Political uses of social media - examples from Norway and SwedenGuest Lecture for MEVIT 4610 February 27, 2014"

Anders Olof Larsson @a_larssonUniversity of Oslo a.o.larsson@media.uio.noandersoloflarsson.se"

http://www.firsttimeorangecounty.com/images/famous-debate-with-kennedy.jpg

http://mashable.com/2010/01/18/obamas-first-real-tweet/

Norway – Beyond the first “Twitter Election”"-  Comparing different types of elections"

-  2011: regional & municipal"-  2013: national"

-  Twitter as a novelty in 2011… how do the practices uncovered in 2013 differ?"

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Elec

tion

Day" 1" 2" 3"

2011 - Tweets"

2013 - Tweets"

2011 - Users"

2013 - Users"

Top Users - Different Types of Actors"

Media - light grey "Political - dark grey"Communication/PR – black"Citizens – white"Deleted - striped"

0" 50" 100" 150" 200" 250" 300" 350" 400"haavardLangnes"

MatsKBj"skonservativ"

alfabetheta"cfstraumsheim"

Helga76"fanahoyre"

Lygre"EuroDale"

Solvik_liberal"mathiasfischer"

FFKHenrik"kagjerde"

kjetilloset"bjornof"

Pederen"KSteigen"

Hoyre"politiskno"

thorbjarnebore"voxpopulinor"

Partiet"LarsMDG"

JanFredrikB"nicecap"

stmarthinsen"Tom_Staahle"

Oterhaug"VALG2011"

Media - light grey "Political - dark grey"Communication/PR – black"Citizens – white"Deleted - striped"

Top Users - 2011"

Media - light grey "Political - dark grey"Communication/PR – black"Citizens – white"Deleted - striped"

Top Users - 2013"

0" 50" 100" 150" 200" 250" 300"sarpemor"

JanEvensen2"Bustefaen"

hashtagsno"trijaks11"

Solvik_liberal"reroll"

sten_klev_olsen"SaysPhilippe"danielswedin"

AndersTangen"electionista"

r083r73h"trendinaliaNO"

RuneAaH"Yrkeskverulant"

RadneyThomsen"AtleSognli"

stmarthinsen"KSteigen"

PiratPartiet_No"OyvindRein"

Nagulens"HavardJohansen"

dekristne"jonhaugan"

LisaCharleneH"Partiet"

VALG2013"

@replies retweets"

@replies "

2011" 2013"

@replies"

retweets "

2011" 2013"

retweets"

Preliminary conclusions

… in short"

‘Underdogs’ appear to be more active"

-  Established parties can rely on access to established media"-  Less established actors use Twitter to “surf the

hashtag” – get picked up in other contexts (?)"-  Seems especially valid for Partiet – consider the

role of environmental parties during the ‘1.0’ era!-  Future comparative studies"

-  Sweden 2014"-  ‘1.0’ repeating itself? Established actors take over

initiative from smaller counterparts? "

”Professionalized” Campaigning""

•  A “catchall term” (Lilleker and Negrine, 2002)"•  The notion of ”Permanent Campaigning” as a

definitory attempt "•  The role of the Internet in permament

campaigning"•  Just how permanent is permanent

campaigning?"

A note on method"•  Dependent variables"

–  Twitter Activity Index: N of tweets / N of days"–  Facebook Page Activity Index: N of posts / N of

days"

•  Independent variables"–  Individual measures: Age, Gender, Incumbency,

Key Position"–  Contextual measures: Ideology, Vote Percentage,

Size of Constituency "

- Adoption Rates -"

- Usage Rates -"

Median = 0.60 tweets/day Median = 0.95 tweets/day

Median = 0.28 posts/day Median = 0.11 posts/day

- Influences on Use -"

Twitter" Facebook"

Adoption" Use" Adoption" Use"

Individual Variables"

Age"

Gender"

Incumbency"

Key Position"

Contextual"Variables"

Vote %"

Ideology"

Size of constituency"

Cox & Snell R2"

Nagelkerke R2"

Twitter" Facebook"

Adoption" Use" Adoption" Use"

Individual Variables"

Age" -.08***" -.07***" -.66***" -.02"

Gender" .18" .56*" -.34" .31"

Incumbency" -.53**" .01" -.19" -.02"

Key Position" -.48" -.91*" -1.7***" -1.9***"

Contextual"Variables"

Vote %" -.02*" -.01" -.01" -.04*"

Ideology" .01" -.09" -.22" -.35"

Size of constituency"

.00" .00" .01" .00"

Cox & Snell R2" .15" .14" .12" .18"

Nagelkerke R2" .21" .18" .19" .24"

- To conclude -"

Four Concluding Points"1) Limited and socially skewed Use…"

–  Median N of tweets or posts/day < 1"–  Is the online excluded from ”Permanent Campaigning”?"–  What does ”Permanent Campaigning” mean, exactly?"–  Social Media Mismatch: Twitter more popular among

politicians, less so among citizens""

2) Deideologization"–  Online activity to vary “not only across countries but also

across different party types” (Lisi, 2013:262)"–  no significant differences could be discerned between either

countries or party groups – “most-similar design”"–  Parties emulate each other… also visible online"–  Perhaps as a results of non-election period data collection?"

Two more…"3) Individual vs. Contextual predictors"

–  Limited influences of contextual predictors"–  The shift to more individualized activities (Vergeer, 2012)

appears tangible also in more party-centered democracies like the ones under scrutiny here (e.g. Karlsen, 2012; Larsson & Moe 2013). "

"

4) The ”Underdog” effect"–  Ardent users of social media tend to be younger, non-

incumbents and outside of the immediate political limelight"–  As established politicians might have access to established

media, social media could serve as an “opening for the outsiders” (Strandberg, 2009)"

Questions? Comments? ""

Anders Olof Larsson - @a_larssonUniversity of Oslo a.o.larsson@media.uio.noandersoloflarsson.se""