Energy Technology CW Electric Vehicles

Electric Vehicles: Technological

Progress, Implications on Grid and

other Infrastructure

Assessing UK EV Potential

Zephaniah Kivungi

4/9/2014

To the attention of Dr. Stas Burek

S1339586 | Zephaniah Kivungi Page 1

Table of Contents

List of Acronyms .................................................................................................................... 2

List of Figures ........................................................................................................................ 3

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 4

1.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 4

2.0 The Technology: ............................................................................................................. 6

2.1 Energy Efficiency ............................................................................................................. 7

3.0 Crucial Improvements: What has to Change for EVs to Dominate ................................ 9

3.1 Battery Technology: Capacity versus Cost ...................................................................... 9

3.2 Range and Recharging Time .......................................................................................... 10

4.0 Infrastructure: What if UK had a complete Shift to EVs? ............................................ 12

4.1 Grid Capacity ................................................................................................................. 12

4.2 Grid Stability .................................................................................................................. 14

4.3 Development of infrastructure and Knowhow .............................................................. 15

5.0 Sustainability: Coal versus Nuclear and RE for Electricity .......................................... 16

6.0 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................. 17

7.0 References ..................................................................................................................... 18

Appendices ........................................................................................................................... 19


List of Acronyms

BCG – Boston Consulting Group

BPEV – Battery [powered electric vehicle

CO2 – Carbon Dioxide

EV – Electric Vehicle

FCEV– Fuel-cell electric vehicle

HEV– Hybrid Electric Vehicles

ICEV– Internal combustion engine vehicles

kWh – Kilowatt-hour

LCA – Life Cycle Analysis

Li – Lithium

R&D – Research and Development

RE –Renewable Energy

SMMT– The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders


List of Figures Figure 1: BEV Powertrain. Either a battery pack at back or entire chassis base ....................... 6

Figure 2: Standard Hybrid Vehicle mechanism. Source: www.bydeurope.com, 2014 ............. 7

Figure 3: Vehicle Electrification path, Gradual Technology Shift ............................................ 8

Figure 4: Energy versus power for various EV Options. Source: Broussely, 2010 ................... 8

Figure 5: Commercial EV Performance Comparison. Adapted from: www.byd.com and

www.Teslamotors.com .............................................................................................................. 9

Figure 6: Advanced Charging Technology in Use in USA and Europe .................................. 11

Figure 7: Extra Demand if half of UK cars were electrified .................................................... 12

Figure 8: Energy Demand Increase in the Event electrifying half of UK's cars ...................... 12

Figure 9: If only new cars were Electrified ............................................................................. 13

Figure 10: Demand profile with nominal EV demands. .......................................................... 13

Figure 11: EV demanding electricity in UK by hour of day. Source: Element Energy, 2014 14

Figure 12: Electric Charging Points across UK. Source: NextgreenCar.com, 2014 ............... 16


Electric Vehicles: Technological Progress, Implications on

Grid and other Infrastructure

Executive Summary

Electric vehicles will continue to generate interest in the world in the pursuit of a low-carbon

economy. The huge energy efficiency and reliability gap between EVs and internal

combustion presents massive barriers. If EVs are to dominate on the road, battery technology

for energy storage will need to be revolutionary to go beyond the current maximum range of

425km. The source of electricity complicates the emission reductions, policy around nuclear

electricity and presents serious challenges to renewable electricity targets; though EVs can be

good means to ‘store’ intermittent RE. Other than capacity, grid stability would be altered

and new balances have to be developed. If UK is to electrify even just the new cars coming

onto the roads each year, an additional 3.2TWh has to be availed in addition to an electric

charging grid whose running will be a delicate balance between profitability and

sustainability.

1.0 Introduction

Road transport has been and remains one of the biggest users of energy in the UK. There are

about 32 million cars on UK roads, after a 436,000 increase in 2013 (SMMT, 2014). The

transport sector consumed 36% of all energy in UK in 2012 according to Digest of UK

Energy Statistics (DUKES, 2013). This translates to 621.042TWh. An improvement of fuel

efficiency technologies would translate to significant savings in energy use.


Electric vehicles (EVs) were dominant in the world up to 1912 when Ford’s the Model T, run

by an internal combustion engine, took over (history.com, 2014). The internal combustion

engine vehicles (ICEVs) have dominated the car industry and technologies have improved

tremendously over these 100 years. The main area of improvement has been fuel economics

over and above aerodynamics and safety. Fuel economics focus on two intricate aspects-

mileage and cost. In the US for instance, there is regulation requiring a minimum of 14.5km

per litre so as to attain CO2 emission reduction (Lynette, 2011). Climate change will thus

remain a major driver to the adoption of EVs.

UK’s electricity consumption increased in the transport sector in 2012, to 4.1 TWh, with a

small increase in numbers of electric road vehicles. 99% of transport electricity consumption

was Rail (DUKES, 2013). According to DUKES, 2013, out of 621.042TWh used by

transport, road transport used 74.12% or 459.036TWh. If UK was to switch to 100% EVs,

this would mean different delivery patterns, potentially higher demand. The electricity

generation capacity would require significant expansion and the supply dynamics including

peak loads might change. EVs are expected to make a re-emergence in the world market due

to the global challenge of climate change in a bid to control CO2 emissions.

UK has concerns over reliance of foreign petroleum fuels and increased electricity generation

to meet a migration to EVs would complicate the challenge. Nuclear, renewables and coal

are, thus, the possible means of this new capacity owing. A pathway to sustainable petroleum

displacement is the adoption of high-efficiency powertrain technologies, like fuel-cell or

battery-EVs able to deliver high performance, higher efficiency, and zero exhaust emissions

(Dong et al., 2014).

This report assesses the variants of electric vehicle technology and underpins their

efficiencies - storage capacity versus driving range and the current advances on these


concerns. The odds of achieving less reliance of imported energy is critically assessed with

respect to if road transport was to shift to EVs; and whether this would necessarily mean

reduction of carbon emissions. Further, the implications on the electricity supply dynamics

(like peak demands) and the infrastructure development and flexibility as well as metering.

Finally, recommendations as to the adoption potential and required adjustments are

suggested.

2.0 The Technology: Various Configurations

A vehicle requires energy for propulsion. Internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs)

purely use the conversion of chemical energy in fuel to heat and kinetic energy that then

drives a motor and propels the car. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) draw all power from the

electric grid, using only batteries for on-board energy storage. The range thus depends on

battery capacity and availability of recharge points is a key consideration.

Figure 1: BEV Powertrain. Top has a battery pack at back while the Tesla design (bottom) has entire chassis as battery


On the other hand, plug-in-electric vehicles (PEVs) which include full EVs and plug-in

hybrids (PHEVs) draw part or all their power from the electric grid. The PHEV draws the

rest of its power from an alternative energy source on board, like gasoline. They thus have

internal combustion engines. There exist many possible configurations and designs of

PHEVs. Further, there are hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) that have both an ICE and an

electric drivetrain for propulsion, but does not take electricity from the grid (Ma, et al. 2012).

Figure 2: Standard Hybrid Vehicle mechanism. Source: www.bydeurope.com, 2014

2.1 Energy Efficiency

A gradual shift towards full EVs hinges on improvement of thermodynamic efficiencies in

ICEVs by hybridizing and adoption of cleaner electricity for charging if the EVs are to satisfy

one of the drivers-CO2 emission reductions. The electricity generated having to go through

thermal power plants (whose efficiencies are 10-50%) translate to much less efficient

resource use when further losses- at charging and propulsion dynamics - are factored in. In

essence, the losses at power plants would be similar to ICEV engine losses; therefore ICEVs

remain a step ahead in energy costs unless renewable energy sources are considered. The

renewable energy argument will also be based on what particular technology is used.

http://www.bydeurope.com/


Figure 3: Vehicle Electrification path, Gradual Technology Shift. Source: Boston Consulting Group, 2013

The overall energy and LCA efficiencies (celled well-to-wheel in ICEVs) is depend largely

on battery technology; if the battery have a complex disposal (and potentially energy

intensive) processes, then on an energy perspective, EVs will not much ICEV technology.

Alongside range, the car size also impacts battery sizing and energy efficiencies- from small

hybrid to full EVs, the specific electric properties required and battery size vary considerably

with the vehicle type and size (Broussely, 2010). The consumer perceptions of comfort and

satisfaction are complex (BCG, 2014).

Figure 4: Energy versus power for various EV Options. Source: Broussely, 2010


3.0 Crucial Improvements: What has to Change for EVs to Dominate

Figure 5: Commercial EV Performance Comparison. Adapted from: www.byd.com and www.Teslamotors.com

3.1 Battery Technology: Capacity versus Cost

Battery price and storage capacity are critical for EVs because sufficient range depends on

battery size. Much as new Li batteries can provide the minimum distance of 150–200 km

required for EVs, the price of the exotic materials is a major barrier to the commercialization

of EVs (Broussely, 2010). According to Tesla Motors, who are setting up the world’s largest

battery factory, future battery technology must seek to improve energy density -amount of

power that packed into a given mass of battery -is key to EV success. Since the battery pack

of most EVs is almost 30% of the vehicle weight, the smaller, and lighter the batteries the

better the range.

Current battery technologies limit the calendar life of BEVs to 8–10 years, another bottleneck

given the high proportional cost of batteries, replacing batteries remains a big challenge-

Energy Performance BYD Bus

Power Battery

Battery Type Fe Battery Fe Battery auto-grade Li-ion cells

Capacity 600 Ah

Battery Energy 324 kWh 58 kWh

Lifespan 8 to 10 years 10 years 8 years

Recharge System

Charging Power 30x2 kW 30 kW

Charging Time 5 h 2 h

Performance

Electric Motor Synchronous AC Motor

Top Speed 70 km/h 140 km/h 209 km/h

Motor Max. Power 90x2 kW 90 kW 350 kWh

Max Torque 350x2 Nm 450 Nm 600 Nm

Range 250 km(Urban) 300 km(Urban) 482 km(overall)

EV Performance ComparisonsBYD Saloon Tesla Saloon

http://www.teslamotors.com/


whether by customer or by manufacturer. Tesla’s first Li-ion batteries were priced at about

£600 a kWh and in 5years the price is £240 to £450 a kWh (Tesla Motors, 2014). Even then,

the 85 kWh pack in their sedan is a production cost of between £20,500 and £38,000. A study

by BCG established that battery costs would have to be £120 or less per kWh by 2020 if

electric vehicles are to compete with the all familiar internal combustion engine vehicles.

Further, at R&D the technology that reaches that target will still need to address disposal or

recycling barrier especially in accordance with Directive 2000/53/EC on September 2000,

defining the end-of-life of vehicles and increasing recycling minimum levels.

3.2 Range and Recharging Time The consumption rate depends on size of the vehicle and the speeds (rate of drawing energy).

Approximation of the grid consumption of a battery-electric vehicle with current technology

in mixed city traffic can be given by the empirical formula

Es=80+80/m)

where:

Es - the specific energy consumption in Wh/T km

m -the mass of the vehicle in tons

For instance, a small-sized EV of 1500 kg would have an energy consumption of:

E=1.5× (80+80/1.5) =1.5× (80+53.33) =200Wh/km

To drive this EV for a typical urban range of 50 km for BEV or PHEV, the amount of energy

would be needed from the grid is as below:


E=50km ×200Wh/km= 10kWh

A maximum range design paradox is optimising space and cost yet the more battery cell, the

more the final mass of the EV. So to get 425km range:

For pure EVs to make long journeys the battery bank has to be quite big or recharging is

required in in reasonably short distances. Crucial improvement to the recharging points are

thus around the capacity to recharge the batteries to full capacity rapidly. One such

development done by Tesla Motors has a 120kW charge points that recharge 16times faster

than the conventional chargers. 30minutes for is still way slower than petrol or diesel

refuelling for 200miles.

Figure 6: Advanced Charging Technology in Use in USA and Europe. Source: http://www.teslamotors.com

Another downside of these advanced chargers is the fact that they are dedicated to a

particular model meaning the car manufacturer has to install them.

Range Grid Energy

50km Range 10 kWh

425km Range 85 kWh

http://www.teslamotors.com/


4.0 Infrastructure: What if UK had a complete Shift to EVs?

For a complete shift, whenever it will happen, there will need to be an Electric Recharge Grid

with universal charging points.

4.1 Grid Capacity

If the about 32 million cars on UK roads were electrified, and taking half of them to be light

and doing 100km a day, the grid demand would have an additional demand as follows:

Figure 7: Extra Demand if half of UK cars were electrified

A daily additional 320,000MWh delivered to the Electric Recharge Grid which a constant

output of 13,333.33MW for the 24hrs of the day charging patterns notwithstanding. So

electrifying all cars would translate to 27,000MW installed, a massive expansion in

generation capacity. The energy demand would increase as follows:

Figure 8: Energy Demand Increase in the Event electrifying half of UK's cars

A nominal energy demand of 116.8TWh up from 4.1TWh in 2013 (DUKES, 2013) is close to

28times increase.

Even if only new cars were factored, the 436,000 new cars in 2013 would translate to

3.183TWh increase in electricity demand.

Grid Energy Demand

50km Range 10.00 kWh


16,000,000 320,000.00 MWh

For 16m cars Grid Energy Demand



16,000,000 320,000.00 MWh

365 Days 116,800,000.00 MWh


Figure 9: If only new cars were Electrified

One way of looking at the demand patterns would be to follow the normal demand curves as

below:

Figure 10: Demand profile with nominal EV demands. Source: Eon UK, 2014

Figure 11: Predicted Electricity peak demand and supply after Forecast Closures of Power plants. Source: E.ON UK

For 436k New cars in 2013 Grid Energy Demand



436,000 8,720.00 MWh

365 Days 3,182,800.00 MWh


This kind of demand would mean massive increase in GHG emission given the additional

peaks would be supplied primarily by the dispatchable fossil capacity. As the years progress,

then either new coal or nuclear power plants may need to be built. And if then renewable

energy was to be expanded to meet the extra demand, then GHG emission reductions would

be significant.

4.2 Grid Stability

Since road transport is used for running the economy mainly during the day, there is likely to

be a new late night peak or an escalation of the early evening.

Figure 12: EV demanding electricity in UK by hour of day. Source: Element Energy, 2014

A late night would create a good balance to the existing day-time/night-time imbalances. This

kind of demand would best be supplied by nuclear if it is to be clean. The challenge with

nuclear is the lack of flexibility when the peak dies out- the excess capacity, in the morning,

would need to be transferred elsewhere. Finding that perfect importer to take up the excess

would be a challenge if cost is to be maintained reasonably low.


If charging happened in the night, then the electricity suppliers could design smart metering

in which the uptake of electricity by electric cars could be incentivised for times when

variable resources are most available. Case in point is, if UK exploits the tidal or wind

potential o such a level. The cars then become a means to ‘store’ energy by being charged

when these resources generate maximum electricity.

4.3 Development of infrastructure and Knowhow

One of the low carbon technologies the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) proposes for

meeting UK’s 2020 emission reduction targets is EVs. The CCC has calculated at least 1.7

million EVS (with 3.9m drivers trained in fuel-efficient techniques) by 2020 for UK to hit the

targets. The knowledge on repairs of cars will be a critical skill. "Dramatic improvements," as

the CCC calls them (CCC, 2014), demand for revolutionary technological breakthroughs if

uptake of EVs is to rise. Otherwise, measures to cut the growth in traffic, including road

pricing may be easier way out.


Figure 13: Electric Charging Points across UK. Source: NextgreenCar.com, 2014

There is a possibility of having custom-made pre-charged batteries at the charging station so

that motorists can leave discharged ones and avoid the delay at charging. Customisation,

specific storage capacity requirements and model designs would be a barrier to this option.

5.0 Sustainability: Coal versus Nuclear and RE for Electricity

With an Electric Recharge Grid, operating and managing it becomes the next decision to

make: operate it as an open, competitive manner or as a controlled, profit-maximization tool.

In a normal competitive market model, the choice of fuel for electricity generation would be

the most cost-effective. On the other hand, if based on current energy policy, the Electric

Charging Grid is to be required to only purchase and sell clean electricity, then the capacity

will have to be built first otherwise, the gains on decarbonisation of electricity supply will

disappear if the EV demand increases and then quick fossil fuels like coal have to fill the

gap.


6.0 Conclusions and Recommendations

The ultimate attraction of EVs as perfect for a low-carbon economy will remain elusive since

it is an expensive technology owing to energy storage limitation. Battery prices have to come

to the region of £120 a kWh. Additionally, the huge electricity generation will remain a

barrier if decommissioning of nuclear and coal power plants is to stay on course. This

coupled with the setup of a complete electric charging grid as well as increasing technical

knowhow. Developing countries will not have this as a priority in the short and medium term

since grid capacity, stability and reliability is largely elusive.

In UK, hard decisions will have to be made at policy level about new generation capacity and

renewable energy targets. EVs can be storage for intermittent energy from renewable sources

like wind and tidal. Dedicated nuclear power plants could perhaps be a way to power the

Electric Charging Grid. On the technology side, domestic automakers must focus on the

R&D of key technologies, so as to lower the costs. Overall, the potential remains big for EVS

in the UK and world. Translating this potential into reality requires government, academia

and industry to make hard decisions on technology choice, electric charging infrastructure,

and on the economic front, the level of subsidies and support research from both sides.


7.0 References

Bohnsack, R., Pinkse, J. & Kolk, A. 2014, "Business models for sustainable technologies: Exploring

business model evolution in the case of electric vehicles", Research Policy, Vol. 43, no. 2, pp. 284-

300.

Boston Consulting Group, 2014. [online]. Available on: http://www.bcg.com [Accessed on:

[01.04.2014]

Broussely, M. 2010, "CHAPTER THIRTEEN - battery requirements for HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs: An

overview." in: Electric and hybrid vehicles, ed. G. Pistoia, Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 305-345.

Dong, J., Liu, C. & Lin, Z. 2014, "Charging infrastructure planning for promoting battery electric

vehicles: An activity-based approach using multiday travel data", Transportation Research Part C:

Emerging Technologies, Vol. 38, no. 0, pp. 44-55.

Drude, L., Pereira Junior, L.C. & Rüther, R. 2014, "Photovoltaics (PV) and electric vehicle-to-grid

(V2G) strategies for peak demand reduction in urban regions in brazil in a smart grid

environment",Renewable Energy, Vol. 68, no. 0, pp. 443-451.

Element Energy (UK), 2014. [online]. Available on: www.element-energy.co.uk. [Accessed on

01.04.2014]

Eon Energy, UK, 2014. [online]. Available on www.eonenergy.com. [Accessed on: 02.04.2014]

History Channel, 2014. [online]. Available on: http://www.history.co.uk [Accessed on: 25.03.2014]

Johansson, B. & Åhman, M. 2002, "A comparison of technologies for carbon-neutral passenger

transport", Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 175-196.

Ma, H., Balthasar, F., Tait, N., Riera-Palou, X. & Harrison, A. 2012, "A new comparison between the

life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of battery electric vehicles and internal combustion

vehicles",Energy Policy, Vol. 44, no. 0, pp. 160-173.

Pina, A., Baptista, P., Silva, C. & Ferrão, P. 2014, "Energy reduction potential from the shift to

electric vehicles: The flores island case study", Energy Policy, Vol. 67, no. 0, pp. 37-47.

Saisirirat, P., Chollacoop, N., Tongroon, M., Laoonual, Y. & Pongthanaisawan, J. 2013, "Scenario

analysis of electric vehicle technology penetration in thailand: Comparisons of required electricity

with power development plan and projections of fossil fuel and greenhouse gas reduction", Energy

Procedia, Vol. 34, no. 0, pp. 459-470.

SMMT, 2014. [online]. Available on: http://www.smmt.co.uk [Accessed on: 28.03.2014]

The Committee on Climate Change - UK, 2014. [online]. Available on: http://www.theccc.org.uk

[Accessed on 01.04.2014].

Xu, L., Li, J., Ouyang, M., Hua, J. & Yang, G. 2014, "Multi-mode control strategy for fuel cell

electric vehicles regarding fuel economy and durability", International Journal of Hydrogen

Energy, Vol. 39, no. 5, pp. 2374-2389.

http://www.bcg.com/

http://www.element-energy.co.uk/

http://www.eonenergy.com/

http://www.history.co.uk/

http://www.smmt.co.uk/

http://www.theccc.org.uk/


Appendices

1. Charging points are not universal yet. Car manufacturers are still having to supply

them and some are exclusive to their models

2. Related reports and articles

http://www.hybridcars.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Norway_BEV_Adoption.jpg

http://www.smmt.co.uk/2014/03/decades-fastest-growth-sees-almost-32-million-cars-road/

http://www.hybridcars.com/november-ev-sales-12-percent-norway/

http://www.nextgreencar.com/news/6562/Rapid-EV-chargers-coming-to-North-East

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/12/are-electric-vehicles-

already-halfway-to-market-dominance?cmpid=WNL-Wednesday-December18-2013

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/279546/DUKE

S_2013_Chapter_5.pdf

http://www.hybridcars.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Norway_BEV_Adoption.jpg

http://www.hybridcars.com/november-ev-sales-12-percent-norway/

http://www.nextgreencar.com/news/6562/Rapid-EV-chargers-coming-to-North-East

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/12/are-electric-vehicles-already-halfway-to-market-dominance?cmpid=WNL-Wednesday-December18-2013

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/12/are-electric-vehicles-already-halfway-to-market-dominance?cmpid=WNL-Wednesday-December18-2013

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/279546/DUKES_2013_Chapter_5.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/279546/DUKES_2013_Chapter_5.pdf

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