockaded oil and gas �elds in southern Kamour area in July to protest against lack ofredistribution of hydrocarbon wealth – 6 Nov reached agreement on reopening of oil and gas pumpingstation in exchange for employment opportunities and regional development; oil production resumednext day. Favourable terms of agreement fuelled calls for similar measures in other regions includingGabès, Gafsa, Kairouan, Kasserine and Tozeur. Notably, workers’ union in Kairouan 21 Nov called forgeneral strike 3 Dec. Court of Auditors 10 Nov said Islamist-inspired party An-Nahda and media mogulNabil Karoui’s liberal Heart of Tunisia party, both pillars of current parliamentary coalition, violatedelectoral law in 2019 by signing contracts with foreign communication agencies and paying theseservices through non-declared bank accounts; in joint statement, several civil society organisations 14Nov called for legal action.

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Western Sahara NOVEMBER 2020


https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/libya/b80-fleshing-out-libya-ceasefire-agreement



United States

Decades-old cease�re between Morocco and pro-independence Polisario Front collapsed,sparking concerns that long-frozen con�ict could reignite. Around 1,000 Moroccan soldiers 13 Novmoved into UN-monitored Guerguerat Buffer Strip in Western Sahara, in violation of 1991 cease�reagreement, with Moroccan govt reporting that troops had successfully secured key road to Guergueratborder crossing point with Mauritania, which supporters of Polisario Front had blockaded since 21 Oct,and set about building new sand berm to protect Guerguerat road. Polisario Front same day accusedMoroccan security forces of shooting at civilians who had been “demonstrating peacefully” and declaredend of cease�re and resumption of hostilities. Moroccan govt immediately denied allegations andreiterated its commitment to cease�re. In following days, Polisario troops targeted various military postsalong East-West sand berm that separates Moroccan-controlled Western Saharan territory from SahrawiArab Democratic Republic-controlled territory; death toll unknown. UN mission in Western Sahara 16Nov con�rmed opposing sides exchanged �re in previous days. Low-scale violence persisted throughoutlate-Nov.

United States (Internal)

Vote proceeded peacefully, but disputed electoral results sparked protests as incumbentPresident Trump rejected defeat. Despite concerns about risks of violence in lead-up to vote, nationalelections 3 Nov held peacefully, with extremely high turn-out by U.S. standards at 65.6%, partly resultingfrom mail-in balloting. Leading national media 7 Nov declared Democratic candidate Joe Bidenpresident-elect; of�cial tally 30 Nov showed Biden won with 51.1% of popular vote and 306-232 inElectoral College (constitutional mechanism for selecting president). Meanwhile, incumbent PresidentTrump continuously rejected results, claiming widespread fraud in battleground states (Michigan,Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) and long-time Republican states (Arizona, Georgia) that went for Biden.Trump’s support team launched series of legal appeals contesting outcomes in these states; by end-month, state and federal courts reviewing claims had yet to �nd evidence of signi�cant fraud, andprocess of certifying results moved forward. Trump’s camp continued to �ght outcome in key statesthrough reported pressure on state and local of�cials involved in tallying and certifying results andencouragement of Republican-led state legislatures to overturn popular vote by designating pro-Trumpelectors to represent their states at 14 Dec Electoral College vote (body tasked with choosing presidentbased on popular vote). Fraud allegations, relayed by some conservative media �gures and Republicanpoliticians, sparked series of “Stop the Steal” rallies across country; protests held largely peacefullythroughout month with no serious injuries reported. Tensions eased toward latter part of Nov as statescon�rmed Biden victory, including Georgia (after a recount) on 20 Nov, Michigan and key Pennsylvaniacounties on 23 Nov, and Arizona and Wisconsin on 30 Nov. After signi�cant delay, Trump administration24 Nov greenlighted transition mechanism although Trump did not concede. By end-month, resultsshowed Republicans making gains in Democratic-controlled House; control of Senate to be decided in 5Jan run-offs for Georgia’s two seats. According to Johns Hopkins COVID-19 global tracker, U.S. most

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affected country in the world with total 13.5 mn cases and 268,000 deaths as of 30 Nov; Newspaper TheWashington Post 9 Nov reported that amid resulting economic downturn one in six households withchildren do not have enough to eat.

Tracking Conflict Worldwide - ReliefWeb

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