Segregation, Ethnic Labor Market and the Occupational

Expectations of Palestinian Students in Israel

Nabil Khattab

CCSR, Faculty of Economic and Social Studies

University of Manchester

&

Department of Sociology and Anthropology

The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

E-mail: nabil.khattab@stud.man.ac.uk

Tel: 0161 2754975

Fax: 0161 2754722

Paper for presentation at the spring of the RC28

Social Stratification and Mobility, Oxford 10-13 April, 2002

Please do not quote without permission from the author

2

Segregation, Ethnic Labor Market and the Occupational Expectations of

Palestinian Students in Israel

Abstract:

Using data from a large national representative survey of Palestinian high school students in

Israel, this study examines the effect of the local labor market and the internal ethnic/religious

segregation on students’ occupational expectations. The data, which have been collected in

spring 1997, consisted of two levels: the student level and the locality level. Multi-level analyses

reveal very large effects of the locality context on students’ occupational expectations.

Specifically, the study suggests that the internal segregation, measured by the percentage of

Muslims within the locality, has a negative influence on students’ occupational expectations

acting as a mechanism to preserve social inequality. The local labor market also seems to lower

students’ occupational expectations. However, those factors represent different processes that

taking place at the locality level. Those processes and their implications for sociological theories

of occupational expectations of minority students are discussed.

3

Segregation, Ethnic Labor Market and the Occupational Expectations of

Palestinian Students in Israel

Introduction

Occupational expectations of students are considered a critical intervening variable in the

determination of opportunities in the labor market. On the one hand, occupational expectations

tend to reflect one’s social class and the opportunity structure. Thus, students from ethnic

minorities and the working class are likely to develop low aspirations and expectations, while

students from privileged groups are more likely to have higher occupational expectations

(Ayalon and Yuchtman-Yaar. 1989). On the other hand, occupational expectations of students

are one of the most important early predictors of occupational attainment and the social mobility

of adults (Schneider and Stevenson 1999; Shu and Marini 1998). Thus, occupational

expectations in this sense, play an important role in the social reproduction process and in

maintaining social inequality (Ayalon and Yuchtman-Yaar. 1989; Hanson 1994).

However, recent studies have shown that some ethnic groups do not follow this “magic-circle” in

which minority students develop low aspirations and expectations that result in poor

socioeconomic outcomes (Dale, Shaheen, Kalra, and Fieldhouse 2001; Eisikovits 1997; Goyette

and Xie 1999; Kao and Tienda 1998; Morgan 1998; Sue and Okazaki 1990). According to these

studies, some minority students (e.g. Asian-American students and Pakistani students in the UK)

are likely to have high educational and occupational aspirations in spite of their social

disadvantages and despite experiencing occupational discrimination within the labor market. One

of the reasons suggested by the literature for the high aspirations and expectations of students

from ethnic minority groups is their segregation in schools (Kao and Tienda 1998) and/or their

residential (ethnic) segregation (Yogev and Ilan 1987). Ethnic segregation may result in ethnic

enclaves which, under certain conditions, develop ethnic labor markets (Wilson and Portes 1980)

in which minorities enhance their occupational opportunities and avoid discrimination and direct

competition with more dominant groups in the general labor market (Semyonov 1988). Students

from ethnic minorities who are residentially segregated usually attend segregated schools or

schools of high ethnic density (Rivkin 1994). Both educational and residential segregation exert

significant influences on the occupational expectations of minority students, which are very

important in determining future socioeconomic outcomes of adults (Hauser and Anderson 1991;

Sewell, Haller, and Ohlendorf 1970). This paper expands our knowledge of the role of the ethnic

4

enclave and the local labor market in facilitating or restricting students’ occupational

expectations. It focuses on the formation of occupational expectations of Palestinian-Arab

students in Israel. The Palestinian-Arab population is a particularly appropriate settings to

examine the relationship between segregation and occupational expectations of minority students

due to the highly residential and educational segregation from the Jewish majority.

Theoretical Considerations

Earlier studies about the formation of educational and occupational expectations have

exclusively used the status-attainment model, perhaps the most discussed research approach in this

domain (Hauser and Anderson 1991; Hauser, Tsai, and Sewell 1983; Sewell, Haller, and

Ohlendorf 1970; Sewell, Haller, and Portes 1969; Sewell and Shah 1968). Briefly, this model

postulates that students’ future expectations are strongly affected by their socio-economic

background and academic performance on the one hand, and the expectations and norms of

significant others with which they come in contact on the other. However, since the publication

of the basic papers on the status-attainment model (Sewell, Haller, and Ohlendorf 1970; Sewell,

Haller, and Portes 1969), the model has been challenged by the structural-rational approach. This

approach attempts to explain socio-economic and ethnic inequalities by the effects of structural

and social barriers resulting from a certain positions within a social structure (Sorensen 1996). In

societies stratified by ethnicity, different groups have different positions in the social structure.

Some of these positions are more advantaged than others, and the groups who occupy these

positions usually have higher levels of income and other socio-economic rewards than members

of subordinate ethnic groups (Ishida, Muller, and Ridge 1995). According to this approach,

members of these groups are aware of their position within the social structure and the

educational and occupational opportunities available for members of this position (Kerckhoff

1976). Thus, members of different strata have different expectations of their chances of success

based on their knowledge and awareness of the real world (Hanson 1994). This approach

therefore sees educational and occupational expectations as a realistic process in which

adolescents construct future expectations by rationally weighing them against the perceived

probability of their realisation (Gambetta 1996).

In their attempts to understand ethnic inequalities in educational attainment and the process by

which students develop educational and occupational expectations, a number of researchers have

drawn attention to various institutionalised mechanisms, such as tracking, ability grouping and

5

types of schools that have been developed within the educational system (Ayalon and Yuchtman-

Yaar. 1989; Shavit 1984; Shavit 1990; Shavit and Featherman 1988). According to these studies,

the opportunity structure available for different ethnic groups is shaped by the educational

system long time before entering the labor market. Students from disadvantaged social origins do

poorly in schools and obtain less schooling and credentials, and therefore tend to develop low

occupational expectations. This process is amplified by their disproportional concentration in

less favorable schooling structures such as vocational tracks and low quality schools (Oakes

1985; Oakes and Gretchen 1995; Shavit 1990; Solorzano 1992). Therefore, I predict that

different schooling structures such as tracks and types of schools will exert significant influence

on the occupational expectations of students.

By contrast, some other studies that depend on structural explanations have emphasised the role

of spatial or regional factors such as residential and labor-market segregation in determining the

opportunity structure for different ethnic groups, and thus creating socio-economic and ethnic

inequalities (Fieldhouse and Gould 1998; Fieldhouse and Tranmer 2001; Mazawi 1998;

Semyonov 1988; Semyonov and Lewin Epstein 1989; Shavit 1990). According to these studies,

spatial and labor market segregation leads to two theoretically distinct outcomes. On the one

hand, spatial segregation has long been viewed as a sign of socio-economic and ethnic inequality

and restricted occupational opportunities, particularly for ethnic minorities (Fieldhouse and

Gould 1998), and therefore as an effective mechanism through which minorities are denied

access to equal opportunities and rewards (Lewin Epstein and Semyonov 1992). For example,

Fieldhouse (1999) has found that for the black and Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations in

Britain, there is a strong relationship between their economic opportunities and their

concentration in areas of economic disadvantage. He argues that their high rate of unemployment

is a combination of their residential segregation and the negative effects of living in

disadvantaged areas (Fieldhouse 1999: 1593). Under such conditions, the returns on education

and other human capital investments will be low for these groups, and this may lead students to

develop antagonism toward education and scepticism about their future socio-economic

opportunities. However, in societies with relatively open regional mobility and a free economy,

members of such groups can avoid the negative effects of segregation by changing their place of

residence, and thus students from these ethnic groups would remain highly motivated. In reality,

regional mobility for many ethnic groups is not completely free and members of the same ethnic

6

minority are likely to settle within the same areas or localities with only limited mobility (Rivkin

1994).

On the other hand, it has been argued that when the ethnic minority is large enough and enjoys a

high degree of residential segregation, independent local labor market may develop in which

workers from the ethnic group will be protected from direct competition with workers from the

dominant groups and from job discrimination (Portes 1987; Waters and Eschbach 1995; Wilson

and Portes 1980). In other words, establishing an enclave labor market can provide the members

of the ethnic groups with returns on human capital investments as high as the returns to members

from the dominant groups within the general labor market. In this case minority students are

likely to develop high occupational expectations as they can observe other members of the ethnic

group succeeding in exchanging their educational attainment with jobs of high status within the

ethnic labor market.

Residential segregation usually leads to educational segregation (Rivkin 1994). Students from

segregated ethnic groups often maintain separate educational systems, and therefore minority

students are not required to compete academically with students from dominant groups (Shavit

1990). They may thus develop more favourable self-images and high aspirations and

expectations. Yogev and Ilan (1987) in their study of Jewish students from oriental origins living

in Israeli development towns (Yogev and Ilan 1987) found that the ethnic enclave strongly

influences the aspirations and plans of the development town's students to obtain a matriculation

diploma. Kao and Tienda (1998) have also reached similar conclusions in their study of the

educational aspirations of minority youth in USA. The high aspirations of the black students in

their study were likely to be explained by their extreme segregation in school (Kao and Tienda

1998: 380). Residential and, respectively, educational segregation does not only enhance

minority students’ educational expectations, but also increases their educational opportunities

and attainments de-facto (Shavit 1990). If educational opportunities and attainment affect

students’ occupational expectations (Ayalon and Yuchtman-Yaar. 1989), we predict that ethnic

minority students who attend segregated schools and have access to various occupational

opportunities provided by the ethnic labor market will develop high occupational expectations.

This paper does not suggest that segregation is an ideal arrangement for ethnic minorities or that

minorities actually benefit from it. In most cases, segregation excludes the minority from access

to equal socio-economic rewards, and facilitates the maintaining of the status quo. However, it

7

seems that the cost of the segregation for ethnic minorities is expected to be lesser than the cost

of discrimination.

The Context of the Study

The Palestinian-Arab population in Israel is made up of three major religious groups (Muslims,

Christians and Druze) constituting approximately one fifth (19%) of the total population of the

State of Israel (Semyonov, Lewin Epstein, and Brahm 1999). Since the establishment of the state

of Israel in 1948, Palestinian-Arabs as a whole have always been Israel’s most oppressed group,

facing wide systematic discrimination in every aspect of social, political and economic sphere

(Haidar 1994). They are also viewed by the state as a fifth column and a security threat resulting

in a collective exemption from compulsory military service (given to the minority since the

1950s) with the exception of the Druze (Barzilai 2001). This maintains their exclusion from the

equal rewards and opportunities within the society and becomes one of the most efficient

mechanisms of discrimination against Palestinian-Arabs in Israel (Kraus, Shavit, and Yaish

1998). Politically, the Palestinian minority has been marginalized during public debates over the

country’s future and Arab political parties have not been included in government coalitions

(Barzilai 2001).

Residentially, the Palestinian-Arabs are highly segregated from Jews. They live mainly in

segregated localities located in three geocultural areas: Galilee, the Triangle and the Negev with

only 10% of them living in mixed cities like Haifa and Jaffa (Lewin Epstein and Semyonov

1994; Mazawi 1998; Shavit 1993). Compared with Jewish localities, most of the Palestinian

localities in Israel are villages and small towns lacking appropriate infrastructure as well as

appropriate occupational and economic opportunities (Semyonov 1988). Therefore, many

Palestinian workers depend on the Jewish controlled labor market in seeking jobs.

However, several studies have indicated that Palestinian-Arab localities represent different

social, economic and mobility opportunities according to their size, state development policies,

ethnic composition and regional factors (Khattab 2002; Lewin Epstein and Semyonov 1992;

Mazawi 1998). While the Palestinian-Arab localities as a whole constitute an ethnic enclave due

to their spatial segregation and the cultural differences between Arabs and Jews (Lewin Epstein

and Semyonov 1992; Lewin Epstein and Semyonov 1994), these localities differ from each other

in terms of socio-economic, spatial and religious characteristics (Mazawi 1998). Localities in

Galilee are mainly small rural villages, with exception of Shafa-‘Amr and Nazareth. In addition,

8

they are religiously heterogeneous and some have a broad set of academic and vocational public

and private schools which provid better educational opportunities. By contrast, localities in the

Triangle and the Negev areas represent homogeneous regions, with as absolute majority of their

inhabitants being Muslim. Furthermore, the Triangle area has experienced rapid urbanization and

a significant shift from an agricultural-based to an increasingly diversified local economy

(Mazawi 1998).

The differences between regions and localities within the Arab ethnic enclave need to be in

models of the occupational expectations of Palestinian-Arab students. Some localities clearly

have better economic and educational opportunities than others. For example, students who live

in localities where private education (schools) is available have more access to educational

opportunities than students who live in localities lacking such education. In addition, workers

who live in large Arab localities (cities like Nazareth in the Galilee) will have more occupational

opportunities within the local labor market than workers who live in small villages. Following

this logic, we can hypothesize that the locality context will influence the students’ occupational

expectations. In other words, the differences in socio-economic opportunities between the

localities are likely to result in different levels of occupational expectations among the students.

As I mentioned above, Arab localities in Israel constitute an ethnic (enclave) labor market

(Lewin Epstein and Semyonov 1994; Semyonov 1988; Semyonov and Lewin Epstein 1992;

Yogev 1995). This enclave economy consists of Arab workers in the segregated Arab localities

(Arab local government in Israel and the Arab educational system) and of Arab workers in firms

which are active in the Jewish sector but owned by Arabs (Al-Haj & Resenfeld, 1990; Shavit,

1992). The literature on Arabs in the Israeli economy reveals that those who find employment

within the Arab ethnic enclave enjoy advantages in the conversion of educational resources into

occupational outcomes (Lewin Epstein & Semyonov, 1994). For example, Semyonov (1988: P.

264), argues that Israeli Arabs benefit from their residential segregation from Jews. By analysing

the 1983 Israeli census data, he shows that Arabs working in mixed or Jewish communities

suffer the detrimental consequences of occupational discrimination, while Arabs working in

Arab towns and villages are shielded from Jewish competition.

However, compared with the Jewish labour market, the Arab enclave labour market is very

restricted in its size and is characterised by limited industrial and occupational opportunities.

Consequently, most Arab workers are employed in the Jewish-controlled economy where they

suffer severe labour market discrimination (Kraus, Shavit, and Yaish 1998). For example, the

9

Arab enclave economy lacks almost completely any kind of high-tech, communication or

military industries and these fields within the general labor market are hermetically closed to

Palestinians for security reasons (Eisikovits 1997). In the light of what has been mentioned

above, I predict that on the one hand Palestinian students are likely to develop high occupational

expectations. On the other hand, their occupational expectations will be directed toward

occupations that are available to them within the local labor market, such as service professions.

Ethnically, the Arab population in Israel consists of three major religious Muslims make up 79%

of the total Arab population, Christians about 12% and the Druze about 9% (Israel Bureau of

Statistics, the 1995 census). According to Mazawi (1996), the three religious groups differ from

each other culturally, residentially and in their social and economic characteristics. Christians are

more urban and “modern”, have a lower fertility rate, better educational attainments and their

occupational status is considerably higher than that of the Muslims and Druze, who live in

village localities and share the same cultural background. In addition, since 1956, Druze males,

unlike Muslims and Christians, have been conscripted into the Israeli military, which

theoretically entitles them to better educational resources, better access to the labour market,

more governmental investments and other financial benefits (Khattab 2002). Consequently,

Druze and Christian Localities or areas where Druze and Christians constitute a high percentage

of the local population are expected to provide better economic and educational opportunities

than Muslim localities. Respectively, students who live in Druze or Christian localities are

expected to develop higher occupational expectations than students who live in Muslim

localities.

Concerning the educational system, Arab schools are separated from Jewish schools both

spatially and administratively, though it is tightly controlled by the state. In addition, due to

religious and historical factors as well as state policies, a second level of segregation within the

Arab educational system has been developed. For the most part, Moslem children attend Moslem

schools, Druze students attend mostly Druze schools and the majority of Christians attend

Christian private schools (Mazawi 1996). In fact, three administrative bodies oversee the

educational affairs of the Arab population: a public system mainly catering for Moslem Arabs,

another public one for Druze pupils, and a private sector which mainly enrolls Christian students.

However, in all schools within the Palestinian-Arab educational system in Israel the teaching

language used is Arabic, the teachers are Palestinian-Arabs and come mainly from the same

community or locality of the students.

10

It may be hypothesised that the segregation of Palestinian students from Jewish students will

enhance their expectations due to the lack of competition, but unfortunately this hypothesis

cannot be tested directly in this study, simply because the majority of Palestinian students attend

separate schools and the few who do attend Jewish school are not covered by this research.

However, the internal segregation within the Arab educational system (Arab-public, Druze-

public and private schools) will allow me to test this hypothesis for the Palestinian students

within the ethnic enclave, some of whom live in mixed localities, while others live in mono-

religion localities.

A comparison between the Jewish educational system and the Palestinian one shows that unlike

the former, the latter lacked a modern infrastructure, facilities and equipment and equal

allocation of resources (Eisikovits 1997). Moreover, the Arab state-school system has a

significantly lower holding power as a result of a high dropout rate among Palestinian students.

While more than 85% of the Jewish students complete 12 years of schooling, this is true for

about 50% of the comparable Palestinian student cohort (Mazawi 1996). Arab schools are

academically oriented because vocational programs and tracks are conspicuously absent (Al-Haj

1995; Shavit 1990). Although the absence of vocational tracks is one of the reasons for

restricting the holding power of the Arab schools, paradoxically, this enhances the allocation of

proportionally more Palestinian-Arabs to academic post-secondary education compared with

Jewish students of Oriental background (Shavit 1990).

The Model

The outcome variable (occupational expectations) is measured using a five class version of

Goldthorpe’s class scheme (Erikson and Goldthorpe 1992): Service class (I+II), Routine non-

manual class (IIIab), Petty bourgeoisie (IVab), Skilled workers (V+VI) and Unskilled workers

(VII) as the “reference category”.

To examine the impact of segregation and the local ethnic labor market on the occupational

expectations of students, I use a two-level model with data on students and localities (local labor

market). Because the outcome variable has 5 categories (M=5), I use a multinomial two-level

hierarchical linear model (HLM) and a logit link function. For an extensive treatment and

applications of the methodology see for example (Bryk and Raudenbush 1992; Fieldhouse and

Tranmer 2001; Raudenbush, Brian, and Cheong 1993). The model consists of four level-1

equations and four sets of level-2 equations with error terms and random variation at the locality

level:

11

The student-level equations

)4(ij1kk111j0)5(ij

)4(ij)4(ij

)3(ij1kk111j0)5(ij

)3(ij)3(ij

)2(ij1kk111j0)5(ij

)2(ij)2(ij

)1(ij1kk111j0)5(ij

)1(ij)1(ij

)X(....)X(

)X(....)X(

)X(....)X(

)X(....)X(

βββφφη

βββφφη

βββφφη

βββφφη

++=

=

++=

=

++=

=

++=

=

log

log

log

log

where ijη is the log-odds that student i in locality j falls into the specific category (1-4) relative

to that of falling into category 5. Note that in this model each category (from 1 to 4) is

represented by a different equation. The X11, X21,…, Xk1 are the level-1 predictors. The kβ are

the coefficients which measure the change in the respective log-odds given one-unit change in

the predictors, holding all other variables constant.

The locality-level equations

In what follows I defined a set of four equations to estimate the effect of the locality on the

occupational expectations of students with an error term representing the random variation

around the grand mean for the outcome. In all within-locality models, coefficients that represent

the effects of the level-1 predictors are assumed not to vary across localities; only the intercept

(i.e the locality means for the outcome) are assumed to vary from locality to locality.

)4(j02k)4(k012)4(01)4(00)4(j0

)3(j02k)3(k012)3(01)3(00)3(j0

)2(j02k)2(k012)2(01)2(00)2(j0

)1(j02k)1(k012)1(01)1(00)1(j0

uuu

u

)Z(...)Z(

)Z(...)Z(

)Z(...)Z(

)Z(...)Z(

+++=

+++=

+++=

+++=

γγγβγγγβγγγβγγγβ

where jk0β are the intercepts for each category that has been set to vary randomly between

localities. The k0γ represents the effect of the locality characteristics on the occupational

expectations of students. The jkZ representing the locality-level variables.

12

Data and Method

Data and Variables

The data consist of two levels: student level and locality level. For the locality level, the data

refer to the locality’s socio-economic characteristics, educational opportunities, ethnic or

religious composition and locality status (village, Arab city or mixed city). These data were

obtained from the 20 percent sample of the Israeli Census conducted by the Israel Central Bureau

of Statistics in 1995 and from other published sources of the ministry of education and other

non-formal organisations.

For the student level, the data came from a large national representative survey of Palestinian

high school students in 42 public and private schools located in 27 Palestinian-Arab localities in

Israel. The survey contains information on the students’ family and religious backgrounds,

parent-student relations, student values and life goals, attitudes towards school, as well as

educational and occupational expectations. Although the sample consists of students from 9th

and 11th grades, in this study I focus exclusively on the 11th grade students. This is because 11th

grade students are very close to completing their secondary education, and therefore they are

more likely to have clear and realistic occupational expectations. Another reason is that the 11th

grade students are highly selected, and therefore academically different from the 9th grade

students, simply because of the very high dropout rate from Palestinian-Arab schools in Israel.

Because this could bias the sample, I use the dropout rate at the locality level as one of the

predictors in the multilevel models.

The 27 localities have been selected using proportional stratified sample. The strata have been

produced by establishing a socio-economic profile based on a combination of three variables: (a)

the total fertility rate of Arab women; (b) the proportion of Arab women aged 30-34 who have at

least 10 to 12 years of schooling; (c) the average per capita income in locality.

The final sample consisted of 1,799 students from 26 localities. 1,099 of the students were girls

and 700 were boys. In terms of religion, 1207 students were Muslims, 311 Christians and 281

Druze students. The variables used in the analysis are presented in Table 1.

(Table 1)

13

Findings

The findings of this study are presented in two stages: a comparison between the occupational

expectations of students and the actual attainments of Arab-Palestinian adults aged 25-34 who

had at least 11 years of schooling in 1995, and an analysis of the factors that predict students’

occupational expectations. The means, standard deviations and ranges of the student-level as

well as the locality-level variables are presented in Table 2.

(Table 2)

Table 3 presents a comparison between the occupational expectations of students and the actual

occupational distribution among adult Arab-Palestinians aged 25-34 with at least 11 years of

schooling in Israel. The comparison clearly shows that the Arab-Palestinian students in Israel

hold very high occupational expectations. Their occupational expectations are much higher than

the occupational attainment among the adult population aged 25-34. In fact, there is a sharp gap

between the students’ expectations and the adults’ attainment. This is true for boys and girls

from the three religious groups (Muslims, Christians and Druze). However, the occupational

expectations and attainment of females tend to be considerably higher than the males. While

more than three-quarters of the students expected to have occupationas in either class I+II or

IIIab, more than two-thirds of the Muslim men and more than half of the Christian and Druze

men are skilled or unskilled workers. Arab-Palestinian women (from all religion groups) are

more likely to be in class I+II and IIIab than the men. This pattern of employment is a result of a

cultural preferences and a local labor market settings (Khattab 2002; Semyonov, Lewin Epstein,

and Brahm 1999). With respect to Arab-Palestinian girls, it seems that their expectations are not

only higher than the women’s occupational attainment, but also higher than the boys’

expectations.

(Table 3)

The fact that girls’ occupational expectations are higher than boys expectations is not entirely

surprising, especially if we take into account the fact that women are more likely than men to

work in jobs of high status. In addition, over the last decade the girls had greater access to

educational opportunities than boys do. By contrast, the comparison has not shown any

14

significant differences between the students from the three religion groups despite the sharp

differences in their actual attainment.

In the light of the gap between students’ expectations and adult attainment, one may ask to what

extent are the students’ expectations disconnected from reality? To answer this question I

examine the distribution of the most expected ten occupations among the students. The logic of

this is as follows: if we find that the majority of Arab students are expect to have jobs that

normally fall within the Jewish-controlled labor market and are closed for Arab workers, then we

can conclude that these students are not realistic. However, if these students are targeting jobs

that are available to them within the Arab enclave economy, then one might conclude that the

students’ occupational expectations are in line with their reality.

The distribution of these occupations is presented in Table 4 for boys and girls separately. The

results demonstrate two major findings. First, occupational expectations of Arab-Palestinian

students in Israel are in line with the available occupational opportunities within the local labor

market. Second, there is a difference in the occupational expectations of boys and girls which

reflects the difference in occupations of women and men within the labor force (Khattab 2002).

Interestingly, none of the occupations listed in Table 4 falls exclusively within the Jewish-

controlled labor market, nor is closed for Arab workers, for example military based industries,

hi-tech and telecommunications. Moreover, all these occupations are available for Arab workers

within the ethnic labor market, and in seven of them at least, workers can be self employed (e.g.

engineering, law and accounting). Thus, it is safe to assume that the majority of students who

realize their expectations will find jobs, (or at least would seek jobs) within the ethnic enclave

either as a salaried worker or as self-employed. These results are a clear sign that Palestinian

students are developing their occupational expectations in line with the structural barriers in the

general labor market as well as with the poor variety of career choices available in the ethnic

labor market. In other words, the presence of the enclave economy seems to play a dual role as

far as the students’ expectations are concerned. It may generate high occupational expectations

amongst the students, but because it offers very limited occupational opportunities, students are

“forced” to develop expectations within a very narrow range of occupations. However, there are

some exceptions to this. A growing number of Arab medical staff, Arab pharmacists and other

para-medical workers are employed in hospitals and other medical institutions in the primary

labor market, though they constitute a small proportion of the total Arab labor force.

(Table 4)

15

The figures in Table 4 also indicate that the occupational expectations of boys are evidently

different from those of girls. The differences between both sexes can be summarized as follows:

first, the variation between occupations among girls is smaller than the variation among boys.

While about three-quarters of girls are distributed over the most ten expected occupations, only

58 percent of the boys are concentrated in the first ten jobs. Second, among the girls, there is a

clear preference for teaching and educational jobs (31% of the girls by comparison with 8

percent of boys). In reality, about a third of the Arab men (29%) and over half of the women

with post-secondary education hold educational jobs. Third, all of the ten expected occupations

for girls are non-manual jobs and fall mainly within the service class (I+II). By contrast, amongst

the boys, there are two occupations that are considered skilled and semi-skilled manual jobs

(electricians and driving) indicating that the composition of expected occupations of boys is

rather different than girls.

In Table 5, I turn to the multilevel analysis in which I estimate the role of locality characteristics

as well as the effect of individual factors in determining the occupational expectations of

students. The results partially confirm the hypotheses mentioned earlier. At the student-level,

apart from gender and academic ability, the other variables are not statistically significant.

Neither tracks, nor student SES has a significant effect on the log odds contracting Class VII

with the other classes. The reason is that tracking patterns and students’ SES are a function of the

locality SES (Mazawi 1998) and when the locality SES is controlled their effect is cancelled out.

The insignificant effect of the tracks may also be because tracking in the Arab educational

system is underdeveloped, which causes very little variation between students as the majority of

them (about 80%) study in academic tracks (Shavit 1990).

As expected, gender has a very strong effect on the log odds contrasting the expectations for

Class VII with the other classes. Being a boy reduces the log odds for all the four class,

especially Class I+II and IIIab. Thus girls are more likely to expect occupations in Class I+II and

IIIab.

Student’s educational achievement also has a strong positive effect in the expected direction on

the log odds of the students’ expectations for the four classes versus Class VII, especially, on the

log odds involving Class I+II. This finding replicates previous research showing the positive

relationship between the academic ability and the future expectations (Ayalon and Yuchtman-

Yaar. 1989; Kao and Tienda 1998; Mickelson 1990; Sewell and Hauser 1980; Shavit and

Williams 1985).

16

At the locality level, the results reveal a significant effect of four variables: locality SES, dropout

rate, religious composition and local occupational opportunities, while educational opportunities

and locality status (Village or city vs. mixed Arab-Jewish cities) have no significant effect on the

log odds contrasting Class VII with the other classes. Surprisingly, the locality SES has a

significant and negative effect only on the log odds involving Class V+VI. For the other classes

the effect is insignificant, though it is negative.

Dropout rate seems to lower the log odds of the four classes versus class VII. This effect means

that, all else being equal, the higher the dropout rate within the locality, the less likely that the

students’ expectations will fall within Classes I+II through V+VI versus Class VII. In other

words, a one-unit change in the predictors, holding all other variables constant, will reduce the

odds of expecting a job in Class I+II through V+VI relative to Class VII by 53%, 39%, 53% and

63% respectively.

However, one may expect that under certain conditions, dropout rate would enhance students’

expectations rather than restrict them by creating a sense of selectivity among the students.

Where dropout rate reaches very high levels students that remain in schools may develop

positive self-esteem and therefore high occupational expectations. In this study, this hypothesis

has not been confirmed, simply because this effect should be measured at the school level

because dropout rate at the locality level is not necessarily equivalent to dropout rate at school

level. It is more reasonable here to refer to dropout as a proxy for other unidentified factors such

as the availability of vocational tracks within the locality educational system (Mazawi 1996), and

as a function of the socio-economic level of the locality.

(Table 5)

The results in Table 5 also show that the religious composition of the locality has a significant

and negative effect on the log odds involving Class I+II, IIIab V+VI, while for Class IVab the

coefficient is not significant though is negative. This means that in mono-religious Muslim

localities students are less likely to have expectations for Class I+II, IIIab and V+VI relative to

expectations for Class VII than students who live in bi-religious or multi-religious localities.

This result is consistent with the hypothesis regarding the effects of the religious context of the

locality indicating that students who live in mixed localities (Muslim-Christian-Druze) are more

likely to develop higher occupational expectations. This could be due to the better educational

17

and occupational opportunities provided to inhabitants within these localities as explained

earlier. It is possible also that students who belong to the least advantage groups in these

localities tend to develop occupational expectations in line with the norms held by students from

the more advantage groups. This finding supports previous studies that have found similar

effects of the ethnic context on students’ expectations (Shavit and Williams 1985).

Like the religious composition of the locality, the local occupational opportunities have a

significant and negative effect on the log odds contrasting Class VII with the other classes. In

other words, given a one-unit change in this predictor, holding all other variables constant will

reduce the odds of the expectations for Class I+II through V+VI by 64%, 59%, 64% and 68%

respectively. The local occupational opportunities represent the effect of the ethnic labor market

on the occupational expectations of students, and this result is rather surprising given the earlier

predictions. It was expected that the ethnic labor market would have the same effects on

occupational expectations as it has on the returns on human capital. This negative effect needs to

be explained. I will elaborate on this issue in the discussion.

To sum up the findings, the multilevel analysis suggest that students’ occupational expectations

are strongly determined by the locality context as well as gender and academic ability. It seems

that living inside the ethnic enclave (Arab villages and cities vs. mixed Arab-Jewish cities) as

well as within localities where private education is available does not have any independent

significant impact on students’ occupational expectations. It is possible that the effect of these

two variables is being mediated by other variables in the equation such as the local occupational

opportunities and the religious composition of the locality.

Discussion

The major objective of this research was to examine the role of the local labor market and

segregation in determining the occupational expectations of minority students. It was

hypothesized that the presence of an ethnic labor market on the one hand and

residential/educational segregation from the majority population on the other hand would

enhance the occupational expectations of minority students. While the ethnic labor market can

shelter the minority from economic discrimination (Lewin Epstein and Semyonov 1994), their

segregation from the majority avoids the negative consequences of comparisons and helps in

developing positive self-esteem (Shavit 1990; Yogev and Ilan 1987). The data presented in this

paper have shown that unlike other minority students (Hanson 1994; McLeod 1987; McNair and

18

Brown 1983; Mickelson 1990), Palestinian students in Israel develop very high occupational

expectations despite their extreme disadvantages within the Israeli social structure. Interestingly,

it was found that most of the students in this study have occupational expectations involving

Class I+II that are associated with high levels of education. Based on the comparison between

expectations and attainment, these expectations seem to be unrealistically high. The question this

raises is to what extent those expectations are a function of the presence of an ethnic local labor

market and the residential/educational segregation of the minority.

Based on the multilevel analysis it is possible to identify two different processes. The first refers

to the effects of the locality SES (though it wasn’t significant for three of the classes) and the

local occupational opportunities. The second deals with the impact of the dropout rate and the

religious composition of the locality. There is a strong relationship between these factors, yet the

processes represent different phenomena and different dynamics within the locality context, and

it is important to differentiate between them.

Process 1: the structure of opportunities. Ayalon and Yuchtman-Yaar (1989), have indicated

that the characteristics of the local community and its educational system have a major impact on

the students’ occupational aspirations. Thus, differences within the structure of opportunities are

likely to generate different types and levels of aspirations. Following this logic, I would argue

that the religious composition of the locality which is a measure of internal segregation, and the

dropout rate at the locality level represent a form of structural inequality within Palestinian

society in Israel.

The effect of internal ethnic segregation (religious composition of the locality) clearly

demonstrates that students who live in mono-religious Muslim localities are less likely than other

students to develop high occupational expectations. This could be due to the better educational

and occupational opportunities and the higher socio-economic status of the localities inhabited

by non-Muslims, especially Christians (Mazawi 1996). These communities (in non-Muslim

localities), because of their socio-economic advantages, generate higher occupational

expectations among their students (see also Ayalon Yuchtman-Yaar 1989; Kerckhoff, 1976).

Therefore, developing high occupational expectations among these communities can serve as a

mechanism to preserve their privilege across generations.

It seems that internal segregation (between different ethnic/religious groups within the same

population) serves to maintain social inequalities, and in this sense, operates in the opposite

direction to the predicted effect of segregation between the minority and the majority. It would

19

be very interesting to compare, within the same research framework, the effect of external

segregation and internal segregation on the occupational expectations of students. Such research

would make a very significant contribution to understanding the different ways in which

segregation affects students’ expectations and thereby their future attainment.

The internal religious/ethnic segregation between homogeneous Muslim localities and

religiously heterogeneous localities reflects to a greater extent the socio-economic differences

between the Palestinian-Arab localities in Israel as well as the available educational

opportunities (private education and tracking patterns). Therefore, the holding power of the

educational system within the more-established localities is much greater than within the less-

established localities. The dropout rate and its effect, in the present study, reflects the disparities

in educational opportunities between the localities as reported by Mazawi (1998).

Process 2: the inversive effect of the ethnic labor market . This process deals with the effect of

the local economy and the locality SES on students’ occupational expectations. The multilevel

analysis suggested that, controlled on other factors, the local labor market and to lesser extent the

locality SES exert a negative effect on the student’s occupational expectations. This effect is

comparable to the campus effect on career choice found by Davis (1966), and to the school

context on students’ educational expectations found by Shavit (1985). This effect, labeled by

Davis as the “frog pond” effect (Davis 1966), is the inverse of the earlier hypothesis regarding

the relationship between the quality or level of the local labor market and students’ occupational

expectations. According to the “frog pond” effect, if academic ability were well controlled,

school quality (the local labor market in this case) is negatively associated with the level of

aspirations and expectations of students. The logic of this effect is that students tend to evaluate

their performance according to local standards, and because high grades are unusual in poor

schools, such a students tend to develop positive self-esteem. Thus, the better the school a

student attends, the lower his or her expectations will be.

This idea can be applied to the present case, substituting local labor markets for schools. Most of

the local labor markets consist mainly of jobs of high status, whereas skilled and unskilled

workers are more likely to seek jobs within the general labor market (Semyonov 1988;

Semyonov and Cohen 1990). In addition, the high status jobs are likely to be associated with

higher education, and therefore the larger the local economy, the higher the socio-economic level

or context of the locality. In well-established localities, students know that to get a job within the

locality, either in its educational system or in its local authority, they need to gain higher

20

education, although their academic ability is not outstanding compared with the local ability

level. Hence, these students feel that they have no advantage over other students, and therefore

their expectations become modest.

In conclusion, the occupational expectations of minority students are highly influenced by

different processes taking place at the locality level. On the one hand, disparities in socio-

economic opportunities between localities generate different levels of occupational expectations,

and in this case students’ occupational expectations are a sign and mechanism of social

inequality. In parallel to this, the locality socio-economic status has a negative effect which

increases the students’ homogeneity within the locality. This dual effect of the locality is

possible due to the internal segregation of the minority within the Palestinian society in Israel

and to the presence of a local labor market.

We have seen that in seeking to understand how minority students develop their occupational

expectations, it is not enough to focus on the individual differences nor on the ethnic group

characteristics. When the minority is segregated from the dominant group, and when the

minority itself is ethnically/religiously heterogeneous, applying a multilevel method seems to be

in place. Under such conditions, this method enables us to gain a better understanding of the

dynamics and processes that determine students’ occupational expectations.

The present study is related not only to the Palestinian case in Israel, but also it helping us to

understand how spatial and educational segregation affects aspirations and expectations, of

Black and Hispanic students in the USA and Pakistani and Bangladeshi students in Britain.

21

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Table 1: Definition of VariablesVariables Description

Dependent Variable

Occupationalexpectations

Measured using a five-class versionof Goldethorpe’s class schema[Erikson, 1992 #504].

Student levelGender A dummy variableEducationalAchievement

Measured by the Grades average astudent received in four requiredsubjects: Arabic, Hebrew, Englishand Mathematics).

Science, Humanitiestracks

A dummy variables indicating thetrack attended by the student

Student’s SES An index of father’s education andoccupation.

Locality levelLocality SES Socio-economic index developed

based on the economic, social anddemographic factors.

Educationalopportunities

A dummy variable indicating that thelocality has Private schools.

Dropout Rate Continuous variable indicating therate of those aged 18-24 in 1995 whodropped out before completing the11th grade.

Religious compositionof locality

A dummy Variable: (1= 75 percent ormore are Muslims, 0=otherwise).

Local occupationalopportunities

Percentage of workers within thelocality’s labor market.

Arab Village, City A dummy variables indicating thelocality’s status. Mixed (Arab-Jewish localities are the referencegroup.

27

Table 2: Descriptive Statistics of the Independent VariablesIndependent Variables Mean SD RangeLevel-1 variables (N=1799)Boys 0.39 0.49 0-1Educational Achievement 76.38 10.53 50-95Science track 0.42 0.49 0-1Humanities track 0.48 0.5 0-1Father's SES 0.03 1.03 -0.86-2.67

Level-2 variables (N=26)Locality SES -0.62 0.7 -2.36-1.1Educational opportunities 0.27 0.45 0-1Dropout Rate 36.99 12.46 18-70Religious composition oflocality

0.62 0.5 0-1

Local occupationalopportunities

31.73 12.75 12-64

Arab village 0.73 0.45 0-1Arab city 0.15 0.37 0-1

28

Table 3: Students’ Occupational Expectations and Adults’ Occupational Attainments† byReligion and Gender.

Muslims Christians DruzeClass

Males Females Males Females Males Females

SE* AA** SE AA SE AA SE AA SE AA SE AA

Service class I+II 67 19 74 55 60 32 78 34 62 18 78 48

Routine non-manual

class IIIab

9 4 19 20 13 10 19 30 11 23 20 33

Petty bourgeoisie IVab 7 23 4 13 10 22 2 22 11 11 3 8

Skilled workers V+VI 12 21 3 3 14 24 2 8 14 20 --- 5

Unskilled workers VII 5 33 --- 8 4 12 --- 6 3 27 --- 8

N 458 723 749 239 140 156 171 122 102 98 179 40

† Source: the 1995 Israeli census, Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. The analysis of the occupational attainments is restricted to those whoaged 25-34 and have at least 11 years of schooling.* Students’ Occupational Expectations** Adults’ Occupational Attainments

29

Table 4: The Ten Most Expected Occupations (Jobs) for Palestinian Boys and GirlsBoys’

Occupations % Cumulative %Girls’ Occupations

% Cumulative %Engineering 11 11 Teaching 25 25Medicine 9 20 Medicine 9 34Teaching 8 28 Nursing 6 41Law 7 35 Secretary 6 47Accounting 4 39 Kindergarten

teaching6 53

Sport 4 43 Social work 6 58Police 4 47 Law 4 63Computer 4 51 Engineering 4 67Electricity 4 54 Psychology 4 71Driving 4 58 Pharmacy 3 74Other occupations 42 100 Other occupations 26 100Total 100 Total 100N 700 N 1099

30

Table 5: Multinomial Logit Models of Students’ Occupational ExpectationsContrasted with class VIIIndependent Variables I+II IIIab IVab V+VIIntercept 8.06**

(1.52)5.34**(1.57)

3.66†(1.82)

4.43*(1.65)

Locality variablesLocality SES -0.44

(.31)-0.14(.32)

-0.17(.42)

-0.92*(.41)

Educationalopportunities

-0.96(.63)

-0.85(.65)

-0.28(.77)

-0.30(.68)

Dropout Rate -0.06*(.02)

-0.04†(.02)

-0.06*(.03)

-0.08**(.03)

Religious compositionof locality

-1.80*(.82)

-1.81*(.85)

-1.61(1.01)

-1.68†(.93)

Local occupationalopportunities

-0.08*(.03)

-0.07†(.04)

-0.08†(.04)

-0.09*(.04)

Arab village -1.32(1.01)

-0.27(1.08)

0.10(1.30)

-0.84(1.14)

Arab city -1.71(1.08)

-0.57(1.15)

-0.78(1.39)

-1.44(1.20)

Student variablesBoys -3.43**

(.74)-3.90**(.75)

-2.25**(.77)

-1.65*(.77)

EducationalAchievement

0.10**(.02)

0.06**(.02)

0.06**(.02)

0.06**(.02)

Science track 0.62(.61)

-0.21(.64)

-0.33(.70)

-0.58(.66)

Humanities track 0.68(.61)

0.23(.63)

0.34(.68)

-0.31(.65)

Father's SES 0.16(.22)

0.01(.23)

0.15(.24)

-0.07(.24)

Residual variance .06 .06 .48 .12† P < .10 * P < .05 ** P < .01 (two-tailed tests)