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RE EMERGENCE OF RUSSIA: CHALLENGES WITHIN US-DOMINATED UNIPOLAR WORLD CHAPTER-I INTRODUCTION
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Transcript of RE EMERGENCE OF RUSSIA: CHALLENGES WITHIN US-DOMINATED UNIPOLAR WORLD CHAPTER-I INTRODUCTION
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RE EMERGENCE OF RUSSIA: CHALLENGES WITHIN US-DOMINATED
UNIPOLAR WORLD
CHAPTER- I
INTRODUCTION
PROBLEM STATEMENT
1. For more than two decades after the collapse of Soviet
Union, iron curtain of Cold War has fallen down, and United
States of America emerged as the dominant world power. USSR was
preoccupied by domestic, political and economic problems. That,
in the first instance lead to the collapse of the old rival or
foe and receded her from international politics and other
engagements. United States and her western allies, thus,
expanding influence over most part of Europe, South America,
Asia, Middle East and Africa. However, having gathered sufficient
political and economic stability, Russia, in the last few years,
is not only making foray into international politics but actually
challenging US economically, politically and militarily. US
centric world order is being challenged by Russia in the recent
past. Russia is making an endeavour to influence the contemporary
global events. With this prowess, Russia is on the way to shake
the power triad of USA which she had been enjoying since the end
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of Cold War. The tension between US and Russia was most notably
noticed during the conflicts in the recent global events. These
sparks of unrest are very similar to the ones during the period
of Cold War.
2. The present world order is undergoing a complex and
contradictory process of development. Recent developments even
show that the diminishing political, military and politico-
economic power of USA is forcing it to submit itself to UN rules
from time to time in order to achieve a consensus by the other
Security Council members on certain issues like Iraq,
Afghanistan, Iran, Lebanon, and Syria. This is where Russia’s
role in the world order has become particularly prominent. One
could even classify the current Iran nuclear crisis and crisis in
Syria as proxy wars between Russia and the United States. Proxy
wars are defined as conflicts between third parties who are
fighting on behalf of much more powerful nations. The Cold War
was filled with proxy wars in which the majority of the fighting
happened in foreign lands. This is not much different from the
wars in the Middle East. It seems that the civil war in Ukraine
is yet another one of the proxy wars of today. As Western
countries issue sanctions more and more against Russia, it may
seem that the Western countries are attempting to shape public
opinion against the Russian population. As similar action was
done during the Cold War, this had caused many people to worry
that the Ukraine crisis had re-sparked the instability. However,
now as the Ukraine crisis continues to boil, it is important to
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consider that the Cold War may never have officially ended.
Russian re-emergence is probably going to instigate a power
rivalry which would shake the US dominance and lead them both
towards a new Cold War era. Russian re-emergence might not create
a Bi-polar world like pre Cold War period but it may shift the
present world order from Uni-polar one dominated by USA to a
Multipolar one. In the multipolar world order .Fortunately or
unfortunately with the continuous re-elections of the same
leaders, the superpower countries frequently ended up supporting
different sides in many of the worldwide conflicts. Russia has
(once again) become a major power factor, it is a nuclear power,
a permanent member of the Security Council with power of veto,
and besides the US it is the only other state to maintain a
continuous presence in space. It exports oil, diamonds and other
natural and mineral resources. It has a developing economy and
agricultural industry where USA has obvious weaknesses.
3. As Russia is emerging again as passionately growing
superpower, new global order would replace the US dominance in
the global events. In the changed global order the world politics
will experience an obvious change which would affect the ever-
changing politico security scenario of the world. Emergence of
Russia would be a great challenge to the US dominated unipolar
world. Thereby, the problem of the research is to establish the
fact that the emerging Russia is going to be a challenge within
the US dominated unipolar world.
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PURPOSE/OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH
4. The specific objectives of the research are as follows:
a. To assess the probability of Russia to emerge again as
a superpower.
b. To determine how the emergence of Russia would
challenge the unilateral US dominance.
c. To determine the factors contributing Russian re-
emergence.
d. To assess how the re-emergence of Russia will influence
the relationship between Bangladesh and Russia.
RESEARCH QUESTION/S
5. Problem statement led to the conclusion that the research
effort should be designed around primary question and three
secondary questions:
PRIMARY QUESTION
a. How the Russian re-emergence is challenging unilateral US
dominance?
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SECONDARY QUESTIONS
a. How is Russian re-emergence affecting US dominance?
b. What factors contribute to Russia’s re-emergence as a
superpower?
c. How the re-emergence of Russia will influence the
relationship between Bangladesh and Russia?
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH
6. Since 1991, the USA is dominating almost all the global
events. As Russia in the recent past heavily influenced the world
politics sole dominance of USA is challenged. The latest Crimea
crisis has ignited the situation to the fullest. The present
politico economic situation of the world demands to evaluate the
impact of Russian emergence over the unilateral US dominance, as
well as the world politics. Analysis of the Russian influence
will help the reader to understand the present triad of power
game between Russia and USA. This research will make an endeavor
to find out how Russia is emerging as superpower again and will
it be able challenge the US hegemony. With the changed global
order how the developing country like Bangladesh is going to be
affected will also be discussed in the paper.
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REVIEW OF LITERATURE
7. List of Literatures Consulted. Following literatures
were consulted:
a. Russia: Re-Emerging Great Power (2007) Roger E. Kanet
‘Of Absolute Trust and Resolute Spirit: Reflections on our
Strategic Culture’ by Cdr S Misbahuddin Ahmad, student
officer of Armed Forces War Course, written on October 27,
2008.
8. Discussion on Findings of Review of Literatures. The
broad findings from the review of literatures are as follows:
a. In his edited book Russia: Re-Emerging Great Power
(2007) Roger E.Kanet argues that soon after the
disintegration of the Soviet Union the international system
is undergoing transition and fluctuation of power. Russia is
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demonstrating strong will to reestablish itself as a re-
emergent great power in the international system currently
under the domination of the United States. President Putin’s
assuming in power has reaffirmed the position that Russia is
destined to be a global superpower and President Putin’s
moves in international political arena are markedly
manifested by his actions. It is evident from the decisions
of President Putin in various international situations that
he has taken to re-position Russia as a global superpower as
the ‘number one’ political task during his leadership.
Different authors of book tried to answer the various
difficult questions of Russia’s road to global power. Kanet
presents his view as, “Russia will likely gain significant
influence in global affairs” and “has already made great
gains in reestablishing its role as an important global
actor” (p. 223). Moscow’s involvement beyond its immediate
territory (e.g. Abkhazia and South Ossetia) proves that
Putin’s leadership in Russia is not soft, rather bold.
b. In his presented paper entitled “Russia’s and the U. S.
Unilateralism in theWake of Multilateral Global Order:
Theory and Practice” (2010) at the 7th Pan-European
Conference of the ECPR Standing Group on International
Relations, Yuriy Nadtochey of Moscow University for the
Humanities argues that following the Cold War, Russia is
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demonstrating unilateral tendencies in its foreign policy
decisions. Kremlin is vigorously pursuing a multipolar world
transforming it from a unilateral one. He argues that Russia
is showing signs of borrowing elements of “hard realism” and
“conservatism” in projecting powers from the United States.
He concludes by saying that neither Russia nor the United
States is able to develop a foreign policy guideline that
can ensure global status quo. Respective guidelines adopted
by these countries are largely “selective engagement
strategies” rather than “unilateralism.”
c G. John Ikenberry, Micheal Mastanduno, and William C.
Wohlforth argue in their paper “Unipolarity, State Behavior,
and Systemic Consequences” (2009) that in the contemporary
international system American primacy is the most salient
feature of global distribution of capabilities. They put
forth that the current world is one superpower world. The
United States is at the centre of this superpower world
while other states rival with the United States in various
areas of politics. But the significance of the paper lies in
the fact that it has asked some of the most fundamental
questions of unipolarity. It has rightly inquired the
character of domination in a unipolar distribution. It then
argues that does unipolarity remove restraints and alter the
mix in favor of force. It rightly asks the question of rules
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and institutions that define unipolarity and how unipolar
state, manifest its capabilities into political influence.
The authors finally propose that “the surprising onset of
unipolarity encourages us to revisit questions about
how the international structure of capabilities shapes,
encourages, and constrains state behavior. In attempting to
make sense of this new type of global structure, we are
forced to grapple with the enduring issue of how the
powerful and the weak make their way in a changing
international environment” (p. 27).
d. Filippos Proedrou and Christos Fragkonikolopoulos argue
in their paper entitled “Russia’s re-emergence in the global
capitalist system: Globalizing or anti-globalizing force?”
(2008) that the political domain of globalisation denotes
diffusion of power centres. The authors viewed the re-
emergence of Russia as an anti-globalising force in both
economic and ideological domain. In their opinion Russia is
also strengthening the regionalist trend, aiming to “create
another regional economic zone with herself at the center”
(p. 17). They reiterated President Putin’s position that the
global system needs more balancing. They are in favour of
the view that “a multi-polar international system, evidently
with Russia forming the center of gravitation for one of the
poles, is a much more just system and will limit US abuse of
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power.” According to them, Russia aims to reduce US
influence in immediate periphery of Russia and to re-
establish influence in its near neighbourhood. Russia
systematically stands against US influence and acts as
counter-balancing force of globalisation. According to the
authors, Russia is working towards “a fragmented, regional-
based, global system.” They conclude by saying that
“Russia’s re-emergence as a great power in the global system
better illustrates, and conspicuously fortifies, trends
towards the regionalisation of the world.”
e. Christopher Layne is his widely acclaimed article on
the journal of International Security entitled “The Unipolar
Illusion: Why New Great Powers will Rise” argues that the
world becomes a unipolar world from a bipolar one after the
collapse of the Soviet Union. Using Neorealist theory he
explained the implications of unipolarity. He predicted that
unipolarity will wane within 2010 and take the form of
multipolarity. His central premise is: states balance
against hegemons. He views the unipolar world as not a terra
incognita. He argues that unipolar system will eventually dry
out as “the hegemons unbalanced power” will help surface
other new great powers by creating favorable environment for
them. Moreover, the resurgence of new great powers will
corrode “the hegemon’s relative power and ultimately, its
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preeminence” (p. 7). He concludes by outlining two grand
strategies: firstly, the management of transition from
unipolarity to multipolarity and secondly, the advancement
of American interest in that multipolar world.
f. Christopher Layne (2009), in “The Waning of U.S.
Hegemony—Myth or Reality?” pointed that US unipolarity has
survived without almost any formidable challenges as US had
been a benevolent hegemon. The unipolarity is always short-
lived and great powers balance against the aspiring
hegemons. Both China and India has potential and desire to
balance against declining USA and following the soft power
approach, which US is expected to carry on, but the
prospects of Russia in this regard is rather bleak due to
demographic, economic and governance challenges. But if it
can shun these challenges it may reclaim it old great power
status. Contested claims and hypotheses have been put
forwarded by the scholars whether the US will still continue
to be a hegemon.
g. Amitai Etzioni (2013) depicted in “The Devolution of
American Power” that the current world order ushered into a
realm of emerging powers and regional powers, and to suffice
the neorealist argument that unipolarity is always short-
lived, in which the American devolution has taken place. The
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relative distributional power of US is waning because of
economic and financial difficulties, polarisation, political
gridlock, two protracted war and decline of soft power,
while the potential power of the aspiring and regional
powers has increased not actual power. The increase of
actual power has taken place only for regional purposes
which will have global implication. Etzioni (2013) further
argues that only Russia has the potential, even though
limited and much smaller compared to other regional powers,
to challenge US interests both regionally and globally.
Though Russian capacity for acting as a major global power
has diminished it prefers to see itself as such. The robust
regional engagement is another area where Russia has
continued maintaining and is trying to maintain its
supremacy even though the power projection is no match for a
declining USA.
h. Elena Jurado (2008) argued, in “Russia’s role in a
multi-polar world: Between change and stability”, that the
changed political reality stresses the European Commission
and other international stakeholders to solve their
differences with the Russia. It is to be noted that Russia
is not in favour of complete reshuffle of the prevalent
international norms and institutions; rather it is in favour
of demanding Russian needs and interests be taken into
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account. Russia’s desire of re-emergence in the global power
spectrum and economic recovery has been sustained by its
exports of natural resources. Russia has a greater stake,
enjoyed great power status for a considerable period of time
and has the propensity and potential to be an emerging
power. Russia claimed to be the adherent of the version of
multilateralism which ensures economic and social
development of all stakeholders. The paper also argues that
Russia’s demands now circulating around putting more
multilateralism into the system and Russia should be taken
as equal partner in solving global problems.
j. Thomas Graham (2009) is of the view in an article
entitled “Resurgent Russia and U.S. Purposes” that Russia
has made headway and came back and reclaimed great power
status aggravated by global economic crisis and made its way
towards ‘a heady nationalism’. The current global order will
continue to be disordered only if a new equilibrium is
achieved. Russia has some formidable challenges to address
to be one to instigate the equilibrium. The steps require
massive overhauling in economy, health, education and
demographic sectors; those are yet subject to political
leadership. The intents to restore Russia’s great power
status and to influence the adjacent regions are top
priorities and the unipolarity of USA has been a challenge
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to this end. Russia always had the former soviet sphere of
influence in mind while taking the issues of national
interests into consideration. Russia can either develop
countervailing alliances or work closely with international
institutions where US has less access or work with USA
itself for increasing her sphere of influence on the basis
of not shared threats and interests.
k. The relations between USA and Russia often termed as
‘renewed Cold War’ or cold peace. In the changed
circumstances Russia can peacefully stand against the US
interests as the probability of wars between USA and Russia
is rather bleak. The states, at best, may reinvigorate their
old style of bipolar hostility to some extent, but not for a
long time. Today’s Russia has committed to the realities of
power structure and sought to return to the core of
international system by adopting its own style. Some claims
Russia is back and the bold incidents in the last decades
are manifestations that the world must amend.
RESEARCH HYPOTHESES
9. The United States is certainly the preeminent power in the
current global political order. Economically, technologically as
well as militarily the United States is still the most advanced
country and is bandwagoning the prevailing world order. However,
it is Russia which can be closely resembled to USA in terms of
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capability and power. Russia’s enormous geographical territory,
energy source, military capability, international involvement,
ability to carry out actions in United Nations Security Council,
strong leadership in some international forums, all support the
notion that Russia is the greatest superpower next to the United
States. It is true that other emerging powers with increasing
international involvement is rising, most notably China and
India, but Russia still holds the place of second most powerful
country in the world by all means. The disintegration of former
Soviet Union weakened the present day Russia, the successor of
Soviet Union, but failed to permanently cripple it. With strong
leadership by successive Presidents and engagement in numerous
international economic and political institutions, the time has
come for Russia to rightfully reclaim its position in the
evolving world order.
10. Hence, in the process of research this academic endeavour
seeks to test the following hypotheses:
a. Russian re-emergence will pose challenge to unilateral
US dominance.
b. Increasing involvement in global events will wane US
preeminence.
c. Russian re-emergence as a great power will bolster new
dimension in Bangladesh-Russia relations.
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RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY
11. The design to do the research will be followed as discussed
under:
a. What the Paper is All About . The study aims at
understanding the complex process of international politics
by way of looking at global struggle for power and positions
between USA and Russia. The contemporary global events are
dominated by US and allies where the relative power of USA
is declining. A gap is said to have emerged in the spectrum
of real politic, because of waning US power, which is
expected to be filled up by an emergent aspirant Russia. The
paper will try to underline this trend and prospects of the
latter to comeback at the fields of power politics by
mapping possible logical explanations supported by empirical
evidences.
b. Types and Sources of Data. Both qualitative and
quantitative data is used to support the central research
findings or to arrive at a logical conclusion with regard to
the hypothesis. Graphs, charts, illustrative figures etc.
are used in the paper to give the findings a good
foundation, to improve the argument of the study.
c. The study is a descriptive analysis. The major portion
of data will be collected from secondary literary works. The
data collected from primary sources are expected to derive
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from some of the interviews with the experts on global
politics.
d. Secondary sources, i.e. books, journals, newspapers,
magazines, will be extensively used to justify outcome and
analysis of the study.
e. All the materials to be used in the paper to support
the central argument will be properly cited using APA style
of referencing throughout the thesis and will be mentioned
accordingly.
f. The Purpose of Research. The observers of international
relations are sanguine in Russia to have potential to re-
emerge in the spectrum of power politics as a superpower.
The paper aims at analysing this potential by providing
explicit references to recent evidences and moves taken by
Russia. Scholars of international relations also claiming
that US unilateral dominance and role as hegemonic power is
declining and under this circumstance it is likely that
Russia will try to undermine the US dominance further and
will come forward to fill the power vacuum. Another proposed
objective of the paper is to determine different aspects
regarding how Russia would challenge the hegemonic dominance
of USA and its allies. The paper also aims at clarifying
what shapes the existing global order will take under
Russian re-emergence in the global political spectrum.
Lastly, the paper will try to explain how Russia would17
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redefine relations with the developing countries,
particularly Bangladesh, in the aftermath of changed global
order.
g. Area of Study. The area of the paper is limited in
understanding the existing global order characterized by
power politics of the major powers and superpowers. The
paper drew heavily on the realist and neorealist tradition
of international relations theory to put the hypothesis and
assisting research questions into test. The study area
confine within the global affairs which are extensively
dominated by major superpowers namely USA and aspirant
superpower Russia. The paper drew helps from the recent
incidents of Russian involvements in the global and regional
spectrum in understanding the renewed interests to challenge
the global and regional power of USA. To put the central
research finding a strong foundation the paper drew heavily
on the recent Russian interests and actions in the former
sphere of influence of USSR. The involvement of Russia in
the regional level politics will justify the potential of
Russian re-emergence. The research is also delimited in
outlining relations of Russia with the developing countries
and with a changed global paradigm. The paper aimed at
outlining the Russian responses at the events of paradigm
shifts of the global order.
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h. Method of Data Collection. According to
Travers, ‘there are five main methods a qualitative
researcher can employ in research: observation,
interviewing, ethnographic fieldworks, discourse analysis
and textual analysis’1.
j. One of these methods, interviews, will be conducted to
collect primary data for the purpose of analysis. The data
collected from interviews are the insights and experiences
of the experts on the issues related to international
politics.
k. For secondary data different national libraries for
books, journals and magazines were accessed and collected in
order to get insights and use accordingly to provide a firm
foundation to the answers of central research questions.
Apart from approaching physically at the libraries the
online journals, magazines, researches, e-books, experts’
opinions and articles published in different acknowledged
websites of think tanks were collected and used to enrich
the study.
l. The most of the data used in the study are of
qualitative in nature. Quantitative data used in the paper
was of relatively less significant in terms of ratio. The
paper is a descriptive analysis of logical answers of the
central and additional research questions.1 Max, Travers, Qualitative Research Through Case Studies, London: SAGE Publications, 2002
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Development of Research Report
21. Against this backdrop the research aims to organize the
whole process of decline of US unilateralism and regaining of
Russian superpower status in the following manner:
a. Chapter 1
b. Chapter 2 briefly contextualizes the Russia’s re-
emergence as a superpower in the world stage.
c. Chapter 3 focuses on the collapse of the Soviet Union
and emergence of Russian Federation.
d. Chapter 4 assesses the prospect of Russia’s re-emergence
as a superpower keeping in mind some crucial recent events
including Georgia conflict, Crimean crisis, Sino-Russia gas
deal, the strategic role of Shanghai Cooperation
Organization and prospect of BRICS as an international
actor in the international system.
e. Chapter 5 investigates what factors contribute to claim
Russia’s re-emergence as a superpower. It puts some light
on, among others, how Russia is handling the West enforced
economic sanctions over Crimean crisis, an autopsy of
Russian economy and how Russia is gradually developing its20
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bilateral relations with developing countries to garner
more support for its international status.
f. Chapter 6 describes the concept of unipolarity and cites
numerous examples of decay of US dominance to bolster the
claim that US supremacy is steadily descending. This
chapter also highlights several other dimensions, such as
weak economy of the USA, rise of China, rise of new
emerging economies (South Korea, Japan, Southeast Asian
states), German supremacy in Europe, US tangle over Afghan
War, severe burden of Iraq War upon the US economy,
increasing competition with Russia, Russian opposition to
Syrian civil war and granting asylum to Edward Snowden to
Russia in detail.
g. Chapter 7 advances case by case by illustrating that a
resurgent Russia will pose numerous challenges to US
unilateral dominance. This chapter also touches upon
Russia’s involvement in Middle East politics, closer
Russia-China ties, Donetsk crisis, Russia’s strong foothold
in Black Sea, Belarus and Kazakhstan coming closer to
Russia and Russia’s joint naval exercise with China in East
China Sea to name a few.
h. Chapter 8 assesses the potentials of stronger Russia-
Bangladesh bilateral relations in areas of nuclear energy,
offshore energy exploration and extraction, military
hardware purchase, bilateral trade, technology exchange,
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