Missing Calories

A study on paradox of increasing Food Production & Declining

Food Security in India

"There are people in the world so hungry, that God Cannot

appear to them except in the form of bread.”

OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

 To study the cause of Food Insecurity in India.

 Solving the Puzzle of Increasing Food Production & Decrease in Calorie

Consumption.

 Suggest a few alternatives to improve landscape of food security in India,

helping to eliminate hunger related problems.

INTRODUCTION

 Despite rapid economic growth that India has experienced in the last decade or so,

malnutrition and hunger continue to present key policy challenges.

 Availability of food is enough to satisfy the population’s needs-disconnect between food

production , increase in inflation & decline in nutrition levels is a worrying trend.

 The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that India is home

to more than 230 million undernourished people, which constitutes 21% of the national

population (FAO, 2009).

 The country’s hunger situation is described as “alarming” on the Global Hunger Index (a

compilation of population undernourishment, child malnutrition, & mortality).

Food Insecurity

Uncertain Food Prdn. Unequal Food Distribution

 India is performing even worse than the Sub-Saharan Africa

 Despite compelling evidence of poor nutrition, hunger and poor

access to food in India, the extent of food security and the

characteristics of the food insecure populations have not been

adequately quantified.

INTRODUCTION

Food security- multi-faceted concept

 The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) defines food security as ‘food

that is available at all times, that all persons have means of access to it, that it is

nutritionally adequate in terms of quantity, quality and variety, and that it is

acceptable within the given culture’ (FAO, 1996).

 Thus, food security may be treated as a combination of food availability, food

access and food utilization

Key Findings  India is home to about 1/5 of the World’s hungry population with absolute

numbers touching 231 million, ranking 66th out of 85 countries on the Global Hunger Index, performing even worse than Sub-Saharan Africa.  Average calorie intake & food grains consumption has declined over time in

India even as real consumption expenditures (and by most measures real per capita incomes) have increased.

 The income share of India’s bottom 20% population has grown only marginally

from 8.8% in 1991 to 9.3% in 2012,whereas during the same period, food prices

have grown by about 400% in Real Terms.

 While the government’s Food Subsidy budget has grown from Rs.2850 crores

in 1991 to Rs.75000 crores in 2012,a rise of about 2531% , Per Capita

Foodgrains availability has dropped substantially from 186.2Kgs/Per Person/

Year to 159.8Kgs/Per Person/Year or almost 14.17%.

 India’s annual foodgrains output has grown nearly 25.07% from 1991,whereas

population has grown by about 41.52%,effectively meaning food output has not

kept pace with increase in population & that more people are being pushed

towards a food insecure future

 Agriculture’s contribution to overall GDP has declined significantly to about

14% whereas agriculture’s share in employment is still above 50%

 An increase in Per capita GNI is negatively correlated with consumption of

calories,which means that increase in Per Capita GNI explains decrease in

Calorie Consumption.

Key Findings

Methodology Adopted

STEP I 1.Divided Food Security into two-Physical & Economic dimensions.

2.Collected,Sorted & Collated data for analysis in subsequent stages

STEP II  Plotted graphs using:

Ø Economic indicators in relation to Agriculture viz. YoY GDP growth, Share of

agriculture as % of GDP, YoY Total & Agricultural exports

Ø Access to food indicators (using YoY change in Foodgrains Production, Food

Subsidy, Food Stocks, Offtake under PDS & Availability in grams/person/day)

Ø Food Expenditure indicators ( using Per Capita Income, Change in income of

bottom 20% population, Rural household monthly expenditure-general, Rural

household monthly expenditure-Food, & YoY Food Inflation%.)

Ø Nutrition indicators(Calorie Consumption & Malnutrition prevelance by weight)

Methodology Adopted STEP III   Studied the hypothesis in terms of trade that productivity growth(YoY

change in Yield per Hectare)>=General Inflation, Food Inflation Level.

  Correlated per capita GNI with Per Capita Calorie Consumption.

  Regressed non-food general expenditure on calorie consumption.

Conclusion

Food Insecurity

due to Food Budget

Squeeze

Declining foodgrains Production per head

Absence of effective deliverance mechanisms

Stagnant income share of Bottom 20% population

Economic Indicators

Pertinent Concerns/Implications

Today,it is the farmer who needs nourishment.

Since,still more than 50% of working population is directly or

indirectly engaged in agricultural activities,this decling trend is a

major cause of concern & pushing agriculture labour towards food

insecurity.

 Exports per se are increasing, while agricultural exports are

declining-our farmers are being denied a lucrative market.

Access to Food

Pertinent Concerns/Implications

 Food Stock is decreasing in recent years,YoY Food Production &

Foodgrains availability per day are nearly constant & the Food

stocks are highly volatile-pushing the country towards a food

insecure future.

 Growth in food grains production has not kept pace with the rate

of increase of population

Food Security has grown from Rs. 2550 crores in 1991 to over Rs.72,000 crores in 2011 but offtake under the PDS is declining-which poses another question-Where is the money going & poses questions on efficacy of PDS.

The BIG Question?

Food Expenditure

 Inflation levels have always stayed above the growth level of income share of

bottom 20% population. In the last 20 years, growth has been miniscule from 8.8%

to 9.3%Since, the income share has always remained below the YoY food inflation

levels, this effectively means that this bottom 20% section of population is unable to

purchase enough food & as a result is food insecure due to poverty & galloping

inflation levels.

 Another important inference that can be drawn from the graph is the sudden

increase in general, non-food expenditure over food expenditure. Around the year

2000, the year on year expenditure on both food & non food group has fallen

drastically. However, the fall in food expenditure has been larger & consumers have

had to spend more on other commodities, resulting in a budget squeeze for buying

food grains. Since then, general commodities have had more share in the budget

than food grains.

 Since, an increase in general expenditure explains a budget squeeze, it can be

safely hypothesized that an increase in general expenditure means slight reduction

in food consumption.

Pertinent Concerns/Implications

Nutrition

 Per Capita Caloric consumption has decreased from 2270 Kcal/Day in 1972 to

2020 Kcal/day in 2009 in rural areas & from 2120 Kcal/day in 1972 to 1946 Kcal/

day in urban areas

Since,there is an increase in percapita income & overall numbers of food

production,this picture is a big paradox!

Per Capita GNI is negatively correlated with Rural Kcal/Day consumption by a factor of -.908 & Urban Kcal/Day consumption by a factor of -.826,which opposes the widely held belief that calorie consumption must increase with an increase in per capita GNI. Rather, calorie consumption decreases with increase in income which is startling!

Pertinent Concerns/Implications

The Big Concern-

YoY % change in food availability per capita is declining & therefore,

Decline in Malnutrition prevalence by weight is slowing.

Nutrition II

Role of Productivity Growth We hypothesize that Productivity Growth (or YoY Change in Yield

per Hectare) >= YoY General Inflation level,Food Inflation level for a nation to be food secure

IT CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN FROM THE GRAPH THAT FARM PRODUCTIVITY HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT & FOR A MAJOR PART HAS BEEN A LAGGARD COMPARED TO YOY FOOD & GENERAL INFLATION LEVELS. SINCE, FARM PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH HAS NOT KEPT PACE WITH INFLATION LEVELS , WE CAN SAY THAT IT EXPLAINS THE CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD INSECURITY

Concluding the study:Interpretations

Over the past two decades, despite rising incomes, a steady increase in non-food essential expenditures has “squeezed” the food budget keeping it from increasing in real terms; making people consume lesser food

Decline in per capita output of

food

Decline in food availability points to serious anomalies in the Distribution channels since the government’s s u b s i d y h a s r i s e n magnanimously by nearly 2600% in the same period.

However, the most telling factor has been stagnant share of income of the bottom 20% population, which has risen only .5% over the course of past 20 odd years, which hasn’t kept pace with the YoY food inflation levels, pushing the poor further into poverty .

Recommendations  Overhaul of agricultural practices is required by infusing latest technologies, major

infrastructure programmes- so that bulk of the country that faces shortage of water is

not dependant on rain for agriculture. It wil help to improve efficiency of agriculture by

increasing Productivity & consequently food production per head.

 Direct Cash Subsidy is a great way of checking leakages in Public Distribution

System. The objectives of the Public Distribution System-PDS are good but it was

failed to accomplish that objective due to the corruption. PDS is better way to tackle

the problem of food speculation of private traders.. However, the cruel reality is that

despite this huge food production, a huge buffer stock and an extensive network of

PDS, millions of people are food insecure and many even die of starvation. Food

Insecurity and tragedy hit different parts of the country every year.

 An estimate states that the government spends Rs.3.5 for every 1 Rupee to reach

the beneficiary. Thus direct cash subsidy, linked with Aadhar helps to ensure that

subsidy reaches the intended beneficiary & slash the cost by nearly half. The

government can reach out to double the number of poor using a similar amount of

subsidy as it does now.

 Money saved from subsidy leakage needs to be further reinvested in generating

more employment opportunities, thereby reducing poverty & improving income of the

bottom 20% of the population.

Finally,a wrong notion is that export of food is detrimental to a nation’s food security.

I believe,it is high time farmers are given incentives to export. If Top corporations are

allowed to sell their merchandise in other countries, why deny farmers a lucrative

market? It will help in more efficient agriculture-production of more food for India and

the world & flow of good global practices in the agrarian sector.

 The Right to Food must be implemented through PDS network to make sure that no

one goes hungry. Again, the money that is saved from fiscal prudence & direct cash

subsidy can be used to setup better deliverance & storage structures. Since, nearly

12% of the total food produced goes waste every year (various estimates)it is better to

distribute it to the poorest sections for free (and not destroy food deliberately and

dispose it off to alcohol distilleries-as is a widespread practice in Punjab)

Antayodaya Anna Yojna, Akshay Patra & Midday Meal schemes should be

consolidated, restructured & enforced through local civic bodies to ensure proper

penetration to the children & at-risk poor.

“Join hands to make India a Happy, Healthy, Nourished & Food Secure nation”

Or This? This?

Scope for Further Research  A lot of study has been done with regard to food insecurity in India, but most studies focus

on poverty and food insecurity in general and not much has been done to link the two with

agriculture.

 It is said that agriculture plays a vital role in poverty alleviation by reducing prices,

creating employment and improving farm income and wages for farm workers. These

areas also need to be investigated to determine whether agricultural jobs that are created

through agriculture have a positive impact to food security since most jobs in agriculture

are seasonal and not sustainable employment like in other sectors.

 Since there are a number of methods used to assess food security in the country, it is

essential to determine specific methods that can be adopted by agriculture to determine

the impact of agricultural contribution to food security.

Since,Increase in agricultural productivity is also one of the major solutions for this

problem,there should be extensive research on integrating inputs and outputs-the supply of

high yielding varieties of seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation, supported by credit alongside

remunerative output prices. A second “green revolution” is essential to stimulate food

production in India.

Challenges

 Promotion of different crops and livestock which can enrich people’s diets need to be

considered.

 The provision of appropriate support to farmers, not only to improve the quality and

quantity of outputs, but also to allow innovative farmers to move from subsistence to

more commercial and market oriented production.

Since,India is a diverse nation,food habits which are consistent with beliefs need to be

promoted. A concerted effort in this regard of research and implementation is required.

Thank You!

Ritwik Kapur Examination Roll Number BA(H) Business Economics-III Year Shivaji College,University of Delhi

Special thanks to Mr. Abhishek Kumar