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IKEHI, MICHAEL EJIME

PG/MED/12/62430

PERCEIVED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL

PRODUCTION IN NIGER DELTA REGION OF NIGERIA

FACULTY OF EDUCATION

DEPARTMENT OF VOCATIONAL TEACHER EDUCATION

Ameh Joseph Jnr

Digitally Signed by: Content manager’s Name

DN : CN = Webmaster’s name

O= University of Nigeria, Nsukka

OU = Innovation Centre

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PERCEIVED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN NIGER DELTA REGION OF

NIGERIA

BY

IKEHI, MICHAEL EJIME

PG/MED/12/62430


(AGRICULTURAL EDUCATION)

UNIVERSITY OF NIGERIA, NSUKKA.

SUPERVISOR: DR. F.M. ONU

MAY, 2014.

APPROVAL PAGE

3

THIS PROJECT HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR THE DEPARTMENT

OF VOCATIONAL TEACHER EDUCATION, UNIVERSITY OF NIGERIA,

NSUKKA.

By

……………………………….

…………………………………...

Dr. F.M. Onu Internal Examiner

Supervisor Head of Department

………………………………..

…………………………………...

External Examiner Prof. C.A. Igbo

Head of Department

…………………………………………..

Prof. Ike Ifelunni

Dean, Faculty of Education

4

CERTIFICATION

IKEHI, MICHAEL EJIME, a postgraduate student in the Department of

Vocational Teacher Education (VTE) with Registration Number

PG/M.ED/12/62430, has satisfactorily completed the requirements for the

award of the degree of MASTER in EDUCATION (M.ED) in

AGRICULTURAL EDUCATION. The work embodied in this project is

original and has not been submitted in part or full for any diploma or degree of

this or any other University.

_______________________ _______________________

Dr. F.M. ONU PROF. C.A. IGBO

(Supervisor) (Head of Department)

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DEDICATION

To

The IKEHI’s family.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

6

For providence and perseverance, the researcher is ever grateful to God,

the Almighty. To my supervisor, Dr. F.M. Onu, the researcher is very thankful

for committing valuable time to read this work and give constructive advice.

The researcher is indebted to the supervisor for his fatherly help during the

course of this programme. My unreserved gratitude goes to Dr. (Mrs.) F.O.

Ifeanyieze for her academic inputs and advice in this research. The researcher is

thankful for having Dr. (Mrs.) N.I. Nwabah as his guardian. The researcher

appreciates Prof. (Mrs.) C.A. Igbo, Dr. E.O. Ugwoke, Prof. E.C. Osinem, Dr.

(Mrs.) J.A. Ukonze and the entire staff of the Department of Vocational Teacher

Education, University of Nigeria, Nsukka for the knowledge impacted on the

researcher during the course of this programme.

To my beloved family, I am indeed grateful for the moral and financial

supports granted for this study. The researcher appreciates Mr. Iweriebor N.

Michael, Mr. Odiba Solomon Arome, Mr. Emmanuel Bitrus, Miss Jones

Nnedimma Francisca, and other friends for their various contributions towards

the success of this study. Special thanks to my course mates (PG/MED 12/13

set). Thank you all.

Ikehi Michael Ejime

University of Nigeria

Nsukka.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

7

TITLE PAGE … … …

…i

APPROVAL PAGE … … …

…ii

CERTIFICATION … … …

…iii

DEDICATION … … …

…iv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS … … …

…v

TABLE OF CONTENTS … … …

…vi

LIST OF TABLES … … …

…x

LIST OF FIGURES … … …

…xii

ABSTRACT … … …

…xiii

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

Background of the Study … … … …

1

Statement of the Problem … … … …

12

Purpose of the Study … … … …

14

Significance of the Study … … … …

14

Research Questions … … … …

16

8

Hypotheses … … … … …

16

Scope of the Study … … … … …

17

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

Conceptual Framework

Concept of Climate Change… … … …

19

Ecological Effects of Climate Change … … …

32

Concept of Impact and Impact Studies … … …

44

Agricultural Production in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria …

52

Impacts of Climate Change on Animal production

…53

Impacts of Climate Change on Crop production

…57

Impacts of Climate Change on Fish production

…63

Impacts of Climate Change on the Farmer and the

Farming Family... … …

…68

Adaptation Strategies for Coping with the Existing Impacts of

Climate Change on Agricultural Production in the Niger Delta

Region … … …

…72

Schema of the Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural

9

Production in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria … … …

80

Theoretical Framework

Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory … …

81

Planetary Processes Theory … … …

83

Ecological System Theory … … …

86

Related Empirical Studies … … … …

87

Summary of Literature Review … … … …

99

CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY

Design of the Study … … … …

101

Area of the Study … … … …

101

Population of the Study … … … …

102

Sample and Sampling Technique … … …

103

Instruments for Data Collection … … …

103

Validation of Instruments … … …

104

10

Reliability of the Instruments … … …

105

Method of Data Collection … … …

105

Method of Data Analysis … … …

105

CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF DATA

Research Question 1 … … … …

107

Hypothesis 1 … … … …

109


111


113


115


117


120


122


124


127

11

Findings of the Study … … …

…130

Discussion of Findings … … …

…133

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND

RECOMMENDATIONS

Summary of the Study … … …

…141

Principal Findings of the Study … …

…143

Conclusion… … … …

…144

Implication of the Study … … …

…144

Recommendations … … …

…145

Suggestions for Further Studies … …

…146

REFERENCES … … …

…147

LIST OF APPENDICES

A – Questionnaire Instrument … …

…160

B – Interview Instrument… … …

…165

C – Map of Nigeria Showing Niger Delta States …

…166

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D – Map of the Niger Delta Region … …

…167

E – Global Impacts of Climate Change… …

…168

F – Causal Factors of Climate Change … …

…169

G – Pictorial Representation of the Greenhouse Effect

…170

H – Acid Rain… … … …

…171

I – Scorched Farmland … … …

…172

J –Local Farmer’s Flood Inundated Area and Degraded Water

…173

K – Flooded Rural House… … …

…174

L – Mulching Materials… … …

…175

M – Mulching and Ridging to Control Effects of Climate Change

…176

N – Sampling Procedure… … …

…177

O - Percentage Distribution of the Respondents According to their

Socio-Economic Characteristics… … …178

LIST OF TABLES

1 Major Greenhouse Gases… … … …25

2 Fossil Fuel Combustion… … … …26

13

3 Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Program …27

4 Atmospheric Lifetime and GWP Relative to CO2 at Different Time Horizon for Various Greenhouse Gases … …29

5 Mean Ratings and Standard Deviation of Respondents on

the Extent to which Climate Change has Impacted on Animal Production in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria… … …107

6 t-test Distribution of the Perception of Farmers and Extension Workers on the Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Animal Production in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria… … …109

7 Summary of t-test Comparison of the Mean Responses of

Farmers and Extension Workers on the Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Animal Production in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria … … … … …110

8 Mean Ratings and Standard Deviation of Respondents on the

Extent to which Climate Change has Impacted on Crop Production in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria… … …111

9 t-test Distribution of the Perception of Farmers and Extension

Workers on the Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria… … …113

10 Summary of t-test Comparison of the Mean Responses of Farmers and Extension Workers on the Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria… … … … … …114

11 Mean Ratings and Standard Deviation of Respondents

on the Extent to which Climate Change has Impacted on Fish Production in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria… … …115

14


Workers on the Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Fish Production in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria… … …118

13 Summary of t-test Comparison of the Mean Responses of

Farmers and Extension Workers on the Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Fish Production in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria… … … … … …119

14 Mean Ratings and Standard Deviation of Respondents on the

Extent to which Climate Change has Impacted on the Farming Families in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria… … …120


Workers on the Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Farming Families in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria… … …123

16 Summary of t-test Comparison of the Mean Responses of Farmers and Extension Workers on the Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Farming Families in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria … … … … …124

17 Mean Ratings and Standard Deviation of Respondents on the Coping Strategies that can be Adopted for the Alleviation of the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria … … … …125

18 t-test Distribution of the Perception of Farmers and Extension Workers on the Strategies for Coping with the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria … … … … …128

19 Summary of t-test Comparison of the Mean Responses of Farmers and Agricultural Extension Workers on the Strategies for Coping with the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural

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Production in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria… … …129

LIST OF FIGURES

1 Linking Emitted Gases (SO2, Nox, NH3, CO2) to Soil and Water Acidification… … …

…37 2 Impact Diagram… … … … …45 3 Schematic Representation of the Potential Mode of Action of

Inconvenient Thermal Environment on the Production Potential and Product Quality of Livestock … … …54

16

Abstract

The study was aimed at determining the perceived impacts of climate change on

agricultural production in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria. The study specifically

determined the perceived impact posed by climate change on animal, crop and

fish production as well as the farming families and also explored the coping

strategies for adaptation. Five research questions and five hypotheses guided the

study. The study adopted descriptive survey research design. The population of

the study was 73,603 respondents made up of 73,513 registered farmers in 10

selected local government regions and 90 extension workers. Proportionate

stratified random sampling technique was used to select 1% (735) of the farmers

from each LGA (strata) while the 90 extension workers were used (based on

their small size) bring the sample size to 825 respondents. A 103-items

structured questionnaire and a structured interview were used to collect data.

The items on the questionnaire were assigned four response options of High

Extent/Strongly Agree (HE/SA= 4), Moderate Extent/Agree (ME/A=3), Low

Extent/Disagree (LE/D=2) and No Extent/Strongly Disagree (NE/SD=1). The

instruments were face validated by three experts: two from the Department of

Vocational Teacher Education, University of Nigeria, Nsukka and one from the

Department of Vocational and Technical Education at the University of Benin,

Benin-city. The reliability of the questionnaire was established using Cronbach

Alpha method and a coefficient of 0.79 was obtained. Out of the 825

instruments administered, 730 copies of the questionnaire and interview were

retrieved and utilized for analysis representing 88.5% retrieval. The data were

analyzed using mean and standard deviation to answer the research questions

and t-test statistics was used to test the null hypotheses at 0.05 level of

significance at the derived degrees of freedom. The findings of the study

revealed that the perceived impacts of climate change on animal, crop, fish

production as well as on farming families in the Niger Delta are moderate.

Findings further revealed that climate change has resulted to high occurrence of

flood in the region as well as increased poverty level and the cost of production

(input and labour cost) as indicated by the farmers in the Niger Delta region.

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Recommendations made included continuous training of extension workers on

current information about climate change, and the encouragement of farmers by

providing incentives and subsidizing inputs for them by State Ministry of

Agriculture and Natural Resources and other well-meaning non-governmental

organization in the region.

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CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

Background of the Study

Agriculture has been known to be an important component of the human

society for its numerous importance to man. Agriculture refers to the production

of crops and rearing of livestock for man’s benefit (Tatathi, Naik & Jalgaonkar,

2011). It involves the rearing of animals and the production of crops for food,

fiber, biofuel, drugs and other products used to sustain and enhance human life

(International Labour Organization, ILO, 1999). In this study, agriculture refers

to the sourcing and utilization of raw materials for the cultivation of crops,

rearing of animals, processing and conversion of raw produce into finished

goods and the distribution of finished goods for human and industrial use. The

importance of agriculture is numerous and varied such as serving individual and

industrial needs as well as contributing to the economic growth of many

countries. Agriculture is a major sector of Nigeria’s economy, engaging over

70% of the labour force and contributing about 40% to the Gross Domestic

Product (GDP) (Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development,

FMARD, 2000). Agriculture generates revenue for the government at the local,

state and federal levels and as well serves as a means of livelihood by providing

employment for farmers, marketers and processors of agricultural products. It

provides food for the teeming population, feed for animals and raw materials for

1

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various industries. Societies are known to have distinguished themselves by the

way and degree in which they have succeeded in increasing agricultural

production for human and industrial use (Food and Agriculture Organization,

FAO, 2004). In Nigeria, the most common attempt at improving agriculture has

been the increase in the area of land for agricultural purposes as a response to

improving food production and raising its contribution to GDP in the nation. In

2009, agriculture’s contribution to GDP in Nigeria rose to 42%, but later

declined to 40.19% in 2011 and further decreased to 39.12% by the end of 2012

(National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, 2013). Due to the significance of

agriculture to man and industries, many people engage in agricultural

production.

Production is the process of converting inputs (scarce resources) into

output (products) (Drummond & Goodwin, 2011). It is the utilization of raw

materials to creating output in the form of goods or services, which has

exchange and utility value (Kotler, Armstrong, Brown & Adams, 2006). The

authors further stated that any effort directed towards the realization of a desired

product or service is a ‘productive effort’, and the performance of such act is

production. Agriculture produces goods which are utilized by man and

industries directly or indirectly. Farmers utilize scarce resources to produce

agricultural goods (crops and animals) that are useful to man and industries,

thus they can be referred to as agricultural producers. In this view, agricultural

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production is the process of utilizing resources such as land, labour, capital and

entrepreneurial skills to create goods that have exchange and utility values to

man and industries. Agricultural productions, like every other production

processes, require certain conditions for good yield. These conditions are

usually affected by climate.

Climate is the average weather condition of a place taken over a

prolonged period of time (American Meteorological Society, AMS, 2011). It is

the statistics of temperature, humidity, pressure, wind, rainfall, sunshine

intensity, particle count and other meteorological elemental measurements in a

given area over a long period of time, usually 30years and above

(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2007). While weather is

the present atmospheric condition such as the intensity of sunshine and amount

of rainfall for the day, climate is the average of these meteorological elements

collected over a range of time. Details of climate record are known through

measurements from instruments like thermometers, barometers, and

anemometers which are usually presented as weather information. The

instruments used in studying weather are periodically modified to provide better

understanding of the climate (Spencer, 2007) which is needed to be able to

determine climate change.

Climate change is the complete variation or average state of the

atmosphere over time scales, ranging from decades to millions of years in a

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region or across the entire globe which can be caused by processes internal to

the earth, external forces from space or human activities (Lemke, 2006). In

recent time, especially in the context of environmental policy, climate change

has often been referred to as the noticeable variation in environmental and

atmospheric composition (IPCC, 2007). In some cases, the term climate change

is used with a presumption of human causation of continuous weather alteration,

as stated in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC, 2011). Climate change in the context of this study refers to the

variation in the statistical distribution of average weather conditions over a

prolonged period of time. Climate change may occur across the whole earth or

can be limited to a specific region where causative factors are available

(UNFCCC, 2011), such as the Niger Delta region of Nigeria.

The Niger Delta region of Nigeria is densely populated and occupies

about 12% of the total land mass of Nigeria with a land area of about 70,000km²

out of which 2,370km2 consist of rivers, creeks and estuaries, while stagnant

swamp covers about 8600km² (Ugolor, 2004). The region is endowed with great

potentials for high productive and profitable agricultural practice (Fapojuwo,

Ajayi & Abiona, 2012). The region is divided into drier landward part where

crop farming is the major agricultural activity and the seaward part (riverine and

swampy area) which is characterized by extensive creeks and water bodies,

where fishing and aquaculture replaces crop farming as the dominant aspect of

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the rural economy (Aweto, 2011). The economy of the region is based on the

natural environment which is usually influenced by climate conditions. The

economic activities of the communities in the region are either land-based or

water-based to include collection and processing of palm fruits, crop and animal

farming, fishing and fish farming, forest resources utilization (such as game,

raffia) and trading which are often affected by climate thus influencing

favourable factors of agricultural production in the region (Rosemary, Okoh,

Michael, Igbekele, Idehen, Ajieh, Nwabueze & Osakwuni, 2012). The factors

that favour agricultural production in the Niger Delta region include normal

temperature, appropriate rainfall, sufficient sunlight, absence or controlled level

of pest and diseases and edaphic requirements for the crops. The major

agricultural produce in the region are cassava, cocoa, maize, melon, okra, palm

oil, rubber, timber and yam, in addition to rearing of animals such as goat,

poultry, and sheep as well as fishes. These agricultural produce are usually

affected by climate change in the region. Climate cannot be dissociated from

agriculture in the region since its various elements like rainfall, sunshine,

humidity and temperature are essential for the survival of animals, crops, fishes

and man.

Human activities have speeded up climate change and its impacts on

agriculture and livelihoods in communities in the region. For example, the

Niger Delta region is reported to have over 123 gas flaring sites, making Nigeria

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one of the highest emitters of greenhouse gases in Africa (Akinro, Opeyemi &

Ologunagba, 2008). Nigeria accounts for roughly one-sixth (1/6) of worldwide

gas flaring: Nigeria flares about 75% of her gas and all take place in the Niger

Delta region (World Bank, 2008). Some 45.8 billion kilowatts of heat are

discharged into the atmosphere of the Niger Delta, from flaring 1.8 billion cubic

feet of gas every day (Olurin & Agbola, 2003). Gas flaring has raised

temperatures and rendered large areas uninhabitable in the region. Between

1970 and 1986, about 125.5 million cubic meters of gas was produced in the

Niger Delta region; about 102.3 (81.7%) million cubic meters were flared

(World Bank, 2008). The flares, due to the existence of oil industries, have

apparently contributed to the increase of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the region.

Increased supply of GHG is a major cause of climate change.

The major causes of climate change are the increase of GHG in the

atmosphere resulting from gas flaring, fossil burning and to a lesser extent,

deforestation arising from clearing of land for agricultural, and industrial uses,

in addition to other human activities that have led to increased concentrations of

GHG especially carbon IV oxide (CO2) (IPCC, 2007; Uyigue & Agho, 2007).

The two primary sources of GHG emissions are combustion of fuels and flaring

of the natural gas, which is extracted along with crude oil (Engber, 2006). In

2009, the average CO2 emission in Nigeria was 74.14 million metric tons, which

increased to 80.51 million metric tons and was predicted to drastically increase

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in the near future due to high population and rising demand for crude oil (The

Guardian, 2012). Niger Delta is home for most of the energy companies

responsible for the major emissions of CO2 in Nigeria. For deforestation, the

grasses and trees make use of CO2 and releases Oxygen (O2) thereby decreasing

its atmospheric concentration, while increasing the availability of O2 during

respiration. When deforestation occurs, the O2 which is supposed to be released

by the trees is not produced, thus reducing its supply in the atmosphere while

CO2 becomes higher as fewer trees are available for its usage. The recent

climate change is of particular importance as it is human-induced especially as

the major sources of GHG are highly available in the region. The projected

effects of climate change for agricultural production in the region is numerous

and varied.

The main effect of climate change is the increasing average temperature

which causes a variety of secondary effects (IPCC, 2007). The secondary effects

caused by increased temperature include, changes in patterns of precipitation

and rainfall, rising sea levels, altered patterns of agriculture, increased extreme

weather events, expansion of the range of tropical diseases, and the opening of

new trade routes among others (Ogundele, 2012). These secondary effects of

climate change have affected agricultural production in the region.

Before the observed changes in climate in the region, agriculture was

known to be stable and farmers complained less. The region occupies greater

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area of Nigeria’s most fertile land suitable for the production of crops such as

cassava, palm tree, rubber, yam, and many other crops while the availability of

water bodies makes, feasible the rearing of fish (Abisola, 2013). Being a coastal

region, the climate and environment of the region supports the survival of

various aquatic species particularly fish. It is reported that about 50% of fishes

consumed in Nigeria are from the Niger Delta (Uyigue & Agho, 2007). More

than 75% of over 30 million inhabitants of the region live along the coastal area

and survive mainly on fishing and crop farming (Aletan, Martins & Idowu,

2011). Some of the people, especially the women engaged in marketing of the

agricultural produce in the region. In light of the changing climate in the region,

agricultural production is greatly affected.

The change in climate affects crops, livestock, forestry, and fishery in

various ways. Climate change in the region has led to flooding, scorching

temperature, change in rainfall pattern, coastal erosion, acid rain and increased

water salination. Flooding in the Niger Delta region (between July and October

2012), forced rivers to overflow their banks and submerged hundreds of

thousands of acres of farmland (Hassan, 2012). Besides the destruction of

buildings and lives, floods ravage crops and severe transportation routes in the

region. The cost of managing the land for cultivation, disease and pest control in

animal, crop and fish production has increased as a result of climate change, and

is affecting the social and economic wellbeing of farmers. Among the nine

26

Niger Delta states, Delta was the most affected state in the region with flood

submerging and destroying farmlands in 18 out of the 25 local government

areas in the state (National Emergency Management Agency, NEMA, 2012).

Agricultural production in the state was greatly affected which prompted the

state government to register displaced farmers, with the aim of supplying them

with inputs such as seedlings to encourage them to go back to farming. The

trend of events in the study area would suggest that climate change has affected

agriculture negatively in the region. However, it is important to note that some

experts hold contrary opinions about the impacts of climate change on

agriculture.

A change in climate as it occurs may result in the distribution and

coverage of vegetation (Frank & Elizabeth, 2013). The authors further stated

that some changes in climate results in increased precipitation and warmth,

leading to improved plant growth and the subsequent sequestration of CO2. A

gradual increase in warmth in a region leads to earlier flowering and fruiting

times, driving a change in the timing of life cycles of animals and plants. This

encourages fast maturation of crops grown, cutting down the delay period

between cultivation and harvesting. Flooding is described as a natural process

which plays a significant role in the build-up and sustenance of the biota, soil

improvement and silt nourishment, which enhances soil composition for better

27

support of crops grown (Rosemary et al, 2012). Agriculture is heavily

dependent on climate and any observed change, will have a noticeable impact.

Impact refers to an immediate and strong effect something or somebody

has on another thing or person after encounter (Gadsby, 2007). It is the

difference made or outcome after an event (Championing Voluntary and Civic

Society, CVCS, 2013). It is a measure of the tangible and intangible effects

(consequences) of one thing or entity's action or influence upon another. It is

more-or-less the observed difference between the past and present or future state

of an object after the effect of change. Impact in this study is the noticeable

effect of climate change on animal and crop production, fishing and fish

farming and on the farming families. Impact can be measured by the degree and

nature of variation observed before and after the effect (climate) causing the

change. Impact could be positive or negative depending on the observed nature

of change. The extent of impact of climate change on agriculture in various

regions of the world is known to vary depending on the area and can either be

positive or negative. The impact of climate change on agricultural production in

Niger Delta can be deductively explained as the noticeable effect or deviation

from the usual farming trend as a result of variation in average weather

conditions in the region. The main participants of agricultural production in the

region are the farmers and the extension agents and their opinion on the impact

of climate change on agriculture depend on their level of education, years of

28

experience in farming as well as their age. Their guided opinion is referred to as

perception.

Perception is the ability to understand differences in situation (Romanov,

2013). It is the sensory experience of the activities within surroundings and

involves both the recognition of environmental stimuli and actions in response

to these stimuli (Kendra, 2013). Perception is the process by which we receive

information or stimuli from our environment and transform it into psychological

awareness (Romanov, 2013). Through the perceptual process, information about

properties and elements of the environment that are critical to survival are

acquired. It is interesting to know that people infer about a certain situation or

phenomenon differently, using the same or different sets of information.

Knowledge, interest, culture and many other social processes, shapes the

behaviour of an individual who uses information (Banjade, 2003). Perception

varies with the individual‘s past experiences and present sets or attitudes acting

through values, needs, memories, moods, social circumstances, and

expectations (Banjade, 2003). It is the individualized concept of feelings, ideas,

thoughts and theories or view about events, things and people (Romanov, 2013).

Perception in this study is the view of the individual farmers and extension

workers on the trend in agricultural production considering climate change in

the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The perceived impacts of climate change on

agricultural production expresses the general idea of the farmers and the

29

extension agents on the utilization of resources in the cultivation of crops and

rearing of animals in the region and their anticipated outcome.

Agricultural production is necessary for the survival of man and

industries, thus any variation in the production process demands immediate

attention, which is the focus of this study. There is, therefore, a need to verify

the perceived impacts of climate change on agricultural production, with

reference to animal, crop, farming family and fish production in the Niger Delta

region of Nigeria.

Statement of the Problem

Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive industries, with outdoor

production processes that depend on particular levels of temperature and

precipitation controlled by weather conditions. Climate has changed with recent

ecological happenings, such as rising temperature and flood becoming more

frequent. Unfortunately, the agricultural sector is at the receiving end of this

climate change. In Delta state and other Niger Delta states, there is increased

occasion of flood, rise in average temperature and variation in rainfall pattern,

resulting from climate change. Thus animal rearing, crop cultivation, fishing

and fish farming have been affected consequently destabilizing farming families

in the region. Farmers pray against excessive rainfall which can lead to flooding

or harsh economic conditions resulting to loss of animals, crops, farmlands and

income. The local farmer is seriously concerned about weather variations

30

because of its impacts on food availability, stability, accessibility and utilization

while the agricultural extension workers are engaged in educating the local

farmers. They are aware that climate change unfavourably affects yields, and

influences pests and diseases.

While majority of farmers and other experts hold the view that climate

change has resulted to adverse effects on agriculture thus having negative

impact, some experts argue contrary, postulating that climate change has

positive impact on agriculture. Changes in climate result in higher precipitation

and adequate temperature for agricultural production (Frank & Elizabeth, 2013).

Some suggested that climate change would bring net benefits to global

agriculture, owing to carbon fertilization and longer growing seasons in high-

latitude regions.

Despite the supposed impacts and observed changes, farmers are still

engaged in cultivation though using traditional farming system which is

characterized by the farmer’s own experience, those of their friends and even

the laid down fore-father’s knowledge. Practices from such knowledge are no

longer suitable with the current trend of events. The farmers are complaining of

drastic change they could not comprehend as their previous knowledge could

not serve them competently. It is necessary to ascertain the perceived impact of

climatic change on agricultural production in Niger Delta region of Nigeria with

a view to identifying the extent of the impacts on animal, crop and fishing

31

production, and on the farming families. Depending on the extent of perceived

impact, suggestions and the way forward to continue agricultural production

despite the changes in climate in the region will be made.

Purpose of the Study

The major purpose of this study was to determine the perceived impact of

climate change on agricultural production in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria.

Specifically, the study was to determine:

1. The extent to which climate change has impacted on: animal, crop,

fishing and fish production, and farming families in the Niger Delta

region.

2. The strategies for alleviating the impacts of climate change on

agricultural production in Niger Delta region of Nigeria.

Significance of the Study

The findings of this study will be beneficial to government, agricultural

extension workers, farmers and other researchers.

The study will provide information on the perceived extent to which

climate change has impacted on animal, crop, fish production and the farming

families. The information will help government to encourage and support

farmers in production activities. The knowledge of the findings would help the

32

government to make policies on how to check the effects of climate change on

agriculture in the Niger Delta region and Nigeria in general.

The study will provide information to agricultural extension workers on

adaptation strategies, which they could teach the farmers to adapt to in such

situations. One of the purposes of the study is to discover the suitable strategies

for alleviating the impact of climate. The information would serve as a body of

knowledge for the agricultural extension workers who teach the farmers on

improved farming practices.

The findings of the study would help farmers to reduce the impact of

climate change on agricultural production. The study will suggest to the farmers

suitable adaptation options in coping with climate change effects on agriculture.

An understanding of the impacts of climate change would help the framers to

mount appropriate strategies to keep agricultural production profitable to

matching the varying trend in farming activities.

The study could be used as a resource material on climate change and its

impact on agriculture for researchers who may be interested in researching on

related topics. The research is equipped with the findings on the impacts of

climate change on animal, crop, fish production and farming families as well as

strategies for coping with the change which could beef up the literature in their

studies.

33

Research Questions

This study was guided by the following research questions:

1. To what extent has climate change impacted on animal production in the

Niger Delta region of Nigeria?

2. To what extent has climate change impacted on crop production in the


3. To what extent has climate change impacted on fishing and fish

production in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria?

4. To what extent has climate change impacted on the farming families in

the Niger Delta region of Nigeria?

5. What are the coping strategies that can be adopted for the alleviation of

the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Niger Delta region of

Nigeria?

Hypotheses

This study was guided by the following hypotheses, which were tested at

0.05 level of significance.

1. There is no significant difference in the mean responses of farmers and

agricultural extension workers on the extent to which climate change has

impacted on animal production in Niger Delta region of Nigeria.

34



impacted on crop production in Niger Delta region of Nigeria.



impacted on fishing and fish farming in Niger Delta region of Nigeria.



impacted on farming families in Niger Delta region of Nigeria.


agricultural extension workers on the strategies for coping with the

impact of climate change on agricultural production in the Niger Delta

region of Nigeria.

Scope of the Study

The study determined the perceived impacts of climate change on

agricultural production in Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The study specifically

focused on the extent perceived impacts posed by climate change on animal,

crop and fish production as well as the farming families. The study was

restricted to climate change impacts in the Niger Delta with specific attention to

Delta state, where the impact is heavily felt.

35

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

The related literature to this study is discussed under the following sub

headings:

• Conceptual Framework

� Concept of Climate Change

� Ecological Effects of climate change

� Concept of Impact and Impact studies

� Agricultural Production in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria

� Adaptation Strategies for Coping with the Impact of Climate Change

on Agricultural Production in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria

• Theoretical Framework

� The Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory

� The Planetary Processes Theory

� Ecological Systems Theory

• Related Empirical Studies

• Summary of Literature Reviewed

18

36

Concept of Climate Change

Climate is the weather condition of an area over a number of years

(Mama & Osinem, 2007). It is the regular pattern of weather conditions of a

particular place. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007)

glossary definition shows that:

Climate is the average weather within a given duration. It is the

statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant

quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or

millions of years. The classical period is usually 30 years and the

quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature,

precipitation and wind.

Climate is the typical weather conditions experienced at any location or

area over series of years. Weather conditions such as rainfall, sun intensity,

surface temperature and other meteorological elements recorded on interval for

years and the average taken at the end of the targeted period is referred to as the

climate of the location where such data were collected. Over historical time

span, there have been a number of nearly constant variables that determine

climate, including latitude, altitude, proportion of land to water, and proximity

to oceans and mountains (IPCC, 2007). Many global issues are related to

climate, such as the supply of basic needs such as food, water, health, and

shelter. Unfavourable climate variations may threaten basic needs with

increased temperatures, sea level rise, changes in precipitation, and more

37

frequent or intense extreme events (Karl, Melillo, & Peterson, 2009). It is

predicted that food security, water and other key natural resources may be

threatened by climate change.

Climate change is the significant and lasting variation in the statistical

properties of the average weather system when considered over long period of

time, regardless of cause (IPCC, 2007). Climate change can be referred to as the

variation in average weather which is attributed directly or indirectly to human

activities in addition to natural events that alters the composition of the

atmosphere over comparable time period. The term is sometimes used to refer

specifically to climate variation caused by human activities, as opposed to

earth's natural processes (United Nations, UN, 1994). Climate change is a long-

term shift in the weather condition of a specific location, region or planet. The

shift is measured by changes in features associated with average weather, such

as temperature, wind patterns and precipitation (UN, 1994). It could be a shift in

average weather conditions, or in the distribution of weather around the average

conditions (IPCC, 2007). In the context of environmental policy, the term

climate change has become synonymous with anthropogenic global warming,

which is the rise in average surface temperature (IPCC, 2007). Global warming

is the heating of the earth’s surface which results when the atmosphere traps

heat radiating towards space (Oreskes, 2004). Global warming summarizes the

term referring to the increase in the surface temperature of the earth. Climate

38

change includes global warming and everything else affected by increasing

greenhouse gases (GHG) level (IPCC, 2007). When the average weather of a

specific region is altered between two different time periods, then climate

change is said to have occurred (Peterson, 2009).

Climate change usually occurs when there is an alteration in the total

amount of the sun's energy absorbed by the earth's atmosphere and surface. It

also happens when there is a change in the amount of heat energy from the

earth's surface and atmosphere that escapes to space (the area beyond earth’s

atmosphere) over an extended period of time (National Snow and Ice Data

Center, NSIDC, n.d). An area's climate is generated by the average weather

system, which has five components: atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, land

surface, and biosphere (IPCC, 2011). Scientists actively work to understand past

and future climate by using observations and theoretical models. Borehole

temperature profiles, ice cores, floral and faunal records, glacial and periglacial

processes, stable isotope, sea level records and other sediment analyses provide

a climate record that spans the geological past (Kasting & Seifert, 2002).

Physically-based general circulation models are often used in theoretical

approaches to match past climate data, link causes and effects and make future

projections. In other words, what is observed now is compared with what was

known, to determine and understand the changing trend of climate. Recent data

are provided by the instrumental records, which indicate the activities that lead

39

to climate change. The activities that lead to climate change are broadly

classified into anthropogenic causes (human-activity-related) and natural causes

(earth’s natural activities which are the non-human-activity-related) (see

appendix F).

Anthropogenic Causes

Earth is heated up by the sun which serves as natural source of warmth

thus generates the needed temperature for life forms and other activities on the

planet (see appendix G). Most of the sun's energy (heat) passes through space to

reach and warm the atmosphere, earth's surface and oceans. The rate at which

energy is received from the sun and the rate at which it is lost to space

determine the equilibrium temperature and climate of the earth (IPCC, 2007). In

order to keep the atmosphere's energy budget in balance, the warmed earth

emits heat (energy) back to space as infrared radiation (Allison, 2009). As the

energy radiates upward, most is absorbed by existing clouds and molecules of

greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. The emitted energy goes in all

directions, some back towards the surface of the earth and some upwards, where

other molecules higher up absorb the energy (Allison, 2009). This process of

absorption and re-emission is repeated until finally, the energy escapes to the

area beyond earth’s atmosphere called space. This natural process is known as

the greenhouse effect which keeps earth’s energy budget in balance. In the era

leading to climate change, however, much of the energy is blocked and reflected

40

downwards, due to increased level of GHG causing earth’s surface temperatures

to become much warmer than usual (Allison, 2009). Without the abundance of

the GHG, earth's average temperature would be -19°C instead of +14°C

(National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA, 2011). Scientists

agree that the main cause of the current global warming trend is human’s

increase of the GHG in the atmosphere, which blocks heat from escaping to the

space (Oreskes, 2004; IPCC, 2007). Over the past centuries, the amount of

GHG in the atmosphere has been relatively stable until its concentrations began

to increase, due to the rising demand for energy caused by industrialization,

high population, changing land use, bush burning and human settlement patterns

(IPCC, 2011), which have resulted to climate change.

The earth's climate has changed throughout history but the current

warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is human-induced

and occurring at an unmatched rate for the past centuries (Gabriele, 1996). In its

recently released of the Fourth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change, a group of 1,300 independent scientific experts from

countries all over the world under the auspices of the United Nations, concluded

that there is more than 90% probability that human activities over the past

centuries have warmed planet earth (IPCC, 2007). The report also concluded

that there is a greater than 90% probability that human-produced GHG such as

41

CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxides (NOx) have caused much of the

observed increase in earth's temperature in the last century.

Over the last century, the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil, and the

increased level of deforestation has raised the concentration of atmospheric

gases such as CO2 (IPCC, 2007). Industrial and other steam engines are also

known to release CO2. The clearing of land for agriculture, industry, and other

human activities have also contributed to the abundance of GHG in the

atmosphere. Trees and other smaller plants replenish the atmosphere with

Oxygen (O2) while utilizing the available CO2 during photosynthesis (Osinem,

2005). During respiration, the trees and grasses inhale CO2 and exhales O2. This

process decreases the harmful level of CO2 in the atmosphere and increases the

supply of O2. The variation in the supply and utilization of CO2 affects the

percentage composition of gases in the GHG layer in the atmosphere. The GHG

layer primarily contains water vapour and other gases such as CO2, methane

(CH4), nitrous oxides (NOx) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) (IPCC, 2007). The

GHG layer at normal and balanced composition of gases acts as a thermal

blanket for the earth, absorbing heat and warming the surface to a life-

supporting average of 59oF (15°C), (United States Global Change Research

Program, USGCRP, 2009). Excess or deficient supply of any of the GHGs

affects the balance of the GHG layer. The GHGs when in excess supply in the

GHG layer block heat from escaping from the earth’s atmosphere into space.

The excess long-lived GHGs which remain semi-permanent in the atmosphere,

42

and do not respond physically or chemically to changes in temperature, are

described as "forcing" climate change whereas gases, such as water vapour,

which respond physically or chemically to changes in temperature are known as

"feedbacks" (Lockwood, 2009).

Human and natural factors that can cause climate change are called

‘climate forcings', since they push, or ‘force' the climate to shift to new values.

When ranked by their direct contribution to the greenhouse effect, the most

important greenhouse gases are shown below:

Table 1

Major Greenhouse Gases

Compound Formula Contribution (%)

Water vapour and clouds H2O 36 – 72%

Carbon dioxide CO2 9 – 26%

Methane CH4 4 – 9%

Ozone O3 3 – 7%

This means that gases contributing to the greenhouse effect include: water

vapour, CO2, methane (CH4), ozone (O3), nitrous oxide (NOx), and others such

as halocarbons (Kiehl & Kevin, 1997).

Carbon iv oxide (CO2) which is a very important component of the

atmosphere, is released through natural processes such as respiration, volcanic

eruptions and through human activities such as deforestation, land use changes,

43

activities of combustion engines and burning of fossil fuels. It is reported that

these activities have increased atmospheric CO2 concentration by a third (1/3)

since the Industrial Revolution began (Naomi, 2004). This is one of the most

important long-lived "forcing" of climate change. The seven sources of CO2

from fossil fuel combustion are (with percentage contributions from 2000 to

2004):

Table 2

Fossil Fuel Combustion

Sources of fossil fuel combustion Contribution (%)

Liquid fuels (e.g., gasoline, fuel oil) 36%

Solid fuels (e.g., coal) 35%

Gaseous fuels (e.g., natural gas) 20%

Cement production 3 %

Flaring gas industrially and at wells < 1%

Non-fuel hydrocarbons < 1%

International bunker fuels of transport 4 %

Source: World Economics (2003).

CO2 is relatively emitted from various fuels. One liter of gasoline, when

used as fuel, produces about 2.32 kg (about 1300 liters or 1.3 cm3) of CO2, a

greenhouse gas (Engber, 2006). Mass of CO2 emitted per quantity of energy for

various fuels is show below:

44

Table 3

Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Program

Fuel name CO2 emitted (lbs/106 Btu) CO2 emitted(g/106 J)

Natural gas 117 50.30

Liquefied petroleum gas 139 59.76

Propane 139 59.76

Aviation gasoline 153 65.78

Automobile gasoline 156 67.07

Kerosene 159 68.36

Fuel oil 161 69.22

Tires/tire derived fuel 189 81.26

Wood and wood waste 195 83.83

Coal (bituminous) 205 88.13

Coal (sub-bituminous) 213 91.57

Coal (lignite) 215 92.43

Petroleum coke 225 96.73

Coal (anthracite) 227 97.59

Source: Energy Information Administration (2010).

Methane is a hydrocarbon gas produced both through natural sources and

human activities, including the decomposition of wastes in landfills and

agriculture (especially rice cultivation), ruminant digestion and manure

management associated with domestic livestock. On a molecule-for-molecule

45

basis, methane is a far more active greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but is

much less abundant in the atmosphere (Naomi, 2004).

Nitrous oxides are powerful greenhouse gases produced during soil

cultivation practices, especially the use of commercial and organic fertilizers,

fossil fuel combustion, nitric acid production, and biomass burning.

Halocarbons is a family of chemicals that include chlorofluorocarbons

(CFCs, which damage the ozone layer), and other human-made chemicals that

contain chlorine and fluorine. CFCs are synthetic compounds of entirely

industrial origin used in a number of applications, but now largely regulated in

production and release to the atmosphere by international agreement for their

ability to contribute to destruction of the ozone layer (Naomi, 2004). Ozone

layer is a thin veil of ozone, 25 - 40 km above the earth’s surface, which

protects life below from the portion of the sun’s ultraviolent radiation that

otherwise damage forms of life (Osinem, 2005). The ozone veil is being

damaged by chemical released on the earth’s surface, notably CFC. Each 1%

reduction in ozone is likely to cause an increase of about 2% in ultraviolent rays

(Osinem, 2005). Examples of the atmospheric lifetime and Global Worming

Potential (GWP) for several greenhouse gases are given in the table below;

46

Table 4:

Atmospheric Lifetime and GWP Relative to CO2 at Different Time Horizon for

Various Greenhouse Gases

Gas name Chemical formula

Lifetime (years)

Global warming potential (GWP) for given time horizon

20-yr 100-yr 500-yr

Carbon dioxide CO2 About 100 1 1 1

Methane CH4 12 72 25 7.6

Nitrous oxide N2O 114 289 298 153

CFC-12 CCl2F2 100 11 000 10 900 5 200

HCFC-22 CHClF2 12 5 160 1 810 549

Tetrafluoromethane CF4 50 000 5 210 7 390 11 200

Hexafluoroethane C2F6 10 000 8 630 12 200 18 200

Sulfur hexafluoride SF6 3 200 16 300 22 800 32 600

Nitrogen trifluoride NF3 740 12 300 17 200 20 700

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007).

Most of the GHG are extremely effective at absorbing heat escaping from

the earth and keeping it trapped (Church & White, 2006). In other words, it

takes only small amounts of these gases to significantly change the properties of

the atmosphere. By comparison, the atmospheric GHGs that cause the earth's

natural greenhouse effect total less than 1% of the atmosphere while 99% of the

dry atmosphere consists of nitrogen and oxygen, which are relatively

transparent to sunlight and infrared energy, and have little effect on the flow of

47

sunlight and heat energy through the space (NASA, 2011). A little supply of

GHGs above normal has drastic effects as such small percentage caused an

increase of the earth's average surface temperature from -19°C to +14°C - a

difference of about 33°C (NASA, 2011). Because the required concentration of

greenhouse gases for normalcy in the atmosphere is so low, human emissions

can have a significant effect. For example, human emissions of CO2 currently

amount to roughly 28 billion metric tons per year (IPCC, 2011). In the next

century human emissions will increase the concentration of CO2 in the

atmosphere from about 0.03% currently to almost certainly 0.06% (doubling),

and possibly to 0.09% (tripling) (IPCC, 2011).

Currently, CO2 in the atmosphere is the highest it has been in the past

several million years (AMS, 2011). This corresponds to the increase during the

transition from a glacial to an interglacial period, which under natural

conditions, however, would have taken several thousand years. According to

Lemke (2006);

The natural climate system has produced interglacial periods and ice

ages, which caused dramatic changes, especially in the northern

hemisphere. However, during the past eight ice ages, the CO2

concentration was always about 180 CO2 ppmv (parts per million by

volume). In the warm periods, this value increased to 280 CO2 ppmv.

The duration of the transition between the CO2 minimum (180) in a

48

glacial period and the CO2 maximum (280) in an interglacial period

took about 20,000 years. Currently we live in an interglacial period and

CO2 ppmv measures as high as 385, which are due to anthropogenic

greenhouse gas emissions. This means that man have released to the

atmosphere as much CO2 as was recorded during the transition from a

glacial to interglacial period, what took 20,000 years to change, we have

now realized in only 200 years.

In summary, human activities which are regarded as the anthropogenic

causes of climate change include mainly, the release of CO2 and other

greenhouse gases through burning of fossil fuel, gas flaring, emissions from

combustion engines and other numerous industrial activities. Others include, but

not limited to, deforestation and clearing of land as well as urbanization.

Natural Causes

This refers to the non-anthropogenic (non-human-related) activities that

are of natural processes. Natural causes of climate change include variations in

ocean currents (which can alter the distribution of heat and precipitation),

orbital variation (alteration of the earth’s eccentric, angular and precession

axis), solar output (variation in sun’s intensity), plate tectonics (motion resulting

from deformation of rocks) and large eruptions of volcanoes, which can

sporadically increase the concentration of atmospheric particles, blocking out

more sunlight (NSIDC, n.d). Climate change can be attributed to variations in

49

earth’s orbiting which alters the amount of solar energy that the earth planet

receives (Lockwood, 2009). The energy from the sun is distributed around the

globe by wind, ocean currents, and other mechanisms to affect the climates of

different regions (Allison, 2009). Thus a change in the direction and speed of

global wind and ocean currents results in a variation in the pattern of

distribution of solar energy which directly alters average weather of earth,

particularly in regions surrounded by water bodies.

These causative activities natural and man-induced have resulted to

chemical and physical change of activities on earth, most of it is not favourable

to the environment and occupants of earth; plants and animals, and there effects

are visible on earth.

Ecological Effects of Climate Change

The environment can be likened to the biological system. A change in

any component of a biological system will cause a distortion in the entire

system. The ecological system behaves in a similar way, and climate is a

fundamental element of the environment, thus any alteration in climate will

consequently result to a change in the entire environment, affecting other

elements of the environment. Global climate change has already had observable

effects on the environment. Glaciers have shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes are

breaking up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted and trees are flowering

sooner (IPCC, 2007). Animal ranges refer to the confinement of species to an

50

area or area, due to suitable survivable climatic and environmental conditions.

The potential effects of global climate change include more frequent wildfires,

longer periods of drought in some regions and an increase in the number,

duration and intensity of tropical storms in opposite regions. Drought is a

condition that results when the average rainfall for an area drops far below the

normal amount for a long period of time (Osinem, 2005). Scientists predicted in

the past that the effects of climate change would bring about drought, loss of sea

ice, accelerated sea level rise and longer, more intense heat waves as well as

increasing temperature. Increasing temperature will lead to changes in many

aspects of weather, such as wind patterns, the amount and type of precipitation,

types and frequency of severe weather events (IPCC, 2011). The global sea

level could rise due to several factors including melting ice and glaciers. Rising

sea levels could damage coastal regions through flooding and erosion. The

climate of various regions could change too quickly for plant and animal species

found in that region to adjust and adjust. Harsh weather conditions, such as

increased heat waves and droughts, could also happen more often and more

severely. Such harsh changes could have far-reaching and unpredictable

environmental, social and economic consequences. Taken as a whole, the range

of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are

likely to be significant and to increase over time (IPCC, 2007). Basically, the

noticeable outcomes of climate change are as follows: shrinking ice sheets,

51

global temperature rise, acid rain, sea level rise, ocean warming and

acidification, among others.

Shrinking ice sheets, declining arctic sea ice and glacial retreat are the

recent happenings in the water bodies across the earth. The Greenland and

Antarctic ice sheets are decreasing in mass. Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic

km3 (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while

Antarctica lost about 152 cubic km3 (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and

2005 (NASA, 2011). Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has

declined rapidly over the last several decades as well as the disappearing snow-

cap of Mount Kilimanjaro, from space (Kwok & Rothrock, 2009; Polyak,

2009). Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world, including

those in Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa attributable to

rising global temperature (Polyak, 2009).

Global temperature has risen in recent times increasing with each decade.

The ten (10) warmest years in global meteorological history occurred in the past

decade, making 20th century the warmest globally in the last 600 years (NASA,

2011). Even as the 2000s witnessed a solar output decline resulting in an

unusually deep solar minimum from 2007-2009, surface temperatures continued

to increase causing the Greenland ice sheet and almost all mountain glaciers to

melt due to warming, such as those in the Alps (IPCC, 2011). As temperature

warms in different continents of the world, polar species may either move to

52

cooler habitats or die, altering the distribution (range) and density of animal

types in a region of natural existence. Species that are particularly

vulnerable include endangered species, coral reefs, and polar animals (Lemke,

2006). With 2°C of warming, dry-season precipitation is expected to decrease

by 20 percent in northern Africa, southern Europe, and western Australia, and

by 10 percent in the southwestern United States and Mexico, eastern South

America, and northern Africa by 2100 (IPCC, 2007).Warming has also caused

changes in the timing of spring events and the length of the growing season.

Higher temperature causes increased rate of evapouration, leading to change in

rainfall patterns and alteration of natural vegetation in various parts of the world

(IPCC, 2007). Meteorological data have shown that rainfall pattern in Nigeria

has changed in the past decades (Oladipo, 1995). The agricultural sector in

Nigeria is highly sensitive to rainfall especially in the Niger Delta where rain-

fed agriculture is mainly practiced. The Niger Delta lies predominantly in the

tropics having two seasons – the wet and dry seasons. The wet season occur

from May to September, while the dry season begins in October and ends in

April. Rising temperature in the region has brought about uncertainty in the

rainfall pattern, timing and amount (Awosika, 1995). Another problem

associated with regional temperature is the modification of existing biodiversity

and vegetation (Aweto, 2011). Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to

occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich sites, including the Great Barrier Reef

and Queensland Wet tropics (Hennessy, Fitzharris, Bates, Harvey, Howden,

53

Hughes & Warrick, 2007). A change in the type, distribution and coverage of

vegetation may occur as a result of alterations in usual regional temperature. In

America by mid-century, increases in temperature and decreases in soil

moisture are projected to cause savanna to gradually replace tropical forest in

eastern Amazon (Magrin, Gay, Cruz, Giménez, Moreno, Nagy & Villamizar,

2007). In drier regions, climate change will likely worsen drought, leading to

salinization (increased salt content) and desertification (forest and land

degradation) of agricultural land. Changes in natural ecosystems will likely

have detrimental effects on many organisms including migratory birds,

mammals, and higher predators while habitats in terrestrial and marine

ecosystems are projected to be at risk of invasive species due to changing

vegetation (Anisimov, Vaughan, Callaghan, Furgal, Marchant, Prowse &

Walsh, 2007). Invasion by non-native species is projected to increase with

higher temperatures, particularly in mid- and high-latitude islands. The changes

in vegetation will have great implication for biological productivity

consequently affecting biomass production (Nduka, Orisakwe, Ezenweke,

Ezenwa, Chendo, & Ezeabasil, 2008). Vegetation in regions like the Niger

Delta consists of extensive mangrove forests, brackish swamp forests, and

rainforests (Uyigue & Agho, 2007). The large expanses of mangrove forests in

the region are estimated to cover approximately 5,000 to 8,580km2 of land

(Nwilo & Olusegun, 2007). Change in vegetation in the region will lead to the

impoverishment of biodiversity and the death of various plant species presently

54

growing in the region. The regeneration rate of biomass may also decline

significantly affecting the amount of fuel wood available for the local users in

the region (Nduka et al, 2008). However, destruction of vegetation has also

being attributed to the occurrence of acid rain. Acid rain occurs when acid

forming substances are dissolved in atmospheric water molecules and falls as

rainfall with pH level much less than 7 (Osinem, 2005).

Figure 1

Linking Emitted Gases (SO2, Nox, NH3, CO2) to Soil and Water Acidification

Source: Last & Whathing, 1991; Efe, 2010.

Anthropogenic activities in the past centuries have resulted in the

emission of great volumes of acid forming gases into the atmosphere (Efe,

OUTPUTS

INPUTS SO2, NOx, NH3, CO2

Emissions

Aquatic biological effect

Water acidification

Soil acidification Terrestrial biological

Acid deposition

Wet + dry

55

2011). Some of these gases, notably Sulphur dioxide (SO2), Carbon oxides

(COx), Nitrogen oxides (NOx) and anhydrous Ammonia (NH3) from burning

fossil fuels, bush burning, fumes from cars and industrial engines and other

anthropogenic activities form the major source of acid deposition (Osinem,

2005). When the compounds are delivered by precipitation, such as rain and

snow, the process is called wet deposition, and when they are delivered as

gases, aerosols, and particles, the process is called dry deposition. In addition, in

high-elevation and coastal regions, they may be delivered through cloud or fog

water, called cloud deposition (Efe, 2011). The concept of acid rain was first

discussed by Robert Augus (1872) during the industrial revolution to mean any

acidic precipitation (such as rain and fog among others) or depositions that

occur downwards in areas where major emission of SO2, CO2, and NOx takes

place (Oden, 1976). Acid deposition can occur via natural sources like

volcanoes but it is mainly caused by the release of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen

oxide during fossil fuel combustion from man’s actvities. When these gases are

discharged into the atmosphere they react with the water, oxygen, and other

gases already present there to form sulfuric acid, ammonium nitrate, and nitric

acid. These acids are dispersed over large areas corresponding to wind patterns

and fall back to the ground as acid rain or other forms of precipitation. Acid rain

affects both natural and man-made environments (Mama & Osinem, 2007).

Aquatic settings are the most impacted by acid rainfall as acidic

precipitation falls directly into them while dry and wet deposition also runs off

56

of forests, fields, and roads and flow into lakes, rivers, and streams (Amanda,

2013). The author further stated that as the acidic liquids flow into larger water

bodies, it is diluted, but can accrue and lower the overall pH of the body over

time. Acid deposition also causes clay soils to release aluminum and

magnesium further lowering the pH in some areas (Osinem, 2005). If the pH of

a lake drops below 4.8, its plants and animals risk death and it is estimated that

around 50,000 lakes in the United States and Canada have a pH below normal

(about 5.3 for water) while several hundreds of these have a pH too low to

support any aquatic life (Amanda, 2013). Aside from aquatic bodies, acid

deposition can have significant effect on the forests. As acid rain falls on trees,

it can make them lose their leaves, damage their bark, and stunt their growth

(see appendices H and I). By damaging these parts of the tree, it makes them

vulnerable to disease, extreme weather, and insects. Acid falling on a forest’s

soil is also harmful because it disrupts soil nutrients, kills microorganisms in the

soil, and can sometimes cause a calcium deficiency (Mama & Osinem, 2007).

Damage to forests by acid rain is seen all over the world, but the most advanced

cases are in Eastern Europe; it is estimated that in Germany and Poland, half of

the forests are damaged, while 30% in Switzerland have been affected

(Amanda, 2013). Acid deposition also has an impact on architecture and art

because of its ability to corrode certain materials. As acid lands on buildings

especially those constructed with zinc (and limestone) it reacts with the

minerals (in the stones) and sometimes causing the roofing material to

57

disintegrate and wash away (Uyigue & Agho, 2007; Amanda, 2013). Acid

deposition can also corrode cars, railroad tracks, airplanes, steel bridges, and

pipes above and below ground (Amanda, 2013).

In Nigeria, acid rain has been observed especially in the industrial and

gas flaring regions of Niger Delta (Efe, 2010). The rising atmospheric

concentration of acid forming compounds in recent years have resulted in the

increased formation of carbonic and sulphoric acid which have been linked to

the occurrence of acid rain in Nigeria especially in the Niger Delta region (Efe,

2011). The frequent occurrence of acid rain in the region is attributed to the

industrial and gas flaring activities (Efe, 2006). The dominance of grasses and

shrubs in some part of the Niger Delta is an indication of loss of natural forest

which may be mainly due to acid rain and other factors. Example is the

confirmed occurrence of acid rain in 18 rural coastal communities of Delta State

(Efe, 2011). The author further observed a mean pH value of 6.4 in the open

atmosphere, whereas lower pH values of 5.0 – 5.3 were seen in roof catchments

of buildings in some coastal communities of the state, which the author

attributed to the proximity of the buildings to gas flare sites. The acidification of

surface and ground water in the western Niger Delta region is also attributed to

frequency of acid rain due to increased flare rates (Omoleomo, Samuel,

Kehinde, & Joseph, 2008). The acidified surface and underground water flows

to ocean leading to the ocean acidification.

58

Ocean acidification is another ecological occurrence due to climate

change. The term is used to describe the ongoing decrease in the ocean pH

caused by human emission of CO2 (Mama & Osinem, 2007). Since the

beginning of Industrial Revolution, acidity of surface ocean waters increased by

about 30% (Pmel, 2012). This increase is the result of humans emitting more

CO2 into the atmosphere which falls back to the earth as drops and is absorbed

into the oceans. The ocean absorbs approximately half of the produced CO2.

The amount of CO2 absorbed by the upper layer of the oceans, rose to about 2

billion tons per year as at 2000 (Sabine, 2004). CO2 dissolves in water (H2O) to

form carbonic acid (H2CO3). Acidification of the water body makes the ocean

corrosive and inhabitable to aquatic life thus increasing death rate and

displacement of aquatic species in the oceans. Warming of oceans has also been

noticed in recent time attributable to climate change. The oceans absorb much

of the increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean

showing warming of 0.3020F (degrees Fahrenheit) since 1969 (Levitus, 2009).

Warmer waters in the shallow oceans have contributed to the death of about a

quarter (1/4) of the world's coral reefs in the last decades (Lemke, 2006). Many

of the coral animals died after weakened by bleaching, a process tied to warmed

waters. The temperatures of large lakes world-wide have risen dramatically as a

result of increased global surface temperature (IPCC, 2007). The increasing

global temperature warms the oceans causing ice sheets to melt leading to sea

level rise.

59

Sea level rise have been noticed across the earth. Global sea level rose

about 17 cm (6.7 inches) in the last century (IPCC, 2007). The rate of increase

in the last decade, however, is nearly doubled to that of the last century due to

melting glacier ice and expansion of warmer seawater (Church & White, 2006).

Sea level may rise as much as 59 cm (23 inches) during the 21st century,

threatening coastal coral reefs, wetlands and coastal regions (IPCC, 2007). The

coastal regions all over the world are under continuous human pressure and

changing climate. Being a region of strong horizontal in-homogeneity (the

interface between land, sea and air) the local climate conditions are complex,

particularly sensitive and susceptible to alteration in sea level which leads to

coastal erosion and general flooding (Awosika, 1995; Osinem, 2005). Large

scale loss of ice and thermal expansion of sea water have very likely contributed

to the observed sea level rise, resulting to sea bank overflow and flooding in

coastal regions like the Niger Delta.

Niger Delta in Nigeria is a coastal region and is under threat of sea level

rise causing oceans to overflow resulting to flooding as observed in the 2012

flood in the region. Sea level rise and repeated ocean surges will not only

worsen the problems of coastal erosion that are already a menace in the Niger

Delta, the associated inundation will increase problems of floods, intrusion of

sea-water into fresh water sources and destruction of ecosystems. Destroyed

ecosystems result to destabilization of natural systems such as the mangrove,

60

affecting agriculture, fisheries and general livelihoods. Coastal erosion is the

most important environmental problem facing the Niger Delta (Uyigue & Agho,

2007). Flooding of low-lying areas has been observed. Coastal vegetation

especially the mangroves have been lost to coastal erosion (Awosika, 1995).

Calculations have shown that a 20cm rise in sea level will flood 3400 km2 of the

Nigerian coastland, thus Niger Delta could lose over 1500km2of land by the

year 2100 with a steady 1cm rise in sea level (Onofeghara, 1990). In all this, it

is predicted that Nigeria will lose about $9 billion as a result of sea level rise,

while at least 80% of the people of the Niger Delta will be displaced due to the

low level of the region (Uyigue & Agho, 2007). Coastal regions of the world are

already experiencing flooding due to rise in sea level. Secondary effect of sea

level rise in the region is increased general flooding. While climate change will

lead to increase aridity and desertification in northern Nigeria, it will lead to

increase in flooding in the southern part especially in the coastal regions

(Awosika, 1995). In February 2012, the Nigeria Meteorological Agency

(NIMET, 2012) gave out a warning about an impending situation due to some

unnoticed soil moisture saturation which could lead to serious flooding in 10

states of the federation within the rainy season months of August-October as a

result of rivers in the country overflowing their banks due to increased and

prolonged rainfall. In the report, NIMET (2012) forecasted that cities like Warri

in the Niger Delta region will have the highest length of rainfall season with 247

days and 2,649mm of rainfall within the duration starting 7th March to 8th

61

November, 2012. By the beginning of the month of September, the flood hazard

in states like Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Kogi, Niger and

Rivers states had increased to extreme stage (NEMA, 2012). The flood

submerged much of Delta and Bayelsa states, displacing about 350

communities. The flooding which began in September affected 18 out of the 25

Local Government Areas (LGA) in Delta state while 6 out of the 8 LGAs were

submerged by the flood in Bayelsa. The flood sacked places like Oleh, Ozoro,

Patani, Oyode, Irri, Oko, Amakom, Ndokwa, Ughelli, Isoko and many others in

Delta state. Over 7,705, 398 persons were affected in Niger Delta by the flood

between July 1, 2012 and October 31, 2012 (NEMA, 2012). Flood and erosion

remove top soil, destroy roads, affect fresh water resources and threaten lives

and properties.

Concept of Impact and Impact Studies

Impact refers to the difference made in an outcome (Championing

Volunteering and Civic Society, CVCS, 2013). It refers to observed deviation

from usual or normal outputs. Some use the term as a way of summing up all

the benefits or changes occurring after an event. Impact can also be understood

as a combination of all effects an event poses on the other and may be intended

as well as unintended effects, negative as well as positive changes, long-term

and short-term or interim outcome (CVCS, 2013). Impacts are usually resultants

of external factors/intervention enforcing a change from the conventional

62

proceedings or natural outcomes causing a new pathway of actions as shown

below:

Figure 2

Impact Diagram

In the figure 2 above, natural outcome proceeded from point A to B. But

with the external intervention at point C, a change occurred causing the

observed altered outcome at point D or E. Slope CBD or CBE reflects the

amount and nature of change in the observed outcome, this is referred to as the

impact and the direction of change, D or E, determines the nature of change;

positive or negative respectively. Measuring impact involves assessment or

evaluation study of the degree of observes changes over time after the causative

effect (Grossmann, 2005).

C

D

A

B

OUTCOME

Natural outcome of events without intervention

Observed

outcomes with

intervention

TIME

E

63

An impact study is a research done on a certain situation to determine if a

specific action would have or is having an effect on its environment or other

related issues (Ken & Bronwyn, 2013). Impact studies pull data from various

sources and often look at different aspects of the issue. In an environmental

impact study, for example, extensive research may be done before building a

road in a certain area. One of the steps may include determining how water

runoff may be affected and if there are any vulnerable streams around. Another

aspect could be a survey of plant and animal species in the area (Ken &

Bronwyn, 2013). Anyone found to be in danger could affect the project. This

demonstrates how thorough some of these studies can be. Another type of

impact study can also be used to judge a curriculum or educational program. For

example, the impact of the Head Start preschool program in the United States

was analyzed to determine if Head Start students do any better than students of

similar circumstances who do not have access to the same program. The results

may be used by Congress, or the Department of Education, to determine how

much funding such programs deserve in the future. In some cases, a project may

still continue despite what an impact study finds. In cases where the negative

impact can be mitigated by positive implications, there may be a net gain to the

area. In other cases, the impact study may indicate ways the negative effects can

be minimized. Although, not mainly part of an impact study, an action plan may

be developed based on its findings. This plan will seek to clear up any issues the

impact study found (Ken & Bronwyn, 2013).

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The different steps and potential methodologies of conducting impact

assessments or study include: appraisal of the expected effects (inherent to the

study logic), formulation of impact strategy –what is going to be measured,

formulation of impact methodology –how are the effects measured/assessed and

modalities of carrying out the impact assessment (Grossmann, 2005). The

author further explains each stage below;

Crucial for the execution of an impact study is to appraise the expected

effects the intervention has on the target group. Such an appraisal is based on

the inherent intervention logic as formulated during the design of the study.

Normally, each study has a set of expectations and objectives, which should be

causally linked to the various intervention activities. The appraisal involves a

thorough review of the objectives and expectations and how they should be met.

It is important to conduct such an appraisal for each area /country, as the same

effect can have various expectations and objectives in different contexts. The

information can be compiled in a short matrix that lists the expected objectives,

activities and outcomes. The second step in the impact assessment process is to

identify the purpose and strategy of the study. The core question is: what should

be measured? This step is closely linked to the appraisal, which indicates the

areas where the study is supposed to have impacts. Accordingly, the impact

measures should reflect the objectives of the study and also help to indicate

whether they have been met or not (evaluation). A number of methodologies

65

exist to conduct impact studies. The central concern of these approaches is the

issue of attributing study activities to observed impacts. These methodologies

refer to the “hard” impacts as such and not necessarily to other assessment

purpose (e.g. cost-effectiveness assessment or evaluations). In general, four

different methodologies can be identified for the attribution of impacts:

Experiments, Quasi-experiments, Non-experiments and Qualitative approaches

(such as field survey). The final step is to design and carry out the impact study.

First of all, it involves the strategic question whether the assessment/study

should be carried out on a continuous basis, on a regular basis or only once.

Conducting pure impact assessments are rather likely to be carried out on a

regular basis or once. Impact assessments based on before-after comparisons are

easier to conduct on a continuous basis, especially for interventions that have an

initial screening process in place.

Impact study, is an assessment that prepares evidence for decision-makers

on the advantages and disadvantages of events by measuring their potential

effects (European Commission, EC, 2009). In conducting impact study, some

questions are vital and inevitable such as; what is the nature and scale of the

problem, how is it evolving, and who is most affected by it?, what are the views

of the stakeholders concerned?, what objectives should be set to address the

problem?, what are the main options for reaching these objectives?, what are the

likely economic, social and environmental importance of the result?, how do the

66

main options compare in terms of effectiveness, efficiency and coherence in

solving the problems?, and how could future monitoring and evaluation be

organized? (EC, 2009). A correct answer to these questions forms the bases for

an impact study.

In a study by Bhusal (2009) on local peoples’ perceptions on climate

change, its impacts and adaptation measures in mid-mountain area of Nepal (a

case study from Kaski district) the objective was to determine the effects of

climate change (the intervening external factor) on natural and human systems

(natural outcomes). To determine the impact and perceived extent of change,

data on previous activities were collected and compared with current livelihood

activities in the district. Previous states of temperature, rainfall, ecological

events, quantity and quality of yield, poverty level and other items were

collected as secondary data, and compared with current values of primary date

from field survey to determine the perceived (observed) difference as a result of

climate change thus infer (extent of) impact. The analysis shows that 90%

respondents perceive that temperature has increased and 97% said they are

experiencing unpredictable rainfall patterns since last 10 years. Additionally,

more than 50% respondents explained that late start of monsoon, incidents of

drought has increased, hail storm occurs abnormally, wind flow pattern is

getting warmer, decreasing water sources, changes in flowering and fruiting

time, invasion of new weeds like Ageratina adenophora and Ageratum sp., and

67

reduction of some indigenous plants like Artemisia indica. The study found

some adaptation measures such as forest protection, utilization of marginal

lands by planting trees and grasses, crop diversifications in farming practices.

Depending on the consideration of adaptation, impact was distinguished into

potential and residual: potential impacts (all effects that may occur given a

projected change in climate, without considering adaptation) and residual

impacts (the effects of climate change that would occur after adaptation).

A study by Leon and Rota (2010) on impact of climate change on

fisheries and aquaculture in the developing world and opportunities for

adaptation aimed at comparing past fishing performance with current

performance to understand the change caused by climate. Fisheries and

aquaculture have contributed little to the causes of climate change but is among

the first sectors to feel its impacts. Some observed consequences included

falling productivity, species migration and extinction of localized species, as

well as conflict over use of scarce resources and increased risks associated with

more extreme climatic events such as hurricanes. Extended impact on

aquaculture (fish farming) include reduced water quality and availability,

increased disease incidence and damage to freshwater by salinization of

groundwater as well as high pond temperature multiplying death rate.

An impact study by Frank, Mader, Harrington and Hahn (2002) on

potential climate change effects on warm-season livestock production in the

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Great Plains, United States upheld the suggestions by some global climate

models (GCM) that, climate change will impact on economic viability of

livestock production systems in the area of the United States. Animal

production-response algorithms from research results were combined with

climatological data and GCM output to assess potential impacts. Detailed

analyses projected economic losses for livestock to increase in most areas

during the summer period. Increased ambient temperatures led to depressed

voluntary feed intake (VFI), reduced weight gains, and lowered milk

production. Animals are somewhat able to adapt to higher temperatures with

prolonged exposure but, production losses will occur in response to higher

temperature events.

Miguel and Koohafkan (2010) conducted a study on the impacts of

climate change on traditional family farming communities, and sited that small

farmers are among the most disadvantaged and vulnerable groups of climate

change in the developing world. Climate-related environmental stresses will

affect individual households differently compared to more market-oriented

farmers. The study predict that as climate change reduces crop yields, the effects

on the welfare of subsistence farming families may be quite severe, especially if

the subsistence component of productivity is reduced. Changes in quality and

quantity of production will affect the labour productivity of the farmer and

negatively influence his/her family welfare. Flooding incidence has increased

69

number of displaced persons globally, and destroying infrastructure in rural

prone settlements. Although the adverse effects of climate change are likely to

be borne disproportionately by the small farmers of the developing world, it is

the traditional farming systems with their high degree of biodiversity which are

best equipped to withstand the shocks of climatic extremes.

Agricultural Production in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

Although climate change is an inherently global issue, the impacts will

not be felt equally across the planet (see appendix E). Developed and

developing countries alike, are all experiencing the impact of climate change.

The Niger Delta region found in a developing country like Nigeria is

experiencing serious impacts of climate change on agriculture in the region. As

with most parts of Nigeria, agriculture is the dominant aspect of the rural

economy as farming assumes considerable importance in Niger Delta. The

region has been described as the richest wetland in Africa and the home of

numerous species of aquatic and terrestrial plants and animals. When climatic

patterns shift, the spatial distribution of croplands, animals’ habitats and fish

populations soon follows, significantly impacting agriculture and food

production (Ariel & Robert, 2011). Before the recent climate change in the

Niger Delta, the people engaged on utilization of the surplus natural resources

from their environment to make ends meet. They made their living from the

exploitation of the resources of their land, water and forest as animal and crop

70

farmers, fishermen and hunters. The economic activities of the people were

soon distorted as a result of the environmental degradation caused by climate

change and exploration and exploitation activities of multinational oil

companies (Akinro, Opeyemi & Ologunagba, 2008). The Niger Delta is highly

susceptible to adverse environmental changes occasioned by climate variation

because it is located in the coastal region of the world where the effects are

more felt (Uyigue & Agho, 2007). Climate change has been noted to affect the

rearing of animals, cultivation of crops, fish farming and fishing activities as

well as the farming families in all the regions of the world including the Niger

Delta.

Impacts of Climate Change on Animal production

Livestock production is potentially sensitive to climate change. Climate

affects animal production in four ways: livestock feed-grain availability and

price; impacts on livestock pastures and forage crop production and quality;

changes in the distribution of livestock diseases and pests; and the direct effects

of weather and extreme events on animal health, growth and reproduction

(Parry, Rosenzweig, Iglesias, Livermore & Fischer, 2004). The impact of

climate change on pastures and rangelands include deterioration of quality

subtropical grasses in temperate regions as a result of warmer temperatures and

less frost as a consequence, productivity of grazing livestock could be altered

(Osinem, 2005). The author further stated that alterations of temperature and

71

precipitation regimes results in a spread of disease and parasites into new

regions or produce an increase in the incidence of disease, which, in turn, would

reduce animal productivity and possibly increase animal mortality. Under high

temperature conditions, the inability of animals to dissipate environmental heat

results to heat stress especially during hot seasons. There is a range of thermal

conditions within which various animals are able to maintain a relatively stable

body temperature. Heat stress results from the animal’s inability to dissipate

sufficient heat to regulate body temperature (Osinem, 2005). Thus, an increase

in air temperature, such as that expected in different scenarios of climate

change, would directly affect animal’s performance by upsetting their heat

balance.

Figure 3: Schematic Representation of the Potential Mode of Action of

Inconvenient Thermal Environment on the Production Potential

and Product Quality of Livestock

Thermal environment

Hormonal changes

Feed intake Behavioral changes

Activity

Protein and fat accretion in animal products (meat, egg, milk)

Compromised nutrient and energy supply

Risk for animal health problems

Compromised product quality

Reduced production potential

Reduction in nutrient and energy digestibility

Shift in acid/base balance

during heat stress

Energy metabolism

Source: László, Veronika & Martin (2011).

72

Heat stress has a variety of detrimental effects on livestock, with

significant effects on milk production and reproduction in beef and dairy cows

(Valtorta & Maciel, 1998). In America, cattle for beef production has shown

large decrease in weight gain and milk quantity per cow, especially in the

South, forcing livestock producers to increase animal populations to counter the

per unit productivity losses under climate change. While production has shifted

to the major feed crop growing regions, such as the Midwest, as corn and

sorghum yields are decreasing in the Southern or drier traditional regions,

influencing animal range (Parry et al, 2004). Rising temperatures may further

increase these impacts. Heat stress was estimated to result in annual economic

losses in the United States of about $1.69 billion to $2.36 billion in 2000,

including $0.9-$1.5 billion for dairy, $370 million for the beef industry, $299-

$316 million for swine, and $128-$165 million for poultry (St-Pierre, Cobanov,

& Schnitkey, 2003). In any particular location, climate change may not mean

more animal pest, but introduction of new animal pest. In Europe, a northward

expansion of the European castor bean tick, which carries and transmits Lyme

disease, tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), and other diseases, has been reported in

Norway, and increasing environmental temperatures have permitted the ticks to

become established in larger geographic areas (Azar, Lindgren, Larson, &

Möllersten, 2006).

Given the natural rain forest vegetation of the Niger Delta, livestock

production in the region is relatively small compared to crop farming. Local

73

unimproved varieties of poultry are reared in rural regions under the free range

system. Chicken and other indigenous birds usually scavenge for food, feeding

on insects, food remnants thrown into dump sites behind houses and plant

materials. However, in large towns in the region, commercial poultry

production assumes considerable significance for the production of both meat

and eggs, to meet the requirements of the urban dwellers with higher levels of

income. Few goats and sheep and occasionally pigs are also kept in villages as a

side-line to crop farming. There is very little or no integration of livestock and

crop farming in the Niger Delta region, unlike in the drier savannah of northern

Nigeria where livestock are allowed to graze on farmlands during the off-farm

season and their droppings help to fertilize the soil (Aweto, 2011). The region is

a hunter and fishermen delight as such are the natural occupations of the native

people (Mayah, 2006). Climatic stress reduces feed, water intake, grazing time

and hence growth rate and productivity (Idowu, Ayoola, Opele & Ikenweiwe,

2011). Destruction of forests by resultants of climate change leads to loss of

habitats and sources of food for many wildlife species. Wildlife such as

elephant (Loxodonta africana), lion (Panthera leo), chimpanzee (Pan

troglodytes), leopard (Panthera pardus) and hippopotamus (Hippopotamus

amphibious) have become extinct while others like antelope (Bovidae family),

deer (Cervidae family), African rabbit (Poelagus marjorita) and grass cutters

(Thryonomys swinderlanus) have drastically declined in population, in the Niger

Delta (Aweto, 2011), largely due to deforestation and disappearance of

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biodiversity as climate changes. For domesticated animals, high temperature has

hindered livestock (sheep, goat, poultry and piggery) production through

retarded reproduction cycles, reduced meat and milk outputs, as well as their

grazing lands. Livestock mortalities (stock losses) have increased in poultry,

piggery and rodentary production systems as well as increases in diseases and

pests (including PPR, foot rot, mange, etc.) under the influence of climate

change which has cut investment profits in livestock production system (Idowu,

Ayoola, Opele & Ikenweiwe, 2011).

Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production

Crops need nutrients, water and heat to drive the photosynthetic process

and produce edible products. Clearly, water and heat are factors affected by

climate, but so are nutrients. Increased CO2 concentrations can be beneficial to

crop productivity; but changes in temperature and precipitation can have mixed

results, compounded by the high sensitivity of crops to extreme events such as

floods, wind storms and droughts, and seasonal factors such as periods of frost,

heat spells, and change in rainfall patterns (Daniel & Jay, 2011). Crops are often

more sensitive to averages than extreme temperature, as yields rise gradually up

to a temperature threshold, then collapse rapidly as temperatures increase above

the threshold (Frank & Elizabeth, 2013). It is obvious that most crops have an

optimum temperature, at which their yields per hectare are greater than either

higher or lower temperatures. Many crops are known to have temperature

75

thresholds, in some cases varying temperatures for different stages of growth.

Changes in climate could have significant impacts on crop productions around

the world. Negative impacts are expected for a number of crops in developing

countries by 2030 (Mama & Osinem, 2007).Temperature effects on cereals’

(like maize and wheat) and legumes’ (such as soybean) yields in the United

States are strongly asymmetric, with optimum temperatures of 29 - 32°C

resulting to rapid drops in yields for days(Spencer, 2007). According to the

author, in maize production, replacing 24 hours of the growing season at 29°C

with 24 hours at 40°C caused a 7% decline in yields. A very similar pattern was

found in a study of temperature effects on maize yields in Africa, with a

threshold of 30°C (Lobell, Burke, Tebaldi, Mastrandrea, Falcon, & Naylor,

2008). Under ordinary conditions, the effects of temperature above the threshold

on yields were similar to those found in the United States; under drought

conditions, yields declined faster with temperature increase. Limited production

output of wheat in northern India also suggests that temperature increase above

34°C becomes more harmful (Lobell et al. 2012). The author further stated that

by mid-century, under the current climate scenario, yields are projected to drop

by 17 to 22 % for maize, sorghum, millet, and groundnuts (peanuts) and by 8 %

for cassava. Among the crops most vulnerable to temperature increases are

millet, groundnut, and rapeseed in South Asia; sorghum in the Sahel; and maize

in southern Africa (Lobell et al. 2011).

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In southern Europe, higher temperature and drought will reduce water

availability for crop productivity while in Central and Eastern Europe, summer

precipitation is projected to decrease, causing higher water stress, decrease in

crop yield and frequency of peat land (Alcamo, Moreno, Nováky, Bindi,

Corobov, Devoy & Shvidenko, 2007). In small Islands of the world, cereal crop

yields are projected to decrease significantly and in America, the productivity of

some important crops such as maize, coffee and soybean (in temperate zones) is

projected to decrease, with adverse consequences for food security as a result of

climate change (Magrin et al, 2007). By the mid-21st century, crop yields are

estimated to decrease up to 30% in central and south Asia (Cruz et al, 2007),

and by 2030, increased drought and fire is projected to cause declines in

agricultural and forestry production over much of southern and eastern Australia

and parts of eastern New Zealand (Hennessy et al, 2007). Climate variability is

projected to severely compromise agricultural production, in many African

countries and regions. The greatest decreases in crop yields will likely occur in

dry and tropical regions in some African countries; yields from rain-fed

agriculture in drought years could decline by as much as 50% by 2020 (Mimura,

Nurse, McLean, Agard, Briguglio, Lefale & Sem, 2007). In Cameroon, crop

farming is a vital sector involving 80% of the country’s poor and contributing

about 30% to GDP, so changes in temperature and precipitation will seriously

damage the nation’s food production and the economy (Ernest & Cornelius,

2007). Heat stress, droughts, and flooding events will lead to reductions in crop

77

yields (Karl et al, 2009). Some crops and other plants may respond favourably

to increased atmospheric CO2, growing more vigorously and using water more

efficiently, at the same time, higher temperature and shifting climate patterns

may change the areas where crops grow best and affect the makeup of natural

plant communities (Karl et al, 2009). In Nigeria, crop production is expected to

be affected, drastically, due to climate influences leading to ecological

degradation. In Nigeria, as at 2011, agriculture contributed about 40.19% (crop;

35.78%, livestock; 2.58, forestry; 0.51%, fishing; 1.32%) to GDP and in 2012

its contribution declined to 39.19% (crop; 34.83%, livestock; 2.55, forestry;

0.50%, fishing; 1.31%) (NBS, 2013). From the above data, crop production

contribution dropped from 35.78% in 2011 to 34.83% in 2012 which can be

attributed to the ravaging impacts of climate change in the various cultivation

states in Niger Delta region and other states of the country.The Niger Delta

region in Nigeria, is the most naturally endowed part of the country; from

housing the oil and gas reserves that drive the nation’s economy to the vast

network of interwoven freshwater aquifers, extensive lowlands, tropical and

freshwater forests, and aquatic ecosystems; to its biodiversity with temperature,

sunlight, and rainfall in amount and combination that support cultivation and

bountiful harvests of cassava, melon, maize, yams, plantains, oil palm, rubber,

and timber.

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Given the annual rainfall that exceeds 2500mm, the main crops grown in

Niger Delta are yam (Dioscorea sp), cassava (Manihot esculenta), maize (Zea

mays), okra (Hibiscus esculentus), melon (Cucurbitaceous spp.), cocoyam

(Colocasia esculenta) and tree crops, especially rubber (Hevea brasiliensis),

palm oil (Elaeis guineensis) and occasionally plantain ( Musa sp.), bananas

(Musa sapientum ), pawpaw (Carica papaya), coconut (Cocos nucifera), orange

(Citrus sinensis), mango (Mangifera indica) avocado pear (Persea gratissima),

guava (Psidium guajava) which are usually cultivated around homes and small

gardens (Aweto, 2011). Yams, cassava, maize, okra and melon are usually

intercropped on cultivated plots which rarely exceed 0.5 hectare (Uyigue &

Agho, 2007). Usually, maize is the first crop to be harvested while cassava is

harvested last when intercropped. Vegetables cultivated in the region include

bitterleaf tree (Vernonia amygdalina), tomato (Solanum lycopersicum), pepper

(Piperaceae) and pumpkin (Telfairia occidentalis), usually for domestic

consumption.

Presently, the only tree that Niger Delta farmers selectively protect and

integrate into their farms is the oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) which is the main

source of vegetable oil in the forest zone of West Africa (Aweto, 2011). The oil

palm is selectively retained on the farm because of its economic importance, (a

practice which has led to the emergence of oil palm groves) and also features

prominently in cultivated plots of cassava, maize, cocoyam and other field crops

79

(Aweto, 2011). Crop farming in the region is highly dependent on rain as

irrigation is seldom practiced (Uyigue & Agho, 2007). Thus changes in the

rainfall pattern have greatly affected crop production in the region. Climate

change affects crop production in a number of ways, for example, uncertainties

and variation in the pattern of rainfall and floods, cause pest and diseases

migration in response to weather variation, while high temperatures smother

crops (Idowu, Ayoola, Opele & Ikenweiwe, 2011). Farmers in the region begin

cultivation at the end of the dry season, when the rain begins to fall gradually

(Akinro, Opeyemi, & Ologunagba, 2008). They plant their crops after the first

or second rain in the month of March, and sometime in April. After the first

rain, the rain falls periodically till the months of June/July (the peak of the rainy

season), when rain fall more or less continually. The predictable periodic

rainfall pattern before the peak in June enables farmers to cultivate various

crops. The crops, when planted are watered periodically by varying degree of

rainfall before the peak in June (Uyigue & Agho, 2007). But due to unpredicted

rainfall pattern, farmers who planted after the first or second rain ran into huge

loss as crops were smoothed when the rain was delayed beyond the usual

caused by climate changes. The varying degree of rainfall within the planting

period before the peak is necessary for the optimum performance of many crops

cultivated in the region. The crops were scorched without water (rainfall)

causing huge economic loss for the farmers (Uyigue & Agho, 2007). This was

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not the usual way, farmers were able to predict the rainfall pattern and they

knew precisely when to plant their crops.

Irregular and unpredictable rainfall and sunshine hours (albedo and

photoperiods) continue to take the toll on hitherto low-level harvests of cassava,

maize, melon and yam with at least 2.5% decline of harvests per annum (Idowu,

Ayoola, Opele & Ikenweiwe, 2011). Furthermore, Cocoa, cashew, oranges, oil

palm, rubber, production suffer severe setbacks under reduced photoperiods

with flower and fruit abortion trends that shot down annual yields by 5.5 metric

tons/ha. Pest and disease incidences which become varied and uncontrollable

under extreme weather events continue to cause decline in crop harvests. In the

year 2012’s flood, many hectares of farmland were submerged by flood,

damaging the crops grown in the region Flooded farm lands/wetlands expansion

caused loss of arable land for crops within the regions thus reduce root/tuber

crops harvest (cassava and yam) by at least 0.25 million metric per annum

(Idowu, Ayoola, Opele & Ikenweiwe, 2011). Crop production turned out very

low while germination after the flooding incidence was reduced as a result of

climate change in the region

Impacts of Climate Change on Fishing/Fish Farming

The world’s fisheries provide more than 2.6 billion people with at least

20% of their average annual per capita protein intake (FAO 2007). In the high

CO2 world, it is generally considered that ocean temperature will rise, currents

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will spin-up, acidification will occur, sea ice will decrease, area of oligotrophic

gyres will increase, and seasonality of biological productivity will change which

poses adverse effects on marine fish species include their reproduction,

ecological connectivity and biodiversity (Sumaila, & William, 2010). Other

changes in oceans, lakes and rivers impacting on aquatic ecosystems and fish

population include increased salinity, alteration in density and stratification, sea,

lake and river levels sedimentation brought about by climate-induced variation

in land use. In turn, these physical alterations have the potential of changing the

physiological, spawning and growth processes of aquatic lives such as fish,

affect primary (e.g. diatoms and phytoplankton) and secondary (e.g.

zooplankton) producers, distributions of fish (through permanent movement, or

changes to migration patterns), the abundance of fish (due to changes in primary

and secondary producers), phenology (e.g. timing of life-cycle evens such as

spawning), species and disease invasions and other food web impacts

(Ugboma, 2010). Climate change has affected fisheries through alterations in

potential catch due to shifts in species’ range and decline in primary prey

available to the species caused by acidification of the oceans from higher CO2

levels, loss of coral reefs as a result of ocean warming, and variations in ocean

biogeochemistry, such as oxygen levels (Sumaila & William, 2010). Shifting

distributions of fish have led to series of international disagreements and will

continue to have implications for fisheries management across international

water boundaries (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,

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UNFCCC, 2011). For example the Pacific oyster now dominates area of the

French Atlantic coast and the south coast of England, causing significant change

in the habitat structure and, hence, the nature of biogenic reefs in those areas.

Changes in species distributions will alter the distance fishermen need to travel

to catch their traditional target species, sometimes crossing international sea

boundaries. In United Kingdom (UK), at the North Sea, a large number of cold

water species (e.g. grey gurnard, cod, anglerfish, lemon sole and saithe) have

deepened their residential water depth on average by 5.5 m per decade while

some warm water species have moved to shallower depths, such as sole (7.6 m

per decade) and bib (6 m per decade) (Grossmann, 2005). The authors further

stated that changing temperature may affect migratory behavior with earlier

migration seen in western mackerel stocks, while flounders’ migration from

some south-west estuaries is delayed by warmer conditions. In 2010, total

landings of fish and shellfish in the UK was 606,295 tons; about 60% of

commercial marine fish is landed in Scotland, 30% in England, 5% in Northern

Ireland, 2% in Wales and less than 1% in the Channel Islands and the Isle of

Man, with over 30,000 people depending on fishing for their livelihoods and

higher figure in some remote coastal communities (Grossmann, 2005).

Alteration in fishing and fish farming practices as a result of climate change in

UK is predicted to be large and could lead to losses in gross fisheries revenues

of $10–31 billion by 2050 (UNFCCC, 2011). Increased sea level rise and storms

events leads to loss of fish stocks, and considerable economic impacts, by

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damaging fish farm cages. A total of 2.18 million fish escaped over a seven year

period from Scottish fish farms, of which 38 % escaped during a single storm

event in 2005 (UNFCCC, 2011). The escape of farmed fishes in storm events

could result in their hybridization with wild stocks. Storm damage can also lead

to the introduction of predators and disease into cages, leading to further loss of

stock. If climate change increases the frequency or intensity of storms, farm

cages will be more likely to get damaged, leading to greater economic losses. In

small Islands, deterioration in coastal conditions, such as beach erosion and

coral bleaching, has affected local resources such as fisheries, as well as the

value of tourism destinations (Mimura et al, 2007). The effect of drought leads

to streams, ponds and wells drying up causing a sharp decline in fish population

around the world (Osinem, 2005).

Among the varieties of agricultural practices is fish farming which is

predominant in the coastal states of Nigeria such as the Niger Delta region were

the people love and engage in fishing as a major occupation (Bene & Neiland,

2004). Nigeria’s fisheries (domestic production) profile include; artisanal

(coastal) fishing (80%), industrial coastal (trawl) fishing (10%), artisanal inland

fishing (6%) and aquaculture (4%) (Ayansanwo, 2003). Most of the fishery

activities therefore, occur in the coastal states of Nigeria that account for 960km

(shared by Akwa-Ibom and Cross River States (108 km), Bayelsa and River

States (390 km), Delta State (126 km), Lagos State (230 km), Ogun State (18

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km) and Ondo State (88 km)) of the coastline (Ayansanwo, 2003). Thus Niger

Delta accounts for 74.2% of the coastline of Nigeria. The brackish water in the

region is home for several species of aquatic animals like fish as well as

favourable breeding sites for several migratory others (Awosika, 1995). An

estimated 50% of fishes consumed in Nigeria come from the Niger Delta region

(Uyigue & Agho, 2007). Aquaculture is an important aspect of agriculture in the

Niger Delta region as the trend to move from capture to culture fisheries is

gaining more ground. Over 75% of the 30 million inhabitants of the Niger Delta

region live along the coastal area and survive mainly on fishing (Aletan,

Martins & Idowu, 2011). The most commonly reared fish species are Tilapia

species, Hetebranchus species; Clarias sp. and Heterotis sp. (Agwu, 2006).

Other aquatic animals found in the region include crayfish (crustaceans),

periwinkle (Littorina littorea) and snails (mostly, Achatina fulica). Projected

reductions in water flows and increases in sea level may negatively affect water

quality and fish species in the region. This is expected to affect the food supply

for communities that depend on these resources especially, the fishermen in the

region whose occupation is mainly fishing. Adverse effect of sea level rise in

the Niger Delta has increased salinity of both surface and underground water

due to the intrusion of sea water which will lead to the death of aquatic plants

and animals that cannot tolerate high salinity (Uyigue & Agho, 2007). The

salination of the brackish waters in the region has been greatly affected by

flooding and sea water intrusion leading to lose of indigenous aquatic species

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(Awosika, 1995). Sea water intrusion could have serious impact on food

security in the region as it affects the coastal agriculture. Temperature rise have

increased algal blooms in lakes, favouring invasive species, increasing

stratification and lower lake levels (Lemke, 2006). Other effects are the flooding

of fish ponds especially those sited in wet or dried farmland near rivers and

increased pond temperature resulting to high death rate in cultivated fishes in

the region (Idowu et al, 2011). Acid rain, occurring as climate changes in

known to be a major cause of aquatic dysfunction, even in the region.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Farmer and the Farming Family

The wellbeing of the farmer and his farming families is as important as

the production process and the agricultural produce, and climate change affects

not just these produces but the farming families and the environment they dwell,

leading to decline in performance thus reduced yields. Drought, floods, severe

weather and other effects of climate change have begun to threaten communities

in many parts of the world. Farmers need access to weather and market

information to make decisions, especially as climate change alters historical

patterns (United States Agency for International Development, USAID, 2012).

Sea level rise is projected to increase risk of flooding, displacement of people,

salinization of drinking water resources, and coastal erosion in low-lying

regions while changes in precipitation patterns and the melting of glaciers are

projected to significantly affect water availability for human consumption,

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agriculture, and energy generation in southern America (Magrin et al, 2007).

People have always moved from place to place in search of greater opportunity;

however climate change is likely to trigger larger and more complex waves of

human migration due to altered source of livelihood. Disruption of ecosystem-

dependent-livelihoods will likely remain a leading driver of long-term

migration. Estimates of future “climate migrants” range from 200 million to 1

billion by 2050 (Myers, 2005). Sickness and death due to diseases such as

diarrheal are projected to increase in East, South, and Southeast Asia as a result

of expected alteration in the hydrological cycle and decrease in freshwater

availability particularly in large river basins associated with climate change

(Cruz et al, 2007). Increased flooding from the sea and, in some cases, from

rivers, threatens coastal areas, especially heavily populated delta regions in

South, East, and Southeast Asia (Cruz et al, 2007). Drought, floods, severe

weather and other effects of climate change have begun to threaten communities

in many parts of the world. Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to

climate change because of multiple existing stress and low adaptive capacity.

Sea level rise is projected to worsen inundation, storm surge, erosion, and other

coastal hazards in the continent. These impacts would threaten vital

infrastructure, settlements, and facilities that support the livelihood of isolated

communities (Mimura et al, 2007). In many African countries, other factors

already threaten human health, such as malaria may increase due to climate

change as varying weather condition favours the proliferation of carrier agents

87

(Boko, Niang, Nyong, Vogel, Githeko, Medany & Yanda, 2007). By 2020,

between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased

water stress and by 2050, between 350 million and 600 million people in Africa

are projected to experience increased water stress due to climate change (Boko

et al, 2007).

Niger Delta is recognized as being vulnerable to climate change due to its

low-lying area. The salinization of underground water leads to shortage of

underground fresh water which the inhabitants of the region (mostly farmers)

depend on as their main source of water for drinking and for other domestic use

(Awosika, 1995). Other impact of sea level rise on the region is the emergence

of health-related hazards for the farmer and his family. Rise in temperature and

humidity increases pest and disease and the risk of invasion as well as other

natural disasters like floods, ocean and storm surges, which not only damage

sources of livelihood but also causes harm to farmland, post-harvest activities,

life and property (Idowu et al, 2011). The resultant natural disasters such as

flood, bush fires, ocean surges and landslides cause economic losses,

population displacements, communal crises, forced migrations (promoting

ecological refugees), and widespread soil erosion effects. Extreme storm events

are likely to increase failure of floodplain protection as well as damage urban

drainage and sewage system (Apata, 2010). More heat waves may cause

discomfort for the farming family and also leads to electricity blackouts (Boko

et al, 2007). Climate change is increasingly stressing coastal communities in the

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region, worsening the existing strains of development and pollution. Though

some farming families in the region still engaged in farming and fishing, they

work more with little in return. Their fishing and fish farming have been

impaired in recent times by the deplorable environment as a result of climate

change (Uyigue & Agho, 2007). Because of the degradation of the environment,

the local farmer can no longer engage in sustainable fish farming and/or fishing

leading to risen poverty level in the region.

Many people in the Niger Delta whose source of livelihood once

depended on natural sectors such as, farming and fishing are now changing their

means of livelihood. Change in occupation will have adverse impacts on the

agricultural sector in the region. Continued degradation of land and water as a

result of climate change in the region will affect the major agricultural produce

in the region, thus increasing hardship for the farmer and his family. Settlements

in the coastal region have been uprooted by coastal erosion (Uyigue & Agho,

2007). Coastal erosion poses serious problem for the economic activities in the

region especially natural sectors such as crop farming and fisheries. Apart from

coastal erosion, flood in general has impacted negatively the livelihood of many

communities in the region. The National Emergency Management Agency

(NEMA) described the 2012 flood incident as the worst flooding to hit the

country in over 50 years. From the coastal areas of Bayelsa, Cross Rivers, Delta

and Rivers states to the hinterlands in Oguta in Imo State, the unprecedented

flood left in its wake a national disaster that has rendered millions homeless

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with several deaths recorded (Ahaoma, 2012). The flood which was at a level

over seven feet (7ft) submerged most farmlands and houses in the region with

only their roofs visible (see appendix J and K). Most of those affected were

indigent and had occupations ranging from crop and animal farming to fishing

of which River Niger was their major source of fishing livelihood. The costs of

cultivation have also increased with changing environmental trends. More

physical labour is needed to prepare the farmland for good yield and all these

are occurring as a result of climate alteration in the region.

The capacity to adapt can influence how climate change affects

individuals, communities, regions, countries, and the global population. Regions

which are already dry today will become even drier while wet ones will receive

even more rain, according to the climate scenarios (Lemke, 2006). All parts of

the earth will be affected by climate change, but the degree and nature of

impacts resulting from the phenomenon will differ from region to region and

will depend on the capacity of the different regions to cope with the changes.

Adaptation Strategies for Coping with the Existing Impacts of Climate

Change on Agricultural Production in the Niger Delta Region

Developed and developing countries are working together to find

solutions to climate change, as the impacts will not be felt equally across the

planet. Impacts are likely to differ in both magnitude and nature in different

continents, countries, and regions, thus adaptation practices required for coping

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differs with level and nature vulnerabilities (IPCC, 2007). In order to address

the resulting impacts of climate change, adaption practices should lay emphasis

on community interest to encourage sustainable development. It is suggested

that adaptation strategies will be more successful if they are identified and

developed by local users because they are likely to be consistent with local

priorities, norms, goals, and institutions (Newton, Paci & Ogden, 2005).

Community-based adaptation has become an important term in the climate

change debate (Uyigue & Agho, 2007). It recognizes the fact that environmental

knowledge and resilience to climate change lie within societies and cultures

(IPCC, 2001). Furthermore, an understanding of how communities cope with

environmental changes is important to develop community-based adaptation

projects. The goal of community-based adaptation project is to increase the

climate change resilience of communities by enhancing their capacity to cope

with less predictable rainfall patterns, more frequent droughts, stronger heat

wave, different diseases and weather hazards of unprecedented intensity (IPCC,

2001). Staying informed about climate change, and supporting efforts to slow

its progress are things everyone can do. Our climate is already changing because

of the existing build-up of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, so we

must be prepared to adapt to those changes. While action now to reduce

emissions is critical, the existing build-up of GHG concentrations means that

some climate change in the coming decades is inevitable and planning must

start now on adapting our economy and society to these changes.

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Adaptation is an understanding of how individuals, groups and natural

systems prepare for and respond to changes in climate or their environment to

reduce vulnerability (IPCC, 2001). Adaptation is the adjustment in natural or

human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects,

which moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities (IPCC, 2007). Climate

change adaptation in this study involves taking action to minimize the impacts

of continued weather variation while exploring new opportunities that may be

beneficial. The type of adaptation measures adopted will depend on the nature

and extent of impact on particular regions and economic sectors. Increasing

capacity to adapt reduces vulnerability to the effects of climate change.

However, planning for adaptive responses is urgent. The quick response will

lessen some of the environmental, economic and social costs of climate change.

It means that adaption in any event is necessary. The potential to adjust in order

to minimize negative impact and maximize any benefits from changes in

climate is known as adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2001).

A successful adaptation can reduce vulnerability by building on and

strengthening existing coping strategies. To adapt to climate change in crop

farming, approaches such as adjusting planting and harvest dates, changing

varieties grown, increasing water utilization, fertilizer, herbicide, pesticide use,

changing crop species and adopting to irrigated farming as well as enhancing

drainage systems, are good practices to improve production (Wolfe, 2007).

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Changes in land-use and changes in crop and livestock management practices

will have to take place, such as (a) change in cultivated land area, (b) change in

crop types, (c) growing crop species or varieties with higher thermal

requirements or those that are tolerant to drought and floods, (d) change in crop

location, (e) intensive and extensive use of irrigation water and improved

fertilizer use efficiency to counter the effects of droughts, periodic water stress

and low soil fertility conditions, (f) control of insect pests and diseases

associated with floods and droughts, (g) improvements in soil management

practices to reduce surface runoff and soil erosion (h) establishment and

creation of food grain reserves at farm and community levels for safe-keeping

and storage of harvested produce, and (i) diversifying species and intercropping

crops with trees to benefit from improved micro-climate and tree products and

services (Chakeredza, Temu, Yaye, Mukingwa & Saka, 2009). Others include

diversifying into multiple and mixed crop-livestock systems, switching from

crops to livestock farming, cereal/legume intercropping, switching from rain-fed

to irrigated farming and making ridges across farms (Apata, 2010). Some

suggested practices for different scenarios to reduce the impact of climate

change on agriculture are discussed below:

Coping with Changes in Rainfall Pattern

The changing climate has created uncertainty in the rainfall pattern

(timing and intensity of rainfall) in every part of Nigeria. The problem is

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observed to be severe in the rain forest zone of the Niger Delta where rain-fed

agriculture is mainly practiced. Because of the uncertainties in predicting the

rain, farmers may delay their time of planting. After the first or second rain,

they watch the rain for some time to ensure that rain falls regularly enough

before planting. The change in planting pattern is encouraged to avoid scorching

of young plants at the delay of rainfall. To strengthen this strategy for adapting

to variation in rainfall pattern, the government and other relevant authorities in

charge of climate data need to provide detailed record of rainfall from year to

year and pre-inform farmers for guided decision making on the time to start

planting with the rainfall data from successive year.

Using Improved Varieties/Breeds

Another way farmers in the region could overcome the problem of

climate change is by using fast-maturing varieties. Fast-maturing varieties of

some crops, such as maize with high yields, can be introduced and distributed to

farmers by State Ministry of Agriculture and Natural resources. The risk

involved in this strategy is that local varieties may be displaced by the

introduced varieties, though some farmers may still cultivate the local ones.

However, in future, the new hybrid varieties may completely replace the local

varieties; this may lead to the extinction of local ones (Uyigue & Agho, 2007).

Some crops have been noted to produce poorly in this climate change while

some do better in this prevailing condition. The improved varieties can adapt to

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drastic changes and still produce high and quality yield. Exotic breeds of fishes,

poultry, sheep and goat species can also be reared to encourage animal and fish

production in the region, even as climate changes.

The use of Mulching Material

Mulching materials serves to provide shade from direct sunlight. The use

of mulching materials (see appendix L and M) in the Niger Delta region where

the scorching effect of the sun is severe as a result of climate change can be

encouraged. Mulching materials (such as palm front and dead grasses) can be

used for all seedlings at the germination period. This is to reduce the amount of

direct sunlight that reaches the ground excessively heating up the soil and

reducing the number of germinated seedlings. The use of nursery for some

transplantable crops such as maize, melon and okra can be considered and

practiced. Though this practice increases the amount of physical labour for the

farmers, it is preferred to poor produce and decreased crop germination.

Likewise, the fish farmers in the region can use crop materials (mainly palm

fronts) to cover some portion of the top pond (either earthen or constructed).

This is also to reduce the amount of direct sunlight which heat up the pond

raising the temperature above required due to increased sunlight intensity. Since

the pond is an artificial habitat without a natural means of normalizing the water

temperature, the pond becomes too hot and unconducive for the fishes which

may lead to death of the domesticated fishes (mostly the fingerlings). Since

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climate change has resulted to increased heat stress, all methods to help animals

cope with or, at least, alleviate the impacts of heat stress could be useful to

enhance animal responses and performance. Some current practices to reduce

heat stress in animal farms, such as shades, sprinklers and ventilation will be

suitable for adapting to future climates.

Raising of Barriers/Dikes in Response to Sea Level Rise/Flood

Barriers in form of dikes are being constructed as a defense against flood

in most flood prone regions of the world (IPCC, 2007). There is the need to

raise dikes and guard against flooding of farmlands. A dike is an embankment

to prevent excessive water flow. It is built along the shore of a sea or lake or

beside a river to hold back the water and prevent flooding (Hornby, 2000). It is

a drainage channel or other artificial watercourse built to redirect water flow

towards an undesired direction. The farmers in the Niger Delta can construct

dikes usually with sand-filled-bags or concrete walls to redirect the flow of

runoff water and water from the over flowing surrounding sea and other water

bodies. In some areas the over flowing water can be redirected with the help of

the dikes (barriers) into constructed large ditches, which serves to conserve

water for artificial irrigation and watering the germinating seedlings at the

nursery during minute drought.

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Construction of Foot-bridges across road tracks/roads

The heavy impact of flood submerging must road tracks and roads in the

rural communities blocking out some sector of the community can be reduced

by constructing local bridges. Local bridges made of wood, sand bags or blocks

can be raised over the risen water level in flooded and flood prone areas.

Using Artificial Irrigation

A larger population of farmers in the Niger Delta region usually practice

rain fed agriculture, cultivating according to rainfall patterns. Artificial

irrigation can be encouraged especially during drought. Rain water can be

collected in large local ditches or well and later used for artificial supply of

water for animal, crop and fish farm, and can also be used by the farmers for

domestic purposes during water scarcity. The medium scale farmers can

employ the services of tanker supply of water to the farm or using a pumping

machine to draw water from the nearby water body. Large scale farmers can

sink a borehole system on the farm, while small scale neighbouring farmers can

contribute to sink a borehole system channelled through pipes to a reservoir at

individual farms, and used during drought to control the scorching and

dehydration of crops and animals in the farm.

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SCHEMA

Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production

Agricultural production is heavily dependent on climate and

environmental conditions which are usually modified by weather variation.

Climate change has resulted to ecological problems such as increased global

temperature, warming oceans leading to sea level rise, flooding and coastal

erosion, shift in rainfall pattern, acid rain causing ocean acidification. These

ecological effects impact directly on animal and crop production, fishing and

fish farming as well as the farmer and his family. Appropriate coping strategies

will help to improve agricultural production.

Climate Change

Agricultural Production

Ecological Effects

Impacts

Coping

Strategies

Flooding/

Coastal

erosion

Increased

Global

Temperature

Animal

production

Warming of

Ocean/Sea

level rise

Acid rain/

Ocean

Acidification

Change

in rainfall

pattern

Crop

production

Fishing/fish

Farming

Farming

Families

Imp

rov

ed

98

Theoretical Framework

This study adopted the following theories;

1. Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory

2. Planetary Processes Theory

3. Ecological Systems Theory.

The anthropogenic global warming theory explains the contribution of

man and his activities to climate change. While the planetary processes theory

explains the contribution of natural activities to climate change. The ecological

systems theory explains the interactions between man and his environment and,

the resulting change of behavior towards noticeable deviations in his

environment.

Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory

The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory of climate change as

propounded by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United

Nations (2007) states that, man and his activities is the sole cause of the recent

climate change. The theory contends that human emissions of greenhouse gases

(principally CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide), industrialization and

development, burning of fossil fuel and coal, gas flaring, jet contrails, irrigation

of deserts and deforestation are causing catastrophic rise in global temperatures.

The mechanism whereby this happens is called the enhanced greenhouse effect.

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Energy from the sun travels through space and reaches earth. According to the

theory, the earth’s atmosphere being transparent, allows free passage of the

sun’s ray to reach the planet’s surface where some of it is absorbed and others

reflected back as heat. Certain gases in the atmosphere, called “greenhouse

gases,” absorb the reflected radiation, resulting to warmer atmosphere.

The theory further indicated that water vapour is the major greenhouse

gas, responsible for about 36% to 90% of the greenhouse effect, followed by

CO2 (<1 to 26%), methane (4 to 9%) and ozone (3 to 7%). These estimates are

the subject of much dispute among scientists, hence their wide ranges. During

the past century, human activities such as burning of wood and fossil fuels and

cutting down or burning of forests are thought to have increased the

concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere by approximately 50%. Continued

burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, the theory postulates doubled the

amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Earth’s climate responds to several other types of external influences,

such as variation in solar radiation and in the planet’s orbiting, but these

“forcings,” according to the proponents of AGW, cannot explain the rise in

earth’s temperature over the past three decades. The forcing caused directly by

man-made greenhouse gases is also small, but the AGW theory posits that

positive feedbacks increase the effects of these gases between two- and four-

fold. A small increase in temperature causes more evaporation, which places

more water vapour in the atmosphere, causing more warming, less ice and snow

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cover, more exposed ground and open water thus increased absorption of solar

radiation.

The AGW theory believe that man-made CO2 is responsible for floods,

droughts, severe weather, crop failures, species extinctions, spread of diseases,

ocean coral bleaching, famines, and literally hundreds of other catastrophes. All

these disasters will become more frequent and more severe as temperature

continues to rise due to increased GHGs and water vapour. Nothing less than

large and rapid reductions in human emissions of greenhouse gases will save the

planet from these catastrophic events.

Planetary Processes Theory

This theory as propounded by Milankovic (1941) and modified by Gray

(2009) holds that, climate change is as a result of natural processes which take

place within and outside the earth without man’s influence. This theory

postulates that bio-thermostat, ocean currents, and planetary motion in addition

to solar variability through gradual processes result to climate change over

prolong time. The theory explains that bio-thermostatic processes involving the

negative feedbacks from biological and chemical progressions entirely offset

positive feedbacks by rising CO2. These processes act as a “global bio-

thermostat” keeping temperatures in equilibrium. Such bio-thermostatic

processes as indicated by Planetary Processes Theory (PPT) include planetary

motion, solar variability and ocean current processes.

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The ocean current process explains that global temperature variations

over decades were due to the slowing-down of the ocean’s Thermohaline

Circulation (THC). THC refers to a part of the large-scale ocean movement that

is driven by global density gradients, created by surface heat and freshwater

fluxes. The term “thermohaline” is derived from thermo- referring to

temperature and -haline referring to salt content, factors which together

determine the density of sea water. Wind-driven surface currents (such as the

Gulf Stream) travel polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, cooling en

route, and eventually sinking at high latitudes (forming North Atlantic Deep

Water). This dense water then flows into the ocean basins. When the THC is

relatively weak (as it was during the periods 1910–1940 and 1970–1994), the

earth-system typically has less evaporation, cooling and deep ocean upwelling

of water, during which energy accumulates in the ocean’s upper mixed layer

over a period of a decade or two, after which the global ocean begins to warm.

The warmed oceans results in increased global temperature thus ice melting,

change in precipitation, sea level rise leading to general flooding and coastal

erosion. Proponents of the PPT further attribute the change in climate to the

movement and rotation of the earth. The earth, like every other planet, orbits in

the galaxy with the sun at one point or the other. The orbiting process of the

earth is referred to as planetary motion process.

Another component of the PPT is the orbital motion and solar variability.

The planetary/orbital motion process explains that, most or all of the warming

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of the later part of the 20th century is due to natural gravitational and magnetic

oscillations of the solar system induced by the planet’s movement through

space. The position of the earth relative to the sun determines the amount of

solar energy to reach the surface. The closer the earth is to the sun, the higher

the solar energy thus increased surface heat which influences the global

temperature. These relative positions modulate solar variations and/or other

extraterrestrial influences on the earth, which then drive climate change. Solar

variability process explains that the sun accounts for most or all of the warming

in the late 20th century and will determine climate in the 21st century regardless

of man-made greenhouse gas emissions. Changes in the brightness of the sun

are caused by sunspots – bursts of energetic particles and radiation – that vary in

frequency in cycles of roughly 11, 87, and 210 years. These cycles cause

changes in the amount of electromagnetic radiation – also called “solar wind” –

that reaches the earth and its atmosphere, which in turn affects earth’s climate.

In summary, the planetary processes theory (PPT) posits that these naturally

occurring progressions combined influence the climatic makeup of the earth

over a long period of time thereby leading to climate change.

The anthropogenic global warming theory (AWG) and the planetary

processes theory (PPT) of climate change are unique and relate to this study as

they distinguishably explains the various causes of climate change, separating

between human and natural causes. These theories aided this research in

understanding the various causes of climate change and its impacts so as to

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proffer solution on adaptation strategies that could be utilized by the extension

workers and the local farmer, to improve agricultural production despite the

variations.

Ecological System Theory

This theory focuses on how persons interact with their environment. The

theory was propounded by Urie Bronfenbrenner (1979) in his publication titled

the Ecology of Human Development. Rationale for the ecological system theory

is based on the relationship between human behavior and his environment and is

presented as follows;

Persons are in continual transaction with their environment; Environment

affects behavior; Understanding the changes in the environment is a better way

of adapting to the environmental changes; Systems (components of the

environment) or subsystems are interrelated parts constituting an ordered whole

(entire environment); Each subsystem impacts on all other parts and whole

system; Systems can have closed or open boundaries; Systems always tend

toward equilibrium.

Some practical applications of the ecological system theory include;

Useful for developing holistic view of persons-in-environment; Enhances

understanding of interactions between micro-meso-macro levels of

organization; Enriches contextual understanding of behavior; Strengthen one

part of the system or subsystem to impact on the whole system.

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The major outcome of this theory is its usefulness in ecological

counseling, which offers an approach to the conceptualization of human issues

that, integrates personal and environmental changes through focusing on the

interactions between personal and environmental factors. This process attempts

to assist people in recreation of their lives, as in the case with various forms of

counseling (Bronfenbrenner, 1979).

This theory is useful in this research as it provide guides in understanding

the adaptive behavior of farmers and other individuals in agriculture.

Understanding the change in behavior in response to alterations in environment

is a necessary tool in proposing suitable agricultural practices and policies to

conform to existing impacts of climate change. Furthermore, this theory is

useful to this research in implementing the adaptation measures needed for

farmers to survive and continue cultivating even as climate changes.

Related Empirical Studies

A study carried out by Thaddeus, Chukwudumebi, Nnaemeka and

Victoria (2011) on climate change awareness and adaptation in the Niger Delta

region of Nigeria adopted the survey research design and was guided by 4

research questions and 2 hypotheses. The population comprised of farmers

estimated to be 7,814,858. Multistage (random) sampling technique was used.

Three states – Cross Rivers, Delta and Rivers were randomly selected from the

nine Niger Delta states for the study. A total of 400 farmers constituted the

105

sample size for the study while questionnaire and interview schedule were used

to collect data. Percentage, mean score, standard deviation and factor analysis

with varimax rotation were used in data analysis, the results were presented as

tables, figures and charts. Findings of the study revealed that institutional

problems, government failures and resistance to change are the major

constraints to adaptation strategies. Results of the study further revealed that

(81.0%) of the total number of respondents in the study did not know of the

existence of a bill on climate change in the National Assembly. The study

recommended that closer interaction of the lawmakers with their constituents

such as engaging in Town Hall Meetings and regular communication of

activities of the Climate Change Committees in the Senate and House of

Representatives. Furthermore, the Nigerian legislature should make deliberate

efforts at sensitizing the Nigerian public of activities of its Committees on

Climate Change. This study, like the current study, focuses on climate change

and agricultural production but differs as emphasis is placed only on awareness

and adaptation policies.

A study by Ernest and Cornelius (2007) on the economic impact of

climate change on agriculture in Cameroon, adopted descriptive survey research

design and had 4 research questions and 3 hypotheses. The population for the

study was made up of major farm owners in the country. Random sampling

technique was used to obtain sample size of 800 farm owners. Data was

106

obtained using structured questionnaire. The study employed Ricardian cross-

sectional approach to measure the relationship between climate and the net

revenue from crops. Findings of the study were that; net revenue is regressed on

climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. Further, net revenues fall as

precipitation decreases or temperatures increase across all the surveyed farms.

The study reaffirms that agriculture in Cameroon is often limited by seasonality

and the availability of moisture. Although other physical factors, such as soil

and relief, have important influence on agriculture, climate remains the

dominant influence on the variety of crops cultivated and the type of agriculture

practiced. The study is similar to the present as both aims at determining the

consequence of climate change on agriculture but differ in scope and study area

as the former majored on crop production only and was conducted in another

geographical location.

Adesiji, Baba and Tyabo (2011) carried out a study on the effects of

climate change on poultry production in Ondo state, Nigeria. The study adopted

descriptive research design and had 2 research questions and 2 hypotheses. The

population was made up all poultry farmers in the state. Simple random

sampling technic was used to draw sample of 83 farmers across the state. A

structured questionnaire and interview guide were used to elicit relevant

information in line with the objectives of the study. Descriptive and inferential

statistical tools were used for data analysis. Findings revealed that majority

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(93.3%) of the respondents are aware of climate change, 78%, 98.8% and 86.7%

of the respondents agreed that temperature fluctuation, increased in sunshine

intensity and global warming has negative effects on poultry production, 72.4%

of the respondents agreed that prices of feed grains are usually high in hot and

dry seasons which may affect cost of production and number of birds to raise

for egg and meat production in the farm, 73.5% of the respondents agreed that

climate change has effect on feed grain availability, this implies that high

temperature and low rainfall are climatic factors that affect general grain

harvest, their supply to the market and ultimately cost of poultry production.

The findings further revealed that 94% of the respondents agreed that climate

change affects egg and meat production pattern and 95.2% of the respondents

agreed that most climatic conditions encouraged the distribution and

development of diseases. Recommendations of the study include that extension

agents and other development agencies need to educate poultry farmers about

the effects posed by climate change on poultry production and intensify

awareness campaign to poultry farmers on how to reduce the effects of climate

change on poultry production. This study relates to the current, as both are

focused on the impacts of climate change on agriculture but differs in scope and

area of study.

Another study conducted by Joshua, Ajiboye, and Rashid (2011) on

impacts of climate change on rice production in Nigeria adopted the survey

108

research design. The survey covered 20 states in Nigeria, which were selected to

represent the major rice producing states in the country, namely: Adamawa,

Anambra, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Ebonyi, Edo, Ekiti, Jigawa, Kaduna,

Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Ondo, Ogun, Taraba Yobe and Zamfara

states. Six (6) research questions guided the study. The population for the study

comprised of all rice farmers in the county. A sample of 60 rice farmers was

randomly selected from each state, making a total of 1200 respondents. Data

were collected with the use of structured questionnaire administered on the

sampled rice farmers. The study employed the Ricardian approach to test the

relative importance of climate normal (average long-term temperature and

precipitation) in explaining net revenue from Nigerian rice production under

irrigation and dry land conditions and used descriptive statistics to answer

research questions. Results from the study showed that increase in temperature

and decreased precipitation will reduce net revenue for dry land rice farms but

increase revenue for irrigated farms. The study recommended the use of

irrigation on dried regions or during drought in the coastal regions. This study is

similar to the current study as both investigates the impact of rising temperature

and precipitation brought about by climate change but differs in the limitation of

the study to only rice production.

Farauta, Egbule, Agwu, Idrisa and Onyekuru (2012) carried out a study

on farmers’ adaptation initiatives to the impact of climate change on agriculture

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in northern Nigeria. Descriptive survey research design was adopted for the

study. Three (3) specific objectives guided the study. The study ascertained the

innovative adaptive measures used by farmers in northern Nigeria to cushion

the harmful effects of climate change. The population comprise of all farmers in

the northern part of Nigeria with a sample size of 500 farmers, which were

selected using multistage random sampling technique. Rapid rural appraisal,

focus group discussions, and semi – structured interview schedule were used to

elicit information from the respondents. Simple percentages, mean scores and

standard deviation were used to achieve the stated objectives. The findings were

that 84% and 79% of the farmers are aware and knowledgeable of climate

change issues, respectively, while 81% of them noted that they had at various

times experienced climate change incidences. Farmers reported that factors

which informed them of climate change incidence were: unusual early rains

followed by weeks of dryness (M= 2.84), erratic rainfall pattern (M= 2.66),

drought (M=2.68), reduction in farm yields (M=2.68) and high rate of disease

incidence (M= 2.67). Adaptive measures used by the farmers in northern

Nigeria included: changes in planting dates (88.4%) and harvesting dates

(85.4%), multiple cropping (81.8%), intensive manure application (69.2%), shift

to different sites (56.8%) and use of wetland/river valley (fadama) for farming

(52.6%). The study concludes that there is need for government to make

concrete efforts to enact appropriate policies on climate change adaptation and

assist local farmers in the short and long term to improve their resilience to

110

climate change impact. This research work is similar to the current study as both

studied the impact of climate change on agriculture but different area of study.

A study by Jidauna, Dabi, and Dia (2012) on the effect of climate change

on crop production in selected settlements in the Sudano-Sahelian Region of

Nigeria adopted the descriptive survey research design. The study had 4

research questions and the population comprised of all crop farmers in the

region. Systematic sampling technique was used in choosing the settlements for

the research. The settlements used for the study were Kalalawa village in Kware

Local Government Area (LGA) of Sokoto state; Zangon Buhari in Bunkure

LGA of Kano state; and Chingowa in Magumeri LGA of Borno state. 50

respondents were randomly sampled from each settlement bring the sample size

to 150 crop farmers. Tools used for the generation of field data were

questionnaire and focus group discussion (FGD) while descriptive and

inferential statistical techniques were employed in the analysis of data. The

findings reveal that millet, sorghum, and beans appear to be the staple food

crop, which significantly vary within the area Most of the farm plots are owned

by the farmers. Rainfall both in terms of intensity and duration has been on a

decline, while temperature conditions have been on the increased. Among some

of the impacts of climate change are decline in crop yield which has attracted

the increased application of fertilizer, drying of water sources, abandoning of

farmlands, and migration. The recommendations are improve farming

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systems/practices, planting of trees, sinking of boreholes/water facilities,

Government assistance, and prayers to God as the way forward. This study, like

the current study, investigates the resultant effect of climate change on

agriculture but the former only focused crop production neglecting other

sections of agriculture such animal and fish production.

A research conducted by Ojutiku, Kolo and Egesie (2010) on the effect of

climate change on fishery development in Nigeria used Niger State as a case

study. The study adopted the survey research design with 3 research questions.

The population was made up of fishermen and environmentalist in some

selected communities in the state. The study covered the following fishing local

government area in Niger state: Borgu, Shiroro, Chanchaga, and Wushishi. 120

respondents were randomly sampled. Two types of structured questionnaires

were used in the study. The data obtained was analyzed using frequency

distribution table and percentage with the statistical package for social scientist

(S.P.S.S). The study indicate that majority of the fishing folks in the state are

mostly men with more number of years or experience and falls within the

working age range of the International Labour Organization (ILO). Result

obtained from fishermen with experience between 15 and above 20 years of

fishery experience showed that the quantity of fishes caught now ranges

between 1-5 fishes in a day compared to 15-20 fishes in the past ten years.

Findings of the study also showed that there is yearly drop in the overall catch

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of fishes which is attributed to environmental factors affecting the water bodies.

The result further indicated that environmental changes are not favourable to

artisanal fishery but more to aquaculture and that decrease in fish yield, and

poor growth performance of fish is attributed to environmental changes being

experienced as a result of the changing climate. The study recommended the

switching from fishing to fish farming, aquaculture. This study is similar to the

current study as it focused on the effects of climate change on fish farming

which is an objective of the later but differs in scope (as the former restricted

the study to fish production only) and the study area.

Francisca, Dominic, and Adekunle (2012) carried out a study on climate

change effects and adaptation strategies in Nigerian coastal Agro-ecological

zone. The study adopted descriptive survey research design and had 4 study

objectives and 3 hypotheses. The 8 coastal Agro-ecological/maritime states

including: Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo and

Rivers states. Ogun state was purposively selected as the study state. The

population was comprised of all farmers in the state. A multi-stage sampling

procedure involving random sampling of three rural communities was used to

obtain a sample size of 123 farmers, 41 from each community. Structured

questionnaire, interview guide and focus group discussion were used to collect

data for analysis. Using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS),

descriptive statistics were used to describe data trends and patterns, Chi square

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and Product Moment Correlation analyses to test hypotheses on data obtained at

ordinal level. The study observed that fishing communities in Ogun waterside

LGA, are already experiencing climate change effects. In response to climate

change effects, the farmers are developing coping strategies by having

secondary and sometimes tertiary sources of livelihoods other than agriculture,

encouraging tree planting and change in farming pattern. Recommendations

included the culture of seaweed as a viable alternative source of livelihood in

the coastal communities as well as the reduction of timber logging in

southwestern Nigeria. This study and the current study are related in that both

are focused on changes in agriculture brought about by climate trends but differ

in study area and scope.

Ogundele and Jegede (2011) conducted a study on environmental impact

of climate change on agricultural production in Ekiti state, Nigeria. Adopting

the survey research design, the study had two (2) research questions. The

population was made up of farmers and extension workers in the state. Simple

random sampling method was used to select 300 farmers and extension workers

that formed the respondent. Data for the study were collected using two sets of

structured interview and questionnaires. The data collected were analyzed using

simple percentage and frequency counts. Results from this study revealed that

food crops are the major crops cultivated in the study area, and the effects of

climate change on agricultural production results to soil loss, plant nutrient loss,

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textural change, increase in pests and diseases and poor crop germination. The

study recommended the planting of cover trees to provide shade and reduce heat

due to climate change and the preservation of underground water as well as

increased application of fertilizer to improve soil nutrients. This study relates to

the current study as both focused on the climate change and its corresponding

impact on agriculture but differs in study area.

A study by Anselm, Ignatius, Josephat, Anthony, Elizabeth and Fidelis

(2011) on the indigenous agricultural adaptation practices to climate change in

Southeast Nigeria adopted the survey research design method and had seven (7)

research objectives. The study carried out in southeast geo-political zone of

Nigeria made up of Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo states comprised of

all farmers in the state. Multistage random sampling technique was employed in

the selection of respondents for the study. Two states (Enugu and Imo) were

randomly selected for the study. In each selected state, two agricultural zones

were randomly selected; Owerri and Okigwe in Imo state and Enugu and

Nsukka in Enugu state. In each agricultural zone with the assistance of the

extension service department, farming communities were compiled, from which

two communities were randomly selected making a total of eight communities

for the study. They were Ugwueme in Awgu and Amaechi in Nkanu, in Enugu

agricultural zone; Umualumo in Okigwe and Okwe in Onuimo, in Okigwe

agricultural zone; Ovoko and Akpa-Edem, in Nsukka agricultural zone;

Amaigbo and Okpuala in Owerri agricultural zone. In each selected community,

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a list of farming households was compiled, also with the assistance of extension

agents, from which fifty (50) farmers were randomly selected, bringing the total

sampled respondents to four hundred (400) for the study. A structure

questionnaire was administered on the respondents to collect data. Data were

analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics such mean, standard

deviation and multiple regression. The study found out that despite extreme

weather events occasioned by climate change, and apparently because of its

tolerance to these conditions, cassava has become the dominant crop in

southeastern Nigeria. Furthermore, virtually all the respondents were, not only

aware of climate change, but also aware that some of its variables like extreme

weather events and uncertainties in the onset of farming season have been on

the increase. In addition, they were also aware of the effect of climate change on

agriculture, but were not aware that some agricultural practices could exacerbate

climate change. Recommendations made included using resistant variety and

encouraging organic agriculture. This study is related to the present study in that

both are focused on climate change and corresponding impacts on agricultural

production, but differs in the study area.

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Summary of Literature Review

The literature reviewed helped the study to understand the causes of

climate change in various area of the world. The literature further explained the

various impacts of climate change on agriculture, environment, economy and

the wellbeing of man and other organisms. The literature reviewed helped the

study to pick items for the instruments for data collection and revealed that

descriptive survey design is the appropriate one for the study. The reviewed

literature guided the study in selecting strategies for adaptation which is already

in practice in other regions and was suggested to the farmers in the Niger Delta

region for adoption.

The theoretical framework used in this study accounted for the reasons

for climate change. The anthropogenic global warming theory explained the role

of man and his activities to the current trend of climate change while the

planetary processes theory posits that variations in average weather is as a result

of natural progressions occurring within and outside the earth. The ecological

system theory dealt with the interaction of man and his environment,

coexistence and survival irrespective of changes in the surrounding. This study

is anchored on these theories as they form guide for understanding climate

change in any region while providing understanding for suitable options for

continued production even at the observed variations.

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The study on the perceived impacts of climate change on Agricultural

production in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, is aimed at determining the

extent of perceived (noticeable) effect of average weather variation and how the

observed deviation has affected animal, crop, fish production and on the

farming families in the region. Understanding these changes and the perceived

extent of impact posed on agricultural production with reference to animal,

crop, fish and the farming families could help identify the necessary strategies

for the farmers to sustain and improve production, even as climate changes.

In the literature reviewed, most studies focused on the impact of climate

change on either a section of agricultural production or entirely but in another

location. Other studies carried out in the study area focused singly on impacts

on animal or crop production and coping strategies ignoring impacts on fish

farming/fishing and the farming families in the region. Furthermore, no study

has empirically shown and documented the extent of impacts of climate change

in the study area and in Nigeria as a whole. This study is all encompassing,

filling the existing gap as it has determined and stated empirically the perceived

impacts of climate change on animal and crop production, fishing and fish

production and on the farming families and as well as the coping strategies,

which was designed to improve farming and the wellbeing of the farmers in the

region particularly in Delta state.

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CHAPTER THREE

METHODOLOGY

This chapter described the procedure that was adopted in carrying out the

study. The procedure is presented under the following sub-headings: design of

the study, area of the study, population for the study, sample and sampling

technique, instruments for data collection, validation of the instrument,

reliability of the instrument, method of data collection and method of data

analysis.

Design of the study

The study adopted descriptive survey research design. Descriptive survey

research design is the one in which a group of people or item is studied by

collecting and analyzing data from only a few individuals or items considered to

be representative of the entire group (Nworgu, 2006). This design is appropriate

for this study since information was gathered from a sample of the population

(farmers and agricultural extension agents) who are familiar with the ideas

relating to the purpose of the study with the aim of generalizing to the entire

population.

Area of the Study

The study was carried out in Delta state, in Niger Delta region of Nigeria.

Niger Delta is made up of 9 states which are Abia, Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross

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River, Delta, Edo, Imo, Ondo and Rivers States (see appendices C and D). The

study was restricted to Delta state from which results can be generalized to the

entire region. The state was chosen for the study because of heavy and visible

effects of climate change and registered the highest number of damage to

agriculture in one of the recent ecological disaster (flood) of 2012 in the region

The effects of climate change (especially flood) on agriculture in the state were

more noticeable in 10 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Delta state, which

are: Aniocha South, Bomadi, Burutu, Isoko North, Isoko South, Ndokwa East,

Ndokwa West, Patani, Ugheli North and Ugheli South local government areas

(LGAs) of Delta state. These LGAs formed the study area from were

respondents were drawn for data collection. A high percentage of the people in

the region engage in agriculture as a major means of livelihood. The occupation

of the people includes animal, crop and fish farming.

Population for the Study

The population for the study is 73,603 made up of 73,513 registered

farmers in the 10 LGAs and 90 extension agents in Delta state. The total

number of extension agents in the state is 90 while 73,513 farmers were

registered in the 10 LGAs (as at 2012).The farmers and the extension agents are

privileged to know the communities very well and the changes in agriculture

because they engage in animal, crop and fish production and are experienced to

provide dependable response.

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Sample and Sampling Technique

The sample for the study consists of 825 respondents; 735 registered

farmers and the 90 extension agents in the state. According to Boll and Gall in

Uzoagulu (2011), for a population equal to 10,000 but less than 20,000, 5% of

such population size can be used as the sample size while for a population

higher that 20,000, a lowered percentage can be used. Based on the author’s

recommendation, proportionate stratified random sampling technique was used

to select 1% of contact farmers from each LGA (strata). This gave a sample size

of 825 respondents (see appendix N).

Instruments for Data Collection

Structured questionnaire and structure interview were used to collect data

for the study. The structured questionnaire developed by the researcher and

titled “Questionnaire on Climate Change and Agriculture in Niger Delta -

QCCAND”, (see appendix A) was used to collect information from the

respondents. The questionnaire was divided into two (2) parts (I & II). Part I

solicited information on the socio-economic status of the respondent while part

II collected information relating to the impacts of climate change on agriculture

in the region based on the specific purposes of the study and was further divided

into five (5) sections (A-E). Each item in sections A-D had a four point

response options of High Extent (HE), Moderate Extent (ME), Low Extent (LE)

and No Extent (NE) weighted 4, 3, 2, and 1 respectively while each item in

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section E also had a four point response options of Strongly Agree (SA), Agree

(A), Disagree (D) and Strongly Disagree (SD) with 4, 3, 2, and 1 as their weight

respectively. Section A, B, C, and D addressed the perceived impacts of climate

change on animal, crop, fish production and the farming families respectively

while section E addressed the strategies for coping with climate change.

The second instrument (see appendix B) which is the structured interview

was also used to collected information from the respondents along with the

questionnaire. The interview guide was divided into five (5) sections each

responding and soliciting data from the respondents according to the specific

objectives of the study. The rationale behind the use of the structured interview

is rooted on the fact that “exclusive reliance on one instrument for data

collection may distort researcher’s picture of the particular slice of reality under

survey. It has been observed that the use of interview will go a long way in

helping research subject to open up and air their views in a very magnificent

way based on their experiences (Cohen & Manion, 1997).

Validation of the Instruments

The research instruments were subjected to face validation by three

experts; two from the Department of Vocational Teacher Education, University

of Nigeria, Nsukka and one from the Department of Vocational Technical

Education, University of Benin, Benin. They were asked to read and correct the

mistakes, ambiguous or wrongly worded statements, missing information and

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other observed errors. The validates were also asked to make suggestions for the

improvement of the instruments. Their corrections and suggestions were used

to produce the final copy of the instruments (see appendices A and B)

Reliability of the Instruments

The reliability of the structured questionnaire instrument was determined

by using Cronbach Alpha reliability test for obtaining the internal consistency

of the validated items. The Cronbach Alpha coefficient for the questionnaire

instrument was 0.79. To determine the internal consistency of the items, 30

copies of the questionnaire were administered on farmers and extension agents

in Edo state which were not among the respondents used for the study. The

distributed copies were collected and analyzed to obtain the reliability

coefficient. For the interview guide, the suitability of the responses of the tested

respondents revealed its usefulness to the study, thus its qualitative reliability.

Method of Data Collection

The structured questionnaire and interview were administered on the

respondents by the researcher with the help of four research assistants. The

research assistants were instructed on how to administer, moderate the process

and collect the copies of the completed instruments.

Method of Data Analysis

Data collected from the respondents were analyzed using Statistical

Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS- 20.0). The statistical tools used for data

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analysis were mean and standard deviation to answer research questions and t-

test to test the null hypotheses at 0.05 level of significance at the derived

degrees of freedom. The research questions were answered using real limit of

numbers or values of the mean as follows:

Response Option Nominal Value Real limit of number

High Extent (HE) 4 3.50 – 4.00

Moderate Extent (ME) 3 2.50 – 3.49

Low Extent (LE) 2 1.50 – 2.49

No Extent (NE) 1 0.50 – 1.49

Strongly Agree (SA) 4 3.50 – 4.49

Agree (A) 3 2.50 – 3.49

Disagree (D) 2 1.50 – 2.49

Strongly Disagree (SD) 1 0.50 – 1.49

In taking decisions for research question 1-4; any item with a mean value

ranging from 3.50 – 4.00, 2.50 – 3.49 or 1.50 – 2.49 was interpreted as high,

moderate or low extent of impact, respectively. While any item with a mean

value below 1.50 (0.50 – 1.49) was interpreted as no extent, meaning climate

change has no perceived impact on the item. With reference to research question

5; any item with a mean value ranging from 3.50 – 4.00, 2.50 – 3.49 or 1.50 –

2.49 was regarded as strongly agreed, agreed or disagree respectively ,while any

item with a mean value ranging from 0.50 – 1.49 (mean values below 1.50) was

regarded as strongly disagreed. For the hypotheses, any item that it’s t-

calculated is less than t-table value at the derived degree of freedom, the null

hypothesis of no significant difference was not rejected, but rejected if

otherwise.

The structured interview was analyzed qualitatively.

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CHAPTER FOUR

PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF DATA

In this chapter, the data collected for this study were presented and

analyzed based on the research questions and hypotheses that guided the study.

Research Question 1

To what extent has climate change impacted on animal production in the


Table 5

Mean Ratings and Standard Deviation of Respondents on the Extent to which

Climate Change has Impacted on Animal Production in the Niger Delta Region

of Nigeria

n1=647 n2=83 NT=730 S/N Items

Respondents

Farmers

X SD Dec.

Ext. workers

X SD Dec.

Av Resp.

X SD

Dec.

1. Type of livestock raised 2. Breeding (cycle) 3. The duration for pregnancy

(Gestation period) 4. Growth rate of livestock 5. Pest infestation and spread of

diseases 6. Death of young ones/still birth 7. Restlessness of the animal 8. The duration it takes to mature 9. Feed consumption 10. Availability of grassing land

for grazing 11. Mortality rate 12. Water consumption 13. Quality of meat 14. Livestock yield 15. Destruction of animal houses 16. Per cost of rearing the animals 17. Livestock product marketing

Cluster Response

1.49 1.17 NE 2.34 0.79 LE 2.09 1.14 LE

2.80 1.25 ME 2.73 1.20 ME 2.83 0.94 ME 2.19 1.08 LE 2.76 1.13 ME 2.50 0.97 ME 2.77 0.97 ME 2.87 1.06 ME 2.82 0.82 ME 2.74 0.99 ME 3.04 1.00 ME 2.05 1.03 LE 2.39 0.76 LE 2.70 0.93 ME

2.54 1.01 ME

1.80 0.96 LE 2.86 0.94 ME 3.04 1.13 ME

2.35 1.24 LE 2.16 0.97 LE 2.82 0.94 ME 2.89 0.94 ME 2.67 1.18 ME 2.77 0.98 ME 2.42 1.18 LE 3.01 0.96 ME 2.92 0.78 ME 2.94 1.22 ME 2.87 0.89 ME 2.63 1.16 ME 3.20 0.84 ME 2.96 0.93 ME

2.72 1.01 ME

1.65 1.07 2.60 0.87 2.57 1.14 2.58 1.25 2.45 1.09 2.83 0.94 2.54 1.01 2.72 1.16 2.64 0.98 2.60 1.08 2.94 1.01 2.87 0.80 2.84 1.11 2.96 0.95 2.34 1.10 2.80 0.80 2.83 0.93 2.63 1.01

LE ME ME

ME LE ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME LE ME ME

ME Note. Dec. – Decision. Av Resp.- Average Response. High Extent (HE=3.50 – 4.00) Moderate Extent

(ME=2.50 – 3.49) Low Extent (LE=1.50 – 2.49) No Extent (NE=0.50 – 1.49).

107

125

The data presented on table 5 showed that ten items (No. 4, 5, 8, 9, 10,

11, 12, 13, 14 and 17), responded to by farmers had moderate extent (ME) of

impact as their mean values fell within 2.50 – 3.49 real limit of number while

six items (No. 2, 3, 6, 7, 15 and 16) had low extent (LE) as their means fell

between 1.50 and 2.49. One item (No. 1) had a mean value of 1.49 which means

that the item was not affected by climate change as its mean fell within 0.50 –

1.49 thus had no extent (NE) of impact. Responses from extension workers,

indicated that fourteen items (No. 1-3, 6-9 and 11-17) had moderate extent

(ME) of impact as their means fell within 2.50 to 3.49 mean range while the

remaining three items (No. 4, 5 and 10) had low extent (LE) and their means

were within from 1.50 and 2.49.

On average response of both farmers and extension workers, all of the

items except two items had moderate extent of impact as their means fell within

2.50 – 3.49 real limit of number, while the remaining two items (No. 6 and 15)

had low extent of impact as their means were between 1.50 and 2.49. In

summary, the perceived extent of impact of climate change on animal

production in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria is moderate (ME) as indicated

by the average mean response (2.63) of both farmers and extension workers.

The standard deviation of all the items ranged from 0.76 – 1.25 with an average

standard deviation of 1.01; indicating that the respondents were not far from the

mean and from one another in their responses.

126

The information from the structured interview complemented the data

from the questionnaire presented on table 5. It was revealed that climate change

has impacted not to a high or low but moderate extent on animal production in

the region It was also revealed that the nature of impact is negative.

Hypothesis 1

H01 There is no significant difference in the mean responses of farmers and


impacted on animal production in Niger Delta region of Nigeria.

Table 6

t-test Distribution of the Perception of Farmers and Extension Workers on the

Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Animal Production in the Niger Delta

Region of Nigeria

S/N items t Sig. *(2-tailed)

Remark

1. Type of livestock raised 2. Breeding (cycle) 3. The duration for pregnancy (Gestation period) 4. Growth rate of livestock 5. Pest infestation and spread of diseases 6. Death of young ones/still birth 7. Restlessness of the animal 8. The duration it takes to mature 9. Feed consumption 10. Availability of grassing land for grazing 11. Mortality rate 12. Water consumption 13. Quality of meat 14. Livestock yield 15. Destruction of animal houses 16. Per cost of rearing the animals 17. Livestock product marketing

Cluster value

.047 4.018 6.011 -3.968 -3.140 6.121 6.738 - .645 2.533 -4.175 .479 1.492 .360 -2.146 5.433 10.952 2.596 1.949

.962

.000

.000

.000

.002

.000

.000

.519

.012

.000

.632

.136

.719

.032

.000

.000

.010

.178

NS S S S S S S

NS S S

NS NS NS S S S S

NS

* P<0.05 df =728 NS – Non Significant S - Significant

127

Data on table 6 revealed that there is significant difference (S) in the

opinions of farmers and extension workers in twelve items (No. 2-7, 9, 10 and

14-17) and a non-significant (NS) difference in five items (No. 1, 8 and 11-13).

The cluster value also indicates that the difference in their opinions is not

significant (NS). Thus the null hypothesis of no significant difference for the

items with remark NS was upheld.

Table 7

Summary of t-test Comparison of the Mean Responses of Farmers and

Extension Workers on the Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Animal

Production in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

Inclination to agriculture

Mean Standard Deviation

n df Standard Error

t-cal t-tab Decision

Farmers 2.54 1.01 647 728 0.12 1.50* 1.96 NS aE.W 2.72 1.01 83 Note.

a – Extension workers * P<0.05 NS – Non Significant

From table 7, t-test failed to reveal statistically reliable difference

between the mean responses of farmers and extension workers on the extent to

which climate change has impacted on animal production in the Niger Delta

region of Nigeria. This is because the t-calculated (t-cal) is less than the t-table

(t-tab) value indicating close response.

Thus the null hypothesis (H01) of no significant difference is not rejected.

128

Research Question 2

To what extent has climate change impacted on fish production in the


Table 8 Mean Ratings and Standard Deviation of Respondents on the Extent to which

Climate Change has Impacted on Crop Production in the Niger Delta Region of

Nigeria

n1=647 n2=83 NT=730

S/N Items

Respondents

Farmers

X SD Dec.

Ext. workers

X SD Dec.

Av Resp.

X SD

Dec.

1. Clearing of farmland 2. Planting month 3. Spacing during planting 4. Planting depth 5. Germination of crop seeds 6. Weed growth 7. Quantity of fertilizer application 8. Pest and disease infestation of crops 9. Pest and disease control 10. Rainfall pattern 11. Growth rate 12. Maturation of crops 13. Harvesting time/period 14. Quantity and Quality of produce 15. Storage and Marketing 16. Scorching of seedlings 17. Flooding of farmland 18. Duration of dry season (drought) 19. Erosion/leaching occurrence

Cluster Response

3.52 0.59 HE 2.73 1.11 ME 2.22 0.99 LE 2.23 0.94 LE 2.78 1.10 ME 3.12 1.10 ME 2.73 1.09 ME 2.79 0.93 ME 2.89 1.16 ME 3.51 0.62 HE 2.64 0.95 ME 2.89 1.06 ME 3.21 1.12 ME 3.36 1.13 ME 2.61 0.94 ME 2.76 1.10 ME 3.62 0.64 HE 2.19 1.09 LE 2.76 1.18 ME

2.87 0.99 ME

3.17 0.73 ME 2.57 0.86 ME 1.75 1.16 LE 2.46 0.99 LE 2.27 3.32 ME 3.45 1.39 ME 3.41 1.28 ME 2.71 1.10 ME 2.59 1.06 ME 3.54 0.52 HE 3.04 1.15 ME 2.75 1.10 ME 2.88 1.16 ME 2.77 1.08 ME 3.24 1.13 ME 2.65 1.28 ME 3.48 1.23 ME 2.78 1.13 ME 2.90 1.29 ME

2.86 1.10 ME

3.35 0.66 2.65 0.99 1.99 1.08 2.35 0.97 2.53 1.21 3.29 1.25 3.07 1.19 2.75 1.02 2.74 1.11 3.53 0.57 2.84 1.05 2.82 1.08 3.05 1.14 3.07 1.11 2.93 1.04 2.71 1.19 3.55 0.94 2.49 1.11 2.83 1.24 2.87 1.05

ME ME LE LE ME ME ME ME ME HE ME ME ME ME ME ME HE LE ME



Data on table 8 revealed that three items (No. 1, 10 and 17) responded to

by farmers had high extent (HE) of impact as their means were within 3.50 –

4.00 real limit of number. Thirteen items (No. 2, 5-9, 11-16 and 19) had

moderate extent (ME) as their means fell within 2.50 to 3.49, while three items

129

(No. 3, 4 and 18) had low extent (LE) as their mean values were between 1.50

and 2.49. Responses from extension workers, showed that one item (No. 10)

had high extent (HE) of impact as its mean fell between 3.50 and 4.00 while

sixteen items (No. 1, 2, 5-9 and 11-19) had moderate extent (ME) as their

means were within 2.50 to 3.49. Two items (No. 3 and 4) had low extent of

impact with their means falling within 1.50 to 2.49.

On the average response of both farmers and extension workers, two

items (No. 10 and 17) had high extent (HE) of impact with their mean values

falling between 3.50 and 4.00 real limit of number. Fourteen items (No. 1-2, 5-

9, 11-16 and 19) had moderate extent (ME) as their means fell within 2.50 to

3.49 while three items (No. 3, 4 and 18) had low extent of impact as their mean

fell within 1.50 to 2.29. In summary, the extent of impact of climate change on

crop production in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria is moderate (ME) as

indicated by the average mean response (2.87) of both farmers and extension

workers. The standard deviation of all the items ranged from 0.52 – 1.39 with

an average standard deviation of 1.05; indicating that the respondents were not

far from the mean and from one another in their responses.


from the questionnaire presented on table 8. It was revealed that climate change

has impacted noticeably though not to a high or low but moderate extent on

130

crop production in the region. It was also revealed that the nature of impact is

negative especially with unpredictable change in rainfall pattern.

Hypothesis 2



impacted on crop production in Niger Delta region of Nigeria.

Table 9


Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in the Niger Delta

Region of Nigeria


Remark

1. Clearing of farmland 2. Planting month 3. Spacing during planting 4. Planting depth 5. Germination of crop seeds 6. Weed growth 7. Quantity of fertilizer application 8. Pest and disease infestation of crops 9. Pest and disease control 10. Rainfall pattern 11. Growth rate 12. Maturation of crops 13. Harvesting time/period 14. Quantity and Quality of produce 15. Storage and Marketing 16. Scorching of seedlings 17. Flooding of farmland 18. Duration of dry season (drought) 19. Erosion/leaching occurrence

Cluster value

- .564 -1.266 4.560 .810 -3.687 -4.970 -2.343 .651 -2.871 5.843 2.058 -1.796 4.039 3.787 5.577 - .925 .585 .650 4.949 .794

.573

.206

.000

.418

.000

.000

.019

.516

.004

.000

.040

.073

.000

.000

.000

.355

.559

.343

.000

.163

NS NS S

NS S S S

NS S S S

NS S S S

NS NS NS S

NS * P<0.05 df =728 NS – Non Significant S - Significant

131

Data presented on table 9 revealed that there is significant difference (S)

in the opinions of farmers and extension workers in eleven items (No. 3, 5-7, 9-

11, 13-15 and 19) and a non-significant (NS) difference in eight items (No. 1, 2,

4, 8, 12and 16-18). The cluster value also indicates that the difference in their

opinions is not significant (NS). Thus the null hypothesis of no significant

difference for the items with remark NS was upheld.

Table 10


Extension Workers on the Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Crop




n df Standard Error




From table 10, t-test revealed that no statistically difference exits between

the mean perception of farmers and extension workers on the extent to which

climate change has impacted on crop production in the Niger Delta region of

Nigeria. This is because the t-calculated (t-cal) is less than the t-table (t-tab)

value indicating close response.


132

Research Question 3

To what extent has climate change impacted on fishing and fish

production in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria?

Table 11 Mean Ratings and Standard Deviation of Respondents on the Extent to which

Climate Change has Impacted on Fishing and Fish Production in the Niger

Delta Region of Nigeria

n1=45 n2=34 NT=79 S/N Items

Respondents

Farmers

X SD Dec.

Ext. Workers

X SD Dec.

Av Resp.

X SD

Dec.

1. Construction of pond 2. Stocking rate of fingerlings 3. Stocking time and method for the

fingerlings 4. Type of fish raised 5. Breeding cycle and Egg hatchability 6. Quality and Size of fries/fingerlings 7. Growth rate of the fishes 8. Feed consumption 9. Feeding period/time 10. Disease infestation of the fishes 11. Death rate in the pond 12. Quantity/Yield of fish 13. Pond temperature 14. Availability of water for ponds 15. Marketing of harvested fish 16. Access/distance to fishing ground 17. Fish density in an area 18. Loss of fishing gear 19. Capsizing of fishing boat due to wave 20. Sizes of fish caught 21. Number of fish caught 22. Distribution of fish species in an area 23. Loss of fishermen 24. Algal and water hyacinth growth

Cluster Response

1.42 0.94 NE 2.56 0.72 ME 2.22 0.56 LE 3.13 0.84 ME 3.00 1.30 ME 2.53 1.22 ME 3.16 0.71 ME 2.73 0.54 ME 2.82 0.44 ME 2.84 0.88 ME 3.38 0.72 ME 3.00 0.71 ME 2.62 0.72 ME 2.47 0.55 LE 3.02 0.84 ME 3.51 0.87 HE 2.91 0.60 ME 2.13 1.06 LE 1.19 0.88 NE 3.18 0.75 ME 2.53 0.55 ME 2.98 1.00 ME 2.04 0.80 LE 2.69 1.10 ME

2.67 0.80 ME

1.71 0.83 LE 2.65 1.10 ME 2.68 0.88 ME

2.88 0.84 ME 2.65 1.12 ME 2.21 0.81 LE 3.21 0.73 ME 3.03 0.72 ME 2.65 0.65 ME 3.32 0.68 ME 3.24 0.99 ME 3.09 0.75 ME 2.56 1.19 ME 2.56 0.70 ME 2.71 0.63 ME 3.65 0.81 HE 3.24 0.82 ME 3.09 0.90 ME 2.88 0.88 ME 2.88 0.48 ME 2.50 0.62 ME 2.91 0.93 ME 3.00 1.95 ME 3.18 1.06 ME 2.85 0.88 ME

1.57 0.89 2.61 0.91 2.45 0.72 3.01 0.84 2.83 1.21 2.37 1.02 3.19 0.72 2.88 0.63 2.74 0.55 3.08 0.78 3.31 0.86 3.05 0.73 2.59 0.96 2.52 0.63 2.87 0.74 3.58 0.84 3.08 0.71 2.61 0.98 2.04 0.88 3.03 0.61 2.52 0.59 2.95 0.97 2.52 1.38 2.94 1.08 2.76 0.84

LE ME LE ME ME LE ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME HE ME ME LE ME ME ME ME ME



133

Data presented on table 11 showed that one item (No. 16) responded to

by farmers had high extent (HE) of impact as its mean value fell between 3.50 –

4.00 real limit of number. Seventeen items (No. 2, 4-13, 15, 17, 20-22 and 24)

had moderate extent (ME) as their means were within 2.50 to 3.49, while four

items (No. 3, 14, 18 and 23) had low extent (LE) as their means fell within 1.50

to 2.49. The other two items (No. 1 and 19) were not affected by climate change

as their mean values were below 1.50 (0.50 – 1.49) thus had no extent (NE) of

impact. Responses from extension workers showed that one item (No. 16) had

high extent (HE) of impact as its mean value fell between 3.50 – 4.00 while

twenty-one items (No. 2-5, 7-15 and 17-24) had moderate extent (ME) and their

mean values were within 2.50 – 3.49. The remaining two items (No. 1 and 6)

had low extent of impact as their means fell between 1.50 and 2.49.

On average response of farmers and extension workers, one item (No. 16)

had high extent (HE) of impact as its mean value fell within 3.50 – 4.00 real

limit of number. Nineteen items (No. 2, 4, 5, 7-15, 17, 18 and 20-24) had

moderate extent (ME) as their means were between 2.50 and 3.49 while four

items (No. 1, 3, 6 and 19) had low extent of impact as their mean values fell

within 1.50 – 2.29. In summary, the extent of impact of climate change on

fishing and fish production in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria is moderate

(ME) as indicated by the average mean response (2.76) of both farmers and

extension workers. The standard deviation of all the items ranged from 0.48 –

134

1.95 with an average standard deviation of 0.84; indicating that the respondents

were not far from the mean and from one another in their responses.


from the questionnaire presented on table 11. It was revealed that climate

change has impacted noticeably to a moderate extent on fishing and fish

production in the region. It was also revealed that the nature of impact is

slightly negative with the greatest impact on the distance covered for a good

catch during fishing.

Hypothesis 3



impacted on fishing and fish production in Niger Delta region of Nigeria.

135

Table 12


Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Fishing and Fish Production in the

Niger Delta Region of Nigeria


Remark

1. Construction of pond 2. Stocking rate of fingerlings 3. Stocking time and method for the fingerlings 4. Type of fish raised 5. Breeding cycle and Egg hatchability 6. Quality and Size of fries/fingerlings 7. Growth rate of the fishes 8. Feed consumption 9. Feeding period/time 10. Disease infestation of the fishes 11. Death rate in the pond 12. Quantity/Yield of fish 13. Pond temperature 14. Availability of water for ponds 15. Marketing of harvested fish 16. Access/distance to fishing ground 17. Fish density in an area 18. Loss of fishing gear 19. Capsizing of fishing boat due to wave 20. Sizes of fish caught 21. Number of fish caught 22. Distribution of fish species in an area 23. Loss of fishermen 24. Algal and water hyacinth growth

Cluster value

.138 - .029 2.294 - 2.098 - 2.210 - 2.196 .129 1.001 - 1.069 2.556 - .153 - .460 - .735 .250 - 2.594 1.186 .863 3.666 4.515 - 2.053 .631 - .975 4.255 - .874 .252

.891

.977

.024

.039

.030

.031

.897

.320

.288

.012

.879

.647

.465

.803

.011

.239

.391

.000

.000

.043

.384

.332

.000

.530

.343

NS NS S S S S

NS NS NS S

NS NS NS NS S

NS NS S S S

NS NS S

NS

NS


Data on table 12 showed that there is significant difference (S) in the

opinions of farmers and extension workers in ten items (No. 3-6, 10, 15, 18-20

and 23) and a non-significant (NS) difference in fourteen items (No. 1, 2, 7-9,

11-14, 16, 17, 21, 22 and 24). The cluster value also indicates that the difference

in their opinions is not significant (NS). Thus the null hypothesis of no

significant difference for the items with remark NS was upheld.

136

Table 13


Extension Workers on the Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Fish




n df Standard Error


Farmers 2.67 0.80 45 77 0.19 0.95* 1.98 NS aE.W 2.85 0.88 34

Note. a

– Extension workers * P<0.05 NS – Non Significant

From table 13, t-test did not show statistically difference between the

mean perception of farmers and extension workers on the extent to which

climate change has impacted on fishing and fish production in the Niger Delta

region of Nigeria. This is because the t-calculated (t-cal) is less than the t-table

(t-tab) value indicating close response.


137

Research Question 4

To what extent has climate change impacted on the farming families in

the Niger Delta region of Nigeria?

Table 14

Mean Ratings and Standard Deviation of Respondents on the Extent to which

Climate Change has Impacted on Farming Families in the Niger Delta Region

of Nigeria

n1=647 n2=83 NT=730 S/N Items

Respondents

Farmers

X SD Dec.

Ext. Workers

X SD Dec.

Av Resp.

X SD

Dec.

1. Water availability for irrigation 2. Drying up of ponds and streams 3. Risk of sickness 4. Spread of disease 5. Damage to Building 6. Damage to roads and bridges 7. Roof damage by acid rain 8. Drainage system damage 9. Poverty level 10. Loss of live (mortality rate) 11. Development 12. Heat stress 13. Flood occasion 14. Type/difficulty of work done on the

farm 15. Cost of production (input and labour

cost) 16. Net profit from farming

Cluster Response

1.17 1.09 NE 1.19 1.15 NE 2.52 1.11 ME 2.38 0.97 LE 2.70 1.19 ME 2.41 0.97 LE 2.15 1.00 LE 2.87 1.12 ME 3.51 1.15 HE 2.41 0.95 LE 2.54 1.08 ME 2.58 0.99 ME 3.95 0.11 HE 2.75 0.97 ME 3.39 0.76 ME 2.94 0.92 ME

2.59 0.97 ME

2.09 1.18 LE 2.07 0.98 LE

3.07 1.13 ME 3.04 1.06 ME 2.94 1.16 ME 3.02 1.09 ME 2.96 1.20 ME 3.02 1.00 ME 3.22 1.01 ME 1.89 1.23 NE 2.94 1.11 ME 3.04 0.94 ME 3.53 0.74 HE 2.93 1.20 ME

2.26 1.54 LE

2.34 1.08 LE

2.77 1.10 ME

1.63 1.14 1.63 1.07 2.80 1.12 2.71 1.02 2.82 1.18 2.72 1.03 2.56 1.10 2.95 1.06 3.37 1.08 2.15 1.09 2.74 1.10 2.81 0.97 3.74 0.43 2.84 1.09 2.83 1.15 2.64 1.00

2.68 1.04

LE LE ME ME ME ME ME ME ME LE ME ME HE ME ME ME



Data on table 14 revealed that two items (No. 9 and 13) responded to by

farmers had high extent (HE) of impact as their means values fell between 3.50

– 4.00 real limit of number. Eight items (No. 3, 5, 8, 11, 12 and 14) had

moderate extent (ME) as their means were within 2.50 to 3.49, while four items

138

(No. 4, 6, 7 and 10) had low extent (LE) as their means fell within 1.50 to 2.49.

Two items (No. 1 and 2) were not affected by climate change as their mean

values were below 1.50 (0.50-1.49) thus had no extent (NE) of impact.

Responses from extension workers revealed that one item (No. 13) had high

extent (HE) of impact as its mean value was within 3.50 – 4.49 while ten items

(No. 3-9, 11, 12 and 14) had moderate extent (ME) and their means fell within

2.50 to 3.49. Four items (No. 1, 2, 15 and 16) had low extent of impact as their

means values were within 1.50 to 2.49 while one item (No. 10) was not affected

by climate change as its mean was below 1.50 (0.50 – 1.49) thus had no extent

(NE) of impact.

On average response of farmers and extension workers, one item (No.13)

had high extent (HE) of impact as its mean value was between 3.50 – 4.00 real

limit of number while twelve items (No. 3-9, 11, 12 and 14-16) had moderate

extent (ME) as their means fell within 2.50 to 3.49. Three items (No. 1, 2 and

10) had low extent of impact as their means were between 1.50 and 2.29. In

summary, the extent of impact of climate change on farming families in the

Niger Delta region of Nigeria is moderate (ME) as indicated by the average

mean response (2.68) of both farmers and extension worker. The standard

deviation of all the items ranged from 0.11–1.54; indicating that the respondents

had a wide range of opinion about the items concerned though not far from their

means as the standard deviation for the average response was 1.04.

139


from the questionnaire as presented on table 14. It was revealed that climate

change has impacted noticeably not to a high or low but moderate extent on the

farming families in the region. The nature of the impact was revealed to be

highly negative as flood destroyed most farm lands in the region affecting the

economy of the local farmers which has led to increasing poverty level in the

region.

Hypothesis 4



impacted on farming families in Niger Delta region of Nigeria.

140

Table 15


Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Farming Families in the Niger Delta

Region of Nigeria


Remark

1. Water availability for irrigation 2. Drying up of ponds and streams 3. Risk of sickness 4. Spread of disease 5. Damage to Building 6. Damage to roads and bridges 7. Roof damage by acid rain 8. Drainage system damage 9. Poverty level 10. Loss of live (mortality rate) 11. Development 12. Heat stress 13. Flood occasion 14. Type/difficulty of work done on the farm 15. Cost of production (input and labour cost) 16. Net profit from farming

Cluster value

2.253 3.752 - 3.917 - 5.733 1.339 6.087 - 8.139 6.159 .817 2.699 9.195 4.591 .508 - 6.915 1.953 1.786

1.027

.025

.000

.000

.000

.120

.000

.000

.007

.570

.000

.000

.000

.611

.000

.144

.163

.103

S S S S

NS S S S

NS S S S

NS S

NS NS

NS


Data on table 15 revealed that there is significant difference (S) in the

opinions of farmers and extension workers in eleven items (No. 1-4, 6-8, 10-12

and 14) and a non-significant (NS) difference in five items (No. 5, 9, 13, 15 and

16). The cluster value also indicates that the difference in their opinions is not

significant (NS). Thus the null hypothesis of no significant difference of the

items with remark NS was upheld.

141

Table 16

t-test Comparison of the Mean Responses of Farmers and Extension Workers on

the Extent of Impact of Climate Change on Farming Families in the Niger Delta

Region of Nigeria



n df Standard Error




From table 16, t-test did not show any reliable statistical difference

between the mean perception of farmers and extension workers on the extent to

which climate change has impacted on farming families in the Niger Delta

region of Nigeria. This is because the t-calculated (t-cal) in less than the t-table

(t-tab) value.


Research Question 5

What are the coping strategies that can be adopted for the alleviation of

the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Niger Delta region of

Nigeria?

Table 17

Mean Ratings and Standard Deviation of Respondents on the Coping Strategies

that can be Adopted for the Alleviation of the Impact of Climate Change on

Agricultural Production in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

142

n1=647 n2=83 NT=730

S/N Items

Respondents

Farmers

X SD Dec.

Ext. Workers

X SD Dec.

Av Resp. Dec.

X SD 1. Using improved crop varieties and animal

breed 2. Change planting/stocking time 3. Use of mulching materials for crops and

shades for animals 4. Using early maturing plants/animals 5. Using nursery for transplantable crops 6. Mix cropping 7. Practicing land and/or crop rotation 8. Planting deeper than the usual planting depth

to prevent scorching 9. Using intensive fertilizer/manure application

for crop production 10. Change of harvesting date 11. Expansion of farming land 12. Sand filling water logged area to reclaim lost

land 13. Switching to intensive management of

livestock 14. Skipping storage but processing and

marketing immediately affect harvest 15. Changing from production of agriculture to

marketing 16. Sinking of boreholes in farm to ensure water

availability/artificial irrigation 17. Collection of runoff water in ditches for

drought periods 18. Switching to fish farming rather than fishing 19. Construction of foot bridges with wood,

stones and sand bags 20. Raising walls with sand bags and/or blocks

to divert flood water 21. Construction of drainage system or dam

within farm/household 22. Subsidizing of agricultural inputs by relevant

authorities 23. Setting up of housing programmes for

displaced farmers 24. Resettlement of communities from hazard

zones 25. Giving the affected farmers financial support 26. Vaccinating against diseases 27. Change profession entirely

Cluster Response

3.16 0.98 A 2.89 0.92 A 3.25 1.10 A 2.70 0.88 A 2.75 1.10 A 2.77 0.98 A 2.56 1.00 A 1.92 0.99 D 2.72 1.06 A 2.93 1.03 A 2.54 0.98 A 2.28 1.14 D 2.72 0.90 A 2.95 1.05 A 2.29 0.99 D 2.12 1.18 D 2.92 1.01 A 2.77 0.91 A 3.62 1.04 SA 3.51 0.71 SA 2.75 0.90 A 3.38 0.86 A 2.61 0.92 A 2.59 0.98 A 3.18 0.99 A 3.02 1.08 A 1.76 1.06 D 2.77 0.99 A

3.17 0.89 A 3.35 0.79 A 3.06 1.07 A 2.96 1.15 A 2.60 1.29 A 3.13 1.01 A 2.96 1.08 A 3.01 1.08 A 2.99 0.92 A 3.13 0.98 A 2.93 1.05 A 2.65 1.16 A 3.20 0.79 A 3.33 0.93 A 3.02 1.14 A 3.13 1.07 A 3.05 1.28 A 3.06 1.11 A 2.75 1.27 A 3.81 0.98 SA 2.89 1.17 A 3.23 0.83 A 2.96 1.11 A 3.18 0.91 A 3.27 0.88 A 3.16 0.82 A 2.92 1.24 A 3.07 1.04 A

3.17 0.89 A 3.12 0.86 A 3.16 1.09 A 2.83 1.02 A 2.68 1.20 A 2.95 1.00 A 2.76 1.04 A 2.47 1.04 D 2.86 0.99 A 3.03 1.01 A 2.74 1.02 A 2.47 1.15 D 2.96 0.85 A 3.14 0.99 A 2.66 1.07 A 2.63 1.13 A 2.99 1.15 A 2.92 1.01 A 3.19 1.16 A 3.66 0.85 SA 2.82 1.04 A 3.31 0.85 A 2.79 1.02 A 2.89 0.95 A 3.25 0.94 A 3.09 0.95 A 2.34 1.15 D 2.92 1.02 A

Note. Dec – Decision. Strongly Agree (SA=3.50 – 4.00) Agree (A=2.50 – 3.49) Disagree (D=1.50 – 2.49)

Strongly Disagree (SD=0.50 – 1.49).

143

The data presented on table 17 revealed that farmers strongly agreed (SA)

to two items (No. 19 and 20 as their mean values were 3.62 and 3.51

respectively which fell within 3.50 to 4.00 real limit of numbers) as strategies

for coping with impacts of climate change in the region. The table also showed

that farmers agreed (A) to twenty items (No. 1-7, 9-11, 13, 14, 17, 18 and 21-

26) as their means were between 2.50 and 3.49, while disagreeing (D) to five

items (No. 8, 12, 15, 16 and 27) as their means fell within 1.50 to 2.49.

Responses from extension workers, showed that one item (No. 20) was strongly

agreed (SA) to as a coping strategy, as its mean value is 3.81 which fell between

3.50 and 4.00 while they (extension workers) agreed to the remaining twenty-

six items (No. 1-19 and 21-27) as their means were within 2.50 to 3.49.

On average response of farmers and extension workers, one item (No.20)

was strongly agreed (SA) to as a coping strategy having an average mean of

3.66 which fell between 3.50 – 4.49 real limit of number, while twenty-three

items (No. 1-7, 9-11, 13-19 and 21-26) were agreed (A) to as their means were

within 2.50 to 3.49 . They (the farmers and the extension workers) however

disagreed (D) to the remaining three items (No. 8, 12 and 27) as their means fell

within 1.50 to 2.29. In summary, for the coping strategies as indicated in table

17, one item was strongly agreed to, twenty-three items were agreed to while

three items were disagreed to as coping strategies by the respondents.

144

The standard deviation of all the items responded to by farmers ranged

from 0.71 – 1.18; indicating that the farmers were not far from the mean and

from one another in their responses. While that of the extension workers ranged

from 0.79 to 1.29; indicating that the extension workers were not far from their

means and from one another in their responses.


from the questionnaire as presented on table 17. The most suggested practices

for coping with climate change impacts included increased use of fertilizer for

crop production, construction of foot bridges as well as raising walls with sand

bags and/or blocks to divert flood water. Most of the respondents suggested

giving of financial support to the affected farmers as well as subsidizing of

agricultural inputs by relevant authorities to encourage them. Changing

planting/harvesting period and mix cropping/farming were also suggested as

coping strategies. Majority of the farmers also listed appropriate medical

checkup and vaccination against diseases as a very important strategy.

Hypothesis 5


agricultural extension workers on the strategies for coping with the impact of

climate change on agricultural production in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria.

145

Table 18


Strategies for Coping with the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural



Remark

1. Using improved crop varieties and animal breed 2. Change planting/stocking time 3. Use of mulching materials for crops and shades for animals 4. Using early maturing plants/animals 5. Using nursery for transplantable crops 6. Mix cropping 7. Practicing land and/or crop rotation 8. Planting deeper than the usual planting depth to prevent

scorching 9. Using intensive fertilizer/manure application for crop

production 10. Change of harvesting date 11. Expansion of farming land 12. Sand filling water logged area to reclaim lost land 13. Switching to intensive management of livestock 14. Skipping storage but processing and marketing immediately

affect harvest 15. Changing from production of agriculture to marketing 16. Sinking of boreholes in farm to ensure water

availability/artificial irrigation 17. Collection of runoff water in ditches for drought periods 18. Switching to fish farming rather than fishing 19. Construction of foot bridges with wood, stones and sand bags 20. Raising walls with sand bags and/or blocks to divert flood water 21. Construction of drainage system or dam within farm/household 22. Subsidizing of agricultural inputs by relevant authorities 23. Setting up of housing programmes for displaced farmers 24. Resettlement of communities from hazard zones 25. Giving the affected farmers financial support 26. Vaccinating against diseases 27. Change profession entirely

Cluster value

.885 1.598 6.413 2.341 3.585 3.580 9.494 1.692 2.229 4.993 3.793 1.947 5.507 3.882 6.794 6.234 9.658 3.058 -1.986 1.551 1.831 - 1.605 3.604 3.627 1.229 1.912 -1.713 3.190

.353

.111

.000

.020

.000

.000

.000

.075

.026

.000

.000

.054

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.002

.044

.112

.072

.086

.000

.000

.209

.046

.081

.048

NS NS S S S S S

NS

S

S S

NS S S

S S

S S S

NS NS NS S S

NS S

NS

S * P<0.05 df =647 NS – Non Significant S - Significant

Data presented on table 18 revealed that there is significant difference (S)

in the opinions of farmers and extension workers in eighteen items (No. 3-7, 9-

11, 13-19, 23, 24 and 26) and a non-significant (NS) difference in nine items

146

(No. 1, 2, 8, 12, 20-22, 25 and 27). The cluster value indicates that there is

significant difference (S) in their opinions. Thus the null hypothesis of no

significant difference of only the items with remark NS was upheld.

Table 19


Agricultural Extension Workers on the Strategies for Coping with the Impact of

Climate Change on Agricultural Production in the Niger Delta Region of

Nigeria



n df Standard Error


Farmers 2.77 0.99 647 728 0.12 2.50* 1.96 S aE.W 3.07 1.04 83 Note.

a – Extension workers * P<0.05 S – Significant

From table 19, t-test showed statistical difference between the mean

responses of farmers and agricultural extension workers on the strategies for

coping with the impact of climate change on agricultural production in the

Niger Delta region of Nigeria. This is because the t-calculated (t-cal) is greater

than the t-table (t-tab) value indicating far response between the groups.

Thus the null hypothesis (H05) of no significant difference is rejected as

the difference in their mean responses is significant.

147

Findings of the Study

The major findings of the study are presented below according to

research questions and hypotheses tested.

Extent to which Climate Change has Impacted on Animal Production in the


1. Climate change has impacted on the type of livestock reared, pest infestation

and spread of diseases and has caused destruction of animal houses in the

region though to a low extent.

2. Generally, the impact of climate change on animal production in the region

is moderate.

3. The farmers and the extension workers have the same opinion about the

extent of impact on animal production in the region.

Extent to which Climate Change has Impacted on Crop Production in the


1. Climate change has highly influenced rainfall pattern in the region.

2. Climate change has caused high occasion of farmland flooding in the region.

3. Climate change has influenced the spacing given during planting, planting

depth and duration of dry season (drought) but to a low extent.

4. Generally, the extent of impact of climate change on crop production in the

region is moderate.

148

5. The farmers and the extension workers have similar opinion about the extent

of impact on crop production in the region

Extent to which Climate Change has Impacted on Fishing and Fish


1. Climate change has impacted highly on the access/distance to fishing

ground.

2. Climate change has low impact on the construction of pond, stocking time

and method for the fingerlings and on capsizing of fishing boat.

3. Generally, the extent of impact of climate change on fish production in the

region is moderate.

4. The farmers and the extension workers have closely related opinions about

the extent of impact on fishing and fish production in the region.

Extent to which Climate Change has Impacted on Farming Families in the


1. Climate change has resulted to high occurrence of flood in the region and

has caused increased poverty level and cost of production (input and labour

cost) as indicated by the farmers.

2. Climate change has low impact on the water availability for irrigation,

drying up of ponds and streams as well as on mortality rate.

3. Generally, the impact of climate change on farming families in the region is

moderate.

149

4. The farmers and the extension workers have the same opinion about the

extent of impact in the region

Coping Strategies that can be Adopted for the Alleviation of the Impact of

Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

1. The farmers and the extension workers strongly agreed that construction of

foot bridges with wood, stones and sand bags is a good coping strategy to be

adopted by the farmers.

2. The respondents agreed with most coping strategies but disagreed with

planting deeper than the usual planting depth to prevent scorching, sand

filling water logged area to reclaim lost land and changing profession

entirely.

3. The farmers also disagreed that changing from production of agriculture to

marketing and sinking of boreholes in farms to ensure water

availability/artificial irrigation are strategies to coping with the impacts of

climate change on agricultural production.

4. Generally, the respondents agreed to majority of the suggested coping

strategies.

5. The farmers and the extension workers seem to have differing level of

opinion about the coping strategies.

150

Discussion of Findings

The discussion of findings of this study is presented below, according to

the research questions.

Climate Change Impacts on Animal Production in the Niger Delta Region of

Nigeria

Response from the farmers indicated that climate change has not affected

the type of livestock reared in the area while the responses from the extension

workers indicated that climate change did affect the type of livestock reared but

to a low extent. This is likely due to the range of animals that are found in the

region , such as poultry, pigs and few goats and sheeps.

Climate change has impacted moderately on all aspects of animal

production but to a low extent on type of livestock reared, pest infestation and

spread of diseases, and destruction of animal houses. These findings are in line

with works authors such as Smit, Nabb and Smihers (1996), Frank, Mader,

Harrington and Hahn (2002), Silvia (2002) and Idowu, Ayoola, Opele and

Ikenweiwe (2011) that stated that climate change affects the range of animals,

causes increased occasion of pest and diseases, discomfort to animals as well as

the destruction of animal houses, among others.

There is every reason from the results to conclude that significant

difference does not exist between the mean responses of the farmers and the

extension workers on the perceived impacts of climate change in the region, as

151

indicated by the t-test. Any observed difference is not a true difference, but a

mere chance which could have resulted from sampling error.

Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in the Niger Delta Region of

Nigeria

Indications from the study revealed that rainfall pattern has changed,

there is also increased cost of production and resulted to poor quality and

quantity of produce. This is supported by various observations and interview

granted to farmers and essay from literature reviewed in this study, such as

Awosika (1995), Oladipo (1995), IPCC (2007), Uyigue and Agho (2007) and

Bhusal (2009) who reported changes in rainfall pattern across the world

resulting from adverse effects of climate change which has affected cost of

production as well as the quality and quantity of produce

The farmers indicated that climate change has impacted highly on

clearing of farmland, rainfall pattern and flooding of farmland. Though the

extension workers agreed with the farmers on rainfall pattern they indicated that

its impact on clearing of farmland and flooding of farmland is moderate.

Climate change has not impacted much (low extent) on spacing during planting

and the planting depth as indicated by the respondents. This is likely due to the

specified required planting space and depth of various plants for proper

germination and reduced competition among closely planted crops.

The farmers indicated low extent for duration of dry season (drought)

meaning that climate change has brought little alteration in drought duration in

152

the region while the extension workers maintained that it has caused a moderate

change. This finding is in agreement with Lemke (2006) that regions which are

already dry today will become even drier while wet ones will receive even more

rain, according to the climate scenarios. Niger Delta is a coastal/wet region thus

receiving more wet periods than dry (drought).

Climate change has caused moderate but negative impact on crop

production in the region. Though the perceived impact of climate change on

crop production in the region is moderate, not high as purported, these findings

are in agreement with reviewed literature indicating that average weather

variation has caused a drastic negative change to crop production (Molua &

Lambi, 2006; Christensen & Lettenmaier, 2007; Alcamo, Moreno, Nováky,

Bindi, Corobov, Devoy & Shvidenko, 2007; Schlenker & Roberts, 2009; Idowu,

Ayoola, Opele & Ikenweiwe, 2011).

The results conclude that there is no significant difference between the

mean response of the farmers and the extension workers on the perceived

impacts of climate change in the region as indicated by t-test. This shows that

any observed difference is attributable to mere chance of occurrence.

Climate Change Impacts on Fishing and Fish Production in the Niger Delta

Region of Nigeria

With changing conditions in the water bodies such as temperature,

salinity and invasion of aggressive water species, the fish dominated region

seems to be affected causing the fishes to move to different part of the water

153

body thus forcing the fishing farmers to travel to such distance to make a good

catch. This finding is supported by numerous findings from reviewed literature

in this study such as Macfadyen and Allison (2009), Sumaila and William

(2010), MCIP (2012) and Ruth, William and Mike (2012) that changes in water

bodies will force the indigenous aquatic species to move to favourable locations

while increasing the intrusion of invasive species into the local area.

Construction of pond, stocking time and method are not affected by

climate change mainly due to the required spacing and capacity of ponds.

Furthermore, farmed fishes have no specific stocking period as long as all

conducive conditions are met. The increased water wave in the region seems to

have caused little or no capsizing of fishing boat. The low capsizing of boats

could be attributed to the experience of the fisher men in the region as most of

them are good water navigators and fisher men. This view is supported by

Uyigue and Agho (2007).

Climate change has impacted moderately and negatively on most aspects

of fish production in the region. This view is shared by authors such as Awosika

(1995), Uyigue and Agho (2007), Leon and Rota (2010), Sumaila and William

(2010), Ruth, William and Mike (2012) who stated that adverse conditions will

alter the conventional fish production and will result to decreased quality and

quantity harvest.

154

The opinions of both the farmers and the extension workers are similar

thus any observed difference is not statistical but could have occurred by

chance.

Climate Change Impacts on Farming Families in the Niger Delta Region of

Nigeria

Niger Delta like most coastal low lying regions of the world is constantly

faced with flooding of various degrees. However, due to increased and varying

extent of precipitation attributable to climate change, the occurrence of flooding

has increased with rivers and oceans easily overflowing their banks. This was

observed in the 2012 flooding that caused high extent of damage to agriculture

in the region.

Climate change seems to have impacted to a low extent on water

availability for irrigation and drying up of ponds and streams. This finding is

true to the region as artificial irrigation is seldom practiced and increased

precipitation has ensure constant supply of water to ponds and streams. This

view is supported by the findings of Lemke (2006), Uyigue and Agho (2007)

that stated that increased precipitation will cause excess of water but opposes

the view of Boko, Niang, Nyong, Vogel, Githeko, Medany and Yanda (2007)

that stated that there will be increased drought and water stress thus affecting

irrigation.

Increase in mortality rate tied directly to climate change in the region

have not be noticed or documented. This finding disagrees with the projection

155

by Cruz, Harasawa, Lal, Wu, Anokhin, Punsalmaa and Huu-Ninh (2007) that

there will be increased death rate due to climate change.

Climate change has impacted moderately and negatively on most farming

families though with some farmers reporting that the extent of impact is slightly

high on cost of production (input and labour cost) as well as on net profit from

farming thus impacting highly on poverty level in the region This finding is in

agreement with that of Uyigue and Agho (2007), Bhusal (2009), and Miguel

and Koohafkan (2010) that stated that difficulty and cost of agricultural

production will increase with decreasing returns to the farmer.

Findings of the study revealed that significant difference does not exist

between the mean responses of the farmers and the extension workers on the

perceived impacts of climate change on farming families in the region, as

indicated by the t-test. Any observed difference is not a statistical difference,

but a mere chance which could have resulted from sampling error.

Coping Strategies that can be Adopted for the Alleviation of the Impact of

Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

The farmers and the extension workers strongly agreed to construction of

foot bridges with wood, stones and sand bags as a coping strategy mainly due to

its affordability and suitability and not waiting for government. This strategy is

really in use in the region as the past 2012 flood did submerge roads as reported

by the National Daily (2012).

156

The respondents disagreed with planting deeper than the usual planting

depth as a coping strategy likely due to the specified planting depth for various

crops. If the depth is increased beyond the required, the plants may not

germinate well (and die in the ground suffering the same fate as scorched

germination) or results to scanty germination as some of the seedlings may not

successfully pass through the increased depth to germinate. Sand filling water

logged area to reclaim lost land seems to be an expensive and tedious practice

as a coping strategy for an indigent farmer. Trips of sand to fill the vast water

logged area could cost the farmer a fortune he may not be able to afford. This is

probably the reason why they disagreed with this option as a coping strategy.

For changing profession entirely, most farmers interviewed revealed that

“farming is all they know and for the elderly, its already late to change

profession”.

The farmers likely disagreed to changing from production of agriculture

to marketing due to the vital role of local farmers as producers. On further

inquiry using the structured interview, the farmers simply reply “if everyone

switches to marketing, who will do the production for supplies to be marketed?”

Most farmers in the region are too poor to own boreholes in their farmers.

Secondly, the region being a coastal one records high occasion of rainfall during

each planting cycle. This is likely the reason why most crop farmers in the

region practice rain-fed agriculture. This view is supported by Uyigue and Agho

(2007).

157

The farmers and the extension workers agreed to most of the suggested

coping strategies. These findings are favoured by views of many authors such as

Wolfe (2007), Uyigue and Agho (2007), IPCC (2007), Bhusal (2009),

Chakeredza, Temu, Yaye, Mukingwa and Saka (2009), and Apata (2010) while

suggesting adaptive measures against climate change as contained in their

respective works.

The opinion of the farmers and the extension workers seem to be at

variance with each other largely due to varying degree of education, awareness

and experience in farming as well as their geographical location.

158

CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

Summary of the Study

The study was aimed at determining the perceived impacts of climate

change on agricultural production in Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The study

specifically determined the extent of perceived impacts posed by climate change

on animal and crop production, fishing and fish production as well as the

farming families and also explored the coping strategies for adaptation.

Based on the specific objectives of the study, five research questions and

five hypotheses were formulated. The hypotheses were tested at 0.05 level of

confidence at the derived degrees of freedom. Relevant literature were reviewed

and used to generate items for research instruments for the study while the

reviewed theories served as bases for explaining the concepts of the study.

The study was focused on climate change impacts in Niger Delta region

with special attention to Delta state, the most agriculturally affected state by

climate change in the region. The population for the study was 73,603

respondents made up of 73,513 registered farmers in 10 selected local

government areas and all the 90 extension workers in the Delta state.

Proportionate stratified random sampling technique was used to select 1% of

contact farmers from each studied LGAs (strata) while all the extension workers

141

159

were used because of their manageable (small) size bring the sample size to 825

respondents.

A 103-item structured questionnaire and a 5-section structured interview

research instruments were face validated by three experts: two from the

Department of Vocational Teacher Education of the University of Nigeria,

Nsukka and one from the Department of Vocational and Technical Education at

the University of Benin, Benin-city. Out of the 825 copies (both the

questionnaire and interview) of the instruments administered, 730 (647 from

farmers and 83 from extension workers) were retrieved and found to be

adequately completed for use in answering research questions 1, 2, 4 and 5

while 79 (45 from farmers and 34 from extension workers) were found useful

for answering research question 3 which is on fish production. This is due to the

nature of the region as it is divided into land and seaward part and the farmers

are agricultural production oriented. Fish production is majorly available in the

seaward area of the region. The data were analyzed using mean and standard

deviation to answer research questions while t-test statistics was used to test the

null hypotheses at 0.05 level of significance at the derived degrees of freedom.

160

Principal Findings of the Study

Principal findings of the study include the following:

1. The perceived impacts of climate change on animal and crop production,

fishing and fish production as well as on farming families in the region are

moderate.

2. Climate change has not impacted much on the type of livestock reared in the

region nor caused a rise in the level of pest and disease infestation of animals

in the region.

3. Climate change has highly influenced rainfall pattern, caused high occasion

of farmland flooding thus affecting net profit from crop farming in the

region.

4. Climate change has influenced the spacing during planting and duration of

dry season (drought) but to a low extent.

5. Climate change has impacted highly on the access/distance to fishing ground

but has low impact on construction of pond, stocking time and method for

the fingerlings and on capsizing of fishing boat due to increased water wave.

6. Climate change has resulted to high occurrence of flood in the region and

has brought about rise in poverty level and in cost of production (input and

labour cost) as indicated by the farmers.

7. The farmers disagreed to either changing profession entirely or changing

from production of agriculture to marketing as coping strategies.

161

Conclusion

Findings of this study served as a premise for making the following

conclusions:

1. Majority of the farmers in the region are male, with 20 – 40 years of age, not

very educated and have 20 and above years of experience in agriculture (see

appendix O).

2. The perceived extent of impacts of climate change on agricultural production

in the region is moderate.

3. The opinion of the farmers and the extension workers on the perceived

impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the region is similar.

4. Flooding is a major threat to sustainable agriculture in the region.

5. Poverty level is on the rise as a result of low net profit from agriculture

caused by the negative impacts of climate change in the region.

Implication of the Study

The results of this study have provided empirical evidence of the impacts

of climate change in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria to be moderate. This will

provide guide to the government and relevant authorities on the extent of help

and information to be giving to the farmers to encourage production in the

region. Most of the farmers reported that poverty level is on the rise. This is

good information to government for re-assessing the poverty level in the

country and providing current index.

162

Opinion of the farmers and the extension workers seem to be at variance

with each other on coping strategies. The farmers are probably still engaged in

obstinate farming practices and/or strategies. This is an indication that the

farmers and the extension workers are information apart thus requiring re-

orientation of the farmers and/or the extension workers in the region to generate

and spread unified, teachable and adoptable strategies to combat the felt impacts

of climate change in the region, in Nigeria and beyond.

Recommendations

Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations have

been proffered:

1. Extension workers should be continuously trained and educated on current

information about climate change and sent out to enlighten the farmers. This

will enable them to update and synchronize ideas with the farmers.

2. Farmers in the region should be encouraged by providing incentives and

subsidizing inputs for them. This will go a long way in improving production

especially as most farmers agree to continue cultivation even with the

observed changes.

3. Most crop farmers in the region practice rain-fed agriculture. With the

altered rainfall pattern the farmers are unable to effectively predict the trend.

Thus it is necessary for the government and other relevant authorities to

163

constantly provide information on rainfall distribution ahead of time to help

the farmers plan.

4. Fish farmers should be trained by government and well-meaning local and

international organizations on recent fish keeping practices suitable in this

era of climate change. Fishermen should be provided with standard fishing

gears especially motorized canoes and boats to enable them travel less

tediously to the long distance in search of the displaced (school of) fishes for

a good catch and as well a means of encouraging continue fishing in the

region to reduce hardship.

5. Farmers, especially the animal farmers should be encouraged to use

improved breeds/species. It is observed that the farmers still rear the same

species and types of animal without consideration of change. This has a bad

impact on the growth of the sector in the region as species’ range is changing

due to average weather variation.

Suggestions for Further Studies

1. A study of similar nature should be carried out in other states in the Niger

Delta region or other states and areas of Nigeria.

2. The economic impacts of climate change on Agriculture in Nigeria, with

projections of current impact on future economy of Nigeria as well as predict

future agricultural trend.

164

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177

APPENDIX A

UNIVERSITY OF NIGERIA, NSUKKA

SCHOOL OF POST-GRADUATE STUDIES



(AGRICULTURAL EDUCATION SECTION)

Questionnaire on Climate Change and Agriculture in Niger Delta

Note: Kindly fill the questionnaire honestly as possible as any information given here will be treated as confidential and will be strictly used for the purpose of this study.

Part I: socio-economic characteristics

Please complete the information below by checking [√] appropriately

1. Sex Male [ ] Female [ ] 2. Age Below 20 [ ] 20-40 [ ] Above 40 [ ] 3. Educational status: No formal education [ ] Not very educated [ ]

Higher education [ ] 4. Inclination to agriculture: Farmer [ ] Extension worker [ ] 5. Years of experience in agriculture: Less than 20years [ ] Above

20years [ ]

Part II; climate change impact on agriculture

Please indicate by checking [√] on the response category that best suits your opinion

The response categories are:

High Extent = HE (4) Moderate Extent = ME (3) Low Extent = LE (2) No Extent = NE (1)

Section A: Impact of climate change on animal production. To what extent has climate change affected livestock rearing?

S/NO ITEM HE ME LE NE

1. Type of livestock raised

2. Breeding (cycle)

3. The duration for pregnancy (Gestation period)

4. Growth rate of livestock 5. Pest infestation and spread of diseases

6. Death of young ones/still birth

178

7. Restlessness of the animal

8. The duration it takes to mature

9. Feed consumption

10. Availability of grassing land for grazing 11. Mortality rate

12. Water consumption

13. Quality of meat 14. Livestock yield

15. Destruction of animal houses

16. Per cost of rearing the animals

17. Livestock product marketing

Section B: Impact of climate change on crop production.

To what extent has climate change affected the cultivation of crops?


18. Clearing of farmland

19. Planting month

20. Spacing during planting

21. Planting depth

22. Germination of crop seeds

23. Weed growth

24. Quantity of fertilizer application

25. Pest and disease infestation of crops 26. Pest and disease control

27. Rainfall pattern

28. Growth rate 29. Maturation of crops

30. Harvesting time/period

31. Quantity and Quality of produce 32. Storage and Marketing

33. Scorching of seedlings

34. Flooding of farmland

35. Duration of dry season (drought) 36. Erosion/leaching occurrence

179

Section C: Impact of climate change on fishing/fish farming.

To what extent has climate change affected fishing?


Fish farming

37. Construction of pond

38. Stocking rate of fingerlings

39. Stocking time and method for the fingerlings

40. Type of fish raised

41. Breeding cycle and Egg hatchability

42. Quality and Size of fries/fingerlings

43. Growth rate of the fishes

44. Feed consumption

45. Feeding period/time

46. Disease infestation of the fishes

47. Death rate in the pond

48. Quantity/Yield of fish

49. Pond temperature

50. Availability of water for ponds

51. Marketing of harvested fish Fishing

52. Access/distance to fishing ground

53. Fish density in an area

54. Loss of fishing gear

55. Capsizing of fishing boat due to wave

56. Sizes of fish caught

57. Number of fish per catch

58. Distribution of fish species in an area

59. Loss of fishermen

60. Algal and water hyacinth growth

Section D: Impact of climate change on farming families.

To what extent has climate change affected the farmer and the farming

families?


61. Water availability for irrigation

62. Drying up of ponds and streams

63. Risk of sickness

64. Spread of disease

65. Damage to Building

180

66. Damage to roads and bridges

67. Roof damage by acid rain

68. Drainage system damage

69. Poverty level 70. Loss of live (mortality rate)

71. Development

72. Heat stress 73. Flood occasion

74. Type/difficulty of work done on the farm

75. Cost of production (input and labour cost)

76. Net profit from farming

Section E: Adaptation strategies

These strategies can be adopted in my area in response to climate change The response categories are:

Strongly Agree = SA (4) Agree = A (3) Disagree = D (2)

Strongly Disagree = SD (1)

Adaptation Strategies SA A D SD

77. Using improved crop varieties and animal breed

78. Change planting/stocking time

79. Use of mulching materials for crops and shades for animals

80. Using early maturing plants/animals

81. Using nursery for transplantable crops

82. Mix cropping

83. Practicing land and/or crop rotation

84. Planting deeper than the usual planting depth to prevent scorching

85. Using intensive fertilizer and/or manure application for crop production

86. Change of harvesting date

87. Expansion of farming land

88. Sand filling water logged area to reclaim lost land

89. Switching to intensive management of livestock

90. Skipping storage but processing and marketing immediately affect harvest

91. Changing from production of agriculture to marketing

181

92. Sinking of boreholes in farm to ensure water availability/artificial irrigation

93. Collection of runoff water in ditches for drought periods

94. Switching to fish farming rather than fishing

95. Construction of foot bridges with wood, stones and sand bags

96. Raising walls with sand bags and/or blocks to divert flood water

97. Construction of drainage system or dam within farm/household

98. Subsidizing of agricultural inputs by relevant authorities

99. Setting up of housing programmes for displaced farmers

100. Resettlement of communities from hazard zones

101. Giving the affected farmers financial support

102. Vaccinating against diseases

103. Change profession entirely

Thank you for your help.

182

APPENDIX B

UNIVERSITY OF NIGERIA, NSUKKA

SCHOOL OF POST-GRADUATE STUDIES



(AGRICULTURAL EDUCATION SECTION)

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE NIGER

DELTA AREA OF NIGERIA.

Structured Interview.

Do you think climate has changed? Yes [ ] I don’t know [ ] No [ ]

If Yes above, explain the nature of these changes to agriculture, specifically to:

Section A: Animal production. ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Section B: Crops production. …………………………………………………………………………………………..…………...……………………………………………………………………………...………………………...…………………………………………………………….......

Section C: Fishing/fish farming. ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Section D: Farmer/ farming families. ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

In general, would you say climate change has impacted Negatively or Positively to

agriculture in this area , and to what extent?

.................................../..................................................................................................................

Section E: Adaptation strategies

In what ways do you try to cope with these changes in climate?

…………………………………………. …………………………………………. …………………………………………. …………………………………………. …………………………………………. …………………………………………. …………………………………………. …………………………………………. ……………………………………….....

…………………………………………. …………………………………………. …………………………………………. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Thank you for your help.

183

APPENDIX C

Map of Nigeria showing Niger Delta States

Abia (1), Akwa-Ibom (2), Bayelsa (3), Cross River (4), Delta (5), Edo (6), Imo (7), Ondo (8) River (9) Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org

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APPENDIX D

Map of the Niger Delta Region

185

APPENDIX E

Global Impacts of Climate Change

186

APPENDIX F

Causal Factors of Climate Change

187

APPENDIX G

Pictorial Representation of the Greenhouse Effect

source: www.climatechangeconnection.org

188

APPENDIX H

Acid Rain

Processes involved in acid deposition (note that only SO2 and NOx play a significant role in acid rain). From Wikipedia, 2013.

189

APPENDIX I

Scorched Farmland

Source: A snapshot by the researcher, 2013.

190

APPENDIX J

Local Farmer’s Flood Inundated Area and Degraded Water

Source; NEMA-AOO, 2010

RISEN WATER LEVEL

191

APPENDIX K

Flooded Rural House

RISEN WATER LEVEL

192

APPENDIX L

Mulching Materials:

Using palm front as Mulching materials to control scorching effect of the sun


193

APPENDIX M

Mulching and Ridging to Control Effects of Climate Change


194

APPENDIX N

Sampling Procedure

Respondents Population Sample drawn

Farmers 73,513 735 (1%)

Extension Agents 90 90 (100%)

Total 73603 825

LGA REGISTERED FARMERS

(100%)

SAMPLE USED

(1%)

Aniocha South 7,32 7

Bomadi 5,351 54

Burutu 2,326 23

Isoko North 5,167 52

Isoko South 16,857 168

Ndokwa East 17,500 175

Ndokwa West 4,950 50

Patani 11,616 116

Ugheli North 7,574 76

Ugheli South 1,440 14

Total 73,513 735

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APPENDIX O

Percentage Distribution of the Respondents According to their Socio-Economic

Characteristics

S/N Variable

Inclination to agriculture Farmer Extent worker

1. Sex: Male

Female 2. Age (years): Below 20

20 – 40 Above 40

3. Educational status: aNFE bNVE cHE

4. Experience (years): Less than 20 20 and above

F % F % F-total (%)

391 60.4 55 66.3 446 (61.1) 256 39.6 28 33.7 284 (38.9) 75 11.6 4 4.8 79 (10.8) 401 62.0 60 72.3 461 (63.2) 171 26.4 19 22.9 190 (26.0) 193 29.8 -- -- 193 (26.4) 396 61.2 25 30.1 421 (57.7) 58 9.0 58 69.9 116 (15.9) 249 38.5 20 24.1 269 (36.8) 398 61.5 63 75.9 461 (63.2)

Note. a = No Formal Education

b=Not Very Educated

c=Higher Education.

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