Pre poll analysis of youth’s perception in Tamil Nadu

A Dissertation submitted to the Madurai Kamaraj University in

partial fulfilment of the requirement for the award of the

Degree of

MASTER OF COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM

By

M.SURESH

Reg.No: B207008

Under the guidance of

Mr.M.SATHISH KUMAR

DEPARTMENT OF JOURNALISM & SCIENCE COMMUINCATION

MDURAI KAMARAJ UNIVERSITY

MADURAI – 625021

MAY – 2014.

Mr.M.SATHISHKUMANR, MA.,

Guest Lecturer

Department of Journalism & Science Communication

Madurai Kamaraj University

Madurai-625021.

CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the dissertation, entitled ‘Pre poll

analysis of youth’s perception in Tamil Nadu’ submitted to the

Madurai Kamaraj University, in partial fulfilment of the

requirement for the award of the degree of Master of

Communication & Journalism is record of original research work

done by M.SURESH (Reg.No. B207008) regular student of M.Sc., in

the Department of Journalism & Science Communication, Madurai

Kamaraj University, Madurai, during the year 2011-2012. This

dissertation is his original work and it has not previously

formed the basis for the award of any Degree, Diploma, and

Associate ship, Fellowship or other similar titles to any

candidate of any University.

Countersigned

Signature of the Guide

Assistant Prof & Head i/c

(Mr.M.Sathishkumar)

M.SURESH, II year

Department of Journalism & Science Communication,

Madurai Kamaraj University,

Madurai -625 021.

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---------------------------------

DECLARATION

I, M.SURESH hereby declare that the dissertation entitled, Pre

poll analysis of youth’s perception in Tamil Nadu Submitted to

the Madurai Kamraj University, in partial fulfillment of the

requirements for the award of the degree of Master of

Communication & Journalism is a record of original research work

done by me during 2012-2014 under the supervision and guidance

of Mr.M.SATHISHKUMAR, Department of Journalism & Science

Communication, Madurai Kamaraj University, Madurai and it has not

previously formed the basis for the award of any Degree/ Diploma/

Associate/ Fellowship or other similar title of and University.

Place: Madurai Signature of the candidate

Date: ( M.SURESH)

Acknowledgement

The investigator expresses his profound gratitude to

Dr.J.BALASUBRAMANIAM, Assistant Professor & Head, Department of

Journalism & Science Communication, Madurai Kamaraj University,

Madurai, for valuable advice, for having given permission to take

up this study, guidance and all sort of immense help for the

successful completion of the study. His continuous encouragement

and constructive discussions enlightened me and this thesis a

reality.

The investigator expresses his deep sense of gratefully

acknowledges Mr.S.RAJESH KUMAR, Assistant Professor, Department

of Journalism & Science Communication, Madurai Kamaraj

University, Madurai, for valuable suggestions and for the

successful completion of this study.

The investigator expresses his deep sense of gratitude to

Mr.M.SATHISH KUMAR Department of Journalism & Science

Communication, Madurai Kamaraj University, Madurai, for valuable

suggestions and for the successful completion of this study.

The investigator is thankful to DR.V.RATNA MALA , Assistant

Professor, Department of Mass Communication, Mizoram University

who has helped me to complete this Dissertation. The investigator

expresses his sincere thanks to all his friends who have

contributed the necessary aids to this dissertation successfully.

(M.SURESH)

CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDEGEMENT

LIST OF CHAPTERS

CHAPTER I INTRODUCATION

CHAPTER II REVIEW OF LITERATURE

CHAPTER III METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER IV DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

CHAPTER I

Introduction

The purpose of this study is to find out the perception of

Post graduate students of Madurai Kamaraj University on 2014- Lok

sabha Elections.

Election Commission data show that 2.3 crore people in the

18-19 age bracket have been enrolled to vote out of total

electorate of 81.5 crore. This Lok Sabha election is likely to

reflect the peak of India’s electoral demographic dividend with

10% of voter likely to be first time voters, a combination of

electoral and demographic data shows. As fertility beings to

decline faster in the south than in the north this election may

mark the highest ever political impact of first time voters.

Summary revision data released by the Election Commission on

Thursday shows that 2.3 crore 18-19 year-old have been enrolled

to vote, out of a total electorate of 81.5 crore voters.

Additionally, The Hindu’s analysis of census data shows that

there were 12 crore people aged 15-19 at the time of the 2011

census, making them people who were too young to voters formed 10

per cent of the population. This youth bulge might reflect the

peak of India’s demographic dividend as fertility declines and

India’s population begins to age.

In 2001, people aged 15-19 were, in comparison, 9.7 per cent of

the population. The United Nations’ Department of Economic and

Social Affairs’ latest World Population Prospects shows that

India’s 15-19 aged cohort will peak in 2015 after which it will

being to decline as a proportion of the population. The southern

States reached replacement levels of fertility by 1995, but the

northern States still have relatively high fertility. So the peak

of the 15-19 age cohort will have already passed in the southern

States, but in the northern states, this cohort could be at its

peak, Dr.P.Arokiasamy, demographer and professor in the

department of development Studies at the Mumbai-based

International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) told the

Hindu.

The Election commission’s data show that the proportion of 18-19

year-olds registered to vote is the the highest in Jharkhand

(9per cent of total electors), Chhattisgarh (4.9 per cent) and

Rajasthan (4.8 per cent) and the lowest in Himachal Pradesh (1.8

per cent).

This proportion is higher than the difference in vote share

between the party that polled the highest seats and the runner-

up in some states including Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh.

Historically, voter turnout among young voter has been

substantially lower than the average turnout. Since 1996, we have

seen that voter turnout among young voter is 5-6 percentage

points lower than the average turnout, Sanjay Kumar, director at

the centre for the Study of Development Societies who leads its

National Election Studies, told The Hindu. Moreover, young voters

have tended to remain as divided among different political

parties as other voters, and without a cohort-specific issue that

animates them. Our study at the time of the last Assembly

election showed a clear preference among young voters for the Aam

Aadmi Party in Delhi and a slight tilt towards the BJP in other

States, Mr. Kumar said. In their January national poll the shift

towards the BJP was even more pronounced and included a surge

among rural voters, while the BJP had traditionally been

relatively popular among urban young voters, Mr. Kumar said.

What does the United Nations mean by ‘youth’? The United

Nations, for statistical purposes, defines ‘youth’, as those

persons between the ages of 15 and 24 years, without prejudice to

other definitions by Member States. The Secretary-General first

referred to the current definition of youth in 1981 in his report

to the General Assembly on International Youth Year (A/36/215,

para. 8 of the annex) and endorsed it in ensuing reports

(A/40/256, para. 19 of the annex). However, in both the reports,

the Secretary-General also recognized that, apart from that

statistical definition, the meaning of the term ‘youth’ varies in

different societies around the world. When the General Assembly,

by its resolution 50/81 in 1995, adopted the World Programme of

Action for Youth to the Year 2000 and beyond, it reiterated that

the United Nations defined youth as the age cohort of 15-24. The

General “In 1995, the world youth population - defined by the

United Nations as the age cohort 15-24 - is estimated to be 1.03

billion, or 18 per cent of the total world population.”

Definition of youth perhaps changes with circumstances,

especially with the changes in demographic, financial, economic

and socio-cultural settings; however, the definition that uses

15-24 age cohort as youth fairly serves its statistical purposes

for assessing the needs of the young people and providing

guidelines for youth development.

An election is a  formal decision-making process by which a

population chooses an individual to hold elected status (public

office). Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern

representative democracy has operated since the 17th century. 

Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in

the executive and judiciary, and for regional and local

government. This process is also used in many other private and

business organizations, from clubs to voluntary associations and

corporations. Electronic ballots are used in Brazilian

elections. The universal use of elections as a tool for selecting

representatives in modern democracies is in contrast with the

practice in the democratic archetype, ancient Athens. As the

Elections were considered an oligarchic institution and most

political offices were filled using siltations, also known as

allotment, by which officeholders were chosen by lot.

Electoral reform describes the process of introducing fair

electoral systems where they are not in place, or improving the

fairness or effectiveness of existing systems. Psephogogy is the

study of results and other statistic relating to elections

(especially with a view to predicting future results).

To elect means "to choose or make a decision" and so sometimes

other forms of ballot such as referendums are referred to as

elections, especially in the United States.

India has an asymmetric federal government, with elected

officials at the federal, state and local levels. At the national

level, the head of the government, Prime minister, is elected by

the members of Lok Sabha, lower house of the parliament of

India. All members of Lok Sabha except two, who can be nominated

by president of India, are directly elected through general

elections which take place every five years, in normal

circumstances, by universal adult suffrage. Members of Rajya

Sabha, upper house of Indian parliament, are elected by elected

members of the legislative assemblies of states and Electoral

College for Union Territories of India.

In 2009, the elections involved an electorate of 714

million (larger than both EU and US elections combined). In 2014,

the Electoral Strength of India increased to 814.5

Million. Declared expenditure has trebled since 1989 to almost

$300 million, using more than one million electronic voting

machines.

The size of the huge electorate mandates that elections be

conducted in a number of phases (there were four phases in 2004

General Election and five phases in 2009General Elections). It

involves a number of step-by-step processes from announcement of

election dates by the Election Commission of India, which

brings into force the 'model code of conduct' for the political

parties, to the announcement of results and submission of the

list of successful candidates to the executive head of the state

or the centre. The submission of results marks the end of the

election process, thereby paving way for the formation of the new

government.

The general election was held in nine phases from 7 April to 12

May 2014 to constitute the 16th Lok Sabha  in India. Voting will

take place in all 543parliament constituencies of India to elect

Members of Parliament in the Lok Sabha.

The result of this election will be declared on 16 May 2014, well

before the current 15th Lok Sabha completes its constitutional

term on 31 May 2014.

With an electorate of 814.5 million (larger than the electorate

of the European Union and United States combined), this election

will be the largest democratic election in the world to date.

This also will be the longest and the costliest general election

in the history of the country, The Election Commission has

estimated that the 2014 Lok Sabha elections will cost the

exchequer Rs 3,500 crore. This figure does not include the

expenses incurred for security and the amount political parties

will spend.

Aims and Objectives

To find out the youth’s perception of voting

To do a pre poll analysis of youth’s perception in Tamil Nadu

To study the youth’s perception of leadership

Hypothesis

We assume that the post graduate student vote for 49-O

We assume that the post graduate students dislike the government

freebies

CHAPTER II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

The Lok Sabha (Hinidi: ललल ललल) or House of the People is the

lower house of the Parliament of India. Parliament of India

consists of two houses: The Lok Sabha or House of the people and

the Rajya Sabha (Hindi: ललललल ललल) or Council of

States. Lok means "people" and Sabha means "assembly" in Sanskrit.

The Lok Sabha meets in the Lok Sabha Chambers, Sansad

Bhavan, Sansad Marg, and New Delhi.

Lok Sabha is composed of representatives of the people chosen by

direct election on the basis of adult suffrage. The maximum

strength of the House envisaged by the Constitution of the India

is 552, which is made up by election of up to 530 members to

represent the States, up to 20 members to represent the Union

Territories and not more than two members of the Anglo-Indian

Community to be nominated by the President of India, if, in

his/her opinion, that community is not adequately represented in

the House. The total elective membership is distributed among the

States in such a way that the ratio between the number of seats

allotted to each State and the population of the State is, so far

as practicable, the same for all States.

Lok Sabha, unless sooner dissolved, continues for five years from

the date appointed for its first meeting and the expiration of

the period of five years operates as dissolution of the House.

However, while a proclamation of emergency is in operation, this

period may be extended by Parliament by law for a period not

exceeding one year at a time and not extending, in any case,

beyond a period of six months after the proclamation has ceased

to operate. An exercise to redraw Lok Sabha constituencies'

boundaries has been carried out by the Delimitation Commission

based on the Indian census of 2001. This exercise, which was

supposed to be carried out after every census, was suspended in

1976 following a constitutional amendment to avoid adverse

effects of the family planning program which was being

implemented. The 15th Lok Sabha was formed in May 2009 and is the

latest to date.

 Rajya Sabha (RS) or Council of States is the upper house of the

Parliament of India. Rajya means "state" and Sabha means

"assembly" in Sanskrit. Membership is limited to 250 members, 12

of whom are nominated by the President of India for their

contributions to art, literature, science, and social services.

The remainder of body is elected by the state and

territorial legislatures. Members sit for six-year terms, with

one third of the members retiring every two years.

The Rajya Sabha meets in continuous sessions and, unlike the

LokSabha, the lower house of Parliament, is not subject to

dissolution. The Rajya Sabha has equal footing in all areas of

legislation with Lok Sabha, except in the area of supply, where

the Lok Sabha has overriding powers. In the case of conflicting

legislation, a joint sitting of the two houses is held. However,

since the Lok Sabha has twice as many members as the Rajya Sabha,

the former would normally hold the greater power. Only three such

joint-sessions have been held; the latest one for the passage of

the2002 Prevention of Terrorism Act.

The Chairman of the Rajya Sabha (currently, Hamid Ansari) is

the Vice President of India, who presides over its sessions. The

Deputy Chairman, who is elected from amongst the RS's members,

takes care of the day-to-day matters of the house in the absence

of the Chairman. The Rajya Sabha held its first sitting on 13 May

1952. The salary and other benefits for a member of Rajya Sabha

are same as for a member of Lok Sabha.

Rule 49-O was a rule in The Conduct of Elections Rules, 1961 of

India, which governs election in the country. It described the

procedure to be followed when a valid voter decides not to cast

his vote, and decides to record this fact. The rule was declared

by the Supreme Court in September 2013 to be incompatible with

the constitution and the Election Commission of India announced

that the option under this rule would not be available any

more. The apparent purpose of this section was to maintain a

proper record in order to prevent the election fraud or the

misuse of votes.

NONE OF THE ABOVE (NOTA) OPTION IN EVMs

In its judgement dated 27th September, 2013 in Writ Petition

(C) No. 161 of 2004, the Supreme Court has directed that there

should be a “None of the Above” (NOTA) option on the ballot

papers and EVMs and that the same should be 8 implemented ‘either

in a phased manner or at a time with the assistance of Government

of India’. For implementing the NOTA option, the Commission has

issued detailed instructions to the Chief Electoral Officers of

all States/ UTs.

On the BUs, below the name of the last candidate, there will now

be a button for NOTA option so that electors who do not want to

vote for any of the candidates can exercise their option by

pressing the button against NOTA.

The Commission is taking steps to bring this option to the

knowledge of voters and all other stakeholders and to train all

field level officials including the polling personnel about the

NOTA option.

Reynolds and Reilly explain that preferential voting denotes

“electoral systems in which voters can rank-order candidates on

the ballot paper in order of their choice. The Alternative Vote,

the Single Transferable Vote, and the system used to elect the

Sri Lankan president are all examples of preferential voting.”

Many other researchers of the voting

systems in the Pacific area have used this definition

Vote means a formal indication of a choice between two or more

candidate or courses of action, expressed typically through a

ballot or a show of hands an act of voting. The right to indicate

a choice in an election.

Operational definition of Youth: Youth is the time of life when

one is young, but often means the time between childhood and

adulthood (maturity). Definitions of the specific age range that

constitutes youth vary. An individual's actual maturity may not

correspond to their chronological age, as immature individuals

can exist at all ages. Youth is also defined as "the appearance,

freshness, vigour, spirit, etc., characteristic of one who is

young". YOUTH is best understood as a period of transition from

the dependence of childhood to adulthood’s independence. That’s

why, as a category, youth is more fluid than other fixed age-

groups. Yet, age is the easiest way to define this group,

particularly in relation to education and employment, because

‘youth’ is often referred to a person between the ages of leaving

compulsory education, and finding their first job.

POLLING STATIONS

Presently there are approximately 9,30,000 Polling

Stations in the country, as compared to 8,30,866 Polling Stations

set up during Lok Sabha election, 2009. This marks an increase

of nearly 11.9 percent Polling Stations. This increase is largely

due to rationalization of Polling Stations, which the Commission

undertook in the recent years.

ELECTRONIC VOTING MACHINES (EVM)

The Commission has decided to use Electronic Voting

Machines in all the polling stations of the country as was done

in Lok Sabha Elections in 2004 and 2009. There are 14,68,430

Control Units and 14,95,430 Ballot Units available in the

country. Apart from this, manufacturers have been asked to

manufacture and supply 2,51,650 Control Units and 3,82,876 Ballot

Units, which are expected to be received by 31st March, 2014.

With this, the country will have 17,20,080 Control Units and

18,78,306 Ballot Units. First Level Checking (FLC) of the

available EVMs has been started in all the States/ UTs and has

been completed in many places.

Commission has put in place several administrative safeguards

for EVMs. These include, sealing of CU and BU with Pink Paper

seals specially manufactured by Security Printing Press, Nasik;

two stage randomization; mock poll by casting 1000 votes in at

least 5% EVMs both during FLC and preparation of EVMs during

candidate set operation, taking a sequential print of the 1000

votes cast during the mock poll at the preparation stage and

showing it to representatives of political parties and

candidates; mock poll by casting at least 50 votes on poll day,

multiple thread seals on the EVM and green paper seal on the

result section of the CU after mock poll. All of this is done in

the presence of political party representatives and candidates,

and their signatures are obtained on the seals and in the

registers kept for this purpose. Polled EVMs are transported

under armed escort and stored in strong rooms with a double lock

system and guarded 24x7 by armed police. There is CCTV coverage

of strong rooms and political parties and candidates are also

allowed to keep a watch on them, round the clock.

CHAPTER III

Methodology

Research Method

Quantitative research method was utilized in this study. A pre

poll survey was done among the youth.

Sampling design

A multi stage sampling was employed in this study. First among

the various age clusters, youth group was selected. Again the

youths were also selected from Madurai kamaraj University.

Madurai Kamaraj University is one of the important education

institutions in southern district. There are 74 departments in

regular. Total students strength is 2458 with scholars at

present.

Sample size

A purposive sample of 120 respondents across Humanities and

Science departments were chosen as the sample care was taken to

include boys and girls in both departments.

Tool for Data Collection

Questionnaire is the tool selected by the research for collecting

data from the chosen sample. A simple but a clearly presented

questionnaire with questions was used as a tool. No open ended

question was included.

The researcher prepared a questionnaire and data was collected to

make the process.

Processing of data

The data collected through the questionnaire were

checked and edited. The missions and commission were rectified.

The computer was used for preparing the master table and sub-

tables SPSS was also used in applying statistical tools to the

tabulated data.

The researcher has used the following statistical tools for

analyzing the data procured from the respondents.

1. Percentages Analysis

2. Multi –random sampling

Art - 60 Science -60

English-20, Tamil-

20, Economics -20.

Maths-20, Physic-

20,

Bio-teah-20.

Ist and IInd

Engilsh-M-10 and F-

10

Ist and IInd Maths-

M-10 and F-10

Ist and IInd Tamil-

M-10 and F-10

Ist and IInd

Physic-M-10 and F-

10

Ist and IInd

Eonomics-M-10 and

F-10

Ist and IInd Bio

teac-M-10 and F-10

CHAPTER III

Data analysis

1. Youth with voter ID

Si. No Have voter ID Frequency Percent

1 Yes 117 97.5

2 No 3 2.5

Total 120 100.0

From this table it has been inferred that majority of the

respondents having voter ID respondents (97.5per cent) and only

3% don’t have their voter ID.

Figure:1

2. Kinds of Voter

Si. Kind of Voter Frequency Percent

No

1 Ist time voter 29 24.1

2 IInd time voter 35 29.2

3 III Time voter 56 46.7

Total 120 100.0

From this table it has been inferred that majority of the

respondents 3rd time voter 56 respondents (46.7per cent) voting

in this Lok sabha election. 2nd voter 35 (29.2per cent)

respondents polling this Lok sabha election. The New voter 27

(22.5 per cent ) respondents there were voting fist time voting.

Very low level of the respondent 2 (1.7 per cent) without voter

Id. Figure:2

3.Youth’s Reason for voting

Si. No Reason Frequency Percent

1 Development of

the society

71 59.2

2 Equality 19 15.8

3 Changing their

Economical states

22 18.3

4 Any other idea 8 6.7

Total 120 100

The above table shows that Reason for my voting total

respondents are 120 members. Totally reason for my voting

majority of reasons for Development of our society 71

respondents (59.2 per cent ) and Equality reasons for 19

respondents in (15.8 per cent) and next changing our Economical

states reason for 22 respondents in (18.3 per cent). They

lowest reasons for any other idea 8 respondents (6.7 per cent)

in the research study. Figure:3

4.Best period in congress

Si. No Frequency Percent

1 Previous One

(2004-2009)

25 20.8

2 Present (2009-

2014)

8 6.7

3 Both are best 12 10.0

4 Both are bad 75 62.5

Total 120 100.0

The above table shows that Best period in Congress

party. 62.5 per cent of respondents felt that both terms of

Congress were bad. Only 10 per cent respondents said that

both terms of Congress are best. 20.8% respondents only felt

that 2004-2009 term of Congress was good.

Figure:4

5.Youth’s Party preference for voting

Si. No Frequency Percent

1 Congress 10 8.3

2 BJP 71 59.2

3 AIADMK 13 10.8

4 DMK 12 10.0

5 AAP 11 9.2

6 49-O 3 2.5

Total 120 100.0

The above table shows the voting choice of youth. 59.2 %

choice was BJP. The youth’s choice of AIADMK & DMK is only

10.8% & 10% respectively.

Figure:5

6. Awareness of 49-O (NOTA- None of the above)

option

Si. No Frequency Percent

1 Yes 75 63.8

2 No 45 36.2

Total 120 100.0

The above table shows that the PG students were aware of 49-O

NOTA. 63.8% knows about 49-0. 36.2 % only don’t know about 49-0

option.

Figure:6

7. Opinion on

Freebies

Si. No Frequency Percent

1 Yes 42 35.0

2 No 78 65.0

Total 120 100.0

The above table shows that PG students were not welcoming

freebies from political parties . 78 65% students do not like

freebies. Only 35% likes to get freebies from the political

parties.

Figure:7

8.Youth’s choice of Prime Ministerial Candidate

Si. No Candidate Frequency Percent

1 Rahul Gandhi 14 11.7

2 Narendra Modi 63 52.5

3 Jayalitha 11 9.2

4 Aravind kejrival 32 26.7

Total 120 100.0

The above table shows that 52% of

PG students prefer Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. Next to

Modi, the 26% youth prefer Aravind Kejrival as Prime Minister.

Figure:8

9. Youth’s

perception on Media support

Si. No Frequency Percent

1 Rahul Gandhi 12 10.0

2 Naranda Mody 77 64.2

3 Jayalalitha 8 6.7

4 Aravith Kejirival 23 19.1

Total 120 100.0

The above table shows that 64.2% students opine that the

media supports Narendra Modi. 19% students believe that media

supports Aravind Kejrival.

Figure:9

Findings of the Study

Majority of the respondents having voter ID card and the

Students are aware of their right to vote in

this Lok sabha election.