Disaster Management

Thought of the Day“KUN FAYAKUN” ن�ْ ك�ُ ون�ُ كُ َ ي� َ ف�

is an Arabic phrase in QuranIt means The Lord says “Be, and it is”

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TermsCapacity• A combination of all the strengths and resources

available within a community, society or organization that can reduce the level of risk, or the effects of a disaster.

Disaster• A serious disruption of the functioning of a

community or society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources. It results from the combination of hazards, conditions of vulnerability and insufficient capacity to reduce the potential negative consequences of risk.

Disaster risk management (DRM)• The comprehensive approach to reduce the adverse

impacts of a disaster. DRM encompasses all actions taken before, during, and after the disasters. It includes activities on mitigation, preparedness, emergency response, recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction.


TermsDisaster risk reduction (DRR)/disaster reduction• The measures aimed to minimize vulnerabilities and disaster

risks throughout a society, to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development.

Early warning• The provision of timely and effective information, through

identified institutions, to communities and individuals so that they can take action to reduce their risks and prepare for effective response.

Emergency• An event, usually sudden, that puts at risk the life or well

being of at least one person.Forecast• Estimate of the occurrence of a future event (UNESCO, WMO).

This term is used with different meanings in different disciplines.


TermsMeteorological disaster• Disasters resulting from meteorological phenomena, such as floods,

cyclones, droughts, glacial lake outbursts, landslides due to heavy rain and avalanches.

Risk assessment/analysis• A methodology to determine the nature and extent of risk by

analyzing potential hazards and evaluating existing vulnerability that could pose a potential threat to people, property, livelihoods and the environment.

Sustainable development• Development that meets the needs of the present without

compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

Vulnerability• The conditions determined by physical, social, economic and

environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community or society to the impact of hazards.


CATASTROPHE“… any natural or manmade incident, including terrorism, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the population, infrastructure, environment, economy, national morale, and/or government functions.”


Continuum of Magnitude


Emergency Disaster Catastrophe Extinction Level Event

ResilienceResilience is the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures.


Disaster is an Opportunity


Rising Exposure to Cyclones and Hurricanes, 2000-2050


Strategic Emergency Management Plan (SEMP)

The inner circle includes all of the elements that influence the development of the SEMP,such as:• updates of environmental scans;• ongoing/regular all-hazards risk assessments;• engaged leadership;• regular training;• regular exercises; and• a Capability Improvement Process (CAIP)—the whole-of-government approach to the collection and analysis of government response for exercises and real events


The Planning Context• EM-Related Plans• SEMP• Operational plans• Regional EM plans• Regional operational plans

• Security plans• Business continuity plans

• Inter-agency plans


The Planning Context• Assessments• Environmental scans• Criticality assessments including data on critical infrastructure

• Business impact analyses

• Threat assessments• Vulnerability assessments

• Risk assessments• All-hazards risk assessments


Disaster Risk Management Framework


Core Response Management Systems

• Core response management systems are similar for most disaster types.

• It reduces confusion if all responses have the same basic organization.

• It’s less expensive.


Challenges to Decision Making vs Basic Goals

Challenges to Decision Making • Where Uncomfortable Officials • Meet in Unfamiliar Surroundings• To Play Unaccustomed Roles• Making Unpopular Decisions• Based on Inadequate Information• And in Much Too Little Time

Basic GoalsStanding Orders for All Disasters:• Establish/re-establish communication with affected area.

• Secure and complete search and rescue.

• Meet basic human needs for medical treatment, water, food, shelter, and emergency fuels

• Restore critical infrastructure.

• Open schools and local businesses.

• Begin the recovery.


Pakistan Earthquake - Oct 2005

A Snapshot Of Scale And Magnitude• Magnitude : 7.6 on the Richter Scale - 30,000 sq Km• Affected Area : 30,000 sq Km (Nine Districts – Inhospitable Terrain)• Human Loss : 73,338 Dead and &128,304 Severely Injured• Physical Loss:

– 3 .5 Million Rendered Homeless, over 600,000 Houses Destroyed– 5,344 Education Facilities Destroyed– 307 Health Facilities Destroyed– 715 Government Sector Buildings Damaged– 2,393 Km Roads Damaged

• The Challenge :– Reconstruction and Rehabilitation of Destroyed Infrastructure (Over 12,000 Projects)

– Renewal of Livelihood, Protection of Environment, Re-establishment of Telecom and Power Networks and Rehabilitation of Vulnerable Population

– Clearance of Massive Slides and Tons of Rubble• Colossal Economic Loss Leaving Behind a Reconstruction Bill of over US$ 5 billion


Pakistan Earthquake - Oct 2005


• The earthquake in Haiti

• 12th Jan 2010• left 1.5 million homeless

• killed 149,095 people of which 6300 died in a potentially preventable cholera outbreak which infected a further 450,000 residents

Haiti Earthquake 2010


Floods in Pakistan 2010• Floods in Pakistan

• July to August 2010

• affected 20 million people and destroyed health facilities


Famine in Africa 2011• The famine in Africa in

2011 • affected 10 million people

across several countries• Large population

displacement created additional public health challenges to areas that have poorly developed health systems

• lack disaster preparedness• Immediate priorities

included – provision of water, sanitation, shelter

• trained staff to address widespread acute malnutrition

• surveillance for outbreaks• vaccine programs for

preventable diseases• funding• inter-agency coordination


Earthquake & Tsunami Japan 2011

• The earthquake and tsunami in Japan

• 11th March 2011• caused destruction of

healthcare facilities• Initial shortages of food• Water• Fuel• aid materials • rescue teams to the

affected rural population• 400,000 people were

evacuated to shelters with no heating in freezing temperatures

• Japan had invested in disaster management

• had created a more resilient health system which continued to function in spite of the challenges


World’s Costliest Disasters


Economic and Insured Losses


Overall and Insured Losses from Catastrophes


Economic Losses due to Natural Catastrophes


Major Disasters since 2010


Disasters Affect Everyone


Public Health Emergency PreparednessThe capability of the public health and health-care systems, communities, and individuals to prevent, protect against, quickly respond to, and recover from health emergencies, particularly those whose scale, timing, or unpredictability threatens to overwhelm routine capabilities


Health System Priorities in All-Hazards Disaster Management WHO

1. Leadership and governance

• International, national and cross-boundary systems of governance, coordination and response for all hazards disasters

2. Health workforce• Public health training in

disaster management and evaluation

3. Medical products, vaccines and technology• Stockpiling disaster-related

medications and equipment, and their distribution

4. Health information• Communications – inter-

agency, two-way with the public and the role of the media as part of disaster management strategy

5. Health financing• Health finance system and

disaster management funding issues

6. Service delivery• Community preparedness

strategies to increase community resilience


The Complexity Paradigm• disaster management problems in the future will be more complex

• population growth• climate change• regulatory requirements

• short-term thinking must be rejected

• planning over longer time horizons


The Uncertainty Paradigm

• uncertainty in time and space

• uncertainty caused by inherent variability of physical components

• uncertainty caused by a fundamental lack of knowledge

• decrease in disaster data availability


Sources of Uncertainty


Integrated Disaster Management

Integrated disaster management is an iterative process of decision making regarding prevention of, response to, and recovery from, a disaster.


INTEGRATED DISASTER MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES

Mitigation • long-term planning• identifying vulnerability of every part of the territory to particular types of hazards

• identification of steps that should be taken to minimize the risks

• proactive measures taken before an emergency or disaster occurs

Steps can include:• modifying building codes to ensure buildings can withstand earthquake and high winds

• forbidding building on land that is prone to flooding

• Identification of evacuation procedures



Land Use Planning and Management• Promoting appropriate land use for local conditions

• keeps people and property out of hazardous areas

• provides more affordable housing and living conditions,

• protects the environment • reduces the costs of growth and development



Engineering• state-of-the-art engineering approaches

• reducing mortality rates from hazards and disasters



Building Codes and Standards• quality of buildings and infrastructure is directly related to loss of life

• Injuries• financial costs of disasters

• disaster-resilient construction

Building codes provide the minimum acceptable requirements necessary(a)to preserve the

public safety, health, and welfare

(b)to protect the property and the built environment



Prediction, Forecast, and Warning• effective warning system comprises four elements

• Failure in any one part can mean failure of the whole system

1. Risk knowledge phase• systematic data collection and risk assessments

2. Monitoring phase• development of hazard monitoring and early warning services

3. Dissemination and communication phase 4. Response capability development phase



Insurance• now available for some but not all natural disasters

• now available for some but not all natural disasters


Preparedness• formulating, testing, and exercising disaster plans

• providing training for disaster responders and the general public

• communicating with the public and others about disaster vulnerability


Response• emergency sheltering• search and rescue• care of injured• damage assessment • emergency measures• coordination• communications• ongoing situation assessment

• resource mobilization during emergency period 14,500 meals ready

to eat15,000 liters of water by airDisaster Management 43

Recovery• Reconstruction• Restoration• Rehabilitation• Post disaster development


Disaster Management Acts

• Emergency Management Act

• National Disaster Mitigation Strategy

• Joint Emergency Preparedness Program

• Emergency Response Disaster Management 45

Systems Thinking and IntegratedDisaster Management

• What is a System?• S : X → Y• X is an input vector and Y is an output vector

• a system is a set of operations that transforms input vector X into output vector Y


Systems Approach to Disaster Management

• SIMULATION1. Development of a model of the system,2. Operation of the model 3. Observation and interpretation of the resulting outputs• SYSTEM DYNAMICS SIMULATION• understanding the system and its boundaries

• identifying the key variables• describing the processes that affect variables through mathematical relationships,

• mapping the structure of the model, and

• simulating the model for understanding its behavior


Systems Approach to Disaster Management

• OPTIMIZATION• MULTIOBJECTIVE ANALYSIS• DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT• Risk analysis, Disaster prevention and

Preparedness for disaster

• COMPUTER SUPPORT: DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (DSS)

• Problem identification, Problem formulation, “What If” capability (adaptability), Use of analytical models (facilitation), Use of graphics ( fast response)


Evacuation


The Environmental Health Shelter Assessment Tool

The Environmental Health Shelter Assessment Tool is intended to• Serve as a standardized instrument for rapidly assessing environmental health conditions in shelter facilities

• Assist in identifying and prioritizing health and safety issues in shelters

• Provide shelter management officials with data and an assessment of environmental health conditions and recommendations for improvement

• Capture data and create documentation for use in future planning and improvement of shelters


Supply Chain Management


Disaster Risks


Vulnerability Conceptual Framework


Process Stages in Vulnerability Assessment


Shifting Approaches In Disaster Management Bangladesh

• Institutional Restructuring to Reflect a Shift in Disaster Management

• Increasing roles and responsibilities of NGOs

• Developments in the Institutional Framework: Introduction to the Comprehensive Disaster Management Plan (CDMP)

• Shift from relief and response to disaster risk management


ISSUES IN FUTURE DISASTER MANAGEMENT

• Climate Change• Temperature Extremes• Precipitation Extremes • Drought• Tropical Cyclones• Severe Weather Events• Sea-Level Rise• Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF)


Integrated Environmental Observation Network


Tsunami Early Warning Systems


NOAA GOES-13 satellite showing Hurricane Irene on August 25, 2011 at 10:10 a.m.


Simulation Models Category 2 Storm


Green vs. Gray Infrastructure Costs


FEMA Trailer Types


Building America Structural Insulated Panel (BASIP) Homes


Katrina & Kernel Cottages


Three dimensional map rendition of flooding event-Purdue University


Satellite ImageVolcanic Eruption


Thank You


Disaster Management

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