Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

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Prepared by:

Gauss International Consulting S.L.

María José López Blanco

Juan Luis Martín Ortega

Ioannis Sempos

With contributions from national experts:

Muzaffar Shodmonov

Firuz Saidov

Anvar Khamidov

Zafar Abdulhamidzoda

The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of UNDP. UNDP cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.

Copyright © UNDP 2020

United Nations Development Programme Tajikistan Ayni Street 39, Dushanbe, Tajikistan +992 44 600 5600

@UNDP_Tajikistan / @UNDPTJK / https://www.tj.undp.org

UNDP Tajikistan


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Table of content

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................... 8

SECTION 1 - INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 8

1. BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................. 8

2. OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE OF THIS ASSIGNMENT .......................................................................... 9

3. STRUCTURE OF THE DOCUMENT ............................................................................................ 9

SECTION 2 - OVERALL METHODOLOGY ............................................................................... 10

1. APPROACH .................................................................................................................... 10

2. METHODOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES ........................................................................................... 10

SECTION 3 - CURRENT GHG EMISSION PROFILE ................................................................... 14

SECTION 4 - WITHOUT MEASURES SCENARIO ..................................................................... 18

1. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH ........................................................................................... 19

1.1. PROJECTION OF ACTIVITY DATA ................................................................................................ 20

1.2. PROJECTION OF EMISSION FACTORS .......................................................................................... 22

1.3. PROJECTION OF EMISSION ....................................................................................................... 22

2. METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS BY SECTOR ...................................................................... 23

2.1. ENERGY ................................................................................................................................ 23

1A1 Fuel combustion in Energy industries .................................................................................. 23

1A2 Fuel combustion in Manufacturing industries and construction ......................................... 23

1A3 Fuel combustion in transport ............................................................................................... 23

1A4 Other sectors ....................................................................................................................... 24

1B Fugitive emissions .................................................................................................................. 24

2.2. IPPU ................................................................................................................................... 24


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2A Mineral Industry ..................................................................................................................... 24

2C3 Aluminium production ......................................................................................................... 25

2F Product Uses as Substitutes for Ozone Depleting Substances ............................................... 25

2.3. AFOLU ................................................................................................................................ 25

3A1 Enteric fermentation and 3A2 Manure Management Fuel combustion in Energy industries

..................................................................................................................................................... 25

3B1 Forest land ........................................................................................................................... 26

3B2 Cropland and 3B3 Grassland ................................................................................................ 26

3C3 Urea application, 3C4 Direct N2O Emissions from managed soils and 3C6 Indirect N2O

Emissions from manure management ........................................................................................ 26

3C7 Rice cultivation ..................................................................................................................... 26

2.4. WASTE................................................................................................................................. 26

4A Solid Waste Disposal .............................................................................................................. 26

4C Incineration and open burning of waste ................................................................................ 27

4D Wastewater treatment and discharge ................................................................................... 27

SECTION 5 - IMPLEMENTED AND ADOPTED MITIGATION ACTIONS ...................................... 28

1. ENERGY ........................................................................................................................ 28

1.1. REGIONAL POWER TRANSMISSION PROJECT ............................................................................... 28

1.2. GREEN ENERGY FACILITY PROJECT ............................................................................................ 31

1.3. OBIGARM-NUROBOD ROAD PROJECT........................................................................................ 33

1.4. KHATLON ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION PROJECT ............................................................................ 35

1.5. KHATLON PUBLIC TRANSPORT .................................................................................................. 36

1.6. QAIROKKUM HPP CLIMATE RESILIENCE UPGRADE ...................................................................... 38

1.7. GOLOVNAYA 240-MEGAWATT HYDROPOWER PLANT REHABILITATION PROJECT .............................. 40


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1.8. KULYAB-KHALAIKUMB ROAD ................................................................................................... 42

1.9. RECONSTRUCTION OF RAVSHAN ELECTRICITY SUBSTATION PROJECT (ISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK)... 43

1.10. REGIONAL POWER TRANSMISSION .......................................................................................... 45

1.11. WHOLESALE METERING AND TRANSMISSION............................................................................ 47

1.12. REGIONAL: PROMOTING LOW-CARBON DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ASIA REGIONAL ECONOMIC

COOPERATION PROGRAM CITIES ........................................................................................................ 48

1.13. REGIONAL CORRIDOR 1 ........................................................................................................ 49



1.16. REGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRANSPORT PROJECT ........................................................................... 52

1.17. NUREK HYDROPOWER REHABILITATION PROJECT ...................................................................... 53

1.18. DUSHANBE PUBLIC TRANSPORT ............................................................................................. 54

1.19. DUSHANBE PUBLIC TRANSPORT – KHUJAND BUSES .................................................................... 56

1.20. RURAL ELECTRIFICATION PROJECT .......................................................................................... 58

1.21. SUGD – ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION PROJECT ............................................................................. 60

1.22. LONG-TERM SMALL HYDRO POWER PLANT CONSTRUCTION PROGRAM ........................................ 61

1.23. SUSTAINABLE FUELS ............................................................................................................. 63

2. INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE ........................................................................... 65

3. AFOLU ........................................................................................................................ 66

3.1. LIVESTOCK AND PASTURE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ...................................................................... 66

3.2. LIVESTOCK AND PASTURE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT II ................................................................... 70

3.3. PROJECT "SUPPORT TO AGRICULTURE IN THE COMMUNITY" ......................................................... 73

3.4. TAJIKISTAN AGRICULTURE COMMERCIALIZATION PROJECT ............................................................ 75

3.5. DANGARA VALLEY IRRIGATION PROJECT, PHASE III ...................................................................... 77


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3.6. TAJIKISTAN SECOND PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AND WATER RESOURCES

MANAGEMENT PROJECT ................................................................................................................... 80

3.7. PROJECT "RECONSTRUCTION OF THE IRRIGATION SYSTEM AND IMPROVEMENT OF ITS MANAGEMENT IN

THE ZERAFSHAN RIVER BASIN" ........................................................................................................... 82

3.8. BUILDING CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN THE PYANJ RIVER BASIN PROJECT .............................................. 84

3.9. CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION PROGRAM FOR ARAL SEA BASIN CAMP4ASB ................... 86

3.10. CLIMATE ADAPTATION THROUGH SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY IN IMPORTANT RIVER CATCHMENT AREAS IN

TAJIKISTAN (CAFT) .......................................................................................................................... 88

3.11. IMPROVEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN KHATLON REGION PROJECT .................... 90

3.12. THE AGRICULTURE REFORM PROGRAMME OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN FOR 2012-2020 .......... 92

3.13. PROGRAMME OF DEVELOPMENT OF BIOTECHNOLOGY OF CATTLE IN THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN ..... 94

3.14. PASTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN ........................................... 96

3.15. HORTICULTURE AND GRAPEVINE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM........................................................ 99

3.16. STATE TARGET PROGRAM FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TRANSPORT COMPLEX OF THE REPUBLIC OF

TAJIKISTAN ................................................................................................................................... 102

3.17. DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM FOR SEED PRODUCTION OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN ..................... 104

3.18. COMPREHENSIVE LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ............................................................ 107

3.19. NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGY FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030 ..................... 112

3.20. THE STATE PROGRAM FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW IRRIGATED LAND AND THE RESTORATION OF

LAND THAT HAS BEEN ABANDONED FROM AGRICULTURAL CIRCULATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN ...... 114

4. WASTE ....................................................................................................................... 116

4.1. SECOND DUSHANBE WATER SUPPLY PROJECT .......................................................................... 116

4.2. DUSHANBE WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION PROJECT .............................................................. 118

4.3. KJUHAND WATER SUPPLY IMPROVEMENT PROGRAMME (PHASE III) ............................................ 120

4.4. NUREK WATER AND WASTEWATER PROJECT ............................................................................ 123

4.5. KULOB WATER AND WASTEWATER PROJECT ............................................................................ 125


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4.6. VAHDAT SOLID WASTE PROJECT............................................................................................. 127

4.7. YAVAN SOLID WASTE SUB-PROJECT ........................................................................................ 129

4.8. KULOB SOLID WASTE SUB-PROJECT ........................................................................................ 131

4.9. KHUJAND SOLID WASTE SUB-PROJECT .................................................................................... 133

4.10. RURAL WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION PROJECT .................................................................. 135

4.11. KHOROG SOLID WASTE SUB-PROJECT ................................................................................... 136

4.12. TURSUN-ZADE SOLID WASTE ............................................................................................... 138

4.13. KURGAN-TYUBE SOLID WASTE ............................................................................................. 140

SECTION 6 - PLANNED MITIGATION ACTIONS ................................................................... 142

1. ENERGY ...................................................................................................................... 142

1.1. ROGUN HYDROPOWER PLANT ............................................................................................... 142

1.2. EBRD SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FINANCING FACILITIES .................................................................. 144

1.3. SCALING UP HYDROPOWER SECTOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE ........................................................... 146

1.4. INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE STATE AGENCY FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGY OF TAJIKISTAN ..... 148

2. INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE ......................................................................... 150

3. AFOLU ...................................................................................................................... 151

3.1. FOREST SECTOR DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR 2016-2030 ...................................................... 151

3.2. CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION PROGRAM FOR THE ARAL SEA BASIN .............................. 154

3.3. BUILDING CLIMATE RESILIENCE OF VULNERABLE AND FOOD INSECURE COMMUNITIES THROUGH

CAPACITY STRENGTHENING AND LIVELIHOOD DIVERSIFICATION IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF TAJIKISTAN . 156

4. WASTE ....................................................................................................................... 158

SECTION 7 - MITIGATION OPTIONS ................................................................................... 159

1. ENERGY ...................................................................................................................... 159

1.1. ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN THE RESIDENTIAL/COMMERCIAL/INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR ............................. 159


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1.2. REDUCTION OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN ALUMINIUM PRODUCTION...................................... 161

2. INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE ......................................................................... 164

2.1. REDUCTION OF CLINKER CONTENT OF CEMENT .......................................................................... 164

2.2. PHASE DOWN OF F-GASES ..................................................................................................... 166

3. AFOLU ...................................................................................................................... 167

3.1. ENHANCING REMOVALS BY CREATING NEW FRUIT ORCHARDS AND VINEYARDS ................................ 167

3.2. AGROFORESTRY AND / OR SILVO-PASTORAL SYSTEMS ................................................................. 169

3.3. MINIMAL OR NO TILLAGE/RESIDUE MANAGEMENT .................................................................... 171

3.4. IMPROVED AGRONOMIC PRACTICES THROUGH THE CONTINUATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM FOR

SEED PRODUCTION OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN ............................................................................ 173

3.5. LIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT THROUGH THE CONTINUATION OF THE COMPREHENSIVE LIVESTOCK

DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM................................................................................................................ 176

3.6. FAT SUPPLEMENTATION IN RUMINANTS’ DIETS .......................................................................... 178

3.7. RICE CULTIVATION MANAGEMENT .......................................................................................... 180

3.8. CONTINUATION OF THE PASTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME AFTER 2020................................. 182

4. WASTE ....................................................................................................................... 184

4.1. REDUCTION OF OPEN BURNING .............................................................................................. 184

4.2. IMPROVED WASTEWATER MANAGEMENT PRACTICES .................................................................. 186

SECTION 8- WITH EXISTING MEASURES SCENARIO ............................................................ 189

SECTION 9 - WITH ADDITIONAL MEASURES SCENARIO ...................................................... 191

ANALYSIS OF THE FUTURE GHG EMISSION PROFILE AND MITIGATION OPTIONS AVAILABLE...................... 191

SECTION 10 – SUMMARY OF RESULTS .............................................................................. 194

SECTION 11 – SENSITIVITY OF THE ESTIMATES .................................................................. 196

SECTION 12 - CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................. 199


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Executive Summary

Introduction

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an

international treaty whose overall objective is to “stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG)

concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic

interference”1 with the Earth’s climate system. Tajikistan became a Party to the UNFCCC

in 1992 and ratified the Convention on October 31, 1994.

The commitment for Parties to communicate to the Conference of Parties (COP)

information relating to the implementation of the Convention is guided by Articles 4 and

12 of the UNFCCC.

In accordance with Article 4, paragraph 1, each Party, taking into account their common

but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development

priorities, objectives and circumstances, shall, among other things, formulate,

implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional

programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change, and measures to facilitate

adequate adaptation to climate change.

Further, in accordance with Article 12, paragraph 1, each Party shall communicate to the

COP, through the secretariat in the form of a national communication, the following

elements of information:

a) A national inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of

all GHGs not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, to the extent its capacities permit, using

comparable methodologies to be promoted and agreed upon by the COP;

b) A general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement the

Convention; and

i. Programmes containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to

climate change

ii. Programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change

1 “Article 2”. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Retrieved 10 April, 2019.


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c) Any other information that the Party considers relevant to the achievement of the

objective of the Convention and suitable for inclusion in its communication, including, if

feasible, materials relevant for calculation of global emission trends.

At COP 16 in Cancun in 2010, the Parties decided to enhance reporting in national

communications from non-Annex I Parties on national GHG inventories, mitigation

actions and their effects, and support received in a form of a Biennial Update Report

(BUR). BURs are intended to provide updates on actions undertaken by a Party to

implement the Convention, including the status of its greenhouse gas emissions and

removals by sinks, as well as on the actions to reduce emissions or enhance sinks, and

support needed and received to implement these actions.

In both National Communications and Biennial Update Reports Non-Annex I parties such

as Tajikistan need to report information on mitigation of climate change. This project

contributes to fulfilling the information provisions of the national communications, as it

assess the programmes and measures to mitigate climate change detailing the methods

used and results obtained, and provides information relevant to the BUR, as it provides

information on estimated emission reductions and methodologies and assumptions for

the mitigation actions involving direct GHG emission reductions.

With the ratification of the Paris Agreement in 2017, Tajikistan pledged its national

determined contribution, with conditional and unconditional mitigation objectives. The

two mitigation targets established in the NDC are:

1- without attracting new substantial international funding: not exceeding 80-90% of

the 1990 level by 2030, which amounts to 1.7-2.2 tons in CO2 equivalent per

capita

2- subject to new substantial international funding and technology transfer: a target

of 65-75% of the 1990 level by 2030, which amounts to 1.2-1.7 tons in CO2

equivalent per capita.

The NDC specified that the scope of these targets includes the following activities:

Power industry and water resources;

Industry and construction;

Land use, agriculture and gardening and grazing;

Forestry and biodiversity; and

Transportation and infrastructure.

In this regard, this assignment allows Tajikistan to assess its programs and measures

implemented or planned that result in the mitigation of human-induced climate change

and progress in achieving its NDC. The assignment also allows Tajikistan to identify

additional mitigation alternatives that could be implemented in the country in the

future, that could be considered in a potential review of the NDC.


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Overall Methodology

The overarching working principles followed in the projection of GHG emissions are

the following:

The projections are consistent with the GHG emissions of the historical period.

The nomenclatures and good practice of 2006 IPCC Guidelines have been

followed for estimating projections.

The differences between scenarios are only explained by the impact of mitigation

actions or mitigation options.

The projections are consistent with the overall macroeconomic framework of the

country, defined in the National Development Strategy.

The lack of information has been addressed with assumptions made by the

working team and validated by national experts.

All the working files generated during project have been provided aiming at

facilitating future updates of the work.

The guiding principle for the development of this report is transparency. Thence,

the data used, methodologies applied, and results obtained are provided at a

detailed breakdown to facilitate the understanding of the work developed.

All the developments made have been validated by national stakeholders.

Following these principles is essential for ensuring the results of the GHG emissions

projections are robust and consistent for assessing mitigation trends and tracking

progress towards the achievement of the NDC.

Approach

The project started with a first workshop to present the project to the main climate change

stakeholders of the country. This first workshop was used to engage with the

stakeholders and to start the data gathering process and was followed by a set of bilateral

interviews to facilitate the data gathering. The information raised during the inception

workshop and these bilateral interviews was the foundation for the development of the

GHG emission projections.

From a technical point of view, the project started with the identification of mitigation

actions implemented, under implementation and planned in the country and with the

estimation of a “Without Measures Scenario” using the national GHG emission inventory

as a reference. This scenario does not take into account the implementation of any

mitigation action but is projected considering the main macroeconomic perspectives of

the county.

All mitigation actions identified were assessed by the working team to obtain the impact

in terms of GHG emissions reductions due to their implementation. Once the assessment

of mitigation actions implemented, under implementation and planned was completed,

additional mitigation alternatives (mitigation options) were identified and assessed by


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IPCC sector. All mitigation actions and additional options assessed were used to develop

GHG emissions scenarios.

The results of this project were validated by national stakeholders.

The project also included a capacity building program, which involved the development

of a set of videos on the development of GHG emission projections using the tools which

have been developed under the project.

Figure. Methodological approach for the implementation of the project.

The following paragraphs provide key insights on the main methodological steps followed

to estimate the GHG emission projections of Tajikistan.

Estimating a Without Measures (WoM) scenario

The Without Measures Scenario is estimated from the emissions of years 2004-2016

(i.e. the GHG emissions inventory2) using national forecasts for 2016 to 2030,

assumptions on the evolution of the key parameters and basic statistical techniques. This

scenario does not consider specifically the impact of any mitigation action under

implementation since 2015.

2 The GHG emission inventory has been adjusted for improving its completeness aiming at providing exhaustive GHG emission scenarios.


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From the methodology and emissions estimated in the WoM, the different policy

scenarios (With Existing Measures scenario and With Additional Measures Scenario)

were estimated by subtracting the impact of mitigation policies and options to the

corresponding sector.

What mitigation policies and mitigation options do we consider in each

scenario?

Not all mitigation actions implemented in the country have been considered in this GHG

emission mitigation assessment. The criteria for selecting mitigation actions is the

following:

The mitigation action is under implementation in or after year 2015. This also

includes actions which are planned to be implemented in the future.

The mitigation action involves direct GHG emission reductions (studies or

feasibility projects have not been assessed)

It is not just a good idea or intention reflected in a policy/strategy, but it is a real

action to be implemented with GHG emissions associated.

There is no double counting with other mitigation actions assessed. For instance,

if a project to install a solar plant is included in a strategy to increase solar

generation capacity is estimated at the national level.

The mitigation actions are not only projects implemented, but also plans which are

described within general policy frameworks. Policy frameworks are not necessarily

mitigation actions. They include overall objectives and strategic lines to follow that,

sometimes, are not translated into real lines of action. Thence, it is important to highlight

that this GHG mitigation assessment has not included aspirational objectives which are

not translated into lines of action. The policy frameworks evaluated for identifying

mitigation actions are the following:

National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period up to

2030

National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Water Sector Reform Program of the Republic of Tajikistan

Program for providing the population with clean drinking water

Development Program for Housing and Public Utilities of the Republic of

Tajikistan

State Target Program for the Development of the Transport Complex of the

Republic of Tajikistan

Agricultural Reform Programme of the Republic of Tajikistan

Pasture Development Program of the Republic of Tajikistan

Strategy for the development of industry in the Republic of Tajikistan


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The state program for the development of new irrigated land and the restoration

of land that has been abandoned from agricultural circulation in the Republic of

Tajikistan

Comprehensive livestock development program

State environmental program

Power Sector Development Master Plan

These policies, strategies and programmes led to the implementation of various

mitigation actions in line with the main objectives established in them.

Nevertheless, in the context of this assignment, several of these strategies have been

directly considered in the different emission scenarios. This is the case, for instance, for

the “Forest Sector Development Strategy for 2016-2030”, for which a direct GHG

emission impact for its implementation has been estimated.

Regarding the scenarios, we have selected mitigation actions and mitigation options for

showing the mitigation effort made since 2015 (the implementation of the NDC), the effort

which is planned to be made in the future and the possibilities to make further effort to

raise the mitigation ambition of the country. With this idea, several scenarios have been

designed:

Table. Mitigation actions and mitigation options included in the scenarios

Mitigation actions and options included WoM WeM WaM

Mitigation actions implemented/finished after

2015

× ×

Mitigation actions adopted after 2015 × ×

Mitigation actions planned ×

Mitigation options (additional) ×

With Existing Measures (WeM) Scenario: This policy scenario is built from the WoM

considering the effect of mitigation actions under implementation since 2015. This

includes mitigation actions that were adopted after 2015 but their implementation not yet

finalized.

With Additional Measures (WaM) Scenario: This policy scenario is built from the WeM

considering the mitigation actions planned to be implemented in the future and the impact

of the main mitigation options identified additionally to the previous actions. This policy

scenario represents the maximum GHG emission level that Tajikistan could achieve with

the implementation of the key mitigation alternatives available.

How is the mitigation impact of the mitigation actions assessed?

Three steps are followed for estimating the mitigation impact of actions:

1. Identify the IPCC category or categories affected by the mitigation action.


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2. With the information available regarding the scope of the action, evaluate how

the mitigation action impact the activity data and/or emission factors of the

emissions estimated in the WoM.

3. Design an estimation method for obtaining the overall impact of the mitigation

action. Overall, there are two types of estimation methods for estimating the

mitigation impact:

A) Estimate the GHG emissions in two scenarios for the mitigation action:

a reference scenario and a reduction scenario. The impact of the action

is then calculated as GHG Emissions in the reference scenario minus

the GHG emissions in the reduction scenario.

The reference scenario is ideally consistent with the WoM, and only

considers the activity data affected by the mitigation action. It represents

the technology and process in place before policy implementation.

The reduction scenario includes an estimation of the emissions of the

new situation, after policy implementation. Assumption are often needed

on the scope and the new technology/process implemented.

B) Estimate directly the mitigation impact of the action, i.e. the GHG

emissions reduction applicable to the change produced by the

implementation of the mitigation action. In these cases, only the

difference between the scenarios for mitigation action (reference and

reduction scenarios) is estimated.

Methodology

This project follows the nomenclature, good practices and allocation of emissions

specified in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines.

The global warming potentials used for the calculation of the total GHG emissions are

those used in the NDC, i.e. the GWP of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The

decision about the GWP was made aiming at achieving consistency with the NDC, as

AR4 GWP were used in the NDC of Tajikistan.

Current GHG emission profile

The following table shows the detailed GHG emissions at category level, to provide a

better understanding of the mitigation possibilities from the current GHG emission level:

Table. Breakdown of GHG emissions in Tajikistan

IPCC Category 2004 2010 2015 2016

Energy

1A1 Energy Industries 283 251 1,099 1,736


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IPCC Category 2004 2010 2015 2016 1A2 Manufacturing industries and

construction 488 392 260 309

1A3 Transport 408 256 255 149

1A4 Commercial/residential/institutional 2,835 484 2,166 1,239

1B1 Fugitive emissions from solid fuels 2 5 25 33 1B2 Fugitive emissions from oil and natural

gas 29 41 37 38

IPPU

2A Mineral Industry 118 177 744 1,032

2C Metal Industry 1,806 1,761 702 652

2F Product Uses as substitutes for ODS 237 267 300 307

AFOLU

3A1 Enteric fermentation 2,370 3,485 4,053 4,173

3A2 Manure management 476 690 793 818

3B Land -1,461 -1,512 -1,591 -1,598 3C Aggregate sources and non-CO2

emissions sources on land 572 555 678 611

Waste

4A Solid waste disposal 163 218 259 266

4C Incineration and open Burning 403 452 510 522

4D Wastewater treatment and discharge 533 576 650 666

Total 9,263 8,097 10,942 10,953

Note – The categories/emission sources with no emissions estimated in the historical

period have not been included in this table.

The analysis of the emissions estimated in the historical period at category level

(illustrated in the previous table) is essential to understand the GHG emission projections

estimated and the mitigation potential of the country.

The largest contributor to historical period GHG emissions is enteric fermentation

(IPCC sub-category 3A1), with a contribution that ranges from a 25.6 per cent in 2004 to

a 38.1 per cent of national total emissions in year 2016. The increasing contribution of

this sub-category is driven by the growing population of cattle, which increased by a 95.8

per cent in the period 2004-2016. This is also the reason for the growing emissions from

manure management, that contributed with a 7.5 per cent to national total GHG

emissions in 2016.

The second contributing activity to national total GHG emissions is energy industries

(IPCC sub-category 1A1), with an increasing share that reached a 15.9 per cent of

national total emissions in 2016, from only 3.1 per cent in 2004. This increasing trend is

explained by the commissioning of a new power plant in Dushanbe in year 2014, which

reduced energy shortages but significantly increased anthracite consumption and GHG

emissions.

The carbon stock changes which occurred as a result of land use change and forestry

activities (IPCC category 3B) leaded to steady CO2 removals from the atmosphere,

within the range 14.6-18.7 per cent of national total GHG emissions in the period 2004-


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2016. This contribution makes this category the third largest contributor to Tajikistan

GHG emissions in the historical period.

Fuel consumption in the residential, commercial, and institutional sectors (IPCC

sub-category 1A4) is shown as the fourth largest contributor to national total GHG

emissions, with a decreasing contribution from 30.6 per cent in 2004 to a 11.3 per cent

in 2016. This decrease is explained by a sharp reduction of natural gas consumption,

which was partially covered by anthracite consumption in these sectors, specially from

year 2014.

The activity levels of the mineral industry (IPCC category 2A) raised substantially in the

historical period, leading this category to reach a 9.4 per cent of national total GHG

emissions in 2016. This increase is explained by the abrupt grow of clinker production

levels due to the commissioning of new production plants in years 2014-2016.

Emissions from solid waste management systems, represented in categories 4A solid

waste disposal and 4C incineration and open burning represented a 7.2 per cent of

national total emissions in 2016, with slight variations in the historical time series. The

emissions from solid waste are driven by the number of population, as the waste

generation rate is assumed to remain constant in this period.

The remaining emission categories and subcategories of Tajikistan have lower

contribution to national total GHG emissions. Nevertheless, these other sources together

account for a 25.2 per cent of national total GHG emissions in 2016. Sources with

significant GHG emissions within this group includes industry emissions within

categories 2C Metal Industry, 4D Wastewater treatment and discharge and 1A2

Manufacturing industries and construction.

Projecting national GHG emissions – the Without Measures

Scenario

The Without Measures Scenario (WoM) represents the GHG emissions of Tajikistan with

no changes in the circumstances of the latest year for which observed information is

available, i.e. 2016. In the context of our assignment, this means that this scenario does

not consider the future mitigation impact of any mitigation action under implementation

after 2015. Nevertheless, the GHG emissions estimated for the historical period might be

influenced by the impact of mitigation actions implemented before 2015; the effect of

these mitigation actions is thus which is already incorporated in the observed in years

2004-2015. This impact is estimated from year 2015 within the policy scenarios.

The estimation of the WoM scenario is the key methodological step for obtaining

national total GHG emission projections. The other policy scenarios considering different

degree of policy implementation (the WeM and WaM scenarios) are calculated from the

WoM considering the mitigation impact estimated for the different mitigation actions and

mitigation options identified.


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The WoM is projected relying on available forecasts that explain the future context of the

country, such as GDP, population, or electricity demand. The methodological details of

the projections, data used, and results obtained are detailed in this section. The summary

of the GHG emissions obtained is illustrated in the following figure.

Figure. GHG emission projections by scenario and NDC targets of Tajikistan (Gg

CO2-eq)

The GHG emission profile of the country remains relatively stable in the WoM. In line

with the GDP forecast of the Industrial scenario of the National Development Strategy,

the contribution of agriculture to national total emissions is reduced, while the Energy

and IPPU emissions increase its contribution. The contribution of the Waste and FOLU

sectors are also slightly reduced.

The emissions from the national GHG emission inventory (time series 2004-2016) have

been generally projected differentiating between activity data and emission factors

following the basic IPCC 2006 equation for GHG emission calculation, as follows

1 𝐸𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑐,𝑔,𝑡 = 𝐴𝐷𝑐,𝑡 ∙ 𝐸𝐹𝑐,𝑔,𝑡

Where

𝐸𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑐,𝑔,𝑡 = 𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑐, 𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑔 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑡

𝐴𝐷𝑐,𝑡 = 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑐, 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑡

𝐸𝐹𝑐,𝑔,𝑡 = 𝐸𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑐, 𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑔 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑡

Projections estimates have been performed at the highest disaggregation level available

in the inventory. The projection of the activity data of the inventory is driven by different

factors, such as the level of activity (production, population or energy demand, among

others), while the evolution of the emission factors is driven by other factors such as

technology.

In the cases where complex methodologies are used by the inventory, the same

methodology has been used for projections. In the cases were the same methodology

could not be used, the implied emission factor and the most representative activity data

series have been used for projecting.


18

The projections of the activity data have been done using different methods, depending

of the nature of the variables and its temporal evolution. In certain occasions, proxies

(the variables shown in previous table) can be used for projecting the activity data.

However, this is not always possible. The following are the type methods that have

been used for projecting the activity data of the inventory:

[1] Using the value of the latest inventory year or any arithmetic calculation.

Applying a growing rate

1) A specific growing rate [2a]

𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑡 = 𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑡−1 ∙ 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑡

2) The same growing rate of a correlated proxy [2b]

𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑡 = 𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑡−1 ∙ 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑥𝑦𝑡

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑥𝑦𝑡−1

Using linear regression models with proxies [3]

𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑡 =∝ + 𝛽 ∙ 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑥𝑦𝑡

The technological and process conditions and characteristics remain unchanged

(constant) in the projected period. Therefore, the projection of emission factor in the WoM

scenario is generally made using the latest emission factor value of the inventory. The

emission factors used are all default IPCC 2006 emission factors, as used in the national

GHG emissions inventory.

List of mitigation actions assessed

The following table shows the list of mitigation actions which have been assessed in this

assignment, specifying the scenario where they are included.

Name of the action Status of

implementation

Mitigation

Scenario

Annual

Mitigation

Impact by

2030 (CO2-

eq)

Tajikistan: Regional Power Transmission Project

(ADB) Implemented/Finished WeM 11.71

Tajikistan Green Energy Facility (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 7.01

Obigarm-Nurobod road project (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM NA

Khatlon Energy Loss Reduction Project (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM IE

Khatlon Public Transport (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 0.12

Qairokkum HPP Climate Resilience Upgrade

(EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM 0.60


19


implementation

Mitigation

Scenario

Annual

Mitigation

Impact by

2030 (CO2-

eq)

Tajikistan: Golovnaya 240-Megawatt Hydropower

Plant Rehabilitation Project (ADB) Adopted/ongoing WeM 0.23

Construction of Kulyab-Khalaikumb Road,

Sections A and F (Kulyab-Shurobad and Shkev-

Kalaikhumb) (Islamic Development Bank)

Implemented/Finished WeM NA

Reconstruction of Ravshan Electricity Substation

Project (Islamic Development Bank) Implemented/Finished WeM NA

Tajikistan: Regional Power Transmission Project

(ADB) Implemented/Finished WeM NA

Tajikistan: Wholesale Metering and Transmission

Reinforcement Project (ADB) Implemented/Finished WeM NA

Regional: Promoting Low-Carbon Development in

Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation

Program Cities (ADB)

Adopted/ongoing WeM NA

Tajikistan: Central Asia Regional Economic

Cooperation Corridors 2, 5, and 6 (Dushanbe-

Kurgonteppa) Road Project - Additional Financing

(ADB)



Cooperation Corridors 2, 5, and 6 (Dushanbe–

Kurgonteppa) Road Project (ADB)



Cooperation Corridors 3 and 5 Enhancement

Project (ADB)

Implemented/Finished WeM NA

Regional Electricity Transport Project (CASA -

1000) (EBRD) Planned WeM NA

Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project, Phase 1

(WB) Adopted/ongoing WeM IE

Dushanbe Public Transport (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 0.00

Khujand Public Transport Project (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 0.00

Rural Electrification Project (WB) Adopted/ongoing WeM 0.43

Sugd - Energy Loss Reduction project (EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM IE

Long-Term Small Hydro Power Plant Construction

Program Implemented/Finished WeM 1.50

State Target Program for the Development of the

Transport Complex of the Republic of Tajikistan -

Sustainable fuels

Adopted/ongoing WeM 10.58

Strategy for the development of industry in the

Republic of Tajikistan Adopted/ongoing WeM NA

Livestock and Pasture Development Project (IFAD) Implemented/Finished WeM 14.65

Livestock and Pasture Development Project II

(IFAD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 18.12

Project "Support to Agriculture in the Community"

(IFAD) Adopted/ongoing WeM NA

Agriculture Commercialization Project (WB) Adopted/ongoing WeM NA

Dangara Valley Irrigation Project, Phase III (Islamic

Development Bank) Implemented/Finished WeM 0.64

Tajikistan second public employment for

sustainable agriculture and water resources

management project (WB)

Implemented/Finished WeM 92.23


20


implementation

Mitigation

Scenario

Annual

Mitigation

Impact by

2030 (CO2-

eq)

Project "Reconstruction of the irrigation system and

improvement of its management in the Zerafshan

River Basin" (WB)


«Building Climate Resiliense in the Pyanj River

Basin Project» (ADB) Implemented/Finished WeM 0.53

Improvement of Water Resources Management in

Khatlon Region Project (Islamic Development

Bank)


Zarafshon Irrigation Rehabilitation and

Management Improvement Project (WB) Implemented/Finished WeM NA

Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral

Sea Basin CAMP4ASB(WB) Adopted/ongoing WeM NA

Climate Adaptation through Sustainable Forestry in

Important River Catchment Areas in Tajikistan

(CAFT) - German Development Bank


Agricultural Reform Programme of the Republic of

Tajikistan Implemented/Finished WeM NA

Programme of development of biotechnology of

cattle in the Republic of Tajikistan Implemented/Finished WeM NA

Pasture Development Program of the Republic of

Tajikistan Adopted/ongoing WeM 0.25

Horticulture and Grapevine Development Program Implemented/Finished WeM 122.35


Transport Complex of the Republic of Tajikistan -

Land use and afforestation


Development Program for Seed Production of the

Republic of Tajikistan Implemented/Finished WeM 33.06

The state program for the development of new

irrigated land and the restoration of land that has

been abandoned from agricultural circulation in the



Comprehensive livestock development program Adopted/ongoing WeM 14.02

State environmental program Implemented/Finished WeM NA

Forest Sector Development Strategy for 2016-2030 Planned WaM 353.15

Second Dushanbe Water Supply Project (WB) Implemented/Finished WeM NA

Tajikistan: Dushanbe Water Supply and Sanitation

Project (ADB) Adopted/ongoing WeM 23.57

Khujand Water Supply Improvement Programme

(Phase III) - EBRD Implemented/Finished WeM 15.23

Nurek Water and Wastewater Project (EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM 0.10

Kulob Water and Wastewater Project (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 8.02

Vahdat Solid Waste Project (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 1.49

Yavan Solid Waste Sub-project (EBRD) Adopted/ongoing WeM 0.90

Kulob Solid Waste Sub-project (EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM 3.71

Khujand Solid Waste Sub-project (EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM 7.04

Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project (WB) Adopted/ongoing WeM NA

Khorog Solid Waste Sub-Project (EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM 1.55

Tursun-Zade Solid Waste (EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM 2.01

Kurgan-Tyube Solid Waste (EBRD) Implemented/Finished WeM 4.15


21


implementation

Mitigation

Scenario

Annual

Mitigation

Impact by

2030 (CO2-

eq)


Transport Complex of the Republic of Tajikistan Adopted/ongoing WeM NA

Power Sector Master Plan - Construction of Rogun

HPP Planned WaM 67.62

EBRD Sustainable Energy Financing Facilities Planned WaM NA

Scaling Up Hydropower Sector Climate Resilience Planned WaM IE

Institutional Development of the State Agency for

Hydrometeorology of Tajikistan Planned WaM NA

Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for the

Aral Sea Basin Planned WaM NA

Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable and

Food Insecure Communities through Capacity

Strengthening and Livelihood Diversification in

Mountainous Regions of Tajikistan

Planned WaM NA

NA – Not applicable. The mitigation impact could not be estimated due to either the lack of information or

the characteristics of the mitigation action

IE – the impact of the action is included in other mitigation action

The previous table is limited to the actions which are implemented, under implementation

or planned in the country, i.e. the additional mitigation actions which have been identified

are not included in this table.


22

Summary of Results

The following figure illustrate the GHG emission projections of Tajikistan up to 2030

under the WoM, WeM and WaM scenarios. These GHG emission projections are in line

with the macroeconomic framework projected in the National Development Strategy to

2030 for the industrial scenario3.

Figure. GHG emission projections by scenario and NDC targets of Tajikistan (Gg

CO2-eq)

The GHG emissions of the WoM will growth an average of 3.3 per cent by year in the

period 2016-2030, compared to the 6 per cent annual growth of GDP and the 2.1 per

cent annual growth of population. The projection of the WoM has been developed at

category level, considering the different determinant of each emission source.

The GHG emission projections estimated in the WoM are below the unconditional

mitigation target set in the NDC for 2030, without considering the impact of any mitigation

action. The unconditional NDC objective is defined as 80-90% of the 1990 emission

levels, i.e. 20,400 Gg emissions of CO2-eq for year 2020.

However, WoM emissions are above the conditional mitigation target defined in the NDC,

which is defined as a 65-75% of the 1990 level by 2030, ie. 16,575 Gg emissions of CO2-

eq for the lower range.

3 Three scenarios are considered in the National Development Strategy, an inertial scenario, an industrial scenario and an innovative scenario. The inertial scenario is not relevant for this type of exercise. The innovative scenario assumes a structural change in the economy which is not feasible with the existent policy framework. The industrial scenario assumes that the economy reduces the weight of agriculture, shifting to a more industrial intensive economy. This is in line with national policies and programmes, such as the “Strategy for the development of industry in the Republic of Tajikistan”. For this reason, the industrial scenario has been chosen as a core for this GHG emissions projections.


23

The absolute levels for the NDC targets mentioned in the previous paragraph are

calculations which considered that the emissions of year 1990 were 25,500 Gg CO2-eq.

Nevertheless, the GHG emissions of year 1990 have not been re-calculated with the

methodology used in this exercise, so the absolute value for the NDC target can only be

seen as an approximate value. For this reason, it would be recommendable that

Tajikistan either recalculates its 1990 emissions or sets a new NDC target using a more

recent year (for instance, 2010 or 2015).

Considering the effect of the main projects and programmes implemented or adopted in

the country, Tajikistan will not meet its conditional NDC target, as these mitigation actions

have a limited mitigation impact in terms of GHG emissions (this impact is considered in

the WeM scenario). The mitigation actions which showed higher mitigation impact in the

country are the following:

Horticulture and Grapevine Development Program. The estimated mitigation impact

for this action in 2030 is 122 Gg CO2-eq.

Second public employment for sustainable agriculture and water resources

management project. The estimated mitigation impact for this action in 2030 is 92

Gg CO2-eq.

Climate Adaptation through Sustainable Forestry in Important River Catchment

Areas in Tajikistan (CAFT). The estimated mitigation impact for this action in 2030

is 90 Gg CO2-eq.

The aggregated impact of all implemented or adopted actions is 507 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.

The impact of these actions is shown in the WeM scenario.

Given the modest mitigation impact of these actions, Tajikistan will require to implement

additional mitigation actions for achieving its conditional NDC target.

Tajikistan is already making efforts to further reduce its GHG emissions in the future and

is planning the future implementation of substantial mitigation initiatives. This is the case

of the Forest Sector Development Strategy, which is not yet adopted, but has an

estimated mitigation impact of 353 Gg CO2-eq by 2030. This is also the case for the

commissioning of the Rogun Hydroelectricity power plant, which is undergoing and is

expected to finalised by 2026. The effect of this strategy and the commissioning of the

Rogun Hydroelectricity power plant are included in the WaM scenario, together with

additional mitigation actions with potential to reduce GHG emission which have been

identified in the framework of this project. As shown in the figure above, the

implementation of all actions included in the WaM scenario, for which the country will

need substantial international support, will allow Tajikistan to significantly reduce its

emissions by 2030, reaching its conditional NDC target.

Analysis of the future GHG emission profile and mitigation

options available


24

In the energy sector, the greatest mitigation potential is found in the energy industries

and in the residential, commercial and institutional sectors, the areas producing the

largest GHG emissions in both the historical and projected (i.e. in the WoM) periods

within this sector.

In energy industries, the high levels of installed hydroelectric capacity limits the current

GHG emissions of the electricity sector. Future GHG emissions in energy industries

depend on the finalization of the Rogun Hydropower plant. This power plant will

represent an addition of 3,600 MW to the electricity generation capacity of the country,

limiting the need of fossil fuel generation for meeting national electricity demand.

Conversely, if this plant is not finally commissioned, additional fossil generation capacity

will be needed to avoid shortages in the winter period. This will also involve significantly

higher GHG emissions in the energy sector (as represented in the WoM scenario).

Notwithstanding the foregoing, the greatest mitigation opportunity identified for the

energy sector is in the residential, commercial, and institutional sector. The use of coal

(anthracite) in these sectors is one of the biggest emission sources of the inventory. The

replacement of boilers, kitchens and stoves using coal for equivalent electric appliances

will significantly reduce the emissions of these emission sources. Complementarily,

energy efficiency measures to reduce energy consumption could be also considered to

reduce the contribution of these sector to national GHG emissions.

Aluminium production is one of the key industries operating in Tajikistan and is highly

energy intensive. The reduction of the energy intensity in the production of aluminum

through the incentive of secondary aluminum production practices is another possibility

to reduce the GHG emissions of the energy sector significantly. The promotion of Best

Available Techniques4 in the industry will reduce the energy consumption requirements

of the industry, limiting its GHG emissions. Tajikistan should consider addressing this

issue in the framework of its Strategy for the development of industry in the Republic of

Tajikistan, by including specific actions for future implementation.

The transport sector has a limited contribution to energy sector GHG emissions.

However, the transport sector is an essential sector for the development of the country,

and it should be considered in the core of the mitigation strategy of the country.

Continuing the renovation of the public transport infrastructure and providing incentives

to stimulate its use should be a priority for the climate change action of the country in the

future.

Industrial processes and product use emissions (IPPU) are dominated by the

contribution of the cement industry, in which the recent commissioning of cement plants

sharply increased its emissions. Measures to promote the reduction of the clinker content

4 https://eippcb.jrc.ec.europa.eu/reference

https://eippcb.jrc.ec.europa.eu/reference


25

of cement will reduce largely the emissions of the IPPU sector and have been identified

as a key mitigation potential alternative for the country.

Additionally, the refrigeration and air conditioning market of Tajikistan is increasingly

using F-gases to replace CFC and HCFC. However, these gases have a very high global

warming potential, affecting the GHG emission profile of the country. The future

replacement of F-gases for climate friendly alternatives will also have a representative

mitigation potential.

In the waste sector, Tajikistan is making substantial efforts to improve its solid waste and

wastewater management practices, in line with the national policy framework. The

expansion of the solid waste management practices and the reduction of open burning

of wastes in the rural areas is identified as a key opportunity for reducing GHG emissions

with outstanding co-benefits in terms of health and air quality. Furthermore, continuing

with the renovation of wastewater treatment plants have been also identified as a

relevant mitigation opportunity for the country.

Sensitivity of the estimates

An assessment of the sensitivity of the estimates was developed in the assignment

related to the possible development pathways which can occur in the country, specifically

related to the different trends of GDP and population growth, which are the key proxies

defining the national macro and socioeconomic framework of the country.

The main insight extracted from the sensitivity analysis is that under lower prospects of

economic and population growth, Tajikistan would achieve both its conditional and non-

conditional NDC targets without additional efforts. This analysis shows the approximate

GHG emission pathway of the country under pessimistic international macroeconomic

scenarios, as could be the case as a result of the coronavirus epidemic of year 2020.

This analysis also indicated that Tajikistan has room to increase its mitigation ambition

in the revision of the NDC, aiming at maximizing the possibilities of obtaining international

climate finance.

Conclusions

This project involved the estimation of impact of all mitigation actions implemented and

planned in Tajikistan and has identified and approximated the GHG emission reduction

impact of additional mitigation options for the country. Different scenarios have been

estimated illustrating the possible mitigation pathways of Tajikistan.

The results of this exercise show that Tajikistan needs to implement additional mitigation

actions for meeting its conditional NDC target, set at 65% of 1990 GHG emission levels

by year 2030. The impact of the actions under implementation since 2015 is thus not

sufficient to achieve the conditional NDC target. As shown in the sensitivity analysis,


26

under lower prospects of economic and population growth, Tajikistan would achieve both

its conditional and non-conditional NDC targets without additional efforts.

The assessment of progress towards the achievement of the NDC targets made in this

report can only be seen as an approximation, as these targets refer to the GHG

emissions of year 1990, which were calculated following a different methodology (IPCC

Good Practice guidelines were used) than the one used in the latest GHG emission

inventory and also this exercise, so the differences between reference year emissions

(i.e. 1990), emissions of year 2016 and year 2030 are partially explained by the different

methodologies used. For this reason, it would be recommendable to either

recalculating the GHG emissions of year 1990 using consistently 2006 IPCC

Guidelines or updating the NDC target using the results of this exercise, i.e. the

GHG emissions of the period 2004-2030 which are calculated using the same

methodology.

Tajikistan counts with a sectoral policy framework which form the foundation for the

future low carbon development of the country. Nevertheless, the objectives and strategic

lines defined in these policy frameworks are not always translated into mitigation actions

with real GHG emission reductions. This is in fact the reason for the limited GHG

emission reduction impact of the mitigation actions implemented in Tajikistan.

Streamlining climate change in the existent policy instruments and including a

roadmap of specific mitigation actions should be a priority to achieve a low carbon

development pathway in Tajikistan.

The GHG emissions and mitigation profile of Tajikistan are strongly driven by the

contribution of the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sector, with over 40% of

national total emissions attributable to this sector in the historical and projected period in

both the WoM and the WeM scenarios. Given its impact in national total GHG emissions

and its prospects, the AFOLU sector should be prioritized within the mitigation

efforts of the country. In particular, the implementation of the Forest Sector

Development Strategy for 2016-2030 and the continuation of the Comprehensive

livestock development program, Pasture Development Programme after 2020 and

Development Program for Seed Production of the Republic of Tajikistan, are key for the

low carbon development of the country.

Apart from the AFOLU sector, the future GHG emission profile of Tajikistan is highly

dependent on the finalization of the Rogun Hydropower plant. This power plant will



The mitigation options with the greatest potential to reduce future GHG emissions

have been identified under this assignment, and include:

Replacement of anthracite consumption by electricity in the residential,

commercial and institutional sectors. This action has the higher estimated

mitigation potential, with 1,929 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.


27

Incentivise the reduction of the clinker content of the cement produced in the

country. The reduction of clinker production in national cement production plants

has an estimated mitigation potential of 510 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.

Improving solid waste management practices. In line with national efforts to

improve solid waste practices, the waste management system could be extended

to rural areas, reducing the GHG emissions that occur in the open burning of

waste. This mitigation action has an estimated mitigation potential of 328 Gg

CO2-eq by 2030.

Enhancing removals by creating new fruit orchards and vineyards in addition to

those referred in the "Horticulture and Viticulture Development Program in the

Republic of Tajikistan for 2016 – 2020". This mitigation action has an estimated

mitigation potential of 125 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.

Agroforestry and / or silvo-pastoral systems. This mitigation option is associated

to the improving agroforestry and/or silvo-pastoral systems by planting shrubs

and trees in pastures and agricultural land. This mitigation action has an

estimated mitigation potential of 125 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.

The implementation of the forestry Sector Development Strategy for 2016-2030, the

continuation of the key programmes in the AFOLU sector, the finalization of the Rogun

Hydropower plant and the implementation of the key mitigation options identified will

allow Tajikistan to reduce its GHG emissions well below its conditional NDC target,

contributing to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreements and the United Nations

Convention of Climate Change.


Section 1 - Introduction

1. Background

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an

international treaty whose overall objective is to “stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG)

concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic

interference”5 with the Earth’s climate system. Tajikistan became a Party to the UNFCCC

in 1992 and ratified the Convention on October 31, 1994.

The commitment for Parties to communicate to the Conference of Parties (COP)

information relating to the implementation of the Convention is guided by Articles 4 and

12 of the Convention.

In accordance with Article 4, paragraph 1, each Party, taking into account their common

but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development

priorities, objectives and circumstances, shall, among other things, formulate,

implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional

programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change, and measures to facilitate

adequate adaptation to climate change.

Further, in accordance with Article 12, paragraph 1, each Party shall communicate to the

COP, through the secretariat in the form of a national communication, the following

elements of information:

a) A national inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of

all GHGs not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, to the extent its capacities permit, using

comparable methodologies to be promoted and agreed upon by the COP;

b) A general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement the

Convention; and

i. Programmes containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to

climate change

ii. Programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change

c) Any other information that the Party considers relevant to the achievement of the

objective of the Convention and suitable for inclusion in its communication, including, if

feasible, materials relevant for calculation of global emission trends.

5 “Article 2”. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Retrieved 10 April, 2019.


At COP 16 in Cancun in 2010, the Parties decided to enhance reporting in national

communications from non-Annex I Parties on national GHG inventories, mitigation

actions and their effects, and support received in a form of a Biennial Update Report

(BUR). BURs are intended to provide updates on actions undertaken by a Party to

implement the Convention, including the status of its greenhouse gas emissions and

removals by sinks, as well as on the actions to reduce emissions or enhance sinks, and

support needed and received to implement these actions.

In both National Communications and Biennial Update Reports Non-Annex I parties such

as Tajikistan need to report information on mitigation of climate change. The following

table shows the information provisions of National Communication and Biennial Update

Reports regarding mitigation:

Table 1. Mitigation information provisions in NC and BUR

Decision 17/CP.18: National

Communications Decision 2/CP.17: BURs

(III) General description of steps….to

implement the Convention

(a) Programmes and measures to

mitigate

• General requirements

• Methods and assessment /analysis

(results)

(III) Mitigation actions and their effects

• Methodologies and assumptions

• Objectives of the action and steps taken

or envisaged to achieve that action

• Progress of implementation and the

underlying steps taken or envisaged, and

the results achieved, such as estimated

outcomes (metrics depending on type of

action) and estimated emission

reductions, to the extent possible

• International market mechanisms

• Description of domestic MRV

arrangements

This project contributes to fulfilling the information the information provisions of the

national communications, as it assess the programmes and measures to mitigate climate

change detailing the methods used and results obtained, and provides information

relevant to the BUR, as it provides information on estimated emission reductions and

methodologies and assumptions for the mitigation actions involving direct GHG emission

reductions.

With the ratification of the Paris Agreement in 2017, Tajikistan pledged its national

determined contribution, with conditional and unconditional mitigation objectives. The

two mitigation targets established in the NDC are:


3- without attracting new substantial international funding: not exceeding 80-90% of

the 1990 level by 2030, which amounts to 1.7-2.2 tons in CO2 equivalent per

capita

4- subject to new substantial international funding and technology transfer: a target

of 65-75% of the 1990 level by 2030, which amounts to 1.2-1.7 tons in CO2

equivalent per capita.

The NDC specified that the scope of these targets includes the following activities:

Power industry and water resources;

Industry and construction;

Land use, agriculture and gardening and grazing;

Forestry and biodiversity; and

Transportation and infrastructure.

In this regard, this assignment allows Tajikistan to assess its programs and measures

implemented or planned that result in the mitigation of human-induced climate change

and progress in achieving its NDC. The assignment also allows Tajikistan to identify

additional mitigation alternatives that could be implemented in the country in the future,

that could be considered in a potential review of the NDC.

2. Objectives and scope of this assignment

Tajikistan has implemented in recent years a number of policies and measures (PAMs)6

to mitigate climate change reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Assessing the impact of

these measures, and additional PAMs that will be implemented in the future, is key for

tracking progress of the achievement of national targets (i.e. NDC), facilitating

policymaking and improving the understanding on the drivers of national GHG emissions.

In this context, this project aims at assessing the GHG emission reduction impact of

national PAMs, projecting national GHG emissions to 2030 and developing different

mitigation scenarios considering different development pathways and the

implementation of different PAMs.

Specifically, this project encompasses the development of the following activities:

Collect official country information needed to complete the task.

Development of terms of reference for national experts. Collection of official

information on key sectors (energy, industrial processes, agriculture, forestry and

land use, waste) necessary for the calculations.

Analyse the GHG emission features of Tajikistan.

6 this document refer to policies and measures to reduce GHG emissions as PAMs or mitigation actions.


Development of guidelines and handouts for trainings of local experts and young

specialists.

Conducting at least 5 workshops (with translation to Tajik language) to train local experts and young specialists in forecasting GHG emissions in key sectors, taking into account various development scenarios. At least two specialists should be trained in key sectors: energy, industrial processes, agriculture, forestry and land use, waste.

Providing an algorithm and programs for calculating GHG emissions projections

applying top-down or bottom-up approaches to different sectors and policies and

measures as appropriate. Compose and transfer user instructions and programs.

Development of indicators for Individual activities of the mitigation actions.

Indicators should reflect what the mitigation actions seek to achieve and should

define the specific interventions included in the mitigation actions (taxes, grants,

etc.); who monitors the indicators; timing and frequency of monitoring of

indicators.

Providing a detailed methodology for research and projection of GHG emissions

in key sectors. Develop projections of GHG emissions in key sectors by 2030,

taking into account various scenarios, following the UNFCCC recommendations

to analyse three scenarios (business as usual, with measures and with additional

measures). Methodology and research results should be translated to Tajik

language also.

Analysing the existing climate policies and measures in Tajikistan and their

impacts.

Preparing and providing a list of mitigation policies and measures based on the

developed GHG emissions projections, considering various development

scenarios.

3. Structure of the document

This technical report is structured in the following sections:

Section 1. Introduction

This section includes a description of the background for the GHG mitigation

assessment, its scope, and objectives to introduce and contextualize the technical report.

Section 2. Overall methodology

This section provides a description of the overall methodological approach followed for

developing the GHG mitigation assessment.

Section 3. Current GHG emissions profile

This section includes a description of the historical GHG emissions that have been used

as a reference in this GHG emissions projections.


Section 4. Without Measures scenario

This section addresses the description of the Without Measures scenario developed by

sector.

Section 5. Implemented mitigation actions

This section provides an assessment of the mitigation actions implemented in the country

with direct GHG emission reduction impact.

Section 6. Planned mitigation actions

This section provides an assessment of the mitigation actions planned to be

implemented in Tajikistan with direct GHG emission reduction impact.

Section 7. Mitigation options

This section includes a description of the mitigation alternatives identified and provides

an approximation to its impact.

Section 8. With Existing Measures scenario

This section covers the description of the With Existing Measures scenario developed

considering the mitigation impact of the actions described in section 5.

Section 9. With Additional Measures scenario

This section covers the description of the With Additional Measures scenario developed

considering the mitigation impact of the actions described in sections 6 and 7.

Section 10. Summary of results

This section provides a summary of the GHG emission projections estimated in this

project, as a summary of the previous sections 4 – 10.

Section 11. Sensitivity analysis

This section includes an assessment of the sensitivity of the results, considering different

GDP and population pathways.

Section 12. Conclusions of the GHG mitigation assessment

This section concludes the technical report describing with the main results of the project

and highlighting the key messages derived from it.


Section 2 - Overall methodology

This project builds from the work carried out previously in the country, specifically the

GHG emission inventory 2004-2016, the identification of mitigation actions made in the

BUR1 and several sectoral policy frameworks and background documents.

The overarching working principles followed in the projection of GHG emissions are

the following:

The projections are consistent with the GHG emissions of the historical period.

The nomenclatures and good practice guidance of 2006 IPCC Guidelines have

been followed for estimating projections.

The differences between scenarios are only explained by the impact of mitigation

actions or mitigation options.

The projections are consistent with the overall macroeconomic framework of the

country, defined in the National Development Strategy.

The lack of information has been addressed with assumptions made by the

working and validated by national experts.

All the working files generated during project have been provided aiming at

facilitating future updates of the work.

The guiding principle for the development of this report is transparency. Thence,

the data used, methodologies applied, and results obtained are provided at a

detailed breakdown to facilitate the understanding of the work developed.

All the developments made have been validated by the main stakeholders

involved in climate change mitigation.

Following these principles is essential for ensuring the results of the GHG emissions

projections are robust and consistent for assessing mitigation trends and tracking

progress towards the achievement of the NDC.

1. Approach

The project started with a first workshop to present the project to the main stakeholders

of the country. This first workshop was used to engage with the stakeholders and to start

the data gathering process and was followed by a set of bilateral interviews to facilitate

the data gathering. The information raised during the inception workshop and these

bilateral interviews was the foundation for the development of the GHG emission

projections.

From a technical point of view, the project started with the identification of mitigation

actions implemented and planned in the country and with the estimation of a “Without

Measures Scenario” using the national GHG emission inventory as a reference. This

scenario does not take into account the implementation of any mitigation action but is

projected considering the main macroeconomic perspectives of the county.


All mitigation actions identified were assessed by the working team to obtain the impact

in terms of GHG emissions reductions due to their implementation. Once the assessment

of mitigation actions implemented and planned was completed, additional mitigation

alternatives (mitigation options) were identified and assessed by IPCC sector. All

mitigation actions and additional options assessed were used to develop GHG emissions

scenarios.

The project included a capacitation workshop of four days, from 22-25 June, targeting

national experts on the estimation of GHG emission projections. Due to the Coronavirus

outbreak, this workshop was replaced by the development of an e-learning course for

national consultants.

Figure 1. Methodological approach for the implementation of the project.

The following paragraphs provide key insights on the main methodological steps followed

to estimate the GHG emission projections of Tajikistan.

Estimating a Without Measures (WoM) scenario

The Without Measures Scenario is estimated from the emissions of years 2004-2016

(i.e. the GHG emissions inventory) using national forecasts for 2016 to 2030,

assumptions on the evolution of the key parameters and basic statistical techniques. This

scenario does not consider specifically the impact of any mitigation action under

implementation since 2015.

From the methodology and emissions estimated in the WoM, the different policy

scenarios were estimated by subtracting the impact of mitigation policies and options to

the corresponding sector.


What mitigation policies and mitigation options do we consider in each

scenario?

Not all mitigation actions implemented in the country have been considered in this GHG

emission mitigation assessment. The criteria for selecting mitigation actions is the

following:

The mitigation action is under implementation in or after year 2015. This also

includes actions which are planned to be implemented in the future.

The mitigation action involves direct GHG emission reductions (studies or

feasibility projects have not been assessed)

It is not just a good idea or intention reflected in a policy/strategy, but it is a real

action to be implemented with GHG emissions associated.

There is no double counting with other mitigation actions assessed.

For instance, if a project to install a solar plant is included in a strategy

to increase solar generation capacity is estimated at the national

level.

The mitigation actions are not only projects implemented, but also plans which are

described within general policy frameworks. Policy frameworks are not necessarily

mitigation actions. They include overall objectives and strategic lines to follow that,

sometimes, are not translated into real lines of action. Thence, it is important to highlight

that this GHG mitigation assessment has not included aspirational objectives which are

not translated into lines of action. The policy frameworks evaluated for identifying

mitigation actions are the following:

National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period up to

2030

National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Water Sector Reform Program of the Republic of Tajikistan

Program for providing the population with clean drinking water

Development Program for Housing and Public Utilities of the Republic of

Tajikistan

State Target Program for the Development of the Transport Complex of the


Agricultural Reform Programme of the Republic of Tajikistan

Pasture Development Program of the Republic of Tajikistan

Strategy for the development of industry in the Republic of Tajikistan

The state program for the development of new irrigated land and the restoration

of land that has been abandoned from agricultural circulation in the Republic of

Tajikistan

Comprehensive livestock development program

State environmental program

Power Sector Development Master Plan


These policies, strategies and programmes led to the implementation of various

mitigation actions in line with the main objectives established in them.

Nevertheless, in the context of this assignment, several of these strategies have been

directly considered in the different emission scenarios. This is the case, for instance, for

the “Forest Sector Development Strategy for 2016-2030”, for which a direct GHG

emission impact for its implementation has been estimated.

Regarding the scenarios, we have selected mitigation actions and mitigation options for

showing the mitigation effort made since 2015 (the implementation of the NDC), the effort

which is planned to be made in the future and the possibilities to make further effort to

raise the mitigation ambition of the country. With this idea, several scenarios have been

designed:

Table 2. Mitigation actions and mitigation options included in the scenarios

Mitigation actions and options included WoM WeM WaM

Mitigation actions implemented/finished after

2015

× ×

Mitigation actions adopted after 2015 × ×

Mitigation actions planned ×

Mitigation options (additional) ×

With Existing Measures (WeM) Scenario: This policy scenario is built from the WoM

considering the effect of mitigation actions under implementation since 2015. This

includes mitigation actions that were adopted after 2015 but their implementation not yet

finalized.

With Additional Measures (WaM) Scenario: This policy scenario is built from the WeM

considering the mitigation actions planned to be implemented in the future and the impact

of the main mitigation options identified additionally to the previous actions. This policy

scenario represents the maximum GHG emission level that Tajikistan could achieve with

the implementation of the key mitigation alternatives available.

The differences between scenarios are only explained by the different policy

implementation, i.e. the underlying projection methodology is the same in all scenarios.

How is the mitigation impact of the mitigation actions assessed?

Three steps are followed for estimating the mitigation impact of actions:

1. Identify the IPCC category or categories affected by the mitigation action.

2. With the information available regarding the scope of the action, evaluate how

the mitigation action impact the activity data and/or emission factors of the

emissions estimated in the WoM.


3. Design an estimation method for obtaining the overall impact of the mitigation

action. Overall, there are two types of estimation methods for estimating the

mitigation impact:

C) Estimate the GHG emissions in two scenarios for the mitigation action:

a reference scenario and a reduction scenario. The impact of the action

is then calculated as GHG Emissions in the reference scenario minus

the GHG emissions in the reduction scenario.

The reference scenario is ideally consistent with the WoM, and only

considers the activity data affected by the mitigation action. It represents

the technology and process in place before policy implementation.

The reduction scenario includes an estimation of the emissions of the

new situation, after policy implementation. Assumption are often needed

on the scope and the new technology/process implemented.

D) Estimate directly the mitigation impact of the action, i.e. the GHG

emissions reduction applicable to the change produced by the

implementation of the mitigation action. In these cases, only the

difference between the scenarios for mitigation action (reference and

reduction scenarios) is estimated.

2. Methodological principles

As mentioned above, this project follows the nomenclature, good practices and allocation

of emissions specified in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. Therefore, the nomenclature used

is the following:

Table 3. Nomenclature used

Inventory sector Code

Energy 1

Industrial Process and Products Use (IPPU) 2

Agriculture, Forest and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 3

Waste 4

Each sector comprises individual categories (in capital letter), sub-categories (number)

and sources/sinks (lowercase letter).

The following table briefly describe the nature of the emissions allocated in each sector:


Table 4. Emissions by sector

Inventory

sector

GHG emissions

Energy All GHG emissions arising from combustion and fugitive releases of

fuels. Emissions from the non-energy uses of fuels are generally not

included here, but reported under Industrial Processes and Product

Use

Industrial Process

and Products Use

(IPPU)

GHG emissions from industrial processes that chemically or physically

transform materials; and GHG emissions from the consumption of

products (refrigerants, non-energy consumption of fuels, solvents, etc)

Agriculture, Forest

and Other Land

Use (AFOLU)

GHG emissions from managed lands and ecosystems

Waste GHG emissions from the treatment of waste and wastewater.

The basic equation for estimating the emission of one category is the following:

1 𝐸𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑐,𝑔,𝑡 = 𝐴𝐷𝑐,𝑡 ∙ 𝐸𝐹𝑐,𝑔,𝑡

Where

𝐸𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑐,𝑔,𝑡 = 𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑐, 𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑔 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑡

𝐴𝐷𝑐,𝑡 = 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑐, 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑡

𝐸𝐹𝑐,𝑔,𝑡 = 𝐸𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑐, 𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑔 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑡

The estimates of emissions and removals– in its simplest form- correspond to a direct relation

between an emission factor (emission rate by unit of activity) and the activity data which

represents the corresponding level of activity.

The activity data describes the annual magnitude of one activity (for instance, production, fuel

consumption, etc., at national level, for one category and one year).

The emission factor is the amount of gas emitted by unit of activity (for instance, Gg of CH4 by

tonne of fuel consumed). Default emission factors are provided by the 2006 IPCC Guidelines

for the direct GHGs emissions.

In many cases, the activity data available do not correspond to the emission factor available

or used. In these cases, the data need to be converted using conversion factors. In such cases,

the equation is the following:

2 𝐸𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑐,𝑔,𝑡 = 𝐴𝐷𝑐,𝑡 ∙ 𝐸𝐹𝑐,𝑔,𝑡 ∙ 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑖ó𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟

All the equations require a statistical value which needs to be obtained from the entities which

regularly collect the data.


Several IPCC methods can be used for estimating emissions and removals. The choice of one

method depends on the availability of data, the current circumstances of the country, and the

human and financial resources to elaborate on the inventory.

The global warming potentials used for the calculation of the total GHG emissions are those

used in the NDC, i.e. the GWP of the AR4, as follows:

Table 5. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) used

Global Warming

Potential

Gas GWP

CO2 1

CH4 25

N2O 298

PFC - 14 7 390

PFC - 116 12 200

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

The decision about the GWP was due to the fact that the NDC of Tajikistan used AR4

GWP.

Further, it is worth highlighting that the principles followed in this GHG emission

assessment are also those of 2006 IPCC for inventories calculation, as follows:

Transparency means clear documentation and reporting at a level of disaggregation that

sufficiently allows the reader to understand how the estimation was performed. The

transparency of the estimation is fundamental to enable its use and improvement.

Consistency means that estimates for any different years, gases and source categories

are made in such a way that differences in the results between years and source

categories reflect real differences in emissions. Annual emissions, as far as possible,

should be calculated using the same method and data sources for all years, and resultant

trends should reflect real fluctuations in emissions and not the changes resulting from

methodological differences.

Comparability means that the estimates made can be compared with other estimates

made following 2006 IPCC Guidelines, such as the national inventories of other

countries. This can be achieved by using accepted methodologies of 2006 IPCC

Guidelines.

Completeness means that estimates are reported for all gases, all relevant source

categories and all years and for the entire territorial areas.

Accuracy means that emissions are neither overestimated nor underestimated, as far

as can be judged and with uncertainties reduced as far as practicable.


Section 3 - Current GHG emission

profile

The GHG emissions of Tajikistan are dominated by the contribution of the Agriculture,

Forestry and Other Land Use sector, followed by the Energy, Industrial Process and

Product Use (IPPU) and waste sectors, in this order.

Table 6. GHG emissions by sector in Tajikistan

IPCC sector 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1 Energy 4,046 1,430 2,131 1,581 2,069 2,364 3,843 3,504

2 Industrial Processes and Product Use

2,161 2,204 1,849 1,804 1,605 1,510 1,746 1,991

3 Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use

1,958 3,217 3,684 3,781 3,891 3,910 3,934 4,003

4 Waste 1,099 1,246 1,283 1,317 1,351 1,382 1,419 1,454

Total National Emissions and Removals

9,263 8,097 8,948 8,483 8,916 9,165 10,942 10,953

To obtain these emissions, several adjustments have been made from the GHG

national inventory in order to use this information for the development of GHG

emission scenarios and the estimation of impact of mitigation actions. The most

relevant changes from the inventory are the following:

Category 4D1 Domestic wastewater has been recalculated. These

emissions were assumed to be zero in the inventory. However, the discharges of

water of the 100% of the population have to be considered by the inventory,

according to 2006 IPCC Guidelines. To solve this issue, a tier 1 approach of the

2006 IPCC Guidelines have been followed for estimating the emissions of this

category in the historical period.

Category 4C Incineration and open burning of waste has been calculated to

account for 100% of the emissions of the solid waste generated. Category 4A

Solid Waste Disposal only considered the urban population, of which 74% of

waste was sent to landfills. The emissions from the remaining 26% of waste are

not considered by the inventory. Based on 2006 IPCC Guidelines, "In a

developing country, mainly in urban areas, Fraction of population burning waste

can be roughly estimated as being the sum of population whose waste is not

collected by collection structures and population whose waste is collected and

disposed in open dumps that are burned." Additionally, the emissions from the

rural population are not considered. Open burning practices may occur in the

rural areas of the country. Indeed, open burning practices occur in Tajikistan, as

ascertained in the following sources:


http://www.seas.columbia.edu/earth/wtert/sofos/Boboeva

_thesis.pdf

https://issuu.com/zoienvironment/docs/ca-waste-eng

https://www.weinternational.asia/solid-waste-

management-in-tajikistan/

Therefore, in order to consider 100% of the emissions from solid waste in the

country, category 4C Incineration and open burning of waste has been calculated,

considering that the 26% of the urban population and all population of rural areas

of Tajikistan burn wastes (half of the wastes generated), assuming that all food

and wood wastes are re-used.

Category 2F Product Uses as substitutes for ODS has been calculated. The

emissions from the use of fluorinated gases in refrigeration and air conditioning,

foam blowing agents and aerosols occur in the country, but these emissions were

not estimated in the national inventory. As there is no data available to implement

2006 IPCC methodologies, an estimate based in the inventory of Armenia7 has

been performed to complete the national GHG emissions of the inventory.

The following table shows the detailed GHG emissions at category level, to provide a

better understanding of the mitigation possibilities from the current GHG emission level:

Table 7. Breakdown of GHG emissions in Tajikistan

IPCC Category 2004 2010 2015 2016

Energy

1A1 Energy Industries 283 251 1,099 1,736 1A2 Manufacturing industries and

construction 488 392 260 309

1A3 Transport 408 256 255 149

1A4 Commercial/residential/institutional 2,835 484 2,166 1,239

1B1 Fugitive emissions from solid fuels 2 5 25 33 1B2 Fugitive emissions from oil and natural

gas 29 41 37 38

IPPU

2A Mineral Industry 118 177 744 1,032

2C Metal Industry 1,806 1,761 702 652

2F Product Uses as substitutes for ODS 237 267 300 307

AFOLU

3A1 Enteric fermentation 2,370 3,485 4,053 4,173

3A2 Manure management 476 690 793 818

3B Land - 1,461 - 1,512 - 1,591 - 1,598

7 Armenia has been chosen as is the closest country with a complete inventory. The estimate followed assumed that per capita emissions of F-gases in Tajikistan are half the per capita emissions of Armenia, assuming the differences in the economic structure between countries would involve significant differences in the consumption of these gases.

http://www.seas.columbia.edu/earth/wtert/sofos/Boboeva_thesis.pdf

http://www.seas.columbia.edu/earth/wtert/sofos/Boboeva_thesis.pdf

https://issuu.com/zoienvironment/docs/ca-waste-eng

https://www.weinternational.asia/solid-waste-management-in-tajikistan/

https://www.weinternational.asia/solid-waste-management-in-tajikistan/


3C Aggregate sources and non-CO2 emissions sources on land 572 555 678 611

Waste

4A Solid waste disposal 163 218 259 266

4C Incineration and open Burning 403 452 510 522

4D Wastewater treatment and discharge 533 576 650 666 Total 9,263 8,097 10,942 10,953

Note – The categories/emission sources with no emissions estimated in the historical

period have not been included in this table.

Some emission sources occurring in Tajikistan have not been considered in this

assignment, as they were not included in the national inventory and could not be

estimated by the working team. These missing categories are the following:

Emissions from N2O in Anaesthesia

Use of F-gases (SF6) in electrical equipment

Emissions of NMVOC and indirect CO2 from solvent use and products containing

solvents (such as paints) used.

Nevertheless, it has to be noted that the magnitude of these emissions is not likely to be

significant for national total GHG emissions.

The analysis of the emissions estimated in the historical period at category level

(illustrated in the previous table) is essential to understand the GHG emission projections

estimated and the mitigation potential of the country.

The largest contributor to historical period GHG emissions is enteric fermentation

(IPCC sub-category 3A1), with a contribution that ranges from a 25.6 per cent in 2004 to

a 38.1 per cent of national total emissions in year 2016. The increasing contribution of

this sub-category is driven by the growing population of cattle, which increased by a 95.8

per cent in the period 2004-2016. This is also the reason for the growing emissions from

manure management, that contributed with a 7.5 per cent to national total GHG

emissions in 2016.

The second contributing activity to national total GHG emissions is energy industries

(IPCC sub-category 1A1), with an increasing share that reached a 15.9 per cent of

national total emissions in 2016, from only 3.1 per cent in 2004. This increasing trend is

explained by the commissioning of a new power plant in Dushanbe in year 2014, which

reduced energy shortages but significantly increased anthracite consumption and GHG

emissions.

The carbon stock changes which occurred as a result of land use change and forestry

activities (IPCC category 3B) leaded to steady CO2 removals from the atmosphere,

within the range 14.6-18.7 per cent of national total GHG emissions in the period 2004-

2016. This contribution makes this category the third largest contributor to Tajikistan

GHG emissions in the historical period.


Fuel consumption in the residential, commercial, and institutional sectors (IPCC

sub-category 1A4) is shown as the fourth largest contributor to national total GHG

emissions, with a decreasing contribution from 30.6 per cent in 2004 to a 11.3 per cent

in 2016. This decrease is explained by a sharp reduction of natural gas consumption,

which was partially covered by anthracite consumption in these sectors, specially from

year 2014.

The activity levels of the mineral industry (IPCC category 2A) raised substantially in the

historical period, leading this category to reach a 9.4 per cent of national total GHG

emissions in 2016. This increase is explained by the abrupt grow of clinker production

levels due to the commissioning of new production plants in years 2014-2016.

Emissions from solid waste management systems, represented in categories 4A solid

waste disposal and 4C incineration and open burning represented a 7.2 per cent of

national total emissions in 2016, with slight variations in the historical time series. The

emissions from solid waste are driven by the number of population, as the waste

generation rate is assumed to remain constant in this period.

The remaining emission categories and subcategories of Tajikistan have lower

contribution to national total GHG emissions. Nevertheless, these other sources together

account for a 25.2 per cent of national total GHG emissions in 2016. Sources with

significant GHG emissions within this group includes industry emissions within

categories 2C Metal Industry, 4D Wastewater treatment and discharge and 1A2

Manufacturing industries and construction.


Section 4 - Without Measures Scenario

The Without Measures Scenario (WoM) represents the GHG emissions of Tajikistan with

no changes in the circumstances of the latest year for which observed information is

available, i.e. 2016. In the context of our assignment, this means that this scenario does

not consider the future mitigation impact of any mitigation action under implementation

after 2015. Nevertheless, the GHG emissions estimated for the historical period might be

influenced by the impact of mitigation actions implemented before 2015; the effect of

these mitigation actions is thus which is already incorporated in the observed in years

2004-2015. This impact is estimated from year 2015 within the policy scenarios.

The estimation of the WoM scenario is the key methodological step for obtaining national

total GHG emission projections. The other policy scenarios considering different degree

of policy implementation (the WeM and WaM scenarios) are calculated from the WoM

considering the mitigation impact estimated for the different mitigation actions and

mitigation options identified.

The WoM is projected relying on available forecasts that explain the future context of the

country, such as GDP, population, or electricity demand. The methodological details of

the projections, data used, and results obtained are detailed in this section. The summary

of the GHG emissions obtained is illustrated in the following figure.

Figure 2. GHG emission projections by scenario and NDC targets of Tajikistan

(Gg CO2-eq)

The GHG emission profile of the country remains relatively stable in the WoM. In line

with the GDP forecast of the Industrial scenario of the National Development Strategy,

the contribution of agriculture to national total emissions is reduced, while the Energy

and IPPU emissions increase its contribution. The contribution of the Waste and FOLU

sectors are also slightly reduced.


Figure 3. Sectoral Contribution to GHG emissions in 2016 and 2030 (%)

The following sections provide additional details on the general approach for calculating

the WoM and the details of the estimations made at sectoral level.

1. Methodological approach

The emissions from the national GHG emission inventory (time series 2004-2016) have

been generally projected differentiating between activity data and emission factors

following equation 1. Projections estimates have been performed at the highest

disaggregation level available in the inventory. The projection of the activity data of the

inventory is driven by different factors, such as the level of activity (production, population

or energy demand, among others), while the evolution of the emission factors is driven

by other factors such as technology.

The projection methodologies used in the project are framed under the methodological

approach defined in chapter 8, Part A, of EMEP/EEA 2019 Guidebooks8.

In the cases where complex9 methodologies are used by the inventory, the same

methodology has been used for projections. In the cases were the same methodology

could not be used, the implied emission factor and the most representative activity data

series have been used for projecting.

8 https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2019/part-a-general-guidance-chapters/8-projections/view

9 Methodologies not following the basic estimation equation of activity data multiplied by emission factor, but other methodological approaches such as mass balances, models or multivariate equations.

https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2019/part-a-general-guidance-chapters/8-projections/view

https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2019/part-a-general-guidance-chapters/8-projections/view


1.1. Projection of activity data

The projections of GHG emissions are performed considering the industrial scenario10 of

the national development strategy 2030 as a main macroeconomic reference. A set of

projected variables that define a future macroeconomic framework for the country have

been used for projecting the activity data of the inventory to 2030. The variables available

are the following:

Table 8. Projections of variables (proxies) available at national level

Name of the Proxi Units 2004 2016 2020 2025 2030

GDP Agriculture Million USD 399 1,417 1,701 2,277 3,047

GDP Industry Million USD 553 1,055 1,500 2,036 2,829

GDP construction Million USD 88 838 760 1,032 1,433

GDP Services Million USD 342 1,069 1,296 1,734 2,321

GDP transport Million USD 138 883 767 1,027 1,374

GDP Other Million USD 326 906 1,685 2,255 3,018

GDP total Million USD 2,076 6,953 8,604 11,557 15,623

Total fleet Thousand vehicles

289,544 435,408 471,798 519,663 572,620

Cars Thousand vehicles

236,486 376,171 412,786 455,749 503,184

Trucks Thousand Vehicles

35,290 39,262 40,400 42,461 44,627

Passenger transport (buses, minibuses)

Thousand vehicles

13,999 15,660 14,594 17,333 20,586

Special cars Thousand vehicles

3,770 4,315 4,019 4,120 4,225

Total population Thousand inhabitants

6,599 8,551 9,318 10,361 11,521

Rural population Thousand inhabitants

4,846 6,291 6,869 7,659 8,540

Urban population Thousand inhabitants

1,753 2,260 2,454 2,723 3,021

Note – the sources of this information are the national development strategy 2030 and

the Agency for Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan

The projections of the activity data have been done using different methods, depending

of the nature of the variables and its temporal evolution. In certain occasions, proxies

(the variables shown in previous table) can be used for projecting the activity data.

10 The inertial and innovative scenarios considered under the national development strategy have not been used in this project. The innovative scenario considers a set of policies that would transform the economic structure of Tajikistan. The equivalent to the innovate scenario in this project would be the WaM.


However, this is not always possible. The following are the type methods that have

been used for projecting the activity data of the inventory:

Methods for projecting the activity data:

The method selected for the projection of the activity data depends on the analysis of

the historical trend of the activity data and its relationship with those proxies available

which have a theoretical relationship with the activity data.

If the correlation and theoretical relationship of the activity variable with any proxy is

found to be high, and the characteristics of the data allows, the use of regression models

is preferred. However, the use of proxies in linear regression models is not always

possible, as it depends on the statistical characteristics of the series and its relationship

(stationarity and normality are required for both time series, and heteroscedasticity

should be avoided).

For this reason, other methods are also used for projecting the activity data. In some

cases, the growing rate of highly correlated proxies has been applied to the latest

observed data (i.e. the latest year available in the inventory). This assumes an elasticity

of 1, an equivalent marginal growth rate of the variables.

If the historical time series present a clear trend, stabilising at a certain level, the

projections reproduce the latest time period using the latest inventory year or any

arithmetic calculation.

The following methods have been generally used for projecting the activity data:

[1] Using the value of the latest inventory year or any arithmetic calculation.

Applying a growing rate

A specific growing rate [2a]

𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑡 = 𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑡−1 ∙ 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑡

The same growing rate of a correlated proxy [2b]

𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑡 = 𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑡−1 ∙ 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑥𝑦𝑡

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑥𝑦𝑡−1

Using linear regression models with proxies [3]

𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑡 =∝ + 𝛽 ∙ 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑥𝑦𝑡 + µ

In Tajikistan, the very high volatility of the historical time series of the inventory made

numerous time series non-stationary. This issue caused the relationship with the proxies

to be unstable, preventing the use of this method in many occasions.


1.2. Projection of Emission factors

The technological and process conditions and characteristics remain unchanged

(constant) in the projected period. Therefore, the projection of emission factor in the WoM

scenario is generally made using the latest emission factor value of the inventory. The

emission factors used are all default IPCC 2006 emission factors, as used in the national

GHG emissions inventory.

1.3. Projection of Emission

Once the activity data and emission factor are projected at sub-category level, the

emissions are calculated multiplying both variables, using appropriate conversion factors

to obtain emissions in terms of Gigagrams (Gg).


2. Methodology and assumptions by sector

2.1. Energy

1A1 Fuel combustion in Energy industries

The activity data of this category consists in fuel consumption by type in the production

of electricity, heat and in petroleum refining.

Fuel consumption in electricity and heat generation have been estimated applying the

growing rate of the time series of population (method [2b]). It is assumed that the

electricity and heat demand will evolve in line with population growth. This implies that

the electricity generation mix will remain constant, i.e. generating electricity with the

same electricity generation mix.

Petroleum refining is projected along category 1A2 using an annual growth rate of 5 per

cent (see further explanation below for category 1A2).

1A2 Fuel combustion in Manufacturing industries and

construction

The activity data of this category consists in fuel consumption by type in manufacturing

industries and construction.

The emissions of this category are theoretically highly correlated with GDP industry.

However, that is not the case for the historical years. The emission growth is lower than

the GDP growth (elasticity lower than 1) so we assumed a 5 per cent annual growth rate,

which is lower than the growth rate of GDP.

1A3 Fuel combustion in transport

The activity data of this category consists in fuel consumption by type in road

transportation and railways.

The consumption of diesel and gasoline have been projected using the method [3] with

the GDP component of transport. Nevertheless, this method cannot be used for natural

gas liquids and LPG due to the volatile time series for years 2004-2016. For this reason,

these two fuels have been estimated applying an annual growth rate of 2.5 %, assuming

the evolution of LPG and natural gas will remain growing at lower levels than gasoline

and diesel.


The emissions in railways have been projected applying the method [2b] with population,

assuming the GHG emissions of railways are highly correlated with the number of

inhabitants.

1A4 Other sectors

The activity data of this category consists in fuel consumption by type in the residential,

commercial and institutional sectors, as well as in agriculture, forestry, fishing and fish

farms.

The projection for the commercial and institutional sectors has been performed applying

the method [2b] with GDP, assuming the evolution of the activity levels will depend on

the evolution of GDP.

The projection for the residential sector has been performed applying the method [2b]

with the population, assuming the activity levels are driven by the number of inhabitants.

The projection for agriculture, forestry, fishing and fish farms has been performed

applying the method [2b] with GDP, assuming the evolution of the activity levels will

depend on the evolution of GDP.

1B Fugitive emissions

The activity data of this category consists in tonnes of coal, oil and gas produced in the

country. The relationship with the proxies available is not clear. For this reason, the

projection of these activity variables has been done extending the evolution of the

historical time series into the future following the adjusted equation resulting from the

trend in the historical series.

For the production of natural gas an annual grow rate of 2% has been applied.

2.2. IPPU

2A Mineral Industry

The activity data of this category consists in amounts of clinker, lime and glass produced,

as well as carbonates consumed in the ceramics industry.

The production of clinker, lime and glass should be highly correlated with GDP industry.

However, the statistical characteristics of the series do not allow to make a regression

between these variables. An annual growth rate of 5 per cent has been used instead.


The prospective growth of the consumption of carbonates is assumed to be lower than

GDP, as the nature of this industry (craftsmanship) cannot reproduce rapid growth levels.

2C3 Aluminium production

The activity data of this category consists in amounts of aluminium produced.

The projections of this sub-category are estimated using the method [2b] with the GDP.

The aluminium industry will meet the demand of product needed for increasing national

added value at a rate of GDP growth.

2F Product Uses as Substitutes for Ozone Depleting

Substances

This category was not estimated in the national inventory. For this reason, an estimate

based on the GHG emissions per capita has been followed (see section 3 Current GHG

emission profile for further information). The same rate per capita is applied to the time

series of population to obtain the GHG emissions in all the projections period.

2.3. AFOLU

3A1 Enteric fermentation and 3A2 Manure Management

Fuel combustion in Energy industries

The activity data of this category consists of annual average population of livestock by

animal category. Livestock is disaggregated to the following categories:

Dairy Cows

Other Cattle

Sheep

Goats

Camels

Horses

Mules and Asses

Swine

Other (please specify) Poultry

For the years 2017-2020, the official data from the "Comprehensive Program for the

Development of the Livestock Industry in the Republic of Tajikistan for the years 2018-

2022" were used. For the remaining projection period, the 12 years regression method

with GDP of Agriculture was used, because GDP of agriculture of Tajikistan is highly

correlated to livestock population.


3B1 Forest land

The activity data of this category consists of the total area of forest land. The area of

forest land has a low inter-annual variation. Therefore, for forecasting the area of forest

land, the five-year average method was selected.

3B2 Cropland and 3B3 Grassland

According to the national inventory, the only significant source / sink category of 3.B is

3.B.1. The other categories contribute to a net sink of 0.13kt CO2, which is lower than

the uncertainty level of the projections. These minor sinks were projected by simple

extrapolation of the historical emissions.

3C3 Urea application, 3C4 Direct N2O Emissions from

managed soils and 3C6 Indirect N2O Emissions from

manure management

The activity data of this category consists of the annual amount of urea fertilization. To

forecast the urea fertilization the “5 years regression total GDP Agriculture” method was

applied, because it is considered that fertilizer application is highly correlated to GDP

Agriculture.

3C7 Rice cultivation

The activity data of this category consists of the annual harvested area. To forecast the

future rice area the “5 years average” method was applied. This method was selected

because the trend of rice cultivation area of the last 3 years seems to stabilize.

2.4. Waste

4A Solid Waste Disposal

The IPCC 2006 FOD model11 has been used to calculate the CH4 emissions of this

category for both the historical and the projected period. The time series of population

and the parameters used in the national GHG emission inventory for waste composition,

11 https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/5_Volume5/IPCC_Waste_Model.xls

https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/5_Volume5/IPCC_Waste_Model.xls


waste generation per capita, percentage of waste going to landfill and distribution of solid

waste disposal sites for the calculation of the methane correction factor.

4C Incineration and open burning of waste

This category was not estimated in the national inventory. For this reason, an estimate

based on population has been estimated (see section 3 Current GHG emission profile

for further information). The same approach using the time series of population is

followed to obtain the GHG emissions in all the projections period.

4D Wastewater treatment and discharge

This category was only partially estimated in the national inventory. For this reason, an

estimate based on population has been estimated (see section 3 Current GHG emission

profile for further information). The same approach using the time series of population is

followed to obtain the GHG emissions in all the projections period.


Section 5 - Implemented and adopted

mitigation actions

The following are the mitigation actions under implementation since 2015 which lead to

GHG emission reductions in Tajikistan. Even if the mitigation action was implemented

before 2015, its impact is only estimated since 2015. The rationale for choosing 2015

as the reference year is to show the mitigation effort in Tajikistan since the first

submission of the NDC, i.e. 2015. The impact of these actions is considered in the WeM

scenario.

1. Energy

The following are the mitigation actions which lead to GHG emission reductions in the

energy sector in Tajikistan.

1.1. Regional Power Transmission Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at

https://www.adb.org/projects/43150-022/main#project-overview.

Description of the action: The project is critical for energy security in Tajikistan and will

improve regional connectivity and support power trade. Additionally, the project will also

improve energy efficiency and overall performance in the power sector.

It targets the expansion and modernization of the electricity transmission network by

building two new 220 kV single-circuit transmission lines totaling 140 km of overhead line

(OHL). It will also in whole or partially rehabilitate six transmission substations at

Kairakkum, Asht, Geran, Rumi, Baipaza, and Regar. A third output is to put a SCADA

system in place which is linked to a National Dispatch Centre in Dushanbe, and 32 priority

substations across the country (capable of expansion to 204 national substations). The

construction of these facilities will be done through three design, supply and install

contracts, including testing and commissioning.

The project will also pave the way for much needed reforms by implementing a sector

operational performance improvement program targeting Barki Tojik. This program

comprises the following activities: the development of strategic and business plans and

corporate governance changes; commercial, operating and financial plans; project

management and training; the preparation of accounting and management information

systems; and the preparation of technical or operational performance audits. The

program also includes reviews of sector-wide policy and institutional issues followed by

a sector reform program with specific action plans and their implementation. The reform

https://www.adb.org/projects/43150-022/main#project-overview


program will be supported by ADB through the proposed project implementation. Least-

cost sector infrastructure development master plan is an additional output.

Assumptions: The estimation of the mitigation impact is based on the assumption that

the grid loss will be reduced in the new transmission network, reducing the GHG

emissions of the national electricity system. GHG emissions loses from the transmission

network are calculated applying a default loss rate to the total emissions estimated for all

the electricity produced in the country. Total emissions from the production of electricity

are calculated using the grid emission factor, which is estimated splitting the GWh

produced (from the electric balance from the Agency for Statistics) by the emissions of

category 1A1ai Electricity generation, which accounts for all the emissions from fuel

combustion in national Power Plants.

The projections of electricity production follow the same approach used in the WoM for

category 1A1 Energy Industries, growing as the population forecast.

The impact of the mitigation action is estimated as a difference of the emissions

calculated in a reference scenario and a reduction scenario. The reference scenario

represents the emissions (in the scope of the action) before policy implementation. The

reduction scenario represents the emissions after policy implementation.

Calculation by scenario = Electricity production (GWh) x Grid EF (Gg CO2-eq / GWh) x

Grid loss (%) = Gg CO2-eq

Implementation period: 2010-2020. The impact of the project is accounted since its

completion in 2020.

Table 9. Reference scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation

impact

Variable Value Units Source

Grid loss 18.60 %

UNEP-

GACMO

Amount transmitted National Total production GWh

Agency

for

Statistics

Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh Calculated

Table 10. Reduction scenario for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation

impact


Grid loss 10 % Link

Amount transmitted National Total production GWh

Agency

for

Statistics

Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh Calculated

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Transmission-and-distribution-losses-of-different-countries_tbl1_309137532


Results:

Table 11. GHG emission reduction impact (Gg CO2-eq)

Year Emissions in the

reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option

Impact of Mitigation

action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 20.48 11.01 9.47

2025 22.77 12.24 10.53

2030 25.32 13.61 11.71

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the Regional Power

Transmission Project has been completed, however, the operational aspect will be

monitored through the following indicators:

Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the rehabilitated transmission

substations at Kairakkum, Asht, Geran, Rumi, Baipaza, and Regar.

Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the new single-circuit

transmission lines.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for monitoring

the usage of the new network will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the

Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.


1.2. Green Energy Facility Project


https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/51666.html.

Description of the action: The project will enable authorities to rehabilitate the existing

electricity distribution and transmission infrastructure, improve energy efficiency and

reduce CO2 emissions. This will be achieved through the installation of smart meters and

the introduction of ASKUE (automated system for commercial metering of electricity) with

overall target of improving access to reliable power infrastructure.

Assumptions: There is no information about the number of meters installed, but the size

of the project is quite big (200,000,000 EUR), so it is assumed that smart meters are

installed in all households and business with current access to electricity. The impact of

other mitigation actions addressing the implementation of smart metering (such as

wholesale metering and transmission) are thus included under the impact of this

mitigation action.

Total GHG emissions from electricity are calculated using the grid emission factor, which

is estimated splitting the GWh produced (from the electric balance from the Agency for

Statistics) by the emissions of category 1A1ai Electricity generation, which accounts for

all the emissions from fuel combustion in national Power Plants for the production of

electricity.

The reduction of electricity consumption as a result of the installation of the smart

metering system is assumed to be 10%, as the average of the energy savings obtained

in several studies from the existent literature12.

Additionally, the energy demand and electricity consumption are projected using the

growth of the projected time series of population.

This project is complemented with other smart metering projects, which are not estimated

but considered in this calculation.

The impact of the mitigation action is estimated as follows:

Electricity consumption (GWh) x Reduction of energy consumption due to smart meters

x Grid EF (Gg CO2-eq / GWh) = Gg CO2-eq

Implementation period: 2020-2024

12 See for instance: https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy/downloads/smart-metering-report.pdf https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421517302793?via%3

https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/51666.html

https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy/downloads/smart-metering-report.pdf

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421517302793?via%253



impact

Variable Value Units

Number of meters 0 Number

Grid emission factor 0.0052 Gg CO2-eq / GWh


impact


Reduction of electricity consumption 10 %

Number of meters ? Number


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 63.07 56.76 6.31

2030 70.13 63.12 7.01

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project will be monitored

through the following indicators:

Number of smart meters installed in households.

Number of smart meters installed in businesses.


the installation of smart meters will be the Statistics Agency under the President of the


Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on a biannual basis.


1.3. Obigarm-Nurobod Road Project



Description of the action: The project consists of the construction of a 75 km long

detour of the existing section of M41 road between the towns of Obigarm and Nurobod,

which is planned to be inundated by the end of 2023. The M41 road is Tajikistan's primary

east to west road, which connects Dushanbe with the border to Kyrgyz Republic and

onwards to Kazakhstan and China.

The road is part of the CAREC corridor programme which seeks to expand economic

cooperation among the region's neighboring countries and is actively supported by

bilateral and multilateral development institutions. The Project will target one of the key

barriers to economic and social development in the country and efficient and reliable

functioning of transport corridors. The Project's principal objectives are the promotion of

regional trade via the development of reliable and safe road corridors, the development

of sustainable mechanisms for roads maintenance, and road safety improvements and

improvement of environmental and social operation standards.

Assumptions: This project will increase the vh*km, as the connection with neighboring

countries will be enhanced. Therefore, this project will have a positive impact on GDP,

but not in terms of GHG emissions. This PAM has not been estimated as its

implementation does not involve a direct GHG emission reduction.


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA



Kilometers of road constructed.

Number of personal cars using the newly developed Obigarm-Nurobod road.

Number of freight transport using the newly developed Obigarm-Nurobod road.




the construction and the usage of the road will be the Ministry of Transport of the




1.4. Khatlon Energy Loss Reduction Project



Description of the action: This project will target the modernization of a low-voltage

distribution grid in the cities of Kulob and Bokhtar, the construction of a new and an

upgrade of the existing 110/35/10 kW substation in Kulob, and the installation of

automatic billing and metering systems in both cities.

Assumptions: The impact of this action is already considered under 1.1. Regional

Power Transmission Project and under 1.2. Green Energy Facility Project. Therefore, its

implementation does not involve additional GHG emission reductions.


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 IE IE IE

2020 IE IE IE

2025 IE IE IE

2030 IE IE IE



Number of smart meters installed in Kulob.

Number of households equipped with automatic billing system in Kulob.

Number of smart meters installed in Bokhtar.

Number of households equipped with automatic billing system in Bokhtar.

Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the upgraded substation in

Kulob.

Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the new substation in Kulob.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entities responsible for monitoring

this action will be the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan

and the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.




1.5. Khatlon Public Transport


https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/khatlon-public-transport.html.

Description of the action: The project involves establishing a municipally owned

passenger transport operator providing services on basic routes in Kurgan-Tyube and its

suburban area in order to ensure a minimum standard of public transport service and

transport links.

It aims to improve public transport services in Khatlon Oblast, where the sector is poorly

regulated and lacking transparency. Regulation is currently limited and poorly enforced,

resulting in impaired service standards and environmental practices, and operational

efficiency is sub-optimal due to a lack of investment and operational resources.

Assumptions: The increase in GHG emissions in the transport sector in the area of the

project will be reduced by the implementation of public transport in the area of the project.

Because the project will only address a minimum standard of public transport that is in

place in the area, the impact of the mitigation action is not expected to be very significant.

The estimation of the impact of a mitigation action shifting private transportation to public

transportation requires information about the expected fleet, routes, and potential

passengers of the new public transport route. However, this information is not available

and only a rough estimate can be made.

Only 10 per cent of the population will use public transport (based on the share of public

transport in all transport modes of other countries

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachme

nt_data/file/787488/tsgb-2018-report-summaries.pdf). For this 10 percent of the

population, the emissions will be reduced by a 70% (based on the assumption that on

average, public transport consumes 3.4 times less energy per passenger kilometer than

automobiles. This ratio is even more favorable during rush hour

(https://www.uitp.org/sites/default/files/Decarbonisation%20-

%20the%20public%20transport%20contribution.pdf)).

For the reference scenario, it uses category 1A3b Road transportation in the WoM

scenario. The emissions attributable to Kurgan-Tyube are estimated using the population

series.



impact


Percentage of the population using public transport 0.1 %

https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/khatlon-public-transport.html

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/787488/tsgb-2018-report-summaries.pdf

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/787488/tsgb-2018-report-summaries.pdf

https://www.uitp.org/sites/default/files/Decarbonisation%20-%20the%20public%20transport%20contribution.pdf)

https://www.uitp.org/sites/default/files/Decarbonisation%20-%20the%20public%20transport%20contribution.pdf)



Reduction of emissions for the shift to public transport 0.7 %

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 3.89 3.78 0.12

2030 4.04 3.92 0.12



Number of provided services on the relevant routes.

Number of people in Kurgan-Tyube using private means of transport.

Number of people in Kurgan-Tuybe using public transport.


the shift to public transport will be the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Tajikistan.



1.6. Qairokkum HPP Climate Resilience Upgrade


https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/qairokkum-hpp-climate-resilience-

upgrade.html.

Description of the action: The Project will complete rehabilitation and modernization of

the Qairokkum hydro power plant (the "Qairokkum HPP"), which is the only power

generation facility in the Sugb region of Northern Tajikistan. The Project is expected to:

increase the installed capacity by 32 MW which, together with the 16 MW increase

under the first phase (OPID 41553), will result in an increase of the existing

installed capacity from 126MW to 174MW by installing new turbines;

prevent unnecessary discharge of water through spillways and allow generation

of more electricity with the same flow of water;

raise the safety level of the power plant and the dam; and

strengthen the power plant’s resilience to the expected impacts of climate change

through continued physical upgrades designed to take into account projected

increases in climatic and hydrological variability.

The project has been finalized in 2020.

Assumptions: The estimation of the impact is performed applying the grid emission

factor to the new energy produced using the new generated capacity, with the emissions

of the new hydro plant assumed to be zero.





electricity.

The capacity factor (hours of operation of the installed capacity) are calculated using

current data of electricity produced and capacity installed.

It is also assumed that in the absence of this action, the energy demand would have been

met using the same energy mix of year 2016 (the last inventory year).



impact



https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/qairokkum-hpp-climate-resilience-upgrade.html

https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/qairokkum-hpp-climate-resilience-upgrade.html



impact


New capacity 32 MW

Capacity factor 3,590 Full time hours

Mew annual electricity generated 115 GWh


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 0.60 0.00 0.60

2025 0.60 0.00 0.60

2030 0.60 0.00 0.60

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the modernization of the

Qairokkum power plant has been concluded, however, the operational aspect will be

monitored through the following indicators:

Amount of electricity in GWh generated by the modernized Qairokkum hydro

power plant.

Amount of electricity in GWh generated before the completed rehabilitation and

modernization of the Qairokkum hydro power plant.


the increased capacity of the hydro power plant will be the Ministry of Energy and Water

Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Timing: The operation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.


1.7. Golovnaya 240-Megawatt Hydropower Plant

Rehabilitation Project


https://www.adb.org/projects/46418-001/main#project-pds.

Description of the action: The proposed Project will increase supply of renewable

energy to national and regional power systems and refurbish electric and mechanical

equipment for power generation at Golovnaya Hydropower Plant (HPP) in Tajikistan. This

will increase availability of year-round clean power for domestic sales and for export to

Afghanistan. Furthermore, the Project will increase the generation capacity and

operational efficiency of the power plant.

The impact of the Project will be increased supply of renewable energy to national and

regional power systems from 743 GWh in 2012 to 1,130 GWh in 2026. It will generate an

increased weighted average generation efficiency of the power plant from a maximum

83% to 89%. Additionally, the rehabilitated Golovnaya HPP will have an increased

generation capacity from 240 MW to 252 MW.



of the new hydro plant assumed to be zero.





electricity.

The capacity factor (hours of operation of the installed capacity) are calculated using

current data of electricity produced and capacity installed.

It is also assumed that in the absence of this action, the energy demand would have been

met using the same energy mix of year 2016 (the last inventory year).



impact




impact

https://www.adb.org/projects/46418-001/main#project-pds



New capacity 12 MW


New annual electricity generated 43 GWh


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 0.23 0.00 0.23

2030 0.23 0.00 0.23



Amount of electricity in GWh generated by the rehabilitated Golovnava hydro

power plant.

Amount of electricity in GWh generated before the completed rehabilitation of the

Golovnava hydro power plant.


the increased capacity of the hydro power plant will be the Ministry of Energy and Water


Timing: The implementation of this action will be monitored on an annual basis.


1.8. Kulyab-Khalaikumb Road


https://www.isdb.org/projects/data/uid-pj0032508;.

Description of the action: The overall development objective of the project is to improve

the living conditions of the population and to support the economic growth of the country

by providing year-round, reliable and direct land transport service between the western

part of Tajikistan, including the Capital Dushanbe, and the eastern Region of Gorno-

Badakhshan.






Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the Kulayab-Khalaikumb

Road has been completed, however, the operational aspect will be monitored through

the following indicators:

Number of personal cars using the newly developed Kulyab-Khalaikumb road.

Number of freight transport using the newly developed Kulyab-Khalaikumb road.


the usage of the newly developed road will be the Ministry of Transport of the Republic

of Tajikistan.


https://www.isdb.org/projects/data/uid-pj0032508


1.9. Reconstruction of Ravshan Electricity

Substation Project (Islamic Development

Bank)


https://www.isdb.org/tenders/reconstruction-of-the-ravshan-electricity-substation-project

and at https://www.linerji-global.com/single-post/2015/10/27/Reconstruction-of-the-

Ravshan-Electricity-Substation.

Description of the action: The project aims at promoting economic growth and

improving the living standards in the Tursunzade city and Shahrinav regions through

supplying reliable electricity. The project would provide a huge support to agricultural

growth and setting up of small industries in these two regions and thus contribute to

poverty reduction.

The project consists of the supply and installation of two Power Transformers 220/110/10

kV (2x125MVA), Replacement of Electro Technical Equipment, Replacement of

Measuring and Control Equipment, Replacement of Relay Protection and Automation

Equipment, Replacement of Communication Equipment, Replacement of 220 kV SF6

Circuit Breakers, Replacement of 220 kV Current Transformers and Replacement of

Auxiliary Equipment, as well as equipment installation, reconstruction and site

improvement.

Assumptions: This project has an impact on the SF6 used in the electrical equipment.

However, this is not estimated in the inventory/WoM, so this PAM has not been

estimated.


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the reconstruction of the

Ravshan Electricity Substation has been concluded, however, the operational aspect will

be monitored through the following indicators:

https://www.isdb.org/tenders/reconstruction-of-the-ravshan-electricity-substation-project

https://www.linerji-global.com/single-post/2015/10/27/Reconstruction-of-the-Ravshan-Electricity-Substation

https://www.linerji-global.com/single-post/2015/10/27/Reconstruction-of-the-Ravshan-Electricity-Substation


Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the reconstructed Ravshan

Electricity Substation.


the increased capacity of the electricity substation will be the Ministry of Energy and

Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.



1.10. Regional Power Transmission



Description of the action: The Project will help Tajikistan achieve energy security,

improve regional connectivity, and support power trade. The Project will also improve

energy efficiency and overall performance in the power sector.

The project will build two new 220 kV single-circuit transmission lines totaling 140 km of

overhead line (OHL). It will also rehabilitate in whole or part six transmission substations

at Kairakkum, Asht, Geran, Rumi, Baipaza, and Regar. A third output is to put in place a

SCADA system linked to a National Dispatch Centre in Dushanbe, and 32 priority

substations across the country (capable of expansion to 204 national substations). By

doing so, it will expand and modernize electricity transmission systems, which will boost

energy trading with neighboring countries to meet winter shortages.

Assumptions: Transmission network modernization is a precondition to cutting system

losses, improving energy efficiency, and facilitating energy trade with neighboring

countries. However, this does not have direct GHG emission impacts that could be

estimated with the information available. This PAM has therefore not been estimated.


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the new single-circuit

transmission lines at the substations have been completed, however, the operational

aspect will be monitored through the following indicators:

Number of substations rehabilitated in whole.

Number of substations rehabilitated in part.

Number of SCADA systems put in place.

Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the rehabilitated six substations

at Kairakkum, Asht, Geran, Rumi, Baipaza, and Regar.

Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the newly implemented singe-

circuit transmission lines.




the increased capacity of the electricity substation will be the Ministry of Energy and




1.11. Wholesale Metering and Transmission


https://www.adb.org/projects/47017-003/main#project-pds;.

Description of the action: This project introduces a wholesale metering and billing

system for the national power company, Barki Tojik. The project will fund over 2,700

meters and introduce a new billing system to help reduce system power losses and

improve efficiencies. It will also build a 90 km transmission line connecting Panjakent

and Ayni regions to meet rising demand for power.

Assumptions: This PAM has not been estimated as it considered under 1.1. Regional

Power Transmission Project and 1.2 Green Energy Facility, and therefore does not

involve additional direct reductions of GHG emissions.


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of this project has been

finalized, however, the operational aspect of this project will be monitored through the

following indicators:

Number of smart meters installed.

Number of households equipped with automatic billing system.

Amount of electricity in GWh transported through the new transmission line.





https://www.adb.org/projects/47017-003/main#project-pds;


1.12. Regional: Promoting Low-Carbon

Development in Central Asia Regional Economic

Cooperation Program Cities


https://www.adb.org/projects/52122-001/main#project-overview;.

Description of the action: In order to synchronize the systems and achieve power trade

target so that Tajikistan can start to export power to Uzbekistan on an islanded mode,

the relay protection system in Tajikistan has to be modernized and new interconnection

points have to be established. The project will install modern relays, circuit breakers,

instrumental transformers and ancillary equipment and systems at eight 220kV and two

500kV interconnection points, establish two new 500kV interconnections, and provide

capacity building to Barki Tojik staff in reliability of parallel operations.

Assumptions: Transmission network modernization is a precondition to cutting system

losses, improving energy efficiency, and facilitating energy trade with neighboring

countries. However, this does not have direct GHG emission impacts that could be

estimated with the information available. This PAM has therefore not been estimated.


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA



Number of installed modern relays, circuit breakers, instrumental transformers

and ancillary equipment and systems.

Number of staff trained in reliability of parallel operations.


the modernization of Tajikistan’s relay protection system is the Ministry of Energy and



https://www.adb.org/projects/52122-001/main#project-overview;


1.13. Regional Corridor 1



Description of the action: The proposed additional financing will support an increase

in the scope of the current project by improving road section connecting Chashmasoron

to Kurgonteppa in Khalton province, improving safety in priority sections of the national

highway network.






Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA



Number of safety measures put in place.

Length in kilometers of improved road section.


the improved safety measures will be the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of

Tajikistan.







Description of the action: The project will improve the connectivity between the capital

Dushanbe and Kurgonteppa, which are two major cities and economic hubs in Tajikistan.

The road is a strategic north-south link, and one of the most heavily traveled roads in the

country.






Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA







Tajikistan.







Description of the action: The impact of the project will be enhanced regional economic

cooperation and inclusive economic growth in Tajikistan. The outcome will be improved

regional network connectivity.






Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA


completed, however, the operational aspect of the project will be monitored through the






Tajikistan.




1.16. Regional Electricity Transport Project

Background documents: The description of the project is available at http://www.casa-

1000.org/indexr.php

Description of the action: This project demonstrates landmark cooperation among the

Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The modern and efficient CASA-

1000 electricity transmission system will help transform the region and signify an

important step toward realizing the planned Central Asia-South Asia Regional Electricity

Market (CASAREM).

Assumptions: It was assumed that this project would be covered in the estimate made

under Regional Power transmission project.

Implementation period: ongoing negotiations between countries

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 IE IE IE

2020 IE IE IE

2025 IE IE IE

2030 IE IE IE



Length in kilometers of newly developed transmission line system (PTL)

connecting the four countries.

Proposal of entity responsible for monitoring: The entity responsible for

implementing and realizing the new electricity transmission system will be the Ministry of

Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.


http://www.casa-1000.org/indexr.php

http://www.casa-1000.org/indexr.php


1.17. Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project


https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P150816.

Description of the action: The objectives of the First Phase of Nurek Hydropower

Rehabilitation Project for Tajikistan are to rehabilitate and restore the generating capacity

of three power generating units of Nurek hydropower plant, improve their efficiency, and

strengthen the safety of the Nurek dam.

Assumptions: The electricity generation capacity is operating in the country in the

historical period. The project is essential to ensure the generation of electricity of the

plant, but additional capacity is not installed in the project. Additionally, the electricity

generation efficiency can be improved, but this leads to minimum GHG emission

reductions. For this reason, and for avoiding overlaps with other mitigation actions, the

impact of this action has not been estimated.


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 IE IE IE

2020 IE IE IE

2025 IE IE IE

2030 IE IE IE



Number of rehabilitated and restored power generating units.

Amount of electricity in GWh generated by the rehabilitated Nurek hydro power

plant.

Amount of electricity in GWh generated before the completed rehabilitation of the

Nurek hydro power plant.


the improved hydropower measures will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources

of the Republic of Tajikistan.


https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P150816


1.18. Dushanbe Public Transport


https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/dushanbe-public-transport.html.

Description of the action: The Project will help the Dushanbe State Communal Unitary

Trolleybus Company to rehabilitate its trolleybus infrastructure in the City, increase

energy efficiency and make the trolleybus services in the City more sustainable.

The project will bring substantial benefits due to improving quality, reliability and safety

of the public transportation in Dushanbe and contribute to the overall improvement of

energy efficiency and environmental conditions. It has the potential to attract more

passengers, which in turn reduces traffic congestion on roads and therefore decreasing

fumes and emissions from vehicles. However, the project can potentially increase the

electrical consumption in the city of Dushanbe.

Assumptions: There is no information in the project documentation about potential

energy efficiency improvements, but as similar technologies have the same electricity

consumption reduction, it is assumed that the electricity consumption is reduced by 20%.

The electricity consumption for transport in Dushanbe is estimated using population as a

proxy.

GHG emissions are calculated applying the grid emission factor to total electricity

consumption for transport in Dushanbe. The grid emission factor is estimated splitting

the GWh produced (from the electric balance from the Agency for Statistics) by the

emissions of category 1A1ai Electricity generation, which accounts for all the emissions

from fuel combustion in national Power Plants for the production of electricity.



impact


Electricity consumption for transport - -


impact




https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/dushanbe-public-transport.html


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 0.0214 0.0172 0.0043

2030 0.0238 0.0190 0.0048



Number of rehabilitated power distribution infrastructures.

Number of rehabilitated power substations.

Number of operational trolleybuses.

Number of people in Dushanbe using private means of transport.

Number of people in Dushanbe using public transport.


the improved public transport system will be the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of

Tajikistan.



1.19. Dushanbe Public Transport – Khujand

buses


https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/dushanbe-public-transport.html.

Description of the action: The Project will help rehabilitate the trolleybus infrastructure

in the city of Khujand, increase energy efficiency and make the trolleybus services in the

city more sustainable.

The project will bring substantial benefits due to improving quality, reliability and safety

of the public transportation in Khujand and contribute to the overall improvement of

energy efficiency and environmental conditions. It has the potential to attract more

passengers, which in turn reduces traffic congestion on roads and therefore decreasing

fumes and emissions from vehicles. However, the project can potentially increase the

electrical consumption in the city of Khujand.

Assumptions: There is no information in the project documentation about potential

energy efficiency improvements, but as similar new trolleybus technologies have reduced

electricity consumption by 20% in other countries, it is also assumed that the electricity

consumption for this project will be 20%. The electricity consumption for transport in

Khujand is estimated using population as a proxy.

GHG emissions are calculated applying the grid emission factor to total electricity

consumption for transport in Dushanbe. The grid emission factor is estimated splitting

the GWh produced (from the electric balance from the Agency for Statistics) by the

emissions of category 1A1ai Electricity generation, which accounts for all the emissions

from fuel combustion in national Power Plants for the production of electricity.



impact


Electricity consumption for transport - -


impact




https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/dushanbe-public-transport.html


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 0.0048 0.0039 0.0010

2030 0.0054 0.0043 0.0011



Number of rehabilitated power distribution infrastructures.

Number of rehabilitated power substations.

Number of operational trolleybuses.

Number of people in Khujand using private means of transport.

Number of people in Khujand using public transport.


the improved public transport system will be the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of

Tajikistan.



1.20. Rural Electrification Project


http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/133181571939952501/pdf/Disclosable-

Version-of-the-ISR-Rural-Electrification-Project-P170132-Sequence-No-01.pdf.

Description of the action: The project development objective is to provide electricity

access to target settlements in GBAO and Khatlon regions. It will provide 43,126 people

with access to electricity under the project by household connections (grid or off-grid).

Assumptions: The estimation of the impact of the project is performed by applying the

grid emission factor to the energy demand of the people of this area, assuming the

necessary renewable capacity will be installed. The annual electricity consumption needs

are calculated using the data of population and energy consumption of Tajikistan.

GHG emissions are calculated applying the grid emission factor to total energy demand.

The grid emission factor is estimated splitting the GWh produced (from the electric

balance from the Agency for Statistics) by the emissions of category 1A1ai Electricity

generation, which accounts for all the emissions from fuel combustion in national Power

Plants for the production of electricity.

It is assumed that new renewable electricity capacity will be commissioned to meet the

demand of 43,126 people and that the emissions of the new renewable plant are zero.

Additionally, it is assumed that in the absence of this action, the energy demand would

have been met using the same energy mix of year 2016 (the last inventory year).



impact




impact


Per capita electricity demand 0.001903 GWh

Population affected 43,126 Inhabitants



http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/133181571939952501/pdf/Disclosable-Version-of-the-ISR-Rural-Electrification-Project-P170132-Sequence-No-01.pdf

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/133181571939952501/pdf/Disclosable-Version-of-the-ISR-Rural-Electrification-Project-P170132-Sequence-No-01.pdf


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 0.43 0.00 0.43

2025 0.43 0.00 0.43

2030 0.43 0.00 0.43



Number of people with access to electricity by household grid connections.

Number of people with access to electricity by household off-grid connections.


the improved electricity access will be the Ministry for Energy and Water Resources of

the Republic of Tajikistan.



1.21. Sugd – Energy Loss Reduction Project


https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/sugd---energy-loss-reduction-

project.html.

Description of the action: The projects will supply and install new electricity meters,

meter reading systems and automated billing systems in the Sugd region of Tajikistan.

Its objectives are to reduce distribution network losses, improve quality of supply and

increase energy efficiency. As part of the project implementation, significant power loads

in the distribution network were pointed out resulting in poor quality of power supply and

associated losses; construction of new 110/10kV substations was considered.

Assumptions: The impact of this action is already considered under 1.1. Regional

Power Transmission Project and under 1.2. Green Energy Facility Project. Therefore, its

implementation does not involve additional GHG emission reductions.


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 IE IE IE

2020 IE IE IE

2025 IE IE IE

2030 IE IE IE




Number of newly installed electricity meters.

Number of newly installed meter reading systems.

Number of newly installed automated billing systems.

Number of newly constructed substations.





https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/sugd---energy-loss-reduction-project.html

https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/sugd---energy-loss-reduction-project.html


1.22. Long-Term Small Hydro Power Plant

Construction Program


https://policy.asiapacificenergy.org/sites/default/files/Long-

term%20Program%20on%20Small%20Scale%20Power%20Plants%20Construction%2

0for%202009-2020%20%28RU%29.pdf.

Description of the action: This project involves the construction of 66 small hydropower

plants with a total capacity of 80 MW.

Assumptions: The estimation of the impact of the project is performed by applying the

grid emission factor to the new energy produced using the new generated capacity. The

capacity factor (hours of operation of the installed capacity) are calculated using current

data of electricity produced and capacity installed.

GHG emissions are calculated applying the grid emission factor to the new electricity

generated. The grid emission factor is estimated splitting the GWh produced (from the

electric balance from the Agency for Statistics) by the emissions of category 1A1ai

Electricity generation, which accounts for all the emissions from fuel combustion in

national Power Plants for the production of electricity.

It is assumed that the emissions of the new hydro plant are zero and that in the absence

of this action, the energy demand would have been met using the same energy mix of

year 2016 (the last inventory year).



impact




impact


New capacity 80 MW




https://policy.asiapacificenergy.org/sites/default/files/Long-term%20Program%20on%20Small%20Scale%20Power%20Plants%20Construction%20for%202009-2020%20%28RU%29.pdf




Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 1.50 0.00 1.50

2025 1.50 0.00 1.50

2030 1.50 0.00 1.50




Number of small hydropower plants constructed.

Amount of electricity in GWh generated by the constructed small hydropower

plants.


the constructed small hydropower plants will be the Ministry of Energy and Water




1.23. Sustainable Fuels


https://www.mintrans.tj/sites/default/files/2017/gosudarstvennaya_celevaya_programm

a_razvitiya.pdf.

Description of the action: This mitigation action is encompassed under the "State

Target Program for the Development of the Transport Complex of the Republic of

Tajikistan". As part of this target program, Tajikistan will incentivize the change of

technologies in passenger cars, from diesel/gasoline cars to other cleaner alternatives

Assumptions: The estimation of the impact is based on the calculation of average

emissions by vehicle in 2026, with the project estimating that by 2026, 330 thousand

vehicles have shifted to gas.

Implementation period: 2012 - 2026


impact


Average GHG emissions by vehicle 0.00033 Gg CO2-eq / vehicle


impact


GHG emission reduction of LPG vehicles 0.11 %

Number of vehicles affected 330,000 Vehicles

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 0.00 0.00 0.00

2020 45.88 40.83 5.05

2025 93.66 83.36 10.30

2030 96.17 85.59 10.58



Number of incentivized technologies for passenger cars.

Number of diesel/gasoline cars in use in Tajikistan.

https://www.mintrans.tj/sites/default/files/2017/gosudarstvennaya_celevaya_programma_razvitiya.pdf



Number of electric cars sold in Tajikistan.

Number of hybrid cars sold in Tajikistan.


the change of technologies will be the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry for Energy

and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.



2. Industrial Processes and Product Use

In the project no actions under implementation since 2015 and with impact in IPPU

emissions have been identified.


3. AFOLU

The following projects, National Programmes and Strategies are the mitigation actions

which lead to GHG emission reductions in the AFOLU sector in Tajikistan.

3.1. Livestock and Pasture Development Project

Background documents: The impact brief of the project is available at

https://www.ifad.org/documents/38714170/41114919/TJ_LPDP_IA+brief.pdf/6221aa89-

fc03-2de0-892c-3376ce273cc5.

Description of the action: The Livestock and Pasture Development Project (LPDP) was

designed to increase the nutritional status and incomes of poor rural households in the

Khatlon region by boosting livestock productivity through (a) improvement of the

productive capacity of pastures and (b) through breeding and mating techniques

combined with (c) easier access to water.

The implementation of a rotational plan for pasture was expected to restore pasture land

and reduce degradation. According to the impact brief, 81,171 Ha of pasture land were

improved.

In addition, livestock and pasture development activities provided farming equipment and

improved seeds and fertilizers, built water points and sheds, and improved households’

access to rams for breeding and veterinary services. These activities were expected to

increase the water available for livestock, reduce the incidence of animal disease, and

improve self-sufficiency in fodder and grass production for the harshest seasons when

pastures cannot be reached. According to the impact brief of the project, the above

activities resulted in an increase of sheep and cattle weight by 17% and 27%

respectively.

The Project is supported by the International Fund for Agricultural Development.

Project duration: 2011-2017

Assumptions: The estimation of the mitigation impact is consistent with the data and

methods applied in the National Inventory of Tajikistan. The mitigation impact was

calculated by considering that the baseline emissions are those as included in the

inventory. Since the IPCC Tier 1 method was applied for the inventory, the same method

was applied to estimate the mitigation impact.

The potential GHG mitigation impact is associated to the following:

Increase of soil carbon stock by pastures’ improvement

Improve of livestock productivity

https://www.ifad.org/documents/38714170/41114919/TJ_LPDP_IA+brief.pdf/6221aa89-fc03-2de0-892c-3376ce273cc5

https://www.ifad.org/documents/38714170/41114919/TJ_LPDP_IA+brief.pdf/6221aa89-fc03-2de0-892c-3376ce273cc5



The general assumptions for the estimation of the mitigation impact that is linked to the

improvement of pastures are presented in the following table.

Table 51. General assumptions for the estimation of the soil carbon stock

increment due to pastures’ improvement

Land-use

category

Reference

soil

carbon

stock

Stock change factors

Representative

soil carbon

stock Parameter

s source

SOCref

(tC/ha) F(LU) F(MG) F(I) SOC (tC/ha)

Grassland

(pasture)

before

LPDP

4 1 0.9 1 3.6 National

inventory

Grassland-

improved

pasture

after LPDP

4 1 1.14 1 4.56

National

inventory

& 2006

IPCC GLs

Pasture land improved 81,171 Ha

Transition period for soils 20 years

Mitigation effect 14.29 ktCO2/year


Main assumption: the animal population would have increased to cover meat demand in

the absence of productivity increase. It is assumed that sheep and cattle population

would have increased by 17% and 27%, respectively, as the respective weight

increments according to the impact brief of the project.

Table 52. General assumptions for the estimation of the mitigation impact due to

Improvement of sheep livestock productivity

Variable Value Units Source Comment

Increase of weight 17%

Impact brief

of the

project

Annual equivalent

of affected sheep

livestock in project

area

16,045 heads

Project

Supervision

report

(2017)

1 ram for 34 sheep, 510 rams in

total (147 day gestation period

averaged over an entire year).

1-2 young sheep per birth.

EF enteric

fermentation 5 kg CH4/head/yr

National

inventory



Increase in EF due

to 17% more

weight

1.1475 kg CH4/head/yr Tier 1 2006

IPCC GLs

EF manure

management for

sheep

0.15 kg CH4/head/yr National

inventory

GWP of CH4 21 SAR IPCC

Mitigation effect 0.23 kt CO2eq/year


Improvement of cattle livestock productivity


Increase of weight 27 %

Impact brief

of the

project

Annual equivalent

of affected cattle


area

625 heads

Project

Supervision

report

(2017)

50 bulls, bull per cattle 1/50

(281 day gestation period


EF enteric

fermentation 47

kg

CH4/head/yr

National

inventory

Increase in EF due

to 27% more

weight

11 kg

CH4/head/yr

Tier 1 2006

IPCC GLs

EF manure

management for

cattle

1 kg

CH4/head/yr

National

inventory

GWP of CH4 21 - SAR IPCC


Results:


Year Impact of Mitigation

action

2018 14.65

2020 14.65

2025 14.65

2030 14.65




Hectares of improved pasture land.

Number of provided farm equipment to households.


Number of built water points and sheds.

Number of households with access to rams.

Number of households with access to veterinary services.

Number of livestock owned per household.


the Livestock and Pasture Development Project will be the Ministry of Agriculture and

the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.2. Livestock and Pasture Development Project

II


https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/project/id/2000000977/country/tajikistan.

Description of the action: The Livestock and Pasture Development Project II builds on

LPDP Phase I. The second of the project will reach out to an additional 38,000 rural

households in at least five communities in five districts of the Khatlon region. The project's

development goal is to contribute to the reduction of poverty in the Khatlon region and to

increase the nutritional status and incomes of some 38,000 poor households by

enhancing livestock productivity and resilience to climate change. In particular, the

project will focus on:

developing institutions

enhancing productivity and improving animal health

developing pasture management



Assumptions: The estimation of the mitigation impact is consistent with the data and





The potential GHG mitigation impact is associated to the following:








https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/project/id/2000000977/country/tajikistan


Land-use

category

Reference

soil

carbon

stock


Representative

soil carbon

stock Parameter

s source

SOCref


Grassland

(pasture)

before

LPDP

4 1 0.9 1 3.6 National

inventory

Grassland-

improved

pasture

after LPDP

4 1 1.14 1 4.56

National

inventory

& 2006

IPCC GLs

Pasture land improved 95,000 Ha




Main assumption: the animal population would have increased to cover meat demand in

the absence of productivity increase. It is assumed that sheep and cattle population

would have increase by 17% and 27%, respectively, as the respective weight increments

according to the impact brief of the LPDP I project.





Impact brief

of the

project

Annual equivalent

of affected sheep


area

50,431 heads

Project

Supervision

report

(2017)

1 ram for 34 sheep, 1603 rams

in total (147 day gestation

period averaged over an entire

year). 1-2 young sheep per

birth.

EF enteric

fermentation 5

kg

CH4/head/yr

National

inventory

Increase in EF due

to 17% more

weight

1.1475 kg

CH4/head/yr

Tier 1 2006

IPCC GLs

EF manure

management for

sheep

0.15 kg

CH4/head/yr

National

inventory








Impact brief

of the

project

Annual equivalent

of affected cattle


area

3,227 heads

Project

Supervision

report

(2017)

258 bulls, bull per cattle 1/50

(281 day gestation period


EF enteric

fermentation 47

kg

CH4/head/yr

National

inventory

Increase in EF due

to 27% more

weight

11 kg

CH4/head/yr

Tier 1 2006

IPCC GLs

EF manure

management for

cattle

1 kg

CH4/head/yr

National

inventory



Results:



action

2022 18.12

2025 18.12

2030 18.12



Hectares of improved pasture land.

Number of households with access to veterinary services.

Number of livestock owned per household.


the second phase of the Livestock and Pasture Development Project will be the Ministry

of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.3. Project "Support to Agriculture in the

Community"


https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/project/id/2000001284. The most recent

document about the project is the "Tajikistan 2000001284: CASP Supervision Report

January 2020".

Description of the action: The project is designed to stimulate inclusive economic

growth and poverty reduction in poor rural communities through improving access to

productive infrastructure and services that lead to sustainable agricultural production and

equitable returns. It aims to tackle the lack of access to modern farming technologies of

the poorest smallholders in remote villages and at supporting private-sector mechanized

service providers and maintenance services.

Project activities are organized into two components:

a) Strengthening rural institutions, by developing business-oriented small-plots

farmers groups and building the capacities of implementation service providers;

and

b) Improving agricultural productivity and business linkages, through stimulating the

use of modern agricultural technologies and infrastructures.

The project areas include some 225 villages in selected areas of Soghd and Khatlon

Regions and the Districts of Republican Subordination Region, thus reaching up to

48,160 households. Primary target groups are rural people living in extreme poverty, who

are either landless or producing a bare subsistence minimum on household plots;

subsistence and semi-subsistence farmers; rural underemployed.



Assumptions: The most recent document about the project ("Tajikistan 2000001284:

CASP Supervision Report January 2020") contains some quantitative information

(indicators) under Component 2, which might be linked with potential GHG mitigation

impact.

More specifically, the aim of component 2 of the project, which is entitled "Improvement

of agricultural productivity and business linkages", is to enhance the selected

communities’ productive capacity and production through the adoption of modern

agricultural technologies and equipment. This outcome will be measured by the following

indicators: (i) at least 20% increase in agricultural productivity (by main commodities);

and (ii) an additional 20,000 hectares serviced by machinery service providers (AMSPs).

We can make the following observations:

https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/project/id/2000001284


i. The 20% in agriculture productivity seems that is not related to an increment of

perennial crops but annual cropping. An increase of annual cropping may result

in increased retain of crop residues and thus increase in soil organic content from

residue input to soils. However, this increase will be lower compared to the one

that could have been achieved by increasing the perennial crops.

ii. On the other hand, an additional 20,000 hectares serviced by machinery service

providers would probably be linked with an increase of tillage activities, which

result in a decrease of soil organic carbon content.

Due to the above opposite and uncertain potential effects on GHG emissions of the

project, it is decided not to estimate a potential GHG mitigation impact associated to its

implementation.



Number of smallholders with access to modern farming technologies.

Number of smallholders with access to modern farming infrastructures.


the communal agricultural support will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of

Tajikistan.



3.4. Tajikistan Agriculture Commercialization

Project


https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P132652. The most

resent "Implementation Status and results report" was issued on 10 NOV 2019.

Description of the action: The project development objective (PDO) of the Agriculture

Commercialization Project for Tajikistan is to increase the commercialization of farm and

agribusiness products by improving the performance of selected value chains and

productive partnerships through increased access to finance and strengthened capacity

of project beneficiaries. The project comprises three components. The first component,

Improvement of Technical Knowledge and Skills in Support of Commercialization, will

contribute to the PDO by improving the technical knowledge and skills of participants in

key agricultural value chains and productive partnerships. Support will be provided in the

form of group-based interventions (training) and individual technical assistance (advisory

services). An estimated 12,500 people will benefit, including male and female heads of

small-scale farms, and management and staff of agri-business enterprises and agro-

processors. The second component, Access to Finance for Agribusiness Enterprises and

Small-Scale Commercial Farms, will support the commercialization of agricultural

products by improving access to medium-term finance for the larger agri-business

enterprises, providing start-up capital in the form of grants for small-scale farms involved

in productive partnerships, and by ensuring the availability of financing for value chain

support, which often requires short-term financing (such as, for contract farming schemes

and post-harvest handling activities). Potential investments include improved on-farm

technology, storage, processing, new products, marketing, quality enhancement and

food safety. An estimated 350 sub-financings are expected to be provided under this

component. The third component, Institutional Capacity Building and Project

Management, will strengthen the critical elements of the institutional framework and the

sector's academic knowledge base.

The Project is supported by the World Bank.


Assumptions: According to WB website, the project is associated to 24% of mitigation

of climate change.

The project is comprised by 4 components, namely:

Component I: Improvement of Technical Knowledge and Skills in Support of

Commercialization:(Cost $6.70M)

Component II: Access to Finance for Agri-Business Enterprises and Small-Scale

Commercial Farms:(Cost $22.90 M)



Component III: Institutional Capacity Building and Project Management:(Cost

$4.90 M)

Component IV: Entrepreneurship Training and Business Development Services

to MSMEs:(Cost $2.50 M)

However, no additional information is provided in the reports of the project (e.g. the recent

implementation and status report) that could be used to estimate the potential GHG

mitigation impact of the project. For example, no mitigation targets and respective

indicators were provided for the 4 components of the project, which are related to

activities, practices or technologies that could be linked to potential GHG impacts.

Example of such activities/practices/technologies could be the rotational grazing or

cultivation; agroforestry or silvo-pastoral systems; increase of the use of perennial crops;

feeding strategies to improve the quality of forage, changing herd management practices,

optimizing health and reproductive capacity, pasture management etc.

Therefore, the potential mitigation GHG impact of this project could not be estimated.



Number of people with improved technical knowledge and skills key agricultural

value chains.

Number of larger agri-businesses with access to medium-term finance.

Number of small-scale farmers with access to start-up capital grants.

Number of people with access to finance for value chain support.


the commercialization of farm and agribusiness products will be the Ministry of

Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.5. Dangara Valley Irrigation Project, Phase III


https://www.akelik.az/en/dangara-valley-irrigation-project-phase-iii.html.

Description of the action: Dangara Valley Irrigation Project is aimed at increasing

agricultural productivity in Dangara district of the Republic of Tajikistan. The Project will

also improve the water resources management of irrigation infrastructure through further

improvement of outcomes achieved under the Dangara Valley Irrigation Project, Phase-

I and Phase-II. This Project places emphasis on the improved water management of

combined irrigation and drainage system in general and on the irrigation aspects of the

system in particular. It is anticipated that this contract shall be the contract for Package

2 to carry out civil works.

The Project is supported by the Islamic Development Bank.


Assumptions: Dangara Valley project aims at increasing agricultural productivity by

improving irrigation infrastructure. Irrigation development is undertaken because of its

potential benefits in increasing farm level physical productivity. However, the relative

contribution of irrigation could result to both an increase and decrease of emissions of

GHGs. More specifically according to Kulshreshtha & Junkins (2001)13:

1. When water is released and applied to the fields, there may be a change in

cultural practices, as well as in the enterprise mix on the farm. These changes

could significantly alter the production mix, input demand for factors of production,

and may lead to increased emissions of GHGs. Major sources of such emissions

include the application of fertilizer and manure to crops, the decomposition of crop

residues, production of legume crops leading to fixing of nitrogen in the soil, and

soil carbon sequestration through tillage practices. These production-related

emissions are the direct farm-level emissions from agriculture. Emissions are also

associated to the storage of water in new reservoirs.

2. One of the major changes under irrigation may be the retention of nitrogen and

carbon in the soils. Where levels under natural conditions were low, as in the case

of Tajikistan, an increase in the total nitrogen and total carbon in irrigated fields is

13 Surendra Kulshreshtha & Bruce Junkins (2001) Effect of Irrigation Development on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Alberta and Saskatchewan , Canadian Water Resources Journal, 26:1, 107-127, DOI: 10.4296/cwrj2601107

https://www.akelik.az/en/dangara-valley-irrigation-project-phase-iii.html


expected. However, where initial levels were high, irrigation led to lower levels of

total nitrogen and carbon.

In addition, Lueking and Schepers (1985)14 have concluded by conducting field studies

that irrigation development has increased the total N and total C in cases where these

values were very low in the native condition. Furthermore, according to the IPCC special

report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (2000)15, because most irrigation is

located in arid and semi-arid regions, many irrigable soils are inherently low in soil organic

carbon in their native state converting dryland soils to irrigated agriculture may increase

soil organic carbon content in the soil by 0.05-0.15 t C ha-1 yr-1, with a modal rate of

0.10 t C ha-1 yr-1.

Given the poor organic matter content of soil in Tajikistan, it is decided to estimate the

potential GHG mitigation impact of the Dangara Valley irrigation project by assuming that

dryland soils were converted to irrigated agriculture which results in an increase of soil

organic carbon content in the soil by a modal rate of 0.10 t C ha-1 yr-1. .

Table 59. General assumptions for the estimation of the increase of SOC due to

improved irrigation


Area covered by the project 1750 ha

Increase of soil organic carbon content 0.1 t C ha-1 yr-1


Results:



action

2019 0.64

2020 0.64

2025 0.64

2030 0.64

14 LUEKJNG & SCHEPERS: CHANGES IN CARBON AND NITROGEN DUE TO IRRIGATED CORN DEVELOPMENT, SOIL SCI. SOC. AM. J., VOL. 49, 1985.

15 IPCC, 2000 - Robert T. Watson, Ian R. Noble, Bert Bolin, N. H. Ravindranath, David J. Verardo and David J. Dokken (Eds.), Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, Cambridge University Press, UK. pp 375





Hectares of irrigated land after the implementation of the Dangara Valley Project.

Hectares of irrigated land before the implementation of the Dangara Valley

Project.

Agricultural productivity in the Dangara district.


the increased agricultural productivity will be the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry

of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.6. Tajikistan Second Public Employment for

Sustainable Agriculture and Water

Resources Management Project


https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-

detail/P133327?lang=en#abstract. The most resent "Implementation Status and results

report" was issued on 30 DEC2019.

Description of the action: The development objectives of the Second Public

Employment for Sustainable Agriculture and Water Resources Management Project are

to: provide employment to food-insecure people through the rehabilitation of irrigation

and drainage infrastructure, increase crop production in response to improved irrigation

and drainage infrastructure, and support the development of improved policies and

institutions for water resource management, as a means to improve food availability and

food access for low-income people in poor rural areas supported by the project. There

are three components to the project. The first component of the project is public works

and rehabilitation of irrigation and drainage infrastructure. The second component of the

project is assistance in water resources management, including technical assistance for

policy and institutional reform. The third component of the project is project management.

A Project Management Unit (PMU) to be managed under the World Bank-financed

Ferghana valley water resource management project will be the main implementation

agency. It will be responsible for: implementation and coordination, financial

management and procurement, communication and awareness programs,

environmental management and safeguards, and monitoring and evaluation.



Assumptions: This project aims at increase crop production in response to improved

irrigation and drainage infrastructure, and support the development of improved policies

and institutions for water resource management

As in the case of Dangara Valley Irrigation Project, given the poor organic matter content

of soil in Tajikistan, it is decided to estimate the potential GHG mitigation impact of the

irrigation project by assuming that dryland soils were converted to irrigated agriculture

https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P133327?lang=en#abstract



which results in an increase of soil organic carbon content in the soil by a modal rate of

0.10 t C ha-1 yr-116.


improved irrigation





Results:



action

2020 92.23

2025 92.23

2030 92.23




Number of newly employed people through the rehabilitation of irrigation and

drainage infrastructure.

Number of newly developed or improved policies and institutions for water

resource management

Crop production after the implementation of the improved irrigation and drainage

infrastructure.


the project will be the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Energy and Water





3.7. Project "Reconstruction of the irrigation

system and improvement of its management

in the Zerafshan River Basin"


https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-

detail/P133327?lang=en#abstract. The most resent "Implementation Status and results

report" was issued on 30 DEC2019.

Description of the action: The project development objectives are to help the

Government of Tajikistan (i) strengthen the institutional base for irrigation planning and

management in the Zarafshon river basin; and (ii) improve the condition and

management of irrigation infrastructure in the Zarafshon river basin and adjacent districts

in the Syr-Darya basin. The project will increase food availability for rural people in the

project area and as such, contribute to the overarching objective of improving food

security.



Assumptions: This project aims at increase of crop production in response to improved

irrigation and drainage infrastructure.





0.10 t C ha-1 yr-117.


improved irrigation









Results:



action

2021 7.70

2025 7.70

2030 7.70




Crop production after the implementation of the improved irrigation and drainage

infrastructure.

Number of rural people in the Zarafshon river basin with sufficient access to food.


the increased crop production will be the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of

Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.8. Building Climate Resilience in the Pyanj

River Basin Project



Description of the action: The project aims to increase resilience to climate vulnerability

and change of communities in the Pyanj River Basin. The project's impact will be

improved livelihoods of Pyanj River Basin communities vulnerable to climate variability

and change. The project's outcome will be reduced adverse effects of climate variability

and climate change in 59 villages in 19 jamoats in the Pyanj River Basin.

The project is protecting at least 1,700 hectares of land from floods; providing 1,450

hectares of land with irrigation water; providing at least 4,150 households with a safe

water supply; and making microfinance services available to at least 1,000 households.

The Project is supported by the Asian Development Bank.



irrigation.





0.10 t C ha-1 yr-118.


improved irrigation








Results:



action

2020 0.53

2025 0.53

2030 0.53




Hectares of protected land from floods.

Hectares of land equipped with water irrigation systems.

Number of households with a safe water supply.

Number of households with access to microfinance services.


the climate resiliency in the Pyanj River Basin will be the Ministry of Agriculture and the

Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.9. Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program

for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB



Description of the action: The development objective of the Climate Adaptation and

Mitigation Program for the Aral Sea Basin Project for Central Asia is to enhance regionally

coordinated access to improved climate change knowledge services for key stakeholders

(e.g., policy makers, communities, and civil society) in participating Central Asian

countries, as well as to increase investments and capacity building that, combined, will

address climate challenges common to these countries. The project comprises of three

components. The first component, regional climate knowledge services, will provide

technical assistance, as well as minor civil works, goods (including software and

equipment), and training, at both the regional and national levels, to develop a unified,

integrated regional analytical platform for climate-resilient and low emission

development, with improved data, information, knowledge, and decision-support tools.

The second component, regional climate investment facility, will provide technical

assistance and facilitation support to plan, implement, and manage climate investments.

The second component consists of following two sub-components: (i) investment

financing; and (ii) capacity building and community support. The third component,

regional and national coordination consists of the following two sub-components: (i)

regional coordination; and (ii) national coordination.



Assumptions: This project aims at enhancing regionally coordinated access to improved

climate change knowledge services for key stakeholders (e.g., policy makers,

communities, and civil society) in participating Central Asian countries, as well as to

increased investments and capacity building that, combined, will address climate

challenges common to these countries. It is not linked with a direct - quantifiable

mitigation impact, as it mainly refers to capacity building, regional cooperation and

coordination, improved knowledge services.

In addition, the information that is provided in the reports of the project (e.g. the recent

implementation and status report) is not adequate for estimating the potential GHG

mitigation impact of the project. For example, no mitigation targets and respective

indicators were provided, which are related to activities, practices or technologies that

could be linked to potential GHG impacts. Example of such

activities/practices/technologies could be the rotational grazing or cultivation;

agroforestry or silvo-pastoral systems; increase of the use of perennial crops; feeding

strategies to improve the quality of forage, changing herd management practices,

optimizing health and reproductive capacity, pasture management etc.



Therefore, the potential mitigation GHG impact of this project could not be estimated.



Number of stakeholders with climate change knowledge on climate-resilient and

low emission development.

Quantity of investments to address climate change challenges.

Number of capacity building and community support activities carried out.


the climate adaptation and mitigation program will be the Committee for Environmental

Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.10. Climate Adaptation through Sustainable

Forestry in Important River Catchment Areas

in Tajikistan (CAFT)


https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/29916.html.

Description of the action: The objective of the CAFT project is: “Rehabilitation,

conservation and sustainable use of forests contribute to the adaptation of the country to

climate change and the conservation of biodiversity, as well as to the improvement of

livelihoods of the local population in the project areas”.

The CAFT project is the financial upscaling and follow up phase based on the lessons

learned and best practice of the GIZ project “Adaptation to Climate Change through

Sustainable Forest Management”. Both projects promoting Joint Forest Management

(JFM) and institutional capacity building of the Forestry Agency and State Forest

Enterprises (SFE) to be able to carry out sustainable forest management. The

components of the project are the following:

Afforestation and forest rehabilitation: Suitable project areas are identified, the

SFE and the JFM users carrying out forest planting activities according to the

approved Afforestation Manual.

Elaboration of forest management plans: Forest and Pasture Management Plans

are developed and implemented, including incentive packages and the promotion

of nurseries.

Joint Forest Management (JFM): Awareness campaigns along with a natural

resource assessment leading to an increase of JFM contracts with micro-forest

management plans.

Forest and plantation protection: On community level Pasture User Unions (PUU)

are supported with Pasture Mgt. Plans including incentives to reduce pasture and

forest user conflicts.

Institutional capacity building: The capacities of the Forestry Agency, staff of

SFEs and JFM user groups are increased to be able to carry out forest related

activities in a sustainable way.

The Project is supported by the German Development Bank.


Assumptions: Since the start of the project up to June 2018, 5,944 ha of forest area

were afforested and rehabilitated. The potential GHG mitigation impact will be estimated

by calculating the annual increase of biomass carbon stocks of afforested lands. The

same method and parameters are used as in the national inventory.

https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/29916.html


Table 67. General assumptions for the estimation of the potential GHG mitigation

impact


Afforested land 5944 ha

Average annual above-ground

biomass growth, Gw 6 t dm/(ha yr)

2006 IPCC GLs,

subtropical steppe

Ratio of below-ground biomass

to above-ground biomass, R 0.56 2006 IPCC GLs

Average annual biomass

growth above- and below-

ground, Gtotal

9.36 t dm/(ha yr)

Carbon fraction of dry matter,

CF 0.49 tC / t dm 2006 IPCC GLs

Annual increase in biomass

carbon stocks due to biomass

growth ΔCG

27261.56 tC/yr

Annual loss of carbon ΔCL 10%


Results:



action

2019 89.96

2020 89.96

2025 89.96

2030 89.96




Hectares of afforested and rehabilitated forest area.

Hectares of forest and plantations protected under the project.

Number of newly developed and implemented forest and pasture management

plans.


the sustainable forest management project will be the Forestry Agency under the

Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.11. Improvement of Water Resources

Management in Khatlon Region Project



Description of the action: The Project development objective is to improve the

livelihood of the rural population, through improvement of water resources management

with resilience to climate change impacts. The project will result in increase of agriculture

production by 110,000 tons per year; 2,000 new permanent, and 15,000 seasonal job

opportunity will be created. 60,000 rural people will be provided with access to improved

water supply

The Project is supported by the Islamic Development Bank.



irrigation.





0.10 t C ha-1 yr-1.

The agricultural land covered by the project is not provided in the project's reports and

website. For that reason, it is estimated by using as driver the project cost.


improved irrigation


Khatlon Region Project cost 15,000,000 USD

Dangara Valley Irrigation Project cost 7,856,777 USD

Area covered by the Dangara project 1,750 ha

Estimated area covered by the Khatlon project 3,341 ha



Results:





action

2020 1.23

2025 1.23

2030 1.23




Agricultural production in the Khatlon region after the implementation of the

project.

Number of newly created job opportunities due to the implementation of the

project.

Number of rural people with access to improved water supply.


the improvement of water resources management will be the Ministry of Agriculture and

the Agency for Reclamation and Irrigation under the Government of the Republic of

Tajikistan.



3.12. The Agriculture Reform Programme of

the Republic of Tajikistan for 2012-2020

Background documents: The description of the Programme is available at

https://moa.tj/ru/agrarian%20reform.

Description of the action: The overall goal of the Programme intends to achieve two

major national aims:

Develop productive and profitable agriculture on the basis of sustainable

utilization and management of natural resources.

Conduct overall agricultural reform, including structural and institutional reforms

at national and sub-national levels.

Specific tasks (objectives) in achieving these aims include:

Raise profitability of farms through free selection of crops to cultivate, based on

the principles of Resolution #111 of the Republic of Tajikistan that provides for

farmers to choose what they want to grow and where they wish to market their

products along the market principles of demand and supply and without any

interference; and equitable access to land and water;

Create environment in which farmers will become free producers;

Continue developing, high value, high income crops;

Ensure rights for long-term land tenure, based on principles of equity, without any

discrimination of gender, ethnicity and others, thus amending the Land Code of

the Republic of Tajikistan that allows for long-term Land Use Rights that is

inheritable, exchangeable and transferable;

Develop land valuation and land market mechanisms providing for land to be

traded, but also Land Use Rights can be used as collateral for obtaining credit

from the banks;

Amend the Law on Mortgage to provide customary and normal protection for

debtors in cases of default;

Amend the Law on Dehkan Farm to improve the status of Dehkan farms in line

with the Resolution of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan #111, of 5

March 2007 on freedom to farm “On endorsing the Action Plan for resolving the

debts of cotton farms for 2007-2009”, whereby shareholders freely elect their

managers without any interference by national or local government authorities,

thus attracting shareholders to invest in the sector.

The Agriculture Reform Programme of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2012-2020 contains

the following tasks and actions that are related to a potential mitigation GHG effect:

Improvement of land condition: irrigation projects to irrigate abandoned arable

land, sustainable use of land (rotation, crop diversification etc.);

Reduced use of fertilizers;

https://moa.tj/ru/agrarian%20reform


Increase fruit trees croplands;

Pasture management to avoid deterioration and overgrazing – rotation of

pastures – scale up cultivation of fodder crops;

Strengthen seed-growing and access to high quality seed;

Livestock development through improved access to fodder, enhanced animal

health services and livestock breeding development.

The Agriculture Reform Programme of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2012-2020 was

approved by Government Decree dated August 1, 2012 No. 383.

Programme duration: 2012-2020

Assumptions: We consider that the potential GHG mitigation impact of the Agriculture

Reform Programme has been already included in the estimated effect of the other

Programmes and Projects that have been analyzed (e.g. Pasture Development Program

of the Republic of Tajikistan, Horticulture and Grapevine Development Program,

Development Program for Seed Production of the Republic of Tajikistan, etc.). Please

refer to the following Programmes.

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 IE IE IE

2020 IE IE IE

2025 IE IE IE

2030 IE IE IE

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the programme has been

finalized, however, the operational aspect of the programme will be monitored through


Number of irrigation projects created under the programme.

Amount of used fertilizers on crop lands after the implementation of the

programme.

Number of households with access to high quality seed.

Number of households with access to fodder, animal health services and

livestock breeding development.


the agriculture reform programme will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of

Tajikistan and the Agency for Reclamation and Irrigation under the Government of the




3.13. Programme of development of

biotechnology of cattle in the Republic of

Tajikistan


http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/taj170824.pdf.

Description of the action: The scope of this Program shall be the development of

biotechnology of stockbreeding, research in this sphere with a view of conservation of

animal genetic resources (semen, embryos) of nationally bred pedigree stock and rare

animal species. The objective shall be improvement of animal reproduction methods. The

following arrangements shall be performed for implementation of the Program: (a)

purchase of highly productive pedigree stock from abroad and import thereof; (b) growing

of young stock with high reproduction rate; (c) purchase of laboratory equipment; (d)

creation of sperm bank; and (e) training of staff.

The Programme of development of biotechnology of cattle in the Republic of Tajikistan

for 2013 - 2017 was approved by Government Decree August 1, 2012, No. 384.


Assumptions: This Programme is related to the development and improvement of

livestock biotechnology scientific, research and technical knowledge and capacity of

Tajikistan. The effect of the application of the outcomes of the research activities of this

Programme are included under the estimated potential GHG mitigation effect of

"Comprehensive livestock development program".

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 IE IE IE

2020 IE IE IE

2025 IE IE IE

2030 IE IE IE




Number of improved animal reproduction methods.

http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/taj170824.pdf



the development of biotechnology of cattle will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the




3.14. Pasture Development Program of the




Description of the action: Improving the condition of pastures has a special place in

ensuring the food security of the country and reducing poverty. At the same time, it

should be noted that in recent years, most of the pastures have been degraded,

especially pastures located near settlements and some of them are turning into a desert

zone. In many pastures, water supply facilities are unsuitable for exploitation. Due to the

lack of cattle drive roads and bridges, watering and feeding areas, about 1 million

hectares of pastures are partially used, and some areas are not used at all. As a result

of mudflow rains, hail, fires and other natural and anthropogenic factors, more than a

thousand hectares of pastures annually undergo degradation and erosion. At the same

time, according to statistics, in comparison with 1991, the livestock population increased.

Due to the lack of grazing feed in the winter, livestock loss of small livestock from 10 to

25 percent occurs.

Failure to prevent this unfavorable situation can lead to dangerous irretrievable

consequences. For the development of animal husbandry, it is necessary to create a

solid fodder base. Based on this, improvement of quality, productivity, appropriate and

rational regulation and use of pastures are the main factors in the development of

agriculture production.

The Program is aimed at increasing the stocks of pasture vegetation using modern

technology by sowing seeds of natural vegetation of pastures and increasing their

productivity. This Program is designed to increase livestock, meat, milk, leather and wool

production in all types of households, to meet the needs of the population with

environmentally friendly food, industry - raw materials, organize new jobs and improve

the living standards of rural residents. As a result, it brings high profits to all types of

management and on the whole will create the basis for strengthening the country's

economic growth.

To ensure the implementation of the Program, the following tasks must be solved:

selection and preparation of land for sowing seeds of natural herbs;

improvement of pasture conditions by methods of root and surface treatment, as

well as their protection against erosion;

repair of cattle drive tracks and construction of cattle drive bridges;

revision of the distribution of seasonal pastures;

determination of the directions of cattle-driving routes and sites for cattle herding;

protection of sowing pasture plots;

import and production of seeds of natural pasture grasses;

acquisition and delivery of mineral fertilizers;



acquisition of fuel and lubricants and other services.

The Pasture Development Program of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016 - 2020 was

developed on the basis of the Law of the Republic of Tajikistan "On Pastures". It was

approved by Government Decree November 28, 2015, No. 724.


Assumptions: At the expense of the Program’s funds, the pasture productivity of the

Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region is being improved - 250 hectares by surface

treatment, Sogd region by root treatment - 70 hectares, surface treatment - 250 hectares,

Khatlon region pasture by root processing - 65 hectares, by surface cultivation of 540

hectares, Dekhkan farms of regions of republican subordination by the method of root

processing - 45 hectares and by surface treatment - 200 hectares. Total 1420 ha of

pastures will be improved.

The estimation of the mitigation impacts is consistent with the data and methods applied

in the National Inventory of Tajikistan. The mitigation impact was calculated by

considering that the baseline emissions are those as included in the inventory. Since the

IPCC Tier 1 method was applied for the inventory, the same method was applied to

estimate the mitigation impact.

The mitigation effect does not reflect any potential positive impact to livestock productivity

associated to increased availability of fodder and grass from pastures.



Land-use

category

Reference

soil

carbon

stock


Representative

soil carbon

stock Parameter

s source

SOCref


Grassland

(pasture)

before

LPDP

4 1 0.9 1 3.6 National

inventory

Grassland-

improved

pasture

after LPDP

4 1 1.14 1 4.56

National

inventory

& 2006

IPCC GLs

Pasture land improved 1420 Ha



Results:




action

2020 0.25

2025 0.25

2030 0.25




Stocks of pasture vegetation after the implementation of the Pasture

Development Programme.

Household production of livestock, meat, milk, leather and wool after the

implementation of the Pasture Development Programme.

Number of newly created jobs due to the increased livestock, meat, milk, leather

and wool production.


the Pasture Development Programme will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic

of Tajikistan.



3.15. Horticulture and Grapevine Development

Program



Description of the action: Horticulture and viticulture is one of the key agricultural

sectors of the Republic of Tajikistan, able to provide the country's domestic market with

food, increase the export potential of the republic and provide the population with

permanent work.

The main objective of the Program is the erection of new orchards and vineyards, the

reconstruction of old orchards and vineyards, the replacement of old low-yielding with

high-yielding varieties for export, based on the construction of intensive orchards,

increasing productivity by creating nurseries using new seeds and cuttings as a whole

increase in fruit and grape production.

To achieve this goal, it is required from the executive bodies of state power of regions,

cities and districts, organizations and institutions, regardless of the form of ownership, to

build nursery plants on the basis of the indicators of this Program, to organize the

cultivation of seedlings of 11.7 million units with the use of new seeds for 5 years, invest

in the construction of orchards and vineyards on an area of 20.1 thousand hectares and

reconstruct old gardens and vineyards on an area of 6.9 thousand Hectares on rain fed

land, replace the old orchards and vineyards to new to 6.1 thousand Hectares, the

erection of 502 hectares intensive orchards.

The Horticulture and Viticulture Development Program in the Republic of Tajikistan for

2016 – 2020 was approved by Government Decree December 30, 2015, No. 793.


Assumptions: The mitigation impact was calculated by considering that the baseline

emissions are those as included in the inventory. Since the IPCC Tier 1 method was

applied for the inventory, the same method was applied to estimate the mitigation impact.

Perennial woody vegetation in orchards and vineyards can store significant carbon in

long-lived biomass, the amount depending on species type and cultivar, density, growth

rates, and harvesting and pruning practices.

The mitigation potential that is associated to the plantation of new orchards and vineyards

on an area of 20.1 thousand hectares for the 5 years period will be estimated. According

to Appendix 2 of the Programme, the plantation of new orchards on an area of 17382 ha

and vineyards on an area of 2771 ha is foreseen.

We select apricot as a representative plantation to base our estimations of the potential

mitigation impact of new orchards. This assumption is based on the results of the



Programme for the period 2010-2014 (10% were vineyards and more than 40% of fruit

orchards were apricot plantations).

It was assumed that these plantations accumulate biomass linearly until they reach

maturity, assumed to be at half the replacement cycle. During maturity biomass increases

are offset by losses from pruning - in order the tree to be retained to the desired form -

and natural mortality, and hence changes in living biomass are assumed to be zero. The

annual growth rate (GW), during the growth period, is derived thus by dividing biomass

stock at maturity by the time from crop establishment to maturity reach.

Table 75. General assumptions for the estimation of the Increase of above

ground biomass C stock due to new woody plantations (orchards and vineyards)

Tree crops

Average

Aboveground

fresh biomass

stock

Biomass

moisture

Average

Aboveground

biomass stock

Carbon

fraction of

dry matter

Average

aboveground

biomass C

stock

Harvest

cycle

Annual C

uptake from

crop growth

t fresh b/ha % t dm/ha t C/t dm t C/ha yr t C/ha yr

Vineyards 20 40 12 0.5 6 26 0.46153846

Fruit trees 80 40 48 0.5 24 26 1.84615385

Land of new woody plantations 20,153 Ha

Land of vineyards 2,771 Ha

Land of fruit plantations 17,382 Ha


Results:



action

2020 122.35

2025 122.35

2030 122.35




Number of newly erected orchards and vineyards.

Number of reconstructed old orchards and vineyards.

Number of orchards and vineyards switched from low-yielding to high-yielding

varieties.

Number of created nurseries to increase fruit and grape production.



the horticulture and grapevine development will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the




3.16. State Target Program for the

Development of the Transport Complex of

the Republic of Tajikistan


https://www.mintrans.tj/sites/default/files/2017/gosudarstvennaya_celevaya_programm

a_razvitiya.pdf.

Description of the action: The Programme includes actions for the creation of protective

forest belts (roadsides) along the roads, which can be linked to a GHG mitigation

potential. The area of protective forest strip is planned to be 150 hectares.

The State Target Program for the Development of the Transport Complex of the Republic

of Tajikistan until 2025 was approved by Government Decree dated April 1, 2011 No.

165.


Assumptions: The Programme includes the establishment of 150 ha of protective forest

belts (roadsides) along the roads.

The potential GHG mitigation impact will be estimated by calculating the annual increase

of biomass carbon stocks of afforested lands. The same method and parameters will be

used as in the national inventory.


impact





2006 IPCC GLs,

subtropical steppe



Average annual biomass

growth above- and below-

ground, Gtotal

9.36 t dm/(ha yr)





growth ΔCG

687.96 tC/yr



Results:






action

2025 2.27

2030 2.27



Hectares of created protective forest belts along roads.


the establishment of the forest belts will be the Forestry Agency under the Government

of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.17. Development Program for Seed

Production of the Republic of Tajikistan



Description of the action: The main objective of the Program shall be promotion of

selection and seed-growing with a view of formation of this sector of the national economy

capable of the functioning in compliance with international norms and standards.

Selection and seed-growing must be aimed at the promotion of plant varieties,

introduction, testing and registration of plant varieties, use of different seed-growing

methods for the extension of crop cultivation through application of new technologies,

and also commercial production, reproduction, processing, certification and marketing of

high quality seeds for internal market and export. In particular, this Program is oriented

towards introduction of new high-yielding cotton varieties and production of high-quality

cotton seeds.

The Development Program for Seed Production of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016 -

2020 was approved by Government Decree October 28, 2016, No. 438.


Assumptions: According to the programme, a gradual increase in the area under elite

seeds is targeted. We assume that elite seeds will be used for 10-15% of agricultural

land used for the following agricultural crops: cotton, cereals, legumes, potatoes and

fodder crops. The mitigation potential will be correlated to the improved agronomic

practices that increase yields and generate higher inputs of carbon residue and by this

way can lead to increased soil carbon storage. The type of improved agronomic practice

is the use of improved crop varieties.

The mitigation impact will be calculated by using the guidance from the WGII of the 4th

AR of IPCC related to Agriculture (Smith et al 2007).

Smith, P., D. Martino, Z. Cai, D. Gwary, H. Janzen, P. Kumar, B. McCarl, S. Ogle, F.

O’Mara, C. Rice, B. Scholes, O. Sirotenko, 2007: Agriculture. In Climate Change 2007:

Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R.

Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and

New York, NY, USA.



Table 79. Arable area per crop19

Crop Area Units

cotton 254830 ha

cereals 384940 ha

legumes 11790 ha

potatoes 29750 ha

fodder crops 166490 ha


impact


Total area of cotton, cereals,

legumes, potatoes and fodder

crops

847800 ha

Percentage of land under

improved agronomy practices 10%

Annual mitigation potentials 0.39 tCO2eq/ha/yr

Mitigation impact 33.0642 ktCO2/yr

Results:



action

2021 33.06

2025 33.06

2030 33.06




Number of newly used seed-growing methods

Number of newly introduced high-yielding cotton varieties.

Number of high-quality cotton seeds produced with the new methods.


the seed production will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.

19 Source: STATE OF PLANT GENETIC RESOURCES FOR FOOD AND AGRICULTURE (PGRFA) IN THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN, COUNTRY REPORT BY PROF. DR. HAFIZ MUMINJANOV, DUSHANBE 2008


3.18. Comprehensive livestock development

program


http://www.fao.org/faolex/results/details/ru/c/LEX-FAOC189453/.

Description of the action: Integrated Program of Livestock Sector Development in the

Republic of Tajikistan for the period of 2018-2022 is a cross-sectoral policy document

envisaging the development of the livestock sector, which covers a range of zootechnical,

biotechnological and economic measures aimed at growing, preserving and increasing

the number of cattle, poultry, bees, fish, and their breeds in the country, as well as the

breeding of new high-yielding breeds. At the same time, ensuring the development of

livestock breeding industries within the framework of measures aimed at organizing and

conducting selection and breeding works, improving growing technology and feeding

standards for livestock, poultry, fish and bees, and increasing productivity of pastures by

indigenous and surface methods with the use of modern achievements. For further

development of the livestock sector, it is very important to provide a stable fodder supply

and it is expedient to create enterprises for the production of mixed fodder. To implement

this Program, the implementation of breeding stock and technological measures have

the importance of protecting, preserving and improving genetic resources of type and

breed of animals raised in the country, as well as to increase their numbers: local Tajik

Schwyz humped cattle are resistant to very hot and dry climates and to infectious blood

diseases. In order to improve the quality of breeds and productivity of livestock, the

following seeds were used: (a) sperm of black-and-white bulls of Holstein, Schwyz,

Schwyz and Schwyz humped cattle; and (b) in sheep breeding and goat-breeding sperm

of stud rams of the Guissar, Tajik, Darvoz thin wool and Tajik woolen goats. It should be

noted that the number of livestock in the private sector is increasing, but that there is also

a risk of the disappearance of some breeds: Kazakh white-headed, Aberdeen Angus,

Kalmyk, Tajik sheep breed and of the Darvoz thin wool breeds. The Program provides

for the preservation and protection of the genetic fund livestock breeds subject to animal

husbandry on the national territory. To improve the quality of breeding stock and increase

productivity of cattle, sheep, and goats it is necessary to set up breeding and selection

work at the appropriate level. There are a number of reasons in cattle breeding that have

a negative impact on further development of this sector: (a) of diminution pure bred cattle

and failure of breeding practices at the appropriate level; (b) insufficient number of bull

breeders, bred heifers of black-and-white, Schwyz, Kazakh, white-headed, Aberdeen

Angus and Kalmyk, as well as stud rams of thin wool and Karakul breeds; (c) insufficient

provision with mixed fodder; (d) import of pure bred animals and breeding material from

abroad in small quantities; and (e) poor functioning of artificial insemination points. The

main objective of the Program is to increase the production of meat, milk, eggs, honey,

fish with the use of modern technologies, creation of new livestock farms to increase

efficiency and productivity of animals, birds, fish, bees in all forms of ownership, thus

ensuring provision of the population with ecologically clean foodstuffs, increase of

pasture yield by 1520 of hundredweight, the creation the stock of genetic species and

semen of livestock, the creation of new jobs and, in general, the production of import-

http://www.fao.org/faolex/results/details/ru/c/LEX-FAOC189453/


substituting commodities and ensuring food security. In the field of providing sources of

animal and poultry production the following issues are to be addressed for the

implementation of the Program: (a) use of selection and breeding achievements and

biotechnological methods to preserve and strengthen national genetic species of herds

and national animal breeds, species of fish, crosses of birds and breeds of bees; (b) due

to the importance of the objectives regarding the improvement of breeds and productivity

of livestock, birds, bees, must be provides support for pedigree breeding and funds for

training of specialists; (c) promotion of growing turkeys, ducks, partridges and quails; (d)

ensuring protection of genetic resources of fish species; and (e) organization of the

processing of manufactured products and ensuring the development of market relations.

The Comprehensive livestock development program for 2018 - 2022 was approved by

Government Decree March 27, 2018, No. 160.


Assumptions: the following quantitative indicators of the Programme for year 2022 will

be correlated to potential GHG mitigation impact associated to livestock:

Purchase of 2450 thoroughbred cows from abroad;

Purchase of 5850 sheep;

Artificial insemination 45 000 heads of which 40000 thoroughbred calves;

Production of 80000 bulls.

In addition, 320 ha of pastures will be improved.


AR of IPCC related to Agriculture (Smith et al 2007).

Smith, P., D. Martino, Z. Cai, D. Gwary, H. Janzen, P. Kumar, B. McCarl, S. Ogle, F.

O’Mara, C. Rice, B. Scholes, O. Sirotenko, 2007: Agriculture. In Climate Change 2007:

Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R.

Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and

New York, NY, USA.

The affected livestock population from the Programme will be estimated based on the

quantitative indicators of the Programme and total livestock population in 2016 (national

inventory).







Land-use

category

Reference

soil

carbon

stock


Representative

soil carbon

stock Parameter

s source

SOCref


Grassland

(pasture)

before

LPDP

4 1 0.9 1 3.6 National

inventory

Grassland-

improved

pasture

after LPDP

4 1 1.14 1 4.56

National

inventory

& 2006

IPCC GLs




Improvement of livestock productivity




Purchase of sheep from abroad 5,850 heads Programme

Artificial insemination 5,000 heads Programme

Total sheep in 2016 3,489,997 heads National

inventory

Percentage of sheep affected by the programme 0.31%

Enteric methane production in 2016 17 kt CH4 National

inventory


Enteric methane production in 2016 366.45 kt CO2 eq National

inventory

Technical reduction potential (proportion of an

animal’s enteric methane production) for enteric

methane emissions due to (i) improved feeding

practices, (ii) specific

agents and dietary additives and (iii) longer term

structural/management change and animal

breeding

0.1% IPCC 2007

Efficiency of the programme 70%

Mitigation effect 0.0008 kt CO2

eq/year





Purchase of

thoroughbred cows

from abroad during the

5 years of the

Programme

2,450 heads Programme

Annual equivalent of

young cattle from

thoroughbred cows

564 heads

281-day gestation period

averaged over an entire

year

Artificial insemination

of cattle (thoroughbred

calves) during the 5

years

40,000 heads Programme

Annual equivalent of

artificial inseminated

calves during the 5-

years

11,836

Cattle raised for beef have a

lifespan between 12 to 24

months (average 18

months)

Production of bulls for

the 5-year period 80,000 heads Programme

Equivalent annual

number of young cattle

produced from bulls

920,548 heads Bull per cattle 1/50 (281-day

gestation period)

Total Cattle in 2016 2,278,072 heads National

inventory

Percentage of cattle

affected by the

programme

40%

Enteric methane

production in 2016 132 kt CH4

National

inventory


Enteric methane

production in 2016 2763.747 kt CO2 eq

National

inventory

Technical reduction

potential (proportion of

an animal’s enteric

methane production)

for enteric methane

emissions due to

longer term

structural/management

change and animal

breeding

2% IPCC 2007

Efficiency of the

programme 70%

Mitigation effect 11.73 kt CO2

eq/year

Results:




action

2018 7.01

2019 8.76

2020 10.51

2021 12.27

2022 14.02

2023 14.02

2024 14.02

2025 14.02

2030 14.02



Number of newly high-yielding breeds being bred.

Number of newly introduced modern technologies for the production of meat,

milk, eggs, honey and fish.

Number of specialists trained on breeding improvements.

Number of increased pasture yield in hundredweight.

Number of created genetic species and semen of livestock.

Number of newly created jobs in the livestock sector.

Number of turkeys, ducks, partridges and quails being bred.


the development of the livestock sector will be the Forestry Agency under the




3.19. National Climate Change Adaptation

Strategy for the period up to 2030

Background documents: The Strategy is available at

http://repo.mel.cgiar.org:8080/handle/20.500.11766/10876.

Description of the action: The Strategy deals with the ranking of risks and their impact

on key sectors of the economy (agriculture, transport, water and energy resources, the

environment and natural disasters), the identification of needs and options for adapting

to climate change, the development of priority projects for adapting to climate change in

key sectors of the economy. It contains the development of 33 project proposals for

various sectors of the economy.

The National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the period up to 2030 was

approved by Government Decree 02.10.2019, No.482.

Strategy duration: up to 2030

Assumptions: We consider that the potential mitigation GHG impact of the adaptation

projects of the Strategy, which are related to the AFOLU sector, has been already

included in the estimated effect of the Programmes and Projects that have been analyzed

(e.g. Pasture Development Program of the Republic of Tajikistan, Horticulture and

Grapevine Development Program, Development Program for Seed Production of the

Republic of Tajikistan, Forest Sector Development Strategy, etc.).

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 IE IE IE

2020 IE IE IE

2025 IE IE IE

2030 IE IE IE



Number of potential risks of on key sectors of the economy such as the

agricultural, transport, water and energy resources, the environment, and natural

disasters sectors.

Number of impacts of the potential risks of the identified key sectors.

Number of identified needs and options for adapting to climate change by the

identified sectors.

http://repo.mel.cgiar.org:8080/handle/20.500.11766/10876



the climate change adaptation strategy will be the Committee for Environmental

Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.20. The state program for the development

of new irrigated land and the restoration of

land that has been abandoned from

agricultural circulation in the Republic of

Tajikistan


https://www.alri.tj/ru/state-program-for-the-development-of-new-irrigated-land.

Description of the action: The state program for the development of new irrigated lands

and the restoration of lands that have been abandoned from agricultural circulation in the

Republic of Tajikistan for 2012-2020 (hereinafter referred to as the Program) has been

drawn up in order to increase the efficiency of the country's agricultural production,

provide rural people with jobs and, on this basis, improve the living standards of citizens

of the Republic Tajikistan.

The main objective of this Program is to restore the abandoned land in agricultural

circulation and expand the area of irrigated land in the country in 2012-2020. This

Program is consistent with the objectives of other programs of the Government of the

Republic of Tajikistan to improve the standard of living of people and is intended to

contribute to the socio-economic development of the country.

Expected Programme results: The implementation of this Program will allow the

development of 18,890 hectares of new irrigated land, including 3,890 hectares at the

expense of the state budget, 15,000 hectares at the expense of state investment projects

and the restoration of 7,800 hectares in agricultural circulation, in general, to attract

26,690 hectares of land into agricultural production. It should be noted that each hectare

of irrigated land, based on crops and areas of its location, will provide jobs for 4 to 8

people. On average, the implementation of the Program will create more than 160

thousand new jobs in rural areas of the country.

The state program for the development of new irrigated land and the restoration of land

that has been abandoned from agricultural circulation in the Republic of Tajikistan was

approved by Government Decree dated August 31, 2012 No. 450.


Assumptions: This programme aims at the restoration of abandoned land in agricultural

circulation and expansion of the area of irrigated land in the country in response to

improved irrigation.




https://www.alri.tj/ru/state-program-for-the-development-of-new-irrigated-land



0.10 t C ha-1 yr-1.


improved irrigation





Results:



action

2021 9.79

2025 9.79

2030 9.79




Hectares of restored abandoned land in agricultural circulation.

Hectares of expanded area of irrigated land.

Number of new jobs created by expanding the hectares of land into agricultural

production.


the increase of irrigated land will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of

Tajikistan.



4. Waste


waste sector in Tajikistan.

4.1. Second Dushanbe Water Supply Project


https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P154729?lang=en.

Description of the action: The objective of the project is to assist the improvement of

water utility performance and water supply services in selected areas of Dushanbe. It will

support the completion of the metering program in the southern part of the city and the

installation of network re-chlorination systems. Additionally, it will support an additional

tranche of filter reconstruction at the Samatechnaya Water Treatment Plant (SAM WTP),

the automation of the coagulation process at SAM WTP, the replacement and

sectorization of network sections, the development of a tariff and connection fee study

and technical assistance to improve utility management capacities and to develop a non-

revenue water (NRW) reduction strategy.


Assumptions: This project does not have direct impact on GHG emission reductions. It

affects the water supply, but not water discharges in a direct way. Therefore, no GHG

emission reductions have been estimated.

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA

Proposal of monitoring indicator: The implementation of the project has been

finalized, however, the operational aspect of the project will be monitored through the


Number of meters installed in the southern part of the city of Dushanbe.

Number of installed re-chlorination systems.

Number of replaced and sectorized network sections.

https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P154729?lang=en


Number of reconstructed filters at SAM WTP.

Number of interviewed people through the tariff and connection fee study.

Number of households provided with technical assistance to improve utility

management capacities.


the water supply project will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the




4.2. Dushanbe Water Supply and Sanitation

Project



Description of the action: The project will support Tajikistan in rehabilitating and

expanding climate-resilient water supply and sanitation (WSS) infrastructure, pilot testing

the establishment of district metering areas (DMAs) for nonrevenue water (NRW)

management in selected districts of Dushanbe city and rehabilitation of the south sewage

collector, benefitting 352,000 people. Additionally, it will assist developing a business

model for the State Unitary Enterprise Dushanbevodokanal (DVK) to improve the

sustainability of operations, including an accountability and incentive mechanism with a

performance benchmarking matrix and smart management system.

Furthermore, the project will pilot test a behavior change component for raising public

awareness on water usage and conservation and the benefits of smart meters. This is

the first urban sector project of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Tajikistan,

demonstrating efficient network management with potential for scaling up citywide. It is

listed in the ADB country operations business plan for Tajikistan, 2018-2020.


Assumptions: The component of the project leading to GHG emission reductions is the

rehabilitation of the south sewage collector, benefitting 352,000 people. The

implementation period of the project is 2018-2025, and it is assumed that the impact of

the action will start affecting GHG emissions in the year 2025. During these years, the

population growth is assumed to be at the same rate of national total population.

The improved sewerage will affect the emission factor for calculating the emissions of

category 4D1 Domestic wastewater in the WOM, which is calculated according to the tier

1 approach for category 4D1 and estimated consistently with the WoM.


impact


Type of population affected Urban -

Type of treatment or discharge pathway Septic tank -

Population affected 352,000 Population

Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) 14.6 kg BOD/capital/year

Emission factor sceptic tank 0.3 kg CH4/kg BOD

Degree of utilization sceptic tank 10 %

Emission factor sewer 0.15 kg CH4/kg BOD

Degree of utilization sewer 30 %




impact



Discharge pathway

Centralized, aerobic treatment

plant -

Population affected 352,000 Population

Biochemical Oxygen Demand

(BOD) 14.6

kg

BOD/capital/year

Emission factor 0 kg CH4/kg BOD

Degree of utilization 100 %

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 21.20 0.00 21.20

2030 23.57 0.00 23.57



Number of pilot district metering areas in place in Dushanbe city.

Kilometers of rehabilitated south sewage collector.

Number of people benefiting from the improved sewage system.

Number of people reached with the behavior change component on water usage

and conservation and the benefits of smart meters.


the water supply project will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the




4.3. Kjuhand Water Supply Improvement

Programme (Phase III)


http://planung.fela.ch/index.php/projects/waste-water/wwtp-khujand,-tajikistan.

Description of the action: The project phase I was completed in 2008 and yielded

promising results. Therefore, a second phase was approved in 2009, which together with

phase 1 have improved the conditions of the water supply systems substantially.

However, the wastewater sectors still proved to be in a bad state. Thus, the Kjuhand

Water Supply Improvement Programme Phase III was approved.

The project consists in the rehabilitation of Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) of

Khujand. The previous WWTP was built in the 1970’s. The mechanical and biological

units were out of operation for more than 10 years. As a result of this project, all electro-

mechanical equipment has either been removed or is completely dilapidated and non-

functional. Expected results after implementation of the project will be a fully functioning

Waste Water Treatment Plant.


Assumptions: The component of the project leading to GHG emission reductions is the

rehabilitation of the WWTP, which benefits the entire population of Khujand. The

implementation period for the project is 2016-2020, and it is assumed that the impact of

the action will start affecting GHG emissions in the year 2020. During these years, the

population growth is assumed to stay at the same rate of national total population.

The improved sewerage will affect the emission factor for calculating the emissions of

category 4D1 Domestic wastewater in the WOM, which is calculated according to the tier

1 approach for category 4D1 and estimated consistently with the WoM.


impact




Population affected Population of Khujand -






http://planung.fela.ch/index.php/projects/waste-water/wwtp-khujand,-tajikistan



impact



Type of treatment or discharge

pathway


plant -

Population affected Population of Khujand Population

Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) 14.6

kg

BOD/capital/year



Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 13.70 0.00 13.70

2030 15.23 0.00 15.23




Liters of wastewater treated by the WWTP of Khujand after the implementation

of the project.


the waste treatment will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic

of Tajikistan.



4.4. Nurek Water and Wastewater Project


https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/nurek-water-and-wastewater-

project.html.

Description of the action: Supporting the project to modernize and upgrade the water

and wastewater services in the city of Nurek in Tajikistan. The overall objectives of this

project are to rehabilitate the water supply and selected wastewater improvements and

to improve financial and operational management of the Nurek Water Company.


Assumptions: The intervention leading to GHG emission reduction is the increase in the

population benefitting from access to the wastewater collection system from 20,142 in

2016 to 24,573 by 2019, which means that the project will expand the wastewater

collection system to more than 4 thousand people that not had access previously.

The implementation period for the project is 2014-2017, and it is assumed that the impact

of the action will start affecting GHG emissions in the year 2020. The improved sewerage

will affect the emission factor for calculating the emissions of domestic wastewater for

these population, which will be calculated according to the tier 1 approach for category

4D1 domestic wastewater.


impact




pathway

Untreated: discharges to sea, river,

and lake -

Population affected Population of Nurek Population


kg

BOD/capital/ye

ar

Emission factor sea, river and lake

discharge 0.06 kg CH4/kg BOD



impact




pathway


plant -

https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/nurek-water-and-wastewater-project.html

https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/nurek-water-and-wastewater-project.html



Population affected Population of Nurek Population


kg

BOD/capital/year



Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 0.10 0.00 0.10

2030 0.10 0.00 0.10




Number of modernized and upgraded water and wastewater services.

Liters of water provided by the improved water services.

Liters of wastewater treated by the upgraded wastewater services.


the modernization of the water and wastewater services will be the Ministry of Energy

and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan.



4.5. Kulob Water and Wastewater Project



Description of the action: The project will improve water supply and wastewater

services in the city of Kulob through the rehabilitation of the water network and pump

stations and the rehabilitation and modernization of the wastewater treatment plant. This

will impact the GHG emissions from wastewater occurring in Kulob.


Assumptions: The implementation period for the project is 2020-2025 and it is assumed

that the impact of the action will star affecting GHG emissions in the year 2025. During

the project, the population growth is assumed to stay at the same rate of the national

total population.

The rehabilitation of the wastewater treatment in Kulob will affect the emission factor for

calculating the emissions of category 4D1 Domestic wastewater in the WoM, which is

calculated according to the tier 1 approach for category 4D1 and estimated consistently

with the WoM.


impact




Population affected Total population of Kulob Population







impact




pathway


plant -

Population affected Total population of Kulob Population


kg

BOD/capital/year






Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 7.22 0.00 7.22

2030 8.02 0.00 8.02



Number of rehabilitated pump stations.

Kilometers of rehabilitated water network.

Liters of wastewater treated by the modernized wastewater treatment plant.


the improved water supply and wastewater services will be the Ministry of Energy and




4.6. Vahdat Solid Waste Project


https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/vahdat-sw-project-subproject.html.

Description of the action: The objective of this project is to finance construction of a

new sanitary landfill, as well as to upgrade solid waste collection and transportation

systems. The project will result in improved solid waste services and environmental

standards in Vahdat, along other activities.


Assumptions: By 2023, the solid waste of the population of Vahdat will be treated in a

sanitary landfill. During the period, the population growth is assumed to stay at the same

rate of the national total population.

The reference scenario is the WoM, in which the waste is treated in three different type

of landfills. The impact is calculated in an IPCC 2006 IPCC model.


impact


Waste treatment

Un-managed shallow (13%); Un-managed deep

(15%);

Managed (72%) -

Methane correction

factor 0.89

wt.

Fraction

Waste per capita 275 kg/cap/yr

% to SWDS 74 %

Waste composition

Food (31%); Garden (13%); Paper (11%); Wood

(0%);

Textile (2%); Nappies (0%); Plastic and other inert

(43%) %


impact


Waste treatment Managed semi-anaerobic -

Methane correction

factor 0.5

wt.

Fraction


% to SWDS 74 %

Waste composition


(0%); %

https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/vahdat-sw-project-subproject.html




(43%)

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 7.45 7.00 0.46

2030 8.41 6.92 1.49



Number of upgraded solid waste collection and transportation systems.

Kilograms of waste treated by the newly constructed sanitary landfill.

Number of people taking part in the community-based stakeholder participation

programme.


the new sanitary landfill will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the




4.7. Yavan Solid Waste Sub-Project


https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/yavan-solid-waste-subproject.html.

Description of the action: The project seeks to facilitate critical solid waste investments

for the city of Yavan and their neighboring municipalities. The overall objectives of this

sub-project are to rehabilitate the solid waste infrastructure and to improve financial and

operational management. This will result in a newly constructed sanitary landfill, the

upgrade of collection and transportation services and an improved level of solid waste

services and environmental improvements in the city and the municipalities.


Assumptions: By 2021, the solid waste of the population of Yavan will be treated in a


rate of the national total population.


of landfills. The impact is calculated in an IPCC 2006 IPCC model.


impact


Waste treatment


(15%);

Managed (72%) -

Methane correction

factor 0.89

wt.

Fraction


% to SWDS 74 %

Waste composition


(0%);


(43%) %


impact



Methane correction

factor 0.5

wt.

Fraction


% to SWDS 74 %

https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/yavan-solid-waste-subproject.html



Waste composition


(0%);


(43%) %

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 3.75 3.32 0.43

2030 4.23 3.33 0.90





Number of people taking part in the consultation process in form of a community-

based stakeholder participation programme.


the new sanitary landfill will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the




4.8. Kulob Solid Waste Sub-Project


https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/kulob-solid-waste-subproject.html.

Description of the action: Current waste practices are such that only 40% of waste is

collected in Kulob using aging equipment and methods. This waste is disposed of to an

old landfill site. The sub-project includes the development of a new sanitary landfill

adjacent to the existing landfill, which will be closed. This would be supported additional

collection points, waste containers, rehabilitation of existing collection points and

equipment as well as improvements to company facilities.

The overall objectives of this sub-project are to rehabilitate the solid waste infrastructure,

which is outdated, and purchase necessary equipment, and to improve financial and

operational management of the municipal solid waste company.


Assumptions: By 2020, all solid waste of the population of Yavan will be treated in a

sanitary landfill. During the period 2020-2030, the population is assumed to grow at the

same rate of the national total population.

The reference scenario is the WoM, in which the waste is treated in three different types

of landfills. The impact is calculated in the IPCC 2006 FOD waste model.


impact


Waste treatment


(15%);

Managed (72%) -

Methane correction

factor 0.89

wt.

Fraction


% to SWDS 74 %

Waste composition


(0%);


(43%) %


impact



https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/kulob-solid-waste-subproject.html



Methane correction

factor 0.5

wt.

Fraction


% to SWDS 74 %

Waste composition


(0%);


(43%) %

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 14.30 12.33 1.97

2030 16.14 12.43 3.71






Percentage of waste collected in Kulob.

Number of added collection points and waste containers.

Number of rehabilitated existing collection points.


the rehabilitation of the solid waste infrastructure will be the Ministry of Industry and New

Technologies of the Republic of Tajikistan.



4.9. Khujand Solid Waste Sub-Project


https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/khujand-solid-waste-subproject.html.

Description of the action: The project will construct a modern integrated solid waste

treatment facility, implement further improvements at the city landfill, rehabilitate the

remaining waste collection points in Khujand and procure waste collection containers and

machinery equipment.

By doing so, better service and environmental standards will be reached due to the timely

and reliable waste collection and transportation operations, the reduced landfilling, lower

CO2 and methane emissions and the introduction of appropriate standards for re-use

and recovery of resources.


Assumptions: By 2020, the solid waste of the population of Khujand will be treated in a


rate of the national total population. The reduced landfilling will lead to further GHG

emission reductions. However, with the information available, it is not possible to foresee

the reduction in landfilling.


of landfills and the impact is calculated in an IPCC 2006 IPCC model.


impact


Waste treatment


(15%);

Managed (72%) -

Methane correction

factor 0.89

wt.

Fraction


% to SWDS 74 %

Waste composition


(0%);


(43%) %


impact



https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/khujand-solid-waste-subproject.html



Methane correction

factor 0.5

wt.

Fraction


% to SWDS 74 %

Waste composition


(0%);


(43%) %

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 27.14 23.41 3.73

2030 30.64 23.60 7.04




Kilograms of waste treated by the newly constructed modern integrated solid

waste treatment facility.

Number of rehabilitated existing collection points.

Number of procured waste collection containers and machinery equipment.

Number of introduced standards for re-use and recovery of resources.


the solid waste project will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the




4.10. Rural Water Supply and Sanitation

Project



Description of the action: The development objectives of the Rural Water Supply and

Sanitation Project for Tajikistan are to improve access to basic water supply and

sanitation services in selected districts and to strengthen the capacity of institutions in

the water supply and sanitation sector.


Assumptions: This project does not have direct impact on GHG emission reductions. It

affects the water supply, but not water discharges in a direct way. Therefore, no GHG

emission reductions have been estimated.

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA



Number of people with access to basic water supply and sanitation services.

Number of institutions with strengthened capacity in the water supply and

sanitation sector.

Number of people participating in the training and capacity-building activities for

institutional strengthening.


the project will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of

Tajikistan.




4.11. Khorog Solid Waste Sub-Project


https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/khorog-solid-waste-sub-project.html

and at https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/procurement/p-pn-180530a.html.

Description of the action: The project will address urgently needed solid waste

infrastructure rehabilitation needs. The overall objectives of the project are to rehabilitate

the solid waste improvements and to improve financial and operational management.

Furthermore, to further improve solid waste management in Khorog city, the project will

require the procurement of the following goods, works and services:

Construction works for landfill remediation and extension;

Specialized machinery and vehicles for landfill operations; and

Accounting and billing systems.

The project is expected to bring substantial environmental, health and safety benefits to

the City of Khorog and the surrounding communities through the rehabilitation of waste

collection, transportation, and disposal services.


Assumptions: By 2019, the solid waste of the population of Khorog will be treated in a

sanitary landfill. However, information about the full scope of the project is not available.

During the period, the population growth is assumed to stay at the same rate of the

national total population.




impact


Waste treatment


(15%);

Managed (72%) -

Methane correction

factor 0.89

wt.

Fraction


% to SWDS 74 %

Waste composition


(0%);


(43%) %

https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/khorog-solid-waste-sub-project.html

https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/procurement/p-pn-180530a.html



impact



Methane correction

factor 0.5

wt.

Fraction


% to SWDS 74 %

Waste composition


(0%);


(43%) %

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 4.94 4.78 0.16

2025 5.62 4.72 0.90

2030 6.35 4.79 1.55




Number of procured constructions works for landfill remediation and extension.

Number of procured specialized machinery and vehicles for landfill operations.

Number of procured accounting and billing systems.

Kilograms of waste treated after the rehabilitation of solid waste activities.

Number of people taking part in the consultation process in form of a community-

based stakeholder participation programme.






4.12. Tursun-Zade Solid Waste


https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/tursun-zade-solid-waste.html.

Description of the action: The Project involves the rehabilitation and upgrade of the

existing dumpsite of the City of Tursun-Zade into a controlled landfill as well as the

improvement in waste collection services and transport to the landfill. Municipal waste is

currently disposed of at an existing dumpsite located 7.6 km from the City. The dumpsite

has been in operation since 1968.

A feasibility study conducted for the project considered the option of developing a new

landfill on a new site or upgrading the existing dumpsite. The study determined that the

existing site was suitable for upgrade to an engineered landfill and this is regarded as the

preferred option. The engineered landfill will be constructed in an unused area of the

dumpsite but on land approved by the Land Commission within the existing dumpsite

boundaries. The existing dumping areas will be re-cultivated and closed.

Ultimately, the project will improve landfill sanitary and operating standards and increase

efficiency and coverage of solid waste collection and transportation in Tursun-Zade.


Assumptions: By 2019, the solid waste of the population of Tursun-Zade will be treated

in a sanitary landfill. During the period, the population growth is assumed to stay at the





impact


Waste treatment


(15%);

Managed (72%) -

Methane correction

factor 0.89

wt.

Fraction


% to SWDS 74 %

Waste composition


(0%);


(43%) %

https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/tursun-zade-solid-waste.html



impact



Methane correction

factor 0.5

wt.

Fraction


% to SWDS 74 %

Waste composition


(0%);


(43%) %

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 6.40 6.19 0.21

2025 7.28 6.12 1.16

2030 8.22 6.20 2.01




Kilograms of waste treated at the rehabilitated and upgraded dumpsite of the City

of Tursun-Zade into a controlled landfill.

Number of households with improved waste collection services

Number of improved transport methods of waste to the landfill.






4.13. Kurgan-Tyube Solid Waste


https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/kurgan-tyube-solid-waste.html.

Description of the action: The project will bring substantial environmental, health and

safety benefits to the city of Kurgan-Tyube and the surrounding communities through the

rehabilitation of the solid waste management services in the city. It aimed at improving

landfill sanitary and operating standards and at increasing efficiency and coverage of

solid waste operations in the city. However, it is not clear if this project has been

implemented.


Assumptions: By 2019, the solid waste of the population of Kurgan-Tyube will be treated

in a sanitary landfill. During the period, the population growth is assumed to stay at the





impact


Waste treatment


(15%);

Managed (72%) -

Methane correction

factor 0.89

wt.

Fraction


% to SWDS 74 %

Waste composition


(0%);


(43%) %


impact



Methane correction

factor 0.5

wt.

Fraction


% to SWDS 74 %

https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/kurgan-tyube-solid-waste.html



Waste composition


(0%);


(43%) %

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 13.21 12.78 0.43

2025 15.01 12.62 2.40

2030 16.95 12.80 4.15




Kilograms of waste treated at the landfill with improved sanitary and operating

standards.

Percentage of collected waste in the city.

Number of households participating in the stakeholder participation programme.






Section 6 - Planned mitigation actions

This section reflects those actions with significant mitigation impact which are planned

to be implemented in the coming future.

1. Energy



1.1. Rogun Hydropower Plant


https://www.power-technology.com/projects/rogun-hydropower-plant/

Description of the action: The Rogun Hydropower Plant is being constructed on the

upper reaches of the Vakhsh River in the Pamir mountain ranges, Republic of Tajikistan.

The project is being developed by OJSC Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) on behalf of

the Government of Tajikistan. The 3,600MW power plant will have an output capacity of

13.1bn kWh, accounting for half of the country’s electrical installed capacity. Part of the

electrical output from the project will be sold to its neighboring countries, especially

Pakistan, conveyed using the Central Asia-South Asia power project (CASA-1000)

transmission line.

The techno-economic assessment study (TEAS) and environmental and social impact

assessment (ESIA) phase for the project was completed in July 2014 with funds provided

by the World Bank.

The above phase was necessitated due to the objections from the Republic of

Uzbekistan, primarily on the initial design of the dam.

The Rogun Hydropower Plant is currently under development. However, this project has

suffered different delays for different reasons20. Given the magnitude of the project and

its uncertainty, the mitigation action was included under the WaM scenario.

Implementation period: The project will be finalized by 202621.

20 https://cabar.asia/en/tajikistan-why-is-rogun-hpp-construction-delayed/

21 https://www.eu4energy.iea.org/countries/tajikistan

https://www.power-technology.com/projects/rogun-hydropower-plant/

https://cabar.asia/en/tajikistan-why-is-rogun-hpp-construction-delayed/

https://www.eu4energy.iea.org/countries/tajikistan




of the new hydro plant assumed to be zero. The capacity factor (hours of operation of

the installed capacity) are calculated using current data of electricity produced and

capacity installed.

It is also assumed that in the absence of this action, the energy demand would have

been met using the same energy mix of year 2016 (the last inventory year).

Some of the electricity produced by this plant will be exported to neighboring countries.

However, the estimation made assumes all electricity generated is consumed at national

level, replacing the fossil generation capacity that would be needed to meet the new

energy demand, as modeled in the WoM scenario.


impact




impact


New capacity 3,600 MW


New annual electricity generated 12,924 GWh


Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 67.62 0.00 67.62

2030 67.62 0.00 67.62



MW of electricity generated by the constructed Rogun Hydropower Plant going

into the Tajikistan electricity grid.

Percentage of renewable energy in the share of the Tajikistan electricity grid.

Hectares of irrigated arid land.



the project will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of

Tajikistan.


1.2. EBRD Sustainable Energy Financing

Facilities


https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp025-

ebrd-armenia-egypt-georgia-jordan-republic-moldova-mongolia-morocco-serbia.pdf.

Description of the action: The project will contribute to achieving a paradigm shift by

creating new and significantly scaling up existing markets for commercial sustainable

energy, energy efficiency and climate resilience financing. By doing so it will contribute

to the aim as stated in the Paris Agreement to “make finance flows consistent with a

pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development”,

through an innovative combination of financial support, capacity building and technology

transfer and supported by a deep level of country ownership.

The project will deliver scale over the next three years by financing, via local PFIs, more

than 20,000 scalable and replicable renewable energy, energy efficiency, and climate

resilience projects across the industrial, commercial, residential, transport, and

agricultural sectors in the Middle East and North Africa, Western and Central Asia and

Southern and Eastern Europe. It will address multiple market barriers along the

technology supply chains and unlock the potential of private sector finance by:

Building the capacity of all actors along the climate technology supply chain, in

particular by encouraging local PFIs to establish and grow climate financing

solutions for RE, EE and CR that currently either do not exist at all, or are

underserved;

Stimulating demand for best-available climate technologies by providing much-

needed long-term finance that more closely matches the financial characteristics

of RE, EE and CR projects; and

Facilitating the creation of new markets by demonstrating the profitability and

enhanced competitiveness of climate technologies and ultimately de-risking

climate investments to leverage a growing level of funding from the private sector

over time.

Implementation period: The project will be finalized by 2032.

Assumptions: The mitigation impact of this action has not been estimated.

Results:

https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp025-ebrd-armenia-egypt-georgia-jordan-republic-moldova-mongolia-morocco-serbia.pdf

https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp025-ebrd-armenia-egypt-georgia-jordan-republic-moldova-mongolia-morocco-serbia.pdf




reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA



Number of energy efficiency, renewable energy and climate resilience projects

implemented.

MW of electricity installed.

GWh of annual final energy savings through improved energy efficiency.

Number of beneficiaries relative to the total population of Tajikistan.

Tons of carbon dioxide equivalent to be reduces or avoided.


the project will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of

Tajikistan.



1.3. Scaling Up Hydropower Sector Climate

Resilience



ebrd-tajikistan.pdf.

Description of the action: Tajikistan is the most vulnerable country to climate change

in the Europe & Central Asia (ECA) region. Its energy system is dominated by

hydropower and is therefore highly exposed to climate change risks. Hydropower is of

fundamental importance for economic development and living standards in Tajikistan,

and climate change is a hugely important risk amplifier in this already precarious and

challenging context. Strengthened governance and institutions are necessary to improve

the climate resilience of hydropower systems. Additionally, the climate vulnerability of

Tajikistan’s energy systems also has important social and gender dimensions.

In response to these severe challenges, the proposed Project aims to scale up the

adoption of climate resilience practices and technologies in the Tajik hydropower sector.

Enhanced institutional capacities, modern climate resilience technologies and adequate

technical skills are urgently needed in Tajikistan to address the risks associated with

climate change in the fragile and highly climate-vulnerable hydropower system. The

proposed Project will support the transfer of knowledge and technologies for achieving

these vital targets for Tajikistan’s strategically important hydropower sector. This will be

accomplished through a Project structure consisting of three closely inter-related

components linked to three targeted Project Outputs. Project implementation is

structured in two phases. The funds for Phase I have already been committed by EBRD

and the CIF’s Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR), as set out in section B.2.

This proposal is for further funding under Phase II. This arrangement will allow for a

smoother, gradual implementation of the overall Project. The phases are intended to be

staggered and to overlap each other in order to ensure smooth implementation and the

effective coordination of project activities. Phase I has now reached a critical stage, with

all the procurement arrangements and engineering services (covering both phases) now

in place, and Phase I physical works about to commence. This means that it is now timely

to plan ahead and secure the funding for Phase II so that the physical works of Phase II

can begin smoothly and without interruption, taking into account the length of time

needed to secure the funding and all necessary approvals.

The proposed Project will be delivered through a structured approach comprising of

technical assistance, policy dialogue and facility upgrades in close partnership with the

Tajik authorities.

The specific objectives of the Project are the following:

1. To increase the adoption of best international practices in the assessment and

management of climate change risks to hydropower operations by Tajik

https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp040-ebrd-tajikistan.pdf

https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp040-ebrd-tajikistan.pdf


hydropower operators and other associated agencies such as providers of

hydromet services (Phase I+II);

2. To develop institutional capacities and structures needed to ensure effective

transboundary management of hydropower cascades in order to promote the

climate resilience of hydropower operations (Phase II); and

3. To scale up the integration of climate resilience approaches, technologies and

design standards into a strategic hydropower facility with a powerful

demonstration impact (Phase I + II).

Specific benefits will include:

The modernisation of a major hydropower facility taking into account projected

future climate conditions.

The population of Sughd region (approx. 2,400,000 people), in particular women,

to benefit from a more secure and climate-resilient electricity supply.

Implementation period: The project will be finalized in 2057.

Assumptions: The impact of this action is already considered under 1.22. Long-Term

Small Hydro Power Plant Construction Program in Section 5 and under 1.1. Rogan

Hydropower Plant in Section 6. Therefore, its implementation does not involve additional

GHG emission reductions.

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 IE IE IE

2020 IE IE IE

2025 IE IE IE

2030 IE IE IE



Number of project beneficiaries relative to the total population of Tajikistan.

Number of physical assets made more resilient to climate variability and change.

Number of institutional and regulatory systems that improve incentives for climate

resilience.

Number of households and SMEs with access to climate resilient, sustainable

energy.


the project will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources and the Committee for

Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.



1.4. Institutional Development of the State

Agency for Hydrometeorology of Tajikistan


https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp075-adb-

tajikistan.pdf.

Description of the action: Tajikistan already faces recurring climate-related extreme

weather events, particularly flood and landslides. Climate change is expected to

exacerbate these impacts. Districts in the Pyanj River Basin, in particular, are among

poorest and most vulnerable to climate change.

However, low capacity in the country the forecasting of weather, hydrometeorological,

and climatic conditions remain a critical weakness in the country. Disaster risk mitigation

and response in vulnerable communities, as well as broader climate change adaptation

efforts, are thus hampered. The responsible forecasting entity, the State Agency for

Hydrometeorology (Hydromet) is crippled by many of the common problems faced by

post-Soviet institutions including limited budget, decaying infrastructure, and poor staff

retention. Its technical capacity is relatively low, and government and civil society

stakeholders are generally unsatisfied with the forecasting services offered by Hydromet.

Without interventions addressing its underlying weaknesses, Hydromet capacity and

outputs will likely continue to languish.

The subject proposed project will support Hydromet’s development to a sustainable and

well-resourced institution that produces timely and accurate forecasting of extreme

weather events particularly in the PRB. In doing so, the project will address key

institutional weaknesses. The project will (i) modernize Hydromet’s campus and

associated facilities [Component A], (ii) support legal and organizational transformation

and capacity building of Hydromet into a government entity with flexibility to set staff

salaries and retain additional entrepreneurial revenue [Component B], (iii) undertake

capacity building for improve forecasting and warning of extreme weather events

[Component C], and (iv) support development and implementation of a viable business

model through marketing of fee-based services [Component D]. The project’s primary

measurable benefit (indicators) are (i) Hydromet develops and disseminates timely and

accurate forecasts of flood events in the PRB and (ii) Hydromet develops a weather

service product marketed to customers in the PRB.



Results:


https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp075-adb-tajikistan.pdf

https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp075-adb-tajikistan.pdf



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA



Number of surveyed government and civil society stakeholders’ beneficiaries

under the project.

Number of purchased equipment for the hydrometeorology institution.


the institutional development will be the Agency for Hydrometeorology of the Committee

for Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.




In the project no planned mitigation actions and with impact in IPPU emissions have

been identified.


3. AFOLU


AFOLU sector in Tajikistan.

3.1. Forest Sector Development Strategy for

2016-2030

Background documents: The description of the proposed Strategy is available at

https://www.landuse-ca.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Forest-Sector-Development-

Strategy-for-Tajikistan-RU.pdf.

Description of the action: The forest sector development strategy for 2016-2030

(hereinafter referred to as the Strategy) is aimed at the sustainable development of the

forest sector of the Republic of Tajikistan to ensure a balance of ecological, economic

and social functions of the forest, the implementation of which contributes to addressing

important aspects of Tajikistan's forest reform and is consistent with the main priorities

of the National Strategy the development of the Republic of Tajikistan.

The main objectives of the Strategy are:

conservation of forest biodiversity, restoration and conservation of forests,

increase in their area and productivity;

improving the quality and quantity of ecosystem services provided under climate

change;

promoting the development of the economy by attracting entrepreneurs to the

forest sector and increasing the efficiency of forestry;

improving the welfare of the local population by involving them in forestry and

providing forest products based on sustainable forest use.

strengthening the participation of civil society, in particular women, in forest policy

issues at the national and local levels;

strengthening the role of forests of the Republic of Tajikistan in fulfilling

international obligations and global programs for sustainable forest development

and for mitigating and adapting to climate change.

One of the indicators of the strategy, which will be used to estimate the potential

mitigation GHG impact is the "planting of 10 thousand hectares new forests adapted to

the terrain in the face of climate change". More specifically, according to the strategy:

new forests will be planted in the amount of not less than 1 thousand ha per year,

degraded forests in the amount of not less than 2 thousand ha per year will be

restored, and

assistance will be provided in the natural restoration of degraded forests in the

amount of not less than 8 thousand ha per year

https://www.landuse-ca.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Forest-Sector-Development-Strategy-for-Tajikistan-RU.pdf

https://www.landuse-ca.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Forest-Sector-Development-Strategy-for-Tajikistan-RU.pdf


The "Forest Sector Development Strategy 2016-2030" was prepared in 2015, however it

has not been approved by the Government, yet. The planned duration of the Strategy is

up to 2030.

Assumptions: According to the strategy:

new forests will be planted in the amount of not less than 1 thousand ha per year;

degraded forests in the amount of not less than 2 thousand ha per year will be

restored; and

assistance will be provided in the natural restoration of degraded forests in the

amount of not less than 8 thousand ha per year.

Implementation Period: 2021-2030

Mitigation effect of new forests of 1 thousand ha per year, starting in 2021.

Table 130. General assumptions for the estimation of the potential GHG

mitigation effect of new forests of 1 thousand ha per year, starting in 2021.





2006 IPCC GLs,

subtropical steppe



Average annual biomass growth

above- and below-ground,

Gtotal

9.36 t dm/(ha yr)





growth ΔCG

4586.4 tC/yr



Mitigation effect of restoration of degraded forests, starting in 2021.

According to the national inventory, the average annual above-ground biomass growth

(Gw) of forests in Tajikistan is 0.8 t dm/(ha yr). We assume that this annual growth of

biomass will be restored to degraded forests.


mitigation effect of restoration of degraded forests.


Restored forest land 10,000 ha




biomass growth, Gw 0.8 t dm/(ha yr) National inventory

Ratio of below-ground biomass to

above-ground biomass, R 0.56 National inventory

Average annual biomass growth

above- and below-ground, Gtotal 1.248 t dm/(ha yr)

Carbon fraction of dry matter, CF 0.49 tC / t dm National inventory



growth ΔCG

6115.2 tC/yr

Annual loss of carbon CL 10%


Results:



action

2016 NA

2020 NA

2025 176.58

2030 353.15



Hectares of newly planted forests.

Hectares of degraded forests which is restored.

Hectares of national restoration of degraded forests.

Number of people involved in forest policy issues at national and local levels.


the forest sector development will be the Forestry Agency under the Government of the




3.2. Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program

for the Aral Sea Basin



world-bank-tajikistan-and-uzbekistan.pdf.

Description of the action: The proposed GCF financing of US$19 million would scale

up the first phase of the World Bank Group (WBG) supported Climate Adaptation and

Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin (CAMP4ASB), which focuses on Tajikistan and

Uzbekistan (while future phases of the Program, under preparation, will progressively

cover the remaining Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, and

Turkmenistan). A further allocation of US$27 million from GCF will be requested for the

remaining Central Asian countries, for which GCF’s funding approval will be issued upon

WB submission of program details for those countries.

CAMP4ASB seeks to help Central Asian countries build upon the benefits of regional

cooperation to address the mounting challenges from climate change, which often

transcend borders.

The WBG-supported program lays the foundation for an institutional platform for regional

cooperation on climate change across a broad range of sectors. This will be the first such

platform in Central Asia that will provide access to improved climate change knowledge

services for climate change assessment and decision-making and to increased financing

and technical assistance, on a demand-driven basis, for climate investments in priority

areas common to Central Asian countries.

While the associated WBG program will provide financing via sub-loans primarily to

farmers (Dekhan and commercial farmers), resource user groups (e.g., water user

associations), village communities, and private companies for climate investments

(resilience or mitigation), GCF financing will provide investment support via sub-grants

to the most vulnerable communities for climate resilient measures in priority areas,

including to the poorest populations residing on fringe/risk-prone areas and marginalized

groups such as women. Successfully building climate change resilience in Tajikistan and

Uzbekistan will require increasing engagement with those most adversely affected by

climate change, and community facilitation support and capacity building will accompany

investments and be designed to reach those who are marginalized and most vulnerable.

The combination of WBG and GCF financing will allow CAMP4ASB to pilot certain

climate-smart activities that could not have otherwise been implemented at this scale,

and double the Project’s expected benefits. In particular, GCF-financed activities will

strengthen the climate resilience of those most vulnerable to climate change, by

supporting the adoption of climate-smart rural production and landscape management

investments that aim to achieve multiple benefits (e.g., climate resilience, food security,

increased well-being of beneficiaries, including gender and social inclusion).

https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp014-world-bank-tajikistan-and-uzbekistan.pdf

https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp014-world-bank-tajikistan-and-uzbekistan.pdf


The primary measurable benefits will be monitored against indicators such as (i) number

of direct project beneficiaries (disaggregated by gender) (205,000 in total), (ii) number of

hectares covered by effective agricultural, land and water management practices suited

to local agro-ecological conditions and climate change resilience (35,000 hectares), and

(iii) lessons from climate change knowledge services and climate-smart investments

financed under CAMP4ASB informing country planning processes, including through

scaled-up sectoral programs for climate smart development (3 plans and programs that

draw on Project’s climate knowledge services).



Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA




Hectares covered by effective agriculture, land, and water management

practices.

Tons of carbon dioxide equivalent to be reduces or avoided.


the adaptation and mitigation program will be the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of

Energy and Water Resources and the Committee for Environmental Protection under the




3.3. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable

and Food Insecure Communities through

Capacity Strengthening and Livelihood

Diversification in Mountainous Regions of

Tajikistan


https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp067-wfp-

tajikistan.pdf.

Description of the action: The project “Building climate resilience of vulnerable and

food insecure communities through capacity strengthening and livelihood diversification

in mountainous regions of Tajikistan” will increase the adaptive capacities of the most

vulnerable and food insecure communities residing in Rasht valley, Khatlon and

GornoBadakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) regions. Due to their location, these

communities are vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change, particularly from

rainfall variability resulting in adverse livelihood impacts, increasing temperatures with

glacial melting and sudden onset extreme events causing loss and damage, in addition

to high levels of malnutrition and poverty (See Annex 1.3). The proposed project

intervention takes a transformative approach to ensure food security and support

communities to adapt to climate change through two key components:

i. Capacity strengthening and awareness raising of food insecure climate

vulnerable communities and national actors for enhanced rural resilience and

food security; and

ii. Resilience building at household and community level through diversification of

livelihoods and improved market access.

A key element of this approach will be addressing institutional capacity needs at both

national and sub-national levels to better understand needs and support vulnerable

communities develop effective responses to prepare for and manage climate risks.

Interventions of the project will reach 50,000 direct beneficiaries among the estimated

270,000 vulnerable individuals residing in climate vulnerable areas, and up to 70,000

indirect beneficiaries, who live in the proposed project locations. The proposed project

contributes to climate-resilient development pathways in Tajikistan through the sustained

impact of project measures that have high potential for replicability and scale. Overall,

many of these measures can be scaled to reach 100% of national coverage. The project

stimulates a demand-based model for climate information and use of ICT/mobile

platforms to enable public and private sector participation, innovation, and market

development. It contributes to key policies in the country and supports efforts to

mainstream gender-responsive climate change adaptation into development plans. It

institutionalizes knowledge generation and learning through the incorporation of climate

change and food security in national and district level planning processes. At the

https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp067-wfp-tajikistan.pdf

https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp067-wfp-tajikistan.pdf


community level, the project introduces new technologies such as renewables,

rehabilitates dilapidated assets that take into account the diverse needs and capacities

of women and men and that strengthens community resilience through tailored social

and behavioural change interventions.



Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 NA NA NA

2030 NA NA NA




Number of farmers with better understanding and knowledge regarding climate

change.

Number of greenhouses, storage facilities and renewable energy based systems

established.

Number of natural and physical livelihood assets created and improved for

increased community and household resilience.


the project will be the Committee for Environmental Protection under the Government of




4. Waste

In the project no planned mitigation actions and with impact in waste emissions have

been identified.


Section 7 - Mitigation Options

The following are the list of mitigation options identified by the working team based on

their mitigation potential for reducing GHG emissions in the country. The mitigation

options are considered under the WaM scenario (further information is available in

section 10 below).

1. Energy



1.1. Energy efficiency in the

residential/commercial/institutional sector

Background documents: NA

Description of the action: Replacement of coal boilers and stoves by efficient electric

devices.

Assumptions: The total terajoules (TJ) of anthracite consumed are calculated in the

national GHG emissions inventory and the WoM scenario for the residential, commercial,

and institutional sectors and considered as the reference scenario for the estimation of

impact of this action. This TJ will be replaced by electric devices for an equivalent

amount. It is assumed that all anthracite consumption is replaced by electricity

consumption by 2030.

Implementation Period: the mitigation option starts in 2022 and is implemented lineally

up to 2030.


impact

Variable

Valu

e

Unit

s

TJ of Anthracite consumption in the WoM for the residential, commercial

and institutional sectors - -


impact




Conversion factor from TJ to GWh 0.28 TJ/GWh

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 0.00 0.00 0.00

2020 0.00 0.00 0.00

2025 1454.05 817.28 636.77

2030 1957.51 28.70 1928.81



Number of coal boilers and stoves replaced by efficient electric devices.

Total TJ of anthracite replaced by electricity consumption.


the energy efficiency will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic

of Tajikistan.



1.2. Reduction of electricity consumption in

aluminium production


Description of the action: Aluminium production is highly energy-intensive, with

electricity making up a large share of the energy consumed. Aluminium production is one

of the key industries operating in Tajikistan. The reduction of energy intensities of

aluminium production would have a significative GHG emission reduction potential. An

increasing share of secondary production will be the primary catalyst of energy intensity

improvements. Primary production is approximately ten times more energy intensive than

secondary production.

Assumptions: all electricity used by the industry has been assumed to be consumed by

the aluminium industry. This consumption has been projected applying the evolution of

the GDP series. Through an improvement in the recycling and sorting of material, 50%

of national production of aluminium will be secondary. It is also assumed that primary

production is approximately ten times more energy intensive than secondary production

(https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-industry/aluminium ).


up to 2030.


impact


GHG emissions of the WoM



impact


Secondary aluminium production 50 %

Energy efficiency improvements 90 %

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-industry/aluminium


2025 31.15 24.92 6.23

2030 42.10 23.16 18.95




Percentage of secondary production used as the primary catalyst of energy.

MW of electricity consumed after the implementation of secondary production.


the reduction of electricity consumption will be the Ministry of Energy and Water






IPPU sector in Tajikistan.

2.1. Reduction of clinker content of cement


Description of the action: The emissions of cement production occur in the production

of clinker. By reducing the clinker content of cement, the emissions of the process are

reduced significantly

Assumptions: National total cement production is calculated from clinker production,

assuming it contains a 95% of clinker.

The reduction scenario is calculated assuming a clinker content in the cement of 70 %,

in a slag-modified Portland. All clinker is assumed to be produced in Tajikistan


up to 2030.


impact


Content of clinker in cement 95% %

Emission factor 0.52 Tonnes CO2 / tonne clinker


impact


Content of clinker in cement 70% %

Emission factor 0.52 Tonnes CO2 / tonne clinker

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 1517.34 1339.87 177.47


2030 1936.55 1426.93 509.62



Percentage of clinker content in cement.

Kilograms of cement produced in Tajikistan.


the reduction of clinker content will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of




2.2. Phase down of F-gases


Description of the action: F-gases consumed in refrigeration, air conditioning, fire

extinguishers and aerosols are replaced by low carbon refrigerants.

Assumptions: It is assumed that 50% of the market is replaced by low carbon

alternatives by 2030. The estimate made in the WoM scenario is assumed to be reduced

by a 50%.


up to 2030.

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 372.58 289.78 82.80

2030 414.28 207.14 207.14



Number of refrigeration, air conditioning, fire extinguishers, and aerosols using

low carbon refrigerants.

Number of refrigeration, air conditioning, fire extinguishers, and aerosols

consuming F-gases.


the mitigation option will be the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic

of Tajikistan.



3. AFOLU


AFOLU sector in Tajikistan.

3.1. Enhancing removals by creating new fruit

orchards and vineyards


Description of the action: Horticulture and viticulture is one of the key agricultural

sectors of the Republic of Tajikistan, able to provide the country's domestic market with

food, increase the export potential of the republic and provide the population with

permanent work.

According to the "Horticulture and Viticulture Development Program in the Republic of

Tajikistan for 2016 – 2020", there is a shortage of fruits to ensure the physiological needs

of the country's population and to ensure food security. On the other hand, the plantation

of new high-yielding fruit orchards will increase woody biomass carbon sequestration.

This mitigation option is associated to the plantation of new fruit orchards and vineyards,

in addition to those referred in the "Horticulture and Viticulture Development Program in

the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016 – 2020".

Assumptions: The mitigation impact was calculated by considering that the baseline

emissions are those as included in the inventory. Since the IPCC Tier 1 method was

applied for the inventory, the same method was applied to estimate the mitigation impact.

Woody fruit trees in orchards and vineyards can store significant carbon in long-lived

biomass, the amount depending on species type and cultivar, density, growth rates, and

harvesting and pruning practices.

The mitigation potential that is associated to the plantation of new orchards and vineyards

on an area of 20 thousand hectares for the 5 years period up to 2025 is estimated (10%

vineyards and 90% fruit orchards).

It was assumed that these plantations accumulate biomass linearly until they reach

maturity, assumed to be at half the replacement cycle. During maturity biomass increases

are offset by losses from pruning - in order the tree to be retained to the desired form -

and natural mortality, and hence changes in living biomass are assumed to be zero. The

annual growth rate (GW), during the growth period, is derived thus by dividing biomass

stock at maturity by the time from crop establishment to maturity reach.



Table 145. General assumptions for the estimation of the Increase of above

ground biomass C stock due to new woody plantations (orchards and vineyards)

Tree crops

Average

Aboveground

fresh biomass

stock

Biomass

moisture

Average

Aboveground

biomass stock

Carbon

fraction of

dry matter

Average

aboveground

biomass C

stock

Harvest

cycle

Annual C

uptake from

crop growth

t fresh b/ha % t dm/ha t C/t dm t C/ha yr t C/ha yr

Vineyards 20 40 12 0.5 6 26 0.46153846

Fruit trees 80 40 48 0.5 24 26 1.84615385

Land of new woody plantations 20,000 Ha

Land of vineyards 2,000 Ha

Land of fruit plantations 18,000 Ha


Results:



action

2016 NA

2020 NA

2025 NA

2030 125.23



Hectares of newly planted fruit orchards

Hectares of newly planted vineyards.

Hectares of newly planted woody plantations.


the plantation will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.2. Agroforestry and / or silvo-pastoral systems


Description of the action: Agroforestry and silvo-pastoral systems is the production of

livestock or food crops on land that also grows trees for timber, firewood, or other tree

products. It includes shelter belts and riparian zones/buffer strips with woody species.

The standing stock of carbon above ground is usually higher than the equivalent land

use without trees, and planting trees may also increase soil carbon sequestration.

Planting shrubs and trees in pastures or alleys interspersed with food crops to provide

additional sources of high-quality forage and improve animal nutrition.

Trees planted for silvo-pastoral systems can result in increased carbon stocks in living

biomass. They also systems provide more wood, reduce demand/pressure on wood

removals from forest, which cause forest degradation. The quality of forage improves,

and soil organic matter is maintained.

This mitigation option is associated to the improving agroforestry and/or silvo-pastoral

systems by planting shrubs and trees in pastures and agricultural land.

Assumptions: According to national statistics, the sown area of agricultural crops for

2018 in Tajikistan is 826,705 ha. The mitigation option of setting under agro-forestry a

20% of agricultural land up to 2025. will be estimated. In addition, the mitigation option

of setting under silvo-pastoral systems a 5% of pastures will be estimated (3,847,522 ha)

up to 2025.


AR of IPCC related to Agriculture (Smith et al 2007)22.



mitigation effect of agro-forestry practices


Total sown area of agricultural crops for 2018 826,705 ha

Percentage of land under agroforestry 20%



22 Smith, P., D. Martino, Z. Cai, D. Gwary, H. Janzen, P. Kumar, B. McCarl, S. Ogle, F. O’Mara, C. Rice, B. Scholes, O. Sirotenko, 2007: Agriculture. In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.



mitigation effect of silvo-pastoral systems


Total area of pastures 3,847,522 ha

Percentage of land under agroforestry 5%


mitigation impact 67.33 ktCO2/yr

Results:



action

2016 NA

2020 NA

2025 NA

2030 125.20



Hectares of agricultural land planted with shrubs and trees.

Hectares of pastures planted with shrubs and trees.

Total hectares of created agroforestry and/or silvo-pastoral systems.


the plantation will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.3. Minimal or no tillage/residue management


Description of the action: Advances in weed control methods and farm machinery now

allow many crops to be grown with minimal tillage (reduced tillage) or without tillage (no-

till). Since soil disturbance tends to stimulate soil carbon losses through enhanced

decomposition and erosion, reduced- or no-till agriculture often results in soil carbon gain.

Further, no-tillage systems can reduce CO2 emissions from energy use. Systems that

retain crop residues also tend to increase soil carbon because these residues are the

precursors for soil organic matter, the main carbon store in soil. Avoiding the burning of

residues also avoids emissions of aerosols and GHGs generated from fire, although CO2

emissions from fuel use may increase.

Switching to no-till or conservation tillage agriculture has the following effects that are

related to potential mitigation potential:

Soils are less disturbed or undisturbed; crop residues are not incorporated or are

less incorporated

Organic matter decomposition is slowed compared to disturbed soils (due to

reduced aeration and oxidation)

Soil organic carbon content increases; soil quality and resilience is enhanced;

formation of more stable humus is increase

Fossil fuel consumption decreases

This mitigation option is associated to switching to no-till or conservation tillage

agriculture. Currently, according to the monitoring of the "Agriculture Reform Programme

of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2012-2020", minimal or zero tillage (mulching) is carried

out on 5% of the total area of arable land.

Assumptions: According to national statistics, the sown area of agricultural crops for

2018 in Tajikistan is 826,705 ha. Currently, minimal or zero tillage (mulching) is carried

out on 5% of the total area of arable land in Tajikistan. The potential GHG mitigation

effect of the option of increasing the no-till or conservation tillage agriculture to 15% up

to 2025 will be estimated.







mitigation effect


Total sown area of agricultural crops for 2018 826,705 ha

Additional percentage of land under no-till or

conservation tillage agriculture 10%



Results:



action

2016 NA

2020 NA

2025 NA

2030 28.93



Hectares of agricultural land switched to no-till agriculture.

Hectares of agricultural land switched to conservation tillage agriculture.


the switch will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.4. Improved agronomic practices through the

continuation of the Development Program for

Seed Production of the Republic of Tajikistan


Description of the action: The main objective of the Program was the promotion of

selection and seed-growing with a view of formation of this sector of the national economy

capable of the functioning in compliance with international norms and standards.

Selection and seed-growing must be aimed at the promotion of plant varieties,

introduction, testing and registration of plant varieties, use of different seed-growing

methods for the extension of crop cultivation through application of new technologies,

and also commercial production, reproduction, processing, certification and marketing of

high quality seeds for internal market and export. In particular, this Program is oriented

towards introduction of new high-yielding cotton varieties and production of high-quality

cotton seeds.

This mitigation option refers to the continuation of the "Development Program for Seed

Production of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016 - 2020" up to 2025. The potential

mitigation effect will be estimated by assuming that the continuation of the Programme

would result in an additional use of arable area under elite seeds.

Assumptions: The potential GHG mitigation impact will be related to an additional

increase in the area under elite seeds. We assume that elite seeds will be used for an

additional 10% of agricultural land up to 2025, which is used for the following agricultural

crops: cotton, cereals, legumes, potatoes and fodder crops. The mitigation potential will

be correlated to the improved agronomic practices that increase yields and generate

higher inputs of carbon residue and by this way can lead to increased soil carbon storage.

The type of improved agronomic practice is the use of improved crop varieties.




24 Smith, P., D. Martino, Z. Cai, D. Gwary, H. Janzen, P. Kumar, B. McCarl, S. Ogle, F. O’Mara, C. Rice, B. Scholes, O. Sirotenko, 2007: Agriculture. In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA


Table 152. Arable area per crop25

Crop Area Units

Cotton 254,830 ha

Cereals 384,940 ha

Legumes 11,790 ha

Potatoes 29,750 ha

Fodder crops 166,490 ha


mitigation impact


Total area of cotton, cereals,

legumes, potatoes and fodder

crops

847,800 ha

Percentage of land under

improved agronomy practices 10%



Results:



action

2016 NA

2020 NA

2025 NA

2030 33.06



Number of newly used high-yielding seed-growing methods

Hectares of land used to plant elite seeds such as cotton, cereals, legumes,

potatoes, and fodder crops.

25 Source: STATE OF PLANT GENETIC RESOURCES FOR FOOD AND AGRICULTURE (PGRFA) IN THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN, COUNTRY REPORT BY PROF. DR. HAFIZ MUMINJANOV, DUSHANBE 2008



the seed development will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.5. Livestock Management through the

continuation of the Comprehensive livestock

development program


Description of the action: Integrated Program of Livestock Sector Development in the

Republic of Tajikistan for the period of 2018-2022 is a cross-sectoral policy document

envisaging the development of the livestock sector, which covers a range of zootechnical,

biotechnological and economic measures aimed at growing, preserving and increasing

the number of cattle, poultry, bees, fish, and their breeds in the country, as well as the

breeding of new high-yielding breeds. At the same time, ensuring the development of

livestock breeding industries within the framework of measures aimed at organizing and

conducting selection and breeding works, improving growing technology and feeding

standards for livestock, poultry, fish and bees, and increasing productivity of pastures by

indigenous and surface methods with the use of modern achievements. For further

development of the livestock sector, it is very important to provide a stable fodder supply

and it is expedient to create enterprises for the production of mixed fodder.

This mitigation option refers to the continuation of the "Comprehensive livestock

development program for 2018 - 2022" up to 2027. The potential mitigation effect will be

estimated by assuming that the continuation of the Programme would affect the 40% of

cattle population.

Assumptions: The estimation of the mitigation impacts are consistent with the data and

methods applied in the National Inventory of Tajikistan.


AR of IPCC related to Agriculture (Smith et al 2007).26

The affected livestock population from the continuation of the Programme is assumed to

be 40% of cattle population.



mitigation effect




Total Cattle in 2016 2,278,072 heads National inventory

Percentage of cattle affected by

the programme 40% % Assumption

Enteric methane production in

2016 132 kt CH4 National inventory

GWP of CH4 25 4AR IPCC


2016 2763.747 kt CO2 eq National inventory

Technical reduction potential

(proportion of an animal’s enteric

methane production) for enteric

methane emissions due to longer

term structural/management

change and animal breeding

2% IPCC 2007

Efficiency of the programme 80% % Assumption

Mitigation effect 13.27 kt CO2 eq/year Calculation

Results:



action

2016 NA

2020 NA

2025 NA

2030 15.79



Percentage of the cattle population affected by the newly high-yielding breeds.

Percentage of the cattle population affected by the newly introduced modern

technologies.


the cattle population under the project will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic

of Tajikistan.



3.6. Fat supplementation in ruminants’ diets


Description of the action: Fat supplementation is one of various feeding practices

aiming to reduce GHG emission from livestock operations (others include, for example,

reduced protein content of the diet and feed supplements). This measure is based on

increasing some of the commonly used feed ingredients in the diet. A traditional ruminant

diet, depending on whether the animal is mostly grazing or fed a high proportion of

concentrates (non-forage feeds high in energy and/or protein content, e.g. a mixture of

grains, soybean meal, beet pulp, etc.) contains 1.5-3 dry matter % (DM%) fat. Increasing

the fat content reduces enteric CH4 emissions from the rumen via biological processes

in the digestive system. The CH4 reduction is proportional to the fat content, but, due to

potential health issues and practical aspects, a limit of 5-6 DM% total fat content is

necessary. Various supplementary fat sources exist: whole seeds (e.g. rapeseed,

linseed, soybean), plant oils (e.g. sunflower oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, coconut oil), and

special products (e.g. Energy Booster, Megalac). Alternative sources can be the high-oil

by-products of the biofuel industries. Some farmers with high-productivity herds are

already supplementing fat to their animals, to boost the energy content of the diet.

However, even for those animals the total fat content might be below 5-6 DM%. The

additional uptake potential is even higher in those herds which are currently not receiving

fat supplementation, though the incorporation of fat in the diet for animals mainly fed on

forages (i.e. grazing and cut grass) might not be practical.

Assumptions: The mitigation impact will be calculated by using the guidance from the

following reference:

MacLeod, M. et al. (2015-08-01), “Cost-Effectiveness of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

Measures for Agriculture: A Literature Review”, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries

Papers, No. 89, OECD Publishing, Paris.

With every 1% fat added, CH4 emissions are reduced by approximately 4% across all

ruminants. We assume that fat supplementation may be performed to 10% of cattle

population.



mitigation effect


Total Cattle in 2016 2,278,072 heads National inventory

Percentage of cattle affected by

the mitigation option 10% % Assumption


2016 132 kt CH4 National inventory



GWP of CH4 25 - 4AR IPCC


2016 2763.747 kt CO2 eq National inventory

Fat added to animal feed 2 %DM fat added Assumption

1% fat added 4% Reduction in CH4 Assumption


Results:



action

2016 NA

2020 NA

2025 26.32

2030 26.32



Percentage of dietary fat contents of the cattle population.


the cattle’s diet will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan.



3.7. Rice cultivation management


Description of the action: Cultivated wetland rice soils emit significant quantities of

methane. Emissions during the growing season can be reduced by various practices.

For example, draining wetland rice once or several times during the growing season

reduces CH4 emissions. Rice cultivars with low exudation rates could offer an important

methane mitigation option. In the off-rice season, methane emissions can be reduced by

improved water management, especially by keeping the soil as dry as possible and

avoiding water logging. Increasing rice production can also enhance soil organic carbon

stocks. Methane emissions can be reduced by adjusting the timing of organic residue

additions (e.g., incorporating organic materials in the dry period rather than in flooded

periods; by composting the residues before incorporation, or by producing biogas for use

as fuel for energy production.

According to the national GHG inventory, the rice straw is incorporated shortly (<30days)

before cultivation. There is a GHG mitigation potential in the case of a long fallow after

rice straw incorporation: CH4 emissions in the ensuing rice-growing season will be less

than the case that rice straw is incorporated just before rice transplanting. This mitigation

option refers to the above-mentioned mitigation potential.








mitigation effect


Conversion factor

(CFOA) for the case that straw is

incorporated shortly (<30 days)

before cultivation

1 - 2006 IPCC GLs

Conversion factor

(CFOA) for the case that straw is

incorporated long (>30 days) before

cultivation

0.29 - 2006 IPCC GLs

Adjusted daily EF for a particular

harvested area (straw is

incorporated shortly)

3.71796 kgCH4/ha/day 2006 IPCC GLs +

National inventory



Adjusted daily EF for a particular

harvested area (straw is

incorporated long)

2.87042 kgCH4/ha/day 2006 IPCC GLs +

National inventory

Area of rice cultivation 20,501 ha National inventory

Cultivation period 135 days National inventory

GWP of CH4 25 - 4AR IPCC


Results:



action

2016 NA

2020 NA

2025 58.64

2030 58.64



Number of days the rice straw is incorporated before cultivation.


the rice cultivation management will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of

Tajikistan.



3.8. Continuation of the Pasture Development

Programme after 2020


Description of the action: Improving the condition of pastures has a special place in

ensuring the food security of the country and reducing poverty. At the same time, it

should be noted that in recent years, most of the pastures have been degraded,

especially pastures located near settlements and some of them are turning into a desert

zone. In many pastures, water supply facilities are unsuitable for exploitation. Due to the

lack of cattle drive roads and bridges, watering and feeding areas, about 1 million

hectares of pastures are partially used, and some areas are not used at all. As a result

of mudflow rains, hail, fires and other natural and anthropogenic factors, more than a

thousand hectares of pastures annually undergo degradation and erosion. At the same

time, according to statistics, in comparison with 1991, the livestock population increased.

Due to the lack of grazing feed in the winter, livestock loss of small livestock from 10 to

25 percent occurs.

Failure to prevent this unfavorable situation can lead to dangerous irretrievable

consequences. For the development of animal husbandry, it is necessary to create a

solid fodder base. Based on this, improvement of quality, productivity, appropriate and

rational regulation and use of pastures are the main factors in the development of

agriculture production. Please to the link:

http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/taj170827.pdf for more details about the Programme.

This mitigation option refers to the continuation of the Pasture Development Program of

the Republic of Tajikistan up to 2025, covering an area of pastures of 20,000 ha.






The mitigation effect does not reflect any potential positive impact to livestock productivity

associated to increased availability of fodder and grass from pastures.




Land-use

category

Reference

soil

carbon

stock


Representative

soil carbon

stock

Parameter

s source



SOCref


Grassland

(pasture)

before

LPDP

4 1 0.9 1 3.6 National

inventory

Grassland-

improved

pasture

after LPDP

4 1 1.14 1 4.56

National

inventory

& 2006

IPCC GLs




Results:



action

2016 NA

2020 NA

2025 NA

2030 3.52



Stocks of pasture vegetation after the continuation of the Pasture Development

Programme.

Hectares of improved pastures.


the Pasture Development Programme will be the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic

of Tajikistan.



4. Waste


waste sector in Tajikistan.

4.1. Reduction of open burning


Description of the action: In line with national efforts to improve solid waste practices,

the national waste management system could be extended to rural areas, reducing the

GHG emissions that occur in the open burning of waste. This mitigation option assumes

that all wastes generated by rural population are treated in solid waste disposal sites.

Assumptions: GHG emissions from open burning of waste will be eliminated and will be

replaced by those occurring in landfills.

GHG emissions from landfills in rural areas are calculated in the 2006 IPCC waste model

using the same parameters used for urban population emissions calculated in the WoM.


up to 2030.


impact


Open burning GHG emissions per capita 0.07595 GHG emissions/thousand inhabitants


impact



Methane correction

factor 0.5

wt.

Fraction


% to SWDS 74 %

Waste composition


(0%);


(43%) %

Results:




reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 581.72 390.19 191.54

2030 648.59 319.81 328.78



Percentage of generated waste by rural population collected.

Percentage of generated waste by rural population treated in open burning waste

locations.

Percentage of generated waste by rural population treated in landfills.


the reduction of open burning will be the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of




4.2. Improved wastewater management practices


Description of the action: In line with national efforts to improve wastewater

management practices, this mitigation option assumes that the wastewater generation of

all population is discharged and treated in advanced wastewater treatment plants

Assumptions: The mitigation actions W2, W3, W4 and W5 address a change in

practices in wastewater treatment. Following the same methodology, this mitigation

action estimates the impact of the improvement of wastewater systems for all population.

The same methodology of the WoM (tier 1 IPCC 2006) is applied for the reference

scenario

For the reduction scenario, we assumed the treatment type "Centralized, aerobic

treatment plant ". For the urban areas, we chose the option "Not well managed.

Overloaded". For rural areas, we selected the option "well managed" from Table 6.3 of

IPCC 2006.

As the EF for well managed aerobic plants is zero in 2006 IPCC Guidelines, we assumed

the alternative for rural areas have certain level of emissions, represented in an emission

factor slightly higher than zero


up to 2030.

Table 166. Reference scenario


Type of population affected Urban and rural -

Type of treatment or

discharge pathway

Septic tank, sewer and latrines, at

different % in urban and rural areas -

Population affected

Total population (except population

covered in actions W2, W3, W4 and

W5) Population


kg

BOD/capita/year

Emission factor Septic tank 0.3 kg CH4/kg BOD

Degree of utilisation septic tank in urban

areas 10% Percentage

Degree of utilisation septic tank in rural

areas 30% Percentage

Emission factor Sewer 0.15 kg CH4/kg BOD

Degree of utilisation Sewer in urban areas 90% Percentage

Degree of utilisation Sewer in rural areas 60% Percentage

Emission factor latrines 0.06 kg CH4/kg BOD



Degree of utilisation latrines in urban

areas 0 Percentage

Degree of utilisation latrines in rural areas 10% Percentage

Table 167. Reduction scenario



Type of treatment or

discharge pathway Centralized, aerobic treatment plant -

Population affected

Total population (except population

covered in actions W2, W3, W4 and

W5) Population


kg

BOD/capita/year

Emission factor urban areas 0 kg CH4/kg BOD

Emission factor rural areas 0.18 kg CH4/kg BOD

Degree of utilisation 100% Percentage

Results:



reference option

Emissions in the

reduction option


action

2016 NA NA NA

2020 NA NA NA

2025 659.40 484.82 174.58

2030 733.29 539.53 193.76



Percentage of wastewater of all population treated by "Centralized, aerobic

treatment plant".

Percentage of wastewater of rural population treated "Not well managed.

Overloaded".

Percentage of wastewater of urban population treated "Well managed".


the wastewater management will be the Ministry Energy and Water Resources of the




Section 8- With Existing Measures

Scenario

The With Existing Measures (WeM) scenario is calculated from the WoM scenario by

subtracting the estimated mitigation impact of the actions under implementation since

2015. This includes mitigation actions that were adopted after 2015 but their

implementation is not yet finalized. Detailed information about these actions and their

mitigation impact is provided under section 5 of this report.

The WeM scenario can be seen as Business as Usual Scenario, representing a forecast

which assumes no further changes in the current circumstances. Under this scenario,

Tajikistan would not take additional climate change actions in the future. However, the

future mitigation impact of the mitigation actions which have been implemented or are

under implementation since 2015 are taken into account.

The following figure shows the WeM scenario compared to the WoM scenario, noting

that the differences between scenarios are only due to the impact of the mentioned

mitigation actions.

Figure 4. GHG emission projections in the WeM and WoM scenarios (Gg CO2-eq)

As illustrated in the previous figure, the mitigation impact of the policies under

implementation after 2015 in the country does not produce a significant change in the

GHG emission pathway of the country. With the current mitigation actions, Tajikistan will

not meet its conditional NDC target, which is defined as 65-75% reduction in the GHG

emissions levels of 1990 by 2030.







Streamlining climate change in the existent policy instruments should be a priority to

achieve a low carbon development pathway in Tajikistan.


Section 9 - With Additional Measures

Scenario

The With Additional Measures (WaM) scenario is calculated from the WeM scenario by

subtracting the estimated mitigation impact of additional actions planned to be

implemented in the country (described in section 6) as well as the impact of the most

significant mitigation options identified by the working team (described in section 7).

The WaM scenario represent a GHG emission profile for the country in which all actions

planned to be implemented in the future are undertaken, and all the key mitigation

possibilities for the country are also implemented. This scenario could be seen as the

GHG emissions profile that the country could achieve if appropriate national and

international resources are mobilized.

The conditional NDC target is by far achieved under this scenario, as shown in the

following figure.

Figure 5. GHG emissions in the WaM scenario (Gg CO2-eq)

Analysis of the future GHG emission profile

and mitigation options available

In the energy sector, the greatest mitigation potential is found in the energy industries

and in the residential, commercial and institutional sectors, the areas producing the

largest GHG emissions in both the historical and projected (i.e. in the WoM) periods

within this sector.


In energy industries, the high levels of installed hydroelectric capacity limits the current

GHG emissions of the electricity sector. Future GHG emissions in energy industries

depend on the finalization of the Rogun Hydropower plant. This power plant will



Conversely, if this plant is not finally commissioned, additional fossil generation capacity

will be needed to avoid shortages in the winter period. This will also involve significantly

higher GHG emissions in the energy sector (as represented in the WoM scenario).

Notwithstanding the foregoing, the greatest mitigation opportunity identified for the

energy sector is in the residential, commercial, and institutional sector. The use of coal

(anthracite) in these sectors is one of the biggest emission sources of the inventory. The

replacement of boilers, kitchens and stoves using coal for equivalent electric appliances

will significantly reduce the emissions of these emission sources. Complementarily,

energy efficiency measures to reduce energy consumption could be also considered to

reduce the contribution of these sector to national GHG emissions.

Aluminium production is one of the key industries operating in Tajikistan and is highly

energy intensive. The reduction of the energy intensity in the production of aluminum

through the incentive of secondary aluminum production practices is another possibility

to reduce the GHG emissions of the energy sector significantly. The promotion of Best

Available Techniques27 in the industry will reduce the energy consumption requirements

of the industry, limiting its GHG emissions. Tajikistan should consider addressing this

issue in the framework of its Strategy for the development of industry in the Republic of

Tajikistan, by including specific actions for future implementation.

The transport sector has a limited contribution to energy sector GHG emissions.

However, the transport sector is an essential sector for the development of the country,

and it should be considered in the core of the mitigation strategy of the country.

Continuing the renovation of the public transport infrastructure and providing incentives

to stimulate its use should be a priority for the climate change action of the country in the

future.

Industrial processes and product use emissions (IPPU) are dominated by the

contribution of the cement industry, in which the recent commissioning of cement plants

sharply increased its emissions. Measures to promote the reduction of the clinker content

of cement will reduce largely the emissions of the IPPU sector and have been identified

as a key mitigation potential alternative for the country.

Additionally, the refrigeration and air conditioning market of Tajikistan is increasingly

using F-gases to replace CFC and HCFC. These gases have a very high global warming

potential, affecting the GHG emission profile of the country. The future replacement of

27 https://eippcb.jrc.ec.europa.eu/reference

https://eippcb.jrc.ec.europa.eu/reference


F-gases for climate friendly alternatives will also have a representative mitigation

potential.

In the waste sector, Tajikistan is making substantial efforts to improve its solid waste and

wastewater management practices, in line with the national policy framework. The

expansion of the solid waste management practices and the reduction of open burning

of wastes in the rural areas is identified as a key opportunity for reducing GHG emissions

with outstanding co-benefits in terms of health and air quality. Furthermore, continuing

with the renovation of wastewater treatment plants have been also identified as a

relevant mitigation opportunity for the country.


Section 10 – Summary of results

The following figure illustrate the GHG emission projections of Tajikistan up to 2030

under the WoM, WeM and WaM scenarios. These GHG emission projections are in line

with the macroeconomic framework projected in the National Development Strategy to

2030 for the industrial scenario28.

Figure 6. GHG emission projections by scenario and NDC targets of Tajikistan

(Gg CO2-eq)

The GHG emissions of the WoM will growth an average of 3.3 per cent by year in the

period 2016-2030, compared to the 6 per cent annual growth of GDP and the 2.1 per

cent annual growth of population. The projection of the WoM has been developed at

category level, considering the different determinant of each emission source.

The GHG emission projections estimated in the WoM are below the unconditional

mitigation target set in the NDC for 2030, without considering the impact of any mitigation

action. The unconditional NDC objective is defined as 80-90% of the 1990 emission

levels, i.e. 20,400 Gg emissions of CO2-eq for year 2020.

28 Three scenarios are considered in the National Development Strategy, an inertial scenario, an industrial scenario and an innovative scenario. The inertial scenario is not relevant for this type of exercise. The innovative scenario assumes a structural change in the economy which is not feasible with the existent policy framework. The industrial scenario assumes that the economy reduces the weight of agriculture, shifting to a more industrial intensive economy. This is in line with national policies and programmes, such as the “Strategy for the development of industry in the Republic of Tajikistan”. For this reason, the industrial scenario has been chosen as a core for this GHG emissions projections.


However, WoM emissions are above the conditional mitigation target defined in the NDC,

which is defined as a 65-75% of the 1990 level by 2030, ie. 16,575 Gg emissions of CO2-

eq for the lower range.

The absolute levels for the NDC targets mentioned in the previous paragraph are

calculations which considered that the emissions of year 1990 were 25,500 Gg CO2-eq

. Nevertheless, the GHG emissions of year 1990 have not been re-calculated with the

methodology used in this exercise, so the absolute value for the NDC target can only be

seen as an approximate value. For this reason, it would be recommendable that

Tajikistan either recalculates its 1990 emissions or sets a new NDC target using a more

recent year (for instance, 2010 or 2015).

Considering the effect of the main projects and programmes implemented or adopted in

the country, Tajikistan will not meet its conditional NDC target, as these mitigation actions

have a limited mitigation impact in terms of GHG emissions. The mitigation actions which

showed higher mitigation impact in the country are the following:

Horticulture and Grapevine Development Program. The estimated mitigation impact

for this action in 2030 is 122 Gg CO2-eq.

Second public employment for sustainable agriculture and water resources

management project. The estimated mitigation impact for this action in 2030 is 92

Gg CO2-eq.

Climate Adaptation through Sustainable Forestry in Important River Catchment

Areas in Tajikistan (CAFT). The estimated mitigation impact for this action in 2030

is 90 Gg CO2-eq.

The aggregated impact of all implemented or adopted actions is 507 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.

The impact of these actions is shown in the WeM scenario.

Given the modest mitigation impact of these actions, Tajikistan will require to implement

additional mitigation actions for achieving its conditional NDC target.

Tajikistan is already making efforts to further reduce its GHG emissions in the future and

is planning the future implementation of substantial mitigation initiatives. This is the case

of the Forest Sector Development Strategy, which is not yet adopted, but has an

estimated mitigation impact of 353 Gg CO2-eq by 2030. This is also the case for the

commissioning of the Rogun Hydroelectricity power plant, which is undergoing and is

expected to finalised by 2026. The effect of this strategy and the commissioning of the

Rogun Hydroelectricity power plant are included in the WaM scenario, together with

additional mitigation actions with potential to reduce GHG emission which have been

identified in the framework of this project.


Section 11 – Sensitivity of the estimates

This section includes an assessment of the sensitivity of the estimates related to the

possible development pathways which can occur in the country, specifically related to

the different trends of GDP and population growth, which are the key proxies defining

the national macro and socioeconomic framework of the country.

Different scenarios were defined for the analysis of the sensitiveness of results, as shown

in the following table.

Table 169. Sensitivity scenarios

Sensitivity scenario Average annual

GDP Growth

Average annual

population Growth

Sensitivity scenario 1 6-7% 2.1%

Sensitivity Scenario 2 5% 2.1%

Sensitivity Scenario 3 2% 0.5%

The scenario 1 was chosen as the central scenario for projections, as it is in line with

the National Development Strategy. The other two scenarios represent alternative

macro and socio-economic frameworks which could be feasible in view of the current

international framework.

The results of the differences GHG emission pathways differ significatively, especially

in sensitivity scenario 3. The differences obtained in the central scenario of projections

i.e. the WeM scenario, are illustrated in the following figure:


Figure 7. WeM emissions in different sensitivity scenarios (Gg CO2-eq)

Figure 8. Results obtained in sensitivity scenario 1 (Gg CO2-eq)




As shown in previous figures, the main conclusion derived from the sensitivity analysis

is that in sensitivity scenario 2 and 3, under lower prospects of economic and population

growth, Tajikistan would achieve both its conditional and non-conditional NDC targets

without additional efforts.

This analysis also indicated that Tajikistan has room to increase its mitigation ambition

under different circumstances, providing a useful insight for the revision of the NDC.


Section 12 - Conclusions

This project involved the estimation of impact of all mitigation actions implemented and

planned in Tajikistan and has identified and approximated the GHG emission reduction

impact of additional mitigation options for the country. Different scenarios have been

estimated illustrating the possible mitigation pathways of Tajikistan.

The results of this exercise show that Tajikistan needs to implement additional mitigation

actions for meeting its conditional NDC target, set at 65% of 1990 GHG emission levels

by year 2030. The impact of the actions under implementation since 2015 is thus not

sufficient to achieve the conditional NDC target. As shown in the sensitivity analysis,

under lower prospects of economic and population growth, Tajikistan would achieve both

its conditional and non-conditional NDC targets without additional efforts.

The assessment of progress towards the achievement of the NDC targets made in this

report can only be seen as an approximation, as these targets refer to the GHG

emissions of year 1990, which were calculated following a different methodology (IPCC

Good Practice guidelines were used) than the one used in the latest GHG emission

inventory and also this exercise, so the differences between reference year emissions

(i.e. 1990), emissions of year 2016 and year 2030 are partially explained by the different

methodologies used. For this reason, it would be recommendable to either

recalculating the GHG emissions of year 1990 using consistently 2006 IPCC

Guidelines or updating the NDC target using the results of this exercise, i.e. the

GHG emissions of the period 2004-2030 which are calculated using the same

methodology.






Streamlining climate change in the existent policy instruments and including

specific a roadmap of specific mitigation actions should be a priority to achieve a

low carbon development pathway in Tajikistan.

The GHG emissions and mitigation profile of Tajikistan are strongly driven by the

contribution of the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sector, with over 40% of

national total emissions attributable to this sector in the historical and projected period in

both the WoM and the WeM scenarios. Given its impact in national total GHG emissions

and its prospects, the AFOLU sector should be prioritized within the mitigation

efforts of the country. In particular, the implementation of the Forest Sector

Development Strategy for 2016-2030 and the continuation of the Comprehensive

livestock development program, Pasture Development Programme after 2020 and

Development Program for Seed Production of the Republic of Tajikistan, are key for the

low carbon development of the country.


Apart from the AFOLU sector, the future GHG emission profile of Tajikistan is highly

dependent on the finalization of the Rogun Hydropower plant. This power plant will



The mitigation options with the greatest potential to reduce future GHG emissions

have been identified under this assignment, and include:

Replacement of anthracite consumption by electricity in the residential,

commercial and institutional sectors. This action has the higher estimated

mitigation potential, with 1,929 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.

Incentivise the reduction of the clinker content of the cement produced in the

country. The reduction of clinker production in national cement production plants

has an estimated mitigation potential of 510 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.

Improving solid waste management practices. In line with national efforts to

improve solid waste practices, the waste management system could be extended

to rural areas, reducing the GHG emissions that occur in the open burning of

waste. This mitigation action has an estimated mitigation potential of 328 Gg

CO2-eq by 2030.

Enhancing removals by creating new fruit orchards and vineyards in addition to

those referred in the "Horticulture and Viticulture Development Program in the

Republic of Tajikistan for 2016 – 2020". This mitigation action has an estimated

mitigation potential of 125 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.

Agroforestry and / or silvo-pastoral systems. This mitigation option is associated

to the improving agroforestry and/or silvo-pastoral systems by planting shrubs

and trees in pastures and agricultural land. This mitigation action has an

estimated mitigation potential of 125 Gg CO2-eq by 2030.

The implementation of the forestry Sector Development Strategy for 2016-2030, the

continuation of the key programmes in the AFOLU sector, the finalization of the Rogun

Hydropower plant and the implementation of the key mitigation options identified will

allow Tajikistan to reduce its GHG emissions well below its conditional NDC target,

contributing to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreements and the United Nations

Convention of Climate Change.

Projections of GHG emissions to 2030 in Tajikistan

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