Manuel BarangeDirector Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy and Resources Division, [email protected]
@Manu_FAO
• Climate change adaptation of the Eastern Caribbean Fisheries Sector Project (CC4FISH) –USD5.5m
• Strengthening the adaptive capacity to climate change in the fisheries and aquaculture sector of Chile – USD2.5m
• Enhancing climate change resilience in the BenguelaCurrent fisheries system –USD4.7m
• Building Climate Change Resilience in the Fisheries Sector in Malawi – USD5.4m
• FishAdapt: Strengthening the adaptive capacity and resilience of fisheries and aquaculture-dependent livelihoods in Myanmar
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)• 2015 Paris Agreement includes a long-term
adaptation goal, in a manner that does not threaten food production, alongside mitigation goals
• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are at the heart of the Paris Agreement and detailed the efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
• 155 NDCs submitted (Sept ‘17)
• 78 countries include Fisheries and Aquaculture in their adaptation strategies (incl. the 23 in Asia and 23 in Africa where poverty is more prevalent)
• The FAO Technical Paper 627 provides up-to-date information on the disaggregated impacts of climate change in the sector, to facilitate NDC implementation by countries and the development of National Adaptation Plans
Inland Fisheries
Projection models
Cross-sectorinteractions
Short-term Impacts
Extreme Events/Disasters
Animal disease/Food safety
Long-term Impacts
Adaptation Mitigation
Approach and Structure
Marine Fisheries
Aquaculture
Marine Capture Fisheries
(>5
% G
row
th)
(>2
0%
Dec
line
)
…/…
Change of Catch Potential by 2050 (model – RCP2.6 emissions)
Regional Assessments
Projection Models for
EEZs
Impacts on global fish catch potential = (-) 2.8-5.3% (Low emission) or (-) 7.0-12.1 (High emission) by 2050 Impacts largely negative but also some positives – large geographical differences Tropical regions (particularly Pacific SIDS) are worse affected // High latitudes more positively affected Regional impact assessments give significant nuance to guide responses A large number of EEZs will see new transboundary stocks requiring institutional and management changes Management response crucial to minimize threats and maximize opportunities
Marine Capture Fisheries
PRESENTFUTURE
PROJECTION
Model-based Maximum Catch potential (MCP)
Fish
erie
s C
atch
Time
∆MCP
Realized Catch (RC)
∆MCP
Marine Capture Fisheries
PRESENTFUTURE
PROJECTION
Model-based Maximum Catch potential (MCP)
Fish
erie
s C
atch
Time
∆MCP
RCf
“It is more appropriate to see changes in ocean productivity as an upper limit to fish catch potential, but
whether realized catch increases or decreases from present levels depends more on management decisions
now and in the future than on climate change alone.” Barange 2019. ICES J. Mar. Sci. (in press)
Realized Catch (RC)
Countries considering aquaculture in their Nationally Determined Contributions are mostly located in the developing countries, especially in Africa – They require the most support
Unfavorable impacts predominate in developing countries, but adaptation measures are available. Vulnerability is directly associated with governance, from national to farm level. Vulnerability reduction depends on broader adaptation measures beyond the aquaculture sector. Higher risk countries:
Viet Nam, Ecuador, Egypt, Thailand (Brackish); Norway, Chile (Marine)
© A
nto
n
Aquaculture
© A
nto
n
Brackish water
Marine
Disasters and Extreme Events
Climate-related disasters now account for over 80 percent of all disaster events.
Sectors that are markedly influenced by climate, such as fisheries and aquaculture, are facing substantial threats from extreme events
A warmer climate will change the frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and timing of extreme events
Need to improve post-disaster damage and loss assessments for the fisheries and aquaculture sector, in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
FAO. 2018. The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security. Rome. 143 pp
International / National / Regional / Watershed / Management Area
Adaptation is placed and context based Adaptation should be viewed as an on-going and iterative process Evaluations of success are necessary and often missing from adaptation studies Transboundary issues need to be considered when developing an adaptation strategy Coordination of measures important to ensure adaptation options of neighbouring countries are unaffected
Adaptation Toolbox
Institutional Adaptation Livelihoods Adaptation Risk Reduction and Resilience
Adaptation ToolboxIn
sti
tuti
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Ad
ap
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Pu
blic
Po
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Fram
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Inst
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Fr
amew
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• Public investments• Climate Change adaptation policies and plans include F&A• Incentives for product value addition and market development• Remove harmful incentives• Address poverty and food insecurity which limits adaptation
• Flexible access rights• Dispute settlement arrangements• Adaptive legal rules• Regulatory tools (e.g. adaptive control of pressure)
• Stakeholder engagement• Awareness and capacity to integrate CC in research/ policy/management• Cooperation for transboundary issues (incl. fleet movements)
• Adaptive fisheries management• Integrate climate change in ICZM• Flexible territorial and seasonal user rights• Protection of critical habitats• Water management for inland resources
Adaptation ToolboxLiv
elih
oo
ds
Ad
ap
tati
on
Wit
hin
Sec
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Bet
wee
n S
ecto
rs
• Diversification markets/ fish products• Improvement of post-harvest techniques• Improvement of fish quality: ecolabelling, loss and waste,… • Enable seasonal migrations (to follow fish)• Diversity species exploited, gear• R+D to assist adaptation (e.g. satellite imagery)
• Support to switch farming/ fishing seasonally• Exit strategies from sector
Adaptation ToolboxR
isk
Re
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on
an
d R
esilie
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Ris
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g an
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Tran
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Earl
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Ris
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edu
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rep
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s an
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• Risk insurance• Personal savings• Social protection• Financial security
• Extreme weather forecasting• Extreme warning communication and response• Monitoring trends, threats and opportunities
• Risk assessment• Safety at sea• Natural barriers• Infrastructure resilience• Address underlying poverty and hunger issues
• Post-disaster recovery• Rehabilitation of ecosystems• Compensation schemes
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