The Twilight of Energy Abundance Technical Session 13 Archibald

SPE-171400-MSThe Twilight of Energy Abundance

David ArchibaldBackreef OilVisiting Fellow, Institute of World Politics, Washington D.C.

The Twilight of Energy AbundanceSlide 2

SPE-171400-MS • The Twilight of Energy Abundance • David Archibald

Date of Hubbert’s prediction

The most successful economic prediction ever made:

King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970.



Norway’s plot is predictive.



Norwegian production duly peaked in 2001.



Mexico’s plot is also predictive..

The Twilight of Energy Abundance

Slide 6


Mexican production duly peaked in 2003..



This is the cheap stuff - does not include shale oil, tar sands, natural gas liquids.



Non-US Production is no higher than what it was 10 years ago:

It has not been able to respond to the price signal.



Production from the majors has been shrinking:

Source: http://blogs.platts.com/2014/05/01/oil-majors-costs-prices/

Down 17% since 2006.



Historic oil price:



2004 was the end of cheap oil:.



The recent oil price and the return on substitutes:



Energy equivalence:

1 m bpd Oil =

42 m tpa LNG =

73 m tpa Coal

Carbon we get from the ground:.

Therefore the decline of oil production of 1.5 mbopd/annum over the next15 years is equivalent to ~ 60mtpa/year of LNG.



World Coal Production 1981 - 2050



Solar-driven cooling is what is in train:.



Food prices – the third leg of the triple whammy for civilisation:



A 10,000 year slice of human history in terms of energy sources:

Figure 30 of M. King Hubbert’s Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels



The two main factors in Nuclear Power:

1. Decay heat

2. Radioactive waste



The Future, Ultimately:

1.Nuclear power at $0.03 per kWh will produce hydrogen at $60/bbl energy equivalent.

2.Hydrogen will be combined with organically sourced carbon to produce liquid transport fuels at perhaps $120/bbl.

3.Civilisation can continue at a high level indefinitely.



Admiral Hyman RickoverAddress to the Minnesota State Medical Association14th May, 1957

Fossil fuels resemble capital in the bank. A prudent and responsible parent will use his capital sparingly in order to pass on to his children as much as possible of his inheritance. A selfish and irresponsible parent will squander it in riotous living and care not one whit how his offspring will fare.

If we start to plan now, we may be able to achieve the requisite level of scientific and engineering knowledge before our fossil fuel reserves give out, but the margin of safety is not large.

Thank You / Questions

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The Twilight of Energy Abundance Technical Session 13 Archibald

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