Developing an Agricultural Planning Model Considering Future Climate

By: I Putu Santikayasa

Water Engineering and Management (WEM), School of Engineering and Technology , Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) -Thailand Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), Bogor - Indonesia email: psantika@gmail.com

Presented on International Young Researchers’ Workshop River Basin Environment and Management 8-9 February 2014, Thailand

Acknowledgement

I would like to acknowledge the CREEW, AIT, ICRE – Yamanasi and Brawijaya University for organizing this workshop

Outline Introduction Framework and study area Result Conclusion

Introduction Agricultural uses > 70 % of all water

withdrawals With increasing the water scarcity, it is

needed to increase the agriculture water productivity

FAO (2012): ◦ Population 7 billion (2010) 9 billion (2050) ◦ 60% more food is needed ◦ increasing agriculture water consumption

Introduction

Agricultural Water

Management Planning

Water Scarcity Water Allocation Competing

Water Demand

Climate Change

“Water resources planning should react to these changes in order to better respond to future public needs and expectations”

“Considering the climate change, in order

to optimize the agricultural water

productivity, the practical framework and model based on

comprehensive research and studies need to be

developed ”

Agriculture Planning Model Framework

GCM (HadCM3)

SDSM

A2 and B2 emission scenarios

WEAP Model

Water availability

Water Allocation

Model (WEAP)

Water Requirement

Management scenario

Agriculture Water Use Reliability

𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶

= 1 −∑𝑥𝑥)𝑛𝑛

𝑥𝑥 100%

X= if Demand > Supply then 1, else 0

1. Global and watershed data generation

2. Hydrological Model

3. Water Allocation and Scenario development

4. Agriculture Planning Model

Case Study The model is applied in Citarum River

basin at West Tarum Canal Irrigation Area

Citarum River Basin

• Precipitation : 1500 – 4000 mm.

• Tropical area • Temperature : 24.7o –

27.3o C • Wet November- April • Dry May –August • Three main Irrigation

Area (WTC, ETC, NTC) • WTC is the main sources

of water supply to capital city Jakarta

WTC

NTC

ETC

Canal System and Irrigation area

NTC

ETC

Java Sea

Bekasi sub-catchment

Cikarang sub-catchment

Cibeet sub-catchment

Citarum sub-catchment

Bekasi

Cikarang Cibeet Curug WTC

WTC= West Tarum canal ETC=East Tarum Canal NTC=North Tarum Canal

Irrigation Area

Sub Catchment

Reservoir

Future Climate and Water Supply

Temperature Projection

0.14

0.73

1.46

0.15

0.5

0.97

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0

2020s 2050s 2080s

Tem

pera

ture

(oC

)

Change of Temperature Compared with the Historical Period (1961 - 1990)

A2 Scenario

B2 Scenario

A2 Scenario

B2 Scenario

Precipitation Projection

23

55

88

27 36

46

0102030405060708090

100

2020s 2050s 2080s

% c

hang

es

Percentages Changes of Precipitation Compared with the Historical Period (1961 - 1990)

A2 Scenario

B2 Scenario

A2 Scenario

B2 Scenario

A2 climate Projection

B2 climate Projection

Streamflow is expected to increase in the future

Streamflow

Irrigation Water Requirement (Annual average)

Curug Cibeet Cikarang Bekasi Historical 58.2

(58.2) 390.4

(390.4) 344.8

(344.8) 119.9

(119.9) 2020s A2 55.8

(55.8) 336.1

(336.1) 279.5

(279.5) 95.2

(95.2) B2 52.3

(52.3) 323.3

(323.3) 262.1

(262.1) 90.0

(90.0) 2050s A2 47.5

(42.9) 257.2

(230.9) 202.2

(179.9) 69.8

(62.1) B2 51.2

(44.5) 304.5

(257.7) 251.1

(213.8) 84.2

(71.3) 2080s A2 29.9

(21.8) 138.6 (96.8)

120.3 (81.7)

40.8 (29.1)

B2 43.2 (26.0)

207.8 (126.8)

207.9 (104.8)

57.6 (36.0)

* ( ) Irrigation water supply

2020 s

2050 s

2080 s

Time (month)

Irrig

atio

n w

ater

(MCM

)

Irrigation Water Requirement

Irrigation Water Supply

Irrigation Water Requirement - Supply

Monthly

Agriculture water use Reliability Re

liabi

lity

(%)

How is the model framework applied to the agriculture planning? The model is applied to evaluate the management planning:

1. Increasing the irrigation area (P1) 2. Increasing crop intensity (P2)

Agriculture Water Use Reliability

Relia

bilit

y (%

)

Relia

bilit

y (%

)

A2 Climate Scenario

B2 Climate Scenario

Conclusion The future projection in Citarum River Basin: ◦ Increasing temperature ◦ Increasing precipitation ◦ Increasing water availability (supply)

The reliability of agriculture water use is expected to decrease in the future because more water is expected to allocate to non-agricultural purpose

Compared with the baseline scenario, increasing the irrigation area is more reliable than increasing the crop intensity.

The integration of SDSM – WEAP provides the useful tool to model the agriculture management and planning

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Thank you