Migration and Brain Drain in Azerbaijan

JOURNAL OF QAFQAZ UNIVERSITY- ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATION 2014. Volume 2, Number 1 Pages 3-13

3

UOT: 331.556; 314.7

MIGRATION AND BRAIN DRAIN: SURVEY FOR THE AZERBAIJAN ECONOMY

Sarvar GURBANOV Qafqaz University

Baku / AZERBAIJAN

[email protected]

ABSTRACT Existing literature about migration flows between developing and developed countries provides numerous

country cases on brain drain related issues. One study suggests that, Turkey is relatively unsuccessful on managing brain drain. On the contrary, other study depicts that India converted brain drain to brain grain and it functioned as a significant detail on economic and social development. For the Polish case, we observe "culture of migration" and "social remittances". Data shows that in many cases, up to 60 % of Africans migrate to America have tertiary education. By 2011, Malaysia established a Talent Corporation for retain emigrants. A figure from early 2000s; in the American academic circles there were 4000 Iranian professors, 500 of them were at "top-ranked" universities. All these bare facts show how significant it is to develop national policy tools against to the negative economic and social impacts of brain drain. In 2004, oil boom started in Azerbaijan. By 2007, Azerbaijan adopted new state program about funding education for nationals in prestigious western universities. First state program covers 2007 - 2015 time period, new state program will be announced by 2015. In this paper, we especially try to stress that, brain drain issue will gain growing importance for years to come. By and large, increasing number of student mobility requires pre-emptive policy precautions about possible brain drain effects. For drawing the picture of current situation, emigration, destination countries and competitiveness related issues will be objects of this survey.

Key words: brain drain, migration, brain gain, education. JEL Codes: F2, O1, J6, J2, Q32

УТЕЧКА УМОВ: ОБСЛЕДОВАНИЕ ДЛЯ ЭКОНОМИКИ АЗЕРБАЙДЖАНА АННОТАЦИЯ

Существующая литература о миграционных потоках между развивающимися и развитыми странами, пре-доставляет многочисленные случаи стран, связанные с вопросами утечки умов. Одно из исследований предполагает, что Турция является сравнительно безуспешной, в управлении утечки умов. Другое иссле-дование, нап-ротив, показывает, что Индия превратила утечку умов в приток умов, и это функционировало как существенная деталь экономического и социального развития. В случаи Польши, мы наблюдаем «культуру миграции» и «со-циальные переводы». Данные показывают, что во многих случаях, вплоть до 60% африкан цев, мигрирующих в Америку, имеют высшее образование. К 2011 году, Малайзия создала Корпорацию Талантов для сохранения эмигрантов. Показатель ранних 2000-х годов; в американских академических кругах было 4000 иранских профес-сора, 500 из них были в "топ-рейтинг» университетов. Все эти неприкрашенные факты показывают, насколько важно разработать национальные средства политики, против негативного экономического и социального воздействия утечки умов. В 2004 году нефтяной бум начался в Азербайджа-не. К 2007 году в Азербайджане была принята новая государственная программа, о финансировании образо-вания для граждан в престижных запад-ных университетах. Первая государственная программа охватывает 2007 - 2015 период времени, а новая государственная программа будет объявлена к 2015 году. В данной рабо-те, мы особенно стараемся подчеркнуть, что вопрос утечки умов, приобретет большее значение в ближай-шие годы. В общем и целом, все большее число студенческой мобильности требует преимущественной поли-тики мер предосторожности в отношении возможных последствий утечки умов. Чтобы нарисовать картину текущей ситуации, эмиграция, страны назначения и вопросы, связанные с конкурентоспособностью, будут объектами этого обследования.

Ключевые слова: утечка умов, миграция, приток умов, образование JEL коды: F2, O1, J6, J2, Q32

Sarvar Gurbanov

4

MİQRASİYA VƏ BEYİN AXINI: AZƏRBAYCAN İQTİSADIYYATININ TƏDQİQİ

XÜLASƏ

İnkişaf etmiş və etməkdə olan ölkələr arasında baş verən miqrasiya axınları haqqında mövcud olan ədəbiyyat, beyin axını ilə əlaqəli mövzularda çox saylı ölkə nümunəsini olduğunu ifadə edir. Aparılan bir tədqiqatın nəticə-lərinə görə Türkiyə beyin axını ilə bağlı məsələlərin öhdəsindən gəlmək barəsində nisbətən daha uğursuz kimi öl-kə hesab edilir. Əksinə, əldə edilən elmi nəticələr, Hindistanın beyin axınını, beyin qazancına çevirdiyini və bunun ölkənin sosial və iqtisadi inkişafı üçün mühüm bir əza kimi funksiya icra etdiyinə dəlalət edir. Polşa nümunəsin-də isə, "mədəniyyətin miqrasiyası" və "sosial baratlar" termininin daha bariz olduğu görülür. Statistiki rəqəmlər əsasında o nəticəyə gəlmək olar ki, Amerikaya gedən Afrikalıların 60 faizi ali təhsillidir. Malayziya 2011-ci ildə, təhsilli əmək qüvvəsini köçdən yayındırmaq və onları ölkədə saxlamaq üçün, "İstedad Korporasiyası" qurmuşdur. Hələ 2000-ci ilin əvvəllərindən olan statistiki göstərici əsasında onu demək olar ki, Amerikan akademik mühitin-də 4 min İranlı professor vardır, bunlardan beş yüz elm adamının ən yüksək reytinqə malik universitetlərdə təd-qiqatlar məşğul olduqları müəyyən edilmişdir. Bütün bu bariz reallıqlar, beyin axının mənfi iqtisadi və sosial təsir-lərindən yayınmaq üçün milli siyasətin və instrumentlərinin təkmilləşdirilməsinin xüsusi əhəmiyyət kəsb etdiyini ifadə edir. 2004-cü ildə, Azərbaycanda neft bumu başladı. 2007-ci ildən etibarən isə, Azərbaycan, tələbələrin, qa-baqcıl qərb universitetlərində təhsil alması üçün Dövlət Proqramını tətbiq etməyə başladı. Bu sahədəki, birinci Dövlət Proqramı 2007 - 2015 -ci illəri əhatə etməkdədir və 2015-ci ildən yeni proqram elan ediləcəkdir. Bu məqalə-də, xüsusilə vurğunlanmaq istənən əsas məsələ odur ki, gələcək dönəmdə, beyin axını mövzusu Azərbaycan üçün daha da aktuallıq qazanacaqdır. Ümumiyyətlə artan tələbə mübadiləsi, beyin axının ehtimal olunan təsirləri barə-sində qabaqlayıcı və ehtiyatlı siyasət tədbirlərinin tətbiq edilməsini tələb edir. Mövcud vəziyyətin mənzərəsini və çərçivəsini müşahidə etmək üçün, miqrasiya, gedilən ölkələr və rəqabətliliklə bağlı məsələlər bu tədqiqatın ob-yektləri olacaqlar.

Açar sözlər: beyin axını, miqrasiya, beyin qazancı, təhsil.

JEL kodları: F2, O1, J6, J2, Q32

1. Introduction

As OECD International Migration Outlook points out statistically, because of the geog raphical proximity developed countries, close to developing ones triggers special effect on migration outflows on latter. By considering Table B.4. Stock of foreign born population by country of birth, data reveals these facts that, there are about 11,7 million Mexican migrants in USA, (OECD, 2013: 376) and during 2001 - 2011, around 1,1 million Mexicans have been the permanent citizens of US (OECD, 2013: 415). Considering same Table, stock of foreign-born population in Germany are like that: 1,5 million Turkish, 1,1 million Polish and 1 million Russians (OECD, 2013: 366). During 2001 - 2011, 96 thousand Korean and 49 thousand Chinese acquired the citizenship of Japan (OECD, 2013:407). In terms of nationality of the stock of foreign population, Chinese are 675 thousand, Koreans 545 thousand and Brazilians 210 thousand (OECD, 2013: 387).

These numbers reveal the crucial fact that, big economies are the main and attractive destinations for the internationally migrating population flows.

Considering above given facts about geog raphical proximity, we can conclude that relatively bigger economy next to Azerbaijan is Turkey.Recent study about the immigration policy of Turkey states that, Turkish policy makers should increase its role on "global race for talent" by relaxing its restrictive im migration policy (Best, 2013: 5). This policy implication came after the legal amendment. By April 2013, Turkey adopted a new law on "Foreigners and International Protection". With this legislative amendment, whoever obtains a work permit, automatically gain residence permit in Turkey. Staying Turkey for eight years back to back will let foreign ners to apply for the unlimited residence permit (Güneş, 2013). As Turkey took this step, because of institutional framework im provement towards the accession of European

Migration and brain drain: survey for the Azerbaijan economy

5

Union (EU), it means that these kind of new amendments may take place. GDP in current prices is around 69 billion USD in Azerbaijan economy (CBAR, 2013: 4) and 785 billion dollars (TUIK, 2013) for Turkish economy. Because of the growing importance of the human capital for the development path, Turkey will always be there as a poten-tial destination for Azerbaijani educated labor-force. As tertiary education level increase in Azerbaijan, brain drain issue is going to gain significance importance. State education expenditures and subsidies foster study ab road. Azerbaijan 2020-Development Concept provides some data about this topic; with the current state program, which covers 2007 - 2015, so far 1,204 students have been sent abroad, current number of students study abroad is 10,700. Development concept en visions that 5,000 students will study abroad by 2015, under the assistance of government funding. Moreover, new study abroad prog ram will cover 2015 - 2020. Because of this reason, Development Concept projects to stimulate scientific and innovative activities

and to prevent brain drain by improving social protection of scholars (Azerbaijan - 2020: 4, 17, 24, ).

To see the number of educated population in Azerbaijan, we collect data from the official reports of The State Students Admission Commission (SSAC) of the Republic of Azerbaijan Annual Reports. Under the cur-rent legislative classification, there are four main different fields of higher education: Group I consists of mathematics, physics, engi neering, chemical technology, architecture and designing, group II consists of economy, mana-gement, international relations, sociology, regional studies and geography, group III consists of hu-manities, arts and music, group IV consists of medicine, chemistry,biology, agrarian, psychology and sport (SSAC, 2012: 319 - 320). Figures in the Table 1. are calculated from this database. Central University exam ranks students within this category: 0 is extremely unsuccessful student grade, 700 is the highest university entrance grade. We assume that, those who record less than 200, is not admitted to any university in Azerbaijan.

Tablo 1. University admission data for Azerbaijan

Education Year Number of National Students Admitted

to the Azerbaijani Universities

Number of studentswhose grade between

500 - 700

Number of studentswhose grade higher

than 600 2012 - 2013 34 102 4 621 1 126 2011 - 2012 38 756 5 433 1 476 2010 - 2011 41 653 5 424 1 414 2009 - 2010 39 933 4 393 996 2008 - 2009 48 303 6 226 1 663 2007 - 2008 40 763 4 679 1 123 2006 - 2007 38 492 4 934 1 031 2005 - 2006 37 311 4 313 1 063 2004 - 2005 31 340 3 531 766

Total 350 655 43 554 10 658

Source: Calculated by the author under the official reports announced publicly by government agency, The State Students Admission Commission (SSAC) of the Republic of Azerbaijan Annual Reports.

Considering figures in Table 1., it is bare fact that, during last 9 years 350665 students had chance to acquire tertiary education. 43,554 students out of this 350665 are the most in tellectual students in Azerbaijan. As stated

earlier, official data reveals that 10,700 stu-dents are abroad. Put it differently, this figure is about 25% of 43, 554. This crucial and bare fact urges policymakers to set up a national policy. This kind of precaution will function

Sarvar Gurbanov

6

as a pre-emptive step. As it is mentioned in Development Concept - 2020, it means there is awareness on this field.

To conclude the introduction section; on one hand, increasing educated citizens in the local economy, on the other hand growing opportunities not only in developed western countries, but also in neighboring economies bring about "brain drain" as one of the po-tential policy target, as it is stated in the Development Concept - Azerbaijan 2020. Remainder of this paper is structured as follows: Section two provides existing lite-rature on brain drain in terms of country cases and samples, section three analyzes the current situation of migration and brain drain related issues in Azerbaijan. And at the last, Conclusion part prescribes policy imp-lications and includes drawing plausible lessons from the selected country examples.

2. Literature Review According to the figures released in the joint study of UN - OECD, by 2013, 232 million international migrants are living in the world. Increasing trend on this figure is pretty striking; during the 1990s, per year global migrant stock increased by 2 million on average basis, the decade after 2000, this figure hit to the 4,6 million migrants annually. In 2013, stock of young migrants reached to the 34,8 million. To focus on the brain drain issue, data shows that tertiary educated im migrants in OECD countries reached to the 27,3 million by 2010/11. About 4,7 million arrived in OECD during last five years (UN-DESA&OECD, 2013:1,3).

During 1980s, under the administration of Chinese leader Deng Xiapoing, the Peoples Republic of China sent some 80.000 students abroad, primarily in the fields of science and technology. The main purpose was study and research. Then, it is realized that by Chinese officials, only a quarter of those sponsored actually returned. To find a rele-vant policy for this outflow, China restrict accession to the TOEFL test, promote career

opportunities in China and impose psycho analytical predictive test upon prospective students, who intend to study abroad (Tyson, 2011: 87). Also, in Malaysia, it is officially and scholarly recognized that to push Ma-laysia out of its middle income trap by 2020, there stands a strong need for educated and talented workforce (Tyson, 2011: 90). For preventing brain drain and retaining talents, on January 1, 2011, Malaysia established ini tiative facilitator agency, Talent Cooperation1. This institution is a vital reality for Malaysian economy. World Bank, estimation shows that by 2010, 1,1 million Malaysians live abroad. 820.000 emigrants, who are 25 years of above older, 258.000 of them or 31 percent have tertiary education. Emigrating citizens with the tertiary education are considered as the subjects of "brain drain" (Harnoss, 2011: 117).

Indian case made its significant contribution to the literature by converting "brain drain" to "brain gain". While in 1960, there were just only 12.000 Indians in US, this number grew to the 450.000. Granted visas for employment purpose of Indians improved by the time. After 2000, as IT bubble burst in USA and security concerns of Indians after 9/11 terrorist attacks, reverse migration star ted. Also, efforts of Indian policymakers are worth to note here; the liberalization of the economy in 1990s encouraged FDI inflow, Overseas Citizenship of India program per-mit Indian emigrants to have all rights in India as permanent residents, except for the right to vote, tax breaks, the setting up special economic zones, improving digital infra structure in cities and developing Technology Parks (Chacko, 2007:133). Software Techno-logy Parks (STPs) provide infrastructure and tax exemptions for 5 years, for admitted companies. By 2006, there were 47 STPs in India (Chacko,2007:137).By 2012, this number was 52 (STPI, 2011-12: 10). Turkish case also reveal crucial and striking facts about skilled labor migration. 2000 US population census indicates that, 23 percent of Turkish emigrants hold MA degree and


7

43 percent of them already obtained BA degree. A study with the 1224 usable responses tried to reveal the reasons for the migration. Findings of the study shows that, highest parental educational attainment made the respondents to migrate easily, foreign language education perceived as an important advantage, marriage with foreign spouse delay the return, to postpone/delay/ shorten military service and prestige of study abroad are main reasons to stay abroad. Generally, bureaucracy, unsatisfactory income levels and lack of opportunities for advancing in occupation are the reasons hinder emig rants to return (Güngör and Tansel, 2008: 324, 332, 335).

Primary reasons for the Iranian brain drain are expressed as follows: economy cannot provide adequate jobs for educated work force, admiration to the western culture and only 10-12 percent of young applicants have chance to be admitted to the university due to the limited numbers of admissions. Even 1997 census data showed that there were 4000 Iranian professors who taught and conducted research in American universities. By 2004, it was stated that 500 Iranian American pro fessors employed by the top-notch universi ties in USA (Chaichian, 24,28).

One of the main concerns about this topic is that, the case when brain drain take place in terms of health and education professio-nals, sending country tend to be negatively affected. Because of supposed externalities in these professions, well-being of others will be in vulnerable situation too. That is, negative externalities will start to function for the rest of population. Other issue is that migration can bring about a phenomenon which is called as brain waste: Migrants start to work in an occupation which is not too much relevant for the skilled workforce. Besides, a data shows that, in 2008, 38 mig-rants out of 1936 Ph.D. holders in USA drive taxis. They are mainly from non-English speaking developing countries and poor quality of education system in these countries.

Last, but not least is, developing countries put huge amount of subsidy for educating labor force, financing is provided by tax payers` money. Once skilled workforce leave country, they do not contribute tax system anymore (Gibson and Mc.Kenzie, 2011: 111, 112). In African case, this topic is pretty bare. Prior to 2006, International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that 20.000 skilled Africans left every year for jobs in the West. Additionally, Africa spent 4 billion US dollars a year for recruiting Western professionals (Dodoo, Takyi and Mann, 2006: 156).

3. Migration and Brain Drain: Current situation in Azerbaijan

Many given research topics about developing countries usually face a hindering challenge; statistical data. Especially, when it is specific title, as the brain drain it gets painful. For instance, at the beginning of this paper, we cite some figures about the total world migration from OECD sources. Database on Immigrants in OECD (DIOC) and non-OECD countries requires a comprehensive study. This is why there is ongoing joint work in progress under the collaboration of OECD - World Bank and University of Oxford, International Migration Institute. Besides, even data regarding to OECD countries about 2010/2011 will be released by December 20132. Moreover, most recent data from the OECD sources which is relevant for explaining brain drain related issues in Azerbaijan are figures from circa 2000. Narrow migration flow is depicted in the Table 2 and Table 3. Also, Appendix A. provides overall migration flows.

Table 2. Connectedness Indicators

Azerbaijan 1990 2000 2010Immigrants (% of population) 5 4,3 2,9Emigrants (% of native population) 13,4 16,3 14Remittances (% of GDP) 0,1 5,2 2,7

Source: World Development Report 2013: 372.

Immigrants: Share of the population that is foreign born; in percent. Emigrants: Share of

Sarvar Gurbanov

8

the native population that is residing in another country or economy; in percent. The native population is computed as the total population minus immigrants plus emigrants.

Furthermore, most recent OECD data shows that, number of emigrant population in Azerbaijan during 2000 was 1035,9 thousands (DIOC-E, 2000:5). As it has been stated in the Appendix A, official data collected from The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan also suggests helpful hints on migration issues regarding Azerbaijan eco-nomy. For this study, we break this time series into three different periods. First period covers 1990 - 1994, which corresponds with the demise of Soviet Union and Karabakh war (that is invasion of Nagorny Karabakh by Armenia). Total number of immigrants is 211 thousands, total number of emigrants is 342 thousands. For the second period, which we can call this one as a transition period from central planning to the free market economy, it is pretty clear to observe the mitigation on migration flows. Between 1995 - 2004, number of immigrants are 43 thousands, and number of emigrants equaled to 93 thousands. And third period is regar-ding economic dimension, possesses the characteristics of increasing prosperity and standard of living. Economic success brought about plummeting outflow of emigrants. Post-oil boom period, which covers 2005 - 2012, differs from previous two, number of immigrants exceeded number of emigrants. Up to the official data, during this time frame, arrivals to the country for the permanent resident is 19 thousands, and departures from the country for permanent resident is just 14 thousands. To conclude during 1990 - 2012, arrivals to the country for permanent residence is 273 thousands, and departures from the country for permanent residents is 449 thousands.

Table 3. Azerbaijan: Movement of people across borders

2000 2010 2011Net Migration (thousands -sum) 53 International migrant 264

stock (thousands)Emigration rate oftertiary educated to OECD countries (% of tertiary educated population age 25+) 1,8

Personal Remittances ($ dollars - Received ) 1, 893

Source: World Development Indicators, http://wdi.worldbank.org/table/6.13 (01.10.2013)

World Bank source also shows similar figure regarding brain-drain; for 2000, emigration rate of tertiary-educated population is given as 2 % for Azerbaijan. For 2010, stock of emigrants is 1432,6 thousands (stock of im migrants is 263,9 thousands) and stock of emigrants as percentage of population is 16 %. For drawing conclusion about the migra tion trends, we can take a quick look at the 2008 comparisons. In 2008,inward remittances flows to Azerbaijan is 1554 million USD. In the same year, received Official Development Assistance equaled to 0,2 billion USD, total international reserves 6,5 billion USD and exports of goods and services 32 billion USD (WB, 2011).

OECD International Migration Outlook 2013 includes emigration data about Azerbaijan. In this outlook, only data is available about Azerbaijani emigrants in Russian Federation and Turkey related tables. To sum up, during 2001 - 2011, inflows of Azerbaijani migrants equaled to the 136 thousands for Russia. Also, during 2001-2011, 217677 former Azerbaijan citizens acquired nationality of Russian Federation. Same figure for Turkey is avai-lable only between 2002 - 2006; that is 7459 former Azerbaijani people acquired Turkish citizenship. Overall data concluded in Ap-pendix C.

Table 4. The Global Competitiveness Index, Brain Drain Indicator

Azerbaijan`s Ranking

Number of Countries Value Mean

2013 - 2014 64* 148 3,5 3,52012 - 2013 70 144 3,4** 3,52011 - 2012 78 142 3,2 3,52010 - 2011 94 139 2,8 3,52009 - 2010 63 133 3,3 3,52008 - 2009 53 134 3,5 3,5


9

Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report(s)., 2008 - 2009: 97, 446; 2009 - 2010: 79, 427; 2010 - 2011: 89, 451; 2011 - 2012: 107, 477; 2012 - 2013: 99, 474; 2013 - 2014: 115, 495.

*Country capacity to retain talent: Does your country retain talented people? [1 = the best and brightest leave to pursue opportunities in other countries; 7=the best and brightest stay and pursue opportunities in the country]| 2013 [The indicator previously named as Brain Drain in most recent year changed as given by single star sign, S.G.] **Does your country retain and attract talented people? [1 = no, the best and brightest normally leave to pursue opportunities in other countries; 7 = yes, there are many opportunities for talented people within the country] | 2011–12 weighted average.

The Global Competitiveness Index, which is given in the Table 4 is the most relevant data about the title of this study. Index is released by the World Economic Forum (W EF) each year. Executive Opinion Survey, which is the main questionnaire of the WEF, lets the economists to have computation of the results. Reports suggest that, number of observations which is collected from the Business Leaders from Azerbaijan ranges between 70 - 96, during 2008-2013 surveys. Prior to 2013 - 2014 report, name of the indi cator was brain drain. For stressing growing importance of talent shortages, WEF, split brain drain into two categories: country capacity to retain and attract talent. From this survey and indicator, we can conclude that, if the best indicator is 7, talented work force do not leave country, they are pretty satisfied with domestic job opportunities. For example, in 2013 - 2014 report, value of retain talent and attract talent is 5 and 5.8 respectively for UK. For Indonesia, numbers are 4.1 and 4.3, Italy, 2,7 and 2,4; South Korea, 4.1 and 4.4; Kyrgyz Republic, 1.9 and 1.9; for Norway, 5,6 and 5,1 and so on. As the mean is 3,5, it is pretty understandable that, Azerbaijan ranking is on the middle of this indicator.

Last but not least topic about the brain drain related issue is the potential impacts of ta-lented workforce emigration. As it has been concluded in Table 5, there is an increasing trend on Azerbaijani students studying abroad. Azerbaijan Ministry of Education announced that for the 2013-2014 education year, 766 students sent abroad under the ongoing "State Program on Education of Azerbaijani youth abroad for the years 2007 - 2015". Up to the Table 5. most recent data about the Azerbaijani students is about 2010. As we stated official data in the Introduction section, this figure matches with the data on Development Concept - 2020.

Table 5 includes pretty helpful data about the potential talented workforce of the Azerbaijan. In 2004, 4 thousand students went abroad, it was the beginning year of oil boom. Then Azerbaijan Government im plemented Study Abroad program by 2007. It is huge advantage and chance that, Azerbaijani policymakers have certain vision about the importance of education. Azerbaijan` s national position on accumulating human capital and talented workforce is reflected in a wise byword of President Ilham Aliyev: "I will convert the black gold into the human capital" (MINCOM, 2012).

As a result of national education abroad policy, by 2010, there is 2,5 times increase in outbound mobile students, that is 10959 students. Even though all these students did not accept government funding, but it is clear that, this program brings about vivid environment and create chance to explore opportunities for studying abroad. If we in-clude 2013 - 2014 education year admitted students, it means around 11 thousands Azerbaijani students study international universities. Calculations, which is available on Table 1. show that, students recorded high scores (scores between 500 - 700) in Azerbaijan national universities for last 9 years equaled to the 43554 and 10658 (score higher than 600). Put it differently, between 2004 - 2012, 10658 students in Azerbaijan

Sarvar Gurbanov

10

recorded highest entrance score; more than 600 points. During 2004 - 2010 number of

students studying abroad from Azerbaijan increased to the 10959.

Table 5. International Flow of Mobile Students at the Tertiary Level

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Global Education Digest, 2006: 132, 2009: 143, 2010: 177, 2011: 201, 2012: 135.

About the 2000 data, which is estimated in absolute and relative terms, it is stated that; "in absolute terms (number of educated emigrants), the largest countries are obviously strongly affected by the brain drain. ... In relative terms, (in proportion of the educated labor force), small countries are the most affected". In absolute figures, stock of skilled emigrants is given for the selected countries: Philippines, 1,1 million; India 1 million; Mexico 0, 922 million and Vietnam 0, 506 million. Generally, for-mer Soviet Union (FSU) countries recorded low levels of skilled emigration. Azerbaijan was also included in the category which is titled as lowest emigration rates for 2000, with 2 percent. On the same category rates for FSU countries is like that; Ukraine 3,5; Belarus 3,2; Georgia 1,6; Russian Federation 1,5; Kazakhstan 1,2; Uzbekistan 0,7; Tajikistan 0,4 (Docquier and Marfouk, 2006: 173,176, 177). In the Statistical Yearbook 2010 of The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan, it is stated that total labor force in the economy equals 4071595; workforce with tertiary education is 876475. If we add new 31071 graduates, in terms of tertiary education attainment, talented workforce will equal to 907546 by 2010. As it is stated in the Appendix B, total emigration figure for Azerbaijan in 2010, is 1 433 513. If 18151 out of 1 433 513 emigrants hold bachelor's

degree, brain drain rate is supposed to be 2 percent. If 27226 out of 1 433 513 emigrants leave with tertiary education, rate will in-crease to 3(Appendix D). Unfortunately, data about education attainment of emigrants is a challenging issue. Because of this reason, under current available statistical data, it is not possible to calculate brain drain rate for the Azerbaijan economy. Growing impor-tance of study abroad programs and increa sing international student mobility urges Azerbaijani policymakers to adopt new amendments on the State Statistical Com-mittee`s organization chart and data collection. Since State Statistical Committee does not publish data about the emigrants whom hold Bachelor`s degree, brain drain rate can only be assumed with the different scenarios as we stated on this study.

4. Conclusion

Besides government funding, increasing opportunities to study abroad made the outbound student mobility in Azerbaijan in crease dramatically. As Azerbaijan - 2020: Development Concept is a crucial official document, which refers new study abroad program covering 2015-2020, it is plausible to expect that, number of students from Azerbaijan will increase at the international universities. Literature review in this paper


11

suggested that tertiary educated citizens are the main subjects of the brain drain. Also, for Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey are two main players on the race for talented workforce. Turkey implements restrictive immigration policy. Considering increasing Azerbaijani student population to Turkey and Russia, it is required to adopt a national policy for the potential negative impacts of talented labor force, in case, if it will take place. Gradually, about 11 thousand students will graduate from international universities; because of this reason, there is urgency for national talent policy. Indian and Chinese successful experiences on retaining talents provide too much helpful hints on this topic. To conclude, in this study following sugges tions are stated as plausible ones; to foster entrepreneurship among nationals and to attract FDI, establishment of special econo-mic zones, improving digital infrastructure, as it is employment generating, determining manufacturing sector as the number one priority and providing cheaper housing for returnees and so on.

World Economic Forum, Executive Opinion Survey results show that, considering brain drain related issues, Azerbaijan is not totally vulnerable on retaining talents. Azerbaijan`s score on retaining and attracting talent does indicate average number, it means, there is enough room to improve this situation.

During the initial years of independence, transition period and collapse of the Soviet Union were the main reasons for the emig-ration. Today the structure of emigration has already changed. Students migrate for benefiting from the government funding and other scholarship resources. To depict worst case scenario: If 11000 stu dying abroad students do not return, it will make up just only 1,2 percent of total edu-cated labor force. It is urgent issue for Azerbaijan, to set up a migration recording system to follow the trend and record the

education attainment for emigrants. In this case, if we compare 1,2 percent with the 1.8 or 2 percent from 2000, 1 percent definitely will be misleading indicator. As we do not know absolute numbers and it is hard to make comparison. After knowing and explo-ring the absolute values about the emigrating workforce from the Azerbaijan economy, it will be bare to calculate accurate brain drain rate. Main policy implication of this study is that, new legal amendments are supposed to be adopted for the State Statistical Com-mittee data collection methods. *Dr. Sarvar Gurbanov teaches economics in Qafqaz University. He is the faculty member of the World Economy Department. Dr. Gurbanov is the author of the book, namely, "Dutch Disease: Theory and Country Cases", published in Is-tanbul. By January 2015, He will start his next mobility in the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, as a Fulbright Visiting Scholar. Financial support of The Nippon Foundation (TNF), Japan Turkey Central Asia Friendship Association (JATCAFA) is gratefully ack nowledged. 1 http://www.talentcorp.com.my/ (For detailed

information) 2 http://www.oecd.org/migration/mig/dioc.htm

(12.10.2013)

Appendix A: International Migration (thousand persons)

Years

Arrivals to the country

for permanentresidence

Departures from the

country for permanent residence

Net migration

1990 84,3 137,9 -53,6 1991 66,3 106,4 -40,1 1992 35,7 49,9 -14,2 1993 16,3 28,5 -12,2 1994 8,6 19,6 -11,0 Total

(1990 - 1994) 211,2 342,3

1995 6,2 16,0 -9,8 1996 5,8 13,2 -7,4 1997 7,5 15,7 -8,2 1998 5,4 10,5 -5,1 1999 4,8 9,1 -4,3 2000 4,4 9,9 -5,5 2001 2,6 7,3 -4,7 2002 1,2 4,3 -3,1 2003 2,5 3,8 -1,3 2004 2,4 2,8 -0,4

Sarvar Gurbanov

12

Total (1995 - 2004) 42,8 92,6

2005 2,0 2,9 -0,9 2006 2,2 2,6 -0,4 2007 2,0 3,1 -1,1 2008 3,6 2,5 1,1 2009 2,3 1,4 0,9 2010 2,2 0,8 1,4 2011 2,2 0,5 1,7 2012 2,2 0,2 2,0 Total

(2005 - 2012 ) 18,7 14,0

Source: The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan,

http://www.stat.gov.az/source/demoqraphy/indexen.php (01.10.2013).

Appendix B. Bilateral Estimates of Migrant Stocks by 2010. World Bank (WB)., 2011. The Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011 (see next page)

Source country (across) – Destination country (down) Azerbaijan (2010)

Argentina 99Australia 315Austria 196Belarus 3 792Belgium 111Canada 2 631Cyprus 33Czech Republic 186Denmark 188

Finland 69France 350Georgia 7 819Germany 23 265Greece 156Hungary 19Iran, Islamic Rep. 2 155Ireland 112Israel 35 101Italy 254Japan 48Kazakhstan 38 921Latvia 5 212Lithuania 849Netherlands 2 821New Zealand 59Norway 221Poland 358Russian Federation 866 843Slovak Republic 39Spain 569Sweden 541Switzerland 152Turkey 18 807Turkmenistan 7 895Ukraine 92 536United Kingdom 751United States 9 689TOTAL 1 433 513

Appendix C. Emigration Data about Azerbaijan

Source: OECD International Migration Outlook 2013: 329, 332, 391, 411, 414. http://www.oecd.org/els/mig/imo2013.htm (01.10.2013).

Appendix D. Absolute Numbers About Potential Brain Drain

Scenarios About Brain Drain 12009 Educated Labor Force in Azerbaijan (1) 876 4752New Graduates in 2010 (2) 31 071Total Educated Labor Force with Tertiary Education, 2010 (1+2) 907 5465 Total Emigration Figure, 2010 1 433 5136 Scenarios : If 2 percent of total educated labor force migrate 18 151

(absolute number of educated migrants) If 3 percent of total educated labor force migrate (absolute number of educated migrants) 27 2263New graduates in 2011 (7) 30 8124New graduates in 2012 (8) 35 128Total (7 + 8) 65 940

Sources: 1The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Statistical Yearbook 2010. Table No. 3. 13. 2,3,4: 2,3,4 The State Statistical Committee of the Re-


13

public of Azerbaijan http://www.stat.gov.az/source/ education/indexen.php (18.10.2013). 5 World Bank (WB)., 2011. The Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011, Migration and Remittances Unit. www.world bank.org/prospects/migrationandremittances (13.10. 2013). 6Author`s own calculations

REFERENCES

1. Azerbaijan 2020: Look into the Future: Develop ment Concept, http://www.president.az/files/fut ure_az.pdf (October 6, 2013)

2. Best, Marina Rose., 2013. "Toward a new immig-ration policy: Fulfilling the Need for Labor and the Rise of the Creative Class in Turkey", Econo mic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey, Sep-tember, N201335, 1 - 8.

3. Chaichian, Mohammad A., 2012. The new phase of globalization and brain drain: Migration of educated and skilled Iranians to the United States. International Journal of Social Economics, 39 (1/2): 18 - 38.

4. Chacko, Elizabeth., 2007. "From brain drain to brain gain: reverse migration to Bangalore and Hyderabad, India`s globalizing high tech cities", GeoJournal, 68: 131 - 140.

5. Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan (CBAR)., (2013), Statistical Bulletin, 7 (161).

6. Database on Immigrants in OECD and non-OECD countries, (DIOC-E), 2000.

7. Docquier, Frederic and Marfouk, Abdeslam., 2006. International Migration by Education Attainment. 1990 -2000. in [International Migration, Remittan ces and The Brain Drain (Editors: Çağlar Özden and Maurice Schiff), 151 - 199. World Bank & Palgrave Macmillan].

8. Dodoo, F.Nii- Amoo; Takyi, Baffour K, and Mann, Jesse R., 2006. "On the Brain Drain of Africans to America: Some Methodological Observations". Perspectives on Global Development and Tech nology, 5(3): 155 - 162.

9. Gibson John and McKenzie David., 2011. "Eight Questions about Brain Drain". Journal of Econo-mic Perspectives, 25 (3): 107 - 128.

10. Güneş, Erdem., 2013. "Turkey adopts law to protect foreigners` rights", Hürriyet Daily News, April 19.

11. Güngör, Nil Demet and Tansel, Aysıt., 2008. "Brain Drain from Turkey: the case of professionals ab-road", International Journal of Manpower, 29 (4): 323 - 347.

12. Harnoss, Johann Daniel., 2011. "Economic Costs of the Malaysian Brain Drain: Implications from

and Endogenous Growth Model", Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, 48 (2): 117 - 130.

13. Ministry of Communications and Information Technologies of the Republic of Azerbaijan (MI NCOM), President Ilham Aliyev receives ITU Secretary General

14. http://www.mincom.gov.az/media-en/news-2/de tails/77 (07.11.2012).

15. OECD, International Migration Outlook 2013, http://www.oecd.org/els/mig/imo2013.htm (01. 10.2013).

16. Software Technology Parks of India, Annual Re-port 2011 - 2012.

17. The Ministry of Education of the Republic of Azerbaijan, http://edu.gov.az/view.php?lang= az&menu=9&id=7386 (01.10.2013)

18. The State Students Admission Commission (SSAC) of the Republic of Azerbaijan Annual Reports, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004.

19. The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Migration, Table No. 7.1.

20. hhttp://www.stat.gov.az/source/demoqraphy/indexen.php (01.10.2013).

21. The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Statistical Yearbook 2010. Table No. 3.13.

22. The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Education, Table No. 1.8.13.

23. http://www.stat.gov.az/source/education/indexen.php (16.10.2013).

24. Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), http://www. turkstat.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist, (Oc tober 6, 2013).

25. Tyson, Adam D., 2011. "Editor`s Introduction: The Brain Drain Cycle in Malaysia: Rethinking Migration, Diaspora and Talent", Malaysian Jour-nal of Economic Studies, 48 (2) : 85 - 92.

26. UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Global Education Digest, Reports; 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012.

27. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division & OECD., (2013) World Migration in Figures.

28. World Bank, World Development Indicators, http://wdi.worldbank.org/table/6.13 (01.10.2013)

29. World Economic Forum, The Global Competiti-veness Report(s)., 2008 - 2009; 2009 - 2010; 2010 – 2011; 2011 - 2012; 2012 - 2013; 2013 - 2014.

30. World Bank (WB)., 2011. The Migration and Re-mittances Factbook 2011, Migration and Remit-tances Unit. www.worldbank.org/prospects/mig rationandremittances (13.10.2013).

Migration and Brain Drain in Azerbaijan

Documents

Transcript of Migration and Brain Drain in Azerbaijan