Date: 19-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

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CONTENTS

Outlook

• Cotton

• Soybean

• Castor seed

• Jeera

• Sugar

• RM Seed

• Coriander

• Turmeric

Other data

• Sowing progress: Kharif 2017-18

• Monsoon Probabilities

• State wise procurement of wheat & rice

Date: 19-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Price Trend & Technicals

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Cotton - 29 mm - Rajkot

COTTON

Cotton prices continue to trade in a range bound movement.

However higher sowing acreage expectation in the coming season

may put downward pressure on the prices in the coming days. Near

term support seem to be at Rs 20175 and whereas resistance is seen

at Rs 20650. In the coming days prices are expected to trade in the

range of Rs 20200 to Rs 20500 with a slightly bearish undertone.

However, if prices fall below the first support level of Rs 20175, it

might test the second support level of Rs19950.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

19950 20175 20417 20650 21000

Outlook: Prices will continue to trade in the range of Rs 20200-20500.

• Cotton prices in recent months have been farmer-friendly, motivating them to respond well with higher acreages and improved agronomic

practices. Additionally, there is likely to be a shift of area to cotton from pulses and oilseeds due to disillusionment with their low prices.

• Thus subject to normal weather and low incidence of pest incidents, India can produce around 360 lakh bales of cotton output in 2017-18 against

340.50 lakh bales estimated in 20167-17 which was only slightly higher than 337.75 lakh bales in 2015-16.

• The available surplus at end of year is estimated at 110.50 lakh bales. Cotton futures are expected to be under pressure on reports of good

sowing progress and higher stock levels in India. Stockists are expected to release stocks in anticipation of fall in prices.

• India’s Cotton arrivals for the period 1st june till 15th june (AGMARKNET) stood at 25158.65 tonnes this year vs 18646.31 tonnes last year for the

same period. The arrivals, which were delayed this season have almost ended.

• India’s cotton imports, estimated to be touching an all-time high of 30 lakh bales in 2016-17 against 20 lakh bales in 2015-16 due to holding of

stock and stronger rupee, are likely to fall this year. Exports however, despite a bumper production, may rise only slightly over last 2016-17 lower

levels. The reason is higher production forecasts of other countries as well as a strong rupee which will make exports less competitive. India’s

cotton exports of cotton in 2016-17 were lower by around 30% over 2015-16 due to no significant rise in production and export disparity.

• Large domestic production & limited export opportunities will challenge India’s cotton sector. Government should gear up for the possible glut

lest cotton meets the same fate as pulses & oilseeds did this year.

• Overall score of 2.9 shows consolidation to mild bearishness in the cotton prices as stockists release stocks.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Significantly strong sowing progress of cotton in India and higher production estimates for 2017-18

Bearish 20% 2

Stockists releasing stocks in anticipation of price fall Bearish 15% 2

High imports of 2016-17 Bearish 10% 2

High mill demand Bullish 15% 4

Arrivals nearing end Bullish 30% 4

Significant increase expected in world cotton production 2017-18

Bearish 10% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.9

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

• Lead by a marked increase in sowing & production estimates of cotton in

India, World cotton production 2017-18 is likely to witness a jump of 8.2% (as

per latest USDA report) over last year with higher output anticipated in

other origins such as China, Pakistan, US and Mexico.

• In India, as per the latest sowing updates, cotton has been sown in 16.67

lakh hectares till 16 June, 36.1% higher than 12.25 lakh hectares sown till the

same date last year. Higher area is reported particularly from the states of

Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Tami Nadu.

•

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Mandi Price in Rs/ Candy

16-06-2017 9-06-2017 % change

Akola (29 mm) 11582 11691 -0.93

Rajkot (29 mm) 11979 11979 0.00

Abohar (28 mm) 12260 12401 -1.14

Date: 19-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend & Technicals

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Sugar - M-grade : MuzaffarnagarPrices after showing a strong positive momentum in expectations

of a drop in production this season have somewhat moderated

from the higher levels due to good cane areage this year coupled

with expected rise in global production. No decision of increase in

import duty is also playing bearish on the prices and can pull down

prices further from the current levels We hold out last week’s view

that a conclusive breach and sustained trading below the support

range of Rs 3820-3800 will bring in some more technical selling in

the market pulling prices down towards the next support of Rs

3740 in the coming weeks.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3740 3825 3873 3920 3960

Outlook: Break of Rs 3820 will weaken prices further towards Rs 3740

• Sugar prices are on a decline in global and local markets amidst sufficient

supplies, which is putting pressure on shares of sugar mills. Sugar mills had

thus urged the government to raise the import duty to 60 per cent, as low

global prices of raw sugar have made imports attractive even at the current

sugar import duty of 40%.

• However, Government has as of now decided not to hike sugar import duty.

• India’s sugarcane sowing is well progressed on back of good monsoon &

increase in FRP by 11%, to Rs 255/qtl from Rs 230/qtl. As on 16 June, sugarcane

was sown in 47.52 lakh hetares against the normal of 44.5 till the date.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

16-06-2017 9-06-2017 %Change

Muzzafarnagar 3845 3860.9 -0.41

Kolhapur 3783.5 3800 -0.43

Delhi 3825 3887.5 -1.61

• India’s sugar output is estimated to rebound to atleast 25 mn tonnes in 2017-18 against 20.2 million tonnes estimated for 2016-17. The output of

2016-17 was down 19.5% from 25.1 million tonnes in 2015-16. Maharashtra’s sugar output is set to bounce back in coming season with an estimated

production of 73 lakh tonnes for 2017-18, a rise of 74% from last year. In Maharashtra, the 2016-17 sugar production fell 50 per cent to 4.18 million

tonnes from a year ago due to consecutive droughts resulting in lower sugarcane crop.

• India was forced to import around 500,000 tonnes of sugar to fulfil its domestic demand though the large carryover stocks from previous year

ensured more imports were not needed.

• Meanshile the traders are unhappy with Sugar falling under GST ambit. At present, the only tax the commodity attracts is the excise tariff, of Rs

71 per quintal which works out around two per cent on the ex-mill prices of sugar. The proposed GST slab of 5%, may cut traders’ margins,

increase the retail price of sugar and affect the households according to traders view.

• USDA has pegged 2017-18 sugar production at a record high of 180 million on higher output in Brazil, China, the European Union, India and

Thailand.

• In the international market, prices of raw sugar and white sugar have both declined. White sugar on the Intercontinental Exchange is down by

6.8%, while raw sugar futures are down by 10.7% due to higher than expected output in Brazil.

• A weaker gasoline price undermines value of rival ethanol too, in turn feeding through into weaker sugar prices, given that the sweetener and

the biofuel compete for their portions of the Brazilian cane crush.

• Overall fundamental score of 2.7 shows mild bearishness in sugar prices given global backdrop turning bearish & higher production estimates.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Higher cane acreage & expected rebound in sugar production 2017-18 Bearish 20% 2

High carry forward stock and sufficient availability Bearish 15% 2

Low production in 2016-17 - 19.5% y-o-y Bullish 30% 4

Slumping International prices due to higher production estimates Bearish 15% 2

Government deciding against increasing import duty Bearish 15% 2

Sugar coming under GST 5% slab Bullish 5% 4

Overall fundamental score 2.7

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

02-06-2017 26-05-2017 %Change

Muzzafarnagar 3915 3892.5 0.58

Kolhapur 3837 3847.5 -0.27

Delhi 3932.55 3920 0.32

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

SUGAR

BACK TO TOP

Date: 19-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend & Technicals

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Soyabeans-10-2-2-7 : Indore As expected the spot soybean prices at indore moved down further

and touched a low of Rs 2859 last week after breaking the lower

band of the trend channel it has been trading on. Negative cues from

the fundamental front is still strong and the chances of any sharp

recovery is still unlikely. For the coming days we can expect some

sideways movement in prices. The support is seen at Rs 2860 and the

resistance stands in the price range of Rs 2985-3080. The prices will

trade witin that range with sluggish undertone. Any rise towards the

upper band will invite technical selling. A crack of 2860 will extend

the decline towards Rs 2820.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

2820 2860 2931 2985 3080

Outlook: Prices will trade with sidewys to down momentum within a range of Rs 2860-2950

• Farmers protest in major soybean states like Madhya Pradesh and

Maharashtra has affected the soybean mandi arrivals. Farmers are

demanding realistic price for their produce. Lower arrivals in the mandis

may lend some support to the prices.

• MSP of soybean may increase in the coming season by Rs 175 per quintal

to Rs 2950 per quintal. Expectation of increase in MSP of soybean may

have slightly bullish impact on the prices.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

16-06-2017 09-06-2017 % change

Indore 2931 2886 1.56

Kota 2815 2760 1.99

Nagpur 2901.85 2897.1 0.16

• Imports of veg oil has increased due to lack of availability of domestic oils despite bumper production as farmers are not bringing their crop for

crushing. Higher imports of oils may have a bearish impact on the prices.

• According to the latest sowing report, soybean sowing has just started and acreage for 2017-18 is recoded at 0.45 lakh hectares which is 55.44

per cent lowerer than last year’s acreage of 1.01 lakh hectares at the same period. Farmers may shift to other crops other than soybean as they

got lower income realisation this year. Lower sowing acreage report may have bullish impact on the prices.

• Higher U.S. soybean beginning stocks and sowing data for 2017 may continue to put downward pressure on the domestic prices. As per latest

USDA report, soybean planting is 92% complete which is up from 91% in the corresponding period last year.

• Government of India has put soybean seed under 5 per cent GST rate set which has put downward pressure on the spot prices as traders and

stockiest are releasing their stock.

• India’s soymeal exports in the month of April were 124.37 thousand MT, higher by 16.17 per cent as against of 107.05 thousand MT in March

2017. India’s soymeal meal exports in the period April-March 2016-17 were 9.16 Lakh MT as against 3.87 Lakh MT during the same period in 2015-

16, an increase of 136.69 per cent.

• The overall fundamental score of 2.8 shows slightly bearish movement in the coming days.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Lower arrivals due to protest Bullish 10% 4

Expectation of increase in MSP Bullish 15% 4

Higher veg oil imports Bearish 30% 2

Lower sowing acreage data Bullish 15% 4

Higher US beginning stocks and planting figure Bearish 30% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.8

*1. Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International SOYA BEAN

BACK TO TOP

Date: 19-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend & Technicals

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3,750.00

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Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : JaipurRM seed prices are strongly in control of bears at the moment.

Prices have declined continuously since March from the highs of

Rs 4085. Higher production estimates and falling export

demand has resulted in this movement. After such a sharp

meltdown, chances of any sharp recovery are minimal and the

undertone will continue to be sluggish in the days ahead as well.

Till that time prices which are trading below Rs 3750 prices

might see further moderation towards Rs 3620. For any

noticeable recovery the prices needs to close above Rs 3750

which will take it higher towards Rs 3840.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3550 3620 3692 3750 3840

Outlook: Prices will move saideways with downward bias towards 3620.

• According to the agmark, all India Mustard crop mandi arrivals in the

second week of June is around 41.04 thousand tonnes which is 31.47 per

cent lower than first week of June arrivals of 59.88 thousand tonnes.

Arrivals have slightly decreased as compare to the previous week which

might have a marginal bullish impact on the prices.

• Lower crush margin and availability of crop has made imports of veg oil

higher in India. Higher imports of oils may have a bearish impact on the

mustard spot prices.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

16-06-2017 09-06-2017 % change

Jaipur 3692.85 3712.85 -0.54

Alwar 3690.85 3716 -0.68

Sriganga Nagar 3300 3334 -1.02

• Despite higher production estimate of mustard, arrivals are lower in the mandis as farmers are not bringing their crop due to lower prevailing

market price.

• As arrivals of soybean might get affected due to agitation of farmers in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashta, mustard oil demand may increase.

Higher domestic mustard oil demand might have a marginal bullish impact on the prices.

• Government of India has put mustard seed under 5 per cent GST rate set which has put downward pressure on the spot prices. However, of the 2

products manufactured after crushing oilseeds, only mustard oil will attract 5% GST and oil cake has been put in the nil tax category.

• GST rate on mustard seed might have a marginal bearish impact on the prices.

• India’s mustard meal exports in the month of April 2017 were 6.84 thousand MT, lower by 10.70 per cent against 7.66 thousand MT in March 2017.

India’s mustard meal exports in the period April-March 2016-17 were 2.14 Lakh MT as against 3.31 Lakh MT during the same period last year. Lower

export demand may have a marginal bearish impact on the prices.

• As per third advance production estimate of 2016-17, India’s mustard production is estimated at 7.977 million metric tonne which is slightly higher

than second advance production estimate of 7.912 million metric tonne. However, it is 17.36 per cent higher than last year production estimate of

6.797 million metric tonne. Higher production estimate may have a marginal bearish impact on the prices.

• Overall score of 2.8 shows prices may trade range bound with downward pressure on the market.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Lower arrivals Bullish 20% 4

Higher imports of veg oils Bearish 15% 2

Higher domestic demand of oil Bullish 20% 4

Lower GST on mustard oil Bearish 15% 2

Lower meal export demand Bearish 15% 2

Higher production estimate Bearish 15% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.8

* 1. Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International RM SEED

BACK TO TOP

Date: 19-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Price Trend & Technicals

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Castor - Deesa

CASTOR SEED

Prices after the recent surge to the highs of Rs 4920 have failed to

sustain the gains and have melted down. In the last few weeks too

the acreage numbers and mandi arrivals are not supportive for the

prices. Reduced export have also weiged down prices. On the

downside support of Rs 4305 if broken convincingly will result in

further declines towards Rs 4200. Strong resistance is seen at Rs

4475 and that will cap the upside in castor for the enar term.

However the decline is not expected to be shast as the effect of

lower production is still not over and is preventing sharp downfall.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

4080 4200 4375 4470 4610

Outlook: Prices will continue to trade with sideways to bearish undertone and move closer to Rs 4200 mark.

• According to the latest sowing report, kharif castor sowing has just

started and acreage for 2017-18 is recoded at 0.01 lakh hectares which

is same as 2016-17 acreage at the same period last year. According to

market participants, overall castor acreage is expected to increase

this year due to higher current prices and favourable weather

expectation. Expectation of higher sowing acreage may have bearish

impact on the prices.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

16-06-2017 09-06-2017 % change

Kurnool 3628 3751 -3.28

Rajkot 4025 3875 3.87

Deesa 4250 4205 1.07

• According to the agmark, castor arrivals in the mandis have slightly increased due to slight firmness in prices of spot market. In the second week

of June all India castor crop arrivals were 15.79 thousand tonnes which were 32.66 percent higher than first week of June. In first week of June

arrivals were 11.90 tonnes in all India mandis. Higher arrivals may have bearish impact on the prices.

• Farmers and stockiest are holding their castor crop as current market prices are ruling lower than their expectations. Holding of stock by

farmers and traders may have bullish impact on the prices.

• Castor oil export demand in the coming days is expected to be lower than normal due to weak demand from importing countries and strong

rupee appreciation against dollar. Lower export demand may have marginally bearish impact on the prices.

• India’s castor oil export in the month of April is recorded at 55.55 thousand tonnes which is 22.43 percent higher than export of 45.37 thousand

tonnes last year same duration.

• India’s castor meal exports in the month of April were 2.75 thousand MT, lower by 91.70 per cent against 33.25 thousand MT in March 2017.

India’s castor meal exports in the period April-March 2016-17 were 4.10 Lakh MT as against 4.56 Lakh MT during the same period in 2015-16.

• Castor seed production is estimated at 15.54 lakh metric tonne which is lower than second advance production estimate of 17.38 lakh metric

tonne. Moreover, it is around 1 per cent lower than last year’s production estimate of 17.52 lakh metric tonne.

• Overall score of 2.9 shows range bound to slightly weak movement.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Higher sowing acreage expected Bearish 20% 2

Higher mandi arrivals Bearish 20% 2

Stock holding Bullish 30% 4

Lower castor oil export demand Bearish 15% 2

Lower production Bullish 15% 4

Overall fundamental score 2.9

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

BACK TO TOP

Date: 19-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

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Price Trend &Technicals

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Cumin Seed (Kala Jeera) - UnjhaPrices after declining to Rs 18076 during the month of May 2017

have once again started to gain positive momentum on account of

increased buying activity at the lower levels. Although the sluggish

export demand is not helping much but the tight demand supply

situation is keeping the sentiments underpinned. The prices may

continue its recovery mode and may move closer to Rs 18700 mark.

A breach of that resistance will push the prices even higher towards

Rs 19000 & 19200 in the weeks to come. Strong support is seen at

around Rs 18100 which may prevent any significant fall from there.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

17700 18075 18555 18715 19180

Outlook: Some recovery can pull prices higher towards Rs 18700-18900 mark.

BACK TO TOP

• Jeera futures as well as spot prices across the country remained firm

due to strong domestic and export demand against tight supplies.

The mismatch in supply-demand will be positive for cumin seed in the

long term.

• According to Unjha based traders, demand is good as stocks are

declining with farmers and there is also a lower production estimate

by Government which is supporting the commodity. Jeera arrivals in

other than Unjha market of Gujarat is declining. Stockists, traders,

exporters are buying cumin seed as they are expecting demand to

improve ahead of festival demand, said a trader from Rajkot.

Mandi

Jeera: Price in Rs/ Quintal

16-06-2017 09-06-2017 % change

Unjha 18,458 18,433 0.13

Halvad 17,300 17,050 1.46

Jodhpur 18,450 18,142 1.69

• Indias cumin seed exports during 2016-17 (Apr-Mar) rose 30.35 per cent at 1.23 lakh tonnes against 0.94 lakh tonnes same period a year ago,

according to commerce ministry. Export of cumin seed surpassed spices board target of 1.10 lakh tonnes.

• Cumin seed Singapore (99%) was priced at $2,780 per tonne for Haiphong Port (CNF), whereas European (99%) was priced at $2,910 per tonnes.

• As per the second advance estimates for 2016-17, domestic Cumin production is estimated at 4.86 lakh tonnes as against 5.03 lakh tonnes last

year. Gujarat Agriculture Department has pegged 2016-17 cumin seed crop at 2.12 lakh tonnes as against 2.38 lakh tonnes a year ago due to lower

sowing and decline in yield. As per the Commodity Survey report of NCML, Cumin production during the current season is likely to be 51 lakh bags

as compared to 42 lakh bags last year.

• According to market sources, Cumin seed production of around 12,000 to 15,000 tonnes is expected in Turkey, while Syria is likely to produce

around 7,000 to 8,000 tonnes this year.

• Jeera stocks at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 15th June 2017, stood at 1247 tonnes as compared to 3496 metric tonnes same period last year.

• Overall fundamental score of 3.3 indicates that a bullish trend would be witnessed.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Strong domestic and export demand Bullish 20% 4

Low domestic and global production estimates Bullish 20% 3

Lower stock position Bullish 20% 3

Profit booking at higher levels Bearish 15% 2

Declining arrivals in spot markets Bullish 25% 4

Overall fundamental score 3.3

*1.Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International JEERA

Date: 19-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend &Technicals

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Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : NizamabadOverall undertone in Turmeric prices is still negative after the

prices started to nosedive from around Rs 7800 in December last

year. However some bargain hunting at the lower levels is seen

which might pull the prices towards the resistance of Rs 5650.

Any fresh buying momentum will develop only on a breach of that

resistance which not likely to happen in the near future. If the

prices fails to breach that level we might see a drop once again

towards the recently made low Rs 5376 and a breach of Rs 5376

will weaken turmeric prices further to Rs 5200.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

5376 5410 5568 5650 5800

Outlook: A rise towards Rs5650 will attract seeling pressure again pulling prices down.

BACK TO TOP

Fundamentals- Domestic & International TURMERIC

• Steady tone was witnessed in Turmeric spot markets across the country due

to restricted domestic and export demand. While the Futures market traded

positive on expectations of delay in monsoon progress in key states,

however traders are optimistic and expecting demand to increase ahead.

• As per Erode based traders, Turmeric prices are trading at lower levels and

demand is likely to improve in coming days and may help to recover

Turmeric prices.

• According to market sources, Turmeric acreage in Maharashtra is likely to

decline next season as farmers may shift to sugarcane as they get three

times better rates against Turmeric.

Mandi Turmeric: Price in Rs/ Quintal

16-06-2017 09-06-2017 % change

Nizamabad 5557 5525 0.57

Sangli 5600 5500 1.18

Coimbatore 6800 6750 0.74

• Business activity in Turmeric is not very strong at present mainly due to rollout of GST. Buyers and sellers are uncertain and hesitant to do any

bulk deals and waiting for more clarity about GST.

• Agriculture Ministry raised the estimates of Turmeric production in the second advance estimates to 10.52 lakh tonnes in 2016-17 against 9.43

lakh tonnes last year. As per trade sources, consumption (domestic/export) estimated at 80-82 lakh bags, leaving only 5-8 lakh bags as ending

stocks for 2016-17. Lower ending stocks going forward may provide support to Turmeric prices, however a lot will depend on rainfall. Farmers

may reduced Turmeric cultivation to some extent due to lower prices.

• According to the Indian Spices Board, Turmeric exports rose 32 per cent on year to 116,500 tonne due to increased global demand mainly from

the pharmaceutical industry. Export demand for Turmeric in FY 2017-18 is likely to exceed as prices are much lower than last year.

• Turmeric stocks position at NCDEX approved warehouses on 15th June, 2017 stood at 6618 tonnes as against 5697 tonnes same period last year.

• Overall fundamental score of 2.75 indicates that Turmeric prices would be trading bearish.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Subdued domestic and export demand Bearish 25% 2

Higher production estimates Bearish 20% 2

Improved demand at lower levels Bullish 20% 4

Uncertainity on GST roll out Bearish 15% 3

Low stocks availability Bullish 20% 3

Overall fundamental score 2.75

* 1. Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Date: 19-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend & Technicals

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Coriander - Badami : Kota Expectation of a higher domestic production in Gujarat and declining

exports because of global disparity and sufficient availability in the

market have collectively weighed on the prices over the past few

months. The major outlook in the coming weeks continues to be

bearish. However, there has been a mild pullback in the prices in the

last couple of weeks as a result of buyers getting active in the market

after such sharp fall. The recovery might continue for some more time

but the chances of any significant recovery at these levels are minimal.

Prices might rise to Rs 5580 before the bears can take over once again.

Immediate supports are seen at Rs 5206 and then Rs 5110.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

5110 5206 5320 5580 5750

Outlook: Some recovery can be seen with prices moving towards Rs 5580.

• Coriander futures fell steeply over the past weeks due to lower demand

from stockists and retailers in the physical market against adequate stocks

position on increased supplies from producing regions. As a result the

participants further trimmed their positions.

• Though some recovery was seen in prices in the second week of June as

arrivals slowed down a little, the prices remained at low levels.

• Despite a fall in coriander acreage in 2016-17, the National Horticulture

Board has pegged India’s 2016-17 coriander output at 6.09 lakh MT against

5.85 lakh MT in 2015-16.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

16-06-2017 09-06-2017 %change

Kota 5320.15 5162.5 3.05

Gondal 5100 5100 0.00

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

High yield and production in Gujarat lifting overall output Bearish 20% 2

Fall in acreage in Rajasthan and MP Bullish 30% 4

High imports Bearish 10% 2

Lower exports due to disparity with Russia Bearish 10% 2

Fluctuating demand from retailers and stockists Consolidation 20% 3

Ongoing arrivals Bearish 10% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.8

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

• A good crop in Gujarat which recorded high yields due to favourable weather has been the main reason for ample supplies coming in. Crop from

Gujarat has also offset fall in coriander acreage in Rajasthan and MP.

• The arrivals of coriander seed during the first 4 months 2017 were 3.31 lakh tonnes compared to 2.55 lt in 2016, an increase of 30% y-o-y. However

India’s Coriander arrivals for the period 1st june till 15th june (AGMARKNET) stood at 219288.8 tonnes this year vs 370458.1 tonnes last year for

the same period due to the nosediving prices.

• Further, higher imports from Russia and Ukraine have added to the supplies driving down the prices down. Last year, country imported about

25,900 tonnes of coriander mainly from Russia and Italy. The volume of import increase to more than 41,250 tonnes in 2016/17 in first 10 months.

• On the export front, India’s export demand has shifted to Russia due to cheaper rates and Russia has overtaken India as world’s largest

coriander exporter. India exported about 25,339 tonnes of coriander seeds in first 10 month of 2016/17 compared to 31,261 tonnes in the previous

year for same period. The export volume of coriander seed was 46,800 tonnes in 2013/14, thus it is expected that there will be a drop of 40% in

export volume in 3 years.

• Overall fundamental score of 2.8 shows bearishness in coriander prices.

Fundamentals- Domestic & International CORIANDER

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Date: 19-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

• Government increases MSP of pulses, oil-seeds and cotton to support farmers amid price fall News Link

• Drop in global raw sugar price makes imports viable even at 40% duty News Link

• No plan to hike import duty on wheat, sugar, edible oils : Govt News Link

• Fall in domestic crushing pushes up veg oil imports News Link

• Spices exports shatter record News Link

• Near-term view is bearish for MCX-Cotton contract News Link

• Slack demand pulls down pepper News Link

• Sugar traders observe strike to protest the 5 per cent GST levy on the industry News Link

• Protest over key clauses brings trade to a halt in three States News Link

• Only needy farmers to benefit from loan waiver: Maharashtra CM News Link

• GST Council reduces tax levied on packaged food items from 18% to 12% News Link

• RBI sounds the alarm on farm loan waivers News Link

• 'Abysmal' US crop rating sends spring wheat futures to two-year top News Link

• China may buy record volume US soybeans News Link

• Bulls tighten grip on world grain markets, bears on sugar, cotton News Link

-1.91.3

-0.1

0.0

1.4

-6.3

-1.5

0.5

0.9

0.4

-1.1

-3.0

0.5

0.66

-9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0

Chana

Tur

Wheat

Paddy

Maize

Guar

Soya

Mustard

Cotton

Sugar

Castor

Coriander

Turmeric

Jeera

% age change since 09-06-2017

News corner

OFFICIAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES

Third advance estimates 2016-17 & previous years’ estimates :

Third Advance Estimates

Link for commodity-wise and

market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArrival

s/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

MSP

Commodity Variety MSP 2015-16 (inclusive

of bonus)Rs/Qtl MSP 2016-17 (inclusive

of bonus) Rs/Qtl

Wheat - 1525 1625

Paddy Common 1410 1470

Jowar

Grade A 1450 1510

Hybrid 1570 1625

Bajra

Maldandi 1590 1650

- 1275 1330

Maize - 1325 1365

Ragi - 1650 1725

Tur - 4625 5050

Moong - 4850 5225

Masur (Lentil) - 3400 3950

RM Seed - 3350 3700

Barley 1225 1325

Safflower 3300 3700

Gram 3500 4000

Soyabean* Yellow 2600 2775

Sunflower Seed - 3800 3950

Nigerseed - 3650 3825

Sesamum - 4700 5000

Cotton Med. Staple 3800 3860

Long Staple 4100 4160

Groundnut - 4030 4220

Urad - 4625 5000

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MONSOON PROBABILITIES- IMD

Date: 19-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Sowing progress: Kharif 2017-18- PIB

Date: 19-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Procurement of Rice in RMS 2016-17

SOURCE: FCI

State wise procurement of Wheat for RMS 2017-18 - FCI

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SOURCE: FCI

Date: 19-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Advisory Team

Basant Vaid Head: TCIG basant.v@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM sreedhar.n@ncml.com

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG suresh.s@ncml.com

Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG kamna.m@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG akash.j@ncml.com

Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support ansh.a@ncml.com

For any research queries, contact us at research@ncml.com

Disclaimer:

This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the addressee.

Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any third party in

possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised reasonable care and skill in

preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others. No other warranty, express or

implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting from errors, omissions or

misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based on circumstances and facts as

they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on which this report is based may adversely affect

any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.

© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017

STOCK

Stock limits of States/UTs

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