Greater OKC Chamber

One of the nation’s largest chambers!

More than 5,000 Members

American Chamber of Commerce Executives

Best of Show in 2012

Consistently rated Top 10 Chamber  

A  Look  Ahead  At  2014  And  Lessons  From  2013  

CREC  February  20,  2014  

ECONOMIC  FORECAST  &  DATA  TOOLS  

GREATER  OKLAHOMA  CITY  

2.4%  2.6%   2.3%  

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  

Ann

ual P

erce

nt C

hang

e

MSA

 Employ

men

t,  Tho

usan

ds  

OKC  MSA  Nonfarm  and  Private  Employment  

Percent  Change,  YOY   OKC  Nonfarm   OKC  Private  

0.5% 2.2%

4.1%

6.7

21.0

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  

Anu

ual  P

erce

nt  Cha

nge  

Mining  Em

ploy

men

t,  Tho

usan

ds  

OKC  MSA  Mining  Employment  

Percent  Change,  YOY   OKC  Mining  Employment  

-­‐12.1%  

-­‐4.6%  

2.5%   1.8%  2.6%  

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ann

ual  P

erce

nt  Cha

nge  

Man

ufac

turing

 Employ

men

t,  Tho

usan

ds  

OKC  MSA  Manufacturing  Employment  

Percent  Change,  YOY   OKC  Manufacturing  Employment  

1.1%

3.6% 3.1%

-­‐8.0%  

-­‐6.0%  

-­‐4.0%  

-­‐2.0%  

0.0%  

2.0%  

4.0%  

6.0%  

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  

Ann

ual  P

erce

nt  Cha

nge  

PBS  Em

ploy

men

t,  Tho

usan

ds  

OKC  MSA  Professional  and  Business  Employment  

Percent  Change,  YOY   OKC  Professional  and  Business  Employment  

4.5%

3.6% 3.4%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  

Ann

ual  P

erce

nt  Cha

nge  

OKC  TTU

 Employ

men

t,  Tho

usan

ds  

OKC  MSA  Trade,  Transport,  &  Utilities  Employment  

Percent  Change,  YOY   OKC  Trade,  Transport  &  Utilties  

4.0%  

4.6%  

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

0  

10,000  

20,000  

30,000  

40,000  

50,000  

60,000  

1990

19

91

1992

19

93

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

20

11

2012

20

13

2014

20

15

Ann

ual  G

rowth

,  %  

Per  Cap

ita  Perso

nal  Inc

ome  ($)  

OKC  MSA  Per  Capita  Personal  Income  

Annual  Growth   OKC  Per  Capita  Personal  Income  

1.7% 1.6%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1970

19

72

1974

19

76

1978

19

80

1982

19

84

1986

19

88

1990

19

92

1994

19

96

1998

20

00

2002

20

04

2006

20

08

2010

20

12

2014

Ann

ual  G

rowth

,  %    

MSA

 Pop

ulation  

OKC  MSA  Population  

Annual  Growth   OKC  MSA  Population  

-­‐6%  

-­‐4%  

-­‐2%  

0%  

2%  

4%  

6%  

8%  

10%  

0  

100  

200  

300  

400  

500  

600  

700  

800  

900  

Jan-

91

Sep-

91

May

-92

Jan-

93

Sep-

93

May

-94

Jan-

95

Sep-

95

May

-96

Jan-

97

Sep-

97

May

-98

Jan-

99

Sep-

99

May

-00

Jan-

01

Sep-

01

May

-02

Jan-

03

Sep-

03

May

-04

Jan-

05

Sep-

05

May

-06

Jan-

07

Sep-

07

May

-08

Jan-

09

Sep-

09

May

-10

Jan-

11

Sep-

11

NF  Em

ploy

men

t,  Tho

usan

ds  

Non-­‐Farm  Employment:  OKC  &  Austin  

OKC  YOY  %  Change   AUS  YOY  %  Change   OKC  NF  EMP   AUS  NF  EMP  

OKC                    +  28,200  

Austin            +  230,200  

OESC  Employer  Locator  193,000  business  records  with  contact  info  for  Oklahoma  companies  

OKCEDIS.com  

www.greateroklahomacity.com/OKCLBI  

OKC  Local  Business  Intelligence  Tool  

Compare  your  business  to  the  compe??on    •   By  industry,  city,  county,  metro,  state  and  na?on  

Research  Tools    2014  Economic  Forecast  available  at:  •   www.greateroklahomacity.com/forecast    

OESC  Employer  Locator  (business  list)  •   hUp://www.oesc.state.ok.us/lmi/EmployerLocator/      Commercial  Property  Locator  •   www.OKCEDIS.com    

Local  Business  Intelligence  Tool  •   www.greateroklahomacity.com/OKCLBI    

2013  RESULTS  AND  PIPELINE  ACTIVITY  

GREATER  OKLAHOMA  CITY  

2013  Actuals   2013  Goals   Campaign  

Actuals  5-­‐Year  Goals**  

Jobs   6,561   4,000  –  5,000   15,110   20,000  –  25,000  

Average  Salary***   $43,533   $45,453  -­‐-­‐    

$47,430   $54,736   $45,453  -­‐  $47,430  

Capital  Investment   $501,709,800   $180M  -­‐  

$200M   $1,297,219,330   $900M  -­‐  $1Billion  

Local  Tax  Revenue*   $13,058,477   $10M  -­‐  $11M   $33,736,788   $50M  -­‐  $55M  

Forward  OKC  IV  Results  

January  2014  Project  Pipeline  

*Note: Not all projects provide the key pieces of information listed above.

13,625  jobs   $399    million  payroll  

$555  million    capital  investment  

3.6  million  Sq.  Ft.  

28  Ac?ve  Projects  

Behind  the  Pipeline  Numbers  

•   Of  28  Projects….  –   18  seeking  less  than  500  jobs,  2  more  than  1,000  jobs  –   Industry/Func^on:  

•   Avia^on  –  3  •   Call/Shared  Services  –  2  •   Distribu^on  –  2  •   Manufacturing  –  13  •   Office  –  2  •   Other  –  1  

–   Six  provided  specific  acreage  needs,  4-­‐70  acres  –   19  provided  square  footage  at  this  stage,  5K  to  1  mm  –   Eight  require  less  than  100K  

2013  Projects  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

35  

40  

Total  Projetcs  

2013  Jobs  

0  

4,000  

8,000  

12,000  

16,000  

20,000  

*Note: Not all projects provide the key pieces of information listed above.

2013  Total  Annual  Payroll  

$0    

$50,000,000    

$100,000,000    

$150,000,000    

$200,000,000    

$250,000,000    

$300,000,000    

$350,000,000    

$400,000,000    

$450,000,000    

*Note: Not all projects provide the key pieces of information listed above.

2013  Project  Investments  

$0    

$200,000,000    

$400,000,000    

$600,000,000    

$800,000,000    

$1,000,000,000    

$1,200,000,000    

$1,400,000,000    

*Note: Not all projects provide the key pieces of information listed above.

2013  Total  Sq.  Footage  

0  

500,000  

1,000,000  

1,500,000  

2,000,000  

2,500,000  

3,000,000  

3,500,000  

4,000,000  

4,500,000  

5,000,000  

*Note: Not all projects provide the key pieces of information listed above.

Retail  Efforts:  Results  and  Impacts    •   More  than  40  site  visits  in  OKC  in  2013  

–   OKC  con^nues  to  be  on  the  radar  of  retailers  recognizing  OKC’s  poten^al  

•   Moving  from  “Top  of  Low  Priority  List”  to  “Top  of  List”  for  2014-­‐15.    

•   Snapshot  of  Announcements  in  2013  (All  First  Oklahoma  Loca^ons)      –   Nordstrom  Rack    –   Top  Golf    –   Von  Maur    –   Microsok  

•   Development  and  Redevelopment  Opportuni^es  Underway    

Key  Opportunity:    Underserved  Markets  

•   Why  focus  on  these  areas?    –   Tradi^onal  market  data  and  analysis  may  be  inaccurate  or  misrepresent  the  economic  poten^al  and  purchasing  power  

–   Seeking  to  establish  a  healthier  retail  presence  through  public-­‐private  partnerships  in  underes^mated,  primarily  urban  inner  city  markets  

–   Bring  OKC  prosperity  to  more  por^ons  of  the  City  over  ^me  

 

Highligh^ng  Underserved  Markets  •   Held  Program  on  Poten^al  of  Underserved  Markets  

–   Partnered  with  Interna^onal  Council  of  Shopping  Centers  (ICSC),  City  of  OKC,  Alliance  for  Economic  Development,  Urban  Land  Ins^tute  (ULI)  &  Black  Chamber    

•   Follow-­‐up  Underway  with  key  interest  groups  •   Community  (residents,  community  based  organiza^ons)    •   Government  (elected  officials  and  professional  staff)    •   Developers    •   Retailers    

•   Working  with  exis^ng  retailer,  Alliance  and  City  on  a  site  in  NE  OKC  to  increase  store  footprint  size  and  add  further  development  

•   Con^nue  dialogue  with  retailers  and  developers  about  various  underserved  sites  in  OKC    

Project  Golden  Fox  

•   Interna^onal  company  seeking  new  North  American  manufacturing  loca^on  

•   Investment:    $800  MM,  750  employees  (avg.  wage  $53K+)  •   Need:  160  acre  site  •   Outcome:  OKC  region  dropped  •   Challenge:  had  only  one  site  that  was  poten^ally  a  fit  really.    

School  Lands  site,  requiring  public  bid  process  and  had  challenges  on  site  too  (easements,  etc.)  

Project  Domino  

•   Petro  Chemical  plant  •   Investment:    $550  MM,  80  employees  (avg.  wage  $76K+)  •   Need:  60  acre  site,  rail  served  and  2  million  gallons  of  water/

day  plus  lots  of  natural  gas  (60,000  MMBtu/day)  •   Outcome:  OKC  region  dropped  •   Challenge:  water  requirement  just  not  workable  AND  would  

have  been  largest  natural  gas  user  in  state  

Project  Lewis  &  Clark  

•   Fulfillment  Center/distribu^on  •   Investment:  400-­‐600  employees  •   Need:  300-­‐500,000  sf  building  with  32  foot  clear  height  and  

very  ^ght  ^meframe  (needed  opera^onal  in  12  months)  •   Outcome:  OKC  region  dropped  •   Challenge:  no  exis^ng  buildings;  only  built  to  suit  op^ons.    

Company  was  too  nervous  to  have  it  work  in  their  ^meframe  

Project  Delta  

•   Shared  Service  center  (HR/IT/Finance)  •   Investment:    1,100  employees  (avg.  wage  $39K+)  •   Need:  Exis^ng  100,000  sf  building  •   Outcome:  OKC  region  dropped  in  finals,  Nashville  chosen  •   Challenge:  two  poten^al  buildings.  one  was  downtown,  

second  refiUed  industrial  building.    Parking  issues  downtown  and  other  challenges  at  second  facility.    Nashville,  more  op^ons  for  real  estate,  same  ^me  zone  as  HQ  

Poten^al  Take-­‐Aways  

•   Challenges  of  Success  are  evident  across  most  of  MSA/region  •   Lack  of  product  straining  ability  to  capture  some  opportuni^es  

–   Lease  rate  expecta^ons  and  reali^es  geung  closer  but  not  completely  there  yet  

•   Pressure  by  other  uses  on  “good  places”  for  employment  opportuni^es  con^nues  to  create  challenges  

•   Need  to  determine  ways  to  balance  lessons  learned  in  1980s  with  expecta^ons/  interests  of  today’s  prospects  –   Staying  financially  wise  while  crea^ng  enough  product  

THANK  YOU  Eric  Long  Research  Economist  elong@okcchamber.com  405-­‐297-­‐8976  

 

Kurt  Foreman  EVP  Economic  Development  kforeman@okcchamber.com  (405)  297-­‐8945