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RE EMERGENCE OF RUSSIA: CHALLENGES WITHIN US-DOMINATED

UNIPOLAR WORLD

CHAPTER- I

INTRODUCTION

PROBLEM STATEMENT

1. For more than two decades after the collapse of Soviet

Union, iron curtain of Cold War has fallen down, and United

States of America emerged as the dominant world power. USSR was

preoccupied by domestic, political and economic problems. That,

in the first instance lead to the collapse of the old rival or

foe and receded her from international politics and other

engagements. United States and her western allies, thus,

expanding influence over most part of Europe, South America,

Asia, Middle East and Africa. However, having gathered sufficient

political and economic stability, Russia, in the last few years,

is not only making foray into international politics but actually

challenging US economically, politically and militarily. US

centric world order is being challenged by Russia in the recent

past. Russia is making an endeavour to influence the contemporary

global events. With this prowess, Russia is on the way to shake

the power triad of USA which she had been enjoying since the end

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of Cold War. The tension between US and Russia was most notably

noticed during the conflicts in the recent global events. These

sparks of unrest are very similar to the ones during the period

of Cold War.

2. The present world order is undergoing a complex and

contradictory process of development. Recent developments even

show that the diminishing political, military and politico-

economic power of USA is forcing it to submit itself to UN rules

from time to time in order to achieve a consensus by the other

Security Council members on certain issues like Iraq,

Afghanistan, Iran, Lebanon, and Syria. This is where Russia’s

role in the world order has become particularly prominent. One

could even classify the current Iran nuclear crisis and crisis in

Syria as proxy wars between Russia and the United States. Proxy

wars are defined as conflicts between third parties who are

fighting on behalf of much more powerful nations. The Cold War

was filled with proxy wars in which the majority of the fighting

happened in foreign lands. This is not much different from the

wars in the Middle East. It seems that the civil war in Ukraine

is yet another one of the proxy wars of today. As Western

countries issue sanctions more and more against Russia, it may

seem that the Western countries are attempting to shape public

opinion against the Russian population. As similar action was

done during the Cold War, this had caused many people to worry

that the Ukraine crisis had re-sparked the instability. However,

now as the Ukraine crisis continues to boil, it is important to

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consider that the Cold War may never have officially ended.

Russian re-emergence is probably going to instigate a power

rivalry which would shake the US dominance and lead them both

towards a new Cold War era. Russian re-emergence might not create

a Bi-polar world like pre Cold War period but it may shift the

present world order from Uni-polar one dominated by USA to a

Multipolar one. In the multipolar world order .Fortunately or

unfortunately with the continuous re-elections of the same

leaders, the superpower countries frequently ended up supporting

different sides in many of the worldwide conflicts. Russia has

(once again) become a major power factor, it is a nuclear power,

a permanent member of the Security Council with power of veto,

and besides the US it is the only other state to maintain a

continuous presence in space. It exports oil, diamonds and other

natural and mineral resources. It has a developing economy and

agricultural industry where USA has obvious weaknesses.

3. As Russia is emerging again as passionately growing

superpower, new global order would replace the US dominance in

the global events. In the changed global order the world politics

will experience an obvious change which would affect the ever-

changing politico security scenario of the world. Emergence of

Russia would be a great challenge to the US dominated unipolar

world. Thereby, the problem of the research is to establish the

fact that the emerging Russia is going to be a challenge within

the US dominated unipolar world.

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PURPOSE/OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH

4. The specific objectives of the research are as follows:

a. To assess the probability of Russia to emerge again as

a superpower.

b. To determine how the emergence of Russia would

challenge the unilateral US dominance.

c. To determine the factors contributing Russian re-

emergence.

d. To assess how the re-emergence of Russia will influence

the relationship between Bangladesh and Russia.

RESEARCH QUESTION/S

5. Problem statement led to the conclusion that the research

effort should be designed around primary question and three

secondary questions:

PRIMARY QUESTION

a. How the Russian re-emergence is challenging unilateral US

dominance?

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SECONDARY QUESTIONS

a. How is Russian re-emergence affecting US dominance?

b. What factors contribute to Russia’s re-emergence as a

superpower?

c. How the re-emergence of Russia will influence the

relationship between Bangladesh and Russia?

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH

6. Since 1991, the USA is dominating almost all the global

events. As Russia in the recent past heavily influenced the world

politics sole dominance of USA is challenged. The latest Crimea

crisis has ignited the situation to the fullest. The present

politico economic situation of the world demands to evaluate the

impact of Russian emergence over the unilateral US dominance, as

well as the world politics. Analysis of the Russian influence

will help the reader to understand the present triad of power

game between Russia and USA. This research will make an endeavor

to find out how Russia is emerging as superpower again and will

it be able challenge the US hegemony. With the changed global

order how the developing country like Bangladesh is going to be

affected will also be discussed in the paper.

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REVIEW OF LITERATURE

7. List of Literatures Consulted. Following literatures

were consulted:

a. Russia: Re-Emerging Great Power (2007) Roger E. Kanet

‘Of Absolute Trust and Resolute Spirit: Reflections on our

Strategic Culture’ by Cdr S Misbahuddin Ahmad, student

officer of Armed Forces War Course, written on October 27,

2008.

8. Discussion on Findings of Review of Literatures. The

broad findings from the review of literatures are as follows:

a. In his edited book Russia: Re-Emerging Great Power

(2007) Roger E.Kanet argues that soon after the

disintegration of the Soviet Union the international system

is undergoing transition and fluctuation of power. Russia is

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demonstrating strong will to reestablish itself as a re-

emergent great power in the international system currently

under the domination of the United States. President Putin’s

assuming in power has reaffirmed the position that Russia is

destined to be a global superpower and President Putin’s

moves in international political arena are markedly

manifested by his actions. It is evident from the decisions

of President Putin in various international situations that

he has taken to re-position Russia as a global superpower as

the ‘number one’ political task during his leadership.

Different authors of book tried to answer the various

difficult questions of Russia’s road to global power. Kanet

presents his view as, “Russia will likely gain significant

influence in global affairs” and “has already made great

gains in reestablishing its role as an important global

actor” (p. 223). Moscow’s involvement beyond its immediate

territory (e.g. Abkhazia and South Ossetia) proves that

Putin’s leadership in Russia is not soft, rather bold.

b. In his presented paper entitled “Russia’s and the U. S.

Unilateralism in theWake of Multilateral Global Order:

Theory and Practice” (2010) at the 7th Pan-European

Conference of the ECPR Standing Group on International

Relations, Yuriy Nadtochey of Moscow University for the

Humanities argues that following the Cold War, Russia is

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demonstrating unilateral tendencies in its foreign policy

decisions. Kremlin is vigorously pursuing a multipolar world

transforming it from a unilateral one. He argues that Russia

is showing signs of borrowing elements of “hard realism” and

“conservatism” in projecting powers from the United States.

He concludes by saying that neither Russia nor the United

States is able to develop a foreign policy guideline that

can ensure global status quo. Respective guidelines adopted

by these countries are largely “selective engagement

strategies” rather than “unilateralism.”

c G. John Ikenberry, Micheal Mastanduno, and William C.

Wohlforth argue in their paper “Unipolarity, State Behavior,

and Systemic Consequences” (2009) that in the contemporary

international system American primacy is the most salient

feature of global distribution of capabilities. They put

forth that the current world is one superpower world. The

United States is at the centre of this superpower world

while other states rival with the United States in various

areas of politics. But the significance of the paper lies in

the fact that it has asked some of the most fundamental

questions of unipolarity. It has rightly inquired the

character of domination in a unipolar distribution. It then

argues that does unipolarity remove restraints and alter the

mix in favor of force. It rightly asks the question of rules

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and institutions that define unipolarity and how unipolar

state, manifest its capabilities into political influence.

The authors finally propose that “the surprising onset of

unipolarity encourages us to revisit questions about

how the international structure of capabilities shapes,

encourages, and constrains state behavior. In attempting to

make sense of this new type of global structure, we are

forced to grapple with the enduring issue of how the

powerful and the weak make their way in a changing

international environment” (p. 27).

d. Filippos Proedrou and Christos Fragkonikolopoulos argue

in their paper entitled “Russia’s re-emergence in the global

capitalist system: Globalizing or anti-globalizing force?”

(2008) that the political domain of globalisation denotes

diffusion of power centres. The authors viewed the re-

emergence of Russia as an anti-globalising force in both

economic and ideological domain. In their opinion Russia is

also strengthening the regionalist trend, aiming to “create

another regional economic zone with herself at the center”

(p. 17). They reiterated President Putin’s position that the

global system needs more balancing. They are in favour of

the view that “a multi-polar international system, evidently

with Russia forming the center of gravitation for one of the

poles, is a much more just system and will limit US abuse of

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power.” According to them, Russia aims to reduce US

influence in immediate periphery of Russia and to re-

establish influence in its near neighbourhood. Russia

systematically stands against US influence and acts as

counter-balancing force of globalisation. According to the

authors, Russia is working towards “a fragmented, regional-

based, global system.” They conclude by saying that

“Russia’s re-emergence as a great power in the global system

better illustrates, and conspicuously fortifies, trends

towards the regionalisation of the world.”

e. Christopher Layne is his widely acclaimed article on

the journal of International Security entitled “The Unipolar

Illusion: Why New Great Powers will Rise” argues that the

world becomes a unipolar world from a bipolar one after the

collapse of the Soviet Union. Using Neorealist theory he

explained the implications of unipolarity. He predicted that

unipolarity will wane within 2010 and take the form of

multipolarity. His central premise is: states balance

against hegemons. He views the unipolar world as not a terra

incognita. He argues that unipolar system will eventually dry

out as “the hegemons unbalanced power” will help surface

other new great powers by creating favorable environment for

them. Moreover, the resurgence of new great powers will

corrode “the hegemon’s relative power and ultimately, its

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preeminence” (p. 7). He concludes by outlining two grand

strategies: firstly, the management of transition from

unipolarity to multipolarity and secondly, the advancement

of American interest in that multipolar world.

f. Christopher Layne (2009), in “The Waning of U.S.

Hegemony—Myth or Reality?” pointed that US unipolarity has

survived without almost any formidable challenges as US had

been a benevolent hegemon. The unipolarity is always short-

lived and great powers balance against the aspiring

hegemons. Both China and India has potential and desire to

balance against declining USA and following the soft power

approach, which US is expected to carry on, but the

prospects of Russia in this regard is rather bleak due to

demographic, economic and governance challenges. But if it

can shun these challenges it may reclaim it old great power

status. Contested claims and hypotheses have been put

forwarded by the scholars whether the US will still continue

to be a hegemon.

g. Amitai Etzioni (2013) depicted in “The Devolution of

American Power” that the current world order ushered into a

realm of emerging powers and regional powers, and to suffice

the neorealist argument that unipolarity is always short-

lived, in which the American devolution has taken place. The

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relative distributional power of US is waning because of

economic and financial difficulties, polarisation, political

gridlock, two protracted war and decline of soft power,

while the potential power of the aspiring and regional

powers has increased not actual power. The increase of

actual power has taken place only for regional purposes

which will have global implication. Etzioni (2013) further

argues that only Russia has the potential, even though

limited and much smaller compared to other regional powers,

to challenge US interests both regionally and globally.

Though Russian capacity for acting as a major global power

has diminished it prefers to see itself as such. The robust

regional engagement is another area where Russia has

continued maintaining and is trying to maintain its

supremacy even though the power projection is no match for a

declining USA.

h. Elena Jurado (2008) argued, in “Russia’s role in a

multi-polar world: Between change and stability”, that the

changed political reality stresses the European Commission

and other international stakeholders to solve their

differences with the Russia. It is to be noted that Russia

is not in favour of complete reshuffle of the prevalent

international norms and institutions; rather it is in favour

of demanding Russian needs and interests be taken into

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account. Russia’s desire of re-emergence in the global power

spectrum and economic recovery has been sustained by its

exports of natural resources. Russia has a greater stake,

enjoyed great power status for a considerable period of time

and has the propensity and potential to be an emerging

power. Russia claimed to be the adherent of the version of

multilateralism which ensures economic and social

development of all stakeholders. The paper also argues that

Russia’s demands now circulating around putting more

multilateralism into the system and Russia should be taken

as equal partner in solving global problems.

j. Thomas Graham (2009) is of the view in an article

entitled “Resurgent Russia and U.S. Purposes” that Russia

has made headway and came back and reclaimed great power

status aggravated by global economic crisis and made its way

towards ‘a heady nationalism’. The current global order will

continue to be disordered only if a new equilibrium is

achieved. Russia has some formidable challenges to address

to be one to instigate the equilibrium. The steps require

massive overhauling in economy, health, education and

demographic sectors; those are yet subject to political

leadership. The intents to restore Russia’s great power

status and to influence the adjacent regions are top

priorities and the unipolarity of USA has been a challenge

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to this end. Russia always had the former soviet sphere of

influence in mind while taking the issues of national

interests into consideration. Russia can either develop

countervailing alliances or work closely with international

institutions where US has less access or work with USA

itself for increasing her sphere of influence on the basis

of not shared threats and interests.

k. The relations between USA and Russia often termed as

‘renewed Cold War’ or cold peace. In the changed

circumstances Russia can peacefully stand against the US

interests as the probability of wars between USA and Russia

is rather bleak. The states, at best, may reinvigorate their

old style of bipolar hostility to some extent, but not for a

long time. Today’s Russia has committed to the realities of

power structure and sought to return to the core of

international system by adopting its own style. Some claims

Russia is back and the bold incidents in the last decades

are manifestations that the world must amend.

RESEARCH HYPOTHESES

9. The United States is certainly the preeminent power in the

current global political order. Economically, technologically as

well as militarily the United States is still the most advanced

country and is bandwagoning the prevailing world order. However,

it is Russia which can be closely resembled to USA in terms of

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capability and power. Russia’s enormous geographical territory,

energy source, military capability, international involvement,

ability to carry out actions in United Nations Security Council,

strong leadership in some international forums, all support the

notion that Russia is the greatest superpower next to the United

States. It is true that other emerging powers with increasing

international involvement is rising, most notably China and

India, but Russia still holds the place of second most powerful

country in the world by all means. The disintegration of former

Soviet Union weakened the present day Russia, the successor of

Soviet Union, but failed to permanently cripple it. With strong

leadership by successive Presidents and engagement in numerous

international economic and political institutions, the time has

come for Russia to rightfully reclaim its position in the

evolving world order.

10. Hence, in the process of research this academic endeavour

seeks to test the following hypotheses:

a. Russian re-emergence will pose challenge to unilateral

US dominance.

b. Increasing involvement in global events will wane US

preeminence.

c. Russian re-emergence as a great power will bolster new

dimension in Bangladesh-Russia relations.

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RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY

11. The design to do the research will be followed as discussed

under:

a. What the Paper is All About . The study aims at

understanding the complex process of international politics

by way of looking at global struggle for power and positions

between USA and Russia. The contemporary global events are

dominated by US and allies where the relative power of USA

is declining. A gap is said to have emerged in the spectrum

of real politic, because of waning US power, which is

expected to be filled up by an emergent aspirant Russia. The

paper will try to underline this trend and prospects of the

latter to comeback at the fields of power politics by

mapping possible logical explanations supported by empirical

evidences.

b. Types and Sources of Data. Both qualitative and

quantitative data is used to support the central research

findings or to arrive at a logical conclusion with regard to

the hypothesis. Graphs, charts, illustrative figures etc.

are used in the paper to give the findings a good

foundation, to improve the argument of the study.

c. The study is a descriptive analysis. The major portion

of data will be collected from secondary literary works. The

data collected from primary sources are expected to derive

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from some of the interviews with the experts on global

politics.

d. Secondary sources, i.e. books, journals, newspapers,

magazines, will be extensively used to justify outcome and

analysis of the study.

e. All the materials to be used in the paper to support

the central argument will be properly cited using APA style

of referencing throughout the thesis and will be mentioned

accordingly.

f. The Purpose of Research. The observers of international

relations are sanguine in Russia to have potential to re-

emerge in the spectrum of power politics as a superpower.

The paper aims at analysing this potential by providing

explicit references to recent evidences and moves taken by

Russia. Scholars of international relations also claiming

that US unilateral dominance and role as hegemonic power is

declining and under this circumstance it is likely that

Russia will try to undermine the US dominance further and

will come forward to fill the power vacuum. Another proposed

objective of the paper is to determine different aspects

regarding how Russia would challenge the hegemonic dominance

of USA and its allies. The paper also aims at clarifying

what shapes the existing global order will take under

Russian re-emergence in the global political spectrum.

Lastly, the paper will try to explain how Russia would17

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redefine relations with the developing countries,

particularly Bangladesh, in the aftermath of changed global

order.

g. Area of Study. The area of the paper is limited in

understanding the existing global order characterized by

power politics of the major powers and superpowers. The

paper drew heavily on the realist and neorealist tradition

of international relations theory to put the hypothesis and

assisting research questions into test. The study area

confine within the global affairs which are extensively

dominated by major superpowers namely USA and aspirant

superpower Russia. The paper drew helps from the recent

incidents of Russian involvements in the global and regional

spectrum in understanding the renewed interests to challenge

the global and regional power of USA. To put the central

research finding a strong foundation the paper drew heavily

on the recent Russian interests and actions in the former

sphere of influence of USSR. The involvement of Russia in

the regional level politics will justify the potential of

Russian re-emergence. The research is also delimited in

outlining relations of Russia with the developing countries

and with a changed global paradigm. The paper aimed at

outlining the Russian responses at the events of paradigm

shifts of the global order.

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h. Method of Data Collection. According to

Travers, ‘there are five main methods a qualitative

researcher can employ in research: observation,

interviewing, ethnographic fieldworks, discourse analysis

and textual analysis’1.

j. One of these methods, interviews, will be conducted to

collect primary data for the purpose of analysis. The data

collected from interviews are the insights and experiences

of the experts on the issues related to international

politics.

k. For secondary data different national libraries for

books, journals and magazines were accessed and collected in

order to get insights and use accordingly to provide a firm

foundation to the answers of central research questions.

Apart from approaching physically at the libraries the

online journals, magazines, researches, e-books, experts’

opinions and articles published in different acknowledged

websites of think tanks were collected and used to enrich

the study.

l. The most of the data used in the study are of

qualitative in nature. Quantitative data used in the paper

was of relatively less significant in terms of ratio. The

paper is a descriptive analysis of logical answers of the

central and additional research questions.1 Max, Travers, Qualitative Research Through Case Studies, London: SAGE Publications, 2002

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Development of Research Report

21. Against this backdrop the research aims to organize the

whole process of decline of US unilateralism and regaining of

Russian superpower status in the following manner:

a. Chapter 1

b. Chapter 2 briefly contextualizes the Russia’s re-

emergence as a superpower in the world stage.

c. Chapter 3 focuses on the collapse of the Soviet Union

and emergence of Russian Federation.

d. Chapter 4 assesses the prospect of Russia’s re-emergence

as a superpower keeping in mind some crucial recent events

including Georgia conflict, Crimean crisis, Sino-Russia gas

deal, the strategic role of Shanghai Cooperation

Organization and prospect of BRICS as an international

actor in the international system.

e. Chapter 5 investigates what factors contribute to claim

Russia’s re-emergence as a superpower. It puts some light

on, among others, how Russia is handling the West enforced

economic sanctions over Crimean crisis, an autopsy of

Russian economy and how Russia is gradually developing its20

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bilateral relations with developing countries to garner

more support for its international status.

f. Chapter 6 describes the concept of unipolarity and cites

numerous examples of decay of US dominance to bolster the

claim that US supremacy is steadily descending. This

chapter also highlights several other dimensions, such as

weak economy of the USA, rise of China, rise of new

emerging economies (South Korea, Japan, Southeast Asian

states), German supremacy in Europe, US tangle over Afghan

War, severe burden of Iraq War upon the US economy,

increasing competition with Russia, Russian opposition to

Syrian civil war and granting asylum to Edward Snowden to

Russia in detail.

g. Chapter 7 advances case by case by illustrating that a

resurgent Russia will pose numerous challenges to US

unilateral dominance. This chapter also touches upon

Russia’s involvement in Middle East politics, closer

Russia-China ties, Donetsk crisis, Russia’s strong foothold

in Black Sea, Belarus and Kazakhstan coming closer to

Russia and Russia’s joint naval exercise with China in East

China Sea to name a few.

h. Chapter 8 assesses the potentials of stronger Russia-

Bangladesh bilateral relations in areas of nuclear energy,

offshore energy exploration and extraction, military

hardware purchase, bilateral trade, technology exchange,

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education and cultural exchange and in the field of public

health.

j. Finally, Chapter 9 concludes by summarizing the entire

discussion.

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