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ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFICBANGKOK, THAILAND

NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION INASIA AND THE PACIFIC: LAUNCHINGTHE INTERNATIONAL DECADE FOR

NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION

VOLUME I

WATER-RELATED NATURAL DISASTERS

LIBRARY, INTr- ;•'•.;• - - . . - s i A i , r ? c - : r n . :

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UNITED NATIONSNew York, 1991

ST/ESCAP/1066

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply theexpression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legalstatus of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiersor boundaries.

The views expressed in signed articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those ofthe United Nations.

This document has been issued without formal editing.

221

FOREWORD

Many of the Asian and Pacific developing countries are situated in the world'shazard belts of earthquakes, windstorms, tidal waves, droughts, heavy precipitation andfloods. Storm surges and earthquakes are the natural disasters which cause the mostdestruction of human lives and property, and in some countries affect the nationaleconomy significantly. In addition, tsunamis, landslides and volcanic eruptions areknown to have affected certain areas of the region in varying degrees at different times.

Losses due to natural disasters deprive countries of resources which could other-wise be used for economic and social development, thus further impeding their devel-opment process. The toll from disasters is particularly severe and tragic in developingcountries, which have often had their development goals set back years and evendecades as a result of the devastating impacts of natural disasters.

In December 1987, the General Assembly, recognizing the importance of reducingthe impact of natural disasters for all people, and particularly for those in developingcountries, declared the 1990s as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reductionin its resolution 42/169. During the Decade, the international community, under theauspices of the United Nations, is to pay special attention to fostering internationalcooperation in the field of natural disaster reduction. The objective of the Decade is toreduce, through concerted international action, especially in developing countries, theloss of life, property damage and social and economic disruption caused by naturaldisasters, such as earthquakes, windstorms, tsunamis, floods, landslides, volcaniceruptions, drought and other calamities of natural origin.

Global coordination of disaster mitigation and response activities has been en-trusted to the Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Coordinator (UNDRO) andof Decade-related activities to the IDNDR Secretariat, established in Geneva, Switzer-land.

In its resolution proclaiming the 1990s as the International Decode for NaturalDisaster Reduction, the General Assembly urged the regional commissions of theUnited Nations to play an active role in implementing the activities of the Decade,considering that natural disasters often transcend national boundaries. Although theEconomic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) had long beeninvolved in efforts to mitigate the effects of natural disasters, particularly water-relatedones, the Decade has provided a new impetus for concerted efforts for activities innatural disaster reduction. ESCAP, at its forty-fifth session held in 1989, adopted aresolution on fulfilling the objectives of the Decade in the region, endorsing the proposalto give increased emphasis to activities aimed at reducing natural disaster. An interdivisionaltask force for the Decade was subsequently established within the ESCAP secretariat toundertake multisectoral activities related to natural disaster reduction in the region,within the framework of Decade programmes.

In order to launch the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reductionofficially in the region, ESCAP, in cooperation with UNDRO and the IDNDR Secre-tariat, and with generous financial support from the Government of Japan, organized aRegional Symposium for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction inAsia and the Pacific. The Symposium was held at ESCAP headquarters at Bangkokfrom 11 to 15 February 1991, and was attended by 72 participants, representing 22members and associate members of the commission as well as international and regionalorganizations.

IV

Volume I of the Proceedings of the Symposium concentrates on water-relatednatural disasters. The report of the Symposium, including a considerable number ofconcrete recommendations, is included as part one of this volume. Part two comprisesthe technical background papers on water-related natural disasters in countries of theESCAP region. Part three includes country reports on national efforts to reduce naturaldisasters, particularly water-related ones. Twenty case studies from 16 countries of theregion are presented. Finally, part four presents activities of international agencies in allaspects of natural disaster reduction. Thus, parts one and four of this volume relate toseveral types of natural disaster including: cyclones/typhoons and floods; droughts;earthquakes and tsunamis; and volcanic hazards. Parts two and three, comprising thetechnical background papers, are concerned primarily with water-related natural disas-ter. A second volume will be published to include a number of background papersrelated to seismic and volcanic hazards.

The ESCAP secretariat would like to express its gratitude to the Government ofJapan for making possible several specific projects related to natural disaster reductionin the region. Although most of these concentrated on flood loss prevention and otheraspects of water-related natural disaster reduction, the secretariat was able to conductsome studies on seismic and volcanic disasters as well. The Government of Japan alsogenerously provided financial support for this Symposium, at which all the backgroundstudies prepared up to that point were presented.

We are also grateful to the other United Nations agencies, which generouslycooperated in this activity, as well as to regional organizations, which have supportedESCAP disaster-related programmes.

Natural Disaster Reduction in Asia and the Pacific: Launching theInternational Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

Volume I

PART ONE

REPORT OF THE ESCAP/UNDRO REGIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON THEINTERNATIONAL DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION

Chapter Page

I. Report of the Regional Symposium 3

II. Plan of action and recommendations formulated by the Regional Symposium 7

Annexes

I. List of participants 14

II. Programme of the Symposium 18

III. IDNDR International Conference 1990 Japan: Major Tasks Identified 21

IV. List of documents 22

PART TWO

TECHNICAL BACKGROUND PAPERS ON WATER-RELATED NATURALDISASTERS IN COUNTRIES OF THE ESCAP REGION

I. Overview of disasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods in countries of the ESCAP region andexisting preparedness and prevention measures in the vulnerable countries 27

II. Case studies on preparedness and response measures to disasters caused by cyclones/typhoons andfloods 41

III. Practical measures for mitigation of water-related natural disasters in the ESCAP region by M.Nishihata 56

IV. Suggested policies for reduction of disasters caused by typhoons, cyclones and floods 62

Appendix. Philippine programme on community disaster preparedness 66

V. Assessment and mitigation of droughts in Asia and the Pacific by V.V.N. Murty 70

VI. Characteristics of storm surges, with focus on Japan by Tatsuo Konishi 85

VII. Flood disaster reduction in the Lower Mekong Basin by Thaipuck Thammongkol and Le Huu Ti 91

V2

CONTENTS (continued)

Chapter Page

PART THREE

NATIONAL DISASTER MITIGATION EFFORTS IN COUNTRIES OF THE ESCAPREGION, WITH EMPHASIS ON WATER-RELATED NATURAL DISASTERS

I. Major natural disasters which affect Australia by R.K. Ellis 103

II. Impact of natural disasters on Bangladesh by Mohiuddin Azad 109

III. Atmospheric disasters in China and countermeasures by Wang Ang-Sheng, Fan Zhen and Xin Miao-Xin.. 113

IV. Typhoon disasters and preventive measures in China by Fan YongXiang 117

V. China's strategy to reduce serious natural disasters by Wang Ang-Sheng 127

VI. IDNDR activities in China and prospects for co-operation in reducing natural disasters in Asia and thePacific by Chen Hong 130

VII. Natural disasters: Fiji experience 133

VIII. Major natural disasters in India: Incidence and management approach by B. Narasimhan 138

IX. Natural disasters and meteorological warning systems in India by G.S. Mandal •.• 144

X. Indonesia: Disaster preparedness and management by Jusuf Talib 150

XI. Damage from floods and mitigation measures in Malaysia by Ferng Meow Chong 154

XII. Hazards review, disaster prevention and preparedness in Myanmar by Ohn Maung and San Thein 157

XIII. Disaster preparedness and management in Pakistan by Sh, Zia ud Din Ahmed 161

XIV. The great flood in the Han River basin, Republic of Korea by Kyung-Sup Shin 166

XV. Solomon Islands information paper 169

XVI. Natural disasters in Thailand 172

XVII. Tonga's efforts to reduce the impacts of tropical cyclones 175

XVIII. Natural disasters in Vanuatu: the threat and the response by W.M. Longworth and M.A. Bergin 177

XIX. Measures to reduce damage from water-related natural disasters in the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam byNguyen Ngoc Dong 184

XX. Natural disasters in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in 1990 188

PART FOUR

ACTIVITIES OF INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES IN NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION

I. Meteorological and hydrological aspects of natural disasters by O.M. Melder 193

II. UNDRO's role and projected activities in the first phase of the International Decade for Natural DisasterReduction by J. Nemec 200

Vll. „ „ „ — ^ ! — — — •

CONTENTS (continued)

Chapter Page

III. Mitigating the effects of natural disasters on human settlements by I. Armillas 204

IV. The Asian Development Bank: Disaster mitigation activities by W.M. Schelzig 209

V. IDNDR activities at the United Nations Centre for Regional Development by H. Sazanami and I.Tsukagoshi 211

VI. IDNDR promotion in Japan and the results of IDNDR International Conference 1990 Japan by MatasukeTanaka and Tadashi Itoh 215

VII. ESCAP's role in natural disaster reduction in Asia and the Pacific 220

VIII. Impact of natural disasters on the least developed and island countries of the ESCAP region 223

Appendix. Environment and disaster mitigation, preparedness and prevention

List of Tables

1. Tropical cyclones: areas of occurrence and categories 28

2. Tropical cyclones: frequency of occurrence 29

3. Summary of major disasters caused by tropical cyclones or floods in selected countries of the ESCAP

region (1970-1988) 34

4. Estimates of damages due to droughts reported by some Asian and Pacific countries (1982-1989) 73

5. Successive drought periods in some regions of China 75

6. Duration of successive drought periods in some regions of China 75

7. Major drought occurrences in India 76

8. Periodicity of droughts in India 76

9. Rainfall deficiencies in India during 1987 drought 78

10. Suggested institutional arrangements for mitigation of droughts 83

11. Major storm surges due to tropical cyclones 86

12. General hydrology of the Mekong River up to 1989 92

13. Consequences of 1987 and 1988 floods in Bangladesh 109

14. Consequences of three major cyclones in Bangladesh (1970-1989) 110

15. The maximum recorded rainfall in 17 provinces and cities in eastern and central China 115

16. Ten major types of disaster and lives lost from 1947 to 1980 117

17. Meteorological disasters 118

Vlll ^ _

Page

18. Occurrence of major meteorological disasters experienced in China by type..... 119

19. Typhoon disasters sustained by some members of the Typhoon Committee (1985-1988) 120

20. Some statistics on disasters sustained by China in 1982-1989 124

21. Intensity and classification of cyclonic disturbances 144

22. Frequency of tropical cyclones near India, 1891-1988 145

23. Disaster records in Indonesia, 1984/1985 to 1988/1989 152

24. Damages due to cyclones in Myanmar 158

25. Damages caused by floods in Pakistan, 1973-1989 162

26. Summary of weather forecasts and warnings for the heavy rain period, 10-11 September 1990 167

27. Frequency of tropical cyclones entering Thailand from 1951-1990 173

28. Damages caused by typhoon "Gay", 4 November 1989 174

29. Tropical cyclone precautions 182

30. Human losses and material damages caused by storms and floods in Viet Nam from 1979 to 1989 185

List of Figures

I. Observed tide, astronomical tide and storm surges during typhoon 8506 at Tokyo port 86

II. Chronology of storm surges exceeding 1 m in Japan since 1945 87

III. Timetable of operation of facilities and observed water levels and meteorological elements during thepassage of typhoon 7290 at Tatsumi-Gate of Tokyo Metropolitan Government 89

IV. Dissemination of forecasts in the Mekong Basin 97

V. Communication of forecasts between the Mekong Secretariat and Vietnamese authorities 98

VI. Frequency distribution of natural disasters in selected Asian countries over the period 1964-1986 118

VII. Flood forecasting and warning practice in Malaysia 156

VIII. Accumulated rainfall in Seoul during 10-11 September 1990 and the warnings issued to the public 167

IX. Functional diagram of organization for disaster prevention and preparedness in the Solomon Islands 171

X. Organizational structure for disaster management in Vanuatu 180

XI. Chronology of death toll, and missing persons, caused by natural disaster in Japan 216

IX

List of Maps

Page

1. Frequencies of storm surges exceeding 1 m along the Japanese coast since 1945 87

2. Flood forecasting operation in the Mekong Delta 96

3. Inland typhoon tracks affecting North China 121

4. The distribution of severe rainstorms caused by typhoons in China (1953-1979) 123

5. Tropical cyclones affecting Fiji (January 1980-January 1989) 134

6. India: incidence of natural disasters 139

PART ONE

REPORT OF THE ESCAP/UNDRO REGIONALSYMPOSIUM ON THE INTERNATIONAL

DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTERREDUCTION

I. Report of the regional symposium

I. REPORT OF THE REGIONAL SYMPOSIUM

A. Organization of the Symposium

The ESCAP/UNDRO Regional Symposium on theInternational Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction washeld at Bangkok from 11 to 15 February 1991.

The Symposium was organized by the Economic andSocial Commission for Asia the Pacific (ESCAP), in co-operation with the Office of the United Nations DisasterRelief Co-ordinator (UNDRO), with generous financialsupport from the Government of Japan. It marked thelaunching of the International Decade for Natural DisasterReduction in the ESCAP region.

1. Attendance

The Symposium was attended by 39 participantsfrom 22 members and associate members of ESCAP: Aus-tralia, Bangladesh, China, Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indone-sia, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Japan, Lao People's Demo-cratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Republicof Korea, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand,Tonga, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and Viet Nam,It was also attended by the Director of the secretariat of theDecade and by representatives of the United Nations Centrefor Human Settlements (Habitat), the United Nations Centrefor Regional Development (UNCRD), the United NationsDevelopment Programme (UNDP), the United NationsDisaster Relief Co-ordinator (UNDRO), the United NationsEducational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO),the World Health Organization (WHO) and the WorldMeteorological Organization (WMO). Six participantsrepresented the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the In-terim Committee for Co-ordination of Investigations of theLower Mekong Basin (Mekong Committee) and the AsianInstitute of Technology. In addition, 12 resource personsassisted the secretariat with their technical expertise in theareas of: cyclones/typhoons and floods; earthquakes andseismic hazards; volcanic hazsards; storm surges; tsunamis;and droughts. In addition to ESCAP secretariat staff, atotal of 72 participants and observers attended the Symposium.The list of participants in attached as annex I.

2. Opening of the Symposium

The Executive Secretary of ESCAP, in opening theSymposium, welcomed the participants and expressed hisappreciation to the Government of Japan for its generousfinancial support. He recalled the General Assemby reso-lution proclaiming the 1990s as the International Decade

for Natural Disaster Reduction and noted the importantrole of the regional commissions in carrying out Decadeactivities. He stressed that many developing countries ofthe region were located in the world's hazard belts fornatural disasters. Such calamities were frequently devas-tating in terms of loss of life and property. The tollresulting from natural disasters was particularly severeand tragic in developing countries, which had borne thebrunt of property losses and had suffered 90 per cent of thedeaths in recent years. Many of the countries which werehardest hit were those least able to mobilize funds torestore their physical infrastructure and rebuild communities.Massive outlays on emergency and recovery operationshad forced several countries to set back their developmentgoals many years. He observed that, during the Decade,long-standing international involvement in emergency reliefand rehabilitation could be augmented by an increasedinternational contribution to disaster prevention and miti-gation. He emphasized the important task before theSymposium: to chart a course and recommend a plan ofaction for the countries of the region to participate incooperative action to reduce natural disasters

The Director of IDNDR Secretariat, noted that, inadopting resolution 44/236, the General Assembly hadchallenged the human race to focus its scientific knowl-edge and creative skills on reducing the death, sorrow andphysical hardship which were so often the result of naturaldisasters. Preventing and mitigating natural disasters werevital in both humanitarian and economic terms. He stressedthe need to harmonize the strategies for taking care ofenvironmental concerns with efforts to mitigate naturaldisasters. It was necessary to put into use and shareknowledge on how to reduce natural disasters through:enhancing national capabilities, particularly in the areas ofearly warning, assessment and programmes for buildingdisaster-resistant structures; and mobilizing the pool ofexisting scientific and technical knowledge. In addition tothe important function ESCAP had to perform at the re-gional level, the role to be played by individual countries atthe national level was of special importance. To that end,all Governments were called upon to formulate naturaldisaster mitigation programmes as well as economic, land-use and insurance policies for disaster prevention, and tointegrate them fully into their national programmes foreconomic development. National committees should pro-vide the impetus for attaining the goals of the Decade. TheIDNDR Secretariat was giving priority to steps for enhanc-ing the national capability to meet the challenges of naturaldisasters and was working closely with national commit-tees to achieve the aims of the Decade.

Part One: Report of the ESCAP/UNDRO regional symposium on theInternational Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

The Deputy Permanent Representative of Japan toESCAP, in his address, noted that frequent natural disas-ters in the region had caused tremendous set-backs to thesocio-economic development of vulnerable countries andareas, which were sometimes beyond the capabilities ofthose countries to cope with. In that connection, he stressedthe importance of international attention and co-operation,and expressed the willingness of the Government of Japanto share its experience and expertise in the field of disasterprevention, and to provide some assistance to the countriesin need of help. He hoped that the Symposium wouldproduce a workable framework of action for natural disas-ter reduction in the region through constructive and candiddiscussions.

3. Election of officers

Mr. Ratu Meli Bainimarama (Fiji) was elected Chairman,Mr. B. Narasimhan (India), Vice-Chairman and CaptainDevendran Selvarajoo (Singapore), Rapporteur.

4. Agenda of the Symposium

The Symposium adopted the following agenda:

(a) Opening of the session.

(b) Election of officers.

(c) Adoption of the agenda.

(d) Technical session I: International Decade forNatural Disaster Reduction:

(a) Background and aims;(b) Relevance to countries of the ESCAP re-

gion;(c) Results of the IDNDR International Confer-

ence 1990 Japan.

(e) Technical session II: General overview of disas-ters in the ESCAP region;

(a) Disasters caused by cyclones/typhoons andfloods;

(b) Disasters caused by earthquakes and vol-canic activity;

(c) Disasters caused by drought.

(f) Technical session III: International disastermitigation activities.

(g) Technical session IV: Regional disaster mitiga-tion programmes.

(h) Technical session V: Parallel working groups:Presentation and discussion of case studies;

Working group 1. Cyclones/typhoons and floods;Working group 2. Volcanic and Seismic hazards;Working group 3. Droughts.

(i) Technical session VI: Special session on theimpact of natural disasters on the least devel-oped, land-locked and island countries.

(j) Technical session VII: Laws and regulationsrequired for disaster responses.

(k) Technical session VIII: Parallel working groups:Discussion of community-level responses to naturaldisasters

(1) Technical session IX: Parallel working groups:Formulation of policy on natural disaster reduc-tion:

(a) Pre-disaster assessment and prevention;(b) Emergency preparedness and early warning

systems;(c) Post-disaster rehabilitation.

(m) Technical session X: Formulation of frameworkof action for natural disaster reduction.

(n) Adoption of the report.

B. Technical sessions

(Items 4-13 of the agenda)

The opening session was followed by 10 technicalsessions, which are outlined in the programme in annex II.The first technical session covered the aims and objectivesof the International Decade and its relevance to the ESCAPregion. The Director of the IDNDR Secretariat reiteratedthat the objective of the Decade was to reduce the effects ofnatural disasters through the application of science andtechnology. It could be demonstrated that in severaldeveloped countries, including Japan, the decrease in lossof life from natural disasters had been dramatic followingthe adoption of policies and legislation on disaster mitiga-tion. He noted that the role of the IDNDR Secretariat wasthat of a catalyst, facilitator and co-ordinator, thus orches-trating the entire process at both the national and interna-tional levels. He outlined the mechanisms for achievingthe objectives of the Decade, including the establishmentof the Special High-level Council to provide policy guid-ance, and the convening of the Scienlific and TechnicalCommittee, to advise on a detailed action plan and specificprojects to be supported under the Decade. Contributionsto a fund for assisting the Decade activities had beensought from individual countries. He invited suggestionsas to the adequacy of the mechanism envisaged for "ener-gizing" national committees and other actors.

I. Report of the regional symposium

The representative of the Office of the United Na-tions Disaster Relief Co-ordinator (UNDRO), presented astatement on behalf of the Co-ordinator. He noted thatUNDRO was a joint sponsor of the Symposium and had,together with ESCAP, taken the initiative of holding thesymposium early in the Decade. UNDRO considered thatthe Decade was particularly important to countries of theESCAP region, not only because of the natural conditionsin the region but also because of the economic and socialcircumstances which increased the vulnerability of denselypopulated areas to disaster. UNDRO was the only special-ized organizational entity in the United Nations dealingexclusively with disasters and was the focal point fordisaster management in the United Nations system. Itstasks in relation to natural disasters encompassed the completedisaster cycle — from the early warning phase precedingthe actual impact or occurrence through the emergencymanagement and response phase, to ideniification of sec-tors for reconstruction and rehabilitation and, finally, coveringthe issue of mitigation, that is, applied disaster reductionas part of the development process. The majority of theUNDRO activities were thus to be seen as directly relatedto the realization of the Decade's goals.

The Chief of the Water Resources Section of ESCAPmade a presentation on the relevance of the Decade tocountries of the ESCAP region. He pointed out that 85 percent of 4 million deaths resulting from sudden naturaldisasters in the world in the period 1900-1990 had oc-curred in Asia and the South-west Pacific. In their effortsto reduce the effects of such natural disasters, variousdivisions of ESCAP had initiated practical programmes onnatural disaster reduction, which he described briefly. Hegave some examples of how death tolls due to cyclones hadbeen reduced successfully in some countries owing toconcerted action on the part of the government and theconcerned United Nations agencies.

The Senior Disaster Management Planner of iheUnited Nations Centre for Regional Development (UNCRD),presented a report on the past activities and future plans ofthe Centre in relation to the Decade. The Centre wouldcontribute to the Decade through regional developmentactivities, in particular training, human resources develop-ment and research co-operation with developing countries.The priorities for UNCRD were in the following areas:

(1) Exchanging knowledge and experience amongregions suffering from similar types of disasters;

(2) Encouraging research work on the vulnerabilityto major disasters in metropolitan areas;

(3) Supporting studies to clarify the socio-economiceffects of major disasters in various locations;

(4) Assisting the establishment/enforcement of anadministrative and institutional system for dis-aster management.

Mr. Motosuke Tanaka, Councellor to the DisasterPrevention Bureau, National Land Agency, Governmentof Japan presented the results of the IDNDR InternationalConference 1990 Japan which had been held in Japan from27 September to 3 October 1990. At that Conference,various topics related to natural disaster reduction andinternational cooperation had been discussed by senior-level policy planners, administrators, researchers and leadersof non-governmental organizations from 43 countries andrepresentatives of 16 international organizations. TheConference had identified major tasks that should be im-plemented as Decade activities (see annex III).

In the discussion that followed on the aims andobjectives of the Decade, it was pointed out that in additionto enhancing the scientific and physical capabilities fromdisaster reduction, management was very important torelief and mitigation. It was considered necessary toinclude the management aspect in initiatives concerningthe Decade, including the rectification of improper man-agement techniques. Identification of economic develop-ment programmes which had potential to reduce naturaldisasters would also assist developing countries. It wasnoted that industrial and other man-made disasters mightalso be prevented by locating an industry or communityaway from a disaster-prone area or constructing it in adisaster-resistant way. Some representatives questionedhow resources could by mobilized for the Decade, particu-larly funds to strengthen existing mitigation programmes,motivate actors and coordinate the vastly different activi-ties of many countries coping with various types of disas-ters.

The Director of the secretariat of the Decade repliedby stating that generally investments in disaster mitigationwere justified if they achieved multiple objectives-en-compassing economic and social development aims andmore efficient management of natural resources. TheIDNDR Secretariat was aiming at actors, including non-governmental organizations, business and the media inaddition to Governments and international and regionalorganizations, as potential sources of funds and as keyactors in mitigation efforts. He welcomed the suggestionconcerning the constitution of a policy-level committee tofacilitate intergovernmental consultations. He explainedthat the IDNDR Secretariat would soon be publishing anewsletter and he welcomed inputs from representatives atthe Symposium. As for coordinating activities related todifferent types of disaster, he explained that some meas-ures could be applicable to more than one hazard, such asrisk assessment, monitoring and early warning networks,and selection criteria used in siting industry or communi-

Part One: Report of the ESCAP/UNDRO regional symposium on theInternational Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

ties. Furthermore, multi-hazard approaches could be usedin building up national capacities and training disastermanagers.

The opening session and the first technical sessionwere followed by nine other technical sessions as indicatedin the programme. The list of technical papers presented isattached as annex IV. In brief, these sessions covered thefollowing:

(a) General overview of disasters in the ESCAPregion.

(b) International mitigation activities and programmes.

(c) Regional mitigation activities and programmes.

(d) Presentation and discussion of case studies, in-cluding all the major types of natural disastersexperienced in the region.

(e) Presentation and discussion on the impact ofnatural disasters on least developed, land-lockedand island countries.

(f) Presentation and discussion of the laws andregulations required for disaster responses.

(g) Parallel working group discussions on commu-nity-level responses to natural disasters;

(h) Parallel working group discussions and specificrecommendations on water-related natural dis-aster reduction, droughts, earthquakes and tsu-namis, and volcanic eruptions.

(i) Discussion and formulation of an action plan fornatural disaster reduction and recommendationsapplicable to the mitigation of all the naturaldisasters considered during the sessions.

The Symposium split into four working groups, cov-ering the following: typhoon/cyclones and floods; earth-quakes; volcanoes; and droughts. The groups formulateda series of recommendations, some of which were gener-ally applicable to all hazards, and some applied specifi-cally to reducing the effects of one type of hazard. Therecommendations are included in the next section. Throughoutthe plan of action and recommendations, the term "devel-oping countries" was meant to cover least developed coun-tries, land-locked and island developing countries, as wellas other developing countries prone to natural disasters inthe region.

In the course of the Symposium, issues related toglobal warming were not considered during the discussion.It was decided to leave that subject to other forums.

Adoption of the report

The report was adopted on 15 February 1991.

II. Plan of action and recommendations formulated by the regional symposium

II. PLAN OF ACTION AND RECOMMENDATIONS FORMULATED BYTHE REGIONAL SYMPOSIUM

1. The group proposed that, in addition to the Scientificand Technical Committee appointed to oversee the workon natural disaster reduction, a policy-level committee,comprising persons actually engaged in practical disaster-reduction activities in various disaster-prone countries,and persons from donor countries/agencies, could assistthe Decade machinery in the formulation of disaster-reductionprogrammes and selection of projects to be implementedunder the Decade.

2. The role assigned to the secretarial of the Decade bythe General Assembly was supported, and it was expectedthat it would achieve its role in the coordination andmonitoring of activities on natural disaster reduction. Itwas essential to avoid duplication of work by variousUnited Nations and other international agencies. Sincedisaster reduction efforts required multidisciplinary ap-proaches, the need for concerted action by the concernedorganizations was emphasized.

3. Member countries should consider establishing na-tional committees for natural disaster reduction, whererequired.

4. National action plans should aim at generating tech-nical capabilities, strengthening the observational networkand improving research and development activities, so thatbetter services could be provided. In order to promotelocal capabilities, preference could be given to local con-sultants in natural disaster reduction activities.

5. Member countries were urged to establish their pri-orities, to assess the gaps in their knowledge, and todetermine the resources required for an effective disasterreduction programme. Accordingly, projects could beformulated for assistance, and compiled by the Decadesecretariat to solicit funding. Projects of a regional orsubregional nature, covering several countries, could thenbe implemented by ESCAP and/or other United Nationsand international agencies.

6. Member countries should undertake research andstudies on various aspects of natural disasters and theirreduction, with international assistance if required. ESCAPand other United Nations agencies, donor countries andorganizations could be called upon to provide such assist-ance.

7. Decade programmes should be responsive to na-tional priorities and perceptions as well as to regional andglobal trends. In that context, meeting the requirementsand filling the gaps in knowledge or technology transfershould be emphasized.

8. Considering that the implementation of disaster re-duction measures would call for a significant amount ofresources, and that many developing countries prone todisaster would not be in a position to mobilize them, theUnited Nations was called upon to make all the necessaryefforts to attract funds from donor countries and agenciesto support Decade programmes.

9. International financing institutions were urged toaccord high priority to projects aimed at disaster reduction.Their procedures could be streamlined to provide a quickresponse to requests for the financing of such projects.Interim funding pending appraisal of projects, and ear-marking of funds for financing such projects, could also beconsidered.

10. Many development programmes could lead to disas-ter reduction. Such projects should be accorded the high-est priority for funding by financial institutions.

11. It was recommended that success and failure criteriafor evaluation of the impact of the natural disaster reduc-tion activities should be established and distributed tomember countries. An expert group meeting, or a work-shop of specialists, could be convened by concerned UnitedNations agencies to draw up such criteria.

12. It was also recommended that a regional workshopshould be organized on land-use planning in relation tonatural disasters.

13. A conference or meeting of the concerned countriesshould be organized in 1995 in order to review achieve-ments up to the middle of the Decade and provide informa-tion for review by the General Assembly that year.

14. Training programmes for disaster management per-sonnel should be organized at national, regional and locallevels. Training programmes, seminars and symposiashould be organized by national and international organi-zations to upgrade the skills of technical personnel. Devel-oped countries should devote a percentage of their trainingefforts to assisting least developed and developing coun-tries, with emphasis on in-country training.

A. Recommendations for the reductionof all hazards

General recommendations of the Symposium appli-cable to the reduction of all the natural disasters consid-ered during the sessions were as follows:

Part One-. Report of the ESCAP/UNDRO regional symposium 01/theInternational Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

1. Formulation of policy

1. Countries must immediately establish national com-mittees or disaster prevention councils, as envisaged underthe Decade. Such committees might be entrusted with theformulation and implementation of disaster managementpolicies.

2. National committees for the Decade should be suffi-ciently high-powered to ensure efficient and effective in-terdepartmental cooperation and coordination.

3. There was an urgent need for the countries to formu-late national policies on disaster relief and disaster reduc-tion strategies and disseminate them very widely. Theobligations of the community and the responsibilities ofgovernment should be clearly spelled out through appro-priate legislation or executive orders.

4. In order to overcome resource constraints in under-taking relief programmes and disaster reduction projects,such efforts should form an integral part of developmentprogrammes. The national committee for the Decade mustmonitor the development programmes to ensure that thedisasierreduction content was given due recognition, buildingup infrastructure and increasing the country's resilience todisaster in the long term.

5. Countries should formulate contingency action plans,at national and subnational levels, identifying the authori-ties responsible for taking relief management measures,the triggering mechanisms and procedures for inter-agencyinteraction.

6. Focal points for the direction and control of disastermanagement should be established at the appropriate lev-els. Crisis management groups, with representation fromall concerned ^agencies, should be set up at appropriatelevels, to monitor relief operations, identify bottlenecksand initiate corrective measures. Those groups shouldmeet periodically to review preparedness measures priorto a disaster.

2. Pre-disaster assessment

1. Hazard mapping should be undertaken to delineatecausative source areas and areas which were exposed topotential risks from natural disasters. Those maps shouldbe distributed for international, national and local use.

2. A comprehensive vulnerability analysis should beundertaken in all disaster-prone areas, incorporating pastdisaster events, the socio-economic conditions of thepopulation living in that area, and inventories of majorstructures of public concern. That would enable quick

assessment of the potential impact of a disaster and initia-tion of appropriate measures for reducing the impact.

3. Attention should be given to improving the riskassessment of all natural hazards. Risk assessment shouldinclude areas of influence, frequency, intensity, impact,return period, etc. Risk zoning for each natural hazardcould be carried out and published.

3. Disaster prevention measures

1. Each country, should develop policies establishingthe Government's position on the desired mix of preven-tion and preparedness measures to be employed for naturaldisaster reduction.

2. Each country may enact legislation/regulations toensure the effective implementation of disaster manage-ment policies and programmes by the responsible depart-ments, authorities and the community.

3. Each country should allocate adequate funds for theimplementation of preventive and preparedness measuresas a means of reducing the future costs of disaster responseactivities. The international community should assist countriesfacing resource constraints.

4. Each country should implement comprehensive pro-grammes for the collection of statistics on damage causedby natural disasters. That type of information should forma suitable basis for economic analyses.

4. Early warning systems

1. Disaster preparedness started from the observationand monitoring of the potential disasters. Therefore, everycountry should ensure that its observational equipment andnetworks monitored the disasters properly and providedquick dissemination of the hazard information.

2. Early warning systems as well as command controland awareness systems, should be developed.

3. Institutional arrangements should be established forthe exchange of information among neighbouring coun-tries/areas on all phases of the disaster on a continuousbasis, preferably in a standardized format.

4. Neighbouring countries should exchange emergencyinformation relating to any impending disaster to ensurethat advance warning would reach the areas likely to beaffected.

5. Emphasis should be given to collecting reliable feed-back information on damage caused by natural disasters.

II. Plan of action and recommendations formulated by the regional symposium

5. Disaster preparedness

1. AU levels of government must have effective coun-ter-disaster plans and organizations in place. Those shouldbe coordinated vertically and laterally with establishedand equipped emergency operations centres. To facilitatemobilization of resources for disaster relief operations, thefocal authorities at different levels should be invested withpowers to reallocate resources from sectoral allocations ofgovernment departments.

2. Disaster response volunteer organizations should beformed, trained and equipped to work with professionalagencies, as required.

3. Countries might identify rescue teams which couldbe made available for relief operations in neighbouringcountries. The services of those teams must be publicizedand thus utilized to promote regional co-operation. In thatconnection, the Symposium was pleased to note that theGovernment of Japan was prepared to dispatch, upon therequest of disaster-stricken countries, disaster relief teamswhich would carry out rescue, emergency medical care andrestoration/rehabilitation activities.

4. All communication links with disaster-prone areascould be examined periodically and upgraded so that theywould serve without problems during a disaster.

5. Special emphasis should be given through the Dec-ade to the improvement of communications systems throughoutthe region. Those systems were vital at both the nationaland regional levels for the transmission of basic data andwarning information.

6. Community awareness programmes and school edu-cational programmes on disaster preparedness should bedeveloped and implemented.

7. In order to promote community involvement, com-mittees could be established at the local level, includingrepresentatives of non-governmental organizations andthe public, to monitor and guide disaster-relief operations.

8. Manuals and guidelines on different aspects of naturaldisaster reduction, such as risk assessments, forecasting,warning, disaster preparedness and mitigation measures,could be prepared by national and international organiza-tions.

9. Emergency relief stockpiles should be established aswarranted.

10. In case of supply of medicines to a disaster area fromother countries, international terminology and descriptionsof the medicines should be indicated clearly to facilitatethe use of such medicines. Standardization of medical

supplies and their pre-positioning should be done at strate-gic points.

11. Training of health personnel should be carried out atthe grass-roots, managerial and policy-planning levels ona regular basis by countries to provide timely assistance tothe affected people. The required international assistancecould be provided by concerned international agenciessuch as WHO, and non-governmental organizations suchas the International Red Cross/Red Crescent Societies.

6. Disaster response

1. Developed countries might offer to provide assist-ance when requested by approved authorities in the recipientcountry or area. Unsolicited disaster relief supplies orpersonnel, such as rescue teams, should not be dispatchedto affected countries.

2. Immediate life-saving measures should always havetop priority. Recipient countries should implement rapidlycustoms and health/quarantine arrangements for clearanceof relief personnel and supplies. Donor countries shouldnot send food which did not conform to local quarantinerequirements and local culinary standards.

3. Nutritional supplements for vulnerable sections ofthe society must form an integral part of disaster mitigationprogrammes.

4. Epidemic and nutritional surveillance should be carriedout immediately after natural calamities.

5. When evacuation was required, families should beevacuated as a unit, to avoid unnecessary psychologicalsuffering,

6. Due attention should be given, internationally andnationally, to rehabilitation activities. Reconstruction ofbasic infrastructure, in particular, should be carried out sothat communities, families and individuals could restoretheir former living standards and secondary disasters beprevented.

7. When resettling communities, sites should be chosenso as to allow the population access to meaningful eco-nomic occupations.

7. Community-based approaches todisaster response

1. It must be recognized that the initial and most vitalresponse to disaster must be at the local level.

2. The community must be well informed about disas-ter-preparedness measures and be alert in time of disaster.

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3. Agreed, co-ordinated and tested arrangements fordisaster response were required.

4. All levels of government should recognize and sup-port the above principles.

5. Governments should provide incentives for the for-mation of trained, equipped, disaster-response organiza-tions of volunteers at the community level. Transport,communications, rescue, first aid and disease surveillanceand control facilities should be provided.

6. Volunteer response agencies should have affiliationwith full-time agencies such as the police and fire servicesto ensure that the volunteers were recognized as a valuableresource asset and fully utilized.

7. Governments should provide adequate resource sup-port to non-governmental organizations.

8. Governments should provide public awareness train-ing material.

9. The preparation phase must include: formation,equipping and training of response organizations, andregular conduct of exercises.

10. Non-government organizations should be encour-aged and their capabilities integrated into community dis-aster plans.

11. The application of knowledge was required to catchup with research.

B. Recommendations on water-relatednatural disasters

The Symposium made the following recommenda-tions on reduction of the effects of water-related naturaldisasters:

1. Each country or area should attempt to improve thequality of forecasts and warnings and increase the leadtime of warning to enable affected areas to make advancepreparations. Sufficient recognition should be given tostrengthening those activities under Decade programmes.Because of the critical importance of basic data in theprediction of natural disasters, greater emphasis should begiven to the expansion of observational and monitoringsystems, especially in the data-scarce areas of the region.

2. Proper vulnerability analyses could be made in thehigh-risk zones, taking into consideration the infrastruc-ture and other structural facilities for cyclones, floods,storm surges, etc. affecting the region,

3. The efficacy of large-scale engineering projects inthe reduction of floods should be carefully analysed and

evaluated in view of their impact on environmental endow-ment and their potential for causing land degradation.Such projects involved high investment and could be ac-corded lower priority in the allocation of resources ascompared with non-engineering measures in a disasterreduction strategy.

4. When major engineering projects were being under-taken, meteorological services should be encouraged toprovide, wherever possible, their expertise on the recur-rence of extreme surge heights and high winds.

5. Dwelling units and public service buildings in cy-clone and flood-prone areas should be constructed to windand flood-resistant design. Low-cost housing programmesshould incorporate disaster-resistant construction techniques.Traditional building techniques which had disaster-resist-ant components should be encouraged.

6. Critical facilities, such as medical and public healthfacilities, drinking water supplies and communicationsfacilities, should be established on sites least likely to beaffected by floods, cyclones, landslides or tsunamis.

7. Disaster-proof structures, such as shelters, raisedplatforms, emergency food grain and drinking water stor-age tanks could be built in high-risk areas. Easy access tosuch structures must be ensured.

8. Land use played a crucial role in the ability to containrun-off and reduce floods. Long-term disaster reductionefforts should therefore aim at evolving appropriate landuse in the flood-prone areas by harmonizing land suitabil-ity with agricultural development strategies. Measures toevolve proper land use should include both legislative andeconomic inducements. Countries must formulate land-use policies to sustain development over the long term.

9. Management of catchments through appropriate soiland moisture conservation measures, shelter belts of treesalong the banks of rivers and degradation-resistant landuse should constitute important components of a disasterreduction strategy. Such measures were multidisciplinaryin nature. Consequently, the disaster reduction strategymust include mechanisms for the coordination of the ac-tivities of agencies engaged in the sectoral developmentactivities. The strategy should also include promotion ofpublic awareness of proper land-use practices.

10. Contour maps with 0.5 m elevation intervals shouldbe prepared for high-risk zones in order to facilitate pre-ventive work against floods and storm surge, in those areaswhere such maps did not exist.

11. For facilities which required large investment, coun-tries might consider utilizing or establishing regional fa-cilities with international assistance.

II. Plan of action and recommendations formulated by the regional symposium 11

C. Recommendations on droughts

With respect to drought assessment and mitigation,the following steps were recommended in addition to thegeneral recommendations made for natural disaster reduc-tion.

1. Pre-disaster assessment and mitigation

1. A complete resource analysis of the drought-proneareas was recommended, which should take into consid-eration land-use patterns, water resources, livestock andfodder resources, cropping patterns and drinking waterfacilities. Monitoring of important parameters affectingliving conditions in the drought-prone region must beundertaken regularly.

2. Preventive measures for drought should be inte-grated with other developmental programmes to insulateareas which suffered periodic droughts.

3. Suitable cropping systems for drought-prone areasneeded to be developed. Those should include drought-resistant crop varieties and also less water-dependent crops.

4. Crop cultivation practices (dry farming) that usedless water needed to be developed and practised.

5. Comprehensive resource development on the basisof watershed management in the drought-prone areas shouldbe attempted. That should include provision of irrigationfacilities, groundwater development, run-off storage andrecycling, and appropriate crop practices to ensure sustain-able development.

6. A comprehensive crop insurance scheme should beintroduced to mitigate the effects of crop failure.

7. Groundwater management appeared to be an impor-tant aspect in drought-prone areas. It should includegroundwater recharge practices and, wherever possible,regulation of over-exploitation of groundwater.

8. In the drought-prone areas, secondary and tertiarysector activities needed to be encouraged so that peoplewere less dependent upon rainfed agriculture. Such activi-ties included the development of horticulture, agro-basedand small-scale industries.

2. Emergency preparedness and earlywarning systems

1. Establishment of an early drought warning systembased upon meteorological parameters and crop growthmonitoring, similar to the ESCAP/United States NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satel-lite crop monitoring project, appeared to be useful.

2. Food distribution systems to provide food securityfor the drought-prone areas might be set up. Agriculturalcontingency plans should' be drawn up, keeping in mind theagro-climatic endowments, and 'should be disseminatedwidely among extension networks and farmers. Properstocking of appropriate crop seeds might be considered.

3. Projects which could be implemented during droughtperiods for employment generation might be prepared inadvance.

4. Advance plans could be made to identify areas wherefodder cultivation could be taken up and to identify sitesfor cattle camps.

5. In case of storage reservoirs, careful water budgetingneeded to be adopted to meet the critical needs of thepopulation, livestock and crops.

6. Provision should be made for augmenting drinkingwater facilities, such as procuring drilling rigs for deepwell drilling and mobile pumping equipment.

7. Nutritional surveys and disease surveillance shouldbe carried out and appropriate health measures initiated toprevent morbidity and mortality.

3. Drought management

1. With respect to agriculture, contingency crop plansprepared prior to drought needed to be implemented intime of drought. In that respect, agricultural extensionactivities and credit to farmers were important.

2. For water conservation, the activities of the agricul-ture, irrigation and water supply agencies needed to be co-ordinated.

3. Provision of drinking water to the affected areasshould be given high priority.

4. Persons who were unable to find employment owingto drought should be given employment opportunities.The projects for employment generation should be care-fully designed to suit the local situation.

5. Preservation of livestock resources could be assistedby establishing cattle camps and operating fodder banks,or by arranging cattle migration to other areas.

6. A special feeding and nutritional monitoring pro-gramme for vulnerable groups of people should be contin-ued until the threat of famine-related disease was over.

7. Rehabilitation programmes needed to be monitoreduntil conditions returned to normal in the area.

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International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

8. All efforts should be made to prevent migration ofthe people and cattle from the drought region. The objec-tive should be "living with drought".

4. General

1. Countries such as China and India had considerableexperience with droughts, and their experience could beused to improve techniques, as and when appropriate.

2. Drought periods could be used to advantage by ac-celerated implementation of development activities.

3. Innovati ve drought management practices should bedocumented to enable other countries or regions to adoptthem, if they were suitable.

I). Recommendations on earthquakesand tsunamis

With respect to earthquakes and tsunamis, the fol-lowing were recommended:

1. Pre-disaster assessment and mitigation

1. The seismicity of the region needed to be betterunderstood. The major earthquake disasters in the regionshould be fully investigated and documented. There was aneed for free exchange of data among countries in theregion in standardized formats. Attempts should be madeto utilize the available data more effectively. Furtherstudies should be initiated in areas having inadequate data.Mechanisms of earthquake-generated tsunamis in certainparts of South-East Asia needed to be better understood.

2. Existing seismic data acquisition networks should beupdated and improved. In certain areas of the region, therewas a need for the installation of seismic data acquisitionsystems. In several parts of the region strong earthquakeground motion data acquisition should be initiated.

3. Methods for earthquake hazard assessment neededto be improved. There should be more intraregional exchangeand cooperation.

4. The assessment of the vulnerability of structures,systems, human lives and the social-economic structurewas a very complex and challenging subject with physical,socio-economic as well as environmental variables. Be-cause of its "soft" variables, vulnerability assessmentswere site-specific. However, generalized approaches tosuch assessments were needed for different building sys-tems and socio-economic groups.

5. Since urban areas could be strongly affected byearthquakes, there was a need for "micro/zonation" mapsdelineating the earthquake hazard. Those maps shouldpreferably indicate the associated risks.

6. Multidisciplinary (engineering-geology-geophysics-urban-planning-economics-sociology) cooperation andcommunication were essential in order to ensure that theknowledge was properly applied and implemented.

7. Earthquake-resistant design codes for buildings andother civil engineering structures might need to be reviewed.For certain countries there might be a need for their preparationand enforcement.

8. Earthquake-resistant designs of important civil en-gineering structures, such as port and harbour structures,dams, bridges and power plants, should be based on site-specific studies. Guidelines should be updated and/orprepared for pre-earthquake strengthening of critical andessential buildings, civil engineering structures and systems.

9. For non-engineered construction, special guidelines,in easily understandable formats, should be prepared toincrease their earthquake resistance.

10. Land-use planning, earthquake insurance and taxincentives, were regarded as effective long-term mitigationtools available to administrators and policy makers, togetherwith other legal measures.

11. Education, training and awareness building shouldbe considered as an integral part of pre-disaster assessmentand mitigation activities.

2. Emergency preparedness and earlywarning systems

1. For tsunamis, early warning networks in the Pacificshould be completed. Research in earthquake predictionshould be encouraged.

2. Emergency management planning at the inter-agencylevel must be coordinated and integrated. The plans shouldbe rehearsed periodically, and should be clear at eachoperation level.

3. Emergency management in large urban areas shouldbe emphasized. Restoration of life lines should be givenpriority. Provision of immediate access to the disaster areashould be considered.

4. In earthquake disasters, the use of rescue teams wasimportant, since after 24 hours the survival rate of thevictims dropped sharply. That necessitated adequatepreparation of the local emergency, rescue and medical

II. Plan of action and recommendations formulated by the regional symposium 13

services. The rescue operation plans should include trans-port and access.

5. The building of disaster awareness in the generalpopulation, starting with the individual, was essential inreducing casualties. Training in emergency managementshould be introduced. Regional and national disastermanagement training institutions should be strengthened.

3. Post-disaster rehabilitation

1. Especially in developing countries, earthquake dis-asters created opportunities for the mitigation of futuredisasters through review and revision of disaster-manage-ment regulations and earthquake-resistant new construc-tions.

2. The reconstruction planning should be done effec-tively and as soon as possible after the disaster. It shouldbe ensured that all new construction would be earthquake-resistant.

3. For large-scale, post-earthquake development projectsites, structure- and system-specific earthquake hazardand vulnerability studies should be carried out.

4. In urban areas, critical structures and schools shouldbe relocated in less hazardous sites.

5. Resettlement of communities was a very delicate andcomplex issue which should be considered only for smallrural villages with imminent hazards and severe logisticalproblems.

E. Recommendations on volcanic hazardassessment and mitigation

In addition to the general recommendations made fornatural disaster reduction, the following were formulatedfor action on assessment and mitigation of volcanic haz-ards to reduce the number of casualties resulting fromvolcanic eruptions:

1. A methodology should be developed for assessingthe significance of volcanic risk (i.e. in percentage of GNP(gross national product) or by a similar indicator).

2. A hazard booklet, including a map, should be pre-pared by scientists in each country in the local language foreach potentially active volcano in that country.

3. A concerted effort should be made to inform andeducate the general public regarding volcanic hazards,using all possible means.

4. In addition, the following other specific activitieswere recommended for implementation:

(a) Improved monitoring of major sources of vol-canic risks not sufficiently covered so far (forexample, Savo, Solomon Islands; Iraya, Philip-pines; Doma Peaks, Mt. Yelia, and Mt. Victory,Papua new Guinea);

(b) Preparation of an inventory of volcanic tsunamirisks in the region;

(c) Age-dating of volcanoes;

(d) Promotion of national databases.

5. Recommended training and information exchangeactivities were:

(a) On-the spot training on "Decade" volcanoes,identified as particularly appropriate by the In-ternational Association of Volcanology andChemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI);

(b) Arrangement of exchange visits at times of erup-tion;

(c) Training for medical specialists to understandthe problems associated with volcanic eruptions.

6. Collaboration with meteorologists would be usefulfor obtaining upper wind measurements, and close co-operation with the International Civil Aviation Organiza-tion (ICAO) would help to avoid volcanic-related airlinedisasters.

7. Promotion of the use of satellite telemetry for vol-canic monitoring was also recommended.

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Annex I

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS

AUSTRALIA

Mr. R.K. Ellis, Executive Officer, Australian IDNDR Co-ordination Committee, Natural Disaster Organization, DicksonACT.

BANGLADESH

Mr. Mohiuddin Azad, Joint Secretary, Ministry of Relief,Dhaka

CHINA

Mr. Chen Hong, Director, Office of China National Com-mittee for the IDNDR, Ministry of Civil Affairs, Beijing

Mr. Wang Ang-Sheng, Vice President of RCND, ChineseAcademy of Science, Member of Experts Committee, ChinaNational Committee for the IDNDR, Institute of AtmosphericPhysics, Beijing

Mr. Wang Juemou, Deputy Director, Hydrological Fore-casting and Water Control Centre, Department of Hydrol-ogy, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing

Mr. Fan YongXiang, State Meteorological Administra-tion, Beijing

FIJI

Mr. Meli Bainimarama, Permanent Secretary, Ministry ofFijian Affairs and Rural Development, Suva

HONG KONG

Mr. Lau Chi Kwan Robert, Assistant Director, Royal Ob-servatory

INDIA

Mr. B. Narasimhan, Joint Secretary, Department of Agri-culture and Co-operation, New Delhi

Mr. A. Subbiah, Under Secretary, Department of Agricul-ture and Co-operation, New Delhi

Mr. G.S. Mandal, Deputy Director-General, Meteorologi-cal Department, New Delhi

INDONESIA

Mr. Aspan Sudiro Danuatmodjo, Deputy Assistant forDisaster Management to Director-General for Social As-sistance Development/Secretary of BAKORNAS, Indone-sia Disaster Management Centre, Jakarta

Mr. Suparto Siswowidjoyo, Volcanological Survey, Di-rectorate General of Geology and Mineral Resources, Ministryof Mines and Energy, Bandung

Mr. S.W. Rubiyanto, Chief of Sub Directorate of ErosionControl and Disaster Prevention, Directorate of Rivers,Ministry of Public Works, Jakarta

ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN

Mr. Mohammad AH Peyrovi, Head, Office of the Interna-tional Economic Agencies, Ministry of Foreign Affairs,Tehran

Mr. Mohammad Ali Sarmadi Rad, Adviser to the DeputyForeign Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Tehran

JAPAN

Mr. Kenji Shimizu, First Secretary and Deputy PermanentRepresentative of Japan to ESCAP, Embassy of Japan,Bangkok

Mr. Motosuke Tanaka, Councellor, Disaster PreventionBureau, National Land Agency, Tokyo

Mr. Tadashi Itoh, Disaster Prevention Bureau, NationalLand Agency, Tokyo

LAO PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

Mr. Kounh Sengdara, Director, Department of Meteorol-ogy and Hydrology, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry,Vientiane

MALAYSIA

Mr. Ferng Meow Chong, Director of Hydrology, Depart-ment of Irrigation and Drainage, Kuala Lumpur

Annex I 15

MONGOLIA

Mr. Lazhani Ganbaatar, Chief, Central Seismic Station,Institute of Geology, Academy of Sciences, Ulan Bator

MYANMAR

Mr. Ohn Maung, Director General, Department of Meteor-ology and Hydrology, Yangon

Mr. Saw Thein, Director General, Department of Reliefand Resettlement, Yangon

PHILIPPINES

Mr. Raymundo S. Punongbayan, Director, Philippine In-stitute of Volcanology and Seismology, Quezon City

Ms. M.L.C. Mijares, Director, Philippine Atmospheric,Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration(PAGASA), Quezon City

REPUBLIC OF KOREA

Mr. Kyung-Sup Shin, Director, NWP Division, KoreaMeteorological Administration, Seoul

SINGAPORE

Capt. Devendran Selvarajoo, Staff Officer, Medical Serv-ice (Hqs.) Ministry of Defence

SOLOMON ISLANDS

Mr. Emilio Bulu, Under Secretary, Ministry of HomeAffairs, Honiara

SRI LANKA

Mr. K.S. Senanayake, Director, National Building Re-search Organization, Ministry of Policy Planning and Im-plementation, Colombo

THAILAND

Prof. Dr. Vichit Punyahotra, Secretary-General, NationalSafety Council, Office of the Prime Minister, Bangkok

Sr. Lt. Sukit Yensuang R.N.T., Senior Expert, Analysisand Forecast, Meteorological Department, Bangkok

Mr. Damri Watanasingha, Deputy Director-General, De-partment of Local Administration, Ministry of Interior,Bangkok

Mr. Amnuey Somsin, Hydrologist, Hydrology Division,Royal Irrigation Department, Bangkok

TONGA

Mr. Maliu M. Takai, Assistant Secretary, Ministry ofWorks, Nuku'alofa

UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS

Prof. Yu. S. Sedunov, Deputy Chairman, USSR StateCommittee for Hydrometeorology, Moscow

Mr. V.A. Nebenzia, Third Secretary, Department of Inter-national Economic Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs,Moscow

Ms. E.L. Pedan, Officer, USSR State Committee forHydrometeorology, Moscow

VIET NAM

Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Dong, Chief, Flood and Storm ControlSection, Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control,Ministry of Water Resources, Hanoi

UNITED NATIONS SECRETARIAT

International Decade forNatural DisasterReduction

Mr. Neelam S. Merani,Director, IDNDR Secretariat,Palais des Nations, Geneva

UNITED NATIONS BODIES

United Nations Centrefor Human Settlements(UNCHS)

Mr. Ignacio Armillas,Co-ordinator, Asia and PacificUnit, Technical Co-operationDivision

United Nations Centre for Mr. Isao Tsukagoshi, SeniorRegional Development Disaster Management Planner(UNCRD)

Mr, Shigeto Moto, AssociateExpert

United NationsDevelopmentProgramme (UNDP)

Office of the UnitedNations Disaster ReliefCo-ordinator (UNDRO)

Mr. Abu Y.M. Selim, DeputyRegional Representative

Mr. Dhannan Sunoto,Assistant RegionalRepresentative

Mr. J. Nemec, UNDRO,Geneva

16Part One: Report of the ESCAP/UNDRO regional symposium on the

International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

UNITED NATIONS SPECIALIZED AGENCIES

United NationsEducational, Scientificand Cultural Organiza-tion (UNESCO)

World HealthOrganization

World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO)

Mr. Michio Hashizume,Programme Specialist, Divisionof Earth Sciences, Paris

Dr. Han TunWHO Liaison Officer withESCAP, Bangkok

Dr. B.K. Verma, Consultant,WHO Regional Office forSouth East Asia, New Delhi

Mr. O.M. Melder, ScientificOfficer, Hydrology and WaterResources Department, Geneva

INTERGOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS

Asian Development Bank Dr. Werner M. Schelzig,(ADB) Senior Officer, Development

Policy Office, Manila

Interim Committee forCoordination ofInvestigations of theLower Mekong Basin

Mr, Le Huu Ti, Senior Adviser,Basin Planning Division

Mr. Thaipuck Thammongkol,Senior Hydrologist

OTHER ORGANIZATION

Asian Institute ofTechnology (AIT)

Prof. Dr. Satyendra P. Gupta,Senior Research Scientist,Asian Disaster PreparednessCenter, AIT, Bangkok

Prof. Tawaichai Tingsanchali,Professor in River Engineer-ing and Flood Control

Col. Brian Ward, Director, AsianDisaster Preparedness Center

RESOURCE PERSONS

Mr, Mike A. Bergin, Assistant Director, Vanuatu Meteoro-logical Service, Port Vila

Prof. Mustafa Ozder Erdik, Professor and Chairman, De-partment of Earthquake Engineering, Bogazici University,Kandilli Observatory, Istanbul

Prof. J.A. Katili, Senior Adviser, Directorate General ofGeology and Mineral Resources, Jakarta

Mr. Tatsuo Konishi, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo

Mr. J.H.Latter, D.S.I.R. Geology and Geophysics Division,Wellington

Mr. S.N.Chaturvedi, Deputy Director General, GeologicalSurvey of India, Department of Mines, Ministry of Steeland Mines, New Delhi

Prof. V.V.N. Murty, Professor of Agricultural and FoodEngineering, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok

Mr. Masashi Nishihata, Assistant Director, Disaster Pre-vention and Restoration Division, River Bureau, Ministryof Construction, Tokyo

Prof. Prinya Nutalaya, Professor of Geotechnical Engineering,Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok

Mr. Nobuo Shuto, Disaster Control Research Center, Tohoku,University, Sendai, Japan

Mr. Ken-Ichi Tokida, Head, Ground Vibration Division,Earthquake Disaster Prevention Department, Public WorksResearch Institute, Ministry of Construction, Tokyo

Mr. George Whitehouse, 23 Rangers Avenue, Mosman,N.S.W. Australia 2088.

OBSERVERS

Ms. Sumalee Prachuab, Meteorological Department,Bangkok

Ms. Nongnat Ouprasitwong, Meteorological Department,Bangkok

Ms. OranutPaisarnuchapong, Meteorological Department,Bangkok

Mr. Gary Johnson, GRID-Bangkok, AIT, Bangkok

SECRETARIAT

Mr. Guangchang Shi Chief, Natural ResourcesDivision

Mr, Cengiz Ertuna Chief, Water ResourcesSection, Natural ResourcesDivision

Mr. Y.N. Steklov Economic Affairs Officer, WaterResources Section, NaturalResources Division

Annex I 17

Ms. Marcia M. Brewster Economic Affairs Officer, WaterResources Section, NaturalResources Division

Mr. Minoru Kuriki

Mr. R.A.R. Oliver

Mr. I.H. Siddiqui

Expert on Flood LossPrevention, Water ResourcesSection, Natural ResourcesDivision

Associate Information Officer,Water Resources Section,Natural Resources Division

Regional Adviser on WaterResources, Water ResourcesSection, Natural ResourcesDivision

Mr. P.J. Bakker

Mr. John Rau

Mr. B. Orsini

Mr. S.P. Upadhyay

Chief, Mineral ResourcesSection, Natural ResourcesDivision

Economic Affairs Officer,Mineral Resources Section,Natural Resources Division

Economic Affairs Officer,Agriculture and RuralDevelopment Division

Chief, Least DevelopedCountries Section, DevelopmentPlanning Division

Part One: Report of the ESCAP/UNDRO regional symposium on the18 International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

Annex II

PROGRAMME OF THE SYMPOSIUM

Monday 11 February 1991

0800-0845 Registration

0900-0930 Opening session

Welcome address by Mr. S.A.M.S. Kibria, Executive Secretary, ESCAPStatement by Mr, N.S. Merani, Director, IDNDR SecretariatStatement by Mr. K. Shimizu, Deputy Permanent Representative of Japan to ESCAP

0930-0945 Election of officersAdoption of the agenda

1000-1200 Session I: International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction: 1. Background and aims;2. Relevance to countries of the ESCAP region;3. Results of IDNDR International Conference 1990, Japan

IDNDR Secretariat N.S. MeraniUNDRO J. NemecESCAP secretariat C. ErtunaUnited Nations Centre for Regional Development I. TsukagoshiIDNDR Promotion office M. Tanaka and T. Itoh

1330-1500 Session II: General overview of disasters in the ESCAP region.

Disasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods in the ESCAP region and preparedness andprevention measures for mitigation G. Whitehouse

Assessment and mitigation of earthquakes:South-East Asia (selected countries) P. Nutalaya

Himalayan region M. Erdik

1530-1630 Assessment and mitigation of volcanic disasters in thePhilippines and Indonesia J.A. Katili

Assessment and mitigation of droughts V.V.N. Murty

Tuesday 12 February 1991

0830-1030 Session III: International disaster mitigation activities

International and regional disastermitigation J. Nemec (UNDRO)

Science and technology for natural disasterreduction M. Hashizume (UNESCO)

Meteorological and hydrological aspects of naturaldisaster reduction O.M. Melder (WHO)

Annex II ___ _ _ _ _ — ^ 19

Health-related risks associated with naturaldisasters B.K. Verma (WHO)

Mitigation of the effects of earthquakes on human

settlements I. Armillas (UNCHS)

1100-1200 Session IV: Regional disaster mitigation programmes

Asian Disaster Preparedness CenterB. Ward (Asian Institute of Technology)

Regional study on disaster mitigationM.W. Schelzig (Asian Development Bank)

Flood forecasting on the upper and lower reaches of the

Mekong River Le Huu Ti (Interim Mekong Committee)

1330-1600 Session V: Parallel working groups for presentation and discussion of case studies

Working Group 1. Cyclones/typhoons and floods

Working Group 2. Volcanic and seismic hazards

Working Group 3. Droughts

Wednesday 13 February 1991

0830-1030 Session VI: Special session on the impact of natural disasters on least developed, land-lockedand island countries

I Overview S.P. Upadhyay; Case studies! South Pacific J.H. Latter! Bangladesh M. Azad

Vanuatu M. Bergin

! 1100-1200 Session VII: Laws and regulations required for disaster responsesi

1330-1600 . Session VIII: Parallel working group sessions for discussion of community-level responses

iI to natural disasters

Working Groups 1, 2 and 3 as in Session V

Thursday 14 February 1991

0830-1200 Session IX: Parallel working group sessions to formulate policies on disaster reduction

(Working Groups 1, 2 and 3 will all discuss three phases oi disaster reduction)

1. Pre-disaster assessment and prevention

Long-term structural measures to reduce disasters: Large-scale engineered projects,disaster-resistant construction techniques, etc.

Long-term non-structural preventive measures: hazard mapping and risk analysis,legal framework, building codes, land-use regulations, disaster insurance, taxincentives, etc.

Part One: Report of the ESCAP/UNDRO regional symposium on the20 International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

2. Emergency preparedness and early warning systems

Early warning networks and forecastingCommunity-level responsesEmergency measures: evacuation, mobilization of medical assistance and necessarysupplies.

3. Post-disaster rehabilitation

ReconstructionResettlement

1330-1600 Session X: Formulation of framework of action for natural disaster reduction in the ESCAP

region

Friday 15 February 1991

0930-1130 Adoption of the report

1130-1200 Closure of the Symposium

1230-1800 Field trip (optional)

Annex III 21

Annex III

IDNDR INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 1990 JAPAN:MAJOR TASKS IDENTIFIED

To raise the level of awareness of the policy makersof each country of the importance of disaster coun-termeasures (prevention, preparedness, relief andrecovery).

To disseminate disaster prevention knowledge andenhance awareness of disasters on a broad basis (notonly among individuals but also among private en-terprises and the mass media); to transmit to othersthe lessons learned from disaster experiences anddisseminate disaster prevention ideas, and educatechildren about disasters and prevention; and to compilethe manuals necessary for such efforts.

To maintain comprehensive records of natural disas-ters, so that the experience and knowledge gainedwill not be lost to future generations and other countries;to promote the exchange of information on disasterexperiences among developing countries.

To develop human resources and organizations fordisaster mitigation activities; to introduce trainingcourses and organized strategic centres for this pur-pose.

To organize volunteers to carry out disaster mitiga-tion activities, and to formulate guidelines for theeffective utilization of all volunteers who may offertheir services at the time of an emergency.

To collect and edit information and statistics ondisasters; to compile and issue white papers on dis-aster mitigation activities in each and every country.

To improve the means of communicating disasterinformation (both hardware and software), and totrain personnel to understand such information accu-rately and respond appropriately.

8. To strengthen the international network for collect-ing information on disaster prevention and promotemutual exchange of information (for example, me-teorological information) among the countries con-cerned.

9. To provide technical guidance and prepare manualson the dissemination of disaster prevention technology(for example, earthquake-resistant building designcodes).

10. To prepare hazard maps and formulate land-use planswhich incorporate the disaster prevention component.

11. To take necessary disaster prevention measures inresponse to the potential danger of disasters causedby the concentration of population and urban functionsin metropolitan areas.

12. To assess the possibility of damage to communica-tion systems in a highly industrialized society, and totake necessary preventive measures.

13. To send advisory missions, when requested by disas-ter-prone countries, to recommend comprehensivedisaster prevention/preparedness plans for disastermitigation.

14. To provide orderly emergency relief assistance thatwill meet the actual needs of a disaster-strickencountry.

15. To promote not only emergency relief assistance butalso assistance for the recovery of basic infrastructureand other facilities, recognizing the crucial need forassistance in restoration and rehabilitation after dis-asters.

22Part One: Report of the ESCAP/UNDRO regional symposium on the

International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

Annex IV

LIST OF DOCUMENTS

Title

Provisional agenda (NR/IDNDR/L.l)

An overview of disasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods in theESCAP region and the existing preparedness and prevention measuresfor disaster mitigation in the vulnerable countries (NR/IDNDR/1)

Case studies on preparedness and response measures to disaster caused bycyclones/typhoons and floods (NR/IDNDR/2)

Volcanic and seismic hazard mitigation programmes in Indonesia (NR/IDNDR/3)

Background paper for policies on reduction of disasters caused by typhoons/cyclones and floods (NR/IDNDR/4)

Impact of natural disasters on the least developed and island countries of theESCAP region (NR/IDNDR/5)

Tsunamis, their effects and defence works (NR/IDNDR/6)

Earthquake disaster and approach to damage reduction (NR/IDNDR/7)

Characteristics of storm surges, focused on the Japaness case (NR/IDNDR/8)

Disaster preparedness and management in Pakistan (NR/IDNDR/9)

Hazards review, disaster prevention and preparedness programmes inMyanmar (NR/IDNDR/10)

Natural disasters in Vanuatu-the threat and the response (NR/IDNDR/11)

Monitoring, forecasting and mitigation of volcanic eruptions along the activeconvergent margin of the Indonesian and Philippine region vol. I, ThePhilippines (NR/IDNDR/12)

Monitoring, forecasting and mitigation of volcanic eruptions along the activeconvergent margin of the Indonesian and Philippine region, vol. II,Indonesia (NR/IDNDR/13)

Damage from floods and mitigation measures in Malaysia (NR/IDNDR/14)

Assessment and mitigation of droughts in the Asia and Pacific region(NR/IDNDR/15)

Earthquake disasters, assessment and management in Indonesia(NR/IDNDR/16)

Author

Secretariat

Secretariat

Secretariat

Adjat Sudradjat

Secretariat

Secretariat

N. Shuto

Ken-Ichi Tokida

Tatsuo Konishi

Sh. Zia lid Din Ahmed

Government of Myanmar

W.M. Longworth andM.A. Bergin

J.A. Katili

J.A. Katili

Ferng Meow Chong

V.V.N. Murty

Secretariat

Annex IV 23

Title

Assessment and mitigation of earthquakes: Selected areas ofSouth-east Asia

Volcanic hazard risk, and risk reduction in the south-west Pacific(New Zealand to Papua New Guinea)

Seismicity, earthquake disasters, hazard vulnerability and earthquake riskreduction in South Asia

ESCAP's role in natural disaster reduction in Asia and the Pacific

Major natural disasters which affect Australia

Natural hazards in India: Status and strategies

An engineering approach to disaster counter-measures of lahar flow hazardsdue to volcanic eruptions: A case study of Ml. Kelud, East Java,Indonesia

Natural disasters and meteorological warning systems in India

Meteorological and hydrological aspects of natural disasters

Indonesian disaster preparedness and disaster management

Atmospheric disasters in China and countermeasures to them

Flood disaster reduction of the Lower Mekong Basin

Country paper of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam

A brief discussion on the strategy of serious natural disaster reduction

To strengthen the co-operation of the Asia-Pacific region in reducing naturaldisasters

Human settlements and natural disasters

Mitigating the effects of natural disasters on human settlements

The Tongan experience

UNDRO's role and projected activities in the first phase of the InternationalDecade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)

IDNDR-rclated activities at the United Nations Centre lor RegionalDevelopment

Brief information about Mongolia

Natural disaster: Fiji experience

Author

Prinya. Nutalaya

J.H. Latter

Mustafa O. Erdik

ESCAP Secretariat

Raymond K. Ellis

S.N. Chaturvedi

S.W. Rubiyanto

G.S. Mandal

O.M. Melder

JusufTalib

Wang Ang-Sheng,Fan Zhen and XinMiao-Xin

Le Huu Ti andThaipuck

Thammongkol

Nguyen Ngoc Dong

Wang Ang-Sheng

Chen Hong

United Nations Centre forHuman Settlements (Habitat)

Ignacio Armillas

Ministry of Works, Tonga

J. Nemec

H. Sazanami andI. Tsukagoshi

Government of Mongolia

Government of Fiji

24Part One: Report of the ESCAP/UNDRO regional symposium on the

International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

Title

Practical measures for mitigation of water-related natural disasters in theESCAP region

Disaster prevention in Japan for the IDNDR (1990-1999)

A case of the great flood in the Han River basin, Republic of Korea,in September 1990

Typhoon disaster and prevention measures in China

Major natural disasters in India-Incidence and management approach

UNEP profile

Landslide disaster mitigation in Sri Lanka

Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS)

Solomon Island Information Paper

Impact of natural disasters on Bangladesh

Natural disasters in Thailand

The background paper on natural disasters in the USSR in 1990

1DNDR promotion in Japan and the results of the IDNDR InternationalConference 1990 Japan and Tadashi Itoh

Emergency Preparedness and Response Programme

Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre

Regional study on disaster mitigation

Author

M. Nishihata

Ministry ofConstruction, Japan

Kyung-Sup Shin

Fan YongXiang

B. Narasimhan

United Nations EnvironmentProgramme

Kirti Sri Senanayake

United Nations EnvironmentProgramme

Ministry of Home Affairs,Solomon Islands

Mohiuddin Azad

Meteorological Department,Thailand

Union of SovietSocialist Republics

Motosuke Tanaka

World Health Organization

Asian Institute of Technology(AIT)

Asian Development Bank(ADB) and Asian DisasterPreparedness Centre(ADPC), AIT

PART TWO

TECHNICAL BACKGROUND PAPERS ONWATER-RELATED NATURAL DISASTERS

IN COUNTRIES OF THE ESCAPREGION

1. Overview of natural disasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods in countries of the ESCAPregion and existing preparedness and prevention measures in the vulnerable countries 27

I. OVERVIEW OF NATURAL DISASTERS CAUSED BY CYCLONES/TYPHOONSAND FLOODS IN COUNTRIES OF THE ESCAP REGION AND EXISTING

PREPAREDNESS AND PREVENTION MEASURESIN THE VULNERABLE COUNTRIES

A. Introduction

Data available on the occurrence of tropical cyclonesand related storm surges and floods in countries of theESCAP region confirm that these climatic hazards occurduring defined seasons and in specific zones. Damageresulting from these water-related hazards is common butwhen their intensity reaches extreme proportions, causingwidespread destruction and loss of life beyond the capacityof the affected country to manage, they are classified asdisasters. Collectively, these hazards constitute the majorrecurring natural disasters of the region and are responsi-ble for the greatest loss of life, disruption of populationsand destruction of property.

The available data also show that while not all theESCAP countries are ravaged by tropical cyclones, veryfew of them are free from damaging floods. The data tendto indicate that although tropical cyclones and associatedstorm surges are liable to cause the most fatalities, floodsare the most frequently occurring disaster and are liable tocause the greatest total damage. The distribution of deathand damage in the countries of the region is related to anumber of factors which include each country's vulnerabilityto cyclones and/or floods, population density and concen-tration, and level of economic development. Many of theoccupied areas in the disaster vulnerable countries involvean element of risk and contribute to the magnitude of thedisaster. For example, those areas comprise the cycloneprone low-lying coastal areas and the flood-prone alluvia)flood plains. It is a matter of record that most of thegreatest disasters of the region have occurred in the low-lying coastal areas as a result of tropical cyclones andfloods. Growing populations and their over-concentrationin the cyclone and flood vulnerable areas are increasing therisk of major disasters.

Until recently, most of the disaster-prone countrieshave directed their efforts towards disaster relief and post-disaster activities. However, the continual occurrence ofthese disasters is influencing most governments of theregion to consider the implementation of comprehensivedisaster prevention and preparedness to mitigate the impactof these disasters. Under this programme, all methods andtasks necessary to protect the population and to ensure itsrecovery form the effects of disasters caused by tropicalcyclones and floods are considered and used when appro-

priate. By definition, disaster prevention covers the long-term policies and activities and is achieved by using per-manent controls, structural and non-structural, which areimplemented in advance of the disaster. On the other hand,disaster preparedness covers the short-term measures, whichare essentially non-structural in nature and which are plannedin advance but carried out during the emergency.

To encourage those countries to realize improveddisaster planning, a number of United Nations agencieswhich have an involvement in the field of disaster manage-ment are providing tangible support. In particular, jointprogrammes sponsored by the Economic and Social Com-mission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the WorldMeteorological Organization (WMO) have led to the for-mation of committees with membership drawn from countriesaffected by cyclones and floods. The activities of twocommittees, namely the Typhoon Committee and the Panelon Tropical Cyclones, have resulted in substantial progressbeing made in the provision of scientific and technicaladvice on disaster mitigation. This advice is in the form ofmanuals and guidelines and covers the full range of conceptsand principles applying to disaster mitigation and management.In addition, the agencies and the committees maintain andimplement action programmes under the five componentsof meteorology, hydrology, disaster prevention and pre-paredness, training and research. These programmes havealready resulted in some significant gains in disaster pre-paredness activities, especially the improvement of tropicalcyclone and flood forecasting systems. The timely andmore reliable warnings which can now be issued are responsiblefor the saving of many lives and a significant reduction indamage.

To be effective, however, the disaster prevention andpreparedness programmes must be supported by efficientresponse and rehabilitation activities should a disasteroccur. As part of its function, the Office of the UnitedNations Disaster Relief Co-ordinator (UNDRO) providessupport to those countries which suffer from a disaster bycoordinating the relief activities of all potential donors.Further support is provided by non-government agencies,such as the League of Red Cross Societies, especially inthe relief and rehabilitation phases of disaster management.

Achievements in implementing disaster preventionplans throughout the region have been varied. While the

28Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

lack of funding is usually the major obstacle to disasterprevention activities, there are a number of other factorswhich have slowed progress. The formulation of compre-hensive disaster prevention plans should be based on theidentification of the hazard by risk analysis. Structuralsolutions to mitigate the hazard will follow normally onceihe potential risks have been defined. The non-structuralsolutions which rely heavily on land-use regulations andbuilding codes of most developing countries are limited.S uch regulations cannot be enforced without the support ofboth the government and the local people and this will inmany cases require a significant change in social attitudesand conditions.

A review of the disasters suffered by the countries ofthe region clearly indicates that if effective measures aretaken to deal with disasters caused by tropical cyclonesand floods, substantial reductions in loss of life, injuries,property and social and economic infrastructure will beachieved.

This paper provides an overview of the nature oftropical cyclones, storm surges and floods which afflict theESCAP region and the range of possible prevention andpreparedness measures which are being employed or con-templated to combat the effects of disasters. It also at-tempts to appraise the activities being undertaken by somecountries and organizations to improve the standard ofdisaster management throughout the region.

B. Tropical cyclones

1. General

Typhoons and tropical cyclones are two differentnames which are used in the ESCAP region to describe thesame meteorological phenomenon. Depressions whichform over the sea in the tropics and develop into intensestorms are called "typhoons" in the north-west Pacific andare known as "tropical cyclones" in the south-west IndianOcean, in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, in pans ofthe South Pacific and along the northern coasts of Aus-tralia. For the purpose of this paper, the term tropicalcyclone is taken to be synonymous with typhoon.

A single tropical cyclone may affect large areas andmay have tremendous destructive potential. During thelife of a tropical cyclone, which can last from several daysto several weeks, the energy released can be extremelyhigh and spread over a wide area. During its lifetime, atropical cyclone may vary in intensity and destructivepower as it progresses along a largely unpredictable track.It may cause loss of life and damage in a number ofcountries during its passage. Many tropical cyclones formbut do not reach high intensity, while others travel far awayfrom land areas, having little destructive effect.

The violent winds and torrential rainfalls which ac-company well-developed tropical cyclones can result inextreme damage over land areas. When the destructiveforce of these depressions combines with the devastatinghazard of a storm surge in low-lying coastal areas, tropicalcyclones become the most deadly disturbances of the tropics.The heavy and prolonged rainfall which accompanies tropicalcyclones often produces major flooding and can cause lossof life and property damage of disastrous proportions.

2. Nature and characteristics

Tropical cyclones are low-pressure systems or de-pressions around which the air circulates in an anti-clockwisedirection in the northerly hemisphere but in a clockwisedirection in the southern hemisphere. Tropical cyclonesform over the open sea in an area where the sea surfacetemperature is 25°C or higher. They are usually classifiedaccording to the surface wind strength measured near the"eye" or centre of the disturbance. The two categories forthese disturbances are: wind speeds which range from 17to 32 metres per second; and wind speeds in the range of 32to 85 metres per second. In the more intense tropicalcyclones, wind speeds greater than 32 metres per secondoccur and the tropical cyclone is then said to be at fullhurricane force.

The areas of occurrence and the names ascribed tothe disturbances under the above classification are given intable 1 below.

Table 1. Tropical cyclones: areas of occurrence andcategories

REGION RANGE OF MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS

(METRES PER SECOND)

17-32 32-85

Western North Pacific Ocean

Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

South Indian Ocean

South Pacific Ocean

Tropical cyclone

Cyclone

Tropicaldepression

Tropical

depression

Typhoon

Severecyclone

Tropicalcyclone

Cyclone

The period of maximum frequency for tropical cy-clones is broadly related to the occurrence of the summermonsoon which begins over South-east Asia by the end ofMay and extends to north-western India and central Chinaby mid-July. During the southern hemisphere, the monsoonmoves southward across northern Australia. The frequen-cies of occurrence of tropical cyclones by areas and monthsare given in table 2.

1. Overview of natural disasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods in countries of the ESCAPregion and existing preparedness and prevention measures in the vulnerable countries 29

Table 2. Tropical cyclones: frequency of occurrence

AREA

Northern Hemisphere

Western NorthPacific Ocean

Bay of Bengal andArabian Sea

Southern Hemisphere

South Pacific Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Jan

0.6

2.0

0.5

Feb

0.3

2.0

0.5

Mar

0.6

1.9

1.8

Apr

0.8

0.3

0.7

2.7

May

1.2

0.7

0.1

1.7

Jun

2.1

0.6

0.1

0.4

Jul

4.6

0.5

Aug

6.2

0.4

Sep

5.7

0.4

Oct

4.6

1.0

Nov

2.9

1.1

0.1

Dec

1.4

0.4

0.7

Some of the significant characteristics of tropicalcyclones are:

(a) The magnitude of force of a tropical cyclone is ameasure of its destructive power. Its damagingeffect is produced by a combination of strength,gustiness and persistence, which can be indi-cated by wind force.

(b) Frequency describes how often a tropical cy-clone of given magnitude may be expected tooccur on average. For example, the greatestfrequency of formation of tropical cyclones oc-curs in the region east of the Philippines. Theaverage frequency of these events is greater inthe northern latitudes compared to the southernlatitudes of the ESCAP region.

(c) Duration refers to the length of time over whichthe tropical cyclone persists. It may last from afew hours to several days or longer.

(d) Areal extent refers to actual area affected by thetropical cyclone. Depending on the intensity ofa tropical cyclone, its area of influence may belimited to a narrow path or its destructive powermay extend over a large area.

(e) Rate of onset is the time interval between the is-suance of the first forecast and arrival of maxi-mum impact of the tropical cyclone. This timeinterval determines the amount of time availableto implement emergency operations and disasterrelief operations.

(f) Seasonability refers to the season of the yearduring which tropical cyclones are experienced.These disturbances usually occur during knownperiods of the year and reach a peak frequencyover a span of several months.

3. Regional occurrence

Tropical cyclones occur more frequently in Asiathan in any other part of the world. These atmosphericdisturbances generally originate over the ocean south oflatitude 20°N and north of latitude 20°S. In the ESCAPregion, the most frequent formation of tropical cyclonesoccurs over the north-west Pacific Ocean just east of thePhilippines. The main tropical cyclone period in the north-west Pacific extends from July to October. Tropical cy-clones which are spawned in this region are relativelyregular in their development and movement. Once formed,they generally track westward and may later turn north-west, affecting the Philippine Islands first and moving onto the coast of Asia, particularly early in summer, or thenmay recurve north-eastward towards Japan.

Those tropical cyclones which rarely continue tomove westward across Indochina and Myanmar tend tolose their intensity after crossing the coastline. They mayredevelop, however, over the Bay of Bengal and continueto move westward over India or recurve northward to-wards Bangladesh.

In the Bay of Bengal, in addition to those comingfrom the north-west Pacific, tropical cyclones usually de-velop over the southern section of the Bay and move ineither a westerly or northerly direction to affect India or

30Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

Bangladesh. These tropical cyclones are more likely tooccur towards the end of the monsoon season in Octoberand November and are often accompanied by storm surges.Extremely heavy rainfall which is generated by thesetropical cyclones, may result in severe flooding.

Some tropical disturbances track across India ordevelop over the Arabian Sea and move towards Pakistanor eastern Islamic Republic of Iran. The occurrence ofdamaging tropical cyclones which affect these two coun-tries is not an annual event.

Tropical cyclones originating in the southern hemi-sphere within the ESCAP region, have a relatively exten-sive spawning area that includes the Indian Ocean, thesouth Pacific Ocean, the Timor Sea, the Arafura Sea, theGulf of Carpentaria and the Coral Sea. Frequently thetropical cyclones which form to the east of Australia trackwest-south-westwards before either encountering the Aus-tralian continent or recurving to the south-east. Manycyclones in the zone around Australia exhibit quite erraticmovement and have low travel speeds compared to thenorthern hemisphere depressions. The frequency of occur-rence of tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere isabout half the number generated in the northern hemi-sphere. These disturbances usually occur during the periodDecember to April each year.

C. Storm surges

1. General

Storm surge is the term used to describe the rise ofthe mean level of the ocean which occurs as a tropicalcyclone approaches a coastline. Over the open sea the lowatmospheric pressure at the centre of a tropical depressioncauses the water below it to rise above the level of thesurrounding ocean. As the cyclone approaches the coast,winds may pile up the already high sea waters against theshoreline, thus causing an additional rise in the water level.

as the rise in sea level may reach several metres or moreabove normal, quickly inundating the low-lying areas ofthe coast. Thus, in assessing ^he risk of storm surge,normal tidal oscillations must be included. This combinedeffect of surge and tide is termed "storm tide".

A particularly dangerous feature of storm surge isthat it may occur several hours in advance of the landfall ofa tropical cyclone and cause severe flooding at a time whenthe evacuation of people is still in progress. If a tropicalcyclone which possesses a low central pressure and strongwinds occurs in shallow coastal waters and coincides withhigh tide conditions, the loss of life and material damagemay be extremely high.

Most of the great disasters associated with tropicalcyclones have been caused by storm surges. When atropical cyclone approaches the coast, the accompanyingstorm surge has a greater potential for heavy loss of lifethan any other meteorological phenomenon.

3. Regional experience

Areas of the ESCAP region where storm surges aremost severe lie in the tropical belt where cyclones occur.However, other combinations of conditions have resultedin disastrous storm surges in extra-tropical and temperateregions.

Disastrous inundation of coastal zones as a result ofstorm surge have been experienced in seaboard countriesand areas, including Australia, Bangladesh, China, Japan,Philippines, Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Thailand andthe Pacific island countries. The northern sector of the Bayof Bengal is reported to be most vulnerable to storm surge,where coastal geometry exacerbates the formation of theseabnormal rises in sea level.

D. Floods

2. Nature and characteristics

While the general effect of waves and swell mayextend a considerable distance from the cyclone centre, thesurge itself is usually restricted to a limited section ofcoastline. Although a storm is a fairly rare event, it is adevastating hazard. It occurs with high winds, waveaction, often intense rainfall and major flooding, and car-ries with it the potential for substantial loss of both life andproperty. Its effects are more pronounced in wide andshallow bays exposed to the tracks of tropical cyclones.

When the landfall of a tropical cyclone coincideswith a high tide, the results may be particularly devastating

1. General

Damage from flooding has been increasing in mostcountries in the ESCAP region, and floods are the mostfrequently occurring and thus the most destructive of allnatural hazards which affect the area. Flooding is a by-product of persistent heavy rain which is usually associatedwith the passage of a tropical cyclone or a monsoonaldepression. It is a natural phenomenon and will occurinevitably from time to time in all rivers and naturaldrainage systems. However, flood disasters are increasingbecause of deforestation, poor land drainage, expandingagriculture and urbanization. All of these activities pro-mote an increased rate of run-off and greater flood peaks.

I. Overview of natural disasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods in countries of the ESCAPregion and existing preparedness and prevention measures in the vulnerable countries 31

As with other natural hazards, floods are beyondhuman control, but they only become a problem because ofman's intrusion and the location of incompatible activitiesin the natural flood plain. Floods are a natural phenomenonand all that can be done is to find ways of mitigating thedamage they cause.

2. Nature and characteristics

Flooding occurs in well-defined areas when the channelsof a river or stream cannot contain run-off from the catchment.This results in overtopping of the river banks and inundationof the adjoining low-lying areas forming the floodplain.Flooding can also result from a combination of high riverflow and storm surge in the lower reaches of coastal riversand in estuaries.

In summary, natural river flooding may arise from:

(a) Heavy and prolonged rainfall in the catchmentof major river systems;

(b) Intense storms of relatively short duration in thecatchments of small watercourses;

(c) Coastal storm surges;

(d) Wind and tide coinciding with high dischargesin the estuaries of a coastal watercourse;

(e) Snow-melt either directly or in combination withheavy rain.

Artificial flooding can be caused by obstructions onfloodplains. These obstructions can be temporary due todebris build up or permanent structures such as bridges orembankments.

Some of the significant characteristics of floods are:

(a) Depth of water - the maximum depth of inunda-tion affects the damage to buildings and cropsand the cost and practicability of structuralmitigation measures;

(b) Duration - the period of inundation is an impor-tant factor in the degree of damage and incon-venience caused; .

(c) Rate of rise - the time taken for the flood to risegoverns the practicability of such approaches asemergency evacuation and flood warnings;

(d) Velocity - high velocity floodwaters create ero-sive forces and hydrodynamic pressures whichaffect the design of levees and floodproofingmeasures;

(e) Frequency - a statistical expression of the aver-age time period between floods equalling orexceeding a given magnitude. Floods that occurfrequently are well remembered by people whileless frequent floods tend to encourage compla-cency and carelessness;

(f) Silt and debris - these not only increase urbanlosses but can, when deposited, reduce channelcapacity, degrade agricultural lands, and chokeflood-passing structures, thus exacerbatingflooding;

(g) Inundated area - extent of the area covered byflood water corresponding to a flood of a givenfrequency;

(h) Seasonability - inundation during the growingseason can have a devastating effect on croppingenterprises whereas at other times flooding andthedeposition of sediment may enhance production.

3. Regional flood behaviour

Most countries in the ESCAP region experience fre-quent and devastating floods. Because of the vast differ-ences in topography, climate and exposure to tropicalcyclones throughout the region, wide variations in thenature and effects of flooding are experienced. Thesevariations range from flash flooding in some countries tolong duration flooding in others. A number of countriesexperience the full range of flood behaviour.

The basic causes of most river flooding in the regionis the incidence of heavy rainfall. Only a few rivers risingin the Himalayas or in countries at higher latitudes areaffected by flood flows from snow-melt. Other factors,such as tidal surge or wind configuration may operateeither to exacerbate an already occurring flood problem orto create a flood problem.

The most devastating flood-producing rainfall canbe that associated with tropical cyclones. Those countriesin the region which experience tropical cyclones usuallysuffer the most destructive floods. When aggravated bywind-induced surge along the coastline, flooding createdby tropical cyclones can reach catastrophic proportions. Ifrainfall intensities are high and the area affected by thetropical cyclone is large, extreme flooding may be experiencedover both small and large river basins.

The size of the basin usually governs the nature offlooding and therefore the type of meteorological event, orevents, which are capable of causing extreme floods. Inthe large river basins of the region flooding is usuallyseasonal and peak discharges can be maintained for long

32Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

periods extending over days or weeks. Flash floods areusually produced on small, steep catchments and charac-terized by the short time of concentration between thestorm occurrence and the arrival of the flood wave at thebasin outlet. This type of flooding is becoming morewidespread, causing an ever-increasing amount of damage,especially in areas which are suffering from growingpopulations and deforestation.

Rivers of the region with large drainage areas whichreceive more or less continuous rainfall during the wetseason, such as the Yangtze, Mekong and Ganges, show afairly uniform increase and decrease of such flow duringthe high water period. On the other hand, the rivers such asthose of north China, Japan and the Republic of Koreawhich receive their flood flow from local convective stormsand occasional tropical cyclones and which have smallerdrainage basins, show marked fluctuations of water levelduring the high water period.

E. Damage assessment

Damage caused by tropical cyclones and floods con-tinues to rise in most countries to the ESCAP region. Thisis because many of the human settlements in the disastervulnerable countries are located in high-risk areas. Theparticularly vulnerable areas are floodplains and low-lyingcoastal regions where the density of population is alreadyhigh and where population growth andeconomic developmentare concerntrated.

Although floods are the most commonly occurringdisasters and cause the greatest total damages, tropicalcyclones are reported to cause the most fatalities. Thedeaths or damages resulting from these two hazards are notuniformly distributed among the ESCAP countries but arerelated to number of factors, including location, vulner-ability, population density and community wealth.

The total damages associated with these two hazardsare usually referred to as tangible and intangible costs. Itis customary to further divide tangible damages into directand indirect categories. Direct damages are of a physicalnature. The physical damages caused by tropical cyclonesstem from the strong winds, heavy and prolonged rainfalland storm surges. Physical damages associated with floodingresult from the actual contact of flood water with goods,crops and structures and involve damage from sediment,debris or other floating objects. Indirect damage covers alldamages which result indirectly from the tropical cycloneor flood and may occur during the event or in the weeks ormonths following. These damages cover the activitieswhich are associated with lost production, disruption tocommunications and the like.

Intangible damages cover those damages which might

be classified more as social than economic. These lossesconcern items that are not normally bought or sold and forwhich market values do not exist, in contrast to tangibledamages which can be evaluated in monetary terms. Themain intangible damages are disruption of personal activi-ties, health impairment and risk to life.

Until 1983 few countries in the ESCAP region werecollecting, compiling and analysing damage data for thepurpose of regional and national planning. Although somedata were collected in most of the countries, these wereused mainly for the evaluation of the magnitude of thedisaster and for allocation of resources for relief andreconstruction. The data were not sufficient for identify-ing the problems on a regional basis or for planning miti-gation measures. The significance of the data for theformulation of the countermeasures was not well recog-nized.

The need for better estimates of the nature and mag-nitude of damages caused by tropical cyclones and floodswas promoted by the Typhoon Committee in 1981. ESCAP,WMO, UNDRO and the League of Red Cross and RedCrescent Societies (LRCS) co-operated to produce a re-vised format which was more detailed and specific that theprevious questionnaire circulated to ESCAP countries.The revised format was adopted in 1983. In addition, aroving seminar was organized by ESCAP in 1983/84 toassist selected Typhoon Committee countries in the ESCAPregion to develop methodologies for the systematic datacollection programmes of damages experienced duringtropical cyclones and floods. The type of informationidentified for collection and compilation was similar tothat included in the revised TCS format and included directdamage caused to human resources, agricultural productsand facilities, public utilities and private properties. Theevaluation of indirect damage to economic and socialactivities was also recommended for inclusion in the sug-gested programme. The categories for damage assessmentare those adopted in the ESCAP Water Resources Journalfor the presentation of such statistics.

Data and information which relate to annual damagesustained as a result of tropical cyclones and floods in theregion are compiled in June issues of the ESCAP WaterResources Journal. The information considered includesloss of life, injuries, population affected, damage to build-ings, agricultural area affected and area of cropland dam-aged.

Not all countries providing information on damagecaused by tropical cyclones or floods include a monetaryassessment of damages. Information gleaned from othersources indicates that damage costs attributed to these twophenomena are increasing at a rate of about 4.4 per centannually. However, as these damage costs relate only to

I. Overview of natural disasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods in countries of the ESCAPregion and existing preparedness and prevention measures in the vulnerable countries 33

direct damage, they significantly underestimate the actualdamage. If the value of the additional and significantindirect losses was included, the total monetary valuewould increase substantially.

Not all countries report on a regular basis or providea complete set of statistics. As a result, there are gaps in thechronology of damages presented for the countries con-cerned. Although questions have been raised as to thereliability of these data, the information does serve as ageneral indicator of the disruption and damage that cyclonesand floods inflict on the individual countries. An indica-tion of severity and frequency of disasters which accom-pany these events may be obtained from the tabulations.

A summary of major disasters caused by tropicalcyclones and floods, based on the information in the WaterResources Journals is presented as table 3. The magnitudeof each disaster is expressed in terms of the number ofpeople killed and the size of population affected.

F. Risk assessment

Risk assessment or the assessment of a country'svulnerability to tropical cyclones, flooding and storm surgeshould be regarded as an essential element in the planningand implementation of measures which are designed toprevent or mitigate the disasters which these hazards maycause. Naturally, if a country is prone to any or all of thesehazards, action of various kinds should be taken in order tosave lives and reduce damage even if detailed risk-evalua-tion studies have not been carried out.

When a tropical cyclone approaches a country, thethreats are threefold — winds, river floods and stormsurges. Although strong or violent winds are a fundamen-tal characteristic of tropical cyclones, it is often the rain-induced river floods and the storm surge which cause theheaviest loss of life and do the greatest damage. In anyplanning for disaster prevention and mitigation, it is rec-ommended that the hazards likely to arise from winds,river floods and storm surges be analysed separately andalso collectively. Composite analyses which take intoaccount all risks should be carried out so that the disasterprevention measures may be comprehensive and effective.In coastal areas, in particular, it may be necessary to makea combined analysis of storm-surge and river-flood fre-quency.

The pattern of wind damage which accompaniestropical cyclones is usually widespread and can be ex-treme, culminating in the large-scale destruction of build-ings. Evaluation of the hazard due to wind and the settingof design criteria to resist wind forces are based on a

frequency analysis of measured wind velocities at specificlocations. Buildings and other structures can be designedto resist these wind forces.

Because of the devastating effect of storm surgesassociated with tropical cyclones, it is necessary to ascer-tain the extent to which a segment of coast is vulnerable tothis hazard. The assessed element of risk associated withstorm surges is converted into an estimate of likely dam-age. This is achieved by a frequency analysis of climatologicaldata on sea level elevation and on relevant meteorologicalelements. Statistical methods are used to estimate thelikelihood of extreme values of surge amplitude and dura-tion. Numerical modelling techniques are used to estimatesurge frequencies in the absence of factual data. The riskassessment of storm surge also includes the considerationof astronomical tide and seeks to maximize the joint occur-rence of these two factors.

It is prudent to accept that all tropical cyclones,whatever their intensity, have the potential to produceheavy rainfall capable of producing river floods. Theextent of damage caused by a flood is a function of thecharacteristics which describe its destructive capability,such as depth, inundated area, water velocity, frequency ofoccurrence, etc. However, rain induced floods can occurseparately as a result of tropical depressions, thunderstorms,etc.

The description and assessment of hazards should beregarded as an essential element of flood prevention andmitigation. If sufficient data of acceptable quality areavailable, it may be feasible to estimate risks in quantita-tive terms for small areas, i.e., at the local level. Thisprocedure is called flood risk mapping. Such maps canplay an essential role in economic and physical planningand in the equitable financing of insurance schemes.

G. Disaster prevention and preparedness

1. General

The key to reducing in the loss of life and materialdamage caused by tropical cyclones, storm surges andfloods throughout the ESCAP region is the adoption ofimproved disaster prevention and preparedness measures.Disaster prevention may be described as measures de-signed to prevent natural phenomena from causing orresulting in disaster or other related emergency situations.It is concerned with the formulation and implementation oflong-range policies and programmes to prevent or elimi-nate the occurrence of disasters on the basis of vulnerabil-ity analysis of all risks. It also includes legislation andregulatory measures principally in the fields of physicaland urban planning, public works and buildings. On the

34Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

Table 3. Summary of major disasters caused by tropical cyclones or floodsin selected countries of the ESCAP region. 1970-1988

Country Year Nature of Hazard Human Casualties

Afghanistan

Australia

Bangladesh

Myanmar

China

Fiji

India

Islamic Republic of Iran

Pakistan

1976

1978

1974

1970

1973

1974

Flood

Flood

Tropical Cyclone

Tropical Cyclone &

Storm Surge

Tropical Cyclone

Flood

1985 Tropical Cyclone

1987 Hood

1988 Flood

1974 Flood

1981 Rood

1986 Tropical Cyclone

1986 Tropical Cyclone

1977 Tropical Cyclone

1983 Tropical Cyclone

1988 Flood

1979 Flood

1986 Flood

1982 Flood

1987 Tropical Cyclone

1973 Flood

1976 Flood

1988 Hood

46 dead

130 dead

350 000 affected

60 dead

More than 225 000 dead

600 000 people affected

1 451 dead

2 000 dead

6 million families affecled

11 000 dead

1.31 million people affected

2 055 dead

25 million people affected

1 644 dead

45 million people affected

1.4 million people affected

1 300 dead

10 million people affecled

430 dead

4 550 injured

2 dead

165 000 affected

10 000 dead

3.5 million people rendered homeless

2 300 dead

53.1 million people affecled

4 910 dead

50 million people affected

800 000 people affected

424 dead

10 000 injured

345 dead

661 injured

200 people dead or injured

160 killed

5 million people affecled

425 killed

10 million houses demolished

510 dead

3.7 million people affected

I. Overview of natural disasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods in countries of the ESCAPregion and existing preparedness and prevention measures in the vulnerable countries 35

Table 3 (continued)

Country Year Nature of Hazard Human Casualties

Philippines

Repulic of Korea

Sri Lanka

Thailand

Tonga

Viet Nam

1976

1978

1981

1987

1971

1977

1987

1987

1981

1975

1980

1988

Tropical Cyclone & Floods

Tropical Cyclone

Tropical Cyclone

Tropical Cyclone

Tropical Cyclone

Hoods

Tropical Cyclone

Roods

Tropical Cyclone

Flooding

Flooding

Hooding

215 dead

621 000 people affected

444 dead

1 000 people injured or missing

236 people killed

600 000 people affected

980 killed

930 injured

2.79 million people affected

225 dead

132 missing

116 000 people affected

277 dead

455 injured

70 000 people affected

343 dead

138 injured

25 000 people affected

381 dead

428 injured

151 000 people affected

Over 1 000 dead

1 million people affected

314 dead

61 dead

832 000 people affected

373 dead

2 000 injured

1.4 million people affected

1982

1971

1978

1980

1983

1985

Tropical Cyclone

Floods

Floods

Floods

Tropical Cyclone

Tropical Cyclone

5 dead

594 dead

643 dead

5 million people affected

459 dead

10 million people affected

658 dead

508 injured

400 000 homes destroyed

900 dead

213 000 houses destroyed

36Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

other hand, disaster preparedness may be described as theactions designed to minimize loss of life and propertydamage and to organize and facilitate timely and effectiverescue, relief and rehabilitation in the case of disaster. It issupported by necessary legislation which comes into forcein disaster situations or similar emergencies which cannotbe avoided. It is also concerned with forecasting andwarning, the education and training of the population, andorganization and management of disaster situations includingthe preparation of operational plans, training of reliefgroups, the stockpiling of supplies and provision of thenecessary funds.

Prevention and preparedness measures are not iso-lated activities, since both can be undertaken together orone can be a continuation of the other. This is because notall disasters can be prevented, and preventative measuresmay fail. Thus, to limit or mitigate the effects of thedisasters which cannot be prevented, certain measureshave to be undertaken to return the community to normal-ity as soon as possible after the event.

As previously stated, disaster prevention and pre-paredness consist of a wide range of measures, some long-term and others short-term, aimed at saving lives andlimiting the amount of damage that might otherwise becaused. Prevention covers the long-term aspects and isconcerned with policies and programmes to prevent oreliminate the occurrence of disasters. Preparedness coversthe short-term measures which are designed to cover theaction necessary during the approach of a possible disas-ter, during the existence of a disaster situation and in theensuing period devoted to relief and rehabilitation. Disas-ter prevention and preparedness is usually accomplishedusing two fundamental approaches. Firstly, it may beachieved using permanent controls, structural or non-structural,designed and developed in advance of the disaster. Sec-ondly, it may be obtained by employing temporary meas-ures, planned in advance, but carried out during the emer-gency.

The destructive power of a tropical cyclone is mani-fested by strong winds, flooding and storm surges. Anydisaster prevention and preparedness system must includewarnings and protective measures against each of theseeffects. Winds are a fundamental property of tropicalcyclones, while flooding and storm surges are consequencesof tropical cyclones and various other causes.

2. Disaster prevention

The principal preventative measures employed tocurb the destructive and injurious effects of tropical cyclonesare building design and construction standards to resistwind and water.

Disaster prevention measures attempt to lessen theimpact of flooding or storm surge on the social and economicconditions of human settlements in floodplains or low-lying coastal areas. The range of preventative controlsadopted to protect development on floodplains includesboth structural measures, such as channel modifications,flood storages and levees, which are designed to reduce theincidence or extent of flooding, and non-structural meas-ures such as flood insurance, zoning restrictions, land-usemanagement, economic incentives, public information andeducation, etc. Non-structural measures are intended tomodify flood susceptibility and flood impact. The range ofmeasures available to protect against the effects of flood-ing is much wider than that available to reduce the impactof tropical cyclones.

Preventative measures to protect low-lying coastalareas against damage from tidal inundation also includestructural and non-structural measures. The principal structuralmeasure involves the construction of embankments capa-ble of withstanding the anticipated storm surge heights andforces. Non-structural measures employ land-use zoningand controls over occupation in high hazard areas. Buildingcontrols are also imposed to restrict building on vulnerableareas. These controls require that flood heights are set at asafe elevation above a given datum.

The selection of the best mix of measures to preventthe occurrence of future flood or storm surge disasters willbe based on the consideration of all the available structuraland non-structural options. The optimum mix of measureswill be based on risk analysis and the economic perform-ance of the overall scheme. Consideration of social andenvironmental factors in addition to the legislative andlegal constrictions should be included in the planningprocess.

3. Disaster preparedness

Disaster preparedness is seen as that action takenwhen the occurrence of a tropical cyclone, flood or stormsurge threatens to become a disaster. Preparedness activitiesare designed to reduce social disruption and losses toexisting property and are an essential component of overalldisaster planning. They can serve in the absence of morepermanent measures to reduce the threat to loss of life andproperty.

The main types of disaster preparedness include:

(a) Forecasting and warning and evacuation fromaffected areas;

(b) Flood fighting;

(c) Relief.

I. Overview of natural disasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods in countries of the ESCAPregion and existing preparedness and prevention measures in the vulnerable countries 37

Depending on the size of the drainage basin, thelength of river and the time of concentration of floodwaterin the main channel, flood forecasts and warnings may beissued well in advance of the arrival of the flood crest onlarge rivers. Flash floods originating on small catchmentspresent special problems and usually require some form offorecasting based on rainfall estimates.

Although the forecasts for cyclones and floods maybe accurate and timely, they may have little or no effects onthe intended recipients if the warning system for dissemi-nation of the forecast is inadequate. Each agency respon-sible for emergency operations should receive promptforecasts and warnings of the changing circumstances sothat action needed to meet the emergency can be achieved.Dissemination of forecasts requires an effective communi-cations system based on radio broadcasts, television,newspapers, telephone and special warning systems.

The evacuation of people from a potential or actualdisaster area is one of the most important elements ofdisaster mitigation. Careful planning is necessary for theefficient evacuation and relief of flood victims. To beeffective, the plan should define hazardous areas and po-tential dangers. However, the difficulty in evacuatingvictims and property can be increased if escape routescannot cope with the traffic volume, if evacuation servicescannot be contacted, or suitable evacuation equipmentsuch as trucks, boats, helicopters, are not available.

Flood fighting can be defined as the taking of precau-tionary measures against disaster at times of flood andstorm-surge. These measure should aim to prevent dam-age or to minimize its extent, to protect life and propertyand, in general, to ensure the safety of the population.Successful flood fighting depends upon good organiza-tion, thorough advance planning, well-trained personneland the effective coordination of operations at local, pro-vincial and national levels. The planning should cover allthose who will be involved from the flood-fighting corps,municipality, town or village officers and the generalpublic to the regional and central government. It involvesthe construction of temporary controls to exclude floodwa-ter from protected areas or the strengthening of existingstructures to ensure protection.

The main aim of relief is to provide immediateassistance to overcome personal hardship and distress,including essential repairs to houses and the repair andreplacement of essential items of furniture and personaleffects. Relief should include the reception and care ofevacuated victims, medical services, etc.

H. Current status of disaster prevention andpreparedness in the ESCAP region

1. Disaster prevention

Many coastal areas of the seaboard countries of theregion which are prone to damage by tropical cyclones andassociated storm surge are experiencing rapid populationgrowth and economic development. The more advancedcountries have implemented long-term protective measuresagainst hazards, such as land use controls, building codesto ensure the structural integrity of new buildings, improvedinfrastructure, such as roads and communications, and theproper design and appropriate siting of essential services.

While most other countries are contemplating thesemeasures, there are a number of obstacles to their adoption.The principal impediment to land use controls is the costand social disruption in the relocation of large numbers ofpeople, especially the poor and underprivileged. It is notan easy task to enforce land use regulations in developingcountries which have little experience in these matters.

Although cyclone resistant design has helped to re-duce the number of casualties and to prevent serious damageto buildings, introducing appropriate building codes tocontrol new buildings can be a difficult task if new mate-rials and foreign building techniques are involved. How-ever, when these codes are adopted, the structural capabil-ity of buildings to withstand the impact of wind forces willbe improved dramatically. In addition, progress has beenmade in developing mitigation measures to improve thesafety of non-engineered structures such as ordinary dwellingsand simple public buildings which are built with localmaterial in the traditional manner. As a consequence, thetoll of human life and the total property damage mayundergo a significant reduction. It should be noted, how-ever, that the opportunity to adapt those measures to exist-ing development is limited.

Almost all countries in the ESCAP region experi-ence severe flood problems at comparatively frequentintervals. Flooding in some countries represents the greatestnatural disaster and its occurrence is becoming more fre-quent especially in urban areas, and causing increased lossof life and destruction of property. This is the result of anumber of factors, which include: increasing concentra-tion of people on flood plains; squatter populations occu-pying floodways; encroachment of development into flood-prone areas; and lack of government action because ofshortage of necessary funds, absence of statutory controlsand insufficient technical capability.

The traditional approach to reducing flood lossesrelies upon the implementation of structural flood mitiga-

38Pan Two: Technical background papers on waler-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

tion measures. The possible range of measures to protectdevelopment on flood plains includes the construction ofdams, levees and channel improvements. Most earlierflood mitigation programmes adopted by individual countrieshave been specific to a city or a discrete agricultural areaand have employed a narrow range of engineering works toprovide a solution to the flooding problem. Althoughsome projects were successful, may of the programmeshave actually exacerbated flood damages for the followingreasons:

(a) The adopted structural measures were inadequateand ineffective because of the adverse site con-ditions;

(b) The flood standard adopted for delineation ofthe flood hazard area was too low;

(c) Increased population was occupying the pro-tected area.

In recent years, most countries have recognized theinadequacies of programmes based solely on structuralmeasures. Numerous attempts have been made to employnon-structural flood loss prevention measures to assist inminimizing losses through exercising control over devel-opment in flood-prone areas. These measures usuallyinvolve a mix of structural measures and, in some circum-stances, provide a comprehensive means of coping with aflood problem. In many cases, however, attempts to for-mulate programmes which include some of the non-struc-tural measures, have met with limited success, especiallythose involving planning controls, acquisition of lands andrelocation of people. Generally, application of large-scalenon-structural measures is inappropriate forexisting developedareas because of costs and social disruption. Only small-scale flood proofing measures such as house raising havelimited application for the protection of those existingbuildings which can withstand the mechanical effects ofraising and where raising can be justified on economicgrounds. Experience indicates that it is not an easy matterto enforce land-use regulations in most ESCAP countries.

The more advanced countries of the region haveaccepted that the model for comprehensive flood lossprevention should be based on the concept of the basin-wide management approach. Under this approach, thewhole basin is considered and an appropriate mix of struc-tural and non-structural measures is incorporated into themanagement plan. By this method, a reasonable degree ofcontrol is exerted over land use and development to ensurethat the natural flood generating capacity of the basin is notexacerbated. To achieve the desired level of management,increased co-operation is required among the agenciesinvolved in the management of land-based natural re-sources.

Before any significant impact in the reduction offlood losses can be made in many countries, it will benecessary for them to make significant progress on thefollowing issues:

(a) Definition of flood-liable lands using flood riskanalysis techniques;

(b) Preparation of comprehensive plans based onthe "whole basin" concept, which consider thebest combination of both structural and non-structural measures together with relevant so-cial, economic and environmental factors;

(c) Formulation of suitable regulations for the con-trol of the future use of the land and the nature ofdevelopment within flood-liable areas with spe-cial provisions being exercised where these landsare substantially developed;

(d) Adoption of flood standards which minimizefuture flood damage and loss of life;

(e) Allocation of adequate funds which reflects arealistic rate of progress in the implementationof flood prevention plans and works.

2. Disaster Preparedness

The organizational response to disasters created bytropical cyclones and floods in most countries of the regionis highly developed, and preparedness activities are seenby many as the most effective means for minimizinglosses, given the current availability of funds and resources.Significant advances have been made in recent years forimproving these measures.

(a) Forecasting and warning

Substantial progress has been made in meteorologi-cal forecasting and warning of tropical cyclones, especiallythrough the regional co-operation of members of the TyphoonCommittee, the Panel on Tropical Cyclones and the TropicalCyclone Committee for the South Pacific. Improved datacollection networks and forecasting techniques have beenintroduced in recent years and these have resulted in theenhanced prediction of tropical cyclone formation andmovement. The improved techniques include: the installa-tion and upgrading of various facilities, such as radar, tele-communications and satellite receiving systems; improvedwarning dissemination; upgraded data collection systems;and better prediction techniques for storm surge warningpurposes. Regional co-operation in the sharing of observa-tions and forecasts from neighbouring countries, combined

I. Overview of natural disasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods in countries of the ESCAPregion and existing preparedness and prevention measures in the vulnerable countries 39

with technical assistance from WMO, has dramaticallyimproved the accuracy of forecasts of tropical cyclones.

The improved dissemination of warnings to the pub-lic, together with advice on countermeasures to be adopted,has resulted in a better public response and substantialmitigation of the damaging effects of tropical cyclones.

In most countries, the capability to forecast floodshas improved considerably, especially through the supportgiven by ESCAP and WMO and the programmes initiatedby the Typhoon Committee and the Panel on TropicalCyclones. Computer modelling of watersheds, when linkedto a network of meteorological and hy drological observationstations, has enabled the development of accurate floodforecasts and warnings. The development and use of radarfor measuring rainfall has increased the capacity for rapidcollection and processing of precipitation data. The im-provement in the establishment of meteorological andhydrological recording and reporting networks has allowedmany countries to prepare accurate and timely forecastsand warnings. However, there still exists considerablevariation among ESCAP countries in the availability andreliability of telecommunications equipment needed foreffective flood forecasting.

A by-product of improved forecasting has been theearly dissemination of warnings. The receipt of warningswith increased lead time has allowed disaster co-ordinatingbodies and the general public to undertake more effectivemeasures to cope with the flood threat. With the receipt ofmore timely warnings, orderly evacuations are conductedwhich minimize the loss of life and movable property.

(b) Emergency activities

Most countries have upgraded their civil defensecapability for the rescue of people from endangered areasthrough the mobilization of armed forces transport groups.Flood fighting and related activities have been upgraded.Several countries of the region have also organized localcommunities to respond to threats of disaster through co-operative activities which involve volunteers.

(c) Public awareness and education

Because adequate protection against flooding cannotbe provided immediately to safeguard vulnerable areas, anumber of countries have introduced programmes to pro-vide information and educate the public on flood hazardsituations. The development of readily accessible informationwhich is easily interpreted has proved beneficial in reducingthe flood hazard. This information includes the hydrologyand hydraulics of a range of floods on areas subject toinundation. An understanding of the nature and extent of

the flood threat can assist in preventing the unwise use anddevelopment of land; can lessen resistance to the applica-tion of sound planning and development controls; canreduce the extent of damage caused by floods; and can savelives in a flood emergency.

(d) Relief

In general, the recovery phase of disasters created bytropical cyclones and floods in the ESCAP region has beenand continues to be well catered for. In most countries, theorganizational response by governments to disaster vic-tims' needs in the delivery of relief and rehabilitationservices is highly effective and efficient. Governments ofdisaster-stricken countries are supported by the activitiesof UNDRO, which plays a central role in co-ordinatinginternational relief efforts, so that the needs of an affectedpopulation are met in a timely and effective manner. Ad-ditional support is usually provided by non-governmentalorganizations (NGOs), such as the League of Red CrossSocieties (LRCS), which contribute significantly to theeffective mitigation of the adverse social impacts of thesetwo natural disasters.

3. Legislative and institutional aspects

Most countries of the region have enacted a body oflegislation which provides the necessary controls and re-sponsibilities to cope with disaster situations. These lawspermit the relevant authorities to govern the long-termrequirements of disaster prevention and the short-termneeds of disaster preparedness. They relate to such aspectsas funding, planning, development, emergency relief andrehabilitation. They also specify the responsibilities of thevarious levels of government and the required integrationof functions among them.

Although statutory controls to govern relevant as-pects of community planning and development, includingzonings, sub-division controls and environmental issueswhich pertain to disaster prevention, are available, manygovernments are reluctant to invoke them. On the otherhand, virtually all countries of the region have well devel-oped legislative provisions for dealing with the effects ofdisasters when the emergency occurs and to cater for thepost-impact phase after the threat has subsided. Theinstitutional responsibilities and emergency arrangementsfor implementing counter-disaster plans and measures toadequately deal with the situation are clearly spelt out.These formalized responses by governments have devel-oped as a result of long experience with disasters createdby tropical cyclones and floods.

40Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

Responsibilities for disaster management are usuallydivided among the various levels of government. At thenational level the concern is with the broader issues, suchas the disbursement of funds to the provincial and localgovernments for disaster prevention and disaster reliefactivities. Development and implementation of disastermanagement programmes becomes the responsibility ofthe relevant government agencies responding to the dif-

ferent levels of government. Few governments have ap-pointed a central organization to co-ordinate the disastermitigation activities of the different government bodiesand other interested groups, so that a comprehensive approachmay be adopted. It is only the more developed countries ofthe region which have cohesive institutional arrangementsin place.

Bibliography

1. ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, 1986. Annual Re-view 1986. Manila, Typhoon Committee Secretariat.

2. United Nations Economic and Social Commission forAsia and the Pacific (ESCAP), 1984. Proceedings of theSeminars on Flood Vulnerability Analysis and on thePrinciples of Flood Plain Management and Flood LossPrevention. Water Resources Series No. 58. New York,United Nations.

3. ESCAP, 1984. Damage Information Compilation Sys-tems in the Typhoon Committee Regional Member Coun-tries. Bangkok, United Nations.

4. ESCAP, 1986, Proceedings of the Expert Group Meet-ing on the Improvement of Disaster Prevention SystemsBased on Risk Analysis of Natural Disasters Related toTyphoons and Heavy Rainfall. New York, United Na-tions.

5. ESCAP, 1988. Proceedings of the Expert Group Meet-ing on Improvements of Flood Loss Prevention Systemson Risk Analysis and Mapping. New York, United Na-tions.

6. ESCAP, 1989. Proceeding of the Expert Group Meet-ing on Comprehensive Flood Loss Prevention and Man-agement. New York, United Nations.

7. WorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO),1989. SomeAspects of Flood Forecasting Systems in Asia, 1984 to1988. Report No. TCT-25, Geneva, WMO Secretariat.

8. WMO, 1987. Tropical Hydrology. Operational Hydrol-ogy Report No 25. Geneva, WMO Secretariat.

9. WMO, 1978. Present Techniques of Tropical StormSurge Prediction. ReportNo. 13. Geneva, Marine ScienceAffairs, WMO Secretariat.

10. ESCAP, WMO and the League of Red Cross Societies,1977. Guidelines for Disaster Prevention and Prepared-ness in Tropical Cyclone Areas. Geneva/Bangkok.

11. WMO, 1976. The Quantitative Evaluation of the Riskof Disaster from Tropical Cyclones. Special Environmen-tal Report No 8. Geneva, WMO Secretariat.

12. United Nations Department of Economic and SocialAffairs, 1976. Guidelines for Flood Loss Prevention andManagement in Developing Countries. Natural Resources/Water Series No 5. New York, United Nations.

13. United Nations Office of the Disaster Relief Co-ordinator, 1976. Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Vol2. Hydrological Aspects. New York, United Nations.

14. United States Fleet Joint Typhoon Warning Center,Guam,1989. Annual Tropical Cyclone Report. San Fran-cisco, US Naval Oceanography Council Center.

15. ESCAP, 1970 to 1988. Water Resources JournalJane.Issues. Bangkok, United Nations.

16. Barton, I, R.W. Kates, and G.F. White, 1978. TheEnvironment as Hazard. NewYork, Oxford UniversityPress.

17. United Nations Centre for Regional Development,1988. Regional Development Dialogue, Vol 9, No. 1.Nagoya, Japan.

II. Case studies on preparedness and response measures lodisasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods 41

II. CASE STUDIES ON PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE MEASURESRELATED TO DISASTERS CAUSED BY CYCLONES/

TYPHOONS AND FLOODS

Introduction

One of the main purposes of the current symposiumis to exchange experiences on various aspects of differentnatural disasters. In line with this purpose, case studies onsome cyclone/typhoon- and flood-related disasters wereconducted.

Missions fielded to five countries collected informa-tion on disasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floodsas well as measures being taken to reduce the effects ofthese disasters and accordingly prepared case studies. Thecountries visited were:

(a) Philippines

(b) Samoa

(c) China

(d) Viet Nam

(e) Pakistan

22-26 October 1990;

12-16 November 1990;

19-24 November 1990;

27 November - 2 December 1990;

1-4 December 1990.

This paper provides summaries of these case studies,highlighting salient parts of each case study. Detailedinformation including tables, statistics and figures can befound in each mission repori.

A. Philippines

1. Introduction

The Philippines is an archipelago comprising 7 107islands, 11 of which constitute 94 per cent of the total area.The Philippines is a mountainous country, and with theexception of the large urbanized areas, many towns areaccessible only by narrow dirt roads which can be easilywashed away by floods or rendered impassable by land-slides. The country lies along the path of destructivetropical cyclones, usually generated in the Pacific Ocean,east and south-east of the Philippines.

All the major urban areas are susceptible to tropicalcyclones with various degrees of risk. Because of thenumerous plains and valleys that make up the country'stopography, these tropical cyclones usually cause seriousflooding of the terrain as well. Furthermore, the totallength of the combined coastlines of the islands and isletsthat make up the Philippines is about 17 000 km and issusceptible to storm surges as well.

2. Damage due to tropical cyclones, floods and stormsurges in the Philippines

A tropical cyclone not crossing the country couldstill inflict considerable damage to lives and property.However, usually the typhoons which do cross leave a trailof devastation behind them. The months in which thelargest number actually cross the country are October andNovember. In the past several typhoons followed eachother within a few days during those months causingextreme damage to lives and property in the Philippines.

The disaster information available for the last 20years (1969-1988) indicates thai total loss of life due totropical cyclones and related phenomena was as high as2074 in the year 1984 and the total cost of damagesamounted to 2.26 per cent of the GNP of the Philippines in1970. In November 1984 only one typhoon and the asso-ciated storm surge and floods caused the death of 1 028persons and property damages worth i*4,l billion (over $US 250 million).

Tropical cyclones in addition lo the very high windsalso carry moisture flow, which, upon intensification atmountainous terrains, causes extensive flooding of theplains and valleys, losses of lives and extensive damage tocrops. Flooding of urban areas causes considerable loss ofproperty and nuisance to daily life and sometimes loss oflives. Such floods were experienced in a number of yearsin Central Luzon including the Metropolitan Manila area.The flooding of 1986 inflicted by one single typhooncovered an area of 8 670 hectares in the MetropolitanManila area.

In the year 1980, 336 persons lost their lives due tofloods and the total damage was over #366 million (aboutSUS 35 million).

According to the records, storm surges as high as3.0 m (10 feet) have been experienced in various coastalareas in the Philippines.

In some areas of the country whirlwinds, also knownas tornadoes, with diameters less than a hundred metres arealso observed, which cause some damage to property andrarely loss of lives.

42Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

3. Disaster prevention agencies in the Philippines

Originally the Philippine Weather Bureau, later re-structured as Philippines Atmospheric, Geophysical andAstronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) wasresponsible for the observations of tropical cyclones in thePhilippines area of responsibility (PAR) and for issuingpublic warnings accordingly, among its duties.

The National Civil Defense Administration (NCDA)was formed in 1945 to render services to the people fortheir protection and survival during war and peace time,duties of which included protection against disasters. Thecivil defense plan and policies were formulated but werenever implemented due to inadequate budgetary support,public apathy and indifference. The Office of Civil Defensewas established in 1973 under the Department of NationalDefense by superseding NCDA's functions including es-tablishing and administering a comprehensive nationalcivil defense and civil assistance programme.

In order to respond better to the destruction causedby the natural disasters, the Calamities and Disaster Pre-paredness Plan, first initiated in 1978, was revised, re-structured and strengthened in 1988, and a National DisasterCoordinating Council (NDCC) was formed. Priority hasbeen given to saving of lives. The NDCC, which is thehighest policy determining body for major disasters, iscomposed of members of the cabinet under the chairman-ship of the Secretary of National Defense. The NDCC,whose main function is to advise the President of thePhilippines on the status of the national disaster prepared-ness programmes, disaster operations and rehabilitationefforts undertaken by the government and the privatesector, meets at least four times before every typhoonseason and utilizes the facilities and services of the Officeof Civil Defense. All the members of the Council contributetheir manpower facilities and expertise to effectively carryout the functions of the NDCC.

The local government, at the provincial, city, mu-nicipal and barangay levels, is responsible for organizingthe respective disaster co-ordinating councils and for over-seeing the status of preparedness programmes, disasteroperations and rehabilitation activities by the governmentand the private sector in their respective area of responsi-bility.

For the disaster coordinating councils from the na-tional, regional, provincial down to barangay level to carryout their functions effectively, activities are grouped withinthe following civil defense services working under a teamleader: (a) Health Service, (b) Auxiliary Fire Service, (c)Police Service, (d) Emergency Transportation Service, (e)Communications and Warning Service, (f) Public Infor-

mation Service, (g) Rescue and Engineering Service, (h)Evacuation Service, (i) Relief Service and (j) Welfare andRehabilitation Service.

After the designation of the 1990s as the Interna-tional Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR),NDCC created four committees to co-ordinate programmesrelated to the implementation of the IDNDR activities:

(a) Committee on Structural Measures;

(b) Committee on Non-structural Measures;

(c) Committee on Disaster Research;

(d) Committee on Disaster Legislation.

The main objectives of the four committees are:

(a) To improve the capability of the country tomitigate the effects of natural disasters expedi-tiously and effectively, paying special attentionto the establishment of early warning systems;

(b) To devise appropriate guidelines and strategiesfor applying existing knowledge;

(c) To foster scientific and engineering endeavoursaimed at closing critical gaps in knowledge inorder to reduce loss of life and property;

(d) To disseminate existing and new informationrelated to measures for the assessment, predic-tion, prevention and mitigation of natural disasters;

(e) To develop measures for the assessment, predic-tion, prevention and mitigation of natural disastersthrough programmes of technical assistance andtechnology transfer, demonstration projects andeducation and training, tailored to specific haz-ards and locations and to evaluate the effective-ness of these programmes.

4. Disaster reduction measures and practicesin the Philippines

PAGASA is responsible for issuing tropical cyclonewarnings. It receives information from satellite imageryand as the cyclone reaches 1 500 km east of the Philippinesthe first advisory warning is issued so that all the areas thatthe cyclone could possibly be affected could put intoaction disaster management plans from the Office of CivilDefense down to barangay levels. Six-hourly reports areissued until the cyclone leaves the Philippines area ofresponsibility. The difficulties associated with warningsystem are that there are many dialects in the country, livetelevision broadcasts are only at highly urbanized cities

II. Case studies on preparedness and response measures todisasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods 43

and a national telecommunication system linking all thepopulated islands would be very costly. The radio broad-casting is being used as the most common and dependableway of issuing warnings.

The Flood Forecasting Branch (FFB) of PAG AS A isresponsible for providing flood forecast and warning in thecountry. Since 1973, flood forecasting and warning sys-tems have been established for some of the major riverbasins of the Philippines, and the work for extension toother basins is continuing. The FFB of PAGASA hasdeveloped comprehensive systems and has acquired exten-sive experience during the last decade, and coordinatesoperations with the Department of Public Works and Highways(DPWH) with which the flood forecasting and warningsystem is directly linked, and also with other agenciesconcerned in flood mitigation and control. Timely floodforecasts and warnings together with efficient flood con-trol structures in some river basins have contributed sig-nificantly to reducing the damage. PAGASA has alsoestablished a flood forecasting and warning system fordam monitoring, reaching as far downstream as 25 kmfrom major dams, with sirens, loudspeakers and patrolcars, alerting people when water would be released fromthe dams. Hydrological and warning systems operate bysolar-charged batteries and there is an ongoing project onpowering all the flood forecasting and warning systems ofFFB by solar energy. In the past, due to local power cutsin many parts of the country, warning signals could not beissued to the people.

DPWH is responsible for the structural works relatedto disaster reduction. DPWH is involved in protectiveworks as well as national and local infrastructure damagerepairs. Provincial and municipal engineers, for example,programme flood control and drainage activities for theirrespective regions and the regional and district offices arein charge of implementation. The central office is mostlyinvolved in inspection of works undertaken. Large projectsare constructed by contractors and managed by ProjectManagement Offices of DPWH. Currently P800 millionare assigned annually to the National Calamity Fund to beutilized in all disaster reduction and compensation activi-ties. This amount was said to be inadequate and coveredonly a fraction of the damages caused by natural disasters.Furthermore, in the Philippines property protection meas-ures are given low priority, and the government concen-trates largely on repair and rehabilitation of bridges, roadsand public buildings. Out of the total annual NationalCalamity Fund P140 billion are released as an immediateresponse fund at the time of the occurrence of a disaster.

The Department of Social Welfare and Development(DSWD) is the government agency that is involved withthe protection of private property and public welfare.

DSWD sets up welfare and rehabilitation centres after thedisasters, for providing accommodation, catering, emer-gency clothing, registration and inquiring, and other as-sistance of a personal nature to the homeless and thestricken, for rapid restoration of well-being and morale.After a particularly disastrous typhoon in 1987, DSWDinitiated a "core shelter programme", and came up with adesign for construction of low-cost, typhoon-resistanthousing utilizing locally available materials and built bylocal expertise. The cost of such housing has been limitedtoP8 000 ($US320) per unit for the time being. So far, thisprogramme has been implemented on a small-scale on se-lected typhoon-prorie areas. Initial results indicated thatthey could withstand high winds of up to 170 kph withminimal damage. The core shelter was designed by theAsia Disaster Preparedness Centre of the Asian Institute ofTechnology. Normally, in the rural areas of the Philip-pines the houses are surrounded by orchards or trees whichalso serve as wind-breakers, but in strong winds these mayfall and crash onto the houses.

Previously the Philippines National Red Cross (PNRC)provided only medicine and food to the stricken, but itrecently has started distributing fishing nets to fishermenwho lost their property during a disaster. Presently PNRCis starting to provide simple houses, largely made of bam-boo, at a cost of i>12 000 (SUS480) to PNRC.

The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) becomes thecentre of operations during disasters. OCD is involved inestablishment, organization and training of Disaster Coor-dinating Councils. It also conducts studies on disastermanagement and monitors implementation of the "Ca-lamities and Disaster Preparedness Plan".

B. Samoa

1. Introduction

Samoa comprises the two large islands of Savaii andUpolu and several smaller islands. The total land area is2 820 km2, with Savaii measuring 1 700 km2 and Upolumeasuring 1 100 sq.km. Both islands are built up aroundrugged mountains, with the highest peak on Savaii rising to1 858 m and the highest peak on Upolu reaching 1 100 m.Both islands are characterized by a flat to gently undulat-ing coastal plain, which passes gradually into a region ofundulating to gently rolling slopes. These slopes give wayto steeply inclined foothills which terminate in an uplandplateau.

Tropical rainforests and dense vegetation cover mostof the islands. Agriculture is the main industry and source

44Pan Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

of income with coconuts, bananas, taro and cocoa beingthe principal agricultural products. Fishing and forestryresources are also exploited.

The total population approximates 170 000 people.Of this total, about 25 per cent live on the island of Savaiiand most of the remainder on Upolu; the population isheavily concentrated around the capital, Apia. There aresome 360 villages with an average population of 350people distributed around the coastal locations of the is-lands. Many of the occupied areas are only 1 to 3 m abovemean sea level.

2. Damage caused by tropical cyclones, storm surgesand floods in Samoa

Tropical cyclones are the most serious weather dis-turbances which affect Samoa. The months between No-vember and April are the most favourable for the formula-tion of tropical cyclones when warm, moist air ascendsover ocean surfaces. The most favourable spawning areais between latitudes 10° to 15°S when the sea surface tem-perature is at least 27°C. Most cyclones which move intothe Samoa area come generally from the north, but occa-sionally some originate from the east or west.

The nature of tropical cyclones affecting Samoa canvary greatly. The diameter of the storm can vary from alow 300 km to over 1 000 km. The duration of recordedcyclones has ranged from a few hours to over three days.

Historical records show that Samoa is frequentlytraversed by destructive cyclonic disturbances. In fact, atotal of 79 cyclones have affected Samoa during the period1831 to 1990.

Records indicate that many destructive cyclones struckSamoa during the last century. The first destructive cy-clone was registered in 1831 when the islands of Upolu andSavaii were devastated. The worst cyclone to occur lastcentury ravaged Samoa in 1889. Its intensity was so greatthat it sunk seven out of eight warships and over a dozenmerchantmen in Apia Harbour. Massive damage was alsorecorded on land, especially in the Apia town district. Theperiod after this event was followed by a number of violentcyclones which inflicted great damage and caused a numberof deaths. Many of these disturbances were accompaniedby storm surges and sea swell, which caused considerabledamage in the low-lying coastal areas.

The cyclone in 1966 was one of the most destructivein recent times. Hurricane force winds resulted in massivewind damage to agriculture and buildings. Ten peoplewere killed and the country's economy was crippled.

The most destructive natural disaster to affect Samoain modern times occurred in February 1990 when Cyclone"Ofa" struck the islands. This cyclone produced excep-tionally high storm surges which combined with high tidesand storm waves to cause great destruction in low-lyingcoastal areas, especially to the sea-front road system. Atotal of ten people were killed, mostly as a result of storm-surge, and evacuation of beachfront residents was essen-tial. Violent winds of up to 140 knots were responsible formassive damage to forests and coconut plantations.

This cyclone was unusual because it was not accom-panied by heavy rainfall or flooding. Salt spray whippedup by hurricane force winds which lasted for three dayswas carried over 30 km inland and defoliated virtually allthe vegetation contacted. The result was the almost com-plete destruction of all natural and agricultural vegetationwithin the affected zone. The damaged plantations losttheir complete crop production. Distribution of food aidand other essential requirements continued for six monthsafter the cyclone. It is estimated that "Ofa" has a returnperiod of about 25 years.

Tropical cyclones affecting Samoa are often accom-panied by storm-surge and sea swell. The effects of storm-surge can be particularly devastating in the heavily popu-lated coastal zones.

Flooding in Samoa is not considered to be a majorproblem. However, with the continuing influx of peopleinto flood-prone areas, especially in the vicinity of Apia,the potential for flood disasters has increased dramatically.Because most of the catchments are relatively small, havesteep topography and experience heavy rainfalls, floodwatersconcentrate rapidly, resulting in flash floods. Flooding isconfined to the lower reaches of the streams adjacent to thecoast. Flooding can be exacerbated by storm surge andhigh tide.

Because systematic collection of streamflow recordsdid not commence until 1971 when a few hydrologicalstations were installed, very little factual data on floodflows are available. Most information on flooding relatesto reports of damage caused to agriculture, villages andtransport routes.

The worst flood problems were experienced in 1982,1989 and 1990. The 1982 flood resulted from heavyrainfall and caused severe damage to property, roads,utilities and a bridge. Flooding which accompanied cyclone"Gina" in January 1989 caused damage to roads and bridges,disrupted water supplies, destroyed homes and resulted inwidespread evacuations.

Torrential rain fell in May 1990 and caused wide-spread flash flooding, especially on the island of Upolu. A

II. Case studies on preparedness and response measures todisasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods 45

massive amount of debris and silt which resulted from thedamage caused by Cyclone "Ofa" was conveyed by flood-water and affected water supplies, destroyed bridges andinundated low-lying areas. Massive damage was alsosuffered at hydro-electric stations and buildings adjacentto flood-affected streams.

3. Disaster prevention measures in Samoa

The defence against tropical cyclones and stormsurges involves reinforcement of sea protection works.Work has been progressively carried out on the upgradingof Apia Harbour breakwaters and the armouring of thecoastal road system which is prone to storm surges andswell. The need to accelerate this work and to implementan inland road system safe from the ravages of the sea areconsidered to be high priority.

The May 1990 floods which resulted in the destruc-tion of several bridges and damage to water supply facilitiesand hydro-electric plants highlighted the need for betterdesign and construction of facilities to avoid future flooddamage. The need for some form of river catchmentcontrol to overcome erosion problems and improve waterquality is also considered necessary.

Samoa uses the New Zealand Standard Wind andEarthquake Loading Code for vetting the design of newEuropean style buildings. The design wind speed adoptedis the highest for the region. No controls are imposed ontraditional native style buildings. Problems have arisen,however, because of inadequate enforcement of the regu-lations. It was found that much of the building damagesustained during Cyclone "Ofa" resulted from faultyworkmanship.

The application of planning controls, acquisition ofland and relocation of people have not been employed asdisaster mitigation strategies. This is due largely to thenature of land ownership which is vested in the villagesystem.

4. Disaster preparedness in Samoa

(a) Forecasting and warning

All basic forecasts are prepared in the RegionalMeteorological Office at Nadi in Fiji and relayed to theSamoan Weather Observatory in Apia by satellite. Al-though the forecasting system is considered to be reason-able, the communication system failed completely duringthe early stages of Cyclone "Ofa". It become necessary toremove the satellite receiving dish to avoid damage, thusinterrupting the communication system. A new installationis being planned to overcome this problem. To overcomethe existing forecasting deficiencies, the Observatory needs

an upgrading of technical facilities including weather ra-dar and communication equipment.

It might be noted that the weather observatory, whichis situated on the sea front, was demolished by storm-surgeand swell during Cyclone "Ofa". Unfortunately, manyvaluable records, some extending back for 100 years, werecompletely destroyed. Plans are in hand to rebuild theobservatory on the same site.

Storm and flood warnings are issued by the weatherservice via radar bulletins and through the newspapers.However, it is generally considered that the current warningsystem is inadequate, especially to outlying villages. DuringCyclone "Ofa", all communications systems except that ofthe Police Department were disrupted, which caused seriousproblems in alerting the public to the gravity of the situa-tion. Plans are now in hand to undertake a completeupgrading of the communications system to ensure that thefuture warning service is reliable, timely and accurate.

(b) Public awareness and education

There have been limited programmes for the dis-semination of knowledge to aid the general public in theunderstanding and required response to natural disasters inSamoa. Public awareness campaigns are conducted by theNational Disaster Council (NDC) as part of the NationalDisaster Plan. The plan requires that communities developa degree of self-reliance which allows them to fend forthemselves during the initial stages of a disaster. Toachieve this goal, members of the public are provided withinformation on the necessary steps required to ensure theirsafety and survival. Village Action Teams have the ulti-mate responsibility to help village populations to be awareto the required response during disaster situations.

The NDC is being supported in this role by theVoluntary Organizations Disaster Relief PreparednessCommittee. To this end, the committee has issued abooklet which clearly sets out the necessary actions requiredduring the range of possible disasters. The booklet wasdesigned and distributed to secondary school pupils.

Although the Police Department carries out regulartraining exercises for disaster situations, no such exerciseshave been carried out for cyclone or flood situations.

(c) Emergency activities

Samoa has developed a well-structured emergencyplan to counter disasters created by tropical cyclones and,to a lesser extent, by floods. This plan details the respon-sibilities of the different levels of government, governmentdepartments and agencies and the non-government or-ganizations.

46Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

A number of shortcomings in the plan surfaced dur-ing Cyclone "Ofa" which have prompted a revision ofsome aspects and further fine tuning of the plan. Theprincipal problems involved inadequate forecasts andwarnings, communication breakdowns and delayed responseto emergency situations.

(d) Relief and rehabilitation

The provision of the services is organized accordingto the National Disaster Plan and coordinated firstly at theDistrict level and then at the village level. Arrangementsare put in place to ensure that all available supplies aredistributed in an efficient and effective manner.

The non-governmental organizations (NGOs) play aprominent role in the disaster relief operations, especiallyin the earlier stages of the disaster. Local subscriptions ofcash and clothing and the distribution of emergency sup-plies from accumulated stores, all provide tangible assist-ance during the relief phase of the disaster. Considerableassistance was given during Cyclone "Ofa" towards emergencyshelter. The NGOs and especially the Red Cross Societyproposes to upgrade its on-site emergency supplies storageas a safeguard against delays caused by inclement weather.

During the rehabilitation phase, considerable reli-ance is placed on international aid for carry on assistancefrom the NGOs and the international community. Follow-ing "Ofa", aid in the form of food supplies was requiredfor six months after the event to make good the damagesuffered to food crops.

The rehabilitation phase of disasters is not coveredby the National Disaster Plan.

5. Institutional and legal arrangements in Samoa

The Constitution of Samoa contains emergency powersto deal with disaster situations. It includes provisionswhich permit the Head of State, after consultation withCabinet, to proclaim an emergency situation to deal withnatural disaster. Under the proclamation, the Head ofState can make emergency orders to secure public safelyand essential supplies and services, and safeguard theinterests and maintain the welfare of the community.

C. China

1. Introduction

China occupies a land mass of 9.6 million km2. Itstopography is essentially mountainous and varies in eleva-

tion from sea level along the eastern seaboard to over 8 000m in the vast mountain chains. More than half of the totalarea of China consists of tableland and mountainous re-gions and its coastline exceeds 18 000 km in length.

Within Chinese territory, there are more than 1 600rivers with drainage areas exceeding 1 000 sq km. Thetotal length of these rivers is approximately 226 000 km.The upper reaches of the large rivers traverse steep valleysand areas of sparse population. In the middle and lowerreaches of these rivers, the extensive floodplains are ex-tremely densely populated.

Only 11 per cent of the country is cultivated withmost of the remainder being composed of waste tracts ofdesert, denuded wasteland and urban areas. Forests andinland water bodies amount to about 10 per cent of the totalarea.

China supports a population of over 1.2 billion peo-ple of which some 80 per cent are engaged in rural produc-tion. Most of China's major cities and large industrialcentres are situated on the alluvial plains of the coastalstrip and are vulnerable to tropical cyclones and flooding.

2. Damage caused by tropical cyclones andHoods in China

China ranks high among the countries worst affectedby tropical cyclones, storm surges and floods in the ESCAPregion. These natural hazards cause considerable losses oflife and massive damages to property almost every year.They often reach intensities which wreak devastation ofsuch magnitude that they are classified as national disas-ters. In total, these three types of hazards kill more peopleand cause greater property damage than any of the othernatural disasters which afflict the country, perhaps except-ing the earthquakes.

While tropical cyclones affect the full length of theChinese coastline and adjacent offshore islands, the east-ern and southern coastal regions experience the greatestnumber of landfalls. Consequently these regions suffer themost damage. Although tropical cyclones often penetrateconsiderable distances inland, their intensity and destruc-tive power diminishes rapidly as distance from the oceanincreases. Although tropical cyclones can affect China atany time during the period from May to December, thepeak intensity occurs from July to September.

The greatest damage reported in the last 40 years inChina was typhoon No. 6903 which landed in Hui LaiCountry, Guangdong Province. When landing at the area

II. Case studies on preparedness and response measures todisasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods 47

on 28 July 1969, the maximum wind speed reached about50 to 55 m/s. Occurring at a time of high astronomical tide,this typhoon caused severe damage causing the death ofabout 1 000 people.

Cyclones approaching the Chinese coastline are of-ten accompanied by storm surges. Rises of up to sixmetres in the sea surface can be experienced in coastalareas if a strong cyclonic depression coincides with a highastronomical tide. Strong winds which accompany cy-clones can generate high waves of up to 10 metres whichfurther increase the potential destructive power of stormsurges.

Heavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclonesproduce frequent and high floods. The greatest floodsoccur in the coastal rivers during the mid to late summerperiod when cyclonic depressions occur close to the coast.

Although many major floods have occurred since1949, their effects have been reported to be less damagingbecause of the efforts made in implementing structuralflood mitigation measures. This fact is confirmed by theoccurrence of the highest floods on record in the post 1949period. However, these floods resulted in significantlyless damage than that was caused by the earlier floods. Itmust be noted that China's efforts in the field of flooddisaster reduction over the last 40 years have reduced theaverage annual death rate from about 140 000 in the 1930sto some 3 000 in 1990.

Up to 1990, the most severe flood of recent decadesoccurred in 1954 and affected the whole of eastern China.River levels in the Yellow and Yangtze during April toJuly were the highest recorded for over 100 years. Highriver levels at Nanjing and Wuhan persisted for over 100days.

Floods in China are also caused by tropical stormsand monsoonal depressions. Because of the considerablylarger areas affected by floods, they are more destructive,and have claimed more lives and caused greater damage tothe economy than tropical cyclones.

Concentration of population and property in flood-prone areas largely contributes to the scale of flood disasters.Over 85 per cent of the total population and most of thenation's assets are located in flood-prone areas whichoccupy about 30 per cent of the total land area. Most of themajor cities are situated in the downstream areas of majorriver basins and consequently are vulnerable to flooding.

In addition to massive urban flood problems, Chinaalso experiences widespread rural flooding. It is reportedthat almost 8 million hectares of farmland are floodedannually causing significant losses of agricultural produc-

tion. Major damages are inflicted on infrastructure, in-cluding roads, railways, bridges, water supplies. Flooddamage also includes major river bank collapse andaggradation of river beds by the deposition of sediment.

3. Risk assessment in China

For a number of years China has been undertaking aprogramme of risk assessment related to tropical cyclones,storm surges and floods as a prelude to the planning andimplementation of measures to mitigate the disasters causedby these hazards.

Since China has a vast amount of historical datadescribing the occurrence of past floods, it is well placed toundertake the task of flood risk mapping. The purpose ofthese maps is to provide guidelines for flood plain manage-ment by implementation of land-use controls. It might benoted that the level of risk adopted to describe the floodhazard shown by these maps is comparatively lower whencompared to the standards adopted in other ESCAP coun-tries.

Flood risk mapping exercises have been conductedfor major rivers and have been undertaken for major damsand reservoirs to cover dam break situations. The mappingprogramme is currently being extended to other areas,especially urban areas which are experiencing rapid ratesof development.

4. Disaster prevention measures in China

Historically the principal measure adopted to pre-vent flood disasters in China was the construction of dykesand river training works to protect development from flooddamage. As the heavy sediment load carried by the majorrivers exacerbates the flood problem, it has been necessaryto include soil conservation works as an integral compo-nent of the flood protection programme.

Since 1949 multi-purpose water resources develop-ment schemes, which included a flood protection compo-nent, have been implemented on numerous rivers, particu-larly within the catchments of the seven major rivers.

Although these works have reduced the potential forHooding along the middle and lower reaches of rivers, thecapacity of the various flood control structures to with-stand flooding is still limited. In addition, the urban floodproblems in major cities, including provincial centres onthe small streams have increased because of insufficientconveyance capacity of waterways. There is also an in-creasing risk of flash floods in small catchments anddensely populated areas causing damage of major proportions.

The principal non-structural measures currently adoptedby the Chinese Government are: planning controls which

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include land-use management and building codes, acquisi-tion of lands and relocation, flood insurance and floodproofing. It is intended that the comprehensive approachbe applied to both developing and developed areas.

China has established land-use management controlsor planning controls which can be applied to address theflood hazard. These controls define the type of activitywhich can be undertaken within the delineated flood pronearea and have been based on actual flood risk mapping.These planning controls also establish the guidelines forthe safety and construction of flood storage and retardationareas, including the types of crops which can be grown inthese areas.

As another element of its flood management pro-gramme, China has proclaimed and developed a number offloodway districts which involve flood detention and stor-age areas. These districts are situated in low-lying agriculturalareas in the downstream reaches of rivers. They are usedfor temporary storage of floodwater diverted from a riverwhen the magnitude of river flow threatens the safety ofprotected areas downstream. By this method, the moredeveloped areas are protected on a priority basis and theoverall flood damages are minimized. Population withinthe area is controlled to reduce the number of flood-affected inhabitants. To achieve this control, excess popu-lation is actively encouraged to migrate to safer areas andoffered inducements, such as preference in employment inorder to encourage them to do so.

China has in place a number of flood insuranceschemes operated by insurance companies. These companiesare entitled to collect premiums and pay claims for flooddamage. Any shortfall in the payment of damage claims ismade up by the provincial government which is empoweredto collect levies from beneficiaries within the proclaimedflood area.

In order to reduce the reliance on flood relief fundsprovided by the central government, provincial governmentsare actively encouraged to implement flood insuranceschemes in areas highly prone to flooding.

5. Disaster preparedness in China

During the last 20 years China has made a concertedeffort to upgrade its forecasting capability in tropical cy-clone and flood prediction. China has in place an extensivenetwork of weather observation stations including satelliteimage receiving facilities, radar observation facilities andintensified upper air observations. Improved forecastingtechniques which use the real-time observational data providedby the network of synoptic weather stations are beingemployed in order to increase the accuracy of the estimatedrainfall distribution and tropical cyclone movement.

Extensive use is made of satellite imagery from theavailable weather satellites. An elaborate research programmeis being pursued into satellite applications including imageanalysis and processing and data reception and processing.The National Meteorological Centre is being assisted inupgrading its forecasting techniques by the research effortof the Academy of Meteorological Science, especially inregard to cyclone formation and tracking.

Effective warning of tropical cyclone movement andintensity is issued 48 hours in advance of its landfall. Thewarning also identifies the communities and coastal areaswhich are being threatened.

A network of broadcasting stations issues cyclonewarnings at regular intervals and the warning frequency isincreased as the severity of danger increases or when majorchanges to previous warnings are necessary. Additionalwarnings are also relayed to the public via television,newspapers, and direct telephone service and by specialweather bulletins to key organizations.

China has developed and operates a fairly sophisti-cated flood forecasting network for all the major riversystems. A network of hydrological stations includingsome 17 000 rainfall stations, 5 000 river stage stations andabout 3 500 stream discharge stations has been established.Many of the individual flood forecasting systems havebeen automated by the installation of telemetering stationsand supported by computer systems for forecast prepara-tion employing hydrologic models.

In some cases rainfall radar technology is used forprecipitation estimates and telemetering by satellite isemployed in the preparation of forecasts.

The Ministry of Water Resources through its Hydro-logical Forecasting and Water Control Centre (HFGC) isresponsible for the overall management and operation offlood forecasting and warning services in China. Actualforecasting services are organized on individual river ba-sins and the dissemination of warnings is undertaken at thelocal level. However the HFGC assumes responsibility forthe formulation of forecasts and issuing of warnings re-garding the major river systems. Dissemination of floodwarnings is accomplished through an elaborate informationtransmission system. The warnings are issued at the locallevel through a network of 1 200 hydrological stations.

Although the flood forecasting and warning systemsfor the large rivers are considered to be adequate, there stillexists the remaining problem of flash floods at the smallercatchments. As flash floods constitute a major problem inmany parts of the country, it is recognized that specialforecasting efforts and resources will need to be employedto overcome it.

11. Case studies on preparedness and response measures todisasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods 49

China has developed a series of regulations and well-structured emergency plans to counter disasters created bytropical cyclones, storm surges and floods. This approachrequires preparation of detailed emergency plans in advance.These plans include an indication of the extent of theaffected area, the identification and location of the popu-lation to be evacuated, the actual evacuation route anddestination and the mode of transport, the means of informingthe population of impending evacuation and the time of itsexecution, and the provision of emergency shelters.

The provincial governments are charged with thecontrol of emergency activities, including the safe evacu-ation of residents, the provision of food and shelter, thesupply of medical and welfare services and maintainingpublic order during an emergency.

The Central Flood Control headquarters has the powerto marshal both the army and civilians for flood fightingactivities. Large numbers of people are mobilized toundertake emergency activities, such as the strengtheningof dykes and dams which are threatened during majorfloods. In addition, the Headquarters carries out a numberof other important functions, which include training ofpersonnel in flood control activities and conducting publicawareness campaigns.

The central government has issued orders that thepublic be fully advised on emergency arrangements to beimplemented during disasters. In the case of flooding, forexample, the provincial governments are directed to pre-pare guidelines for public information on the topics relatedto flood storage and retardation areas, including details ofhistorical floods which have affected the area.

During the tropical cyclone season, disaster preven-tion headquarters are set up at localities in coastal areas.These headquarters are staffed by representatives of theMeteorological Department, the Civil Affairs Departmentand Red Cross Societies. The Ministry of Civil Affairs hasthe prime responsibility to assist disaster victims duringand immediately after the event. In less hazard prone areasthese headquarters are established on the basis of forecastsof an impending disaster.

6. Institutional and legal arrangements in China

In 1988 China strengthened its laws and regulationson water resources, including the control of water relateddisasters. The new regulations give strong powers todifferent levels of government for the implementation ofmeasures for flood control and flood fighting. This lawconfers special powers on the State Council to control allrelevant activities and undertake any emergency actionsdeemed necessary. It embodies the notion that compre-

hensive planning must be undertaken in advance and thatall emergency operations be conducted according to anapproved operation plan. Strong punitive action can betaken against breaches of the regulations.

D. Viet Nam

1. Introduction

Viet Nam occupies an area of some 329 600 km2. It isbounded in the east by the South China Sea and by theAnnamite Mountain Range in the west. Its topography isgenerally rugged with the highest elevations exceeding3 000 m along the western borders. Its elongated shapestretches for over 1 600 km. At its widest point its westernborder is only 500 km from the sea.

The northern region of Viet Nam is characterized bymountainous or hilly terrain with elevations reaching3 142 m. The major rivers which rise in the mountainouscountry to the west, flow through steep and hilly terrain tothe sea in the east. Viet Nam possesses narrow floodplainsand limited coastal plains. The Red River is the principalstream of the region. The capital city, Hanoi, is situatedalong is banks.

In the central region, the river system is character-ized by short streams with steep slopes. The averagedistance from the coast to the mountain range is about 70km.

The southern region comprises the Mekong Riverdelta which is characterized by flat topography and numer-ous tributary flood channels.

Viet Nam has a monsoon tropical climate and expe-riences frequent tropical cyclones in the northern andcentral regions. However, tropical cyclones rarely trackacross the southern region. Rainfall is concentrated in themonths of June, July and August when up to 80 per cent ofthe total annual rainfall is recorded. The intensity ofrainfall can be extremely high and produces rapid rates ofrunoff and serious flooding.

The population of Viet Nam is about 65 million andit has rural population densities which are among thehighest in the world.

2. Damage caused by tropical cyclones andfloods in Viet Nam

Over the last 1 000 years, Viet Nam has suffered fromnumerous cyclones/typhoons, storm surges and floods. In

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many cases, these hazards have reached disaster proportionscausing catastrophic loss of life, property damage and socialdisruption. Its geographical position, climate and physicalshape make VietNam particularly vulnerable to these hazards.The entire country can be exposed to the ravages of tropicalcyclones, its long coastline exacerbates the storm surge problemand devastating floods can occur in all of its rivers andstreams.

Viet Nam is affected by tropical cyclones whichoriginate over the ocean to the east of the country. Theprincipal spawning ground is the North-West Pacific Oceanto the east of the Philippines. However, cyclones can alsobe generated closer to the coast in the South China Sea.

The entire country can come under the direct influ-ence of tropical cyclones because of its physical setting.Hurricane force winds can extend unabated across the fullwidth of the country when the "eye" of the cyclone issituated close to the coastline. Consequently, cyclones arethe most destructive of the meteorological hazards whichaffect the country.

Although Viet Nam can be affected by cyclones atany time during the period from May to December, thegreatest number of landfalls is recorded in the months fromJuly to September. On the average, three to four cyclonesstrike the mainland each year. The frequency of cyclonestrikes decreases from north to south of the country.

Because of its extensive coastline and low topogra-phy adjacent to the seaboard, much of the country isexposed to storm surge. These storm surges, which aregenerated by tropical cyclones, accompanied by highwinds and high sea waves, can overwhelm coastal regionsalong the entire length of the country.

The high rates of rainfall caused by the tropicalcyclones result in widespread and devastating floods in allthe river systems of Viet Nam. The occurrence of manyfloods is directly related to the visit of tropical cyclones.

In the northern region, devastating floods are gener-ated on the Red River system. The majority of the basin iscomprised of mountainous topography which is conduciveto a rapid concentration of flood water. As most of thetributaries join the main river close to the delta where thegrade flattens, high river levels and widespread inundationare experienced in the lower reaches. The severity offlooding can be exacerbated by backwater effects whichretard drainage during high tides and storm surge.

Rivers in the central region have steep mountainouscatchments and are characterized by short channel lengths.The concentration of runoff from these catchments isextremely rapid and results in flash floods which exit from

the mountains across a \ery narrow coastal strip. Floodlevels in the downstream reaches.are increased by storm-surge and tidal effects.

The southern region comprises the Mekong Riverdelta which is the outlet point for flood discharges from acatchment area exceeding 50 000 sq.km. A large part ofthe delta is regularly flooded for extended periods todepths of between two to three metres. This delta comprisesabout 25 per cent of the total lowland area of Viet Nam.

Viet Nam has a long history of water related disastersdating back thousands of years, and continues to experienceflood disasters. An intense tropical cyclone which landed incentral Viet Nam in May 1989 claimed the lives of 157people, injured 106 and 400 others were listed as missing.During the cyclone, over 111 000 houses and other buildingswere destroyed rendering some 336 000 people homeless.About 166 000 ha of crops were damaged and about 21000 haof paddy rice were completely destroyed. A large number ofboats were sunk and marine installations suffered heavydamage.

3. Disaster prevention measures in Viet Nam

Viet Nam has been using structural measures tocombat its flooding problems for over 1 000 years whenthe original system of dykes was constructed on majorrivers. This form of flood protection has continued to bethe prime flood control measure since that time.

The principal preventive measures employed to de-crease the impact of water-related disasters concentrate onreducing the effects of flooding and storm surge. Themeasures adopted include flood control reservoirs, dykesystems, groins, channel improvements, diversion chan-nels, retarding basins, pumping systems and drainage systems.

The construction of dyke systems had commencedover 1000 years ago and has continued ever since. By the year1945 the total length of dikes in the country was 3 000 km andthat has been extended to over 7 700 km comprising 5 700 kmof river dikes and 2 000 km of sea dikes. In general, it isconsidered that the programme of continued construction ofriver dykes involved raising, strengthening and extending thesystems in the north of the country, has rendered those riverssafe against maximum flood levels.

Dykes are categorized according to their location,importance and extent of the protected area and the natureof construction. The most important dykes, which protectmajor areas of development, are designed to withstandovertopping by rare floods. The standard of the dyke isreduced as the protected area diminishes in importance. Itis intended that the dyke systems will continue to be an

II. Case studies on preparedness and response measures todisasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods 51

important structural measure, and it is proposed to extendthe existing systems, especially for improved protection ofagricultural crops against flooding and for improved defenseagainst storm surge and salt-water intrusion in the coastalareas.

Diversion channels or by-pass floodways have beenconstructed to divert flood flows major rivers in order todecrease water levels below the point of diversion. Therate of diversion may be controlled by a regulator. Thesesystems have been widely employed along the Red Riverand in the Mekong Delta. In many cases, the diversionchannels are combined with flood storage areas to formflood retardation areas. The storage areas are used foragricultural production with the knowledge that they maybe flooded if it becomes necessary to make flood diver-sions.

Viet Nam presently has made only limited use ofnon-structural measures for disaster prevention activitiesrelated to tropical cyclones, storm surge and floods.

4. Disaster preparedness in Viet Nam

Because of the long experience with natural disasterscaused by tropical cyclones and floods, Viet Nam hasdeveloped efficient emergency preparedness programmesto protect life and property when these hazards occur. Theemergency preparedness programme involves a range ofnon-structural measures, including forecasting and warn-ing, storm surge prediction, flood fighting and evacuation,relief and rehabilitation.

The Vietnamese Government considers that fore-casting and warning are among the most important meas-ures to help mitigate the effects of tropical cyclones andfloods. This measure has proved very effective in reducingthe potential damage due to natural disasters by increasingthe time between warning and onset of an event. TheHydrometeorological Service is responsible for the prepa-ration of cyclone and flood forecasts and warnings andstorm surge prediction.

Tropical cyclone forecasting is based on data pro-vided by weather satellites and available radar stations inthe three major cities of Hanoi, Da Nang and Haiphong.Accurate prediction of cyclone intensity and movementhas been hampered because of inadequate links with theweather serviceof neighbouring countries, obsolete equipmentand shortage of funds to upgrade the existing system.

The Hydrometeorological Service prepares short-term flood forecasts for all the major river systems. Asophisticated mathematical model is utilized in formulat-ing these forecasts. Currently, however, the Service doesnot prepare detailed forecasts of flash flood conditions in

the Central Region, although these floods cause massivedamages.

The responsibility for preparing forecasts and theissuing of warnings for minor rivers and streams resideswith the individual provinces' and districts' administra-tion.

Data collection systems for rainfall and streamflowstatistics are manual and the information is transmitted byland-line or radio. No telemetering equipment is availableto help streamline the data collection network.

Dissemination of the forecasts and warnings is ac-complished by television, radio and the newspapers. Dur-ing emergencies, updated forecasts and warnings are is-sued at frequent intervals. The Central Storm and FloodControl Committee receives frequent advice to allow it toco-ordinate all flood control activities.

Tropical cyclone warnings are issued to all shippingby radio and, in special circumstances, by gun signals.Restrictions are placed on ships departing port duringemergency periods to reduce loss of life.

Education of the public on disaster prevention iscarried out in a number of different ways. Firstly, techni-cal training is achieved in flood and storm control inschools and colleges by including these subjects as part ofthe curriculum. River engineering is taught in specialcourses or in engineering courses conducted by the insti-tutes and universities. Secondly, a meeting is held everyyear by the dyke management authorities at the district andprovincial levels to provide instruction on this topic. Thirdly,flood and storm control techniques are disseminated to thepublic through radio programmes and publication innewspapers.

Since 1900 the 22nd day of May has been designatedas "disaster day" to promote public awareness of cyclonesand floods. A regular presidential address is made to thepublic asserting the need for readiness to combat theeffects of natural disasters. Public awareness of floods isalso kept alive by displaying slogans in flood-prone vil-lages urging the villages to be prepared for emergencies.

Emergency response, which involves flood fightingand evacuation, has been highly developed by the VietnameseGovernment. It requires the preparation of systematicplans and programmes for storm and flood control prior toeach storm season. These plans set out the remedial worksrequired to ensure the stability of protective works, thepriority of implementing these works and the financialassistance necessary to complete the works. The evacua-tion needs and priorities are also established and incorpo-rated into the plan. The plan is vetted by the Central

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Government before any new work is commissioned ormilitary assistance with construction is provided. Eachseparate province prepares its own plan.

Flood fighting is highly organized and efficient andinvolves a high degree of community participation. Itrequires the organization of embankment patrols andemergency repairs for a very large number of dyke sys-tems. For the important rivers, the Central Governmenthas organized dyke control teams comprising hydraulicengineers, technicians and construction workers who aretrained in dyke construction and maintenance. Each teamis responsible for between 20 to 30 km of dykes. The totalforce comprises about 600 people.

The permanent control teams are supported by emer-gency teams who are selected by local authorities in areasprotected by dykes, prior to the arrival of the cyclone andflood season. Each team is trained in dyke maintenancetechniques and becomes responsible for a section of about3 km of dyke and they are on continuous duty duringfloods. Each emergency team is supported by a floodfighting brigade enlisted from the local villages. Thebrigade, which comprises up to 100 members, supports theemergency team to undertake any emergency repairs.

Evacuation needs in the event of an emergency,including the identification of escape routes, the number ofpeople and livestock to be evacuated and the shelter ar-rangements for the evacuees under different levels offlooding are set out in the emergency plan. The populationis advised in advance of the actions required by them. Indisaster situations, the army is mobilized to assist in cy-clone and flood fighting activities. Their main task relatesto rescue activities with the use of specialized equipmentsuch as trucks, helicopters, etc.

Sea dyke protection teams are organized along thesame lines as the river dyke protection teams.

Requirements are also set out in the emergency plan.These plans include the estimates for the needs for food,water, shelter, fuel and other necessities required by theaffected population. All disaster victims receive govern-ment support by way of relief food aid and medical serv-ices. Some rehabilitation assistance is given to disastervictims to help build their houses and re-establish them-selves. Some tax relief is also provided.

5. Institutional and legal aspects in Viet Nam

The co-ordination of water-related disaster activitiesin Viet Nam is the primary responsibility of the CentralCommittee of Storm and Flood Control (CSFCC). It

operates under the guidance of the Council of Ministers ofthe Central Government. The full committee is comprisedof 17 members drawn from relevant ministries and it ischaired by the Minister of Water Resources. Up to thepresent time, all regulations and rules relating to disastermitigation have been formulated and issued by the CSFCC.These rules specify the duties and responsibilities of thevarious Government departments and the teams concernedwith prevention and preparedness functions. Special em-phasis has been placed on dyke protection, surveillanceand maintenance.

E. Pakistan

1. Introduction

Pakistan is located in the western portion of thesubcontinent and is bordered by India, Afghanistan andIran.

Although Pakistan is situated entirely within thetemperate zone, the climate is, in general, tropical orsubtropical. The high mountain ranges of the north andnorth-west provide an effective barrier to cool air massesmoving southward from central Asia. Average precipita-tion in the country is 190 mm, the highest being 760 mmand the lowest 100 mm. In the north the precipitation ismainly in the form of snow. Except for the western part,the rest of the country is under the influence of the monsoonseason which is from July to September.

Pakistan was estimated to have a population of over110 million in 1989. The annual rate of population growthhas been estimated as 2.9 per cent.

Although Pakistan is traversed by several large riv-ers and numerous smaller streams, only the Indus Rivercarries significant flow. The rest are smaller rivers andtheir floods are usually less severe.

The Indus river is an international river with a totalcatchment of 944 000 sq.km, out of which about 10 percent lies in China and another 8 per cent in Afghanistan.The remaining 82 per cent lies in Pakistan and India. TheIndus river has a length of over 3 000 km from the headwaters in the distant highlands of Tibet to the Arabian Sea.In Pakistan, downstream of the Tarbela Dam, the river cutsthrough the Salt Range for a distance of more than 160 kmbefore emerging into the plains. At this point the Indusleaves its mountaineous character and becomes an alluvial

II. Case studies on preparedness and response measures todisasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods 53

river flowing through the Indus plain for a distance of1 500 km before reaching the Arabian Sea. The riveralong its journey through the Indus plain tends to meander.At places the meander belt becomes more than 16 km.More than 20 large rivers join the Indus along its journeyto the sea. The major ones are Chenab, Jhelum, Ravi andSutlej.

In its upper reaches, the Indus river system receivesdischarge only by snowmelt whereas in its middle to lowerreaches it is under the influence of monsoon rains.

2. Damage caused by floods in Pakistan

Large flows in the rivers are generated mainly due toexcessive rainfall in the basin and excessive snow melts inthe upper catchments in the Himalayan mountains as theweather warms up. These rivers, therefore, carry highdischarge during summer season, which also coincideswith the monsoon season.

The floods in the upper Indus are generally the resultof snowmelt in mountainous catchment areas in the Himalayanand Hindu Kush ranges. These areas have limited valleystorages. Large floods in the upper reaches are usuallycaused by excessive snowmelt and collapse of temporarynatural snow/debris dams which are formed every yeareither by glacial movement or landslides. The floods in thelower reach of the Indus are the continuation of flood flowsof the upper Indus and the flood flows of its tributaries,namely Jhelum, Chenab and Sutlej. The floods in Indusoccur between July and October and the river can be inhigh stage for a period exceeding one month.

In the tributaries of the Indus River, snowmelt is nota significant factor contributing to high floods, but floodsgenerally result from heavy rainfall in the catchment areaduring the monsoon season.

Pakistan experienced two periods of high floods in1988. First during the period of July/August due to heavyrains in the catchment areas, floods occurred in the Indus,Chenab and Jhelum rivers. Although these rivers re-mained in spate in upper reaches, significant damage wascaused in the lower reaches due to the cumulative effect ofhigh discharges in Indus flowing to south where heavyrains coincided with the high flow period.

In the Western part, from 3 to 6 August 1988, variousareas experienced extremely heavy rainfall resulting inflash floods. The extraordinary wet spell in August causedHoods also in northern Pakistan.

The second flood occurred in September/October,which was caused by heavy rains in the catchment of theChenab, Ravi and Sutlej in India. The duration of highHoods was from 25 September to 10 October 1988. Floods

caused extensive damage to the irrigation networks, roads,railways, telecommunication and power distribution linesand other infrastructure. Emergency breaching sections onthe headworks and bridges in the province of the Punjab inthe Upper Indus Basin, which were provided after the 1973floods, had to be utilized for the first time during 1988relieving pressure on these vital works.

3. Flood management measures in Pakistan

Prior to 1970 catastrophic flood events, flood man-agement was a provincial issue with an unintegrated ap-proach. Flood works were planned on the basis of localrequirements and there were no basic criteria for planningfor the whole country. After the 1970 flood, the countryestablished a central authority, the Federal Flood Commis-sion (FFC), to cope with multifarious problems stemmingfrom the frequent recurrence of flood. It has since preparedtwo flood plans - the National Flood Plan 1978 which hassince been updated in 1987. The updated Plan providesconsistent and economically appropriate flood protectionmeasures for the whole country. Since 1978, flood workshave been constructed according to the national plan andbetter co-ordination has been established between the fed-eral, provincial and military authorities in flood manage-ment efforts.

(a) Structural measures

The existing reservoirs at Tarbela and Chashma onthe Indus River and Mangla on the Jhelum River do nothave any storage capacity specially allocated for floodcontrol. However, filling of these reservoirs can, in mostcases, help in reducing the flood peaks particularly if theyoccur in the early part of the season. Therefore, thereservoirs are operated according to predetermined criteriato ensure, as far as possible, their filling even in the yearsof low inflow and at the same time keeping a significantcapacity for absorption of the high flood peaks exceptthose in the late flood season.

As a result of the predetermined filling criteria, it hasbeen possible to regulate floods through existing reservoirs.Mangla Dam is so far playing a significant role in theattenuation of flood peaks. Tarbela Dam, though commis-sioned in 1974, could not play its due role for floodattenuation owing to massive repair operations on its lowlevel outlets up to the end of the 1980s. Thereafter, nomajor floods were experienced at Tarbela until June 1987,and the reservoir operations were mainly aimed at attenuationof flood peaks in order to avoid their synchronization withpeaks of other major rivers downstream.

There are about 5 400 km of river dykes in Pakistan.They provide the first line of defense against floods. After

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these dykes the loop dykes form large reservoirs behindthe first line of defense. Although there is no uniformity onthe level of protection among different reaches of the river,in general the dykes provide protection of up to 25-yearflood events.

(b) Non-structural measures

The flood forecasting system in Pakistan is based onmeasurement of discharge and computation of flood peaks,by the use of modern devices such as weather rader andcomputers, and then providing warning through a well co-ordinated system to all concerned by a modern telecommu-nication network.

The rainfall measurement and transmission systemin Pakistan consists of about 36 tipping bucket type raingauges installed within the catchmemts of the rivers Indus,Jhelum, Chenab and Ravi. A display board indicating up-to-date information in respect of all the stations is availableat the centre. In order to augment the rainfall data therainfall information from some of the meteorological ob-servatories connected with the warning centre through aradio link is also made use of. For acquisition of rainfalldata from the upper catchment of the Chenab, Ravi andSutlej Rivers a quantitative precipitation measurementradar has been installed at Sialkot. The radar has a wavelength of about 5.32 cm and an effective range of 230 km.

A flood warning centre was established within theoffice building of Director, Flood Forecasting and Warn-ing Centre during the flood season. The Flood WarningCentre comprises the representatives from the Ministry ofInformation, Punjab Government, Water and Power De-velopment Authority (WAPDA) and Army Corps ofEngineers. The Centre is assisted by the Federal FloodCommission, Islamabad. The Centre operates round theclock and is responsible for dissemination of the floodwarning to provincial as well as the federal authoritiesconcerned with flood management and disaster relief op-erations. Dissemination of the flood warnings and theother flood related data is done using the communicationsystem of the Punjab Police.

(c) Future flood protection plans

The strategy of the National Flood Protection Plan isprimarily based upon the results achieved with the executionof the previous plans. The planning objectives are basedon a comprehensive plan utilizing to the maximum theexisting structural and non-structural measures and tomodernize and upgrade them wherever they are needed.The plan includes a review of the existing flood forecast-ing and warning system in Pakistan with specific recom-mendations to modernize the system to comprehend the

problem along with the reinforcement and activation ofother compenents of the non-structural flood managementsystem.

The flood forecasting system is being further improvedboth in the field of remote sensing of the precipitation data,as well as in the field of computerized mathematical mod-elling. The area of warning dissemination and the reliefand rescue operationsl arel also being improved to therequired level. Future development of the flood forecast-ing system envisages installing a number of QPM radars atsuitable locations throughout the country in order to pro-vide the total radar coverage to all regions.

4. Disaster management agencies in Pakistan

In view of the costs involved, Pakistan can ill-affordto maintain permanent disaster management organizationsat all levels, separate from normal administrative machinery.As a result, most of the disaster management duties areperformed by various Government departments on a part-time basis. Like the small full-time organization of theEmergency Relief Cell at Federal level, the ProvincialGovernments also have very small full-time relief departments.A Provincial Relief Department is usually headed by asenior civil servant of the province who performs theseduties in addition to his main duties in his above referredcapacity. Similarly, instead of having separate relief or-ganization at district level the Go vernment off icials holdingvarious posts in different departments automatically assumerelief duties in accordance with a pre-planned scheme.

(a) Emergency Relief Cell

At the national level, the natural disasters are han-dled by the Emergency Relief Cell. It functions underCabinet Division. It is a small organization, but drawshighest support from the whole Government.

The Emergency Relief Cell prepared a disaster reliefplan titled "National Disaster Plan" in 1974 under theguidance of the Office of the United Nations DisasterRelief Coordinator. The purpose of the plan was to estab-lish procedures, prescribe organizational set-up, fix pri-mary responsibilities and support functions of implement-ing agencies involved, and standardize procedures for themonitoring of disaster operations. The National DisasterPlan also indicates the duties and functions of the imple-menting agencies, i.e., Ministries and services which canbe utilized in a disaster situation. The Provincial Govern-ment and District Administration have adopted the NationalDisaster Plan with a few minor modifications to suit theirrequirements.

During the flood season, the Emergency Relief Celloperates a control room on round the clock basis for

II. Case studies on preparedness and response measures todisasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods 55

monitoring the flood situation and coordinating relief ac-tivities. The Control Room remains in touch with theFederal Flood Commission, Islamabad, Flood Forecastingand Warning Centre, Lahore, Army Flood Relief ControlCentre, Rawalpindi, and Flood Control Rooms operatingat District level. The information received at the controlroom is used to keep the Federal Government informedabout the latest flood situation and to make arrangementsfor dispatch of relief goods to the affected areas.

While the Emergency Relief Cell is not an organizationoperating directly in the field, the four helicopters of therelief squadron maintained by the Cell are made availableto the relief agencies busy at the scene of disaster forevacuation of marooned people and for supply of reliefgoods in the areas not accessible through normal means oftransportation.

The Cell maintains stores of relief goods, mainlytents and blankets, for supply to relief agencies forprovidingtemporary shelter to the calamity stricken people duringemergencies. Since 1981 the Emergency Relief Cell hasprovided 4 565 tents, 25 970 blankets, 3 330 quilts, and avariety of other relief goods including edibles and medi-cines to different Provincial governments.

(b) Federal Flood Commission (FFC)

The functions of FFC include (i) Preparation of aflood protection plan for the country; (ii) Approval offlood control protection schemes prepared by provincialgovernments and federal agencies; (iii) Recommendationsregarding principles of regulation reservoirs for flood control;(iv) Review of damage to flood protection works, andreview of plans for restoration and reconstruction works;(v) Measures for improvement of flood forecasting andflood warning systems; (vi) Preparation of a research pro-gramme for flood control and protection; (yii) Standardi-zation of designs and specifications for flood protectionworks; and (viii) Evaluation and monitoring of progress ofimplementation of the national flood protection plan.

(c) Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)

WAPDA's main functions, as far as flood manage-ment is concerned, are operation of reservoirs to retainfloods in such a way as to reduce flood peaks. MoreoverWAPDA provides real-time data to the Pakistan Meteoro-logical Department (PMD) as an input for flood forecast-ing and warning.

Every year, before the onset of the flood season,Water Resource Management Directorate of WAPDA bringsout a publication to delineate the role of WAPDA, in co-operation with other relevant agencies, for the overall

flood management of the Indus Basin. Procedures are laiddown for the judicious operation of the reservoirs for waterconservation and flood attenuation and effective operationand maintenance of the telemetric and telecommunicationnetwork for transmitting the real time hydrological andclimatological data to Flood Forecasting and WarningCentre at Lahore and other Federal and Provincial Agencies.

(d) Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)

The flood forecasting at the rim-station is now beinghandled by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) incollaboration with WAPDA with the use of computerizedmodels installed at the Flood Forecasting and WarningCentre established at Lahore. The resulting warnings areissued individually/severally to various concerned formationsas prescribed in the 'Manual of Irrigation Practice' withsubsequent modifications to enter for the progressive systemadditions and improvements, etc.

(e) Provincial Irrigation Department (PID)

Maintenance and operation of various flood protec-tion works such as embankments, dykes, barrages is theresponsibility of PIDs. The Provincial Irrigation Depart-ments have flood fighting plans of their own in respect ofeach structure such as headworks, canals, drainage systemsand embankments, containing comprehensive informationabout the preparedness for flood fighting, indicating floodlimits and actions required to be taken in case of very highor exceptionally high floods. The breaching sectionswherever required are also indicated, showing levels as towhen they have to be operated.

(f) Pakistan Army

The Pakistan Army helps civil authorities in case ofextreme flood situations. Its functions include: (i) Tocontrol flood relief activities; (ii) To collect informationand disseminate relevant portions to the Ministry of Defenceand Cabinet Division; (iii) To issue necessary warnings tolower formations regarding meteorological data and floodsituations; (iv) To advise allocation of engineering equipment;and (v) To maintain up-to-date flood situation maps.

(g) Relief Departments

Evacuation and relief measures are generally handledby the Provincial Revenue Departments under the guid-ance of the Flood Relief Commissioner (who is a seniorcivil servant). In case of emergencies, help is also soughtfrom the armed forces as well from some para-militaryorganizations such as Rangers, Civil Defense Departmentetc. under the standing arrangements.

56Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

HI. PRACTICAL MEASURES FOR MITIGATION OF WATER-RELATEDNATURAL DISASTERS IN THE ESCAP REGION

by M. Nishihata1

A. Introduction

Every nation in the ESCAP region suffers directlyand indirectly from the damages resulting from recurrentwater-related natural disasters caused by cyclones/typhoonsand floods. However, the natural disasters caused bycyclones/typhoons and floods occur under different envi-ronmental conditions and at different time intervals; therefore,the damages caused are different in each country.

Water-related natural disasters have a severe impacton a nation's normal economic and social development,especially in the developing countries. It is sometimessaid that disaster prevention is a social and economicproblem rather than a problem of technology in developingcountries.

When considering practical countermeasures formitigation of natural disasters, it would be very useful tolearn from the past disaster experiences in one's owncountry and to exchange information between countriesaffected by similar hazards. Historical information andexperiences gained are very important for disaster prevention.

It should be considered that advanced technologiesand systems for disaster prevention in highly industrializedcountries often cannot be transferred to developing coun-tries immediately .because these countermeasures and systemsare unsuitable to the social, economic and technologicalconditions that may exist in the developing countries.

It may therefore be necessary to alter disaster coun-termeasures to suit appropriately the conditions of thecountries receiving assistance.

B. Disaster prevention

Disaster prevention measures should be designed tominimize the damages caused by natural disasters. Inorder to minimize damages caused by water-related natu-ral disasters, it is necessary to establish comprehensivemeasures which include both hardware (structural measures)and software (non-structural measures).

Disaster prevention measures should be integratedand not be fragmented, and should have a good combina-tion of both software and hardware.

Generally, there are three phases to mitigate thedamages caused by water-related natural disasters:

(1) Prevention/preparedness

(2) Emergency countermeasures

(3) Restoration/rehabilitation

C. Prevention/preparedness

Prevention/preparedness for natural disasters is es-sentially the most important measure, but takes a long timeand needs enormous resources.

It is necessary to promote disaster prevention/pre-paredness measures even if slowly, but steadily.

1. Hardware (structural measures)

Long-term structural measures adopted for mitigat-ing damages caused by water-related natural disasters areclassified into two types:

(a) Measures to discharge floods to the sea as soonas possible through waterways protected by strongembankments;

(b) Measures to store floodwater in reservoirs orretarding basins.

Such measures include: river improvement (strengthening and hightening of embankments, construction ofretarding basins, etc.); urban drainage (construction ofpump stations); dam construction (flood control and de-velopment of water resources); sabo works (erosion andsediment control); landslide prevention; construction ofrefugee shelters; construction of meteorological observa-tion facilities; and construction of flood observation facili-ties.

Deputy Director, Disaster Prevention and Restoration Division and IDNDR Promotion Office, River Bureau, Ministry of Construction, Japan.

III. Practical measures for mitigation of water-related natural disastersin the ESCAP region 57

2. Software (non-structural measures)

Practical non-structural measures for mitigation ofwater-related natural disasters are selected consideringvarious conditions, such as the social, economic and tech-nological conditions prevailing in the country. In Japan,these measures could generally be classified as follows:

(a) Laws/regulations

- Basic law on disaster measures

- Act of National Treasury providing contribu-tion to the post-disaster work expenses forrestoration of public facilities

- Flood Fighting Act

- Regulations on land-use

- City planning

(b) Organization

- Disaster Prevention Council

- Basic, operational and local plans for disasterprevention

- Emergency disaster measures headquarters

- Communications network

- Training

(c) Observation/research/statistics

- Flood forecasting and warning systems

- Flood risk mapping

- Research and study

- Manuals and guidelines

- Observations (meteorological, hydrogical)

- Data collection and compilation

- Conducting careful inspections before the floodseason

- Statistics on water-related natural disasters

Structural measures and non-structural measures areboth effective but they all need large capital investment.The difficulty is to determine who will pay the costs.

These measures will take time to implement. InJapan a high continuous embankment could not be finishedin a short time. It has taken a long time and is still underconstruction at present.

In ancient times, a small ring levee was usually builtby the inhabitants of an area to protect their homes andpaddy fields against floods. After that the ring levee wasgradually expanded and resulted in continuous levees be-ing built along both sides of the rivers up to the presenttimes.

D. Emergency countermeasures

Emergency countermeasures should be taken imme-diately during disaster and after the disaster. All availablemeans should be mobilized. Before the disasters strike,training exercises should be periodically undertaken.

Evacuation and relief measures during emergenciesare facilitated by the transfer and distribution of conectinformation in a speedy manner.

1. Flood fighting

In Japan the primary responsibility for flood defencelies with the Flood Defense Administrative Body which isformed at the municipality level. The Prefectural Governmentand the Central Government also have their own responsi-bilities for efficient execution of flood defense activities,giving guidance and assistance to the municipalities.

If the floods become serious, rising beyond the spe-cific water level, the Flood Defense Administrative Bodywill take appropriate action and mobilize flood fightingsquads according to its own work programme. There areapproximately 3 000 flood fighting squads in Japan, hav-ing more than 1 million members ready for any emergency.

Flood forecasting and warning issued by the Nationaland Prefectural organizations are transmitted to the mu-nicipalities through public or exclusive communicationssystems.

The main flood fighting measures employed in Japanare: Sandbag piling which prevents water from overflowingthe levee; and Placing sheets over the levee to preventcollapse due to overflow.

2. Japan Disaster Relief Team (JDR)

When a great disaster occurs in another country, theJapanese government is prepared to dispatch the JapanDisaster Relief Team (JDR) in response to the request ofthe striken country. It goes without saying that financial

58Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

aid and donation of relief goods (medicines, tents, blan-kets, food stuffs, etc.) are also carried out.

JDR consists of three teams as follows:

(a) The Rescue team, which undertakes search andrescue activities, and is composed of rescue members ofthe Fire Defence Agency, National Police Agency andMaritime Safety Agency.

(b) The Medical team is responsible for emergencymedical care activities, including prevention of infectiousdiseases, and is composed of doctors, nurses, etc.

(c) The Expert team undertakes restoration/reha-bilitation work for disaster activities and is composed oftechnicians and engineers.

Expert teams have already been dispatched severaltimes, but they were dispatched more than one month afterthe occurrence of the disaster. Therefore they did theoverall surveying of the damaged area and provided assist-ance and technical guidance for restoration.

In case of a disaster, Rescue and Medical teams arerequested, and dispatched as soon as possible after thereceipt of the request. They commence the emergencyactivities within 48 hours.

E. Restoration and rehabilitation after disaster

Restoration/rehabilitation work should be taken assoon as possible after the implementation of emergencymeasures, and the damaged public facilities should berestored quickly. Procedures and modalities for sharing ofexpenses for disaster restoration/rehabilitation must beestablished.

In Japan, during World War II disaster preventiondid not progress much because of military expenditure.Therefore, after the War, Japan suffered from major disas-ters which caused enormous damages to public facilities.Consequently, a system has been established to restoredamaged public facilities.

The principle of restoration is to restore damagedfacilities to predisaster conditions. Substitute reconstruc-tion is also permitted in case of difficulty or inadequacy inrecreating the original state. In Japan, damaged facilitiesshould be restored within three years and the minimumamount of the national expenditure to be allocated for suchprojects is two-thirds of the total cost.

1. Objectives of the system

Rivers, sea shores, erosion control works, roads andbridges, are closely related to people's lives. Destruction

of these would have serious social and economic repercus-sions and would influence the stabilization of the people'slivelihood.

A large amount of funding is required for restoringdamaged public facilities, since it is far beyond the finan-cial ability of local government, which normally managessuch facilities, to bear the burden of reconstruction costs.In Japan, the national government provides special finan-cial assistance to such local governments in order to assurepublic welfare.

The National Treasury Contribution Act, which de-termines national treasury contribution to disaster restora-tion expenditure, has the following purpose; "It deter-mines government contributions to the restoration ex-penses of damaged public facilities to match the financialability of the local government concerned and, thereby,assures the public welfare by the quick restoration offacilities". Naturally, public facilities which are manageddirectly by the government are restored at the nationaltreasury's expense.

Japan is subjected to frequent natural disasters due toits geographical location, topographical and geologicalfeatures. Every year, typhoons and torrential rains causeconsiderable damage throughout the country, sometimescausing deaths and destroying large amounts of property.These have serious adverse effects on people's lives andthe social economy.

The total amount of damages sustained by publicfacilities under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Con-struction (MOC) in 1990 was 908.5 billion yen, consistingof those under direct jurisdiction by MOC (223.5 billionyen) and those subsidized by MOC (685.0 billion yen).The principal causes of these damages were heavy rains ofthe seasonal rain front, typhoons and torrential rains. Therestoration of the damaged property project is to be com-pleted in two years (disaster affecting facilities underdirect control) and in three years (disaster affecting subsi-dized facilities).

As for extremely heavily damaged places amongsubsidized facilities, improvement and restoration work isto be done under a fixed plan and additional fundamentalimprovement work is to be undertaken as a disaster-relatedproject. This restoration work is to be completed in threeto five years. Expenditure on disaster restoration workconsists of the total of direct main work expenses, inciden-tal work expenses, land expenses etc. (called fieldworkexpenses) and office work expense. Work expenses in-clude emergency expenses for the work undertaken beforedetermination of the project expense.

III. Practical measures for mitigation of water-related natural disastersin the ESCAP region 59

2. Determination of disaster restoration workexpense

million yen), the decision is reserved, and is made after adiscussion between MOC and the Ministry of Finance.

(a) Report of disaster

When public facilities are damaged by abnormalnatural phenomena, they must be reported without delay.In Japan when a damaged facility is managed and maintainedby municipalities, the mayor reports it to the prefecturalgovernor.

When the prefectural governor receives a report fromthe mayor of a municipality, he/she must summarize andreport it to the concerned Minister in an established formatwithout delay.

(b) Application for national treasury contribution

In Japan, the expenditure for a disaster restorationproject to be paid by the national treasury is determined bythe concerned Minister after reviewing the material submittedby the local government concerned and the results of thefield survey. The concerned Minister makes a decisionwhen he/she receives an application from the head of alocal government. In addition to the report and the costestimate, the related drawings, meteorological data, materialon causes and current status, and disaster statistics areattached to the application form.

(c) Assessment of disaster

In Japan, after receiving an application for nationaltreasury contribution, the concerned Minister dispatchesnecessary personnel to conduct a field investigation. MOChas disaster assessment officers who undertake such as-sessment work to determine the cost of a disaster restora-tion project. This type of field investigation is called"disaster assessment".

Disaster assessment is also reviewed by inspectorsfrom the Ministry of Finance. The project cost is determinedfor major items of expenditure, with minor items to beconsidered later since the mission of the disaster reliefsystem is quick restoration, and applications are madefrom a large number of places.

For those places which are accepted for reconstruc-tion funding, as the result of disaster assessment, theamount of the agreed expenditure, field assessmeni/deskassessment and emergency rank are written in red on thecover of the project document. As for those incidentswhich cannot be accepted, the reason for rejection is written.

As for those places which need a further study orrequire very large amounts of expenditure (more than 200

(d) Determination and notification of the disasterrestoration work expenditure

Disaster restoration work expenditure is determinedby the Minister of Construction. When the Minister ofConstruction determines a project cost, he/she notifies theGovernor concerned. As for disaster restoration projectexpenditure for city/town/village, the Governor concernednotifies the mayor concerned.

(e) Re-investigation

In some cases, meteorological or topographical con-ditions bring about various changes at damaged places.Therefore, it becomes necessary to make significant changesand the initially determined project expenses become in-sufficient. For this reason, a re-investigation is conductedto review the project expense in the third year of thedisaster restoration work.

3. Government budgetary measures and successcertification

Ordinary public facilities such as roads, bridges,dams and embankments., are constructed and improvedaccording to a long-term plan. However, disaster restora-tion works are undertaken when abnormal natural phenomenasuch as typhoons, earthquakes and heavy snow occur andcause a disaster. Therefore, it is difficult to determine thescale of work in advance and make the necessary budget-ary requests.

When a local government undertakes disaster resto-ration works with the central government's contribution, itmust calculate the expenses exactly without delay andobtain a certification from the Minister of Construction.Such a certification means that inspection has been carriedout to determine whether the results of restoration worksare in line with the law and regulations concerning disasterassessment.

4. Prom occurrence of disaster to completion ofrestoration work

When a public facility managed by municipalities isdamaged by a natural hazard, the mayor of the city/town/village must report it to the Prefectural Governor withoutdelay. If a disaster occurs to a public facility which ismanaged by the prefecture, the Governor must report it tothe concerned Minister without delay.

60Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

This report becomes the important basic material fordetermination of measures which are taken for each disasterby the government.

Disaster assessment is the field investigation whichis conducted by assessment officers for determining theexpenditure that would be required, most of which isdetermined, in effect, in the field.

Assessment officers then determine the expenditurefor reconstruction works on the basis of the NationalTreasury Act mentioned earlier and of various other regu-lations.

Damaged public facilities are to be restored by theorganization which manages and maintains them. How-ever, adequate and quick restoration is difficult because inJapan local government finances are limited.

In view of the above, the National Treasury Act andother regulations were established for quick restoration ofdamaged public facilities by determining the levels ofcontributions from different sources according to the financialability of local governments.

5. Procedures of disaster assessment

The procedure for disaster assessment is as follows:

(a) General description

Prior to assessment work, the following items are tobe reported by the prefecture: The characteristics of thedisaster; the abnormal meteorological conditions; the numberof places affected; the amount of expenditure; the distribu-tion scheme to places affected; schedule and organization.

(b) Field assessment

The damaged area under investigation is delineatedwith marking poles and the length of the damaged site ismeasured with a scale tape.

The applicant identifies the damaged area, the amountof funding applied for, the outlines of required work, etc.and describes the method of restoration work desired. Theassessment officer reviews and confirms the state of dam-ages and determines the extent of damaged areas. Theassessment officer may approve or reject the applicationafter checking the method of restoration work required andexamining the design documentation for the restorationwork.

(t) Desk assessmentA desk assessment is sufficient if the amount required

by the application is less than two million yen or if a field

assessment is difficult for an unavoidable reason, A deskassessment is made at the prefectural or municipal work office,and the state of damages is judged only by using photographs,taken correctly from various view points. When the state ofdamages is uncertain, a field assessment is made.

(d) Consideration required for selection of themethod of work

The required work method is selected by followingthe procedure outlined below:

Study the cause of the damage for preventingrepetition;

Select the method of restoration work that matchesthe site;

Select an economical method;

Select the method which will make a positiveeconomic impact;

Select a unified method (do not change methodsdrastically; use the same method for upstreamand downstream, and for front, rear, left andright);

Select the method that would utilize materialthat can be obtained locally.

(e) Correction in red

In accordance with the results of the disaster assess-ment, the method of restoration work and cost estimatescan be altered, and the applicant then corrects the designdocumentation and the cost estimates. The assessmentofficer makes a final check and revises the design docu-ment and finalizes the cost estimates, and writes themdown with a red pen.

The disaster assessment procedures ends here.

F. Conclusion

The Tokyo declaration on IDNDR stated that "Fatal-ism is no longer acceptable; it is time to bring the full forceof scientific and technological advancement to reduce thehuman tragedy and economic loss of natural disasters".

The major principles and measures for water-relatednatural disasters such as cyclones/typhoons and floods aresummarized as follows:

1. Meteorological and hydrogical observations, research,studies and collection of statistics of water-related naturaldisaster are required.

III. Practical measures for mitigation of water-related natural disastersin the ESCAP region 61

2. Comprehensive disaster mitigation plans consistingof both structural (hardware) and non-structural (software)measures should be formulated promptly.

3. Within the limits of available budget, the priority ofdisaster measures should be considered from both eco-nomical and social points of view.

4. Structural measures need large capital investmentsand therefore are hard to undertake. However, they mustbe undertaken, even at a slow but steady pace.

5. The investigation of damages caused by water-re-lated natural disasters should be carried out promptly andappropriately. Due to lack of timely and accurate information,one is not able to grasp the damages sustained in detail. Ifcoordination among the national and municipal adminis-trations in charge of emergency measures is not adequate,appropriate measures against natural disasters cannot becarried out.

6. If restoration/rehabilitation work is not carried outfor some reason, such as lack of adequate finances ortechnical difficulties, secondary disasters or other unfavourableevents may occur because of lack of restoration work, inturn leading to a larger disaster.

7. It is necessary to encourage the people inhabiting theflood plains to participate in flood fighting activities and itis important for them to cooperate in daily activities forreduction of damages caused by water-related natural dis-asters.

8. As for global environmental problems, research onglobal climate change is needed urgently all over theworld. It is recommended that international action re-quired for reduction of natural disasters which may becaused by global climate change should be undertakenimmediately.

62Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

IV. SUGGESTED POLICIES FOR REDUCTION OF DISASTERS CAUSEDBY TYPHOONS, CYCLONES AND FLOODS

A. Introduction

The policies to mitigate the impact of the disasterscaused by cyclones/typhoons and floods should be com-prehensive and consider the following three time frames:

(1) Disaster prevention—long-term activities, whichare achieved by using permanent controls andare implemented in advance of the disaster;

(2) Disaster preparedness—short-term measures,which are planned in advance but carried outduring the emergency;

(3) Disaster rehabilitation—post-disaster activities.

Post-disaster activities are sometimes treated as partof disaster preparedness. However, rehabilitation canextend over months and even years after the occurrence ofthe disaster and cannot be considered as short-term measures.Rather they should be regarded as a preceding stage oflong-term disaster prevention. Therefore, they are treatedseparately in this paper.

These three kinds of measures are not isolated activitiessince they can be undertaken together or one can be acontinuation of the other. This is because not all disasterscan be prevented, and preventive measures may fail. Thus,to limit or mitigate the effects of the disasters which cannotbe prevented, certain measures have to be undertaken toreturn the community to normality as soon as possible afterthe event.

The policies should not be too specific to each haz-ard, and should be integrated into a set of overall policiesrelating to all kinds of natural disasters.

tion and regulatory measures principally in the fields ofphysical and urban planning, public works and buildings.

Before disaster prevention measures are taken, char-acteristics of hazards and resulting damages should be-properly assessed.

2. Assessment of hazards

The description and assessment of hazards should beregarded as the first element of disaster prevention. Oc-currence of cyclones/typhoons and floods should be sci-entifically and statistically evaluated. For this purpose,observation and archive systems should be established andproperly maintained. Records of various forms, whichwould be continuously updated and improved by thesesystems, should be utilized to estimate the frequency,nature and extent of these hazards. Risk maps would be anexcellent means for expressing severity of these hazards.

Recent advances in remote sensing techniques offernew opportunities for a more efficient and more compre-hensive assessment of these hazards. The special contri-butions that satellite systems have made to meteorologyand climatology include their global coverage of data,spatial continuity of data and ability of homogeneousinvestigation of selected elements.

Simulation techniques also provide useful tools forassessment of floods and storm surges. Availability ofhigh speed microcomputers at relatively low costs madethe application of various simulation models possible forpractical purposes in the developing countries. Thesemodels are utilized both in planning of flood control measuresand in flood forecasting and warning.

B. Disaster prevention

1. General

Disaster prevention may be described as applicationof measures designed to prevent natural phenomena fromcausing or resulting in disaster or other related emergencysituations. It is concerned with the formulation and imple-mentation of long-range policies and programmes to pre-vent or eliminate the occurrence of disasters on the basis ofvulnerability analysis of all risks. It also includes legisla-

3. Assessment of damages

The assessment of a country's vulnerability to cy-clones/typhoons and flooding can be divided into twophases as follows:

(a) Delineation of areas exposed to cyclones/ty-phoons and flooding;

(b) Assessment of losses and damages that repre-sent and quantify the consequences of thesehazards in a socio-economic context.

IV. Suggested policies for reduction of disasters caused by typhoons, cyclones and floods 63

The first phase of the assessment is technical andprovides estimates of vulnerability to these hazards. Thesecond phase is more difficult to achieve because: (a) thelosses and damages depend on the type and intensity ofland uses which vary in time; (b) plans and policies arefuture-oriented, whereas factual data on losses relate to thepast; (c) hazard events, particularly extreme ones, are rareand it is virtually impossible to collect representative setsof records from flood damage statistics even if such dataare regularly collected for long periods.

Total damages include direct damages, which resultfrom physical contact with water, and indirect damages,such as the cost of disruption to business and to livingconditions. Intangible damages, such as death, sickness,stress and anxiety, are also a major part of total damages.

Damages other than direct damages are difficult toevaluate in monetary terms. Some indirect damages maybe estimated as a proportion of direct damages. In Japan,for example, damages due to suspension of business areestimated by multiplying direct damages excluding thoseto public facilities by 0.06. Other indirect damages, suchas disruption of living conditions, are not readily obtainable,because undisputed methods for determining effects ofhazards on these damages have not been established. Acomprehensive method for damage evaluation, includingall kinds of damages should be sought for application.This might involve an extremely difficult task of expressinglife, health and convenience in monetary terms.

The survey of damages should be carried out aftereach significant hazard event and the information shouldbe properly compiled. Such information could be utilizedin developing simulation techniques for assessing the po-tential damages caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods,which will combine physical hazard simulation modelsand hazard-damage functions such as depth-damage, windspeed-damage functions.

4. Disaster prevention measures

The principal preventive measures employed to curbthe destructive and injurious effects of tropical cyclonesare building design and construction standards to resistwind and water. The range of measures available toprotect against the effects of flooding is much wider thanthat available to reduce the impact of tropical cyclones. Itincludes civil engineering oriented structural measures,such as channel modifications, flood storages and levees,as well as other measures, such as planning controls andflood proofing of buildings, which are referred to as non-structural measures. These measures are designed andimplemented to reduce the incidence or extent of floodingand storm surges and/or the effects of them.

The selection of the best combination of measures toprevent the occurrence of future flood or storm-surgedisasters should be based on the consideration of all theavailable structural and non-structural measures. Theoptimum combination of measures should be based on riskanalysis and the economic performance of the overallscheme. Consideration of social and environmental factorsas well as the legislative and legal constraints should alsobe included in the planning process.

C, Disaster preparedness

1. General

Disaster preparedness may be described as the actiondesigned to minimize loss of life and property damage andto organize and facilitate timely and effective rescue andrelief in the case of disaster. It is supported by necessarylegislation which can achieve readiness to cope with disas-ter situations or similar emergencies which cannot beavoided. It is also concerned with forecasting and warn-ing, the education and training of the population, andorganization for and management of disaster situationsincluding the preparation of operational plans, training ofrelief groups, the stockpiling of supplies and provision ofthe necessary funds.

These disaster preparedness measures, including thosewhich are taken when the occurrence of a tropical cyclone,flood or storm surge imposes the threat of a disaster,should be planned well in advance.

2. Structure of disaster preparedness activities

A number of organizations of various levels areinvolved in the disaster preparedness activities. A co-ordinating body at each level should be established forstreamlining the planning process and assuring properimplementation of the plan.

In an emergency the major tasks are apt to fall uponcommunities. It is at this level that evidence will be foundwhether the overall planning has been sufficiently compre-hensive and co-ordinated to develop the necessary highdegree of motivation among the responsible people as wellas among the general public in carrying out the wholerange of measures which the emergency demands.

The terms of reference and functions of such a bodyshould be clearly set out and would include such matters asthe following:

(a) To keep the population and its property, installa-tions, etc. constantly prepared for an emergency arisingfrom natural hazards;

64Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

(b) To keep under review, and to take all appropriateaction on matters likely to reduce danger and devastationfrom natural hazards;

(c) To supervise the warning systems and the organiza-tion for dealing with emergencies;

(d) To direct and control rescue and relief work;

(e) To maintain liaison with the press, radio and televi-sion and to organize programmes for public informationand education;

(f) To organize a survey of deaths, injuries and damagesafter each emergency and to take action based on thelessons learned.

A plan of disaster management activities of thePhilippines, an extract from the Rules and RegulationsImplementing the Provisions of Presidential Decree,"Strengthening the Philippine Disaster Control Capabilityand Establishing the National Programme on CommunityDisaster Preparedness", is attached as an appendix.

3. Flood fighting

Unlike other disaster preparedness activities, whichcan be considered as a local and self-help responsibility, ithas long been realized that when a flood constitutes athreat to a number of neighbouring communities, co-ordinatedflood fighting under unified control is much more effectivethan independent action by each community. For example,a system of levees may protect several communities andthis system should be patrolled and maintained as a singleunit rather than a number of isolated elements.

D. Disaster rehabilitation

1. General

Disaster rehabilitation including resettlement wouldfill the gap between emergency activities of disaster pre-paredness and long-term activities of disaster prevention.Although rehabilitation constitutes an important part ofactivities for reduction of suffering caused by disasters, itsimportance has not been recognized as much as it shouldbe.

Emergency measures during major disasters and re-lief activities immediately after them attract much moreattention and are covered more heavily by mass media thanthe rehabilitation phase. This is partly because these aredirectly related to death, injury or illness suffered duringthe disaster. Due attention, however, should be given,internationally as well as nationally, to rehabilitation ac-

tivities, notwithstanding that they are less dramatic innature compared to the short-term measures.

2. Rehabilitation

The basic purpose of rehabilitation is to provideservices and facilities which will restore communities,families and individuals to their former living standardswhile at the same time encouraging any necessary adjust-ments to drastic changes caused by the disaster that hasoccurred. However, because disasters caused by cyclones/typhoons and floods are often recurring, the aim of arehabilitation programme should include improving ratherthan merely restoring the accustomed living standard andsocial conditions. For example, flood control facilitieswhich have failed should be upgraded, and houses andbuildings destroyed or severely damaged by cyclones/typhoons should be rehabilitated and improved so as tobecome cyclone/typhoon-resistant.

Rehabilitation should be carried out in a two-prongedprogramme covering, on the one hand, the victims of thedisaster and on the other hand the public services andamenities. For the victims, assistance may include therepair of homes, the provision of basic home needs such asfurniture and kitchen utensils, the provision of food andclothing and resettlement. In this programme, morale isone of the most important factors in rehabilitation. Thisfactor should be considered in relation to the communityitself and also in relation to families and individuals. It ispossible for people to emerge from a disaster in a hopelessand apathetic state of mind. If this attitude is allowed topersist, people affected will become over-dependent onwelfare services and be a permanent burden on the nation.A spirit of high morale can be fostered by helping peopleto realize that the efforts made on their behalf are promptedby a regard for their value to the country and by the desireto promote feelings of self-reliance and a determination toparticipate in the work and social life of a communitygrowing in prosperity.

The rehabilitation of public services and amenitiesmakes a most important contribution to the recovery of acommunity and would include such matters as the repair ofroads and bridges, the restoration of the various publicutilities, assistance to industry and commerce to resumefull activity and a variety of activities to assist agriculture.

Disaster rehabilitation includes the following meas-

ures:

(a) Repair and restoration of damaged public infrastruc-tures, such as levees, roads and ports, public utilities,educational, welfare and agricultural facilities;

IV. Suggested policies for reduction of disasters caused by typhoons, cyclones and floods 65

(b) Loans, under softer conditions than usual, to personswho suffer disaster damage;

(c) Insurance;

(d) Reduction, suspension or exemption of income andproperty taxes.

portation and services. It is evident that the formulation ofresettlement plans calls for close inter-ministerial andinter-departmental co-ordination at all levels of govern-ment. Ministries responsible for housing and urban devel-opment, public works, regional and physical planning,etc., are important contributors.

3. Resettlement

Resettlement may be an expensive, and probablyquestionable solution for large communities, particularlyfor certain types of natural disaster. However, in flood-prone areas, the issues are clearer than in many otherdisaster-prone situations, and the community as a wholemay see a common benefit in moving on to higher and saferground.

Resettlement involves not only questions of locationbut also such aspects as availability of employment, trans-

Relocation is often necessary as a temporary meas-ure following the occurrence of a flood. Flood-strickenpopulations rendered homeless as a result of destruction oftheir accommodation by floodwater require emergency,and subsequently, permanent settlement. It is often thepoor and underprivileged who are forced to live in flood-affected properties. Being carried out properly, relocationand resettlement immediately after disasters can improvethe squatter problems. If not, these people will occupy thesame areas and keep suffering from disasters.

66Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

Appendix. PHILIPPINE PROGRAMME ON COMMUNITY DISASTER.PREPAREDNESS.Extract from the Rules and Regulations Implementing the Provisions of Presidential Decree,

"Strengthening the Philippine Disaster Control Capability and Establishingthe National Programme on Community Disaster Preparedness"

DISASTER MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES

A. PRE-DISASTER PHASE

The pre-disaster activities to be undertaken arethe following:

1. Planning for Disasters

The National Disaster Coordinating Council(NDCC), through the Office of Civil Defense,shall review and evaluate all documented planssubmitted by all government entities, politicalsubdivisions as well as private organization asto compliance with pertinent advice/instruc-tions and/or guidelines set forth in the NationalCalamities and Disaster Preparedness Plan.

2. Organizing

a. The National Disaster Coordinating Councilthrough the Office of Civil Defense, shallspearhead the organization of Disaster Co-ordinating Councils from the Regional downto the Barangay levels in coordination withthe Ministry of Local Government whichshall act as the overseer of the councils.

b. All other government ministries, agencies,offices, entities and instrumentalities, in-cluding large private institutions, shall es-tablish their respective disaster control or-ganizations.

3. Training

a. The Ministry of Local Government shallconduct training of members of local dis-aster coordinating councils in coordina-tion with theOfficeof Civil Defense (OCD),the Ministry of Social Services and Devel-opment (MSSD), the Philippine NationalRed Cross (PNRC), and other appropriateagencies.

b. The Ministry of Social Services and De-velopment shall undertake training on dis-aster preparedness of barangay tri-sectoralgroups and shall assist in the training ofDisaster Coordinating councils at all lev-els.

c. The Philippine National Red Cross shallconduct disaster leadership training coursesand shall assist in the training of the Disas-ter Coordinating Councils.

d. The Ministry of Education and Culture(MEC) shall assist in the public educationcampaign through integration in the schoolcurricula of subjects relative to the differ-ent calamities, their causes and precau-tionary measures.

e. The Ministry of Trade and Industry shalltrain disaster control groups and reactionteams in large buildings used for commer-cial purposes.

f. The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) shallprovide guidance and assistance in thetraining of disaster coordinating councilmembers and disaster control groups.

g. All other training activities shall be asenumerated and prescribed in the NationalCalamities and Disaster Preparedness Plan.

4. Drills

All agencies responsible for organizingDisaster Control Groups (DCGs) shall also beresponsible for the conduct of periodic drillsand exercises.

The Ministry of National Defence, throughthe Office of Civil Defense, shall assist and/orobserve and provide critique in the conduct ofdrills and exercises.

IV. Suggested policies for reduction of disasters caused by typhoons, cyclones and floods 67

5. Public Information Drive

a. The Office of Media Affairs (OMA), incoordination with the OCD as well as othergovernment or private entities with facilitiesfor disseminating information, shall con-duct public information campaigns ondisaster prevention, control and mitigationmeasures.

b. The OCD, in coordination with the OMA,shall prepare disaster control manuals, hand-outs and other publications as well as au-dio-visual materials related to disasterprevention, control and mitigation meas-ures.

b. The Disaster Coordinating Councils in alllevels shall be responsible for the organi-zation of warning units.

c. The building owners through their disastercontrol teams shall be responsible for warningall occupants thereof of any impendingdisaster.

d. The warning agencies shall provide, to thefullest extent possible, information con-cerning impending disasters including es-timated intensity, duration and scope.

B. EMERGENCY PHASE

c.

d.

Stocking

a. Provisions for basic necessities such asfood, clothing, shelter, medical suppliesand transportation, shall be given priorityin any stockpiling activity.

b. The Ministry of Social Services and De-velopment (MSSD) and the Philippine Na-tional Red Cross (PNRC) shall pre-deter-mine the quantity of relief goods that mightbe required in particular areas and pre-position the same in disaster-prone areas.

The Ministry of Health shall stockpilemedicines and medical supplies for possi-ble deployment in disaster areas.

The local disaster coordinating councils,especially in disaster-prone areas, shallpre-determine the food, clothing, shelter,medical supplies and other emergency re-quirements of the community and shalltake appropriate measures for stockpilingof such supplies and materials.

e. Disaster Coordinating Councils and othercivic organizations may conduct drives forthe collection of used clothing and sort,repair or mend and launder them beforestockpiling for the purpose stated herein.

Communications and Warning Activities

a. The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) andother tasked agencies shall disseminatethe warning in formation as well as pre-cautionary measures to the public.

1. Emergency Service

a. GENERAL

(1) Emergency services and interventionactivities likely to be needed in thedisaster area are rescue and engineer-ing, evacuation, first-aid and medicalrelief, police auxiliary, fire, andtransportation services.

(2) The above services shall be coordi-nated and orchestrated by the localdisaster coordinating council of theaffected locality.

b. RESCUE AND ENGINEERING

(1) The local disaster coordinating coun-cils shall supervise rescue and engi-neering activities within their areas ofresponsibility.

(2) In case of air crashes outside the air-field, the nearest Disaster Coordinat-ing Council (DCC) shall undertakeinitial response until the arrival of theBureau of Air Transportation officialswho shall then take over responsibil-ity for the rescue operation.

(3) The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) shallbe responsible for the coordination ofrescue activities at sea.

(4) The Armed Forces of the Philippinesshall, whenever possible, assist thelocal disaster coordinating councilsduring emergencies.

68Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

(5) The Ministry of Public Works andHighways shall, whenever possible,lend equipment and manpower to lo-cal rescue and engineering units.

c. EVACUATION

(1) The Disaster Coordinating Councils(DCCs) shall be responsible for or-ganizing evacuation teams for thetransfer of disaster victims or poten-tial victims to safer grounds.

(2) The regional and provincial disastercoordinating councils shall extendassistance to their lower level coun-cils whenever the situation has dete-riorated beyond the capabilities ofthe latter to cope with.

(3) The Armed Forces of the Philippinesshall, whenever possible, assist in theevacuation activities. Authority fromhigher headquarters shall be sought ineach case.

d. FIRST-AID AND MEDICALSERVICES

(1) The Health Services shall consists ofthe Ministry of Health personnel andthe PNRC first-aiders and volunteerworkers who administer first-aid atthe disaster areas.

(2) Patients who require further medicalattention or hospitalization and/orsurgical intervention shall appropri-ately be evacuated.

(3) Measures shall be undertaken toprevent the occurrence/outbreak ofepidemics and to control them, asnecessary.

e. DISASTER RELIEF SERVICES

The local disaster coordinatingcouncils, in coordination with the Minis-try of Social Services and Developmentand the Philippine National Red Cross shallbe responsible for undertaking immediatesurvey of the disaster area and providemass feeding, emergency housing, emer-gency clothing and missing persons tracingservices, as necessary.

f. POLICE AUXILIARY SERVICES

(1) Police Auxiliary Services organizedin accordance with existing laws shallaugment the regular police forces intime of disaster. The PC/INP StationCommander shall be responsible fortheir organization and control.

(2) The Director-General, IntegratedNational Police, shall prescribe theduties, functions and responsibilitiesof the Police Auxiliary Service.

g. AUXILIARY FIRE SERVICE

(1) The existing fire department in citiesand municipalities shall be the centerof the Auxiliary Fire Service. TheFire Station Commander of the Inte-grated National Police, is also con-currently the Chief of the AuxiliaryFire Service.

(2) In case of fire, the Auxiliary FireService shall coordinate with the Chiefof the local fire service within thelocality and shall assist in the controlthereof.

(3) The Director-General, IntegratedNational Police, shall prescribe theduties, functions, and responsibili-ties of the Auxiliary Fire Service.

h. EMERGENCY TRANSPORTATIONSERVICES

(1) The Ministry of Transportation andCommunications and other govern-ment ministries, agencies and enti-ties, as well as the private sector,shall, whenever possible, makeavailable for use by the disasterrelief teams their organic transporta-tion facilities.

(2) The Bureau of Air Transportationshall be responsible for coordinatingwith airline companies for the air-lifting of victims and supplies dur-ing emergencies; and

(3) The Philippine Coast Guard shallcoordinate with the Conference ofInter-Island Ship Owners for the use

IV. Suggested policies for reduction of disasters caused by typhoons, cyclones and floods 69

of vessels, ships, motor boats or bancasto transport relief, supply, person-nel, and victims during emergencies.

gency data obtained by local disaster coordi-nating councils to facilitate the location andwhereabouts of persons and to assess availablecommunity resources for rehabilitation purposes.

i. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

The local disaster coordinating councilsshall conduct immediate survey of the disasterarea to determine casualties and damagesto infrastructure, agriculture, aquatic re-sources, animal life and other properties.Results of the survey shall be reported tothe operations center of the affected localityfor initial assessment. It shall be sentthrough the next higher disaster coordinatingcouncil for transmittal to the NDCC throughOCD for final evaluation and appropriateaction.

C. POST EMERGENCY

1. CROSS-CHECKING OF DATA

All information gathered during an emer-gency shall be cross-checked with pre-emer-

REHABILITATION REQUIREMENTS

The local disaster coordinating councilswithin their respective levels shall determinethe nature and extent of the rehabilitation effortto be undertaken and shall request assistancefrom appropriate government agencies, privateoffices/agencies or individuals, if the situationgoes beyond their capability.

RESPONSIBILITY FOR EMERGENCYLABOUR SUPPLY

The Ministry of Labour and Employmentshall coordinate and synchronize with appro-priate agencies, the hiring of labour from theaffected population as may be needed for therestoration, repair and construction of publicbuildings, roads, dams, harbours, airports andsuch other public infrastructure damaged bydisasters or calamities.

70Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

V. ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION OF DROUGHTSIN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

byV.V.N. Murty*

A. Introduction

The Asian and Pacific region served by the UnitedNations Economic and Social Commission for Asia andthe Pacific (ESCAP) extends from the Islamic Republic ofIran in the west to Japan in the north-east and the CookIslands in the south-east; from Mongolia and China in thenorth to Australia and New Zealand in the south. Theregion covers almost half of the total surface area of theearth; approximately from 45° East longitude at the Westernborder of Iran to 156° West longitude at the easternmostpoint of the Cook Islands. It covers about 31 millionsquare kilometres of land area.

The available information indicates that several countriesin the ESCAP region are afflicted with the drought hazardintermittently. In many countries of the region, a majorityof the population is dependent on agriculture and is rurallybased. In case of droughts it is generally this strata of thesociety that is adversely affected. Considering historicalinformation, droughts have caused negative impacts rangingfrom reduction in agricultural output to large scale economicdevastation. As civilization progressed, many of thecountriesin the region became better prepared both administrativelyand technically to deal with the drought situations. In spiteof this, droughts will continue to occur in the future andthere is a need to prepare adequately for them.

The occurrence of droughts is not limited to a particularregion or country in the world. However, it has beenobserved that their impact has been completely differentin developed and developing countries because of theseveral socio-economic factors influencing both thebehaviourial and management patterns. Even within thedeveloping countries, the effects of droughts could vary,but the fact remains that during the drought the groupsmost seriously affected are the economically weaker sec-tions of the population. Solanes (1986) drawing upon thisfact outlines several legislative approaches to droughtmanagement. Quoting Theodore H. White from "In Searchof History" it can be said "Drought is nature's guilt, buthuman suffering from drought is man made".

In this paper, the topic of drought is briefly reviewedin the context of the countries of the ESCAP region and therecent available information regarding their occurrences ispresented. The countries responded to the droughts withvarious management measures and available informationon this topic is presented. Drawing upon the experiencesfrom the countries in theregion and other available information,possible measures are suggested for drought management.It is hoped that the scientists, engineers and administratorsin these countries will be aware of the issues involved andtake effective measures in their spheres of activity.

B. Droughts as natural disasters

1. General

Droughts can be considered as extreme hydrologicevents causing acute water shortages detrimental to human,plant and animal existence in the affected areas. Unlikeother natural disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons andfloods, the occurrence of droughts is not sudden but theireffects are prolonged and in some situations equally detrimentalas other natural disasters. In countries where a majority ofthe population are dependent on agriculture, the effects ofprolonged drought are devastating. In such situationswhile the urban populations may be able to withstanddrought to some extent the vast rural masses are badlyaffected. As a result of droughts, significant adverseeconomic consequences to the country are caused in termsof reduction or elimination of agricultural production,effect on energy generation, effect on livestock systems,population migration and finally resources needed formitigation of the resulting hazards.

In spite of this, it can be stated that droughts differfrom other natural disaster in several ways. First of all,their occurrence is not sudden and hence affords time toplan for their mitigation. Next, with the currently availableknowledge and research information , in many situationsthe effects of droughts could be largely counteracted, if notcompletely eliminated.

Associate Professor, Agricultural Land and Water Development Programme, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand.

V. Assessment and mitigation of droughts in Asia and the Pacific 71

2. Identification of drought conditions

In understanding drought one may accept in generalthat "Drought is a condition of moisture deficit sufficientto have an adverse affect on vegetation, animals and manover a sizable area" (Warrick, 1975). Drought has to bedistinguished from arid and semi-arid conditions as in suchsituations the human activity gets adjusted to the recurrentclimatic conditions. Droughts can occur under differentclimatic conditions but their recurrence and effects aremore pronounced in arid and semi-arid situations.

Three common categories of drought situations are:

(a) Meteorological Drought: Meteorological defi-nitions of drought are the most prevalent and are basedupon the degree of dryness and duration of dry period.Meteorological drought is referred to as " a period ofabnormally dry weather, sufficiently prolonged for thelack of water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in theaffected area" (Huschbe, 1959). Rainfall is the mostcommon parameter used in defining the meteorologicaldrought.

(b) Agricultural Drought: In the context of agricul-ture, drought is referred to as a "climatic condition involv-ing shortage of precipitation sufficient to adversely affectcrop production or range production" (Rosenberg, 1979).Rainfall and the soil moisture are the two importantparametersand drought conditions are said to exist when either ofthese are inadequate during the crop season to supporthealthy crop growth to maturity.

(c) Hydrologic Drought: This refers to "a period ofbelow average water content in streams, reservoirs, groundwater aquifers, lakes and soils" (Yevjevich, 1967). Mete-orological drought, if prolonged, results in hydrologicaldroughts with marked depletion of surface water and groundwater resources.

Another categorization which is not commonly quotedis the socio-economic drought which refers to an acutescarcity of water resulting in the disruption of the supplyand demand equation of socio-economic goods like food,fodder and water. In a given situation it is necessary tounderstand the important attributes and characteristics ofdrought which affect the human society.

3. Drought indices

Drought conditions are basically due to a deficit ofwater supply either in time or in space. Deficit watersupply conditions may be in precipitation, runoff (streamflows), orin accumulated water in various storage capacitieslike soil moisture, reservoir or groundwater aquifers. Indescribing a drought it is necessary to understand its dura-tion, areal extent, severity, probability of recurrence and

its initiation and termination. Depending on the arealextent, the drought can be referred to as a point drought,the small area drought or the large continental drought(Yevjevich, 1967).

In order to characterize a drought situation, severalindices are in vogue. Wilhite and Glantz (1985) discussthe different definitions for understanding the droughtphenomenon.

Some meteorological drought indicators developedfor application in various countries of the world as men-tioned in Wilhite and Glantz (1985) are:

(a) less than 2.5 mm of rainfall in forty-eight hours(United States);

(b) fifteen days, none of which received as much as0.25 mm (Britain);

(c) actual seasonal rainfall is deficient by more thantwice the mean deviation (India); and

(d) a period of six days without rain (Bali).

The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), is one ofthe well-known meteorologic drought indicators. ThePDSI relates drought severity to the accumulated weighteddifferences between actual precipitation and the precipita-tion requirement of evapotranspiration in a region. Al-though referred to as a drought index, PDSI is used toevaluate prolonged periods of abnormally wet or dry weather.The PDSI has been later modified by Palmer (as quoted inWilhite and Glaniz, 1985) to reflect agricultural droughtconditions. The Crop Moisture Index (CMI) defined droughtin terms of the magnitude of computed abnormal(Evapotranspiration) ET deficit. This deficit is the differ-ence between actual and expected weekly ET. In theUnited States PDSI and CMI values are published monthlyin the US Dcpartmentof Agriculture's Weekly Weather andCrop Bulletin.

According to the Indian Meteorology Department(IMD), the definition of drought is mainly based on rainfalldeficiency of a season, IMD uses two measures: the firstdescribes rainfall conditions, while the second representsdrought severity. Rainfall conditions are defined as fol-lows (based on the average of 70-100 years):

Excess: + 20 per cent or more

Normal: + 19 per cent to -19 per cent

Deficient: -20 per cent to -50 per cent

Scanty: -60 per cent or less

The precipitation is expressed on a weekly and monthlybasis. Drought is described as moderate if the seasonalrainfall deficiency (South-West Monsoon) is 26-50 percent less than normal or severe if the deficiency is greaterthan 50 per cent of normal, respectively.

72Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

A drought-prone area is defined as one in which theprobability for drought in a given year is greater than 20per cent. A chronic drought-prone area is one in whichprobability of drought in any year is greater that 40 percent. A drought year occurs when less than 75 per cent ofthe normal rainfall is received.

The National Institute of Hydrology, India (1989)analysing the 1986-87 drought proposed indices describ-ing rainfall deficits, low flows in streams and declines ingroundwater levels. In terms of runoff volumes, the followingcriteria were used to classify drought conditions:

Per cent departurein runoff volume

50 per cent or above25-50 per cent<25 per cent

Drought Class

SevereModerateNormal

In Thailand, the Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI),developed by Achutuni and others (1982) is used to indi-cate the impact of rainfall conditions on crops. In thePhilippines, the Philippines Atmospheric, Geographicaland Astronomical Service Administration (PAGASA)monitors rainfall in the country and issues warnings ondrought when, within three successive months, less than40 per cent of normal rainfall is recorded.

4. Drought Hazards in the Region

In several member countries of ESCAP, droughtcontinues to be a natural hazard. Its effect is mainly onagricultural production and on the population dependenton agriculture. The effects of drought as reported by thecountries in the region are presented in table 4. Followingthis, detailed available information in respect of somecountries is given.

(a) Australia

Australia is subject to a range of natural hazardsincluding droughts. It has been reported that in recentyears huge expanses of agricultural land have been flooded(an area larger than Thailand was covered in April 1990),bush fires have burned extensive agricultural and timberresources, and droughts have affected most of the easternstates at different times.

Gibbs (1981) broadly discusses drought and its ef-fects in Australia. The 1967 drought in south-east Aus-tralia had resulted in a 36 per cent reduction in the wheatharvest, 60 per cent reduction in oats, 30 per cent reductionin barley and 15 per cent reduction in rice. The droughtcaused a reduction in sheep population of 5 million headand reduced wool production by 10 per cent. It was

estimated that farm income was reduced by $ A 500 millionor 40 per cent. Moreover, as* Gibbs pointed out, thedrought impact was felt b&yond the farm. The smallbusinessmen from whom the farmer bought commoditieswere affected by the farmer's reduced purchasing power aswere larger business enterprises such as manufacturers offarm machinery. The social impact can also be consider-able. Particularly for the farmer with limited resources,farming is a risky enterprise and the impact of droughtdisasters can cause social disruption to families for morethan a generation. Droughts were also reported in 1971-72and 1977-78.

In the case of a major drought disaster, nationaldisaster relief arrangements exist, run by the State andCommonwealth government. Each State meets its owncosts up to a predetermined base—after which the Com-monwealth contributes $A 3 for every $A 1 of Stateexpenditure. Benefits include loans for feedings/restockingand subsidies for transport of livestock. A drought-bondscheme exists whereby a landholder can put aside untaxedprofits, receive a reasonable interest rate on them, andwithdraw them when needed in times of drought. Somelandholders maintain reserves of grain or fodder for droughtfeedings. However, this practice is only marginally eco-nomic. Drought insurance schemes have been discussed,but not implemented. Stock in drought-affected areas maybe sold, retained and hand fed, or moved to areas notaffected by drought (ESCAP-UNEP, 1983).

Wilhite (1986) makes a comparative analysis of thedrought policy in the United States and Australia andmakes several recommendations. He observes that gov-ernment actions in Australia have usually taken the form ofloans and grants to individual citizens, businesses andmunicipalities experiencing the hardship of drought. Itwas also observed that most of the actions have occurred inan environment of crisis management, rather than as aresult of clearly stated policy objectives. He suggests anational drought plan as an efficient mechanism throughwhich different recommendations could be implemented.Australia also has a programme for supporting disastermitigation in developing countries through bilateral de-velopment aid programmes (ADB, 1990).

(b) China

China is a country of vast land and water resourcesand climatic variations. The country has identified fourregions of drought: (i) the middle and downstream basinsof Songhuajiang and Liaohe in the north-east of China; (ii)the alluvial plain of Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe river basins inthe north of China (iii) the north-eastern district of Sichuanprovince; and (iv) the Yunnan-Guizhou plateau and Zhanjiangdistrict in Guangdong province in southern China. In theformer three regions there are about 90 drought days in a

V. Assessment and mitigation of droughts in Asia and the Pacific 73

Table 4. Estimates of damages due to droughts reported by someAsian and Pacific countries (1982-1989)

Country

Australia

China

Fiji

India

Indonesia

Japan

Myanmar

New Zealand

Republic of Korea

year

1982-1989

1982-198319841985198619871988-1989

1987

19821983198419851986198719881989

1982-19851986198719881989

1982-1983198419851986198719881989

1986

19821983198419851986-198719881989

1982-1984

1985

1986-1989

Material damage tofarm lands (ha)

Not significant

6.9 million8.65 million

13 million-

As indicated in thefollowing note.

Not available3.68 million24 00052 080Not available4.59 millionNot availableNot available

7 86524.52435

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

701 074.85

-

-

-

29 000-

-

All farm lands in affected areas

-

200

Total estimated oractual damage cost

-

-

-

Rs 8.3 millionNot availableRs 15.93 millionRs 10.32 millionRs 10.71 millionRs 73.80 millionRs 1.63 million-

-

-

-

-

-

¥28 920 million¥ 13 163 million¥ 8 777 million¥ 486 million¥ 268 million

-

-

-

S NZ 40 million

$ NZ 32 million-

$ NZ 400.00 million$ NZ 377.42 million

-

Won 361 million

-

(Compiled from Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), Water Resources Journal, June issues).

74Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

year on average, and the last region has about 40 droughtdays.

The eastern regions of China are well known for theirproductive areas of grains, cotton and vegetable oils. However,in those regions, due to the impact of the monsoon climate,agricultural production is often affected by drought and/orexcessive rain disasters. The annual precipitation is notuniformly distributed, either over the area or throughoutthe year, and its yearly variation has a large amplitude. Bystatistic estimations from historical writings and literatureconcerning drought situations which occurred in the prov-inces of Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, and Shenxiduring the period since the sixteenth century up to thepresent, in nearly 400 years the number of drought yearswas more than one-half of the total. During the past 30years, in spite of large-scale water conservation workscarried on, the droughts still threaten agricultural produc-tion in those regions. For instance during the periods1959-1961,1971-1972and 1978-1980, successive droughtscaused a severe setback in agriculture production.

Moreover, in 1980 north China suffered from a verysevere drought. The drought was characterized by itspersistence in duration and extension over a large area.The total monthly rainfall observed in July 1980 at Beijingwas reported to be only 31 mm. Many regions of China areaffected by successive droughts, causing severe impactson agricultural production. Tables 5 and 6 (from ChenJiaqi and Shen Zhenrong, 1980) give information relatingto regions of successive drought periods.

In terms of development of water resources, Chinahas made significant progress. It has been reported that:farmland irrigation areas have been enlarged; industrialand urban water supply systems have been developed;navigation waterways have been improved; and the protec-tion of natural environment has been emphasized. By theend of 1985, more than 80 000 reservoirs, large, mediumand small, had been built with a total storage capacity of430 billion cubic metres; the mechanical and electricalpower for irrigation and drainage reached 80 millionhorsepower. Over 5 000 irrigation areas, which make uphalf of the total cultivated land, supply two-thirds of thefood grain for the whole country. Three-quarters of lowly ingland, two-thirds of salinized land in the north and one hallof lowyielding land in the south have been improved. In1985, the total water supply for industry and agriculturetopped 480 billion m3 (United Nations, 1987). All thesemeasures helped in drought alleviation,

(c) Fiji

Fiji consists of a group of 332 islands spread over avast area of the South Pacific, The agricultural sectorplays an important role in the economy, contributing about

20 per cent of GDP, 50 per cent of total employment andnearly 75 per cent of total export earnings (ADB, 1989).

Fiji, particularly the Western and Northern divisionsand the outer islands, was severely affected by droughtduring 1987. A survey was made to assess the availabilityof food; assess the effect of drought on the nutritionalstatus of the people; and to ascertain the necessary reha-bilitation programmes to improve the situation {WaterResources Journal, June 1988).

The drought of nearly a year in 1987 had drasticallyaffected the overall situation of the Western division,though the intensity of the drought varied from place toplace. In many areas, most of the green vegetables and rootcrops had been destroyed by the drought. Reserves ofcrops that were left were running low, pushing the peopleto rely more on rice, flour and tinned foods. In somevillages and settlements which were located in the interiorhills, people were totally dependent on shops to purchasefood items because the land was so dry that nothing couldbe grown. Even fruit trees of some fruit varieties, whichbore much fruit in normal times, were drying out or bear-ing vary little.

In the cane farming belt, cane production in 1987 hadbeen very much affected by the drought. Most of thepeople claimed that their cane harvest had been reduced byhalf because the cane could not mature and dried up. Thataffected not only the cane farmers but the cane cutters(labourers) as well. Under normal circumstances, canefarmers in low-lying areas grow enough rice for them-selves. But with prolonged drought, they had to consumethe seed they kept for planting. Similarly with legumes,the farmers were consuming the stock they kept for plant-ing-

With regard to livestock (chickens, goats, cows andpigs), more animals were dying as there was no pasture orfeed for them. In most of the households the number ofchickens and goats had decreased greatly and in somecases were completely depleted. They were sold to keepthe family going. In addition, raising chickens had becomeexpensive because the price of the chicken feed had in-creased three-fold.

The health status of the people on the western sidehad deteriorated. The key reason was that they were notreceiving the regular diet they had been accustomed tobefore the drought. There was an increase in the number ofcases of diarrhoea, common cold and cough cases re-ported. People were obtaining water from sources otherthan the usual ones. The villagers stated that the water theycurrently obtained from the community piped system tasteddifferently and most of the children looked dull, weak andsickly, and sometimes had diarrhoea. The health centrereported that there was an increase in anaemia in pregnantmothers due to lack of green vegetables.

V. Assessment and mitigation of droughts in Asia and the Pacific 75

Table 5. Successive drought periods in some regions of China

Region

1. The drought regions

Songhua-Liao river

Hang-Huai-Hai rivers

North-east region of Sichuan province

Yun -Gui -Zhanjiang

2. The region of Huang-Hal-Huai river

The upper and middle stream

region of Huai river

The middle stream region of

Huai river

The middle stream region of

Huang river

The south river system region of

Hai river

The north river system region of

Hai river

Occurrence of successivedrought year periods(per cent)

Drought lasted2-3 years

4

15

13

9

10

11

9

12

16

Drought tasted4 or more years

4

3

2

3

6

4

8

6

5

Frequency occurrenceof single drought years(per cent)

17

7

10

13

9

10

8

7

4

Table 6. Duration of successive drought periods in some regions of China

Region

The drought region of

Songhua-Liao river

The drought region of

Huang-Huai-Hai rivers

The drought region of the north-east

region of Sichuan province

The drought region of

Yun-Gui-Zhanjiang

The upper and middle stream region

of Huai river

The middle and downstream region of

Huai river

The middle stream region of

Huang river

Successive drought period (years)

Longest

8

11

7

10

11

12

24

Average

4.9

6.3

5.4

4.9

5.8

6.1

7.2

Average return periods (years)

31

27

31

31

27

27

35.5

76Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

Most of the areas surveyed did not have water readilyavailable and depended on emergency water supplies.They received about two to three drums of water for twoweeks, insufficient for all household needs. Some peoplehad dug wells in the dry river beds to wash clothes andsome travelled to distant places for water. Some did notreceive emergency water owing to the remoteness of theirdwellings and therefore borrowed water from others. Overall,the drought created extreme problems to the populationand huge economic loss.

(d) India

Drought has been a recurring feature of Indian agri-culture. While practically all the areas have suffered croplosses and distress on account of drought at some time orother, some clearly identifiable areas have been subjectedto frequent droughts. The subsistence economy in thoseareas is unable to withstand particularly severe drought,and the distress assumes the characteristics of a scarcitybefore long. Nearly 19 per cent of the total land of thecountry is frequently affected by lack of rains. In otherwords, it is estimated that about 33 per cent of the cultivablearea of the country is drought-prone. The Deccan Plateaualone constitutes 50 per cent of the drought-prone area.About 12 per cent of the total population live in thedrought-prone areas. The number of small and marginalfarmers and agricultural labourers in the drought-proneareas is estimated to be 7 million households, constitutingthe poorest segments of the rural population.

(i) Major droughts since 1875 A.D.

During the past 120 years recorded information sug-gests occurrence of seven severe droughts in seven yearswhich affected large parts of the country (see table 7).

Table 7. Major drought occurrences in India

Year ofdrought

1877

1899

1918

1965

1972

1979

1987

Country's areaaffected,per cent

64

6571

41

47

45

50

Departure of monsoon rainfallfrom normal, per cent

Over India

-32

-28

-26

-17

-25-21

-18

Over drought region

-49

-36

-35

-38

-45

Concerning the area affected, the 1987 droughtwas the fourth in severity following those of 1918, 1899and 1877. It was the second worst of this century.

As for intensity of drought, that of 1987 rankssecond in this century. The same year severe floods werealso experienced in Bihar and parts of West Bengal. Thoughthis is another form of calamity, in the particular situationit compensated for some of the deficiency in rainfall of thewhole country.

In 1987,mostoftheaffectedareas(exceptOrissaand Karnataka) were normally drought-prone, whereas in1972, drought occurred over the Bihar Plains, Sub-HimalayanWest Bengal and those parts of Maharashatra, which arenot used to such conditions.

Based on these criteria, in terms of severity, theranking of droughts in the twentieth century so far is: 1918ranks first, 1972 and 1987 may be bracketed to take secondplace.

(ii) Frequency of Occurrence

Jaiswal and Kolte (1981) quoted in Pasrija (1990)have worked out periodicity of drought in different mete-orological sub-divisions, and the results are summarized intable 8.

Table 8. Periodicity of droughts in India

The following inferences (for the period 1875 to1987) are apparent:

Meteorological Sub-Division

Assam

West Madhya Pradesh

Konkan

Coastal Andhra Pradesh

Maharashtra

Kerala

Bihar

Orissa

South Interior Mysore

Eastern Uttar Pradesh

Vidarbha

Gujarat

Eastern Rajasthan

Western Uttar Pradesh

Tamil Nadu

Jammu and Kashmir

Rayalaseema

Telangana

Western Rajasthan

Recurrence of the periodof deficient rainfall(75% of the normal or less)

Very rare, once in 15 years

Once in 5 years

Once in 5 years

Once in 5 years

Once in 5 years

Once in 5 years

Once in 5 years

Once in 5 years

Once in 4 years

Once in 4 years

Once in 4 years

Once in 4 years

Once in 4 years

Once in 4 years

Once in 3 years

Once in 3 years

Once in 2.5 years

Once in 2.5 years

Once in 2.5 years

V, Assessment and mitigation of droughts in Asia and the Pacific 77

(iii) Forecasting and warning

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has anetwork of weather stations and offices spread out all overthe country to meet the requirements of weather forecastsand reports.

(iv) Mitigation measures for drought

The Government has taken a number of long-termmeasures for reducing the impact of droughts, as indicatedbelow.

(a) Irrigation: Increasing the area under irrigation.Compared to gross irrigated area of only 22.6 million ha jnthe country in 1950-1951, the amount has currently reached62,8 million ha.

(b) Drought-Prone Area Programme (DPAP): Thecore components of this programme are soil and waterconservation, water resources development, afforestationand pasture development.

(c) Desert Development Programme (DDP): Theobjectives of the programme include controlling the processof desertification, mitigating the effect of drought in desertareas, restoration of ecological balance in affected areasand raising the productivity of land, water, livestock andhuman resources in those areas. The objectives are soughtto the achieved, through activities such as afforestation,with special emphasis on sand-dune stabilization, shelterbelt plantations, grass-land development, soil and moistureconservation and water resources development.

(d) National Watershed Development Programmefor Rainfed Agriculture (NWDPRA): the NWDPRA pro-gramme addresses the unirrigated arable land in the country.The main components of the scheme are: land and mois-ture management practices for introduction of improvedcropping systems; dryland horticulture; supply of seedlingsand grass seeds; conducting adaptive trials; supply ofimproved tools and equipment; and preparation of scien-tific field manuals.

(e) Comprehensive Crop Insurance Scheme (CCIS):A comprehensive crop insurance scheme was introducedin 1985. The objectives of the scheme are to: (i) provide ameasures of financial support to the farmers in the event ofcrop failure as a result of drought, flood etc.; (ii) restore thecredit eligibility of farmers; and (iii) support and stimulateproduction of cereals, pulses and oil seeds.

(v) Disaster preparedness measures

(a) Establishment of a food distribution network;

(b) Employment generation;

(c) Extension of social security schemes to drought

The following measures were reported to have beentaken:

areas;

(d) Establishment of health care network;

(e) Establishment of dairy co-operatives and veteri-nary care centres;

(f) Drinking water facilities; and

(g) Provision of credit.

(vi) Administrative Arrangements

The basic responsibility for undertaking the reliefand rescue operations is vested in the State Governmentconcerned. However, the Government of India is inti-mately involved at every stage in providing financial,technical and material support. In the Union Government,the Department of Agriculture and Co-operation is thenodal Department. The Central Relief Commissioner main-tains a close liaison in the concerned Central Departments/agencies as well as the State Gevernments' representativesin co-ordinating the relief measures.

(a) A standing Cabinet Committee on Natural Ca-lamities (CCNC) under the chairmanship of the PrimeMinister exists, which gives direction to undertake short-term and long-term measures to mitigate the impact ofnatural disasters.

(b) At the national level, the National Level CrisisManagement Committee (CMC) under the chairmanshipof the Cabinet Secretary implements the policy directivesof the CCNC.

(c) The Crisis Management Group (CMG) underthe chairmanship of Central Relief Commissioner andAdditional Secretary in the Ministry of Agriculture meetsregularly in the wake of natural calamities to review thesituation and take necessary action to assist the affectedStates in carrying out the relief operations promptly. CMGconsists of representatives from all concerned CentralMinistries besides the Resident Commissions of the af-fected states.

(vii) 1987 Drought

The country faced unprecedented drought in 1987when the summer monsoon failed in most of the States. Asa result the rainfall was considerably below the normal.The estimated rainfall deficiencies are given in table 9.

78Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

Table 9. Rainfall deficiencies in India during the1987 drought (From Sinha, 1989)

Region

North Kamataka

Eastern Madhya Pradesh

Kerala

Gujarat

Eastern Rajastan

Western U.P., Himachal Pradesh

Punjab

Haryana, Chandigarh,

Delhi, Western Rajasthan

Saurashtra, Kutch

Estimated rainfall deficiency

2 per cent

23 per cent

31 per cent

42 per cent

50 per cent

51 per cent

58 per cent

67 per cent

74 per cent

Such extensive and intense rainfall deficiencies re-sulted in drought conditions in the rural areas, whichsuffered from depleted irrigation and drinking water sup-plies. To overcome the crises, emphasis was laid onaccelerated exploitation of ground water resources, asoutlined below (From Sinha, 1989).

(a) Accelerated Rural Water Supply Programme andMinimum Needs Programme

(b) Drought Assistance for purchase of Rigs andInstallation of Wells

(c) Long-term Measures for Augmentation of GroundWater Recharge

The 1987 drought focused not only on the need forproviding people with access to food, but also for maintainingtheir quality of life. The central theme of relief today is tomeet the food and nutritional needs of all sections ofsociety in their own communities, keeping in view theirnormal energy requirements, supply of drinking water,providing adequate health care and fodder for the cattle.This objective emphasizes "living with droughts", andaims to reduce the necessity for migration to other areas.

(e) Philippines

The Philippines also has its share of droughts. Threemajor drought events were experienced in the Philippinesduring the past decade: in 1982-1983,1986-1987 and mostrecently in 1989-1990. Descriptions of the rainfall varia-tion in the Philippines will be presented separately for eachdrought event. It is stated that all these droughts are relatedto what is referred to as the El Nino phenomenon (Jose,1990).

El Niflo can be considered as an oceanographic/meteorological phenomenon that develops in the Pacific,

mostly off Peru and is associated with extreme climaticvariability characterized by devastating rains, winds, droughtand other events that wreck havoc on the economy andsociety in the global and local scale. During a severe ElNifio, sea surface temperatures are measurably higher thannormal over a large expense of the equatorial Pacificwhich can prevail for more than a year. Theories supportedby recent observations indicated that the El Nifio in thecentral and eastern equatorial Pacific is linked to thedrought occurrences in the western equatorial Pacific regionssuch as Indonesia, portions of Australia and the Philippines.

The 1982-1983 drought event in the Philippines wasconsidered as the most severe in the last two decades.Below normal rainfall was observed even at the early partof 1982 in Visayas and Mindanao. This condition becomemore pronounced and extended over central southern Luzonduring the second semester rain period. The most severelyaffected areas received less than 10 per cent of normalrainfall found in western Central Luzon and SouthernTagalog provinces, over northern portion of Visayas, BoholIsland and western Mindanao. Based on 40 years data(1951-1990), total rainfall for October 1982 to March 1983over central and eastern Visayas and northeastern Mindanaowas the driest for that season. In April to September 1983,there was also a failure in the performance of the rainsassociated with the southwest monsoon season. This hadcaused drought conditions in the areas which were mainlyspared from the rainfall deficiencies during the precedingseason.

Seasonal rainfall amounts of less than 80 per cent ofnormal values were experienced in western Luzon, theBicol region, Samar, southern Visayas, western Mindanaoand Davao provinces. Most severely affected areas werethe Bicol region, southern Negros and Cebu Islands andwestern Mindanao.

Assessment of the rainfall situation during the lastquarter of 1989 indicated that a large portion of the Philip-pines had rainfall which was below the normal. In Octo-ber, when the north-east monsoon season normally starts,below average rainfall conditions were already noted overthe Bicol region, western Visayas and southern Mindanao.However, the remaining greater part of the country wasstill near normal to above normal. It was during thesucceeding month of November that a larger portion of thePhilippines, particularly the western sections includingnorthern Luzon, experienced below normal rainfall condi-tions. In December, the rainfall situation further deterio-rated. A large portion of Luzon, Visayas and south-western Mindanao experienced rainfall amounts whichwere less than 40 per cent of the average values.

V. Assessment and mitigation of droughts in Asia and the Pacific 79

Major economic losses due to drought in many partswere experienced in the agricultural sector, particularlylosses to coconut and sugarcane production. It was re-ported by the Department of Agriculture that rice growingareas affected by drought were 181 560 hectares, of which72 320 hectares (40 per cent) were damaged. Estimatedproduction losses were 313 490 metric tons valued at216.95 million pesos. For the corn crop, the area affectedwas estimated at 102 000 hectares, of which 58 760 hectares(57 per cent) were damagetT The estimated productionloss was 185 190 metric tons valued at 235.05 millionpesos. For water supply, it was reported that a 10 per centcut-back in water production was maintained by the Met-ropolitan Water and Sewerage System. HydroelectricPower generation was also affected.

(f) Sri Lanka

Floods, cyclones, droughts and landslides are somecommon natural disasters that affect Sir Lanka. The coun-try bas experienced droughts of varying durations andimpacts. It has been observed that droughts occur almostevery year in 13 administrative districts in the northern andeastern parts of the country. Sri Lanka being an agriculturalcountry, crop failure affects the national paddy productionas well as the livelihood of the people. It has also beenreported that droughts caused scarcity of drinking waterand consequent incidence of diseases.

The number of families affected by drought in thepast has been indicated as follows.

Year

1970

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

No. of families

201 000

64 000

26 417

75 000

100 000

205 000

The major drought protection scheme which theGovernment has envisaged is the diversion of the largestriver in the country, the Mahaweli Ganga, to the dry zoneto irrigate six drought-prone districts.

Tennakoon (1986) presented a detailed analysis ofthe drought hazard and rural development issues in SriLanka. He lists numerous adjustments to drought at-tempted by the farmers. This may be considered in fourcategories which need not necessarily be mutually exclu-sive. First, are adjustments which affect the basic causesof hazards. These include appeasing of supernatural pow-ers by chanting religious scriptures and praying in smallgroups as well as individually, to wish away the naturalhazards (including drought) conceptualized as agents of

supernatural powers. The second category of adjustmentsto drought are those which modify the hazard effects, suchas irrigation, water management, shifting cultivation as aform of crop insurance, and supplementing of income fromirrigated farming. Third is a set of adjustments whichmodify the loss potential of man and his work: timelyplanting and sowing of a mixture of crops, some drought-resistant and others more moisture-tolerant; moisture con-servation with minimum tillage; cultivation of crops ofshort growing periods; and the practice of cultivating partof the fields. Finally, adjustments in the form of sharingand suffering losses include the use of food rations, reliefaid, borrowing, reduced consumption expenditure, casualearnings as daily paid workers, mortgage and sale ofbelongings, collection of bush food etc. In addition heoutlines the role of the different governmental agencies inmitigating drought hazards.

(g) Vanuatu

Vanuatu suffers periodic droughts, and their effectscan be expected to increase as the population grows anddevelopment puts greater pressure on existing water re-sources. Major droughts were experienced in 1957-1958,1977-1978 and 1982-1983. The effects of a drought in1986-1987 were masked by the impact of Cyclone Uma.

(h) Samoa

Samoa also has periodic droughts. The western partof Upolu Island and Savaii Island are the most vulnerable.In 1983, the worst drought on record affected Apia andnorth-western Samoa in general. There were widespreadwater shortages in the higher elevations of Apia and thewest coast supply areas. Crops were damaged in 1988because of drought.

(i) Thailand, Pakistan and Indonesia

Apart from the countries mentioned above, droughtsituations of varying degrees occur in several of the re-maining countries in the ESCAP region. For example inThailand, it is estimated that out of the total 17.0 million haof arable land, 81.6 per cent or 13.8 million ha is rainfed.The north-eastern region of the country is most importantto rainfed agriculture as it contains one third of total landarea and one third of the population of the country. Fre-quent drought conditions are reported form this region.Short term droughts, mainly affecting agricultural produc-tion, are reported from other parts of the country from timeto time. Pakistan has about 4.7 million ha of area underrainfed agriculture subjected to drought conditions (ADB,1989). It has been reported that Punjab and Sind provincesin the country have experienced drought conditions affect-ing 31 500 sq km in Punjab and 27 800 sq km in Sind.

80Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

Government provided relief measures such as cash grants,exemption from land revenues and food supplies. InIndonesia, though severe drought has not been reported,food crop failures due to uncertain weather conditionshave been reported from the Nusa Tenggara Timur region(ESCAP, 1983).

C. Forecasting droughts

1. General

Attempts to forecast droughts much in advance oftheir occurrence do not appear to be fully successful butneed to be continued. A UNESCO-WMO publication(1985) outlines eight forecasting methods. These arebased upon a combination of statistical, physical and syn-optic methods and are listed as (i) analogue methods; (ii)linear regression methods; (iii) teleconnections; (iv) statisticaland kinematic methods; (v) contingency tables; (vi) use ofair-sea interactions; (vii) statistical time series forecasts;and (viii) extrapolation in time using cyclicities. Theefficacy of these methods in advance forecasting is notfully established. However, it appears that methods whichpredict the occurrence of the drought at a very early stageand forecast its effect on crop production seem to be fairlysuccessful.

2. Organizational setups in the region

From the report of the seminar on "Agro-ClimaticModels for the Assessment of Drought-related Food Shortagesin South and South-East Asia" (Bangkok, January 1984),the following information was furnished by some countriesof the region.

In Bangladesh, since 1980 the Food Planning andMonitoring Unit (FPMU) has attempted to develop cropassessment models based on weather parameters. In India,drought is monitored every week by an Aridity Indexdistribution. Its intensity and spread are examined and aqualitative assessment of drought impact on yield is made.In Indonesia, an assessment of impact of climate on agri-culture is produced by the Climate Impact AssessmentService. Several types of indices and maps are used. Theyinclude the Generalized Moisture Index (GMI), the YieldMoisture Index (YMI) and YMI for specific crops such asmaize, soybean and groundnuts. Malaysia monitors paddyand estimates areas affected by droughts/shortage of irri-gation water through its Drainage and Irrigation Depart-ment. The Nepal Meteorological Service (NMS) and theAgriculture Statistics Division (ASD) have started a jointprogramme to monitor the crop situation in Nepal. InPakistan the yields of crops are determined by the Agricul-ture Department using both subjective and objective methods.

The Philippines Atmospheric, Geophysical and AstronomicalService Administration (PAGASA) and the Bureau ofAgriculture Economics (BAEcon) jointly came up with amodel for monthly agro-climatic crop assessment and quarterlyyield and area assessments based on forecasting models.The forecasting models make use of traditional regressiontechniques. In Sri Lanka, the Department of Meteorologyhas the capacity to utilize weather satellite information forassessing the impact of predictable drought trends ondomestic food production. In Thailand the yield of paddyis estimated by a yield forecasting model which is a func-tion of the amount of rainfall. The Office of AgriculturalEconomics (OAE) and the Department of AgriculturalExtension (DAE) are involved.

An Early Drought Warning System identifies drought,problems, determines the areal extent and magnitude ofpotential drought impacts and provides an early warningalert. This enables the disaster manager to develop strate-gies and take actions to mitigate potential impacts such asfood shortage which lead to malnutrition, starvation, popu-lation migration and other socio-economic disruptions. ANational Early Warning System can reliably do the follow-ing:

(a) Continuously monitor, assess and report weatherimpacts on the agricultural sector, identifying potentialweather-related problems.

(b) Assess significant crop production losses due todrought approximately 30-60 days before crop harvestingbegins; this represents a 3-6 month early warning/predic-tion of severe economic losses and/or potential food short-age conditions.

(c) Provide indications at harvest of potential "bumper"crops due to favourable growing season weather; thishelps determine import/export requirements.

(d) Track and report weather impacts in areas whereon-going disaster relief operations are in effect.

3. UN/ESCAP Project on Agro-Climatic Assessment

The UN/ESCAP provided logistical support to anAgro-Climatic Assessment Project developed to providereliable early warning for disaster relief, preparedness, andfood security in South and Southeast Asia. The pro-gramme was conducted through the joint efforts of theNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)and the Cooperation Institute of Applied Meteorology (CI AM),sponsored by the Agency for International development,Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (AID/OFDA).

This Agro-Climatic Assessment Project, began withPhase I in 1984, has the long-term objective of establishinga crop monitoring tool to be used on a real-time basis byfood security decision makers in each country. Technol-

V. Assessment and mitigation of droughts in Asia and the Pacific 81

ogy transfer during Phase I focused on the utilization ofcumulative rainfall indices and statistical climate cropyield models to : monitor drought; assess the impact oncrop production; and produce and disseminate an opera-tional Crop Assessment Early Warning Bulletin withineach participating country. The agencies in the programmegeneraly included the national Meteorological Depart-ment, the Ministry of Agriculture, and the agency respon-sible for national food security. Bangladesh, India, Indo-nesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka,and Thailand participated. Many of these countries estab-lished Drought Early Warning Units within their govern-ment framework which still continue to produce and dis-seminate Crop Assessment Bulletins. Users report thatthis rainfall analysis technology proved especially effec-tive during the severe drought of 1987.

The Phase II project utilized NOAA polar orbitingsatellite imagery and vegetative index analysis to enhancethe Phase I analysis. Although relatively coarse in resolution,the data enable a continuous real-time analysis of thephenology of vegetation, provided that clouds can be removedby selection of the cloud free areas of a sequence ofsuperimposed images. This low cost technology, devel-oped and refined by the Climate Applications Branch(CAB) of NOAA and the Cooperative Institute for AppliedMeteorology (CIAM) for use on personal computers, wastested extensively in the Sahelian countries of Africa. Thedata can be received twice daily by any country with theappropriate antennae and data reception and analysis sys-tem. Two Phase II activities have been completed. ANational Workshop Mission was conducted in each countryat the outset to: introduce the new technology; liaisedirectly with each participating agency; help clarify theinter-agency relationship; facilitate the selection of train-ees; and assess computer software and hardware needs. ARegional Training Workshop for 16 trainees from fourcountries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand)was held at the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) inBangkok for four weeks in June and July 1989. A follow-up in-country technical training mission is currently beingconducted to assure that the technology is in place andoperational. Continuation of this project under Phase III isunder consideration (Johnson and others, 1989).

D. Planning for mitigation of droughts

1. General

Preparation for mitigating the effects of droughtscould be broadly considered under two groups, viz., (i)steps to be taken in anticipation of droughts, i.e. whendroughts are not actually in progress, and (ii) steps to betaken when a drought has actually occurred. By virtue ofthe nature of droughts, planning and implementation of

drought mitigation has to be at the initiative of nationalagencies. Participation of non-government organizationsfor some specific activities could be considered. A rangeof administrative and technical measures are needed indealing with droughts either before they occur or whenthey are in progress. The approach adopted could changeaccording to whether or not the drought actually occurs.

2. Measures for mitigation of drought hazards

The various aspects of the programmes related to thedrought prone areas could be broadly outlined under: (i)meteorological aspects; (ii) agricultural aspects; (iii) ani-mal husbandry; (iv) forestry aspects; (v) water resourcesdevelopment and management; and (iv) institutional ar-rangements.

(a) Meteorological aspects

The meteorological aspects consist of collection andanalysis of meteorological data including long term analysisof rainfall for drought forecasting. Meteorological aspectsalso include developing a suitable data base for decisionmaking on issues related to drought and also delineation ofdrought-prone areas. In some situations meteorologicalaspects could also include crop climate monitoring usingsatellite data and other related activities.

(b) Agricultural aspects

Agricultural aspects relating to drought include bothresearch support as well as field implementation. In theESCAP region as the countries affected by drought havelarge populations dependent on agriculture, the role of theagricultural department becomes very significant. Re-search aspects to be taken up through the research organizationsinclude development of drought-resistant crop varieties,developing cropping systems suitable to the drought-proneareas etc.

Land and water management practices are vital forany drought-prone area. These practices include measureslike bunding and terracing, construction of small ponds forrunoff storage and recycling etc. Practices for efficientutilization of the rainfall are important. Appropriatemeasures for a region are to be developed and field imple-mentation is generally through the soil conservation/landdepartment.

Storage of food supplies and warehousing in somecountries are handled by the agricultural department.

(c) Animal husbandry

In drought-prone areas livestock management is verycritical. Initial selection and introduction of animal spe-

82Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

cies adaptable to drought are important. During drought,provision of fodder and drinking water to the cattle is vital.In any plan for drought management, the needs of thelivestock should be considered.

(d) Forestry aspects

Forestry aspects in the drought-prone areas shouldbe included in the national forest policy. Forestry aspectsinclude planting of fuel and fodder trees, protection ofcatchments etc.

(e) Water resources development and management

Water is the key factor in any drought managementprogramme both before and during the drought. Developmentof surface water resources and establishment of largeirrigation systems definitely help the drought-prone areas.

Major irrigation systems such as the Indus system inPakistan, the Ganges in India, Mahaweli in Sri Lanka etc.have been designed to convey water over long distances totraditionally drought-prone areas. They withstood the testof time with respect to drought alleviation. Establishmentof such systems in future will need investigations as wellas financial resources. Environmental considerations alsoneed be taken into account.

For drought-prone areas provision of irrigation facilitiesfrom a surface water source even if it involves inter-basinwater transfer needs to be seriously investigated. In veryserve drought situations, the irrigation systems also couldbe badly affected. However, operation of the irrigationsystem over a long period of lime helps in improving thegroundwater resources of the region and improves thevegetative growth all around, thus withstanding the droughtsituation.

Ground water resources are undoubtedly critical duringdrought periods. In drought-prone areas, groundwaterresources need to be developed and conserved. Onlyscattered attention appears to have been given to thisaspect. Groundwater recharge needs to be intensifiedwherever possible. Recharge methods like percolationtanks, recharge shafts and water spreading need to beunderstood. Generally land management practices de-signed for soil and water conservation help in groundwater recharge. Irrigation systems could also be used forgroundwater recharge. The concept of "GroundwatcrSanctuaries" is worth examining. Herein large areas areearmarked for grounwater recharge and conservation. Indrought-prone areas it is desirable to conserve the groundwaterresources. If this could be achieved in such areas, groundwaterresources could be used in time of drought at least forproviding some drinking water supplies.

(f) Institutional arrangements

While institutional arrangements are needed for de-velopment activities during the non-drought period, theirfunctioning is critical during any drought. During thedrought a wide variety of functional approaches have to beenvisaged. These could include sale of food at fair prices,effective control of migration, protection of labour rights,providing credit, etc. International co-operation is anotheraspect which needs to be considered.

A range of suggested activities and institutions aregiven in table 10. The institutional setups however, varyfrom country to country in the region. The Departmentalactivities proposed are purely suggestive, as the frame-work and responsibilities allocated could differ from countryto country.

£. Droughts and desertification

Desertification and its effects are broadly given bythe definition of desertification: "the diminution or thedestruction of the biological potential of the land, whichcan lead ultimately to desert-like conditions. It is an aspectof the widespread deterioration of ecosystems, and hasdiminished the biological potential, i.e. plant and animalproduction, for multiple purposes at a time when produc-tivity is needed to support growing populations in quest ofdevelopment" (UN/ESCAP, 1987).

To elaborate the definition, desertification is theresult of rapid degradation of the soil due to aridity,overgrazing, overcropping, waterlogging and salinity andlarge-scale deforestation. In terms of the above, it can bestated that desertification in Asia and the Pacific is extensivein the rainfed crop lands, irrigated lands, rangelands, for-ests and woodlands.

Measures to combat the physical and biological processof desertification could be grouped under the followingtitles.

(1) Development and management of water resources;

(2) Rehabilitation of degraded rangelands and im-provement in livestock production;

(3) Conservation of soil and water in rainfed croplands;

(4) Combating waterlogging and salinization in irri-gated lands;

(5) Restoration of the vegetation cover; and

(6) Conservation of flora and fauna.

V. Assessment and mitigation of droughts in Asia and the Pacific 83

Table 10. Suggested institutional arrangements formitigation of droughts

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

Possible Department

Agriculture,Agriculture Research

Animal Husbandry

Forestry

Food Supply and Storage

Groundwater Division

Legal

Meteorology

Public Health and Water

Supply

Social Services,

Health and Financial

Institutions

Transport

Water Resources

i )

ii)

iii)

iv)

v)

vi)

i)

ii)

iii)

iv)

i )

ii)

i)

")

i)

ii)

i)

ii)

iii)

i v )

i)

")

iii)

iv)

i)

i i )

iii)

iv)

>)

ii)

iii)

iv)

i)

ii)

i)

ii)

iii)

Suggested Activities

Development of drought

resistant crop varieties

Cropping systems

Land and water managementpractices

Watershed management,

runoff storage and recycling

Evaporation reduction

Agricultural inputs

Selection of animal species

Developing suitable

livestock production systems

Fodder development and

management

Animal health

Fuel and fodder tree plantations

Protection of catchments

Food security

Storage

Groundwater monitoring and

utilization

Groundwater recharge

Required legislative measures

Declaration of drought

Legal support to other agencies

International co-operation

Analysis of meteorological data

Drought forecasting

Demarcation of drought-proneareas

Developing information for

decision making

Drinking water supply

Well drilling

Waste water recycling

Water use restrictions

Crop insurance

Health services

Credit facilities

Prevention of migration

Transport of drinking water

Transport of fodder

Irrigation projects

Interbasin water transfer

Water resources development

ESCAP was instrumental in establishing a RegionalNetwork of Research and Training Centres on DesertificationControl in Asia and the Pacific in 1987, with a view to pooland share national research, development and trainingexperiencies among the countries of the region. It can bestated that prolonged drought conditions also contribute todesertification. The technical measures designed to com-bat desertification do also help in the mitigation of droughtsin a region.

1.

3.

4.

6.

F. Conclusions and recommendations

Droughts considered as extreme hydrologic eventscausing severe water shortages, continue to be anatural hazard in many countries around theworld. Their occurrence is not as sudden assome other natural hazards, but in some situa-tions their affects can be equally devastating.

The ability of a region to withstand the effects ofdrought will depend upon the socio-economicconditions. The effects of droughts seem to besignificant on populations which are largely de-pendent upon agriculture.

The occurrence of droughts does not appear tofollow a set frequency in any region, and theforecasting of drought occurrences seems to bedifficult. However, procedures using agroclimaticinformation and remote sensing data from satallitesoffer scope for detecting the occurrence of thedroughts very early, thus enabling some correc-tive procedures to be initiated.

A range of technical and administrative meas-ures, effectively implemented, could counteractthe adverse effects of drought to a large extent.The proposed measures need to be considered intwo phases, one before the drought has occurredand the second when the drought has occurredand is in progress.

Technical measures centre around water, in termsof water resources development and manage-ment. Development and management ofgroundwater resources in drought-prone areas isimportant. Human requirements as well as thelivestock requirement seem to be equally important.

In planning for drought mitigation programmes,an important aspect appears to be to preventmigration of people from the drought-affectedareas. Minimum supplies of food, fodder andwater need to be ensured. The farming commu-nity needs to be assured that as the drought

84Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

conditions disappear, necessary inputs for theagricultural operations will be available to them.

7. The approach to reduce the unfavourable impactof droughts should form a part of the overalldevelopment plans for the region. This shouldinclude long term planning for the developmentof natural and human resources and provision ofservices.

8. In each country, it is desirable to delineate thedrought-prone areas. It is also necessary to setup a monitoring mechanism to serve as an earlywarning system for the droughts.

9. The subject of drought is of relevance to severaltechnical and professional groups including ag-riculturists, engineers, climatologists, socialscientists, animal scientists, foresters andeconomists. Information on drought needs to becollected on a continuous basis so that a countryis better prepared for future occurrences basedupon previous experiences.

10. Institutional arrangements seem to be vital inany drought management programme. Co-ordi-nation and co-operation between the agenciesinvolved appear to be the crucial.

References

Achutuni, V.R., L.T. Steyaert and CM. Sakamoto, 1982,Agroclimatic Assessment Methods for Drought/FoodStorages in South and Southeast Asia-Test andEvaluation, Final Report to US AID/OFD A by NO A A/AISC/CIAD. Models Branch and the AtmosphericScience Department. Columbia, University of Mis-souri.

Asian Development Bank, 1989. Rainfed Agriculture inAsia and the Pacific. Manila.

Central Ground Water Board, Government of India, 1989.Inter-Regional Symposium on Ground Water Re-sources Management in Drought-Prone Area. NewDelhi.

Chen Jiaqi and Shen Zhenrong, 1980. Analysis of DroughtOccurrence and Long-Term Variation of Annual StreamFlow in Eastern Regions of China, (In) Proceedingsof the Technical Conference of Climate-Asia andWestern Pacific. Geneva, WMO No. 578, WorldMeteorological Organization.

ESCAP-UNDP, 1983. Problems and Prospects ofDesertification Control in the ESCAP Region, Pro-ceedings of the Region Technical Workshop to Con-sider Implementation of the Plan of Action to Com-bat Desertification, Jodhpur, India, 20-23 October1981. Bangkok, Thailand.

Johnson, G.E., V.R. Achutani and J.B. Orsini, 1989. TheUse of NOAA/AVHRR Data as a Tool for Opera-tional Agroclimatic Assessment in Asia. Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia, Proceedings of the Tenth Asian Confer-ence on Remote Sensing.

Jose, A.M., 1990. EL Nino Related Drought Events in thePhilippines During the Past Decade. Paper presentedat the 1990 Philippines Water Congress and Exhibi-tions held in Baguio Convention Center, Philippines.

National Institute of Hydrology, 1989. Hydrological As-pects of Drought in 1986-1987, Final Report. Roorkee,India.

Pasrija, V.I., 1990. Country Paper on Natural DisastersManagement in India. Paper presented at RegionalSeminar on Disaster Mitigation. Bangkok, AsianInstitute of Technology.

Sinha, B.P.C., 1989. Ground Water in Drought: Reviewof Indian Scene. (In) Proceedings of Inter RegionalSymposium on Ground Water Resources Manage-ment in Drought-Prone Areas. New Delhi, CentralGround Water Board.

Solanes, M.R., 1986. Legislative Approaches to DroughtManagement. Natural Resources Forum, UnitedNations, New York,

Tennakoon, M.U.A., 1986. Drought Hazard and RuralDevelopment. Colombo, Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

UNESCO-WMO, 1985. Hydrological Aspects of Droughts:Studies and Reports in Hydrology, No. 39.

United Nations. ESCAP, 1983-1990. Water ResourcesJournal, June Issues. Bangkok, United Nations.

United Nations., 1987. Water Resources Development inAsia and the Pacific, Some issues and concerns.Water Resources Series No. 62. Bangkok, Economicand Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.

United Nations. ESCAP, 1987. Desertification in Asia andthe Pacific. A Regional Review and Assessment.

Wilhite, D.A. and M.H. Glantz, 1985. Understanding theDrought Phenomenon: The role of definitions. WaterInternational, 10:111-120.

Wilhite, D.A., 1986. Drought policy in the U.S. andAustralia : A Comparative Analysis, Water Re-sources Bulletin, 22:3:425-437

Yevjevich, V., 1967. An objective Approach to Defini-tions and Investigations of Continental HydrologicDroughts, Hydrology Paper No. 23, Colorado StateUniversity.

VI. Characteristics of storm surges, with focus on Japan 85

VI. CHARACTERISTICS OF STORM SURGES, WITH FOCUS ON JAPAN

by Tatsuo Konishi1

A. Introduction

1. Definition of storm surge

Storm surge is a temporary rise of the sea level at thecoast in excess of the predicted astronomical tide levelcaused by barometric pressure differential and strong winds.Storm surge must be distinguished from waves. Somescientists use the term "positive" surge for the abovedefinition and the term "negative" surge for recession ofthe sea induced by winds blowing from land to sea (WMO,1978).

Figure I illustrates the storm surge and astronomicaltide components of the tides observed at the Tokyo portduring 30 June to 31 July 1991.

Devastating surges are generally associated with in-tense meteorological disturbances due to tropical cyclones,but some can be caused by extratropical cyclones.

2. Historical records of storm surges

Large storm surges often occur along the coastsfacing vast shallow seas. In particular, the coast of the Bayof Bengal, the east coast of the United States, the coast ofthe Gulf of Mexico, the coast of east Asia and the north-east coast of Australia have suffered severely from stormsurges in the past. Characteristics of major storm surgesobserved up to 1990 in those areas are presented in table11. The maximum height of the storm surge experiencedin the United States was 7.4 m which was observed nearPass Christian, on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, associ-ated with Hurricane Camile in August, 1969.

East Asia, as well as Bangladesh, has suffered ex-tremely severe damage due to storm surges. In India andVietnam, large numbers of people have been reported to bekilled by storm surges. A typhoon caused storm surge on2 September 1937 and killed 11 000 people in Hong Kong.

A famous example of storm surge due to extratropicalcyclones was experienced in 1953 along the North Seacoast. In the Netherlands, the plans for storm surge reductionworks in the south-west part of the country were formulatedbased on the damage caused by this storm surge.

B. Storm surges in Japan

1. Geographical characteristics of stormsurges in Japan

Storm surge occurrences exceeding one metre inheight at various ports in Japan are shown in map 1, Themap indicates that metropolitan port cities located in bayssuch as Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka are highly vulnerable tostorm surges, due to the fact that the physical conditionsfor storm surges exist in those areas. Namely, the bayshave vast shallow sea area and long fetch lengths for strongsoutherly winds to generate storm surges.

2. Historical characteristics of storm surges in Japan

Figure II is a chronological table of significant stormsurges including death tolls experienced in Japan from1945 to 1989. Such surges were observed 35 times duringthe last 45-year period and two metres were exceeded oneight occasions. This means that return periods of surgeexceeded 1 and 2 m in height are roughly 1.3 and 5.6 years,respectively. Among these events storm surges generatedby a typhoon in 1959 caused heavy death toll at Ise Bayarea. Since 1972, no storm surge exceeding 2.0 m has beenrecorded.

3. The Ise Bay disaster due to storm surges in Japan

One of the most severe storm surges in the modernhistory of Japan occurred in 1959 along the coast of IseBay associated with the typhoon 5915 at which time astorm surge of 3.5 m was observed at Nagoya and manycoastal levees were broken during the passage of thetyphoon. Inundated area was about 300 km2 and more than5 000 lives were lost. Eighty per cent of the death toll wasdue to the storm surge. The coast of the Ise Bay hadexperienced land subsidence before the typhoon hit due tooverpumping of groundwater and in many places the groundlevel was below the mean sea level. Consequently, inun-dation in some area lasted over one month.

The knowledge gathered on this event was used toprepare inundation hazard maps in some other places.Major paths of storm surge invasion were delineated afterpost-inspection of Ise Bay as 1) water routes, 2) creeks andrivers, 3) past rivers, 4) low land between levees and 5)

Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency.

86Pan Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

34 h

Figure I. Observed tide, astronomical tide and storm surges during typhoon 8506at Tokyo port (June 30-July 31, 1985)

Table 11. Major Storm Surges due to Tropical Cyclones

Country

USA

Bangladesh

Japan

Australia

USA

Station

Galveslon

ChiLlagong

Nagoya

Townsville

Pass Christian

Date

8 Sept. 1900

13 Nov. 1970

26 Sept. 1959

23 Dec. 1976

August 1969

StromSurges(m)

>6.5

4.2-7.2

3.5

3.0

7.4

EstimatedDeaths

6 000

200 000

5 100

streets. There was much damage to houses located perpen-dicular to the direction of storm surge invasion. On theother hand, a few houses located parallel to the direction ofthe storm surge at seaside were damaged.

C. Dynamic characteristics of storm surges

Main causes of storm surges are the effects of baro-metric depression and wind stress caused by winds blow-ing towards the coast from the sea.

A fall in atmospheric pressure of 1 millibar leads toa rise in the sea level of approximately 1 cm wiih the

condition of stationary storm and without the effect oftopography.

Sea level rise due to the effect of wind stress isexpressed by the formula, h=CFW2/D, where F, W, D andC are fetch length, wind speed, water depth and a numericalconstant, respectively. This equation indicates that highstorm surges are expected in a shallow bay, which has along fetch along wind direction.

In addition, bathymetry of the sea bottom, waves,astronomical tide, river floods and earth's rotation alsoinfluence the height of storm surges.

VI. Characteristics of slonn surges, with focus on Japan 87

POPULATION

500 000 - 1 000 000

1.000,000 - 5 000 000

> 5 000 000

I "Off

The bomdaries and names shown onthis map do not imply official acceptanceor endorsement by the United Nations

Map 1. Frequencies of storm surges exceeding 1 m along the Japanese coast since 1945. Circles indicate theposition of the city whose population is over 500 000.

4 nr3 m2 m1m0 m

-5698-•508 •202-

3755.

1 tiltI ' !,„ I45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64

4 nv3 m2 m1mOm-

73" •27"

J 1—Li ^ 1—"4-65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84

4 m-3 m2 m1 m0 m-

85 86 87 88 89

Figure II. Chronology of storm surges exceeding 1 m in Japan since 1945. Numerals attached to the barsindicate the death toll due to the typhoon. They are shown only for the storm surge exceeding 2 m.

Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related naturaldisasters in countries of the ESCAP region

D. Forecasting methods for storm surges

1. Empirical or statistical method

In employing an empirical or statistical method, asimple formula is applied to forecast maximum stormsurge using the predicted meteorological components, suchas maximum pressure drop and maximum wind. In Japan,the following relation is introduced for predicting themaximum surge (h),

(1) h = a(l010-Po) + bW2 cos (6)+c

Where P stands for the lowest pressure of the typhoon, Wis the maximum wind speed and 0 represents the anglebetween the wind vector and the direction in which thewind set-up is most effective. Coefficients a, b and c arethe numerical constants determined based on many obser-vations. The formula has a physical basis and the estima-tion of peak surge with this formula is generally accuratefor constants derived from a large amount of data on stormsurges caused by the typhoons with various tracks.

This method cannot be used to estimate storm surgesat a port which does not have historical data on stormsurges and it does not predict spatial distribution nortemporal variation of storm surges. Due to these defects,the dynamic method appears to be preferable to the empiri-cal method.

In case of extratropical cyclones, a statistical method,for example, a time series or a regression model, was oftenused.

2. Dynamic numerical method

This method is based on application of the fluiddynamics equations to describe the motion of sea waterunder atmospheric pressure and wind. In Japan, after theterrible disaster caused by a typhoon at the Ise Bay, simulationsof past storm surge events were extensively conducted formajor bays and applicability of the method was well dem-onstrated.

In the past, the application of the method had beenlimited to estimation of design tide levels to constructfacilities for disaster prevention, such as coastal levees andtide gates. Recently, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)has developed the numerical forecast method on a real timebasis. The method has six parameters that need to beestimated: initial typhoon position (longitude and latitudeof the position), the direction and the speed of typhoon, theminimum pressure and the radius of maximum wind, inaddition to information on bathymetry and topography.The results obtained by employing this method with theobservations made during typhoon 8506 in Tokyo Baygenerally indicated a good agreement. But there stillremain some problems to be solved and efforts are contin-ued to improve the method.

E. Special storm surge-related problems in Japan

There are two types of storm surges in Japan, mecha-nisms of which are not yet clarified.

1. Storm surges at ports facing the open sea

As mentioned previously, main surge is generallycaused by the wind stress due to winds blowing towardscoasts and the effect is inversely proportional to the depthof the sea outlying the coast. High storm surges are notusually experienced at ports facing deep ocean. In 1970,the typhoon 7010 hit Tosa Bay in Japan and the peak surgeof 2.1 m was observed at Kochi Port. A comparisonbetween observed storm surges and calculated ones usingthe formula employing historical records of the Kochi Portindicated abnormally high storm surges related to typhoon7010. The survey revealed that the abnormality extendedto the whole of Tosa Bay.

Considerable efforts have been made to explain themechanism, including use of numerical simulation, but invain up to the present. Similar abnormally high stormsurges have been observed in some other ports as well.Recently some investigations showed that the wave set-upeffect plays an important role in development of the stormsurge at open sea but quantitative conclusions have not yetbeen reached.

2. Abnormal tides

After the passage of the typhoon, it sometimes sohappens that the sea level rises about several tens of cm. inexcess of the astronomical tide. If it occurs at the period ofspring tide, it causes inundation in the low-lying areas.There have been many such cases that no clear intensemeteorological phenomena were accompanied with thehigh sea level. This situation induces anxiety amongpeople. It is thought qualitatively that the causes of suchabnormal tides may be the Ekman transport effect due tothe long duration of the wind parallel to the coast and theresultant wave which transmits a surge along the coast.

The phenomenon cannot yet be forecast, and itsmechanism has not been explained. On a real time basis,specialists are trying to detect the phenomenon in its earlystage in order to inform people of its occurrence as soon aspossible.

F. Operational monitoring and forecasting systemfor storm surges

1. Monitoring system

As mentioned above, there are unforeseeable tidalphenomena, and tides need to be monitored continuously

VI, Characteristics of storm surges, with focus on Japan 89

since it is desirable to detect the abnormal tides automati-cally. JMA has a tidal network composed of 72 tide gaugestations. The data from the stations are transmitted tonearby meteorological offices. The apparatus for monitor-ing tides has two automatic warning modes. One mode isto watch the height of the actual sea level. When the sealevel reaches a predetermined height assigned for eachport, a buzzer vibrates and the warning light is emitted toattract the notice of the meteorological staff. Anothermode is to watch the tidal residual. It the tidal residual isbigger than an assigned magnitude during an assignedperiod, a similar warning to the mode for watching theactual sea level is released.

This system makes it possible to detect tidal abnor-mality in its early stage. The information from this systemis disseminated to people from the meteorological office.

2. Forecasting system

Today, JMA uses the empirical method for operationalstorm surge prediction. Each meteorological office issuesan advisory or warning on storm surges to the public Thelocal centre of the meteorological agency forecasts thestorm surges and the sea levels on a personal computer.The same computer also has two other functions of moni-toring and collecting the tidal data.

G. Storm surge disaster prevention measures—Tokyo Bay case

There are generally four kinds of structural measuresfor storm surge prevention. They are levee banks, flood-gates, locks over the land and drainage pumps. Leveebanks prevent the sea water from invading the low-lyingareas. Floodgates are usually opened and ships are al-lowed to pass through canals and rivers. The flood gatesare closed when the sea level reaches a predeterminedheight. Locks over the land have the same function as thefloodgates, and normally they allow transportation overland, for example loading/unloading of ships. Pump sta-tions are installed for pumped drainage of inner basins tothe sea. These facilities are operated by a single authority,the staff members of Tokyo Metropolitan Government,because improper communication between bodies causesgreat damages to the area behind the levee bank. Figure HIshows an example of the operation of the disaster preven-tion facilities during the passage of the typhoon 7920.

Furthermore, there are three kinds of countermeas-ures to be undertaken during the storm period. They arethe measures for: the safe evacuation of ships; flood-proofing of buildings and other facilities; and protectinglife and property of inhabitants in the coastal areas fromstorm surges. Concerning the first measure, the Maritime

cm

3 0 0 -

2 0 0 -

100-

o -

pumpoperated

pump-stopped

gatesclosed

seaside

water levelradio stationopened

atmospheric pressure

r1000

-990

-980

>970

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18r~19

Figure III . Time table of operation of facilities and observed water levels and meteorological elements duringthe passage of typhoon 7920 at Tatsumi-Gate of Tokyo Metropolitan Government.

90Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

Safety Agency organizes a committee composed of relatedauthorities and groups to coordinate the measures againstthe typhoon. In accordance with the decisions of thecommittee, the chairman declares the stoppage of loading/unloading and recommends the evacuation of ships. Thesecond type of countermeasures for the buildings are per-formed by the management body of each building, indi-vidually. Countermeasures for inhabitants near the coastof Tokyo port are undertaken by the port managementbody, Tokyo Metropolitan Government.

References

Japan Meteorological Agency, 1973, Abnormally highstorm surges in Tosa bay. Oceanogr. Magazine, 25:37-58.

Konishi, T, 1989. Numerical forecast of storm surges onreal time basis. Oceanogr. Magazine, 39: 21-42.

Murty, T.S., 1984. Storm surges - Meteorological OceanTides. Canadian Bulletin of Fisheries and AquaticSciences, 808-835.

Oya, M., 1984. Multifunctional uses of geomorphologicalsurvey maps in identifying flood-stricken areas andland types. Seminar text for "Technology for disasterprevention" of Japan International Cooperation Agency.

World Meteorological Organization, 1978. Present tech-niques of tropical storm surge prediction. WMO,Reports on Marine Science Affairs, No. 500.

VII. Flood disaster reduction in the lower Mekong basin 91

VII. FLOOD DISASTER REDUCTION IN THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN

by Thaipuck Thammongkol1 and Le Huu Ti2

A. Background

The Mekong is the longest river in South-east Asiaand one of the largest rivers in the world. In terms ofdrainage area (795 000 sq km), it ranks as twelfth, but interms of runoff (475 000 x 106m3) it ranks as eighth.Originating from the Tibetan plateau at an elevation of5 000 m, the Mekong flows more or less in a southerlydirection through or along the border of six countries: thePeople's Republic of China, Union of Myanmar, the LaoPeople's Democratic Republic, Kingdom of Thailand,Cambodia and Socialist Republic of Viet Nam.

The Mekong drains an area of 795 000 sq. km, ofwhich 606 000 sq. km. are in the lower Mekong basin,comprising almost the whole of the Lao PDR and Cambodia,one third of Thailand and one fifth of Viet Nam.

Each year about 475 000 million m3 of water emptyinto the sea. At Pakse, where the drainage area accountsfor 79 per cent of the total area, the maximum discharge(57 800 m3/sec) is more than 50 times the minimum discharge(1 060 m3/sec). The general information on the hydrologyof the Mekong is shown in table 12.

B. Natural disasters in the lower Mekong basin

Although the lower Mekong basin is located in theworld's hazard belt of windstorms, storm surges, floods,drought and earthquakes, the major threats are floods anddrought and, to a lesser extent, windstorms.

Out of the average 31 cyclonic storms which occurover the western North Pacific and the South China Sea,from three to four storms or about 10 per cent enter oraffect the lower Mekong basin. There will be floods ifmore than six storms, and drought if less than three storms,enter the basin. However, flooding usually occurs whentwo or more of these storms occur in rapid succession orwhen the equatorial trough zone, which is the forward edgeof the south-west monsoon, has passed in one of its activestages, and a tropical storm follows shortly thereafter.

1. Flood damage

The Mekong, as many other major rivers, carries anenormous volume of excess water during the wet season,resulting in severe flooding and substantial damage almostevery year in the fertile flood plain along the mainstream,major tributaries, as well as the vast flood plain of thedelta. One of the largest floods in the history of theMekong occurred in 1966. This inflicted a total damage ininfrastructure and crops of US$ 66 million at the 1966price level (or approximately US$ 220 million at thepresent value). The average prospective annual damagewas estimated at US$ 36 million at the 1975 price level (orapproximately US$ 55 million at the present value).

Associated with annual floods is erosion of riverbanks. Bank erosion can cause loss of lives and propertyfor many towns located along the river banks.

2. Drought problems

Drought occurs annually in the basin. Even duringthe rainy season, drought can take place due to long dryspells. This type of drought causes heavy loss to theeconomy of the member countries of the Mekong Com-mittee. Its severity is aggravated by other problems relatedto the soil, such as salinity and acidity.

During the dry season, serious reduction in flowoften lead to drought in many areas, causing shortage ofwater for domestic use and agricultural development. Themost seriously affected area during the dry season is thecoastal plain of the Mekong delta, where the low flow notonly creates a shortage of water for human consumptionand agricultural development, but also results in severesalt water intrusion into the delta. An indication of theprospective damage can be estimated from the extent ofarea affected by the intrusion of salt water of some 1.2million ha.

3. Windstorms

Windstorms usually come with typhoons and heavyrainfalls which normally occur from June through Novem-

Note: The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policy of the Mekong Secretariat.1 Chief, Hydrology Unit, Mekong Secretariat2 Seiior Adviser, Basin Planning Division

Table 12. General hydrology of the Mekong River up to 1989

oto

Station

Chiang Saen

Luang Prabang

Vientiane

Nakhon Phanom

Mukdahan

Pakse

Stung Treng

Kratie

Phnom Penh

Drainage area

(km?)

189 000

268 000

299 000

373 000

391000

545 000

635 000

646 000

663 000

Discharge (m3/sec)

Maximum

23 500 (1966)

25 200 (1966)

26 000 (1966)

32900 (1948)

36 500 (1978)

57 800 (1978)

65 700 (1939)

66 700* (1939)

49 700* (1961)

Minimum

543 (1969)

652 (1956)

701 (1956,58)

915 (1969)

958 (1933)

1060 (1932,33)

934 (1937)

1250 (1960)

1250 (1960)

Average(year)

2 710

3 820

4 560

7 420

8 020

10 100

13 800

14 000

13 100**

(1929)

(1940)

(1977)

(1966)

(1966)

(1966)

(1946)

(1945)

(1914)

Runoffl(Pm3

85

120

144

234

253

319

435

441

413

Average annual

SedimentKfiton

160

Notes: * Backwater effect** Tidal effect

3 §o -a

§ 1

BsLo »

TO ?

i'i.

VII. Flood disaster reduction in the lower Mekong basin 93

ber. However, during April to May, localized windstormscan occur over the basin, particularly in the Lao PDR andThailand. For the delta, windstorms at various degrees cancause damage by the magnitude of wind and those associatedwith water level rise. During the dry season, although thewind velocity is relatively small, the slight increase in thewater level can push the saline water further inland. Themost severe damage usually takes place when a windstormoccurred at the same time as the highest spring tides duringthe dry season. On these occasions, highly saline water isspread over large areas of farm lands, causing damage tothe second crops and making the soil less suitable forcultivation in the next cropping season.

C. Flood forecasting and warning for the LowerMekong Basin

There are two types of measures which can be used todeal with the flooding of the Mekong: (a) dam construc-tion; and (b) non-structural measures. Dam constructionhelps to control the excess volume of water during theflood season by storing it in reservoirs. However, damconstruction requires large investment and is really a long-term solution.

In the short and medium-term, non-structural meas-ures, such as hydrological forecasting, are cheaper andmore practical. Hydrological forecasting is the predictedbehaviour of the river relating to the magnitude and thetime of occurrence of flooding. Although flood warningscannot prevent flooding, damage to property and loss oflife can be minimized through timely and accurate fore-casts. If the forecast is given well in advance, protectivemeasures, such as the strengthening or heightening offlood protection dikes, can be carried out.

Flood forecasting, if based upon reliable hydrologi-cal analysis and if accompanied by carefully preparedplans for emergency evacuation and rescheduling, can cutthe loss of livestock, machinery, and household goods.However, a forecasting system alone cannot be very ben-eficial unless it is tied to a system for spreading anddisseminating the forecasts. A comprehensive flood fore-casting system, including plans for using the forecasts,might be one of the most cost-effective measures in deal-ing with flood losses.

1. Flood affected areas

Differences in the magnitude and extent of floodingin flood-prone areas depend on local conditions and thedistribution of rainfall. In the upper reaches from ChiangSaen (Thailand) to Thakhek (Lao PDR)/Nakhon Phanom(Thailand), every key station recorded the maximum dis-charge during the 1966 flood; in the middle reaches inSavannakhet (Lao PDR)/Mukdahan (Thailand) and Pakse,

(Lao PDR), the maximum discharge recorded was duringthe 1978 flood; at Kratie (Cambodia), the highest recordedflood was in 1939; and, at Chau Doc in the Mekong delta(Viet Nam), the maximum water level was recorded in1961.

In the upper reaches some areas are subject to directflooding from the Mekong river on both banks of themainstream. The Vientiane/Nong Khai plain in the LaoPDR/Thailand is the worst affected area. In 1966, a floodof estimated 80-year frequency caused damage thereamounting to US$ 22 million. Two thirds of the city ofVientiane and the whole town of Nong Khai were inun-dated for almost a month. In the middle reaches the flood-prone areas are along both banks of the river from Thakhek/Nakhon Phanom to Pakse. The worst flood in this areaoccurred in 1978. At Pakse the water level was 2.5 mabove the flood stage and almost the whole town wasflooded.

In the lower reaches in Cambodia, where the land islow and flat, a larger area is usually inundated. Flooding isnot only attributable to the Mekong, but also partly to thebackwater effect from the Great Lake. The frequency offlooding is also more than that observed upstream. In VietNam a large part of the Mekong delta is often flooded forextended periods. During the 1966 flood, the damage inthe lower reaches in the Mekong delta was estimated atUS$ 34 million.

2. Development of flood forecasting in the lowerMekong basin

The severe flood of 1966 led to a call for a floodwarning system. To help alleviate the adverse effects offlooding in the member countries, the Mekong Committeerequested UNDP's assistance in establishing a basin-wideflood forecasting system for the lower Mekong basin inJanuary 1968.

With the assistance of India and the United States, anexpert group was formed to carry out the required study. Areport entitled "Proposed implementation of a basin-wideflood forecasting system for the lower Mekong basin" wasprepared in December 1969 and was approved by theMekong Committee in 1970.

The expert group recommended the training of threestaff members from the Mekong Secretariat in river fore-casting and the application of satellite imagery in weatherforecasting at the United States Corps of Engineers, NorthPacific Division, and the Portland River Forecast Centre,US National River Service, Portland, Oregon. The forecastingprogramme started on a trial basis during the 1970 Mekongflood season to demonstrate the feasibility of a centralizedforecasting system using advanced computer techniquesand mathematical models. Since then, the operation has

94Pan Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

been carried out annually during the flood season fromJuly to October.

The basin-wide flood forecasting operation has beencarried out jointly with the member countries and real-timedata have been provided.

3. Simulation of flooding

Based on the flood characteristics discussed above,flooding in the lower Mekong basin is simulated by threecomputer models in the flood forecasting operation:

SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis and ReservoirRegulation) for the upper and middle reaches

DELTA for the lower reaches of the delta with-out tidal effects

TIDAL for the main channels of the Mekongestuaries system with tidal effects.

(a) SSARR Model

This is a river system model. Drainage basins aresub-divided into homogeneous hydrologic units, and theoutflow from each of the sub-basins or watershed model isderived from rainfall. The watershed model estimatesrunoff excess based on soil moisture index values whichare computed from rainfall and evaporation relationships.The runoff excess is further divided into baseflow anddirect runoff, using an empirically estimated baseflowinfiltration index. The direct runoff is further separatedinto surface and sub-surface flows using an empiricalsurface-sub-surface separation curve. These three compo-nents of runoff are then routed through their respectiveconceptual storages, each with a different number of storagesand time of storage. The routed components are combinedto become the sub-basin outflow which is then added to themainstream flow, routed through the channel to a down-stream point and combined with the outflow from the nextsub-basin.

(b) Delta Model

The DELTA model covers an area of about 50 000sq.km.inCambodiaandVietNam. This area was schematizedinto 293 meshes. The schematization was based on topo-graphic condition and flow regime between one mesh andanother. The flow regime in the DELTA model is expressedby the system of Saint Venant equations integrated withrespect to the vertical direction and averaged over thelateral direction. The finite difference method in an implicitscheme is used in programming. Included in this model,besides the effects from rainfall and main river dischargefrom the upper area, are the effects of overbank flow in

flood plains and flow regulation by the natural reservoir ofthe Great Lake. The Great Lake with its maximum capac-ity of about 72 000 million m \ significantly reduces theflood peak upstream by absorbing a large volume of floodwater during the rising period and prolongs the inundationperiod by releasing water during the recession period.

The main inputs to the DELTA model are the main-stream discharge at Kratie, water level at river mouths,rainfall and flow from the Great Lake sub-basin.

(c) TIDAL Model

The TIDAL model was originally used to study thedistribution of low flow under tidal effects during the dryseason. The model was subsequently modified to estimatethe effects of tides on the flood water level in the mainchannels. The finite difference scheme adopted in thismodel is the node and branch approach using the thirdimplicit scheme of Dronkers. The main inputs to thismodel are the water level at Phnom Penh and tidal fluctua-tions at the sea.

(d) Relations among SSARR, DELTA and TIDALmodels in flood forecasting operations

The SSARR model is used to estimate the dischargeand flood stage of the upper and middle reaches. Thedischarge obtained from simulation by SSARR is thenused as an input to the DELTA model. The water level atPhnom Penh estimated by the DELTA model is used as aforecast input to the TIDAL model. The forecast waterlevels are updated using first-hand data.

4. Operational details

(a) Basin-wide flood forecasting operations

An operation starts in May each year to establish thecorrect initial conditions of all parameters so that theactual forecasts can be made from July through November.

The accuracy of the results produced by the sophis-ticated models depends mainly on the quality of the inputs.Rainfall data are the most important.

These inputs consist of information provided by anetwork of 41 rainfall reporting stations and 26 water levelstations equipped with radio-transceivers and APT pic-tures from weather satellites including NOAA and GMS.

During the whole period of the flood forecastingoperation, data on water levels and rainfall from reportingstations of the Mekong radio network are sent to theMekong Secretariat at 0730 hours each working day. Ad-ditional information on rainfall from another 15 stations is

VU. Flood disaster reduction in the lower Mekong basin 95

received by telephone, and satellite pictures are obtainedthrough the telefax system from the Meteorological De-partment of Thailand. All data are analyzed and used asinputs to run the forecast models on the computer. Theflood forecasting operation is carried out each working dayand on holidays during the critical period of high flow.

All daily information, including rainfall with thetime of distribution and gauge height reading of the waterlevel of the Mekong as well as its tributaries, is receivedthrough the radio-transceiver network (30 reporting sta-tions) from 0730 to 0800 hours. Received data are analyzedon a routine basis as follows:

(1) Interpretation of all available rainfall data, in-cluding the distribution of rainfall.

(2) Analysis of a synoptic chart, together with satel-lite pictures, is made from the quantitative rain-fall for the preceding period as well as the fore-cast period, and forecasts are made for each sub-basin.

(3) Conversion of water levels to discharge by ap-plying the appropriate rating curves.

(4) Computation of local or sub-basin flow as thedifference between the station's inflow and thenext upstream routed flow.

(5) Preparation of data for each of the above items tobe used as inputs to the SSARR model.

(6) Computer run at 1000 hours.

(7) Computer outputs are examined and checked.

(8) Forecasts and local flows are plotted for allstations.

(9) Adjustment of forecasts, if necessary.

(10) Forecasts are disseminated to all authoritiesconcerned in the member countries around 1130hours.

Forecasts of water levels are made for 14 key loca-tions: they are made from one to five days in advance forfive locations in the Lao PDR, namely, Luang Prabang,Vientiane, Thakhek, Savannakhet and Pakse; five loca-tions in Thailand, namely, Chiang Saen, Chiang Khan,Nong Khai, Nakhon Phanom and Mukdahan; and one to 15days in advance for four locations in Viet Nam, namely,Tan Chau, Chau Doc, My Thuan and Can Tho.

The location of the forecast stations and reportingstations is shown in map 2.

(b) Flood forecasting for a major tributary

Flood forecasting for the lower Nam Ngum is carriedout during the flood season between July and October withthe application of the SSARR model and informationreceived from the Mekong reporting stations. Forecastsare made from one to five days in advance for one locationon the Nam Ngum. The programme will be extended tocover other major tributaries.

(c) Forecasts of flow into the existing reservoir

The experimental forecast of flow into the NamNgum reservoir is expected to be carried out in 1991. Theforecast will be useful for flood control and better reservoirregulation. In preparation for this, flood models are beingcalibrated with the available data.

(d) Long-term river forecasting

Long-term river forecasts (monthly or seasonal) serveto provide information on the volume of runoff for floodcontrol, irrigation, power generation, water supply andlong-range navigation planning. The Mekong Committeeis planning for this kind of forecasting in the near future.

5. Dissemination and utilization of forecasts

Forecasts are disseminated daily to the National MekongCommittees in the member countries which also serve ascommunication centres in providing the real-time data asshown in figure IV.

Information is transmitted to the following:

- National Mekong Committee of the Lao PDR,by radio at 1130 hours;

National Mekong Committee of Thailand (Na-tional Energy Administration) by hand at 1400hours and the Meteorological Department bytelephone at 1130 hours; and

National Mekong Committee, Viet Nam, in Ha-noi and the Flood Forecasting Centre, in Ho ChiMinh City, by radio at 1330 hours.

The National Mekong Committees relay forecasts toFlood Forecasting Centres in each country. Forecasts arethen transmitted to provincial centres by radio or telephoneand/or to radio broadcasting stations for further action asone of the flood warning measures, and to the DisasterPrevention Centre for appropriate action for flood reliefand flood fighting. An example of the flood loss preven-tion measures being carried out in Viet Nam is shown inFigure V,

96Part Two: Technical background papers on water-related natural

disasters in countries of the ESCAP region

MYANMAR

SYMBOLS

— • " - INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES

• WATERSHED BOUNDARIES

® FORECAST AND REPORTING STATION

A REPORTING STATION

The boundaries and names shown onIMS map do not imply official acceptanceor endorsement by the United Nations

100 200 300 km

SCALE

Map 2. Flood forecasting operation in the Mekong delta

MEKONGSECRETARIAT I

a.

5"

Real-timedata

18 rainfall18 GH

I

±Forecasts5 stations Real-time

data17 rainfall

6GH

LAO PDRNATIONAL MEKONG COMMITTEE

Real-timedata

6 rainfall6GH

THAILANDNATIONAL MEKONG COMMITTEE

Real-timedata

18 rainfall18 GH

I

Forecasts5 stations

Real-timedata

17 rainfall6GH

VIENTIANEFORECASTING CENTRE

I

I

IIo

2"

VIET NAMNATIONAL MEKONG COMMITTEE

Forecasts4 stations

Real-timedata

6 rainfall6GH

BANGKOKFORECASTING CENTRE

I

Forecasts4 stations

HANOI AND HO CHI MINH CITYFORECASTING CENTRES

Figure IV. Dissemination of forecasts in the Mekong Basin

MEKONGSECRETARIAT

00

For casting Centrein Ho Chi Minh City

NATIONAL DISASTERPREVENTION COMMITTEES

Preventivemeasures 3

Ho

HYDROLOGIC CENTRES DISSEMINATING & WARNING OFFICE LOCAL DISASTER PREVENTION OFFICE IIO u

113. "

PROVINCIAL AUTHORITIES

Figure V. Communication of forecasts between the Mekong Secretariatand Vietnamese authorities

n «> n

-a °-"E. c§ a

VII. Flood disaster reduction in the lower mekong basin 99

As mentioned earlier, flood forecasting cannot pre-vent the occurrence of a flood, but advance warnings canhelp to reduce damage caused by flooding.

The economic value of forecasting depends on itsaccuracy and the period of time covered. The greater theaccuracy and the longer the period covered, the greater theeconomic value in planning for the utilization of waterresources. Apart from protection measures mentionedearlier, flood warnings are of considerable value in organ-izing the evacuation of people and removal of property andequipment from affected areas. The experience gained bythe Mekong Secretariat staff over a relatively long periodof forecasting operations has indicated that application ofmathematical models for flood forecasting purposes istechnically feasible and effective. Reference can be madeto the important flood of 1971 in the Vientiane-Nong Khaiarea where forecasts were a major contributory factorwhich helped to save movable assets in the flood plain andgave the authorities concerned in both cities time to strengthenthe flood protection dikes. Reference can also be made tothe flood of 1978 in the Mekong delta, when two-weekwarnings of the flood peaks helped to reduced damage;crops were harvested before the arrival of the flood. Theauthorities concerned had enough time to prepare for floodmonitoring in the delta and were able to raise the height ofthe dikes in densely populated areas.

D. Other disaster reduction activities ofthe Mekong Committee

1. Other river forecasting activities

Besides the annual flood forecasting operation, theCommittee also carries out its annual low flow and salinityintrusion forecasting operation during the dry season, startingin January until June. Currently, these forecasting activi-ties are limited to the Mekong delta to provide forecasts tofacilitate the operation of water control structures, irriga-tion and water management. Attempts have also beenmade to provide forecasts on the effects of windstorms toreduce damage associated with a rise in water level at theriver mouth. Since the forecasts of low flow are alsoimportant to navigation, low flow forecasting operationsare expected to be extended to the upstream part of theMekong in the near future.

2. Activities related to river bank erosion

In view of the damage caused by river bank erosionto the many densely populated settlements along the Mekong,a pilot basin-wide bank protection project was formulatedwith three major objectives:

(a) To construct bank protection works at pilot areasof critical reaches with emphasis on low cost andthe use of local materials;

(b) To study the detailed process of river morphol-ogy at selected reaches to provide more precisedata for bank protection design and to provideinformation for a warning operation; and

(c) To prepare guidelines on bank protection worksand the use of river channels to prevent severebank erosion.

Phase II of this pilot basin-wide project has practicallybeen completed, except that due to a shortage of externalfinancial assistance, only one of the four pilot sites of bankprotection was constructed. Regular monitoring of changesin the river bed is conducted.

E. Cooperation with international bodies

After its inception in 1957 under the aegis of theUnited Nations, the Mekong Committee cdoperated closelywith the Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East(ECAFE); particularly with the Bureau of Flood Control,and later with ESCAP. Since the establishment of theTyphoon Committee in 1968, the Mekong Committee hascooperated with this Committee. Lately it has cooperatedwith ESCAP in the Expert Group Meetings on comprehen-sive Flood Loss Prevention and Management.

From June to August 1990, ESCAP provided theservices of a technical Adviser to the Mekong Secretariatto field a mission to the Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Namto assess the present flood forecasting facilities and topropose improvements.

In order to mitigate the severe effects of flooding, theCommittee initiated its flood forecasting programme forthe four member countries in 1970. Since then, thisoperation has been carried out annually.

To signify the International Decade for NationalDisaster Reduction, the Mekong Committee formulated in1990 a project entitled "Flood Forecasting and DamageReduction Study". The main objectives are:

1. To provide advance information on flood condi-tions to the people living in flood-prone areas toenable them to undertake necessary actions thatmay eliminate/minimize the human sufferingand/or property losses;

2. To establish a programme of emergency actionfor the issuance and dissemination of forecasts;and

3. To increase the capability of technical personnelof the Secretarial and the national agencies con-cerned in the preparation and dissemination offorecasts.

PART THREE

NATIONAL DISASTER MITIGATION EFFORTSIN COUNTRIES OF THE ESCAP REGION,WITH EMPHASIS ON WATER-RELATED

NATURAL DISASTERS

I. Major natural disasters which affect Australia 103

I. MAJOR NATURAL DISASTERS WHICH AFFECT AUSTRALIA

by Raymond K. Ellis1

A. Introduction

Australia is an island continent extending from ap-proximately 10 degrees to 45 degrees south latitude and issubject to harsh extremes of climate. It has an area of 7.7million square kilometres and a population of 17 million.Much of the land is desert or semi desert and the remaindervaries from tropical rain forest to extensive winter snowfields.

Natural disasters affecting Australia include cyclones,severe storms, earthquakes, floods, bushfires, droughts,soil degradation and locust plagues. Introduction of exoticanimal diseases to which local stock has no immunity is aconstant threat which is viewed very seriously.

This paper will address Australian perceptions ofmajor natural disasters affecting this continent. However,before doing this it is necessary to explain counter disasterprinciples and arrangements applicable to the Australianscene.

Australia has a federal system of government withone Commonwealth and eight state governments. Addi-tionally there are 880 local government authorities.

B. Ntural disasters in Australia and countermeasures

1. Bushfires

These are a severe summer hazard in the east/south-east, including the island of Tasmania and the south-westof the continent. Good rains in 1990 have produced highfuel loads in forests and farmlands and early summerconditions have been hot and dry with strong winds. Al-though several months of summer remain, bushfires havealready caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damages.The state of New South Wales alone had some 500 separatefires burning at one severe period over Christmas 1990.

Although damage from cyclones, storms and hail,easily exceeds that from bushfires in an average year, thepotential destruction from large fires is enormous. Forexample 1983 Ash Wednesday fires in Victoria and SouthAustralia caused the following damage:

People killed

Cattle killed

Sheep killed

Houses destroyed

Commercial properties destroyed

Farms destroyed/damaged

Area of land affected (ha)

Fencing destroyed (kms)

Estimated costs (1983 prices)

TOTAL

75

16690

264 000

2031

84

2 234

243 700

14 400

AS 600m

Australian bushfires fall into two main categories:

Grass fires

Forest fires

The former occur on grazing and farming land. Theyare mainly fought by well organised and trained volunteerfire fighters with vehicle mounted equipment. Observa-tion is often provided by light aircraft and helicopters.Crop dusting aircraft using water or retardants are ofteneffective in saving farm houses and facilities. Helicopterswith buckets lift water from dams or swimming pools andprovide a similar service. They are effective in stoppingspot fires ignited by windborn firebrands, sometimes kilo-metres ahead of the main fire front. This greatly assists andcontributes to the safety of fire fighting crews. Largeraircraft are rarely used because of cost, long turn aroundtimes, limited water supplies and questionable effective-ness. Bulldozers and graders are used to create firebreaksahead of fire fronts and back burning in conjunction withfirebreaks is frequently effective.

Vegetation varies from grasslands through transi-tional stages to dense forest, often in inaccessable country.Under adverse weather conditions, fires in Australiansclerophyll forests cannot be stopped. Huge amounts offlammable eucalyptus vapour, transpired from leaves, cre-ate fireballs which often engulf the upper storey ahead ofthe main fire front. Clouds of dense smoke can mask thefire front from both ground and aerial observation. Duringthe Ash Wednesday fires aerial-mounted infra-red heat-sensing equipment was needed to locate and plot somefires.

Executive officer, Australian IDNDR, Coordination Committee

104Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

The South-east of Australia is probably the greatestfire hazard in the world. Fires are driven south by stronghot north winds and long fire flanks frequently become firefronts when wind changes move in from the Great Austral-ian Bight. Timely and accurate meteorological informa-tion is vital for fire fighting teams. This is later amplifiedunder counter measures. Many forest fires burn untilstopped by nature. This may be many weeks after ignition.Forest fires are fought by professional firefighters andtrained volunteers.

An important countermeasure for all fires is accuratemeteorological forecasts. Routine estimates of fire dangerare prepared several times daily and passed to fire authori-ties. Special forecasts are issued during fires. Meteoro-logical information is routinely gathered from sourceswhich include free floating ocean transmitter stations tothe south of Australia. Arrangements commencing Janu-ary 1991 now provide during periods of high fire dangerfor aerial reconnaissance to intercept wind changes beforethey make landfall. This will enable better predictions.Other countermeasures include: heavy fines for carelesscampers or smokers; partial or total fire bans; trained andequipped volunteer and professional fire fighters; controlledburning to reduce fuel loads; firebreaks; clearing vegeta-tion from buildings; clearing debris from roof gutters;public awareness campaigns and spark eliminators foragricultural vehicle exhaust pipes.

2. Cyclones

Approximately 10 000 kilometres of Australiancoastline is subject to cyclone threat. Although the city ofDarwin in the Northern Territory was reduced to rubble on25 December 1974, the greatest cyclone threat is to theQueensland coast which has numerous substantial citiesand towns along its length.

Cyclone Tracy destroyed Darwin and wasAustralia's most extensive natural disaster. Only 400 outof 10 000 buildings survived. Power, water, sanitation andcommunications were lost. Some 45 000 people werehomeless. Sixty-five died. The airport anemometer re-corded 217 km/h before failing.

Although Darwin had experienced prior cyclonesand ample warnings of Tracy were broadcast, many of thepopulation disregarded warnings and proceeded with theirChristmas festivities. Many lives would have been savedand some of the $A1 000 million damage reduced hadpeople heeded warnings.

Substantial damage has been caused by cyclonescrossing the Queensland and West Australian coasts butfortunately most have struck areas of sparse population.

Each year the Bureau of Meteorology conductsworkshops on the latest techniques for forecasting thebehaviour of tropical cyclones. Meteorologists from PapuaNew Guinea and the South-west Pacific are invited when-ever possible. Australia also provides lecturers for WorldMeteorological Organization (WMO) sponsored Pacificworkshops on tropical cyclone forecasting. A comprehen-sive Australian tropical cyclone warning system computerpackage which will operate on personal computers, wasintroduced in November 1990 to tropical cyclone warningcentres situated in Perth, Darwin and Brisbane. It can bemade available to interested meteorological services. Cy-clones are now rated on a category from 1 to 5, with 5 beingthe most destructive.

Other cyclone countermeasures include: cycloneemergency warning sounds to precede electronic mediawarnings; and revised building construction codes forcyclone areas. A cyclone structural testing station hasbeen functioning since 1977 at the James Cook Universityat Townsville in Queensland. This specializes in testinghouse designs. Although not restricted to any specificnatural disaster, one of the main lessons learned fromCyclone Tracy was that much needless stress is caused byevacuation of women and children first. In most casesfamilies should be evacuated as a unit.

3. Floods

Generally forested mountainous ranges, parallel andclose to the east coast of Australia, result in short easterlyflowing rivers which usually flood violently for a period ofdays or a few weeks. Massive inland river systems arefrequently waterless but flood vast areas for periods ofweeks to many months.

During the first few days of 1991, Tropical CycloneJoy degenerated into a vast depression dumping some2310 millimetres (91 inches) of rain in an area fromTownsville to Rockhampton in Queensland, over a periodof 8 days. One town recorded 1040 millimetres in 12hours. The Dawson and Mackenzie Rivers feeding into thealready flood swollen Fitzroy River produced severe floodingat Rockhampton. Severe stock and property losses oc-curred and a state of emergency was declared over onethird of the state. Many properties and homes were evacu-ated and Australian Defence Force assistance was provided.Army Blackhawk helicopters were used for evacuationand fodder dropping to isolated stock. Several days warn-ing of impending flood levels assisted to reduce losses.However there was need for essential resupply by air forisolated communities and towns.

Towards the end of January about 500 000 squarekilometres of Queensland were flood affected by monsoonalrains.

I. Major natural disasters which affect Australia 105

When inland river systems flood as occurred in mid1990, huge tracts of relatively flat country become coveredwith slow moving sheets of water which flow into normallydry inland lakes or to the ocean, thousands of kilometresaway. These waters appear months later and hundreds ofkilometres away from where it rained. The pattern is fairlypredictable and losses are minimized by moving stockaway from threatened areas and prepositioning supplies.Towns in such areas are generally small and protected bylevee banks.

Disasters however do occur. The 1990 floods werehuge, covering more than 1 000 000 square kilometres ofQueensland and New South Wales. The interaction ofnumerous flooded river systems made flood height predictiondifficult. Residents of the Western New South WalesTown Nyngan, strengthened levee banks in expectation ofa flood height which was eventually exceeded. The wholetown of some 2000 people was evacuated under emergencyconditions as all services were lost. Considerable cost andhardship occurred because the town did not have a disasterplan to cope with levee bank failure.

Countermeasures for floods include preparation offlood plain maps and control of development on floodprone areas. Federal-State flood warning consultativecommittees (FWCC) have been established in all states.Membership includes: the Bureau of Meteorology; WaterResources Commission; State Emergency Services andLocal Government Association. Many hundreds of thou-sands of sandbags are prepositioned in flood prone areas.

The December 1990 issue of the Natural DisastersOrganisation Newsletter 'The Macedon Digest', availableon request, contains three articles on recent Australianfloods.

4. Storms

Violent storms including hail cause considerabledamage to buildings and crops. During 1990 one hailstorm alone caused several hundred million dollars loss inSydney. A large component of this was damage to manythousands of motor vehicles both on the road and in dealers'yards. Australia also experiences numerous tornados mainlyin the sparsely inhabited interior where, usually, littledamage is caused. However in January 1991 both Melbourneand Sydney, largecities, experienced violent storms believedto be tornados. In the space of minutes, hundreds ofmillions of dollars damage resulted.

Volunteer State Emergency Services (SES) providethe main storm countermeasures, repairing roofs and re-moving fallen trees. Considerable stocks of plastic sheeting,small and large tarpaulins and ropes are maintained instores servicing approximately 1000 SES units throughout

the country. A significaptly upgraded thunderstorm warn-ing service based largely on radar observations and sup-ported by automatic weather stations was introduced formainland capital cities in February 1990. It will be extendedto other major population centres as resources becomeavailable.

5. Earthquakes

Australian earthquakes are intraplate. Adelaide andPerth, state capitals, are in known earthquake risk areas.Meckering and Cadoux, wheatbelt towns in Western Australia,have both been damaged by earthquakes in the past twodecades and the small mining town of Tennant Creek in theNorthern Territory has experienced three earthquakes since1988. These have registered 6.3,6.4 and 6.8 on the RichterScale. However, the only major Australian city to suffersevere earthquake damage is the mining and industrialNew South Wales coastal city of Newcastle. On 28 December1989 an earthquake measuring 5.6 on the Richter Scalecaused 12 deaths and total damage of approximately $1.5billion inclusive of infrastructure costs. Considerableresearch has been done to determine why a small earthquakecaused so much damage. Causes include: underlyingalluvium which significantly magnified ground motion; amajor club building had faulty roof trusses; outer wall tiesin buildings had corroded with age and cantilevered shopawnings could not withstand the shock.

Countermeasures for earthquakes are currently un-der assessment, but multiple seismic monitoring stationslinked to central computers have already been establishedat Newcastle.

6. Drought and soil degradation

Drought has always been a part of Australian life andcommunities affected by drought have received Govern-ment financial assistance in the past. There is however agrowing realisation that much grazing and farming coun-try is so marginal that it should never have been developedin the first place and the wisdom of continuous use ofnational funds in support of such development is beingquestioned. This and the subject of soil degradation,which is being hastened by questionable farming and grazingpractices as well as the depredations of imported pestssuch as rabbits and goats, is under continuous review bythe Commonwealth and State Governments.

Countermeasures include: restrictions on further landclearing; reforestation programmes; vermin control pro-grammes; and a wide range of incentive programmes toencourage sound land management. These measures are toonumerous to be covered here except in the broadest sense.

106Pan Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

7. Exotic animal diseases and locust plague

The Australian Quarantine and Inspection Servicemaintains a constant guard to prevent introduction of ex-otic animal diseases. Australia is free of foot and mouthdisease and long expensive campaigns have been undertakento eliminate tuberculosis and brucellosis from cattle herds,ensuring that meat and by-products qualify for entry to themost demanding markets.

Although exotic animal diseases are not considered anatural disaster by most Governments, the economic impacton Australia following any loss of overseas markets wouldexceed that of natural disasters.

Countermeasures include strict quarantine regula-tions, and aerial and maritime coastal surveillance coupledwith regular inspection of herds and animal products.

Locust plagues pose a serious threat to Australianprimary producers and if left unchecked would provedisastrous. Departments of Agriculture maintain closewatch on known and reported breeding areas and controlby aerial spraying before locusts swarm.

C. Disaster management system

Australia's counter disaster system reflects the factthat states have constitutional responsibility for protectionof the lives and property of their citizens. State governmentsexercise control over most of the functions which areessential for effective disaster prevention, preparedness,response and recovery - through the legislative and regu-latory arrangements within which the community and thevarious agencies operate; through the provision of police,fire, ambulance, medical, hospital and emergency services;and through the government and statutory agencies whichprovide services to the community. Local governmentplays a major role, as do the communities they serve. Therole of the Commonwealth is to provide guidance andsupport to states in developing their capacity for dealingwith disaster. This is done in part by the Natural DisastersOrganisation and its training arm, the Australian CounterDisaster College. Should a State experience a disaster withwhich if cannot cope, the Commonwealth will providephysical assistance and may also provide finance for recovery.

The national system for combating disaster thus re-lies on a partnership between all levels of government andthe community,

Australian national system has three main elements:

• the Commonwealth/states agreement for finan-cial relief under the Natural Disaster Relief Ar-rangements (NDRA);

• the state counterdisaster organisations; and

• The Natural Disasters Organisation.

The first element is a Commonwealth/state agreementfor financial relief under the Natural Disaster Relief Ar-rangements (NDRA), established by the Commonwealth,to assist states to meet the unpredictable and sometimeslarge costs of providing natural disaster relief and recov-ery. Under NDRA the Commonwealth reimburses at least50 per cent of state expenditure on eligible measures forshort-term relief of personal hardship and distress. It alsoprovides financial assistance for other eligible longer-termrelief and restoration measures.

The second element is the state counter disasterorganisations. They are generally built around state coun-ter disaster committees or councils. Their functions differin detail, but they are mainly responsible to ensure thatproper plans and arrangements for dealing with disastersare in place.

Members come from the various emergency serv-ices, state authorities, and volunteer organisations likely tobe needed. Below State level, that is at regional and locallevels, there are similar committees, which are usuallychaired by senior police officers.

At the operational end of the system there are emer-gency operations centres at each level to co-ordinate theactivities of the many participating organisations includingthe police, fire and ambulance services, State EmergencyServices, plus numerous supporting organisations.

The Australian concept is simple. In the first in-stance, the problem of dealing with an emergency ordisaster is the responsibility of individuals who are directlyinvolved. When it becomes apparent that they cannotreasonably cope, they seek help-normally from local gov-ernment. Thus, responsibility for response, containmentand restoration starts at the lowest level of government-and passes up through the region or district to state level ascapabilities or capacities are exceeded.

This disaster management philosophy has developedfrom the fact that the closest relationship between peopleand government is at local government level. It relies onthe fact that early application of locally available resourceswill provide the most effective response, in the form offirst aid or life-saving remedial measures.

It also acknowledges that if help from a nearbymunicipality or from the state is called for, there will be adelay before it arrives. This means that self-help, espe-cially at local government level, is central to the Australianphilosophy for development of an effective capability.

I. Major natural disasters which affect Australia 107

Indeed, experience has shown that development of such acapability depends primarily upon having a preparedcommunity-that is, a community which:

• is alert, informed and active;

• has an active and involved local Government;and

• has agreed, co-ordinated and proven arrange-ments for disaster response.

The third element of the national system is the Natu-ral Disasters Organisation (NDO).

Its function is:

"To promote and support an effective national coun-ter disaster and core civil defence capability. To co-ordinate Commonwealth Government physical assistancewithin Australia in time of disaster and act as operationalagent for the Australian International Development Assist-ance Bureau within the South West Pacific and Papua NewGuinea.

To meet that function NDO is organised in two parts:A Headquarters responsible for operations, policy andsupport, and the Australian Counter Disaster College re-sponsible for training. Total staff is 68.

It is important to note that Australian counter disas-ter arrangements apply equally to natural and man-madedisasters. We apply the same set of management arrange-ments to all types of disasters and to civil defence. This isgenerally known as the 'All Hazards Approach'. We alsobelieve it is essential to address four basic elements ofdisaster management. These are prevention, preparedness,response and recovery. It is called the 'ComprehensiveApproach'. These and other basic considerations are am-plified in a publication 'Commonwealth Counter DisasterConcepts and Principles' which together with its compan-ion document 'Australian Counter Disaster Arrangements'is available on request, free of charge. Study of thesepublications will provide an understanding of Australiancounter disaster arrangements which are simple, effective,and have withstood the test of time. Arrangements relyheavily on volunteer effort, and the extent of this effortmay be better appreciated from the fact that Australia'spopulation base of about 17 million provides 250 000volunteer fire fighters, 60 000 volunteer members of StateEmergency Services plus many thousands of volunteers inorganisations such as the Red Cross, Salvation Army andthe St John Ambulance Brigade.

This national system has evolved from over 30 yearsof practical experience and is serviced by, and in turnserves an informed society backed by a sound nationalinfrastructure.

Australia also provides substantial assistance tooverseas countries with emphasis on Papua New Guineaand nations of the South West Pacific.

The Australian International Development Assist-ance Bureau (AIDAB), an arm of the Department of For-eign Affairs and Trade, manages all Government overseasaid. To assist in this task the Natural Disasters Organisa-tion acts as agent for AIDAB in co-ordinating governmentphysical response to overseas disasters. The AustralianOverseas Disaster Response Organisation (AODRO) is aNGO substantially funded by AIDAB to co-ordinate Aus-tralian non-government organisations response to over-seas disasters.

There are several important lessons common to alldisasters. These are:

• you have never learnt all the lessons;

• lessons learnt must be recorded for future use;

• lessons recorded for future use will rarely beread; therefore

• regular exercises must teach lessons learned.

D. International Decade for Natural DisasterReduction and Australia

Although geographically large, Australia has onlymodest financial and population resources. Consequentlyit must be selective in its IDNDR contributions and thesewill be mainly channelled into the South West Pacific area.Nevertheless, Australia is producing a series of emergencyoperations and training manuals as a general contribution.

Experts from each Australian Emergency and Re-sponse Agency, funded by the Natural Disasters Organisa-tion, are jointly preparing manuals of wide application.Already two have been published. These are, 'DisasterRescue', and 'Land Search Operations'. Copies have beensent by request to a number of overseas countries. Manu-als now being printed include 'FloodRescue Boat Operation',and 'Storm Damage Operations'. Manuals under develop-ment include: 'Four Wheel Drive Vehicle Operation','Communications','Training and Instructional Techniques','Chain Saw Operation', 'Vertical Rescue'; 'Road AccidentRescue' and 'Emergency Management Planning'. Thesemanuals may be reproduced free of copyright fees, subjectto suitable acknowledgement. For developing countriescopies will be provided in English, free of charge. Copiesof the two printed manuals and other public awarenessmaterial covering cyclones, severe storms, earthquakesand floods are available on request.

108Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

Enquiries should be directed to:

The ChairmanAustralian IDNDR Co-ordination CommitteePO Box 1020Dickson ACT 2602Australia

E. Conclusion

Australian counter disaster arrangements have stoodthe test of time and work well. Changes are continuously

made as a result of lessons learned, but these are generallyof a 'fine tuning nature' and major changes are unlikely.

Although systems and procedures which work underpolitical and geographic circumstances applicable in Aus-tralia, may not be ideal for other countries, it is possiblethat some or all will be of interest.

In accordance with the international spirit of theIDNDR, enquiries for additional information will be wel-comed.

II. Impact of natural disasters on Bangladesh 109

II . IMPACT OF NATURAL DISASTERS ON BANGLADESH

by Mohiuddin Azad1

A. Introduction

Bangladesh is an small country, covering an area of144 000 sq. km. The country has four administrativedivisions with 64 districts and 460 sub-districts. Over 110million people are squeezed in this small area, of whom 85per cent are engaged in agriculture. The country is adeltaic plain through which three mighty river systemsflow into the Bay of Bengal in the south—the Ganges, theBrahmaputra and the Meghna.

B. Natural disasters in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a disaster-prone country. Floods,cyclones, and droughts are the three most destructivenatural disasters that have been affecting the life of thepeople of Bangladesh. Droughts, however, are not veryfrequent and may happen once in ten years, the last in1979. On the other hand, floods and cyclones are annualphenomena and take a huge toll of lives and properties.Hence, floods and cyclones have tremendous effects on theeconomy of the country.

(c) Spill from the main river systems and fromsmaller rivers, including tributaries of the mainriver systems;

(d) Drainage congestion due to flat topography, floodplain developments and tidal influence;

(e) Severe flood when the peaks of the major riverscoincide.

Each year flood affects Bangladesh, The magnitudeof flood, however, varies. In some years severe floodengulfs one-third to two-thirds of the country with devas-tating effect. Crops are damaged, homesteads, roads,bridges and culverts along with other development infra-structure are washed away. Loss of lives can be quitesizable. In the post-flood period millions starve because offood shortages and loss of means of livelihood. Conse-quences of the great floods of 1987 and 1988 are givenbelow:

1. Floods

Of all disasters, cyclones and floods are the mostdevastating in magnitude and intensity. In normal yearswhen rainfall within and in the catchment areas of the riversystems is not excessive or when the peak flood times ofthe river systems do not coincide, nearly 20 per cent of thecountry is engulfed by flood while in the years of severeflood, 55-60 per cent of the country goes under water.

The major causes of flood in Bangladesh have beenas follows:

(a) Excess rainfall within and in the catchment areasof the river systems;

(b) Flat topography and low elevation of the coun-try;

Table 13. Consequences of 1987 and 1988 floods inBangladesh

1987 1988

1. No. of districts affected

2. No. of Upaala affected

3. No. of people affected

4. Crops damaged (acres)

5. No. of houses damaged

6. No. of human lives lost

7. No. of livestock lost

8. No. of poultry lost

9. No- of educational institutes damaged

10. Roads Damaged (Miles)

11. No. of bridge/culvert damaged

12. Embankments damaged (Miles)

50347

24 823 3764 856 5221 940 676

1470

34162335 595

3 738

24158

3 429

1272

53346

35 732 3365 545 496

3 296 3451517

297 986

410 000

9 09996531

2 397

2 657

Joint Secretary, Ministry of Relief, Government of Bangladesh, Dhaka.

noPart Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

2. Cyclones and storm surge

The Bay of Bengal is in the south of Bangladesh.Depressions form in the Bay during pre-monsoon, monsoonand post-monsoon periods, leading to cyclones. Thesecyclones are associated with heavy rainfall, gusty wind

and sometimes with stoim surges. Severe cyclones causeheavy damage to life and property of the affected people.Storm surges have been responsible for terrible loss oflives in the past. Bangladesh is hit by cyclones each year.In some years severe cyclones affect the country. Theconsequences of cyclones of some years are given below:

Table 14. Consequences of three major cyclones in Bangladesh, 1970-1989

1. No. of districts affected

2. No. of Upazila affected

3. No. of population affected

4. Area affected (in sq. miles)

5. Crops damaged (in acres)

6. No. of houses damaged

7. No. of human lives lost

8. No. of livestock lost

9. No. of poultry lost

10. No. of educational institutes damaged

1970

5

99

600000

9 056

1100000

3 350000

250000

470000

N.A.

N.A.

1985

9

30

167 500

720

126090

17 230

10000

602

1428

N.A.

1989

33

71

346087

N.A.

77 341

32181

573

45

2020

N.A.

C. Forecasting and warning

An organization has been built up to collect on a day-to-day basis, from April to October, data on water level inthe rivers and its impact on the basins. The flood forecast-ing office has 35 field centres to collectdata and is equippedwith computers. It is being further strengthened withforeign assistance.

Elaborate and co-ordinated arrangements to predictintensity and course of a cyclone have been developedsince 1970. The Meteorological offices have beenstrengthened, scope for gathering data from neighbouringcountries has been created and, above all, a space researchcentre has been put to use to collect satellite imagery on thecyclone and its movement. Electronic media are widelyand extensively used to disseminate warning well in time.

D. Disaster prevention and preparedness

Bangladesh, being a flat country with very low el-evation from the mean sea-level, has very limited alterna-tive measures for flood control. It has been establishedthrough decades of experience that the best and the most

suitable measure for flood control in Bangladesh would beconstruction of embankments along river banks and main-tenance of the drainage capability of the rives and theirtributaries. Dredging of the rivers is also useful, thoughthis would be very expensive. Re-excavation of rivers/canals by manual labour is more economic since the coun-try has cheap labour.

The planners over the decades have sought to reducethe impact of floods by providing protection to populatedareas through protection measures such as afforestation,changed land use patterns or attempted reduction of sus-ceptibility to damage by flood forecasting, flood warning,evacuation, and construction of roads and highways abovethe flood level. They have also worked to reduce thehuman distress through emergency relief and rehabilita-tion.

Over the decades millions of taka have been investedto construct over 6 000 km of embankments, improving thecarrying capacity of 4 300 km of drainage channels. Someareas have thus been protected against flood.

The Government plays a key role in disaster mitiga-tion in Bangladesh. All the key ministries are involved.

II. Impact of natural disasters on Bangladesh 111

As such the Government has issued "Standing Orders forFlood" detailing the functions and responsibilities of dif-ferent ministries, field offices and local Government insti-tutions. The instructions cover the functions and responsi-bilities for emergency relief as well as rehabilitation.

As in the case of flood disaster management, most ofthe key ministries as well as field offices, local Govern-ment institutions in the affected areas are involved inmitigating disaster. The Government has issued "Emer-gency Standing Orders for Cyclone" detailing the respon-sibilities of the concerned functionaries and offices. Theemphasis is obviously on reducing loss of life and propertyby issuing timely warnings and by evacuation if need be,and taking preventive measures against disease and fam-ine.

In collaboration with the International Red Cross andRed Crescent Societies, the Government of Bangladeshhas been running a Cyclone Preparedness Programmesince 1972. The programme has installed wireless com-munications in 24 sub-districts of 12 districts which havebeen identified to be more prone to cyclone disaster andhas raised a volunteer corps of over 20 000 volunteers toensure dissemination of warnings, to arrange for evacuation,provide basis food and medicine, and also assist in post-disaster survey of loss and damages

Immediately after the disaster, arrangements are re-quired to provide food and employment to the affectedpeople. The Ministry of Relief as well as NGOs take up thefollowing: relief operations in the area; food for distressedwomen; wheat/rice as food for work to get rural roadsrepaired.

According to estimates, over 7 million people live inthe cyclone belt. Over 98 per cent of the people of the beltlive in thatched houses which can hardly withstand cy-clones of severe intensity. Moreover, everything includ-ing the homestead may be washed away by the stormsurge. For safety of the evacuated people, therefore, alarge number of shelters were built for them and theircattle. With foreign assistance, about 300 shelters and twothousand "killers" - earth mounds - have been constructedfor over 30 000 people. Although inadequate, they are stilluseful. More such shelters will contribute to saving morelives.

Severe cyclones lash the coastal belt. Storm surge,too, hits the area often. It is thought that a forest belt alongthe coast could contribute to minimizing loss of life andproperty. Hence the mangrove afforestation project hasbeen taken up. Implementation of the project has beencontinuing. To protect the coastal belt from storm surge,the Water Development Board, with foreign assistance,

has also constructed embankments along the coast. Thishas so far resisted incoming storm surge to a great extentand thus saved lives and property inland.

Regular drills to increase the effectiveness of thevoluntary corps have not been taking place. Besides,owing to the short time gap between warning and dissemi-nation, evacuation of people and their cattle becomesdifficult, if not impossible. The number of shelters withaccommodation for a limited few cannot really providesafety for millions. The need for an emergency relief andrehabilitation fund is hardly ever met adequately. Thevulnerable groups remain vulnerable and get much lessassistance then they deserve.

E. Disaster relief

Measures include relief and rehabilitation of thedistressed people. To formulate mitigation measures in-volving relief and rehabilitation, a National Disaster Councilhas been set up with the President as its chairman. Theobjective of setting up the Council is to assess the overallsituation regarding disasters and initiate short, mediumand long-term measures to mitigate suffering and manageany disaster crisis. In addition, there is a National Co-ordination Committee for Flood Emergency headed by theMinister of Relief with other key ministries represented onthe Committee. The Council and the Committee are as-sisted by the flood control and monitoring cell set up in thePublic Division of the President's Secretariat and the Min-istry of Relief. Besides, in the UNDP office in Dhaka, theUnited Nations Inter-Agency Working Group on Disasterswas formed to keep the participants informed of disastersituations and assess the need for external assistance andrequest for the same.

The colossal loss of life and property in the flood of1988 once again necessitated international efforts to con-tain floods in Bangladesh. The World Bank has come upwith a Flood Action Plan composed of 26 programmesinvolving studies on community-based flood preparedness,flood fighting, etc. and some pilot projects. It is expectedthat the programmed activities will be completed by 1995.The success of the programme will further strengthen themechanisms for coping with flood disaster in the country.

F. Community response to disasters

In Bangladesh, rural communities are not, generallyspeaking, well organized, although attempts are now beingmade to organize them institutionally. Clubs are springingup in rural villages, co-operatives of landless or land-owning farmers are being formed, and, above all, authorityis being given to village councils to ensure people's par-

112Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

ticipation in development and mitigation efforts. In pastyears, involvement of the large rural community in mitiga-tion efforts has obviously been sporadic and isolated.Community participation has been mostly marked duringdisaster, to a limited extent in the post flood/cyclonerehabilitation, but significantly not much or at all duringthe pre-disaster preparatory stage.

During the severe flood of 1988 the wealthy came tothe assistance of the affected people with food, clothingand medicines in the camps established either by the localcommunities themselves or by the administration. Well-to-do families made significant contributions to mitigatehunger in many camps, sometimes on a sustained basis fordays.

Political parties organized their workers to collectand distribute relief goods to the affected people all overthe country even in remote areas. They also helped inimproving the sanitary situation in the camps, in distribut-ing water-purification tablets or medicines to counter wa-ter-borne diseases.

The students and industrial workers, mainly in theaffected urban or semi-urban areas, have, like the politicalworkers, got involved in mitigation efforts. They raised theconsciousness of the nation and raised funds for reliefwork in the distressed areas.

At several places where breaches in the embank-ments threatened the properties and lives of the people, theentire community, young and old, including women andchildren, did their best to plug the breaches and save thecommunity.

The rural population have very limited access toinstitutional credit. In the post-disaster period with their

means of subsistence partially damaged or totally de-stroyed, the rural communities' need for credit is mostlymet by friends, relatives, neighbours or village leaders.The have-nots do pay a price for such credit. But wheresurvival is at stake, no price can be considered high.

It is true that public participation in disaster mitiga-tion is the most important coping mechanism, if this can beeffectively deployed. The areas where the rural commu-nity could be fruitfully utilized are: (i) creation of aware-ness about flood and cyclone or any other disaster; (ii)formation and training of groups for disaster management;(iii) mobilization of local flood-fighting groups; (iv)evacuation; (v) co-ordination of relief and rehabilitation.To ensure people's participation in these areas, it is neces-sary to localize disaster management and develop an insti-tutional framework.

In Bangladesh, as already stated, emphasis is beinggiven to decentralize mitigation functions to the locallevel, so as to enable the community at the grassroots levelto take care of any disaster.with the central authorityproviding guidance, training and resources. The sub-district councils along with union and local organizationscan play a vital role in Bangladesh. These local Govern-ment units should locally plan and coordinate, procureresources to build up stocks of relief goods and an emer-gency relief fund. They will install their own local warn-ing systems (for flood or cyclone), arrange for dissemina-tion of warnings, mobilize volunteers for flood fighting,evacuation and distribution of emergency relief, andfinally rehabilitation. There is a programme to recruit25 000 volunteers for management of flood disasters totake care of the affected people from pre-disaster preparationto post-disaster rehabilitation.

III. Atmospheric disasters in China and countermeasures 113

i n . ATMOSPHERIC DISASTERS IN CHINA AND COUNTERMEASURES

by Wang Ang-Sheng, Fan Zhen and Xin Miao-Xin1

A. Introduction

China is one of the countries which frequently suffersfrom natural disasters. High economic losses caused bynatural disasters every year seriously hinder economicdevelopment. Of all the natural disasters, atmosphericdisasters are the most serious. They occur frequently,affect large areas and cause enormous losses. Therefore, itis a very urgent task to learn more about atmosphericdisasters and undertake further studies on how to forecastand prevent them effectively. In this paper, research workon some major atmospheric disasters is presented andsome countermeasures on how to forecast, prevent andreduce them are also mentioned.

B. Natural disasters and prevention measures

1. Heavy rainfall and floods

The heavy rain and ensuing flooding and waterloggingare major natural hazards experienced in China. Themaximum 24-hour precipitation exceeds 400 mm, both inplain and hilly lands. The extremely heavy rainfalls reachingor exceeding 1 000 mm have occurred not only in thecoastal areas but also in the inland, even in the desertregion of China. Therefore China is a country where heavyrain and extremely heavy rain are experienced frequently.There were many great disasters due to flooding andwaterlogging caused by heavy rains in the history of China.

According to the statistics from 1951 to 1980, SouthChina, the Hunan and Hubei Basin, the east coastal area,the Huaihe valley and Haihe valley were areas in whichflooding and waterlogging appeared once or twice in twoor three years on the average. The other districts fre-quently affected by flooding and waterlogging were in theLiaobe River, Yellow River and Hanshui River areas. Themost famous and heavy disasters of flooding and waterloggingin the history of China were experienced in those areas.

At least 147 larger floods and waterlogging eventsoccurred during the last 2188 years in the Yellow Rivervalley and 187 events during the last 1889 years in theChangjiang River valley.

Theextremely heavy rainfall, flooding and waterloggingcausing disaster in Henan Province were caused by ty-phoon No. 7503 in August 1975. Its hourly and otherduration rainfalls; even three-day precipitation, were thehighest in the meteorological record of the interior ofChina. The amount of rainfall that fell in 3 days was above1 600 mm, causing two large type and ten middle or smalltype reservoirs to burst at the same time. The death tollmay have reached over 100 000. It was the second largestdisaster, causing the highest number of deaths, after theTangshan earthquake.

The extremely heavy rainfall next in magnitude tothat of August 1975, occurred at the foot of TaihangMountain in the first 10 days of August 1963. It causedextremely widespread flooding in Haihe River valley where3.8 million ha of cultivated land were waterlogged, caus-ing heavy losses to crops and to the economy (Tian Sheng-Chun and others, 1990).

2. Prevention measures for heavy rain and flood loss

The accurate forecast of heavy rain is a basis fordisaster reduction. Accurate forecasts minimize heavylosses. For example, at the beginning of the last 10 days ofJuly 1983 the Department of Meteorology made a middle-range forecast that there would be a middle to heavy rain,and heavy rain at Ankang area from the 27th to 29th.Again on 26th they made a forecast that the heavy rainfallwould appear at southern Shanxi Province and northernSichuan Province with local extremely heavy rain. On the31st, based upon both meteorological and hydrologicalforecasts, the executive branch of Shanxi government madea resolute decision that the citizens in Ankang City were tobe evacuated quickly. Most of 10 000 people in the citywere evacuated to a safe place, avoiding unnecessaryinjuries and large loss of lives, and minimizing economiclosses.

The above case confirms that forecasting for heavyrain can play an important part in protection from resultingflood disaster. For reduction of and protection from flooding,some suggestions are as follows:

All of the Research Committee of Natural Disaster, Academia Sinica, Beijing, China.

114Part Three; National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

The studies for ascertaining the regularity of floodand waterlogging for each main river must be intensified;basic studies must be undertaken on the development andoccurrence of heavy rain; advanced technologies such assatellite and radar in observing the occurrence and devel-opment of clouds that result in heavy rainfall and floodingmust be adopted; advanced technologies in communicationshould be utilized to guarantee each department can getany necessary information on heavy rainfall and floodingcorrectly and quickly as early as possible.

C. Typhoons and loss prevention measures

1. Typhoon disasters in China

The north-western Pacific, that is the area east ofChina, is the sea area where the largest number of typhoonsoccur. Every year, typhoons occurring in this area make upabout one-third of the total number of typhoons all aroundthe world. China is affected most heavily and has thelargest number of landing typhoons in the world.

Typhoons, the weather systems that cause very seri-ous disasters, also produce the most severe rain. The worldrecords of precipitation of duration from 12 hours to 7days, as well as the highest records in China, were allcaused by typhoons/tropical cyclones. Table 15 shows theworld records and the highest records of rainfall in 17coastal or inland provinces and cities in China in 24 hoursand 3 days and the weather systems causing them (Cai Ze-Yi, 1990).

In addition to causing the heaviest rains in manycities and provinces, typhoon-based rainfall also makes upa great part of the total rainfall received in China insummer months. The ratio of the precipitation caused bytyphoons in July, August and September is always over 50per cent of the total annual rainfall in coastal areas such assouth Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces. Thehighest value recorded was 76 per cent in east Guangdongand the percentage decreases with the distance inland fromthe sea. The average monthly rainfall in China generallyshows one maximum in a year such as in Beijing, Moreover,there are always two maximums in southern and south-eastern coastal areas, such as Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Fuzhou,the other high monthly rainfall usually appearing in Au-gust or September and, caused by typhoons (Cai Ze-Yi,1990).

2. Preventive measures to reduce typhoon effects

The measures to prevent and reduce the effects ofdisasters caused by typhoons must be based on accurateweather prediction which means to predict the position and

strength of the typhoon accurately 24-27 hours ahead.This will offer opportunities for the government to selectappropriate defensive measures. Correct prediction canbeing great benefits. For example, typhoon No. 8607landed at the east part of Guangdong Province on 11 July1986. About 72 hours before its landing, an accurateprediction had been made by meteorological observatoriesof Fujian Province and Guangdong Province. The govern-ments issued orders in time to take necessary measures forreducing the effects of the disaster. It was estimated thatthe reduction in economic loss was over one billion yuan,in Guangdong Province alone.

Two measures can be adopted in order to increase theaccuracy of the prediction. One is to improve the observationto give the right position and intensity of the typhoon.These are very important for accurate prediction. Anotheris to develop scientific research on typhoons, especially onthose with abnormal character. The research should bemainly concentrated on their moving direction and speed,intensity and mechanism of rapid weather change. Basedon the research, effective methods of prediction are to befound to reduce effects of disasters caused by typhoons.

D. Hail

1. Disasters due to hail in China

China is a country which suffers frequently fromdisasters due to hail. Hail disasters have caused economiclosses ranging from several hundred million to more thana billion yuan (RMB) on the average per year. In 1987more than 2 000 counties in China were hit by hailstormswhich damaged a total area of over 5 million ha, anddestroyed houses with a total of 1,08 million rooms, andinjured more than 10 000, killing about 400 persons, andcausing a direct economic loss of over 1.1 billion yuan(RMB) (Wang Ang-sheng, 1990b; Huang Mei-Yuan andWang Ang-sheng, 1980).

In China hailstones fall more on mountain areas thanon plains, inland and coastal areas. There are as many as33.7 days with hail every year in Heihe, Tibet, and about25.3 days in Zhaduo, Qinghai Province. Though they fallfrequently, these hailstones do not bring about much damagebecause of their small size and sparse population in thosevast territories.

There are more hail falls, averaging a few daysyearly, on Yinshan, Taihangshan, Tianshan, and Chang-baishan mountain areas as well as Yungui Plateau, wherehailstorms are more frequent and disastrous.

People have already discovered some ways to reducehail hazards in the long-time struggle against hailstones.

Table 15. The maximum recorded rainfall in 17 provincesand cities in eastern and central China

No. Province Site DateRain (mm)

24-hr 3 daysWeather System

la

lb

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

Taiwan

Taiwan

Henan

Hebei

Guangdong

Hainan

Fujtan

Hubei

Hiangsu

Guangxi

Liaoning

Shanghai

Zhejiang

Anhui

Shandong

Jiangxi

Beijing

Hunan

La Reunion Island-Highest

(South Indian Ocean)

* Rainfall of one day** Rainfall of five days

Xinliao

Paishin

Linzhuang

Zhangmo

Shantou

Ledong

Gaoshan

Duzhenwan

Dafengzha

Laohutan

Heigou

Tangqiao

Shilin

Zilaiqiao

Shifuzi

Dongxiang

Zaoshulin

Meicheng

170ctoberl967

11 Sepiemberl963

7 August 1965

4 August 1963

30 May 1977

13 June 1974

21 June 1974

8 August 1975

21 August 1965

11 July 1960

7 August 1921

21 August 1977

1 August 1956

17 August 1975

12 August 1975

17 August 1953

27 July 1921

26 August 1955

15 Match 1952

1672

1248

1060

950

884

783 *

733

685

673

658

657

591

564

593

499

499

479

423

1870

2749

1684

1605

1458

1461 **

912 *

765

685

917

1036

794

592

688

809

572

553

518

553

3240

Typhoon Carla (6718)

Typhoon Gloria (6312)

Typhoon Nina (7503)

SW vortex

Low-trough

Typhoon Dinah (7406)

Vortex

Typhoon Mina (7503)

Typhoon Mary (6513)

Vortex

Typhoon Opal (6208)

Typhoon Amy (7707)

Typhoon Wanda (5612)

Typhoon Ora (7504)

Tphoon Lucy (7412)

Typhoon Nina (5310)

Typhoon Rita f72O3)

Typhoon Iris (5519)

Tropical cyclone

and ci

1S

B»

c2

a>8"8-

116Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

In China hailclouds are usually identified by radar andlightning characteristics. On the basis of considerableresearch undertaken on the subject, 85-90 per cent accu-racy has been gained using radar in distinguishing hailcloudsby size, strength and characteristics of echo waves as wellas correlation between echo waves and temperature. Sci-entists in China have also made good efforts in distinguishinghailclouds by using lightning information and by usingacoustical principles.

Having worked for a long time scientists finallydiscovered a scientific method called artificial hail sup-pression, which aims at reducing the size of hailstones orchanging hail embryos to raindrops by altering the hailgrowing process, in order to prevent hail damage. In aperiod of more than 20 years significant achievementshave been made in artificial hail suppression under theleadership of authorities at all levels and with the directleadership and participation of scientists in the Institute ofAtmospheric Physics, Academia Sinica and the LanzhouInstitute of Plateau Atmospheric Physics. The artificialhail suppression system, characteristic of China, has beengradually set up and it has been helpful in contributing tohail disaster reduction, which has been very welcome bythe people in hail hazard prone areas. In some areas about50 per cent of the hail hazard has been reduced by artificialhail suppression (Huang Mei- Yuan and Wang Ang-Sheng,1980).

In addition to the above, thunderstorms, blizzardwinds, strong wind storms and tornado storms are alsovery dangerous natural disasters, usually causing terribleresults (Wang Ang-Sheng, 1990a).

E. Conclusion

Regulations and distribution features of some majoratmospheric disasters in China, and loss prevention meas-ures taken respectively were described. Although it maynot be possible to control or prevent some disasters fromtaking place because of limited scientific and technologi-cal knowledge at present, the losses caused by them can bereduced as long as policies, mechanisms and regulationsare well prepared and accurate forecasts of time and intensityare made. Every precautionary measure for fighting againstdisasters and rescue work will be required.

References

Cai Ze-Yi, 1990. Calamities caused by Tropical Storms inChina. In Natural Disasters in China. Beijing,Academic Book and Periodical Press.

Huang Mei-Yuan and Wang Ang-Sheng, 1980. The Intro-duction of Hail Suppression. Beijing, ScientificPress.

Tian Sheng-Chun and others, 1990. The heavy rainfall anddisaster of flooding and waterlogging in China. InNatural Disasters in China. Beijing, Academic Bookand Periodical Press.

Wang Ang-Sheng, 1990a. Atmospheric Storm and itsDisasters in China. In Natural Disasters in China.Beijing, Academic Book and Periodical Press.

Wang Ang-Sheng, 1990b. Hail Damage in China. InNatural Disasters in China. Beijing, Academic Bookand Periodical Press.

IV. Typhoon disasters and preventive measures in China 117

IV. TYPHOON DISASTERS AND PREVENTIVE MEASURES IN CHINA

by Fan YongXiang1

Typhoons and tropical cyclones are among the mostsevere natural disasters in China. The characteristics andcauses of typhoon disasters are analyzed below and asummary assessment is given of the country's capability intyphoon monitoring, forecasting, and warning dissemina-tion. Finally, preventive measures against typhoon disas-ters are proposed.

A. Introduction

The large territory of China lies over three climaticzones: tropical, extratropical and cold from south to north.East China faces the Pacific Ocean, and the Qinghai-TibetPlateau — known as "the roof of the world" — is locationin west China. Monsoon and strong continental climatesare distinctive features of China with complicated geogra-phy, variable climate and changeable weather. Variousnatural disasters have frequently been experienced in China.Relatively weak economic strength, multitudinous popu-lation, inadequate storage of materials, low transport capa-bility, economic activities dependent on natural factorsand low capability in disaster prevention and disastersupport, place China among countries suffering most fromnatural disasters in the world. Many different types ofnatural disasters, such as meteorological, oceanic, flood,geologic, seismic, plant diseases and pests and forest firesare all experienced in China.

Meteorological disasters are the most severe of natu-ral disasters. Among the 10 major types of natural disas-ters listed by the United Nations (table 16), about eighttypes are of a meteorological nature, having caused up to62.9 per cent of the total number of deaths brought aboutby natural disasters. Typhoons caused the highest deathtoll, 199 000 people, 41.1 per cent of the total deaths.Figure VI shows the frequency distribution of naturaldisasters in selected Asian countries over the period 1964-1986. The highest percentage, over 62 per cent, was due tometeorological disasters, typhoons causing 32 per cent oftotal deaths.

In China, the meteorological disasters were causedmainly by typhoons/tropical cyclones, heavy rain resultingin floods and waterlogging, drought, heat waves and dry-hot wind, cold and freezing, severe convection (such asthunderstorms, hail and tornado), continuous rain and thickfog (table 17). Meteorological disasters have always broughtgreat destruction of lives and property and socio-economicproblems in China. During the period 1951 to 1988 onaverage 25 major meteorological disasters were experi-enced annually in China (table 18). In general, every yearabout 40-47 million hectares of fields have been affectedand about 20 million hectares of crops were damaged(causing a reduction of more than 30 per cent of total cropproduction) and 20 billion kg of grains were lost. About 3million houses were destroyed. These two categories ofdamages alone caused about 10 billion yuan of directeconomic loss every year. More than 200 million peoplewere affected and 5 000-10 000 people were killed eachyear. The amount of total damages would become muchmore severe, if all the losses to stock raising, fishing,forest, industry, communication, transport and navigation,caused by meteorological disasters, were counted.

Table 16. Ten major types of natural disaster andlives lost from 1947 to 1980

No.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Natural Disaster

Tropical cyclone (Typhoon, Hurricane)

Earthquake

Hood

Thunderstorm, Tornado

Snowstorm

Volcanic eruption

Heat wave

Snowslide

Landslide

Storm surge, tide tsunami

Persons Dead (million)

49.9

45.0

19.4

2.91.0

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.5

State Meteorological Administration, People's Republic of China.

118Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

Table 17. Meteorological disasters

1. Typhoon

Tropical cyclone

2. Rainstorm

Heavy rain

3. DroughtHeat waveDry-hot wind

4. Cold

Freezing

5. Storm squall

Thunderstorm

Tornado

6. Continuous rain

7. Thick fog

rainstorm

strong gale

floods

waterlogging

disease pestdesertificationforest fire

chilling damage

frost bite

freezing rain

snow storm

cool summer damage

cool-wind injury

strong wind

local strong wind

local heavy rain

hail storm

disease pest

fog lightning

pollution

flood

stotm surge

storm tide

landslide

debris flow

avalanche

local flood

landslide

debris flow

avalanche

agriculture

transport

industry

navigation

landslide

debris flow

avalanche

SOCIO-ECONOMICDISASTER

Agriculture

Industry

Transport

Navigation

Water-conservancy

Persons Dead

and Injured

FLOOD26% I

I

(

Uflp

OTHERS25%

— — ^ TYPHOON

\ - ' : i V^S^ DROUGHT

_——-H / EARTHQUAKE^^X^ 13%

Figure VI. Fequency distribution of natural disasters in selected Asian countries over theperiod 1964-1986

IV. Typhoon disasters and preventive measures in China 119

Table 18. Occurrence of major meteorological disasters experienced in China by type(average per year 1951 to 1988)

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

Total

Average

annual

Landfall typhoon

3

9

7

54

7

57

6

8

11

7

7

7

88

11

5

5

5

12

6

9

11

7

5

5

6

5

9

8

4

5

8

9

6

5

6

106

2.8

Rainstorm flood

3

53

5

3

8

3

54

9

6

6

10

9

7

6

4

55

6

10

5

85

7

7

4

5

6

6

6

7

4

55

5

7

8

222

5.8

Drought

9

4

8

3

8

5

7

6

6

7

4

10

10

57

10

8

6

6

8

9

10

7

9

11

9

11

10

9

9

6

3

6

57

10

8

9

285

7.5

Dry-hot

wind

2

2

2

0

2

1

1

1

1

3

3

3

0

1

3

1

3

3

1

1

3

2

1

3

31

1

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

1

1

1

0

59

1.6

Freezing

lack

lack

2

2

2

2

3

3

2

2

2

3

2

32

3

2

3

2

2

7

2

7

3

2

6

3

3

2

3

5

2

3

2

3

6

3

106

2.8

120Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

The disasters brought upon by typhoons not onlyplay a prominent role among meteorological disasters inChina, but also cause the greatest number of deaths amongthe world's natural disasters. Table 19 presents an esti-mate of typhoon disasters sustained by some members ofthe Typhoon Committee recently. Every year typhoonsbring about severe economic damage and losses of lives onthe continent and the adjacent sea area of China.

The characteristics and causes of typhoon disasterwill be analyzed in this paper. A summary introductionand assessment of monitoring measures, forecasting tech-niques and typhoon warning dissemination are presented.Finally, preventive measures for typhoon disaster reduc-tion are proposed.

B. Characteristics and causes of typhoon disasters

Typhoons form in warm seas and have a vortex withthe lowest atmospheric pressure at the centre. The rotationof a typhoon or cyclone is anticlockwise in the northernhemisphere, and clockwise in the southern hemisphere.The maximum sustained wind near the typhoon's centre isan indication of its intensity. The intensity of the tropicalcyclone is classified as follows in accordance with WMOGuide to Marine Meteorological Services (WMO - No.

471) and WMO Manual on Marine Meteorological Serv-ices (WMO - No. 558):

(1) Tropical depression: maximum wind speed isup to 17.2 m/s and less than 8 wind force (Beaufort Scale);

(2) Tropical storm: maximum wind speed is 17.2-24.4 m/s and 8-9 wind force (Beaufort Scale);

(3) Severe tropical storm: maximum wind speed is24.5-32.6 m/s and 10-11 wind force (Beaufort Scale);

(4) Typhoon: maximum wind speed is 32.7 m/s ormore; and 12 wind force (Beaufort Scale).

All of the above are generally called "Tropical Cy-clones". In China the international terminology and clas-sifications of tropical cyclones were adopted with effectfrom 1 January 1989, but "Tropical Cyclone" is traditionallycalled "Typhoon" in China.

There were 28.3 tropical cyclones with maximumsustained wind speeds of more than 17.1 m/s on an annualaverage from 1949 to 1985 over the western North Pacific.Some of the strongest typhoons, with wind speeds of up to110 m/s and with the largest size (the areal extent of windsabove gale force or 17 m/s), occurred over the westernNorth Pacific.

Table 19. Typhoon disasters sustained by some members of the Typhoon Committee (1985-1988)

China

Hong Kong

Japan

Malaysia

Philippines

Thailand

Republic of Korea

Viet Nam

Total

Typhoon

number

22

9

16

4

20

4

11

8

Dead

1942

9

116

2028

14

583

1432

6 124

Persons

missing

52

2

258

!0145

467

Injured

13 896

103

666

2111

303

2704

19 783

Economic loss

(in million $US)

1 837.68

2.04

208.80

743.57

5.07

386.70

31.00

3 214.86

IV. Typhoon disasters and preventive measures in China 121

Thft boundflittt And i w n u ihtMMn on

Map 3. Inland typhoon tracks affecting North China

122Pan Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

Although the highest wind speed of 200-250 m/sappears in the tornado, its size is less than 1 km. The extentof wind force 12 Beaufort Scale near a typhoon centre hasa diameter of 160 km on average and the extent of windforce 7 Beaufort Scale has a diameter of 650 km. Somesuper-size typhoons have a diameter of 1 600 km. Thelifespan of a tornado is usually less than an hour, whereasthe lifespan of a typhoon or tropical storm is 5-9 days. Theforward speed of a typhoon is about 20 km/hr, and distancetravelled reaches about 4 000 km or longer affecting largeareas. Some characteristics of typhoon disasters, due tospecial geographic and circulation conditions in China, areas follows:

1. High frequency

About 7 tropical cyclones with maximum winds ofover 17.2 m/s in China each year, and annually about 20tropical cyclones on the average, appear on the adjacentsea areas. China is one of the countries most seriouslyaffected by tropical storms in the world.

2. Period of effect

The typhoons occur in China during the period fromMay to December, and the period of typhoons affecting theadjacent sea areas is almost from January to December.Possibly China is the country which is under typhooneffect for the longest period annually in the world.

3. Areas affected

The data of 32 years (1949-1980) show that typhoonsmay occur anywhere along China's coastline and the adjacentsea areas. In general, a tropical storm rapidly dissipatesafter landing. Some typhoons often maintain their circu-lation for 2-3 days, and do not dissipate quickly when theymove inland. China's inland area, with the exception ofthe north-west portion, is also within the effective range oftropical storms. Most areas of China are exposed totyphoon hazards (map 3).

4. Burstability

The burstability of typhoons along China's coastalareas shows mainly three aspects, namely: violent winds,rainstorm and storm surge. Maximum wind speeds mayreach up to 50-60 m/s, which can capsize large ships,destroy houses and uproot trees in a short time. The datafor 27 years (1953-1979) show that the rainstorms (over400 mm per day) caused by typhoons are mainly experiencedin the coastal areas (map 4). These heavy rainfalls mayresult in flash floods, destruction to reservoirs, waterlogging,landslides, debris-flow and avalanches within 48 hours.

The storm surge also often causes catastrophes within 24hours.

In addition, the burstability of typhoon disaster overChina's inland areas mainly shows the abrupt increase ofrainfall amount. Increasing precipitation is generally over100 mm in 24 hours. Sometimes it even reaches 500-800mm or more per day. More severe hazards often occur inthe region of severe rainstorm and flash floods caused bytyphoons inland. For example, Typhoon Nina landed onthe coast of Fujian province on 4 August 1975, movedinland for two days, weakened to a tropical depression andbecame nearly stationary on 7 August. Typhoon Ninabrought about 1062 mm precipitation in 24 hours, 685 mmin six hours and 189.5 mm in one hour. The maximum totalthree days cumulative rainfall for 5-8 August amounted to1 605 mm atLinzhuang, Henan province. The severity ofthis rainfall resulted in the ruin of two big reservoirs andseveral small reservoirs and caused a devastating flood,destroying 102 km of the Beijing-Guangzhou railway.

5. Swarmability

Typhoons not only bring severe winds, but alsocause a variety of other natural disasters, such as rainstorm,storm surge, high waves, floods, waterlogging, landslides,debris flow, environmental pollution and epidemic disease.

The swarmability of typhoons is that several typhoonsmay strike the same region during a short period. Forexample, three tropical storms continuously struck mostparts of north-east China from 2 to 21 August 1985,causing severe flooding and waterlogging, Hainan prov-ince suffered seriously from four consecutive typhoons inOctober 1989. Three typhoons continuously attacked overZhangjiang province during a period of 10 days from 30August to 8 September 1990, caused serious rainstormsand resulted in severe floods and waterlogging. About 867000 hectares were destroyed or damaged, 264 people werekilled and 1 182 people were injured. About 90 000 houseswere destroyed. One thousand four hundred million kg ofgrains were damaged. The total damage was estimated tobe SUS 748.56 million. Two typhoons landed over Fujianprovince during a period of six days from 24 to 29 June1990, and three typhoons attacked the region again for 20days from 20 August to 8 September 1990. Losses totalledabout SUS 767.5 million.

6. Severity

Heavy financial losses have been sustained by theESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Members every year.There were 59 tropical cyclones, which affected Membersfrom 1985 to 1988, of which 52 caused severe damages.The highest percentage of damages was experienced in

IV. Typhoon disasters and preventive measures in China 123

Tht bamfcifc* aid ramas shown onf * m * <b M tnpfr official •ccaptanco

by tatMted Nations

Map 4. The distribution of severe rainstorm caused by typhoons in China(1953-1979)

China (see table 19) with an estimated economic loss ofabout SUS 1 837 million over this period. A death loll of1 942 people in China was second only to the Philippines.Incomplete statistical data for eight years (1982-1989)show that about 420 people per year on average lost theirlives due to typhoons in China and the annual average(over live years) economic loss reached RMB 3.2 billionyuan (see table 20). In 1990, tropical cyclones caused adeath toll of over 570 people, exceeding theaverage number,and the total economic loss was over RMB 7 billion yuan,three times as much as the average losses for earlier years.

C. Typhoon monitoring and warning

The effects of typhoon disasters may be mitigated, ifthe capability of the monitoring and warning are enhancedand other measures are taken. For example, a correctwarning of three days before landfall over eastern Guangdongprovince was issued, and proper and timely preventive

measures were adopted by the local government. Thou-sands of fishing ships operating in the South China Seareturned in time to the seaports and avoided the strongwinds and high waves without a single one lost.

There are three important links in typhoon warning,i.e., the capability of typhoon monitoring, forecasting andwarning dissemination.

1. Typhoon monitoring

The routine observational network, the radar networkin coastal area and satellite data received are the mainmeasures of typhoon monitoring in China. The first Chi-nese polar orbiting meteorological satellite FY-1A waslaunched on 7 September 1988. It did not fulfill theexpected lifetime, and the system design and equipmentperformance were re-examined. After two years of studyand improvement, the second polar orbiting satellite FY-

124Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

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IV. Typhoon disasters and preventive measures in China 125

IB was launched on 3 September 1990. Up to now (Feb-ruary 1991) FY-IB was still operating normally. Thecloud images from FY-IB are of high resolution useful inanalyzing and monitoring the weather systems and tropicalcyclone activities as well. The main objective of typhoonmonitoring is to establish the centre position, intensity andstructure of the tropical cyclone. Tropical cyclone moni-toring capability of China is expected to further increaseduring the coming Five-Year Plan period.

2. Forecasting and warning

The operation forecast level of China is up to the"official forecast" level of most countries of the world.The mean forecast errors are about 200 km/24 hr and 400km/48 hr. Beginning in 1975, various objective methodssuch as dynamic, statistical-dynamic, and statistical methodshave been put into operation forecasts of tropical cyclonetracks. The "official forecast" is made by experiencedforecasters synthesizing all methods. Although all meth-ods are effective for regular tracks, objective methods arenot available when unusual movements appear. At present,it is a serious problem that all the techniques and methodsmake predictions unreliable for three kinds of unusualtyphoon activities as follows:

(a) Abrupt change of typhoon track

Abrupt change of typhoon track involves two aspectsof the direction and speed of unusual movement. A typhoonrecurves westward suddenly when it moves northwardover the East China Sea. The abrupt northward recurvingand landfall take place when a typhoon is following awestward track in the South China Sea. A typhoon maysuddenly accelerate and decelerate (or loop) when it ismoving normally. Some typhoons with a smooth trajectorysuddenly make a large departure from normal motion,which is difficult to predict. There are about 10 patterns ofunusual tracks in the western North Pacific, but they havea low probability of occurrence.

(b) Abrupt strengthening along adjacent sea areas

Sometimes a tropical cyclone suddenly strengthensto a typhoon intensity along the adjacent sea area andrapidly lands over in China. It is difficult to predict thisphenomenon due to short period of validity.

(c) Abrupt rainstorm

Heavy precipitation of 150 mm per day is generallycaused by a typhoon landing. Sometimes typhoons moveinland and make a long stay there, bringing great rainstormsof up to 1000 mm in 24 hours. It has been very difficult topredict such rainstorms.

3. Warning dissemination

The warning should be disseminated immediately tothe state council and other departments of the governmentvia facsimile, telephone or special report. At the sametime, the warning must be transmitted as soon as possibleto the public and persons on oil drilling platforms and shipsin the adjacent sea areas via TV/radio broadcasts andnewspapers.

The telecommunication of warning disseminationplays an important role in disaster reduction. Telecommu-nications are often cut off in disaster areas due to typhoonlanding, making disaster reduction activities very difficult.The telecommunications capability of China will be ex-panded during the coming Five-Year Plan period.

D. Preventive measures for typhoons

The operations for natural disaster reduction havebeen under the special care of the Communist Party and theGovernment of China since 1949. State leaders showedspecial concern for the development and the moderniza-tion of the Chinese meteorological service. In 1954 anorder was issued to strengthen the prediction, warning andprevention operations for meteorological disasters, and in1955 preventive measures for typhoons were issued. Start-ing in 1956, weather forecasts were openly broadcast. TheNational Meteorological Centre (NMC) was established in1973, with the aim that meteorology should serve thepeople. The meteorological departments at the variouslevels have provided quite accurate and timely weatherforecasts and were highly regarded in the provinces fortheir combat against natural disasters and in the service toindustrial and agricultural production.

In order to further enhance the operational capabilityof typhoon monitoring and prediction, the Typhoon JointPrevention System (TJPS) was established in 1961 toenable data exchange, identification of best tracks, assess-ment of prediction and service, determination of operationalobjective methods, discussion of scientific problems, in-tensive observation and telecommunication etc. The TJPShas been playing an important role in typhoon disasterreduction.

The Chinese Government also actively responded tothe International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction(IDNDR). China's National Committee for IDNDR wasestablished on 12 April 1989. The activities of naturaldisaster reduction have developed extensively in China.

Recommendations for further preventive measuresin China against typhoon disasters are as follows:

126Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

(1) Establishment of united prevention guidance centre:Such a centre could improve coordination of the opera-tions for disaster reduction and would strengthen leadershipand management in handling disaster reduction activities.

(2) Formulation of preventive measures: A goodpreventive measures policy should be formulated on thebasis of various categories of natural disasters, and onvarious classifications and the accuracy of disaster forecasts.Preventive measures for large rivers and reservoirs havebeen adopted by the central flood control department, andothers have been adopted by local governments for typhoon,rainstorm and flood disasters. Moreover, the Governmenthas mobilized and organized the masses to strengthen andrepair the banks and dams and to open the spillway to avoidthe collapse of the dam if the water storage is over thedangerous level. These preventive measures are still in-sufficient and incomplete, however. The disasters causedby typhoons often are not avoided.

(3) Improvement of the capability of monitoring,forecasting, and warning dissemination: Typhoons havethe property of burstability and the track and intensity oftropical cyclones may abruptly change character. There-fore, close monitoring is very important for the unusualmovement of cyclones. If such abrupt changes can bepredicted early enough, track forecasting and disaster miti-gation will be easier. Further development of the potentialof mass media such as TV and radio broadcasts, willenhance the capability of warning dissemination.

(4) Enhancement of the consciousness and knowl-edge of disaster prevention among the people: Still a lot ofpeople have fatalistic attitudes regarding disasters. There-fore, various publicity media should be employed to propagatethe science and technology of disaster occurrence andprevention. A great number of people have been killed bydisasters due to lack of preventive knowledge. To enhancethe consciousness and knowledge of the people on disasterprevention is necessary.

(5) Improvement of legislation: Legislation plays acrucial role especially in combatting, prevention and reliefagainst natural disasters. Existing legislation requirescontinuous improvement.

(6) Establishment of a disaster data collection andprocessing system: Confusion and incomplete disasterdata may result in the lack of a united approach andinadequate scientific management, greatly affecting disas-ter research. Data on disasters must be collected as early aspossible, and the data collection should be reviewed andreorganized, according to a strict programme of collectionand processing. It is very important to establish a disasterdata bank as soon as possible.

(7) Development of international cooperation: Theactive typhoon region in the western North Pacific and theSouth China Sea has no national boundaries. Typhoondisaster reduction is a common objective of all the mem-bers in the ESC AP/WMO Typhoon Committee; the Committeehas developed a number of effective activities on typhoondisaster reduction during the past decade. In particular,two main activities of typhoon experiments which havereceived extensive and successful international cooperation,were:

From 1981 to 1983, the Typhoon Operational Ex-periment (TOPEX) had been developed successfully in thewestern North Pacific. This activity had been proposed byChina and was supported by all the members of the Ty-phoon Committee. It contained a series of operationalcooperation activities, such as intensive observation, in-formation exchange, warning dissemination and assess-ment, research on the movement, intensity and structure oftyphoons. It was a good starting point for internationalcooperation on typhoon prevention in the western NorthPacific and the South China Sea.

Other extensive international cooperation on the ty-phoon experiment was undertaken in the western NorthPacific in August-September 1990. There were threeindependent and cooperative typhoon experiment planswith a view to monitor the physical features of the unusualmovements of typhoons and to investigate the causes ofsuch unusual movement as well as to improve operationaltropical cyclone forecasting.

The ESC AP/WMO Typhoon Committee has recentlyorganized the experiment known as the Special Experi-ment Concerning Typhoon Recurvature and UnusualMovement (SPECTRUM). An experiment undertaken bythe United States known as the Tropical Cyclone MotionExperiment (TCM-90) also took place in the western NorthPacific around the same time as SPECTRUM. An experi-ment with similar objectives (TYPHOON-90) was under-taken in the region by the USSR. A total of six intensiveobservation periods for seven typhoons, amounting to aduration of 15.5 days, was undertaken successfully. Inten-sive observation data involved all the data of upper-airstations, surface S YNOP stations, marine platforms, mete-orological satellite, radar, voluntary observing ships, windprofilers .weather buoys and airplane reconnaissance, whichwill all be exchanged and utilized jointly.

Human beings have an intensely common wish tomitigate disasters. International cooperation on typhoondisaster reduction is hoped to receive a wide perspectiveand better basis.

V. China's strategy to reduce serious natural disasters 127

V. CHINA'S STRATEGY TO REDUCE SERIOUS NATURAL DISASTERS

by Wang Ang-Sheng1

The natural disasters occurring worldwide have causedeconomic losses of several hundred billion dollars anddeath of several million people in the last decade, andnatural disaster reduction has been a common task lyingbefore the peoples of the whole world.

How to establish the strategy for natural disasterreduction is one of the crucial steps for undertaking thetask.

A. General strategy

Human history is a history full of struggle againstnatural disasters, as they have always been a main factorthreatening human life and hindering the development ofsociety. Mankind has just started making progress infighting against natural disasters.

Currently, the rapid development of productive forcesand the great progress of science and technology enablethe society to overcome natural disasters much more ef-fectively. There is still a long way to go however, totransfer the advanced methods and science and technologyinto effective weapons to combat natural disasters in Chinaas well as in the world. Without such strategic transformation,it would be difficult to make significant progress in naturaldisaster reduction.

Today, although people cannot directly prevent seriousnatural hazards from occurring, it is possible to gather aseries of indications before the onset of certain naturaldisasters.

To minimize the losses resulting from natural disastersfull use of advanced science and technology must be madeto gather those indications. It is necessary to organizepeople with a systematic programme and employ existingengineering knowledge for disaster reduction and to bringtheir ability and intelligence into full play under the lead-ership of the Government, so that a quick response can bemade to the predictions, and countermeasures can be takento reduced the adverse consequences of natural hazards.

However, it is very difficult to carry out this generalstrategy, because there exists a large gap in this aspect indifferent countries, especially in the developing countries.Therefore, the general strategy must be improved to makeprogress during the International Decade for Natural Dis-aster Reduction (IDNDR) in combating natural disasters.

The 42nd General Assembly of the United Nationsdecided that the 1990s should be designated as the Interna-tional Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, and manycountries immediately responded to this call and began totake the necessary actions. This strong motivation willprovide favourable conditions for realizing the generalstrategy of disaster reduction.

B. Disaster situation strategy

China is one of the few countries affected withfrequent natural disasters and suffering serious losses. Thedirect economic loss is about 50-60 billion yuan per yeardue to natural disasters and was 52.5 billion yuan in 1989.

The natural disasters in China may be divided intothe following three types:

1. Water/atmosphere disasters: including rainstorm,flood drought, typhoons, storm, thunderstorm, hail, gale,forest fire and forest etc.

2. Geologic disasters: including earthquakes, vol-canic, eruptions, landslides, mud-rock flow, soil erosionand land desertification, etc.

3. Biologic disasters: including pests and diseasesof crops, farmland rat disaster, malignant weeds, red tide,etc.

On average, the above natural disasters cause eco-nomic losses of 40, 10 and less than 10 billion yuan,respectively per year. It is clear that water/atmospheredisasters cause the most serious damage in China.

Research Committee of Natural Disaster, Academia Sinica, Beijing.

128Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

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The aim of disaster situation strategy is to pay greatattention to the severe natural disasters which not onlycause heavy economic losses and loss of lives but alsobring significant social and political problems. For instance,the Changjiang River flood in 1954, the Henan torrentialrain in 1975 and the Tangshan earthquake in 1976 eachcaused a total economic loss of more than 10 billion yuanand tens of thousands of deaths.

From the above, it can be seen that the damageresulting from severe natural disasters is extremely grave.How to minimize such disasters should be regarded as themain problem in the work on natural disaster reduction.

C. Information strategy

Appropriate action to reduce natural disasters can betaken if forecasting can be made as early as possible usingadvanced technology. Responses can then be undertakenrapidly, and strategic decisions will be made in time. Thecollection of indications and forecasts, transmission ofdecisions and feedback of various information arc of greatimportance in the reduction of disasters. Unfortunately, upto the present, there still is an important gap in this field inChina as compared with other countries. Therefore aninformation strategy mustbegiven due consideration promptly.

The reason why natural disasters have caused seriouslosses in Chinese history is that there was no informationavailable before the disaster struck, and a lack of informationafter the disaster occurred. For example, during the Henantorrential rain in 1975, although it had been raining for aslong as 60 hours, the Central Government did not receiveany report until floods had run rampant and it was too lateto fight the disaster and to evacuate the people from flood-stricken areas. Again, in 1976, after the earthquake inTangshan, some survivors drove from Tangshan to Beijingto report the disaster situation to the State Council. Atpresent, information can be transmitted everywhere allover the world in several seconds, but the informationabout the terrible Tangshan earthquake in 1976 was trans-mitted so slowly the everybody was astonished, whichshows that it is very important to establish and carry out aninformation strategy in China.

Implemcntating an information strategy includes:establishing a State System of Disaster Communication(SSDC); aCentral Network of Disaster Information (CNDI);and a Satellite Network of Disaster Monitoring. SSDC isneeded to strengthen the existing telephone network inprovinces, cities, districts, counties and villages; to improvesatellite communication and wireless communication; andto form a disaster network between State Centre for DisasterReduction (SCDR) and country-wide. The Central Networkfor Disaster Reduction (CNDR), on the basis of strength-

ening the existing communication system in ministries andcommissions, departments, bureaus and stations, aims toform serious disaster situation network between SCDRand the ministries and commissions. It is to set up directcommunication channels between SCDR and the StateCouncil, so that the State Council can understand theoccurrence, course and tendency of disaster promptly andmake decisions as early as possible. In addition, varioussatellites for meteorology, oceanography and resources aswell as disaster cruise planes will form a special monitoringsystem for disasters.

The information strategy plans to adopt advancedmethods, to set up multichannel, all-weather and compre-hensive information systems to make good use of existingdisaster networks, to collect the disaster's indications asearly as possible and to make sure the system transmitsinformation properly.

D. Organization strategy

The reduction of natural disasters is a systematicactivity relating to many departments and districts, whichis an important factor affecting politics and the economy.Therefore, an efficient organizational system and goodcommand are the keys to success or failure in naturaldisaster reduction.

Since 1949, the organizational system of the Com-munist Party, Government and army has been an importantforce, and is the first favourable condition. In addition, alot of manpower and material resources have been used toset up a large-scale system for natural disaster reductionwhich includes individual ministries, commissions or bu-reaus of water conservancy, meteorology, oceanography,agriculture, forestry and geology and minerals. This is thesecond favourable condition. Although many natural disastershave been successfully mitigated under the above twoconditions, the serious disasters mentioned above shookthe whole world after all. They indicated that some linksstill needed to be improved in China's organization strat-egy.

As a large country with frequent disasters, Chinadoes not have enough close administrative structures andlongitudinal organizations available for natural disasterreduction. From a practical point of view, the first step isto set up State Centre of Disaster Reduction as the leadingorganization in China. Second, regional or provincialcentres of disaster reduction should be established step bystep. Thus, the central structure based on longitudinal andcross regional linkages at provincial level can be realized.With such a good organization, the information strategycan be applied adequately and the goal of natural disasterreduction can be fulfilled realistically.

V. China's strategy to reduce serious natural disasters 129

The work of SCDR should include three main as-pects: prevention, reduction and relief of disaster withhigh working efficiency. In addition, SCDR must under-stand a disaster situation in a timely way and proposecountermeasures for the State Council's reference. Inorder to fulfill the above tasks better, SCDR must possesthe ability to monitor comprehensively and give warningof disasters and establish relations with the ministries andcommissions under the State Council as well as to makefull use of various materials and data.

The calculation of disaster situation in advance,evaluation and decision system are the most important jobsin the centre, which must be studied and prepared so thatSCDR, on the basis of understanding disaster situation,can put forward countermeasures for the State Council'sreference.

According to the above analysis and research, theauthor believes that setting up the SCDR is the core andkey of realizing Chinese disaster strategy,

References

United Nations General Assembly 1987. Resolution 42/169. Collection of documents and materials forChina International Decade for Natural DisasterReduction.

Sun Guangzhong, Wang Ang-sheng and Zhang Peiyuan,1990. Natural Disasters in China. Academic Bookand Periodical Press.

Cui Naifu, 2 February 1990. Speech on the reception forinternational cooperation on Chinese disaster reduction.

130Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

VI. IDNDR ACTIVITIES IN CHINA AND PROSPECTS FORCOOPERATION IN REDUCING NATURAL DISASTERS

IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

by Chen Hong1

In the following paragraphs a brief account of thestate of natural disasters in China, the Chinese activities incarrying out the International Decade for Natural DisasterReduction and some ideas on strengthening internationalcooperation in reducing natural disasters are presented.

A. Natural disasters in China

China is one of those countries in the world, wherenatural disasters occur frequently and losses are heavy.

The losses caused by water/atmosphere related dis-asters account for about 70 per cent of the entire lossesfrom the natural hazards suffered by the whole country.The losses caused by geologic disasters are about 15 percent of the total. The rest are caused by biologic disasters.During an average ordinary year, 40 to 47 million hectaresof crops fail, 3 million houses collapse, and about 5,000 to10,000 people die of disasters. The direct economic lossesfrom these disasters are around RMB 50 billion yuan(about $US 10 billion).

Among the natural disasters affecting China, floodand waterlogging, drought, earthquake and typhoons arethe most harmful. During the past 40 years, flooding tookplace on average 5.8 times annually in the whole country;regional droughts, 7.5 times; earthquakes over magnitude6 on the Richter scale took place about 5 to 6 times; andtyphoon, 6 to 7 times.

The Government of the People's Republic of Chinahas always paid great attention to natural disasters andplayed an active role in controlling and harnessing them.During the last 40 years, professional institutions specializingin natural disaster monitoring and forecasting, disastercontrol, harnessing and relief work were set up and enlarged;scientific research organizations were established; a seriesof projects for disaster control were set up; great masses ofpeople were organized to struggle against droughts, floods,waterlogging, earthquakes and other natural disasters. Resultsacclaimed by the world have been achieved and rich expe-

riences were accumulated in disaster reduction. Factsshow that by strengthening the organizational leadership,mobilizing the whole people to work together, paying fullattention to advanced science and technology, and theirapplication, the reduction of the losses caused by naturaldisasters could fully be achieved.

B. Brief account of the activities for the InternationalDecade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) in

China

Responding to the suggestion made in the resolutionNo. 42/169 of the United Nations in December 1987, theChinese Government established the China National Com-mittee for the International Decade for Natural DisasterReduction. The Committee comprises 32 Departmentsand Units. Its working office was set in the Ministry ofCivil Affairs.

The guiding principles of the China National Com-mittee are: to consider prevention of natural disasters as itsmain work; and to combine controlling and fighting disasterswith resistance and relief work. It stresses the constructionof disaster control installations and taking preventivemeasures. The Committee requires concerned organiza-tions to step up scientific and technological research onnatural disasters in their activities, push forward and applyenergetically the scientific and technological results alreadyachieved, continuously do research and discover coursesand rules of development of various natural disasters, andpropose countermeasures.

Under the leadership of the State Council, the ChinaNational Committee has carried out a series of practicaland effective activities, which could be divided into threeaspects. Firstly, extensive publicity activities were carriedout to raise awareness of disaster reduction among thewhole population. Secondly, organizations were set up,and plans were formulated. Thirdly, extensive interna-tional cooperation and exchanges were carried out. Since

Office of China National Committee for the International Decads for Natural Disaster Reduction.

VI. IDNDR. activities in China and prospects foi cooperation inreducing natural disasters in Asia and the Pacific 131

the establishment of the China National Committee, theChairman has asked governmental organizations to inten-sify their sense of disaster reduction and has establishedthe guiding principles of undertaking economic construc-tion and disaster reduction work together. Organizationsare also to bring the task of reducing natural disasters intoline with the national economic development plan whenthey map out their long-term and annual economic devel-opment plans, so that the funds for disaster reduction workcould be guaranteed.

The majority of departments and units of the ChinaNational Committee have done lots of work in accordancewith their terms of reference. These include the Ministriesof Agriculture, Water Resources, Forestry, MetallurgicalIndustry, and Construction; National Meteorological Bu-reau, National Bureau of Oceanography, State Seismo-logical Bureau, State Science and Technology Commis-sion, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Chinese Associa-tion of Sciences and Technology. Some have set up theirown disaster reduction organizations and formulated theirplans of work; some have determined their targets inreducing disasters and adopted concrete measures; somehave convened meetings to study the laws of the naturaldisasters and countermeasures against them, and haveactively put forward proposals to the central government.The governments of all provinces, autonomous regionsand cities have also taken an active part in this work.Committees for Disaster Reduction were set up one afteranother in the provinces of Gansu, Hainan, Tibet, Hebeiand in the city of Chengdu. Their disaster reduction planswere mapped out. Some of the provinces have appropri-ated special funds to help carry out disaster reductionprojects and scientific research.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army has alwaysbeen an important factor in dealing with emergencies anddisasters. The troops in the disaster-prone areas haveenlisted the work dealing with emergencies and disastersas subjects in their military training. The organizationsengaging in public relations, news work and publicationshave also played an active role in the work. They havedriven home the importance and significance of disasterreduction to the masses by means of newspapers, films andtelevision programmes. Country-wide activities for theIDNDR involving the whole population are emerging inChina.

During the last two years, talks were held with theUnited Nations Development Programme, Relief and Re-habilitation Administration, World Food Programme, theSecretariat of the International Decade for Disaster Reduc-tion, World Bank and organizations concerned in somebilateral donor countries on cooperation in disaster reduc-tion, and tentative cooperation intentions have emerged

for some programmes. The international cooperation andexchange for disaster reduction are a powerful impetus todisaster reduction activities in China.

Concerned people in China are clearly aware that thework to reduce natural disasters is complicated and re-quires cooperation among different regions, departmentsand trades. Therefore, it is necessary to build up a disasterreduction system which is suitable to China's conditionsand to possess sophisticated and effective technology.Apart from further improving the present systems of dis-aster prevention and fighting, andrelief work of all professionaldepartments, it is also necessary to establish a "nationalcentre for natural disaster reduction" so that it is possibleto use modern and advanced means in monitoring, comput-ing and communication. In this way, the laws of developmentand evolution of the natural disasters can be mastered,scientifically and fully, and countermeasures can be putforward as the basis for decision-making of the StateCouncil.

No efforts will be spared to carry on the activities ofthe International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction soas to bring benefit to future generations and to make duecontribution to the peoples of the Asian and Pacific regionand the world over.

C. Prospects for cooperation in reducing naturaldisasters in the Asian and Pacific Region

Natural disasters are a common threat and challengeto all mankind. China is ready to strengthen cooperationwith all countries of the world, especially countries of theAsian and Pacific region, and to carry out internationalexchanges and cooperation to push forward the activitiesof the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reductionstill further.

Since the founding of the People's Republic of China,the government at all levels has done a large amount ofwork to relieve the losses from natural disasters. Greatefforts have been made to harness the Yellow River, HaiRiver, Huai River and other big rivers, and to construct alarge number of flood control and irrigation projects. Theseeffects have controlled and relieved the damages causedby heavy drought, floods and waterlogging. Tree plantinghas reduced the disastrous effects of soil erosion andsandstorms. The application of the results of scientificresearch have provided modern systems of observation,monitoring and forecasting in meteorology, oceanographyand hydrology as a means to alleviate the damages causedby typhoons, storm surges, heavy rains, floods andwaterlogging. The strengthening of buildings to resistearthquakes combined with research in earthquake fore-

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casts, have played an active part in reducing damages dueto earthquakes. Finally, the damages due to plant diseases,pests and mice have been controlled and harnessed, thusreducing the losses of grain and cotton crops. Togetherwith the great masses of the people, the People's Libera-tion Army speeded up the work on fighting natural disas-ters and the relief work. This series of projects andmeasures have helped China achieve tremendous results inreducing natural di- sasters. The Yellow River, whichused to be called "China's Sorrow" has thoroughly changedfrom the past miserable state. It used to have dike breachestwice in three years. Such dike breaches have not beenexperienced during the summer and autumn flood seasonsfor 40 years. The Chinese people have gained quite a lot ofuseful experiences and lessons in disaster control, fightingand relief work.

In the past 40 years, the Chinese Government hastrained tens of thousand of experts in disaster reductionscience and technology. They are now working in numer-ous research institutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,the research institutions of the ministries and bureaus ofthe state and the universities and colleges. They arecarrying on comprehensive specialized, applied and fun-damental research to lessen the damages from naturaldisasters.

China and some countries in the Asian and Pacificregion have similar natural geological conditions, andhave some common natural disasters, such as drought,heavy rain, flood, waterlogging, typhoons, storm surgeand earthquake. All the countries have undertaken consi-derable work to relieve the damages caused by these natu-ral disasters and have made efforts for exchange of infor-mation and cooperation.

China and a large number of Asian and Pacific coun-tries are developing countries. On disaster reduction, theyface common problems in fund raising, strengthening gov-ernment leadership and applying advanced science andtechnology. Therefore, mutual support and assistance andlearning from each other will be important aspects of

cooperation. Countries of the region with abundant re-sources and advanced technology should play a moreimportant role in the course of international disaster reduc-tion.

The Chinese Government has always paid great at-tention to international exchange and cooperation for dis-aster reduction. Especially in the recent years, it hasestablished exchange and cooperation managements fordisaster reduction with the United Nations organizationsconcerned and many countries.

The Chinese people cherish the assistance of theinternational community in the relief work. They havemade the international assistance most effective bystrengthening the organizational leadership, increasing theworking efficiency in reducing disasters and putting inadditional funds. From 16 to 22 October 1990, Chinainvited 22 envoys and diplomats from the European Com-munity, from United Nations organizations in China, andfrom the countries which had given aid to China's disaster-hit areas in recent years, to make a one-week on-the-spotinspection of the relief work in areas of Zhejiang andFujian provinces hit by typhoons, floods and water- logging.In the new villages, built up after the disasters, the envoysand diplomats saw for themselves the extraordinary differ-ence between the new dwellings which are well-plannedand solid, and the ruins left over after the disasters. Havingvisited the homes and talked with the victims of the naturaldisasters, the diplomats got a clear picture of their presentlife and the measures taken by the government at all levelsafter the disasters. The foreign guests were especiallypleased to learn the fact that the relief work which had beenpromptly and effectively realized was a result of additionalfunds put into the relief work by the government at alllevels. There are broad areas for cooperation on disasterreduction in the Asian and Pacific region. China is readyto step up cooperation with all countries in the Asian andPacific region and with all international organizations fordisaster reduction through bilateral, multilateral or re-gional channels.

VU. Natural disasters: Fiji experience 133

VII. NATURAL DISASTERS : FIJI EXPERIENCE

A. Introduction

Fiji lies between latitudes 15 degrees and 22 degreessouth of the equator and longitudes 176 degrees and 178degrees E. Because of its geographical position, Fiji isaffected by hurricanes and floods and, to a lesser extent,earthquakes, storm surges, droughts and landslides. Theislands are occasionally traversed by tropical cyclonesduring the hurricane season (November-April) with attendentviolent winds, heavy rainfall, landslides, flooding andstorm surge with greatest frequency around January andFebruary. Fiji is hit on average by one cyclone annuallyand a very strong cyclone causing severe damages everyfour to five years. Fiji is within the "Pacific Rim of Fire,"the zone of earthquakes and volcanoes which surroundsthe Pacific Ocean. However there are no volcanoes in Fijiand the number of earthquakes is somewhat less than forthe most active areas around the Pacific. Earthquakes andtidal waves are relatively infrequent but, like hurricanes,may cause major disasters. Hurricane Bebe in 1972 wasthe most destructive hurricane in Fiji's recent history,resulting in 20 deaths, 3 000 homeless, 50 000 on theGovernment's relief distribution scheme and causing dam-age estimated at $20 m. Natural disasters have had asignificant impact on the economy, causing major setbacksto the development process. The Government's EmergencyServices and Relief and Rehabilitation Committees serv-iced by the Ministry of Fijian Affairs and Rural Develop-ment arc responsible for the coordination and implemen-tation of emergency, relief and rehabilitation work in timesof national emergency resulting from natural disasters.

B. Tropical cyclones

1. Disastrous cyclones experienced in Fiji

Tropical cyclones arc the most destructive of allnatural disasters affecting the country and indeed have hada significant impact on the social and economic develop-ment of the country. A feature of cyclones and hurricaneswhich have struck Fiji since independence in 1970 hasbeen the regularity of their visits. From 1980 to 1990, 15tropical cyclones struck the country with different intensitiesranging from moderate to hurricane-force winds. Tracksof tropical cyclones affecting Fiji during this period arcshown in map 5.

The most destructive cyclone of recent times wasCyclone Bebe in 1972, which devastated the whole coun-try. Relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction work went onfor years, which led to the establishment of a full-timeRelief and Rehabilitation Committee. The disaster was amajor setback to the national development programme andit took years to restore the economy to pre-1972 levels.

Current efforts by the Government towards mitigat-ing the effects of tropical cyclones on life and property,such as the recent drawing up of a Building Code and itsenforcement to ensure buildings are cyclone resistant,adoption of appropriate farming methods, systems andpractices and improving public state of readiness, under-line the importance Government attaches to the impact ofthis type of disaster on the country,

2. Cyclone forecasting and warning

The Regional Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre atNadi serviced by the Fij i Meteorological service is responsiblefor the detection and prediction of tropical cyclones for thearea between the equator and 25 degrees South latitude,and from 160 degrees East to 12 degrees West longitude. Itprovides regular forecasts, warning, and advisory servicesfor 13 countries/areas of the region namely Fiji, Tonga,Niue, Northern and Southern Cook Islands, Samoa, Tokelau,Tuvalu, Kiribati, Wallis, Futuna, Vanuatu and SolomonIslands.

To meet this role, the Centre operates on a 24-hourbasis receiving, exchanging and processing vast amountsof meteorological data from both within and outside theregion. Surface and upper air observations, reports fromships, drifting buoys and aircraft, and data from meteoro-logical satellites and radars are analysed every three to sixhours and provide input towards preparation and update ofwarnings and forecasts for marine, aviation and generalpublic use.

The Aeronautical Fixed Telecommunication Network(AFTN) of the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO), telex and telefax are used to disseminate most ofthe products and provide essential channels of communi-cation.

The Centre requires data mainly from the JapaneseGeostationary Satellite, GMS, and the American Geostationary

134Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

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VII. Natural disasters: Fiji experience 135

Observational and Environmental Satellite, GOES-W, tocarry out its work. Unfortunately, the GOES-W satellite,is no longer capable of providing such service due to itsmalfunction some time ago.

Prior to 1986, the Centre could receive only lowresolution imagery at three-hourly intervals from the GMSsatellite. However, towards the middle of 1986 a SouthPacific Severe Storm Detection and Warning System projectwas implemented with assistance from the United StatesAgency for International Development (USAID) and theNational Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) atNadi, which provided the Centre with appropriate hard-ware and software to receive and process high resolutionsatellite data from the same satellite.

Towards the middle of 1988 an enhancement projectwas implemented which has enabled the Centre to receiveStretched VISSR data at hourly or more frequent intervalsfrom the GMS satellite. This basically means that theCentre has now access to very high quality satellite data,available at more frequent intervals than in the past, toutilize for the location and prediction of tropical cyclonesand other weather systems. Consequently its cyclonedetection and warning system has improved significantly.

Hopefully, with the launch of a new GOES satellitewithin in 1992 or 1993, the Nadi Centre will have access tosuch high quality data for the entire area of its responsibil-ity.

The Centre has only one 10 cm wavelength, bothwindfinding and surveillance, radar. The range for usefulsurveillance is about 200 nautical miles (nm) which meansthat the radar can be used for monitoring systems which areonly within that range. Though the radar is very old andunreliable, it gave excellent performance during the pas-sage of a recent tropical cyclone over Fiji.

There exists a two-step system of advisories on cy-clones, namely, Alert phase and Warning phase. Specialweather bulletins are issued for Tropical Cyclone Alertsand Warnings to: alert the community to the developingthreat of a tropical cyclone; give progress reports on itsdevelopment; and provide warnings of tropical cyclones orother disturbances.

All special weather bulletins are kept under constantreview and owing to the periodic nature of satellite andsynoptic data, substantial review is only possible at three-hourly intervals.

The most effective and quick means of advising thepublic of a tropical cyclone threat is through radio broad-casts. The desirability of early advices to enable people totake appropriate measures is vital even at the risk of a falsealarm.

C. Floods

Fiji experiences some 15 cyclones per decade. Asso-ciated with these cyclones are exceptionally intense rain-fall that causes destructive floods. Steep slopes, and shortstreams are characteristic of the otherwise mountainousislands of volcanic origin. Flood forecasting is thereforedifficult, given the short time lapse between the rainfalland the rise in the rivers. Flood forecasts may be ineffective,unless a system or methodology is developed to use rain-fall for forecasting floods. The traditional use of the riverlevels at upstream locations for forecasting floods in thelower reaches may not be effective for a majority of riversystems. Very heavy rainfall further complicates the severityof flash floods caused by cyclonic storms. Concentrationof development along river banks and coastal flats adds tothe vunerability to flood damage. Fiji does not have thecapability to forecast quantitative rainfall, the only radarfor severe weather forecasting centre in Nadi being over 24years old.

1. Flood forecasting and warning

The only flood forecasting system available is alongthe Rewa River, Fiji's largest catchment, which makes useof river levels in the upper catchment areas to estimate/forecast the anticipated levels down at the delta. It com-prises six river level stations linked by radio to a computerlocated in the Hydrology Office.

The system uses a black box model to forecast floodsin the delta using the river levels upstream. A lead time ofsome six hours is available to allow for preparednessmeasures such as driving livestock to higher ground andmoving property to safety, it also gives time for evacuationif necessary. In the process the public is continuallywarned over the air of its progress and appropriate meas-ures to take. This system, purchased from New Zealand,has been satisfactory but may not be applicable to othercatchments which are smaller, and where there is a veryshort time difference between the rise in river levels inupstream locations and the rise in the levels in the moredensely inhabited lower reaches. A system that uses a realtime rainfall, and a microprocessor to simulate floods isnecessary but unfortunately not available in Fiji.

2. Flood disaster counter-measures

Flood disaster countermeasures are limited to dredgingand the government has expended considerable resourcesto maintain waterways that are capable of conveying floods.

Fiji's experience of floods, which normally accom-pany tropical cyclones highlighted the need for flood protectionworks to safeguard the rapid surburban growth of the

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coastal towns located along the major rivers, and the muchmore intensive, more capitalized and technically moreadvanced agricultural development on river flats.

Although in the short term floods could be mitigatedby dredging and river bank diking to ensure that adequatechannel area is maintained, in the longer term these engi-neering works should be accompanied by appropriate wa-tershed rehabilitation and management works which, amongother things, would minimize the amount of sedimenttransported downstream.

River models are being studied and the Governmenthas sought assistance from relevant international organi-zations to facilitate watershed management studies. Rec-ommendations from such studies are being gradually im-plemented in the hope that the impact of flood disasters canbe minimized.

In the lower delta areas a programme of raisingvillage levels as protection against flood is already underway.

D. Earthquakes

1. Major earthquakes in Fiji

Fiji is located on the geologically active Pacific rimand is subject to a moderately high level of earthquake risk.In 100 years a damaging earthquakes has occurred ap-proximately once every 10 years in Fiji. However, with itsrapid development and growing urban population, Fiji isincreasingly vulnerable to the effects of strong earth-quakes. The earliest recorded report of earthquake activityin Fiji goes back to around 1850 when an earthquake nearthe island of Kadavu was "so tremendous that it took aheavy toll on life and property".

The Suva earthquake of 1953 killed eight people,five by drowning from a tsunami, and caused damageestimated at about $50,000 to Government structures alone(Suva city had a population of 35,000 at the time). Asimilar earthquake near Suva today would cause wide-spread destruction and casualties, and would incur substantialcosts to the Government.

History shows that Fiji is subject to earthquake activ-ity but it is not clear at what level and to what extentprotection should be provided. The 1953 Suva earthquakedamaged roads, bridges and wharf facilities. In presentday Suva, high rise buildings and major port facilities arealso at risk, in addition to residences.

2. Preparedness measures against earthquakes

Buildings and infrastructure can be designed andbuilt to withstand strong ground shaking from earthquakesbuL at a cost. In the past, with limited knowledge of the

level of hazard in Fiji, there was probably some neglect indesigning buildings to resist earthquakes. Certainly therewas no uniformity in design standards. However, adequatedesign by itself is not enough. In addition, there is also aneed to ensure that construction takes place according toset standards. To this end a Building Code had been drawnup to ensure buildings are cyclone resistant that wouldgreatly minimize the effects of a cyclone on buildings. TheCode includes an earthquake hazard map of Fiji.

Efforts have been made to reach every child ofschool age in Fiji with educational material on earthquakehazards. The Mineral Resources Department (MRD) iscoordinating this project. MRD operates the Fiji nationalseismographic network and monitors earthquake activityin Fiji.

The Emergency Services Committee assumes re-sponsibility for disaster safety measures related to anearthquake or tsunami. The Police and MRD are involvedin earthquake and tsunami warning.

At the moment it is impossible to predict an earthquakereliably but nonetheless statistical estimates can be madeof the probability of an earthquake occurring, based on theearthquake history. MRD has begun projects to determinethe level of hazard in Fiji. A study currently underway isanalyzing the earthquake hazard in Fiji in greater detail,and a hazard map has been prepared.

E. Tsunamis

Tsunamis are rare in Fiji, but were reported after twoearthquakes, in 1881 and after the 1953 'Suva' earthquake.The one in 1881 was reportedly about 1.8 m in height anddid not cause concern. However in 1953 the tsunami wasfrom 1.8 to 4.5 m above low tide level, causing minimaldamage along water frontages.

The public is always warned to take appropriatemeasures in the event of an earthquake which is likely togenerate tsunamis which are considered as a potentialthreat to lowlying islands.

F. Droughts

Drought normally occurs during the dry period of theyear, that is, from May to October. In addition to its effectson human lives, droughts have had adverse effects onagriculture and livestock and the economy generally. Thesevere drought following cyclone Oscar in 1983 causedheavy damage to the sugar cane crop. More than 14,000cane farmers lost most of their crop and export losses forFiji were estimated at over US$70 million. In addition,more than 30,000 persons had to be provided with food

VII. Natural disasters: Fiji experience 137

rations. The implications of such a event to the nationaleconomy are clearly very serious. The most recent exten-sive drought was in 1987 and was associated with the ElNiflo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. It al-most reached the level which would have warranted thedeclaration of a national emergency.

Overall, a total population of about 84 500 wassupplied with emergency water during the drought periodat a total cost of nearly $1 million. The lack of adequaterural water supply facilities further exacerbated the severedrought conditions, though Government has steadily assistedrural communities in their water supply schemes. For theNorthern Division alone a total population of 6 906 wasissued with food rations at a cost of $47 000.

Cane and other crops have been badly affected bydrought. In livestock farms a number of stock mortalitieshave resulted from lack of feed and/or water and grazingtoxic plants due to shortage of grass.

The Government's agricultural drought assistanceprogramme is geared towards assisting livestock and cropfarmers through the provision of supplementary feeds,planting material, manure, etc.

Because of the need to maintain adequate watersupply especially in remote areas, studies are currentlyunderway to determine alternative sources of water supply,namely, boreholes and also the provision of adequatewater tanks.

G. Landslides

Landslides are often occasioned by continuous heavyrainfall over a prolonged period. The most recent major

landslide in Suva in 1986 claimed four lives. Apart fromcausing damages to crops, buildings and loss of humanlives, roads and bridges have also sustained heavy dam-ages where substantial sums of money were required torestore normal services.

Landslides have also been associated with poor land-use management. Deforestation and indiscriminate graz-ing of livestock are major contributing factors.

In addition to economic considerations, the govern-ment's reafforestation programme forms an important ele-ment of the national soil conservation programme.

H. Natural disaster risk study/mapping

Fiji does not have hazard or risk maps on naturaldisasters which are considered a potential threat to thecountry to provide guidance and direction to developmen-tal activities. Developers and investors, however, take intoconsideration the vulnerability of locations from localknowledge before any development takes place. Howeverefforts are underway to secure the assistance of relevantinternational organizations and agencies to carry out riskstudy and risk mapping on natural disasters affecting thecountry.

The Department of Mineral Resources is currentlyundertaking a study on landslide hazard which hopefullywill lead to the production of risk mapping on this hazard.It is difficult to predict or forewarn people of an impendinglandslide; however, the risk mapping exercise should pro-vide useful guidance and direction to developers and peoplealike of areas which are considered vulnerable to landslidehazards.

138Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

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VIII. MAJOR NATURAL DISASTERS IN INDIA: INCIDENCEAND MANAGEMENT APPROACH

by B. Narasimhan1

A. Introduction

India is geographically situated between latitudes8°4'N and 37°6'N and longitudes 68°7'E and 97°25'E. TheTropic of Cancer passes through the middle of the country.The snow-covered Himalayas constitute the northern borderand the peninsular region is bounded by the Arabian Sea onthe west and Bay of Bengal on the east.

The country is a Union of 25 States and seven UnionTerritories. The Union Territories are subject to the directrule-making powers of the national parliament and theadministrative control of the Union Government. TheStates have elected legislatures and governments, whichare fully autonomous in relation to the sphere of activitiesentrusted to them under the constitution. The States arefurther divided into administrative units called districts.

Major parts of the country are subject to tropical andsub-tropical climate, though some areas experience extremeheat and cold. The country has an annual average rainfallof 1 170 mm, nearly 73 per cent of which is contributed bythe south-west monsoon during June to September. Theannual rainfall shows great variability in terms of time andspace. There are areas of very low precipitation; erraticdistribution of rainfall during the monsoon is quite common.The percentage distribution of rainfall during the year is asfollows:

cause extensive damage to life and property. Areas vulner-able to these disasters extend over 84 per cent of thegeographical area of the country, as illustrated in map 6.The information on these disasters can be summarized asfollows:

1, Droughts

India has a geographical area of 329.3 million hec-tares, of which the arable area constitutes about 140 mil-lion hectares. The percentage distribution of the cultivatedareas under various ranges of rainfall is as follows:

Percentageof tola!

33

35

24

8

Region

Low Rainfall

Medium Rainfall

High Rainfall

Very'High Rainfall

Annualrainfall, mm

750

750-1125

1125-2000

2000 and above

Period Percentage

Because of the erratic behaviour of the rainfall, eventhe medium rainfall region is vulnerable to drought condi-tions. Consequently, 68 per cent of the cultivated area isdrought-prone.

Pre-monsoon

South-west Monsoon

North-east Monsoon

Winter rains

(March-May)

(June-September)

(October-December)

(January-February)

10.4

73.7

13.3

2.6

B. Natural disasters in India

Of all the natural disasters experienced in India themost important are droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes,to which the country is frequently exposed and which

2. Floods

Floods in India occur during the monsoon season. Acombination of heavy spells of intense precipitation duringthe monsoon, tropical storms and depressions result inflooding over 40 million hectares in the country. Defor-estation in the catchments, inappropriate land use anddegraded lands, inadequate capacity of drainage channelsto carry the peak flows and extensive human occupation ofthe flood-prone plains aggregate the damages caused byfloods.

Additional Relief Commissioner and Joint Secretary to the Government of India, Ministry of Agriculture, New Delhi.

VU1. Major natural disasters in India: incidence and management approach 139

A R A B I A N S E A

The bouidaries and names SI>^AO onthis map do not rnply official nrceptanc:or endoreement by C« United Nsiiys

L E G £ N ODROUGHT PRONE AfltA E*RTH OUAKE P«OH£

I I I Vtry Sncr« ^ ^ (d Vulnfrubtt

liil St i f f . f ^ ^ (nl Highly Vulntratif

Hill Moderate EH3

FIDOO PROME AREA U2U CrCLOKE PROME

Ri«tr —^-j III >80 Km/Hr

S.R. & SWC DIVISION DEPIT ()!• AGRI & COOI'N CJOVT. Ol : INDIA, NEW DEI.HJ

Map 6. India: Incidence of natural disasters

140Part Three; National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

3. Cyclones

India has a long coastline of 5 700 km, which isexposed to tropical cyclone hazards arising in the Bay ofBengal and the Arabian Sea. On average, two or three outof six tropical cyclones generated in this region hit India.Cyclones are characterized by very high winds, torrentialrains and associated flooding and high storm surges, whichcause extensive damages in the coastal areas.

4. Earthquakes

India has about 56.6 per cent of its total area vulnerableto seismic hazards of varying intensity. The vulnerableareas are located essentially in the Himalayan regions ofthe country, and the Union Territory of Andaman andNicobar Islands.

5. Landslides

Landslides are frequent and recurrent in various re-gions of India. They are triggered by natural causes suchas heavy rainfall, and sudden cloud bursts and by land andsoil degradation caused by human interference. The Himalayanregion has a very high incidence of landslides.

6. Avalanches

About 25 000 ha of the country, mostly in the Hima-layas, fall in the Alpine region. The snow avalanches ofthe Himalayan region are massive and have great destructivepotential. An area of northern India is exposed to avalanchehazards. Most of these are direct action types, occurringduring periods of heavy snowfall or immediately thereaf-ter; wet-snow avalanches in spring are also very frequent.

C. Organizational structure for natural disastermanagement

India has an integrated administrative machinery fornatural disaster management. Disaster preparedness, reliefand disaster mitigation should underlie development pro-grammes in order to achieve cost effectiveness. Thefunctional expertise of line departments and the quickresponse system through designation of nodal and focalpoints are the cornerstones of the administrative arrange-ments for responding to natural disasters.

The basic responsibility for undertaking rescue, re-lief and rehabilitation measures in the event of naturaldisasters is that of the State Governments concerned. Therole of the national Government is supportive, in terms ofsupplementing physical and financial resources and com-plementary measures in sectors such as transport, warning,

and interstate movement of foodgrains. The Union De-partment of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) is thenodal department. An Additional Secretary in the DAC isdesignated as the Central Relief Commissioner. He providesthe focal point for interaction with the State Governments,and the Departments and agencies of the Union Governmentand for the implementation of the decisions of the UnionGovernment.

The standing arrangements provide for the activationof a Cabinet Committee on Natural Calamities (CCNC) forproviding direction and guidance in the execution of therelief operations and also to monitor the execution ofshort-term and long-term measures for disaster mitigation.

At the executive level, the Cabinet Secretary presidesover the National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC)which closely monitors the relief effort and takes steps forthe implementation of the policy directions of the CCNC.

A Crisis Management Group (CMG) under theChairmanship of the Central Relief Commissioner meetsregularly, daily during the crisis period and weekly orfortnightly in the post-crisis period, to review the situationand take steps to assist the affected States in the reliefefforts. CMG consists of representatives of all concernedcentral ministries and senior (Commissioner level) repre-sentatives of the affected States, resident in New Delhi.

The Central Relief Commissioner is assisted by anAdditional Relief Commissioner, who has under his chargean Emergency Operations Centre (EOC), which closelyinteracts with various agencies to collect information re-lating to disaster and relief operations; EOC communicateswith the nodal authorities to respond to requests for assistancefor relief operations. EOC functions round the clockduring the crisis period.

A national Contingency Action Plan (CAP) facili-tates the launching of relief operations withoutdelay. Thisis updated every year; CAP identifies the initiatives requiredto be taken by various central ministries and departmentsin the wake of natural calamities, sets down the procedureand determines the focal points in the administrative ma-chinery.

At the State level, the State Relief Commissioner (orSecretary, Department of Revenue) directs and controlsthe relief operations through Collectors or Deputy Com-missioners, who are the responsible for relief operations,such as coordination, direction and control, at the districtlevel.

The State Governments are autonomous in organiz-ing relief operations in the event of natural disasters and ininitiating long-term measures. The Union Government

VIII. Major natural disasters in India: incidence and management approach 141

supplements the State relief effort by initiating supportiveaction in complementary sectors falling within its pur-view.

Each State has a Calamity Relief Fund (CRF), ad-ministered by a State-level Committee, headed by theChief Secretary to the State Government. The size of thefund is determined by the vulnerability of the State todifferent natural calamities and the magnitude of expendi-ture normally incurred by the State on relief operations.The fund is built by annual contributions of the UnionGovernment and the State Governments concerned in theratio of 3:1. At present, the aggregate annual increment tothe States' Calamities Relief Funds amounts to Rs 8.3billion. The State Governments are free to draw upon thisfund for providing relief in the event of any natural calam-ity. In the event of a major disaster, warranting interven-tion at the national level, a provision exists for the UnionGovernment to supplement the financial resources neededfor relief operations.

D. Management of natural disasters in India

1. Droughts

(a) Forecasting and warning

Meteorological forecasts play a crucial role in regu-lating agricultural activities and helping an area to meetdrought conditions; for this purpose, the country has beendivided into 35 meteorological subdivisions. The IndiaMeteorological Department (IMD) has a large nation-widenetwork of weather stations to make daily weather fore-casts and give notice of heavy precipitation or dryspellsand cyclones. Satellite imagery and remote sensing tech-niques are used in making these forecasts.

Rainfall data is collected regularly by IMD throughits network of about 4,000 raingauges and by State Gov-ernments through an extensive network of raingauges lo-cated at sub-district level. State Governments have also asystem of collecting daily status reports about rainfall,reservoir storage and crop conditions from the field; thisinformation is compiled at the district and state level onday-to-day basis.

The agricultural extension machinery and the fieldofficers of the Revenue Department undertake visits tovillages and furnish reports about crop conditions. Stepsunder the Contingency Agriculture Plan are also initiateddepending on the progress of the monsoon. Visual cropforecasts are also made at suitable intervals. These pro-vide advance notice of drought incidence.

(b) Preparedness

The drought management strategy comprises meas-ures to mitigate disaster impact and provide relief. Waterbudgeting helps in providing life-saving critical irrigationto drought-affected crops and reduces the fall in agricultureoutput and also ensures adequate drinking water for humanand livestock population. The main objectives of the reliefprogramme are to provide:

(i) Food security to the affected population througha network distribution system;

(ii) Income distribution through a massive employ-ment generation programme;

(iii) Nutritional supplements to vulnerable sectionsof society; and

(iv) Effective health coverage to human and animalpopulation through a widespread network ofprimary health centres, mobile teams and ruralveterinary dispensaries.

The public distribution system, primary health cen-tres and veterinary dispensaries constitute the permanentorganization, which is strengthened and expended duringthe drought period. To meet the escalating demands fromdrought-affected States, special allocations of foodgrainsare made from the national buffer stocks held by the FoodCorporation of India, In the face of the impending drought,the District Collector makes an assessment of the areaslikely to face drinking water shortages and draws up apianfor provision of drinking water during the anticipatedperiods of crisis either by development of new watersources or transportation of water. The provision of foddereither by transportation to the deficit areas or by crashcultivation of fodder and care of the vulnerable cattlepopulation in camps are also important components of thedrought relief programme.

A comprehensive Crop Insurance Scheme provides ameasure of financial support to the farmers in the event ofcrop failure. Supply of subsidized agricultural inputs andprovision of agriculture credit under relaxed criteria aremeasures designed to sustain the agricultural activities inthe succeeding monsoon.

(c) Prevention and reduction

A watershed approach to dryland agriculture hasbeen promoted through a National Watershed DevelopmentProgramme for rainfed agriculture. Moreover, exploita-tion of major irrigation and groundwater potential andconstruction of water harvesting structures for providingcritical irrigation have reduced vulnerability to drought.

142Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

Environmental development programmes, including thedrought-prone area programme and the desert developmentprogramme, promote appropriate land use, rehabilitatedegraded lands and develop subsidiary occupations. All ofthese programmes are being implemented as measures toreduce vulnerability in drought-prone areas.

2. Cyclones and floods

India has four major flood-prone regions identifiedby river systems, namely:

- The Brahamputra region: essentially in the north-eastern region consisting of Brahamputra and Barak riversand their tributaries;

- The Ganga region: in north-eastern India com-prising river Ganga and its tributaries;

- The north-western region: comprising rivers In-dus and its tributaries; and

- The Central India and Deccan region: consisting ofwestward-flowing rivers such as Narmada and Tapti and east-ward flowing rivers Mahanadi, Krishna and Kaveri.

Tropical cyclones affect the coastal areas along theeastern and western coasts of India. The cyclonic distur-bances occurring in the Bay of Bengal in the east are morefrequent and cause more extensive damages. From 1891 to1990, the Bay of Bengal produced 442 cyclones, while 117cyclones originated in the Arabian Sea. They occurredmainly in the months of April/May and October/November.

(a) Forecasting and warning

The IMD gives forecasts of heavy precipitation andimpending cyclones and associated destructive weather 72hours, 48 hours and 24 hours in advance. The StateGovernments obtain, on a regular basis, details about thereservoir status in relation to storage, inflow and outflow atmajor dams. The Central Water Commission has a net-work of 151 forecasting stations on major interstate riversin the country. Flood forecasts are issued to various Stateauthorities, almost on a daily basis during the monsoon andat suitable periodical intervals at other times.

A two-stage cyclone warning system is available inthe country to trigger off advance precautionary measuresin the face of cyclonic threat. The first stage cyclonic alertis issued by cyclone warning centres to State Governmentsand District Collectors 36 to 48 hours before the expectedonset of the adverse weather. Broadcasts over radio andtelevision also warn people. A satellite-based disasterwarning system is used to communicate warnings to the

affected population directly. A second stage cyclonicwarning is issued by IMD 24 hours before the expectedland-fall of the threatening cyclone.

(b) Preparedness

A Contingency Action Plan exists for meeting thethreat of floods and cyclones at the State and district levels.The preparedness activity consists in reviewing the statusof various measures to be initiated in advance and tosensitize the administrative machinery.

Typical preparation consists of:

identification and establishment of temporaryshelters;

advance stocking of material required for rescueand immediate relief operations;

- inspection of river embankments and undertak-ing of repairs, where necessary;

- keeping the warning system, the communicationand navigation equipment in a good state ofrepair;

stocking or essential medicines, drugs and first-aid kits; and

- conduct of drills to keep the administrative ma-chinery on the alert.

(c) Prevention and reduction

The strategy for ensuring protection to flood-proneareas comprises:

training of rivers and protection of embank-ments;

canals to divert the surplus flow in the river;

- balancing of reservoir storages;

- activities to decongest drainage lines;

treatment of the catchments of flood-prone riv-ers through soil; and

- disseminating information to dissuade humansettlement in flood plains.

(d) Relief measures

The post-disaster relief effort consists in the supplyof housing material, restoration of communication links,

VIII. Major natural disasters in India: incidence and management approach 143

provision of financial help for resumption of normal ac-tivities, provision of physical and financial resources forrestoration of affected agricultural lands for agriculturalpurposes and supply of subsidized agricultural inputs forresumption of agricultural activities.

3. Earthquakes

(a) Monitoring

IMD is the nodal agency in India for monitoringearthquakes. Fifty-six (56) seismic stations and 32 seismicobservatories in different parts of the country are engagedin the task of monitoring seismic activities. Arrangementsalso exist for monitoring seismic disturbances in someparticular reservoirs/dam sites.

(b) Preparedness

Guidelines for suitably strengthening buildings againstseismic activity of various magnitudes have been evolvedafter extensive research by the Department of EarthquakeEngineering, University of Roorkee. Roorkee stock-roll-ing facility for testing resistance of structures to earth-quake impact has also been developed. The NationalBuilding Organization (NBO) has brought out design andconstruction standards for construction of earthquake-re-sistant buildings. The Indian Standards Institution hasissued codes incorporating guidelines for design and con-struction of earthquake resistant buildings.

(c) Prevention and preparedness

Disaster reduction efforts consist essentially in pro-moting earthquake resistant structures in the highly seis-mic regions. NBO has put up specially designed housesunder its experimental housing scheme in the seismicregions. Special measures are undertaken by NBO throughits 15 regional Housing Development Centres to transfertechnology in the field of rural housing to building organi-zations and others.

(d) Relief

A contingency action plan exists for initiating reliefmeasures immediately after the earthquake. Periodic drillsare carried out by administrative machinery for disastermanagement. Training in civil defence is important to keydisaster relief personnel in the country in the NationalCivil Defence College.

Relief measures, on similar lines for flood measuresare undertaken for relief, reconstruction and rehabilitationpurposes.

E. Involvement of non-governmental organizationsin disaster relief

The association of non-governmental organizations(NGOs) in the provision of relief in the wake of naturaldisasters is a significant aspect of disaster management inIndia. During drought, NGOs are entrusted, on a selectivebasis, with the task of providing drinking water, supply offodder, management of fodder depots and maintenance ofcattle camps. During floods, cyclones and earthquakes,they are very actively involved in the task of evacuation,provision of temporary shelters, distribution of food andessential commodities and reconstruction and rehabilita-tion programmes. Supplementary financial resources neededfor relief operations of NGOs are extended by the Govern-ment. Inter-NGO coordination and their effective interac-tion with State agencies is ensured under the direction andcontrol of district Collectors and State Relief Commission-ers.

F. Internationa] Decade for Natural DisasterReduction (IDNDR) in India

As a part of the IDNDR observance, India has envis-aged launching of special training programmes and evalu-ation studies to help in improving the resilience of disas-ter-prone areas and to integrate development activities toreduce the vulnerability of different areas to particulardisasters. A core group comprising senior officers ofdifferent Departments of Union Government and StateGovernments has been set up in DAC to formulate specificaction plans.

144Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

IX. NATURAL DISASTERS AND METEOROLOGICAL WARNING SYSTEMS IN INDIA

by G.S. Mandal1

A. Introduction

Loss of life and property owing to natural disasterssuch as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, tornadoes,earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is very large. Fortu-nately, for some of the greatest natural disasters such astropical cyclones, warning services are available today andby proper long and short term mitigation measures, loss oflives and properties can be reduced. It is the endeavour ofnational meteorological services of the world to providewarnings to the public for some of the weather relatednatural disasters by detecting, tracking and predicting them.

It is not possible to forecast a long period in advanceprecisely when and where a dangerous natural phenomenonwill take place. Nevertheless, it is feasible to make anassessment of the vulnerability of different localities tothese natural disasters by considering the historical records.Risk assessment of this nature falls under long-term disastermeasures. On the other hand, warning systems for themfall under short-term disaster mitigation measures.

Some of the natural disasters affecting India and therole of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) inmitigating these disasters will be discussed in this paper.More emphasis will be given to tropical cyclone warningsystems in India, as tropical cyclones constitute the majornatural hazard affecting the country.

B. Tropical cyclones, floods and tornadoes

Tropical cyclones, at times, bring nature's worstdisasters in the tropics. Slightly away from the equatorwithin the belt of tropics (between 30°N and 30°S) thetropical cyclones form at ocean areas where the oceanwater is warm. However, their frequency, intensity andimpact varies from place to place. The frequency oftropical cyclone is the least in the north Indian Ocean (theBay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea) and they are thedeadliest when they cross the coast bordering the areas ofnorth Bay of Bengal (coastal areas of north Orissa, WestBengal and Bangladesh). This is due to the serious stormsurge created by cyclones in the area. Records indicatethat a large majority of noteworthy tropical cyclone disasters

(human loss>10 000) took place over the coastal areas inthe north Bay of Bengal during the last couple of centuries.The above facts bring the special nature of the problem inour area, the importance of cyclone warning system in thispart of the world and their long-and short-term preventivemeasures.

1. Features of a tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclones are the intense low pressure areasin the atmosphere around which fierce wind blows. Hori-zontally, it extends from 500 to 1 000 km and verticallyfrom surface to about 12 to 14 km.

The intensity and classification of cyclonic distur-bances (low pressure areas) are made by the strength of theassociated winds. The classification used in India is givenin table 21.

Table 21. Intensity and classification of cyclonicdisturbances

Disturbance Wind speed in knots

1. Depression

2. Deep depression

3. Cyclonic storm

4. Severe cyclonic storm

5. Severe cyclonic storm with a

core of hurricane winds

17-27 (32-50 km/hr)

28-33 (51-61 km/hr)

34-47 (62-68 km/hr)

48-63 (89-117 km/hr)

Exceeding 63 (117 km/hr)

A mature tropical cyclone consists of a central regionof light winds known as its 'eye'. The 'eye' has an averageradius of about 20 to 30 km, but it can be 40 to 50 km inlarge mature storms. The pressure is the lowest andtemperature the highest in this region with either clear orpartly cloudy skies. The 'eye' is surrounded by a ring ofvery strong winds extending on an average up to 30 to 50

India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India.

IX- Natural disasters and meteorological warning systems in India 145

km beyond the centre. This area is called "wall cloud"zone. Surrounding this region, winds spiralling in a anti-clockwise manner in the northern hemisphere, extend out-wards to large distances, with speeds gradually decreasingfurther away from the centre. The rate of decrease ofwinds may be rapid or gradual. Vertically wind rotates ina anticlockwise manner up to about 7-8 km followed byclockwise winds up to 12-14 km in the northern hemi-sphere.

The 'eye' (central portion) of the tropical cyclone isalmost cloud free, surrounded by walls of clouds arrangedin the form of a hollow cylinder. This wall cloud zonecoincides with the zone of maximum wind. Thus, thiszone, though very narrow, constitutes the most hazardouszone of a tropical cyclone, as wind here is extremely strongand rainfall is very heavy and vertical velocity is verylarge. Clouds outside the wall cloud appear in bands andfinally these bands merge with the wall clouds or thecentral portion of the tropical cyclone. Because of thisspecial nature of the clouds associated with the tropicalcyclone they are easily detectable in satellite and radarcloud photographs.

2. Climatology of tropical cyclones

On average, about five to six tropical cyclones formin the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea every year, out ofwhich two or three may be severe. More cyclones origi-nate in the Bay of Bengal than in the Arabian Sea, and theratio of their frequencies is about 4:1. May, June, Octoberand November are the stormiest months of the year. Com-pared to the pre-monsoon season, particularly the monthsof October and November are known for severe storms.The frequency of cyclones and severe cyclones in the Bayof Bengal and the Arabian sea during the 98 year periodfrom 1891 to 1988 is shown in table 22.

Although the cyclonic storms have occurred in themonsoon season, really severe ones are rare. Stormsduring the monsoon are more marked by rainfall, whichoften leads to floods in different parts of the country.

3. Destructive effects of tropical cyclones

Severe tropical cyclones are responsible for largecasualties and considerable damage to property and agri-

Table 22. Frequency of tropical cyclones near India, 1891-1988

Months

January

February

March

AprilMay

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Total

Cyclonicstorm

4

02

11

15

33

33

27

2444

40

23

256

Bay of Bengal

Severecyclonicstorm

2

1

2

10

3357

3

1534

52

18

V82

Arabian Sea

Cyclonicstorm

2

00

24

632

514

6

5

49

Severecyclonicstorm

0004

1512

00

311

21

2

68

146Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

cultural crops. The destruction is normally confined to thecoastal districts and the maximum destruction takes placewithin 100 km from the centre of the cyclones and on theright side of the storm track. Principal dangers from acyclone are: gales and strong winds; torrential rain; andhigh storm surges. Most of the casualties are caused bycoastal inundation by storm surges. Maximum penetrationof severe storm surges varies from 10 to 20 km inland fromthe coast. Heavy rainfall and floods come next in order ofdevastation. They are often responsible for much loss oflife and damage to property. Death and destruction purelydue to winds are relatively small. The collapse of buildings,falling trees, flying debris, electrocution, rain and aircraftaccidents, and disease from contaminated food and waterin the post-cyclone period also contribute to loss of life anddestruction of property.

The most destructive element associated with in-tense tropical cyclones is the storm surge. The enormity ofdevastation may be fathomed from the fact that the stormsurge of about 6 m associated with the single cyclone in1970 caused death of about 300,000 people in Bangladesh.

The storm surge is the sudden rise in the sea level dueto topical cyclone and is greatly amplified where thecoastal water is shallow, and where the shape of the coastis like a funnel. The coastal areas of north Bay of Bengalmeet all these criteria and therefore storm surge gets enor-mously amplified there. Due to several suitable conditionsin these areas the world's highest storm surge ( l l m ) wasreported from this area in association with a storm ofmoderate intensity in 1876 (near Bakerganj).

The rise in sea level due to astronomical tide may beas high as 4.5 m above the mean sea level at some parts ofthe Indian coasts. The worst devastation takes place whenand where peak storm surge occurs at the time of highastronomical tide.

Devastation due to coastal inundation by the com-bined effects of storm surge and astronomical tide can bereduced by evacuation of people in time if there is anefficient and reliable system of prediction of the sea levelelevation. Prediction of tide is available in astronomicaltide tables. It is then necessary to evolve a system topredict the storm surge due to an ensuing tropical cyclone.

Fortunately, the India Meteorological Department isin a position to evolve a method after continuous researchto estimate the storm surge in association with the tropicalcyclones by solving complicated hydrodynamical equa-tions using computer.

4. Cyclone warning systems in India

The cyclone warning service of the India Meteoro-logical Department is now over 100 years old and is one ofthe most important functions of the Department.

(a) Present cyclone warning organization

At present the cyclone warnings are provided throughthe Area Cyclone Warning Centres (ACWCs) located atCalcutta, Madras and Bombay and Cyclone Warning Cen-tres (CWCs) at Bhubaneshwar, Visakhapatnam andAhmedabad. The zone of responsibility of each office isclearly demarcated. Cyclone warning bulletins for AllIndia Radio, and cyclone advisories for the north IndianOcean to Bangladesh, Myanmar, India, Maldives, Pakistan,Sri Lanka and Thailand are being issued from the Mete-orological Office at New Delhi. This office in New Delhialso issues tropical cyclone advisories for the tropicalcyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean to Mauritius.

(b) Cyclone tracking

In India, tropical cyclones are tracked with the helpof: regular observations from weather network of surfaceand upper air observing stations; ships' reports; cyclonedetection radars; satellites; and reports from commercialaircraft.

In addition to the large number of surface and upperair observatories, about 280 ships of the Indian MerchantFleet are equipped with meteorological instruments fortaking observations out at sea. Ships of other countriespassing through India's oceanic areas are also expected toprovide frequent meteorological observations to the near-est meteorological office through the Post and TelegraphDepartment's Coastal Radio Stations.

A network of 10 cyclone detection radars has beenset up along the Indian coast. Six of them are located atCalcutta, Paradip, Visakhapatnam, Madras, Machilipatnamand Karaikal on the east coast, while four are located atGoa, Cochin, Bombay and Bhuj on the west coast. Therange of these radars is 400 km.

Satellites are one of the most dependable tools fortracking the weather systems such as cyclones. When thecyclone is beyond the range of coastal radars, its intensityand movement is monitored with the help of weathersatellites. Today, the Meteorological Department of Indiahas the capability to monitor cloud pictures from the PolarOrbiting Satellites launched by the United States and theUSSR and from India's Geostationary Satellite INSAT-1B.

IX. Natural disasters and meteorological warning systems in India 147

Aircraft reconnaissance is another important tool fortracking the tropical cyclone and measuring some impor-tant meteorological parameters from the storm field. Thisfacility is not yet available in India.

With the availability of the cyclone warning radarnetwork along India's coastline and modern facilities tomonitor cloud pictures from satellites, today, cyclones inthe Indian seas are not likely to go undetected.

(c) Main users of cyclone warnings

The main users served by the Department are: com-mercial shipping and the Indian Navy; port authorities;officials of the State and Central Governments; fishermenand fisheries officials of the State Governments; "specialwamees", who are registered with the Department; commercialaviation; and the general public.

(d) Preparation of forecasts

The important components of cyclone warnings arethe forecast of future path, intensity and the associateddestructive weather systems. For the preparation of fore-cast of path and storm surges, the modern methods whichutilize computers are used in addition to conventionalmethods. For the intensity forecast satellite techniques areused.

(e) Dissemination of cyclone warnings

Warnings to the State Governments and special warneesare issued in two stages. In the first stage a 'Cyclone Alert'is issued normally 48 hours before the commencement ofadverse weather along the coast. A cyclone warning isissued about 24 hours before the cyclone strikes the coast.Ports and fisheries warnings start much earlier. Thesewarnings are disseminated through: landline telegrams onspecial high priority; repeated broadcasts through All In-dia Radio in different local languages; bulletins to thepress; the Post and Telegraph Department's Coastal RadioStations (broadcast in code for the benefit of ships plyingin the high seas); telephones, telexes and teleprinters wher-ever available; and wireless network of the police.

However, the Postal Department's telegraph chan-nels are still the main mode of dissemination of cyclonewarnings in India, and these are normally vulnerable toadverse weather.

Recently, to overcome these difficulties, the IndiaMeteorological Department has developed a system knownas Disaster Warning System (DWS) to transmit cyclonewarning bulletins through INSAT-DWS to the recipients.There are four elements of INSAT-DWS. These are: the

cyclone warning centre for originating the area code of thedistricts and disaster warning message; the earth stationlocated near the cyclone warning centre with uplink facilityin C-band and suitable communication links with the cy-clone warning centres; the C/S band transponder on boardINS AT; and the INSAT-DWS receivers located in cyclone-prone areas.

(f) Cyclone Distress Mitigation Committee (CDMC)

To recommend ways and means to improve cyclonewarning services and short and long term mitigation measures,the Cyclone Distress Mitigation Committee (CDMC) wasconstituted for Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal.The committee made comprehensive recommendationsfor the above purposes. Later a Cyclone Review Committeewas also constituted by the Department of Science andTechnology. This committee also made comprehensiverecommendations for the improvement of cyclone warningservices and the long-and short-term measures to mitigatecyclone distress, taking into account the recommendationsof the earlier committee.

As a result of implementation of the CDMC and CRCrecommendations, not only have the cyclone warning servicesimproved, but also the mitigation measures taken by all theStates have been strengthened. These include constructionof shelters, afforestation schemes, construction of em-bankments and dykes and improvement of communicationsystems. Coordination between cyclone warning centresand the affected State Governments has also improvedconsiderably, with the result that loss of lives due totropical cyclones has been reduced.

5. Heavy rainfall and flood warnings

The heavy rainfall warnings constitute an importantfactor in many hydrometeorological problems, such asflood forecasting. The flood forecasters are interested inthe precise information on the average rainfall in thecatchment areas during the previous 24 hours (quantitativeprecipitation estimates), and the rainfall expected to occurin the catchment areas during the next 24 hours (quantita-tive precipitation forecast).

There are several methods for the estimation of pre-cipitation. These are: conventional method using raingaugenetwork; with the help of radar; and with the help ofsatellite data.

One of the oldest, but still very useful methods ofobserving precipitation continues to be the use of raingaugesinstalled at selected locations. In India the present numberof raingauge stations available over the country is quitelarge. Data from about 2 500 key raingauge stations

148Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

throughout the country, are regularly used for analysingand estimating rainfall in various meteorological centresin the country. Such rainfall analysis forms the basis ofrainfall estimation.

Radar is useful in estimating precipitation for a largearea from a central location in real time. However, itsrange is limited to about 150 km. The accuracy of precipi-tation estimates by radar is of the order of 75 to 80 per cent,but these are not widely used in the Indian sub-continent.

Satellite imagery is another tool for estimating rain-fall over a vast area from the vantage point of outer space.Today, the coverage of a geostationary satellite is such thatit can provide data on an almost global scale every 20 to 30minutes. With the visible and infra-red sensors, globalcoverage is possible, for the entire day and night. Land andsea regions are observed with equal spatial and temporalresolution and data are available in real time.

Heavy rainfall warnings are currently issued by theIndia Meteorological Department from its various mete-orological offices. These heavy rainfall warnings aremainly for short-range, and are communicated to recipi-ents through different links including telegraph channels.Heavy rainfall warnings are also broadcast through the AllIndia Radio from different stations and in different Indianlanguages.

India is providing flood warnings through CentralFlood Forecasting Divisions (CFFD) of the Central WaterCommission (CWC) covering the major rivers such as theGanges, Brahmaputra, Mahanadi, Krishna, Godavari andtheir major tributaries and other flood-prone rivers in thecountry. The India Meteorological Department providessupport to these flood forecasting centres by providingheavy rainfall warnings through the Flood MeteorologicalOffices (FMOs) now functioning at 10 centres.

6. Severe local storms and tornadoes

Severe thunderstorms, known in India as severe lo-cal storms, are natural phenomena which cause consider-able damage to life and property every year in India. Thedestructive effects of local severe storms are high winds,hail storms, lightening, heavy rains. Most violent of all arethe tornadoes. However, frequency of tornadoes in India isvery low (one or two per year).

Severe thunderstorms are observed in the hot weatherseason, i.e., from the middle of March to the middle ofJune. The main regions of high thunderstorm activity inIndia during the prem6nsoon season are: north-east India,north-west India, central parts of the country, and thesouth-west peninsula. Thunderstorms over north-east India

are normally very severe and are known as "Nor' westers",as their modal direction is from no/thwest. In north-westIndia, associated with convective clouds, duststorms oc-cur. Significant duststorm activity begins in April andreaches maximum in June.

Basic parameters leading to the development of athunderstorm are observed through conventional synopticsurface and upper air meteorological observations. Hourlyobservations are taken in some selected areas and areutilized in forecasting severe thunderstorms. The mostreliable tracking of severe storms is through radar surveillance.As soon as the thunderstorm cells or squall lines areobserved on the radar screen, their speed and direction ofmovements can be measured by marking their progressover the radar screen. On the radar screen indications arealso available regarding its severity and its potential forproducing rain and hail. Such information is utilized inforecasting the local severe storms. Cloud observationsfrom geostationary satellites and polar orbiting satellitesare useful in demarcating broadly the area's potential forthe convective development where severe storms mayoccur.

At present, a procedure exists for issuing warningsbased on certain known factors for high wind, hail andheavy rain associated with the thunderstorms, generally 24hours in advance to the warnees listed with the differentmeteorological offices in India. In addition, such warningsare issued from different meteorological offices in India tothe public through All India Radio and all other newsmedia. Considering the random occurrence of tornadoes,their short life period and very low frequency in India, thewarning services for tornadoes have not been developed asyet.

C. Droughts

Drought is one of the worst natural calamities thataffects India frequently. The most important cause of thedrought is the deficiency of rainfall. India's agriculturedepends on the south-west monsoon (June to September)rainfall. During this period, the country receives about 75per cent of its annual rainfall. A large deficiency ofmonsoon rainfall in sizeable parts of the country, there-fore, brings disasters. The monsoon rainfall shows consid-erable year to year variability over the country as a wholeand also over the regions such as north-west India andpeninsular India. One way of indexing a drought is byconsidering the rainfall departure from the normal, althoughthere are various ways of defining drought. According torainfall records, from 1875 to 1987 there were 19 occasionsof drought in India and a whole. In north-west India andPeninsular India, the monsoon failed on 43 and 25 occa-sions, respectively, during the same period. The record

IX. Natural disasters and meteorological warning systems in India 149

does not indicate a trend or periodicity for the occurrenceof drought. However, during the period 1920 to 1960 theincidence of drought was much less than prior to and afterthat period.

Drought prediction still remains an unsolved prob-lem. India Meteorological Department is, however, apioneer in issuing long range forecasts of monsoon rainfallfor more than 100 years.

The long range forecasts in India are being issuedusing statistical correlation and linear regression equa-tions. Initially, the factors used were essentially the sur-face observations in and around India and later, with theavailability of upper air observations, upper air data werealso included. By continuous research, from time to timethe techniques are modified and new techniques are added.In 1987, a parametric model was developed which utilizes15 parameters. Some of these are global and some areregional in nature. The parameters are physically linkedwith the monsoon circulation. It has been observed that ina year when 60 per cent or more of the parameters are

unfavourable, the monsoon has invariably failed. On theother hand, when 60 per cent or more of the parameters arefavourable, the monsoon was either normal or above nor-mal. This model indicates a very encouraging means ofdrought prediction.

D. Earthquakes

Earthquakes are another class of natural phenomenawhich bring frightening disasters to mankind. However, atpresent, there is no warning system for the occurrence ofearthquakes. Only by analysing the past data can the riskareas be demarcated. Earthquake disaster can be reducedonly by avoiding human activities in high seismic zones.

The role of the India Meteorological Department inearthquake mitigation is to observe earthquakes and toanalyse the past data for risk assessment. India Meteoro-logical Department has already demarcated the countryinto different seismic zones by analysing the past data.

150Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

X. INDONESIA: DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND MANAGEMENT

by JusufTalib1

A. Introduction

The geologic and geographic setting of the Indone-sian archipelago and the uneven distribution of populationare continuing to expose Indonesia to a variety of hazardswhich adversely affect the environment, the infrastructure,buildings and constructions, and the settlements. Naturaldisasters can cause suffering of the people and damage toproperty, resulting in high economic losses amounting tobillions of rupiahs. The Government of Indonesia hasbecome very concerned with natural disasters as they havetended to become more destructive by affecting an increasinglylarger numer of populated areas, and has issued severalregulations to prevent and mitigate the impact.

The recently established disaster management systemhas achieved significant progress, especially with the ap-plication of science and technology in research and studieson assessment of disastrous phenomena and their management,successfully minimizing or reducing the damages, lossesand suffering of the people.

B. Natural disasters in Indonesia

The Indonesian archipelago consists of five mainislands and about 30 smaller groups totalling 13 677 is-lands and islets of which about 6 000 are inhabited andlocated in the tropical zone between the Pacific and theIndian Oceans, and bridges the two continents, mainlandAsia and Australia. Indonesia's social, cultural, economi-cal and political as well as security patterns have alwaysbeen affected by its geographic position.

The territory of the Republic of Indonesia stretchesfrom 6°8' North latitude to 11°15' South latitude and from94°45'to 14T65' East longitude, with an estimated area ofabout 5 193 250 sq.km, which consists of a land territory of202 787 km2, and a sea territory of 3 166 163 km. Java,with a surface area of 132 187 sq.km, is the most fertile anddensely populated island; Kalimantan, covering two-thirdsof Borneo island, has an area of 539 460 sq.km; andSulawesi 189 216 sq. km and Irian Jaya 421 981 sq.km.The other islands are smaller in size.

The three seismic belts which divide the Indonesianarchipelago into three parts, are: (a) the Alpine Java orTethys mountain systems, stretching from continental Asiasouthward, west of Sumatra and subsequently turning east,south of Java, towards the Moluccan islands; (b) the Circum-Pacific System, constituting a part of the east Asiaticsystems, stretching from the islands of Japan all the waydown south through the Philippines, the northern part ofSulawesi and the Moluccan islands; and (c) the Circum-Australia Belt, constituting a part of the East Asiatic System,stretching from New Zealand through Australia, the provinceof Irian Jaya and the Moluccan islands.

Indonesia's land area is generally covered by thicktropical rain forest, where fertile soils are continuouslyreplenished by volcanic eruptions such as those on theisland of Java, since the ejected lava has a high degree ofsoil fertility. The island of Java has 35 volcanic activitycentres of which 16 are categorized as type A volcanoes.There are in total 128 active and 75 type A volcanoes inIndonesia.

The climate and weather are characterized by themonsoon system and there are two rainy seasons a year.

The population of Indonesia numbered over 179million, indicating a decrease in the growth rate from 2.15to 1.97 per cent per year since 1980 (National Census of1990). The largest number of people, approximately 61per cent, live in Java which constitutes only 7 per cent ofthe total land area of the country, with 31 per cent of thepopulation living in urban areas on Java. This unevendistribution of population makes matters more compli-cated in Indonesia.

Indonesia is subjected to an extremely high degree ofseismic activity with an annual average of 350 earth-quakes, where between four to ten earthquakes are of highscale magnitudes. Approximately half to two-thirds of thetotal number of South-east Asian earthquakes have oc-curred in Indonesia.

Due to the 128 existing active volcanoes, Indonesiais also subjected to a high rate of earthquake incidence ofvolcanic nature. Active crustal movements occur along

Secretary, National Coordinating Board for Disaster Management (BAKORNAS PH), Jakarta, Indonesia.

X. Indonesia: Disaster preparedness and management 151

the Indonesian islands. The regions extending from Sumatrapassing through Java and Lesser Sunda islands to the northfollowing the western part of Sulawesi, are categorized asareas prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

The humid tropical climate of most regions in thecountry is characterized by very high annual precipitation,which causes high incidence of landslides and floods.According to historical records, most of this type of disas-ters have struck at regular intervals due to recurrent natureof rainfall. Studies have been undertaken to measure thedestructive impacts of such disasters, and to improve theprediction and mitigation capabilities.

C. Disaster preparedness and management

Disaster awareness is an important issue in makingthe people and the concerned officials prepared to face alltypes of hazards. This needs education and training, andappropriate logistic facilities, of which transportation andtelecommunication facilities are the most constrained inIndonesia.

In Indonesia urbanization has been rapid in recentyears owing to socio-cultural and socio-economic changes,which seriously affect disaster preparedness measures.

Humanitarian issues tend to dominate the rescue andrelief activities and overwhelm disaster preparedness inthe country. Continuous recurrence of disasters and othereconomic constraints tend to reduce the level at whichmitigation procedures should be practised. The Govern-ment has taken the lead in achieving the right balancebetween disaster relief and mitigation at the national level,and has encouraged the same at all levels of authority.

Natural and man-made disasters threatening Indone-sia are comprehensive and severe. Major risks arise fromearthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, landslides, strongwinds, high tides, fires, droughts, agricultural pests anddiseases, water/air/soil pollution, deforestation and otherenvironmental degradations. Natural disasters have re-peatedly caused significant economic losses, loss of hu-man lives and suffering, and damage to and loss of personaland public properties. In addition some major air andmaritime calamities and traffic accidents have been expe-rienced frequently, while industrial accidents have occurredoccasionally, due to natural disasters.

Within the period 1984-1989, about 18 591 majordisasters were recorded with an annual average of 3 702events. As can be seen in table 23, these resulted in a totalof 4 129 deaths, almost 9.3 million people severely af-fected, 153 788 houses collapsed and 441 493 damaged,and a total estimated loss of Rp. 562 billion (approximatelyUS$ 315 million). This amount does not include damagesto the infrastructural buildings and constructions and envi-

ronmental losses, which would amount to more than twiceor triple as much.

Within this context the Government of Indonesia ispursuing a policy of "disaster management" with emphasison preparedness and mitigation programmes, coveringprocedures and responses related to both the pre- and post-disaster phases aimed at reducing the negative impact ofdisasters on population living in disaster-prone and high-risk areas.

Disaster preparedness and mitigation activities atpre-disaster phase include collection and analysis of rel-evant data, and formulation of countermeasures as well asundertaking education and training programmes to en-hance the awareness and preparedness of the people.

Intervention of the Government of Indonesia in dis-aster management often follows a cyclical pattern where adisaster occurs, and the weaknesses in the response activi-ties come into the open and protective measures fail.Greater efforts in rehabilitation, reconstruction, improve-ment of preparedness measures and better mitigation plan-ning are then made in preparation for the next unpredict-able disaster event.

Due to the complexity of the impacts of disasters thepreparedness measures are undertaken in a multi-func-tional and multi-disciplinary manner.

To facilitate implementation of the Fifth Five-YearNational Development Plan, the Guidelines of the StatePolicy designated in 1988 by the National People's As-sembly, describe inter alia three main objectives for dis-aster management: civil protection; conservation of theenvironment; and national development of security anddefence.

The disaster management strategy of the Govern-ment reflects those guidelines, that is to strengthen thecommunity's awareness and preparedness to cope withpossible disaster occurrences in vulnerable areas, and toachieve environmental management, including all socio-economic and cultural components of development deci-sion making.

In this context the foremost implication is that "sus-tainable development" or "environmentally sound devel-opment" is directly related to all the disaster managementefforts. All experiences gained in disaster managementsince the establishment of the National CoordinatingBoard for Disaster Management (BAKORNAS PB) arepreserved and developed, and improvements are madeaccordingly.

The disaster preparedness strategy aims, in the long-term, at having risk assessment and evaluation techniques

152Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

Table 23. Disaster records in Indonesia, 1984/1985 to 1988/1989(Fourth National Development Plan Period)

No.

1

2

3

4

5

Fiscalyear

1984/1985

1985/1986

1986/1987

1987/1988

1988/1989

Frequency

4311

4 576

4 680

2 423

2601

TOTAL : 18 591

Annual average ; 3 702

1974/75 to 1984/85

Annual average 4 SSI

Suffering(thousand)

1999

1999

2 163

1 106

1994

9 261

1852

5 272

Death

1026

942

992

725

444

4 129

826

794

HouSes

Collapsed

42974

59190

24 058

12293

15 273

153 788

30757

31817

Damaged

203 599

119 506

58 364

25059

34 965

441 493

88 298

70269

Estimated Losses(1 POO million

Rupiahs)

131.9

80.7

105.1

130.5

113.8

562.1 *

112.4

98.0

Source: Department of Social Affairs, 1989

Note : Not including environmental and infrastructural losses* Equivalent $US 335 million

employed by the provincial level planners and authoritiesin all of the 27 provinces, and in having one up-to-datenational disaster plan for each province. Training courseswhich have been conducted for disaster managers, govern-ment officials and non-governmental volunteer agencies,will be continued.

Continuous monitoring and control of all potentialhazards that can be caused by changes due to nature or byhuman interventions, are considered to be the pre-requisitefor both planned operational response and mitigation ac-tivities. A risk monitoring system is being developed intoa centralized information and data processing system cov-ering all disaster-prone provinces and areas.

Owing to the widespread scope of hazard-prone ar-eas, the main disaster response activities are focused on thedistrict or municipality level to give the District Head orMunicipality Mayor the full authority to take the necessarysteps on disaster preparedness, mitigation and response intime of emergency. The Governor of the Province has theresponsibility to coordinate all departmental offices andnon-governmental organizations at the provincial leveland to provide general assistance to the District or Munici-pal Operational units. The Governor at the provincial leveltakes responsibility for further steps to be taken, such as

provision of medicine, social and technical help, and otherappropriate assistance.

D. Regional and international cooperation in naturaldisaster reduction

Development efforts need to be enhanced throughcooperative activities with other countries since disasteroccurrences are not limited by administrative boundariesof a country. Therefore regional as well as internationalcooperation in disaster management would be vitally im-portant to provide mutual assistance between interestedcountries to help each other in strengthening the nationalcapability to cope with disasters.

In this context Indonesia's adoption of the sustain-able development concept has led to development of meas-ures for disaster prevention and mitigation linked withreliable regional communication and information systemsnetwork. Through this network, warnings of impendingdisasters and emergencies can be relayed from country tocountry, and continuous cooperation can be maintained.

As a response to the International Decade for NaturalDisaster Reduction (IDNDR), the Government of Indonesiahas decided to establish the National Coordination Board

X. Indonesia: Disaster preparedness and management 153

for Disaster Management as the Committee responsible toestablish national work programmes on natural disasterreduction.

Sectoral and bilateral projects with technical assist-ance from other countries, directly or indirectly related todisaster management objectives, have been coordinatedand integrated to support the establishment of one compre-hensive national disaster management system.

Some examples of on-going projects conducted byseveral departments or institutions are:

(1) The Department of Public Works with the JapaneseInternational Cooperation Agency (JICA) onVolcanic Debris and Flood Control which willbe developed with River Disaster EngineeringProject.

(2) The Department of Mines and Energy with theUnited States Geological Survey (USGS), JICAand France on geological hazards engineering.

(3) The Department of Communication (the Agencyfor Meteorology and Geophysics) with France,WMO, and UNESCO on setting up a monitoringand observation network on meteorological andseismic activities.

(4) The Department of Health with WMO on disas-ter medicine.

(5) The Indonesia Institute for Sciences with Aus-tralia and UNESCO on ocean dynamics.

(6) The National Coordinating Board for DisasterManagement with the Association of South-EastAsian Nations (ASEAN) countries, Australia,New Zealand, United Kingdom, Japan, the UnitedStates, UNDP, UNDRO, UNESCO, UNICEF,ILO, Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre of theAsian Institute of Technology (ADPC/AIT) andother countries/institutions on disaster prepar-edness and disaster management projects.

(7) The Department of Home Affairs with Japan onfire prevention and fire fighting.

(8) The Department of Forestry and the Ministry ofPopulation and Environment with the UnitedStates Forestry Service, Canada, and UNEP onforest protection and environment conservation.

The implementation of these projects has brought innew concepts and methodologies in disaster managementwhich have improved the national capability in prepared-ness to cope with disaster and emergency situations. Indo-nesia would appreciate receiving technical assistances fromother more experienced and better prepared countries, andsolicits ESCAP to initiate a coordinating effort for coop-erative projects within the Asian and Pacific region.

154Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

XI. DAMAGE FROM FLOODS AND MITIGATION MEASURES JN MALAYSIA

by Ferng Meow Chong1

A. Introduction

Malaysia has no other major natural disaster thanfloods.

Excessive precipitation is beyond human control.Man can only attempt to reduce the adverse effects ofexcessive precipitation after its occurrence. The objectiveof flood mitigation is therefore to prevent flooding of areaswhere it can cause damages and to prevent river watersfrom overflowing their natural banks after heavy rainfall.Flood mitigation methods would therefore vary from placeto place and it would be difficult to state that a methodwhich has been successful on one river will be the bestsolution for another river in the country.

Flood plains of rivers attract man to live on them,where water is readily available, the soil is usually fertileand access is easy. The historical development of settle-ments in Malaysia has involved the occupation of thefertile flood plains and tidal flats near estuaries in the earlydays. Many of the urban areas today are thus situatedwholly or partly in flood plains and coastal lands which aresubject to flooding from rivers.

B. Floods in Malaysia

1. Flood damages

In the past, major floods had caused loss of lives andextensive damage to crops and property. The more recentfloods which resulted in country-wide damage and distresswere those of 1967 and 1971. In the 1967 flood, the worstaffected state was Kelantan. About 6 000 sq.km. of landwas inundated and an estimated 360 000 people wereaffected by the flood. Fifty-five lives were lost. Damagein monetary terms was about $US78 million. In the 1971flood, the worst affected state was Pahang. Damage toproperty and crops amounted toS 38 million. Over 150 000people were affected by the flood and 24 people lost theirlives. In the same flood, the capital city of Kuala Lumpurwas also badly ravaged, with the damage estimated at SUS35 million. At many riverine areas, settlements and towns,flood risk still constituties a major obstacle to agriculturaland socio-economic development.

2. Flood control measures

As early as 1972, the Government, recognizing thesignificance and importance of flood control measures innational development, established aPermanentFloodControlCommission with the primary function of formulatingmeasures and long term plans for flood mitigation andrelief in the country.

In general, available measures for flood mitigationcan be listed under two categories, namely structural andnon-structural measures.

The optimum flood mitigation plan for any particularlocality usually involves several elements of structuraland/or non-structural measures. Detailed investigationand studies are necessary for the formulation of such floodmitigation plans.

(a) Structural measures

Structural measures are those involving engineeringworks for the control of floods, such as flood detentiondams, river improvement works, river diversions andconstruction of river embankments.

The implementation of such flood mitigation projectsemploying structural measures would require large com-mitmentof government funds. The government has formulateda definite long-term plan of flood mitigation works for thevarious flood-prone areas of the country. The programmewill benefit some 3 600 sq.km. where flood damages andlosses have generally been high. This will also provide arelatively flood-free environment for continued socio-economic development in both the rural and urban areas.

(b) Non-structural measures

Non-structural measures include flood forecastingand warning, land-use control and zoning and other legislativecontrol and management measures for reducing the severityand consequences of floods.

Flood forecasting and advance warning of impend-ing floods can considerably reduce flood loss and damageand above all loss of human lives.

Director of Hydrology, Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Kuala Lumpur.

XI. Damage from floods and mitigation measures in Malaysia 155

Prior to 1971, only rudimentary forms of flood fore-casting systems were used in a few river basins. Thesewere mainly based on the stage-correlation method wherebythe rising river stage at an upstream point is manuallyobserved and then used to predict the river stage downstreamwhere the populated area is prone to flooding. Warningwas issued when the predicted stage exceeded the criticallevel.

After the 1971 major flood, the need to mitigate theeffects of floods through improved flood forecasting andwarning systems became evident. Since then, flood fore-casting techniques and facilities were developed and es-tablished progressively for systematic real time flood fore-

casting in a number of river basins frequently affected byfloods. Figure VII shows the flood forecasting and warningpractice employed in Malaysia together with the govern-ment offices involved.

At present there are eight telemetric flood forecast-ing networks established in major river basins prone tosevere flooding. The networks provide for automatictransmission of rainfall and river stage data to the Departmentof Irrigation and Drainage state offices. There are also 119staff gauge stations, 60 flood warning boards and 35 sirenssituated at strategic locations to collect data and also togive forecasting and warning to people who will be affectedby flood.

156Pan Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

I

CON

KTJ

>ID FLOOD

TROL CENTRE

<VLA LUMPUR

MALAYSIAN

METEOROLOGICAL

SERVICES TO

ISSUE IMPENDING

STORM WARNING

/ MALAYSIA \

H I M - •.̂

J CONTROL I

NATIONAL

SECURITY

COUNCIL

MIN. DEFENCEOPERATION

ROOM

n

I—i

I WAKINUNU

| EVACUATION

' V CENTRE L . U AND RELIEFV r

STATE

CONTROL

CENTRE

I WORK11

|

^ 1

DISTRICT

CONTROL

CENTRE

DID STATE

OFFICE

J

^ 1

DID DISTRICT

OFFICE

Source: DID Department of Irrigation and Drainage

ACTIVATION OF SYSTEM.

FLOOD FORECASTING.

FLOOD WARNING, EVACUATION AND RELIEF WORK.

Figure VII. Flood forecasting and warning practice in Malaysia

XII. Hazards review, disaster prevention and preparedness programmes in Myanmar 157

XII. HAZARDS REVIEW, DISASTER PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESSPROGRAMMES IN MYANMAR

by Ohn Maung1 and San Thein2

A. Introduction

Myanmar is a country located in South-east Asia,covering an area of 676 578 sq.km. It is part of thepeninsula that protrudes into the Indian Ocean having along coast line on the Bay of Bengal. There are three well-marked geographical divisions, the Western hills, the CentralBelt, and the Shan plateau to the east, with southwardcontinuation of the highland in Tanintharyi Strip. Gener-ally, high grounds are in the north and the topography getslower towards the south of the country.

Myanmar has three marked seasons, namely: the hotseason (February to May); the south-west monsoon season(June to September); and the cold season (October toJanuary).

The types of disasters that are experienced in Myanmarare: tropical storms and cyclones; floods; fires (man-made);earthquakes; and landslides.

B. Tropical cyclones/storms and floods

In Myanmar, tropical storm is a natural disasterbrought on by geographical and weather conditions, caus-ing severe economic losses as well as loss of lives, alsolowering the morale of the people in disaster-prone areas.

Myanmar, having a long coastal line bordering onthe Bay of Bengal, is occasionally hit by tropical cyclonescausing widespread damages to life and property especiallywhen such storms are accompanied by storm surges. Cy-clones occur mostly during the period from June to November,but severe tropical storms are also experienced duringApril, May, October, November and December. The stormsduring the monsoon period are of moderate intensity andrarely reach hurricane force. Cyclonic storms of danger-ous severity occur most frequently during the transitionperiods of pre-and post-monsoon months. Many stormsoriginating in the South China Sea and the West Pacificenter Bay of Bengal through the Gulf to Thailand and theMalaysian Peninsula.

From the tropical storm records covering 108 yearssince 1877, the average number of storms in the Bay ofBengal is 12 per year. Once in every two years a storm andonce in three or four years a severe storm may cross thecoast of Myanmar. From the records, 90 per cent of thesestorms have crossed the Rakhine coast, 70 per cent theDeltaic coast and 3 per cent the Mon State. The losses ofproperty and life due to severe cyclones are presented intable 24.

Myanmar is a country with heavy rainfall and conse-quently floods of various intensities are common. Floodsoccur generally during the South-west monsoon season(June-September) and the most frequently flooded areasare lower Ayeyarwady Division and Delta Regions. UpperChindwin areas and Sagaing Division are occasionallyflooded due to heavy rainfall. Floods cause damages to thepaddy fields, crops, disruption of communication and hinderingof economic development activities.

The occurrence of earthquakes, landslides and fam-ine due to droughts are negligible in Myanmar when comparedwith the disasters mentioned above.

C. Tropical cyclone warning, dissemination and use

A tropical cyclone warning and dissemination systemhas been developed in the Department of Meteorology andHydrology, and as soon as conditions warrant, each step insystem is strictly followed.

The following types of warnings are being issued bythe Department of Meteorology and Hydrology as andwhen necessary.

(1) Cyclonic storm warnings;

(2) Squall warnings and storm surge warnings inassociation with cyclones;

(3) Strong winds outside the storm season;

(4) Untimely rainfall warnings;

1 Director General, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Yangon.

2 Director General, Department of Relief and Resettlement, Yangon.

Table 24. Damages due to cyclones in Myanmar

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

State/Division

Rakhine state

Rakhine state

Rakhine state

Rakhine state

Rakhine state

Rakhine state

Sagaing Division

Rakhine state

Ayeyarwady Division

Rakhine state

Ayeyarwady Division

Bago Division

Mon state

Towns/Townships

Sittwe

Kyaukphyu

Sittwe

Sittwe

Kyaukphyu

Sittwe

Yintnarbin

Sittwe

26 Townships

Gwa

Kyonpyaw

4 Townships

Bilin

OccurrenceDate

14-5-1884

26-4-1936

8-10-1968

24-10-1952

5-5-1967

5-10-1967

5-10-1967

10-5-1968

7-5-1975

4-5-1982

4-5-1982

4-5-1982

4-5-1982

Houses

_

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

132927

7 051

48976

18 832

7045

Households

_

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

243 937

7 360

49 157

18 876

7045

No. ofVictims

_

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

31018

242 490

101 331

35 294

Deaths

Hwnans

100

1991

1

4

-

2

20

1037

303

5

15

7

-

Animals

_

700

-

-

-

-

2700

17 022

9578

-

-

-

-

Cost ofLosses(millionKyat)

2.8

10.0

-

20.0

10.0

5.0

20.0

-

34.1

33.4

7.3

7.6

*2 »'

iia-1.

O. {?'

si

XII. Hazards review, disaster prevention and preparedness programmes in Myanmar 159

(5) Hood warnings (river floods and flash floods);and

(6) Storm surge warning.

The cyclone warning dissemination and usage, pre-pared by the Department, is as follows:

Warnings are issued by the Central Forecasting Of-ficer in Yangon. Warning for (5) is issued by the Hydro-logical Forecasting Office in Yangon. Regional Office atMandalay also issues flood warnings for Upper Myanmar.

All the Warnings shown in (1) to (5) are regularlybroadcast in the Weather News from the Voice of Myanmarand also published in daily Myanmar and English newspa-pers. These warnings are also announced on Yangontelevision together with the weather maps at 20:00 hoursMyanmar Standard Time (MST).

The most effective method of dissemination of weatherwarnings is by the radio broadcast of Voice of Myanmar.This Department is authorized to interrupt at any timeduring transmission period when a storm is threateningany Myanmar Port or when a serious flood is threateningcertain areas along a river. All news broadcasts includeweather news as a routine.

Post and Telecommunications Enterprise of Myanmarhas recently completed its modernization plan and now itis possible to use dial system telephones to nine majorcities in Myanmar including the coastal cities of Sittwe andPathein and Mandalay in Upper Myanmar.

Since 1975,28-SSB transceivers have been installedat meteorological station in Myanmar including coastalstations at Sittwe, Kyaukpyu, Gwa, Thandwe, Dawei, Beikand Victoria Point. With the Kyaukpyu radar alreadyinstalled in 1979 and the new APT now in use for receivingcloud pictures from meteorological satellites, this depart-ment is in a better position to issue storm warnings for thegeneral public, especially in the coastal regions. Thisdepartment issued timely warnings for Gwa cyclone ofMay 1982 and also for the cyclones of October and No-vember 1983.

In the case of cyclones threatening coastal cities, alltraffic including sea vessels, trains, cars and planes areinstructed to stop, through the State/Divisional Law andOrder Restoration Councils.

D. Prevention and preparedness measures

Under the Ministry of Social Welfare, the Governmenthas set up the Relief and Resettlement Department (RRD)

to cope with disasters. The role of RRD is not onlyundertaking post-disaster relief works but also dealingwith disaster planning and preparedness.

Myanmar has its system for disaster administration,based on its own social, cultural, political and administra-tive practices.

The principal aims of prevention measures againstnatural disasters in Myanmar are:

(1) To prevent or reduce loss of human lives;

(2) To prevent or mitigate losses to dwellings andother properties of the people; and

(3) To minimize damage to public properties.

The major task of RRD is to give relief assistanceintended only to meet the immediate requirements and tominimize the suffering of the affected people. This De-partment has also been carrying out activities related toprevention and preparedness for natural disasters in coop-eration with other respective departments such as the Me-teorology and Hydrology Department, Irrigation Department,Fire Services Department, Health Department, People'sPolice Force, Myanmar Construction Enterprises, SocialWelfare Department and Myanmar Red Cross Society.

Cyclones always bring high storm surges, causingsalt water intrusion into drinking water and cleaning water.The victims who had merely survived the cyclone are thendeprived of potable water as well as water for bathing.Drinking water tanks and usable water ponds help preventsuch situations. Pauktaw, Myebon, Minbya in theRakhineState, where such cyclone disasters frequently occur, haveeight such refuge shelters and water tanks. High mounds atPauk taw township can service seven villages, where nearly3 000 persons can take shelter in case of emergencies.

During the cyclonic event people take refuge aroundthe water tanks, shelters, for protection against stormsurges as well as strong winds that come with cyclonicstorms.

RRD has been conducting short-term training coursesin major towns of states and divisions on natural disasterprevention measures. These are organized for the trainingof trainers who in turn have to organize and conducttraining in their own regions under the supervision of theregional authorities concerned, so that the people maybecome familiar with and understand the natural disasterprevention measures. These training courses have beensuccessful and well-accepted by the people. To date 44training courses have been completed and there is a plan tocontinue this type of training course in the future.

160Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

As for disaster relief measures, emergency stockpil-ing centres (warehouses) have been established in majortowns of states and divisions for the speedy dispatch ofrelief goods to disaster affected areas. Thereare 16emergencystockpiling centres in the states and divisions storing reliefgoods such as household items, clothing, tarpaulin tents,fresh water tanks, and generators to be on hand for emer-gency use in case of disaster. Necessary procurement andreplenishment are made monthly, quarterly and annually atthese centres under the supervision and direction of RRD.

E. International assistance and cooperation innatural disaster reduction

RRD has been accepting international relief assistancewhen other countries and international organizations suchas UNDP, UNICEF, UNDRO etc. offer to donate reliefgoods to disaster victims. RRD accepts internationalassistance offered and then transports the goods to disas-ter-prone areas immediately and distributes them to thevictims under cooperation and supervision of regionalauthorities concerned.

Myanmar, being a member of United Nations, andRRD, under the Ministry of Social Welfare, have contributedto the annual funds of UNDRO, UNHCR and also donatedfunds and relief materials such as rice, salt and plywood for

the disaster victims of neighbouring countries and othernations.

Myanmar is fully aware of the importance of interna-tional cooperation in the field of research, training andexchanges of experiences. Myanmar always avails itselfof the opportunity to send its officials to training seminars,symposia and disaster management courses, such as at theAsian Institute of Technology (AIT) in Bangkok, and otheropportunities provided by such organizations as UNICEF,UNDP and JICA.

F. Conclusions and recommendations

The disaster preparedness situation in Myanmar isnot yet satisfactory. Measures for community prepared-ness for disasters are taken in the form of providing educa-tion and information to the general public through the massmedia. Training work is carried out and flood controlembankments have been constructed in some places butmore is needed to be done. Measures to reduce vulnerabil-ity such as more intensive river training, town planningand training of personnel for rescue and evacuation work,are still required. Therefore, it is necessary to organize,educate and motivate the people to cooperate in the field ofdisaster preparedness, prevention and relief.

XQI. Disaster preparedness and management in Pakistan 161

XIII. DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND MANAGEMENT IN PAKISTAN

by Sh. Zia Ud Din Ahmed'

A. Introduction

Pakistan lies between 23°N to 37°N latitude and61'E to 67°E longitude, having a total area of 888 000sq.km. with a population of approximately 120 million.The temperature in the country varies from a minimum of6°C in January to a maximum of 49°C in June. The climateis monsoonal, and the average rainfall recorded during themonsoon season is 200 mm, Pakistan has a varied geographicpattern having the second highest peak in the world withmajor mountainous ranges of the Himalayas, Karakuramand Hindukush in the north and a vast waterless desert inthe south. The areas constituting Pakistan are prone to avariety of disasters such as floods, droughts, earthquakesand landslides. While devastating earthquakes are a rarephenomenon, floods occur quite frequently and causewidespread damage. Droughts in the desert region alsocause considerable concern. Disaster management has,therefore, remained an important discipline in Pakistan.The country has a federal structure. Prevention of disas-ters and post-disaster relief and rehabilitation measures areessentially the responsibility of provincial governmentsconducted under supervisory guidelines issued by the fed-eral government.

B. Floods in Pakistan

Floods rank as the number one disaster in Pakistan.Severe floods have occasionally swept across the plains ofthe country, resulting in heavy loss of life and property.The main river system in the country is the Indus. TheIndus Basin contains five major rivers which flow in agenerally southerly direction from the Himalayan mountainranges and join together to form one river approximatelyhalf way between the mountains and the Arabian Sea.These rivers are prone to massive flooding from monsoonrains and snow melt while some extremely destructivefloods have been caused by landslides and collapse ofglacier dams blocking tributaries creating temporary bar-riers. Floods in recent history have become more frequent,partly due to reduced flow passage caused by irrigationand power projects leading to increased alluvial depositionand at some places raising of the river beds higher than the

adjacent flood plains. Table 25 presents the statisticalinformation on damages caused by floods in Pakistan from1973 to 1989.

Despite all the protective measures and flood fore-casting and warning systems, floods do occur quite fre-quently. The floods of 1988 were the latest in a serieswhich have had very few parallels in the history of Paki-stan. The floods occurred in two phases spread over aperiod of 80 days, causing the damages presented in table25.

The first phase of the floods was quite expected inview of the forecasts of 25 to 30 per cent more rainfall thannormal. The Provincial Governments had therefore takennecessary precautionary measures and they were ready toevacuate the affected people. In most of the areas, peoplewere evacuated before the floods actually hit. In otherareas where the people were affected by floods and rainwater, they were evacuated by boats with the assistance ofthe army. The only unexpected flood situating during thefirst phase occurred in the southern part of the countrywhere a 100 metre wide breach in a protective embank-ment on the left bank of the Indus River occurred on 17August 1988. Subsequently the width of the breach in-creased to 600 metres and the water escaping through itinundated a vast area (approximately 162 000 ha). Fiftyrelief camps had to be established to provide temporaryshelter and necessary relief assistance to about 90 000people out of more than 150 000 evacuated from thoseareas. Through the joint efforts of civil authorities and thearmy the breach was repaired completely after 12 days ofheroic effort. The overall situation during first phase wasquite alarming in view of the vast area affected and theresultant dislocation of population and damages caused tolife and property.

The second phase of the floods commenced on 25September 1988 as a result of heavy and continuous rain-fall in the catchment areas. The devastation caused duringthe second phase was mainly caused by the return ofpeople who had been evacuated to their homes. While theywere recovering from the shocks of the first phase, theywere caught almost unaware. The element of surprise inthe second phase could be attributed to many factors.

Director General, Emergency Relief Cell, Pakistan.

162Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

Table 25. Damages caused by floods in Pakistan, 1973-1989

LOSSES/DAMAGES

Villages affected

People affected(million)

Total areaaffected(million ha)

Cropped areaaffected(million ha)

Houses damaged(million)

Persons dead

Cattlelost (head)

1973

9719

4.80

4.2

1.6

0.39

474

53 961

1975

8 628

2.25

3.5

0.7

3.32

126

17 924

1976

18 390

9.79

8.3

1.8

1.00

425

29 242

1988

21019

4.73

4.2

1.6

0.74

570

33 341

1989

25188

1.33

1.0

0.7

0.09

136

5 924

Timely detailed information on rainfall and dischargeswas not available from across the border and therefore nowarning was issued to the public. The radar at Sialkot (inPakistan) could not measure exactly the rainfall in thecatchment areas due to its range limitations. The telemet-ric gauges installed at rim stations at Marala on riverChenab and at Jassar on river Ravi had been overrun byfloods and were no longer in working condition. Therewere a few communication lapses also due to defectiveequipment. Most of the damages during the second phasehowever occurred upstream in Punjab; the downstreamareas had sufficient advance notice to handle the situation.

Besides evacuating the flood affected people, theprovincial governments, responsible for providing tempo-rary shelter and relief to these people, set up a total of 745relief camps during the two phases where the affectedpeople were provided with medical facilities and basicnecessities of life. The cattle accompanying the affectedpeople were also provided with fodder. In the case ofBaluchistan, where a large number of people were strandedin one area, relief assistance was airdropped. Funds pro-vided from £he federal resources and from provincial sourceswere 55 million rupees and 470 million rupees, respec-tively. The governments of Punjab and Sind also declaredthe flood affected areas as calamity stricken and remittedfunds from taxes, causing considerable loss of revenue tothe government. Other cash grants from various sourcesand interest-free loans to stricken farmers were also pro-vided.

C. Droughts in Pakistan

While the northern and western areas of Pakistanreceive plenty of rainfall with abundant water resources,the southern region is spread over a vast desert. The areais comprised of shifting sand dunes with very little freshgroundwater resources and scanty irregular rainfall. Thearea is the least developed in the country, having very littlecommunication infrastructure. The inhabitants of this arealargely depend on rainfall for their crops and cattle and incase of failure of the rains they sometimes have to abandontheir homes in search of food and water. The desert areasin the Punjab and Sind experienced a long rainless periodspread over three consecutive years from 1985 to 1987,which caused considerable loss of life as well as damage tothe economy.

In the Punjab, the average annual rainfalls were,223.5 mm, 85.1 mm, and 96.0 mm during 1984-85, 1985-86 and 1986-87, respectively. In the Sind, average annualrainfall varied between 125 mm to 200 mm during thatperiod, affecting an area of 27 737 sq. km. and a populationof 8 million. In Punjab 31 500 sq. km. and 71 000 peoplewere affected. Subsequently, Arid Zone DevelopmentAuthorities were created in Punjab and Sind to develop theareas towards meeting their basic essential requirements.

D. Earthquakes

Though earthquakes occur rarely in Pakistan theytake a heavy toll in terms of loss of life and property. In

XIII. Disaster preparedness and management in Pakistan 163

1935, before the creation of Pakistan, an earthquake ofsevere intensity (magnitude 7.5) struck Quetta city, killing35 000 people. The region is still an active seismic zone.Since its creation in 1947 Pakistan has faced five majorearthquakes. The severest of these (magnitude 6.00) hitnorthern areas of Pakistan in the Karakuram range on 28December 1974. The shock of the earthquake was felt overan area of 300 000 sq km. The earthquake killed about1 000 people and permanently disabled 1 845 people while17 677 houses were completely demolished and 2 313houses were partly damaged in addition to the loss of63 393 head of cattle. The Karakuram Highway alongsidethe Indus was severely damaged due to rockfalls, land-slides or subsidence at many places. Improvised irrigationchannels were destroyed and most of the springs went dry.

A survey of the damages caused by this earthquakeindicated that the main factors responsible for damage toproperty were inferior construction, use of mud mortarinstead of lime or cement, closely and haphazardly builthouses. This was in fact the state of construction in mostof rural areas in Pakistan.

While it may not be possible to forecast earthquakesexactly, efforts can be made to mitigate their effects bygetting information as much in advance as possible. Pa-kistan has therefore set up a chain of six seismologicalstations with headquarters at Quetta. The network iscontrolled by the Pakistan Meteorological Department. Aseismic observatory also functions at Tarbela. There ishowever, a large gap in the earthquake monitoring systemas the seismically active belts of Chitral, Gilgit, Makranand Chaghi are without any observatory. Therefore, inorder to further strengthen the network, a seismic arraysystem is being set up at Islamabad with the help of WMO.For quick analysis of data and prompt dissemination ofearthquake information, strong motion seismographs andaccelerographs would be required.

As already stated, in Pakistan earthquakes have mostlyaffected the less developed mountainous areas almost in-accessible through ordinary means of communication evenunder normal circumstances, owing to the extremely diffi-cult terrain and severely cold weather during winter. Theuse of heavy machinery in removal of debris is thereforerendered impossible, adversely affecting the relief andrescue operations. The conduct of relief operations inunaccessible mountainous areas would be a good study foran international group during the IDNDR.

E. Disaster prevention and preparedness

Disasters usually occur without warning. Everycalamity big or small leaves behind a trail of miseryseriously affecting the social, cultural and economic order.

Unless the managing body is well organized and alert, itmay cause widespread panic and misery. How promptlythe order is restored is the test of the working machinery.It, therefore, becomes imperative that the emergencymanagement services are well organized having essentialinfrastructure on the ground, adequately equipped andtrained to handle emergency situations effectively.

1. At federal level

At federal level, the "Emergency Relief Cell" func-tions under the Cabinet Division for handling and coordi-nating disaster efforts. The Cell is headed by a full-timeDirector General who also acts as the focal point at nationaland international levels. The Emergency Relief Cell isresponsible for coordinating disaster preparedness meas-ures, relief and rehabilitation activities and inter-provincialand inter-ministerial work related to the national disasters,in accordance with the national disaster plan, establishedin 1974. The plan has provisions to establish procedures,prescribe organizational set-up, fix primary responsibilitiesand support functions of concerned implementing agenciesand standardize the procedures for the monitoring of dis-aster operations. The major functions of the EmergencyRelief Cell are:

- To maintain an inventory of essential relief goodsincluding medicines, tents, blankets, and emer-gency rations for immediate despatch. Twowarehouses at Islamabad and Karachi are avail-able at present with adequate storage of reliefitems.

To make available a squadron of four reliefhelicopters for emergency duty towards airdrop-ping/supply of relief goods, evacuation of ma-rooned personnel and other casualties.

- To maintain Prime Minister's Disaster ReliefFund for providing immediate relief to disaster-stricken people anywhere in Pakistan.

To coordinate relief operations with provincialgovernments and provide additional financial aswell as other assistance out of federal funds.

- To coordinate efforts and dispatch relief goodsabroad based on the decision of the Government.

- To act as a focal point for international reliefand coordination of efforts with foreign donoragencies when foreign assistance is required.

Since its creation in 1970, the Emergency Relief Cellhas handled the following major disasters involving wide-spread loss of life and property, besides a number of small-scale disasters which continue to hit different parts of the

164Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

country every year: floods (1973,1975,1976,1988,1989);droughts (1974,1984/85-1986/87); and earthquakes (1974,1982).

The national disaster plan mentioned above em-braces all disaster situations and envisages the use of allavailable resources, governmental, semi-governmental andnon-governmental. Being action oriented, functional andflexible, the plan is capable of meeting disaster situationsof various intensity as well as multiple contingencies.

Disaster management is organized at national, pro-vincial, district and sub-divisional levels by designatingspecific officials as coordinators/managers.

2. At provincial and district levels

The provincial and district disaster plans are almosta replica of the National Disaster Plan, which has beenadopted at these levels with a few minor modifications. Infact the Emergency Relief Cell prepared a model DistrictDisaster Plan and furnished it to provincial governmentsfor adoption. These plans contain background materialregarding the disaster most frequently faced by the respectiveprovinces and district. While the national disaster planaims at meeting all disaster situations, the provincial anddistrict disaster plans have been prepared essentially tomeet flood disasters, but cover other disaster situationsalso. Like the National Disaster Plan, the provincial anddistrict disaster plans also indicate the primary responsi-bilities and principal actions of the federal as well asprovincial departments.

F. Operational measures in flood management

Flood management planning in Pakistan includesboth structural and non-structural measures. Structuralmeasures pertain to construction of dams, protective bunds,diversions, channelizing and taming of rivers, while non-structural measures mainly rest upon providing an accurateand timely flood forecasting and warning system. Floodsin Pakistan are essentially caused by heavy monsoon rainsover the upper catchment of the rivers generally across theborder. The agencies at federal and provincial level whichget involved in this operation are:

- At the Federal level: Federal Flood Commis-sion, Ministry of Water and Power; EmergencyRelief Cell, Cabinet Division; Engineer-in-ChiefDirectorate, General Headquarters; PakistanMeteorological Department; Ministry of Foodand Agriculture (Deputy Inspector General,Forests); Water and Power Development Authority(WAPDA); Pakistan Commissioner for IndusWaters, Lahore; National Engineering Services

Pakistan (Pvt) Limited (NESPAK); and Armywhen required.

- At the Provincial level: Irrigation Department -Chief Engineer, Drainage and Water; RevenueDepartment - Relief Commissioner; Communi-cations and Works Department - Chief Engineer;Divisional District and Sub-Divisional Admin-istration; Meteorological Departmeift; and PoliceDepartment.

In order to mitigate the damaging effects of floods,the Federal Flood Commission and Provincial governmentsadopt all possible preventive measures within the availableresources. Dredging of river beds is the best way of tamingrivers and containing flood water within regular channels.However, in view of heavy costs involved, coupled withpaucity of resources, the protective schemes generallyenvisage erection of protective embankments and spurs atselected places. Pakistan has been seeking assistance fromdonor countries and multilateral donor agencies towardsimproving structural and non-structural facilities.

The extent of damages can be reduced by obtainingadvance information through the latest data collectingsystem. Data collected through this system are applied bythe Pakistan Meteorological Department into two compu-terized Rainfall-Runoff and Flood-Routing models and theresultant flood forecasts are provided to the flood fightingand relief agencies. The World Meteorological Organiza-tion and United Nations Development Programme haveassisted the Pakistan Meteorological Department in settingup a quantitative precipitation measurement radar of 5.6cm at Sialkot for gauging rainfall in the catchment areas.While the radar at Sialkot can cover the catchment areas ofthree western rivers only i.e. Indus, Chenab and Jhelum, itcannot satisfactorily cover the catchment areas of threeeastern rivers i.e. Ravi, Sutlej and Bias. It is, therefore,now planned to install, with the assistance of Asian Devel-opment Bank, another radar of 10 cm at Lahore which willimprove forecasting capability of the country. Recently,the Japanese Government has also agreed to assist Paki-stan Meteorological Department in the installation of tworadars of 5 cm at Islamabad and Karachi. These radarsshall be able to monitor precipitation and approachingweather within a radius of 360 kilometres.

The weather reports and forecasts broadcast by theSoviet Government from Tashkent Radio are also a tre-mendous help to Pakistan Meteorological Department inforecasting approaching weather in winters. The PakistanMeteorological Department also uses the surface and up-per area meterological charts and cloud pictures obtainedfrom United States Weather Satellites to forecast quantitativeprecipitation. The Government of India also providesinformation over telephone regarding rainfall and river

XIII, Disaster preparedness and management in Pakistan 165

discharges on hourly to six hourly basis depending on theflood situation, in addition to information provided throughpostal telegrams and radio broadcasts. The Pakistani andIndian Commissioners for Indus Water also hold frequentmeetings with each other for exchange of such informationin accordance with the Indus Basin Treaty.

G. Relief

In view of the costs involved, Pakistan can ill-affordto maintain vast relief organizations at all levels, separatefrom normal administrative machinery. As a result, mostof the relief duties are performed by various Governmentdepartments on a part-time basis. Like the small full-timeorganization of the Emergency Relief Cell, the provincialgovernments also have a limited set-up. A ProvincialRelief Department is usually headed by the Senior Mem-ber Board of Revenue of the province who performs theseduties in addition to his main functions in his above referredcapacity. Like the Emergency Relief Cell at the federallevel, the Provincial Relief Departments are responsiblefor coordinating pre-disaster preparedness measures andpost-disaster relief and rehabilitation operations. It is atthe level of district administration and below that disastersituations have to be met and fought physically. Instead ofhaving separate relief organizations at these levels, theGovernment officials holding various posts in differentdepartments automatically assume relief duties in accordancewith a pre-planned scheme. At the district and sub-divisionlevel, the Deputy Commissioner and Assistant Commissionerrespectively act as the focal point and coordinate theactivities of the officials of the concerned implementingagencies e.g. Irrigation Department, Health Department,Animal Husbandry, Pakistan Meteorological Department,Water and Power Development Authority, Buildings andRoads Department, Pakistan Railways, Food Department,Directorate of Social Welfare, Information Department,Education Department, oil and gas companies, Public HealthEngineering Department, Post Office Department, Police,Civil Defence, and Army. Various officials perform pri-mary duties and take principal actions as outlined andassigned to them in disaster plans pertaining to each district.

The shortage of disaster managers is to a large extentmet by calling the Army in aid to civil administration. TheEngineering Directorate of the Pakistan Army has elabo-rate disaster plans of its own in respect of different areas ofthe country. As the flood season approaches every year,the Engineer Directorate operates a flood relief controlcentre in the General Headquarters for monitoring theflood situation and coordinating relief and rescue opera-tions involving Army units. The Directorate also holdsflood relief coordination conferences before and after thefloods every year. The units earmarked for flood dutyremain in touch with the Flood Forecasting and Warning

Centre, and with flood control rooms operating at provin-cial and district level. The disaster managers at provincial,district and sub-divisional levels can seek assistance fromthese units for the purpose of rescue and evacuation whereverrequired. Breaching of protective bunds at the placesdecided by the civil authorities is also carried out by theArmy using explosives. While restoration of infrastructuraldamage after the floods is the responsibility of the concernedcivil departments, the Army helps those departments inemergency repair of the communication and transport net-work during the floods.

H. Conclusions and recommendations

In the light of the lessons learned from flood experi-ences in the past, Pakistan has considerably improved itsflood warning and flood fighting systems. Defective tel-emetric gauges have been repaired, and protective em-bankments are being looked after properly in order toensure that these do not collapse during floods. Foreignexpertise and financial assistance will help in achievingPakistan's objectives speedily and in reducing the miseriesof the population.

When more than one country is involved, close coop-eration among them is necessary to exchange informationwell in time. Pakistan's direct links with India for receiptof information regarding rainfall and river discharge are anexample of such cooperation.

Use of modern technology with trained and responsi-ble manpower is essential for operating any warning sys-tem. Pakistan is installing additional radars to meet thisobjective.

Timely warning to the potential victims of disasterssuch as floods can reduce damages to a great extent. Thewarning should contain full information so that no panic iscreated.

Civil works, embankments etc. should be kept in aproper state of repair and maintenance even if no floodsoccur for many years. The protective embankment onIndus River gave in due to its poor maintenance. The ratholes helped the flood water to penetrate into the embank-ment and wash it away. It may be difficult to act on thissuggestion because of resource constraints but it appearsuseful to consider that provision for pre-disaster prepared-ness arrangements for floods be based on the benchmark ofthe biggest past flood.

Consciousness about disaster prevention and controlshould be part of the thinking of planners responsible forconstruction, remodelling and repair of infrastructure. Railtracks, roads and bridges in low lying areas need to bereconstructed on raised ground.

166Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

XIV. THE GREAT FLOOD IN THE HAN RIVER BASIN, REPUBLICOF KOREA, IN SEPTEMBER 1990

by Kyung-Sup Shin1

A. Introduction

The Han River flows through the capital city of theRepublic of Korea, Seoul. Korea experienced a great floodat the Han River basin, in the middle of the Korean Peninsula,from 10 to 11 September 1990. The two-day rainfall wasabout 400 mm throughout the basin with a maximum of584 mm at the mountainous area, in the upper catchment ofthe river basin. This two day's rainfall amounted to about30-40 per cent of the annual average rainfall in the region.Although it was not the maximum rainfall recorded withintwo days in Korea, it caused the most disastrous flood,because the rainfall was concentrated on a single basin,and the resulting flood hit the metropolitan area, and theriver banks were breached near a highly populated area.

During this period, the Korea Meteorological Serv-ice (KMS, now Korea Meteorological Administration)issued early heavy rainfall warnings, and the Han RiverFlood Forecasting Centre under the Ministry of Constructionissued flood warnings along the Han river Basin. Never-theless, the flood claimed 157 lives, rendered 187 193homeless, and caused about $US 570 million propertydamages. The river level measured at Seoul was thesecond highest on record since measurements started in1900. (The highest record was in 1925.) Hydrologistsestimated that the 1990 flood might have had a 200-yearfrequency though this may not be totally clear because ofoperation of seven dams along the Han River upstream ofSeoul.

The purpose of this report is to discuss the meteoro-logical environment that brought the heavy rainfall, thewarnings issued and the disaster prevention and prepared-ness (DPP) activities undertaken, and present somerecom-mendations, and share this experience with others forfuture planning to mitigate disasters related to floods.

B. Meteorological conditions during the floodevent of 1990

The summary of meteorological conditions experi-enced during this major rainfall event were as follows:

The heavy rainfall was caused by Typhoon Dot,which landed at central China in the course ofweakening and transformed into an extra-tropi-cal cyclone.

Strong convergence band was formed in thecentral Korean Peninsula between the south-eastwind driven by the Typhoon Dot and the north-west wind driven by the continental high pres-sure zone.

The two systems were almost stationary duringthe two heavy rainfall days.

C. Warning and DPP activities

1. DPP structure in Korea

The Anti-Calamity Headquarters (ACHQ) under theMinistry of Construction is responsible for all decisionsfor DPP activity. The KMS and Flood Forecasting Centresare responsible for warning of heavy rainfall and flood,respectively. The Water Resources Corporation (WRC) isresponsible for routine dam operations but with the per-mission of ACHQ in case of flood.

2. Heavy rain warning

Table 26 summarizes the regular and special weatherforecasts and warnings issued by the KMS for the period,10-11 September 1990. The KMS had forecasted rainfallfive days earlier and expected heavy rainfall one day inadvance. The KMS issued a special public guidance at4:30,10 September, before the rainfall started, on expectingheavy rain. This was followed by a heavy rain watch(10:00) and warning (18:00). Figure VIII shows the accu-mulated rainfall amount during the period with one hourinterval at Seoul and the warnings issued to the public.

The Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) outputs,produced by employing the models used by KMS and the

Director, Numerical Weather Prediction Division, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul.

XIV. The great flood in the han river basin republic of Korea in September 1990 167

Forecast

Table 26. Summary of weather forecasts and warnings for the heavy rainperiod, 10-11 September 1990.

10 September 11 September Remarks

120 h

96 h

72 h

48 h

24h

cloudy and rain

cloudy and rain

cloudy and rain

cloudy and frequentrain

cloudy and rain

cloudy and rain

cloudy

cloudy and frequentrain

cloudy and rain

heavy rainpossibility

80-120 mm

Time Type of warning Content

10 Sept./04:30

10 Sept./10:00

10 Sept./18:00

Special publicguidance

expecting heavy rain, prepare

Heavy rain watch 80-150 mm for next 24 h

Heavy rain warning 150-250 mm for next 24 h

Lots of special public guidance during the flood

Sept. 10 Sept. 11

Time (local time)

Figure VIII. Accumulated rainfall in Seoul during 10-11 September 1990 and

the warnings issued to the public

168Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

Japan Meteorological Agency, predicted rainfall area andrain pattern fairly well; however, they underestimated therainfall intensity. The KMS model generally predictedabout 60 per cent of the total rainfall amount, and the JMAmodel predicted about 75 per cent of the total. However,the NWP outputs helped forecasters greatly to give earlywarnings of the heavy rainfall.

3. Flood warning

The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) issued floodwatch and warning with the information on water levels ateach dam and KMS forecasts. The flood watch was issuedat 02:00 LST 11 September along the Han River, and it wasupgraded to flood warning at 07:00 LST 11 September1990.

4. Dam operation

There are seven dams along the Han River upstreamof Seoul. Three of them are multi-purpose type floodcontrol dams which have large reservoir capacities, and theother four are for hydropower. During the rainy seasonfrom 1 May to 20 September, there is a regulation that thewater level at each dam should be maintained below acertain level to provide for flood storage. However, two ofthree large dams apparently did not maintain this level.The water level at the largest dam was 1.3 m above, and atthe third largest one was 2.2 m above the limit for theseason. This was as a preparation for the dry season whichnormally starts in September (officially 20 September),but eventually reduced the flood storage capacities of thetwo dams during this flood.

5. Pumping of flood waters

In the metropolitan Seoul area, at certain times dur-ing this flood the water level in the Han River was higher

than the elevation of some low areas. The Governmentoperates a number of pumping stations at these low areas.However in many places, pumping was not enough toprevent flooding due to the backwater effect from the riverduring the flood. Apparently some pumps also malfunctioned.

6. Bank loss

The worst event of the flood was the breach of a bankof the Han River, which occurred at dawn on 12 September1990 when the rainfall had ceased but the river water wasat its highest level. The location was the farm lands in asuburb of Seoul. Although this area was not as denselypopulated as at the metropolitan area, it was still denseenough to sustain considerable damage. Fortunately, thewatching teams discovered the first piping at the river bankbefore total failure, thus saving the lives of the peopleliving nearby.

In the metropolitan area, banks were recently con-structed and well designed. But the bank that was breachedhad been built with clay 60 years ago. It has been sug-gested that there may be lots of 'rat holes' existing insidethe bank, which may have been the cause of piping.

D. Conclusions

This flood event may have been the potentially mostdisastrous one in this century in Korea. However, it isbelieved that although not totally satisfactory the earlywarning and the DPP activities reduced the damage con-siderably. It is also believed that more efforts to developtechniques and improve systems in meterology and DPPcould further reduce flood damages. Dams and reservoirsshould also be operated more prudently.

XV. Solomon Islands information paper 169

XV. SOLOMON ISLANDS INFORMATION PAPER

A. Introduction

The Solomon Islands are located in the south-west Pa-cific, which places the country within two hazardous regions ofthe world, namely the tropical cyclone belt of the southernhemisphere and the so-called Pacific ring of fire (seismicactivity belt). The country has, therefore, been exposed not onlyto tropical cyclones and cyclone-generated hazards but also toearthquake-generated hazards as well. The tropical cycloneseason runs from November to April the following year.

The Solomon Islands are somewhat fortunate, owingto the fact that most tropical cyclones in the area form inthe country's territorial waters, before moving south-easttowards Vanuatu, north-east towards Fiji or south-westtowards the Queensland coast of Australia.

The country at various times experienced the effectsof natural disasters such as tropical cyclones. In facttropical cyclones have been the most regular type of disas-ter. In the recorded history of the country, tropical cycloneNamu was by far the biggest single natural disaster expe-rienced in the Solomon Islands. Cyclone Namu left theSolomon Islands with 103 people dead or missing, 90 000people homeless and $A 100 million worth of damages.The long-term economic effects resulting from damage tocash crops and industries by the disaster are still felt in thecountry at the present time.

B. Forecasting and warning

The Solomon Islands do not currently have the knowhow, technology, and the resources necessary to carry outeffectively forecasting of disasters. The country is stilldependent on foreign countries for its requirements in thisarea. The Solomon Islands have plans to develop their owntropical cyclone forecasting unit in the period 1991-1992,depending on availability of foreign assistance.

The country to date receives its tropical cyclonewarnings from Fiji, for the area east of latitude 160°E, andfrom Brisbane and Darwin in Australia for the area west of16O°E. The warnings are received by the Ministry ofAviation and Tourism, Meteorological Service. The Mete-orological Service informs the National Disaster Counciland warnings are broadcasted nationwide by the SolomonIslands Broadcasting Cooperation.

The National Disaster Council can activate the Na-tional Operations Centre, and directs/controls all opera-tions.

The communities at risk are informed by NationalBroadcasting Cooperation, while disaster officials of Na-tional and Provincial Disaster Committees as well as non-government organizations are informed by facsimile, tel-ephone or through the Royal Solomon Islands Police radionetwork.

Risk assessment is an area where the country stillneeds foreign assistance. A limited amount of work wasdone on part of the Province of Guadalcanal, for land-slides, and flood affected areas of the province after CycloneNamu. A great deal of work is yet to be done beforedisaster management planning can be advanced. This iscertainly another area where the country needs expertadvice and manpower.

C. Disaster prevention and preparedness

Disaster preparedness is the responsibility of theNational Disaster Council under the National Disaster Act,in liaison with government ministries, provincial govern-ments, semi-governmental and non-governmental organi-zations. The National Disaster Management Office isresponsible for overseeing plans, organization and otherpreparedness matters.

Officials both from the Council and Governmentfrom time to time attend regional seminars, workshops andother disaster-related activities. In recent years a numberof internal disaster preparedness workshops were held fordisaster officials. In-country training is planned for imple-mentation throughout the seven provinces in 1991.

The subject of disaster preparedness and preventionin general is being addressed in a weekly radio programmecalled Public Awareness on Disasters, which is broadcastnationwide.

Disaster prevention in building construction/civilworks in urban areas is controlled by the Governmentthrough regulations. The building constructions in ruralcommunities are very much controlled by traditional standardsor a mixture of both western and traditional methods. Thisleaves the rural communities very much vulnerable totropical cyclones, floods and other hazards.

1. National Disaster Plan 19S7

This National Disaster Plan was developed after CycloneNamu, which struck the country in May 1986 and was the mostdestructive disaster in the recorded history of the country.

170Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

Although the National Disaster Plan 1982 existedbefore cyclone Namu, it was found that the Plan did notwork because the magnitude of destruction during Namuwas so extensive.

The NDP 1987, is the current plan of the SolomonIslands, and although a major disaster of the magnitude ofNamu has not again struck the country, this plan has beenthe major plan since 1987 and implementation of its re-quirements is still being carried out.

In accordance with the requirements of the NDP1987, the seven provincial governments of the Solomonshave been encouraged to revise or develop their ownprovincial disaster plans. The development of provincialdisaster plans is being addressed in 1991.

In the Solomon Islands the National Disaster Coun-cil is the central decision-making and coordinating body intime of disaster, and the Council exercises the control/coordination of preparedness, operations and recovery asoutlined in the functional diagram of organizations pre-sented in figure IX.

2. National Disaster Act 1989

The National Disaster Act 1989, was formulatedfollowing the experiences during the cyclone Namu disas-ter in 1986. The Act established the National DisasterCouncil, a body which is given powers to assure completecontrol of all emergency operations during a major disas-ter, after a State of Disaster Order is declared by theMinister under the Act.

The National Disaster Council in turn is given legalpowers to establish Provincial Disaster Committees ineach provincial government. The Provincial DisasterCommittees are answerable directly to the National Disas-ter Council in all matters pertaining to disasters.

The Act also aims to give legal effect to the NationalDisaster Plans.

The functions assigned to the National Disaster Counci Iunder the Act are:

to provide and render advice to the Minister onall matters relating to disasters;

to approve and co-ordinate all activities neces-sary in regard to preparedness, response andrecovery;

- to assume full and complete control in opera-tions connected with disaster,

to provide and render financial assistance toProvincial Disaster Committees.

The Act also empowers the Minister to establish aNational Disaster Management.Office. This office hasbeen established and staffed, in order to administer theprovisions of the Act, the National Disaster Plan andpolicies set by the National Disaster Council.

The functions assigned to the National DisasterManagement Officer, under the Act are;

to be responsible to the Council in the adminis-tration of the Act, the national disaster plan andother plans which relate to national disaster;

to ensure that the national disaster plan and otherplans referred to in the above paragraph areperiodically reviewed and updated;

to keep and maintain proper accounts and suchregisters as the Council directs;

to prepare the annual reports and other reports orbulletins as the Council may direct;

to ensure that the provinces are in a state ofpreparedness to execute the provincial disasterplans, if the need arises; and

to perform any other functions that may be as-signed to it by the Council.

D. Recommendations

To address the problems as to be able to implementthe plans properly, the following are set down as priorities:

(1) Training should be undertaken both in-countryand overseas;

(2) Public awareness and preparedness must be acontinuous programme;

(3) Mitigation/prevention must be integrated intothe National Development Planning of the Gov-ernment;

(4) Public awareness and preparedness at the provinciallevel must be upgraded;

(5) Assistance must be sought from overseas fund-ing organizations or governments for medium-and long-term programmes;

(6) Periodic review of functions and the disasterplan need to be implemented;

(7) Non-governmental organizations should be in-volved in these programmes.

XV. Solomon Islands information paper 171

Minister Responsible

National Disaster -Council

NationalDisasterManagementOffice

PREPAREDNESS OPERATIONS

Central ControlGroup

GovernmentDepartments/NGOs

ProvincialDisasterCommittees

National EmergencyOperations Centre

GovernmentDepartments/NGOs

ProvincialDisasterCommittees

InternationalAssistance

RECOVERY

TechnicalAdvisoryTeam

GovernmentDepartments/NGOs

ProvincialDisaster —Committees

Ward CommitteesArea Chiefs/Leaders

COMMUNITIES DISASTERAREAS

RECOVERYPROGRAMMES

Figure IX. Functional diagram of organization for disaster prevention and preparedness in the Solomon Islands

172Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

XVI. NATURAL DISASTERS IN THAILAND

A. Major natural disasters in Thailand

Natural disasters in Thailand are mainly caused bytropical cyclones and floods, droughts and earthquakes.Some other natural disasters which occasionally occurredwithin the country are landslides and forest fires. Themajor landslide episode in southern Thailand during No-vember 1988 was due to the effect of deforestation and avery heavy rainfall event.

The details of the natural disasters caused by thosethree sources are described below.

1. Tropical cyclones and floods

On the average, Thailand is annually struck by fourtropical cyclones which can be both beneficial and harmfulto the country. Generally, the cyclones are scaled down totropical depressions when they enter Thailand. Tropicalcyclones, particularly tropical depressions, provide beneficialrains for agriculture and occasionally bring relief to dryspells. However, tropical storms, especially typhoons,produce copious rainfall, and consequently, cause highpotential for flooding. Therefore, they can have a disastrousimpact on both public safety and agriculture.

Table 27 shows the frequency of the tropical cyclonesentering Thailand over a 40-year period (1951-1990), whichreached a total of 143. Tropical cyclones occur with highestfrequency in October (44 out of 143) and lowest frequency inApril (1 out of 143). January through March is a period that thecountry is free from cyclones. During the period 1981 to 1990,the maximum numberof five tropical cyclones was experiencedin 1983, while only one tropical cyclone entered the country in1981,1987 and 1988.

From the analysis of the 13-year (1975-1987) trackdata of tropical cyclones experienced in the region, it wasobserved that most of the cyclones originated in the PacificOcean and/or the South China Sea and moved westwardtoward Viet Nam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand. DuringJune-August, the mean track of the cyclones would lieacross the north-eastern and northern parts of Thailand.The mean track during September-October moved south-ward across the central and eastern parts, upper portion ofsouthern Thailand and lower portion of the north-east.During the end of the year, November-December, the trackmoved further south from Chumphon. Prior to the onset ofthe south-west monsoon season, April-May, most of thecyclones developed in the Indian Ocean and/or the Andaman

Sea and moved through the Bay of Bengal towards Myanmarand Thailand. The mean track of the cyclones during thesemonths would lie across the western part of the country, inthe vicinity of Ratchaburi, Kanchanaburi, Tak (Mae Sot)and Mae Hong Son. The cyclones entering Myanmarwould have great impact on the central part of Thailand,especially in the vicinity of Bangkok Metropolis. Heavyrainfall and resulting flooding would occur, as in May1986, in the capital city.

Most of the 143 tropical cyclones entering Thailandsince 1951 were tropical depression. Only seven full-sizedtropical storms and one typhoon have been recorded dur-ing this 40-year period. Extensive damage to crops andproperty was caused over those areas that were hit by theeight tropical cyclones.

The severity of damages caused by cyclones scaledup from tropical storms to typhoons vary according to theirintensity and wind speed. Typhoon Gay of 1989, withwind speed of 120 km/hr at its centre, was the first and theonly typhoon that Thailand has experienced in the last 40years.

The cyclone of 1989 first originated in the lowerportion of the Gulf of Thailand, 270 km east of Songkhla,on 1 November. At 13:00 on 2 November, the depressionhad upgraded its strength to be classified as tropical stormand at 16:00 on 3 November, was finally classified astyphoon. The typhoon, named 'Gay', moved west-north-westward towards the upper portion of Southern Thailand,at the border of Chumphon and Prachuap Kiri Khan. Thetyphoon landed and hit two districts of Chumphon ataround 22:30 on 4 November. The details and the esti-mates of the loss caused by typhoon 'Gay' are shown intable 28. Severe damages to property (private and public)and loss of human life and livestock were extensivelyrecorded in those provinces in southern Thailand and someprovinces in the eastern part.

2. Dry spells and drought

Dry spells usually occur shortly before the beginningof the rainy season (around May) or during the rainyseason. If a dry spell lasts longer than usual, a drought willoccur. The severity of the drought depends upon the lengthof the dry spell. Upper Thailand is susceptible to drought,which is more frequent in the northern and north-easternparts. Both regions are prone to the drought problem dueto their geographic locations.

XVI. Natural disasters in Thailand 173

Table 27. Frequency of tropical cyclones entering Thailand from 1951 to 1990

195M960

1961-1970

1971-1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Freq.

Average

(average)(total)

(average)(total)

(average)(total)

Apr

0

0.11

00

1

0.03

May

0

0.22

0.22

1

1

6

0.15

Jun

0.11

0.22

0.11

1

1

6

0.15

Jul

0.22

0.33

0.44

9

0.23

Aug

0.22

0.88

0.44

1

1

16

0.40

Sep

0.66

1.414

1.111

1

1

1

34

0.85

Oct

0.99

1.717

0.55

1

3

1

2

1

1

2

2

44

1.10

Nov

0.22

1.111

0.66

1

1

I

22

0.55

Dec

00

0.33

0.22

5

0.12

Freq

2.222

6.161

3.535

1

2

5

3

3

2

1

1

4

3

143

3.58

3. Earthquakes

Thailand is affected by the impact of earthquakeswith epicentres located in Thailand and from those withepicentre located outside Thailand.

The greatest magnitude of 5.9 on the Richter scalewas measured in Thailand on 22 April 1983 at SrinagarindDam, Kanchanaburi province, approximately 200 km fromBangkok. The impact could be felt all over the country.

The impact of earthquakes outside the country suchas those occurring in the south of China, Thai-Myanmarborder, Lao People's Democratic Republic and AndamanSea, may be felt throughout the country even when theepicentre is far from Thailand. For example, on 6 Novem-ber 1988, an earthquake occurred in south of China with amagnitude of 7.3 on the Richter scale. Although it wasthousands of kilometres from Bangkok, it could be fell,especially by those in high-rise buildings.

At present, the Thai Meteorological Department hasa nine-station network which includes the Seismic Re-search Observatory (SRO) station, World-wide StandardSeismograph (WWSS) network and Short Period VerticalSeismograph (SPZ) stations.

The two earthquakes with their epicentres located inThailand and fell in Bangkok have caused panic and posedpotential threat for high rises and large-scale constructionprojects. There has been a move within the governmentagencies involving protection and mitigation of earthquakedisaster. The National Earthquake Committee was estab-lished to draft a Ministerial Regulation for controllingbuilding construction. The regulation will control large-scale structures to withstand potential destruction byearthquake. The draft has been submitted to the Ministryof Interior for consideration. Another function of theCommittee is that it has to inform and educate the public byproviding seismic information.

B. Conclusion

The increase in the recurrences of natural disastersand the extensive damage caused to property have indi-cated that further improvements in weather forecastingand warning services are urgently needed to minimize thedamage from such natural disasters in the future. ThaiMeteorological Department has played an important roleto reduce heavy damage by providing weather forecast andwarnings to the public.

Table 28. Damages caused by typhoon "Gay", 4 November 1989

Region andProvince

SOUTHERNPART

Phetchaburi

PrachuapKiii Khan

Chumphon

Ranong

Sural Thani

Pattani

EASTERNPART

Rayong

Trat

GULF OFTHAILAND

TOTAL

Humans affected

Dis-tricts

5

75

290

19

20

-

7

6

-

422

Fami-lies

-

3 252

36 649

2780

78

-

188

-

-

42 947

Dead

-

19

446

23

66

2

3

1

44

604

Los!

-

84

-

-

-

-

50

-

• -

134

HousesDamaged(No.)

-

3 25S

41 20S

2106

70

-

188

128

-

46 958

Ship-wreck(No.)

2

99

391

4

36

58

26

-

23

639

Roads(No.)

4

367

579

24

29

-

12

1

-

1 016

Bridges(No.)

]

39

131

20

2

-

-

1

-

194

Public workfacilitiei

Weirs(No.)

-

10

49

-

1

-

1

4

-

65

Officialpremises(No.)

-

8

92

37

2

-

-

3

-

142

Schools(No.)

-

38

168

9

1

-

-

-

-

216

Temples(No.)

-

24

93

2

-

-

-

-

-

119

Agriculture

Mosques(No.)

-

6

-

-

-

-

-

-

6

Flooded(ha)

842

24217

890 015

23 498

2 280

-

-

-

-

940 852

Livestocklost(head)

-

3 490

83 490

1369

200

-

-

-

-

88 549

Totalestimateddamage

(Thousand baht]

22

2CO000

11257 265

90 880

71 123

-

34 791

1613

31000

11 686 695

Source: The Civil Defense Division of the Local Administration Department, Ministry of Interior, Thailand.

Note: Updated on 15 January 1990

en "

n d

3 -

|. 13 &

S. 3o &3 00

5 =

IS-II

XVII. Tonga's efforts to reduce the impacts of tropical cyclones 175

XVII. TONGA'S EFFORTS TO REDUCE THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

A. Introduction

The Kingdom of Tonga is located in the South Pa-cific Ocean between latitudes 15" S to 23.5' S and longitudes17.3'W to 17.7'W. There are 270 islands in the group witha total land area of 699 sq. km. Of these islands, only 36are inhabited.

Tonga is a relatively flat country with only a fewislands to the north reaching recognizable heights rangingfrom 150-300 metres in the Vava'u Group to 1 030 metresin Kao Islands (Ha'apai Group). Because of its location,Tonga is dominated by east or south-easterly trade winds.

The most common natural disasters in Tonga aretropicals cyclones and storm surge flooding that oftenaccompany cyclones.

B. Disaster prevention and preparedness

The formation of the National Office for DisasterRelief and Reconstruction (NODRR) in March 1981 wasthe first real effort made by the Government of Tonga tocounter the disastrous impact of natural disasters afterrealizing from past records that Tonga experiences a cy-clone once every 1.5 years on the average.

Although this unit was developed on a two-yearexperimental basis, the incentive for making it permanentwas provided by tropical cyclone Isaac which swept overthe whole Island Kingdom during the first week of March1982, causing a lot of damage to properties, unparalleledsince 1961. The estimated cost of the damages was aroundSNZ 23 million.

The major objective of the NODRR, as originallyplanned was, "to cultivate disaster preparedness and co-ordinate activities for emergency relief, rehabilitation andreconstruction". Theoretically, this unit was set up as avanguard in preparing the country to a stage of readinessagainst natural disasters and to plan a course of action interms of relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction.

Beside conducting a public awareness programme,and other related activities, the NODRR launched a verycomprehensive low-cost housing scheme. This projectwas initiated with a dual purpose in mind: as a recoveryand rehabilitation measure; and as a countermeasure againstfuture cyclones.

Although limited by financial constraints, this schemewas successful to a great extent. In subsequent tropicalcyclones that visited Tonga after the inception of thisscheme, none of the cyclone-resistant houses were amongthose affected.

About 2 000 houses were built after cyclone Isaacstruck Tonga. This scheme was mainly funded by overseasdonors such as the Australian Disaster Unit, as well asother regional and international organizations. Unfortu-nately, as soon as this outside source dried up, the wholescheme came to a standstill. The Tongan Governmentnevertheless has learned from this experience and is wellaware of the advantages of a low cost housing scheme.

Cyclone Isaac also caused considerable damages bymeans of storm surge flooding. Most of the northerncoastal areas of the main island were flooded up to 500metres inland. Countermeasures against this destructiveaspect included foreshore construction and launching of apublic awareness campaign against the risk and vulner-ability of the area involved. Again this programme wasimpeded by financial constraints. As of now, only thecoastal area of the capital has been protected and thisproject was funded first by the German Government andlater by the Japanese Government. As such, communitiesin rural areas have remained vulnerable to storm surgeflooding.

1. Warning system

Tonga relies completely on the regional Meteoro-logical Station in Nadi, Fiji and the one in Wellington,New Zealand for its weather forecast bulletins. The TongaMeteorological Service is informed by either of these twostations, which in turn warns the people of Tonga of theimpending natural disaster.

2. Public awareness programme

The most recent campaign against the disastrousnature of tropical cyclones is the formation of regionalnatural disaster committees. The primary idea of thisprogramme is to get the public involved in minimizing thedevastating impact of the tropical cyclones in Tonga and toprovide a closer link between the National Disaster Com-mittee and the people.

176Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

At this point in time, public awareness regarding thenature of natural disasters and the precautionary measuresthat should be taken during such events is very limited.Apart from the experiences of the past natural disasters,there is lack of education and training of the people regardingproper steps to take when facing a natural disaster.

The normal channel of communication between theGovernment and the people at large is through the NationalBroadcasting Station. And in the event of a breakdown inthis channel the people, particularly those living in theouter islands, are completely left isolated to weather thestorm on their own.

District committees were therefore created to ensurethat this channel of communication was open. They wereto act as advisors and as supervisors, on a much morecommunal level, in emergency activities and to provide onthe spot feedback to the National Disaster Committee.

This project is still at an experimental stage; hence,analysis and assessment of its effectiveness have not beenundertaken. Nevertheless, it is believed that with thesecommittees, the country will be in a better position tominimize the impact of natural disasters through public

education and training, and recover much more quickly interms of executing a relief and rehabilitation programme.

3. The role of non-governmental organizations(NGOs)

Besides groups which are affiliated to the interna-tional organizations such as the Tonga Red Cross, theLions and Rotary Clubs, the main non-governmental or-ganization which makes significant contributions to thenatural disaster relief and reconstruction programme is theTonga National Council of Churches (TNCC). Althoughrecently formed, the TNCC played an important role in theemergency response and immediate relief phases. Theexecution of its role, however, required close cooperationfrom the Government and, as normally is the case, theGovernment welcomed initiatives from the TNCC. Thus,the two can be said to play a partnership role in this respect.On many occasions the Government lends a helping handto this NGO, mainly in the form of financial assistance.Without it, some of its relief activities would have beenhard to implement. Thus involvement of this NGO indisaster prevention is rather limited.

XVIII. Natural disasters in Vanuatu: The threat and the response 177

XVIII. NATURAL DISASTERS IN VANUATU; THE THREAT AND THE RESPONSE

by W.M. Longworth and M.A. Bergin1

A. Introduction

The Republic of Vanuatu is an archipelago of 80islands located between 13° and 22' south of the equator.The chain of islands runs almost north/south along the167°E meridian. The chain stretches for 800 km from theTorres Islands in the north to Hunter Island in the south.Nearly 90 per cent of the total land mass is taken up by the10 major islands, the largest of which is Santo with an areaof 2 947 sq. km. The capital, Port Vila, is situated on theisland of Efate at a latitude of 17.8' south. Most of theislands are volcanic in origin, and feature rugged moun-tains in the interior and rolling hills leading down tonarrow coastal terraces. Three of the islands have activevolcanoes, the most famous of which is located on theisland of Tanna in the south. Vanuatu is subject to anumber of disaster risks, the most important of which aredescribed below.

B. Natural disasters in Vanuatu

1. Tropical cyclones, storm surges and floods

Vanuatu lies in one of the most tropical cycloneprone areas of the South-west Pacific. The normal cycloneseason is in the southern hemisphere summer months ofNovember to April. On average the Republic can expecttwo to three cyclones each season (Vanuatu Meteorologi-cal Service, 1990a).

In recent years, tropical cyclones have been thecause of much serious damage and extensive economicloss, but there have been few casualties on land. Loss oflife at sea has been more serious. However, this has notalways been the case - the first (unnamed) cyclone of the1951/52 season caused 99 deaths on Epi and Ambrymalone. Although no comprehensive records appear to havebeen kept, the estimated cost to the Vanuatu economysince 1985 due to cyclones (Eric/Nigel 1985, Uma 1987,Anne/Bola 1988 and Ivy 1989) has probably exceeded $US 7 million and had a serious affect on the economy.

Storm surges are normally associated with tropicalcyclones and are caused by a combination of extreme lowpressures over the sea and waves induced by the associatedstrong winds. Because of the volcanic nature of the is-lands, and the resulting steeply sloped ocean floor, stormsurges are not a problem in most parts of the countryalthough surges have been reported as penetrating up to200 m inland in Big Bay, Santo.

In normal times Vanuatu's rivers do not carry largevolumes of water. However after periods of heavy rain -typically during cyclonic activity or summer depressions -they can rise rapidly to block, or wash away, roads andbridges. Again because of the volcanic nature of theislands, drainage is generally good and floods subsiderapidly except in swampy areas or reclaimed land.

2. Droughts

Vanuatu suffers periodic droughts and their impactcan be expected to increase as the population increases anddevelopment puts greater pressure on existing water resources.Major droughts were experienced in 1957/58,1977/78 and1982/83. Many of the droughts are associated with major"El Nino" events.

3. Volcanic hazards and earthquakes

Vanuatu lies along a line of volcanic activity at theboundary of the Pacific and Indo-Australian tectonic plates.Volcanoes on a number of islands, and under the sea, poseactual and potential threats to neighbouring communities.In recent years acid rain formed by the mixing of volcanicgas emissions and rain have caused considerable damageto vegetation and crops on Tanna.

As a result of Vanuatu's position close to the tectonicplate boundary, seismic events are an almost daily occur-rence in and around the country. Fortunately local inten-sity is generally fairly low. Damaging events have how-ever been recorded, notably in 1927 (Efate), 1935, 1965and 1990 (Santo). Estimates have been given by the

Both of Vanuatu Meteorological Service.

178Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

Institute Francais de la Recherche Scientific pour leDeveloppement en Cooperation (ORSTOM) that such eventsup to Intensity VIII on the modified Mercalli Scale may beexpected every 60 years in Santo and Malekula, and every100 years elsewhere in the Republic.

4. Landslips

The steeper slopes of lightly packed earth or volcanicash hills in Vanuatu are vulnerable to landslips. These maybe triggered by earthquakes or by heavy rain. Historicallylandslips have caused a number of casualties on Tanna(1878), Epi (1951), North Santo (1971 and 1974) and MereLava (1980).

5. Tsunamis

Tsunami (or seismic sea waves) are generally causedby earthquakes but may also occur after volcanic eruptionsor major coastal/undersea landslips. They are generallylocal in effect but some travel great distances over the openocean to affect nations far from the point of origin. Theycan produce floods above high tide level. Although uncommonin Vanuatu, tsunamis have been experienced after bothlocal and distant events.

C. Forecasting and warning

1. Forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones

Of all the natural disasters which affect Vanuatu,only some of the meteorologically related events can beforecast with any degree of accuracy and in sufficient timeto enable warnings to be issued to the public. Of theseevents, tropical cyclones are potentially the most devastat-ing and Vanuatu wants to concentrate on the warning of theonset of these particular disasters.

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service (VMS) staffsseven observation stations throughout the country andoperates a Forecasting Service which includes a TropicalCyclone Warning System.

The VMS is a Member of the World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO) Regional Tropical Cyclone Committee(TCC) for the South-west Pacific. The Members of thisCommittee operate a "Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan"(WMQ, 1989), whose objective is "to provide for effectiveco-ordination and co-operative efforts among Members inthe South Pacific to improve the warning systems for theprotection of lives and the reduction of human sufferingand property damage caused by tropical cyclones and otherrelated hazardous weather phenomena".

Briefly the Plan seeks to provide a Tropical CycloneWarning System to all those nations within the Pacificsubject to threat from cyclones. At the foundation of thePlan is the establishment of the forecast office at Nadi, Fijias the Regional "Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre" (TCWC).The Nadi TCWC provides Tropical Cyclone AdvisoryMessages to those nations, such as Vanuatu, who havetheir own independent forecasting abilities and TropicalCyclone Warning Messages to those nations, such as theCook Islands and Western Samoa, who only have observingstaff.

Vanuatu (in common with other nations with fore-casting staff) issue their own Tropical Cyclone Warnings,based on the TCWC Advisories, to their local communi-ties. The warnings for Vanuatu are distributed directly bythe VMS through Radio Vanuatu (in three languages,Bislama, English and French). Other warnings are issuedto interested bodies (Civil Aviation, Ports and Marine,hotels, etc.) either by telex or facsimile. The VMS wouldexpect to give advance notice of at least 48 hours oftropical cyclone landfall. Details for the issue of Warningsare given in the VMS's Tropical Cyclone Directive (Aus-tralian Red Cross Society, 1989), which is updated annu-ally.

The cyclone warning system has basically two stages:

Advisory Messages: gale force winds are not ex-pected to affect land areas within the next 24 hours,

Warning Messages: gale force winds (or greater) areexpected on land areas within the next 24 hours.

Commencing with the 1990/1991 cyclone season,the VMS has been issuing a third category of message: aTropical Cyclone Information Message, for broadcast onRadio Vanuatu. These messages are issued when:

tropical cyclones, or developing depressions,are well away from Vanuatu. They are intendedto heighten awareness, in the general public, ofcyclonic activity in the area;

in between the six-hourly cyclone warnings toreassure the community that the original warn-ings are still valid.

- As a result of a decision made at the ThirdSession of the Tropical Cyclone Committee atWellington in August/September 1990, the VMSwill issue all future warnings to the short-waveservices of Radio Australia and Radio New Zea-land International. This will ensure a moreeffective and wider distribution of the warningsthroughout Vanuatu and the immediate Pacificregion.

XVIII. Natural disasters in Vanuatu: The threat and the response 179

The VMS cyclone warnings contain information re-garding not only the onset of tropical cyclones but alsoassociated storm surges. The VMS now has the capacity tocalculate storm surge quantitatively although only qualitativewarnings of storm surge are issued to the public.

2. Forecasting and warning of other disasters

Flood forecasting in Vanuatu (as in many other smallPacific countries) is only in a formative stage. It is almostimpossible to predict local flash flooding events and thefew major rivers in the country which have flood plains donot have stream gauges which would enable the monitor-ing and prediction of floods. With the potential develop-ment of hydroelectric schemes, improvements may beachieved in this service in the future.

Droughts are not normally forecastable. However,the Vanuatu Meteorological Service can give some ad-vance indication of likelihood of less than average rainfallif there is a significant "El Niflo" event. This forecasttechnique has not been refined, but there does appear to bea very strong correlation between major El Niflo eventsand large rainfall deficiencies in Vanuatu, particularly inthe winter season.

Virtually no data of significance on geologic disas-ters are available in Vanuatu. There are some plans toplace automatic seismic equipment in the most crucialareas. However, it will take a considerable amount of timefor these to be procured, installed and sufficient informa-tion collected for any useful predictions to even be consid-ered.

Forecasting of landslip events in Vanuatu is virtuallyimpossible, being dependent on earthquake activity, rain-fall intensity (practically only possible with a network ofweather radars - far beyond the financial resources ofVanuatu) and detailed topographic knowledge of the wholeof Vanuatu. However, advice on the possibility of land-slips is also included in cyclone warnings.

No formal tsunami warning system operates in Vanuatu.The Tsunami Warning Centre in Hawaii issues warning tonations who are members of the International Oceano-graphic Commission (IOC). At this time Vanuatu is not amember. Tsunami warnings are issued via the WorldMeteorological Organization's 'Global Telecommunica-tions Network' (GTS) to which the VMS is connected.There is however no formal tsunami warning system oper-ating within Vanuatu.

D. Disaster prevention and preparedness

1. Organizational structure

The disaster management structure created in the1985 National Disaster Plan (Vanuatu Government, 1985),

is shown in figure X. It is based on a National Disaster Co-ordinating Committee (NDCC) of Ministry representa-tives, chaired by a representative of the Ministry of HomeAffairs. The NDCC is responsible for co-ordinating, onbehalf of the Minister of Home Affairs, all disaster-relatedmeasures which are concerned with: planning; organiza-tion; preparedness; operations; response and rehabilita-tion; training and public awareness; and other appropriateaspects.

Although some activities have been carried out fol-lowing volcanic acid rain damage (Mount Yasur, Tanna)and minor earthquake activity (Mere Lava), the NDCC hasmainly involved itself with response to specific tropicalcyclones that have affected Vanuatu.

To assist the NDCC during emergency operations aCentral Control Group (CCG)of directors of key operationaldepartments was established to co-ordinate the allocationof resources according to correct priorities.

The Disaster Plan established a National DisasterManagement Office (NDMO) as its full-time disastermanagement and preparedness agency. This forms part ofthe Ministry of Home Affairs and works as directed by theMinister of Home Affairs and/or the NDCC. The staffinglevel of the NDMO is currently two persons.

Within the past 12 months a National EmergencyOperations Centre (NEOC) has been created within theCentral Police Headquarters in Port Vila. This comesunder the jurisdiction of the Commissioner of Police. Theactual operation of the NEOC is still being formalized butit is planned that its role (as stated in the 1985 DisasterPlan) will be to:

gather, collate, assess and circulate information(partially a role also allocated to the NDMO);

- coordinate operational activities including de-ployment of personnel and the distribution ofequipment (a role of the CCG);

issue decisions made by the Minister for HomeAffairs and the NDCC.

Thus the NEOC will become the coordination centrefor any type of disaster (tropical cyclone, storm surge,floods or droughts, volcanic eruption, earthquake, land-slip, tsunami) or other national emergency. It is envisagedthat a representative of a relevant department will take onthe role of coordinator of the NEOC and utilize its facilitiesduring an emergency. In the case of tropical cyclones, thebody would be the NDCC, for aircraft accidents the Direc-tor of Civil Aviation, for shipping mishaps the Director ofPorts and Marine etc.

180Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

Minister for

Finance

Council of

Ministers

Minister of

Home Affairs

National Disaster

Coordinating Committee

Minister for International

Foreign Affairs Assistance

Agencies

National Disaster

Management Office

PREPAREDNESS

Government - NGOs

Departments

Local

Government

Councils

Area

Councils

OPERATIONS

National Emergence

Operations Centre

Central Control

Group

Government - NGOs

Departments

Local

Government

Councils

Area

Councils

RECOVERY

Government

Departments

Local

Government

Councils

Area

Councils

Figure X. Organizational structure for disaster management in Vanuatu

XVIII. Natural disasters in Vanuatu: The threat and the response 181

There is a non-governmental organization (NGO)counterpart to the National Disaster Co-ordinating Committee- the NGO Disaster Co-ordinating Council - comprisingmainly of church and charity organizations. The Chairmanof this Committee is an ex-officio member of the NDCCand thus forms the link between the two organizations.

Local Government and Area Councils have estab-lished committees to deal with disaster matters at theregional level. Coordination and training of these committeesis carried out by staff of the NDMO.

2. Training and public education

Members of both the NDMO and VMS have under-gone disaster training at various levels, notably at theAsian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC), Bangkok.More training is planned for 1991 under the ADPC regionaltraining programme funded by the European EconomicCommunity.

Both the National Disaster Management Office andVanuatu Meteorological Service contribute to disaster pre-paredness in Vanuatu. The NDMO issues literature to thelocal paper, Vanuatu Weekly, and gives interviews forRadio Vanuatu. Regular visits are also made to localgovernment and area councils to maintain disaster aware-ness. Whenever possible contact is made with local gov-ernment secretaries during their annual visit to Port Vila.This provides an ideal opportunity for both the NDMO andVMS to discover how people living in the rural areas viewthe tropical cyclone warning system. These contacts haveproved beneficial in the past and have identified someproblems of which the disaster management organizationswere unaware. These have subsequently been rectified.

The VMS have had a further 30 000 copies of theirTropical Cyclone Plotting Maps and 10 000 copies ofPrecaution Leaflets (see table 29 for the English version)printed for distribution throughout Vanuatu. Funds for theprinting of these maps and information sheets were obtainedfrom Service Clubs and several insurance companies withinVanuatu. Additional funds for the printing of Bislama andFrench versions of the Precaution Leaflets have been requestedthrough normal aid sources. An article giving details ofsome recent efforts to develop disaster awareness has beenpublished in UNDRO News (Longworth, 1990).

3. Recent developments

Throughout 1989 it became apparent that the disastermanagement organization in Vanuatu was not as effectiveas it should be. To address the deficiencies and motivatedby the declaration of the IDNDR, the National DisasterCoordinating Committee asked the Australian Govern-

ment to provide a consiUant to "review disaster prepared-ness in Vanuatu and prepare a# comprehensive disasterpreparedness improvement programme".

The consultant, from the Australian InternationalDevelopment Assistance Bureau (AIDAB), visited Vanuatufrom September to November, 1989. His report wasreceived by the Vanuatu Government in December 1990.It contains some 49 recommendations including one for amajor alteration to the existing disaster management or-ganization in Vanuatu. Much of the material in this paperwas obtained from that consultant report (Barr, 1990).

A sub-group of the NDCC is currently assessing theReport. It will submit suggestions to the Minister forHome Affairs, through the NDCC, as to what action theVanuatu Government should take on the Report.

Until the sub-group's report has been presented tothe Minister for Home Affairs, it is too early to stateexactly what the future Vanuatu Disaster PreparednessOrganization will look like. It is expected that 1991 will bea year of 'transition', either trying to introduce a neworganizational structure or at least undertaking a majoroverhaul of the present system.

References

Australian Red Cross Society/Australian OverseasDisaster Response Organisation, 1989. Reporton the Second Disaster Preparedness Work-shop for Non-Governmental Organisations.AODRO, NSW.

Barr, J.P., 1990. Preparedness in Vanuatu - A Re-view. AIDAB, Canberra.

Longworth, W.M., 1990. Developing DisasterAwareness in the South West Pacific. UNDRONews, March/April 1990. Geneva.

Vanuatu Government, 1985. National Disaster Plan.National Disaster Office, Ministry of HomeAffairs. Port Vila.

Vanuatu Meteorological Service, 1990a. TropicalCyclones in Vanuatu, 1939-1990. ClimatologicalPublication No 1 Port Vila.

Vanuatu Meteorological Service, 1990b, TropicalCyclone Directive. Port Vila.

World Meteorological Organization, 1989. TropicalCyclone Operational Plan for the South Pacificand South-East Indian Ocean. WMO/TD -No.292. Geneva.

Table 29. Tropical cyclone precautions

00

At the Beginningof the Season:

Clear gardens and surrounds of allrubbish (particularly iron, timber etc) thatcould be blown about in high winds andcause injury and damage. If you want tokeep things, put them in tidy piles andweigh them down so they will not blowaway.

Cut off any rotten tree branches whichcould cause damage to you and your houseif they got blown off.

When planting crops, think about howthey can be planted to shelter each otherfrom wind (some tare under trees, yamvines protecting and protected by otherplants).

Check that the roof and walls of yourhouse, and all other buildings are soundand well secured.

Clear out drains and ditches to helpheavy rainfall to drain away.

Set up a small reserve of:

• kerosene,• hurricane lamp and/or torch for

emergency lighting;• batteries for the radio and torch;• plastic bags and sheeting to protect

valuable articles;• string or rope to tie things down;• containers for water and food;• tape for windows.

Prepare and store some customemergency food (smoked breadfruit, buriedyams and taro etc).

Make up a small first aid kit withbandages, band aids, antiseptic and anymedicines you need.

Make sure everyone in the houseyoung and old alike - knows the safestplace to go for shelter-

— within the house,

— within the village.

If you live close to the beach, or ariver, know the quickest way to higherground in case the tide, waves or river startto flood your home.

If you have shutters - check that theyare sound and still fit your windows.

If you have gutters - clear them ofrubbish.

If you have a radio or torch - makesure that they work. Know the frequenciesthat Radio Vanuatu broadcasts on,particularly the short wave frequencies.

Finally make a point of listeningregularly to at least one Radio VanuatuNews Broadcast each day. All informationabout Tropical Cyclones likely to affectVanuatu will be broadcast immediately.Don't miss it ! ! !

When a Cycloneis Approaching

Listen to Warnings on Radio Vanuatu.

Save enough drinking water to last afew days in clean containers and keep insecure place.

Harvest some food from your gardento eat in the days after the Cyclone haspassed.

Cut the tops off manioc plants, so thatthey will not be broken.

Cut excess leaves from banana plantsso they will be less likely to fall.

Check again for loose objects that couldblow about in high winds and cause injuryand damage.

Save some fuel (dry wood, kerosene,matches etc) for cooking and warmth afterthe Cyclone.

Remember that the mains electricitysupply is likely to be cut off as a Cycloneapproaches. Have emergency lighting ready.

Dofinalcheckofhouseroof and walls.You may be able to weigh down the roofwith ropes over the top, tied down withlogs or rocks. DON'T put loose rocks onroof-they might blow or roll off and fall onsomebody.

Stretch sticky tape over glass windowsto hold pieces together should they break.

Have hammer, wood and nails handyto be able to do emergency repairs in ahurry.

If you have shutters, close or fit them.

If you have goods that are not waterproof (electrical equipment, books etctry to cover them in plastic bags etc. Theradio will still work inside aplastic bag.You will need it afterwards.

Store as many items as youcan insidecupboards, preferably above floor level -to avoid being blown about and gettingwet.

Make sure that children, old peopleand pets are safe.

If you live close to the sea, listen towarnings about high tides and waves. Beready to move to high ground on shortnotice.

See if your neighbours are safe.

During the Cyclone

Shelter in a safe place. DO NOTGO OUT.

Beware of the eye of the Cyclone-this is the centre where the wind mayweaken to almost a calm for a time but itwill come back again, just as strongly,from the opposite direction. You mayhave time todo some minonrepairs whilstthe winds are weak BUT BE READYTO SHELTER AGAIN AS SOONAS THE WIND INCREASES AGAIN.

p

"3-5B -i

£• 3

IfIIIt 3£»9 !>'

S 5-

Table 29. (continued)

xB

cEL

HCD

3

D-

n

If you live in a westem-style houseand have windows, open some on the leewardside (the side away from the wind). If thewind changes direction, close thesewindows and open others on the shelteredside of the house.

If you live by a stream, river or by thesea, be ready to move to higher ground ifthe water invades your house.

DO NOT GO TO SEA at any time aCyclone is in your area. Sea conditionswill be very rough and all but very largeboats are in serious danger.

After the Cyclone

Check to see everyone is safe andwell.

Treat any injuries.

Check your house and make quickrepairs.

Collect any fallen fruit and any cropsthat can be salvaged.

If possible, dry out any sensitive itemsthat have got wet (it may however still beraining even though the winds have dieddown).

See if your neighbours need any help.

Listen to Radio Vanuatu for the latestnews and messages.

If you are short of water, get someclean containers and collect rain-water.

Restore any communications facilitiesthatmay have been damaged (i.e., re-erectany radio aerials that have blown down).

DO NOT attempt to cross streams orrivers by foot or by boat until the floodwaters have gone down.

Sea conditions will still be danagerousfor at least 2 to 3 days. DO NOT GO TOSEA in any boat until the sea has calmeddown.

Cyclone Information

The Cyclone Season in Vanuatu lastsfromNovembertoAprH-BUTCYCLONESCAN, AND DO OCCUR OUTSIDETHIS PERIOD.

On average 2 or 3 Cyclones occureach Season - somewhere in the VanuatuArea of responsibility. This includes allthe sea areas of Vanuatu.

Types of Cyclones. Cyclones arecategorized into 3 types according to theirassociated wind intensities. Those with:

1) GALE FORCE WINDS — meanwind speeds between 34 and 47 knots (63to 87 kph; or 8 or 9 on the Beaufort Scaie);

2) STORM FORCE WINDS —mean wind speeds between 48 and 63 knots

(88 to 117 kph; 10 or 11 on the BeaufortScale);

3) HURRICANE FORCE WINDS— mean winds speeds of 64 knots (118kph; Beaufort Scale 12) or greater.

Tropical Cyclones have the followingcharacteristics;

1) Heavy continuous rain;

2} falling pressure;

3) Increasing strong winds withpowerful gusts;

4) Extensive cloudiness and heavythunderstorms;

5) Storms surges, abnormal risesof sea level;

6) Exceptionally high waves anddangerous sea conditions;

7) Flooded rivers — which mayoverflow their banks.

All Tropica! Cyclone Warnings canbe heard on Radio Vanuatu - and willcontain the following information:

• Where the Cyclone is now

• Where it is going

• What wind speeds can beexpected (Gale, Storm or HurricaneWinds)

• When the next warning willbe issued.

Radio Vanuatu broadcasts on thefollowing frequencies:

5.45 am — 10. IS pm98.0 MHz (FM) - Port Vila98.5 MHz (FM) - Santo1125 KHz (Medium Wave)

5.45 am — 10.00 pm3945 KHz (Short Wave)

9.00 am — 6.00 pm7260 KHz (Short Wave)

5.00 pm —10.15 pm3945 KHz (Short Wave)

Warning Lights on the GovernmentBuilding or Meteo Tower, Nambatu willindicate the following winds likely to affectEfate (and nearby islands):-

RED — GALE FORCE WINDS.

DOUBLE RED — STORM FORCE WINDS.

TRIPLE RED — HURRICANE FORCE

WINDS.

Produced by

VANUATU METEOROGICAL SERVICE

with the kind assitance of

VILA AGENTS LIMITED

and

COMMERCIAL UNIONASSURANCE CO. OF

AUSTRALIA LTD.

184Pan Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

XIX. MEASURES TO REDUCE DAMAGE FROM WATER-RELATEDNATURAL DISASTERS IN VIET NAM

by Nguyen Ngoc Dong1

A. Introduction

Natural disasters cause heavy losses in Viet Namevery year. Cyclonic storms and floods are the two mainnatural disasters in the country. Viet Nam is generallydivided into three parts, namely the northern, central andsouthern. The Red and the Thai Binh Rivers are the riversystems in the north. The rivers in the central part areshort, running from the Truong Son mountain range to thesea. The largest river system in the south is the Mekongriver. Viet Nam is a long and relatively narrow country.Flood regimes of its rivers are different, and floods takeplace every year.

From 1979 to 1989, 75 cyclonic storms and tropicaldepressions landed in or directly influenced Viet Nam.During this period 30 major floods were experienced.Loss figures were: 4 703 died; 7 000 injured; 551 missing;940 403 houses destroyed; 3 332 221 houses damaged;40 347 classrooms collapsed and 64 671 classrooms dam-aged, thousands of hospitals and medical stations col-lapsed or damaged; more than a million hectares flooded,130 752 ships and boats sunk; and thousands of waterconservancy and transportation projects destroyed (seetable 30). The total costs of the economic losses have notyet been established due to changes in prices and ex-change rates.

In 1990, there were five cyclonic storms and threetropical depressions affecting Viet Nam directly. In Juneand July 1990 flash floods caused heavy damage to theprovinces in the mountainous area in the north (Lai Chau,Son La, Hoang Lien Son) and in the central highlands (DaeLac). Losses and damage caused by floods and storms in1990 amounted to 354 people killed or missing, 932 in-jured; 14 521 houses collapsed and 154 134 houses dam-aged; 1 931 classrooms collapsed and 5 709 damaged, 244hospitals and medical stations collapsed and 420 damaged;45 543 hectares of rice plants were washed away, and153 750 hectares of rice damaged; the paddy output wastherefore reduced by nearly 200 000 tons; 588 ships andboats were sunk and 954 damaged. These are the prelimi-nary figures.

B. Forecasting and warning

The Vietnamese Government' considers that fore-casting and warning are one of the most important meas-ures to help mitigate the effects of tropical cyclones andfloods. This measure has proved very effective in reducingthe potential damage of natural disasters by lengtheningthe time between warning and onset of an event. TheHydrometeorological Service is responsible for the prepa-ration of cyclone and flood forecasts and warnings andstorm surge prediction.

Tropical cyclone forecasting is based on data pro-vided by weather satellites and available radar stations inthe three major cities of Hanoi, Da Nang and Haiphong.Accurate prediction of cyclone intensity and movementhas been hampered because of inadequate links with theweather service of neighbouring countries, obsolete equip-ment and shortage of funds to upgrade the existing system.

The Service prepares short-term flood forecasts forall the major river systems. A sophisticated mathematicalmodel is utilized in formulating these forecasts. Currently,however, the Service does not prepare detailed forecasts offlash flood conditions in the Central Region, despite thefact that these floods cause massive damages.

The responsibility for preparing forecasts and theissuing of warnings for minor rivers and streams resideswith the individual provinces' and districts' administra-tion.

Data collection systems for rainfall and streamflowstatistics are manual with the information being transmit-ted by land-line or radio. No telemetering equipment isavailable to help streamline the data collection network.

Dissemination of the forecasts and warnings is ac-complished by television, radio and the newspapers. Dur-ing emergencies, updated forecasts and warnings are is-sued at frequent intervals. The Central Storm and FloodControl Committee receives frequent advice to allow it toco-ordinate all flood control activities.

Chief, flood and Storm Control Section, Ministry of Water Resources, Socialist Republic of Viet Nam.

X

Table 30. Human losses and material damages caused by storms and floods in Viet Nam from 1979 to 1989 II

Items

I. Human losses

Death

Injured

Missing

II. Houses

Houses collapsed

Houses inundated

III. Schools

Schools collapsedSchools roof blown away

IV. Hospital - clinics

Hospitals collapsed

Hospital roof blown away

V. Losses in agriculturalproduction

Rice fields

completely lost

Rice fields inundated

Vegetables sweet potatocompletely lost

Rice completely lost

Boats sunk

Bridges collapsed

Unit

Persons

Number

Rooms

Number

Ha

Ha

Ha

Tonne

Number

Number

1979

42

1627

32 332

940

40

72 961

124 094

24 230

2 156

103

62

1980

455

391

132 704103 948

8 29486

645

188 705

49 129

30 259

2719

1984

1981

258

35

8

25 961

123 220

25230

48210

148 639

26 039

3 465

185

57

1982

97

571

150

38 469136 724

9 035585

3669

70 105

52 697

12 895

25 962

463

44

1983

817

551

147 621483 477

2 2911907

8911907

79 796

175 966

19600

2 941

2503

1984

452

531

157

34 967

220 036

2 569423

360

246 440

415 645

59 780

3660

380

152

1985

1032

323

179 406

167 935

2 0497 326

190

1961

219 025

630 364

55 752

10 987

1793

224

1986

826

2 794

35

86 185647 924

2 04914 790

2 2799 367

32 152

408 053

80 199

3025

548

321

1987

140

391

27 874

213 991

2 9383 947

25

215

34 408

107 085

27 852

5 844

579

480

1988

163

65

129

28 422

140611

16931755

212

63 195

79 863

58 820

15 931

401

369

1989

421

2004

72

237 167

1052 023

1051333 622

1763

3 542

175 528

663 031

39 213

54 062

1988

2 636

TOTAL

4 703

7 656

551

940403

3 322 221

40 34764 671

5 833

21233

1230 525

2 846 566

434 639

130752

10 927

4 345

e

a.

1535'

2

i

oo

186Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

Tropical cyclone warnings are issued to all shippingby radio and, in special circumstances, by gun signals.Embargoes are placed on ships departing port duringemergency periods to reduce loss of life.

C. Disaster prevention and preparedness

The Government of Viet Nam undertakes both struc-tural and non-structural measures in reduction and preventionof natural disasters.

1. Structural measures

The Government of Viet Nam has been implement-ing various kinds of structural measures. Flood controlreservoirs were constructed in the upstream areas of riverswhich may also serve as multi-purpose reservoirs. Dikesystems are very important in Viet Nam, where the originaldikes were constructed in the 11th century. Before 1945,a total of 87 million m3 of earth had been used in construc-tion of dikes and during the last 45 years (1946-1990) morethan 260 millions m3 of earth were used in construction ofdikes. In 1945 the total length of river dikes was 3 000 kmand at present, Viet Nam has 5 000 km of river dikes and2 000 km of sea dikes.

In many rivers, about 600 units of groins and coverstones have been installed during the last 45 years usingmore than 4 million m3 of stone for these groins. Riverchannels have been improved by removing obstacles fromthe rivers, including sunken ships and collapsed bridges,and by providing diversion canals.

Some low areas are utilized for retaining some por-tion of flood waters whenever the flood levels are predictedto exceed critical levels. The polder embankment systemshave been installed in some areas in order to protect ricefields from flooding. Pumping stations have been installedto pump the flood water from areas inside the dikes andpolders to the rivers. Many drainage systems have beenconstructed.

2. Non-structural measures

A variety of non-structural measures for flood pre-vention are undertaken in Viet Nam.

Reforestation activities are considered to be impor-tant in Viet Nam, and in view of the positive contributionof reforestation to flood control, from 1981 to 1990 severalmillions of trees were planted throughout the country. TheGovernment also has a flood and storm control plan, floodfighting plan, and an evacuation plan. Households in theflood prone zones are transferred to safe zones. Since 1969lens of thousands of households have thus been evacuated.

As for preparedness, there are teams of dike manage-ment. Each team covers 20 to 30 km of dikes. Engineersand workers are trained in techniques on dike management.There is also a watch-post every 3 km of dike consisting ofa chief, deputy chief and members. They are rewarded notwith money but rice provided by the concerned farmcooperative. Before the flood season, teams are trained invillages and are organized into dike protection brigadesconsisting of 50 to 100 members, who are trained in dikeprotection. In the forest regions there are forest protectionbrigades, which are in charge of management of the forest.

Every year a meeting of district and province au-thorities on dike management is held. Flood and stormcontrol techniques are introduced to the public throughradio programmes and publications in newspapers.

In colleges and schools, the historic floods and con-trol measures as well as climate and geography of theregions are studied. River engineering including techniqueson dike protection is taught in colleges and institutes.Some training courses for river engineers and technicianson flood and storm control and dike management areorganized.

D. Viet Nam's response to International Decade forNatural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)

In December 1988, with funds provided by the SaveChildren's Fund of the United Kingdom and with AsianDisaster Preparedness Center of Asian Institute of Tech-nology (ADPC/AIT) assistance, the Central Storm andFlood Control Committee opened a training course onstorm prevention and control for 36 persons. Up to thepresent with the funds provided by Save the Children,seven training courses have been organized where morethan 200 persons have been trained. Further courses willbe held in the future. These training courses are of practi-cal significance since they provide the participants withthe basic knowledge which can be immediately applied.

The Government of Viet Nam decided to dedicate 22May as the Day for Natural Disaster Preparedness, andfurther refined the organization of the Central Storm andFlood Control Committee in Viet Nam. This Committeetogether with the State Committee of Science and Technologyhas initiated a state level research programme on theprevention and mitigation of floods and storms in VietNam.

On 7 January 1991 Chairman of the Council ofMinisters of Viet Nam decided to establish the NationalCommittee on the "International Decade of Natural Disas-ter Reduction in Viet Nam" and appointed the Minister ofWater Resources as its Chairman. Other members of the

XIX. Measures to reduce damage from water-related natural disasters in Viet Nam 187

Committee include Vice Ministers or Deputy Directors ofa number of ministries and general departments, and DeputyChief of staff of the people's army of Viet Nam.

The tasks of the Committee are laid down as follows:

To collaborate with the concerned governmentagencies and the mass organizations, social or-ganizations, scientific and technological researchinstitutes, to make plans, programmes and takemeasures to prevent natural disasters and/or mitigatetheir consequences.

To direct the implementation of programmes onprevention and mitigation of natural disasters inViet Nam.

To establish relations with international organi-zations (including non-governmental organiza-tions) and foster cooperation in prevention andmitigation of natural disasters.

Disaster prevention and mitigation projects are verynecessary for Viet Nam since it is a country that suffersgreatly from natural disasters. It is hoped that Viet Namcan continue to receive international assistance in prevent-ing and reducing natural disasters. Funds, equipment andtechnical assistance for projects on natural disaster prepar-edness are much needed in Viet Nam.

188Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

XX. NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE UNION OF SOVIETSOCIALIST REPUBLICS IN 1990

A. Introduction

In 1990 more than 150 severe hydrometeorologicalphenomena were experienced in the USSR. The mostcatastrophic ones both from the point of view of thedamage caused and the experience gained in their mitiga-tion were floods in Bashkiria and Zabaikalye, numerousforest and tundra fires in Siberia, severe snowstorms inKomi republic and prolonged storms in the Far East.

At the beginning of February 1990, strong and pro-longed snowstorms accompanied by very low air tempera-tures (down to -35'C) raged in a coal mining region,situated at the north-eastern part of the European territoryof the USSR (the city of Vorkuta) as a result of cycloneimpact. During two to three days all traffic on highwaysand railroads was paralyzed, airports closed, radio andtelecommunications interrupted. Seven persons died andmore than 100 persons were frostbitten.

The total damage was about 10 million rubles.

At the end of April and the first 10 days of May dueto intensive melting of snow accompanied by severe rains,a catastrophic flood struck the rivers of Bashkiria.

The maximum water levels of previous years wereexceeded in some places by more than 1 metre. The floodaffected a territory with over 100 human settlements, someof which had a population of 200 000 to 500 000 and anumber of chemical plants. Unfortunately, loss of humanlives could not be prevented.

As a result, the need to amend and improve existingtechniques of hydrological forecasting for this region inemergency situations became evident. Special attentionshould be paid to protection of chemical plants in order toavoid the situation when natural and ecological disastershappen simultaneously.

In the middle of May a long period of dry weatherresulted in a great increase of forest and steppe fires in thesouth of eastern Siberia. Stormy winds of about 130 kphalso contributed to the spreading of these fires. Duringonly one day on 16 May more than 46 000 hectares offorests were destroyed by the fire. In affected humansettlements about 1000 houses were burned down, 24people died.

Although the information about the increasing dan-ger of fires was being communicated by the ForecastingDivision of the USSR State Committee on Hydrometeorologyto local authorities and other responsible organizationssince the end of April, the total damage amounted to 150million rubles, mainly because of a limited number of firebrigades engaged in the mitigation of this devastatingdisaster.

A similar situation was observed in July-August inthe tundra region and on peat bogs of Western Siberia. Thespreading of fire to oil and gas production sites and pipe-lines created additional dangers. This disaster severelydamaged the ecosystems of tundra, so that their restorationwill take years. About 100 000 hectares of tundra wereestimated to have been severely damaged.

In the first two weeks of July there was almost twicethe usual precipitation in the Tchita region. Several wavesof high precipitation floods formed on the rivers. Floodplains were inundated to the depth of 2.5 m, in some places- for the first time in about 100 years. As a result of thisdisaster several people died, 70 bridges were destroyed,about 500 buildings were damaged and 1 million hectaresof agricultural land inundated. After the warning abouthigh floods the local emergency commission evacuatedabout 2 000 people from the endangered areas, strength-ened bridges and dams. The experience gained in mitigat-ing the disaster showed the need to strengthen and improvehydrological network significantly for a more precise andtimely forecast of floods, and for development of inte-grated protection schemes for Tchita city and other humansettlements in this area.

From 5 to 11 November on Sakhalin, Kamchatka,and in Magadane region as well as in the Japan andOkhotskoye seas severe storms, extensive precipitationand waves were observed.

On Sakhalin wind velocity sometimes reached 40-45m/sec, the precipitation level exceeded one to two monthlynorms. As a result communications were destroyed, somehuman settlements were left without electricity, severalships were thrown onto the shore, and a very large land-slide occurred.

The damage could have been much greater but forthe timely warning of the approaching disaster. It allowed

XX. Natural disasters in the Union of Soviet socialist republics in 1990 189

fishing boats and ships to return safely to their ports.Emergency commissions for disaster mitigation were formedwith a significant number of repair and restoration teams attheir disposal. These repair teams were able to undoquickly the damage done.

On 14 June 1990 an earthquake with an intensity of7 to 8 and a magnitude of 7.1 occurred in Eastern Khazakhstan(Zaisan). The earthquake's epicentre was located about40 km deep, therefore the surface effect was not verystrong: the deformations were mainly of a secondary order(outbursts of mud, sand, water). Nevertheless, about 400buildings (mainly of native "saman" type construction)were destroyed and about 1000 people were left homeless.

This earthquake was the most catastrophic on theterritory of the USSR in 1990. Mention can also be madeof the earthquake of 16 December in the Dgevakhetskoyehighland, Georgia, with an intensity of 6 to 7 and that of 28December in the area of Issyk-Koul, Kirgizia, of 5 to 6. Itshowed that present maps of the hazardous seismic zonesneed to be reviewed, because the region of Zaisan forexample, was marked on these maps as a non-hazardouszone.

In addition to these natural disasters spread over vastareas, some local events were also observed (avalanches,mudflows etc.) In a number of cases failure to followrecommendations on protective and preventive measures,lack of knowledge and awareness of the rules of conduct inavalanche- and mudflow-prone zones caused loss of hu-man lives and considerable damage.

B. Forecasting and warning

The main aim of the USSR State Committee onHydrolmeteorology and its bodies is timely forecastingand detection of natural hydrometeorological events andprovision of timely warnings about these events to Gov-ernment bodies, organizations concerned and the generalpublic

Forecasting is based on synoptic, physico-statistical,hydrodynamic methods and mathematical modelling thathas been recently introduced.

The existing methods of forecasting provide for warningabout 80-95 per cent of hydrometeorological events. Thesewarnings may be given as early as 1 to 2 hours before localevents and 2 to 3 days before large-scale ones. Notwith-standing existing positive results, further improvement inprediction methods aimed at better accuracy in determin-ing the intensity, starting time and the location of a naturaldisaster is needed. All the more so since a number of

disasters such as whirlwinds, mudflows, avalanches etc. sofar are difficult to forecast with required details in time andspace by using existing methods.

Warnings on hazardous hydrometeorological eventsare immediately communicated to local, and, as necessary,to regional and Government authorities, to civil defensestructures and enterprises under the system ofhydrometeorological services.

C. Disaster prevention and mitigation

The damage from natural disasters can be substan-tially reduced with proper organization of population warningsystems, search and rescue operations and restoration works.In this connection the State Commission of the Council ofMinisters on emergency situations was established by thedecision of the Council of Ministers. With the establish-ment of this Commission the tasks of the subsidiary bodiesof the State Committee on Hydrometeorology have con-siderably changed.

The operational emergency groups, created in repub-lican and regional bodies of the State Committee onHydrometeorology provide hydrometeorological logisticsfor search and rescue operations and restoration work inemergency areas, and constantly cooperate with localemergency commissions. At the level of the central Gov-ernment this function belongs to the Standing EmergencyCommission of the State Committee on Hydrometeorology,which provides the State Commission of the Council ofMinisters on Emergency Situations with timely informa-tion on possible critical hydrometeorological andheliogeophysical events on Soviet territory that can lead toemergency situations; on large-scale climatic anomalies(droughts, severe winters), and on the impact of existingand expected hydrometeorological events on the aftermathsof accidents and disasters.

The framework of a unified state system of warningand emergency action situations which is being created,envisages large-scale studies on the scientific and techni-cal programmes for the safety of population and economicfacilities, with due account given to the risk of occurrenceof natural and technogenic disasters. The main guidelinesin the programme will be as follows:

improving the effectiveness of population pro-tection against the consequences of natural disasters;

improving the methods and technical means ofsearch and rescue operations and other emergency meas-ures;

190Part Three: National disaster mitigation efforts in countries of the

ESCAP region, with emphasis on water-related natural disasters

- improving population life support system;

- mapping the areas of hazardous impact risk;

- setting up the system of legal criteria and eco-nomic tools integrating safety;

working out with UN assistance the generalinternational norms and requirements of population safety,as well as consistent systems of national and internationalmonitoring of the evolution of natural disasters (acci-dents).

The programme covers the period of 1991-1995.

At the same time the State Committee onHydrometeorology is creating:

- automatic system for detecting heavy rain zonesand assessing rain floods of typhoon-prone regions in theFar East;

versatile computerized disaster detection andwarning systems in large cities;

facilities for detecting local events, such as hailsthunderstorms, whirlwinds and storms;

- facilities for assessing and preventing avalanchesand mudflows.

After testing these systems in specific regions, it isenvisaged to expand the areas covered by such facilitieswith a view to establish a unified state system of earlydetection and warning on natural hydrometeorologicalevents.

Maps (data bases) of the frequency and intensity oftsunamis in the Soviet Far Eastern regions and maps ofmudflows and avalanche risks will be made, regulations onconstruction engineering, containing the parameters ofnatural hydrometeorological events and some other meas-ures will be developed. Such a system will provide anaccurate picture of natural events and will permit taking ofemergency measures to mitigate them, and to substantiallyreduce physical damage and avoid loss of human lives.

PART FOUR

ACTIVITIES OF INTERNATIONAL AGENCIESIN NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION

I. Meteorological and hydrological aspects of natural disasters 193

I. METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL ASPECTS OFNATURAL DISASTERS

by O.M. Melder1

A. Introduction

Mankind has suffered from natural disasters sincethe beginning of history. Many of these events were of ameteorological or hydrological origin. A recent ranking,by number of lives lost, for the major types of disastersshows that tropical cyclones and floods are two of the threemost serious causes of death from natural disasters.Earthquakes are the only other form of hazard with acomparable death toll. In the immediate past, 1989 will godown in history as one of the worst years in terms oftropical cyclone causualties and damage in the ESCAPregion. No less than 34 tropical cyclones occurred in thewestern North Pacific and the South China Sea, resultingin death of more than 1500 people. Tens of thousands weremade homeless and the financial loss exceeded US$ 2billion.

The consequences of natural disasters, indeed of anytype of disaster, can endure for a considerable time afterthe event. For instance the injuries and illness sustained bythe survivors of a landslide can be with them for theremainder of their lives, while in a few hours intense rainsand floodwaters can erode fertile soil and ruin the agriculturefor centuries.

But these and like effects are usually not accountedfor in attempts to weigh up the impact of these hazards. Soit is highly probable that the social and economic costs ofnatural disasters are much greater than is generally recognized.Indeed, where studies have been made, they demonstratethat the damage caused to the economy of a country canrepresent a significant percentage of the gross nationalproduct, usually involving a large loss of export earnings.

With the increase in population that is taking place inmany countries, there will be a far larger target for naturaldisasters in these countries in the future. The pressure ofpopulation on land resources will demand that many morepeople must live and work where the risks of disasters arehighest, for instance in river valleys and on coastal plains.Most of the poorest people will be forced to settle in theareas of greatest risk, such as in the shanty towns built on

steep slopes around the expanding fringes of mega-cities.But now there is the additional problem of changing climateand the sea level rise that is expected to accompany it. Arising sea level will aggravate the risk for the coastalpopulations, while shifts in the major climate belts mayexpose some communities to new hazards. Then there isconcern that climate change may bring about more severestorms and other extreme events where they may have notbeen prevalent previously. Concern is also growing thatwhile some natural disasters are being amplified inadvert-ently by man's activities, such as the deforestation ofmountainous areas intensifying floods, others may triggerenvironmental emergencies, for example a volcanic erup-tion resulting in the release of gases and paniculate matter.In these circumstances, the arguments for improving thecapabilities of countries to combat natural disasters arecompelling. No nation can afford to ignore the increasingthreat; no community can expect to be free of risk.

B. Natural disasters

Most natural disasters can be classified into one ofthe three main groups; those of the solid earth, those of thefluid earth and those disasters associated with the biosphere.However, some disasters cut across such boundaries, whileothers spawn secondary effects which may fall into anothergroup.

1. Solid earth disasters

An earthquake, a sudden motion of the earth causedby an abrupt release of slowly accumulating stress, is anexample of a solid earth-type of disaster, a volcanic erup-tion is another. Volcanic activity is confined spatially towell-defined geological zones that are related to the unstablemargins of the world's crustal plates, and this is where themajority of the more severe earthquakes occur. Bothearthquakes and volcanic eruptions can trigger other events;landslides, tsunamis and floods. For example, the 1847Zenkouji earthquake in Japan is remembered most for theblocking of the Sai river and the secondary disaster caused

Scientific Officer, Hydrology and Water Resources Department, Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.

194Pan Four: Activities of international Agencies

in natural disaster reduction

when the natural dams collapsed. The earthquake ac-counted for the death of more than 10 000 people and theloss of 20-30 000 homes. More than 40 000 slope failureswere recorded. The largest occurred in the slope of theKokuzou inundation and in the huge volume of sedimentsaccumulated in the Sai river. The volume was estimated atabout 700 m along its river course with a height of 100 m.The huge dammed reservoir that occurred had a length ofmore than 40 km. Nearly all the river flow was dammedfor two weeks after the earthquake and about 30 villagesalong the Sai river were flooded. Three weeks after theearthquake, the dammed reservoir was overtopped by runofffrom the severe storms which followed the earthquake.The stored water flowed into the Sai river and floods killeda large number of people.

Landslides are much more widespread than eitherearthquakes or volcanoes, but they have a variety of causesthat puts them on the boundary between the first two of themain groups of disaster. Heavy rain, melting snow and iceand associated floods together with earthquakes, volcaniceruptions and building and construction works are amongstthe main reasons for landslides. Landslides occurring onthe ocean bottom along with earthquakes or volcanic eruptionscan cause tsunamis, large ocean waves which becomedestructive as they approach the shallow waters alongcoast lines.

2. Fluid earth disasters

The disasters of the fluid earth - the atmosphere andthe hydrosphere - know no boundaries. They can occuranywhere. The most destructive of weather systems, thetropical cyclones, which form over the oceans betweenlatitudes 5° and 25° where temperature of the water is atleast 27° C, bring winds exceeding 120 kph, rainfalls ofover 1 000 mm in the space of a few days and storm surgesof up to 8 metres or more resulting from sea level rise dueto low barometric pressure and associated winds. In 1989,for example, typhoon Gay developed in the Gulf of Thai-land on 31 October and subsequently crossed the coast ofChumphon on 4 November. It was the worst typhoon to hitThailand for 60 years. At least 600 people where killed,more than 46 000 houses either partly or totally destroyedand 639 fishing boats sunk. The total storm damage wasestimated at USS 455 million.

Floods seem to be one of the most widespread andsavage of natural disasters. They can be produced by theheavy rain from tropical and extratropical cyclones andtheir frontal systems, from rapid snowmelt, from a damfailure, from ice jams and in several other ways. On a largeriver system a flood may take several weeks or a month ormore to subside, but in headwater regions and in smallrivers a flood may last for only a few hours. These are flash

floods which are common in mountainous areas. Thecombination of storm surge and river floods is particularlyhazardous for low lying countries, such as Bangladesh.Coastal areas are also vulnerable from flooding from tidalwaves. In November 1970 some 200 000 people weredrowned in Bangladesh due to this phenomenon, whichcan also occur in more enclosed seas. Because of defor-estation in headwater regions and the greater and morerapid runoff that ensues, the flood hazard has grown andwill continue to grow in many areas. Likewise the spreadof urbanization increases the volume and rate of runoff,increasing further the flood hazard.

Droughts are different from other natural disasters:in particular because they are caused by a non-event ratherthan some rapidly occurring phenomenon. A drought isusually extensive in space and time and, neither its startnor its termination can be readily identified. In addition,while droughts normally cause no deaths directly, indi-rectly through famine they can kill and adversely affect thelives of millions. Unlike other natural disasters, droughtsare difficult to define because their impact on society andeconomy is felt in so many different ways: the manydifferent definitions that are available even in meteorologyand hydrology are supplemented by more from agricul-ture, domestic water supply and other sectors. Neverthe-less, these difficulties do not detract from the fact thatdrought is a natural disaster of immense consequencebeing disruptive of the economy, society and the environment.

Droughts provide the best conditions for bush andforest fires to start and spread. Such wildfires, oftenstarted by thunderstorms, can engulf vast areas, endanger-ing lives, also lessening scenic values. Removal of thevegetation induces more rapid runoff from the burnedareas, soil erosion and landslides. Australia is frequentlyhit by bushfires, the 1988-89 and 1989-90 "seasons" beingparticularly bad. The largest recorded wildfire occurred inChina in May 1987, covering 10 000 sq. km, killing nearly200 people, destroying 12 000 homes and displacing56 000 inhabitants.

China also provides one of the prime examples of acountry suffering from both floods and droughts, on someoccasions within a calendar year. The torrential rain ineastern Sichuan, 300-500 mm in five days from 7 to 11 July1989, caused widespread and serious damage in 24 citiesand counties, Daily totals exceeded 100 mm, and reached298 mm. More than 800 people were killed and over 1 000were reported injured. Floods destroyed 700 000 housesand inundated 600 000 ha of farmland. Losses were valuedat more than USS 350 million. By constrast, there was asevere drought during August in north-eastern and north-ern China. Rainfall was only 10 to 50 per cent of normal,and high temperatures with rapid evaporation accentuated

I. Meteorological and hydrological aspects of natural disasters 195

the effects of the lack of rain. From Beijing to InnerMongolia, monthly totals were only 10-60 mm comparedwith the more usual 110-165 mm. Certain places, such asHarbin with 7 mm, had their lowest August total in the past70 to 100 years. Over 48 million hectares of farmland werebadly affected in what was the severest drought in the past40 years.

C. Disaster prevention

There are considerable possibilities for reducing theimpact of natural disasters and in some cases for avoidingthem completely. Such reductions are based upon thescientific understanding of the phenomena involved andthe application of this knowledge in skillfully organizedsystems for forecasting and warning. Nations which haveinvested in these systems and the preparedness and publicawareness measures that go with them, have been sucessfulin reducing deaths and, to a lesser extent, damage. Japanand Hong Kong are among those which operate theseintegrated disaster management systems.

It is important to recognize the essential elements ofthese disaster management systems, elements which togetherform links in the chain of reduction and alleviation. Weaknessin one link usually means that the system fails to functioneffectively in its entirety, often resulting in loss of life and/or damage to property. These elements, which buildsuccessively on those coming before, are:

(1) Networks of instruments distributed spatially tomeasure meteorological, hydrological, seismological andrelated events on a regular basis, including radars andsatellites. Transmission of these observations to computerarchives for data processing and storage;

(2) Design systems which employ the informationcollected and collated in (1) to assess risk for design ofstructures of various types (e.g. buildings, dams and theirspillways, bridges and fire breaks, land use etc.);

(3) Forecasting systems which employ the informa-tion collected and collated by (1) and which have beendevised and calibrated for use with real-time data in day-to-day and disaster situations for forecasts of extremeevents;

(4) Warning systems which employ the forecastsproduced in (3) to disseminate disaster information topublic and civil defence bodies and through them to thegeneral public;

(5) Preparedness and prevention systems which em-ploy the information obtained from the previous elements(1 to 4 above) in designing preparedness measures andplan the action to be taken in disaster situations, establish-

ing or identifying the responsible bodies and ensuring theywork smoothly together;

(6) Public awareness systems which utilize the pre-vious elements for the education and preparation of thepublic for the onset of natural disasters and the action to betaken during disasters;

(7) Rescue and rehabilitation systems which provide:immediate care for the injured and sick, food, material andfuel together with clothing and shelter, transport and otherlife support essentials;

(8) Reconstruction systems with a longer term aimto return the material and non-material components ofsociety to normal following the occurrence of a disasterand to make them less vulnerable to future occurrences;

(9) Research and education to improve and upgradethe elements of the overall disaster system listed as (1) to(8).

In countries with highly proficient integrated disas-ter management systems, such systems have resulted fromconsiderable and continuing investment of capital andexpertise. It is worth noting however that this investmentis far smaller than the costs of damages caused by disas-ters; cost-benefit ratios of 1 to 10 or 1 to 15 being common.It is also worth noting that while governments in thedeveloping world normally lack the funds to plan, develop,organize and maintain systems for coping with disasters,many governments in the developed world have beenreducing their spending on their systems. In both cases theoutcome must be an increased loss of life and greaterproperty damage costs.

To take Japan as an example of a country sufferingfrom disasters: in the great earthquake of 1923 more than140 000 died and the damage to property was immense.From 1966 onwards, following the implementation of theDisaster Countermeasures Basic Act of 1961, a distinctchange occurred in disaster statistics resulting from themeasures taken. When in 1987, a magnitude 6.6 earth-quake occurred with its epicentre near Tokyo, only twopeople died, 10 were injured and the damage was negligible.For Hong Kong, the close approach of Typhoon Gordon inJuly 1989 provided a good opportunity for the governmentto test its overall response plan. It confirmed that advancenotification about major changes in warning status givento the public was highly successful.

Occupying a prime position in these disaster man-agement systems are the computer models devised bymeteorologists to simulate and predict the behaviour of theatmosphere, and which are used to produce weather fore-casts. Computer models are also constructed by hydrolo-

196Part Four: Activities of international agencies

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gists and other geophysicists for their particular forecast-ing and prediction purposes. Hydrological models of riverbasins, for example, are utilized to provide flow forecasts,including forecasts of floods and droughts.

To model the weather on a global scale, currentatmospheric models employ as a conceptual basis a seriesof concentric layers of the atmosphere, like an onion,extending from the surface of the earth into the strato-sphere. The layers nearer the surface are the shallower, tobetter represent the important processes that take placethere. Within these layers, a three-dimensional grid ofpoints girdles the globe, containing half a million or morepoints, depending on the number of layers in the model andthe spacing of the points. The global model in use at theWorld Meteorological Centre in Washington has a hori-zontal spacing of 140 km and a vertical separation of 200m at the bottom of the atmosphere. Initial values oftemperature, pressure, windspeed and humidity are as-cribed to each point from the measurements gathered fromthe ground and from space. The model then mathemati-cally transforms these values to create weather patternswhich move forward in time as each atmospheric cellaround every grid point interacts with its neighbours. Asthese cells interact, the values are recalculated again andagain at given time intervals, and the forecast slowlybuilds up. In the Washington model each forecast takesabout 22 minutes of computer time and a complete 10-dayforecast is run once a day. Regional forecast modelsdescribing medium-scale weather patterns operate on asmaller horizontal grid than global models, with typicalgrids of 50-85 km. Such models better simulate localweather events, for example precipitation, and are highlyvalued as inputs to hydrological models.

Hydrological models of river basins mostly operateon a much smaller scale than meteorological models. Thetypical basin might be 10 000 km2 but forecasts are requiredfor basins as small as 100 km2 in some countries. Althoughthey may operate on many fewer grid points, and whilesome use only two dimensions, the ideal hydrologicalmodel would have to represent a greater number andvariety of processes than atmospheric models in simulat-ing the movement of water from its entry into a basin asrain or snow, to the point where the forecast is required.Such hydrological models would also need to represent thetopography and land use of the basin and the nature of theriver channels, so that they can become much more com-plex than meteorological models. For these and otherreasons, the use of physically meaningful hydrologicalmodels for day-to-day operational purposes is not so faradvanced as in meteorology. Hydrological models in dailyuse tend to be much simpler. Nevertheless, the hydrologi-cal community is advancing rapidly in its modelling ca-pability as has been shown by several WMO intercomparisonprojects for hydrological forecast models.

D. Activities of the World MeteorologicalOrganization

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) hasresponsibility within the United Nations system for activitiesrelating to meteorology, climatology and operational hy-drology. Within the context of the IDNDR, the Organizationtakes a leading role concerning mitigation of disasterscaused by: Tropical cyclones; floods; droughts; tornadoesand severe thunderstorms; other severe weather phenom-ena such as storm surges and major snowstorms and extremelyhigh or low temperatures; and landslides and avalanches.

WMO contributes to the mitigation of other types ofdisasters through its involvement in the meteorologicaland hydrological aspects of insect plagues and forest firesand in the dissemination over its Global Telecommunica-tion System of tsunami warnings and certain seismologicaldata.

Response to natural disasters is at heart a nationalresponsibility but certain types of disasters, most notablytropical cyclones and droughts, are rarely confined withinnational borders. Even when the disaster itself affects onlyone country, there is much that that country can gain fromcooperating with its neighbours in assessing the risks andforecasting the occurrence of extreme events. Such co-operation is vital to weather forecasting the world over. Itis also important, for example, in studying and forecastingfloods on the many major rivers which cross internationalborders.

It is on this desire for international co-operation thatthe various international organizations have been founded.The World Weather Watch (WWW) system of WMO wasderived from this; the Organization also sponsors a seriesof regional tropical cyclone bodies and works closely witha network of river-basin, regional and global internationalorganizations to ensure that its aims are met and thatresources at its disposal are used for greatest efficiency.Examples of these organizations are the Economic andSocial Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), theoffice of the United Nations Disaster Relief Coordinator(UNDRO) and the League of Red Cross and Red CrescentSocieties.

While the detailed approach to each particular disas-ter and region of concern is different, there are certainprincipal elements in common which can be expressed as aseries of aims and needs.

Aim A: To be able to assess the magnitude ofthe risk of each type of disaster -expressed in terms of the likely fre-quency of such events.

I. Meteorological and hydrological aspects of natural disasters 197

Requirements A: (a)

(b)

(c)

Adequate data to suitably char-acterize occurrence of past dis-asters;

Techniques for analysis of thesedata to obtain estimates of risk;

Hardware, software and person-nel to apply these techniques.

Requirements D: (a) Periodic evaluation of risk as-sessments in the light of morerecent events;

Aim B: To be able to forecast, with sufficientaccuracy, the variables needed for theprovision of timely advance warningof the actual occurrence of a disastersuch as windspecd, water level andextreme temperatures.

Requirements B: (a)

(b)

Networks of observing platformsand communication links for thecollection of data in real-timeneeded to detect and monitorphenomena, where applicable, andto prepare forecasts;

Mathematical models and otheranalytical tools for the prepara-tion of the forecasts;

(c) Hardware, software and person-nel to apply these tools.

Aim C: To reduce to a minimum the impact ofany disaster on the population.

Requirements C: (a) Adoption and implementation ofzoning, building and other regu-lations to reduce the potentialimpact;

(b) Construction of works designedto reduce the impact;

(c) Disaster preparedness organiza-tion at the national and commu-nity levels, with appropriatelegislation;

(d) Trained personnel and an informedand sensitized public able andready to respond in times of im-pending disaster or emergency.

Aim D: To assess the degree of success ofdisaster reduction methods and plansand to implement improvements.

(b) Monitoring of the performanceof forecasting systems;

(c) Monitoring of effectiveness ofstructural measures;

(d) Periodic emergency exercises totest procedures;

(e) Revision with, where needed,upgrading of all components ofthe programme in the light of (a)to (d).

1. General approach

An adequate scientific basis and a variety of tried andtested methodologies, technologies and equipment are nowavailable to fulfil most of the needs listed. Further scien-tific advances and new or improved techniques would beextremely valuable and further studies, particularly researchin meteorology, should be promoted. The real, immediateand most important problem to be addressed by WMO, asfar as the IDNDR is concerned, with its ten-year span andemphasis on developing countries, however, lies in applyingthe existing proven technologies and procedures. Conse-quently, the main WMO thrust is on:

(a) Filling the gaps in the implementation of theobserving networks, telecommunications and dam-processingfacilities, as defined in the World Weather Watch Plan andwhich are required for establishing or upgrading warningsystems;

(b) Promoting, initiating or accelerating action onimproved response to warnings to ensure that they areeffectively used;

(c) Risk assessment, particularly as needed for dis-aster prevention measures;

(d) Public information, education and awareness.

In many developing countries the two great impedi-ments to such improvements at national level in the nearterm are:

- A lack of knowledge and expertise in the tech-nology concerned;

- Lack of funds to install, operate and maintainsystems using existing technology and proce-dures.

198Part Four: Activities of international agencies

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The basic requirements to overcome these impedi-ments are technical co-operation activities with the em-phasis on technology transfer and/or institution building,provision of equipment and facilities and human resourcesdevelopment.

2. Programmes involved

All the major programmes of WMO contribute to theaims of the IDNDR to a greater or lesser degree, namely:

World Weather Watch Programme

Hydrology and Water Resources Programme

Applications of Meteorology Programme

Research and Development Programme

World Climate Programme

- Education and Training Programme

Technical Cooperation Programme

While these Programmes are regularly adapted tomatch prevailing conditions and demands, they are long-term in nature: they have a considerable history and areexpected to continue well into the future. It is veryobvious, however, that many of WMO's activities have thesame aims as those of the IDNDR. One of WMO's majorobjectives has always been the reduction of loss of life andeconomic damage from natural disasters and its activitieswill continue throughout and beyond the Dacade. Severalof these activities, however, are being intensified andaccelerated during the IDNDR to emphasize WMO's rolewith the aim of saving yet more lives and reducing the levelof damage still further.

The outcome of such activities will be an improve-ment in the accuracy and timeliness of the forecasts andwarnings, in the response to these warnings and in theextent and effectiveness of disaster prevention and pre-paredness activities. While it is not at this time possible topredict the benefits to be derived in quantitative terms, orindeed to measure them precisely, even after the event,they should result in a substantial reduction in the loss oflife, human suffering, set-backs to national economies anddestruction of property caused by natural disasters of me-teorological or hydrological origin.

E. WMO plans for the IDNOR

Previous sections have presented the importance ofmeteorological and hydrological disasters, and have shownhow meteorological and hydrological services can act to

support disaster prevention and mitigation. Indeed, manyof the day-to-day activities of tlfese services are directlyrelevant to disaster prevention. It is thus natural that theWorld Meteorological Organization should take a majorrole in the IDNDR.

In June last year, the WMO Executive Council adopteda plan of action to guide the organization's activitiesduring the Decade. The plan recognizes four aims andmakes provision for achieving them. The aims are:

(1) To be able to assess the magnitude of the risk ofeach type of disaster;

(2) To be able to forecast, with sufficient accuracy,the parameters as needed for the provision of timely advancewarning of the actual occurrence of a disaster;

(3) To reduce to the minimum the impact of anydisaster on the population;

(4) To assess the degree of success of disaster re-duction methods and plans and to implement improvements.

While noting that many of the organization's activitiesmeet these aims, the plan of action also proposes threespecial projects for the IDNDR.

1. Project I - System for Technology Exchange forNatural Disasters (STEND)

The aim of the project is to provide information onthe technology which is available for application to reducenatural disasters and to facilitate the transfer of this tech-nology from the countries that developed it, to the coun-tries that need it. Technology relevant to all the types ofnatural disasters encompassed within the IDNDR is to beincluded. This technology will include instrumentationand other equipment, technical manuals and other guidancematerial and computer software.

A system (STEND) will be developed for collectinginformation on relevant operational technology and advis-ing potential users on the purpose, nature and conditionsfor acquisition of the technology concerned. STEND willbe modelled on the highly successful Hydrological Opera-tional Multipurpose Subprogramme (HOMS) of WMOand there will be close coordination between the two so asto take advantage of areas of common interest and to avoidduplication.

STEND will rely on inputs provided by nationalinstitutions with expertise and experience in the specifictopics of disaster reduction technology and on nationalfocal points whose role it will be to channel informationinto STEND and distribute information from STEND at

I. Meteorological and hydrological aspects of natural disasters 199

the national level. In view of this, the system will operatewith a small international staff and it can be expected to bevery cost-effective.

The system will be flexible so as to concentrate onthe technology identified as being of highest priority and ingeneral to respond to the needs of its users. Detailed plansfor its implementation will be drawn up on the basis ofadvice from a steering group composed of representativesof national agencies active in each field of expertise and ofinternational agencies having responsibilities in the fieldsconcerned.

2. Project II - Tropical Cyclone Warning System forthe South-west Indian Ocean Region

The objective of the project is to upgrade substan-tially the tropical cyclone warning system in the South-west Indian Ocean region through the application of mete-orological satellite and micro-computer technology andthe transfer of scientific knowledge. This will be accom-plished by strengthening the capabilities of the nationalmeteorological services to meet their responsibilities forthe provision of tropical cyclone warning services in theirrespective countries.

3. Project III - Comprehensive Risk Assessment

The aim of this project is to demonstrate the power ofapplying modern technology in making a comprehensiveassessment of certain types of risk within a given region. Itwould focus on the risk of flooding, of violent storms andof earthquakes. The modern technology involved willinclude geographic information systems and remote sens-ing.

An international team of experts will be formed toundertake the project. The experts will be drawn fromdeveloped countries, and the demonstration project will belocated in a developing country. The region chosen will besubject to the full range of hazards to be studied.

The project would see the preparation of a compre-hensive report on the causes, current risk and possible

future probability of these hazards. The combined riskswill be discussed and analyzed. The various items oftechnology used in the project will be generalized andpresented in forms appropriate for inclusion in STEND(see Project I above). The project will be used as a basis fortraining local experts and those from other developingcountries in the use of the technologies involved.

The project is expected to be implemented over aperiod of five years. It is anticipated that the services of theexperts who are members of the team, together with alltheir associated expenses, will be provided by their gov-ernments as part of their countries' contributions to IDNDR.Equipment would be given or lent on a similar basis. Theproject would be overseen by a steering group composedof representatives from the donor countries and the hostcountry for the project.

F. Conclusion

While we cannot prevent weather-related hazards,the loss of life and damage they cause can be minimized byusing adequate forecasts and warnings to take appropriateactions. In addition, climatological and hydrological analysisof extreme events, their frequency and intensity in variouslocations, can lead to the design of safer buildings andother structures and minimize economic losses. Such riskassessments can also save lives over the long term.

Meteorological and hydrological services obviouslyhave a major role to play here, especially in the context ofthe International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction.They must be key elements in national and regional pro-grammes to cope with disasters.

Much of the technology and expertise required tocombat the threat of natural disasters is available. Giventhe will and the resources, the technology and the expertisecan be used now to minimize the loss of life and reduce thedestruction caused by such events. WMO has a major roleto play in this vital work and the organization's manydecades of experiences are being placed at the service ofthe International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction.

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II. UNDRO'S ROLE AND PROJECTED ACTIVITIES IN THE FIRSTPHASE OF THE INTERNATIONAL DECADE FOR NATURAL

DISASTER REDUCTION (IDNDR)

by J. Nemec1

UNDRO's tasks in relation to natural disasters en-compass the complete disaster cycle, from the early warn-ing phase preceding the actual impact or occurrence throughthe emergency management and response phase to identi-fication of sectors for reconstruction and rehabilitationand, finally, covering the issue of mitigation, i.e, applieddisaster reduction as part of the development process. Assuch, it is obvious that the majority of UNDRO's activitiesare to be seen as directly related to the realization of theDecade's goals.

UNDRO recognizes clearly, however, that it cannotrestrict its efforts simply to putting renewed emphasis onits historical approach to disaster management through anincreased number of activities. The Decade has beenlaunched as a visionary 10-year effort to break the deadlockof insufficient recognition at all levels of the detrimentalimpacts of natural disasters and the potential to combatthese negative impacts effectively through the concreteapplication of existing technological and scientific meanswithin national development policies. In order to achievethe required awareness, UNDRO considers it necessary,particularly in the Decade's initial phase, to present anumber of projects to the international community thatrepresent bold steps forward in the fields of risk analysisand reduction and that, by successfully meeting national orregional requirements, act as a catalyst for a global effortfor improvement.

Consequently both branches of UNDRO responsi-ble, respectively, for relief and for disaster mitigation, willcontinuously evaluate their potential for additional activi-ties that will in themselves represent as many specificgoals of the IDNDR as possible. The Relief CoordinationBranch will continue to evaluate disaster response andcoordination efforts after the actual event at the nationaland international levels in order to provide indicators ofremaining gaps in those fields and to initiate adequatedevelopment, be it by streamlining the institutional orlegal framework for emergency response or by upgradingthe technical tools to enable higher efficiency. The Disaster

Mitigation Branch will increase its coordination and exchangeof information with all partners in disaster mitigation,particularly the specialized agencies of the United Nations,the Decade's National Committees, governments, regionalinstitutions, the technical community and, of course, theDecade's institutions, with the IDNDR Secretariat foremost.Through continuous historical analysis of disasters them-selves, previous mitigation efforts of countries at risk andcurrent disaster mitigation capabilities at the national,regional and international levels, it will strive to lay a basisfor increased awareness of the disaster issue, identificationof remaining gaps and needs and acceptance at the politicaldecision-making level of the need to apply mitigationefforts in the context and as part of economic development.It will assist these countries to develop specific mitigationprojects in close cooperation with other relevant UN agencies,promote technical or financial cooperation by the donorcommunity and provide information and assistance to therecipient countries for the actual implementation process.

In the first phase of the Decade, UNDRO has initi-ated a number of global and regional projects. Theseprojects are grouped in three major areas, the first beingsectoral approaches to specific developments in disastermanagement such as, for example, information management,search and rescue, disaster terminology and communications.The other two areas comprise education, public awarenessand training, on the one hand, and coordinated regionalapproaches to disaster mitigation, on the other hand. Allthese projects are intended to promote and fulfill the objec-tive of the IDNDR and are considered as high priorityactivities. The global projects are, of course, of importanceto this region and are presented below.

During 1990, UNDRO carried out a major study onits development requirements in the field of informationmanagement, not only with regard to an internal officesupport system but primarily with a view to improvedinternational information exchange. As a result of thisstudy, and as a contribution to the IDNDR, UNDRO isbeginning to implement an information systems enhance-

Cohsultant, Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Coordinator (UNORO), Geneva, Switzerland.

II. UNDRO's role and projected activities in the first phase of theInternational Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) 201

ment project that aims at the creation of a global interactivesystem for information exchange for disaster-related data.It is intended to support relief co-ordination and disastermitigation alike. Some of the basic tools are already inplace, in particular UNIENET, the United Nations Interna-tional Emergency Network. They need to be further developedin a partnership between UNDRO and other United Nationsagencies and programmes, governments, scientific andtechnical institutions, non-governmental organizations andinstitutional disaster managers. The project will placeparticular emphasis on the issue of diasaster-related databases,be it an inventory to provide knowledge about existingdatabases, the provision of technical access to such databases,so it can offer windows on UNIENET to particularlyinterested organizations, or the creation and maintenanceof disaster-related core-databases, such as disaster statis-tics, disaster history, resource registers, bibliographicalinventories, etc. In the context of this information systemsenhancement project, the following individual compo-nents are particularly relevant: (a) Database network de-velopment; (b) Disaster statistics; and (c) Historical data-base.

To develop an appropriate strategy not only for dis-aster relief but also for disaster preparedness and preven-tion, it is important to understand the risk and vulnerabilityof societies prone to natural disasters and to learn lessonsfrom past disasters. Since policy-makers are now moreaware that, from the cost-benefit point of view, the practi-cal application of preparedness and prevention measures isextremely effective in the development process, they arelooking forward to a collection of the disaster histories ofeach country. Furthermore, the International ad hoc Groupof Experts for IDNDR drew attention to the need foraccurate historical records of hazards and disasters forenhanced risk assessment. In this context, UNDRO hasdecided to establish a historical disaster database contain-ing information on hazards and disasters, rehabilitationand reconstruction processes, lessons learned from disas-ters, contact points for obtaining details, etc. Althoughsimilar projects are being implemented separately by severalinstitutes and universities, this project will provide theopportunity of unifying and possibly linking existing databasesas well as standardizing records to make data available inany computer network.

For some time, UNDRO has been collecting infor-mation for the development of a Disaster History Databaseas part of its computerized multi-database Disaster Man-agement Information System. Some months ago, for ex-ample, the Office acquired the "Disaster Events" databaseof the Centre for Research in the Epidemiology of Disas-ters (CRED), of the Catholic University of Louvain, Bel-gium, to which UNDRO contributed in the original designand provided source data. This database will be incorpo-

rated in the above-mentioned UNDRO Disaster HistoryDatabase. UNDRO has also been encouraging disaster-prone countries to develop similar databases at the countrylevel, in connection with their disaster mitigation projects,and has provided expert technical assistance in their designand implementation. This assistance has also included aninvestigation into the possibility of connecting local com-puters to UNIENET, in order to make these in-countrydisaster history databases available to the worldwide dis-aster management community. The most recent exampleof this is in Nepal where in November/December 1990 anUNDRO computer and communications specialist workedwith the Government to develop such a database and toexamine the facilities available there to connect the localcomputers to UNIENET. It is expected that both theimplementation of the database and the connection toUNIENET will have been completed by mid-1991.

Another specific example of a regional approachtowards a disaster database is the SEISMED InformationSystem (SMIS). SEISMED is a cooperative regional projectconcerning those Mediterranean countries that have signedthe Barcelona Convention. Its objectives are the develop-ment, transfer and adoption of common methods and tech-nologies for the reduction of seismic risk. There is nodoubt that the SEISMED initiative can find its applicationin other natural regions and sub-regions and UNDRO willbe pleased to assist ESCAP and countries in this region inthe necessary transfer of methodology and technology.

A second global initiative of UNDRO is the recentlystarted initiative towards improved international coopera-tion in the area of search and rescue (SAR). In severalemergencies, search and rescue (SAR) teams represent thefirst living sign of international solidarity. Experienceshows that while the value of their services is high, much,can still be done to strengthen coordination among govern-ments giving assistance and governments receiving assistance,as well as between the teams themselves.

At the Third Meeting of Officials in Charge of Na-tional Emergency Relief Services (NERS III), which washeld in Geneva from 19 to 20 October 1989, UNDRO wasrequested to hold a workshop for heads of search andrescue teams. In this connection, UNDRO is convening, inco-operation with the Austrian Government, the "Interna-tional Search and Rescue Workshop 1991", which willtake place at Wattener Lizum (near Innsbruck), Austria,from 8 to 12 April 1991. The immediate objective of thisworkshop is to strengthen coordination of internationalrelief within the field of search and rescue. Several gov-ernments are now preparing for the workshop, draftingfour Search and Rescue Protocols which will form a plat-form for future work.

202Pan Four: Activities of international agencies

in natural disaster reduction

Participants in the workshop, in addition to UNDRO,will be mainly heads of search and rescue teams withinternational experience or from selected developing countries,as well as governmental officials in charge of emergencyrelief services. Representatives from concerned UnitedNations agencies are also invited.

In the same context, UNDRO is developing a direc-tory of qualified SAR teams.

In a longer perspective, these two initiatives shouldbe seen as the first steps towards a common understandingof operational disaster management following sudden on-set disasters which, if agreed upon, should be expandedand lead the way to all areas of international, with emphasison regional, emergency cooperation. This work is, there-fore, in line with several major aspects of the IDNDR'smain objectives, such as the exchange of technology andknow-how in disaster management, reduction of cost andloss of life through higher efficiency in disaster response,and further sensitization for the necessity of a coordinatedinternational approach to disaster management.

Another major sectoral initiative will be undertakenin the field of disaster terminology. UNDRO will executea project with the objective of enhancing existing effortsfor interdisciplinary and field/office communication indisaster-related activities, including training, by preparinga widely-accepted and coordinated glossary of terms incooperation with, and on the basis of, existing partialterminological efforts of all concerned national institutionsand international governmental and non-governmentalorganizations.

The preparatory activities for the IDNDR, as supportedby UNDRO, have clearly identified one important andurgent need in the enhancement of UNDRO and othergovernmental and non-governmental organizations' effortswithin the IDNDR. This need is to facilitate communicationin the analysis, planning and operation of disaster-relatedprojects by establishing clear definitions of terms used atthe office and field levels. Such a need is particularly feltin the projects of the United Nations family, such as theUNDP/UNDRO Training Project mentioned below. Inaddition, this clarification of terminology is most importantfor interdisciplinary understanding in the integration ofprevention, mitigation and relief aspects of all projects tobe undertaken within the IDNDR.

UNDRO is in a very good position to develop andrapidly implement this terminology project since it hasalready prepared several partial glossaries of disaster-related terms, which may be used as basic material, to-gether with other sources. The output of the project is to bedivided into two parts: (a) establishment of a commonframework of basic terms in a multilingual glossary; and

(b) agreement on methodologies to amend or prepare spe-cialized glossaries in those disaster-related disciplines thatconsider such glossaries as needed.

As another major endeavour, this time in the field ofeducation, public awareness and training, UNDRO andUNDP have begun jointly to implement within the IDNDRframework a global disaster management training strategy.This project aims primarily at training UNDRO and UNDPstaff in this field. In line with the concept of the Decade,especially with regard to the creation of an overall aware-ness of the issue of natural disaster reduction at all levels,the project, however, goes further. It intends to improvethe overall United Nations system's capabilities in disastermanagement through constant coordinated professionaldevelopment and the sensitization of Headquarters' staffand the United Nations field system towards this issue. Inaddition, it wants to link United Nations efforts withnational development and enable planners at the nationallevel to assess their country's status in disaster manage-ment, define the gaps and develop strategies for improve-ment. Therefore, national counterparts will be invited toparticipate strongly in the training activities.

Among other UNDRO activities being undertaken incooperation with other United Nations agencies of majorinterest to this Symposium, and as implementation of therecommendations of the Interagency Task Force on Disas-ter Management (1988), UNDRO and UNDP have devel-oped a joint disaster management manual that is to serveprincipally as a guide for UNDP field staff, including theResident Representatives in their capacity as representa-tives of UNDRO. At the same time, the manual will beused as a principal tool in the UNDRO/UNDP DisasterManagement Training Strategy and, as such, be availableto the United Nations field system as a whole. Further-more, an UNDRO manual entitled "Mitigating NaturalDisasters" has been completed, and will be publishedwithin the framework of the IDNDR. The Manual, whichis both a methodological and a practical guide in projectinformation gathering and management, has been devel-oped as a training tool for disaster managers regionally andlocally at the technical, planning and policy-making lev-els. This manual complements the UNDRO/UNDP DisasterManagement Training Project. An equivalent manual isbeing developed for the area of relief coordination to serveprimarily as a guide for UNDRO staff; however, it willalso be a basis of information for other interested entities.

As for UNDRO participation in the initiatives in thisregion, in cooperation with UNDP and the IDNDR Secre-tariat UNDRO opened a South Pacific Project Office(UNDRO/SPPO) in Fiji at the end of 1990. The UNDRO/SPPO has been set up at the request of the governments inthe South Pacific region and has four immediate objec-tives:

II. UNDRO's role and projected activities in the first phase of theInternational Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) 203

(a) To identify, with the respective governments,subjects which merit closer attention in pre- andpost-disaster management;

(b) To assist in the formulation of project docu-ments with emphasis on training and demonstra-tion programmes;

(c) To help identify suitable organizations and indi-viduals in the region to assist in project imple-mentation;

(d) To assist, in cooperation with the IDNDR Secre-tariat, UNDP and Forum Secretariat in identify-ing financial resources.

Four mitigation needs assessment missions were carriedout in 1990 by UNDRO staff and consultants in six countries

in the region; Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, SolomonIslands, Tonga and Vanuatu. First follow-up activitieshave already started in Fiji, Samoa and Vanuatu, andUNDRO is ready to extend such cooperation to otherSouth Pacific island countries. High priority will be givento risk assessment and disaster preparedness and preven-tion activities in the form of demonstration projects andrelated training programmes.

A regional seminar on Strengthening Disaster Man-agementin the South Pacific, organized jointly by UNDRO/SPPO and Forum Secretariat, is planned for March 1991.The objectives of the seminar are to exchange views onnational and regional aspects of integrating pre- and post-disaster management; to set priorities and to outline aframework for action and sharpen the focus of UNDRO'spotential role and fields of activities in the region.

204Part Four: Activities of international agencies

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IH. MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF NATURAL DISASTERSON HUMAN SETTLEMENTS

by Ignacio Armillas1

A. Introduction

The Asia and Pacific region covers a vast area of theplanet, in fact, for all practical purposes it is a hemispherein itself. It is therefore not surprising that every type ofnatural disaster known can and does occur at least some-where in this region. Some countries in the region areexposed to one or only a few types of natural disasters,while others are exposed to all or practically all knownnatural disasters. The regularity and frequency of reoccurrencealso varies from country to country and according to thetype of natural disaster. However, all countries of Asia andthe Pacific are subject to natural disasters.

It would be tedious to list even the major disastersthat have occurred in Asia and the Pacific in modern times.To make the point it is sufficient to mention that in thecourse of the first year of the International Decade forNatural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) several major natu-ral disasters occurred in the region. These disasters addedup to considerable loss of life and significantly affected theeconomies of several countries. The three most prominentdisasters of 1990 were the Manjil earthquake of 21 June inthe Islamic Republic of Iran, the Luzon earthquake of 16July in the Philippines, and the cyclone that hit the Indianstate of Andhra Pradesh in May of 1990. Of course, therewere other disasters such as the typhoon that hit the centralPhilippine islands in November, the earthquake in thesouth-western area of Iran, also in November, as well asfloods, landslides and other disasters.

1. Earthquakes

As a result of the earthquake of 21 June 1990 in Iran,which centred in the provinces of Gilan and Zanjan, 100 000houses were destroyed and the nation mourned an estimated40 000 dead. The affected area was large and varied, coveringthe plains on the shores of the Caspian sea and the mountainousareas to the south. The settlement pattern was characterized bythe concentration of population in over 1 600 small villagesdispersed in remote valleys and small cities on the plains. Thearea affected covered some 30 000 km2.

All told, half a million people were left homeless andin need of shelter. The earthquake also destroyed 216medical buildings, two hospitals, 1 329 schools, as well asmany shops and other commercial buildings. Extensivedamage was caused to industrial plants, agricultural pro-duction, water supplies and transportation networks. Thesedamages toinfrastructure were analysed and fully reportedin the UNDRO Technical Report on this earthquake preparedin August 1990.

It is clear that the economic, social and physicaldevelopment of a large region in Iran has been crippled bythis natural disaster, with serious repercussions on na-tional accounts. Not since the Tangshan earthquake inChina in 1976, has the world seen an industrializing andagriculturally important region so widely and comprehen-sively laid waste.

Not four weeks had passed since the destructiveManjil earthquake that another major tremor struck inAsia. This time the disaster occurred across the continentin the Philippines. The 16 July earthquake struck north-central Luzon, severing road and telecommunications links,and making rubble of homes, commercial establishments,factories and agricultural installations. According to theNational Disaster Coordinating Council, more than 1 200people died, while more than 2 700 were injured, and anestimated 120 000 people were left homeless. Propertylosses exceeded US$500 million. Physical damage wasgenerally confined to localized pockets, except in highlandareas of Benguet and Nueva Vizcaya where it was exten-sive. The nation's capital, Manila, although badly shaken,suffered only modest damage.

Although the immediate physical damage was lim-ited to north-central Luzon, the earthquake placed a heavynew burden on a nation already struggling with majoreconomic problems. The destruction caused by the earth-quake has had serious repercussions on the lives andeconomic activities of not only the people directly af-fected, but of Filipinos in general. The problem of brokenroad links illustrates the point. It choked the flow of goodsand supplies for farmers and manufacturers. The disaster

Coordinator, Asia and the Pacific Unit, Technical Cooperation Division, United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (HABITAT).

III. Mitigating the effects of natural disasters on human settlements 205

has caused people who barely noticed the seismic event tofeel their standard of living decline in its aftermath. Theearthquake has increased food prices, unemployment, andpressure on the national balance of payments.

The affected physical environment, cities, towns,villages, and transport and other networks, will have to berehabilitated for the economic and social systems to returnto "normalcy". The estimated cost of reconstruction andassociated development will be more than $US 1.5 billion.

2. Cyclones and typhoons

Earthquakes were not the only source of major lossof life and property to the forces of nature. Asia and thePacific were also affected by cyclones and typhoons. Themajor storm to hit mainland Asia in 1990 lashed coastalAndhra Pradesh State in India. This cyclone was the worstof the century to hit the country as far as intensity wasconcerned. However, pre-disaster planning, based primarilyon the lessons of the cyclone of 1977 which killed anestimated 10 000 people, kept the death toll to under 1 000.Nevertheless, the 1990 storm wreaked destruction in excessof that caused by the 1977 cyclone. Villages were inun-dated, houses collapsed or had their roofs blown away,other structures such as bridges and towers, failed, cropsand stored grains were lost. Transportation and communi-cation networks also suffered major physical damage. Theenvironment also suffered, there was loss to the fertility ofland due to inundation of sea water over vast coastal areas.

In economic terms, the Andhra Pradesh Cyclonecaused total losses to private and public property well inexcess of $1.0 billion. The total cropped agricultural areaaffected was over 300 000 hectares and 460 000 head oflivestock perished. The cyclone also caused extensivebreaches to railway track and damage to bridges. Othersurface transport networks also suffered damage as didtelecommunications and energy generating installations.Over 250 000 houses were damaged in villages and townsin the affected area.

B. Impact on human settlements

From the examples that have been briefly described,one thing is evident: natural events such as seismic activityor windstorms become natural disasters when they resultin loss of life and affect the man-built environment. Moreover,the destructive effects of natural events concentrate, on themost part, in human settlement systems. This is to say theconcentrations of human activity (cities, towns and villages),and the communication, transportation and distributionnetworks that link them. It is here that the greatest risk tohuman life and property exist, simply as a function ofdensity. It is also because of the concentration of social

and economic activities in cities, that when they are im-pacted by a disaster, the overall social and economic fabricof the country as a whole suffers negative consequences.Thus, if we are to consider reducing the effects of naturaldisasters on the social and economic well being of acountry, we must focus on reducing the levels of risk inhuman settlement systems.

Ironically, it is after a natural disaster that interest inmitigation is most intense. Having just witnessed theeffects of the forces of nature, people are more inclined tothink about the benefits of mitigation. Therefore, that isthe best time to reach the professionals, influence thedecision makers and convince the private sector. Theopportunity must not be lost. Moreover, it is during thereconstruction and rehabilitation phase that major invest-ments will be made. Such investments could be severaltimes higher than those that would otherwise have beenmade in the normal course of events. These investmentswill result in building and construction that will be in placefor many decades to come. This infusion of investmentand the physical heritage that it will create represent bothan opportunity to regenerate the economic and social fabricof the region and the quality of the built environment wewill leave to future generations.

During the foreseeable future, there will be a rapidgrowth of industrial development in the Asia and Pacificregion accompanied by urban expansion and increasedpopulation. Experience has already demonstrated thatnatural disasters have tended to become increasingly de-structive since they affect concentrations of population,which are growing year after year. Depending on the site,such instantaneous disasters may very well lead to increasedeconomic, political and social instability, the adverse effectsof which will further erode the capacity of the regionstricken, or even the entire country, to cope with theconsequences of natural and, as a chain effect, man-madedisasters.

1. Protection of human settlements

Specialized or comprehensive assessment of natural(and technological) hazards, including a rigorous scientific,technological and intellectual approach will be required tosolve this truly global problem. The problem is basicallyone of protecting human life and orderly economic andsocial development: a process centred in human settlements.

Even though each disaster is quite unique, the prob-lems created are basically of the same nature, thus, quiteforeseeable. Knowledge of the profile of related disastersenables planning of pre-disaster measures and activitiesfor effective risk management through experience andtechnology transfer, performance of pre-disaster demon-

206Part Four: Activities of international agencies

in natural disaster reduction

stration projects, elaboration of programmes for technicalassistance, education and training, as well as the evalua-tion of the effectiveness and organization of pre-disastermeasures and activities.

Efforts to mitigate the effects of natural disastersmust be interdisciplinary since they must cover social,economic, environmental and physical aspects. However,the major responsibility for reducing risk to natural disas-ters, from a technical point of view, rests on engineers,architects and urban and regional planners, for these arethe professionals that shape the physical environment.Engineering has provided methods and techniques forreducing the vulnerability of buildings, infrastructure andother civil works. These methods have been assimilated,to a large extent, into the work of engineers and architects.In urban and regional planning, the picture is far lesspositive. While planners have learned to integrate eco-nomic, social and, more recently, environmental factorsinto the planning process, they have yet to do the sameregarding vulnerability and risk reduction. The reason forthis deficiency is partly the lack of methodologies whichcan be applied to this purpose. Clearly, there is a need todevelop risk mitigation techniques and methodologies,that can be integrated into the work of the developmentplanner.

2. Planning for disaster mitigation

Some efforts at developing techniques and method-ologies for integrating natural disaster mitigation conceptsinto physical planning and development are being made.For example, the work of engineers finds its way, more andmore, into building codes and regulations. Concepts suchas risk zonation are becoming better understood by urbanand regional planners. But overall, risk and vulnerabilityreduction concepts are at best paid only lip service in theplanning jargon. If we add to this the difficult politicalrealities and expediencies of the private sector we come torealize that we are a long way from effective vulnerabilityawareness in so far as planning and development areconcerned.

3. Preparedness tools

Quantitative risk and vulnerability assessment toolsare needed for the planning of new developments andappropriate post-disaster reconstruction and rehabilitationpurposes. More advanced methods, procedures and mod-els for assessment of risk and vulnerability should bedeveloped in order to provide the data and knowledge basein the following areas:

(a) Assessment of the accuracy of existing methodsfor evaluating hazard, risk zoning and microzoning and

their practical application in engineering, land-use plan-ning, development planning and public information andtraining, as well as performance of the sensitivity analysisof the final results on factors controlling most influentiallythe aforestated outputs;

(b) Reviewing of various approaches for risk miti-gation under different socio-economic conditions, with anemphasis on the post-disaster period of revitalization andreconstruction;

(c) Estimation of vulnerable regions, areas and points,processes and/or activities and planning of disaster prepar-edness and prevention of many primary and secondaryphenomena accompanying the major natural disaster. Thegreater preparedness for the expected event is, the moreeffective and timely organized relief operation, recon-struction and revitalization will be;

(d) Development of improved survey samplingmethods for estimating physical, functional and economiclosses and damages due to large-scale natural disasters;

(e) Improvement of data collection systems to in-crease their utility in estimating the size of physical, func-tional and economic losses for the expected natural events;

(f) Fostering of scientific and engineering endeavorsaimed at bridging critical gaps in knowledge that exist onthe way of reducing the natural disaster induced losses;and,

(g) Developmentof rigorous organizational researchon the factors that facilitate or hinder the effectiveness ofthe pre-disaster preparedness and/or emergency responseas well as disaster relief efforts in post-disaster conditions.

4. Mitigation strategies

Given an improved knowledge base it would then bepossible to:

(a) Devise new mechanisms and strategies for con-tinuous application and updating of existing knowledge,taking into account the cultural, social and economic di-versities within the region;

(b) Guide industrial and residential development inregions expected to be, or already prone to disasters, inorder to reduce both human and property losses;

(c) Control certain kinds of hazardous activities inindustrial plants carried out in regions of expected risk; tomanage and develop environmentally sound strategies forcountering the threat of increased susceptibility to second-ary effects caused by a natural disaster;

in. Mitigating the effects of natural disasters on human settlements 207

(d) Plan the most rational and effective access to theregion stricken by a natural disaster, to provide access foremergency, disaster relief and other technical and expertservices, and to plan the location of the disaster relief andemergency service facilities; and

(e) Disseminate the existing and new informationrelated to the measures for assessment, prediction andmitigation of hazard and risk.

5. Loss prediction and evaluation

One area of research which has advanced in recentyears is quantitative loss prediction methods. Two decadesago, there existed almost no predictive estimates of dam-age that might result from natural disasters. The developmentof various procedures for estimation of losses has beenprompted by the increased loss potential due to rapiddevelopment and concentration of material property indisaster-prone regions. However, the development of asingle damage prediction methodology is presently notfeasible because of the complexity of the problem and thestrong lack of a uniform data base.

Loss evaluation is carried out at present with varyingdegrees of rigor. However, all models (theoretically orempirically based) proposed for predicting losses share thecommon necessity of performing a series of complex pro-cedures requiring extensive computations and proper dataacquisition and handling. A systematic approach shouldinclude the following five basic elements:

(a) Inventory and classification of the existing ele-ments at risk with their zonation within each zone of theconsidered area.

(b) Prediction of the site-dependent hazard withevaluation and presentation of hazard parameters for eachzone including the effects of local conditions in modifyingthe characteristics of the events in the considered zones.

(c) Assessment of vulnerability and development ofvulnerability functions based on experimental and theoreticalstudies, and empirical data banks from the past events.

(d) Loss prediction with cumulative presentation oflosses for all elements at risk including density distributionwith mapping for each zone and considered hazard levels.

(e) Risk analysis and optimization with considera-tion of the existing and improved scenarios of land use andurbanization. Through the functional improvement of theexisting conditions in the development plans, physicalimprovements will be incorporated for each element at riskand presented for each zone and urban area/region for theconsidered levels of hazard, representing alternatives of

improved scenarios. Risk analysis for the improved sce-narios and comparative analysis in respect to the existingconditions will lead to an optimized land use scenariocausing minimum losses for a given level of hazard. Theoptimized land use scenarios could be presented with theoptimized level of physical losses as a percentage of thefloor area for all elements at risk, or further elaborated intooptimized level of economic losses considering the currentmarket value for all the elements at risk cumulatively.

On this basis, a loss prediction and risk optimizationassessment can be made. This assessment is essential inorder to develop technically feasible and economicallyjustifiable measures for effective pre-disaster risk man-agement, or planning for post-disaster reconstruction andrevitalization of a stricken region.

C. Conclusions

Human settlement planning is unfortunately a longrange activity highly vulnerable to conflicting prioritiesand demands, especially if these are of an economic orpolitical nature. Human settlements and their spatial dis-tribution develop in response to a combination of social,economic, environmental and political forces. Risk tonatural events is by-and-large a minor consideration, if atall, in this process. Ultimately, each society should accepta compromise between exposure to risk and long-termeconomic and social necessities. In any case, the decisionshould be made through balancing the pre-disaster capitalinputs required for achievement of the accepted level ofrisk and safety, and the estimated value of expected losses.

This brief overview began with some illustrations ofmajor natural disasters that affected the Asia and Pacificregion in 1990 and presented some general strategies thatcould be applied to reducing those losses. Let me put forthone suqgestion that could contribute to the reduction ofloss of life and property due to natural disasters in the Asiaand Pacific Region.

There is clearly a need to learn more about the effectsof natural disasters on human environment, and morespecifically on human settlements, since it is here thatsocial, economic and cultural activity is concentrated.There is also clearly a need to develop the tools andmethodologies for mitigating the effects of natural disas-ters on human settlements; and, finally, there is a need todisseminate this knowledge.

To this end, a region-wide applied research institu-tion which would carry out the functions outlined abovewould be desirable. Such an institution could be createdeither through the strengthening of an existing body, or

208Part Four: Activities of international agencies

in natural disaster reduction

through the formation of a new institution. Either way, thisinitiative would represent a valuable contribution towardsthe attainment of the objectives of the IDNDR.

The following list provides examples of natural dis-aster-related projects in Asia and the Pacific executed bythe United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (Habi-tat):

(1) Reconstruction of rural housing in flood-affectedareas of Bangladesh (BGD/90/006).

(2) Assistance in the implementation of a post-earthquake rehabilitation programme, Gilan and Zanjanprovinces of Iran (IRA/90/004).

(3) Earthquake emergency reconstruction and reha-bilitation programme, central and eastern Nepal (NEP/88/053).

(4) Rehabilitation and reconstruction of flood-dam-aged areas in Kashur Tehsil, Pakistan (PAK/90/002).

(5) Landslide hazard mapping, two districts in SriLanka (SRL/89/001).

(6) Disaster preparedness and rehabilitation,subproject No. 3: Disaster-resistant building techniques,Binh Tri Thien province, Viet Nam (VIE/85/019).

(7) Rehabilitation activities following Typhoon Irving,Thanh Hoa Province, Viet Nam (VIE/89/035).

IV. The Asian Development Bank: Disaster mitigation activities 209

IV. THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK: DISASTER MITIGATION ACTIVITIES

by Werner M. Schelzig1

The Asian and Pacific region in which the AsianDevelopment Bank operates is prone to all types of naturaldisasters. They entail destruction of assets, loss of life andsevere economic setbacks. In short, disasters disrupt de-velopment.

Disaster mitigation is possible, desirable and war-ranted. The Bank considers disaster mitigation as part of athree pronged approach to development, focussing onachieving sustainable economic growth, poverty allevia-tion and environmental protection.

Traditionally, the Bank's approach to dealing withdisasters has been reactive, and essentially limited to financingrehabilitation activities after disasters had occurred. Forinstance, during 1988-1990 the Bank committed some$0.4 billion for emergency rehabilitation projects in sixdeveloping member countries (DMCs). Rehabilitationlending at times took substantial parts of the annual lend-ing programme of individual DMCs, such as Bangladeshin 1988 (35 per cent) and 1989 (24 per cent), and thePhilippines (15 per cent) and Samoa (100 per cent) in1990. The Bank has formulated a set of rehabilitationpolicies governing its lending responses in emergencysituations.2 These policies by now have become wellestablished. Looking ahead, the Bank will, of course,continue to respond to the needs of its developing membercountries for rehabilitation after disasters.

However, the Bank has become increasingly awareof the need for proactive mitigation measures before dis-asters strike. It is the Bank's policy to include vulnerabilityanalysis and risk assessment in all of its future projects andincorporate disaster mitigation measures into the design ofprojects in DMCs prone to natural disasters.

In addition to its project financing for these purposes,the Bank utilizes its technical assistance facility for providingadvisory and project preparatory technical assistance to itsDMCs. Such technical assistance is also available for theformulation of disaster mitigation plans, devising mitiga-

tion strategies and designing measures to carry them out.This type of assistance is available at the regional level, atthe country level and at the project level. An example ofsuch assistance is the regional study on disaster mitigationwhich has been financed under a regional technical assist-ance grant by the Bank.3

The regional study aimed at:

(a) Enhancing the awareness of DMCs of the needfor an active developmental effort to mitigate natural dis-asters;

(b) Producing documentation on disaster manage-ment in selected DMCs;

(c) Improving the understanding of the techniquesof disaster mitigation through structural and non-structuralmitigation measures; and

(d) Promoting cooperation in designing and imple-menting national strategies for mitigating the impact ofnatural disasters on economic development and the formu-lation of national and regional strategies.

Three major activities were financed by this techni-cal assistance. First, a regional seminar was held forrepresentatives of DMCs dealing with the formulation ofcountry-specific disaster management responses. Second,to facilitate discussions, five papers were provided. Atechnical paper was prepared covering disaster incidence,risk assessment and vulnerability analysis and analyzingstructural and non-structural measures that may be imple-mented with a view to mitigate natural disasters. Inaddition, four country case studies were produced (onBangladesh, Nepal, Philippines and the South Pacific countriesas a group) summarizing the lessons of experience andcurrent disaster management practices in the DMCs con-cerned, with a view to designing general response mecha-nisms for closing identified gaps in existing disaster miti-gation practices with and without outside assistance.4

Development Policy Office, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines.See Doc. R74-87, Rehabilitation Assistance to Small DMCs Affected by Natural Disasters, dated 17 June 1987; and Doc. R191 -Rehabilitation Assistance After Disasters, dated 2 February 1989.Sec TAR:STU 23145, Technical Assistance for A Regional Study on Disaster Mitigation, dated October 1989.Drafts of the regional study have been provided to the participants of the ESCAP/UNDRO Symposium for ready reference.

8, Revision 1, Final,

210Part Four; Activities of international agencies

in natural disaster reduction

A third activity under the Bank's technical assist-ance is the production of a Disaster Manager's Handbook.The Handbook is currently in its final drafting stages. It isintended eventually to serve as a reference guide for thoseactively involved in dealing with natural disaster manage-ment in DMCs. The handbook will be a practical referencemanual dealing with specific topics in disaster manage-ment and providing specific guidelines on how to deal withthem in a disaster situation. The focus is on addressingdisaster managers' individual local requirements with re-gard to planning, policy, and institution building both ex-post and ex-ante.

It is envisaged that the Bank's regional study willeventually be followed by country-specific disaster miti-gation activities as initiated by the national authorities,which may be supported by the Bank or other bilateral andmultilateral agencies at the request of individual DMCs.

Such activities may follow perhaps the example ofthe envisaged mitigation activities under the flood actionplan the Bank is now supporting in Bangladesh in closecooperation with the international community under thechairmanship of the World Bank. Assistance may also beextended to developing regional cooperation among DMCsin disaster mitigation and preparedness, building on thevaried experience some of the developing member coun-tries possess. For instance, the experience with the Philip-pine typhoon resistant core shelter project or the Fijibuilding extension service, Indonesia's efforts in mappingearthquake risks and volcano hazards, the experience gainedin the People's Republic of China with hazard mappingand research for developing appropriate mitigation technologyall are worth being disseminated throughout the countriesof the region prone to natural hazards. These experiencesare not uniformly well known throughout the region. Thestress should be on sharing knowledge, drawing the les-sons of experience and implementing proven approachesof some DMCs in others as well.

The International Decade for Natural Disaster Re-duction provides a framework for concerted action duringthe 1990s. The Asian Development Bank welcomes theefforts being undertaken and closely associates itself withthe concerns of the Decade. The Bank's seminal study ofdisaster mitigation has already resulted in raising the awarenessof all concerned and in follow-up action by ESCAP andUNDRO for the region and the South Pacific, respectively.The Bank will continue to be actively involved in promot-ing the goals of IDNDR as they concern its developingmember countries.

International cooperation is vital, if there is any hopeof coming to grips with the objectives of IDNDR andimplementing them in developing Asia and the Pacific.The problems ahead are formidable and can only be tack-led if on the donors' side there is division of labour, burdensharing, and pooling of expertise and coordination in allo-cating financial resources. The Bank is interested inevolving a coordinated approach and in cofinancing reha-bilitation and mitigation operations, providing technicalassistance and sharing of expertise in a cooperative envi-ronment in the emerging field of disaster management.

The Asian and Pacific region is fortunate to have afocal point for disaster related activities in the AsianDisaster Preparedness Centre at the Asian Institute ofTechnology. The Centre may assist in formulating disastermitigation approaches and providing training in the emergingfield to officials in the developing member countries. Tomeet the challenging requirements of the region duringIDNDR, the ADPC needs further strengthening, for instancethrough establishing in-house economic expertise andwidening its consulting capabilities for damage assessment,formulating proposals for rehabilitation projects and advisingon disaster mitigation measures of the structural and non-structural types.

Important preconditions for successful disaster miti-gation already exist in the Asian and Pacific region. TheIDNDR provides an excellent framework for concertedaction in the years ahead. The Bank intends to continue toplay an active role in implementing the goals of the Decadein close coordination with the international communityand to the benefit of its DMCs. The Bank is confident thatwith its forthcoming Regional Study on Disaster Mitigationand the "Disaster Manager's Handbook" important newground has been broken in the emerging field of disastermitigation in the Asian and Pacific region. The Bank isconcerned that the findings and conclusions of the regionaltechnical assistance operation will be reflected in regionaland country specific disaster mitigation activities.

How to fund disaster mitigation activities is a majorchallenge. There are no ready solutions. Innovativeapproaches by DMCs and the international community,perhaps coordinated by IDNDR bodies, need to be explored.One thing is clear, an increased commitment of resourcesto mitigation today, means fewer catastrophic disasterstomorrow.

This is a worthwhile goal. The Bank will continue tocontribute towards achieving this goal.

V. IDNDR related activities at United Nations Centre for Regional Development (UNCRD) 211

V. IDNDR RELATED ACTIVITIES AT UNITED NATIONS CENTREFOR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT (UNCRD)

by Hidehiko Sazanami1 and Isao Tsukagoshi2

A. Introduction

On behalf of the United Nations Department of TechnicalCooperation for Development (UNDTCD), a report ispresented on UNCRD's past activities and future plans inrelation to the IDNDR as an example of IDNDR projectsby a United Nations agency.

It is not necessary to repeat the significance of theIDNDR. It is only needed to consider how practical actioncan be undertaken to achieve a less hazardous world. Thebasic orientation of the IDNDR has been provided in theGuidelines for Implementation of the Secretary General'sreport at the 44th United Nations General Assembly. Itemphasizes the coordination between national programmesand international efforts and recommends, as the basis of anational programme, hazard prediction, risk assessment,disaster preparedness and disaster management. It alsorefers to the importance of the application, exchange anddissemination of knowledge and information, and to thenecessity of technical assistance and technology transfer.

UNCRD, as a member of the United Nations commu-nity, recognizes its role in the IDNDR as contributing tothose programmes and activities from the aspect of regionaldevelopment, in particular through the training of humanresources and research cooperation with developing coun-tries.

UNCRD has been active in its efforts towards preparingfor and launching the IDNDR for the past five years bymainly organizing and implementing seminars, workshopsand symposia. Now, as the second year of the decadebegins, there is a need for a clearer perspective for futureactivities.

B. Towards the IDNDR

Disaster prevention has long been considered as afield of significant importance in the regional developmentprogramme of UNCRD. Since 1984, when the basicconcept of the IDNDR was proposed at the Eighth World

Symposium of Earthquake Engineering, UNCRD has en-deavoured to make its contribution by organizing sympo-sia, workshops, and seminars. Major examples of thoseactivities are presented below.

1. International Seminar on Regional DevelopmentPlanning for Disaster Prevention

This seminar, held in September 1986 at Nagoya,Shizuoka, and Tokyo, had three main themes: drawing upa set of guidelines on policy implementation in disasterprevention; improvement of technology for disaster prediction,forecasting, emergency relief, post-disaster recovery andreconstruction; and reports and analyses of specific casesof disasters.

2. First International Research and TrainingSeminar on Regional Development Planning for

Disaster Prevention

This seminar, held in October 1987 at Tokyo andNagoya, had the following main objectives: To investigateways to strengthen the resiliency of communities in developingcountries through the integration of pre-, mid-, and post-disaster measures in regional development planning; andto set guidelines for completing curricula and teachingmaterials for use in organizing training courses.

3. Second International Research and TrainingSeminar on Regional Development Planning for

Disaster Prevention

This seminar, held in July 1988 at Nagoya and Shimizu,was cosponsored by the Institute of Social Safety Science(Japan) and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute(United States). The following themes were discussed:policy problems of earthquake prediction; public and pri-vate awareness; estimation of earthquake vulnerability/damage; fire after an earthquake, and hazardous materials;short-term emergency responses; and long-term recovery/reconstruction.

' Director, United Nations Centre for Regional Development (UNCRD), Nagoya, Japan.2 Senior Disaster Management Planner, UNCRD.

212Part Four: Activities of international agencies

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4. International Symposium on Challenges of theIDNDR

The symposium, had in April 1989 at Yokohama,was jointly organized with the United Nations Departmentof Technical Cooperation for Development (UN/DTCD),with the collaboration of the national and local governmentsof Japan. Members of the International Ad-Hoc Group ofExperts for the IDNDR and experts from Japan attendedthe symposium to share their basic ideas pertaining to thereport of the Fourth Meeting of the Group of Experts andalso to exchange views and information.

5. Third International Research and TrainingSeminar on Regional Development Planning forDisaster Prevention, September 1989, Nagoya

The following themes were discussed: flood disasterprevention and mitigation strategies from the viewpoint ofinformation systems; and institutional arrangements forintegrating measures against flood disasters into the regionaldevelopment planning process such as land-use regulations,evaluation of safety in development, regional conservation,and infrastructural equipment.

C. Launching the IDNDR

In 1990, recognized as the first year of the Decade,UNCRD planned and undertook three major projects, namely:

1. UNCRD-CIRDAP Workshop on IntegratedApproach to Disaster Management and Regional

Development Planning with People's Participation

The main aim of the workshop, held in January-February 1990 at Dhaka, Bangladesh, was to emphasizethe inclusion of disaster management and communityparticipation in development planning and to assist thedeveloping countries of Asia and the Pacific region inhuman resource development through research and train-ing in order to achieve that goal.

Creation of a Hazard Resilient Society," two importantissues were pointed out; one was the improvement oftechnology for the development of accurate hazard mapsand the formulation of land-use planning based on suchmaps; another was how to make legislation regarding thesehazard maps and how and what organization should implementthem. Following these excellent presentations and mean-ingful discussions, the conference adopted fifteen tasks inits recommendations.

3. Fourth International Research and TrainingSeminar on Regional Development Planning for

Disaster Prevention, October 1990, Nagoya

A debate among international experts and an Open-Forum were scheduled during this seminar. In the first partof the program me, eight papers were presented and discussedunder the theme of "Socio-economic Impacts of Disasters." UNCRD was particularly interested in clarifying thestructure of damage development in order to assess disasterrisk appropriately including the accurate prediction ofindirect damage, and to minimize effects of direct damageand prevent economic repercussions and social unrest inthe aftermath of a major disaster. To this end, four expertsfrom the United States reported on their studies related tothe Loma Prieta earthquake from the aspects of post-disaster living conditions, transportation network, economicimpact on small business and the insurance industry'sresponse, and four experts from Latin America and Japanpresented their experiences and studies on disaster effectsin the reconstruction process.

D. Contribution to the IDNDR

A detailed plan of the priorities for IDNDR action isexpected to be presented by the Scientific and TechnicalCommittee (STC) which is scheduled to be held in 1991.Consequently, UNCRD may have to rearrange its futureprogramme in accordance with the direction of the STC. Inthe present situation, however, it is believed that the followingproposed projects will be able to contribute to the IDNDR:

2. IDNDR International Conference 1990 Japan,September-October 1990, Yokohama and Kagoshima

With UNCRD serving as a co-organizer togetherwith the central and local governments of Japan, eminentexperts on disaster prevention/regional development wereinvited from all over the world. Those experts contributedgreatly to the conference through nine presentation sessionsand two summarizing and concluding sessions. Numerouspresentations and active discussions took place regardingdisaster management and regional development. For ex-ample, at the session on "Regional Development for the

1. Series of workshops and seminars for trainingmodules on disaster management in rural areas.

During 20-24 January 1991,a seminar titled "UNCRD-CIRDAP Country Seminar on Development of Modulesfor Training on Integrated Approach to Rural Develop-ment and Disaster Management in Bangladesh," was heldin Dhaka. Experts from Bangladesh and overseas, togetherwith participants from local areas, were involved in thepresentations and discussions on: rural development plan-ning approach; integrated rural development and disastermanagement; people's participation in disaster management

V, IDNDR related activities at United Nations Centre for Regional Development (UNCRD) 213

and rural development; and training on an integrated ap-proach to rural development and disaster management.

This seminar, focused on issues related to Bangla-desh, was organized as a case study follow up of the 1990workshop where international experiences were presentedand discussed. For the next step of this project, workshopsfor collecting information from the entire region of Asiaand the Pacific and training seminars on specific issueswill be combined into one integrated programme, andimplemented in November 1991 and November 1992.Following this programme, in 1993 an expert group meet-ing will be held to finalize training modules on ruraldevelopment and disaster management.

2. Training programme on the development of light-weight construction technology for housing in

disaster-prone areas, 1991, Japan

To reduce the damage from earthquakes in develop-ing countries, it is essential to improve conventional hous-ing construction methods. In particular, in North Africa,most of Latin America, and the climatically dry zones ofAsia, heavy materials such as stone, brick or dried mudblock are popular for constructing traditional houses inmasonry, adobe or similar construction. The effectivenessof light-weight construction in reduction of damages causedby earthquakes was obvious when a comparison of theJune 1990 earthquake in Iran and the July 1990 earthquakein the Philippines was made. In the former case, more than20 000 people died because of destruction caused by heavyweight structures, while in the latter case less than 2 000deaths were sustained due to the popularity of woodenconstruction. In this connection, UNCRD has decided toassist researchers in development of an adequate light-weight construction methodology suitable to given eco-nomic, climatic and seismic environments. Through theabove training programme, they will have the chance tohave discussions on this subject with Japanese experts inthe academic, practical and administrative fields.

3. Workshops and seminars in the Latin AmericanRegion on disaster prevention and regional

development, 1991-93, Peru

Most of the countries in the Latin American regionare vulnerable to major earthquakes, and their economicdifficulties prevent them from applying advanced technol-ogy for reduction of damages. Accordingly, the majorobjective of this project is to establish a way for incorpo-rating disaster reduction with advanced technology andregional development. This project will be organized incollaboration with the Peru-Japan Centre for Seismic In-vestigation and Disaster Mitigation (CISMID) established

in Lima with the assistance of the Japan InternationalCooperation Agency (JICA).

4. Fifth International Research and TrainingSeminar on Regional Development Planning for

Disaster Prevention, 1991, Nagoya

This is an annual programme organized by the Dis-aster Prevention Unit of UNCRD. The main topic of theseminar has not yet been decided on, but one proposal isfor recent major earthquakes to be compared with theNohbi earthquake which occurred in the Nagoya region ofJapan 100 years ago. This seminar will be included in thecommemoration programme of the twentieth anniversaryof UNCRD which is planned for November 1991.

5. Training Programme on Earthquake Engineeringand Disaster Management for Establishing BuildingAdministration System in the Philippines, 1991-92,

Japan, Philippines

This is a strategic assistance programme proposed inresponse to the earthquake which struck Luzon island ofthe Philippines in July 1990. The Philippines' currentadministration system for building regulations, inspectionand related standards, needs to be revised and improved inorder to prevent a repetition of the great catastrophe. Torespond to this necessity and introduce advanced buildingtechnologies into the reconstruction process in the Phil-ippines, UNCRD is planning to organize a training programmeconsisting of two courses: an eight-week course in Japanand a one-week course in the Philippines which will beorganized for broader dissemination of knowledge on thesubject. The trainees of the first course will be senior-levelengineers, in principle, and they will act as the trainers inthe second course, planned mainly for administrators.

E. Conclusions

1. Priorities of UNCRD's Activity for DisasterReduction

Upon examination of the above-mentioned past ex-periences and future plans, it may be clearly stated that theactivities of UNCRD have been and will be based on thepriorities of:

(a) Exchanging knowledge and experiences among re-gions suffering from similar types of disasters:

Water-related disasters are a common subject tobe discussed among most countries of the world,particularly in Asia with its dense population inflood-prone areas.

214Part Four: Activities of international agencies

in natural disaster reduction

- A number of areas in the world need to sharetheir local experiences with each other regard-ing major earthquakes; information exchangewithin a region is also significantly important,such as in the Latin American region.

(b) Encouraging undertaking of research work on thevulnerability of metropolitan areas to major disasters:

- Risk of earthquake damage in so-called "mega-cities" should be highlighted.

- Special attention should be given to the relationbetween urban area expansion and increase invulnerability;

(c) Supporting studies to clarify the socio-economic ef-fects of major disasters in various types of regions:

A relevant model of socio-economic impactsthat can be used in assessing how a disastermight hamper economic development to providethe required information on ranking of disaster-prone areas;

- Knowledge about the structure of damage devel-opment will facilitate finding a way for damagecontrol, and prevent a domino effect, wherebydamage leads to even further damage indirectly.

(d) Assisting the establishment/enforcement of an ad-ministrative and institutional system for disastermanagement:

A disaster-prone country/municipality shall havespecific law/standards to assure the effectiveresponse of administrative organizations to asudden disaster:

Appropriate criteria for structural design anddisaster preparedness shall be provided accord-

ing to seismic maps indicating macro/micro zo-nation;

- Existing building/structural codes shall be re-viewed and revised on the basis of disaster ex-periences in the entire world.

2. International Cooperation in the Decade

The objective of the IDNDR, recognized as achiev-ing a less hazardous world, requires international cooperationin various ways. Among them, the following are of greatimportance:

(a) To ensure an international network for disaster infor-mation by establishing research organizations andincreasing research functions in developing coun-tries, and encouraging the international exchange ofhuman resources and experiences;

(b) To establish a disaster observation and early warningsystem at the international level, in particular forcyclones and typhoons;

(c) To realize an international management system formajor rivers flowing through two or more countriesin order to mitigate flood disaster and promote thedevelopment of the areas concerned.

(d) To formulate an international standard for identify-ing areas vulnerable to earthquakes and a universalcode and criteria for structural design in those areas.

In recognition of these needs, through an integratedapproach towards disaster management and regional de-velopment, UNCRD wishes to contribute to the IDNDR byproviding opportunities for information exchange at thenational, regional, and international levels, assisting inrelated research work for less developed countries, andformulating training programmes for key persons in therelated activities of those countries.

VI. IDNDR promotion in Japan and the results of International Conference 1990 Japan 215

VI. IDNDR PROMOTION IN JAPAN AND THE RESULTS OFINTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 1990 JAPAN

by Motasuke Tanaka1 and Tadashi Itoh2

A. History of natural disaster reduction in Japan

Japan has been hit by various disasters in the past,typhoons, heavy rainfall, snowfall, earthquakes, volcaniceruptions and tsunamis, and has lost numerous lives andsustained great losses to property. As a result of thosebitter experiences, Japan has developed its disaster preventionmeasures. In the last 30 years, Japan has exerted mucheffort in disaster reduction, and in recent years the totalnumber of deaths and missing persons due to disasters hasbeen less than 100 per year. Japan has achieved greatsuccess compared to the past decades (figure XI).

It is through these experiences and successes indisaster prevention and reduction that Japan came to believethat natural disaster prevention or reduction can be achievedby taking appropriate preventive measures and also recognizedthe importance of international cooperation for naturaldisaster reduction. So when the idea of the IDNDR wasfirst proposed, Japan firmly supported it.

B. IDNDR promotion system in Japan

When the idea of IDNDR was first proposed inJapan, the scientists engaged in natural disaster researchstrongly supported it, and the Japanese Government alsorecognized its significance, and in 1987 the National LandAgency became the centre of promotion of the idea in theGovernment.

In May 1989, the Government headquarters for theIDNDR was formed in the National Land Agency byCabinet decision, with the Prime Minister as its President.The purpose of setting up the headquarters was to ensureclose coordination between the related governmental or-ganizations regarding the IDNDR, and also for compre-hensive and effective promotion of the Decade. Theheadquarters would formulate, coordinate and implementthe programme of governmental activities to be under-taken within the framework of the Decade. A new organi-zation, the IDNDR Promotion Office, was established in

the Disaster Prevention Bureau to function as the secre-tariat for the headquarters. That office is in charge ofplanning and coordinating the promotion activities andalso acts as the information centre for local governmentsand the private sector.

In November 1989, the headquarters declared "TheBasic Promotion Policy for the IDNDR" (see appendix).According to this Basic Policy, the promotion activitieswere divided into three major fields, namely: internationalcooperation and exchanges; promotion of disaster preven-tion measures in Japan; and promotion, popularization andpublic relations activities. Based on this policy, variousprojects for the IDNDR in the national Government wereinitiated. Local governments and other public organiza-tions were also called upon to participate in the Governmentactivities.

On the other hand, in August 1990 the members ofthe Japan Science Council called on the academic andindustrial sectors, the Japan Red Cross Society and themass media to join in the promotion of the Decade, and theJapan National Committee for the IDNDR was formed.The Government headquarters and the National Commit-tee are now working together to promote various projects.

C. IDNDR promotion activities in Japan

The publicity for the Decade had already started in1989. Using the mass media such as television, radio,newspapers and magazines and also by publishing pam-phlets and posters, the public was informed about theIDNDR and was madeaware of the importance of internationalcooperation for disaster reduction. Also efforts have beenmade to raise public awareness towards natural disasterreduction and the public disaster preparedness. The PrimeMinister called the attention of the public to the Decade inhis New Year's Messages of January 1990 and January1991. Promotion slogan contests for the IDNDR havebeen organized, and IDNDR commemorative postage stampswere issued. An IDNDR commemoration ceremony washeld on 27 September 1990.

Counsellor to the Disaster Prevention Bureau, National Land Agency, Government of Japan, Tokyo 100, Japan.3 Senior Planning Officer, IDNDR Promotion Office, Disaster Prevention Bureau.

216Part Four: Activities of international agencies

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VI. IDNDR promotion in Japan and the results of International Conference 1990 Japan 217

For promotion of disaster prevention measures inJapan, previous prevention, preparedness and emergencyrelief measures are being reinforced. Also some new tasksare being identified as disaster prevention measures inJapan. The involvement of private companies in disasterprevention activities and the active involvement of volunteersin disaster preparedness and relief activities are someexamples.

As for international cooperation and exchange, newprogrammes are being initiated. It is thought that it isimportant to transfer Japan's organizational and technicalknow-how experiences to those countries facing difficul-ties coping with natural disasters. Seminars have beenorganized in order to introduce the organizational arrange-ments and other technical know-how to the developingcountries and to assist in training of experts in thesecountries. A Seminar on Administration for Disaster Pre-vention was recently organized by the National Land Agencyand JICA for this purpose. Also video-films, displaypanels and other teaching aids for disaster preventioneducation in Japan and in developing countries are beingprepared. This material will be available by mid-1991.Also important are exchange of experiences and knowl-edge among the different countries and raising awarenessamong policy makers of the necessity of disaster preven-tion. Holding international conferences and symposiumsare some of the effective measures for this purpose.

D. Results of "IDNDR International Conference 1990Japan"

From 27 September to 3 October 1990, the "IDNDRInternational Conference 1990 Japan" was jointly organ-ized by the Japanese Government Headquarters, the JapanNational Committee for the IDNDR, the City of Yokohama,Kagoshima Prefecture and the United Nations Centre forRegional Development (UNCRD).

Senior level policy planners, administrators and re-searchers, leaders of non-governmental organizations from43 countries who are engaged in disaster prevention andmanagement and regional development planning, and alsorepresentatives of 16 international organizations, includ-ing United Nations agencies who are engaged in disasterprevention and management, participated in that confer-ence.

Various topics on natural disaster reduction and in-ternational cooperation were discussed. And through thesediscussions some common basic viewpoints to promotethe Decade were identified and 15 major tasks that shouldbe tackled in the Decade activities were outlined.

E. Future plans for the promotion of the Decade

Japan is now making plans for the next fiscal year,and is planning for future promotion activities as well. Thecommon basic viewpoints and the 15 major tasks identi-fied will be the basis for the action programmes.

It is very important to recognize that there are manydifferences regarding the occurrence of natural disastersand the social aspects of disaster among vulnerable coun-tries. Therefore in the coming fiscal year, it is planned toundertake a basic field survey to determine which part ofJapan's disaster prevention and preparedness programmecan be easily applicable to some disaster-prone countries.Japan is also ready to send experts upon request. It isplanned to hold an international symposium on earthquakedisaster prevention and preparedness.

The Japanese Government, with the assistance ofrelevant organizations, and with an understanding of re-gional differences, will attempt to transfer the technologyand administrative knowledge on natural disaster reductionto disaster-prone countries through international cooperationand thus contribute to natural disaster reduction in theworld.

218Part Four: Activities of international agencies

in natural disaster reduction

Appendix. The Basic Policy for promoting activities for the International Decade forNatural Disaster Reduction in Japan

IDNDR Government Headquarters Decision, Govern-ment of Japan

Paying due respect to the United Nations GeneralAssembly Resolution on the International Decade for NaturalDisaster Reduction (IDNDR), and bearing in mind thevarious circumstances existing in Japan, the activities forthe IDNDR shall be promoted in accordance with thefollowing basic policy:

A. Basic viewpoints with regard to the promotion ofthe IDNDR

The United Nations, at its 42nd General Assembly,adopted the resolution on the IDNDR to be launched in1990, with a view to reducing through concerted internationalactions the adverse effects of natural disasters, such as lossof life, property damage, and social and economic disrup-tion, worldwide, especially in developing countries.

With regard to this objective of the Decade andtaking into account the present conditions of Japan's disas-ter countermeasures as well as international cooperationfor disaster prevention, various activities for the IDNDRshall be promoted in accordance with the following basicviewpoints:

(a) Natural disasters are seriously affecting the world,especially in developing countries. On the other handscientific and technological progress is enabling us toprevent or mitigate adverse effects of natural disasters.These are the recognized in the background of the UnitedNations resolution. Therefore, Japan's IDNDR Govern-ment Headquarters shall further promote international co-operation for the reduction of damage caused by naturaldisasters throughout the world, especially in developingcountries, and raise awareness and deepen understandingof our people towards these issues, and thus consolidatethe basis for the support of the promotion of internationalcooperation in the future.

(b) Japan is situated in a land condition vulnerableto natural disasters, meteorologically, topographically andgeologically, and numerous lives and properties have beenlost every year by natural disasters. In recent years, thenumber of people lost and missing by natural disasters hasbeen gradually decreasing, but on the other hand, theeffects of disasters are becoming more complex and diver-sified due to changes in economic and social circum-

stances, such as urbanization and improved communica-tions. Various disaster countermeasures shall be promotedin order to conserve the national land and protect the livesand properties of the people from such disasters.

B. Promotion activities for the IDNDR

Based on the above-mentioned basic viewpoints, thefollowing measures shall be vigorously carried out:

1. Promotion of international cooperationand exchanges

The IDNDR Government Headquarters shall posi-tively participate in and cooperate with various projectsplanned by the United Nations system and other organiza-tions regarding the IDNDR. At the same time, the IDNDRGovernment headquarters shall, with a view to contribut-ing to reduction of damage caused by natural disasters,especially in developing countries, engage in the promo-tion of international cooperation and exchange activitiesconcerning disaster reduction, under long term prospects,mainly in following areas:

(a) Assistance for the improvement and diffusion ofscience and technology related to natural disaster reduc-tion, training of personnel, and improvement of the coun-ter-disaster systems, through technical cooperation in suchareas as training activities, joint research, dispatch ofexperts, and supply of equipment;

(b) Assistance to projects conducive to the reduc-tion of natural disasters;

(c) Promotion of the transfer of Japan's experienceand knowledge, and mutual exchanges of experiences andknowledge of each country holding international confer-ences, etc.

(d) Enhancement of international emergency reliefassistance.

2. Promotion of disaster countermeasures in Japan

In order to ensure that all the people will be able tolive safely, disaster countermeasures shall be promotedmainly in the following fields of activities:

(a) Promotion of scientific and technological re-search in disaster prevention;

VI. IDNDR promotion in Japan and the results of International Conference 1990 Japan 219

(b) Enlargement and reinforcement of disaster pre-vention systems, and development and improvement ofdisaster prevention facilities and equipment;

(c) Promotion of various projects for national landconservation;

(d) Proper guidance of land use for a safe environ-ment, and promotion of various measures towards realiza-tion of multipolar decentralized national land structure; and

(e) Strengthening of disaster emergency and recov-ery measures.

3. Promotion of popularization and publicrelations activities

In addition to the activities stated above, in accord-ance with the objectives of the IDNDR to disseminate the

knowledge on disaster prevention and to raise the publicawareness towards disaster prevention, various publicrelations activities such as exhibitions and lectures shallbe implemented, commemoration ceremonies and issu-ance of commemorative stamps shall be promoted.

C. Methods to promote activities for the IDNDR

Comprehensive and effective promotion of the above-mentioned activities shall be achieved through a closecollaboration among all relevant administrative organs.In order to widely acquaint the public with the purpose ofthis movement, as well as to raise nation-wide interest, itis necessary to promote activities with close collaborationbetween governmental organs, local governments andprivate organizations. It is expected that those organs andorganizations will vigorously implement activities in ac-cordance with the objectives of the IDNDR.

220Part Four; Activities of international agencies

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VII. THE ROLE OF ESCAP IN NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTIONIN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

A. Introduction

The Economic and Social Commission for Asia andthe Pacific (originally the Economic Commission for Asiaand the Far East) was founded in 1947 as the regional armof the United Nations Economic and Social Council cover-ing Asia and the Pacific. The membership currently ismore than 40 countries and territories in an area stretchingfrom the Islamic Republic of Iran in the west to the CookIslands in the Pacific Ocean in the east. The population ofthe region is about 3 billion, with 45 million more beingadded every year.

Many of the Asian and Pacific developing countriesare situated in the world's hazard belts of earthquakes,windstorms, tidal waves, floods and drought.

The climate, topography, geology and demographywithin the Asian and Pacific region vary considerable, asdo the different problems, including natural disasters, facedin various parts of the region. The major natural disastersfaced periodically by the peoples of the ESCAP region arelargely due to climatic and seismic factors. Heavy precipi-tation and resulting floods, storm surges and earthquakesare the natural disasters which cause the most destructionof human lives and property, and in some countries affectthe national economy significantly. In addition, tsunamis,landslides and volcanic eruptions are known to have af-fected certain areas of the region in varying degrees atdifferent times. By some estimates, 85 per cent of the morethan 4 million deaths from sudden natural disasters in theworld in the period 1900-1990 occurred in Asia and thesouth-west Pacific. For the same period, windstorms andfloods worldwide accounted for almost 50 per cent of thenearly SUS100 billion total damage.

The frequency and intensity of adverse natural phe-nomena and the extensiveness and severity of the damagethey cause seem to be increasing over time. Disastrousnatural events struck the region again in 1988, 1989 and1990 even before the full consequences of the adverseweather effects on the economies of the region in 1987could be fully overcome. In that year, floods and droughthad affected the agricultural production of virtually thewhole developing ESCAP region. Similar events occurredin 1988, in 1989 and in 1990. In addition there were severecyclones and storm surges and strong earthquakes in anumber of countries, causing a significant loss of lives anddamage to property.

Losses due to natural disasters deprive developingcountries of resources with could otherwise be used foreconomic and social development, thus further impedingtheir development process.

In recognition of the importance of this universalissue, the United Nations General Assembly, in its resolu-tion 42/169 of 11 December 1987, designated the 1990s asthe International Decade on Natural Disaster Reduction,during which the international community, under the aus-pices of the United Nations, would pay special attention tofostering international cooperation in the field of naturaldisaster reduction. The resolution, moreover, called on theregional commissions to play an active role in implemen-tation of Decade activities. Therefore the Economic andSocial Commission for Asia and the Pacific at its forty-fifth session, adopted resolution 45/5 on fulfilling theobjectives of the Decade, and consequently ESCAP hasformed a multidivisional multisectoral task force for theDecade to promote and support cooperative efforts forattaining the objectives of the Decade. The task force hasheld several sessions since its formation and has reviewedand coordinated the work of the secretariat on naturaldisaster reduction.

B. Recent Activities of ESCAP on NaturalDisaster Reduction

1. Reduction of water-related disasters

The Commission, since its ECAFE days, through itsBureau of Flood Control and Water Resources Develop-ment of the time, which was subsequently incorporatedinto the Natural Resources Division as the Water Re-sources Section, continues to be involved in promoting andenhancing cooperative efforts in the Asia and Pacific regionto mitigate damage from typhoons/cyclones, floods anddroughts. In addition, support has consistently been pro-vided to the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee and theWMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones, two regionalintergovernmental bodies, since their inception.

The past Medium-Term Plan of work of the WaterResources Section of ESCAP (1984-1989) included a pro-gramme element on "Mitigation of damage from cyclones,floods and drought" which has continued during the cur-rent Medium Term Plan period.

VII. The role of ESCAP in natural disaster reduction in Asia and the Pacific 221

Aiming at reduction of flooding and rational devel-opment and utilization of land and water resources, amanual and guidelines for flood risk analysis and mappingwas prepared and finalized in an expert group meeting in1988. The manual and guidelines have been published andwidely distributed.

ESCAP has recently prepared a study on problemscaused by natural disasters in selected least developedcountries and developing island countries of the region,and long-term effective measures to mitigate the effects ofdisasters was published as part of the Water ResourcesSeries. Work on phase I of the urban flood loss preventionproject was completed by fielding missions to eight majorcities in the region and holding a workshop. The proceed-ings of the project are being published as part of the WaterResources Series.

A manual and guidelines for comprehensive floodloss prevention, also closely related to development andutilization of natural resources, has been finalized and iscurrently under publication. Advisory missions and semi-nars are being organized in concerned member countries inorder to disseminate the techniques presented in the manualand guidelines.

A project entitled "Promotion of measures for reduc-tion of water-related disasters in Asia and the Pacificthrough research, training and advisory services-Phase I"was included in the programme of work related to waterresources for the biennium 1990-1991. In addition to thepresent Symposium, another project on "Assessment ofcurrent preparedness programmes, forecasting systems andoperational methods for water-related natural disaster re-duction in the ESCAP region" is scheduled to be held inBangkok from 29 April to 3 May 1991. Advisory missionswill be sent to countries wishing to introduce or enhancethe preparedness programmes, based on the recommenda-tions of the workshop.

Future activities in water-related natural disaster re-duction include a proposed workshop to develop guide-lines for the application of cyclonic storm hydrology innatural disaster reduction in the region.

In the draft Work Programme of the Water Re-sources Section for the 1992-1993 biennium, the subject ofnatural disaster reduction was assigned the highest prior-ity. Starting in 1992, it is proposed that two new projectsbe introduced. The first involves integrated river systemdevelopment and management, with reference to compre-hensive flood loss prevention and management. The sec-ond relates to storm surge risk mapping and analysis.

The future activities of ESCAP, within the context ofthe International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction,

are planned to include provision of assistance to memberStates in various aspects of reduction of water-relatednatural disasters.

2. Reduction of drought impacts

Since 1984 the Agriculture and Rural DevelopmentDivision of ESCAP has been executing the agro-climaticassessment programme in eight developing ESCAP membercountries. The project was designed to develop nationalcapabilities to predict crop failures/food shortages causedby the impact of drought. Later, in 1989 remote sensingtechnology had been incorporated into the crop assessmentsystems. This new phase of the programme, the satellitecrop monitoring project, has been implemented initially inIndonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand on apilot basis.

A Regional Evaluation Seminar on Satellite CropMonitoring was held at Bangkok in November 1990 toassess the usefulness and efficacy of the satellite cropmonitoring project. The Seminar recommended that theproject should be continued in the future and the upcomingphase, if funding could be obtained (estimated US$1.45million), would include Bangladesh, China, Nepal, SriLanka and Viet Nam which have expressed an interest injoining the project.

3. Reduction of geologic disasters

The ESCAP Mineral Resources Section has beeninvolved in various disaster reduction activities throughthe programme entitled "Geology for Urban Development",since 1985. Studies were carried out in a number of citiesaffected by seismic risk, subsidence, groundwater con-tamination, highly compressive soils and karst collapse.There meetings were organized within the urban geologyprogramme: (a) Expert Working Group meeting cumWorkshop on the Urban Geology of Coastal Areas (Shanghai,October 1987); (b) Seminar on Geological Mapping in theUrban Environment (Bangkok, October 1986); and (c)Meeting on Quaternary Geosciences and Human Survival(Bangkok, November 1988, in cooperation withUNESCO).

ESCAP activities have included a systematic surveyof the urban geology of more than 77 areas in 20 countriesover the period 1987 to 1990. These studies have beenpublished in an Atlas of Urban Geology series, the mostrecent volume of which was on Geology for Land-UsePlanning in Asia issued in late 1990. These studies notedthat large cities in Asia have spread into areas in whichgeologic conditions are unsuitable for various land uses.As a result of the ESCAP programme, planners and geolo-gists have worked together to develop a series of thematic

222Part Four: Activities of international agencies

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maps that would be useful for land-use planning. Thesemaps show areas affected by both man-made and naturalhazards.

Other activities included the provision of in-housetraining in urban geology and the mapping of large cities ina number of countries. More recently, these studies havefocused on mitigation of seismic risk in Indonesia, subsid-ence in Hanoi, Viet Nam, and assessment of earthquakedamage resulting from the 16 July 1990 earthquake in thePhilippines. A scries of meetings have also reviewed theimpact of man on Quaternary environments and wereespecially concerned with the mapping and correlation ofQuaternary stratigraphy in the region. These latter activitiesare jointly orgainzed by ESCAP and UNESCO as part ofInternational Geological Correlation Programme Project296, Quaternary geology of the Asia/Pacific region. ESCAParranged a Seminar on Geology and Land-Use Planning, inKuching, Malaysia and two workshops on QuaternaryGeology of the Asia-Pacific region in Malaysia and Thailandin 1989 and 1990 respectively. A Course on Assessmentand Evaluation of Construction Materials for Urban De-velopment was orgainzed in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in1990.

ESCAP continues to provide assistance to the MemberStates on mitigation of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions,landslides as well as various other types of natural disas-Lers.

The ESCAP Human Settlement Unit undertookresearchon disaster mitigation policy measures and published a"Study on human settlement planning in disaster-proneareas with focus on management of marginal settlements"in 1987. The study reviewed current policies and practicesfor disaster mitigation by member countries, in particular,through land-use planning, building design and codes andtraining programmes.

In future, the Unit will organize seminar/workshopsto exchange the experiences and knowledge on disastermitigation measures.

4. Natural disaster monitoring and warning

The ESCAP/UNDP Regional Remote Sensing Pro-gramme, in order to promote operational uses of remotesensing and Global Information Systems (GIS) in naturaldisaster reduction, for better development and utilization

of land and water resources, organized a workshop on theapplication of remote sensing to flood plain mapping andmonitoring in Dhaka, Bangladesh in December 1989.

A pilot project on flood mapping and flood monitor-ing using remote sensing and GIS technologies has beencompleted jointly by Bangladesh and Chinese experts throughthe TCDC arrangements under the co-ordination of theESCAP/UNDP RRSP. A methodology for flood plainmapping and monitoring using integrated remote sensingand GIS technologies has been developed and will betested in Bangladesh in 1991.

In cooperation with the Outer Space Affairs Divi-sion of the United Nations and the Government of China,the Regional Remote Sensing Programme is also Organiz-ing a workshop on application of space techniques tocombat natural disasters, to be held in September 1991.The seminar will emphasize operational methodology fordisaster monitoring and forecasting through remote sens-ing and GIS technologies.

In its next phase from 1992 to 1996, the RegionalRemote Sensing Programme will lay special emphasis onpromotion of the member countries's capabilities in usingthe GIS technology as well as microwave technology, suchas synthetic aperture side-looking radar and high resolu-tion satellite data for disaster monitoring and assessment.Priority will be given to the least developed countries totransfer low-cost, microcomputer-based image processingand GIS technologies for operational uses in disaster man-agement.

The Environment Section of ESCAP organized aMinisterial-Level Conference on Environment and Devel-opment in Asia and the Pacific from 10 to 16 October 1990at Bangkok. Regional co-operation in the disaster warningmeasures and in the field of coastal area resources devel-opment and management was on the agenda of the Confer-ence, which identified the directions of technology trans-fer and recommended the establishment of an internationalcentre on early detection and warning of approachingcyclones. The Ministerial Declaration also welcomed theestablishment of institutes/centres for research, training,and policy formulation related environment and develop-ment, activities with a view to promoting exchange ofinformation, technical assistance and regional co-opera-tion. In fulfilling the objectives of such centres, ESCAPshould play an important role.

VIII. Impact of natural disasters on the least developed and islandcountries of the ESCAP region 223

Vin. IMPACT OF NATURAL DISASTERS ON THE LEAST DEVELOPED ANDISLAND COUNTRIES OF THE ESCAP REGION

A. Problems

Natural environment is the most critical factor in thelife and livelihood of the people in developing countries ingeneral and the least development countries, in particular.It is their most important resource and endowment. Evenat the best of times, the people in the least developedcountries located in the Himalayan region and in the smallislands and atolls, eke out livelihood from highly fragilesoils and vegetation. The ecological systems in leastdeveloped countries—the rich diversity of plants, animalsand bird life, the swamps, the marshes, the little streams—are fast vanishing. Growth of population has doubled inthe last three decades. Traditional practices cannot copewith new emerging situations. Rains, droughts and floodshave become an established pattern.

The forest cover is being depleted at a fast pace; thesoil is being degraded from over-cultivation and over-grazing, and water is getting scarcer than ever before.Agricultural productivity is therefore seriously threatened.The livestock industry has declined due to degradation ofpastoral fields in these countries.

Over 80 per cent of the energy supply of the peopleis met by fuelwood which is obtained primarily from theforests and jungles around their villages and nearby hills.Now in almost all these countries, fuelwood has becomescarce. The fragile soils especially of the upper Himalayasare being washed away down the rivers. Global warming,the depletion of the ozone layer, the greenhouse effect andindustrial pollution are a more immediate and urgent concernfor these countries.

Almost all the least developed countries are charac-terized by at least one of the following types of geophysicalhandicap: aridity, mountainous topography or atoll structure.The mountainous least developed countries of Asia, namelyAfghanistan, Bhutan and Nepal, face similar obstacles todevelopment. With growing populations making increasingdemands on the environment, there is a massive deforestationgoing on in these areas, and conditions of cultivation aregetting worse, as soil is washed away from the slopes. Thebroken terrain imposes high costs on communication, and

divides the population into small isolated communitieswhich are costly to equip with infrastructure and socialservices.

The scope for the land-based agriculture on smallisland countries in the Pacific region is also extremelylimited, since the natural soil consists of coral sand con-taining more or less no organic matter. Furthermore, thevery small areas of continuous land and the shortage offresh water impose severe limits on the development ofurban concentrations.

Rising demands for food, water, land, fuelwood andother natural resources have further aggravated the precariousenvironmental balance in many of these countries duringthe 1980s. The United Nations Conference on Trade andDevelopment (UNCTAD) has identified the problemswhich have become worse are as follows:'

(1) Depletion of forests. Forests occupy only 21 percent of the land area of least development countries com-pared to the 30 per cent average for developing countries.These forests are being depleted at a rate of 0.6 per cent perannum. In a number of these countries the rate of destruc-tion is much higher, ranging from 2 to 4 per cent a year.

(2) Soil degradation. The loss of vegetative cover,through pressure of population on land, exposes the soil towind and rain.

(3) Water scarcity. Lakes, swamps, rivers and coastalwaters are increasingly polluted, The capacity of freshwater to replenish its supplies is now under threat inseveral least developed and island countries.

(4) Extinction of biological resources and diversity.Wild plants and animals are also a source of food for poorpeople, apart from their scientific and ecological value.

The least developed countries are also increasinglybeing exposed to environmental damages caused mainlyby industrial activities elsewhere. The phenomenon ofglobal warming is of particular concern to many of thesecountries, since the predicted change in climate wouldaggravate the problems which already beset their ecology.

UNCTAD, The Least Developed Countries 1989 Report, Geneva.

224Pan Four: Activities of international agencies

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The effect of diminished rainfall in arid least devel-oped countries is obvious. If rainfall increases in wetterareas, erosion on the deforested slopes of mountainousleast developed countries is likely to be aggravated, as isflooding in the lower reaches of rivers. A rise in the sealevel would also threaten the very existence of least developedatoll countries in the Pacific region, as well as the denselypopulated low lying area of Bangladesh.

The least developed and island developing countriesof the ESCAP region have been adversely affected byvarious environmental phenomena. In Bangladesh, monsoonfloods reportedly destroyed 2 million tons of rice duringthe 1986/87 harvest. The country was again severely hit bya devastating flood in 1988. Apart from the tragic loss oflife and property, crops on about 4 million hectares of landwere destroyed and on a further 3.2 million hectares dam-aged. The total loss of foodgrain output was estimated at2-2.5 million tons, equivalent to 12-15 per cent of thenormal output. About 25 million people were made home-less and several hundred deaths were reported. In addition,the flood inflicted extensive damage to livestock and fisheries,and infrastructure. Hundreds of kilometres of roads andflood embankments and hundreds of schools and forestrybuildings were damaged. The total cost of reconstructionand rehabilitation of physical and social infrastructure wasestimated to be around 4.4 per cent of the country's GDP.As a result, the Government was prompted to declare stateof emergency in the country. Again in early 1989, thecountry suffered from a prolonged drought.2

The rapid pace of development in the 1980s hasexposed the Maldives to new environmental problemssuch as the destruction of reefs through coral mining(leading to increased wave damage to the shore), defor-estation, waste disposal questions, the depletion of watersupplies, and inadequate sanitation (especially on the at-olls). An additional source of concern is the appearance ofa crack in the substructure of Male island.3 Moreover, atidal wave inundated Male and the adjacent islands inApril 1987. It was the first tidal wave in the recent historyof the country, and it destroyed much of the reclaimed landarea on Male Island, and damaged the Male InternationalAirport as well. High waves in subsequent months alsoaffected other islands. According to some environmental-ists, the Maldives and other countries lying close to sealevel are threatened by the rise in its level due to melting ofthe polar ice-cap because of the long-term "greenhouseeffect" of the earth's increasing temperature.

In late August 1988, a severe earthquake struckeastern and central Nepal. Twenty-seven districts of thecountry were affected. Several hundred persons werekilled and many more seriously injured. Private property,cattle and infrastructure, including highways, bridges, schools,and hospitals, suffered considerable damage estimated atNRs 2 000 million. As many as 20 000 homes weredestroyed. Hillside erosion and subsequent mudslides andfloods exacerbated the earthquake impact and increasedthe death toll further.

Many of the Pacific islands lie in the track of hurri-canes, typhoons and cyclones and have been struck repeat-edly in recent years. Vanuatu, for example, sustainedconsiderable damage from cyclones in three consecutiveyears. Of these, cyclone Uma (February 1987) was themost destructive, killing at least several dozen people,leaving thousands homeless, and destroying infrastructureand housing in the central and southern areas of Vanuatuand the capital city, Port Vila. In parts of Tanna Island,farmers lost their subsistence crops. Since the islandeconomy is based on agriculture, the impact of each cyclonewas most extensive and visible on that sector. Copraproduction fell by 80 per cent in the affected areas. Sub-sistence gardens were devastated, depriving households ofvegetables, tubers and fruit.

B. Past experiences and measures

Disaster preparedness has assumed greater impor-tance in least developed and island countries, calling forthe total mobilization of national effort. In this regard,action taken includes the build-up of adequate foodgrainreserves and their stocking in remote areas of the country,the mobilization of the armed forces and civil administra-tion in relief operation, the formation of teams to providebasic medical services, and the involvement of NGOs andsocial organizations in relief operations. At the same time,high priority is being given to forestry conservation andmanagement in a number of the least developed countriesof the region.

The creation of the Natural Disaster PreparednessCouncil in Bangladesh after the devastating flood of 1988is a step towards disaster preparedness. The Governmentannounced measures to strengthen existing programmesfor forestry development and the protection of the environ-ment. Currently only about 10 per cent of the total landarea of the country is covered by forests, compared with 24per cent in 1947. According to an estimate, it is necessary

2 ESCAP, Economic and Social Survey, 1988.3 United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries: Maldives 1990 (UNLDC II/CP.29).

Impact of natural disasters on the least developed and islandcountries of the ESCAP region 225

for the ecological balance of a country to have 25 per centof the total area under forest. The existing 20 pointprogramme gives priority to the protection and preserva-tion of the environment.4

Although soil erosion in Bhutan is not yet a seriousproblem, there is moderate to severe erosion in easternBhutan and in the Punakha-Wangdi area. The resultingland degradation has given rise to loss of productivity. Theeffect of over-grazing is the major cause of erosion, aslarge parts of the country, whether in designated grazingareas or forests, are subject to over-grazing by livestock.Landslides are quite common along roads and irrigationcanals. The existence of shifting cultivation particularly inthe eastern part of Bhutan, illegal encroachment and clearingof forests are among the major problems in the country atpresent.

Programmes of afforestation, social forestry and landterracing have been undertaken in an effort to reduce thedanger of environmental damage that can arise out ofpopulation growth and increase in the number of livestock.Efforts are also being made to find alternatives to shiftingcultivation. Rigorous rules against felling of trees andencroachment on forest land exist. Roughly 20 per cent offorest land has been reserved for parks and sanctuaries toprotect flora and fauna.

However, further efforts will be needed, in areassuch as soil conservation, river training and screening ofprojects for their environmental impact. The Governmenthas established a Coordinating Body to implement theNational Environment Conservation Strategy (NECS). Inthis regard, an "Endowment Fund" of $US 100 million isproposed to be set up with financial assistance from thebilateral and multilateral donors.5

Nepal has initiated plans to address the environmentaland other related problems in a concerted and integratedfashion through the formulation of an Environmental Ac-tion Plan for implementation in the 1990s. The ActionPlan will also assess environmental problems as well asidentify appropriate measures for dealing with them andmonitor their results from time to time.

C. Policy considerations for the 1990s

During the 1980s, least developed countries becamemore aware both of the environmental risks they werefacing and of the economic and social benefits of environ-mental protection and sound policies for improving the

natural environment. Environmental aspects are increas-ingly being reflected in national development plans, althoughin view of the costs involved, specific programmes andmeasures have been slow to emerge. These developmentsneed to be strengthened in the 1990s to protecfihe environmentfrom further decline/in the decade ahead.

The protection and improvement of the natural envi-ronment will require several categories of measures: edu-cation and mobilization of the entire population, in bothrural and urban areas, aimed at enhancing awareness of theeconomic benefits of environmental protection; economicincentives to motivate better environmental management,and higher efficiency of energy use; linking programmesof social development, including poverty alleviation andparticipation of economically disadvantaged groups, toprogrammes of environmental improvement and manage-ment; and programmes aimed at both preserving the envi-ronment and meeting the specific concerns of women, suchas energy-efficient technologies for cooking.

To this end, there is a need to build up least devel-oped countries' capacities to identify environmental problems,assess mutual links between development and environ-mental trends and prepare national environment manage-ment plans. The latter should aim at providing sustainablesolutions to the specific ecological problems faced by leastdeveloped countries at the national and/or regional level.Furthermore, in close collaboration with relevant interna-tional institutions and bilateral and multilateral donors, theleast developed countries should strengthen their earlywarning and forecasting mechanisms.

As for mitigating the effects of natural disasters, theleast developed countries should improve their capacity toidentify the most probable future disaster scenarios, toestablish appropriate protective measures and contingencyplans, and to ensure that local community leaders and thepopulation in general know how and when to apply thesemeasures. While disaster mitigation activities should beintegrated into new development projects from their incep-tion, disaster assistance should be designed to help bringabout development activities in affected areas, rather thanmerely to restore the status quo ante.

Natural disaster has now become an issue of globalconcern. Over the past two decades, natural disasters haveclaimed about 3 million lives globally, and adverselyaffected the lives of 800 million people. Immediate dam-age has been estimated to exceed $23 billion. In many ofthe above instances the natural disasters are thought to

4 (EIU) Country Report No. 3. 1990 (Bangladesh), p.16.5 United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries: Bhutan 1990 (UNCLDC II/CP. 20), p. 25.

226Part Four: Activities of international agencies

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have a common cause: environmental degradation includ-ing deforestation and the so-called "greenhouse" effect,caused by the long-term rise in the earth's average tem-perature due to large-scale burning of fossil fuels anddamage to the ozone layers of the stratosphere.

The United Nations General Assembly in its resolu-tion 42/169 has designated the 1990s as the InternationalDecade for Natural Disaster Reduction with the objectiveof improving the capacity of each country to mitigate theeffects of natural disasters, paying special attention to:assisting developing countries in the establishment of earlywarning systems; fostering scientific and engineering re-search aimed at closing critical gaps in knowledge, in orderto reduce loss to life and property; and promoting pro-grammes of technical assistance and technology transfer,demonstration projects, and education and training, tailoredto specific hazards and locations.

In pursuance of the United Nations General Assem-bly Resolution 42/177 of 11 December 1990, the SecondUnited Nations Conference on Least Developed Countrieswas convened in Paris in September 1990. The Conferencereviewed the socio-economic situations in the least developedcountries in the 1980s and adopted a comprehensive Pro-gramme of Action for the Least Developed Countries forthe 1990s. Recognizing that there exists a close linkagebetween poverty and environmental degradation, theConference recommended that these twin problems shouldbe tackled simultaneously to provide a basis for long-termsustained growth and development to enhance the capacityof the least development countries to protect the environ-ment. The Programme contains, inter alia, measures andrecommendations on environment, and disaster mitigation,preparedness and prevention for implementation at bothnational and international levels. Relevant paragraphs ofthe text of the Programme of Action are included in theappendix.

VOX Impact of natural disasters on the least developed and islandcountries of the ESCAP region 227

Appendix. Environment and disaster mitigation, preparedness and prevention1

1. Environment and development in the leastdeveloped countries

While the current threats to the global environmentare of common concern to all countries, the LDCs' vulner-ability is further exacerbated by a specific set of environ-mental problems such as soil degradation and erosion,drought and desertification, which impair prospects fortheir development. These environmental problems areclosely linked to a number of complex and interrelatedfactors: these include poverty, underdevelopment, poverty-linked population pressure placing further demands on thenatural resource base in a number of LDCs, a narrowtechnological base, geographical disadvantages, unregu-lated industrial operations, as well as the illegal transboundarydumping of hazardous waste and radioactive waste, Thetwin problems of poverty and environmental degradationhave to be tackled simultaneously to provide a basis forlong-term sustained growth and sustainable development,which are essential and will enhance the capacity of LDCsto protect the environment. One of the main endeavours byLDCs should be to achieve an optimum balance betweenhuman demands and the natural resource base for futuregenerations as well as for the present generation and at thesame time to maximize the ability of the environment tomeet these demands on a sustainable basis. To achievethese objectives, however, due attention needs to be givento these problems in domestic policy-making and addi-tional resources, both in terms of concessional finance andaccess to environmentally sound technology, should bechannelled to LDCs in accordance with General Assemblyresolution 44/228 to assist in avoiding further degradationof the local eco-systems, in overcoming environmentalproblems crucial for development, in combating the nega-tive impact of global environmental problems, and inimplementing the measures listed in the following twoparagraphs.

An integrated and multi-disciplinary approach inthis regard should cover, inter alia: (i) incentives to moti-vate better environmental management and to ensure effi-ciency of energy use, as well as to discourage environmen-tal degradation; (ii) education of the local communities inboth urban and rural areas, aimed at enhancing awarenessof the economic and social benefits of environmental

protection; (iii) developing human resources to deal withenvironmental problems, as an important component ofcapacity-building in the LDCs; (iv) addressing the inter-twined problems of poverty eradication and improvementand management of the environment in an integrated way;(v) facilitating the access to and the transfer of environ-mentally sound technology to the least developed coun-tries; and (vi) developing new techniques to rationalize theuse of traditional energy resources, and developing low-cost alternative fuel sources, in particular new and renew-able sources, which could provide an alternative to the useof fuelwood, thus alleviating pressure on the environment.

Special consideration should be given to LDCs whichare prone to drought and desertification. Improved naturalresources management and productivity increases in agri-culture and livestock on a sustainable ecologically soundbasis are needed in order to protect the productive basis ofthese countries.

There is a need to strengthen human, institutionaland technological capacities of LDCs to identify environ-mental problems, assess the relationship between develop-ment and environment trends and prepare national envi-ronmental management plans for conservation and protec-tion strategies. Women should be involved in these plans,especially in forest and land management programmes.They should also be involved in the choice and dissemina-tion of appropriate technologies which would facilitatetheir household and productive activities while respectingthe rhythm of renewal of the natural resource base. Na-tional early-warning and forecasting mechanisms, includedas part of a wider regional effort, should be strengthened.Women should be associated with the establishment ofwarning systems and follow-up on natural calamities, aswell as of programmes aimed at reducing post-harvestlosses and food wastage. The United Nations organiza-tions, including UNEP, WMO, and FAO should give prior-ity attention to the LDCs in their programmes and mecha-nisms relating to the environment.

The United Nations Conference on the Environmentand Development, scheduled for 1992, should address, inaccordance with its mandate, the environmental and devel-opmental problems of the least developed countries. The

The Programme of Action for the Least Developed Countries for the 1990s adopted by the Second United Nations Conference on LeastDeveloped Countries, held in Paris from 3 to 14 September 1990.

228Pan Four: Activities of international agencies

in natural disaster reduction

Conference should provide for measures to enable the leastdeveloped countries to pursue their efforts to incorporatethe environmental dimension into their development ob-jectives and policies. Moreover, the Conference should bean opportunity to renew the international community'scommitment to support, technically and financially, majorprojects designed to avoid the recurrence of natural disas-ters due to environmental degradation.

Appropriate and adequate international support isalso needed to explore possibilities to protect the leastdeveloped countries against the effects of new environ-mentally negative phenomena, such as climate change,marine pollution and the transboundary movement of wastes.

2, Disaster mitigation, preparedness and prevention

Natural and man-made disasters continue to causeheavy losses of human lives and property, with particularlysevere and lasting impact on the national economies of theleast developed countries. Furthermore, the magnitude offuture losses will inevitably increase as population pres-sure leads to the occupation of even more vulnerable areas.Considerable knowledge exists of techniques for minimiz-ing the impact of disasters that have not yet been systemi-cally applied in the majority of the least developed coun-tries. Each country will need assistance to increase orimprove its capacity to identify scenarios, to establishappropriate protective measures and contingency plans,and to ensure that local community leaders and the popu-lation in general know how and when to apply these

measures. LDCs would continue to undertake measureswithin their available capacity and with appropriate inter-national cooperation: (i) to alleviate and mitigate the con-sequences of such disasters; (ii) to limit the extent of theirdamage; and (iii) to undertake feasible preventive measures.Activities in this regard should be integrated into newdevelopment projects.

It would be necessary for LDCs to continue efforts tostimulate among their population in general a clear percep-tion of the benefits of disaster preparedness and preven-tion. Pilot projects to promote a coherent approach todisaster preparedness, mitigation and prevention should beinitiated in the disaster-prone least developed countries, inline with the General Assembly guidelines on the InternationalDecade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), withadequate international support. Special attention shouldbe given to women and children because of their vulner-ability during disasters. LDCs should receive priorityattention in the activities of the IDNDR. In particular, theinternational community will provide support to Bangladesh,as well as to the project for the establishment of an envi-ronment-surveillance mechanism in the Sahara and theSahel, aimed at the control of desertification in sub-Saha-ran African.

Several of the LDCs are or have been affected byrefugee and migration problems. In view of the adverseimpact of the presence of refugees and displaced personson the socio-economic infrastructure and developmentprocess, the international community and competent inter-national organizations should support the LDCs' efforts infacing these problems.

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