THE UNITED STATES NAVAL WAR COLLEGE

FUNDAMENTALS OF WAR GAMINGby

v, i Francis J. McHughg

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3rd Edilion: Mo.-e"h 1966

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p.) NAVAL WAR COLLEGENewport, R.I.

1 March 1966

FOREWORD

This publication presents a descriptioniof the fundamentalsof war gaming, its history, and some of the techniques employed

* in war games. It is intended primarily for the use of residentstudents at the U.S. Naval War College. It should also providea source of background information for other military officersand researchers concerned with war gaming.

Fundamentals of War Gaming is the work of Mr. Francis J.McHugh, Operations Research Analyst of the Staff of the WarGaming Department at the Naval War College. Mr. McHugh haslong been a war gaminy enthusiast and has been closely asso-ciated with war gaming at the College for many years.

The Naval War College is deeply indebted to the variousauthors and publishers whose worlds have been used in preparingthis text.

SUBMITTED:

H. F. FISCHER, 4K.

Director, War Gaming Department

APPROVED:

F. H. SCHNEIDERChief of Staff

* .. ,-.-i.*•

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER PAGE

I INTRODUCTION TO WAR GAMES .... . ... 1-1

Simulation ..... ................. ... 1-1Conflict Situation .... ........... ... 1-2War Games ........ ................ .. 1-2Models ......... .................. .. 1-4War Game Models ..... ......... . . 1-5Other Elements ......... ............... 1-7War Game Director or Controller ..... .. 1-7Control Group ..... ............. .. 1-8Players ........ ................. .. 1-9Spectators ....... ................ .... 1-10The Purpose ..... ............... .. 1-10Specific Purpose or Purposes ......... ... 1-11Types ........ ................. ... 1-13General Purpose .... .......... . . . . 1-13Scope and Level . ..... ............ .. 1-13Number of Sides .............. 1-16Amournt of Intelligence. .......... 1-17Methods of Evaluation ... .......... .. 1-18Basic Simulation Techniques ....... . 1-21

Mixed Simulation Methods ............ ... 1-22Other Methods of Classification ..... .. 1-23The Value of War Games ............. .. 1-25Limitations ...... ............... .. 1-29Game Theory .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 1-31

II HISTORY OF WAR GAMES .... ............ .. 2-1

Chess .......... ................. .. 2-1Military or War Chess ... .......... .. 2-1Vogue of Military Mathematics ...... .. 2-2Introduction of Additional Features . . . 2-3Early War Games .... ............. .. 2-6New Methods of Evaluation ......... . .. 2-11German War Games, 1880 to World

War II ...... ................. ... 2-13Japanese Use of War Games .......... .. 2-18Allies, Woxld War 1. ............. .... 2-19War Games in the United States ...... ... 2-20Gaming at the Naval War College ........ 2-42

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CHAPTER PAGE

III RULES, PROCUL If 3, AbNTD DAT1 ............ 3-1

The Conflic: Situation ............ ... 3-1Conduct of the Game . ......... . 3-8Kinds of Rules ................. ... 3-8Amount of Detail .... ............ ... 3-9Models ...... ................. ... 3-10Basic Game Cycle .... ............ ... 3-10Moves . . . ................. 3-11Function of the Rules; .......... ... 3-15Evolution of the Rules ............ ... 3-16Data ....... .................. ... 3-21Umoires ....... ............. . . . 3-25Probability ..... .............. .. 3-28Expected-Value Models ........... ... 3-31Stochastic Models ... ........... ... 3-32Choice of Models .... ............ ... 3-32

IV MANUAL GAMES ..... ............... ... 4-1

Advantages ..... ............... ... 4-1Limitations . . ............. 4-3Simulation Requirements. ......... .. 4-5The Duel Game ..... ............ .. 4-9Naval War College Board Games ...... 4-10Submarine Tactical Game .......... .. 4-24Hexagonal Grid Systems ............ ... 4-27Naval War College Chart Games ..... .. 4-28Command and Staff Department

Manual Game ... ............. 4-31The Schoc of Naval Warfare

Strategic Game .... ............ ... 4-34Naval Command Course Manual Game. . .. 4-37JCS Politico-Military Desk Games. . .. 4-39Landing Force War Game (LFWG) ..... .. 4-41TACSPIEL and THEATERSPIEL ........ .. 4-42Monopologs ..... ............... ... 4-45Other Manual Games .............. ... 4-47

iv

I CHAPTER PAGE

V THE NEWS AND NEWS GAMING .... ......... ... 5-1

History of the NEWS .... ........... .. 5-1The War Gaming Department ............. .. 5-3General Description of the NEWS ..... .. 5-4Area of Operations .... ............ ... 5-8Forces ........... .................. .. 5-8Command Centers ..... ............. .. 5-11Command Headquarters .... .......... ... 5-17Umpire Area ....... ............. ... 5-17Communications, Control, and

Equipment Rooms ........... .... 5-24The NEWS Damage Computer ........... ... 5-28System Capabilities .... ........... .. 5-31Equipment Limitations ..... ....... .. 5-32Scaling Factors. and Other Gimmicks. . . 5-33Manual Techniaues ......... ............ 5-35Types of NEWS Games .... ........... .. 5-36Curriculum Games ......... .......... .. 5-37Fleet Games ......... ............. .. 5-46Game Desig-.i and Rules .... .......... .. 5-50Rules ........... .................. 5-52Programming ....... ............... .. 5-53Participants ...... ................ .. 5-55Briefings and Rehearsals ............ ... 5-56Critiques and Post Game Reports ..... .. 5-56Demonstrations. .... .............. 5-57

VI COMPUTERS AND COMPUTER GAMES ........... ... 6-1

Rigid Umpiring ...... .............. .. 6-1Rigid-play Games ..... ............. .. 6-4Development of Computing Devices

and Systems .................. 6-6Binary Representation . ........ 6-9Digital Computers ...... ............ 6-14Stored Programs ...... ............. .. 6-15Developing a Program .... ........... ... 6-16Programming Languages .... .......... ... -19Computer Processing .... ............ 6-19

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CRAPTZR PAGE

Computer-Assisted Games ... ......... ... 6-21

Computer Gaming ....................... E-23Time-Step and Event-Store Games. ... 6-25Some Advantages and Disadvantages

of Computer Gaming .... .......... .... 6-27Navy War Games Prograxii Computer Games . -30

Strilze Warfare Model Mark II ........ .. 6-30Anti-Air Warfare Systems Interaction

Model .. .... 6-31Sea Warfare Intermediate Model

(SWIM) ..... . . . 6-32

SSBM Detection Model ..... ........ ... 6-34Embarkation Planning Support Model.. 6-35Supporting Arms Model ... ......... ... 6-35Ship-tc-Shore Model .... .......... .. 6-36

Sealift I ............................. 6-36Barrier Submarine Computer Game.. . ... 6-38

APPENDIX A - ChANCE DEVICES .... ............. ..... A-i

AP IX B - PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS ... ........ .. B-I

APPE=DIX C - A GLOSSARY OF WAR GAMING TERMS ........ .. C-I

APPSHDIX D - REFERENCES ........ ................ ... D-1

V,

S-CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION TO WAR GAMES

Military officers, unlike other professional men,cannot practice their profession--war--except in time ofwar. Furthermore, when war does come, they may be pro-mDtod rapidly, and assigned to J1 that are far beyonutheir paacetimt experience. Consequently, throughout agreat deal of history the military has developed or hassponsored and supported the development of methods andtechniques that will permit them to practice their pro-fession in time of peace. One such technique is basedon the simulation of war and is known as "war gaming."

Simulation. A simulation is an operating represen-tation of selected features of real-world or hypotheticalevents and processes. It is conducted in accordance withknown or assumed procedures and data, and with the aid ofmethods and equipment ranging from the simplest to themost sophisticated. John Clerk, a landsman with no actualexperience in the ways of the sea, revolutionized British18th century naval tactics by using a table-top for anocean and wooden blocks to represent ships. In today'sworld Polaris missiles are test fired from machines thatsimulate the motion of a submarine. An accountant rep-resents the past business of a firm by rows of figures;a high-speed digital computer simulates many things, aflow of traffic, a global air battle, and so on. Manyaspects of naval and air warfare are simulated on the NavyElectronic Warfare Simulator, a large and complex systemdesigned specifically for-that purpose.

Simulation provides the means for gaining experienceand for making and correcting errors without paying thereal-world penalties. It offers opportunities to testproposed modifications in a system or process, to studyorganizations and structures not yet in being, to probepaLSt, present, and future events, and to utilize forcesthat are difficult or impossible to mobilize. Simulation

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is of value as an educational device and as a heuristicdevice. One of its major forms, employed for both pur-poses, is the war game.

Conflict Situation. A situation in which two or moresets of interests represented by persons, sides, militaryforces, or nations are actively competing for the samegoal, or have opposing desires and objectives, is known asa "conflict situation." A game of chess, a group of auto-mobile manufacturers competing for consumers, a submarineattempting to penetrate a hostile barrier, a nation striv-ing to gain control of a vital sea area while a seconddoes everything within its means to deny that control areall examples of conflict situations.

War Games. Both in and out of the military services,training or testing exercises and maneuvers employingwholly, or in part, real forces and weapons and conductedunder varying degrees of field conditions are often re-ferred to as war games. Traditionally, however, the termis employed to describe conflict situations in which theoperations are imaginary rather than real and when all oft-he forces, weapons, areas, and interactions are simulated.*it is in this latter sense that the term is employed inthis text, and for current purposes the following defini-tion is presented:

*The first war game conducted in 1824 was a theoretical

conflict between imaginary forces. An early Naval War Col-

lege definition called war games, "exercises in the art of

war, either land or sea, worked out upon maps or tableswith apparatus designed and constructed to simulate, as

nearly as possible, real conditions." 1 9 According to Young, 8

the pow international Encyclopedia of 1916 (Vol. 28, Dodd,

Mead and Co., New York) described a war game "as an imaginarymilitary operation usually conducted on a map and employing

various movable devices intended to represent the opposing

forces, which are moved about according to rules reflecting

conditions of actual warfare."

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. p A war game is a s.mulation. in accordance with prede-t. rmined rules, data, and procedures, of selected aspectsof a conflict situation.* It is an artificial--or mores•trictly, a theoretical--conflict". . . to afford a prac-tiLce field for the acquirement of skill and experience inthe conduct or direction of war, and an experimental andtrial ground for the testing of straitegic and tacticalplans. ,,i

Following World War II the concepts and methodologyof war gaming were applied successfully to non-militaryproblems. This resulted in the development of "business,""political," and other specialized types of war games.Since many of these had nothing whatever to do with war,the term "operational gaming" has come into use to definethe application of gaming techniques to non-military situ-ations. It is also used to mean all war games, militaryand non-military. The definition of war gmnes given aboveis also the definition of operational games.

War games evolved from military chess which in turnS. grew out of the ancient game of chess. The chief objec-

tive of both chess and military chess was to furnish amuse-ment, although in some of the military chess games thereseems to have been an intent to include some measure ofmilitary training. When the first war game was devised in1824 for the serious purpose of simulating actual militaryoperations, it appeared obvious to the originator, Lieuten-ant von Reisswitz of the Prussian Guard Artillery, thatthe term "war game" was not an appropriate title for hisinvention. It had been applied to the military type chessgames and implied a pleasant pastime rather than a seriousendeavor. However, he did use the name war game ".

only because he could not at that time find one more suit-able." 1 0 Since then there have been other attempts to find

*The Dictionary of United States Military Terms for

Joint Usage, 1 December, 1964, defines a war game as "Asimulation, by whatever means, of a military operation in-volving two or more opposing forces, conducted, using rules,data and procedures designed to depict an actual or assiimedreal life situation."

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what mlqht be considered a more appropriate name for thesimulation of military conflicts. Thus, as early as 1911,Captain W. McCarty Little, USN, who intrnduced the game tothe Naval War College said: ". . that the name, 'WarGame,' has had much the came depreciatinq effect as theterm 'Sham Fight' has nad with regard to Field Maneuvers.To avoid this the Army hid recourse to the expression 'MapManeuver.' We, of the Navy, may in like manner say 'ChartManeuver,' -nd we have lately decide& so to do."'I Morerecently the term "operational simulation" has appeared asa possible repipcement for the traditional name, war game.Some writers retain the name but qualify their definitionby a phrase such as "sericu-, use of playing." Despitetheae proposals, the name war game (ox., in its >ruaderaspects, operationai cave) has never been uprooted, eitherby edict or suggestion. This may be because the title istoo deeply enbedded in the history and literature of thecubject, or perhaps it is due to the more basic reason thatwas liscovered by von Reisswitz, one cannot find a moresuitable title.

Depending upon the available equipment and reason forplay, a war game may employ any one or a combination ofthree basic methods of simulation: manual, computer, andmachine. The manual method uses such tools as game boards,maps, measuring devices, tables and graphs. The Lomputermethod employs general purpose digital computers. Machine:imulatioP are conducted'on equipment such as the NavyElectronic Warfare Simulator which is designed especiallyfor wmr gaming. However, regardless of the equipment andtechniques; ,very game is conducted in accordance with aset of rules or procedures. These are known as the "Rulesof the Game," ur thV "Modiel of the Game."

Models. A model ic a representation of an object orstructure, or an explanation or description of a system, aprocess, or a series of related events. Thus, a globe isa model of the earth; a flow chart is constructed to rep-resent a communication system; a set of equations is formu-lated to serve as a model of a sector of an economy. Somemodels "look like" what they represent, others are analoguein nature, and a third type is symbolic.

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Models are never intended to be anything more thanuseful approximations of reality. The globe merely dupli-cates tha salient features of its massive counterpart.A flow chart omits inessential currents and counter cur-rents. A system of equations includes only the key vari-ables. The details and variables incorporated into anymodel are those that are feasible and that are deemednecessary or desirable for the purpose for which the modelis constructed.

Abstractions of broad over-all processes might be con-sidered to be "macro" models; representations that are some-what detailed in nature, and that are focused on a segmentof a process, "micro" models.

War Game Models. During the early days of war gaming,the word model, if employed at all, was used to designatethose moveable pieces that to some extent resembled theforces or units they represented. The contour map, thechart of an ocean region, or the game board was a model ofthe battlefield or battle area. Later, and due, perhaps,in large measure to the introduction of digital computersand the entrance of mathematicians and other scientists in-to the field of war gaming, the term model, as applied towar gaming, began to be used in a less restricted fashion.

When a war qame is conducted by means of a computer,it is necessary to analyze in advance the entire process,to select the features essential to the given problem, to

specify every step to be taken, to determine and providefor alternative sequences of events, and to furnish inquantitative terms each item of data. Such a precise andcomplete description of the chosen aspects and processesof the conflict situation is in effect a model which servesas the basis or guide for the computer simulation. Theconception and construction of the computer war gare modelare affected by the purpose of the simulation and by thecapabilities of the computer.

War games that are not conducted on a computer, butare played by manual means with or without the assistanceof a computer, or on the Navy Electronic Warfare Simulator,

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are also conducted in accordance with rules and proceduresthat reflect the nature and purpose of the game, and thesimulation techniques that are employed. In recent yearsthese rules and procedures, as in the case of computergames, have often been called the model, or in complexsimulations, the models of the game.

The models or rules for non-computer games may be lessprecisely formulated than those constructed for computersimulation. More as well as a greater variety of inputsrepresenting forces, operational and weapons character-istics, and the like are ordinarily possible. Many tacti-cal decisions that must be considered and programmed on acomputer are made by the players. The results of inter-L.tions are evaluated by a control group in accordance withrules and functions which they are frequently permitted tooverride, or these decisions may be based solely on theirprofessional judgment. New forces may be injected duringa game or old ones reactivated, if, in the opinion of thedirector, such actions will contribute to the purpose forwhich the game is being played.

In many war games a variet-y of situations and inter-actions are simulated: a landing operation, naval forcesengaging air units, submarine ",ersus antisubmarine forces,and so on. Each requires its own rules or specializedmodel. In addition to these representations of the variousoperational and battle pr6cesses, procedures or specialmodels are usually required to control functions that arenot features of the real-world events being simulated, butthat are necessary to carry out the simulation. A comnu-nications flow diagram for a control group furnishes anexample of such a model. The model of the complete wargame, then, would constitute a macro model, a composite ofthe special or micro models plus an explanation or descrip-tion of their interrelationships. That is, a war gamemodel is the set of all the procedures and rules requiredfor the control and conduct of a war game. When simulationmethods are not altered, certain procedures might bechanged or some specialized models or sub-models might beused in more than one type game. Thus, an air-to-air modelmight replace a less sophisticated model without affectingthe over-all game model, or a surface action model might

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be utilized in several different kinds of games.

The model of a war game provides for the types offorces, the level or levels of command decision, and the

modes of support, communication, and interactions which

have been selected from the real-world, and includes a ZJ

description or explanation of the processes needed to

carry out the simulation. The model accepts inputs such

as the number of forces, logistic factors, and so on, andproduces outputs in the form of planes splashed, ships

sunk, loss of effectiveness of units, residual capabili-ties, and objectives obtained.

Other Elements. The simulation equipment and the

models or rules that are designed or chosen to guide the

simulation represent but a portion of the over-all gaming

effort. A game needs a purpose, that is, a reason for its

planning and conduct. Some sort of situation must be de-

vised, and an area of operations, forces, and weapons se-

lected so that together they will lead, naturally, into a

simulated operation that will achieve the selected purpose.

Consideration should be given to the form in which the re-

!ults obtained during and from the game will be recorded,

if a critique is to be conducted, and if so, what materials

aind equipment are necessary. Requirements for maps, forms,

slides, and transparencies must be determined, and arrange-

ments made for their preparation and reproduction. The co-

ordination of the pregame planning for all of the elements

necessary to play a game is usually the responsibility of

the Director or Controller of the game.

War Game Director or Controller. The individual

assigned the responsibility for the preparation, play, and

postgame crit:que or evaluation of the simulation of a con-

flict situation is usually known as the Director or Control-

ler of the Game. He may stop the play at any time, when,

in his opinion, the game has served its purpose. In case

of disputes and disagreements, he makes the final decision.

During certain types of simulations the director has the

authority to reverse or modify the assessments of umpires

or the evaluations made by mechanical or electronic devices.

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lHe may add new units or materiel during a game, or increaseor decrease the effectiveness of forces and weapons. Itis also his duty to see that the results of the game aresummarized and properly presented.

Control Group. This group comprises the director'sstaff. It exists in order to advise and assist him in theplanning, conduct, and evaluation of the war game. Themembers of the control group should be cognizant of allaspeL;. of the simulation, and should be furnished completeintelligence during the game of any areas over which theyexercise control.

The size of the control group depends upon the typeand scope of the game, and upon the simulation facilitiesthat are available. It is usually composed of a wellintegrated team of military officers and professional wargaming personnel.

The military personnel aid the director in the militaryrequirements of the pregame preparation. During the con-.uct of a game they monitor operations and logistics, andmonitor or evaluate interactions. One or more may act ashistorians, or form an "analysis team" to observe, to de-duce, and to present any lessons that might be learnedfrom the game. In some simulations certain members of thecontrol group may act as the "other side," or as lowerechelon commanders in order to generate the kind and amountof opposition and intelligence that the director thinks isnecessary for the purpose of the game. Members of the con-trol group who monitor or evaluate are usually calledumpires.

The war gaming personnel are concerned chiefly withgaming per se. They develop the models, prepare the pro-grams for computer or simulation equipment, and coordinatethe military requirements and the available facilities.During the play of a game they may be umpires, programmingofficers, etc. This group should function as part of theover-all organization in such a way that its members pro-vide the experience and continuity of gaming methodologythat is essential to smoothness of operations and for the

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4P development and "phasing in" of new gaming concepts andtechniques.

The control group may be assisted by war game orvisual aids specialists, i.e., draftsmen, whose duty it isto prepare the maps and other graphic materials, and tomaintain plots and situation maps. In addition, programmers,messengers, status board keepers, and clerical personnelare often required.

When mechanical or electronic simulation is employed,maintenance personnel are usually required; and in someinstances an engineering group might be assigned to developimprovements or design new equipment in accordance with theoperational requirements of the military and war gamingpersonnel.

Players. In most computer simulations the directorand control group determine and program the limited numberof decisions that the commanders of each simulated forcecould make, and provide methods so that the computer itselfmakes the choice. Once the game starts, there are no human

. * commanders of the forces represented, no human reactions toaffect the progress of the simulation. However, in manygames a group of participants employ simulated forcesaccording to their own plans and reactions and in pursuanceof an assigned or deduced mission. This group is known asthe "players."

Since most war games simulate an engagement or seriesof engagements between selected or the total militaryforces of two different nations or alliances, the playersare usually divided into two opposing teams, each repre-senting a range of command levels of one of the conflict-ing nations or alliances. Traditionally, opposing forcesand players are designated by different colors; red andblue, green and white, etc. The players act out theirassigned command roles, that is, they make the same deci-sions and take the same actions that they would if theimaginary forces and weapons under their command were realforces and real weapons. In order for a game to be suc-cessful, the players must enter, wholeheartedly, into thespirit of the play.

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The players represent real-world commanders; the con-trol group functions more as an all-seeing, all-knowing,strictly impartial deity.

Spectators. In addition to the control group andplayers, the progress of a game is often observed by spec-tators. There are two kinds: those that are interested,either from a military or gaming point of view, in watch-ing all or specific portions of the game; and, those whoare accidental spectators, that is, they should be in thegame,. but due to limited simulation facilities and per-sonnel requirements could not be absorbed into either thecontrol or player groups. The former need to be briefedon the purpose of the game, and given sufficient backgroundto enable them to follow intelligently its play. The lat-ter do not, as a general rule, derive as much benefit fromthe game as do the members of the control and player groups.Therefore, when possible, another game should be scheduledso that they may gain the benefit of active participation.

The Purpose. War games are not played for pleasure,although they may afford the designers and participants agreat measure of satisfaction--or even frustration--muchin the same manner as would the actual exercise of a pro-fessional function. They are conducted for a general pur-pose, and usually for one or more specific purposes thatire considered to be cormiensurate with the efforts expended.

The ideal aim nf every war game is to provide mili-tary commanders with both decision-making experience anddecision-making information that will be useful in real-world situations. In practice, however, it has been foundthat it is better to point the game toward but one of theseobjectives, that is, to select as the primary objective orgeneral purpose one of the following:

(a) Provide military commanders with decision-makingexperience, or

(b) Provide military commanders with decision-makinginformation.

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Thus, some games emphasize the first of these general pur-poses; others the second, although it is readily realizedthat by the very natire of gaming, all include both in onedegree or another.

The relationship between thb definition and the gen-eral purposes of war games is illustrated in Figure 1-1.

The general purpose of a war game is frequently statedby saying that the game is an "educational" (decision-making experience) or an "analytical" (decision-makinginformation) type game.

Specific Purpose or Purposes. In order to achieveone of the general purposes to any practical extent, it isdesirable to narrow the objective area. For example, agame may be conducted to provide decision-making experienceat one or more specified levels and types of command; anotherto provide information and data concerning the employment ofspecific forces or weapons systems, test an organization ordistribution system, or evaluate a type of operation or atactical doctrine. These particular reasons, whatever theymight be, are the specific purposes for conducting the game.They should be clearly defined.

The specific purpose of a game may be: To provide theplayers with experience in supervising a planned action ofthe operations of an attack carrier striking force when op-posed by enemy surface, subsurface, and air forces. Orgames may be played so that the participants can conduct asimulated amphibious assault based on their own plans, testa certain air defense formation, plan a future operation,or study an historical action. They may be used to developtactics for the employment of a proposed missile system, orto teach decision-making under the pressure of real-time andwhen intelligence is contradictory and incomplete. Gamesmay also be employed to give military commanders whose ex-perience has been limited to a particular field of opera-tions an opportunity to study and participate in activitiesof greater scope, or quoting the American Management Asso-ciation's purpose for one of their business games, "To makegeneralists out of specialists."

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OfSrTDAPT>Of A

COOWICT21TU3IO

TO Pin0VU T ] TO PSOVIO(

TA 16 £PLCAb.I TO

ft4A- W0*LP SITUATIOW

Figure 1-1

Types. As shown in Figure 1-2, war games may be clas-sified according to six categories, some of which have anumber of subdivisions. These categories are: purpose,scope and level, number of sides, amount of intelligence,method of evaluation, and simulation techniques.

General Purpose. When the primary purpose of a wargame is to provide the players w.L-h decision-making expe-rience, the game is known as an "educational" type game.When a simulation is conducted in an attempt to obtaininformation and data that will help the responsible com-mander to make decisions, the game is referred to as an"analytical" type game. As mentioned previously, educa-tional games have analytical overtones; analytical games,educational connotations. The participants in any gamedesigned and conducted to improve their decision-makingability obviously will receive and retain ideas and im-pressions concerning the relative merits of the plans,command structures, forces, and weapons systems that areemployed, and gain some knowledge of the area of opera-tions. This information should be of value in the plan-ning and conduct of real-world operations. Those whoorganize and participate in analytical games will, ofnecessity, have to consider the factors that enter intothe decision-making process.

ScoDe and Level. War games may range all the wayfrom a contest between two units of a single service to asimulated global conflict involving coalitions of nations,the effcrts of all services, and the impact of conventionaland nuclear weapons on military forces and civilian econ-omies. Games may be tactical, strategical, or a mixture ofboth. Some emphasize air operations; others, land or seaoperations. Gleographically, games may embrace a limited area,a single area of operatLins, or several areas of operations.Thus, a game could be played in a coastal area of, say,2000 square miles, and involve a convoy and its escortssailing from a harbor and opposed, possibly, by enemy sub-marines. Another might include divisions and missile bat-talions deployed along a portion of the German-Czechoslo-vakian border; a third, a global air battle involving

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4w

PURPOSE EDUCATIONAL ANALYTICAL

_ANGE OF COMMAND LEVELS

SCOPE AND k".ITARY SERVICES INVOLVEDLEVEL TYPE OF OPERATIONS

AREA OF OPERATIONS

NUMBER 1 2 n

OF SIDES

INTELLIGENCE I

METHOD OF FREE RIGID SEMIRIGIDEVALUATION

BASIC J

SIMULATION MANUAL MACHINE COMPUTERTECHNIQUE

Figure 1-2

WOO 65-29

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thousands of aircraft and hundreds of bases.

Related to the scope of a game is the range ofcommand levels that are to be represented. In a gamesimulating a tank battle the levels might vary from theindividual tank commanders up to and including thebattalion commander. An imaginary carrier group operationmay be played by participants representing command andstaff levels from the task group commander right down tothe commanders of individual ships. Or the lowest levelof command represented could conceivably be at the divisionlevel. Moving up the ladder, a strategic war game mayrange from the national. level to Army, Fleet, and equi-valent levels.

The scope and range of command levels of a gamedetermine, in part, the basic military units that will berepresented. If the lowest level of ground command isthat of army divi.iora =%mmander and staff, the smallestunit represented may be the brigade; if the lowest commandlevel of naval forces is the squadron, then the smallestunit might be the division, i.e., the smallest unit towhich a naval squadron commander would normally issue"orders.

When lower echelons of command are represented in awar game, the players may make the type of decisions thatare sometimes referred to as "decisions of encounter" ora number of such decisions with varying probabilities ofselection may be programmed in advance in a computer game.

These are the type of decisions that must be made ratherquickly; the sort that are constantly being made by smallunit commanders in combat. The decisions to change courseto avoid a torpedo or to open fire at an enemy tank areexamples of encounter decisions. In planning a course orcourses of action prior to a game, and during the play ofgames when the level of command represented is above theimmediate tactical level, the need for near-instantaneousreaction is much less, and the commander usually has time

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to consider and to weigh possible alternatives. Suchdecisions have been called "decisions that are setpieces."*

The scope and command levels of a gane stem directlyfrom the specific purposes for which the game is conducted.Because of the limitless scope and the many possible rangesand numbers of command levels, classification according toscope and level is less well defikned than classificationunder the other categories, it should include, however,the range oi command levels represented, the military ser-vices involved, the types of operations contemplated andan indication of the size of the area cf operations.

Number of Sides. A third category for the classifi-cation of games is based on the number of opposing sidesor interests. Under this heading are one-sided, two-sided.and n- or multi-sided games.

The most common military war' game is the two-sided.In this type of game two forces, two nations, or two coaliticnsoppose each other in a simulated battle, campaign, or war.

A one-sided game is conducted under two different setsof circuinstances. in the first a player or a team isittempting to reach a goal in a ninimum period of time, ofby employing the least ndinber of forces, etc. An exampleof such a geme might be the simulation of a replenishmentoperation when there is no enemy opposition. The objectiveis sLbply to complete the replenishment with the given forces

I*Pi-feszor William A. Reitzel, on page 37 of Background

to Decision B nAq, iNaval War College, June 1958) refers toa Naval War College lecture by Professor Simon as a sourceoi this method of classifying decision-making. ProfessorReitzel then goes on to say: ". . a warning shouid begiven in conneiction with this observation: the two typesare not unrelated - set-piece decisions often condition whatcan or cannot be done in an encounter situation, and encounterdecisions are often called for in the course of developingset-piece .ecisionAs."

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in as short a time as possible.

This type of one-sided game is essentially a trialand error method for approximating an optimum course ofaction, or for testing existing procedures. It is ana-l-tical in nature and -he problems it attempts to solveare often amenable to mathematical or graph.cal approaches.

The second type of one-sided gaime occurs when one sideis opposed by forces employed by the control group. Thissort of game permits the control group to confront theplayer team with situations specifically arranged to achievethe purpose of the game and to reveal to the players weak-nesses and em-issions in their plans and tactics.

One-sided games are not true games in the sense thatthere is no true opponent, no realistic conflict situation,no enemy to counter every move, to exploit fully everymistake. In the first type a single side is trying to dothe best that it can against a completely impartial Nature;in the second, the side is playing against a control groupthat is not trying to win, but that is using the game as ateaching tool.

Games are multi-sided when more than two conflictinginterests are represented. This is a rather common situ-ation in business and political games, but does not occurtoo often in military gaming. As an example in the militaryfield, the Japanese played such games prior to World War II.Teams of players represented such diverse nationalities andinterests as Russia, the United States, England, China,Japan, etc.

Multi-sided games are also known as n-sided games,where n is an integer greater than two.

Amount of Intelligence. When a game is conducted insuch a manner that all players have access to completeinformation on each other's plans and forces, the game isknown as an "open" game. If the players receive the amountand kind of intelligence that they would probably receiveunder the real-world conditions being simulated, the gameis classified as a "closed" game.

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The closed game with its realistically simulated flowof incomplete information is, as may readily be realized,the usual type of military game. The open game simplifiesprocedures and reduces space and control group requirements. •4For example, a manual game may be played in a single room,and with one set of simulated forces and battle area. The

players act, presumably, as if they possess only the amountof intelligence to which they are reasonably entitled. Theopen game balances the loss of real-world information pat-terns against a reduction in personnel, space, and timerequirements.

Methods of Evaluation. In an actual conflict a patrolmay sight an enemy tank, a ship pick up a plane on its radar,a submarine make a sonar contact, etc.; planes may besplashed, ships sunk or damaged, casualties inflicted, air-fields attacked, and so on. Sooner or later true or dis-torted reports of many of these happenings reach the variouscommand levels of the forces involved by messenger, radio,and other means of communication. In a simulated conflictsuch real-world effects are approximated and controlled bythree different methods of evaluation or umpiring. Thesteare known as the "free," "rigid," and "semirigid" methods.

Free umpiring is dependent upon the experience, thejudgment, and the objectivity of those members of tuecontrol group whose duty it is to determine contacts, assessdamage, and generate, monitor, and control the flow of intel-ligence. "At 1630 that Red aircraft gets an E."-4 contactbearing about 045." "Three Blue destroyers swnk, twolightly damaged; two Red submarines destroyed." "It willtake that messenger 20 minutes to report back to his commandpost," etc.

When experienced control group personnel are available,free umpiring is a quick and simple method of evaluationthat has worked well in many instances, particularly ineducational games of great scope and large and varied forces.An umpire can select. from among a broad range of realisticoutcomes one that is not only probable, but that also fur-thers the purpose of the game. The free type of evaluation hasalso proven of value in games that are conducted to plan andto rehearse future operations. 'i

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"Rigid umpiring is based on the models and data thatreflect real-world interactions. Contacts, intelligence,time delays, number of hits, and amount of damage aredetermined by the use of finctions and manual computation,by graphs, tables, and computing equipment. When manualtechniques are employed, rigid umpiring is a slow and some-what tedious process, and results in a low ratio of game toreal time. For instance, three minutes of game time in apre-World War II manual tactical naval game often requiredmore than thirty minutes of evaluation time. In the NEWS,however, much of the intelligence is received automatically,simulated radio nets handle a great deal of the flow ofinformation, and damage is computed and the results madeknown in about a second after a weapon is fired.

In some games both manual techniques and computersare employed. Certain types of evaluations are processedrapidly by the computer; others are handled by manualcomputations and graphical methods.

Rigid umpiring is most useful for educational gamesat the tactical level, and for analytical type games. Thedata employed are derived from past military engagements,and from tests, experiments, and exercises.

The semirigid method of evaluation combines bothtechniques.* It is employed when procedures have beendeveloped to assess rapidly some but not all situations.Qualified officers are then assigned to evaluate the latter.Thus, the results of conventional ground warfare might beassessed according to the professional judgment of theumpires; the effects of nuclear weapons by tables and curves.

In some games results are assessed according to rigidumpiring techniques, but the director or some members ofthe control group are permitted to vary the evaluations if,in their opinion, the outcome appears unrealistic, or ifsuch a change will contribute to the purpose for which thegame is played. Again, if some area of the game bogs downunder rigid evaluation methods, the director may step in

*Called free-rigid in earlier editions.

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-- ll II_ i .-... .- -

and render a decision in order to get things going. Thesegames are included in the semirigid type.

A simple example of damage assessment will serve toillustrate the basic differences among the three methodsof evaluation. During a game a commander skillfully maneuvershis submarine into position and fires a torpedo at a guidedmissile destroyer. Under the procedures of free evaluationthe umpire, observing the excellence of the sub commander'stactics (and perhaps being a submarine officer from way back),rules a hit. The umpire operating under rigid proceduresnotes that the torpedo has an 80 per cent probability of ahit. He consults a chance device. Hit: Or, no hit: (Ineffect, a computer follows the same approach.) Assuming thelatter result, if the game is conducted under the semirigidviethod, the director might accept the results, or he mightsay to himself: "That sub commander did a good job. Givehim a hit:" Or, "It will make a better game if that destroyeris sunk. Sink it:"

In the application of the three basic methods, evalu-ation procedures are generally designed to conform roughlyto the type or types of decision-making, i.e., encounter orset-piece, that will be employed during a game. Thus, ifevaluations are made only in response to direct and qpecificco-gand decisions and force actionis, the assessment systemis geared to the encounter type of decisior,-ni-king, andmight well be called "encounter-type evaluation." Forexample, intelligence gathering units such as patrols oraircraft are moved along specified routes. From time totime distances between these units or other units are meas-ured or estimated, contacts determined, and information dis-seminated. Again, a decision is made to fire a salvo of twosurface-to-air missiles at a specific enemy bomber. Therange at the time of launching is noted, hit probabilitiesare considered, and an assessment given. If the decisionto fire is not made, the bomber passes merrily on its way.In any of these instances, of course, each step could havebeen evaluated by rules, judgment, or by rules temperedwith judpuent.

The second type of evaluation procedure is associatedmore with the set-piece sort of decision-making, and for

l-2C

this reason may be termed "set-piece evaluation." Underthis procedure the evaluations are Lased on a sort of over-all picture, and not on a step-by-step process. Thus, aBlue convoy transits a general route from Port A to Port B.Red has submarines in the area. LoqseL, if any, to bothsides are determined from the detections and interactionsthat might logically occur durig this phase rather than

upon a detailed simulation and assessment.

Basic Simulation Techniques. There are three basicsimulation techniques: manual, machine, and computer.

t

1. Manual Games. Tn this type of gaime the forces arerepresented by models, pieces. pins, or symbols, and theparticipants move them about by hand on a board, map, chart,or terrain model which depicts the area of operations. Con-tacts and interactions betwteT. forces are evaluated inaccordance with the p.ýofessional judgment of the umpires,or by or with the aid of rules, manual measuring devices,tables, graph3: and formulas. These games are also called"handplayed" tames.

The manual game is the oldest type of war game.Because of its flexibility and low equipment cost, it isa useful technique, particularly for the simulation ofground warfare.

2. Machine Games. For the purpose of this text, ama,7hine game is considered to be a game conducted on equip-ment or systems designed and constructed for the oxpresspurpose of gaming. These systems include such installationsas the Navy Electronic Warfare Simulator (NEWS) at the NavalVir College, Newport, R.I., the Trainer of the Joint Mari-time Warfare School at Halifax, ind the Submarine TacticsAnalysis and Gaming Facil~ty (SUBTAG) of the Electric BoatDivision of General Dynamics.

In general, war gaming systems provide _lectro-mechanical or electronic aids for the movement and displayof forces, the simulation of sensors and communicationssystems. and umpire bookkeeping and evaluation. These systemsare, in essence, simply electromechanical or electronic

ii-21 4

versions of handplayed war games. Like their manualcounterparts, games conducted on such systems requireplayers and a control group.

3. Computer Games. These games are designed andprogrammed for general purpose digital computers. Whenthe data and program are loaded into the computer and thestart button is pressed" the computer itself simulates theconflict in accordance with the detailed instructions con-tained in the program, and then prints out or displaysspecified types of data.

Since all decisions in computer games are made bythe computer in accordance with predetermined proceduresand rules, they are sometimes called simulations rather thangames. Because digital computers are occasionally referredto as machines, computer games are sometimes called machinegames or machine simulation; however, it is usually clearfrom the context whether reference is being made to a machinegame as defined above, or to a game conducted on a generalpurpose digital computer.

Due to speed of play and ease of replication, com-puter games are powerful analytical and research tools.

Mixed Simulation Methods. In order to achieve betterthe specific purpose (or purposes) for which a game isplayed, it may be desirable or necessary to use two or eventhree of the basic simulation techniques and equipment. Forexample, a digital computer may be employed to assess damagein a manual game. Or it might also be used to simulate de-tailed engagements, or record the logistics situation. Thefacilities of a machine gaming installation can be utilizedto supplement a manual game, or manual techniques may beemployed in conjunction with machine games in order toinclude details that the system is incapable of simulating,or to increase the scope of play. Additionally, it is pos-sible to use a digital computer along with machine and manualmethods for accounting, damage assessment, and so on.

The mixing of available simulation facilities to meetthe requirements of a particular game enables the model

1-22

designer to balance the advantages of one (or two) tech-niques against the disadvantages of another. If a manualgame takes too long to play, a digital computer speeds theprocei -. If a machine gaming system cannot simulate groundwarfare in a theater play, or the search patterns of largenumbers of reconnaissance aircraft, manual methods can.When manual techniques are needed for a high-level educa-tional game, machine or computer support, alone or together,make it possible to include a greater number of selectedaspects, and to increase the tempo of play. Hence the wargaming centers of the future will most likely feature inte-grated manual-machine-computer arrangements, any part ofwhich will be able to be employed alone, or in conjunctionwith one or both of the other components.

The two simulation methods most commonly used in con-junction with each other are the manual and the computer.Games employing both these techniques are known as "com-puter--ssisted" or "manual-computer" games.

c her Methods of Classification. In addition to thesix ca egories previously described, games may be classi-fied i three additional ways:

According to the manner in which time isrepresented,

The method used for treating chance events, and

Free or rigid play.

W•en a game proceeds by constant and predeterminedintervw 1s, it is known as a "time-step" game. If the se-lected interval is three minutes, for instance, then allforces are moved every three minutes of game time and, atthe encý of each three-minute period, interactions are eval-uated End the status of forces updated. The shorter thetime-st2p, the longer the time required for play.

Games are also designed so that the play advances fromevent to event rather than by fixed intervals of time. Forexample, if there is no possibility of an interaction occurring

1-23

for twenty-five minutes of game time, the forces are moved i

for that period of time and then the situation is evaluated.Games employing this technique are referred to as "criticalevent" or "event store" games.

The terms "time-step" and "critical event" are gener-ally used when classifying computer games, although theycan be used in connection with some manual games.

In machine games, game time is usually continuous. Itmay proceed faster, at the same rate, or slower than realtime. Certain manual games also use continuous time. Whenthis occurs, player decisions may uoually be made at anytime, but the forces are moved as the situation dictatesand for discrete intervals of time.

Games, and the models upon which they are based, aresometimes classified according to the way in which chanceevents are handled. When the probabilities of the occur-rence of chance events are used as average values, the gameo- model is known as an "expected-value" or "deterministic"game or model. If chance devices such as dice or tables of

random numbeis are employed to determine the outcomes of5chance events, the game is called a "stochastic," "proba-bilistic" or "Monte-Carlo" game.

In the vast majority of pre-World-War-II games, theplayers, acting as military commanders and members of staffs,made decisions as they Would in the real world. This free-

dom to make decisions holds true in many of today's games.However, in some analytical games, player-decisions in allsituations are made in accordance with predetermined doc-trines, procedures and decision-rules. To distinguish be

tween the two types of play, the former are sometimes re-

ferred to as "free-play" games. Similarly, the latter"might be called "rigid-play" games. Some writers preferto call the first type a game and the latter, as in the

case of a computer game, a simulation.*

*".Smulations are to be distinguished from games. Asimlation is a model in which decisions and choices are de-

fined by explicit rules and procedures. A am is a model

in which some decisions are made by players.71-24 )

The Value of War Games. War games reflecting in somemeasure the realities of combat have been conducted by themilitary forces of various nations since 1824, and in amore idealized form for many years prior to that date.In the United States before World War II, war gaming waslimited to a very few service schools and the number ofprofessional war gamers could probably be counted on thefingers of one hand. The Second Conference on War Gamesheld at the University of Michigan in 1957 was attended byrepresentatives of more than fifty military and civilianactivities and groups. During the same year the AmericanManagement Association introduced its business game. Sincethat time such companies as General Electric and Inter-national Business Machines have employed games for trainingpurposes. In addition, a number of colleges are using gamesin their business, operations research, and internationalrelations courses. Today, more people and activities aregaming than ever before. This long and continuous use ofwar games, and the recent rapid growth in their popularityand scope of applications indicate clearly the value ofgaming to both military and civilian activities.

War gaming possesses the inherent advantages of simu-lation, and provides a methodology for studying and exam-ining almost any type of-military operation from a patrolaction to a major war. It ".. . offers the players thewhole world as a theatre, anT puts no limit to the forceseither in numbers or kinds." A 1914 article in the Scien-tific American observed: "Our army now numbers thousands -these gentlemen (officers at Army War College) play the mapgame with hundreds of thousands." 2 0

Gaming provides a means of gaining useful experienceand information in advance of an actual commitment, of exper-imenting with forces and situations that are too remote, toocostly, or too complicated to mobilize and manipulate, andof exploring and shaping the organizations and systems ofthe future. When, as in atomic warfare, there are no prece-dents, no historical examples to furnish guidelines, wargaming creates its own history of artificial wars. The gamesmay proceed at "fast time" or "compressed time," i.e., anhour in the simulated world of the game may take fifteenminutes of real time, or a month may take no more than aday. And when a critical situation develops, the game may

1-25

be slowed, or even stopped, so that the situation may beexamined in detail.

The preparation for and the conduct of a game illus-trate vividly to all involved the complexity and ineffa-bility of military operations, the difficulty of coor-dinating and utilizing the knowledge and conflictingopinions of experts in many fields, the need for employingbalanced forces, and the desirability of gaining and main-taining an over-all perspective. The participants are nottaking part in a round table Aiscussion where vague gener-alities will suffice, but are dealing with specific forcesand weapons within a time-space frame. They learn to appre-ciate the "other fellow's" problems, to see that theEstimate of the Situation is a dynamic and not a staticconcept. Almost unknowingly, the personnel concerned witha game begin to think about variations in strategy and tac-tics, in organizations and support, and the effect of suchchanges on the over-all scheme. In general, it might besaid that they learn more than they realize at the time.

As an educational tool the war game gives a colonelhis first opportunity to command a division, or an army,and to gain the insight and knowledge afforded by such anexperience. It places a task force at the disposal of anavy commander and allows an air force major to employ moreand better missiles and aircraft than the nation possesses.There are no peacetime budgetary limitations, no need forpeacetime safety considerations and practices. There isan opportunity to make mistakes, and to profit by them; -ohave one's actions and decisions meet the acid test of com-petition. " . . . the great secret of its (the war game's)power lies in the existence of the enemy, a live, vigorousenemy in the next room waiting feverishly to take advantageof any of our mistakes, ever ready to purcture any visionaryscheme, to haul us down to earth, . . ." The 1955 WarGames Conference at the University of Michigan, attendedby 43 representatives of the armed services, civilian re-search agencies, and universities, reached the followingconclusion: "War gaming is an extremely important educa-tional device for training senior officers--possibly thebest available in time of peace--."

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The war jame is a valuable and proven method for devel-oping and evaluating operational concepts and plans. Itenables a commander and his staff to review assumptions,detect inadequate or untimely support, verify time andspace factors, and reconcile divergent opinions. The gameprovides a m2ans of testing ideas, of coordinating servicesand branches, and of exploring and considering all possiblecontingencies prior to the drafting of the final operationalplan. During World War II the Germans frequently used bothone and two-sided war games for testing and research pur'-poses. Such simulations were employed to test the plansfor the initial operations against France and against Russia;another aided in the evolution of Operation Seeloewe, theplanned but never attempted invasion of England. Morerecently, some elements of the 'leet "tried out" their planson the Navy Electronic Warfare Simulator, and the War GamesDivision of the United States Continental Army Command hastested the feasibility of proposed operational and organi-zational concepts by using gaming techniques.

The simulation methods employed in war gaming have beenutilized to fight the same engagement over and over in orderto determine the effect of chance on the outcome, and thento run through additional series to measure, in turn, theresults of variations in key &arameters. Carmonette is anexample of such a simulation.' It runs through, perhaps, 50times, the same tank battle* between Red and Blue tanks, andcomes up with a casualty distribution for both sides. Thenthe characteristics of, say, the Blue tanks, are changed andanother series of engagements conducted. A comparison of thetwo casualty distributions provides one method of appraisingthe results of the changes in the Blue tank characteristics.In a similar manner, missile site locations may be evaluatedagainst air raids at varying altitudes, speeds, and aircraftspacings; theoretical optimum attack characteristics deter-mined for the penetration of assumed air and surface defensecapabilities, etc. Interestingly enough, in what was prob-ably the first war gaming of naval forces, this concept of

*In addition to tanks, this game includes limited numbersof infantry, mortars, and self-propelled guns.

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iA

many play-throughs was followed. . . . as often as&!spatches with descriptions of these battles were broughthr-me, it was my practice to make animadversions, and crit-icise them, by fighting them over and over again, by meansof the aforesaid small models of ships, which I constantlycarried in my pocket; every table furnishing sea-room suf-ficient on which to extend and maneuver the opponent fleetsat pleasure; and where every naval question, both with re-spect to situation and movement, even of every individualship, as well as the fleets themselves, could be animad-verted on; .. ."5

Because it can be played over and over again, the wargame makes it possible tj do what cannot be done in thefield, that is, to vary characteristics, to extend thescope and value of limited peacetime experiments, to studythe effects of atomic exchanges, to practice operations inany areas and with weapons of both the present and thefuture. Currently, war gaming appears to be one, if notthe test, method available for visualizing and preparingfor tomorrow's battles and for developing the organizationsand tactics of the future. "Even if it is not p-ssible totest plans conclusively with the techniques now available,it is at least possible to glimpse the elusive and manifoldshape of future conflicts and to harden, by fictional expo-zure, the officers who may some day come face to face withthe hideous visage of the real thing." 9

The German general, Rudolf Nofmann, wrote in 1951:"Practical examples . . . have proved the high value ofthese theoretical exercises and have savedI the German sol-diers much blood and labor. Perhaps modern warfare and newweapons will also indicate new ways of arranging war games.However, these games will always retain their high indis-putable importance as one of the many theoretical aids.' 3

This save officer also czitions: " . the value of wargames should not be overestimated." Like everything inthis world, war gaming has its limitations.

I

~1-2

ILimitations. While war games are far less expensive

than field maneuvers and fleet exercises, the preparativnand conduct of even a game of limited scope and number offorces requires a great deal of time and work. (Thisexpenditure of effort is offset somewhat when the model orprocedures are used many times. For example, the war, games

rules formerly used at the Naval War College were employedfor all the games then conducted at the college. They were

revised from time to time to take into consideration changesin naval warfare.)

It is difficult, if not impossible, to include theimpact of intangibles in a war game. . . missing arethe impressions of combat, .... the genuine tensions and4t1e far-reaching responsibility." 3 Variables such as tra-dition, leadership, training, and esprit de corps areusually treated as constants. All pilots are equallyskilled; all guns and missile systems of the same type,equally lethal. While such simplifications are necessary,and indeed are part of all models and simulations, the limit-ing effects of such restrictions must be considered in ap-praising a game.

In addition to the intangibles and the assumed homo-geneity of similar forces, the use of simulation equipment

and computers ordinarily limit the number of forces andweapons, and restrict in one manner or another some of theircapabilities. Such constraints are overcome to some extentby aggregation, by omitting weapons that presumably will notbe employea or that are considered to have a negligible ef-fect on the outcome, and by various other subterfuges. Forexample, in the Navy Electronic Warfare Simulator, aircraftmay fly at any one of five predetermined altitudes, hitprobability curves are approximated by linear functions, andthe rate of fire of a weapon is assumed to be constant for

all ranges. Speed is correctly represented; rates of turnare approximated and are the same for all fozces. Thus,--and this fact is not always realized--some characteristicsmay be simulated realistically; others may approach but notattain that goal. While these factors may have litcle effecton the outcome of a game, they should be appreciated and con-sidered in every evaluation.

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When damage assessments are according to the free or-,emirigid method, there is always the possibility of judg-ments being rendered by umpires who have had very limitedor no experience in the particular type of situation being

*I evaluated, or of national, service, or branch prejudice,either consciously or unconsciously, entering into thepicture. A classical example of the latter instance oc-curred during the Japanese pre-battle gaming of Midway.The outcomes of rigid umpiring were sometimes set asideand new assessments injected--always in favor of the Jap-anese--with the result that they derived an o erly opti-mistic appraisal of their chances of success.

Educational games usually depict a conflict betweenthe farces of two different nations. While in some casesthere is a distinct tendency to assume that the "friendly"forces have a 1970 capability, and the "enemy" forces pos-sess weapons of 1960 vintage, in most instances force andweapon characteristics are approximately correct, or whenintelligence is lacking, the opponent is credited with thecapability of the friendly side. However, both sides (inthe game) usually employ the planning processes, the doc-trinae, tactics, the values of human life, and of militaryworth of the friendly side. Such a game, therefore, is notso mucI. a contest between the military concepts and tenetsof two• •ations as it is a competition between the plans ofthe military officers of one nation.

The permissible movement and endurance of forces, thereliability of weapons systems, detection capabilities,and the effects of interactions between weapons and targetsare often based on fragmentary--and sometimes conflicting--data, on peacetime or controlled experiments, and upon thememory and experience of members of the control group.Interpolation, simplification, and subjective judgment,must, at least in some instances, decide the issue. Resultsand conclusions, therefore, need be tempered by the assump-tions, the methodology, and the numbers which are injectedinto the simulation.

It sometimes happens in an educational type game thata player is in command of simulated forces that do not makeany contact with the enemy. He may become bored, which is

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I"natural; or disillusioned with the Whole idea of war gaming,

1 Jwhich is scarcely fair. War itself, which is the subject ofthe simulation, provides many such i.r•stances. However, itis possible in a war game to keep these cases to a minimum.

In almost every educational game there is a tendencyon the part of a few players to "fight the problem," tosee the limitations of the simulation but not the advan-

tages. Perhaps events do not always happen as they thinkthey should, or interactions evaluated according to theirliking. However, these things happen frequo-ntly in the worldthat is being represented, and do not necessarily indicatethat the simulation is at fault.

Game Theory. The term "game theory" is heard fre-quently during discussions of war games, and at times thetwo names appear to be employed synonymously. Basically,they represent separate and distinct concepts. Gametheory, or as it is sometimes called, "the theory of gamesof strategy," is a mathematical theory which, under certainconditions, can be employed to determine the optimun, strat-egy or course of action to pursue in a conflict situation.War or operational gaming, on the other hand, is the simu-lation of a conflict Pituation. As pointed out byAndlinger, operational gaming " . . has no relation to'game theory," . . .

Thomas and Deemer 21 showed that game theory may beused in lieu of the analytical game to solve generalizedtactical problems of limited scope. But currently, atleast, its chief value appears to be that of a potentialdecision-making aid. Both 0. G. Haywood, a former AirForce colonel 2 " 23, and Captain R. P. Beebe, USN2 4 , devel-oped analogies between the doctrine of military decision

*Gerhard P. Andlinger. "Business Games--Play One:"Harvard Business Review, March-April 1958. p. 115-125.

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(The Estimate of the Situation*) and tne theory of games,and concluded that the terminology and concepts of gametheory have possible military decision-making applications,and may, in some respects, be superior to the planningprocess now in use.** In developing his analogy, Haywoodemployed two situations from World War II, the Rabaul-Laeconvoy situation of 1943 and the Avranches-Gap situationof 1944; Captain Beebe used an example from a war game.

The first paper on game theory was presented in 1928by the American mathematician, John von Neumann; the firstextensive work on the subject was published in 1944 byNeumann and Oskar Morgenstern (Theory of Games and EconomicBehavior, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.).Since that time a number of books have appeared on thetheory, among the an interesting and readable introductionto the subject, The Complete Strateqyst, by J. D. Williams.(McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York, 1954).

*The need for a formal military planning doctrine, at

least as far as the Navy was concerned, was revealed by earlynaval war games. "This process wiAch is thus briefly sum-marized is known as the estimate of the situation, and is thefirst grand step in the game; and let it be noted that it isthe war game that has led us to adopt this systematic methoddescribed. It was the game that sought the method, and notthe method that sought the game." 1

**" there are certain conclusions which appear to be

acceptable at the present time. The use of the matrix formfor representing the interaction of strategies is superior tothat recommended in the Naval Planning Manual. It should beused now as the Commanders summary and visual aid in placeof the Manual recommendation . ... It is not recommend,!das the estimate." 2 4

"Game theory provides the idea of a matrix to presentthe data required for a decision and a methodology for solu-tion of the matrix. If a commander can not make a matrix ofthe opposing strategies for the situation, he is not preparedto make a decision. Unless he does made such a matrix, he mayoverlook the proper decision." 2 3

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In its very simplest form, game theory states that ifa matrix is arranged as in Table 1, with Red Strategies,

Table 1

R1 R2B1

-20 20B2

10

B320 -10

R R B B1I, R2, etc. along the top, Blue strategies, 1I, B2, and soon along the side, and with quantitative payoffs from the

point of view of Blue inside the boxes, then Blue can deter-mine a course of action that will guarantee him a minimumpayoff regardless of the strategy that Red chooses.* Thus,if Blue se strategy he is assurid of a gain of 5 if Redselects 2, and more if Red chooses 1.

Immediately, the question arises: Where do the numberscome from that appear in the strategy matrix? "In a real-world situation (aside from gambling and certain other fairlysimple games), one does not know accurately the results ofthe strategies from which he may select.' 2 • However, " . . .

in making a decision the Comm&ider actually does express apreference for various outcomes."24 His scale is qualitativerather than quantitative. For example, if a commander wereusing game theory to assist him in arriving at a decision,the matrix of Table 1 might look something like that shownin Table 2. The next question is: What happens if thecommander's evaluations of the int.ractions of the variousstrategies are incorrect, or if he neglects to include allof Red's possible strategies, say R3 and R4 ? "If a commander's

*Red can arrange a matrix with payoffs from his point

of view.

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* evaluation of the situation is incorrect, his decision maybe in error regardless of how he arrives at this decision." 2 3

Table 2

Rl ,,R2

Very Bad Excellent

B2 Good Fair

B3 Excellent Bad

Exactly how, or by what means a commander reaches adecision--whether he employs the standard military process,game theory, or a crystal ball--is not the function of wargaming. In war games as in the real world that they simu-late, it is the decisions and their implementation thatcount, not the method or methods by which those decisionswere reached. Educational games are designed and conductedto provide the players with experience in the decision-making process, to gi'e them an opportunity to attempt tocarry out their plans in the face of enemy opposition, totest, if they wish, the relative merits of decision-makingtheories and methods, and to select for tlhamselves the onethat best suits their nature. Analytical games are playedto provide some of the data and information that are neededin order to make decisions, regardless of the manner inwhich the decisions are reached. If game theory is usedas an aid to decision-making, then the results of analyticalgames might furnish numbers or words that can be used in theboxes of the strategy matrix, 2 5

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CHAPTER II

HISTORY OF WAR GAMES

From early times men have played games that featuredthe moving of pieces on a board in accordance with statedrules. In at le. 3t one of these, chess, the pieces wereendowed with characteristics roughly representative of afew of the features of the military arms and. forcescommon to the times. Hence, it is usually agreed thatthe war games of today Sad their origin in this ancientand still popular game.

Chess. Chess appears to have originated as a Hindugame known as "Chaturanga," although similar games wereplayed in Iraq as early as 3000 B.C. The Hindu game re-quired four players. The pieces represented elephants,horses, chariots, and foot soldiers--the arms then inexistence. They were moved on a board according to fixedrules, but the effects of the various moves were determinedby the throw of dice. Today's chess game, a later andsomewhat simplified version of the older game, is suffi-ciently complicated for most players. It is a two-sidedgame in which the players employ forces with varying in-dividual values but equal aggregated strength. Eachplayer has complete knowledge of his opponent's disposi-tion, but not his intentions. The players move alter-nately, not simultaneously, as in war games. Each plays towin, that is, to checkmate his foe. The results are deter-mined by the actions of the players and are not subject tovarying degrees of chance.

Military or War Chess. In Ulm in 1644 ChristopherWeikhmann invented the so-called "King's Game," a game

A intended to train royalty in the art of war. It was inreality a modification of chess and was played on anenlarged board. Each player received thirty pieces: oneking, one marshal, one colonel, one captain, two

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chancellors, two heralds, two chaplains, two knights, twocouriers, two adjutants, three bodyguards, three halberd-iers and eight private soldiers. There were fourteendifferent moves somewhat similar to those in chess.Because this game used pieces that were more closelyidentifiable with the military forces of the day than didthe ordinary game of chess, it was called, as were many Isimilar games that followed, "military," or "war chess."The inventor of the game stated ". . . it was not designedto serve merely as a pastime-but that it would furnishanyone who studied it properly a compendium of the mostuseful military and political principles."1' 0

Vogue of Military Mathematics. In Prussia in thelatter part of the 18th century it became fashionable toconsider war as an exact science, and particularly as abranch of applied mathematics resembling geometry. 1 0

Military formations were rigid; military tactics, highlyformal. "The methods of exact science, and particularlymathematics, were applied to every phase of warfare. iThis gave rise to what was called the 'vogue of military fmathematics.' It was axiomatic that above all a militaryleader must be a great calculator." 8 ". . . war itselftended to resemble a game played by gentlemanly contestantsaccording to specific rules."9 Of this period Von derGoltz, an outstanding general of the 19th century said"A true strategist of that epoch did not know how to leada corporal's guard across a ditch without a table oflogarithms."10 ". . . Not only did military men opentheir arms to the new departure; savants did likewise.Learned men wrote of military science and the practical •application of mathematics to war. The science of war wasraised to a place in the curriculum of the most renownedseats of learning." 8 Military chess games devised duringihis era mirrored the pzevailing theories of formal tacticsand their relationship to mathematics.

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Introduction of Additional Features. At someplacealong the line in the development of war chess threeimportant features were introduced. These were: first,the concept of aggregation, that is, having one piecerepresent a group rather than an individual or unit;second, depiction of terrain features; and, third, theassignment of a director to supervise the employment ofthe pieces. Just when these features first appeared isnot clear, but they were all included in a game inventedby Helwig in 1780.

Helwig was the Master of Pages at the court. of theDuke of Brunswick. His gar- was designed to arouse theinterest of young noblemen in the military problems ofthe day and at the same time to teach them something aboutmilitary science. In this game the playing area was achess-like board divided into 1666 small squares. Thesewere tinted with various colors to indicate differenttypes of terrain features. For example, red squaresrepresented mountains; blue, water; light green, marshes;dark green, forests; black and white, level ground; andhalf-red, buildings. A dotted line across the middle ofthe board divided the sides at the beginning of the game.Each side was given a fortification at opposite cornersof the board. The object of the game was to capture theenemy's fortification, just as in chess the object is tocapture the opponent's king.

The pieces were similar to the pawns of chess butrepresented battalions of infantry or squadrons of cavalry.A number of players were permitted on each side and anadditional person acted as the director of the game. Thepieces were moved according to rules that were similar tochess. Thus, infantry traveled a stated number of squaresin a straight line; light cavalry behaved somewhat similarto the knight in a chess game.

Helwig's game was rather successful and spread toFrance, Austria, and Italy. As could be expected, a numberof imitations and variations soon appeared. One thatattracted a great deal of attention was devised atSchleswig in 1797 by Georg Vinturinus (Venturini), a writer

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on the science of war. In that year he published the"Rules of a New War Game for the Use of Military Schools."The British Military and Naval Magazine of December 1827referred to Helwig's game as the "War Game of the Con-tinent," and to Vinturinus' as the "New Kriegsspiel."

In Vinturinus' game the board represented an actualarea of operations, the Franco-Belgian Border. It wasdivided into 3600 squares which were marked to indicateterrain characteristics. As in Helwig's game, thisresulted in square or rectangular mountains, plains, andwater areas. Some pieces represented brigades, infantryor cavalry; others of various shapes and sizes depictedfootbridges, parapets, magazines, etc. Artillery, convoys,provision wagons, and bakeries were included. The moves ofthe pieces approximated the real world. Troop movementswere restricted in winter, and the rules attempted to con-sider their feeding and support.

Vinturinus' game was intended chiefly for use in themilitary schools. It related the play to a geographicalarea and included attempts to introduce the restraintsimposed by weather and logistics. "In keeping with theprevalent technical theories of warfare, complex rulesgoverned the movement and the fighting of the troops.These transformed the game into an extremely tediousoperation, which was welcomed with enthusiasm by membersof the military profession." 8

Military writers of the 19th century criticized thegame although it is sometimes difficult to knc¢i whether itwas the game or the military concepts of the age whichwere being censured. Von der Goltz wrote: "This war gameis a bad product of the refined military education of theperiod, which had piled up so many difficulties that it wasincapable of taking a step in advance." 1 0 The Journal ofthe Military Institution of the United States, IV: (1883),as quoted by Ycung,5 says of Vinturinus' game: "His workis a masterpiece of military acuteness, combined withtechnical and tactical absurdities. However, that ageloved whatever appeared difficult and abstruse. The (New)Kriegsspiel, in reality, was merely a play, a series of

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W'

tricks, the utmost benefit of which could only be anacquaintance with the conditions and principles which wereregarded as essential to the management and maintenance ofarmies. A knowledge of the rules and principles requireda long and attentive study. They evidently failed intheir object, the intelligent development of the ideas ofa student of the art of war."

In the military chess types of war games, of whichthere were many versions, the game features seem to havepredominated. Apparently these games were, .in general,designed first as a pleasant pastime for officers andmembers of the nobility and secondly, as a means of "sugarcoating" their contacts with the largely prevailing ideathat the operations of war could be reduced to rigid rules.War chess resembled rather than simulated warfare. In someways it might be considered as having the same relationshipto later war games as the game of Monopoly bears to currentbusiness games. The games required a great deal of time tolearn and their successful play depended more on a knowledgeof the rules than on a knowledge of war. What, if any,transfer of learning from the game to real-life situationstook place is not apparent. Sayre, however, makes thiscomment: "They (war chess games) probably illustrated thescience of war, as taught at that time, better than itcould have been represented on a map or on the ground."IO0

About 1730 a Dutch engineer conceived the idea ofusing contour lines to delineate river bottoms. Towardthe end of the century contour lines began to be used torepresent relief on land maps.* Somewhat later Napoleon'stactics changed the character and concepts of Europeanwarfare. Together they furnished the means and the motivefor supplanting military chess with more realistic repre-sentations of warfare.

. . . the tactical game for land forces . . . didnot attain real value until maps were produced which showedthe configuration of the ground."' 1 0

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--- a-.

Early War Games. The first -axe to break away frcm

the chessboard pattern was invented in 181.1 by von

Reinswitz. The terrain was modeled in sand. Troop unitswere represented by wooden blocks and their movementswere no longer restricted to chessboard squares. Thefollowing year an improved form of the game was presentedto the kirg, Frederick William III. In this game theterrain was modeled in plaster at a scale of about 27inches to the mile. Woods, b,'ildings, roads and streamswere painted in color. Troop units were depicted byporcelain blocks. "Later, in 1816, when the Grand DukeNicholas came to Potsdam, the King spoke to him enthu-siastically of the new invention, matches were gT up inhonor .)f the Grand iuke, who gave himself up to it withextraordinary ardor; and the following year, when PrinceWilliam visitecd the Court of Russia, a war game was impro-vised at Moscow by joining several card games together andtracing the terrain thereon in chalk."*

It is not mnown whether the "tracing the terrain" on

the card tables, the reports that Napoleon planned hiscampaigns 4.n advance by maneuvering colored pins on maps,or just wh~t inspired von Reisswitz's son, but ½n 1824the younger von Reisswitz, a lieutenant in the PrussianGuerd Artillery, transferred his father's game to a mapand developed it into a practical too! for the simulationof military conflict s`#uations. This game is generallyconceded to be the fa. true war game,8,I0 although somewriters give that credit to the o:Jer nian. 7 ,11

Young von Reisswitz's game was an immediate successand received a warm welcome from many high rankingPrussian officers. "It is told that in 1824, VonMueffling, then Chief of the General Staff, consented towitness an exhibition of the game. He received the playerssomewhat coldly, but as the operations expanded on the map,

*Quoted by Young 8 from H.O.S. Heistand (transl),Maj., Office of Asst Adjutant General, U.S. Army, "ForeiqnWar Games," from the Revue Militaire de L'Estraner, 1897.

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the old general's face lit up, and at last he broke outwith enthusiasm: 'It's not v game at all, it's a trainingfor war; I shall recommend it most emphatically to thewhole army."' The general kept his word and issued aletter which ". . . may be said to be the formal introduc-tion of the war game to the Prussian army.' In this hesaid: "Whoever understands the art of war can, in thisgame, perform the functions of a commander of troops

. even if he . . has never seen the game played."10What better recommendation could any war game have?

The scale of the maps used was about eight inches tothe mile. Forces were represented by properly proportionedand labeled lead pieces, red for one side, blue for theother. Dividers and scales were employed to measuredistances and ranges. The game was supervised by adirector. Prior to the game he issued to both sides inwriting the information that they would possess in asimilar real-world environment, that is, the general situ-ation known to both contestant teams and a special situationfor each side. The teams then prepared written orders.During the game the moves represented two minutes of real

mtime, but at the discretion of the director several movescould be made at one time. The play continued until apredetermined result was achieved, or until the directorconsidered Vat•t the game had attained its objective. Inthis regard von Reisswitz remarked: "It is not a questionof winning or losing as in cards or chess, . . theapprobation of one's comrades is the best possible reward.Whoever follows out his plan best, adopts the simplest andmost natural ieans to the end, and departs least from thegeneral idea of the operation, will have won the match,even though he may have lost more pieces than his adver-sary .The advantages they wi~l derive from it willbe to acquire skill in reading maps, in the selection of Imovements best suited to the different arms of the service,

in the choice of positions, etc. The interesting discus-sions which are sure to follow a match will be of in-contestable value in the study of the military art." 1 0

The game was conducted according to the "Instructionsfor the Representation of Tactical Maneuvers under the

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4V

Guise of a War Game." These rules had been prepared byvon Reisswitz with the assistance of other officers.They were baised upon realistic troop movement rates,time delays between the sending and receipt of messages,and upon the concept of realistically limited intelli-gence. Only those forces that could be seen by theenemy were placed on the map. Thus, the players gainedonly the intelligence that they would presumably gainunder similar field conditions. Interactions betweenforces were assessed with the aid of dice. The remainingstrength of forces sustaining losses was indicated bysubstituting pieces of corresponding value. Casualtyrates appear to have been based on theory and not uponexperience factors.

The classification of this war game according to thecategories shown in Figure 1-2. Chapter I, might looksomething like this:

1. General Purpose ........... ... Educational

2. Scope and Level

(a) Range of Command Levels Battalion to Brigade

(b) Military Service Involved Army

(c) Type of Operations . . . Tactical, Ground

(d) Area of Operaticns .... 4 square miles

3. Number of Sides ......... .. Two

4. Amount of Intelligence . . Open

5. Method of Evaluation ..... ... Rigid

6. Basic Simulation Technique . . Manual

While initially, at least, von Reisswitz's game wassomewhat limited in scope, it brought together for thefirst time most of the features and underlying concepts

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of modern war games. The chief criticism cf the gamestemmed from the idea that young officers commanding,even on a map, forces larger than they normally commandedwould lose interest in their lesser real-world assign-ments. 1 0 Today, on the contrary, the opportunity affordedby war games for officers to gain experience at highercommand levels is considered to be one of the most valuedfacets of the games.

"The War Game of Prussia," published in The UnitedService Journal, Part I, London, 1831, compares Helwig'sgame with that of von Reisswitz's. Concerning the lattergame, the following observation was made: "There can beno doubt that much advantage to the officers of the armywould follow the introduction of this game, as it wouldtend to preserve a knowledge which now exists only amongthose who had attained rank during the last war, whosenumbers are fast diminishing, and whose dearly boughtexperience must soon be lost to the service."

The enthusiastic acceptance of the game by high rank-ing officers caused a certain amount of envy among vonReisswitz's fellow officers and immediate superiors andhe was transferred to a border fortress at Torgau. There,apparently becoming disheartened Dy what he considered tobe an injustice, the young officer committed suicide threeyears after the appearance of his war game. 1 0

F Von Reisswitz's game, as were some of the military

chess games that preceded it, was often referred to as"Kriegsspiel." It was played in the Prussian Army and atseveral Kriegsspiel clubs such as the Magdeburg aodBerlin Clubs. Count von Moltke who became Chief of theGerman General Staff in 1857 was, throughout his entirecareer, a strong believer in the war game and supported andencouraged it in every possible manner. The originallimited tactical scope of the game was extended to encompassincreasing larger military situations until in 1848 a gamewas conducted in Berlin that represented a war betweenPrussia and Austria. This appears to have been the firststrategic war game.

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'/4,1

Changes in the art of war and greater experience withthe game led to modifications of the rules of play. The'extension of the area of operations and the increase inthe number of forces engaged resulted in the adoption ofmore rules to cover the larger number of possible contin-gencies. These actions caused further reexaminations ofthe procedures with the idea of reducing the number ofrules and of simplifying their application. (This processhas been repeated many times throughout the history of wargaming.) The Berlin War Game Club and such authors asDecker, Witzleben, and von Trotha contributed to thesemodifications and changes in the rules of the game. "Thework of von Tschischwitz which appeared in 1862 made someimprcvements in the way of less complicated rules andmore practical methods of computing losses." 1 0

The Seven Weeks' War of 1866 (Prussia vs Austria) andthe Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71 provided procedures anddata based upon experience rather than theory. Thisresulted not only in revisions of the rules of the game.but in the introduction of new evaiuation techniques. Inaddition, the surprising success of the Prussian Army inboth wars led to the adoption of the war game by othermilitary powers. According to Sayre,I0 Captain Baring ofthe British Army stated in his version of the war gamepublished in 1872 for the British service: "The increasingimportance which is now attached to the game may be, insome measure, due to the feeling that the great tacticalskill displayed by the Prussian officers in the la t e war(Franco-Prussian) had been, at least partially, acquiredby means of the instruction which the game affords."Captain Little of the Naval War College said: ". . . itwas generally admitted that the War Game was a notablefactor in the result." 1 Colonel Middleton of the BritishArmy commented: "The game of war, like the breech-loader, is by no means a new idea, and it doubtless owesits p:resent fame to the late wonderful successes of itsinventors, the Prussians. Now, without going so far assome of its greatest admirers do, who attribute thosesuccesses principally to its use by the Prussians, I haveno doubt that the lessons taught by tolerably frequentand careful playing of the so-called 'W-r Game' must be

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of great value to the thinking soldier anxious to masterhis profession. "13

New Methods of Evaluation. Up to the time of theFranco-Prussian War, the results of interactions occurringduring war games seem to have been determined entirelyby the rules of the game. After the war, according toLieutenant Meckel, an instructor in the war school atHanover, ".. . military ideas ran into more practicalchannels, when a general desire for practice and trainingin troop leading existed, and the war game was encouragedby imperial decree, it received a new, extraordinary, anduniversal enthusiasm--which, however, is not to beattributed to the old systems with their complicatedrules, but which rather existed in spite of them. It isa question whetheýr in the German Army there was a wargame played in strict conformity with the rules. Theexercises, under the leadership of officers of high rankwho had no liking for the old systems, cut loose more orless from the cast iron rules and assumed, under a freeleading, the form of serious exercises in the leading oftroops."10

The directors used the rules that were helpful andreplaced those that in their opinion were unrealistic orthat hindered the progress of the game with decisionsbased on experience and judgment. In other words, thedirector conducted the game according to the semirigidmethod. Meckel, in his Instructions for the War Gamepublished in 1875 acknowledged the trend and proposed thatthe director be freed from some of the rules, but that hefollow them in assessing the effects of fire.

The following year General von Verdy du Vernoispubiished A Contribution to the War Game in which hedescribed a method of war gaming ". . . without rules,tables of losses, or dice." 1 2 In this game all evaluationsof contacts and assessment of damage were left to thejudgment of the umpire. It was the first example of thefree meth(. of umpiring.

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4 p

Von Verdy'u game was a two-sided game between Red andBlue. Prior to the play of the game, a general situationSwe issued to both sides, and a special situation to eachopponent. The contestants then prepared their initialplans and orders. Two rooms were required. In one was" the umpire and his assistant (control group) and a general

map of the area of operations drawn to a scale of 2 to 3 jinches to the mile. The second room was for the alternateuse of the Red and Blue teams and contained a larger scalemap of the area. Blocks represented the forces. Eachcormander was given a sufficient numbpr of these blocks todepict all possible deployments of his coýmmand. Forexample, a battalion commander might be issued two half-battalion blocks, four company blocks, as well as addi-tional blocks representing platoons and patrols.

During the game one side explained their intendedmovements and actions to the umpires while the other madeplans and studied the situation on the large scale map inthe adjoining room. The teams then reversed rooms. Thedirector correlated their intentions in time and space,evaluated intelligence and assessed damage, and explainedthe prevailing situation to one team at a time. Theassistant director kept an account of the movements andinteractions for post game discussions. When one side wasviewing the map only those enemy forces that were visiblewere displayed. Other enemy forces were either covered orremoved.

The only data supplied to the director in this gamewere the assumed distances occupied by troop formationsand the rates of march per minute under ideal conditions.For instance, a battalion took up 200 yards; a troop, 100.Fresh infantry on good roads marched 80 yards in a minute;cavalry trotted at 235.12 The director was at liberty todegrade these figures to account for fatigue, terrain, andpoor roads. Distances traveled by bodies of troops werecomputed and transferred to the map by means of scales anddividers.

While von Verdy left almost everything in the handsof the director, and Meckel chose a middle course, other

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adherents of the war game endeavored to devise proceduresthat would facilitate the conduct of games based on therigid method. One of the most successful of theseattempts was Captain Naumann's Dax Regiments-Kriegaspielwhich appeared in 1877. Naumann proposed that a "standard"value based on experience be used to assess losses, andthat variations be evaluated by use of a "multiplier"applied to the standard.

German War Games, 1880 to World War II. The war gameoriginated in Germany and practically all of its earlydevelopment took place in that country. After the Franco-Prussian War other nations began tc experiment with anduse war games, but Germany still maintained the greatestinterest, published the largest amount of literature onthe subject, and found the most applications.

In the German Army two-sided games were called wargames proper; one-sided were referred to as map exer-cises. Situations and forces were selected so as toprovide a series of games at varying command levels.Games simulating the tactical employment of units rangingfrom patrols to regiments were conducted at each regimentalheadquarters one evening per month during the winterseason. These were called "regimental war games" due tothe places in which they were conducted and not becausethe forces involved were always of regimental size.What were known as the "Great War Games" were used chieflyfor the manipulation of divisions and the study of theirtransportation and supply problems. These games were forthe senior regimental, division and corps staffofficers. General staff officers plnyed the "StrategicWar Game" which embraced the operations and employment ofarmies. Methods of evaluation tended to shift from therigid to the free or semirigid methods, although the rigidmethod was continued to some extent in games involvingsmall forces such as companies and battalions. Such gamesprovided information that aided in rendering evaluationsbased on judgment and experience.

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V 0Some of the early games, for example von Reisswitz's"* and Neckel's, were played on the so-called "ideal" maps.*

These were terrain maps of imaginary rather than actualareas. They were used because suitable maps of actualareas and of varied terrain were difficult or impossibleto obtain. As maps of actual areas improved and becamemore plentiful, the use of ideal maps was no longeLnecessary. About the beginning of the 20th century thefollowing scales were in general use for war gamingpurposes: 1:5000 to 1:8000 (12 to lb inches to the mile)for the tegimental war games: I:I0,0C2 (6 inches to themile) for the great war games: and 1:100,000 (2/3 inchesto the mile) for the strategic war games.

According tn Sayre, 1 0 Lieutenant General v. Litzmann,Director of the German War College, made the followingobservations in a work published in 1905. Introduction tothe War Game: "It is essential to success thdt thedirector should not assume that he or other participantsin the exercise have knowledge or skill which they ao notreally possess .... Beginners at the war game must betaught by means of preliminary exercises how to find theirway about easily on a war game map, and how to use theblocks, scales and other apparatus. When they have learnedthis they are prepared to act as cummanders, at first insiM•e exercises and afterwards in maneuvers presentinggreater difficulties .... The difficulties must bemastered step by step . Dissatisfaction with the wa,.game is generally a consequence of not having thoroughlymastered its technicalities."

In Germany war games began to be used as heuristicdevices to assist in solving military problems. DurinqWorld War I, for example, the spring offensi,'. for 1918

*"Three plans, on a scale of about eight inches toone mile have been 11thographed in Berlin, expressly forthis (von Reisswitz's game ...... One of these planscontains Ligny and Quatre Bras; another Austzlitz: andthe third the neighbor of Leipsick, . . .. " The UnitedService Journal. Part I, London, 1831.

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was tested and rehearsed by means of strategic war games.The game revealed that there was very little chance ofthis offensive producing decisive results. 3

The restrictions imposed by the Allies upon the Germanmilitary establishment following World War I stimulated theuse of war games at all levels of command. During theperiod between wars, and during World War II, war gameswere employed extensively both for educational andanalytical purposes. While no new methods were introduced,a great deal of experience in the use of gaming techniqueswas obtained. There appears to have been no official publi-cations issued on war gaming, presumably because it wasfelt that such instructions might hinder the free develop-ment and application of gaming methods. However, manyunofficial manuals and articles were written. "On thewhole, the Officer Corps was firmly convinced of the greatimportance of theoretical exercises and did not ceaseuntil years after the beginning of World War II to employthem as a training device--even out in the field duringthe preparation of new operations." 3

Tactical war games were conducted to provide lowerlevel commanders with decision-making experience and totrain them to issue the orders that were needed to imple-ment the decisions. Some of these games were one-sidedand the control group directed the movements of theopposing forces. Large scale tactical and strategicalgames were conducted by higher echelons, particularly atthe War College and in the general staff. Military-political games were also-played. The participants in-cluded politicians and businessmen as well as representa-tives of the armament industry, the Propaganda Ministry,and all branches of the armed forces.

Games were employed to test combat principles. Inthese games one side employed the tactics and strategy ofthe nation that was assumed to be the enemy. The "friendly"commanders were changed several times in order to "..bring the decisions of several persons to bear on theprinciple to be tested." 3

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Plans for future operations were tested and plansfor impending operations tested and rehearsed by a seriesof war games. In a somewhat similar manner games wereemployed to assist in briefing the various command levels.The army group commander used them to describe the situa-tion and to explain his intentions to the army commanders.The army coimander in turn employed a game of lessermagnitude to instruct the division commanders, and so ondown the line to the company commanders. In this wayeach became thoroughly familiar with the situation,

". . . and with the difficulties he would have to overcomewith respect to both the enemy and the terrain."3

During the study of military history past campaignswere refought by means of war games. These games werealso used to test or improve certain doctrines that hadbeen developed and employed in the past. The actions andsituations that occurred on the flanks of the German Armyin World War I served as the basis for some of thesehistorical games.

War games were conducted in order to study or testlogistical feasibility and transportation problems. Insuch games the tactical and strategical aspects werehandled by the control group. The participants were con-cerned with deciding where food, ammunition, medicalsupplies, etc., were needed, how much, and how to getthem to those places.

After the establishment of the Reischswehr Ministry,Field Marshal von Blomberg--conducted a series of highlevel war games in an attempt to ". . . solve theproblems which the military and political situation hadcreated for German national defense and, especially, toestablish a theoretical basis for the joint action ofthe Supreme Armed Forces Command and the high commands ofthe Army, the Navy, and the Luftwaffe in all the importantsectors of warfare." 3 Von Blomberg was later dismissed,and perhaps for this reason the results of the games werenever recorded.

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About 1933 war games were employed to assist in theplanning of the west wall. When a special commissionheaded by Generaloberst Beck worked out the new operationsmanual for the German Army, the principles contained there-in were tested by numerous war games. In 1938 the Chief ofStaff of the German Army used the results of a war g, ieto support his contention ". . . that no matter how success-ful the campaign against Czechoslovakia might prove, itwould be only a 'pyrrhic' victory with all the catastrophicresults of such an event for Germany and all Europe." 3

In planning the western campaign of early World War IIthe German Army high command was faced with the problem of

". where the main force of the first offensive thrustwas to be directed and how the obstacle of the Ardenneswas to be overcome by large motorized units." To help solvethis problem both two-sided and one-sided war games wereemployed. In tl - two-sided game the opposition ". . . didnot have to act according to German principles, but wassupposed to adopt decisions and measures which in ouropinion the allied commander presumably would follow." 3

The one-sided game was used to determine the feasibilityof moving through the Ardennes with large armored units.For this game data based on peacetime experience and thePolish campaign were used. The information gained fromthese games was employed in the preparation of the finaloperations plan.

After the collapse of France, plans for the invasionof Russia were prepared and rehearsed with the aid of wargames.

During lulls in the fighting, games based on theactual situation were conducted to explore the effective-ness of alternative courses of action and to rehearseimpending or probable events. Thus, in November of 1944the staff of the Fifth Panzer Army under the direction ofArmy Group Model played a war game with the purpose ofrehearsing defensive measures against a possible Americanattack. During the qame such an attack did occur. Allof the participants whose commands were not directlyaffected by the attack were ordered to continua the game

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4n

and to base their decisions on reports from the fightingfront. When the situation became so critical that it wasnecessary to commnit the division that comprised the army

4_1 reserve "... the division commander, General von Walden-burg, who was present in the room and engaged in the game,received his orders one after another from the army group,th6 army, and the commanding general in question. Afteronly a few minutes General von Waldenburg, instead ofisading purely theoretical orders at the map table, wasable to issue actual operational orders to his operationsofficer and his couriers. The alerted division was

thereby set in movement in the shortest conceivable time.•C Chance had transformed a simple map exercise into stern

;;i ::i!.!Ireality. "3

Japanese Use of war Gam~es. Translations of the works

of Neckel and von Verdy n•ear to have introduced theStechnique of war gaming the Japanese. Educationalga•e. s became a part of tne curriculum of the Japanese WarCollege, and the successes of the Japanese Army in the

,j• Russo-Japanese War of 1904 were attributed in part to the*lessons learned" by Japanese officers in war games.

In 1940 the Total War Research Inscitute was estab-lisbed for the purpose of determining Japan's future coursesof action with the aid of analytical gaming. Players repre-sentet. not only different nations such as the U.S., Britain,

L iRussia, China, Germany, etc., but also the conflicting.. interests within Japan: Army, Navy, and civilian. "These

gwwes resulted in detailed military and economic plansthat were actually put into effect on December 8, 1941."8

War games conducted in the fall of 1941 at the WarCollege in Tokyo were employed to analyze the effective-"ness of & surprise attack of Pearl Harbor, and to rehearsesuch an operation. Other games "resulted in a carefullyworked out schedule for occupying Malaya, Burma, theDutch Maot Indies, the Philippines, the Solomons, and theCentral Pacific Islands. These games were essentiallythree-vided exercises with teams of players representingJapan, England, and the U

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In early 1942 tentative naval plans including thecapture of Ceylon, the destruction of the British fleet,and the gaining of air control over the Indian Oceanwere tested by means of war games. These plans, which hadas their ultimate goal the joining of German and Japaneseforces in the Near East, called for the use of army troopsin amphibious operations against Ceylon. However, the armyrefused to cooperate on the grounds that it had to be-"on guard against the Soviet Union and therefore could notafford to extend itself any further in Southeast Asia." 6

Naval plarners then turned their thoughts to the east andprepared ambitious plans for the capture of Midway and thewestern Aleutians in early June, the seizure of strategicpoints in New Caledonia and the Fiji Islands in July, airstrikes onr southeast Australia, and operations againstJohnston Island and Hlawaii in tugust. These proposedoperations were tested in a series of war games in thespring of 1942. During the play the Nagumo Force wasattacked by land-based air while its own planes wereattacking Midway. Following the rules of the game, anumpire determined that the carriers received nine hits andthat two of them, the Akagi and Kaga, were sunk. RearAdmiral Ugaki, the director of the game, arbitrarily re-duced the number of hits to three, and the number of sink-ings to one, and then permitted the sunken carrier toparticipate in the next part of the play dealing with theNew Caledonia and Fiji Island invasions. These and otherarbitrary rulings, always in favor of the Japanese, causedthe authors of Midway--the Battle That Doomed Japan6 towrite: "No more vivid example of thoughtless and stupidarrogance can be conceived than the attitude whichpervaded the war games in preparation for the Midwayoperation."

Allies, World War IX. While the Americans and Britishconducted war games for educational purposes during WorldWar II, they did not use them to the same extent as did theGermans and Japanese for planning, testing, and rehearsingoperations. However, the Allied Forces employed war gamingtechniques ". . . in the detailed planning for the D-dayinvasion of Normandy." 8 An interesting example of a

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.......

4

Ssomewhat infoimal use of war gaming by General Montgomeryin planning a battle in the desert is described by Moore-head.* The intelligence officer arranged the forces ofthe Axis Army on a map, and then played move for moveagainst Montgomery.

War Games in the United States. Little seems to beknown about the first war games in the United Statesbeyond the fact that they were introduced into the armyin 1867.10,11 However, it may be assumed that they werecopies or adaptations of German games. Thus, Major Liver-more, one of the early American authorities on war games,first learned about them in 1865 from a civil engineer whohad been an officer in the Bavarian Army.

In 1872 Captain Baring of the Royal Artillery adaptedthe works of a German writer (von Tschischwitz) to Britishuse, and this book formed the basis for the conduct ofvoluntary war games at a number of U.S. garrisons.

During 1,873 the Explanation and Application of the

English Rules for Playing the War Gamel was published inLondon. This book was based on lectures on war gamingthat were delivered by Lieutenant Colonel Middleton ofthe English Army to the Brigade of Guard and the AldershotDivision. It also contained some of the rules of theAldershot War Game Society, a group formed for the purposeof playing and improving war games. This book becameavailable in the United States, and it is interesting tonote that there is a well marked copy of the book in theNaval War College Library stamped, "Received, March 27,1887."

Middleton wrote: "The war game is intended to be arepresentation of some operation of war, on a map drawnto a large scale, . . . the troops being represented by

*Alan Moorehead, Montgomery, a Biography (New York:

Coward-MWCann, Inc., 1946), p. 132.

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metal blocks of two different colors, red and blue, whichare moved according to certain fixed rules as they wouldbe moved in the field." He noted that the game ". •may be arranged as to be suitable for all ranks, byrepresenting the minor operations of war as well as thegreater," and believed that the war game was of particularvalue to general officers. The author cautioned: "Theonly thing to be guarded against is putting too high avalue on the game which, after all, can only be consideredas an attempt to carry out theoretically in the closetwhat is done practically in the field."

The first major American work on war gaming wasAmerican Kriegsspiel1 1 by Major (later Colonel) Livermore.It was published in 1879 and a second edition printed in1898. In the preface to the first edition Livermore wrote:"The American Kriegsspiel, or War Game, has been developedfrom that of the Germans, its purpose being to representmilitary operations upon a geographical or topographicalmap, by small colored blocks, and auxiliary apparatus towhich a conventional meaning is assigned." He furtherstated that he had consulted the works of von Verdy, Meckel,vcn Trotha, and von Tschischwitz of the German Army,Captain Baring of the British Army, and several Austrianauthors, but that his work was closer to the RegimentsKrieusspiel of Naumann than to any of the others.

The following appears in the preface to the secondedition: ". . . an effort has been made to bring . . .the tables up to date; but now we have no recent war likethe Franco-Prussian or the Turko-Russian to test the valueof our estimates, . . .. " However, a postscript notesthat "The war with Spain . . . has solved several of theproblems depending upon the new weapons." Comments werealso made about the use of partially smokeless powder andblack powder by United States troops as opposed to thesmokeless powder of the Spanish.

Livermore classifies war games as follows:

(1) The Tactical Game, representing an engagement inall its details.

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(2) The Grand Tactical Game, representing an extensivebattle in a more general manner.

(3) The Strategical Game, involving the movementsof armies over an extended area and for a period of severaldays or months.

(4) The Fortifications Game, representing siegeoperations; and

"(5) The Naval Game.

The author coasidered the first two of the greatest impor-tance to the army and the militia and consequentlydescribed them in great detail. He did not describe thenaval game.

The rules were designed to cover every conceivablesituation, and the games were conducted under the super-vision of a director. In this regard, Livermore commented:"Although usually conducted under the direction of anumpire this is by no means essential for the rules arewpecific enough in their present form to enable the playersto agree very well about their applications." Whether ornot such umpire-less games were ever played does not seemto have been recorded; that they could have been success-fully conducted is somewhat unlikely.

Livermore observed that in Germany where there weremany officers with wide experience both in the field andin war gaming, the free method of evaluation ".

answered well . . .. But such men are not always availablefor umpires in the small garrisons into which the Americanarmy is divided: . . .. " Therefore, he based his originalgame cn rigid methods of evaluation, but attempted todevise and employ improved equipment and procedures thatwould make "The American Game proceed almost as rapidly

." as those German games that used free methods ofevaluation.

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SAPMajor C.W. Raymond in a book* published in 1881supported Livermore's contentions concerning free and rigidmethods of evaluation. As quoted by Young,3 Raymond wrote:"However possible such an exercise may be in Germany, itwill certainly be found generally impractical in our owncountry (USA). In Berlin, whero there are officers ofthe general staff i'?ho devote their undivided attention tothe study of war it may be possible to obtain competentdirectors, . . but in this country . . . only in a fewexceptional cases would it be possible to obtain adirector, the superiority of whose experience and attain-ments would be so undcubted that his decisions wouldreceive unhesitating acceptance ...... My own experienceas a directo.1 ias convinced me that . . . the director,after he has conducted a few exercises, finds inevitablythat he is acting in accordance with rules which he hasconsciously or unconsciously formed. Thus the choice wehave to make is not between rules and no rules but betweenrules based upon the careful study of all available data,which have stood the test of practice and the fire ofcriticism, and rules extemporized by a single authority tobe accepted without demonstration and to be varied byevery new director."

Experience with Livermore's game, however, did notbear out the author's optimistic appraisal of the speed atwhich it could be conducted. And the second edition whichwas prepared with the assistance of Major Hugh G. Brownstated: "The tables in the American Kriegsspiel have beenprepared with a view to expressing all that could belearned of the influences that affect a battle or campaign,and umpires are cautioned thAt they are only to be usedas required: . . . Although the methods . . . describedwill enable the umpire to determine with the utmostrapidity any doubtful point that may arise in the courseof the game, it cannot be too strongly stated that all

*C.W. Raymond, Kriegsspiel, U.S. Artillery School,Ft. Monroe, Va., 1881.

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Ithese computations not only need not, but must not, be made jin every case. They are intended to facilitate and hastenthe game, and should not be so perverted as to retard it." f

The maps used in Livermore's tactical games weredrawn to a scale of approximately 12 inches to the milewith a contour interval of ten feet. They were idealmaps probably because suitable maps of actual areas werenot available.* The maps were gridded as an aid in thetaking of measurements and determining the locations offorces and events.

Troop units were represented by small blocks ofwood, metal, or porcelain. The opposing sides werered and blue, but other colors and tints were used incombination with these colors to distinguish the differenttypes of troops and formations. If a unit suffered a lossof two tenths of its fighting power, the block representingthe unit was turned so that its face showed a single markcalled a "score." A four-tenths reduction in combat effec-tiveness resulted in the face with two mark3 being turnedup, and so on. Somewhat similar means were employed toindicate ammunition levels, states o. fatigue, times ofcompletion of fortifications, bridges, etc. The idea wasto eliminate the keeping of records, a major problem inany war game.

Troop movements and firing were indicated by pointers.Damage was assessed and recorded by means of a firing board.This was an ingenious arrangement of scales and threematrices of holes which represented respectively a computingtable, a record of losses, and the time. It took theplayers some little time to learn the meaning and manipula-tion of the blocks and pointers, and the control group

*According to Sayre,1 0 the earliest American map madeespecially for war games depicted a four by six mile areaaround Fort Leavenworth. It was drawn in 1906 from surveysmade by student officers of the Army Staff College. Thescale was 12 inches to the mile; the contour interval, 10 ft.

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even longer to mastec the specialized computation tech-nique. Sayre 1 0 noted that Livermore's game was the bestin its class but went on to emphasize, perhaps a littletoo strongly, that ". . . it cannot be readily and intel-ligently used by any one who is not a mathematician,anid' it requires, in order to be able to use it readily,an amount of special instruction, study and practice aboutequivalent to that necessary to acquire a speaking knowledgeof a foreign language."

About the same time that Livermore's game appeared,Lieutenant Totten, in an article in the Journal of theMilitary Service Institution, Volume 1, 18807 observedthat at that time some twenty-three independent sets ofrules existed for the conduct of war games. He thoughtthat these rules and the games that they governed wereuseful in the European nations with large professionalarmies, but felt that these foreign games were too advancedfor the citizen soldiers of our nation and too complicatedand too time consuming to be played "in the thinly soldieredand widely scattered outposts . . ." of the ". . littleAmerican (professional) army .... " He, therefore,described a series of games which he had devised and named"Strategos." These were intended to "... blend and fadeone into another so gradually and so naturally that thestudent will be almost unwittingly entrapped m'.-o con-tinually higher and higher forms of study until at lengththe mere tyro . . . will find himself actually %)nturingto command an army, aad essay with growing confidencethose dee.Lý, and more absorbing problems which alone teatgeneralship and seal the fate of nations."

Totten's Qame was divided into a "Battle Gamev," andan "Advanced Game." The formei was subdivided into a"Minor Tactical Game" and a "Grand Tactical Game." Con-cerning the Battle Game Totten said it i " .. a compro-mise between a game and a study, between chess and 'warupon the map.' . . .. The rules of the game conspiretoward concentration and arrangement, as a means ofsecuring victory, rather than toward captures and losses,and the aim has been to make th6e~ rules suggestive ofmilitary ideas." Of the advanced game he remarked that ir

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- I

".. affords to the professional military man everyopportunity that could be desired for pursuing studies,-co mmnced in more elementary fields, to their legitimatetermination, In this, the last branch of the subject,therefore, all arbitrary'assignments of values and movesare of course entirely out of the question and improper.The whole game is required to base itself upon actualities,upon the results of careful investigations, and upon thetabulated statistics of experience, of actual practice,and of former battles and campaigns . . the constantendeavor will be seen to represent the mimic battle orcaaign in all its features, save the dreadful wastes ofblood and iron." 7

The battle game was similar to the cider war-chesstype of games. Both versions were played on a 48 by 40inch board which was ruled into inch squares. Thesurface of the board was covered with slate so that nota-tions could readily be made and erased. The board wasdivided into four folding sections for ease in carrying.Pieces representing military unit3 were also covered withslat*. They were colored red for one side, blue for theother. Increased versatility was provided for by addition-al block@ which had topographical oymbols printed on oneside and a slate surface on the other. These could beused to depict either topographical features or troopunits.

Pieces were moved according to fixed rules. An in-fantry unit could move one square forward, backward, orsideways. Cavalry pieces, in one move, shifted two squaresdiagonally in any direction and then one forward, backward,or sideways.1 4 Arbitrary numirical values were assignedto the various pieces and fixed rales governed the captureaM displacement of opposing forces. In the Grand TacticalGaw the players sometimes made their initial dispositionswhile separated by a screen. The screen was then liftedfor a short interval of time so that the opponents mi;htsee but not study each others dispositions. Subject to theawpval of an umpire, the players then au'Juted theirdispositions, the screen was lifted, and play began.

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Totten's advanced game was played on maps, althoughin some instances contours were sketched on the ga~. boardand the topographical blockb used to indicate towns, woods,lakes, etc. Forces moved according to tabulated valuescompiled from real-world activities. These valueb weremodified by one or more multipliers when conditions variedfrom those given in the tables.

The control group followed a series of tfteps, each ofwhich referred to the tables that were needed for imple-mentation. Whether or not a unit could advance, maintainits position, etc., was determined by the use uf ratiosexpressing chances of success and reference to a throw ofdice. For example, when veteran troops engaged new troopsthe ratio wan 4 to 1 for the veterans. (Totten noted thatCaesar's estimate was 2 to 1.) The author believed thatthe use of "chances of success" was not only a sound andrealistic method for evaluating interactions but that"I. . 'chanc-- if success' have deep meaning for thebattlefield itself."7

The slated surface of the blocks was used for book-keeping purposes and was, according tc Totten, ". . . uni-versally admiLted by devoted players of the war game asperhaps the solution to one of the wost perplexing andapparently insurmountable drawbacks to rapid and satis-factory study." 7

The tables in Tctten', work were based in ;:eat parton War Department records of the Civil War. AppLndzx E olPart I114 contains data of interest to stodents of t"-t ealand Appendix G provides informaticn, ýb-ut the militaryestabiishment of the United Ctates up to 1880.

The first naval war game appears to have beerinvented and patented about 1878 by Captain Pniip H.Colomb of t-,a British Nrvy. It was called 'The Duel,"and was dehigned to simulte an interaction between twoopposing ships. In 1886 Captain Hamwill of thA BritishNavy saidz "I know that some ynars ago Ciiptaiti Toiotbbrought out a very capitai war game, which, i believe, hasbeen wvdely taken up abroad, by Russa espocially. I havc

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read occasionally of naval war-game battles having beenfought in that country. For my own part, although I haveseen a great deal of what has been going on in the Servicethe last six or seven years, or since the war game wasinvented, I have seen one naval war game fought, and oneonly, and that on board the 'Vernon,' I think, in 1879.No doubt many others have been fought, perhaps even in myown ship, without my knowing it . . .. " Rear Admiral theHon. Edmund R. Fremantle commented: ". . . As regardsthe naval war game, I quite agree with Captain Hammill.I think I have fought two games, but that is about all.I bought the blocks, and intended to go at it. In oneship we had, as I say, two or three games. I am verysorry that it has not been adopted in the Navy. Itcertainly was extremely useful. It gave you certainrules which were of great service, and it also affordedsome general information as to the tactics of a gun endtorpedo action between a couple of ships."*

Some of the earliest references on naval war gamingto appear in this country were contained in the Biblio-graphic Notices of the U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings.The following two are listed on pages 201 and 116, respec-tively, of the 1881 volume: "The Duel, or the naval wargame," Revue Maritime Et Coloniale, February, 1881; and"Game of Naval Warfare (translation)," Revista General DeMarina, March, 1881.

In 1866 William McCarty Little, a retired navallieutenant who was living in Newport, delivered a lectureon "Colomb's War Game" at the Naval War College, Newport,R.I. Tlhi lecture appears to have had little impact, andwae apparently soon £ergotten. It is not mentioned inKnight and Puleston's History of the Naval War CollegQe.The following year Little became a member of the staffof the College, and delivered a series of six lectureson war gaming. It was this series of lectures that seemsto have first aroused the interest of the College in wargaming, and ". . . led to their adoption as part of theCollege work, where the games soon took a large place inthe College course." 1 5

*The Journal of the Royal United Service Institution,v. XXX, no. CXXX111, 1886.

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The free method of evaluation for war games becamemore widely known in the United Statem in 1397 with thetranslation by Captain Swift, U.S.A. of von Verdy's book,A Simplified War Game. 1 2 In the preface to the transla-tion, Swift wrote: "Some years ago the distinguishedGeneral I. von Verdy du Vernois, whose ideas upon theeducation of officers and the peace training of troopsrule the military world today, prepared this littlemanual for the purpose of aiding those who were dis-

couraged by more difficult methodi. After hard struggleswith many systems, my experience led me to believe thatthis was the only system that could be successfullyapplied by American ztudets . .

In 1908 Map_? anuver; and Tactical Rides1 0 by CaptainFarrand Sayre, U.S. Army, was p0-lished by the ArmyService Schools P'esa, Fort Leaienworth, Kansas, and latereditions appeared in 1910 ard 1911.8 This book was basedon a series of ler..ture•. preiented at the Army Staff Col-lege. ¶Ue author diszuiss;d military chess and the historyand val , cf ',ar gam.,gi. He described the maps then avail-able I}.uth in this c•>untry and abroad that were suitablefor war games, and the scales, blocks, and other acces-sories that were riecessary or useful for conducting such

ganmes. Say;e noced that up to the time of the publicationof his bock no systematic division of map maneuvers (wargames) had be-en made in our army. He stated that the

". .. characte: of the maneuver is controlled by its(the map's) scale," and recommended the following:"1. Maneuvers in Minor Tactics--embracing tazticalexercises from patrolling to the operations of smalldetachments of all arms, for use at army posts and theArmy School of the Line--maps on a scale of twelve inchesto a miie, with contours at a vertical interval of fivefeet. 2. Maneuvers in Grand Tactics--embracing theemployment of large detachments of all arms and ofdivisions, for the older officers at the larger postsand f~r the Army Staff College--maps on a scale of sixinches to a mile, with contours at a vertical interval often feet. 3. Strategic maneuvers--embracing the opord-tiois of armies, for the Army War College--maps of the

U.S. Geological Survey, scale 1:62,500 (about one inch to

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1 mile)." Sayre also commented on a fact that is familiarto all war garners, namely, "... the more minutely wewish to consider the details of military operations theLarger should be the scale of the map."

Sayre observed that the situations upon which wargames are based should be plausible and suggested the useof problems based upon actual situations or on eventsthat occurred in military history. He believed that theforces assigned to opposing commanders need not be equalin strength or similar in composition, and when they weretherG was a tendency for the game to become a long drawnout affair. To add interest and realism, the authorsuggested that, when possible, problems be so formulatedthat ". . . one or both commanders may be forced or inducedto abandon their original missions and adopt new ones cntheir own initiative."

One-sided games were explained and the authorexpressed the opinion that they had never received theattention that they merited. He believed that they werevaluable types of games, especially for beginners, and "that they gave the director an opportunity to bring ,utthe tactical lessons that he wished to teach. "In a two-sid•ed maneuver, it may happen that many of the mistakeswhich are made are not pointed out; this would, perhaps,be the case in actual war; Lut the lesson is none-the-lessbad; the repetition of the same mistakei or incDD-uctzdcarelessness tends to establish bad habits, *Kt mWy b6objected that the part of the director, commanding oreof the forces and k)noing the movemerts of the other, istoo easy from a tactical point of view. This would betrue if it were a contest or a game; but there is no con-test and no game; the director does not coppete with thestudent officers, he teanhes them." (Qu-ted 731 Sa-rL from"Jeu de Guerre at Manoeuvre sur la Carte," Revue MilitaireGenerale, Jan. 1907.)

The two-sided games were considered to be a 'ighberform of wzr ganting, and the type mort frequently conductedbecause they mcre cl.osly approximated the real world. Inthese games the d..rectoz's chief job was tu furnish ea3h

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) side with realistic intelligence, to monitor rates of march,to determine contacts, and to assess damage. Sayrestressed the fact that a two-sided game provided a commanderwith ". . . an opportunity to gauge his opponents, to makeuse of his knowledge of their personal characteristics, andto shape his own course accordingly." To illustrate thispoint, he noted that "Such decisions as that of GeneralLee in halting behind Antietam Creek and accepting battlewith the Potomac at his back--or in dividing his forces atChancellorsville in the Dresence of a superior enemy--would, in a one-sided maneuver or in a map problem, beregarded as mistakes; but when the personality of the

* opposing commander is taken into account they may be veryfar from being mistakes."*

Four methods of s arting the game were explained. Inthe first, the opposing commanders were assigned the prob-lem some time in advance of the game and were required toprepare a written estimate of the situation. The secondmethod gave the players about a half hour in which tofamiliarize themselves with the situation and to get readyto select their courses of action. The third way was tobring one side and then the other to the map, to brieforally each in turn on the situation and forces, and thenstart the game. "This method, no doubt, offers lessoportunity for reflection than would ordinarily be thecase in war. But one of the greatest benefits to beobtained from map maneuvers is practice ir estimatingsituations rapidly and in forming decisions promptly .

The fourth method, Sayre noted, was frequently em-Iployed in the German Army, and had been used to someextent at the Army Staff College. It is very familiar toofficers who have attended the Naval War College and isfrequently used in today's educational type war gawe5.In this method the players are divided into two sides.

*For some interesting speculations on how computergaming might have affe: ted the outcome of Chancellorsville,see F. X. Kane, "SecuLity Is Too Important to Be Left toComputers," Fortune, April 1964, page 146.

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Each player then prepares an estimate of the situationfor his own cide, and the courses of action that he wouldtake were he in command of his side. The director examinesall of the solutions and selects the two that he think,would lead to an interesting and instructive game. Theplayers whose solutions are selected act as commanders oftheir respective sides, and the other players are assignedsubordinate commands.

In games that started with the opposing forces aconsiderable distance apart, Sayre proposed that they beconducted on a small scale map until such time as theforces came into contact. At that time they woild betransferred to the large scale map and the game wouldproceed in a more detailed fashion.

The difficulties of simulating the engagements of largeforces, which usually stem from an attempt to include toogreat a range of command levels, were recognized by Sayre.He recomnended that the number of participants in suchgames be limited, that they be assigned to high levelcommand jobs, and that they only make the decisions and

issue the orders normal to those billets. "For instance,in mixed brigades the officers assigned to commands wouldbe the brigade commander, the regimental commanders andthe commander of the cavalry: . . . By assigning noofficers to command battalions or smaller units and bypermitting the participants to decide only such questionsas properly fall to the province of the brigade, regi-mental, . . . and cavalry commanders, the director may jkeep the control of the execution of all details in hisawn hands and greatly simplify the conduct of theexercise."

Sayre defined the strategic war game as one intendedto give practice in such work as, in war, would fall togeneral staff officers. "The organization and concentra-tion of armies, the establishment of lines of communica-tions, the service in rear of an army and on the lines ofooinilncatioas, the use of railway and telegraph lines,t* service of information, . . . and the preparation ofreports, etc., are taken up."

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CI ~Meckel (Anleitung zum Kriegsspiel) was quoted bySayre on the duties of the director in a strategic wargame. "The most important and most delicate duty of thedirector is the communication of information of theenemy. It is the most important because operations dependupon this information, and it is the most delicate becauseit is very difficult to give just the right measure of in-formation and no more . . .. The more experience thedirector has had in high staff positions in war, themore familiar he will be with the peculiarities of messagesand other sources of information, and the better will he beable to hit on the right amount and kind of information tobe given, and to mix correct, inaccurate, incomplete, andfalse information together in proper proportions." It wasobserved that there were few officers in otr army withthis sort of experience but ". . . the experience of ourStaff College shows that well inctrur'ted officers--su'-h asthe students of the Staff College--are able to conductstrategic map maneuvers well enough to make them interestingand profitable."

Sayre based his game on the free method of evaluation."Losses are estimated by the director in accordance with"his judgment, bake• on his experience and study of modernwars." However, in an anpendix which was a reprint of apamphlet that had been used at the Army Staff College forabout a year prior tL the publication of Map Maneuvers andTactical Rides, it was noted that while losses were nolonger calcalated in way: games, many officers, based ontheir observations of target practice, had formed exagger-ated ideas on the effoctiveness of firearms. It was,therefore, recommended that fire effect tables be used inhypothetical situations to train the directors and umpiresin estimating losses and to gain familiarity with theimportant factors which influence the effect of fire.Such a table and examples of its use were included in theappendix.

As noted by Sayre, Captain T. Dubois of the FrenchArmy reccmmended that plates of ground glass be placedover each commander's map and tne moveuients of his forcesdrawn on it in colored pencil. The control group could

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dI

then lay the plates over each other in their map andevaluate the situation. Sayre observed that "A modifica-tion of this method has been in use, for several years atour Naval War College and has recently been tried in ourArmy War College with satisfactory results. Sheets oftransparent celluloid are used instead of the ground glassrecommended by Captain Dubois." This method facilitatedthe mechanics of the game by eliminating the need forvarious size blocks to represent different troop forma-tions, and the covering or removal of blocks on thecontrol group's map. Since much intelligence could beindicated on the plates before they were returned tothe players, this technique simplified and speeded theflow of intelligence.

With the introduction of overlays for transmittinginformation, most of the basic procedures now in use forconducting manual games had been tried at one time oranother. Since, however- these techniques have been re-fined and extended by the use of projection, communications,and reproduction equipment, and by the production andavailability of more and better maps.

A Coast Artillery War Game described by Major WilliamChamberlaine in a book of the same name 1 6 was developed inthe Department of Artillery and Land Defense during thewinter of 1912. The purpose of the game was ". . . totrain Artillery Officers for their duties in time of war."It was ured daily as part of the course of the CoastArtillery School. In the preface to the first edition thefollowing appearsa "It is considered unfortunate thatdome rame more descriptive of its purpose could not befound but the present one has been adopted after consider-J.nq several others."*

The Coast Artillery Game was a two-sided land vs navalgkme. It was played on a game board which consisted of 36

S*A. noted in Chapter I, von Reisswitz used the name war

gawe . . . only because he could not at that time find one

mote suitable."2-34

41 _

r NOT REPRODUCIBLE

U,

C4I

four-foot square sections mounted on trestles. Thecoastal region was a model of some specific area such asGuantanamo Bay, Fort Monroe, etc., with a contour inter-val of 25 feet. Shore, batteries, buildings, ships, etc.were constructed to scale; the ocean area painted blue.Searchlights for u&e in simulated night engagementswere cleverly contrived with the aid of mirrors andlights.

Prior to a game, training in the identification ofship types was given with the aid of a baloptican (slideprojector), and the usual general and special situaticnsprepared and distributed to the players.

At the commencement of play a curtain concealed theboard from the land players. The naval players placedtheir ships and retired from the room. The curtain waspulled open and the land players looked over the situationand issued their orders. The curtain was closed, thedirector rang a bell, and the naval players entered andmade their moves and decisions concerning the selectionof targets, opening fire, etc. Moves represented oneminute of real-world time.

If a battery was firing, & metalqflag was raised.Similar flags were employed to indicate to a target thatit was under fire and the nature of the fire. This assistedin keeping to a minimum the flow of information betweenplayers and umpires.

Hits on ships from land batteries were determined bydrawing one cube for each round fired from the proper bagof 100 cubes. For each cube drawn with a number on itequal to or greater than the range, a hit was scored.Just where the hit landed on the target was determined byspinning a random device (called a "localizer") numberedfrom one to twenty, and locating the corresponding numberon an outline drawing of the ship. Whether or not the hitpenetrated the ariior of the ship was determined by the useof graphs known as "armor attack sheets." The number ofhits required to destroy a particular type ship was

2-36

)compiled from data adapted from Naval War Collegegames. *

The effectiveness of naval gunfire against shoretargets was determined by dividing the land area intosubdivisions, and then following somewhat the same pro-cedures as outlined above:

A 1914 article "n the Scientific American 2 0

described war gaming as then conducted at the Army WarColleae. Redheaded pins represented artillery, stringsof beads indicated linesof skirmishers, and so on. Thecontrol group used a large seale map, the players thesmaller scale maps they would use in the field. Thearticle noted that ."Kriegsspiel . . . is used now inthe instruction of every army of the world," andemphasized that a war game was ". . . not played as agame to see who will win, but to get results and experi-ence, to profit by the mistakes made."

In The Solution of Map Problems 1 7 published during1925 the student was cautioned not to ". . . waste timein criticizing the problem. The problem may not beperfect, but it must be solved." It was also noted that"It is not the aim of the General Service Schools tograduate officers highly proficient in the art of solvingmap problems alone, but through this medium (the solutionof map problems) to bring about that state of mind whereinthe individual, when confronted with a situation in thefield, goes about its solution with full confidence inhis ability to see things in their proper relations, toweigh conditions one against the other, and to reach asound decision without undue loss of time." Coloredmarkers, pins, colored pencils, and charcoal were usedto indicate locations and movements.

*Appendix IX contains a table showing the numbersand types of hits and damage suffered by naval vesselsin the Russian-Japanese, Chinese-Japanese, and Spanish-American Wars.

2-374rI

While there is some indication that U.S. mobilization '•"

plans were war gamed by the War Plans Division in the latethirties, for the most part war games in the United States 4

were conducted at such service schools as the Command andGeneral Staff College, the Army War College, the Naval WarCollege, etc. "Such games apraar to have been playedprimarily Xor training purposes in conjunction with coursework . . .. "8 In some of these the student teams preparedplans and, prior to the play of the game, switched sidesand during the game executed the plans prepared by theiropponent.

In March of 1941, a translation and condensation ofthe German General von Cochenhausen's booklet on war gamingappeared in the Military Review. 1 8 The editors of thereview stated: "It is believed that no better means thanthe Kriegsspiel,' or war game. has been devised for train-ing commanders and general staff officers, approaching asit does the semblance of actual battle.* It demandsdefinite decisions and orders for the commitment of troops,also being conducted within the realm of time and spacethereby leading to exactitude in troop leading."'

The article describes the then current German gamingtechniques and concepts, and indicates the type of gamingliterature then available. It describes the conduct of aoned sided game (called a map exercise by the Germans) anda two-sided game (referred to as a war game by the Germans).For the latter three rooms were required ". . . one forthe actual gage, another for the party not playing at themoment and a third into which officers of the playingparty may retire for brief intervals." Sides were calledto the map in turn, and enemy symbols were covered exceptwhen the locations of such forces were known. It wasnoted that the commanders should have one ot more assistantsto relieve them of the details of setting up the symbols, etc.

*Cbmpare with conclusion reached by the 1955 War GamesConfor6nce at the University of Michigan: "War gaming is aneaftemaly important educational device for training seniorofhLcers--p0obably the best available in time of peace

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-a'/•11 1: ; •, , l•,,:•l' ,%• • i%••"

In one-sided games it was pointed out that thedirector should ". . . lead the enemy so as continually

to introduce a new situation demanding prompt decisionand action of commanders.-"

Of the game leader (director) in a two-sided game itwas said: "He studiously determines which methods willkeep play on the right course and avoids everything whichmight tend to have a semblance of force or influence onhis part. He strives to give the war game charm andreality, a natural development of accomplishments out ofthe thinking and desires of the commanders."

During World War II, scientists conducting militaryoperational research studies began to employ war gamingtechniques to assist them in formulating and solvingoperational problems. In an article published in 1954,for example, Dr. Philip M. Morse told how war gaming wasemployed to develop some wartime antisubmarine air-searchtactics,* and anucher article in the same book mentionsthe use of war gaming in mine warfare.**

Since World War II, and particularly during the past"decade, tremendous advances have been made in war gaming,its techniques and itL- applications, and many new war-gaming organizations--military and civilian--have beenestablished.*** A few of these developments are outlinedin succeeding paragraphs.

*Philip M. Morse, "Progress in Operations Research,"

Joseph F. McCloskey and Florence N. Trefethen, eds., Opera-tions Research for Management, (Baltimore: Johns HopkinsPress, 1954), p. 115.

**Florence N. Trefethen, "A History of Operations Re-

search," Joseph F. McCloskey and Florence N. Trefethen,eds., Operations Research for Management, (Baltimore:Johns Hopkins Press, 1954), p. 15.

***A directory of war gaming activities has been com-

piled by the U.S. Army Strategy and Tactics Analysis Group,

Bethesda, Maryland. 53

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During the postwar years operations research person-nel continued and expanded tbeir wartime gaming and simu-lation experiments, and a number of hand-played games weredevised by such organizations as the RAND Corporation, theOperations Evaluation Group, and the Operations ResearchOffice (ORO) of Johns Hopkins University.* As digitalcomputing equipment became available, schemes wereadvanced for devising computer equivalents of board andmap games. One of the first such games was Carmonette,a computer simulation of a tank battle. 4 Another earlycomputer game was devised by the RAND Corporation forthe simulation of air warfare. 4 9

Monopologs, a military inventory management game wasdevised by RAND in 1955. Two years later the AmericanManagement Association introduced the first practicalbusiness "war game," 'T'- Management Decision Simulation.During this same gener". period, political factors wereintroduced into war games, and a number of political andpolitical-military games were devised and conducted. 3 4

The Air Force established a service-headquarters- klevel gaming activity, the Air Battle Analysis Center J(AnAC), in mid 1957. The Navy set up Op-06C, the Officeof the Assistant to the Chief of Naval Operations for WarGaming Matters, in early 1958. About two years later theArmy established the Strategy and Tactics Analysis Group(STAG); the Marine Corps, the Landing Force War Game Group(LFWGG) at the Marine Corps Landing Force DevelopmentCenter. In early 1961 the Joint War Games Control Group(JWGCG) was activated to plan, control, and supervise jointwar games for the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Two years laterthis group was expanded and redesignated the Joint WarGames Agency (JWGA). Its mission remained unchanged. 5 0

*ORO was dissolved as a research organization onAugust 31, 1961. Its work is being continued by ResearchAnalysis Corporation (RAC), a nonprofit research organiza-tion under contract to the United States Army.

Operations Research, September-October 1961, p. 770.

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Service war gaming organizations receive technicalsuppcrt from military groups and civilian research organi-zations such as Technical Operations, Incorporated. Fore"'ample, the Navy's Office of the Assistant for War GamingMatters receives technical support from tWo naval activi-ties (The Strategic Analysis Support Group, and the Computa-tion and Analysis Laboratory of the Naval Weapons Laboratory)and one civilian organization (The Planning Analysis Group ofthe Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University).

The Joint War Games Agency is staffed by personnelfrom all of the Serices, and the position of the Chief ofthe A-ency is filled on a rotational basis from among theServices. Except for certain political-military games,this agency does not conduct its own games, but utilizesservice-gaming facilitiez and personnel and the technicalsupport of contract organizations. The Joint War GamesAgency coordinates the joint-gaming activities of thevarious service-gaming groups, and provides supervision andoverall control, guidance, and advice. 5 0

A game (or set of games) was played in 1964 that re-quired the personnel and facilities of three Navy activi-

"3 ° ties, and utilized all three of the basic simulationtechniques. The given problem was to examine, by means ofwar gaming, an Atlantic Fleet contingency plan for theemployment of amphibious forces. The game used three ofOp- 0 6 's amphibious warfare models to play the load-out ofthe amphibious forces, the ship-to-shore movement, andthe naval gunfire and air support. These plays were con-ducted on digital computers at the Naval Weapons Laboratory.The movement of the amphibious task force to the objectivearea was played on the NEWS at the Naval War College. Thisportion of the game employed remote-play techniques. Thecomriander and his staff operated from the flagship whichwas tied up at its pier; the control group in the NEWSsimulated the units of the task force and the opposition.Troop operations ashore were played by means of a manualgame conducted by the War ames Division at the Marine

2-41

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Corps Landing Force Development Center.* $

Gaming at the Naval War College. The simulation ofnaval engagements between forces in which individual navalunits are represented does not present some of the diffi-culties encounbaredin the gaming of land forces. Unlike acompany of infantry, for example, a ship cannot vary thearea that it occupies, nor can it be hidden by an inter-vening ridge, or seek concealment in a wooded area. Navalgames are less dependent upon the production of good maps,and of course, can be conducted in areas representing openwater without any maps at all. Consequently, it is notsurprising to find that the use of gaming techniques wasapplied to the realistic appraisal of naval actions priorto its similar employment for land battles.

During the latter part of the 18th century, John Clerkstudied naval tactics and evolved a highly successful theorywith the aid of aming methods. In the preface to An Essayon Naval Tactics- Clerk wrote: "As I never was at sea my-self, it has been asked, how I should have been able toacquire any knowledge in naval tactics, or should havepresumed to suggest my opinion and ideas upon that subject."In the explanation that followed he said: ". . I hadrecourse not only to every species of demonstration, byplans and drawings, but also to the use of a number ofsmall models of ships which, when disposed in properarrangement, gave most correct representations of hostilefleets, extended each in line of battle; and being easilymoved and put into any relative position required, andthus permanently seen and well considered, every possibleidea of naval system could be discussed without the possi-bility of any dispute." Captain F. E. Chadwick, USN,while President of the Naval War College, had this to say

*Thomars Bush, "War Gaining in the Navy," A lecturedelivered at the School of Naval Command and Staff,Naval War College, Newport, R.I.: September 29, 1965

2-42 j

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of Clerk's efforts: "It may not be generally known thatfor a hundred years previous to the appearance of Clerk'swork on Tactics . . all actions between the French andthe English were of a very indecisive nature. Rodney madea first application of Clerk's principles in his actionwith de Grasse. The final and successful tactics undarsail were thus worked out in the solitude of a student'sstudy . . .. "* Little observed in 1911 that Clerk, inorder to analyze the tactics of opposing forces ".

used little blocks representing ships which he moved abouton a table representing the sea: practically the navaltactical or fleet war game of today:"l In a manner some-what similar to that used by Clerk, Captain Mahan employed

". . cardboard vessels of different colors for tha con-tending navies . . ." in developing his early lectures atthe Naval War Colleae.** FPwever, despite the proven valueof Clerk's techniques, thL war game as used by navalofficers ". . . was suggested by the German Army Kriegs-spiel, brought prominently to vie% in 1870 .

As noted earl2er, war gaming was introduced to theNaval War College and, no doubt, to the Navy, in a seriesof six lectures delivered in 1887 by Lieutenant WilliamMcCarty Little, USN, retired.*** These lectures werecontinued during 1888 and 1889 and the staff conductedc=a.T-ional games during the period from 1887 to 1893. In1889 Major Livermzre, author of The American Kriegsspiel,visited the College, and it can be assumed that the two

*F.E. Chadwick, "Explanation of Course at the Naval WarCollege," U.S. t'val Inbtitute Proceedings, June 1901, p. 304.

**Alfred T. Mahan, From Sail to Steam. (New York:Harper and Brothers, 1907), p. 294.

* •TO.c lectures on war gaming, ". . . mark(ed) the be-.7nninq of the official activities of Lieutenant Littleat the C-11010. With but one relatively short interruptionthese activities continued for 2R years until his deat- in1915."l5 Lieutenant Little was appointed Captain in 1903b' .Special AcP of Cc~rges.

2-43

authorities on war gaming, Livermore and Little, had agreat deal to talk about.

Classes were not held at the College in 1890 and1891. In 1892 a war game in which students participatedani a voluntary basis was started but not completed. Noclasses were held in 1893. During the following yearwax games became a part of the regular course of theCollege, and have continued in that role to the present. Throughout this early period, Little continued hisstudies of war gaming, and in 1892 translated in'o Englisha description of a naval war game proposed by LieutenantA. Colombo of the Italian Navy.* In the introduction tothis game, Lieutenant Colombo wrote: "The practice ofsimulated war is also wanting to us, because the resourcesof our country do not permit organizing every year largeSmanoeuvers with this scope, and even if they permitted it,it would be necessary to neglect other manoeuvers no lessimportant. There is, however, a medium path, in my opinion,sufficiently sure and not expensive, and it is that ofmaking theme manoeuvers methodically by all the officers,marking them on the chart, according to such fixed rules aswill cause the exercise to approach actual practice. Witha little good will, a little patience and a little per-serverance, I believe it possible to succeed and to succeedwell, I believe even more; that we will see a d3y in whichthis exercise, which I would call a Naval War Game, willsucceed in interesting, and will form a useful and voluntaryoccupation of many officers in the weary hours passed ashore,or on board in an unamusing town, and will be the source oflong discussions, perhaps at times a little bitter, butvery often of very useful exchange of ideas, ..... I willassemble a certain number of rules, in the hope that some-one may be temted to examine them, to test them and thencomplete them, and I am certain that something useful willcam from it."

*A. Colombo. "A Naval War Game," Pivista Marittima,December 1891.

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z ________________ ___

Concerning Little's efforts in behalf of the Collegeand of war gaming, Rear Admiral Luce wrote: ". . . theCollege owes a deep debt of gratitude (to) Captain WilliamMcCarty Little, U.S.N., who vigorously fought its battleswhen the great body of the Service was either activelyopposed to it, or wholly indifferent. The Neval War Gaveis his special contribution to the work. It %as he whodemonstrated all the pos3ibilities of that ,-ethud of in-vestigation--now known as the laboratory methom.

It was through the ingenuity of devising and workingout details, and the indefatigable labors of LieutenantLittle that the Naval War Game became a recognized part ofthe College curriculum. His work has contributed verylargely to whatever success the College has achieved."t

In 1894, when the first curriculum games were con-ducted at the Naval War College, the President was Com-mander, later Captain, Harry C. Taylor. The staff con-sisted of four officers: the class, 18. In addition,officers of the R.I. Naval Militia and some foreign off.-cers attended some of the classes. The course startedJ.ne 12 and ended September 30. It consisted of lectures,war problems, war charts and defense plans, war games,steam launch exercises, torpedo instruction, ane reading.The main problem of the course was based on assumed b-stili-ties between Red (Great Britain) and Blue (U.S.). Due toRej's great naval superiority, most of Blue's actions weredefensive in nature and led to a study of tactical defenseplars for the waters of Narragansett, Ga-diner's, andBuzzard's Bays. During the autumn and winter the staffcompleted these studies and forwarded them to the Secretaryof the Navy.

*Stephen 3. Luce, "The U.S. Naval War College,"U.S. Naval Inttitute Proceedings. September 1910, p. 684.

"-45

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.4--

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The rules for the first games at the College in whichstudents participated were compiled by Little under thetitle of "Introduction as to Conduct of War Games." Threetypes of games were recognized: "The Duel, or Single-ShipGame; the Fleet Tactical Game, which includes the Melee,and is the tactical maneuvering of hostile squadrons inthe presence of each other upon the open sea or in re-stricted waters; and lastly, the Strategic Game. TheStrategic Game, as its name implies, governs the strategicdisposition of the various units of the fleet and theirsubsequent mobility in a specific operation of war in someimaginary campaign." 1 9 Captain Chadwick, the President of 'the Naval War College in 1901 observed: "The principlesof strategy and tactics may be gleaned from history, butthe games afford the only practicable means known wherebythese principles may be applied. The strategic gameteaches the Admiral how to dispose his forces in a mari-time campaign, the tactical game how to handle his fleetin action, while the duel game shows the commander how tobest fight his ship." 1 5

The 1894 games were described in an article thatappeared in Harper's Weekly in February of the followingyear: ". . the War College has taken a new and success-ful departure, and the year's work just closed has beenpeculiarly practical and progressive. It consisted, firstand foremost in working out a problem in strategy--anapplication to American naval tactics of the 'Kriegsspiel'to which the German Army, and particularly the officers ofthe General Staff, owe their high efficiency in mobiliza-tion and strategic movement . . .. That complete prepared-ness against all probable contingencies is the ultimateaim of this institution; and in the absence of an AmericanGeneral Staff, naval officers are here to determine before-hand what an enemy must or would be likely to do in attack-ing us by sea, and what, under each set of circumstances,is the best way to repel him."

In his annual report Captain Taylor wrote: "The wargame has been useful to a degree far beyond my most sanguineanticipations." Captain C.F. Goodrich, President of theCollege said in his closing address to the 1897 class:

2-47

"I am confident . . . that you have derived much benefitfrom the tactical games, which have at least taught yousome things which a fleet should not do .... Thesingle-ship game has made a distinct step forward, throughthe introduction of the torpedo as a weapon. Experienceand study will improve as well as the other games, so thatthey may more nearly represent the conditions of actualwarfare. It should be borne in mind, however, that areasonable approximatioh is the best we can hope for.This much is undoubtedly true, that he who is expert inmanoeuvering fleets and ships on the boards of the Collegewill possess a marked advantage afloat, in the more seriousgame, over his competitor who has been less fortunate inpreliminary training . . .. In the strategic game, fifteensituations have been played during this session. Muchinterest has been shown and many conclusions of formeryears verified . . .. Naturally, because of the imperfec-tion that must necessarily exist in this mimic warfare,its results can not be accepted in their entirety, but mustbe analyzed and digested before they can be made the basisof future campaigns."

The duel and tactical games were conducted on a"game board." At first, this was simply a piece of paperwith a grid drawn on it. The grid was lettered andnumbered to assist in preparing records of the games forsubsequent study. The records were necessary because someof the early War College games were analytical games andwere used to evolve strategies, devise tactical doctrine,etc.*

*As a result of studies and games conducted in 1895,the College pointed out the strategic value of a Cape Codcanal.15

2-48

°) The term "game board," as applied to the griddedsheets of paper, was probably derived from the militarychess type of games that had been popular in Europe inth. first part of the 19th century. However, the termsoon became a literal one, for the grid was painted on aboard with a scale of 10 inches to the mile. The boardwas mounted on low sawhorses. Following World War I thegame board became too small and the grids were painted onthe dock of a room with a scale of 4 inches to 1,000 yards.The title, game board, however, remained, and the roomitself was called the game room. An early newspaperarticle had this to say of the paper game board: "Bya little checkerboard with miniature war ships as thecheckers, naval games by the big bugs of the Americannavy have been played at the Naval War College at Newport,R.I., during the past three years, and on a vast scale.Every naval campaign which it is possible to conceivethat the United States might be called upon to undertakehas been anticipated on this little board."

The first ships uced on the game board were cut fromcardboard and colored by hand. Later the ships werefashioned from wood, and then metal.

Following the summer session of 1896, it was notedthat "Great advances have been made in the means andmethods of playing the (titical) game. Officers haveundertaken to decide by it certain questions of fleettactics, so far as they can be proven in this way, at thesame time using the game as a professional exercise forthemselves; and, systematically played, it has proved tobe of much interest. It ia not too much to say that wediscern now the beginning of a true study of navaltactics . . .. Vagueness and confusion as to the tacticsof steam fleets will, we hope, soon give place to logicalmethods . .

In 1900, in order :"To study the operations of landingparties and to gain the soldier's point of view" 1 5 gamessimulating land warfare were introduced.

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Strategic games were conducted on maps and charts.It was a common practice to start a game on a chart andwhen the forces came into contact, to transfer them tothe game board. The newspaper article mentioned abovedescribes such a game in which the opposing forces repre-sented Spain and the U.S. During the Spanish-AmericanWar, a British officer lecturing before the Royal UnitedService Institution remarked that in America at the NavalWar College ".. . I found the officers working outimaginary campaigns in those very waters where they areputting theory into practice."

During a 1902 lecture on scouting at the Naval WarCollege, Captain C.F. Goodrich said: "... more can belearned (about scouting) from patient playing of our gameof strategy than in any other way of which I haveknowledge." He also appears to have anticipated the in-vention of radar, but not its limitations: "When a futureMarconi or a Becquerel shall devise a means for seeing asfar as the wireless message may be heard, the game ofscouting will be vastly simplified and secrecy of movementon the high seas a thing of the past."

"The principle of the concentration of the fleet . . .was the direct result of a strategic game . . . "I conducted Iin the summer of 1903. "Dissemination had been our rule for I

years, i.e., the ships were divided more or less impartiallyamong the stations 'to show the flag' as the expressionwasi and at that time the same rule was general with othernations. At the beginning of the game most of the con-ference (class) had never entertained a suspicion that thecustom was not perfectly correct; but at the end there wasbut one voice, and that strong and outspoken for concen-tration. But this view, which required but the time ofone game thoroughly to capture the entire conference (class),took many a weary month before by mere argument it couldconvince all of those of our naval authorities who had nothad the privilege or opportunity of 'seeing with theireyes.' It was some time after this that England adoptedthe same principle." 1

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A gamu conducted at tl.e College (The Double vs theTriple Alliance) '. caused those who had taken partin it to have little doubt, at the outbreak of the Russo-Japanese War, of the outcome of that conflict .... Whenthe news came of the battle of August 10. and every onewas wondering why at sunset, seemingly at the very crisisof the engagement, the Japanese battle squadron withdrewand apparently yielded the field, and all sorts of reasonswere being advanced to account for it, we here at theCollege recognized at once an old friend, and laughinglyexclaimed: 'Hello: they have hit upon our retiringsearch curve:'"I

During a lecture at the Naval War College on June 10,1911, Captain Little noted that "The temptation for thecommander-in-chief, when he has nothing to do in his ownsphere of action, to iiterfere in the area of discretionof his subordinates, is very great, and is moreover verydangerous, because it tends to make the commander-in-chiefbelieve that it is his proper business, it tends to dull inthe subordinate his sense of responsibility, and, when thecommander-in-chief really has got something of his own todo, it seriously, if not fatally, interferes with his free-dom of mind properly to attend to it. The only cure forthis is proper war game training." Captain Little thenwent on to quote from a lecture delivered in 1910 at theArmy War College by Captain W.L. Rogers, USN: "Strategyand tactics are intimately bound up with organization andadministration. Matters of organization are avowedlysubjects of study here (A. W. C.); but administration,as it seems to me, is not acknowledged, although it isactually a subject of instruction in one particular direc-tion where constant iteration must produce an effect inwider fields. I allude to the map problems which pro-fessedly are tactical and strategic studies, but besides

are daily made to teach the supreme administrative lessonof 'minding one's own business.' Let us take the case ofa regiment to assume outpost duties, and the problem is forthe colonel to issue the order. If a solution undertakesto go beyond the battalion commanders and give directionsto individual companies, the writer is sure to be remindedthat he can command three battalions efficiently, but thattwelve companies are too much for anyone."

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$Until the introduction of the so-called "long course"

in 1911, the College courses lasted only a few months ofthe summer and early fall. During the winter months, thestaff often played analytical war games. For example,during tho wintor of 1906-07, "Tactica•l qakma worn playodregularly . . . Battle Plan No. 1, as modified on accountof the increased range ol torpedoes, was perfected and sentto the Fleet for trial." 1 5 The game board was also used todemonstrate historical actions zind tactinal concepts. Thus,in 1914 Admiral Fletcher used the board to demonstrate the

"... Fletcher Tactics of the battle line."15

In the early 1900's the term war game apparently fellinto disfavor at the College and the names "board maneuvers"and "chart maneuvers" were substituted for tactical andstrategic games, respectively. The duel game which appearsnever to have attained the popularity of the other twotypes was discontinued.

During a lecture to the students in 1914, CaptainV.0. Chase of the College staff said: "Observe the dis-tinction between the problem and the maneuver. The statedproblem sets forth the conditions of a situation requiringaction. You study the situation, conceive your mission,form your decision and make your initial moves. As themaneuver proceeds new situations develop, presenting otherproblems, and these in turn require new estimates and sub-sequent decisions. In one maneuver, therefore, you willoften have to deal with several problems as they arise."

In 1916, Captain N.C. Twining of the College stafftold thie officers at the Naval Academy that the maneuver(game) board was devised to meet the need for constant,inexpensive and instructive tactical work, and that it

"serves its purpose remarkably well if we keep itslimitations always in mind and do not forget that its resultsflow from the assumptions made."

A rather unusual (in those days) feature of War Collegegames was the employment of civilian personnel to assist inthe plotting and conduct of the game, the drawing of mapsand charts, the preparation of material for the critiques,

2-52 )

and to provide a continuity of gaming "know how." One ofthe earliest and perhaps one of the best known of thecivilian gaming personnel was George J. Hazard, co-authorof Jutland.* Mr. Hazard was one of the three men to havehad the now extinct Civil Service title of War GamesExpert.**

Admiral William S. Sims, World War I commander ofU.S. naval forces in European waters was a staunch advocateof the all big-gun battleship. As postwar President ofthe Naval War College, however, and a keen and constantobserver of the war games there, he soon became aware ofthe advantages and potential of air power and the limitationsof the battleship. "'If I had my way,' he said, 'I wouldarrest the building of great battleships and put money intothe development of the new devices and not wait to see whatother countries are doing.'"***

Concerning the war games, Admiral Sims wrote: "Theprinciples of the war game constitute the backbone of ourprofession . . .. At the Naval War College our entirefleet with all of its auxiliaries, cruisers, destroyers,submarines, airplanes, troop transports, and supply vessels,can be maneuvered on the game board week after week through-out the college year against a similar fleet representing apossible enemy--all operations being governed by rules,based upon the experience of practical fleet officers, andupon the immutable principles of strategy and tactics thatthe students are required t9 learn. There is no otherservice in the career of a naval officer that can possiblyafford this essential -raining. In no other way can thistraining be had except by assembling about a game board

*H.H. Frost and G.J. Hazard, Jutland, U.S. Govt.

Print. Off., 1927.

**The other two were Charles H. Ward and John H.

Wilson.

"***"'attops in the War Games," Naval Aviation News,

August 1962, p. 22-27.2-53

--- - -

a large body of experienced officers divided into twogroups and 'fighting' two great modern fleets against eachother--not once, or a few times, but continually until theapplication of the correct principles becomes as rapid andas automatic as the plays of an expert football team."*

Tnuring the years between the two world wars, the circulardispositions uqed in the second were developed on the gameboard and carried into the fleet by graduates of theCollege. Aircraft and carriers in the games providedfuture coatnanders with an -insight into the potential of in-tegrated sea and air nower. The role of the submarinereceived increasing attention and, for a short time, theill-fated rigid airships appeared in the games. Island-hopping Pacific campaigns similar to those of World War IIwere played repeatedly. Referring to these games in alecture at the Naval War College on 10 October 1960, FleetAdmiral Chester W. Nimitz said: "The war with Japan hadbaen re-enacted in tlhm. game room here by so many people and Iin so many different wa,,-- that nothing that happened duringthe war was a surprise- .-*.-olutely notting except theKamikaze tactic3 towar, :he end of the war. we had notvisualized those."

When Pringle Hall was completed in 1934, the areas nowoccupied by the lecture hall, coffee mesa and offices to itsnorth formed one large maneuver or game room. The deck ofthe game room consisted of a game board with a scale of 6inches to 1000 yards. The present offices to the westformed the control room. Just above and to the south of thegame room was the drafting room in which the war gaming per-sonnel were housed, and which contained the necessary facil-ities for preparing and reproducing maps and charts, and forproducing and maintaining the record. of war games. Phonecommunications and pneumatic tubed extended from the controlroom to many offices in Pringle Hall. Together, all oftheme facilities constituted what was at that time perhapsthe most modern war gaming center in the nation, if not inthe world.

*Norld's Work, September 1923.

2-54

4,n

LnIA

C4

C4

Life Magazine, in an article published October 28,1940 described the board games as "a fantasy carried intothe strictest reality," and said of the players that

"they fight the war that is not yet written into thehistory books."

The game board was also used to analyze and demonstratehistoric naval engagements-such as the Battle of Jutland,and the more recent amphibious operations of World War II.It was also used to illustrate and solve search problems.An interesting deviation from the usual straightforwardmovement of forces on the game board occurred duringsimulated night attacks by surface forces on huge circularconvoys. Due to the size of the formation,- the convoyflag remained stationary, and all forces were moved inrelation to that ship.

In 1945 the College initiated a request for an

electronic display system that would eventually replacethe game boards then in use. This system, later calledthe Navy Electr.onic Warfare Simulator or NEWS, was notcompleted until 1958. During this period there was agradual decrease in the number of board games and a shifttoward less rigid and faster techniques.

During 1953 studies were initiated to develop astrategic game with a range of command levels from thetheater to the national. With this study, the term "wargame" returned to the College. This high-level strategicgame, as distinguished from the earlier concept of astrategic game as a naval campaign, has been conductedannually since 1955. It has employed the NEWS spacesand communications facilities since 1961.

The Navy War Games Program was established in May of1958. One part of this program consists of the examinationof current fleet and force exercises and plans by means ofNMWS gaming. 3 0 The first game conducted under this programwas played in October 195a. A one-week war gnming

2-56

•1

,I

PRINGLE HALL CONTROL ROOM

F~gure 2-4

f •" !2-bI

course for fleet officers was initiated in 1960 in order toacquaint fleet commands with the potential and limitationsof fleet gaming on the NEWS. This course was condvctedtwice a year during 1960 and 1961, and has been conductedannually since 1963.

A War Gaming Department was established at the Naval WarCollege on 11 June 1959. It was assigned a mission of main-taininig the NEWS, coordinating, conducting, and supervisingwar games, and developing gaming facilities and techniques.

A remote-play type of fleet game was conceived andplayed in February of 1962. The players were the "ommanderFleet Air Quonset and his staff. During this game theplayers were stationed in their own Operations ControlCenter at the Naval Air Station, Quonset Point, Rhode Island;the control group operated in the NEWS. Players and controlgroup were linked by "secure" communications lines.

During a five-eay period in October of 1963 the firstlarge-scale remote-play game was conducted. Known as theCanadian-United States Training Exercise (CANUSTREX) 1-63,this game involved six East Coast Fleet Operatior.d ControlCenters and the war gaming facilities of the NEWS and ofthe Trainer of the Canadian Joint Maritime Warfare School.Some two years later (September 1965) the War Gaming Depart-ment designed and conducted the first remote-play game forU.S. and Canadian Pacific Coast Copmands. In this game theplayers were located in their Operational Controil Centers onthe West Coast and in Hawaii.

2-58

-~ J4 CHAPTER III

RULES, PROCEDURES, AND DATA

In chess, as in many non-operational type games, thesituation, forces, their initial dispositions and relativevalues are unvaried from game to game. The mission is clear,the same for each side. It is evident to all if black wins,loses, or draws. In a war game, however, the situation mustbe devised, opposing forces and their characteristicsdescribed, and missions expressed or implied. It may not beeasy, or even desirable, to pick a winner.

The Conflict Situation. The situation selected for awar game may be real or hypothetical. It may be chosen spe-cifically for a game, or it may be selected initially inorder to prepare plans to cope with the situation, to pro-vide students with practice in the use of the military plan-ning process, etc., and later chosen for examination bygaming techniques. In the first instance the situation isgenerally contrived with some regard for simulation limita-tions; in the second, obviously, it is picked without anysuch considerations. Since many situations are chosen forexamination, but few gamed, the selection of the conflictsituation is not usually thought of as part of a game, butas a pregame activity.

Pregame Procedures(When the Conflict Situation is

Selected Specifically for a War Game.)

When the conflict situation is devised especially forgaming, the purpose, scope and level of the game are deter-mined and the simulation equipment considered. Then, exceptin the relatively rare instances where the situation ischosen for the express purpose of designing the rules, theexisting rules of the game are taken into account and a situ-ation fashioned that meets as nearly as possible the needs ofthe activity conducting the game, and requires few modifica-tions to existing rules and a minimum number of new rules.

3-1

•PA

"Dreaming up" such a situation, one that is adequate, unbi-ased, and plausible, and that includes the area of operations,the allocation of forces and weapons and a description oftheir capabilities, is frequently a rather formidable task.This fact has been long recognized by practitioners of theart. For instance, in discussing the main problem for 1906,Knight and Puleston made the following comment in theirHistory of the Naval War College: "The framing of the prob-lem was as difficult as the solution, and much care was takenby the staff to produce a reasonable problem."' 1 5

The selection of the conflict situation and other pre-game procedures have remained practically unchanged since thedays of von Reisswitz. The director, assisted by his staff,devises the conflict situation. In the most common type of Igame, the two-s'ded, he prepares what is known as the "gen-eral situation" and issues it to both sides. He also pre-pares a "special situation" for each side, i.e., a Red Spe-cial Situation and a Blue Special Situation. Depending uponthe complexity of the situation, the general and special Isituations may be brief or lengthy, presented orally or inwriting.

The general situation (sometimes called the scenario)contains background and general information that would be -

known to both contestants in a similar real-world environ-ment. For example, it might describe briefly the eventsleading to a hypothetical war and a series of imaginary mili-tary actions that presumably preceded and led to the situa-tion under consideration. In some instances the general sit-uation may contain the criteria for determining a winner:* inothers, this may be done in the rules. However, in most

*In Strategic Situation No. 2, Naval War College, June 15,1895, the Red fleet was divided into two detachments, onebound for Halifax, another at that port. If during the game

"... Red succeeds (ed) in communicating with Halifax, adetachment equal in size . . . (put to sea) . . . and aunion with this force before encountering the Blue fleet . . .(was) . . . a victory for the Red." If Blue intercepted priorto the union, they won.

3-2

games no attempt is made to define the winner, although aftera play it is not unusual for the contestants to argue thepoint.*

The special situation for each side explains the con-flict situation from the point of view of that side. It spec-ifies the area of operations, lists available forces and theircharacteristics, and provides intelligence of enemy forces andactivities that each contestant wiould presumably possess inan actual situation. The special situation includes anyassumptions made by the director, for instance, the availa-bility or non-availability of additional forces or support,the amount of fuel and ammunition on hand, assumed absence ofspecific threats, and mo on. It also includes any assumptionsthat might have been made in the preparation of the rules thatwould effect the planning process and, when practicable,expresses force and weapons data in terms which are similarto those used in the rules. The correlation of the situationand rules at this early stage tends to simplify the gamingprocess, and to eliminate planning by the contestants forevents that are not intended to be gamed, or that cannot besimulated.

*There are several reasons why it is not customary tostate the conditions that one or the other side must fulfillin order to win a game. First, the general purpose of a wargame is usually to furnish information or to provide decision-making experience that is-Applicable to real-world situations,not to pick a winner. Secondly, a side that may appear to bethe winner at the close of a game might well have been theloser had the game been continued. Thus, a fleet that hasfired all its missiles when the director ends the simulationmight appear to come out on top, but what if the game hadbeen played for another day? Finally, the forces assignedto Blue, for instance, may not be adequate for Blue's assignedmission. This fact might not have been realized until theglume was played--or the purpose of the game may have been todotermine this point. For somewhat similar reasons, somedesigners of business games do not attempt to define winners. 2 6

3-3

Thi special situations may spell out the respectivemissions, or it may allot this task to the players; it mayset up the command structure, or direct the players to do so.In analytical games if particular or special doctrines oraccounting procedures are to be employed by one or both sides,these are also noted or explained in the appropriate specialsituations.

The control group may prepare the plans for one or bothsides. Usually, however, the players on each side de-eloptheir own plans on the basis of the information and re-quirements contained in the general and special situations.These plans range from brief oral or written expressions ofmission, organization, and intentions to exhaustive andformal presentations. They delineate the methods by whichthe opposing commanders expect to achieve their given orinferred goals during the play of the war game. One inter-eating variation of this general procedure occurs when thecontestants switch sides after the planning phase and gamethe plans prepared by their opponents.

If plans are generated by a number of opposing studentstaffs or teams, the director may select two plans to be wargamed, or facilities and time permitting, he may pair offplans for a number of concurrent games or for a series ofgames. In the first instance the students whose plans arenot selected may be absorbed into the game as lower echeloncommanders, staff officers, or as members of the control group.

Some adaptations of the selected plans may be necessary Iin order to adjust them to constraints imposed by such factors

as time available for play, number of participants, equipment,facilities, and model limitations, and some changes in oradditions to the rules may be required for the conduct of thegame. However, when the situation and forces are selectedspecifically for gaming, such modifications are usually veryslight, often not required at all. If needed, changes aremade with due regard for the general purpose and scope andlevel of the game, and in a manner such that they do notaffect the concept of operations of either side, or restrictunrealistically the players' plans-for achieving their goals.

3-4

* - p,

SThe forces are located on the game board or map; the

simulator or computer, programmed. Gaming personnel arebriefed on the rules, and the signal is given: "Make move l!""Start the game:" etc.

A generalized model of pregame procedures for a two-sided war game is depicted in Figure 3-1. This serves toillustrate the steps taken when the conflict 3ituation isselected or devised for gaming purposes. Similar proceduresare employed for one-sided and n-sided games.

In early war games, and in current games of limitedscope in whicn the personnel, facilities, time for play, andso on have been tested by previous and similar situations,some of the procedures shown in Figure 3-1 are omitted orvaried. For instance, once the general and special situations

are selected, the game may be programmed first, and then the

players told of the situation and of the forces at their

disposal. The players are given a short time to organize and

plan, and the game begins.

Pregame Procedures(When the Conflict Situation is

Selected Prior to-the Decision to Game.)

In this case the conflict situation exists or is assumed

to exist, plans have been prepared by a friendly or Blue Staff

or planning agency to meet the contingency, and someone in

authority has requested that they be evaluated, rehearsed,

or explored by means of gaming techniques. Using the situ-

ation and Blue plans as guides, the director and controlgroup determine the general purpose, scope and level of theproposed game, and select the aspects of the situation that

are pertinent to the rehearsal or analysis. Plans are pre-

pared for the opposition, for example, the Red side.* As

shown in Figure 3-2, the remainder of the pregame procedures

*When possible opposition plans should be prepared by

personnel trained to think and act as officers of the nation

or nations represented.

3-5

ýCOt4TROL GROUP

SELECTION OF

CONFLICT SITUATION

PREPARATIO OF

TH.E WECAR GAMEO_ý

5) _ ELCTION'

PREGAME PRCDRESAM BIFORAN WOS IDDG

(Wheun the coqiflIct Situation iS selected speciticGHY for a War Gomel)

3-6

IHIGHER

AUTHORITY

BLUE

DIRECTOF ]CONTROL GROUP

DETERMINATION OFGENERAL PURPOSE AND

SCOPE AND LEVEL OF GAME

EQUIPMEN BRIE RULESFACILITIES-j -EEC IN1

DRECTIOR

.N ADAPTATION

i PROGRAMM ING'

I PR•AIE BRIEFINGSI

THE WA GAME

SDIRECTOR

PREGAME PROCEDURES FOR A TWO-SIDED GAME(When the conflict situationi ii sciected Prior to tho Decision to Some.)

60-868 FIGURE 3-2

3-7

foýLow those established for the simulation of situations £that are selected solely for the purpose of gaming. Theadaptation process, however, is apt to be somewhat moredifficult.

Conduct of the Game. When a war game is set up or pro-gramed, the forcea might be compared to the pieces arrayedon a chess board. They are ready to be employed accordingto the rules of the game. Unlike chess, however, which hasbeen played under the same rules for many years, the rulesfor war games vary from place to place and from time to timein order to reflect local objectives, available simulationequipment, and the ever changing tools and concept: of war-fare. Thus, early Naval War College games were conducted todevelop tactical doctrine and to study the strategic emplo%-aent of naval forces; the rules were based on the use ofmanual techniques and on the weaponis of the day, the gun, thetorpedc, and the ram. Current Naval War College games arechiefly educational in nature, and the rules reflect theweapons systems of today and tomorrow, the greater scope anddivernicy of military activity, and the introduction ofmac• inb• aiw- lation. 0

Kinds of Rules. Roughly, the rules cover three aene.calareas: (1) Description of the game; (2) Player activities;and (3) Control group activities. The rules dealing withall three regions are made available to the control group.In the case of players rules, practices differ. In somegames they are provided with all the rules; in others, withonly those that they need for play. The latter practice issomewhat preferable. The players have less material toperuse, are more apt to concentrate on their roles, lessinclined to concern themselves with evaluation processes.

The description of the game usually includes a brief andgeneral explanation of the methods, equipment, and type ofmoves. If the game is designed so that one of the sides mayemerge as the winner, the method of picking that side iseplained, or, as noted earlier, this may be done in thegeneal ,ituation.

3-8

I

While it is evident that no clearly defined line ofdemarcation is possible, the rules for tha players can beclassified under two categories, operational rules andimplementation rules. The first type describes approxi-mately the selected real-world features; the second explainsthe methods and procedures employed in the game-world. Theoperational rules tell the players what can be done; theimplementation rules how to do it

The rules for the control group may also be divided veryroughly into two parts: one, those describing the methods ofevaluation; and two, the procedures required to utilize suchassessments in the game. The former, for example, mightexplain the mr thods for determining contacts and damage, andgenerating intelligence and so forth: the latter, what formsto employ, what phones to use, what information to collectfor the critique, etc.

Amount of Detail. Due to local needs, gaming concepts,capabilities, and personnel, the rules for different simula-tions vary widely in both form and content. The rules forsome games are bound in a single cover, those for othergames consist of or appear in two or more publications. Somegames are guided wholly or in part by detailed rules; others,by rules that are general in nature. Certain compilations

assume that the players and the control group will apply therules in their proper sequence, others include proceduresfor their step-by-step application. Some sets of rules takeit for granted that the :ontrol group knows how to translatea given probability into a hit or a miss, a yes or a no, asuccess or a failure; others specify the equipment and pro-

cedures. In computer games where human judgment cannot beapplied to the choice or Interpretation of the rules ormodel during the simulation process, all rules are explicit,all complete.

The strategic manual game formerly conducted by theCommand and Staff Department of the Kaval War College was anexample of a game in which all the rules were general innature, and in which all evaluations were made by the freemethod. It was a two-sided educational game at the strategiclevel and involved the joint and combined operations of all

3

"srvices and several nations. Playing time was four days;£rm time about twenty-six. The level of experience of both

aye~ andcontrol group and the objectives of the game madeof timte adthe number and diversity of forces practicallycompelled their use.

Since the NESincorporates many simulation features,relatively unsophisticated NEWS games employing non-

k~ aWgegated forces require a minimum of rules. However, inU Vames employing aggregated and constructive forces

Iz * certain features cannot be prograimmed into the system andV such games require both general and detailed rules. Compu'CerL games are based on well defined models. Manual games3 such

as the Narine Corps' Landing Force Game are conducted accord-ingq to mny detailed rules and procedures.28 And whilelittle unclassified information ir available on the use of4games used to assess the results of massive nuclear exchanges,it can be assumed that they require detailed rules andmethods of evaluation.

Models Asanoted n Chapter 1 the rules and procedures ~

frthe control an odc fagame for the acting-out of

tecoinflict situation on a game board, a chart, a machine,or a computer. are also known as the model of the game.Mhile the term mmodel" appears to more aptly describe therules and procedures of computer games, its use has certainadvantages in other type games, particularly when a numberof different kinds of conflicts are simulated, and it is con-venient to prepare compatible rules and procedures for eachkind of engagemient. Thum, a game simulating a naval engage-=aut might include a set cf rules and procedures, that is aModel or subodeI, for an antiair simulation, a second fora *=rface action, and a third for submarine activities, proanW anti. the outputs of a submodel, for instance the anti-Iair model. voul4 then serve as inputs to the surface actionmodel. ami so on.

~3~..qmeCycl. In a two-sided war game the Blue arndWe Players make the decisions appropriate to their assumed

oad le"Is and take the actions necessary to implement

3-10

S their dezisions, or if a computer is simulating some or allof the command functions, the computer makes a "Monte Carlo"choice from among a limited number of prograuued courses ofaction. The movements, actions, and interactions of theopposing forces are monitored and evaluated by the controlgroup, or by equipment or computer routines that take oversome or all of the functions of the control group, and theresults transmitted to the commanders. These reports gener-ate new decisions, new actions, and the cycle starts again.The basic game cycle or generalized model of a two-sidedgame is depicted in Figure 3-3. The structure of one-sidedgames is illustrated in Figure 3-4; that of an n-sided game(when n=4), in Figure 3-5.

Moves. In parlor games such as chess each player (side)moves, in turn, a single piece. The moves do not representan interval of time. The moves made in war games, however,represent definite periods of real-world time, and all forcescan be moved simultaneously. The length of a move is theinterval of time for which decisions and evaluations are made.

Moves are used in manual and computer games. Two basicmethods are employed for determining the length of time rep-resented by the move. In the first, the smallest practicalperiod of time is chosen, and all moves in the game are ofthat length. At the end of each move evaluations are made,and status of forces updated, and the cycle started anew fora similar interval of time. The second method provides foran examination of future interactions and the selection of atime period that will jump the game up to the time of thenext event. In coaputer parlance the first is called aVtime-step" game; the second, an "event-store." These termsare applicable to manual games, the former when regular timeintervals are used, the latter when the director estimatesthe time of the next critical event ai-d calls for a move of

corresponding length. Manual gaming, hcever, permits varia-tions of these two basic cycle-time techniques. Thus,although the rules for a particular game specify five-minutemoves the director can call for two or more moves to be madeat one time, thus lengthening the time for which decisionsare made. Again, if the rules permit him to specify thelength of time of a move, he may, after a move is made, providm

3-11

A

•f • CONTROLRE GROU BLU

[AcTONo ACTION

S[ "OHN ITOR_ JI; --L EVALUATE BLU

INOR

TWO - SIDED GAME

3-12

f4

DIRECTORCONTROL

GROUP

BLUE ]-

ONE-SIDEDISION

CIGSION-

MONITORO'N I

\ EVALUATEI]/

i NATURE1 BLUE

AC•TION

ONE- SIDED GoAMES"-we I I6walt ,-41

3.)3-13

DIRECTOR

tj

CONTROL

GROUP BLUE/ -I

I OECUi -EECGSIONASACTION J ACTION !

fUREGIONS

OF 4

l[ MON I TORC

_INIER\LEVALUA.TE•-\ I .;ACTONS•/

F•-fO AC A;TION AC I I i

DEC ,SON [OECIsION

GREE WHITE

FOUR - SIDED GAME

•-aSD IGUR[ 3-5

3-14.•

"some players with intelligence of events that occurred partway through the move and allow them, if they so desire, tomodify their moves.

As far as machine games are concerned, time is usuallycontinuous. Thus, when active NEWS forces are employed,there is no requirement for making moves. A player setsthe course and speed of his force and it sails or flies atthat course and speed until he decides that a change is neces-sary, or until its speed is reduced by enemy action; he throwsan automatic firing switch and a selected weapon fires andcontinues to fire at a selected target until he releases theweapon, runs out of ammunition, or is destroyed by enemyfirepower. If manual techniques are employed in conjunctionwith the machine simulation, the forces represented by hand-r moved symbols are moved for discrete time intervals.

Function of the Rules. The rules of a game model thereal world to the extent that commanders or simulated com-manders are able to react as they would in a similar actualsituation, and that their successes and failures depend notonly upon their own skill but upon the decisions and actionsof opposing commanders and on the vagaries of chance. Ideally,there should be few enough rules to make a game playable,sufficient to provide realism.*

*For gaming purposes the word "realism" means many thingsto many people. Perhaps the best working definition is anoutgrowth of the University of Michigan's 1955 Conference onWar Games: "The approach to realism must be qualitative ratherthan quantitative; the objective of realism is to provide anenvironment that will elicit from the subject (student) thesame response or decision as would be elicited by the cor-responding real-world situation. Once this condition is sat-isfied for responses or decisions which are paztinent to thepurpose of the given simulation, all useful realism (perhapsvalidity is a more appropriate term here) has been achieved."Thomas and Deemer observed: "We should deplore the tendencyto introduce trappings and ornaments in simulation to gainthe 'appearance' of reality when it is the 'essence' whichwe need."321"• ~3-15

Evolution of the Rules. Normally, the rules for an oper-ational game are devised to meet the requirements of a par-ticular organization: a college, perhaps, or a researchactivity. The approach to the problem reflects local needs,personnel backgrounds and preferences, and the kind and amountof simulation equipment available. In all cases, however,the preparation of the rules and procedures for a game islargely a matter of judgment and experience plus a certainamount of trial and error, and in most instances begins byanswering or seeking the answers to such questions as: Whatsort of conflict situation is to be simulated? For what pur-pose or purposes? What is the possible range of commandlevels? What service or services are involved? What type ortypes of operations? How many sides?

A crude analysis of the answers discloses the possibleextent and nature of the forces, weapons systems, communi-cations, and area of operations, and delimits to some degreethe pertinent command decisions, implementing actions, andthe sort of intelligence required by the decision-makers.It provides an insight into possible aggregations and a grossselection of real-world processes and interactions. Thisinitial choice includes all forces, weapons, events, processes,and so on that appear essential to the selected conflict sit-uation and to similar situations so that the rules can bedesigned to cover as broad a range of activities as possible.For example, as observed by Commander Davis and Dr. Tiedeman,in an article in the U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, " .in an ASW game, refueling of DDs from the carrier of a HUKgroup may be important." 3 0 This process would, therefore,be listed in the preliminary crude analysis of this type ofsituation.

The processes and interactions isolated by the earlyanalysis are examined more closely to determine whether ornot the proposed simulation is feasible in view of the "stateof the art," and the equipment and personnel available.Should the ccnflict be treated ac a whole: or separated intoits component sub-conflicts and the rules or a model preparedfor each? At this stage is it better to attempt the simula-tion of a selected major phase, say the ship to shore move-ment of an amphibious operation, and to prepare the rules forthe overseas movement, advance force operation, and other

3-16

.. .t

phases at a later date? What assumptions can be made thatwill simplify the rules and that are acceptable for the pur-pose of the game? Thus, can all ships be grouped into alimited number of classes for damage assessment purposes?Can surface-to-air missiles and surface action weapons beignored in an ASW game? Is the refueling of the DDs fromthe carrier sufficiently important to be included? "Unfor-tunately, the game designer is continually confronted withchoices. If he fails to insert in his model such detailsas DD refueling, he may produce a game adequate for the prob-lem in hand but inadequate for other similar problemsGreat savings accrue if many possible uses are consideredearly in the model building process.'' 3 0 However, simula-tion time, personnel, and equipment capacity delimit thescope and application of the possible uses that can bedesigned into the rules.

Concepts are developed for the simulation of the pro-cesses, forces and weapons systems, detection and com-munication systems, and the types of interactions finallyselected. For instance, if the preceding analysis had estab-lished the need for simulating DD refueling, how should thisbe done? By keeping track of the ships' fuel expenditures?how? Using average consumption rates? Or would refuelingat regular intervals suffice? In a computer game the firstmethod might use a large amount of computer storage capacity;in a manual game it would be somewhat time consuming. Thesecond method is simpler, quicker. Which concept is bestsuited to the purposes of the game? For the level of command?If a game is conducted on the NEWS does the number of forcesexceed the capacity of the system? If so, is the problembest solved by reducing the number of forces, by aggregatingcertain forces, or by supplementary manual techniques?

How are weapons employed? Will individual commanders

specify weapons and targets, or is it assumed that when

opposing forces come within range they will open fire? Isit necessary to provide accounting procedures for ammunitionexpended by all weapons simulated, or only for missiles ortorpedoes? Can some wqapons be aggregated? Can it beassumed, as it is in many games conducted on the NEWS, thateven though forces are within range a commander will notemploy his weapons until he is in the correct firing position,

3-17

or should such an assumption be made for a percentage of theengagements?

Within certain distances the probability of a radardetecting a target varies inversely with range. Should theseprobabilities be cranked into the game, or should a detec-tion always be a "yes" proposition at a predetermined range?The first concept is usually used in computer games. Dueto the design of the system the latter method is employed inNEWS games. Depending upon the price the analyst wishes topay in terms of complexity and game time, either-concept canbe used in manual games.

Is it practicable to separate all commanders of friendlyforces, to insert communications delays and difficulties?Should all communications be perfect, or should compromisesbe made?

Must evaluation procedures be rigidly prescribed as inmost computer games and in cases where experienced umpiresare not available? Does the purpose of the game indicatethat rigid methods are preferable even though experiencedpersonnel will be employed as umpires? Is the time for playsufficient for detailed assessment techniques? Should thedirector or other members of the control group be permittedto modify or set aside evaluations made by a computer or byumpires working in accordance with established rules andformulas? Are some interactions more amenable to freeumpiring, others to rigid, or are the objectives of the gamebest attained by employing free methods of evaluation in allinstances?

Should the game be conducted by the time-step method,or should it employ the event-store technique? Is it neces-sary or desirable to spell out each procedure, or can theplayers and the control group apply the rules withoutdetailed instructions?

The selected processes, as modified by the assumptions,are described in accordance with the evolved gaming concepts,and these descriptions constitute the model, or !;he rulesand procedures of the game. Thus, if prior analysis andstudy had determined that refueling of the DDs from the

3-18

carrier should be included in the game, and that this processwould be simulated by the players actually plotting the move-ments of the ships, then the rules of the game would specifythat this process would be carried out and would furnish orrefer to tables that pr-vided the necessary data. (The spe-cial situation would d- :ribe the assumed initial fuel levels.)Other rules would tell the players how to move their shipsand, when applicable, the length of moves and how to use theplotting devices employed in the game.

A rule might state that a certain per cent of the totalaircraft on a field or carrier are operational. Another,that if a player wants to send off a strike he must preparea flight plan to a specified scale and indicate the numberand types of planes and weapons. Other rules provide forumpire checks on the number of aircraft, the planned radiusof action of each type, and weapons availability and load-ings. Additional ru]es may stipulate the methods for computingaborts, losses,-from aerial combat and surface-to-air missiles,the amount and kind of damage inflicted on the various targets,and the types and flow of intelligence.

Depending upon the simulation concepts, the rules maycover each pertinent feature or aggregate some of the events.Fcr x�.�~ple, if each of the major steps in an interceptorversus bomber interaction are to be considered, the rules maystate that when a fighter approaches to within 12 miles of abomber it has an 80 percent probability of detecting thebomber; if it detects the bomber, a 90 percent probability ofattaining a launching position; and should it reach thatposition, a 70 percent probability of destroying the bomber.If only the over-all interaction is to be played, the ruleswould state that the fighter has a 50 percent probability ofdestroying the bomber.

The rules may tell the umpires to use the given numbers,or to use or not use them as they see fit. If the freemethod of evaluation is specified, data are not usually fur-nished although, if possible, the data should be available incase an umpire wishes to refer to them.

In either a step-by-step or less detailed case, the rulesmay call for the use of random number tables and explain their

"3-19

use, or they might specify the use of a pair of ordinary dice,a pair of 20-sided dice, or leave to the umpire the methodof translating a probability into the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. Sometimes, when a pair of regulardice, for instance, are called for, the tables of data maynot mention probabilities, but merely say: if a 2, 4, 5, 6,7, 8, 9, or 12 is rolled, the fighter detects the bomber,and so on.

In some instances when evaluation procedures are appliedby members of the control group they need not be described inthe rules. For instance, consider the play of a NEWS game inwhich two planes of an aggregated force of four are armed withnuclear weapons; two with conventional. The force suffers aloss of fift, percent en route to the target. Which planesare lost, the two carrying the big bang, the'two with theiron bombs, or one of each? An experienced member of thecontrol group does not need rules to find the answer. Asshown in Appendix B, he simply makes a decision based on theappropriate probability distribution.

Since such parameters as detection, conversion, and killprobabilities may differ from play to play, and since thesevariations can occur., at least within limits, without affect-ing the structure of the rules or the model, the data areoften furnished separately, and the rules refer to the propertables or graphs. This method is more realistic, more flexi-ble, and sometimes permits the rules to be published under alower security classification than would be possible if thedate were included.

The preparation of the rules or the model is facilitatedin many instances by flow charting the selected processes andevents. Rules are also developed by actually trying out por-tions of the game, a type of activity sometimes termed"design play." Another method is the use of or modificationof rules from other games. For example, many of Livermore'srules were based on the works of German authors; some ofLittle's rules were adapted from an Italian game.

The rules or model may take the form of a verbal, graph-ical, or mathematical description, or combinations of theseforms. The rules are often tested in an "exploratory play"

3-20

or a pregame rehearsal in order to find and to eliminate thebugs that inevitably appear in spite of the analyst's careand regardless of his experience.

In general, the initial rules for a game should treatonly the bare essentials. Other features may be added asexperience with the game points out their need and feasibil-ity,* and as new systems and concepts develop. Increasesin the number of proceeses simulated tend to raise the com-plexity of the game and the time required for play. Hencesuch changes cannot be made haphazardly, or at the whim ofevery newcomer to the game, but only after careful consider-ation of their value and effect on the game as a whole. Newrules should be integrated with the old, and some of thelatter discarded or modified to keep the game from becomingunmanageable or too time consuming. Otherwise, as has hap-pened so often in the history of gaming, the number of rulesand the amount of detail contained in the rules increasesuntil the game becomes too unwieldly or too lengthy for thepurpose and personnel for which it was intended.

Data. Where do the planning factors, hit probabilities,"attrition factors, and other data come from that are used inthe special situations, the rules, and in the adjuncts to therules? They are derived from a variety of sources: histori-cal records, analyses of past actions, the experience andknowledge of military officers, lesser scale war games,**military periodicals and books, and from classified materialsuch as intelligence reports, contractors' estimates,

.It is interesting to note that the first set of rules

for Naval War College games required four pages; the lastcomplete set published in 1950 and used during the early 50's,80 pages plus fire effects tables and other data. Currently,no single set of rules cover the broad spectrum of theCollege's games.

*.. . in practice the smaller details are treated insmall games, and the results form the basis for conventionalrules or summary decisions of the umpires when they arise asincidents of the higher games." 1

) 3-21

operational specifications, reports, tests, field experiments,and studies of future weapons systems concepts and capabili-ties. Their collection, analysis, and adaption to gaming isa never ending endeavor, a constant challenge to the skill,ingenuity, and perseverance of the analyst. The tables ofvisibility and of recognition employed in the first NavalWar College games were copies of those used in an earliergame, the maximum speeds of the ships were obtained frompas. records, and the numerical expressions of their combatvalues were based on the judgments of experienced naval offi-cers.* Since, additions to and revisions of the data havebeen made on an almost continuing basis to reflect, or toanticipate, the increased speeds, ranges, and lethal effectsof vehicles and weapons, and the changing methods and conceptsof war and of the simulation of war. Every available sourceof information has been and continues to be culled for thebest possible data.

A great deal of basic data such as maximum speeds, ratesof march, fuel consumption, personnel strengths, replacementrates, construction times, transportation capacities, ratesof travel of messengers, and so on can be obtained or extra-polated from classified sources and from material compiled"For Official Use Only;" for instance, FM 101-10, StaffOfficers' Field Manual, Organization, Technical and LogisticalData. A surprisingly large amount of information can be foundin unclassified periodicals and publications: Jane's all theWorld's Aircraft, Jane's Fighting Ships, Handbook on theSoviet Army**, Fahey's Ships and Aircraft of the U.S. Fleet,etc. When data are not available on the equipment of othernations it is customary to use similar "own" side information.

*"The rules . . . were adapted from ascertained factswhen possible, and from the best obtainable opinion whenactual data could not be had." 1 5

"**Handbook on the Soviet Army, Department of the Armypamphlet No. 30-50-1, 1958. For sale by the superintendentof Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25,D.C., Price $2.00.

3-22

in addition to classified sources, press releases, maga-zines, and the records of budget hearings provide cost esti-mates of weapons and delivery systems. The publications ofthe Bureau of the Census, the United Nations, the IndustrialConference Board, etc., and standard reference works, periodi-cals, and newspaper items furnish information on populationsand their age and occupational distributions, gross nationalproduct3, indexes of production, and on other factors usefulfor high level games.

What are the effects of terrain, time, and weather; ofcommunication and production delays; of damaged transporta-tion and production facilities; of equipment, ammunition, andfood shortages? Examinations of peacetime maneuvers and pro-duction schedules and the records of past battles and cam-paigns provide an insight into these problems. Interrogationsof military leaders, economists, and other authorities resultsin numbers and qualitative information, often in the natureof educated guesses.

Quantitative information on the reliability of systemsand weapons, detection and hit probabilities, the effects ofenemy countermeasures, and the amount and effects of damagecaused by hits of different weapons on different targets aredifficult, ofttimes impossible to obtain. If test or experi-mental data are available, the analyst is confronted withsuch questions as: Were the conditions under which the testswere conducted truly indicative of operating conditions?* Didthe personnel have the degree of skill and experience in themaintenance and employment of the weapon or system that couldreasonably be expected from wartime military personnel, orwere they highly trained manufacturers' engineers and tech-nicians? Should the results of the tests be degraded toreflect field conditions and, if so, by how much? The analystmay derive the answers from his own experience; more likelyhe would question experienced officers. When no data are

*This problem is one of long standing. Thus in 1908Sayre observed: "Many of us have formed exaggerated ideasof the effectiveness of firearms from our observation of theeffects of firing on the target range." 1 0

3-23

available he must seek the numbers from experienced personnel,and translate the qualitative information and educated guessesthat they furnish into numbers and mathematical functions.This latter method which was particularly valuable in theearly days of gaming is, and will continue to be, useful inthose areas where there are simply no quantitative inforina-tion. This is also true for other types of operational games.In an article in the August 1957 issue of Operations Research,Bellman and others describe in detail how the formulas for abusiness game were designed to reflect qualitative information.2 6

Information concerning the overall effects of a week ora month of a given level of Blue shipping and ASW effortversus a specific Red subsurface threat, or the effect onpeople and production of a massive nuclear exchange are farmore difficult to obtain than data on the possible outcomesof the interactions of individual units and weapons. Someinformation may be gleaned from the histories, reports, andanalyses of past wars, for example, the reports of FleetAdmiral King,* or the analyses contained in Methods ofOperations Research by Morse and Kimball,** and updated toreflect current or future operational conditions. For newerand untried weapons and systems the outcomes of analyticalgames of a tactical nature provide inputs to higher levelsimulations. Or again, the knowledge of broadly experiencedmilitary officers, or of experts in other fields, may beutilized.

The data furnished for the game should be consistentwith the concepts of simulation. If the rules are based onaverage values, these should be provided; if on the employ-ment of distributions, tables or graphs. For example, should

*U.S. Navy at War, 1941-1945, Official Reports by FleetAdmiral Ernest J. King, USN, United States Navy Department,1946.

**Philip M. Morse, and George E. Kimball, Methods ofOperations Research. (New York: The Technology Press of MITand John Wiley & Sons, 1951).

3-24

past records of mechanical breakdowns of a piece of equipmentreveal the distribution shown in Figure 3-6, then in thefirst instance the average value of 660 hours would be fur-nished and used in the game, and all such equipment operatedfor 660 hours without undergoing a specified maintenanceperiod would suffer a breakdown. In the latter case thegraph or a table would be provided, and a chance device em-ployed. If detections during a simulation are certain atfixed distances, cr between a known range of values, thenthese numbers should be provided rather than probabilities ofdetection, for they are the numbers that are valid in thegame world. Again, if a player is provided with 0.5 hitprobability for a shipboard missile, he should also be toldwhether or not this figure includes the reliability of thesystem. Otherwise he can assume only that the probabilityholds for each attempted missile launching in the game, andshould this not be the case, he may end up playing a game inwhich the probabilities are far different from those whichhe had been led to expect.

Umpires. The members of the control group who makedecisions affecting the course and outcome of a game are"called umpires, sometimes referees. If one such individualmeasures the slant range between a'missile-firing ship anda bomber, consults a table of probabilities, refers to atable of random numbers or some other chance device, andcomes up with a decision, he is said to be "umpiring" thegame. However, if a computer is used, the term umpiring isnot employed even though the computer may, in effect, takethe same steps, and come up with the same answer. If a mem-ber of the control group measures the range, but does notmake the hit-or-miss decision, he is not, strictly speaking,an umpire.

Umpires have three basic duties. The first is to monitorthe actions of the players and to enforce the rules of thegame, or if no rules cover the situation, to keep the playersfrom acting unrealistically. For example, if the rules statethat it takes 16 hours to construct a bridge, then the umpirewill not permit a player to send tanks across before thattime has elapsed. If the rules do not consider this con-tingency, then the umpire does not permit the commander

- • 3-25

PERCENT OFaREAKDOWNS

30

25

"20 20

-15

-I0

400 500 600 700 800 900

AVERAGE660

HOURS SINCE LAST MAINTENANCE PERIOD60-SSG

Figure 3-6

3-26

concerned to put up a bridge in an unrealistically shortperiod of time, or he tells him how many hours (according tothe umpire's judgment) it will take to bridge the river.Should a rule state: When a ship loses 40 percent of itseffectiveness its radar search capability is destroyed; then,if that amount of damage occurs, the umpire takes the stepsnecessary to implement that rule.

The sec-ond major function of the umpires is the evalua-tion of interactions in accordance with the methods and dataprescrihed by the rules of the game.

A third duty of the umpires is to provide the playerswith the amounts and kinds of information and intelligencethat would be available under similar circumstances in thereal world. This task usually requires a high degree of mil-itary experience and, in games conducted for educationalpurpose.i, a high degree of imagination.

The organization of the control group and the duties ofits various members, including the umpires, are described inthe rules of the game. Depending on the complexity of thegame, and the equipment available, the organization of thecontrol group varies from the extremely simple to the verycomplicated; its membership from one to perhaps ninety ormore. Based upon the real or assumed familiarity, or lack offamiliarity, of the umpires with umpiring techniques andchance devices, the umpire rules and/or briefings vary fromthe detailed to the general. Additionally, the umpiresshould be briefed on, or have an opportunity to study, theplans and intentions of the opposing sides.

The difficulties inherent in the application of the con-trol procedures have in the past more or less dictated arequirement that the key positions in the control group befilled by personnel with prior gaming experience. The cur-rent trend appears to favor the establishment of permanent orat least semi-permanent control organizations. Such groups,because of their experience with the rules of the game andwith umpiring data and devices, are usually able to keep thegame moving smoothly and at a reasonable pace. Permanent orsemi-permanent control groups are particularly useful whenthe rules for the control of the game are involved, when an

3-27

- 2*~b*=. __i .. . . . .

understanding of complicated simulation equipment and pro-cedures is necessary, or ". . when analysis and objectivequantitative data tell the tale." 2 7

Probability. More likely than not, probabilistic notionsare required in the compilation of the data, the preparationof the rules, and the implementation of many of the controlprocedures of a war game, for as was correctly observed inthe description of one of the earliest naval war games, "Inactual war a thousand mishaps occur, a thousand cases which

vary the result to modify the decisions of a Commander,etc."* More recently, Admiral Morison noted the tremendousinfluence of chance in warfare, particularly naval warfare.**

If an event can happen in h equally likely ways, and

fail to happen in .*'equally likely ways, then the chance or

probability of success, p, is expressed by the following

formula:

p= h ,and

the probability of failure, q, by:

q= mh t m

Since the event must either happen or not happen, p/q = 1., or

certainty.

A probability is expressed as a common fraction, adecimal fraction, or as a percent.

*A. Colombo. "A Naval War Game." Rivista Marittima,

December 1891. (Translated by William McCarty Little, 1892.)

**Samuel Eliot Morison, History of United States Naval

Operations in World War II (Boston: Little, Brown, 1947),I, p. x.

3-28

) An event that is ceitain to happen has a piobability ofoccurrence of one; an event that cannot possibly happen, a

probability of zero. If the occurrence of an event isneither impossible nor *.ertain, the probability of its occur-rence is some numerical value greater than zero and less th:.none (or one-hundred percent). The greater the probabilityof an event, the more likely it is eto occur; the smaller theprobability, the less likely. Thus, the capture by the

Allies of a permanent bridge across the Rhine during WcrldWar II was possible, but- the probability of such an event

happening was so slight that neither side ever consideredsuch a contingency in the preparation of their plans.* (,f

it had been a war game instead of a war, a simulation inwhich the analyst had translated the remote possibility into

a low probability, what would have been the reactions of thedirector and of the players if, as the Ninth Armored reachedthe Rhine, a roll of the dice had ruled that the Ludendorffbridge at Remagen was intact?)

Many of the probabilities employed in war games arederived from field tests and experiments. For example,should a gun shooting at a target at a given range score423 hits out of 846 firings, its single shot hit probability(SSHP), p, experimentally determined for that range andtarget is:

p= 423 = 0.5

846

The larger the number of trials, the greater the reliabilityof the determination.

If an unbiased coin is tossed there are two equallylikely ways in which it can fall, heads or tails. The theo-retical or mathematically determined probability of tossinga head is, therefore, 0.5.

*Ken Hechler. The Bridge at Remagen. (New York:

Ballantine Books, 1957).

"3-29

arý i ~-{ ur.dc~c

~jrsoi n te ave.~~~ can &te pretato it:

n ;3Ca3 2w the ' of trial-- Thus, if SOO rcJids,nr ~ ~ ~ ~ttf IZz sr.-c~ t t probabllity ot 0.5. are fIred,

tz'rcc h~~t 6. a .O Vr a~ U

c Cy prticu'vz; Crr.ýrtq. or ttýau, only one of t'WCr~~bario tO2Ur but el-0k4ch41 event will haM-zn can-fl*t b p~tced Rarr in a war cain., th. firing of1 a

W~~trn-, cwbvlmulstee by a chance dsvice that is known to,-'z t '-dp-Abs: of varenas, a4 mthod knawn- as theý

Itt &zrl& tochbnique. Thor a waepon with a single shothtt tsn~hiity of 0.5, ttro Slhzzce device could be a csini

' ýtre bitz; caarn, c ht't: andA a tons deter-minee therw,-e4c nn vri-Lable. N, Utsh nutcxr of hits. vhich

T rtr of refltt rut irql f rcs a f ow or mry f Irazngs& ~ or honr~srof sutcceess9 of other events hntx~ng~m-~ ~'~t~ztd prct tt itic of occurrence. can be

r~t aeorrepc -,In numbe of tosses of a coin~o .rtiit o sccssis 0.5) or 'by the -oseo of

~*I" ~'3 c~anz~~ovce. hený devices incl-.-d~e ordinary4 2C -t icoa, amd tablbia of randomr nr-&ntexr.

n-n~ cc rbc~t: rcaaabi ity of Success of ar~-~F~ zcttits o tt rz mor events, the pro- bifltr

trt-- c~t~h ciroc n o-n or -,szaroated, -ane4i- g tNz ez tiii-t ioas o f ac- ceurren ce o:

-- ~~r--~r a'r'~ fhc in a f r vrersausa a bcri-jr f 11*-3-0 firhtct-* pro7batilit468 Of detectxcr.,X, M~l are: 0 30 GOG 0, and 0. 70, rcapecttvcv

-~ ~ ~ f~qbz~r deezr~ying thebut;0.Ni S4 or for practical p- rpac~ica,

-0- -'S7j 7 --unxl system. *it---h 02ýit,~~~~~ 17= -' .hký nc -j~ rb

Sri 10 -4. x 0.80 x 0.80, or 0.4096.- not U.80.i Drobabil,'v oil a shipboard missile is 0.50, but

p t-:h tha t th-t4 ml as le vi 1 eluchdicoris 0>.SO then the overall probab:.Iity that the SmiusAla

!, i* is G.S0 x 0.50. or 0.25.

Ihe pr~~Lb1t .e associated with the occurren~ce ornm_-c._rrence off chance events are usually injected into rigid

znd zezir'g~id games in one of two ways: an aver&". 'raluez:ras randcr -ý, ariables. Ax noted in Chapter 1. vwieni the

r Ies specify z7he use of averages, the model mid the gamiý r*e refer-red to as exp~ected.-value or deteministic: When~ the

0e;'s spec ify the use of a chance device to detOVUL'3* whetheran eŽvent o~ccurs or does noCt occur, the model or gA is kncras a stacnastic, prot-abilistic or Monite Carlo miidel or game.

Sgames rmpioy both the expected-value and the stochastictechn~iques.

L3:ipcted-vajue tkdei*. rn games employing the expected-':al-e techniq'te, if a chance event arisen, the -expected oraverage restult i's assumd to Occur. For instance, if aveanocn in a gat~ is fired five times, each with a sinal*-

-Uot i pr!obalility of 0.20. then the average or expectednura,_-er ct hits is 5 x 0.20, or 1. and one hit is scored. If

iesaum weapoin ii fired under t~je sam cot~it ions later anI- he game. a ringle hit will agait% be cbtainad. This pro-

z~nure is fo11c~ved even t)iýuqh the number of firings is inmlias in the ab~ove ftxa~le. or i-%r~e, way 500 firings, in whichIcase a value of 500 x 0.20, or 100 hit. woold be obtained.

vvpeztod-value modxels use average rates of fire. aver&"..~umtior rates, and so on. For example, if the data pro.-

v'ided in Fiaure 3-6 were used in a gai". th~e average value~f660 hours ra~ther than the distribi~tion would be emloyod.

and the rult-s w#ould specify that after 660 houars without7ýaintenance, the particuliar equipmr-t in question would suffera mnachanical failure. Io~ite of thi s quipownt (in the qisil)w--.t;d fail before 660, ?,ouru; no-ne wculd operate longer than

Expect&A-value gams often yield fractional results.!hits. 3.20 aircraft deottroyed, and so on. When it is

3-31I

------------------------------ - - ------____

3u-C' values, etersmpear-.t&ti .

rpdmru~lqpoeua rr sdt eiewehr1o

Ut r e rd o 3 o i c atAst o ~ . T e l t e

Wfui a npy c a c e i e i 'h w -ne n i

J* tetsi w.?reapo farno ubrtbei

VO 9aOredvcanmbrfo 1t 8dtrIe

t hat~ ar cof o wo aircraft aresamtroyed. ah lubrarm 9tter0

tbt* Sircra ft (se. AM*end ix A).

Ja~gtMUS Sris21e. In model using the ctochastic orSVISMIAitic rathod, the occuermce or nonoccuzrrence of

AA..P._o eavat* in the game are determined by charm*, i.e., by*he fwm wvicesu~ch an a pair of &ico or a table of random

-If a wp in fired five times, it may stcore 0,3., 34 o 3hits, theexact numer dep~edir.9 upon thie

MW1 of the dic. or tnhentxiou in the random number tablexA). If tboo sase weapon is fired "again, it 1.9

likely tbut a diffevent nlwmber of hits viki be scored.ft~AWd Me w1~ U* ized a large rn.usr of tines durinqdoP 9owmm One the numbar of hits scored will approach the

ft ara"e f~w stocheatic games Opecify the use Of dia-tw~be~tiAm retbw then -verags. Thus, if the data furnishedby VgW* 3-4 us" used in a gam, a chance device would be

%Wto detewL~M the 1609th of timen that each PLece ofiven010 wel J fuzbctice witbout a ixtek*~mn. oed

doou suee, a*Pi.c of equipmnt Pmight requaire uaintenanceMMOM! 9ftuboa, a seconad after 500 hours, and so on as mhown

~im ra ~Most)'r or not a gam designer selectsas~or a deterministic nodl is based upon a

a~*tof ftetown including the preferenoce of the designer.Owss~al, stoctsvic moels are used when games are to be

I 1tag of timx (as in cepputer simulations) andStAs1* za to obtain a diaitribution of resuluts: expected-welas 1fl %ban t'he 9ine is con~ducted onice or & a 11

gof tisme. sad it is desired to e.1imiust. the possjL-cWtrra a cm f either a.oomd at bad lack. Thus, a 1922

- -- - - - - ----------------------------_______ ------

u )IzO: a ~ pov:sl-oe by dzce or other gwc'hzt~ica~ppv an ZfcTrticil Maneuver a previouisly evaj-

ý Et ac.c:. Thx5 .q- done at one ttaip. The faultSb:s rh.Itt;& 1 fth-z in a lihited nuxber of trials the

.tD• chance ay trn up every tine, and false conclusionsh< drawn as to what is on the average to be e@eeted.0

12 u f su c ieutly lonq series of trzals the chance factcrb0e eltainated. As time is not afforded in the college

n~e to make reppar-ated trials of each situation, it is -rc-ed bette r to eliminate the chance elennt, and to aply

w,• -e estirnzte to he average perforeAnce, so that under a.- cxt &et c: condltii.cns a given recultv will always follw.n

Stahasacnode3.s scmetwes -Use average values toretven!er a few of the less significant (for the particular7cxUŽV dsriLhutIcns. For instance, a game employing =hibflypr- aLilisttc techniques might use average acquisition timesto: r ; zaxle batteries, t-ereby reducing the co~lnity of thecx1 and the tine required for play. On the other hand,

expvc:ct-value rd~els scmetimes rely an chance devices to,und-off" fractional values, or to determine the outcoe of

-rte or a small number of trials. Thus, son of the rules-N Nav! 7 War College gams specified the u•e of aver•ge

expected valuve fer determining the results of gunfire. ad- r:c÷ •se z! c-ance devices for evaluating the effects of

3-3.5

!KAXYAL GAESI• I

r F 1924 un•til coputer and machine gamin wr itro-ed the late 1950's. all war gam were Aand-plals-

that i h. tr- wern cornucted by manual tecniques.9am .3f von Pisavitr and von eardy, of Livermre Md

Little. tnd the later gazs developed and t ymilitary schools and staffs in England, in the ftdted StSb,in Germany, and in Jpan, were manual gmes. oswwith-oi bias. war gaming history attests to their efficacy -

both as educational aids and analytical tools.

WIth the beginning of computer ELMiatio. s amaysts0bequ iled by the prospects of maLy replications in aber-periods of tite, looked forward to the end of MUMal g940.When the Navy Electronic Warfare Simulator was installed,a few officers believed -- and unrstandably so -- tbatthe use of manual qamnq techniqu*s at the Naval War (fol3.lwould .o lonqez be necessary. As is not surpristing. nwitbof these expectations materialized. Despite their min, ad-

vantaez.o-terz -nd ziaIt-Ora l.ack~ some of the flax-ibility of manual techniques, and are premmtly Ie "-able to the play of high-level educational type gams. a&-though they may be valuable adjuncts to aumh gams.

Manual methods are currently epoyed -- either aloae

or in conjunction with other techniques -- by my activ-ities for the simulation of military and ctber tYpes ofconflict situations, nd Munoubtedly will eootinue to beused for many years to come.

x-ual gus can be played by orwanizations that cam-

not afrord, or do not want, computemrs or other simalatiomeavj_-ez. Th eq•ipm~t in ilomIer~ive. ftle.ting offices

and oth:"t available meces u•mally can be adapted to qio2. Alsoet any rnuer and type of forces can be repre-

cnn-ted. Tim My be compressed or .xpaad to meet bestt'i o£hate rquiremns of a particular facet of the

4-1

real f rom~r of the area of oper'atiozs týz ant'ý~e.E_?iN ovrail1 areA of~era~tionn may be at ote scale" th'e rý!-qlian of Interecticns. Ptt a !arger scale. if un'~cte!ýee,-.events eqxpad the a--*a of play, addition~al maps can~ %;s._allybe- procuared without tox* m'uch difficulty. in cotrtain type-ot ahnuw1 r&Ivlation~a, q~mw tin* can he faster than realt~ime -- for examnple, the Electric boat Company's SutmarineVaictical Gm, or tthe Naval War Colle-ge's Strategic 'Mar Game.

Mawtaai gme may b-e aduict tonal or analytical. They can.0040o"ýs &ny dtaired range -% command levels, include one,)%m, at thre* military zervicvs, simulate amy type or types0* operstions, and eevrace any area of operations.

1mumal gawas Pay be *ne, two, or n-sided, and m~ay bep~*u.8 ithr open or closed. Evaluations can be free,tt~14, r swairigid.

At thts ata&" in the art of simulation, manual tech-Alqu* are speesbat better than othor simulation methods 4%ernth b vatiscal wid military characteristics of terrain are

~~tw~t cm~eldeations. They are also useful for il1lus -"taimq the oveall progress of a military operation, a pic-

t.that is almost Axpossible to ol-tain in the real world.tti~wtaac, at the Marilb C~orps Efteational Cerste: tshe~hibouaAssault Trairber . .can be used as a stage

V$K vhicht the air, sea, and land aspects of combat can be9r~b~e1Iydisplaye.d by placing upon it the ship, aircraft,

indtarrain models required for the operation. Here the sti.~-&atC~n see an entire am~phibious operation in niniature

"*'A cmsidorab1.. savinqs in tim.e results from the use,of th*A s a as camyred to real operations. A twenty- four-Usr &w wsit can be omleted in abot three and onee-hal fhotg of 9gin time. bths saving result* fro the use of a

~te~ad tiie seas,. in the gin. and fro alainintiori of -%heimit~ forforce, to gist into position, as they wmould have

to do inm a see exercLOse" 31

*ft C. Wolfe, w8and, Sweat, and Scholars, - Svali

4-2

Manzcjalqax~es-tre useful for determining and qaining unzr.,;zqht ir~to the -Locesecs thali are to be simulated on a.-ovrputer, dfld for theee reasons, so~o compter g5mm

are handplayed prior to translating to machine(coap*terl lanqrLaqe, .30) -out of a large nvwber of

~'ob~ .arables. the (wanual) q&oe serves to highlight thecritical cnes. -31

Kanual games are useful tools for teaching war 96iningtech~niques. Foz example,.%+.en a war gaing course MWr%jaming. 9706) was f-statblished at the U. S. Naval AcadeWin the spring of 1965, Manual '.~ qamiiq Was included aspart of the course, Mtanual war gaming is also part of thecourse 'Introduction to war Games, - which is requir)4d forall students enrolled in the operations Analyeis/SyetmaAnalysis Curriculum o59 the U. S. Naval Pootgreduat. schol,Monterey, California.

Linitations.

W1ith som exceptions, as were notind earlier, manualgames in general proceed Duch *towr than clock time. Tluiis particularly true when many forces are involved and whenevaluations are mtade according to the rigid method. After

the pLayers make a move they wait a loing time for the con-trol group to assess interactions. tranmit intelligence.and call for the ne~xt move. During this waiting period theplayercs may have little or nothing to 40 (at least an faras the game is concerned), or they may be .8 . plannizgahead - - planning wiith time that would Ibe non-exiStent Onthe actual b .attlefleld..32 As the history of. war gamingreveals, thoes periods Of mdead tiXI. between INves hav*"-aused more dissatisfaction with var gaming than anY othelrfeature. awd led to the intrOductiOu Of the free metbod Of~evalu~at ion and other techniques aimed at shortening theperiod between Ro'~es.

The slow pace of umusi games also cuts he~avily intothe curriculum time of military Colle0ee- "Lis becamparticularly notice-able when "Wrld War II and sbaudevolonfltnt . a Nil;eaded mmftyfold tko fitids with 10hidaa Itigib cdeilr must be fmiliar. In the (Naval) IWar(:lleqe the problin of proviiing -8 q'ftO tIme . (was)

4-3

me i. par by suhstp -s reuto -,f tn-c:ýnsu# -

gw bomird prob-lan p1.ayti and chart plot problen iays

OPPrt-~ty toc-Ortider the various courses of action, toawei'h atnaie when there is tixe so that they canMalt the prprdecisions wher there io little or no time.

Whtil"t j me members of the -ontral giroup learn as m~ucha ;7ý_aas the players (and a few way learn even more),

t~Aeare usually some control group duties that are purelyv*& gaming functions, or that are more or less routineeniutaationaa, bo~okkieeping, clerical, or drafting tasks.If officiers or executives are assigned such tasks. they#aia neither &Decivion-,-aking experience ~or deci'sion-madiaq information 4 definite weakness in a game. fror

ther arp~eiv. veer, by using war gaing and sup-porting personnel to perform som of these tasks, thislItitation has been. minimized in Naval War College games.Unoy other war qai~ng activities also eploy gaming p-er-ha"eme for evaluation prociedares and the application of#Otwly gaming techniques, officers for the handling of"alIttaryt force-..

A~ltbotwgh a limited man~eZ c~f replications may be pos-sib3*. it is generally not feat,"-e to replay a rigidlycaxsfol1U mwanua game a large number of times in order toObtain results that are of statistical1 significance.**

'-?raik Virdui. "Thet Naval War College Today.-US awat April 1953, p. 366.

'Ta sme cases, repeated plays of manual gag-es hav.ebescomiducted For instance, 120 tactical gaes were pl.ayc:ý

at the NJaval Vir College diuring 1896 to evaluate the effectsof superior speed. Ans a result, It was conctod-:, that -thevalu* of 30 por cent superi.nr speed to a fleet of ships ý-i :tnila. of battle is less Lhan one-twelfth of' its total tactic-a'

4-4

.. ztse-.. v:he :curse of events, orU. n :lo: t 1 :4:ec. ;-r. he cqaa4 knawledge qleaned frogeeU!.... p. • ...

e. r .. 1 ~ juxree

It. aczorian~c_ u'A"th the rules of pla), the simulation- " nt.em'•.oyeo . a war ga;w. enables the players toex:erzise :>e:r •'tnd functions, and the control group toc~rrv zut -ts monritring and evaluation duties. For most-: iltary games, eq-uipment, de%7ices, and materials ae

needed to simulate ,_ r-&present the area of operations,f:cr~es n,.-eracticns, and communications.

In the real world, a force usually has under i"sA-tediate surveiilance a portion of the area of operations.The inforretion obtained frc- surveillance activities isprc.zessed and correlated by the force's staff personnelan-. a4 evaluated data, is constantly available to the=cc-Tander. A f.•rce also has maps and othar visual eis-

pleys (polar plots, for example) of the area of opera-ions-- or. portions of z.t -- on whicn ita own intelligence aswe'll as that obtained from higher echelons, frienilyfcr c, ard reconnaissance elements is plotted or recorded.As the co=amd level rises, the commander is more concern-dwith the overail picture, less with that obtained fron thesurveillance pattern of a single force. Thus, the evalu-ated data that a ship commander receives raflects the typeand level. of decisions that he is rcquired to make; th,'.data that the fleet comander gets, the type and le-el cfdecisions that he zart make.

In some nanual games, a comander gets the infont-Ationthat he neetdi by viewing a part of a replica of the area ofoperations: in most. by reports fro friendly forces andthe control group. A player is usually furnished maps arnplotting devices so that he, or his staff, can keep tracyof the location and movements of his own force or forcesas well as other forces of which he has knowledge.

9 4-5

-~ z- r 3 ai n fzi -4

t'* -e 11 e r t h e t leve~3 -S - .3:- s-a

3-L .-v .:N ý-vnr rorcesse. an t-' -

rlýýa z ýf !4:-'c ~r m.ats amid nther -,an-C't- a ree-ds -..-e piavers ndthe ',r. r- i

S syithois1. S 3t ...s bo ar s , fo -A or othe r b~a' v-es- at re f ariJs he. eesc th at e a ch --cambande r 0.- an as~s St a

I~~at~r rez'ec -f the status of his -Fcroe ard c~D e1r t n e nt i r f or -nat i ar Such records are hasi-Z Cz. the~ae-:ofl V-9' xitaat-ian !hat are 3pecifi-_d in the r,..des. 71hs. za c~aiof infwtni. the num~ber of perscrinel .- ilb ff !rduty be~ rec~rded; for a missile battal!.Ci, *:he n~hc-of avall~rhe launchers and the nw.ber and t-jqe z! fi'hM zt~tas off a sbip vdgh~t include its 'effect -er.ess* -,rftp~r ---:Pn ýýf life reaa~inur.q mazcim available spee,:! an~durnexprinie-d armunitibe. and fuel. The evatral gr~needAssimilar accounting devices to naintaIn a record o! al;forc~s in order to e--31uate interactions and to rirthe

de-cirt.-na an of the players, to kewp forces r-vcAn f!a-'tr tlý-x~n ve3ther, terrain. and daaage per,-z I c.-insure tIiat g-riP wit-hout amomition do not fire, et--.

Whil1e current ganies u.suelly use status boards aar::arm-a-ti.n fc~ws, in Ftme eazi~er gamee bookkeepi~ng prrzze-dureis w~ere ir crpor..ted into the design cf the pieces cr

~ uaed to represent Uhe forces. 7thts, in Liverrz-r.;ý ssSa-e the 9iLa of 3 i oece that was turned up indicate:d t~e*ffeeti,7enezz of the piece (foree). The pieCes of 7rtt;e-ris

jaw -.d slattd surfaca-ýs for record purposes rIn scc! e.,wsee rings were plaeid or, the mast of a ship mI0its ctirrent effectiveness.

A c_-, dter's deciuion to' awre a force, insti~tuti.soaich,, fire -*mapons. -Ieplenish. fuel- etc., m~ay be exptesse:i.Vorbal'01Y. on forns, or on tracing p&p-c-'r acetate overl-iy_ý.

4-6

A ~:x1 ~: ~ea, o:zperation~s may tDC haxndlod

7 Z". t 7e n tr~r I grcup. Tht p1'~ttinq of:> -: ure scales, protrectvrs,

delrie. If weapons

~~c~f c:.sfr ;ývalua-. IO3 prlCced-_res are~ ':TA ~e~S~C~i.OfS ~nd -ves, and fzomc

- - . *.s ~te~or.'.hits, &Ld d~amwar? es Cmt" O vl

~ i'( ~. ~ ~ S ,r3phs. and -CwOputinq forns

C. .te~ S.v ;Itn ~e~ sessne-it of interactions,- ~ ~ ~ : pr': e ~ date~d, and intelligence

t~s'..:e: . ~ r~~:seit-%er verbally zr cn foraz

za:t:.:: r are -4esigntec, to fu~rnish p-racticoble~f te ~~i~tiZf~Zhan~lbs normally avail-

:t:sm. ar,_aers, tc~ enable the control cqrtrzp tot -we-t z >v. to denY Player ccw=nicationS in-~r ~-: ~the :.....e.ý of tt~e qae. and tt, provide means

:c-:r~:~.:~r ~between the play'et- &.,-d the~ r:'o =anua -amei, theve funcltions arc acc~w-

rsonco-tats messengers, pnuai

S -e S r: ny Aro~ conbirationS of these Methods.

~ z:':~3.:'.', t ~ tattor~ requir~m~ts of th~e players

o xap And "three-nap* ;aas. ir. a

ltzz~es appear on a single la--Ie nap. ter-c: gam board. A tweo-n~ap ga~ allot's '..."M repre-

~-7 -- e area af orperations to each side. in tmhis:yp~:: ~ t-here is no snlec~let* delineat:on of

-he a.--a o: eratlons~ and all forces. The players on eachside Pvet~ iztUre cf tl,-ir respectivo sides. plus a

iis~v. f ~. e~zyfcrces of wbich they have kýe.Iedge.7The ntz ~~ oves frcc wap to map te correlate thejs~w>os~ti-rs and actlon~s of th~e players. Three-naap 4mes

'MLo -uree representation-s of the are-A of operations o"e

for e-tct side and4 a thi~ri th' e control group.

~~ader.*of the various f crces in a re3 a r:of Sprticus are usually physically separdte - cea!othst. Ilthmu'.h they may be able to see ad~acert fcrz:es.TV* b&SIC Corcepts Isave beenm dere1loped tu st-iIate Th_ýesecabditions. These might be callrjd the ýviewers' _nceptand th* *cowand center concept.- In O.he forme.'e :heplAvwrs are allowied to see a represeatation cf @tŽ'e treaoper*tlans. or portionls of it; in tb-i latter, t~he, gain t&-k~w1.d 9 . if the locatiorn and ccoosition of adjacen~t fcr-_esfanm 11*011igmene obtained frnm other players and flrom 6t-lecantrol group.

Onnral~ly speaking. two-sap and three--map gambes usethe vismers" concept, orw-.aW games, either th-e viewers'*the canowd ceniter conevpt, or a coobinat ion of bothi.

Using t~e viewers' concept in a one-msap game in wt,, i cthe am&a of operations is a I arge floor -type gwae board.thek &woe" Dsd their coantmers are separated. insofar as

Mob3. by screens, ad theo Plarars see-only thcse forezthft 'they w.oa1d normally see in theI real worId. f! the

Lei conducted on a sap. a1l1 giw board. or terraini Wal t~m the cciAtrcl qro covers or rem:ovewz the forcesthat the Bluen players, fbr irnstance. cannot see, and thepiayars move to the replica of the area of operat~ons zo

iath intoll iqeice and wAke their Moves.

ft a twio-sap clm. all. ceanders an the Blue side. f,-re 01 , hgv. wcf3sx tc the =W that r~epresents, fro= B*-.e sUm~5tof view, the arem of operations w!d locatic~ns of B

MW6Re forcme., Blue players sake their moves in the zres-ecof eac~ other. The rules 3f the came prescr ibe tý-.ematedor inawwar in which they may cranmi cate.

Tbo netJ~cd of conduicting the three-swp game is ifito that fat the. t:-~ except that after the Blue and Pe:!

plyinzs nad ~e tbeir mowes, these moves are t r arsfe rr :to the C'ontwoI grow~'s rprxesetation of the area cf opert--tiow sodaww threos on- are usuially riguired. one for*ad side acr a thitrd for the control group, these games a:ýoftena calle 1*2thr.-ro games.

4-e

r.te the ••an zenter concept is employed, force""-er s far as practicable -- a-e located in dif-

rzc•_s. The' :-ranszit the moveeents and employment

S".e._ •r-:es -c the c-cntrol group. The forces are novd

... .... tr~ . r...s s•i!uaticn of the area of operations.=v.•>itz'n-s ::r•-a :e •3 `nforation sent back to the cc-

-•- -'enters.

::he s zi1e-shin zr luel gare simulated a conflictSe:'Jee 1o bat:.eships. It was played at t'e Naval War

;•i e ".re :roc 1894 t- abc-t 1905. This was one Cof the:.z:7p`esz of aunxaa. gjames, and serves to illustrate some

f the basic nnua'_ siuuiation ccncepts.

In soee gnstances, the general. purpose of the duel

:=r:e was eduicat,.cnai; in others, analytical. In the fozur.

-'e specifiC purpose was to provide an officer -ith experi-in fightinq a single ship; in the latter. o . . . to

t est .-he ",alue of a 20 per cent superiority in speed, . .test the výxlue of a smaller turning circle, . . m etc.) 9

Ii T' area of cperatione was an unspecified area of the

sea. abcut three miles long9 by tworailes wide. It wes a".wc-sided game. and eplocyed rigid methods of evaluatior.. pcayers and one director were reqruired.

The rules of the game changed from time to tLme to

re!I ect the imvact of new weapone and of increased experi-•n wth cgaming techniques. Thus, torpedoes were intro-

,aced ,.nto the same in 1897, and new rules were needed for

_he-r sLnulation. The length of a move was originally one

:Ir.ute. This was later reduced to half that ti". After

an unutlia period of experir-entation, the rules covered

Abut six pages.

The duel q&-be was a one-map game and the playersremained in view of the model of the area of operations.

This .nodel was simply a plain or gridded piece of paper

stret:hed out on the top of a table. The scale was one

:nch to one hundred yards. A ship was represented by a

rectang•liar transparent stencil with a scaled cutout alonq

4-9

the longitudinal axis. The stencil had compass linesradiating fro the center of the ship, and sca'.es alonqthe edkjs. Other plotting equipment included 3 turningcard and a transparc.nt card for plottino, torpedoes.

The mechanlcs of the q were sJimle, but representa-tivo of manual games in general. Te dirictcr called for amve. The players wrote their decisions-on slips o. paperthich were wmitored by the dlrecto-. When the directorca]led for the move to be made, the players plotted theirformsw, drew in the outlines of the ships at the end of themo*, wrote down tl* move number, and drew short lines to£indicat* the guns that were being employed.

The life or "fightinq endurance" of a ship was measuredin points. T.e effects of gunfire were determir.ed by meas-uring the range between the firing ship and the target shipand referring to a tii'le or a ranqe wand- to find the. lossof life of the target in points. This figure and the cwu-latiwv los were recorded next to the move number so that accupleto history of the ge -- moves, guns employed, anddamqje ata-ned -- appeared directly on the paper whLchrupr emted the area of operations.

Men a player fired a torpedo, he plotted its coursean a torpedo card. The probability of a successful launch-Ing was 0.50, and a die was thrown to simulate the firing.If the mmching was successful, a hitwas scored if thetrack of thu target ship intercepted the plotted torpedotrack. A rmin w*s considered miccessful when the ranintswuck the side or stern of the enemy vessel. If the ram-i to*k plac while the ships wore on opsite courses,

or if the stern struck the stern, the result was ruled adrw. A ves•el successfully ring another was consideredsotionloss for two minutes or sore.

S1894 until the icaddic year of 1956-a"1 navaltactical gamins at the NVav War col"*. were conducted onthe q board. hese games were known by various n mes:feet tactical ga". board maneuve, tial maneuvers,mA boar gam. They were designed to simulato the ta':tical

4-10

t. n~'e ~~i.-;d~ua'. ships of opposing !leets.i f i . c tr .nspecified areas of open water.

e :.' a sc ,cIuded -Problems in Interior Water."bz•.; ~.Vn.s -_1.e, in . proximity to shore or out-

r a,-, q fe; e r e C har acterized by detailed rules that2.-rCx.<-ated cIoseLy the conditions of naval warfare, and

vt?- rel.atlvely !ar-e scale of the ship. and the board,,:rh• -the scale was smaller than either the duel or the

z-cas t a:tri1ery game. each individual Ship in a conflicItif prp.se,.ted bv a s.aled model. There were no &gre-

jateC uni.s. Hcwever. in computing the effects of gunfirein the :ater .7axes, a division of destroyers in closeformaticn was z-cnsidered as a single firing %mit and as a

'he flrst board games were relatively siple one-mapwzar-es r•ncerned chiefly with the interactions of opposing

fleet5 of battleships and cruisers. Moves represented twoani, -. e-half minutes of real time. The ges required fivepa:t .:.ipants: two fleet comimanders, a director or arbi-trator -who also acted as recorder. wAv tw movers. Some-tines an additional officer served as recorder. WVhen forts,destroyers, torpedo boats, and subarines were involved,additk.onal players were assigned to act as their c-meanders.If the conflict turned into a melee the qe was stopped,or additional players were assigned to act as the canazidersof the individual battleships and cruisersw and the game wasccrtinued under the rules of the duel %e. The ships inthe game were represented by model sailing vLssels with redhuils for one side, blue for the other. Different ccloredsa..hr were used to represent the various types of ships.A 2-reful record was kept of the positioas and status ofall ships at the end of each nove for subsequent study anddi cus lion.

,:er the years there were many variations in tht. boardgares. n~t•ercus changes in the rules. Rhny ingenious do71ces.4or.s. and methods were developed to facilitate the play.."-e.r basi- pattern,..h.wever, remained =changed.

4-i1

Wheor the gamaw board was transferred to the flc-:.portable screens were used to restrict the fields cf ":-ewOf the plWayrS to those portions of the area of operatxonsAat , - ~., approximately to real-world conditiots.f.e intrdduotion of submarines into the gme made it neceb-

f to Use c--comind centers for submaritte comeanders and toAwnt a supplementary plot for submarine operations. Thsp•lot evolved into a master plot, a portrayal of all activ-Ltles surface. subsurface, and air -- that occurred duri-ng

th play, and procedures were develcped to zollect and dis-p13y all the necessary information. Ar the nusber and rangeof aircraft increased, the master plot was supplemented bya separate air plt. With increases in the number of partic-Lpatini ftrz*s -- and, consequently, with the number ofplayers on the g~ae. board -- the rules were changed to per-sit the players to move their own forces. For ease in plot-tinq, moves were lengthened to three minutes. (A ship

Sing 20 knots travels 2,00C yards in three minutes; onemoving at 30 knots, 3,000 yards, and so on). Aircraftmoves, however, were called for separately, and wereusually one-half hour or more in length.

In the early days of naval war gaming a point syste=ms usead for assessing damage. Thus, around 1900. a

battleship was assigned a "life" or "fighting endurance-of 1000 points; an azored cruiser, 500 points: and aprotected cruiser. 170 points. If a ship received a nuwberof points equal to its fighting endurance, it was consideredr.o bave sunk, struck, or lost all its offensive capability.A battleehir that was hit by a torpedo lost 500 points andall of its spoed: other type ships were generally consideredswA. if a ship received a number of points equal to 30 perz*i* of its total fighting endurance, its offen._ive pouerwaa re&uced by one-half; a 60 per cent loss of life resultedin a .5 per cent loss of offensive power.

The offensive poer or capability of a battleship fcra twov and one-half mirute period, in terms of broadsidefirm* was expressed in points as a function of rangs. Table4-i illustrates the point values that were used around 1900.Th. point, values were based on the assuiption that the fullen undiw&nishmd broadside fire of a battleship would sinkor put out of action a target that was another and similar

4-12

S ,_T able 4-;

~-ie Iz~f1zc~ed by the Broedside Fire of a&Battleship

r~r.•; a ,w and One-half Minute Move

(ci.-rca 1900)

T: Y~rc3s Points Range irn Yards Points

-6" 480 1.465 120320 1ýElO 90

240 2,275 609- 200 2,91.2 402< 60 5,480 10

"::lesh.p irn !,fty ninutes (20 moves) at a range of 2,50fý_ ards. These values were changed from time to time toreflect i-mprovpements in ship construction, accuzacy of:ire. anc longer ranges. Generally, the tabular values..cere transferred to range wands so that .ne ntsmber of points) z!f daznage inflicted on a target could he read directly asra•nge measurents were taken.

V Th.- broadside fire of an armored cruiser was assumedte oe zne-'.alf that of a battleship: that of a protected.rutser, one-fourth. An -end-on" battery inflicted one-.alf the danage caused by broadside fire. Differences inthe position nf the target in relation to the firing ship-.ere rot considered. i.e., broadside and end-on targets-are assumed equal.

A a-An in a fort was considered equal to four gunsafloat. If a fort received 300 points during a move, itsfire for the succeeding move was reduced by one-half; ifit received 500 points, its guns wre silenced during thenext Dove.

The point system of assessing d*%age was superseded by. ne zn 4hich the life or *resisting power" of a ship wasexa-pessed in terms o' 12-irch hits. Thus. a dreadnoughtbattieship was assignel a lfe of tweanty 12-inch hits: a

j 4-13

pre-:rea;nceýqht b-It- etthp dife ztfaftce.:-rz:rttA 1a-xrwh hit was ss dtcý -.a v e wo -t h I.rs theeteivroe ef a 12-tnch" it~n,! -r. i r~-t 7

effoet ivene •s.

RI shIp. of c ne -- t:Y Pere considered -c -c7 1.r.. tre

#*ninobr and caliber of. guns. F-9r exam-ple. for;.zpurposes, all dreadnoufht battlesuIIpi carried ter .2-n•-I

qusi all predreadmouqht battleships, eight. The h-t prc; -

abilities for the na•,r caliber guns are shtmrr in Table 4-i.

Table 4-2

Hit Probbli:11es l cs Maajcr Caliber G02n5

ictrca 1916)

ntwqe Ran1e 12-in0hj i-vnchn -hni

.) I (Yds.)

1,000 1.00 .95 .85 -1,000 .1 .

2,0OW .95 .85 .60 12,000 .12 jGAC .OE

4,000 .68 .51 30 14,000 .0E I .O l .03

6,000 .38 .30 J,25 16,000 .03 .3251 .02

B,000 .25 .21 117 18,000 .02 .02 .00510,000 .17 .14 .12 20,000 .005

The reslts of several r-eplications of a duel-wate

between two ship* of the see type were used to illustratethe effects of can^c.e. The rules for the tactica gqaes

also ProvId for an -ever chance of moke interference

vS the funnel aomke and powdear gasses drift(ed) dr•zr the

fOn tion or between it and the enemy• ' and c one-sixth

obere of a spray penalty.

U 1922 a now and sore sophisticated system fors"ei d was ed., a system based on actuai

S actual ships. Knn as the "War College Fire

ttht syst:*M' it was desigTnd to lead to sound tactical

•IlusUis ihwn used in connaction vith gan. board problems.i t fuinsh "a mane of mkxq stetAntially accurate rel-

t&in atroegtb ooariscr'. of ships ad forces' as i llus-

ttted t F- g•u* 4-1 and Table 4-3. As far as was kn-r.n,

4-14

4 Ores" baft *a. soa~ r aOw

4-15Ria.

I I

-

- I

- - •.o I

IiI I f*

I i •I -

*q+'' ;. I

t hv P.a t e t 0 7;,' *hý relat~ve- - ;~.l1 Va:. exrIr cludinq, plartes. boobs. tor-~

- -i ~ ~-em; target~s v~rder vaying

-e ~ color cls Sutfor~ -~~"~ e o:- oritain, Orange for Iapan~,

~~SC _n.~-sc Ba3e'd Ot. studies --f Inaval:ý~e a r teists. etc,. ,ail the Ships

~et~ ~e n~lyZed avtl reSPeCt tc t,ýM-t -nesS 7 rT~ belts , arA othar pert inent factors,*-lass 3!, Ships. was assxq~ned a life valae

.7 ~ . .- :Ž>e f2 our-teen-ku~ ic itz ht tLa-. ý Le~eý t rne-ess-iry to sink'it. Thus, the Blue;srSanr -- ran-ic, wa given a life of ... be-

~ r rdfive (14-inz-h) penetratilve hits or t'vice as-~ ".~: -~etr:tsve 2 The eftet of shells of lesser

_r'-:er za~it-er were exmressod r. bteuis of 14-inoh 'hits.

?~: c~ec~tables w-re prepared for eac-h type_ of--rzus each type. of target (o~r cltss of taxrjet-s).

t~bes is%-ed as a fuinc-tior. of range, target engle**,-p-* 9sýt ~.kite, plane-), the' expected per cent

-::rCe ie for a s ino, Ie -sun firing for- the lenqgths5 1' C: I v -- ef.ofor th ree minixtes The lostes uvre

cr exctrapoatedd frca the resilts of target practicc-n arr- r v-er-tcns dies. and sudi factors a~s rate-- of

arn. -o~s f impact Cf 'hits were carefu~lly considered.f -ertainr ranges it was cal-cu1~ted that a hit would

'~:~M ilCacII-ess, 'The San Francisco Story,- U.S._XavalProcee-li.29, No*.eiber 1958~. p. 35.

''Tl'-e :arýr~et anQie -was defin-ed as the ange between, the_f fire arx- the keel .ime of the, tatget slhip. A

* '~e_-'ber of target arrgles wete recoqnize~d -- forex a--r Ie 9C:. 4 a-nd 0 d1eg iee3 --- and ang les w--remeas,;rez- tc the nearest of these values.

) 4- 17

t a . ge• t.; At t It er r ne -3

I- . .... t •rrt Vas based S>:r.* e >, ":-e•b, !!t . .. ... ,J .- e .6"' i~T.e r I): f r.nI r; it de •e J 7- .e r . A

th Ins -cinc .no c:-nsiJeratio. •n oas g'_ven t,, any lanage -'atST- • vehlz½ -•h: :.have s'.stai.ned. -Hec-e, the .z-r.-i

IIf: c ageý sw 5-ze guns of a f _r. h, .hr,2.. .. .. . . -L • .: e :Ire e ec . n

_he finA! --. e efAec*: was the nornal &a are t -eamr• M fa!:tzr or .-.u t ier. if there were no leý.-:ations!r-? the ss~ed normal conditions, the valIe _- M -was 1.lt• value -'as reduced bv O.1lO for each ten pe, _-e±nt al-sve-4ater 3ace or loss of effect.veness to the fs-n iv.

W was also reduced during the first ýw,-e in whi:-h the7uZ-s -w-ere fired, whet. the fire •-ms S'-_-.. "r• _ne taraet"t- arno-her, wh en a s h ip waP hi 10- & týo r;e"o ,m -e

f .he aea -was rough or . and so on, for ai':I c, f thne"-ario-.s condtions that a'fected adverse!,ý the effects cz

Jm-fire on a target. Fractional values were adde-. ta 'M'",+,en the firing ship was not under fire, and vhen the: target-as s.-hc.uetted during twilight 'ours.

Danage to ships was classIfied as above-dater and13-iow-vater: total damage, as the sun of the t%. At•'ce•-"-.at.er damage degraded the offensive capability of a shipin Jirect pr-:portion to the damage sustained. The maxwispeed of a ship was reduced according to the amount oftUnder-water dasage received plus an additiona! amount fzrabove-water d~ac-ae in excess of 30 per cent. A loss ofspecific shipboard equipment was correlated with danage.This inforration, together with losses in gunf ire effez-tiveness and speed, were printed trn the damage repcrts that

*If the line of fire was within 30 degrees of the bawcr etern, cnrly bow or stern gruns could be hrought to bear.otherwi6.e. a~l cuns of the broadside coul& be fired a- thetarget,

4.;

-~7c~;-ejter caclh move was evalvated.7--c-r~berca u qe thet r

-~ ;-21s-; a--hat this sleant i.r terms of- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ic _P.-~-u~cain,~''~teliigeTnce

_7 5 E e S~ ~ ýIr -aa ere-caae f rcma

ýý: :--!!& te nix-be- =n4 ty-i. -'fr taA-: res. ;r c-raftit fraL t ",e qufre -f

wr r at --Cale1 'tna~ ire azni-s~. :a:;.a:f:..-e ~r:represented.. the ~tarrf

ce sttr27ver ter vessels were assigned stard4-_=!> rs -r--pc rt i n to their antiaircraft~ r' ~tlat, of a destro~er. The rnuber

I rt ixsthat acAlJ. be exvpected to oppose anas he s- .: f the "ire units of t'he shios whichire a .e r -Iid. These ships were deltervined

77 a 3n .I. Zlirecti.on of attack. 1-f the latterezfe. ec vas Jeterrmdne-d by rollingt a single

d I I ir.c l,-_n uko.r trrn e up b O eres

- a .;.ixtber o f t anda-rd Afire units apposing the- L -I*a -nrt 'tz effp~ctive f ire un its (EF-7) by uxse

-: . :~... c ~t-.a mrzlvalue of I. ThMe valt-e of the.. :rc:'ease-5 or decreased by an. &msmnt that-~~ :~r~i cf thenuzmerical values that were

-Z3rTditic%5- that night prevail j-ust prior to and-7e a 1 3ttac-z. Th1us, if the srxrface force was under

~ f),t r .f-<2 was specified, if the ai rcrft was::ra torpedo attack, a factor of 0.6. Provided

-es tu~-s factors adequately described the conditionsthe algebbraic sun would be 0.4f and the ,alue

-: : ~ er 'A4 The n,-ber of effective fire units,~-I d 1~>>± e 1.4 ti-nes the total nuimber of fire unlits

_e-s entirc.1 with the number of effective firei--'i th aweW ircraft in the atta~k. and the

-f planes ý!estroye-d prior to attaining the attackingn,-:-w .3 s r-ead ou.Iff dif ferent types of' aircraft took

_n-----rail~, Icsses to cach type %?are apportioned in!&.-:e w;.:-h 10eir relative strength.. Losses to aircraft;: -etirezerlt were assr.me-d to be a fixed per cent of the

TheW nmber of hits obt-int-i by the sigcraft was t-ase-dastrevt *it*, tYPe and altitude of attack, an~d ~~e r -_-fw42~ raleAsed. This niuber --as modifivd in acrtrdance

*4tb tba Op~ee( antd evasive t~actics of the target.Aw-taticwm curves-shov*4d '.eether :)r nct the

U60 pentrativq or ncn-ptn.trative, anid tablet Ind'4-1te± *-'ep"ee nt of life lost. per p*!netrative hit or n-3-pentr Nt

bit for eah of the target types.

The pwoew3uros that were e~loyed in boar-i gwe !r±ýthe tine the qam was trinsterred to the floor ~lthe

-t-ia'te Post-Wo~rld war 11 period are illustra~ted 'best zet brief decription of a qem conducted in the 'Prinale Ha''

9rtm. on this board, the scale usually iuse-! w'as sixind~as to 1.000 Yards. individual surfact forces wmere

re~entdby mode ships -- carriers, battleships, t~attleextlshers. beavy and light cruaimers. and aestroyers --cMittructel tc the scale of the board. Aircrtft were rep-2~te4 by paper cwatouts of planes. 19Mane on stickcs

atOowdiaq to altitiade. Small black screams indiCated smzkeSctess.Units that were out of sight of each cther ---ere

sp sr-ted by curtains or portable screens. Surface fcrý-eoa~me-sopierated fro tbe gaes board. Subsur facr and

air F4 P er were assign"drc wa;- f*%= the game riccm,but oian3ecetd to It by phones and psreuatic tubes.

Tote rules of the gam were published mWodr one cov-eradwarisepatitleds Meq Rules an es--f~r Aircra f t

Nopsr. "lte5nve or.Tey vfte supported azd~sioplaeted by data Nrrdshod in such ether publiationisas thme ZIA* £ffot abe M&xc irAft- 0-60f Assesspwat Tab 1,&s.fdwayiptiOcls of the capabilities of ships and aircraft, andge on. The rules %wre divided irto ten S~ct ions coveri"r,the imeral description of the qame speM and loqi iti ci'eI.., coftact rules. cmýication rules. a~nd it-. on. About

twoty foms war* mopoyed ramiqi# fro airc raft casualty,tige to the vopires' commiic at ion reowrds.

2%0 00strol qrom included the director. move. deafge,aL. and nmgmýications woires mid thoir assistant*.- Iihi-

am ut plottinq pereasreel. anti a histevriAm. Their dutieswere dotiz~ed in the a f the gam.

4-2C.

• j.:t:';-r ±'ed tcr -ne, or, if he thoulght :iothin- ....appe, r severa moves. The players filled

a- A"-d cmiu r. "r-rmi w!-'T:h were checked b-y the con Iro* A 'e sig~nal ý ake nove I- (or, -Make moves 1., 2,

3 , the P.-avers xocr'pding surface forces ad-0ý t~h game boavrd and drew. in the tracks

f e a board sent in tracitqs

~- *" '.'id the pnemaatilc tubes. The'11 J-rr sxurfa,-e ai , rAl susrfc --

-~~- Te e Iboard -ýnd -frcu the fliasies to thes ... t-rpedoes were plotted on the

>.:nc~ ~ 'erh~f~dfror, both the wiaster plote q boar. . .. ,he rce resulted in additional

.• :" oir-hc i-`th, ct each other, the screens wore

r-% the . ;i; s -'r. the board, upire measured rangesar-.-c4 -r-et arngles, and then cowputed the qwfire danaqe|tra •r~ed during the rmove. Damage frw. torpedoes. mineos,box s and aerial torpedoes was assesd and added to that

fr'-•f-o gunfire. Aircraft losses fro surface weaponsand- '.et :a. ccibat were =ox:nited.

"We-. a-:" damage had beer, assessed and all int-i.LAigene-

~x~se~w- e I~rector an-votrnced the next move.

:2arc I ,.ia'es were played "isually for a part of the day.Af~er r day's play the £i'ul poitions of all forceA.Per! -rinsferre! t: a new master plot for use on the fol-:z•-~---- av. Then the essential irfonmation and tracks fro

zd aster plct were fitted, with the aid of a panto-graph, _t- a standardied sheet of drawinM paper. This wasph'{:4-ý-nhed and a Slide prodvced for use during the cri-'A ler Wihen the gae was finished, all the drawirqs were

"-rv; together toSer'e as a graphical history of the qmu.-:luded wztY the histo-y were compariuons of the relatie

ef.e-ti-.'eness of opposing fieets and of d&maqe sustainedjur.n-4 ý:he game. (Figure 4-1. Table 4-3).

}• about 195C until the installation of the PWa--a.a Wa: -O-alege board qines were conducted in accordance

-1.h the cwand center concept. The players ware statioeds !f~i~es around the building and tramnitted their de*isicxs

4-21

9' Wc1i� NIPRODUcIULE

.�4

( bd V�

�g-3 �

: .~. 'e: ~& t e !:rtiz-r to the boa~rd plotters~~~ az e~e 1 > oard, that is, tney xaoved

r'. r tre 'ý t tri c-' s. Arraws were plxce(6 near*n f4., trn~t :'fre, an. the tr c..s of t rpedoes

b- aL' ard. ih e umpires evaluiated con-~ e r1e h e re,3ilts, 4M~ the data were

t t~ ~.i~Fs.The p layers maintained their- v>~te'~t~ r~> -. f~ the~ statue of their COM

~§ mere '-cressivtly sinplifiod.-. . ~2 '.re ~ e~lsor.s. First,ltess curri.'>

Wa~s'.1 3vi a', f~ -:r w-a r 9 aning. Secondly, at this

~-~s peie z ~-~~zeth't- analyt2ical rather than the*u~1~ Aspe-tý' -f *""e aames. Finally, uncc~plicated

-iss.S-ssr--t 7-o-c-Is ;peee -_:, the -j- arid provided more

-- -tnozk -. r emplc-yedi to simplify the daaaqce&~~e. c-h T ,i .- he ntAber of fire effect tables

.~s ~e~ . ~p~:targets into frever classes. VWe~ v'~ c~ ~i~ -'fthe 10, factor was shortened.4! arage *aix fa.-tors were introd&iced. Thus.

o r .n ce t te _-oputed dasaqe was due to noon-,)entratr ive hits arnd azr~runt-_d t'o, say, 20 por cint a

_A inartere-4 arn-l :ai that may havr.Ž b~ee greatere~s ha~Tha ~mt was read out, 1ýa.t vas the lanaaq

;a 1. aqses5sei f.-r nh c~ve. If the bits were penetra-, -. anc sr.,n~z: table was use~d.

Kanua1 Jaa-ze czm.putern, :n. the form o! circular slide~ were l1so tc fo ciltate dasage Computationl.

71iese -ere nase&' on earlier fire effect tables, but than-1i~r~tspezify wheth-er the dam~age was due to punetrativ4n

jr ~.--nPenetrati.,re ti'R Chance damage tables. conse-1uent'., were nect -. 25*!,J. Fiaever, chance sinkings were20r-slder.ed. Wben a shiz lost 60 per cent of its *ffectivv-ness. its i -f sinking was ono-third. and thioprc-baý_:ilty was in.creased by ore-sixth for each additicna3.A10 per ;,ent. damage received. A reaular die -was used as aChance device. In com~putingq -4&aqe. th. value uf the xfactor was baý;ed s-olely -) tlhe offectiven@ss of the firirq

fttof the po-t-Sourld war rX ganies were played forth* etiXe w0rkinj Liy tttle or no attetept ~vas -m~ade to

r~rd gtqbieally the nowes for future refere-Aces, o&r toPtloarnt ctr'el~y edited dlrairgqs and slides illustrat~.rgthe P109Ar Of the play In general, critiq~ues were :.-on-dted a shozrt time after the la3t move, and the tracks orft 9t board were* used in lieu of slides.

This manual war gam "a~ developed by the Researcb and~ve~pi.RtD~atmit of tbe Rlectric Bolot Division under

%^0Stact with tho office of Naval Research. *Through ttis( 3Ct*c, reoeartc asscistance is Prov'i6*0 tv Su~bmw r im

D.e"l00ftt froiqp ?"o in support Of it~ anI c-! develo'pingm- actIcs for the submiarine MW~ s~issi~o.a -

Zattially, the gemmra~l purposie af the qae wae analyt-Ica -to' ijieatiqate the Paramete ra of wsboar ine tact ics.

IM bas aseo beei employed as a trainiuq ~Sevice. -Tn. this(~Ct~fit is particularly useful for traintingj the reserve

officer wbo ssl~om has an oprtvmity to exercise at sea.tt OAbLes bin to becom fmiliar with tactical problemsmd to practice solvinm tbom. Similarly, a comandIing

officer ca pC*#fte hlM..f, at least an the theoreticallwmni, for an operation before he embarks or.in 13

The ovkwarin. q~m is a two-sidda closed game. itsimulatmp a conflict situation in wbich the suslmarines ofam sidet are attemting to penektrate a harrier maintainedby the wt~mrime of the orppoig siLde. Each of the playors

~mprwe1t a submziai. captain. 7he area of operations is- -& Hoq~t d oc an a~. 100 nautical miles bry 10C nautica:"*

aLi~a. ThM rigid method of evaluation is eml oyod.

Vaually, thar* are~ fivs playetrs: t~wo caimnd trans-

i~tU I uowiftw three barr ier submrine*. Two of the

*Wzmtri goat tax dew loped a qomlnq facility for--- AL4j4U gw- bid, Coieirno MMMil and Ar'alog ccwz tor

•::-:, s• ad t.er ncvewents are restricted by tk" "Ie*. -)_ r-~:_. Their :ah is to detect the trarnitioq subs

ad to) recto: the third barrier suba•mriae, a nucleAr beat(SSN) i;.- for a k >I.I The mission of the tranlsitors is to

pene-ratc the Lhrr:e:. The gane ends when tCe tranlsitifgsu~3r.:-=•e5- ac~lc h thl:r mission, or the barrier sub--•arir• fulfiVl :hez~rq that is, they deteý7t and destroythe venetratcrs.

The area cff '-jpera--lons is cepresented by a qt.Idded!hart or game board urh-.ch is divided into 20 by 20 largesquazes, five m-i les or a side. These are subdivided into1Ot s~alier ,S00CC-yard sq,,ares.* moves are qemerally 7.5unutes irn lengqth. A t,-t making four knots travels oie-half mile, or one square ir one move; one movi-ag at eightkncts, two sq'jares, etc

Certain assujnpt.ions and restrictions are made in order.o siMPlify gaming ;rcce.>ires. Thus, it is assuM tfatpassive sonar .s :¶ cvntinuous use by all forces, and thatthtv SSK positions are constantly covered. SSW's May us*speeds of 0, 4, 8, 12, 16 or 20 knots only, transitors, 0

r 4 knots. Sonar om-mmuication rangs are indicated bysquares rather thar circles-

The rv,1es of the gm~e are divided into four parts.One part is a general deRcriptior of the gane. The otherparts are: rules: for the -nteol qroap, rules for thebarrier subtarinen, and ruies for the transiting subsarij!S.The players are presented with, the gqneral description andthe procedures for their respective roles. The rules itt-elude comainication, detection, and weapons data. the lattertvc ir the form of prv)babx Iities. The data and/or the rulescan be changed '__ . . and the effecl 1 of such -hanqes =n theout-coce of the gaxM? . . . observed.

mThe Naval War Coilege g•m boards were griddod ina mimilar fashion.

4-25

T-hte gea is a onle-za qa",, t~jz .4s t'Oe are,- o!Ltions is simulated v~y -he control group~s qrid, z-OrPl~t. Bach -slayor h~.s a chart of the are~ o opertio~nsfrplotting his own-osition, ar~d, uwhen Dossibie.

th* other ships' positi--ns.,

The players are physically isolated fran each othe:.rSeadk-pom.nred pfronev and a cont rol-cjrup-o-pe rate%-.'tc.:.device permjit commmications betweenn the players and :t)ý

Ocaltrol qroap and, when. the rules iiizs, nitcred c~~Cations between play~rs. The fecrces on the oýontro3. 4r-owaetar chart, irv represented by sy-abols: their tracks, h.lines. These ;5ymkols reflect the state of the subm~arzineat any time during the cium. For exr-.'ple, a cross say'ladicate a wxorke."ing boat; a small opern :ircle, a, suý>-

in.2t sumiarte, etc. Asterisks show where a boat wasfettctod; ar arrow, the source ---f a torz~edo. Thus, the

oster plot,~ b~e used directly for the -post -.no .*t=

discusx~l', or co&itique as we'Al as for a history,. of th e a -e

Ir~teractions are evaluated by the 'controll gZro'.; inacmc-idenee with the rules of thze gam. TebleE prov.idc :I prb&~Ž::lii~sof datuections and 'hit's at vario.us .-ranes -

table of rindcm rntkers provides the -yes'ý or -s'--OCowmications are alloved between suhm-arines at spec.fie-

ranoeand PoAr well-de!fined conditicns. r'or exa=-le,*Wo '7*iearittee are at per iscoW- depth, they may com=uni -a-at 4C wilev cr less. -One mve is required to surfazilec===Lcat~eLe *c--ond move is required to ret'urn to ise

inq &ptb.alJ- Th-us the game, like many others, io pr-rt~lt.probabillistic, partly determiinistic.

Prior to the game, the players are iariefed or. th-sqmaeraI ptuose and aj~licable rules and are p rov ~ded .:

eberts and plotting tools. in accoz ace with tT1; rules,the in~itial positions of the forces are selectee' in pa~rtI-y chane.. in part by the decisions of thep'~s ForLtttancea one transitor is assigned a chance pvrsit ior. nearthe wtrthirn .dq* of ttw chart; the second w..; p*c~k arn';pwoitloc -- within stated linits -- that he -wishes. ini~t,.-batt*ry life is handled in a similar tash.4,jn. one tast'bas a random cho ice o f any nanbr betweer 1 aA- 4 4. Ti

* .representa the rnmbr of noiirs of hattery

4-26

- ~ ~are 52C zxr ':ersti ~ ~ 7 -. e second transito.9

-. z . ... . C t: G initiai battery

W- a..- - ar ar -.ith the curpose and- -- o.-

.... .- .. ,-ct ten minures to dis-.....- ai rpracedures. The i> avers

s !-~ac enter:;_ an d the-:-sz :-'e. Each player plots the

:~-.-n : his ruct. By meaz2u of sound-S.. . e speed and the coordina-es

- "- - 't .•. c : *. ...... the acve. He states if he

e -.rface, 5uberaed, or at snorkelJe a,•::! wheter usinc sonar, radar, oz radio.

r. - e sres t:zr does the mve, be indi-.ates the-'-e !ifrzn: ai 7> czrd•:ates of a target area.

-.. - res I-:z-r the =cves and intentions of thei.. Ei- -9 eva ate -anta3ts and torpedo firings, and notify

avers - he - f any. if a torpedo isf:-ecf an .o hit s ohtaine-i, the umpire tells the player

.. :. zthe torpei iansume to be fivei •'V es a psed

exaqj:na". .2rd Systems.

:he ume bcards ise± in the ganes that have been.cJescr be enr*cved square gri. patterns. WI.en this gridsyste-7 iE used fcar •eneralize~d gaaes in which the forcesare Der-ztted tc mve on-y from one square to an adjacentsquare, a =ar-e y c-:cve in any one of eight directions.

.---ev~r, ; it rves d:a-onal',-, it roverz about 1.4 tiw-.sthe dis:arze that : .t es when it moves vertically or:,-,rIz cntaU;. Hexagonal grid patterns, on the other hand,e•qa-ze the _erm.Vth :f n-.ves betwe'3n adjacent hexagcns,Djt- restrict the Possible directions cf =ovensent to six.

The hexagonal grzi syste•• has not beenr used in Nava-War -qe games, but has been employed by the RAbM

S.r ,and --ther ;i activities.

Nav._al War Cot e2ge Thýart _-aez.

P rie-r to th e zs t-wcr -~ wtra s t r ae:7e- 2,

at: the Revs1 war .Aeewer-e s.,rnoerned chief>-'. :: nava._c-"aiqns. These gmrss-A lte the strateg:2_ e_-: oc-vn e2nof qiawal forcves rat-her the:; th detailed tc2s& abattles. WVIr the ma-ir bodi;es ulsdto en.-aqe =z arc-Ms endedw, or the forzcei were :r-ansft:rred tc the wr~etcr

an at~ti~igeae was played. In. aci arne sen'..zrstudents coiannded the d±Tisicrns and squadrrn.-s .. r hstratejic~ai and tactical pl ays- iunior students ttr~e±Bdividu&.l. ships during. th.e detali-ed :,lay.

Strategic aames e=-braced eaiv';la-rge areas foperation., maintly defi..nite s'cean. arece and. n_-astal -re~giz-nsiz the lowm and middle lIatztudeE. They were ze-nduac+e}- :;-medium or small scale Mercator charts. Thtis typTeufp-jection. was normally used by ni!val officerse zo7r navjn::otlnand plianni-ng, and was tk.e kind of chart most rea-.2ŽIv ava:able. it 'was sufficiently a.cctrate fo-r the -re-gions oýf theworld in Ax&i& the gones were played, and possemsse-d theUseful PrC rty of represent inq any con~stant couarse _-,I0wwdr~ by a straight line. For the gam. scales er;>':yefd.the horizontal parallels of latitude and the verti calmeridians of longitude provided a conv*enient -. !anl iiargrid systam. and eliminated the need fror a came board1 net-work. Strategic gams be-came known as chart games or Chartmatneuvers * Thgetheur with, board games. they ccar respo'nde¼5 tswhat we&t knpon elAse-where as naep games.

Chart gamsz wor basically one-sap games, w-ith thecaotrc #'e. are- smap set-ving as a replica of the area :,-±opt.rat ions. Vit~h the exceptior-r of scouting eIeZn% h

fc~ces~mr aqre~etc.Forces were reprnsent-ei b:" Eyn&>7,:.

22e kinds of srymbols and. track lines that were us&4 werespnc iftied in the rifles of the gaMe. Fuel capacity andexpendtures and :cther- p'anniac- data were inc-luded withthe rules or- issvzad separately. Rules for detections and

ecarncations -ý-ers the sane as for tactical ;anes. Thedinvctor was allowed to select weather condi~tic-n_ý, but therans !loteo that the .simp.est methood was to use the actuaMlwi-ether conditinns prevailing at tie College.

4 - 28

.. yser±s v:'eua:7- -n , a

-. ask-. S_' I-I

-~~i e -n ~ xr '-

4- -" - .~aia- t ts e

-- -- s -n cfie s. ne tr- t

-rc- Th e .tr t e MC~d'enCt.

=vizes z-orrelated t't cxeet

-a-s -a rh-ana the

- tttz :;:e Dr foroes or. either rt-~u~etr ar re t- .the tz* ofA te -rter-

;r aae2 rel 11 Enc'e transaitte5 t- tlhe ~a-p 13 ~ sthr rade any modificaticrns to the-r

- les~e an r<tfei the cont-r-A.1;opos -. raa~radvanczed the gare týr t

Jner ir: r ztl it was time fcor th-e nar:T

tZ ?:7 2e:!7ar at the r...a,, 1 =oss~g

f :7- t- tbe:- reason -- fwishetd

_E rc':e, he :':zzdthe control arocro. TY -e CnPetOc$&ta:e to The tim- -If t-he przpaose cha~nge, a

-t ~v ofZc :.*q 4jli'nq, the results of !zarqmerg%.tszetve: etac-*ed sazadrc-ns wire doctdiod by thefolw;

to:i e-:c eva~xat_ýOne. If two forces wit-) re'A. t:I;est.r-v-nt!xs o:f "tz rn~a~od. th. inferior force was removed

fr -- he game. Whasn the o&Is were 3 to 2, the lesser for.ce*cst -nt--haA t~s st-reng-th. With, od4s of 4 to 3 hsurperszr for:. defe*ated Wite adnrnry. but was ocr.,.s.-dered

ntr-wApabl cft =arimq zTe &-evlatg ofertion leuring ora~aipnber -f carytn gam.t The tarWt oafton tIA *urxn the a

4-29

1Maqineuit wag determined by th,.-mirs -!he rujesc_&v~riwq actieve~ ,btwe 'Lesser .mito and5 soouts read:*'It brwOrvd Vressel~s COe iwithir. 2.CO00 yardi, oýr _inam~creýwit!i;Al 4.3WO yarlt,. of each other, aui'd ropairn wýthin -these

ttILstanc". for ucrcc: tham an hau~r. t~he iction _; b e d!e-7J-ds:at the aptior of the _,;Vre, bry tke rlti~ve -r.vwber :-,f pclr'ýtat. which each vesaut, is Thse fiqtiniq va~iaes ofthe varictis - pm v*%- shzxllr to. those ,hcr.,' in, Tishe 4-4.

!Tabl 4-4:

ikrw1red YALJi9-af ALf

C~r~s~s econd c~lass

o f 2 (day&M-Ioa et nr)."a m'w6 d

'kout ffashL

ý'Itk of~~ fir..Ofz -- 4W' h

tMOM~ ~atko of the lif vaa fohWC -rmo

IAUs N ftfi ew xtt fpit

:3.~eor by tAh~e free

Cc~ .~e~e az37t- gaming

- K ~ by ea.:! t'he:z :a~: ~nd S ýt a f Na valI

N~ r r-~- e- -,-o eet, t~heir own

7' !E- a t- ý the resulting~- ~~e- ~rin, the f-llovin-4

n--- - re fcIlte -d 1--vbe A

-~ ~r:-~ct:::~-~t~&fir,&! phase c~f the last-s;:e-r3tions plroble zDf the

2: ~~- Green versus Wh-te -

7a-. ;:1ý7W'<cn and cautined c=eratirnsC E- n -- e ra na r-2 :n5.

-:,-ýe r e dv ided intc, three groups:~ ff ~~Ind, a S=3~ Prob2.'e InzelI i -

-4 ý :33: r :irr tvoc grrops prep-red the cpeza--:3L:s fcr t!hier respet2 tve sides. During the real-

!nt 5ar repre~sen~ted '-y th: s pjl_,anning phase, the twt,;5n aff E- I .th I ?- the -restrictio~ns imposed by:~e. hzet:-:~ ~r'. 6.aher '<-'a&qu&rt-terz, order certain

:t:c~ -t, ~ : reccr~naissanc-t flights, submnarine~ The Aebrs -of the Problem Intelligence Cen-

':P7re and rei:%rcAed vsi~h for-ce movmnnts ane. intel-* e e3z:1ti--ies, arAý f!rnished information t-hat was

-'7'-!e 3'.- I Cc~: Zu r se Depar tom t wa s e 9tab1i 9h ed i nm~ ~pae.e~~t-cnducts an an..Lial covirse for approx-

t~'et'~!iveser nt av&l officers of allied nations,

Ap~~ t'he nwma! ý:f,6 the Navil Waxrfare Depart-aent-~r-4 arni Staff Departient were changed t,-- rchool of

'ax3.War fare a~r; zvo: Naval Comand and S taf f respec-

effor.a, xrA that atimulated decision: ; f:rweid the

pUXPOSe of t?-e game. Tnm prohblec director acte-d as tt-".

r xt qigher CMwaand for both sides, and r--.< ed inc Y

?13yar's reaties ts for ad ditiona forces a:•5 -

Wh". the plans for both sides we-re prepared, m-mes-4tdn~ts fro each planning staff and '-he nenbrs :f t'heProblen Intelligence Center were assigned to the cntrzxrroup. (TTheir detailed k.noIledge of c-,ncepts. p aurs, s flprgme activities greatly facilitated the con-duzt of thegamm.) The remaining students in the planning staffs weereorjtnized to play the gae.

The cantrol group was headed by a director and -assistAts, oan resmpnsible for White. one for Green. CO:nermjrs were organ4izd Uinto four tumirirg te-ms: naval. iir.land, and lnqistics: and an adftniutrative sectc.rn. Thenaval, air. axd land tosams ewvahated interactions in the'.repsctiwe spbzers of interest, prepared intelligence andcoperational smawries, recorded the history of each -cvefrca their viue.•!ints. a•• noted any les.sons revealed byto 9rme. Tho logistics tea vonitored constraints i sby logistic factors. and recorded the effects of iegist.I

oideratioc=s' wx the decisions and actions of ppos~in-

Te a•dinistrative secti received the intelligenceSoperational swariee, the histories, and the -lesscr-leayn . ft the four Miring tm. Its members eiinr-

nasted ftpl estiky. and resolved diser epan. *&'cs. They pre -nd distibuted consolidated operaticnai

s intelligence sonies to the players, and maintaineda histor of thoe o a a a record, of the lessons that It:

pla L. "Iseo 0. Ibis r a a record of the e s -Strfftc btwe player ataffs and between tŽ e players

Sthe control gr Ia. In addition. scme of its menbersaed • d th 1vn•f iO• on the large maps that were dis-

played as appropriate.

h was a three-nap gin- The auditori=z of Sinsu 1111 %m d as th room. Three identical large mapsof the area of operations were fastened to the sl iding

4-32

.~>.cr~-,one eaz--

- - -~~~ - t i ipanits. .e :z er- -. ~ -~:~'ere-t roors 1r

-raanizatic-s.

7, - n the canerow an4 the

- n-::~: 2r2ate -xxrxtanders briefed- -rcep-F and plans. ""hen the

- - ~ and"- the White side-r*-ý ---. 'ýn -Cnc-'-~t and

- vs rc-:cedthe iecr.ith he- --. d'terii-ine the lengt!' &f t!'

7 a { annc-r'nced, the player! indicated- :>~: :ro-es on the papr mans ind on the

-. ~_-r s5 ~Ž ent to the ct. :<- . he:~ s e ~? ete~frm an, overhead pro-ectcr,

the ats cf -he respectil.e qides.--- ~ t-.e gare Zow and each farce

:7 sz e er fh x s staff±, described his .rten -7iu-- t- h -%er :th-e large map s h-vwi~ Gre er.s

7 t:: S -W t a Ss aii :1-ed. Afte~r the briefina~~-a _Je ret rn, t- its rocu and the White siue

- -~ ::- ;7e rzc<7 a-d -reiented cs ase.

ýay;n-; the paper maps o-ver ec3 h othner.-- e 9e-e the dn;ess of th.,e :)lame, the --ea.-s

ec :t :e_ - att-_.!ted to arriv-e a- c:red~ttable

a s- e~ -- ~ ~ r-., hbest t-he objectives o-f the zaz

I~- th ~Ie evaluaticns, the tracks anu; actujal* -- th f:rces at, t.he end of the nvave were toltted

:rz :ruzs aD. intelligence and :ope~ratinnala r ii e F e p repar,-: and 4-istributed. The for7--er ~i

-~ -' -ticnof n~vforces and activities: the~---.-s:de :o-sses a~dl gains, and the situation as it

S t he endA of e nove. Upon receipt of thIe slin---hes ýIayers mzade a neu estimate ofT th. P siJtu a ticn

7rep-'ared for the next -nve. TLhe game cycle lbeqan again.

Th! ;s That,---- - ;a.re "asas jdapted3 to ci , cn ".hýe :.&.nd corAduCte__4 ý-. th'at s 1=.; .atr- -*not il" " •.-."

a new zlasning exer-ise replazed the operat:2rns Drc1ier- which --he ga.-m-e- .saed i°s plannr• ... ,-d

-r earte -t!: nd ew- g ar- cs, each a "fere-.-re opera- port Cf this an.-. c ,

TIhe S-c.hozA of Navaa Warfare Strategic 3a•re

-s gaze ab1,.1ates Z. g obal poll,, ca,-- _ .trr:envi "?-hOmh t'-oc na4-r -onoers, Blue ar- P'~le

are attenpting t: "=lenent and suppor t c'ni":.-tur•national airs aand >oclicie:. It "-s a two-side: e4ucaticna"game with the emphasis on dezision-making at the nationa!level. The players represent the heads of the t"c :cvern-ments, key cabinet posts, and high-echelon =ilitar-: ;oo-sianders: the control group, other Blue and Pucple zc-.ern-sent agencies and militar-, coands, other nationa2 :overn-ments and the United Maticns.

It is a manual and, in general, a continicus-ti-eqame. One hour of real time usually represents a day ofgine time. A qaze lasts about three working days. andci~vers approxiAately three weeks of game time. The areaof operations is depicted on an outline map of the world.Map secti'.ns, oerlays, and forms are provided to facil-itate the mechanics of gae: data cards and informationabout various cxountries, t4reaties, etc.. to assist in itsconduct and contro i.

Initially, the gare was called the Naval War YellegeStrategic Game, later, the Strategic War Game (SWG). Thefiret play took place in May of 1955. Since, one or moreplays have beer. conducted each year. These plays wereconducted in Pringle Iall until 1960. The 1961 and follow-ig gams utilized the spaces and comuunication facilitiesof the ItIS..

For the 1956 play, a coe•rehensive set of rules wasprepared. The set was divided into three models: theocean model, the theatre model, and the zone of the intericr(the Blue and Purple hoimeland) model. Tbe latter was fur-t"er divided into three suboodels: a combat submodel, an

4-34

- -ta-.-' forces and fac-lities"S --tmcn-.cJe' considered the possible

- :"-.- -n W~tin its OidT sphere of-.- organized ntc -wo divi-

- - r- The r---mir:n- ivision. -- ... . .- :, , Dcear, t•aetre, zone of

""un.hed card s-ste, ,eas

e-'D Ai.z andj --,n zxrý:icz)f

-a- - - - Is " -r- hich-sneed -oiuterr:_v---ers:tv's Log.stICc Research

-:z I:2f S' I. i x tC feasibi'-ity :,A.an- --S :1z . .I.-. res .1 C 1 capab i t1e -.

t -- _ a- e Colleqe ised computer• - -. -. ehe ,qe and the research

::•--_'-- -e e -n ect ,,z a •ae -a -o p p r t~

7 a... .. emphasis was placeda ... S :t .of t'e e ga-+e, and the rules were

gveneral procedures covercio cold-var*:--:-�: ~:�m aneuvers, and limited and gerteral

t:•:c-s. W"-::q_ :here h-ave been various chaanges inand proceduzes and the number

-f .. a-e _ cte• ec "ear, the generai concept of thezae-e, as •es xied hez_-'-, has remined fairly consistent.

"Kne .•-f --he cu.iDoses of political ga~ing, as noted byDr 2 1oe-f:e1d-, is to de onstrate in a fair.>-irfriettatbe way the variety of factors, subtle andinr.I.ub-tIe w.h•ch co intc the formulation of strategic

e- s.on He t'er. _oes cn to observe that "This is ofpar=:-z:±r val'ue to a t1iitar-: officer whose environment".n the :ourse of his training and in the earlier years of-its 7areer does n t ,ften reveal the actual weicht oipo,*Ccal, economic, and other non-military factors inde-.cision-making or assian t4 them a dominant role in the

-i- iiy stru'&ti. re.,3

4-35

Dur nq a strate g - plan ning study t-a& .ats a -s tand one haf If nths. the students e f thA S. ch o a 's 'a"

W~rfa-re axe i'! in'-z a n-=ber cf 'Blue a ?rlC EEC4 sta ffAI. i 1. l z .c~..z .xeviousiy alee-lopeý! stucient• N*:at: 'a

Strategy PaperE "-.hich set fcrth nationa! ciz. and 4C3s

prepares a J-cin- trateci, CaDabititles P!ar a=' su:cra:ncclans for cold. " .- te-, and genera" wa-r.

"At the end nf the planning stud-, four gep.pI w'4e are selected so that an equal nb er r de.n!e -gMqs can be •cnducted by four different tear- cf o s. :ofulue and Purple players. A-he Blue and P-Krple =ians tha'z are

cholam and matched for play are picked tI prorvide the partie-'nts of each gane with a naxim ru-,ber of situat ens re-

qUitrbg decitions at the national or near-natizral. level.StU ts frxr the plmnrin- staffs are either assiqned t. aStWet Goviewrmert or to the ccntrol grcup. An independent

•tro. gro-ep is organized for each -=--.

The Director of the Strategic Pl!anning tu' seiectrone stwlent frc each of the four Blue gaz.kng staffs tc

Sas President, and appoints one in each of the fuur•I@ • • staffs to an equivalent position. Thp

Stv6mt be.s of state organize their groups of about tena Akto skeletonized top-echelcn ;oVetneI2,t. struc-ta @0tvilian and military -- that reflect similar

Luctialt in the coumtriea that they represent. Thus,each sine President appoints person:el to cabinet posts,00 Security Council, and -4int Chiefs of Staff.Yht*ert of stuent organization heips insure fu I 1 part :.--ipat"n by all players in all decisions. In addition, oneofficer from each playing team is assigned as the secrctariatof that t: to check all inccming and outgoing measages.?Te persmel in these jobs are changed daily.

A ctrol group consists of two officers= from thefaculty of the School of Naval Warfare and approximately

iltema st lents. It is composed, esseontially, of fourmotiton. One section consists of the two faculty officersad students from opposing student-planning groups. Thismotion is concerned with the overall control and conduct

of the game. Each of the mwbers of a second section issaigmd an .area of the world, and the responsibility for

4-36

--.- •2 tssess'-. , :e s.ituations and interactions. .. att area. The third section kantdl"s message

S....... •-da fcurth- .. aintains l'iaison with the, opoing

-- :ts.:.z-_. describes developing hiypothetical

-- .a z•c.nt tto years in the future. These

- aae %es:i-cezd to aliow student gvernents to7e- Zr . L',.prepared policies and plan3.

J-•.. •p als: develops and issues additional==-•_ ~ ~ ~ t f._:"a'•.•s "•. urther stimulate dec'6", Prati

v-:res-ecive ta student goverints.

-.., the �9gazes are conducted simultaneously, anda- theiO 6e A the second two are played. For

S. Ei- z f twi_ gaes, each of the four student government."n- .e- are assianed three NEWS conmand-cezter spaces, one

-. serves as a czorunications -enter. The NEWS umpireS- :._.i intc twc sections, and one is assigned tc

S the tc •ontrc2. groups. A send-and-receive tele-t.- r -az.hne is installed in each student goveri•mnt'sz-':a - atior-s zcenter and in each control group's Work area.7x5:n: student qover-rents can only xounicate with each

t:._r -hrc-ach their 4 ontroL group.

During the play of the game, the student goverw-ventsac- . react to the changing world situation in accordance-ith their prev-cuusly established national objectives,.oli•:es. and plans. The control gro r itors andassesses the opp-_-sing strategies and actions, furnishesthe resuits ir. appropriate terms and, if recessary, initiatesadditional sitvations to keep the game moving. At the endof vlav, each aame is critiqued by both faculty and students.

Navali Cc•mad Course Mual Ge•

Th e ' av 2 Zo~ Course cmnducts several war gameseach acadevic year in support of its curricultm for al'iednavaL officers. These games, with one exception, areplayed on the NEWS. The exzeption is a manual game whichserves to introduce the students to gqing techniques that=ay be of use in their c•nctries. It is played in the officespaces and auditoriun of the Naval Cinuand Course.

4-37

GMIJ,- euipet ';n=Iudes gane clocks for~ the zcnt-clVWV an players, an interccmimuicat ion systev, an.. th e

VANl Plotting deviets. for&--, amd status boardt:. .64ovesIWO Submitted cm special plcttirrg sheets which are ~con-matod to viewqraph transparenr-ies by a photo _-.-ier ic

pftlect~on on a Master Plot in the Uhrpire Area 1ocatteci in

the Navel Omand Course Auiditorium. The rules are generalLA natuxe, and axe explained verbally to the players. t!m-PfIT* ev'aluations ar" in accordance with the fr-ee mpthrnoe.4ltbouq~b the czontrol group its provided with certai~n '-htathlat can be used as a gu ide.

The play of the gam is usually divi-ded in-o twoaa~ses a wnvmmt phase whichn ends wben the ra-Jor forces

vik* within striking distance ol each other, and an engage-Wot ptatse during 'which the maor forces aze in action.

1h the former, time is treated as a discrete variable. andbotb playor decisions and umpire %3valu~ations are ol theset-piece variety. The lengths of moves ar~e dete~iined bythe dizector. In Ithe -engageent p'.ipse, time is consideredboth as a discrote and as a continuous variab l,?, and set -piece and encounter type diecis ionl and eval . at ions areI .e S. All wDves are for twenty- fou'r- hour perio~ds off ganmetime.

Vpon receiving t!"~ opposing plaris, the control groupanalyxs~s tbm and detarmines; the prob~able length of t ime

It wvill tale tbe major foxce to get into action. Thedizetordivides this period into tw or three convenient

~ and calls for the first soe The c~w~Anders sub-Rit l~t1 bewts and supporting data to describc their

i~tntlmti. Oppoisq mv" aree analyzed by the control~~~ rutetm evaluated, and the refsul ts Isade )MiOvn

t~the plANYArs In the form of recozmaiseance reports,100asi, ftft inflicted, etc. The cn era mod ify theirdftntivies if naoesweay and wakes the se"cond move. Th1-is~cle~ is repeated tmtil the no-vmnnt phase is - rle ted.

For the second pbve of the game, the cvmenders aiih-sit thatr inos, ae abot 09000 the qm clocks are startedat eLhbt time xres-worid tUm. The control group issuescostain £natlliqeac. for instanc, informatiorn on thepsap as of land battles cco a periodic basis., perhaps

4-30

- -V9' .eght hours game tie: inforwation on otherer ts at the tme of their occurriece. If the flow of

... .m:. ates tz either comander the need forre-st 1r tpetuion ga~b zl-0ks nay, at the

S2 : tthe Lirecr, e either slowed or stopped-' c-t 4e:- a4-.J tis staff sufficient time to

°C-.• 3 ae-:tn. ShouLt suct a dec-isioa" result in rod-" :'=-!-.s+ "• :•=:~lplans, th_, player~s infora the

.2tr2 - ;rzu: zA ttei: ne- intentiot a b-y means of the inter-2.t-t at:C- &,3ter ano! send revised moves via messengers.

When the -a:-& -as :r'> ressed through a tventy-four hourzercl the piay -s ended for the day. The control group

crepares s'•ar~es ct the game-day's operations and brings"t heast:e t: zr-to-date. The siesaries are issued tot-he plavers. anz Azsrepancies, if any, between player andMrr7ntroi grou2 records are adjusted. The enmanders and! e'r staffs prepare their plans and =oves for the nextjan-)e-m1,. and utbnit then to the control group. Play beginsazais about )90C of the next day.

JCS Poiltico-Kilitga Desk Ga&ls

For a namber of years bstvnn the two world "vars,I-r'r aI-wiitary g mos were cmtIuc In Gerd-ny. The

participants in those games Lncltued representatives ofthe Wehruacht, political institutioms, busin•s•, the a'ma-tent industry, and the Propaqanda Ministry. 3 Baged upontechni•ues developed at the RAW totporatin, a politicai-Zi litary ga, vws concucted at the Massachusetts Instituteof Techuology in 1960. The playezs in this game includedsenior specialists in and oat of goverrmart.' SisAil~rgrin are conducted by the Cold ib= Division of the JointWar Gees Agency of the Joint COLots of Staff. They arerefsrre3 to as JM ?olitten-ilittry Dok tmees.52

*StiAnet prticticpticu gn a alo conducted at MI?ad othecr nlless La tie t..dStq of goip policy,stratey ad lna•tett ncal relations.

4-3,

-~t:a.:; a~es are int- ate--wa: :3J~~ War cssKet'~~

of ficiai f r::c ý c u~ E 4aff, Dopa r tn~ -_c Sta-,e,Depa ~t zf .7--1s n *Ct Thiefs ý,f Staff, ant.~ t~

LI a.h a3C-e! r 7 adhev are played in ~ Pentagontec assi.st ir, 2--e aral. s :ýf national oi~e a3~a.and 'Zo o~r~c% ýiie ze ar a:swit*. an in~sight p:rýs-sibl-_ f-trenece.

7h e'ra to or scenario is pr epared bv thle-war gvner-, !: the J-tWaz Games Agency w:tn i.nputs a~-assista-Ace 1-o all in~terested agren"Cis. T"_ scen-riarC t*sdesig-ned Itc ,rc-.ide a plausiblie sequjence cf events builnli-cg-

.,.-.ue Crisis st-iati-.-n. one that will lead ýcaexaliat--ra --f ntlc-rMal objectives, stimulate new ideas,

7:he participants are ci~inand ailitary :-1ffxials,amalyests, economists, and others Invoalved 1r aot~jal day-tc-day poltic-al-military :prcbl~ Sometimes o-cerea.expertt fr various fields participate a~s pla.esasubers of the --ontrol grouzp. The participants are dv_,deJiin~to a :cnrol group anid tw.o or more team ef !__"re nr sixpl*.yers. The playerý-tes 1 Xiscuss possible strategies,th~ri confer with toams o:f more senior official.s whc z:a~ndevote cw-iy a short period laily to the game. Th~e acvesar. written-up by the players and passed to the controlgroup. Thew control group *vwluatee the actions of theopposing tent, updates tbhe situ~ation, and provides ;r. el-ligence te th, players. A gam lasts about fcour to L ixdays win is falle~ved, by a critiqu~e. Tbe scenario, messages,and~ other snatrial co~iled during tbe, game and critiqueare distributed IM the player-s for kurthez analysis.

The 9in ax&e purely manual Von altbou~b the comutiazSrsech of t-Ne Cold War Division is deVelOpIM9 subsd-els toprowid's cowptoer assistance. Scm games have utilized areote-V1 aT technique misS tar to that used at the 3w'a va. warODl.9. for Frleet qin.ee Th"M gnsý Pait Conurrf~tpae~.cipation by at ficials im Xuzvpo wd fshington.

4 - VN

-~ ~ ~ ýe W~ar Gam-es D.;-. ws t -c t -- r n

- s t hE -_ .:. ~:73 e

.1 .an ' ;a Iye-- gae. it-~~ 2- -ree'p1ý-a z1cse-d game.

t~cseprev1ousily iescribex3 in-nzer-neI cief'y wsith *he Se-

&-.z, :ro= ?__St of thrm be.-ause it-~~~' -v 1 :isi5.ar = ~an Y

- -~-- -~-f e~d±uz-tional games u.sed to:- m'E re detailed rules awnd

c- ?Nh a nie s c a II it a researca'

:~-rc~ aivA, z::d larg-e 9caleipE are uased. F rces are

e ma -- a 7-:ioj; sizes, shapeA'~-e-s':gase. Moves, aa -ae i-ter-

rer~; -tiet -nutes of real ti-e. D~..e-'- e~- : a: re :I--nsidered and evai,,ated I~

7 e s an pr-c-edures , a 9 ;.xz'_e '

. wo cpposing team-s &And a z:antr-:)q-ease procedures are f~lo 1 ed, i.e.4

I&ýt__tZ_-.' ,e%-i-sed. and general and s pecia A-~ ~ e Z~ 'ei.-ec --e gotr~ raup exazines care,"2'~

3.rŽJ w! '.-e desirable, adapts s=-, of theme s~c~: ros~cf t'.e siawulation. Thus, ruiles

~ -> ar~~s:f:e sL"zu'at~on th;at are not pertinent

e 7 trc- a se~ s q~ be revised to iný_-ude =tcre: ýrc-ed-res ... ar. had previcusly beer, copiIe-d , and

* 7a. r ~dat ~!:aprovided.

-. ~raze tw-: plair tszzs The Blue tear~ repruseats- ~ :_.i~zers and staffs of a Marine or-ps force.

='e- n, -a r t Ae Pr,:1 this force might be an iifantryzt:-.a ir, an force, etc. The Red team ati:ts as

4-4 1

aZý,ar~prieto to the prt-lie b'47&Y aintly~ied, tne Blut teacrima Warms Corps doc~raxm,- the RAd teas, xnrsifar asyractlcable. the tact.-- us an ri;ar~izaticn :,xf t.ý,e!rethey rerrnone-t. Stverr av in, * real b-rxld, 7spposiflq

a~war~mra (ire granted the eswe latitude :~rý sakin; detcl-Rlious an they tou'Z' have -n a ti=ttsr raa-*jjA'r-ic uit~ax

A oirtqle -oiayer way rapresent. a ntabe,ýr '7! e&¶ecns5 -frC^'Q~d. ý Fr tnstanee, he 3:qght Act as a tei-zOta w-Rrnuntira 55ver11s bsttaliot ' ýnta-JwAers. a nrts)r c:;f czoanyrc.v.snders. and so on. Flaj,.7ý w-~ *Any separate arnd dis-tinttrole* requir s iasqtxna--Amý and -ýiental lisczip.ine -inthe ivafl of each pistyor anir ca--!-ftA writcsrin~ ant a~Aess--msnL by thit c~mtrot 1r~~. ua, if a player. -n h~s roleas a battalion it.auder posuiwe§ees x:'tlievcjqe the

platocm coar4.~r wotc 4: not receive fcir two hours, tt~en ianeplatc O2C ~der. be &a~ as if h* dl not sa wh5Sf'fiS

inforatior. ',un order tt~.t a -:hayer :.*sues &as a 3t..tiffl

commi~a 0' t wot rea&t hLIS in h~in capacity a-- a battaiic-,r,COMMW4L tar a Mwber of hou~rs Othat is spct tied by tlecontrol groy AP accordabmw* vt1 tk, r-ules. Hence 'hrP tiocs

not reqponi to tin owtsr at the to'vtr level initil. the appr"-

nriat* Ir ?&$ elapsed.

-*Wtr# it is cc,-aidered r-n Aavt xchicnt its F-4r~e &M

s~uftticewt data banu boon cvriiP1ci forý crC yis--4 and stud-oas4:r prur-ration 'of a rvport. Zn siaera., a qwse is

pATayU' but oncev aitbrnqh anrttottr of a ;ma way b.ere

played~sew times in ordtr to providet mre ranmu

ia7~rathm r ~ raa-if poeSi-btere2ts

?AtflW. is -Or--wrr4 with Che detast'a f ct ;roun& wrfare. t is an mnlytica' two-atded, C -ou.Lw)tr

m#is-t*.4 m ~wpAsy" at tia "n divisioo #&d 4 ner levels.*we" nsselty renaufl oue-half honr of real. timae a" re-jqwttr albet a,#bt hbero t-- make, teen. and dissvntttz tnt"it,. fin at" cS operatiun ts ipVrnaitol by

It3,OO stkeV~'e farces -At* stimaated by p...eceofn~ric'o shra sloew a&d ccors. A& Lc saw of the ear lir

>1�

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gB

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manuai games, the tac.k of learniiu7 the requiredshorthand is formidable.

This 4ame was developed b, the Res~arc~h AnalysisCorporation as 4 research tool for evaluating tacticalsitua~tcns, a&r as ar. experimental gase for devising aNdtestIng tactica. 7arrinq methodologies. The military:ngredier* is in-ected into the ge by retired militarySficers who act as consultants and players. Civ|liav;,Palysts desi.n the norsels, 3ct as assessors, and cnductthe post game analyses.

r •KTE.RSPIE! is a tneater-level coq.uter-assintedM4anuml game. It was a311o Jesigned by the Research AnalysisCoor•oration. Th,!t purpose of thves gai is tc studyselectee. prrblems :oncerning the eployment, strength,structure, ind suppcrt reqprementp of Army forces at thetheater 4evel and irn .'ar 4,ing ccnflict situations.' It isa three-room game, and each. of the zaming roi is equippedwit?, rear view prc~ection screenE for displaying the qsituation on maps and overlays.

Pkxlpo~los. 35

Monopoloqs t.s a manual game that was designed to sim-ulate a part of the Air Force supply system. In this qmea single player acts as a spare-parts inventory nar r.If a group plays, a number tf gaes may be conlucted simul-tazwpouzsly with each person playmng the role c the inv a-tory manager ir his own individual game. In M opologs,a player'; miasic' is not to exert po-litical or economicpressure or to deploy military forces or enqaqe an e.noy,but to satisfy a fluctuating Jamand for a specific sparepart at the lowest cost. It if a military ga only inthe sense that it deals with a military suply system.Actually, •onopoloqs -is concerned with the universal prob-lem of invertory as a whole, both military and non-militarythow to put the right supplies in the right place at theright time, and at a mini-,m cost.*3

The game was devel?.* d about 1955 by tne Logist.csDepartxwt of the RAND Corporation as a by-product of astudy aiw at building a math sitica l 41 of the Air rc

4-45

01004 5ystdm. It Pe mdetr'onie several simplifying revi-Si**, bwt its basic puatpos &Md f rwwwwrk have not been'Olt~ats* It has WIeN ;lay*,, by' military officers, indus-

triaMad mAIV per osnol .

UM Iimeis ouie-si~vd, and is conducted :-hie'ly formaiitiona purpoe-o. It is zoncernod with. one depot and

fUeO LdesiCal two-wing baes.. The 14Wct is the wholesaledtrtibubatag the basees. th4i conswmrs. A rigid method ot

ewalustiwcsa~uloyed.

"Mb dpare parn with which a player deals is a nypo-tbotical hiqb-valne airfrme P ow.-ent known an a 'wtidget.'

lbn US ome widget in each of the Zbera located as thetIUV ba~es. 41t is necessary to replace widgets wher, &-twymew act, or i f they prow* to be defective. In the latter

s.e they ca be repaired at the depot.

wtramie to the m~, a player is supplied with the rnlesof do m . Thaee specify the cost of widgets -- S1,~00SpLqf. pilus a fimd fee of S1,000 for each order placw~-Od a mA~ tim of ala. moths. An order may be speeded

or an rVcy order placed. but such decisions incurAim s' ousts. "w price of rq2ariznq vifqtot A. - threem~lt:m . 40 aWpe aS ie-up cost. An~ additional

~SW onts the tim to an* month. ?ranaportatior, charqes forNO~m fum bow to 'be" are $100 per square part - traps-

~g~atU tm. am. 1mth0. Storae" at the depot or at. -abo Is $4 a meth for each serviceable wikdgot- $20 for4* Ohat ow be repaired. if a player cannot meet thewSOOif i z wtrmte for any of the bases for wbich hie ii

x~in~b1ftr parcerxamert, raqw~. and distribution, heIs avesa a pemlty of $1 , 000 per wmoth per spar part~u*1 Ma &&i is eatiasfied. Ibis penalty is - ..- . an

toam ft cout incurred ~em a part is hot av~ilIAM" pm dmdjand the resultant loss in mili tary worth

ja aMUmu to t)** rueA6, a player is provided with

" dnbee Mhnee" ti 14l tited inpsrienee With~a Wýnhe b"a XeeO idea of the nw~r of

ywOý ~ hb s e ase ovex a 1to period of tism,to No at %M A will41 fliuctuat* has VOL" to mth.

The •rly Tisquipont needed to play the gu art the: ~or-s required to record the decisions o! the player aM:o keep the scores, and a dmand table or a 'spinner.'

Nov-* .e., e:is-or&' are made by months. At. thestart zf the g~e t-ere •e nor spare parts in the system.a--! al. of the bases are inactlve. Bases are phased-in

accord:nq to a schedtile uhtic), is know to the player.T- h, e f'rst t-2* Is N *-vAtCd at the e!d of ýhe tenth

raonth, the secon;d, &,. the erd of the seventeeth motit, and

0s -on. A 'layer s places ý-. i • ' irder duringthe orm ee-month o2 pma sxr.e ruru rt leai-time.r nine months, anl iz akes an:ýther -nth to ship partsfr-'> the depot t.- t'*,# base.

Wher a base is activarted. its re4uiremwnts fur sparesreplaoe worn-cut awr- repairable vidqet- is based upon a

ra.-wos demand wt.ich f.ictuatos abo:t - ma*n value. The

player d<oes not know the exact val2I -f tie nar. but thepianning data provide in estimate. The d6emand is retealidby a table -- wthich mAy be wuicovereo, month by scnth, asthe iame proqres**e -- or the spinner may be. used to imon-orate Pdemands. The values obtainewd - th the si-t•,er are

base- on the some distr•utor as the table.

At the erA- of 31 mo~th~s, the quake s ended. A pI 3, re

-7,utes his :,sts and -cares them with acores ottainvzý. ontetporary or prev;.oug p&ays. -Th score is .mportant.

C!zourse. but no .%Dre sc than t~e player's skill :n evalu-atinq the prablms that crup up 6-,riaq th-e play. and hisrpercptiors of how his decisions have contributed to thetotai score."35 Should the player or pla•ers replay the•.ame, a isfr~-•aw-A pattern may be. creted b-- the -isof t.he s~pinner, or the se iemand p attern may be rm b erte d

again to alloy the Flayer-s to test a different strategy.

ThN s diiin --his chapter pasiz those.that are -- or w.e -- played at the*. Nv 1a4 War -Z--l0eqe-he S•u rirm T&c'.ical GOW, the JCS Politico-•f•itar-• j.,

the Landiag ftrcs )3a Gme, IAcPtI, TWAThMP Z , "n

\ 4-47

"e"Lwngtr Ot oing1a. Otbar meammi mmd ccqpater-

1mtOW SgCSNI Of the Air Vnfiwerelty, the U. S.&%*- StateWmd *CtC6 f"Yas GruPtheCwsaianArIR~as r"I 29 abl elva t, nd he PLW orp rat on.

TIRWZ MI NEW S AN TWG I !IG

%avv -ectroru.c Warfare Sinulatoi' (PW)1 isa~-' opi7 ystewtr h~t was des;,qned for the speciftl

p-1,rPý-sf -,,t -rovidinq students f--f the Naval war CcollIeqe witt

n yportuanity to lain significant cob- expert-Pr'e .n i reallistif- iettinr- -und ý;nier the press of real

was' :n 4L5 -e'e! as a replace o-nt for the yam-ilsa ltýe Cclleq an! planred arnd constrij-7ted ap aI ~~ ~ -ý '-h -- ll cr~T rz wa -wiar~n system. Time NW

'~-b~e ~A~es : ~a~e''~'-rfcre~ re~cei ve i rte .i cence.-,lap-ons. an~d -comniL-ate -- th 'rieridly forces and

;.z e1 qub'eýt tc *_pire contrc. the syste &lst- pro-2 et~for the autowati- mor._tor~r., and ev3luat~or of

pert'rent aspect5 of tJie empoyme.'r i- I ite7actxor~s --xo'PDCSInq fo~-'es.

The NEWS occupies the three-str -entter wtag cf SimsHall Savail War V.olleqe, Newport, R. 1. War gaes played

-ý1 sx.u'.ator mre :luovted Ander the x ct-' nd~er~or~of the war 7rawxnc Depact-Rert -1 lt)e :eq~ ipatantis alxcO responsible for the pro-qram.*q

-Ind naxr-tenarzclh of t'Ie SE4m.

:r~n r~War :I the Navd* War lq ie

-e~,-'v,) trjiditiora_ board qam ir~ carryirx, ouv itrt~e-'onod esa.~or cf prerparing officors for nihor

man W-- hilp every effort Was Mudie toD iC GVP t hC 9Mk rV es

and lata xbreast or ever. ilxqptlty ah*&d -f th,- r 4p i d1 Y-hangim; meth-da and (zoc~cptt, of n~avel v-irfare, ,.t WPe'roqniz*d that 1th* simulatiotn techniques of th qab*

board left mich to be desired. (rmosequently. vhc '

9%ireau of Sh~ips -,ioted ir early 145 that a -_oatat inforua-tirin 0.nt~r (CIC) trai~r~r dewv*.oped by t-, university ot-alito~rnia niqttt aesist ir. the -orduct ti war :,)oems.r~rpresentativs._ of the latter ,~nstitut.,^, viewd wi vft~nt aeaI. . Xdtkcouo tho t~rainer proved to bov, too 'xI'ato in

scope for qwin4 purpo~ee, its priiwIploo sp~.arod- *ppl xbl

AA

to ft o.l1Iy's war 9umkian requirements, ai,. this wass~mtft idea of constrct-inq a system or doviue tf:'ý,

aftu*abi of naval warfare.

TA June of 1%5 the Mairai War Coliege fcra--arded -

kI p t to OWe Chief of Naval Operatin~s that steps betmbf to deig mod build a warfare 9.mLwzatcr. FiveMtwr the ueuof Shpvadietd he-ýeff

tI~n Operatios to delo dwinatiq:~e an,- ,-.e~

--9WtiMt theJ *- ccz:gisaxrto-ar- -r, *-c

tal v. tC.ll, udpuit was to be andled thtt*s _xla

Lit qpoeru ts hand diew qinati c nacn~i~cusappropratedm cnwutations fahities Vhn ~rmol teeliinatsuch Imbiersome d-varc ency ,1(-e as. ~~e

rate U2a. stm= t a dicetrarale t~n thie. eal-bae. nýitLhwould appersto have as e ivaler tc repaacnsan -xe-1c

tbw se~ed ad f irepower of dmawww forcer.

kWe vfiqae nature of --.he averall ww~er-ta~kirq r~q-_iredcmuefteseo bet"%.= Intte..etd naval aict i vitieos

a list Oml of ariijal rwre*arct and Ateimant at. cr azxwtie ftatp md must uctio" of satirely new oov~xxnts &Mi~L t UM am awtl I"?7 that t-1 eystaf -- with *h xcept1orn*1 t__a~ cmae -- was*l~tad. otiring the Ace-

ftod To w IW the Omed amod Staff Deartment ofg u~ *030C one4 ~ tbe wAI itbout the beo'-

fit oth ft 4p corter. W)tkaOw$ tJ-w 4ms were

Imo Uttipatt SaAs and ~ the Is%& puowe the %vi &

-fedm" wp*. .o cakpated in 19. ad as 4a

44

) ~Admirai CbArles F. Lyeman observed. (freed) ... 3iuora.rs from the back-break~nq job of das"e valuatio.m

While the simulator wOs conceived initially for VftE

~i~qeus~g. it becm appxent -- ovan during the dssi.*and installatinr phases -- that the V wa &valssbl*

tool fcr expilorinq actual naval operatioms. Denc,. VMthe Navy Waraae Program was established, it includedMEW' gainq.

At fazsz tho NEIrb was caiied tros gJectranie Oaameinrman~d Lýsplay 4yetem (8"6): later. the Xlectzooic 3WsaeiveEKwarl1 system (US). After it t'*cM oseratIinfS&I the Ran

?' :tle is not Otended to imply that the system simulate*eietrcnic varfate, bk:, that i4 - saicys electronic =*ams tosivtiLate warfare.

A number of modifications and uxmpznqnts have began

madie tc tis -R #%ince its compltion in 1950 anid in tho'atter I~f of 1962 a major aodification resulted in the

addition of aw oemiipnt rvd ýha co'n~tru~ction of tvo&dditional p aver spaces knw ai; oow headquarters.

'.roarporisibility f-r tne IN=S and for WMM gaingnwas aszsqned tniti*U~y twe the Commano and Staff D~artzt.tUpc'- the orqan lltrt ic~ of the War G(4inriq Das,-Uet. thiseresponsibi-ity waa asineiw*a to that 4earteunt.

'"he In~itial coot of the SAVVY ?TICtroftic WA far'aS~D~a was vsps qriox.atsy $1. 2150o100 Siuboeq~At modi-

ficat~ons and ivg~wcvenwts h-av* tn~cr**%oe th.te~it

denfI*0 rnMd tn~ ht t 311* qz e.c ~ ~ wal that

t~--4t~fof the bav*ai Uar -10141". may 14S7 to

4MI4ry the fA-_ikitj.. of -kW zi and pro~' v ls war iarirSinvtto 71"~t omwads xr~ Suppert zI~f tr-e War. h;r meF

Ngo~z Yb partuent ide,'Lrcpe Ard pxvsen~s W; r wa

W e 9inq emoves for *&c. -. th# cd~c rr"~-the ftllp aad for e~tfit-.rs frc-v -ht v:l.t

The War Owingr~ flparu " t con 9 1 s tf s --Assistmt Director, or. &&-r~iatrist~or *z, ~ -~~DIIisisics ae Shoun in Figurt - T'he )~

-isti~m M R~earetf, (01) Oivlsior~ --nsistsotttiews ". two civiIIAV.. one o~!tizor -a'es i'- * .

fi,'. MV Asi9iied to Ithe Gm.-mIr; Devol>-rimet bri-," vthe Opmatio.. and Pr-oqr'sir~q &%-Lrr'ý t-c~ ~'ý

andti~, ftepr'ý-t aran,"'- C-- f t-.ý i _-Fthe perattoms researc.i analyst C-zthe 'i; L- -' ie avt -

at:. tMs Semmrd is assiqrm.d tc' thp 'perz.:,,~rs in:z-aa3i~ brc a.s a visup" aide vpeýx-'IAlst fc:

W' Pgvemtation~s. and let--.tres.

Threar* & -tv officzers ir the E-ieerin': a~r: _

team ~vi*lomfl one SW4S the- 0D-is-on the zý-)--~ '-

~ pts if oux aloctron-le tec!-ýi iar-~ ýii. I-L.1s; One Mdaltewamc ranech incl-ades zt-'.N&SU4ab'A peuomml. The A mnitatv s&octi~-- ~

atth~ mlis1ted arawubli- the ~rc~ e-ea-.

" "m~ i No. t lectrmi o*ral-* wa pad - ~~

AWANN 20"tuft~e tu the qm- boX md its asa'o- ateebti ~~ d pltott &4 diaroi w. `PS#ea.

tie~ 4 .v. .ses tte place0 0. VOII--lý "W'ý~~*0mr"o WOW* &ad~g all l ~ t~he t~ s

opm *"or4~ to usmply r.d Azid

etf.ts ~ v~m - ~ - A

.- ~' AM4

- ~ aL % ~ 'JA-VIC

-~* - :4' c r C

:- iE;U E GWEWP s

~ ZAC:%F H~E WAP 'GAMING DEPARTMEMToA WAR COLLEGE

WA*7-

q- 44

.-. , X zi~...e for st'~£

sprs.-te .3d In-_te-_:3.

c-~ Iay;er z7:,,os ar. tihe :on'trc.. -c areA. S;.'nCe

t'ý S-';tf= --'a5s desirne 'Fre ad two-sppc -I.- the~vesre n~ anm_ and e-q_.1~_ 4.3.-s ::ýh ah e:e r s

* Ke :r r-he -frenAy.

- t~:~ :7>ci (":ee F,-gure -'' a-e

an. cent:ý t n "r of! ten White. A '.arqer nv.'"errcr x :.tes~'~4 flaor. refe.' rrý--' tc

the 141,.ite cia.ar ýeadqares -~~& r~~~aq--art-ers for the ZS--'e-r sidc .s located on the i-'.rst floor.Tne c-oani hehdqua~zers a'4a ý.entet_ _.tl :-A .eC; :.Me:tand cx-au.rols required b-.: the ?layees for the cocuand' anL--

-- nrolof assiagnod forze .n a war gw,-

Mhe control group area is d.vided into. fýr parts:u~apllre &rea, czoinicationsi room, control roos. And. equ-p-aert =xm. As the name im~plies, the umpire area is the

whvtich contaIns the eqjipnent and facilities thatanable the umpires to obseeve the actions aind interact..cnsof forces and weapons. i.n~ect profession.!1 judgment _.nto t~hc~otro:. of the game. anid initiato c!WnqOD-& ard mx'.ificatlonsto the Rutmatic s~mitoring and evJuation _ýuLnctions of thesimulator. It is dminateoi by a large mater plot screenwhich dspicts the area of optraticons, and upen which is pro-

je--+zdthe moving inaqes of all actIve 'forces, Green andWite. Thom -,pire area contains equipmnt whiich. per--itsthe.mpi~rao to prraject tbexsseLves into suriy command ce~nteran~d to Onee" the forces -- friendly and etnqay -- that thePlayers in that. ccwand cmne have ^.tnir 1ir imm;Aedi.atesurveillance. to~ lixten in* on the 'JM¶.zicaticnv b.etween

5-6

3at _ _ _ _ __e _ _ _ _ _ __WN onmaSNNN

meowT T

~' m ~ ' _________________________T___

SIOW FLOS

Z&0441-

OA10k f

00:w

41$HEbATIC OF ME~WS AREAS

40 0

the COMsand centers on either sile, and to know what damiagehbW bee suffered by each and every force.

.Mm the Wire area is a balcony with s'catingS.... .tS for ap�r�r�~ ately ninety. During a game

balbo" is used by spectators to observe the playas it umfrlds on the masteoz plot screen and on matri2cesof liqbts that signal the wmloyme.t of ve-?.,. ns. During

d after gams players may be assembled in r-he balconyor in the rear of the unpire ;,rea for briefings andcritiques.

The cooicatiOns. conetro-. and equiptent rocks (pluss• areas on the third floory contain much of the equip-

nt required for gettine, the system rea4y for the play ofa *- (pr• • qdig). for operating the system, and for

-kg tram' changes during the conduct of a gane.

The W has ;_ design capaility of representing fourecem at or areas of operations: 40 by 40, 400 by 400,1000 by 1000 and 4000 by 4000 nautical wiles.* Positionswithin an area of operations are identified oy a fixed gr:that is izu8pvnnt Of the size of the area. The oriqinof COOrdinates df the X griL is at the lower left, andit hs 4000 boriuutal or east-vmst (EM) units and in eq-JaIaumber of vertical or north-south (R) divisions. Thus, ifthe arýinates of a pocition are 1000.,EW and 2000 NS. itis 10 adles to the grid east and 20 miles to the grid northof the loe left corner of a 40 by 40 mile area of opera-tioms, 100 all.. east and 200 miles north in a 400 mileare- 250 wiles east and 500 miles north in a 1000 mile

•. 5 ••.

The ystem has 48 active forces: that is, 48 forcesu*di• a boe med by Zbe players. -;rmc.e naer-ed from

0otw sixes may be =sed. See the, section Scaling?e ce and Other Ghmicks in this chapter.

5-8

tý 24 are permanently assiqnod to the Gretm coand-enters: forces 25 to 48. tc the White command oers.

Since there are re f)rces on a side than c1ommnd cemters,some centers have more than one force. Ttus. en each side.four zommand -entetr contain ' force each: two, 2 forces;arnd four, 4 forcis (See Table 5-1).

?ASLE ;-1

ri! SIflBVTION OF MM PORCE ANDVMG MV 9M q MERi ---'--_-- -

i u' e~an ur zof 'Force mnb~er's'enter kA i fnec I

! ' ; 3.44 4

41 4

* 24

S•4 , -o "- .. 9 .2 "

;RE=~ '.inadReadkuuarter9

22,3 2-.264 4 29,3C,3_.325 4 33 34.35 3(

S6 4 3,.38.39.4C*1 4 41,42 43,44

6 145.4S4-

t j-. _4o _ _"*octvals me radtcators flor rotes t

**Cotrols and Indtcators for Force 25.

C'-9

Tht ~e z ~z ýan d _ne aq. .a-r te r E:0t l ~c S Cc nrc Slnincxv:rs f-.r force teW.t oa~ d~tŽ~c~ntro1!- andz Indicattzrs frfz-::e 25. As ':~ zr -

c-r pat~e -1~ ss 5 7e: - : f Ices jhead~arters an~d c;:r s :j 7- os bt.eworld' s-ystems represen-:e'- ai4z hje Z3cnstrai.r-s -c:spa~ce and eme~more forces in a -.a~e :7-- c ýe s s ~ ic,-ft rce ws assr, g* lnýcerte:

T'-e 4JS YEW~ fnrce5s -~i-cc -areuver: -* .

g r-3up ?er s cnne I : _a t _z nc- :ie ~zc r oo- Zz.trol offor_,es ziav be wxr:sc et_*er or no:t t:ere areplayers in t~hc C :erc;es. :f :lavers -are ... ==and zenter and -th-e fc.-7- --r 11crce -- assiton#ed to t-at Zer. te rakre maneuverez4 frorm the zr.rcomn. them th~e ::Iav.ers a,,-be aivien or denied a -eado-Ut ofl the cour.rse, soed -i:altit-Uie or d-erth of *-I-- NEW forc-es -usic-nec : :ý:

and~ Zerter.

A NEWS f orce na !_-e ...se-J -_z &-evresent as n~-.e s-..aircraft126.. sube4r;.e, a -r-4~a~ iM sc~e tc-saggrp-gtiofls or corIi.biat:ons of -uh.nits. Fac-. fc-_ze:.pro-4acted on t*-e =.aster- nct scree~n as a sJ~-Irci -:3Q eshap and coc:c of a ora-ect-e- inage reflects ý:- i.eand side of the re-o~ :~,chtclfr ezr~:e-mmted. and bc*th the - .ae and -olor of. an image =av b>ecbainqed =a.y.allv fro. game to =ame or duringajr uc c orother breaks, "s the situatic-n d~ictates. Each NEWS fcrzesay also appear as a sinqile blipi on radar-type scopes kno-7as azit-uth, rancge indicatcOrs (AR:*s! which are Iccated .both the player and cznntrol grouip spaces. X11 b1in"S :-reapproximately aqual in s~ze, andA the size of a bA' a ~sindependent of the nature 4rd cae-qosition of the :iunitir represented. For instance, if NESforce nem~beris used to rep.-esent a sincyle k~xxber and PM1S force 25 ar~Attack Carrier Strikina Forc=e, the bliva depictirna f'or:ceand 25 an the ARX's are equal i~n size.

Tr4~i~o to. Zaility. a OE force can sic~ulate thesnsor systems and offtenive capability of its real-wtorldoinitorpart. and its vulnerability to attack by ene~y weapons.

Tho comand center to which a NESforce is assigned contains

cc J icaf~o~ aa~2:ee. p r er s e nte d;

r -e e hat I EWS force wdill represent.r fcr part of a g ae the. th at

-e rtr.nent c.-rarotei- st. zs t 0:represents. The 3haricr•- -s

e z -S VS Ieniedl to a NEVIS force are: rix-. ;o--• ra:es t zen: and descent (if the forzee repre-

* .. a~r:aft or t n-ar.ne" detection and intelligence":;- 4nder various plaver-selected sensor-

; .....- d -o 3 ns and ranges at which the forcee-ec-ognze.1 b other forces in the s,.-ster.

•-cef -Z• Iav be assiqned or denied areSiah< I Ccs a3d the ca-acity to sustain da-age frc=

--- -ns ani- s-.uffer a leg~rdation of maximum speedties as a result of such da&age.

-n - he 48 =ovable forces, the NEW zontains.--:r-es tat ae k-•wn. s fxed forces or fixed targets.

-:-es are ".nz uded for the purpose of representinga -a. aids, -an.•-arks, and so on. They can be aanu-

os,-o.ei frz= the control roam and assicned to anye-4re! :or:2-.a-e poiitions in the area of operat:ons. Th.

'_ , 7 for-es s:av be- ipilaved on the ARI's. anc -av be de--:eo bv he s-ulaated sensor svstels of acti.e forces.

'ce 2 "a-n , be prz-ected on the baster plot screen. but m-,:a:ed on that screen by .hand-applied symbols. Fixed

" rce z•anno-ot be controlled by the players, or a~signed-ir>.<.~:v o-r detet- on capabilities. Neither can they

"-:c:' rutain AaA~age

"=ard Centers

--.. :z=ar.d centers ccontaan the basic facxilitics for. Czand anr. control of assigned forces. A coe=and centj,:.--- s:;late a fag plot, zbat information center, opera-

"t.cs =crrn. center, coaman•d post, and so on. If desired..-ne faczlities of two or mre cixand centero way be com-inedby the use of interconnecting doors.

Fr'_Pre 5-3 shows the forward section -- f a typical cormand

center. In the front part are the aijLuth range indicators.

5-Il

- ,-

6?VI

z

z

4.

7

ejA

4 __

.J�

* - - '<i s i•. :ae selector switch. This switch enablesc:c e ýect at will any one of six range sc&ae:

.. . C. 4G. >. an-d C ziles. A force associated v-,,n-. t.:u range :.ndicator appears as a blip in the -enter

"- szzpe. C 1her forces, friendly and enemy. that come

d e.-.e:- - o 4•e ranges of that force, appear as blips*--. s e and the range and bearings of the blips may--ead directly from a polar plot inscribed on tbe face of

-- C scZe. A hand-operated light-sensitive probe provir es- -'.ars of :nterrogatin•' any blip. Umn a blip is inter-

t to six itens -f evaluated Lntelligence of the-rs reoresented by the blip uay be indicated on a target"_r-ttion -?anel at the right front of the room. Addi-. - f so programmed, the course and speed, and/or the

•';E'-* force number if the probed force ay be read out.

A _,wS fore =ay be prograimnf to receive a "remote- thnat is, the 'look" of a distant force. For example.

Sf: rze 25 represents the White fags'ip and force 28 a* airzraft or an air early varning ... ssion. the presen-

- .=-:o. that appears on the ARI associated with force 28 may--sc be displayed on an ARI in the coand center which;;es force 25, the flaqship.

Bps .appar3...g on the ARI's provide both bearing andi.Aj-nze inforziati-ir. For passive or *bearing only- intel-i zence. a panel of the passive information display system

£DS) ,.s mounted on the rigbt wall of each command center.Pass~ve electronic or sonar intelliqence is originated byIhe -=pires, transmitted to the appropriate comandze.ters. and displ.yed on thee paaels.

It, the front of each cand center and to the rear oft-.e azr_.uth range indicators are force motion controlpanels (Figure 5-4). These panels cmioain the knobs anddlials for controllirg and reading the curs- and speed ofa force. A change !n course can be made at a maximim rateof six degrees per second. A speed dial in labeled from0 to 50. and one of three adjacent multipliers (1. IC and"300) is used to indicate which of the following three speedranges is programm•d: 0 to 50, 0 to .500. or 0 to 5.000knots. Acceleration frv 0 to the maxiowm reading on aspeed dial requteros apprrximaately 30 'sconds. The

5-13

Force Xcý:ior. Control zand Fire Control Panels

Ficjre 5-4

instantaneous location of any force in a c'o~anc ueei'teris displayed in NIEWS grid coordinates on coardinate cou.n-ter* mounted on the right walls of the'centers. Thesecounters nay be covered if it is desired to deny thisinformation to the players. The track of a sele-ted forcenay be automatically plot11-ted on a dead Ireckoning tracer(D~r) Installed at the rear of each CONand cent2r-. GC-metine is displayed by a gme clock, and-,an associatedindicator reveals the time uwultiplier'or gam speed in use:1. 2, o:. 4. Gawe speeds may be changia in the control roomas the director desires. en such a change is made theLi*icator charges to. the ew game spead. and the motion offdces. adjustst autowa ally to the new speed. i f a gameIs stoed for any re n. the qanke clocks read the timeeat whicb the gae stopperd and the, game-speed i-ndicator

5-14

-, - -" • aIso contains oush.:t~• y t em~ne,.'e -f•. i. ts associated] for-ce in

an- - :ffere,:z alt:tudes or depths. These. -.esicna. _eves 'usually referred to as- :t- repres*ent any desired alti-

:~be ansigne d realiatic

-t ece-. that is. reali3tic times may-. "r:. ..-•:, . . . .'•- f-r:,, - sh f .. roG one. ajt.tade Cr

.- e. he five bands zav alsoS ... ers _ehect at any time one of up

S, e nez -:>er ating -nditions for the

M S _. re. Thus, band I might be-•-.--- re•ree. -- .:z :.• which -- either active

- .- 3-C •anl 2. the epiaoyment ofs a:n ar- . : -e -,-s -f ac-tive radar, and so on.

- .se' _ aver "shes to •.pio radar, he pushes.e -A:< •ssc-atez "-ih *-.d a . and his ferce is auto-

a t a -aSss:e an act:-.-e radar 3etection capa~ility.

:- -cr..n.• uae_ are, -':ed at approximately the:on: :_:erte o: ei. c . ce-'.,.:. 'See Figure 5-4). ,7hese

S:7.-t3_n th-e zontrols and indicators for the euploy--eaon s. Fcur MEN weapons. A. B, C and D. are

- assi-ne` tzD each NE1 force. A hEWS weapon maye -se--:-' represent a single real-world or hypotheticaleapcn - an agcregation of such weapons. It 1 -ay be fired

s:r.:`e salvos, or placed on avtomatic fire. In e'itheras. "-he rate of f:re is pre-set to approx.imate the actualr assuee rate. Salvo remaining counters show the initialjmber o: salvos available to each weapon, and automat-

c " re:ord and displa, axnition availability at anynstant during a qg . Wher. a weapon runs out of aymtnitiont is automatically deactivated.

"- an enemy force is read out on a target informations;la'," =anel. the players controlling the interrogating

orzc may acqulre the enemy force with one or more weapons.nd :1 f and when they so choose, press the firing key oreys. Wen this is done, a bell and a visual uignal 'nhe target's and center warns the target force thatt is under attack. Should a hit (or hits) be made, thevst e- may be prograe so that a light flashes on theiring force's fire control paT.el to notify that force that

5-15

11% hAs scored a hit, or the htsignal. nay be dlen;.ed. T.-epercent of damagm tc thte target resulting frces a hit or- hitscauses a r-or'responding drop in the effiecti veses s remainingmeters of the target onc. ze of tbese*- meters Is l~ocatedon the force's notio~n contxol Panel, another on i.ts charac-teristics pa~nel in the z-ontrol- room, and a thirad Is locatedina the umpire area. Effectiveness rinaining m'eters areqraduated fron 0 to 10C, percent-t. and an -undamaged IFcIrce lasassigned an effectivene~ss remainin1g of 100 percent.

Each coamand center ccontains facilities fc.- inter-

types, radio teletypes, etc. The sp ;_kers..and th,&e handsetsa nor.&lly used t. -simulate voice radio .-.ets such. as pr i.-

ma-y tactical. (Pri'Afar) . M~K (Riunter-Killer) air coxn andso or.. and the nets are arranqed to conform to the players'*ccumunications plans. if umpires in a gam are at-tincg assubordinates to the players, the requiied comazd an-i car.-trol circuzit sa y be set up between the a~ropr i.ate cow-mawd :enters a~nd umpire area. Mdditiorally, selecte-d x-cliceradio d-.mnels say be patched into load speakerz ir theumpire area so that oameamicatictas betm pl~yer - -..r:andscan be broadcast into that area.

Apzr*1e (gam) control int--OMrO-ication (PCII Sys-tmprovIdes for two-way maiations betwe.e- comm~and

cen ters mod usiqr. . This system is ineddchLe fly forgam control p!2poses and for the trabmaes ion of verbalintelligence from waires to players. An £ -?ho¶.s dialttelspbome system provides a link betwee players in tht.

cters and equ ipet maintenance p~vo 1e. andan aditinallink, if *o planned in tbm rules of the game,

betw~ the =W~ires ansd players. Each b n center k socont~s witches for the transmission of digita~l-c,,de5

iftorution. This sysita is called the force operatingstatus £n~iestor (FOSI) system, Sud it provides a cne-wayvisual commicatione link frc each forc. in ;. w-anudowater to the umi~r* area. Owtputs are &tspl ayed in two -digit form below the respective force undmrs at the frontof the umire area. Th umpires can ackmmbedgeu receiptof information received. but canoot transmtit over this oystem.

"t.he qipmamt pr:eviously described.. _:raz:2 _-ente:r _ornta-ns a draftIng table and plot-

" - -'- -- t �£,ae-ge lighted status boards.

e-_ .- z--.. e "olar plotting boaxis, a. a.-: a! ,letiz board.

S.... z. cz- headc&uarters contain much of the-a-c _ as the -ownid centers. They are. however..r±:e: :t the z=and centers, and are usually assigned

- - h~ghest le-ei pIayer--_-ovamders. The ceamand head-. - :c n=z -ontaz4x. S forces but, as shry in - able

-_ eh crntanb t.he controls and indicators for one"-rze z.- their respective aide,' and the -oordirzate cuunterz

-e-ess r.a.ninc meters, and under attack signals-a ie with these force:. The ccmwnnd headquarters dc

- ----- a:.. c-ontrols -r indicators for weapons employ=ent.-al c r'_r.-i :unters. Each contains one azimruth

iante -n3atcr •c-nsole on which is mounted a target_4 !. ane.. These consoles are not fixed in a

7:S ~tion as are those in the cosad centers, but may bee-_!e arycut as desired, or even removed from the roca.

r•re Area

.-he .',ire area contains the equipment required for_or .. ng the employment and interactiom% of opposing

-azrzes, and for controlling the game. At the front oft.e area Is the master clot screen. As noted previously,-s s screen proviuies the unpires wit-h a model of the area

:f •pzraticns use&. in a gme. The moving images cf activeforces are pr-jected on the screen from a bank of o-ticalzro-e:or• •situated high and to the rear. of the room. Thereis one projector for each of the 48 movable forces. Camer,-.sare located above and to one side of the optical projectorrack for taking •olor or black and wtzite transparencies of:he marter plot screen for use d•ring critiqraeP#- on theether side, slide and everhead proj&ztors for displayingweather and other information on thk master plot screen whenind as re<ruired by the umpires.

5-17

- I

The master plot screen is fifteen feet square, andconstructed of plexiglass (Figure 5-5). Behind the screenand its adjacent panels are three plotting tiers and banksof ultraviolet lights. Plotting paper is suspended fromthe rear top of the satreen and tracks of ships and air-craft, symbols, etc. are plotted on the paper with fluo-rescent crayons, yarns, and paper. The plotters work onthe three tiers behind the screen, and wear protectivegoggles to shield their eyes from the ultraviolet lightswhich illuminate the plot. The screen is coated to preventthe ultraviolet rays from entering the umpire area.

Prior to a game, charts of the area of operations witha superimposed NEWS grid are prepared acid issued to theplayers. These represent the maps that would normally beavailable to commanders and their staffs for planning andplotting purposes. Tne original of these charts is photo-

graphed and reproduced as a negative slide. This slide isthen projected from the rear of the umpire area to the masterplot screen, and coastlines, roads, airfields, etc. areplotted on the paper at the rear of the screen.

At same distance to the left of the master plot, theGreen command center numbers and Green force numbers (I to24) are listed on a vertical bank of 24 panels. At theright of each force number is a polar plot indicator. Thisdoughnut shaped indicator illuminates when a polar plot isdisplayed around the force image on the master plot. Below ¶

the force number and polar plot indicator are five bandindicators. These indicate the current altitude, depth, oroperating band of a force, and whether or not it is in the jprocess of ebifting from one band to another. 3

To the right of the panels containing the force numbersiL a vartical plexiglass side panel. This panel is used fordisplaying the names of the real-world forces and weaponsrepresented by the respective NEWS forces and weapons. Thename. are lettered on sheets of paper, one for each NEWSforce, and the sheets are attached, as required, to therear of the plexiglass. If the forces represented by a NEWSforce are changed during a game, a new name sheet is prepared Ito replace .e olf.e

5-18

44ft

IS4

*~ ~ 1inn 9 Ecre . 22U

* ~-- of t~hese cncCurz isJd~~

_en panebe lb ndh--h cfrou,- Indicat.a the stt~us of cach-

EB C and D)) of thýDýco.' :Cy2ctjvu- ~3. ~3 .i2 lluminated, tiLj corespcio-J.

4, ad a'Uable For use by th--ýad cer.ntcr; when it iz not I iiuinat~cd

iý ~Ve. ia., 4'- is either rnot prograimcd

A.~1d th 'ft~de ef the master plot is a

i ~ ~ parallal co=-m of Green force numbers. BelowAr,! is t~84treadout ot the force operating status

~icat70SX) system. As noted- in the section describ-ncý the ~0~~centore, these readouts are activat..ed fromhj cak=iý*.b t~rz and enable the umpires to receive

tc~ita~dt $formation from the players. Next to theP! force nmber3 and digital readouts is a column

~ ~e'idnsia' lights, one for each of the Green weapons.~elicfts-14dti the acquisition of a Green force as

t~tgat by 'wespon~s on t.he Green side, and the firing ofweqz!r if w~eapon A of Green force 7 acquires anyIv the Gren side'. the own side light opposite thepc n t, i~ illIuinatf,4. Sbould that weapon f ire, the>4~~~~~~ _ _~ it lev.Th lrk light signals the

~'I.-rig of C(r~ weapon ?A at a force on its own side...*ýUer, ft 4toea not indicate which Green force was fired

~Etwten* tha colmn of owii side lights, and the columniI* ~a~s p~l -uet light' as a,96.by 24 matrix of ligbýý-

_-I-cv&ias th*e;#at-n-target matrix. iThe 96 rows correspond0 th~e Cne.wr vfapans, the 24 columns identify the twenty-

~tt.f~ee ortazsgts. The ̀ columns are labeled, to,,:.S bcttc-a 4itb the White force numbers, and effectiveneso_ý

~tirz~~-~~tr~for the Whilte forces are located at the

wb- a. Gien 'or-OC3 aodroes aWite force (target)ý' -wapon, ths, light at the intersection of the corre-

~~:inywoup-n raw and target col~mr of the wnapon- target

.1 5-20

matrix is illuminated. If the Grecn weapon is fired, thelight flashes. Should the wean-n score a hit, the effec-tiveness remaining meter of the 'White force indicates areduction in the effec~iveness remaining of that forceKWhether or-not a hit is scored, and the amount of damageresulting from a hit, is determined by the damage computer. K

To the right of the master plot screen is a similararrangement of force numbers, ban6 indicators, weapon-targetmatrix, and so on for the White side.

Below the effectiveness remaining meters on both sides ofthe master plot screen are several umpire information read-out panels. These readout panels jýrmit the umpires to ob-tain, at any time, a readout of the course, speed and altitudeor depth of a selected force, and its speed and altitude ordepth limit8. Readouts are activated manually by an operatorat the plot console.

The plot console is located in the forward part of theumpire area. By means of push button controls, the oper-ator at this console can, as requested by ah umpire, dis-play umpire information readouts, blink any projected forceimage so that it may be identified on the master plot screen,or project a polar plot a&xut any projected force image.The polar plot enables an umpire to obtain the ranges andbearings directly frowm the master, plot. In addition, theoperator can activate the slide projectors which projectweather and other environmental information on the masterplot.

Up to four azimuth range indicators (ARI's) and asso-ciated target information readout cabinets may be installed,'as desired, in the umpire area. These ARI's permit anupire to position uny force in the center of the scope,and to obtain the same scope presentation as seLA by theplayer in a comiand center. An umpire may also select an"umpire look,'" in which case he sees all forces within therange of the scope regardless of whether or not they ap-pear on the player's scope. Add'tionally, an umpire mayset the center of the scope to any desired grid positionwithin the area of operations and obtain a scope presenta-tion centered on that position.

S ,• 5-21

1P;ur ioroblemu control in ter ommu~nicat. ý-n (PCI) con- q*Ussay be set tnp in the umpire area. These are pr~atAbe prObim (9"a)i' control intercom systen, mention( I1

in thbe section on ~n~dcenters. Tha PC""O~nale vn their asgooiatad handsets enable the umpiresto 'IOniiuaticate witb ot1lcr uwzpires in the umpire area, and

idhcmzav centers ond headquarters, ccmmunications room,ýýjol_ room arý- damage cvaputer. They also permit the~u~tkrx to laonit~or inter-player voice radio commnunication60* bropAdaat inter-player transmissionA throughout the

ViOOaroa, and broadcast information from the umpire area~ 4~cd ~teas within tba. NZW5. Additionally, electric

p~Wq~headset MPH)i circuits may be arranged, as 'Needed,-botI4o umpires, 'status boird keepers, control room "personnel,

-44d so on.

Tim 1i-house dial teleplvnne systemn discussed earlierin th-Vction on comewnd centers provides a second system

bTV&*dh the umpires may comtricate with the players.A"~ nostesm also *nables the umpires to colmmunicate with*V~t±~w caftzrol 9,'oup and maintenance areas, and with theWlý* @ac*s of the War Gaming Department. The dial phone4i -can,, if dosired, be patched into offices in o-ther3

M~~of aims Hall.

Th* PC!, UPR, and dial phone systems comprise thecaplate flat of umpire and control group voice conuluni-

caticas circuits andj equipment that were instal"Ied whent*.,iiiWwas 'built. Since that time otber ccommun iv't ions

f acilities have been added for the conduct of task groupýa6tak force level gwans in which umpires, acting~ as sub-

dom"Mates t~o the ?laye -comrnanders, maneuver t~he forces.Thins facilities include circuit" and equipment for thie4w4UtsI~nt, as desired, of additional umpire-to-u.apire

'catigns, and direct voice coimmunications between*1otfi -,Lomir. positions and co~mand centers and head-qw.tr Also, circuits and outlets have been providedI:& rimus sections of the umpire area so that teletyperaxW t.V' gtitors may eavily be bistalled for use duringtwo I Fplect gases.

IftWthe passive information display system (PIDS) isusm4d in it game, two tranwaitting panels are riot up inth,

5-223

A

umpire area. One panel seLves the Green side; the other,the White side. Passive intelligence is generated by theumpires in accordance with the rules of the game and fromdistances and bearings obtained from the master plot screenor the azimuth range indicators, and then transmitted manu-ally to the appropriate forces. If the force operating statusindicator (FOSI) system is employed, two portable controlboxes are placed in the umpire area, one for each side. Theseboxes enable the umpires to acknowledge receipt of playermessages transmitted over the FOSI system.

Three game-time clocks and game-speed indicator unitsare located in the umpire area; one below the master plot

screen and one in each of the two front corners. Above eachof the latter two clocks is a sign which indicates whetherit is dark or daylight in the game area of operations. Thesesigns are controlled manually from the control room. On theright wall is a panel of lights called the detectability andlook indicator panel. This panel consists of 48 se-itiuns,one for each NEWS force. Each section contains a NEWS forcenumbear and, six lights. Three of th,: lights may be used toindicate the types of sensoring devices that may detect the

7 associated N force; the other three, to indicate thetypes of sonsoring devices currently employed by that force.These liqht indicators are changed if, as afcrce shiftsfrom one band (altitude, depth, or operating) to another,there is a change in status. Thus, if a force representinga submari;,e submerg#; below periscope depth, the lightindicating that it is detectable by radar (or visually), isdeactivated. These changes are i.-de manually by personnelin the equipment room.

The umpire area also contains a number of tables.edge-lighted statum boards and similar equipment, This sort ofequipment is reeved in and out of the aima as needed, andis arranged to suit the requirements of a particular game.

Th, umpire cxea wtatus boards are used Eo.r postingtask organi .atins i call-signs, contact reports, anid forrecording evtsnts and tSh rPstu* of aggregated forces, air-fields, and so or. These boards are photographed period-ically. The information contained on the photographs ofthe atast bards is correlated with the information contained

S; u -I~_ _

on the photigraphs of the master plot screen and with the S irecords of the umpires for the post-gamne analyses, reportsand critiques.

• nications, Con~t andl 4 Equipment Rooms

The communications, control, and equipment rooms, asveil as a few other spaces, contain the electronic andmechanical equipment required for the programming, opera-tion, and mainteiance of the NEWS. Only a general knowledgeof the functions performed in these areas is needed byplayers and by officers who are called upon to augment theWar Gaming Staff for the control of a game.

The communications room contains parels and jacks forthe establishment of player voice communication rets priorto the play of a game, and for changing these nets orbreaking cogmiunications between forces during a game. Italso has a panel and jacks for setting up, as required,direct voice coanmuni.-tions cir-cuits between designatedupire positions and rlayei3. The effects of voice communi-catio-s countermeasures can be introduceC into the simulatedvoice radl-_ circuits, and the circuits can be bridged so •- jthat the players on one side may hear some of the trans- -

missions of their opponents. In-game net changes, cominuni-cations interr-ptions, countermeasures, an, bridging aremanuall- injected :-hen and as directed by the cognizant

There are two t"2 recorders in the communication

ro.m. These are used to transmit taped messages or informa-tion over selected circuits, dnd to record communications" desired. In addition, the room contains a teletypewriterwith tape pexforator and reader for transmitting and receivingsrelcted comand center and comrnand headquarters messages, andfacilities for establi,ding one teletype net on each of theapposing Sides.

Th control room contains 48 sets of panels, one setfor eaci NIE force. The sets for the Green side, forces 1 fthrou.qh 24, dre lined up on one side of the rooit; t:ie setsfor the White side, forces 25 through 48, on the other side.Each -et of panels contains two panels arranged one above I

5-24

the other. The bottom panel of each set is the force

characteristics panel. This panel contains an effective-ness remaining meter and switches and other controls fo:zinserting certain operational characteristics and controlsof the real-world force represented by the respective NEWSforce. For example, if NEWS force 7 is used to representa bomber, then its maximum speed and maximum altitude bandare programmed. Also, suitches are arranged so that up tosix items of evaluated intelligence concerning force 7 areprogrammed. Then if force 7 appears as a blip on any azi-muth range indicator, and the blip is probed, the pro-grammed items of intelligence will be displayed on thetarget information panel associated with the azimuth rangeindicator. Additionally, coltrol of force 7 may be givento the players in the command center to which force 7 ispermanently assigned (con~nand center 4 -- see Table 5-1 forthe assignment of NEWS forces to command centers), or theplayers may simply be allowed to read out its course, speedand altitude as displayed on the course and Rpeed dials andaltitude indicators in the commarl cente:. Or, if desired,both controls and indication can b2 denied. In the lattertwo '•ases, force 7 is maneuvered Ln altitude by controlson its chara;cteristics panel, while its course and speedare controlled from its navigation computer.

A navigation computer is associated with each actinvoNEWS force. The navigation computer panel for each forceis located above the corresponding force's characteristicspanel. Each navigation computer -ontains a WWS gridcoordinate counter and grid-p:sition controls. The lotterenables control group persoanel Lu program the initialposition of a force; the former, to read out the pos.itiorof a force in grid coordinates at any instant during agame. Course and speed dials permit the setting cli initialcourse and 5peed, a readout of course and speed during playor if desired, control of course and speed. As in the comr-mand centers, the speed dials are calibrated from 0 to 50,*djalent speed range multipliero of 1, 10, and 100 permitthe setting of speed range scales of 50, 500, or 5000 knota.For exr.-ple, a NMWS force szaLlating a destroyer with a topspeed of 32 knots is assigned a speed multiplier of 1,while a force repreaenhing an aircraft with a maximum speedo0 600 knots is given a speed muitiplier of 100. The 0 s-o 50

5-'4 5

""&.Lir.,rations on, their speed dials then represent 0 to 50and 0 to 5000 knots respectively. However, a player cannotdr-ive either force beyond the maxim,•a speeds programmed intheir characteristics panels, which in this example wouldbe 32 and 600 knots. Additionally, if so programmed inthe characteristics panel, the top speed of a force is re-duced automatically in direct proportion to damage sustained.Thus, if the effectiveness remaining meter of the destroyerdrops to 75 percent. its top speed is automatically reducedtc 24 knots.

At the rear of the control room are switches for set-ting the size of the ar-;a of operations (the ocean scaleswitch), and for setting and changing, as desired, gametime and speed oZ play. There are also facilities forpocitioning the 14 fixed forces and, as in the case ofactive forces, for programming up to six items of intelli-gence. Other equipment includes an azimuth range indicator(and associated target information panel), and two panelsco-.taining position matching switches. These switchesenable control room personnel to slave up to three forceson one side to another force (a master force) on the sameside. Thus, forces representing aircraft may be slaved toa carrier until such time as the aircraft may be launched.

The equipment room is located to the rear of the con-

trol room. This room contains the units for programmingthe rates o± ascent and descent for NEWS forces that areused to represent aircraft cr submarines. There is one ofthese units for each NEWS force. When a NEWS force, sayforce number 7, is used as an aircraft, eight time delaycomponents are inserted in the ascent and descent unit.Than the realistic times required for that particular typeof aircraft to climb from band one to band two, from twoto three, etc., are inserted in four delay components; thetimes required to descend from band five to band four, andso on, in the other four units.

Across from the ascent and descent units ark thedetectability and look panels, one panel for each force.3ach panel contains dials and switches for programming itsrespective force with that force's real-world susceptibilityto detaction by specific types of sensoring devices. For

5-26

:nstance, if forr-ce 7 represents an aircraft, it is 3U.-ccptibie to detection by radar, but not by sonar. Thischaracteristic is caLled the "detectabi]ity" of thatforce . Each forc, paniel also contains the dials andswitches for programming the capabilities of t,,, £crnsorisystems or the real-world force it reptresents.characteristic is called "Look." As an aircraft, forcethen would be programmed with a radar look, but no sonarlook.

In order to assign detectability and look characteristics to a NEWS force, three separate and distinct elec-tronic detectability and look circuits are included in t0NEWS. These are referred to as busses, A, B and C. Ifforce, say a suhmar-ne, is assigned a sonar detectabilition bus C, then only forces with a look in this bus candetect the submarine. The detection and look capabilitieand values for each bus are prcgrammed as a function ofaltitude (depth, or operating) band. For instance, if asubmarine is operating on the sariface, it can be detectedby a force with a radar or visual look capability, and inturn can detect aircraft and ships. If a playez or amember of the control group causes the submarine to divebelow periscope depth by shifting depth bands, then thesubmarine's detectability and look capabilities arechanged *automatically, The submarine can no longer bedetected by radar or visual means, nor can it see forcesrepresenting airc'raft. However, it can be detected byforces with a sonar capability, and detect surface andsubsurface forces with its own sonar equipment.

Below the detectability and look panels for the 48active NEWS forces are detectability panels for the 14fixed forces. The dials and switches on these panels per-mit the assignment of detectability characteristics andvalues to the fixed forces. Adjacent to the fixed forcedetectability and look panels is an array of switches.These switches may be used to signal the umpires the cur-rent detectability and look status of the forces in termsof programmed busses. Thus, if a force representing asubmarine is detectable and has a look in busses A and B,this information may be displayed on the detectability andlook panel in the umpire area. Wfhen the force shifts to

5-27

another band which has a programmed detectability and look, 4Vsay in bus C only, then the corresponding switches aremanually activated to display this information in theumpire aree.

The NEWS damage computer is also located in the equip- jment room. This computer is described briefly in the nextsection.

On the third floor, in the areas to the rear of thecommand centers, are facilities for programming the ratesof fire of each of the four NEWS weapons associated witheach NEWS force. In addition, there is sorme equipment forinserting, under very limited conditions, the time of flightor running times of such weapons as missiles and torpedoes.These various facilities are part of the weapon and damage

* i* computer subsystem.

For remote-play games, a cryptographic room has beenestablished on the first floor. This room contains facil-ities for encoding and decoding six full duplex (simultan-eous transmit anM receive) circuits. These circuits areconnected to commercial landline telephone circuits asneeded for a remote-play game and, by secure lines, to out-lets in the umpire area. Six full duplex teletypes andthkee tape factories (facilities for cutting or reproducingpaper tapes) are available. The teletypes are usually usedto transmit tapes produced by the tape factory, and to re-ceive printed and tape copies. However, keyboard trans-missions may be sent if desired.

The NEWS Damage CoMputer

The damage computer is the major iomponent of thewe-apon and damage computer subsystem,. As noted previously,other parts of this subsystem such as w!apons employmentlights, weapon-target matrix, and effectiveness remainingmeters are locatnd in the umpire ar-•mt and component! suchas weapons controls, salvos remaining counters, under.attack sigrals, effectiveners remaining metei6, and rat-.of fire controls are located in or to the rear of th.'ctwnmand centers.

5-28 -S

Sa l

!r

on the photoggrap),s of the master plot screen and with therecords of the umpires for the post-game analyses, reportsand critiques.

Coeunicetions. Control, .and Eginent Rooms

The communications, control, and equipment rooms, aswll as a few other spaces, contain the electronic andmechanical equipment required for the programming, opera-tion, and mainteaiance of the NEWS. Only a general knowledgeof the functions performed irs these areas is needed byplayers and bI- officers who are called upon to augment theWar Gaminog Staff for the control of a game.

The comuunications room contains panels and jacks forthe establishment of player voice communication nets priorto the play of a game, and for changing these nets orbreakinq commiunications between forces during a game. Italso has a panel and jacks for setting up, as required,direct voice conm'u.-.tions circuits between designatedwnire positions and Yiayeis. The effects of voice communi-catio-s countermeasures can be introduceC into the simulatedvoice radi. circuits, and the circuits can be bridged sothat the players on one side may hear some of the trans-miscions of their opponents. In-game net changes, communi-cations interrm-ptions, countermeasures, anc bridging aremanually injected when and as directed by che cognizant

There are two tape recorders i1n the communicationsroos'. These are used to transmit taped messages or informa-tion over selected circuits, dnd to record communicationsto desired. In addition, the room contains a teletypewriterwith tape pe-iforator and reader for transmitting and receivingswlected comand center and conmmand headquarters messages, andfacilities for establi,1ing one teletype net on each of theO$o~posnq sides.

The control room contains 48 sets of panels, one setfor each H force. The sets for the Green side, forces 1throu. 24, care lined up on one side of the roor,; the setsfor he t ?-ite side, forces 25 through 48, on the other side.

Each s&et of panels contains two panels arranged one above

5-24

_____- ___,,. __.... •_.....__- -

C,!

Damage to a NEWS force (as reflucted in its effec-4 tiveness remaLning meters) can, if the computer is so

programmed, result in a reduction in its maximum speed,or a reduction in its offensive capability, or boch.

If a player on the Green side should acquire and fireat a Green force, this information is displayed en the ownside lights in the umpire area. The Green weapon will ex-pend ammunition, but it cannot inflict darý;age because thedamage computer does not assess interactions between Greenweapons and Green forces, or between White weapons andWhite forces. In these situations the target force doesnot receive an under attack signal.

Figure -- - '"i:E DAMAGE COMYPUTER

3 -)

'K-3

A• damace computer console enables its opei-&tors tomonitor the opermfions of the computer, and modify, asdirected by the umpires, stured weapon and %.rget data,id the results Df automatically assessed damage. Theconsoic contains m weapon-tarý.t matrix similar to thatin the uiipire area, and limited facilities for the acqui-sition of forces and the firing of weapons.

System Capabilities

The subsystems and associated equipment and spacesof the NEWS provide the means for the conduct of two-sidedcontinuous-time machine games in which players maneuvcforct-, fire weapons, and so cn. The system eliminatesthe need for players -taking weove-s for stated periods oftime, or for back tracking if a critical situation developsin the middle of a move. Deteczions are made automatically;concomitant intelligence is available immediately. Weaponscan be fired by simply pressing keys. Damage assessment isautomatic, and practically instantaneous. Umpires are re-lieved of many tedious and time-consuming details; are freeto watch the larger picture, to inject their professionaljudgment into the game. Time may be Tpeeded to two orfour times real-world time when forces are jockeying forposition, and slowed when interactions develop. A gamemay be stopped at any time, started again when convenient,or it may be stopped and then continued i. a ;-waller areaof operations.

In certain instances N-BWS forces can be used to rep-resent an aggregation of ships or aircraft. - -. -rcemay be used to simulate a variety of real-world forces•~ the conduct of a single game. Force 7, for iiA..Aance,

might be used to represent a single bomber on an armaedreconnaissance mission in one part of a game, aiid a flightu: fo• bombers on a strike misbion in another part of the•ame. In each case it would be assigned the appropriatechar'cteristics, weapons, and tcget type.

"While the NMWS was designed for the conduct of two-sided machine games of the type described above, it isreadily adaptable to one-sided games. In such a game theuMpires, fro their vantage point in the umpire area, end

5-31

4

#SWthe display facilities, controls and commaunicationsA their disposal, can provide the required amount and de-M d O of oosition to meet the purpose of the game. Thm

W 4t their disposal can be maneuvered by controlginup personnel stat'.:ed in comnand ceiacers or in thedootxol roo. Additionally, the control room and communi-wst•i~ facilft!is pro:..e the means for the conduct of

St ome or two-sided gies in which the umpires act asl~a echelon camanders. In these games the umpiresmaneuver the forcns In response to the orders of player-mapeliors. The players may be stationed in th'- NEWS com-NOWd ce•naer or in their own operations control centers orlleg plots.

The NM cceand headquarters and centers, plottingand display devices, game clock, and comnunications netsalso provide excellent facilities for the conduct of

AS &&sgued, the 3315 is capable of representing only*i 01:"S of eaes of operations, and simulating 48 forces,

M M e sie and an equal nuAber on the other. Game time•be oe, two #= • our time real time, but changes in

• •tim e fft only the borizontal component of the speed: force. It does not affect turning rates, programmedw.e of aaamt and dsacent, or proqra d firing rates.Pt instao-g if an aircraft requires six minutes of realSm to clim frm band - to 3 at a game speed of one, it"xeqir • •n eual xmnut of real world time (or twenty-four"aiWte. of �i tim) to make that same climb if the gameSpowd' i itcbed to four.

- iyu the siAe of an area of opexttions can be changedsin.a change of thic nature requires the doter-ofi m Od positions for all forces, and the re-

of orew. in term of grid coordinates. if

*6409 so thet a tm' miaster plot car-- be drawn.

-WW OW &6W aot autmatically track or reccrd theLOAM _ftA St.atii & ". It do" u3t keep a taly

VA

C) of the number of operational aircraft at an airfield oron board a carrier, or contain any facilities (exceptstatus boards) for maintaining such records. With theexception of ammunition (salvo remaining) counters, theNEWS does not contain any facilities for simuluting orrecording fuel consumption or other logistic factors andconstraints.

SThe damage computer calculates hit probabilities asa function of rcnge only. Target angles are not consid-ered, or whether• or not a weapon can be brought to bear.In order for damage to be assessed, a hit must be obtained.Therefore, the computer cannot assess the effects of anuclear weapcr detonating at a distance from a ship, orthe effects of - nar miss by a conventional bomb. Exceptin a very few cases, the time of flight of a long range ora relatively slow speed weapon cannot be simulated. If aweapon is fired at a force on its own side, the umpiresmust determine which force was fired at, and then assessthp res-lts either by rules or pi.ýfessional judgment.

Scalirq Factors and Other Gimmicks

The inherent capabilities of the NEWS are enhanced andsome of its limitations minimized by scaling factors, the"-se of equipment for other than its intended purpose, andmanual ;aming techniques.

Scaling factors are generally used when it is desiredto simulate an area of operations that is different in sizefrom any of the four evailable selections. The scalingfactcrs may be applied to the speed dials, and to the avuil-able game speeds and speed multipliers. In the first in-stance, overlays calibrated from 0 to 60 might be placndover the norm:il 0 to 50 scale on the speed dials. Thenwith an ocean scale switch setting of 1.000, an area ofoperations cf 1200 on a side is obtained. Using the secondm iethod a game speed of two may be scaled to read one, thusproviding a 500 mile area of operationc with a 1000 mileocean scale switch setting. If the speed rmultipliers of10 and 100 are chanqed to read 1 and 10 respectively, thena 1000 mile ocean scale setting results in a 100 mile areaof operat1o~n&. Various combinations of scaling factors may

5-33

7

.4o be used. For instance, a speed dial scaling of 0 to 60 S"• • A *d vi#.h a game speed scaling of two to one, and ano• •scale vetting of 1000, results in a 600 mile area of

Whenever one of the four available ocean areas isSOA, d, the scales on the azimuth range indicators areOWAM1 accordingly. Thus, if by means of speed dialasali*, a. 1000 mile area of operations is scaled to

represezt a 1200 mile area, the scales on the azimuthrange indicators are changed from their design calibrationC4,20, 160, 80, 40, 20, and 8 miles to read 384, 192, 96,4* 24, and 9.6 miles.

Equipment has been added to drive the NEWS game clockat five and ten times its dezigned speed. This equipmentenables games to be conducted at 5, 10, 20, and 40 timesreal tift. In order to employ a game speed of 5, the clockspee dwitch is set to four, and the speed dials are scaledto 0.8 their normil range. If it is desired to switch gameOp•ee& to 4, 2 or 1, the equipment which drives the NEWScl&d at a speed of five is disconnected, the clock speedswItch set at the desired game speed, and the scaled speeddials rmoved or ignored. Due to the need to use twosedials in case of game speed changes, game speeds offive times real time are usually employed when the forcesawe maneuvered by control group personnel.

To _!'tuct games at 10, 20, and 40 times real time,speed multipjier scaling is used. For instance, if ayme is proceeding at a clock speed of one, and the deci-6ion is aatd to shift to a speed of ten, then the speedmiitpliers on the navigation computers are manuallyshifted to the next higher position. The speed multiplierof 100, therefore, cannot be used at clock speeds of 1, 2,and 4* but nut be reserved for shifta of 10, 20, and 40# spesods n practice, th6 game speed of 10 is che

vw~wi *" I. ma speed.

-. ile the weapo and daage computer subsystem was• xt4 for, Ow simulation of the employment of weapons

, it WA, ov occasion, been Q-Vloyod for simulatingS1 sao Lqtures. In this case the effectiveness remaining

5-34

_.... ... _-_5-34__ __________________

43 meters show fuel states. In some instances NEWS weaponshave been used to simulate fighter aircraft. The playerspressed the appropriate acquisition key to vector afighter against an incoming raid and then, after a suit-able time delay, the firing key. Another method merelyrequires the use of the firing key, in which case the timedelay is programmed. In either case, the overall bomberkill probability is programmed, and the damage computerassesses the interaction.

Whenever NEWS components are used for functions thatdiffer from their normal or designed functions, theiremployment is explained in the rules of the game.

Manual Techniques

The machine gaming capabilities of the NEWS are oftensupplemented by a variety of manual gaming techiiiques. Ingeneral, the higher the command levels represented by theplayers, the greater the requirement for manual techniques.

Manual methods are used when forces, either before orS) during a game, are outside the area of operations selected

for NEWS play. For instance, if the NEWS area of opera-tions is an area 1200 miles square, and at the beginningof the qame a submarine is proceeding toward this area,then that submarine is plotted -i- in & manual game. Whenthe subrimarine reaches the edge of the NEWS area of opera-tions, it is then programmed as an active NEWS force. Ina similar manner, if a forcP proceeds outside of the NEWSarea of operations, it is deactivated and played as in amanual game.

For a game in which forces are or may be expected tomove outside the NEWS area of operations, a game chart isprepared which encompasses a suitably sized area. TheNEWS grid (0000 to 4000 EW; OCC3 to 4000 NS) is superim-posed on that portion of the chart which is displayed onthe maste, plot screen, and then extended as necessary toinclude the remainder of the chart. This provides a commongrid for both NIWS and manual play.

5-35

I.

If a NEWS force is used to represent an aggregationof ships such as a carrier striking force, then diagramsof the dispositions which may be used by that force arerequited by the umpires as they would be in a manual game.

When there is an insufficient number of active NEWSforces to simulate the forces involved in a game, thensome forces are represented by manual methods. Forces sosimulated may include patrol aircraft flying search pat-terns, destroyers on antisubmarine patrol stations, logisticsupport units, airfields, shore installations, ground units,and so on. Search tracks of aircraft are drawn on trans-parencies and projected, as needed, from the rear of theumpire area; other forces are represented by images andsymbols pasted on the rear of the master plot. Groundforces are usually played on ipographical maps.

Forces depicted by manual means, and employed in con-junction with active NEWS forces, are sometimes referredto as "constructive" forces. For the most part, they areha.ndled as they would 'e in a manual game.

The techniques of manual war gaming are used to eval-ilate interactions betwcen NWS and constructive forces, 'tndfor detections and damage assessment when the azimuth rangeinFuicators and damage computer are not used. Manual methodsar.; also used to determine aircraft- aborts, to record thextatus of airfields, aircraft dowi times, and the like, andr-o record aircraft availability, st'tus of runways, fuelstates, and so on.

IMBe 2f IMW GA~MAD

Two general types of JEWS games are played: curric-ulum gmes and Fleet games. The formor are educational;the latter, analytical in nature, in that they are usuallyconducted ) provide the players with infcrmation that isdirectly applicable to their real-world jobs.

Cu x t educational games are conducted fc'- thetwo res. A dchools and the Naval Coimnand Course Depart-ment of the War College, and for the Naval Destroyer School.They have alao been played to support the Lurriculum of the

5-36

444

S) Reserve Officera' Command and Staff Course, an annual two-week course conducLed by the School of Naval Command andStaff of the College.

Fleet games are conducted for Fleet Commands who want Ito rehearse scheduied at-sea exercises, examine contingencyplans, "try-out" :perational concepts, etc., by means ofNEWS gaming. Tht facilities of the NEWS and the servic'sof personnel of the War Gaming Department are available forsuch Fleet games from the first of July to tl., end ofDecember of each year, and at such other times as may bedetermined by the President of the Naval War Col.•e.

Curriculum games

War College curriculum games are the final phase of acomplex operations or planning problem. They providestudents with the only possible means of completing thelast phase of the military planninq process, i.e., theexecution of their plan,.

There are three general types of curriculum games.) These are the unit-level game, the task-group or task-force-level game, and the strategic or national-level game. Thelevels refer to the lowest player command-levels in agame. For example, in a unit level game some of the playersact as com anding officars of ships.

The first College curriculum games which were conductedon the NEWS involved, for the most part, task group plans.Players acted as task group commanders and staffs and asthe commanding officers and staffs of ships, submarines,and aircraft (or flights of aircraft). From their flaqplots (co'nand centers), task group commanders issuedorders and received reports over planned communicationsnets. Commanding officers of ships and aircraft, stationedir' command centers (as illustrated in Figure 5-7), maneuveredth.ir shios and submarines aiid aircraft, m'.e detections ontheir scopes (azimuth range indicators), maintained plots,acquired enemy targets, fired weapons, sustained damage,and responded and reported to *-heir game superiors. Thesubsystems of the NEWS, in accordance with prourammed data,deternin.ed if and when ietections were made, disseminated

5-37

T! REPRODUCIMX•

A NEWS COMMAND CENT'R

A NEWS COMMAND CENTER

DURING THE PLAY OF A UNIT-LEVEL GAME

Figure 5-7

5-38

iqenlce, eva luated i ntezact ions and assessed damageTY, ..m._res monitored comminunications and interactions,ifnitiatod in-game progrwaming, and compiled informationfor the critique.

Thcsýý" gam.es were machine games. They e.'Acd allo0 t- subsystems of the NEWS: maneuver and dispiay,w.,ec'apon and damage computer, and communications. Since thtqgunes utilized all cf the NEWS facilities, relatively fewumpires were required. The umpires were usually stationecat the locations shown in Figure 5-8.

One or more unit-level games were conducted annuallyin support of the College curriculum from 1958 to 1964.Similar games were also conducted for the reserve officersof the Command and Staff Course during the latter part ofthis pericd.

In 1962 a one-sided unit-level machine game was de-vised for the students of the U.S. Naval Destroyer School..A number of these games have been played annually sincethat time. They are conducted in support of the curriculuiof that school.

Soon after the first unit-level games were conductedon the NEWS, task-group-levc2 games were designed andplayed in support, of the College curriculum. In thesegames the lowest player-command level was at the taskgroup level; the highest extended to the Fleet and Jointand Combined Task Force levels.

The initial task-group-level games utilized all oftha facilities of the simulator. In most cases the NEWSforces were used to simulate task groups rather thanindividual units. The NEWS forces representing taskgroups were controlled by their respective group com-manders and staffs. Detectability and look values wereprogrammed to simulatc, as closely as possible, the com-posite capabilities of the task groups; weapons were pro-grammed to represent their total offensive capabilityagainst various types of targets. The effectivenessremaining meters represented the total life of a groupwith each ship contributing to the total life in accordance

5-39

-NOT PEPRODUCIBLEi' II

I

oI

I

THE NE-'S UMPIRE AREA

DURING THE PLAY OF A UNIT-LEVEL GAME

Figur.t 5-8

5-_40

Swith a predetermined scale of relative life values. Whena force was damaged and its effectiveness remaining meterdropped, it was up to the umpirem to translate this lossof effectiveness into terms of specific ships sunk ordamaged, and so on. In order to do this, the umpiresneeded formation diagrams of the task groups which wererepresented by the moving images on the master plot screen..

In addition to formation diagrams, other techniquesof manual gaming were introduced to handle the numbers andvariety of forces that were involved in task-group-level

games. The manual techniques included the projection ofaircraft search tracks, the use of paste-on images to rep-resent forces, supplementary plotting and evaluation methodr,and so forth.

From these manual-machine games, a more realistic typeof task-group-level rlay evolved, one that places greaterreliance on the umpires, less on the machine. With theexception of the School of Naval Warfare Strategic Game,

this type of gaming is now used for all War College curric-ulum games conducted on the NEWS.

The current concept is based upon the realistic notionth-at task group commanders and their staffs do not driveshlips and aircraft; their subordinates do. Hence, for thislevel of play, the umpires act as the subordinates. Theplayers, stationed in simulated flag plot3 and operationscontrol c.nters, (command headquarters and centers), exer-zise command and control of their forces in the same manneras they do in the real world.

For the conduct of such games, umpires and other con-trol group personnel are formed into modules. Each mod-ule contains the people and equipment needed to suppoita particular task group commander, or to carry out somespecific function in the game, e.g., providr men:chantshipping, trawler, commercial air, and other inputs.

The module personnel su-porting a olayer-cco.mrander anidhis stfrf act as the commanding officecs cf _... of Lhe shipsand aircraft under the player's operational control. If theplayer orders a search, the module conducts that search.

5-41

4.

If, during the course of the search, an aircraft gains ac ontact, this intelligence is reported to the player inthe same manner as it would be if the contact were madeby an actual aircraft at sea.

The players also receive orders and intelligence fromtheir player-seniors and information from adjacent player-commads in accordance with their emission control (EMCON)policy and communications plans.

The umpires who act as subordinate commanders have attheir disposal a number of NEWS forces which are programmedwith certain ship, aircraft, and submarine characteristics.These forces are used as needed during a game. For instance,NEWS force 7 might be programmed as an aircraft. When asearch is ordered, an umoire cnecks to determine if an air-craft is available and then, if it aborts. If ar aircraftis operational and does not abort, the umpire contacts thecontrol room and orders forc'e 7 activated and st,-ted onits mission. As all forces are controlled by the umpires,there in usually no r,'ticular requirement for assigningall Gree NiWS forces to the Cree.r side, and all White tothe White side. ThMs, torce 7 (a Green NEWS force) mightbe employed as a White aircraft. f

Because in this type of game the players do not maneuverforces and fire weapcns, they do not use the force motion andweapons controls. (The azimuth range indicators, probes, andtarget information panels are used in some games.) However,as in flag plots at sea or in operations control centers

ashore, the players use communication nets and plotting facil-ities. If required, or desirable, the spaces and fa-ilitiesof two or more command centers may be combined by means ofthe intercznnecting doors to form a larger flag plot or oper- Jationi control center.

The -roblem control intercommunications consoles areremoved £rom the umpire area. Direct voice communicationsnets are established bet'ieen the supporting modules andplayers. Other voice nets are provided to link the modules,the control room, the status board writers, and the plottersbehind the master plo.t screen. If the azimuth range indicatorsand the target infortiation readout cabinets are not required,

5-42

>I

they are removed, and the spaces used for other purposes.

In addition to acting as subordinates to player-suDeriors,members cf the modules aiso perform umpiring duties. For themost part they determine if and when contacts and other inter-actions occur by utilizing the information portrayed on themaster plot screen and on supplementary plots and statusboards, and by inter-module coordination. Each module main-tains its own status boards. These boards, in conjunctionwith the master plot, display the true status of forces andcontacts. When applicable, they also indicate the situationas it is known to, or evaluated by, the players. For example,antisubmarine forces are working over a false contact. Thetask group commander is receiving periodic reports from theunits on the scene. His current evaluation is: "probablesubmarine." The true nature of the contact as well as theplayer's evaluation is displayed on the appropriate statusboarl.

Damage assessments are made in accordance with the semi-rigid method and, in r.iost cases, are subject to override bythe game director. The damage computer is rarely used and,) when it is, targets are acquired and weapons fired from thedamage computer console. Usually, damage is assessed by amodule which is set up for this purpose. Members of thisgroup, known as roving assessors, collect the pertinentinformation from the cognizant modules. For instance, in adestroyer ",--sus a submarine interaction, they obtý-An theactions and reaction of the control group personnel actingas their respective commanding officers. The interaction isasse&sed at the damage assessment module, ane the outcometransmitted to the umpire-commanding officers by the rovingassessors. The results are then transmitted verbally to theplayers in the same terms and in the same manner as theywould be transmitted by commanding officers in the real world.

The director of the game acts as all echelons of com-mand above the senior player-commandeks. A module (usuallycallied the lateral inruts module) acts ag all adjacent andparallel commands that are not played in the game. Thismodule also provides any other inputs that may Jffect theplay of the game but are not under the direct cognizance ofthe players, and hence cannot be handled by the player-

5-43

WNW7-

Y'l"portig modules. IV, for example, in the situation*Emtlated, merchant vessels a"e steaming through the areaaf 'eations, then the lateral inputs module injects

xchcant ship traffic and acts as the skippers of these

These manual-machine task-group-level games, obviously,Eqoufe larger control groups than those needed for machineys. While the size and arrangement of the control group"nqtrally varies fror game to - Figure 5-9 illustratesa fairly typical control group. This figure shows the con-trdl group for 4C-65, a qame conducted for the School ofNaval Command and Staff in June of 1965. This game wasplayed initially as a manual game, and the original hand-played version is described ii Chapter IV in the sectiontitled Command and Staff Department Manual Game.

As mentioned at the bc.linning of ttdis section oncurriculmia games, the thira type of curriculum game thatis conducted in the NEVS is a national-level military-political game. This is a manual game that uses the playerand umpire spaceu and the communications facilities of the 77131. It is described bLiefly in Chapter IV in tle s-ction,The School of Naval Warfare Strategic Game.

Approximately seventy College curriculum games wereconducted in the NEWS from 1958 through 1965. Figure 5-10contains a list of the curriculum games which were conductedduring 1964 and 1965.

Traditionally, War College curriculum games have beentwo-sided. However, as a result of experience gained in one-sided Fleet games and because the situation appeared to lenditaelf tc this type of play, a onr-sided curriculum game wasdevi•ed and conducted in 1963. A similar game, 2F-64, anUScort-of-Convoy Game was played in 1964, and two one-sidedgomes wore conducted in 1964, lF and lNW. Three one-sidedgmes are planned for 1966, one fc- the Naval Command CourseDepartment and one for each of the two schools of the College. j

When a one-sided game is played, an opposition module isadded to the control group organization. The personnel inthis module control all opposition forces and, when possible,

5-44

'In

IMI

0

>4I

Spomoxing School or Type of OperationsA:.!a•'a D�.. .•a�n Gam* Simulated by Friendly Side

1* 3c~a Cow=M Course IF-64 Naval Surface

*Ps MNovel Ceimund Course 2F-64 Escort of Convoy

C4wand and Staff 2C-64 Carrier Striking Fnrce.

90*1 gave fare SWG Political-Military

SI aa O a S Itaff 3C-64 Antisubmarine

'x" 41 Commud Couse 4F-64 Joint and Combined

1 -4 Jw Cma and taff 4C-64 Joint and Combined

2- 3 fob Navel Coimmnd Course lP-65 Escort of Convoy

1 "t Naval Commnd sad Staff 2C-65 Carrie, Striking Force-.2 AW)

-3 Apr Naval Vazare SWG Political-Military

V40 Apr) Naval Camrnd and Staff 3C-65 Antisubmarine

11-13 Nay Nve. COAd Course 3F-65 Joint and Combined

19-21 *7y Naval Warfre 1NW-65 Surveillance andQuarantine

A- j ama Naval Commnd and Staff 4C-65 Joint and Combined

I'

*&a Lndctriaatiou V me conducted for students of the Naval Comund Course

an 7 Feruary, 1*A. Two voluntary participation antisubmsrine warfare gamsnote causated bf soidonts of the Naval Warfare Course on 25 May, 1964; andtw eanfiw strr " f£or" Same on 26 May, 1964.

MAhL V1* WUJNI2 CWUC1XLUM CAMS COW!-ICTKD IN THE NEWS1,964-1965I

Figure 5-10

5-46

_____ ____ _.__

employ known opposition tactics. The opposition forces.weapons, and sznsors are assigned characteristics whichconform trý the most recent intellicrence est 4 m.tes.

Fleet Games

It is convenient to classify Fleet games into twoca..egories: local play and remote play. Local-play gamesare similar to curriculum games in that the players occupythe command headquarters and command centers in the NEWS.For remote play, however, the players are stationed intheir own real-world command and control spaces, and playthe game with the facilities and personnel that are nozmallyavailable in the situations simulated.

Both local-play and remote-play games are one-sided.The opposition is planned and executed by officers of theWar G&ming Department with the assistance and advice ot thesponsoring Fleet Command, and often with the aid of otherCommands. For example, for an antisubmarine warfare game,Rubmarine commanding officers might be ordered to the Collegein order to provide the most real~qtic opposition.

As in the case of curriculum games, local-play Fleetgames have been conducted at both the unit and task grouplevel6, with the majority played at the latter level. Thesegames employ techniques similar 'o those used in curriculumgames.

For icmote-play games "secure" land-line communications,or combination land-line radio-links are established betweenthe participating Fleet' Comands and the NEWS. Additionally,"unsecure" Ltelephone circuits are also used for starting andstopping the game, and for unclassified communications.

The players are furnished game clocks. These areportable clocks which can function at the various NEWSgame speeds. They can be connected with th i'.WS by, leaso |lines, or operated by local power soir_-es (.0 -. ,zle, 315.volt AC). In the latter case the c!ocks 9 synchd- I zedwith the NEWS game clock, started and anopped. d c]•r-'

speeds set in accordance with te•lephc-ned ing lr;uctiotiq frovthe game director in the NEWS.

1 -7I

4.

Rete-play games are conducted at the task-group andhigim levels. Except that the players are not in commandenters in the NEWS, these games are conducted in the samen mner as the curriculum task-group-level games described

in the preceding section. The players eceive intelligencein the same manner and in the same format as in a real-lifemmgeay or war-time situation; the control group in the

6 drives the shirs and aircraft, and report and respondto their player-superiors in the same manner as reaL- -orldship and aircraft commanders. From the players' viewpointthere is only one ditference between the game situation andthe real situation: in the letter case, many circuits areused: in the game, the many circuits are simulated by one.&*mver, at the command levels involved, this diminution incommunications nets has not, apparently, degraded the qual-ity of remote simulations; for the post-game comments ofparticipating Commanders have invariably emphasized .erealism of the play.

As in curriculum and local-play Fleet ga'-ýes, remote-play gaes are conducted during normal working hours. But,as in the other games, accelerated game speeds keeb thegme clock up to and usually ahead of th2 real-wozld clock.For exampla, CASUSTREX 1-64 was played at game speeds vary-izg from ,ne to ten times normal clock speeds, an- five andone-half days of game play were conducted in four normal days.

Thirty-four Fleet games were o-ondiicted in the NEWSdaring the 19t8-1965 period. Figvre 5-11 lists the 1964and 165 games. This figure shows the sponsc-ing Fleetcomiand. Host of these games also included participatingsubordinate commands. Thus, thi: personnel of ten operationcontrol centers or wwrgency d-'inse control stations partic-ipated in CkNr.TREX 1-64; in V'iBNhWS 1-65, coirmanders andstaffs of such commands a. Arr.i*bious Group Two, Carr erDivision Eighteen, and Cria:*r-Destroyer Flotilla -Twoc.

Like a local-play gave, a rfaote-play g9;ue provides aFleet Qowaander and his tta-f with an opportunity to executehis war plan with planned wartime forces and aqainst ahighly likely wartime opposition. But a remote-play gamenoffers orher advantages. It exercises operations controlcenter personnol, and enables a corimand&r to check and

5.-4.

IL Type of Op46ratiousSponsoring Fleet Sib~lated

Date Command - . by Frindly Side

6 Mar COMSUBDEVGFU TWO No name assigned Antisubmarine

(Commander Submarine Development Group Two)

27-29 Jul COMSECONDFLT Teamwork Carrier S trkinSI Force

(Commander U.S. Second Fleet)

31 Aug ) COMPHIBLANT I PHIBNEWS 1-64* Amphibious- 3 Sep I (Movement Phase)

(Commander Amphibious Forces,U.S. Atiantic Fleet)

12-15 Oct COMASWFORILANT NEWSBhX 1-64* Ant isubmarineWarfare Barrier

ýCommander Ancisubmarlnr Forcea,U.S. Atlantic Fleet)

7-11 Dec COMASWFORLANT and CANUSTREX 1-64* Escort of ConvoyCANCOMARLANT and Antisubmarine

Warfare(Commander Antisubmarine Forces,U.S. Atlantic Fleet and CanAdian Comander"Maritime Forces, Atlantic)

13-17 Sep C9..ASWFORPAC COLD TIDINGS I* AntieubmarineI Warfare(Commander Antisubmarine Forces,

U.S. Pacif'.c Fleet) I

5- ' Oct C)MASWFORLAYNT | XSBEX 1-65* 1 Ant.subms-IneWa.ar- Barrier

(Commander 4ntisubarirne Forces,U.S. Atlantic Fleet)

io VO-,v COMHIBLA'T PHIBNEWS 1-65 A~phibiousI I (CVposed Sortie,Commnder &mphibious Forces, -1o-vement i'.h'se,U.S. Atlantic Fleet) Oterationo in

Objective Area)

*-emcte-Play -__ ___

FLEET WAR CA.AŽS I:" THf N'VS" 964- 1965

Fiur D-ii jIi

-,

m tocominad aiS control procedures. it minimizes the Sm" br t-rav& futee; keeps the greater part of the staff

"M on the tars." For these reasons the remote-play gameJA becix increasingly popular. Of the eight Fleet gamesamsducted during 1964 and 1965, five were remote-play games.

Emi-m wAn Malms

U •gs are usually designed (and programmed) bygIMng temss of War Gamino Department officers. • team*l@@*ets of one or more officers from each of the threebranches of the Operation, Evaluation and Research (OER)DiViion of that Department. As shown I.n Figure 5-1 tnethree branches of the OZR Division are: Gaming Development,Operatxons ai..4 Programming, and Evaluation and Research.

The Destroyer School Game is a rela rely simple game.It is conducted one day each quartnr, and three games areplaed each day in order that the ztudentn mz,. Lotatepositions. Every game played uses the same area 3f coera-time, forces, coaLnd structure, communications, and soforth. Therefore tVe saue rules and programming forms canbe used over and over again. This is seldom true of other NEWSgqis. War College curriculum games are usually sufficientlydifferent from year to yeaT to r-quire different (or at leastupdated) rules. Fleet games are i- the same zategcr-r. Eachrequires new or updated rules, programminq forms, and so o".

Wbenever a War College operations problem, planningprobli or planning exercise culminates in a Nwt. war qag:,*the coqnizart War Gaming Department gaming tea-, maintainsliaison with the sponso-ing school or department d-iri-q theplanning for and the wri-ing of the directivE or syl .ý'us.The directive or syllabus describes the general situation,the special situations, and the planniny requirements.

*The one exception is Lthe School of Nival Warfare'rStrategic War Game. This game is conducted by that ýchool..:-4 Rngin**ring and Maint-nance Division of the War Gamir'gDepartment provide: support and coimnunications pers.•nnelat requested.

The students involved are divided into committees or staflas appropriate, and issued the pertinent instructions andinformation. They determine their missions, list and com-pare possible courses of action, and prepare plans.

As the students develop their concepts and write theJplans, members of the gaming team monitor their progress,select an area of operations for the NEWS master plot, antassist the officers conducting the problem or exercise inthe selection of the student plans to be gamed and theassignment of students to player staffs and the control gi '

Concurrently with its monitoring and advisory duties,the gaming tean develops a concept of play. It devises acontrol group organization tailored to the concept of plaland the player-planned cownniand structure. The team plansthe organization of player-supporting and other modules, iassigns personnel to the various control group billets. 3designs game control communications nets, status boards,game forms, assigns NEWS forces and command centers, andcompiles the characteristics of forces and weapons. Itinitiates requests for charts, maps, slides, and othergraphic materials needed for play. Then the group preparethe rules of the game, the pregame briefings, and thc- pro-gramming forms.

If the game is to be one-sided, the War Gaming Department team, in cooperation with the sponsoring school ordepartment, plans the opposition, assigns forces and weapcin conformance with the general situation, and assigns pelsonnel to man the opposition module during the pplay of thcgame.

A Fleet game is initiated by aoletter from the sponscing command to the President of the Naval War College. T1War Gaming Department assigns a team to design and progra,the game, and arranges for one or more pregame conferencetbetween Fleet and department representatives. These dis-cussions raise and resolve such questions as-. "What is tlpurpose of the game? What forces will be simulated? Wha:plans, orders and instructions are pertinent?" Then, mairtaining close liaison with the sponsor's representatives,the gaming team proceeds in the same manner as in curricu.

5-51

SI

gaming to develop and program the game, and to write thervles and prepare the briefings.

S•Rules

The rules for NEWS g~mes are divided into player rulesand control group rules. For a two-sided game, two sets ofplayer rules are required, one for each of the opposingsides; for a one-sided game, one set of player rules.UMpires and certain other control aroup members receive, orhdve access to, copies of all the rules.

The player rules contain a brief and general descriptionof tle game, and its concept of play. They assign player-comanders -aXd player-stuff imembers to command centers, andassign NEWS forces and weapons. Sometimes the rules assignthe players to the player billets; more often, these assign-ments art made elsewhere.

The player rules describe the conmmunications and otherfacilities that will be available during a game. They ex-plain how and in what i:,=r intelligence will be received.The rules debcribe the methods to be used by the players toimplement Th... decisions; for example, what buttons to pressS ,o turn on the sonar in b aoeroyer, or, perhaps, what formsto fill out to initiate an air strike (if the umpires areacting as fibordinat- cor andei.) , and £o on. They tell thepl&-yers to use call signs, or instead, to employ org4niza-tioral titles, hull numbers, and air-raPt flight numbers.They l.ist a phone number to call in case of equipment failure

and other details that will assist the players. But th•player ruqeo do not explain--oor even suggest--how the playersshould organize their staffs and command centers. is upta the player-connanders, as it is up to commarders in th•real world, to organize their staffs and procedures to util-,,.ze best the available commanid and control "eci'itics.

',e contro. group rules describe the organization ofthe control group, and the lo'aLiors an_" functions of modulesa.-d memberR. ýhepy aszign personnel to all c• the control6joup positons. The ru1.o., Isczibe the available fE4.iit3es,-nd cxp!ain their use. rhev describe inrter LModule &n6 `Tnter-

: re coordinating procedures, tne Zlow, " ,ssemination, and

m . -4

Sposting of information and intclligence, and the formsand procedures for compiling material for the critique.

The control group rul.s provide the necessary dataor guides and describe the methods to be used for monitor-ing the employment of forces, evaluating interactions, andinjecting constraints due to logistics, weather, sea states,and so on. They contain information and procedures forderermining and recording aircraft availability, fuel expend-itures, repair times, and the like, and provide umpiringguides for tran'ilating per cent losse, in etfectiveressinto tthe kinds of information and repe-ts that are receivedby a commander in the real world. And if the umpires aremaneuvering forces as subordinates to player-superiors,then ;he umpire rules may specify the NEWS forces that areavailabie to each of the modules, their programmed chaxsc-teristics, the procedures for activating and employing theforces, and for varying the characteristics when necessary.

Proqramming

Programming the NEWS for a game consists, essentially,* of two phases. The first phase is the preparation of a set

of programming instructions by the gaming team; the second,the prograimning of the equipment by the Engineering andMaintenance Division.

The progtamming instructions &asigr umpire and playerspaces and facilities, and the cbarx.teristics of forces,weapons and sensor systems in terms of dial and pcentio-meter settings, and switch positions. The instructic-,s are

* written o:i a series of forms and cards. These form.s andcards are prenared -,-, accordance with information contained

* in the NEWS Prc.riui Guide. 3 7 This reference rublication- for War Gaming Department personnel describes in o.tail the

operational capabilities rf the FWS, and contains all per-tinent prt ograuming information and data.

Depenlinci upon rb- type of game, up to five subsets ofprogramTing _nstt.ctions may be required. These contain,

Srespe#"iveJy, the information and data for programming thefoil•,.wng five ayeas: consnand headquarters and commandcenters, i.rire area in,' cotnur.ications room, control room,

5-53

The command headquarters and command center programmingiptructions consist of a set of forms containing the assign-mft of centers and forces, number of salvos per weapon, 1Lates I

* of fire, and dead reckoning tracer (DRT) and azimuth rangeWicator (ARI) scale settings. The forms also list all the

r6quired labels and readout cards.

Uire area and communications room information includesa layout of the umpire area showing the equipment requiredand its location, control group communications nets, sidepanel displays. status board formats, and passive informationdisplay equipment and labels. Also, as needed, the inter-player communications nets and the assignment of channels andfacilities are listed.

Control room programming information contains the oceanscale zetting, and the shape and color of each of the pro-jtctd force images. It also includes all of the necessaryinputs for the characteristics panels and navigation computers fcr the active NEWS forces, the setting for the 14 fixedforces, and the settings of the position matching switches.

The equipment room programming sheets contain two dif-fereat types of information. The first furnishes the dialsettings for the rates of ascent and descent of active NEWSforcesi the second, potentiometer settings for the "look"and wdetectability" values for active NEWS forces, and"detectability" values for fixed forces,

Damage computer prograiming forms specify the poten-tiometer setting for the parameters of each weapon-type/target-type combination. They assign a target-type to eachNEM• force, and a weapon-type to each weapon. These formsindicate whether or not a player will receive an indicationif one or more of his weapons scores a hit, and if so, thelength of time each hit indication light will remrain illu-minated. They specify the initial effectiveness rerrtainingmeter settings for each force and whether or not the offen-sive capability of individual forces will be reduced as afunction of damrage received.

5-54

i

____-_

The personnel of the Engineering and MaintenanceDivision arrange the equipment and facilities, preparethe statur boards, set up labels and readout cards,establish communications nets, and set the dials, poten-tionteters and switches in accordance with the programminginstructions and information provided by the Operatio's,Evaluation and Research Division team. When these tasi'sare completed, the master plot screen drawn, and charts,slides and other visual aids prepared and distributel,then the NEWS is programmed and ready for the playersand control group.

Participants

As in manual games, the participants in a NEWS gameare divided between the players and the control group.The players are lar College students, Fleet officers, orDestroyer School students. Occasionally, War Gaming Depart-ment officers participate as players. This is usually ingames such as the Destroyer School's where players areneeded to man the aircraft, or in the few experimental in-house games that have been conducted by the War GamingDepartment.

The control group is headed by the Director of theGame. The director is usually the Head of the Operations,Evaluation and Research Division of the War Gaming Depart-ment. In the case of a College curricul'u game, a seniorofficer from the sponsoring School or Department serves asan advisor and consultant. For Destroyer School and Fleetgames, representatives from the sponsoring activity performa ni-milar function.

Module directors are provided by the OER Division;umpires, damage assessors, historians and other key controlgroup members by the War Gaming Department and by sponsoringand supporting activities. In games where there is a fairlylarge number of spectators, a mewiber of the control groupserves as a commentator. This officer describes and discussestiie events as they occur in the game, and his co~mments arebroadcast into the balcony and umpire areas.

5-55

Comaunications equipment operatorE, status boardkeepers, plot console operator, talkers, and messengersare furnished by the War Gading Department with assistancefrom supporting and sponsoring activities as required.

Brief _igs and Rehearsals

The ga'ing tea:- briefs the Director of the War GamingDepartment and other members of the department on the gen-eral concept of play, and upon the rules and procedures.if some of the players and supporting control group personnelare not familiar with the NEWS, the gaming team arranges atour of the system, a tour which emphasizes the facilitiesand equipment that will be used during the game. Then theteam briefs the entire control group; the modules organize,and the director conducts a short control group rehearsaland critique of the game rules and programming. The gamingteam initiates programming changes suggested by the critique,and corrects programming errors. Finally, a brief rehearsalis held for both players and control qroup and, upon itscciopletion, the participants and the system are reariy tobegin the game.

critikes and Post Game Reports

At the end of each local-play game, the players areassembled in the tuapire area and shown the master plotscreen. The director describes briefly the major e--entsthat occirred durinc, the game, and the sponsor's repre-sentat 4 ve couments on the highlights of the play. In tViecase of F'eet and Destroyer School games, a short critiqueusually follows? in the cape of a College game, the critiqueis generally 1ld at a later date and in one of the College'saiditoriums.

For College games, the infr-mation compiled by the con-trol group during the garE, the comments of m•odule directorsar• umpireq, and Elides of the master plot are turned overto the snonsoring school or department for the preparationof •he critique. The War Gaming Departmant assists, -qrequested. in the preparation of the critique :nd in itscondurt.

5-56

• •-•: •I

At the end of iý Fleat gane, either local-play orremote-play, the Tfar Garting Department prepares a reportof the game and transmits it to the sponsoring command.This report then become~s the property of that comuand.

Following every game, the officers and the OperationsResearch Analyst of the War Gaming Department submit com-ments on the &m7thod3, procedures and data used in the game.These are filel foi future reference. The operations orders,rules, procr&timing forms and cards, maps, slides, and allother materihls uged in programming and conducting the gameare filed ii. a "game Dazkage." This material is then avail-able in case another or a similar game Is scheduled.

Demonstrations

A& mentioned previously, the War Gaming Departmentlesigns and -ondu:ts dynamic NEWS demonst-,ations if varioustypes of naval warfare. These demonstrat•ons are presentedin the Umpire Area. These are conducted for the Schools andNaval Cotmand Course of the College i- support of theircurriculums, and for students of the Destrcyor School insupport of its curriculum. Each serves tc integrate and"illustrate the ove-all aspects of a particular type of navalwarfare: antisubmarine warfare, antiair war, fare, mine war-fare, and so on.

The demonstrations are developed and programmed by OERDivision teams in somewhat the same manner as games aredeveloped and programmed- Demonstrations use .ie masterplot screen, side panels, navigation computers, projectedimages, and a variety of supporting visual techniques. Theyalso use supplementary screens for the projection of filmclips and E-ides to support and enhance the master plot dis-play and the narrator's commentary. In scme cases the scopesof the azimuth range indicators are tilted to a horizontal.position so that the spectators can see ths same icope pres-entation, say, of one of the bombers in the demonstration.The movements and inte!ractions of all force images projectedon the master plot and scopes are manipulated by personnelin the control room, and are keyed to the narrator's script.

5-57

In addition to the naval warfare demonstration, dynamiPdemonstrations are also presented to the students of the wargaming courses conducted by the War Gaming Department.V•tee demonstrations illustrate the uses of the equipmentin the umpire area, and the various techniques that areemployed in NEWS games. Modified versions of these demon-strations are also conducted for distinguished guests andfor visiting groups from military and civilian organizations.

A

I

5-58

3 CHAPTER VI

COMPUTERS AND COMPUTER GAMES

The computers that are used for computer and computerassisted war games are general purpose stored programdigital computers. They were not developed for gaming butwere designed and constructed in response to the computa-tional and data processing needs of the mid-twentieth cen-tury. However, it was recognized that many of the capa-bilitivs of digital computers were applicable to war gamingand, as a result, these modern electronic devices were soonemployed to assist in the conduct of war games and, also,to play entire games without benefit oZ human par-icipation.

In order to understand how such general purpce com-puters can be used in war gaming, it is beneficial to knowwhat sort of older processes, devices, and games they havereplaced, and how the computers can take over their func-tions. For these reasons, brief descriptions of certainmanual processes, the development of computers, and anexplanation of binary representation, computers, and theirfunctioning precede the description of computer-assistedand computer games.

Rigid Umpiring.

When the rigid method of evaluation is employed in amanual game, the umpiies adhere to the prescribed rules andprocedures. For instance, at the beginnina of a move, aplayer decides to fire weapons. The damage assessment umpirewould then receiv' weapons employment cards similar to theone shown in Figure ý-i. The data in columns 1 through '5have been entered, as appropriate, by the players and otherumpires, and monitored according to the rules of the game.The damage umpire processes the data on each card by follow-ing the prcocedures shown in Figure 6-2, and places them inan ,)utgoing box. The cards are then lised by recorders andother umpires as the rules dictate--updating status boards,furnishing intellgence to the players, degrading the capa-

bilities of forcs., etc.

6-1I

--. - . .... ..l..

( ~WEAPONS E~AFLOY1chl't CARD *FIRING FORCE g TARGEFT 1 OUTCOME

' LOCAT IW f LOCATIONi

xI y

T T

"rC oi l

MLW7 CA.... - ,.%

,MwU i . t

Figure 6-2 ,

6-2

I.,'

To process the information on each card, the damageassessment umpire needs, in addition to the flew cha t ormodel, a random device and the f-)llowing data: weaponsranges, hit probabilities, and damage per iitt. These datamay oe changed from play to play ,ithout arfec-ing thegame procedures.

In the rigid method of evaluatico., the umpire ritakes afew calculations, refers to a table of probabilities, employsa chance device, and makes his decisions on 1-he basis otnumerical comparisons. His duties require no particularprofessional military experience or judgment. These factorsare applied when the procedures are developed, the ruleswritten, and the data compiled.

Because rigid umpiring is a routine and timp-consimingprocezs, numerous computing and recording aids have beendevised. Anong these were Livermore's firing-board,* theNaval War College's circular slide rules for damage assess-ment, and a wide variety of graphs, nomograms, and sliderules. One relatively recent gadget is the RAND Corporationcircular slide rule for computing nuiclear bomb damage ffects.The object of such devices is to simplify and speed-up one ora limited number of the uroiring processes. For instance, a

S~graphical device of some sort could be employed te compute

slant raige. or a less specialized aid such as a deskcalculator might be used to assist _n the process.

Following their development, digital computers have beenused to assist umpires in handling lengthy and tedious calcu-lations. However, these computers have other capabilities inaddition to those of performir:ri rapid ccmputations. They canstore and retrieve data mnd act as a chance device. They canalso make decisions on the basis of numerical comparisýns ano,as a result, change their sequence of operations. In short,they are capable of performing all such umpiring chores asthose envisioned in Fizare 6-2. For example, instead of the

*"No clerk. are reaaired to make tne computatxons, whichinvolve no mo'e labor than to score at Cribbaqe; . .

I-

v apons.e.nploymcnt card being placed in in incoming box, theymicjht he punched and leo int.. ar input device of a computer.',,e computer woulz the, .ead, prL-,ess, and turn out the com-pleted card in much the same :2anner as the human umpire. Arore ambitious program rig-t ir, true- the computer to co-binear2 carry out additional umpirin- p ocedures. For instance,it might monitoi the E. R. 'effectiveness remaining) cf vol-witn 4 of the cazrs to determine if t>..e firing force wascapable of firing the aciponrn 'n *cctrdar!e with tCe rulesand if the number of missilc3 - tered i column 9 -,%ere avail-anle.

Rigid-play Games.

Prior to World War I1 most rig.dly evaluated gameb we--e:cnduct•.d for edlucational purpos s. The players were con-fronted with -.. tuaions ro rung command decisions. ?ontro.groups Lssistee in the prc. :s b-- performing routinr. and pre-determined functions. Ii C_:•,trol group members gained mili-tary experience from the pregame pro-edures and the plays,i t was more or less an ad., bonus. The relatively fewrigidly umpired game- wh' -. Nere devised to ob*ain decision- . ,making information were, for the most part, played to Lest)r *, - rehearse a plan, t to assist in its development.Only one, or a very 'irrited number of play-throughs wercmade. Usually, as 'n educational games, the players madecom•rand decisions. The control group ;uirnished silpportinqservices.

The war years and those that followed •zýcelera•-.d *ev-lutionary .rowth of conventional military harawa:e and.in addit 3n, introduced a variety of radical., expen'ive, arnd-apidly _hanqgnc weapons vyster.s. Responsi-'e m'l1iar"otficials we-e -aced with a wide and bew.-iae: :nq va. _t. ofc- ,ic'a Whi _J the many conpeting weaponi syste:'-' qhouldbe sele-ted t.. ir et best the Uhreat cf tomorrow Js .el_ asthat of today? now should they b,. employed? i'o7 c% t' ev,be integ.ated Lnto the overall military structuri? 7'he- needfor derision-m inq information curved in a.. exporent alfahic-..

Tc meet the requ:rements for .;ta•.stical- si•iil].cartAata, tn)e mathematical technriales o• the war-nurtu- 2 aotŽ:e..

'--4

______

science of operations research were mobilized and refined.In situations where mathematical methods were impracticable,analysts turned to the traditional milita•.y testing tool,the analytical war game. The overall results--from a wargaming point of view--were a renaissance of the ancient art,its introduction into civilian activities, and the develop-ment and utilization of a previously somewhat neglected andmore scientific approach, an approach which might well betermed the "rigid-play" game.

Rigid games are designed chiefly for the conduct oirepeated trials under controlled conditions. Their purposeis to provide data which are statistically sound. Theplayers do not make command decisions; like the umpires ia arigidly evaluated qame, they are required to adhere to pre-determined doctrines and procedures. A player's judgmentmay urge him to hold his fire until a better target presentsitself; but if the rules say "fire," he fires. If a playerlearns something in an early play, he cannot, unless therules permit, use this knowleidge in later plays.

In completely rigid games, both the players and theumpires make their decisions according to rules which referto or include numerical data, and which require some sortof arithmetical and logical manipulations for their imple-mentation. Hence, rigid games are also called "computa-tional games." Since the players are not permitted to usetheir own experience or judgment, and must base all theirdecisions on calculations or codified rules, some writershave distinguished this type of endeavor by the name "simu-lation," and have reserved the title of "game" for simula-tions in which either the players or both the players andumpires are allowed to make decisions. 3 9 Using this termi-nology, a manual rigid game is called a "manual simulation,"but a manual play in which the players excercise choice andthe umpires follow the rigid method of evaluation is knownas a "manual game."*

*See footnote, page 1--24.

6-5

T1- f~rri'ilation and conduct of r-igid games has a_great~er appeal for analysts and researchers than for manyprofoosiona1 military offi-cers. However, the latter aredeC~nitely concerned with tht- doctrines and data which areused, and witb the results that are obtained, eqg., whatis t~he ranq,,e of possible outcome, wvhat are the sensitive

pa~ani~'no -iawhich of themr can be controlled, etc.

The rig~id games that were devised and conducted in theearly 1950's were imanual games. And as in other manual gamies,varlous devices and~ computing aids were developed and used tospeed parts of the simulation process. But despite those aids,the pro::c~-"--s were rather slow, and there was seldom, suffi-cienit time or people to play the number of games or examine.all of the ý'ariations that were deemed desirable.

With tate Pdvent of electronic digital comp~uters withfair-y large storage capacities a-d with the ab__*ity to per-formlboth arithmetic and loqical operat'ions, it necaime pos-sible to instr-act thei' not only ro play the "umpiring rolc-,buit also to act as t~he pl ayers in a completely rigid typc-of p m1.~ Ths copte am--fatan as completelyobj~ctive as only a macnine can be---was born.

Computer games &ra scmetirnes zeferred to ais 'omt&iwilatiuns,"3 40 or as comp,-tational. gamnes for- the sa7-eýreasons that these termi k~re used in- conjunction with or .nreference to rigid ma~nual Twavs. Like their hand-playedcouflterp&kcta, compu;:ir gamnes art. conauct-ec:- to obtain decs Sionl-nx*A4in .ý.flormatior. They' ar-#. analjrticai rather than edUca-tional in rature.

RM-_'V-Mer ~ ~ 1 of c"itnq Devi':es end $yst -em sý

There are four general. cl.asses of --o!nuting devices andsystem. 1z order of theil dt 'elopment t-hey a~re: the manual,tn2 s*OL&Piavcal, the eloctr.-mechanienzl, and the eiLectronic.*

*~j~pjutign o ?..tRAUc omuters, by Ned Chapirn0.Van )lostzad Company, Inc. 1957) contains a chroncoloay of

coammV-q eevelopments and 4utomaf~ic computers frozm earli cst

tnImez toj 1956.-

The earliest manual devices evolved from the use of thefingers as counting and computational aids and are, there-fore, known as "digit'al" devices. Of these, the familiarabacus has survived. In this device, discrete quantitiesare represented by beads.

A later and entirely different kind of manual computingaid uses a continuous scale to represent numbers and quanti-ties. One cormnon example of this type of computing devicei! the slide rule; others, graphs and nomograms. Because,in these tools, there is an analogy between the measurementsand the quantities represented, they are known as "analog"computational devices.

The abacus and, in general, the slide rule are used forthe solution of a variety of problems. Hence, they may betermed "general" or "multi-purpose" computers or computingaids. Graphs and nomograms, on the other hand, are usuallyconstructed for the solution of a particular type or classof problems. They are "special-p-.rpose" computers. Most ofthe manual computational aids that have been or are used inwar gaming are special-purpose devices.

The first mechanical computer appears to have been anadding machine built in France in 1642 by Pascal. A some-what similar device was constructed later in the centuryby Leibnitz of Germany. These two machines might be con-sidered as the ancestors of today's desk calculators.

In France about 1746, Jacques devised a method of usingpunched cards to control the operations of a" loom. Someforty v s___ 'I r MAller of Germany conceived the idea of anautomatic "omputer, a machine that could by itself carry outa sequence of operations. Babbage, in England, extended thework of Jacques and MIlller and around 1830 constructed a modelof a card-controlled digital computer. The British governmentfinanced the building of a full-scale version, but its comple-tion was beyond the technology of the times. However, a dif-ferent type of computer was constructed in 1876 by Lord Kelvin.This was a special-purpose analog device for calculating themotion of the tides. Its purpose, as stated by the inventor,

6-7

was ". . . to substitute brass for brain in the greatmechanical labour of calculating . . .

Toward the end of the nineteenth century, Hollerithand Powers of the U.S. Bureau of the Census combined theearlier idea of punched cards with electromagnetic tech-niques, and developed methods and equipment for recording,sorting, and tabulating the data collected during thie censurof 1890. Modern punched-card systems and equipment arehighly improved versions of their data processing machines.

In the 1930's, Dr. Bush of Ni.I.T. designed and built amechanical analog computer for the solution of various typesof differential equations. This machine was called a "differ-ential analyzer," and is considered by some to be the firstof the modern computers. 4 1 Inrproved types were used duringthe second world war to solve problems in ballistics. Lateron, analog computers were built with electromechanical andelectronic components.

The first automatic digital computer was completed in1944. Built at Harvard University by H. Aiken and a groupof engineers and graduate studenits, it used electromagneticcorponents as computing elements, and was known as the Mark IRelay Computer, cr the Automatic Sequence-Controlled Calcu-lator. It performed about three additions per second. 4 2

Realizing that many complicated mathematical problemscould be solved by reducing them to the basic arithmeticprocesses,** Dr. J. W. Mauchley of the U.S- Bireau ofStandards suggested that a high-speed digirt- co-mputer wouldmake this approach practicable. To obtain the necessarycomputational speeds, bp proposed that vacuum tubes be used

4s computing elements. Under Mauchley's and J. P. Eckert'sdirection, the design and construction of an electronr-ccomputer was begun 4n 1942 at the Univer3ity of Pennsylvania.

* &cyclo~pdia Britannica, vol. 4, page 54ý-, 19610.

**Transforming a matnematical problem into a series 4arithmetic steps is called "numnerical ana;ysis."

!Si_____--- ',~ -

) The result wa ENIAC (Electronic Numerical Integrator andAutomatic Calculator). Completed in 1946, it was the orig-inal high-speed digital computer, the first to take advantagcof the swift motions of electrons. ENIAC handled up to 5,000additions per second. 4 2

Since the construction of ENIAC, a large number ofgeneral purpose digital computers of various sizes andcapacities have been built, and continuing improvementsmade in their design, versatility, and speed. These arethe sort of computers that are used as adjuncts to manualgames and for the conduct of computer games.

Binary Representation

The counter wheels and other components of a mechanicaldigital computer are constructed with ten positions or states,each corresponding to one of the ten r•ecinal digits. A groupof components represents a decimal number. The components ofan electronic digital computer, however, are two-state orbinary devices. Transistors and vacuum tubes are either con-ducting ur not conducting, magnetic materials are magnetizedii in one direction or in the opposite direction, and so on.If data are to be represented by these components, either aseries of pulses in time must be used to indicate decimaldigits, or a system of data representation compatible withthe bi-state nature of the e` ctronic components and circuitsmust be selected. The lattei course has proven the better.Today, digital computers are K.esigmed to function in theiratural or binary mode.

Ti--' decimal system employs ten digits, 0 through 9.Their place values are based on a progression of powers often. For example, the decimal number 36 has a 3 in the 101or tens position, and a 6 in the 10 or units position, i.e.,

36 = 3(10) 1 + 6(10)•

The number system employiri two digits, 0 and 1, is calledthe binary system. Place values correspond to powers of two(see Table 6-1). Thus, in the binary number 100100 the mostsignificant 1 is in the 25 or thirty-twos position the left0 in the 24 or -vi-teens place, the next 0 in the 25 or eightsposition, and so forth, or:

6-9

' ii ,• ,• ••

- ' L - • yd,, -

100100 1(2) 5+0(2)4+0(2)3+1(2)2+0(2)1+0(2)0

Its equivalent decimal number is found by computing thepowers of two and adding:

1 (32) +0 (16) +0 (8) +1 (4) +0 (2) +0(1) = 36

TABLE 6-1

POERS OW TWO

20 1 217 131,072

21 2 218 262,144

22 4 219 524,288

23 3 220 1,048,576

24 16 221 2,097,152

25 32 222 4,194,304

26 64 223 8,388,608

2 128 224 16,777,216

28 256 225 33,554,43?

59 512 226 67, 103,064

'10 ',024 227 134,217,728

.i1 2,048 228 268,435,456

212 4,096 229 536,870, M12

013 81092 2 30 1,073,741,824

214 16,384 231 2,147,483,648

?15 32,768 23' 4,294,967,296

216 65,536 233 9,589,934,592

6-10

!

Fi

TABLE 6-2

DECIMAL AND BINARY EQUIVALENTS

BINARY BINARY'q Place Values Place Values

A 64 32 161 81 4 21 1 A64 132 j1618 41 211

0 0 17 1 0 0 0 1

1 1 18 1 o 10 1 0

2 10 19 100 11

3 1 1 20 1 0 1 0 0

4 1 0 0 21 1 0 1 0 1

5 1 0 1 22 1 0 1 1 0

6 1 1 0 23 1 0 1 1 1

7 1 1 1 24 ! 1 0 0 c

8 1 0 0 0 25 1 1 0 0 1

9 1 0 0 1 30 1 11 1 1 0

10 1 0 1 0 40 1 0 1 0 0 0

11 0 1 1 50 1 1 0 0 1 0

12 1 1 0 0 60 1 1 1 10 0

13 1 1 0 1 70 1 0 G 1 1 0

14 1 1 1 80 o 1 1 U- 0 0 0

15 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0

16 1 0 0 01,100 1 1 ;3 0110 0

1660

S"• 6b--1

-S /V

.- Using the bases or radices as subscripts to indicate therespctive number systems:

1001002 = 3610

As shown in Figure 6-3, the binary number 100100 can berepresented at one instant in time by a group of commonbinary indicators, light bulbs. The decimal number 36squizres fewer bulbs, but each must be flasied an appropriatenIbor of times.

1 0 0 1 0 0

ix,- . -

\\I I/

BIXARJ AND DECIPI-AL REPRESENTATTON OF DATA •

FI~rkTX 6-

In the uppe ato iue63 a light repr:esents thvI of binary notati.o.n; no light, th,,e 0. Similarly, within acopute)r, one ofI the two st.4-tes of a co-mpnent represents oneof the binary syvbolv, and th-e secos,' a.ignals te -,:Sence ofthe othar-.

•5-1/

The binary symbol 1 or its electronic indicator iscalled a "bit," a shortened form of binary digit. The 0 is

sometimes referred to as a "no-bit"; more often its presenceis simply inferred. The binary number 110 can be describedas having a no bit in the 1 position, and a bit in the 2 and4 positions; or merely by noting that it has a bit in the 2and 4 positions.

While some computers employ the binary system of nota-tion, others use various codes based on that system. Onesuch scheme is known as the "binary coded decimal," or"BCD." As illustrated in Table 6-3, this system uses fourbit positions to represent in binary form any of the decimaldigits or "characters," and combinations of the four-bitbinary representations t' form decimal numbers.

TABLE 6-3

DECIMAL 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2' 1 0

BINARY 1001 1000 0111 011010101 0100 0011 0010j0001 0000

FOUR PLACE BINARY REPRESENTATION OF DECIMAL DIGITS 0 -9

DECIMAL 3 6

BCD 0011 0110

BINARY CODED DECIMAL "EPPESENTATION OF DECIMAL 36

A -oriputer may store and process data charackr-' bycharacter. In such a case, if data, were rep-esenited i:;ter-nallv as shown in T-able 6-3, the computer would handle four--bit positions (one character) at a time. In a second ;metoda computer manipulates a largor number of bi. positrbrnscalled a "word." A word might consist of, say, 32 bitpositions. This number is referred to as the "word ler•e.th.'The left bit position oi a word is frequent1y reserred fr.r

a sign bit. Ther a bit in that position is a signal to theco7puter that the ntumber is negative; the absence of a bit[ I

) 6-13

that it is positive. If the left bit of a 32-bit word is

used as a sign bit, the word is capable of representing adecimal number of up to 232 -1, or 4,294,967,295 (seeTable 6-1).

Generally speaking, input data for a computer areexpressed in the normal decimal fashion, and the computerperforms th,. chore of translating the decimal numbers intothe proper form for internai storage and pzucessing. Afterprocessing, the computer translates the binary r-presenta-tions back to decimal form for the end results or output.An understanding of how data are represented within thecomputer is, however, necessary for preparing the program,and to interpret data that are visually displayed at thecoisole.

-.igital Computer-_.

A digital computer consists of five functional com-ponents: input de-ice, storage or memory, control unit,arithmetic-logical unit, and output device. It is controlledexternally from a console which contains the keys andswitches for starting, stoppiig, and resetting. The console 2also contains key for the manual insertion of data, andAights so that data within the syste- may be displayedvisually.

input devices read ir ,cructionq and data from punchedcards, punched tape, or magnetic tape into the main orprimary -.. ory component.

The main menray accepts and stores information and.furniahes it to other computer elements. In additioii,ocim ccmputers possess an auxiliary or secondary memory.Data stored in auxiliary memory are transferred throughnbi amory and, vhe:n needed, routed back into main memorybefore processing. Since this takes longer than gettingdata di rectly from primary memory, the secondary memory J.s

so callsd the ve1ow access" memory; the primary memory.the 'rapid access."

In ord4r that information may be stored and located as1dod, each location or position of storage has an address.

6-24

When data are inserted at an assigned memory address, itreplaces any information already there. However, datataken from storage for processing or transfer are in effectcopied rather than removed, and remain in the memory loca-tion unless erased by a specific instruction or replacedby other information.

The control unit coordinates the activities of thecomputer components and directs their operations accordingto a program stored in memory. The arithmetic-logicalunit performs the basic arithmetic processes of addition,subtraction, multiplication, and division. This unit canalso compare two numbers in somewhat the same way as anLunpire in a wir game compares the numbers appearing on thefaces of a pair of dice with a hit probability. The unit,like the umpire, decides whether to take the next step inthe program, or branch to another instruction. Results of)rocessing are placed in storage eithpr for further proces-Eing or for transfei to an output device.

Output devices take information from the main memoryand record it on punched cards, punched tape, magnetictape, or prepare printed copy. Additionally, by means ofcathode ray tube display units, some computers can present

graphical displays of the output data.

Input and output devices may be located at some distancefrom the other components, thus enabling several activitiesto use the same computer (processing and storage units) ona ti'e-sharing or on a priority basis.

Stored Progra..s

Each f'omputer has a built-in capability for performinga certairn number of specific operations such as: read datainto mem.rry, add the contents of one memory location toanother, move data from one location to another, make com-rarison- -t--n cut information, and so on. It carries outeach opt:at4on in response to a -oded instruction. Theinstruction tells the computer the operation to performand provides th- addresses of the necessary data. The seriesDf instructions required to carry out a procedure is calleda "programn.

6-15

A program for a digital computer is usually recorderon punched cards or tape. When it is desired to use th-program, the cards or tape are read into the main memory/.After that job is completed, another proTram may be storedand another procedure carzied out. Because it is able tostore its own program, of instructions, a digital compuitercan be used for many problems simpl, by "loading' theproper program and the necessary data into its memory.

Developing a Program

The devlopment of a digital comouter oroaramn is usuallya long and rather involved process. Ti : ,iire an under-standing of the problem, a kncwlndqe of the instrictionswhich the computer is capable of performing, the code bywhich it operates, the capacity of the merory, and the methodof data representation.

The first step in the preparation of a comn-uter programis the construction of a generalized model. F-- instance,a program for damage assessrrent might oricinate with a flowchart such as the one depicted in Figure 6-4. This modeldiffers from that for the human damage assessment umpire(Figure 6-2) in only the input and outpu: steps. It indicatesthat for this particular case punched cards will be usedinput and output mediums.

The flow chart shows what is to be done, nct how to doit, and a computer must be told "how. The next step i'sto prepare mc.:e detailed charts. Thus, the sec•nd box ofFigure 6-4 might be expanded as sho ,n'n Figure 6-5. In-his chart Xw represents the X-coordinate .f the force firinr,the weapon; Xt, the X--oordinate of tie target.,X Le resenC stheir difference. The s'rmbcls for the other coordin• -es fol-low a similer pattern.

L1hafts duch as Figure 6-S, which are concern-ed • i.Ffzý

wit. how data a&.&e to be processed w.ithin a com,'uter, are&jaetimes called "blcck diagrnms' rather thar z ....

Wh*, the entire sequence of logic and '-_-t-metitions has Vkeen graphiaal•y delineated, the c> : -, uscdas •uido fc:r writing each step o" ,s,,,,c in the ,

I ___________

REALD CARO

TARGET FORC I

ýISJ~I-NOr IGI I

< 1N o EIASNGE I

__- 7Iz~HLA ITS>Is

-cr6-4

xw .x ,J STORE (Av'i 2

MUTIPLY 7AdX BYITSELF 1zw zt

SY B (ASE J BY ITSELF

t Iil)•+ I•) _ _ _J

,WY +6(), +

MU.LTIPLYJ21&Y BY ITSELF

•?bOC" tJAGR-Aki - SLANT RANGF "OMPUTZV7ION

F-ýoure -

I-

,I

- R:

I.r

of the computer. As noted earlier, the series of codedinstructions for an entire process is called a program.The program is recirded on a deck of punched cards, apunched tape, or a magnetic tape.

The last step of Figure 6-5 cmlls for the calculationof a square root. Pecause digital computers can only add,subtract, multiply, and divide, this step needs to beexpanded into a sequence of operatiuns which the cauqputeris capable of perfor-ming. However, progiams for the solutionof such common problems as the computation of square rootsare usually available. They can be stored in memory andtied into the main program as needed, and are usually re-ferred to as "subruutines."

Proc rAMMiýg Lanqu ages

Preparing a program in the form of a series of ccdedcomputer instructions is a long and exacting process, andone that requires a detailed knowledge of the computer andits coded language. To provide faster and more efficientmeans of writing computer programs, programnring languagessuch as FORTRA• (FOft.tula TRANslation Language) and COBAL

(CGrmnorn Business Oriented Language) have been developed.These languages require less detailed knowledge of thecompute:. They more closely approximate the everydaylanguage of the r-iogrammer and hence are relatively easyto learn. A prcgrazn written in such a language is calleda -source program."

A source program is fed in,.) a computer along with a"processor." A processor is a computer program that trans-lates t1-he source proqram into a series of coded computer

instructions, ano produces as an output a program in com-puter language. This program is called the "Ot" ...... grazn."lThe object progrm can then be used by he computer to carryout the desired procedures.

-41

o, mu t ext ProcessinU

Prior to the use of a computer, the deck of punchedt-ards ilr tapes) on which the program is recorded is loaded I• io memory. Then the subroutinef and necessary 0:cta, wbich

A-

are also recorded on cards or tape-., are read and stored. S iThese would include, in the case of the damage assessmentroutine, a square root subroutine, a random number gener-ating subroutine (which replaces the dice roll or randomnmber table of the human umpire), weapon ranges, bit prob--abilities, and damage per hit.

A sample problem is placed in the computer and theresults of each step are checked against those obtainedby hand or desk calculator processing. In this way,errors or so-called "bugs" in the program are locatedand corrected, a procedure known as "debugging." Thedebugging of complicated programs usually requires agreat deal of time and skill.

When the program is debugged, the computer is started.The control unit locates the first instruction stored inmemory. It interprets the instruction and comnmands theoperation called for to be perforued. It then takes, ana-lyzes, and executes the next instruction, and so on, stepby step until it processes all the data, completes theprogram, or reaches a halt instruction. For examele, let'ssuppose that the weapons employment cards for a move arestacked in the card hopper. The computer takes the firstcard and reads the information on it into memn'ry. Itprocesses the information according to the stored programand punches out the results on the card. It then reads,pro-asses, and punches out the next card, and so on untilthe last card is stacked at the outgoing end.

The weapon ranges, hit probabilities and incrementaldamaqg which wire stored in memory for use with the damageassessment program may be changed from pla;- to play with-out requiring any changes in the computer routine. However,if the procedures are changed or new ones added, the com-puter program must be modified or rawritten. To facilitatethe introduction of modifications, some routines are designedso as to consist of a sort of master program and a number ofsubroutines. Subroutines may be replaced by improvred ver-sion4 without affecting the overall pattern. Modular pro-grams usually require a larger amount of meiory, and takelonqer to run.

6-20

4 .. . ...... .....

* •Computer-Assistad Gptes

The damage assessment program previously discussedserves to iliustrate in a very general way how a digitalcomputer might be used to assist in the control of a manualgame. In the particular case cited, it would handle theduties of a damage assessment umpire, and perform them-aster and without arithmetical errors. And in practice,additional programs would be developed to handle othercontrol group functions. General Rogers had this to sayabout the use of computers in a 1960 United States Contin-ental Army r"inmand war game. "Tc reduce the effort involvedin making needed evaluation, a small electronic digital coxý.-;uter is available. It is used for such things as evaluatingcasualties due to conventional or atomic artillery, infantryengagements, and tank or tank-antitank firefights. As timegoes on, more and more such tasks which are primarily arith-metical in nature will be assigned to the computerAdditionally, work is underway to simplify the bookkeepingeffort associated with data stc-age. Eventually the fileson units which show strengths, casualties, logistics situ-ation, position, and similar data, may be put on tape orpunched cards. Already the computer is used for keepingan. intelligence file up-to-date and deciding, on tL. basisof the probabilitics involved, which units are detectedand at whýat time in the course of play." 4 3

Computers are also employed to assist in post gameevaluations of manual games. For example, detailed recordsof many aspects of the plays of the game known as INDIGO(Intelligence Division Gaming Operation) were "... put onpunched cards for computer associated analysis of severalphases . . ",,40

TACSPIEL, described briefly in Chapter IV, is a computar-assisted game dealing with land warfare at the division andlower levels. Assessment d-ta, unit identification and posi-tion information, etc., arf punched on cards. These cardsare used zs inputs to the omputer which processes the infor-mation and performs bookke ping 3perations. Another andrelated manual game (also •entioned in Chapter IV) whi hemploys computer assistance is THEATERSPIEL. This is playedon a higher level (theater' than TACSPIEL. Players receive

6-21

.ntelligence from the control group and from the outputsof the Lutelligence model. The players evaluate theinfrimation in view of their overall objectives and pre-pare mission type orders. T•he orderx are sent to theappropriate sections of the control group. The membersof the control group Cvaluate the orders and ". . . makeappropriate computer inputs to the field or model theycontrol. These computer inputs are then punched on IBMpunch cards, put into the computer and a day's operationis generated within the computer. The number of computerinput cards have been averaging about 1200 per day for atypical cycle of play assessing division units in thetheater level setting. This cycle of play is a 24 hourgame cycle and is generally assessed in a period of somethree working days." 5 4

THEATERSPIELT contains five computer models: air opera-tions, ground combat cperations, combat suprort, logistics,and combat recovery. Guerrilla activity, small unit actions,and political-military affaire are hand assbssed. The Jntal-liqence model was played by hand, but is now computerized.

Computer outputs "nclude a casualty assesRment report "and a master status -epor%. The casualty assessment report qresults from the interaction of three models: air, ground,and support. The atatus rsport provides the updated posi-tion, strength, and suprly level of all units. It alsoprovides the combat potential of ground combat units, andthe weapons potential of artillery units. The control groupcombines t1'J information contained in these reports withits hand-asseased results and the outputs of the intelli-gence model. it prepares and issues evaluated intelligencereports to the players. Upon receipt of this information,*he players are ready to begin the next cycle of play.

The use of computers in conjunction with manual gamingtechniques has several advantages. The cc¢iiputer frees tnecontrol gi°oup from tedious and time-consuming computationsand bookkeeping, and allows the game to progress at a moreacceptabla rate. It makes possible ri.id and rapid damageassessment in games _a which thol decisions axo made by theplayerps as well ar in those in wiich the players -.nd the-.v•ires follow predetermined doctrines and decision r'iles.

6-22

) And in either case, this type of gaming permits the playersand umpires to utilize map displays and to follow the courseof events as they would in a similar but purely manual gme.

A computer-assisted game is an amalgam of computermodels, hand-played models and value judgments. It allowsfor a gradual development and substitution of computer modelsfor hand-played models and hand-played models for controlgroup iudgment when and as experience indicates that eachsuch substitution is both -.Lacticable &nd desirable. Compu-ter-assisted games can use smaller and less costly equipment

than those needed for computer simulations, and usually re-quire less of an investment in programming time. They ap-pear to be suited to gaming activities which do not havedirect access to a computer, but which may, through the useof rem,-te input-output devic3s, share one with a nuber ofother activities. As pointed out by Morgenthaler, computer-

assisted gaming nay be more efficient than computer simulationsfor large-scale games which are to be run once or a limitednumber of times.

Computer-assisted games require careful planning sothat computer inputs and outputs form a logical part of theoverall flow of information. They are adaptable to a time-step type of play in which players make decisions, the con-trol group, with the aid of the computer, monitors and assessesthe resulting movements and interactions, &nd then informsthe players of the results. Computer-assisted games areless rapid than computer games, and are not suited to situ-ations which require a large number of replications.

CcMputer Gginq

Computer games are conducted entirely on a digital com-outer. Once the proc •aa and data are loaded, and the startbutton pressed, the computer itself simulates the conflictin accordance with the instructions stored in its memory.Computer games are analytical, and completely rigii, Asnoted earlier, they are sometimes called computer simula-tions or computational games.

Although the proqramming of a comprter for a game maybe a lengthy and involved process, it follows the same basic

6-23

prooddures that are required for programming an umpire- Ane, or any other sort of problem. First, a genera]

$00 or flow chart is constructed. Detailed block dia-STOW we prepared, and a program written. The programis roamftd on punched cards or on tapes. The program,Sisoutines, data, and parameters are read into memory,sU• the proram is debugged. Then the game is ready to bep1ayW. As in Lhe umpiring program, parameters such ashit p•sbabilties, weapon ranges, etc., may be changed tosuit the purpose of the game. Additionally, since theXmoel for a computer game includes the decisions andactions of the players, provisions are made to reflect anuber of player decisions or doctrines by a selection ofsuitable input parareter.

During and at the end of a game, the computer canprint out the desired results according to instructions.For instance, in an antiair warfare game, "The 'print-outs'can show numbers of aircraft shot down by missiles and byinterceptors. It can show numbers and types of ships sunk,and it can show each event in chronological order togetherwith the time it occurs. If the machine has the necessaryaccessories, a graphic presentation showing attackingbombers and defending ship tracks can be printed out duringor at the end of the game." 3 0

The pregame procedures for a compvter game are similarto those for other types, but require more careful and de-tailed planning. The model, for example, must be constructedso that all desired aspects are considered and des•:ribed pre-cisely. If some contingency is not p:rogramme, an umpirecanmt st.ep in and make a decision, or stop the play vutila rule is formulated. As observed previously, changes inprram logic require a rewriting of the routine.

Because the preparation of a computer model zequiresthat everv wltp be tlv~ught cut in advance. it is sometimes-ostrt-ct*e with the aid of manual gaming techniques. Thehand-plays provide the model desirpners with an opportunityto soee and examine all. ýoesible events and interactions, togain an appreciation of their interreiationships and relativeworth, to determine feasible aq egations, and to e 41perinent

with various procedures,

6-24

i

- •i

F)Computer models, like other game models, may be eitherdeterministic or stochastic in their treatment of chanceevents. "A deterministic model has the property that theresult of a modeled event is completely determined by thedata which describe the situation. In such a model theresults of probabilistic events are determined by expectedvalues for the events; e.g., if the probability of a borber'ssurvival over a given route is 0.20, then of ten boebersflown along this route the deterministic model shows exactlyeight killed and two alive at the end of the route. A sto-chastic or Monte Carlo model has the property that the resultof a modeled event is determined by the interaction of themodel rules with a random proceb- (or processes). For in-stance, the stochastic model might determine how many of theten bombers survive by comparing ten random numbers with thesurvival probability 0.20; for each number less than 0.20 abomber survives.

Repeated runs of a stochastic model reveal the distri-bution of possible outcomes, not just an expected outcome." 4 0

Stochastic models are also called protabilistic models. Out-comes are subject to chance or probability. Some models useboth expected value (deterministic) and stochastic (probabil-istic) techniques.

Time-Step and Event-Store Games.

Usually, compiuter games are conducted according tceither a time-step or event-store method. 1n the t,'mecase, as mentioned ii. Chapter III, the procedures aresimilar to those used in a manual game in which all movesare made for a fixeC: time interval. The computer calculatesthe positiong of all force& at regular time steps. At theend of each step, it examines each interaction that mighthave occurred, decides if it did occur, and if it did, de-termiines the outcomes.

For any particuiar play of a game the time int,-,val isa constant, but may be changed from play to play if as de-sired. . In a time step game, when two things occurwithin the same interval, either extra calculations must bemade to detei-mine which occurred first, or the progrAmmermust have arbitrarily decided which item takes precvcde4ce.

6-25

Ii!

A saull time step can be employed to eliminate most occur-Mena.. of this nature but (this increases the running time

of a gm) ."45

In the event-store or critical event method, the cor-puter, instead of advancing the game by constant time incre-ents, jvnpS ahead to *be next event that has a probability

of occurring and tha: is vital to the outcome of the game."98 positions, dis-ances, or times are determined until theycan be used.A5

As each new rvent is generated an "event word" is formed.This word tells when the event will occur, what type of actionis to be taken, and what offe sive and defensive units areinvolved. The word is then stored according to its time ofoccirrence in a ch-onological list of future events.

9TARTTM NEXT DETERMINE TYPE EVENT

STORE NEW EVENT OR CARPY OUT RO171INE FOR

EVENTS AS REQUIRED THIS TYPE OF EVENT

1E.TN7 STORE ROUTINE

FIGURE 6-6

"The sequence of the g&.re is as follows: input dataand program are read into the zamputer and the machine thencalculates and stores, in pr-pei order, all events that canbe prdiL.ated at the start oi the game. The program thentakes the first event in store, calculates the outcome.stores this, foris -words for any required new events, andremoves any units Lhat will no longer affect the qwme re-sulits. With further events in store, they are consioecedin order, until the last event is treated. Then the gcmein conlatds. As an alternat'.ve procedure the ga..;e cwan beterminated at some fixed time, or when some specific event

6-26 I

fi

One advantage of the event-store metaod is that events--detections, weapon releases, weapon kills, etc.--occur inproper time sequence; another, th.e ease and flexibility ofprogramming. "All of the various sections of the event storegame are lcosely coupled through the control routine whichselects the next event in store aad determines Ats type. Ifit is found that new events ar. desirable, or if revisionsto existing events are indicated, taese can be inserted with-out affecting the entire game. This is particularly: true whenan effort is made in the original coding to (1) allow space inthe computer store for expansion, and (2) to make each eventa self-contained routine. Since experience shows that allgames need some modifications when used to study variedmilitay problems, this feature is well appreciated." 4 5

One disadvantage of the event-store technique is thatInitially, the programmer encounters difficulty with the

logic because the nornmal chronological sequence is not ob-vious. . .This difficulty is overcome by experience andmany persons then find the event concept the simpler." 4 5

A second limitation is the amount of memory that must beset aside for storing future events. This difficulty maybe minimized by cotibi,.ing the time-step and event- ztoremethods into a so-called "Periodically Supplemented EventStore" technique. In this method "A time step is added tothe control program by storing at a stated interval - tyveof event that will look fnrward and determine whjj- of theparticipants can have interactions in the coming time inter-val. Events occurring farther ahead than one time intervalwill not be stored unless the necessary data could only nowbe available.

Some Adva1taqes and Disadvantaqes of Computer Gaming.

Computzer qamee are strictly aialytical games. They areai'other tool for the analysis and evaluatio, of y.militaryoperations.

The chief advantage ot computer gaming is replication.Within a reasonable anc.s.:nt of time, a gawe can be replicatedsufficientlV often to obtain a range of results which givesai• indication of ". how bad the situation could be, howgood it might be, and what the average results a.-e." 3 0 Thenone or more parazeters cý-n 3e varied, another series pliyed,

6-27

azi a new distribution of results obtained. A comparison ofte distributions reveals the effects of the parameter vari-ation or variations.

A comuter can perform a tremendous volume of routineeulculations and bookkeeping, and examine and consider morefactors than hunw-n players. Additionally, it can play theam* gak over and over again without becoming bored, makingmistake: in arithmetic, forgetting to follow some of the,ules, neglecting to consider all pertinent aspects, orinjecting into the game information acquired in a precedingrun.

On the debit side, the development of a computer model,its programming, and debugging may require a great deal ofeffort and time, far more than usually needed for other typesof gas. For instance, Morgenthaler noted that one medium-sized coputer simulation took one man-year to formulate, pro-gram, and check. He pointed out, however, that as analystsacquire that priceless commodity, experience, the time re-quired for model building and orogramming will reduced,

Dr. A. W. Pennington of the Planning Analysis Grcup ofthe Applied Physics Laboratory of thr:. Johns Hopkins Univer-sity noted a second difficulty "I feel that the real linmi-tation of the (comprter) war game is the difficulty of trans-lating the intention of the model to the computer.'- 4 6 ClaytonJ. Thomas, in Chapter 10 of Proqress in Operations Researchvoiced a si-ilar opinion. 4 7

Although some computer games dealing wit- ground oper-ations include the physical and mlitary characteristics ofterra•in, their insertion in sone games have presented pro-gr-in and storage pDroblers. In an. article published in1960, CLYonel E. S. Maloney, USMC, stated that this diffi-culty is a fundamertal limitation to the applicatiP t ofcmputer gaming to ground operations, and he wrote: "Themathemticai express:i:n of such LactorS as cover an6 conceal-ment, vjsib-lit, _•nd rafficability for each distinct ter-rain section has be-r zttempted but rey.ires such a tremendoou

ount of detail as -o Ibsorb, or cX7LU-:, the entire capacltyof the computer. T-hez- -s at this tumE n. proven and rullyaccepted method of inoerting tarraln factors in a computer-piayd war gzme."4

Because computer qames are analytical games, readersare always cautioned that the outputs of a game are nobetter than the inputs, or that Lhe method is no betterthan the inputs. "This, of course, is true blit I wouldpoirt out also that this ia true of any study and if validinputs are available for other types of studies they mustalso be available for war games. in addition, I wouldI point out that in every operations research study mathe-matical approximations are made just so the mathematicsare tractjble and often t-ese assumptions are not immedi-ately apparent to any but the most sophisticated mathema-tician. This never need be the case in a war game...When the problem can be reduced to a logical flow, but theinteractions are too complicaled ior direct calculation ina reasonable Lime, use the digital computer" 4 6 (game).

Since the late 1950's, computer gaming hat prebablybecome the most popular form of war gaming, and a sur-r.ri singly large number and .. riety of modelb and routineshave been developed by both military activities and civiliancontract organizations. In early 1966 about seventy-fivecomputer models and routines were beina uped to asast instudies and analyses of cold, limited, and general war.These models ranged from tactical games such as CARMONETTEIIf to strategic u•._mulations such as STAGE.

CARMWNETTE III -a5 developed by the Research AnilysisCorporation for the Army. This game plays the actions andinteractions of opposing ground units. it includes individ-ual soldiers, mortars and artillery pieces as well al sup-porting tAnks, helicopcers, and aircraft. STAGE, at theopposite end of the spectr-tim, was developed by TechnicalOperations, Inc. the Air Force. ThiL gam~e simulate-two-sided nuclear exchange, and plays such details is &--cra-ft scrtiee, fuel states, missile flights, and groundzeros of 1P,4 vidual weapo ns.

Th i.IJ: zion =o the computer lames -at have been oeve±-c-Ln I to s :_-,late around and air warfa-e, a -u:r.ber have been2evisod tc simulate the various ispect- _,ava- warfare.A few of t ese Qan-es are ni~z~ssed in zhc resta-ining part

o :f'is chapter.

'L'

J.IJ,•aGe Program Com;Duter Games3 5 , 6

As part of the Navy War Games Program, a number ofcomputer games and gwme analyses hav been developed andconductod by technical support groups operating •er thedirection of the Assistant to the Chief of Naval Operationsfor War Gaming Matters (Op-0C).* The major customers fortheme gar.s and analyses are the Joint War Games Agency ofthe Joint ý.liefs of Staff, the operating forces of theNavy, and ',tudy groups sponsored by the Chief of NavalOperations. *t

The Planning Analysis Group (PAG) cf the Atplied PhysicsLaboratory, Johns Hopkins University, is the technical sup-port group that develops and conducts simulations and analysesof naval warfare. Among the games produced by this group arethe ?•trike Warfare Model Mark II, the Anti-Air Warfare SystemsInteraction Model, the Sea Warfare Intermediate model, and the5S8M Detection Model.

Strike Warfare Model Mark II

This game is an improved and expanded version ofan earlier strike warfare model. It provides a meansfor rapidly examining the interplay of opposing plansand forces in P two-sided, global, nuclear war, thuspermitting numarous runs of the same situation. Thewmdel is an event-store type. Running time is approx-4mately two hours. Outputs include a battle history,which contains an account of each event that occurred.

*The ozher part of the Navy War Games Program consistsof *Tho examination of current fleet and force exercises andplans uaing the Naval Electronic Warfare Simulator (NEWS)at the Naval War Onllege." 3 0

**Thomas Bus'o. "War Gaming in the Navy." A lecturedelivered at th* School of Naval Commuand and Staff, NavalWar College, Nsewport, R. .1 S-ptember 29, 1965.

6-30 - j

The area of operations for the game is dividedinto blocks measuring five degrees of latitude byfive degrees of longitude, Each base is locatedwithin its appropriate block. A base is a targetin the game. Bases may be airfields, carriers,missile sites, and so on. The characteristics ofthe bases are inputs to the game.

Characteristics of the opposing forces and thedetails of the opposing plans are also inputs tothe game. These inputs may be real or hypothetical,and include such details as take-off bases, take-off times, and flight profiles.

Play begins with one of the opposing sidesinitiating a nuclear attack. After a time delay,the side under attack takes retaliatory action.Aborts, in-flight and warhead eliabilities arestochastically examined. The impact points ofballistic missiles aic determined and damage tobases assessed.

The game also includes in-fLight Interactionsbetween the penetrators (bombers, air-to-sirfacemissiles and decoys) and the defenses (interceptorsand surface-to-air missiles), and the refuelingand rearming of aircraft that return to base.

Anti-Air Warfare Systems Interaction Model

The Systems Interaction Model (SIM) provides ameans for evaluating the antiair warfare capabil-ities of a naval task force agains- an air threat.By a choice of inputs, the user can describe thedesired tactical situation, the doctrines of theopposing sides, and the characteristics of opposingforces and weapons. The game can simulate allaspects of a naval force versus air attack selected

portions of the defensive system or, Iy mefns ofsuitable inputs, air attacks against land bases.

The model is capable of conducting & search-for-t>e-fleet game in an area of up t3 16,000,000 bquare

miles, but usually uses smalIer areas and situ-ations in which the approximate location of thefleet is known.

The concept of sector defense is employed.A vital area contains the ships that performthe task force's basic mission; other sectorsoutside the vital area contain radar pickets,early warning aircraft, and combat air patrols.However, by using suitable inpu.ts to eiescribethe sectors, almost any disposition includingdispersed dispositions can be represented.

The task force can include any desired navalvessels, and employ any desired tactics, weapons,and sensor systems. Weapons include shipbornemissiles and guns and airborne air-to-air mis-siles. Both defensive and offensive electroniccountermeasures can be played.

"The attack is composed of one or more raids,each having one or more aircraft, which fly amission profile controlled by take-off time,course, speed, altitude and maneuvering inputs.The raids may conduct search and attack with air-borne radar, passive ECM equipment, and offensiveweapons which include air-to-surface missiles,rockets, and bombs in various combinations. Raidsmay also use active ECM equipment capable of jam-ming search and track radars and cammunications.Fighter cover and decoys may also be provided forthe attack." 5 5

Damage to ships is computed from deliveryaucuracy, warhead size, and target characteristics.

Sea Warfare Intermediate Model (SWIM)

The Sea Warfare gdme is designed to simulate theplay of a blue carrier striking force and supportingantisubmarine watfare units aaainst a coordinatedattazk by Red sui-moarines armed with torpedoes andcruise missiles.

6-32

A The area of operations is a rectangle which

may represent any desired size and locattonThe striking forces consist of a c•rLier, cruisers,and destroyers, and it may be supported !y ahunter-killer group. Ship, weapon and sensor

4 characteristics are inputs, as are the positionsof ships in the force and group dispositions.Ship positions in the formations remain constantthroughout the game; however, destroyers mayleave the formations to prosecute a submarinecontact, returning afterwards to their originalpositions. The carrier of the hunter-killergroup provides fixed-wing aircraft and helic-nte".sfor patrols and the prosecution of submarine contacts.

Red forces consist of nuclear and conventionalsubmarines. Prior to play, a number of the sub-marines may be assigned cruise missiles for useagainst the surface forces. The missiles areequipped with terminal active-radar homing.

"Communications between the units in the Blueforce is assumed throughout the game so that thecurrent status of all 'datums' is known to themain task force and so that units on the same

datum carry ;ut coordinated tactics. . . There isno communication between the individual Red sub-marines during the game; however; it is assumedthat all have access to periodic broadcasts froma Red Intelligence Center (RIC)." 5 6

The game usually begins with both sides in ahigh state of readiness. The carrier strikingforce is deployed in a general operating area;Red submarines are on patrol stations and havegeneral knowledge )f Blue's operating area.Depending upon input times, the Blue force prc-ceeds to a launch area, launches its strikes,and moves to the recovery area; the Red sub-marines leave thiir stations and attempt toclose, and then attack. The hunter-killer groupconducts searches and conducts hold-down tacticsuntil the strikes are launched or until an overt

6-33

attack by Red submarines. A concentrationof submPrine contacts during the gmne, or& submaiine attack can cause changes inBlue' s timetable.

While this gaane does not contain pro-visicns for ved air attacks eii the glueforces, it is planned to include thisfeature in future vesions.

SSBM Dtection Model

TVis model simulates baliisItic-niqss,`esubmarin-es approachingc mY s.ile launchincgsiteH off A coast line, aý-.d their -actions with submarine surveillance syst-sand associated aircraft.

Detections obtained by the surveillancesystem are ralayed to antisubmarine warfarepatrol &ircraft. Depending upon the infor-mation receiv.d, the aircraft proceed alonga bearing line or t• a iesignated area andattempt to Ctect, localize, and kill. Air-

craft have the capŽ,),biity of dete •cti4 sub-marincs by radar, visually, or by meant, ofsonobuoye. Freighters proceeding thIoughthe area ailo;o for cont-cts which may bemisclassified by tlne surveillanze system.

Su'bmwanes may detect aircraft, andatttxpt to remain undetected ;y the aii--raft. They c-ui albo delect the freighters.Conventional suttaritneN may reýcharge theirb&tteries on the surface or by snorkelinq.Nuclear sulazi .es r~a-,ir submerged, andtransit the are.i ei ther above or beoi,-w thelayer.

in additiri to ths four games described .azwin Anilysis Groiip has .evel-oped a numr, r of

gums and ccapauter routines. These include air strikemodels, antiair warfare models, antisubmarine barrier

6-34

models, a submarine versus submarine apprcach and attackmodel, and a torpedo salvo assessment routine. This lat-ter modc1 is desiqned to provide the data needel to assessthe effects of non-homing torpedo firings for both hand-played and computer games.

All current Planning Anialysis Group models are run on1BM 7 O1u -,nd •094 computers. In most cases reprogramuingwould be necessary if different computers were used.

Uncla fled descriptions of the Planning AnalysisGroup's games are contained in The Navy War Gazes Manual 5 5

and the Planning Analysis Group's publication, SimulationDgest_ 1.56 Reports published by PAG are distributed bythe Assistant for War Gaming Matters, Office of the Chiefof Navai Operations (Op-06C).

The Computation and Analysis Laboratory of the U. S.N, !Weapons Laboratory is the qroup that provides tech-nical support to Op-06C in the major areas of amphibiouswarfare and damage assessment. This activity has devel-oped three amphibious warfare models: Embarkation Plan-"ning Support, Supporting Arr.s, and Ship-to-Shore.

Embarkation Planninq Su2port- Model

'This inodb.l can sirulate the evibarkaticý of anentire Marine Expeditionary Corps with associatedsnipping. Minimum amphibious and %.:,TS (MilitarySea Transportation Servicel shipj, aq requirementsare detetrined, assigned ct ports of embarkationand scheduled in o manner which will accomplish em--barkation and movement to the pre- :ehearsal or Amphib-ious Operation Arc- (AOA) i.n the shortest possible

e . By varying input parameters, various alt•<•-P, a<•..4ves •f any :4ivzn plan can be /,nvestigated." 5 5

.•Sup~rtinq A-r~js Model

I :The Supporting Arms Computer Model simulatesthe naval gunfire and air support portions of anwmphibious operation duiing the pre-assault phasesr re- -da', and D-day (p•,:-H-hour) time period)

6-35

I

The naval gunfire portion of the model sim-ulates target acquisition, firings, and damage;the air support portion simulates planned andalert status air strikes and consequent damage.Damage to aircraft by opposition gr:undfire canalso be played.

Weapons data can be supplied by the NavalWeapons Laboratory. Oper-tional data, however,is supplied by the user for his particularoperation plan.

Game outputs list the status of each element(targets, aircraft, etc.) at desired times. Sum-maries provide such information as types and amountof ordnance expended, targets destroyed, and numberof sorties flown.

Ship-to-Shore Model

The Ship-to-Shore mr-el pro, Jes a means forplaying in det.-l "t)- movement of troops, vehicles,equipment and supplies from ships to a beach orlanding zone by means of surface craft, LST's, andhelicopters.

This model can be used-to determine the craft a.,dshipping requirements to effectively achieve a cer-tain build-up rate ashore, as well as the time re-quired to land a certain force level or the timerequired to complete the operation. A wide varietyof present or proposed characteristics of ships,landing craft, helicopters, force composition, andbeach handling rates can be investigated." 5 5

"Le•ift 157

The Sealift I game simulates the convoy-submarinebattle. It wos developed by the Naval Warfare AnalysisGroup, Centut for Naval Analyses, to assist in the studyof convoy protection, primarily aqainst submarines, andte axatne its effects on the sealift supply rates in alimited war.

During the game, and at times deterrined by inp-ts,convoys are formed in • homie -o.t. Each convoy is composed

6-36

i

ir

j ,of three types of ships: cargo, antisubmarine, and for-ward screen ships. The forward screen way also include"aircraft, sonobuoys, and submarines. The ships in aconvoy are drawn from a port "pool." "This pool isstocked by ships from returning convoys and by the shipbuilding rate. If the required ships are available, theconvoy rails toward its delivery poxt; if not, the gameis stopped, and a 'printout' is made of the game resultsto date including the event that caused the stoppage."

As the conv'y and its escorts proceed toward thedelivery port, the ships encounter various types anddegrees of opposition: mine fields, air attacks, sur-face attacks, and submarine attacks. Each of the varioustypes of Dpposition may be included, or not, as desired.The emphasis, however, is on th._ submarine opposition.Ships lost during the transit are recorded by ship types,method ani time of loss. Losses of escorts decrease theantisubmarine capability of the force.

"After reaching the delivery port, the c.'voy "nloadsand stays in port a prescribed number of days. Duringthis period the cargo ships are again liable to air attack.Of those ships sunk in an air attack, one-half are assuzed ito be sunk before unloading and one-half after unloading."

On the homeward trip, the co'nvoy reverses its route,

and is subject to t;,e same kinds of opposition that itencou 4 t-c7eA on the outbound trip. When it rea hes portthe ships are placed by types in various "ship pools."

The ship pools are then used to make up future convoys.

There can be up to three types o.: submarines in thegame. At the start of :lay, a selected percentage of theopposition submerines are in port and the remainder are onstation. The time remaining ,Tn station for those on patrol±s determined by a u-iform raniom distributior

As the game get- under way, submarines in port depat tfor their p~trol areas at times determined by inputs.Those in port are subject to damar' by strikes, Additior.-

ally, ne'. coihstruction adds to the su•marine force as thewar progresses.

)-

£<ýia;rines in "ransit to and from station encounter7¢c•cc :ind bad sonar 'conditions, and are subject to varioustyp:Ž of opposition and interactions including antisub-marline barriers and possible attacks by a hunter-killer

ff a submarine detects the convoy, it tries to pene-trate the convoy's defense and sink cargo ships. Escortsthen form surface attack units and attempt to locate anddestroy the submarine. If the user so desires, the sub-marines may attack escorts rather than cargo vessels, i.e.,conduct an anti-escort campaign.

When a submarine has either completed its time onstation or fired its maximum permissible number of tor-pedoes, it begins the return trip. If and when a sub-marine reaches its home port, it will stay there for apredetermined period of time for overhaul and resupply,and then sail again for a patrol area.

Barrier Submarine Computer Game. 4 8

This game was designed and Drograzomed by CommanderWilliam A. Van Train, USN, in partial fulfillment of thereqpirements for a degree at the United States Naval Post-graduate School, Monterey, California. It was evolved toillustrate the advantagesof using computer gaming to assistin the design of submarine barriers, and was programmed forplay on the 1604 Computer manufactured by the Control DataCorporation..

Essentially, the game provides a means for conductingparametric analyses of submarine barriers to determine:

(1) The best design of a submarine barrier, and

(2) The optimal sample size required for a computeroutput ir crder to achieve a reasonable degree of sensi-tivity in the analysis.

Xn the program a game play begins with the attempt ofa single transiting submarine to penetr-ate a submarinebArrier, and ends when the penetrator succeeds or is

6-38

destroyed. A game unit constitutes 100 p..ays, and a singledata run is as many game units as the analyst desires.

For the play of a data run, a one, two, or three linebarrier is selected. Barrier submarines are positionedprobabilistically in the vicinity of their assigned stations,and the transitor is assigned a track angle in a similarfashion. The transitor then attempts to penetrate thebarrier. Following its success or failure, the barriersubmarines are redistributed, the transitor repositioned.and anotber play started. After 100 plays the data arestored, and another unit of plays started. Upon completionof the predetermined number of game units, a statisticalanalysis subroutine computes the sample mean and varianceof detections, interceptions, and kills for each 100 p!ays,and additional data for the specified number of 100-transitruns. The general procedures are shown in the simplifiedflow chart of Figure 6-7.

* •6-39

______________________________f ST OREDATA

ENTERBARR-I-ER

SET UP ERASE RUN

NEXT BARRIER TRANSIT

GAME UN IT

NO No

tooSNo YES

YE RECORDFLO•T•A.N.•RT - B•ARRIE•RSBA N MODEL

YLeoIS v DEETO

# S TORE[ CEPTION

MEANS III

vFigure 6-7

4RECORD

14ALT CEPT ION

S.... ,N O

K ILLt

l b YES

" ,:" •',RECORD

FLOW CHART BARRIER SUBMARINE MODEL

Figure 6-7

6-40

APPENDIX A

CHANCE DEVICES

Chance Devices.

A coin may be used to simulate an event with a 0.5probability of success; an ordinary die to determinethe success or failure of an event ih a war game havinga 1/6, 1/3, 1/2, 2/3 or 5/6 probability of occurrence.Both are chance devices of somewhat limited usefulness.A more versatile device is nothing more than a box or'bag containing, say, 10 cards, each bearing a differentdigit. If a card is drawn with any nuiuber from 1 to 8,an event with a probebility of happening of 0.8 occurs*if a 9 or a 0, it does not happen. The card is replaced,the box shaken, and it is ready for the next drawing.Or in the proportions indicated by past records, thecards might be labelled acco.4ing to different weatherconditions. Then if a card is drawn with the word"fog," a heavy blanket settles over the area of opera-tions. Various types of roulette wheels and spinningdevices such as those used in the Coast Artillery Game 1 6

are sometimes useful, and even roller skate wheels withsubdivided r.-ims have been employed a;s random devices.But despite the usefulness of some of these methods, thetraditional--and until recently the 'most popular--wargaming chance device is a pair of ordinary 6-sided dice.

Table A-1 illustrates how a pair of 6-sided dicemay be employed to produce various probabilities. Thus,if an event has a 50 percent probability of happening,and a roll of the dice results in a 2, 4. 5, 6, or 8,it happens; if any other value turns up, it doesn't.Again, if the probability is 0.80, and the upturned faces

) A-1

• •f. MMTI•G PRO14 A S1• ROLL OF TWO 6-SIDED DICE

IM•G•KXIXTYVALUE OF THE THROW

.05 3_.1

. 3 or 4

.20 or 7

.25 2, 3, ox 7 1

.30 6oc7 or 7

.35 3, 6, or 7I

.160 2, 4, 5, G.,o 1

.45 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or ).2

.50 2, 4, 5, 6, ox

ss 4, 3. 4. 5, 6, or 8

.02, 4, 5, 6, 7, o. r 10

2. , 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8,. or 17

.8 .. 6 5 , 7, 0. -i, or 12

SS• 2 . 3 , 4 . ýk, 0, 7 , 8, til or L 2

- • , 3, 4, 5-, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 1=x:

!1500 f , 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. 8, 9 10. 111 or 12

A-?

of the two dice add up to any of the following: 2, 4,5, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 12: the event occurs.*

Somewhat reminiscent of an early World War II put-it-together-yourself approximation of the globe is a relativelynew and simple chance device, the 20-sided or random numbergenerating die. It is in the form of an icosahedron, one ofthe five regular polyhedra. Each of the 20 bounding surfacesis an equilateral triargle, and each of the 10 digits, 0 to 9,appear twice on its faces. The probabil4ty of any particulardigit appearing on a single roll of a die is 2 or 0.10,

2 + 18and all have an equal probability of showing. Dice in theform of icosahedra are packaged in sets of three, each one ofa different color, so that one, two, or three random digitsmay be produced by a throw of one, two or three dicerespectively.**

For an 80 per cent probability, a throw of an unbiased20-sided die must turn up any one of 8" digits. Which 8, ofcourse, are determined in advance of the roll. The usualchoices are 1 to 8 with 9 and 0 spelling failure; or 0 to 7inclusive, yes; 8 and 9, no.

Two different colored dice are useful for simulating anevent with a probability of success of say, 0.41. A red diemight be selected for the first digit of the number; a yellow,for the second. Since with two dice there are 100 equallylikely ways of turning up a two digit number, 00, 01, 02, . .

to 99, then 41 of the numbers, usually 01 to 41, or 00 to 40,are selected to indicate success.

*With the exceptions of 0.25, 0.50, and 0.75, the prob-abilities listed in Table 1 are approximate values. Forexample, the probability of rolling a 3 with a pair of unbiaseddice is 2 , or 0.056; of rolling a 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 or 10, is 22

36 36or 0.611. (See Table B-2, Appendix B.)

**Sets of 3--one each of red, yellow, and blue--are manu-factured and sold by the Japanese Standards Association,Kobikikan-Bekkan Building, 6-1, Ginza-higashi, Chuo-ku, Tokyo,Japan. The price is $2.50 per set, plus $0.70 postage (up to9 sets)..

A-3

Three 20-sided dice are used in the same mannez as twoto derive probabilities such as 0.504 that are expressed inthousandths. However, three-place ace,-t.cy is seldom por-sible or Aven desirable in war gaming and, for that reason,three dice are not used very ofter for e-zluating interactions.

Twenty-sided dice are also used for randomly rounding-offfractinal values. For example, supp-se that the applicationof che damage rules in a war game resulted in 1.75 hits, thena pair of dice may be rolled to determine whether one or twohits are assessed. A roll of A tu 75 rules two hits; a rollof 76 to 00, ine hit.

Currently, the most widely used war gaming chancedevice is a table of random numbers. A portion of sucha table is shown below:

09 10 25 27 91

40 46 59 89 64

87 41 30 06 53

68 95 56 09 47

81 33 80 83 28

14 96 15 09 50

5 05 31 61 84

91 88 24 32 97

48 46 80 68 53

10 29 76 42 90

The numbers in a random number tabil are grouped forcanvenience in reading. The coYumns in sone tables rconsistof rows of two digits, as above; in others, of rows of thrae,four or five digits. Usual4y, there i3 an extra space be-tween every five or ten row3.

A-4

Random number tables are often compiled by electronicdevices or computers. A numiber of tables is available inpamphlet or book form; for example, the Table of 105,000Random Decimal Digits prepared by -he Interstate CommerceCommission's Bureau of Transport Economics and Statistics,and the RAND Corporation's A Million Random Digits publishedby the Free Press, Glenco, Illinois. Smaller tables arefound in the back of such books as The Compleat Strateqystby J. D. Williams (McGraw Hiill, 1934), and in the controlgroup's section of the rules of sorre manual war games.

Random number tables can also be constructed by anymanual process which selects one of the ten digits in sucha way that each i- equally likel., to he chosen, and that

each selection is in no way affected u' previous selections.For instance. a random number table can be prepared, threedigits at a time, by rolling three unbiased 20-sided dice,and writing dow,. T:he digits :; they appear on the upper faces

of, let's say, the red, yellow anC blue dice. Or a randomnumber table might be constructed, one digit at a time, byI drawing at random .--- of ten cards numbered from 0 to 9 froma box, then replc'cing the card, shaking the box and drawingagain.

A third method uses an ordinary die and a table such as

shown below. If t)-- first roll results in a 3, and the

SECOND ROLL

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 1 2 .3 I4 5 6

FIRST 2 7 8 9 0 1 2

R3 3 4 5 6 7 8ROLL

4 9 0 1 2 3 4

5 5 6 9 0

_ _ A -5

K_____ ___ -A-5

second in a 6, then the f..rst digit in the random number )table is an 8. If the next trial results in a roll of a 2and a 4, reapectively, the 3econd digit in the table is a 0,and so on. If, on any trial, a 6 is turned up on the firstroll, the die is rolled again.

In order to use a random number table, a starting numberis chosen at random, and a direction of movement selected.Thus, prior to the play of a game, for example, the number 89in the second row from the top in the random number tablPshown on page. A-4 is selected as the first number, and thedecision made to proceed downward- (Tables usually coverseveral pages and the direction of mover nt can be up, down,right or left.) It is also decided that numbers beginningwith 01 and ending with the given probability times 100 willbe used to represent successes, i.e. 01 to 20 will indicatesucca~s when a weapon with a 0.20 single shot hit probabilityis fired, 21 to 00 failure, and so on.

As the game progresses a weapon is fired fi.'e times,each firing having a hit pzvbability of 0.20. The startingnuber, 89, rules a miss on the first firing. Tne resultsof the %-c.<t four firings are: 06, a hit; 09, a hit; 83, amiss; and 09, a hit. Thus, 'n this particular cabe, chancehas determined that the weapon scores t'-ree hits out of fivefirings, even though its single shot hit probability is only0.20.

As each number in t- random number -- ble is used it. iscrossed out. Assuming that ihe sam& weapon .s again tiredfive times, and its hit Probability remains unchanged, thenext five numbers in the table (61, 32, 68, 42, and 91) rulesfive misses.

Randc- number tables are also used in a manner similartc 20-sided dice to round-off fractional values. Thus, ifduring a game it is determined that 3.28 aircraft are de-stroyed, and it is desired to round-off this a.ý-unt by arandom round-off process, then the next unu.ed number in t"13table is used to deteiniine whether three or fc-ýr aircraft aredeotroyed. A number from 01 to 28 rules that four aircraftare destroyed- one fmv. 29 to 00, three aircraft. Thc nextunused number in the ran~dom number table on page A-4 is 64ý

A-6

therefore, in this instance, three aircraft are destroyed.

Where a sequence of possible events is concerned, oneof two alternative chance evaluation procedures may be used.For example, suppose that the situation involves a fighterattacking a bomber and that the events are:

1. The fighter acquires the target on its air-intercept6ciudl (detection);

2. The fighter attains A firing position (conversion);

3. The fighter's weapons destroy the bomber (kill); andthe respective probabilities of success of each event are known.Then one procedure is to use a chance device to determine if adetection occurs (assuming that there is an opportunity for adetection), and if a detection does occur, to use the chancedevice tu determine whether or not the fighter attains afiring position, and so forth. A second procedure is to com-pute the overall probability of sliccess by multiplying theprobabilities of success of each of the component events, andto use this value in conjunction with a chance device todetermine whether or not the fighter destroys the bomber.

Ano&:ner example of the use of chance devices is i.lus-

trated ;y Table A-2. The values in the right column aretaken from Figure 3-6, Chapter III. The first column relatesthe probabilittzies (as taken fLoom Figure 3-6) associated withthe hours in the right column to the roll of a pair of 20-sided dice; the second, with the numbers found in a table ofrandom :,mbers, and the third, with th.. throw of a pair ofordinary 6-s-lde- dice. 1f, for example, a roil of the 20-sided dice, or a table of random numb -s turns ip any numberfrom 46 to 75 inclusive. or the regular dice show a 6 or a 7,then the equipment will function 700 hours without maintenance.

A-7

p :. . ; J,•

Table A-2

W= SINCE LAST MAINTENANCE PERIOD TO BREAKDOWN

Decision Numbers Hours

20-sid& dice Random Numter Table 6-sided dice

01 - 05 01 - 05 3 400

06 - 20 06 - 20 or 4 500

21 - 45 21 - 45 2, 3, or 7 60C

46 - 75 46 - 75 6 r 7 700

76 - 95 76 - 95 2 or 7 800

-0 96 - 00 3 900

It is interestiiag to note the heading of the first threecolvmmis of T3.1•%,e R- 2 : "Decision Numbers," This term is usedbc-ausA. he deciions made by the umpire or by the computerare &?-ai3•z2.d by,• t1>- numbers turned up by the dice or arandom iumbar t1z0. It is a relatively new war gamx.ig cerma!-4 h4 bsarz ap'Ui.d chiefly to decisions made in accordancewith n ,r.4c'% iad from random number tables, although itia L al1: ;ý,-r.icable to numbers produced by dice as illus-tratd in Table A-2. Usually, a table such as Table A-2 con-taimneonly the column of decision numbers that is associatedWith the type of chance device providet for the gam e.

In coapucer games the computer generates or stores ran-dam rninber, arnd these numbers are used to de t ermine the out-m of chance events i.- st-:hastic models. The NEWS dam-age

cvqupAtr behavies in somewhat the same way. It measures theft9 at tho tiUw of firing, looks at the stored probabilityoGtt* Vwapn vea'sus the t,, -t at that particular range and,by ms of a rariAdzin - , 'omes up with a hit, or a

A-8

APPE•tMIX F

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

When a coin is tossed the -esults may be tabulated asfollows:

Table B-i

Number of Heads Probability

0.5

0 0.5

or shown graphically as in Fiq'ire B-I.

Probability

0 L/0 .1

Numrber oi HeadsFigure B-1.

These are two examples of a simple probability dist-ibut'on,a tabular and a qraphicai. In the rr.lph, the ;'aiues of therandom vari-able--in this case the nuwmer oýf he~s--ap: aialong the abscissa or hori7ontal axis: the probaliiitythe ordinate or verticil axis.

Since a coin cannot show bonh a head and : ta~ii thescevents are mutually evr'11)qive. Since it must faii. in one orthese ways, the sum of the prob-bilLties eq!als I, or ze-t.•intv.

¶ B-I

If two bombers in an aggregated force of four carrynuclear bombs, two conventional bombs, and two are destroyeden route to the target, how,' does the umpire determine whichtwo "re destroyed' Let A and B represent the two aircraftcarrying nuclear weapons, and C and D those with the lesslethal punch. As shown below, there are 6 possible combina-tions* of two aircrait:

A anti E and C

A and C B and D

A and D C and D

The first includes both bombers packing a nuclear wallop;the next four, one nuclear bombing plano; and the last, nonuclear carrying aircraft. The graphical probability distri-butio,. is shown in Figure B-2. The number of nuclear bombcarrying aircraft destroyed may be dc'termined by the roll Lfa single regular die: 1, ino nuclear carrying aircraft destroyed,

6/6 L

54/6

o 3/60

S)/)

Number of Nuclear Po,-& C rrvinqAircraft r-es roed

Fiqure B-2

*A combination is a group of thinra$ without regard <'

ord.r. Tbhva A anr B or 5 •n;. A. are one .......... ion.

nPA 2

- -- .------ . . .. ~--4

2,3, 4, or 5, one such bomber killed; and 6, both aircrcftwith nuclear weapons destroyed. Or 20-sided dice or a randomnumber table might mr" e the decision: 01 to 17, 18 to 83,and 64 to 00; 0, 1, and 2 nuclear carr.ing bombers respec-tively. Again, a 20-"ided die or a tab.U3 of random numberscould be used as follows: 1, 0 nuclear bomb lugging planes;2, 3, 4, and 5, 1 such airplane; 6, 2 of the bombers with thebig payload; 7, 8, 9, and 0, no go; and another roll is made,or the next number in the table selected.

When something can happen in m ways, and something elsein n ways, together they can happen in m times n ways. Forinstance, 1 regular die can fall in 6 ways; two dice, in 36ways. Extending this idea, three dice can fall in 6 x 6 x 6,or 216 ways. If a missile can either hit or miss i~s target,then in two independent trials there are 2 x 2 or 2 , or 4possible results: 2 hits; 1 hit, 1 miss; 1 miss, 1 hit; ortwo misses. When three missiles are launched there areor 8 possible results, and so on.

In the case of two regular dice, there are 36 equallylikely ways in which they can fall; 11 different values from2 to 12 that then can show. The probability of any partic-ular value appearing on a single throw pf two dice is, there-fore, the number of ways that the value can appear divided by36. Thus, as shown in Table B-2, a 10 can turn up in threeways: 4, 6; 5, 5; or 6, 4, and the probability of rolling a10 is 3/36. The probability distribution is delineated inFigure B-3. The random variable, the value of the throw, isshown along the abscissa; the probability along the ordinate.A table such as Table A-1 in Appendix A is compiled bychanging the desired probability into 36ths and finding anumber of throws with a total probability equal to the de-sired probability. For example: 0.60 equals 0.60 x 36 or

21.6. 3636 This valu& is approximately equal to 22. 22 is

36 36equal to the sum of the probabilities of rolling a 2, 4, 5, 6,7, or 10. (Other throws with probabilities adding up to 22/36could just as well be used: 2, 3, 4, 5,' 6, 7, and 12, forinstance.)

B-3

I: I I I

I .. I 1

t '1* ! . 1 - / •

I I i !I IV I I

S, i !I IiI I I d ,I

U--II__ _I

, j

-r I

Ii -I ' .

PROBABILITY PROSASI LITY

!4

36

4- 4

2

36 36

Z4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 it 12

I VALUE OF THE THROW

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FOR TWO DICEIIGO'RE 0-36 0 -86"H.

IiI!

Counting hits and misses, there are 2 x 2 x 2 or 8 waysin which three firings of a gun can affect the target. Theseare listed in the left colunLn of Table B-3. If the single shot

hit probability' is 0.4, the probability of a miss is 1-0.4,or 0.6. A method for computing the hit probability of eachcombination is illustrated in the second column of the table.The proabilities of getting two hits and a miss, or one hitand two misses are summed, and the third coluxnm gives theprobabilities of getting 3, 2, 1, and 0 hits; 0.064, 0.288,0.,.,2, and 0.216, respectively. These are sometimes referredto as the probabilities of "exactly" 3 hi'.s, exactly 2 hits,etc. This is to distinguish them from other probabilities,for example, the probability of "at least" 2 hits, which inthis case is the sum of the probabilitie.- of getting 3 and 2hitsi, or 0.064 plus 0.288, or 0.352. The probability ofgetting at least one hit is the sum of the probabilities ofexactly,3, 2, and 1 hits, 0.064 + 0.288 + 0.432, or 0.784.*The chances of getting "at most" 1 h..r Lhat is the probabilityof getting 1 or 0 hits, is 0.432 + 0.7'6, or 0.648.

*The probability of at lea3t one success in r independenttrials can also be found by the following for'nulaz

P! = 1 - (1-p)n

For example- Let p = 0.4, and n 34= i.-(1-0,4)3 1-0.216 0.784

This check& with the results ob'tained above.

The •,mnber of firings, n, necessary to obtain a probabilityof PI of at least one hit with a SSHP of p is:

n log (l-P)

Thus. the number of firings needed to obtain a probabilit'- of(.7E4 of at I.itst one hit when the SSHP or t equals 0.4 is:

n- log (l 0. 764 loc 0.216 3log (1 - 0.4,1 log 0.6

B. 6

Table B-3

THREE ROUNDS - SSHP = 0.4(H indicated a hit; M, a niiss)

Number ofWAYS Probabilities Hits

HHH 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 = .064 0.064 3

HUM 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 = .096HMH 0.4 x 0.6 x 0.4 - .096 0.288 2MHH 0.6 x 0.4 x 0.4 = .096

HMM 0.4 x 0.6 x 0.6 = .144MHiM 0.6 x 0.4 x 0.6 = .144 0.432 1.4MH 0 a6 x 0.6 x 0A4 = .144

MMM 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 = .216 0.216 0

If the synitc! n hrepresents the probability of exa,.tly

h events occurring Ain independent trials, and p is the prob-ability of occurrence in a singlet the the following formua-can be used in place of the method, indicated in Table B-3:

B-7

7A

n,- n' ph (1-p)n-h 'see footnote 1)

h! (n-h)!

Thus, the probability of exactly 3 hits in 3 trials when theSSHP or p equals 0.4 is:

3 P 3 = 3: 0.43(1_0.4)3-3

3! (3-3)! see footnote 2)

= 6 (0.064) (1), or 0.0646

The probability of exactly 2 hits in 3 trials is:

3 2 3! 143 -2! (3-2): 0.4"(1-0.4)

= ._6 (0.16)(0.6), or 0.288 j4

P

1) This is called the "binomial iaw." The values of n h versush is known as the "binomial distribution." This distributionis a discrete distribution, i.e., a missile can score a nit, or2 hits, etc., but not 1.17 or 2.39 hits, anc so on. Thebinomial law is useful in many aspects of war garning.

Two other well known distributions are the "Poisson distri-bution" and the "normal (or Gaussian) distribution." The formeris a discrete function that approximates the b~nomial distri-bution when there are a large number of trials and the prob-ability of success of a single trial is small. The normaldistribution is a continuous function.

2) n! iv :ead, "n factorial"; 3!, 3 factorial, etc. 3! equals3 x 2 x 1; 2! equals 2 x 1, etc. 0! equals I by definition,i.e., (3-3)! . ~

A n1ubez raised to a zero power equals 1. Thus, (1-0.4),33

The probability of exactly 1 hit equals:

3 P1 = 3: 0.41 (1-0.4) 3-1 = 0.432,1.: (3-I)

and the probability or 0 hits:

30 3: 0.40 (1-.4) = 0.-160o (3-0).:

Since the events are mutually exclusive, and 3, 2, 1, and 0hits exhaust all possibilities, the s=m of the probabilitiesequals 1. ?or gaming purposes the probabilities would mostlikely be rounded to 2 places, i.e., to 0.06, 0.29, 0.43 and0.22 respectively.

The number of hits resulting from 3 firings of a weaponwith aI SSHP of 0.04 can be determined by use of Table B-4 and20-sided dice, or by employing that table and a table of ran-dom numbers. If these chance devices are not available,

Table B-4

Decipion Number Number of Hits

01 - 06 3

07 - 35 2

36 - 78 1

79 - 00 0

C'100 slips of pap-,r numbered from 00 to 99 can be placed in abox and a slip drawn to obtain the decision number. Anothermethod employs a pair of regular dice and a compatible deci-sion number table.

B-9

Aý .

rigure B-4 illustrates a mathemitically determinedprobability distribution for five firings of a missile"ith an overall hit probability of 0.60, A distributionSuch as this may be computed according to the methodin4icated in Table B-3, or by use of the formula for n h.

When a probability distribution is difficult ori apoosible to compate it may be ,2proximated by Rinulatinga nuamber of trials, that is, by use of the Monte Carlotechnique. Any of the chance devices may be employed --

tables of random numbers, 20-sided dice, etc. For instance,the UW damage computer was used to simulate a number oftrials of five firinqs of a missile with an overall hitprobability of 0.60. After each trial of five firings thenvober of hits was recorded. At the and of 100 trials aprobability distribution was prepared. It is shown inFigure B-5.

A compariSon of the distributions of Figures B-4 andB-5 illustrates one instance of how a distribution obtainedby vimulation tends to approach its theoretical counterpart.Xf the distribution of Fi•ure B-4 were not available, thenthe probability distribution obtained by the Morrse Carlomct1ho-.3 could De employed.

TheA relative frequency of hits, that is, the ratio ofhits to firings obtained from the experiment conducted withthe NEM damage computer is shown in Figure B-6. Fiftyfirings with an overall hit probability of 0.6 resulted in

31 hits, or a relative frequency of 31/50 or 0.62. Onehundred attempts scored 60 hits; 150 tries, 85 hits for aratio of hits to firings uA 0.57. After about 180 trialjt2%e relative frequency of hits remained very close to60 percent.

B-IO

4

PHO%*"A 81LIT Y P12CASILITY"0.4

r-03 0.3-

.230

-0.2 0.2"

. T0.!

.077

0 .010 1-. 00 1 2 3 4

NUMBER OF' HITS

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FOR 5 ROUNDS-OHPO.6Figure 0-4

PROBA BIL ITY PROBABILITY"

"0.4 04"

03 ,49 0.3

1-02 .19 02

Sill 1 o°lLO

.01

NUBER O k 'S

PROBA3iLI1FY DISTRIBUTION FOR iOCI RALS OF 5 kOUNDS EA' H-OHP0.6i6o -3tir Figure P-5

B- 11

V I•0 t 0 In 0 n 0 in 0 f

0 0OFI

C4 -I -o

I -I'

0 c, 0,

' 2.

I I

) APPENDIX C

A GLOSSARY OF WAR GAMING TERMS

AGGREGATED FORCE

A single symbol, model, or NEWS force which representsa real-world force composed of two or mere units.

ANALYTICAL GAME

A game conducted for the purpose of deriving informationwhich may be used to assist military commanders andexecutives in reaching decisions.

BOARD GAME OR BOARD MANEUVER

A manual naval war game employing a game board torepresent the area of operations. Formerly, anothernane for a tactical naval war game.

J CHANCE DEVICE

A device used to simulate an event which may or maynot happen, but w;hich has a kncwn probability of

happening. Common chance devices are reqular dice,20-sided (icosahedron) dice, and tables of random

numbers.

CHART GAME OR CHART MANEUVER

A manual naval war game employing a chart (or map) torepresent the area of operations. Formerly, inothername for a strategic naval war game.

CLOSED GAME

A game in which players receive the amounts and kindaof intormation and intelligence o. friendly and enemyforces that they would normaliy receive in a similarreal-world situation. Most war -ames are closed gq&es.

C-

COMPUTER GAME 6A game co-ducted on a digital computer. No humanparticip ; are involved in its play. Also calleda compute aimulation: and sometimes a machine gameor a machine simulation.

CC9PUTER-ASSISTED GAME

A manual ga•,e utilizing digital computer assistancei.,x bookkeeping and damage assessment. Also calleda manual-computer game.

•I

CONFLICT SITUATIOU

One in which two or more individuals, organizations,nations, or allies are competing for the same golJ,or have opposing objectives.

CONSTRUCTIVE FORCE

A force represented by manual methods, an.• emplo.yedin a game conducted on the NEWS and in conjunct!•--. '.with NEWS forces.

CONTROL GROUP

The director's staft. its members advise anr ASSist

him in the planring, conduct, and criti7ue cf ý,ewar game.

DETERMINISTIC MODEL OR GA-MEF

An expected-valu- model.

DIRECTOR

The individual responsible for a %ar Qmie :. it,-;critique. Also kno-un as the cc-trolher an:. -Irearly Na7al War College o~es0 as the artrtir.

"4o

) EDUCATIONAL GAME

jgame conducted to provide military commanders orexecutives with decision-making experience, and'tofamiliarize them with the operations and problems"involved.

ELECTRONIC Mi..&EUVER BOARD SYSTEM (EMBS)

A former name of the Navy Electronic WarfareSimulator (NEWS).

EVENT-STORE OR CRITICAL EVENT METHOD

A technique used in computer games wherein thecomputer determines the times of possible futureevents, and stores them in a chronological list.The game advances from event to event rather thanby fixed intervals of time.

EXPECTED-VALUE MODEL OR GAMY

One wherein the outcomes of chance events aredetermined by average or expected values. Alsoknown as a deterministic model or game.

GAME BOARD

A deck (floor) divided into squares and used torepresent an area of operations in a manual navalwar game. The squares facilitate the plotting andrecording of the movements of naval units. Thegame board is also known as a maneuver board.

An array oZ squares or hexagons used to representan area of operations, or employed as an overlayto a map or chart which depicts the area of operatiuns.

GAME THEORY

A mathematical theory which, under certain conditions,can be employed to determine the optimum strategy orcourse of action to pursue in a conflict situation.

C-3

IQMSPRAL r-..-TIOU I

gen-A-rai devcription of te cj situatJ# thatfuirts or is assumed to exist, at the start of player-Itanning for t~h p3ly of a waz gaPe. The generalsituation is is-!ýZ to all players, -md is 1.isuallySi-Vpl nted b- spe..ial situations. hlso calledthe Dcenario.

KRYSSSP1EL (KRI-SPIEL)

j L War play or war game.

I

The range of echelons of military corn.rra-kd whichare reprebented by the players in a war game. Also,the lowest echelon of comand which is represented

I by.pi &yzý'-

MAM GAME

A ae conducted by means of equipment specificallyd...n.d to mle mitary operations. At theWavai War College, the term is applied to a gameplayad on the Navy Electronic Warfare Simulator (NEWS).

VOAMMIR BOARD

A qie board.

)WiMAL OF MMN-PLAYED GAME

A game .n which the fo-ces are represented by models,'pins, pieces, or seymls, and the participantz movetham abbout by hand on a chart, map, board, or terrainmqdol wh;Q represa-ts the area cf operations.

.4 comput.r assisted game.

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4

MANUAL-MACHINE GAME

A game employing a mixture of manual and machine(NEWS) simulation techniques.

MAP GAME OR MAP MANEUIJER

A manual uat game employing a map (or chart) torepresent the area of operations.

MODEL

A representation of an object or structure, or nexplanation or description of a system, a process,or a series of related events.

MOD1 !L, WAR GAME

The procedures and rules required for th- controland conduct of a war game.

MO)NTE CARLO TECHNIQUE

The use of a chance device to determine the cutcomesct chance events, or to approximate a probabilitydistribution that is difficult rr impossible tocompute.

MULTI-SIDED OR N--SIDED GAME

A game in which there are more than two players orplayer teams involved in a conflict situation.

NAVAL WAR GAME

A war qrae representing a conflict between naval forces,or a war qz.e in which nav-l forces predo. 'nate.

NAVY ELECTRONIC WARFARE SIMULATOR (NEWS)

A large and complex simnula.ion system which is insCalledin Sims Hall c(f the Na.al War College. It is designedopecifically Lor the zimulation of naval warfare.

c-5

MMW ARMA OF OPERATIONS

Thi. geographical area represented on the master plotscreen of the Navy Electronic Warfare Simulator fora specific war game.

)EWS FORCE

A means of representing a military force within theNavy Electronic Warfare Simulator. A NEWS force canbe programmed to approximate the mobility, firepower,and int.elligance and communications facilities of asingle or agqregated real-world force. it can bedetected by other NEWS forces, and can sustain damagefrom ths weapons of opposing NEWS forces.

A VEWM force can be controlled by players, or Lf de-sired, by the control group.

NEWM GAME

A game played on the Nav-y Electronic Warfare Simulator.Also called a machine garae.

OVE-SIDZD GAME

A game in which the opposition is furnished by thecontrol group, or by Nature.

OP4X GAME

A game in which all players receive or have accessto all information and intelligence of the actionsof all friendly and enemy forces. Usually playedin (3ne room and on a sinmlo map or chart.

Th .Plicetion of gaming techniques to non-militarysituntions. Alao used to dc-cribe the simulation ofboth military and non-militar- operations.

&-6

i

:%:• :/ : , • • • i: • ,,, • ,• , , , , ..

S• PARAMXTER

A value such as a hit probability, a detection range,

an ammunition allowance, etc., that remains constantfor the play of a gamie, but that may be varieM fromplay to play as desired.

PLAYER

A participant in a war game who is not a member ofthe control group, and who plays the role of a real-world conmmander or a staff officer of a military unitor units.

PROBABILISTIC MODEL OR GAME

A stochastic model.

PROBABiL3•?-Y

The probability of the occurrence of an event is theratio of the number of equally likely ways in whichthe event can happen to the total number of equally

likely ways in which the event can and cannot happen.

P ROGRAM

Noun: A series of instructions required to completea given procedure.

'7erb: To prepare a program.

IPROGRA104ING

Preparing a program.

SPURRPOSE

SThe geic- al and speci fic reason or reasons for whicha war iarr<e iE pianned cnd played.

C-7

A chronological listing of pre-planned situationserents, messages, etc., to b-a generated by the controlgroup in order to c-nfront the players with situat 4 onsrequiring decisions curing the play of a one-sidec' ->•e.

A description of the conflict situation. Also known as Athe general situation.

SCOPE

Tiv% scop, of a war game is expressed by the range ofcommand lev' Is r~presented, the military iervicesinvolved, the contemplated type& of operations, andthe size of the area of operations.

Mu operating representation of events and proc-'ses,

SP&CrAL SITUA*TON

A deac:iption of the elements cf a 7onflict situation_.at cj/n only be known with certainty by cne of thecontesting sides, a.4., order of battle, weaponsh characteristivgA etc.; ulus intelligence estimates

of similar informrtioti concerning the eremy. A specialaituation is prepared for and issued to each of theoposing sidcý. The spe-ial situations suppthmcrnt thegen~eral sitimat Ion. ,

Xf thera it z t::.- Jaa in the qgme world between the

completion of the rlayers' plans and the start ofgme play, a 6 scription of the evcnts that occurduring this p-rlod is also called a special situation.Cos such special situation i. usuall." pLpared fnr

. side. Scometimes ýaferre'- tc- as an intelligenc..pass oi a situAtion summary.

0-$ $

__..____ __- -- .... .. ,• , ,• •.

STOCHASTIC MODEL OR GAME

One wherein the results of chzice events are determinedby the use of a chance devica. Also known as a prob-abilistic or Monte Carlo moCe!el or game.

Repeated trials of a stochistic game provide a distri-bution of possible outcoieb.

SUBROUTINE

A prugram which can be stored in the main or auxiliaryprogram of a digital csmputer and used as part of otherprograms to perform a specific operation; e.g., a squareroot subroutine.

TIME-STEP METHOD

A technicpqe employed in computer games wherein the nomeadvances by regular time steps. At the end of eachtime step the computer decides if the interactioncoccurred, and if they did, it determines the outcomes.i .) For any particular play of a game the time interval is

constant, but in some cases it may be changed fromplay to play if so desired.

TWO-SIDED GAME

A game in which there are two opposing players orteams of players.

U? 7RE

A member of the contrc' group who performs one or moreof the following duties: monitczrs player actions,evaluates interactions, p-oviaes intelligence to -layers.

UMPIRING, FREE

The results of interactions are determined by theumpiies in accordance with their profescional judgment

and experience.

C-9

- - ~UMPIRING3, SEMIRIGID SInteractions are evaluated by the rigid method, but

the outcomes can be modified or overruled by the 3L.•pires. The term is also used when certain 3pecitiedinteractions are evaluated by rigid umpiring; otherinteractions, by free tupiring. Also called free-.. igid.

UMPIRING, RIG:CD

The results of interactions are determined by umpires,simulation equipment, or compaters in accordance withpredetermining rules, data, and procedures.

W R GANZ

I- simulation, in accordance with predetermined rules,data, and procedures, of selected aspects otconflict situation.

71

S I

-J APPENDIX D

REFERENCES

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D1-

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n-2A

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L)-4

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) D-5

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D-7

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