El Niño and Society in Latin America

By Ivan J. Ramirez

GEO 490

December 14, 2006

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Table of Contents

1 Introduction

2 ENSO Science

2.1 Description of ENSO

2.2 Teleconnections

2.2 How We Know What We Know

3 Geography of Latin America

3.1 Socioeconomic and Population Characteristics

3.2 Shifting Politics

3.3 Physical Geography

4 Societal and Ecological Impacts

4.1 Economy and Politics

4.2 Agriculture

4.3 Fisheries

4.4 Gender

4.5 Human and Ecosystem Health

5 Conclusions

6 References

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I. Introduction El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon considered to be a hazard-

spawner in many countries with adverse implications for human health and ecosystems. Among

the most severely affected and vulnerable are populations in Latin America, a region that is at

the proverbial ground zero of the ENSO influence. The teleconnections can be felt from the

coast of Ecuador to Northeast Brazil and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. Some places are

expected to become drier and others wetter during ENSO Events. The impacts can range from

fires and floods to drought, disease, and famine. During the 1982-83 El Niño, Cuba experienced

severe coastal flooding which resulted in damages to urban infrastructure and the agricultural

sector. In the 1997-98 El Niño event, which some consider to be the “El Niño of the century”,

outbreaks of cholera, leptospirosis, dengue and malaria were associated with heavy rains in

Ecuador. However, the re are some positive aspects that society can take advantage of. In

some regions such as the Argentine Pampas, the increased rains can be favorable for

agricultural production. In Northern Chile, opportunities for fisheries are abound as anchovies

from the Peruvian coast migrate south during El Niño (Glantz, 2001).

This paper reviews the teleconnections of ENSO events and presents the climate-societal

interactions related to the phenomenon in Latin America. The importance of this review is two-

fold. First, most ENSO reports focus on global impacts or a compilation of country case studies

from different regions in the context of a specific El Niño /La Niña year. Latin America is at the

geographic center of the ENSO range of influence and therefore warrants a study that examines

how the region is affected on the state and local levels, the interconnections between social and

physical dimensions of extreme weather or environmental changes related to ENSO, and

possibly consider how the impact on multiple states in the same region may affect the region’s

overall resilience. Furthermore it is important to draw increasing attention to the sociopolitical

conditions in Latin America states that exist when ENSO or any extreme weather event takes

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place in the region. Can we just blame El Niño or are the institutions, which are supposed to

protect the people, responsible? Or do a set of multiple factors occurring simultaneously

contribute to the overall outcomes? Secondly, it is increasingly important to gain an overall

understanding of effects in the region as reports from the IPCC (2001) and other institutions

project that global climate change may lead to more El Niño-like conditions. That being said,

ENSO events, which are predictable to some extent, provide opportunities to learn and test

coping strategies to current and future climate-related events in real world situations.

Various aspects of ENSO teleconnections will be discussed as well as the region’s

socioeconomic and political conditions for vulnerability context. The more vulnerable a

population and state are, the less likely that society and state can respond appropriately to

ENSO. I will be synthesizing El Niño knowledge from a wide variety of sources including

academic journal papers, grey literature pieces from various international organizations,

newspaper articles, and several books from El Niño experts like Michael H. Glantz (NCAR) and

S. Kovats (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London). I also refer to scholarly

literature from Latin America. I think it is important to draw attention to this knowledge (from the

people who are most affected), which exists and is less cited in the El Niño discourse among

scholars in developed countries.

Following this introduction, I describe ENSO, its physical dynamics, the global and local

teleconnections, and briefly discuss how we know what we know about ENSO. A description of

each phase (El Niño, La Niña, and neutral), and their respective connections are given. The

next section describes the political and socioeconomic conditions of the region and its

populations and a brief description of the physical geography. It is important to consider existing

conditions of the peoples and governments in order to evaluate the vulnerability of the

populations and their governments. Latin America according to this study excludes the Lesser

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Antilles and includes Jamaica and Haiti. In the next section, the societal and ecological impacts

of ENSO are discussed. Although many sectors or aspects of impacts could be described, I

chose to focus on agriculture, economy, fisheries, gender, and human and ecosystems health.

Gender is often excluded or not even considered in ENSO reports. The final section is

conclusions.

2. ENSO Science 2.1 Description El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a natural climate phenomenon that results from air-sea

interactions in the tropical Pacific Ocean and those interactions influence the local to global

variability and extremes of weather and climate. It is the globe’s second most predictable

climatic fluctuation, after the natural flow of the seasons (Glantz, 2006). It occurs interannually,

approximately every 2 to 7 years, and typically lasts 12 to 18 months (Goddard et al., 2001). In

the last 20 years ENSO events have occurred more frequently (Trenberth, 1996).

ENSO consists of three events or phases: El Niño (warm event), La Niña (cold event), and

neutral (also referred to as normal or average). El Niño was first coined by Peruvian sailors in

the late 19th century, but was formally presented as the El Niño “current” at the Geographical

Society Congress in Lima ion 1892. It was named as such because the warming of the waters

off the coast of Peru coincided with the date of birth of the Christ child (as quoted in Glantz,

2001: 15).

Fig. 1A. In a neutral state, the southeast trade winds blow across the Tropical Pacific Ocean, dragging water towards the western end of the Pacific. A low pressure with wet conditions is developed at this western end while the eastern end is typically dry with high-pressure conditions. Off the coast of Peru and Ecuador, water that is being dragged west is being replaced by cold water from the deep ocean (known as upwelling) and water coming from the south via the Humboldt Current (Goddard et al., 2001).

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Fig. 1B. El Niño conditions in the Central Tropical Pacific Fig. 1C. La Niña conditions in the Central Tropical Pacific

Source: http://www.ccb.ucar.edu/enos/

During El Niño conditions (see Figure 1B), the equatorial sea surface temperature gradient

decreases, easterly winds weaken, and atmospheric surface pressure decreases in the eastern

Pacific Ocean. As a result, a positive feedback occurs; warm water from the western Tropical

Pacific shifts, and convective activity and rainfall move eastward to the western coast of South

America. In La Niña conditions (See Figure 1C), the opposite occurs; there is a strengthening of

easterly winds in the Tropical Pacific and opposite anomalies take place that are basin-wide

(Ahrens, 2000: 294 -297; Goddard et al., 2001). You can also think of La Niña as the

enhancement of neutral conditions (Glantz, 2001: 10). For both events anomalies are defined

as departures from the climatological average for the base period 1971 to 2000 (CPC, 2004).

The descriptions and illustrations above do not imply that these three events occur in a

sequence or that each event must occur during ENSO years. For example, La Niña may form

after El Niño dissipates and even remain as was evident in from 1998 to 2000. Furthermore,

each El Niño /La Niña events are never the same and will vary in magnitude and duration from

event to event (Glantz, 2001).

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2.2 Teleconnections Teleconnections are statistically and physically proven linkages between climate anomalies in

distance places (Glantz, 2001). They refer to changes in rainfall patterns and temperatures in

given places. During El Niño events, particularly in strong ones like those experienced in 1982-

83 and 1997-98, the teleconnections were more pronounced. And as such, many compare the

two and both were considered the El Niño of the century. The figures below developed by

Ropelewski & Halpert (1987) are highly cited and widely used by policymakers and researchers

to describe “typical” ENSO-related climate anomalies (Glantz, 2001). The relationships

displayed in the figures are based on 1700+ meteorological stations and data time series from

1875 to 1983 (Ropelewski & Halpert, 1987). Some have argued that a recalibration is in order

since recent events in some locations, specifically in Southeast Asia, have deviated from or not

complied with these descriptions (Glantz, 2001). Other limitations include appropriate

descriptions of influence on the coasts of Ecuador, Peru, and the interior of the Amazon Basin

(Ropelewski and Halpert, 1987). For the purpose of this paper, these charts will suffice to

describe the climatic influence on Latin America. Moreover, some descriptions of the ENSO

influence on the Amazon as reported by researchers will be provided.

Figure 2. El Niño (a) June to August and (b) December to February

(A)

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(B)

El Niño (La Niña) events typically begin developing in spring to summer (N. Hemisphere) lasting

until the winter (N. Hemisphere) and peaking around Christmas time. Fig. 2 (a) shows the

spring (N. Hemisphere) to summer tendencies during Niño. They are warmer conditions off the

coasts of Peru and Ecuador and Northeast and Southeast Brazil with drier and warmer

conditions over lower Central America and the Caribbean (especially in Hispaniola). In the

Galapagos Islands, extreme precipitation amounts were received during the 1982-83 El Niño,

which resulted in seven times the normal rainfall; there were also higher than usual sea surface

temperatures, creating extreme conditions for marine life (Glantz, 2001: 147). In contrast,

drought prone areas of Costa Rica receive less rainfall, exacerbating already existent water

stressed conditions in the areas. In southeastern Brazil, Uruguay, and northern Argentina, the

conditions are warmer and wetter and depending on where you live and how you earn a living

will determine how you are affected. The Caribbean seems to benefit by El Niño’s suppression

of hurricane formations. However, this is also dependent on what is happening in the Tropical

Atlantic Ocean (Glantz, 2001: 147). Fig. 2 (b) shows the winter (N. Hemisphere) tendencies

during El Niño. The northern coasts and southern coasts of Ecuador and Peru experience

torrential rains resulting in lake formation in some areas, which are typically semi-arid (Glantz,

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2001). Northeast Brazil’s, seasonal rainfall is disrupted when El Niño conditions alter the

behavior of the International Convergence Zone and the South American Monsoon, and inhibit

rainfall (). The Amazon rainforest, which is less talked about in ENSO’s teleconnections, is also

affected by this disruption. The seasonal December rains are reduced and occur irregularly and

this along with anthropogenic land-use changes in the area contributes to natural (unnatural)

forest fires. During the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño, rainfall in the Amazon fell by 70% and ~

50% below normal rainfall amounts (Moran et al., 2006).

Figure 3. La Nina (a) June to August and (b) December to February

(A) (B)

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Fig. 3A shows the spring (N. Hemisphere) to summer tendencies during La Niña. Northeast

Brazil experiences increased rainfall amounts (which is favorable to some extent) while parts of

Northern Mexico are drier and southeastern Brazil, Uruguay, and Northern Argentina have dry

and cool conditions. Again it is important to point out that La Niña’s teleconnections peak in

December and are strongest during this time. Fig. 3B shows the winter (N. Hemisphere)

tendencies during La Niña. Panama, Venezuela, and Colombia experience increased rainfall

and Northern Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay experience drought. This is evident in the

Pampas region of Argentina, where La Niña has strong influence and decreases rainfall

markedly (Glantz, 2001: 126). Another example is Cuba, where drier conditions are prevalent

during La Niña. However the influence varies according to the interaction of ENSO with

“modulating factors”, referring to another climate variability pattern called the Quasi-Biennial

Oscillation (Cardenas & Naranjo, 2001). Another tendency (argued by some) in Cuba and the

Caribbean region during La Niñas is favorable conditions for hurricanes (as quoted in Glantz,

2001: 143).

2.3 How We Know What We Know? ENSO interest and research has increased markedly in the last 30 years. This can be attributed

to two major events (1982-83 and 1997-98) and several other events that were considered to be

moderate to weak events. Together they have drawn the attention of science, government, and

the public to the ENSO phenomenon (Glantz, 2001; McPhaden et al, 2006). In recent years,

La Nina and its effects are increasingly being studied as well as neutral events. It’s not as if

anomalies or disasters do not occur during non-El Niño (La Niña) years (Goddard & Dilley,

2004). There have also been breakthroughs in El Niño knowledge such as the oscillator

feedback theory (Cane et al., 1986), which helped to explain the feedback mechanisms that

occur before, during, and after ENSO events. This was believed to help predict El Niño, but in

the last few El Niño it has not been consistently applicable; some believe it is now obsolete

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(Glantz, 2001). There have also been advances in technology such as computer memory and

speed, and better measurement capabilities via satellites and oceanic devices. These have

improved our ability to forecast and model past and to some extent future events (Glantz, 2001;

McPhaden et al, 2006).

Through research by the physical and social sciences, observations, paleoclimate studies, and

climate modeling along with statistical methods, the scientific community has gained a better

understanding of ENSO dynamics, its relationship to regional and the global climate system,

and its relationship to people and ecosystems (McPhaden et al, 2006). Environmental

monitoring by satellite (remote sensing), buoys, and weather balloons enable the tracking of the

development of ENSO events. We can observe when sea surface temperatures in the Tropical

Pacific Ocean are warming and spreading across the basin. Or when winds are enhancing and

sea level pressure drops. Indices have been developed to measure the statistical significance of

these observations. For example, the Southern Oscillation Index is a commonly used measure

that helps indicate when atmospheric pressure seesaws across the Tropical Pacific Ocean

(from Tahiti to Galapagos). Another important measure is the Niño 3.4 index, which indicates

anomalies on the sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Pacific Ocean. These indices are

used along with ground measurements of precipitation to estimate the relationship between El

Niño and local rainfall in a particular place, for example (El Nino Affairs, 2006).

We can understand past ENSO events by observing tree rings and inferring whether it was a

dry period or wet period, and by analyzing ice cores for indications of certain isotopes. Social

scientists and those in the humanities are also active in uncovering past El Niño information and

also in assessing societal responses or lack there of in relation to ENSO events. Historians use

anecdotes from shipping records and diaries, and compare these data with climatological

records or studies (CIESAS, 2006; Glantz, 2001). Anthropologists study human adaptation to

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ENSO events and how we interpret or perceive ENSO (El Nino Affairs, 2006; CIESAS, 2006)..

Public health scientists and geographers examine disease rates and their spatial distribution

and assess the role of ENSO events if any.

Monitoring, Modeling, Forecasting Tree Rings Agricultural Disasters in Mexico

3. Geography of Latin America 3.1 Socioeconomics and Population Population Latin America (LA) is comprised of more than 20 countries with a total population of more than

550 million people (Goode’s Atlas of Latin America, 2005). Since the 1980s, the population

increased by ~ 200 million people (UN report on World Population Prospects, 2005).

Urbanization has been occurring at a rapid rate since the last century. This trend has been

attributed to the population growth (medical advances and public health improvements) and

shifts in labor due to structural changes-some by choice and others by international pressures--

in their economic systems (Kent, 2006: 269). Fig. 4 illustrates an 85% growth from 1971 to

2001. However, annual growth rates declined in most countries from 2.5 to 1.5 due to

urbanization, social development and family planning initiatives (UNEP, 2003).

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Figure 4. Growth in Latin America by region

Mestizos (mixed European with indigenous ancestry) make up 70% of the population followed

by white Europeans (~20%), Africans or mixed African descent (less than 5%), and indigenous

(~2%). However these numbers vary by country. For example, Bolivia’s population is dominantly

of indigenous background. In Brazil, those of African heritage represent almost 50% of the

population and almost 90% in the Dominican Republic (Kent, 2006: 169 – 170).

LA cities are mainly found near the coast as Figure 5 illustrates but others like those in

Colombia and Mexico are found inland. Quito, which is the capital of Ecuador, is also found in

inland in the Andes amidst several active volcanoes. Knowing whether communities reside on

the coast, valley, or in the mountains near volcanoes can help assess what possible risks may

exist. It is also important to understand who lives there. The middle class have the mobility to

reside in decent housing or at least better housing than the poor and working class and in better

locations. The poor are often found living in worst of or marginal locations in the centers of cities

and outer edges of cities in what are referred to as “shantytowns” (Kent, 2006).

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Figure 5. Map of Latin American Cities. Several major cities such as Rio de Janeiro and Lima are located near the coasts and others such as Quito and Mexico City are located inland near volcanoes. They already may face hydrometeorological and geological hazards. Source: XXX

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Economy Total GDP for the region was 3.8 trillion dollars (U.S.) in 2004. Many LA countries experienced

positive economic growth (UNEP, 2003; Kent, 2006) and double digit inflation (World Bank,

2006) during the 1990s but differences varied within the region. Mexico and Central America

exhibited steady gains throughout the decade while growth in the Caribbean islands declined in

the mid-1990s and South America grew stagnantly. If we observe GDP per capita from 1980 to

2000, we see a different picture, one in which many countries experienced negative economic

growth. They include Ecuador, Peru, Haiti, Guatemala, Honduras and Venezuela (Sachs, 2004:

67). According to Sachs, these countries are victims of the poverty trap and share some similar

characteristics such as geographic (their location) difficulties, sharp ethnic or class differences

(unrest), and vulnerability to the global market and natural hazards (2004: 71).

At turn the of 21st century until 2003, economic performance in the region in terms of GDP per

capita was either stagnant or diminishing--that is except for Chile and Mexico, whose

economies were positive. Figure 6 illustrates the market fluctuations and how LA regions

responded (UNEP, 2003). Figure 7 shows a few select countries and their GDP per Capita for

selected years (Singh et al., 2005). Within the last few years, economic growth seems to be

promising with a GDP growth rate of 4.6% last year and 6.0% in 2004, reportedly the highest in

25 years. However, GDP and GDP per capita as indicators only give a partial truth or rather a

skewed view of LA’s socioeconomic realities. If we delve further, we can see that income

disparity has also been growing. In fact, the region compared to other regions and the global

average suffers the greatest income inequalities and much has not changed in the last 15 years

(United Nations Population Fund, 2006). Furthermore, approximately 42.9% of the people are

living in poverty (living on less than $2.00 U.S. a day) and ~ 18.9% of the population lives in

extreme poverty (living on less than $1.00 U.S. a day) (United Nations Population Fund,

2006). Within the extreme poverty figures, indigenous populations, which are traditionally

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marginalized, represent ~ 25.0% of the total (Singh et al., 2005). These populations are

typically the most affected during and after extreme weather-related events or natural disasters

(Glantz, 2001).

Figure 6. GDP per Capita in Latin America by region Figure 7.Real GDP per Capita in Selected Countries. Source: Singh et al., 2005 Development Indicators This subsection describes some additional indicators that can be combined with GDP and GDP

per Capita in order to better assess a country’s well being and vulnerability. Some are listed in

Table X. Cropland percentage is important since a good percentage of the population is

employed in the agricultural sector. The Gini Index measures income distribution in the country

(the higher the greater inequalities in the country) (Todarro & Smith, 2003: 796). Two

measurements that address health are infant mortality and malnutrition. The former measures

the number of children who die per 1000 before their first birthday and the latter is inadequate

diet and health measured in average daily protein consumption (Todarro & Smith, 2003: 53,

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801). See Figures for maps of infant mortality and malnutrition in LA. Other indicators that can

indicate basic needs in development are sanitation and safe water supply.

Table 1. Selected Country Indicators that characterize development and vulnerability

Country Population Urban Cropland GDP GDP per capita Gini Index

Belize 270,000 48.1 4.5 1,280,000,000 4,900

Costa Rica 3,925,000 59.5 10.3 32,000,000,000 8,500 46.5

El Salvador 6,530,000 61.5 43.2 29,410,000,000 4,700 53.2

Guatemala 14,095,000 39.9 17.5 53,200,000,000 3,700 59.9

Honduras 6,745,000 53.7 12.7 16,290,000,000 2,600 55.0

Nicaragua 5,180,000 56.5 16.7 11,160,000,000 2,500 43.1

Panama 2,980,000 56.5 9.2 18,060,000,000 6,000 56.4

Central America 39,725,000 161,400,000,000

Mexico 104,340,000 74.6 13.9 924,400,000,000 9,000 54.6

Cuba 11,290,000 75.5 40.3 30,690,000,000 2,300

Dominican Republic 8,775,000 66.0 32.9 53,780,000,000 6,100 47.4

Haiti 7,590,000 36.3 39.6 10,600,000,000 1,700

Puerto Rico* 3,900,000 5.6 73,270,000,000 18,700

Caribbean 31,555,000 168,340,000,000

Argentina 38,945,000 88.3 12.6 403,800,000,000 10,200 52.2

Bolivia 8,655,000 62.9 2.8 21,150,000,000 2,500 44.7

Brazil 183,080,000 81.7 7.8 1,376,000,000,000 7,600 59.3

Chile 15,745,000 86.1 3.0 156,100,000,000 10,000 57.1

Colombia 41,985,000 75.5 3.7 251,600,000,000 6,500 57.6

Ecuador 13,840,000 63.4 10.5 42,650,000,000 3,100 43.7

Guyana 705,000 36.7 2.4 2,628,000,000 4,000

Paraguay 6,115,000 56.7 7.6 25,190,000,000 4,200 57.8

Peru 28,640,000 73.1 3.3 138,800,000,000 4,800 49.8

Suriname 435,000 74.8 0.4 1,469,000,000 3,500

Uruguay 3,425,000 92.1 7.7 26,820,000,000 7,800 44.6

Venezuela 24,835,000 87.2 3.7 131,700,000,000 5,500 49.1

South America

Latin America

Source: Data was retrieved from Goode’s

LA is fairing better in most development goals than regions like Subs-Saharan Africa and South

Asia (UNDP, 2006), but malnutrition and infant mortality continues to persist in the region. (See

Figures 8 and 9).

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Figure 8. Map of Malnutrition in Latin America

Source: CIESIN, 2005

Figure 9. Map of Infant Mortality in Latin America

Source: CIESIN, 2005

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Safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are crucial needs that enable health in communities.

When these services are inadequate in a population, diseases such as cholera and diarrheal

disease can thrive. According to the Joint Monitoring Programme of the WHO and UNICEF, in

the last 20 years, ~ 112 million people in urban areas and ~16 million people in rural areas have

been connected to “adequate” sanitation, however that is defined, in the last 15 years (2006). ~

119 million people have been served in urban areas and ~ 15 million people in rural areas with

improved water supply. The figures below show that although progress has been made, there

remain a large number of people underserved and a discrepancy between rural and urban. The

former as expected have a larger percentage that lack proper water and sanitation services.

Figure 10. Latin America: (A) Access to Sanitation (B) Access to Safe Drinking Water

Source: http://www.wsp.org/

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Shifting Politics in Latin America and Governance In 2005, Bolivia saw its first and the region’s first indigenous president. In 2006, Chile elected its

first female president. Latin America’s politics in the last decade have been shifting in the “right”

direction--meaning a direction that appears to be more freely chosen by the people and leaders.

Recent elections in Nicaragua could break the stronghold of the right-leaning governments in

the Central American region. South America has slowly been shifting and current elections in

Ecuador may sway another country in that direction (Economist, 2006). Some attribute the shift

to structural economic reforms of the 1980s and 1990s and its impacts on LA societies; while

growth on some level has been evident, so has increasing inequitable distribution of income

(Weisbrot, 2006). These changes may hopefully lead overtime to greater autonomy, increased

resilience to global market fluctuations (and natural disasters), and finally a chance for stability

in governance. Ecuador has seen several presidents in the last decade; Haiti’s president was

“removed” from office with the help of U.S. troops in 2004; Insurgencies in Colombia along with

the drug trade maintains instability in the country. These are just a few of the problems that LA

countries face while contending with nature-related challenges such as ENSO weather.

3.2 Weather and Climate Latin America is a vast territory in the western hemisphere that ranges from the Subtropics to

the Tropics and Mid-latitudes in the southern hemisphere. Its biogeography is diverse and

includes many mountain ranges, plateaus, river basins, rainforests, grasslands, and even

deserts (Kent, 2006). Both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans surround Central America, Mexico,

and South America and the Caribbean Islands are encircled by the Atlantic Ocean. The Pacific

and Atlantic Oceans strongly influence their regional and local climates as well as global

climate. The main dominating climate patterns and systems in the region are ENSO, the Pacific

Decadal Oscillation ( larger scale variability pattern that simulates ENSO and interacts with it),

South American Monsoon, the International Tropical Convergence Zone (high convection

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Areas), and seasonal fluctuations (Kent, 2006; Podesta et al, .). A disruption of the expected

seasonal rainfall due to ENSO or other climate dynamics has serious implications for areas

where water is stressed and agricultural activity is dependent.

In the last year, several reports (Moreno, 2006; DFID, 2006; Simms et al., 2006) addressing

the issue of climate change in the region have been published. They report that Latin American

countries are not excluded from the global warming phenomenon. Studies have shown that

temperatures and precipitation patterns in the region have followed global trends (IPCC, 2001;

Hulme & Sheard, 1998; Simms et al., 2006). In Peru and Colombia, glaciers have been

receding. In the Caribbean, although warming has not been conclusively linked to hurricanes,

the intensity and frequency of hurricanes have increased in the last 10 years (Emanuel, 2005;

UNEP, 2003).The IPCC has projected that more El Nino-like weather (meaning extreme) is

expected in a warmer world, a scenario that Latin American countries face every few years

when the pattern develops.

Figure 11. Hurricane Trends in the Caribbean since 1945

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4. Ecological and Societal impacts

This section describes the effects of ENSO-related weather and climate on society, institutions,

and ecosystems. It is important to note that ENSO combined with the existing conditions will

determine the results, positive or negative. In other words, El Niño is only partly to blame.

Examples will be given from recent ENSO events and from country case studies examining the

1997-98 El Niño. The map below presents a closer look at the ENSO teleconnections in the

Latin American region.

Figure 12. Regional Impacts of El Nino in Latin America

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4.1 Economy and Politics ENSO-related weather and climate can affect all the sectors of a state, its industries, and

directly and indirectly affect the society within the state. In Latin America, the disruption of

livelihoods can be detrimental considering that many in the population are vulnerable to

economic and climate shocks (DFID, 2006). In many cases, the states as well are vulnerable

and lack the resources, organization, capacity or even political relationships to respond

appropriately even with an El Niño Forecast. This was evident in Peru and Costa Rica during

and after the 1997-98 El Niño. In Peru, Fujimori “took on” El Niño and mobilized its own

resources as well as funds from the World Bank for mitigation. Peru encountered jurisdictional

constraints between sectors, but overall was successful in minimizing damage. Costa Rica on

the other hand had better scientific capabilities and regional organizational capacity, but was

limited by resources (Glantz et al. manuscript). According to Glantz et al. (manuscript), Costa

Rica was denied financial assistance even though their contingency planning was well

structured.

The political and economic infrastructure of the Latin American states (affected by ENSO)

suffered damage through impacts on the population’s health, a shock to the state’s capacity,

state infrastructure, and loss or enhancement of its natural resources, and biodiversity. The

impacts can be seen prior to, during, and after ENSO events. For example, an assessment from

CEPAL (Comision Economica para America Latina y el Caribe) found that the socioeconomic

impacts from the 97/98 El Niño in Ecuador were as follows:

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Source: Cornejo-Grunauer, 2001: 80

The aftermath of the 1997-98 El Niño proved that coast and island populations in Ecuador were

affected the most. Cities and highways were flooded, which in some places are only available

during certain seasons. (Cornejo-Grunauer, 2001: 80-81). Although Ecuador was able to

respond quickly, it lacked the resources and organization to appropriately address impacts that

were based on impacts from previous ENSO events such as the 1982-83 event. Remember

ENSO events are never the same and population demographics change overtime. Ecuador at

the time was enduring a long period of political instability having gone through four presidents in

three years (96 to 98). Its private sector became alarmed. Not only were products lost, but also

transportation for products to markets became disrupted. In Ecuador transportation costs on the

coast increased based on El Niño forecasts. When harvests were lost, market prices rose

(Cornejo-Grunauer, 2001: 81). As the chart illustrates, millions of dollars were lost and limited

resources had to be reallocated to address the situation.

At the local-level, the population can be affected through health effects (direct and indirect),

prices changes of food and other basic needs, changes in product availability, disruption of

work, and a breakdown or worsening of infrastructure and social services. In Peru like Ecuador,

the rural communities disproportionately felt the effects of ENSO. According to Reyes (2002),

this consisted of almost 400,000 people. Their homes were either damaged or lost due to

floods. Furthermore in rural uplands, the people, mainly small-scale farmers were more

1997-98 El Niño Impacts on Ecuador

Sector and subsector Direct damages Indirect Damages External effects Total

Social (a) 63.1 129.1 29.2 192.2

Infrastructure (b) 123.3 707 80.2 830.3

Economic (c) 582.9 709 545.4 1291.9

Expenses and mitigation 333.1 333.1

Total 769.3 1878.2 654.8 2647.5

In millions U.S.

a. housing, health, education

b. water and sewage, energy, transportation, telecommunications, urban infrastructure

c. agriculture, livestock, fisheries, industry, commerce, tourism

25

vulnerable due to geographic location and political marginalization (Reyes, 2002). It’s likely that

these communities are not insured and therefore the losses can become permanent and worsen

their living conditions. These changes in social conditions affect migration patterns within the

country as a disrupted labor force is shifting to look for work. In the Northeast Brazil, the shift is

to the metropolitan areas of the south like Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paolo (Taddei et al., 2003).

4.2 Agriculture Climate variability is an important variable that farmers must contend with seasonally and every

few years when ENSO arrives. It can affect their livelihood and food security for both their

families and their animals. Insufficient rainfall or changes in the frost can severely hurt harvest.

In places the Argentine Pampas, El Niño typically brings more rainfall to the region and is

looked on favorably by farmers. Maize and soybean crops in this region and in Uruguay have

been found to coincide with ENSO events, particularly in the last 18 years (Baethgen &

Gimenez, 2004). For example, maize in the Argentine Pampas is associated with higher yields

during El Niño and lower yields during La Niña (Podesta et al., 1999). In Uruguay, this is clearly

illustrated in their maize yields since the 1950s (See Fig. 13 found in Baethgen & Gimenez,

2004).

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Figure 13. National Uruguayan maize yield distribution (1950-1999) and ENSO phases

Source: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/societal/example/BaethgenPlot.html#Fig1

In water stressed areas like Northeast Brazil, El Niño can exacerbate social conditions because

it disrupts their seasonal rainfall. The results are poor rain fed farmers have less water available,

crops fail, and farmers exhaust their grain reserves and even eat their livestock. Some farmers

can become indebted and sell their land to larger agricultural companies (Taddei et al., 2003).

During the 1997-98 El Niño, Cuba experienced the worst drought conditions in their April to

June season since 1941. In addition to a drier weather, they were also hit with hailstorms, high

winds, and unusual amount of pest infestations. Sugar cane production was down by 700,000

metric tons; potato crops yield decreased by approximately 18,000 metric tons, and 6,710 ha of

banana fields were lost. In the Eastern province of Cuba, milk production fell dramatically and

13,000 animals died from malnutrition (Naranjo-Diaz, 2001: 73).

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4.3 Fisheries The anomalous warming of the Tropical Pacific Ocean during El Niño events can produce

severe environmental changes for marine life off the coast of Peru, Ecuador, and Chile.

Biological productivity is altered due to changes in sea surface temperatures and upwelling

processes, which normally bring nutrients to the surface for various aquatic biota. Many fish die

and others migrate south towards Chile, and are replaced by opportunist warm water species

(Glantz, 2001). The damage on the fishing industry and related industries (fishmeal) has been

evident in the last 30 years. As Figure 14 shows, the anchoveta and sardine industries have

marked declines in the El Niño years of 1972-73, 1982-83, and 1997-98. In Ecuador, during El

Niño, the anchoveta population is replaced with yellowfin tuna (Cornejo-Grunauer, 2001: 81),

which can be deemed a loss or gain depending on which fleet you participate in. However, while

the northwestern coast of South America may experience losses in fishing, the northern coast of

Chile experiences gains when migrating fish are caught near Peru’s border (Glantz, 2001: 267).

In Cuba, the lobster fishing industry lost almost $9 million (U.S.) due to the extreme weather in

1997-98 (Naranjo-Diaz, 2001: 73). El Niño and La Niña weather coupled with impacts from

overfishing practices in Hispaniola contributed to the overall outcome.

Figure 14. Fishing Industry in Peru from 1970 – 2001.

The red circle indicate El Nino years where fishing declined.

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4.4 Gender Most El Niño studies do not address gender differentiations, and therefore lessons learned

assessments are actually lessons missed. As gender studies in Latin America have shown,

women face discrimination and many inequities as citizens of their states and within their own

communities and family structures (Reyes, 2002; Hays-Mitchell, 2002; Rico, 1998). They are a

subgroup within vulnerable populations and deserve inclusion and examination in weather-

related assessments. Furthermore, women are likely responsible for water distribution in their

households in rural communities. And as we know, El Niño can strongly affect the water supply

in many places. Rico states, “it is poor women who have to cope on a day-to-day basis with

shortages of water and problems of access” (1998). Therefore, shouldn’t women be included in

the overall contingency plans for El Niño and other weather-related events? Reyes (2002) found

that in the rural community of Piura in Peru, women faced inequality in food distribution,

education, and healthcare. This area is typically arid, but when El Niño strikes, it becomes

flooded and lakes form (Glantz, 2001: 75). During the 1997-98 El Niño, women who were

already facing malnutrition were further exposed to cholera and malaria. As mentioned earlier,

El Niño-related climate and economic shocks can trigger migrations of the labor force, which in

rural areas are likely to be men. This creates further stress on women who must take on

additional responsibilities as heads of households while grappling with existing stress from

discrimination in their respective communities (Reyes, 2002).

4.5 Human and Ecosystems Health

Human Populations ENSO events, particularly its warm phase El Niño, are considered spawners of disasters in

Latin American countries (Glantz, 2001). Again, ENSO does not work alone and many times,

the existing conditions of the population and state can determine the impacts and the degree of

impacts. El Niño can affect health directly through physical injuries created by El- Niño induced

29

floods or by floods that contribute that enable contamination of the water supply (Few et al.,

2004). But in many cases, the impacts are indirect. For example, drought conditions can affect

food supply through its effect on agriculture. Therefore El Niño has been blamed for many

famines in the Northeast. More commonly is its association with disease epidemics. During the

1991 to 1995 El Niño, the longest recorded ENSO event (Trenberth & Hoar, 1996), several

significant outbreaks took place and certainly El Niño was blamed. Environmental changes

affect the ecology of certain disease parasites and their vectors in both favorable and

unfavorable ways (Kovats et al., 2003).

Mosquito-borne diseases like dengue and malaria and their weather relations have been well

documented. Epidemics typically occur in places where the population is not immune and where

climate or other environmental factors may play a role in limiting the disease. It cannot be

generalized because the disease ecology and human exposure will depend on the place and

maybe time of year. In some places, outbreaks may follow heavy rainfall, where in others they

may follow drought conditions. In parts of Colombia, malaria has been found to occur in post

drought conditions related to El Niño. (See Figure 15). According to Kovats et al. (2003),

predator populations of the mosquito are affected adversely in drier conditions; this in turn

enables mosquitoes to increase in populations. However, changes in human activities like

deforestation and migration patterns areas also contribute to human exposure.

30

Figure 15. Dengue and Malaria in Colombia

Cholera is water-borne disease that reemerged in 1990 in Latin America. A major outbreak

began in 1991 in the northern coast of Peru (Barua & Greenough III, 1992). (See Figure 16).

Since then it has been documented in almost all the countries in the region. It is believed that

the waste of infected passengers aboard a ship off the coast of Peru was responsible. The

waste was dumped into the waters and contaminated the water supplies on the coast. Many

believe that El Niño-induced rains created flooding conditions that helped to overwhelm the

water and sanitation systems in Peru. It is also believed that the warming of the sea during El

Niño, enhanced the population of vibrios and their reservoirs (phytoplankton), which then

increased exposure to human populations (Seas et al., 2000; Huq et al., 2001).

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Figure 16. Cholera & El Nino from 1991 - 2002

Ecosystems ENSO events can also affect ecosystems. As described earlier, the changes in sea

temperatures affect the migration patterns and mortality of various fish, crustaceans (shrimp,

lobster), and phytoplankton. These changes in populations affect the food chain and can

indirectly affect other populations. A good example was presented in a study of the 1982-83 El

Niño effects on the Galapagos Islands off the coast of Ecuador. During that time, the region

experienced anomalously warm sea surface temperatures and air temperatures. According to

Glantz (2001), both marine life and life on land were impacted for better or worse. Vegetation

exploded on land and the Galapagos finch population grew dramatically. However many

species did not farewell. The flightless cormorant suffered a 45% decrease and penguins

suffered a 78% decrease in population. Whales and porpoises were not seen and likely

migrated to places with food. Corals, “considered the rainforests of the sea”, reportedly suffered

greatly (Glantz, 2001: 149-151). Corals are sensitive to small changes in the environment.

32

During the 1997-98 El Niño Panama reported losses of almost 50-90% of their corals in several

sites after experiencing a degree and a half in sea surface temperature increase (NOAA, 1998).

Figure 15. Coral Bleaching

Source: NOAA

5. Conclusions In conclusion, I sum up some of the challenges that Latin American states and their populations

face when ENSO strikes.

Challenges at time of ENSO in Latin American States

State-level

civil unrest

geographic position of country in ENSO line of fire

growing income disparities

limited resources

major cities geographically located at places of risk

multiple emergencies

political instability

rural areas lack social services

vulnerable to global market forces

lack organization between different government sectors (i.e. Peru during 1997-98)

may lack technical expertise

loss of resources (loss of glaciers can result in loss of run-off water)

uncertainty that comes with climate forecasts

Population-level

armed conflict in some areas

lack of adequate water, sanitation, and health services, particularly those in rural areas

live in locations of hazard (on slopes, near coasts)

many are living in poverty and lack resources

marginalization of indigenous groups, poor, women

suffer multiple health problems (malnutrition, infant mortality, vector-borne diseases, diarrheal diseases)

Other factors that may be considered but that were not included in this study because of time

constraints are environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. How might these factors

33

affect El Niño outcomes in a place or region? One way may be to investigate the relationships

between different types of ‘hotspots’ for environmental problems and El Niño ‘hotspots’ (Glantz,

2002). Hot spots in this context can refer to places or regions where environmental degradation

and loss of biodiversity are reaching a threshold. Do El Niño ‘hotspots’ overlap?

Considering all the variables in ENSO disaster management can potentially better prepare the

state, its population, and the international community. As I have illustrated, the variables are not

isolated but indeed are interconnected. Public education programs administered during a crisis

such as a cholera outbreak may promote hygienic practices (i.e. washing your hands, boiling

water) and discourage certain foods (i.e. from vendors, seafood). However, if the population at

risk has limited water supply or relies on certain foods for subsistence without substitutes

available (at a lower cost), then how can that population cope? In other words, disaster

strategists in Latin America and abroad must recognize that their plans are implemented in the

context of a vulnerable population and a multiple crisis environment.

During ENSO events multiple states may face similar types of emergencies such as floods or

disease outbreaks. It is possible that a geographic hub of emergency is created during El Niños

and that as whole (this hub or ‘hotspot’) the region may be weakened. Can Ecuador rely on its

neighbors for assistance, for example? This is unlikely since their neighbors are also facing EL

Nino crises. Can Ecuador seek assistance from the international community? Possibly, but so

are its neighbors; there will be a competition for funding as was evident in Peru and Costa Rica.

Can an alliance of states form that pools resources to address ENSO? CIIFEN in Ecuador is an

international organization hoping to address this problem (CIIFEN, 2006), but what I am

suggesting is an international body like PAHO, for example, may possibly be formed. CIIFEN

although it has the best intentions may compete with neighboring organizations as well as those

abroad. This could prove fruitful for rich countries in the north that seek to examine disaster

34

management strategies. Can the UN create an agency that addresses effectively ENSO type

and similar events in that region? ENSO is the second most predictable climate phenomenon

besides the season (McPhaden et al., 2006) and Latin America with its highly urbanized cities

may provide an excellent setting for strategy testing particularly in the context of multiple

emergencies. Is such a plan possible and can it be achieved in an ethical and equitable way

that is sustainable?

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