Urban Landuse, Infrastructures, Amenities, etc…

Urban Planning

Population

Introduction: Population projections are the fundamental criteria of planning activities such producing land use, transportation , housing, environmental and facilities plan of future. (Wang.X. & Hofe.R.v., 2007)

Definition of Cohort: • Cohort means ‘group’ or ‘batch’ of

something (usually people) that share same characteristics (age, gender, education level, economic status etc.).

• Different group of people will have different

spefication of requirements for urban expenses budgeting, housing, educations, infrastructures and public amenities (which are the main business of urban planning)

Example of Cohort Graph and Population Growth

Demographic cohort in Greece Three type of growth pattern

Japan Population Changes over Time Malaysia Working Group Cohort

Number of Population by Gender and Age Group Malaysia, 2000 and 2010

Source: Statistic Deparment of Malaysia, 2011

Components of Cohort Survival

Model

Existing Population

Migration Rate

(In, Out)

Mortality Rate

(Death)

Fertility Rate

(Birth)

COHORT SURVIVAL/COMPONENT MODEL • A technique used to project future population, and study demography pattern of

a region, based on previous population data, trends and parameters. • Demography origanate from ancient Greek word meaning “description of people”. • Demographic study focus on population size, location, density, distribution,

movement and characteristics.

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

('000)

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

>75

Age Structure 2000

Male

Female

Below is the population cohort of Johor Bahru District on year 2000, based on 5 year interval and gender. Based on the 2000 population cohort (called as the base year cohort), project population of Johor Bahru for the year 2005, by using Cohort Model.

Age Male Population (MP)

in year base 2000 Female Population (FP)

in base year 2000

0-4 65,153 60,191

5-9 61,739 57,939

10-14 51,381 47,211

15-19 53,394 49,226

20-24 64,621 59,497

25-29 62,532 27,995

30-34 54,754 50,061

35-39 48,068 43,079

40-44 38,440 35,608

45-49 28,197 27972

50-54 20,046 19782

55-59 10631 11548

60-64 10062 10002

65-69 6270 6241

70-74 4179 4118

75 and above 4202 4254

Total 583,669 514,724

Total Population 1,098,393 Source: Johor Bahru District Local Plan, 2003

Age Male Population (MP)

in year base 2000 Female Population (FP)

in base year 2000

0-4 65,153 60,191

5-9 61,739 57,939

10-14 51,381 47,211

15-19 53,394 49,226

20-24 64,621 59,497

25-29 62,532 27,995

30-34 54,754 50,061

35-39 48,068 43,079

40-44 38,440 35,608

45-49 28,197 27972

50-54 20,046 19782

55-59 10631 11548

60-64 10062 10002

65-69 6270 6241

70-74 4179 4118

75 and above 4202 4254

Total 583,669 514,724

Total Population 1,098,393 Projected Population

Fertility Rate

Male/Female Survival Rate

Migrant

Data/Information Required to Run Cohort Model

FORMULA TO CALCULATE SURVIVAL RATE Sx Survival rate of cohort x on year t Pxt-1

Population of cohort x on year t-1 (previous year) Pxt

Population of cohort x on year t (studied year)

STEP 1 : Acquire Survival Rate 1. Calculate survival rate for each age cohort

for both male and female. 2. Except 0-10 years cohort, the Survival

Rate decrease when age increase. 3. Different region will have different

survival rate. For example survival rate between :

i. a poor country such Sudan, ii. a rich country such Britian, iii. a developing country such China, iv. and, a warring country such

Palestine. 4. Survival rate for each age and gender

cohort usually are provided in a region population census report by statistic department.

5. For this exercise, the survival rate are provided as in the following table

Age Male survival

rates Female survival

rates

0-4 0.99479 0.992879

5-9 0.995531 0.996572

10-14 0.995339 0.996803

15-19 0.993107 0.996576

20-24 0.991573 0.994889

25-29 0.990588 0.993757

30-34 0.987926 0.99115

35-39 0.982144 0.987182

40-44 0.971451 0.982565

45-49 0.955657 0.97499

50-54 0.930231 0.956477

55-59 0.893816 0.93254

60-64 0.830124 0.888117

65-69 0.758008 0.831622

70-74 0.558637 0.675795

75 and above 0.279319 0.337898

STEP 2 : Arrange Data in Excel 1. The male, and female population for base

year are arrange along with male and female survival rate in Excel Table.

2. Column in red are essential data needed to run cohort model.

STEP 3 : Project Population and Age Shift Concept 1. By applying the formula below, project the

population of each cohort based on their survival/mortality rate. For instance:

Where: S Survival rate of cohort Pxt

Population of cohort x on year t

The Age Shift Concept

STEP 3 : Project Population and Age Shift Concept 1. By applying the formula below, project the

population of each cohort based on their survival/mortality rate. For instance:

Where: S Survival rate of cohort Pxt

Population of cohort x on year t

In Excel 1. The above formula should be apply by

multiplying the above formula and the age shift concept.

2. For the projected year, population for the last cohort is the total projected population for the last and second last cohort.

STEP 5: Male and Female Baby 1. Below are the fertility rate of each cohort considered as fertile period for female in Johor Bahru

District. By using fertility rate of 2000 (based year female population) , we could calculate population of 0-4 cohort for 2005.

2. By utilizing the ratio of male and female population in base year, we could calculate the number of children age 0-4 years old during the projected year by gender.

3. Below is the formula to calculate ratio between male and female population:

Where: Pxt

Population of x cohort on time t Age

Age specific

fertility rates

or birth rates

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19 0.039752

20-24 0.187693

25-29 0.248447

30-34 0.20773

35-39 0.143431

40-44 0.059273

45-49 0.006755

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75 and above

Based on the given set of data, survival rate, and birth rate, in the tutorial, project the population of Johor Bahru District (JB) until year 2015 by using the projected population in year 2005 as the base year, and answer the following questions:

(5 carry marks) * Make your answer and report straight forward and as

comprehensive as possible, in Englisih.

QUESTIONS 1. What is the total projected population of JB at year

2015 and number of houses needed for JB if a single family consist of 4.3 peoples?

2. Describe and explain the population cohort shape/growth of Johor Bahru District on year 2015, is it the same with 2005?

3. In Malaysia, why cohort method did not consider the factor of migrator? (hint: look over the population census report under technical notes).

4. By utilizing the projected population cohort in year 2015, how many primary school should be provided if each primary school able to accommodate 1000 pupils? If you unable to deter, explain why and suggest improvement on this cohort model so you could use it to calculate future demand for school amenities.

5. State the formula to calculate population growth rate (refer census report), and calculate the average annual growth rate of JB for 2005-2010, 2010-2015 and compare. Why is the rate is like that?

Book Wang, X. & Hofe, R.V. ,(2007) Research Methods in Urban and Regional Planning. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, New York. ISBN 978-3-540-49657-1. Excel Maria Langer (1999) Excel 2000 for Windows; Visual Quick Start Guide, Peachpit Press (HF 5548.4 M523 L36 1999 c.1) 15 Palani Murugappan (2002) EXCEL; Functions for the daily serve, Venton publishing (HF 5548.4. M523 P36 2002 c.1) Website Japan Population Distribution based on Age. Obtained on 12 March 2012. http://japanfocus.org/-Glenda_S_-Roberts/3450 Population Changes and Trend. Obtained on 12 March 2012. http://www.prb.org/Educators/TeachersGuides/HumanPopulation/Change.aspx Greece Demography. Obtained on 12 March 2012. http://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/

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