Strong Growth Visibility

Cochin Shipyard Ltd. Initiating Coverage

Institutional Research BP Equities Pvt. Limited (www.bpwealth.com) 12/04/2018 2

B P W E A L T H

Table of Content

Summary on Business Profile & Explanation on why we like this company…………………...….…………......3-5

Investment Rationale……………………………………...…………………...…………………………………………...6-14

Largest Public Sector Shipyard with Various Capabilities .....………..…............……………………………..6-7

Ship repairs revenue to double going forward due to new capex and JV’s ......…………………………….....8

Strong Order Pipeline to support Revenues in coming years ………………………...…..….……….………….9

Financial performance to improve further……………………………………………………………………………10

Company Background ..……………………..…………………………………………….……………….…………….11-12

Key Milestone & Management Team …….……………………..….………………………...…….…….…......…….......13

Peer Comparison, Key Concerns & PE Band ………………………………………...….………...……………….…....14

Valuation & Outlook ……………………………………………………………………………………...…………..…....….15

Financial Statements…...……………………………………………………………………….....................................16-19

Disclaimer………………………………………………………………………………………………….....………...….……20

nd Feb , CY

Cochin Shipyard Ltd.

Share Holding Pattern (%)

Sector Outlook Positive

Stock

CMP (Rs) 518

Target Price (Rs) 662

BSE code 540678

NSE Symbol COCHINSHIP

Bloomberg COCHIN IN

Reuters COCH.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,394

52 Week H/L (Rs) 599/435

O/s Shares (Mn) 135.9

Market Cap (Bn) 71.9

Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 213,070

6 months 398,100

1 year 829,730

Relative Price Chart

Company Overview Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL) was incorporated on March 29, 1972, and was conferred the 'Category A Mini Ratna' status in 2008 by the Department of Public Enterprises, GoI. Its shipyard is strategically located along the West coast of India in Cochin, midway on the main sea route connecting Europe, West Asia and the Pacific rim—a busy international maritime route. In addition, the shipyard is located close to the Kochi port as well as to offshore oil fields on the western coast of India and relatively close to the Middle East. CSL is the largest public sector shipyard in India in terms of dock capacity to ac-commodate vessels upto 1,25,000 DWT in ship building business and 1,10,000 DWT in ship repair business. It caters to clients from the defense sector in India and commercial sector worldwide. In ad-dition to ship building and ship repair, the company also offers marine engineering training. Investment Rationale Largest Public Sector Shipyard with various capabilities CSL is the largest public sector shipyard in terms of dock capacity and caters to clients in the defense and commercial sector. CSL mainly operates in 2 business segments i.e. ship-building and ship-repairing. Ideally ship building for clients engaged in the defense sector is quite complex and time con-suming but non-cyclical in nature where as the contracts in the commercial sector are relatively less complex and but more of cyclical in nature. Coming to the ship repairs segment, CSL is the market leader with 39% market share and has also under various complex projects for repairing like INR Vikramaditya. Ship Building – Ship Building contributes to around 82% of the revenue share since the past 5 years and it caters to clients in the defense as well as commercial sector. CSL has built a wide range of ves-sels such as bulk carriers, tankers, platform supply vessels (PSV’s), Anchor Handling Tug Supply Ve-hicles (AHTSs), launch barges, tugs, passenger vessels, Fast Patrol Vessels (FPV) and Roll-on Roll-Off (Ro-Ro) Vessels. It has worked with various technology firms including Rolls Royce Marine (Norway) & GTT (South Africa) which helped improve its stability in the international markets.

Defense Ship Building – The Defense sector contributes 85% in the ship building segment where IAC-1 (Indian Aircraft Carrier) alone contributes to around 79% of the above. For IAC-1 the company has completed Phase 1 in 2014-15 and is currently executing Phase 2. Its two major clients in the defense space are Indian Navy and the Indian Coast Guard.

Commercial Ship Building – CSL is currently constructing 4 passenger cum-cargo vessels

for the Andaman and Nicobar Administration and a vessel for the GOI’s project. As of today it has delivered two of India’s largest double hull oil tanker to SCI. Apart from that the company has successfully exported 45 ships to various international clients like NPCC, Clipper Group (Bahamas), Vroon Offshore (Netherlands) and SIGBA AS (Norway).

Ship Repair – CSL started its operations in the ship repair business in the year 1978 and since then diversified into various forays like upgradation of vessels, periodical maintenance, life extension etc. CSL has repaired 15 naval ships from routine to complex solutions and it has also completed refits of INS Aditya, INS Viraat, INS Vikramaditya and others. It also has MoU’s with Lakshadweep Develop-ment Corporation Ltd. (LDCL), Directorate General of Lighthouses and Lightships (DGLL) and Dredg-ing Corporation of India (DGI) to undertake ship repair work on bulk-volume basis. Ship repairs revenue to double going forward due to new capex and JV’s CSL as of today is the only shipyard which is equipped with the capabilities to repair INS Viraat and INS Vikramaditya. The ship repairs revenue are expected to double in the coming 5 years due to ex-pansion of facilities and the recent JV’s that will help CSL to improve its operating margins. Currently the EBIT margins in the ship repairs segment are around 25-27%. CSL has planned Capex of Rs.27.7Bn between FY18-FY22 for 2 new facilities mainly ISRF & Dry Dock which will be operational in FY22. ISRF Facility – This facility being built at Cochin port would be state of art ship repair facility which will enable CSL to position itself as a major ship repair hub. This will enhance ship-repair capability by 70-90 ships per annum, almost doubling its operational capacity, enabling repair of a broader range of vessels like rigs, within the shipyard. Ship Repair business is a high margin business with EBIT mar-gins as high as ~25%. It has also entered into MoU’s to expand ship repair facilities with Mumbai Port Trust (Capex ~600-800Mn), Kolkata Port Trust (Capex ~200Mn) & Andaman Port (with Nil capex in collaboration with Ministry of Home-Andaman). This would improve sustainable revenue for the com-pany.

Shipping | Initiating Coverage 12th April 2017

Buy

BUY HOLD SELL

> 15% -5% to 15% < -5%

Stock Rating

Research Analyst Harshil Shethia

[email protected]

022-61596408

Bhavya Sanghvi [email protected]

022-61596408

B P W E A L T H

75.0%

3.5%11.1%

10.4%

Promoter FII DII Others

400

450

500

550

600

650

Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18

Cochin Shipyard Nifty



B P W E A L T H

Stepped Dry Dock – Currently CSL operates largest public sector dock with a capacity of 125,000 DWT with a dimensions of 270 x 45 x 12M. New 'Stepped' Dry Dock have proposed dimensions of 310 x 75/60 x 13M, which will undertake repairs of bigger vessels like LNG carriers, semi-submersibles, jack up rigs, and drill ships. JV’s - CSL has signed a MOU with Mumbai port trust to service Navy ships, whereby management expects to reap revenue of Rs.1.7Bn between FY19-20 & Rs.2Bn from FY20 onwards. CSL has entered into JV with Hooghly Dock & Port Engineering Limited called Hooghly Cochin Shipyard Limited (HCSL). Management expects new JV operations to start contributing revenues to the tune of Rs.2Bn, from H2FY20 onwards. CSL is also into advanced stage talks in bagging Ship Repair business from Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island). The repair ecosystem at Port Blair is being viewed with nil invest-ment by CSL, more from an operational and maintenance point of view, since investment is expected to be made by Ministry of Home (Andaman). Strong order pipeline to support Revenue in coming years CSL has a robust order book of Rs.187.4Bn as on December 2017. Of which Ship Repair segment comprises orders worth Rs.3.5Bn & Ship Building segment’ contribution is Rs.183.87Bn. This translates to 9.1x of Revenue (FY17) which assures long term revenue visibility for CSL. In addition to the current order book, CSL has opportunities of new vessels in terms of Cement carriers, well simulation vessel (ONGC), Polar Research Vessels, Fishing boats & 250 small vessels from coast guard and these are expected to be finalized within the next 2-3 years, considering CSL’s ship building track record & exper-tise. We also believe that the management will bid aggressively for these orders given its strong posi-tion. Financial Highlights During the turbulent times in the global ship building industry, the company has delivered 7.8% and 13.3% CAGR growth in the topline and the bottom-line respectively from FY13 to FY17 beating the cy-clical industry. Going ahead, The Company is set to deliver a 20.3% CAGR in the topline of the compa-ny from FY17 – 21E due to a robust order book which will further lead to its EBITDA margin expansions from 18.5% in FY17 to 24.1% in FY21E. We also expect the Gross Margins to decrease a bit due to competitive bidding on contracts like ASW Corvettes. But we expect the PAT Margins to remain flattish due to heavy capex plans by the company in the new facilities. With the completion of new facilities increased bidding for other projects, we expect the company's revenue to grow in both the segments. On the cost front CSL can execute projects efficiently due to its prudent model of subcontracting where majority of its work force is on contract basis and the employee cost for the company was just 11% to its FY17 revenues being the lowest in the industry. CSL enjoys a strong balance sheet with Debt to Equity ratio being almost negligible since the past decade. The company has reduced its Working Capital Days from 199 days in FY13 to 72 days in FY17 since its receivables days came down to almost 1/3 rd and we further expect the company to yet strengthen its position by bringing down its working capital cycle to around 69 days because contracts like IAC and ASW-SWC assures advance payments for execution and procurement of materials. CSL is also a cash rich company having approximately of Rs. 3,013 crores in FY18E which is around 40% to its current Market Cap and going ahead despite its capex plans we expect CSL to maintain a cash balance of Rs. 2,800 crores in FY21E. As for the return ratios, the ROE and RoCE have remained highly stable from FY12-17 and we further expect a dip in the ratios from FY17 to FY20E because of an increase in the equity base and on account of capex gestation, however going ahead, by FY21E we expect it to reach to its previous levels of 16% and 18% respec-tively. Valuation & Outlook Despite the global slowdown in the commercial ship building industry CSL has delivered a topline and EBITDA CAGR of 7.3% and 14.4% respectively between FY13-17. CSL is by far the most efficient ship yard company among its public sector peers. Its strategy to expand its capacities over the 5 year period in its high margin ship repair business should yield more benefits. The company also provides adequate revenue visibility with an order book of Rs. 187.4 billion. CSL also does not face much of a competition from its private players due to its differing operational capabilities since it is the only shipyard in India that has the capability to undertake and construct big size orders like IAC – II and LNG tankers. On the financial front, CSL is a cash rich company with negligible debt in the books of the company. At the cur-rent market price of Rs. 518, CSL is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x and 7.0x for FY19E and FY20E respectively. We believe that CSL is trading at a discount compared to its global and Indian peers and thus we assign an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x to it FY20E EBITDA and come with a target price of Rs. 662.

We have valued this stock by assigning an EV/EBITDA mul-tiple of 10x to its FY20 esti-mates. We arrive at a target price of Rs 662(potential up-side of 27.9% from CMP) for an investment horizon of 15-

18 months.



B P W E A L T H

Source: Company, BP Equities Research


Key Financials

YE March (Rs. mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

Revenue 15,542 16,527 18,595 19,935 20,589 22,700 27,235 32,800 43,100

Revenue Growth (Y-oY) 9.7% 6.3% 12.5% 7.2% 3.3% 10.3% 20.0% 20.4% 31.4%

EBIDTA 2,224 2,612 3,314 3,555 3,811 4,150 5,307 6,443 10,378

EBIDTA Growth (Y-o-Y) 7.2% 17.4% 26.9% 7.3% 7.2% 8.9% 27.9% 21.4% 61.1%

Net Profit 1,853 1,942 2,351 2,727 3,221 3,604 4,173 4,687 6,665

Net Profit Growth (Y-o-Y) 7.5% 4.8% 21.0% 16.0% 18.1% 11.9% 15.8% 12.3% 42.2%

Diluted EPS 16.4 17.1 20.8 24.1 28.4 26.5 30.7 34.5 49.0

Diluted EPS Growth (Y-o-Y) 44.7% 4.8% 21.0% 16.0% 18.1% -6.8% 15.8% 12.3% 42.2%

No of Diluted shares (mn) 1,133 1,133 1,133 1,133 1,133 1,359 1,359 1,359 1,359

Key Ratios

EBIDTA (%) 14.3% 15.8% 17.8% 17.8% 18.5% 18.3% 19.5% 19.6% 24.1%

NPM (%) 11.9% 11.8% 12.6% 13.7% 15.6% 15.9% 15.3% 14.3% 15.5%

RoE (%) 16.6% 15.4% 16.1% 16.2% 16.8% 13.3% 11.7% 11.7% 14.5%

RoCE (%) 19.4% 17.3% 18.1% 19.2% 18.1% 13.6% 12.5% 13.0% 17.9%

Tax Rate % 32.8% 33.2% 36.0% 35.0% 34.8% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%

Book Value Per share (Rs.) 103.8 119.4 137.8 160.2 179.3 247.9 278.6 313.1 362.1

Valuation Ratios

P/E (x) 31.7x 30.2x 25.0x 21.5x 18.2x 19.5x 16.9x 15.0x 10.6x

EV/EBITDA 23.2x 21.6x 13.8x 11.7x 10.5x 10.0x 8.0x 7.0x 4.2x

P/BV (x) 5.0x 4.3x 3.8x 3.2x 2.9x 2.1x 1.9x 1.7x 1.4x

Market Cap. / Sales (x) 3.8x 3.6x 3.2x 2.9x 2.9x 3.1x 2.6x 2.1x 1.6x

Valuation Ratios

YE March (Rs. mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

P/E (x) 31.7x 30.2x 25.0x 21.5x 18.2x 19.5x 16.9x 15.0x 10.6x

P/BV (x) 5.0x 4.3x 3.8x 3.2x 2.9x 2.1x 1.9x 1.7x 1.4x

EV/EBIDTA (x) 23.2x 21.6x 13.8x 11.7x 10.5x 10.0x 8.0x 7.0x 4.2x

EV/Sales 3.3x 3.4x 2.5x 2.1x 1.9x 1.8x 1.6x 1.4x 1.0x

Market Cap./ Sales (x) 3.8x 3.6x 3.2x 2.9x 2.9x 3.1x 2.6x 2.1x 1.6x

Dividend Yield (%) 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



B P W E A L T H

Investment Rationale

Largest Public Sector Shipyard with various capabilities

CSL is the largest public sector shipyard in terms of dock capacity and caters to clients in the defense and commercial sector. CSL mainly operates in 2 business segments i.e. ship-building and ship-

repairing. Ideally ship building for clients engaged in the defense sector is quite complex and time con-suming but non-cyclical in nature where as the contracts in the commercial sector are relatively less complex and but more of cyclical in nature. Coming to the ship repairs segment, CSL is the market leader with 39% market share and has also under various complex projects for repairing like INR Vikramaditya.


Segment-wise Breakup of Revenue as of FY17

74%

26%

Shipbuilding (%) Ship repair (%)

90%

10%

Defence Sector Clients (%) Commercial Clients (%)

Client-wise Breakup of Revenue as of FY17


Client-wise Ship Building Revenue Breakup

13,641

16,20815,137

1,978

3,640

5,437

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

FY15 FY16 FY17

Shipbuilding (Rs Mn) Ship repair (Rs Mn)



B P W E A L T H

Ship Building – Ship Building contributes to around 82% of the revenue share since the past 5 years and it caters to clients in the defense as well as commercial sector. CSL has built a wide range of ves-sels such as bulk carriers, tankers, platform supply vessels (PSV’s), Anchor Handling Tug Supply Vehi-cles (AHTSs), launch barges, tugs, passenger vessels, Fast Patrol Vessels (FPV) and Roll-on Roll-Off (Ro-Ro) Vessels. It has worked with various technology firms including Rolls Royce Marine (Norway) & GTT (South Africa) which helped improve its stability in the international markets. Defense Ship Building – The Defense sector contributes 85% in the ship building segment where

IAC-1 alone contributes to around 79% of the above. For IAC-1 the company has completed Phase 1 in 2014-15 and is currently executing Phase 2. Its two major clients in the defense space are Indi-an Navy and the Indian Coast Guard.

Commercial Ship Building – CSL is currently constructing 4 passenger cum-cargo vessels for the

Andaman and Nicobar Administration and a vessel for the GOI’s project. As of today it has delivered two of India’s largest double hull oil tanker to SCI. Apart from that the company has successfully exported 45 ships to various international clients like NPCC, Clipper Group (Bahamas), Vroon Off-shore (Netherlands) and SIGBA AS (Norway).

Ship Repair – CSL started its operations in the ship repair business in the year 1978 and since then diversified into various forays like upgradation of vessels, periodical maintenance, life extension etc. CSL has repaired 15 naval ships from routine to complex solutions and it has also completed refits of INS Aditya, INS Viraat, INS Vikramaditya and others. It also has MoU’s with Lakshadweep Development Cor-poration Ltd. (LDCL), Directorate General of Lighthouses and Lightships (DGLL) and Dredging Corpora-tion of India (DGI) to undertake ship repair work on bulk - volume basis.


Client-wise Ship Building Revenue Breakup

12,309 15,029 13,626

1,332 1,179 1,511

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2016 2017

Defence Sector Clients (Rs Mn) Commercial Clients (Rs Mn)

538

2,8183,789

1,440

8221,648

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

FY15 FY16 FY17

Defence Sector Clients (Rs Mn) Commercial Clients (Rs Mn)

Client-wise Ship repair breakup




B P W E A L T H

Ship repairs revenue to double going forward due to new capex and JV’s

CSL as of today is the only shipyard which is equipped with the capabilities to repair INS Viraat and INS Vikramaditya. The ship repairs revenue are expected to double in the coming 5 years due to ex-pansion of facilities and the recent JV’s that will help CSL to improve its operating margins. Currently the EBIT margins in the ship repairs segment are around 25-27%. CSL has planned Capex of Rs.27.7Bn between FY18-FY22 for 2 new facilities mainly ISRF & Dry Dock which will be operational in FY22.

ISRF Facility – This facility being built at Cochin port would be state of art ship repair facility which will enable CSL to position itself as a major ship repair hub. This will enhance ship-repair capability by 70-

90 ships per annum, almost doubling its operational capacity, enabling repair of a broader range of vessels like rigs, within the shipyard. Ship Repair business is a high margin business with EBIT mar-gins as high as ~25%.

Stepped Dry Dock – Currently CSL operates largest public sector dock with a capacity of 125,000 DWT with a dimensions of 270 x 45 x 12M. New 'Stepped' Dry Dock have proposed dimensions of 310 x 75/60 x 13M, which will undertake repairs of bigger vessels like LNG carriers, semi-submersibles, jack up rigs, and drill ships.

JV’s - CSL has signed a MOU with Mumbai port trust to service Navy ships, whereby management expects to reap revenue of Rs.1.7Bn between FY19-20 & Rs.2Bn from FY20 onwards. CSL has en-tered into JV with Hooghly Dock & Port Engineering Limited called Hooghly Cochin Shipyard Limited (HCSL). Management expects new JV operations to start contributing revenues to the tune of Rs.2Bn, from H2FY20 onwards. CSL is also into advanced stage talks in bagging Ship Repair business from Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island). The repair ecosystem at Port Blair is being viewed with nil in-vestment by CSL, more from an operational and maintenance point of view, since investment is ex-pected to be made by Ministry of Home (Andaman).


Capex Outlay (Rs Bn) International ship repairing facility (ISRF) 9.7

'Stepped' Dry Dock 18.0

Total 27.7

Phases of Capex Total FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E

International ship repairing facility (ISRF) 9700 1650 2600 3000 1800 650

'Stepped' Dry Dock 18000 1,050 2,350 5,500 6,500 2,600

Total 27700 2,700 4,950 8,500 8,300 3,250



B P W E A L T H

Strong order pipeline to support Revenue in coming years

CSL has a robust order book of Rs.187.4Bn as on December 2017. Of which Ship Repair segment

comprises orders worth Rs.3.5Bn & Ship Building segment’ contribution is Rs.183.87Bn. This trans-

lates to 9.1x of Revenue (FY17) which assures long term revenue visibility for CSL.

In addition to the current order book, CSL has opportunities of new vessels in terms of Cement carri-

ers, well simulation vessel (ONGC), Polar Research Vessels, Fishing boats & 250 small vessels from

coast guard and these are expected to be finalised within the next 2-3 years, considering CSL’s ship

building track record & expertise. We also believe that the management will bid aggressively for these

orders given its strong position.


Order Book

Particulars Order Amt. % (Rs. In Billions)

L1 Status Order

56 small boats - ASW vessels 3.8 2.0%

8 corvettes - ASW vessels 54.0 28.8%

Phase II of IAC 8.9 4.7%

Phase III of IAC

Fixed price Rs.30Bn (To be awarded in FY 19) 102.7 54.8%

Cost plus Rs.72.7Bn

Technology Demonstration Vessel 2.2 1.2%

500 Pax cum 1500 Ton Cargo Vessel A&N Administration 12.3 6.6% 1200 Pax cum 1000 Ton Cargo Vessel A&N Administration

Ship Repair 3.5 1.9%

Total Order Book 187.4 100%

125 113 125

161145

164

6.27

5.49 5.515.92

4.433.81

0

2

4

6

8

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

FY16 FY17 FY 18E FY 19E FY 20E FY 21E

Order Back log (Rs Bn) Book to Bill (x)

Book to Bill




B P W E A L T H

Financial performance to improve going further During the turbulent times in the global ship building industry, the company has delivered 7.8% and 13.3% CAGR growth in the topline and the bottom-line respectively from FY13 to FY17 beating the cyclical industry. Going ahead, The Company is set to deliver a 20.3% CAGR in the topline of the company from FY17 – 21E due to a robust order book which will further lead to its EBITDA margin expansions from 18.5% in FY17 to 24.1% in FY21E. Gross Margins are expected decrease a bit due to competitive bidding on contracts like ASW Corvettes. We further expect the PAT Margins to remain flattish due to heavy capex plans by the company in the new facilities. With the completion of new fa-cilities increased bidding for other projects, we expect the company's revenue to grow in both the seg-ments. On the cost front CSL can execute projects efficiently due to its prudent model of subcontract-ing where majority of its work force is on contract basis and the employee cost for the company was just 11% to its FY17 revenues being the lowest in the industry. CSL enjoys a strong balance sheet with Debt to Equity ratio being almost negligible since the past decade. The company has reduced its Working Capital Days from 199 days in FY13 to 72 days in FY17 since its receivables days came down to almost 1/3rd and we further expect the company to yet strengthen its position by bringing down its working capital cycle to around 69 days because contracts like IAC and ASW-SWC assures advance payments for execution and procurement of materials. CSL is also a cash rich company hav-ing approximately of Rs. 3,013 crores in FY18E which is around 40% to its current Market Cap and going ahead despite its capacity expansion plans we expect CSL to maintain a cash balance of Rs. 2,800 crores in FY21E. As for the return ratios, the ROE and RoCE have remained highly stable from FY12-17 and we further expect a dip in the ratios from FY17 to FY20E because of an increase in the equity base and on account of capex gestation, however going ahead, by FY21E we expect it to reach to its previous levels of 16% and 18% respectively.


Margins to improve further

Comfortable working capital cycle ( In days )


199

184

134

99

72 69 68 68 68

0

50

100

150

200

250

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

Debtors (Days) Creditors (Days) Inventory (Days) Working Capital (Days)

15.6 16.5 18.6 19.9 20.6 22.7 27.2 32.8 43.1

14.3%15.8%

17.8% 17.8% 18.5% 18.3%19.5% 19.6%

24.1%

11.9% 11.8% 12.6%13.7%

15.6% 15.9% 15.3%14.3%

15.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

Revenue (Rs Bn) EBITDA (%) PAT (%)



B P W E A L T H

Company Background

Cochin Shipyard was incorporated in the year 1972 as a fully owned Government of India company. In the last three decades the company has emerged as a forerunner in the Indian Shipbuilding & Ship repair industry. This yard can build and repair the largest vessels in India. It can build ships upto 1,10,000 DWT and repair ships upto 1,25,000 DWT. CSL has secured shipbuilding orders from inter-nationally renowned companies from Europe & Middle East and is nominated to build the country’s first indigenous Air Craft Carrier. Cochin Shipyard commenced ship repair operations in the year 1982 and has undertaken repairs of all types of ships including upgradation of ships of oil exploration indus-try as well as periodical lay up repairs and life extension of ships of Navy, UTL, Coast Guard, Fisheries and Port Trust besides merchant ships of SCI & ONGC. The yard has, over the years, developed ca-pabilities to handle complex and sophisticated repair jobs. The Shipyard also trains graduate engi-neers to marine engineers who later join India or foreign ships as 5th Engineers. 100 such trainees are trained every year.

India’s 2nd Largest Shipyard, Largest in Public Sector for ship-building


400

11080 70

5030 20 15 10

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

RNEL CSL HSL BDIL SKL L&T ABG AAL GSL

Ship Building Capacity in DWT ('000's)

360

270

155

220

150

125 120

6345

25 3222 22 17

012 6

18 9 5 5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

RNEL CSL BDIL HSL ABG GSL GRSE

Second Largest Ship Repair Capacity - Dimensions in Mtrs.




B P W E A L T H


Financial Highlights

Revenue (Rs in mn) EBITDA (Rs in mn) and Margin %

PAT (Rs in mn) and Margin %


ROE and ROCE trend

1,853 1,942 2,351 2,727 3,221

11.9% 11.8%12.6%

13.7%

15.6%

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

20.0%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

PAT (Rs. Mn) PAT Margin (%)

2,224

2,612

3,314 3,555

3,811

14.3%

15.8%

17.8% 17.8%18.5%

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

20.0%

0

900

1,800

2,700

3,600

4,500


EBITDA (Rs. Mn) EBITDA Margin (%)

1557916527

1859519935 20589

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000


Revenue (Rs Mn)

19.4%

17.3%18.1%

19.2%18.1%

16.6%15.4% 16.1% 16.2% 16.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%


ROCE (%) ROE (%)



B P W E A L T H


Source: Company Presentation

Key Milestones

1972 Laid foundation for hull shop

1975 Signed contract for the first bulk carrier

1981 Delivered first ship ‘Rani Padmini’

1990 Delivery first tanker ‘007 Motilal Nehru’

1999 Delivered the Double Hull Motor Tanker ‘M.T. Abul Kalam Azad’ of 83576 DWT to Shipping Corporation of India

2003 Delivered first export order, LB II Barge to National Petroleum Construction Co, Abu Dhabi

2004 Contract for six bulk carriers for Clipper Group, Bahamas

2006 Delivered nine firefighting tugs to Saudi Seaport Authority from December 2004

2009 Keel laying of the first Indigenous Aircraft Carrier for the Indian Navy

2010 Order of 20 Fast Patrol Vessels for Indian Coast Guard

2011 Set up the 500 tn Bollard Pull facility at Vizhinjam, largest facility for bollard pull test in Asia

2012 Signed contract for setting up of ISRF at Cochin Port Trust

2013 Launched the first Indigenous Aircraft Carrier for the Indian Navy

2014 Delivered the 100th ship built by our Company

2015 Obtains license from GTT to build LNG Ships using the containment system known as the MarkIII Technology

2016 Delivered last ship of the 20 Fast Patrol Vessel to Indian Coast Guard

2017 17 Delivered double ended RoRo ferry ‘Sethusagar – I and II’ to Kochi Municipal Corporation

Cochin Shipyard Ltd. - Management Details

Name Designation Details

Mr. Madhu S Nair Chairman & Managing Director

Mr. Madhu S Nair, aged 52, charge as the Chairman & Managing Director of Cochin Shipyard Limited on 01 January 2016. He has a B.Tech degree in Naval Architecture and Ship building from Cochin University of Science & Technology. He was awarded a Masters degree in Engineering with specialization in Naval Architecture and Ocean En-gineering from Osaka University, Japan in 2002. He is experienced in all facets of ship-building and ship repair. He is trained in shipbuilding systems at IHI Shipyard at Kure, Japan and undergone JICA specialized training at Overseas Vocational Training Centre (OVTA), Tokyo and Osaka International Centre, Osaka, Japan.

Mr. D. Paul Ranjan Director (Finance) and Chief Financial Officer

Mr. D. Paul Ranjan, aged 57 years, is Director (Finance) and Chief Financial Officer of the Company from May 1, 2014. He was appointed to the position of Director (Finance) by the Ministry of Shipping through a selection process of Public Enterprise Selection Board. He holds a degree of bachelor of commerce from Madurai Kamaraj University. He is a chartered accountant and has completed a post qualification course in infor-mation systems audit from the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India. He has ap-proximately 32 years of work experience with the Company.

Mr. Suresh Babu N. V Director (Operations)

Mr. Suresh Babu N. V, aged 56 years, is Director (Operations) of the Company from April 26, 2016. He was appointed to aforsaid position by the Ministry of Shipping through a selection process of Public Enterprise Selection Board. He holds a degree of bachelor of engineering (mechanical) from the University of Kerala. He holds a diploma in management from Indira Gandhi National Open University. He has completed one year group training course in shipbuilding, repairing and maintenance conducted by Overseas Shipbuilding Cooperation Centre under International Cooperation Programme of the Government of Japan under Colombo Plan.



B P W E A L T H

Source: BP Equities Research, Ace Equity … (*) - Numbers are as of March 16

Peer Group Comparision

35295

20589

10555

5848 5633

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

MD

SL

CS

L

GS

L

HS

L*

RN

EL

Revenue (Rs Mn.)

8996

3811

2170

-238

733

25%

19%21%

-4%

13%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

MDSL CSL GSL HSL* RNEL

EBITDA (Rs. Mn.) EBITDA (%)

5335

3221

1182 190

-5773

15% 16%11%

3%

-102%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

MDSL CSL GSL HSL* RNEL

PAT (Rs. Mn.) PAT (%)

Key Risks and concerns

Delay in execution of projects will lead to a major hit

in the topline of the company.

Increased competition due to opening up of defense

ship building to private sector.

Commercial ship building industry is highly cyclical

in nature.



B P W E A L T H

Valuation and Outlook Despite the global slowdown in the commercial ship building industry CSL has delivered a topline and EBITDA CAGR of 7.3% and 14.4% respectively form FY13-17. CSL is by far the most efficient ship yard company among its public sector peers. Its strategy to expand its capacities over the 5 year peri-od in its high margin business of ship repair business should yield more benefits. The company also provides adequate revenue visibility with an order book of Rs. 187.4 billion. CSL also does not face much of a competition from its private players due to its differing operational capabilities since it is the only shipyard in India that has the capability to undertake and construct big size orders like IAC – II and LNG tankers. On the financial front, CSL is a cash rich company with negligible debt in the books of the company. At the current market price of Rs. 518, CSL is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x and 7.0x for FY19E and FY20E respectively. We believe that CSL is trading at a discount com-pared to its global and Indian peers and thus we assign an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x to it FY20E EBITDA and come with a target price of Rs. 662.

We have valued this stock by assigning an EV/EBITDA multi-ple of 10x to its FY20 esti-mates. We arrive at a target price of Rs 662(potential up-side of 27.9% from CMP) for an investment horizon of 15-18 months.


EV/EBITDA

Cochin Shipyard Ltd.

CMP (Rs.) 518

No. of shares (In Mn.) 136

Mcap (Rs. Mn.) 70,415

Assigned Multiple (x) 10

EBITDA FY20 (Rs. Mn.) 6,443

EV Derived (Rs. Mn.) 64,432

Debt (Rs. Mn.) 1,230

Cash (Rs. Mn.) 26,831

Mcap (Rs. Mn.) 90,034

Tgt Price (Rs.) 662

Upside (%) 27.9%



B P W E A L T H



Profit & Loss A/c

YE March (Rs. mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E Revenues 18,595 19,935 20,589 22,700 27,235 32,800 43,100 Growth % 12.5% 7.2% 3.3% 10.3% 20.0% 20.4% 31.4%

Other Operating Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Operating Revenue 18,595 19,935 20,589 22,700 27,235 32,800 43,100 Growth % 12.5% 7.2% 3.3% 10.3% 20.0% 20.4% 31.4%

Less:

Raw Material Consumed 9,816 10,379 9,948 10,896 13,481 17,056 22,412 Power & Fuel Cost 246 278 285 293 305 317 330 Employee Cost 2,367 2,267 2,167 2,557 2,812 3,094 3,403 Operating Expenses 1,860 2,472 3,687 4,055 4,461 4,907 5,398 General and Administration Expenses 392 372 367 386 405 425 446 Selling and Distribution Expenses 43 37 32 45 54 66 86 Miscellaneous Expenses 558 575 293 318 409 492 647 Total Operating Expenditure 15,282 16,380 16,778 18,550 21,928 26,357 32,722 EBIDTA 3,314 3,555 3,811 4,150 5,307 6,443 10,378 Growth % 26.9% 7.3% 7.2% 8.9% 27.9% 21.4% 61.1%

Less: Depreciation 383 372 385 406 747 1,152 2,064 EBIT 2,930 3,183 3,426 3,744 4,561 5,292 8,315 Growth % 24.8% 8.6% 7.6% 9.3% 21.8% 16.0% 57.1%

Interest Paid 189 125 122 129 129 129 129 Non-operating Income 935 1,139 1,636 1,930 1,988 2,048 2,068 Extraordinary Items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Profit Before tax 3,676 4,197 4,940 5,545 6,420 7,210 10,254 Tax 1,325 1,470 1,719 1,941 2,247 2,524 3,589 Net Profit before Minority 2,351 2,727 3,221 3,604 4,173 4,687 6,665 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Profit 2,351 2,727 3,221 3,604 4,173 4,687 6,665 Adjusted Profit 2,351 2,727 3,221 3,604 4,173 4,687 6,665 Reported Diluted EPS Rs 20.8 24.1 28.4 26.5 30.7 34.5 49.0 Growth % 21.0% 16.0% 18.1% -6.8% 15.8% 12.3% 42.2%

Adjusted Diluted EPS Rs 20.8 24.1 28.4 26.5 30.7 34.5 49.0 Growth % 21.0% 16.0% 18.1% -6.8% 15.8% 12.3% 42.2%

Common Sized Profit & Loss Account YE March (Rs. mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E Total Revenues 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Less:

Raw Material Consumed 52.8% 52.1% 48.3% 48.0% 49.5% 52.0% 52.0%

Power & Fuel Cost 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8%

Employee Cost 12.7% 11.4% 10.5% 11.3% 10.3% 9.4% 7.9%

Other Manufacturing Expenses 10.0% 12.4% 17.9% 17.9% 16.4% 15.0% 12.5%

General and Administration Expenses 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0%

Selling and Distribution Expenses 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Miscellaneous Expenses 3.0% 2.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Total Operating Expenditure 82.2% 82.2% 81.5% 81.7% 80.5% 80.4% 75.9%

EBIDTA 17.8% 17.8% 18.5% 18.3% 19.5% 19.6% 24.1%

Less: Depreciation 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 2.7% 3.5% 4.8%

EBIT 15.8% 16.0% 16.6% 16.5% 16.7% 16.1% 19.3%

Interest Paid 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%

Non-operating Income 5.0% 5.7% 7.9% 8.5% 7.3% 6.2% 4.8%

Extraordinary Items 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Profit Before tax 19.8% 21.1% 24.0% 24.4% 23.6% 22.0% 23.8%

Tax 7.1% 7.4% 8.3% 8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 8.3%

Net Profit before Minority 12.6% 13.7% 15.6% 15.9% 15.3% 14.3% 15.5%

Minority Interest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Net Profit 12.6% 13.7% 15.6% 15.9% 15.3% 14.3% 15.5%

Adjusted Profit 12.6% 13.7% 15.6% 15.9% 15.3% 14.3% 15.5%



B P W E A L T H


Cash Flows ( Consolidated)

YE March (Rs. Mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

PAT 2,350.7 2,726.9 3,221.5 3,604.2 4,172.7 4,686.6 6,664.9

Less: Non Operating Income (934.5) (1,139.2) (1,635.8) (1,930.2) (1,988.1) (2,047.7) (2,068.2)

Add: Depreciation 383.2 371.9 385.1 405.7 746.7 1,151.7 2,063.6

Add: Interest Paid 189.2 125.3 121.6 129.2 129.2 129.2 129.2

Operating Profit before Working Capital Changes 1,988.6 2,085.0 2,092.4 2,208.9 3,060.4 3,919.7 6,789.3

(Inc)/Dec in Current Assets 507.4 1,827.4 73.2 (1,008.0) (1,306.1) (1,755.4) (3,249.0)

Inc/(Dec) in Current Liabilities 7,054.7 768.2 (2,476.8) 761.1 2,220.9 2,931.9 5,301.0

Changes in Inventory 932.7 714.6 451.7 (125.4) (248.4) (457.4) (846.6)

Net Cash Generated From Operations 10,483.4 5,395.2 140.5 1,836.5 3,726.9 4,638.8 7,994.8

Cash Flow from Investing Activities

(Inc)/Dec in Fixed Assets (344.6) (253.4) (320.7) (3,200.0) (6,450.0) (9,000.0) (8,800.0)

(Inc)/Dec in Capital Work In Progress (52.1) (113.9) (297.5) 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0

(Inc)/Dec in Investment (Strategic) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

(Inc)/Dec in Investment (Others) (317.0) (1,639.2) 1,686.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Add: Non Operating Income Income 934.5 1,139.2 1,635.8 1,930.2 1,988.1 2,047.7 2,068.2

Net Cash Flow from/(used in) Investing Activities 665.5 (866.3) 2,703.7 (1,269.8) (4,461.7) (6,952.3) (6,731.8)

Cash Flow from Financing Activities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Inc/(Dec) in Total Loans (2,085.4) (153.3) 108.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Inc/(Dec) in Reserves & Surplus (60.8) (194.3) (1,053.7) 9,560.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

Inc/(Dec) in Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 226.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

Dividend Paid (169.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Less: Interest Paid (189.2) (125.3) (121.6) (129.2) (129.2) (129.2) (129.2)

Adjustments 21.1 (46.3) (68.3) (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 0.0

Net Cash Flow from Financing Activities (2,518.8) (519.2) (1,135.4) 9,658.2 (129.2) (129.2) (129.1)

Net Inc/Dec in cash equivalents 8,630.1 4,009.7 1,708.8 10,225.0 (863.9) (2,442.6) 1,133.9

Opening Balance 5,564.3 14,194.5 18,204.1 19,912.9 30,137.9 29,273.9 26,831.3

Closing Balance Cash and Cash Equivalents 14,194.5 18,204.1 19,912.9 30,137.9 29,273.9 26,831.3 27,965.2



B P W E A L T H


Balance Sheet ( Consolidated) YE March( Rs. mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E Liabilities

Equity Capital 1,133 1,133 1,133 1,359 1,359 1,359 1,359 Share application money pending allotment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves & Surplus 14,478 17,011 19,178 32,343 36,516 41,203 47,868 Equity 15,611 18,143 20,311 33,703 37,875 42,562 49,227 Preference Share Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Worth 15,611 18,143 20,311 33,703 37,875 42,562 49,227 Minority Interest

Net Deferred tax liability/(Asset) 42 (111) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) Total Loans 1,230 1,230 1,230 1,230 1,230 1,230 1,230 Capital Employed 16,883 19,262 21,538 34,930 39,102 43,789 50,454 Assets

Gross Block 6,368 6,622 6,943 10,143 16,593 25,593 34,393 Less: Depreciation 2,594 2,920 3,236 3,642 4,389 5,540 7,604 Net Block 3,774 3,702 3,706 6,500 12,204 20,052 26,789 Capital WIP 128 242 539 539 539 539 539 Long Term Loans & Advances 668 2,308 621 621 621 621 621 Non Current Investments 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Current Assets

Inventories 3,031 2,316 1,865 1,990 2,238 2,696 3,542 Sundry Debtors 5,851 4,547 3,070 4,042 4,701 5,661 7,439 Cash and Bank Balance 14,194 18,204 19,913 30,138 29,274 26,831 27,965 Loans and Advances 1,801 355 678 454 545 656 862 Other Current Assets 525 1,448 2,529 2,788 3,345 4,029 5,294 Total Current Assets 25,403 26,870 28,054 39,413 40,103 39,873 45,103 Less: Current Liabilities & Provisions

Sundry Creditors 1,719 2,099 1,613 1,423 1,502 1,805 2,241 Provisions 3,304 2,394 2,105 2,270 2,724 3,280 4,310 Other Current Liabilities 8,069 9,368 7,666 8,452 10,141 12,213 16,048 Total Current Liabilities & Provisions 13,092 13,861 11,384 12,145 14,366 17,298 22,599 Net Current Assets 12,310 13,010 16,670 27,268 25,737 22,576 22,504 Miscellaneous Assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital Applied 16,883 19,262 21,538 34,930 39,102 43,789 50,454



B P W E A L T H


Key Ratios ( Consolidated) YE March (Rs. mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E Key Operating Ratios

EBITDA Margin (%) 17.8% 17.8% 18.5% 18.3% 19.5% 19.6% 24.1%

Tax / PBT (%) 36.0% 35.0% 34.8% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%

Net Profit Margin (%) 12.6% 13.7% 15.6% 15.9% 15.3% 14.3% 15.5%

RoE (%) 16.1% 16.2% 16.8% 13.3% 11.7% 11.7% 14.5%

RoCE (%) 18.1% 19.2% 18.1% 13.6% 12.5% 13.0% 17.9%

Current Ratio (x) 1.9x 1.9x 2.5x 3.2x 2.8x 2.3x 2.0x

Dividend Payout (%) 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Book Value Per Share (Rs.) 137.8 160.2 179.3 247.9 278.6 313.1 362.1

Financial Leverage Ratios

Net Debt/ Equity (x) (0.8) (0.9) (0.9) (0.9) (0.7) (0.6) (0.5) Interest Coverage (x) 17.5x 28.4x 31.3x 32.1x 41.1x 49.9x 80.4x

Interest / Debt (%) 8.3% 10.2% 9.9% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%

Growth Indicators %

Growth in Gross Block (%) 5.7% 4.0% 4.8% 46.1% 63.6% 54.2% 34.4%

Sales Growth (%) 12.5% 7.2% 3.3% 10.3% 20.0% 20.4% 31.4%

EBITDA Growth (%) 26.9% 7.3% 7.2% 8.9% 27.9% 21.4% 61.1%

Net Profit Growth (%) 21.0% 16.0% 18.1% 11.9% 15.8% 12.3% 42.2%

Diluted EPS Growth (%) 21.0% 16.0% 18.1% (6.8%) 15.8% 12.3% 42.2%

Cash Flows

Cash Flow from Operations 10483.4 5395.2 140.5 1836.5 3726.9 4638.8 7994.8

Free Cash Flows 2375.0 2227.4 -295.6 -9703.4 83.7 83.9 83.9

Turnover Ratios

Debtors (Days of net sales) 109 95 68 65 63 63 63 Creditors (Days of Raw Materials) 34 38 29 28 25 25 25 Inventory (Days of Optg. Costs) 59 42 33 32 30 30 30

Research Desk Tel: +91 22 61596464

Disclaimer Appendix

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B P W E A LT H

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Strong Growth Visibility - Dalal Street Investment Journal

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