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History of the Assessment

“The impacts of the 1997–1998 El Niño arefresh in our minds, and the latest reports fromthe work of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) confirm what all of youalready know— changes in climate matter toindividuals, communities, businesses andgovernments who call islands home. Yourvaluable natural resources, traditional ways oflife, critical economic sectors, community supportinfrastructure, and, to a great extent, yourfuture, depend on developing an effectiveresponse to the challenges presented by climatevariability and change.” (Morrison, 2000)

With these words, Dr. Charles Morrison, President of theEast-West Center, welcomed participants to the “Workshopon Climate and Island Coastal Communities” convened inNovember 2000. The Workshop was part of a Pacific IslandsRegional Assessment of the Consequences of ClimateVariability and Change (the Pacific Assessment, or, theAssessment).

Set in motion with a similar workshop in March 1998, thePacific Assessment began with a recognition of the signifi-cant effects that year-to-year climate variability has oncommunities in the region today; an example is the effect ofthe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on rainfall,tropical storms and fisheries in the Pacific. The Assessmentalso acknowledged the importance of scientific research inthe Pacific Region to understanding the nature and conse-quences of climate variability and change (see definitions in

the box below). Such research includes long-term monitor-ing of greenhouse gases at sites like Mauna Loa in Hawai‘i;studies of the regional and global influence of Pacificocean-atmosphere processes such as ENSO; and studies ofthe ocean’s role in the carbon cycle, as well as the region’ssignificance in terms of biodiversity and endangeredspecies.

Finally, the Pacific Assessment was an effort to build on theleadership of the Pacific Region in establishing andsustaining a critical dialogue on climate variability andchange among scientists, businesses, governments andcommunity leaders. Elements of this dialogue include therole of Pacific Island governments and regional organiza-tions in raising international awareness of the potentialconsequences of climate change, as well as the success ofinnovative programs like the Pacific ENSO ApplicationsCenter (PEAC), which is designed to facilitate use ofemerging climate forecasting capabilities to supportdecision-making.

This report summarizes the key findings and recommenda-tions of the Pacific Assessment, a study of climate effectsand response options for Pacific Island jurisdictions thatwas conducted as a regional contribution to the first U.S.National Assessment of the Consequences of ClimateVariability and Change (the National Assessment). TheNational Assessment was organized by the agenciescontributing to the U.S. Global Change Research Program(USGCRP) and the White House Office of Science andTechnology Assessment. Appendix A provides a briefoverview of the National Assessment.

The Pacific Assessment focused on the American FlagPacific Islands, which include Hawai‘i, Guam, AmericanSamoa and the Commonwealth of the Northern MarianaIslands, and the U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands, whichinclude the Federated States of Micronesia (Yap, Pohnpei,Kosrae and Chuuk), the Republic of the Marshall Islands,and the Republic of Palau. Engagement of scientists anddecision-makers from throughout the Pacific Islands, andinvolvement of regional organizations like the East-WestCenter’s Pacific Islands Development Program (PIDP) andthe South Pacific Regional Environment Programme(SPREP), helps ensure that:

• participants and sponsoring agencies understand thebroad regional and international implications ofaddressing the challenges of climate variability andchange;

CHAPTER ONE— INTRODUCTION

“Climate variability and change” is used within thisreport to acknowledge two types of changes in the earth’sclimate system.

Climate “variability” refers to relatively short-termvariations in the natural climate system, such as thepatterns associated with the ENSO cycle or the PacificDecadal Oscillation (PDO).

Climate “change” is used in the IPCC context to refer tolong-term changes— from decades to centuries—associated with increasing concentrations of greenhousegases. Because variability and change both presentsignificant challenges and opportunities to Pacific Islandcommunities, both are addressed in this report.

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• the Assessment targets problems and issues important toPacific governments, businesses and communities;

• the Assessment benefits from expertise and insights fromthroughout the region; and,

• the results of this U.S.-funded activity are made availablethroughout the region.

The Pacific Assessment was coordinated by the East-WestCenter (in Honolulu, Hawai‘i) in collaboration withscientific partners from the University of Hawai‘i, theUniversity of Guam and the National Oceanic and Atmo-spheric Administration (NOAA); in addition, it was closelycoordinated with related activities supported under theauspices of the SPREP, particularly its Pacific IslandsClimate Change Assistance Programme (PICCAP). Appen-dix B lists members of the core scientific team for theAssessment. Members of the team’s Steering Committeemade substantial contributions of time and energy through-out the process— the Assessment would not have beenpossible without their commitment and the generosity oftheir home institutions. As will be discussed in more detail,the scientific team was comprised of close to 200 partici-pants whose expertise and insights contributed to thefindings and recommendations summarized in this report.

Financial support for the Pacific Assessment was provided byNOAA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA), the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), andthe National Science Foundation (NSF), with NSF serving

as the granting agency. Overall guidance for the Assessmentwas provided by a Steering Committee, which includedrepresentatives of businesses, national governments,resource managers and scientific institutions throughoutthe U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands (see Appendix C).

The March 1998 Workshop

The Pacific Assessment summarized in this report was adirect outcome of the March 1998 Workshop “Conse-quences of Climate Variability and Change for theHawai‘i-Pacific Region: Challenges and Opportunities,”which was held at the East-West Center as part of the U.S.National Assessment effort.1 As described in the workshopinvitation, the week-long event was organized around twoobjectives:

• to initiate a long-term, interactive dialogue on thesensitivity of Pacific Island communities, businesses andecosystems to climate variability and change; and,

• to explore opportunities to use new scientific informa-tion to adapt to or mitigate the consequences of climatevariability and change.

Formal presentations at the beginning of the workshopprovided participants with an opportunity to considerclimate variability and change from three perspectives: afundamental scientific understanding of the behavior ofearth’s climate system; an awareness of the effects of climate

PACIFIC ISLANDS REGIONAL ASSESSMENTTIMELINE OF KEY EVENTS

March 1998 ........................ Scoping Workshop “Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the Hawai‘i-Pacific Region:Challenges and Opportunities,” held at the East-West Center in Honolulu, Hawai‘i

September 1998 ................. Proposal for initial Pacific Islands Regional Assessment submitted to USGCRP agencies

September 1999 ................. Project funding received through NSF Grant (OCE-9907547); partial funding had been forwarded by theNSF in June 1999 on behalf of the NSF, DOI and NOAA

Fall/Winter 1999 ................. Core scientific team begins initial analytical work and conducts initial discussions with key groups ofstakeholders

March 2000 ........................ First formal meeting of the Steering Committee for the Pacific Assessment

Spring/Summer 2000 ......... Analytical studies and stakeholder discussions continue

Summer 2000 ..................... Working Group for the November 2000 Workshop established

November 2000 .................. Workshop “Climate and Island Coastal Communities” (Pacific & Caribbean) held at the East-West Centerin Honolulu, Hawai‘i

Spring 2001 ........................ Final Report of Pacific Assessment available for review and comment

1 Support for the March 1998 Workshop came from NOAA, DOI, NSF, NASA, and the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency.

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variability and change on economic development, infra-structure and community planning; and, some insightsinto the vulnerability of unique Pacific Island ecosystems toclimate variability and change. With these shared perspec-tives, workshop participants convened in smaller groups tobegin a more in-depth exploration of the challenges andopportunities presented by climate variability and changein six key areas: fisheries; agriculture; water resources;community planning and economic development; bio-diversity and endangered species; and public health andsafety. Working-group reports were discussed in a closingplenary session that also addressed critical informationneeds and some overarching findings and recommenda-tions. Appendix E provides a summary of the March 1998Workshop.

That Workshop identified some underlying assumptionsthat were used to help guide the Pacific Assessment,including:

• climate variability and change are superimposed on,and should be addressed in the context of, othereconomic, social and environmental stresses;

• year-to-year climate variability (e.g., ENSO) andextreme events already pose significant challenges in theregion, and it is essential to understand current patternsof variability and how they might change;

• today’s problems should be addressed today, even as weplan for the future;

• the geographic size and isolation of island communitiescan create special circumstances— and conversely,island communities can be models for understandingand responding to climate variability and change;

• required data and information are often missing and/orinaccessible (e.g., there are gaps in critical monitoringprograms, gaps in detailed research on local impacts,and a lack of attention to the direct impacts of climatechange and the consequences of mitigation options);

• infrastructure and community support services arealready stressed in a number of Pacific Island jurisdic-tions; and,

• there is a critical need to reduce the “information gap”between scientists and intended users of climate researchand information— a task that involves addressingscientific, institutional and communication/educationbarriers.

Conceptual Framework for thePacific Islands RegionalAssessment

The Climate Context

The climate system is characterized by chemical andphysical cycles and complex interactions between land, seaand air. The patterns that emerge from these interactingprocesses act on a variety of time and space scales. Spatially,ENSO is a phenomenon that occurs in the Pacific Oceanbut has global manifestations. Conversely, global phenom-ena, such as the increase in atmospheric temperatureassociated with greenhouse warming, have powerful localimplications. Throughout the earth’s history, ice ages haverepeatedly accompanied changes in earth orbit and solaractivities. On shorter time scales, seasonal patterns andyear-to-year variability, such as those associated withnatural cycles like ENSO, are sustained within the climatesystem and punctuated by extreme events.

Historically, climate has been conceptualized as thestatistical interpretation of precipitation and temperaturedata recorded over time for a given region. Observingatmospheric variations and discerning patterns remains keyto predicting climatic conditions and extreme weatherevents. The scientific community has done a good job ofthis, as evidenced by our understanding of ENSO as adominant pattern in the Pacific, and our recognition ofother patterns such as the PDO. Similarly, science isshowing how humans are affecting these patterns throughincreased emissions of greenhouse gasses. Recently, ourunderstanding of climate has been greatly enhanced bydynamic integrated-systems approaches.

Understanding how the climate system works requires astudy of bio-geo-physical processes. Understanding whyclimate matters requires a study of the interaction ofclimate with environmental and social systems at varioustime and space scales. Climate variability and change poseboth challenges and opportunities for human communitiesthat are simultaneously navigating changing demographic,economic, social and political conditions. Understandinghow social systems respond to climate change and variabil-ity requires knowledge of how they are affected by thoseconditions today and how they might respond in the futureif those conditions change. Historical analogs give us someinsight into climate changes and corresponding socialresponses.

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Climate, whether manifested as extreme events or persis-tent conditions, is experienced first as a physical phenom-enon. Temperature, wind and rain all affect the biophysicalenvironment; when extreme events such as tropical stormsoccur, people suffer injuries, habitats are destroyed (orenhanced) and the built environment is damaged. Climateis inextricably linked with hydrological processes and is amajor factor in the process of soil formation. It sets thestage for the establishment of habitats, affects the pace ofprimary productivity, and influences species density anddistribution. As one of the oldest of earth’s systems, climatepredates life on earth and sets the conditions in whichterrestrial environments emerged. Ecosystems and commu-nities evolve in the context of long-term trends, but theyalso are subject to extreme events that fall outside thenorm. We are sensitive to the frequency, intensity andpersistence of these conditions, as well as potential changesin long-term trends. Over the course of history, life onearth has evolved many remarkable adaptations to climateand climate variability, including reproductive, morpho-logical and behavioral adjustments. In short, climatechange and variability are expressed as environmentalchange and variability.

The physical environment is the material foundation for allhuman activities. Great amounts of time and energy arespent to convert the physical environment so that itprovides subsistence— through development of watersupplies, planting of crops, foraging for food, and con-struction of shelter. No matter how far some people may befrom these physical activities, their survival continues torely on the material world. Accordingly, any environmentalchange (induced by climate or other phenomena) intro-duces new opportunities or challenges for human commu-nities. To better understand how climate change will affectthese communities, it is important to consider how theyrely on the natural and built physical environments, andhow climate variability and change will affect theseenvironments.

In recent years, concern over the consequences of climatechange has led many to investigate the potential effects onhuman communities. Early appraisals focused on physicalhazards alone, while more recent approaches, recognizingthat human communities are at once physical and social,also have taken into account the social characteristics andorganization of communities likely to experience dangerousconditions.

Vulnerability to Climate Conditions

To date, interest in climate change has developed in thecontext of physical and biological impacts with limitedexploration of social and economic effects. However,understanding what climate change and variability mean forecological and social systems, and how we might respond,requires more than an understanding of basic processes andbiophysical impacts. The application of vulnerability studiesto the climate problem promises to enrich not only ourunderstanding of social-climate interactions, but also ourability to respond to change and extreme events (seedefinition of “vulnerability” in the box below).

The Pacific Assessment team hoped to provide an opportu-nity for businesses, governments, community leaders,resource managers and scientists to explore the region’svulnerability in terms of impacts (a combination ofsensitivity and exposure) and resilience (adaptive capacity).Thus, the approach adopted for the Assessment focusedfirst on identifying how and why climate matters to PacificIslands today, and then on exploring ways in which PacificIsland communities could reduce their vulnerability, eitherby reducing exposure or sensitivity, or enhancing resilience,or both.

The advantage of a focus on vulnerability is that, today andin the future, it can empower Pacific Island jurisdictions toconsider a proactive rather than reactive approach toimproving their ability to respond to climate variability andchange. Historical experience and the results of model-based scenarios2 of future climate were used to helpstimulate the discussion, but the focus was on improvingregional ability to anticipate and respond to changes inclimate today and in the future. A vigorous and sustainedcommitment to support adaptation measures in PacificIslands is particularly important in light of three keyfindings reported in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report:

2 Consistent with guidelines for the National Assessment, participants in the Pacific Assessment were provided with a summary of climate changeover the next 100 years based on the results of two coupled ocean-atmosphere models: the first generation coupled a general circulation model ofthe Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CGCM1) and a similar general circulation model used by the United Kingdom’sHadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HADCM2). Both runs used the core scenario for the National Assessment, which is a 1%rate of annual increase in carbon dioxide and sulfate aerosols (the GHG+A scenario).

Vulnerability is described as a “multidimensional conceptinvolving at least exposure— the degree to which ahuman group or ecosystem comes into contact withparticular stresses; sensitivity— the degree to which anexposure unit is affected by exposure to any set ofstresses; and resilience— the ability of the exposure unitto resist or recover from the damage associated with theconvergence of multiple stresses.” (Clark et. al., 2000).

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• human influences will continue to change atmosphericcomposition throughout the 21st century;

• global average temperature and sea level are projected torise under all scenarios in the IPCC Special Report onEmissions Scenarios (SRES); and,

• anthropogenic climate change will persist for manycenturies (IPCC, 2001).

The Pacific Assessment—Objectives and Approach

Reflecting discussions about the National Assessment at the1997 Aspen Summer Institute, and building on insightsthat emerged from the March 1998 Workshop, the PacificAssessment sought to achieve two, mutually-supportiveobjectives:

• development of a more complete understanding of theregional consequences of climate variability for PacificIsland jurisdictions, considering economic, social andother environmental stresses; and,

• support for a dialogue among scientists, governments,businesses and communities in the Pacific Region thatpromotes the use of climate information to supportdecision-making.

This dialogue will allow diverse stakeholders to develop ashared understanding of climate effects and possibleresponses, and to use climate information to support

decision-making. This concept of shared learning and jointproblem-solving emerged as a defining characteristic of theAssessment and reflects an evolving paradigm of assessmentsas a process of dialogue among scientists and stakeholders.

Thus, the Pacific Assessment can be viewed as a componentof broader efforts to develop and use climate information tosupport decision-making (see Figure 1 below).

The programmatic backbone of the Assessment, and thecentral process animating this new regional climate informa-tion system, is the work of sustaining the partnershipsnecessary to produce, communicate and use new informa-tion and shared insights into climate variability. Pursuant torecommendations from the March 1998 Workshop, theAssessment team has given highest priority to exploring theimplications of climate variability and change for:

• water resources (e.g., droughts associated with the ElNiño, and potential changes in rainfall patterns associ-ated with long-term climate change);

• public health and safety in island coastal communities;and

• economic development and resource management in keysectors such as tourism, agriculture, and marine andcoastal resources, especially as these are affected bychanges in patterns of extreme events such as hurricanesand typhoons.

Figure 1.Conceptual model of a Pacific ClimateInformation System (PCIS), which incorporatesscience and broad-based collaboration intopublic decision-making.

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Although the Assessment focused primarily on the directconsequences of climate variability and change withinPacific Island communities, the organizers and participantsacknowledged the importance of recognizing that theeffects of climate variability and change on other jurisdic-tions in the Asia-Pacific Region (and throughout theworld) also have environmental and economic implicationsfor Pacific Islands.

The Assessment supported analytical studies, a large, multi-stakeholder workshop and focused discussions withrepresentatives of key sectors. The studies helped illuminatethe nature and consequences of historic and projectedclimate trends, and included analysis of model-basedscenarios of climate change over the next 50 and 100 years.The November 2000 Workshop focused on the role ofclimate in island coastal communities. Focused, small-group discussions included consideration of climatevariability and change issues by: representatives of thePacific Basin Coastal Zone Management officials at their16th Annual Conference in January 1999; the Hawai‘iCongress of Planning Officials at their September 1999Conference; participants in a fall 1999 workshop onENSO and water resources held in Fiji under the auspicesof PEAC and SOPAC; and participants in a workshop onclimate and health held in Samoa in 2000 under the jointauspices of the World Health Organization (WHO) andthe World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Participants in the Pacific Assessment were asked toconsider vulnerability in the context of two questions:

• What systems, activities, communities and populationsare particularly exposed and sensitive to climate, andhow? and,

• How might we enhance the adaptive capacity of thesesystems, activities, communities and populations?

To further enhance adaptive capacity, particularly in lightof recent developments in science and decision-making,participants were asked to think strategically about thefollowing:

• What information/research is needed to reducesensitivity or enhance adaptive capacity (build resil-ience)?

• How can information about climate be used to enhanceplanning, policy formulation and decision-making?

• What cooperative partnerships could be pursued toenhance adaptive capacity?

The insights that emerged from the Assessment dialogueon these five questions provide the basis for this report.

Organization of this Report

This report provides an integrated summary of thescientific analyses conducted as part of the Pacific Assess-ment, and the insights that emerged from the March 1998and November 2000 Workshops and small-group discus-sions.

The report was reviewed and approved by the PacificAssessment Steering Committee, and participants in bothWorkshops were invited to comment on the draft report.In addition, the draft was made available for public reviewand comment via posting on the East-West Center climatewebsite (www2.eastwestcenter.org/climate/assessment). Adetailed summary of the comments received and addressedduring review of this report is available from PrincipalInvestigator Eileen L. Shea, Climate Project Coordinator atthe East-West Center.

Subsequent chapters of this report will provide:

• A description of the Pacific Islands region, including anoverview of regional climate and socioeconomicconditions and a summary of the results of the model-based scenarios of climate change (Chapter Two);

• A discussion of climate-related challenges and opportu-nities faced by Pacific Island communities, focusing onvulnerability in the six key sectors used to organize theNovember 2000 Workshop (Chapter Three); and,

• A discussion of planning for the 21st Century, withemphasis on development of effective response options;identification of critical information gaps and researchneeds; support for critical regional partnerships that useclimate information in decision-making; and a conclud-ing discussion of future activities (Chapter Four).

Additional details on the Assessment process are containedin the following appendices:

• An overview of the U.S. National Assessment (Appen-dix A);

• Key members of the Pacific Assessment core scientificteam (Appendix B);

• Members of the Steering Committee for the PacificAssessment (Appendix C);

• Selected materials related to the November 2000Workshop on Climate and Island Coastal Communi-ties, including the Workshop Summary, WorkshopAgenda, Members of the Steering Committee, List ofWorking Group Chairs and Rapporteurs, and List ofParticipants (Appendix D);

• Selected materials related to the March 1998 “Work-shop on the Consequences of Climate Variability andChange for the Hawai‘i-Pacific Region: Challenges and

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Opportunities” including the Workshop Summary,Members of the Steering Committee, List of WorkingGroup Chairs and Rapporteurs, and List of Participants(Appendix E); and

• A proclamation issued by the governor of Hawai‘i on theoccasion of the March 1998 Workshop (Appendix F);

Rather than an end product, this report represents thebeginning of a sustained process of dialogue and informa-tion-exchange among scientists, businesses, governments andcommunities in the Pacific Region. It is our hope that thisreport will serve as a guidepost for those seeking to betterunderstand current and future climate-society interactions inthe region, and will also inspire people from all walks of lifeto explore together how climate affects our lives.

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CHAPTER TWO—PACIFIC ISLANDS REGION

Describing the Region:Islands and Coastal Communities

Island Geography and GeologyAmerican flag and U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands (AF/USAPI) include the Hawaiian islands; the Samoan islandsof Tutuila, Manua, Rose, and Swain; and islands in theMicronesian archipelagos of the Carolines, Marshalls, andMarianas. The Micronesian islands include the territory ofGuam, the Commonwealth of the Northern MarianaIslands (CNMI), the Freely Associated States of theRepublic of Palau (Palau), the Republic of the MarshallIslands (RMI), and the Federated States of Micronesia(FSM)— all north of the equator in the western Pacific.The Hawaiian islands lay further to the east, and AmericanSamoa is the only AF/USAPI south of the equator.

Geomorphically, these islands are exceedingly varied andtherefore difficult to generalize. The AF/USAPI includevolcanic islands, continental islands, atolls, limestoneislands, and islands of mixed geologic type. About half ofthe Caroline Islands and 80% of the Marshall Islands areatolls, some of which peak at only a few feet above presentsea level. Volcanic islands, on the other hand, can reachheights of more than 13,000 feet, as does the snow-cappedpeak of Mauna Kea on the island of Hawai‘i.

Island landforms, however, are not solely the product ofgeological histories. In the Pacific, climatic and oceano-graphic controls are important causes of landform variationas well (Nunn 1999). Changes in rainfall and the water-table level are especially important in this regard and havebeen implicated in such fundamental processes as bedrockformation (Schmalz 1971), the development of theamphitheater-headed valleys commonly found in theHawaiian Islands (Nunn 1994), and the development ofphosphate rock (Stoddard and Scoffin 1983).

The combined affect of geologic, oceanographic, andclimatological processes can have profound effects on thepeoples who settle these islands. High volcanic islands,which tend to have larger surface areas, generally havemore fresh water, better soils, and more diverse resourcebases. Low-lying atolls, on the other hand, are especiallyprone to drought and erosion, and generally (at least onland) have limited natural resources. Finally, the interactionof climate and sea dramatically affects coastal zone forma-tion and will continue to do so as sea levels rise.

Defining the Region

If you were to draw together all 58 million square miles ofthe Earth’s land area and place it in the Pacific Basin, thatland would still be an island in the middle of a great sea—the Pacific Ocean is vast. However, while some may viewthe sea as a barrier, for many others it is a highway.Historical trade routes and settlement patterns throughoutthe Pacific produced strong cultural links among the30,000 Pacific Islands, and have resulted in distinctivePolynesian, Melanesian, and Micronesian spheres ofinfluence. Later, colonial and post-colonial historiesresulted in political alignments that crossed culturalboundaries. This exploration of climate change focuses onthe Pacific Islands that are politically affiliated with theUnited States.

As inhabitants of small island states, the people of thePacific share certain vulnerabilities to climate change andvariability. Similarities include the processes of soil andcoastal zone formation, susceptibility to ocean-born stormsystems and tidal fluctuations, hydrology, biogeography(including population density, species density and distribu-tion), and limited resource bases. Differences derive fromvariations in island geology such as history of formation(continental islands versus volcanic islands); relative size,isolation and age (from high island to atoll); extent andnature of reef formation; and the capacity of naturalaquifers.

The economic strategies of each community revealsomething of the relationship between island peoples andthe physical elements of their islands. While humanemotion and spirit can be affected by climate change andvariability, it is the physical and material dimensions of thehuman experience that make us most vulnerable. More-over, physical vulnerability is inextricably linked with socialsystems. These systems at local, island, regional and eveninternational levels influence not only human exposure toclimate change and variability, but also human adaptivecapacities. The values and beliefs that underpin economicdecisions— and the social structures that distributeopportunities and constraints— are all culturally informed.In sum, willingness to adapt, resilience to change, knowl-edge of climate systems, and trust in policy makers andpartners all affect the vulnerability of island populations.

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Island EcosystemsAs might be imagined by the diversity of island forms,Pacific Island landscapes and biodiversity are many andvaried as well. Warm temperatures and moisture havesupported the growth of tropical forests on many islands,particularly the high islands. Forested areas are stillcommon in upland areas of Hawai‘i and American Samoa,Pohnpei, and Kosrae.

While even relatively small islands can host a diversity offorest types, atolls generally do not support dense forestvegetation in part because of the soil composition andhydrological constraints. These relatively small islands arecoastal zones. Boundaries between land and sea fluctuatethroughout the year. Mangrove forests fringe some islands,in zones where salt water and fresh water mix to form thebreeding grounds for many valuable fish species. Richlagoons interlace other islands, bountiful with fish andother marine life. Throughout the region, coral reefs areabundant and productive, attracting myriad fish speciesthat in turn attract subsistence and commercial fishermen.

Though these Pacific ecosystems differ from each other inmany important respects, they are all islands, and much ofthe condition and vulnerability of their biota derives fromthat fundamental characteristic. Oceanic islands have loweroverall levels of biological diversity. Island species are muchmore likely to be endemic (found only on a single island orarchipelago) and to occupy restricted habitats. Islandsgenerally are more susceptible to disruption by biologicalinvasions. The combination of land-use change, human-driven species introductions and certain unique characteris-tics of islands has made island species and ecosystems morevulnerable than their continental equivalents to humanendangerment and destruction.

There are a number of conditions that affect most islandecosystems and their biological resources. The extinction of

species and genetically distinct populations is an irreversiblecomponent of human-caused global change, and to dateextinction has been disproportionately significant onislands. Any list of threatened or endangered species revealsthat islands remain enormously vulnerable to future losses.The Hawaiian Islands, for example, make up only about0.002% of the United States’ land area, but are the solehome for nearly 30% of the nation’s endangered species.Furthermore, biological invasions by human-transportedalien species are a major driver of endangerment andextinction, and a significant element of change in their ownright. The extent of biological invasion on islands generallyis much greater than in continental systems, and, overall,constitutes the major ongoing threat to the unique biodiver-sity of islands.

Another feature that all of the islands in the Pacific Regionshare is a dependence on coral reefs, which in addition tohosting a wealth of marine life also provide a natural formof coastal protection against wave and wind damage. Inaddition to the many human-induced stresses, reefs aresensitive to temperature increases—as evidenced bysignificant coral bleaching associated with the 1997–1998El Niño—as well as to the damaging effects of hurricanesand tropical cyclones. Finally, island ecosystems are affectedby human population growth, economic strategies andgovernance systems.

Island PeopleThe AF/USAPI are home to an estimated 1.7 millionpeople, though the distribution of people throughout theislands is highly imbalanced (see Table 2.2). Consider that1.2 million live in the state of Hawai‘i, while the Republicof Palau is home to fewer than 19,000. This disparity isindicative of the range of diversity in human settlement inthe region, as well as the range of challenges and opportuni-ties facing communities in each island jurisdiction.

Similarly, population growth rates vary widely through-out the islands. The population of RMI, FSM, andGuam are all expected to double within the next 31years, while the Republic of Palau will not double until2068 (based on a natural rate of increase: PopulationReference Bureau, 2000). These figures compare with anestimated doubling time of 51 years for global popula-tion. The high natural rate of increase in many AF/USAPI is accentuated by high migration rates. Thedistribution of populations within and between islandgroups can have dramatic implications for climate-society interactions. Consider, for instance, that in theMarshall Islands, 65% of the population is urban, whilein the FSM only 27% is urban. The spatial distributionof human populations has clear implications for water

Hawaiian Green Sea Turtles are among the endangered species in Pacificecosystems that are affected by climate change and other natural factors.

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workers overseas (remittances) for instance, can help toalleviate domestic vulnerability by strengthening economicvitality.

Pacific Island Economies:In small-island states, natural resources are generallylimited. Geographic remoteness is typical, and the associ-ated costs of transport and shipping have a profound

management systems that are highly sensitive to climatechange and variability. Furthermore, urban poor are, ingeneral, notoriously vulnerable and least able to adapt toextreme events, so rural to urban migration, if not coupledwith careful planning and infrastructure development, canincrease overall sensitivity to climate change while reducingadaptive capacity. Conversely, migration in some instancesis an adaptive strategy. The money sent to the islands from

FOCUS: CLIMATE AND BIODIVERSITY

Climate variability—the ENSO cycle, decadal variations,and extreme events such as hurricanes and other majorstorms— has always influenced Pacific organisms andcultures. However, the consequences of climate variabilityfor biodiversity have changed in recent years, for twoprimary reasons. First, many native species are nowpresent only as small, often fragmented populations,frequently persisting only in marginal portions of theirformer range. These marginal environments may beparticularly vulnerable to climate variability. For example,introduced mosquitoes and the avian malaria they transmitcontinue to plague Hawaiian honeycreepers, endemicspecies that have been crowded into high-elevation forestson the upper edge of their former range due to habitatdestruction by humans and other introduced species,including birds and ungulates. ENSO-related droughtconditions can be significant in these higher sites wherethe honeycreepers are now found.

A second reason why the effects of climate variability havechanged is that introduced species are now widespread onmost Pacific Islands, and disturbances such as hurricanesand other large storms generally further facilitate theestablishment of those species. In the case of HurricaneIniki on Kaua‘i, introduced species responded aggressivelyto fill the void left by the damage to native forests.

Climate change, therefore, has direct effects on PacificIsland species and ecosystems, and it is very likely that itseffects are multiplied through interaction with land-usechange, over-harvesting, species invasions and otheraspects of human-caused changes in biodiversity.Components of climate change that affect biodiversity inPacific Islands include:

• sea-level rise, which can jeopardize habitats and affectthe availability of fresh-water resources, particularly onatolls and low islands;

• increasing temperatures, which can affect the viabilityof species (e.g., some corals are susceptible to smallincreases in temperature and may be unable to recoverfrom bleaching if ocean temperatures exceed theiroptimal range);

• changes in rainfall, which can affect species andecosystems directly through impacts on the availabilityof fresh-water resources; and,

• increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, which for somesystems may have a greater effect than changes intemperature and precipitation.

Changes in CO2 levels affect the growth, chemistry andefficiency of water use for native and introduced species,and these changes in turn affect the distribution ofecosystems and the palatability of plants as food foranimals. For example, changes in growth rate mayprovide an advantage to some weedy, introduced species,while change in the distribution of ecosystems presentsan opportunity for other introduced species. In marineecosystems, there is evidence that skeleton-building bycorals (calcification) can be reduced by elevated CO2

levels, which, when combined with increasing tempera-tures, could represent a double stress for corals.

Finally, there is the possibility for “surprise” changes in theclimate system that may occur abruptly rather than beingmanifested as gradual changes in trends or meanconditions.

Many of the strategies that Pacific Island communitiescould implement to reduce the vulnerability of species andecosystems to climate variability and change involvereducing current human-related stresses on thosespecies and ecosystems. Reducing these stresses isessential for building resilience to future climate changes.Some specific activities could include:

• Strengthening land-use policies and enforcing existingpolicies, which could make a substantial contribution toprotecting terrestrial habitats and marine ecosystemsfrom sedimentation and nutrient pollution;

• expanding education and public awareness programs,which can improve our understanding of the economicand cultural value of biological diversity, and enhancedevelopment of a sustained commitment to effectivestewardship; and,

• developing more effective partnerships amongscientists, government agencies, resource managers,businesses, and local communities, which couldsignificantly enhance efforts to understand andrespond to the consequences of climate variability andchange on biodiversity and, more broadly, on PacificIsland communities.

5

influence on islandeconomies. National,territorial or statewideeconomic profiles reflecta common bundle ofstrategies, though relativeemphasis varies fromisland to island (seeTable 2.1). Tourism, forinstance, figures promi-nently in the grossdomestic product ofmost island jurisdictions.It has been the largestsource of income in theRepublic of Palau(Osman, 2000), while inHawai‘i the travel andtourism industryproduced an estimated$6.3 billion in 1998,second only to real estatein terms of its contribu-tion to the state’s GDP(World Travel andTourism CouncilHawai‘i Tourism Report,1999). Considerabletourism infrastructurehas been developed inHawai‘i, Guam, andCNMI, though theprominence of tourismin CNMI’s economy hasdwindled since 1997 (Osman, 1999b). On the other hand,traffic to the Marshall Islands and American Samoa is more

oriented to returning residents than to vacationing tourists.

Another component of economies throughoutthe AF/USAPI, particularly in the freelyassociated states (Palau, FSM and the Republicof Marshall Islands), is the significant role ofgovernment spending. Compact payments forexclusive access to island waterways andmilitary rents have buttressed the public sectorand, in several jurisdictions, have been theprimary source of revenue for recipientgovernments. By contrast, the private sectorplays a key role in other jurisdictions, notablyHawai‘i, Guam, and CNMI. In Guam, privatesector employment replaced government as thelargest employer for the first time in 1998(Osman, 1999a). In CNMI, lax labor andimmigration laws and access to U.S. marketshave hastened the development of garment

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6

manufacturing, which grew from 13% of CNMI’s grossbusiness receipts (in 1990) to 29.3% (in 1998) (Osman,1999b). In Hawai‘i, financial services and digitaltechnology are beginning to play a substantial role in thestate’s changing economy.

Where island resource bases are limited, marineresources are often extensive. Exclusive Economic Zones(EEZ), which extend up to 200 miles out from eachjurisdiction, offer a source of income to many islandsthrough sale of fishing rights to U.S., Japanese, Taiwan-ese, Korean, and other fishing fleets. American Samoa isthe only AF/USAPI to have invested substantially in thevalue-added tuna canning industry, but tuna trans-shipment has been an important small industry inGuam and has provided some employment in Palau.Estimates of expenditure on fuel, provisions, and servicesby tuna fleets on Guam have been as high $118 millionper year.

In general, commercial agriculture in the AF/USAPIserves domestic markets, though export-orientedplantation agriculture was once the foundation ofHawai‘i’s economy. Commercial agriculture also playeda major role in Micronesia during the Japanese occupa-tion. In the RMI, copra production has been andcontinues to be an important source of income. Subsis-tence and semi-subsistence agriculture, on the otherhand, are major components of many local economicstrategies.

Social systemsMigration and settlement have infused the region withconsiderable social and cultural diversity. Monsoonwinds propelled early migrants (about 4,000–5,000years ago) from the Philippines and Indonesia all aroundthe Pacific Basin. The first settlers arrived in Palau andYap, then continued north to Guam and through theNorthern Marianas. The Caroline and Marshallarchipelagoes were probably settled by peoples from theSolomon Islands or Vanuatu (Kirch, 2000). Today, thereare seventeen languages spoken in the FSM alone,including two Polynesian dialects, fourteen Micronesianlanguages, and English. Polynesian migration patternsare characterized by fantastic voyages. Using only thestars and stories, early settlers journeyed thousands ofmiles across open ocean to reach the most geographicallyremote islands in the world— Hawai‘i. While it isdifficult to generalize about traditional society in aregion as vast as this, some commonalities are evident.The importance of clans and lineages in local socialorganization, the prominent role of chiefs, and the closecultural, economic and spiritual relationship with land

THE EFFECTS OF MIGRATION

Migration (both within and across international borders) is one of themost important processes affecting both the structure of PacificIsland populations and the growth and distribution of Pacific Islandworkforces. Migration patterns are shaped, at least in part, bydifferential resource bases, historical geopolitical relations, andvulnerability to climate-related extreme events such as hurricanes,typhoons, cyclones, and drought.

Prior to FSM’s independence, internal migration trends revealed amovement of people from outlying islands to administrative centers(Sudo 1997), in part because urban centers held the promise ofeducation, medical care, and income (Appleyard 1988). Thismovement, though, also includes climate refugees who flee drought-stricken or typhoon-ravaged islands and atolls; it is a movementaway from places that are perceived as personally dangerous, orconditions that are difficult (Pirie 1994).

While substantial migration from Guam and American Samoa beganafter WWII, a wave of Micronesian migrations followed independenceof the trust territories. Hawai‘i, Guam and CNMI in particular haveattracted many migrants from other islands’ jurisdictions; so many, infact, that Guam and CNMI have asked the federal government forrepayment of expenses linked to Micronesian migrants grantedaccess to U.S. territories by virtue of the compact of free association(Osman 2000).

Many islanders moved to urban centers abroad as well. In 1990,62.4% of American Samoans lived abroad. Roughly 30% of Palauannationals have emigrated to live in foreign countries; at the sametime, Palau has accepted the same number of Philippine andChinese laborers (Sudo 1997). Like Palau, other AF/USAPI haveattracted migrants from throughout Asia and the Pacific. CNMI, forinstance, has experienced a net in-migration flow (Rappaport 1999)largely due to the emergence of the garment and manufacturingindustry.

The bottom line is that migration, both internal and international, is akey factor in determining the distribution and density of communities,and can have a profound effect on climate/society interactions in theAF/USAPI.

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7

and sea, for instance, are all characteristic of pre-contactsocial systems.

Contact with Europeans began with Magellan’s fleet. Hiswas the first recorded circumnavigation of the globe andincluded a landing in Guam in 1521. Not long after, theSpaniards arrived and claimed the islands for the Crown.Soon after, soldiers appeared in Guam, Saipan, and Palau.Catholic missionaries followed. During this period, manyof Guam’s indigenous Chamorro communities wererelocated. German, English, and Russian whaling expedi-tions began frequenting the area in the early 19th century,and new patterns of migration emerged at the turn of the20th century. Germans purchased many islands from theSpanish, and American soldiers in the wake of the SpanishAmerican War later claimed the islands that had not beensold. Japanese forces began to arrive in 1914 and assertedjurisdiction over the German land claims. Japaneseinfluence and migration to the region continued throughWorld War II (Hezel 1995).

After World War II, the United States by U.N. Mandateestablished a “Strategic Trust” relationship with what isnow the RMI, the FSM, the Republic of Palau, and theCNMI. American military personnel and administratorsestablished themselves throughout the region and broughtwith them American social and cultural institutions.

Contemporary social systems throughout the AF/USAPIvary widely; they are a mix of traditional Micronesian orPolynesian rules and institutions as well as those adoptedfrom colonial or industrialized countries. In some senseHawai‘i and Guam stand at one end of the spectrum ofeconomic development and westernization. At the otherend are the FSM and American Samoa. In Hawai‘i andGuam, cash economies are highly developed and highlydependent on tourism, and very few people rely on

SUBSISTENCE PRACTICES

Island economies employ a range of strategies to secure andsustain the welfare of their communities. At the householdlevel, island livelihoods include a combination of subsistencefarming and fishing, salaried or wage labor, and entrepreneur-ial ventures— though relative emphasis on each of theseeconomic strategies varies widely among the jurisdictions.Hawai‘i, Guam and CNMI, for instance, have well-developedcash economies, strong links with international markets, andservice sectors that play key roles in their economies. Toillustrate, revenues from services accounted for 18.1% ofCNMI’s gross business revenues in 1998 (Osman 1999b). Inother jurisdictions such as FSM and American Samoa,nonmarket production is the cornerstone of local economies.Nonmarket production includes subsistence activities andproduction for nonmonetary trade, both of which figureprominently in island economies but are not fully representedin official figures.

Traditional agriculture, though still practiced, has changedconsiderably. Changing patterns of land tenure, new consumerpreferences, and changing conditions in wider society havealtered land-use practices in many of the AF/USAPI. Whilefew livelihoods rely exclusively on subsistence activities,nonmarket fishing, cultivation, and animal husbandry continueto play a significant role in local and, hence, island-wide

economies. As these activities are most closely associatedwith the physical environment, they are the most sensitive toclimate change and variability.

Subsistence fishing is still an important food source for mostisland communities. The FAO estimates that worldwideaverage annual consumption of fish is 13 kg per capita;however, average consumption in Palau exceeds 100 kg percapita (Lal and Fortune, 2000). In all the Pacific Islands(except Tonga) subsistence catches far outweigh thecommercial harvest, including for tuna (Lal and Fortune, 2000).

Despite changing preferences and availability of importedfoods, subsistence agriculture continues to play a major role inthe AF/USAPI. Consider that of the 1,126 farms in AmericanSamoa in 1990, 88% produced solely for subsistence (Osman,1997). Indigenous cultivation systems incorporate a range ofland uses including home gardens, shifting cultivation andagroforestry (tree crops such as coconuts, breadfruit, andbananas). In Yap, as much as 27% of the vegetation may beclassified as agroforest (Falanruw, 1994). Cultivation ofwetland taro still plays a significant role in the lives andlivelihoods of many islanders, particularly in the FSM, where itis the staple crop. Wetland taro is very sensitive to changes inprecipitation and saltwater intrusion.

Subsistence fishing supports much of the rural population in many Pacificislands, yet is particularly susceptible to climate-induced changes in coastalecosystems (photo by Joseph Konno).

8

subsistence gardening or fishing. In American Samoa andthe FSM, traditional political structures are still in placeand people outside the urban centers rely heavily on fishingand gardening for their food. In Guam and Hawai‘i,western legal systems dominate, whereas in AmericanSamoa and the FSM, traditional norms continue to governbehavior in rural areas.

Chiefly systems persist throughout the islands, and haveretained an especially influential role in planning anddecision-making in the RMI, parts of the FSM, andAmerican Samoa. Environmental management in theislands, to be effective, relies on collaboration betweenthese various decision-making authorities, each of whichbrings something unique to the process. Local and nationaldecision-making and planning organizations are aug-mented by grassroots, regional, and international organiza-tions. These organizations and institutional arrangements,if constructively engaged, can enhance the adaptivecapacity and reduce the sensitivity of island coastalcommunities to climate change and variability. Suchcooperation could be through the sharing of knowledge,experience and information about climate conditions andthe effects of climate on environmental and social systems.

Today’s Climate

In spite of fundamental physical similarities, the range ofvariation within the Pacific Islands is extraordinarily broad.

The islands differ geomorphologically, from atolls withsmall, low islets and extensive lagoons, to raised limestoneislands, to volcanic high islands with substantial topographicand internal climatic diversity (microclimates). They differclimatically as well, from wet western equatorial islands toseasonal tradewind environments—and they differ in theirexposure and sensitivity to cyclones and to ENSO-relatedclimatic variability. The following brief summaries highlightthe prevailing climatic conditions in the jurisdictionsaddressed in this Report. Most of the material in this sectionis excerpted from reports on the individual jurisdictionscontributed to the Pacific Meteorological Needs AnalysisProject (PMNAP) conducted by the South Pacific RegionalEnvironment Programme (SPREP, 2000).

American SamoaAmerican Samoa has a tropical maritime climate withabundant rain and warm, humid days and nights. Annualrainfall, usually in the form of showers, averages about 125inches a year at the airport, but varies greatly over smalldistances because of topography. For example, Pago Pago,less than 4 miles north of the airport, at the head of a hill-encircled harbor open to the prevailing wind, receives nearly200 inches a year. The crest of the range receives substan-tially more than 250 inches. The driest months are Junethrough September (winter in the southern hemisphere,where American Samoa is located) and the wettest areDecember through March (summer in the southernhemisphere). Heavy showers and long rainy periods canoccur in any month. Flooding rains are not unknown and

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9

some of these are associated with tropical cyclones thatusually only affect American Samoa during El Niñoperiods. The prevailing winds throughout the year areeasterly trades, interrupted more often in summer thanwinter, and sometimes associated with tropical cyclones,convergence bands, and upper level disturbances.

Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana IslandsClimatologically, the Mariana Islands are considered thesunniest islands in Micronesia. Rainfall is concentrated inJuly, August and September. Northeast tradewindsdominate from November to March with easterly windspredominant from May to October. Typhoon season runsfrom July to January, and the islands of the CNMI areusually subject to at least one typhoon each year.

Saipan is the largest island in the CNMI and the secondlargest of the Mariana Islands (Guam is the largest). Saipanis the most populated island and is the seat of governmentas well as the site of most economic activity in the CNMI.The west coast of Saipan is protected by a fringing barrierreef, while the relative absence of reefs on the east makethat side of the island subject to strong waves fed by thetradewinds, particularly during Saipan’s winter (Novemberto April).

Average year-round temperature is 84° F with an averagehumidity of 79%. The ocean temperature averages 82° F.Occasional passing rain showers and gentle prevailingnortheast tradewinds provide an environment that has beendescribed as, “as perfect as it gets.”

Federated States of MicronesiaThe following paragraphs provide brief summaries for eachof the individual states that comprise the FSM.

Kosrae— Kosrae is the only FSM state without outerislands, and is the most easterly state in the country. It hasthe smallest land area (only 42 square miles, or 112 squarekilometers) and consists of two islands joined by a cause-way. Kosrae’s climate is tropical oceanic, and heavy rainfallhas created numerous perennial streams. The averageannual temperature is 81° F and average annual rainfall is175.9 inches (4466 mm). Located only 5° north of theequator, Kosrae experiences periods of heavy rainfallassociated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ). Most tropical storms pass north of the state, butthe effects of typhoons can be felt in the area.

Pohnpei— Kolonia, capital of the island state of Pohnpei,receives roughly 16 feet (192 inches) of annual rainfall,with twice that amount falling on the interior mountains.Annual rainfall at the weather observatory is 193.6 inches,

and average annual temperature is 80° F. The island’shighest point, at 2540 feet (798 meters), is the summit ofMount Nahnalaud, thought to be one of the wettest spotsin the world, with an average annual rainfall exceeding 400inches. Pohnpei is a large state, with most of its islands andatolls in the north-central, southwest, and western parts ofthe state. The northern part of Pohnpei is where tropicaldisturbances often form, though most develop into full-blown typhoons north and west of the state. The southern-most atoll in the state is Kapingamarangi, located 2° northof the equator, and subject to droughts, particularly duringLa Niña events.

Chuuk— From about November to June, the climate ofChuuk is influenced chiefly by northeasterly tradewindswith average monthly speeds of 8 to 12 mph. By aboutApril, however, the trades begin to weaken, and by Julygive way to the lighter and more variable winds of thedoldrums. Between July and November, the island isfrequently under the influence of the ITCZ. This is also theseason when moist southerly winds and tropical distur-bances, many associated with the ITCZ, are most frequent,and when humidities often are oppressively high. Rainfallat Chuuk averages about 140 inches a year, and tempera-ture is remarkably uniform; high temperatures are generallyin the middle 80s, and low temperatures in the middle 70s.

Although the major typhoon tracks of the western Pacificlie to the north and west of Chuuk, several of the stormshave passed close enough to the island to cause widespreaddamage, including Supertyphoon Nina in November 1987;Nina was the most intense and devastating storm to havestruck the vicinity, and a few days later, it decimated thePhilippines as well.

The 1997–98 El Niño drought had a devastating effect on taro, animportant subsistence crop in many Pacific islands, including theFederated States of Micronesia (photo by Joseph Konno).

10

Yap— The ITCZ lies near Yap during the northernsummer, particularly as it moves northward in July andsouthward again in October. At such times, showers andlight, variable winds predominate, interspersed with heaviershowers or thunderstorms, occasionally accompanied bystrong and shifting winds. The average annual temperatureis 81° F, and average annual rainfall is 121.5 inches. Morethan a quarter of all Yap’s residents live on the outerislands, the rest on Yap.

Tropical cyclones or typhoons affect Yap much less oftenthan they do Pacific Islands further to the north and west(the CNMI to the northeast, and the Philippines to thewest and northwest, for example). June to December are

the months of greatest storm frequency, but fully developedtyphoons are uncommon near Yap.

GuamThe Pacific Ocean ends at Guam; its western shores signalthe beginning of the Philippine Sea. This 209-square-mileisland, southernmost of the Marianas, is the largest inMicronesia. Guam’s climate is almost uniformly warm andhumid throughout the year. Afternoon temperatures aretypically in the middle to high 80s, with nighttimetemperatures in the low 70s or high 60s. Relative humiditycommonly ranges from 65 to 75% in the afternoon, and85% or higher at night. Rainfall and wind conditions varymarkedly, and it is these elements and variations that reallydefine the seasons.

FOCUS: THE 1997–1998 EL NIÑO— CLIMATE SCIENCE SERVING SOCIETY

on the public radio station four times a day; public serviceannouncements were aired on local television and radiostations; information hotlines were set up; brochures wereprepared and distributed, and presentations on El Niño anddrought were made in local schools. Water managementagencies in Majuro, Pohnpei, Chuuk, Kosrae, Yap, Palau,Guam and Saipan developed and implemented waterconservation plans. In Palau, the Department of Public Workssurveyed the water distribution system in Koror and completedrepairs on about 80% of the system before the drought set in.Throughout the FSM, people repaired water catchmentsystems and local vendors were able to supply new householdcatchment systems to meet the demand that developed inresponse to the public information campaign. The FSMgovernment made deliveries of water to outer islands in Chuukand Yap. In November 1997, the FSM Congress appropriated$5 million to address the potential impacts of anticipateddrought conditions, and the U.S. Ambassador to the Republicof the Marshall Islands requested assistance from the U.S.Commander-in-Chief-Pacific (CINCPAC) to secure equipmentand replacement parts to refurbish pumps for wells andincrease storage capacity.

Even with these precautionary measures, the 1997–1998 ElNiño produced such extensive drought conditions that waterrationing became necessary in many areas. Water hours wereimposed on most islands, with conditions on Majuro being themost severe. During April and May 1998, the water utility onMajuro was only supplying seven hours of water every fourteendays until pumps for wells on Laura islet were repaired. InPalau and Pohnpei, municipal water was available for only acouple of hours each day at the height of the drought. In theouter islands of Pohnpei, water was supplied by ship, andtanker trucks delivered water to schools in rural areas on themain island. Water supplied to the Koror-Airai area in Palauwas reduced from 111 million gallons per month to 9.3 milliongallons per month during the height of the drought.

The 1997–1998 El Niño event offers a vivid example of whatclimate means to people in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands(defined in Chapter One) and how information about potentialconsequences can be used to support decision-making andbenefit society. This summary of the Pacific Islands’ experi-ence during the 1997–1998 El Niño comes from the work ofthe PEAC, which is a partnership among NOAA, the Universityof Hawai‘i, the University of Guam, and the Pacific BasinDevelopment Council.

By May 1997, most ocean-atmosphere observations andpredictive models indicated that a significant El Niño wasdeveloping. El Niño events have significant consequences forU.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands, including droughts, changes intropical storm/hurricane patterns, and changes in oceanconditions that affect economically significant resources likefisheries. For purposes of brevity, this example will focusprimarily on El Niño-related changes in rainfall that led tosevere drought conditions in many of the Pacific Islands.

In June 1997, PEAC alerted governments in the U.S.-affiliatedPacific Islands that a strong El Niño was developing and thatchanges in rainfall and tropical storm patterns in late 1997through June 1998 might be like those experienced in 1982and 1983. In September 1997, PEAC issued its first quantita-tive rainfall forecast, saying that severe droughts were likelybeginning in December. PEAC also told governments that therisk of typhoons and hurricanes would be higher than normalin the RMI, eastern islands in the FSM, and in AmericanSamoa. With the exception of Hawai‘i, all Pacific Islandgovernments served by PEAC developed drought responseplans, aggressive public information and public educationprograms, and drought or El Niño task forces. The publicinformation campaigns informed the public of what they mightexpect from El Niño, and what measures they could take tomitigate damaging consequences; these included waterconservation, boiling water to prevent outbreaks of certaindiseases associated with drought conditions, and reducing therisk of wildfires that often increase during drought conditions.In Pohnpei State for example, a video was produced and aired see “El Niño” on facing page...

11

There are two primary seasons and two secondary seasonson Guam. The primary seasons are the dry season, whichextends from January through April, and the rainy seasonfrom mid-July to mid-November. The secondary seasonsare May to mid-July and mid-November through Decem-ber; these are transitional seasons that may be either rainyor dry, depending upon the climatic nature of the year. Onaverage, about 15% of annual rainfall occurs during thedry season, and 55% during the rainy season.

Throughout the year, the dominant winds on Guam arethe tradewinds, which blow from the east or northeast. Thetrade are strongest and most dominant during the dryseason, when wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph are common.During the rainy season there is a breakdown of the trades,and on some days the weather may be dominated bywesterly moving storm systems that bring heavy showers, orsteady and sometimes torrential rain. Of all the countriesand territories discussed in this report, Guam and theCNMI are most subject to typhoons, which are mostfrequent from June through November. Historically, Guamhas been affected by as many as four typhoons in a singleseason. They occur most frequently during the latter half ofthe year, but they either strike or pass sufficiently close toproduce high winds and heavy rains in every month.

Hawai‘iHawai‘i’s climate is one of the most spatially diverse onEarth. Because of this spatial variation of climate, Hawai‘iresembles a continent in miniature. It has ecosystems

ranging from deserts to tropical rain forests and evensubalpine mixed forests, all in very close proximity. Hawai‘iis located in the tropics and surrounded by the PacificOcean, with the nearest continental land mass more than2,000 miles away. The ocean supplies moisture to the airand acts as a giant thermostat, assuring small seasonaltemperature variations. Hawai‘i’s warmest months areAugust and September, and its coolest months are Februaryand March. For most of the state, there are only twoseasons: the warm or “kau” season from April to September,and the cool or “ho‘oilo” season from October to March. Asemipermanent high pressure zone, usually northeast of the

“El Niño” continued...

Agriculture suffered from the droughts everywhere exceptGuam. In the CNMI, citrus and garden crops were mostaffected, and the local hospital had to buy imported fruitsand vegetables rather than rely on local suppliers. A limiteddamage assessment was done on Pohnpei, and seriouslosses of both food and cash crops were sustained. Lossesof staple crops of taro and breadfruit in FSM exceeded 50%,and over half the banana trees evaluated had died or wereseriously stressed. Sakau (kava) was probably the mostserious economic loss because it had recently become amajor cash crop. On Yap, taro losses were estimated at 50–65%, and betel nut prices increased more than 500%despite the fact that only 15–20% of the trees were lost. InPalau, food shipments increased from twice a month toonce a week.

While the above example has focused largely on water,other climate-related consequences were felt throughout theislands; these included changes in the migratory patterns ofeconomically significant fish stocks like yellowfin tuna, whichresulted in losses for some island jurisdictions but opportu-nities for others; stresses on some coral reefs associatedwith increased temperatures; extreme tides from El Niño-

related variations in sea level, as well as increased sedimenta-tion from erosion in areas affected by wildfires; losses ofimportant fresh-water shrimp, eels and fish as rivers andstreams dried up; and reduced local air quality conditions inareas such as Yap, Pohnpei, Palau and Guam, which wereaffected by increased wildfires locally and haze from wildfiresin Indonesia.

Still, the consequences could have been worse. Advancewarning made possible by emerging forecasting capabilitiesand a focused program of education and outreach clearlyhelped mitigate the negative impacts of these climate effects,a good example of how real people in real places can benefitfrom climate assessment and adaptation. Pacific Islandcommunities, governments and businesses are learning howto factor new information about climate variability into theirdecisions and are now looking for information about howpatterns of natural variability (like ENSO) might be affected byclimate change in the long term. Scientists and decision-makers throughout the Pacific are learning how, by workingtogether, they can begin to address the challenges andopportunities of climate variability and change (Hamnett,Anderson, Guard, and Schroeder, 2000).

A billboard on Pohnpei encourages water conservation in preparation for the1997–98 El Niño. (photo courtesy of U.S. National Weather Service, PacificRegion Headquarters)

12

3 A “Kona storm” is a low-pressure system that develops in the upper troposphere, gradually extends to lower altitudes, and may eventually appearas a low at the earth’s surface. Kona storms form near the Hawaiian Islands every year, but locations and effects vary. If a Kona storm developsto the west of Hawai‘i, moist showery southerly winds may persist for more than a week and rainfall totals are often large. Kona storms formingto the east of the Hawaiian Islands tend to bring rain that falls largely over ocean areas (Sanderson, 1993).

islands, provides the northeasterly tradewinds for which thestate is famous. This high tends to be more persistent andstronger in the warm months, producing steady tradewindsand less rain. In the cool months, the tradewinds may beinterrupted for days or weeks by the invasion of fronts, windshear lines, or low pressure systems from the north, and by“Kona Storms”3 near the islands. The cool season has morefrequent southerly and westerly winds and more clouds andrainfall, sometimes producing flash flooding. Hawai‘i’smountains, valleys and ridges significantly influence everyaspect of its weather and climate (Sanderson, 1993).

Rainfall distribution closely resembles topographic contours;amounts are greatest over ridges and windward areas(northeast slopes of ridges and mountains) and least inleeward lowlands. The islands receive more than 400 inchesof rain on Mt. Wai‘ale‘ale on Kaua‘i, more than 200 incheson higher windward elevations of all islands, and less than15 inches in many leeward areas. The leeward and other dryareas have mostly dry warm months, and receive most oftheir rainfall from cool-season storms. The wetter regionsshow smaller seasonal differences because of the persistenttradewind showers. El Niño conditions usually disrupt thispattern, producing drought conditions, along with morefrequent tropical storms and hurricanes. Tropical stormsand hurricanes, although not frequent, have significantlyaffected the state in the late 1800s, 1959, 1982, and 1992(Sanderson, 1993).

Republic of the Marshall IslandsThe climate in the RMI is tropical, with tradewindsprevailing throughout the year. Tropical storms and ty-phoons are rare, although more likely during the summer

months and El Niño years. Tropical storms are more likelyto produce damaging effects over the northern islands, butcan affect the entire country. Minor storms of the easterly-wave type are quite common from March to April andOctober to November. The trades are frequently interruptedduring the summer months by the movement of the ITCZacross the area. Rainfall is heavy, with the wettest monthsbeing October and November. Precipitation generally fallsin showers, but continuous rain is not uncommon. One ofthe outstanding features of the climate is the consistenttemperature regime; the range between the coolest andwarmest months averages less than one degree. The averageannual rainfall on Majuro (the most densely populatedisland, where the capital is located) is about 131 inches.

Republic of PalauPrecipitation is heavy in Palau, though variable from monthto month and year to year. In Koror, where the weatherstation is located, annual rainfall of 150 inches or more isnot uncommon. Normal monthly precipitation exceeds 10inches, and in some years each month has received at least15 inches. Precipitation is heavy during December andJanuary, decreasing sharply when the ITCZ moves wellsouth of the islands. February, March, and April are thedriest months of the year. Winds are generally light tomoderate, and the northeast trades prevail from Decemberthrough March. During April, the frequency of tradewindsdecreases, and there is an increase in the frequency of eastwinds. In May, the winds are predominantly from southeastto northeast.

The ITCZ usually moves northward across Koror duringJune, bringing with it heavy rainfall and thunderstorms thatmay yield an inch of rain in 15 to 30 minutes. The ITCZremains in the vicinity of Koror, though most commonlynorthward, from July through January, with heavy rainfallpersisting. Temperatures and humidity are high.

Model-based Scenarios ofFuture Climate Conditions

This section provides a brief technical discussion of theresults of recent efforts to anticipate future climate condi-tions using complex computer models that simulate thebehavior of key components of the earth’s climate system.These projections of future climate change for the PacificRegion are based on two approaches. The first approach usesa single, global, coupled ocean-atmosphere model to project

The Intertropical Convergence Zone takes up residence around Augustand September of each year near Ulithi Atoll, in Yap, FSM.

13

seasonal changes for the Pacific Region. This single-modelapproach has been supplemented with a review of theresults of a multimodel ensemble used in the third assess-ment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (See Cubasch et al, 2001 for details on the modelsand emissions scenarios).

The single-model climate change projections shown hereare based on the results from two models: the Hadleymodel run at the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction;and the first-generation, coupled, general-circulation modelof the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling andAnalysis.

These two models were run for 100+ years, ending in2100, using the core greenhouse-gas emissions scenario forthe National Assessment, which is a 1% rate of annualincrease in CO

2, and commensurate changes in sulfate

aerosols (the GHG+A scenario). The 1% rate of increase isbased on rates of observed increases modified by estimatesof how the current sources of emissions are likely to changein the future; as such, it is deemed plausible as a “businessas usual” case with little policy intervention anticipated inthe future.

In these models, increased CO2 causes warming by limiting

outgoing long-wave radiation in the absence of a simulta-neous reduction in incoming solar radiation. Increasedsulfate aerosols produce a net cooling over regions wheresulfur emissions are greatest, generally corresponding toindustrial regions in the midlatitudes of the northernhemisphere. The “direct effect” of these aerosols (reflectionof some of the incoming solar radiation before it can reachthe earth’s surface) is accounted for in the models, but theradiative forcing of increased aerosols is weaker than that ofthe CO2, so by the end of the 21st century a general (butnot spatially uniform) warming of the globe is projected tooccur. Additional information on these model emissionscenarios is provided at the web site (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/naco/emissions.html).

As the results from the Hadley and Canadian models weregenerally consistent, all figures in this report’s discussion ofspecific results will be from the Hadley model; comparisonswith Canadian results will be made if necessary. In general,the details of important Pacific Island climate processessuch as ENSO were better resolved in the Hadley model,thus the rationale for using the Hadley results in thesefigures.

The multimodel ensemble summary in this report repre-sents an average of nine “state-of-the-science” global,coupled climate models from groups in the U.S., Canada,Germany, Australia, the U.K. and Japan. The multimodel

ensemble was run with two of the scenarios (A2 and B2)described in the IPCC Special Report on EmissionsScenarios (SRES). The multimodel ensemble results shownhere present annual means. The comparison of detailedseasonal results from the Hadley model with the annualmean multimodel results provides a comprehensive pictureof the types of climate changes projected to occur in thePacific during the 21st century. In addition, the ensemblemethod provides scientists with a tool for quantifying levelsof uncertainty among the models’ projections of changes inkey climate variables, such as surface temperature andprecipitation. The use of multimodel ensembles for thispurpose is briefly described in a sidebar that precedes thischapter’s summary.

Climate Change Projections froma Single Model

The following sections describe the results of the singlemodel-run for temperature, rainfall, ENSO, tropicalcyclones and sea level for the Pacific Islands addressed inthis Report. Two time periods were used in the analysis offuture changes in temperature and rainfall:

• average conditions from 2025–2034 minus the model’s1961–1990 base-period average (called “short-lead” inthe figure captions); and,

• average conditions from 2090–2099 minus the model’s1961–1990 base-period average (called “long-lead” inthe figure captions).

Long-lead results for the 2090–2099 period are moreuncertain and speculative than those for the 2025–2034period, although they may sometimes serve to amplify andfurther define the same patterns shown in the short-leadresults. The two seasons analyzed are December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA). These arethought to represent the two seasonal extremes. However,changes in certain phenomena, such as tropical cyclonesthat peak during the transition seasons, may not beoptimally represented.

TemperatureThe primary effects of climate change in the tropical PacificBasin are projected to be a gradual warming of the sea-surface temperature (SST) and the air temperature. About1° C (1.8° F) of warming is projected per 20 to 45 years.As shown for the Hadley model in Figures 2.1 (2025–2034) and 2.2 (2090–2099), warming in this model isprojected to be greater in the following areas: a regionalong and slightly south of the equator extending from theinternational dateline on the west to the South Americancoast on the east, and in the region that extends east-northeastward from the equatorial Central Pacific to the

14

4 Convection refers to the process of cloud formation and precipitation associated with areas where warm, tropical air rises through the atmosphereand, as it expands and cools, leads to the formation of clouds—a process through which latent heat is added to the atmosphere as watercondenses to form clouds. As a result, weather tends to be disturbed in these areas. In the tropics, warm air rises to the top of the troposphere andmoves off toward the poles. These areas of “rising” air movement are complemented by areas in which colder air tends to move downwardthrough the atmosphere (“sinking” air), and then toward the equator. Alternating areas of rising and sinking air are found around the globebetween the poles and the equator, and help characterize the world’s weather zones. As a general rule, weather in areas of sinking air tends to bedry and relatively calm.

United States-Mexico border and thesouthwest coast of the United States. Thearea of warming generally resembles ahorseshoe-shaped pattern that is concen-trated north and slightly south of theequator east of the dateline.

The warming in the equatorial EastPacific is projected to be greater duringthe peak El Niño season of DJF. Hawai‘iis on the northern edge of the fastestwarming area in the northern leg of thehorseshoe, with projected increases inSST of 1.3° C (2.3° F) by the 2025–2034 period (Figure 2.1) and 3.0° C(5.4° F ) by the 2090–2099 period(Figure 2.2). The outer edges of the east-southeastward leg of the horseshoe affectsAmerican Samoa, the northern CookIslands and French Polynesia, withprojected increases in SST of 0.5° C (0.9°F ) by 2025–2034 and 1.3 to 2.0° C (2.3to 3.6° F) by 2090–2099.

The projected warming pattern for theCanadian model is in general agreementwith the Hadley model, with somewhatwarmer temperatures along the northernand southern legs of the horseshoepattern, reaching 1.6° C (2.9° F) in theshort-lead results, and 4 to 5° C (7.2 to9½ F) in the long-lead results.

RainfallAccompanying the warming in theHadley model, certain parts of the regionare projected to experience increases inrainfall due to the fact that warmer waterproduces more moisture and the atmo-sphere above a warmer ocean surface canabsorb and hold more moisture. The most likely locationsfor increased rainfall are near the equator in the vicinity ofthe dateline, where the SST is already nearly warm enoughto support convection (cumulus cloud growth and precipi-tation).4 Any additional increase in ocean temperatures inthese areas, then, would result in marked increases in

convection, and therefore rainfall. It is important to notethat, during an El Niño, the SST in these equatorialregions near the dateline exceeds the temperature thresholdfor convection. Increased rainfall is therefore projectedalong the two warming “arms” of the horseshoe-shapedtemperature pattern described above.

Figure 2.1: Projected changes in skin temperature (SST over ocean, and surface-airtemperature over land) difference for the short-lead results (the model’s 2025–34 averageminus the model’s 1961–90 base period average) for the seasons DJF and JJA, in °C.

Hadley HADCM2 Skin temp. for DJF (2025-34) - (1961-1990) (units: oC)

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15

Scientists expect seasonal variations in this anticipatedrainfall pattern. For example, they do not project anysignificant change in winter, when ocean temperatures arecooler in areas to the east of the horseshoe’s vertex (theplace where the curve in the horseshoe is the sharpest—inthis case, where it crosses the equator). During the borealsummer months of June, July and August, increased rainfallis projected to occur along a line from the equatorial vertex(near Kirabati) all the way to the southernmost Hawaiianisland. Model projections for 2025–2034 (Figure 2.3),indicate that areas of increased rainfall in the horseshoe inthe southern hemisphere extend to 10° south, on a linestretching from Kirabati at the equator to American Samoa.

The results for the period 2090–2099(Figure 2.4) show this area extendingfurther south to between 15 and 20° south,with the largest increases in precipitationalong a line extending from RMI in thenorth to Tahiti in the south. The regionsnear 10° north and to the west of thedateline (e.g. FSM) would also receivesubstantially greater precipitation in thelong-lead results than in the short-leadresults.

During the austral summer months ofDecember, January and February, theincreased rainfall is tantamount to anintensification of the South PacificConvergence Zone, an area of the oceanthat provides one of the principal sourcesof heat, and therefore energy, to theatmosphere. Model projections for 2025–2034 (Figure 2.3), indicate enhancedrainfall along a broad band extending from10° north and 160° east (including theeasternmost islands of Micronesia and theRMI) through the equatorial dateline andsoutheast to near 10° south and 130° west,near the Marquesas Islands. This region ofenhanced precipitation is further enlargedin the projections for 2090–2099 (Figure2.4), with increased rainfall extendingfurther east along the equator, and largeincreases near the Marquesas Islands. Thisarea also extends further westward toencompass the westernmost islands ofMicronesia.

Decreased precipitation could be experi-enced in all seasons in areas near theequator east of about 140° west longitude(e.g., Fanning and Christmas Islands).

Since rising air must fall somewhere else (see Footnote 4),areas of rising air (usually accompanied by cloud formationand rainfall) alternate with neighboring areas of sinking airthat tend to be relatively dry. For this reason, dryness couldalso increase poleward of the most rapidly warmingequatorial regions, such as north of the Hawaiian Islands,affecting many of the AF/USAPI west of Hawai‘i, andtropical South Pacific Islands farthest off the equator butwest of French Polynesia. This would imply that, except forthe boreal summer season in the long-lead results, wherethere is greater precipitation, the western portion of theFSM would become drier, for example in Yap and Chuuk.The eastern part of the FSM (possibly Pohnpei, but more

Figure 2.2: Projected changes in skin temperature for the long-lead results (the model’s2090–99 average minus the model’s 1961–90 base period average) for the seasonsDJF and JJA, in °C.

Hadley HADCM2 Skin temp. for DJF (2090-99) - (1961-1990) (units: oC)

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16

likely Kosrae) not only could be exemptfrom this drying trend, but couldbecome wetter, being closer to the rain-producing warmed SST near thedateline. South of the equator, islandareas such as New Caledonia, Vanuatu,Fiji, southern Tonga, and Niue couldbecome drier.

All these possible rainfall-changescenarios are more uncertain than thetemperature-increase scenario andshould therefore be considered cau-tiously. The exact location of theborderlines between neighboring regionsof enhanced rainfall and suppressedrainfall is particularly uncertain. Thisuncertainty will be discussed in moredetail later, in the context of results fromthe multimodel ensemble experiments.Some of the locations near the boundarybetween the regions made alternatelywetter and drier by El Niño appear alsoto be on the boundary for the rainfalleffects of climate change; examples ofsuch locations are Apia in Samoa, andNiualakita in southern Tuvalu.

The patterns for projected precipitationchanges in the Canadian model aregenerally similar to those in the Hadleymodel. The differences include some-what stronger reductions in precipitationover the Western Pacific for the short-lead results in the Canadian model, aswell as a generally noisier pattern ofprecipitation changes (small-scalevariations between positive and negativeprecipitation changes) in the Canadianmodel for much of the region west ofthe dateline and south of 20° north; this encompassesmuch of the area around the FSM, the RMI and south toFiji.

Natural Variability/ENSOIn the Hadley model, the pattern of increased SSTs alongthe equatorial Central and Eastern Pacific suggests a greatertendency for El Niño-like conditions, with SSTs steadilywarming in the Central and Eastern equatorial PacificOcean. The increase of precipitation in this same region isindicative of the warming pattern seen in the model resultsin DJF for both the short- and long-lead results. In thisanalysis, anomalies of SSTs in the Niño-3 region (defined

as 5° N to 5° S and 150° W to 90° W) are used to measurethe strength of El Niños and La Niñas. The time-series ofthe Niño-3 SST anomaly index from the Hadley model(Figure 2.5) shows a general warming trend through 2099,with the average SST increase in this region of almost 3° C(5.4° F).

However, the background setting for the ENSO phenom-enon may be altered somewhat, with effects that aredifficult to project. That is, the character of ENSO itselfmay change with the overall warming of the ocean andatmosphere. This creates some uncertainty about the detailsof the future climate conditions in the Pacific. Presently,

Figure 2.3. Projected changes in total precipitation change for 2025–2034 (for DJFand JJA), in units of mm/day.

Hadley HADCM2 Precip. for DJF (2025-34) - (1961-1990) (units: mm/day)

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some models project an increase in El Niño amplitude, andsome show little change or a slight decrease (Cubasch et al.,

2001). This is actively being examined bythe research community, but limitationsin the models’ ability to simulate ENSOrestricts the certainty of projections of ElNiño behavior.

Tropical CyclonesPacific tropical cyclones generally developover ocean water that exceeds roughly 28°C (82.4° F). During the past 30 years,such warm water has generally beenlimited to the Western tropical Pacific,which has been the source of mostcyclone activity. This region extendsfarther east than usual during El Niño,posing an increased cyclone threat toislands farther east. The cyclonesnormally develop somewhat north orsouth of the equator and to the west ofthe dateline, and initially move towardthe west with the tradewinds. They thencurve poleward and finally eastward,threatening islands well off the equator,such as Guam, the RMI, or the HawaiianIslands.

With global climate change, the region ofvery warm ocean water is projected toexpand farther toward the east into areasthat now expect warm water only duringEl Niño. The projected result is a gradualincrease in the frequency of tropicalcyclones for islands in the Central andEast-Central Pacific, both north andsouth of the equator. Storm frequenciesfor the far Western Pacific may notdecrease as they would presently duringEl Niño events, because the SST therewill also be increasing, albeit at a slowerrate. In fact, the frequency could increase

slightly. In that case, the overall result would be aneastward extension of the tropical region that would

Figure 2.4. Projected changes in total precipitation change for 2090–2099 (for DJFand JJA), in units of mm/day.

Hadley HADCM2 Precip. for DJF (2090-99) - (1961-1990) (units: mm/day)

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Figure 2.5. Monthly Niño-3 SSTanomaly time-series (thin blackline) for the period 1900–2099.The El Niño 3 region is defined as5° N to 5° S and 150° W to 90°W, with the base years for theclimatology defined as 1950–1979.The thick red line is the 10-yearrunning average. Units are in °C.

18

normally experience cyclones, especiallyduring the local summer and fall, whenthey are most likely. However, none of theglobal coupled climate models currentlyin use, including the Hadley, havesufficient spatial resolution to accuratelysimulate individual tropical cyclones.Experiments with embedded hurricanemodels in the global models suggest aslight intensification of tropical cycloneswith more intense precipitation andsomewhat higher peak wind-speeds in awarmer future climate (Cubasch et al.,2001).

Large-scale midlatitude storms are afunction of the frequency and intensity ofcyclonic activity, which must be computedfrom frequent (usually daily) measure-ments. Storms cause large changes in sea-level pressure (SLP) on a short time scaleand, as a result, intraseasonal variation inSLP is an indicator of storminess— lowpressure systems and their fronts in theextratropics, and tropical cyclone activityin the tropics. The Hadley data arecalculated as standard deviations of SLP,filtered with a Murakami filter thatisolates the synoptic variability between2.5 and 8 days.

Figure 2.6 shows projected changes in theratio of SLP variance for two periods(2006–2036 and 2070–2100) comparedto a baseline period of 1990–2020 in theHadley model. Figure 2.6 illustrates thatin the near future more storminess isprojected for a region extending northand east of the Hawaiian Islands to thearea north of the FSM and east of theCNMI. For the far future (2070–2100), the storminess inthis region is enhanced further and enlarged to encompassthe entire Hawaiian Islands as well as most of the FSM andthe RMI. The equatorial region between 100° west and thedateline (north of the French Polynesian Islands butincluding the Marquesas Islands) is also expected toexperience more storminess in the far future. In thesouthern hemisphere between 10° and 30° south, stormi-ness is projected to decrease for regions between 170° eastand 90° west, which would include Fiji and the FrenchPolynesian Islands. The area surrounding American Samoais near the zero-line separating the regions of increased ordecreased storminess in the far future.

Sea LevelWhile increased sea-level rise can disrupt coastal areas overmuch of the Earth, atolls are particularly vulnerable to thephenomenon. Entire Pacific nations and archipelagos havemaximum elevations of no more than two meters above sealevel; even a relatively small sea-level rise could affect alarge fraction of island area.

Sea-level rise can result in the loss of low-lying coastalareas— including agricultural land, human settlements andvaluable ecosystems— through erosion and inundation.Sea-level rise also can accelerate reduction in the volume of

Figure 2.6. The ratio of SLP variance for DJF for the period 2006–2036 compared to1990–2020, and the period 2070–2100 compared to 1990–2020. Higher ratios (>1)indicate more storminess in the future periods.

Hadley HADCM2 Ratio of SLP variance for DJF (2006-2036) - (1990-2020)

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0.76 0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20 1.24 1.28 1.32 1.36 1.40

19

the fresh-water lenses of low-lying atolls, further stressingfresh-water resources that may already be affected byreduced rainfall. Higher sea level conditions could alsoexacerbate the damaging effects of tropical cyclones andstorm surge.

Sea-level rise and climate change can accelerate beacherosion and also affect other forms of natural protectionsuch as mangroves and coral reefs. Some recent studiessuggest that the “net effect of sea-level rise on mangroves isunclear,” noting that if the rise is gradual, the effect couldbe beneficial for mangroves in some sites (World Bank,

2000). On the other hand, the potentialloss of coral reefs from SSTs rising abovethe coral’s preferred temperatures couldjeopardize the natural protection affordedby the reefs, and thus exacerbate theshoreline effects of wave action as well asperiodic and long-term variations in sealevel; this could also be influenced byother factors associated with climatechange. For example, a possible reductionin the rate of coral reef growth as a resultof an increase in carbon dioxide (CO

2) in

seawater could mean that these naturalprotective barriers will be unable to keepup with sea-level rise, thus exposingshoreline areas to storm surge and waveenergy that would otherwise have beendissipated by the reef. Loss of freshwaterresources associated with saltwaterintrusion as a result of sea-level rise couldalso be exacerbated by other factorsaffecting the availability of freshwatersuch as changes in rainfall or patterns ofnatural variability such as El Niño.

As these examples illustrate, it is impor-tant to recognize that any accelerated sea-level rise associated with climate changewill be accompanied by other changeswhose combined effects should beunderstood and addressed.

For the Hadley model, the sea-levelchange for the two periods analyzed isshown in Figure 2.7: 2020–2040 minus1980–2000, and 2080–2099 minus1980–2000. The model-based scenariosused in the National Assessment project asea-level rise of between 10 and 12 cm(3.9 to 4.7 inches) for much of the

tropical Pacific for the short-lead results, and a rise ofbetween 30 and 38 cm (11.8 to 15.0 inches) for the long-lead results.

The worldwide, eustatic sea-level change shown in Figure2.7 represents thermal expansion and glacial melt, but notice-sheet melt because of the uncertainty of the net effect ofclimate change on Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Sea-level rise varies with location because of local heating andthermal expansion. Isostatic rebound and subsidence mustbe factored in when using these values to compute relativesea-level rise at a particular location.

Figure 2.7. Sea-level rise for the period 2020–2040 minus 1980–2000, and the period2080–2099 minus 1980–2000; units in meters.

Hadley HADCM2 Sea Level change (2020-2040) - (1980-2000) (units: meters)

150oE 160oW 110oW40oS

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0

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45

20

It should be noted that projectionsof sea-level rise depend crucially onthe choice of future emissionsscenarios. Using the full range of36 scenarios summarized in theIPCC Special Report on EmissionScenarios (SRES), the IPCC ThirdAssessment Report projects a risein sea level ranging from 9 to 88cm (3.5 to 34.7 inches) at the endof the 21st century (Church et al.,2001). The single-model resultspresented here use only oneemissions scenario, and shouldtherefore be evaluated in thisbroader context.

To provide some historicalperspective for these projectedchanges, Table 2.3 (see page 34)provides a summary of mean sea-level trends at selected stations inthe Pacific Islands covered by thisReport. In addition, it must benoted that some Pacific Islandsexperience significant short-termvariations in sea level associatedwith ENSO events. For example,sea level at Kwajalein is reported tohave dropped 20 cm (7.9 inches)during the 1982–1983 El Niño.The University of Hawai‘i’s PacificSea Level Data Center notes thatfor one tidal station in the westernPacific (at Malakal, Palau), sea leveldropped 15 cm (5.9 inches) below the long-term averageduring the 1997–1998 El Niño, and rose almost 30 cm(11.8 inches) above normal during the La Niña thatfollowed.

Climate Change Projectionsfrom a Multimodel Ensemble

Annual mean surface temperature change for the nine-member multimodel ensemble is shown in Figure 2.8 forthe end of the 21st century (years 2071–2100 minus1961–1990) for two of the emissions scenarios (A2 andB2) used in the IPCC SRES. The main difference betweenthe scenarios used in the multimodel ensemble and thescenario used for the Hadley model above is that the morerecent SRES estimates for future sulfur emissions have beenreduced, thereby producing less negative radiative forcing

from that source, and allowing more warming from theincrease in greenhouse gases. The patterns of warmingcaused by sulfate aerosols do not substantially affect thePacific Region since they are restricted mainly to industrialareas. The other differences between the A2 and B2scenarios are that A2 generally has greater increases ofgreenhouse gases, and thus more positive radiative forcingthan B2. Therefore, the climate changes in A2 are generallygreater than in B2, and the net radiative forcing is less thanin the scenario used in the Hadley model, which is closer tothe A2 scenario.

The multimodel ensemble results both show a generalwarming of the tropical Pacific in agreement with theHadley model, with greater warming east of the datelinerelative to the Western Equatorial Pacific (see Figure 2.8).This so-called “El Niño-like response,” noted above, isstronger in scenarios in the multimodel ensemble than in

Figure 2.8: Mean surface air temperature change from the nine-member multimodelensemble for the SRES A2 scenario, 2071–2100 minus 1961–1990 (above), and meansurface air temperature change for SRES B2 scenario (below); units in ½C.

21

the Hadley model, with surface temperature increasesgreater than 2° C (3.6° F) in B2 and 2.6° C (4.7° F) in A2in the equatorial Pacific.

The implications of these surface-temperature changes arereflected in the changes in annual mean precipitation inFigure 2.9. The mean “El Niño-like” surface-temperaturechanges produce a similar El Niño-like change in precipita-tion, with an eastward shift of anomalous precipitation;they also produce increases approaching 100% in theequatorial Pacific near 160° W (just north of AmericanSamoa) in A2, and greater than 50% east of the dateline inB2 (see Figure 2.9). Since the surface-temperature changesin the multimodel ensemble are more concentrated east ofthe dateline near the equator, areas in which precipitationincreased more than 10% are confined mainly east of about160° E and between about 5° N and 5° S, in a region justnorth of the Marquesas Islands. The Hadley precipitation

changes extend more broadly in latitude, and occur fartherwest. For both A2 and B2, areas of decreased precipitationin the multimodel ensemble are projected to occur aroundFrench Polynesia and westward to near Fiji, and also nearHawai‘i, though those decreases are about 10% or less.

The Use of Multimodel Ensemblesto Quantify Uncertainty

Scientists can use multimodel ensembles like the onesdescribed here to help quantify levels of uncertainty inmodel-based projections of climate change. The greater theagreement– or consistency– among models in an ensemble,the more confident a scientist will be about a projection. Toprovide an idea of model consistency, or conversely, of thelevel of uncertainty associated with climate changeprojections, the range of model responses for surface-

Figure 2.9: Mean percentage change in precipitation from the nine-member multimodelensemble for the SRES A2 scenario, 2071–2100 minus 1961–1990 (above); and meanpercentage change in precipitation for SRES B2 scenario (below).

22

temperature increase across thetropical Pacific is around 2 to 3° C(3.6 to 5.4° F) in A2, and 1.5 to 2°C (2.7 to 3.6° F) in B2 (see Figure2.10). The range is less and thusthe consistency among the ninemodels is generally greater in theequatorial tropics between 20° Nand 20° S. As in the Hadleymodel, there is a relative maximumof warming projected to occur in aband extending through theHawaiian Islands, with a relativeminimum in the Southeast Pacificsouth of about 15° S.

Another measure of modeluncertainty in the trajectory of theindicated change that scientists useis the multimodel signal divided bythe multimodel standard deviationat every grid point. Where thesevalues are greater than 1.0, themultimodel climate changes aremore consistent relative to thenoise. For annual mean tempera-ture differences in the multimodelensemble, all areas in the TropicalPacific have signal-to-noise valuesgreater than 1.0 (not shown),indicating significant modelconsistency for the temperaturechanges shown in Figure 2.8.

As noted for the Hadley model,precipitation projections are much more uncertain thantemperature projections. The range of precipitationchanges for A2 and B2 exceed 200% in the EquatorialPacific for both scenarios, with smaller values to the northand south (see Figure 2.11). Additionally, the signal-to-noise calculation for the multimodel ensemble has valuesgreater than 1.0 only in a few regions of the WesternEquatorial Pacific (not shown). Thus there is much morescatter among the model results, and therefore greateruncertainty, about precipitation compared to temperature.

Summary

The model-based climate-change scenarios reviewed in thischapter highlight the following important issues that werecentral to discussions of vulnerability in the PacificAssessment:

• a general warming trend in surface air temperaturesacross the region, with implications for human settle-ments and marine and terrestrial ecosystems;

• a net regional enhancement in the hydrological cyclewith a trend toward higher precipitation in some areas,but with important subregional differences that includedrier conditions in some areas and uncertainties aboutthe potential effects of changes in hurricanes andtropical storms that often provide a large percentage ofrainfall in certain areas;

Figure 2.10: Range of surface air temperature change (highest ensemble member value minus lowestensemble member value at each grid point around mean temperature changes) for the SRES A2scenario (above); and range of surface air temperature change for the SRES B2 scenario (below).

23

Figure 2.11: Range of percentage change in precipitation (highest ensemble member value minuslowest ensemble member value at each grid point around mean precipitation changes) for the SRESA2 scenario (above); and range of percentage change in precipitation for SRES B2 (below).

• potential changes in natural climatic variability,including the possible emergence of a persistent El-Niño-like condition that could affect rainfall, tropicalstorms and ocean conditions, and, in turn, economicallyimportant fisheries and coral reefs;

• potential changes in hurricanes and tropical cyclonesassociated primarily with variations in SST and withpossible changes in ENSO, as well as long-term changesin the normal SST;

• increased ocean temperatures, with implications fortemperature-sensitive resources like coral reefs andfisheries; and,

• changes in sea level, including both periodic changesassociated with ENSO events and a long-term rise in sealevel.

24

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3

CHAPTER THREE—CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

The Pacific Assessment encouraged and supportedexploration of climate vulnerability in the context of sixactivities:

• Providing access to fresh water;

• Protecting public health;

• Ensuring public safety in extreme events and protectingcommunity infrastructure;

• Sustaining agriculture;

• Sustaining tourism; and,

• Promoting wise use of marine and coastal resources.

These activities were identified in discussions at the 1998Workshop and subsequent meetings of the steering andorganizing committees, and chosen based on their sensitiv-ity to climate, their role in maintaining the well being ofisland communities, and/or the special values attributed tothe activities by island people. Also explored during theAssessment were the linkages and interactions among theseactivities, and the extent to which interdependencies mightameliorate or exacerbate vulnerability to climate changeand variability. The following sections summarize insightsinto climate-related vulnerability in the Pacific Islands;these insights emerged from the March 1998 and Novem-ber 2000 Pacific Assessment Workshops, as well asindividual small-group discussions with representatives ofkey stakeholder groups, and from analytical studies thatsupported the Assessment.

Providing Access to Fresh Water

As one participant in the March 1998 Workshop noted,“Water is gold.” Water’s value is even greater in islandsettings where surface water is limited if it exists at all,aquifers are small and fragile, and potable water may beavailable only from rooftop catchment systems. Given theprecarious state of island hydrological systems, climatechange or protracted anomalous conditions can haveextreme effects on water supply. For example, during the1982–83 ENSO warm event, Majuro’s reservoir held 6million gallons (Mgal) on January 1. By January 17, thewater had dropped to 4.8 Mgal. By May 1983, totalstorage had dwindled to 0.8 Mgal, most of which wasbeing reserved for the hospital (Republic of the MarshallIslands, 1999).5 Similarly, during the 1997–98 ENSOwarm event, all islands in the North Pacific experienced a

rainfall deficit, and water managers were forced to rationmunicipal water supplies. The Marshall Islands againsuffered the most extreme water shortages; at the height ofthe drought, municipal water on Majuro was only availablefor seven hours every fourteen days.

The problems of limited water supply are intensified byincreasing demand for water. Population growth rates insome Pacific Islands are quite high. The NorthernMarianas, for example, have an estimated annual popula-tion growth rate of 5.6%. The Marshall Islands areestimated to grow at a rate of 4.2% per year and AmericanSamoa at 3.7% (SPC, 2000).6 Further, domestic andinternational migration has contributed to the rapid

Evolution and geology have provided certain Pacific Islands withabundant sources of fresh water. Most, however, are not so bountifullyendowed, and must manage their water with great care, especially inlight of the growing impact of climate variability on this vitalresource.

5 Report from the Republic of the Marshall Islands presented at theWorkshop on ENSO Impacts on Water Resources in the Pacific,held in Nadi, Fiji, October 19–23, 1999.

6 Secretariat for the Pacific Community. 2000. “Selected PacificEconomies— A Statistical Summary”

4

growth of urban centers throughout the region. If thehabitability of small islands and atolls is threatened byenvironmental change, migration to urban centers andhigh islands is likely to increase even more.

In addition to population pressure, economic developmentthroughout the region also presents new demands on waterresources. Tuna processing plants in American Samoa, forinstance, require tremendous amounts of fresh water daily.Tourism, the premier industry in many island economies,is also water intensive. The island of Guam, for instance,had 8,119 hotel rooms in 1997, and the hotel occupancyrate for that year was 82% (Osman, 1999a).7 This suggeststhat on any given day, Guam’s water supply supported6,650 visitors, roughly 4.4% of Guam’s population in1997.

Maintenance of golf courses, a popular tourist attraction,places additional pressure on precious local water resources.On several islands, disputes over access to limited watersupplies have divided communities and entangled stateagencies, private industries and citizens’ groups in lengthylegal battles. On some islands, availability of water is themajor problem, while on other islands, distribution is thefocus of disputes. Long-standing institutional arrangementsfor managing water are challenged to adapt to the com-bined pressures of dwindling supplies and increasingdemands. The search for alternative water suppliescontinues in earnest with research and development intodesalinization projects such as reverse osmosis systems.

After the 1997–1998 ENSO warm event, the islands ofSaipan, Majuro, Yap and Palau all made significantimprovements in water storage and delivery systems. Theseinitiatives have been complemented by efforts to reducedemand and promote efficient water use; new legislation inCNMI, for instance, imposes fines for wasting water.Water management institutions, whether based ontraditional arrangements or administered by municipal,territorial or state agencies, have already benefited fromclimate information in their efforts to predict water supplyand demand and allocate water supplies.

Findings and RecommendationsDiscussions during the Pacific Assessment reinforced theimportance of addressing the adequacy and long-termstability of island water resources. They also highlightedthe importance of effects on fresh-water resources as anunderlying factor in determining the consequences ofclimate variability and change for most activities consid-

ered in the Assessment. During the November 2000Workshop, for example, the importance of understandingclimate-related changes in fresh-water resources was seen asparticularly central to agriculture, including subsistencefarming and fishing as well as cash crops; to fish processingand trans-shipment; to domestic use of water; to tourismand other commercial uses; to public health; and tomaintenance of natural ecosystems. Exploring the implica-tions of competition for this limited resource can be asimportant as understanding the effects of climate variabil-ity and change on any activity individually.

Along with these differences, Pacific Islands share a numberof common characteristics that influence their ability torespond to the effects of climate variability and change ontheir fresh-water resources. For example, Pacific Islandsshare a general reliance on rain-fed sources of fresh water—whether groundwater, surface water or rainfall catchmentsystems— and this reliance on rainfall makes themparticularly sensitive to climate extremes like prolongeddroughts. Furthermore, a reliance on multiple sources offresh water imposes a variety of requirements for waterquality and treatment.

Pacific Islands are experiencing increasing development andpopulation pressures, which are reflected in land usechanges that affect water quality and quantity.

CLIMATE MODERATORS

A number of Pacific Island characteristics influence theeffects of climate on fresh-water resources, including:

• Island type, most notably the differences between “highislands” with greater groundwater and surface-waterassets, and “low islands” with limited freshwater lensesand very little (if any) groundwater sources;

• Demographics, including population growth, overseasimmigration and emigration, and internal migration intourban centers from smaller communities in moreremote, low-lying islands and atolls;

• Remoteness, which is related to the population issuesdescribed above, and to distance from potentialsources of fresh water during emergencies;

• Access to technology, including issues related to theability to acquire new technology and maintain existingor new facilities;

• Economic activity, including reliance on water-intensiveindustries like tourism, agriculture and fisheries asdominant sources of national income; and,

• Social and cultural characteristics, including issuesrelated to land tenure and resource management.

7 Bank of Hawai‘i. Guam Economic Report, October 1999.

5

8 Hawai‘i Supreme Court. 1879. Re: Boundaries of Pulehunui,4 Haw. 239, 241.

The Ahupua‘a Resource Management System used in Hawai‘i is a model of integratedmanagement— it combines science with traditional Hawaiian knowledge and practices tooptimize use and conservation of resources “from the mountains to the sea.”

Storage capacity and water distribution systems in theislands are already stressed; while some improvements (likefixing leaks in distribution pipelines) may be relatively easy,major improvements to infrastructure will require substan-tial economic investments. On many islands, much of thewater distribution infrastructure is old and needs to bereplaced. It is estimated, for example, that water andwastewater improvements on Guam could exceed $250million. As is the case with all activities discussed duringthe Assessment, addressing these basic infrastructureconcerns will be an important first step in improving theability to cope with climate variability and change, as wellas other stresses on water resources.

Discussions about how to enhance the resilienceof Pacific Islands to climate-related stresses on fresh-waterresources focused on responding in three categories: naturalsystems (surface and ground water, watersheds, wetlands,near-shore waters); human and institutional systems(including urban centers, rural communities, governmentagencies and regulatory regimes) and specific economicactivities (e.g., agriculture, tourism, fish processing,domestic use/personal consumption). Table 3.1 summa-rizes key recommendations in each of these areas.

One of the common themes that emerged throughout thePacific Assessment involved exploration of how traditionalknowledge and practices can be applied to today’s climate-related problems and to planning for the future. In the caseof fresh-water resources, this discussion focused on thespecific example of the ahupua‘a resource managementsystem used by early Hawaiians. Ahupua‘a, the ancientHawaiian geopolitical land divisions, ran “from sea soil to

the mountainside or top,” providing the chiefsand the people all that was needed to thrive onthe most remote archipelago on the planet. Asone author describes:

“A principle very largely obtaining inthese divisions of territory was that aland should run from the sea to themountains, thus affording to the chiefand his people a fishery residence at thewarm seaside, together with the productsof the high lands, such as fuel, canoetimber, mountain birds, and the right ofway to the same, and all the variedproducts of the intermediate land asmight be suitable to the soil and climateof the different altitudes from sea soil tomountainside or top.” (Hawai‘i SupremeCourt, 1879)8

The ahupua‘a system evolved in a virtual fresh-water oasisin the largest saltwater desert on earth. It has survived forclose to two thousand years while undergoing numerouschanges and adaptations. A modern version, the Ahupua‘aResource Management System (ARMS), is receivingwidespread attention today because of growing awarenessthat globalization and global warming pose serious threatsto the fragile natural and cultural resources of Hawai‘i. Byintegrating ancient wisdom and modern science, resourcemanagers are finding that the ahupua‘a system addressessuch major challenges as watershed management, ecosys-tem restoration, integrated land and water-use planning,and integrated coastal zone management. Althoughconsideration of the ARMS arose initially in discussionsabout fresh-water resources, this resource managementapproach also can be used to improve resilience in agricul-ture as well as coastal and marine resource management.Because the ahupua‘a system is also a place-based economicsystem, it offers a framework for diversifying the economyof Hawai‘i and other Pacific Islands, and opens upunlimited potential for workforce development as we seekadaptive strategies to meet the challenges of globalizationand global warming.

One of the characteristics of the ARMS is the involvementof experts and stakeholders from all walks of life indiscussions and decision-making. This concept of engagingmultidisciplinary, multisectoral teams of experts in thedevelopment of effective adaptation strategies was arecurring theme throughout the Pacific Assessment.

6

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Underlying such an ap-proach is a fundamentalrequirement: the need tobuild trust and establishlong-term, collaborativerelationships among thediverse stakeholders.Participants in the Assess-ment recommended that thePacific Assessment process becontinued as a mechanismfor establishing suchpartnerships through asustained dialogue on thechallenges and opportunitiesof climate variability andchange.

ProtectingPublic Health

Closely related to fresh-waterresource issues are concernsabout the consequences ofclimate variability and changefor public health. Severalrecent initiatives aim toevaluate the effects of climateand extreme events on health.Though temperature extremescan have direct impacts onhuman health, and severalreports attempt to draw directrelationships between climateand emotional health, it isclimate’s impact on pathogensand disease vectors that maypose the greatest threat to themost people. In Pacific Island communities, the impact ofdroughts on subsistence agriculture and food supplies canalso pose a significant climate-related health risk.

A number of infectious diseases in Pacific Island communi-ties are climate-sensitive, including dengue, leptospirosis,malaria, filariasis, cholera, Ross Valley fever, influenza andother upper respiratory infections, gastroenteritis andcryptosporidiosis. Increases in global travel and trade areincreasing the risk that these and other infectious diseasesmay spread in Pacific Island communities.

Preliminary research on the relationship between climatevariability and dengue fever (a mosquito-borne viral disease)

suggests that the risk of dengue fever may increase duringdry periods in which a tropical storm or cyclone brings abrief period of heavy rainfall. It also appears that in someparts of the Pacific, the risk of dengue is higher duringnormal years and La Niña years than during El Niño years.Rainfall clearly has an impact on mosquito populations,and other research has shown that increases in temperatureincrease the risk of dengue outbreaks. Understanding theselinks between climate and dengue fever is importantbecause, among vector-borne diseases, dengue is secondonly to malaria in numbers of people affected worldwide(Gubler et al., 2001). The relationship between climatevariability and dengue fever, diarrheal disease, cholera,leptospirosis and ciguatera will be explored in a research

7

REDUCING VULNERABILITY TOCLIMATE-RELATED HEALTH RISKS

• Improve hospitals and other healthcare facilities,especially infrastructure related to acute care

• Improve water resource and sanitation infrastructure

• Improve the communication of climate information to thehealth sector and enhance the capabilities of localmeteorological services and climate research programsin the Pacific

• Enhance public health surveillance systems in thePacific

• Enhance healthcare education and training programs

• Improve emergency services delivery systems

• Update and implement comprehensive emergencymanagement programs that address preparedness aswell as response

• Update and implement healthcare plans that emphasizepreventative care

• Integrate existing climate information (e.g., ENSOforecasts) into healthcare and emergency-servicesplanning on a regular basis

• Enhance efforts to integrate traditional knowledge andpractices into discussions of climate and health,including the engagement of traditional leaders andteachers

• Integrate information on climate variability and changeinto planning and decision-making in key sectors, mostnotably water resource management and agriculture

• Pursue community planning and economic developmentprograms that encourage a shift toward sustainability,particularly in water usage and agriculture

• Enhance education and training programs, includingtechnical training for healthcare practitioners andclimate scientists, as well as public awareness andoutreach programs at the local level

• Improve the ways in which information about climateand health is provided, in part by adopting traditionallanguage(s) to convey improved information about localclimate and health conditions

project proposed for the Cook Islands, FSM and Fiji overthe next three years (Hamnett and Lewis, personalcommunication).

Climate change affects ecological conditions that influenceboth human pathogens and the habitats of disease vectors.Climatic and environmental perturbations can create newconditions for infectious diseases. In the aftermath ofTyphoon Nina, which struck in November of 1987, theChuukese suffered an increase in amebiasis, a parasiticdisease associated with fecally contaminated water (FEMA,1992). Similarly, outbreaks of cholera may be associated

with climate variability and extreme events (Pascual et al,2000). Cholera outbreaks can have severe consequences forany community. In calendar year 2000, FSM attributed 19deaths and 709 hospital admissions in Pohnpei State tocholera.

Understanding the vulnerability of human populations toclimate-sensitive diseases and disease vectors is improved bythe use of models that integrate epidemiological methodswith models of complex systems dynamics. For instance,Martens (1999) suggests that, based on “first generation”models of complex interactions, malaria and dengue willenjoy warmer environments, while temperature increaseswould be less conducive to schistosomiasis. Such findingsare even more useful when they incorporate socioculturalvariables that may provide information about the distribu-tion of vulnerability within populations.

In addition to these vector-borne diseases, there are anumber of synergistic relationships that increase thevulnerability of Pacific Island communities to climatevariability and change. There is a strong relationshipbetween both drought and flood and diarrheal diseasesrelated to contamination of water supplies, although theexact nature of those impacts will differ from island toisland (e.g., impacts on high islands with significantreservoirs of freshwater will be different than the impactsexperienced on low islands with limited storage capacity).In this context, Assessment participants gave priority tounderstanding and addressing the health-related conse-quences of extreme events such as prolonged droughts,floods, or hurricanes and typhoons.

Another risk involves the potential for nutritional problemscaused by the effects of climate on agriculture— mostnotably the effects of drought on subsistence crops and theeffects of increasing ocean temperatures (and other climate-related changes) on subsistence fish species. In addition toenhancing the risk of a number of specific conditions suchas anemia and low birth weight, malnutrition also tends todecrease the collective immunity of affected populations.In general it should be noted that geographic isolation, aswell as social, economic and political inequalities, greatlyexacerbate health problems and the delivery of healthcare.

Vulnerability to climate-related health risks is affected bysociocultural practices and beliefs as well. Certain behaviors(such as regular water treatment) or values (regardinghealth, well being and prevention) can be influential inreducing exposure. Public information campaigns arecredited with reducing the incidence of diarrheal disease inPalau and Pohnpei during the 1997 ENSO-related drought(Hamnett, personal communication). Public health in

8

FOCUS: INTEGRATION OF TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND PRACTICE

Another process considered appropriate for infusion oftraditional knowledge and practice was implementation oflong-term, proactive approaches to climate adaptation, acommon theme that emerged throughout the Assessment. Forexample, in early discussions of how best to sustainagriculture, participants recommended embracing the conceptof meninkairoir – a Carolinian word that means “lookingahead” or “taking the long view.”

Yet others expressed serious interest in an ahupua‘aapproach to watershed and resource management, providinganother strong example of the value to many of exploringtraditional approaches to resource management. Such place-based, historical interpretations of the environment cansignificantly enrich contemporary understanding of the localconsequences of climate variability and change. In addition,when we develop a better appreciation for how earlyHawaiians and other indigenous peoples used their compre-hension of climate to support decision-making, we gainvaluable insights into how we might better integrate climateobservations and information into our daily decisions.

For example, during the November 2000 “Workshop onClimate and Island Coastal Communities,” Kumu Hula JohnKa‘imikaua spoke of the importance of people becoming moreaware of the environment around them by using their sensesand na‘au (gut instinct, or intuition), as well as their intellect, tounderstand their relationship to the climate system. Toillustrate, Ka‘imikaua described how early Hawaiianscharacterized the many types of winds on Moloka‘i in terms ofdirection, strength, scent or feel; he added that each of thesedescriptions conveyed an understanding of importantcorresponding conditions such as the availability of certainfish in coastal waters, or the timeliness of planting certaincrops.

In her 1992 book “La‘au Hawai‘i, Traditional Hawaiian Uses ofPlants,” Isabella Abbott noted, for example, “Early westernobservers were impressed with the bounty that the Hawaiianstook from the land and the expertise they showed in manipu-lating their crops. Hawaiian understanding of their plants andthe handling of plant varieties to suit the different ecologicalniches available on each island enabled them to reap anabundant harvest from limited cropland with considerablecertainty.”

By exploring traditional knowledge, people and institutions inthe Pacific today can perhaps relearn the value of greaterpersonal intimacy with the environment that sustains us— andthereby respond more holistically to the cues it continuouslyprovides.

Regardless of the topic being discussed at gatherings for thePacific Assessment, there emerged a strong call for theintegration of traditional knowledge and practice into morecontemporary methodologies of climate observations, research,assessment and response being considered for the region. Thiscall was particularly clear in discussions of how Pacific Islandcommunities might better adapt, or reduce their vulnerability, toclimate variability and change. For example, in discussionsabout possible changes in coastal resource management,repeated emphasis was placed on the importance of evaluatinghistorical experience through the prism of traditional practices,as well as through more recent, “western” managementparadigms.

In this context, the oral histories of indigenous peoples were putforward as a valuable source of knowledge applicable in thecontext of climate assessment. The oral traditions of NativeHawaiians, for example, include the intergenerational transmis-sion of ancient resource management practices encoded instories (mo‘olelo), chants (mele) and dance (hula). Demonstra-tion of these multisensory expressions of ancient wisdom bycontemporary practitioners is a powerful testament to theirsurvival over time, and underscores the claim that traditionalknowledge was intended to continue forever (a mau a mau).Such nonwritten forms of communication can be effective toolsfor public education that transcend not only generations, but alsobarriers of culture and language. Along these lines, it wasrecommended that more be done to enhance the historicalrecord of climate events and adaptations by integrating oralhistories with observations of climate from instrumented records.

Furthermore, traditional leaders and teachers were identified ascritical sources of insights into the vulnerability of Pacific Islandcommunities to climate variability and change, and as importantactors in the development and implementation of adaptationand mitigation strategies. The importance of engaging thesetraditional experts was highlighted in discussions about adaptingthe Hawaiian institution of an ‘aha council, in which all affectedparties work to resolve resource management concerns throughsustained dialogue and shared decision-making.

Traditional leaders and teachers were also identified asimportant information brokers in Pacific Island communities,with a vital role to play in increasing public awareness of thechallenges and opportunities of climate variability and change.In this role, these leaders could facilitate the development andacceptance of effective response options that respect culturalconsiderations, as well as economic and environmental ones.Discussions of public education and awareness furthermoreemphasized the valuable role that local experts can play inpresenting climate information in local languages.

general is supported by the direct intervention of health-care providers, whether they are traditional healers, medicalprofessionals, public health officials or international aidworkers. Through various organizational and institutionalarrangements, these healthcare providers may be respon-

sible for designing and implementing programmaticresponses to public health problems. These projects arelikely to be enhanced by the use of climate information.

9

Findings and RecommendationsThe current state of public health in the Pacific Islands issensitive to climate variability and change largely throughclimate-related effects on infectious diseases, fresh-waterresources and food supplies. The following characteristics ofhealthcare, demographics and socioeconomic conditions inthe Pacific Islands affect the region’s vulnerability to climate:

• variations in availability of and access to healthcarefacilities, especially for communities in remote outerislands;

• a high proportion of substandard facilities;

• a general shortage of doctors, healthcare providers andmedicine;

• variations in cultural acceptability (and hence use) ofhealthcare facilities;

• remoteness from emergency response providers;

• vulnerability to epidemics and diseases introduced to theislands through movement of goods and services fromother places;

• high population growth rates in some islands (e.g., theRepublic of the Marshall Islands) with consequentimplications for limited island resources;

• varying and interrelated status of socioeconomicdevelopment, poverty, nutritional status and sanitaryconditions; and,

• varying levels of education, including health andenvironmental education.

It is important to note that climate variability and changeimpose added pressures on a public health infrastructurethat is already stressed in many Pacific Island jurisdictions.

While the entire population of island communities isexposed to public health risks associated with climatevariability and change, there are a number of groups that areparticularly vulnerable, including the elderly and the veryyoung; individuals with limited access to resources; ruralcommunities with limited water storage, drainage andsanitation; and communities with limited access to immuni-zations and general health support.

Current understanding of the effects of climate variabilityand change on health in the Pacific (and globally) isconstrained by a number of factors; these include:

• limitations on the availability and quality of climatedata, and access to it, on a scale (resolution) compatiblewith health studies, as well as the absence of healthcarestatistics and information on local or subnational scales;

• limited research on specific climate-health connections,such as multidisciplinary case studies that explore thepotential for effective use of climate forecasts andinformation to reduce health risks in the Pacific;

• the need to develop new methodological approaches,as current statistical methods and modeling techniquesdo not always work for climate and health studies;

• the absence of focused exploration and integration ofindigenous knowledge and practices into responseoptions; and,

• the absence of information and research on synergisticrelationships like that between public health and theeffect of climate on agriculture and water resources.

As a result, one of the principal recommendations thatemerged from the Assessment was that support be in-creased for scientific efforts to address these factors. Inthinking about additional ways to reduce the vulnerabilityof Pacific Island communities, a number of actions wererecommended to strengthen infrastructure and enhance thecapabilities of the communities.

In all cases, participants in the Pacific Assessment recom-mended building on the capabilities of existing institutionsand programs such as the Pacific Islands Health OfficersAssociation (PIHOA); health surveillance programsthrough the Pacific Community and similar programs ofthe WHO; the national meteorological and hydrologicalservices, and the PEAC as a critical first step.

Furthermore, participants in the Assessment encouragedcollaboration between sectors and communities withinindividual jurisdictions, as well as among Pacific Islandnations in the pursuit of these recommended actions.Cooperation between islands and among island communi-ties, for example, could prove useful in leveraging resourcessuch as investments in disease control infrastructure anddrugs. Similarly, participants emphasized the importance ofensuring that individual government agencies provide aconsistent message regarding climate and health condi-tions. As noted earlier, climate variability and change mayincrease or decrease the likelihood of a given infectiousdisease but there are many other factors involved, includinghuman behavior. As a result, underlying all of the recom-mendations that emerged from the Assessment was a callfor continuous dialogue and enhanced cooperation amonghealthcare officials and practitioners, scientists, govern-ments, businesses and community leaders, as part of aregional effort to understand and address the consequencesof climate variability and change for Pacific Islands.

10

Extreme events such as tropical storms can have a dramatic effect on lives,property and ecosystems in the Pacific Islands; these consequences make clear theimportance of collaborative efforts to reduce vulnerability to such events.

Ensuring Public Safety inExtreme Events and ProtectingCommunity Infrastructure

Island coastal communities have a long history of weather-ing extreme events. Typhoons, heavy winds, torrentialdownpours, tidal surges and floods have taught pastgenerations about the shear force of nature. Buildings arecollapsed, trees are uprooted and airborne debris becomeslethal projectiles. Unfortunate souls caught in powerfulstorms can be injured or even killed. In December 1997,Typhoon Paka hit Guam with sustained winds of 150–160mph. At least 17 injuries were reported and scores of homeswere destroyed. FEMA provided more than $109 million ofrecovery assistance, but total damages on Guam exceeded$600 million (Guard, 2001, personal communication).Following Typhoon Paka, Guam enhanced enforcement ofbuilding standards (among the strongest in the U.S.) andchanged insurability standards.

Though there are few major rivers in the region, flash floodscan be swift and deadly. The likelihood of extreme floodingand mudslides is increased dramatically when deforestationleaves the already fragile island soils even more vulnerable tothe effects of heavy rains. The incidence of coastal inunda-tion is expected to increase in the islands in coming years,with variations in sea level experienced as both extremeevents and gradual encroachment on coastal areas.

On the other end of the hydrological extreme, droughts canpose threats to public safety, for instance, by increasing therisk of wildfires. Smoke from these fires not only leads torespiratory ailments and skin and eye irritations, it alsodramatically reduces visibility and has been blamed for

plane crashes, boating accidents, and uncountedmotor vehicle fatalities.

The tragedy of extreme climatological events issoftened only by foresight and preparedness invulnerable communities. All of the U.S.-affiliatedislands have some official agency responsible forpreparedness, and for response to damage fromextreme events. Emergency management and civildefense agencies develop disaster response plans andconduct public information campaigns. And theNational Weather Service, thanks to advances inmeteorological monitoring and prediction, can giveadvance warning of tropical storm events. Unfortu-nately, responsibility for mitigation is spread amongseveral agencies and is not as well organized aspreparedness and response. The built environment,

whether concrete and steel or bamboo and pandanus, issusceptible to the forces of nature. Since World War II,government and the private sector have made a tremendousinvestment in homes, public buildings and tourismfacilities. In many areas, however, current buildingstandards leave buildings and infrastructure vulnerable tohigh winds, flooding and coastal erosion. In this situation,if the frequency and severity of extreme events increase,greater losses can be expected in the future.

In Hawai‘i, the Army Corps of Engineers conducted asurvey of the vulnerability of energy and lifeline facilities tohurricanes or tsunamis (Army Corps of Engineers, 1992).They found that numerous electrical power plants andsubstations were located within coastal inundation zones.Similarly, petroleum and gas storage facilities are mostlylocated at sea level, within the commercial harbor areas ofall the Hawaiian Islands. Kaua’i’s experience duringHurricane Iniki provides a compelling example of theimportance of reducing the vulnerability of energy systems;the disruption of Kaua’i’s electrical system by Iniki shutdown operation of the island’s water distribution systemeven though water was available. The situation on theisland of Lana‘i is particularly instructive because, althoughits terminal facilities are not subject to flooding, stormdamage to the breakwater allows waves to enter the harbor,thus preventing fuel barges from entering to off-load fuel;similar scenarios might be envisioned for other criticalshipments.

Also at risk are lifeline facilities, including communica-tions, telephone offices, fire and police stations andwastewater facilities, thus exacerbating the potential threatsto public health and safety already associated with extremeevents (such as hurricanes and storm surge), as well as thepotential long-term implications of sea-level rise.

11

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Findings and RecommendationsIn considering the challenges of ensuring public safety andprotecting community infrastructure, a number of climate-related hazards of concern were identified, includingdroughts; fires (as a secondary hazard often associated withdrought conditions); typhoons, hurricanes and severecyclones (with wind, wave, and rain/flooding hazards);floods and heavy rains (with mud and landslide hazards);episodic high surf conditions; sea-level variation (onvarious time scales) and long-term sea-level rise (withcoastal inundation hazards). Table 3.2 provides estimates ofthe current vulnerability of Pacific Island jurisdictions tosome of these hazards.

ENSO events play a critical role in this region, so partici-pants in Assessment discussions about ensuring publicsafety and protecting community infrastructure decided tofocus specifically on four possible futures: (1) continuationof the current pattern of El Niño events (dry one year andwet the following year); (2) more frequent or “persistent”El Niño (dry) conditions; (3) more frequent heavy rain/

monsoon-like events; and (4) an increase in temperatureand general intensification of the hydrological cycle. Table3.3 provides a summary of how those four potentialconditions might affect the climate-related hazards ofconcern to those charged with ensuring public safety andprotecting community infrastructure.

Setting these possible future scenarios in the context ofexisting experiences, the following conclusions were drawnabout the capacity of Pacific Island jurisdictions to respondto the public safety challenges of climate variability andchange:

• The capability of Pacific Islands to cope with climate-related hazards and natural disasters is already limited.

• There is great dependence on outside assistance duringdisasters, and this dependence increases with the severityof an event.

• Recovery from severe disasters is slow and difficult.

• Should the frequency and/or intensity of individualextreme events increase, islands may be less able toabsorb and recover from disasters.

12

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• Resource-restricted islands find it particularly difficultto absorb a series or combination of disasters, and it isnot clear how or under what conditions emergencyresponse and recovery systems might reach a breakingpoint.

• There are significant differences within the region inthe expected impacts of future climate scenarios, and inthe capabilities of specific jurisdictions to respond tothose impacts.

• While information on standard adaptive techniquessuch as setbacks, seawalls and flood-reduction measuresis fairly readily available, care should be taken to ensurethat designs are appropriate to specific jurisdictions, andthat the impacts of those response options on otheraspects of a community’s vulnerability are assessed; and,

• Appropriate responses depend on a better understand-ing of current conditions and on development of morereliable climate scenarios and site-specific information.

Underlying specific recommendations for enhancing theadaptive capacity of Pacific Island jurisdictions was a call tomove from today’s more reactive disaster-response systemsto systems that are more anticipatory, encompassingdisaster prevention and preparedness as well as emergencyresponse, recovery and mitigation. Such a proactive

approach was viewed as the most economical over thelong term, and would also produce near-term benefits toindividual jurisdictions and the region as a whole. Simi-larly, implementing incremental, near-term adaptivemeasures that respond to today’s patterns of naturalvariability (most notably ENSO events) can result in near-term savings and provide valuable insights into designingstrategies for effective response to long-term climatechange. Iterative, incremental changes represent a morelikely scenario for adaptation to climate change than large,instantaneous changes.

Other recommendations were also made to enhance theability of Pacific Islands to ensure public safety and protectinfrastructure in the face of climate variability and change;these include:

• Improve efforts to monitor and predict climateconditions and changes.

• Integrate existing information about climate variabilityand change (e.g., ENSO forecasts) into emergencypreparedness planning.

• Continuously monitor sea-level changes and use data toevaluate inundation and flooding maps and planningassumptions.

13

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• Shift to more sustain-able systems of waterusage and agriculture.

• Integrate disastermanagement policiesand enhance the flowof information acrossall levels of govern-ment by creatinginteragency, cross-jurisdictional bodiessuch as the govern-ment-wide task forcesestablished in anumber of PacificIsland jurisdictions torespond to the 1997–1998 El Niño event.

• Conduct island- andcountry-level assess-ments of climate-related vulnerabilities,and identify prioritiesfor response options.

• Develop and/orupdate island andmultihazard nationalemergency manage-ment plans.

• Embed emergencypreparedness andresponse needs in asustainable develop-ment planning context designed to improve environ-mental, educational, public health and living standards,as well as to promote economic development.

• Implement and enforce existing hazard mitigationmeasures and policies.

• Increase integration of traditional knowledge, adapta-tion strategies and cultural practices into contemporarydisaster management strategy.

• Take greater advantage of new technologies like lasermapping techniques and computer-assisted decision-support systems like GIS and visualization tools.

• Improve ties between scientists and decision-makers.

• Strengthen education and outreach programs that areresponsive to local needs, and broaden public awarenessand involvement in decision-making.

From the perspective of ensuring public safety andprotecting community infrastructure, nearly all islandcommunities, systems and activities are affected by climatevariability and change. However, it was agreed that effectson fresh-water quality and availability are particularly

critical over the near and long term, and should receivepriority in efforts to reduce vulnerability. As a result,immediate repair of infrastructure problems was stronglyencouraged, as was local assessment of available waterresources (including surface, groundwater and rainfallcatchment systems) and water storage and distributionsystems.

Sustaining Commercial andSubsistence Agriculture

Agriculture, both commercial and subsistence, remains animportant part of the economies of many of the islandsaddressed in this Assessment. Climate-related changes inrainfall and tropical storm patterns present problems foragriculture in island communities, as evidenced by theeffects of the 1997–1998 El Niño event in the Pacific.Agriculture throughout the U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands in1997 and 1998 suffered from the droughts, except onGuam. There, farmers used public water for irrigation, andthe delay of heavy rains toward the end of the drought

14

Commercial and subsistence farming in the Pacific Islands are subject to the sameclimate-induced problems, including drought and salinization of fresh-water sourcesdue to sea-level rise.

resulted in one of the most productive harvests in recenthistory. In the CNMI, citrus and garden crops were mostaffected, forcing the local hospital to buy imported fruitsand vegetables. On Pohnpei, serious losses of both foodand cash crops were sustained, with significant stressevident in more than half the banana trees, and significantlosses in the kava (sakau) crops (Hamnett, Anderson andGuard, 2000).

The greatest percentage of the most productive agriculturalland on these islands is located in low-lying coastal areasthat are at risk from climate-related changes in sea level. Inaddition to problems associated with inundation, saltwaterintrusion caused by sea-level rise would also presentchallenges unless salt-tolerant species could be utilized.

Agriculture in the Pacific Islands is characterized byheterogeneity, which results from differences in localclimatic, soil and hydrologic conditions, and from varia-tions in the mix of subsistence and cash crops. Interislanddifferences can be seen in:

• the cultural context for agriculture;

• economic and market conditions such as proximity tomarkets and the availability of transportation;

• the relationship of agriculture to other relevant sectors,such as water and energy; and,

• the institutions that set and implement agriculturalpolicy, as well as those that support research anddevelop and disseminate information such as weatherand climate forecasts.

This heterogeneity highlights the importance of researchand assessment that focuses on local conditions, institu-tions and cultures when considering climate-related

vulnerabilities in agriculture, including thedevelopment of response options. This reportprovides some regional insights and generalguidelines that could be useful in pursuing suchlocal efforts. For example, the Ahupua‘a ResourceManagement System (ARMS) described earlier inthis chapter represents a place-based approach thatintegrates local variability in climate and resources.

Findings and RecommendationsTwo categories of vulnerability were identified forthe agricultural sector; the first includes vulner-abilities related to the physical environment,including climate-related risks, and the secondincludes social, political and institutional practices.As is the case with all activities addressed in theAssessment, the most critical of these risks areextreme events that can have severe impacts onlocal and regional agricultural production.

Droughts, for example, can reduce yields, with specificimpacts dependent on characteristics such as duration andtiming. Storms can affect agriculturein a number of ways, including crop damage from highwinds and/or flooding, as well as degradation of soil qualityand crop damage from sea-water inundation caused bystorm surge. Natural climate variability, even when it is notmanifested in the form of extreme events, poses a variety ofchallenges to the agricultural sector. Most notable isvariation in the timing and amount of rainfall available forcrop production. Agriculture on Pacific Islands is alsoaffected by a number of pests (plant, animal, fungal andmicrobial) that can have a range of effects on crop produc-tion and are particularly important in areas with little cropdiversity. Table 3.4 summarizes some of the effects ofclimate on Pacific Island agricultural systems.

Finally, agriculture must compete with a number of otheruses for limited fresh-water resources. In their August 2000decision on the Wai‘ahole Ditch case, for example, theHawai‘i Supreme Court used the Public Trust Doctrine tooutline a hierarchy of uses for water distribution duringshortages. Maintenance of trust resources, including publichealth, safety and cultural practices, was held to beparamount, with private sector interests such as agriculturebearing the burden of proof that their uses would not causeirreparable harm to the trust. Like pests, fresh-waterresources themselves are affected by climate variability andchange.

Island governments and citizens are encouraged to developmore resilient agricultural systems that are less susceptibleto damage from storms, drought and salt-water contamina-tion. Specific actions in this context include planting of

15

A traditional staple food in the Pacific Islands, taro (kalo) is often grown in coastal plotsthat are susceptible to climate-related problems such as saltwater contamination. Possiblesolutions to this vulnerability include elevating plots and developing salt-resistant varieties.

traditional famine foods and food-banking crops used asfamine foods; introduction of drought- and salt-resistantcrops; development of emergency preparedness and disastermanagement plans that minimize disruptions to agricul-tural production; and shifting away from monoculture togreater diversity in crop production. Conversion of forestland to mono-crop agriculture and pasture, and shifts inlow-lying areas to mono-crops such as sakau (kava), wereidentified as examples of current trends that may beincreasing the vulnerability of Pacific Island agriculture toclimate variability and change. More diverse agriculturalsystems would provide an important buffer againstdisasters, and increase economic resilience in the face ofmajor disruptions to single crops. As a result, diversifica-tion was advocated as a general strategy to make agricul-tural systems less vulnerable. Traditional practices such asthe Ahupua‘a Resource Management System can provideinsights into approaches that use diversification to enhanceindividual communities’ self-sufficiency and resilience toclimate variability and change. This is because the ARMSapproach encourages development of agriculture that is inconcert with the soils and climate within “micro-regions”as small as individual valleys on single islands.

Addressing climate variability and change in the context ofcomprehensive emergency management plans could reducethe effects of extreme events on Pacific Island agriculture.For example, the new drought mitigation and responseplan in Hawai‘i may make agriculture and ranching in thestate less vulnerable to droughts— so encouragement wasgiven throughout the Assessment to consideration ofsimilar plans and programs in other island jurisdictions.

Adaptations to the problem of saltwater contamination oftaro patches already have been developed in some areas,

and these techniques should be shared; theyinclude construction of elevated (aboveground) taro patches made of coral rubble orconcrete and filled with soil and compost;shifts on some islands to dry-land taro; andplanting drought- and salt-resistant varietiesof taro.

In the second category of agriculturalvulnerabilities (social, political and institu-tional practices), one of the most criticalissues is a significant information gapbetween those who produce informationabout climate risks and those who use (orcould use) that information to makedecisions in the agricultural sector. It wasnoted that scientists, governments, businessesand community leaders could narrow this

information gap by enhancing awareness of availableclimate information; by improving the scientificcommunity’s understanding of decision-makers’ informa-tion needs; by improving the usefulness and usability ofclimate information that addresses specific needs; byestablishing and sustaining enhanced trust and credibilityin forecasts, assessments and other information products;and by providing sufficient resources to support bothscience and a sustained dialogue between scientists anddecision-makers.

Participants in the Pacific Assessment also repeatedly andstrongly encouraged the development, provision and use ofimproved climate information, and highlighted twoexamples of institutions working to reduce the informationgap. One was the PEAC, whose work during the 1997–1998 El Niño was described in Chapter 2. The second wasLand Grant Colleges in the Pacific Islands, which helpgovernments and farmers minimize the effects of extremeevents and recover more quickly from natural disasters. Anexample of this assistance from the Land Grant Colleges istheir cultivation of disease-resistant varieties of crops andtissue cultures, used to produce planting materials follow-ing a disaster; continuation and enhancement of suchefforts was encouraged.

Also noted is the frequent mismatch between the timescaleof climate events and that of political and individualdecision-making. The need for policymakers to respondquickly to current problems can make it difficult to engagethem in discussions of potential future problems, such asclimate change. It was noted that there is a problematictendency toward reactive decision-making instead ofproactive planning, and that long-term, strategic ap-proaches to problems of climate variability and change

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9 The potential value of the concept of meninkairoir to reducing vulnerability to climate variability and change was initially offered by SalvatoreIriarte (FSM) during discussions of climate and agriculture at the March 1998 Workshop on the Consequences of Climate Variability andChange for Hawai‘i and the Pacific.

should be developed. The Carolinian word“meninkairoir”9— which means “looking ahead” or “takingthe long view”— captures the essence of this managementstrategy, which considers the long-term sustainability ofagriculture and provides greater flexibility to respond toextreme events and potential surprises in the climate system.

Land use management policies and practices were identifiedas another contributor to vulnerability in Pacific Islandagriculture. There is tension between the need for govern-ment regulation of land use to minimize potential climate-related threats, and the prerogatives of individual propertyrights and traditional land tenure systems. In some cases,climate-related threats, particularly those associated withextreme events, may require regulation of land use practices.An over-exploitation of limited land resources and degrada-tion of terrestrial and coastal ecosystems could be associatedwith the trend toward increased commercialization ofagriculture and globalization of agricultural industries, forexample. These conditions can increase the vulnerability ofPacific Island communities to the risks of climate variabilityand extreme events. Addressing increasing erosion problemsmay require changes in land use policies. Also needed areenhanced policies and procedures to stop the introductionof alien invasive species, so as to reduce the threat to nativeecosystems and agricultural systems— a threat that mayincrease following extreme events and other disturbances,when invasive species often have a competitive advantage.

Another institutional aspect of reducing the climate-relatedvulnerability of Pacific Island agriculture involves the needfor greater cooperation across levels of government andamong various interests. Given the multi-scale nature ofagriculture (from global markets to individual producers andconsumers) and the multi-scale nature of climate phenomena(from global processes to local effects), coordination acrossdifferent levels of government (from international to local) isnecessary. Greater coordination would minimize inconsis-tency in decision-making at different government levels,which sometimes results in issuance of conflicting incentives.An example is a national farm policy that provides incentivesfor local farmers to grow crops that are inappropriate giventhe constraints on that area’s water resources. Similarly,coordination among different agencies and interests wouldfacilitate understanding of the links between different issues,such as hydrological processes and soil quality; this in turnwould lead to more consistent decision-making (e.g., waterand energy policies that are consistent with agriculturalpolicies and vice-versa).

Sustaining Tourism

Tourism remains a significant contributor to the econo-mies of Hawai‘i, Guam and the CNMI, and is consideredto offer economic growth potential for most of thejurisdictions addressed in the Assessment. Uniqueterrestrial and marine ecosystems are among the naturalassets that draw tourists to the islands of the Pacific.These natural assets are already under stress from pollu-tion and the growing demands of an increasingly coastalpopulation. Sea-level rise associated with climate changecould exacerbate those stresses in a number of ways: byreducing the extent and quality of sandy beaches throughboth inundation and storm-surge erosion; by inundatinglow-lying areas and threatening key infrastructure,including airports and roads; by increasing the risks oftropical storm damage (particularly damage associatedwith storm surge); and by threatening coastal watersupplies through intrusion of salt water into the fresh-water lenses of small, low-lying islands.

Other climate-related changes of concern to tourism

Beautiful beaches and weather are among the Pacific Islandcharacteristics that drive tourism, yet both are already subject to stressfrom pollution and growing coastal populations. Climate changecould generate additional risks for the industry by causing sea-levelrise and compromising fresh-water supplies.

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Irrigation for golf courses and resorts is one among the many demands tourismplaces upon limited fresh-water resources in the Pacific Islands; growingpopulations, agriculture and processing industries are other elements that mustbe balanced in the complex task of water management.

include:

• changes in rainfall patterns, particularly those thatmight bring more frequent and/or severe droughtconditions, thus affecting the adequacy of waterresources that support this water-intensive sector;

• changes in tropical storm patterns, which would havedirect consequences for facilities and infrastructure andcould exacerbate water-resource problems in certainareas;

• changes in temperature and rainfall patterns withattendant consequences for terrestrial as well as coastaland marine ecosystems; and,

• changes in ocean temperature, circulation and produc-tivity, which could affect important marine resourceslike coral reefs and the fish they support.

Findings and RecommendationsDuring the November 2000 Workshop, the tourismworking group introduced its report to the closing plenarywith the following statement: “Tourism is an extremelyclimate sensitive industry and should provide leadership tothe larger community through its response to climatevariability and change.” Examples of the sensitivity oftourism to climate, cited throughout the Assessment,include:

• the effects of ENSO-related drought on the availabilityof water for hotels and resorts, which often are locatedon the leeward (dry) side of islands;

• the vulnerability of the industry to hurricanes andtyphoons, and the need for advance planning andpreparation to protect visitors, as well as facilities andinfrastructure; and,

• the dependence of the industry on marine and coastalresources like coral reefs, which in themselves are

climate-sensitive.

According to industry representatives, these examplesillustrate how climate variability and change affect thefoundation of a sustainable travel and tourism industry:ensuring safe, healthy conditions for visitors andproviding adequate infrastructure to support their needs.

It was noted that the consequences of climate change fortourism could be both negative and positive. Forexample, increased intensity or persistence of El Niñoconditions could lead to prolonged drought in manyislands with adverse consequences for tourism. Climate-related changes in environmental conditions at alterna-tive destinations could increase the number of visitorsinterested in traveling to Pacific Islands. Changes inclimate-sensitive resources like coral reefs, fisheries andtropical forests could jeopardize the tourism business.

A change in sea level poses risks for transportation infra-structure like airports and roads, as well as hotels, restau-rants and other facilities in coastal areas.

It was recognized that, to understand the vulnerability oftourism to climate variability and change, there should bediscussions about response options as well as climateimpacts. In this context, they noted that significant increasesin the cost of diesel and airline fuels, which might arise aspart of a global strategy to mitigate climate change, couldreduce the number of visitors who choose to travel to PacificIslands; nevertheless, they agreed that this possibility shouldnot be used as an excuse to avoid consideration of importantmitigation measures.

In the past, extreme events have galvanized public will andgovernment and corporate action to reduce the sensitivity oftourism to climatic conditions. In Guam, for example, thelosses associated with a Class 5 typhoon in 1962 helped pavethe way for changes in building codes, for the imposition ofa 20% tax for development in low-lying coastal areas, andfor government subsidies and tax exemptions for developerswho choose to build inland. Today, new insights andcapabilities are generating opportunities to further reducetourism’s sensitivity to climate; we know more about therelationship between the ENSO cycle and extreme eventssuch as prolonged droughts or changes in hurricane andtyphoon tracks, and we are better able to predict ENSOevents months in advance. Taking advantage of suchadvances to reduce vulnerability to climate can also havenear-term benefits for the industry. Clyde Mark (then-employed as a risk manager by Outrigger Hotels, Hawai‘i)cited the experience of the general manager of an Outriggerproperty in Australia, who used advance information aboutclimate to anticipate and prepare for the conditions that

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spawned a cyclone that caught other facilities unaware. Asa result, guests at the Outrigger hotel were well-informedand prepared for the event, and hotel management hadtime to ensure that power and water supplies were main-tained by acquiring additional generators and waterpurification systems (Mark, 2000, personal communica-tion).

Discussions of the vulnerability of tourism to climatevariability and change should take into account all stake-holders, including foreign and domestic visitors; employeesand labor unions; hoteliers and restauranteurs; transporta-tion operators (primarily planes and ships in the PacificIslands); activity owners and operators; government andindustry policymakers and planners (including agenciesresponsible for water, energy, transportation, communica-tions, sanitation, economic development and emergencymanagement); convention and visitors bureaus; chambersof commerce; tourism industry associations; developers andconstruction businesses; scientists; and the community atlarge. To make this process manageable, the Assessmentsuggests that discussions should be organized around threebasic systems: community infrastructure; natural resourcesand ecosystems; and governance systems.

In the area of community infrastructure, the recommendedfocus would be improving resilience to climate-relatedextreme events. For tourism, the overarching goal would beto improve the ability of Pacific Island communities toadapt to the ENSO and other aspects of year-to-yearclimate variability, and to integrate considerations of climatechange into long-term facilities planning. The 1999 FSMNational Communication to the United Nations Frame-work Convention on Climate Change notes that “thetourism sector can place significant demands on waterresources and supporting infrastructure” (FSM, 1999). Ofparticular interest to tourism would be reducingclimate-related vulnerability in water resources,sanitation, public health and safety, transportation,energy, communications, visitor accommodations, andsports and recreational activities.

It was recognized that the tourism industry depends onthe health of the islands’ natural resources, most notablytheir coral reefs, forest ecosystems and beaches. TheFSM 1999 National Communication notes that “manytourism opportunities involve capitalizing on marineand coastal resources and, therefore, are likely to placedemands on coastal areas and infrastructure alreadyunder pressure” (FSM, 1999). The industry, therefore,has a responsibility to consider the effects of climatevariability and change not only on its own businesses,but also on the natural systems that sustain it. Detailed

discussions of the vulnerability of these systems areprovided later in this chapter. As noted earlier, however,these critical natural resources are already being subjectedto a number of stresses, and businesses and governmentagencies that support travel and tourism should collabo-rate in development and implementation of effectivemeasures to reduce those stresses.

With respect to governance systems, discussions of climateand tourism focused on four key areas:

• facilities siting decisions;

• facilities design and construction;

• land management policies; and,

• emergency management/disaster preparedness.

Proactive, anticipatory approaches were universallyencouraged, echoing calls for win-win or “no regrets”policies in the discussions of adaptation to climate change.One specific example often cited was reducing the risksassociated with sea-level rise through proper planning fornew facilities and infrastructure. Also encouraged wereconsiderations of alternative approaches to infrastructureplanning and governance, including the use of economicinstruments (such as tax exemptions and subsidies) andinnovative business-government partnerships as well asregulatory measures.

Discussions about governance also highlighted theimportance of recognizing local cultural considerations andtraditional approaches to land ownership, property rightsand resource management. The phrase “one size does notfit all” was echoed throughout the Assessment, cautioningus to recall that what works in one island jurisdictionmight not be appropriate in another. Similarly, theimportance of incorporating traditional land ownershipand stewardship practices reinforces the need to involve

Like tourism, commercial agriculture in the Pacific, in this case pineapplecultivation in Hawai‘i, is among the economic activities most directlyaffected by climate variability and change.

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Critical, low-lying infrastructure in the Pacific islands, like Weno Road in the FederatedStates of Micronesia, is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels and relatedconsequences of climate change (photo by Joseph Konno).

local communities and indigenous peoples in discussionsof how governance might be changed to reduce thevulnerability of Pacific Islands to climate variability andchange.

The importance of improving climate information andcommunication systems was noted throughout discussionsof the climate/tourism nexus, and calls were made specifi-cally for:

• improved forecast and warning systems for extremeevents and other aspects of year-to-year climate variabil-ity;

• enhanced efforts to translate, interpret and disseminateinformation on climate variability and change in a formuseful to the tourism industry and government agenciescharged with infrastructure planning and support;

• baseline information on the consequences of currentpatterns of climate variability for the tourism industry;

• baseline information on critical resources and infra-structure from which to measure/monitor the effects ofclimate change over the long term;

• improved information on the specific regional and localimpacts of climate change projections; and,

• education and public outreach programs to enhancepublic awareness and participation.

Underlying all of these recommendations was a call formore dialogue and interaction among the communities,businesses and government agencies affected by theconsequences of climate variability and change for tourismin the Pacific Islands.

Promoting Wise Use of

Marine and Coastal Resources

Coral reef ecosystems are considered highly vulnerable tolong-term climate change. Yet, because they provideshoreline protection and habitat for important coastal andpelagic fish species, healthy reefs are important assets notonly for tourism and fishing industries but also forresidents of many islands. Unfortunately, significant coralbleaching events have been observed in association withrecent ENSO events, and there are suggestions that suchpatterns might continue or increase with increased oceantemperatures. Climate variability and change pose otherchallenges for coral reefs, including increased water depthcaused by sea-level rise, and the possibility of increased riskfrom tropical storms and hurricanes.

Changes in sea level present a number of challenges toisland coastal communities, ecosystems and facilities. Sea-level variations associated with El Niño events can causeincreased aerial exposure of coral reefs in some westernPacific jurisdictions, and flooding in low-lying areas towardthe central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The conse-quences of accelerated sea-level rise have been the focus ofmost climate-change assessment efforts; they includeincreased risk of shoreline erosion, inundation of low-lyingareas, damage from storm surge, and saltwater intrusionwith its effects on important coastal ecosystems likemangrove forests, fresh-water resources and low-lyingagricultural areas.

Also affected by climate variability and change are coastaland marine fisheries, which are integral to the culture andeconomies of many Pacific Islands. Numerous near-shoreand reef-dwelling fish species are important components of

the subsistence diet in small island communi-ties, and climate-related changes in the habitatsthat support these fisheries would have conse-quences for those communities.

Recent scientific studies have revealed animportant link between patterns of naturalclimate variability, such as the ENSO cycle, andthe migratory patterns of important pelagicspecies like tuna. Hamnett, Anderson andGuard (2000) for example, suggest that theeastward expansion of warm water in the Pacificduring an El Niño is associated with aneastward displacement of some commerciallyimportant tuna stocks such as skipjack. Formany of the Pacific Islands in this Assessment,development of a viable tuna industry isconsidered an important component of theireconomic future. For example, in the FSM, the

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tuna industry within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)is currently the primary focus for economic developmentin the country; access and license fees from distant-waterfishing nations catching tuna in the EEZ are already asignificant source of revenue (FSM, 1999). Starkist Samoaand Samoa Packing are the largest private sector employ-ers in American Samoa, and are among the largest tunacanneries operating within U.S. territory (Hamnett andAnderson, 1999). Changes in the ENSO cycle or otherclimate-related changes in ocean circulation and produc-tivity could bring significant changes to the location oftuna stocks, thus providing opportunities for jurisdictionsthat find themselves close to commercially-importantstocks, and problems for jurisdictions that find themselvestoo far away.

Findings and RecommendationsThe effects of climate variability and change on PacificIsland marine and coastal resources can be categorized intwo ways— effects on human populations and effects onthe natural/biological resources upon which they depend.The most obvious effects on people are caused by extremeevents. Heavy rains, winds and waves associated withhurricanes and tropical cyclones, for example, can threatenpublic safety and damage homes, businesses and infrastruc-ture. Drought can reduce access to safe fresh-waterresources, with implications for public health. Saltwaterintrusion into fresh-water lenses, whether associated with

periodic events or long-term sea-level rise, can furtherjeopardize fresh-water resources, and saltwater inundationcan threaten low-lying agricultural crops. Storm surge andsea-level rise can exacerbate coastal erosion— which isalready significant in some areas— further endangeringcommunity infrastructure and homes. Human migrationsto escape these risks can present significant challenges forboth migrant populations and host communities; culturaldifferences and contrasting interpretations of traditionalproperty rights and land ownership are among the poten-tial difficulties.

Similarly, on islands where subsistence fishing is important,climate-induced changes in the productivity of marine andcoastal ecosystems could alter carrying capacities. Foodsecurity issues could be particularly troublesome if declinesin marine resources used for subsistence coincide withdeclines in agricultural productivity. And the economicviability of related industries such as mariculture could beaffected by climate-related alterations in marine and coastalenvironments.

Marine fisheries represent an important element of PacificIsland economies. The pelagic or highly migratory tunasand billfishes of the Pacific are the basis for an extremelyvaluable fishery. About 70% of the world’s tuna catchcomes from the Western Pacific, and changes in oceantemperature associated with El Niño can significantlychange the migratory patterns of commercially-importanttuna stocks. The access fees that fishing companies payPacific Island jurisdictions to fish in their EEZs oftenrepresent a significant portion of the country’s annualincome. Even when a fisheries sector comprises only asmall part of current GDP, as in the FSM, this sector isrecognized along with tourism and commercial agricultureas providing long-term growth potential (FSM, 1999).

Pacific Island coastal waters support subsistence andcommercial fisheries as well as valuable non-consumptiveactivities like recreational diving. Fish and other marineresources are important sources of protein for many PacificIslanders. These resources can be affected by changes inwater temperature and coral reef habitats, and by increasedsedimentation associated with storms, floods and coastalerosion caused by climate variability and change. Inaddition, coastal ecosystems often have unique andimportant ecological and cultural value. (see boxed text fora summary of climate-induced effects on coastal resources.)

Recent scientific research also suggests that changes inocean chemistry associated with increasing atmosphericconcentrations of CO

2 may be at least as important for

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITYAND CHANGE ON COASTAL ANDMARINE RESOURCES:

• Changes in intertidal environments and speciescomposition caused by sea-level rise

• Increased salinity in coastal estuaries caused by sea-level rise and periodic inundations from extreme events

• Changes in water quality in lagoons, with increasedpotential for red tides identified as a specific concern

• Changes in sea level, salinity and sediment loads (fromerosion) that can affect mangrove forests (although thenet effect of sea-level rise and climate change onmangroves is not well understood)

• Threats to seagrass beds from storm damage andincreased sedimentation

• Changes in temperature, salinity and sea level that canhave direct effects on coral reefs, which also aresusceptible to siltation associated with storms andcoastal erosion

• Changes in temperature and circulation in coastal andmarine waters, which can alter spawning and foraginghabitats for culturally and economically valuablespecies

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The dynamic nature of climate variability and change demands aflexible approach to coastal resource management that can addresslong-term trends such as sea-level rise, and accommodate year-to-yearchanges like those associated with El Niño.

coral reefs as projected changes in ocean temperature andsea level. As increasing amounts of CO

2 infiltrate seawater,

the carbonate saturation level of the water decreases.Preliminary findings suggest that increasing CO

2 levels

could change seawater carbon chemistry sufficiently toaffect the calcification rates, and hence growth, of coral andcoralline algae; this in turn would affect the production ofcarbonate detritus, the source of sand necessary for beachbuilding and shoreline maintenance.

In addition, insular marine ecosystems in the PacificIslands have a great number of endemic species that haveadapted to unique coastal conditions. Climate variabilityand change can alter the local environment and stress theseendemic species, creating opportunities for invasion byalien species. Similarly, threatened or endangered species incritical island habitats could be further stressed by climatechange. The endangered Hawaiian monk seal, for example,relies on unique nesting beaches and foraging habitats atthe northern end of the Hawaiian archipelago. The addedstresses of sea-level rise and storm-related impacts on theseareas could be sufficient to move the seal (and otherendangered species) closer to extinction. Marine ecosys-tems and species that are already heavily stressed due toover-harvesting or habitat alteration, for example, may beless resilient to climate variability and change. In this

context, protected marine areas might be a useful tool forreducing fishing stress and enhancing resilience.

Many ways were identified to enhance the resilience ofPacific Island communities and resources to the effects ofclimate variability and change. The first set of optionsfocuses on development of flexible resource managementapproaches that accommodate climate variations. Centralto these options is a commitment to routinely integrateinformation on climate variability and change intoplanning and regulatory regimes, as well as into resourceharvesting decisions. In addition to improving the flow ofinformation among scientists, governments, managers andbusinesses, this commitment requires sustained climate andecosystem monitoring programs, improved research onclimate/ecosystem interactions, and development of newmodeling and assessment tools (e.g., fisheries and ecosys-tem forecast systems).

Emphasis was given to the importance of planning forextreme events and climate variability rather than justchanges in mean conditions, and to evaluating projectionsof future conditions in the context of past events andhistorical data. Coastal managers encouraged the use ofclimate information, and identified some specific applica-tions, including: use of ENSO-based rainfall forecasts toestablish conditions for construction permits in areassubject to flooding and mudslides; incorporation of ENSOforecast information in decisions about the timing ofrestoration projects; integration of climate considerationsin design of habitat-monitoring programs; and integrationof climate information in growth-management plans.Island-specific case studies were recommended to helpaugment existing information on the consequences ofclimate variability and change. Also encouraged weretargeted pilot projects such as development of sea-level datasets and hazard assessment tools for coastal managers andcommunity planners. Finally, it was suggested thatscientists and decision-makers supplement global analysesand regional forecasts with data on local indicators ofchanging climate. The value of programs like PEAC wasacknowledged in the November 2000 Workshop, leadingto general support for expanding regional abilities todevelop and disseminate climate information.

Flexible resource management approaches require thedevelopment of policies that recognize that ecosystems aredynamic. Since climate variability and change produceconsiderable ecosystem change, management strategies thathandle variations in fishery yields while protectingspawning potential will be necessary. Flexible resourcemanagement policies should be able to accommodaterelocation of fishermen between fisheries, and respond

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rapidly to changes in resource abundance. In this context,a policy is encouraged that incorporates risk, or a precau-tionary approach that recognizes the possibility ofsurprises and sets harvests at conservative levels. Inaddition to responding to changing climate and ecosystemconditions, such a policy would also evolve in response tochanging social and cultural conditions.

Integrated resource management approaches can also beused to control risk when responding to the challenges ofclimate variability and change. For example, Kaluwin andSmith (1997) discuss integrated coastal zone management(ICZM) as a component of an effective response to theeffects of sea-level rise and climate change. According tothe Noordwijk Guidelines promulgated by the WorldBank, the purpose of ICZM is “to maximize the benefitsprovided by the coastal zone and to minimize the conflictsof harmful effects of activities upon one another.” Thissame document refers to ICZM as a “governmentalprocess” consisting of “the legal and institutional frame-work necessary to ensure that development and manage-ment plans for coastal zones are integrated with environ-mental (including social) goals and are made with theparticipation of those affected.” (World Bank, 1993)

It was agreed in the November 2000 Workshop that ICZMcould provide a valuable framework for climate adaptationin Pacific Islands. In addition, emphasis was placed on theidea that “all those affected” should participate in develop-ment of an ICZM process; these include resource manag-ers, government agencies, traditional knowledge sources,policymakers, community leaders, businesses, and scientistsfrom various disciplines. Collaborating to combine theinsights and interests of these parties was seen as essentialto development of any such integrated resource manage-ment approach. Participants in the Pacific Assessment alsoreiterated the suggestion by Kaluwin and Smith (1997)that the general concept of ICZM will require somemodification to accommodate the “Pacific Way.”Specifically, Kaluwin and Smith recommended aPacific ICZM approach that recognizes:

• a high level of community involvement in coastalresource use and management;

• a high level of subsistence economic activity basedon coastal resources and, therefore, an intimateinvolvement with the resource;

• strong customary land and marine tenure systems;

• Existence of strong indigenous cultures withtraditional (and widely accepted and appropriate)decision-making and management mechanisms fornatural resource management;

• cultures and communities that are closely attuned tothe concepts of family and community and the need

for sharing resources;

• a consensus approach to decision-making; and,

• customary resource management practices that arelargely of an integrated nature, not sectoral.

In this latter context, Hawai‘i’s traditional ahupua‘amanagement system was identified as an example of sucha customary management practice.

Reducing the risk of economic losses is another aspect ofresponding to the effects of climate on Pacific Islandmarine and coastal resources. It was suggested, forexample, that in responding to the effects of the ENSOcycle on important tuna stocks, island states mightconsider regional agreements that rely upon revenuesharing to reduce variation in income from fishing accessfees; this would assure that annual income for any oneEEZ would be better insulated from fluctuations infishing in that EEZ. Variation in resource abundancecould result in overcapitalization during periods of greatabundance, which should be avoided to minimizeeconomic and management difficulties during a decline.To reduce this and related risks, island states wereencouraged to reduce their dependence on single fisherysectors; corporations were encouraged to diversify theirareas of operation, and fishermen were encouraged todiversify their target species and fishing techniques. Alsosuggested was development of aquaculture, maricultureand enhancement techniques for wild stocks, although itwas recognized that these activities might also be affectedby climate variability and change.

It was recommended that effective policies and proceduresbe developed to control the introduction of alien species,thereby reducing the vulnerability of marine and coastalresources. This could include, for example, procedures to

Participants in the Assessment noted that the consequences of climate changefor the Pacific Islands could be both negative and positive— but in any caseshould be anticipated and addressed through collaborative planning andmitigation.

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evaluate introduction of species for trade or mariculture,and consideration of the possibility that climate changecan alter local environments, making it easier for exoticsto become established.

It was agreed that successful integration of climateinformation into routine decision-making will requiredevelopment of local cadres of knowledgeable individuals.Educational outreach was encouraged to increase thepublic’s awareness and understanding of the consequencesof climate variability and change and to increase theavailability of useful and usable climate information.Outreach efforts should be designed to provide climateinformation that is simple, unambiguous and culturallyappropriate; to expand the availability of climate curricula,particularly for K–12 classrooms; and to develop anddisseminate climate information tailored specifically fortarget audiences such as local planning bodies, governmentagencies, industry groups and communities.

Common Themes

In addition to the findings and recommendations aimed atreducing climate-related vulnerability in individual sectors,a number of common themes emerged from PacificAssessment discussions of the consequences of climate

variability and change.

For all activities, current patterns of climate variability(most notably ENSO events) already present significantchallenges for Pacific Island communities, and significantbenefits can accrue from enhancing capabilities to antici-pate and adapt to those events.

To respond effectively to climate variability and change, aninformation-intensive endeavor, there is a need for timely,useful and usable information derived from a continuingdialogue among scientists and decision-makers.

When thinking about climate-related vulnerability, it isimportant to consider the effects of climate on multiple,interacting sectors or activities, as well as within specificsectors or activities (e.g. the effects of climate change onfresh-water resources has implications for public health,agriculture, tourism and coastal resources). Effectiveresponses can only be developed after consideration of allthese interactions. In addition to considering interactionsamong sectors, there is a need to promote consistency inplanning and policy formulation at different levels ofgovernment, from local to regional, and with sponsoringor donor agencies outside the region.

In all topical areas addressed by the Pacific Assessment,

The health of marine and terrestrial ecosystems in the Pacific Basin is dependent to a large degree on climate. Continued research and collaborativeplanning will enhance the ability of Pacific Islanders to anticipate and respond to the effects of climate variability and change— and maintain thehealth of their ecosystems.

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participants highlighted the absence of reliable baselineinformation and the lack of island-specific vulnerabilitystudies. Addressing this gap was identified as a highpriority for continuing climate assessment activities in thePacific.

There is a need for more formal and informal education,training and public outreach to strengthen efforts toanticipate and respond to the consequences of climatevariability and change.

And finally, there is a need for proactive, forward-lookingapproaches to responding to climate variability andchange— precautionary approaches that allow greaterflexibility in response and reduce the adverse effects ofsurprises, as well as the costs of responding. This approachwas characterized earlier in this Chapter by the Carolinianword “meninkairoir,” which means “taking the long view.”

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2

CHAPTER FOUR—PLANNING FOR THE 21st CENTURY

Responding to ClimateVariability and Change inthe Pacific Islands

Participants in the Pacific Assessment were asked toconsider not only the effects of climate in island settingsbut also what island communities could do to respond tothose effects. In addition to the sector-specific findings andrecommendations described in Chapter Three, a number ofshared principles have emerged to guide climate responsestrategies in Pacific Island communities:

• Respect the unique circumstances of island communi-ties, and the political, cultural, economic and environ-mental diversity among island communities;

• Strengthen partnerships among scientists, businesses,governments and communities through a continuousdialogue that identifies information needs and supportsdecision-making;

• Pursue flexible resource management and responseoptions that accommodate surprises and facilitateadaptation to natural variability;

• Emphasize a proactive, precautionary approach toaddressing the consequences of climate variability andchange, and provide for continuous integration of newscience and decision-making;

• Leverage the capabilities and resources of existingprograms and organizations to respond to climatevariability and change;

• Address stresses and constraints on critical infrastruc-ture such as water distribution systems, and on commu-nity services like public health;

• Enhance access to climate information to better addresstoday’s problems while developing new insights andplanning for the future; and,

• Recognize the need to secure and sustain the necessaryhuman and fiscal resources, and pursue education,training and capacity-building as a fundamentalcommitment.

The Uniqueness of Island Communities

Throughout the Assessment, participants emphasized theneed to recognize the special characteristics of islandcommunities when thinking about climate vulnerability

and response options. Concerns raised during theAssessment echoed earlier discussions of the vulnerabilityof island communities to natural hazards such as thosesummarized by Leatherman in Island States at Risk: GlobalClimate Change, Development and Population (1997).Among the issues of island vulnerability identified byLeatherman (and emphasized during the Assessment) were:

• The unique natural and cultural assets of each islandjurisdiction;

• The small geographic size and limited resource base ofisland communities;

• The relative isolation of island communities, includingissues related to their distance from markets and theirreliance on shipment of goods and materials by air orsea;

• The susceptibility of many island communities toweather extremes such as hurricanes, and other naturalhazards;

• The susceptibility of island economies to externalshocks, and the often low resilience of the subsistenceeconomies found on many islands; and,

• Constraints on fiscal and human resources, andlimited access to data and information.

In discussing some island-specific limitations of the IPCCCommon Methodology for coastal vulnerability assess-ments in the Pacific, Kaluwin and Smith (Leatherman,1997) identified the need to consider additional issues suchas:

• The close ties of people through customary land tenure;

• Gift-giving and readmittance as a mechanism forextended family economic resilience;

• Lack of urban land-use planning or building codes insome jurisdictions;

• Ineffective linkages among levels of government;

• The decision-making powers of village communities;and,

• The strength of religious beliefs.

In addition, participants in the Assessment stressed theimportance of treating traditional knowledge and indig-enous resource management practices as potential assetswhen considering options to reduce the vulnerability ofPacific Island communities to changes in climate.

3

Research Requirements

A number of critical information gaps and high-priorityresearch needs were identified that should be addressed toreduce vulnerability to climate changes. In particular, dataon climate change at the local or regional level in thePacific Islands are often missing or inaccessible; specificpriorities for future research include:

• Enhancing efforts to monitor, document, understandand model climate processes and consequences at local,island, national and regional levels;

• Strengthening support for research and observingsystems for meteorological/atmospheric, oceanographicand terrestrial variables in Pacific Islands, including theengagement of local observers and practitioners in thedesign and operation of climate observing systems;

• Improving information on the nature and conse-quences of climate conditions such as temperature,rainfall, tropical storms and trade winds, as well aspatterns of natural variability (including ENSO andPDO) and how they might change;

• Developing reliable projections of climate change andpredictions of climate variability on various timescales;

• Improving baseline information, including that on thephysical, human and built environments, to bettersupport monitoring and assessment studies at local,island, national and regional scales;

• Improving historical data sets that incorporate observa-tions and insights from scientific and traditional sources(including anecdotal data) to better document pastclimate variability and the resilience of Pacific Islandcommunities and ecosystems;

• Improving understanding of extreme events, from thefrequency and severity of tropical cyclones and ENSOevents to trends in heavy precipitation, includingcurrent patterns of frequency and severity and im-proved projections of how those patterns mightchange;

• Enhancing information on patterns of resource use,ecosystem change and species diversity at local, island,national and regional levels, including informationfrom local practitioners on habitat changes andresource availability in areas traditionally used for

FOCUS: CRITICAL RESEARCH AND INFORMATION NEEDS

see “Critical Research Needs” on next page...

The following information and research needs could also beaddressed to enhance the capability of Pacific Islandcommunities to respond to climate variability and change.

Providing access to fresh water

* Prepare island-specific inventories of freshwater resourcesavailable from rainfall, surface water, groundwater andsubmarine groundwater discharges (freshwater flows thatemerge below the high tide level along the coast);

• Develop historic baseline information for water tables;

• Evaluate groundwater capacity;

• Prepare long-term forecasts of climate variability (ENSOand monsoon activity), paying particular attention toadvance prediction of drought events, especially onset,severity, duration and demise;

• Sustain commitments to collection of basic data on rainfall,stream flow, water/well levels, and climate; and,

• Develop enhanced demographic mapping capabilities thatcan be combined with other data.

Protecting Public Health

• Enhance studies and expand information on the linksbetween climate variables (e.g. temperature, rainfall andtropical cyclones) and infectious diseases (includingvector-borne diseases and freshwater and diarrhealdiseases);

• Identify disease- and vector-specific environmental triggersand thresholds;

• Improve understanding of the health-related consequences

of climate variability and change on key sectors, particularlywater resources and agriculture;

• Encourage integration of local knowledge and traditionaladaptation practices in the development and implementa-tion of response strategies;

• Explore “contextual vulnerability” in terms of nutritionalstatus, immune status, previous control efforts and previousexperience with extreme events, especially droughts;

• Conduct case studies to document use of climate forecastinformation in health applications, and address issuesrelated to the multi-year sequences of events that linkclimate variables to changing health conditions;

• Compile the results of United Nations and other studies ofhealthcare, public health and disasters in the Pacific, andcreate linkages to existing public health and emergencyresponse information centers and programs;

• Update plans for provision of healthcare services andemergency healthcare plans;

• Reconcile differences in scale among climate, health,socioeconomic and other data, and adapt GeographicInformation Systems (GIS) for use in studies of climate inisland settings;

• Develop higher-resolution data on both climate and healthvariables, and localized data on climate and health;

• Develop and evaluate new methodological approaches tosupplement current statistical methods, which do notalways work for climate and health studies.

4

subsistence gathering and fishing;

• Improving information on changing demographic,economic and environmental patterns and trends at thelocal, island, national and regional scales, includingprojected changes in development (e.g., population,infrastructure, etc.);

• Enhancing efforts to identify and evaluate adaptationmeasures;

• Enhancing efforts to document and understand thelocal, island, national and regional consequences ofinternational climate change policies and mitigationmeasures;

• Developing standard methods and tools for datamanagement and quality control; and,

• Enhancing communication and coordination amongresearch institutions, data centers and regional

Ensuring Public Safety in Extreme Events andProtecting Community Infrastructure

• Develop site-specific models of climate change conse-quences for extreme events;

• Improve understanding of the South Pacific ConvergenceZone, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the PacificDecadal Oscillation (also known as Interdecadal PacificOscillation) as they affect extreme events;

• Conduct topographic, hydrographic and other mapping athigher resolutions to better support risk analyses ofislands, atoll islands in particular;

• Improve and diversify tools used to assess economic andsocial impacts of climate extremes;

• Conduct island-specific vulnerability assessments of at-riskpopulations, critical industries and infrastructure;

• Assess and identify critical gaps in emergency responsecapabilities, including the roles of agencies at all levels ofgovernment;

• Continuously monitor sea-level variability and trends overthe short- and long-term, and use the data to examineinundation and flooding and develop predictive capabilities;and,

• Formulate contingency plans for specific disasters in eachisland jurisdiction.

Sustaining Agriculture

• Collect and disseminate information on drought- and salt-resistant varieties of subsistence and cash crops that haveproven resilient in Pacific Island settings;

• Improve access to climate variability forecasts (e.g., ENSOforecasts) for agricultural agencies, extension agents,farmers and ranchers;

• Conduct additional research on the implications of the lossof freshwater lenses due to climate variability and change,for both marine and terrestrial ecosystems;

• Enhance information on the relationship between droughtsand mangrove die-back;

• Evaluate alternative crops that are less susceptible todrought damage and are acceptable alternatives totraditional crops; and,

• Evaluate wildfire risk-models used in Pacific Islands.

Sustaining Tourism

• Document the effects of current climate conditions on thetourism industry;

• Improve forecasts of climate variability and develop moredefinitive projections of the consequences of climate changeon the tourism industry;

• Develop appropriate baseline information on climate andcommunities, and monitor change over time;

• Enhance information about the effects of climate variabilityand change on the ecosystems and natural resources thatsustain tourism, such as coral reefs, fisheries and forests;

• Improve understanding of the effects of climate variability andchange on critical infrastructure (e.g., fresh water access,storage and distribution; accommodations; waste disposal;transportation; energy; communications; and food services);

• Improve understanding of the effects of climate variability andchange on extreme events and other threats to public safetyand health; and,

• Explore the direct and indirect consequences of proposedmitigation strategies on tourism (e.g., possible increases infuel prices as a result of carbon taxes or other economicmeasures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions), and thepotential impacts of tourism (e.g., land use/land coverchange) on climate change and response options.

Promoting Wise Use of Marine and Coastal Resources

• Improve information on the range of climate variability, andenhance understanding of ecosystem responses to climatevariables such as temperature, salinity, precipitation andstorms;

• Develop ecosystem and fisheries forecast models thatintegrate oceanographic and atmospheric data on patterns ofclimate variability and change;

• Identify indicators of sublethal, climate-related stress, as wellas climate indicators with predictive, and hence management,value;

• Improve understanding of the interactions among land, waterand coastal resources, and the consequences of climatevariability and change for an integrated island system;

• Strengthen programs dedicated to long-term monitoring ofecosystems and relevant human activities, to ensureadequate documentation of baselines and responses toclimate variability and change; and,

• Develop and use new tools to measure population abundanceand productivity of fisheries.

“Critical Research Needs” continued...

5

organizations/programs, and improv-ing mechanisms for access to usefuland usable information.

A great deal of additional research couldbe conducted and information gatheredto enhance the capability of Pacific Islandcommunities to respond to climatevariability and change; these needs areitemized in the Focus sidebar “CriticalResearch and Information Needs.”

Digitizing Data from Oral Traditionsand Historical DocumentsParticipants in the Pacific Assessmenthighlighted the importance of incorporat-ing data and information on local climatevulnerability and adaptation drawn fromoral traditions and historical documents.One specific recommendation involves afocused effort to digitize these oraltraditions and historical documents inwritten, photographic and video formatsand compile them into a database indexed by place name,resource or practice. Combining these digitized recordswith GIS mapping tools could provide a means tojuxtapose “then and now” visual perspectives or presentclimate data alongside information on historic and culturalpractices.

This approach has recently been proposed as part of aprogram to monitor water quality in the Ala Wai Canal inHonolulu, where historic photographs of fishing in thecanal could also be adapted for use in a climate monitor-ing system that would combine western science withtraditional knowledge in a web-based information system(Stephen Kubota, personal communication).

Building and SustainingCritical Partnerships

Successful implementation of Assessment objectives willrequire long-term capacity building and development ofnew partnerships that can help reduce the vulnerability ofisland communities to climate change by:

• improving access to and use of information on climatevariability and change to support decision-making;

• conducting additional research and analysis to improveour understanding of the sensitivity and exposure ofisland communities, and to enhance their resilience;

• supporting education and dialogue in communities,through which governments, businesses, resourcemanagers and citizens can prepare for the challenges of

climate variability and change; and,

• developing effective local, national and regionalstrategies to respond to climate variability and change.

Perhaps the most important aspect of these discussionswas the conclusion that the Pacific Assessment should bea continuing process with an overarching goal of nurtur-ing critical partnerships to develop climate information tosupport decision-making. These partnerships will enhancethe ability of scientists and decision-makers throughoutthe Pacific to understand and respond to the challengesand opportunities presented by climate variability andchange.

In this context, the Assessment can be viewed as part of acritical scientific and decision support system that willbridge the science-decisions “information gap” identifiedduring the March 1998 Workshop and recognized as aproblem throughout the Assessment. This bridge willhelp develop and convey new scientific insights that linkglobal-scale processes to local impacts; it will also allowexperts, decision-makers and information brokers tointegrate their individual skills and informational assets toaddress climate-related problems along a continuum oftime and space scales.

As depicted in Figure 1 (Chapter One), this “informationbridge” originally focused on linking the scientificcommunity with decision-makers (or “information users”)in government, businesses and communities. In their

Climate prediction and assessment depend upon information gathered at research facilities suchas the NOAA atmospheric observatory atop Mauna Loa, in Hawai‘i; this facility providessustained observations of CO

2 and other greenhouse gases that are vital to understanding the

influence of human activities on the earth’s climate.

6

10 Ahupua‘a extended “from sea soil to the mountainside or top,” with broad bases anchored in offshore fishing grounds, and apexes in montaneforests, providing almost all resources the chiefs and people needed to thrive on the most remote archipelago on the planet.

1999 report, Our Common Journey: A Transition towardSustainability, the Board on Sustainable Development atthe National Research Council (NRC) highlighted theimportance of such regional information systems, which“harness scientific knowledge to support policy anddecision-making affecting the interactions of environmentand development” (NRC, 1999).

The NRC report further reinforces the importance of this“social process that builds links to different communities”as essential to assembly of the diverse information required

to understand and address regional environmentalmanagement. During the Assessment, this conceptevolved into a call for a long-term process of sharedlearning and joint problem-solving that involves all partiesinterested in the consequences of climate change.Participants in the Assessment found a traditional analogfor this multi-stakeholder dialogue in the Hawaiianinstitution of an ‘aha council. The ‘aha council was theprincipal mechanism for decision-making as it related tomanagement of resources in the ahupua‘a, the ancientHawaiian geopolitical land division.10 The ‘aha council

FOCUS: DEVELOPING A PACIFIC ISLANDS CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM

In July 1999, the East-West Center and SPREP convened aninformal meeting to discuss the concept of a Pacific IslandsClimate Information System (PICIS)— a new mechanism tocoordinate and focus the work of numerous organizations andprograms engaged in climate observation, research,forecasting and assessment in the Pacific. In attendance atthe meeting were representatives of SPREP, PEAC, and:

• several national meteorological services in the region,including the U.S. National Weather Service, the AustraliaBureau of Meteorology, and the Fiji Meteorological Service;

• the South Pacific Applied Geosciences Commission(SOPAC);

• the World Meteorological Organization;

• the Schools of the South Pacific Rainfall Climate Experi-ment (SPaRCE);

• the University of Waikato’s International Global ChangeInstitute;

• the International Research Institute for climate prediction(IRI);

• the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration;and,

• the U.S. Department of Energy.

By the end of the meeting, participants had agreed to take thenext steps in creation of a PICIS that would build a “knowl-edge bridge” between sources of scientific information andpotential users of that information in Pacific Island communi-ties, businesses and government agencies. Discussions at themeeting identified the following goal for a PICIS: Combine theunique assets and special expertise of national, regional andinternational institutions and programs to develop andstrengthen a regional climate information system that willsupport decision-making in the context of climate variabilityand change. As discussed during the Tahiti meeting, thepartners in the PICIS would pursue a number of specificobjectives to fulfill this goal, including:

• sustain or enhance monitoring of critical climate-related

conditions and their environmental and socioeconomicconsequences;

• provide access to emerging climate forecasting capabili-ties;

• support development and evaluation of new climatemonitoring and prediction tools, and explore potentialapplications for those tools;

• transform global-scale predictions into regional forecaststailored to incorporate local and regional processes andreflect the information needs of regional stakeholders;

• establish and sustain a dialogue among scientists,forecasters and other stakeholders to identify informationneeds and evaluate the quality, usefulness and usability ofnew climate forecasts and information products;

• enhance the expertise and technical capabilities ofnational meteorological services in the Pacific Region, andprovide access to new tools and information to supporttheir responsibilities;

• conduct research to improve understanding of the regionalconsequences of climate variability and change, andexplore the potential application of enhanced climateinformation to support practical decision-making;

• provide information and analyses to help Pacific jurisdic-tions address the challenges of climate variability andchange and sea-level rise, including national andinternational assessment programs and national efforts inresponse to the United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change;

• support regional capacity-building through training,education and public outreach that improves technicalcapabilities and expertise throughout the region, andenhances public awareness of the consequences ofclimate variability and change; and,

• preserve free access to climate data and products fornational meteorological services and other organizations inthe Pacific Region. A PICIS Working Group has beenorganized under the auspices of the SPREP to pursuethese objectives.

7

provided a forum for all experts in the ahupua‘a tocontribute to decisions about the natural resources onwhich they depended. Participants in the November 2000Workshop suggested that this concept could be adapted tocreate an “‘aha council for climate” in the Pacific Islands.

Regardless of whether one thinks of climate assessment asa multidisciplinary, integrated scientific endeavor, or as atraditional approach to participatory resource manage-ment, the successful engagement of experts from allknowledge groups requires a shared commitment to asustained effort to identify and respond to real problemsfacing people in the Pacific Islands. Participants in thisAssessment are committed to this process and will pursuefunding to ensure that partnerships established early in theassessment can be maintained and enhanced.

Other recommendations also emerged from discussions ofcooperative partnerships during the Assessment; theyinclude:

• Strengthen and sustain institutions and programs likethe PEAC that support decision-making by providingand applying climate information;

• Integrate traditional cultural knowledge and practicesby engaging traditional leaders, teachers and practitio-ners;

• Enlist the aid of religious and spiritual leaders tostrengthen efforts to understand and respond to climatevariability and change;

• Leverage the capabilities of information brokers skilledin the interpretation and translation of scientific,technical and cultural information, especially organiza-tions like national meteorological services, universities,research institutions, scientific/environmental/economicorganizations, and industry and professional associa-tions;

• Encourage continued regional collaboration tostrengthen individual and collective efforts;

• Pursue multidisciplinary scientific investigations toimprove understanding of climate processes andconsequences, and to foster partnerships with interna-tional climate science programs (e.g. World ClimateResearch Program efforts, including CLIVAR and theGlobal Climate Observing System, and research projectsconducted under the auspices of the InternationalGeosphere-Biosphere Programme and the InternationalHuman Dimensions of Global Change Program);

• Pursue partnerships with private companies, particu-larly in areas such as agriculture, tourism, water-resourcemanagement and infrastructure development;

• Establish cross-sectoral teams (e.g., water managers,

emergency preparedness experts and public healthofficials) to address common problems arising fromclimate variability and change;

• Support interisland cooperation in climate and healthin order to leverage investments in areas such as diseasecontrol infrastructure, drugs and insecticides;

• Encourage integration of climate-related policies, plansand decisions across levels of government and betweendonor agencies; and,

• Enlist decision-makers in the identification of climateinformation needs, then establish “science user teams”to develop and regularly improve climate informationproducts to meet those needs.

Also highlighted was the importance of building trustamong the diverse involved groups representing scientists,businesses, government agencies and community leaders.Achieving this objective also requires sustained cooperationand dialogue among scientists and decision-makers. Asdescribed in the Focus sidebar on the 1997–1998 El Niño(Chapter 2), the success of regional efforts to anticipateand respond to the 1997–1998 ENSO warm event wasbased in part on a history of outreach and education by thePacific ENSO Applications Center; the success was alsorooted in a sense of shared responsibility that had emergedamong PEAC scientists and government officials through-out the region. Both groups emphasize that their sustainedinteraction prior to the ENSO warm event generatedconfidence in the quality of scientific informationprovided by PEAC, and in the ability of decision-makersto integrate that information into their decisions. ThePEAC experience and discussions during the Assessmentsimply reiterate the value of this kind of sustained,interactive climate information system.

Next Steps—A Look to the Future

In response to findings and recommendations developedduring the Assessment, commitments were made to anumber of specific actions. First and foremost, the corescientific team will work with colleagues and fundingagencies to secure the resources required to sustain thedialogue and scientific exploration that characterizes theAssessment. Future efforts will be embedded withinemerging plans for a Pacific Islands Climate InformationSystem, as described earlier in this Chapter.

Other actions already under way or planned include:

• Development of collaborative research projects in areas

8

such as the interaction of climate variability withinfectious diseases, and the potential for use of theahupua‘a system, integrated with climate information,for watershed management in Hawai‘i;

• Preparation of National Implementation Strategies injurisdictions like the Federated States of Micronesiaand the Republic of the Marshall Islands as part of thenext phase of the SPREP-sponsored Pacific IslandsClimate Change Assistance Programme;

• Identification of reports, graphics, and other informa-tional materials that can be used to support educationprograms on climate variability and change in theregion;

• Enhancement of education and training programsfocused on the implications of climate variability andchange for the Pacific Region (e.g., the vulnerabilityand adaptation course at the University of the SouthPacific, and the February 2001 “Training Institute onClimate and Society in the Asia-Pacific Region” held atthe East-West Center);

• Initiation of a series of small-group discussions with

indigenous community leaders to explore the meaning-ful integration of traditional knowledge into studies ofthe nature and consequences of climate variability andchange;

• Initiation of a series of small-group meetings andworkshops with businesses, government agencies andcommunity representatives in key economic sectors suchas tourism, fisheries and agriculture; and,

• Use of presentations and formal and informal publica-tions to disseminate the results of the Assessment to abroader regional and international audience, includingregional organizations and professional associations inkey sectors.

Concluding Thoughts

Rather than an end product, this report on the PacificAssessment represents the beginning of a sustained processof dialogue and information exchange among scientists,businesses, governments and communities in the region.Working together, these diverse stakeholders can coordinateand leverage their assets and expertise to support a climateinformation partnership that will:

• clarify the information needs of decision-makers andidentify critical information gaps to help guide futureresearch;

• improve access to climate information and explore theuse of innovative communication and decision-supporttools;

• provide access to critical data and translate researchresults into useful information; and,

• increase the number of professionals who develop anduse climate information to support decision-making, andexpand education and training opportunities for them.

Together we can combine our individual assets and collec-tive insights into a new paradigm of climate awareness andresponse. We can embrace the opportunity to use newscientific insights to improve the use of climate informationto support decision-making. And we can — and will—surmount the challenges of climate variability and changeand establish a closer partnership between the people of thePacific and the climate system that sustains us.

The emerging Pacific Islands Climate Information System willcombine the expertise of national, regional and internationalinstitutions to support social and political decision-making in thecontext of climate variability and change.

9

The Pacific Assessment has begun a dialogue amongst regionalstakeholders that is intended to develop a new paradigm of climateawareness and response— and to surmount the challenges posed bychanging climate.

10

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2

APPENDIX A— OVERVIEW OF THE NATIONAL ASSESSMENT

Rationale and Institutional History

The influence of climate permeates life and lifestyles in theUnited States. Year-to-year variations are reflected in suchthings as the number and intensity of storms, the amountof water flowing in our rivers, the extent and duration ofsnow cover, and the intensity of waves that strike ourcoastal regions. Science now suggests that human activitiesare causing our climate to change. Although details are stillhazy about the extent of changes to come in each region ofthe country, changes are starting to become evident.Temperatures have increased in many areas, snow cover isnot lasting as long in the spring, and total precipitation isincreasing, with more rainfall occurring in intense down-pours. These changes appear to be affecting plants andwildlife. There is evidence of a longer growing season innorthern areas and changing ranges for butterflies andother species. The international assessments of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch) project that these changes will increase overthe next 100 years.

The Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law101-606) gave voice to early scientific findings that humanactivities were starting to change the global climate,reporting that “(1) Industrial, agricultural, and otherhuman activities, coupled with an expanding worldpopulation, are contributing to processes of global changethat may significantly alter the Earth’s habitat within a fewgenerations; (2) Such human-induced changes, in conjunc-tion with natural fluctuations, may lead to significantglobal warming and thus alter world climate patterns andincrease global sea levels. Over the next century, theseconsequences could adversely affect world agricultural andmarine production, coastal habitability, biological diversity,human health, and global economic and social well-being.”

To address these issues, Congress established the U.S.Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) andinstructed federal research agencies to cooperate indeveloping and coordinating “a comprehensive andintegrated U.S. research program that will assist the Nationand the world to understand, assess, predict, and respondto human-induced and natural processes of global change.”Furthermore, Congress mandated that the USGCRP “shallprepare and submit to the President and the Congress anassessment which:

• integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of theProgram and discusses the scientific uncertaintiesassociated with such findings;

• analyzes the effects of global change on the naturalenvironment, agriculture, energy production and use,land and water resources, transportation, human healthand welfare, human social systems, and biologicaldiversity; and,

• analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for thesubsequent 25 to 100 years.”

Objectives of the Assessment

The USGCRP’s National Assessment of the PotentialConsequences of Climate Variability and Change is beingconducted under the provisions of this Act, and seeks toanswer questions about why we should care about, andhow we might effectively prepare for, climate variabilityand change.

The overall goal of the National Assessment is to analyzeand evaluate what is known about the potential conse-quences of climate variability and change for the nation, inthe context of other pressures on the public, the environ-ment, and the nation’s resources. The National Assessmentprocess has been broadly inclusive, soliciting and acceptingpublic and private input from academia, government, andinterested citizens. Starting with broad public concernsabout the environment, the Assessment is exploring thedegree to which existing and future variation and change inclimate might affect issues that people care about. TheAssessment has focused on regional concerns around theU.S. and national concerns for particular sectors, relyingupon a short list of questions to guide the process; thesequestions are:

• What are the current environmental stresses and issuesthat form the backdrop for potential additional impactsof climate change?

• How might climate variability and change exacerbate orameliorate existing problems? What new problems andissues might arise?

• What are the priority needs for research and informa-tion that can better prepare the public and policymakersto reach informed decisions about climate variabilityand change? What research is most important tocomplete over the short term, and over the long term?

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• What coping options exist that can build resilience tocurrent environmental stresses, and possibly also lessenthe impacts of climate change?

Structure of the Assessment

The National Assessment has three major components:

• Regional analyses— these consist of workshops andassessments conducted to identify and define thepotential consequences of climate variability and changein regions spanning the U.S. Twenty workshops wereheld around the country, with the Native Peoples/Native Homelands Workshop being national in scoperather than regional. To date, sixteen workshop groupshave prepared assessment reports that address theparticular interests of people in their regions by focusingon regional patterns and textures of changes wherepeople live. Most workshop reports are already availableat http://www.nacc.usgcrp.gov, with the final reportsbecoming available in late 1999.

• Sectoral analyses— these consist of workshops andassessments carried out to characterize the potentialconsequences of climate variability and change forbroad sectors that encompass environmental, economic,and societal concerns. The sectoral reports analyze howthe consequences in each region affect the nation,making the reports widely interesting and national inscope. The sectors studied in the first phase of theongoing National Assessment include agriculture,forests, human health, water, and coastal areas andmarine resources. Publications and assessment reportsbecame available starting in late 1999.

• The National Overview— which consists of a summaryand integration of findings from the regional andsectoral studies, and conclusions about the importanceof climate variability and change for the United States.The National Assessment Synthesis Team was respon-sible for this report, which became available in thespring of 2000.

Each of the regional, sectoral, and synthesis activities wasled by a team of experts from the public and privatesectors, including university and government personneland a wide spectrum of stakeholders from our communi-ties. Their reports went through an extensive review processinvolving experts and other interested stakeholders. Theassessment process is supported cooperatively by USGCRPagencies including the Departments of Agriculture, Energy,Health and Human Services, Interior, and Commerce(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), aswell as the Environmental Protection Agency, the NationalAeronautics and Space Administration, and the NationalScience Foundation. Through this collaboration, the

USGCRP hopes to cultivate broad understanding ofclimate-related issues and their importance for the nation,and a full range of perspectives about how best to respond.

Extensive information about the Assessment, aboutmembers of assessment teams, and about links to activitiesin various regions and sectors, is available over the Web athttp://www.nacc.usgcrp.gov, or by inquiry to the GlobalChange Research Information Office / P.O. Box 1000 / 61Route 9W / Palisades, New York 10964.

Prepared by Michael MacCrackenNational Assessment Coordination OfficeRevised October 5, 1999

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APPENDIX B— MEMBERS OF THE PACIFIC ASSESSMENTCORE SCIENTIFIC TEAM

Principal Investigator:Eileen L. SheaClimate Project CoordinatorEast-West Center

Project Co-Investigators:Michael P. HamnettDirector, Social Science Research InstituteUniversity of Hawai‘i

Glenn DolcemascoloResearch AssociateEast-West Center

Cheryl L. AndersonPlanner and Policy AnalystSocial Science Research InstituteUniversity of Hawai‘i

Key Scientific Contributors:Anthony BarnstonHead, Forecast OperationsInternational Research Institute for Climate PredictionColumbia University

Gerald MeehlClimate and Global Dynamics DivisionNational Center for Environmental Research

Nancy LewisActing Dean, College of Social SciencesUniversity of Hawai‘i

Charles (Chip) GuardWater and Environmental Research InstituteUniversity of Guam

Johannes LoschniggPost-doctoral FellowInternational Pacific Research CenterUniversity of Hawai‘i

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1 Mr. Mark resigned from the Steering Committee upon leaving Outrigger in the summer of 2000.2 In Mr. Karnella’s absence, the Pacific Islands Area Office was represented by Mr. Kelvin Char.

APPENDIX C— MEMBERS OF THE PACIFIC ASSESSMENTSTEERING COMMITTEE

Mr. Clement CapelleChief, National Disaster Management OfficeRepublic of the Marshall Islands

Professor Thomas GiambellucaDepartment of GeographyUniversity of Hawai‘i

Dr. Sitiveni HalapuaDirector, Pacific Islands Development ProgramEast-West Center

Dr. John HayInternational Global Change InstituteUniversity of Waikato, New Zealand.

Mr. Clyde Mark1

Outrigger Hotels and ResortsHonolulu, Hawai‘i

Dr. Gerald MeehlClimate & Global Dynamics DivisionNational Center for Atmospheric Research

Mr. Gerald Miles, HeadEnvironmental Management and Planning DivisionSouth Pacific Regional Environment Programme

Mr. John MootebClimate CoordinatorGovernment of the Federated States of Micronesia

Dr. Wali OsmanVice President & Regional EconomistBank of Hawai‘iHonolulu, Hawai‘i

Mr. Lelei PeauEconomic Development & Planning OfficeGovernment of American Samoa

Mr. Techur Rengulbai, ChiefBureau of Public UtilitiesMinistry of Resources and DevelopmentRepublic of Palau

Dr. Robert RichmondProfessor of Marine BiologyUniversity of Guam Marine Laboratory

Ms. Kitty Simonds, Executive DirectorWestern Pacific Regional Fishery Management CouncilHonolulu, Hawai‘i

Dr. Thomas Schroeder, DirectorJoint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric ResearchUniversity of Hawai‘i

Federal Liaisons to the Steering Committee

Richard HagemeyerNational Weather Service-Pacific RegionNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Mr. Charles Karnella2

Pacific Islands Area OfficeNational Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Mr. David KennardRegion IX, Pacific Area OfficeFederal Emergency Management Agency

Dr. David KirtlandU.S. Geological SurveyU.S. Department of the Interior

Mr. Joe LeesPacific Disaster CenterMaui, Hawai‘i

Dr. James MaragosPacific Islands EcoregionU.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceU.S. Department of the Interior

Dr. Roger PulwartyOffice of Global ProgramsNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Dr. Thomas SpenceGeosciences DirectorateNational Science Foundation

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APPENDIX D— WORKSHOP ON CLIMATE AND ISLAND COASTALCOMMUNITIES— NOVEMBER 2000

Workshop SummaryNovember 6-8, 2000East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawai‘i

In November 2000, the East-West Center hosted anexciting, three-day Workshop on Climate and IslandCoastal Communities that provided a unique forum forbusiness leaders, scientists, government representatives,public interest groups and community leaders to jointlyexplore opportunities to address the significant challengesthat climate variability and change present to Hawai‘i andother island jurisdictions throughout the Pacific and theCaribbean. The Workshop was organized as part of aPacific Islands Regional Assessment project funded by theNational Science Foundation (NSF), on behalf of NSF, theNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, theNational Aeronautics and Space Administration and theU.S. Department of the Interior. The results of this projectwill provide a Pacific regional contribution to the first U.S.National Assessment of the Consequences of ClimateVariability and Change; the National Assessment wasorganized under the auspices of the U.S. Global ChangeResearch Program and the White House Office of Scienceand Technology Policy.

The November 2000 Workshop was designed to achievetwo mutually-supportive objectives:

• To develop a more complete understanding of theregional consequences of climate variability and changefor Pacific Island jurisdictions in the context of othereconomic, social and environmental stresses; and

• To initiate and sustain a dialogue among scientists,governments, businesses and communities in the Pacificregion that promotes use of climate information tosupport practical decision-making.

As EWC President Charles Morrison noted in his letter ofwelcome to Workshop participants, “climate variability andchange, like so many critical issues facing the Asia-PacificRegion, require creative approaches that bring govern-ments, businesses, communities and scientists together ininnovative, new partnerships.” The theme of sustainingcritical partnerships was reflected throughout the Work-shop and provided the focus for an inspirational closingkeynote address by Puanani Burgess.

Rather than the traditional approach of identifying andquantifying impacts, the Workshop was organized around

the concept of climate vulnerability. This conceptualframework enabled participants to explore not only issuesof climate sensitivity and exposure but also the ability ofcommunities, ecosystems, and businesses to respond(adapt) to climate impacts. Reflecting this focus onidentifying and promoting appropriate action, most of theWorkshop deliberations took place in highly-interactiveworking-group discussions of the implications of climatevariability and change for key aspects of island life; theseinclude:

• providing access to fresh water;

• protecting public health;

• ensuring public safety and protecting communityinfrastructure;

• sustaining tourism and agriculture as key economicsectors; and,

• promoting wise use of coastal and marine resources.

In each of these areas, Workshop participants providedvaluable insights into how Pacific Island jurisdictions canreduce climate sensitivity and exposure and enhance theiradaptive capacity — build resilience - to the significantchallenges presented by climate variability and change.Detailed findings and recommendations in each of thesecritical areas are being incorporated into the Pacific IslandsRegional Assessment report scheduled to be completed inspring 2001.

EWC Climate Project Coordinator Eileen Shea hassummarized a number of important general findings thatemerged from the Workshop. First is the strong endorse-ment of a commitment to continuing a Pacific Islandsclimate dialogue that engages experts from all knowledgegroups— each bringing its own unique insights andexperience to the table in a joint effort to understand andrespond to a shared challenge. Establishing and sustainingthese critical partnerships in research, dialogue andeducation emerged throughout the Workshop as thefundamental key to effectively responding to the challengesof climate variability and change. Embedded within thiscommitment should be the meaningful integration oftraditional knowledge and practices into the paradigm ofwestern science and technology. Kumu Hula JohnKa‘imikaua set the stage for this important concept in hiskeynote presentation of story, chant and dance, whichprovided exciting examples of the insights that can bedrawn from traditional knowledge of weather and climate

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in the Native Hawaiian community. Other key findingsincluded recommendations related to:

• Enhancing efforts to interpret and communicateclimate information;

• Pursuing proactive (rather than reactive) policy optionswith a sustained commitment to adaptation andintegration of climate information into planning,decision-making and policies at all levels of government;

• Using climate information to address today’s problemstoday— e.g., responding to the dramatic year-to-yearclimate fluctuations like the 1997–1998 El Niño;

• Recognizing the special characteristics of islandcommunities, including their unique natural andcultural assets, the limitations imposed by theirgeographic size and isolation, and their dependence oncritical natural resources (e.g., coral reefs) and climate-sensitive economic sectors (e.g., agriculture andtourism);

• Addressing the consequences of extreme events (e.g.,changes in patterns of droughts and tropical storms) aswell as long-term trends (e.g., rising sea level); and,

• Filling critical information gaps, including the develop-ment of regional and local-scale information on climateprocesses and consequences.

The November 2000 Workshop on Climate and IslandCoastal Communities reflected an emerging paradigm ofclimate (and other environmental) assessments as asustained process that combines scientific exploration withan effective science<>policy dialogue. This paradigmsuggests that, in a practical sense, a commitment to aclimate assessment mission means a commitment tosupporting the emergence of a climate information systemdesigned to meet the needs of decision-makers. As EWCPresident Charles Morrison noted in his letter of welcome,“The Workshop’s approach of combining research,dialogue and education mirrors the mission of the East-West Center itself, supporting the emergence of such newpartnerships in progress toward an Asia-Pacific communitycommitted to shared learning and joint problem-solving.”

Contact: Eileen L. SheaClimate Project CoordinatorEast-West CenterPhone: (808) 944-7253e-mail: sheae@ewc.hawaii.edu

Workshop AgendaWorkshop on Climate and Island Coastal CommunitiesNovember 6-8, 2000

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 6 (PLENARY)

8:00 a.m. Workshop RegistrationContinental Breakfast

9:00 a.m. Opening PlenaryOli AlohaWelcomeOpening Remarks

Opening Keynote:Huli Ka Lani Kanu Pono Ka Honua“When the Heavens Change, the Earthis Planted Acccordingly”Kumu John Ka’imikaua andHalau Kukunaokala

10:30 a.m. Break

11:00 a.m. Overview of Workshop Objectives andOrganizationEileen L. Shea – East West Center

11:15 a.m. The Concept of VulnerabilityRicardo Alvarez – InternationalHurricane Center

12:15 p.m. Lunch (Imin Center Garden Level)Video Presentation:A Mau A Mau: To Continue Forever

1:30 p.m. The Honorable Neil Abercrombie:U.S. House of Representatives

1:45 p.m. Discussion of Working Group Structureand GoalsMike Hamnett— Social Science ResearchInstituteEileen SheaRicardo Alvarez

• Anticipated Goals and Products -Why are we here?

• Introduction of Working Group Topics/Key Issues

• Access to Fresh Water

• Protecting Public Health

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• Ensuring Public Safety in Extreme Events andProtecting the Built Environment/CommunityInfrastructure

• Sustaining Tourism and Agriculture

• Promoting Wise Use of Coastal and MarineResource

Overview of Key Working Group Questions

• What systems, activities, communities (and popula-tions) are particularly sensitive to climate and how?

• How might we respond to enhance the adaptivecapacity of these systems, activities communities (andpopulations)?

• What information/research is needed to reducesensitivity or enhance adaptive capacity (build resil-ience)?

• How can information about climate be used to enhanceplanning, policy formulation and decision-making?

• What cooperative partnerships could be pursued toenhance adaptive capacity?

2:45 p.m. Break

3:15 p.m. Overview of Climate Change Scenariosfor Workshop DeliberationsTony Barnston:International Research Institute forClimate Prediction

4:00–5:30 p.m. Convene in Working Groups(Introductions, summary of key issues,work plan)

6:15–8:30 p.m. Opening Reception (Waikiki Aquarium)

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7 (WORKING GROUPS)

8:00 a.m. Continental Breakfast

9:00 a.m. Working Groups Reconvene

12:00 (noon) Convene in Plenary for Quick Updatesand Identification of Issues/Problems(Boxed Lunches Provided)

1:30 p.m. Working Groups Reconvene

5:30 p.m. Working Groups Adjourn

5:30-6:30 p.m. OPTIONAL—Working Group Chairs,Rapporteurs and Workshop Chairs meetbriefly]

7:00 p.m. Workshop Banquet (Hawaiian RegentHotel)

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 8 (PLENARY)

8:30–10 a.m. Continental Breakfast Available

Working Group Chairs and Rapporteurscomplete reports individually

10:30 a.m. Workshop Convenes in PlenarySummary of Working Group Findings& Recommendations (approx. 15minute presentations followed by 15minutes general discussion; completethree before lunch)

12:00 noon Lunch Presentation:Islands Hanging in the Balance:Testimonials from Yap(Eric Metzgar, Triton Films)

1:30 p.m. Complete Working Group Reports

3:00 p.m. Afternoon Tea

3:30 p.m. Summary Remarks and PlenaryDiscussionRicardo AlvarezMike HamnettEileen L. Shea

4:30 p.m. Closing Keynote: Sustaining CriticalPartnershipsPuanani Burgess

5:15 p.m. Closing Ceremonies

5:30–7:30 p.m. Closing Reception (Imin Garden Level)

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Workshop Steering CommitteeWorkshop on Climate and Island Coastal Communities

Cheryl L. AndersonSocial Science Research InstituteUniversity of Hawai‘i

Ricardo AlvarezInternational Hurricane CenterFlorida International University

Kelvin CharPacific Islands Area OfficeNational Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA)

Lynette Hi‘ilani CruzAhupua‘a Action AllianceHonolulu, Hawai‘i

Glenn DolcemascoloResearch AssociateEast-West Center

Michael P. HamnettSocial Science Research InstituteUniversity of Hawai‘i

Stephen T. KubotaAhupua‘a Action AllianceKane‘ohe, Hawai‘i

Nancy LewisCollege of Social SciencesUniversity of Hawai‘i

Lelei PeauEconomic Development and Planning OfficeAmerican Samoa Government

Robert RichmondMarine LaboratoryUniversity of Guam

Eileen L. SheaEast-West Center

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Working Group Chairs and Rapporteurs3

Workshop on Climate and Island Coastal Communities

Sustaining TourismWorking Group Co-ChairsJill LankfordSchool of Tourism Industry ManagementUniversity of Hawai‘i

Alan Parker, DirectorCenter for Tourism and TechnologyFlorida International University

RapporteurGlenn DolcemascoloResearch AssociateEast-West Center

Sustaining AgricultureWorking Group Co-ChairsMichael HamnettSocial Science Research InstituteUniversity of Hawai‘i

Eric EnosKa‘ala FarmsHawai‘i

RapporteurMichael HamnettSocial Science Research InstituteUniversity of Hawai‘i

Promoting Wise Use of Coastal and Marine ResourcesWorking Group Co-ChairsRobert RichmondMarine LaboratoryUniversity of Guam

Andy TafileichigYap Marine Resources ManagementFederated States of Micronesia

RapporteurLynne CarterNational Assessment Coordination Office

Providing Access to FreshwaterWorking Group Co-ChairsTechur RengulbaiBureau of Public UtilitiesRepublic of Palau

Tom GiambellucaGeography DepartmentUniversity of Hawai‘i

Robert HadleyGovernment Water EngineerFederated States of Micronesia

RapporteurCheryl AndersonSocial Science Research InstituteUniversity of Hawai‘i

Protecting Public HealthWorking Group ChairNancy Lewis, Acting DeanSchool of Social SciencesUniversity of Hawai‘i

RapporteurJuli TrtanjOffice of Global ProgramsNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Ensuring Public Safety and Protecting CommunityInfrastructureWorking Group Co-ChairsPaul KenchInternational Global Change InstituteUniversity of Waikato, New Zealand

Lelei PeauEconomic Development and Planning OfficeGovernment of American Samoa

RapporteursPene LefaleSouth Pacific Regional Environment Programme

Chip GuardWater and Environment Research InstituteUniversity of Guam

3 These individuals were responsible for leading discussions of vulnerability in each of the six key activity areas addressed during the NovemberWorkshop; the reports of their deliberations provided a foundation for the final Pacific Islands Regional Assessment Report.

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ParticipantsWorkshop on Climate and Island Coastal Communities

Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822Tel: 808-956-3908Fax: 808-956-2889Email: canderso@hawaii.educlanderson@hawaii.rr.com

David AranugMeteorologist-in-ChargeNational Weather Service Office, YapPO Box 10Yap, Micronesia 96943-0010Tel: 691-350-2194Fax: 691-350-2446Email: daranug@mail.fm

Bernard M. AtenOfficial-in-ChargeNational Weather Service Office, FSMPO Box AChuuk State, Micronesia 96942-2548Tel: 691-330-2548Fax: 691-330-4494Email: chuukwso@mail.fm

James BannanPacific Resources for Education and Learning1099 Alakea Street, 25th FloorHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96813Tel: 808-441-1300Fax: 808-441-1385Email: bannanj@prel.org

Anthony BarnstonHead, Forecast OperationsInternational Research Institute for ClimatePredictionColumbia University227 Monell, 61 Route 9WPalisades, New York, USA 10964-8000Tel: 914-680-4447Fax: 914-680-4865Email: tonyb@iri.ldgo.columbia.edu

Peter BlackProfessor of AnthropologyDept of Sociology and AnthropologyGeorge Mason UniversityMS 3G5Fairfax, Virginia, USA 22030Tel: 703-993-1334Fax: 703-993-1446Email: pblack@gmu.edu

Joseph F. BlancoExecutive AssistantSpecial Advisor, Technical DevelopmentOffice of the GovernorState of Hawai‘iState Capitol, 5th FloorHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96813Tel: 808-586-0022Fax: 808-586-0006Email: blanco@aloha.net

Joe BlasBoard MemberGuam Restaurant and Hotel Association

Neil AbercrombieCongressman300 Ala Moana Blvd, Room 4104Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96850Tel: 808-541-2570Fax: 808-533-0133Email: neil.abercrombie@mail.house.gov

Simpson AbrahamProgram DirectorKosrae Island Resource Management ProgramPO Box DRCKosrae, Micronesia 96944Tel: 691-370-2076Fax: 691-370-2867Email: simpson@fm.mail

Shardul AgrawalaAssociate Research ScientistApplications Research DivisionInternational Research Institute for ClimatePrediction (IRI)Lamont Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia University118 Monell, 61 Route 9WPalisades, New York, USA 10964-8000Tel: 845-680-4460Fax: 845-680-4864Email: shardul@iri.ldeo.columbia.edu

Rothwell (Rock) AhulauDirectorAmerican Red Cross Disaster Services4155 Diamond Head RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96816-4417Tel: 808-739-8134Fax: 808-735-9738Email: ahulaur@crossnet.org

Apelu AitaotoCommunity Liaison OfficerAmerican Samoa Coastal Zone ManagementProgramDepartment of CommerceAmerican Samoa GovernmentPago Pago, American Samoa 96799Tel: 684-633 5155Fax: 684-633-4195

Ricardo A. AlvarezDeputy DirectorInternational Hurricane CenterFlorida International University10555 West Flagler StreetFIU CEAS Room #2710Miami, Florida, USA 33174Tel: 305-348-1865Fax: 305-348-1605Email: alvarez@fiu.edu

Cheryl L. AndersonPlanner and Policy AnalystSocial Science Research InstituteUniversity of Hawai‘i2424 Maile WaySocial Sciences Building 719

Hotel Nikko Guam245 Gun Beach, TumonTamuning, Guam 96931Tel: 671-649-8815Fax: 671-646-0031Email: gae@nikkoguam.com

Puanani BurgessPresidentPu’a Foundation86-649 Puuhulu RoadWaianae, Hawai‘i, USA 96792Tel: 808-696-5157Fax: 808-696-7774Email: puananiburgess@aol.com

Pat CaldwellKlaus Wyrtki Center for Climate PredictionDepartment of OceanographyUniversity of Hawai‘i1000 Pope RoadMarine Science BldgHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822Tel: 808-956-4105Fax: 808-956-2352Email: caldwell@soest.hawaii.edu

John CampbellChairpersonDepartment of GeographyUniversity of WaikatoPrivate Bag 3105Hamilton, New ZealandTel: 647-838-4046Fax: 647-838-4633Email: jrc@waikato.ac.nz

Clement CapelleChief Disaster Manager/AdministratorNational Disaster Management OfficeOffice of the Chief SecretaryPO Box 15Majuro, Marshall Islands 96960Tel: 692-625-5181Fax: 692-625-6896Email: ccapelle@majuro.peacesat.hawaii.edu

Lynne CarterNational Assessment Coordination OfficeUSGCRPPO Box 121Slocum, Rhode Island, USA 02877Tel: 401-268-3820Fax: 401-268-3820Email: LCARTER231@aol.comlcarter@usgcrp.gov

Kelvin CharPolicy AnalystPacific Islands Area OfficeNational Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA1601 Kapiolani Blvd, Suite 1110Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96814Tel: 808-973-2937Fax: 808-973-2941Email: kelvin.char@noaa.gov

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Pao-Shin ChuProfessorDepartment of MeteorologyUniversity of Hawai‘i2525 Correa RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822-2291Tel: 808-956-2567Fax: 808-956-2877Email: chu@soest.hawaii.edu

Christopher ChungOffice of PlanningPO Box 2359Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96804Tel: 808-587-2820Fax: 808-587-2899Email: cchung@dbedt.hawaii.gov

Delores ClarkPublic Affairs Officer, Pacific RegionUS National Weather Service, NOAA737 Bishop Street, Suite 2200Grosvenor Center, Mauka CenterHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96813-3214Tel: 808-532-6411Fax: 808-532-5569Email: delores.clark@noaa.gov

Glasstine CorneliusAdministratorCrop Production and Research DivisionDept of Agriculture, Land and FisheriesKosrae, Micronesia 96944Tel: 691-370-3017Fax: 691-370-3952Email: dalu@mail.fm

Richard H. CoxFormer CommissionerCommission on Water Resource Management1951 Kakela DriveHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822Tel: 808-949-0853

Lynette Hi’ilani CruzCoordinatorAhupua‘a Action Alliance2505-C La‘i RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96816Tel: 808-738-0084Fax: 808-738-1094Email: palolo@hawaii.rr.com

Paul DalzellPelagics CoordinatorWestern Pacific Regional Fishery ManagementCouncil1164 Bishop Street, Suite 1400Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96813Tel: 808-522-8220Fax: 808-522-8226Email: paul.dalzell@noaa.gov

Gerald W. DavisActing ChiefDepartment of AgricultureDivision of Aquatic and Wildlife Resources192 Dairy RoadMangilao, Guam 96923Tel: 671-735-3979Fax: 671-734-6570Email: gdavis@mail.gov.gu

Glenn DolcemascoloResearch Associate, Climate ProjectEast-West Center1601 East-West RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96848-1601Tel: 808-944-7250Fax: 808-944-7298Email: dolcemag@EastWestCenter.org

Deanna DonovanFellowResearch ProgramEast-West Center1601 East-West RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96848-1601Tel: 808-944-7246Fax: 808-944-7490Email: donovand@EastWestCenter.org

Ahser EdwardSea Grant Extension AgentCollege of Micronesia, FSMPO Box 159Kolonia, Pohnpei, Micronesia 96941Tel: 691-320-2480Fax: 691-320-2479Email: aedward@mail.fm

Tom EisenMarine Program SpecialistOcean Resources BranchHawai‘i DBEDTPO Box 2359Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96804Tel: 808-587-2663Fax: 808-587-2777Email: teisen@dbedt.hawaii.gov

Johnson S. ElimoMeteorologistNational Weather Service Office, ChuukPO Box AChuuk, Micronesia 96942-2548Tel: 691-330-2548Fax: 691-330-4494Email: elimo.johnson@noaa.gov

Eric EnosDirectorKaala Learning CenterPO Box 630Waianae, Hawai‘i, USA 96792Tel: 808-696-7241Fax: 808-696-7411Email: holopono@pixi.com

Sumner ErdmanUlapalakua RanchPO Box 901Uluapalakua, Maui, USA 96790Tel: 808-878-1202Email: spe@maui.net

Katherine C. EwelResearch EcologistInstitute of Pacific Islands ForestryUSDA Forest Service1151 Punchbowl Street, Rm 353Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96813Tel: 808-522-8230 x109Fax: 808-522-8236Email: kewel@gte.net

Jefferson FoxSenior FellowResearch ProgramEast-West Center1601 East-West RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96848-1601Tel: 808-944-7248Fax: 808-944-7490Email: foxj@EastWestCenter.org

Thomas GiambellucaProfessorDepartment of GeographyUniversity of Hawai‘i2424 Maile Way, Social Sciences BuildingHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822Tel: 808-956-7683Fax: 808-956-3512Email: thomas@hawaii.edu

Gary GillDeputy Director for Environmental HealthEnvironmental Health AdministrationDepartment of Health1250 Punchbowl Street, Room 325Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96813Tel: 808-586-4424Fax: 808-586-4368Email: glgill@mail.health.state.hi.us

Stanley GoldenbergResearch MeteorologistHurricane Research DivisionAOML/NOAA4301 Rickenbacker CausewayMiami, Florida, USA 33149-1026Tel: 305-361-4362Fax: 305-361-4402Email: Stanley.Goldenberg@noaa.gov

Kevin GoodingHydrologist-GeologistBoard of Water SupplyCity and County of Honolulu630 S. Beretania StreetHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96843Tel: 808-527-5285Fax: 808-527-5703Email: mokulua@hbws.org

Gail Grabowsky KaaialiiEnvironmental Studies Program AdvisorChaminade University3140 Waialae AvenueHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96816Tel: 808-735-4807Email: gkaaiali@chaminade.edu

Charles (Chip) GuardWater and Environmental Research InstituteUniversity of GuamPacific ENSO Applications Center303 University DriveUOG StationMangilao, Guam 96926Tel: 671-735-2695Fax: 671-734-8890Email: chipguar@uog.edu

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Gregorio A. Deleon GuerreroDirectorEmergency Management OfficeOffice of the GovernorPO Box 10007Saipan, Mariana Islands 96950Tel: 670-322-8001Fax: 670-322-7743Email: emodir@itecnmi.com

John GutrichVisiting FellowResearch ProgramEast-West Center1601 East-West RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96848-1601Tel: 808-944-7249Fax: 808-944-7490Email: gutrichj@EastWestCenter.org

Ceasar L. HadleyStaff MeteorologistWeather Service Office, PohnpeiPO Box 69Kolonia, Pohnpei, Micronesia 96941-0069Tel: 691-320-2248Fax: 691-320-5787Email: ceasar.hadley@noaa.gov

Robert HadleyAssistant Secretary for InfrastructureGovernment of the Federated States of MicronesiaPO Box PS2Palikir, Pohnpei, Micronesia 96941Tel: 691-320-2865Fax: 691-320-5833Email: transfsm@mail.fm

Richard H. HagemeyerDirector, Pacific RegionU.S. National Weather Service, NOAA737 Bishop Street, Suite 2200Grosvenor Center, Mauka TowerHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96813-3214Tel: 808-532-6416Fax: 808-532-5569Email: richard.hagemeyer@noaa.gov

Michael Logan HamProgram AdministratorMicronesia Conservation SocietyPO Box 4016Hagatna, Guam 96932Tel: 671-472-2569Fax: 671-646-6633Email: mham@ite.net

Michael P. HamnettDirectorSocial Science Research InstituteUniversity of Hawai‘i2424 Maile WaySocial Sciences Building 704Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822Tel: 808-956-7469Fax: 808-956-2884Email: hamnett@hawaii.edu

John HawkinsProfessorGraduate School of EducationUniversity of California, Los AngelesLos Angeles, California, USA 90024Tel: 310-825-8312

Elden HellanExecutive OfficerPohnpei Environmental Protection AgencyPohnpei State GovernmentKolonia, Pohnpei, Micronesia 96941Tel: 691-320-2927Fax: 691-320-5265Email: pniepa@mail.fm

Francis ItimaiHead, Fisheries SectionDivision of Sector DevelopmentDepartment of Economic AffairsPO Box PS -12Palikir, Pohnpei, Micronesia 96941Tel: 691-320-2620Fax: 691-320-5854Email: fsmrd@mail.fm

Ehson D. JohnsonFSM Disaster Management OfficeOffice of the PresidentPO Box PS-53Palikir, Pohnpei, Micronesia 96941Tel: 691-320-8815Fax: 691-320-8936Email: ehsonj@mail.fm

John Ka’imikauaKumu Hula92-622 Newa StreetMakakilo, Hawai‘i, USA 96707Email: johnkaimikaua@hawaii.rr.com

Keith T. KanekoEast West Center94-1009 Haalau StreetWaipahu, Hawai‘i, USA 96797Tel: 808-677-1143Email: keithpapio@hotmail.com

Annette KaohelauliiEcotourism ConsultantAnnette’s Adventures45-403 Koa Kahiko StreetKaneohe, Hawai‘i, USA 96744Tel: 808-235-5431Fax: 808-247-4113Email: annettesadventures@juno.com

Stephen G. KarelExecutive DirectorPacific Island Health Officers Association1451 S. King Street, Suite 211Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96814Tel: 808-945-1555/1557Fax: 808-945-1558Email: skarel@hawaii.edupihoa@hawaii.edu

Charles KarnellaNational Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA1601 Kapiolani Blvd, Suite 1110Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96814Tel: 808-973-2937Fax: 808-973-2941Email: charles.karnella@noaa.gov

Paul KenchSenior Research FellowInternational Global Change InstituteUniversity of WaikatoPrivate Bag 3105Hamilton, New ZealandTel: 647-858-5026Fax: 647-838-4289Email: p.kench@waikato.ac.nz

Shahram KhosrowpanahProfessor of Civil EngineeringWater Environment Research InstituteUniversity of GuamUOG StationMangilao, Guam 96923Tel: 671-735-2691Fax: 671-734-8890Email: khosrow@uog.edu

Maheta KilafwasruMayor— Malem Municipal GovernmentResource Management Advisory CouncilMalem, Kosrae, Micronesia 96944Tel: 691-370-4501Fax: 691-370-3162

Ann KitalongSpecial Assistant to the Vice PresidentPO Box 6010Koror, Palau 96940Tel: 680-488-2702Fax: 680-488-1310Email: vprop@palaunet.com

Hirao KloulchadOfficial-in-ChargeNational Weather Service Office, KororPO Box 520Koror, Palau 96940-0520Tel: 680-488-1034Fax: 680-488-1436Email: wso.koror@palaunet.com

Cindy KnapmanProtected Species CoordinatorWestern Pacific Regional Fishery ManagementCouncil1164 Bishop Street, Suite 1400Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96813Tel: 808-522-8220Fax: 808-522-8226Email: lucinda.knapman@noaa.gov

Gi-Won KohWater Resources Development of Cheju Provincec/o Board of Water SupplyCity and County of Honolulu630 S. Beretania StreetHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96843Tel: 808-527-5286Fax: 808-527-6195Email: chlao@hawaii.rr.comkkr1066c@provin.cheju.kr

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Joseph KonnoExecutive DirectorEnvironmental Protection AgencyChuuk State GovernmentPO Box 189Weno, Chuuk State, Micronesia 96942Tel: 691-330-4158Fax: 691-330-2613Email: cpiccap@mail.fm

Stephen KubotaProgram DirectorAhupua‘a Action Alliance44-281 Mikiola DriveKane‘ohe, Hawai‘i, USA 96744Tel: 808-235 1279Fax: 808-235-1279Email: stephen@hawaii.rr.com

Atran LakabungOfficial-in-ChargeWeather Service Office, MajuroPO Box 78Majuro, Marshall Islands 96960-0078Tel: 692-625-3214/5705Fax: 692-625-3078/5106Email: wxmajuro@ntamar.com

Jill LankfordSchool of TIM/STEPUniversity of Hawai‘i112A George HallHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822Tel: 808-956-8025Email: jlankfor@uhmtravel.tim.hawaii.edu

Sam LankfordAssociate ProfessorSchool of TIM/STEPUniversity of Hawai‘i112A George HallHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822Tel: 808-956-80253804Fax: 808-956-7976Email: saml@hawaii.edu

Chester LaoBoard of Water SupplyCity and County of Honolulu630 S. Beretania StreetHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96843Tel: 808-527-5286Fax: 808-527-5703Email: chester@hbws.org

Joseph E. LeesDirectorPacific Disaster Center590 Lipoa Parkway #259Kihei, Hawai‘i, USA 96753Tel: 808-891-0525 x17Fax: 808-891-0526Email: jelees@pdc.org

Penehuro LefaleClimatology/Meteorology OfficerSouth Pacific Regional Environmental ProgramPO Box 240Apia, SamoaTel: 685-21929Fax: 685-20231Email: pene@sprep.org.ws

Sam LemmoPlannerDept of Land and Natural ResourcesPO Box 521Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96809Tel: 808-587-0381Fax: 808-587-0455

Nancy D. LewisActing DeanCollege of Social SciencesUniversity of Hawai‘i1601 East-West RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96848Tel: 808-956-6070Fax: 808-956-2340Email: nlewis@hawaii.edu

Lloyd LoopeResearch ScientistU.S. Geological SurveyBiological Resources Divisionc/o Haleakala National ParkPO Box 369Makawao, Hawai‘i, USA 96768Tel: 808-572-4470Fax: 808-572-1304Email: lloyd_loope@usgs.gov

Johannes LoschniggPost-doctoral FellowUORC, 2525 Correa RoadUniversity of Hawai‘iHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822Tel: 808-956-7595Fax: 808-956-9425Email: johannes@soest.hawaii.edu

G. Kem LowryDept of Urban and Regional PlanningUniversity of Hawai‘iSocial Science Bldg 107FHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822Tel: 808-956-6868/944-7793Fax: 808-956-6870Email: lowry@hawaii.edu

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Paul MatsuoAdministrator and Chief EngineerAgricultural Resource Management DivisionDepartment of AgriculturePO Box 22159Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96823-2159Tel: 808-973-9473Fax: 808-973-9467Email: hdoa_arm@hawaiiag.org

Mark MerrifieldKlaus Wyrtki Center for Climate PredictionDepartment of OceanographyUniversity of Hawai‘i1000 Pope RoadMarine Science BldgHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822Tel: 808-956-6161Email: marmm@soest.hawaii.edu

Eric MetzgarDirectorTriton Films5177 Mesquite StreetCamarillo, CA, USA 93012-6724Tel: 805-484-2199Fax: 805-484-2199Email: TritonFilms@vcnet.com

John F. MillerMeteorologist-in-ChargeWeather Forecast Office, Guam3232 Hue Neme RoadBarrigada, Guam 96913Tel: 671-472-0944Fax: 671-472-0980Email: john.f.miller@noaa.gov

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Patty MillerTeleschool TeacherHawai‘i Department of Education1122 Mapunapuna Street, Suite 201Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96819Tel: 808-837-8004Fax: 808-837-8010Email: pmiller@k12.hi.us

Vinod MishraFellowResearch ProgramEast West Center1601 East West RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96848-1601Tel: 808-944-7452Fax: 808-944-7490Email: mishra@hawaii.edu

John E. MootebPICCAP CoordinatorDepartment of Economic AffairsFSM National GovernmentPO Box PS-12Palikir, Pohnpei, Micronesia 96941Tel: 691-320-2646Fax: 691-320-5854Email: climate@mail.fmjemooteb@hotmail.com

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Frederick MullerSecretary of Resources and DevelopmentMinistry of Resources and DevelopmentPO Box 1727Majuro, Marshall Islands 96960Tel: 692-625-3206Fax: 692-625-3821Email: agridiv@ntamar.com

Karen K. MuranakaCommunity Affairs and Customer RelationsThe Queen’s Medical Center1301 Punchbowl StreetHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96813Tel: 808-547-4988Fax: 808-537-7804Email: kmuranaka@queens.org

Elsie NagamineOutrigger Hotels and Resorts2375 Kuhio StreetHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96815-2992Tel: 808-921-6571Fax: 808-921-6505

Barry NakasonePacific Resources for Education and Learning1099 Alakea Street, 25th FloorHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96813Tel: 808-441-1300Fax: 808-441-1385Email: nakasonb@prel.org

Arthy NenaHospital Administrator Dept of Health ServicesKosrae State GovernmentKosrae, Micronesia 96944Tel: 691-370-3199Fax: 691-370-3073Email: agnena@mail.fm

Maria NgemaesMeteorologistNational Weather Service Office, KororPO Box 520Koror, Palau 96940-0520Tel: 680-488-1034Fax: 680-488-1436Email: maria.ngemaes@noaa.gov

Mark S. PangelinanResponse/Recovery CoordinatorCommonwealth of the Northern Mariana IslandsEmergency Management OfficeCaller Box 10007 C.K.Saipan, Mariana Islands 96950Tel: 670-322-8001/3Fax: 670-322-7743/9500

Alan ParkerDirectorCenter for Tourism and TechnologySchool of Hospitality ManagementFlorida International University2912College Avenue, Suite 226Davie, Florida, USA 33314Tel: 954-236-1516Fax: 954-236-1597Email: parkeraj@fiu.edu

Kevin ParnellSenior LecturerDept of GeographyUniversity of AucklandPB 92019Auckland, New ZealandTel: 649-373-7999Fax: 649-373-7434Email: k.parnell@auckland.ac.nz

Eric E. PaulCoordinating Disaster OfficerDisaster Coordinating OfficePO Box 189Weno, Chuuk, Micronesia 96942Tel: 691-330-4324Fax: 691-330-3810Email: dcoffice@mail.fm

Lelei PeauEconomic Development and Planning OfficeDepartment of CommerceAmerican Samoa GovernmentPago Pago, American Samoa 96799Tel: 684-633-5155Fax: 684-633-4195Email: lelei.peau@noaa.gov

Sam PooleyEconomistNMFS Honolulu Laboratory2570 Dole StreetHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822Tel: 808-983-5320Fax: 808-983-2902Email: samuel.pooley@noaa.gov

Biman C. PrasadSenior Lecturer in EconomicsThe University of the South PacificFiji CenterSuva, FijiTel: 679-382049Fax: 679-382059Email: chand_b@usp.ac.fj

Roy C. PricePast PresidentNational Emergency Management Association1994A 9th AvenueHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96816Tel: 808-737-1163Fax: 808-737-1163Email: pricer003@hawaii.rr.com

Peter RappaExtension AgentSea Grant Extension ServiceSea Grant ProgramUniversity of Hawai‘iHIG 2372525 Correa RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822Tel: 808-956-3974Fax: 808-956-3980Email: rappa@hawaii.edu

Samuel C. RawlinsEntomologistCaribbean Epidemiology CentrePan American Health Organization (CAREC/PAHO)16-18 Jamaica Boulevard, Federation ParkPO Box 164Port of Spain, Trinidad and TobagoTel: 868-622-2324Fax: 868-628-9084Email: rawlinsa@carec.paho.org

Techur RengulbaiChief, Water BranchBureau of Public UtilitiesMinister of Resources and DevelopmentPO Box 100Koror, Palau 96940Tel: 680-488-2438Fax: 680-488-3380Email: mrd@palaunet.com

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Robert RichmondProfessor of Marine BiologyUniversity of Guam Marine LabUOG StationMangilao, Guam 96923Tel: 671-735-2188Fax: 671-734-6767Email: richmond@uog9.uog.edu

Jean E. RollesAssistant Corporate SecretaryVice President, Community RelationsOutrigger Enterprises, Inc.2375 Kuhio AvenueHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96815-2992Email: jean.rolles@outrigger.com

Eileen SheaProject CoordinatorEast-West Center1601 East-West RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96848-1601Tel: 808-944-7253Fax: 808-944-7298Email: sheae@EastWestCenter.org

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Celia SmithAssociate ProfessorDepartment of BotanyUniversity of Hawai‘i3190 Maile WayHonolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822Tel: 808-956-6947Fax: 808-956-3923Email: celia@hawaii.edu

John SohlithChief of Planning for Yap StateOffice of Planning and BudgetGovernment of YapPO Box 471Colonia, Yap, Micronesia 96943Tel: 691-350-2166/2145Fax: 691-350-4430Email: johns@mail.fm

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Andy Tafileichig, DirectorYap Marine Resources Management DivisionPO Box 251Colonia, Yap, Micronesia 96943Tel: 691-350-2294Fax: 691-350-4494Email: mrmdyap@mail.fm

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Ramsay TaumVolunteer CoordinatorVolunteer Water Quality Monitoring ProgramKailua Bay Advisory Council (KBAC)45-270 William Henry Road, Room 201-4Kaneohe, Hawai‘i, USA 96744Tel: 808-234-0702Fax: 808-234-0645Email: kbac-vc@hawaii.rr.comrcrinc@hawaii.rr.com

Michael A. TaylorDepartment of PhysicsUniversity of the West IndiesMona, Kingston 5Jamaica, West IndiesTel: 876-927-2480Fax: 876-977-1595Email: mataylor@uwimona.edu.jm

Frank TeMarine Science Program CoordinatorCollege of Marshall IslandsPO Box 1258Majuro, Marshall Islands 96960Tel: 692-625-3394Fax: 692-625-7203Email: frankte@yahoo.com

Jeyan ThirugnanamPlannerOffice of Environmental Quality ControlState of Hawai‘i235 Beretania Street, Room 702Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96813Tel: 808-586-4185Fax: 808-586-4186Email: jthirug@health.state.hi.us

Daniel ThompsonBoard of DirectorsKosrae Island Resource Management ProgramPO Box DRCKosrae, Micronesia 96944Tel: 691-370-2076Fax: 691-370-2867Email: kirmp@mail.fm

Murray TowillPresidentHawai‘i Hotel Association2250 Kalakaua Avenue, Suite 404-4Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96815Tel: 808-923-0407Fax: 808-924-3843Email: hha@panworld.net

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Leslie WallingDeputy Project ManagerCaribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change Project (CPACC)Regional Project Implementation UnitLazaretto Complex, Black RockSt. Michael, Barbados, West IndiesTel: 246-417-4580/4582Fax: 246-417-0461Email: wallingcpacc@sunbeach.net

Likiak Westley

‘Aulani WilhelmPublic Information OfficerDept of Land and Natural Resources1151 Punchbowl Street, Room 130Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96813Tel: 808-587-0330Fax: 808-587-0390Email: dlnrpio@aloha.net

Sanphy WilliamAssistant to the GovernorHealth and EnvironmentChuuk State GovernmentDisaster Coordinating OfficePO Box 189Governor OfficeWeno, Chuuk, Micronesia 96942Tel: 691-330-2324Fax: 691-330-3810Email: dcoffice@mail.fm

Yasuo I. YamadaVice PresidentCooperative Research and Extension EducationCollege of Micronesia, FSMBox 159Kolonia, Pohnpei, Micronesia 96941Tel: 691-320-8181/2132Fax: 691-320-2972Email: VPCRE@comfsm.fm

Edward YoungChief, Technical Services DivisionNational Weather ServicePacific Region HeadquartersGrosvenor Center, Mauka Tower737 Bishop Street, Suite #2200Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96813-3213Tel: 808-532-6416Fax: 808-532-5569Email: edward.young@noaa.gov

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Workshop SummaryMarch 3–6, 1998East-West Center in Honolulu, Hawai‘i

This document provides a brief summary of the Workshopon the Consequences of Climate Variability and Changefor the Hawai‘i-Pacific Region: Challenges and Opportuni-ties. The Workshop was organized under the auspices ofthe White House Office of Science and Technology Policyand the U.S. Global Change Research Program as part ofthe initial phase of the first U.S. National Assessment ofthe Consequences of Climate Variability and Change.Additional details on the history, rationale, objectives andorganization of the Workshop can be found in the Work-shop Background Paper generated as a supplement to thissummary. Following is a brief summary of the Workshopdeliberations.

Objectives and OrganizationThe March 1998 Workshop was designed to providerepresentatives of business, government, public interestgroups and the scientific community with an opportunityto:

• Initiate a long-term, interactive dialogue on thesensitivity of communities, businesses and ecosystems toclimate change; and

• Explore opportunities for use of new scientific informa-tion to adapt to or mitigate the consequences of thosechanges.

During the opening plenary session on March 3, Work-shop participants were provided with a number of indi-vidual and panel presentations designed to address whatclimate variability and change means for the Pacific Regionfrom three points of view:

• A climate system perspective;

• A community planning and economic developmentperspective; and,

• A habitat and natural resource perspective.

On the second day of the Workshop, participants met insmall working groups to discuss climate-related vulnerabili-ties in six areas: fisheries; agriculture; community planning,infrastructure and economic development; water resources;biodiversity and endangered species; and public health andsafety. On the third day of the Workshop, working-group

participants reconvened to discuss response strategies anddevelop recommendations for future action. Key findingsand recommendations from each working group werepresented in plenary during the final day of the Workshop,after which the Chair closed the Workshop with a discussionof common themes and next steps.

Plenary PresentationsOpening ceremonies on Monday, March 3 included videopresentations from Vice President Al Gore and SenatorDaniel K. Inouye (D-HI) and written statements fromSenator Daniel K. Akaka (D-HI), Representative NeilAbercrombie (D-HI) and Representative Patsy T. Mink (D-HI). Their comments highlighted the vulnerability of thePacific Region to the consequences of climate variability andchange, took note of the important role that research aboutthe Region plays in understanding local, regional and globalclimate processes and impacts, and commended theWorkshop organizers, sponsors and participants for theircommitment and leadership.

During the opening plenary, the Honorable Maizie Hirono,Lieutenant Governor of the State of Hawai‘i, welcomedWorkshop participants and highlighted the importance ofestablishing an effective connection between the privatesector and scientists to help address issues related to climatevariability and change. The Lieutenant Governor noted thatclimate variability and change was a topic of great urgencyfor the Pacific and noted that there were “few scientificefforts of greater moment” than emerging regional assess-ment programs like the one the Workshop represented. TheLieutenant Governor highlighted some of the significantcontributions that scientists and institutions in Hawai‘i havemade to the understanding of climate variability andchange, including sustained observations of increasingconcentrations of CO

2 on Mauna Loa; leadership in

national and international scientific programs (e.g. theTropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program investigatingEl Niño; the Hawai‘i Ocean Time Series program designedto enhance understanding of the global carbon cycle; andthe continuing efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change). The Lieutenant Governor then delivereda formal Proclamation from Hawai‘i Governor BenjaminCayetano proclaiming the week of March 2–7, 1998 to be“Climate Awareness Week,” and encouraging the people ofHawai‘i and the Pacific Region to learn more about climatevariability and its impact on our lives.

APPENDIX E— WORKSHOP ON THE CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATEVARIABILITY AND CHANGE FOR HAWAI‘I AND THE PACIFIC:CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES— MARCH 1998

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Dr. John A. (Jack) Gibbons, Assistant to the President forScience and Technology (and Director of the White HouseOffice of Science and Technology Policy) presented theKeynote Address. Referring to global climate change as“perhaps the most pervasive and challenging long-termenvironmental issue that we face as we enter the 21stcentury,” Dr. Gibbons talked about the importance ofunderstanding local consequences for ecosystems andhuman communities— translating a global problem intowhat matters on regional and local scales where “most ofthe significant consequences will be witnessed.” Dr.Gibbons then provided Workshop participants with anoverview of climate that included:

• A historical perspective on “disruptions” in the climatesystem, including a look at evidence of large-scalechanges such as glacial/interglacial periods and shorter-term variations such as the El Niño Southern Oscilla-tion (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific;

• Documentation of the approximately 1.0°F tempera-ture increase observed over the past century and theconcomitant rise in global sea level of approximately 4–10 inches during the same period;

• Evidence of the role of human activities in enhancingthe global greenhouse effect by adding CO

2 and other

greenhouse gases to the atmosphere through theburning of fossil fuels and other industrial activities;

• The consequences of year-to-year variability in theclimate system, such as El Niño and the potentialbenefits of using emerging forecasting capabilities tosupport decision-making;

• Some of the potential consequences of climate changeassociated with increasing concentrations of greenhousegases in the atmosphere (based on model simulations),including accelerated sea-level rise; intensification of thewater cycle; and possible changes in the frequency and/or intensity of tropical storms and other extreme events;and,

• Some of the potential actions that he believes should betaken to address the challenges and opportunitiespresented by climate variability and change, includingan increase in scientific understanding of climate changeand its relationship to other stresses, particularly atregional scales; continued engagement in internationalpolicy discussions; and development and deployment ofclean technologies for cost-effective reductions ingreenhouse gas emissions, including identifyingopportunities for U.S. leadership.

In closing, Dr. Gibbons commended Workshop partici-pants for accepting the challenge of creating a frameworkfor regional assessment of climate issues, and noted that theWorkshop was an early step in a sustained effort tounderstand and cope with the consequences of climatevariability and change.

A Climate System Perspective

Following Dr. Gibbons’ remarks, the Workshop heardpresentations from four representatives of the scientificcommunity:

• Fred MacKenzie (University of Hawai‘i), who providedsome additional comments on the enhanced greenhouseeffect and global warming;

• Gerald Meehl (National Center for AtmosphericResearch), who highlighted some important patterns ofclimate variability and change and their consequencesfor the Pacific, and discussed what the future may holdbased upon studies using global climate models;

• Roger Lukas (University of Hawai‘i), who addressedissues related to El Niño and other aspects of seasonal-to-interannual climate variability, and the developmentof an end-to-end climate prediction program for thePacific; and,

• Charles (Chip) Guard (Water and EnvironmentResearch Institute, University of Guam), who providedexamples of the practical applications of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions based on the experiencesof the Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC)during the 1997–1998 El Niño.

Presentations by these panelists were designed to provideWorkshop participants with a scientific overview of theclimate system, including the nature of processes thatdetermine climate variability and change on a global scale;the regional manifestations of those climate processes;emerging capabilities to forecast climate variability onseasonal and year-to-year time scales, and the potential useof this information to address practical problems; andprospects for assessing the regional consequences of longer-term climate change.

Key points raised during Dr. MacKenzie’s presentationincluded:

• The possible role of sulfate, soot, and other aerosolparticles in producing a regional cooling effect in thePacific, with particular attention to an anticipatedincrease in aerosol concentrations associated with fossilfuel emissions (SO

2), biomass burning and volcanic

eruptions. In this context, Dr. MacKenzie highlightedthe importance of addressing regional cooling associatedwith aerosols in model-based projections of climatechange in the Western Pacific;

• Projections of sea level changes that would havesignificant consequences for Pacific Islands, includingincreased shoreline erosion, saltwater intrusion and areduction in the volume of groundwater (the freshwaterlens) in many islands; and

19

• The importance of anticipating potential “surprises” inthe way the Earth’s climate system responds to globalwarming associated with greenhouse gases— withparticular attention to potentially significant changes inocean circulation and biological feedbacks, neither ofwhich are adequately represented in current globalclimate models.

Dr. Meehl described the results of a number of studiesusing global climate models to highlight potentiallyimportant patterns of climate change in the Pacific,including possible changes in El Niño or the persistence ofEl Niño-like conditions. Using the 1997–1998 El Niño asan example, Dr. Meehl highlighted what such conditionsmight mean for rainfall, temperature and tropical stormsthroughout the Pacific. He also informed the Workshopthat climate change might also affect longer-term (decadal)patterns of variability in the climate system, such as thePacific Decadal Oscillation characterized by periods ofwarmer and cooler sea-surface temperatures that appear tooscillate on timescales of around twenty years, with impactssimilar to those associated with the ENSO cycle.

Dr. Meehl used some of his own research on prolongeddroughts in Kapingamirangi, and periods of increasedtropical storm activity in American Samoa, to highlight thepotentially devastating human consequences of projectedclimate change. Citing the effects of sea-level rise as well,Dr. Meehl suggested we may face creation of “ecologicalrefugees”— individuals and communities forced to leavetheir homes as a result of changes in climate. Dr. Meehlclosed by suggesting steps that could be taken in the nearterm, including capitalizing on emerging capabilities andearly successes in the use of El Niño forecasts to supportdecision making; enhancing research on decadal patterns ofclimate variability; and conducting additional research andmodel-based studies to understand how and in what waysclimate change might change El Niño patterns or El Niño-like conditions in the Pacific.

Dr. Roger Lukas introduced Workshop participants to theconcept of “end-to-end prediction” of seasonal-to-interan-nual (year-to-year) climate variability, highlighting threecritical elements:

• Large-scale prediction of important climate systemprocesses and properties, such as sea-surface tempera-ture, surface winds, rainfall, sea level, ocean currentsand air temperatures;

• Assessment efforts designed to identify the impacts ofclimate variability, and determine the extent to whichthose impacts are reflected as regional stresses onresources and sectors such as water resources, fisheries,coral reefs, and public health and safety, particularly

impacts associated with tropical storms and otherextreme events; and,

• The practical application of climate predictions insupporting decision-making in the public and privatesectors, particularly in the Pacific Region.

In this context, Dr. Lukas provided participants with auseful primer on the ENSO cycle in the tropical Pacific,and associated changes in rainfall, winds and tropicalstorms; waterborne disease vectors, and ocean temperatureand circulation patterns (with implications for coral reefs,fisheries and other coastal and marine resources). Dr. Lukasdescribed the intricate interactions between the ocean andatmosphere that give rise to the ENSO cycle, and reviewedthe historical record of ENSO events. He then summarizedcurrent capabilities in ENSO prediction and provided acomparison of forecasts and observations of the 1997–1998 El Niño by way of example.

Mr. Chip Guard then shared a story about forecastingdrought conditions associated with the 1997–1998 ElNiño, in order to provide an overview of the challenges andopportunities of using forecasts of year-to-year climatevariability in the Pacific. He began with an overview of thePEAC, a joint effort involving the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration (through its Office of GlobalPrograms, and the National Weather Service’s PacificRegion Office), the University of Hawai‘i (through itsSocial Science Research Institute, and School of Ocean andEarth Sciences and Technology), and the University ofGuam’s Water and Environment Research Institute. Since1994, PEAC has provided forecasts of El Niño for U.S.-affiliated Pacific Island jurisdictions and supported acomplementary program of education and outreachdesigned to promote practical use of those forecasts inactivities like emergency preparedness and water resourcemanagement. In describing the PEAC experience, Mr.Guard emphasized the importance of combining observa-tions with model-based forecasts and local insights, i.e., ateam effort that capitalizes on the special expertise andunique capabilities of individuals and institutions workingtoward a common goal— the development, provision andapplication of climate forecasts for the benefit of PacificIsland jurisdictions.

During his presentation, Mr. Guard highlighted a numberof valuable lessons learned from the PEAC experience,including:

• The importance of forecasting not only the onset,duration and intensity of ENSO events, but also, to theextent possible, the specific impacts that might beanticipated, particularly changes in rainfall and tropicalstorms;

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• The value of using historical analogs (i.e., comparisonswith similar ENSO events in the past) to help scientistsand users understand what to expect;

• The challenge and importance of making scientificinformation understandable, useful and usable;

• The need to develop a clear understanding of bothimpacts and available response options, with an eyetoward understanding (and addressing) the scientific,technical, institutional and policy constraints (andopportunities) on the use of climate forecasts; and,

• The importance of sustained face-to-face interactionbetween scientists, forecasters and users of climateforecast information in governments, businesses andcommunities— a sustained dialogue that promotesshared learning and joint problem-solving.

A Community Planning and Economic DevelopmentPerspectiveA second panel provided Workshop participants with a viewof climate variability and change from the perspective ofpeople who represented what the panel Chair called “usersof scientific information,” noting that their livelihoods andthat of their employees and customers are affected byclimate variability and change. This perspective waspresented by:

• Robin Campaniano (AIG Insurance Hawai‘i);

• Robert Fraser Ripp (GST Telecom Hawai‘i);

• Richard Cox, Hawai‘i Sate Water Commission; and,

• Richard Ha, President of Kea‘au Banana Farms.

This second panel was organized to provide an overview ofsome critical regional issues in community planning andeconomic development; particular attention was given tosectors and communities that are sensitive to climatevariability and change, and the goal was to identify oppor-tunities to improve decision-making through the use of newscientific information.

Mr. Robin Campaniano provided insights into how andwhy climate matters to individuals and businesses con-cerned with insurance. He specifically highlighted thechallenges of providing property and casualty insurance inareas subject to natural hazards such as hurricanes andtropical storms. Referring specifically to wind damage fromstorms, Mr. Campaniano described the importance ofcurrent efforts to reduce damages— through better buildingcodes, for example— but also noted the potential benefitsassociated with improving emergency planning andpreparedness through incorporation of information onclimate variability (particularly El Niño) and change. In thiscontext, he suggested that the insurance industry’s interestsin climate change would most likely involve issues such as:

• Hurricanes and storm surge;

• Flooding;

• Agricultural losses;

• Health effects; and,

• Economic losses from business interruptions (such asthose suffered on the island of Kaua‘i followingHurricane Iniki).

Mr. Campaniano specifically mentioned the emergence ofcatastrophic-loss-modeling as an important new tool in theinsurance sector, and suggested that incorporation ofclimate information and projections in those models mightoffer important improvements (e.g., more equitablepremium prices that reflect areas of greater or lower risk, toavoid discounting or inflating the true cost of coverage).While acknowledging these opportunities, Mr.Campaniano cautioned that there are significant scientific,institutional, economic and ethical challenges associatedwith changes to the way in which the insurance industrydoes business. He noted specifically the need to address thetimeliness and accuracy of climate predictions, as well asthe evaluation of response options. In conclusion, he notedthat it was “economically essential that we develop a morecomplete understanding of climate events.”

Mr. Robert Ripp provided some insights into the impor-tance of climate information for the telecommunicationsindustry, noting the dual role of telecommunications inboth collecting data and communicating information. Mr.Ripp pointed out that telecommunications businesses areprimarily concerned with avoiding service interruptionsassociated with disturbances such as winds. He added thatunderstanding weather and atmospheric conditions is vitalto planning decisions regarding what type of systems toinstall (e.g., choosing fiber optics or satellite options vs.microwave systems, which are more vulnerable to winddisturbances). Mr. Ripp noted that these could be “life ordeath decisions” for both companies and communities,particularly in isolated island settings. In addition tosystem design and planning decisions, Mr. Ripp alsodiscussed Hurricane Iniki to highlight the potential benefitof improved weather and climate information in support-ing decisions about positioning fall-back systems. Insummary, he said that information about climate variabilityand change would be important for both strategic planningand disaster preparedness in the telecommunications sector.

Mr. Richard Cox spoke from the perspective of someonewho has been involved in water resource management,providing interesting insights into how and why climatematters in that sector. He began his comments by notingthat current climate conditions (including issues related to

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natural variability like ENSO) are already concerns forcommunities and businesses, and highlighted the impor-tance of understanding what changes are likely to occur,and what steps would be appropriate to build systems thatcan adjust to those changing conditions. Mr. Cox notedthat weather and climate information and research arealready important to the water sector (e.g., hurricane anddrought forecasting and preparedness). He noted thatchanges in rainfall, tropical storms and other extremeevents, sea-level rise, and increasing temperatures, wereimportant issues from a water resources perspective. Healso identified some related issues that could benefit fromenhanced information on climate variability and change,including:

• Incorporation of information about climate-relatednatural hazards into planning for major new facilitiesand developments (e.g., information on changingpatterns of tropical storms, or changes in rainfallpatterns that could affect flooding and slope stability);and,

• Improved information on rainfall and water resourcesfor agriculture, which he noted is the largest consumerof water on all Hawaiian islands except O‘ahu.

Mr. Cox noted that most decisions about water resourcesare based on historical rainfall data and long-term averages,and suggested that some consideration be given to incorpo-rating emerging forecasting capabilities (like El Niñoforecasts) and new insights about the possible consequencesof climate change; he said information on climate variabil-ity and change might, for example, be useful in reassessingaquifer capacities. In addition, he said that exploring thedirect and indirect consequences of climate variability andchange could help resolve possible response conflicts byproviding an opportunity to conduct “what if ” scenarios toidentify problem areas and review response options (such aswater reuse and conservation measures). Noting that he isnaturally somewhat conservative or skeptical about newideas and projections of future conditions, he emphasizedthe importance of conducting more research on climatevariability and change, and sustaining a dialogue amonggovernment agencies, businesses, scientists and communi-ties in order both to anticipate what might happen and todevelop effective response strategies.

Richard Ha provided Workshop participants with insightsinto climate and weather from the perspective of a com-mercial farmer in Hawai‘i. He started his presentation byhighlighting the importance of agriculture’s contribution toHawai‘i’s economy: an annual contribution of $.5 billionin direct crop value, and a value-added contribution of $1billion. Mr. Ha provided a brief description of his bananafarming enterprise, noting the critical importance of the

abundant rainfall that “irrigates” his Big Island farm (130inches/year, compared to Hawai‘i’s average of 32 inches/year); this translates into 3.5 billion gallons/acre/year of“free water” for his farm. He added that when he consid-ered expanding his activities on either the Big Island orO‘ahu (which is closer to markets), his decision “turned onwater” and led him to expand his Big Island site.

Mr. Ha acknowledged that anticipation of drought is apersistent factor in farm operations, and said he recentlyinstalled an irrigation system (in-ground pipes and driptape). This irrigation system allows him to prepare fordroughts and reduce losses and, in fact, helped himminimize the effects of the dry conditions associated withthe 1997–1998 El Niño. This same irrigation system canalso provide him with the flexibility to diversify by growingother crops when rains are abundant. He expressed aspecific interest in having access to climate forecastinformation (such as El Niño forecasts) to further enhancehis ability to prepare for and deal with droughts and otherextreme events. He went on to say that hurricanes are alsoan important factor in a farmer’s decisions— noting that“we expect drought and we expect to get flattened”periodically. As a result, better information about whatclimate variability and change might mean for hurricaneswould also be useful to the agricultural sector.

A Habitat and Natural Resources PerspectiveA third panel looked at the implications of climatevariability and change for critical habitats and uniquenatural resources in Pacific Island settings. This perspectivewas presented by:

• Oliver Chadwick, University of California at SantaBarbara;

• Peter Vitousek, Stanford University; and,

• Ray Carter, CASAMAR, Guam.

This final panel of the opening day was organized toprovide an overview of key issues related to the uniqueecosystems and resources of the region, including howclimate variability and change interacts with humanactivities such as land use to affect biodiversity; what canbe learned from islands as models of climate change; andwhat the implications are for climate variability and changefor critical resources such as water and fisheries.

Dr. Chadwick cited his work on the Big Island to offersome insights into the importance of island settings inhelping to understand ecosystem processes and climate/ecosystem interactions. He noted that climate is one of thesystems that can be analyzed when studying ecosystems(along with specific organisms, topical relief, parent

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material and time). He said the ‘ohi‘a tree is the dominantplant species in his study area, which simplifies his choice ofan organism to study. And because the parent material (alava base) is pretty much the same everywhere in the area,and as a result, time can be calculated pretty accurately bydetermining distance (time) from the geologic hotspot thatgave rise to the Hawaiian islands, he has the opportunity tofocus on determining and understanding how changes inclimatic conditions might account for historic and currentvariations in ‘ohi‘a in different parts of the island; he notedin particular the value of marked changes in rainfallconditions at different elevations along the Big Island’smountain slopes.

Focusing specifically on rainfall as a key climate factor, Dr.Chadwick noted that the Big Island is characterized bydiverse environmental conditions above and below theinversion layer, which lies at about 7,000 feet and marks atransition to a relative “polar desert” at the top of MaunaKea. He also noted that there are two principal sources ofrainfall that affect vegetation on the Big Island— stormscarried by tradewinds that do not get over the mountains,and cyclonic storms (Kona storms) that bring rain to allparts of the island. Understanding (and comparing) thevegetation regimes that result from these two differentsources of rainfall can help clarify how vegetation andecosystems might vary in response to climate-inducedchanges in rainfall patterns. He cautioned, however, that hisresearch has revealed a high variability in rainfall at somesites, and suggested that this variability might justifyreconsidering concepts like “median rainfall,” which iscommonly used in climate-vegetation studies. Dr. Chadwickclosed his remarks by suggesting that Hawai‘i and PacificIslands in general could be called a “microcosm of nature”with very few external factors to complicate studies of howand why climate matters to island ecosystems.

Dr. Peter Vitousek offered some thoughts on what hisresearch on certain bird species in Hawai‘i suggests aboutthe consequences of climate variability and change. Hebegan his discussion by noting that climate change is onlyone of a number of important factors affecting ecosystemand species change, including land-use change, biologicalinvasions/exotic species, and biodiversity. He noted, forexample, how changes in land cover associated withagricultural activity have been a factor throughout Hawai‘i’shistory. Dr. Vitousek also emphasized the importance ofunderstanding the interplay among these various factors aswell as understanding individual factors like climate change.

He offered a specific example from his own research, whichhas clarified how the range of certain native bird species isnow determined in part by temperature constraints on an

introduced species of mosquito that serves as a vector for aparticularly virulent form of avian malaria. Populations ofthese birds now tend to be concentrated at higher eleva-tions where temperatures aren’t warm enough to sustain themosquito populations. Dr. Vitousek noted that increasingtemperatures associated with climate change might allowthe mosquito populations to move upslope, exposingnative birds to additional malaria risk with potentiallydevastating effects; these effects are particularly likely if thebirds are forced so far upslope that they encounter a loss ofhabitat beyond the “hard boundary” where forested areasgive way to pasture lands toward the top of Mauna Kea.He added that on the island of Kaua‘i, the situation is a bitworse because there is no area that would fall above thesurvivability threshold for the mosquitoes that carry avianmalaria. In contrast, the island of Maui contains sufficientupslope forest to provide habitat for birds as temperatureincreases and populations move higher.

Dr. Vitousek noted that his research reinforces the impor-tance of considering the impacts of and responses toclimate change in the context of other stresses such as land-use change. While variations in climate have occurred inthe past— with species and ecosystems adapting andchanging in response— many species may find thecombination of climate change with other stresses (likebiological invasions and land transformations) impossibleto accommodate. Recalling Dr. Chadwick’s comments, Dr.Vitousek reminded Workshop participants that under-standing and responding to the consequences of climatechange in islands could provide valuable models forscientists and decision-makers in other regions.

Mr. Ray Carter used the results of some recent work on theimpacts of the 1997–1998 El Niño on Pacific tuna fisheriesto provide insights into the relationship of climate to thisimportant component of Pacific Island economies; hiswork has been conducted in collaboration with Dr.Michael Hamnett and Ms. Cheryl Anderson at theUniversity of Hawai‘i. As Mr. Carter noted, commerciallyimportant stocks of yellowfin and skipjack tuna are highlymigratory species whose behavior responds, in part, toclimate variations such as El Niño. Confirming previouswork by others, Mr. Carter’s catch statistics indicate that ElNiño-related increases in ocean temperature in the EasternPacific were associated with an eastward shift in the catchof tuna; he cited specific examples drawn from areasaround the Federated States of Micronesia. In explanation,he said the temperature of the water affects the availabilityof food organisms, which, in turn, affects the tuna stocks.

This eastward shift in stock distribution can have signifi-cant economic implications. A shift out of a country’s

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Exclusive Economic Zone, for example, means less incomefrom license fees for Distant Water Fishing Nations.Similarly, changes in stock distribution can affect the levelof effort (and income) that must be expended by canneriesor transshipment facilities; conversely, knowledge of stockdistribution can help those facilities prepare for eitherenhanced opportunities or reductions in business. Inaddition, information about the effect of climate change ontuna stocks would be important for island businesses andgovernments planning to install new transshipmentfacilities or canneries, or anticipating the emergence oftuna fisheries as an important source of income. Mr. Carternoted that his data also showed a change in speciescomposition — an increase in more valuable stocks ofyellowfin with a decrease in skipjack stocks. Thus, whileoverall catch in the region was down, the economic valuefor an individual vessel might have been even.

Mr. Carter emphasized that while his research, and that ofothers, clearly shows a link between climate and tuna, thereis a need for considerably more data and research. En-hanced information about how climate variability like ElNiño affects commercially important tuna stocks from oneyear to the next could be extremely valuable to businessesand governments throughout the Pacific. Similarly, a betterunderstanding of how climate change might affect stockdistribution could help inform important decisions aboutthe role tuna fisheries can play in the future Pacific Islandeconomies.

Working Group Discussions of Vulnerability andResponse StrategiesOn the second and third days of the Workshop, partici-pants convened in small working groups for an in-depthexploration of regional vulnerabilities to climate variabilityand change, and discussions of near- and long-termstrategies for response to climate variability and change fordifferent sectors and communities. On the second day ofthe Workshop, participants considered climate-relatedvulnerabilities in six areas:

• Fisheries— including issues for commercial andrecreational fisheries, coastal and marine habitats, andthe concerns and rights of indigenous peoples;

• Agriculture— including issues for commercial agricul-ture, ranching and subsistence farming;

• Community Planning, Infrastructure and EconomicDevelopment— including issues for tourism andrecreation, energy, transportation, housing, communica-tions, and industry;

• Water Resources— including issues of fresh wateravailability, access and management;

• Biodiversity and Endangered Species— including issuesof species protection, ecosystem conservation andmanagement, resource development, tourism, and thecultural concerns and rights of indigenous peoples; and,

• Public Health and Safety— including issues of climate-related changes in water- and vector-borne diseases, airand water quality, and health and safety as it relates tonatural hazards like hurricanes and tropical storms.

Following guidelines provided to all regional workshopswithin the U.S. National Assessment, participants wereasked to address the following:

• What issues concern you (your sector) today?

• In what way are these issues (your sector) sensitive toclimate variability and change? and,

• What challenges do affected businesses, communitiesand ecosystems face in reducing risks or capitalizing onopportunities associated with climate variability andchange?

On the third day of the Workshop, participants discussedresponse strategies that provide an opportunity to:

• Identify critical information needs;

• Explore ways to overcome obstacles that inhibit the useof climate information to support decision-making invarious sectors; and

• Recommend near- and long-term actions that couldremove those obstacles.

These working groups were asked to evaluate scientific andtechnical gaps in understanding (What should we knowthat we don’t?); institutional and policy barriers to effectiveuse of climate information (Are changes required inpolicies or in public and private institutions to enhancedecision-making); and limitations on our ability to conveyand apply new scientific insights and research results (Howcan we improve the dialogue between scientists and keydecision-makers?).

Key Findings and RecommendationsFollowing a review of the findings and recommendationscontained in the final working group reports, the Chairsummarized key findings and recommendations underthree categories:

• Vulnerability issues common to all working groups andjurisdictions in the Pacific region;

• Shared principles that could guide the development ofeffective response strategies; and,

• Critical information needs that should help shapefuture research.

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Common Vulnerability Issues

• Climate variability and change are superimposed onmany other stresses, but information on interactionsand feedbacks is often lacking;

• In all sectors, year-to-year climate variability such asthat associated with ENSO and extreme events alreadyposes significant challenges to communities, businesses,governments and resource managers throughout theregion— and it is essential to understand how thisvariability might change;

• The geographic size and isolation of island communi-ties creates special circumstances (e.g., limited land andwater) and may constrain response options, whileconversely, island communities can be “models” forunderstanding and responding to the consequences ofclimate variability and change;

• The absence of a long-term, strategic planning structureor management vision enhances vulnerabilities in mostsectors;

• Required data sets are often missing or inaccessible,including biological and socioeconomic data andinformation on the physical environment:

• Monitoring, research and modeling programs areessential;

• Localized research is critical but difficult to support;

• There is an absence of research on the consequencesand costs of mitigation options.

• Infrastructure and community support services arealready stressed in most areas, and there is a need foradditional vulnerability assessments;

• Integration of climate information in decision-makingis limited and often based on historical data, creating ademonstrable need to anticipate conditions andincorporate emerging predictive capabilities and newscientific insights; and

• Scientific, institutional and communication barriers arecreating an information gap between scientists studyingclimate variability and change and the intended users/potential beneficiaries in governments, businesses andcommunities.

Shared Principles for the Design of Response Strategies

• Take advantage of and build on previous and ongoingefforts to identify and address the consequences ofclimate variability and change for island states andcommunities and start by linking existing institutionsand programs;

• Start by enhancing access to currently available datawhile new information is being developed; there is valuein what we have now so get it out there (e.g., integratingENSO forecasts into decision making now);

• Appropriate response strategies should recognize andrespect differences among political, cultural, economic

and natural systems in the region as well as the uniquecircumstances of island communities and the specialinsights of local (indigenous) peoples;

• Management and policy options should be flexible inorder to adapt to year-to-year natural variability in theclimate system and accommodate potential surprises;

• Effective responses require strengthened and newpartnerships involving scientists/scientific institutions,businesses, governments and communities;

• Proactive (precautionary) rather than reactive approachesare preferred—integrate climate information intodecisions on a regular and continuing basis;

• Look for future opportunities while addressing today’sproblems;

• Enhance education activities – formal and informaleducation programs; address all ages; including informa-tion on both anticipated changes and response options;

• Identify, secure and sustain the necessary human andfinancial resources;

• Involve information users in the development of newclimate information products; users and providers shouldregularly (and jointly) evaluate the usefulness andusability of climate information products and assessprogress; and, finally,

• A continuing, interactive dialogue among scientists anddecision makers in the public and private sectors isessential; this requires a sustained commitment to thetranslation and communication of research results and aneffective program of outreach and education… this mayrequire the creation of new institutional arrangements.

Critical Information Needs

• Regular and reliable access to emerging forecastingcapabilities on year-to-year time scales;

• Improved understanding of the physical, social andeconomic implications of climate variability and changefor key sectors to support near-term decision making andlong-term planning;

• Improved understanding of regional trends in demo-graphics and economic development to support local/regional planning and assess the consequences of climatevariability and change;

• Improved understanding of the effects of climatevariability and change on unique (Pacific) islandecosystems, critical habitats and key species in the region;

• Improved understanding of the health-related conse-quences of climate variability and change in the region;and

• Maintenance of a continuing dialogue among scientistsand public and private sector interests to identifychanging information needs, support decision-makingand take advantage of new scientific insights andemerging technologies.

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Next StepsThe March 1998 Workshop participants identified anumber of next steps which have subsequently beenpursued by the Workshop organizers and sponsors in thecontext of a Pacific Islands regional contribution to the firstNational Assessment of the Consequences of ClimateVariability and Change for the United States. The keyfindings and recommendations from the March 1998Workshop were provided to the National AssessmentSynthesis Team and used to design an 18-month initialPacific Islands Regional Assessment Project. Funding forthis initial assessment project was provided to the East-West Center (Honolulu, HI) through a grant from theNational Science Foundation (NSF) on behalf of NSF,NOAA, NASA and the Department of the Interior. Theproject is scheduled to be completed at the end of calendaryear 2000.

Building on the findings and recommendations of theMarch 1998 Workshop, the initial Pacific Islands RegionalAssessment has been organized to achieve the overarchinggoal of nurturing the critical partnerships necessary todevelop and use climate information to enhance the abilityof scientists and decision makers throughout the Pacific tounderstand and respond to the challenges and opportuni-ties presented by climate variability and change.

Based on the findings of the March 1998 Workshop,highest priority in the Pacific Islands Regional Assessmentis being given to: water resources; public health and safety(with an emphasis on extreme events); and the specialchallenges of climate variability and change for islandcoastal communities and ecosystems.

Like the March 1998 Workshop and the National Assess-ment, the Pacific Islands Regional Assessment is pursuingdual, mutually reinforcing objectives:

• Conducting research and analysis to develop a morecomplete understanding of regional consequences; and

• Initiating and sustaining an interactive dialogue tosupport decision-making.

This latter objective responds to the March 1998Workshop’s call to maintain the momentum initiated bythat gathering and establish a regional network of individu-als and institutions who will: further explore the conse-quences of climate variability and change for communities,businesses, governments and natural systems; identify andpursue opportunities for long-term partnerships to supportthe development and use of climate information; andidentify and pursue opportunities for near- and long-termsupport for ongoing and new programs and the develop-

ment of new institutional capabilities. In this context, theinitial Pacific Islands Regional Assessment is supporting aseries of workshops and small-group meetings (“roundtablediscussions”) designed to provide opportunities for in-depth exploration of how and why climate variability andchange matter for key sectors (e.g., tourism), resources(e.g., coastal resources, water resources) and communities(e.g., the Native Hawaiian community). The process ofshared learning and joint problem solving characterized bythis program of outreach and education is the program-matic backbone of the emerging Pacific Islands RegionalAssessment. The Assessment process is providing thecentral support structure around which a new, regionalclimate information service is taking shape— a service thatresponds to the findings and recommendations of theMarch 1998 Workshop.

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Workshop Steering CommitteeWorkshop on the Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for Hawai‘i and the Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities

Roy PriceHawai‘i State Office of Civil DefenseHonolulu, Hawai‘i

Kitty SimondsWestern Pacific Fishery Management Council

Peter VitousekStanford University

Diane ZacharyMaui Pacific Center

Steering Committee Ex-officio Members

Margaret CummiskyOffice of the Honorable Daniel K. InouyeU.S. Senate

Paul DreslerOffice of Water and ScienceU.S. Department of the Interior

J. Michael HallOffice of Global ProgramsNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Dean Barry RaleighSchool of Ocean and Earth Sciences and TechnologyUniversity of Hawai‘i

Debra WadaOffice of the Honorable Daniel AkakaU.S. Senate

Alan YamamotoOffice of the Honorable Neil AbercrombieU.S. House of Representatives

Public Relations and Local ArrangementsDelores ClarkNational Weather Service—Pacific RegionNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Joseph Blanco1

Office of the GovernorState of Hawai‘i

Scott ClawsonHawai‘i Hurricane Relief FundHonolulu, Hawai‘i

Tony CostaPacific Ocean ProducersHonolulu, Hawai‘i

Charles (Chip) GuardWater and Environmental Research InstituteUniversity of Guam

Richard HagemeyerNational Weather Service-Pacific RegionNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Michael P. HamnettSocial Science Research InstituteUniversity of Hawai‘i

Alan HiltonPacific ENSO Applications CenterUniversity of Hawai‘i/NOAA

David KennardRegion IX, Pacific Area OfficeFederal Emergency Management Agency

Roger LukasSchool of Ocean and Earth Sciences and TechnologyUniversity of Hawai‘i

Fred MackenzieSchool of Ocean and Earth Sciences and TechnologyUniversity of Hawai‘i

Clyde MarkOutrigger Hotels and ResortsHawai‘i

Jerry NorrisPacific Basin Development CouncilHonolulu, Hawai‘i

Jeffrey PolovinaNational Marine Fisheries Service, Honolulu Laboratory

1 In Mr. Blanco’s absence, the Governor’s Office was represented by Mr. Kelvin Char, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,who was on an Intergovernmental Personnel Act assignment to the Governor’s Office.

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Working Group Chairs and Rapporteurs4

Workshop on the Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for Hawai‘i and the Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities

Working Group on Water ResourcesModeratorsTom GiambellucaGeography DepartmentUniversity of Hawai‘i

Phil MoravcikGeography DepartmentUniversity of Hawai‘i

RapporteurAlan HiltonPacific ENSO Applications CenterUniversity of Hawai‘i/NOAA

Working Group on Biodiversity and Endangered SpeciesModeratorPeter VitousekStanford University

RapporteurSusan BassowOffice of Science and Technology PolicyExecutive Office of the President

Working Group on Public Health and SafetyModeratorsJoseph ChungUnited Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs

Roy PriceHawai‘i State Office of Civil Defense

RapporteurSusi MoserHarvard University

Working Group on FisheriesModeratorsTony CostaPacific Ocean ProducersHonolulu, Hawai‘i

Jeff PolovinaNational Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA Honolulu Laboratory

RapporteurRay ClarkePacific Islands Area OfficeNational Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA

Working Group on AgricultureModeratorsKelvin CharOffice of the GovernorState of Hawai‘i

Wil OrrPrescott CollegeArizona

RapporteurDavid CashHarvard University

Working Group on Community Planning, Infrastructureand Economic DevelopmentModeratorsKem LowryDepartment of Urban and Regional PlanningUniversity of Hawai‘i

Craig MacDonaldDepartment of Business, Economic Development andTourismState of Hawai‘i

RapporteurBlair HenryPacific Northwest Climate Council

4These individuals were responsible for leading discussions of regional climate vulnerability during the March 1998 Workshop; the reports oftheir deliberations provided a foundation for the final Pacific Islands Regional Assessment Report.

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ParticipantsWorkshop on the Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the Hawai‘i-Pacific Region:Challenges and Opportunities

Prof. John BardachProfessor EmeritusUniversity of Hawai‘i East-West CenterEnvironmental Programs1601 East-West RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96848-1601PHONE: 808/944-7266 FAX: 808/944-7298

Susan BassowU.S. Office of Science and Technology PolicyEnvironment Division17th and Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W.Old Executive Office BuildingWashington, D.C. U.S.A. 20015PHONE: 202/456-6083 FAX: 202/456-6025EMAIL: sbassow@ostp.eop.gov

Abra BennettVice PresidentRoss & Associates Environmental Consulting,Ltd.1218 Third Avenue, Suite 1207Seattle, Washington U.S.A. 98101PHONE: 206/447-1805 FAX: 206/447-0956EMAIL: abra.bennett@ross-assoc.com

Joseph BlancoOffice of the Governor, State of Hawai‘iState CapitolHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/586-0022 FAX: 808/586-0782EMAIL: blanco@aloha.net

Dr. Cary BloydDirector, Asia-Pacific Sustainable DevelopmentCenterUniversity of Hawai‘i East-West Center1601 East-West RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96848PHONE: 808/944-7249 FAX: 808/944-7559EMAIL: bloyd@anl.gov

James BuizerU.S. NOAA Office of Global Programs1100 Wayne Avenue, Suite 1225Silver Spring, Maryland U.S.A. 20910PHONE: 301/427-2089 FAX: 301/427-2082EMAIL: buizer@ogp.noaa.gov

Ray CarterCASAMAR178 Industrial AvenuePiti, Guam 96925PHONE: 671/472-1468 FAX: 671/477-4800EMAIL: casaman@kuentos.guam.net

Dr. Oliver ChadwickDepartment of GeographyUniversity of CaliforniaSanta Barbara, California U.S.A. 93106PHONE: 805/893-4223 FAX: 805/893-8686EMAIL: oac@geog.ucsb.edu

Dr. Pao-Shin ChuAssociate Professor, Department of MeteorologyUniversity of Hawai‘i2525 Correa RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822-2291PHONE: 808/956-2567 FAX: 808/956-2877EMAIL: chu@soest.hawaii.edu

Delores ClarkPublic Affairs Officer, Pacific RegionU.S. National Weather Service, NOAA737 Bishop Street, Suite 2200,Grosvenor Center, Mauka TowerHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813-3214PHONE: 808/532-6411 FAX: 808/532-5569EMAIL: delores.clark@noaa.gov

Scott D. ClawsonHawai‘i Hurricane Relief Fund841 Bishop Street, Davis Pacific Center, Suite 807Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/586-3100 FAX: 808/586-3109EMAIL: sclawson@scd.hawaii.gov

Christopher H. BoggsPacific Area OfficeU.S. National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA2570 Dole StreetHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822-2396PHONE: 808/948-9706 FAX: 808/973-2941EMAIL: christopher.boggs@noaa.gov

Robin CampanianoPresident and Chief Executive OfficerAIG Hawai‘i Insurance Company500 Ala Moana Boulevard, Six Waterfront Plaza,Fourth FloorHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/543-9708 FAX: 808/521-1802EMAIL: rcampaniano@aighawaii.com

David CashCenter for Science and International AffairsHarvard University79 John F. Kennedy StreetCambridge, Massachusetts U.S.A. 02138PHONE: 617/496-9330 FAX: 617/495-8963EMAIL: cashdav@ksg.harvard.edu

Kelvin CharOffice of the Governor , State of Hawai‘iState CapitolHonolulu, HI U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/586-0131 FAX: 808/586-0122 or 0006EMAIL: char.clark@worldnet.att.net

Joseph ChungChief Technical AdvisorU.N. Department of Humanitarian Affairs SouthPacific Programme OfficePrivate Mail Bag, c/o UNDPSuva, FijiPHONE: 679/303-239 FAX: 679/304-942EMAIL: joe@undha.org.fj

Steven AlberHawai‘i Department of Business, EconomicDevelopment and TourismEnergy, Resources, and Technology DivisionP.O. Box 2359Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96804PHONE: 808/587-3837 FAX: 808/587-3839EMAIL: salber@dbedt.hawaii.gov

Dr. Bruce AndersonDeputy Director for Environmental HealthHawai‘i Department of HealthP.O. Box 3378Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96801PHONE: 808/586-4424 FAX: 808/586-4444

Dr. Carter AtkinsonBiological Resources DivisionU.S. Geological Survey, DOlPacific Island Field CenterP.O. Box 218Hawai‘i National Park, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96718PHONE: 808/967-8119 x271 FAX: 808/967-8545EMAIL: Carter.Atkinson@usgs.gov

Dr. Anthony G. BarstonClimate Prediction CenterU.S. National Weather ServiceW/NP515200 Auth Road, World Weather Building, Room 806Camp Springs, Maryland U.S.A. 20746-4304PHONE: 301/763-8155 x7515 FAX: 301/763-8395

Sam BelluKAJURP.O. Box 5159, JokadaEbeye RMI 96970PHONE: 692/329-3081 FAX: 692/329-3188

David BlakeOffice of the PresidentGovernment of the Republic of the MarshallIslandsP.O. Box 2Majuro RMI 96960PHONE: 692/625-3445 FAX: 692/625-3685

Marita AllegrePacific Region HeadquartersU.S. National Weather Service, NOAA737 Bishop Street, Grosvenor Bldg., MaukaTower, Room 2200Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813-3213PHONE: 808/532-6426 FAX: 808/532-5569EMAIL: Marita.Allegre@noaa.gov

Cheryl L. AndersonUniversity of Hawai‘iSocial Science Research Institute2424 Maile WaySocial Sciences Building 719Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA 96822Tel: 808-956-3908Fax: 808-956-2889Email: canderso@hawaii.edu

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Raymond P. ClarkePacific Islands Area OfficeU.S. National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA2570 Dole StreetHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822PHONE: 808/973-2986 FAX: 808/973-2941EMAIL: rclarke@honlab.nmfs.hawaii.edu

Jack M. ColbournU.S. Environmental Protection Agency75 Hawthorne Street, Mail Code AD-8San Francisco, California U.S.A. 94105PHONE: 415/744-1239 FAX: 415/744-1076

Douglas E. CollinsonArchitectural DesignCosanti Foundation1088 Bishop Street, 3009 Executive CenterHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/599-4911 FAX: 808/599-4911

Richard H. CoxCommission on Water Resource ManagementP.O. Box 621Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96809PHONE: 808/587-0214 FAX: 808/581-0219

James DohertyU.S. National Weather Service, NOAA1325 East-West Highway, W/OSO1, Room 16301Silver Spring, Maryland U.S.A. 20910EMAIL: James.Doherty@noaa.gov

Dr. Katherine C. EwelInstitute for Pacific Island ForestryU.S.D.A. Forest Service1151 Punchbowl Street, Room 323Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/522-8230 FAX: 808/522-8236EMAIL: Kewel@gte.net

Dr. Jefferson M. FoxSenior Fellow, Program on EnvironmentUniversity of Hawai‘i East-West Center1601 East-West RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96848-1601PHONE: 808/944-7266 FAX: 808/944-7298EMAIL: foxj@ewc.hawaii.edu

Dr. Thomas GiambellucaDepartment of GeographyUniversity of Hawai‘i at Manoa2424 Maile Way, Porteus HallHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822PHONE: 808/956-7683 FAX: 808/956-3152EMAIL: tom@climate.soc.hawaii.edu

Kevin GoodingBoard of Water SupplyCity and County of Honolulu630 South Beretania StreetHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96843PHONE: 808/527-5285 FAX: 808/527-6195EMAIL: mokulua@lava.net

GIasstine CorneliusAdminstrator, Division of Crops Production andResearchKosrae State GovernmentDepartment of Agriculture and LandKosrae State FSM 96944PHONE: 691/370-3017 FAX: 691/370-3952

Paul DalzellWestern Pacific Regional Fishery ManagementCouncil1164 Bishop Street, Suite 1400Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/522-8220 FAX: 808/522-8226

Dr. Jack EwelDirector, Institute for Pacific Island ForestryU.S.D.A. Forest Service1151 Punchbowl Street, Room 323Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/522-8230 FAX: 808/522-8236EMAIL: jackewel@gte.net

Richard FontaineWater Resources DivisionU.S. Geological Survey, DOl677 Ala Moana Boulevard, Suite 415Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/522-8290 FAX: 808/522-8298EMAIL: rfontaine@usgs.gov

Steven L. GeorgeProject Analyst, Division of Planning andStatisticsKosrae State GovernmentDepartment of AdministrationTofol, Kosrae FSM 96944PHONE: 691/370-3163 FAX: 691/370-2004EMAIL: kosplan@mail.fm

Dr. John H. GibbonsDirectorU.S. Office of Science and Technology PolicyExecutive Office of the President17th Street and Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.Old Executive Office Building, Room 424Washington, D.C. U.S.A. 20500PHONE: 202/456-7116 FAX: 202/456-6021

Bob GoughRosebud Sioux Tribe Utility CommissionIntertribal Council on Utility PolicyP.O. Box 25Rosebud, South Dakota U.S.A. 52570PHONE: 715/426-1415 FAX: 715/426-1415 x51EMAIL: prwgough@aol.com

Chip GuardWater and Energy Research InstituteUniversity of GuamUOG Station, Lower CampusMangilao, Guam 96923PHONE: 671/735-2695 FAX: 671/734-8890EMAIL: chipguar@uog.edu

Robert HadleyWater EngineerGovernment of the Federated States of MicronesiaP.O. Box PS4Palikir, Pohnpei MicronesiaPHONE: 691/320-2821 FAX: 691/320-5832

Mike HamCZM Program ManagerGovernment of GuamBureau of PlanningP.O. Box 2950Agana, Guam 96932PHONE: 671/475-9672 FAX: 671/477-1812EMAIL: mham@kuentos.guam.net

Dr. Michael HamnettUniversity of Hawai‘i Social Science ResearchInstituteHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822PHONE: 808/956-7469 FAX: 808/956-2880EMAIL: hamnett@hawaii.edu

Jimmy HicksGovernment of the Federated States of MicronesiaP.O. Box PS-87Palikir, Pohnpei Micronesia 96941PHONE: 691/320-2609 FAX: 691/320-5500EMAIL: Jhicks@mail.fm

The Honorable Mazie K. HironoLieutenant GovemorState of Hawai‘iHawai‘i State CapitolHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/586-0255

Bill HorvathOahu Civil Defense Agency650 South King StreetHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/523-4121 FAX: 808/524-3439EMAIL: eaa0004@co.honolulu.hi.us

Richard HaKea’au Banana Plantation Inc.P.O. Box 787Kea’au, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96749PHONE: 808/966-7408

Richard H. HagemeyerDirector, Pacific RegionU.S. National Weather Service, NOAA737 Bishop Street, Suite 2200,Grosvenor Center, Mauka TowerHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813-3214PHONE: 808/532-6416 FAX: 808/532-5569EMAIL: richard.hagemeyer@noaa.gov

Steve HambalekU.S. Federal Emergency Management AgencyRegion IX, Pacific Area OfficeBuilding T -112, Stop 120Fort Shafter, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96858-5000PHONE: 808/851-7926 FAX: 808/857-7908EMAIL: stephen.hambalek@fema.gov

Blair HenryNorthwest Council on Climate Change4540 Second Avenue, N.E.Seattle, Washington U.S.A. 98105PHONE: 206/547-3871 FAX: 206/634-3192EMAIL: blairhenry@msn.com

Alan HiltonPacific ENSO Applications CenterNOAA Office of Global ProgramsUniversity of Hawai‘i2525 Correa Road, Department of Meteorology,HIG 331Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822PHONE: 808/956-2324 FAX: 808/956-2877EMAIL: hilton@soest.hawaii.edu

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Daniel J. HooverOceanography DepartmentUniversity of Hawai‘i1000 Pope RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822PHONE: 808/956-3285 FAX: 808/956-9225EMAIL: dhoover@soest.hawaii.edu

Dr. Joseph HuangU.S. Country Studies Management Team1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.,P.O. 6/GP-180, CSMTWashington, D.C. U.S.A. 20585PHONE: 202/586-3090 FAX: 202/586-3485EMAIL: jhuang@igc.apc.org

The Honorable Iso Salvador IriarteOffice of the Governor, and ChairmanPohnpei Council for a Sustainable FutureKolonia, Pohnpei FSM 96941PHONE: 691/320-2235 FAX: 691/320-2505

Hoyt Johnson IIITechnical Systems CoordinatorPrescott College Sustainability and GlobalChange Program220 North Grove StreetPrescott, Arizona U.S.A. 86301PHONE: 520/717-6070 FAX: 520/717-6073EMAIL: hjohnson@prescott.edu

Maurice KayaAdministratorHawai‘i Department of Business, EconomicDevelopment and Tourism,Energy, Resources, and Technology DivisionP.O. Box 2359Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A 96804PHONE: 808/587-3807 FAX: 808/586-2536EMAIL: mkaya@pixi.com

Dr. John L. KermondNOAA Office of Global Programs1100 Wayne Avenue, Room 1225Silver Spring, Maryland U.S.A. 20910PHONE: 301/427-2089 x22FAX: 301/427-2073EMAIL: kermond@ogp.noaa.gov

Roberto KnottEnvironmental SpecialistHawai‘ian Electric Company, IQC.P.O. Box 2750Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96840-0001PHONE: 808/543-7517 FAX: 808/543-7023EMAIL: RKnott@hei.com

George KrasnickDames & Moore1050 Queen Street, Suite 204Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96734PHONE: 808/593-1116 x25FAX: 808/593-1198EMAIL: hongk@dames.com

Chester LaoBoard of Water SupplyCity and County of Honolulu630 South Beretania StreetHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96843PHONE: 808/527-5285 FAX: 808/527-6195

Russell ItoHonolulu LaboratoryU.S. National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA2570 Dole StreetHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822-2396PHONE: 808/943-1221 FAX: 808/943-1290EMAIL: russell.ito@noaa.gov

Dr. John KanekoPacific Management ResourcesPACMAR, Inc.3615 Harding Avenue, Kaimuki Business Plaza,Suite 408/409Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96816PHONE: 808/735-2602 FAX: 808/734-2315EMAIL: pacusa@pixi.com

David N. KennardU.S. Federal Emergency Management AgencyRegion IX, Pacific Area OfficeBuilding T -112, Stop 120Fort Shafter, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96858-5000PHONE: 808/851-7917 FAX: 808/857-7908EMAIL: david.kennard@fema.gov

Michael KitamuraOffice of Senator Daniel AkakaPrince Kuhio Federal Building, Room 3104Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96850PHONE: 808/224-3934 FAX: 808/224-6747

Joseph M. KonnoExecutive Director,Environmental Protection AgencyGovernment of ChuukP.O. Box 189Weno, Chuuk FSM 96942PHONE: 691/330-4158FAX: 691/330-2613/2233

Dr. Mark LanderWater and Energy Research InstituteUniversity of GuamUniversity of Guam StationMangilao, GuamPHONE: 671/349-5286 FAX: 671/734-8890EMAIL: mlander@uog.edu

Penehuro LefaleSouth Pacific Regional Environment ProgrammeP.O. Box 240Apia, SamoaPHONE: 685/219.29 FAX: 685/202.31EMAIL: sprep@samoa.net

Glenn LockwoodDirector, Disaster ServicesAmerican Red Cross Hawai‘i State Chapter4155 Diamond Head RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96816-4417PHONE: 808/739-8114 FAX: 808/735-9738

Dr. G. Kem LowryProfessor, Department of Urban-RegionalPlanningUniversity of Hawai‘iPorteus Hall 107FHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822PHONE: 808/956-6868 FAX: 808/956-9225

Dr. Craig MacDonaldBranch Chief, Ocean Resources BranchHawai‘i Department of Business, EconomicDevelopment and TourismP.O. Box 2359Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96804-2359PHONE: 808/587-2690 FAX: 808/587-2777EMAIL: cmacdona@dbedt.hawaii.gov

Clyde R. MarkOutrigger Hotels and Resorts2375 Kuhio StreetHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96815-2992PHONE: 808/921-6575 FAX: 808/921-6505EMAIL: cmark@outrigger.com

Dr. Gerald MeehlClimate and Global Dynamics DivisionNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchP.0. Box 3000Boulder, Colorado U.S.A. 80307-3000PHONE: 303/497-1331 FAX: 303/497-1333EMAIL: meehl@ncar.ucar.edu

Mark MintonWestern Pacific Regional Fishery ManagementCouncil1164 Bishop Street, Suite 1400Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/522-8220 FAX: 808/522-8226

John E. MootebGovernment of the Federated States of MicronesiaP.O. Box PS-121Palikir, Pohnpei Micronesia 96941PHONE: 691/320-2228 FAX: 691/320-2785EMAIL: climate@mail.fm

Lloyd LoopeBiological Resources DivisionU.S. Geological Survey, DOIP.O. Box 369, Haleakala Field StationMakawao, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96768PHONE: 808/572-9306 x5936FAX: 808/572-1304EMAIL: Lloyd_Loope@usgs.gov

Dr. Roger LukasDepartment of OceanographyUniversity of Hawai‘i1000 Pope Road, MSB 312Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822PHONE: 808/956-7896 FAX: 808/956-9222EMAIL: rlukas@iniki.soest.hawaii.edu

Dr. Fred T. MackenzieDepartment of OceanographyUniversity of Hawai‘i1000 Pope Road, SOEST, MSB 525Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822PHONE: 808/956-6344 FAX: 808/956-7112EMAIL: fredm@soest.hawaii.edu

Joseph H. McDermottMarshall lslands-FSM-Navassa-Palmyra-WakeDesk OfficerU.S. Department of the InteriorOffice of Insular Affairs1849 C Street, N.W., Room 4328Washington, D.C. U.S.A. 20240PHONE: 202/208-6816 FAX: 202/208-5226EMAIL: jmcdermo@ios.doi.gov

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Francisco MendiolaChief, Water DivisionPohnpei Utilities CorporationPohnpei FSMPHONE: 691/320-2374

Dean MizumuraHawai‘ian Electric Company, Inc.P.O. Box 2750Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96840-0001PHONE: 808/543-7041 FAX: 808/543-7725EMAIL: dmizumur@hei.com

Dr. Phillip MoravcikWater Resources Research CenterUniversity of Hawai‘i2540 Dole Street, Holmes Hall, Room 283Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822PHONE: 808/956-3097 FAX: 808/956-5044EMAIL: morav@hawaii.edu

Dr. Mark MorrisseyOklahoma Climate SurveyUniversity of OklahomaSchools of the Pacific Rainfall Climate Experi-ment100 East Boyd, Suite 1210Norman, Oklahoma U.S.A. 73019PHONE: 405/325-2638 FAX: 405/325-2550EMAIL: mmorriss@ou.edu

Susan MurrayU.S. Federal Emergency Management AgencyBuilding T -112, Stop #120Fort Shafter, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96858-5000PHONE: 808/851-7900 FAX: 808/851-7940EMAIL: susan.murray@fema.gov

Jerry NorrisExecutive DirectorPacific Basin Development Council711 Kapiolani Boulevard, Suite 1075Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813-5214PHONE: 808/596-7229 FAX: 808/596-7249EMAIL: jnorris@elele.peacesst.hawaii.edu

Eric Ermes PaulAssistant Disaster Control OfficerGovernment of ChuukP.O. Box 189Chuuk FSM 96942PHONE: 691/330-4324 FAX: 691/330-2233

Dr. Jeffrey PolovinaChief, Ecosystem and Environment InvestigationU.S. National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA2570 Dole Street, Honolulu LaboratoryHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822-2396PHONE: 808/943-1218 FAX: 808/943-1290EMAIL: jpolovin@honlab.nmfs.hawaii.edu

Roy PriceVice DirectorHawai‘i State Civil Defense3949 Diamond Head RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96816-4495PHONE: 808/733-4300 FAX: 808/733-4287EMAIL: rprice@scd.hawaii.gov

Robert Fraser RippTelecommunication Technology AdvisorOffice of the GovernorState Capitol, Fifth FloorHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/586-0104EMAIL: rripp@gstworld.net

Suzanne MoserJ.F. Kennedy School of GovernmentHarvard UniversityBelfer Center for Science, International Affairs79 John F. Kennedy StreetCambridge, Massachusetts U.S.A. 02138PHONE: 617/496-9330 FAX: 617/495-8963EMAIL: suzanne_moser@harvard.edu

Arthy NenaHospital Administrator, Department of HealthServicesKosrae State GovernmentKosrae State Micronesia 96944PHONE: 691/370-3199 FAX: 691/370-3073EMAIL: agnena@mail.fm

Wilson W. OrrDirectory, Sustainability and Global ChangeProgramPrescott College220 South GrovePrescott, Arizona U.S.A. 86301PHONE: 520/717-6070 FAX: 520/717-6073EMAIL: worr@prescott.edu

Lelei PeauEconomic Development and Planning OfficeAmerican Samoa GovernmentPago Pago, American Samoa 96799PHONE: 684/633-5155 FAX: 684/633-4195EMAIL: Ipeau@ocean.nos.noaa.gov

Dr. Usha K. Prasad4410 Puu Panini AvenueHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96816PHONE: 808/737-4537EMAIL: usha@lava.net

Benedict J.G. ReyesDeputy DirectorGuam Civil DefenseP.O. Box 2877Agana, Guam 96910PHONE: 671/475-9672 FAX: 671/472-2569

Dr. John RoadsScripps Institution of Oceanography9500 Gilman Drive, USCD 0224, NH 441La Jolla, California U.S.A. 92093-0224PHONE: 619/534-2099 FAX: 619/534-8561EMAIL: jroads@ucsd.edu

Browny SalvadorSpecial Assistant to the PresidentRepublic of PalauP.O. Box 100Koror, Palau 96940PHONE: 680/488-2532 FAX: 680/488-1662

Eileen SheaCenter for the Application of Research on theEnvironment,IGES4041 Powder Mill Road, CARE, Suite 302Calverton, Maryland U.S.A. 20705-3106PHONE: 301/902-1272 FAX: 301/595-9793EMAIL: shea@cola.iges.org

Dr. John SibertManager, Pelagic Fisheries Research ProgramUniversity of Hawai‘iJoint Institute for Marine/Atmospheric Research1000 Pope Road, MSB 312, JIMARHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822PHONE: 808/956-4109 FAX: 808/956-4104EMAIL: jsibert@soest.hawaii.edu

John SkodaIndustrial Meteorology StaffU.S. National Weather Service, NOAAAttn: W/IM, Room 18102,1325 East-West HwySilver Spring, Maryland U.S.A. 20910PHONE: 301/713-0258 FAX: 301/713-0662EMAIL: John.Skoda@noaa.gov

Patrick SpearsIntertribal Council on Utility Policy30607 SD Highway 1806, Box 116Fort Pierre, South Dakota U.S.A. 57532PHONE: 605/223-9526 FAX: 605/856-2140

Annie SzveteczSierra ClubP.O. Box 2577Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96803PHONE: 808/988-1011 FAX: 808/988-1011

Togipa TausagaDirector, Environmental Protection AgencyAmerican Samoa GovernmentAmerican SamoaPHONE: 684/633-2304 FAX: 684/633-5801

Don SchugWestern Pacific Regional Fishery ManagementCouncil1164 Bishop Street, Suite 1400Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/522-8220 FAX: 808/522-8226

Temmy L. ShmullChief of Staff, Office of the PresidentRepublic of PalauP.O. Box 100Koror, Palau 96940PHONE: 680/488-2541 FAX: 680/488-1662

Lynn M. SicadeRMI Desk OfficerU.S. Department of State2201 C Street, N.W.Washington, D.C. U.S.A. 20520PHONE: 202/736-4710

John SohlithOffice of Planning and BudgetGovernment of YapP.O. Box 471Colonia, Yap FSM 96943PHONE: 691/350-2166 FAX: 691/350-4430EMAIL: johns@mail.fm

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Jeff SuttonHawai‘ian Volcano ObservatoryU.S. Geological Survey, DOIP.O. Box 51Hawai‘i National Park, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96718PHONE: 808/967-8805 FAX: 808/967-8890EMAIL: ajsutton@liko.wr.usgs.gov

Brooks H. TakenakaAssistant General ManagerUnited Fishing Agency, Ltd.117 Ahui StreetHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/536-2148 FAX: 808/526-0137EMAIL: ufa-hi@pixi.com

Melissa J. TaylorNational Assessment Coordination OfficeU.S. Global Change Research Program400 Virginia Avenue, S.W., Suite 750Washington, D.C. U.S.A. 20024PHONE: 202/314-2239 FAX: 202/488-8681EMAIL: mtaylor@usgcrp.gov

Jan TenBruggencateHonolulu AdvertiserP.O. Box 524Lihue, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96766PHONE: 808/245-3074

Andrea TorriceUniversity of OklahomaEUAC430 South Pickard AvenueNorman, Oklahoma U.S.A. 73069PHONE: 405/579-0658 FAX: 405/579-7441EMAIL: ant@telepath.com

Paolo A. Ulloa RamirezDirector for Ocean DynamicsNational Fisheries InstitutePitágoras No. 1320-Piso 4, Col. Sta. Cruz AtoyacMexico D.F. C.P. 03310 MexicoPHONE: 525/604-23-52 x118FAX: 525/604-48-87EMAIL: pabloaf@servidor.unam.mx

Dr. Peter VitousekHawai‘i Ecosystems ProjectStanford UniversityDepartment of Biological SciencesStanford, California U.S.A. 94305PHONE: 415/725-1866 FAX: 415/725-1856EMAIL: vitousek@leland.stanford.edu

Michael D. WilsonHawai‘i Department of Land and NaturalResources1151 Punchbowl Street, Room 130Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/587-0404 FAX: 808/587-0390

Dr. Hiroshi YamauchiProfessor, Water Resources Research CenterUniversity of Hawai‘iAgricultural and Resource Economics Depart-ment3050 Maile Way, Gilmore Hall, Room 104Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822PHONE: 808/956-8293 FAX: 808/956-2811EMAIL: hiroshi@hawaii.edu

The Honorable Terry Nui YoshinagaChair, Committee on Energy andEnvironmental ProtectionHawai‘i House of Representatives235 South Beretania Street, State CapitolHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/586-5450 FAX: 808/586-8454

Doug TomChief, Coastal Zone Management ProgramHawai‘i Office of State PlanningP.O. Box 2359Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96804-2359PHONE: 808/587-2875 FAX: 808/587-2899EMAIL: dtom@dbedt.hawaii.gov

Ray A. TulafonoDirector, Department of Marine and WildlifeResourcesAmerican Samoa GovernmentP.O. Box 3730Pago Pago, American Samoa 96799PHONE: 684/633-4456 FAX: 684/633-5944EMAIL: dmwr@samoatelco.com

Leah May B. VerOceanography DepartmentUniversity of Hawai‘i1000 Pope RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822PHONE: 808/956-7633 FAX: 808/956-9225

Phil WeigantU.S. National Weather Service, NOAA2667 South ToledoTulsa, Oklahoma U.S.A. 74114PHONE: 918/625-7585EMAIL: phillip.weigant@noaa.gov

Deborah WoodcockDepartment of GeographyUniversity of Hawai‘i2424 Maile Way, Porteus HallHonolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A.PHONE: 808/956-7526 FAX: 808/956-3652

Faustino YangmogAssistant ManagerYap State Public Service CorporationP.O. Box 667Colonia, Yap FSM 96943PHONE: 691/350-4427 FAX: 691/350-4518EMAIL: robwesterfield@mail.fm

Edward H. Young, Jr.Chief, Technical Services Division, Pacific RegionU.S. National Weather Service, NOAA737 Bishop Street, Mauka Tower, Suite 2200Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96813PHONE: 808/532-6412 FAX: 808/532-5569EMAIL: Edward.Young@noaa.gov

Tracy YoungHonolulu Forecast OfficeU.S. National Weather Service, NOAA2525 Correa Road, Suite 250Honolulu, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96822-2219

Diane ZacharyPresidentMaui Pacific Center590 Lipoa Parkway, Suite 202Kihei, Hawai‘i U.S.A. 96753PHONE: 808/875-2310 FAX: 808/875-2306EMAIL: dzachary@mauipacific.org

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APPENDIX F— PROCLAMATION BY THE GOVERNOR OF HAWAI‘I