Malawi Electoral Commission

Media Training in Preparation for the 2014

Tripartite Elections

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Reporting opinion polls

LZ Manda,PhD lmanda@poly.ac.mw

Mzuzu Hotel, 2-4 October, 2013

What are opinion polls?

Vote of popular feelings and choices at a

specific moment and on a specific topic

Representation of popular

approval/disapproval of policy,

performance, person or institution

Vox populli

Survey of views

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Why opinion polls

Gauge public preferences vis-à-vis a specific issue/institution, etc

Help redirect unpopular policies

Help endorse popular policies/performance

Help predict the future (winner/loser)

Help identify issues and set agenda to concentrate on

Promote an individual, policy, action, etc

Symbolically amplify image of an institution/candidate

Symbolically annihilate image of an institution/candidate

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Who conducts election-related opinion

polls?

In-house experts, such as marketing

departments of media houses

Research departments of political parties

Expert pollsters (eg Gallup in the USA)

Hired/freelance statisticians

Individual or group of Journalists

Election-related INGOs/CBOs

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What to look for in an opinion poll

report 5 Ws & H

◦ Who conducted the opinion poll? For whom?

◦ Who commissioned and/or paid for the poll?

◦ When?

◦ Where?

◦ How?

◦ Why?

◦ What did it find?

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What to look for in an opinion poll

report

Sample, Population

◦ Who was polled?

◦ Was it a census?

◦ How was the sample recruited?

◦ What is the margin of error (the smaller the

better 1-5%).

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Population versus sample

Population: number of units of targeted respondents or

study universe. EG. For elections in Malawi, population

comprises people aged 18-infinity years old.

Sample: Selected representatives of a population. You

can assign random numbers and calculate sample with

aid of formula, but Daniel List’s rule of thumb is 200-

2000 units are enough.

100 = 2.2%; 200 = 1.6%; 400=1.1%; 800 = 0.8%

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Types of sample

Non-probability sample: Not

representative

Probability: Fully representative (stratified

and random)

Random: All units had a chance of being

selected. Not haphazard.

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A good sample

“Imagine that you have a bowl of soup. You don't know

what flavour it is. So you stir the soup in the bowl, take

a spoonful, and sip it. The bowl of soup is the population,

and the spoonful is the sample. As long as the bowl is

well-stirred (so that each spoonful is a random sample),

the size of the bowl is irrelevant. If the bowl was twice

the size, you wouldn't need to take two spoonfuls to

assess the flavour: one spoonful would still be fine. This

is equally true for human populations.” Daniel List, 2003

(http://www.audiencedialogue.net/kya2a.html)

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Every report of an opinion poll

include methodology “The survey was conducted August 2-5. A random

sample of panelists was invited to participate in the

survey from a representative online pool of more than

400,000 Canadians. More than 1,000 people participated

in the survey but because it didn’t involve a random,

probability-based sample of the entire population, a

margin of error could not be calculated. A similar

random sample of 1,000 respondents would have a

margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points,

19 times out of 20.”

http://www.leaderpost.com/story_print.html?id=8964595

&sponsor=

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What to look for in an opinion poll

report

Reliability (dependability/trustworthiness of research tool)

◦ If someone used the same instrument would one get

a similar/equally robust response?

◦ How relevant were the questions?

Validity (Accuracy of findings)

◦ How generalisable are the results?

◦ If the sample was recruited randomly acknowledging

appropriate social strata, chances of the results

applying across the board are higher.

◦ Note that reliability and validity are interrelated.

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Whose opinion poll is honest?

No one’s.

Human behaviour is fickle

Expert polls are more acceptable than

those by political parties, but funders have

own agendas

Social media based polls can be tricky for

a non-social media saturated country like

Malawi

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Who should not conduct and/or

publish election-related opinion

polls?

Election management & regulatory bodies

◦ They will be accused of bias

The judiciary

◦ They will have problems presiding over election related cases

Parliamentary Service

◦ To maintain neutrality

Civil Service

◦ To maintain neutrality

The presidency and the cabinet

◦ They are competitors

Traditional chiefs

◦ To maintain neutrality

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Thanks

Yewu

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