The Convergence Theory of Economics
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Transcript of The Convergence Theory of Economics
Greece in the EuropeanUnion The Euro and
The Economic CrisisHow does Money Count?
Owner Mekita Coe 8/2/2012
Europe is the second smallest continent in the world. The
mainland of Europe is actually a Peninsula similar to the Queens
area Rockaways, in New York City. The Peninsula of Europe however
is much more massive. A great portion of Europe is the portion of
the continent that extends off of the tip of Europe. The
countries of Spain, Germany, France, Italy, and Greece are found
on this great peninsula.
There are no clear cut geographical borders to the continent
however in respect Europe is flanked to the east by the Caucasus
Mountains, the Ural River and the Ural Mountains which separate
it from Asia. The Mediterranean Sea separates Europe from Africa.
The Atlantic Ocean separates Europe on her western sides.
The southernmost point is identified by The Straits of Gibraltar
in the European nation of Spain which is only stopped by Portugal
and then the Atlantic Ocean.
Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Northern Europe, Southern Europe
and Western Europe describe and comprise the entire continent.
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The British Isles are not included in the description of Europe.
The area of Europe covers 8,876,000 miles of the earth’s surface.
There are ten countries in Eastern Europe. There are fifteen
countries in Northern Europe. There are nine countries in Western
Europe, and seventeen countries in Southern Europe.
Page 5 of 34
European UnionFinlandSweden
Norway
Ukraine
Romania
Belarus
Estonia
Latvia
LithuaniaDenmark
Poland
CzechRepublic Slovak
Republic
HungaryAustria
Germany
Netherlands
Belgium
France
Italy
SpainPortugal
UnitedKingdom
Ireland
Iceland
Greece
Bulgaria
Luxembourg
SwitzerlandMoldova
Albania
Macedonia
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosniaand
Herzegovina
CroatiaSloveniaLiechtenstein
Cyprus
Turkey
There are twenty seven member countries in The European Union.
Those countries are France, Germany, Ireland, Bulgaria, Cyprus,
The Check Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Italy,
Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland
Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, The United
Kingdom and Greece. These make up what is called the Euro Zone.
Of the twenty seven countries in the Euro Zone only seventeen use
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the Euro as currency. The United Kingdom, Denmark and Sweden have
opted out of using the Euro currency.
Yet non Eurozone countries such as Kosovo, San Marino,
Montenegro, Andorra and the Vatican City do use the Euro as
currency as well. Only 17 countries of the twenty seven member
nations of the European Union use the Euro as currency.
The euro is a form of money for 332 million Europeans, just like
the dollar is for the U.S. It is meant to be the currency that
unifies the 27-member European Union (EU). All members pledge to
adopt the Euro when they join the European Union. However, they
have to meet budget and other criteria, as set out by the
Maastricht Treaty, before they can join.
In 1949 The Council of Europe was formed in the after math of the
World War I and subsequently World War II.
In 1919 the Versailles Treaty was signed. The Versailles Treaty
greatly inhibited Germany’s ability to trade efficiently with
foreign European nations. Germany has always been a center of
trade in Europe. Yet, as an effect of the treaty (which had
political implications) it became nearly impossible for GermanyPage 7 of 34
to stabilize an exchange rate for foreign currencies (which was
an economic issue). Hitler’s original platform was to fight to
subdue overly competitive devaluations of the German currency
which had rocked Germany’s economy in the 1920’s and 1930’s. The
excessive devaluations came as an economic consequence of
misplaced German nationalism and insufficient European policy
coordination. The “free and flexible exchange rates in Europe
were among the main culprits for the economic and political
turmoil that occurred in Europe.
The exchange rate problems had brought Hitler to power.
(Collignon and Scharzer pg30).
Bretton Woods System 1944-1973
We all know too well what atrocities World War II entailed as
well as the wide spread destruction it caused. All of Europe was
crippled both physically and financially after World War II. It
was in 1944 that the Bretton Woods System went into effect. The
Bretton Woods System was an international monetary system which
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provided low exchange rates and created security and a greater
willingness to invest in productive exchange.
However without a stable means of valuation and monitoring of the
international exchange rates; chaos was always looming in the
darkness.
There was a feeling of “Euroclerosis”. Schmidt was a German
social democrat who shared his views on military strategy and
economics; in a 1967 Yale lecture, he is quoted saying “Strategy
as a social science is similar and comparable to economics, not
only because both disciplines are based on the economic principle
but because they share epistemological foundations. In both
disciplines we work with theoretical models, which then get
adapted, step by step, to the complex data of real situations…
securing peace [requires] international economic balance…The
Japanese have one currency for a market of 120 million people,
the Americans have one economy for 235 million. But we in Europe
have ten currencies for 275 million people” (Collignon and
Schwarzer pg.38).
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Schmidt’s belief of Verlasslichkeit or reliability in economic
behavior along with consistency could help solve political and
economic anarchy. He believed along with others that economic
conflicts and political unrest could be replaced with civil
order; when legitimate joint agreements managed by institutions
were put into place.
The one time French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing and
Chairman Hulmet Schmidt of Germany helped to bring the Current
European Union into existence. Giscard also believed that
monetary union could be achieved when all exchange rates were
permanently locked. Together they lobbied for the installation of
the Ecu or European currency unit. Europeans accepted the Ecu to
a large degree.
Bundesbank rejected the idea of the Ecu until the EMS; European
Exchange Mechanism was managed with a parity grid that kept
valuation exactly the same as valuation decided by the German
Bundesbank. Although contrary to all of these events currency
intervention still took place in US dollars not the Ecu. Schmidt
Page 10 of 34
Eurozone
Nations
“Germany's history and geopolitical position was the key for
Schmidt's understanding of the country's interests and strategic
policy orientations. Over centuries, Germany had been the focus
for centripetal advances from neighboring peoples such as the
Romans, Vikings, Genghis Khan, Turks, Swedes, French, and
Russians. And it had been at the core of centrifugal attacks
against other people in Europe such as Italy, Turkey, the Middle
East, Baltic States, Poland, France, and most violently under
Page 13 of 34
Hitler against nearly all of Europe. Schmidt drew a far-reaching
conclusion: it was in Germany's (and Europe's) interest to avoid
coalitions that could turn against Germany and the only way to do
so was by tying her into a large EU (Schmidt 1990:260). Schmidt
was convinced that in the long run the Germans would only remain
closely bound to the West, if the French worked with them. This
required a joint 'Grand Strategy' for Europe (Schmidt 1985:56).”
(Collignon and Schwarzer pg. 41)
By forming a union with common interests all European nations
could be strengthened and protected as opposed to being
threatened. Many French intellectual wanted to reject the idea of
a unified Europe. They doubted the foundations of a free market
with unrestricted movements of capital and a ‘stable exchange
rate’.
Some French believed that monetary autonomy could lead to
volatile exchange rates which could distort relative prices in
independent markets producing goods and services. This was termed
an inconsistent quartet. Stability could only be gained by
pooling monetary sovereignty and fixing exchange rates. French
Page 14 of 34
politicians were concerned with maintaining financial liberation.
They thought that the control of inflation and the establishment
of equilibrium required more than an overdraft economy. Financing
domestic and external deficits seemed to be more of a need to
address. However as history would have it they were the most
willing to create a stabilized currency.
By the 1960’s U.S experienced expansionist, as well as monetary
and budgetary problems of their own. American involvement in the
Vietnam War made the dollar an inconsistent anchor currency for
the European economies. The United States borrowed 11.8 billion
dollars from European countries in the late nineteen sixties.
U.S.A inflation spread to Europe.
The USA repaid $9.6 billion in its loans by 1970. Monies went
directly to the Bundesbank, whom responded by lowering interest
rates.
Waves of speculative capital flowed into Germany.
The Americans refused to the devaluation of the dollar.
Page 15 of 34
Prices increased in Germany at a slower rate than they did in the
rest of Europe.
The Deutschmark was an undervalued currency as was the Franc.
Germany then fixed the DEM at 3.66 against the dollar. This
created an unheard of appreciation of 9.3 per cent.
Germany floated the DEM against the dollar without the union of
the other European nations.
An unexpected oil crisis crippled European currencies even more.
The United States then abandoned the ‘gold standard’ while still
paying off her debts to the nations of Europe. France, Denmark,
Ireland, and Norway floated their currencies…. Creating what has
been termed in economic history as the “Snake in the Tunnel”.
America agreed to stabilize her exchange rates to 2.25%. France
and Italy moved in and out of the currency float several times
causing yo-yo monetary valuation and uncertainty.
Weaker countries like Greece, found their currencies depleted as
a consequence of floating the currencies.
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Finally the United States of America refused to return to the
gold standard. The “Snake” was then “in the Lake”.
The United States of America refused to pay her debt obligations
in gold.
The Bretton Woods System finally failed in 1973, as a result.
Germany stepped in as the anchor currency in Europe. The CMUE(The
Committee of the Monetary Union in Europe), the AMUE(The
Association of the Monetary Union in Europe), the Giscard-Schmidt
Committee, The SEA and a host of other forums were held between
the 1970’s and the 1990’s. The right to monetary order, exchange
rate stabilization, and monetary integration; with institutional
backup, were the focus of all of these forums.
Opposition by certain nations included the belief that nations
whom had weak economies (i.e. Greece) would take advantage of
nations whom had stable and strong economies (i.e. Germany).
There was another unexpected oil crisis, and the Berlin Wall
fell. A unified currency would not be put into use until after
the signing of The Treaty of Maastricht on February 7, 1992. By
Page 17 of 34
1992 deregulation and supply side reform was in place. All non-
tariff barriers in Europe were abolished.
Page 18 of 34
The modern day European Union arose after the signing of The
Treaty of Maastricht on European Union.
The Council of Europe predates The European Union. Yet, the
European Union’s mission is to continue prosperity, freedom,
communication, and ease of travel and commerce for its citizens.
The five goals of the Treaty are:
1. To strengthen the democratic governing of participating
nations.
2. To improve the efficiency of nations
3. To establish an economic and financial unification
4. To develop the community social dimension and
5. To establish a security policy for involved nations.
The Treaty continues; to include issues of education, industry,
and youth. It established fiscal unification by activating the
use of the Euro, as a single and common currency. There have,
however; been amendments to the Maastricht Treaty such as the
Amsterdam, The Nice, and the Lisbon amendments. We see through
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these deliberate steps to maintain and protect national borders
and trade that the nations of Europe are committed to its
unification.
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The former currency of Greece is the Drachma. The Drachma emerged
around 670 B.C. It was outlawed by the Roman King Denarius, and
restored in 1833. The Drachma was sentenced to discontinuation,
again after the Treaty of Maastricht in 1997. The Drachma had
been in use for 2,671 years. Greece is characterized throughout
history as being composed of fiercely independent Polis or City
States whom all used a different currency, with representations
of rulers’ placed prominently on the surface of currency. The
Greek monetary system was characterized by 1 talent = 60 Mnas; 1
Mna = 100 Drachmas; 1 Drachma = 60 Obls ($40 US dollars today). 6
Obls could fit into the human hand; Therefore the term Drachma
means the “graspable”. This standard stood from 500 – 38 B.C.
After 160 B.C Greeks traded in the money of which ever nation
ruled them at the time. The Ottoman Empire had been the major
ruler for most of Greece’s history. In 1827 A.D the Modern Greek
nation was constructed. In 1868 Greece joined the Latin monetary
union, making the Drachma equal to 1 French Franc. Greece became
Bankrupt in 1893. Financial specialist in England, Europe helped
to continue the valuation of the Drachma. The Latin Monetary
Union became extinct in 1922 after WWI. The Grecian Monarchy was
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restored in 1935. Yet again, after WWII the Drachma was struck
with inflation. In 1941 1 British Pound was worth 1,200 Drachma.
Currency and financial scholars helped to introduce a more
valuable Drachma. However inflation still consumed Greece. Greece
then joined the Bretton Woods System in 1953 to stave off its
currencies inflation. 30 Drachma then = $US 1. Under Bretton
Woods in the 60’s and the 70’s; Greece was inflation free. The
Bretton Woods System fell in 1973. The Greek Drachma’s official
exchange rate plummeted, with 400 Drachma = $US 1.
Greece suffered continuous inflation until 1997. Having entered
the European Union in 1985, Greece adapted use of the Euro in
2002.
Greece has a population of 11.6 million people. The nation is
located in south east Europe, and forms the southern extremity of
the Balkan Peninsula. The nation consists of 2,000 islands in the
Ionian and Aegean Seas. Greece is considered by most the cradle
of European civilization. Grecian scholars made prominent
advancements in medicine, philosophy, art and the sciences. They
were pioneers in structuring democratic government.
Page 25 of 34
“Modern day Greece has a republican structure based on a 1975
constitution. There is a single chamber parliament with 300
members. The country is divided into 13 administrative regions.
Half of all Greek industry is located in the capital city of
Athens” (European Commission). The main economic contributors are
agriculture, tourism, construction, and shipping. Greece has of
course experienced inflation in its past. The main problem in
Greece today is her chronic inability to compete on the world’s
open market. Greece adapted to the use of the Euro in 2001. It
is still an unknown fact in regards to rather or not, the country
will continue using the Euro. Skeptics predict that Greece may
resort back to her own monetary standard. Greece has been in an
economic recession for five years at this point. By November of
2011 Greek banking system had “lost” a quarter of all of its
deposits, which had been secured two years earlier. The banks
then borrowed 43 million Euros from the Greek Central Bank. They
then borrowed another 73 billion Euros worth of secured loans
from the European Central Bank. It has become difficult for
Greece to borrow any more money from banks outside of Greece.
Banks have cut loans to the country and raised borrowing cost.
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Foreign suppliers demand cash payment upfront when doing business
with businesses native to the nation. Some of those businesses
have relocated their physical location and bank affiliations to
Great Britain in an effort to avoid the negative connotation of
being a Greek company. They use instead the Bank of London to
complete transactions.
Investors are avoiding the nation and the stock market in Greece
has fallen. Capital spending is down more than half since four
years ago. Construction and home building has fallen by 2/3rds.
The Gross Domestic Product fell by 6% in 2011 alone. There is
again a shortage of liquidity. Unemployment and joblessness has
risen to 18%. Greece has had two devaluations since joining the
European Union. Those devaluations were not of much help to the
nation. Inflation has over taken the nation, as it has done,
again and again in the nation’s history. The International
Monetary Fund has not made a decision on Greek finances and the
modern world waits to see the outcome of the current financial
devastation facing the nation of Greece. The hope is that private
sector creditors will accept a bond exchange deal. The European
Central bank has purchased 40 billion euro worth of GrecianPage 27 of 34
bonds, at a discount to their face value. This is a part of the
ECB’s plan to stabilize bond markets.
Greece's economic problems
The Greek government has raised VAT or taxes from 11% to 23%.
Business owners, however seem to be avoiding the tax increases
altogether. They will not charge or pay, higher tax. When the
government instituted a car tax citizens of the nation, handed in
their licenses plates.
Often nations with weak or unstable balance sheets, borrow
internationally in their own currency. This may lead them into
debt and financial crisis.
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Factors that lead to financial crisis are the Imbalances in
National balance sheets. Mismatches in maturity, currency, and
capital structure are other contributing factors. Those mismatch
in currency, capital status and maturity, places extraordinary
emphasis on a nation’s capital accounts. “Large external
financing gaps emerge due to unparalleled reversals of capital”
(Chu and Gai)
When capital value is reversed foreign investors, decide to
withdraw funding from these financially weak nations. “When many
or all foreign investors withdraw their funding from a nation;
within the same time frame, it is much like a run by depositors
on a bank. Once other investors hear that foreign investors are
pulling capital out of a nation they also pull their investment
capital out of that nation. At this point a nation realizes that
most of its debt is in the form of public liabilities, or private
sector liabilities guaranteed by governments. Banking sector
problems are therefore created and sustained”(Quang vol. 42).
Exchange rate issues which arose as a consequence of capital
reversals become sovereign debt. Domestic policy adjustment on
behalf of the nation which experiences debt may reduce theirPage 29 of 34
current account deficit. This is a counterpart to private capital
outflows. The IMF could help by financing to reduce outstanding
debt. Yet, the integration of international capital markets has
diminished the ability of the IMF to address many effects of
financial crisis. There is always a limit to the power of an
indebted nation to attract, investment attention even after
making adjustments to their national policies. Private financers
want insurance on their lending and cannot collect upon debts
when, the debt is owed by a sovereign foreign nation. Private
investors may choose to reduce payments suspend payment on the
debts owed. By suspending or canceling debts owed private
investors are contributing to a nation’s inclination to develop
more debt. Nations who are freed from debt obligations may down
play the accumulation of future debt. The suspension of debt may
also reduce the need of the indebted nation to make any further
adjustments in their public policies. The creditor, in this case
experiences, discomfort; they have loaned monies which they will
not be paid back. Reform on the International Financial
Architecture is being discussed on national levels. A more
rational solution to address sovereign debt is needed. The United
Page 30 of 34
States of America has bankruptcy court. The European Union hasn’t
implemented any such program into their system as of yet. An
insolvency clause must be implemented as an amendment to The
Treaty of Maastricht. The amendment could include an automatic
restructuring of loans for nations whom have unresolved debt.
Some intellectuals believe that an officially sanctioned
temporary suspension on debt could be used to stop the need to
borrow. Greece is the issue today. Grecians are enduring massive
financial and policy instabilities. Citizens are rioting in the
streets offended by restrictions on long standing policies. Many
citizens are leaving to find work in other nations. We may notice
as a consequence Greek citizens, living more and more in other
European nations. Greeks future may become that of a desert
island which is only utilized during seasons of tourism. If it
lacked its beauty and holiday appeal we may have expected to see
tumble weed blowing through the deserted streets as they are
stripped of industry, commerce and human resources. However, the
unification of Europe has been long awaited. Americans of
European descent watch; engulfed in hope. Often the child desires
the unification of its parents. This European Union can work.
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This type of discomfort and economical shifting was always
expected. Therefor the Eurozone members are prepared to sustain
their commitment to unification; though the pains of growth may
be uncomfortable they are yet, for good cause; bearable.
Page 32 of 34
Bibliography
European Commission>Economic and Financial Affairs>The EU as a Borrower>Greek Loan Facility http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu_borrower/greek_loan
Economist the; Greece and the Euro: an economy crumbles Uncertainty about rather Greece will remain in the Euro is crippling its prospectswww.economist.com
Amadeo, Kimberly; what is the European Union? www.useconomy.com
Collignon Stephan, and Schwarzer Daniela 2002 Routedge Press; Private Sector Involvement in the Euro: The Power of Ideas www.questia.com
Chui Michael and Gai Prasanna; Oxford Press 2005, Private Sector Involvement and International Financial Crises an Analytical Perspective www.questia.com
Feinstein, Charles H; Banking Currency and Finance in Europe between the Wars; www.questia.com
Kitty, Ussher; 2012 New Statesman; why would the Greeks Leave the Euro? No one can make them www.questia.com
Greek Currency History of Drachma www.Fluer-de-coin.com
Quang, Minh; The Impact of Investment Climate Indicators on Gross Capital Formation in Developing Countries; The Journal of Developing Areas www.questia.com
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