Mialitiana Angela RASOLONJATOVO – January 2014 Page 1

Department of Bioengineering

Course : Renewable Energy – Master cycle

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INTRODUCTION In the term of energy, the world is now in front of an important crossroad

considering the important development of the technology, the big change of social habits,

and the degradation of the environment. Now is the time to take decisive actions for

government and even each of us. That’s why we need to make work our imagination in

order to explore all possibilities for a better future. So let’s make “scenarios”.

1 . Definition “Scenarios are alternative images of how the future might unfold and are an

appropriate tool with which to analyze how driving forces may influence future … outcomes

and to assess the associated uncertainties.” – IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

These scenarios are designed to assist various partners to face the "trilemma"

energy: balancing respect for the environment, energy security and energy equity, by

presenting different policy options.

2 . The world in 2050 : “a world of contrasts and paradoxes.”

On the one hand, science and technology have continued to advance in response to

emerging crises, challenges and opportunities. This has created radical

transformations in genetics, nanotechnology, biotechnology and related fields.

On the other hand, many of these same technologies have been so disruptive that it

has led to a more frightening, unpredictable and chaotic world than ever before.

Humanity is now at a crossroads that will determine its future path for centuries to

come – survival or destruction, prosperity or collapse.

Humanity took lessons from all the mistakes made before and are now initiating

revolution. Revolution, not by war and violence like before, but through knowledge,

technology, information and know how.

A new concept appears: collaboration between scientists are very developed thanks

to New Technology of Information and Communication. That gap between real facts

observer like journalist and the theory of scientist and analyst are reduced. Thus each

discovery finds rapidly application in human daily life.

The capitalism remains the dominant economic model, but is now changing

drastically in response to ecological impacts, resource scarcity, demographic trends,

technology and a host of other factors.

After passing through huge natural disaster, human being are more conscious on the

way he uses natural resources. Energy saving motor and technology has been

invented. The policy of nature conservations is now adopted by every country.

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The endless consumer culture that was prevalent throughout the first world has all

but collapsed, replaced by a societal need to conserve.

Figure 1 : IMPORTANT CHANGE AND EVOLUTION OF TECHNOLOGY

2.1 More importance to recycling and waste management:

Recycling and waste management for decades neglected by many countries are

among the issues now taking center stage. New regulations and market pressures

have forced corporations to move away from the model of planned obsolescence and

mass production, to one of conservation and responsibility.

In a world of increasing resource conflicts, "doing more with less" has become an

essential target. A system is also employed whereby customers return products at

the end of their life cycle, to be used as materials for the next generation.

Research on transformation of organic waste into biogas and biofuel are very

advanced.

In each apartment, organic waste are introduced into a particular canalization,

collected in big collectors and pretreated and transported into a biogas producing

firm which belongs to municipality.

2.2 And how about energy?

Progress has been realized in cooperating on certain key issues, such as global

warming. Carbon emissions have fallen substantially compared with 1990

levels, thanks to a global carbon tax and the widespread deployment of solar, wind

and wave power, together with 4th generation nuclear. Fossil fuel reserves were

declining in any case. Fusion power is also becoming available now and is being

adopted by some of the leading nations. Orbital solar is another emerging

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industry. Energy efficiency and conservation have provided further reductions in CO2

output.

However, carbon emissions from earlier decades remain locked into the system. This

delayed reaction will continue to affect climate stability, destruction of the Earth's

rainforests, some of which are transitioning from carbon sinks to carbon sources.

Large-scale carbon capture and sequestration appears to be humanity's last and only

hope of reversing these trends.

Over 30 billion tons of carbon has been added to the atmosphere. Although clean

energy sources are offsetting this, it can't save the countless species of plant and

animal life dependent on the rainforest for survival. Substantial amounts of

biodiversity have been lost. Desperate efforts are being made by non-profit

organizations to obtain DNA samples, in the hope of resurrecting these species at

some point in the future.

2.3 Important development of biomass energy

Genetic science has designed a high yield variety of crops appropriated for every

region according to each geophysical condition. These plants are grown rapidly and

are used to produce biofuel, biodiesel and bio charcoal.

The culture of algea has made a huge progress. Its culture is now easy. Many types

bioreactors directly combined into a energy transformer adapted for algae are now

available in the market: « algae-lamp », « algae-motor or algae generator », « algae-

car »

Figure 2 : CULTURE OF ALGAE

2.4 New model of city and architecture in developped country

Among the most important trends in modern architecture has been self-sufficiency.

By 2050, environmental and resource degradation have become so obvious and

huge, it has triggered a radical rethink of production and consumption by citizens. As

such, many modern skyscrapers now come complete with the internalized creation

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of food, water and other resources. Farms often comprise multiple floors of a tower

– regardless of its purpose – while rain, mist and condensation are constantly

trapped and stored.

Many towers incorporate parks and sky gardens, helping to increase the overall

biodiversity of a city, with numerous bird and small animal species finding homes and

nesting places. Careful environmental controls ensure that these creatures are

protected while not becoming a nuisance for human residents. The outside of

buildings are often covered with vegetation, or special membranes, designed to filter

pollutants and capture CO2. Government regulations now require it to be a dominant

style of architecture today. The artificial parts of this outer layer can also adjust to

wind conditions, temperatures, moisture levels and sunlight in order to produce

optimal thermal comfort for the human and animal occupants.

Figure 3 : External wall of a building in 2050

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Figure 4 : Apartment design in 2050 (Illustration by Rob House/Courtesy of Arup.)

By 2050 the “smart” buildings might include on-site power generated by algae, wind,

or photovoltaic paint; phase-changing and self-healing materials; farms that use recycled

water for irrigation; flying robots that maintain the building and add and delete functional

units; and myriad other technologies that are in development today.

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2.5 Tube City: A sustainable city within Delhi, the capital of India

This ambitious project attempts to find a cleaning solution for the Yamuna River that

has been neglected. A sustainable Tube City around the river throughout the city of

Delhi will not only purify the water of the River but will also help it to be a

sustainable mini city in its own right.

The Tube City will have it all – from farming areas and residential areas to

commercial and office spaces and playgrounds. This project would address some of

the basic infrastructure problems of Delhi. The 21 km long Tube City would provide

food, housing, generate employment and even transportation in order to reduce the

load on the main city without taking up any of the prime land – as the Tube City is

constructed on the Yamuna River. Furthermore, a special mechanism would be

employed across the length and breadth of the Tube City in order to prevent the

pollution inside the Tube City.

Figure 5 : the tube city design

2.6 Transportation in 2050 : Smaller, safer, hi-tech automobiles

Increased living costs and environmental factors have resulted in smaller, cheaper,

more energy-efficient cars.

The vast majority of cars in the developed world are now computer-controlled, while

traffic flow and other road management issues are handled by advanced networks.

The inherent safety of being controlled by machine, rather than human hands, allows

for greater speed of travel: over 100mph in many countries. Even when crashes do

occur, which is very rare, built-in safety features and toughened materials (e.g.

carbon nanotubes) mean that fatalities are becoming virtually non-existent.

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Figure 6 : Example of car design in 2050

2.7 Continent-wide "supergrids" provide much of the world's energy needs The need for reliable, clean, cost-effective energy has led to the creation of electrical

"supergrids" across much of the world. These allow nations to share power from abundant

green sources and distribute it to those regions most in need. By cooperating in this way, it is

possible to greatly reduce waste and to optimize power supplies on a continent-wide scale,

at all times of the year.

For instance, winter gales in the North Sea can provide a surplus of wind power, which is

complemented by the summer winds of Morocco and Egypt. Meanwhile, solar panels in

northern Africa generate three times the electricity compared with the same panels in

northern Europe, due to much greater intensity of sunlight. Up to 100 GW of power is being

supplied from Africa to Europe in this way. Similar large-scale infrastructure is now in place

throughout America, Asia and other parts of the world.

Long distance transmission technology has seen major advances over the decades. Each

country is connected to the grid using high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission,

instead of traditional alternating current (AC) lines. This results in far greater efficiency, since

DC lines have much lower electrical losses over long distances.

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Figure 7 : World electrical supergrids in 2050 (source : DESERTEC Foundation)

Figure 8 :Predicted cumulative installed power generation capacity (GW)

Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Note: forecast is from BNEF New Normal forecast scenario from the BNEF Global Renewable Energy

Market Outlook

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CONCLUSION

World in 2050 is full of promises and hopes. Still it depends on the efforts that we are making

now and we will be making these next futures that it would be real. These scenarios will enable

policymakers and leaders in the energy field to gain a better understanding of the developments

likely to be shaping the energy transformation to 2050.

REFERENCES

http://www.ecofriend.com/tube-city-sustainable-city-delhi-capital-india.html

http://www.asce.org/CEMagazine/Article.aspx?id=23622323418#.UsrU8x1UG7k

http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2050-2059.htm

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20130617-moving-around-in-the-megacity

http://about.bnef.com/presentations/global-renewable-energy-market-outlook-2013-fact-

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