Malawi Electoral Commission
Media Training in Preparation for the 2014
Tripartite Elections
111
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Reporting opinion polls
LZ Manda,PhD [email protected]
Mzuzu Hotel, 2-4 October, 2013
What are opinion polls?
Vote of popular feelings and choices at a
specific moment and on a specific topic
Representation of popular
approval/disapproval of policy,
performance, person or institution
Vox populli
Survey of views
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Why opinion polls
Gauge public preferences vis-à-vis a specific issue/institution, etc
Help redirect unpopular policies
Help endorse popular policies/performance
Help predict the future (winner/loser)
Help identify issues and set agenda to concentrate on
Promote an individual, policy, action, etc
Symbolically amplify image of an institution/candidate
Symbolically annihilate image of an institution/candidate
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Who conducts election-related opinion
polls?
In-house experts, such as marketing
departments of media houses
Research departments of political parties
Expert pollsters (eg Gallup in the USA)
Hired/freelance statisticians
Individual or group of Journalists
Election-related INGOs/CBOs
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What to look for in an opinion poll
report 5 Ws & H
◦ Who conducted the opinion poll? For whom?
◦ Who commissioned and/or paid for the poll?
◦ When?
◦ Where?
◦ How?
◦ Why?
◦ What did it find?
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What to look for in an opinion poll
report
Sample, Population
◦ Who was polled?
◦ Was it a census?
◦ How was the sample recruited?
◦ What is the margin of error (the smaller the
better 1-5%).
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Population versus sample
Population: number of units of targeted respondents or
study universe. EG. For elections in Malawi, population
comprises people aged 18-infinity years old.
Sample: Selected representatives of a population. You
can assign random numbers and calculate sample with
aid of formula, but Daniel List’s rule of thumb is 200-
2000 units are enough.
100 = 2.2%; 200 = 1.6%; 400=1.1%; 800 = 0.8%
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Types of sample
Non-probability sample: Not
representative
Probability: Fully representative (stratified
and random)
Random: All units had a chance of being
selected. Not haphazard.
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A good sample
“Imagine that you have a bowl of soup. You don't know
what flavour it is. So you stir the soup in the bowl, take
a spoonful, and sip it. The bowl of soup is the population,
and the spoonful is the sample. As long as the bowl is
well-stirred (so that each spoonful is a random sample),
the size of the bowl is irrelevant. If the bowl was twice
the size, you wouldn't need to take two spoonfuls to
assess the flavour: one spoonful would still be fine. This
is equally true for human populations.” Daniel List, 2003
(http://www.audiencedialogue.net/kya2a.html)
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Every report of an opinion poll
include methodology “The survey was conducted August 2-5. A random
sample of panelists was invited to participate in the
survey from a representative online pool of more than
400,000 Canadians. More than 1,000 people participated
in the survey but because it didn’t involve a random,
probability-based sample of the entire population, a
margin of error could not be calculated. A similar
random sample of 1,000 respondents would have a
margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points,
19 times out of 20.”
http://www.leaderpost.com/story_print.html?id=8964595
&sponsor=
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What to look for in an opinion poll
report
Reliability (dependability/trustworthiness of research tool)
◦ If someone used the same instrument would one get
a similar/equally robust response?
◦ How relevant were the questions?
Validity (Accuracy of findings)
◦ How generalisable are the results?
◦ If the sample was recruited randomly acknowledging
appropriate social strata, chances of the results
applying across the board are higher.
◦ Note that reliability and validity are interrelated.
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Whose opinion poll is honest?
No one’s.
Human behaviour is fickle
Expert polls are more acceptable than
those by political parties, but funders have
own agendas
Social media based polls can be tricky for
a non-social media saturated country like
Malawi
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Who should not conduct and/or
publish election-related opinion
polls?
Election management & regulatory bodies
◦ They will be accused of bias
The judiciary
◦ They will have problems presiding over election related cases
Parliamentary Service
◦ To maintain neutrality
Civil Service
◦ To maintain neutrality
The presidency and the cabinet
◦ They are competitors
Traditional chiefs
◦ To maintain neutrality
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