Longitudinal outcomes of students in the 2008 commencing cohort with early academic risk

Longitudinal outcomes of students in the 2008

commencing cohort with early academic risk

(DRAFT INTERNAL REPORT)

October 2011

Dr Jane Rienks

Student Centre, University of Tasmania

Longitudinal outcomes of students with early academic risk

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 4

Longitudinal outcomes of students in the 2008 commencing cohort who had early academic risk ............ 6

Background ................................................................................................................................................ 6

Cohort composition ................................................................................................................................... 6

Approach ................................................................................................................................................... 7

Prevalence of failure .................................................................................................................................. 8

Figure 1. Grade point average of students in the commencing semester 2008 .............................. 8

Completion ................................................................................................................................................ 8

Table 1. Completion, continuation or departure of students by commencing semester and

commencing year GPA ...................................................................................................................... 9

Departure .................................................................................................................................................. 9

Table 2. Timing of last enrolment of all departing students by commencing semester GPA ........ 10

Commencing semester result and future performance .......................................................................... 10

Commencing result and overall failure in students with substantial load .......................................... 11

Table 3. Commencing semester GPA by proportion of load failed for students studying over two

or three years who took a total of 150 load points or more ........................................................... 12

Commencing result and failure of 50% of load in students with substantial load .............................. 12

Table 4. Commencing semester GPA by years in which failed 50% or more of load for students

studying over two or three years who took a total of 150 load points or more ............................. 13

Table 5. Commencing semester GPA by years with a failing GPA for students studying over two or

three years who took a total of 150 load points or more ............................................................... 14

The effects of commencing semester result and result trajectory on completion/continuing in study

............................................................................................................................................................. 14

Table 6. Commencing semester GPA by change in GPA and final semester GPA for students who

took a total of 150 load points or more, and 100 load points or more .......................................... 15

Student background ................................................................................................................................ 16

Table 7. Sex by commencing semester GPA ................................................................................... 16

Table 8. Commencing semester GPA by age in 2008 ..................................................................... 16

Table 9. Commencing semester GPA by total administrative risk factors ..................................... 17

Table 10. Commencing semester GPA by ITI score ........................................................................ 17

Table 11. Commencing semester GPA by admissions qualification category (QC) ........................ 18

Table 12. Commencing semester GPA by citizenship ..................................................................... 19

Postscript on student departure: students who fully withdraw ............................................................ 19


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Table 13. Distributions of students with and without results by sex ............................................. 19

Table 14. Distributions of students with and without results by age group .................................. 20

Table 15. Distributions of students with and without results by number of administrative risk

factors .............................................................................................................................................. 20

Table 16. Distributions of students with and without results by ITI score ..................................... 20

Table 17. Distributions of students with and without results by admissions qualification category

(QC) .................................................................................................................................................. 21

Table 18. Distributions of students with and without results by citizenship category .................. 21

Discussion ................................................................................................................................................ 21

Appendices .......................................................................................................................................... 24

Appendix 1. Final outcomes of students who fail early and pass early.......................................... 25

Appendix 2. Commencing semester GPA by proportion of load failed of all students .................. 25

Appendix 3. Age by qualification category of students with a result in semester1/3 of 2008 ...... 26

Appendix 4. ITI score and final outcomes of all students in commencing 2008 cohort ................ 26


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Executive Summary

Early failure is a known attrition risk in a student’s first year at university and is of increased importance

with the federal government’s push to further widen access and increase participation of so-called ‘non-

traditional’ entrants. This study looks at the longitudinal outcomes of students who fail or pass their

commencing semester, in order to determine whether early failure is a risk for voluntary or potentially

involuntary departure, and if so, when this occurs. It will also look whether early failure is a predictor of

continuing academic difficulties, or whether students who fail early can ‘recover’. It will examine

whether improvements or drops in academic achievement for a student over time is associated with

whether they stay or leave. Finally, it will also determine whether a range of student demographic and

admissions characteristics differs for students achieving at different levels in their commencing semester

at UTAS. The cohort being studied is of those students who began an undergraduate bachelors or

associate degree in 2008. This cohort has been the subject of earlier studies reporting whether

administrative factors indicate potential risk over the short- and longer-term.

Failure

Of 3904 students with a result in summer/semester 1 of 2008, 958 (24.5%) obtained a failing

GPA for the semester. Of the 516 badly-failing students (GPA<2), 356 students (69%) actually

had a GPA of zero

Completion

Continuing students who fail the commencing semester are half as likely to complete in three

years as students who passed providing their GPA was two or more; for badly failing students

(GPA<2) it was a seventh, and these students probably had credit for prior study

Departure (voluntary or involuntary)

Failing badly (GPA<2) in the commencing semester is linked to very high (81%) and early

departure rates. Almost half of those who leave do so at the end of their first semester, and 70%

leave by the end of the first year.

A half of students who fail less badly (2≤GPA<4) leave—this is more than double the rate of

students who pass the commencing semester. Departures are highest in the first year and are

higher in semester two than semester one in most years. The rate of departure in the first year

is similar to those of passing students—but the reasons for departure probably differ

Ongoing or subsequent difficulties are associated with late departure. In students who have

taken at least 150 points of load, figures for load failed, failing half or more or load in a year, and

failing GPAs are worse for departing students than those of continuing students irrespective of

the commencing semester GPA

Later academic achievement in students who have taken at least 150 points of load

Failing at least 50% of load in a year, or obtaining a failing GPA over a year, is more likely to

happen, and happen more often, to students who fail their commencing semester, especially if

they fail badly. For some students, failing some units is an ongoing and permanent feature of

their study

Doing better—showing an improvement in GPA from the commencing semester to the last

calendar year in study—is associated with higher retention, even if the student do not achieve an

overall pass. If the final year GPA is a pass, retention is even better


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Students who pass initially but do worse later are more likely to leave. Students who pass their

commencing semester, but fail their final year show diminished retention. It is not known

whether the drop in academic grades reflects genuine academic difficulties, personal difficulties

that are adversely affecting study, or disengagement prior to leaving

Background factors linked to commencing semester result

All background factors investigated are significantly different for students with different

commencing semester GPAs. These factors are gender, age, citizenship category, ITI score, ,

number of administrative risk factors, and qualification category

Males are more likely to do badly in their commencing semester than females

The relationship between age and commencing semester result is complex, partly due to links

between certain admissions categories based on prior education and age. However, a clear

pattern is that badly failing students increasingly dominate the failing group as age increases.

The age groups that do worst in their commencing semester are students aged 22-25 years and

26-30 years. These two groups have the highest proportions of both overall failures and bad

failures in the commencing semester

The proportion of students who badly fail their commencing semester increases dramatically as

the number of administrative risk factors increases, from 12% in students with no risk factors to

57% in students with three or more.

Prior high school achievement is associated with commencing semester result. The higher the ITI

score the more likely the student will pass. Students with an ITI score of 81 or more rarely fail

the commencing semester, unlike students with lower scores.

Badly failing the commencing semester is relatively common in interstate year 12 students,

those with TAFE or mature age entry, and students with partial previous higher education.

Background factors linked to withdrawing before gaining any results

There are 566 early or full withdrawers—students who leave without receiving an academic

result and who have withdrawn without penalty

All background factors are significantly different for students who leave without completing any

units

These withdrawers are slightly more likely to be female and to be students over 25 years of age

In general, having administrative risk factors increases the likelihood of this form of withdrawal

relative to the remainder of the cohort, and the likelihood increases as the number of risk factors

increases

Only about 30% of students who leave without results have an ITI score. In general, less than

10% of the student in each score band leaves without results, and although the proportion tends

to drop as score increases, the likelihood of withdrawing is not dramatically influenced by score

Interstate Year 12 entrants and students with completed prior higher education are the most

likely to leave early without results. Some of these cases may represent a change of mind about

studying at all or the acceptance of an offer from another institution. Students without a QC

category (mostly full-fee paying overseas students), Tasmanian Year 12 entrants and students

who have partial prior higher education are the least likely to do so

Australian permanent residents are the most likely (41%) to leave before gaining results and full-

fee paying overseas students are the least likely (2%) to do so.


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Longitudinal outcomes of students in the 2008 commencing cohort who had

early academic risk

Background

Early failure is a known attrition risk at university, and it is one that is becoming progressively more

important as the widening participation agenda increases the diversity of the undergraduate student

body. Students who fail early in their tertiary studies are at increased risk of leaving, either by their own

choice or because they are excluded via the University’s academic review procedures. In either case,

they represent a non-completion and the investment of the student in his or her study and that of the

university into the student has potentially come to nothing. Even worse, early failure is a negative

experience which may have a damaging flow-on effect on the aspirations towards tertiary study of the

children, family and friends of these students. In the relatively small and rural Tasmanian population the

experience of early failure could ‘poison the well’ with negative implications for the University in terms

of domestic admissions and the transformation of five-star access into completions. While this study

does not treat in depth the pathways that students have taken to come to university, the results will be

relevant to structuring pathways to better suit students from diverse backgrounds. They will also be

useful if academic review procedures are re-designed to direct students into appropriate pathways and

so potentially promote the eventual success of students who experience early difficulties.

This study looks at the prevalence of early failure and specifically focuses on students who fail their

commencing semester, distinguishing two groups on the basis of how badly they have failed. The study

compares their outcomes with those of students who achieved an overall pass in the commencing

semester. The aim is to establish how common early failure is, if it does lead to increased attrition over a

three year time frame, and to what extent early failure is linked to academic difficulties throughout a

student’s time at university. By looking at when attrition occurs it will also establish how much time and

opportunity the University has to intervene to re-direct and assist students in a way that supports their

aspirations to gain a tertiary qualification.

Cohort composition

An earlier study of the 2008 cohort (Rienks & Taylor, 20091) used the entire undergraduate commencing

cohort based on enrolment in the summer semester or first semester of that year. In addition to new

students this cohort potentially included existing students starting a new course (commencing-old

students), UTAS College Program students, and existing students transferring from an old course

structure to the equivalent course in a new course structure. Commencing-new (at UTAS for the first

time) students would have included both ‘first year’ students and students articulating from other

institutions with prior credit, and who were therefore doing units at higher and perhaps mixed, levels.

While possibly desirable to identify and potentially remove students who move to a new course

structure, or who change to a related course (e.g., BEc to BBus) these are not always readily identifiable

by the level of units being taken because some undergraduate courses articulate from prior study and

start with level 2 or level 4 units.

1 Rienks, J. & Taylor, S. (2009). Attrition and academic performance of students identified as at-risk using administrative data

alone. Refereed paper. 12th

Pacific Rim First Year in Higher Education Conference, 2009, 29 June-1 July, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.


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In the current study and a recent report2, the selection methods use the original cohort as a starting

point, and then remove all students whose enrolment in 2008 was taken entirely under the UTAS College

program or the Police Studies program, consisted solely of UPP or level 0 units, or included units under a

postgraduate or honours course code. In essence, students are only included if they had a non-program

enrolment under either an associate degree or undergraduate bachelors degree. Both commencing-new

students and commencing-old students are included.

Although commencing old students are included, new students and ‘first year’ students nevertheless still

dominate the cohort. New students make up 70% of the cohort with new students doing solely level one

units comprising nearly half (47%), and new students taking at least a half load of level one units in 2008

comprising over half (60%) of the total cohort. In total, old and new students doing all level one units

make up 59% of the cohort, and students with at least half of their load consisting of level one units

account for over three quarters (78%) of the cohort. Because not all courses start with first year (level

one) units, these figures are underestimates of the proportion of the cohort in the first year of study in

their course.

A final point to note is that this study is of the entire commencing cohort across all faculties and schools.

The data has been handled in order to provide a broad view of outcomes across the wider student body

irrespective of the faculty and course make-up of the cohort. The summary histories developed for these

students cover their entire enrolment over 2008-2010 and are therefore in general not suitable for

answering questions about individual faculty, course or school cohorts.

Approach

This study will compare the outcomes of students who fail in the commencing semester with those of

students who achieve an overall pass. Most results will be presented for three groups: students with a

commencing (combined summer and semester 1 2008) semester GPA of less than 2, from 2 to less than

4, and 4 or more. For the majority of students this initial GPA is based on at least 25% of load points

(over 90% of failing students) or at least 50% of load points (67% of failing students).

This study presents results on how many of each group have subsequently completed a qualification,

how many are still studying , how many have left, and when they left. All students with an enrolment

after census date in semester 1, 2011 are considered to be continuing. However, it is important to

remember that some students have left and returned to study in the years since 2008, and that some of

these may have completed few units during possibly short duration in study.

The study also looks at grade point average (GPA) over several time frames to see if subsequent

academic achievement is related to commencing semester achievement. It will also see if students who

fail early are able to recover, or whether there is evidence of long-term and persistent academic

difficulties. This report also describes the make-up of failing students in terms of how they qualified for

university admission, their year 12 performance (if available) and their known risk profile.

In some programs, such as medicine, study in a semester is under a single 50% unit in the first two years

and progression is not possible if the semester is failed. This means that failing a semester adds an

additional year to the program, and such students will also have a GPA of zero for the semester. The

2 Rienks, J.H. 2011. Longitudinal outcomes of potentially at-risk student groups in the 2008 commencing undergraduate cohort.

Draft report to Student Transition and Retention Sub-Comittee, University of Tasmania, September 2011.


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number of such students is, however, small (3 out of 125 students failed CAM101 in 2008) so the overall

trend is determined by students in other programs.

A number of students left before census date in semester 1, but returned to study in semester 2. This

group is excluded from most results as they lack this commencing semester GPA. This means that

students in the cohort reported on here have all started study at the same time so their subsequent

histories are more directly comparable.

Prevalence of failure

In total a quarter of the almost 4000 students with a result for summer/semester 1 of 2008 failed, with

more students failing badly than failing less badly (Figure 1). In fact, 375 of the 516 students who failed

badly actually received a GPA of zero. While some of these students may not have completed or even

attempted the units in which they were enrolled, some will have genuinely attempted and failed all of

them. Since some students with an overall pass may have failed one unit, the prevalence of unit failure

will be somewhat higher than the prevalence of failing GPAs. What these results show is that in the

commencing semester, a quarter of commencing students are at academic risk and over a tenth (13%)

are at severe risk. The total number with academic risk is 958 of the 3904 students.

Figure 1. Grade point average of students in the commencing semester 2008

Completion

Almost none of the bad fail group completed a qualification in three years and just over a tenth of other

failing students did so (Table 1, see Appendix 1 for a more detailed breakdown). The large differences

seen is partly due to the high departure rates of failing students, and adjusted completion rates show

that continuing students who fail their commencing semester are about seventh (if badly failed) or a half

as likely to complete compared with students who passed. This difference is expected—students who

fail units will almost certainly have to extend their study duration beyond three years (for bachelor

degrees). To subsequently complete in three years would require full-time study, no further failures and

catching up on all failed units by taking units offered over spring, summer, or winter semesters.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Bad fail Fail Pass Credit Distinction HighDistinction

Per

cen

tage

of

stu

den

ts

Grade point average

N=3904


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While students who fail units will naturally be less likely to complete over three years, another factor

that influences completion is credit for prior study. Data on credit for the cohort is not available, but the

commencing status of students in 2008 is known. Students who were commencing-old in 2008 are

indeed more likely to have completed since then than students who were commencing new. This is true

both overall and when students are separated into those who failed their commencing-semester (11.6%

commencing old graduated vs. 3.8% commencing new graduated, Χ2=19.37, 1df, p<0.0001, N=958) and

those who passed (48.7% commencing old graduated vs. 30.6% commencing new graduated, Χ2=88.4,

1df, p<0.0001, N=2946)3. Commencing old students are more likely to complete a qualification over the

three years than commencing new students, irrespective of their commencing semester result, which

suggests that credit accounts for at least some of the difference.

Table 1. Completion, continuation or departure of students by commencing semester and

commencing year GPA

Early result

Percentage of students (%)

Number of

students

% of cohort

Total graduated

and/or continuing

Total left without

completing

Total graduated

Graduated/ continuing

students who have

graduated

Commencing semester result1

GPA<2 19.4 80.6 1.4 7.0 516 13.2

2≤GPA<4 49.3 50.7 11.5 23.4 442 11.3

GPA≥4 77.1 23.0 36.2 46.9 2946 75.5

Total students 2588 1316 1123 39043

Commencing year result2

GPA<2 18.1 81.9 1.3 7.3 609 15.3

2≤GPA<4 52.3 47.7 9.0 17.2 621 15.6

GPA≥4 79.6 20.4 38.7 48.6 2749 69.1

Total students 2623 1356 1127 39793

1 Continuing or completed vs. not completing Χ2=717.8, 2df, p<0.0001

2 Continuing or completed vs. not completing Χ2=900.7, 2df, p<0.0001

3 The difference in numbers is because some students who departed pre-census in semester 1 returned in semester 2.

Departure

The majority (81%) of students who fail very badly in the commencing semester leave without

completing a qualification as do half of students who failed less badly (Table 1). These departure rates

are approximately two to four times the rate observed in students who pass their commencing semester.

Almost half of badly failing students do not enrol again after their first semester, and 70% do not enrol

again after the first year (Table 2). The remaining student departures are spread over the subsequent

semesters with a higher proportion leaving in 2009 than in 2010. In comparison, departures of students

who fail their commencing semester less badly, or who pass, are fairly evenly spread with the exception

of a peak in loss in semester 2, 2008. In both groups there is a consistent trend for semester 2

departures to exceed semester 1 departures in all years. It is likely that the high departure of passing

3 The proportion of commencing old students ranges between 27% and 31% and does not differ significantly between the

commencing GPA groups.


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students in semester 2 in 2008 includes those moving to other institutions, something that is unlikely to

apply to the students who failed.

The proportion of students who departed in or after the first year is similar in students who passed and

students who failed, but did not fail badly—both about 46%. However, the reasons for leaving are likely

to be quite different, and changing institutions is likely to be a factor in the group who passed their

commencing semester and/or their commencing year. A further point to note is that although students

in the group who passed are the least likely to leave, in strict numbers term they dominate, forming a

half of all departed students (Table 2).

How badly students fail in the commencing semester is related to how early they leave. Students who

fail but who pass some units (GPA 2 and above) are only half as likely to leave immediately after

semester 1 as students who failed badly. However, almost half of departing students do leave before

2009. These results re-affirm that the first semester and the first year are critical times for losing

students, with 709 students (53.9% of the total who leave) leaving by the end of the first year.

Furthermore, these are critical times for losing students who are struggling since it is likely that few of

the departures of failing students are to other institutions, and so these losses represent a potential loss

from the tertiary education sector as a whole.

Table 2. Timing of last enrolment of all departing students by commencing semester GPA

Commencing semester result

Proportion of students whose final enrolment was in: Number

of students

Proportion of total

(%) 2008 2009 2010

Sem1 Sem2 Sem1 Sem2 Sem1 Sem1

GPA<2 42.6 27.4 9.6 8.9 5.8 5.8 416 31.6

2≤GPA<4 16.1 29.9 8.5 18.8 10.7 16.1 224 17.0

GPA≥4 19.8 26.8 12.0 15.7 9.2 16.6 676 51.4

Total students 347 362 140 185 110 172 1316 100.0

Percentage of total 26.4 27.5 10.6 14.1 8.4 13.1

Χ2=107.3, 10df, p<0.0001, GPA by time of last enrolment.

Commencing semester result and future performance

A second look at the results described above suggests that progress may not be uniformly good in

students who seem to be progressing satisfactorily early in their studies. Table 1 (above) gives results for

students based on the commencing semester GPA and the whole of 2008 GPA. The latter group includes

additional students because some students who left before census in semester 1 returned to study in

semester 2. These figures show that the profile of the three grade categories has worsened over the

year, with 31% of this slightly larger group receiving an overall fail grade over the year, compared with

24.6% of students based on the commencing semester result. This is not solely due to the additional 75

students and suggests that some students who passed their commencing semester subsequently failed

in semester 2. While it is likely that some of this additional failure is due to students ceasing studying but

not withdrawing from their semester 2 units, it brings into focus the need to see whether students’ initial

academic status is maintained in the longer term and it questions a common assumption that students


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who do well in their first semester will continue to do so. This section will tease out the relationship

between commencing semester result and academic result in the longer-term.

Attempting to compare initial and later academic performance can be problematic because departures

occur across the three years and students take varying loads over the semesters they are enrolled. What

this means is that for many early departing students the commencing semester GPA is the same as their

overall GPA, or the latter is heavily influenced by the commencing semester results. For this reason this

analysis will be of students who have completed study over at least two calendar years so that there is a

reasonable subsequent academic history for comparison. This constraint means that students who leave

before or after completing the equivalent of one full academic year are omitted. The arbitrary figure of

150 load points is used to ensure the student history will cover more than one calendar year. Some

results are reported for students with a load of 100 or more points and so will include some students

who studied over a single calendar year.

This sections uses three approaches to look at the question of whether early difficulty is associated with

ongoing academic difficulty. Two measures of negative outcomes are used—the number of years a

student has an overall failing GPA and the number of years they fail at least 50% of their load. The latter

is the more severe outcome and such students would normally be at risk of probation or exclusion. The

third measure used is whether there is a drop in GPA from the commencing semester to the final

semester in which a student was in study. Results are given for each of the three commencing semester

GPA groups, for all students, and separately for departing and continuing/ completed students.

Commencing result and overall failure in students with substantial load

While failing high proportions of load occurs across in students in all commencing semester result

groups, it is much more prevalent in students who failed this semester, especially those who failed badly

(Table 3). The latter students are orders of magnitude (160 times) more likely to fail at least 75% of their

total load than students who pass their commencing semester. In contrast, this high level of failure is

uncommon in students who failed less badly in their first semester. Over the longer term these students

are likely to fail up to a quarter or a half of their total load. Table 3 shows that the failure profile of

departed students is worse than that of completed/ continuing students and all three commencing

semester result groups show this difference. This result suggests that the negative effects of failure on

retention occur over the longer-term as well as the shorter-term, and so may be cumulative. This of

course includes students whose departure from study may be due to exclusion.

Table 3 shows results for students who have studied for more than one calendar year that suggest that

students who pass their commencing semester can struggle, or continue to have some academic

difficulties, further down the track, and that this could be associated with later attrition. Of the 210

students who passed their commencing semester but left, 25% (52 students) failed nothing and so left

for reasons other than academic performance. A further 30% (63 students) failed something, but this

was less than 25% of their total load. The remaining 95 students failed more than a quarter of load and

27 of these students failed half or more. Of the 210 who departed three quarters had failed something

and almost half showed signs of significant academic difficulties.

While these 95 students who show signs of struggling academically only make up 4% of the 2327

students with 150 points of load who passed their commencing semester it needs to be remembered

that many students who depart have taken less load (960 in total, of whom 466 passed their

commencing semester). Appendix 2 gives the failure profile of all students irrespective of load.


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Table 3. Commencing semester GPA by proportion of load failed for students studying over two or

three years who took a total of 150 load points or more

Commencing semester result Proportion of total load failed Number

of students none 1-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-100%

All students

GPA<2 0.0 11.2 28.4 28.4 32.1 134

2≤GPA<4 0.0 42.6 33.7 19.2 4.5 291

GPA≥4 67.3 24.0 7.1 1.5 0.2 2327

Total students 1566 697 301 128 60 2752

Departed students

GPA<2 0.0 1.9 9.3 25.9 63.0 54

2≤GPA<4 0.0 14.1 35.9 39.1 10.9 92

GPA≥4 24.8 30.0 32.4 11.0 1.9 210

Total students 52 77 106 73 48 356

Completed/continuing students

GPA<2 0.0 17.5 41.3 30.0 11.3 80

2≤GPA<4 0.0 55.8 32.7 10.1 1.5 199

GPA≥4 71.5 23.4 4.6 0.5 0.0 2117

Total students 1514 620 195 55 12 2396

Commencing result and failure of 50% of load in students with substantial load

Failing a half or more of the load taken in a calendar year is a serious outcome and can lead to probation

and eventual exclusion. Failing the commencing semester, especially a bad fail, is linked to higher levels

of this outcome (Table 4). Students who fail early are in general far less likely to pass at least half their

load in all years and are far more likely to fail half or more of their load in all the years in which they

studied than students who pass their commencing semester. Relative to the latter, badly failing students

are 15 times less likely to pass at least half their load in all years and are 82 times more likely to fail half

or more of their load in all years. These results suggest two things—that students who badly failing the

commencing are unlikely to pass everything in their second semester and so fail half or more of at least

one year. And second, that these students are struggling academically for a minimum of three semesters

(assuming a maximum load), since this analysis is limited to students with at least 150 points of load.

These very poor outcomes sit alongside the equally poor outcomes for the majority of the badly failing

group as a whole, most of whom leave study having taken a lower load (Table 1).

Students who fail their commencing semester with a GPA of more than 2, do much better, relatively

speaking. They are about half as likely to pass at least half their load in all years, and are 23 times more

likely to fail half or more of their load in all years, than students who passed their commencing semester.

It seems that some successful completion of units in the commencing semester is indicative of a

potential to do better, whereas the failure of all units in the commencing semester (the case for most of

the badly failing group) is a predictor of very poor academic outcomes into the longer-term.

What is also clear is that such long-term difficulty does have an impact on retention. Departing students

across all commencing semester GPA groups were more likely to have failed a half or more of load in one

or more years than students who continued or completed (Table 4). Some, but not all, of the departures

are likely to be involuntary, i.e., are due to exclusion.


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Table 4 also shows that most students who pass their commencing semester subsequently pass at least

half their load in all years. However, around 10% do not, and a small minority do badly in more than one

more year. What causes these later difficulties cannot be determined from administrative and results

data. In general students who experience personal difficulties which impact on studies will subsequently

apply for and may receive withdrawal without academic penalty (WW). However, it is likely that some of

the later-term poor academic results observed in the data do stem from personal circumstances, but the

students may not have applied for WW. The possibility also remains that for some of these students the

difficulties are genuinely academic in nature.

Table 4. Commencing semester GPA by years in which failed 50% or more of load for students

studying over two or three years who took a total of 150 load points or more


Proportion (%) of students who failed 50% or more of load for:

Number of

students

Proportion (%)

studying over two

years only no years

one of three years

one of two years or two of

three years

all years

All students

GPA<2 6.0 36.6 24.7 32.8 134 19.4

2≤GPA<4 48.1 23.0 19.6 9.3 291 16.2

GPA≥4 89.7 6.2 3.7 0.4 2327 16.1

Total students 2236 259 176 81 2752 447 (16.2%)

Departed students

GPA<2 0.0 16.7 20.4 63.0 54 40.7

2≤GPA<4 23.9 21.7 32.6 21.7 92 29.4

GPA≥4 51.0 19.1 26.7 3.3 210 28.6

Total students 129 69 97 61 356 109 (30.6%)


GPA<2 10.0 50.0 27.5 12.5 80 5.0

2≤GPA<4 59.3 23.6 13.6 3.5 199 10.1

GPA≥4 93.6 4.9 1.4 0.1 2117 14.8

Total students 2107 190 79 20 2396 338 (14.1%)

The results reported above were for students failing a half or more of load, a serious negative outcome

and one which can trigger academic probation. Table 5 shows the proportions of students with a

‘milder’ negative outcome, a failing GPA over a year. It is possible for a student to fail a unit and still pass

over the year—for example, a full-time student who fails one unit will still achieve a GPA of 4 or more

provided they have enough units at a credit level or higher. A student who fails one 12.5% unit could

pass overall with three individual passes and four credits (a total of 32 points÷4=4) assuming all units

have the same weight. Similarly, a student who fails two units can still pass overall if they have at least

one distinction and the remainder as credits. Having one pass would need to be balanced by additional

distinctions. Perhaps surprisingly, the range of grades received by individual students with 150 points or

more of load is high—a majority (69%) of those who fail something achieve a highest grade of a

distinction or higher, as do a majority (92%) of students whose lowest grade is a pass. This co-

occurrence of fails and high grades is a reminder that a student with a passing GPA has not necessarily

passed everything or is progressing as quickly as he or she could be.


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Table 5 shows that students who badly failed in their commencing semester always have an overall

failing GPA for at least one year, and half had failing GPAs in all years. This confirms that students who

badly fail in the commencing semester are never able to compensate by achieving consistently high

grades in their second semester4. This is expected, particularly as the majority of badly failing students

have in fact failed everything, an outcome indicating academic problems of such severity that ‘recovery’

is unlikely.

Students who fail less badly in the commencing semester do not do much better, with less than 10%

subsequently passing all years, and just over a third failing all years (Table 5). This suggests that an

overall failure in the commencing semester due to the presence of fail grades that are not

counterbalanced by high grades is strongly indicative of ongoing difficulties. The results for students

who fail early on are a stark contrast to students who pass their commencing semester, as less than a

quarter fail any year and only 11% fail for two or three years.

Table 5. Commencing semester GPA by years with a failing GPA for students studying over two or

three years who took a total of 150 load points or more


Had a failing GPA for: Number

of students no years

one of three years

one of two years or two

of three years all years

All students

GPA<2 0.0 18.7 30.6 50.8 134

2≤GPA<4 8.9 24.1 32.7 34.4 291

GPA≥4 77.1 12.1 7.6 3.2 2327

Total students 1821 376 312 243 2752

Departed students

GPA<2 0.0 3.7 22.2 74.1 54

2≤GPA<4 2.2 10.9 25.0 62.0 92

GPA≥4 32.4 19.5 29.6 18.6 210

Total students 70 53 97 136 356


GPA<2 0.0 28.8 36.3 35.0 80

2≤GPA<4 12.1 30.2 36.2 21.6 199

GPA≥4 81.6 11.3 5.4 1.7 2117

Total students 1751 323 215 107 2396

As for the incidence of failure of load, Table 5 shows that the profile of failing GPAs is worse for

departing students than for completed or continuing students. It also shows that some students who fail

less badly in the commencing semester do ‘recover’ and so fail no years.

The effects of commencing semester result and result trajectory on completion/continuing in study

A closer examination of the figures shows that students with 100 or 150 points of load who improve their

overall GPA are less likely to leave, especially if they achieve an overall pass in the most recent year of

4 The highest grades achieved over 2008 by 516 students who fail their commencing semester badly are fails (66%), passes (23%,

including TP and UP), credits (7%), distinctions (3%) and high distinctions (0.4%).


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study. This trend is irrespective of the students’ commencing year GPA. Table 6 shows the proportion of

students who leave or stay separated by their commencing semester GPA, whether the final year’s GPA

was an overall pass or not, and whether the difference between the commencing and final GPAs

represent an improvement, a worsening, or whether the two figures are similar5. Note that the numbers

of students in some of the disaggregated groups is very small, particularly because of the high early

departure rates amongst the badly failing commencing group students.

Despite the low numbers, the trends are consistent across all commencing semester GPA groups:

initially failing students who improve in their final year relative to the commencing semester are more

likely to stay, with the best retention in students who improved to the extent of achieving an overall pass

(Table 6). The lowest retention is in students whose GPA worsens over time. A number of possibilities

could account for this trend. A worsening academic record may reflect a process of disengagement

before, and possibly contributing to, the decision to leave study. It could also reflect the impact of

personal circumstances on study, or an increasing struggle to meet the academic requirements of more

advanced units as a student progresses.

Table 6. Commencing semester GPA by change in GPA and final semester GPA for students who took a

total of 150 load points or more, and 100 load points or more

Commencing semester

result

Final year GPA relative

to commencing

semester

GPA of final year

GPA<4 fail GPA≥4 pass

Students with 150+ points of load

Students with 100+ points of load

Left (%)

Completed or

continued (%)

Number of

students Left (%)

Completed or

continued (%)

Number of

students

GPA<2 Lower Fail 75.0 25.0 20 86.1 13.9 36

Similar Fail 57.7 42.3 26 86.9 13.1 99

Better Fail 41.3 58.7 46 53.3 46.7 60

Better Pass 11.9 88.1 42 10.9 89.1 46

2≤GPA<4 Lower Fail 68.8 31.3 80 79.2 20.8 120

Similar Fail 35.6 64.4 45 42.6 57.4 54

Better Fail 28.6 71.4 28 32.3 67.7 31

Better Pass 9.4 90.6 139 11.3 88.7 150

GPA≥4 Lower Fail 39.4 60.6 317 48.6 51.4 403

Lower Pass 6.6 93.4 484 9.1 90.9 514

Similar Pass 3.7 96.3 1131 9.1 90.9 1251

Better Pass 2.8 97.2 395 4.7 95.3 423

Total students

356 2397 2753 676 2511 3187

Not surprisingly, the highest retention is observed in students who pass their commencing semester and

their final year of study, even if there is a slight drop in GPA across this time. What is of note is that

almost 40% of students who passed their commencing semester but fail in the final year in which they

study do not complete or continue, despite having already taken at least 150 points of load. For students

with 100 points or more of load, this figure is almost 50%. These results highlight the importance of

5 Two GPAs are considered similar if the difference between them is 0.5 or less. However, if two GPAs are within 0.5 but one is a

pass and the other a fail, then the student is instead classified as having done better or worse depending on the direction of the change.


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monitoring students over the long term and identifying those who are not doing as well as they have did

earlier in study. They also suggest that further qualitative research is needed to determine why students

do worse, with the view to identifying who they are earlier, and intervening before the decision to leave

is taken, or is inevitable.

Student background

This section compares the background features of the three commencing semester groups to see if the

students in these groups differ on average, and whether these differences shed light on why students are

likely to fail early. Table 7 shows that higher than expected proportion of males occur in both failing GPA

groups compared with females, who are somewhat more likely to pass the commencing semester. Note

that column percentages are used in Table 7 and throughout the tables in this and the next section.

Table 7. Sex by commencing semester GPA


Female Male Total

students

GPA<2 11.4 15.7 516

2≤GPA<4 9.3 14.2 442

GPA≥4 79.3 70.1 2946

Total students 2277 1627 3904

Percentage of total 58.3 41.7 100.0

Χ2=44.5, 2df, p<0.0001. NB column percentages used—

some columns do not sum to 100 because of rounding.

While age structure also differs across the GPA groups the broad split of each age class is similar, with

approximately 70-80% of each age group achieving an overall pass in their commencing semester (Table

8). What does seem to change with age is the relative sizes of the badly failing and less badly failing

groups. At ages over 21 years, students who fail the commencing semester are relatively more likely to

fail it badly, and the proportion failing less badly drops off as age increases. The largest difference is for

the 51+ year group and the smallest is for the 22-25 year group. Having said this, the 51+ year group is

also the most likely to pass (82% do) of all age groups and the 26-30 year group is most likely to fail badly

(19%), and the least likely to pass (70%). It is quite likely that the relationship between age and

Table 8. Commencing semester GPA by age in 2008

Commencing

semester result

Proportion (%) in each age class (years) Total

students <=21 22-25 26-30 31-40 41-50 51+

GPA<2 11.9 15.1 18.6 13.8 14.2 13.6 516

2≤GPA<4 11.9 12.8 11.7 8.5 9.9 4.9 442

GPA≥4 76.3 72.2 69.8 77.8 75.9 81.6 2946

Total students 2300 557 291 400 253 103 3904

Percentage of total 58.9 14.3 7.5 10.2 6.5 2.6 100.0

Χ2=23.0, 10df, p=0.011. NB column percentages used—some columns do not sum to 100 because

of rounding.

commencing semester result is due to associations between age and other background factors, such as

admissions qualification category (see Appendix 3). Indeed, 41% of the 101 students aged 51 or over had

been admitted on the basis of prior completed higher education which is consistent with the high pass

rate. The 22-30 year old students who displayed the lowest rates of passing the commencing semester


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had relatively high rates of partial completing higher education, suggesting that some of these students

may have changed courses after having academic difficulties6.

Students with administrative risk factors7, and higher numbers of risk factors are relatively more likely to

obtain a bad fail in their commencing semester (Table 9). The small group of students with three or

more risk factors are five times as likely to badly fail than students with no risk factors, and two to three

times more likely to fail badly than students with one or two risk factors. Figures for achieving an overall

pass are almost the inverse—students with 2 or 3 or more risk factors are about a third to a half as likely

to pass their commencing semester as students with no or a single risk factor. Having administrative risk

factors is clearly linked to early failure in commencing students.

Table 9. Commencing semester GPA by total administrative risk factors

Commencing

semester result

Proportion (%) of students with varying number of risk factors in each GPA

group Total

students 0 1 2 3+

GPA<2 11.7 16.6 30.9 57.1 516

2≤GPA<4 10.2 16.0 22.7 20.0 442

GPA≥4 78.1 67.4 46.4 22.9 2946

Total students 3272 500 97 35 3904

Percentage of total 83.8 12.8 2.5 0.9

Χ2=142.0, 6df, p<0.0001. NB column percentages used—some columns do not

sum to 100 because of rounding.

Commencing semester academic result is strongly linked to ITI score (Table 10) with the proportion

passing this semester more than doubling between the lowest and highest ITI category. Just under a

third (31%) of students with a score of 40 or less passed overall compared with almost all (91%) of the

students with a score of 81 or more. This result is largely determined by young students as the majority

Table 10. Commencing semester GPA by ITI score


Proportion (%) in each ITI score class

Total students

with an ITI score

Total students

Proportion with no ITI score (%)

1-40 41-60 61-80 81-100

GPA<2 31.3 23.1 10.7 3.9 186 516 64.0

2≤GPA<4 37.5 17.1 14.4 4.9 200 442 54.8

GPA≥4 31.3 59.9 75.0 91.3 1568 2946 46.8

Total students 16 334 620 984 1954 3904 1950

Percentage of total 0.8 17.1 31.7 50.4 50.1 49.9

Χ2=209.9, 6df, p<0.0001. With students missing an ITI score included as a category, Χ

2=232.9, 8df, p<0.0001.

NB column percentages used—some columns do not sum to 100 because of rounding.

(87%) of students with an ITI score are 21 years or less in age and the almost all (97%) are less than 25

years. Students who are not domestic year 12 entrants (and so lack a score) form more than half of all

students who fail their commencing semester, and almost two-thirds of those who fail badly. These

other students have either not entered directly from school, have other more recent educational

6 In addition to the 51+ years group, these two age groups had the highest proportion of commencing old students.

7 Note that the risk load is modified so that being born overseas is not considered a risk factor.


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experiences which have provided the basis of admission, have alternative entry, including mature age

entry or are full-fee paying overseas students (see below).

The majority of students have a qualification category (QC) recorded in the USRS, which effectively gives

the basis on which they gained admission to the course the student commenced in 2008. The QC is

typically their highest or most recent educational qualification or study experience. Table 11 shows that

the majority (63-87%) of the students in each QC group pass their commencing semester. Badly failing is

relatively common (about a fifth) in interstate year 12 students, TAFE entry students, mature age entry

students, and partial prior higher education students. Figures for these groups for overall failure in the

commencing semester range between 28% and 37%. Students with completed prior higher education do

best in the commencing semester. The early difficulties of TAFE and alternative entry students is

perhaps not surprising, as the adjustments needed are possibly quite large for these students. However

it is of note that the students that overall did the worse were interstate Year 12 entrants. While this

group was relatively small this result is a concern as these students have done much worse than other

Year 12 entrants and alternative entry students. It is possible that this result is due to ‘re-settlement’

issues that occur when students move interstate and may have limited or no local family, friends or

support networks and limited access to immediate work opportunities.

Table 11. Commencing semester GPA by admissions qualification category (QC)

A1: Tasmanian Year 12 entrant; A2: interstate Year 12 entrant; A3: other Year 12 B1: TAFE; B2: mature age; B3: other C1: partial previous higher education; C2: completed prior higher education


Proportion (%) in each QC category Total

students with a QC

Total students

Proportion with no QC

(%) A1 A2 A3 B1 B2 & B3 C1 C2

GPA<2 10.2 19.3 9.9 21.0 20.4 16.5 8.5 459 516 11.1

2≤GPA<4 11.2 17.4 10.7 12.5 13.4 11.4 5.0 370 442 16.3

GPA≥4 78.7 63.3 79.4 66.5 66.2 72.1 86.5 2512 2946 14.7

Total students 1360 109 131 472 142 787 340 3341 3904 563

Percentage of total 40.7 3.3 3.9 14.1 4.3 23.6 10.2 85.6 14.4

Χ2=84.9, 12df, p<0.0001. With students missing a QC included as a category, Χ

2=92.7, 14df, p<0.0001. NB column

percentages used—some columns do not sum to 100 because of rounding.

Citizenship category is the final background factor considered here (Table 12). Full-fee-paying overseas

students (FFPOS) and Australian/NZ citizens did similarly well in their commencing semester with three-

quarters of students obtaining an overall pass. FFPOS students are slightly less likely to fail badly and

slightly more likely to fail less badly than Australian and NZ citizens. However, unlike the FFPOS students,

the domestic contingent includes alternative entry students. In fact, FFPOS students do somewhat less

well than a group that is more directly comparable, Tasmanian Year 12 entrants (cf A1 entrants in Table

11). The small number of humanitarian visa students do the worse of all the citizenship groups, with the

highest rate of bad fails and overall fails.


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Table 12. Commencing semester GPA by citizenship


Proportion (%) in citizenship category

Total students

Australian or New Zealand

citizen

Australian permanent

resident

Full-fee paying overseas student

Australian permanent resident with a humanitarian

visa

GPA<2 13.5 8.9 11.1 22.2 516

2≤GPA<4 10.8 14.3 13.8 33.3 442

GPA≥4 75.7 76.8 75.1 44.4 2946

Total students 3380 56 441 27 3904

Percentage of total 86.6 1.4 11.3 0.7

Χ2=23.0, 6df, p=0.0008. NB column percentages used—some columns do not sum to 100 because of

rounding.

Postscript on student departure: students who fully withdraw

Because this report has looked at outcomes based on commencing semester performance and failure, it

excludes another category of departed students—those who leave university without obtaining results,

that is, who have at least one period of enrolment but who always withdraw without academic penalty,

either by doing so prior to census date, or by subsequent application. Such students will include those

who take up an offer at another institution after applying to several, or have changed their mind about

studying. It is timely here to briefly consider this group of students and whether they, like the

commencing semester GPA groups, have background characteristics which distinguishes them from the

remainder of the cohort. Note that this group includes eight students who are in study in 2011.

The students who first enrolled in 2008 but who have not gained results from then until 2010 make up

12.1% of the commencing cohort. On average, this group is slightly more likely to contain female

students (Table 13) and is older than those that did gained at least one academic result (Table 14), and in

particular this group has a relative dearth of students aged 21 and under, and higher proportions of

students aged 26 and over.

Table 13. Distributions of students with and without results by sex

History from 2008 until 2010

Gender of students Number of students

Female Male

Enrolled but no results 12.9 10.8 566

Enrolled and gained results 87.1 89.2 4129

Total students 2763 1932 4695

Χ2=4.54, 1df, p=0.033, continuity adjusted. NB column percentages used—

some columns do not sum to 100 because of rounding.

In general, students with more risk factors are more likely to leave without gaining results than students

without risk factors, and the more risk factors a student has, the more likely they are to do so (Table 15).

The apparent exception, students with three or more risk factors, is likely to be the result of a

preponderance of humanitarian visa students in this small group of 29 students.


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Table 14. Distributions of students with and without results by age group


Age group (years) Number

of students <=21 22-25 26-30 31-40 41-50 51+

Enrolled but no results 7.8 13.5 19.3 18.5 20.8 20.4 566

Enrolled and gained results 92.2 86.5 80.7 81.5 79.2 79.6 4129

Total students 2631 683 394 514 336 137 4695

Χ2=119.4, 5df, p<0.0001. NB column percentages used—some columns do not sum to 100

because of rounding.

Table 15. Distributions of students with and without results by number of administrative risk factors


Students with varying number of risk factors Total

students 0 1 2 3+

Enrolled but no results 11.6 16.2 20.0 3.5 566

Enrolled and gained results 88.4 83.8 80.0 96.6 4129

Total students 4184 402 80 29 4695

Χ2=14.1, 3df, p=0.0027. NB column percentages used—some columns do not

sum to 100 because of rounding.

The majority (69%) of students who gain no results lack an IT score. Of those that do, proportions

without results are similar (7-9%)across ITI groups, except for the lowest group which has over a quarter

without results, but which contains only 23 students (Table 16). See Appendix 4 for detailed breakdowns

of outcomes for all students with different ITI scores in the cohort.

Table 16. Distributions of students with and without results by ITI score


Proportion (%) in each ITI score class Total

students with an ITI score

Total students

Proportion of total

with no ITI score (%)

No score

1-40 41-60 61-80 81-100

Enrolled but no results 15.9 26.1 8.8 8.6 6.8 178 566 68.6

Enrolled and gained results 84.1 73.9 91.2 91.4 93.2 2075 4129 49.7

Total students 2442 23 397 723 1110 2253 4695 48.0

Χ2=31.4, 3df, p=0.0039. With no score included as a category, Χ

2=79.7, 4df, p<0.0001. NB column percentages

used—some columns do not sum to 100 because of rounding.

Year 12 entrants from interstate and students with completed prior higher education are the most likely,

at over a quarter, to withdraw and so gain no results (Table 17). Students with no QC, Tasmanian Year

12 entrants and students with partial previous higher education are the least likely to do this (3-11%).

The large number of students with no category is likely to be an artefact of how this data is stored in the

system and how processes influence the accessibility of this information.

Finally, Table 18 shows that Australian permanent residents (excludes humanitarian visa students) are

the most likely (41%) to leave without gaining any results and that full-fee paying overseas students are

the least likely to do so (2%).


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Table 17. Distributions of students with and without results by admissions qualification category (QC)

A1: Tasmanian Year 12 entrant; A2: interstate Year 12 entrant; A3: other Year 12 B1: TAFE; B2: mature age; B3: other C1: partial previous higher education; C2: completed prior higher education


Proportion (%) in each QC category Total

students with a

QC

Total students

Proportion with no QC

(%) No QC A1 A2 A3 B1 B2 &

B3 C1 C2

Enrolled but no results 3.2 5.9 27.6 16.5 20.2 17.3 10.6 26.4 547 566 3.4

Enrolled and gained results 96.8 94.2 72.4 83.5 79.8 82.7 89.4 73.6 3547 4129 14.1

Total students 601 1538 156 170 618 179 937 496 4094 4695 12.8

Χ2=210.4 6df, p<0.0001. With no score included as a category, Χ

2=281.2, 7df, p<0.0001. NB column percentages

used—some columns do not sum to 100 because of rounding.

Table 18. Distributions of students with and without results by citizenship category


Proportion (%) in citizenship category

Total students

Australian or New Zealand

citizen

Australian permanent

resident

Full-fee paying

overseas student

Australian permanent resident

with a humanitarian visa

Enrolled but no results 12.5 41.0 1.8 12.5 566

Enrolled and gained results 87.5 59.0 98.2 87.5 4129

Total students 4108 100 455 32 4695

Χ2=125.3, 3df, p<0.0001. NB column percentages used—some columns do not sum to 100 because of

rounding.

Discussion

This study of the three year outcomes of students who failed or who passed their commencing semester

looked at whether students continued in study or completed and at their ongoing academic results. In

particular, it looked at how much of their total load that they failed, the number of years in which they

received an overall failing GPA and the number of years in which they failed a half or more of their load

in that year. The results demonstrate that failure in the commencing semester, and in particular, bad

failure (GPA<2), is associated with early departure, and ongoing academic difficulties in those students

who continue. Such difficulties, which amount to a long history of failure in some students, can

eventually lead to late departure from studies.

Recovery from early failure was looked at using students who had completed a substantial amount of

load. Recovery in an academic sense (achieving an overall pass for the year) does happen but is not

common in students who fail their commencing semester badly—these students invariably fail (overall

GPA<4) at least their first year. Those that fail their commencing semester, but have a GPA above two,

are more likely to pass most of their years, but the majority do fail at least the first year. However, these

students continue to do, on average, worse than students who pass their commencing semester. They

fail a higher proportion of their total load. In addition, they are far less likely to achieve at least one

distinction or high distinction than students who pass their commencing semester (55% vs. 89%) over the

longer term. It is certainly possible that the achievement of some students is limited due to the time

required for other commitments (such as family responsibilities and paid work). Regardless of the


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reason, what this raises is the possibility that ongoing failure of units and the absence of rewards in the

form of high grades could contribute to a decision to leave study. Some evidence to suggest that there

could be such an effect is the observation that retention is higher in students who improve their GPA

over the time they study, regardless of their commencing GPA.

The negative outcomes associated with early failure is clear from the results, but what is not clear is why

students fail their commencing semester. Many background factors show differences across the

commencing semester GPA groups, but these differences are often small, for example, the relatively

higher proportion of male students in the failing groups. For Year 12 entrants, the occurrence of poor

outcomes drops dramatically as ITI score increases. However, many students do not have these scores,

including most full-fee paying overseas students, who, perhaps not surprisingly, do not do quite as well

as the most comparable domestic group. Age profile also differs across commencing GPA groups, but

interpretation is complicated by an association with age (see at risk report) and with qualification

category, which is much more variable as age increases. Of particular note is the higher rates of earlier

failure in Year 12 entrants from interstate, and in students with TAFE, mature age and other entry. It

would be worthwhile investigating the reasons for failure in these students.

Also of interest is the extent to which students who leave early without results and students who have

early academic difficulty have similar background characteristics. Clearly, some of these students will

have applied to study at several universities and may have enrolled at UTAS and then received another

acceptance—this group may include a number of students with high ITI scores. In addition, students

with low scores are more likely to fully withdraw than those with higher scores. To this extent, this

result mirrors the GPA results for those who do commence, that is, lower scoring students are more

likely to fully withdraw and if they don’t, are more likely to fail in their commencing semester. A further

similarity is that interstate Year 12 students, and TAFE, mature age and other entry students are also

more likely to fully withdraw as well as to fail their commencing semester, if they continued in study.

Students with prior completed tertiary study and other Year 12 entrants (A3 students) are also relatively

more likely to withdraw but they are not more likely to fail, if they do complete some study. What this

shows is that all groups that are particularly at risk of failure in the commencing semester are also at risk

of very early (pre-census) departure from study. Several other groups are at risk of very early departure,

but are not at increased risk of failing the commencing semester. Since students with completed prior

higher education, are both capable in and familiar with tertiary environments it is likely that fully

withdrawing is a decision made on life circumstances (e.g., time for study, interest , other commitments).

In the case of other Year 12 entrants, which also includes people of diverse ages, it is likely that both life

circumstances and uncertainty may drive the decision to withdraw.

This study shows that the worst long-term outcomes are for students who fail badly in their commencing

semester. The majority of these students fail everything in this semester, and most leave study at UTAS

entirely, primarily at the end of their first semester or the first year. This group almost certainly includes

some students opting out of study because of a late acceptance into a course in another university as

evidenced by the number high scoring students who fail their commencing semester badly. However, in

general, such students will a minority in this group. The very poor outcomes for these students has

serious implications for them, their families and networks, for Tasmania, and for UTAS, as thwarted

aspirations and the negative experience of early failure potentially ‘poisons the well’ amongst sections

of the population being targeted in the widening participation agenda. It is imperative that the reasons

for failure are investigated and that, if under-preparedness is an issue, pathways are developed and

refined to adequately support the development of these students to ready them for undergraduate


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study. The aim should first be to drastically reduce the number of people who fail in their first semester

at university. Second, formal pathway options should be included in academic progress review

recommendations, to be used for students for whom preparedness for tertiary study is judged to be the

cause of the failure.


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Appendices


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Appendix 1. Final outcomes of students who fail early and pass early

Early result

Percentage of original cohort

N Graduated, continuing

to study

Graduated, left

Not graduated, continuing

Not graduated,

left

No results, left


GPA<2 0.0 1.4 18.0 80.6 n/a 516

2≤GPA<4 0.7 10.9 37.8 50.7 n/a 442

GPA≥4 2.0 34.2 40.9 23.0 n/a 2946

Commencing year result

GPA<2 0.0 1.3 16.8 81.9 n/a 609

2≤GPA<4 0.8 8.2 43.3 47.7 n/a 621

GPA≥4 2.1 36.6 40.9 20.4 n/a 2749

With any results in 2008

All 1.6 26.8 37.6 34.1 n/a 3979

With any administrative risk factors 0.2 19.0 32.1 48.7 n/a 641

With no administrative risk factors 1.8 28.3 38.7 31.3 n/a 3338

Appendix 2. Commencing semester GPA by proportion of load failed of all students

Commencing semester result Proportion of total load failed Number

of students none 1-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-100%

All students

GPA<2 0.0 3.7 8.1 11.8 76.4 516

2≤GPA<4 0.0 31.5 32.6 27.2 8.8 442

GPA≥4 67.4 21.3 7.7 3.2 0.3 2946

Total students 1986 786 413 276 443 3904

Departed students

GPA<2 0.0 0.2 1.4 8.2 90.1 416

2≤GPA<4 0.0 9.4 31.3 44.2 15.2 224

GPA≥4 53.0 16.1 17.8 11.8 1.3 676

Total students 358 131 196 213 418 1316


GPA<2 0.0 18.0 36.0 27.0 19.0 100

2≤GPA<4 0.0 54.1 33.9 9.6 2.3 218

GPA≥4 71.7 22.9 4.7 0.7 0.0 2270

Total students 1628 655 217 63 25 2588


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Appendix 3. Age by qualification category of students with a result in semester1/3 of 2008

A1: Tasmanian Year 12 entrant; A2: interstate Year 12 entrant; A3: other Year 12. B1: TAFE; B2: mature age; B3: other. C1: partial previous higher education; C2: completed prior higher education.

Age group (years)

Qualification category (QC) Total students

A1 A2 A3 B1 B2 & B3 C1 C2

<=21 98.3 95.4 13.7 20.8 18.3 44.9 5.6 1955

22-25 1.3 3.7 16.0 20.8 15.5 21.1 25.0 413

26-30 0.4 0.0 14.5 13.8 9.9 11.8 16.2 251

31-40 0.1 0.9 30.5 23.5 28.2 12.5 23.5 371

41-50 0.0 0.0 21.4 15.3 23.9 7.1 17.7 250

51+ 0.0 0.0 3.8 5.9 4.2 2.7 12.1 101

Total students 1360 109 131 472 142 787 340 3341

NB column percentages used—some columns do not sum to 100 because of rounding.

Appendix 4. ITI score and final outcomes of all students in commencing 2008 cohort

ITI score

Percentage of original cohort Number

of

students Graduated, continuing

to study

Graduated, left

Not graduated, continuing

Not graduated,

left

No results,

left

None 1.3 22.4 24.5 36.2 15.6 2442

1-40 0.0 4.4 17.4 52.2 26.1 23

41-60 0.3 18.6 36.3 36.0 8.8 397

61-80 1.4 24.6 39.8 25.7 8.4 723

81-100 1.8 25.2 49.7 16.6 6.7 1110

Total students 62 1081 1585 1409 558 4695

Χ2=352.7, 16df, p<0.0001.

Longitudinal outcomes of students in the 2008 commencing cohort with early academic risk

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