demographic and socio-economic correlates of urban ... - CORE

DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CORRELATES OF URBAN DYNAMICS-

A CASE STUDY OF BANGLADESH

R E J U A N H O S S A I N B H U I Y A N

THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE DEGREE OF

Mottox of ^Ijilo^opljp IN

G E O G R A P H Y

1991

DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY ALIGARH MUSLIM UNIVERSITY

ALIGARH (INDIA)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This work could not have mater ia l ized in this form had there been no guidance from Professor Abdul Aziz, Department of Geography, Al igarh Muslim Univers i t y , A l i garh . His encoura-gement, and insight into the subject were a lways a constant source of inspirat ion. I am h igh ly indebted to him.

I also f ee l h igh ly indebtedness to Professor Shafi, f o r his useful suggestion. I also thankful to Professor Farooq Siddiqi, Chairman, Department of Geography fo r h is constant support in a l l respects and the help rendered, wherever the need arose.

I am also thankful to Professor Mehdi Raza and all faculty members for providing me adequate guidance and support from time to time.

I would l ike to record my sincere thanks to Dr. Fakhruddin, Lecturer of this Department and Dr. Mohammad Firoz Khan, Reader, Jamia Milia Islamia, Delhi for their valuable suggestions. ^

My research colleagues of the Department of , Geography deserve a spec ia l mention for prov id ing the moral support in completing this work. The occasional discussions that I used to have with them benefitted me a l o t . My special thank to f e l l ow researchers Mrs. Shipra Banarjee, Mr. Zurgham Uddin Khairoowala, Mr. Mohammad Tahir, Ms. Rashida Khatoon, Mr. Mahmud Al l Khan, Mr. Shamim and Mr. Sarwar Alam.

I am also grateful to Mr. Sira j Uddin Ahmed, research scholar in Business Administration Department, Mr. Abul Hossain research scholar in Phys i cs Department and other Bangladeshi who help me in research work .

Bes ides the Al igarh Muslim Univers i t y , thanks are also due to Professor Moniruzzaman Miah, ViceChancel lor and Professor Emazuddin, former Pro-Vice-Chance l lor , Dhaka Univers i ty , for encouragement throughout my work.

I am thankful to Professor Nazrul Islam, Director, CUS Associate Pro fessor Dr. (Mrs . ) Rosie M. Ahsan,' Associate P ro f essor Abdul Baqee, and Associate Pro fessor Dr. Zia-us-Shams Haq, Department of Geography, Univers i ty of Dhaka, Bangladesh from whom I rece ived many valuable suggestions.

I am spec ia l l y grateful to Dr. Humayun Kabir Ex-Di rec tor . Mrs. Khadiza Khatun, Director , Dr. Ashraf Uddin Ahmed Associate Professor , Mr. P.K. Matiur Rehman Associate Professor , Mr. Khan A. Matin Associate Pro fessor , and Mr. Mohammed Shayieb

Assistant Pro fessor , Institute of Stat ist ical Research and Training, Univers i ty of Dhaka for the i r he lp and encouragement.

I also o f f e r my thanks to Mr. Kazi Shafiuddin Ahmed Secretary and Mr. M. Masudur Rahman, ISRT, Dhaka Univers i ty for the i r help in d i f f e r en t phases of work .

My spec ia l thanks to Dr . Kamal Islam of UNICEF, Dr . Asma Khanum of ICDDR, B, Dr. Ashraful Haq and Dr. Mohammad Musa of CARE for the i r encouragement throughout my study. Within the Bangladeshi f r i ends , I am most obl iged to my f r i ends in Bangladesh, Dr . Kausar Mustafa, Lecturer, Ph i losophy , Dhaka Univers i ty , Mr. Kh. Mukaddem Hossain, Lecturer, Socio logy, Dhaka Un ivers i t y , Mr. Asadur Rahman, UNICEF, Dhaka, Mr. Atiqur Rahman, Lecturer, Social Wel fare, Dhaka Univers i ty f o r providing help in pr imary and secondary data co l lect ion.

Both India and Bangladesh governments are duly acknowledged for f inancial support in India which made th is study poss ib l e .

I am deep ly grateful to ray departed mother who passed away waiting my return from my studies in India.

I am grateful to my brothers Mr. Sakhwat Hossain and Mr. Hedayet Hossain for the ir help and encouragement.

I am indebted to Refaya and Lovely, who bore my absence.

I also o f f e r my thanks to Mr. Najmuddin and Mrs. Rana Askari, L ibrar ian, Seminar L i b ra r y , Geography Department, A .M .U . , A l igarh giv ing optimum f a c i l i t i e s .

F ina l ly , I thank Mr. H.S. Sharma for helping me in typing the thes is .

REJUAN HOSSAIN BHUIYAN

CONTENTS Page;

Acknowledgements i

L ist of Tables v i i

L ist of Figures x

List of Photographs x i i i

CHAPTER-I: INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 OPERATIONAL DEFINITION AND CONCEPTS 1

1 .1 .1 Demographic and Socio-Econonic Correlates

1 .1 .2 Urban Dynamics

1.2 BACKGROUND STUDIES 3

1.3 SfOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 8

1.4 STUDY AREA 11

1 .4 .1 Location and Extent

1.4.2 Area and Population

1 .4 .3 Physical Setting

1 .4 .4 Climate and Soils

1.5 METHODOLOGY (METHODS AND MATERIALS) 15

1.5.1 Data Base

1 .5 .2 Sampling Procedure

1 .5 .3 Selection of Urban Centers ar.d Variables

1.5.4 Technical and Analyt ical Procedures

1.5.5 Method of Principal Componer.t Analysis

1.6 ORGANIZATION 2 8

CHAPTER-II: EVOLUTION AND CLASSIFICATION OF URBAN 39

SETTLEMENTS IN BANGLADESH

2.1 GENESIS OF URBAN PLACES 40

2.1,1 Urban Centers in Ancient period

• 2.1.2 Urban Centers in Medieval period

IV

Pages

2.1.3 Urbanization in the Modern Period

2.2 FACTORS OF URBAN DYNAMICS 5 3

2.3 URBAN POPULATION DYNAMICS AND IT 'S 55 IMPLICATION

2.3.1 Growth Trends

2.4 GROWTH OF URBAN SETTLEMENTS IN DIFFERENT SIZE-CLASS (1901-1981)

2 .4 .1 Size and Distribution of Urban Centers

2.4.2 Size and Proportion of Population in Di f ferent Classes.

2.5 Spatial Interaction and Urban Population 82 Growth by Region

2 .5 .1 Urban Population Growth by Region

3.5.2 Densities of Urban Population

2.6 FLUCTUATIONS IN THE RANK OF URBAN CENTERS 102

2.7 MEAN SIZE OF URBAN CENTERS 109

CHAPTER-m: SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIMENSION OF URBAN 115

DYNAMICS

3.1 SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF SELECTED URBAN 115 CENTERS

3.2 SPATIO-TEMPORAL DIMENSION OF URBAN 118 POPULATION OF SELECTED URBAN CENTERS

3 .2 .1 Population Growth Characterist ics of the Selected Urban Centers

3.2.2 Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Population Density in the Selected Urban Cmters .

3.2.3 Age Composition

3.2.4 Sex Composition

3.2.5 Dependency Ratio

3.2.6 Literacy

3.3 Occupational Structure 145

3 .3 .1 Definition of Occupation

V

Pages

3.3.2 Employment and Town Size

3.3.3 Basic Occupational Classi f icat ion

3.3.4 Urban Occupational Structure

3.3.5 Changing Pattern of Urban Occupational Structure

3.3.6 Changing Features in Occupational Structure

3.4 FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION OF URBAK CENTERS 8

3.4.1 Method Appl ied f o r Functional Classif ication fo r Urban Centers,

3.4.2 Functional Categories of Urban Centers

CHAPTER-IV: FACTORIAL ^ECOLOGY OF URBAN DYNAMICS 192

4.1 FACTORIAL ECOLOGY; CROSS SECTIONAL 194 ANALYSIS OF 40 URBAN CENTERS

4.2 ECOLOGY OF URBAN CENTERS OF BANGL.ADESH: 197 CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS OF VARI.ABLES 1961

4.2.1 Factor- I : High Urbanization

4.2.2 Factor- I I : Te r r i t o r i a l Stress and Housing Condition

4.2.3 Fac tor - I l l : Demographic and Economic Attributes of Urbanization

4.2.4 Factor-1\": Urban Amenities

4.2.5 Strong Variables in Four Factors, 1961

4.3 ECOLOGY OF URBAN CENTERS: CROSS- 218 SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS OF VARIATION, 1974

4.3.1 Factor- I : High Economic Urbanization with High Urban Functions (Urban Amenities)

4.3.2 Factor- I I : Deurbanization

4.3.3 Fac tor - I l l : Demographic deurbanization

4.3.4 Factor-I\': High Te r r i t o r i a l Urbanization

4.3.5 Strong Variables in Four Factor, 1974

4.4 ECOLOGY CP URBAN CENTERS OF BANGLADESH: CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS. 1981.

4 .4 .1 Factor- I : High Urbanization

238

ix

Pages

4.4.2 Factor - I I : Demographic and Economic Urbanization

4.4.3 Fac to r - I l l : Urban Functions

4.4.4 Strong Variables in Three Factors, 1981

4.5 URBAN DYNAMICS: 1961-1981 257

4 .5 .1 Factor- I : Demographic and Infrastructural Dynamics

4.5.2 Fac tor - I I : Urban Deterioration ^vith Demographic and Employment Dynamics

4.5.3 Fac to r - I l l : Deteriorating Urbanization with decl ine of primary sector

4.5.4 Factor- IV: Infrastructural Dynamics in loss urbanized towns.

4.6 FACTORIAL RELATIONSHIPS OF URBAN DYNAMICS 280

4.7 CHANGES IN URBAN STATUS 2 83

4 .7 .1 Grouping of High Urbanization, and Terr i tor ia l Stress and Housing Condition, 1961

4.7.2 High Urbanization, and Demographic and Econonic Status, 1981

4.7.3 Grouping of Demographic and infrastructural dynamics, 1961-1981

4.7.4 Comparative Analysis of 1961, 1981 and 1961-1981

CHAPTER-V: CONCLUSIONS 296

Appraidices 3 0 8

1.1 List of Variables 308 3.1 Calculation technique of median Age. 310 4.1 Correlation ne t r i x , 1961 312 4.2 Correlation metrix, 1974 313 4.3 Correlation matrix, 1981 314 5.1 Strong Variables of Urban Dynamics, 1961, 1974 315

and 1981 5.2 Magnitude cf Var iables (1961-1981) 317

Abbreviations 318

Bibliography 319

Vl l

Page;

LIST OF TABLES

1.1 List of Var iables 19

2.1 Intercensal growih rate of Urban and Rural Population, 5 6 1901-1981.

2.2 Number of towns in d i f ferent classes during 1901-81 6 9

2.3 Percentage distr ibution of urban centers, 1901-81 71

2.4 Nearest Neighbour Analysis (Region w i s e ) , 1951, 1961, 7 3 1974 and 1981.

2.5 Nearest Neighbour Analysis of Urban Centers in d i f f e rent 7 9 s ize classes, 1981

2.6 Proportion of Population l iv ing in various categories 80 of urban centers, 1901-1981

2.7 Bangladesh: Rank-Size Relationship, 1981 8 3

2.8 Urban Population Distribution by Region, 1951-81 91

2.9 Bangladesh: Grovith of Urban population 1951-61, 1961- 96 74, and 1974-81

2.10 Districts by Grov,th rate: 1951-1961, 1961-1974 and 1974- 97 1981

2.11 Urban population as percent of total population 1951, 9 9 1961, 1974 and 1981.

2.12 Density of Urban Population (D is t r i c tw ise ) 1981 104

2.13 Rank fluctuation of Urban centers of Bangladesh, 1901- 107 1981.

2.14 Mean Size of Lrban Centers in d i f f e r en t class orders 110 (1901-1981).

3.1 Urban Growth Character of the selected Urban Centers. 119

3.2 Dynamics o f 'Se l ec ted Urban Centers, 1981. 12 5

3.3 Spatio-Temporal \'ariation of Urban Population Density, 128 1951-81.

3.4 Class-V.ise and Average Population Density-1961, 1974 12 9 and 1981.

v i i i

Pages

3.5 Urban Centers of Di f ferent Population Sizes Grouped 131 According to Density, 1981

3.6 Urban Centers of D i f f e rent Density Group in 1961, 1974 13 3 and 1981

3.7 Mediam Age of Urban Population in selected 40 Urban 13 6 centers, 1961, 1974 and 1981

3 .8 Sex Composition of Selected 40 Urban Centers of 13 8 Bangladesh (Number of females per 1000 males ) .

3 .9 Dependency rat io and s i ze of urban centers 1961, 1974, 141 and 1981

3.10 Average L i te racy rate and s i z e of Urban Centers 1961, 143 1974, and 1981

3.11 Occupational Structure of 40 selected urban centers of 147 Bangladesh, 1961, 1974 and 1981 census years .

3.12 Urban centers on the Basis of Workers Engaged in 15 3 Pr imary Sector by Size Class, 1981.

*

3.13 Urban Centers on the Basis of workers Engaged in 15 4 Secondary Sector by s i ze -c lass , 1981.

3.14 Urban Centers on the Basis of Workers Engaged in 15 6 Te r t i a r y Sector by Size-Class, 1981.

3.15 Mean and Standard Deviation for Seva i Ac t i v i t i e s , 1961 170

3.16 Mean and Standard Deviation for Seven ac t i v i t i e s , 1981 171

3.17 Functional Classi f icat ion of Urban Centers (Ne lson 's 172 Method) , 1961

3.18 Functional Classi f icat ion of Urban Centers (Ne lson 's 17 3 Method) , 1981

4 .1 Ecological Structure of 40 Selected Urban Cai ters ; 1961, 195 1974 and 1981

4.2 Strong Var iab les , 1961 198

4.3 Standard Component Scores of Strong Var iab les , 1961 199

4.4 Strong Var iab les , 1974 219

4.5 Standard Component Scores of Strong Var iab les , 1974 2 20

ix

Pages

4.6 Strong Var iables, 1981 243

4.7 Standard Component Scores of Strong Var iab les , 1981 2 44

4.8 Correlation Matrix, 1961-1981: Urban Dynamics 2 59

4.9 Urban Dynamics Component Loadings, 1961-1981 2 61

4.10 Standard Component Scores of Urban Dyanmics, 1961 - 262 1981.

4.11 Demographic and Infrastructural Dynamics 1961-1981 263

4.12 Urban Deterioration (1961-1981) with Demographic and 271 Employment Variables

4.13 Deterioration Urbanization, 1961-1981 276

4.14 Infrastructural Progress, 1961-1981 279

4.15 Correlation Matrix, 1961-1981 2 82

X

Pages

LIST OF FIGURES

1.1 Location of Bangladesh 12

2.1 Ancient Cit ies 4 3

2.2 Administrat ive Div is ion, 1981 44

2.3 Growth of Population in Bangladesh (Urban and Rural) 5 8

2.4 Relation of Total and Urban Population Growth, 1901- 6 3 19S1

2.5 Distribution Pattern of Urban Centers, 1951 7 5

2.6 Distribution Pattern of Urban Centers, 1961 76

2.7 Distribution Pattern of Urban Centers, 1974 77

2.8 Distribution Pattern of Urban Centers, 1981 7 8

2.9 Rank-size relationship (based on major 13 urban 84 centers ) , 1981

2.10 Urban Interaction Dynamics, 1981 85

2.11 Regional Div is ion: Bangladesh 86

2.12 Distributional Pattern of Urban Population Size, 1951 87

2.13 Distributional Pattern of Urban Population Size , 1961 88



2.16 Growth of Urban Population, 1951-61 93

2.17 Growth of Urban Population 1961-74 94

2.18 Growth of Urban Population 1974-81 9 5

2.19 Percentage of Urban Population in Total Population 1951,100 1961, 1974 and 1981

2.20 Rank Fluctuation of Urban Centers, 1901-1981 103

2.21 Mean Size of Urban Centers in Dif ferent Class Order, 111 1901-81.

XI

Pages

3.1 Selected Urban Centers of Bangladesh, 1981 117

3.2 Urban Growth Status, 1951-1981 121

3.3 Status cf Urban Dynamics, 1981 12 2

3.4 Growth of Urban Centers 1951-1981 12 4

3.5 Occupational Structure of Urban Centers, 1961 15 0

3.6 Occupational Structure of Urban Centers, 1974 151

3.7 Occupational Structure of Urban Centers, 1981 15 2

3.8 Value Distribution of Occupational Structure: A Model 15 9

3.9 Agricultural Centers, 1961 17 6

3.10 Agricultural Centers, 1981 17 6

3.11 Centers of Household Industry, 1961 17 8

3.12 Centers of Household Industry, 1981 17 8

3.13 Manufacturing Centers, 1961 180

3.14 Manufacturing Centers, 1981 180

3.15 Centers of Construction, 1961 181

3.16 Centers of Construction, 1981 181

3.17 Trade and Commerce Centers, 1961 183

3.18 Trade end Commerce Centers, 1981 183

3.19 Transport, Storage and Communication, 1961 184

3.20 Transport, Storage and Communication Centers, 1981 184

3.21 Centers of Other Serv ices , 1961 186

3.22 Centers of Other Serv ices , 1981 186

4.1 High Uroanization (Component-I ) , 1951 204

4.2 Te r r i t o r i a l Stress and Housing Condition (Component- 208 I I ) , 19cl

4.3 Demographic and Economic Attr ibutes of Urbanization 213 (Component- I l l ) , 1961

xii

4.4 Urban Amenities (Component-IV), 1961

4.5 High Economic Urbanization with High Urban Amenit ies (Component-I ) , 1974

4.6 Deurbanization (Component-I I ) , 1974 2 31

4.7 Demographic Deurbanization (Component-I I I ) , 1974 333

4.8 Ter r i to r ia l Stress (Component-IV), 1974 3 36

4.9 High Urbanization (Component-I ) , 1981 2 47

4.10 Demographic and Economic Urbanization (Component- I I ) , 25 2 981

4.11 Urban Functions (Component- I l l ) , 1981 255

4.12 Demographic and Infrastructural Dynamics (Component-I ) , 257 1961-1981

4.13 Urban Deterioration with Demographic and Economic 2 74 Dynamics (Component-I I ) , 1961-81

4.14 Deteriorating Urbanization vvith Decline of Pr imary 27 8 Ac t i v i t y (Component- I l l ) , 1961-81

4.15 Infrastructural Dynamics in Less Urbanizated Towns 281 (Component-IV) , 1961-1981

4.16A Grouping of Urban Centers on Two Leading Components 284 ( F - I S F - I I ) , 1961

4.16B Grouping of Urban Centers Based on Scores on the Two 284 Components ( F - I S F - I I ) . 1961

4.17A Grouping of Urban Centers on Two Leading Components 285 I F - I 8 F - I I ) , 1981

4.17B Grouping of Urban Centers Based on Scores on the Two 2 85 Components ( F - I 6 F - I I } , 1981

4.18A Grouping of Urban Centers on Two Components ( F - I 5 292 r - I V ) , 1961-1981

4.18B Grouping of Urban Centers Based on Scores on Two 292 Components ( F - I 5 F - I V ) , 1961-1981.

X l l l

PHOTOGRAPHS Page

Top: A part ia l viev. of Dhaka C i t y : Commercial Area. 301

Bottom: A part ia l viev, of Dneka C i t y : Residential Area. 301

CfiAPTER - I

INTRODUCTION

Urban centers are dynamic organisms. Centrifugal and

centripetal fo rces are always working and leading to structural

channges. The push factors in rural and pull factors in urban

areas are simultinously interacting and shaping the evolution of

urban centers. P rac t i ca l l y , this evolution invo lves both the

modification of long-establ ished functions and the addition of new-

functions (Co lby , 1933). The rap id increase rate of urban

population and uneven growth of urban f a c i l i t i e s and amenities have

been playing an important ro le in urban dynamics. In the process

of evolution s imple v i l l ages turn into town, town deve lop into

c i t ies and c i t i e s into metropolitan centers, with a complex web

of functions. These transformations are occur in both spatial and

temporal sense and the d i f f e rent ia l urban growth is the norm.

A set of determinants determine this growth and act in a ve rv

complex way, which var ies from place to place, and from time

to time. These determinants of urban system mould the Urban

Dynamics . The formulation of any single assumption is not possible

for explaining the internal mechanism of urban dynamics.

1.1 OPERATIONAL DEFINATION AND CONCEPT :

1.1.1: Demographic and Socio-Economic Correlates

Demographic, social and economic correlates are the

determinants of urban dynamics. These are infact various

demographic and socio-economic va r i ab l e s . Demographic var iab les

are based on age and sex of urban population, f e r t i l i t y , mortal i ty ,

migration, urban population growth rate, urban population density,

urban l i t e racy rate, dependency rat io , e tc . On the other hand,

social va r iab l es are post o f f i c es , government and pr ivate o f f i c es ,

park and playgrounds, schools, co l leges , un ivers i t i es , cinema hal ls ,

e l e c t r i c i t y consumption, water supply , news papers, street l ights,

hospi ta ls , Banks, telephones, te lev is ions , buses, e tc . and economic

va r i ab l e includes - monthly income, annual expenditure, worker

in pr imary , secondary and ter t iary a c t i v i t i e s , e tc .

1.1.2: Urban Dynamics

Urban Dynamics here r e f e r s to the determinants of urban

svstem change (Bhuiyan, 1988). It is a kind of kinetic process

in which growth and development are pronounced features. The

growth and changes are being regulated by demographic, social

and economic corre la tes . _

Bhuiyan, Rejuan Hossain (1988), Demographic corre lates of urban dynamics : A case study of Bangladesh, unpublished M.Ph i l .

Dissertation, AMU, Al igarh, India, pp. 2-7.

1.2: BACKGROUND STUDIES

The modern c i ty i s a lways character ized by both growth

of new functions and change or addict ion of old functions.

There are d i f f e r en t approaches to 'Urban Dynamics' as

is exempl i f i ed by the works of Berry (1961), Forres ter (1969),

Pael ink (1974), Moody (1975), Bannister (1977), Boventer (1978),

Beumer and et a l . (1978), Thakur (1980), Mor i l l (1984), Tkachanko

(1984), Yixing and Qin (1984) , Pumain, Saint and Senders (1984),

and Berg (1987). A l l of these studies have been focused a new

dimension with a spec i f i c f ramework. Some of these are micro leve l

study, but most of a l l are macro l e v e l approaches in 'Urban

Dynamics' study.

There is hardlv any study of urban dynamics in time

se r i es . There are, however large number of conceptual studies

on urban system and the internal mechanism of urban dynamics of

a part icular time. Some pioneer works are those of Ber ry (1965,

1966, 1967, 1968, 1971a, 1971b, 1971c, 1972a, 1972b. 1973), Berry

and Horton (1970), 1974), Bourne (1975, 1982), Chen (1972),

Chisholm (1972), Chisholm and Manners (1971) Curry and Mackinnon

(1974), Domanski (1973), Friedmann (1966, 1972), Hoch (1972),

Hughes (1972), Morrison (1973) , Pahl (1971), Parr (1970), Pederson

(1970), and Von-Bovinter (1973) . And some recent work have been

completed by Barras (1987), Mirucki (1986), Alam (1984) , Kennett

(1980), Simmons (1984), Borchert (1986), Whyte (1985), Juppentatz

(1984), and so on.

For the identi f icat ion of strong corre lates and nature and

magnitude of urban dynamics, f o r fo l lowing macro l eve l discussion

have been incorporated l i ke - the or ig in and evolution of urban

centers and growth of urban population of the world and as wel l

as of developing countries. Genesis, distr ibut ion of urban centers

from 1951 to 1981, rank-s ize and rank-order fluctuation, factors

of urban growth, c lassi f icat ion of urban centers of Bangladesh are

a l l taken to understand the urban dynamics. Final ly, the present

attempt considers 40 sample urban centers f o r identi f ication of strong

corre lates for urban dynamics. The fac tor ia l ecology covers both

demographic and socio-economic dimensions.

In urban research on Bangladesh done so far , only some

cross-sect ional studies on urban population problems l i k e

urbanization, growth of towns, slums and squatters, rural-urban

migration, urban poor, housing problems, e tc . have been undertaken

by the Center for Urban Studies (CUS), Dhaka Universi ty , and some

skeleta l ind iv idual research, i . e . , road congestion, transport

problem, housing problem process of urbanization have been dealt

wi th. But there is no study of comprehensive and longitudinal

urban growth dynamics. Moreover , i t seems that other

demographic, social and economic dimensions of urban growth have

not yet been studied by Bangladesh geographers .

It is not only in Bangladesh or India alone that inter

urban and longitudinal ( three point of t ime) urban dynamics study

has not been conducted in other parts of the world. This has

been neglected and Intra-urban l e v e l or 'Social Area Analysis

(SAA) and fac tor ia l ecology of a part icular town/city has been

studied in West and America. But most factor ia l ecologies have

been confined to one time per iod ( the census da t e ) . A Indian case,

Fakhruddin (1984) has discussed the qual i ty of urban l i f e for the

Lucknow c i ty as a social area analysis in one census tract (1971

census). He studied the factor structure of the temporal changes

in the spat ia l pattern in the intra -urban analys is . Some of the

intra-urban dynamics study have been done by Goheen (1969),

Murdie (1969), and Berry and Murdie (1965) through detail

discussion of the changing c i ty of Toronto in each decade from

1850 to 1900 and in 1950 and 1960, and during the decade 1950

to 1960 r e s p e c t i v e l y . Pedersen ' s (1967) study of Copenhagen is

one of the most comprehensive urban ecolog ical analysis in the

intra-urban dynamics context. Two studies have come out, where

demographic, social and economic corre lates have been used for

inter-urban h ierarchy ident i f icat ion through factor ia l ecology,

though these are cross-sect ional (one t ime) analvs is . Moser and

Scott (1961) have c lass i f i ed 157 Bri t ish towns with population more

than 50,000 in 1951, on the basis of 57 indicators pertaining to

population s i ze and structure, population change, households and

housing, economic character is t ics , social c lass, voting behaviour,

health, education and appl icat ion of social amenities.

On the other hand Ahmad (1965) has c lass i f i ed the

Indian c i t i es through factor ia l eco logy . He has selected 62

var iab les re la ted to the fo l lowing aspects -

1. Demographic (19 v a r i ab l e s )

2. Spatial structure (11 v a r i a b l e s )

3. Occupational structure (23 va r i ab l e s ) ,

4. Households and housing (3 va r i ab l e s ) ,

5. Health and hygiene (4 v a r i a b l e s ) and

6. Social amenities (2 v a r i a b l e s ) .

L ike , Moser and Scott, Ahmad appl ied the Pr incipal

component Analys is (PCA) and el iminated the weakness of Moser ' s

c lass i f icat ion of c i t i es . Related to these two studies, Prabha

(1979) has added another work on 102 Punjab towns with emphasis

on the structural analysis . Her method is multivariate in nature.

She has app l i ed a considerable number of correlates in d i f f e rent

sectoral analvs is , l ike demographic t ypo l ogy , nature of economic

base and occupational structure, industr ia l structure, and urban

functions, and urban h i e ra rchy .

Only Elahi (1987) has contributed a cross-sect ional

(one point of t ime) work on fac tor ia l ecology of Bangladesh for

both rural and urban centers. The study has incorporated 40 and

25 geo-demographic var iab les for rural d i s t r i c ts and urban areas

r e spec t i v e l y . More than 90 percent var iance has been expla ined

in unrotated factor matrix in both rural d istr ic t and urban

areas.

The social area analysis of s ingle c i ty and subsequently

inter-urban structural analysis for the one point of time has been

increasingly undertaken through fac tor ia l ecology during the last

three decades but longitudinal ( three point of time) inter-urban

dynamics studies are few and far between in Bangladesh,

However , the present study is also multivariate in

nature. Although, there is emphasis on d i f f e rent sectoral

determinants of urban dynamics, ident i f i cat ion of strong correlates

on the basis of three point of time rather than one cross-sect ional

census tract has been undertaken.

The study is or ig inal in so far as it invest igates the

nature and trend of urban dynamics in three cross-sect ional point

of time for the inter-urban system.

A common set of correlates have been examined, which

cover al l the sectors of urban dynamics. Attempt has also been

made to f ind out the nature of change of d i f f e rent corre lates and

the quality of urban l i f e in the rap id ly growing urban centers.

For the inter dependency of urban analysis the study

w i l l help of concept of Berry (1964). 'C i t i e s As Systems within

Systems of C i t i e s ' , according to this concept c i t i es can be v iewed

as a inter dependency. But B e r r y ' s concept of rank - s ize rule

does not hold good for Bangladesh towns.

The l e v e l and trend of urbanization of the world and

spec ia l l y , the nature of urbanization in the deve lop ing countries

has also been studied. The transformation of urban indigeneous

c iv i l i za t ion and i ts stage of development has also been discussed

for the background study of urban dynamics.

The author thinks that this t ype of urban dynamics

study is essent ia l f o r g iv ing total picture of urban environment

and for the p rospec t i v e planning of r ap i d l y growing small , medium

and large urban centers as we l l as the primate c i t y .

1.3: SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

Qualitat ive and quantitative processes of change in

urban dynamics are determined by the cumulative e f f ec t of

demographic, soc ia l , economic factors and in fra-structure of the

urban centers. Urban dynamics is the result of changes in national

var iab les (Dendrinos, 1980). These changes may be due to

continous technological progress, f o r example, affecting

d i f f e r en t i a l l y var ious urban areas within a nation due to the specia-

l izat ion in production, changes in the rate and location of

extraction of natural resources, changes in tastes nationwide, or

In other demographic, soc ia l , economic, po l i t i ca l , sc i ent i f i c and

technological factors . The purpose of this study is to exp lore

the contribution of demographic, soc ia l , economic and associated

var iab les in urban dvnamics. The time for the study is 1961 to

1981, a per iod spread ove r two decades ( three census p e r i o d s ) .

An urban settlement Is a dynamic place where inter l inked changes

generated by certain cyc l i ca l process occur in the i r internal

structure. These changes themselves are in a cyc l i ca l pattern and

thus severa l stages can be dist inguished. So, there i s need to

deve lop an integral theoret ica l concept of urban dynamics and to

invest igate the nature of urban systems and also to exp lo r e the

k inet ic forces of urban dynamics.

The primary thrust of the study is to evaluate the

general pattern of urban system change and ident i f y the causes

and consequence of urban dynamics machanism, through severa l

stat ist ica l techniques ( desc r ibed e l s ewhe re ) . The app l i cab i l i t y

of the determinates of urban systems change have been appl ied

to the study of 40 se lected urban centers of Bangladesh. Urban

population growth, functions of urban growth and t e r r i t o r i a l growth

of urban centers of Bangladesh have been studied in de ta i l . Urban

dynamics determinants have been examined through PC A. Strong

va r i ab l es of urban dynamics and i t ' s changing nature and magnitude

has been ident i f i ed through correlat ion matrix and factor loading

of d i f f e rent groups. The spec i f i c ob j ec t i ves of the study are:

i ) to know the origin, evolution and growth of urban

system in developing countries and spec ia l focus

for Bangladesh,

i i ) to search the influence of colonialism on urbani-

zation in the develooing countries.

10

i i i ) to exp lo re the genesis of urban settlements in

Bangladesh,

i v ] to discuss the factors of urban growth,

v ) to evaluate the nature and trends of urban popu-

lation dynamics, and i t ' s impl icat ion,

v i ) to examine the growth of urban settlements of

d i f f e rent s i ze -c lass ,

v i i ) to measure the rank-s ize rule {d is t r ibut ion) and

rank order fluctuation of urban centers,

v i i i ) to i l lustrate the spat io-temporal dimension of urban

population of the selected urban centers,

i x ) to observec^ the demographic character ist ics of

Bangladesh urban centers,

x ) to see the economic functions of urban centers of

Bangladesh through Nelson's method,

x i ) to plot the changing nature of economic ac t i v i t y

through t r i l i anear graph,

x i i ) to analyze the s i te and situation of urban

settlements through phys iography , road, ra i lway

and r i v e r networks,

x i i i ) to examine the nature and magnitude of urban

dvnamics of 40 urban centers with the help of

above ob j ec t i v es ,

x i v ) to ident i f y the strong corre la tes of urban dynamics

through factor loading,

11

XV ) to c l ass i f y urban centers with help of urban dynamics

nature in factor scores .

1.4: STUDY AREA

Urban dynamics d i r e c t l y or ind i rec t l y depends a great

deal upon phys ica l contrasts and terrain d i f ferences , drainage, and

cl imatic character is t ics of the study area. These factors are

inter- l inked with demographic and socio-economic conditions of the

region and accelerate the urban growth and development as a

integrated programme ( Tay l o r , 1951). The factors that have a

bearing on the growth and dynamics of urban centers of Bangladesh

are elaborated below.

1-4.1: Location and Extent

P e o p l e ' s Republic of Bangladesh stretches lat i tudinal lv

between 20° 35'N and 26° 75'N, and longitudinally between 88° 03'E

and 92° 75'E. Bangladesh shares common borders with the Indian

states of West Bengal, Meghalaya, Assam, the Union t e r r i t o r y of

Tripura on the West North and East (3718 km long) and Burma at

the extreme southeast (280 km long ) . The Bay of Bengal in the

south runs for over 717 km. T ibe t (China ) , Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan,

Nagaland and Manipur are close neighbours of Bangladesh.

Moreover , the country l ies between the eastern margin of the Indian

subcontinent and the Western f r igne ofsprawling southeast Asia

( F i g . 1 . 1 ) .

12

LOCATION OF BANGLADESH

CHINA

F i g . 1.1 Rejuan/ 19 91

13

1.4.2: Aea and Population

Bangladesh i s a de l t a i c land wi th an area of 143, 998

Sq .km. I ts pooulation is roughly 100 mi l l ion (BBS, 1981). Out

of 100 mil l ion there are 51.5 mil l ion males and 48.5 mi l l i on females

and annual growth rate is 2.17 per cent. The sex ra t i o is 1060

males per 1300 females. The dens i ty of population i s 695 persons

per square km. for the country as<awhole. In 1981, only 15.54

per cent of the oooulation of Bangladesh was reported to be l i v ing

in urban area (BBS, 1987).

1.4.3 : Physical Setting

The homogenous plain topography of Bangladesh, is

conspicuous oy the absence of c l imat ic extremes, and th is has been

quite conducive to the growth of human sett lements. The urban

sett lements, however , are not growing at a uniform ra te . The

development of road and r a i lway network are enhancing the process

of urban growth . Except ion of f la t topography can be observed

in the North -Eastem (Sy lhe t d i s t r i c t ) and South-Eastern part

(Chittagang h i l l t racts ) of the country and these areas are less

f avourab l e f o r rapid urbanizat ion but building materials are found

in these areas for the construction of bui lding and growing up new

urban se t t l enents .

14

1.4.4: Climate and Soils

The tropic of cancer passes through Bangladesh and

so t ropica l monsoon character ist ics are pronounced. Temperature

var i es between 9.8°C in January to 31.8°C in July and mean annual

var iat ion ranges from 13.9°C to 26.7°C. The summer monsoons are

preceded by pre-monsoon rains in May that often a r r i v e in the

company of v io lent norwesters, and are f requent ly succeeded by

cylonic rainstroms and thunder showers that may go on wel l into

November. Such storms and occasional ti/dal waves cause I

considerable devastat ion. Annual ra infa l l var ies- from 127 cm in

the west to 254 cm in the south - east.

The Geological survey of India compiled a generalized

soil study of the sub-continent of India in 1935 (Wadia, Krishnan and

Mukerjee, 1935). According to this study, on the basis of their

geological o r ig in , Bangladesh so i ls could be d i v i d e d into three

types :

a ) The newer and o lder alluvium areas, including north

Bengali, the eastern plain and the Noakhali-Chittagong

coast,

b ) The de l ta ic area (bounded by the Ganga-Padma-Meghna)

or de l ta ic al luviums. It had three sub-d iv i s ions , fine,

s i l t y c lays to the north, fo l lowed by impure, peatv

depos i ts to the south, and the de l ta ic swamps forming

the sea face, and,

15

c ) The sandy, g r a v e l l y and limV so i l s towards south Sylhet

and the Chittagong Hi l l Tracts . The i r origin was re lated

to' ea r l y Ter t ia ry formations.

In addit ion, the forest area in this region were said

to have damp, mixed so i l s .

1.5: METHODOLOGY (Methods and Materials)

In the present study, var ious methods and techniques

have been app l i ed . For general discussion of d i f f erent indicators,

percentage technique has been taken for the analysis . Rate, rat io

and percentage techniques are used to i d en t i f y the growth/trends

of urban dynamics. . Nelson 's method has been appl ied to study

the functional c lass i f icat ion of urban centers. Principal Component

Analys is (PCA) is used for the ident i f i cat ion of strong var iab les ,

magnitude of change of the indiv idual corre lates . Moreover,

association of var iab les and .parameters factor loading has been

tested through correlat ion matr ix .

1.5.1: Data Base

Related data and l i terature were col lected from various

research papers , Bangladesh Bureau of Stat ist ics (BBS) and

concerned organisations both at home and abroad. In this

connection, the basic data of demographic, soc ia l , economic and

16

others have been col lected through cphrus Report of Pakistan* (1951

and 1961), L is t of Factories in East Bengal (1951), Industrial survey

of East Pakistan (1961), Pakistan census of Agriculture (1960),

D is t r ic ts census Reports, (21 volumes) Census of Bangladesh (1974),

Census of Bangladesh (1981), Stat ist ical Year Book (1961, 1974,

1981), Bangladesh Bureau of Stat ist ics - unpublished data (1981),

Stat ist ical Pocket Book of Bangladesh (1985), and Bangladesh

Pourasheva (Munic ipa l i ty ) Stat ist ics (1974, 1981^. Data related

to the industrial categories of occupation and income have been

co l lected through pretested standarized questionnaire.

However, all the secondary and tertiary data have been

gathered from census of Pakistan, BBS, NILG and various research

organization l i k e . Center for urban studies (CUS), Dhaka Univers i ty

L i b r a r y , Dhaka Univers i ty , Bangladesh and research section.

Department of Geography, Moulana Azad L ib ra ry , AMU, Ratan Tata

L i b ra r y , Delhi Univers i ty , India. Pr imary data through f i e l d

invest igat ion was col lected in 40 urban centers of Bangladesh.

A l l the data have been processed both manually and

by computer. Pr incipal component analysis (PCA) , and various

other s tat is t ica l techniques and methods have been used to

understand the urban dynamics mechanism of Bangladesh. They

are descr ibed in concerned chapters .

* Bangladesh was formerly part of Pakistan.

18

of the country. Ten urban centers have been chosen from each

d i v i s i on , through s t ra t i f i ed random sampling. Care is taken of a

good regional coverage. Similar type of stratra has been app l i ed by

Berry and N'eils (1969). It had been def ined through a mult ivar iate

grouping analvsis of a l l SMSAs using as attr ibutes in the process the

factor scores for each SMSA that were the product of a factor analysis

of an integrated set of demographic, social and economic indicators

of urban environment.

The proper choice of va r iab l es i s v e r y complex and d i f f i cu l t

from the point of v iew of methodology. Regarding select ion of

indicators, emphasis has been la id on the demographic, socia l ,

occupational and other economic va r i ab l e s as a matter of research

theme. Change is the prominent feature of urban dynamics analys is .

Di f ferent va r iab l es are changing the ir nature and magnitude in separate

ways over the period of time, and r e f l e c t the overa l l trend and

direct ion of urban dynamics. While select ing indicators the author

has tr ied to be v e r y cautions and judicious.

The author has t r i ed to select indicators which f a i th fu l l y

r e f l e c t the urban dynamics and urban growth mechanicm.

Keeping the above considerations in mind the fo l lowing sets

of va r iab l es had been selected for urban dynamics study. The detai l

of the var iab l es used in the computer analys is are l isted in Appendix

- 1.1.

19

TABLE 1.1 : LIST OF URBAN DYNAMICS VARIABLES

S.No. Notations Name of va r i ab l e s

I ) Geodemographic :

a. Demographic Corre lates

1. TOTPOPULATION

2. DEGURBANIZAT

3. MEDIANAGE

4. POPGROWTHRAT

5. POPULDENSITY

6. DEPENDERATIO

7. NETMIGRATION

8. SEXRATIO

Total population

Degree of urbanization

Median Age

Population Growth Rate

Population Density

Dependency Ratio

Net Migration

Sex Ratio

b. Geographic Corre lates

9. AREA

10. AREACHANGE

Area

Area Change

n) Social :

a. Social Fac i l i t i e s

11. POSTOFFICE

12. GOVERNOFFICE

Post Of f i ces

Government O f f i c es

20

S.No. Notations Name of var iab les

13. PARKPLAYGROV Parks and Play grounds

14. CINEMAHALL Cinema Hall seats

15. NEWSPAPERCIR News Paper Circulation

16. STREETLIGHT Street Lights

17. HOSPITALBED Hospital beds

18. BANK Banks

19. BUS Buses

20. FPC 8 MCWC P . P . Centerss and M Centers

21. ELECTRICITY E lec t r i c i t y

22. WATER Water

b. Social Amenities

23. TELEVISION Te l ev i s i on

24. TELEPHONE Telephones

c. Transport, Communication, and Housing Envirorment

25. HOUSEHOLDDEN House-hold Density

26. KUTCHA HOUSE Kutcha House

27. PUCCAROAD Pucca Road

28. ROADCONVERGE Road Convergence

29. ROAD DENSITY Road Density

C . W ,

21

S.No. Notations Nane of va r iab l es

d. Educational Corre lates

30. LITERACYRATE

31. SECONDSCHOOL

32. COLLEGE

33. UNIVEREQUINS

L i te racy Rate

Secondary School

Col leges

Univers i ty and equivalent Institutions

I I I ) Economic :

a. Occupational va r i ab l es

34. UNEMPLOYMENT

35. PRIMACTIVITY

36. SECOACTIVITY

37. TERTACTIVITY

Unemployment Rate

Pr imary A c t i v i t y

Secondary A c t i v i t y

Te r t i a ry A c t i v i t y

b. Income and expenditure

38. PERCAPITAINC

39. ANNUALEXPEND

Per Capita Income

Annual Expenditure

22

Due to the l imitation of software techniques on PCA only

39 var iab les have been considered fo r analys is . The l imitation of

programme is that the number of var iab les should not exceed the

number of observat ions (number of unit) in PCA. As a result , some

indicators have been dropped in the present study. S imi lar ly , the

study had to drop certain var iab l es owing to non-ava i l ab i l i t y of data

in the newly c lass i f i ed urban centers. Some of the var iab l es are

excluded because of the ir ubiquitous nature, l i k e pr imary school an

other lower order f a c i l i t i e s and amenities. However , the results of

both the cross-sect ional and change analysis depend to a large extent

on the r e l i ab i l i t y and v a l i d i t y of pr imary and as wel l as secondary

data. But i t is general ly recognized by stat ist ic ians that some errors

in the raw data are inev i tab l e . Indeed, the s e v e r i t y of such errors

var i es across the urban center depending on. a number of

character ist ics such as the nature of the va r i ab l e being measured,

the enumerator, the respondent, and the s ize of sample. Besides,

sampling e r rors and non-sampling e r ro rs are associated with the

analys is .

1.5.4: Technical and Analytical Procedures

For the study of urban dynamics of Bangladesh urban centers

for the period of 1961 to 1981 a set of technical and analytical

procedures have been formulated. As mentioned ea r l i e r , f o r t y urban

centers have been choosen for the study and indiv idual urban center

is an unit of study. For ident i f i cat ion of strong v a r i a b l e s thirtynine

23

indicators have been selected for al l the three census per iods 1961,

1974 and 1981. Simi lar ly , 27 var iab les were sorted out f o r measuring

the magnitude of urban dynamics. Fi f teen socio-economic var iab les

were choosen for urban h i e ra rchy determination. Where appropr iate ,

the census var iab l es were transformed into rate, rat io and percentage

values.

With the above ob j e c t i v e s , in mind a mult ivariate stat ist ical

technique ca l led Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has been appl ied

to reduce the large number of var iab les (both secondary and

p r imarv ) , many of them interre la ted to the few independent underlying

dimensions, into factors/components, which were responsib le for the

var iat ions among the indicators . A f t e r grouping, desc r i p t i v e names

were assigned to each factor based on the var iab les most c lose ly

re lated with that factor. Character ist ics of urban centers are

genera l ly heterogenous in nature. Wider the heterogeneity , the factors

in factor matrix increase in number. Main technique of PCA has been

taken in the l ight of Ahmad's (1965) work.

1.5.5: Method of principal Component Analysis

The Pr incipal Components Analys is (PCA) is most commonly

used in urban study to i d en t i f y the groups of re lated var iab l es ,

which, if they ex i s t , indicate more general patterns than part icular

indices might suggest (Johnston, 1980). The mathematical der ivat ion

employed to determine the underling kinetic dimensions of var iat ion

is known as the pr incipal components analysis (Ahmad, 1965). Urban

24

center is most heterogenous in nature. It incorporates the covariance

of demographic, soc ia l , and economic character is t ics of urban centers

which is a problem of mult ivariate nature. These heterogeneous nature

of inter -re lat ionships can be ident i f i ed by the PCA being a superior

technique of analys is . The heterogeneity of var iab les found within

large urban agglomerations makes for a vast complex of re lat ionships.

So, i t requires s impl i f i cat ion in order to d iscover both the common

and contrasting factors of the d i v e r s i f i e d nature of the urban centers.

The dynamic nature of centers can be measured i f the PCA

which treats the problem of inter dependence of many var iab les is

app l i ed . For the ident i f i cat ion of the total v a r i ab i l i t y also (in this

case, between urban centers) the PCA can be app l i ed . The primary

var iab les can be accounted for by a smaller number of new

independent va r i ab l es , cal led Pr incipal Components. Subsequently,

these underlying factors are used as the basis of c lass i f icat ion of

urban centers.

Berry suggests that a transformation to pr inc ipa l components

scores wi l l e l iminate the redundancies incurred when seve ra l var iables

d i sp lay a s ingle pattern of concomitant var ia t ion. Each pattern of

corre lated va r i ab l es i s replaced by a single component which

represents the pattern, and the point distr ibut ion can be described

approximate ly in terms of a smaller number of uncorrelated component

va r i ab l es . In this situation the multiple regression analysis often

f a i l s to p rov ide c lear and meaningful answers. The coe f f i c ients of

independent va r i ab l es becomes unrel iable in this situation and

25

sometimes carry wrong signs - since these become distorted by the

inclusion of other independent va r iab l es with which these show a

high degree of associations. The PCA, on the other hand, takes the

correlat ion matrix into account, and produces components which are

uncorrelated with one another, and so enable the research worker

to bypass the problem of mul t i - co l l inear i t v .

Factor Analysis ( FA ) stresses shared common patterns but

PCA takes care of a l l patterns - shared and unique. However, both

the techniques result in the col lapsing of a set of intercorrelated

var iab les onto a smaller number of basic dimensions or composite

var iab les (King, 1969).

Al l the tables in chapter iV are the products of principal

components analys is subject to orthogonal rotation according to the

normal \-arimax cr i te r ion . The studv considered the orthogonal

rotated factor matr ix . In PCA, there i s no hard-and-fast rule for

taking up the eigen value of the components. But most frequently it

interprets only those components for which the. .eigen value exceeds

1.0. The just i f icat ion of more than 1.0 eigen values is that the

variance of the original va r i ab l es come into unity. The present study

has considered eigen values of 2.0 or more for the identi f icat ion of

strong var iab les and 1.5 for the measuring the magnitude of urban

dynamics for rotation. The rationals for this is to avo id increase

of comp-'^nent i s factor matrix, where the number of var iab les were

v e r y few with the value of 0.50 or more. Here the factor loading

0.50 or more is considered as a strong va r i ab l e f o r the urban

dynamics ana lys i s .

26

The PCA produces components in descending order of their

importance that is , the f i r s t component expla ins the maximum amount

of var iat ion, and the last component the minimum. It is often found

that the f i r s t two or three components account for a s i zab le amount

of var iat ion - say 80 percent, and the subsequent components

contribute v e r y l i t t l e .

The f i r s t component, which is also known as the pr incipal

coriponent can be used as an index for ranking the observat ions on

the basis of the general character is t i cs of the f i x ed va r i ab l e s .

The computations of this study were carr ied out on Al igarh

Muslim Un i v e r s i t y ' s VAX-11 computing System and the pr incipal

cor.ponents method of factor analys is as a subroutine programme.

The fo l lowing steps of computation were invo lved in ' ' the

principal component analysis .

1) The computational analysis of PCA begins with n x m

order tansformation of original data matrix x . for n observat ions on

each m var iab l es .

2) An n x m data matrix is replaced by a standard score

matrix Z, with standard scores for each of the n observat ions on

the m transformed var i ab l es .

3) The transformation procedures from the Z standard score

matrix to an m x m correlat ion matrix R, which is calculated through

simple corre lat ion co -e f f i c i ents between each var iab le and e v e r y other

va r i ab l e .

27

4) The object of Pr inc ipal component Model (PCM) is to

r e so l v e the correlat ion matri j j R into an m x r factor loading matrix

A, where, m=r was orthogonally rotated according to normal varimax

cr i te r ion to reproduce a new factor matr ix . The rotated factor matrix

makes a minimum poss ib le number of v a r i ab l e loaded high on each

fac tor . In such a way, e v e r y factor became simpler and easier for

interpretat ion in the common group.

5) Multipl ication of standard score matrix n x m order and

orthogonal rotated factor matrix A of m x r order and produced a

new factor score matrix F of n x r o rde r . The factor scores were

then normalized to zero var iance . This p r o v i d e a measure for each

observat ion on the new factors .

With the help of PCA, the study ident i f i ed the strong

va r i ab l e s in the factor matr ix. So, the nature of urban dynamics

can be detected through indiv idual magnitudes of changing character

of factor scores. Factor matrix and comparat ive change can be

detected with the help of First pr inc ipa l component. Thus, the

technique is designed pr imar i l y to synthes ize a large number of

va r i ab l e s into smaller number of compoents, so that they help to

diagnosis the trends and direct ion of demographic, soc ia l , economic

corre la tes of urban dynamics.

28

1.6 : ORGANIZATION .

Urban dynamics is a kinet ic process in which growth and

changes are pronounced features. However , the main interest of this

study is to i d en t i f y the strong va r i ab l e s which a l ter • the urban

system. Urban environments are changing gradual ly with time and

qual i ty of l i f e i s also changing at d i f f e r en t l e v e l s through physio-

socio-economic and demographic characters of urban center. Urban

dynamics nar j r e is also vary ing with the s i ze (both area and

population) of the c i t y .

The whole study has been d i v i d ed into f i v e chapters. The

f i r s t chapter i s an introduction.

Factors re lated to urban growth l i ke - phys ica l , cultural,

demographic, socia l and economic features of the study area have

been e labora:ed in chapter I I . Chapter I I also incorporates the

c lass i f icat ion of urban settlements. Rank-size rule and Rank-order

fluctation also tested in the last section of the chapter, but the

genesis of urban places has been evaluated in terms of physical and

infra-structural elements.

Spatial and temporal dimensions of urban dynamics of

selected 40 urban centers have been discussed in chapter I I I . The

temporal growth of population and area of the towns have been

analysed and functional c lass i f icat ion of 40 towns has been attempted

through Nelson 's method.

29

The theme of the chapter IV is mainly devoted to analysis

the urban dynamics features according to normal varimax cr i ter ion

to reduce a new factor loading matrix of large number of original

va r i ab l es . In th is case Pr inc ipal Components Analysis (PCA) has

been app l i ed for the ident i f icat ion of strong var iab les , grouping of

c i t i es through measuring the dynamic nature of demographic, social ,

and economic va r i ab l e s . However, a l l the sectors of the chapter

IV, deals with the results of PCA and i t ' s interpretation in the l ight

of urban dynamics.

Chapter V is the concluding chapter is a discussion of the

main theme. It conclude, with some suggestions for future.

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31

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38

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CHAPTER I I

EVOLUTION AND CLASSIFICATION OF URBAN SETTLEMENTS IN

BANGLADESH

The present chapter is an attempt to bring out the

salient features of the trends in urbanization and growth pattern

of urban system of Bangladesh. It i s on these trends and on

this partem that present day urban dygf^mics operates . With

these ob j e c t i v e s , an analysis of genesis of urban centers, factors

of urban growth and spat io-temporal trends of urbanization have

been attempted. To ident i f y the growth pattern, the comparative

trends of urban growth, and demographic character is t i cs of the

study area, have been analysed.

Urban centers are the focal points of a l l social,

economic, cultural, administrat ive and other ac t i v i t i e s of

soc ie ty , and p lay a v i ta l ro le in socia l and economic

development of a country. Urban growth is one of the most

important indicator of the development of a nation. Being a

complex socio-economic process c lose ly connected Vvfith the

sc ient i f i c - technolog ica l revolution, urban dynamics influences

all aspects of s o c i e t y ' s l i f e . I t a lso invo l v es demographic,

social and economic processes.

The growth of urban sett lements i s l a rge ly influenced

by the ir locational settings, h is tor ica l evolut ion and the i r socio-

40

economic l inkage within the country. Th is i s an attempt to studv

man's interaction in the geographical environment of the region.

The account of Hiuen Tsaag shows that Bsng^;il|desh has

an old h i s to ry of urbanisation (Majumder, 1924). Pundra (3rd

century B . C . ) , Vanga (4th-5th centuries A D ) , Mahasthan (2nd-

12th centuries A . D ) , Belwa ( 1 0 t h c e n t u r i e s A . D ) , Varendra (5th

and 6th centuries A . D ) , Paharpur (6th century, A . D ) , Bakla (10th

to 11th centuries A . D ) , e tc . were some important towns in ancient

Bangladesh ( F i g . 2 . 1 ) . The area and distr ibut ion can be seen

in map 2.1.

2.1 GENESIS OF URBAN PLACES

In th is section, an attempt has been made to study the

evolution, growth and development of urban centers through

various h is tor ica l per iods in which the demographic, socia l ,

economic, po l i t i ca l and technological conditions were d i f f e r en t .

The evolution and growth of urban centers in Bangladesh is

character ised by three dist inct phases.

a. The f i r s t phase goes back to h i s to r i ca l past when a number

of urban centers f lour ished in Bangladesh as royal towns,

and as re l ig ious and commercial centers. These later

degenerated as result of a number of geographic reasons;

b. The second phase of urbanization in Bangladesh i s

41

character i zed mainly by a colonial background with an

indi'genous rural culture when a number of important towns

emerged.

c. The th i rd phase is the recent phase in which urbanization

took place in an a l ready densely populated area giv ing r i s e

to a v e r y high concentration of urban poDulation, spec i a l l v

in the large urban centers. A town thus r e f l e c t s the complex

socio-cultural background of the var ious stages through which

i t has passed and there fore i t w i l l be worthwhi le to studv

them in the chronological o rde r . They have been arranged

in the fo l lowing three main per iods of h i s t o r y :

Ancient

i . Medieva l

i i . Modern per iods

2.1.1: Urban Centers in Ancient Period (2500 B.C. to 1206 A . D . )

Number of authors have mentioned that a g rea t part o f the

r i v e r ine and wet Bengal delta and the inland low plains were

under forest and marshland through the p re -h i s t o r i c and even

in the h is tor i ca l past (Brown, 1956 and Etahi , 1985). Even as

late as in the Mughal per iod (med ieva l per iod most of the

Gangetic plain was under forest and human occupation was quite

slow to penetrate into such lands. In ancient Bangladesh the

economy was dominated by agr iculture, animal husbandry and

42

trading a c t i v i t i e s . The f i r s t two a c t i v i t i e s were part of the rural

economy but the th i rd found a suitable place in the urban

location. There i s • evidence that major pockets of human

settlements ex i s t ed in the f e r t i l e r i v e r v a l l e y s f i t f o r agr i cu l ture

(E lahi , 1985). There existed many urban settlements and - towns

in ancient Bangladesh ( F i g . 2 .1 ] .

Pundra: in 3rd century B.C. there ex i s t ed a city-Pundravardhan

(Rashid^ 1977) which was d iscovered in Mahasthangarh in Bogra

d is t r i c t and Pancha Nagari in Dinajpur d i s t r i c t of Northern part

of Bangladesh ( F i g . 2 .2 ) in 5th century A .D. Pundra f lourished

at Mahasthan near the d is t r ic t town of Bogra and was a beautiful

and prosoerous town of the Pundravardhonabhukti which included

Varendra roughly ident ica l with North Bengal. The town f lourished

between 5th and 6th centuries A.D. and covered a la rger area

by 12th century (E lah i , 1985). There was a good road linking

Pundra with o ther towns in the west, l i k e - Kajangla in Malda.

Vanga: It was in the Mahaniddesa as an important trade and

commerce center . Vanga was within the Gupta empire in the 4th

and 5th centuries A .D .

Mahastan: I t represents one of the ear l i es t c i t y - s i t e s of

Bangladesh and f lour ished during the 2nd century B.C. to 12th

century A.D. Mahasthan lost i t ' s Importance because of po l i t i ca l

and environmental reasons. It decl ined when the Sena Kings shi f ted

43

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45

the i r capi ta l from Mahasthan to Deopara in Rajshahi and later

to Cauda in Malda. The c i ty also dec l ined and suf fered on account

of f l oods in the r i v e r Karotoya.

Paharpur: Paharpur i s another ancient city which f lour ished in

Rajshahi d i s t r i c t in 6th century A .D.

Bes ides the a foresa id large towns there were many small

towns. Bangarh deve loped 30 Km south of Dinajpur d i s t r i c t . Belwa

was ye t another t o w n D i n a j p u r about 25 Km east of H i l i . Hiuen

Tsang has r e f e r r ed to the town of Bhagauangonj . It was to the

southeast of Dinajpur, and f lour ished as a Buddhist re l i g ious

center. Bakla (Bog la ] was a port town of Chandradvipa . It was

f lour ishing during 1 0 - l l t h century A .D . Gokula was a small town

in Mahasthan near Bogra town. In ear l y 14th century A .D. a

f o r t i f i e d town of the Bana Kings has deve loped in Kotivarsavisaya

of Dinajpur and was ca l led Banagram • Mainamati was a monastery

town in west s ide of Comilla d i s t r i c t and f lour ished during the

1 0 - l l t h centuries A .D.

S im i l a r l y , Sonargaon and Savar in Dhaka d i s t r i c t ,

Vikarampur in Munshigonj d i s t r i c t and Chatigram in Chittagong

d i s t r i c t f lour ished on trade and commerce in the p r e -Br i t i sh

pe r i od .

However , most of the ancient towns declined due to

changes in local phys ica l environment l i k e s h i f t in r i v e r courses.

46

f l oods and oth er natural hazards. Sh i f t i s r i v s r coursBS led to

changes in the transportation l inkages. A l l these factors led

to the dec l ine of many human settlements and towns in the ancient

pe r i od .

2.1.2: Urban Centers in Medieval Period

In the 1526 Babar la id the foundation of a lasting Mughal

Emp i r e . In the recorded h is tory of Bengal, Mugal ru le has been

marked by the sponteneous reoccupation of abandoned lands by

the people moving east wards into Bangladesh. The movement was

easy through in r i v e r s , hence a number of urban centers developed

along them. The growth as we l l as the r e v i v a l of towns were

maximum during the peaceful and tolerant rule of Akbar the Great.

More towns were found by or under him than in the reign of any

other ruler (Prasad, 1939).

Subsequently, at the beginning of the Br i t i sh rule, about

40 to 50 pe r cent of the total area of Bengal (un- d i v i d e d ) was

only set t led and the rest was mainly under f o res t cover and

marshes. The urban centers were v e r y few and far between

(E lah i , 1985). The proport ion of town dwe l l e r s was v e r y small.

Industry, intra-reg ional surface transportation and' communication

were v e r y poor. The exist ing towns were e i the r administrat ive

with some commercial a c t i v i t y and f a c i l i t i e s of r i v e r transport.

They also acted as a s e r v i c e centers of a vast hinterland of raw

47

materials to the Hoogly - Calcutta industr ia l area. This area was

being deve lop by the Br i t i sh by local c ap i t a l i s t i c patronages into

an industr ia l area (Rashid , 1977). The resul t was that the total

number of towns were less than 20 in the end of 19th century.

Most of those were administrat ive and having rural

character is t i cs . The urban population percentage v/as less than

2 (Chowdhury, 1980).

2 .1 .3 : Urbanization in the Modem Period

The modern phase of Bangladesh h i s t o r y begins from the

beginning of 19th century when the area came d i r ec t l y or

ind i r e c t l y under the command of Br i t i sh ru le . The Br i t ish rule

in Bangladesh changed the po l i t i c a l , soc ia l , economic ond

demographic set up of the country. Th i s resulted in changes in

urban centers:

a. the status of ex ist ing towns as co l l ec t ing , export ing or trade

center was extended;

b. they were used for administra ive purooses to suit the

colonial needs, and

c . expansion of urbanization gained momentum with the

establ ishment and expansion of ra i lway network .

Consequently, the towns become the centers of colonial

economy and administration rather than the result of

48

socio-economic development through an internal process of evolution

of the area i t s e l f . Th is stands in sharp contrast to the post

industr ial urban development in the European countries.

The per iod of Br i t i sh rule i s d ist inct in many respects .

Under the Br i t i sh crown, many material and cultural changes took

p lace . There was an ove ra l l development of roads , ra i lways and

r i v e r navigation which maximised the exp lo i ta t ion and col lect ion

of raw mater ia ls and d i s t r ibut i on of f in ished products and coiiniodities.

Development of agriculture and i r r igat ion took p lace. With the

development of agriculture and agrarian raw material base

urban centers deve loped .

Some of the ancient and most of the medieval centers

started developing in terms of population, s i z e and area. During

this per iod , Chittagong, Dhaka and Khulna have deve loped as

trade and administrat ive centers.

Undoubtedly, there occurred a number of po l i t i ca l ,

economic and cultural changes, which act i va ted the centri fugal

and centr ipetal forces responsib le f o r the growth of the towns.

Some of the factors which stimulated the growth of the towns,

were the development of

i . Cantonments

i i . Administrat ive headquarters

i i i . Churches and Chapels

49

i v . Other Publ ic and Cultural Institutions

V. Rai lways and roads

v i . Housing colonies

v i i . Publ ic U t i l i t y Serx'ices

v i i i . Industr ies

The s i tes of Br i t i sh cantonment p layed an important ro l e

in the growth and development of towns. These sites not only

he lped the growth of the Jessore town, but was also responsib le

f o r the or ig in of the new town l ike - Jhinaidah.

Moreover , a considerable areal growth was reg is tered

by the towns when they were e i the r se lected as the d is t r i c t head-

quarters , by the Br i t i sh Government e . g . , Dhaka, Mymensingh,

Sylhet e tc . or as subdivision headquarters, e . g . , Manikganj,

Mushiganj, Narshingdi , Rajbari e t c . A good number of urban

centers grew during the Br i t i sh per iod as a d is t r i c t or

subdiv is ion headquarters .

Among other factors the part p layed by churches,and

chapels v.erc of great importance. The establishment of the Roman

Cathedral Churches and chapels la te r gave b i r th to the clonies

of the Christ ians. The Christian l oca l i t i es of Dhaka, Saidour in

RangDur d i s t r i c t , e tc . occupv qv i te a cons iderable area .

The most important phase of town's growth was that when

thev were g iven the status of corporat ion, municipal board.

50

not i f i ed area and town area, mostly during 1863-1878. In prov id ing

them th is status, conditions were created f o r developing urban

infrastructure and se rv i c es and thus f o r consideration and growth

of urbanizat ion. In the process a la rge number of v i l l ages , came

under towns area such as 17 d i s t r i c t s headquarters , l ike-Dhaka,

Chittagong, Khulna, Sy lhet , Mymensingh, Jessore, Kushtia, Pabna,

Bogra, Rangpur, Dinajpur, Comilla, Bar isa l , Noakhali , Chittagong

Hil l Tracts , Rajshahi and Far idour .

The network of ra i lwavs , and road , revolut ionized the

l i f e of the towns and introduced the urban dynamism in the inflow

and outf low of the t r a f f i c and trade of the towns. The net work

of the ra i lways which spread in late 19th centurv, had

cons iderable impact on the cultural landscapes of some of the

towns, e . g . , Dhaka, Chittagong, Mymenshing, Rajshahi , Natore,

Ishurdi , Kushtia, Jessore, Khulna, Sy lhe t , Ashuganj, Laksham,

Feni, e tc . The ra i lway stations were genera l l y built away from

town centers which induced growth in the outlying areas. It was

near the stations that the ra i lway colonies sprang UD which later-

on became parts of the towns. Such ra i lway colonies developed

near the Kamal^pur area in Dhaka and Paharta l i in Chittagong

and are examples of the urban dynamici caused by Ra i lway .

L ike ra i lway , the roads were no less important in the

areal expansion of the towns. It may be s i gn i f i cant ly noted that

the nodal situation of the towns l i k e that of Rangour, Bogra,

51

Jamalpur, Mymensingh, Pabna, Jessore, Dhaka, Sylhet, Comilla,

Feni and Chittagong created by the radiating roads was the raison

d ' e t re of or ig in as wel l as the growth of the towns.

Introduction of p r i va te buses on the roads had started from

beginning of the Pakistan per iod and i t modif ied the towns'

landscapes b y the establishment of the 'Bus Stat ions ' . These bus

stations generated growth round them. Such was the case in

Saidabad, Gabtol i , Mohakhali and Dhaka where bus stations have

cons iderab ly increased the metropolitan geographical area. Bus

station generated the centrifugal fo rces , which attracted quite

a la rge number of tea s ta l ls , hote ls , restaurants, o f f i c e s and

workshops which in their turn caused further urban growth.

Steamer Ghats (harbour) and A i rpor t s also played a v i ta l ro le

in urban expansion. Naravansanj and Badamtoli in Dhaka, S ira jgonj

in Pabna and Barisal steamer ghat did contribute to urban

expansion. New Zia International A i rpor t of Dhaka is the recent

instance of urban growth dynamism in Bangladesh.

Now-a-days, the vacant spaces of the urban areas have

begun to disappear fast bv the establishment of educational

inst i tut ions, banks, clubs, etc. Schools and co l leges are general ly

located out s ide the congested parts of the towns due to the

a v a i l a b i l i t y of adequate soaces. These educational institutions

have a lways worked as the centr i fugal forces in the areal

expansion as we l l as in f i l l ing the open spaces. The part p layed

52

by the Jahangir Nagar Univers i ty in Savar, Islamic Univers i ty

in Santidanga of Jessore, Agricultural Univers i ty in Mymensingh,

Chittagong Univers i ty and i t ' s a f f i l i a t e d col leges i s quite

s ign i f i cant . In addit ion to these, housing schemes and refugee

colonies have also he lped the increase of the built up areas.

The re fugee colonies have been the character is t i c features of the

big town l i k e - Dhaka, Khulna etc . The housing schemes taken

up by the government and p r i va t e bodies have been quite

s igni f icant in the planned expan,'5ion of the urban areas. Among

Ihe housing schemes mention can be made of the new urban

settlement of western s ide of Mohammadpur and Mirpur, Northern

part of Tongi Municipal Area and eastern s ide of Gulsan of Dh^ka.

In a l l these cases there was an over a l l urbanization and

expansion urban landscape. Bangladesh House Building Finance

Corporation (BHBFC) has been financing the government a.oproved

housing soc ie ty a l l o v e r the country.

Furthar, the increasing public ut i l i t y s e r v i c es , e . g . ,

water supply , sewarege, sanitation and e l e c t r i c i t y , have been

respons ib le f o r the growth of urban centers both in area and

population. The industr ial development has also played a very

s igni f icant ro l e in tho areal spread of urban centers. Ta jgonj

industr ia l area in Dhaka, eastern r e f ine ry in Chittagong,

Khol ishpur industrial zone in Khulna are examples of urban growth

result ing from industrial a c t i v i t y .

53

In general , ea r l i e r growth of urban centers was the

outcome of ' p o l y nuclear expansion' and the la te r growth took

p lace under the process of accret ion. The g rowth of towns, thus,

i s essent ia l ly the result of the dual act ion of the centripetal

and the centr i fugal fo rces . Cit ies or ig inate at the i r most

convenient point of contact with the outer wor ld and grow ilong

the l ines of least resistance. Growth in c i t i e s consists of

movement away from the point of o r ig in in a l l d i rect ions , except

where topography h inders i t , this movement being due both

to aggregation at the edges and pressure from the center (Berry ,

1970). This ho lds good for towns of R^ngiadesh a l co .

2.2 FACTORS OF URBAN DYNAMICS

Urban dynamics of a part icular area e v o l v e s through the

in terp lay of phys i ca l , demographic, social and economic conditions

of the area during a part icular time span.

Phys ica l factors l ike , s i te and situation, location,

environmental condit ions, prov is ions of water bodies and climatic

condition of a places are playing an important ro le in urban

dynamics. Phys ica l factors play an important ro le in the

horizontal expansion, form and structure and shape of urban ^reas.

Demographic factors l i ke - natural increase of population,

net migration, dependency rat io , sex composit ion, age structure,

54

occupational structure, are among the bas ic components of urban

dynamics (NIUA, 1988).

Social factors and economic status, are also importan:

fac tors in the urban dyai^mics, they operate through technolog-.-

a va i l ab l e and through the economic structure of the area . Social

institutions are v e r y mu::h a part of urban dynamics. Moreover ,

socia l conditiDTis -wYiich iTiclutie tra:1ition, customs, re l ig ior i .

segregat ion, po l i t i ca l ideas inf luence Ihe growth and developmen:

of r e l i g ious , cultural .and admin is t ra t i ve towns.

Urban dyanmics i s a lso v e r y much associated with the

s i ze o f towns, the i r adminis t rat ive status, functions, locatior.

in respect of road and r a i l , structure of towns, l e v e l of

urbanization, spacing of towns and agricultural p roduc t i v i t y of

areas of the i r hinterland. Population i s an important component

in urban dyanmics. I d ea l l y , the population of the urban area

grows through immigration in response to a growing economy. This

population has to be housed and p rov ided with other amenities

and th i s means that the phys ica l extent of the town has to expand

" in one direct ion or another - up, down, or from the center

outward" ( P h i l i p and Rees, 1979).

Moreover , the exact pattern of urban dyanmics that

mater ia l i zes in a community i s the result of manv ind iv idua l

dec is ions and factors - a manufacturer dec ides where the plant

55

wi l l be setup, a merchant dec ides what t ype of store can be

stabl ished, a government agency dec ides where to re locate, a

fami ly decides where to rent or buy a house with the better

f a c i l i t i e s . The f ina l decision in a l l such cases depends upon the

al ternat ives a va i l ab l e at any given time (Voorhees , 1970).

In decis ion making, may other factors operate . A family

V i i i examine t ype , s ize and kind of house, f inancial cost,

neighbour - hood amenities, distance of the s tores and educational

institutions, job opportunity , and other s e r v i c e s and f a c i l i t i e s .

2.3 URBAN POPULATION DYNAMICS AND IT 'S IMPLICATIONS:

Many factors influence urban population growth and its

components. Many demographic and socio-economic var iab les are

lo t independent of each other . This requires care fu l examination

of the relat ion between dependent va r iab l es and the explanatory

var iab les on the basis of log ical and empir ica l e v idence .

However, the wave of urban population dynamics neither

occurs at a uniform rate nor it shows the same pattern of

distr ibution throughout the country. I t i s neve r an even process

an i the rate has undergone changes ( p o s i t i v e o r negat ive ) from

time to time with relat ion to socio-economic and demographic,

push and oul l factors .

-Factors of urban population growth ( p o s i t i v e or negat ive ) for the d i f f e rent censuses per iods since 1901 has been discussed by the author in h i s M .Ph i l , dissertat ion pages 63-95.

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Rannants of the ext inct urban centers of Bangladesh speak

of a long h is tory of urban population dynamics. Pundra, Vagna,

Mahasthan, ^4ainamati etc . ( F i g . 2 .1 ) a r e examples of ruined urban

centers of the country and of the demographic changes. But

modern urbanization process has started late in h i s to ry . From

table 2.1 which shows the urban, rural and national growth

var iat ions of population, i t can be noted that urban population as

compared to rural has increased fast during the recent decades.

The urban-rural corre lat ion coe f f i c ient ( r = 0.75) is expressing a

v e r y h igh degree of pos i t i v e corre lat ion, the degree of coef f ic ient

of determination being 56 per cent and it is s tat is t ica l ly

s igni f icant a lso. A comparative growth of urban and rural

population may be seen in the regress ion equation of f igure 2.3

(A and B ) . The fact i s that the high rate of urban populatioin

growth has been achieved mostly by rural-urban migration.

2.3.1: Growth Trends

Table 2.1 shows the intercensi^ l growth rate of urban,

rural and national population from 1901-1981. During the last 80

years (1901-81) the urban population of country has increased from

0.70 mi l l ions to 13.23 mil l ions. The increase rate was 1790 per

cent. The table also shows the total urban population with i ts

decadal variat ion and this r evea l s , notwithstanding some

intercensual f luctuations, that growth has been accelerated tho urban

pcpulaticn. Except in the decade 194J-51 which reg i s t e red a decl ining trend.

58

GROWTH OF POPULAT ION IN BANGLADESH

13

12

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Y E A R S

Fig. 2.3 A Fig. 2."3 B - '

Re juan /^O

59

there has been an ove ra l l increase in the urban population. The

trend of growth can be d i v ided into two p e r i ods .

i . F i rs t hal f of the twentieth century (1901-1951).

i i . Latter hal f of the Twentieth century (1951-1981).

The First half of the Twenthieth Century (1901-1951): At the

beg inn ing o f t h e century a very low p e r c en t of the total

population l i v e d in urban areas which remained stagnant t i l l 1931

but s l i gh t urban growth has been found in 1931-41 decade. Again

1951 census shows the decreasing ra te of urban growth. The census

years 1911, 1921 and 1931 reg i s t e red v e r y low growth of urban

population, i t was 1.39 per cent, 0.85 per cent and 2.00 per cent

r e s p e c t i v e l y , whereas in 1941 a small increase of 3.59 per cent

was r eg i s t e r ed . The sudden f a l l has been found in 1951 census.

The urban growth rate was only 1.68 pe r cent.

For the f i r s t two decades, the country was ent i re ly

agr iculture based on there was no industr ia l a c t i v i t y . There was

meagre development of transportation. A l l th i s prosed to be great

handicap to urban growth. They were no important markets e i the r .

Rural to urban migration was of small magnitude (Zachariah, 1964),

except in case of Dhaka c i t y , which was l a rge enough to attract

s e r v i c e personnel from i ts hinter land. The natural increase of

urban population was also c lose to the ze ro l e v e l as high b i r th

rates were being cancellcd by equal ly high death rates.

60

However, the f a l l in urban population during these two

decades was due to h e a v y to l l of l i f e taken by plague in 1904

(Mishra, 1970), cholera epidemies during 1905-8 (Dav is , 1951)

and malaria in 1908 (Chr i s topher , 1911). Infact the whole of the

Indian subcontinent su f f e red by the natural calamit ies (Ghurye,

1962). Urban population started recover ing a f t e r 1921, There was

a l i t t l e gain of 22.2 pe r cent during 1921-31, and 43.2 per cent

by 1941 census.

Migration p layed a v e r y v i t a l ro le in the phenomenal

growth of urban population during subsequent two decades (1931

and 1941). The towns of the country exer ted greater pul l owing

to the i r access ib i l i t y by both ra i lway and road connection, and

the employment opportunit ies due to opening of some new o f f i c e s

jn the d is t r i c t headquaters further strengthened th is pul l . The

rural-urban migration emerged as a stronger fac tor during 1931-

1941. Small and medium scale industries (Dav i s , 1951), also

re in forced migrations.

Latter half of the Twentieth Century (1951-1981): According to

1961 census, an urban area i s that which includes - municipal i ty ,

c i v i l l ines, cantonment and any continuous co l lect ion of houses

inhabited by not less than 5,000 persons. In addi t ion, they should

meet the fol lowing condit ions:

i . areas having town committees;

61

i i . cocentration of population in a continuous col lect ion of

houses where the community maintains public u t i l i t i es

such as roads, s t ree t l i ght ing , vvaier supp ly , sanitary

arrangements, e t c . ;

i i i . urban centers having population character ized by high

l i t e racy rate .

But in 1981 census, Government of Bangladesh modi f ied

the urban def ination of 1961. The present de f in i t ion of urban area

includes places having municipality (Paurashava ) , a Town

Committee (Shahar committee) or a Cantonment Board. Under normal o

c r i t e r i a , an urban area must have a concentration of population

of at least 5,000 persons in continuous col lecr ion of houses where

the community sense is we l l deve loped and the area i s p rov ided

with publ ic u t i l i t i e s such as, roads, supply of e l e c t r i c i t y , s treet

l i gh t , water supply , sanitary arrangement, e tc . An area which

maintains urban character is t ics but has a population of l ess than

5,000 but has ' thana ( p o l i c e ) head quar te rs ' may also be treated

as an urban area. Moreover , some growth centers l i k e places of

trade and commercial importance, hats/bazars were a lso treated

as urban.

As a consequence of th is new def in i t ion of 1981, the

number of town increased to 492 (Rejuon, 1988). The percentage

of urban population was 5.19 during the decade 1951-1961. The

62

rate of urban growth increased during the per iod 1951-61 and

continued growing t i l l 1961-74.- During 1951 to 1961 there was a

45.11 per cent increase in urban population compared to the

prev ious d e cade ' s 18.41 per cent. Subsequently, the urban

population increase upto 8.78 per cent in 1961-74 with compared

to 5.19 in 1951-61. Urban population was 15.18 per cent during

1974-81. In las t two census per iods urban population increased

due to s l i ght improved health and sani tary codit ions and changing

cultural landscape of the towns by the introduction of water

supply , e l e c t r i f i ca t i on and educational f a c i l i t i e s . On the whole ,

there ex i s t s a pos i t i v e corre lat ionship of high degree between

the l inear regress ion, i . e . least square f i t and the actual growth

trend of urban population and the coe f f i c i en t of correlat ion being

r = + 0.86 ( F i g . 2.3 B ) . Moreover , the re la t ionship in the growth

of urban and total population of the country has been plot ted

on the scatter diagram ( F i g . 2 .4 ) .

The tab le 2.1 also shows the fluctuating character of

urban population in d i f f e r en t census pe r i ods . The growtth rate

fluctuated between a minimum of 0.85 pe r cent per annum in 1911-21

and a maximum 10.97 per cent in 1974-1981 per iod. Urban

population has been r ap id l y growing o v e r the years with the

except ion of the decades 1901-11, 1911-21 and 1941-1951. The

devastating Bengal Famine, Second World War and the part i t ion

of India in the 1940s may expla in the s lower growth of urban

63

R E L A T I O N OF T O T A L AND U R B A N

POPULATION G R O W T H , 1 9 0 1 - 1 9 8 1

c

t/i c o

121

10

8

V 6 Z

c

c o -t-* ro

Q. O CL

0 ' 10 20 30 i+O 50 60 70 80 90 100

Population in Mil l ions ( T o t a l )

F i g . 2 . if R e j u a n / ' 9 0

64

population in the decade 1941-1951. Consequently, there was a

v e r y low urban growth. In addit ion to above factors , the Br i t ish

per iod as such was noted f o r a de l ibe ra te po l i c y of the colonial

government to destroy subpress and even indigenous industries

and to build up massive indust r ia l ' commerc ia l agglomeration around

Calcutta ( I n d i a ) , which v i r tua l l y turned the whole of Bangladesh

into a raw material producing hinter land. The urban population

i s growing consistently at a fas ter rate than the rural population

since 1901. Th is d i spar i t y in growth rates further widened in

1951-61, 1961-74 and 1974-81 censuses. During 1951 to 1961 decade

there was an increase of 45.11 per cent in urban population.

Between 1961-74, the urban population grew at an average annual

rate ( exponent ia l ) of 6.62 per cent, wh i l e rural population grew

by 2.33 per cent. Again, urban growth rate was 10.97 oe r cent

and rural growth rate was 1.91 per cent during 1974-81 pe r i od .

Table 2.1 revea l s that the l e v e l of urban growth in

Bangladesh as measured bv per cent of total population l iv ing

in urban areas increased from 2.43 per cent in 1901 to 15.54 oe r

cent in 1981, a more than s i x fo ld increase . Certain developments

did take place that brought about th is t rend. A s i zeable migration

took place from rural to urban areas during 1951-1961. Bangladesh

urban population increased from 2.64 mil l ion in 1961 to 6.27

mil l ion in 1974 representing a growth of 137.57 per cent as

compared to 45.11 per cent during 1951-1961. An absolute increase

65

of 3.43 mil l ion during 1961-1974 was the second biggest urban

gain f o r any decade since 1901. The proDortion of urban population

in the tota l , however , rose by 3.59 per cent (5.19 per cent in

1961 and 8.78 per cent in 1974) in 1961 to 1974 per iod .

During 1961-1974, there was f a l l in death rate from 29.7

per thousand per annum, whi l e b i r th rate s l i gh t l y increased from

47.0 to 49.9 (BBS, 1986). I t gave a natural increase rate of 3.07

per cent per year , or of near ly 40 per cent during the pe r i od .

Actual growth rate of urban population being 137.57 per cent,

the natural increase was estimated to have contributed near about

one-th irds of the urban growth during 1961-1974.

Rural-urban migration accounting for about two - th i rd of

the urban growth invo l ved 2.42 mil l ion persons. This number was

double of that during the last decade. The increased intensity

of push factors in rural areas combined with the pull exer ted

by urban areas generated these urban ward migrations. Gradual

decreasing s i z e of agr icultural land holding was one of the v i t a l

Factor f o r rural-urban migration. Average s ize of land holdings

became uneconomical a decreased from 0.30 hectares in 1961 to

0.20 hectares in 1974 rendering more of agricultural population

surplus, easpec la l l y among small land holders who constituted

the bulk of peasantry.

66

Annual b i r th rate had decl ined from 49.9 to 34.6 and

death rate from 19.4 to 11.5 per thousand during 1974 to 1981

(BBS, 1986). So the natural growth rate was about 23 per thousand

per annum, or more than 20 per cent during the whole pe r i od .

The actual growth of urban population being 110.57 pe r cent, the

natural increase was deemed to have contributed, more than one-

f i f t h of the urban growth and res t f o u r - f i f t h of total growth rate

came through migration. So the rural - urban migration p layed a

v i t a l role in accelerating the urban growth during 1974-81.

There were some notable fac tors of urban growth during

1961-1974 and 1974 to 1981, spec ia l l y the per iod 1974-81,

emoloyment opportunit ies generated by te r t ia ry and secondary

sectors was an important f ac to r . A bulk of rural-urban migrants

entered the urban informal sectors , and engaged themselves in

pet ty reta i l ing, r ickshaw pul l ing, po r t e r i e s e tc .

Moreover , gradual abol ishing of jajmani system ( Jajmani

system is that the people use to pay paddy or any food grain

to the cobb lers , barbers , e tc . for the i r se rv i ces instead of

currency) is one of the major cause f o r rural to urban migration

during these per iod (1961-1974 and 1974-1981). Under the jajmani

system many v i l l a g e pr i es ts , barbers , carpenters, cobb l e r s , e tc .

were surv iv ing but now they could not be absorbed in the i r

ancestral occupation, and many of them had to move in to urban

areas for employment.

67

Some industr ia l develooment during the 1960s and 1970s,

and the emergence of Bangladesh as an independent country p layed

an important ro le in urban growth. The abrupt and dynamic

changes which fo l l owed the v i o l e n t po l i t i ca l change in 1971 had

the i r impact on urban growth and development. The high rate

of in f lat ion (Bose, 1973) in post l ibera ted Bangladesh, a va i l ab i l i t y

of statutory rationing in the major c i t i e s , deter iorat ing law and

order situation in the rural areas and wage d i spar i t i es between

rural and urban reas (A lamgir , 1974) may have dr i f t ed large

number of people from rural to urban areas (Chowdhury, et a l .

1976).

0

Higher rate of rural education also moved peoo le to towns

for employment. The v i l l a g e soc ie ty wanted i t s educated young

man to manage a respectab le job in the urban areas.

In the second and third f i v e y ea r plans industr ial izat ion

rece i ved a great f i l l i p . Agrobased industr ies with the he lp of

foreign investment and indigenous raw material technology

deve loned throuohout the country. Some of the new industr ies

were establ ished in d i f f e r en t urban areas.

Expansion of adminis t rat ive machinery also created new

employment opportunity in newly designated d i s t r i c t and upazi l la

headquaters al l through the cotmtry and thus speeded up

nrbanizatinn.

68

Af ter the new def ination of urban areas, 384 new urban

centers of f o u r - f i f t h of total ' urban centers were r eg i s t e r ed a l l

o v e r the country in 1981 census. Present ly there are 492 urban

centers. So, the spurt in urban growth during last two census

were a cumulative product of rural-urban migration, natural

increase, emergence of new towns through modi f ied de f in i t ion of

towns and extension of the t e r r i t o r i a l I'uridiction of many existing

tov/ns of the country. The area of urban settlements had notably

increased from 1807 sq . km in 1974 to 5234 s q . k m . in 1981

':ensus.

2.4 GROWTH OF URBAN SETTLEMENTS IN niFFERENT SIZE-CLASS

(1901-1981):

On the basis of 1981 census, 492 urban centers have been

i d en t i f i ed . The largest urban center is Dhaka Statist ical

Metroool i t ian Area (SMA) with a total pnoulatinn of 3,440,0nn,

wh i l e the smallest urban center i s Barkal Thana Headquarter with

only 76fi persons in 1981 . These extreme examples conceal the

real oictMre. Thus to v i sua l i z e the true picture, urban centers

have beai grouped into a number of c lasses according to their

s i z e . The distributional pattern of these towns va r i e s from random

to uniform.

2.4.1: Size and Distribution of Urban Centers

According to s i z e , the towns have been c l a s s i f i e d into

s i x c lasses. Which have been adoptted by the census commission

69

of Bangladesh. The fo l lowing table 2.2 shows the number of urban

centers in d i f f e rent c lasses in the var ious census years since 1901.

Table 2 .2 : Number of Towns in Different Classes During 1901-1981

Classes of Towns

1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1974 1981

Class I 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 6 13

Class I I - - - - 2 2 5 14 23

Class I I I - - 5 7 13 14 16 23 45

Class IV 21 23 20 21 20 20 23 49 114

Class V 15 13 13 17 19 18 20 12 129

Class VI 10 10 10 11 3 7 10 4 168

A l l Classes 48 48 90 58 59 63 78 108 492

Source: BBS (1987), Report on Urban Area: Bangladesh Population Census 1981, GOB, p. 15.

It emerges from the table that urban centers in Bangladesh

are d istr ibutted asymmetr ica l ly under d i f f e r en t s i ze c lasses , and

the urban centers began to f lour ish at a fas te r rate from 1961.

Number of urban centers remained almost stat ic during the per iod

1901 to 1951 when only 15 new centers were deve l oped . The

increase rate was 31 p e r cent. But the number of urban centers

began to increase s i gn i f i cant ly from 1961. There number increased

from 78 in 1961 to 108 in 1974 and 492 in 1981.

70

In 1901 there was only two c lass I towns, namely-Dhaka

and Chittagong. Th is number remained s ta t ic upto 1951. But in

the fo l lowing decades, i t rose to four when Khulna and Rajshahi

improved the i r status. In 1974, the number of class I towns

rose upto 6 and in 1981, i t rose to 13 ' the last addit ions being

that of Mymensingh, Comilla, Bar isa l , Sy lhe t , Rangpur, Jessore,

Saidpur, Pabna and S i ra jganj .

When compared to l a rge urban centers , i t i s found that

small and medium towns are more in number. Wide variat ions have

occured in the number of towns in c lass IV, V and VI towns.

Recent change of de f in i t ion of urban centers has added a la rge

number of centers in V and VI order of urban centers.

Percentage variat ion during d i f f e r en t decades (census)

may be noted from the table 2 .3 . Percentage increase of urban

centers in 1981 was 925 over 1901. It also emerges from the table

that 83.4 per cent of the urban centers had population below

25,000 and 60.2 per cent below 10,000 in 1981. Percentage of small

s ized urban centers became high as a result of inclusion of Thana/

Upazila headquarters in urban category .

However , the re lat ionship between s i z e and number of

towns runs para l l e l to the idea suggested by Chr is ta l l e r in

southern Germany, ye t there i s a s igni f icant deviat ion from i t ' s

uniform spacing with hexagonal s e r v i c e areas among the centers

(Chr i s t a l l e r , 1933).

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The nearest-neighbour analys is was outlined by Clark and

Evans (1954) and by King (1961) has been employed to examine

the pattern of urban centers in Bangladesh. I t i s based on the

measurement of actual straight l ine distance separating a point

and i t s nearest neighbour point, and comparison of these distances

w i t h that which might be expected of the points distributed in

a random manner within the same area. Comparison can be

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A R

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a random dis t r ibut ion, D by apply ing the formula D = 0 . 5 ran t t" j' & ran yA/N

Where, N = number of urban centers

A = area of Bangladesh (143,998 sq . km . )

The values of R^ ranges from zero (where al l the points

are c lustered together at one p l aces ) to 2.15 (where the points

are as f a r away as poss ib le from each other and, form a regular

hexagonal d i s t r ibu t i on ) . When R^ has a value of one, the

d is tr ibut ion of points is random in nature. Region wise result of

the R s tat is t ics i s shown in Tab l e 2 .4 and pattern of urban n

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centers of 1951, 1961, 1974 and 1981 can be observed in f igures

2.5, 2.6, 2.7 and 2.8 r e spec t i v e l y . Class wise nearest neighbour

pattern is presented in table 2.5.

In Bangladesh, urban centers of d i f f e rent classes have

a random pattern ( t ab l e 2 . 5 ) . The i r R^ values l i e v e r y c loser

to one. So the distr ibutional pattern of urban centers i s random" .

Moreover , their spatial pattern on the map also shows the random

pattern with re ference to roads and ra i lways . An overwhelming

major i ty of the c i t i e s are scattered, based on connect iv i ty ,

throughout the country. So the analysis shows a d irect

relat ionship between urban dynamics and connect iv i ty .

2.4.2: Size and Proportion of Population in Different Classes

The l e v e l of urban growth can be determined by the

distr ibution of urban population at d i f f e rent points of t ime by

s ize classes of urban centers. It appears from the table 2.6 that

in most of the censuses a larger proportion of population were

found in the larger urban centers having population 100,000 and

above . This proportion has been growing at a faster rate from

1961. In 1961 about 46 per cent of the urban population was

reported in th is s ize c lass and the proport ion reached 73.3 per

cent in 1981 for the 77 pourashava (munic ipa l i ty ) . This

- D e t a i l e d technique of nearest neighbour stat is t ics and analysis can be found in M.Ph i l dissertation of the author.

75

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76

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D I S T R I B U T I O N PATTERN OF URBAN CENTERS I A..

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DISTRIBUTION PATTERN OF URBAN C E N T E R S

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percentage obtained be fo re the appl icat ion of extended de f in i t i on

of urban centers, but the proport ion decreased to only 28.7 a f t e r

the appl icat ion of the new de f in i t i on .

A decreasing trend in the proport ion of population i s seen

in urban centers having population less than 10,000. The

proport ion fo r the s i ze c lass decreased from 18.7 in 1901 to l ess

than 1 per cent in 1981. The f i gure comes to 6.7 i f the new

def in i t ion of urban areas i s app l i ed . A decreasing rate in the

p ropo r t i on of population i s also observed in the categor ies of

urban areas having population of 5,000-25,000. The proport ion

has decl ined from 62 per cent in 1901 to 3.6 per cent in 1981.

In case of new def in i t ion the percentage comes to 20.3. In s i z e

class 50,000 to 99,999 the proport ion, on the other hand, has

increased from 7.43 per cent in 1941 to 13.1 per cent in 1981.

A f t e r the new de f in i t ion, the f igure has decreased to 11.9 per

cent.

It is , there fo re , qui te apparent that the large c i t i e s are

dominating the ove ra l l growth of urban population in Bangladesh,

Dhaka Stat ist ical Metropol itan Area (SMA) alone has accounted fo r

26 per cent of total urban population. A s imi lar pattern of

dominance of the big c i t i es in urban growth i s a lso not iced in

India and Pakistan (Bose, 1978; Helbock, 1975).

The dominance of Dhaka SMA o v e r al l the other urban

centers i s wel l es tab l i shed . It has much greater population than

82

normally expected , exceeding 19 lakh in 1974 and 35 lakh in 1981

census. Over the decade , s eve ra l extra function such as big a i r

port , educational inst i tut ions, d i f f e rent types of .new industr ies

have been added to the c i t y . Fourty per cent of the major

industr ies , have been set-up in the publ ic sector in Dhaka SMA.

It i s found that there i s a c lose l ink between concentration of

industries and urban growth of an area. However , the rank-s i ze

rule i s v e r y poor l y f i t t ed in the case of Bangladesh ( F i g . 2.9

and table 2.7) " ' .

2.5: SPATIAL INTERACTION AND URBAN POPULATION GROWTH BY

REGION

Spatial interact ion p rov ides rec iproca l re lat ions between

f.vo places (Rejuan, 1988). There i s greatest attraction between

Dhaka and Khulna, and next between Dhaka and Chittagong. The

least attraction is between Dhaka and Saidpur and th is i s due

* to the greatest distance ( F i g . 2.10) .

However, spat ia l d is tr ibut ion and urban population growth

are dependent on phys i ca l , cultural, demographic and

socio-economic cor re la tes of the part icular reg ion. In addit ion

to these factors the dominance of the primate c i t y , exp la ins the

Note: Detail appl icat ion of the rank-size rule and spatial interaction have been discussed in the author ' s unpublished dissertat ion, t i t l ed , "Demographic Corre lates of Urban Dynamics: A Case Study in Bangladesh, pp. 148-52, 96-99.

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URBAN INTERACTION DYNAMICS 1988

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86

BANGLADESH

REGIONAL DIVISION Northern Region

C e n t r a l Region

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Southern Region

J ^ h i t t a g o n g - ^

F i g . 2 . 1 1 R e j u a n / ' 8 8

87

Fig . 2. 12

88

W B A N G L A D E S H

DISTRIBUTIONAL PATTERN OF URBAN POPULATION SIZE

1961

U.OO^OOO Populat ion 3,00,000

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F i g . 2.\k Rejuan/ '88

90

iTT B A N G L A D E S H

DISTRIBUTIONAL PATTERN OF URBAN POPULATION SIZE

1961

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Nor thern Reg ion

Central Region

Ea s te rn Reg ion

Southern Region

ag's 9|0' 9.1

F i g . 2.15

91

size of i t s population which i s severa l times larger than that

of the next c i t y (Rejuan, 1988). Metropolitan Dhaka has about

4 mi l l ion people , more than twice as many as in Chittagong and

more than four times as many as in Khulna.

2.5.1: Urban Population Growth by Region

Bangladesh has been d i v i d ed into four major regions ( F i g .

2 .11 ) . Region-wise population distr ibut ion of last 4 decades has

been presented in Tab le 2.8. Figures 2.12, 2.13, 2.14 and 2.15

Table 2.8: Urban Population Distribution by Region, 1951-1981

Region 1951 1961 1974 1981

Eastern 4,95,110 6,40,000 14,05,000 34,87,000

(27 .2 ) (24 .2 ) (22 .4 ) (25 .8 )

Central 6,50,779 10,73,000 29,00,000 53,84,000

(35 .8 ) (40 .6 ) (46 .2 ) (39 .8 )

Southern 2,79,337 4,30,000 10,49,000 24,68,000

(15 .3 ) (15.3 ) (16 .3 ) (18 .2 )

Northern 3,94,547 4,98,000 9,20,000 21,98,000

(21 .7 ) (18 .8 ) (14 .7 ) (16 .2 )

Total 18,19,773 26,41,000 62,74,000 1,35,36,000

(100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)

Source: BBS, Census repor ts , 1951, 1961, 1974 and 1981.

92

f o r the censuses yea r of 1951, 1961, 1974 and 1981 r e spe c t i v e l y ,

shov/ the regional pattern of urban population s i z e . It i s observed

that the urban population of Bangladesh during 1951-1981 increased

by 643 per cent. The rate of increase in the d i s t r i c t s o v e r the

per iod ranges from 271 per cent in Dinajpur to 1892 in Noakhal i .

Noakhaii is f o l l owed by Potuakhaij (1505 pe r cent ) , Khulna (1312

per cent ) , Jessore (1078 per cent ) , Dhaka (848 per cent ) , Tangail

(765 per cent ) , Kushtia (697 per cent ) , Chittagong H i l l Tracts

( 1978 per cent) and so on. Urban population of Chittagong and

Khulna d iv i s ions increased more than that of Rajshahi and Dhaka

di\"ision. This i s due mainly to the inclusion of Thana

headquarters which were not prev ious ly recognised as an urban

center.

Table 2.9 shows the growth of urban pop ulation in

last three decades. Figures 2.16, 2.17 and 2.18 indicate the

d i s t r i c t wise urban population increase in d i f f e r en t ca tegor ies .

The regional pattern of growth shows that during 1951-1961 onlv

in tv, 0 (9 .5 per cen t ) , d i s t r i c t s ' the growth rates were between

10?-199 per cent; d i s t r i c t s were ent i re ly rural in character is t i cs ,

i . e . , Bandarban and Chittagong H i l l Tracts . On the o ther hand

two d i s t r i c t s had decreased the i r growth rate ( Tab l e 2 .11 ) .

Table (2 .10 ) shows that growth rate var i es

considerably from 300 per cent and above to less than 25. In some

93

f\ 89'E 90*

^ V B A N G L A D E S H

W

g r o w t h of u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n w. 1951-1961

- S

'v.,

0 20 ifO 60 I . I .

KM.

26N-

r - 3

T

v..

-2k' r INDIA ^•(Tripura) ^ ^

h22'

I N DIA (West Bengal)

- 2 2 ' N

R

3 0 0 and above "/o 2 0 0 - 299 1 0 0 - 199

5 0 - 99 — 25 - i+9 less than 25 D e c r e a s e Entifely Rural 9 p E

-•-National Average 51.5

F i g . 2 . 1 6 Rejuan/ '88

94

F i g . 2 . 1 7 Rejuan/ '88

90 B A N G L A D E S H 9 2 E

GROWTH OF URBAN POPULATION 197if-1981

h23

I NDIA (West B e n g a l ) ^

-22'N

0 20 kO 60 1 = 1

26 N-

300 a n d above 200 - 2 9 9

^ 1 0 0 - 1 9 9 50 - 99 25 - k9 Less t h a n 25 D e c r e a s e

N a t i o n a l A v e r a g e 183

R E n t i r e l y R u r a l 9 0 E 9.1

F I g . 2 . 1 8 R e j u a n / '88

96

I'lihlii /A): MiiiiHliHloMh: Hrowlli cif llrlxiii l>o|)uliiUiiii 1lir>1-1!l(i1 , 1l)(n-1!)74, mill 1!l74-1lini

{Dotn by Ointrlcl)

Ui vlBlon/ 1U51-1UG1 1'J51-1974 1974-190]

incrcnsod in incrooBocl In incrooBOd in

Number Percent Number Percent Number percent

Bangladesh 8,20,953 45.1 3,633,000 138 7261,000 116

Chittagong Div is ion 1,44,414 16.1 765,000 120 2082,000 149

Bandarban R R R R 24,000 184 C t g .H i l l T rac t R R 15,000 68 141,000 374 Chittagong 76,778 25.6 533,000 143 856,000 95 Coniilla 22,353 19.2 108,000 77 339,000 137 NoaKhnIi 12,050 511.0 35,000 103 301,000 529 SylUct 9,029 I G . l G1,000 BG 361,000 274

Dhnkn Dlvlnloii 4,22,007 04.1) 1 ,82 7 ,000 170 2483,000 85

Dhaka 2,20,784 65.7 1,496,000 199 1650,000 73 h'nrldpur 20,931 30.3 39,000 51 291,000 249 Jnmnlpur 10,698 30.1 33,000 52 127,000 132 Myrncnsingh 39,777 34.9 174,000 113 339,000 105 •I'nngnil 2,175 10.1 85,000 300 70,000 70

Klmlnn iJlvlsion 1 ,51 ,079 54.1 019,000 144 1475,000 161

UnriKdl - 10,291 -15.(1 47,000 44 411,000 207 Jcssore 37,098 101.3 100,000 140 260,000 143 Khulna 1,03,461 150.0 347,000 202 454,000 88 K\iRhtin 22,730 50.1 94,000 147 166,000 106 I'liUmkhiill 13.2 2'•.,000 204 12f>,0TO

Rajshahi Div is ion 1,03,453 26.2 422,000 G5 12 76,000 139

Bogra 10,551 +29.0 30,000 70 120,000 145 Dinajpur - 4,592 - 6.0 41,000 58 171,000 251 Pabna 30,041 43,2 115,000 116 185,000 188 Rajshahi 35,034 42.1 127,000 105 325,000 132 Rangpur 31,819 24.9 103,000 65 473,000 181

Sourcc: BBS, Census , 1951, 1961, 1974 and 1981 national volume and urban ccnsus 1987, Government ol Bangladesh, Dhaka.

Rural character

97

Table 2.10: Districts by Growth Rate: 1951-1961, 1961-1974 and 1974-1981.

1951-1961 1961-1974 1974-1981 Growth rate ( in percen-tage)

Number of Dist-r i c t s

Percen-tage in total D is t r ic ts


Percen-tage in total D is t r i c ts


Percen-in total Districts

300 and above - - 1 4.8 3 14.3

200-299 - - 2 9.5 4 19.1

100-199 2 9.5 8 38.1 10 47.6

50-99 3 14.3 8 38.1 4 19.1

25-49 8 38.1 1 4.8 - -

Less than 25 4 19.1 - - - -

Decrease 2 9.5 - - - -

Entirely rural 2 9.5 1 - - -

Total 2 100.0 21 100.0 21 100.0

Source: Rejuan (1988) Demographic correlates of urban dynamics: A case study in Bangladesh,Unpublished dissertat ion of M . P h i l . , p . 88.

d i s t r i c t s there has been decrease in urban population and some d is t r ic ts

are purely rural . In 1961-74 there was only one d i s t r i c t with over 300

per cent growth but in 1981 there were three such d i s t r i c t s . High urban

growth rate (100 to 300 pe r cent and above ) was found in only 9.5 per

cent d i s t r i c t s in 1951-61 but in 1961-74 the number of such d i s t r i c t s u as

ove r 52 per cent and in 1974-81, i t was S I per cent .

98

The regional pattern of urban growth also exh ib i t -

considerable var iat ions. Among the four regions the central

region has the Highest percentage of urban population. In 1951,

central region acccounted for 35.9 per cent urban population

which rose 46.2 per cent in 1974, but the proportion s l i ght ly

decreased in 1981 and came down to 40 per cent. Eastern region

of ranks second in the country. It has twenty seven per cent

urban population in 1951 but i t decreased in 1961-1974 and

s ight ly increased in 1981 (25.8 per cent ) . Southern and Northern

regions were least developed among the four regions of

Bangladesh.

Spatial variat ions in the degree of urban population

growth is measured by percentage of urban population in the

total in each d i s t r i c t . Table 2.11 and Figure 2.19 reveals

interesting facts . In 1951, only 4.34 per cent of population

was urban and two d i s t r i c t s were without any urban population.

In 12 d i s t r i c t s the urban population was less than the national

average, and only 7 d i s t r i c t s had a percentage more than the

national average . Chittagong d is t r i c t had the highest percentage

of urban population i . e . 11.78 per cent. Lowest was in Noakhali

d is t r i c t , 1.04 per cent.

In 196". the urban population increased from 1.82

million t(j 2.64 mill ion, attaining a growth rate of 45.1 per cent.

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101

Bandarban d i s t r i c t was s t i l l l a rge l y rural in character. National

average of urban population was 5.20 per cent. Kushtia, Khulna,

Chittagong and Dhaka d is t r i c ts were above national average Vifith

.7 .07 , 12.51 whi le other 16 d i s t r i c t s were below the national

ave rage .

In 1974, the national average urban population vjas

8.78 per cent. Only 5 d is t r i c ts were above the national average .

They were Bandarban (11 per cen t ) , Chittagong Hil l Tracts (10

per cent ) , Chittagong (21 per cent ) , Dhaka (30 per cent) and

Khulna (15 per cent ) ; but a l l other 16 d i s t r i c t s were below

the national average (Table 2 .11 ) .

In 1981, the national average was approximate ly 15

per cent. Again as 1974, the same f i v e d i s t r i c t s were above

national average . The highest percentage was Dhaka about 39

per cent of total population, f o l l owed by Chittagong (32 per

cent ) , Chittagong Hi l l Tracts (30 per cent ) , Khulna (22 per

cent ) , and Bandarban (21 per cen t ) .

2 .5 .2 : Densit ies of Urban Population

The density of urban population, about in Bangladesh

in 1981 was 2060 persons per s q . km. Density in Dhaka SMA

was v e r y hiqh, being 6047 persons per sq . km. fo l lowed by

Khulna, Comilla, and Pabna with 2798, 2733 and 2168

r e s p e c t i v e l y . Lowest density has been found in Bandarban

102

d i s t r i c t , where it was only 116 persons per sq . km. In the

other 17 d i s t r i c t the densi ty was l ess than national average

( Tab l e 2 . 12 ) .

2.6 FLUCTUATIONS IN THE RANK OF URBAN CENTERS

Rank fluctuation depends upon the vary ing growth of

population which in turn is largel\- the result of rural-urban

migration. Push factor of rural areas and pull factor of urban

areas, both are v e r y much inter l inked with urban dynamics.

But the centri fugal f o rce is the main cause for rural-urban

migration in developing countries. Demographic and

socio-economic backwordness of the rural Bangladesh are the

main fac tors as a result of which rural people are pushed out

from the i r v i l l a g e s . Among the urban in migrant more than 80

per cent are from rural areas .

The i l lustrat ion (F igure 2.20) c l ea r l y indicates that

two urban centers, namely, Dhaka and Chittagong, maintained

the i r f i r s t and second rank r e spec t i v e l y throughout the period

1901-81. S i ra jgon j , the 3rd ranking urban center, could maintain

i ts o rde r in the rank only upto 1911; in the year 1921 i t was

ranking 5th and f e l l down into 10th posit ion in 1951, and to

12th rank in 1981. The present 3rd ranking c i t y Khulna was

on the 22nd step of ranking in 19C1. It secured 3rd position

in 1961 and continued to maintain i t . The 4th rank c i ty was

Rajshahi . It f e l l down to 8th rank in 1921 but gradual ly gained

103

FIG. 2.20-- RANK f l u c t u a t i o n OF URBAN CENTERS , 1901 - 1981

36 Banyachang

J7 Shrrpur

3B PaluaKha.i

21 31 C E N S U S

51 61 71+ 1981 Y E A R S

o a> ^ c nj

0/ IX

Table 2.12: Density of Urban Population (District Wise)^ 1091

104

1981-

SI. No.

Name of the Distr icts

Area of the d i s t r i c t s ( in s q . km . )

Total urband population

Density of urban population

1. Bandarban 317.98 363953 116

2. Ctg. H.T . 745.95 1,76,683 237

3. Chittagong 920.60 18,62,000 2022

4. Comllla 204.69 5,59,483 2,733

5. Noakhali 242.10 • 4,11,656 1,700

6. Sylhet 270.50 4,94,433 1,8288

7 . Dhaka 573.80 38,56,896 6,047

8. Farldpur 261.20 3,30,387 1,265

9. Jamalpur 115.40 2,14,491 1,859

10. Mymensingh 374.50 6,59,212 1,760

11. Tangail 114.10 1,84,781 1,620

12. Barisal 307.60 5,58,363 1,815

13. Jessore 281.50 4,34,949 1,548

14. Khulna 346.70 9,70,200 2,798

15. Kushtia 283.10 3,33,384 1,178

16. Patuakhali 132.80 1,65,524 1,247

17. Bogra 100.40 2,02,919 2,021

18. Dinajpur 201.40 2,73,784 1,359

19. Pabna 148.00 3,98,822 2,168

20. Rajshahi 297.90 5,45,070 1,830

21. Rangpur 410.80 7,09,797 1,728

BANGLADESH 6,446.18 1,32,79,897 2,060

Source : BBS, Census report, 1981

*Area wise data are not ava i l ab l e of 1951, 1961 and 1974 urban centers.

105

i t ' s previous position in 1974 and continues to occupy it t i l l

today.

The rank of two c i t i e s , namely Khulna and Jessore is

worth noting. Both are ascending the rank o rde r . Khulna acquired

3rd posit io in from 22nd and Jessore obtained 8th rank from 28th

posit ion in 1901. On the other hand, there has been a surprising

degree of turbulence among the smaller centers - espec ia l l y those

with populations of less than 50,000. Centers have been promoted

or demoted in rank by v e r y s igni f icant margins whi le a quite

substantial number of towns have fa l len out al together (dropping

below the qual i fy ing populations of 5,000 or more ) ; manny others,

of course have taken their p lace .

However, in ind iv idual cases, a v e r y high fluctuation in

the rank order i s observed in the case of Nawabganj; it was

ranking 11th in the year 1901, but in next census year it v. as

ranking 5 th, immediately in the next census year it was

shi f ted to 23rd rank. Again it c l imbed to 20th position in 1931

and to 16th position in 1981.

Small towns ( l ess than 25,000 inhabitants) in the studv

area indicate a frequent fluctuations in the i r rank with generally

a declining tendency. Town l i ke Sherpur which was ranking 19th

in 1901 was placed in 37th rank in 1981. Other towns in this

106

category were Kotchandpur, Natore, Noakhal i , Meherpur, Debhata,

Muktagacha, Satkhira, Ba j i tpur , e tc . (F igure 2 . 20 ) .

Some of the new towns which have energed on the scene

recenti\' have secured a v e r y high rank in a short span of time.

The town (Jhuadanga in 1974 was ranking 27th but ascended to

20th rank by 1981. The toun Naogaon which was ranking 37th

in 1941 gradually secured 33rd rank in 1981.

The town Khulna, an industr ial as we l l as a port town,

has rap id ly attained the higher rank a f t e r immerse of 'Chains

Sea Por t ' in Khulna d i s t r i c t in 1951. In 1901 i t was on 22nd

rank but reached 3rd rank by 1961 and is maintaining i t t i l l

date .

The rank-s ize fluctuation indicates that nine urban

centers. namely - Dhaka, Chittagong, Ra jsheh i , Potuakhali,

Ishurdi, Companiganj, Chowmohani, Palash, Rupganj and

Banyachang, are v e r y s tab le and have maintained the i r or ig inal

rank from the per iod of c lass i f icat ion of towns. There were

however a few occassions of fluctuations in the i r ranks in the

transitional per iod , but in the f inal year (1981) , they have

secured thier or ig inal ranks ( Tab l e 2 .13 ) . A pos i t i v e (upward)

variati?.'-: in the ranking (between 1 t o 5) has been experienced

by Barisal , Mymensingh, Dinajpur, Bogra, Narshingdi , Naogaon

urban c ent(;rs of Bangladesh. High (6th to 10 th rank) and ver\'

high ( n t h to 23rd rank) fluctuation has been exper ienced by

1017

Tablo 2.13: Kank Fluctuation of Urban Centers of Bangladesh^ 1901-1981

SI. No.

Name of Urban centers

'f Net variation of rank from 1901 to 1981

Sum of variation of rank

Maximum variation

1. Dhaka 0 0 0 2. Chittagong 0 0 0 3. Sirajgonj -9 8 -9 4. Rajshahi 0 9 -4 r,. D' baria -12 12 -12 6. Comilla -4 9 -6 7. Barisal 1 8 4 8. Pabna -5 11 -6 9. Jamalpur -6 14 -8 10. Madaripur -20 41 -28 11. Navabganj -5 38 -18 12. Tangail -5 29 -13 13. Kishoreganj -22 26 -24 14. Rangpur 7 19 9 15. Mymensingh 4 17 11 16. Perojpur -20 25 -20 17. Sylhet 12 29 13 18. Dinajpur 4 20 7 19. Sherpur -18 26 -23 20. Faridpur -7 19 -9 21. Netrakona -17 21 -19 22. Khulna 19 19 19 23. Bajitpur -15 15 -15 24. Ch andpur 6 26 16 25. Kotchandpur -13 13 -13 26. Natore -12 23 -12 27. Satkhira - 8 29 -11 28. Jessore 20 20 20 29. Bogra 3 21 12 30. Noakhali - 1 19 9 31. Muktagacha - 7 7 -7 32. Saidpur 23 43 28 33. Meherpur - 5 7 - 5 34 . Debhnln - 4 6 - 4 35. Kushlia 14 27 14 36. lloUigonJ - 3 8 - 5 37. Jhalakati - 1 14 - 4 38. Patuakhali 0 18 - 6 39. Narshingdi 3 3 3 40. Ishurdi 0 0 0 41 . Companiganj 0 0 0 42. Chowinohani 0 0 0 43. lihnlrnb - 9 9 - 9 44. Polash 0 0 0 45. Rupganj 0 0 0

. NnoHnon 4 a 8 47. lUiny.ichang U 0 0 40. Cliuadanga 7 7 7

Notes: " T h e "net variation" of rank shows the d i f ference between the rank of an urban center from 1901 (or the year when it becomes urban) to 1981.

* * The "sum of variation" of rank shows the sum of all the fluctuations of the rank of an urban center from 1901 (or the year when it becomes urban) to 1981.

* * * "Maximum variation" shows the d i f ference between the highest and lowest rank of an urban center during any period between 1901 to 1981.

108

eight urban centers. They are Rangpur, Sylhet, Khulna,

Chandpur, Jessore, Saidpur • and Chuadanga. Their fluctuation

ranges between 6 to 23 t imes. Out of 48 urban centers only 13

towns observed pos i t i ve var ia t ion in the i r rank order . Other

24 urban centers have epxer ienced a negat ive var iat ion in the ir

rank orders . Nine towns, namely, Coir.illa, Pabna, Nawabganj,

Tangai l , Noakhali, Meherpur, Debhata, Hobiganj and Jhalakati

show a negative fluctuation ranging between -1 to -5 t imes. Rest

of the 15 exper ienced a negat ive fluctuation between -5 to -22.

They are S ira jgonj , Brahmanbaria, Jamalpur, Madaripur,

Kishoreganj , Pero jpur , Sherpur, Far idpur , Netrakona, Baj i tpur ,

Kotchandpur, Natore, Satkhira, Muktagacha and Bairab Bazar

towns have high and ve ry high negat ive var ia t i on .

It w i l l be worthwhi le to invest igate the urban dynamics

of urban rank fluctuation. In f igure 2.20 ranks of towns have

been plotted. A change in posit ion o v e r the period does not

necessar i ly mean that a spec i f i c town has lost or gained

population. Other urban centers ranked above or below i t may

have performed more poor ly or better to bring about a change

in r e l a t i v e posi t ion. In a h i gh l y s impl i s t i c sense these rank

re lat ionships demonstrate one aspect of the urban dynamics -

the r e la t i ve position of urban centers being dependent upon

what is happening to o thers in the urban system. However ,

there are some obvious changes in rank which are c l ear l y

d iscerni b le .

109

Industrial and sea port c i t y Khulna and small scale

industrial c i t y Saidpur have exper ienced rap id promotion through

suburban expansion. Natural resource or iented towns such as

Sy lhet , Comilla and Mymensingh have gained the i r status because

of mineral exp lo i ta t ion. It is important to note that it does

not r equ i re a v e r y signif icant increase or decrease in population

to rad i ca l l y change the rank of a l owe r - o rde r urban centers,

whi le at the top end of the scale qui te substantial increase

may be required be fore a change in rank can be ach i eved .

2.7 MEAN SIZE OF URBAN CENTERS:

In f igure 2.21 and table 2.14 the average s i z e of urban

centers is shown in d i f f e rent c lasses in Bangladesh. Howe\"er,

besides the changes in the status of urban centers in d i f f e rent

c lass -o rders , the study of mean s i z e of urban centers in

d i f f e rent class o rders during the per iod 1901 to 1981 indicates

that the general trend of mean s i ze of urban centers shows

continuous growth in the mean s ize of a l l urban centers .

Indiv idual c lass-order analysis shows that c lass I urban

centers have increased the i r mean s i z e cons iderably upto 1974

and a f t e r that the trend has become downword. There were no

class II urban centers, upto 1931. In 1941 to 1981 the trend

changed and there emerged class I I urban centers. A ve rv high

fluctuation has been found in class IH urban centers . It starts

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Re]uan/"90

112

from 1921 and come to a high posit ion in 1941 but drops by

1951 but again r i s es t i l l 1981. Except in 1951 v e r y l i t t l e

fluctuation has been observed in class IV towns. A small

fluctuation in class V and class VI have been i d en t i f i ed .

113

REFERENCES

Alamgir , M. (1974), "Some Ana lys is of Distribution of Income, Com'sumption, Saving and Pove r t y in Bangladesh"- The Development Studies, Vo l . 2 ( 4 ) pp . 737-818.

BBS (1986) , Stat ist ical Year Book of Bangladesh, Government of Bangladesh, Dhaka, pp . 125-137.

B e r r y , B . J . L . and Horton, F .E . (1970) , Geographic pe rspec t i ves on urban systems; wi th Integrated Readings, Prent i c -Hal l , Inc. New Jersey , p . 12.

Bose, A. (1978), Ind ia ' s Urbanization 1901-2001, Tata McGraw Hi l l Publishing Company, L t d . , New De lh i , pp. 72-110.

Bose, S .K. (1973), "The Pr ince Situation in Bangladesh - A Pre l iminary Ana lys i s : , Bangladesh Economic Rev i ew ,

Vol . 3 ( 2 ) , pp. 243-68.

Census of India (1921), Report , Vo l . 1, Part I PP . 11-12.

Chaudhury, R.H. (1980), Urbanization in Bangladesh, Center for Urban Studies, Dhaka, pp . 1-10.

Chr i s ta l l e r , W. (1933), Central places in South Germany, Translated by C.W. Baskin, New Jersey , Pre i i t i c Hal l , 1966, pp. 1-14.

Chr is topher , S.R. (1971), Malaria in the Punjab, Government of India, Calcutta, pp. 15-35.

C lark , P . J . and F.C. Evans (1954), "Distance to Nearest Neighbour as a measure of spat ial Relationships in Population", Ecology, Vo l . 35, pp . 445-53.

Chaudhury, R .H . , N.R. Ahmed and S. Huda (1976), "Management of Immigrants to Urban Regions of Bangladesh", in National Report on Human Settlements in Bangladesh, Presented at Habitat United Nations Conference on Human settlements, Vancouver, May 31-June 14, pp . 87-114.

Chr i s ta l l e r , W. ( 1933), Die Zentralan Orte in Suddeuschl Gustar f ' i scher Varag, Jeva.

Dav is , K. (1951), The Population of India and Pakistan, Princeton Univers i ty Press , Princeton, p. 48, p. 51.

114

Elahi , K.M. (1985) "Urbanization in Bangladesh: A h is tor ica l Background", Souvenir, BNGA, Dhaka, pp . 16,17.

Ghurye, G.S. (1962), C i t i es and C iv i l i za t i on , Bombay, pp. 63-75.

Helbock, R.W. (1975), "Urban Population Growth in Pakistan, 1961-1972", Pakistan Development Rev i ew , Vo l . 14 (3 ) , pp. 315-333.

King, L . J . (1962) , "A Quantative express ion of the Pattern or urban settlements in selected areas of United States", TESG, January, pp . 1 -7 ,

Majumder, R .C. (1924), The History of Bengal, Dhaka Univers i ty , Dhaka.

Mishra, R .P . (1970), Medical Geography of India National Book Trust, New Delhi , p . 85.

NIUA (1988), State of I nd i a ' s Urbanization, Govt , of India New Delhi, p . 27.

o

P h i l i p , H. and Ress (1979), Residential Patterns in American Cit ies : 1960, The Univers i ty of Chicago, Dept. of Geography, Research paper no. 189, pp . 153-54.

Prasad, I . (1939) , A Short His tory of Muslim Rule in India, Al lahabad, India.

Rashid, H. (1977), Geography of Bangladesh, Univers i ty Press Ltd, Dhaka, pp. 160-82.

Rejaun, H.B. (1988) , Demographic corre la tes of Urban Dynamics: A Case study of Bangladesh: Unpublished M.Ph i l , d issertat ion, Al igarh Muslim Univers i t y , A l i garh , p. 78.

Voorhees, Alan M. (1970), "Urban Growth Charac te r i s t i c s " , in the Putnam et al ( e d s . ) , A Geography of Urban P laces : Selected Readings, Mathuen, London, p. 81.

Zachariab, K.C. (1964), A Histor ica l Study of Internal Migration in the Indian sub-continent, 1901-1931, Asia Publishing House, Bombay, p. 262.

CHAPTER - I I I

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIMENSION OF URBAN DYNAMICS

In chapter two elements of urban dynamics in

Bangladesh were presented in re lat ion to genesis of urban p laces ,

factor of urban growth, spacing of urban centers, spat ia l

interaction, s i ze -c lass of urban centers, rank-order fluctuation

and mean s ize of urban centers. The study covered a period from

1901 to 1981. The Demographic and socio-economic conditions of

the selected urban centers are also important in

understanding the urban dynamics. The study cover the per iod

of last three censuses. The present chapter attempts to deal wi th

selection of urban centers and some of the important components

of population, e . g . , growth, age, sex and occupational

structure of population. These components help to understand

the o ve ra l l demographic and socio-economic conditions and lead

to the certain conclusion which he lp in the ident i f icat ion of urban

dynamics var iab l es , used in the Pr incipal Component Analys is

(FCA) in next chapter .

3 . 1 SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF SLECTED URBAN CENTERS

There are 492 urban centers randomly distr ibuted in about

144,OUU sq.km area having 13.54 mil l ions population (under the

new def in i t ion in 1981). Urban area includes places having

116

Municipal i ty (Paurashava} , a Town Committee (Shahar Committee)

or a Cantonment Board. Under" normal c r i t e r ia , an urban area must

have a concentration of population of at least 5,000 persons in

continuous col lect ion of houses where the community sense is

deve loped and the area i s p rov ided v^ith publ ic u t i l i t i e s such

as, roads, e l e c t r i c i t y with street l i gh t , water supply , sanitary

arrangemen+, etc. An area which maintains urban character is t i cs

but has a population of less than 5,000 and the Thana head

quarters may also be treated as an urban center.

The noteable thing about this def ini t ion is that the thana

headquaters are treated as urban i r r e spec t i v e of the i r l e v e l of

urban character is t ics . Moreover, some growth centers l i ke places

of trade and commercial importance, hats ( pe r i od i c market) and

bazars (regular markets) were also treated as urban. But the

sample has been drawn on the basis of 1961 census. At that time

the total number of urban center was 78 and it rose to 108

in 1974. Out of 78 urban centers in 1961, 40 centers (F i f t yone

per cent) have been selected f o r the study ( F i g . 3 . 1 ) . These

40 urban centers have been se lected through s t ra t i f i ed random

sampling from 4 d iv i s iona l headquarters v i z , Dhaka, Chittagong,

Khulna and Rajshahi . Ten urban centers have been se lected from

each of the four d i v i s i ons .

117

Fig- 3-1 RE JUAN,'?:

m

3.2 SPATIO-TEMPORAL DIMENSION OF URBAN POPULATION OF

SELECTED URBAN CENTERS

Urban centers ca r ry a l l t ypes of secondary and t e r t i a ry

ac t i v i t i e s and act as areas where i t i s functioning demographic

and socio-economic components interact with each other .

Demographic structure i s one of the basic dimensions of urban

settlement systems and there fore i t w i l l be worth wh i l e to study

it in some deta i l .

3 .2 .1 : Population Growth Character is t ics of the Selected Urban

Centres

Column 2 of the table 3.1 shows the growth rate of

selected fo r ty urban centers during a per iod of 30 years from

1951 to 1981. Column 3 and column 4 show the annual growth rate .

Column 3 i s based on 1951 census and the column 4 i s based on

1974 census. On the other hand colmumn 5 shows the growth

character is t ics of urban centers.

During the per iod 1951-81, the rate of growth of Khulna

was 44.15 per cent, Jhenaidh 31.75 per cent, and Dhaka 30.81

per cent \>fhich was high as compared to 21.46 pe r cent average

annual Rro\ifth rate f o r the urban population. But be fore the

introduction of new de f in i t i on of urban centers in some census

in 1981 the national average growth rate was 13.65 per cent and

m

Table 3.1: Urban Growth Character of the Selected Urban Gaiters

SI. Urban Population Annual rate of growth Nature of Urban No. Centers growth in _ — dynamics

per cent 1951-1981 1974-81-1951-81

1. Dhaka 924 30.81 15.00 Extra ordinary Faridpur 163 5.44 5.29 Normal

3. Tangail 260 8.68 7.06 Normal 4. Jamalpur 240 8.02 7.48 Normal 5. Manikganj 218 7.27 5.61 Normal 6. Narsingdi 414 13.80 12.85 Dynamic 7. Muktagacha 133 4.45 5.25 Normal 8. Netrokona 195 6.50 5.93 Normal 9. Modhupur 19 0.63 2.25 Declining 10. Mirzapur 15 0.50 1.58 Declining 11. Comilla 290 9.67 16.14 Extra ord inary 12. Sylhet 413 13.79 26.10 Extra ordinary 13. Noakhali 254 8.48 11.68 Dynamic 14. Rangamati 467 15.58 11.12 Dynamic 15. C o x ' s Bazar 404 13.47 12.62 Dynamic 16. Feni 473 15.77 11.87 Dynamic 17. Lakhmipur 87 2.91 , 10.12 Dynamic 18. Sunamganj 121 4.05 4.20 Static 19. Fat ikchar i 15 0.50 1 .82 Declining 20. Derai 13 0.45 1.71 Declining 21. Khulna 1474 44.15 7.01 Normal 22. Bar isal 94 3.12 10.88 DvTiamic 23. Jessore 524 17.47 11.40 Dj-namic 24. Patuakhali 368 12.27 11.01 Dynamic 25. Bhola 430 14.33 22.43 Extra ordinary 26. Barguna 91 3.05 8.93 Dynamic 27. M eherpur 229 7.64 6.84 Normal 28. Jhenaidh 952 31.75 5.85 Normal 29. Bheramora 14 0.48 1.63 Declining 30. Mirzaganj 11 0.37 1.27 Declining 31. Bogra 112 3.73 1.76 Declining 32. Dinajpur 182 6.07 8.05 Dynamic 33. Pabna 241 8.05 10.75 Dynamic 34. F^angpur 402 13.41 15.76 Extra ord inary 35. Naogaon 371 12.36 7.72 Dynamic 36. Sherpur 162 5.42 7.75 Dynamic 37. Thakurgaon 239 7.97 16.46 Extra ord inary 38. Gaibandha 187 6.24 6.34 Normal 39. Ishurdi 524 17.45 9.34 Dynamic 40. Porsha 21 0.71 2.04 Declining

^Coefficient of Correlation ( r ) = U.22

120

Rangamati (15.58 per cen t ) , Ishurdi (17.45 per cent ) , Jessore

(17.47 per cent ) , Feni (15.77 per cent ) , Bhola (14.33 pe r cent ) ,

Narshingdi (13.80 per cent) and Sylhet (13.79 per cent) were

also above the average l e v e l of urban growth. However , other

31 centers are below the national average l e v e l of urban growth.

The dynamics of urban growth i s shown in F ig . 3 .2. The s ize

of the c i rc l es i s based on the per cent of growth of population

during the per iod of 30 years from 1951 to 1981. Again, on the

basis of 1974-81, an annual grov/th rate and nature of urban

dynamics of e v e r y ind iv idua l urban centers have been presented

in column 4 and 5 r e spec t i v e l y in table 3.1. The tab le shows

that out of 40 urban centers only 6 are growing rap id ly

( e x t r a o r d i n a r y ) . The i r annual mean growth rate i s 18.65 per cent.

The centers are Dhaka (15.00 per cent ) , Comilla (16.14 per cent ) ,

Sy lhet (26.10 per cent ) , Bhola (22.43 per cent ) , Rangpur (15.76

per cent ) , and Thakurgaon (16.46 per cent ) .

Fi f teen urban centers show a moderate (Dynamic) rate

ranging between 7.5 per cent and 15.0 per cent. The towns in

this range category are Noakhal i , Rangamati, C o x ' s Bazar, Feni

and Lakhmipur ( in Chittagong d i v i s i on ) , Bar isa l , Jessore,

Patuakhali and Barguna ( in Khulna d i v i s i on ) , Dinajpur, Fabna,

Nae^oan, Sherpur and Ishurdi (in Rajshahi d i v i s i on ) and Narsingol i

( in Dhaka d i v i s i o n ) . Fr idpur , Tangail , Jamalpur, Manikganj,

Notrikona, Khulna, Meharpur, Jhenaidh . Muktagacha, and

Fig.3.2 Rejuan /"so

122

r

r

9'O'e

BANGLADESH

\

• yj

. A

STATUS OF URBAN DYNAMICS 1990

X) 0 20 AO 60 Kelometers

© • f

\e e /

rJ V

^ ' ^ / >

23N

I N D I A e ^

INDEX ^ ^ Declining Urban Centers

^ndnt Urban Centers

Q Normal/Slowly Growing Urban Centers

*^^Dynamic/Moderately Growing Urban Centers

• ^ ^ E x t r a Ordinary/Rapidly Growing Urban Centers 9,0 E

123

Gaibandha are normal growing urban centers, the i r growth rate

ranging between 5.0 to 7.5 pe r cent. Settlements with a rate of

growth of 2.5 and 5.0 per cent per annum have been grouped

as stat ic urban centers . But only one urban center f a l l s under

this group. This is Sunamganj in Chittagong d i v i s i on . There are,

l as t l y , declining urban centers, namely Modhupur, Fat ikchar i

and Mirzapur, two adminis t rat ive urban centers i . e . Bheramara

and Boyra, and three upgraded thana, i . e . Derai , Mirzaganj,

and Porsha. However , the o v e r a l l status of urban dynamics as

measured by urban growth indicates a signi f icant re lat ionship

between s ize of c lass and rate of urban growth ( t ab l e 3 . 2 ) .

The map 3.4 shows the quantity of urban population

change from 1951 to 1981 in each urban center. Except f o r few

centers (Dhaka, Khulna and Jhenaidh) , the growth rate was slow

to moderate. U n d e r ^ d e v e l o p e d economy is the main cause of

stagnancy of the urban centers. Moreover , i l l i t e r a cy or rural at'ea

and lack of other centr ipeta l factors l i ke - i l l drained phys ica l

s i tes , unhygenic condit ions, inadequate urban amenities are

af fect ing the pace of urban growth. The causes of high growth

rates in Dhaka, Khulna and Jhenaidh are bet ter health and

education f ac i l i t i e s , bet ter job opportunit ies, bet ter environmental

conditions due to proper sanitation and development of industrial

and commercial stabl ishments. For the same reason some of the

uld as well as new d i s t r i c t ht;adquarters have been growing at

124

F ig . 3.if Rejuan/'90

125

Tablo 3 .2 : Dynamics of Selected Urban Centers

Size of Number of Settlement

Size of class

Total Declining Static Normal Dynamic Extra ordinary less 2.5-5.0 5.0-7.5 7.5-15.0 15 and above 2.5% growth growth growth growth growth rate rate rate rate rate

I 9 0 0 1 4 4

II 8 1 0 3 4 0

I I I 14 1 0 4 7 2

IV 7 4 1 2 0 0

V 2 2 0 0 0 0

V I - 0 0 0 0 0 0

Al l 40 8 1 10 15 6

= 72.94-40 = 32.94 with d . f . ; s ignif icant 0.01 l e v e l

-Less than 5,000 inhabitants urban centers have been excluded from the study, which is under new de f in i t ion.

126

a slow to moderate ra te . Migration has not p layed an important

ro le in the urban deve lopment . It is much less when compared

with deve loped wor ld and even some developing countries. Most

of the urban population is the result o f natural growth, except

in some d i s t r i c t headquaters and r i v e r port oriented centers,

where immigration v/as f a i r^ l y h igh .

3 .2 .2 : Spat io-Temporal Patterns of Population Density in the

se lected Urban Centers

For better planning and development of urban centers,

the intra-urban pattern of density d istr ibut ion with relation to

spatial and temporal var iat ion is of great geographical

s igni f icance. The causcs and factors of concentration of urban

population are of great importance in the understanding of urban

dynamics.

A number of Western geographer as wel l as Indian

oeooraphers ha\'e attempted to formulate a 'dynamic mathematical

model ' to v i sua l i z e the internal and external mechanism of the

dynamics of density of the c i t i es . The contributions of Rees

(1979), Chapin and Stewart (1959), Be r r y , Simmons, and Tennant

(1963), Clark (1951), Hrush (1968) and Newling (1966) on the

spatial d istr ibut ion of population densit ies have descr ibed several

empir ical functions. Dutt ( 1987) has done an outstanding work

127

on desnity Gradient of Calcutta c i t y . On the other hand Brush

has pointed out four types of density d istr ibut ion in Indian c i t ies

through regression analys is . Subsequently, he had suggested an

application of new model to the analysis of population

distr ibution. However , the present attempt is the measuring of

population density and i t ' s var iat ion in the se lected 40 urban

centers of Bangladesh. The table 3 .3 . shows the spatio-temporal

var iat ions of dens i ty . The gross density of population per sq.km.

va r i e s among the urban centers. It va r i e s between - 1379 to

+ 5172 in 1961-74 and -2,586 to + 5,851 persons .per sq. km.

in 1974-81 per iod . National gross densi ty of urban population

is 3,592, 4,619 and 5,503 fo r the census year of 1961, 1974 and

1981 r e s p e c t i v e l y . It has been observed that the urban centers

with less than the average density were 52.5, per cent of the

total urban centers in 1961, 37.5 per cent in 1974 and 40.0 per

cent in 1981.

The temporal change revea ls that the density of

population had been increasing during 1961-74 and 1974-81. There

were few cases of decreasing population. This was so in some

small urban centers. Decreasing density of urban population has

been exper ineced in Jamalpur, Modhupur, Mirzapur, Cox ' s Bazar,

Lakshmipur, Bar isa l , Barguna, Meherpur, Bheramara, Mirzaganj,

Thakurgaon, and Porsha in 1961-74 period and Faridpur,

Mirzapur, K.it ikchnri, l)f3rai, Fatuakhali , Bheramara, Mirzaganj,

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130

Bogra , Thakurgaon, Gaibandha and Porsha in 1974-81 pe r i od . The

negative var ia t ion i s the result of horizontal expansion of urban

centers.

In a l l the three census per iods , i t has been found that

only a few urban centers appear in the high density group,

whereas a cons iderable number of urban centers are in the lower

density group ( F i g . 3 . 4 ) . Only one small urban center (Nars ingdi )

has appeared in high density group v;ith a population density

of 11,547 per s q . km. It can be pointed out that this urban center

is based on small and cottage industr ies and is v e r y near to

Dhaka stat is t ica l Metropol itan Area and i s surv iv ing as a sate l l i t e

town. Sylhet , Noakhal i , Feni, Jassore, Bhola, Dinajpur, Pabna,

Rangpur, Naogaon, Sherpur, Gaibandha, f a l l in medium density

group with the population density 5000 to 10,000 persons per

sq .km. ( tab le 3 . 5 ) . The reason respons ib le f o r these medium

densit ies i s that these centers are bas i ca l l y , prominent d is t r i c t

l e v e l headquaters, have some natural resource and large scale

industries l i ke sugarcane, food process ing, chemical industries

etc. There are two exceptions in the case of Sherpur and

Gaibandha. Sherpur and Gaibandha are located in the pe r iphe r i e s

of big c i t i es and densely populated urban centers of Rangpur

and Bogra (F i g . 3 . 4 ) .

Less than 5,000 persons per sq .km. has been designated

as the low dens i ty . It i s ubiquitous in nature. But the spatial

131

pattern indicates that the south-eastern part of the country i s

r e l a t i v e l y dominated by less densely populated urban centers

and it i s c losc ly re lated to the average density of population

in the country. On the other hand^ urban centers l i ke Dhaka,

Nars ingdhi , Comilla, Khulna, Bar isa l , and BQgra are in the high

density group (table 3 . 5 ) .

Table 3.5:Urban centers of D i f f e rent Population Sizes Grouped

According to Density, 1981

Urban No. of Density per sq . km. s i z e class

Urban Centers 10,000

above (High)

10,000 5,000

(Medium)

Below 5,000 (Low)

Average density to the class

I • 8 4 4 0 10,871

II 9 2 3 4 7,587

I I I 12 0 3 9 3,810

IV 9 0 1 8 2,718

V 2 0 0 2 1,349

Total 40 6 11 23 5,703

Source (1981): Report on Urban Area, Bangladesh Bureau of Stat ist ics

There are s ix c i t i e s , four in class I and two in class II

category which have a high density of population. There high

densi t ies an; dun e i ther to the ir being tfie national ca[3ital or

d iv i s iona l head(iuarter, r i v e r por t , p laces of industrial a c t i v i t y

132

or due to the i r being o ld centers. Towns located on the main

redd or ra i lway or at the i r convergence or towns on r i v e r s or

sea ports have r e l a t i v e l y higher densit ies than the towns away

from these communication l ines. A v e r y interest ing and signif icant

relat ionship has been ident i f i ed between dens i ty of population

( r = 0.79) and the time of origin of towns.

A v e r y common wor ld -w ide thing obse rved is that the

big urban centers are more density_^ populated than smaller urban

centers. Harr is (1956) has ident i f i ed the pressure of res ident ia l

and industrial landuse, and has proved the statement. Another

character is t ic i s that the big c i t i es of the wor ld have also high

proport ion of housing types (through v e r t i c a l development of

houses) , and th is is re lated with the high density of towns.

Subsequently^ it i s also observed that dwel l ing density and

density of population were highest at the center of the c i ty and

that i t decl ined outwards: d is tance-decay is in operation (Clark, '

1951, Newling, 1969, Simeon, 1970 and Datt and D'Sa, 1987).

So, i t means, the smaller urban centers would have the less

agglomerative e f f e c t than the big c i t i e s and, the re f o re , lower

densit ies would be found, in 1961 , US census proved the above

re lat ionship. The corre lat ion between urban centers and density

of population have also supported the re lat ionship ( tab le 3 .6 ) .

In 19G1 the r value was 0.41 and it s l i gh t l y increased in 1974

( r = 0 .43 ) . In 1981 the r value further rose to 0.55, indicating

133

a moderately high relat ion among the var iab les and these are

tested in one per cent s igni f icant l e v e l . Thus, temporal sh i f t

of urban center on the basis of density group has been shown

in table 3.6.

Table 3 .6 : Urban Centers of D i f f e rent Density Groups in 1961,

1974 and 1981

Census Years

Density per sq .km.

10,000 and above (High)

10,000 to 5,000 (Medium)

Below 5,000

(Low)

1961

1974

198]

2

5

6

7

10

11

31

25

23

Source: Sane as of table 3.3.

The table shows that there were only two urban centers

in high density category in 1961 and the i r number has gradual ly

increased to f i v e and s ix in 1974 and 1981 r e s p e c t i v e l y . In the

same way, medium group (10,000 to 5,000 population density per

sq. km. there were seven urban centers in 1961 but the i r number

increased to ten and eleven in 1974 and 1981 r e s p e c t i v e l y . In

the lov, density category the situation i s r e v e r s ed . There \/ere

31 urban centers in th is category in 1961 but the number duclinod

to 25 and 23 in 1974 and 1981 r e spec t i v e l y .

134

3.2 .3 : Age Composition

The age composition d isp lays important demographic

character is t ics of urban population. Its b io log ica l and physica l

elements a f f e c t the urban dynamics. Growth or dec l ine of a c i t y ,

in fact , depends upon f e r t i l i t y , mortality and migrations. But

''a part icular age-sex distr ibution in e f f e c t sets certain l imits

on the l e v e l s of f e r t i l i t y and mortal i ty in a population, and by

extension of the argument, on the growth or dec l ine of a c i t y .

For example, a c i t y with a substantial share of i t s population

over f o r ty is l i k e l y to have a lower rate of natural increase

than a c i t y with proport ionate lv more people in the young adult

ages (Browning, 1961). The impact of such rate, is carr ied on

throughout the generations.

Age composition also determines the nature of

migrations. It encourages or discourages the movement Spec ia l i ze

of people for s e l e c t i v e employment or for higher education.

Because of migrations, young adults decrease in areas from where

they emigrate and increase in areas where they immigrate. Young

adult age group also inv i t es ac t i ve male population from rural

area as a chain migration. So age i s v e r y important factor for

urban dynamics. However, on account of the l imitat ions of

detai led census data f o r euch urban area, only four categories

of age groui) are considered and on that basis median age

population has bc.c.n calculated. Temporal changing pattenrs of

135

median age population of the se lected 40 urban centres is worked

out in the table 3.7 and the age composit ion categories with

the median age calculation technique are shown in appendix 3.1.

Median age is an important index to measure the urban

growth dynamics of part icular urban p lace . Bas ica l ly , i t he lps

to explain the young or old character i s t i cs of population.

However , a l l the three census years indicate the young character

of population. The temporal ana lys is in tab le 3.7 shows the

gradual decrease of median age, but the condition in lower l e v e l

urban centers i s s ta t i c . Age composition var iat ion in the urban

centers shows a c lose and pos i t i v e relat ion with the s i ze of

the town as shown in table 3.7. The analys is states that the

adolescent migration i s gradual ly increasing in the higher order

urban centers for jobs and education.

3 - 2 . 4 Sex Composition

Sex rat io is an another important aspect of demographic

structure in the urban dynamics. Imbalance in sex-ra t io a f f e c t s

the growth tests of urban populations. The imbalance is caused

e i ther by d i f f e r en t i a l b i r th rates or by d i f f e r en t ia l death rates .

Centipetal or centri fugal factors of migration is another cause

of imbalance in urban sex rat io . Youthful male group migrate

in urbann area tor better j ob opportunit ies or for h igher

education in the developing economy. Imbalance in sex

composition Uvuis to certain adve r se e f f e c t s spec ia l l y in soc ia l .

136 Table 3 .7 : Median Age of Urban Population in Selected 40 urban

centers, 1961, 1974 and 1981.

Name of Urban Centres

1961

Median Age

1974 1981

1. Dhaka 20.37 19.9 18.7 2. Far idpur 18.13 17.4 17.2 3. Tangail 19.25 19.1 16.9 4. Jamalpur 18.87 18.0 16.6 5 . Manikganj 18.65 18.6 17.5 6. Narsingd/7? 19.42 19.3 18.9 7. Muktagacha 17.36 17.0 16.3 8. Netrokona 17.75 17.4 16.5 9. Modhupur 17.38 17.5 17.4 10. Mirzapur 17.89 17.9 16.9 11. Comilla 18.97 18.5 17.9 12. Sy lhet 17.63 17.3 17.5 13. Noakholi 17.47 17.1 16.8 14. Rangamati 21.04 20.1 17.0 15. Cox ' s Bazar 18.08 17.6 16.9 16. Feni 21.38 17.5 16.7 17. Lakhmirpur 17.54 17.5 16.9 18. Sunamganj 17.16 17.0 17.2 19. Fat ikchar i 17.87 18.1 16.7 20. Derai 17.05 17.1 17.2 21. Khulna 19.95 19.4 18.6 22. Barisal 19.34 19.6 17.0 23. Jessore 17.59 17.3 17.0 24. Patuakhali 18.83 18.2 16.8 25. Bhola 18.07 18.9 17.5 26. Barguna 18.98 18.7 16.9 27. Meherpur 17.82 17.5 16.7 28. Jhenaidh 21.35 20.0 19.6 29. Bheramara 27.66 17.1 16.7 30. Mirzaganj 17.21 17.2 16.2 31. Bogra 17.13 17.3 16.8 32. Dinajpur 17.49 17.3 17.0 33. Pabna 18.43 17.4 16.5 34. Rangpur 17.99 17.4 17.1 35. Naogaon 20.34 17.6 16.7 36. Sherpur 16.94 16.8 16.2 37. Thakurgaon 16.19 18.0 17.0 38. Gaibandha 17.92 17.5 16.8 39. Ishardi :J.14 19.9 17.2 40 Porsha 16.85 16.9 16.4

Coe f f . of c o r r ( r ) 0.28 0.41 0.58

Source: Same as table 3. 3, but subsequently computed from the or ig ina l age group data.

137

economic and community l i f e . Increase of adolescent male group,

subsequently a f f e c t s the natural growth rate and as we l l as leads

the immigration in urban centers. F ina l ly , s ex - ra t i o influences

the reproduct ive performance, and determines the migratory

character .

The tab le 3.8 shows the sex rat io of the se lected for ty

urban centers in Bangladesh. The comparative data of the three

censuses ( i . e . , 1961, 1974 and 1981) shows that female sex rat io

increased in 1974 over the 1961 and s l i gh t l y decreased in 1981

in most of the urban centers. Big urban centers l ike-Dhaka,

Comil la, Sylhet e tc . a re character ized low female sex rat io

but small urban centers show a v e r y small male-female d i f f e rence

( t ab l e 3 . 8 ) . This may due to high rate of male immigrants

in big c i t i es . The table also shows that the female populations

have increased in 1974 and 1981 compared to 1961. Due to the

high rate of male death in the l iberat ion war of 1971, the

number of females has r isen-up. Moreover, low rate of m^erna l

mortal i ty in recent decades and high rate female immigration

to c i t i es in garment fac tor i es and other assembling job have

inf lated the rural-urban migration. In 1974-75 there was nation

w ide famine and during that time mostly males migrated in urban

areas for subsidized rationing, job opportunit ies , deter iat ion

of law and o rder situation in rural areas that resulted in the

reduction of female sex rat io again in the subsjgquent census,

1981.

138

Table 3.8: Sex composition of selected 40 urban center^38of Bangladesh (Number of Females per 1000 Males)

Urban Centers Number of Females pe r 1000 Males

1961 1974 1981

1. Dhaka 617 725 718 2. Faridpur 807 891 888 3. Tangail 896 890 879 4. Jamalpur 901 900 884 5. Maniksani 918 893 841 6. Narasingdhi 855 633 785 7. Muktagacha 899 917 886 8. Netrokona 779 795 835 9. Modhupur 932 951 905 10. Mirzapur 986 954 861 11. Comilla 735 834 779 12. Sylhet 733 758 794 13. Noakholi 808 752 803 14. Rangamati 441 689 717 15. Cox 's Bazar 734 783 886 16. Feni 583 584 852 17. Lakhmipur 797 858 831 18. Sunamganj 735 784 865 19. Fatikchari 825 856 855 20. Derai 870 948 939 21. Khulna 625 745 762 22. Barisal 676 825 719 23. Jessore 637 791 869 24. Patuakhali 734 828 775 25. Bhola 691 745 795' 26. Barguna 753 755 885 27. Meherpur 903 934 885 28. Jhenaidh 757 853 835 29. Bheramara 831 877 861 30. Mirzaganj 859 894 915 31. Bogra 857 888 788 32. Dinajpur 787 906 860 33. Pabna 882 920 903 34. Rangpur 768 863 865 35. Naogaon 876 893 795 36. Sherpur 906 951 865 37. Thakurgaon 742 799 845 38. Gaibandha 821 884 825 39. Ishardi 819 724 815 40. F'orsha 990 952 921

Coef f ic ient of c o r r ( r ) -0.32 -0.24 -0.43

Source: Same as table 3.3.

139

Out of 12,536,000 urban population 7,527,000 are males

and 6,009,000 are females. The sex rat io i s 789. But the

o ve ra l l national sex rat io is 942. The table 3.8 shows the

imbalanceness in the sex - ra t i o in the urban centers of Bangladesh

since 1961. Sex-rat io genera l ly va r i e s with the s i ze of urban

centers. Big c i t ies have a dominance of adult males. The s i ze

of c i ty and the sex - ra t i o inve rse l y corre lated with the female

sex and th is general ized phenomenon has been proved in

Bangladesh c i t i es , by the coe f f i c i ents of correlat ion ( r ) . The

re lat ionship between s ize of the c i t i es and sex ra t io for 1961

( - 0 . 3 2 ) , 1974 ( -0 .24 ) and 1981 ( - 0 . . 4 3 ) show the medium degree

of negat ive re lat ionship . Th i s trend r e f l e c t the migratory

character of male population in b igger urban centers . Young

males migrate to big c i t i es for better opportunit ies of job,

education, and other f a c i l i t i e s . Never the less , a great deal of

imbalance in female element in the composition of population,

i s associated with the mechanism of urban dynamics through

invi tat ion of young male group that helps to boost the urban

population.

The analysis of sex composition r evea l s that in none

of the urban centers in any decade since 1961, the females

outnumbered the males. The background study s i gn i f i e s that

men are migrating to urban centers to supplement the i r fami ly

income from non-agricultural sources, and the females counterpart

are l e f t in the v i l l a g e s to look a f t e r the fami ly and the

agricultural a c t i v i t y . The system of joint family in v i l l a g e s .

140

some social norms and taboos, and housing shortage and rental

costs in urban areas mitigate against women's migration are also

to c i t i es , and result a low female sex ra t io . Young male of

the cit ies/towns inv i tes the rural peoples for bet ter j ob ,

uducalion and other f a c i l i t i e s in urban ccnters. As a result

a certain l e v e l of accelerat ion of urban dynamics can be

v i sua l i zed with re lat ion to s i ze and s i te of urban centers in

Bangladesh.

3 .2 .5 Dependency Ratio

Dependency rat io measures the number in the ac t i v e

ages compared to those in the dependent age groups (Browning,

1961). The dependency rat io i s important economic index to

i d en t i f y the burden on the economical ly ac t i ve age group of

the population. The normal procedure of calculation of

dependency rat io for the developing countries is :

Dependency ratio = - ^ ^ ^ i ^ s f s V y r s f ^ ^ ^

I'hu table 3.9 enables us to have an idea of s ize class

of urban settlements and dependency rat io of population. The

temporal patterns of dependency rat io shows the gradual

increase of dependency in a l l urban centers except Sylhet .

Th i s i s due to v e r y high rate of in-migrat ion in the lower l e v e l

age group. The results of cnef f ic ient of correlat ion ( r ) indicate

141

Table 3.9: Dependency rat io and s i ze - of urban centers 1961,

1974, 1981.

Size class Average dependency rat io Size class

1961 1974 1981

I 83 86 102

I I 84 94 103

I I I 89 92 106

IV 92 90 109

V 94 105 104

VI 102 - -

jjj Coef f . of c o r r ( r ) - 0.35 -0.45 -0.35

Coef f ic ient of corre lat ion has been calculated between indiv idual urban centers and dependency rat io .

a low degree of negat ive relation between dependency ratio and

s i ze of the urban centers. It again s i gn i f i e s high rate of

migration in age group 15-59. Overa l l dependency rat io was

low in 1961 (91 .1 ) and 1974 (93.4) as compared to 1981 (105.1 ) .

But the dependency rat io increased with the decrease in the

h ierarch ica l status of the urban centers. Big urban centers

are character i zed by high rates of immigrant, i . e . , young

poo[)lc;s are migrating more towards urban centers to supplement

142

the i r fami ly income from non-agricultural sources. So, the

dependency rat io is gradual ly decreasing with increasing the

s i z e of towns. But the • dependency rat io is increasing with

re lat ion to t ime ( tab le 3 .9 ) in a l l t ypes of urban centers

except 1974 in class IV tov/n, i . e . , s i z e of the towns are

inve rse l y corre lated wi th dependency ra t i o . So, the dependency

rat io i s playing a v i t a l ro le to ident i f i cat ion the nature and

character of accounting of urban dynamics.

3 .2 .6 L i t e racy

L i t e racy p lays a v e r y s igni f icant ro le in dynamics.

Def init ion of l i t e racy has been changing from census to census.

In 1981 census a person was considered l i t e ra te if he/she could

" w r i t e a l e t te r in any language". On the other hand "a person

can read, w r i t e and understand in any language has considered

as a l i t e ra te in 1961 and 1974 censuses". The National urban

l i t e racy is 40.30 per cent for both sexes , and 48.28 per cent

and 29.96 per cent males and females r e s p e c t i v e l y . But the

l i t e racy rate i s considerably h igh in urban areas. Sunamganj

(51.7 per cent ) , Fat ikchar i (61.6 per cent ) , Bogra town (60.1

per cent) have the highest l i t e racy rates, fo l lowed by Barisal

(57.7 per cent ) , Feni (55.1 per cent ) , Sunakganj (51.7 per cent ) ,

Patuakhali (51.6 per cent) , Faridpur (51.3 per cent ) ,

Gaibandha (51.1 per cent ) , Rangamati (50.0 per cent ) , e tc . in

the 1981 census. But the male l i t e racy rate is h igher than the

female l i t e racy rate in al l cases.

143

According to 1974 census, 30.8 per cent males and

13.2 per cent females of age 5 years and above are reported

to be l i t e ra te in the rural areas (BBS, 1977}. The comparable

f igures in urban areas were 52.0 per cent and 33.7 per cent

r e s p e c t i v e l y .

Tab le 3.10: Average l i t e racy rate and s ize of Urban Centers

1961, 1974, 198l '^

Size and c lass Percentage of l i t e rates to the total population

1961 1974 1981

Case I

Above 1,00,QUO 41.1

Class II

50,000-1,00,000 39.9

Class I I I

25,000-50,000 39.2

Class IV

10,000-25,000 31.3

Class V

5,000-10,000 34.1

Class VI Below 5,000 22.1

45.9

4^.0

48.9

35.9

28 .6

47.8

45.2

43.4

38.7

24.8

Cootf. of c o r r . ( r )

0.19 0.14

Purcontagu uf pc)[)ulation 5 to 24 years attending school .

Coclticient of correlat ion ( r ) but\^e(jn indi\"idual urban ccmters arui rate at literacy has been ra lcuiated.

144

The table 3.10 p rov ides l i t e racy rate (5 years'^] of

urban population by s i ze class of urban centers. It appears

frora the table that the i r i s v e r y close re lat ionship between

s i ze of urban center decreases, the percentage of l i t e ra tes also

decreases. The temporal pattern shows that l i t e racy is

increasing with e v e r y census per iod , except in class V towns

which show an opposite trend. But the coe f f ic ient of correlation

between ind iv idua l urban center and rate of l i t e racy shows

a v e r y low pos i t i v e re la t ionship . The analysis r evea l s that

the l i t e racy rate is having influence on urban dynamics but the

influence is poor.

There are a few factors responsib le for h igher l eve l

of l i t e racy in the urban centers of h igher s i ze -c lass .

i . Higher the s i ze -c lass , greater the concentration

of learning places such as schools, co l leges , un ive rs i t i es .

i i . Higher the class h i e ra rchy , h igher is the

p robab i l i t y of jobs and hence need for education.

i i i . Highly educated parents also want the i r chi ldren

to get h igher education and natural ly the h igher l e ve l of

educational institutions are ava i l ab l e in h igher o rder urban

centers.

The factor of education thus influences the urban

dynamics.

145

3.3. OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE

Th is section of the chapter t r i es to analyse the

economic ac t i v i t i e s which have made urban centers dist inct from

rural areas . D i f f e rent ac t i v i t i e s have employed vary ing

percentages of peop le in d i f f e rent urban centers . Depending

upon the economic character , urban centers appear spec ia l i zed

or d i v e r s i f i e d . Variat ion in economic character are caused

by d i f f e rent phys ica l , demographic and socio-economic conditions

of the urban centers.

D i f f e rent t ypes of employment opportunit ies o f f e r red

and wide range of poss ib l e earning are charac ter i s t i c features

of the urban environment (Gamier and Chabot, 1967). Here

an attempt has been made to study the above mentioned aspects

through analysing the occupational pattern, .employment and s ize

of urban centers, changes in occupational structure, and fu-

nctional c lass i f i cat ion of urban confers.

3 .3 .1 Def init ion of Occupation

A great v a r i e t y of ac t i v i t i e s are spa t ia l l y d is tr ibuted

o ve r the ( jar th 's surface in rural and urban p laces . There

ac t i v i t i e s engage peop le as an ac t i ve gainful work force and

provide:', the.r.i with the moans of their l i v e l i h o o d . The gainful

ectinomir ; i ( , t ivity not only bring money to the; ac t i ve \.i)rk toree

for mecitiii); the i r basic needs rather p rov ide thorn a social

146

status. Mukherjee and Singh (1954) have def ined occupation

as " the name of the function which a person performs by

engaging himself in that part icular branch of gainful economic

which is h is industry " .

3 .3 .2 Employment and Town Size

Size of the tovm p lays an important ro le in shaping

the character is t ics of urban centers as is ev ident from the table

3.1 1. The maximum percentage of workers to the total

population is noticed in the class I c i t i es , i . e . 35.11 per cent

of total population. I t shows that the large urban centers

encourage the movement of people for better job opportunit ies .

As a result the male adult population increases in high order

urban areas, and the dependency burden goes down. The

situation of dependency burden is reversed in lower order urban

centers. Undoubtly, some of the jobs are res t r i c ted for l i t e rate

person only and due to that a pos i t i v e corre lat ion ( r = 0 .52 '

has been found in coe f f i c i ent of corre lat ion between l i t e racy

and pcrcfint of [jopulation in t e r t ia ry a c t i v i t y . On the other

hand uncmpUiy tnent rate is playing a negat ive ro l e with the

s i ze of the tov/ns, i . e . , the percentage of unemployment

dec:rc!r!si;s as the c i t i es got l a rger . The coe f f i c i ent of

/9 7V

corre lat ion is -0 .2 -0.31 and -0.19 for the year 1961,^ anc

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148

3.3 .3 Basic Occupational Classi f icat ion

The three basic occupational components of an urbar.

center can be stated, as pr imary , secondary and t e r t i a r y .

Eve r y urban center has certain socio-economic character is t ics

resulting from the phys ica l landscape and resources of the

area, which together lead to d i v e r s i f i c a t i on of economic

a c t i v i t i e s and to occupational pattern. The author has accepted

the Indian census' c lass i f icat ion of workers ; which d i v i d e s

the occupations into three basic groups: pr imary , secondary

and t e r t i a ry and further d i v i d e s these into nine industrial

categories (census, 1986):

I - Pr imary sector

1. Cul t ivators ;

2. Agr icultural labourers;

3. L i v e s t ock , f o r es t l y , f ishing, hunting, plantation, orchards

and a l l i ed ac t i v i t i e s ;

4. Mining quarrying;

n - Secondary sector

5. Manufacturing, processing, serv ic ing and repa i rs -

a. Household industry;

b . CKher than household industry;

t). Con;; true I ion;

149

I I I - T e r t i a r y sector

7. Trade and commerce;

8. Transport , storage and communication;

9. Other s e r v i c e s .

3 .3 .4 Urban Occupational Structure

In o rde r to apprec ia te the changing pattern of

occupational structure, three consecutive census (1961, 1974

and 1981) data f o r the occupational structure have been

presented in tab le 3.12. The data shows the percentage of

workers in p r imary , secondary and t e r t i a ry a c t i v i t i e s . Three

separate graphs for the year of 1961, 1974 and 1981 and a map

fo r 1981 has been drawn to show the real p ic ture of pr imary ,

secondary and t e r t i a r y sectors , f o r the se lec ted f o r t y urban

centers. A l l the three graphs ( 3 . 5 l , 3 .S i 8 3 . 7 ) show the

large s i ze urban centers have a h igher percentage of population

in secondary and t e r t i a ry sectors , whereas small urban centers

show a dominance of people in pr imary sector ( t a b l e 3 .11 ) .

P r imary sector

Pr imary sec tor , includes the cu l t i va tors , agricultural

labourers <ind the persons cjngaged in quarry ing , mining,

l ivust( ,ck and f o r e s t r y . It is s igni f icant in Forsha (61.28

per ( i -nt ) ; Lakhmi[Tur (54.11 per cent ) , Mirzapur (41.23 per

ccMit), Fa t ik rhar i (39.99 per cent) and Mir/.aganj (37 .09 ) . Hut

150

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on the other hand the agricultural w o r k e r ' s percentage i s v e r y

low in Dhaka (2.68 per cen t ) ; Khulna (4.69 per cent) and

Sylhet (5.64 per cent ) .

Tab le 3.12: Urban Centers on the Basis of Workers Engaged

in Primary Sector by Size-Class, 1981.

Class Size of Urban Centers

Percentage of workers engaged in Pr imary Ac t i v i t i e s

Total 20 20-40

Very Low low

40-60 Medium

60-80 80-100 High Very

High

I

I I

I I I

IV

V

VI

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0 40

- 0 . 2 8

Tab l e 3.12 shows that class I , c lass I I and class I I I urbar.

centers have v e r y low percentage ( l e s s than 20 per cent) of

workers in pr imary sector . Within the higher c lass on]>

Lakhmipur ((Jlass I I I town) shows a medium percentage ir.

154

pr imary a c t i v i t i e s . Another two urban centers (M i r zapur and

Dora i ) in c lass IV a lso f a l l in the medium t ype , 40 to 60% in

p r imary a c t i v i t y . High dominance (60 to 80 pe r cent ) of

p r imary a c t i v i t y i s found in Porsha town. None of the urban

center , i s in v e r y h i gh (80 to 100 per cent ) ca tegory of

p r imary a c t i v i t y .

Secondary sec tor

Secondary sector comprises

household industry and manufacturing.

of construction,

Tab l e 3.13: Urban Centers on the Bas is of Workers Engaged

in Secondary Sector by s i z e - c l a s s , 1981.

Class s i z e of Urban C a t e r s

20 Very Low

Percentage o f w o r k e r s engaged in the Secondary A c t i v i t i e s

20-40 Low

40-60 Medium

60-80 High

-Total 8 0 - 1 0 0 Very High

I

I I

I I I

IV

V

VI

1

3

1

/

9

11

6

1

Tota l 6 34 Cof j f f i c iunt of ccjrrelation ( r )

8

9

12

9

2

40 3.02

155

There is no town in the medium, h igh and v e r y h igh category

of economic ac t i v i t y ( tab le .3,13). Out of total 40 urban centers

in secondary a c t i v i t y , 6 centers have v e r y low and 34 have

low dominance of secondary a c t i v i t y . But within the low

dominance in 34 urban centers, 7 are class I , 9 class I I , 11

class I I I , 6 class IV and only one in Comilla, shows a low

dominance of secondary a c t i v i t y . Three towns from class IV

category and one c lass V have v e r y low secondary a c t i v i t y .

There i s s igni f icant re lat ionship between s i ze of the^ urban

centers and secondary a c t i v i t y . The coe f f i c ient of correlat ion

i s 0.02 only (Tab le 3 .13 ) .

T e r t i a r y sector

Ter t i a ry sector includes a l l those a c t i v i t i e s which

deal with the co l lect ion, transport and storage of goods and

a l l types of s e r v i c e s . Occupational patterns of 40 urban centers

i s dominated by the t e r t i a ry a c t i v i t y . A large major i ty of

urban centers have more than 50 per cent of the total workers

engaged in the t e r t i a ry a c t i v i t y .

156

Table 3.14: Urban Centers on the Basis of Workers Engaged

in Ter t iary Sector by Size-Class, 1981.

Size class of Urban Centers

Percentage of workers engaged in the Ter t iary Ac t i v i t i e s

20 Very

20-40 Low

40-60 Medium

60-80 High

80-100 Very High

Total

I

I I

I I I

IV

V

VI

2

2

1

1

7

9

7

1

7

2

1

1

9

12

9

2

Total - 5 25

Coef f ic ient of correlation ( r ) =

10 40

0.38"

Significant at 0.05 l e v e l .

Very low and v e r y high dominance of ter t iary ac t i v i t y i s not

observed in any town ( table 3 .14) . Large urban centers are

characterized by larger percentages in t e r t ia ry a c t i v i t y , and

small towns are dominated by low percentages of workers.

Total number of urban center i s 40. Of them 5 low dominance

of ter t iary a c t i v i t y : twc towns are in class I I I , namely -

Lakhmi{)iir and Fat ikchar i , and another two towns in class IV

group Sunamp,anj and Derai, and one in class V town, whicl'

157

i s dominance of low (20-40 pe r cent) percentages of worker .

Again the t e r t i a ry occupations indicates that out of rest 35,25

urban centers have a medium dominance of t e r t i a ry a c t i v i t y

and 10 urban centers have high dominance of t e r t iary a c t i v i t y .

Out of 9 class I I towns, Seven towns have medium and two towns

Tangail and Bogra, have high dominance of t e r t i a ry a c t i v i t y .

Class I c i t y includes 8 urban centers, medium category is

observed in only one (Ba r i sa l ) , 7 c i t i es are included in high

percentages of t e r t ia ry a c t i v i t y . More than 50 per cent urban

centers show a medium dominance of t e r t i a ry a c t i v i t y . It

includes one town from class I , 7 from class I I , 9 from class

I I I , 7 from class IV,and one (Modhupur) from class V category .

A s igni f icant re lat ionship has been found between s i z e of the

town and percentages of workers in t e r t i a ry a c t i v i t y . The

corre lat ion value is 0.35.

3.3.5 Changing Pattern of Urban Occupational Structure

To understand the changes in occupational structure

based on pr imary , secondary and t e r t i a ry sectors data of

the 40 urban centers f o r the year 1961, 1974 and 1981 have

been plotted on t r i l inear graphs ( F i g s . 3 . 5 . , 3 . 6 and 3 . 7 0 •

The t r i l inear graph shows the triangular re lat ionship with the

three working va r i ab l e s , i . e . , p r imary , secondary and ter t iary

a c t i v i t i e s of working population in the selected 40 urban centers

of Bangladesh. Thu graph is competent to focusing the three

158

working va r i ab l e s expressed as percentages adding upto 100

and helps to process and compare the data (Mul ik, 1989).

Tr i l inear graph also he lps to v i sua l i z e the changing pattern

of occupational structure of the towns. Locational position of

urban centers indicate the nat ive character is t ics of occupational

structure. I f the posit ion of a urban centers comes to one of

the apexes of the t r i l inear graph, it indicates that one

component wi th in the occupational structure i s v e r y high (F ig .

3. 8 J. Again, i f the position of the point (urban center) is

near the arm of the t r i l inear graph, i t indicates that the

r espec t i ve component i s v e r y l ow . However , the extreme point

value d istr ibut ion may be shown in f i gure 3 . 8 . For showing

the changing direct ion of occupational strucutre, e v e r y tr i l inear

graph is d i v i d e d into 100 equi latera l tr iangles at 10 per cent

interva l and changing character of urban centers have been

indicated in i t through areal grouping. ' So the ind iv idual group

w i l l represent the nature of occupations, character ist ics of

internal structure and direct ion of urban dynamics.

Locational Ana lys is through Areal Groups 1961: In 1961, identical

groups have been recognized according to sameness of

character is t i cs , where out of the total 40, f i v e urban centers

Porsha, Derai l » Lakhmipur ,Rangamati and Dhaka, cannot be

included in any group. Except Dhaka, other four urban centers

are character ised by a large rural base. Porsha and Derai

are upgraded thana headquarters and Lakhimpur and F<angamati

are new d i s t r i c t headquarters. Dhaka is the capital of

159

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Group IV : This group includes twe l v e medium to small urban

centers and character is t i ca l l y trade and commerce, transport

and miscellaneous se rv i ces or iented. Manikganj, Cox ' s Bazar,

Feni, Netrokona, Gaibandha, Modhupur, Jamalpur, Patuakhali,

Far idpur, I shurd i , Naogaon and Bhola belong to this category .

V^ithin these, Ishurdi , Naogaon, Jamalpur, Faridpur and

Manikganj have dominance of large to small scale industries

including sugarcane, cotton t ex t i l e and other agro-based

industr ies. Cox ' s Bazar has a bas i ca l l y sea-beach dominated

economy based on tours and t rave ls and related occupations.

Group V: Eleven towns have the ir economy based on v e r y close

character is t i cs in industr ial and commercial ac t i v i t i e s . Th is

group is h i gh l y dominated by secondary a c t i v i t i e s . Big c i t i e s -

l i k e Dhaka, Sy lhe t , Comilla, Pabna Jessore and Rangpur are

v e r y wel l recognized industrial ( l a r ge and small) d is t r i c t

headquarters . Dhaka, the capital has specia l ised in jute,

cotton tex t i l e^ , synthet ics , s i lk and handloom industries and

is also an important e l e c t r i c i t y generating centre. A ser ies

of iron and stee l industries, small to medium have also come

up here. These medium to small scale iron and steel industries

support the modern ra i lway , bus and other manufacturing and

assembling centers.

161

Group V : : In this group of towns there i s medium dominance

of both ter t iary and secondary a c t i v i t i e s . It includes Jamalpur,

Ketrokona, Mirzapur, Naogaon and Ishurd i .

Locational Analys is through Area l Groups (1974): In 1974, these

groups declared d i v e r s i f i e d character . Four urban center don ' t

come under any group. These are Lakhraipur, Barguna, Noakhali

and Narsingdi . Lakhnipur however s t i l l has dominance of

pr imary types of occupational but trie rest of the three are

character i zed by both secondary and ter t iary ac t i v i t i es but

d i f f e r between them by considerable va lue.

Group I : It includes only two urban centers, namely-Derai and

Porsha which are highly dominated by pr imary ac t i v i t y . These

urban centers are bas ica l ly rural in character and can v e r y

we l l be cal led urban v i l l a g e s . The i r economy fu l ly based on

agr iculture and agro industr ies.

Group I I : The towns have v e r y high dominance of pr imary

a c t i v i t y with some te r t ia ry character . These towns are

Mirzaganj , Thakurgaon, Bheramara, Meherpur, Mirzapur,

Fat ikchar i , Rangamati, Jenaidha Sherpur. A l l these are

c lass I\' and c l a w V towns.

Group I I I : Only two towns have been grouped and designated

as multifunctional towns. They have no occupational dominance.

These are Muktagacha and Sunamganj.

162

Bangladesh and there i s dominance of secondary and ter t iary

a c t i v i t i e s .

Group I : F i rs t group includes Thakurgaon, Meherpur Fat ikchari

Sherpur and Bheramara. In these, there i s a high dominance

of both pr imary and t e r t i a ry a c t i v i t i e s »

Group I I : Six towns' , namely- Jhenaidh, Feni, Manikganj,

Muktagacha, Sunamganj, and Barguna, show a medium dominance

of pr imary a c t i v i t i e s . Here the economy is rural serv i ce

based.

Group I I I : It includes, Cox ' s Bazar, Modhupur, Bhola and

Mirzaganj . Th is group is pa r t i a l l y dominated by Ter t iary

a c t i v i t y . But secondary and t e r t i a ry influence also p r eva i l s in

these urban centers.

Group rV: It is par t i a l l y incl ined towards secondary a c t i v i t y ,

but bas ica l ly i t has agriculture based economy. This group

includes f i f teen urban centers namely-Gaibandha, Patuakhall,

Noakhali , Faridpur , Tangai l , Bogra, Comil la, Rangpur, Dinajpur,

Sy lhet , Narsingdi , Bar isa l , Jessore, Pabna, and Khulna. These

were the towns with a potential to sh i f t the i r economy from

agriculture to manufacturing. These are mostly old d is t r i c t

headquarters except (jaibandha , Gaibandha is a new d is t r i c t

headquarter with the dominance of primary a c t i v i t y .

163

Locational Ana lys is through Area l Group (1981) : In 1981, urban

centers are c lass i f i ed into . f i v e major groups with four isolated

urban centers. Among the four isolated urban centers, Dhaka

is heav i l y biased towards secondary a c t i v i t y and also inclined

towards l e r t i a r y a c t i v i t y . Di f ferent government,

seni-go\ 'emDent, autonmous corporation and other pr i va te

organization have g iven a multidimensional character to t e r t ia ry

a c t i v i t y . On the other hand, heavy to small scale industries

are functionLng with s i zeab le of workers in the secondary

sector . Comilla i s another c i t y , v^here both secondary and

t e r t i a ry a c t i v i t i e s are wel l deve l oped . But Lakhmipur and

Mirzaganj are s t i l l dominance by pr imary ac t i v i t i e s .

Group I : Six towns are included in this group. A l l of these

are character ized by primary a c t i v i t y . It includes, Derai,

Mirzapur, Fat ikchar i , Bheramara, Mirzaganj, and Sherpur.

Towns of this group are inclined towards t e r t i a ry a c t i v i t y .

But basic occupational structure is pr imary a c t i v i t y .

Group I I : Th is group is categorised by multi-functional

character . The signs of pr imary ac t i v i t y are p reva i l ing , but

medium docinance of secondary and t e r t i a ry a c t i v i t i e s i s also

there . It includes ten urban centers, namely - Naogaon,

Manikganj, Thakurgaon, Sunamganj, Muktagacha, Meherpur,

Jhe.aaidh, Netrokona, Ishardi and Barguna. .Most of these are

c lose ly Ic ;ated in the center of the tr iangle ( F i g . 3 . 7 ) . Most

of thom are newly recognized d i s t r i c t headquarters, except

164

Muktagacha, and Ishurdi . These two are more inclined towards

t e r t i a ry and secondary a c t i v i t i e s .

Group I I I : A medium dominance of t e r t i a ry and secondary

ac t i v i t i e s are associated with Patuakhal i , Feni, Noakhali, Cox ' s

Bazar, and Narsingdi town. C o x ' s Bazar is famous for tourism

industry and based on that a number of shel l and other cottage

industries have deve loped g iv ing the city a dominance of tert-

a ry to secondary a c t i v i t i e s . Others are administration based hence

te r t ia ry a c t i v i t y dominance is there .

Group IV: A medium to high dominance of ter t iary ac t i v i t y

i s found in this group. The towns in the group are Modhupur,

Jamalpur, Ishurdi and Bhola towns.

Group V: This group includes a large number of urban centers

where secondary a c t i v i t y i s the a c t i v e and ter t iary a c t i v i t y

i s the pass i ve occupation. Th is group includes al l c lasses of

urban centers. There were only 13 c i t i es in Bangaldesh in

1981 census, out of which seven are in this group and a l l have

a dominance of secondary a c t i v i t y but also have a part ial

inclination towards t e r t i a ry a c t i v i t i e s . Khulna is character ized

by the Pulp, Paper and Board industr ies . It has, there fore ,

daninonce of secondary ac t i v i t i e s and then of t e r t ia ry a c t i v i t i e s .

165

3 - 3 . 6 Changing Features in Occupational Structure

The occupational structure f o r the year of 1961, 1974

and 1981 can be v isua l i zed through comparative study with the

he lp of t r i l inear graphs in F igs . 3.5:, and 3 . 6 r e spec t i v e l y .

Salient features of the comparat ive situation of occupation

structure are g iven below:

i . The comparat ive study shows that there is a

considerable magnitude of change in the occupational structure

in a l l types of urban centers, spec i a l l y , f i r s t , second and third

c lass urban centers.

i i . In 1961, v e r y high pr imary a c t i v i t y had been

found in Rangamati, Lakhmipur, Thakurgaon Derai, and Porsha.

These urban centers were bas ica l l y rural in character but they

have upgraded from thana headquarter to upazila (Derai and

Porsha) and subdiv is ional headquarter to new d is t r i c t

headquarter status (Thakurganj , Rangamati and Lakhmipur) in

1981 census. A l l of these towns, there fo re , are now in the

take-o f f stage of urbanization. So, the rate of change in

occupational structure i s though s low, but v e r y much there,

i . e . , from priamry to secondary or t e r t ia ry or both.

i i i . Meherpur, Fat ikchar i , Bheramara Naoganj,

Sherpur, Mirzaganj, Mirzapur and Sunamganj have not changed

the i r occupational structure and remained stat ic in the primary

medium category .

166

i v . Some of the urban centers had medium dominance

of pr imary a c t i v i t i e s in 1961 and they remained static in

pr imary sector upto 1974 and s l i gh t l y improved the position

towards t e r t i a ry ac t i v i t y in 1981. These are Muktagacha,

Gaibandha and Jhenaidh towns.

V. Another notable feature of occupational structure

i s that the some of urban centers were in the medium category

of pr imary a c t i v i t y in 1961, which s l i g h t l y declined in 1981

but the secondary ac t i v i t y posit ion was s ta t i c . The rate of

change was high in t e r t i a ry sector . The towns in this category

are Tangail, Manikganj, Narsingdi , Netrokona, Modhupur,

Patuakhali and Ishurdi towns. Except Patuakhali , a l l the urban

centers are in c lose prox imi ty to c lass I c i t i es namely Dhaka

and Mymensingh.

v i . In pr imary occupation, a medium dominance ( in

1961) to low dominance ( in 1981) and medium to high dominance

has been iden t i f i ed in t e r t ia ry a c t i v i t y in s ix urban centers,

namely-Jamalpur, Noakhali , C o x ' s Bazar, Feni , Borguna, Bogra

and Far idpur.

v i i . Dhaka, Comil la, Sylhet , Khulna, Bar isa l , Jessore,

Dinajpur, Fabna and Rangpur have e xh ib i t ed a low to medium

chanse in secondary a c t i v i t i e s and medium to high rate of

pos i t i v e change in ter t iary occupational structure.

167

v i i i . The nev. upgraded thana l e v e l urban centers

have been transfering their degree of urbanization and changing

the growth rate a moderate percentage [ t ab l e 3 .1 ) but the

shiftment of working population is not so s igni f icant in primary

to secondary and/or ter t iary a c t i v i i i e s . The working population

in secondary sector had been found static but change had been

observed in t e r t i a ry sector, which has been caused by the

establishment of new o f f i c e s in new upazi la and the new

d i s t r i c t s . People are migrating from higher o rders . So the

seconary sector i s not playing a v i t a l ro le in urban dynamics,

and due to that a fa lse urbanization is occurring in the class-

IV, V and VI categorised urban centers . Due to change of

de f in i t ion of urban centers. The total number of people in

pr imary sector is increasing.

i x . A v e r y close s imi la r i t y has been observed with

the population s i z e in urban centers and share of tert iary

population. But a v e r y low pos i t i v e re lat ionship with secondary

sector has been found. On the other hand, pr imary occupation

sho\/s a r eve rse re lat ionship.

X. A c lear indication i s there that the v e r y high

dominance in pr imary sector is gradual ly decreasing.

x i . The dominance of both t e r t i a ry and secondary

sectors are gradually increasing and these w i l l help to develop

the trade and comr.erce, transportation and communication^ and

168

large and small industr ies for economic and ove r al l development

in Bangladesh,

3.4 FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION OF URBAN CENTERS

Urban centers d i f f e r a great deal in this character .

People are rating them according to a sub jec t i ve , intangible

factor cal led qual i ty (Murphy, 1966), There fore there are number

of ways and c r i t e r ia on the bases of which they can be

c l ass i f i ed , l i k e - s i z e , s i t e , age, qua l i ty of l i f e , function e t c .

But, in order to understand the nature of an urban center v i s -

a - v i s socio-economic status, a functional c lass i f icat ion i s v e r y

essent ia l .

3 .4 .1 Method App l i ed f o r Functional Class i f icat ion f o r Urban

Csnters

Ne lson 's method"^ of standard deviat ion has been

appl ied in the functional c lass i f i ca t ion of se lected 40 urban

centers of Bangladesh f o r the years 1961 and 1981. In the

appl icat ion of method, the standard dev iat ions ( S . D . ) from the

mean percentage of workers were considered signi f icant f o r

comparing the functional character of indiv idual urban centers.

Urban centers with mean plus one standard dev iat ion values

For deta i l of Ne lson 's Method, p lease r e f e r to-Nelson, H.J . ( 1955), "A Serv ice Class i f icat ion of American C i t i e s " , Economic Geography, Vol . 31 (3 ) , pp . 189-210.

169

in an a c t i v i t i e s were designated as SD^ towns in that a c t i v i t y ,

those wi th mean plus two standard dev iat ion values were SD2

towns and the tov/ns where mean plus three standard dev iat ion

values obtained were designated SD^ towns. In this way, the

rating of urban centers served as an indicator of the r e l a t i v e

spec ia l isat ion of a town. A comparat ive analysis of changes

in the seven categories can be noted in the tables 3.15 and

3.16 r e s p e c t i v e l y for the years of 1961 and 1981, v/here the

mean and S.D. values for agr icultural a c t i v i t y , household

industry , manufacturing, construction^ trade and commerce,

transport, storage and communication and other s e r v i c es are

presented.

Based on Nelson's method, standard dev iat ion for

seven categor ies of ac t i v i t i e s for the selected urban centers

of Bangaldesh for the years 1961 and 1981 were calculated

( t ab l es 3.17 and 3 .18) . The notations in the table are :

Ag . = Agricultural A c t i v i t y

HI = Household Industry

Mnf. = Manufacturing (other than household industry )

Cons. = Construction

TC = Trade and Commerce

TSC = Transport , Storage and Communication

OS = Other Serv ices

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Tab le 3.17 : Functional Class i f icat ion of Urban Centers

METHOD), (1961)

172

t^ELSON'S

SI .No . Name of Urban Center

Functional Classi f icat ion

1. Dhaka 1 Mnf.2, 1 cont.3, 2TC1, 3TC2, 90S. 2. Faridpur I I H T , 2 Mnf . , 6TC, ITSCl , 11.OS. 3. Tangail I H T l , 8TC, lOSl. 4. Jamalpur lOAg . , 14HI, 12 Mnf. 5. Manikganj 3 A g . , 14HI, 12 Mnf. , 6. Narsingdi lOHI, 5 Mnf. , 1 Conf. , 1TC2. 7. Muktagacha 3Ag . , 7HI, 9 Mnf . , 2TC. 8. Netrokona 6TC1, 1205 9. Madhupur 7Ag . , 130S. 10. Mirzapur 3TC1, 2TSC1, 2081. 11. Comilla 13HI, 10 Mnf . , 1 Conf. , 7TC, 4TSc, lOS. 12. Sylhet 9HI, 7 Mnf. , 3 Con f . l , lOTC, 20S. 13. Noakhali 3HI, 60S1. 14. Rangamati 14Ag., 2HI2. 15. Cox ' s Bazar 2HI1, 4 Cont., 9TSc. 16. Feni 2Ag. , 1HI2. 17. Lakhmipur l A g . 1, 2HI, 11 Mnf. , 508. 18. Sunamganj l A g . 1, 2HI, 11 Mnf. , 508. 19. Fat ikchar i 15Ag. , 3081. 20. Derai l A g . , 2. 21. Khulna 3HI, 3 Mn f . l , 2 Cont., 1, 4TC1, 3T8C1. 22. Barisal 5Mnf . l , 6 Cont., 3TC, I TSC l . 23. Jessore I M n f . l , 2 Cont., 5TC1, 2TC2. 24. Fatuakhali 3Mnf., 12TC, 60S. 25. Bhola 5Ag . , 5TC, ITSC, 4081. 26. Barguna 4Mnf. 1. 27. Meherpur 12Ag. , 6HI, 308. 28. Jhenaidh 4Ag . , 15HI, 14Mnf., 2TSC. 29. Bheramara 9Ag . , 6Mnf., 8T8C, 408. 30. Mirzaganj 6Ag . , 2HI, 508. 31. Bogra 8HI, IMnf . , 1 Cont. 2, I TC , 5T8C, 1508. 32. Dinajpur 6Mnf . l , 5 Cont., 9TC, 6T8C. 33. Pabna 12HI, 13Mnf. I T C l , 7TSC. 34. Rangpur 2Mnf. 1, 3 Cont. , 808. 35. Naogaon 8Mnf. , 1082. 36. Sherpur 11Ag. , 5HI. 37. Thakurgaon 13 Ag. 38. Gaibandha 4HI, 4Mnf., 4TC, 140S. 39. Ishurdi 3TSC2, 1608. 40. Forsha l A g . 3.

N'oto: For abbrev iat ions, plejase r e f e r to the text , P.i£)First f igure of the notation indicates the rank in econonic ac t i v i t y and second f igure shows i t ' s functional spec ia l i zat ion with the help of mean plus standard dev ia t ion .

173 Table 3.18: Functional Classification of Urban Centers (NELSON'S

METHOD), 1981.

SI .No. Name of Urban Functional Classi f icat ion Center

1. Dhaka SMnf . l , 8Cont . l , 3TC1, 6TSC. 2. Far idpur 4HI, 2Mnf . l , 7TSC, 1008. 3. Tangail 4HI, BCont. 2TC1, 4TSC1, 90S. 4. Jamalpur 3Ag. , 8Cont. 8TC, 120S. 5. Manikganj lOAg . , 13Cont,, 3TSc. 6. Narsingdi 6Mnf . l , I I T C , 2TSC. 7. Muktagacha 8Ag. , 5HI1, 70S. 8. Netrokona 6Ag. , 20S1. 9. Madhupur 2Ag. , 2HI2, 20S2. 10. Mirzapur 2 A g . , l , 5TC, 2TSC. 11. Comilla l l C o n t . , 4TC, 7TSC1, 170S. 12. Sylhet 7Mnf. , 2Cont. 1, 6TC1, 5TSC. 13. Noakhali 12Mnf . l , 2Cont., 3TC, 505. 14. Rangamati 1HI2, 4TSC, 10S2. 15. Cox ' s Bazar 6HI1, IMnf . , 9Cont., I T C l , I I T C . 16. Feni 3HI1, 2Mnf., lOCont., 1505. 17. Lakhmipur 4 A g . l , 6HI, 3 Cont. 18. Sunamganj 2Ag. 1 Mn f . l , 12 Cont. 19. Fat ikchar i l A g . l , 3HI, 1105. 20. Derai 2Ag. 2. 21. Khulna IMnf .2 , ICon t . l , 9TC, 9TSC. 22. Bar isal 9Mnf. , 4Cont. l , 6TC, 5TSc, 80S. 23. Jessore 3Mnf . l , 7Cont . , l . 12 TC, ITSC. 24. Patuakhali 6Mnf., 4TC, 305. 25. Bhola 15TC, 1305. 26. Barguna l A g . , 11 Mnf. , 4 Cont., 205. 27. Meherpur 9Ag. , IHI , 1605. 28. Jhanaidh 5Ag. , lOMnf. , 5Cont. l , 7TC, lOTSC. 29. Bheramara 14Ag. , ITSC. 30. Mirzaganj 3 A g . l , 2HI1, 105. 31. Bogra 2HI, 5Cont., lOTC, 3T5C, 1405. 32. Dinajpur 4Mnf. 1, 3Cont., 14TC, 6TSC. 33. Pabna 7Cont., 6TC, 12 T5C. 34. Rangpur 3Mnf. , 5 Cont . l , 13 TC, 8T5C, 405. 35. Naogaon 12Ag. , 5Mnf., 2TC, 505. 36. Sherpur 13Ag. , I H I l , lOSl . 37. Thakurgaon l l A g . , 8Mnf. 38. Gaibandha 4Ag. , SHI, 4Mnf. , I TC . 39. Ishurdi ICont . , 16TC, ITSC. 40. Porsha l A g . 2.

Note: For abbrev iat ions, p lease r e f e r to the text , P . ioF irs t f igure of the notation indicates the rank in economic ac t i v i t y and second f igure shows i t ' s functional specia l izat ion with the help of mean plus standard dev ia t i o in .

174

The numbers preceding abbrev ia t ions indicate the rank

of urban centers, within the r e s p e c t i v e standard dev ia t ion .

The numbers fo l lowing abbrev iat ions are standard dev iat ion

values indicating intensity of spec ia l i zat ion of r espec t i v e

a c t i v i t y for the part icular urban center.

Dhaka 5 Mnf^

The above i l lustrat ion indicates that the Dhaka has

been ranked 5th in manufacturing a c t i v i t y and i t s functional

spec ia l i zat ion i s mean plus one standard deviat ion ( tab les 3.17

and 3 .18) .

As ev ident from the tab le 3.15 mean and standard

dev iat ion value of agricultural a c t i v i t y for the year 1961 was

31.41 and 14.42 r e spec t i v e l y . The f igure decreased by a

considerable amount in 1981. The f igures are 23.46 and 15.17

fo r the mean and S.D. r e s p e c t i v e l y . A v e r y high rate of

decrease has been observed in the household industry in 1981.

The values f o r manufacturing are 1981 but the corresponding

f igures were 15.52 and 6.46 for the year 1961. Here a l i t t l e

increase has been exper ienced. A pos i t i v e change is also found

in the construction a c t i v i t y , the mean and S.D. were 2.36 and

1.28 r e spec t i v e l y for the year of 1961. On the other hand

the value were 4.10 and 2.19 for the same stat is t ica l dev i c e

in 1981. A v e r y high rate of increase in value was observed

175

in trade and commerce. The values 22.97 and 7.28 fo r mean

and S.D. in 1961 for other se rv i ces , whereas the corresponding

f i gures were 23.64 and 6.53 fo r the yea r of 1981. The

transport, storage and communication shows pos i t i v e gain (tables

3.17 and 3 .18) .

3.4.2 Functional Categories of Urban Centers

Functional categor ies have been made fo r the two

dist inct per iods 1961 and 1981. The analys is is based on the

dominancy of a c t i v i t i e s , d i v e r s i f i e d character and the i r changing

pattern.

Agricultural Activity: The table 3.17 shows, 18 urban centers

with dominance in agricultural a c t i v i t y . Amongst them, 15 towns

are only above mean, and next e v e r y steps i . e . mean plus one

standard dev iat ion, mean plus two standard dev iat ion and mean

plus three standard dev iat ion have been secured one urban

centers in each category . The range of above mean is 32.17

to 84.42 per cent. F i f t y per cent urban centers had an above

mean l e ve l in 1981. The dominance of agricultural ac t i v i t y

remained constant for Derai and Porsha towns. Three urban

centers (Bhola, Rangamati and Feni ) lost the i r dominance in

agricultural a c t i v i t y , on the other hand f i v e new towns acquired

the dominance in agricultural a c t i v i t y in the year 1981. These

are Netrokona, Mirzapur, Barguna, Kaogaon and Gaibandha. In

176

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general, the percentage of workers in agricultural a c t i v i t y shows

a considerable decrease in- the year 1981. The intensity of

specia l izat ion and ranking of the towns is shown in tables 3.17

;;nd 3.18 and depic ted in f i g s . 3 . 9 and 3.10 for the years 1961 and

1981 r e spec t i v e l y .

Household Industry : F i f t y per cent or 20 towns of the total

are recognized as household industry dominance towns according

to standard dev iat ion computations. The f igure decreased to

13 (35 per cent) towns in 1981. The dominance in household

industry was found in Far idpur , Tangai l , Manikganj, Narsindi,

Muktagacha, Comil la, Sy lhet , Noakhali , Rangamati, C o x ' s Bazar,

Feni, Sunamganj, Khulna, Meherpur, Jhenaidh, Mirzaganj, Bogra,

Fabna, Sherpur, and Thakurgaon, towns in 1961. The f i r s t

ranking twon Rangamati has 22.77 per cent workers in household

industry and least ranking Mirzaganj has 11.52 per cent

workers . In 1981, ten towns, Manikganj, Narsingdi , Comilla,

Sylhet , Noakhali , Sunamganj, Fa t i ckcher i , Khulna, Jhenaidh and

Fabna have dropped the i r posit ion in this category('"'•>'3.11 and

3 .12) . Rangamati has lost i t s f i r s t rank and went down to

second posit ion and Modhupur secured f i r s t posit ion with 11.15

per cent workers in household industry . But the overa l l

percentage of workers in this ac t i v i t y has been reduced to 4.45

per cent. The lowest ranking town is Meherpur with only 4.79

per cent workers in household industry in 1981.

178

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179

Manvifacturing Activity: No absolute dominance in manufacturing

has been observed in the .year 1961. Twenty one towns show

the dominancy through the above mean l e v e l of workers in

this a c t i v i t y . Only one urban center (Dhaka SMA) shovifs mean

plus two S.D. in manufacturing in 1961. Another s i x urban

centers Khulna, Bar isa l , Jessore, Barguna, Dira jpur and Rangur

have been found mean plus one S.D. in th is a c t i v i t y in 1961.

There was a small increase in the year 1981.. The range between

lowest and highest was 16.14 to 30.17 in the yea r 1961 but

the corresponding range is 18.34 to 31.75 for the year 1981.

Khulna had the maximum dominance with mean plus two S.D.

workers in manufacturing a c t i v i t y . However , the ove ra l l

percentage of workers in manufacturing has increased to some

extent in 1981. Figures 3.13 and 3.14 dep ic t the changing

situation in the mean and S.D. status for the years 1961 and

1981 r e s p e c t i v e l y .

Construction Activity: The dominance of construction ac t i v i t y

has been observed in 11 urban centers during the year 1961.

1. Dhaka (6 .64 ) , 2. Bogra ( 5 .01 ) , 3. Sylhet ( 4 . 36 ) , 4. Khulna

( 3 .81 ) , 5. Narsingdi ( 3 . 9 4 ) _ , 6. Bar ise l ( 3 . 57 ) , 7. Dinajpur

(3 .53 ) , 8. Cox ' s bazar (3 .52 ) , 9. Rangpur (3 .34 ) , 10. Jessore

(3 .29) and 11. Comilla ( 3 .07 ) . In 1981 e leven new towns have

been added in th is category, namely - Tangai l , Jamalpur,

Manikganj, Naokhali , Feni, Lakhmipur, Sunamganj, Jhenaidh,

Mirzaganj , Fabna and » Ishurdi but one center (Na r s i gd i ) has

180

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dropped her pos i t ion. A v e r y h igh dominance of construction

ac t i v i t y has increased the mean from 2.36 to 4.10. The f igures

3.15 and 3 . i 6 dep ic t the changing situation in construction

a c t i v i t y .

Trade and Commerce Activity: Trade and commerce seems to

go with manufacturing and other t e r t i a r y a c t i v i t i e s . Figure

3.17 shows the urban centers with dominance in trade and

commerce i i l961. There are ninteen towns with special isat ion

in this a c t i v i t y and the i r ranking can be seen in table 3.17.

Narsingdi can be recognized as v e r y high dominance (mean plus

two S .D . ) in trade and commerce a c t i v i t y . The above mean

i s ranging between 13.68 to 23.95 pe r cent, in 1961, whereas

the f igures were 20.69 to 35.97 for the year 1981. I t shows

a considerable amount of increase in the workers in trade and

commerce. Three new urban centers have been added in this

category in 1981 (F igure 3 .18 ) .

Transport, Storage and Communication Activity: Fi f teen urban

centers had dominance in transport storage and communication

a c t i v i t y with Ishurdi (9.86 per cent) and Bhola (3.78 per cent)

as the highest and lowest ranking urban centers f o r the year

1961. The corresponding f igures were 11.58 (Jessore ) and 6.16

(Bheramara) for the year 1981. On the other hand, f i v e new

urban centers have been added to the ea r l i e r f i f t een in this

category of dominance in transport , storage and communication.

184

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The situation for the years 1961 and 1981 i s shown in f i g s .

3.19 and 3.20.

Other Se r v i c es : More or less stat ic condition has been

observed in other s e r v i c e s for the years 1961-81. High

dominance has been found in twenty three urban centers in 1961

including two major urban centers (Dhaka and Khulna). Total

of e ight urban centers lost the i r posi t ion, whereas new f i v e

towns have been added in the other s e r v i c es . It can be noted

that only one tovm (Naogaon) v;as found in mean plus two S.D.

in 1961 but the position s l i gh t l y improved in 1981 a f ter addit ion

of another two urban centers namely Modhupur and Rangamati.

Naogaon exper ienced decrease in her posit in from mean plus

two S.D. to mean plus zero S.D. status in 1981. The ove ra l l

f l uc tua t i on is depicted in f igures 3.21 and 3.22 for the years

1961 and 1981 r e spec t i v e l y .

However , the o v e r a l l situation indicates that workers

are shi f t ing the i r a c t i v i t i e s from agricultural and household

industry to manufacturing, construction, trade and commerce,

and transport, storage and communications for h igher order urban

centers l i ke Dhaka, Khulna, Sy lhet , Pabna, Rangpur, Jessore,

Barisal , Commila etc . The comparat ive analys is of 1961 and

1981 stat is t ics c lear ly r evea l s that in the small urban centers

there is a shi f t of workers from pr imary to t e r t i a ry ac t i v i t y ,

spec i a l l y other se rv i ces . *This i s barne by the two new small

187

towns Borguna and Sherpur which appeared wi th high dominance

in other s e r v i c e s in 1981. These two centers were high

dominance in pr imary ac t i v i t y in the y ea r 1961.

According to 1961 c lass i f i ca t ion of urban centers, 4

towns were mono-functional in character , 9 centers were

dominated by two functions, 9 towns by three functions, 12

towns v/ith four functions, 3 towns w i th f i v e functions and rest

3 towns were functioning with s ix functions and thus can be cal led

as d i v e r s i f i e d in nature. But this functional association has

changed considerably in the year 1981. Two towns have been

ident i f i ed as a mono-functional in 1981, 4 were dominated by

two functions, 15 by three functions, 13 by four functions, s ix

by f i v e functions. Not a s ingle urban centers has been

ident i f i ed beyond the f i v e functions in 1981.

188

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Chapin, S.J . and Stewart, P .H. (1959) , "Population Densities around the c l ock " , Reading in Urban Geography, ( e d ) by Mayer and Kohn, Chicago, pp . 180-182.

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Duncan, Otis, D. and A lber t J. Reiss (1956), "Social Characteristics of Urban and Rusal Communities, New York , John Wiley and Sons, pp . 12-16.

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Gamier , J .B. and Chabot, G. (1967). Urban Geography, Longmans, London, p. 385.

Garrison, Will iam L . (1956), Some confusing Aspects of Common Measurements", The Professional Geographer, Vol . V I I I ( l ) , pp. 4-5.

Gist, Noel P , and L . A . Halbert (1933), Urban Sociology, New York , p . 18.

Gist, N . P . and Hoyt, H. (1954) , Urban Sociology, New York , p. 8.

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190

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McKenzie, R.D. (1934), Readings in Human Ecology, Chicago, pp. 44-45.

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191

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CHAPTER - IV

FACTORIAL ECOLOGY OF URBAN DYNAMICS

The study in the , prev ious chapters of urban centers

in Bangladesh, he lped to se lect the var iab l es in relation to

urban dynamics. In this chapter an attempt has been made to

i d en t i f y the nature and magnitude of urban dynamics in relation

to time pe rspec t i v e . The main e f f o r t of the present study is

urban dynamics analysis through factor ia l ecology i . e .

ident i f i cat ion of strong var iab l es , and secondly , the identi f icat ion

of the magnitude of urban dynamics.

'Urban' i s mult i -character in nature, so i t becomes

necessary to know as to what are basic eco log ica l d i f ferences

that ex is t among the urban centers? What are the main factors

of urban system change? A w ide number of corre lates arc

demographic and socio-economic. Questions regarding the

s igni f icance of var ious fac tors may be r e so l v ed by the

appl icat ion of the fac tor ia l ecology techniques in urban analysis.

However , the main purpose of the present investigation

i s to get more insight the mechanism of urban dynamics, which

manifests i t se l f as processes of urban growth or dec l ine. The

prev ious chapters assumes that urban d^Tiamics spr ings pr imar i ly

193

from changes in technology, social system economic conditions,

and demography. The phi losophy i s that the changing nature

and magnitude of urban dynamics can be iden t i f i ed with the help

of factor ia l eco logy . Factor ial eco logy i s the term now used

to character ize studies involv ing the application of factor

analysis to ecological study. However, the present study has

appl ied Pr inc ipa l Components Analys is ( P C A ) , which i s more or

less on the same pr incipal as factor analys is .

To iden t i f y the strong var iab les in urban dynamics

study for the per iod 1961, 1974, and 1981 in every cases the

same var iab l es have been considered f o r 40 selected urban

centers. Twenty seven va r i ab l e s have been chosen f o r measuring

the nature and magnitude of urban dynamics in 1961-1981 per iod .

Use of certain other var iab les has been hamper^ed for

nonavai lab i l i ty of data and the l imitat ion of the computer

programme, where, the number of va r i ab l e s should not exceed

the number of observation (urban cen te r ) . In e ve ry case,

correlat ion matrices of the working va r i ab l e s have been computed

with mxm dimensions (see methodology in chap t e r - I ) , which

explains the re lat ionship of one va r i ab l e with the other . From

this mxm matrix another matrix of equal dimensions has been

computed which shows the re lat ionship of a l l the var iab les with

d i f f e rent fac tors . Along with this matr ix , factor loading of

rotated factors , eigenvalues, cummulative percentages of eigen

value's and communality have been computed.

194

4.1 FACTORIAL ECOLOGY: CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF 40

URBAN CENTERS

A comparative position of 40 urban centers at three

points of time, in tab le 4.1, indicates a genera l ly static position

in the ecolog ical dimension in 1961, 1974, and 1981. The table

has incorporated the factors and per cent of total variance

explained by each factor in the cross-sect ional analysis of

three time per iods . A number of environmental dimoisions have

changed during the last three census per iods . ' However, a br ie f

discussion may be focused in three cross-sect ional point of v iew

rather than longitudinal analys is .

It is v e r y c lear from the table 4.1 that there is almost

no change in ov^eral l ecological conditions in last three decades.

In both 1961 and 1981, the high urbanization dimension

summarizes the largest proport ional of the total var iance, thereby

attesting to the fundamental importance of this factor in

describing the changing structure of urban dynamics of the 40

urban centers of Bangaldesh. In contrast to the ove ra l l situation,

there i s some invariance noticeable in the per iod under study.

The t e r r i t o r i a l stress factor shows a decrease in importance

between 1961 and 1974, whi le the urban amenities and high

economic urbanization factor increased in importance in the same

period but again lost the importance in 1981. Demographic and

economic attr ibutes of urbanization indicate a v e r y l i t t l e change

from 1961 to 1981.

195

Table 4.1: Ecological Structure of 40 selected urban centers:

1961, 1974 and 1981

Factors Per cent of total variance explained

1961 1974 1981

1. High Urbanization

2. Te r r i t o r i a l stress and

Housing condition

3. Demographic Attr ibutes

of urbanization

4. Urban Amenities and

High Economic Urbanization

5. Deurbanization

6. Demographic deurbanization

26.60 26.50

19.90 10.10

16 .00

7.20 25.50

17.90

15.50

17.10

1 6 . 0 0

Per cent of total variance

explained by four factors

in 1961 and 1974, and three

factors in 1981.

196

A large proport ion of the total variance of many

var iab les is accounted for by the four factors in 1961 namely high

urbanization, t e r r i t o r i a l s tress , demographic attributes, and urban

amenities. In 1974 the four fac tors which explain the total

variance are , t e r r i t o r i a l s tress , urban amenities, deurbanization

and demographic deurbanization. in 1981 only three factors^ high

urbanization, demographic attr ibutes and urban amenities explain

the variance. In all cases sex'enty per cent of the total variance

is explained for about f i f t y per cent of the var iab les . A

markedly s imi lar value has been observed in a l l the three cross-

sectional communalitics of the v a r i a b l e s . The observation is

confirmed by the coe f f i c i ent of congruence of two sets of thre-.-

groups communalities, i . e . , 0.520 (1961-1974), 0.511 (1961-1981)

and 0.539 (1974-1981). The va r i ab l e s which have high

communalities include these measuring demographic structure,

economic attr ibutes, urban amenities, housing conditions and

materials. on the other hand, va r i ab l e s least wel l accounted for

by the factor structure includes the c i v i c l i f e amenities l ike-park

and playground, street l i gh t , m i d - l e v e l educational institution.

communality is the sum of squared factor loadings for each

va r i ab l es .

197

4.2 ECOLOGY OF URBAN CENTERS OF BANGLADESH: CROSS

SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS OF

VARIATIONS (SELECTION OF STRONG VARIABLES), 1961

By appl icat ion of pr inc ipa l components analysis, where

normal var imax rotation of a l l factors with eigen-values exceeding

2.0 was used to analyze the 40 urban centersX39 var iab les data

matrix, was prepared . An indiv idual value has been found fo r

each va r i ab l es . Where 39x39 corre lat ion matrix R^ (appendix-

4. 1) , factor loadings for four factors ( tab le 4 .2 ) , and eigenvalues

have extracted. The four factors reproduced 69.60 per cent of

the total variance ( r es t 30.40 per cent of the total variance is

explained by the other twenty six f a c t o r s ) , and orthogonal factor

scores or each urban center has been presented in table - 4 . 3 .

The computed eigen\-alues denote that the f i r s t four factors are

important and influence the ove ra l l p r o f i l e of urban environment

for the year 1961. Percentage of var iance explained by each

factor has decreased in a descending o rde r . Variables which

show a high loading { + 0.50 and above ) in table 4.2 and appendix

- 5.1 with 4 factors are designated as strong var iab l es in urban

dynamics. The factor loadings measure the association of the

or ig inal var iab les with each factor and may va ry between + 1 . 0

and -1 .0 , the extremes of per fect correlation amongs the

va r i ab l es . Converseh' , zero factor loading indicates no association

between that va r i ab l e and corresponding fac tor .

Tublo A.2: SIroiiB Vurlubloa 1!)(>1 l a o

SI. No.

Notations Factor - I Factor II Factor I I I Factor IV

High UrbQ'.ilzatlon Te r r i t o r i a l Stress and Housing Condition

Oomogroplilc and Urban Amenities Economic A t t r i b utes of Urbanization Communality

1 . TOPPOPULATION 0.956 .1.117 0.033 0.002 0.929

2. DEGURBANIZAT 0.882 0.348 0.086 0.003 0.907 3. MEDIANAGE 0.269 -0.055 0.803 -0.140 0.740 4. FOPGROWTHRAT 0.320 -0.306 0.671 -0.242 0.706 4. POPULDENSITY 0.215 0.758 -0.027 0.031 0.623 R. nEPENDKRATIO -n .326 -0..509 -0.562 0.215 0.727 7. NETMIGRATION 0.353 -0.178 0.761 -0.205 0.77U 8. SEXRATIO -0.303 0.034 -0.509 -0.261 0.419

9. AREA 0.944 0.006 0.087 -0.005 0.899 10. AREACIIANGE 0.004 0.058 0.053 0.909 0.040 11. POSTOFFICE -0.057 0.502 0.226 0.541 0.685 12. GOVERNOFFICE 0.844 0.398 0.201 0.119 0.924 13. PARKPLAYGROU 0.085 0.534 -0.076 0.144 0.318 14. CINliMAHALL 0.251 0.657 0 .096 -0.011 0.503 15. NEWSPAPERCIR 0.476 0.662 0.311 0.131 0.777 IB. STREF.TMGHT -0.011 0.078 0.532 0.193 0.326

17. IIOHI'ITAI.HMU 0.5()(i U.369 0.570 0.135 0.736 18. RANK 0.182 0.543 0.270 0.179 0.433 19. UUS 0.947 -0.007 0.047 -0.029 0.900 20. FPCfiMCWC -0.124 0.166 0.602 0.068 0.410

21. ELECTRICITY 0.020 0.286 0.319 0.060 0.859 22. WATER 0.952 0.127 0.069 0.027 0.928 23. TEI.liVISTON 0.11 n 0 .055 -0.015 0.915 0.052 24. TE 1,1';PHONE 0.727 0.496 0 .300 0.108 0.876 25. IIOUHUllOl.iJIiN 0 .430 0.725 0.100 0.024 0.753 26. KUTCHAHOUSE -0.153 -0.77G -0.208 -0.119 0.604 27. PUCCAROAD 0.653 0.543 0.150 0.063 0.751 28. ROADCONVI'.RGE 0.753 0.462 0.290 0.056 0.869 29. ROADDENSITY 0.299 0.739 -0.017 0.051 0.639 30. LITERACYRATE 0 .106 0.513 0.616 0.199 0.694 31. SECONDSCHOOL -0.184 0.490 0.375 0.012 0.415

32. COLLEGE -0.182 0.328 0.295 -0.012 0.227

33. UNIVEREQUINS 0.714 0.174 0.029 0.511 0.802 ' i4. '"-IfMlM OYMKMT -0.1'17 - ' ) . lO'l -0.705 n . rm 0.B27 35. PRINACTIVITY -0.269 -0.758 -0.257 -0.015 0.713 36. SECOACTIVITY 0.223 0.366 0.672 0.245 0.695 37. TERTACTIVITY 0.114 0.546 -0.300 -0.200 0.441

38. PERCAPITINC 0.657 0.396 0.468 0.140 0.827 39. ANNUALEXPEND 0.636 0.317 0.592 0.026 0.856

Percent Variance 26.60 19.90 16.00 7.20 Explainos

Ciiiriulnlivo PoPContQgo 26.60 46.50 62.50 69.70

h^ = sum of squared factor loadings for each va r i ab l e ; Total var iance = = sum of squares of each factor d i v ided number of va r i ab l es .

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200

However , the f i r s t - s t ep cross-sect ional analysis included

a l l th i r t y nine va r i ab l e s and produced four interpretab le factors.

These are designated:

i ) High Urbanization,

i i ) T e r r i t o r i a l stress and housing condition,

i i i ) Demographic and Economic Attr ibutes of Urbanization,

and

i v ) Urban Amenities.

The four factors are confirming the general var iance

on socio-economic and demographic status of d i f f e r en t urban

centers. Factor scores of 39 var iab l es were computed and 4

composite maps were drawn to show the spat ia l var iat ion of the

d i f f e r en t dimensions of va r i ab l es , which showed a high degree

factor loading to v i sua l i ze the supremacy in the i r r espec t i ve

dimension.

4.2.1 Factor-I: High Urbanization

Factor - I expla ins 26.60 per cent of total var iance in

normal var imax rotated factor matrix, which is mainly contributed

by the fourteen pos i t i v e strong va r i ab l es ( p o s i t i v e factor loadings

equal or more than 0.50 per cent va r i ance ) . According to Factor-

I, only Dhaka and Khulna are character ized by high urbanization

and a high dynamic nature.

201

High urbanization can be grouped into four micro - leYal

categor ies :

a ) Demogrpahic and spat ia l expansion with high urbanization

i ) Urban population (P and H)

i i ) Urban area (P and H)

i i i ) Degree of urbanization (P and H)

b ) Urban f a c i l i t i e s and amenities

i ) Water supply (P and H)

i i ) E l ec t r i c i t y ( P a n d H)

i i i ) Telephone (P and H)

i v ) Hospita l (P and H)

V) Government o f f i c e (P and H)

v i ) Educational institution (P and H)

e) Urban transportation

i ) Bus (P and H)

i i ) Pucca road and road (P and H)

convergence

d ) Material status

i ) Income (P and H)

i i ) Expenditure ( P and H)

High = factor loading above ± 0.75, Medium ± 0.50 to t V.75 P = Pos i t i v e and N = Negat ive d i rect ion; H = High and M = Medium magnitude.

202

Highest pos i t i v e loading is accounted in the size of

urban population (0.95630), f o l l owed by 'urban area ' (0.94432)

and degree of urbanization (0.88237). It can be recognized in

terms of demographic and spat ia l expansion with high degree of

urbanization. Urban f ac i l i t i e s and amenities can be further

separated into water supply (0.95209), e l e c t r i c i t y consumption

(0.81961), telephone (0.72698), Hospital beds (0.50633),

government o f f i c e s (0.84358) and higher educational institution

(0.71352). Urban f a c i l i t i e s and amenities are a v e r y important

c r i t e r ia for growth of urban s i ze and expansion of urban area.

These var iab l e are being used as pul l factors in urban dynamics.

Transport and communication p lays a v i t a l r o l e in urban

growth and development of spec ia l i zed a c t i v i t i e s . Their spat ia l

•pattern i s iniiuenced by the f a c t o r s of complementarity, intervening

opportunit ies and t rans f e rab i l i t y . As the degree of connectivity

i s character ized by var ia t ions , the l inkage patterns have been

examined both by number of buses and road convergence in an

unit area. These have accelerated the growth of urban

populations and landuse intensi ty . There i s a signif icant pos i t i ve

factor loading by bus serv i ces (0.94699), pucca road (0.65269)

and road convergence (0.75385) . Dhaka, Khulna, and Comilla

fo l lowed by Pabna and Rangpur, are the c i t i e s where signif icant

convergence of road is obse rved .

203

Mater ia l status is character ized by medium type of

pos i t i v e loading in income (0.65729) and annual expenditure

(0.63599). Both the indicators are v e r y important to understand

the var iat ion of urban growth dynamics. Big c i t i e s ' expenditure

and income both are h i gh l y loaded in material status dimension.

Spatial pattern of high urbanization as revealed by

Factor- I can be best analysed with the help of f i gure 4.1, where

composite factor scroes of Factor- I have been plotted for the

f o r t y selected urban centers of Bangladesh ( t ab l e 4.3. J • Highest

pos i t i v e score i s 56.54 for Dhaka, fo l lowed by Khulna (22.38) .

Occurrence of v e r y high scores rovea ls that they are the most h igh ly ,

urbanized c i t i e s of the country. Overa l l composite scores range

between + 56.54 to -14.74. The least urbanized towns are Parsha,

Modhupur, Derai and Thakurganj, and the ir negat ive factor scores

are -14.74, -11.77, -11.29, and -11.36 r e s p e c t i v e l y . A large

number of urban centers are grouped in medium type (X + 0.5

S.D. to X -0 .5 S .D . ) of urbanized centers. These are Faridpur,

Tangail , Jamalpur, Manikganj, Narsingdi, Netrokona, Mirzapur,

Noakhali , Rangamati, Cox ' s Bazar, Feni, ' Lakhmipur, Sunamganj,

Patuakhali , Jhenaidh, Bheramera, Dinajpur, Naogaon, Gaibandha,

and Ishurdi , Comilla, Sy lhet , Bar isa l , Jessore, Bogra, Pabna,

and Rangpur, have emerged as high urbanized urban centers and

the factor scores have been found betv/een 5.93 to 17.79 ( tab le

4 .3 . ) .

i \

/>j

fi'S^E W - w B A N G L A D E S H

204

I T F "

O? o V COMPONENT SCORES ( X = 0 00 . SD =11 86J)

V . > ?

HIGH U R B A N I Z A T I O N COMPONENT - I 1961

C L i

— U

s jO

©

^ X »1 55D:

^ X»0 55D,

! X-0 5SD;

-1 5SD

VERY HIGH .17 791

HIGH . 5 930

MEDIUM - 5 3 3 0

LOW -17 791

VERY LOW

2CJ

O O

o ©

© S 2 1

/ I

N

ii'N

INDIA

U3=

U2-

cO

24_

B A ' P O P U L A T I O N S IZE OF T O W N S

PERSONS 100,000

75,000 --50.000 — 25.000

10.000 5,000

10 0 20 40 60 I I I I I r I I KM

eifE

Above 50( 000

I 100000-499,999

?

i 2d

©

910° .SJL FIG.if . l R£A)AN/90

205

4.2.2 Factor-I l : Territorial Stress and Housing Condition

High t e r r i t o r i a l pressure and low qual i ty of housing

condition have been ident i f i ed in larger c i t i es and smaller towns

r e spec t i v e l y . Fac to r - I I explained about 20 per cent of total

variance. In Fac to r - I , fourteen var iab l es appeared as strong

correlates on urban dynamics. Here, eleva:i v a r i ab l e s are found

to be po s i t i v e l y corre la ted vrith urban environment but the rest

of the three are inve rse l y correlated with s i ze of urban centers,

these are Dependency rat io ( - 0 .509 ) , Kutcha house ( -0 .776 ) and

Primary a c t i v i t y ( - 0 . 7 5 8 ) . .-Ml of these are i nve r s e l y correlated

with large urban centers. Conversely , related to high t e r r i to r ia l

stress are the high loading of population densi ty (0 .758) , park

and playground ( f a c to r loading 0.534) , household density (0 .725) ,

road density (0 .739 ) , and pucca road (0 .543 ) . Moreover, post

o f f i c e (0 .582) , cinema ha l l (0 .657) , newspaper circulation (0 .668) ,

bank (0 .543) , and ter t iary ac t i v i t y (0 .546 ) , showed a

considerably h igh factor loading in urban dynamics. The loading

of l i t e racy rate i s also high (0 .513) .

For bet ter understanding of the t e r r i t o r i a l stress and

housing condit ion, the fol lowing notations" have been used with

the help of factor loading in s ix categor ies :

a ) Population and congestion

i ) Population densi ty (P and H)

i i ) Household density (P and H)

= Pos i t i v e and N = Negative d i r e c t i o n magnitude, H = High, M = Medium and L = Low magnitude of urban dynamics.

206

i i i ) Parks and ^ o v ^ d (P and MJ

b ) Transportation

i ) Pucca Road ( L e n S ^ ^ ^ ^^

i i ) Road density ^^

c ) Housing condition

i ) Kutcha house and H)

d ) Urban aoa i i t i e s

i ) Post o f f i c e (P M)

i i ) Cinema hal l (P and M)

i i i ) Bank (P and M)

i v ) Newspaper (P and M)

e ) Economic status

i ) Pr imary a c t i v i t y (N and H)

i i ) Te r t i a ry a c t i v i t y (P and M)

f ) Other

i ) Dependency rat io (F/M) (N and M)

Populatioin density and congestion category has formed

with the help of population densi ty (0.75813), household density

(0.72500) and parks and playground (0.53346). Density and

congestion factor g i ves a clear indication of high pressure in the

207

large c i t i e s . Congestion is found to be gradual ly decreasing with

the s ize of towns. Pucca road (0.54134) and road density

(0.73944) a re having a high pos i t i v e loading and this can be

explained in terms of transportation. Road density i s h igh ly

corre lated wi th population density ( r = 0.89) and i t is v e r y close

association with large c i t ies ( see appendix 4 . 1 ) . On the other

hand, kutcha house concentration is i nve r se l y related v;ith large

c i t i e s ( r = - 0 . 2 8 ) .

Medium types of pos i t i v e loading of post o f f i c e

(0.58162), cinema Hall (0.65651), bank (0.54318) and newspaper

circulation (0.66193) have formed urban aminit ies group. An

insight into the var iab les of this group revea ls that urban

amenities and t e r t i a ry ac t i v i t y (0.54613) are signif icant in

determining the socio-economic environment of urban centers, and

converse ly pr imary ac t i v i t y ( -0.75783) shows the negat ive

loading. A l l these factors r e vea l that they behave in a certain

consistent fashion. High pos i t i v e loading i s the indicator of high

s tandard o f 1 i v ing and people are immigrating in big urban centers

as a pull f ac to r . While the negat ive loading shows just the

r eve rse condit ion. Negat ive dependency rat io ( -0.50851) indicates

that the de f i c i ency of e lders and ch i ldren , i s the indicator of

rapid growth of urban centers. Factor scores are shown in f igure

4 .2 . Centers with pos i t i v e l y v e r y high scores are noted for

maximum degree of t e r r i t o r i a l s tress , wh i l e the occurrence of

negat ive ly high scores indicates low t e r r i t o r i a l stress and poor

8'9°E "gltf ^ gTf" B A N G L A D E S H

TERRITORIAL STRESS AND HOUSING CONDITION COMPONENT - 11". 195 1

U5 O

s .

s . N

o

• X-05SD I \ X-15SD

, n COMPONENT SCORES ( X= 0 00 ; 50= 9 500) 1 f I I \

VERY HIGH • K .250

HIGH • A .750

MEDIUM -A 750

LOW -14 250 VERY LOW

o o

o •s

INDIA

-V rO

INDIA 24

B A 0 F

^ I P O P U L A T I O N S I Z E OF T O W N S PERSONS

100,000 75,000

Above SOaOOO

---5 0.000 ---25 000 ---10.000

5.000

I 100000-499,999

10 0 20 60 60 ' • I ' I " I 'KM

eifE 910 _9/ FIG. k2 REJUAN/90

209

housing condit ion. Here, fac tor scores more than 4.25 are noted

in the three urban centers. A l l these urban centers are located

on the main road and ra i lway routes ( excep t Ba r i sa l ) . Barisal

is connected with main road and waterways but no ra i lway

routes. Modhupur, Derai and Porsha have v e r y low l e v e l of

t e r r i t o r i a l stress and poor housing condition ( fac tor scores - 14.25

and more ) .

4.2.3 Factor - in : Demographic and Economic Attributes of

Urbanization

This factor explains 16.00 per cent of the total

var iance . It i s mainly contributed by the ft)llo\.'ing twe l ve strong

va r i ab l e s . Within the 12 strong va r i ab l e s , three are negat ive ly

loaded and rest nine corre lates are pos i t i v e l y working in

mechanism of urban system change in Bangladesh. Here, three

ident i f i ed sub-groups explain three d ist inct character is t ics of

urban dynamics. Although the contribution of Fac to r - I l l i s not

v e r y h igh . Though i t i s important because i t has incorporated

an important demographic and economic va r i ab l e s of urbanization.

Out of the twe l v e var iab l es , s ix of them re f e r to demographic

typo logy of urban centers of Bangladesh. Out of which four

va r i ab l e s have pos i t i ve re lat ionship with Fac to r - I l l whereas the

other two var iab l es sex rat io (Female per 1000 male) and

dependency rat io are negat ive ly re lated with the factor .

210

Fac to r - I l l : Demographic and Economic Attr ibutes of Urbanization.

Category Magnitude

( a ) Demographic typo logy

i ) Net migration P and H

i i ) Population growth P and M

i i i ) Median age P and H

i v ) Sex rat io N and M

v ) Dependency rat io N and M

v i ) L i teracy rate P and M

( b ) Economic

i ) Unemployment N and H

i i ) Secondary a c t i v i t y P and H

i i i ) Annual expenditure P and M

( c ) Health and Family Planning

i ) FPC and MCWC P and M

i i ) No. of Hospital bed P and M

( d ) Other

i ) Street l ight P and M

P is pos i t i v e and N is negat ive direct ion of magnitude; H is h igh, M is medium and L is low magnitude of urban dynamics.

211

Moreover, sex rat io is iadicating the de f i c i ency of female

percentage over male, whereas dependency rat io represents

de f i c i ency of e l d e r s and chi ldren. Under this sub-group, high

rate of incoming migrants ( factor loading 076143), population

growth (0.67140), large number of working group population as

evident from medium age (0.80284), and l i t e racy rate (0.61596)

are characteriz ing the dominancy of demography typo logy .

Aff luence and progress of socio-economic status are highly

pos i t i v e l y corre la ted with educational achievement, as is obvious

from the pos i t i v e loadings for percentage Of l i t e ra te to total

population. In addit ion to social status, economic status also

prov ided for educational achievements. Negative sex rat io - F/M

( -0 .50876) , and dependency rat io ( -0.56216) are also supporting

the high urbanization; i . e . , more young males are immigrating

in big urban centers, where the economic f a c i l i t i e s are h igher .

Negative sign of unemployment ( -0 .70964) , pos i t i v e direct ion of

secondary ac t i v i t y (0.67206) and annual expenditure (0.59203)

are the ev idence of high degree of correlat ion amongs the

var iab les (appendix 4 . 1 ) . It indicates that areas which have

high percentage of population engaged in secondary and ter t iary

sectors.

The third component i s the health and fami ly planning

status in relation to demographic typo logy and economic status.

Medium pos i t i ve factor loading have been observed in family

planning center, and maternity and ch i ld wel fare center (FPC 8

212

MCWC, 0.60196], and concentration of hospital bed (0.56026).

This sub-factor r e f l e c t s a low pos i t i v e health fac i l i t i es of the

country. FPC a MCWC and hospita l f a c i l i t i e s are associated with

nedica l f a c i l i t i e s , l i k e pre-natal and ante-natal mother care and

c h i l d hea l th serv ices .The poor economic conditions account for lack

of health f a c i l i t i e s .

Figure 4.3 shows the spatial var iat ions of demographic,

economic and health status of urban centers of Bangladesh. Factor-

I l l may be best analysed v/ith the help of f i gure 4.3, where the

composite factor scores of Fac tor - I l l have been plotted for a l l

40 urban centers. It i s observed that the urban centers are

character ized by both high pos i t i v e and high negat ive scores.

S imi lar ly large urban centers are associated with high pos i t ive

and small towns to high negative factor scores . Most of the small

towns are located near to the large c i t i e s . The i r pecul iar location

is responsib le for medium pos i t i v e to h igh negat ive composite

scores . This is because large c i t i es have bet ter job opportunities

but high rent of houses, due to which peop le from small towns

more to the large towns leaving behind the i r f ami l i es .

Dhaka secured the highest factor score (20.47) fol lowed

by Khulna (12 .64 ) . Th is is a v e r y high ranking group in

demographic and economic urbanization. Manikganj, Marsingdi,

Comil la, Sy lhet , Rangamati, Feni, Bar isa l , Jessore , Jhenaidh,

Bogra, Pabna, Rangpur and Naogaon belong to high leve l of

8 '9 °E .1 I H

^DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC ATTRIBUTES OF URBANIZATION B A N G L A D E S H

w 213

COMPONENT- I I I "1951

o ^ -N COMPONENT SCORES ( X : 0.00 : SO = 7 .820 )

f ^ ygPY H I5H -X.l 5 SO

I _ X.0.5 SO

yX-0.5S0

I X-1.5SD

•

A

i

r ' l - i ' I

I'' ^

• 11.730 H IGH

• 3.910 MEDIUM

- 3.910 LOW

-11.730 VERY LOW

2CJ

©

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) \

o 'V \

r-. ! •V

H 'N r - y

I N D I A

INDIA

123°

tO

2'L

23J

L2I'

- -50.000 --25.000

--10.000 -- 5,000

^ P O P U L A T I O N S I Z E OF T O W N S PERSONS

100,000

75.000

Above 50C\000

100 000-«99,999

'P 9 , 20 iO 60 ' ' I I ' I ' ' K M

fllf E 9|0 FIG. RE JUAN/90

214

demographic and economic development and composite scores range

between 3.91 (X + 0.5 S .D. ) and 11.73 (X + 1.5 S . D . ) . On the

other hand, medium group ranges between 3.91 (X + 0.5 S .D. )

and -3 .91 ( X + 0 . 5 S . D . ) . Faridpur, Tangai l , Jamalpur, Netrokona,

Mirzapur, Noakhal i , Cox ' s Bazar. Patuakhal i , Barguna, Dinajpur,

Gaipandna and Ishurdi are in medium range group.

Low l e v e l of demographic and economic development

is observed in Muktagacha, Lakhmipur, Sunamganj, Fat ikchari ,

Derai, Bhola, Meherpur, Bheramara, Mirzaganj and Sherpur.

There values range between -3.91 to -11.73. Only three urban

centers (Modhupur, Thakurganj, and Forsha) f a l l into the groups

of v e r y low l e v e l of demographic and economic attributes of

urbanization. Small towns have predominance of primary and

ter t iary a c t i v i t i e s and have low negat ive scores .

4 .2 .4 . Fac t o r - r v : Urban Amenities

Urban functional ac t i v i t i e s are d i r e c t l y related to urban

amenities and f a c i l i t i e s ava i l ab l e . Factor- IV explains only 7.20

per cent of the total variance which is mainly contributed by

four strong va r i ab l e s . Out of four, 'area change' ( factor loading

0.90947) i s a d i f f e rent type of v a r i ab l e than the urban amenities

va r i ab l e s . Post o f f i c e (0.54055), Univers i ty (0.51116) and

Radio/Telev is ion (0.91478) per lakh population indicate high

pos i t i v e corre lat ion between fourth factor and the other var iab les .

215

• I t does not mean that the contribution of other var iab le is zero.

But they have poor pos i t i ve or negat ive relat ionship with this

fac tor .

To summarize the urban amenities pattern of selected

f o r t y urban centers in Bangladesh, composite factor scores have

been computed and are plotted on the map ( f i gure 4 .4 ) . Urban

centers with v e r y high scores have maximum urban fac i l i t i e s l ike

- Dhaka and Sylhet , whose values exceed the X + 1.5 S.D. (more

than 4.911 factor s co res ) . Converse ly , the occurrence of low

scores indicates poor urban f a c i l i t i e s . Lowest f ac i l i t i e s have

been found in Jamalpur, ( -1 .681 ) Madhupur ( - 3 .769 ) , Mirzapur

( - 2 .295 ) , Lakhmipur ( - 2 .733 ) , Fat ikchar i ( - 2 .660 ) , Derai ( -3 .114) ,

Meherpur ( - 1 .948 ) , Bheramara ( - 2 . 147 ) , Mirzaganj ( -2 .756 ) ,

Naogaon ( -1 .996 ) and Porsha ( - 3 . 5 7 7 ) . Re la t i v e l y high urban

f a c i l i t i e s are found in Comilla, Khulna, Bar isa l , Bogra, Dinajpur

and Rangpur. These factor scores range between 1.637 to 4.911

(X + 0.5 S.D. to X + 1.5 S . D . ) . Rest twenty urban centers

belongs to group having moderate f a c i l i t i e s . Values l i e between

1.637 to -1.637 (X + 0.5 S.D. to X -0 .5 S . D . ) .

4 .2 .5 Strong Var iables in Four Factors , 1961

Except Dhaka, Khulna and Chittaganj c i t i es almost al l

urban enters have strong v i l l a g e charac te r i s t i cs and many of

them grade into v i l l a ge quite impercept ib ly (Rash id , 1977). Even

a^E

\

.1 I ^ B A N G L A D E S H

URBAN A M E N I T I E S C O M P O N E N T - I V 1961

w 216

s r

U-5'

1 S

U5° <~ I i

9 -X -

o

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X»15SD

X.0 5SD

' COMPONEN T S C O R £ S ( X = 0 0 0 , S D = 3 2 7 4 ) ^ I VERY H IGH

• A 911 HIGH

.1 637 medium

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-4 911 VERY LOW

/ X-0 5SD

1 BSD

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O

INDIA

B A I P 'OPJLAT ION SIZE OF T O W N S

PERSONS 100 000

50 000 / r- 75 000 ---25 000 --- 10000 --- 5,000

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e . f E

Above SOaOOO

I 100 000-A99,999

s

V

22A ^

9|0 REA)AN/90

217

l a rge towns l ike -Comi l la , Sy lhet , Rangpur e tc . had a rural

atmosphere upto 1961. So, i t i s v e r y wise to ident i fy the strong

va r i ab l e s , those which accelerated the urban dynamics mechanism.

However , the commonality shows a wide range of

var iat ion in the factor loading value f o r each var iab le .

Communality value exceeding 0.50 i s designated as a strong. In

th is connection, out of 39 va r i ab l e s , 31 var iab l es have been

ident i f i ed as strong var iab les for urban system change and as

k inet ic agents of urban dynamics in Bangladesh in 1961. List

of va r i ab l e s and the values of communality for strong var iables

can be found in table 4.2.

'communality (h ) is the sum of squared factor loadings for each

va r i ab l e .

218

4.3 ECOLOGY OF URBAN CENTERS: CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS

OF DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS OF VARIATION, 1974

For a l l the selected 40 urban centers of Bangaldesh,

39 var iab les pertaining to demographic and socio-economic

infrastructure for 1974 were chosen and subjected to principal

components analysis ( see appendix 1 . 1 ] . A var imax rotated factor

matrix was obtained which contains four factors ( tab le 4 .4 ) .

A 39 X 39 corre lat ion matrix was prepared , see appendix - 4.2.

Examination of the rotated factor loadings on these factors

rendered them to be labe l led as high economic urbanization with

high urban functions (urban amenit ies ) , deurbanization,

demographic deurbanization, and h igh t e r r i t o r i a l stress. With

regard to contribution of these factors in total variance, i t was

observed that high economic urbanization with high urban functions

accounts for 25.50 pe r cent, deurbanization f o r 17.90 per cent,

demographic deurbanization for 15.50 per cent and high terr i tor ia l

s tress for 10.10 per cent of total var iance of strong var iab les

f o r urban dynamics. Put together, these four factors account for

69.00 per cent of the total var iance of the 39 va r i ab l e . Factor

scores were also calculated to judge the spat ia l variat ion of urban

functions and economic v a r i ab i l i t y in d i f f e r en t centers (Tab le 4 .5 ) .

The communalities are shown in table 4 .4 . Each factor w i l l be

discussed in turn.

o w f^ U -C

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The interpretat ion of the fac tors needs caution in

explanation S r e q u i r e s deta i led examination of push factors in

surrounding rural areas and pull factors in urban centers. In this

section of the chapter an attempt has been made to ident i fy

the strong va r i ab l es (± 0.50 or more factor loadings va lue ) in

the l ight of h igh economic and demographic factor scores Vv'ith

urban functions. The fo l lowing character is t ics of urban ac t i v i t y

show strong va r i ab l e s , which are contributing main k inet ic energy

f o r urban growth and development in Bangladesh:

Factor-I: High Economic Urbanization with High Urban Amenities

a ) i ) Te r t i a ry Ac t i v i t y (P and H)

i i ) Pr imary A c t i v i t y (P and H)

i i i ) Secondary A c t i v i t y (P and M)

i v ) Unemployment (N and M)

V) Income (P and H)

b ) Transportation

i ) Road Convergence (P and H) •

i i ) Buses (P and H)

c ) Urban Functions

i ) Post Of f i ces ( P and M) i i ) Cinema Halls (P and H)

i i i ) News Paper Circulations (P and H)

222

i v ) Telephones (P and M)

V ) Te lev is ions • (P and H)

d ) Functional Institutions

i ) Secondary School (P and M)

i i ) Col leges (P and M)

e ) Housing

i ] Kutcha Houses (N and H)

f ) Density Var iables

i ) Population Density (P and M)

i i ) Household Density (P and M)

Factor--II: DairbanlT-^tion

a ) Demographic

i ) Urban Population (N and H)

i i ) Degree of Urbanization (N and H)

i i i ) Household Density (N and M)

b ) Urban Amenities

i ) Government O f f i c es (N and M)

i i ) Te lev is ions (N and M)

i i i ) Telephones (N and M)

i v ) E l ec t r i c i t y (N and M)

V ) Water (N and H)

223

c ) Other

i ) Area (N and H)

Factor -ni : Demographic Deurbanization

a) i ) Median Age (N and H)

i i ) Population Growth (N and H)

i i i ) Dependency Ratio (N and H)

i v ) Net Migration (N and H)

V) Sex Ratio ( and M)

b ) Economic

i ) Unemployment (P and M)

i i ) Income (N and M)

Factor-IV: High Territorial Urbanization

a ) Spatial

i ) Pucca Road (P and M)

i i ) Road Density (P and M)

i i i ) Parks and Playgrounds (P and M)

b ) Urban Amenities

i ) Street Light (P and M)

i i ) Banks (P and M)

Note: P = Pos i t i v e , N = Negative, H = High and M = Medium.

224

4.3.1. Factor-I: High Economic Urbanization with High Urban

Functions (Urban Amenities)

The f i r s t factor accounts for the largest proportion

of total variance (25.50 per cent) which determines the l eve l

of economic urbanization of the towns: Economic ac t i v i t i es ,

transportation fac i l i t i e s , urban functions, educational institutions,

housing, and the l i k e . Amongs the 39 var iab l es , 19 var iab les

have been found as strong var iab l es in the l ight of high

economic urbanization with high urban functions. It may be

noted that a l l the 19 strong va r i ab l e s of this component have

uniformly moderate factor loadings and are al l pos i t i v e l y

corre la ted , except Kutcha houses ( -0 .72387) , unemployment rate

( -0 .54009) , and primary a c t i v i t y ( -0 .78234 ) . Basical ly these

three negat ive signs in these va r i ab l es are playing pos i t i v e role

in urban dNTiamics and does not a f f ec t the ove ra l l interpretation

of the factors , rather conf irms a de f in i t e trend towards better

ut i l izat ion of urban amenities for the improvement and expansion

of urban functions.

In the context of developing countries, the high

corre lat ion of var iab les relating to household amenit ies, urban

f a c i l i t i e s and other economic ac t i v i t i e s h igh l i ghts the accelerating

nature of urban growth and development.

On one end, the factor loading has occupied the medium

l e v e l of educational f a c i l i t i e s and high density of population

225

and household but on the o ther , Kutcha house (-0.72387) shows

the high negat ive association in small urban centers. Again the

transportation functions l ike road convergence (0.70761) and buses

(0.76280) show a high communication development. Other urban

functions i . e , post o f f i ce (0.69934), Cinema hall (0.74123),

Newspaper circulation (0.82129), Telephone (0.57274), and

Te l ev i s i on (0.72390) are also found a high l e ve l of

infrastructural development.

Central places functions are l inked a great deal with

geographical factors , but the country does not posses any rich

phys ica l resources, and, there fo re , the growth of specia l ized

s e r v i c e s has not taken place much. The country s igni f icant ly ,

lack in mineral wealth for industr ia l development except natural

gas in the northeastern side of the country including c i t y .

Even the Sy lhe t c i t y ' s functional and occupational character

c l ea r l y shows a d i v e r s i f i ed pattern where special ization of

manufacturing is absent ( tab le 3.17 and 3 .18 ) . The c i t i es lack

in spec ia l i zat ion, even c i t i es as transport foc i and break of

bulk points are also lacking. The inland water routes are

dominant as against roads and ra i lways . Nature of functions

can be seen in spatial d i f f e rent ia t ion of high economic

urbanization represented by f i r r t ccnp-'nent of factor scores in

F ig . 4.5.

226

Unemployment (-0.54009J and pr imary ac t i v i t y ( -0.78234)

sho\/ v e r y high l e v e l inve rse re lat ionship to other economic

a c t i v i t i e s l i k e - ter t iary a c t i v i t y (0.74313), secondary ac t i v i t y

(0.59889) and per capita income (0.71622). Because of i t s close

association with measures of educational l e v e l , occupational, and

income, Factor - I would appear to be the dimension of economic

status and high l eve l of urban function in urban dynamics. This

was hypothes ized by Shevky and Bel l (1955) and later confirmed

in factor analysis studies of d i f f e r en t l e v e l s in North American

and European Ci t ies . This situation indicates that areas which

have high percentage of population in secondary and te r t ia ry

sectors are more deve loped . Myiat (1967) has stated that

industr ia l izat ion is popular ly regarded as synonymous with

economic development by the people of the developing countries.

It p roves that high per capita income oriental urban centers

have a la rger proportion of the ir labour in secondary and

t e r t i a ry sectors , converse ly , the urban centers with low pe r -

capita incomes have a la rger proportion of the ir labour in

pr imary a c t i v i t y (Bauer and Yamey, 1951).

Again, the f i r s t factor (high economic urbanization with

high urban amenit ies) shows a v e r y high factor loading in

t e r t ia ry a c t i v i t y that indicates a l op -s ided economic progress

of the urben centers. Moreover , the heavy dominance of the

t e r t i a ry sector also indicates that a few people are engaged in

whi te co l lar jobs and a high proport ion i s engaged in menial

227

type of works . It further indicates that there is a high rate

of unemployment, underemployment, misemployment, etc. in the

small and medium sized urban centers. The general

developmental hypothes is is that the percentage of primary

sector workers should be l ess and secondary sector worker

should be h igher fo l lowed by t e r t i a ry sec tor . But the f i r s t

factor shows the v e r y high negat ive loading f o r primary sector

workers associated with high pos i t i v e loading for tert iary sector

workers and medium pos i t i ve loading in secondary sector

workers . It i s because of this that urban centers are lacking

behind in economic progress. There are some exceptions l i ke

Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Sylhet etc .

Educational development and af f luence are d i rec t ly

corre lated with each other (appendix 4 . 2 ) . Due to that a high

pos i t i v e loading has been observed in income, high school, and

co l leges ( t ab l e 4 . 4 ) . So i t i s supporting the overlapping

condition of economic development and educational l e ve l of urban

h ie rarchy (Rao, 1981).

Figure 4.5 show the spat ia l d i f f e rent ia t ion of high

economic urbanization with high urban amenities l e v e l in d i f f erent

urban centers of Bangladesh. The factor scores have been

d i v i d ed in f i v e classes with the he lp of mean and 1/2 standard

deviat ion technique and the in terva ls ranging from ve r y high

pos i t i v e to \'ery high negat ive . Here, e v e r y high pos i t i ve

228

.o S l 9 ° E 9l)° 9 ] ? B A N G L A D E S H

^IGH ECONOMIC URBANIZATION WITH HIGH URBAN AMENITIES

COMPONENT - I : 1974

'•I C ^COMPONENT SCORES ( X 3 0 0 0 ; S D =11.60)

FIG. R E J U A N / 9 0

229

score indicates v e r y high l e ve l of economic environment { pos i t i v e

factor loadings ) and converse ly , v e r y high negat ive scores show

v e r y low l e v e l of economic status (negat i ve factor loadings) of

the r e spec t i v e towns.

The spatial d i f ferent iat ions of the 1974 high economic

urbanization dimension shows v e r y h igh economic status only

in two c i t i e s (Dhaka and Bogra ) . On the other hand three

smaller centers belong to v e r y low l e v e l of economic

development. They are Modhupur, Derai and Porsha. High l eve l

of economic status ( f ac to r scores range between 5.08 to 17.40)

Far idpur , Tangai l , Narsingdi, Comilla, Sy lhe t , Noakhali , Khulna,

Bar isa l , Jessore , Dinajpur, Pabna, Rangpur and Ishurdi . Khulna

is indust r ia l l y deve loped, and has come to occupy second rank

of economic status. The medium group ( f a c to r scores + 5.80

to -5 .80 ) o f economic status of urban centers are Jamalpur,

Manikganj, Netrokana, Rangamati, C o x ' s Bazar, F a i i , Patuakhali,

Bhola, Barguna, Jhenaidh, Naogaon, Thakurgaon, and Gaibandha.

Muktagacha, Mirzapur, Lakhmipur, Sunamganj, Fat ikehari ,

Meherpur, Bheramara, Mirzaganj and Sherpur have fo l len low

economic status.

4.3.2 FActor - I l : Deurbanization

A v e r y interesting thing i s to be noted about second

factor (deurbanizat io in ) . Both demographic and urban amenities

230

shov.- a negat ive relat ionship in urban dynamics. Due to that

i t is designated as "Deurbanization". The second factor

accounts for 17.90 per cent of the total var iance.

The factor indicates that urban serv i ces and social

f a c i l i t i e s l i k e per capita water supply ( -0 .87435) , government

o f f i c e s per lakh population ( -0 .66914) , te lev is ion per lakh

population (-0.58001) and telephone per lakh population

( -0.56997) are higher in small urban centers than large c i t ies

( in per unit f a c i l i t i e s ) . It means that some of the var iab les

may be strong in small urban centers also ( tab le - 4.4, F - I I ) .

To summarise the deurbanization of towns composite

Scores f o r Factor- I I have been computed and are plotted in

f igure 4 .6 . According to the deurbanization mechanism of factor

loadings, pos i t i v e high factor scores are seen in sna i l urban

areas and negative high factor scores are found in large urban

centers. Very high negative scores of more than -11.043 have

been noted in Dhaka and Khulna. Occur ence of high negative

scores r evea l s that they are high deurbanized c i t i es with

relat ion to the va r i ab l es of Fac to r - I I loadings. Converse ly ,

Muktagacha, Modhupur, Mirzapur, Lakhmipur, Sunamganj,

Fa t i cher i , Derai, Bhola, Barguna, Meherpur, Bheramara,

Mirzaganj , Sherpur and Porsha have been carry ing high pos i t i v e

factor scores between 3.855 to 11.566. The deurbanization index

( F i g . 4 .6 ) indicate that the above mentioned urban centers are

2 3 1

FIG. RE JUAN/90

232

deve loped with relat ion to water supp ly , government o f f i c es ,

te lev is ion and telephone f a c i l i t i e s . Other urban center are lying

between extreme posit ions, Factor - I I ( t ab l e 4 .4 , F - I I ) .

4 .3 .3 Factor-III: Demographic Deurbanization

Fac to r - I l l also g i v e s a negat ive result in urbanization

with relat ion to demographic v a r i a b l e s . So the factor i s

designated as "Demographic deurbanizat ion" , It accounts for

15.50 per cent of total var iance.

Out of 39 var iab les in Fac t o r - I l l (demographic

deurbanizat ion) , only seven indicators have been extracted as

strong corre la tes . Among them four va r i ab l e s are negatively

corre lated with the factor i . e . , median age ( -0 .87145) , population

growth rate ( -0 .79907) , net migration ( -0 .88212) and monthly

income ( -0 .57318) . On the other hand rest of the 3 var iables

are po s i t i v e l y corre lated with the fac tor , but the nature of

va r i ab l es is neverse , which are sex rat io ( f emale over male),

unemployment rate and dependency ra t io . The factor loadings

are 0.55282, 0.67014 and 0.85397 fo r sex rat io , unemployment,

and dependency rat io r e spec t i v e l y .

The f igure 4.7 shows the spat ia l variation of

demographic corre lates of strong va r i ab l e s for the year of 1974.

Rangamati, Sherpur, and Porsha have been found in v e r y high

pos i t i v e factor scores but Dhaka and Ishurdi show a ve ry high

~8l9°E "glo" gli"

A .

25'

B A N G L A D E S H

DEMOGRAPHIC DE URBANIZAT ION ^ COMPONENT-I I I .1974

C COMPONENT SCORES ( X : 0.00; 5 0 = 7. 362 ) ^ ^ • J ^ ^ VERY H IGH

? X.1.5 SO ^ ^ » 11.0A3 ^ ^ ' h i g h

\ Lo.sso ^ » 3.581 ') MEDIUM

X-0.55D ^ - 3 581 < g > LOW

: X-1.5S0 p < -11.043

912°

O VERY LOW

.J

24-

INDIA

I 2 2 "

^ B A POPULATION S I ZE IN T 0 W NS { P ERSONS )

50,000 ^100.000 25,000 / ^ 50,000 -99,999

121 N 5.000

'0 0 20 40 60 t. I 1 . i—rKM

_ _ 819° £_

r INDIA 24

J

H G

G"F -1.600,000 AND ABOVE

400,000

23

_9i0° 9ill FIG. h j

912 RE JUAN/90

234

nega t i v e f ac to r scores . Th is c ircumstance conf i rms that smal ler

s i z e of the tov/ns i s associated wi th some strong var iab les ( t a b l e

- 4 .4 , F - I I I 3 . Of the 5 groups o f fac tor scores , three have

v e r y h i gh factor scores 11.043; ten have h igh pos i t i ve scores

3.681 to 11.043; e ighteen h a v e be tween -3 .681 to + 3.681. The

nega t i v e h i gh factor scores r e l a t ed urban centers on Fac t o r - I l l

a re s p a r s e l y d is t r ibuted throughout the country ( F i g . 4 . 7 ) .

The most s t r ik ing point r e v ea l ed b y the aap i s that, a l l towns

w i th h igh scores are of medium and small s i z e and th is may

be due to demographic fac tors .

4.3.4 Factor -rv : High Territorial Urbanization

T h i s factor acccounts f o r on l y 10.1 per cent of total

var iance of the 39 v a r i a b l e s , and h i g h l i g h t s the towns which

have a h i ghe r percentage of spa t i a l v a r i a b l e s and urban

f a c i l i t i e s . Seven v a r i a b l e s h a v e been i d en t i f i e d as 'Strong

v a r i a b l e s ' in urban dynamics. Pucca road (0.65646), road

dens i ty (0 .59068) , and Park and p layground (0.69597) contribute

to h igh t e r r i t o r i a l urbanizat ion. T h e y are contributing as a

p o s i t i v e f ac to rs in urban dynamics . Interconnections of towns

l eads to the i r growth and deve lopment of spec i a l i z ed a c t i v i t i e s .

Degree of a c c e s s i b i l i t y i s a f f e c t ed b y the l inkage patterns.

Road dens i t y p l ays a v e r y important r o l e in determining

urbanizat ion in re lat ion to spa t ia l d imension. Street l ight a lso

shows the extent of urban deve l opment . Banking has now

es tab l i shed i t s posi t ion in the urban s o c i e t y . There has been

235

an unprecedented gro^vth in the number of banks in Bangladesh

during the last decade. The ra t e of increases of bank i s

d i r e c t l y corre lated with l a rge urban centers. The factor of

park and playground i s also an important determinant, which

determines not only the s i z e but also the recreational and

functional status of towns.

To summarize the t e r r i t o r i a l urbanization of in

Bangaldesh towns, composite scores for factor IV have been

computed and are plotted in f igure 4.8. Highest pos i t i ve scores

of more than 8.380 have been noted for Dhaka, Barisal and

Bogra. Occurrence of high scores revea l s that they are most

industr ia l and administrat ive based urban centers. High factor

scores (2.784 to 8.380) have been found in Faridpur, Comilla,

Sy lhet , Noakhali , Cox ' s Bazar, Feni , Jessore, Dinajpur, Rangpur

and Gaibandha. The spatial var iat ion of mid l e v e l factor score

i s pos i t i v e 2.784 to negat ive 2.784. Tangai l , Narsingdi,

Netrokona, Rangamati, Sunamganj, Khulna, Patuakhali, Bhola,

Borguna, Meherpur, Jhenaidh, Pabna, Naogaon, Thakurgaon, and

Ishurdi ha\'e been found in th is group. Low l e v e l ( -2.784 to

-8 .380) of development have been found in Jamalpur, Manikganj,

Muktagacha, Mirzapur, Lakhmipur, Fat ikehar i , Bheramera, and

Sherpur. Modhupur, Derai, Mirzaganj , and Porsha are the least

deve loped urban centers. Because these urban centers are in

v e r y bec-'-ii^'in^ sla^e ':f urbanization.

FIG t . 8 REJUAN ISO

237

4.3.5 Strong Variables in Four Factors, 1974

The interpretat ion ' of urban dynamics i s not quite easy

because the po l i t i ca l factors are d i r e c t l y operating both at local

and national l e v e l . For instance the o f f i c i a l data i s being

manipulated to the need ( p o l i c y ) . Negat ive var iat ion in the

results may be due to crudeness of some of the data of the

1 *

medium and small towns. However, the communality (h ] shows

that the fo l lowing 17 va r i ab l e s have p layed an important ro le

in urban growth and development of Bangladesh towns. The

var iab les are urban population (0.94062), degree of urbanization

(C.92252), median age (0.84517), dependency rat io (0.76077),

net migration (0.86026), area change (0.92309), government o f f i ces

(0.77217), newspaper circulation (0.91366), e l e c t r i c i t y (0.81005),

water (0.88462), te lev is ion (0.89033), telephone (0.78645), house

hold density (0.82393), road convergence (0.75647), l i teracy

rate (0.80110), unemployment (0.77486), and per capita income

(0.90768). Mapping of factor scores r evea l s a c lear re lat ionship

between the exist ing socio-economic structure and total urban

population as wel l as degree of urbanization. The f i r s t principal

component and communality have been found c lose re lat ionship

between them. The var iab les which have the highest loadings

r "2.

Communality (h ) i s the sum of squared factor loadings for each va r i ab l e .

238

( i r r e s p e c t i v e of the i r sign +ve or - v e ) have been noted. High

negat ive association of pr imary ac t i v i t y and pos i t i v e association

of secondary and t e r t i a ry ac t i v i t i e s are ident i f i ed as the most

power ful urban dynamics va r i ab l e s . These urban functions can

be suitably improved for the development of urban centers of

Bangladesh.

4.4 ECOLOGY OF URBAN CENTERS OF BANGLADESH: CROSS

SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS OF

VARIATION (BASED ON SELECTION OF STRONG VARIABLES),

1981.

An attempt has been made here to determine the

strength of d i f f e r en t va r iab l es within the 39 demographic and

socio-econor.ic corre lates of Bangladesh. For th is purpose the

39 var iab les have been used in factor ia l analys is . A l l these

va r i ab l es descr ibe the urban dynamics character is t ics

demographic, t e r r i t o r i a l , urban f ac i l i t i e s and education, material

status, transportation and communication. Complete l i s t of the

var iab les is g iven in appendix 1.1. A corre lat ion matrix has

been comp'^Jted with mxn dimeisions of 39 va r i ab l es (appendix

4 . 3 ) . F ro r th is mxn matrix another matrix of equal dimensions

has been computed which shows the re lat ionship of a l l the

var iab l es v. i th d i f f e r en t factors . Along with th is matrix of

factors locdings, e igenvalues and cumulative percentage of the

eigenvalues have been computed. pr inc ipa l component analys is

239

of 39 va r i ab l e s related to the dimensions of demographic and

socio-economic character is t ics have y i e l d 3 factors ( t ab l e 4 . 6 ) ;

which together account for 59.63 per cent of the total variance

in the demographic and socio-economic dimension of urban

dynamics. Among these var iab l es the percentage of variance

explained by each factor has decreased in a descending order .

However , examination of the normal ver imax rotated factor

loadings on these factors rendered them to be label led as high

urbanization, demographic and socio-economic development and

urban functions. In this section, an attempt to search the

important va r i ab l es in urban dynamics for the year of 1981 has

been made.

Factor-I: High Urbanization

a) Demographic

i ) Urban population (P and H)

i i ) Degree of urbanization (P and H)

i i i ) Median age (P and M)

i v ) Population density (P and H)

V) Sex rat io ( F per 1000 m) (P and M)

v i ) Dependancy rat io (N and M)

b ) T e r r i t o r i a l

i ) No. of person per house (N and H)

i i ) Area (P and H)

240

c j Urban Fac i l i t i es and Education

i ) Government Of f i ces (P and M)

i i ) News Paper (P and H)

i i i ) Te lev is ion (P and M]

i v ) E l ec t r i c i t y (P and M)

V) Water (P and M)

v i ) Univers i ty (P and M)

d ) Mater ia l Status ( income)

i ) Percapita Income (P and M)

e ) Transportation

i ) Road Convergence (P and M)

i i ) Road density (P and M)

Factor-II: Demographic and Econoinic

a ) Demographic

i ) Population Growth

i i ) Net Migration

b ) Economic A c t i v i t y

i ) Pr imary a c t i v i t y (N and M) i i ) T e r t i a r y a c t i v i t y (P and M)

i i i ) Unemployment (N and H)

241

c) Urban Faci l i t ies

i ) Street l i ght ' P and M)

i i ) Buses (P and M)

d) Communication and Ter r i t o r ia l

i ) Road convergence (P and M)

i i ) Pucca road {P and M)

i i i ) Area change (P and H)

Factor - I l l : Urban Functions

a) Infrastructural f ac i l i t i es

i ) Kutcha Road ' (P and M)

i i ) Post Of f ice (P and M)

i i i ) Cinema Hall (P and H)

i v ) Hospital (P and M)

V) Television (P and M)

v i ) Bank (P and H)

v i i ) Telephones (P and )

v i i i ) FPC 8 MCWC (P and M)

b ) Others

i ) Literacy rate (P and H)

i i ) Annual Expenditure (P and M)

Note: N = Negative, P ^ Pos i t i ve , M = Medium and H = High.

242

'i.4.1 Factor-I: High Urbanization

This factor exp la ins 26.50 per cent of the total

var iance and i s composed of the elements of urban growth

d\Tiamics, which determine the degree of urbanization of the

tov.ns. However, i t is mainly contributed by the seventeen

strong va r i ab l e s , shown in tab le 4 . 6 . These var iab les have

the highest factor loadings under f a c t o r - I and the factor loadings

indicate the correlat ion between the or ig inal var iab les and the

factor under consideration. It does not mean that the contribution

of other va r i ab l es i s zero , i t only means that other va r iab l es

have poor re lat ionship among them.

Neverthe less the contribution of Factor- I i s not v e r y

high. Though it is important, because i t has condensed a number

of s imi lar types demographic, t e r r i t o r i a l , urban f ac i l i t i e s

transportation and material status under Factor- I , which i s

designated as "high urbanizat ion".

Out of 39 va r i ab l e s , 17 v a r i a b l e s have been found

Important in Factor- I , out of which 16 var iab l es have pos i t i v e

re lat ionship with Factor - I , whereas one va r i ab l e of dependency

rat io is negat ive ly related Vv ith i t . Very high correlat ion has

been found in two demographic v a r i ab l e s , namely - total urban

population (0.91803) and degree of urbanization (0.91801),

coupled with the pos i t i v e loadings for per capita e l e c t r i c i t y

consumption (0.60379), water supply (0.85073), te lev is ion

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245

(0.56091), news paper circulation (0.84042), University

(0.62037), road density (0.68334) and road convergence

(0.66536). The centers having high factor scores of the above

var iab les are designated as dynamic urban centers. Such areas also

show a concurrent improvement in the a v a i l a b i l i t y of urban

f ac i l i t i e s . Converse ly , areas with low proport ion of urban

population are considered as under deve loped .

Degree o f , urbanization is a product of socio-economic

condition of an urban center. But post socio-economic conditions

push the peop le from rural areas to urban center f o r better

employment or source of earnings. A bengali p r o v e r b is that

"Haraya maraya kushto Kesraya joy shahara" ( a f t e r destitution

people move to c i t y ) . With their accommodativeycapacity, urban

center welcomes the ruined people from the v i l l a g e . Push factor

of the v i l l a g e is not the only cause for migration, pull factor

of town is also v e r y important. Urban areas should have "a few

pronounced urban character is t i cs " and should be se rved by "C iv ic

amenities" (Bose, 1978). It should be noted that s i x var iab les

of this component have uniformly high factor loading (above 0.5

factor loadings) and are a l l pos i t i v e l y cor re la ted , which confirms

a de f in i te trend towards bet ter urban f a c i l i t i e s .

Urban growth, development, improvement and expansion

depend upon proper ut i l izat ion of urban functions and material

use. In the context of developing countries, the h igh correlation

246

of va r iab l es relating to domestic material , communication and

transportation, industr ia l , e l e c t r i ca l and water supply h igh l ights

the r e l a t i v e development of urban soc i e t y .

Higher loadings of the road convergence and road

density are indicating v e r y h igh l e v e l s of development with

re lat ion to communication and transportation. High loadings of

government o f f i c es , news paper c irculat ion, te lev is ion, e l e c t r i c i t y

consumption, water supply and un ive rs i t y are all indicating a

v e r y high degree of urbanization. Per capita income i s the

another important determination fo r high l e v e l development and

modernization of town/city.

Figure 4.9 shows the spat ia l pattern of the urban

dynamics as expressed by the dimension of high urbanization.

I t can be noted that the composite factor scores range between

-16.968 to plus 49.009. Very h igh pos i t i ve values have been

recorded for two c i t i es , but in none of the towns there are v e r y

high negat ive values. It i s because, out of important 17

va r i ab l e s sixteen va r i ab l e s have a v e r y high correlation with

Fac tor - I , and one negat ive ly co r r e l a t ed . Another point requiring

due emphasis i s the fact that composite factor scores have not

been computed on the basis of the seventeen var iab les , but a l l

the th i r t y nine var iab les have been taken into account for spat ia l

ana lvs is .

247 TIFT 9h=

L A D E S H

HIGH u r b a n i z a t i o n

COVFCNENT - I 1981

^ component SCORES X = 0 00 , SO = 11 A7 ) / ^

VERY HIGH . 17 212

HIGH . 5 737

MEDIUM - 5 737

LOW - 17 212

VERY LOW

FlG.^t.Q REJUAf,/90

248

Map 4.9 shows the distr ibut ion of composite factor

scores. Dhaka and Khulna show v e r y h igh pos i t i ve factor

scores. They are fo l lowed by towns of Narsingdi, Comilla,

Sy lhet , Bar isa l , Jessore, Bagra, and Rangpur. Reasons

responsible f o r v e r y high pos i t i ve scores in these towns vary

from one town to another. Dhaka c i t y obtained a v e r y high

pos i t i ve fac tor score (49.009) f o r the main administrative

functions, industr ia l development, h igh number of ra i lway and

road convergence, and trade and commerce. Khulna is recognized

as a adminis trat ive and industrial c i t y . It has scored 21.645 .

Direct link with d i f f e r en t part of the country has increased their

importance as trading and industrial centers in the neighboured

area. They attract people from other areas to change the urban

environment. Dhaka is capital of Bangladesh, so al l the higher

o rder functions and f a c i l i t i e s are a va i l ab l e and i t helped to

increase the factor scores . Moreover, Dhaka c i ty has malitary

contoments which has a f fected the age group and reduced the

dependency burden. Khulna being a sea port and also

industr ia l ly d e v e l oped , has recorded a v e r y high l eve l of

development.

Factor scores ranging between -5.737 to plus 5.737 have

been found in Far idpur , Jamalpur, Tangai l , Manikganj, Netrokora,

Noakhali, Rangamati, Cox ' s Bazar, Feni, Potuakhali , Bhola,

Dinajpur, Pabna, Naogaon. Sherpur, Thakurgaon, Gaibandha and

249

Ishurdi , A low l e v e l of development ( -5 .737 to -17.212) has

been ident i f i ed in Muktagacha, Modhupur, ^4i^zapur, Lakhmipur,

Sunamganj, Fa t ikcher i , Derai, Borguna, Meherpur, Jenaidh,

Bheramara, Mirzaganj, and Porsha ( f i g . 4 . 9 ) .

Small towns with ' negative composite scores occupy

unique posit ions in the region espec ia l l y in the v i c in i t y of the

large towns. Other locations occupied by them are in the

agricultural be l t of southern part of Bangladesh, excluding

Chittagong and Chittagong Hi l l Tracts. This is because

agricultural a c t i v i t y i s incapable of supporting large population

densit ies as it requires vast areas of cu l t i vab l e land. It w i l l

be observed that small towns have a predominance of ter t iary

ac t i v i t i e s with low pos i t i v e factor scores (F i gure 4 . 9 ) .

4 .4 .2 Factor I I :Deraographic and Economic Urbanization

The second component was iden t i f i ed mainly with

demographic and economic status and it exp la ined 17.1 per cent

of total var iance. The component i s h i gh l y associated with the

var iab les of per cent of urban population growth, net migration,

area change and unemployment ( t ab l e -4 . 6 . ) . Relationship between

demographic character is t i cs and economic status can be seen in

appendix 4.3. The rotated factor analys is shows that the

highest loading is by net migration (0 .86074) , which is

fo l lowed by urban population rate (0.85458).

250

In the l i ght of economic urbanization, ter t iary ac t i v i t y

(0.56273) has secured the h igh factor loading. Street l ight

(0.58818) and bus (0.52722) a lso rate high factor loading in

the same factor . High factor loadings are also found in

communication and t e r r i t o r i a l va r i ab l e s , l i k e - r oad convergence

(0.51546), pucca road (0.50569) and area change (0.63667).

Converse ly , pr imary a c t i v i t y (0.60506), and unemployment ra te

( -0.75174) are loaded nega t i ve l y . Most of h igh loaded var iab les

are re lated to demographic economic status, so, i t may be cal led

demographic and economic aspect of urban dynamics.

Among the three important var iab les relating to economic

a c t i v i t y , two e xh ib i t negat ive loading, i . e . , primary ac t i v i t y

and unemployment rate . The high negative loadings for pr imary

ac t i v i t y ( -0.60506) coupled with the high pos i t i v e loadings for

percentage of t e r t i a ry workers to total workers (0.56273) and

persons unemployed p e r lakh population ( -0 .75174) indicate that

urban centers have high percentage of population engaged in

t e r t ia ry sector . Th i s sector i s more predominant in urban

areas as has been revea led by v e r y high loading for urban

population growth (0.85458) and net migration (0.86074). The

economic structure of the country i s character ized by a large

proport ion of total working fo rce in pr imary sector , and i t i s

somewhat lopsided and unbalanced in secondary sector. High

percentage of employment in the ter t iary sec tor , can be taken

as a key to development only i f the income earned is high and

251

the working hours low, but this i s not the case in urban centers

under study.

Spatial pattern of demographic and economic

character is t ics of the c i t y have been p lo t ted in f igure 4.10.

Highest pos i t i v e scores more than 12.89 have been noted for

Dhaka and Sylhet . Occurrence of high scores reveals that they

are character ized with high rate of net migration and natural

growth of population. High rate of employment opportunity exists

through large, and medium s ize of industr ies . Most of the class

I and class I I c i t i es have fa l len under the second rank of factor

scores (4.30 to 12.89) . These are Nars ingdi , Comilla, Khulna,

Bar isa l , Jessore, Bogra and Rangpur. Except Barisal , a l l these

centers are located on the main road and ra i lway routes. The

Barisal c i ty i s v e r y we l l connected with water transport and

has easy access to the rest of the country. Their (Narsingdi ,

Comilla, Khulna, Bar isa l , Jessore, Bogra and Rangpur) large size

has prov ided them with a market f o r the consumption of goods.

They are also getting sk i l l ed and unski l led labour force from

the i r hinterlands.

A large number of towns have appeared in class I I I ,

where composite scores range between -4 .30 to plus 4.30. These

are the poor ly industr ia l i zed but t e r t i a ry sector is prominant

in them. Faridpur, Jamalpur, Tangai l , Manikganj, Netrokona,

Naokhali , Rangamati, C o x ' s Bazar, Feni , Patuakhali , Dinajpur,

I W 110° 11? 252

B A N G L A D E S H

• DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC URBANIZATION COMPONENT-U ; 1981

> COMPONENT SCORES ( X = 0.00 ; SO = 8.594) 25

r - v -

25'N

24

I N O I A

; X. 1.5 SD

X.0.5 SD

/ X-0.5 SD

S X-I.5 SD

VERY HIGH . 12.89

HIGH • 4.30

MEDIUM - 4.30

LOW - 12.89

VERY LOW

rv'

) INDIA

U.'

10 0 20 , 4 0 , 60 t I I I I I I ' KM

A POPULATION SIZE OF TOWNS(PERSONS )

100.000-599,999

50.000 -99,999 r— 500.000-3.499.999

V. .-

BURMA

21 I

FIG.^iJO ill

REJUAN/90

253

Pabna and Naogaon have come the medium category.

F i f teen urban centers have been c lass i f i ed ( factor scores

minus 4.30 to minus 12.89) in group IV. They are basica l ly small

urban centers, namely - Muktagacha, Modhupur, Mirzapur,

Lakhmipur, Sunamganj, Fat ikchar i , Borguna, Meherpur, Jhenaidh,

Bheramara, Mirzaganj, Sherpur, Thakurganj, Gaibandha and

Ishurdi . The i r factor scores r e vea l the i r under developed

industrial structure where industries do not ex i s t , and they have

fa i led in industr ia l iz ing themselves . Most of the towns are

located in the newly designated d is t r i c t headquarter .

Only two towns (Derai and Forsha) f a l l in the group

V, where negat ive composite scores are more than -12.89. These

are the newly recognized upazila headquarter and there is

predominance in agr icultural economy.

4.4.3. Factor-I l l : Urban Functions

The number and complex i ty of the functions vary with

the s ize of the city and with other va r i ab l e s including the nature

of the areas which are s e r v ed . large urban centers are mostly

spec ia l i zed in some functions but small towns are d i v e r s i f i e d

in nature.

Fac to r - I l l exp la ins 16.0 per cent of the total variance

which is mainly contributed by thirteen va r i ab l e s . They have

254

the highest factor loadings under F a c t o r - I l l as is shown in column

3 in table 4.6 . The rotated factor matrix shows that the

highest po s i t i v e loadings have been recorded by l i teracy rate

(0.77561), which is fo l lowed by cinema ha l l seats (0.75740),

banks per lakh population (0,75651) , col leges (0.71619),

telephones (0.67679), FPC 6 MCWC (0.61635), post o f f i c e s

(0.61284), te lev is ions (0.59713), hospi ta l beds (0.52208) and

annual expenditure (0.50939). Only Kutcha house shows negative

factor loading.

To summarize the urban functions of the Bangladesh

c i t i es , composite factor scores have been computed and plotted

in f igure 4.11 for this factor , taking into account the contribution

of each va r i ab l e i r r e spec t i v e of the i r highest factor loadings.

Since the va r i ab l es explained by Fac t o r - I l l mostly relate to urban

functions, i . e . , cinema hal l seats, banks, FPC 8 MCWC,

te lev is ions , hospital bed,telephone and, c i v i c expenditure on public

works, the h igher pos i t i ve scores are associated with large s ize

c i t i es and lower scores with medium size towns. The negat ive

factor scores are all associated with small towns.

Out of f o r t y urban centers, only Bogra town exh ib i ts

v e r y high factor scores ( > 1 0 . 5 1 ) . On the contrary, a l l the

up.Qraded thanas (upaz i la ) have come under v e r y low factor

scores ( < 10.51) . These are Modhupur, Fat ikchar i , Derai,

Mirzaganj and Forsha. Other th i r t y four urban centers exh ib i t

F I G ^ . 1 1 REJUAN/90

256

high, medium and low factor scores between -10.51 to plus

10.51.

4.4.4 Strong variables in three factors, 1981

The number of s igni f icant va r i ab l es in the f i r s t

pr inc ipa l component was seventeen. Among the seventeen

important var iab l es , seven were most strong var iab les , which

exceeded factor loadings ± 0.75. The va r i ab l es are total urban

population (0.51803), area (0.88124) , degree of urbanization

(0.918081), population densi ty (0.77498) house hold density

(0.78698), news paper circulat ion per lakh population (0.84042),

and per capita water supply (0 .85073) .

In second component, 30 pe r cent var iab les have been

found as strong va r i ab l e . Within the twe l v e important va r iab l es ,

three were found to be v e r y strong which are population growth

rate (0.85458), dependency ra t i o (0.86074) and unemployment rate

( -0 .75174) .

Among the ten strong va r i ab l e s ( t ab l e 5.6 column-3),

three va r i ab l es were iden t i f i ed as v e r y strong, namely cinema

hal l seat per lakh population (0.75740), banks per lakh

population (0.75651) and l i t e racy rate (0 .77561) .

But in the to ta l i ty , the communality indicates more or

less same var iab les in f i r s t component. Few var iab les are also

257

corre lated with second and third component. According to

communality degree of urbanization (0.88478) has got the highest

load, among the th ir ty nine var iab l es , fo l lowed by total urban

population (0.85819), news paper circulat ion (0.84824), l i teracy

rate (0.81123), area (0.80584), household density (0.80018), etc.

The lowest communality has been found in park and playground

(0.14155).

4.5 URBAN DYNAMICS: 1961-1981

Now that the main patterns of changes in Bangladesh

c i t i e s have been outlined a more detai led analys is of demographic

and socio-economic d i f f e rent ia t ion and change during the 1961-

1981 per iod can be undertaken. This section of the study

undertake-s a detai led examination of the factor ia l ecology of forty

urban centers by considering the analyt ical approach. Instead

of th ir ty nine var iab l es , only twenty seven indicators are used,

\.Aiich ho^'c been i d e n t i f i e d as strong va r i ab l e s in urban dynamics

change.

As a mult ivariate stat ist ical technique, principal

component analys is was used to reduce the large number of

va r i ab l e s , many of them interre lated, to the few independent

underlying dimensions, cal led components ( f a c t o r s ) , which were

respons ib le for the changes and variat ions among the var iab les .

Detai led d e s c r i p t i v e names are given in appendix 1 .1 .

258

For the appl icat ion of pr incipal component analysis ,

a group of indiv idual var iab les wi th some common attr ibutes are

requ i red . Here twenty seven var iab l es have been chosen. With

thes-3 var iab les , corre lat ions among a l l the var iab les are

computed (Tab le 4 .8 ) a f ter calculating means and standard

deviat ions. Subsequently, correlat ions are reproduced and are

knoivn as factor loadings. They measure the degree of

genera l i zab i l i t y between each va r i ab l e and each factor . Factor

loadings are equivalent to correlat ions between the factors and

the o r i g ina l , va r i ab l e s . L ike correlation coe f f i c i ents these

loadings may take on values between + 1.0 and - 1.0. These

leadings re f l ec t quantitat ive re lat ionship of the va r i ab l e s .

Again the factor loadings for each factor are squared

and sum of the squared factor loading for each factor are called

eigenvalues and indicate the amount and proport ion of the total

var iance in the or ig ina l data accounted for by each fac tor .

Factors are extracted in descending order of magnitude and are

orthogonal or essent ia l ly uncorrelated with each o the r .

One of the tedious job in principal component analysis

i s the ident i f icat ion or meaningful naming of the newly produced

factors in the l ight of the or ig inal data.

Pr incipal Component Analys is (PCA) of the twenty seven

va r i ab l es related to the dimensions of demographic, social and

economic character is t i cs has produced 4 fac tors ( t ab l e 4 . 9 ) ,

s I Q

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259

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260

which together account for 63.02 per cent of the var iance,

eigenvalues exceeding unity. Whereas only 36.98 per cent of

the total var iance i s explained by the other twenty three

factors . Maximum variance i s expla ined by the f i r s t factor ,

i . e . , 24.72 per cent. It is fo l lowed by second (18.85 per cent ) ,

th i rd (10.81 pe r cent) and fourth (8 .64) fac tor . These four

factors have been discussed in deta i l to summarize the magnitude

of urban dynamics of Bangladesh c i t i es .

4.5.1 Factor-I: Demographic and Infrastructural Dynamics

Factor I expla ins 24.72 pe r cent of the total var iance.

It is c lose ly related with demographic infrastructure of urban

dynamics. The urban dynamics character i s we l l def ined with

v e r y high pos i t i ve loadings of change in percentage in population

density (C.89178), te lev is ion (0.85686), and park and playground

(0.82181). High loading has been recorded by secondary schools

(0.73450). pucca houses (0.71871), univers i ty (0.65247), per

capita annual expenditure (0.64700), co l lege (0.61753), bank

(0.59641), telephone connection (0.57425), percentage of urban

population change (0.52198) and buses (0.51878). There i s no

va r i ab l e v. ith v e r y high and high negative factor loadings of

Factor I . So, these var iab l es can be designated as the pr inc ipa l

indicants cf the demographic and infrastructural dynamics. Again

a l l the signif icant va r iab l es v i ewed in a general pe r spec t i v e

point to the factors which may be considered as infrastructure

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263

with demographic dimension.

Table 4.11 shows the internal re lat ionship and magnitude

of urban dynamics of d i f f e rent var iab les with the f i r s t factor .

An insight into the var iab les for Factor I r e vea l s that the higher

educational institution and employent are significant in

accelerating the rapid urban population growth but do not ens j re

change of area of the urban centers. Due to that, large urban

centers are becoming high population densi ty areas and are

causing presence on the c i v i c f a c i l i t i e s l i k e , bus serv i ces , bank,

park and playground, and houses. Pos i t i v e factor loadings have

been recorded for most of attr ibutes which are responsible for

rapid urban population growth, whi l e negat ive factor loadings

shows v e r y low or stagnant urban population in small urban

centers, spec i a l l y the newly upgraded thana (upaz i l a ) l eve l urban

centers. Sub-categories of the Factor I are g iven below :

Table 4.11 Factor I : Demographic and Infrastructural Dynamics

Dynamic Var iab les Magnitude of Var iables

(1) (2}

a) Urban dynamics in Demographic

Structure

i ) Urban population cliange (P and M)

i i ) Changes in population density (P and H)

264

b ) Housing and Expendi ture

c )

i ) Pucca houses (P and H)

i i ) Annual expendi ture (P and M)

Urban Fac i l i t i e s

i ) Parks and playgrounds (P and H)

i i ) Secondary Schools ( P and H)

i i i ) Colleges (P and M)

i v ) Univers i ty (P and M)

V ) Te lev is ions (P and H)

v i ) Banks (P and M)

v i i ) Buses (P and M)

v i i i ) Telephones ( P an M)

Note: P = Pos i t i v e , H = High, and M = Medium

The high demographic and infrastructural dynamics i s

associated with high p o s i t i v e loadings of the va r i ab l e s which

character ize high accelerat ion of population growth and change

of population dens i ty . On the contrary, negat ive loadings are

representing low l e ve l growth rate of population and low density

of population with stat ionary infrastructural f a c i l i t i e s . Higher

pos i t i v e loading has been found in urban population growth

(0.52198) and density o f population (0.89178), housing (0.71871)

and expenditure (0.64700) .

265

Growth of urban population and its affluence and

improvement of infrastructural f a c i l i t i e s are highly pos i t i v e l y

correlated v;ith educational institution and is very clear from

the pos i t i v e loadings f o r secondary schools per lakh population

(0.73450), co l lege per lakh population (0.61753) and univers i ty

per lakh population (0.65247). The intervar iab les relat ionship

also indicate that urban f ac i l i t i e s attract rural people, spec ia l l y ,

those who are educated and capable of doing job . Recreational

f ac i l i t i e s l i k e parks and playgrounds per lakh population

(0.87187), t e lev is ions per lakh population (0.85686), etc . also

pull the rural peop le . Special ized banks (0.59641) play an

important ro l e in .rural-urban migration. Credit f ac i l i t i es , general

savings and security of wealth can be insured through the banks,

and large urban centers are pos i t i v e l y correlated with the

banking f a c i l i t i e s .

Better housing f ac i l i t i e s (0.71871) and per capita annual

expenditure (0.64700) are pos i t i v e l y loaded with urban population

change and urban population densi ty .

High pos i t i v e urban population growth (0.59198), coupled

with the pos i t i v e loadings for pucca housing (0.71871), annual

expenditure (0.64700), telephones (0.57425), bus (0.51878), banks

(0.59641), te lev is ions (0.85685) and parks and playgrounds

(0.82181) indicates that the areas which record a high leve l

of urbanization in the i r demographic dimension, are dynamic

266

areas. They must show a concurrent iniprovement in the

a v a i l a b i l i t y of urban f a c i l i t i e s . Conversely , areas with low

proport ion of urban population growth have a lovi loadings of

urban f a c i l i t i e s . The magnitude of urban dynamics can be seen

in tab le 4.11. Large urban centers have a large absorpt i ve

capaci ty for white co l lar employees rather than for menial labour

but the small urban centers are character ized by an inverse

trend.

Figure 4.12 revea l s the spatial dimensions of the

demographic and infrastructural dynamics of Bangladesh during

the per iod 1961 to 1981. The factor scores, which are

standardised measure the urban centers on each factor . They

ha\-e been d i v ided into 5 'c lasses, ranging from v e r y high

pos i t i v e to v e r y high negat ive from the mean (where mean i s

z e r o ) . Factor scores more than x + 1.5 standard deviat ion

(SD) indicate v e r y high demographic and infrastructural growth

of urban centers. On the other hand, urban centers showing

factor scores more than x -1 .50 SD indicate v e r y low demographic

and infrastructural dynamics. Urban centers with moderate

dxTiamics show values within x + 0.5 and x -0 .5 standard

de\-iation.

Spatial pattern of urban centers of factor I (demographic

and infrastructure) can be observed in f igure 4.12. The map

shows that Dhaka SMA, Khulna SMA and Sylhet c i t y have secured

9To° 9]? B A N G L A D E S H

-267-

r 'J > DEMOGRAPHIC AND 1 NFRAST^UCTURAL DYNAMICS

/A COMPONENT-i : 1961-1981

"^COMPONENT SCORES( XrOOO >SD = 6 238 )

FIG. ' i .12 REJUAN/90

268

v e r y high posit ion ( f ac to r score >9 .357 ) . These towns are

scattered in town terr i tor ia l iy '^ iT i -Bangladesh. A f t e r the l iberat ion

of Bangladesh in 1971, Dhaka has become the capita l of

Bangladesh. Be fore l iberat ion , Dhaka was prov inc ia l capital

of Pakistan. It was not getting optimum fac i l i t i e s during that

t ime. A f ter independence Dhaka has been f lourishing v e r y fast .

Both the push factors of rural areas and pull factor of Dhaka

SMA have resulted in a high rate of migration from a l l over the

country into Dhaka. The recent migration rate recorded i s 16.59

per cent. However , the highest factor scores and high migration

is due to high employment opportunity and urban f ac i l i t i e s .

Regarding urban f a c i l i t i e s highest concentration have been

observed in educational institution, cinema hal l seats, news paper

circulation, banks, government o f f i c es , t e l ev is ions , hospitals,

telephones, parks and playgrounds^ pucca houses, annual

expenditure, e l e c t r i c i t y consumption and water supp ly . The:

ddvantages accuring from these idCtors have revo lut ionized the

l i f e of the urban centers and introduced dynamigm in them.

Dhaka has become a c i t y having great advantages and

opportunit ies in Bangladesh, fo l lowed by the Khulria and Sylhet.

khulna is character i zed by heavy industry and i s the second

largest sea port of the country. Sylhet has spec ia l i zed in trade

and commerce, and natural gas f i e l d . It was noted in the

chapter^ that the Dhaka, Khulna, and Sylhet have extra ordinary

urban growth and once again it i s proved here . Th i s has caused

269

ve r y high factor scores ( > 9.357) in demographic and

infrastructural dynamics. On the other hand, not a single urban

center has come under v e r y lov/ factor scores ( < -9 .357 ) .

Urban centers having high factor scores (3.119 to 9.357)

comprise Naringdi, Comilla, Rangamati, Jessore, Jhenaidh,

Rangpur and Ishurd i . Among these, Comil la, Jessore and Rangpur

are c lass I c i t i e s , Narsingdi and Ishurd i are c lass 11 and

Jhenaidh and Rangamati class I I I towns. However, a l l of these

are v e r y dynamic urban centers. Due to the backwardness of

Chittagong h i l l tract area, government has taken nummber of

development programmes in Rangamati town and shi f t ing the plain

people in h i l l t racts area with some land as an incent ive. Class

I I I c i ty Jhenaidh is f lourishing because of the newly constructed

road from Dhaka to North Bengal and because of upgrading the

administration h ie rarchy from subdiv is ion to d i s t r i c t l e v e l .

A f t e r renovation of the Jessore a irport and decentral izat ion po l i cy

of the government, Jhenaidh has been growing fast . Narsingdi

i s rising as an sa te l l i t e town of Dhaka SMA. Tex t i l e industries

and subsid iary business are helping the growth of the town.

Comilla, Jessore and Rangpur c i t i es have secured high factor

scores due to the i r being old d i s t r i c t headquarter and multi-

dimensional urban a c t i v i t i e s . However , most of these urban

centers under the category high scores , have been recognized

as a dynamic urban centers.

270

There i s a la rge number of urban centers in medium

group factor scores (minus 3.119 to plus 3.119) of demographic

and infrastructural dynamics. Manikganj, Netrokona, Cox ' s Bazar,

Feni, Bhola and Meherpur are newly c lass i f ied d istr ic t

headquarters and res t are o ld d i s t r i c t headquarters, nanely

Far idpur , Tangai l , Jamalpur, Noakhali , Barisal , Patuakhali,

Dinajpur and Pabna. These c i t i e s have a normal population

growth. ( T a b l e 4 . 1 ) .

Urban centers grouped in low factor scores have factor

score values ranging between -3.119 to -9.357. These are newly

designated upazi la or upgraded thana headquarters or new d is tr ic t

headquarters and include Muktagacha, Modhupur, Mirzapur,

Lakhmipur, Sunamganj, Fat ikcher i , Derai, Borguna, Mirzaganj,

Bogra, Sherpur, Gaibandha and Forsha (F igure 4 .12 ) . Within

these, Forsha, Mirzaganj , and Derai are at the lower most l eve l

of demographic and infrastructural dynamics in Bangladesh (Table

4 .10 ) .

4.5.2. Factor II : Urban Deterioration with Demographic and

Employment Dynamics

Urban deter iorat ion is the second most important

component explaining 18.85 p e r cent of total var iance . It is

mainly contributed by the fo l lowing s i x v a r i ab l e s in tab le 4.12.

271

Table 4.12 : Urban Deterioration (1961-1981) with Demographic

and Employment Variables

Dynamics var iab les Magnitude of va r iab l es

a ) Demographic and t e r r i t o r i a l

i ) Urban population change (N and H)

i i ) Sex ratio (No F/1000 M) (N and H)

i i i ) Area change (N and M)

b ) Employment and other urban f a c i l i t i e s

i ) Unemployment (N and M)

i i ) Pucca road (N and M)

i i i ) Cinema hall (N and M)

i v ) Ter t ia ry ac t i v i t y (N and M)

v ) Annual expenditure (N and M)

v i ) Water supply (N and M)

Note: N = Negat ive , H = High and M = Medium magnitude of urban

d^Tiamics.

A v e r y interesting feature not iceable in table 4.12 i s

that a l l the var iab les are negat i ve ly corre lated with component

I I . The rotated factor matrix shows that the highest negat ive

272

loading has been recorded in percentage change of t e r t i a r y

a c t i v i t y ( -0 .83175) , fo l lowed by sex ra t io (F per 1000 M)

( -0 .74983) . Moderate negat ive loading has been recorded for

unemployment rate ( -0 .69869) , percentage change of pucca road

( -0 .67743) , percentage of urban population change ( -0 .66309) ,

percentage change of annual expenditure ( -0 .63229) , change of

cinema ha l l seat in percent ( -0 .62009) , percentage of water

supply change ( -0.54438) and percentage of area change

( -0 .50031) . A l l the high loading var iab les are negat i ve l y

corre la ted , with factor I I , due to that the factor has been

designated as urban deter iorat ion.

The high negat ive loading f o r percentage change of urban

population ( -0,66309) indicates that large changes of population

during the 20 years (1961 to 1981) per iod have taken place

through rural to urban migration which is not conducive to the

development of urban infrastructure l i ke pucca road ( -0 .66309 ) ,

cinema hal l ( -0 .62009) , water supply ( -0.54438) e tc . The large

number of migrants who move into urban areas contribute to the

ever increasing f o rce of unemployed and underemployed ( -0 .69869)

people thus contributing to urban deter iorat ion in demographic

and as we l l as socio-economic sphere . As evident from the table

4 - 1 2 , sex rat io i s indicating a v e r y high negat ive factor loading

( -0 .74983) . It means v e r y high rate of male migration from rural

areas to urban areas . As a result urban f a c i l i t i e s and job

273

opportunities are gradual ly decreasing. Government can not

p rov ide the incoming people with urban amenities. So the people

in t e r t ia ry sector ( -0 .83175) , spec i a l l y , in menial labour force

are pressuriz ing the normal urban a c t i v i t y and forming urban

quarter areas (CUS, 1976) and slums (CUS, 1978) along the

ra i lway l ines and in pocket settlements in the vaccant places

of middle class res ident ia l areas and inner -c i t i es .

Figure .if.13 dep ic ts the spat ia l aspects of demographic

and employement dynamics of Bangladesh (Factor I I ) . It is

interesting to note that the composite factor scores range between

minus 10.69 to plus 8.16 ( t ab l e 4 .10 ) . As the map revea l s ,

a few of the urban centers of Bangladesh have recorded v e r y

high negat ive scores , i . e . , Dhaka, Sy lhet , Rangamati, Khulna and

Jhenaidh. Three large c i t ies are h i gh ly dominated by ra i l and

road network, trade and industry but poor rate of increase in

area, cinema ha l l , annual expa id i tu re etc . Due to that Dhaka,

Khulna and Sylhet theciseh-es are contributing high negat ive scores,

whi le two smal ler urban centers have accounted f o r v e r y high

pos i t i v e \-alues. These are Mirzaganj and Porsha (F igure 4.13

and table 4 .10 ) . It is because out of twenty seven va r i ab l e s

'na\-ing high corre lat ion with Fac to r - I l l , twa i t y f i v e are

negat ive ly corre lated and among them nine are h i gh l y negat i ve l y

corre la ted .

274 ,1

•J- \ / .'Vj N V •

B A N G L A D E S H I

URBAN DETERIORATION WITH DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC DYNAMICS , ^ COMPONENT - II 1961-19 81 274

> COMPONENT SCORES( X : 0.00 ; S D = 5 . 3 5 A )

F I G A . 1 3 REJUAN/90

275

The distr ibut ion of composite factor scores on the map

c l ea r l y depict that Narsingdi , Comilla, Jessore, Rangpur,

Thakurganj and Ishurdi towns have high negat ive ( -9.046 to -

-2 .682) factor scores. They are fo l lowed by medium (minus

2.682 to plus 2.682) factor scores in the towns of Far idpur ,

Tangai l , Jamalpur, Xetrokona, Manikganj, Noakhali , Cox ' s Bazar,

Feni, Bar isa l , Patuakhali , Bhola, Barguna, Meherpur, Dinajpur,

and Pabna. Reasons respons ib le for high negat ive and medium

(both negat ive and p o s i t i v e ) scores in these towns v a r y from

one town to another. They ca r ry trading, commerce, industr ies

and other urban functions, which is attracting people from other

areas and is changing the pattern of these urban centers and

of other towns in the country from where the people have moved.

No spec i f i c regional pattern has been observed but highest

negat ive category of towns are mainly in central to northern part

of Bangladesh.

High pos i t i v e scores ( 2.682 to 8.046) have been found

in small s i ze new d i s t r i c t or upa^.ila l e v e l urban centers, which

are Muktagacha, Modhupur, Mirzaganj , Lakhmipur, Sunamganj,

Fa t ikcher i , Derai, Bheramara, Bogra, Naogaon, Sherpur and

Gaibondha. They do not have so much kinet ic force which can

attract bulk of migratory peop le and g i v e them urban opportunity .

However the rate of grov.th of va r i ab l es in factor I l i s o f v e r y

high magnitudes.

276

A deeper study of component scores h igh l i ghts a

re lat ionship between the s i ze of urban centers and Fac to r - I I .

Negat ive scores are more pronounced fo r the large tovms/cit ies,

vi/hereas pos i t i v e scores dominate the pattern of small towns.

4.5.3. Factor II I : Deterioration Urbanization with the decline

of primary sector

Th is component accounts for 10.81 per cent of the total

var iance . It i s d i v e r s i f i e d in nature, the re fo re , i t i s d i f f i cu l t

to designate any sat i s fac tory nomenclature. This component is

character ized by negat ive factor loadings. Out of twenty seven

va r i ab l e s , twenty two are negat i ve ly loaded with the Factor I I I .

The th i rd component r e f l e c t s deter iorat ing urbanization of

Bangladesh urban centers re lated to population change during the

pe r i od , 1961 to 1981 ( -0 .67595) , as a result of in-migration to

the urban centers, but v e r y high negat ive loading has been

rocordod for pr imary a c t i v i t y (-0.7525G) and moderate negat ive

loadiiiR for strnul Jlghl ( tahln 4.i;-l ) .

Tablo 4-13 Dotorioration Urbanization, 1961-1901

Dynamic va r i ab l e s Magnitude of va r i ab l es

a) DivurtiifiuU Urbani/.filluu

i ) Degree of urbanization N and M)

277

i i ) Hlroot l ight (N and M)

111) Primary a c t i v i t y (N and H)

Note: N = Negat ive , M = Moderate and H = High

The high negat ive loading of pr imary a c t i v i t y ( -0 .75256)

vHth modoratu uoKutivo loading of degree of urbanization

( -0.67595) revea l that the increase of urban population is

associated with the decrease of pr imary a c t i v i t y . As a result ,

urban f a c i l i t i e s are going down r a p i d l y , e . g . , s t reet l ight ( -

0.62539), e l e c t r i c i t y consumption ( -0.40604) etc . in large urban

centers. Small urban centers are getting bet ter f a c i l i t i e s re lated

to street l i ght and e l e c t r i c i t y consumption.

Factor scores for this dimension are presented in f igure

4.14. Out of twenty seven va r i ab l e s , twenty two are negat ive ly

loaded. Negat ive scores are associated with large c i t i e s and

pos i t i v e scores are re lated to small towns. Dhaka .Khulna and

Sylhet have high negat ive component scores ( > -4 .614) and small

towns l i k e Porsha, Mirzaganj , Derai , e tc . have pronounced high

pos i t i v e component scores ( > 4 .614) . In between these are

moderate factor scores . Far idpur, Tangai l , Jamalpur, Netrokona,

Comil la, Noakhali , C o x ' s Bazar, Feni , Fat ikchar i , Bar igal ,

Jessore, Bhola, Meherpur, Bheramara, Dinajpur, Rangpur, Naogaon

and Sherpur have moderate l e v e l of deter iorat ing urbanization.

SFE ~ "91? ~ ^If

B A N G L A D E S H

f-DETERIORATING URBANIZATION WITH DECLINE OF PRIMARY ACTIVITY ; ^ COMPONENT-UI :1961-198I

^ ^ COMPONENT SCORESC X : 0.00 ; SD = 3.075)

> ^ VERY HIGH X^I.SSD ^

I ^ HIGH

^ MEDIUM / X - 0 . 5 S 0 ^ -1.538

^ LOW \ X-1.5 50 X -A.61A

-V. VERY LOW

26

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INDIA

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\

POPULATION 5:2£ C* " ; A-NSCPERSONS )

100,000-599,999 50,000 - 99,999

11 0 20 , iO . 60

— 500,000-3.499,999

\ 0. 21.

^ A

BURMA

21

9|0 _9|1_ 9|2° REJUAN/90

279

4,5.4 Factor-rV: Infrastnictural Dynamics in less Urbanized

Towns

The four::-! component explaining 8.64 per cent of the

total var iance is Infrastructural progress in less urbanized to\.'ns.

I t is character i zed by moderate pos i t i v e loadings for percentage

change of dependency rat io (0 .74413) , change of percentage in

post o f f i c e (0 .63245) , per cent increase of buses (0.56775) and

changes of banks in percentage (0 .52264) .

The stud:-- of the loadings indicates that infrastructural

progress has beer, accelerating in small and less urbanized towns.

High pos i t i v e f a c : : r loadings is the indicator of large immigration

in the town. It is also a fact that high dependency i s found

to be associated v.'ith small and less urbanized towns in

Bangladesh.

Table 4.14: Infrastructural Progress, 1961-1981.

Dynamic va r i ab l e s Magnitude of var iab les

a ) High dependency with urban f ac i l i t i e s

i ) Dependency rat io (P and M;

i i ) Pos: O f f i c es (P and M)

i i i ) Buscf (P and M)

i v ) Ban.<3 P and M)

Note: P = Pos i t i v e and M = Moderate

280

Tab le 4.14 sho\. s that the magnitude of infra structural

progress in urban dynamics character ized by pos i t i ve growth

and development in urban functions but they are moderate ly

associated in the factor ial re la t ion . A balanced dependency ratio

i s found in small town and they are character ized by slow

gro\;th of urban f ac i l i t i e s .

Figure 4.15 Factor-IV records v e r y high scores of this

component f o r Dhaka, Comilla and Jessore. however , the small

urban centers l i k e Rangamati, C o x ' s Bazar, Bhola, Jhenaidh',

Naogaon and Ishurdi are gradual ly developing with respect to

urban f a c i l i t i e s (F igure 4.16 and table 4 .9 ) . The

decentral izat ion po l i cy has g iven new impetus to urban gro\/th

in Bangladesh. Ho\^ever, i t i s v e r y hard to make any concrete

comment on factor IV, because it deals with only one dimension

of urban dynamics.

4.6 FACTORIAL RELATIONSHIPS OF URBAN DYNAMICS

Based on urban dynamics factor s co res , a corre lat ion

matrix has been calculated and presented in table 4.15.

B A N G L A D E 5 H

281 w

^ X C > I N F R A S T R U C T U R A L DYNAMICS IN LESS URBANIZED TOWNS ^ s j^-J >

\ ^ COMPONENT-IV 1961-19S1

^ ^ COMPONENT S C O R E S ( X = 0 0 0 ; S D = 2 595 ) •^'v-, f \

VERY H IGH • 3-892

H I G H .1 297

F I G A , 1 5 REJUAN/90

282

Table 4.15 Correlat ion matrix. 1961, 1981

Factors

1. Demographic 1.000

infrastructure

2. Demographic -G.721 1.000

unemployment

3. Economics -0.896 0.817 1.000

demographic

4. Demographic 0.822 -0.572 -0.772 1.000

urban f a c i l i t i e s

The above table sho'..s the re lat ionship among the four

factors of urban dynamics of Bangladesh. A negat ive correlation

has been found in demographic infrastructure and demographic

unemployment ( r = 0.721) , and the same situation is also

observed in factor I and factor I I ( r = - 0 .896 ) . But strong

v e r y high pos i t i v e correlation is found in demographic

infrastructure and demographic urban f a c i l i t i e s . Again the

corre lat ion betv. eon demographic unemployment and demographic

Economic (p r imary ac t i v i t y ) have a high pos i t i ve

unemployment and demographic - urban f a c i l i t i e s are correlated

and a moderate negat ive correlation has emerged ( r = -0 .572 ) .

283

When demographic and primary a c t i v i t y correlates with

demographic and urban f ac i l i t i e s , i t y i e l d s negative correlation

among the var iables ( r = -0 .772 ) .

The above analysis r evea l s that urban population growth

i s d i r e c t l y correlated with urban f a c i l i t i e s and employment

opportunit ies.

4.7 CHANGES IN URBAN STATUS

In the f inal stage this study an attempt is being made

to analyze inter-urban d ispar i t y and change of direct ion (pos i t i v e

or negat ive ) grouping analysis on the d i f f e r en t dimensions of

urban dynamics as revealed by the pr inc ipa l component method.

To analyse the changes in o v e r a l l status of urban

centers in Bangladesh, component scores data of 1961 and 1981

have been considered and is depicted in f i gu re 4.16 (A and B)

and 4.17 (A and B ) . The urban growth dynamics has beon shov;n

in f igure 4.10 A and B ) .

4.7.1 Grouping of High Urbanization, and Territorial Stress and

Housing Condition, 1961

Within the four components, two factors are of major

signi f icance as they explain about 50 per cent of the total

var iance . An attempt has bet^n made to determine the r e l a t i v e

cn

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286

posit ion of the urban centers as revea led b y a combination of

Factors I and I I , because these two components are most

s igni f icant .

The resul ts of the grouping ana lys is i s presented in

f igure 4.16 (A and B ) for 1961, where urban center scores on

high urbanization, and t e r r i t o r ia l stress and housing condition

are p lo t t ed . The stepwise grouping of urban centers according

to s imi lar i ty of urban ilynamics, or p rox imi ty on the graph has

been categor ized with the formation of the four groups i . e . ,

A, B, C and D ( f i gure 4 .16 ) , as shown in tab le 4 .3 . Each of

these groups is character ized by the dynamic nature with respect

to the two leading dimensions of urban dynamics. Group-A

includes urban centers with r e l a t i v e l y good performance on both

the demographic and urban amenit ies. Here, a l l have pos i t ive

( i . e . , above mean) scores on both the component I and I I . This

includes the urban centers of Dhaka SMA, Far idpur , Tangail,

Comil la, Sy lhet , Khulna SMA, Bar isa l , Jessore , Jhenaidh, Bogra,

Dinajpur, Fabna, Rangpur and Naogaon. The towns in Group-B

do better on demographic urbanization than t e r r i t o r i a l stress

and housing conditions for a l l have pos i t i v e scores on component

I and negat ive (be low mean) scores on component I I . The towns

of Group A are d i v e r s i f i e d in nature with some agr icul ture based

industrial establ ishments and administrat ive function* Group B

i s character ized by small and cottage industr ies . Group B

consists of towns Jamalpur in north and Noakhali and Feni in

287

in southern part of Bangladesh. Only two towns belong to Group

C, namely - Narsingdi and Patuakhali . It is pos i t i v e ( i . e . ,

above mean) scores on t e r r i t o r i a l stress and housing conditions

(component I I ) . Out of f o r t y urban centers, more than f i f t y

percent belong to Group D. Both the components have negat ive

( i . e . . belov/ mean) scores . Under group D, fo l lowing towns can

be noted - towns are Mankiganj, Muktagacha, Netrokona,

Modhupur, Mirzapur, Rangamati, Cox 's Bazar, Lakhmipur,

Sunanganj, Fat ikchar i , Derai, Bhola, Barguna, Meherpur, and

Bheramara (F igure 4.16 A and B ) . «

4.7.2 High Urbanization, and Demographic and Economic Status,

1981

Among the three components, f i r s t two factors have

been chosen fo r grouping analysis and these two components

explain 46.60 per cent total var iance. Third component has been

excluded due to. i t s ambiguous nature. For grouping analys is

a quadrangular graphic method has been app l i ed . Abscissa

indicates the component-I and ordinates the component-II. In

this method the scores for the urban centers o f Bangladesh on

the f i r s t two components have been plotted g raph ica l l y and

regional var iat ion is dep ic ted in f igure 4.17 (A and B ) .

F i rs t quadrant (Group A ) includes forteen urban centers,

namely - Dhaka, Tangai l , Narsingdi , Comilla, Sy lhe t , Noakhal i ,

288

Feni, Khulna, Bar i sa l , Jessore, Bogra, Dinajpur, Pabna, and

Rangpur. Group A indicates a good performance in both the

factors (components I and I I ) which have pos i t i v e ( i . e . above

mean] scores. No urban center has been found in quadrant four

(Group B ) . It indic iates that demographic urbanization i s more

prominant than urban f a c i l i t i e s . Quadrant two (Group - C) shews

the higher demographic progress than urban f a c i l i t i e s and has

negative scores (be low mean) on component-I. The quadrant-II

has incorporated seven urban centers, namely - Faridpur,

Rangamati, C o x ' s Bazar, Patuakhali, Bhola, Thakurganj, and

Ishurdi . Both the components are negat i ve l y associated in Group-

D (Quadrant- I I I ) . Jamalpur, Manikganj, Muktagacha, Netrokor.a,

Modhupur, Mirzapur, Lakhmipur, Sunamganj, Fat ikcher i , Derai,

Barguna, Meherpur, Jhenaidh, Bheramara, Mirzaganj, Naogacn,

Sherpur, Gaibandha and Forsha are in Group D.

4..7.3 GROUPING OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND INFRASTRUCTURAL

DYNAMICS, 1961-1981

Among four factors, Factor I and IV have been taken

for grouping analys is of urban dynamics of Bangladesh for 1961

to 1981 pe r i od , because other two factors (Factor I I and I I I )

are ambiguous in nature and negat ive ly corre la ted with size of

the urban centers . These two factors exp la ined more than one

third of the total var iance. The result of the grouping anah'sis

i s shown in f igure where urban center scores on

289

Demographic situation of urban dynamics and on Infrastructure

are p lo t t ed . The s tepwise grouping of urban centers have been

c lass i f i ed according to s imi lar i ty of urban dynamics, or

prox imi ty on the graph, was terminated with the formation of

the four groups shown in quadrant A, B, C, and D ( f i gure 4.18)

based on the table 4.10. It i s showing demographic and

infrastructure of urban dynamics.

Group A includes the urban centers with r e l a t i v e l y

good performance on both demographic situation and

infrastructural progress . It includes Dhaka SMA, Khulna SMA,

Sy lhet , Bar isa l , Comilla, Rangamati, Patuakhali, Jhenaidh,

Dinajpur, Rangpur, and I shurd i . Al l have pos i t i v e ( i . e . , above

average ) scores on Factor I and 11/ The urban centers in

Group B have better posit ion with regard to demographic status

than on infrastructural progress , f o r one has pos i t i ve scores

on Factor I and f i v e have negat ive (be low average ) scores on

Factor IV.

Urban centers in Group A tend to be h i gh l y urban and

industr ia l ly deve loped with better urban f a c i l i t i e s , whi l e the

urban centers in Group B, i . e . , Far idpur, Netrokona, C o x ' s

Bazar, Bhola, Thakurgaon etc . along the mid-northem s ide

( except Chittagong region) of Bangladesh form the main

agricultural area. Group C, consists of the towns of Manikganj,

Pabna and Noagaon and they are character ised by negat ive scores

290

on demographic status (component I ) and pos i t i ve scores on

infrastructural progress (Factor I V ) . These towns are worse

than A and B group towns wi th respect to demographic status,

but on an average s l ight ly p r og r e s s i v e than B though obv ious ly

worse than A on demographic status. Group D is the most

r e g r e s s i v e among a l l , with consistent ly negat ive scores on both

the Factors I and IV. Out of f o r t y , f i f t een belong to this

group i . e . , Muktagacha, Modhupur, Mirzaganj, Lakhmipur,

Sunamganj, Fat ikchar i , Deria, Barguna, Meherpur, Bherama,

Bogra, Sherpur, Gaibandha and Porsha. Except Bogra, other

forteen towns are newly deve loped with v e r y low rate of

immigration and poor urban f a c i l i t i e s . Urban centers comprising

these four groups have been mapped in f igure 4.18.

4 .7 .4 Comparative Analysis of 1961, 1981 and 1961-1981

A comparative analysis of f i gures 4.16, 4.17 and 4.18

shows that the urban centers in Bangladesh have gone through

a cons iderab le change in urban dynamics. In the year 1961,

Group A had fourteen urban centers, which were character ized

by pos i t i v e scores in both comparat ive and same number of urban

centers have been found in 1981 ( for teen urban centers ) .

However , three towns were added between 1961-1981, namely

N'oakhali and Feni from Group-B and Narsingdi from Group-

C. A s imi lar same number of urban centers dropped out l i k e

291

- Far idpur from Group-C and Jhenaidh and Naogaon from Group-

D. E v e r y y ea r , due to high ra te of bank erosion of Padma

r i v e r , thousands of people become homeless in the d i s t r i c t of

Pabna, Rajshahi , Faridpur and Kusht ia . Subsequently, the

homeless peop l e take shel ter in the nearby urban center i . e . ,

Far idpur, Jhenaidh, Pabna etc . But the component I I shows

that the i r f a c i l i t i e s are not increasing with re lat ion to population

growth.

A big of peop le takes place f low into Dhaka from

Comilla, Noakhali , Mymensingh, Far idpur, Bar isa l , Rajshahi

Manikganj and Pabna, Distr ic ts (Rash id , 1977; Rejuan, 1988).

So, the urban f ac i l i t i e s and amenities are on the downward s ide

in Dhaka SMA. Sylhet c i ty has increased her socio-economic

status through the presence of natural gas. The other reason

for the increase in the socio-economic status of Sylhet i s that

members of e v e r y fami ly are working out s ide the country.

The fore ign money i s being ut i l i zed for the improvement of

qual i ty of urban l i f e .

Figure 4.18 A shows s imi la r i t y with f igure 4.17 A

(1981). The urban growth dynamics shows that large urban

centers are growing f as t by both demographic and infrastructural

dynamics. Dhaka and Khulna are acconTnodating a large number

of immigrants from r ivera in area of Bangladesh, but Comilla and

Jessore have improved the ir status through introduction of new

293

infrastructural f a c i l i t i e s as we l l by development of small and

cottage industr ies.

Urban dynamics grouping also shows that small towns

near to large c i t i es are growing f a s t with relation to

demographic context. Tangail , Manikganj, and Narsingdi have

been f lourishing as sate l l i t e towns. Dinajpur, Jamalpur,

Noakhali, Rangamati, Patuakhali , Jhenaidh and Ishurdi have been

contributing high rate of urbanization both in demographic and

infrastructural f a c i l i t i e s and urban amenities. Bar isa l , Dinajpur,

Khulna are the surplus r ice producing d i s t r i c t s and they have

largest number of r i c e milling units, f lour mi l l and modern

biscuit factor ies (Rashid, 1977). Jamalpur and Ishurdi towns

f lourished due to sugar mil ls and i t s ' by product industries.

Graph 4.17 shows that not a s ing le urban center i s

in quadrant IV (Group-B) . However in 1961, Jamalpur, Noakhali

and Feni were found in the group-B. These three urban centers

are character ized by higher rate of population increase than

urban f a c i l i t i e s . Urban dynamics grouping (Group-B) shows that

a v e ry high rate of population growth rather than

infrastructural dynamics (F i g . 4.18 A ) .

As ev ident from quadrant-II (Group-C) , Faridpur,

Rangamati, Cox ' s Bazar, Patuakhali , Bhola, Thakurganj, and

Ishurdi are under pressure from immigrants from the surrounding

d i s t r i c t s . Here the centri fugal factors are more prominant than

294

centripeutal f o rces . Group-C ( f i gure 4.18) shows that only three

towns Manikganj, Pabna and Naogaon have deve loped considerably

in relat ion to socio-economic and infrastructural dynamics. A l l

the urban centers in Group-D (quadrant - I I I ) have been

handicapped by both demographic and socio-economic dimensions

of urban dynamics. Except Bogra town, other fourteen towns

of this groups per form functions mostly based on primary and

white - co l lared adminis t rat ive t e r t i a ry a c t i v i t i e s . Bogra town

f lourished during the 1901 to 1961, but a f t e r that i t declined

gradually (F igure 2 .12 ) .

295

REFERENCES

Bose, A .N. (1978), Calcutta and Rural Bengal, Calcutta.

Bauer, P . T . and Yamey, B .S . (1951) , "Economic Progress and occupational Dis t r ibut ion" , Economic Journal, LXI , pp. 741-55.

^.lyers, G.C. (1967), "Migrat ion and modernization: the case of Puerto Rico, 1950-60", Social and Economic Studies, Vo l . 16 (4 ) , pp . 425-431.

Rao, R .R.M. (1981), Growth of Cities, De lh i .

Rashid, H. (1977), Geography of Bangladesh, Dhaka, pp . 496-515.

Rejuan, B. (1988), Demographic Correlates of Urban Dynamics: A Case Study of Bangladesh, Unpublished M.Ph i l d issertat ion, AMU, A l i ga rh .

CHAPTER V

CONCLUSIONS

The main purpose of the study was to i d en t i f y the

nature and magnitude (Kinet ic direct ion of strong va r i ab l e s ) of

urban dynamics in Bangladesh. To attain the ob j e c t i v e , some

background study has been done for understand the s i te and

situation, and as we l l as to get insight into the problem. The

sectors of invest igat ion were dynamics of urbanization in the

third wor ld , evolution and c lass i f i cat ion of urban settlements

in Bangladesh, and spat ia l and temporal dimension of urban

dynamics of f o r ty selected urban centers of Bangladesh.

The study has tr ied to understand the urban dynamics

through fac tor ia l e co logy . The conclusion of fac tor ia l ecology

are confined within the frame work of f o r t y urban centers of

Bangladesh. Major f indings of the f ac to r ia l eco logy of urban

dynamics are g iven in the fol lowing paragraphs.

To iden t i f y the strong va r i ab l e s in urban dynamics

study for the per iod 1961, 1974 and 1981, in e v e r y cases same

corre lates have been considered for f o r t y selected urban

centers. Here corre lat ion matrix of the working var iab l es has

297

been computed with mxm dimensions, which explains the

re lat ionship of one va r i ab l e with the o the r . From th is mxm

matr ix, another matrix of equal dimensions has been computed,

which shows the relationship- of a l l the v a r i a b l e s with d i f f e rent

factors . Along with this matr ix , fac tor loading of rotated

factors, e igenvalues, communality, and cummulative percentages

of e igenvalues have been computed. In a l l , four major

components in 1961 and 1974, and three components in 1981

summarising more than ' three score ' of the total var iance were

explained in each of three cross-sect ional ana lys i s .

A number of ecological dimensions and ac t i v e var iab les

have changed during the last three census p e r i ods . A l i s t of

strong va r i ab l e s is g iven in appendix 5.1.

On the basis of strong va r i ab l es , p r inc ipa l component

analysis of urban dynamics study has incorporated twenty seven

var iab l es ( excep t rat io type ind ica tors ) . It has y i e l d ed four

dimensions of urban dynamics with 63.02 percent of total

var iance. However, the dynamics analys is f a i l ed to account

for as much of the total variance as the three cross-sect ional

analysis . The most important dimension of eco log ica l change

is the demographic and infrastructural dynamics, which was

fo l lowed by urban deter iorat ion with demographic and employment

f a c i l i t i e s . Deteriorating Urbanization with the dec l ine of primary

sector , and Infrastructural progress in less urbanized towns, where

298

the v a r i a b l e s explained 24.72, 18.85, 10.81 and 8.64

r e s p e c t i v e l y .

Study of the f i r s t component r e v ea l s that large urban

centers ( s p e c i a l l y primate c i t y ) a r e character ized by para l l e l

development of demographic dynamics and urban dynamics with

some except ions l ike - Bogra, Pabna, Bar isa l , etc . These are

large to medium sized urban centers but they are getting low

urban f a c i l i t i e s (component-I ) . On the other hand, medium s ize

urban centers l ike-Jhenaidh and Ishurdi scored high in the same

component. Both the towns have f a c i l i t i e s o f good roads and a i r

routes. It revea ls that access ib i l i t y p l ayed an important ro le

in the growth and development of the towns. From regional

point of v i e w , most of the urban centers with high scores are

located in the northern d i v i s i on , along the main road and

ra i lway routes, but this region i s most backv.ard. The score

has become high due to recent development programme under

operation both in towns and rural areas. But the low scores

oriented towns did not fo l low any par t i cu lar pattern of regional

grouping ( F i g . 4 .12 ) .

D i f f e rent character ist ics are found in component-II in

map 4 .13. Here demographic dynamics and urban functions are

negat ive ly associated. Some of the urban functions (component-

I I ) a r e r ap i d l y developing more in small towns than larger

c i t i es , where population growth and area l expansion is also v e r y

299

fast and in r e v e r s e relat ion with s i ze of the c i t y . Here, small

urban centers are scoring high and do not fo l low any regional

pattern. The same character is t ic i s observed in component-I l l ;

i . e . , degree of urbanization, street l i gh t and pr imary ac t i v i t y

are negati\'ely corre lated with the component (appendix 5 . 2 ) .

So the analys is corroborates that la rge urban centers are not

a lways associated with f i r s t growth in a l l urban functions, they

have slow progress or are stagnent in some functions as compared

to medium and small towns ( F i g . 4 .14 ) .

High dependency has been found in small or less

urbanized towns. Sometimes small urban centers are

character ized with medium to high magnitude in urban dynamics

va r i ab l es , l i ke -Pos t O f f i ce , Bank, Bus, e tc . Cox ' s bazar, Feni,

Naogaon, Thakurgaon, Gaibandha, Ishurdi and Rangamati have

high component score but s i z e of these towns are small to

medium ( F i g . 4 .15 ) . In regional context, high score urban

centers are spread out hor izonta l ly through the country.

The grouping analys is of component I and II proved

that Primacy of Dhaka c i ty i s doubtless. Rangamati is a small

town but got p lace in Group A ( F i r s t Quadrant) due to high rates

of infrastructural development. It Government is looking a f ter

upliftment of i ts environmental conditions and qual i ty of urban

l i f e . It indicates that urban dynamics also depend upon

300

government p o l i c y . Jhenaidh is also found in the same group

for h igher a c c e s s i b i l i t y . Bogra is a la rge urban center, but

i s character ized by deteriorat ing urban condit ions. It again

proves that s i ze of urban center i s not main c r i t e r ia for higher

magnitude in urban dynamics. Correlation matrix of four urban

d\Tiamics components again dictates that demographic dynamics

i s moderate ly corre lated with urban f a c i l i t i e s and employment

opportunit ies. That, i s , that urban dynamics does not always

fal low the path of population dynamics, but the population

dynamics genera l ly f o l l ows the s ize of the urban center with

some except ion, l ike -Bar i sa l , Pabna, Dinajpur.

Population h ierarchy and urban functions hierarchy

are not moving pa ra l l e l y . Except Dhaka and Khulna in top and

Mirzagong, Derai and Porsha in bottem. According to

character is t i cs of primate c i t y , Dhaka a lways belonged in top

order of h i e ra rchy ( see Photos) f o l l owed by Khulna. Some

changes of h ierarchy have been found in medium class urban

centers but small towns are more or less stable in the lowest

order of h i e ra r chy .

In t o ta l i t y , urban dynamics analysis revea ls that

demographic dynamics is moderately corre lated with urban

f a c i l i t i e s and employment opportunit ies and that the urban

dynamics does not a lways fo l low the path of population

dynamics. Population dynamics genera l ly f o l l ows the s ize of

urban centers, though there some except ion, l i ke -Bar i sa l , Pabna,

301

Partial view of Dhaka city: Commercial Area.

Partial view of Dhaka city: Residential Area.

302

and Dinajpur, They are la rge in s ize but population dynamics

i s less than what it i s in Thakurgaon, Cox 'Bazar , e tc .

The synthesis of urban dynamics analysis r evea l s that

the large urban centers of Bangladesh a r e character ized by

r e l a t i v e l y h igh ra te of t e r r i t o r i a l expansion, greater change

of access ib i l i t y , great progress in urban f a c i l i t i e s l i ke -park

and playground, educational institution, t e l ev i s ion/rad io , bank,

bus and te lephone. The fact that large c i t i es have great

access ib i l i t y i s quite s igni f icant in the context of system of

c i t i es , which, according to Ber ry (1964) , are " ent i t i es of

interacting, interdependent par t s " , f o r i t means that the larger

c i t i es play more central ro l es in these system in accordance

wi th the ir s i z e . Th is re lat ionship may be seen v i v i d l y , in

V^estern countries but in the case of Bangladesh i t i s pact ia l ly

app l i cab le . According to Duncan (1957], " The la rger the SMA,

the more l i k e l y i t is to have a d i v e r s i f i e d , i . e . , less

spec ia l i zed , industr ia l s tructure" . This observat ion seem to

have va l i d i t y in the context of urban dynamics of Bangladesh

as we l l . In par t icu lar , Dhaka and Khulna SMAs have a

considerable industrial base.

The v/eakness, observat ions, and suggestions of the

study can be depicted in the fo l lowing sect ions.

Weakness:

I t must be said that th i s study has few

shortcomings.

303

i . Units of observat ion are not l a rge . Because of

l imitations of time and resources on ind iv idua l researcher can

not manage a large sample. The author, the re fo re , has taken

only f o r t y urban centers f o r f ina l study in d i f f e r en t s i ze

groups. As a result , regional analysis is weak in the study.

i i . Scarc i ty of des ired data has a f f ec ted the quality

of the stat ist ica l interpretat ion.

Observations:

Some observat ions car. b e made at the conclusion

of the study:

i . On the basis of nair. o b j e c t i v e of the thes is , i t

can be said that some of the va i rab l e s are strong with high

and medium magnitude of urban d>Tiamics ( F - I and F - IV , in

appendix 5 .2 ) in large urban centers ( F i g . 4.12) but inverse

relation is also noted in some s c a l l urban centers. They are

progressing and have a high role of per unit urban amenities

and f a c i l i t i e s ( F - I I and F - I I I in appendix 5 . 2 ) .

i i . T h e study p roved that nost of the urban fac i l i t i e s

and amenities are prominent ( pe r unit f a c i l i t i e s ) in large urban

centers, l i k e - spec ia l i zed post o f f i c e , un i ve rs i t y , good quality

school and col lege, bank f a c i l i t i e s , bus se rv i ces ,and telephone

f a c i l i t e s . They are also corre la ted with employment rate.

The study also revea ls that these va r i ab l e s have p layed ve ry

insignif icant ro le in small and :aedium s i z e urban centers and

have on inverse re lat ion wi th th en . Some urban centers are

304

a lso noted f o r s l i ght p rog ress of pucca houses and per capita

expend i ture than is found in large urban centers .

i i i . I t has been noted that l a rge centers , s p e c i a l l y the

'P r imate C i t y ' are charac te r i zed by a h i gh ra t e of populat ion

dynamics, where some of the urban f a c i l i t i e s l i k e area , cinema

h a l l , pucca road, and s t ree t l i gh t are not growing fas t in

r e la t i on to population g rowth . Due to that the pr imate and large

c i t i e s l ike-Dhaka and Khulna r e s p e c t i v e l y are losing the i r

environmental qua l i t y . Slums and squatter co lon ies a re g radua l l y

increasing in these urban centers .

i v . Another important observat ion i s whether agr icul tura l

towns should be encouraged or not. Agr icu l tura l towns do not

conf i rm to the true nature of urbanization, because the pr inc ipa l

component ana lys is of urban dynamics has sco red h igh magnitude

of negat ive component loading in p r imary a c t i v i t y ( - 0 .75256 ) .

V. Yet another point to be emphasized i s that the two

c i t i e s , i . e . , Dhaka and Khulna are growing constant ly and the i r

unusual growth is l i a b l e to create prob lems of housing,

t ranspor t , urban amenit ies and f a c i l i t i e s , and industr ia l

deve lopment .

v i . The central region has been i d e n t i f i e d as a h i gh urban

dynamics reg ion and northern region as low wi th re la t ion to

demographic and in f ras t ructura l dynamics ( f i g u r e 4.12 and table

305

4.10 in component-I). This regionalization i s supported by the

figures 4.16 (A and B ) , 4.17 (A and B ) , and 4.18 (A and B ) .

Suggestions:

On the basis of preceding study, some suggestions

seems appropr ia te :

i . For a successful implementation of any developmental

plan of the urban centers, the ident i f icat ion of strong va r i ab l e s

are necessary . With the i r help proper guide l ines f o r optimum

accelerat ion of urban dynamics at a l l l e v e l s ; i . e . , large,

medium, and small urban centers can be suggested.

i i . F i rs t and second observat ion, made be fore , indicate

that it i s necessary to increase such f a c i l i t i e s in small and

medium urban centers, which have p layed s igni f icant r o l e for

urban growth in large c i t i es as reveated by va r i ab l e s .

i i i . T h e observations also suggest that at least

neighbourhood towns of large urban centers as we l l as half of

the hinterland area of a l l the urban centers should be treated

as part of the town and a l l the urban amenities and f a c i l i t i e s

(which have ident i f i ed as strong indicants) should be extended

to them. Such an extension of urban amenities and f a c i l i t i e s

w i l l not only so lve the problems of squatter sett lements and

slums but w i l l also reduce the uneven and haphazard growth

and high r a t e of immigration in large c i t i e s .

306

i v . For preventing h igh rate of in-migrat ion, sa te l l i t e

or umbrella towns should be deve l oped . For the checking high

rate of migration in Dhaka SMA, towns l ike Narsingdi,

Munshiganj, Manikgonj, Dhamri, Savar, Joydevpur , Kal iakair ,

Kal iganj , Kapasia, Sr ipur , Daulatpur, Ghior, Singair, Bandar,

and Navrabganj should be deve loped and proper urban f a c i l i t i e s

and amenities, which have been ident i f i ed as a strong var iab les

in urban dynamics in pr inc ipa l component analys is , be p rov ided .

V. It is true that agricultural towns do not conform

to the real nature of urbanization, yet the ir growth should be

encouraged as they extend a number of urban amenities to the

rural se t t lers and they make them better o f f than the se t t l e rs

of the large v i l l ages .

v i . The study suggests that town planners and the

government take timely steps for p roper planning with the he lp

of strong var iab les , those which have been ident i f i ed as

important in small and medium urban centers.

v i i . The predominance of young males in sex rat io

suggests that working class i s growing fast and w i l l a f f ec t the

employment opportunity. So, the governmait should help the

development of new towns which should have an industrial

sector for providing more job opportunit ies; th i s w i l l lessen

the burden on the primate and other large c i t i e s .

307

\'ii\. A large number of urban centers l ike-Khulna,

Jhenaidh, Jessore, Ishurdi , Comilla, Dhaka, Bhola, Thakurgaon,

and Sylhet are growing fast . In o rde r to check the immigrants

in these c i t i e s and also halt the unwanted growth of the c i t i es

both phys i ca l and demographic, it is essential to deve lop

planned sa t t e l i t e towns within the reasonable distance.

i x . Coordination among the urban development agencies

l ike-Urban Development Directorate (UDD), Rural Development

Department (RDD), Ministry of Urban Development and

riehabitation (MUDR), Ministry of Industr ies (MD) , Directorate

of Towns Planning (DTP ) , Capital Deve lopmai t Authority (CDA),

and Municipal Authori t ies etc. is essent ia l for the development

of new urban centers and implemaitation of any developmental

plan in the ountry.

F ina l l y , the stat ist ica l interpretat ion, notwithstanding

some weaknesses, has prov ided a h igh qual i ty of geographic

work through the identi f icat ion of strong va r i ab l e s and magnitude

of urban dynamics.

Further study is needed for Large, Medium and Small

urban centers separate ly on meso-region (D iv i s iona l L e v e l ) or

micro-region (D is t r i c t L e v e l ) basis , which would y i e ld better

results .

Appendix 1.1: List of Virables

308

Notation/ Abbrev ia ted name

Operational Def in i t ion

1. TOTPOPULATION Total population

2. DEGURBANIZAT Percentage of urban population.

3. MEDIANAGE Median age

4. POPGROWTHRAT Population growth rate (percentage )

5. POPULDENSITY Population dens i ty (Gross )

6. DEPENDERATIO Dependency rat io per 1000

7. NETMIGRATION Net migration ( p e r cent)

8. SEXRATIO Females per 1000 females

9. AREA Total geographica l area

10. AREACHANGE Area change ( Intercensal )

11. POSTOFFICE Post o f f i c e per 100,000 populations.

12. GOVERNOFFICE Government o f f i c e s per 100,000 populations

13. PARKPLAYGROU Parks and playgrounds per 100,000 population

14. CINEMAHALL Cinema ha l l seats per 100,000 population

15. NEWSPAPERCIR Newspaper c irculat ion per 100,000 population

16. STREETLIGHT Street l ight per 100,000 population

17. HOSPITALBED Hospital bed per 100,000 population.

18. BANK Banks per 100,000 population

19. BUS Buses per 100,000 population

20.

21.

FPC8MCWC

ELECTRICITY

Family planning center, and Maternity and chi ldren we l f a r e centers per 10,000 pop l . Per capita e l e c t r i c i t y consumption.

22. WATER Per capita vjater supply

23 TELEVESION Te lev is ion per 100,000 population.

309

24. TELEPHONE Te lev is ion per 100,000 population.

25. HOUSEHOLDDEN Households pe r s q . km.

26. KUTCHAHOUSE Percentage of Kutcha House.

27. PUCCAROAD Length of road per 100,000 population

28. ROADCONVERGE Road convergence

29. ROADENSITY Road density ( p e r s q . k m . )

30. LITERACYRATE L i teracy rate (population 5yrs and above )

31. SECONDSCHOOL Secondary school per 100,000 population.

32. COLLEGE Col lege per 100,000 population.

33. UNIVEREQVINS Univers i ty pe r 100,000 population.

34. UNEMPLOYMENT Unemployment rate.

35. PRIMACTIVITY Percentage worker in pr imary a c t i v i t y .

36. SECOACTIVITY Percentage of worker in secondary a c t i v i t y .

37. TERTACTIVITY Percentage of worker in t e r t ia ry a c t i v i t y .

38. PERCAPITINC Per capita income

39. ANNUACEXPEND Per capita annual expendi ture .

310

Appeaidix - 3.1

The follovving formula has been app l i ed for calculating

the median age population:

- fc 2 Median Age (Ma.) = L +

Where L^ = Lower l imit of median group

L^ - Upper l imit of median group

N = Total frequency

fm = Frequency of median groups,

fc = Cumulative frequency of lower median group.

The fol lowing age groups have been considered for the

calculation of 1961, 1974 and 1981 censuses of the selected 40

urban centers of Bangladesh.

Adjusted Age Group: 0 - 1 5

15 - 35

35 - 60

60 +

Example:

The above formula has been app l i ed to calculate the

median age of population of Far idpur town for the year of 1981.

311

Age group Frequency of Population

Comulative frequency of Population

0 - 15 30979 30979

15 - 35 20799 51778 Median Group

35 - 60 12225 64003

60" 2573 66579

_N+1 2 •

66579+1 = 33290 which w i l

l i e in between 51778, i . e . , in the age group of 15-35 where

15 is lower l imit = L^ and 35 is upper l imit = L2.

66579+1 - 30979 Thus the Median Age (Ma) = 15 +

20799

15 = 33290 - 30979 20799

15 X 20

X (35-15)

X 20

20799

15 + 2.22

17.22

So, the Median age of population of Far idpur town is

17.22

Ji i

312

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315

Appendix 5.1: Strong Var iab les

and 1981

of Urban Dynamics, 1961, 1974.

SI. Name of vnrlQblos Census year

No. 1961 1974 1981

1 2 3 4 5

1. Total Urban Population

2. Degree of Urbanization

3. Medium Age

/l. l'0[JUlaUun (Jruwlh Koto

5. Population Density

6. Dependency Ratio

7. Net Migration

8. Sex Ratio

9. Area

10. Area Change

11. PoRt nfrinriR

12. Government Of f i cos

13. Parks 6 Playgrounds

14. Cinoma Hall Soats

15. News Paper Circulation

16. Street L ights

17. Hospital Beds

I f l . RonkR

19. Bus

2U. FPC G MCWC

Jtf

itit •f

If

*

*

316

1 2 3 4 5

21. Electr ic i ty- =!= *

22. Water 'f

23. T .V ./Rat io is *

'> 1 Telephones *

25. Household Density K*

26. Kutcha House * *

27. Pucca Road f f

28. Road Convergence ^

29. Road Density A: -1'

30. L i t e racy Rate - •t'

31. Secondary School »»*

32. Col lege

33. Univers i ty 6 Equivalent Institution

*

34. Unemployment Rate *

35. Pr imary A c t i v i t y

o6. Secondary A c t i v i t y

37. Te r t i a ry A c t i v i t y V

38. Per Capita Income *

39. An-iual Expenditure

- Aster isk mark indicates the strong va r i ab l e s , i r r e spec t i v e of

the i r sign +ve or - v e in the factor leading, where botr.

comfnunality values and factor loadings a re more than 0.50.

317

Appendix 5.2: Magnitude of Variables (1961-1981)

SI . No.

Magnitude of Four Factors Name of Var iab les

F - I F - I I F - I I I F- IV

1. Urban Population change +M -M (Population Dynamics)

2. Change of Area -M

3. Degree of Urbanization -M

4. Population Density +H

5. Dependency Ratio -M

6. Pucca House +M

7. Post O f f i ce -M

8. Se i Ratio -M

9. Pucca Road -M

10. Park and Playground +H

11. Unemployment -^4

12. Secondary School +M

13. College f M

14. University-g equivalent institution

15. Cinema Hall -M

16. Street l ight -M

17. Hospital Bed

18. Te lev is ion/Radio +H

19. Bank +M -M

20. Bus -M

21. Primary A c t i v i t y -M

22. Secondary A c t i v i t y

23. Ter t ia ry A c t i v i t y -M

24. Telephone +M

Annual Expenditure +M -M

26. E lec t r i c i t y Consumption

27. Water Supply -M

+ v e or - v e sign is indicating the d i rect ion of magnitude.

H is the high magnitudee and M i s the medium magnitude of urban

dynamics.

Abbreviations

318

AMU = Al igarr . Muslim Univers i ty

BBS = Hanglaaesh Bureau of Stat ist ics

CDA = Capital Development Authority

CUS = Tenter for Urban Studies

FPC = Family Planning Center

MCWC = l-laternity and Chi ld Wel fare Center

NILG = -'vational Institute of Local Governir.ent

NIPORT = National Institute of Population Research and Training,

PCA = Pr inc ipa l Component Analys is

SMSA = Standard Metropolitan Stat is t ica l Area

SMA = Stat ist ical Metroplitan Area

UDD = Vrban Development Directorate

319

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Ahmed, K.H. (1980], Traffic Problems in Dhaka City, Dhaka.

Ahmad, N. (1976), A New Economic Geography of Bangladesh, Nev/ Delhi .

Ahmad, Q. (1965), Indian Cities: Characteristics and Correlates, Chicago.

Alam, S.M. and Pokhishevsky, V . V . (1976), Urbanization in Developing Covintries, Hyderabad.

Arefeen, H.K. (1983), Urbanization in Bangladesh, Dhaka.

Ayeni , Bola, (.1979), Concepts and Techniques in Urban Analysis, New York.

Barc lay , G. (1958), Techrique of Population Analysis, New York .

Beaujeu - Gomie r , J. (1966 . Geography of Population, Lcr.dcn.

B e r r y , B . J . L . (1971), "City s i z e and Economic Development" , in L . Jakobscr. and Prakash, ( e d s ) , Urbanization and National Development, Englewood C l i f f s .

Bhat, L .S . et al./Micro Level Planning: A Case Study of Komal Area, New Delhi.

Blochmann, H. (1968), Contributions to the Geography and History of Bengal. Calcutta.

Blumenfield, H. (1967), The Modem Metropolis: Its Origins, Growths, Characteristics and Planning, England.

Bogus, D.J. 5 Zachariar. K .C . (1962), "Urbanizaticn and Migration in India ' , p p . 27-54, in Roy Turner ( e d ) , India 's Urban Futu-e, Bombay.

Bose, A . (1967), Patterns 3f Urban Growth in India, 1951-61 in : Ashish Ecse ( e d . ) . Patterns of Population Change in India, 1951-61, New Delhi .

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Bose, A . (1973), Studies in India 's Urbanization, 1901-71, New Delhi.

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Breese, G. (1969), Urbanization in Newly Developing Countiries, New Delhi .

Brush, J .E . (1962), "Morphology of Indian C i t i e s " , in Roy Turner, ( e d . ) , India 's Urban Future, B e r k e l e y .

Chandna, R .C . (1986), A Geography of Population, New Delhi . Chamber (1965), Chamber's Twentieth Centuiry Dictionary,

Bombay.

Chapin, F .S. Jr . a Weiss, S . F . , (1962), Urban Growth Dynamics in a Regional Cluster of Cities ( e d . ) . New York .

Chaudhury, R .H. (1980), Urbanization in Bangladesh, A CUS Research Monograph, CUS, D.U. Dhaka.

Coates, B . E . , R .J . Jhonston 8 P . L . Knox, (1977), Geography and Inequality, De lh i .

CUS, (1979), The Urban Poor in Bangladesh: Comprehensive Summary Report , Research f o r UNICEF, Dhaka.

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