Manuel BarangeDirector Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy and Resources Division, FAOManuel.barange@fao.org

@Manu_FAO

• Climate change adaptation of the Eastern Caribbean Fisheries Sector Project (CC4FISH) –USD5.5m

• Strengthening the adaptive capacity to climate change in the fisheries and aquaculture sector of Chile – USD2.5m

• Enhancing climate change resilience in the BenguelaCurrent fisheries system –USD4.7m

• Building Climate Change Resilience in the Fisheries Sector in Malawi – USD5.4m

• FishAdapt: Strengthening the adaptive capacity and resilience of fisheries and aquaculture-dependent livelihoods in Myanmar

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)• 2015 Paris Agreement includes a long-term

adaptation goal, in a manner that does not threaten food production, alongside mitigation goals

• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are at the heart of the Paris Agreement and detailed the efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

• 155 NDCs submitted (Sept ‘17)

• 78 countries include Fisheries and Aquaculture in their adaptation strategies (incl. the 23 in Asia and 23 in Africa where poverty is more prevalent)

• The FAO Technical Paper 627 provides up-to-date information on the disaggregated impacts of climate change in the sector, to facilitate NDC implementation by countries and the development of National Adaptation Plans

Inland Fisheries

Projection models

Cross-sectorinteractions

Short-term Impacts

Extreme Events/Disasters

Animal disease/Food safety

Long-term Impacts

Adaptation Mitigation

Approach and Structure

Marine Fisheries

Aquaculture

Marine Capture Fisheries

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Change of Catch Potential by 2050 (model – RCP2.6 emissions)

Regional Assessments

Projection Models for

EEZs

Impacts on global fish catch potential = (-) 2.8-5.3% (Low emission) or (-) 7.0-12.1 (High emission) by 2050 Impacts largely negative but also some positives – large geographical differences Tropical regions (particularly Pacific SIDS) are worse affected // High latitudes more positively affected Regional impact assessments give significant nuance to guide responses A large number of EEZs will see new transboundary stocks requiring institutional and management changes Management response crucial to minimize threats and maximize opportunities

Marine Capture Fisheries

PRESENTFUTURE

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Model-based Maximum Catch potential (MCP)

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Realized Catch (RC)

∆MCP

Marine Capture Fisheries

PRESENTFUTURE

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Model-based Maximum Catch potential (MCP)

Fish

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RCf

“It is more appropriate to see changes in ocean productivity as an upper limit to fish catch potential, but

whether realized catch increases or decreases from present levels depends more on management decisions

now and in the future than on climate change alone.” Barange 2019. ICES J. Mar. Sci. (in press)

Realized Catch (RC)

Countries considering aquaculture in their Nationally Determined Contributions are mostly located in the developing countries, especially in Africa – They require the most support

Unfavorable impacts predominate in developing countries, but adaptation measures are available. Vulnerability is directly associated with governance, from national to farm level. Vulnerability reduction depends on broader adaptation measures beyond the aquaculture sector. Higher risk countries:

Viet Nam, Ecuador, Egypt, Thailand (Brackish); Norway, Chile (Marine)

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Disasters and Extreme Events

Climate-related disasters now account for over 80 percent of all disaster events.

Sectors that are markedly influenced by climate, such as fisheries and aquaculture, are facing substantial threats from extreme events

A warmer climate will change the frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and timing of extreme events

Need to improve post-disaster damage and loss assessments for the fisheries and aquaculture sector, in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

FAO. 2018. The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security. Rome. 143 pp

International / National / Regional / Watershed / Management Area

Adaptation is placed and context based Adaptation should be viewed as an on-going and iterative process Evaluations of success are necessary and often missing from adaptation studies Transboundary issues need to be considered when developing an adaptation strategy Coordination of measures important to ensure adaptation options of neighbouring countries are unaffected

Adaptation Toolbox

Institutional Adaptation Livelihoods Adaptation Risk Reduction and Resilience

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• Public investments• Climate Change adaptation policies and plans include F&A• Incentives for product value addition and market development• Remove harmful incentives• Address poverty and food insecurity which limits adaptation

• Flexible access rights• Dispute settlement arrangements• Adaptive legal rules• Regulatory tools (e.g. adaptive control of pressure)

• Stakeholder engagement• Awareness and capacity to integrate CC in research/ policy/management• Cooperation for transboundary issues (incl. fleet movements)

• Adaptive fisheries management• Integrate climate change in ICZM• Flexible territorial and seasonal user rights• Protection of critical habitats• Water management for inland resources

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• Diversification markets/ fish products• Improvement of post-harvest techniques• Improvement of fish quality: ecolabelling, loss and waste,… • Enable seasonal migrations (to follow fish)• Diversity species exploited, gear• R+D to assist adaptation (e.g. satellite imagery)

• Support to switch farming/ fishing seasonally• Exit strategies from sector

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• Risk insurance• Personal savings• Social protection• Financial security

• Extreme weather forecasting• Extreme warning communication and response• Monitoring trends, threats and opportunities

• Risk assessment• Safety at sea• Natural barriers• Infrastructure resilience• Address underlying poverty and hunger issues

• Post-disaster recovery• Rehabilitation of ecosystems• Compensation schemes

A Blueprint for: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) National Adaptation Plans Green Climate Fund Projects Global Environmental Facility Field Programmes Country advice and support Unique source of Sector-based information

New FAO Adaptation to Climate Change in F&A case studies