China EU and Latin America

255

Transcript of China EU and Latin America

书书书

中国、欧盟与拉美:当前议题与未来合作犆犺犻狀犪,狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪牶

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[德]克 敏 牛海彬 主编

上 海

 

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 中国、欧盟与拉美:当前议题与未来合作/(德)

克敏,牛海彬主编.—上海:上海人民出版社,2011

 ISBN978 7 208 09811 4

 Ⅰ.①中… Ⅱ.①克… ②牛… Ⅲ.①中外关系 研

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中国、欧盟与拉美:当前议题与未来合作[德]克 敏

牛海彬主编

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!1    

犉狅狉犲狑狅狉犱

  TheShanghaiInstitutesforInternationalStudies(SIIS)andtheFriedrich

EbertStiftungs(FES)OfficeforInternationalCooperationinShanghaihave

beencooperationpartnerssince1985.Duringthepast25yearsthecollaboration

hasprogressivelydeepened,especiallyinthefieldsofInternationalRelationsand

GlobalGovernance,aswellasClimateandEconomicPolicies.Numerous

conferencesandworkshopsorganisedbySIISandFEShaveprovidedaplatform

forChineseandinternationalexpertstoexchangeviewsandknowledgeonnew

developmentsinthesefieldsofstudy.

On27and28April2009,SIISandFESjointlyhostedaninternational

seminaron “China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFuture

Cooperation”inShanghai.Howthetrilateralcooperationmightbeenhancedand

globalchallengesbedealtwithwasanalysedanddiscussedby32participants

fromtheUN,China,theEUandLatinAmerica.Itwasthe7thinternational

conferenceonGlobalGovernancecoorganisedbythetwocooperationpartners.

ThepreviousseminarsanalysedimportantglobalissuesrelatedtoAsia,Europe

andAfrica.WiththerapiddevelopmentofSinoLatinAmericanrelationsover

thepastdecade,thedeepeningparticipationofLatinAmericainglobalaffairs

andthereadjustmentofEULatinAmericanrelations,theconferencefocusedon

thetrilateralrelationshipbetweenChina,theEUandLatinAmerica,andcame

upwithsomerelevantfutureorientedpolicythinking.

Withthispublication wewouldliketosharetheprofoundanalyses,

considerationsandfindingsrelatedtothetrilateralcooperationwithabroader

2     "#$%&'()*+,-.'/012

audience.Weareconfidentthattheconferenceanditspublicationwillcontribute

tothecommondevelopmentofChina,theEUandLatinAmerica.

Shanghai,December2010

ProfessorJiemianYang,PresidentofSIIS

Dr.RudolfTraubMerz,DirectoroftheFESOfficeinShanghai

!1    

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犉狅狉犲狑狅狉犱 1

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犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犆犺犻狀犪,狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪

NiuHaibinandBirteKlemm 193

犘犪狉狋犐 犆狅犿狆犪狉犻狊狅狀狅犳狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱犆犺犻狀犪狊犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犺犻狆狑犻狋犺犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪 

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉1  犃犉狅狉犿犪狋犻狀犛犲犪狉犮犺狅犳犛狌犫狊狋犪狀犮犲—犃狀犗狏犲狉狏犻犲狑

狅犳犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犫犲狋狑犲犲狀狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪

犻狀犪犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犘犲狉狊狆犲犮狋犻狏犲

GüntherMaihold 203

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉2  犆犺犪犾犾犲狀犵犲狊狋狅犈犝犘狅犾犻犮犻犲狊狅狀犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋

犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀狑犻狋犺犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪 

JoséAntonioSanahuja 220

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉3  犃犖犲狑犈狉犪犳狅狉犆犺犻狀犪犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊牶

犕狅狉犲犗狆狆狅狉狋狌狀犻狋犻犲狊狋犺犪狀犆犺犪犾犾犲狀犵犲狊

NiuHaibin 240

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉4  犜犺犲犈犝,犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪犪狀犱犆犺犻狀犪牶犌犲狅犿犲狋狉犻犮犪犾

犘犪狋狋犲狉狀狊犻狀犆狌狉狉犲狀狋犪狀犱犉狌狋狌狉犲犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊

ErikaRuizSandoval 253

2     !

犘犪狉狋犐 犐 犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚狊犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犺犻狆狑犻狋犺狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱犆犺犻狀犪

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉5  犈犿狆犻狉犻犮犪犾犃狀犪犾狔狊犻狊牶犜狉犪犱犲犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚

犪狀犱犆犺犻狀犪/犈犝—犜狉犲狀犱狊犪狀犱犉犻犵狌狉犲狊

WelberBarralandGustavoRibeiro 267

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉6  犜狉犪犱犻狀犵狑犻狋犺犌犻犪狀狋狊牶犐狊犜狉犪犱犲犘狅犾犻犮狔狑犻狋犺狋犺犲犈犝

犪狀犱犆犺犻狀犪犅犲狀犲犳犻犮犻犪犾狋狅犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚?

CarlosCarvalloSpalding 282

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉7  犗狆狆狅狉狋狌狀犻狋犻犲狊犪狀犱犆犺犪犾犾犲狀犵犲狊犉犪犮犻狀犵犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱

犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚犻狀狋犺犲犆狅狀狋犲狓狋狅犳狋犺犲犉犻狀犪狀犮犻犪犾犆狉犻狊犻狊

LuGuozheng 301

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉8  犆狌狉狉犲狀狋犪狀犱犉狌狋狌狉犲犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀狌狀犱犲狉狋犺犲

犈犝犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚犃犵狉犲犲犿犲狀狋

KarlBuck 315

犘犪狉狋犐 犐 犐 犈狀犲狉犵狔犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔犪狀犱犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犆犺犪狀犵犲

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉9  犆犺犻狀犪狊犃狆狆狉狅犪犮犺狋狅犈狀犲狉犵狔犪狀犱犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犆犺犪狀犵犲

YuHongyuan 331

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉10 犗犻犾犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪

SunHongbo 347

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉11 犜犺犲犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犺犻狆犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犆犺犪狀犵犲犘狅犾犻犮犻犲狊

犪狀犱犈狀犲狉犵狔犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔—犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犱犅犲狔狅狀犱

ArnoBehrens 356

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉12 犈狀犲狉犵狔犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔犪狀犱犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犆犺犪狀犵犲犻狀犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊

犫犲狋狑犲犲狀狋犺犲犈犝,犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪牶犕犪犼狅狉

犆犺犪犾犾犲狀犵犲狊犪狀犱犃狉犲犪狊犳狅狉犐狀狋犲狉狀犪狋犻狅狀犪犾犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀

MaríaCristinaSilvaParejas 371

犘犪狉狋犐 犞 犜狉犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犪狀犱犛犮狅狆犲犳狅狉犕狌犾狋犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犻狊犿

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉13 犃犖犲狑犔狅狅犽犪狋狋犺犲犜狉犻犪狀犵狌犾犪狋犻狅狀犫犲狋狑犲犲狀狋犺犲犈犝,

犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪 

JiangShixue 391

Contents 3    

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉14 犜狉犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犆犺犻狀犪,狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀

犃犿犲狉犻犮犪牶犔犻狋狋犾犲犈狓狆犲狉犻犲狀犮犲,犅狌狋犅犻犵犘狅狋犲狀狋犻犪犾

KarlBuck 405

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉15 犆犺犻狀犪,狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪牶犜狉犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾

犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犪狀犱犛犮狅狆犲犳狅狉犕狌犾狋犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犻狊犿

MarcelFortunaBiato 423

犃犫狅狌狋狋犺犲犆狅狀狋狉犻犫狌狋狅狉狊 436

书书书

! 193  

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犃狊狊犲狊狊犻狀犵狋犺犲犈犿犲狉犵犻狀犵犜狉犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犫犲狋狑犲犲狀

犆犺犻狀犪,狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪

!"# $%"&"' %'( )"*+, -.,//

  Asanemergingglobalplayer,Chinaisexpandingitseconomicand

diplomatictiesrapidlywiththedevelopingregions,especiallyAfricaandLatin

America.EuropeanconcernsabouttheimplicationsofChinasenlargedpresence

inAfricaalsoapplywithregardtoChinaspresenceinLatinAmerica.Latin

Americaisbecomingmoreindependentanditsintegrationintheworldeconomy

isdeepening.Chinaisenjoyinganincreasingshareoftheexternaleconomic

relationsofLatin Americancountries,whiletheEU,althoughstillLatin

Americaslargesttradingpartner,isdiminishinginimportanceinthisregard.

Againstthisbackground,itisfairtosaythatboththeEUandChinaarethe

mainexternalplayerswithregardtoLatinAmericasfuturedevelopment.Thus

itisnecessarytoreviewtheperspectivesofbothChinaandtheEUtowardsLatin

America.

LatinAmericaincludesafairnumberofemergingpowers,suchasBrazil,

Mexico,ArgentinaandChile.Theseemergingpowers—plusChina—arebeginning

toexercisemuchmoreinfluenceinglobalaffairs.Brazilhostedthesecond

summitofBRICcountries(Brazil,Russia,IndiaandChina)inApril2010,and

MexicosCancunheldtheUNClimateChangeConferenceinDecember2010.

Brazil,Argentina,Mexico,China,fourEuropeancountriesaswellastheEU

aremembersoftheG20,theworldspremierforumforeconomiccooperation.

Theshareofglobalissuesintheirexternalaffairsisgraduallyrising.Insome

areasofinternationalcooperation,theEUisplayingastrongroleinaddressing

globalchallenges.Inthecontextofpressingglobalchallenges,amongother

multilateralagendas,trilateralcoordinationandcooperationbetweenChina,the

EUandLatinAmericawillcontributetoglobalpublicgoods.

Thechaptersinthisconferencevolumeprovideavarietyofperspectiveson

194   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

trilateralrelations.PartIofferscomparativestudiesoftheEUandChinas

foreignpolicytowardsLatinAmericaandthelattersresponsetotheirLatin

Americanpolicy.PartI Ifocusesonthetransregionalcooperationbetweenthe

SouthernCommon Market(MERCOSUR)andChina,aswellastheEU,

respectively.InPartI I I,thedifferentperspectivesofChina,theEUandLatin

Americawithregardtoissuesofenergysecurityandclimatechangeare

analysed.PartI Vprovidessomefutureorientedthinkingontheprospectsof

trilateralcooperationanditsinfluenceonmultilateralism.Overall,thisvolumeis

aimedatunderstandingthedynamicsoftrilateralcooperationinthecontextofa

pressingglobalagendaandincreasinglyclosetiesbetweenChinaandLatin

America.

1.犖犲狑犈狓狆犲狉犻犲狀犮犲狊狅犳犛狅狌狋犺犖狅狉狋犺犪狀犱犛狅狌狋犺犛狅狌狋犺犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀

EnhancingSouthSouthcooperationhasbeenastrategicchoiceforemerging

powerssuchasChinaandBraziltoexplorethepotentialofeconomicglobalisationsince

theriseofmajordevelopingcountrieshaschangedthelayoutoftheworldeconomy.

MostLatinAmericancountrieshaveintegratedthemselveswellintheworld

economy,especiallytheSouthAmericancountrieswithdiversifiedandbalanced

traderelationsworldwide.Chinais,inthisregard,anattractivechoicefor

them;moreover,closertieswithChinahavehelpedthemtosomeextenttodeal

withtheworldeconomicrecessionsince2008.Atthesametime,theEUasa

traditionalpartnerstillmaintainsstrongandcomprehensivelinkageswithLatin

America.Againstthis background,comparing the SinoLatin American

relationshipwiththeEULatinAmericanrelationshipmightbehelpfulforboth

ChinaandtheEUintheireffortstolearnhowtobuildupanddeepenthose

relationships.

1.1!EULatinAmericanRelationship

Accordingto Maihold (Chapter1),theperformanceoftheEULatin

Americanrelationshipislowerthanitspotentialandthusmuchmoreeffort

shouldbeputintoit.SomenewEUmemberslackofpoliticalwillingnessto

engagewithLatinAmerica,thelackofcommonforeignandsecuritypoliciesand

theweakeningoftraditionalsharedvaluesallcontributetothecurrentstagnation

ofEULatinAmericanrelations.Basedonthisanalysis,Maiholdsuggeststhat

bothsidesshouldfocusonconcreteinterestsandpossibilitiesforcooperation,

invitemoreactorstoparticipateininterregionalinteractionandencourageSpain

toplayaconstructiveleadershiprole.InChapter2,Sanahujasystematically

examinesthechallengesfacingtheEUspoliciesondevelopmentcooperationwithLatin

Introduction:AssessingtheEmergingTrilateralRelationsbetweenChina,theEUandLatinAmerica 195  

America.Hearguesthatdevelopmentcooperationisakeyelementofbiregional

relations,andtheEUshouldnotreduceitsaidtotheregion.HesuggeststhattheEU

shouldcooperatewithmiddleincomecountriesinLatinAmericaandprovidegreateraid

inspecificareastoconsolidatedevelopmentalachievements.

Agreeingwiththeargumentthattheregionssufferfromtheirlackofa

singlevoiceinbilateralsummits,RuizarguesinChapter4thatLatinAmericais

evenworseoffbecauseitlacksaregionalinstitutionliketheEU.Althoughthe

bilateralsummitstakeanormativeandjudgmentalapproach,theirunderpinningin

termsofvaluesandinterestsisweakening.LatinAmericawillnotbecometheideal

regiontheEUhasexpectedittobeforthetimebeing,andLatinAmericansalso

shouldnotthinkofEuropesolelyintermsofitsindividualstates,especiallySpain.

1.2!SinoLatinAmericanRelationship

LatinAmericaandChinaareemergingasimportantglobalpartners,

reflectedinthefactthattheyareseekingmorediversifiedandbalancedexternal

economicrelations.Intraderelations,Chinasboomingdemandforraw

materialshascontributedgreatlytothenewcontinuousandstablegrowthof

LatinAmerica.ChinaisalsoincreasingitsFDItotheregioninthesectorsof

energy,agricultureandinfrastructure.ItisoftenarguedthatChinaspresencein

LatinAmericaisdrivenbyeconomicreasonssinceLatinAmericaisahuge

potentialmarketandamajorsupplierofcommodities,aswellasenergy.

However,othervoices,especiallyfromtheChineseperspective,emphasise

Chinasstrengtheningofsocialandculturaltieswiththeregion,whichwas

underlinedinthereleaseofChinasPolicyPaperonLatinAmericaandCaribbean

inNovember2008.

MaiholdarguesinChapter1,therefore,thatthereareafewchallengesfor

theSinoLatinAmericanrelationshipfromtheEUsperspective,including:

(1)Chinaslongtermdemandforrawmaterialswhichreinforcestheroleof

LatinAmericaasasupplierofrawmaterialstotheglobaleconomy;

(2)thecompetitionbetweenChinaandLatinAmericaforexternalinvestments;

(3)thefactthatmostofthetradevolumewithChinaisconcentratedina

fewLatinAmericancountries;and

(4)theTaiwanissue.

AmajorpreoccupationinEuropewithregardtoChinasactivitiesinLatin

Americaistheextenttowhichtheregionwillmanagetodiversifyitseconomic

andpoliticalagendaandexpandintofieldsotherthanrawmaterialsexports.

ConcerningtheinfluenceofChinasLatinAmericanpolicyontheEU,Sanahuja

(Chapter2)pointsoutthatitislimitedbecausetheEUdoesnotwantto

196   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

competewithChinafortheregionsresourcesandChinadoesnotintendtoexert

itspoliticalinfluenceontheregion.NiuHaibin(Chapter3)takesapositiveand

optimisticviewoffutureSinoLatinAmericanrelations.HearguesthatSinoLatin

Americancooperationhasglobalimplicationsintheareasofclimatechange,food

security,energysecurityandtherebuildingoftheinternationaleconomicsystem.

Financialandmutualinvestmentcooperationwillmakethebilateralrelationshipmore

balancedandsustainable.Bothcanlearnfromeachotherwithregardtotheir

developmentexperiences.AstothethirdpartyfactorintheSinoLatinAmerican

relationship,hearguesthatallsidesshouldfollowlogicofglobalisationandwinwin

thinkingratherthancompetitionbetweenspheresofinfluence.

FromtheperspectiveofLatinAmericanscholars,Ruizpointsoutthat

ChinaspresenceinLatinAmericaisbothfearedandneeded(Chapter4).China

hasaclearerunderstandingoftheregionsdiversityandhasmoreincommon

withtheregionthantheEUwithregardtotheinternationalsystem.Besidesthe

economicinfluence,shepointsoutthatChinaspoliticalinfluenceshouldbe

noted.Atthesametime,RuizarguesthatChinawillnotbeasubstituteforthe

USandtheEUbecauserealinterestsandvaluesmustbethebasisforLatin

Americasrelationswithotherregionsandcountries.

2.犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚狊犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊狑犻狋犺狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱犆犺犻狀犪

ManyexpertsarguethattheEUstraderelationshipwithMERCOSURhas

a NorthSouthcharacter,butalsounderlinethatthe ChinaMERCOSUR

relationshiphassimilarcharacteristic.BarralandRibeiro(Chapter5)suggest

thatMERCOSURsintegrationintotheChineseeconomyinthefirstdecadeof

thetwentyfirstcenturyseemstobereminiscentofaNorthSouthparadigm

typicalofthe nineteenth century:the exchange ofraw materials and

manufacturedproducts.MERCOSURhaswitnessednotonlyboomingtradewith

China,butalsochallengestotheregionslocalindustriesandcompetitionin

exportstothirdmarkets.However,theauthorsdonotobjecttotradewith

China,andtheyarguethatMERCOSURshouldmaintainthistraderelationship,

whileincreasingthecompetitivenessofitsindustrialproducts.CarvalloSpalding

(Chapter6)agreeswiththeaboveargumentsandfurthersuggeststhatrelations

with Chinaareevolvingintocooperationonvalueaddedproductionand

infrastructure.HesuggeststhatMERCOSURshouldusedesignpoliciesto

enhance education,infrastructure,innovation,a favourable investment

environmentandcooperationbetweenthepublicandprivatesectors.Lu

Guozheng,too,emphasisesthispositiveattitudetothefuturedevelopmentof

MERCOSURChinarelationsinChapter7.

Introduction:AssessingtheEmergingTrilateralRelationsbetweenChina,theEUandLatinAmerica 197  

AlthoughitisakindofNorthSouthtraderelationship,Buckarguesin

Chapter8thataggregatedEUinvestmentinLatinAmericaexceedsitsstocksin

China,IndiaorevenJapan,andthatitisparticularlystronginnonprimary

sectors,whichcontributesmoretolocaladdedvalueandjobs.Healsoargues

thattheEUwouldbenefitgreatlyfromestablishinganFTAwithMERCOSUR,

consideringitshugeserviceeconomy.Whilehepointsoutthattheagriculture

issueisthekeytotheFTA,hethinksthattheproblemiswhethertheworldcan

supplyenoughagriculturalproductsratherthanthelevelofsubsidiesinthis

sector,withrisingglobaldemandforagriculturalproducts.Thepostliberal

agenda—includingenergy,infrastructure,migration,theenvironmentand

healthcare—wouldenjoyhigherpriorityinbilateralcooperation.

3.犈狀犲狉犵狔犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔犪狀犱犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犆犺犪狀犵犲

InPart3,YuHongyuan(Chapter9)andSunHongbo(Chapter10)provide

Chineseperspectivesonclimatechangeandoilcooperation,respectively.Yu

HongyuanpointsoutthatChinaisseekingamodelthatwillallowittoresolve

theconflictsbetweenenergyconsumptionandenvironmentaldegradationby

meansofinternationalcooperation.Chinasmajorapproachesincludedomestic

capacitybuilding,winwincooperation,commonbutdifferentresponsibilities

andalowcarboneconomy.HearguesthatChinasactiveattitudetowards

climatechangeissueswillhavemanyimplications,whileonlybyadoptingareal

lowcarboneconomycouldChinaplayaleadingroleinthedevelopingworld.

SunHongboarguesthatLatinAmericaisnotyetChinasmainoilsupplier,

butitcouldbeastrategicalternativeallowingChinatodiversifyitsoilsupplyin

thelongrun.ChinasoilstrategytowardsLatinAmericashouldtargetthree

objectives:marketentry,investmentprotectionandoilimports.WhileChina

hasgreatpotentialwithregardtoinvestingintheLatinAmericanoilsector,Sun

HongboproposesthatChinasinvestmentshouldalsotakeintoaccountthe

politicaluncertaintyinsomeLatinAmericancountries,localemploymentandthe

environmentalsituation.

InChapter11,Behrensprovidesacomprehensiveandinsightfulanalysisof

theEUsclimatechangeandenergysecuritypolicychoices,aswellastheir

implicationsforcooperationbetweentheEUandemergingeconomies.Heargues

thatclimatechangepolicyinthecontextofambitiousgreenhousegasreduction

targetsmaybebeneficialtothesecurityofsupply.Concerningthecontradictory

relationshipbetweenrenewableenergyandenergysecurity,hesuggeststhat

internationalcooperationwillbecrucialinachievingacleanandsecureglobal

energysystem.Hepointsoutthatemergingeconomiesarenotonlymajor

198   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

greenhousegasemittersbutalsoproducersofcleanenergytechnologies;theEU

shouldworktogetherwiththemtodevelopcleanenergytechnologiesand

especiallytoimproveenergyefficiency.

SilvaParejas(Chapter12)offersaLatinAmericanperspectiveoninternational

cooperationintheareasofenergysecurityandclimatechange.Shestatesthat

LatinAmericahasastrongerpositiontocompeteintheworldmarketgivenits

effortstodiversifyitsenergygrid,incorporaterenewableenergieswithaviewto

nationalindependenceandadoptsustainableenergystrategies.SilvaParejas

suggeststhattheregionsdiversityshouldbenotedratherthanfocusingon

Brazilalonewithregardtotheregionsclimateissues.Intermsofexternal

dialoguesonenergyandtheenvironment,LatinAmericashouldbetreatedasa

speciallyfavouredpartywithafocusoncooperationandwinwinsolutions.Like

Behrens,sheemphasisestheimportanceoftheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency

asaleadinginstitutionalframeworkforpossibletrilateralormultilateralcooperation.

4.犐狊犜犺犲狉犲犃狀狔犜狉犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀?

Mostexpertsdonotthinkthattherehasbeensubstantialtrilateral

cooperationbetweenChina,theEUandLatinAmericatodate,althoughtheydo

havedifferentbutpromisingvisions whenimaginingfuturescenariosfor

trilateralrelations.Amongthefactorswhichaffecttrilateralcooperation,the

expandingroleofChinainLatinAmericaandthepressingregionalandglobal

challenges,especiallyinsocalled“lowpolitics”,willenergisetheemergingtrilateral

cooperation.

InChapter13,JiangShixuearguesthat,unliketheUnitedStates,whichis

uneasyaboutChinasexpandingpresenceintheWesternHemisphere,Europe,

andparticularlySpain,wishestoofferahelpinghandtoChinatofurtherdevelop

itsrelationswithLatinAmerica.BecauseofcommonChineseandEUconcerns

withregardtoenergysecurity,fightingpovertyandinequalityinLatinAmerica

trilateralcooperationmightbedeveloped.TakingSpainasacasestudy,Jiang

ShixueexaminesSpainspossibilitiesasapromoterofSinoLatinAmerican

cooperationintheareaslistedinChinasPolicyPaperonLatinAmericaandthe

Caribbean.HisstudyshowsthatSpaincanbehelpfultoChinaintheeconomic,

culturalandsocialareas—inotherwords,areasbelongingtolowpolitics.

Globalissuesrequireglobalsolutions.InChapter14,addressingglobal

challengesandtreatingtheworldeconomyasawhole,Buckarguesthat

triangularcooperationispromisingevenifthereislittleexperienceinthis

regard.Heliststhefollowingfieldsofcooperation:globalinstitutional

architecture,norms,actionsandsoon;labourandhumanrights;theDoha

Introduction:AssessingtheEmergingTrilateralRelationsbetweenChina,theEUandLatinAmerica 199  

process;educationandinnovation;andnontraditionalsecurityissues.Buckalso

presentsacasestudyofAfricatoexplorethepossibilityoftrilateralcooperation

thereinpositiveterms.Notingthenegativeaspectsoftrilateralcooperation,

suchashighertransactioncosts,hesuggeststhatthefocusshouldbeon

structuralissuesandbuildingpeopletopeoplecontacts,aswellascultural

exchanges.

FortunaBiatoarguesinthelastchapterofthisconferencevolume(Chapter

15)thatthebestwaytoachievetrilateralcooperationistogothrough

establishedbilateralrelationships.Theinstitutionalframeworkisstillnotready

fortrilateralcooperation,andtheregionalintegrationofLatinAmericaasa

wholehasnotbeenaccomplished,butthereisalreadyenoughspacefor

promotingjointprojects.OneapproachistopromotetheparticipationoftheEU

andChinaindevelopingmajorfinancialdevelopmenttoolsinLatinAmerica,

suchastheAmericanDevelopmentBank.Theotherapproachistofindjoint

projectsintheareasofastronavigation,satellites,andcleanenergy.Cooperation

betweenemergingpowersisgraduallyinfluencingtheinternationalsystemand

theglobalagenda,whichdoesnotmeantheycanundertakemajorprojects

withoutcooperationwithdevelopedcountries.TheRioGroupisworkingto

promoteinstitutionaldialoguewithChinaandtheEU,whichhasmadesome

progress.Inthelongrun,abroaderanddeeperglobalagendawillprovidemore

andmoreinstancesforachievingtrilateralcooperationbetweenChina,theEU

andLatinAmerica.

TheShanghaiInstitutesforInternationalStudies(SIIS)andtheFriedrich

EbertStiftung(FES)wouldliketothankalltheauthorsfortheirwillingnessto

cooperateinthispublication.AsallpaperswerewrittenforthejointSIISFES

InternationalConference“China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesand

FutureCooperation”thattookplaceinApril2009,theythereforereflectthe

stateofknowledgeatthisdate.Onlysomeofthepaperswereupdatedduringthe

editingprocess.

Nobilingualvolumeispossiblewithoutknowledgeabletranslators.DrWu

Xiaozhen,DrZhouBaowei,ZhaoRuoyuandLuYangtranslatedtheEnglish

contributionsintoChinese.JamesPattersonrevisedalltheEnglishpapersfor

publication.Wemuchappreciatetheirprofessionalefforts.

犘犪狉狋犐

犆狅犿狆犪狉犻狊狅狀狅犳犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱狋犺犲犈犝狊

犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犺犻狆狑犻狋犺犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪

! 203  

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉1

犃犉狅狉犿犪狋犻狀犛犲犪狉犮犺狅犳犛狌犫狊狋犪狀犮犲—犃狀犗狏犲狉狏犻犲狑狅犳

犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犫犲狋狑犲犲狀狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪

犻狀犪犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犘犲狉狊狆犲犮狋犻狏犲

0#̈'+1,* 2%"13.(

1.犐狀狋狉狅犱狌犮狋犻狅狀

FormerBrazilianPresidentFernandoHenriqueCardosocommentedonhis

lastmeetingwiththepresidentsofLatinAmericaandtheEuropeanUnionas

follows(Maihold2007:149):“Althoughwefeelverycloseinspirit,inreality

wecontinue(tobe)quitedistant.”AlthoughhewasreferringtotheMadrid

SummitbetweenEuropeandLatinAmericain2002,thisalsoappliestothelast

Summit,heldon11and12May2006inVienna.Thismeetingincludedthe

participationofonethirdofthenationsrepresentedinthe UN General

Assembly.Itresulted,ontheonehand,inthecommencementofnegotiations

aimedatconcludingafreetradeagreementwiththeCentralAmericancountries

and,ontheotherhand,inthedecisiontodevelopanegotiationperspectivewith

theAndeanCommunityofNations(ACN).Incontrasttothesepositiveresults,

therewasstillnolightattheendofthetunnelregardingafinalconclusionofthe

ongoingfreetradeagreementnegotiationswithMercosur.Inaddition,Latin

AmericaspartiallossofinterestintheEUduetotherisingpresenceofChinain

theregionwasobvious.

Therefore,itisnecessarytolook morecloselyattwoaspectswhich

currentlydeterminerelationsbetweenEuropeandLatinAmerica:

(1)Traditionally,EuropeandLatinAmericahavebeendefined—andhave

definedthemselves—as“naturalallies”withregardtocommonroots(cultural

IwouldliketothankJrgHusarforhisassistancewiththeresearchforthisarticle.Inthe

followingtexttheterm“LatinAmerica”alsoreferstotheCaribbean.

204   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

valuesandsoon),anapproachlinkedtotheexpectationthatthedevelopmentof

therelationshipwouldbesimilarly“natural”.Inthemeantime,however,ithas

becomeevidentthatthesuccessoftheongoing “diplomacybysummit”is

limited,notonlyintermsofscope,butalsobythelackofcaretakenindefining

anagendaandacoherentstrategyofcooperation.

(2)Anumberoffactors,includingtheformatoftherelationship,the

numberofandqualitativedifferenceswithregardtoactors,andthetimetables

imposedonthe mechanismsinvolvedhaveraiseddoubtsandfosteredthe

deceptionbecauseofthedeficiencyinimplementingtheresults.Insteadofthe

agendaofthepresidentsmeetingsbeingrefocused,however,itwasextended

andaprocessofalternativesummitswiththeirownagenda(BusinessMeeting,

AlternativeSummit)hasbeenputinplace.Thegrowingrivalrybetweenthe

officialandthealternativesummitprocessesnowmakesitevenmoredifficultfor

governmentstoreshapesummitdevelopmentinamoresoberfashion.

2.犜犺犲犉狅狉犿犪狋犻狅狀狅犳犪犆狅犿犿狅狀犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪犘狅犾犻犮狔

2.1!TheGlorious?poque:The1980s

EuropesrelationswithLatinAmericaevolvedsignificantlyinthe1980s,a

decademarkedby majorconflictsinCentralAmerica.Atthattime,the

EuropeanUnionhadtodecidewhetheritcouldandshouldarbitrateinaconflict

whichwascharacterisedbyhighlevelsofconfrontationtypicaloftheColdWar.

Withitsdecisiontointerfere,despitetheextremelydifficultscenario,inthe

UnitedStatessbackyard,theEuropeanUnionforthefirsttimeassumedthe

roleofaglobalpowerledbyindividualmembercountries,includingFranceand

Germany.Thus,theSanJoséProcessissometimesconsideredtobethe

beginningoftheCommonForeignandSecurityPolicy(CFSP)andwasvery

helpfulfordefiningcommonEuropeanpositionsininternationalpolitics,in

whichLatinAmericawasEuropesfirstcounterpart.TheEuropeanUnion

facilitatedthepeacetalksintheregionandencouragedeachcountrytostartand

toadvanceitsnationaldemocratisationprocesses.

2.2!TheCurrentPhaseofStagnation

LatinAmericasgovernments,aswellasrepresentativesofcivilsocietyhave

startedtofeelacertaindistancefromEurope.Thisfeelingmayinpartberelated

to—butalsoconfusedwith—thefactthatLatinAmericaistodayonlyoneof

thepartnersEuropeisinterestedincultivating,havingplayedthecentralrole

inEUforeignrelationsduringthe1980s.Tosomeobservers,thisfeelingof

AFormatinSearchofSubstance"AnOverviewofRelationsbetweentheEUandLatinAmericainaEuropeanPerspective 205  

disenchantmentisduetoexaggeratedexpectationswithregardtoEuropes

interestinLatinAmerica;forothersitdemonstratesalossofinterestinLatin

AmericabytheEU.Therefore,thereisgrowingcriticismoftheEuropean

Commissionwhich,fromthestandpointofLatinAmericanpoliticians,isnot

respondingadequatelytothechangesintheirregionandtheneedsoftheir

people.Forinstance,whileEuropeisofferingpoliticaldialoguetoitsLatin

Americancounterparts,thelatterexpectnegotiationsonfreetradeagreements

andaccesstotheEuropeanSingleMarket.Inthiscontext,aclimateofsuspicion

andalossofconfidencehasarisen.

2.3!TheStructureofRelations

FromthepointofviewofLatinAmericangovernments,biregionalrelations

withEuropehavechangedinparticularsincetheEUbegantointegratenew

memberstates.Firstofall,thenew memberstateshavenotshownmuch

interestintheregionandarekeenerondevelopingrelationswithAsia.The

EasternEuropeancountriesconsiderLatinAmericanmarketstobenotvery

interestingornotworthtryingtoconquer.Thereforethetraditionalmember

states,suchasSpain,FranceandGermany,continuetobeLatinAmericas

preferredcounterpartsinEurope,eventhoughitisalsolookingformore

intensivecontactswiththeEast.Inaddition,thegrowingdiversityinthe

EuropeanUnion,thedisparitybetweennewandoldmembersandthedifferent

ratesofintegrationindifferentpolicyareashavecalledintoquestionEuropean

leadershipininternationalpoliticsinLatinAmericaneyes.ForLatinAmerica,

Europeanpoliticslacksinternalconsensus,whiletheEU hasdevelopeda

tendencytodrawitswagonsintoacircleandtointensifyrelationswithitsnear

neighbours,inturnneglectingrelationswithregionsfurtheraway,suchasLatin

America.

SpaincontinuestobethemajorportofentryfortheLatinAmerican

countries,althoughSpainsparticipationinLatin Americanpublicservices

privatisationprocessesoverthepastdecadehasledtoacertaindistancing.The

smallerandmediumsizedcountriesoftheregioninparticularseemtohave

difficultyactingstrategicallyinthefaceofthesocalled“Europeanjungle”,asa

resultofwhichtheyarelookingfora“gatekeeper”inordertocometoterms

withtheEU.

ThereisgrowingconcerninLatinAmericaabouttheEuropeantendencyto

talkaboutthenew“Left”movements,partiesandgovernmentsintheregionas

iftheycomprisedanhomogenousdevelopment.FromtheLatin American

perspectivethissimplifyingandgeneralisingviewseemstoproveonceagainthe

206   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

misinterpretationofrecentchangesintheregiononthepartofEuropeans.

Already,ignoringtheknownlackofcoordinationwithinLatinAmerica,the

EuropeanUnionsuspectedthatthenegotiationswithMercosurwereaclever

movetoputNorthAmericaunderpressureintheFreeTradeAreaofthe

Americas(FTAA)process,andviceversa.Furthermore,theprotracted

negotiationsbetweentheEU and Mercosur,incontrasttothesuccessful

associationagreementswithMexicoin1997andChilein2002,demonstratein

theeyesofLatinAmericangovernmentsthatthebilateralapproachismore

effective.TheEuropeanemphasisonregionalandblocnegotiationsisnot

acceptedbythemajorityofLatinAmericancountries,forseveralreasons.In

response,theEuropeanshave,forexample,takenaparticularstancewith

regardtocountrieswhichhaveaspecificprofilewithregardtosize,levelof

incomeandroleininternationalpolitics,declaringa“strategicpartnership”with

Brasilia.ThemeetingofPresidentsattheEuroLatinAmericanLimaSummitin

2008madeevidenttheEUsnewcommitmenttoBrazil,whichwasafforded

prioritysinceitwasconsideredtobeastrategiccounterpartyfortheEUinthe

bilateralsummitheldwithBrazilinLisbonon4July2007.Thisdecision,which

wassomewhatagainstthegrainoftheinterregionalapproachoftheEUitself,

hadinitiallyraisedconcernsinotherLatin Americancountries,suchas

Argentina,particularlybecauseofEuropesinterestinboostingcooperationwith

Brazilinthesphereofbiofuels.Thissituation,whichinitiallywassomethingof

acomplicationforothermembersofMERCOSUR,hassofarhadnofurther

impactonbiregionalrelations.Infact,Brazilhashadtodirectallitsdiplomatic

effortstowardsensuringthatitsinterestinpromotingbioethanolwasrespected

byotherparticipants.Whilebiofuelswereinitiallyseenasaviablealternativetohelp

achieveenergysecurity,inthepastyearcriticismhasariseninEuropeandLatin

Americawithregardtothesustainabilityofbiofuelproductionanditscompatibility

withvarioussocialandenvironmentalstandards.SotheinitialdynamicoftheEuro

Brazilianrelationhasbeenabating,whereasacorrespondingstrategicpartnership

agreementistobesignedwithMexico(EuropeanCommission2008).

FromthepointofviewofsomeLatinAmericancountriesalltheseelements

showthattheEUisonlyveryslowlydrawingconclusionsfromitsanalysisofthe

regionsheterogeneityandthenewpresenceofpowerssuchasChina,Iranand

Russia.Nevertheless,LatinAmericarespondedtotheEuropeanregionalisation

ideaanditsattendantrequirementsbycreatinginpart(similar)supranational

(regional)institutions,suchastheAndeanParliament.Fromtheirperspective,

however,itisuptotheEuropeanstoreanimatethefreetradenegotiationswiththe

regionandindoingsotofosterrealintegration.WhileinLatinAmericanintellectual

AFormatinSearchofSubstance"AnOverviewofRelationsbetweentheEUandLatinAmericainaEuropeanPerspective 207  

circlestheregionsidentificationas“thewesternendoftheoccident”isaccepted,major

groupswithinLatinAmericansocietiesarefiercelyopposedtodefiningLatinAmerica

anditspeopleasasortofextensionofEurope.Forallthereasonsoutlinedabove,

LatinAmericansmeasuretheseriousnessofthesocalledstrategiccharacteroftheir

relationstoEuropeonlyintermsofconcreteresults.

2.4!ANewCompetitorintheRegion:China

SinceChineseleaderDengXiaopingextolledthe“Pacificcentury”whenhe

metwiththenArgentinePresidentAlfonsínin1988(Xu2003:99),SinoLatin

AmericanrelationshavebecomeamodelforSouthSouthcooperation.Although

thevolumeoftradeonlygrewfromUSD1.3billiontoUSD1.8billionduring

the1980s,thepoliticalslantthathaddominatedChinasLatinAmericapolicy

untilthengavewaytoamorestronglyeconomicorientation (Mann2005:

139f.).Thephaseofindifference,whenChinarestricteditselftoaweakly

developedculturaldiplomacyandselectivecontactswithrevolutionaryforces,

wasover.However,theoverridingimportanceoftheUnitedStatesforthe

AmericasasawholeimposedlimitsonanyexpansionoftheChinesepresence,

andthedominanceofauthoritarianregimesintheregionalsohinderedthe

initiationof morecomprehensiverelations (Mora1997a:94).Duringthe

1950s—notleastundertheswayofUShegemonyoverthecontinent—broad

supportforTaiwanhadbecomeestablishedinLatinAmerica,asaresultof

whichdevelopingrelationswiththePeoplesRepublicofChinawasnotonthe

agenda.FollowingtheCubanRevolutionof1959Chinapromisedthenewregime

“revolutionarysolidarity”intheantiimperialiststruggle,buttherelationship

remainedinsular,andastheCubancametoconcentrateontheSovietUnionas

hisstrategicpartner,evenCubadroppedoffChinasradar.

Chinasgrowinginternationalrecognitionfollowingarapprochementwith

WashingtonandadmissiontotheUnitedNationsin1971alsoreinvigoratedits

relationswiththestatesofLatinAmerica.Since1970thePeoplesRepublicof

Chinahasexpendedamassiveeffortonestablishingdiplomaticrelationswiththe

countriesoftheregion.Chinesesupportincentralquestionsofinternationallaw

anddiplomacysuitedLatinAmericanpoliticalinterests.Thisappliedtothe

establishmentofthetwohundrednauticalmileexclusiveeconomiczone;the

transferofsovereigntyovertheCanalZonetothegovernmentofPanama;and

thebanonnuclearweaponsinLatinAmerica(Mora1997b:42).Tothatextent,

Chinas“openingup”,whichbeganin1978,alsorepresentedaturningpointin

relationswithLatinAmerica,inthesensethatitusheredintheexportled

developmentoftheChineseeconomyandtheassociatedgrowingdependencyon

208   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

imports.Duringthe1990s,Beijingworkedtobuildcloserrelations,especially

withthoseLatinAmericanstatesthatstronglydefendedthenotionofnon

interventionininternalaffairs.Afterthe1989politicalturmoil,LatinAmerican

governmentswererestrained,whileChinafacedstrongcriticismfrom Western

countries.Inrecentdecades,ChinahassoughtdialoguewiththeRioGroupand

improveditsrelationswiththeCaribbeanstatesinparticular,oneformal

expressionofwhichwasitsjoiningoftheCaribbeanDevelopmentBank(CDB)in

1997andtheInterAmericanDevelopmentBank(IDB)in2009.

TheCaribbeanbasinandtheCentralAmericanisthmusremainamongthe

mainconcernsofChinaspoliticaldiplomacy,giventhat12ofthe26countries

thatcontinuetomaintain“diplomaticrelations”withTaiwanarelocatedinthis

region;in South America,only Paraguay maintainssuchrelations.The

CaribbeanalsorepresentsacrucialbridgeheadforChineseinvestments,because

fromhereChinacanexploitexistingpreferentialaccessagreementstogainaccess

totheUSmarket(Mann2005:136).Alsoduringthe1990s,Chinasteppedup

itspresenceintheSouthandCentralAmericanregionalorganizations,gainingobserver

statusattheInterAmericanDevelopmentBank(IDB),theLatinAmericanIntegration

Association(ALADI),theEconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

(ECLAC),andtheAssociationofCaribbeanStates(ACS).

ForChinasLatinAmericanpartnersthenewdynamismofthePacific

dimensionexpandstheiropportunitiestodevelopanewstrandofexternal

relationsalongsidethosewiththeUnitedStatesandwithEurope,wherethey

hadinitiallyconcentratedtheirdiversificationefforts.Theyhopeinparticular

thatexpandinggeoeconomictieswillallowthemtoreducetheironesided

concentrationontheUnitedStates.LatinAmericaregardsbuddingChinese

interestastheamalgamthatcouldfillthegapleftinrecentyearsbyEuropes

lackofinterest.AlthoughtheEuropeanUnionhasconcludedbilateralglobal

agreementswithMexicoandChile,subregionalunitssuchasMercosur,the

AndeanCommunity (CAN),andtheCentralAmericanIntegrationSystem

(SICA)arestillawaitingthesuccessfulconclusionofthenegotiationsonfree

tradeagreementswiththeEuropeanUnion.

ThemajorityofLatinAmericanstateshaveslipped,oftenwithoutserious

analysis,intotheoldroleofraw materialsupplierstotheglobaleconomy,

reinforcedonalongtermbasisbyChinasinterestinrawmaterials(Husarand

Maihold2005).ThepredominanteconomicinterestsdemonstratedsofarbyChinado

notappearlikelytodoanythingforLatinAmericaninitiativestoexpandtheirvalue

addedchaintoencompassproductswithgreatermanufacturingcontent.Onthe

otherhand,fewofthestatesintheregionhaveyetmadeanyseriouseffortsto

AFormatinSearchofSubstance"AnOverviewofRelationsbetweentheEUandLatinAmericainaEuropeanPerspective 209  

enlargetheirrangeofexportsfortheChinesemarketinsuchawayastoexpand

theirmanufacturingcapacities.

Alongsideimmediateeconomicinterests,theexpectationthatexpanding

tradewithChinawillattractmoreinvestmenttotheregionandleadtointensified

noneconomiccooperationalsoplaysaroleforLatinAmerica.FromtheLatin

Americanperspective,relationswithChinashouldnotonlyhelptointegratethe

regionininternationalraw materialsmarkets,butalsoensurethatChinais

permanentlytiedinto Latin Americasdevelopmenteffortsina “trade

cooperationnexus”thatwouldgeneratecooperationoverandabovethecurrent

tradingrelationshipandopenupajointdimensioninthedesignandorganization

ofdevelopmentprojects.Thatwouldallowfurtherdiversificationawayfromthe

UnitedStatesandEuropeanUnioninthisfield,too.

ChinasarrivalonthescenehascausedworrynotonlyintheUSCongress;

theEUisalsoconcernedaboutthemodalitiesofChinaspresenceintheregion.

Theredoesnotappeartobearealdevelopmentalinterestwhichwouldbevery

importantfortheregion;insomeways,the“nonconditionality”ofChinese

cooperationhasraiseddoubtsaboutitscommercialinterests,insomeway

parallelingtheexperienceswithChinaspresenceinAfrica.

Ultimately,LatinAmericaiscompetinginternationallyforEuropeanforeign

directinvestment,whichisincreasinglyflowingnottoLatinAmericabutto

China,largelyduetothehighgrowthratesthere.Thissourceofcapitalis

indispensablefortheregioninviewofitslowdomesticsavingsratesandis

absolutelycrucialforcountries,suchasBrazil,thatcontinuetosufferfroma

veryhighlevelofdebt.ThedecisivefactorwillprobablybewhetherLatin

Americasucceedsinofferingbetteraccessandguaranteesofgoodgovernanceand

stabilitythanitsAsianrival.

SinoLatinAmericantradeflowshavebeenexpandingatahighratesince

2000,andthereisnootherregioninwhichLatinAmericaregisterssuchhigh

growthrates:thevolumeofforeigntradewithChinarosefrom$2.4billionin

1991to$12.6billionin2000,beforereaching$40billionin2004.Altogether,

ChinasshareofLatinAmericanforeigntradehasrisenfrom1.2to4percent

(althoughtheincreaseisconcentratedinjustafewcountries,includingBrazil,

Mexico,ChileandArgentina),whilethecompositionhasshiftedsomewhatfrom

agriculturaltomineralproducts.Labourintensiveproductsmakeup86.3per

centofChinasexportstoLatinAmerica,whileexportsintheoppositedirection

are76.1percentraw materialsand23.9percentindustrialgoods.North

AmericanFreeTradeAgreement(NAFTA)memberMexico,whichexports

primarilyelectronicstoChina,mustberegardedasaspecialcase.Thevolumeof

210   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

SinoLatinAmericantradereached$100billionin2007,whichrepresentsmore

thanadoublingoftradebetweentheregionanditsnewAsianpartner(CEPAL

2008:151ff.).

IntherankingsofChinascumulativeforeigninvestmentLatinAmericahas

reachedfifthplace,butonlythreeLatinAmericancountriesareamongthe

twelvelargestrecipients:Peruatseven(notleastduetotheprioritygivento

ironproduction),Mexicoatnine(largelytheconsequenceoftheconstructionof

aChinesetextileplant)andBrazilattwelve.Overthecomingyearsbillionsof

dollarsofChineseinvestmentareexpectedtobedirectedintovariousrawmaterials

sectors:copper(ChileandPeru),ironandsteel(Brazil),nickel(Cuba)and

aluminium(Jamaica),aswellastheenergyresourcesofcrudeoilandnaturalgas.In

termsofagriculturalproducts,Chinasforemostinterestsareinsoyabeansandin

gainingaccesstoBrazilandArgentinaforChineseproducts(CEPAL2008:152).

ThedominanceoftheChineseresourcesecuritystrategyhasbroughtwithit

anadditionalincentivetorestructurethecorrespondingsectorsinthecountries

ofLatinAmerica,atradenexusquitedifferentfromtheEuropeanone.Justas

theexternaltradingentitiesfortheChinesesidearestateownedcompanies,the

leadingLatin American operatorsintheraw materialssectorsarealso

increasinglycompaniesthathavereturnedtostateownership.Thatmeansthat

jointventuresaregenerallybasedoncooperationbetweenstaterunenterprises,

whichgivesthemadirectlypoliticalcharacter.Theoptionsforstatecontrolthat

thisopensup,andconverselytheeconomicvulnerabilityinvolved,givethese

venturesadirectintergovernmentaldimension.Thesameappliestothe

appropriationoftherespectivereturns.Thisisgristtothemillofdomestic

clientelismandbilateraldiplomaticmachinations.Closelyassociatedwiththisis

thequestionofthefuturedevelopmenttrajectoryofsuchcooperativeschemes,

becauseoncethe“Chinahype”hasdieddown,theLatinAmericansidewillhave

toachieveasubstantialdiversificationofexportproductsfortheChinesemarket

ifitistoenjoyasecurefuture.

TheverylimitedsuccesstodateinmakingLatinAmericaeconomically

competitiveandthefactthatrentseekingisembeddedinthestructuresofthe

state(Boeckh2002)providessmallgroundsforhopeinthefuture.Whether

SinoLatinAmericancooperationwilltakeonalongtermcharacterwillprobably

dependdecisivelyontheextenttowhichLatinAmericasucceedsindiversifying

theeconomicandpoliticalagendaandexpandingintofieldsoutsiderawmaterial

exports.If,however,itseffortsfail,itwillhavemissedyetanotherrare

opportunity,apreoccupationquiteprominentinEuropewithregardtoChinas

activitiesintheregion.

AFormatinSearchofSubstance"AnOverviewofRelationsbetweentheEUandLatinAmericainaEuropeanPerspective 211  

2.5!FearsandHopes

Onthe犲犮狅狀狅犿犻犮犾犲狏犲犾,Latin Americais particularlyinterestedin

commercialrelationswhich,however,haveturnedouttobemoredifficultthan

before,duetotheperceptionthattheEUhasbeenconvertingitselfintoa

“Europeancastle”inordertoprotectitsagriculturalproducers.Themajor

pressureisthereforecomingfromtheagriculturalproducersinLatinAmerica,

whoarekeenonfreetradeagreementswiththeEuropeanUnioninorderto

achievebettermarketaccesstothehugeEuropeanmarket.Atthesametime,

LatinAmericaistryingmoreandmoretoattractEuropeaninvestorsandthusto

triggeranewperiodofEuropeaninvestment,whichinthepastdecadehasbeen

dominatedbySpain.Thegrowingimportanceofmigrationtoandtheremittances

ofLatin American migrantsbasedintheEU haveencouragedinterestin

developingnewideasandprogrammestodeterminehowthismoneycouldalsobe

usedtosatisfydevelopmentneeds.TheEuropeanperceptionthattheFTAA

negotiationsandthenegotiationswiththeEuropeanUnionwouldbemanagedin

acompetitivewaycollapsedinfaceofthesuddenandunexpectedhaltingofthe

continentalFTAAprocessbyLatinAmerica.

Onthe狆狅犾犻狋犻犮犪犾犾犲狏犲犾,afeelingof“alienation”andadivergenceintermsof

basicapproaches—duetodifferingpriorities withregardtotheagenda—

currentlydominate.ForLatinAmerica,themigrationissueandaccesstothe

Europeanmarketarethemostimportantissues.Europe,however,prioritises

suchmattersasdistributionandcohesion,theleveloftaxesanddutiesinstate

income,aswellastheappropriatemodelofregionalintegrationandtheneedfor

securityfor Europeaninvestmentsintheregion—allissues whichevoke

sovereigntyconcernsinLatinAmericancountries.

Regardingthe犱犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犪犻犱犪犵犲狀犱犪,therobustagreementbetween

LatinAmericaandtheEuropeanUniononthebasicquestionsconstitutesasolid

startingpointforthediscussions.TheEuropeanUnioncontinuestobethemajor

donortotheregion,buttheLatinAmericansidecomplainsaboutthelackof

coherencebetweenthebilateralandtheEuropeandevelopmentprogrammes

whicharebasedondifferentandinpartevencontradictorycriteria.Thefactthat

theEuropeanUnionisrepresentedintheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)

andWorldBankbyitsindividualmemberstates,whosepositionsarepretty

muchunpredictable,isalsoaneverendingsourceofconcern.LatinAmericas

governmentsalsocriticisetheconditionalityofEuropeanaid,theconstant

prioritisingofcivilsocietycooperationprogrammes,whichinthelongtermlimit

thecontrolofnationalgovernments,andtheentirelyunresolvedquestionofthe

212   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

handlingofthedrugproblem,theLatinAmericanpositiononwhichconsistsof

askingformoreactiontoreducedemandintheUSandEuropeatnationallevel.

Atthe犵犾狅犫犪犾犾犲狏犲犾,Latin Americahasdiscoveredin Chinaanew

counterpartinitseffortstobroadenitsrangeofexportpartnersandtomatchits

investmentinterests.ThishaschangedtheLatinAmericanattitudetowards

Europewhichisnolongertheonlydiversificationpartnerfortheregion,apart

fromthedominantrelationswiththeUS.Atthesametime,thegovernmentsof

LatinAmericahavestartedtosuspectthattheEuropeanUnionhasdecidedto

sacrificeitsstrategicassociation with Latin Americaifotherimportant

counterpartsatthegloballevelseemmorepromising.

2.6!PerspectivesandNewDynamics

Traditionally,commoninterestsandculturalvalueshavebeenseenasthebasisof

therelationshipbetweentheEuropeanUnionandLatinAmerica.Withtheincreasing

openinguptowardstheUSwayoflife,thebondwithEuropeanculturalvalues

anditsimportanceforpoliticalactionhasdiminished.Inconsequence,theLatin

Americanpartnershaveshownaninterestinreaddressingorevenquestioning

currentpositionsandtodosodemonstrativelyatthegloballevel.

Inthiscontext,manypeoplewouldalsoliketodiscussnewgovernance

issues,especiallytheimprovementofgovernmentsystems,decentralisation

processes,publicprivatepartnershipsandthelike.Recognizingthatgovernance

issuesareofgrowingimportancebeyondthenationallevel,majorcountriesin

LatinAmericahavebecomeleadersandprotagonistsintheprocessesofreformin

internationalregimes.Thus,theglobalagendaisofspecialinteresttothebigger

countries,suchasBrazil,ArgentinaandMexico,whicharetryingtostakea

claimtobetheleadingcountriesintheregion.Inthiscontext,thequestionof

triangularrelationsbetweenthe US,Europeand Latin America maybe

increasinginimportance,whichuptonowhasnotattainedbroadacceptancein

theregion.Ontheotherhand,theLatinAmericangovernmentsareinterestedin

developingtransatlanticrelationsinsuchawaythatSouthAtlanticrelations

mightonedayreachthesamelevelofintensityastheNorthAtlanticones.One

majorstepinthisprocesscouldbethedevelopmentofcommonpositionson

multilateralissuesininternationalpoliticsandinthiswaygiverisetosomesort

ofEuroLatinAmericanallianceininternationalaffairs.

MajorgroupsofLatinAmericanintellectualsstillcontinuetolookatEuropeas

theirmajorsourceofinspirationandarethereforedrivenbythenecessitytorebuildthis

relationship,startingfromcommonvaluesandnorms.Thisfacthassignificant

potentialintheefforttodevelopamorecoherentandsubstantialassociationnotonly

AFormatinSearchofSubstance"AnOverviewofRelationsbetweentheEUandLatinAmericainaEuropeanPerspective 213  

betweengovernmentsbutalsobetweencivilsocieties,traditionallythemostactive

playerswithregardtoEuropeanLatinAmericanunderstanding.

3.犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犐狀狋犲狉犲狊狋狊犪狀犱狋犺犲犇犲狊犻犵狀狅犳狋犺犲犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犺犻狆

Thestagnationofitsownintegrationprocessduetothestruggletoachieve

consensusontheConstitutionalTreaty—anessentialelementindeepeningthe

CommonForeignandSecurityPolicy(CFSP)—isaseriouslimitationonthe

EuropeaninterestinexpandingthecooperationwithLatinAmerica.Secondly,

theEuropeanCommissionandEUmemberstatesconsiderthatLatinAmerica

andtheCaribbeannationsareinsufficientlyactiveindevelopingacommon

positionininternationalaffairs,forexamplebyeffectivecoordinationoftheir

foreignpoliciesoratleastbyattemptingtodefineacommonforeignpolicywith

regardtotheEUinthecurrentandupcomingnegotiations.TheRioGrouphas

notprovedtobetheforumforpoliticaldialoguethattheEUexpectedittobe.

Ontheotherhand,theEuropeansaretryingtopromotetheirmodelofeffective

multilateralismasdefinedintheEuropeanSecurityDoctrine.Thisapproach,however,

demandsfromtheEUspartners—withregardtobiregionalrelations—highlevelsof

policycoordinationandtheabilitytocommitthemselvesininternationalconflicts.

TheseareelementswhichuptonowseemunderdevelopedinLatinAmericaand

representamajorchallengeforthecountriesoftheregion.Nevertheless,theEuropean

Unioninsistsonmakingitsconceptofpoliticaldialoguebetweenregionalblocsthe

centralmodalityofinterchangewithitsLatinAmericancounterparts.

ThemajorproblemtheEuropeanUnionisfacinginitspoliticaldialogue

withtheLatinAmericanstatesisthelattersdifferentinterpretationoftheterm

“multilateralism”:whiletheEuropeanstatesarelivingan“effectivemultila

teralism”,intheLatinAmericanstatesasortof“defensivemultilateralism”

predominates,whichmeansthatthereisalackofwilltotransfersovereigntyto

superiorinstitutions,suchasinternationalorganisationsorregimes.The

primaryconcernofmostLatinAmericancountriesisstilltheguaranteeof

nationalsovereignty.The European Union hasnotyetrecognised Latin

Americandifficultieswithitsnewheterogeneityandregionalcohesion.

Lastbutnotleast,theEUisdiscoveringthatLatinAmericahaslost

importanceincomparisontootherworldregions,afactorwhichreducesthe

attractivenessofLatinAmericaasanessentialEUpartner.

Concerningimplementationofitspoliticalinterests,theEuropeanUnion

facesaproblemofdeficientcongruencywiththeLatinAmericansubregion.

ThisisrevealedclearlybyarecentcommunicationoftheEuropeanCommission,

inwhichitstatesthat:

214   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

TheCommissionwishestosendapositivesignalindicatingthatEuropeis

interestedintheregion.Therewouldappeartobeanerroneousperceptionthatthe

EUistooabsorbedbyitsownenlargement,itsimmediateneighboursorproblems

elsewhereintheworld.Thisperceptionalsoraisestheissueofthevisibilityofthe

EUontheground,giventhecomplexityofitsstructuresanditsmeansofaction.

TheCommissionwishestoreaffirmthattheassociationwithLatinAmericaisnot

merelyamatteroffactbutisalsovitalfortheinterestsofbothregions,forboththe

presentandfuture.However,ifEuropeisreadytocommititselffurthertoLatin

America,italsoexpectsafirmcommitmentinreturn(EuropeanCommission2005).

3.1!EuropeanCFSPandNewChallenges

ThereseemtobemajorproblemswiththeCommonForeignandSecurity

Policys(CFSP)structureandtheformatoftherelationship,tothepointofa

growingdisenchantmentonthepartofthepartnersinLatinAmerica.Onthe

onehand,theEuropeanCFSPdemandshighperformingcounterpartsinLatin

AmericawiththeabilitytounderstandandhandlethethreeEuropeanstrandsof

(1)commonand(2)intergovernmentalpartsofforeignpolicyontheEuropean

leveland(3)memberstatesexternalrelationsatthenationallevel.Onthe

otherhand,thestrategyofinterregionalismisopeningupnewroadsofbilateral

arrangementswhichareunderminingtheoriginalconceptofpoliticaldialogue.

Atthesametime,wearewitnessingtheemergenceofnewleadingnationsinthe

regionwhicharetobetheobjectsofmajorattentionfromtheCommissionandin

futurecouldtakeonsomesortofregionalrepresentation.

Nowadays,someobserversarecharacterisingEULatinAmericanrelations

asa“relationshipwithoutemotions”.Thisistrueinsofarastheemotionalparts

ofthisoldbiregionalassociationhavebeensuffocatedatthepoliticalleveland

neglectedatthesociallevelonbothsidesoftheAtlanticforalongtime.

Therefore,newconstitutiveelementsonthepoliticallevelandin(civil)society

arerequiredtogroundandembedthestrategicrelationship.

HerearesomeessentialelementsoftheprojecttoreformtheEuropean

LatinAmericanrelationship:(1)Theimpracticabilityofsummitdiplomacymust

beovercome;(2)TheRioGroupnolongerfunctionsasarepresentativeofall

LatinAmericanpartnersandneedstobereformed;(3)Thereseemstobeaneed

fordifferentiationinEuropesexternalrelations,aswellasinintegrationpolicy;

(4)ThebilateralagendainEuropeandLatinAmericaincludesmostly“soft”

topics,which meansthattopicssuchassecurityarenotcoveredbythe

cooperationagreement;(5)Themixingofthetopicsofthepoliticaldialogue

agendawiththoseofthedevelopmentagendacreatesconfusionbetweenthe

AFormatinSearchofSubstance"AnOverviewofRelationsbetweentheEUandLatinAmericainaEuropeanPerspective 215  

LatinAmericanpartners;(6)ThevaluesandculturalidentitysharedbyEurope

andLatinAmericaincludeseriousbutoftennotexplicitmattersforpolitical

actionwhichhavetobedefinedandmadeexplicit;(7)TheEuropeanpointof

viewwhichconsidersregionalintegrationastheultimateobjectiveandthe

preferentialwayofcopingwiththeproblemsofinternationalrelationsisbasically

notsharedorlikelytobeadoptedinLatinAmerica;(8)Theselectivityof

contactsandthegrowingimportanceofsecondaryrelationsconfusesthe

partners:explicitly,thespecificrolebeingplayedbySpainintheIbero

AmericancontextisnotorganicallyrelatedtotheEU process;(9)The

potentialsanddangersoftheroleofSpainas“intermediary”,“bridge”or“main

doororchannel”forrelationsbetweenEuropeandLatinAmericahavenotbeen

evaluatedbyeitherside;(10)ThisraisesthequestionoftheEuropeanisationof

Spainsrelationswiththeregionorthe“IberoAmericanisation”ofEULatin

Americanrelations.

3.2!TheChallengeofAsymmetry

Almost10yearsaftertheirdeclarationofstrategicpartnershipinRiode

Janeiro,theHeadsofStateandPresidentsofLatinAmerica/Caribbeanandthe

EuropeanUnion(EU)metinLimaon1617May2008.Sincethismeeting

relationsbetweenthetworegionshavereflectedtheirbasicasymmetry.This

asymmetry,pivotalintheLatinAmericaninterventionsinthelastEULatin

AmericanSummit,notonlyexpressestheinterestinthedifferentiatedtreatment

ofLatinAmericaintradenegotiationsbetweentheEUandCentralAmerica

(SICA),theCommunityofAndeanNations(CAN)andMercosur,butalso

reflectscontradictorypoliticalprioritiesintermsofthematicinterests.The

agendaofthepresidentialmeeting,whichtackled,ontheonehand,poverty,

inequalityandinclusion(attherequestofLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean)

and,ontheotherhand,sustainabledevelopment,theenvironment,climate

changeandenergy(whichareofparticularinterestfortheEU)encountered

significantdifficultieswhenitcametofindingacommondenominator.Although

atfirstglance,intheLimaDeclaration,thefoodpricecrisisplayedacentral

role,transverselypermeatingallthemes,theinterestexpressedbyLatin

AmericancountriesinfindinganewframeworkofrelationswiththeEUismuch

morenotable.Inalmostallthethematicagreementsitispossibletoperceivea

livelyinterestinclearlyconveyingtheheterogeneityofthecountriesthatform

thesubcontinent,andtherequestthatthesedifferencesbetakeninto

consideration,withtheEUimplementingmultispeedmechanismsaccordingly.

Thissituationiseven moresignificantconsideringthescantinterest

216   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

expressedinintegrationinthefinaldeclaration;integrationhasindeedallbut

disappearedfromtheofficialdiscourseinbiregionalrelations.If,furthermore,

wetakeintoaccountthepresummitconflictsbetweenthemembersofCANwith

regardtothemethodofnegotiatingtheFreeTradeAgreement(FTA)withthe

EU,wewillclearlyseethecentrifugalforcesinoperationbetweentheposition

ofBolivia,ontheonehand,andthejointpositionofPeruandColombia,onthe

other.Itshouldcomeasnosurprisethat,aheadofthesummit,thePeruvian

PresidentclearlycalledforadecisionbytheEUtoholdtalksbetweenthe

aforementionedcountriesonanindividualbasis,adecisiontheEUsnegotiators

hadtoacceptinordertoadvancefurtherintheprocess.Asimilarfatecould

awaitthecurrentlystallednegotiationswiththeCentralAmericancountries.

GreaterflexibilityonthepartoftheEUisthedominantexpectationinLatin

America.AlthoughthePresidentshaveconfirmedtheirintentionofupholding

thesovereignequalityofallstates,attheLimaSummittheirinterestin

revampingtheirrelationswiththeEU wasvisible.Leavingbehind—atleast

partly—themessageofsocialcohesionusedsincetheGuadalajaraSummitin

2004,theLatinAmericanparticipantshaveshiftedtheirapproachbyasking

Europeforgreaterflexibilityinthedesignofcooperationprogrammesand

compliancewiththeMillenniumDevelopmentGoals,emphasisingthespecific

rolewhichmiddleincomecountries(MICs)mustplay.Thesameistrueof

referencestothequestforeffectivesocialpolicies,whicharebeingdifferentiated

bynationalcapacities,takingintoaccountsuchinstrumentsasthedirectbudget

supportmodalityanddebtcancellationforsocialinvestment.Asforthe

environmentandsustainabledevelopment,thedifferencesinhowthesematters

areperceivedarepatent.

3.3!LookingforNewFormats

Itisnotjustinstitutionalpoliticaldialogueinparliamentary,executiveand

civilianformatsthathasprovedtobeaneffectiveinstrumentinbuildingsystems

forcooperation;industryfocuseddialogueshavealsoflourished.Thepersons

responsibleforissuesrelatingtotheenvironment,drugsandimmigrationmet

aheadoftheSummitandshowedthatthisformatmighthelptoovercomethe

traditionallowproductivityattheseevents,withtheiradhocmultilateralism.

Accordingly,greatercontinuityhasbeenachievedintheperiodsbetween

summits,althoughthematterofsupervisingimplementationoftheagreements

achievedatthepresidentialmeetingsisstillpending.Theproposalofthe

PeruvianhostAlanGarcíatocommissionthesupervisionoftheagreements

achievedinLimabythe狆狉狅狋犲犿狆狅狉犲secretariatsinMadridandBuenosAires

AFormatinSearchofSubstance"AnOverviewofRelationsbetweentheEUandLatinAmericainaEuropeanPerspective 217  

untilthenextsummitisheldinSpainseemstobeagoodsuggestion,althoughit

doesnotmeettheexpectationsofgeneratingamoreflexibleinstitutionalformat.

Thefollowingpointsshouldappearontheagenda:

(1)EuropeandLatinAmericaneedtodevelopa狀犲狑犮狌犾狋狌狉犲狋狅狊犺犪狆犲狋犺犲犻狉

狉犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犺犻狆,andthatmeansfocusingonconcreteinterestsandpossibilitiesfor

cooperationinordertomovebeyondthelimitedandgeneralisingpoliticsof“lets

gettogether”or“domeafavour”;

(2)Together,theEuropeansandLatinAmericansmustgeneratea狀犲狑

犱狔狀犪犿犻犮犻狀狋犺犲犻狉狉犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犺犻狆tothepointthattheyneedless“cafeparatodos”

andmoretheidentificationofrelevantcounterpartsinspecificpolicyareas;

(3)Thereisaneedtocreate犪狀犲狑狅狉犱犲狉狅犳犻狀狋犲狉犪犮狋犻狅狀.Thatmeans

developingnewformatsforinterregionaldialogue,forexampleinthesenseof

the“conventionmethodology”experiencedwithinthecontextoftheEuropean

constitutionalprocessbybringingtogethermembersofParliamentwithfree/

independentpersonalities,businessmenandrepresentativesofcivilsocietyin

ordertopreparethedecisionsandreforminputsforsummitdiplomacy;

(4)Spainmustbeinducedtotakeonanewroleofconstructiveleadership

withrespecttoLatinAmericawhichcouldgiveamoreEuropeandimensionto

thetraditionalbilateralfocusofitsengagementintheregion;

(5)Inaddition,anew agendashouldbedefinedforthebiregional

relationship.Commercialandtradeissues,thepoliticaldialogueandthe

cooperationagendashouldnotbetreatedasdistinctissuesbutmoreintermsofa

majorintegrationwhichpermitsanewsynergy;

(6)Theopenthematicagendashouldbereducedinordertoconcentrateon

specificpriorities;

(7)Impetusshouldbegiventothepoliticalprocessbetweensummitsin

ordertomaketherelationshipmorecontinuousandsubstantive.

Amajorboosthasbeengivenbytheparliamentaryinitiative“EuroLat”.In

comparisontotheLimaDeclaration,whichentails57agreementscovering17

pages,themessagefromthesecondplenarysessionoftheEuroLatinAmerican

ParliamentaryAssembly(EuroLat),addressedtothepresidentialsummitin

Limaon1May,wasmorerefreshing,withmorepoliticalcontentandalonger

termvision.ThismessageadequatelyaccommodatesasymmetryinEuroLatin

Americanrelationsandtheaimistoreflectthisonthebasisofaconceptof

solidarityandcomplementarity.Atthesametime,itproposesaglobalinter

regionalpartnership,whichcould(alongwithprogressinpeaceandsecurity

cooperation)offerawholenewapproachtobiregionalcooperation.

Themessageconciselyandadequatelysetsforththenextstepsforfocusing

218   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

andstrengtheninginstitutionalandcooperationmechanismsbetweentheparties,

starting,forexample,withabiregionalcentreforconflictpreventionanda

centreformonitoringmigration.Theserecommendationsclearlypointtowards

realpossibilitiesforcooperationandcouldformpartofasystemintermsoftheir

institutionalscope withregardtocooperation.Thisshowsthevirtueof

cooperationanddialoguethatisnotobligedtocovereveryarea,withrepetition

ofthevariousglobalinitiativesthatdonotalloworreflectspecificityinEuro

LatinAmericancooperation.Inthisregard,parliamentaryactionseemstoyield

moreresultsthansummitdiplomacy,whichisunabletoshakeofftraditionand

isinevitablyshapedbyinternationalevents.Wemightthereforededucetheneed

toachievegreaterconvergencebetweenthe parliamentaryinitiativesand

executivedynamicstotapthevirtuesofeachoftheprocesses.

4.犉犻狀犪犾犚犲犿犪狉犽狊

ChinaspolicytowardsLatinAmericahashadonlyalimitedimpactonthe

EUspolicy.Firstofall,thetradeinterestsofthesetwopartnersintheregion

arequitedifferentandno“tradewar”hasemergedwithregardtotheregions

resources.TheLatinAmericancountriescoulddiversifytheirexternaltrade

relationsmore,whichhasindeedalwaysbeenoneoftheirmajorendeavours.Up

tonowthereisnoclearsignthatChinaisintentondevelopinganexplicit

politicalroleintheregion,presumablymotivatedmorebyareluctanceto

impingeonUSintereststhanafearofpossibleclasheswithEuropeanones.

USpolicytowardsLatinAmericawascharacterized,uptotherecent

SummitoftheAmericas,byasortof“benignneglect”,especiallywithregardto

SouthAmerica.WashingtonreliedespeciallyonBrazilasthemajorforceinthis

subregion.AnopenconflicthasexistedsincetheEUchangeditscommon

positiononCubaandcommenced,underSpanishleadership,apolicyofdetente,

whichiswhattheObamaadministrationisnowofferingtheCubangovernment.

FortheEuropeansidetheimpactofUSpolicyonitsactionsinLatinAmericahas

beenmoresystematiconcertainissues,forexamplethedrugwarandthe

conceptsusedbytheUSintheimplementationofitsstrategy.Ingeneralterms,

bothsideshavehadtoreconciletheirpositionsinmultilateralorregionalforaand

withintheframeworkoftransatlanticrelations.Withintheframeworkofthe

EUspolicyonLatinAmericatheconceptofatransatlantictrianglebetween

LatinAmerica,theUSandtheEUhasnevergainedmuchpurchase.

ForEuropesCFSP,LatinAmericawasthestartingpoint.Thecompatibilityof

commonandintergovernmentalelementshasthereforealwaysbeenpresentasa

majorchallengeduetotheprominentrolethatSpainhasplayedintheregionand

AFormatinSearchofSubstance"AnOverviewofRelationsbetweentheEUandLatinAmericainaEuropeanPerspective 219  

theinterplaybetweentheIberoAmericanprocessandtheEULatinAmerican

dialogue.WithEUenlargement,theelaborationofaCommonPositiononCuba

hasbeenmoredifficultand,ingeneral,interestinLatinAmericamayhave

diminishedinfavourofthedifferentregionalprioritiesofthenew member

states.UnitywithintheEUonpolicytowardsLatinAmericamaybedifficultto

achieveonsomepoints,butnonewdynamichasemergedtoserveasthegeneral

consensusbuildingmechanismoftheCFSP.Thepossibilitythatgeneralinterest

inLatinAmericamightbemoredifficulttomaintainisadifferentissue.

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Seidelmann,Reimund(2005),EULatinAmericanBiregionalismasanObjectandSubjectof

GlobalChange,in:WolfGrabendorffandReimundSeidelmann (eds.),犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊

犫犲狋狑犲犲狀狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犝狀犻狅狀犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪.犅犻狉犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犻狊犿犻狀犪犆犺犪狀犵犻狀犵犌犾狅犫犪犾

犛狔狊狋犲犿,BadenBaden:Nomos,1142.

Xu,Sicheng(2003),LalargamarchaSurSur:ChinavisavisAméricaLatina,in:犉狅狉犲犻犵狀

犃犳犳犪犻狉狊犲狀犲狊狆犪狅犾,3,95105.

220   !

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉2

犆犺犪犾犾犲狀犵犲狊狋狅犈犝犘狅犾犻犮犻犲狊狅狀犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋

犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀狑犻狋犺犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪

435, 6'+3'"3 7%'%1#8%

1.犐狀狋狉狅犱狌犮狋犻狅狀

ThischapterexaminesEUdevelopmentcooperationwithLatinAmerica.

First,itconsidersthechangesintheinternationaldevelopmentagendathatare

relevanttotheregion.Thisincludesthedebateoncooperationwithmiddle

incomecountries(MICs),implementationoftheParis Declarationonaid

effectivenessand SouthSouthdevelopmentcooperationin Latin America.

Second,itanalysesEUdevelopmentpolicytowardsLatinAmerica,focusingin

particularonitsregionaldimension,thestrategiesadoptedandthechallenge

representedbyadaptingcooperationtothecreationofa“network”ofAssociation

Agreements.Specialattentionshallbepaidtopolicyproposalstoimprove

developmentcooperationwithintheframeworkofEULatinAmericanrelations.

2.犐狀狋犲狉狀犪狋犻狅狀犪犾犆狅狀狋犲狓狋狅犳犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀犘狅犾犻犮犻犲狊狑犻狋犺犚犲犵犪狉犱狋狅

犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪

  Developmentcooperationandaidpoliciesaregoingthroughintensive

change,withregardtobothideasandpractices.Abroadinternationalconsensus

hasbeenachievedontheobjectivesofpovertyreduction,socialdevelopmentand

theMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs),whichforma“socialagendafor

globalisation”.TheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals—andGoal8inparticular—

alsoaimtoestablisha“globalpartnershipfordevelopment”withregardtothe

meansneededtoachievethesegoals,particularlymoreandbetteraid,anopen

tradingsystem,debtreliefandaccesstotechnology.Thisagendaisnotonlythe

responsibilityofadvancedcountries,butalsoexpressesthedevelopingcountries

responsibilityforimprovingtheirpovertyreductionpoliciesandgoodgovernance.

ChallengestoEUPoliciesonDevelopmentCooperationwithLatinAmerica 221  

TheEuropeanUnion(EU)hasbeenanimportantdrivingforcebehindthis

consensusandtheestablishmentofglobaldevelopmentgoals.Ithasincorporated

themintoitsowndevelopmentpolicy.Insomerespects,ithastriedtogo

furtherthanwhathasbeenagreedatinternationalsummits.Withregardto

increasingaid,theEUhasmaintaineditsinternationalcommitmenttospend0.7

percentoftheGrossNationalIncomeofthemostadvancedcountries,despite

theresistance ofother countries—such asthe United States—and has

unilaterallyadoptedatimetabletoachievethisfigurenolaterthan2015

(Economist2005;EuropeanUnion2006).

TheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsandtheMonterreyConsensus,adopted

in2002attheUNSummitonFinancingforDevelopment,haveleddonorsto

reallocateOfficialDevelopmentAssistance(ODA)tobasicneedsandtothe

poorestcountries,includingtheleastdevelopedcountries(LDCs)andlow

incomecountries(LICs).ThatmeansfocusingODAonsubSaharanAfrica,as

wellasonEastandSouthAsia,reducingorevenstoppingODAtomiddle

incomecountries(MICs)andespeciallytoupperMICs.ODAisalsobeing

increasedforcountriesinvolvedinthesocalled“GlobalWaronTerror”,suchas

Irag,AfghanistanandPakistan.

ThistrendismorevisibleinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,whereall

countries,exceptHaiti,areclassifiedintheseincomegroups.Datapublishedby

theDevelopmentAssistanceCommittee(DAC)oftheOrganisationforEconomic

CooperationandDevelopment(OECD)revealthattheODAreceivedbythis

regionhasincreasedinabsoluteterms,fromaboutUSD5billionin1998,to

USD8700billionin2008;butinacontextofstrongaidincreases,theLatin

AmericanshareoftotalODAshrankfrom12.3percentin1998to7.9percent

in2008.Anumberofcountries—USA,Canada,Japan,NetherlandsandItaly—

havereducedtheiraidcommitmentstotheregion;theUKandSwedenhave

closedtheirofficesandcooperationprogrammesthere;andthestrongincreasein

aidfrom SpainandtheEuropean Commissionhasnotbeensufficientto

compensatethesetrends(DevelopmentAssistanceCommittee2010).

Overall,theeffectoftheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsinLatinAmerica

hasbeentofosteramoreprogressivepatternofaidallocationandthereforeless

aidtoupperMICs,although “donordarlings”and “donororphans”were

included.Between2001and2006,OfficialDevelopmentAssistance(ODA)to

upperMICsfellbyover60percentforCostaRica,MexicoandUruguay,andby

roughly30percentforArgentina,ChileandPanama.LowerMICsexhibitan

unevenpattern,withaidreductionsforsomecountries,suchasBrazil,Ecuador,

ElSalvadorandParaguay.Incontrast,therehavebeenaidincreasestoother

222   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

countries,suchasBolivia,Colombia,CubaandHonduras.Giventhatchanges

inaidamountsarenotdirectlyrelatedtoincomelevels,itcanbeconcludedthat

theyareanoutcomeofdonorpreferencestowardsthesocalled犱狅狀狅狉犱犪狉犾犻狀犵狊to

thedetrimentofthesocalled犱狅狀狅狉狅狉狆犺犪狀狊,aswellasofalackofcoordination

amongdonors.Finally,aidtoNicaragua,theonlylowincomecountry(LIC)in

theregion,alsogrew.In2005,70percentofLatinAmericanODAwentonlyto

Nicaragua,Bolivia,Honduras,ColombiaandPeru;in20062008Colombia,

Nicaragua,Haiti,BoliviaandHondurasreceived45percentoftotalODAfor

LatinAmerica(DevelopmentAssistanceCommittee2010).

Colombiaisaspecialcase.Thiscountryreceived—atmorethan300per

cent—thelargestincreaseinODAduringtheperiod.TheUSled“GlobalWar

onTerror”,albeitunrelatedtothemotivesanddynamicsoftheinternalconflict

inthiscountry,becamethemaindriverbehindthestrongriseofColombias

ODA.AccordingtoOECDdata,from2006to2008Colombiaremainedinfirst

placeintherankingofLatinAmericanaidrecipients,receivingabout1billion

USdollarsperyear,or11percentoftotalODAtoLatinAmericaandthe

Caribbean(DevelopmentAssistanceCommittee2010).

However,itisimportanttorememberthatODAflowsarebecomingless

relevantforLatinAmericanMICsinthewidercontextofdevelopmentfinance.

Privateflows(foreigndirectinvestments,portfolioinvestments,privateloans

andremittances)areincreasinglyimportantforLatinAmerica,movingofficial

flowsdownintosecondplace.Thishassignificantimplicationsfordevelopment

cooperationpolicies.ODAislosingrelevanceasafinancingmechanism,but

gainingimportanceasaninstrumenttofosterpolicychanges.Atthesame

time,itisnecessarytoaddressawiderdevelopmentagendarelatedtothe

financialvulnerabilitycausedbythegreatervolatilityofprivateflowsandthe

riskoffinancialshocks,asseemstobeconfirmedbytheeconomiccrisisof

2009.

FollowingtheMillennium DevelopmentGoalsagenda,intheMonterrey

Consensusof2002,donorsopenlyrecognisedthe needtoimproveaid

effectivenessandchangethewayinwhichitisdistributedthroughanincreasing

numberofbilateraland multilateraldonors,andincreasinglyfragmented

channelsofaiddelivery.Thustheydecidedtoharmonisetheiroperational

proceduresinordertoreducetransactioncosts;tostrengthentheabsorption

capacityandfinancialmanagementofrecipientcountries;tomakeresourceflows

morepredictable;tousemoreappropriateinstruments,inparticular,budget

support;andtoprovideaidfordevelopmentandpovertyreductiondecidedonby

developingcountries,forwhichthelatterwerealsoresponsible.TheHighLevel

ChallengestoEUPoliciesonDevelopmentCooperationwithLatinAmerica 223  

Forum on Aid Effectiveness(HLF),comprising bilateraland multilateral

donors,aswellasanumberofrecipientcountries,hasadoptedimportant

documents,suchastheRomeDeclarationonHarmonisation(2003)andthe

ParisDeclarationontheEffectivenessofAid(2005).Thelatter,inparticular,

definedanewparadigmintherelationshipbetweendonorsandrecipients,calling

thelatter“partnercountries”,inaspiritofcoresponsibility.Thedeclaration,

signedbymorethan100donorsanddevelopingcountries,wasintendedtophase

outrelationshipsbasedonconditionalityandtotackletheproblemsresulting

fromtheproliferationofdonorsandthefragmentationofaid.Furthermore,all

ofthisisbasedontheprinciplesofownership,alignment,harmonisationand

mutualaccountability.

2.1!DevelopmentCooperationPolicieswithMICs:RelevanceforLatinAmerica

Theexistenceof“pocketsofpoverty”hasbeenclaimedasjustificationfor

themaintenanceofaidflowstomiddleincomecountries(MICs).Buttheaid

reductionstoMICshaveoftenbeenjustifiedonthegroundsthattherealproblem

inmanyofthesecountriesisinequality,notpoverty.Itisarguedthatitisnot

justifiabletohandoverexternalresourceswhentheinternalactorsthemselves

rejecttheredistributivepoliciesneededtoreducepovertyandinequality.

However,thisargumentwouldbecorrectonlyifreducingaidwaslikelyto

encourageinternalchangesandpropoorpoliciesindevelopingcountries,butthis

isunlikely.

ThereareotherimportantreasonsformaintainingaidtoMICsandtheyare

particularlyapplicabletothesituationinLatinAmerica.AsAlonso(2007)has

indicated,iftheaimistoeradicatepoverty,progressmustalsobemadeinthe

MICs,giventhenumbersofpoorpeopleinthesecountries.Second,theaid

systemwouldbeestablishingaperversesystemofincentivesandraisingamoral

hazardissueifprogressindevelopmentweretobepenalisedbyareductionin

aid.Third,itisimportanttoavoidbackwardstepsincountrieswhereprogress

hasnotbeenconsolidated,andincountriesathighriskduetotheirexternal

vulnerabilitytofinancialorothercrises.Fourth,thesecountriesalsooftenactas

regional“anchors”intermsofeconomicdevelopmentandregionalstability(for

example,MexicowithregardtoCentralAmericaandBrazilwithregardtothe

AndeanandSouthAmericancountries).Fifth,thefighttoreducepovertyand

promotesustainabledevelopmentpartlydependsontheadequateprovisionand

maintenanceofglobalandregionalpublicgoodsandthesecannotbeensured

withoutthesupportoftheMICs.Finally,inadditiontobeingrecipientsofaid,

thesecountriescanalsobedonorsthroughinnovativeSouthSouthcooperation

224   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

mechanisms.ThismeansthataidtoMICsmaymobilisemoreresourcesand

encouragethedevelopingcountriesthemselvesandtheirregionalorganisationsto

takemoreresponsibilityforattainingthe Millennium DevelopmentGoals.

AttainmentoftheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals,notablyinLatinAmericaand

theCaribbean,requiresconsiderationofspecificfeaturesoftheregionsMICs.

ManyMICshavehadperiodsofstronggrowthbuthavenotbeenabletosustain

itduetoinstitutionalweaknessandthelackofsocialcohesion.Furthermorethe

vulnerabilityoftheirinternationalposition,particularlywithregardtofinance

andtrade,andalackoftechnologicalcapabilitiesintheireconomicsystemshas

hinderedgrowth.Therefore,apervasiveagendaofdevelopmentcooperation

withLatinAmericanMICs,againstthevoicescallingforareallocationofaidto

thepoorestcountriesinAfricaorAsia,mustdealwiththreemajordevelopment

challenges:

(1)犐狀狊狋犻狋狌狋犻狅狀犫狌犻犾犱犻狀犵犪狀犱狊狅犮犻犪犾犮狅犺犲狊犻狅狀:Fragileinstitutionsundermine

thecapacitytoprovidepublicgoods,managedistributiveconflicts,dealwith

externalshocks,regulatemarkets,ensuresocialcohesionandtacklethehigh

levelofinequalitythatcharacterisesLatinAmericancountries.Allthesefactors

contributetoimpairthelegitimacyofinstitutions.Therefore,aneffective

cooperationpolicywithMICsshouldincludeimprovementsinpublicpolicies

throughinstitutionalreform,thereinforcementofspecifichealthandeducation

programmesandsupportforsocialforcesfavourabletochange.Onekeyaspect

thatillustratesbothinstitutionalweaknessandthelackofcohesionisLatinAmerican

countriesfiscalweakness,whichiswhysupportingtaxreformiscrucial.

(2)犉犻狀犪狀犮犻犪犾狊狋犪犫犻犾犻狋狔犪狀犱犮狅狌狀狋犲狉犮狔犮犾犻犮犪犾狆狅犾犻犮犻犲狊:Asthecrisesofrecent

yearshaveshown,thevulnerabilityofMICstofinancialshocksstemsfromtheir

highlyvolatilefinancialsituation.Thisrequiresbetterregulation ofthe

international financial markets through a “new international financial

architecture”;strongernationalfinancialsystems;solutionstotheproblemof

sovereigndebtbyadequateinternationalregulation,whichisstilllacking(InternationalMonetaryFundproposalsonthisaftertheArgentinecrisisof

20012002becameboggeddown);andgreaterautonomyforMICstoapplyanti

cyclicalpoliciestopreservetheprogressmadeinreducingpoverty.Withinthe

frameworkofG20agreementsaddressingthe2009economicmeltdown,a

numberofLatinAmericancountriesareapplyingalreadysuccessfulanticyclical

packageswiththesegoals.

(3)犘狅犾犻犮犻犲狊狋狅犳狅狊狋犲狉犮狅犿狆犲狋犻狋犻狏犲狀犲狊狊犪狀犱犻犿狆狉狅狏犲犪犮犮犲狊狊狋狅犲狓狋犲狉狀犪犾

犿犪狉犽犲狋狊:Investmentsininfrastructure,humancapitalandtechnologytransferto

productionarebettersuitedforMICsthanpoorcountries.Thiswillbreakthe

ChallengestoEUPoliciesonDevelopmentCooperationwithLatinAmerica 225  

“viciouscircle”ofexportinggoodsintensiveinnaturalresourcesandlow

productivityjobs,aswellasfiscalpoliciesthathindermuchneededspendingin

education,research,developmentandinnovation(RDI)capacities.Theregulationof

intellectualpropertyrightsbytheWorldTradeOrganisation(WTO)andregionaltrade

agreementscouldalsobeanobstaclebyreducingthescopefornationalpoliciesinthis

field.Whatcooperationpoliciesmightplayakeyrolehere?First,wellplannedtrade

liberalisationisrequired,throughagreements(bothregionalSouthSouthintegration

or“SouthNorth”tradeagreements)thatensureaccesstoexternalmarkets,increase

externalinvestmentandencourageinnovationandcompetitiveness,butthatalso

recogniseasymmetriesandallowfortheapplicationofactivepoliciestomitigate

thecostsofadjustmentandpromoteatransformationofproductionpatterns.

Thisistrueparticularlyinthecaseof“SouthNorth”agreements,inwhich

asymmetriesaregreater.EUandexternalpartnerscanplayakeyrolein

supportingthesepolicies.Cooperationinscienceandtechnologyprogrammes

thathelptogeneratedomesticcapacitiesandtechnologytransferprogrammesare

alsokeyelementsinthiscompetitivenessagenda.

WithintheframeworkoftheinternationalconsensusontheMillennium

Development Goals,therehavebeen variousinitiativesto promotethe

developmentagendaofMICsandavoidsimplisticapproachestoaid,withthe

backingoftheMICsthemselves,somedonorcountriesandthemultilateral

developmentbanks.TheMICsagendawasincludedinthe犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犆狅狀狊犲狀狊狌狊

狅狀 犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋 of2005 (European Union 2006), which maintained

thepriorityallocationofODAtolowincomecountries,butrecognisesthe

differentapproachesneededtodealwith MICdevelopmentproblems.This

agendahasalsobeenbackedbytheUnitedNations(UN)InterGovernmental

ConferencesonMICs(MadridandSanSalvador2007)andtheIberoAmerican

Conferences.

2.2!"PostliberalRegionalism#and"SouthSouthCooperation#inLatinAmerica

Postliberalregionalism and SouthSouth cooperation(SSC)are both

importantelementsinthedevelopmentlandscapeofLatin Americaatthe

beginningofthetwentyfirstcentury.SSCisnotnewintheregion,butithas

expandedinrecentyears,developedbilaterallybyanumberofcountriesandalso

byregionalorganisations.ThedevelopmentofSSCinLatin Americaisa

responsetoseveralfactors.Itispartofa“postliberal”reinterpretationof

regionalismandregionalintegration.Itshouldalsobeseenastheexpressionof

themoreactiverolebeingplayedbysomecountries,theirleadershipaspirations

226   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

andmoreassertiveforeignpolicy(Sanahuja2010a,2010b),aswellastheir

capacitytocontributetoattainingtheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsasdonors

andnotonlyasrecipients.However,asmiddleincomecountries(MICs)arenot

membersoftheOECDsDevelopmentAssistanceCommittee(DAC),their

contributionsarenotrecordedanddonotfitintoDACcategories.Thismakesit

difficulttoestimatetheirmagnitude.

SSCisofconsiderablerelevancetotheMICsdevelopmentagenda,asit

generatesbenefitsforbothdonorsandrecipients.TheMICsthemselvesbelieve

thatitmaybeabetterwayofmeetingtheirneeds,makinggreateruseoflocal

resourcesandgeneratingagreatersenseofownership.LatinAmericanSSC

modalitiesinclude “horizontal”and “triangular”SSC.Thehorizontaltype

involvesonlydevelopingcountries,buttriangularSSCalsoinvolvesfinancial

resourcesfromatraditionaldonor(advancedcountryormultilateralagency),

whilethehumanresourcesandknowhowcomefromdevelopingcountries.

RecognisingtheimportanceofSouthSouthcooperation,someDACdonors—

especiallyGermany,Japan,Belgium,theUnitedKingdomand multilateral

agencies(FAO,UNFPA,IICA)—havepromotedtriangulararrangements.

Mexico,Chile,Argentina,BrazilandColombiahavebeenactivelyinvolvedin

implementationandthemainrecipientshavebeenthepoorestCentralAmerican

andAndeancountries,ParaguayandtheDominicanRepublic(Xalma2007).

SomemodalitiesofSSCareconstructed withintheframeworkofregional

policies.Thisisexplainedbytheappearanceofnewregionaliststrategies

sometimescalled “postliberal”(Mottaetal.2007;Sanahuja2010),in

particulartheVenezuelanBolivarianAlternativefortheAmericas(ALBA)and

theattempttoredesignSouthAmericanintegrationwithintheframeworkofthe

Union of South American Nations (UNASUR). These proposals are

characterisedbytheprimacyoftheirpoliticalagenda,theirfocusonstateactors

ratherthantheliberalstrategiesofthesocalled “openregionalism”,more

emphasison common policiesin energy orinfrastructurethanintrade

liberalisationandconcernsforsocialissuesandasymmetriesofdevelopment.

Financialcooperationisalsopartofthisagenda,asillustratedbythe“South

Bank”.Additionally,regional“structuralfunds”areemergingtotackleregional

asymmetries,suchastheMercosurStructuralConvergenceFund(FOCEM).

DifferentpatternsofSSCcouldbeseenintheregion:

(1)Technicalassistanceandhighereducationcooperationfocusingonthe

poorercountriesofLatinAmerica(ArgentinaandChile).

(2)Technicalassistance,infrastructureandoilfinancingonpreferential

termsforCentralAmericancountries(Mexico)throughtheSanJoséoil

ChallengestoEUPoliciesonDevelopmentCooperationwithLatinAmerica 227  

agreementandthe“PlanPueblaPanam”.

(3)TheBraziliandecentralisedmodelofcooperationbasedonsemipublic

actorsandfocusingon Africaand Asia,particularly Portuguesespeaking

countries.Thisprogramme,whichservestheforeignpolicygoalsofBrazilas

botharegionalandaglobalplayer,includestechnicalassistancefromthe

BrazilianCooperationAgency,preferentialloansfromtheNationalEconomicand

SocialDevelopmentBank (BNDES)and HIV/Aidsdrugsprovidedbythe

OsvaldoCruzFoundation(Economist2010).

(4)The“Bolivarianproject”ofVenezuelaandCuba (Petrocaribeand

ALBA)isthemostextensiveprogrammeofSSCinLatinAmericaandopenly

linkedtoforeignpolicygoals.ItrepresentsanSSCframeworkbasedon

ideologicalaffinity ratherthan economiccomplementarity and would be

inconceivablewithoutVenezuelanoil.Therearesixareasofcooperation:(a)oil

financing(Petrocaribe);(b)socialcooperation,includingCubandoctorsmissions,

literacyandculturalinitiatives;(c)economiccooperationthroughjointventuresand

thePeoplesTrade Treaty (TCP);(d)aframeworktofosterbartertrade;

(e)infrastructureandcommunications(TeleSurandtheCubaVenezuelasubmarine

cable);and(f)monetaryandfinancialcooperationviatheALBAFundand

Bank.

3.犜犺犲犈犝,狋犺犲犃狉犮犺犻狋犲犮狋狌狉犲狅犳犃犻犱犪狀犱犚犲犳狅狉犿狅犳犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犘狅犾犻犮狔

TheEUhastriedtodevelopacommondevelopmentstrategy,sharedbythe

CommunityandtheMemberStatesalike,inaccordancewiththecoordinationand

complementarityof EU development policy. The European Development

Consensusof2005,whichconfirmstheEUscommitmenttotheMillennium

DevelopmentGoals(MDGs)andtheRomeandParisDeclarationson Aid

Effectiveness,establishescommonobjectives,definescommonprioritiesand

reaffirmstheneedforadifferentiatedapproachto middleincomecountries

(MICs)andlowincomecountries(LICs).Itestablishesthefollowingninepriority

areas:(1)tradeandregionalintegration;(2)theenvironmentandthesustainable

managementofnaturalresources;(3)infrastructure,communicationsand

transport;(4)waterandenergy;(5)ruraldevelopment,territorialplanning,

agricultureandfoodsecurity;(6)governance,democracy,humanrightsand

supportforeconomicandinstitutionalreform;(7)conflictpreventionand

fragilestates; (8)human development;and (9)socialcohesion and

employment.

TheEU,whichaccountsformorethanhalftheworldsOfficialDevelopment

Assistance(ODA),hasspecificallycommitteditselftotheprinciplesofalignment,

228   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

ownership,harmonisation,mutualresponsibilityandmanagementbyresults,as

wellastotheParisDeclaration.Inaddition,throughtheEuropeanDevelopment

Consensus,theEUhasundertakentoplayaleadershiproleinthisprocess,with

commitmentsadditionaltothoseadoptedbytheOECDsDevelopmentAssistance

Committee(DAC).Inordertoachievethis,Commissionproposalsassume50

percentoftotalODAthroughnationalsystemsandthedoublingofbudgetaid.

Thisinvolvesasignificantchange withregardtocooperation with Latin

America,especiallywithLICs,whichhavehardlyreceivedanybudgetaidfrom

theEU(Ayuso2006).InMay2007,theCounciladoptedanewpolicyonthe

divisionoflabourbetweentheEuropeanCommissionandtheMemberStates

which,inaccordancewiththeParisDeclarationandtheEuropeanDevelopment

Consensus,willencouragegreatercomplementarities,aswellasgeographicand

sectorspecialisation.

Since1998,theEUhasalsoundertakenanambitiousagendaofadministrative

reformthathastriedtoovercomeadysfunctionalorganisationalstructure,alack

ofpersonnelandbureaucraticbottlenecks.Therehasbeena“deconcentration”of

CommissionservicesandpersonneltowardsDelegationsindevelopingcountries

andimprovementsinstaffing.Anotherimportantaspecthasbeentheadoptionof

new budgetaryinstruments,which hasrationalisedthe wideranging but

fragmentedpanoplyofbudgetlinesandrulesthatwereinforcehitherto.1

ThenewDevelopmentCooperationInstrument(DCI)replacestheprevious

“geographicalbudgetarylines”andatleasttenthematicbudgetarylines.Ithas

anindicativebudgetofEUR16897millionfortheperiod20072013,ofwhich

EUR2690million(16percent)hasbeenallocatedtoLatinAmericatofinance

thefollowingpriorities:

(1)狆狉狅犿狅狋犻狀犵狊狅犮犻犪犾犮狅犺犲狊犻狅狀:throughtaxandsocialwelfarepolicies,

employment,thefightagainstillegaldrugs,educationandhealth;

(2)狉犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犻狀狋犲犵狉犪狋犻狅狀,includingtheinterconnectionofinfrastructuresin

coordinationwiththeEuropeanInvestmentBank(EIB);

(3)犻狀狊狋犻狋狌狋犻狅狀犫狌犻犾犱犻狀犵,goodgovernanceandprotectionofhumanrights,

includingtherightsofindigenouspeopleandminorities;

(4)supportingthecreation ofa犮狅犿犿狅狀 犈犝犔犪狋犻狀 犃犿犲狉犻犮犪 犺犻犵犺犲狉

犲犱狌犮犪狋犻狅狀犪狉犲犪;

(5)狆狉狅犿狅狋犻狀犵狊狌狊狋犪犻狀犪犫犾犲犱犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋,particularlytheprotectionofforestsand

biodiversity.TheDCIalsohasanindicativebudgetofEUR5596millionfor

“thematicprogrammes”2coveringallregions,includingLatinAmerica.

ChallengestoEUPoliciesonDevelopmentCooperationwithLatinAmerica 229  

4.犜犺犲 “犛狋狉犪狋犲犵犻犮犘犪狉狋狀犲狉狊犺犻狆”牶犘狅犾犻犮狔犇犻犪犾狅犵狌犲,犪狀犱犈犝犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀

犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀

  Fromitsinceptioninthe1980s,theEULatinAmericanpoliticaldialoguehas

evolvedinanumberofregionalandsubregionalsettings,withtheministerialdialogue

betweentheEUandtheRioGroupasthemostsignificant.In1999,a“Strategic

Partnership”waslaunched,includingbiannualsummitsofheadsofstateand

government.ThisStrategicPartnershiphastoitsnamesuchnotableachievementsas

theEUassociationandfreetradeagreementswithMexico(2000)andChile(2002).

Sinceitwasestablished,theStrategicPartnershiphashadtodealwithan

unfavourableinternationalcontext,andLatinAmericaseemstohaveslipped

downtheEUsforeignrelationsagenda.Thisisduetofactorssuchasthe

demandsofEU enlargement,andthedisplacementofEuropeanpriorities

towardstheeastandtheBalkans.Anotherimportantfactoristheprimacythat

securityandthewaronterrorhaveacquiredininternationalrelationssincethe

11Septemberattacks,pushingdevelopmentissuesintothebackground.

Moreover,withregardtotrade,theEUandsomeLatinAmericancountries

gavepreferencetotradetalksintheWTOwhich,withtheenlargementofthe

EU,meanttacklingthedifficultreformoftheCommonAgriculturalPolicy(CAP).Thisreform,whichtookplacein2002and2003,hinderedtheECs

bargainingpositionbymaintaininga“productivist”agriculturalmodel.The

difficultiesposedbytheagriculturalchapterandthe“WTOoption”meantthat

negotiationswithMercosurhavebeengoingonformorethantenyearswithout

success.ByprioritisingMexicoandChile,thecountriesthatoptedforfree

tradewiththeUnitedStates,theEUfostered,albeitinvoluntarily,the

perceptionthatthoseagreementswerea“reactive”movefollowingonfromUS

policy.

Beyondpoliticaldialogue,akeyelementbehindtheStrategicPartnershipis

EUpolicytowardsLatinAmerica,asdraftedbytheEuropeanCommissionand

endorsedbytheCouncilandtheEuropeanParliament.Sincethefirstadoptionof

astrategyonrelationswithLatinAmericain1994(CounciloftheEuropean

Union:1994),3theEU—andinparticulartheEuropeanCommission—hasset

outitsregionalstrategyforLatinAmericainaseriesofdocuments.4The

Communication犃犛狋狉狅狀犵犲狉犘犪狉狋狀犲狉狊犺犻狆犫犲狋狑犲犲狀狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犝狀犻狅狀犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀

犃犿犲狉犻犮犪,adoptedonDecember2005,wasendorsedbytheCouncilConclusions

ofFebruary2006,andsetoutprioritiesadaptedtothenewpoliticalcycleandto

changesinLatinAmerica.AccordingtothisCommunication,theEUaimsto

stepuppoliticaldialogue.Italsoproposestocompletethe “network”of

230   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

associationagreementswiththerestofLatinAmericaandtosupportregional

integrationprocesses.Alsoonthetableis moreintensedialogueonthe

environment,andamoreactiveroleoftheEuropeanInvestmentBankinsupport

ofregionalinfrastructure.Itstatesthatsocialcohesionisa“priorityarea”of

EULatinAmericanrelationsandcallsforthecreationofaEuroLatinAmerican

ParliamentaryAssembly—laterapprovedattheViennabiregionalsummitin

2006,andanEULatinAmericahighereducationarea.

TheCommunicationadoptedin2009,犜犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀 犝狀犻狅狀犪狀犱 犔犪狋犻狀

犃犿犲狉犻犮犪牶犌犾狅犫犪犾犘犾犪狔犲狉狊犻狀犘犪狉狋狀犲狉狊犺犻狆,whichcallsforamorefocusedpolitical

dialogue,concerningnotonlybiregionalissues,butglobalones,andforthe

firsttimetheECstatesthataspecificdialoguecouldbeestablishedwiththe

UnionofSouthAmericanNations(UNASUR).Italsosuggestscomplementing

EUsupportandcooperationwithregionalgroupings,aswellasastronger

bilateralrelationshipwithcountriesintheregion.Newcooperationinstruments

areenvisaged,suchastheLatinAmericaInvestmentFacility(LAIF).This

initiative,inspiredbytheNeighbourhoodInvestmentFacility(NIF),willpool

grantresourcesfromtheCommunityandpossibleadditionalgrantsfromthe

MemberStatesinordertofinanceinvestmentprojectsinthethreeareasof

infrastructure,socialcohesionandadaptationtoclimatechange.A new

instrumenthasalsobeenproposed,namelyanEULatinAmericanFoundationto

fostertheparticipationofcivilsociety,academicactorsandmutualknowledge.

5.犚犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀犪狀犱犛狌狆狆狅狉狋犳狅狉犐狀狋犲犵狉犪狋犻狅狀,犚犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犻狊犿犪狀犱犛狅犮犻犪犾

犆狅犺犲狊犻狅狀

  TheEuropeanCommunityisoneofthefewsupportersofregionalcooperationin

LatinAmericaandtheonlyoneinvolvedinbiregionalcooperation.Thebudget

frameworkexclusivelyforregionalcooperationwithLatinAmericaduringthe

period20022006amountedtoEUR264millionforregionalprogrammes(see

Table1).TheCommunityhasalsoestablishedtheEuropeanInvestmentBank

(EIB)fundinglinesofEUR40millionfortheAndeanDevelopmentCorporation

(CAF),andEUR35millionwiththeCentralAmericanBankforEconomic

Integration(BCIE).Regionalcooperationhasbeenlopsidedbecauseofthe

seriousandongoingproblemofdefiningacounterpart,sincethereisnoLatin

Americawideintegrationorganisation.ThustheEUhasoptedforregional

programmesbasedonthematic“networks”andconsortialargelymadeupof

decentralisedstakeholdersthatpromote“bottomup”regionalisationratherthan

formalisedandinstitutionalised“topdown”regionalism.

ChallengestoEUPoliciesonDevelopmentCooperationwithLatinAmerica 231  

犜犪犫犾犲1 犅狌犱犵犲狋犉狉犪犿犲狑狅狉犽犈狓犮犾狌狊犻狏犲犾狔犳狅狉犚犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀狑犻狋犺犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪,20022006

Nameandtimespan Budget Aim

AlInvest

19932007

EUR53millionin

stageI I I

ProvisionofservicestoEUandLatinAmeri

canbusinesstofostertradeandinvestment

URBAL

19962006

EUR 50 million(stageI I)

Localgovernment and local development

exchangeandcooperation

ALFA

19942005

EUR 54 million(stageI I)

EULatinAmericaacademicnetworks

ALBAN

20022010

EUR88million ScholarshipsforLatinAmericanstudentsto

undertakepostgraduatestudiesintheEU

@LIS

20022006

EUR77million LatinAmericaInformationSociety:toreducethe“digitaldivide”betweenthetworegionsandto

promotedialogueonstandardsandrules

EuroSocial(since2006)

EUR30million Thematicnetworkstoexchangegoodprac

ticesineducation,taxation,health,justiceandemployment

OBREAL/EULARO20042007

EUR1.3million EULatinAmericaRelationshipsObservato

ry:Researchandexchangestomonitorbi

regionalrelations

Source:EuropeanCommission2002,2007.

Subregionalprogrammeswith Mercosur,the AndeanCommunityand

CentralAmericahavebeenallottedmoreimportancewithregardtotheprovision

ofsupportforintegration and regionalism.Theyinvolvedtheregional

institutionsasacontactpoint,althoughthefinancialcommitmentwasfairly

low:from1996to2003,LatinAmericareceivedatotalofEUR3480million,

whichincludesbothallocationsfromtheRegulationconcerningaidtoLatin

AmericanandAsiandevelopingcountries(socalledRegulationPVDALA,to

useitsFrenchacronym)andhorizontalbudgetlines.Ofthesefunds,72percent

correspondtobilateralactions,17percenttoregionalprogrammesand12per

centtosubregionalprogrammes.5Althoughsomearenotrelatedtospecific

integrationagreements,EuropeanCommunity(EC)projectsinareassuchas

crossbordercooperationorwaterbasinnavigationalsomeetthatobjective

(DevelopmentResearchersNetwork2005).

Abasicpremisewhichwillhelpregionalcooperationtoproducepositive

resultsisthedegreeofintragroupcohesionandthecommitmentofLatin

Americangovernmentsthemselvestoregionalintegrationanditsinstitutions.

TheEChasneverthelessprovidedsupportduringaperiodofseriouscrisisfor

integration,whichhasconditionedtheresultsofECprojects.Thefailureof

232   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

regionalintegrationnotonlydamagesthereputationofthesegroupsandits

members,butalsoaffectstheEC.

Therelationshipbetweensocialcohesionandfreetradeagreementsalso

raisesanimportantissueofpolicycoherencefortheEUasitconcernsthe

treatmentofasymmetriesandthelinksbetweentrade,employmentandthe

environment.Itisdoubtfulwhetherthistypeofagreementfostersapositive

relationshipbetweenfreetrade and socialcohesion,a crucialissuein

developmentandthepovertyreductionagendainLatinAmerica.Inparticular,

thepossiblenegotiationofassociationagreementswithCentralAmericanand

Andeancountriesraisesmajorproblemsregardingthetreatmentofasymmetries

andtheirimpactonsocialcohesion.

6.犚狅犪犱狊犃犺犲犪犱牶犚犲犾犲狏犪狀狋犛狋狉犪狋犲犵犻犲狊犳狅狉犈犝犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀

ThischapterhashighlightedtheprincipalchangesarisingintheEUs

developmentcooperationwithLatinAmerica,includingtheadoptionofan

internationaldevelopmentandantipovertyagendadominatedbytheMillennium

DevelopmentGoals(MDGs).Moreover,ithashighlightedthestrategiesfor

achievingthosegoalsinthemiddleincomecountries(MICs),theincreasing

involvementofthelatterindevelopmentcooperationbymeansof“postliberal

regionalism”policiesandthegrowthof“SouthSouth”cooperation,aswellas

thenewprinciplesoftheParisDeclarationonAidEffectiveness.

Againstthisbackground,EUdevelopmentcooperationoverthepastten

yearshaschangedpositivelyandsignificantlytoadaptitselftotheabove

requirements,particularlyinitsstrategicorientationtowardstheMillennium

DevelopmentGoalsandpovertyreduction,administrativereform,planningand

programming.Ithasalsoadaptedthethree“Cs”(coordination,complementarity

andcoherence)andtherationalisationofbudgetinstrumentsandlines.6

AgreatefforthasbeenmadeintheareaofcooperationwithLatinAmerica

toadapttotheabovedemands,notablyintermsofnationalandsubregional

programming.Significantchallengesremain,however,partlyduetothechange

intheeconomicandpoliticalcycletakingplaceintheregion.Thesechallenges

areespeciallyvisibleinregionalcooperation.Throughthestrategydevisedby

theEUfor“strongerpartnership”andthecommitmentsassumedattheVienna

Summitin2006,EULatinAmericarelationsaremovingtowardsthebuildingof

a“network”ofassociationagreementsthatwillrequiresignificantchangesinthe

yearstocome.Inthiscontext,thefollowingstrategiesandproposalsare

relevanttoEULatinAmericacooperation:

(1)犕犪犻狀狋犪犻狀犃犻犱狋狅犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀犕犐犆狊:Developmentcooperationisa

ChallengestoEUPoliciesonDevelopmentCooperationwithLatinAmerica 233  

keyelementofbiregionalrelations,andtheEUsanditsmemberstates

commitmenttotheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsshouldnotleadtoareduction

inaidtotheregion,sincethatwouldhaveanegativeeffectonpovertyand

inequalityreduction,theachievementofotherdevelopmentgoals,democratic

governanceanditscontributiontotheprovisionofregionalandglobalpublic

goods.Thisalsomeansplayinganactiveroleinachievinganinternational

consensusoncooperationwiththeMICs,asdescribedabove.

(2)犌狉犲犪狋犲狉犃犻犱犆狅狀犮犲狀狋狉犪狋犻狅狀犻狀犃狉犲犪狊犚犲犾犲狏犪狀狋狋狅狋犺犲犛狆犲犮犻犳犻犮犖犲犲犱狊狅犳

犕犐犆狊:AccordingtotheEuropeanConsensusonDevelopment,theEU must

continuetodirectresourcestowardstheregionslowincomeandlowerMIC

countries,particularlyintheAndeanareaandCentralAmerica,usingtoolssuch

asbudgetsupportthroughnationaldevelopmentandpovertyreductionstrategies.

Atthesametime,cooperationwithupperMICsshouldcontinuetofocusonareasin

whichitcanbemosteffective,suchas:macroeconomicandinternationalfinancial

stability;institutionalcapacitybuildingand/orpolicydesign,inparticulartomake

publicpolicy moreeffectiveandefficient;taxreformsensuringsustainable

redistributivepoliciesandinvestmentsinhumancapital;policiesforimproving

international competitiveness, particularly investment in infrastructure,

research,developmentandinnovationsystems(R+D+I);andsupportfor

socialstakeholderspromotingpolitical,institutionalandlegislativechangesat

bothnationalandinternationallevel,andthosewiththecapacitytomobilise

additionalfunding,suchasmultilateralorsubregionalbanks.

(3)犐犿狆狉狅狏犻狀犵犃犻犱 犈犳犳犲犮狋犻狏犲狀犲狊狊:EU Leadership.Accordingtothe

EuropeanConsensusonDevelopment,theEUandtheEuropeanCommissionin

particularmusttaketheleadinapplyingtheParisDeclarationandinternational

commitmentsonaideffectiveness,whichinLatin Americaareparticularly

relevantforlowerMICsandLICs.Improvingcoordinationandcomplementarity

withMemberStatesisparticularlyimportant,avoidingtheriskofoverlooking

civilsocietystakeholders,whocontinuetoplayanimportantroleinnational

developmentagendasanddemocraticgovernance.

(4)犓犲狔犚狅犾犲狅犳犃狊狊狅犮犻犪狋犻狅狀犃犵狉犲犲犿犲狀狋狊:Whengeneratingdevelopment

opportunitiesforMICs,associationagreementscanplayanevenmoreimportant

rolethanaidtransfers,sincetheyensureaccesstoexternalmarkets,promote

externalinvestmentandfosterinnovationandcompetitiveness.Iftheyareto

playapositiveroleindevelopment,however,asymmetriesmustalsobeduly

recognisedandtheymustbedesignedtodealwithadjustmentcostsandthe

transformationofproductionpatterns,particularlyinthecaseofagreements

withtheAndeanCommunityandCentralAmerica.

234   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

(5)犃狊狊狅犮犻犪狋犻狅狀犃犵狉犲犲犿犲狀狋狊,犛狅犮犻犪犾犆狅犺犲狊犻狅狀犪狀犱犘狅犾犻犮狔犆狅犺犲狉犲狀犮犲:As

already mentioned,therelationshipbetweensocialcohesionandthefreetrade

componentofassociationagreementsraisesasignificantproblemofpolicycoherencefor

theEU.Concerningtrade,ensuringthattheseagreementshaveapositiveimpact

onsocialcohesionrequirestheappropriatetreatmentofasymmetries,supportfor

policiestoimprovecompetitivenessandtheestablishmentofincentivesconnected

tolabourandsocialrights,goodgovernanceandtheenvironment.7

(6)犈狀犺犪狀犮犲犱犛狋狉犪狋犲犵狔犛狌狆狆狅狉狋犻狀犵犚犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犐狀狋犲犵狉犪狋犻狅狀:Supportfor

regionalismandintegrationisakeyelementofthedevelopmentagendaofLatin

AmericanMICsbecauseofitspotentialandactualcontributiontodevelopment,

employment,competitiveness,governanceandinstitutionalcapacitybuilding,

andtotheprovisionofregionalpublicgoods.TheEU mustmaintainthis

supportthroughabroaderstrategy,notlimitedtotrade.Itisimportanttobe

awareofthechangesoccurringintheregionalintegration“map”,particularlyas

regards Andean CommunityMercosur convergence,the enlargement of

Mercosurandtheformation ofthe Union ofSouth American Nations

(UNASUR).Cooperationwithsubregionalgroupsmustalsoadapttothe“post

liberal”integrationagendas,whichgobeyondtradeliberalisationandextendto

regionalpoliciesinfieldssuchaspeaceandsecurity,transportandenergy

infrastructure,andcrossbordercooperation;environmentandclimatechange,

disasterriskreductionand mitigation;“bottomup”regionalisationbythe

formationofregionalcivilsocietynetworksthatcanplayanactiveroleinthe

process;and the correction ofregionalasymmetries to ensureincome

convergenceas wellassocialandterritorialcohesion.Thenew program

“Euroclima”,launchedatthe2008ViennaSummit,andalsothenewLatin

AmericaInvestmentFacility(LAIF)couldplayanimportantroleinthesefields.

(7)犌狉犲犪狋犲狉犃狋狋犲狀狋犻狅狀狋狅犛狅狌狋犺犛狅狌狋犺犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀犫狔犕犲犪狀狊狅犳犜狉犻犪狀犵狌犾犪狉

犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀犕犲犮犺犪狀犻狊犿狊:TheincreaseinSSCconfirmsthegrowingroleofthe

moreadvancedLatinAmericancountriesintheregionsintegrationprocessesand

development.SuchcooperationprovidesopportunitiesfortheEUintermsofthe

following:the mobilisationofadditionalresources,financial,humanand

technical;adaptationtotheregionsneeds;greaterinvolvementofLatin

Americanstakeholders;andthestrengtheningoftheinstitutionalcapacitiesof

donorsandrecipientsalike.Insomerespects,theregionalprogrammesandtheir

methodologyofworkingwith“networks”ofdecentralisedstakeholdersmaybe

anappropriatebasisforpromotingthistypeofcooperation.

(8)犐犿狆狉狅狏犲犿犲狀狋狅犳犕狌狋狌犪犾犓狀狅狑犾犲犱犵犲犪狀犱犛狅犮犻犪犾犘犪狉狋犻犮犻狆犪狋犻狅狀犻狀犅犻

狉犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊:Apermanentbiregionalorganisationmustbeestablished

ChallengestoEUPoliciesonDevelopmentCooperationwithLatinAmerica 235  

whoseprioritiesincludeexpandingtheparticipationofthemanystakeholders

involvedinbiregionalrelationsandmonitoringthebiregionalagenda.This

organisation,alreadyproposedasaEuroLatinAmericaFoundation,wouldbea

publicprivateinitiative,withtheCommissionandtheEuropeanParliamentplayingan

importantroleinitsimplementation,strategicorientationandfunding.

(9)犆狅犿狆狉犲犺犲狀狊犻狏犲犛狋狉犪狋犲犵狔犳狅狉犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀犻狀犛犮犻犲狀犮犲犪狀犱犜犲犮犺狀狅犾狅犵狔:

Theincreasingimportanceofresearch,developmentandinnovation(R+D+I)

forLatinAmericanandCaribbeanMICsrequiresacomprehensivestrategythat

encompasses EULatin American/Caribbean(LAC)relations as a whole.

Politicaldialogueat ministeriallevelhasalready begun,andsignificant

developmentcooperationinitiativesexist.Itisneverthelessimportanttoensure

theconsistencyoftechnologytransfercommitmentsadopted withinsuch

dialogue,thecurrentdesignoftheassociationagreementsregardingrulesfor

protectingintellectualpropertyrightsandtheneedtointroducepoliciesfor

improvingcompetitiveness.ThecurrentdispersalofECinstrumentsmustbe

correctedinordertoensurethattheyhelptostrengthennationalR+D+I

capacities.

(10)犜狅狑犪狉犱狊犪犈狌狉狅犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀犪狀犱犆犪狉犻犫犫犲犪狀犎犻犵犺犲狉犈犱狌犮犪狋犻狅狀

犃狉犲犪:ThebuildingofanEULACcommonareaofhighereducationandresearch

ispartofthebiregionalagendaofsocialcohesion,regionalintegrationand

mutualknowledgeofthe “strategicpartnership”.A broadprogrammeof

academicmobilitybetweenthetworegionsmustbedesigned,anditcouldbe

basedonexistingeducationalandresearchinstitutionsandnetworks.Itis

thereforeimportanttoensuretheconvergencebetweenaccreditationsystems.

Morethanofferingindividualscholarships,thisprogrammemustfosterand

developresearchbasedcentresofexcellenceandmustbringmobilityintoboth

partiesresearchprojects.

Notes

1.Thesenewinstrumentsare:theEuropeanNeighbourhoodandPartnershipInstrument;the

InstrumentforPreAccessionAssistance;and,coveringLatinAmerica,theFinancial

InstrumentforDevelopmentCooperation (DCI);theFinancialInstrumentforthe

PromotionofDemocracyandHumanRights(whichreplacesthepreviousEuropean

InitiativeforDemocracyandHumanRights);aswellastheInstrumentforStability(whichreplacesthepreviousRapidReactionMechanism).Themostimportant,because

ofitscoverageandresources,isthenewDCI.

2.犐狀狏犲狊狋犻狀犵犻狀狆犲狅狆犾犲(socialandhumandevelopment)withabudgetofEUR1,060million;

狀狅狀狊狋犪狋犲犪犮狋狅狉狊犪狀犱犾狅犮犪犾犪狌狋犺狅狉犻狋犻犲狊犻狀犱犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋(cofinancingwithNGOsandlocal

governments),withabudgetofEUR1,639 million;犲狀狏犻狉狅狀犿犲狀狋犪狀犱狊狌狊狋犪犻狀犪犫犾犲

236   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

犿犪狀犪犵犲犿犲狀狋狅犳狀犪狋狌狉犪犾狉犲狊狅狌狉犮犲狊犻狀犮犾狌犱犻狀犵犲狀犲狉犵狔,withfundingamountingtoEUR804

million;犳狅狅犱狊犲犮狌狉犻狋狔(MillenniumDevelopmentGoalsonhungerandmalnutrition),with

abudgetofEUR1,709million;and犿犻犵狉犪狋犻狅狀犪狀犱犪狊狔犾狌犿 (managementofmigration

flows),withabudgetofEUR384million.

3.Thispolicydocument,albeitnameda“strategy”,isnota“CommonStrategy”,themost

relevantpolicyplanningdocumentintheframeworkoftheEuropeanCommonForeignand

SecurityPolicy(ECFSP).Sofar,therehavebeenonlythreeCommonStrategies:forthe

Mediterraneanregion,RussiaandUkraine.

4.TheyincludeCommissionCommunicationstotheCouncilandtheEuropeanParliament

definingEuropeanCommunitypolicytowardsLatinAmerica,andarethereforepartofthe

Communitysdecisionmakingprocess.Inaddition,thereareprogrammingdocumentsfor

developmentcooperationcalledRegionalandSubregionalStrategyPapers(RSPs)and

CountryStrategyPapers(CSPs).Infact,theexistenceofacoherentprogramming

frameworkisrelativelyrecent.Theperiod20072013isthefirstin whichthese

programmingframeworks have beenfully setout.Thetwolatest Commission

Communicationssettingpoliticalprioritieswerepublishedin2005and2009(European

Commission2005a,2005b,2009).

5.Thesumisslightlyhigherthan100percentbecauseofroundingup.

6.Thesechangeshavebeenrecognisedbythe Development Assistance Committees

evaluationofECcooperation(DevelopmentAssistanceCommittee2007).

7.SomeoftheseincentiveswerealreadybuiltoninthetradepreferencesoftheGSPplus,

coveringbothregionalgroupings.

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狉犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犻狊犿狅狔犪狆狌犲狊狋犪狆狅狉狌狀犪狀狌犲狏犪犲狊狋狉犪狋犲犵犻犪犱犲犮犪狉犮狋犲狉犫犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犻狊狋犪?,Madrid:

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Ayuso,Anna(2006),犃狀犾犻狊犻狊犱犲狏犻犪犫犻犾犻犱犪犱犱犲犾犉狅狀犱狅犱犲犛狅犾犻犱犪狉犻犱犪犱犅犻狉狉犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犝狀犻ó狀

犈狌狉狅狆犲犪犃犿é狉犻犮犪犔犪狋犻狀犪狆狉狅狆狌犲狊狋狅狆狅狉犲犾犘犪狉犾犪犿犲狀狋狅犈狌狉狅狆犲狅,Brussels:European

Parliament,DGExternalPoliciesoftheUnion,26February.

CounciloftheEuropeanUnion(1994),犇狅犮狌犿犲狀狋狅犫狊犻犮狅狊狅犫狉犲犾犪狊狉犲犾犪犮犻狅狀犲狊犱犲犾犪犝狀犻ó狀

犈狌狉狅狆犲犪犮狅狀犃犿é狉犻犮犪犔犪狋犻狀犪狔犲犾犆犪狉犻犫犲(adoptedbytheCounciloftheEuropeanUnion

on31October),Madrid:InstituteforEuroLatinAmericanRelations(IRELA).

DevelopmentAssistanceCommittee (2007),犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犆狅犿犿狌狀犻狋狔 犇犃犆 犘犲犲狉犚犲狏犻犲狑,

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Paris:OECD.

DevelopmentAssistanceCommittee(2010),犃犻犱犪狋犪犌犾犪狀犮犲.犛狋犪狋犻狊狋犻犮狊犫狔犚犲犵犻狅狀2010

犈犱犻狋犻狅狀,Paris:OECD,online:www.oecd.org/dac.

DevelopmentResearchersNetwork(2004),犈狏犪犾狌犪犮犻ó狀犱犲犾犪狆狅狔狅犱犲犾犪犆犈犪犾犕犲狉犮犪犱狅

犆狅犿ú狀犱犲犾犛狌狉 (犕犲狉犮狅狊狌狉),Brussels:DevelopmentResearchersNetwork(DRN)/

ComisiónEuropea/Europeaid,3,May.

DevelopmentResearchersNetwork(2005),犈狏犪犾狌犪犮犻ó狀犱犲犾犪犲狊狋狉犪狋犲犵犻犪狉犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犱犲犾犪犆犈犲狀

犃犿é狉犻犮犪犔犪狋犻狀犪.犈狏犪犾狌犪犮犻ó狀狆犪狉犪犾犪犆狅犿犻狊犻ó狀犈狌狉狅狆犲犪,犐狀犳狅狉犿犲犱犲狊í狀狋犲狊犻狊,Brussels:

DevelopmentResearchersNetwork(DRN)/ComisiónEuropea/Europeaid,3,July.

DevelopmentResearchersNetwork(2007),犈狏犪犾狌犪犮犻ó狀犱犲犾犪犲狊狋狉犪狋犲犵犻犪狉犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犱犲犾犪犆犈犲狀

犃犿é狉犻犮犪犆犲狀狋狉犪犾.犈狏犪犾狌犪犮犻ó狀狆犪狉犪犾犪 犆狅犿犻狊犻ó狀 犈狌狉狅狆犲犪,犐狀犳狅狉犿犲犱犲狊í狀狋犲狊犻狊,

Brussels:DevelopmentResearchersNetwork(DRN)/ComisiónEuropea/Europeaid,2,

October.

犈犮狅狀狅犿犻狊狋(2005),TheUNsMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.AspirationsandObligations,8

September.

犈犮狅狀狅犿犻狊狋(2010),BrazilsForeignAidProgramme:SpeakSoftlyandCarryaBlankCheque,

15July.

EuropeanCommission(1995a),犜犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犝狀犻狅狀犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪:犜犺犲犘狉犲狊犲狀狋犛犻狋狌犪狋犻狅狀

犪狀犱犘狉狅狊狆犲犮狋狊犳狅狉犆犾狅狊犲狉犘犪狉狋狀犲狉狊犺犻狆19962000.犆狅犿犿狌狀犻犮犪狋犻狅狀犳狉狅犿狋犺犲犆狅犿犿犻狊狊犻狅狀狋狅狋犺犲

犆狅狌狀犮犻犾犪狀犱狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犘犪狉犾犻犪犿犲狀狋,Brussels:COM(95)495,23October.

EuropeanCommission (1995b),犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犆狅犿犿狌狀犻狋狔犛狌狆狆狅狉狋犳狅狉犚犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犈犮狅狀狅犿犻犮

犐狀狋犲犵狉犪狋犻狅狀 犈犳犳狅狉狋狊 犪犿狅狀犵 犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犻狀犵 犆狅狌狀狋狉犻犲狊. 犆狅犿犿狌狀犻犮犪狋犻狅狀 犳狉狅犿 狋犺犲

犆狅犿犿犻狊狊犻狅狀,Brussels:COM(95)219final,16June.

EuropeanCommission(1999),犆狅犿犿狌狀犻犮犪狋犻狅狀犳狉狅犿狋犺犲犆狅犿犿犻狊狊犻狅狀狅狀犪犖犲狑犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀

犝狀犻狅狀犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪犘犪狉狋狀犲狉狊犺犻狆狅狀狋犺犲犈狏犲狅犳狋犺犲21狊狋犆犲狀狋狌狉狔,Brussels:COM(99)

105,9March.

EuropeanCommission(2000),犆狅犿犿狌狀犻犮犪狋犻狅狀犳狉狅犿狋犺犲犆狅犿犿犻狊狊犻狅狀狋狅狋犺犲犆狅狌狀犮犻犾犪狀犱狋犺犲

犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犘犪狉犾犻犪犿犲狀狋.犉狅犾犾狅狑狌狆狋狅狋犺犲犉犻狉狊狋犛狌犿犿犻狋犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪,狋犺犲

犆犪狉犻犫犫犲犪狀犪狀犱狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犝狀犻狅狀,Brussels:COM(2000)670,31October.

EuropeanCommission(2001),犕犲犪狊狌狉犲狊犜犪犽犲狀犪狀犱狋狅犅犲犜犪犽犲狀犫狔狋犺犲犆狅犿犿犻狊狊犻狅狀狋狅

犃犱犱狉犲狊狊狋犺犲犘狅狏犲狉狋狔 犚犲犱狌犮狋犻狅狀 犗犫犼犲犮狋犻狏犲狅犳 犈犆 犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犘狅犾犻犮狔,Brussels:

CommissionStaffWorkingPaper,SEC(2001)1317,26June.

EuropeanCommission(2002),犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪犚犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犛狋狉犪狋犲犵狔犇狅犮狌犿犲狀狋.20022006

犘狉狅犵狉犪犿犿犻狀犵,Brussels:AIDCO/0021/2002,April.

EuropeanCommission(2004),犆狅犿犿狌狀犻犮犪狋犻狅狀犳狉狅犿狋犺犲犆狅犿犿犻狊狊犻狅狀狋狅狋犺犲犆狅狌狀犮犻犾犪狀犱狋犺犲

犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犘犪狉犾犻犪犿犲狀狋狅狀狋犺犲犆狅犿犿犻狊狊犻狅狀狊犗犫犼犲犮狋犻狏犲狊,犻狀狋犺犲犉狉犪犿犲狑狅狉犽狅犳狋犺犲

犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犫犲狋狑犲犲狀狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犝狀犻狅狀犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪,犻狀犞犻犲狑狅犳狋犺犲3狉犱犛狌犿犿犻狋

狅犳犎犲犪犱狊狅犳犛狋犪狋犲犪狀犱犌狅狏犲狉狀犿犲狀狋狅犳狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犝狀犻狅狀犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪犪狀犱狋犺犲

犆犪狉犻犫犫犲犪狀狋狅犫犲犎犲犾犱犻狀犌狌犪犱犪犾犪犼犪狉犪 (犕犲狓犻犮狅)狅狀28犕犪狔2004,Brussels:COM

(2004)220final,7April.

EuropeanCommission(2005a),犆狅犿犿狌狀犻犮犪狋犻狅狀犳狉狅犿狋犺犲犆狅犿犿犻狊狊犻狅狀狋狅狋犺犲犆狅狌狀犮犻犾犪狀犱狋犺犲

犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犘犪狉犾犻犪犿犲狀狋.犃犮犮犲犾犲狉犪狋犻狀犵 犘狉狅犵狉犲狊狊狋狅狑犪狉犱狊 犃狋狋犪犻狀犻狀犵狋犺犲 犕犻犾犾犲狀狀犻狌犿

238   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犌狅犪犾狊—犉犻狀犪狀犮犻狀犵犳狅狉犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犪狀犱犃犻犱犈犳犳犲犮狋犻狏犲狀犲狊狊,Brussels:

COM(2005)133final,SEC453,454,12March.

EuropeanCommission(2005b),犆狅犿犿狌狀犻犮犪狋犻狅狀犳狉狅犿狋犺犲犆狅犿犿犻狊狊犻狅狀狋狅狋犺犲犆狅狌狀犮犻犾犪狀犱狋犺犲

犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犘犪狉犾犻犪犿犲狀狋.犃犛狋狉狅狀犵犲狉犘犪狉狋狀犲狉狊犺犻狆犫犲狋狑犲犲狀狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犝狀犻狅狀犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀

犃犿犲狉犻犮犪,Brussels:COM(2005)636final,8December.

EuropeanCommission(2007),犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪.犚犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犘狉狅犵狉犪犿犿犻狀犵犇狅犮狌犿犲狀狋2007

2013,Brussels:E/2007/1417,12July.

EuropeanCommission(2009),犜犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犝狀犻狅狀犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪:犌犾狅犫犪犾犘犾犪狔犲狉狊犻狀

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犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犫犲狋狑犲犲狀狋犺犲 犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀 犝狀犻狅狀犪狀犱 犔犪狋犻狀 犃犿犲狉犻犮犪,2000/2249 (INI),

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犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪,(2005/2241(INI),CommitteeonForeignAffairs,HumanRights,

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EuropeanUnion(2006),犑狅犻狀狋犇犲犮犾犪狉犪狋犻狅狀犫狔狋犺犲犆狅狌狀犮犻犾犪狀犱狋犺犲犚犲狆狉犲狊犲狀狋犪狋犻狏犲狊狅犳狋犺犲

犌狅狏犲狉狀犿犲狀狋狊狅犳狋犺犲 犕犲犿犫犲狉犛狋犪狋犲狊 犕犲犲狋犻狀犵 狑犻狋犺犻狀狋犺犲犆狅狌狀犮犻犾,狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀

犘犪狉犾犻犪犿犲狀狋犪狀犱狋犺犲犆狅犿犿犻狊狊犻狅狀狅狀狋犺犲犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犘狅犾犻犮狔狅犳狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犝狀犻狅狀

犈狀狋犻狋犾犲犱“犜犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犆狅狀狊犲狀狊狌狊”,OfficialJournalC46,24February.

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犛狌犾:狅狉犻犵犲狀狊,犻狀犻犮犻犪狋犻狏犪狊犲犱犻犾犲犿犪狊,SantiagodeChile:CEPAL,seriecomercio

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Xalma,Cristina(2007),犐狀犳狅狉犿犲狊狅犫狉犲犮狅狅狆犲狉犪犮犻ó狀犲狀犐犫犲狉狅犪犿é狉犻犮犪,Madrid:Secretaría

GeneralIberoamericana(SEGIB).

Xalma,Cristina(2008),犐犐犐狀犳狅狉犿犲狊狅犫狉犲犮狅狅狆犲狉犪犮犻ó狀犛狌狉犛狌狉犲狀犐犫犲狉狅犪犿é狉犻犮犪.Madrid:

SecretaríaGeneralIberoamericana(SEGIB).

240   !

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犃犖犲狑犈狉犪犳狅狉犆犺犻狀犪犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊牶

犕狅狉犲犗狆狆狅狉狋狌狀犻狋犻犲狊狋犺犪狀犆犺犪犾犾犲狀犵犲狊

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1.犐狀狋狉狅犱狌犮狋犻狅狀

SeparatedbythePacificOceanandculturaldifferences,hithertoLatin

AmericaandChinahavehadlittleknowledgeofoneanotherandonlylooseties.

Inanincreasinglyglobalworld,however,thedistanceseemstoberapidly

diminishingandtransPacificcountriesarebecominggoodneighbours.Chinas

integrationintotheworldeconomyistransformingitfromaregionalplayerinto

anemergingglobalplayer.LatinAmericaandotherdevelopingregionsare

becomingnewforefrontsofChinasglobalreach.GeneralBantzCraddock,

formerheadoftheUSSouthernCommand,hassaidthatChinasinfluencein

LatinAmericaisanemergingdynamicthatcannotbeignored(Bachelet2005).

Withtheirincreasingeconomicanddiplomaticindependence,countriesinLatin

Americahavealsoexpandedtheirrelationswithoutsiders,includingChinaand

India.ManypeopleinLatinAmericalooktoChinaasaneconomicandpolitical

alternativetoUShegemony(Hakim2006).Inthecourseofglobalisation,China

andLatinAmericahavebecomeclosepartners.

Thisbilateralrelationshiphaswitnessedrapidgrowthintradevolume,but

alsoinculturalexchangesandpoliticalinteractionoverthepastdecade.The

bilateraltradevolumeincreasedfromjustUSD12.2billionin2000toUSD102

billionin2007(ChineseMinistryofCommerce2007).Attheregionallevel,

Chinahasbeeninvolvedinthemostimportantregionalinstitutionsaseitherfull

memberorobserver.Chinascontributiontoregionalinfrastructureandother

publicgoodsishighlyvaluedbyLatinAmericancountries.Chinaissuedapolicy

paperonLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanon16November2008,afterissuing

papersontheEUandAfrica(ChineseGovernment2008).Atthegloballevel,

ANewEraforChinaLatinAmericanRelations:MoreOpportunitiesthanChallenges 241  

bothsidesareworkingtogethertopromotereformofthecurrentinternational

systemandeffectivegovernanceonglobalissues.Therelationshipbetween

BrazilandChinahasbeenthemodelforSouthSouthcooperationandhas

increasingglobalimplications.

Asanewcomerandanemergingglobalplayer,Chinaalsofacesspecial

challengesin Latin America.Issuessuchastradecompetition,Taiwan,

development modelsand geopoliticalfactorscomplicate bilateralrelations

significantly.Howthesechallengesaredealtwith willbecrucialinthe

developmentoffutureSinoLatinAmericanrelations.

2.犆犺犻狀犪狊犔犪狋犻狀犔犲犪狆犉狅狉狑犪狉犱

Chinas30yearsofgrowthhavebeenheavilyreliantonforeigninvestments

andoverseasmarkets,whichhavehelpedittobecomeanactiveinternational

player.Motivatedprimarilybyitseconomicdevelopment,theeconomiclinkages

betweenChinaandLatinAmericahavebecomemuchstronger.Chinahas

improveditsrelationswithAfricaandLatinAmericagreatlysincetheendofthe

ColdWar.Whiletheserelationshavemainlyinvolvedeconomicactivities,a

comprehensiveengagementisdevelopingatvariouslevels.Itisfairtosaythat

SinoLatinAmericanrelationshaveenteredanewphase.

2.1!ComprehensiveBilateralCooperation

In2004,PresidentHuJintaooutlinedthreeobjectivesinthedevelopmentof

SinoLatinAmericanrelations:first,supportingeachotherpoliticallyand

buildinganallroundfriendship;second,complementingeachothereconomically

andbuildingamutuallybeneficial,winwinpartnershiponanewbasis;and

third,enhancingculturalexchangesandservingasamodelfordialoguebetween

differentcivilisations(Hu2004).WhatChinaispursuingisacomprehensive

relationshipwithLatinAmerica.

Inthepoliticalsphere,ChinaandmanyLatinAmericancountriesmaintain

closetiesandconsiderablepoliticaltrust.Therehavebeenunprecedentedand

intensivehighlevelofficialvisitsbyChinatoLatinAmericaoverthepast

decade.Regularcommunicationsbetweenparliamentswereestablishedbetween

ChinaandBrazil,aswellasbetweenChinaandChile.Suchpoliticalvisitshavenot

onlyenhancedbilateralpoliticaltrustbuthavealsopromotedeconomiccooperation.

ChinahasestablishedstrategicpartnershipswithBrazil,Argentina,Mexico,

VenezuelaandPeru.Allpartnerssharethevisionofamultipolarworldorder.

Amongthem,Brazilisaccordedspecialimportance:PresidentHucalledthe

bilateralrelationshiponeofglobalinfluencewhenhemetwithhiscounterpart

242   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

PresidentLuladuringtheG20LondonSummitinApril2009.Besidesthesebig

countries,Chinaalsovaluesitsrelationswithsmallerones,suchasCostaRica,

inalongtermperspective.

Intheeconomicarena,bilateralcooperationhasbeenwinwin.Chinahas

emergedasthesecondbiggesttradingpartnerofLatin Americaandthe

Caribbean.Inhis2004visittoLatinAmerica,PresidentHuJintaocommitted

ChinatoattainingUSD100billioninbilateraltradevolumeby2010:however,

thefigurewassurpassedasearlyas2007,whichshowsthegreatpotentialof

bilateraltrade(ZhouWenzhong2009).ChinasurpassedtheUSAasBrazils

largesttradepartnerin2009 (Xinhuanet2009).TheBilateralFreeTrade

Agreement(FTA)withChileisworkingwell,andsimilarFTAnegotiations

withCostaRicaandPeruaresettobeconcluded.Chinaisthemostfrequent

userofthePanamaCanalaftertheUSAandJapan.Chinasdirectinvestmentin

LatinAmericatotalledUSD24.8billionin2008 (Moxley2010).Chinas

investmentintheexplorationofBrazilsnewfounddeepseaoilfieldisamore

recentexampleofwinwincooperation.Financialcooperationhasalsogained

momentuminrecentyears.Againstthebackgroundofthecurrentinternational

financialcrisis,ChinasboomingeconomicrelationshipwithLatinAmericasendsouta

hopefulmessagetothecurrentlyunbalancedandvulnerableworldeconomy.

Intheculturalarena,bothsidesvaluethedevelopmentofpeopletopeople

links.Bilateraltourismandculturalexchangehavebeenpromotedbythe

Chinesegovernmentaspartofpublicdiplomacy.Chinahasdesignatedmorethan

16countriesintheregionasapproveddestinationsforChinesecitizenstotravel

astourists.ConfuciusInstitutesandlanguageandculturalinstituteshavebeen

establishedatselecteduniversitiesacrosstheregion.Learning Mandarinis

becomingincreasinglypopularinLatinAmerica,notleastforthebusiness

opportunitiesitbringswithit(Forero2006).Networksofinformalsummitsand

meetings,eitherinChinaorinLatinAmerica,havebeenestablishedtobring

opinionformerstogether(Kurlantzick2006).Chinasdevelopmentexperiences

andvisionsofpeacefuldevelopmentandaharmoniousworldhaveaverystrong

culturalandhistoricalbackground.Buttounderstandthem properly,an

adequateknowledgeofChinesecultureisrequired.Suchpersonallinkages,

includingbilateralexchangesbetweenacademiaandthinktanks,areplayinga

positiveroleindeepeningmutualunderstanding.

2.2!InstitutionalisingRegionalInvolvement

Withdeepeningandbroadeningcooperation,increasingimportanceisbeing

giventoregionalinstitutions.Institutionaliseddialoguethroughvariouschannels

ANewEraforChinaLatinAmericanRelations:MoreOpportunitiesthanChallenges 243  

hasbeenestablishedbetweenLatinAmericaandChina,whilesimilarbilateral

channelsbetweentheEUandLatinAmericaarelacking.Amongthemthemost

notableareChinasbecomingapermanentobserverattheOrganizationofAmerican

States(OAS)in2004andamemberoftheInterAmericanDevelopmentBank(IDB)in

2009.Inaddition,ChinaisanobserverattheLatinAmericanParliamentandhas

tieswiththeRioGroup,theAndeanCommunityandCaricom,aswellas

Mercosur.Obviously,strongsupportfromthemajorityofLatinAmerican

countriesisthekeytoChinasinvolvementintheseinstitutionalplatforms.

Chinaattachesconsiderableimportancetothisinstitutionalcooperation.

TheChineseleadershipseesjoiningmultilateralgroupsasawayofreducing

possibleapprehensionofChinaandalsoasaplatformforinstitutionalisedand

predictableinteractions.ChinabecamethefortyeighthmemberoftheInter

AmericanDevelopmentBank(IDB)in2009,thethirdfromEastAsia,following

JapanandSouthKorea.ZhouXiaochuan,governorofthePeoplesBankof

China,highly praisedtheIDBseffortstoreducepovertyand promote

developmentintheregionandsaidthattheIDBhasbecome“themostimportant

platform”forChinascollaborationwiththisregionwhenheparticipatedinthe

annualgovernorsassemblyoftheIDBheldinMedellinin2009(ZhouXiaochuan

2009).ChinasfinancialcommunityisreadytoexpandcooperationwithLatin

AmericafollowingChinasjoiningofIDB.ChinahascontributedUSD350

millionthroughtheIDBtofundinitiativestohelpLatinAmericancountriescope

withthecurrentglobaleconomicslowdown(IDB2009).

2.3!CooperationonaGlobalAgenda

ChinahighlyvaluesLatinAmericasoverallimportanceintheinternational

system.In1988,MrDengXiaopinghadtheforesighttostatethatthetwenty

firstcenturyshouldbethecenturyofboththePacificandLatinAmerica.Latin

AmericaenjoysamuchhigherstatusinChinasforeignstrategythanasaraw

materialssupplier,assomeobserversbelieve.ChinaseesLatinAmericaasan

importantpartnerindealing withglobalissuesandreformingthecurrent

internationalsystem.

Buildingaprosperousdomesticeconomyinaglobalisingworldisacommon

taskforbothChinaandLatinAmericancountries.Indoingso,bothsidesshould

seektomaketheestablishedinternationaleconomicsystemmorereasonableand

favourablefordevelopingcountries.Thecurrentworldrecessionhasmadeit

clearthateventheUSAisvulnerabletothelimitationsoftheinternational

financialsystem,while mostdevelopingcountriesaresurelyina weaker

position.LearninglessonsfromtheAsianfinancialcrisisin1997,mostLatin

244   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

Americaneconomieshaveaccumulatedsizeableforeignexchangereserves,

makingthemstrongerandsaferinthecurrentsituation.Evenso,amore

responsibleandaccountableUScurrencypolicyisnecessarytomaintainthevalue

oftheirforeignexchangereserves.Inthisconnection,ChinaandLatinAmerican

countriesshouldjoin handsto makethe currentinternationalfinancial

architecturegraduallymoreaccountable.

Institutionalcooperationisincreasingbetweenemergingpowers,including

ChinaanditsLatinAmericancounterparts.BrazilandChinaarekeymembersof

theemergingG/O51,BRICandtheG20.Mexico,amemberoftheNorth

AmericanFreeTradeAgreement(NAFTA)andtheOrganisationforEconomic

CooperationandDevelopment(OECD),playsanimportantroleincoordinating

relationsbetweentheG5andtheG8.Argentinaalsoplaysavisibleroleinthe

increasinglyimportantG20.Cooperationofthiskindcancultivatesharedvisions

ofafutureinternationalsystemandenhancemutualpoliticaltrustandcommon

interests.BothChinaandLatinAmericanemergingpowersneedtoenhance

cooperationindealingwithglobalissuessuchasclimatechange,energysecurity

andDoharoundnegotiations.TransregionalarrangementssuchasAPECandthe

ForumforEastAsiaLatinAmericaCooperation(FEALAC)alsohavetheir

function.ChinaalsoworksthroughUNpeacekeepingmissionstofacilitate

regionalstability,andbothChinaandBrazilhaveamajorsayinimplementing

UNtasksinHaiti.

3.犆犺犪犾犾犲狀犵犲狊犻狀犆狌狉狉犲狀狋犛犻狀狅犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊

Theleapforwardinthisrelationshipdoesnotmeanthattheroadwillalways

besmooth.Halfthecountrieswhichhave“diplomatic”relationswithTaiwanare

locatedinLatinAmerica.Thewinwinstrategymustalsosurvivethetestof

tradedeficitsandeconomiccompetition.AsanewcomerinLatin America

comparedtotheWesterncountries,Chinamustpayattentiontotheconcernsof

theUSAandtheEU,butalsoavoidthemistakesthattheUSAandtheEUhave

made.Trade competition,the Taiwan issue,development models and

geopoliticalfactorsareissueswhichcouldhaveasignificantinfluenceonfuture

SinoLatinAmericanrelations.

3.1!SharedGainsandAsymmetricHopes

Theboomingeconomiccooperationhasgeneratedsharedandmutualgains

forChinaandLatinAmerica.Atthesametime,reactionsdifferacrossLatin

Americaandthereareevenhigherexpectationsinsomecountries.Feelingswith

regardtoChinasgrowingpresenceintheregionaremixed.WhilemostSouth

ANewEraforChinaLatinAmericanRelations:MoreOpportunitiesthanChallenges 245  

AmericancountriesseeChinaasa majorpotentialpartnerfornewtradeand

investments,MexicoandmostoftheCentralAmericanandCaribbeancountriessee

Chinamoreasacompetitor,enteringtheUSmarketwithsimilarlabourintensive

products.BlamefortheprivatesectorspoorperformanceinsomeLatinAmerican

countriesoftenfallsonthegrowingpresenceofChinainworldmarkets(Lederman,

OlarregaandPerry2009).SomethoughtthatbygrantingChinafreemarketstatus

theywouldautomaticallygainmoretradeandinvestments(Wu2007).Furthermore,

ChinahasoftenencounteredsevereantidumpingmeasuresinsomeLatinAmerican

countrieswhichofferedChinafreemarketstatus.Thesedifficultiessuggestthatboth

sidesfacetheurgenttaskofthinkingofmoreeffectivewaysofmaintainingthe

momentumofbilateraleconomiccooperation.

Despitecompetitivepressures,Chinasrapidgrowthshouldbeseenasan

opportunity,whichhasactuallybeenhelpingregionaleconomies,notonly

becauseoftherapidgrowthinpurchasingpower,butalsobecauseofthe

growingforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)andfinancialflows.Inthepastdecade,

SouthAmericancountrieswithacomparativeadvantageincommoditieshave

benefitedalotfromChinasgrowingdemandforoilandothercommodities.

LatinAmericarankssecondasarecipientofChineseFDI,whichhasgonemainly

intoenergy,commoditiesandinfrastructure.Ithasgreatpotentialforexpansion

toothersectors,suchasmanufacturing,however.Innovationcooperationin

scienceandtechnologyhasbeenheavilypromoted—forexample,thecooperation

betweenChinaandBrazilonsatelliteprojects.Chinaspotentialforbecomingan

importantsourceoffinancingforLatinAmericaisconsiderable.Argentinahas

alreadysignedacurrencyswapdealtotallingaboutRMB70billionwithChinain

April2009,makingitthebiggestfinancialdealinbothChineseandLatin

Americanhistory(Turner2009).Withitssizableforeigncurrencyreservesand

increasinglyactiveprivatesector,Chinawillbeoneofthetopcreditornations

withglobalreach.AfavourableinvestmentclimateinLatinAmericawillbevery

helpfulinattractingFDIfromChina.

ChinaspresenceinLatinAmericatosomeextentputspressureonthe

regionsspecialisationpatterns,shiftingtowardhighernaturalresourceand

knowledgeintensiveactivitiesandproducts (Lederman,OlarregaandPerry

2009).Nationsmustfurtherexploretheircompetitiveadvantagesinahighly

segmentedglobalmarket.ItisthereforenaturalforLatinAmericancountries

withrichresourcestofocusonnaturalresourcerelatedindustry.However,

relyingonasingleindustrywillinevitablyleadtovulnerabilityinthefuture.

JustasChinasplentifullaboursupply,nowmainlydevotedtomanufacturing,

couldbeusedtobuildaknowledgeeconomyinthefuture,LatinAmerican

246   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

countriescanimprovetheirnaturalresourcesector,whilestrengtheningknow

howandinnovation.IfLatinAmericancountriescandoso,ChinaandLatin

Americacanavoidcompetitioninmanufacturingindustrieswhilebeingpartners

inbuildingaknowledgeeconomy.Ifwelookfurtherintothefuture,strong

ChinaLatinAmericaneconomicrelationswillbeapositivefactorinahealthyand

balancedinternationaleconomicsystem.

3.2!TheTaiwanIssue

TaiwanisasensitiveissueincurrentandfutureSinoLatin American

relations.Firstofall,mostcountriesinLatinAmericaadheretoa“OneChina

policy”,whichisthemainstream policystance.Taiwaninthepasttook

advantageof “chequebook diplomacy”,FTA negotiations andloansto

consolidate“diplomaticrelations”withtheCaribbean,CentralAmericaand

Paraguay,respectively.Theabsenceofformaldiplomaticrelationswiththese

countriestosomeextentpreventsChinafrom developingacomprehensive

regionalrelationship.Recently,thetwosidesdividedbytheTaiwanStrait

achievedacommonpolicyframeworkofpeacefuldevelopment,andculturaland

economicintegrationarebeingdevelopedrapidly.Withinthepolicyframework

ofpeacefuldevelopmentforcrossStraitrelations,Beijing willcontinueto

developnormalcommercialandculturalrelationswiththosecountrieswithwhich

itdoesnothavediplomaticrelations.ConsideringtheneedsofTaiwans

economicdevelopmentandthepracticalinterestsofTaiwanscompatriots,the

Chinesegovernment willnotobjecttothesecountries maintaining non

governmentalculturalandeconomictieswithTaiwan.

Againstthisbackground,Taiwansleaderscameupwiththeideaofa

diplomatictruce,towhichthemainlanddidnotreactdirectly,althoughthe

strivingfordiplomaticrelationsin Latin Americaclearlydecreased.Itis

thereforefairtosaythatthepolicyadjustmenthasdeepenedeconomicintegration

acrosstheTaiwanStraitandhasmadecompetitionlessintensiveinLatin

America.Meanwhile,Chinasbasicstanceon Taiwan willneverchange,

regardlessofthesocalleddiplomatictruce.Doublerecognitionofbothsides

acrosstheTaiwanStraitisnotanacceptableoptiontoChina.TheChinese

governmentdeclaredin2008thatChinais“willingtoestablishanddevelopstate

tostaterelationswiththecountriesinLatinAmericaonthebasisoftheOne

Chinaprinciple”initsfirstpolicypaperonLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

(ChineseGovernment2008).

Assomeresearchershaveobserved,thefactthatamajorityofthecountries

thatstillrecogniseTaiwanarelocatedintheAmericasreflectsthesphereof

ANewEraforChinaLatinAmericanRelations:MoreOpportunitiesthanChallenges 247  

influenceoftheUnitedStates(Tokatlian2008).Withthedevelopmentof

ChinaseconomyandcrossStraitrelations,however,theUSinfluenceonthe

Taiwanissueisdeclining.ToseizetheopportunityofChinasdynamicgrowth

andadapttotherisinginternationalinfluenceofChina,themotivationto

establishformalrelationswithChinaisgrowingintheregion.CostaRica,an

influentialsubregionalcountry,inJune2007becamethefirstCentralAmerican

nationinthepostColdWareratoswitchitsdiplomaticrecognitionfromTaiwan

tomainlandChina.AndevenLatinAmericanstatesthatrecogniseTaiwan

frequentlyadheretothecommonLatinAmericanvotingstanceintheUN

GeneralAssembly.

3.3!TheChineseDevelopmentModelandItsImplications

SincetheWashingtonConsensusenteredroughseasduringtheinternational

financialcrisisfrom2008to2009,therehavebeengrowingconcernsaboutthe

emergingcompetitionbetweendevelopmentmodelsinLatin America.The

WashingtonConsensus,theBeijingConsensusandtheSantiagoConsensusare

probablythemostinfluentialdevelopmentmodelsinLatinAmericacurrently.

TheturntothecentreortheleftofLatinAmericanpoliticsoverthepast

decadeisaremarkablepoliticaldevelopment.Itisalsoanimportantpartofthe

backgroundforunderstandingthedevelopment modeldiscussionin Latin

America.Inthe1990s,mostcountriesintheregionadoptedtheWashington

Consensusformulaasafreemarketrecipeforrestructuringtheircrisishit

economies,whichhelpedthemtoimproveefficiency,whileexacerbatingmany

socialproblems,suchaspoverty,inequalityandpublicsecurity.Nearly37per

centofthepopulationoftheregionstilllivesinpoverty,anditremainsoneof

themostunequalintheworldintermsofwealthandincome.Thewidelycited

“turntotheleft”inLatinAmericanelectionsin20052007reflectedtheeconomic

realitiesandconcernsoftheaveragevoter(ONeil2008).Citizensneednotonly

democracytoachievetheirpoliticalrights,butalsoastrongandeffective

governmenttoaddresssocialissues,includingunemployment,publicsafety,

educationandqualityoflifeforthemajorityofcitizens.

Inthesecircumstances,theparticipantsintheWorldEconomicForumon

LatinAmericain2007reemphasisedandshapedtheSantiagoConsensus,

introducedin1998.Theyagreedonfiveprioritiesfortheregion,aimedat

achievingandsustaininghigherproductivityandgrowthwithequity:education,

theenvironment,R&Dinvestment,efficienttaxationandinfrastructure.These

prioritiesareintendedtoimproveincomedistributionaseconomiesgrowandto

takefulladvantageoftheopportunitiesandinnovationpotentialaffordedbythe

248   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

globalisationoftrade,culturalandfinancialflows.Taketheexampleof

infrastructure.IfLatinAmericaistosecureitsplaceintheglobalsupplychain

andtoimproveregionalenergysecurity,itmustinvestinupgradingits

infrastructure.TheSantiagoConsensusrepresentsanewpolicyparadigmshiftin

theregion.ChileisthebestexampleoftheSantiagoConsensussofar:ithas

achievedthehighestpercapitaincomegrowthintheregion.

WhileLatinAmericahasachievedrapideconomicgrowthinrecentyears,it

hasstillbeenmuchslowerthanotherregions,especiallyAsia,intermsofGDP

growthrate.Inthiscontext,ChinahasbeenamodelforLatinAmerican

countriestodiscuss.Whilethesocalled“BeijingConsensus”isanattemptto

sumupChinasgrowthexperience,Chinastillhasnoofficialdescriptionofwhat

theBeijingConsensusis.AccordingtoChinasowndevelopmentexperience,it

wouldbewrongtofollowthesamepaththatothershavetaken without

consideringacountrysownsituation.Inreality,bothsideshavebeenworking

hardtolearnfromeachothersdevelopmentexperience.AlargepartofChinese

developmentstudiesfocusedonLatinAmericasdevelopmentexperience,includingits

economictakeoff,the“lostdecade”,neoliberalreformandthecurrentleftturn(Xu

andZhang2006).SomeLatinAmericancountriesarealsoveryinterestedinChinas

successfuldevelopmentstory.Suchmutuallearningcandeepenourunderstandingof

developmentandconsolidatediversedevelopmentmodels.

ItshouldbenotedthateventheleftleaninggovernmentsinLatinAmerica

aredividedintotwogroups,“rightleft”and“wrongleft”,asanumberofUS

scholarshaveobserved(Castaneda2006).Thiscolourfulleftwingpoliticswarns

usnottotrytosimplifytheworldtoomuch.AstheObamaadministrationhas

foundout,theroleofgovernmentbecomesenlargedindealingwitheconomic

recession.TheWorldBanksleadershavealsoarguedthattheWashington

ConsensusshouldbefollowedbytheSantiagoConsensus(WorldBank1999).In

dealingwiththechallengeofglobalisation,therewillbemoreconsensusor

convergenceamongthesethreemodelsinthelongrun.

3.4!GeopoliticalThinkingversustheLogicofGlobalisation

Lastbutnotleast,geopoliticalfactorsconferatrilateralaspectonSino

LatinAmericanrelations.WhetherChinaisathreatinAmericasbackyardor

LatinAmericahasbecomeChinasbackyardarequestionsbeingdiscussedbyUS

scholarsandreflectastrong geopoliticalapproachtocurrentSinoLatin

Americanrelations.CloserSinoLatinAmericantieshaveresultedinmixed

reactionsinUSpolicycircles.MostanalystsappeartoagreethatChinas

primaryinterestintheregionistogaingreateraccesstoneededresourcesand

ANewEraforChinaLatinAmericanRelations:MoreOpportunitiesthanChallenges 249  

marketsbymeansoftradeandinvestment.TheyhaveconfidenceinAmericas

economicandgeographicaladvantageoverChina.Meanwhile,someanalysts

arguethatChinasinvolvementintheregioncouldposeafuturethreattoUS

influence.TheyevenarguethatsomeLatinAmericancountrieslooktoChinaas

aneconomicandpoliticalalternativetothe WashingtonConsensusandUS

hegemony.Chinastiestothosecountriesruledbyleftleaningpoliticianswith

anantiAmericancharacterhavealsobeencriticised.ThesemixedUSreactions

towardChinaspresenceinLatinAmericareflectthecompetingperspectivesof

globalisationandgeopolitics.

Chinesescholarshavealsoarguedthatitisnecessarytoexplainandclarify

byallmeansthatChinawillnotharmthirdpartyinterestsandwilllookonthe

confrontationwiththeU.S.whenitentersLatinAmerica(ZhuandLiu2008).

BecauseofChinaslowprofilediplomacy,neutralpoliticalpositionandregular

dialogueswiththeUSAonLatinAmericanaffairs,Washingtoniswatchfulbut

notalarmed(Hakim2006).TheUSAisconfidentthatitwillcontinuetobethe

longtermpartnerofpreferencefortheregion.

ToassesstrilateralrelationsbetweentheUSA,ChinaandLatinAmericain

apositivelight,weneedtoclarifywhattheircommoninterestsare.Forthe

USA,LatinAmericaisthelargestforeignsupplierofoil,astrongpartnerin

developingalternativefuelsandoneofthefastestgrowingtradingpartners.Ifit

istoproperlyaddressitsownconcerns,includingillegalmigrationanddrug

trafficking,the USA needstohelptheregiontodealwithpovertyand

inequality,publicsecurity,migrationandenergysecurity.China,ontheother

hand,needsaccesstoregionalenergyand markets,andtoensurethe

cooperationoftheregioninreformingthecurrentinternationalsystem.Latin

Americaneedsinvestment,tradeandtechnologytomeetthechallengesof

developmentandglobalisation.Basedontheseindividualinterests,anumberof

sharedinterestscanbederived.Chinasinvestmentsintheenergysectorcan

increasetheenergysupplytoall,stabiliseworldenergypricesandboostregional

development.Andasalreadymentioned,aprosperousLatinAmericawillalso

sendoutagoodmessagefortheglobaleconomy,whichbenefitsall.

ThisissimilartothesituationinAfrica,whereboomingChinaAfrica

relationshaveencouragedtheEUtoimproveitsrelationswithAfrica.Acloser

ChinaLatinAmericarelationshipwillalsopersuadetheUSAtopay more

attentiontotheregionsneedssinceitsfocushasshiftedtootherregionssince

September11.AcomprehensiveapproachonthepartofboththeUSAandthe

EUtothesetwodevelopingregionswillalsohelptodevelopChinasforeign

policy.TheChinesegovernmentattachesimportancetolocaljobcreationand

250   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

environmentalprotection.Inordertominimisemutualsuspicionsandenhance

mutualcooperation, moreinclusive trilateral dialogue forms should be

established.Leadershipmatters.Inthelongrun,howChinausesitsinfluence

andhowtheUSAandtheEUseeChinasincreasingroleinLatinAmericawill

haveimplicationsforthefuturedirectionoftheinternationalsystem.

4.犆狅狀犮犾狌狊犻狅狀

BothChinaandLatinAmericarepresentakeyfocusoftheirrespective

foreignpolicies.Bothsidesareengagingwiththeotherinacomprehensiveway

andatvariouslevels.Economiccooperationhasgreatpotentialnotonlyintrade

butalsoininvestmentandfinance.ChineseinvestmentinLatinAmericacould

helptoupgradethelattersindustryacrosstheboardandminimisethetrade

deficitinLatinAmerica.Incomparisontotraditionalculturalandmigrationties

betweentheEU,theUSAandLatinAmerica,Chinasculturallinkageswith

LatinAmericaareveryweak.Morepublicdiplomacy,culturalexchangesand

educationalcooperationareneeded.Bothsidesshouldencouragetheircitizensto

gettoknowoneanotherbetterinordertoachievesharedgainsandrealise

symmetricalratherthanasymmetricalhopes(Dominguez2006).Mutualpolitical

trustandculturalunderstandingcouldhelptodevelopcooperationopportunities

andtoimproveeconomiccooperation.

ItisnotablethatSinoLatinAmericanrelationshavereachedtheregional

andgloballevel,beyondthebilateraldimension.犆犺犻狀犪狊狆狅犾犻犮狔狆犪狆犲狉狅狀犔犪狋犻狀

犃犿犲狉犻犮犪犪狀犱狋犺犲犆犪狉犻犫犫犲犪狀furtherclarifiesthegoalsofChinaspolicytowards

theregionandoutlinesguidingprinciplesforfuturecooperation.Itmarksan

importantmilestoneinSinoLatinAmericanrelationsbecauseittreatsLatin

Americaasawholeandcoversmanyglobalissues.Chinaaimstoparticipatein

dynamicregionalintegration by providing public goodsthrough regional

institutions,whichcanpromoteChinassoftpowerintheregionandmake

bilateralrelationsmoresustainable.Globalissuessuchascombatingclimate

change,disasterreduction,povertyalleviationandnontraditionalsecurityissues

wereincludedinthepolicypaper,whichmeansthatLatinAmericancountries

willbetreatedasimportantpartnersindealingwithglobalchallenges.As

emergingeconomies,Mexico,Argentina,BrazilandChinashouldbecomemoreactive

andcooperativeinshapingamorefavourableworldfordevelopingcountries.

Obviously,ChinasexpandingpresenceinLatinAmericawillaffectthird

partyintereststosomeextent.Whatismostimportant,however,istoregard

trilateralrelationsaswinwinratherthanaszerosum.Chinasinvolvementin

theregionsinstitutionalnetworkswillmakeitsbehaviourmorepredictableand

ANewEraforChinaLatinAmericanRelations:MoreOpportunitiesthanChallenges 251  

acceptable.ChinasparticipationinregionalinstitutionsledbytheUSAwillalso

helpittoreduceUSsuspicions.Chinaspoliticallyneutralpositionandeconomic

focusinitsengagement with Latin America willnotthreaten regional

democracy,prosperityorintegrity.Inaddition,Chinaspositiveengagement

withLatinAmericawillpromoteregionalprosperityandsocialcohesion,which

willnotonlybenefittheregionbutalsoservetheregionalinterestsoftheUSA

andtheEU.

Notes

1.G/O5istheabbreviationofthesocalled“outreach5”countries,namelyChina,Brazil,

India,SouthAfricaandMexico.Leadersfromthesefivecountrieshaveregularlybeen

invitedbyG8leaderstoengageindialogueduringG8summitsinrecentyears.

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! 253  

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉4

犜犺犲犈犝,犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪犪狀犱犆犺犻狀犪牶犌犲狅犿犲狋狉犻犮犪犾

犘犪狋狋犲狉狀狊犻狀犆狌狉狉犲狀狋犪狀犱犉狌狋狌狉犲犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊

9*":% ;#"< 7%'(3=%.

1.犐狀狋狉狅犱狌犮狋犻狅狀

Thedebateonwhattheworldorderwilllooklikeinthenotsodistant

futureisnotonlypertinent,butalsourgent.Globalgovernanceandfuture

cooperationschemesdependonwhatkindofstructuretheinternationalsystem

willtakeaftertheeconomiccrisistriggeredbythecollapseofLehmanBrothers.

However,atthispointitisnoteasytopredicteither whatshapethe

internationalorderwillassumeorwhattypeofcooperationschemeswillbebest

suitedfortheworldtocomeandtheinterestsofthedifferentplayers.Despite

thisinabilitytomakeaccuratepredictions,certainfeaturescanalreadybe

distinguishedthroughthefoginwhichweareendingthefirstdecadeofthe

twentyfirstcentury.

Themainpurposeofthischapteristoreflectonthecurrentissuesand

futurecooperation opportunities betweenthreeimportantplayersin the

internationalcommunity:theEuropeanUnion(EU),LatinAmericaandChina.

Eachoftheseplayersseemstobeinadifferentpositiontofacethechallengesof

theworldorderthatisgraduallytakingshape.Potentialcooperationschemes

willdependonhoweachplayerrespondstothesechallenges,accordingto

countryspecificcharacteristics.Ifapredictionmustbemade,Chinawillbeina

muchbettershapetoparticipatefullyinthe “new worldorder”thanthe

EuropeanUnionand,therefore,LatinAmericashouldbeplanningitsfuture

alliancesrightnow.

2.犜犺犲犐狀狋犲狉狀犪狋犻狅狀犪犾犛狔狊狋犲犿牶犃犾狋犲狉犲犱犛狋犪狋犲狊

Atthispoint,itishardtospeakwithmuchcertaintyaboutthestateofany

254   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

foreignpolicyorofanybilateral,biregionalormultilateralrelationship.The

problemliesinthefactthattheinternationalsystemisinfluxor,ifImaysay

so,inan“alteredstate”,inwhichnothingthatweknewbeforeseemstohold

trueanylonger,atleastnotwithoutconsiderablemodification.

However,thereareatleastsomefactsthatwecanbesureof:

(1)Chinahasbecomeamajorworldpower,notonlybecauseofits

outstandingeconomic growthin recentyears,butalso because ofthe

attractivenessofitsdevelopmentmodel.

(2)Europehaslostpartofitssoftpowerduetoenlargementandthe

constitutionaldebacle.IthascertainlylostitsascendancyoverLatinAmerica,

givenitsinabilitytoactonissuesofparticularconcernintheregion,its

obstinateadherencetosocalledsharedprinciplesandvaluesanditsadhoc

solutionswhenpushcomestoshove,asseeninthelatestchangeofpositionvis

visthe pending agreements with the Andean Community members.

Furthermore,despitebeingthemostsuccessfulintegrationschemeintheworld,

thecurrenteconomiccrisisiscertainlyputtingallEUinstitutionsunderstrain,

evenitscoreprincipleofsolidarity,asshownbythediscussionssurroundingthe

Greekdebacle.

(3)LatinAmericahasbecomemorediverseandismovingfartherand

fartherawayfromaunifiedpositionorvoiceoninternationalaffairs,despitethe

recentattemptstocreateaLatinAmericancommunity.Atthesametime,ithas

resumedapreexistingroleasaproducerofrawmaterials,whichhasgivenita

temporaryandsomewhatartificialrelevanceintodaysworld,includingits

apparentresilienceduringthecurrenteconomiccrisis.Nonetheless,the

challengesfacingtheregionarestillmanyanddiverse.

(4)AnyreflectiononrelationsbetweentheEU,LatinAmericaandChina

cannotexcludethe“elephantintheroom”,namelytheUnitedStates.Despiteits

apparentlossofsteamanditsdifficultiesduringthecurrentcrisis,theUSAis

stillaworldpowerthatwillinfluencetheformationofanytypeofnewworld

order.Therefore,perhapsitwouldbebettertotalknotofatrianglebutofa

rhomboidthatincludestheUSA.

(5)Theworldisbecomingmultipolar.However,thismeansnotonlythat

powerwillbedistributedmoreevenlyamongstates,butalsothatotheractors

mustbeconsideredintheequation.Inthatsense,whateverpredictionsaremade

now,itwillbenecessarytotakeintoconsiderationthefactorofpower

fragmentationandredistributionamongdifferentactors,includingstates,

marketsandother,morediffuseplayers,suchasratingagencies,whichhave

demonstratedtheircapacitytomakeorbreakstates.

TheEU,LatinAmericaandChina:GeometricalPatternsinCurrentandFutureRelations 255  

(6)Lastbutnotleast,theeconomiccrisisweareinthemiddleofwill

certainlyhaveanimpactonallactorsandwillredefinemanyoftheserelationsin

termsofprioritiesandscopeofaction.Atpresent,theneedforcooperationis

obvious.However,itdoesnotseemtobetakingplaceasmighthavebeen

expected,regardlessoftherecentlyacquiredprofileoftheG20anditspotential

tobecomethebasisofanewinternationalfinancialarchitecture.Upuntilnow,

boththeEUandtheUSAseemtohavebeenhardesthitbythecrisisandthat

hasbeggedthequestionoftheirabilitytoremainatthehelmoftheinternational

order.However,thereisstillhope.JeanMonnet,thefatheroftheEuropean

integrationprocess,oncesaidthatcrisescanmakepeopledowhattheywould

notdootherwise.Canthatbethecasethistimearound?

3.犉狅狌狉犐犿狆狅狉狋犪狀狋犃犮狋狅狉狊犻狀狋犺犲犐狀狋犲狉狀犪狋犻狅狀犪犾犛狔狊狋犲犿

3.1!TheEuropeanUnion:ATroubledProcessandanInternationalActorintheMaking

  TheEuropeanUnionhaschangeddramaticallyinrecentyears,notonly

becauseofitsenlargementtotheeast,whichhascertainlyhadaneffectonits

foreignpolicypriorities,butalsobecauseofthetroublesexperiencedbythe

integrationprocessitselfinthewakeoftheconstitutionaldebacleandthe

traumaticapprovaloftheLisbonTreaty.Today,theseverityoftheeconomic

crisisisprovingtobeatoughtestforthemostadvancedintegrationschemein

theworld.Despitetheadvancesineconomicintegration,theGreekdebaclehas

pushedtheEUontotheropes,revealingthatthisimportanteconomicactorstill

hasalongwaytogointermsofeconomicgovernanceandthatevenitsmost

basicprinciplesaremootwhenshortterminterestsareatstake.Itishardto

imaginehowtheinnovationsoftheLisbonTreatywithregardtoforeignpolicy

willbeabletoovercomethesechallengesbythemselvesandtomaketheEUa

strongandcoherentinternationalactor.

Inrecentyears,astheworldunderwentaperiodofrecalcitrantrealismin

internationalaffairspromotedbytheBushadministration,Europewasunableto

takeadvantageofthesituationtopositionitself,notasanalternativebutasa

wiservoicethatcouldguidethereformofinternationalinstitutions.TheUnions

ownissuesvisvisitsinternationalrelationspreventitfrombeingtheworld

poweritshouldbe.

Evenworse,theEUislosinggroundontheinternationalstage.Regardless

ofitsbeingthelargestmarketintheworld,itisbeingsaidmoreandmore

frequentlythatEuropewillbealessimportantplayerintheworldtocome,

256   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

especiallygivenitsincapacitytoactasasingleinternationalactorandits

diversityandcomplexity.Otherspointtowardstheimminentarrivalofanew

bipolarsystem,inwhichthemainactorswillbeChinaandtheUSA,tothe

exclusionoftheEU.

Seenfromtheoutside,theUnionisaverycomplexactorthatfewunderstand.

Thereisapermanentfeelingthatnooneisinchargeandif,atanygivenpoint,

someonedoesseemtobeincharge,therearecriesonallsidesthatitshouldhave

beensomeoneelse,ashappenedwiththeappointmentofMrVanRompuyas

PresidentinNovember2009.ThesamecanbesaidofBaronessAshton.Inthat

sense,theEuropeanmodelseemstobetoocomplexandtootaxingforoutside

observers.

Furthermore,Europehasnotyetlostitsimageasapaternalisticactorin

termsofitscooperationschemes.Itsselfassignedroleasa“normativepower”is

noteasytoselltolessdevelopedpartners,whohavetheconstantfeelingofbeing

judgedonthebasisofunfairorunattainablestandards.This,intheend,leads

totheperceptionthattheUnionclearlyhasdoublestandards.Evenifthisisnot

thecase,itsforeignpolicy,basedonprinciplesandvalues,lackscredibility.

3.2!LatinAmerica:ARegioninSearchofItself

LatinAmericahasundergoneanenormoustransformationinthepastfew

years.Politically,thecontinentisbarelyrecognisable.TheswitchtotheLeft—

ortomanyLefts—hasperplexedmanyobservers.Nonetheless,theLeftdoes

notgovernallofLatinAmerica,aswecanseeinthecasesofMexicoand

Colombia.

Theissuesthataffecttheregionarediverse.Drugtraffickingandthe

associatedeffectsoforganisedcrimeinMexico,Colombiaandsomepartsofthe

CaribbeancanscarcelybecategorisedtogetherwithenergyplansinBrazilor

politicalturmoilinArgentina.Ifoneissueiscommontothewholeregion,itis

migration.Theeffectsoftheveritablehaemorrhagingofpopulationinrecent

decadesareyettobeseen,butwillcertainlyimposeacostonthefuture

developmentoftheregion.

Intermsofvalues,LatinAmericahasalsosufferedmanychanges.The

regionislettingslidemanyformervalues,buthasadoptedmanynewonesfrom

theoutsideworld.Thatiscertainlythecasewithregardtotheconfigurationof

itssocietiesandtheinfluenceofmigration,forexample,ontraditionalwaysof

life.However,anoteofcautionisinorder:thesocalled“Americanisation”of

valuesinLatinAmericavariesdependingonthecountryandtheregion.Ifwe

lookattheAndeancountries,“Europeanisation”mightwellbeintheworks

TheEU,LatinAmericaandChina:GeometricalPatternsinCurrentandFutureRelations 257  

giventheintensemigratoryflowsbetweenthetworegionsinthepastdecade.

Nonetheless,“LatinAmerica”remainsaconceptualshortcutandapolitical

tool,giventhatmostLatinAmericancountriesontheirownwouldhaveno

significanceinanalteredinternationalsystem.However,theneedtorecurtothe

globalconceptofLatinAmericamisleadspartnersandgivesthewrongideato

outsideobservers.

Asalreadynoted,thingsinLatinAmericahavechanged,notallofthemfor

thebetter.Inthatsense,itisunderstandablethatsomeofourpartners,

specificallytheEuropean Union,seem permanentlydisappointed withthe

regionsinequalityindicators,forexample.Theregionwentfrombeingthe

posterchildofWesternpoliciestobeingthechildleftbehind,especiallyinthe

wakeoftheAsianboom.Politically,althoughmanypollsseemtoconfirmthat

democracyishealthyinLatinAmerica,thetruthisthatthisishardlythecasein

mostcountries.Traditionalpartysystemsaregraduallydeterioratingand

democraticgovernmentsarelessabletosolvethemainproblemsaffectingtheir

populations.Thereturnofpopulismorneopopulism,whichisastyle,nota

formofgovernment,hassettheregionbackanumberofdecades.

Thesamehashappenedwithregardtotheraw materialsboominthe

internationaleconomy.LatinAmerica,whichseemedtohavemovedfaraway

fromwhattheauthorsofthedependencytheorylamenteddecadesago,has

returnedtoitsroleofcommodityprovider.Thiswouldnotbeaproblemifit

werenotfortheartificialgrowthprovokedbythesaleoftheserawmaterialsand

theconsequencesofsuchgrowthforthepoliticalenvironment.Venezuelaisa

caseinpoint.

Despiteallthesechallengingissues,thereisstillhopeinLatinAmerica.

Brazilhasdefinitelybecomethenew posterchildfortheregionandits

aspirationstorisefromthestatusofregionalpowertothatofworldpowermust

betakenintoaccountinanyfuturecooperationschemes.ThroughtheUnionof

SouthAmericanNations(UNASUR),butalsothroughSouthSouthcooperation

schemes,Brazilisstartingtopositionitselfasapowerfulandinfluentialactor,

notonlyinLatinAmerica,butworldwide.AsamemberoftheG5,theG20and

theBRICs,Brazilwillcertainlyhavearoletoplayintheformationofthecoming

worldorder.

3.3!China:TheUnknownActorwithaDifferentVisionandthePowertoProduceChange

  Inthepastfewyears,Chinahasmadeoverwhelmingprogressonthe

internationalscene.Wenowfaceamodern,wealthyandstrongChinathatis

258   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

eonsawayfromtheformerimageofthisAsiancountry.Chinahaspresented

itselfasaverydifferentinternationalactor.Inmanyways,itdoesnotseemto

havetheunavoidableneedtheEuropeanshavetosugarcoatitspoliciesand

interests.JustasEuropeonceexporteditsownsystemofinternationalrelations

amongstatestotherestoftheworld,itseemsthatitisnowtheturnofAsiato

reconfiguretheinternationalsystem.Theconditionswithintheinternational

systemarechanginginfavouroflargecountrieswithstrongstates,andChinais

definitelyplayinganimportantroleinthisprocess.

AnimportantcharacteristicofmanyAsiancountriesisthattheirgovernmentsare

willingtointerveneextensivelyintheinternationaleconomytoachievepoliticalgoals

thatdirectlyservetheirownstrategicinterests.Asthesecountries,ledbyChina,

emergeaspowerfulplayersinthesystem,theyarechangingtherulesofthe

game.Smallercountriesandcountrieswithopeneconomieshavemoredifficulty

beingheard.TheascentofthelargeAsiancountries,therefore,hasaccelerated,

asEuropeancountriesloseinfluence.Europecanonlykeepupwiththese

changesifitdevelopsacoherentstrategythatintegratespoliticalandeconomic

goalsinpoliciesdirectedtowardsthenewemergingpowers.

Chinaseconomicinfluenceisglobal,somethingthatisevidentinmany

fields,includingtradeandfinancialrelations.Developingand developed

countriesalikebenefitfromtheascentofChina,whetheritisintermsofmarket

access,theavailabilityofcheaplabour,ChineseimportsorChineseinvestments

andcapital.

Europeangovernmentsalsouseeconomicmeanstoachievepoliticalgoals,

forexample,throughtradeandaidprogrammes,regardlessofwhethertheyare

bilateralormultilateral.ThemaindifferenceisthatEuropeansdepend,overall,

ontheirestablishedpositionwithininternationalinstitutions,insteadofusing

theirinternationaleconomicrelationsastoolstogaininfluence.Moreover,the

potentialof Western governmentsto practiceeconomicrealism is more

restricted,giventhattheirstatesinterferemuchlessinthedomesticeconomy

thanisthecaseinAsia.Thus,whentheEuropeansuseeconomicmeansto

achievepoliticalgoals,theytypicallyseektoachieveanormativechangeina

thirdcountry.Byemphasisingtheirattractivenessintermsofculture,political

idealsandpublicpolicies,theyseek,forexample,toadvancetheirpolitical

interestsandideals,includingdemocratisation,thepromotionofrespectfor

humanrightsandgoodgovernance.

ThepoliticalgoalsofAsiancountriesforeignpoliciestendtobemore

specificandmoredirectlyrelatedtotheirsecurityandeconomicinterests.In

consequence,atleastintheshortandmediumterms,theEuropeanstrategy

TheEU,LatinAmericaandChina:GeometricalPatternsinCurrentandFutureRelations 259  

cannotcomparewithorbeacounterweighttothatofAsia.

ThesechangesandEuropesrelativelossofpowerarefeltstronglyinLatin

America,wheretherearealsoindividualactorspursuingstrategiesthataremore

similartothoseofAsiathantothoseofEuropeintermsoftheirsearchforpower

andhegemony,firstregionalandthenglobal,asmightbethecasewithregard

toBrazilorVenezuela.Inthesecircumstances,LatinAmericaisalsolookingfor

aplaceinthenewinternationalsystemandistakingadvantageofsomeofthe

newrulesofthegamebeingputforwardbyAsia.

3.4!TheElephantintheRoom:TheUSA

ItbecamecustomarytodismisstheUSAasapartnerothercountriescould

talktoduringtheBushera.NowweareatthebeginningofanewepochinUS

foreignpolicy.PresidentObamasfirstvisitstoEuropeandLatinAmericahave,

ifnothingelse,changedthetoneoftheseveryimportantrelations,evenif,in

retrospect,theydidnotproducefundamentalchangesintermsoftheimportance

ofthesepartnersfortheUSA.Likewise,USlinkswithChina,giventhatitis

dependentonChinesecredit,areoftheutmostimportance.

TheObamaAdministrationwillprobablycontinuetoconcentrateondomestic

politics.Certainly,theeconomiccrisishasforcedhisgovernmenttofocusonthe

domesticagenda,beforereachingouttooldornewinternationalpartners.

Nonetheless,itcanbesaidthatUSrelationsarenotparticularlysmootheither

withtheEUorwithLatinAmerica,anddefinitelynotwithChina.Despitethis,

theUSAwillremainanactortobereckonedwithintheyearstocome,evenifit

isstillimpossibletopredictwithcertaintywhatkindofroleitwillplay.Onthe

onehanditwouldbegoodtohaveaUSAthatdoesnotseemallpowerful,

becauseitcouldadoptahumblerattitudeandpolicyandmightbemorewillingto

listentoothers.However,iftheUSAemergesterriblydebilitatedfromthe

crisis,theworldwilllackaleader.Itisacaseof“cantlivewithem,cantlive

withoutem”.

4.犛狆犲犮犻犳犻犮犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犫犲狋狑犲犲狀狋犺犲犕犪犻狀犃犮狋狅狉狊

4.1!LatinAmericaEuropeanUnion

Theyear2009markedthetenthanniversaryoftheestablishmentofthe

socalled“strategicbiregionalassociation”,whichstartedwiththefirstEU

LatinAmerica/Caribbean(LAC)SummitinRiodeJaneiroinJune1999.The

EULACschemeprofessestomaintainapoliticaldialogueatthehighestlevel

amongpartnersthat,inpracticalterms,areconsideredtobetwohomogeneous

260   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

regions;henceitscharacterisationas“biregional”.Ontheonehand,itis

assumedthatLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanformasingleregionthatspeaks

withonevoice—anassumptionthatcanonlybeconsideredpurepolitical

fiction—and,ontheotherhand,thatthereisanEUof27membersthat,even

thoughitisthemostadvancedintegrationprocessintheworld,isnotalways

capableofspeakingwithonevoiceaboutinternationalissues.

Ultimately,EULACsummitsaremeetingsof60representativesofvery

differentstates,withdiverseagendasandinterests which,althoughheld

dutifullyeverytwoyears,producefewconcreteresults,beyondtheobligatory

declarationsbasedonthesharedvaluesthesetworegionsaresupposedto

uphold.ThetenthanniversaryoftheEULACmechanismwascelebratedduring

thelastEUPresidencywiththeformatthatprevailedbeforetheentryintoforce

oftheLisbonTreatyinDecember2009,whichmeantthatitwasinthehandsof

Spain,acountryforwhichtieswithLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanarevery

importantandwhichhasservedasthemainpromoterofsuchrelationswithintheEU.

Ifthetruthbetold,aftertenyearsofthesocalled“strategicbiregional

association”,theformathasprovedtobeawkwardandisnowoldandobsolete.

Thetwolevelstrategy—valuesandinterests—doesnotseemlikelytoholdfor

muchlonger.Itisnotastrategicrelationship,itisnotabiregionalrelationship

anditishardlyatrueassociation.Asthingsstand,the“naturalalliance”isno

longerarealityinthispartnershipanditisalsosafetosaythatEuropesregionalisation

strategyinLatinAmericahasfailed,onlyaddingtowhatisperceivedtobeanormative

andjudgmentalapproach,basedondoublestandards.

Themainissueisstillthesame:EuropewantsLatinAmericatobewhatit

cannotbe:asingleregion,aregionwithnoinequality,aregionwithdeveloped

democracies,aregionthatrespectstheenvironment,aregionthathaseconomic

sustainabilityandsoon.Mostofthesethingsareunattainableforthetime

being,oratleastthey willnotbeachieved viaforeign pressureand

conditionality.LatinAmericaisdiverse,unequallydeveloped,nevertoopoor,

nevertoorich,withmanyconflictsbutofadifferentnaturefromthosewhocall

forintervention.Theconversation,then,islopsided.Lastbutnotleast,even

thoughtheUSApaidlittleattentiontoitstraditionalbackyardundertheBush

administration,itsstrategyofsigningbilateralagreementswithmanycountries

intheregionbasicallykilledtheEuropeanregionalisationandgrouptogroup

negotiationstrategyforgood.Inthatsense,whenLatinAmericansdemandfrom

EuropeansfreetradeagreementsandaccesstotheEuropeansinglemarket,it

meansthattherestofthemanybeautifulinstitutions—asortof“mobile”that

TheEU,LatinAmericaandChina:GeometricalPatternsinCurrentandFutureRelations 261  

looksprettybutjusthangsthere,withouttouchingtheground—andpractices

thattherelationshipseemstohaveareirrelevantfortheregionscountries.

Moreover,as with China,buteven worsegiventhehistoryofthe

relationship,thereisadeeplackofunderstandingofhowtheEuropeanUnion

worksandfunctions.LatinAmericanskeepthinkingofEuropeintermsofits

individualstates,especiallySpain.Spainhashadacontroversialroleinthis

relationshipthathasbecomeevidentinthepastfewyears.Itiscertainlythe

memberstatethathasinsistedmostthattheEuropeanUnionmaintainsstrong

relationswithLatinAmerica.However,ithasstartedtoactmoreasaproxyof

theEuropean Unionthanasatrueambassador,bridgeorwhateverother

metaphoronemightchoose.Thishasbecomeparticularlyevidentontheissueof

migration.ItistruethatSpainhasbeenthemaindestinationofmostLatin

Americanflows.However,whenevertheEuropeanUnionhaslaunchedcommon

initiativesintherealm ofmigrationpolicy,suchastheinfamousReturn

Directive,SpainhasfailedtoactastheUnionsrepresentativeand,toprevent

itsrelationswithLatinAmericafromsuffering,hasevendeclaredthatthe

DirectivewouldnotapplyinSpain.

Evenifforpoliticalreasonsthatcouldbeconsideredacceptable,intermsof

thefutureofEULACrelationsthisisaheavyblowtomutualunderstandingand

thestrategicbiregionalassociationbased,supposedly,onpoliticaldialogueat

thehighestlevel.Moreover,ithaspreventedatruedialoguebetweenboth

regionsonmigrationissuesthatcouldbetakentothemultilaterallevelonthe

basisofgenuinelysharedinterests.Intheend,itcallsintoquestiontheneedor

therelevanceofthesocalledbiregionalstrategicassociation.Woulditbebetter

tokeepdealingwiththeseissuesandothersofasimilarcharacterwithinthe

IberoAmericanfora?Overall,then,Spainishardlyrepresentativeofthecurrent

EuropeanUnion,whileLatinAmericansaredeceivingthemselvesbytaking

SpainspositionsandpoliciesasequivalenttothoseofEurope.

4.2!ChinaLatinAmerica

ChinaspresenceinLatinAmericaisbothfeared,intermsofitsstrengthas

atradepower,andneeded,giventhatitisthesolesurvivoroftheinternational

crisisactuallyabletoprovidemuchneededcashtoLatinAmericaneconomies

thatareindireeconomicstraits,suchas Venezuela.TheChinesehave

establishedabridgeheadinLatinAmericaandtheywillnotwanttoleavefor

quiteawhile.Theyhavecomewithaclearerunderstandingoftheregion,vis

visthecommonmisconceptionsofEuropeansandAmericans,whostillwantto

talkaboutasingleLatinAmerica.PerhapsChinasrelationswiththeregions

262   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

countrieswillhavethesameresultasitdidfortheEuropeans:itwillcement

Chinasroleasamajorglobalpower.Afterall,LatinAmericansandChinese

sharemanymorethingsthanEuropeansandLatinAmericans:perhapsnotfrom

thepointofviewoftraditionalcultureandvalues,butasmembersoftheG5and

G20,forexample.Theinternationaleconomiccrisiswillcertainlybealitmus

testfortheserelationsandthecoincidenceofinterests.Nonetheless,Chinahas

totakebabystepsintermsofitsrelationswithLatinAmerica.Providingcash

starvedgovernmentswithresourcesmaybeadoubleedgedsword.

FromtheLatinAmericanperspective,itwouldbeamistaketothinkthat

ChinaisasubstituteforitsrelationswitheithertheUSAortheEU.Noneof

theseactorscansubstituteforoneanother.Trueinterests—andsomewould

say,valuestoo—mustbeatthebasisofrelations,beyondthesempiternalneed

todiversify.

Iffactsmustbetakenintoaccount,itshouldbenotedthatChinawill

displaceEuropeandwillbeclosebehindtheUSAasadestinationofLatin

Americanexportsinaboutadecade,accordingtoarecentstudypublishedbythe

UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

(ECLAC),“ThePeoplesRepublicofChinaandLatin Americaandthe

Caribbean:TowardsaStrategicRelationship”.Ifthecurrentgrowthrateof

LatinAmericanexportstoitsmainmarketsismaintained,Chinasparticipation

willrisefrom7.6percentin2009to19.3percentin2020.Inthesameperiod,

theEUwillmaintainparticipationofaround14percentandwillbesurpassedby

Chinain2015.

Accordingtothisreport,thegrowthofChinaasadestinationofLatin

Americanexportswillbeachievedasaresultofthepersistentfallintheregions

exportstotheUnitedStates,from38.6percentofthetotalin2009to28.4per

centin2020.TheECLACdoessay,however,thattheimportanceofChinaasan

exportmarketvariesnotablyamongLatinAmericancountries,giventhatitisa

keydestinationforChile,PeruandArgentina,forexample,butnotforCentral

America,withthenotableexceptionofCostaRica.InthecaseofMexico,its

exportstoChinarepresentedlessthan1percentofthetotalin2009.

IntermsofChinasimports,thestudypredictsasimilarevolution,oran

evenmoreradicalone,giventhatChinacouldsurpassboththeEUandtheUSA

in2020andbecomethemainoriginofLatinAmericanimports.Thegrowthin

Chineseimportswillconcentrateonthesamecapitalgoodsthatalreadyhavea

presenceintheregion.Thesechanges,predictedtotakeplaceinthenext

decade,willcertainlyaltertherangeofoptionsavailableforconstructing

triangularrelationseitherwiththeUSAortheEU,LatinAmericaandChina.

TheEU,LatinAmericaandChina:GeometricalPatternsinCurrentandFutureRelations 263  

However,beyondChinasextraordinaryeconomicpower,itmustbenoted

thatitcanhaveahugepoliticalinfluenceintheregion.TheChinesedevelopment

modelisprovingtobeextremelyattractiveforLatinAmericancountrieshungry

forhighgrowthratesandfastindustrialisation.Moreover,sincethemodeldoes

notincludethesamevalueledagendathathasbeenpushedbytheEU,focusing

ondemocracy,socialcohesionandhumanrights,itcertainlycouldbeattractive

forLatinAmericanelitespronetoauthoritarianismandpopulismandinsearchof

apoliticaldiscoursebasedonastrongstateandthedefenceofsovereignty.

4.3!USALatinAmerica

RegardlessofhowtheUSAemergesfromtheeconomiccrisis,itwillremain

afundamentalpartnerforallthreeactors:LatinAmerica,EuropeandChina.It

isyettobeseenhowthechangeinUSleadershipwillaffectitsrelationswiththe

outsideworld.Nonetheless,thefutureofallthreeactorswill,inmanyways,be

determinedbytheinvolvementwiththeUSA,eventothepointofbeing

demographicallyintertwined,asisthecasewith manycountriesinLatin

America,andespeciallyMexico,giventhesharedhistoryofmigratoryflows.

Nonetheless,thefutureofUSLatinAmericanrelationswillcertainlybe

differentfrominthepast.Today,LatinAmericaseemstobemorecapableof

standingitsgroundand,especiallytheSouthernCone,givenitssuccessful

diversificationstrategy,tospeakwithitsownvoice.TheyearstheUSAhasbeen

absentfromtheregionorpresentonlythroughmilitarisedrelations—ashasbeenthe

casewithColombia,forexample—willbecostlyforthefutureofUSpowerinthe

region.Likewise,thestrongcompetitiontheUSAwillfacefromactorssuchasChina

willcertainlyimposeadifferentcharacterontheserelations.

5.犉犻狀犪犾犚犲犿犪狉犽狊牶犗犳犜狉犻犪狀犵犾犲狊犪狀犱犚犺狅犿犫狅犻犱狊—犐狋犇犲狆犲狀犱狊狅狀狋犺犲犔犲狀狊犢狅狌

犝狊犲

  Inconclusion,eveniftheseallpredictionsprovefalse,theimportanceof

Chinaisunequivocal.Likewise,theimportanceoftheUSAoroftheEuropean

Unioncannotbetotallydismissedyet.LatinAmericawillremainwhereitis,

neitherthepoorestofregionsnorthemostdeveloped.Itwillprobablybe,yet

again,thetestinggroundofthemanypoliciesthatemergeaftertheeconomic

debacle.

Howdifferentorhowsimilararetheseactors?Itdependsonthetypeoflens

weuse,whetheramicroscope,atelescopeortintedglass.Addressingthesame

questionagainintenyearstime,itcannotbesaidwhetherwewillbespeaking

oftrianglesorrhomboids.Nonetheless,geometrywillstillmatter.

264   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

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犘犪狉狋犐 犐

犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚犛犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犺犻狆

狑犻狋犺狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱犆犺犻狀犪

! 267  

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉5

犈犿狆犻狉犻犮犪犾犃狀犪犾狔狊犻狊牶犜狉犪犱犲犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚

犪狀犱犆犺犻狀犪/犈犝—犜狉犲狀犱狊犪狀犱犉犻犵狌狉犲狊

>,.&,* )%**%. %'( 0#5+%=3 ;"&,"*3

1.犐狀狋狉狅犱狌犮狋犻狅狀

Inthispaperweconductanempiricalanalysisofthetradebetween

MERCOSURandChina(Section3)aswellasMERCOSURandtheEU(Section

4).Ourinquiryfocusesonbilateraltradedata,exportandimporttrendsandthe

compositionofMERCOSURexportstothosemarkets.Thereisacritical

analysisattheendofSection3and4.Tradedatawerecompiledbeforethe

adventoftheglobalcrisis.

Someremarksaboutthemethodologyandsourcesofdatadeserveattention

attheoutset.Wegathereddatafromthefollowingsources:Aliceweband

AlicewebMERCOSUR(Braziliandata),SICOEX (MERCOSUR members,

exceptBrazil),COMTRADE(worldtradedata)andEurostat(EU).Export

andimportfiguresareexpressedinUSdollars(USD)andfreeonboard(FOB)

andreferonlytotradeingoods.

Chinasforeigntradefiguresdonotinclude HongKong,Taiwanand

Macau.TheEUfiguresincludethecurrent27members.EUaggregateddataare

compiledfromEurostatandareinaccordancewiththeCommunityGuidelines,

whichmeansthattheymaydifferfromnationaldata.EUfiguresweregathered

ineurosandconvertedtoUSDusingannualaverageratesavailablefromtheUS

FederalReserveBank.1

2.犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚牶犃狀犗狏犲狉狏犻犲狑

MERCOSURistheSouthernCommonMarket,occasionallyreferredtoasthe

CommonMarketoftheSouthernCone.2TheoriginsofMERCOSURlieinthebroader

processofpoliticalrealignmentbetweenBrazilandArgentinathatoccurredinthe

268   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

1980s.TheprocessreacheditsclimaxinJuly1990,whenBrazilandArgentinasigned

theProtocolofBuenosAiresaimingattheestablishmentofacommonmarket.

Atthesametime,negotiationswereinitiatedtoincludeUruguayand

Paraguay.Eventually,on26March1991,theTreatyofAsunciónestablished

MERCOSURandexpandedtheprojecttoincludethosecountries.TheOuro

PretoProtocol,signedinDecember1994,broughtintegrationastepforward

withtheestablishmentofacommonexternaltariff(knownas“TEC”)andthe

launchofacustomsunion.

AcommonmisapprehensionwithregardtoMERCOSURconcernsthestatus

ofVenezuela,BoliviaandChileinrelationtothebloc.Althoughonecanfind

sourcespointingoutthatVenezuelaandBoliviaarealreadyfullMERCOSUR

members,thisisnotaccurate.3VenezuelaappliedforMERCOSURmembership

in2009anditsrequestispendingapprovalbyParaguaysNationalCongress.

Boliviasrequesthasnotevenachievedofficialformulationandonlyinformal

meetingshavebeenconvened.ChileisnotafullmemberofMERCOSUR,but

onlyanassociatemember.

Asthe2007figuresillustrate,MERCOSURcomprisesapopulationof

approximately241million(BrazilandArgentinaaccountfor96percentofthe

totalpopulation).MERCOSURsGDPreachedUSD2.4trillion,withBrazils

andArgentinaseconomiesdominating(accountingfor76percentand22per

centoftotalMERCOSURGDP,respectively).Bywayofcomparison,Chinasand

theEUspopulationsare5.5and2.0timesbiggerthanMERCOSURs,respectively,

whiletheirGDPsare2.9and6.1timeslarger,asshowninTable1.

犜犪犫犾犲1 犘狅狆狌犾犪狋犻狅狀犪狀犱犌犇犘(2007)

Population GDP(USD),PPPGNI(USD)

percapita(PPP)

Brazil 191.6million(5) 1.83trillion(8) 9,370(98)

Argentina 39.5million(31) 523billion(22) 12,990(77)

Uruguay 3.3million(130) 37.3billion(92) 11,040(86)

Paraguay 6.1million(101) 26.5billion(103) 4,380(133)

MERCOSUR 240.5million(≈4) 2.4trillion(≈6) 9,979(≈94)

China 1.32billion(1) 7.0trillion(2) 5,370(≈122)

EU27 497million(≈3) 14.8trillion(≈1) 33,400(≈34)

Note:Numbersinparenthesesrefertotherankofthecountry(orbloc)inthestatistics.The

symbol“≈”indicatesanestimate.

Source:WorldBankforGDPandGNI,CIAWorldFactBookforpopulationandEurostatfor

Europeanfigures.

EmpiricalAnalysis:TradebetweenMERCOSURandChina/EU"TrendsandFigures 269  

3.犅犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犜狉犪犱犲犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚犪狀犱犆犺犻狀犪

WhileChinaseconomicimportanceforLatinAmerica,andforMERCOSUR

inparticular,hasincreasedexponentiallyoverthepastfewyears,countriesin

theregionshouldbewaryofpotentialcompetitionintheirdomesticmarkets.

SincetheopeningupoftheChineseeconomyandthereductionofexportand

importcontrols,BrazilsandArgentinasforeigntradehasshownsustained

growth,whichacceleratedafterChinaundertooktradereforms—including

significanttariffcuts—inthe1990s.ChinasaccessiontotheWTOin2001

furthercontributedtothisdynamic.

FromtheChineseperspective,however,MERCOSURremainsarelatively

unimportantexportdestination.In2007,MERCOSURsimportsfrom China

representedaround1.3percentoftotalChineseexports.Infact,ifweaggregatesome

ofthedestinationsofChineseexports(LatinAmerica,CIS,AfricaandtheMiddle

East),eachofthemrepresents,onaverage,3.8percentofChineseexports.Thebulk

ofChinesegoodsarechannelledtoAsia,NorthAmericaandEurope.Individually,the

UnitedStatesandJapanareChinasmaintradepartners.

犜犪犫犾犲2 犆犺犻狀犪狊犈狓狆狅狉狋狊,犫狔犚犲犵犻狅狀犪狀犱犛犲犾犲犮狋犲犱犈犮狅狀狅犿犻犲狊,20062007(犝犛犇犫犻犾犾犻狅狀)

2006 % 2007 %

World 968.9 100 1,220.1 100

NorthAmerica 219.3 22.6 252.5 20.7

UnitedStates 203.8 21.0 233.2 19.1

Europe 215.4 22.2 288.4 23.6

EuropeanUnion 190.0 19.6 245.6 20.1

CIS 28.0 2.8 48.1 3.9

LatinAmerica 32.8 3.3 48.1 3.9

MERCOSUR 10.1 1.0 16.1 1.3

Africa 26.6 2.7 37.4 3.0

MiddleEast 36.9 3.8 54.8 4.5

Asia 410.7 42.3 501.0 41.0

Japan 91.6 9.4 102.1 8.3

Notes:TheCommonwealthofIndependentStates(CIS)comprisesArmenia,Azerbaijan,

Belarus,Georgia,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Moldova,RussianFederation,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,UkraineandUzbekistan.

South,EastandSouthEastAsia.

Source:PreparedbytheauthorsbasedondatafromCOMTRADEstatistics.

270   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

AsfarasMERCOSURmembersareconcerned,themajordestinationsfor

Brazilianexportswere(2008,2007):theUnitedStates(14percent,15.8per

cent),Argentina(8.9percent,9percent),China(8.3percent,6.7percent)

andtheNetherlands(5.3percent,5.5percent).TheEUisrankedfirst,ifits

membersfiguresareaggregated(theNetherlands,Germany,ItalyandBelgium

arethemainmarkets,inthatorder),basedon MinistryofDevelopment,

IndustryandForeignTradestatistics(Alicewebdata).Ontheotherhand,the

majorcountriesforArgentinasexportswere(2008/2007):Brazil(18.6per

cent,18.7percent),China(9.3percent,9.4percent),theUS(7.4percent,

7.4percent)andChile(7.5percent,6.6percent).TheEUranksfirstin2008

ifits membersfiguresareaggregated,basedon MERCOSUR statistics

(Aliceweb Mercosurdata).Takenasabloc,MERCOSURsmajorexport

partners(2008/2007)weretheEU(26percent,27percent),theUS(13.9per

cent,15.9percent)andChina(9.8percent,8.5percent)(Gambini2008:32;

AlicewebMercosuldata).

3.1!ExportandImportTrends

Inthe1980sandearly1990s,bothBrazilianandArgentineanexportsto

Chinarepresentedlessthan3percentofthosecountriestotalforeignsales

(BarralandPerrone2007).Althoughtradeincreasedsteadilyinthemidandlate

1990s,trulyspectaculargrowthoccurredonlyinthefollowingdecade,as

presentedinFigure1,Figure2andFigure3.

犉犻犵狌狉犲1 犅狉犪狕犻犾/犆犺犻狀犪犜狉犪犱犲犅犪犾犪狀犮犲2002/2008(犝犛$犿犻犾犾犻狅狀狊)

   

犉犻犵狌狉犲2 犃狉犵犲狀狋犻狀犪/犆犺犻狀犪犜狉犪犱犲犅犪犾犪狀犮犲2002/2008(犝犛$犿犻犾犾犻狅狀狊)

EmpiricalAnalysis:TradebetweenMERCOSURandChina/EU"TrendsandFigures 271  

犉犻犵狌狉犲3 犕犲狉犮狅狊狌狉/犆犺犻狀犪犜狉犪犱犲犅犪犾犪狀犮犲2002/2008(犝犛$犿犻犾犾犻狅狀狊)

Source:PreparedbytheauthorsbasedondatafromAlicewebandSICOEX.

Intheperiod20022007,forinstance,BrazilianexportstoChinaroseby326

percent(551percentfortheperiod20022008).Importgrowthratessoaredto

fourdigitfigures—around1,200 percent—duringtheperiod20022008.

ArgentinastradewithChinafollowedasimilarpatternofgrowthintheperiod

20022007,whenexportsandimportsgrew by372and1,442percent,

respectively(seeTable3).

犜犪犫犾犲3 犈狓狆狅狉狋狊犪狀犱犐犿狆狅狉狋狊,犃狀狀狌犪犾犆犺犪狀犵犲(%)

YearBrazilChina ArgentinaChina MERCOSURChina

Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports

2003/2002 79.8 38 127 118 91 49

2004/2003 20.0 73 6 95 15 79

2005/2004 25.6 44 21 60 24 48

2006/2005 22.9 49 9 40 18 51

2007/2006 27.9 58 49 63 33 50

2008/2007 52.6 59 -58 -47 16 20

2007/2002 326.4 712.2 372 1,442 332 792

2008/2002 550.7 1,190 97 720 401 974

Source:PreparedbytheauthorsbasedondatafromAlicewebandSICOEX.

Nonetheless,thegrowthratesoftradebetweenBrazil/ArgentinaandChina

differedsignificantlyin2008.Ontheonehand,BrazilianexportstoChina

272   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

reachedUSD16.8billionandimportsUSD20billion(up53percentand59per

cent,respectively,incomparisonto2007).Argentina,ontheotherhand,

exportedUSD2.2billionandimportedUSD2.7billion(fallsof58percentand

47percent,respectively,incomparisonto2007).Argentinasdeclinecanbe

explainedbyseveralchangesinimportpolicy,suchasnonautomaticlicensing

procedures,implementedinthesecondsemesterof2008.

WithregardtoMERCOSURstradebalance,asonemightexpect,thedifference

betweenthelowergrowthratesofexportsincomparisontoimportscaused

MERCOSURtoregisterthefirstdeficitinitstradebalancein2006 (USD875

million).Thatyearrepresentstheinflectionpointofthecurveaftermanyyearsof

positivesurplus:subsequently,thedeficitreachedroughlyUSD3billionin2007and

USD5billionin2008.AcontributoryfactorinthisreversalisthatimportsfromChina

areconcentratedinproductsofhigheraggregatevalue,whilebasicproductsrepresent

mostofMERCOSURsexports.Inthewakeoftheworldfinancialcrisis,basic

productssufferedmorefromthefallininternationalpricesformineralandagricultural

commodities,especiallyinthesecondsemesterof2008.

Ingeneral,thetwosmallerMERCOSURpartners,UruguayandParaguay,

donotsignificantlyaffectMERCOSURexportfigures.Intheperiod20022008,

UruguaysaverageexportstoChinaamountedto USD126 millionayear

(approximately1to2percentofMERCOSURsexports).Paraguaysaverage

wasevenlowerin20022008:USD23million,accountingforlessthan0.5per

centof MERCOSURs exports. The impact of the two partners on

MERCOSURsimportsismoresignificant,however.Asshownbelow,Uruguay

andParaguayareresponsibleforanenduringdeficitinMERCOSURstrade

balance,withapeakof14.1percentoftotalimportsin2006(USD1.6billion).

犜犪犫犾犲4 犆狅狀狊狅犾犻犱犪狋犲犱犜狉犪犱犲犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犝狉狌犵狌犪狔/犘犪狉犪犵狌犪狔犪狀犱犆犺犻狀犪,20022008(%)

Exports % Imports % Surplus

2002 111,304 3.0 286,679 12.0  -175,375

2003 112,108 1.6 361,660 10.6 -249,552

2004 157,407 1.9 661,181 10.8 -503,774

2005 189,222 1.9 958,451 10.6 -769,229

2006 184,794 1.5 1,825,514 13.5 -1,640,720

2007 214,119 1.3 2,163,477 10.3 -1,949,358

2008 264,590 1.1 3,379,310 10.5 -3,114,720

Source:SICOEX.

EmpiricalAnalysis:TradebetweenMERCOSURandChina/EU"TrendsandFigures 273  

3.2!CompositionofMERCOSURExports

Between2001and2003,primaryproductsmadeup55.5percentof

BrazilianshipmentstoChina,doubletheproportionofsuchproductsinthe

countrystotalexports.Semimanufacturedgoodsrepresented20.1percentof

exportstoChinacomparedto14.7percentinoverallforeignsales.While

shipmentsoffullyprocessedmanufacturesaccountedfor55.1percentofBrazils

totalexports,theyamountedtoonly24.1percentofgoodsshippedtoChina.

AsBarralandPerronepointout:“[i]naddition,Brazilianexportswere

concentratedinjusteightsectors,withagrifoodandextractive minerals

representing47percentofthetotal.Interestingly,thisratioisvirtually

unchangedsince1985.”(BarralandPerrone2007)

Particularlysince2004,primaryproductsparticipationinBrazilianexports

toChinahasincreasedevenmore.Intheperiod20042008,basicproductsmade

up72.5percentofBrazilianshipmentstoChina(reachingapeakof77.5per

centin2008).Ironoreandsoybeanswerethemainproductsshipped.

Intheperiod20012003,thelevelofexportconcentrationwasalsohighfor

Argentina:threeproducts—soyaseeds(41percent),unprocessedpetroleumoil

(25percent)andsoyaoil(18percent)—accountedfor84percentofallgoods

exportedtoChina.Industrialmanufacturesrepresentedonly4percentofthe

total.Intheperiod20032006,theshareofagrifoodshipmentsreached72

percent.Theseproductsinvolvedno(orverylittle)processing,afigurefar

higherthanthe49percentthatprimaryagriculturalandindustrialproducts

(excludingfuels)representinthecountrystotalexports(BarralandPerrone

2007).Recentdatafrom2007and2008appeartocorroborateArgentinean

primaryexportstoChinaatthe80percentlevels:soyaseedsaccountedforan

averageof50.5percent,whileunprocessedpetroleumandsoyaoiltogether

representedanaverageof31.2percentofthoseexports(SICOEX,aggregated

byNCMchapters).

3.3!TradeBarriers

InaccordancewithChinastradepolicyreview (TPR)carriedoutbythe

WTO,Chinassimpleaverageappliedtariffis9.7percent(thesameasin

2005).Theaveragemostfavourednation(MFN)tariffratesforagriculturaland

manufacturedproductswere15.3percentand8.8percent,respectively(also

thesameas2005)(WTO2008:43).Thehighestappliedtariffsareleviedon

footwear,processedfoodandvegetableproducts(WTO2008:50).

AsBarralandPerroneemphasise,“[t]heChinesetariffstructurecontains

274   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

significantpeaks.Whilethesearemorepronouncedinthesectorofindustrial

goods,theyremainrelevantintheagrifoodsector.Forinstance,hightariffsare

leviedonunprocessedagriculturalproducts,suchasstrawberries(30percent),

plums(25percent),wheatandrice(65percent)andsugar(60percent).In

contrast,marketaccessformineralsandfuelsislargelydutyfree,ortariffsare

verylow”(BarralandPerrone2007).

Overall,tradeandtraderelatedmeasures,bothattheborderandinternally,are

stillusedasinstrumentsofChineseindustrialpolicy.TariffsremainoneofChinas

maintradepolicyinstruments.Inadditiontohightariffsforprocessedfoodproducts,

ArgentinasandBrazilsexportstoChinacontinuetofaceconsiderablenontariff

barriers,includingtaxes,subsidiesandphytosanitarymeasures.

3.4!CriticalAnalysis

MERCOSURprovidestheAsiangiantwithproductsthatareimmediately

processedandeitherexportedtothirdmarketsorconsumedlocally.Tosome

extent,MERCOSURsexportfrenzytowardsChinacanbeexplainedbythe

phenomenalgrowthoftheChineseeconomy,aswellascertaincomplementarities

betweentheindividualeconomiesinvolved.Indeed,importsfromChinahave

registeredtheirhighestgrowthinsectorsinwhichArgentinaandBrazilhave

majorcompetitiveadvantages.ThistrendcanalsobeexplainedbyChinas

strategyofenlargingthelistofitstradepartnersandreducingitsdependencyon

commoditiessuppliers.

AsimilarstrategyisbeingpursuedbyChinatowardsAfrica,whichalso

involvesmassiveinvestmentsintheinfrastructureofthatcontinent.

AlthoughbilateraltradebetweenMERCOSURandChinais,atleastin

theory,basedoncomparativeadvantages,intraindustrialtraderemainsalmost

nonexistent.ThisisnotthecasewithotherAsiandevelopingcountries,where

thetradepatternreflectsthepartnersspecialisationanddivisionoflabouratthe

globallevel(BarralandPerrone2007).

ThereisnodoubtthattheprincipalchallengeMERCOSURisfacingisto

maintainandimproveitsintegrationintotheChineseeconomy,whileatthesame

timepreservingthecompetitivenessofitsindustrialproductsandeventually

increasingthevalueaddedcontentofitsexports.TheBraziliangovernment,for

instance,haslaunchedaspecificprogramme (“AgendaChina”)aimingat

enhancingBrazilianexportsoftechnologicalproductsandhighervalueadded

productstotheChinesemarket(AgendaChina2008:17).4

Ontheimportsside,theBraziliangovernmentisfrequentlypressuredby

localproducerswithregardtotheopeningupoftheBrazilianmarkettoallegedly

EmpiricalAnalysis:TradebetweenMERCOSURandChina/EU"TrendsandFigures 275  

unfairChinesecompetition,forinstanceinsectorssuchassteel,textilesand

electronics.In2010,thepressureescalatedinthewakeofglobalclaimsthat

Chinahasbeenkeepingitscurrencyundervalued,whichamountstounfair

competition.

Asforexternaltrade,theInterAmericanDevelopmentBank(IADB)has

estimatedthatonly2percentofArgentineanexportstothirdmarketsarelikely

tobedisplacedbyChinesecompetition.Brazilappearstohaveslightlymore

causeforconcern:overthepastdecade,thecountryhaslost4percentofits

exportstothirdmarketstoChina(BarralandPerrone2007).

Anotherstudyestimatesin moredetailBrazilianexportlossesdueto

Chinesecompetitioninrelevantmarkets(PereiraandSouza2008:4445).The

studycomparestheoverlappingofBrazilianexportsandChineseexportsintwo

periods:20032004and20062007.ItaffirmsthatBrazillost,intotal,USD2

billionintheArgentineanmarket,USD10billioninUSmarketsandUSD7.8

billioninEUmarkets.TheChinese“effect”onthoselossesisestimatedtobe

51.5percent(Argentina),31.6percent(US),and35.7percent(EU),which

amountstoroughlyUSD7billionintwoyears(approximately2.4percentof

Brazilstotalexports).ItisnoteworthythatChineseexportsevenmanagedto

displaceBrazilianproductsthataregivenpreferentialtreatmentinArgentina,

suchasmotorcycles,organicinorganiccomplexes,colouredbulbs,televisions

andrubberfootwear(PereiraandSouza2008:45).

Insum,inthefirstdecadeofthetwentyfirstcentury,MERCOSURs

integrationintotheChineseeconomyseemstobereminiscentofaNorthSouth

paradigmtypicalofthenineteenthcentury:theexchangeofrawmaterialsand

manufacturedproducts,althoughnotfrom NorthtoSouth,geographically

speaking.Thistrendwasparticularlyaccentuatedintheperiod20062008,as

observedintheempiricalanalysis.Withoutenteringintoadetaileddiscussionof

thelongterm effects ofa trade strategy based on naturalresources,

MERCOSURChinamarketsrevealopportunitiesforbothsides.Atthesame

time,the overallpicture presentstougherchallengesto MERCOSURs

members,sinceimportsfromChinahavesoaredandChinaisemergingasa

potentialthreattoMERCOSURsexportsaroundtheworld.

4.犅犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犜狉犪犱犲犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚犪狀犱狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犝狀犻狅狀

TheEU representsanimportanttradingpartnerfor MERCOSUR,with

approximately26percentoftheblocsexports(AlicewebMercosur).Nonetheless,

fromtheEU perspective,MERCOSURremainsarelatively minorexport

destinationforgoods.Intheperiod20062007,MERCOSURsimportsfromthe

276   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

EU represented approximately 2.7 percentoftotal European exports.

Individually,theUnitedStates(24.5percent),Switzerland(7.5percent),

Russia(7.2percent)andChina(6.7percent)arethemaindestinationofEU

exports.

犜犪犫犾犲5 犈犝犈狓狆狅狉狋狊犫狔犚犲犵犻狅狀犪狀犱犛犲犾犲犮狋犲犱犈犮狅狀狅犿犻犲狊,20062007(犝犛犇犿犻犾犾犻狅狀)

2006  % 2007  %

World 1,270 100 1,465 100

North

America373 29.4 395 27.0

UnitedStates 340 26.8 359 24.5

LatinAmerica 76 6.0 95 6.5

MERCOSUR 30 2.4 39 2.7

CIS 132 10.4 175 12.9

Africa 115 9.1 141 9.6

MiddleEast 177 13.9 205 14.0

Asia 311 24.5 363 24.8

China 80 6.3 98 6.7

Notes:WeexcludedintraEU27and“OtherEurope”fromtheoriginalstatistics.

Source:PreparedbytheauthorsbasedonCOMTRADEstatistics.

AmongindividualEUmembers,Germany(18percent),theNetherlands

(15.7percent)andItaly(13.1percent)werethemostimportantdestinations

forMERCOSURsexports.Notably,asanEUentrypoint,theNetherlands

(theportofRotterdam)accountsforanimportantshareofimportsonentry(suchasironorefromBrazil).Germany(30percent),France(15percent)and

Italy(15percent)arethemainexporterstoMERCOSUR.

4.1!ExportandImportTrends

Intheperiod19901998,MERCOSURregisteredatradedeficitwiththe

EU.From1998on,thisstartedtogointoreverse.Inthe2000s,asshown

below,acontinuoustradesurplusinfavourofMERCOSURcanbeidentified.

Indeed,thefigureindicatesarelativelystabledevelopment:anaverageofUSD

10.4billion/yearintheperiod20032008.

EmpiricalAnalysis:TradebetweenMERCOSURandChina/EU"TrendsandFigures 277  

犉犻犵狌狉犲4 犅狉犪狕犻犾/犈犝犜狉犪犱犲犅犪犾犪狀犮犲2002/2008(犝犛$犿犻犾犾犻狅狀狊)

   

犉犻犵狌狉犲5 犃狉犵犲狀狋犻狀犪/犈犝犜狉犪犱犲犅犪犾犪狀犮犲2002/2008(犝犛$犿犻犾犾犻狅狀狊)

犉犻犵狌狉犲6 犕犲狉犮狅狊狌狉/犈犝犜狉犪犱犲犅犪犾犪狀犮犲2002/2008(犝犛$犿犻犾犾犻狅狀狊)

  Source:PreparedbytheauthorsbasedondatafromAlicewebandSICOEX.

Despitethisfairlystablesurplus,inthepastfiveyears MERCOSUR

exportsandimportsgrewby144percentand136percent,respectively,

reachingUSD59billionandUSD52billion,respectively.Thismeansanaverage

increaseof20percentand25percent,respectively,peryear.Theyear2008is

anexception,sincetherewasadeviationfromthisoveralltrend,mainlydueto

theworldfinancialcrisisand Argentinasfigures.WhileBrazilmaintained

growthinbothexportsandimports,Argentinasexportsweresteadybutits

importsdecreasedbyaround23percent.

278   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

犜犪犫犾犲6 犈狓狆狅狉狋狊犪狀犱犐犿狆狅狉狋狊,犃狀狀狌犪犾犆犺犪狀犵犲(%)

YearBrazilEU ArgentinaEU MERCOSUREU

Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports

2004/2003 33.3 22 3 51 25 27

2005/2004 9.3 14 12 14 9 14

2006/2005 25.4 16 16 21 23 18

2007/2006 29.5 44 31 54 30 44

2008/2007 14.5 35 0 -23 12 22

2007/2003 136.6 132.1 75.0 221.4 117.9 145.8

2008/2003 170.9 212.6 75.1 63.1 144.2 136.4

Source:PreparedbytheauthorsbasedondatafromAlicewebandSICOEX.

ComparisonoftheparticipationofUruguayandParaguayinMERCOSUR

EUandMERCOSURChinatraderevealstwoimportantpoints.First,Uruguay

andParaguaytogetherrepresent,onaverage,3.5percentofMERCOSURs

exports(andlessthan1percentwithregardtoMERCOSURChina).Asimilar

degreeofparticipationoccursontheimportside,withthetwocountries

accountingforanaverageof3.2percentoftotalimports(vs.11percentwith

regardtoMERCOSURChina).Inotherwords,UruguayandParaguaydonot

depress MERCOSURstradebalance,butadd positivelytotheverified

MERCOSURsurplusinallanalysedyears.

犜犪犫犾犲7 犆狅狀狊狅犾犻犱犪狋犲犱犜狉犪犱犲狑犻狋犺犈犝,犝狉狌犵狌犪狔/犘犪狉犪犵狌犪狔,20022008(犝犛犇犿犻犾犾犻狅狀)

Exports % Imports % Surplus

2003 1,023 4.2  606 3.5 417

2004 1,179 3.9 699 3.2 480

2005 1,087 3.3 763 3.1 325

2006 1,261 3.1 1,235 4.2 26

2007 1,671 3.2 1,259 3.0 412

2008 2,155 3.7 1,432 2.8 723

Source:SICOEX.

4.2!CompositionofTradeExports

WithregardtoBrazil,in2008theEUimportedprimaryproducts(47per

EmpiricalAnalysis:TradebetweenMERCOSURandChina/EU"TrendsandFigures 279  

cent),semimanufactured(15percent)andmanufacturedproducts(38per

cent).Thesenumbersarenearlythesameasin2003(50percent,13percent

and36percent,respectively).Interestingly,asalsoobservedwithregardto

BraziliantradewithChina,thereislittlediversificationintermsofexport

compositionovertwodecades(Aliceweb).ItshouldbenotedthatBrazilisthe

thirdlargestagriculturalexporterintheworld,andtheEUhasbeen,and

remains,thetopdestinationforBrazilianagriexports(ICONE2007:75).At

thesametime,theEUcontinuestobeamajorconcernintradenegotiationssince

BrazilregardsEuropeanagriculturalprotectionismasimproper.

IncomparisontoBrazil,theremainingMERCOSURmembershaveahigher

concentrationofexportsintheagriculturalsector.In2007,agrirelatedproducts

represented76percent,72percentand85percentofArgentinas,Uruguays

andParaguaysexportstotheEU,respectively(Eurostat).Takenasabloc,

MERCOSURsexportscomprisefoodproducts(35percent),rawmaterials(26

percent)andmachineryandtransportequipment(25percent).AsregardsEU

exportstoMERCOSUR,manufacturedgoodsarethemainrepresentativeitems

(93percent),withmachineryandchemicalsasthemainEUproducts.

Insum,mostofMERCOSURsexportstotheEUarebasicproducts,with

aconcentrationonagrirelateditems.Intheoppositedirection,theEUexports

mainlymachinery,transportequipmentandchemicals.

4.3!CriticalAnalysis

Overall,Brazilis,byfar,themajorMERCOSURplayerintheMERCOSUREU

traderelationship(around75percentofexportsandimportsto/fromtheEU)

(Gambini2008).TheMERCOSUREUtradebalancemakesthisevident(notice,

forinstance,theoverlappingofthetradesurpluscurves).Itshouldbenoted

thattheEUisalsothebiggestforeigninvestorinBrazil,accordingtothe

BrazilianCentralBank.

Anotherinterestingfeatureofthisrelationshipisthattherehasbeenlittle

diversificationintheproductcategoriesofMERCOSURsexports.Forinstance,

inthecaseofBrazilsexports,acomparisonofthe1988and2008figures

indicatesthefollowingcomposition:basicproducts(49percent/47percent),

semimanufactured(14percent/15percent)andmanufacturedproducts(37per

cent/38percent)(Aliceweb).

Finally,itshouldbenotedthat,in1995,MERCOSURandtheEUsigned

theEUMERCOSURInterregionalFrameworkCooperationAgreement.The

negotiationswereformallylaunchedinJune1999andtariffandservices

negotiationsstartedinJuly2001.Marketoffersfrombothsides,including

280   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

goods,services,governmentprocurementandinvestment,wereexchangedin

September2004,butwerenotdeemedsufficientforanagreement.Sincethen,

MERCOSURandtheEUhavemetanumberoftimesatministerialandsenior

officiallevels.Negotiationswereformallyresumedatthebeginningof2010and

theyareongoing.

5.犆狅狀犮犾狌狊犻狅狀

Thischapterdevelopsanempiricalanalysisofthetradepatternsbetween

MERCOSURChina and MERCOSUREuropean Union. With regard to

MERCOSURChina,thedatashowthatbilateraltradehasboomedinrecent

years,trackingChinasemergenceasamajorglobalplayer.However,thetrade

patternthatemergesseemstohaveconsolidatedMERCOSURsroleasasupplier

ofbasicproductsandarecipientofmanufacturedproductsfromChina.Two

otherdimensionscanbeobserved:ontheonehand,thesurgeinChineseimports

toMERCOSUR (972percentintheperiod20022008)andtheconsequent

challengesto MERCOSURslocalindustries;and,ontheotherhand,the

potentialof Chinese productsto displace MERCOSUR exportstothird

countries.

MERCOSUREUtraderevealsaconsistentsurplusinfavourofMERCOSURin

theperiod20042008(onaverage,USD10billion).Thisfairlysteadysurpluscannot

bemisinterpreted,sinceexportsandimportsbetweenthoseregionsincreased,on

average,by20percentand25percent,respectively.Moreover,similartothe

MERCOSURChinapattern,MERCOSUREU bilateraltraderepresentsa

paradigmoftheexchangeofprimarymanufacturedproducts,althoughnotinthe

sameproportionasobservedinthefirstsetofdataanalysed.

Notes

1.Inchronologicalorder,USD/EUR:0.945(2002);1.132(2003);1.244(2004);

1.245(2005);1.257(2006);1.371(2007);and1.473(2008).Thesefiguresare

availableat:http://www.federalreserve.gov.

2.TheacronymisacontractionoftheSpanish“MercadoComúndelSur”.InPortuguese,

theblocisknownas“Mercosul”.

3.TheaccessionofnewmembersisgovernedbyDecision28/05oftheCommonMarket

Council(CMC),anorganofMERCOSUR.

4.Also,BrazilandChinahaveinitiatedtalksonalocalcurrencypaymentsystemforforeigntrade

operations.ItisworthnotingthatBrazilandArgentinaalreadyhaveasimilarsystem.

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犅狉犪狕犻犾犻犪狀 犜狉犪犱犲 犛狋犪狋犻狊狋犻犮狊,online:http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/http://

aliceweb.mdic.gov.br/.

MinistériodoDesenvolvimento,IndústriaeComércioExterior,AlicewebMercosuldatabase,

犜犺犲犕犲狉犮狅狊狌狉犜狉犪犱犲犛狋犪狋犻狊狋犻犮狊,online:http://www.alicewebmercosul.mdic.gov.br/.

RodriguezAlcaletal.(2007),InstituteforInternationalTradeNegotiation—ICONE,

犗狏犲狉狏犻犲狑狅犳犃犵狉犻犉狅狅犱犛狋狉狌犮狋狌狉犲,犜狉犪犱犲犪狀犱犘狅犾犻犮犻犲狊犻狀犅狉犪狕犻犾.

Pereira,LiaVallsandAndréLuizSilvadeSouza(2008),AConcorrênciaChinesaeasPerdas

Brasileiras:oqueMudou?(TheChineseCompetitionandtheBrazilianLosses:What

HasChanged?)in:犆狅狀犼狌狀狋狌狉犪犈犮狅狀犿犻犮犪[EconomicConjuncture],December,4445.

Rocha,Janes(2009),BarreirasArgentinasJPreocupamEmpresriosLocais(Argentineans

BarriersAlready WorryLocalBusinessman),in:犑狅狉狀犪犾犞犪犾狅狉犈犮狅狀犿犻犮狅[Valor

Newspaper],17April,A5.

SICOEX,online:http://www.aladi.org (follow “Estadisticas”,then “Comerciode

Bienes”).

UnitedNations,COMTRADEdatabase,犐狀犳狅狉犿犪狋犻狅狀犪狀犱犇犪狋犪狅狀犐狀狋犲狉狀犪狋犻狅狀犪犾犕犲狉犮犺犪狀犱犻狊犲

犜狉犪犱犲犛狋犪狋犻狊狋犻犮狊,online:http://comtrade.un.org/db/.

WTO(2008),犜狉犪犱犲犘狅犾犻犮狔犚犲狏犻犲狑犆犺犻狀犪,ReportbytheSecretariat,April16,online:

http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/s19900_e.doc.

282   !

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉6

犜狉犪犱犻狀犵狑犻狋犺犌犻犪狀狋狊牶犐狊犜狉犪犱犲犘狅犾犻犮狔狑犻狋犺狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱

犆犺犻狀犪犅犲狀犲犳犻犮犻犪犾狋狅犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚?

?%*.35 ?%*=%..3 7@%.("'A

1.犐狀狋狉狅犱狌犮狋犻狅狀

TheSouthernCommonMarket(MERCOSUR)wassetupin1991bythe

signingoftheAsunciónTreaty.Itisanambitiousregionalintegrationproject

bringingtogetherArgentina,Brazil,ParaguayandUruguaywiththeultimate

objectiveofestablishing a Common Market.Although various bilateral

agreementsalreadyexistedamongthememberstates,atthetimetherewere

severaleconomic,politicalandsocialincentivesthat madetheagreement

desirable.

TheMERCOSURintegrationprocesshasnotbeenstraightforwardor

simple.Inadditiontothealreadycomplexinternalagenda,MERCOSUR,asan

openregionalprocess,hasmaintainedabusynegotiationagendawiththird

countries.Withinthisframework,MERCOSURmembercountrieshavesigned

FreeTradeAgreements(FTAs)withallSouthAmericanSpanishspeaking

countriesand with othercountries beyondtheregion,such asIsrael.

MERCOSURhasalsosignedPreferentialTradeAgreements(PTAs)withLatin

AmericanIntegrationAssociation(ALADI)memberstates,suchasCubaand

Mexico1,andwithIndiaandtheSouthernAfricanCustomsUnion(SACU).

Notwithstandingthisprogress withregardtoagreements withthird

countries,andafterdiscontinuingFreeTradeAreaoftheAmericas(FTAA)

negotiations,theonlypendingNorthSouthnegotiationswerethosewiththe

EU.Thesenegotiationsalsohadthepeculiarityofbeinganegotiationprocessfor

anagreementbetweentwoblocsofcountries,whichintroducednewcomplexities

arisingfromthepeculiaritiesoftheproductionandtradestructuresofthe

participatingcountriesandfromthecharacteristicsoftherespectiveblocs

TradingwithGiants:IsTradePolicywiththeEUandChinaBeneficialtoMERCOSUR? 283  

socioeconomicdevelopmentpolicies.Atpresent,theprocesshasgroundtoahalt

andnoagreementhadbeenreachedbythedateagreedfor2004.However,the

learningcurveinitiatedinthiswayhasproveduseful.

Withinthisframework andtakinginto accounttheabovementioned

negotiationexperiencesandtheemergenceofChinaasaglobalplayer,itis

importanttoanalysetheprospectsofincreasingtradewiththisother“giant”of

theworldeconomy.Theobjectiveofthischapteristoreflectonthepotential

opportunitiesand challenges ofstrengthenedtraderelationships between

MERCOSUR,theEUandChina.Forsuchpurposes,inSection2ofthischapter

themaincharacteristicsofMERCOSURarepresentedandthemostimportant

restrictivefactorswithregardtoreachingagreementwiththeEUanalysed.

Furthermore,tradingpatternsareidentifiedandgenerallytheprospectsof

increasedtradewithChinaareexamined.Thechapterendswithsomegeneral

reflectionsonMERCOSURsnegotiatingexperienceswiththeEU,whichmay

proveusefulforaneventualstrengtheningoftraderelationswithChina.

2.犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚牶犕犪犻狀犆犺犪狉犪犮狋犲狉犻狊狋犻犮狊

MERCOSURisanintegrationprocessbetweenfourSouthAmericancountries

withtheobjectiveofestablishingaCommonMarket.The1991TreatyofAsunción

wasthelegalconstitutiveinstrumentforthecreationofMERCOSURandits

mainobjectivesincluded:theintegrationofthefourmemberstatesthroughfree

circulationofgoods,servicesandproductionfactors;theestablishmentofa

commonexternaltariff;andtheadoptionofacommontradepolicytowardsthird

parties;thecoordinationofmacroeconomicandsectoralpolicies;andthe

harmonisationofthecountrieslegalframeworksinkeyareas.

MERCOSURhasapopulationofabout247.4million,aGDPofUSD1,200

billionandanexportvolumeofapproximatelyUSD190billion(2006).Thesize

oftheterritories,theirpopulationsandtheparticipationofthefourmembersin

theeconomicandcommercialactivitiesoftheblocshowlargeasymmetries.

Brazilaccountsfor67percentofthetotalproductionoftheblocand80percent

oftheinhabitants.Althoughthefoureconomiesinthegrouphavebeenclassified

asmiddleincomepercapita,ArgentinahasaGNIpercapitaofUSD12,990,

UruguayofUSD11,040,BrazilofUSD9,370andParaguayofUSD4,380(2007

adjustedbyPPP).

In2006,MERCOSURexportedgoodsworthatotalofUSD190billion,

whichrepresents1.6percentofworldgoodsexports.Nonregionalmarkets

captured87percentoftheblocsexports(threequartersbymid1990s).These

marketshaveincreasedtheirparticipationinrecentyearssinceexportstothese

284   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

destinationsgrewby10percentayearonaverage,equivalentto2.5times

quickerthanexportstotheregion.Exportmarketsareconcentratedtosome

extent:66percentoftotalblocexportsgotothetop10markets(withthe

USA,theEUandChinaontop,accountingfor20.7percent,18.3percentand

7.6 per cent,respectively).Import markets of origin are even more

concentrated,ledbytheEU,theUSAandChina(20.7percent,20.0percent

and8.7percent,respectively,incurrentdollars,2007).Overthepastfew

yearstheMERCOSURexportstructurehasseenincreasedparticipationfrom

lesstraditionalmarketsoutsidetheregion(perhapsinfluencedbysubstantial

changesinrelativeprices).ExportstoChinaandRussiarosetoanannual

averageof27percentbetween2002and2006,whileexportstotheUSAandEU

grewby9percentand13percent,respectively.

RegardingtherelativeimportanceofMERCOSURasanexporter,wecan

seethatitisthetenthrankingEUsupplier(2.5percentoftotalEUimports)

andamongthetop15USsuppliers(2percentoftotalUSimports).Ithasa

similarshareofChineseimports(2percent).Theblocsexportbasketis

concentratedontheagriculturalsector,especiallyfood.Animalandvegetable

productsandfoodrepresentedmorethanonethirdofthetotalamountexported

tocountriesoutsidetheregionin2006.Mineralsandfuelsrepresented16per

cent,commonmetals(10percent),machinery(9percent)andvehiclesand

transportequipment(9percent).Itisworthmentioningthestrongregional

positionofsoyaoil(74percentofworldtrade),orangejuice(65percent),

flourandsoyapellets(54percent),soyagrains(44percent),bovinefrozen

meat(43percent),ethylalcohol(37percent)andsugarcane(33percent),

amongotherthings(Garbarinoetal.2008).

Regardingtheintegrationprocess,in1995theconstructionoftheCustoms

UnionstartedwiththesigningoftheOuroPretoProtocolandthedefinitionofa

CommonExternalTariff,afterafirststageofacceleratedtariffcutsamongthe

fourmemberstates,duringwhichtheFreeTradeAreawasconsolidated.Ouro

PretoalsolaiddownthepresentinstitutionalstructureofMERCOSUR.

WorkingoutaCommon TradePolicyisnotasimpletaskandthe

MERCOSURprocesscouldnotavoidcomplexity.Nevertheless,MERCOSUR

hasmadeprogressinthenegotiationprocesstowardseliminatingthedouble

collectionoftheCommonExternalTariffthroughtheapprovalofDecisionCMC

54/04andDecisionCMCNo37/05,andhasmaintainedthedefinitionofSpecial

CommonRegimensandaCommonCustomsCodeintheregionalnegotiationagenda.In

additiontocustomsandcommercialissues,MERCOSURhasmadeprogressinother

social,politicalandproductionareas.Forinstance,MERCOSURhasconstituteda

TradingwithGiants:IsTradePolicywiththeEUandChinaBeneficialtoMERCOSUR? 285  

Parliament,aSocialInstituteandaPermanentRevisionTribunal.

3.犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚犪狀犱狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犝狀犻狅狀

3.1!PotentialGainsandRisks

AlthoughabilateralapproachbetweentheEuropeanUnionandtheLatin

AmericancountriesstartedwiththeSanJosémeetingsin1984,itisinthe1990s

thattheEuropeanCommunityassumedamoreactiveroleinthesearchfor

cooperationandassociationagreementswithvariousLatinAmericanintegration

processes.Thisinterestcoincidedwiththestrengtheningintegrationprocesses

alreadyexistingintheregionandwiththeconstitutionofpromisingnew

initiatives,suchasMERCOSUR.Italsotookplacewithintheframeworkofthe

socalled“GlobalEuropeanIntegrationModel”thatpromotedcountryrelations

beyondcommercialconsiderationsandinthedirectionofpoliticaldialogue,as

wellascooperation.

ItiswithinthisframeworkthattheEU and MERCOSURsignedan

InterregionalFrameworkCooperationAgreementinDecember1995,inwhich

theyexpressedtheirintentiontoformalisecooperationagreementsandto

advanceinthenegotiationsinordertoestablishatradepartnershipagreement

contemplatingreciprocaltradeliberalisationinaccordancewithGATTArticle

24.Itisalsoimportanttonotethatin1995MERCOSURstarteditstransitional

processtowardsaCustomsUnionaftertheOuroPretomeeting.Althoughthere

wereexpressionsofinterestonthepartoftheEUaboutsigningagreementswith

MERCOSURimmediatelyafterthesigningoftheTreatyofAsunción1991,thesigning

oftheInterregionalAgreementwasmadepossiblebytheinternationallegalpersonality

conferredonMERCOSURbyArticle34oftheProtocolofOuroPerto.

ThenegotiationsbetweentheEU and MERCOSURstartedin1999,

coincidingwithanotherhistoricaleventintheEU,theestablishmentofthe

MonetaryUnion.Thesenegotiationswerecomplicatedbythefactthatthey

involvedtwoCustomsUnions,withtheirowninternalconflictsofinterest

concerningtheestablishmentofacommontradepolicy,andalsobecauseofthe

NorthSouthaspect.Althoughtheagreementwasgivenconsiderableemphasis,

itwasnotthefirstagreementbetweentwoCustom Unions:theEuropean

CommunityandtheAndeanCommunityhadalreadyestablishedanarrangement

ofsimilarnatureinApril1993.

Fromaneconomicpointofview,inparticulartradeopportunities,the

agreementwaspromotedbecausethetwomarketsareimportanttooneanother.

TheEuropeanUnionisamarketofover490millionpeople,thethirdmost

286   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

populousmarketintheworldafterIndiaandChina,withaGDPpercapitaof

overUSD22,000inPPP(EU27).Atthesametime,itisMERCOSURssecond

largesttradepartner,aftertheUnitedStates.Morethan19percentoftotal

worldtrade(importsandexports)iscarriedoutfromandtotheEU.Exportsto

theEUrepresentmorethan18percentofMERCOSURstotalexportsand

almost21percentofitsimports.Inturn,theEUisoneofthemostimportant

investorsinMERCOSUR (Eurostat2007).Morethan70percentofgoods

exportedtotheEUareprimarygoods,mainlyagriculturalproductsandenergy.

AlthoughMERCOSURhasanattractiveconsumermarketofabout247million

people,ithasnotyetpassedthethresholdof2.5percentoftotalEUexports,which

areconcentratedonmachinery,chemicalsandtransportequipment,whichrepresent

about70percentoftotalEUimports.However,theEUsinterestinMERCOSURis

alsogeopolitical,besidesthefactthatitisanimportantcommoditysupplierandanEU

ForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)destination.

Fromatheoreticalperspective,andasitisaNorthSouthagreement

betweeneconomieswithrelativelycomplementaryproductivestructures,itwas

expectedthatanEUMERCOSURregionalliberalisationagreementwouldcause

arealignmentofbloc membersproductionstructures,includingsectoral

contractionsandexpansions,andthatitwouldpromotea moreefficient

allocationofproductionfactors.Thiswouldstimulateregionalproductionand

tradespecialisationinaccordancewiththerespectivecomparativeadvantages.

Thiswouldimproveefficiencyasaconsequenceofeconomiesofscale,besides

moredynamicgains.

Allthingsbeingequal,itwasexpectedthatstaticgains(tradecreation)and

dynamicgains(efficiencyandproductivitygains,moreeconomicgrowthand

attractionofinvestments)wouldexceedthepossibleeconomiccostsofthe

process (tradediversionsamongthem),andthatadequatepoliciescould

compensatethepossiblelossesofsomecountriesorgroupsaffectedbythe

integrationprocess,witharesultingincreaseofglobalwellbeing.

SomeempiricalfindingsaboutthepossibleimpactsofanFTAbetween

MERCOSURandtheEUsupportthistheory.Mostimpactanalyseshavebeen

carriedoutusingmodelsofcomputablegeneralequilibrium (CGE)basedon

optimisationmethods.Ingeneral,studieshaveobtainedpositiveresultsforboth

blocs.InthecaseofMERCOSUR,theSIAMERCOSUR(2007)researchfinds

thatfullliberalisation—ofbothgoodsandservices—betweentheblocswould

haveapositivestaticeconomicresultof0.5percentofGDPforArgentina,1.5

percentforBrazil,2.1percentforUruguayandupto10percentforParaguay.

Inthisstudy,gainsofastaticcharactercamefromtheexpansionofsectorsin

TradingwithGiants:IsTradePolicywiththeEUandChinaBeneficialtoMERCOSUR? 287  

whichMERCOSURhascomparativeadvantages,incontrasttotheEU,asa

consequenceofthecomplementaritybetweentheblocs.However,decreases

wouldbeobservedintextiles,thecelluloseindustry,thechemicalindustry,

metals,automobilesandmachineryingeneral.Thepositiveeffectsofefficiency

asaconsequenceofopeninguptocompetitionandattractionofinvestmentwould

generateaglobalwelfaregainforbothblocs.

Otherstudies,such as Diao,Díaz Bonilla and Robinson (2001),

MonteagudoandWatanuki(2001),aswellasGiordanoandWatanuki(2001)—

despiteusingdatafrompriortothecrisisbywhichsomeMERCOSURcountrieswere

affectedbetween1999and2001andnotincludingtheEU25—showsimilarresults.

Themethodologyemployedalsoreferstomultiregionalandmultisectorgeneral

equilibriummodels,asconstitutingtheclassicstructureofastaticCGEmodel.

Althougheachstudyintroduceddifferentadaptationstothebasicmodel,

globalresultsgointhesamedirection,andshowanincreaseinrealGDPof

between0.7percentand7.7percentforArgentinaandbetween1.3percent

and4percentforBrazil.Inturn,exportstotheEUwouldincrease,dependingon

theparticularstudy,bybetween4percentand13percentforBrazilandArgentina

jointly.SpecificstudiesforParaguayandUruguayshowsimilarresults.

Accordingtotheresultsofsimulations,arangeofimpactsonMERCOSURsectors

maybeexpected.Wewouldobtainpositiveresultsinprimaryagriculturalgoods

sectors(vegetablesandfruits,cerealsandsugar,amongothers)andinthefood

industry(especiallymeatanditsderivatives,aswellasdairyproducts).Amongthe

mainpotentialnegativeeffectswecanexpectpotentialjoblossesinseveralareas

ofmanufacturing(forexample,automobiles,chemicals,electronicandcomputer

products)andofheavyindustry(capitalgoods),mainlyinBrazilandArgentina.

Inthelongterm,theseeffectsmightbebeneficialintermsofjobsandincome,

aslongasthemarketsoperatewithacertainflexibilityandgovernments

implementpoliciestosupportthedecliningsectors.

TheresultsareconsistentwiththecurrentNorthSouthtradestructure

whichinvolveslittleintraindustrialtradeandinwhichEUexportgoodsare

concentratedintechnologyandskilledlabour,andMERCOSURiscompetitivein

agriculturalandprimarygoodsingeneral.

Inanycase,themotivesforsigningtheagreementwerenotconfinedto

marketaccessforthetwoblocsstrategicproducts.Otheraspectsshouldbe

highlighted.Forexample,beforesigningtheFrameworkAgreementwiththe

EuropeanUnion,theUnitedStateshadalreadyproposedanagreementwith

MERCOSURalongsidethedecisiontostartnegotiationsforahemispheric

agreementtakenattheMiamiSummitin1994.Thisinitiative,thefirstofits

288   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

kindinvolvingMERCOSURinaNorthSouthcontext,mightpartlyexplaina

certain“dominoeffect”(Baldwin1993).Inthissense,thedesiretosigntrade

agreementsarisesfromtheinternalpoliticalbalancewithineachcountryortrade

bloc,wherethebalancebetweenforcesfavouringoragainsttheagreementmight

determineadecisiontoseekprogressinregionalliberalisation.Tradeagreements

signedbythirdcountriesmayleadtoasituationinwhichthedamageperceived

byproagreementexportersisstrongenoughtoalterthebalanceofforces,as

theyperceiveacommercialdisadvantageinagrowingnumberofmarkets,

withoutobviatingthegeopoliticalincentivesinthedevelopmentofinternational

policy,especiallyinlargecountries.OntheMERCOSURside,thesigningof

theFrameworkAgreementbetweentheEUandtheAndeanCommunitycreated

ariskoftradedeviationwithregardtosomeMERCOSURgoods.

Ontheotherhand,takingintoaccountMERCOSURsstructureandprotection

levels,thehemisphericfreetradeagreementgeneratedtheriskoftradedeviationto

goodswithregardtowhichtheUnitedStateshadaregional,althoughnotaglobal

comparativeadvantage.Thus,anFTAwiththeEUmay,tosomeextent,promotea

positiveeffectoftradecreationandreducethenegativeeffectsofthetransferenceof

protectiontogoodsfromtheNorthAmericaneconomies.

Besidestheseeconomicarguments,andasBouzas(2004)mentions,the

agreementwiththeEU meantthatthe MERCOSUR wouldhaveexplicit

CustomsUnionrecognitionasakeyplayerintheinternationaltradesystem.

Secondly,theMERCOSURcountriesfelttheysharemorevalueswiththesense

ofCommunity with which Europehaspromoteditseconomicandsocial

integrationthanwithamorecommerciallyorientedarrangement,liketheone

promotedbytheNorthAmericanFreeTradeAgreement(NAFTA)andFTAA.

Regardlessoftheimportanceoftheseandotherincentives,theyshowed

thatimportantproblemsandtensionstypicalofanagreementbetweentwo

regionalblocsexistedandthatthey wouldhaveemergedassoonasthe

negotiationswereinitiated.

3.2!SensitiveIssuesandtheSituationofthePotential"Losers#

Inordertochecktheresultsforecastbyneoclassicalinternationaltrade

theoryitisnecessaryalsotoverifythemarketequilibriumhypotheses.Models

basedonneoclassicaltheoryassumethatmarketsworkefficiently,whichmeans

thatnoinformationasymmetriesexistbetweeneconomicagents,andthatprices

andreturnsfromproductionfactorsmustbeflexibleenoughtoadjustsupplyto

demand,whilemarketsofgoods,productionfactorsandfinance mustbe

“complete”andadjustinstantly.However,theseconditionsarefarfrom

TradingwithGiants:IsTradePolicywiththeEUandChinaBeneficialtoMERCOSUR? 289  

observablereality.Marketflawsaremuchmorethanexceptionstothegeneral

rulesofeconomics,andnationaleconomicpolicydecisions,aswellasthe

characteristicsofnationalinstitutionsaffecttheresultsofeconomicdecisionsina

varietyofways.Withinthisframework,theresultsautomaticallyexpectedfrom

anintegrationprocessmaynotoccur.Furthermore,eveninputativeperfectly

competitivemarkets,thedistributionofcostsandbenefitsduringanintegration

processisnothomogeneous,eitheramongparticipatingcountriesoramongthe

variouseconomicplayers.Thepossibilityofcorrectingthissituationbymeansof

interregionalcompensationpoliciescollideswiththerealityofinstitutional

constraintsandthelegitimateinterestsofthedifferentpressuregroupswithin

thecountriesconcerned.Therefore,conclusionsobtainedbypositiveeconomic

analysisconflictwiththelimitationsofpoliticaleconomy.

However,thepositiveimpactpredictedbyneoclassicalmodelswithregardto

economicgrowthandglobalexportsafterbilateralliberalisation,donotspecifically

accountforthecostsoftheadjustmentstobemadeinthelabourmarketandother

factorscausedbychangesintheproductionstructuresandgeneratedbythenewtrade

patternthatemergedfromliberalisation.Theseadjustmentcostswouldapplyaslong

asinstitutionalandstructuralmarketrigiditiesexist.

Thecomplexityoftheseprocessesandthemultiplicityofinterestsimplya

needtointerpretdifficultiesandconflictsintermsofpoliticaleconomy.Inthis

sense,regionalintegrationgoesbeyondthemaximisationofpotentialgainsand

amountstoastrategicprocessinwhichaspectsofpoliticaleconomyconcerning

adjustmentcostsandthestructuraltransformationoftheeconomiesconcerned

mustbetakenintoaccount.Amongthetensionslikelytoarise,wemight

mentiontheadjustmentoflabourmarketsandpoliticallobbyingcarriedoutby

sensitiveeconomicsectors,whichfunctionasimportantpressuregroups.

Tradebetweenthe EU and MERCOSUR showspatternsofclassic

comparativeadvantage;italsohasa markeddegreeofcomplementarity.

Analysisofthecharacteristicsofproductionsectorsandtradewithinthetwo

blocksshowsthatinsomeareastherearenoglobalcomparativeadvantages,due

toprotectionwithintheregionalmarket.Thatistosay,thesearegoodsor

sectorswhosetradehasdeviatedfromtherestoftheworldandwhoseinterest

groups(countriesandsectors)perceivetheregionalmarketasparticularly

important.Suchsectors,togetherwithseveralsectorsthatsubstituteimports,

havestrategicimportanceingovernmentdevelopmentpoliciesandaresupported

byimportantpoliticalandsocialgroups.

Pressure(lobby)groupsconstitutedaroundthesesectorsareusuallysmall,

butwellorganisedandinformedandhavethecapacitytoinfluencepolitical

290   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

decisionsandshapepublicopinion,sometimesmakinganationalcauseoutof

theirinterests.Inturn,therestofthepopulation,basicallycomprising

consumers,isdispersedandlacksselfconsciousnessasaninterestgroup,

althoughitisofcoursefarmorenumerous.Therefore,nationalprotection

policiesgenerallyfocusonsectorswhichhavenocomparativeadvantages.Thisis

tosomeextentthecasewithEuropesagriculturalsectors.

Negotiationsbetween MERCOSURandtheEUformallycommencedin

1999,oncetheInterregionalAgreementwasratified,andafter16negotiating

roundswerestillexperiencingdifficultieswhichhavehamperedfurtherprogress.

Theagreementcanbedividedintothree“pillars”(Torrent2005):political

dialogue,cooperationandtrade.Withoutenteringintodetailsabouttariffcut

proposalssubmittedbytheEU,theseproposalswerefounddifficulttoacceptbythe

MERCOSURcountries.Thisrefers,amongotherthings,tothelackoffull

liberalisationoftariffsforsomesensitiveagriculturalgoods,subjecttospecifictariffs

and/orminimumentrypricestotheEUmarket.Thesegoodsareofkeyconcernto

MERCOSUR,suchascereals,rice,dairyproducts,bovinemeat,poultry,sugarand

tobacco.MERCOSURisaworldleaderintheproductionofmanyofthesegoodsandit

hasglobalcomparativeadvantagesformostofthem(seeTable1).

犜犪犫犾犲1 犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚犘狉狅犱狌犮狋狊狑犻狋犺犚犲犾犪狋犻狏犲犆狅犿狆犪狉犪狋犻狏犲犃犱狏犪狀狋犪犵犲狊

Harmonised

Standard(HS)

Product

World

participation

2006

RCAI

12+15+23 Grains,oilsandpellets(sunflowerandsoya) 49.6 31.24

0201+0202 Bovinemeat 23.1 14.56

17 Sugarandconfectionersarticles 22.7 14.32

09 Coffee,tea,herbsandspices 14.6 9.19

26 Minerals,slagsandashes 12.2 7.69

41 Skinsandleathers 10.9 6.84

24 Tobaccoandelaboratedtobacco 7.9 5.01

10+11 Cereals,flours,etc. 7.3 4.62

44+47+48 Wood,woodpaste,paperandcardboard 2.9 1.82

Source:Garbarinoetal.2008:46.

Inthissense,accordingtoQuijano(2008:178),“thefourMERCOSUR

countriesexportfoodtothe EU,whereinexchange,importantglobal

TradingwithGiants:IsTradePolicywiththeEUandChinaBeneficialtoMERCOSUR? 291  

distortionsoccurasaconsequenceofEuropeanagriculturalpolicies”.Therefore,

theproblemisnotonlymarketaccess,butalsosubsidiesandinternalsupport,

whichtendtodistortworldmarkets,sincetheEUoperatesasonebigcountry

andMERCOSURisapricetaker.

犜犪犫犾犲2 犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚狊犘狅狊犻狋犻狅狀犪狊犪狀犈狓狆狅狉狋犲狉

Product Worldtradeposition Productionposition

Food Bovinemeat 1st 1st(20%ofworldstocks)

Flourand

soyapellets

1st(54%ofworldexports) 1st(51%ofworldproduction

and41%ofworldsownarea)

Soyaoil 1st(74%ofworldexports) 1st(and1stinsoyaflour),

34%ofworldproduction

Sugar 33%ofworldexports 1stcoffeeandsugar

Coffee 19%ofworldexports

Orangejuice 1st(65%ofworldexports) 1st

Sunfloweroil 19%ofworldexports 4th(14%ofworldproduction)

Bioenergy Bioethanol 1st 2nd(42%ofworldproduction)

Source:Garbarinoetal.2008:48.

Althoughtheagriculturalissueisakeyproblem,theremaybeother

difficultiesbeforeagreementisreached.Thesemayinclude:

(1)NewcountriesenteringtheEU:countriesthataremainlyagricultural

producersandMERCOSURscompetitorsforEUfinancialresources,which

havefewculturallinkswiththeregion.

(2)Issuesbeyondthescopeoftariffcutsshoweddivergences,suchas

governmentpurchasing,geographicaldenominationandintellectualproperty.

Furthermore,theexistenceoftariff“peaks”andtariffcontingents,export

subsidiesandothermeasuresofsectoralprotectionmadenegotiationsdifficult,

mainlybecausetheyarenotusedbyMERCOSUR,andsoinanyofferoftariff

reliefitsmarketswillremainfullyopen,establishingaschemecharacterisedby

an“asymmetriclackofprotection”.

(3)The“singleundertaking”negotiationmodality:onedissentingissue

alonehamperstheprogressofthewholeagreement.

(4)ThedemiseofFTAA,lessprospectofprogressonaMERCOSURUS

agreementandthefailureoftheDohaRound,allofwhichmightreduceinterest

intheEUMERCOSURagreement.

(5)AccordingtoCienfuegos(2008),adebateisgoingonconcerningtheEUs

292   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

InterregionalForeignPolicyDoctrine(regiontoregionrelations)intermsofwhichthe

negotiationofagreementswithstrategicsubregionalblocs(MERCOSUR,CAN,

SICAandsoon)isgivenpreference.Anumberofvoicesarestartingtodefendthe

optionofbilateralnegotiationwithselectedstrategiccountries.

(6)AmongtheEUinstitutionstherearemultipledissentingplayers.For

instance,theEuropeanParliamentsupportedthecessationofnegotiationswith

MERCOSUR,settingitapartfromtheDohaRound,whiletheDirectorate

General(DG)onTradedefendedDohamultilateralnegotiationsasapriority.

DGAgriculturesupportedthemaintenanceoftheCommonAgriculturalPolicy

(CAP)without modifications,whilethe GD Relex (ExternalRelations)

proposedthestrengtheningofcooperationpillarsandpoliticaldialogue.There

arealsoimportantdifferencesbetweenthememberstates(Cienfuegos2008).

ThefourMERCOSURmemberstatesarenothomogeneouseither,making

bloctoblocnegotiationsdifficult,sincelegitimateinterestsdonotnecessarily

coincide.Thishappens,amongotherreasons,becauseinSouthSouthagreementsthe

costsoftradediversiontendtofocusonthelessdevelopedcountries(inrelationtothe

mostdevelopedpartner),whichsufferdeindustrialisationasaconsequenceof

openingtheirmarketstomanufacturedproductsfrommoredevelopedcommercial

partners.Thosepartnershavearelativelyhighercapitallabourendowment.

Lessdevelopedcountriestendtoexperiencetradediversiontowardstheimports

ofitslargerpartnerandbecomelesscompetitiveintheseproducts(Venables

2003,2005).Inthissense,thesecountriessufferatwofoldcost:thelossof

theirlimitedmanufacturingsectorsandtradediversion.Inpart,thisiswhat

MoncarzandVaillant(2006)showafteranalysinginterregionaltradepatterns.

Accordingtothisanalysis,incentivestothesmallerpartnersmayoperateinaNorth

Southagreement,whichwouldhelptoreducethetradediversioncostswithinthebloc,

butitwouldreducepartoftheimplicitprotectionforsomeofthemoreindustrialised

regionalproductswhichbenefitfromtheprotectionoftheagreement.

4.犜犺犲犈犿犲狉犵犲狀犮犲狅犳犆犺犻狀犪犪狊犪犌犾狅犫犪犾犘犾犪狔犲狉犪狀犱犐狋狊犜狉犪犱犲狑犻狋犺犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚

Atthispointinthetwentyfirstcentury,therecanbenodoubtaboutthe

globalriseoftheChineseeconomy,intermsofbothproductionandtrade,FDI,

innovationandparticipationinglobalfinancialmarkets.

MERCOSURisincreasinglybeingaffectedbyChinasincreasingeconomic

influence.Whilein1990MERCOSURexportedtoChinaabout1.5percentof

itstotalexports,by2007theChinesemarketcapturedaround11.2percentof

totalexports.Likewise,MERCOSURimportsfromChinarosefrom0.8per

centin1990to15percentin2007.However,theeffectofChinabeingthe

TradingwithGiants:IsTradePolicywiththeEUandChinaBeneficialtoMERCOSUR? 293  

secondlargestworldeconomyintermsofforeigntradevolumegoesbeyondthese

figures,becauseitsgrowingimportanceinthirdmarketshasgeneratedeffectson

globalaggregateddemandwhichhaschangedexportpricesandaffectedtermsof

traderelationshipsinLatinAmerica.

Fromtheperspectiveofdynamicanalysis,theChinesemarketisstill

smallerthantheEUmarketasadestinationforMERCOSURexports,butinthe

pastfewyearsthebalancehasbeguntochangeinthedirectionofChina,which

hasbecomethemostrapidlygrowingmarketforMERCOSURexports.

犉犻犵狌狉犲1 犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋狅犳犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚犈狓狆狅狉狋犇犲狊狋犻狀犪狋犻狅狀狊

  Source:Garbarinoetal.2008:45.

Forthepurposeoforderingtheanalysisandfocusingontradelinks,wecan

trytounderstandtheimportanceoftrade with Chinainthreedifferent

dimensions:(1)ChinasincreasingdemandforMERCOSURexports;(2)

ChinasincreasingexportstoMERCOSURcountries;(3)Chinasdisplacement

ofMERCOSURexportstothirdmarkets.

WhiletheincreaseinChinesedemandpresentsanopportunityforgrowthto

certainMERCOSURsectors,ontheotherhand,importsfromChina,although

theybenefitconsumersandsomeproductionsectors,alsorepresentathreatto

localcompanies.Likewise,theemergenceofChinaasaglobalplayerin

internationalmarketstendstoaffectMERCOSURexportpatterns.Thissimple

andpreliminaryoutlookissufficienttomakeitclearthatthestrengtheningof

currenttrendswouldgenerateascenariooflosersandwinners,whichcallsfora

moredetailedimpactassessment.

BasedonaWorldBankstudybyLedermanetal.(2007b:Chapter12),we

canidentifyanumberofimpactsonproductionsectorsandproductionfactors,as

wellasatthesubregionallevel.TheWorldBankstudytriestoassesstheextent

294   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

towhichChinasandIndiasgrowthareaffectingthetradespecialisationpatterns

ofLatin Americaandthe Caribbean,basedona Revealed Comparative

Advantage(RCA)index(Vollrath1991).Theauthorsexaminesubregionsand

distinguishtheSouthernCone(SC),whichincludesBrazil,Argentina,Uruguay

andChile.AlthoughthisdoesnotreferspecificallytoMERCOSURassuch,the

aggregationisusefultohelpinfertheblocsbroadertendencies.

First,theresultsofthisstudyshowthatChinasandtheSouthernCones

tradespecialisation patternsbetween1990 and2004 evolvedin opposite

directions,which wouldindicatesomeprogresstowardsagreaterexport

complementarityinsteadofmorecompetitioninthesameproducts.Inthis

sense,theWorldBanksstudyshowsthat,in1990,ChinaandtheSouthern

Conehadrelativecomparativeadvantageinnineandeightsectors,respectively,

groupedatthreedigitsfromtheInternationalStandardIndustrialClassification

(ISIC),andwerematchedinfoursectors:logging,fishing,crudepetroleumand

foodmanufacturing.Aftera15yearterm,duringwhichthespecialisationpatterns

changedandprogressivelyshowedaclearnegativecorrelation,wecanseethat,while

thechangeswererelativelysmallintheSouthernCone,Chinachangedsignificantly,

losingrelativecomparativeadvantageinprimarysectorcommodities(agriculture,

fishing,loggingandmining)andgainingitinmanufacturing.

Seekingthefactorsthatproducedtheseresults,theauthorsanalysed

productionsectorsandreachedsomeinterestingconclusions.WhiletheSouthern

Conespecialisedinnaturalresourceexports,Chinaspecialised mainlyin

manufacturing.AgroupofsectorsemergesinwhichtheSouthernConedidnot

improveitspositioningininternationalmarkets,whileChinawaslosingrelative

comparativeadvantageinparticularareas.ThiswouldindicatethattheSouthern

Conelostoutinrespectoftheopportunitiespresentedinthisnewscenario.For

othersectors,therelativecomparativeadvantagecorrelationwouldbepositive

(roomforcompetition)orneutral(doesnotshowadefinitetendency).

犜犪犫犾犲3 犆犺犪狀犵犲狊犻狀犛狅狌狋犺犲狉狀犆狅狀犲犛狆犲犮犻犪犾犻狊犪狋犻狅狀犘犪狋狋犲狉狀狊

SCRCAIIncreases

ChinaRCAIstableovertime ChinaRCAIdecreasesovertime

none

220CrudePetroleum&Gas

311FoodManufacturing1

313BeverageIndustries

385Professionalandscientific

TradingwithGiants:IsTradePolicywiththeEUandChinaBeneficialtoMERCOSUR? 295  

Positivetrendorabscenceofatrend

121Forestry 353Petroleumrefineries

122Logging 354Miscell.petroleumpr

130Fishing 355Rubberproducts

210CoalMining 356Plasticproducts

323Leatherandproducts 362Glassandproducts

324Footwear 369Nonmetallicmineralps

331Woodandproducts 372Nonferrousbasicind.

341Paperandproducts 383Electricalmachinery

351Industrialchemicals 384Transportequipment

352Otherchemicalprod. 390Otherindustries

ChinaRCAIIncreases

SCRCAIstableovertime SCRCAIdecreasesovertime

332Furnitureandfixtures 312FoodManufacturing2

342Printingandproducts 314Tobacco

361Pottery,china&earthenware 321Textiles

381Fabricatedmetalproducts 322WearingApparel

382Machineryexceptelectric 371Ironandsteelbasic

ChinaRCAIdecreasesovertime

SCRCAIstableovertime

111Agriculture&livestock

113Hunting&trapping

230Metaloremining

290OtherMining

Source:BasedonLedermanetal.2007b:chapter12,table2.

Analysingthedevelopmentoftherelativecomparativeadvantageindexby

meansofeconometricregression,thestudyconcludesthatbilateraltradebetween

Chinaandtheregionhasnotbeensignificantenoughtoexplainthechangein

specialisationpatterns(possiblybecausethisbilateraltradehasnotyetreacheda

significantvolume,comparedtototaltrade).Inaddition,inthiseconometric

regressionthereweresomesignsofimpactonregionalproductionfactors.

Themostconclusiveaspectinthisrespectisthatlabour (theonly

statisticallysignificantvariable)—inparticular,lessskilledlabour—hasbeen

mostnegativelyaffectedbythechangesintradepatterns.Thisresultturnsout

296   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

tobeintuitivelyreasonable,sinceamongthemost“displaced”sectorsislabour

intensivemanufacturing(forexample,textilesandclothing),whichutilises

considerableunskilledlabour.

SomedescriptionsoftradeinthesesectorsshowstronggrowthinChinese

exportstoMERCOSURintextiles,clothingandfootwear,whichreinforcedthe

resultsmentionedabove.Inthefootwearsector,in1999,importstotheregion

accountedfor93percentoftotalChineseimports,whilein2006they

representedonly71percent.Intheclothingsector,in1999,importstothe

regionexceededChineseimportsby1.8times,whilein2006theybarelytotalled

72.7percentofChineseimports.Themostdramaticcase,however,istextiles,

sinceimportstotheregionexceededtheimportsofChinesefabricsby8.5times

in1999,butin2006theyweredowntoonly94percentofthem.Thetrendis

clear(SATSM2008).

Ontheotherhand,accordingtoUNCTAD (2005),intermsofdemand

composition,Chinasgrowth—withtheresultingincreaseinpercapitaincome

andstrongmigrationtothecities—hasprovokedachangeinfoodpreferences,

causingafurtherriseindemandforlivestockproducts,oilcrops,vegetableoils,

fruitandvegetables,aswellasariseintheuseofenergy,productsinwhich

LatinAmericaishighlycompetitive.

5.犆狅狀犮犾狌犱犻狀犵犚犲犿犪狉犽狊

Inlightofthegeneralconsiderationsabouttraderelationsbetween

MERCOSURandtheEUpresentedabove,whichemphasisednegotiationsonan

FTAandthecharacteristicsoftradepatternsbetweenMERCOSURandChina,

itispossibletodrawanumberofconclusions.

AslongasthespecialisationofChineseexportsadvancestowards more

comparativeadvantagesinsectors with morevalueadded (ahighdegreeof

transformation)andleavesmoreroomforsectorsmoreintensiveinnaturalresources,

theEU,duetoitsdevelopmentstrategy(littlerelatedtoitsresources),hasbeen

inclinedtoprotectthissectorofitseconomy.InEurope,therearenoticeable

differencesbetweentheproductionpatternsofitsmemberstates,andthusto

onepartofitsagriculturalproduction(concentratedincertaincountries)the

intraregionalmarketisveryimportant.Ontheotherhand,theCAPandits

basiscontinuetobeimportanttoEUsocioeconomicpolicyandtoits“collective

consciousness”.ThiselementisnotpresentwithregardtoChina,where,onthe

contrary,theneedtoensurecertainminimumlevelsoffoodprovision,raw

materialsandenergymaygeneratetradeopportunitiesandchancesforthe

creationofproductionchainsbetweentheMERCOSURcountriesandChina.

TradingwithGiants:IsTradePolicywiththeEUandChinaBeneficialtoMERCOSUR? 297  

Inthisrespect,awidevarietyofchallengesandopportunitieswouldarise

fromanytraderelationship,sincethegroupoflosersandwinnersisdifferent,

andtherefore,potentialnegotiatingagendaswouldcorrespondtodifferent

objectivesandrestrictions.MERCOSURsnegotiationswiththeEUhavethe

additionaldifficultyoftryingtoreconciletheinterestsofmultiplepartnerswith

differentlevelsofsocioeconomicandtechnologicaldevelopment.Inthissense,

theMERCOSUREU negotiationexperienceisnotadirectreferencefora

possiblenegotiationprocessbetweenMERCOSURandChina.

Despitethis,andbeyondthedifferencesinthetraderelationshippatterns

between MERCOSURandChinaandtheEU andtheparalysingofEU

MERCOSURnegotiations,thereismuchtobelearntfromthisnegotiation

experience.Onefactorwasthatitwasanegotiationprocesswithaneconomy

manytimeslargerthanthatofMERCOSURinsizeandinexports.Itwasalsoa

processinwhichthepartnersaregeographicallydistantandverydifferent

culturallyspeaking,andinwhichasignificantpartofthereasonsfornegotiating

thistypeoftradeagreementistoavoidtradediversionsofthekindwhichmight

occurifthepartnersignedtradepreferenceagreementswiththirdcountries.

Moreover,andbeyondthedefinitionofMERCOSURsexternalagenda,

tradestatisticsshowthatEUpoliciesandtheemergenceofChinaintheglobal

marketarealreadychangingMERCOSURpatternsoftradespecialisationand

production.

WhatdoesthedeepeningoftraderelationswithChinameanforMERCOSUR?

TheChineseeconomysexponentialgrowthduringthepast15yearsandthestill

relativelyveryhighgrowthin20092010inthecontextofrecessioninthe

developedcountrieshasmaintainedahighlevelofdemandforrawmaterials,and

partlyrevaluedthe MERCOSUR exportprofile.Ithasalsostrengthened

MERCOSURspositionforothertradenegotiationprocesses,includingfurther

processeswiththeEU.

Similarly,Chinassignificantgrowthhasledtochangingtradepatterns

towardsthecreationofcomparativeadvantagesformanufacturedgoods,which

hasfosteredgreatercomplementarity withthe MERCOSUR countries.A

strengtheningoftradewithChinamayincreasegainsforMERCOSURsectors

whichhavetraditionallyhadcomparativeadvantageswithregardtoChina.

Likewise,a strongerrelationship with the Chinese market may enable

MERCOSURtotakeadvantageofopportunitiesincertainsectorsthatChinais

graduallyabandoningasitentersmoreadvancedstagesofproduction,atleast

duringtheperiodinwhichChinasaccelerateddevelopmentgeneratesgradually

higherlabourcosts.

298   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

Thisscheme wouldbringtotheregionatendencytowardsgreater

specialisationingoodsforsectorsstronglycommittedtotheuseofnatural

resources,suchasrawmaterials,foodandfuels.Butisthisthepatternthat

MERCOSURdesires?Asthedatashow,thestrongRCAsectorsoftheSouthern

Conearelowintensiveintermsoflabour,andthemorethreatenedsectorsare

thoserequiringmoreunskilledlabour,suchassectorsinwhichChinaisstilla

worldleaderandwhicharerelativelyjobsensitiveintheregion,suchastextiles

andclothing,automobilesandspareparts.Therefore,inapassivescenario,

therewouldbenegativepressureonthelabourmarketandnegativeimpactson

povertyindices.Likewise,thefactthattradespecialisationisbasicallylocatedin

thefoodsectormakesthissectortradableandexposesittointernationalprice

volatility.Aslongasinternationalpricesincreasetherewillbeanegativeimpact

onthecostofthebasicconsumptionbasketandthiswouldnegativelyaffectthe

mostunprotectedsocialgroups.

Whatshouldbedone?JustasinlessthantwodecadesChinastoppedbeingan

economybasedonarelativeabundanceoflabourandlowrealwages(andthereforea

highrealexchangerate),similarlyMERCOSURshouldpursuemediumtolongterm

policiestoenhancetheglobalcompetitivenessofsectorswithhighervalueadded,

thoughwithoutabandoningitsinternationalinsertionbasedontherelativeabundanceof

naturalresources.Thesestrategieswouldhavepositiveeffectsonthelabourmarket,

socialindicators,thebalanceofpayments(giventheinternationalpricevolatilityof

commodities)andtheenvironment.

Chinasexperienceprovidessomeinterestingreferences:productivitygains

arenotgeneratedbyclosinganeconomy,butbygraduallyandorderlyexposing

thetradesectortocompetition.Buttheproductivesectorsmustbepreparedfor

thischallenge.Improvingproductionfactors,designingadequateeducation

policies,anddevelopinginnovationandFDIattractionpoliciesareonlyafewof

themorerelevantfactors.Aneconomyscompetitivenessisalsoimprovedby

publicprivate,publicpublicand privateprivate cooperation (clusters and

productivevaluechains,forinstance,areanefficienttoolforimproving

competitiveness,togetherwiththeconditionsforlocaldevelopment).Such

policiesmayinvolveanationalbutalsoaregionaldimension,andthereforethe

articulationofproductionnetworksamongpublicinstitutionsseemsrelevantfor

themembersofMERCOSUR.

Finally,thereismuchroomforChinaandMERCOSURtocooperateand

shareexperiences.Therefore,cooperationisanotherstrategylikelytoproduce

significantresultsinthemediumterm.

TradingwithGiants:IsTradePolicywiththeEUandChinaBeneficialtoMERCOSUR? 299  

Notes

1.WiththeexceptionofUruguaywhichhassignedanFTAwithMexico.

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Lederman,D., M.Olarreaga and E.Rubiano (2007b),犔犪狋犻狀 犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狊 犜狉犪犱犲

犛狆犲犮犻犪犾犻狕犪狋犻狅狀犪狀犱犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱犐狀犱犻犪狊犌狉狅狑狋犺,WashingtonD.C.:TheWorldBank.

Mesquita,E.(2007),犜犺犲犖犲狑犃狆狆狉狅犪犮犺狅犳狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犝狀犻狅狀狋狅狑犪狉犱狊犕犲狉犮狅狊狌狉:犠犺犪狋

犐狊犫犲犺犻狀犱狋犺犲犔犪狌狀犮犺狅犳狋犺犲犛狋狉犪狋犲犵犻犮犘犪狉狋狀犲狉狊犺犻狆狑犻狋犺犅狉犪狕犻犾犪狀犱 犠犺犪狋犃狉犲犐狋狊

犆犺犪狀犮犲狊狅犳犅犲犻狀犵犈犳犳犲犮狋犻狏犲? Saarbruecken:SaarlandUniversity/FacultyofLawand

Economics.

Moncarz,P.andM.Vaillant(2006),犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚狊犚狅犾犲狅狀狋犺犲犚犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犘犪狋狋犲狉狀狊狅犳

犐犿狆狅狉狋狊狅犳犻狋狊犆狅狌狀狋狉狔犕犲犿犫犲狉狊:犃犇狔狀犪犿犻犮犘犪狀犲犾犇犪狋犪犃狆狆狉狅犪犮犺,ResearchPaper

Series,UniversityofNottingham.

Monteagudo,J.andM.Watanuki(2001),犚犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犜狉犪犱犲犃犵狉犲犲犿犲狀狋狊犳狅狉犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚:狋犺犲

犉犜犃犃犪狀犱狋犺犲犉犜犃狑犻狋犺狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犝狀犻狅狀,IADBseminar.

Quijano,J.M.(2008),MercosurylaUniónEuropea:balanceyperspectivas.犈狏犪犾狌犪犮犻ó狀,

犇犲狊犪犳í狅狊狔 犘狉狅狆狌犲狊狋犪.V Cumbre AméricaLatinayelCaribe—UniónEuropea,

Evaluación,desafíosypropuestas,Lima:CentroLatinoamericanoparalasRelaciones

conEuropa(CELARE).

Snchez,D.(2006),犈犾犻犿狆犪犮狋狅犱犲犆犺犻狀犪犲狀犃犿é狉犻犮犪犔犪狋犻狀犪:犗狆狅狉狋狌狀犻犱犪犱狅犪犿犲狀犪狕犪?,

Madrid:AnlisispublicadoporelRealInstitutoElcano.

SAT—SM(2008),犐犿狆狅狉狋犪犮犻狅狀犲狊犐狀狋狉犪狔犈狓狋狉犪犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚犱犲犆狅狀犳犲犮犮犻狅狀犲狊,犆犪犾狕犪犱狅狊狔

犜犲犼犻犱狅狊,SextoInformeSemestraldelaSecretaríadelMERCOSUR,5566.

SIAEUMERCOSUR(2007),犜狉犪犱犲犛犐犃狅犳狋犺犲犃狊狊狅犮犻犪狋犻狅狀犃犵狉犲犲犿犲狀狋狌狀犱犲狉犖犲犵狅狋犻犪狋犻狅狀

犫犲狋狑犲犲狀狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犆狅犿犿狌狀犻狋狔犪狀犱犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚,UniversityofManchester.

Torrent,R.(2005),犔犪狊犚犲犾犪犮犻狅狀犲狊犝狀犻狅狀犈狌狉狅狆犲犪—犃犿犲狉犻犮犪犔犪狋犻狀犪犲狀犾狅狊犾狋犻犿狅狊犇犻犲狕

犃狀狅狊:犈犾犚犲狊狌犾狋犪犱狅犱犲犾犪犐狀犲狓犻狊狋犲狀犮犻犪犱犲狌狀犪犘狅犾犻狋犻犮犪:犝狀犪狀犾犻狊犻狊犲犿狆í狉犻犮狅狔

犲狊狆犲狉犪狀狕犪犱狅,OBREAL/EULARO.

UNCTAD(2005),犜狉犪犱犲犪狀犱犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犚犲狆狅狉狋2005,UnitedNationsConferenceon

TradeandDevelopment.

Vaillant,M.(2007),Howto Rescuethe Trade AgreementbetweentheEU and

MERCOSUR,in:犜犺犲犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚犆犺犪犻狉犃狀狀狌犪犾犛犲犿犻狀犪犾,Paris:MERCOSURChair

ofSciencePo.

Venables,A.J.(2003),WinnersandLosersfromRegionalIntegrationAgreements,in:

犈犮狅狀狅犿犻犮犑狅狌狉狀犪犾,113,747761.

Venables,A.J.(2005),犚犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犇犻狊狆犪狉犻狋犻犲狊犻狀犚犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犅犾狅犮狊:犜犺犲狅狉狔犪狀犱犘狅犾犻犮狔,

Brazil:IADB.

! 301  

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉7

犗狆狆狅狉狋狌狀犻狋犻犲狊犪狀犱犆犺犪犾犾犲狀犵犲狊犉犪犮犻狀犵犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚

犻狀狋犺犲犆狅狀狋犲狓狋狅犳狋犺犲犉犻狀犪狀犮犻犪犾犆狉犻狊犻狊

B# 0#3<1,'A

1.犗狏犲狉狏犻犲狑狅犳犈犮狅狀狅犿犻犮犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚

1.1!BilateralTradeRelations

TraderelationsbetweenthePeoplesRepublicofChinaand member

countriesoftheSouthAmericanCommonMarket(MERCOSUR)datebackto

the1950s.Intheearly1960s,whenChinawasexperiencinggreatdifficulties,

grainmerchantsinArgentinadefiedtheeconomicembargoimposedbyWestern

countriesonChinatoconductconsiderablegraintransactionswithChina,

showingcouragewhichhassincebecomeafamiliartaleintheSinoLatin

Americantradecommunity.

Forhistoricalreasons,suchasalackofformaldiplomaticrelations,the

isolationofChinaseconomy,andthesufferingsoftheGreatLeapForwardand

theCulturalRevolutionbeforetheadoptionofamoreopenpolicy,tradebetween

ChinaandSouthAmericancountriesremainedatalowlevelforalongtime.As

lateastheearly1990s,tradebetweenChinaandMERCOSURstoodatamere

USD800million(1991).Despitetheaccelerationingrowth,itwasstillless

thanUSD5billionin2000.Inthelastdecadeofthetwentiethcentury,average

annualtradebetweenthetwopartieswasamereUSD2.7billion.Inthefirst

twoyearsofthetwentyfirstcentury,LatinAmericasufferedfromtheUS

economicrecession,whichkeptthegrowthrateofbilateraltradebetweenChina

andMERCOSURonaparwiththepreviousdecade.Itisonlyinthepastsix

yearsthattradebetweenChinaandMERCOSURhasgrownsubstantially.1

Between2003and2008,tradebetweenChinaandMERCOSURgrew

rapidly.In2003,bilateraltradeexceededUSD10billionforthefirsttime.

302   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

Afterthat,itgrewatanannual49.7percenttoreachUSD65billionin

2008,7.9percenthigherthantheaveragetradegrowthbetweenChinaand

LatinAmerica.Duringthisperiod,ChinasexportstoMERCOSURgrewfrom

lessthanUSD3billiontoapproximatelyUSD25.6billion,atanannual

growthrateof48percent,7.6percenthigherthanChinasaverageannual

exportstoLatinAmerica.Chinasimportsfrom MERCOSURalsoshotup,

fromlessthanUSD9billiontooverUSD39billion,atanannualgrowthrate

of47.2percent,2.5percenthigherthanChinasaverageannualimports

fromLatinAmerica.

犜犪犫犾犲1 犜狉犪犱犲犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚20032008(犝犛犇100犿犻犾犾犻狅狀)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

ExportsfromChina 28.46 49.71 66.88 101.14 160.2 255.59

ImportsintoChina 86.62 121.07 140.21 169.44 250.3 397.54

Totaltradevolume 115.08 170.78 207.09 270.58 410.5 653.13

Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofPRChina2009.

Accordingtothe GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofthePeoples

RepublicofChina,sincethebeginningofthenewcentury,Chinasexportsto

MERCOSURhaveaccountedforanaverageof32percentofitstotalexportsto

LatinAmerica,andChinasimportsfrom MERCOSURhaveaccountedforan

averageof58 percentofitsimportsfrom Latin America.Therefore,

MERCOSURconstitutesamajorsourceofimportsforChina.

ChinaslargesttradepartnersinMERCOSURarethetwolargestmember

countries:Braziland Argentina.In2008,Chinasexportsto Braziland

Argentinaaccountedfor73percentand20percentoftotalexportsto

MERCOSUR,respectively,oratotalof93percent.ChinasimportsfromBrazil

andArgentinaaccountedfor75percentand23percentoftotalimportsfrom

MERCOSUR,respectively,oratotalof98percent.

Trade between China and the two smallest member countries of

MERCUSORislow,however.In2008,Chinasexportsto Uruguayand

ParaguaystoodatUSD1.012billionandUSD759million,respectively,or4per

centand3percentofChinastotalexportstoMERCOSUR.Inthesameyear,

ChinasimportsfromUruguayandParaguaywereUSD624millionandUSD25

million,respectively,or1.6percentand0.1percentofChinastotalimports

fromMERCOSUR.

Chinasmainexportsto MERCOSUR areelectromechanicalproducts,

OpportunitiesandChallengesFacingChinaandMERCOSURintheContextoftheFinancialCrisis 303  

chemicalproducts,basemetalsandmanufacturedgoods.Themainimportsinto

Chinaareminerals,forestryproductsandanimalhusbandryproducts.According

itsofficialstatistics,BrazilmainlyexportstoChinamineralsandplantproducts,

andimportsfromChinamainlyelectromechanicalproducts,chemicalproducts,

basemetalsandmanufacturedgoods.Chinaismaintainingitsleadershipinthe

exportoflabourintensiveproducts.Itstextileproductsandraw materials,

furnitureandtoys,lightindustryproductssuchasshoes,bootsandumbrellas

rank,respectively,fourth,ninthandtenthinBrazilsHarmonisedSystem(HS)

categoryofimportsfromChina,accountingfor36.6percent,45.2percentand

70.5percent,respectively.

AccordingtoofficialArgentinestatistics,ArgentinaexportstoChinamainly

plantproducts,especiallyoilseeds,plantandanimalgrease,mineralsand

leatherproducts.Argentinaimportsfrom China mainlyelectromechanical

products,chemicalproducts,transportationequipment,textileproductsandraw

materials.

Sincethebeginningofthetwentyfirstcentury,theshareofSinoLatin

AmericantradeinChinasforeigntradehasrisensignificantly,fromabout3per

centto6percent.LatinAmericahasbecomeoneofChinasmostimportant

tradingpartners.Mutualcomplementarity,mutualbenefitsandreciprocity

characterisethepartnership.MERCOSURhascontributedgreatlytotherapid

growthinSinoAmericantrade.BrazilisChinaslargesttradingpartnerinLatin

America,andinApril2009ChinabecameBrazilslargesttradingpartnerforthe

firsttime.ArgentinaisChinasfourthlargesttradingpartnerinLatinAmerica.

ChinaisArgentinaslargesttradingpartner,secondlargestexportmarketand

thirdlargestsourceofimports.

1.2!SubstantialProgressinEconomicandTechnologicalCooperationwithChina:TheCasesofBrazil,ArgentinaandUruguay

犛犻狀狅犅狉犪狕犻犾犻犪狀犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀

Chinaisthemostpopulousdevelopingcountryintheworld,whileBrazilis

the mostpopulousdevelopingcountryinthe Western hemisphere.Both

economiesaregrowingrapidly.Owingtothelateestablishmentofdiplomatic

relationsandapolicyonbothsidesoftreatingdevelopedcountriesastheir

diplomaticpriority,investmentandeconomiccooperationbetweenthetwo

countriesstartedratherlate.However,inthepastfiveyears,thenumberof

economiccooperationprojectsbetweenthetwocountrieshasbeenincreasing,as

hasthesizeofinvestments.

ChinastartedeconomiccooperationwithBrazilin1984,firstintheformof

304   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

projectcontractsandexportoflabourservices.Successfullycompletedprojects

includeaerialsurveysforBrazilsterritorialmanagementandportdredging.By

October2008,ChinahadsignedUSD3.3billionworthoflabourservicesand

designconsultancycontracts,withUSD2.09billionalreadyrealised.

AccordingtoChineseMinistryofCommercedata,bytheendofSeptember

2008,ChinasnonfinancialsectordirectinvestmentsinBrazilamountedtoUSD

210million,mainlyintheareasofmining,timberprocessing,motorcycle

manufacturingandhouseapplianceassembly.ByOctober2008,447Brazilian

investedforeignenterpriseshadbeensetupinChina,withatotalinvestmentofUSD

270million,mainlyintheareasofregionalaircraftmanufacturing,compressor

manufacturing,coal,realestate,carpartsmanufacturing,hydropower,textilesand

garments(ChineseMinistryofCommerce2010).

Largecompaniesonbothsidesareshowinganinterestinformingalliances.

BaoSteelinShanghaiformedajointventurewithBrazilsCompanhiaValedoRio

Doce(CVRD),theworldslargestironoreproducerandexporter,tooperate

minesandsteelmillsinBrazil.Chinalcosignedaframeworkagreementwith

CVRDtobuildanaluminaplantinBrazilwithanannualcapacityof1.8million

tonnes.SinopecsignedaframeworkagreementwithBrazilsPetrobrastoexplore

andexploitoilandnaturalgasinBrazilorathirdcountry.Theregionalaircraft

productionlinein Harbin,ajointventurebetweenEmpresaBrasileirade

Aeronutica(EMBRAER)andChinaAviationIndustryCorporationI I(AVIC

I I),wasputintooperationin2003.LargenationalorprivatebanksfromBrazil

havealsosetuprepresentativeofficesinChinatoprovidefinancialservicesto

companiesinbothcountries.

TheSinoBrazilian Earth Resources Satellite Projecthasbeen going

smoothlysinceitscommencementin1988.Bytheendof2007,thecollaboration

betweentwocountrieshadresultedinresearchanddevelopment(R&D),aswell

asthelaunchingofthreeearthresourcessatellites,thedatagatheredbywhich

areprovidedfreetootherdevelopingcountries.Twomoresatellitesaretobe

launchedbefore2013.InJanuary2009,theFederalUniversityofRiodeJaneiro

setuptheBrazilChinaCentreofInnovativeTechnologyResearchtogetherwith

TsinghuaUniversitytoconductresearchonglobalclimatechangeandenergy

security.Chinaalsoisplayinganincreasinglyimportantrolein Brazils

infrastructureanddeepseaoilexploration.

DuringthevisitbyBrazilianPresidentLuladeSilvatoChinainMay2009,

thetwocountriesagreedtofurtherdiversifytheirbilateraltradestructureandto

increasebilateraltradevolumes.Inthecontextofthecurrentglobalfinancial

crisis,theyalsoagreedtodeepencooperationincustoms,animalandplant

OpportunitiesandChallengesFacingChinaandMERCOSURintheContextoftheFinancialCrisis 305  

inspectionandquarantine,toremoveobstaclesintheabovementionedareasand

tofacilitateandsecurebilateraltrade.Bothsidesarecommittedtolaunching

initiativestoencourageandsupport mutualinvestmentinsuchareasas

infrastructure,energy,minerals,agricultureandindustry,especiallyinhigh

techandbiofuels.ThefruitfuleconomiccooperationbetweenChinaandBrazil

hasbecomearolemodelforSouthSouthcooperation.

犛犻狀狅犃狉犵犲狀狋犻狀犲犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀

SimilarprogresshasbeenmadeineconomiccooperationbetweenChinaand

anothermajorMERCOSURcountry,Argentina.WhenChinesePresidentHu

Jintaovisited Argentinain November2004,thetwocountriesreacheda

consensusontheestablishmentanddevelopmentofastrategicpartnership.The

ArgentinegovernmentrecognisedChinasmarketeconomystatus.Thetwosides

signedtheFrameworkAgreementbetweenChinaandArgentinaonCooperation

in the Peaceful Utilisation of Space Technology,a Memorandum of

Understanding(MOU)ontheImplementationPlanofChineseTouristGroupsto

Argentina,anMOUonCooperationintheRailwayProjectandanMOUonthe

EnhancementofExchangeandCooperationintheFieldofEducation.

Whenitcomestothecommercialisationofsatelliteimagery,Argentinacan

provideawealthofsatelliteimagesfortheuseofagriculture,forestry,banks

andinsurancecompanies,municipalplanning,oilandgas,aswellasmine

exploration.The Federal Society for Applied Research (Investigaciones

AplicadasSociedaddelEstado,INVAP),awellestablishedcompanyinthis

area,islookingforwardtocooperatingwithChina.

Owingtothelackofinvestmentaftertheprivatisationofenergycompaniesin

Argentina,needsforoilandgasstorage,warehousingandtransportationcanhardlybe

met.Inordertotackletheproblemfromthegroundup,theArgentinegovernment

developedanewenergystrategyandimplementedaseriesofmeasures,includingthe

establishmentofagovernmentledenergyjointventure,EnergíaArgentinaSociedad

Anónima(Enarsa).ThiscompanybelievesthatChineseoilcompanieshavesufficient

capitalandtechnologytoparticipateinoilandgasexplorationandexploitationin

Argentina.IthopestocooperatewithitsChinesecounterparts.

InJuly2008,CherySocmaS.A.,ajointventureformedbypartnersfrom

China,ArgentinaandUruguay,announcedthattheentryintotheArgentine

marketoftheCheryTiggosassembledinUruguayhadmetwithconsiderable

success.Bycooperatingactivelywithlocalcompanies,Cheryisgrowingtogether

withitsforeignpartners,tothebenefitofbothparties.

Thecasespresentedhereshowclearlythedynamicofbilateraleconomic

306   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

cooperation.AccordingtotheChineseMinistryofCommerce,byJune2008,

ChinasaccumulatednonfinancialsectorinvestmentinArgentinaamountedto

USD172million.ChineseinvestmentinArgentinafocusesonmanufacturing,

navigation,resourceexploitation,importsandexports.Chinesecompanies

startedtoundertakeprojectsin1985.ByOctober2008,Chinesecompanieshad

landedprojectandlabourservicescontractsinArgentinaworthUSD530million

andachievedaturnoverofUSD594million.ByOctober2008,therewere386

ArgentineinvestedcompaniesinChina,withatotalcontractedinvestmentof

USD481millionandatotalrealisedinvestmentofUSD158million(Chinese

MinistryofCommerce2010).

犛犻狀狅犝狉狌犵狌犪狔犪狀犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀

EconomiccooperationbetweenChinaandUruguayhasbeenwideranging.

TherehasbeenfriendlycooperationbetweenChinaandUruguayinagriculture,

includingsmallscalecooperationinricegrowingandviniculture,andinpickup

truckassembly.

In2004,HuaweiofChinasignedaletterofintentoncooperationwith

UruguaysstateownedtelecommunicationscompanyAdministraciónNacionalde

Telecomunicaciones(ANTEL)tobuildanexperimental3Gmobilecommunica

tionnetwork(WidebandCodeDivisionMultipleAccess,WCDMA)inUruguay.

InJuly2005,thenetworkwasofficiallyputintooperation.Itsupportssuch

valueaddingmobilephoneservicesasvideoconferencing,webTVandInternet

access,coveringmostofUruguayscapital,Montevideo.Itisthefirst3Gmobile

phonenetworkinLatinAmerica.

In2007,CherySocmaS.A,setupaplantinUruguaytoproducemotor

vehicles.ItisthefirstoverseasjointventureforChery,anditslargest

investment.In May2008,thecommissioningoftheproductionline was

complete,andthefirstbatchofCheryTiggosrolledofftheline.Carsmadeby

thisplantaresoldmainlyinArgentinaandUruguay.

InJanuary2008,UruguaysMinistryofInternalAffairssignedapublicsecurity

projectcontractwithZhongXingTelecommunicationEquipmentCompanyLimited

(ZTE)ofChina.Thiscontractcoversninesystems,includingemergencyresponse,

datatransferandVoiceoverInternetProtocol(VoIP)videomonitoring.Oncethe

projectiscompleted,theinfrastructureoftheMinistryofInternalAffairswillbe

greatlyenhanced,makingintegratedcommandandrapidresponsepossible,providing

effectivetechnicalbackupforemergencies.ZTEisresponsibleforequipmentsupply,

installation,trainingandaftersalesservice.

TheChinesegovernmentalsohelpsUruguaytotrainmanagersandtechnology

OpportunitiesandChallengesFacingChinaandMERCOSURintheContextoftheFinancialCrisis 307  

experts.Inthepast20years,Uruguayhassentasubstantialnumberofofficialsand

technologicalprofessionalstotailormadetrainingcoursesinChina.

OntheUruguayanside,in2006,FrigorificoCanelones,thelargestmeat

refrigerationcompanyinUruguay,obtainedapprovaltosetupChinasfirst

whollyforeignownedmeatimportingbusiness.Thisnewcompanysold25

tonnesofmeatinasinglemonthinShanghai.Itsmajorclientsaretophotelsand

restaurants.Uruguayanbusinesseshavealsosetupwhollyownedcompaniesor

jointventuresinBeijing,TianjinandLiaoning.

2.犃犖犲狑犛狋犪犵犲狅犳犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋牶犆犺犪犾犾犲狀犵犲狊犉犪犮犻狀犵犛犻狀狅犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚犜狉犪犱犲

ThefinancialcrisistriggeredbythesubprimecrisisinSeptember2008has

hadanenormousnegativeimpactontheglobaleconomy.China,anactive

participantineconomicglobalisation,hasnotbeenspared.BetweenNovember

2008andJune2009,Chinasforeigntradewentdownforeightconsecutive

months,whichwasunprecedentedinits60yearhistory.SinoLatinAmerican

trade,whichhadbeengrowingrapidlyuntilDecember2008,alsofelldrastically

duringthefirstfourmonthsof2009.Moreover,thefallwasmuchgreaterthan

averageinChinasforeigntradeduringthesameperiod.

Inthefirstfourmonthsof2009,tradebetweenChinaandthetwomajor

MERCOSURcountries,BrazilandArgentina,alsowentdown.Liketrade

betweenChinaandmostothercountriesorregionsintheworld,asaresultof

thefinancialcrisistradebetweenChinaandMERCOSURendedsixyearsofhigh

growth.Anewstageofgrowthhasbegun,however.

Chinaexportsmainlymanufacturedgoods,whileimportingprimaryproducts.

Althoughthisisdeterminedbytheeconomicstructureofbothsides,aswellassupply

anddemand,thereismorepotentialtobetappedinbilateraltrade.

ChinahasatradedeficitwithMERCOSUR.Inthefirsteightyearsofthetwenty

firstcentury,itsexport/importratioaveraged0.54,orapproximately1∶2.

犜犪犫犾犲2 犛犻狀狅犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚犜狉犪犱犲犅犪犾犪狀犮犲,20032008(犝犛犇100犿犻犾犾犻狅狀)

Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Imports/Exports -58.16 -71.36 -73.33 -68.3 -90.1 -141.95

Exports/Imports 0.68 0.48 0.33 0.43 0.50 0.60

Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofPRChina2009.

ChinahashadatradedeficitwithBrazilforalongtime.Inthepastnine

308   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

years,thedeficithasincreasedfromUSD397million(2000)toUSD11billion

(2008).TheratiobetweenChinasexportstoBrazilanditsimportsfromBrazil

peakedat0.76(2000)andbottomedoutatamere0.37(2003).

犜犪犫犾犲3 犜狉犪犱犲犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱犅狉犪狕犻犾(犝犛犇100犿犻犾犾犻狅狀)

Year Exports Imports ExportsImports ExportsImports

2000 12.24 16.21 -3.97 0.76

2001 13.51 23.47 -9.96 0.58

2002 14.66 30.03 -15.37 0.49

2003 21.45 58.44 -36.99 0.37

2004 36.75 86.84 -50.09 0.42

2005 48.28 99.89 -51.61 0.48

2006 73.8 129.2 -55.40 0.57

2007 113.72 183.33 -69.61 0.62

2008 187.5 297.5 -110.00 0.63

Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofPRChina2009.

Inthepastnineyears,thetradedeficitbetweenChinaandArgentinahas

risenfrom USD120million(2000)toUSD4.32billion(2008).Theratio

betweenChinasexportsandimportsfromArgentinapeakedat0.87(2000)and

bottomedoutatamere0.15(2002),beforerisingstronglyagain(Table4).

犜犪犫犾犲4 犜狉犪犱犲犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱犃狉犵犲狀狋犻狀犪(犝犛犇100犿犻犾犾犻狅狀)

Year Exports Imports ExportsImports ExportsImports

2000 8.10 9.30 -1.20 0.87

2001 5.74 12.81 -7.07 0.45

2002 1.80 12.40 -10.60 0.15

2003 4.47 27.29 -22.82 0.16

2004 8.52 32.55 -24.03 0.26

2005 13.25 37.99 -24.74 0.35

2006 20.04 37.00 -16.96 0.54

2007 35.67 63.35 -27.68 0.56

2008 50.40 93.60 -43.20 0.54

Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofPRChina2009.

OpportunitiesandChallengesFacingChinaandMERCOSURintheContextoftheFinancialCrisis 309  

DuringtheyearsinwhichSinoMERCOSURtradewasgrowingrapidly,the

pricesofprimaryproductsintheinternationalmarketroseconsiderably.In

particular,crudeoilpricesrosedramaticallyfromthefirsthalfof2008,peaking

atUSD150perbarrel.Thepriceofgrainandmetalsroseseveraltimesinthe

sameperiod.Meanwhile,thepricesofmanufacturedgoodsexperiencedageneral

downturn.Freightratesshotupasoilpricesrose.Theimpactofsuchprice

differentialshasbeendeeplyfeltbyChinesecompanieswhospecialiseinthe

productionoflabourintensivegoodswithalowtechnologycontent.

TherapidgrowthofSinoMERCOSURtraderesultedinagreatdealof

friction.AccordingtotheWTO,inthefirst14yearsafteritsestablishment

(19952008),ArgentinaandBrazilinstituted,respectively,61and37anti

dumpinginvestigationsagainstChineseproducts,accountingfor9percentand

5.5percentofsuchinvestigationsbyWTOmembers.Duringthesameperiod,

ArgentinaandBrazilimposed,respectively,40and21antidumpingmeasureson

Chineseproducts,accountingfor8.4percentand4.4percentofsuchmeasures

byWTOmembers(WTO2008).

Generallyspeaking,those WTO membersthatinstituteantidumping

investigationsorimposeantidumping measureshaverelativelylargetrade

deficits.However,BrazilandArgentinahavehugesurplusesintheirtradewith

China.AlthoughbothcountrieshaverecognisedChinasmarketeconomystatus,

theyhavenotreducedantidumpinginvestigationsormeasuresagainstChina.

Instead,theyhaveaddedantisubsidyandsafeguardmeasurestothepackage.

Sincetheoutbreakofthefinancialcrisis,therehasbeenasurgeinthese

activities,includingbothshorttermandlongtermmeasures.Therefore,trade

protectionismremainsfairlystronginMERCOSUR.

TherehasbeenanimbalanceinthegrowthofSinoMERCOSURinvestment.

ChinasinvestmentinMERCOSURisrelativelysmall,andChinesecompaniesdonot

thinkthattheinvestmentenvironmentinSouthAmericaisideal.AlthoughSouth

Americancountriesclaimtheyencourageforeigndirectinvestment,theentrybarriers

areveryhigh.Lowefficiency,poorinfrastructure,strongtradeunionsandhuge

culturaldifferencesmakeiteventougherforChinesecompaniestoinvestin

SouthAmerica.Ontheotherhand,Chinesecompaniesstillhavesomewaytogo

indevelopingtheircapabilitiesfor“goinginternational”.Theymustfurther

improvehumanresources,capitalandmanagementexpertise.

3.犘狅狋犲狀狋犻犪犾犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋狊犻狀狋犺犲犠犪犽犲狅犳狋犺犲犉犻狀犪狀犮犻犪犾犆狉犻狊犻狊

Althoughthefinancialcrisiswasgenerallyunexpected,retrospectivelyits

310   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

occurrenceisperfectlylogical.ItisnocoincidencethatSinoMERCOSURtradefell

drasticallyfromJanuary2009.ThehighgrowthperiodinSinoMERCOSURtradehas

givenplacetoanewphase.Thefinancialcrisisposesbothseverechallengesandrare

opportunitiesforthefurtherdevelopmentofSinoMERCOSURtrade.Onbalance,

therearemorefavourablethanunfavourableconditions.

3.1!FavourableConditions

Together,ChinaandMERCOSURconstituteahugemarketcoveringawide

area,andwithrichresourcesandahugepopulation.Bilateraleconomicand

tradecooperationbenefitfromsolidfoundations:Chinahasformaldiplomatic

relationswiththreeoutofthefourMERCOSURcountries:Brazil,Argentina

andUruguay.Therearehealthypolitical,economicandculturalrelations,and

nofundamentalconflictsofinterest.Althoughtherearenoformaldiplomatic

relationsbetweenChinaandParaguay,tradehasalreadystarted.Thereisevery

prospectthatChinaandMERCOSURwilldeveloptheireconomicandtrade

relations.Itisintheinterestofthepeopleonbothsides,aswellasfromthe

pointofviewofcooperationbetweendevelopingcountries.

Chinahassigned,withBrazil,ArgentinaandUruguay,theintergovernmental

tradeagreement,andagreementsoneconomicandtechnicalcooperationandonocean

goingshipping,aswellasonencouragingandprotectingmutualinvestments.In

addition,China hassigned MOUs withthethreecountries onfishery

cooperation,tourismcooperationandloanagreements,aswellasonenergy

cooperation.

Chinahasalsoestablishedanintergovernmentalcommitteeoneconomyand

tradewithBrazil,ArgentinaandUruguaytocoordinatethedevelopmentof

bilateraleconomicandtraderelations.Atthesametime,ChinasNational

DevelopmentandReform Commission,MinistryofCommerce,Ministryof

Agriculture,MinistryofHealth,MinistryofTransportation,Ministryofthe

InformationIndustry,GeneralAdministrationofQualitySupervision,Inspection

andQuarantine,NationalTourismAdministration,CouncilforthePromotionof

InternationalTrade,theBankofChinaandtheExportImportBankofChina

haveestablishedcooperationwiththeircounterpartsinthethreecountries.

Inrecentyears,SouthAmericancountriessuchasBrazilandArgentinahave

attachedgrowingimportancetoAsianmarketssuchasChinaandIndia.Their

enthusiasm for expanding economic and trade relations with China is

unprecedented.TheirtraderelationswithEastAsiancountrieshavebeen

intensified.

Theoutbreakofthefinancialcrisisheraldsamajorchangeineconomic

OpportunitiesandChallengesFacingChinaandMERCOSURintheContextoftheFinancialCrisis 311  

globalisationfollowingover20yearsrapidgrowth.Atthesametime,itexposes

someunderlyingproblemsintheeconomicdevelopmentofdevelopingcountries,

includingChinaandMERCOSURmembers.Fromthisperspective,thefinancial

crisismaybegoodnewsforChinaandMERCOSUR,sinceitprovidesthelatter

withastrategicopportunitytochangetheirgrowth modeand maketheir

economicrelationsmoresustainable.

3.2!SuggestionsfortheNearFuture

Anopen,equitableandmultilateraltrademechanismisconducivetothe

healthygrowthoftheworldeconomy.ChinaandMERCOSURshouldmaintaina

steadfastcommitmenttothemultilateraltrademechanism,supporttheDoha

Roundtalks,resisttradeprotectionismandpromotetheearlyresumptionofthe

DohaRoundtalksandacomprehensive,wellbalancedoutcome.

Freetradezonesrepresentanimportantsupplementtothemultilateraltrade

mechanism.ThesuccessfulconclusionoffreetradeagreementsbetweenChina

andLatinAmericancountriesprovidesbothfavourableconditionsandvaluable

lessonsforChinaandMERCOSURandshouldencouragethemtostartsimilar

negotiationsintheneartomediumterm.Wesuggestthatsuchnegotiationsstart

asearlyaspossible,sothatcrosscontinentfreetradezonescanbeestablished.

Confrontedbythefinancialcrisis,ChinaandLatinAmericancountries

shouldgiveprioritytostrengtheningfinancialcooperation,soastomitigatethe

negativeimpactofthefinancialcrisisonbilateraltrade.Theliquiditysqueeze

causedbytherampagingglobalfinancialcrisishasalreadycreatedgreat

difficultiesfortheexportorientedtradesystemsinAsiaandLatinAmerica.

Exportshavefallendramatically.ExchangeratesfluctuateagainsttheUSdollar

andriskisgrowingininternationaltrade.Manyinitiativescouldbelaunched,

includingnegotiationsoncurrencyswapagreements.

Currencyswapsareakindofforeignexchangeagreementbetweentwo

countriestoavoidexchangeraterisks.Afteracertainperiodoftimeanda

certainquantityofexchangeshaveoccurred,thecentralbanksofthetwo

countriessettleup.By meansofsuch mechanisms,tradingorexporting

businessesinthetwocountriescanreceivepaymentsintheirdomesticcurrency,

therebybenefitingbybothavoidingexchangeraterisksandreductionsin

currencyconversioncharges.Partiesinacurrencyswapusuallyagreeona

quota.Oncetheswaphasbeenlaunched,thetwocountriescanprovideshort

termliquiditysupportforeachotherbyexchanginglocalcurrencies,thereby

facilitatingfinancing between localcommercial banks and theirforeign

counterparts,promotingbilateraltrade.

312   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

Shortlyaftertheoutbreakofthefinancialcrisis,BrazilandArgentina

activatedalocalcurrencysettlementsystemintheirbilateraltradeinOctober

2008.Theyalsoplantoextendthesystem—whichaimsateliminatingtheUS

dollarasvehiclecurrency—totherestofMERCOSUR,therebyoffsettingimport

limitsimposedbyanumberofcountriesthatlackUSdollarreserves.

StartinginDecember2008,Chinasignedcurrencyswapagreementswiththe

monetaryauthoritiesinSouthKorea,Malaysia,IndonesiaandBelarus,the

ChinamainlandalsosignedcurrencyswapagreementwithHongKong.On29

March2009,ChinasignedaRMB70billion(USD10.25billion)framework

currencyswapagreementwithArgentina,thefirstofitskind—andalsothe

largestfinancialdeal—betweenChinaandaLatinAmericancountry.Bytheend

ofMarch2009,currencyswapagreementsbetweenChinaandothercountriesor

regionsamountedtoRMB650billion,about5percentofChinasforeign

reserves(Xinhuanet2009).

Atpresent,USdollarsarecommonlyusedininternationaltrade.Countries

notonlysettletheirtradeinUSdollars,butalsokeepUSdollarsasforeign

reserves.Thesubprimecrisisdealtablowtotheeconomyofcountrieswithlarge

USdollarforeignreserves.InordertoensurefurthergrowthofSinoLatin

Americaneconomicandtraderelations,ChinaanditsmajorLatinAmerican

partnercountriesshouldstrengtheneffectivecooperationinthefinancialsector,

includingthenegotiationandsigningofcurrencyswapagreements.

Duringthenewstageofgrowth,ChinaandMERCOSURshouldtrytheir

besttotapintothepotentialofservicetradeaswellastradeingoods.Service

tradebetweenChinaandMERCOSURisnewbutexciting.Forexample,large

companiesfrom ChinaandBrazilhavejoinedhandsinmetallurgy,mining,

energy,aviation,aerospaceandfinance,achievingsatisfactoryresultswhich

indicatethehugepotentialofcooperationbetweenthetwosidesinhigh

technologyandservicetrade.

Havingrelativelydevelopedeconomies,BrazilandArgentinaenjoydistinct

advantagesinautomobiles,metallurgy,minerals,nuclearpower,medicine,

finance,insurance,tourism,educationandinvestment.Theyarewellplacedto

intensifycooperationwithChinesecompaniesintheseareas.

TheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeandits

KyotoProtocoldemandthatcountriesadheretotheprincipleofcommonbut

differentiatedresponsibilities,activelyimplementtheBaliRoadmaptalksand

adopteffectivemeasurestomitigateclimatechangethatareinlinewiththeir

particularcircumstances.Forestprotectionisanimportant partofthe

cooperationagainstclimatechange.In2007,ChinaproposedtheAsiaPacific

OpportunitiesandChallengesFacingChinaandMERCOSURintheContextoftheFinancialCrisis 313  

NetworkforSustainableForestManagementandRehabilitationinitiative,in

whichbothChinaandMERCOSURcanplayimportantroles.

Sinceitisoftenbeyondthecapabilitiesofonecountrytocopewithacatastrophic

naturaldisaster,supportfromtheinternationalcommunityisneeded.In2008,China

putforwardthe“BasicPrincipleforDealingwithDisastersandCooperation

withintheAPEC”withaviewtostrengtheningexchangeandcooperationinthis

areaintheAsiaPacificregion.ChinaandMERCOSURcouldconsidersome

longtermcooperationprojectsinpostdisasterconstruction.

Foodandenergysecurityisvitalnotonlytotheeconomyandlife,butalso

globaldevelopmentandsecurity.Asmajorfoodproducersandconsumers,China

andMERCOSURshouldtakeactivemeasurestoensureworldfoodandenergy

security.Bothsidesshouldattachgreatimportancetofoodproduction,increase

investment,relyonscienceandtechnology,increasefoodsupply,improvethe

foodtradeenvironment,establishafairandequitabletradesystemforfarmproduce,

strengthenmacrocontrol,curboverspeculationinthemarketandstabilisefoodprices.

Bothsidesshouldstrengthenmutuallybeneficialcooperationinenergydevelopment,as

wellaspolicycoordination,diversifyenergysupply,setupanadvancedsystemfor

thedevelopmentanddisseminationofenergytechnologyandadvocategreateruse

ofcleanenergyandrenewableenergy.

4.犆狅狀犮犾狌狊犻狅狀

Beforethefinancialcrisis,economicandtraderelationsbetweenChinaand

MERCOSURhadtakenadvantageofeconomicglobalisationandgrownrapidly,

whichlaidasolidfoundationforthefurtherdevelopmentofstrategiccomplementarities

betweenthetwosides.Thefinancialcrisishashadaverynegativeimpactonthe

worldeconomy,includingChinaandMERCOSUR.Itisnotyetbehindus.

However,thankstotherelativelysolideconomicfoundationsinChinaand

MERCOSUR,aswellasthemeasurestakenimmediatelytoaddressthecrisis,

ChinaandMERCOSURarestillconfidentoffurtherdevelopingtheireconomic

andtraderelations,which willmakeaconstructivecontributionto world

economicrecovery.Chinaand MERCOSURshouldseizetheopportunities

presentedbythefinancialcrisis,strengthenanddeepenbilateralcooperationand

furthercontributetotherecoveryandstablegrowthoftheworldeconomy.

Notes

1.Unlessotherwisespecified,thetradedatareferredtointhischapterwerecollectedand

analysedbytheauthorbasedontheannualstatisticalyearbookofthe General

AdministrationofCustomsofPRChina.

314   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

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ChineseGovernment(2008),犘狅犾犻犮狔犘犪狆犲狉狅狀犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪犪狀犱狋犺犲犆犪狉犻犫犫犲犪狀,Peoples

RepublicofChina,5November.

ChineseMinistryofCommerce(2010),online:http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/fuwzn/fuwzn.

html(24September2010).

General Administration of Customs of PR China (2009),online:http://www.

chinacustomsstat.com/customsstat/,April2009.

Hu,Jintao(2008),“AdheringtotheConceptofOpeningUpandCooperation,Seeking

MutualBenefitsandWinWinResults,”Speechatthe16thAPECInformalLeadership

Meeting,22November.

WTO(2008),犐狀狋犲狉狀犪狋犻狅狀犪犾犜狉犪犱犲犛狋犪狋犻狊狋犻犮狊2008,online:http://www.wto.org(2September

2010).

WTO(2009),犠犜犗犢犲犪狉犫狅狅犽2009,online:http://www.wto.org/spanish/res_s/statis_s/

statis_s.htm(1September2010).

Xinhuanet(2009),online:http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/200904/01/content_

11110010.htm(1October2010).

书书书

CurrentandFutureCooperationundertheEUMERCOSURAgreement 315   

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉8

犆狌狉狉犲狀狋犪狀犱犉狌狋狌狉犲犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀狌狀犱犲狉

狋犺犲犈犝犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚犃犵狉犲犲犿犲狀狋

!"#$ %&'(

1.犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犫犲狋狑犲犲狀狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚

TheSouthernCommonMarket(MERCOSUR)wasestablishedin1991bythe

TreatyofAsunción.TheOuroPretoProtocolof1994setoutitsinstitutionalstructure

inmoredetail.ItiscomposedofBrazil,Argentina,UruguayandParaguay.Without

muchvisibleimpact,BoliviaandChilejoinedMERCOSURin1996asassociate

members,followedbyPeruin2003andVenezuela,EcuadorandColombiain2004.

Venezuelaisnowintheprocessofbecomingafullmember.Biregionalrelationsbetween

theEuropeanUnion(EU)andMERCOSURarebasedonthe1995interregional

FrameworkCooperationAgreement,whichprovidesthebasisforpoliticaldialogueand

cooperationbetweenthetworegions.Inrecentyears,relationshavebeendominatedby

thedifficultprocessofnegotiationsonanAssociationAgreement,whichwerelaunchedin

2000buthavenotbeenconcluded.Followingthesuspensionoftradenegotiationsin20041

attherequestofMERCOSUR,whichwantedfirsttoseetheoutcomeofthemultilateral

Doharound,relationshaveundergoneasubstantialslowdown.

Somehavespokenof“neverstarting”ratherthan“neverending”negotiations.

Frustrationsonbothsideswithregardtoinsufficientorevenreducednegotiationoffers

haveledtofriction.Itdoesnotmatterwhoseperceptionismorecorrect,realityiswhat

eachsideperceivesassuch.However,sincetheendof2007,newimpetuswasinjected

ThischaptertakesuppartsofshortspeakingpointsinitiallymadebymycolleagueBeatrizMartins,then

inchargeofMERCOSURattheDirectorateGeneralfortheExternalRelations(DGRELEX)ofthe

EuropeanCommission.However,responsibilityforthetextisentirelymineand,asusual,theviews

expressedinthischapterarethoseoftheauthorandshouldinnowaybeconsideredasexpressingthe

officialpositionoftheCounciloftheEuropeanUnionoranyofitsofficials.

316   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

intotherelationship,withaseriesofhighlevelvisitsandmeetingsatworkinglevel.

AttheEUMERCOSURsummitinLimainMay2008,thepartiesconfirmed“the

importanceofreachinganambitiousandbalancedAssociationAgreementandtheir

commitmenttocarrynegotiationsthroughtoasuccessfulconclusion”,adding“as

conditionspermit”.Similarannouncementsweremadebeforeandafter.TheEUhas

beenfrustratedthataftersuchhighlevelcommitments,noprogresswasvisiblewhen

negotiatorsmetagain.Itremainstobeseenwhetherthenewcommitmentsmadeatthe

IVEUMERCOSURSummiton17May2010inMadridwillfinallyleadtonew

advances(EUCouncildoc.9870/10).

Thetaskofthepresentchapterisnottodealwiththethornyissueofoverall

tradenegotiationsaimedatbiregionalfreetrade.However,someaspectsofthe

tradeissuemustbeoutlinedtobetterunderstandthepossibleevolutionof

biregionalcooperation.MERCOSURranksonlyeighthamongEUtrading

partners,withjust2.7percentoftotalEUtrade,whereastheEUaccountsfor

27percentofMERCOSURsexportsand20percentofitsimports.2EvenBrazil

isonlytheEUseleventhlargestmarket.AggregateEUinvestment,however,

exceedsEUstocksinChina,IndiaorevenJapan.EUinvestmentstandsoutin

nonprimarysectorsandisthereforecontributingmoretolocaladdedvalueand

jobs.SixtypercentofFDIisrelatedtoservices.Asamajorsourceoftrade

relatedassistance,theEUreinforcesthecompetitivenessofitscompetitors(EU

Councildoc.8695/09).Thenegotiationproblemsindicatea NorthSouth

cleavage.TheEU wantsacomprehensiveagreementwithresultsexceeding

thosetobereachedonthemultilaterallevel—a “Dohaplus”.Otherwise,

additionalandparallelnegotiationsonasubDoha,biregionallevelwouldnot

makemuchsense.LeadingCommissionfiguresaskedpubliclyin2007whether

anEUofferaslargeastheonemadeatthemultilaterallevelcouldreallybe

expectedinthisbiregionalcontext.Servicesrepresent70percentofGDPand

jobsintheEU,whichthushasanunderstandableinterestinfreetradeinthis

area.InMERCOSUR,theyrepresentlessthan20percent.Itwascalculated

thataFreeTradeAgreement(FTA)wouldaddEUR57billiontoservices;the

costofafailuretoreachagreementisoverEUR5billion,andnearlyEUR4

billioningoods.

InnegotiationswiththeEU,MERCOSURfocusesonagriculturalproducts,

andrelatedsubsidies.Understandably,thereareclearreasons—notalways

economicones—whyagricultureplayssuchadecisiverole.Butitisworth

stressingthattheEUisMERCOSURsprimarymarketforagriculturalexports.

Thereisawisesayinginbusinessthatyoudonotinsultyourbestclient.Inthe

CurrentandFutureCooperationundertheEUMERCOSURAgreement 317  

Dohatalks,theEUofferedtocutitsfarmtariffsbymorethanhalf,reduce

domesticfarmsubsidiesby70percentandeliminateexportsubsidiesby2013,if

othersofferedsomethingsimilar.Itshouldalsobekeptinmindthat:

(1)achangeinexchangeratesandglobaldynamicscanhaveabigger

influencethanchangesintariffsandtariffquotas;

(2)manyweakerdevelopingcountrieshavecometoseetheBrazilianrequest

intheDoharoundoftotalliberalisationofagriculturaltradeasathreat

totheirown,lesscompetitiveproduction;

(3)meanwhilewithrisingglobaldemandforagriculturalproducts,therealissue

willbewhetherallproducerstogethercandeliverenough,nothowandhow

mucheachofthemsubsidisesitsexports.Thus,agricultureshouldhenceforth

belessofastumblingblock.

2.犜犺犲犆狌狉狉犲狀狋犛狋犪狋犲狅犳犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚

Asthefourthlargesteconomicgroupintheworld,MERCOSURisthemost

potentareainLatinAmerica.However,itsintegrationprocesshasadvancedata

snailspace.AsstatedintheEuropeanCommissionsRegionalStrategyPaper

(200713:4),

MERCOSURhassufferedfromalackofpoliticalinvolvementandchanging

politicalpriorities,resultingindisparateprojects...Thelistofincrementalstepsis

impressive.However,theeconomicintegrationprocessisstillfarfromcomplete

andtradedisputesareendemic...Manyunilateraltrademeasureshavebeen

adoptedbyindividualmemberswithlittlepriorconsultationoftheothermembers,

leadingtoaperceivedsenseofdisillusionwithinthebloc,despitetheaffinityamong

themoderateleftwingpartiesinpowerinthreeofthefourMERCOSURstates.

(EuropeanCommissionsRegionalStrategyPaper:7)

Some,albeitlimited,progresshasbeenmadeinsettingupinstitutions,

suchasthe MERCOSUR Parliament,the TechnicalSecretariatandthe

MERCOSURCoreper.KeydecisionsonaMERCOSURcustomsunioncontinue

tobedelayed.Newinternaltradebarriershavebeenintroducedagainstother

MERCOSURmembers.MERCOSURisnotfunctioningasafullyfreetrade

area,asinternalbarriersarestillwidespread.Onlyasrecentlyas2010were

MERCOSURmembersabletoagreeontheabolitionofthedoubletariffson

importsfromthirdcountrieswhicharethenreexportedinsidethebloc.This

wasdisappointing,alsoforprogressinbiregionalnegotiations.Thusinternal

criticismof MERCOSUR hasincreasedfurther,sothatsomeclaim that

MERCOSURhasfailed:

(1)ForParaguaysPresidentFernandoLugo,“MERCOSURcomesofage

318   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

buthasnotyetgrownup”(BrazilandSouthernConereportJan.15,2009).

(2)Brazilseemswearyofandhasoutgrowntheorganisation;theprivate

sectorurgestheauthoritiestochooseadealwiththeEUovercontinuingin

MERCOSUR(BrazilandSouthernConereport,Jan.15,2009).

(3)SmallermembersUruguayandParaguaycontinuallycomplainthattheir

interestsarenottakenintoaccount.

(4)TensionswithinMERCOSURattheEURIOGroupministerialmeeting

inMay2009inPragueweresuchthatMERCOSURcouldnotagreeonthe

presenceoftheMERCOSUR“presidency”atapressconference.

(5)Thereisalackofastrongendogenousbaseforintegration,includinga

productionpatternfittingmoretheinterestsoftherich,lessbroadinternaldemand.

Intraregionaltradehasnotgrownasexpected.AccordingtofiguresfromEurostatand

theUNEconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(CEPAL),the

intraregionalshareinoverallexportsofgoodsamountedin2007tojust13percentin

MERCOSUR,comparedtoEUfiguresofaround67percent.Chinahasalargershare

inBrazilsmarketthanArgentina(8.6percentvs.10.5percent),whileMexico

investedsomeUSD3billioninBrazilbetween2003and2007,ChileinvestedUSD869

million,andColombiainvestedUSD400million;ArgentinasFDItherewasamere

USD388million(MERCOSURabcMar.26,2009).

(6)MERCOSUR wasperceivedashavingdifficultiesinprovidingan

efficientframeworktopreventorsettleinternaldisputes.FelixPeasaid:“We

needtobuildaMERCOSURofpartners,notofhostages.”

(7)MERCOSURhassofarbeenunabletoestablishacommonstanceintheDoha

DevelopmentAgenda(DDA)negotiations.TheMERCOSUREuropeBusinessForum

(MEBF)hasrepeatedlyexpressedfrustration,regrettingthat“thecostsofinternal

coordinationofMERCOSURsnegotiatingpositionsgrewsignificantly”,anddenounced

“MERCOSURsinternaldynamicsas moreanobstaclethananincentivefor

negotiations”(ElPaisDec.25,2009).TheysawMERCOSURasjustaplatformfor

foreignpolicyposturing,andclaimeditiseasiertoexporttotheEU—recentlyaccused

ofbeinga“fortress”—thanwithinMERCOSUR.

3.犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犐狀狋犲犵狉犪狋犻狅狀

Europeanintegrationisneitherauniversal“model”norperfect.Nevertheless,it

showsanumberofthingsthatareessentialforprogress,butmeanwhilealsothata

lackofpoliticalwillandseriousnesscanundoit.Itwasbuiltonastrong,sustained

politicalcommitment,theconstructionofajudicialsystemandsomesupranational

institutions,aswellascommonpoliciesandjointactions.Memberstatesusually

complywithit.JeanMonnetsaidthattogeneratenewideasyouneedpersons,butto

CurrentandFutureCooperationundertheEUMERCOSURAgreement 319  

sustainthemyouneedinstitutions.TheEUsystemhasbeensufficientlyflexibleto

adaptitsadvancementtospecialcircumstances.Ithasmeanwhileexperienceda

considerablevarietyof“differentiatedintegration”,correspondingtoagrowing

varietyofbasicexperiences,politicalculturesandlongtermobjectives,from

enlargingtheEuropeanEconomicCommunity(EEC)ofsixmemberstotheEU

of27membersoftoday.

MERCOSURsharessomeofthetypicalcharacteristics—onemightalsosay

weaknesses—ofotherLatinAmericaandCaribbean(LAC)schemesofregional

orsubregionalintegration(RI):

(1)aplethoraofconcepts morerapidlyreplacedbynew onesthan

implemented;

(2)alackofdefinitionandvision,withimprovisationastheresult;

(3)anexcessivedominanceofextraregionaltradeandslowimprovementof

intraregionaltrade,aswellasinequitabledistributionofbenefits;

(4)theabsenceofarealcommontradepolicy;

(5)limitedcoordinationofmacroeconomicpolicies;

(6)weaknationaland,evenmoreso,regionalinstitutionsandinsufficient

fundsforboth;and

(7)agrowingbeliefinsomecountriesthatregionalintegrationispartofthe

problem,butnotofthesolution(Caetano2009;RuedaJunquera2009;

Sukup2001).3

SometalkofLACasa“burialgroundforzombieintegrationschemes”.In

LatinAmerica,withitstraditionalstrongemphasisonnational“sovereignty”,it

takestimetounderstandthattherealproblemisnotthelossofsovereignty,but

thelossofinfluence—toseeregionalintegrationasaremedyandnotacauseof

decreasingnationalinfluence.Toacceptthatinamodernsocietyandglobal

world,actingsovereignlyalsomeansbeingableandwillingtodecideonthemost

efficientlevelatwhichtasksshouldbeperformed,whichsometimeswillbethe

regionalone.

Asaconsequence,theintergovernmentalconceptconcentratesdecisionstoo

muchonsummitsandishostagetounanimity,afaultthathasalsoplaguedthe

EUattimes.Pea,althougha “professionaloptimist”,seesariskofa

deteriorationofMERCOSURscredibilitybecauseoftheprecariousstateofits

procedures.Moreover,from1991until2007,only47percentofcommon

MERCOSURnorms weretransposedtonationallegalframeworks.Some

nationalcourtsstillhavedifficultyregardingandacceptingMERCOSURpolitical

orlegaldecisionsasguidingorbinding.Untilrecently,suchdecisionswerenot

evenregularlypublished.Thesituationprovokedseriousquestionsconcerning

320   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

whopaysfordamagesduetononimplementationofthejudgmentsofthe

MERCOSURTribunalPermanentedeRevision.AnewJusticeTribunalwas

agreedpolitically,buttofunctionitwouldneedchangesinsomenational

constitutions.

Butsomelessonshavebeenlearned.MERCOSURhasseentheweaknessofitsad

hocsystemsfortradedisputesettlement,butthenewTradePolicyReviewMechanism

(TPRM),createdin2004,hasyettoproveitsefficiency.Again,inflexiblepositions

onallegedriskstonationalsovereigntyblockprogress.Inaddition,theEUideaof

compensationandsolidarityfundshasmadesomegroundinLatinAmerica—for

example,theStructuralConvergenceFundMERCOSUR(FOCEM)—butitstillhas

insufficientresources(USD100million).

4.犆狌狉狉犲狀狋犈犝犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀

CooperationwithMERCOSURusingfundsfromthebudgetoftheEuropean

Community(managedbytheCommission)startedin1991,notablyinsupportof

itsnewlyestablishedstructures.The20022006RegionalStrategyPaper(RSP)

provided,inadditiontobilateralCountryStrategyPapersandfunding,EUR48

millionto supportimplementation ofthe MERCOSUR internal market,

institutionalisationandcivilsociety.TheEUcontributed,certainlyalsoinits

owninterest,withtechnicalassistanceonthesettingofregionalstandardsand

procedures.Fortheperiod200713,withintheoverall“regionalindicative

programme”fortheMERCOSURarea(EUR556million=21percentofthe

globalallocationsforLatinAmerica),EUR50millionareearmarkedtofinance

MERCOSURintegrationprojectsinthreepriorityareas:

(1)strengtheninginstitutions(10percent),

(2)supportingintegrationandpreparingfortheimplementationofan

AssociationAgreement(70percent)and

(3)fosteringtheparticipationofcivilsocietyintheintegrationprocess,including

disseminatinginformationandincreasingitsvisibility(20percent).Thismakesthe

EUbyfarthelargestprovideroffinancialassistancefortheintegrationofMERCOSUR

(EuropeanCommission2007).

Politically,theEUcooperationprogrammewasdesignedontheassumption

thatMERCOSURwouldcontinuetostrengthenitsinstitutionsanddeepenits

integrationatasustainedpace.However,theprogrammeisexperiencing

difficultieswithregardtopolitical,technicalandadministrativeimplementation.

ThereisnoMERCOSURinstitutionwhichcouldbethepartnerorbeneficiaryof

theProgramme.Eachprojectismanagedasanadhocarrangementwitha

nationalagency,whichthenactsasthecoordinatorwithinMERCOSUR.This

CurrentandFutureCooperationundertheEUMERCOSURAgreement 321  

processiscomplicatedanddifficult.Recently,EUsupporttoFOCEMandthe

MERCOSURtribunalhadtobedecommittedduetoMERCOSURswithdrawal

fromcertainprojects.

Theideaofauthenticintegrationsecretariatswithindependentcivilservants

hasnottakenhold.Asecretariatwithjustahandfulofhigherofficials,30staff

altogetherandabudgetofonlyUSD1million,asinMERCOSUR,issimplynot

capableofpromotingintegration.Atbest,itcanprovidetechnicalassistancefor

intergovernmentalprocedures.EUcooperationwithMERCOSURinstitutions

andplayers,aswellasstandardsettingiswelcome.TheEUhasaroleas

tentative“externalfederator”.Sincetheearly1990s,theEUhasbeenalong

termandimportantsourceforthestafftrainingofallLatinAmericanintegration

schemes,including MERCOSURsprotemporepresidencies,itsembryonic

Parliamentandthejointparliamentarycommittee,aswellasthePermanent

Review Tribunal.TheEU hashelpedto modernisecustomsprocedures,

statisticsandsanitaryandphytosanitarystandards,amongotherthings.Thisis

somewhatastonishinginrelationtocountries,mostlyinthemiddleincome

category,whicharesoproudoftheir“sovereignty”.Theoutcomeofthe2010

midtermreviewprocessremainstobeseen.

5.犈犝犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚—犠犺犻犮犺犠犪狔犃犺犲犪犱?

AskedwhethertheygiveMERCOSURandbiregionalnegotiationsmuch

chance,someanswerwiththeBavariansaying:“Idswear,butIdneverbeton

it!”TheEUisunlikelytosharethedesperationoftheParaguayanForeign

Ministerthatthegroupisina“terminalstate”(OEstadodeSoPaolo,24.7.

2009).Nevertheless,anumberofquestionswereasked.Forexample,whether

agreementsshouldbepursuedeveniftheyhadbeendesignedunderdifferent

circumstances?Also,shouldtheEUoptforsomethingwhichopensuprelations

moreorsettleforsomething morespecific,but more modest?Whatif

negotiationsdonotresume?TheEUclearlyfavoursregionalintegrationandthus

biregionalnegotiations,andwillcertainlynotwishtobeseenasthepartyresponsible

forscuttlingintegrationschemesbysinglingoutindividualcountries.ButtheEU

cannotimposeitsfavouredapproachandthereforeisnolongerfundamentalistonthe

issue.ThiswasillustratedwhentheEUovercameBoliviasobstructionofAndean

negotiationswiththeEU.Furthermore,theEUproceededwiththosewhowishedto

continue,butleftthedooropenforotherstojoinlater.Inthisway,theEUrespects

thesovereignwillofboththewillingandthereluctant.

Anumberofsuggestionsmadeinthiscontextseemtoberatherpremature,

suchasthefusionof MERCOSURandthe Andean Communityorrapid

322   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

negotiationsonanoverallEULatinAmericaAssociationAgreement,including

freetrade.Political,economic,proceduralandideologicaldivergenceswithin

LatinAmericaanditsregionsorbetweentheEUandLatinAmericapromiseno

success.Nevertheless,thereissomepotentialinEUMERCOSURrelationsand

cooperation.Also,aclearturnaroundisdiscernibleinofficialEUdocuments

(COM2009),MERCOSURspositionsandacademicresearchinthedirectionof

Realpolitik,withsuggestionsonwhereprogressmightbemade.

Thecurrentglobalcrisismakesthecaseforinterregionalandintraregional

cooperationevenstronger.ThisisthemessageofastudybytheLatinAmerican

TradeNetwork (Heidrich2007),whichrecommendsanewstartinLatin

Americaonthebasisofintensifiedcooperationininfrastructureandproductive

integration,oratleastinterconnectivity.Alongthesamelines,andalwayskeen

toseekawayout,Pea(2009b)developedthreescenarios.First,integrational

inertiaduetoinsufficientinnovation;second,a“foundationalsyndrome”which

throwsmostoptionsoverboard;andathirdoption whichcapitaliseson

accumulatedexperienceandresults.IdeasdiscussedbytheEUandimplemented

toacertaindegreeinthecourseofitsowndevelopment,suchas“géographie

variable”,amultispeedEuropeandsoon,haverecentlybeentakenupinofficial

MERCOSURcirclesbothforEUMERCOSURnegotiationsandfordevelopment

withinMERCOSUR.

Inacademiccircles,Pea,delArenalandFloressuggestasimilarchangeof

emphasisandpragmaticadvanceinregionalandEUMERCOSURrelations.Onthe

biregionallevel,the1995EUMERCOSURagreementanditsevolutionclausecouldbe

used,andthepartiesconcernedmightlookintopartial,temporaryprogressin

economicrelationsto(re)buildconfidence(delArenal2009).

5.1 PoliticalDialogue

Thenegotiatorofthe1995agreement,UruguayandiplomatGuillermo

Valles,recalledataconferenceinParisthattheinitiallogicinEUMERCOSUR

relationswasabetterbalanceinglobalaffairsandrebalancingtheEUpresence

inLatinAmerica,withanemphasisondealingwithissuesatamultilaterallevel,

withinamultipolarglobalsystem.Therewasageopoliticaldimensionthat

shouldnotbeforgotten.Thisalsofitsinwiththeviewsofotheranalysts:

MERCOSURcanbecomeapoliticalschemeratherthanjustaregionaleconomic

integrationarea.MERCOSURhasshownitsvalueinsecuringstabilityinthe

region,asinthecaseofParaguay.Itcanthusbeanimportantbaseforfarther

reachingconcepts,suchastheUnionofSouthAmericanNations(UNASUR)

which,despiteideologicalclashes,didpreventahemisphericcrisisfrombreaking

CurrentandFutureCooperationundertheEUMERCOSURAgreement 323  

outorbecomingviolent.TheregionofLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeancan

buildonthereinforcedmultilevelprocessofpoliticalconcertation,suchasthe

“new”RIOGroup,meanwhilecoveringallLatinAmericaandagrowingnumber

ofCaribbeancountries,orUNASUR.Suchprocesseshavebeenextended

beyondthe politicalareainto security and health care. This creates

psychological,socialanddiplomaticgroundsformoreandregularcoordination.

Sofar,politicaldialoguewith MERCOSUR—aswithotherintegration

schemes—hasbeenuseful,butbynomeansasmuchasitmighthavebeen:ina

biregionalcontext,issuesconcerningsingle membercountriescannotbe

discussed;butthisistrueforbothsides(Buck2009a).Tocircumventthis,such

dialoguemustnotbelimitedtothelevelofministersorhighofficials.The

growingcontactsbetweenparliamentariansonbothsides,orcivilsocietiesand

theirorganisations,suchastheEuropeanEconomicandSocialCommitteeand

theCommitteeoftheRegionsormeetingsbetweenlocaladministrationsofthe

kindwhichtookplacein2007inParis,areencouraginginitiatives.Itisalso

strikingthatallofthesixpoliticalfoundationsinGermanyhavetakenupthe

issuesofsecurityinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.Some,suchasthe

KonradAdenauerStiftung or the FriedrichEbertStiftung, already have

longstandingexperiencethroughbiregionalseminars,whichbringtogether

researchers,politicians,securityexpertsandactors.

Sofar,theissueseemstohavebeenoffthepoliticalagenda,butsituations

likethoseinMexicoandHaitiorthefightagainstdrugshaveledtoconcrete

cooperation,experienceandexchangeofbestpractices.

5.2 OtherIssuesofa“PostliberalAgenda”(Sanahuja2008)

Theissueswhichwouldbenefitfrommorebiregionalcooperationinclude

energy,infrastructure,migration,environment,healthcare,andsocialand

regionalasymmetries.Inrecentyears,atEULAC,biregionalorbilaterallevels

(cf.thestrategicpartnershipswithBrazilandMexicoandtheirjointaction

plans,ortheEUChileAssociationforDevelopmentandInnovation),numerous

狊犲犮狋狅狉犪犾dialogueshavebeencreatedandshowntheirvalue,leadingtobetter

understanding,technicalassistanceandeventoinitiativesatthemultilateral

level(Buck2008).AttheirministerialmeetinginPraguein2009,theEU

TroikaandMERCOSURagreedonsuchconcreteinitiativesandworkshopsin

ordertotakethediscussionsforward(EUCouncil2009).

Opponentsoffreetradeareas(FTAs)underlinedtherisktotheweaker

partyinasymmetricalrelations.Againstthat,onemightreplythat,when

talkingwithLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,theEUknowsasaconsequence

324   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

ofitsownbeginningsandlaterenlargementswhat“asymmetry”means,andit

probablyknowsbetterthananyotherorganisationhowtodealwithit.Living

standardsattheleveloftheregionsintheEUdifferbyaratioof1to30.EU

solidarityfundscushionsomeoftheunwantedeffectsofeconomicintegration.

The EULAC Summit2008in Lima established a special programme,

EUrosociAL,withinitialfundingofEUR30million.

Adequateandfunctioningphysical犻狀犳狉犪狊狋狉狌犮狋狌狉犲isthekeytodevelopment;

itreduces,amongotherthings,thecostoftransactionsandofthetransportof

goodsandworkers.TherewasalwaysinsufficientLatinAmericaninvestmentin

thisfield,incontrasttothesituationinAsia.Traditionally,LatinAmerican

transportinfrastructurewasdesignedforextraregionaltrade,basicallywith

Europe,butmeanwhilehasbeenextendedtoencompassresourcesneededby

China.Studiesshowthattransportcosts,togetherwiththebureaucratic

burden,arefarhigherthanthecustomsdutiesappliedineachcasestudied.The

InitiativefortheIntegrationoftheRegionalInfrastructureofSouthAmerica

(IIRSA)shouldnotablyimprovetheproductivityandcompetitivenessoftheSouth

Americancountriesintheareasofenergy,transportandtelecommunications.Butso

farithasgivenprioritytoroadprojects,whichaccountfor74percentofplanned

investmentsupuntil2010.Butroadsarenotthebestwayeitherofmovinglowvalue

nonperishablegoodsorofprotectingtheenvironment.Todate,IIRSAhasdonelittle

bywayofimplementation;ofthe348potentialprojectswhichhavebeenidentified,31

havebeenselectedsofar,butlessthan10percentoftheslatedinvestmenthasbeen

made.PartoftheproblemisLatinAmericastraditionallowsavingsrateandtax

revenues,whichputsitatalongtermdisadvantageinrelationtoEastAsia.Projects

alsosufferfromrapidlychangingpoliticalrelationsor,asinthecaseofenergy(for

example,“gasoductodelsur”),fromnewdiscoverieswhichmakesuchprojectsless

vitalnationally.

InternationalexpertsandorganisationshavestronglyurgedLatinAmerican

authoritiesto remedy the situation. As in the history of the EU,

interconnectivityisagoodmotivebutnotasufficientconditionforintegration.

Theenergysectorcouldbeastrongpullfactor,kickstartingintegrationbasedon

“functional”logic,astheEuropeanCommunityforCoalandSteeldidfortheEU

(Heidrich2007).Butsofar,“inSouthAmerica,energyisaninterconnection

issuewhichdoesnotfosterintegration”(Honty2006).

5.3 Trade

Bilateralagreementsbetween Latin AmericancountriesandnonLatin

Americanpartnersaregrowing,risingfrom20in1990to86in2000,and159in

CurrentandFutureCooperationundertheEUMERCOSURAgreement 325  

2007.In2005,tradecoveredbypreferentialagreementsreached63percent—12

percentintraregionaland51percentextraregional—whichwasexpectedtorise

to72percentin2007.Traditionalintegrationschemesseemtohavelost

relevancefortheinternationalagendasoftheirmembers.

Inlightofproblemswiththepronouncedpolitical,economicandsocial

heterogeneityofLatinAmericancountries—andthuswiththeacceptanceand

negotiationoffullblown Association Agreements with an FTA—it was

recommendedtoseekformulaswhichmakearegionalbasedstrategycompatible

withbilateralapproaches.Proceedinginadifferentiatedmanner,withtailored

gradualcalendarsandscopeaccordingtothevariouscapacitiesofthoseinvolved

isonewayforward,assuggestedbyrepresentativesoftheprivatesectorin

BraziltotheEUMERCOSURmeetingon12November2009.Inordertomake

progress,Argentinaseemedtosuggestabandoningtheusualnegotiating

approachof“nothingisagreeduntileverythingisagreed”toclosechapterson

whichprovisionalagreementhasalreadybeenreached,aswellastoaddress

tradeandotheropenissueswithpossibleadaptationclauses(forexample,to

smooththingsoverindifficultsituationswithregardtocompetition).Itremains

tobeseenwhethersuchanunusualapproachwillwork.

Initsrecentcommunicationon“LatinAmericaandtheEU—AnAssociation

ofGlobalPartners”,theEuropeanCommissiontakesasimilarline.Inaddition,

itsuggestsaparticularMechanismforInvestmentinLatinAmerica(MIAL)—

liketheEuropeanNeighbourhoodMechanism,withstartingfundsfromtheEU

budget.Itshouldprivilegecooperationininterconnectivity,infrastructure,

socialfieldsandtheenvironment,aswellasfosteringsmallandmediumsized

enterprises.Thisisinlinewiththeoverarchingtopicforthe6thEULAC

SummitinMay2010inSpain.

ApartfromthisnewapproachtoEUMERCOSURrelations,negotiations

andcooperation,norealchancefortrilateralcooperationbyeitherpartner

outsidetheirregionsisapparent.Thisis,ifatall,possibleonlyinbilateral

relations,suchEUBrazil,orwithMexicoorChile.Intheconcreteactionplans

agreedwiththem,trilateralcooperationismentioned.Indeed,BrazilandtheEU

recentlyconvenedtostudyjointcooperationindevelopingbioelectricityandbio

fuelinMozambique(seealsoEUCouncil2008).

6.犆狅狀犮犾狌狊犻狅狀

IntegrationschemessuchastheAndeanCommunityofNations(CAN)or

MERCOSUR stillseem inadequateforreaching such objectives asthe

326   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

establishmentofcommonmarketsandbeyond,andprogressinintegration,of

thekindrepresentedbytheEU,seemneitherintendednorexpected.TheEU

haslostinfluenceasasoft,normsettingpowerduetothearrivalofstrong

playerswhoseemnottohaveanyinterestinspreadinggloballyacceptednorms.

Iargueinmysecondpaperinthisbookthattheseplayersmayseetheadvantages

ofspreadingsuchnormslaterintheprocessoftheirowndevelopment.

Forthemoment,integrationagreementsmayserveinLatinAmericalessas

aimsinthemselvesthanasplatformsforcommonefforts,confidencebuilding

andbetterpositioninginglobalmarkets.TimeisnotnecessarilyonLACsside.

Themajorriskisnotthateconomic,socialandotherpoliciesmayfail,butthat

theymaynotprovideresultsquicklyenough.Biregionalrelationscanbeusefulin

thisconnection,buttheycanonlycomplementnationalandregionalefforts.

Notes

1.Asamatteroffact,MERCOSURtookupearlierhesitationsbytheEuropeanCommission

DirectorateGeneralTradeaboutariskofblockagewhensuchtradenegotiationswereheld

simultaneouslyattwolevels,multilateralandbioregional—sincewhatisofferedatone

levelislostasanegotiatingchipattheother.

2.Itshouldbementionedthatfiguresvaryaccordingtosourcesandtime,especiallywith

regardtoChina.

3.SeethearticlesbyF.PealistedintheBibliographyandforupdatedinformationconsult

hiswebsite,www.felixpena.com.arg.Anexcellenthistoricalanalysisisgivenby

Sanahuja(2008).

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Pea,Felix(2009b),犛犲犺犪犪犫犻犲狉狋犪狌狀犪狏犲狀狋犪狀犪犱犲狅狆狅狉狋狌狀犻犱犪犱?—犔犪狊狀犲犵狅犮犻犪犮犻狅狀犲狊犲狀狋狉犲

犲犾犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚狔犾犪犝犈,online:http://www.felixpena.com.ar,18December.

Roloff,Ralf (2007),Aufdem Wegzurvariablen Geometrie—ImplikationenderEU

ErweiterungfürdieESVPundNATO,in:犐狀狋犲犵狉犪狋犻狅狀,1,5359.

RuedaJunquera,Fernando (2009),Quesepuedeaprenderdelprocesodeintegración

europea?,in:犖狌犲狏犪犛狅犮犻犲犱犪犱,219,JanuaryFebruary,5975.

Sanahuja,JoséAntonio(2009),Del“regionalismoabierto”al“regionalismopostliberal”—

crisisycambioenlaintegraciónregionalenAL,in:犃狀狌犪狉犻狅犱犲犾犪犐狀狋犲犵狉犪犮犻ó狀犚犲犵犻狅狀犪犾

犱犲犃犔狔犲犾犌狉犪狀犆犪狉犻犫犲,7,20082009,1154.

Sukup,Viktor (2001),犃 犛狅狌狋犺 犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀 犆狅犿犿狅狀 犕犪狉犽犲狋—犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚:犗狉犻犵犻狀,

犗犫犼犲犮狋犻狏犲狊,犘犲狉狊狆犲犮狋犻狏犲狊,2April,Brussels:EC.

328   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

犘犪狉狋犐 犐 犐

犈狀犲狉犵狔犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔犪狀犱犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犆犺犪狀犵犲

!331  

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉9

犆犺犻狀犪狊犃狆狆狉狅犪犮犺狋狅犈狀犲狉犵狔犪狀犱犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犆犺犪狀犵犲

)& *+,-.&",

1.犐狀狋狉狅犱狌犮狋犻狅狀

Climatechangehasemergedasoneofthetopsecuritychallengesoftheearly

twentyfirstcentury.UNSecretaryGeneralBanKiMoonrecentlystatedthat

“climatechangeisalteringthegeopoliticallandscape”,as manifestedby

increasedcompetitionoverArcticresources,increasedintrastateandinterstate

migrationandrisingsealevels(FederalNewsService2009).Promotedbythe

bullmarketinenergypricesandtheascenttoanewleveloftheclimatechange

issueafewyearsago,anewefforttodevelopnewenergysourcesandrenewable

energyhasbeenevidentaroundtheworld.Clearly,climatechangeandenergy

securityissueshavecaughtpeoplesattention.Therelationshipbetweenenergy

securityandclimatechangehaschangedbeyondrecognition,anditposesagreat

challengetobothpractitionersandacademics.Moreover,climatechangeand

energysecurityissueshavemovedfromthemargintothecentreofsecurity

policies,particularlysincetheendoftheColdWar.Ontheonehand,climate

changeandenergysecurityhavebeenrecognisedasanimportantsourceof

threatstohumansurvivaloverthepastfewdecades.Humandependenceona

modernenergysupplyforasustainablefutureinmodernsocietiesisvastly

greaterthanitwasinanagrariansociety.Ontheotherhand,itisnow

universallyacknowledgedthatinternationalcooperationorcollectiveactionare

notenoughtoresolvethecrisiscausedbyclimatechangeandenergysecurity.

Internationalcollectiveactiononclimatechangeandenergysecurityisasocial

andpoliticalchallenge,aswellasaneconomicone.Itinvolvesvarioussectorsof

thenationalsocialeconomyandsohasanimportantbearingonthepolitical

legitimacyandstabilityofallnations.Theneedforaccesstoenergyandother

naturalresourceshasincreasedandmorestatesareingreatercompetitionfor

332   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

themthaneverbefore.

Asthescarcityoftraditionalenergyandclimatechangeemergedasserious

problems,economicgrowthpatternsinvariouscountriesgraduallyevolvedina

directionthatsuitednewenergysources.TheEUandtheUnitedStates,as

globalsuperpowers,aspiretocornerfutureenergymarketsthroughnegotiations

onreducingcarbonemissions,coupledwithadesiretodominatethedrivetoward

cleanenergyandenergyefficiencyandinnovationbybuildingaclimatechange

regime.However,manydevelopingcountries,includingChina,whicharestill

attheindustrialisationstage,arestillpursuingtheWesterncountrieseconomic

model—whichisgrowthoriented,unsustainableandresourceconstrained—

datingfromthelateeighteenthcentury.Chinahasanurgentneedtopromote

developmentwhilejoiningintheglobalstruggleagainstglobalwarmingand

contributingtoglobalenergysecurity.Sincethe1990s,Chinahaspaid

increasingattentiontoenvironmentalprotectionandthegrowinghazardsposed

byclimatechange.Infact,inits2008whitepaperonclimatechange,the

Chinesegovernmentacknowledgedthat“Chinaisoneofthecountriesmost

susceptibletotheadverseeffectsofclimatechange,mainlyinthefieldsof

agriculture,livestockbreeding,forestry,naturalecosystems,waterresources

andcoastalzones”(BBCMonitoringAsiaPacificPolitical2008).Asoneofthe

worldsleadingeconomicpowers,Chinaiscentraltoregionalandglobalefforts

tofightglobalwarmingandclimatechange.Anysuccessfulinternationaleffort

tomitigatethreatstohumanandnationalsecurityposedbyclimatechangemust

inevitablyincludeChina(Harris2004;Elliott2002).Chinaspopulationhasnow

reached1.3billion,anditseconomyisoneoftheworldslargestandfastest

growing.Consequently,Chinaisexperiencing widespreadandoftenacute

environmentalchallengeswithseverelocal,nationalandregionalconsequences

(Smil1993;JapanEnvironmentalCouncil2000;WorldBank1997).Ithas

producedvastamountsofgreenhousegases,especiallycarbondioxidefromthe

burningoffossilfuels(coal,oilandnaturalgas).Duetoitshigheconomic

developmentandlowenergyefficiency,Chinaintheearly1990sbecamethe

secondlargestnationalsourceofgreenhousegasesanditwillbecomethelargest

sourceby2020 (UNFCCC2003;Chinas OfficeofNationalCoordination

CommitteeforClimateChange2003).ConcerningChinashighcarbonenergy

mix,itisnowtheprincipalemitterofgreenhousegasesandshouldbearglobal

responsibilityforaddressingtheproblemofclimatechangeandenergysecurity.

Chinaspracticewithregardtoclimatechangeandenergymustsafeguardand

coordinatebalanceddevelopmentbetweenenergyconsumption,theearths

climateandeconomicgrowth.

ChinasApproachtoEnergyandClimateChange 333  

Withtheseconsiderationsinmind,thischapterwillfirstexaminesomeof

theimplicationsandconsequencesofclimatechangeandenergysecurity;second,

itwilldescribeChinasenergymixandemissionsstructure;andfinallyitwill

discussChinasenergyandclimatechangepractices.Intheconclusion,

comparisonswillbedrawntotheLatinAmericanregion.

2.犜犺犲犔狅犵犻犮犪狀犱犐犿狆犾犻犮犪狋犻狅狀狊狅犳犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犆犺犪狀犵犲犪狀犱犈狀犲狉犵狔犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔

Thecontemporaryworldisbasedonoil,andglobalenergysecurityis

crucialtoeconomicgrowthandpeopleslivelihoodsinallcountries.Energyis

alsofundamentaltotheprosperityandsecurityofnations.Theadventof

globalisation,thegrowinggapbetweenrichandpoorandtheneedtofightglobal

warmingareallintertwinedwithenergyconcerns.Thereisapressingneedfor

strategicthinkingabouttheinternationalenergysystem.Supplyanddemandon

theinternationalenergymarketsareunbalanced.Areasrichinoilresourcesare

stillatthecentreofgeopolitical,politicaland militaryconflicts.Energy

exportingnationsuseenergyweaponstopursuetheirpoliticalandeconomic

goals.Majorenergysuppliers—fromRussiathroughIrantoVenezuela—have

beenincreasinglyableandwillingtousetheirenergyresourcestopursuetheir

strategicandpoliticalobjectives(ForeignRelationsCouncil2006).Itisalso

importanttotakealongtermperspective,deepenenergycooperation,increase

energyefficiencyandfacilitatethedevelopmentanduseofnewenergyresources.

Evidently,thereisacorrelationbetweenenergycompetitiondrivenby

climatechangeandtheinternationalpoliticalandeconomicenvironment,know

how,capacitiesandpossessionofresources.Theinteractionofthesefactors

constitutesacompleteenergychain.Theenergychaincomprisestheinstitutions

andactivitiesrelatedtothesearchfor,developmentandutilisationofenergy

resources.Thediscoveryofnewenergysources,revolutionarychangesinthe

energychainandthecorrespondingchangesinpoliticaleconomyandinnovation

systemshavecombinedtolaythegroundworkforamoreeffectiveuseofenergy,

whichisfundamentaltotheriseofmajorpowers.

Energyisfundamentaltotheprosperityandsecurityofnations.Thenext

generationenergy willdeterminenotonlythefutureoftheinternational

economicsystem,butalsopowershifts.Competitionintheenergychainwill

determinetheresultofthepowerstrugglebasedoninnovationandinfluencethe

evolutionofpowerinternationally.New energysourcesarenotonlyan

importantconstituentofthenextgenerationenergysystem,butalsowillchange

futureinternationalpowerconfigurations.Therequisiteconditionofsignificant

structuralchangeintheinternationalsystemisanenergyrevolutionbasedonthe

334   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

emergenceofnextgenerationenergyledcountries (Yergin2006;Kennedy

1968).Technologicalinnovationisofkeyimportanceintheenergypower

structure.Modelskislongcycletheory,Kondratievslongwavetheoryand

Schumpeterseconomiccycletheoryhaveallconfirmedthehistoricalcontribution

oftechnologicalrevolutionsandinstitutionalinnovationtotheriseandfallof

greatpowers(Modelski1987;Kindleberger1973).Theyallemphasisetheeffect

of“greattechnologicalbreakthroughs”ontheworldeconomiccycle,indicating

thatthecycleowesitsrisetotechnologicalbreakthroughs,which mainly

happenedwithregardtoenergy,suchaselectricity,thesteamengineandthe

internalcombustionengine.MichaelE.Porter,inhisbook犜犺犲犆狅犿狆犲狋犻狋犻狏犲

犃犱狏犪狀狋犪犵犲狅犳犖犪狋犻狅狀狊,explainedwhynationsshouldmakeaninnovationbased

modelofcomparativeadvantagesapriorityindevelopingtheircompetitive

advantage(Porter1990).

Asthedebateoncollectiveactionagainstclimatechangehasheatedup,

Westerncountrieshavemonopolisedthefutureenergysystembasedonnewand

alternativeenergy.PeterEvansoncepointedoutthateverymajorpowerthat

cametodominatetheinternationalsystem hadsomeknowhowadvantages

(Evans1985).Fornow,itseemsthatalowcarboneconomyandcleanenergy

willultimatelydeterminethefutureofenergypowertransitions.Jonathanand

otherscholarsrecognisethattheEUsenvironmentalpolicy,gearedtoward

boostingtheblocscompetitivenessandpromotingclimatenegotiations,could

alsoboostitscreativityandcompetitiveadvantage(Golub1998).In2007,the

犛狋犲狉狀犚犲狏犻犲狑犚犲狆狅狉狋狅狀狋犺犲犈犮狅狀狅犿犻犮狊狅犳犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犆犺犪狀犵犲犪狀犱狋犺犲犔狅狑犆犪狉犫狅狀

犈犮狅狀狅犿狔犚犲狆狅狉狋bytheRoyalInstituteofInternationalAffairsbothconfirmed

thattheEUpromotesclimatenegotiationsnotjustbecauseitisaforerunnerin

thelowcarboneconomy,butalsobecauseitwantstoachievedominancein

globalgovernanceandlaythefoundationsforthefutureeconomy.SeniorUS

politiciansPaulaDobriansky,RichardLeeArmitageandJoseph Nyeonce

proposedthatUSinvolvementinclimatenegotiationsshouldenhancethenations

“smartpower”andthecompetitivenessofitsindustry (ForeignRelations

Council2006).

Westerncountriesalwaysusetherapidlygrowingcarbonemissionsinemerging

economiesasa majorexplanationofglobalwarming.Nationalcompetitive

advantagesareassociatedwithcarbonemissionsreductions.Forthosewhoadvocate

climatediplomacy,environmentalcapacityisanimportantpartofastates

comprehensivenationalpower.JamesN.Rosenauusestheconceptofa“balanceof

payments”insteadofa“balanceofpower”inglobalenvironmentalgovernance,and

arguesthatdevelopingcountriesshouldsharethecostsandresponsibilitiesofglobal

ChinasApproachtoEnergyandClimateChange 335  

environmentalprotection(RosenauandCzempiel1992:1214).Historically,the

emergenceofgreatpowershasbeenaccompaniedbytheriseofanewgenerationof

energy.Sincetheestablishmentofthemoderninternationalsystem,theenergy

chainhasundergonetwomajorchanges.Thefirstchangewasthefirstindustrial

revolutionofthe1860susheredinbytheUnitedKingdomandmarkedbya

transitionfrom“thefuelwoodorbiofueltimes”tothe“coalera”.Thesecond

changewasthesecondindustrialrevolutionofthe1920sstartedbytheUnited

Statesandmarkedbyatransitionfromthe“coalera”tothe“oilage”.Today,a

thirdrevolutionistakingplacebasedoncleanandlowcarbonenergy.Underthe

longcycletheory,possessionanduseofnewenergyiscloselyrelatedtonational

technologicalandinstitutionaladvances.Countrieswithadominantpositionin

newenergyarelikelytohaveaninstitutionalandtechnicaladvantagestemming

fromtheirpossessionanduseofnewenergy.Theyhavetobreakthroughthe

constraintsimposedbypreviouseconomicandpoliticalstructuresandideology,

whichwillleadtomajorchangesintheglobalindustrialchain,allocationof

resourcesandnationalcompetitiveness.Therefore,wehaveeveryreasonto

believethatthosenewenergypowerhouseswillultimatelychangetheglobal

arrangementofpowerthroughinternationalcompetitioninthefuture.As

historyshows,everysignificantstructuralchangeintheinternationalsystemhas

beenduetoarevolutionintheenergychain.Thecountryornonstateentitythat

seizedanewenergychainorapartofitattemptedtochallengetheinternational

statusquo.

Theimplicationsofglobalgovernanceforclimatechangeandenergyare

twofold.First,developedcountriescontinuetodominateinternationalclimate

changenegotiations.Thefightagainstglobalwarmingcanbedescribedinterms

ofcommongoods.Eventhoughtherearemanyinternalcontradictionsamong

richcountries,theyshareacommoninterestintryingtomaintainandeven

widenthedevelopmentgapandinstavingofftheriseofemergingpowers.Asa

result,wealthycountriesmaintaintheirleadingpositioninthepostKyoto

climateregimebuildingprocess.Developedcountriesinitiallycommunicatedwith

andconsultedmajorgreenhousegasemittersinabidtoestablisharationaland

efficientpostKyotosystem thatwouldsafeguardandcoordinatebalanced

developmentbetweenenergyconsumption,theEarthsclimateandeconomic

growth.Atthesametime,developedcountriestriedtopersuadedeveloping

countriestoacceptsoftandhardenvironmentalconstraints.Second,duetothe

earlydevelopmentadvantageofdevelopedcountriesandthelatedevelopment

advantageofdevelopingcountries,anymajorenergyinnovationwouldbring

aboutanewindustrialrevolutionandthereallocationofglobalindustry.

336   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

Developedcountrieshaveevenlaunchedaclimateorcarbontaxtosetlimitson

theeconomicgrowthofthedevelopingworld,particularlyChina.Developing

countriesaregraduallyassumingtheobligationsofstabilisinggreenhousegases.

Butbecausetheylacknewenergysourcesandadvancedtechnology,developing

countriesonlybecomeemergingmarketsforWesternmultinationalcompanies,

whiledevelopedcountriesaremakingfulluseofclimatechangeopportunitiesto

strengthentheirtechnicalandcompetitiveedge.Asaresult,theycontinueto

dominatetheinternationalsystem.Obviously,thesituationisthesameforthe

environmentaltraderegime,whichwouldletdevelopingcountriesbearthe

programmedbaselinecosts,whiledevelopedcountriesbearincrementalcosts.

Developedcountriesaredoingthattoincreasetheenvironmentalconstraintson

developingcountriesandeventuallyrestrictthedevelopmentofdeveloping

countriesintermsofbindingrules.

3.犆犺犻狀犪狊犈狀犲狉犵狔犛狋狉狌犮狋狌狉犲犪狀犱犈犿犻狊狊犻狅狀狊犛狋犪狋狌狊

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)s Fourth

AssessmentReportestimatesthatcarbondioxideemissionsfromenergyuse

couldrisebybetween45percentand110percentbetween2000and2030.The

reportindicatesthattwothirdstothreequartersoftheincreasedemissions

wouldcomefromdevelopingcountries.Thereportalsomakesitclearthatthe

greatertheeffortstoreduceglobalgreenhousegasemissions,thelesssevere

wouldbetheimpactofclimatechange.

AsoneoftheworldsleadingdevelopingcountriesChinaiscentralto

regionalandglobaleffortstofightglobalwarmingandclimatechange.Any

successfulinternationalefforttomitigatethreatstohumanandnationalsecurity

posedbyclimatechangemustinevitablyincludeChina.Chinasroleinclimate

changederivesfromitsenergyintensiveeconomicstructure.Chinastransition

fromalightmanufacturingeconomytoonefeaturingmoreenergyintensive

industries,includingiron,steel,cement,chemicalsandaluminium,isamajor

factorbehindthistrend.Chinaaccountsforabout35percentofworldsteel

productionandabout50percentoftheworldsproductionofcement(Federal

NewsService2008).Theseindustriesandassociatedactivitiesare“layinga

foundationforwhatwemightcallaconsumptionledChineseenergychallenge

downtheroad”(FederalNewsService2008).Chineseconsumersincreasing

tendencytopurchaseautomobilesandairconditioners,amongotherproducts,is

establishingthebasisforChinasfutureenergychallenge(FederalNewsService

2008).Italreadyproducesvastamountsofgreenhousegases,especiallycarbon

dioxidefromtheburningoffossilfuels.

ChinasApproachtoEnergyandClimateChange 337  

Chinaisamajorenergyproducer.Sincethe1990s,Chinahasalwaysmet

over90percentofitsoverallenergyneedsonitsown.Chinawilladheretothe

policyofmeetingitsenergyneedsmainlythroughdomesticsupply,andpriority

willbegiventoraisingenergyefficiency.Chinasshorttermgoalistomeetthe

targetofa20percentreductioninenergyconsumptionperunitofGDPby2020.

However,Chinascurrentpercapitaconsumptionofenergyisverylow.Itis

only66percentoftheworldaverage,13.4percentofthatoftheUnitedStates,

26.7percentofthatofJapanand28.1percentofthatofBritain.Chinasper

capitaoilimportsareonlyaquarteroftheworldaverageandonetwentiethofthose

ofboththeUSandJapan.Ithasbeenonly14yearssinceChinabecameanetoil

importerin1993,andonlyfouryearssinceChinafinallybecameacountryimporting

over100milliontonnesofoilperyear.However,Chinasoilimportshavesurgedsince

2003whenitreplacedJapanasthesecondlargestconsumerofpetroleumproductsin

theworld.TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)predictsthatby2030importswill

accountfor85percentofChinastotaloilconsumption(Chinascrudeoilimports

increasedby14.5percentin2006alone).Thus,energyshortageisapossible

bottleneckineconomicdevelopmentandinthelongterm,ifthisisnotresolved,

Chinaseconomicfuturewillbeveryunstable.

In2008,ChinaovertooktheUnitedStatestobecomethelargestemitterofcarbon

dioxideintheworld.By2020Chinasaveragepercapitaenergyconsumptionis

expectedtomatchthecurrentglobalaverage,meaningthatChinaalonewillaccountfor

almostonethirdoftheworldstotalgreenhousegasemissionsbetween1990and2020

(PaulandYu2005).Thus,Chinaclearlymatterswhenitcomestoclimatechange.

WithoutsubstantialeffortsonthepartofChinatolimitfuturecarbonemissions,any

measuresundertakenbyothercountriestoaddresstheclimatechangequestionwillbe

negated—hence,theimportanceofChinasapproachtoclimatechangeanditsrolein

internationalnegotiations.

Basedoncurrentprojections,therefore,fossilfuelsareexpectedtoremaina

keypartofChinasenergymix,withoilplayinganincreasinglyprominentrole.

Globally,oildemandisexpectedtogrowby1.3percentayear,from83.7

millionbarrelsperdayin2005to98.5millionbarrelsperdayin2015,and116.3

millionbarrelsperdayin2030.Roughly42percentofthisincreaseddemand

willcomefromIndiaandChina,while“Chinaaccountsforthebiggestincreasein

oildemandinabsolutetermsofanycountryorregion”(InternationalEnergy

Agency2007:79).

Inthefuture,theexpansionofChinastransportationsectorisexpectedto

sharplyincreasethecountrysdemandforoil.Bytheyear2030,automobile

ownershipispredictedtoincreaseto400millionfromonly27millionin2004.

338   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

Consequently,oilconsumptioninChinaisexpectedtorisefromthecurrent7.

58millionbarrelsofoilperdayto1012millionbarrelsperdayby2015,the

majorityofwhichisexpectedtobeimported.Currently,Chinaimports53per

centoftheoilthatisconsumed.Similartooil,thedemandforcoalisalso

projectedtorisefrom4,154milliontonnesofcoalequivalent(Mtce)in2005

to7173 Mtcein2030,withdemandfromChinaandIndiaaccountingfor

threequartersoftheprojectedincreaseupto2030.CoalisthebasisofChinas

powergenerationinfrastructure;80percentofelectricitygeneratedinChina

canbelinkedtocoal,whichisalsotiedtoapproximately80percentofallof

ChinasCO2emissions.Mostexpertsbelievethatfortheforeseeablefuture—at

least30years—thisfundamentalrelianceoncoalwillremain,ifnotincrease

dramatically(OfficeoftheSecretaryofDefense2008:10).By2030,coalwill

constitute63percentofChinasenergydemandmix(InternationalEnergy

Agency2007).ThedominantroleofcoalinChinasenergymixcomplicates

Beijingsabilitytoachievecertainabatementobjectives.AstheChinese

governmentarticulatedinits2008 whitepaper:“Chinascoaldominated

energymixcannotbesubstantiallychangedinthenearfuture,thusmakingthe

controlofgreenhousegasemissionsratherdifficult”(BBC MonitoringAsia

PacificPolitical2008).

4.犆犺犻狀犪狊犃狆狆狉狅犪犮犺狋狅犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犆犺犪狀犵犲犪狀犱犈狀犲狉犵狔

Chinaisthenewestplayerinworldenergymarkets.MajorChineseoil

companiesstartedinternationaloperationsinthe1990sandhavemadeimpressive

progress.Peacefulenergydevelopmentandinternationalenergycooperationare

theinternationaldimensionsofChinasenergypolicy.Chinasenergyintensity—

definedastheratioofenergyconsumptiontoameasureofthedemandfor

services—isonlyonefifthofthatoftheEuropeanUnion.ButBeijingisseeking

amodelthatwillallowittoresolvetheconflictsbetweenenergyconsumption

andenvironmentaldegradation.

4.1 InternalCapacityBuildingtoMeettheClimateChangeandEnergyChallenge

Chinaisdevelopingdiverseenergyresourcesandputtinginplaceasystem

thatsuppliesstable,economicalandcleanenergy.Chinaisworkinghardto

developarecyclingeconomysothatitwillgarnerthehighestpossibleeconomic

andsocialbenefitswiththelowestpossibleenergyconsumption.Chinahaslaid

outmanytasks,policiesandmeasuresfordevelopingaresourceconserving

societyandarecyclingeconomy,forexampletheConservationLaw(1997)and

ChinasApproachtoEnergyandClimateChange 339  

theRenewableEnergyLaw(2005).

Chinahaspersistedinrelyingonitsdomesticresourcesandconstantly

increasingthesupplyofdomesticenergy.Chinaisnotonlyamajorenergy

consumingcountry,butalsoamajorenergyproducer.Sincethe1990s,China

hasobtainedabove90percentofitsenergyfromdomesticsources(thefigurefor

2005is93percent).Thepotentialofitsdomesticenergysupplyisstillgreat.

From1980to2001,withaverageGDPgrowthratesofabout10percent,China

hadabouta5percentgrowthrateinenergyconsumption.Chinaseconomyhas

managedtothrivedespitethelimitationswithregardtoenergysupply.China

hasconsistentlypursuedthegoalofrelyingonitsdomesticresourcesand

constantlyincreasingthedomesticsupplyofenergy.Chinas11thFiveYear

Programme (20052010)for National Economic and Social Development

announcedthe“doublingofthe2000percapitagrossdomesticproduct(GDP)in

2010andreducingenergyconsumptionperunitofGDPbysome20percent”.

ChinesePremierWenJiabaocalledforenergysavingsof50milliontonnesofcoal

equivalentinthepowerindustryand20milliontonnesofcoalequivalentin1000

majorstateownedindustries.“TheChinesegovernment,whilecommittedto

economicdevelopment,istryinginaresponsiblewaytochangetheeconomic

growthpatternbyadjustingtheeconomicstructureandenergymix.”(Industry

Updates2007)Underthesenewcircumstances,theChinesegovernmentis

shiftingfromthepreviousdevelopmentprincipleof“fastandhealthygrowth”to

“healthyandfastgrowth”(IndustryUpdates2007).

Furthermore,ChinaissueditsNationalActionPlanonClimateChangein

June2007,andtheChinesegovernmenthasselectedthefollowinggoalstobe

achievedby2010:reducingenergyconsumptionby20percent;increasingthe

shareofrenewableenergy(includinglargescalehydropower)to10percentof

itsprimaryenergymix;increasingcoalbedmethaneproductionto10bncubic

metresayear;andpromotingnuclearpower(XinhuaNewsAgency2007).

4.2 WinwinCooperationforEnergySecurity

Asarisingpowerpursuingapeacefuldevelopmentpath,Chinasenergy

strategyischaracterisedbymutualbenefitsandapolicyofbuildingaharmonious

world.Chinahastakenanactivepartinenergycooperationwithothercountries

onthebasisofmutualinteresttoensurethestabilityofregionalandglobal

energymarkets.PresidentHuJintaohasdeclaredthat“[the]coreofChinas

energystrategyistogivehighprioritytoconservation,relymainlyondomestic

supply,developdiverseenergyresources,protecttheenvironment,stepup

internationalcooperation[basedon]mutualbenefitandensurethestablesupply

340   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

ofeconomicalandcleanenergies”(Hu2006).Hehasalsodevelopedanew

energysecurityconceptthatcallsformutuallybeneficialcooperation,diversified

formsofdevelopmentandcommonenergysecuritythroughcoordination.

Inordertoencouragetheworldskeyenergyconsumingcountriesto

strengthenmutualcooperation,Chinahostedamajorenergyconferencewiththe

participationoftopoilconsumers(theUS,Japan,SouthKoreaandIndia)in

December2006.ChinaandOPEChavebeenengagedsince2005inanenergy

dialogueaimedatensuringasteadyenergysupply.Chinasdiplomacytoolsfor

energysecurityincludedialogueandcooperation,andthegoalistomaintainthe

stabilityandsecurityofinternationalenergysupplies.Inparticular,China

wishestoengageandcooperatewithkeyplayersinworldenergypolitics,which

includesOPECandnonOPECenergyproductioncountries,aswellastheG8,

theG20andthemajoroilconsumingcountries.Atpresent,Chinasmainsources

ofoilimportsaretheMiddleEastandAfrica,whereanumberofcountriesare

unstable.Moreover,thetransportationofoiltakesplacelargelyontheopen

sea,andalsothroughtheStraitsofMalacca,whereChinafacesthedangerof

piratesandterroristattacks.Therefore,inordertoguaranteethesecurityof

energysupplies,Chinamustdiversifyitsenergyimportsourcesandseekto

importoilfromRussia,CentralAsiaandSoutheastAsia,amongothers.

TherearethreekindsofoverseasareasinwhichChinaisengagedwith

regardtoenergy.Thefirstcomprisesmarketseekingcountrieswhichwantto

retaincontrolofoilresourcesandusesovereignwealthfundstoexchangetheir

crudeoilresourcesformarketinfluence(RussiaandSaudiArabia).SaudiArabia

accountsforabout17percentofChinasimportedoil.In2006,thetwostates

signedapactonenergycooperationthatcallsforincreasedcooperationandjoint

investmentinoil,naturalgasandmineraldeposits.SaudiArabiasAramco

OverseasCo.hasprovided USD750 millionofthetotalUSD3billionin

investmenttoconstructapetrochemicalcomplexinFujianprovinceinsouth

easternChinathatwillprocess8milliontonnesofSaudicrudeoilperyear.In

October2005,CNPCcompletedaUSD4.18billiontakeoverofPetroKazakhstan,Inc.

Thesecondcategoryconsistsofcountriesinpoorregionsthatneed

unconditionalforeignaidandinvestment(Angola,NigeriaandotherAfrican

countries).ChinaandNigeriasigneddealsthatgaveChinafouroilexploration

licensesinNigeriainreturnforacommitmenttoinvestUSD4billioninNigerian

infrastructure.ChinaandKenyaalsosignedanagreementforlicensesallowing

ChinasNationalOffshoreOilCorporation(CNOOC)toexploreforoiloffthe

coastofKenya.

ThethirdcategoryisthosecountriesinwhichtheUSandother Western

ChinasApproachtoEnergyandClimateChange 341  

governmentsforbidtheircompaniestoinvest(Iran,Sudan,Myanmar).Chineseoil

companieshavesignedlongtermcontractsvaluedatUSD200billionwithIran,

makingChinaIransbiggestoilandgascustomer.InJuly2007,CNOOCobtained

permissiontosearchforoilinpartsofSomalia.ChinahasinvestedheavilyinSudan,

establishingoilexplorationrightsin1995,andnowoverhalfofSudansoilexportsgo

toChina,accountingfor5percentofChinastotaloilimports.

Oilresourceintenseareasstilltendtobeaffectedbygeopolitical,political

andmilitaryconflicts.TheinstabilityinIraq,theIrannuclearcrisis,terrorist

threatsandattacks,thehumanitariancrisisandfragiledemocratictransitionsin

subSaharanAfricaandstrikesinNigeriaandBrazilallposemajorchallengesto

Chinasnationaloilcompanies.

4.3 EquitableDevelopmentbyvirtueof“CommonButDifferentResponsibilities”

Chinaandotherdevelopingcountriesadherencetothisstandardreflects,as

manypoliticiansandlegalanalystshavenoted,abasicstructuralshortcoming

withintheKyotoProtocolregimetotheextentthatdevelopingcountriesare,in

essence,exemptedfromuniversalabatementobligations.Thisisparticularly

problematicbecause,asonelegalanalysthasnoted:“Developingcountrieswill

beresponsibleforhalftheworldsemissionsby2020orearlier”(Gerber2008:

333).Nevertheless,ChineseleadersoftenrespondthateachpersonintheUS

nowemitsmorethanfivetonnesofcarbonperyear,whileinChinathefigureis

onlyonetonneperyear.SincethestartoftheIndustrialRevolution—thatis,

overthepasttwocenturies—theUSandEuropehaveaccountedformorethan50

percentoftotal,accumulatedglobalemissions,whileChinahasaccountedfor

lessthan8percent.The50leastdevelopedcountrieshavetogethercontributed

lessthan0.5percentofglobalcumulativeemissionsover200years(M2

Presswire2007).

ForChina,thelargestdevelopingcountry,globalwarmingissuesare

intimatelylinkedtoeffortstomodernisetheeconomyandtheenergystrategy

neededtobringaboutsuchmodernisation.Furthermore,theglobaldilemma

withregard to energy and the environmentshould be solved through

internationalcoordination,cooperationandmutualassistanceincleanenergy

development.Developingcountriesaredeeply dissatisfied with developed

countriesinthisrespectbecausethelatterrefusetopaythenecessaryregardto

theconstraintsimposedbydevelopingcountrieslackofdevelopment.Wealthy

countries,forinstance,placealowpriorityontechnologytransfers,andinsist

onimposingahighpriceontheintellectualpropertyrightspertainingtothese

technologies.ThroughCleanDevelopmentMechanisms(CDMs),theindustrialised

342   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

countriescouldalsomeetpartoftheirobligationsforreducingemissionsunderthe

KyotoProtocolbyreceivingcreditsforinvestinginprojectsthatreducecarbon

emissionsindevelopingcountries.However,developedcountriescouldalso

adopta moreambitiousprogrammeoftransferringadvancedcleanenergy

technologiestothedevelopingworld.Chinahasjoinedwithotherdeveloping

countriestodemandthatdevelopedcountriesprovidenoncommercialtechnology

assistancetodevelopingcountriestohelpthemcopewithclimatechangeand

cultivatelowcarbonemissioneconomies.

Byshiftingthefocusofclimatetalkstoadaptation,andawayfrom

mitigation,boththerichandpoorcountriescouldavoiddoingwhattheyhave

dreadedthemost:demandingthatcountrieswithentrenchedeconomicinterests

reducetheirgreenhousegasemissions.Chinahasresistedproposalstoimposea

globalcarbontax(aproposalsupportedbytheEU)asamitigationmeasurefrom

whichrevenuecouldbeusedtofinancetechnologicaltransfers.Ahighertrade

dependencewouldresultinasharingoftheburdenassociatedwithChinas

energyintensiveindustriesandresultingcarbonemissions.In2005,Chinas

GDPwasRMB18,670billion,anditsexportsofgoodsandservicestotalled

aroundRMB6,858billion.In2006,ChinasGDPwasRMB21,438billionand

itsexportsofgoodsandservicesRMB8,396billion(EconomistIntelligenceUnit

2007).ChinaisagainsttheglobalcarbontaxproposedbytheEUbecauseit

believesitwouldhinderitseconomicdevelopment.

4.4 ChinasShifttoaLowcarbonEconomy

Thegloballowcarbonfutureandtheemergenceoflowcarbontechnology

willenhancetheenergyindustryworldwide,aswellasthestrategicpositionof

theequipmentmanufacturingindustry.Chinaisfacingbothunprecedented

competitivepressureandopportunitiesfordevelopment.Intheprocess,China

hasstrengtheneditslaws,regulations,policies,systemsand management

mechanismstoactivelyaddressclimatechange,andalsotocreateastrong

institutional,policyandmarketenvironmentforthelowcarbondevelopmentof

enterprises.Withregardtoitsindustrialinfrastructureandcapacities,Chinahas

carriedoutindustrialupgrades,eliminatedoutdatedproductioncapacityand

focusedonenergyefficiencyandpositiveinvestmentsingreenenergy.More

importantly,arangeoftoolshavebeen usedto helpestablish market

mechanismsandindustrialsystems,suchasencouragingtechnicalinnovation,

promotinglegislation,changingconsumptionpatternsandestablishingacarbon

market.Atthesametime,Chinahasalsoappropriatelyadjusteditstradepolicy,

imposedrestrictionsontheexportofhighenergyconsumptionproductsand

ChinasApproachtoEnergyandClimateChange 343  

expandedtheimportofmanufacturedgoods.

Technologyisthemostimportantlongtermstrategyfordealingwith

climatechange.Inthisregard,Chinesescienceandtechnologyhaveprovided

someusefultoolsforaddressingclimatechange.Chinaisvigorouslydeveloping

energysavingandenergyefficienttechnologies,renewableenergyandnew

energytechnologies,and“cleancoal”.OthertechnologiesChinaisexploringand

utilisingincludeadvancednuclearenergy,carboncaptureandstorage,bio

sequestrationandcarbonsequestration.Thedevelopmentofenergytechnologies

willhelptoreducethenearlyonetrillionUSdollarcostofeach.Chinahasalso

emphasisedraisingpublicawarenessofthelowcarbonissue.Experiencehas

shownthateffectivesocialparticipationisthebasisforatransitiontoalow

carboneconomy.

5.犆狅狀犮犾狌狊犻狅狀

TherearesimilaritiesbetweenSinoLatinAmericanrelationsandSinoEU

relationsineconomicterms,althoughtheEUhasgreaterinfluenceandthe

relativelypooreconomicperformanceofLatinAmericahithertoislargelydueto

competitionfromtheEUratherthanfromChina.Despitebearingrelativelylittle

responsibilityforthecurrentimpactofclimatechange,likeChina,Latin

Americancountrieshavedeterminedthatitisintheirowninteresttobepartof

thesolution.Mexicohasdevelopedaneconomywideplantohalveitsprojected

emissionsby2050viaacapandtradeprogramme.Braziliscommittedto

reducingannualdeforestationby70percentby2018:deforestationisthelargest

sourceofemissionsinBrazil,andwhenitisincluded,Brazilisoneoftheworlds

topemitters.Thistargetisthereforeasignificantsteptowardsmeetingglobal

emissionstrajectoriesthatgofurthesttowardsreducingclimatechange.EU

LatinAmericanrelationsaremoreinstitutionalisedthanSinoLatinAmerican

relations.ThemaindifficultycharacterisingEULatinAmericanrelationsat

presentistheEUsprioritisationofEasternEuropeandAsiaPacificcountries.

ChinaisheavilyinvolvedinSouthernmarkets,butneedstomoveforward.

AlthoughLatinAmericaisnotamajorimportmarketforChineseenergy,itwill

haveasignificantroletoplayinthediversificationofChinasenergyimports.

Chineseinvestmentsintheenergysectorwillalsohelptoalleviatetheshortage

offinancialresourcesintheregion,andLatinAmericanenergycooperation

wouldbemutuallybeneficial.LatinAmericancountrieshavethewherewithalin

termsofenergy,resourcesand biologicaldiversityto maketheregion

independentinitsexternalinteractions,aswellastoovercomeitscurrent

344   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

vulnerabilityandlowenergyefficiency.CooperationbetweenChina,Latin

AmericaandtheEU hasgreatpotential,bothonatripartitebasisand

multilaterally,includingthereformofmultilateralmechanisms,newenergy

cooperationandsoon.

Moreimportantly,Chinasresponsetoenergyandclimatechangehasa

numberofsocial,politicalandeconomicimplications.First,itisclearthatChina

hasproactivelyaddressedthechallengeinmultipleways,includinginpolicy,

legalandtechnicalterms.Anumberofwealthycountries,includingtheUnited

States,have been unabletoimplementadequate measurestofacilitate

greenhousegasemissionsreduction.Theyhavesoughtonlytoadoptincremental

measuresdomesticallywhileavoidinginternationalobligations.Notwithstanding

thisstateofaffairs,Chinahasdecidedtomoveforward.Chinahasuseditsdual

statusasadevelopingcountry(withrightstoandneedfordevelopment)andits

growingroleasamajorcontributortoglobalenvironmentalproblems(suchas

greenhousegasemissions)toacquiresubstantialinfluenceininternational

environmentalnegotiations.AsPresidentHuJintaodeclaredatthe2009UN

ClimateSummit,Chinawilldecreasecarbondioxideemissionsbyasignificant

quantityby2020incomparisonto2005levels,forexample,byincreasingthe

shareofnonfossilfuelsinprimaryenergyconsumptiontoaround15percentby

2020(FuJing2009).Tobesure,Chinaiswellpositionedtoleapfrogontoa

cleanenergydevelopmentpath.Inthelongerterm,however,Chinawouldshow

trueleadershiponclimatechangeinthedevelopingworldbyadoptingaconcerted

transitiontoaneconomythatproducesfewercarbonemissions.Suchachoice

wouldbegreatlyfacilitated(andexpedited)withfinancialandtechnicalaidfrom

developedcountries.Nevertheless,evenintheabsenceofsuchaid,itisclear

thatthe Chinese government should integrate climate changeinto its

developmentpolicy.

Againstthebackgroundofenvironmentalcrisisandthepoliticaldilemmas

concerningclimatechange,whicharebeingdiscussedandnegotiatedalloverthe

world,theCopenhagenAccordwassignedin2009andwillserveasabasisfor

China,LatinAmericaandtheEUfortheforeseeablefuture.Thesecountries

shouldworktogethertoaddressthedeadlockinCopenhagenandreachconsensus

onalowcarboneconomyandthepost2012climatechangeregime.Thiswill

requirecoordinationtoensurebalanceddevelopment,preservingtheenvironment

whilemaintainingeconomicgrowth.

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!347  

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉10

犗犻犾犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪

/&, *+,-0+

1.犐狀狋狉狅犱狌犮狋犻狅狀

Inrecentyears,energycooperationbetweenChinaandLatinAmericahas

becomeahotlydebatedtopicinresearchonSinoLatinAmericanrelations.With

ChinasentryintoLatinAmerica,thereareconcernsaboutwhetheritwill

challengetheexistingenergyorderintheWesternhemisphere.Thedominant

thinkingonthisissuecanbeclassifiedintermsofthreegroups.Thefirst,which

isbasedonthelogicofazerosumgame,arguesthatChinawillthreatenUS

energysecuritygeopolitically:themoreoilChinaimportsfromLatinAmerica,

thelessoiltheUSwillget.ThesecondgroupofscholarsdescribesChinaasa

newcolonialisthungeringforoilandotherstrategicnaturalresources.Finally,

somescholarsholdthatChinasparticipationinLatinAmericaislimited,whilea

numberofcountrieswithabundantenergyresourcesregardChinasentryasa

positivedevelopmentwhichwillenablethemtodiversifytheirexternalenergy

cooperation.

Mostoftheexistingliteraturedoesnotanalysethisissueeitherobjectively

orcomprehensivelyinaccordancewiththefacts,remainingsatisfied with

politicisedexplanationsofChinasinvolvementinthe Westernhemisphere.

Somescholarshaveadoptedarealistanalyticalframework,takingonlyUSoil

interestsintoconsideration.Infact,ChinacanplayaconstructiveroleinLatin

Americaforbothsideswithaviewtoachievingsustainabledevelopmentinthe

energysector.Inordertobetterunderstandthis,weshalltrytoanswerthe

followingquestions.First,howshouldChinasroleandstrategyinLatin

Americanenergymarketsbedescribed?Second,whatpotentialdothetwo

sideshavetodrawontodeepentheircooperation?Third,whatchallengeswill

theyhavetoface?

348   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

2.犆犺犻狀犪狊犈狀犲狉犵狔犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀犛狋狉犪狋犲犵狔狋狅狑犪狉犱狊犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪

Inthepastdecade,Chinasoilimportshaveexperiencedstronggrowth.In

1993,Chinabecameanetoilimportingcountry.Asaresultofitsrapideconomic

development,Chinabecamethesecondlargestoilconsumerandimporterin

2004,behindtheUS.Between2002and2007,Chinasoilimportsroseto183.51

milliontonnesfrom77.74milliontonnes(CNPC2008).AccordingtoaChinese

NationalPetroleumCorporation(CNPC)reportin2008,Chinasexternaloil

dependenceroserapidly,from31.2percentto49.6percent,duringthesame

period.Upto2030,Chinasoilneedswillbeconsiderable,becauseitseconomy

islikelytomaintainstronggrowth,withanupgradingofitsconsumption

structureandrapidindustrialisationandurbanisation.Inordertosafeguardits

oilsupply,Chinahasimplementedanimportdiversificationstrategy.At

present,theMiddleEast,AfricaandformerSovietUnionstatesareChinas

mainoilsuppliers(BP2008).Undoubtedly,however,itisriskyforChinato

concentrateitsoilimportsintheseregions.

LatinAmericaisplayinganincreasinglyimportantroleinChinaseffortsto

diversifyitsoilimports.In1993,CNPCwonanoilexplorationtenderinPeru,

makingLatin Americathefirstregionin whichChinahasparticipatedin

internationalenergycooperation.

Duringtheperiod1993to2007,ChinaandLatinAmericaimplementedover

20cooperationprogrammesintheenergyfield,coveringoilexploration,

development,refineries,technicalservicesandpipelineconstruction.These

programsarelocatedmainlyinPeru,Ecuador,VenezuelaandColombia.In

otherwords,theAndeancountriesareChinasprincipalcooperationpartners.

AlthoughChinahassignedvariousoilaccordswithgovernmentsinLatin

America,itscrudeoilimportsfromLatinAmericaaccountforonlyabout7per

centofChinastotalimports.Therefore,LatinAmericaisnotyetregardedasa

majorsupplier.However,itcanbeseenasanalternativeregionenablingChina

tosafeguarditsoilsupply.AccordingtoChineseCustomsStatistics,Angola,

SaudiArabiaandIranwerethetopthreeoilexporterstoChina,supplying87.58

milliontonnesofcrudeoilin2008.

Fortheforeseeablefuture,LatinAmericawillbeanalternativestrategic

choiceforChinawithregardtodiversificationofitsoilimports,enablingitto

reduceitsexcessivedependenceontheMiddleEastandAfrica.Tosummarise

Chinasenergystrategy,itsoilcooperationeffortstowardsLatinAmericashould

betargetedonthreeobjectives,includingmarketentry,investmentprotection

andoilimports.

OilCooperationbetweenChinaandLatinAmerica 349  

犜犪犫犾犲1 犆犺犻狀犲狊犲犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀犈狀犲狉犵狔犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀犘狉狅犵狉犪犿犿犲狊犫犲狋狑犲犲狀1993犪狀犱2007

Exploration

blocks

Production

equity

Service

contractIntotal

Peru 3 3 6

Venezuela 2 2 5 9

Ecuador 1 6 3 10

Colombia N/A 1 1 2

Brazil N/A N/A 2 2

Mexico N/A N/A 1 1

Source:Authorscalculations,accordingtoinformationonthewebsitesofCNPC,SINOPEC

andtheMinistryofCommerceofP.R.China.

犉犻犵狌狉犲1 犆犺犻狀犪狊犈狓狋犲狉狀犪犾犗犻犾犇犲狆犲狀犱犲狀犮犲,20022008

     Source:CNPCAnnualReport:2008WorldOilandGasIndustry.

犉犻犵狌狉犲2 犆犺犻狀犪狊犗犻犾犐犿狆狅狉狋狊犫狔犆狅狌狀狋狉狔狅犳犗狉犻犵犻狀,2007

      Source:BP2008.

350   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

犉犻犵狌狉犲3 犆犺犻狀犪狊犗犻犾犐犿狆狅狉狋狊犳狉狅犿犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪(犜犲狀犜犺狅狌狊犪狀犱犜狅狀狊)

    Source:CNPC2008.

3.犘狅狋犲狀狋犻犪犾犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀犅犲狀犲犳犻狋狊

GivenChinashighenergydemandanditslargeaccumulationofforeign

currencyreserves,somegovernmentsinLatinAmericahavemadegreatefforts

toattractChineseinvestmentintheoilsector.Particularlyundertheimpactof

thefinancialcrisisinthisregion,theyareinurgentneedofforeigncapital,so

therearenewcooperationopportunitiesforChinaandLatinAmericaintheoil

industry.

Ontheonehand,withChinasrobusteconomicgrowth,itsoildemandin

themediumtolongterm willcontinueatahighlevel.Accordingtothe

InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA2007),Chinawillneedtoimportupto80per

centofitscrudeoiland50percentofitsnaturalgasby2030.Atthesametime,

Chinasabundantforeign currencyreserves have boostedtheinvestment

capabilitiesofitsnationaloilcompanies(NOCs).

Ontheotherhand,keepingtheoilindustryopenisstillthemainstream

policyinLatinAmerica.Althoughleftwinggovernmentsstrengthenedtheir

controlofoilresourcesandsectoralregulationsintheperiod20052007,theydid

notreallyintendtodriveoutforeignoilcompanies,butrathertoincreasethe

governmentsshareinrisingoilprices.ThemostimportantthingforChinais

thatleftwingleadersarepoliticallyinclinedtopromoteoilcooperationwith

Chinabecausetheyconsideroiltobeadiplomatictool.Basedonthefavourable

changesinthesituationmentionedabove,thepotentialforoilcooperation

betweenChinaandLatinAmericacanbedepictedasfollows.

First,LatinAmericaisastrategicalternativesourceenablingChinato

diversifyitsoilimports.Inrecentyears,BrazilandVenezuelahavediscovered

largenewoilfields.AccordingtoBPWorldEnergyStatistics2008,provedoil

OilCooperationbetweenChinaandLatinAmerica 351  

reservesinVenezuelaandBrazilamountedto87billionbarrelsand12.6billion

barrels,respectively,accountingfor7percentand2percentofglobalproved

reserves.InMay2008,theMinisterforEnergyandPetroleumandPresidentof

PetroleosdeVenezuela,RafaelRamirez,announcedthathiscountrysoil

reserveswerenow130billionbarrels.InNovember2007andApril2008,Brazil

discoveredtwomajoroilfieldscontainingover30billionbarrels,basedon

NationalPetroleumAgencyestimates.Therefore,Brazil,Venezuelaandother

countriescanbeconsideredpotentialpartnersforChina.

Second,Chineseoilcompaniescantakeadvantageofopportunitiestobuild

oilindustryrelated regionalinfrastructure.In recent years,insufficient

investmentsandslowmodernisationofequipmentandtechnologyhaveledtothe

declineofprovenreserves,productionandrefinerycapacityinMexico,Ecuador

andPeru.Forexample,onlyinBrazilandColombiadidoilproductionincrease—

marginally—in2007,while Mexico,Venezuela and Ecuadorexperienced

productionfallsof5.5percent,7.2percentand4.5percent,respectively,

comparedto2006.Inparticular,LatinAmericaneconomicgrowthhasslowed

down,sufferingtheadverseeffectsoftheinternationalfinancialcrisissince

2008.Thesecountriesthereforehopetoattractforeigninvestment.As

economiesrecoverinthelongterm,thereisnodoubtthatLatinAmericamust

urgentlystrengthenoilandgasexploration,developmentandinfrastructure.

Atthesametime,inresponsetotheglobalfinancialcrisis,somecountries

hopetobeabletoincreasetheiroilexportsatareasonablepricebyincreasingoil

production,becausetheirfiscalrevenuesdependstronglyonoilandgasexports.

Forinstance,inordertoachievesustainabledevelopment,Brazilimplementedan

AccelerationProgrammeforNationalGrowth,aneconomicplaninvolving183

energyprogrammesin2007,emphasisingoilandgasexploration,aswellas

development.Fortheforeseeablefuture,LatinAmericawillcontinuetoabsorb

foreigndirectinvestment,improvingoilandgasexploration,productionand

refiningcapacities.From Chinasperspective,thereare manycooperation

opportunitiesinthesefields.

Moreover,Mexico,BrazilandColombiahavedevelopedeconomicstimulus

planstopromoterecovery,includinginfrastructureprogrammesinoilandgas.

Attheendof2008,theCalderóngovernmentproposedaUSD50billion

investmentscheme,includingenergyreform(Villarreal2010).InJanuary2009,

ColombiaalsolaunchedaneconomicstimuluspackageworthUSD24.5billion,

expectinghigherprivateandforeigncapitalparticipationintheenergysector.

Meanwhile,BrazilalsoexpandeditsGrowthAccelerationProgramme(Programa

de Acelerao do Crescimento,PAC)for theimprovement of energy

352   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

infrastructure.

Finally,keepingtheoilsectoropenisstillamainstreampolicyinLatin

America.This policy orientation should notonly eliminate Chinese oil

companiesconcernsaboutpolicyuncertainty,butalsoprovideafavourable

investmentenvironmentforChinesecapital.Duringtheperiod20052007,

Venezuela,EcuadorandBoliviaadjustedtheiroilandgaspolicies,increasing

theirstateownedoilcompaniessharesinjointventures.Infact,thesethree

countriesconfinedthemselvestoreasonablemeasurestostrengthencontrolover

nationaloilresources.However,insomepartsofthemediaandacademiathese

policychangeshavebeenmisinterpreted,soundingthealarmthatleftwing

governmentshavetakenradicalactiontonationaliseoilandgas.Ifanalysed

properly,thesepoliciesmakeitclearthatthesegovernmentshavenotrenounced

theiropenpolicyintheenergysector.

AsfarasBrazil,Mexico,ColombiaandPeruareconcerned,theyhave

maintainedastableenergycooperationpolicy.Attheendofthe1990s,Brazil,

MexicoandColombiastartedtoopenuptheirenergysectorsbuttoaverylimited

extent,sothatitwasdifficultforprivateorforeignoilcompaniestoentertheir

oilindustries.Duringtheperiod19972007,however,Brazilorganisedmore

thaneightinternationaloilfieldtenders.Onlyafter2004didforeignoil

companieshaveanopportunitytoenterBrazil.Withimprovementsinitssecurity

situation,Colombiahasgraduallybecomeanimportantforeigndirectinvestment

destination.Forexample,theColombianstateownedcompanysigned15oil

cooperationcontractswithothercountriesbetween2006and2008.Although

Mexicobegantoallowprivatecapitaltoparticipateinthedownstreamsectorin

1995,itwasonlyin2003that MexicanPetroleum(Petróleos Mexicanos,

PEMEX),theMexicannationaloilcompany,organisedthefirstinternational

tender.

Duetotheimpactofthefinancialcrisis,somecountriesdependentonoil

exportshavesufferedgreatlyfromlowoilprices.Thesecountriescouldreadjust

theirenergycooperationpoliciesbyopeninguptheiroilsectorsfurther.For

example,Venezuela,becauseofthesharpdeclineinoilprices,hasbeenina

tightfiscalpositionsincetheendof2008.InMexico,theCongresspassedan

energyreformpackageproposedbyPresidentCalderóninOctober2008,which

wasstronglyopposedbyoppositionparties.Thereformpackagewillgivemore

rightstoPEMEXtocooperatewithforeigncompaniesandwillopenuptheoil

sectorfurther,attracting moreprivateandforeigncapitalandadvanced

technology.InDecember2008,PEMEXlaunchedapublictenderconcerning

explorationprogrammes,thelargestinternationaltenderinitshistory.After

OilCooperationbetweenChinaandLatinAmerica 353  

Brazildiscoveredtwolargeoffshoreoilfields,theLulaadministrationactively

negotiatedwithChinatostrengthenexplorationcooperation.InFebruary2009,

ChinaandBrazilsignedaMemorandumofUnderstanding(MOU)involvingUSD

10billioninloansforoilimports.

4.犆犺犪犾犾犲狀犵犲狊犳狅狉犉狌狉狋犺犲狉犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀

Basedontheanalysispresentedabove,oilcooperationbetweenChinaand

LatinAmericahasabrightfuture.However,thereareafewpotentialbarriers

orchallengesthatshouldnotbeneglectedandwhichmightleadtofrictionin

cooperationbetweenthetwosides.Forexample,oilshipmentsandrefiningare

headachesforChineseoilcompanies.CrudeoilfromLatinAmericaisheavyand

sour,requiringadifferentkindofrefiningtechnologyandequipmenttoprocess.

Thefollowingfactorsshouldalsobetakenintoconsiderationwithaviewto

deepeningcooperationbetweenthetworegions.

First,politicaluncertaintiescannotbeoverlooked.Intheshortandmedium

term,militaryconflictisunlikelyinLatinAmerica.However,someunstable

politicalfactorsshouldbenotedwhichmightimpactonChinasoilinvestmentsin

theAndeanregion.InMarch2009,theColombianarmycrossedtheEcuador

borderinpursuitoftheRevolutionaryArmedForcesofColombia,leadingtoa

diplomaticcrisisbetweenEcuador,Colombia,VenezuelaandNicaragua.In

short,politicalstabilityshouldbeexaminedcarefullywhenassessingChinese

investmentsecurity.

Second,policyuncertaintystillexists.Sincethe1990s,energypoliciesin

LatinAmericahaveexperiencedtwoperiodsofreadjustment.Inthefirstperiod,

duringthemiddleandendofthe1990s,mostLatinAmericancountriesstarted

toprivatiseandopenuptheirenergysectors.Thesecondperiodofpolicy

adjustmenthappenedbetween2001and2007,strengtheninggovernmentcontrol

overenergyresources.Policyadjustmentscanbedividedintotwogroupsof

countries.ThefirstgroupincludesVenezuela,BoliviaandEcuador,which

adoptedradicalpolicies,increasingtheirshareoftheprofitsfromrapidlyrising

oilpricesorraisingtheirnationaloilcompaniessharesinjointventures.The

othergroupincludesMexico,Brazil,PeruandColombia.Thesefourcountries

implemented a policy oflimited openness butalso one ofconsiderable

consistency.SinceJuly2008,internationaloilpriceshavefluctuatedstrongly.

ThereisnodoubtthatmajorLatinAmericanoilproducingcountriesmaychange

theirpoliciesagaintoattractforeigncapital.However,uncertaintiesconcerning

policychangesinLatinAmericaremain,representingariskfactorwithregardto

futureoilcooperation.

354   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

Third,itishardtocontrolsocialrisks.Socialriskshererefertoeventsof

thekindthatcaninterruptnormaloilproductionandareoutofcompanies

control.Inrecentyears,ChinasoiloperationsinLatinAmericahavesometimes

beendisturbedbynativeactivistgroupsseekinghigherwelfarebenefits.InJuly

2007,ChinasoilprogrammesintheEcuadorianpartoftheAmazonbasinwere

partlydestroyedbynativepeople,leadingtoseriouseconomiclosses.Other

foreignoilcompanieshavehadsimilarexperiences.Furthermore,terrorist

attacksstillsometimestakeplaceinthisregion.

Fourth,environmentalrequirementshaverisenconsiderably.Between1990

and2005,20percentoftheforestryinEcuadorwasdestroyedbyoilexploration

andproduction(OPEC2007:48).Inordertoimproveenvironmentalprotection,

somegovernmentsrequirethatforeigncompaniesagreetostrictenvironmental

protectionclauseswhentheynegotiateoilcontracts.Environmentalprotectionis

sometimesalsoforcedbylocalprotestsintheaffectedregions.Forexample,

Peruviannativesarmedwithbows,arrowsandriflesblockedoilproductionat

ArgentinecrudeproducerPluspetrolwhichwasforcedtoshutdownits50,000

barrelsperdayoiloperationinPerusnorthernjungle.Thecompanyfinally

promisedtoworkwiththegovernmentandlocalcommunitiestocleanuprivers

anddevelopprojectssuchasfishfarms.InSinoLatinAmericanoilcooperation

programmes,bothsidesattachgreatimportancetoenvironmentalprotection.

Therefore,forChineseoilcompanies,itisevidentthatmorecapitalisneededto

meetenvironmentalprotectionrequirements.

Fifth,theroleoftheUScannotbeneglected.TheUSexertsadominant

influenceintheWesternhemispherebotheconomicallyandgeopolitically,and

LatinAmericadependsheavilyontheUSenergymarketintermsofoilexports.

AccordingtoBP WorldEnergyStatistics2008,theUSimported204million

tonnesin2007,accountingfor74.43percentofLatinAmericancrudeoil

exports.WiththerapiddevelopmentofSinoLatinAmericanoilcooperation,US

scholarsarguethatChinaspenetrationofLatinAmericacouldposeathreatto

USenergysecurity.Suchviewsarebasedonazerosumlogic:inotherwords,

themoreoilChinaimportsfromLatinAmerica,thelessoilwillbeavailableto

theUS.

InadditionitmustbetakenintoconsiderationthatEuropeanandUSoil

companiesdominatetheLatinAmericanoilmarket.Onlyinrecentyearshave

Russia,IndiaandIranenteredtheLatinAmericanoilsector.Chinaisonlyone

strategic partner enabling Latin American countries to diversify their

cooperation.ChinawillfacefiercecompetitionintheLatinAmericanoilmarket.

OilCooperationbetweenChinaandLatinAmerica 355  

5.犆狅狀犮犾狌狊犻狅狀

Todate,LatinAmericahasnotbeenamajoroilsupplierforChina.

However,LatinAmericacouldbeastrategicalternativeenablingChinato

diversifyitsoilsupplyinthelongterm.Infact,ChinasentryintoLatin

Americacanpartlybeexplainedbynationaloilcompaniesownbusiness

developmentstrategiesintheageofglobalisation.MajorLatinAmericanoil

producingcountriesmayadjusttheirpoliciestoattractforeigninvestment

becauseofthefinancialcrisisandslowriseininternationaloilprices.Mexico,

Brazil,ColombiaandotherLatinAmericancountrieswanttoincreasetheir

investmentsinexploration,production,refiningandtransportation,which

providesChina withnew opportunitiestoexpandcooperation.However,

politicaluncertaintyandsocialriskscannotbeoverlooked.Otherissues,suchas

environmentalprotectionandlabourrights,willrequireadditionalinvestment.

Increasinglyintensecompetitionisalsoanunavoidablereality.Inthefaceof

suchchallenges,Chinasoilcompaniesmustcontinuetodeepencooperationwith

stateownedoilenterprisesinthehostcountries,explorenewcooperation

models,increaselocalemploymentandcontributemoretolocalcommunities.

Reference

Arriagada,Genaro(2006),犘犲狋狉狅狆狅犾犻狋犻犮狊犻狀犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪,WashingtonD.C.:Inter

AmericaDialogueWorkingPaper,December.

BritishPetroleum(BP)(2008),犛狋犪狋犻狊狋犻犮犪犾犚犲狏犻犲狑狅犳犠狅狉犾犱犈狀犲狉犵狔,June.

CNPC(2008),犃狀狀狌犪犾犚犲狆狅狉狋:2008犠狅狉犾犱犗犻犾犪狀犱犌犪狊犐狀犱狌狊狋狉狔,Beijing,CNPCResearch

InstituteofEconomicsandTechnology.

Farnsworth,Eric (2008),犖犪狋犻狅狀犪犾犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔 犻狀 犔犪狋犻狀 犃犿犲狉犻犮犪:犆犺犪犾犾犲狀犵犲狊犪狀犱

犗狆狆狅狉狋狌狀犻狋犻犲狊狅狀犈狀犲狉犵狔犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀,NewYork:CounciloftheAmericas,11March.

Freeman,Duncan,RhysJenkinsandJonathanHolslag (2007),犆犺犻狀犪狊犚犲狊狅狌狉犮犲狊犪狀犱

犈狀犲狉犵狔犘狅犾犻犮狔犻狀犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪.犚犲狆狅狉狋犳狅狉狋犺犲犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犆狅犿犿犻狋狋犲犲狅犳狋犺犲

犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犘犪狉犾犻犪犿犲狀狋,Brussels:VrijeUniversity.

IEA(2007),犐犈犃犠狅狉犾犱犈狀犲狉犵狔犗狌狋犾狅狅犽2007:犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱犐狀犱犻犪犐狀狊犻犵犺狋.

Jiang,Wenran(2006),ChinasEnergyEngagementwithLatinAmerica,in:犆犺犻狀犪犅狉犻犲犳,

VI,16,2August.

OPECBulletin (2007),犕犲犿犫犲狉犆狅狌狀狋狉狔犘狉狅犳犻犾犲:犈犮狌犪犱狅狉狉犲犼狅犻狀狊犗犘犈犆,December,

Vienna.

Valera,JoseL.(2007),ChangingOilandGasFiscalandRegulatoryRegimesinLatin

America,in:犗犻犾犪狀犱犌犪狊,December.

Villarreal,M.Angeles(2010),犜犺犲犕犲狓犻犮犪狀犈犮狅狀狅犿狔犪犳狋犲狉狋犺犲犌犾狅犫犪犾犉犻狀犪狀犮犻犪犾犆狉犻狊犻狊,

TheUSCongressionalResearchService,9September.

书书书

356   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉11

犜犺犲犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犺犻狆犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犆犺犪狀犵犲犘狅犾犻犮犻犲狊

犪狀犱犈狀犲狉犵狔犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔—犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犱犅犲狔狅狀犱

!"#$ %&'"&#(

1.犐狀狋狉狅犱狌犮狋犻狅狀

ClimatechangeandenergysecurityarecentraltoenergypoliciesinEurope

andabroad.Roughly60percentofglobalgreenhousegasemissionscomefrom

theuseoffossilfuels.IntheEU,energyrelatedemissionsaccountforabout80

percentofallgreenhousegasemissions.Climatechangepoliciesbasedon

ambitiousemissionsreductiontargetswillrequireprofoundchangesinglobal

energysystems.Climatechangeisthusplayinganeverincreasingroleinenergy

policymakingandthevalueofconsideringinteractionsbetweenglobalwarming

andenergysecurityisincreasinglybeingrecognised.Europeanandinternational

policymakersarenowundermountingpressuretoaddressthischallengeandto

buildupcosteffectivepoliciesthatwillreducegreenhousegasemissions,while

ensuringadequate,reliableandaffordableenergysupplies.

Intermsofclimatechange,theEUiscommittedtolimitingglobalwarming

to2℃abovepreindustriallevels.Thiswillrequirecutsinglobalemissionsofat

least50percentby2050relativeto1990levels,andreductionsforindustrialised

countriesinthemagnitudeof8095percentbythesameyear.TheEUandother

industrialisedcountries willneedtotakethelead duetotheirhistoric

responsibilityofhavingemittedmostofthecurrentgreenhousegas(GHG)

emissionsstockintheatmospherethatisresponsibleforclimatechange.While

theEUhasstartedtoaddresstheclimatechangechallengewithitsenergyand

climatechangepackage,adoptedinlate2008,whichaimstounilaterallydecrease

GHGemissionsto20percentbelow1990levelsby2020,itwillrequireaglobal

alliancetoavoiddangerousclimatechange.KeepinginmindthattheEUwas

responsibleforonlyaround11percentofglobalGHGemissionsin2004and

TheRelationshipbetweenClimateChangePoliciesandEnergySecurity!EuropeandBeyond 357  

giventhatthissharecontinuestodecrease,theEUsabilitytohaveadirect

effectonglobalGHGemissionsislimited.Thisiswellillustratedbythefact

thatEUcumulativeCO2savingsbetween2008and2020(witha20percentCO2

emissionsreductiontarget)wouldrepresentonly40percentofChinasannual

CO2emissionsin2020.ButevenifalloftheOrganisationforEconomic

CooperationandDevelopment(OECD)countriesweretoreducetheirGHG

emissionstozeroby2030(whichishighlyunrealistic),nonOECDcountries

alonewouldexceedglobalemissionslevelsinlinewiththe2℃threshold(IEA

2009).Effectiveinternationalclimatechangecooperationthusneedsthe

involvementofdevelopingcountries,andespeciallyoffastgrowingemerging

economies.

Inaddition,decarbonisationofglobalenergysystemsneedstobeachieved

withoutcompromisingthesecurityofenergysupplies.IntheEuropeancontext,

thesupplyofelectricity,heatandmobilityisconsideredsecureifithappenson

anadequate,reliableandaffordablebasis.Inaddition,environmentalconcerns

maybetakenintoaccountwhenevaluatingthesecurityofEuropeanenergy

supplies.However,therearedifferentpointsofviewabouthowadequacy,

reliabilityandaffordabilityofenergysuppliescanbeachieved.Thosestressing

theeconomicperspectivefocusonmarketrulesandtheirabilitytoequatesupply

anddemand,renderingtheconceptofenergysecuritymeaningless.Inlinewith

thisview,neithertheworldnortheEUarecurrentlyfacingsevereenergy

securitychallengestobedealtwithwithinareinforcedinternationalframework,

byheavygovernmentinterventionorevenbymilitarymeans.Acontraryviewis

heldbyforeign policy analysts who are convinced thattheincreasing

nationalisationofenergyresourcesandthepoliticisationofenergymanagement

byresourcerichcountrieshavemadeenergysecuritya matterofnational

security.Accordingtothem,themarketaloneisnotabletodealwiththemounting

andmultifacetedchallengesthatenergyconsumingcountriesmustfaceinaglobalised

world.Energysecuritythereforerequiresinternationalcooperation,government

interventionandmilitarycontrol.Neitherofthesetwointerpretationscanbedismissed

nordotheycapturethewholepictureofsecurityofsupply.Infact,theeconomicand

thesocalledpoliticalinterpretationaretwosidesofthesamecoin:theycomplement

eachotherandbotharenecessarytoexplainthechallenges,aswellasthesolutionsto

thesecurityofenergysupplyinEurope.

Itiswidelyassumedthatclimatechangepolicyinthecontextofambitious

greenhousegasreductiontargetscanbebeneficialtosecurityofsupply.

However,thereisageneralmisconceptionthatenergysecurityrisksarelargely

relatedtoimportdependence.WhileitistruethattheEUisfacedwith

358   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

increasingimportdependency,whichmightreach70percentin2030,thereare

manyothersupplyrisksthatneedtobetakenintoaccountwhendesigningfuture

energysystems.Notalloftheserisksareexternal.Infact,mostoftherecent

supplydisruptioninEuropehaddomesticcausesconnectedtostrikes,weather

relatedsystemsfailures,lackofcapitalinvestmentorgenerallythepoor

conditionoftheenergysystem.Itisthusimportanttoassesslowcarbonenergy

sourcesinlightofthecomplexityofsupplyrisks.

2.犚犲狀犲狑犪犫犾犲犈狀犲狉犵狔犛狅狌狉犮犲狊

In2005,renewablesaccountedfor8.5percentoffinalenergyconsumption

intheEU(EuropeanCommission2008).Withtheagreementon17December

2008ontheEUenergyandclimatepackage,thenewRenewablesDirectivewas

sealed,whichsetstheframeworkforincreasingtheoverallshareofrenewables

inEUenergyconsumptionto20percentby2020.TheEUadoptedthisbinding

renewablestargetintheconvictionthatrenewableenergiesreduceairpollution

andgreenhousegasemissionsandthatthey“promisestrategicimprovementsin

thesecurityofsupply,reducethelongtermpricevolatilitytowhichtheEUis

subjectedasapricetakerforfossilfuelsandcouldofferanenhancedcompetitiveedge

fortheEUenergytechnologyindustry”(EuropeanCommission2007).Furthermore,

renewableenergysources“facilitateimprovementintheeconomicandsocialprospects

ofruralandisolatedregionsinindustrialisedcountriesandhelpmeetbasicenergyneeds

indevelopingcountries”(EuropeanCommission2007).

Renewablescanalsoplayapivotalroleinsecuringenergy,protectingthe

environment(bothintermsofreducingGHGemissionsandairpollution)and

stabilisingeconomiesindevelopingcountries.Developingcountriesnotonlyhave

largepotentialforexpandingtheuseofrenewables,butin2006theyalreadyhad

ashareof43percentofglobalrenewableelectricitycapacity(REN212008),

mainlyintheformofbiomassandsmallhydropower.China,forexample,has

theworldslargestinstalledcapacity,totallingaround52GW,accountingfor25per

centofglobalcapacity.ThisisalmosttwicethesizeofcapacitiesinGermanyor

theUSA.Similarly,Chinawasleadinginnewcapacityinvestmentsin2006,

secondonlytoGermany.

Substituting renewables for conventionalfossil energy sources can

contributesignificantlytodomesticGHGemissionsreductionsinelectricity

production,heatingandcooling,aswellasinthetransportsector.Solar

photovoltaic,hydroelectric,biomassandwindhavenodirectemissionsandtheir

indirectlifecycleemissionsareonlyafractionoftotalemissionsofcoalandgas.

Togetherwithotherrenewables,suchasgeothermalandtidalpower,thereisa

TheRelationshipbetweenClimateChangePoliciesandEnergySecurity!EuropeandBeyond 359  

broadportfolioofrenewablesthatcanbeusedtoachieveGHGreductiontargets

withadiversifiedfuelmix.InthecaseoftheEU,mostoftheseresourcesare

domesticallyavailable (biomassandconcentratingsolarpowercanbean

exception).Aswitchtorenewablesthusgenerallyreducesimportdependency.

However,whetherthisisasecurityofsupplybenefitdependsonwhetherimport

dependenceisregardedasarisktoadequate,reliableandaffordableelectricity.

Globaloilandcoalmarketsarerelativelyopenandwellfunctioning,andprices—

aswellastheirvolatility—aremuchmoreofasecurityofsupplyconcernthan

importdependencyperse.Intermsofgas,however,pricesarelargelyregulated

orlinkedtooilprices,andarethusmuchlessabletobalancesupplyand

demand.Inaddition,theEUisregionallylinkedtoonlyafewsuppliersviafixed

infrastructure,whichmakesphysicalunavailabilityofgasmoreofaconcern.If

renewablescanincreasetheirshareattheexpenseofgasimports,itcouldthus

bearguedthattherearesomesecurityofsupplygains.However,intermsof

GHGemissionsreductions,anincreaseofrenewablessubstitutingforelectricity

productionfromcoalwouldbepreferable.Duetotheintermittenceofmany

renewableenergytechnologies(seebelow),theyarenotwellsuitedtoserve

peakdemand,butinsteadlikelytodisplacetypicalbaseloadgenerationplants.

TheIEA(2007)thusassumesthat“coal,gasand—inthecaseofarenewable

energypolicy,nuclear—aredisplacedproportionallytotheirroleinthefuel

mix”.

Moreimportantintermsofenergysecurityistheriskofintermittencefroman

increasingshareofrenewablesintheenergymix.Intermittenceinthecaseof

renewablesreferstoundesiredoruncontrolledvariabilityofoutput(Sinden2005).At

thesametime,renewablesarecharacterisedbyreduceddispatchabilityor

manoeuvrability,whichreferstotheirabilitytoincreaseordecreaseoutput

quicklyondemand(KuntzandDawe2005).Notallrenewablesareequally“unreliable”: Large hydro, bioenergy and geothermal resources and

concentratingsolarpower(CSP)“offercomparablelevelsoffirmcapacitiesto

conventionalfossilfuelbasedplants”(IEA2007).Biomass,ontheonehand,

canbestoredandusedwhenrequiredandthusprovidesamoreorlessconstant

electricitysupply.Solarphotovoltaicapplications,wind,smallhydropower

plantsandfuture waveenergyresources,ontheotherhand,are more

intermittentandvariableinsupplyingelectricity(IEA2007).IncurrentEU

electricitysystems,intermittencyisnotgenerallyaproblem becausethe

penetrationofintermittentrenewablesisstilllow (although withstrong

variationsamongmemberstates).However,theelectricitygridwilleventually

needtoadapttohighersharesofintermittentelectricity,althoughthereisno

360   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

consensusonhowmuchintermittentelectricitycanbesustainedbythegrid.

Maximumpenetrationofintermittentrenewableenergytechnologywillprobably

bedeterminedbyeconomicefficiencyandcostconsiderationsratherthanby

technicalfeasibility.

Thereareseveraloptionswithregardtodealingwithintermittencein

electricitysystems,whichincludeinvestmentinmorereliableinfrastructureand

bettergrid interconnection,and balancing a mix ofrenewable energy

technologieswithdifferentnaturalcycles.Ingeneral,itcanbearguedthat

renewableswithhighershorttermvariabilityaremoreriskyforsupplysecurity,

unlesscombinedwithrenewableswithdifferentnaturalcyclesorappropriate

backupcapacity.Theneedforbackupcapacityforintermittentrenewablescan

bereducediftheyareusedincombinationwithamixofotherrenewableenergy

technologiesthatarelessintermittent.Forexample,windpowercanbe

complementedbylargehydroinstallations,orpossiblyevenwithhydrogen

poweredplants.However,largescaleintegration ofrenewablesintothe

electricitygridwillalsorequireinvestmentinbackupcapacitiesandelectricity

storagetocompensatetheremaininguncertaintiesofthegrid.

Similarly,appropriatedemandside managementstrategieswillhelpto

regulatedemand,forexample,bysettingpriceincentivesandincreasingprice

transparencytoreducetheuseofelectricityduringpeakhours.

Inanefforttoovercomesomeoftherisksassociatedwithrenewableenergy

sourcesandtoimproveinternationalcooperationtofacilitatethetransition

towardsthewidespreaduseofrenewablesintheworld,theInternational

RenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)wasestablishedon26January2009.While

itistooearlytoassesstheeffectivenessoftheorganisation,itseemsthatit

couldpotentiallymakeasubstantialcontributiontodecarbonisetheglobalenergy

sectorbyimprovingtheknowledgebase,providingpolicyadvice,promoting

technologytransferandstimulatingresearch.IncontrasttotheIEA,IRENA

SignatoryStatesincludebothindustrialisedanddevelopingeconomiesfrom

Africa,Asia,EuropeandLatinAmerica.However,thetwolargestglobal

greenhousegasemitters—ChinaandtheUSA—havenot(yet)joinedIRENA.

Tohaveatrulyglobalreach,theAgencywillneedtheseandothercountriesto

participate(forexample,Australia,Brazil,Mexico,Russia,SouthAfricaand

theUnitedKingdom,aswellassomeofthemainoilproducingcountries).Only

withbroad membershipwillIRENA beabletopursueaglobalstrategy,

providingafocalpointforallglobalrenewableenergyissues.Ontheotherhand,

someindustrialisedcountriesmaybenefitfromincreasedglobaleffortswith

regardtorenewables,hopingto“reapcommercialgainsfromtheirtechnological

TheRelationshipbetweenClimateChangePoliciesandEnergySecurity!EuropeandBeyond 361  

leadershipinareassuchasadvancedwindturbinedesignandmanufacturing”

(Sioshansi2009).Butsomeemergingeconomies—andespeciallyChina—willbe

abletobenefitfromanexpandingglobalrenewablessectoraswell,being

producersofcleanenergytechnologiesthemselves.China,forexample,isthe

worldslargestproducerofphotovoltaiccells(ofwhich98percentarefor

export)andBrazilistheworldssecondlargestproducerofethanolandthe

worldslargestexporter.Itisthusamisconceptiontoconsidercleantechnology

transfermerelyasa“NorthSouth”traderelationship.Withproductionoflow

carbontechnologiesmaturinginemergingeconomies,therewillincreasinglybe

tradeflowsintoindustrialisedcountries,assumingthatmarketforcesare

allowedtofunctionfreely.

Finally,broadeningthemandateofIRENAshouldbeconsideredtoextend

itintoaglobalplatformforalllowcarbontechnologies(exceptnuclear,which

hasitsownagencyintheformoftheIAEA).IfIRENAfocussedalsoonenergy

efficiencyandonothercleanenergytypes(forexample,cleancoal)itmight

makeabettercontributiontodecarbonisingglobalenergysystems.

3.犖犪狋狌狉犪犾犌犪狊

Naturalgasmaybeanimportantintermediatesolutiontoclimatechangeas

itproduceslessCO2perunitofenergythancoaloroil.Itmaythusbeadvisable

totemporarilyincreasetheshareofnaturalgas—asasubstituteforcoaloroil—

untilrenewabletechnologiesaremarketreadyonalargescale,althoughthis

wouldbeatthecostofincreasingimportdependencefurther.Atthesame

time,effortstoincreasesecurityofenergysupply mayleadto measures

substitutinggaswithcoaloroil,thusincreasinggreenhousegasemissions,at

leastintheshortterm.Thishasbeenthecaseinnationalresponsestothe

RussiaUkrainetransitdisputeundrelateddecreasesinRussiangasdeliveriesin

January2009.

Withashareofalmost25percentofgrossinlandenergyconsumption,

naturalgasisthesecondmostimportantenergycarrierintheEU.Atthesame

time,about60percentofthegasconsumedintheEUneedstobeimportedfrom

abroadandtheEuropeanCommissionestimatesthatthissharewillincreaseto

over80percentby2030.Europeangasimportsarehighlyconcentrated,with

almost90percentoriginatinginonlythreecountries(EuropeanCommission

2008),wherethegasmarketistightlycontrolledbygovernments.Inthis

respect,fearsof“gascartels”orofenergybeingusedasapoliticaloreconomic

weapondonotseemcompletelyunfounded (forexample,inthecontextof

recurringRussiaUkrainegasdisputes whichrepeatedlyaffectseveralEU

362   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

memberstatesgassupply).Similarly,thereisariskofalackofinvestmentin

exploration,productionandtransportation,despitereservesbeingabundantly

availableinareassurroundingEurope(forexample,Mueller2007).

Currentenergyscenariosshowthatareductionofdependencyongas

throughanincreaseindomesticproductionorthroughenergysavingsisnot

credible.Thesituationisdifferentwithregardtothediversificationofexporting

countries.Europespositionintheworldmarketcouldbemorefavourabledepending

onwhetherAfricanand MiddleEasternexportsgrowsubstantially,backedby

significantvolumesofLiquefiedNaturalGas(LNG).ThedevelopmentofLNGspot

marketsisexpectedtoeasesomeconcernsaboutsecurityofsupply,especiallyin

termsof pipeline diplomacy,due to its advantages offlexibility and

diversification.Currently,about10percentofEuropesgasimportsareinthe

formofLNG.Thissharecouldroughlydoubleby2020.However,some

drawbacksremain.BesidethefactthatLNGtechnologyissensitivetophysical

threats,exportershavenotkeptupwithincreasingfacilitiesinimporting

countries,leadingtosomeregasificationterminalsstandingidle.Inaddition,the

EUisexpectedtofacefiercecompetitionfromotherimportingcountries,suchas

theUS(Larsson2007).

AnothercriticalfactoristransportcapacitytowardsEurope,asitseems

verylikelythatprojectedinfrastructurewillnotbeableto meetexpected

demand.Thisimpliestheneedtogainaccesstogasreserves,toopenup

producingareastointernationalinvestmentandtodevoteattentiontothe

stabilityof“transitcountries”.Severalinfrastructureprojectsarecurrently

beingplannedintheEU,twoofwhichwillincreasethedependenceonRussian

gasimports(albeitreducingthetransitrisk)andoneofwhichwilldiversify

importstowardstheCaspianregionandtheMiddleEast(thatis,theNabucco

pipelineproject).Itshouldbenotedthatcurrentgasinfrastructureprojects

(bothpipelinesandLNG)willdeterminefuturegreenhousegasemissions

becausetheylockEuropeintoacarbonintensiveenergypatternwhichisnotin

linewiththetargetedgreenhousegasemissionstoavoiddangerousclimate

change.Withalifetimeof2050years(andbeyond)newlybuiltgaspipelines

willincreaseEuropesdependenceongasfurther,renderingcarbonneutral

energysystemsby2050lesslikely.

Inaddition,thefuturecarbonpricewillhaveanimpactonthefutureofthe

gasmarkets.Mostgascompanieshaveadjustedtheirgas marketgrowth

expectationsdownwardsafterthefirstcarbonmarketexperience,duetothe

competitionofgaswithcoalandnuclearforpowergeneration.However,if

naturalgasisunabletotakealargershareinpowergeneration,itwillnotbe

TheRelationshipbetweenClimateChangePoliciesandEnergySecurity!EuropeandBeyond 363  

abletoliveuptoitsexpectationstobea“bridge”toalowcarboneconomyand

mayevenbecomeasunsetindustry.

4.犆狅犪犾犪狀犱狋犺犲犚狅犾犲狅犳犆犪狉犫狅狀犆犪狆狋狌狉犲犪狀犱犛狋狅狉犪犵犲(犆犆犛)

Ontheglobalscale,coaliscurrentlythefastestgrowingfossilenergy

carrierandcontinuestobethesecondmostimportantfossilfuel,slowlyclosing

thegapwithoil.InthereferencescenarioofitsWorldEnergyOutlook,theIEA

(2008)predictsa61percentincreaseinglobalconsumptionofcoalbetween2006

and2030.Overthenext10years,Chinaalonewillinstallmorepowergeneration

capacitybasedoncoalthanEuropesentirecurrentstock.

IntheEU,however,primarycoaldemandhasdecreasedconsiderablysince

the1980s,largelyduetotheswitchfromcoaltogasfiredpowerproductionin

WesternEuropeandeconomictransitionintheEast.Thistrendisexpectedto

continue,withdemanddecreasingbyalmost20percentbetween2006and2030.

Similarly,thevolumeofcoalproduceddomesticallywithintheEU27 will

continuetodecrease.Asaresult,theEU willbecomemoredependenton

importsdespiteowningconsiderabledomesticreserves(3.5percentofglobal

reserves).Domesticcoalproductionisforecasttofallto48percentof

consumptionby2030,downfrom59percentin2006.

Coalimportsarefarmoreregionallydiversifiedthannaturalgasimports,for

example,andmostexportingcountriesqualifyasstabledemocracies,which

largelyrespectthesamemarketandpoliticalrulesastheEU.Inaddition,the

coalmarketisatrulyglobal,openandwellfunctioningone,notdominatedbya

singlesupplier,suchasOPEC.Atthesametime,therearestillconsiderable

globalprovencoalreserves,which—atthecurrentglobalrateofproduction—

maybesufficientforanother133years(BP2008).Finally,coalisrelativelysafe

totransportandstore.Itcanbetransportedquicklybyshipandrail,without

theneedforexpensivelongruninfrastructureandrelatedtransportandtransit

securityissues.AllthesefactorscontributetotheassessmentthatEuropean

importdependencydoesnotposeanelevatedrisktoitsuninterruptedsupplyof

coalinthelongrun(althoughtherearesomerisksintheshortrunstemming

fromweatherandotherunforeseeablefactorsinproducercountries,aswellas

increasingdemandinsomeemergingeconomies).

Giventhatimportdependenceisnotamajorlongtermsecurityissueinthe

caseofcoal,thereareotherrisksthatneedtobedealtwith.Ontheglobalscale,

thegreatestenvironmentalthreatinthelongtermisclimatechange.Theuseof

coalinelectricityproductioncausesfarmoregreenhousegasemissionsthanthe

useofanyotherenergycarrier.Toputthisintoperspective,at28percent,coal

364   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

isthesecondlargestsourceofelectricitygenerationintheEU27,justbehind

nuclear(30percent).Insomecountries,thisshareisconsiderablyhigher,such

asinPoland(91percent),Estonia(91percent),theCzechRepublic(59per

cent)andGreece (59percent)(EuropeanCommission2008).Inviewof

Europesambitiousenergyandclimatechangetargets,cleancoaltechnologies

mustbedevelopedquickly,otherwisecoalcannotcontinuetoplayamajorrolein

Europesenergymix.ThesameappliestoChina,whichderivesaround70per

centofitsenergymixfromcoal.

Asindicatedintheintroduction,industrialisedcountriesareexpectedtocut

greenhousegasemissionsby8095percentinordertoallowglobalemissionsto

dropto50percentof1990levelsby2050.ThecurrentenergymixofEU27is

largelycharacterisedbycarbonintensivefossilfuelswhichmadeup79percent

ofGrossInlandConsumptionin2005(EuropeanCommission2008).Giventhe

carbonintensity ofthe European energy mix andthe possibility ofa

“renaissance”ofcoalonsecurityofsupplygrounds,Europecanonlyachieve

suchambitiousgreenhousegasreductiontargetsifitdevelopscarboncaptureand

storage(CCS)focusedoncoalfiredpowerproduction,butalsoonemissions

fromotherfossilbasedformsofpowerproductionandemissionsfromindustry.

Undercurrenttechnologicalconditions,CCSprocessescancapturearound85per

centoftheCO2emittedatsource.However,theseprocessesreducethethermal

efficiencyofplantsby812percent(IEA2008)andthusincreasetheneedfor

coalinputs.

ThesuccessoftheCCStechnologywilllargelydependonthesuccessofthe

demonstrationphase,publicacceptance,thespeedofadoptingEUlegislation

andtheprovisionofasecurelegalframework,aswellasonthesuccessofthe

EUETSandthepriceofCO2.ToimproveliabilityandreducethecostsofCCS

technologies,itisimportantintheshorttomediumtermtodevelopappropriate

demonstrationprojects,inwhichcurrentlyusedCCStechnologiesareadapted

foruseinlargescalepowerplantsandimprovedthroughresearch and

development.TheEUdecidedinDecember2008toraisefundingforthese

commercialdemonstrationprojectsbysettingaside300millioncarbonallowances

intheEUEmissionsTradingScheme(ETS)startingin2013,equivalentto

aboutEUR9billionatapriceofEUR30pertonneofCO2.TheEUwillalso

needtoacceleratedomesticresearchandwillneedtoincreaseinvolvementin

internationalresearchcooperation,forexamplewithChina.Afterall,CCSis

notjustanopportunityfortheEUtocontinuebenefitingfromtheadvantagesof

coalbutalsoforcleaningChinaspowersectorandrelatedtechnologyexport

opportunities.

TheRelationshipbetweenClimateChangePoliciesandEnergySecurity!EuropeandBeyond 365  

5.犖狌犮犾犲犪狉犈狀犲狉犵狔

Nuclearenergyiscurrentlythelargestsinglesourceoflowcarbonelectricity

intheEU.In2007,itaccountedfor14percentoftheEUtotalenergysupply

andprovided31percentoftheelectricitygenerated.Overall,thereare145

nuclearpowerplantsinoperationacross15EUmemberstates(mostofwhich

werebuiltbetweenthe1970sand1980s)(EuropeanNuclearSociety2009),with

anotherfournuclearpowerplantscurrentlyunderconstruction.EU member

statescontinuetobedividedaboutnuclearenergy.Eventhoughsomemember

statesrecentlycameforward withplansfornew plants,itwouldbean

exaggerationtospeakofa‘nuclearrenaissance’.Evenifallcurrentlyplanned

nuclearpowerplantswerebuiltinEurope,theywouldhardlybeabletoreplace

theageingnuclearinfrastructure,letaloneaddtoexistingcapacity,should

Germanyphaseoutits17nuclearpowerplantscurrentlyinoperation.

Thoseinfavourarguethatnuclearenergycouldcontributetoincrease

Europessecurityofenergysupplyandcontributesignificantlytoreachingthe

EUsclimateobjectives.First,thissupportcomesfrom theincreasing

competitivenessofelectricitygenerationfromnuclear.Thisisduetodeclining

fuel(includingenrichment),operatingandmaintenancecosts,whiletheplant

concernedhasbeenpaidfor(WorldNuclearAssociation2008).However,it

shouldbenotedthatlargecapitalcostsforconstructionofnewplantsremain

problematic,especiallywithcapitalinshortsupplyduetothecurrentfinancial

crisis.Inaddition,decliningoilpriceshavemademanynuclearprojectsless

competitive(atleastintheshortterm).Second,theindigenousnatureof

nuclearpowerproductionreassuresmemberstatesagainstrisksrelatedtoimport

dependency.ItisnotsurprisingthatcentralandeasternEuropeancountries—

withthehighestdependencyonRussiangasimports—aremostsupportiveof

nuclearpower.Whilealmost100percentofEUuraniumrequirementsare

importedfromabroad,itsavailabilityinreliablecountriessuchasCanadaand

Australia—accountingfor45percentofEUuraniumrequirements—usuallydoes

notraiseimportdependencyconcerns.Thethirdreasonfornuclearsupportis

relatedtothefactthat,togetherwithrenewableenergysources,nuclearenergy

isoneoftheleastcarbonintensivesourcesofenergy.Thisargumentisoften

usedbyproponentsofnuclearenergyinrelationtoachievingclimatechange

objectivesatcurrentlevelsofenergyconsumption.

DespitetherecentdeclarationsofintentbymanyEuropeancountriesto

undertakenewnuclearprojects,somescepticismexistsonarealboosttonuclear

powergenerationinEurope.Withoutmassiveinvestmentstoreplaceageing

366   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

facilitiesandtobuildnewplants,Europesnucleargeneratingcapacityisinfact

expectedtoshrinkratherthantogrow.Accordingly,theIEAforecaststhat

electricitygenerationfromnuclearwilldecreasefrom31percentto21percent

by2020(IEA2008).Themainreasonsforthepossiblestagnationanddeclineof

nuclearpowergenerationarecostssuchasstartupcosts,decommissioningand

wastemanagement.Moreover,safety (thelackofacommonapproachto

European safety standards),public opinion and perception, waste and

proliferation(MIT2003)arealsoimportantreasons.Inaddition,thenuclear

powersectorsuffersfromanageingworkforceandageneralshortageofqualified

labour,aswellasfromashortageofkeycomponentsofthesupplychain.

6.犈狀犲狉犵狔犈犳犳犻犮犻犲狀犮狔

EnergyefficiencyhasbecomeacornerstoneoftheEuropeanCommissions

energypolicy.TheEUhassetitselfanonbindingtargetofsaving20percentof

energyconsumptionby2020throughenergyefficiency,whichmaysaveupto

EUR100billionandanestimated800milliontonnesofCO2peryear(European

Commission2008).AccordingtotheCommission ActionPlanon Energy

Efficiency (European Commission2006),thelargestcosteffectivesavings

potentialsareinthehouseholdandtertiarysectors,at27percentand30per

cent,respectively.Formanufacturingindustry,theoverallpotentialisestimated

tobearound25percent,whilefortransportthefigureis26percent.

Onaglobalscale,improvingenergyefficiencywillalsoallowdeveloping

countriestoreducethegrowthofenergydemandandgreenhousegasemissions,

aswellastosavecostsofenergyproduction.ArecentstudybyMcKinsey

(2009)showedthatsome65percentofglobalpositivereturnenergyefficiency

opportunitiesareindevelopingcountries.Chinahasthelargestpotential(22per

centofglobalopportunities),followedbythe MiddleEast(10percent),

EasternEurope(10percent),LatinAmerica(8percent)andIndia(7per

cent).TheworldspoorestcountriesinSoutheastAsiaandAfricaareless

attractivefromanenergyefficiencyperspective,offeringonly5percentand4

percentofglobalopportunities,respectively.

Energyefficiencyachievedbyreducingdemandincreasestheflexibilityof

thewholeenergychainandtherebyprovidesanadditionalmarginforsecurity.

Putanotherway,iftheflexibilityneededtocopewithsupplyfailureisa

proportionofoverallenergydemand,thenthecostofprovidingaconstantlevel

ofsecurityofsupplydecreasesiftheoverallenergydemandisreduced

(EgenhoferandLegge2001).

However,therearesomedoubtsaboutthecorrelationbetweenincreasing

TheRelationshipbetweenClimateChangePoliciesandEnergySecurity!EuropeandBeyond 367  

energyefficiencyandreducingimportdependency,atleastinEurope.TheIEA

(2008)reportsthatEuropesenergyefficiencyhasconsistentlyimprovedover

time:from1,200MillionTonnesofOilEquivalent(Mtoe)ofNegajoules(that

is,avoidedenergyconsumptionthroughenergysavings)in1970,to2,000Mtoe

in1990and2,800Mtoein2005.However,thisimprovementhasnottranslated

intoaparalleldownwardtrendforEuropestotalprimaryenergyimports:

Europesimportdependencegrewfrom42percentin1990to52percentin2005

(IEA2008).Accordingly,evenassumingthefullapplicationoftheexistingEU

directivesonenergyefficiency,importdependencyisprojectedtoincreasefrom

47.2percentin2000to65.5percentin2030.Withenergydemanddecreasing

fasterthanEUdomesticenergyproduction,importdependencein2010and2020

willbeslightlylowerthanin2000.Inthelongterm(thatis,until2030),the

reductionindemandforelectricityproducedfromnuclearandindigenoussolid

fuelswillleadtolowerexploitationofEuropeanenergysources,whichmore

thancounterbalancesthedeclineinprimaryenergyconsumption.Asaresult,

importdependenceinthe“energyefficiencycase”in2030maybeslightlyhigher

thaninthebaseline(EuropeanCommission2006).

Theabsenceofastrongcorrelationbetweenenergyefficiency,ontheonehand,

energyimportsandsecurityofsupply,ontheother,hasseveral—complementary—

explanations.TheprogressiveexhaustionofEuropesindigenousresources—especially

oilandgas—isone.Second,thereisthesocalled“reboundeffect”.Improvementsin

energyefficiencymakeenergyservices(forexample,heatormobility)cheaper,thus

encouragingtheirfurtheruse.Thiscanresultinanoverallincreaseinenergy

consumption,despitetheinitialdemandreduction.Thereboundeffectisverydifficultto

measureanditcanhavedifferentimpactsindifferentsectorsbut,generallyspeaking,its

impacthassofarbeenunderestimated.Inindustrialisedcountries,foranyincreasein

energyefficiencythereisareboundeffectofatleast10percent(uptoover50percent).

Thismeansthattheactualreductioninenergyconsumptionisequaltoonlyacertain

percentageoftheexpectedenergysaving(UKEnergyResearchCentre2007).

Energyefficiency measuresareoneofthe key areasforimproved

internationalcooperation.Thestrongprojectedgrowthofenergydemandin

developingandtransitioncountriesisexpectedtoleveloffanypossibleenergy

efficiencyimprovementintheEU,bothfromthesecurityofsupplyandtheCO2

emissionsperspectives(EgenhoferandLegge2001).WhileEuropesprimary

energydemandisexpectedtoincreaseby4.5percentbetween2006and2030,

thebiggestemergingconsumercountryintheworld,namelyChina,willregister

agrowthofmorethan100percent(IEA2008).ThismeansthatiftheEUwas

abletosave20percentofenergyconsumption,Chinaalonewouldmakeupfor

368   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

morethanEuropesimprovements.Inotherwords,Europeseffortstoreduce

greenhousegaseswillbeneutralisedbyChina.Thispointisreinforcedwhen

takingintoaccounttheprojecteddemandgrowthofotheremergingeconomies—

suchasIndia—andtransitioneconomies.Energyefficiencyorconservation

measuresinemergingeconomiesortransitioncountrieswouldbefarmore

beneficialbothforglobalenergysecurityandGHGreductionmeasures.Forthis

reason,theEUpropagatesproactivecooperationwithkeythirdcountries.Its

aim wouldbetodevelopa multilateralpartnershipforenergyefficiency

involving,atfirst,membercountriesoftheOECD withapossiblefuture

enlargementtootherpartners.Theagreementcouldincludevariousissueareas

ofcooperation,suchasregulatorycooperation,informationexchangeonenergy

savingstrategies,methodsofmeasurementandresearchcooperationonenergy

efficiencytechnologies.

7.犃犱犪狆狋犪狋犻狅狀牶狋犺犲犆犪狊犲狅犳犈犾犲犮狋狉犻犮犻狋狔

TheelectricitysectorplaysacentralroleintheEuropeanUnionseffortsto

achievegreenhousegas(GHG)reductionsofatleast20percentby2020

comparedto1990levels.Whiletheelectricitysectoriscurrentlyresponsiblefor

aboutonethirdofEuropestotalenergyrelatedGHGemissions,thereisconsiderable

potentialforreducingemissions.Mitigationstrategieswillneedtofocusnotonlyon

moreefficientelectricityuse,butalsoonimprovedconversionratesandnew

technologies,suchasrenewablesandcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS).

Apartfromthemitigationofclimatechange,thesectorwillalsohavetoadaptto

climatechangetoprovidesecureanduninterruptedservice(foramoredetailedanalysis

ofadaptationintheEuropeanelectricitysector,seeEskelandetal.2008).Global

warmingwillhaveasignificantimpactontheabilitytogenerateelectricityandto

deliveritwithoutinterruption.Southerncountrieswillmostlikelybefacedwithless

demandforheatingbutsubstantiallyincreaseddemandforairconditioning.Theymay

alsoexperiencelossesinhydropowerandproblemswithcoolingofthermalpower

plants.Northerncountrieswillequallyexperiencelessdemandforheatingandmay

gainpotentialforelectricityproductionfromhydropower.Atthesametime,theymay

havetoadapttomorestormsandheavyprecipitation.Inbothregions,electricitysupply

disruptionsduetostorms,floodsandheatwavesmayincreasetheneedformore

decentralisedelectricitygenerationinordertoavoidnegativeimpactsonelectricityusers.

8.犆狅狀犮犾狌狊犻狅狀

Thischapterhasshownthatclimatechangepolicyinthecontextof

ambitiousgreenhousegasreductiontargetsmaybebeneficialtosecurityof

TheRelationshipbetweenClimateChangePoliciesandEnergySecurity!EuropeandBeyond 369  

supply.Renewableenergysources,energyefficiency,cleancoal,nuclearenergy

and,generally,anewinnovationdriveareexamplesofmutuallybeneficialareas.

However,manysecurityofsupplybenefitsarenotalwaysstraightforward.

Renewablesareoftenintermittent,thuscausingadditional—albeitdifferent—

securityofsupplyproblems.Energyefficiencyreducesimportdependenceonlyin

theshortandmediumterm.Andeventhisisnotautomaticallypositive,given

thatimportdependenceisnotproblematicperseinthecurrentEUenergy

system.Nuclearenergyhasitsownsecurityrisksandcleancoalisnotyet

available,withcarboncaptureandstoragetechnologiesyettobedemonstrated

onalargecommercialscale.

Whileitcangenerallybearguedthatclimatechangerelatedpoliciesare—at

leasttosomeextent—beneficialtosecurityofenergysupply,theoppositedoes

notalwaysholdtrue.Especiallygaspipelinepoliticsandrelatedinfrastructure

projectswillpredefineenergysuppliesin2050yearstocomeduetothelong

lifetimeofpipelinesand/orLNGinstallations,ifproperlymaintained.Inother

words,unlessequippedwithCCStechnologies,gassupplydiversificationefforts

maylockenergyconsumingcountriesintoanenergypatternthatisnotinline

withgreenhousegasemissionsrequirementstoavoiddangerousclimatechange.

However,whenlinkedtothesubstitutionofcoal,gascouldbeanintermediate

steptowardsreducingemissions.Otherexamplesoftechnologiesthatincrease

securityofsupplyatthecostofclimatechangearetarsands,oilshales,coalor

coaltoliquids.Thesetechnologiesshouldbeavoidedinthefuture.

Internationalcooperationwillbecrucialinachievingacleanandsecure

globalenergysystem.Someemergingeconomiesarenotonlymajorgreenhouse

gasemittersbutalsoproducersofcleanenergytechnologies.IRENAisastepin

therightdirection,butitneedstoinvolveallmajorglobalenergyusersand

producerstobeeffective.Similarly,itmaybeusefultoextenditsmandateto

othercleanenergytechnologies,includingenergyefficiency.

References

BP(2008),犅犘犛狋犪狋犻狊狋犻犮犪犾犚犲狏犻犲狑狅犳犠狅狉犾犱犈狀犲狉犵狔,June.

Egenhofer,C.andT.Legge(2001),犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔狅犳犈狀犲狉犵狔犛狌狆狆犾狔.犃犙狌犲狊狋犻狅狀犳狅狉犘狅犾犻犮狔狅狉

狋犺犲犕犪狉犽犲狋狊?CentreforEuropeanPolicyStudies(CEPS),November,Brussels.

Eskeland,G.,E.Jochem,H.Neufeldt,T.Traber,N.RiveandA.Behrens(2008),The

FutureofEuropeanElectricity:Choicesbefore2020,犆犈犘犛犘狅犾犻犮狔犅狉犻犲犳,164,July.

EuropeanCommission (2006),犃犮狋犻狅狀犘犾犪狀 犳狅狉 犈狀犲狉犵狔 犈犳犳犻犮犻犲狀犮狔:犚犲犪犾犻狊犻狀犵狋犺犲

犘狅狋犲狀狋犻犪犾,COM(2006)545,19October.

EuropeanCommission (2007),犌狉犲犲狀犘犪狆犲狉犉狅犾犾狅狑狌狆 犃犮狋犻狅狀犚犲狆狅狉狋狅狀犘狉狅犵狉犲狊狊犻狀

370   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

犚犲狀犲狑犪犫犾犲犈犾犲犮狋狉犻犮犻狋狔,COM(2006)849,10January.

EuropeanCommission(2008),犈犝犈狀犲狉犵狔犪狀犱犜狉犪狀狊狆狅狉狋犻狀犉犻犵狌狉犲狊,StatisticalPocketbook

2008,Brussels.

EuropeanNuclearSociety(2009),犖狌犮犾犲犪狉犘狅狑犲狉犘犾犪狀狋狊犻狀犈狌狉狅狆犲,online:http://www.

euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/n/nuclearpowerplanteurope.htm (February24,

2009).

IEAInternationalEnergyAgency(2007),犈狀犲狉犵狔犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔犪狀犱犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犘狅犾犻犮狔—犃狊狊犲狊狊犻狀犵

犐狀狋犲狉犪犮狋犻狅狀狊,Paris:OECD/IEA.

IEAInternationalEnergyAgency(2008),犠狅狉犾犱犈狀犲狉犵狔犗狌狋犾狅狅犽2008,OECD/IEA,Paris

IEAInternationalEnergyAgency(2009),犘狉犲狊犲狀狋犪狋犻狅狀狅犳犉犪狋犻犺犅犻狉狅犾犪狋狋犺犲4狋犺犃狀狀狌犪犾

犆犈犘犛/犈狆狊犻犾狅狀犈狀犲狉犵狔犆狅狀犳犲狉犲狀犮犲,17March,Brussels.

Kuntz,M.andJ.Dawe(2005),犚犲狀犲狑犪犫犾犲.犚犲犮犺犪狉犵犲犪犫犾犲.犚犲犿犪狉犽犪犫犾犲,MechanicalEngineering,

online: http://www.memagazine.org/backissues/membersonly/oct05/features/rerere/

rerere.html(January13,2009).

Larsson,R.(2007),犜犪犮犽犾犻狀犵犇犲狆犲狀犱犲狀犮狔:犜犺犲犈犝犪狀犱犻狋狊犈狀犲狉犵狔犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔犆犺犪犾犾犲狀犵犲狊,

Stockholm:SwedishDefenceAgency.

McKinsey(2009),PromotingEnergyEfficiencyintheDevelopingWorld,in:犜犺犲犕犮犓犻狀狊犲狔

犙狌犪狉狋犲狉犾狔,February2009.

MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology (2003),犜犺犲犉狌狋狌狉犲狅犳 犖狌犮犾犲犪狉犘狅狑犲狉.犃狀

犐狀狋犲狉犱犻狊犮犻狆犾犻狀犪狉狔犕犐犜犛狋狌犱狔,Boston.

Mueller,F.(2007),犈狀犲狉犵狔犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔—犇犲犿犪狀犱狊犐犿狆狅狊犲犱狅狀犌犲狉犿犪狀犪狀犱犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀

犉狅狉犲犻犵狀犘狅犾犻犮狔犫狔犪犆犺犪狀犵犲犱犆狅狀犳犻犵狌狉犪狋犻狅狀犻狀狋犺犲犠狅狉犾犱犈狀犲狉犵狔 犕犪狉犽犲狋,SWP

ResearchPaper2,Berlin:SWP.

REN21(2008),犚犲狀犲狑犪犫犾犲狊2007犌犾狅犫犪犾犛狋犪狋狌狊犚犲狆狅狉狋,REN21SecretariatandWashington,

D.C.,WorldwatchInstitute,Paris.

Sinden,G.(2005),犃狊狊犲狊狊犻狀犵狋犺犲犆狅狊狋狊狅犳犐狀狋犲狉犿犻狋狋犲狀狋犘狅狑犲狉犌犲狀犲狉犪狋犻狅狀,UKEnergy

ResearchCentre,5July.

Sioshansi,F.(2009),犐犚犈犖犃:犇狅犠犲犖犲犲犱犢犲狋犃狀狅狋犺犲狉犈狀犲狉犵狔犃犵犲狀犮狔?online:http://

www.energypolicyblog.com/2009/03/09/irenadoweneedyetanotherenergyagency/

(November30,2010).

UKEnergyResearchCentre(2007),犜犺犲犚犲犫狅狌狀犱犈犳犳犲犮狋:犪狀犃狊狊犲狊狊犿犲狀狋狅犳狋犺犲犈狏犻犱犲狀犮犲

犳狅狉犈犮狅狀狅犿狔狑犻犱犲犈狀犲狉犵狔犛犪狏犻狀犵狊犳狉狅犿犐犿狆狉狅狏犲犱犈狀犲狉犵狔犈犳犳犻犮犻犲狀犮狔,TheSussex

EnergyGroup,October,Sussex.

WorldNuclearAssociation(2008),犜犺犲犈犮狅狀狅犿犻犮狊狅犳犖狌犮犾犲犪狉犘狅狑犲狉,online:http://

www.worldnuclear.org/info/inf02.html.

"371  

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉12

犈狀犲狉犵狔犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔犪狀犱犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犆犺犪狀犵犲犻狀犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊

犫犲狋狑犲犲狀狋犺犲犈犝,犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪牶犕犪犼狅狉

犆犺犪犾犾犲狀犵犲狊犪狀犱犃狉犲犪狊犳狅狉犐狀狋犲狉狀犪狋犻狅狀犪犾犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀

)*"í* +",(-,#* .,/0* 1*"&2*(

1.犐狀狋狉狅犱狌犮狋犻狅狀

From astrategicandgeopoliticalperspective,energyisanimportant

bargainingchipininternationalrelations.Furthermore,globalwarmingisoneof

themainworriesforthefutureoftheplanet;ithasbeendirectlylinkedtothe

lifestylesofpeoplelivingintheindustrialisedcountriesandthekindsofenergy

theyconsume.Nowadays,climatechangeisnotamatteronlyfordiscussion

amongenvironmentalistsorotherexperts,asinthepast,butincreasinglya

significantpoliticalissue,relatedtohumansurvival.

Withregardtoenvironmentalandenergyissues,LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

(LAC)countrieshavebrokenthetrendsofshortageanddependencythattraditionally

characterisedtheirrelationswiththedevelopedworld.Thus,LACcountrieshavea

specialroletoplayandmuchtosayinexternaldialoguesregardingthesetwosubjects.

Thischapterwillfirstgivesomegeneralbackgroundaboutenvironmental

andenergyresourcesinLAC,providingsomecluesforabetterunderstandingof

theregionalsituation,followedbyacloserlookatintraregionalLACdialogues

andcooperation,aswellaswiththeEUandChina.Finally,theinterestsof

LACwithintheframeworkofglobalmultilateralismandthelatestresponsesof

globalregulatorymechanismsareexamined.

2.犔犃犆犛犻狋狌犪狋犻狅狀狑犻狋犺狉犲犵犪狉犱狋狅犈狀犲狉犵狔犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔犪狀犱犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犆犺犪狀犵犲

Inthefieldofenergysecurity,LACsharesasetofcommongoalsandchallenges,

suchasseekingtodiversifytheenergygrid,incorporatingrenewableenergiesasakey

elementinnationalindependenceandadoptingsustainableenergystrategies.Allthese

372   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

thingswouldgivetheregionastrongerpositiontocompeteinworldmarkets.

TheLACregionhasenormouspotentialintermsofenvironmentaland

energyresources.Itisoneoftherichestbiologicalzonesontheplanet,hosting

40percentoftheworldsanimalandplantspecies(CEPAL2010:120),fresh

waterresources,enormousfertilelandsandfossilfuelreserves.

Withregardtorenewableenergies,LACisparticipatinginthesearchfor

geothermal,water,solarandwindpower,amongotherthings.Ithaslarge

expansesofsoilslyingfallowandlow productivityperhectare,increasing

developmentofmonoculturesforbiomass(sugarcane,soy,palmtree)andincipient

developmentofsecondgenerationbiofuels(notreadyforcommercialisationforadecade

orso).

2.1 RenewableversusNonrenewableEnergy

Intheirreversibleprocessofbuildingupaglobalbiofuelsmarket,LAC

countriesareparticipatinginvariousways,althoughBrazilistheprincipalactor

inthissector.However,biofuelsarenotseenasthesolutiontoenergyneedsin

LAC.Theyarenotpromotedbythesamekindofenthusiasticpropagandaasin

theEuropeanUnion,beingconsideredacomplementaryenergysupply,together

withotheralternatives,suchasbiogas,solar,wind,hydroelectricandgeothermal

power,andeven—despitethecontroversy—nuclearpower.Furthermore,biofuels

productionisthesubjectofheateddebate,asitisaproventhreattofoodsecurityand

canleadtohungerinvulnerablepopulations.

Intermsofnonrenewableenergy,someLatinAmericaneconomiesare

basedongasandoilproduction,especiallyVenezuelaandBolivia.Nevertheless,

itisestimatedthatin2010oilproductionwillreachitspeakandthenstartto

decline(Sohr2009:2223).VenezuelasreservesexceedthoseofSaudiArabia,

however,andithasthelargestnaturalgasdepositsinSouthAmerica.Oil

productionisalreadydeclininginmostproducercountriesinLAC,dueto

inefficiencyandalackofexternalinvestment—foreigndirectinvestmentfellby

41percentinBoliviain2007andby34percentinEcuador(WWC/FLACSO

2008:23).Thisshowsthatpoliticalandsocialstabilityisaconditionthatmost

ofLACcountriesstillcannotguarantee.

Despitetheinternalandexternalproblems,thisdeficitcouldbeovercomeby

meansoftheunmeasuredcapacityoflightoilfieldslocatedoffshore,mainlyoffBrazil

(CariocaandTupireserves).LatinAmericastillhasalotofsurfaceoiltoexploit,and

althoughthishasbeendepleted,itcouldevenshifttothenextstageof“type2

petroleum”,whichwillrequirelargerinvestmentsinordertobecomeoperationalinthe

nearfuture.Clearly,the“oilissue”isnotoveranddonewithinLAC.

EnergySecurityandClimateChangeinRelationsbetweentheEU,Chinaand

LatinAmerica:MajorChallengesandAreasforInternationalCooperation373  

Besides,nuclearenergyisbeingpromoted—evenwithintheframeworkof

theOrganizationofAmericanStates(OAS)—asavalidsupplyoptioninLAC,

giventhattheregionwillneedtosatisfyincreasingenergydemand,likelyto

growby75percentby2030,accordingtotheInterAmericanDevelopmentBank

(IADB)(Cruz2008:20).Thisisacontroversialissueas,intermsofthe

greenhousegasemissions(GGE)responsibleforglobalwarming,nuclearpower

ischeaperthanfossilfueloptionsandlesspolluting.

2.2 LatinAmericanStrengths

Inenergyterms,LatinAmericaistheonlyoccidentalregioncapableof

beingselfsupplying.Inthissense,itcanbeseenastheonly“sovereignregion”,

asitdoesnotdependonexternalsupplies.

Asalreadymentioned,ithaslargescaleresourcesintermsoffossilfuels,

butalsorenewables.Inagriculture,ithasgreatpotentialforincreasingits

cultureandproductivityperhectare.Furthermore,itsbiomassenergypotentialupto

2050couldrepresentbetween17and26percentofglobalenergy,largerthanany

otherregionintheworld(CEPAL2007:12).Suitablelandavailabilityisoneofthe

mainstrengthsofLatinAmericancountries,complementedbywaterresourcesand

stable,warmtemperatures,concentratedinwettropicalzones,essentialforhigheryields

insomekeyproductsusedforbiofuelsproduction,suchassugarcaneandpalmtrees.

2.3 LatinAmericanWeaknesses

Butthegreatbenefitofhavingenormousnaturalresourcesis,atthesametime,

Latin Americas Achillesheel,asitisextremely vulnerableto ecosystem

transformationsresultingfromglobalwarming.Infact,LatinAmericaisoneofthe

mostvulnerableregions,andisalreadysufferingfromdesertification,droughts,

floods,thaws,aloweringoffreshwateravailabilityandexpansionoftropicaldiseases,

amongotherthings.ThisismadeworsebythefactthatLACeconomiesaremostly

dependantonrawmaterialsandnaturalresourcesforexportsandconsumption.

AlthoughtheLACregionisenergyselfsufficient,about12percentofthe

populationstilldonothaveaccesstoelectricityand33donotevenhaveaccessto

drinkablewater(WorldBank2010:58).Besides,theregionisinefficientin

energyconsumption—theEUusesonlyhalfasmuchenergyforproduction—and

itisunabletosetcommongoals,toagreeonlongtermpoliciesortobuilda

coordinatedenergymarket.Itmakesuseofenergyresourcestopromotenational

interestsandpayslittleattentiontoenvironmentaldegradation.Evenmoredisturbing

isthefactthatgreenawarenessisverylowamongcitizensofLACcountries.

374   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

2.4 GeopoliticalValueofEnergy

Asalready mentioned,energyin Latin Americaisafactorpromoting“independence”,inthesensethatitdoesnotneedexternalresources.Atthesame

time,itisafactorinpoliticalrestructuring,aligningthedifferentLACcountries

accordingtotheirenergycapabilities.Thismeansthattheyaredividedinto“energy

producers”and“energyconsumers”.CountriessuchasBrazil,Venezuela,Mexico,

BoliviaandEcuadorareenergyproducers,whileChileisanetconsumer,andinthe

middle,therearemanycountriestryingtoestablishabalance.Inaddition,anew

categoryof“energynationalism”hasemergedincountriesthatseektousetheir

advantageasproducerstoestablishanewregionalpowerbalance.

3.犜犺狉犲犲犐犿狆狅狉狋犪狀狋犆狅狀狊犻犱犲狉犪狋犻狅狀狊犠犺犲狀犃狆狆狉狅犪犮犺犻狀犵犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪

3.1 FirstConsideration:LatinAmericasDiversity

AgoodstartingpointforunderstandingLatinAmericaistothinkofitasa

puzzle,composedofdifferentorevenoppositezones.LatinAmericaandthe

Caribbeancannotbethoughtofasawhole,andextraregionaldialoguemust

takethisintoaccount.Infact,itisaregionofsubregions.

Ingeographicalterms,theLACregioncanbedescribedasfoursubregionsandtwo

nonintegratedcountries.FromNorthtoSouth,thereisMexicoatthetop;thenCentral

AmericaandtheCaribbean,whicharegroupedintheCentralAmericanIntegration

System(SICA)andtheCaribbeanCommunity(CARICOM).InSouthAmerica,there

aretheAndean(CANgroup)andtheAtlanticcountries(MERCOSUR).Thesetwo

SouthAmericansystemshavenowcreatedanewmechanism,calledUNASUR.Atthe

bottomofthemap,thereisChile,whichisanisolatedcountry.

Thissubregionaldistributionembodiesawiderangeofcharacteristics,as

wellasdifferentdiagnosesandresponsestoenvironmentalandenergymatters.

Eachsubregionhasitsownenvironmentalinstitutionsandavarietyofsub

regionalandnationalpolicies,prioritiesandstrategies,showingthevaried

relevancegiventoclimatechangeandenergyinLACsubsystems(Box1).

犆犲狀狋狉犪犾犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀犐狀狋犲犵狉犪狋犻狅狀犛狔狊狋犲犿(犛犐犆犃)

犕犪犻狀犳犲犪狋狌狉犲狊

ItincludessevenCentralAmericancountries(Guatemala,Belize,El

Salvador,Honduras,Nicaragua,CostaRicaandPanama)andoneCaribbean

country(DominicanRepublic)withhighoilandgasdependency.Halfof

thesecountriesarealliedtoPetrocaribe,aVenezuelaninitiative.

EnergySecurityandClimateChangeinRelationsbetweentheEU,Chinaand

LatinAmerica:MajorChallengesandAreasforInternationalCooperation375  

犛狆犲犮犻犳犻犮狉犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犻狀狊狋犻狋狌狋犻狅狀狊犻狀犛犐犆犃

TheCentralAmericanCommissionforEnvironmentandDevelopment

(CCAD)wascreatedin1989.Itbringstogetheralltheenvironment

ministriesandhostsavarietyofinstitutions,includingPREVDA(fornatural

disasterprevention)andPRESANCA(forfoodsecurity).

犕犪犻狀狅犫犼犲犮狋犻狏犲狊

TheCCADsmissionisto“contributetosustainabledevelopmentinthe

CentralAmericanregion,strengtheningtheregimeofcooperationand

integrationforenvironmentalmanagement”.Thisistobeachievedbya2005

2010EnvironmentalPlanfortheCentralAmericanRegion,withtwomain

tasks:preventionandcontrolofenvironmentalpollution,andconservation

andsustainableuseofnaturalheritage.

Withinthisframework,in2007theCCADdesigneda “Sustainable

EnergyStrategy”upto2020,aimedatreducingdemandforproductsderived

fromcrudeoil,reducingenergydependence,increasingrenewablesources,

improvingefficiencyandpromotingthejudicioususeofenergytoincorporate

newtechnologiesandlesspollutingenergysources,increaseaccesstoenergy

servicesamonglowincomeandisolatedpopulations,relievetheeffectsof

energyuseandproductionontheenvironmentanddevelopenergyprojects

compatiblewiththeenvironmentandhumansettlement.Thisstrategyis

followedupatregionalsummitsonclimatechangeandtheenvironment.

Source:www.sica.int/ccad.

犃狀犱犲犪狀犆狅犿犿狌狀犻狋狔(犆犃犖)

犕犪犻狀犳犲犪狋狌狉犲狊

  CANincludesfourAndeancountries(Colombia,Ecuador,Peruand

Bolivia),allofthemselfsufficientenergyexporters(gas,petroleum).A

totalof28percentoftheirenergyisclean(CEPAL2005:5)and,including

Venezuela,theyaccountforasmuchas25percentofglobalecological

diversity.Theyarehighlyvulnerabletoclimatechange,astheglobal

temperaturehasincreasedintheAndeanregionby70percentmorethanthe

globalaverage,causingseveredamage(forexample,duringthepast35years

Peruvianglaciershavedecreasedby22percent,affectingwateravailability)

(SGCAN2008:9,14,17).

犛狆犲犮犻犳犻犮狉犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犻狀狊狋犻狋狌狋犻狅狀狊犻狀犆犃犖

  OfficialcoordinationmechanismsintheAndeanIntegrationSystemare:

AndeanEnergyAlliance,AndeanEnvironmentalAgenda.

376   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

犕犪犻狀狅犫犼犲犮狋犻狏犲狊

  Intheenergyfield,CANisfocusingonelectricityandgasinterconnection,as

wellasthecreationofenergyclustersandthedevelopmentofrenewableenergies,

linkedtoanintegratedsocialdevelopmentplan.

  Intheenvironmentalfield,theAndeanAgenda(20062010)includes

fouritems:climatechange,biodiversity,waterresourcemanagementand

preventionofnaturaldisasters.Thereisalsoregionalcoordinationofnational

authoritieswithintheframeworkofCleanDevelopmentMechanismsforthe

mitigationoftheeffectsofgreenhousegases.

Source:www.comunidadandina.org.

犛狅狌狋犺犲狉狀犆狅犿犿狅狀犕犪狉犽犲狋(犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚)

犕犪犻狀犳犲犪狋狌狉犲狊

  ThisincludesfivecountriesfromtheeasternsideofSouthAmerica,

includingthemainoilproducer(Venezuela),themainbiofuelsproducer

(Brazil)andoneofthebiggestagricultureproducers(Argentina),together

withtwosmall,energydependantcountries:UruguayandParaguay.This

regionhaswideexpansesofarablelandandamajorundergroundwater

reserve(1,190000km2).

犛狆犲犮犻犳犻犮狉犲犵犻狅狀犪犾犻狀狊狋犻狋狌狋犻狅狀狊犻狀犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚

None.

犕犪犻狀狅犫犼犲犮狋犻狏犲狊牶

  Therearedifferentnationalgoals.Thecommonobjectivesarerelated

mainlytotheenvironment,includingbiodiversity,biosecurityandecotourism,with

specificactionagainstdesertification,earthdegradation,droughtandairquality.In

2007,MERCOSURcountriesagreedonacommonpolicyforthepromotionof

andcooperationinsustainableproductionandconsumption,aimingto

generate “initiativesforimprovingenvironmentalperformanceandthe

efficiencyofproductionprocesses,aswellascooperationintheadoptionof

sustainableproductionandconsumptionpractices,inanattempttoincrease

competitivenessandreduceriskstohumanhealthandtheenvironment”

(MERCOSUR/CMC2007:Art.2°).

Theirinstitutionalandpolicydevelopmentsindicatethatthethreemainsub

regionsinLatinAmericahavedifferentapproachestoenergyandenvironmental

issues.Lately,however,therehasbeensomemovementinacommondirection,

asinSICAandMERCOSUR—regardingbiofuelproduction(ledmainlybyBrazil

EnergySecurityandClimateChangeinRelationsbetweentheEU,Chinaand

LatinAmerica:MajorChallengesandAreasforInternationalCooperation377  

andGuatemala).TheconsensuswasreachedBetweenCANandMERCOSUR

withintheframeworkofUNASURattheMargaritaIslandSummitin2007,

wherethe12SouthAmericancountriesestablishedthebasisforaregional

energyintegrationstrategy.InMay2008,aSouthAmericanEnergyCouncilwas

launchedinordertodrawupaRegionalEnergyTreatyfortacklingissuesrelated

topetroleum,gas,powersavingandalternativeenergy(biofuels,wind,solar

andwaterenergy).Twoyearslater,inMay2010,theguidelinesfortheSouth

AmericanEnergyStrategy,aswellasanActionPlanandadraftstructureofthe

EnergyTreaty,wereapproved.Itisexpected,therefore,thatby2011South

AmericashouldhavedevelopeditsfirstregionalEnergyTreaty.

Innationalterms,althoughtheLACregionisanetoilexporter,threecountries

accountforalmost80percentofoilproductionandover90percentofoilreserves

(Venezuela,BrazilandMexico).Ontheotherhand,mostofthesmallercountriesare

oildependant(OLADE2008:2122).Therefore,thereisneitherhomogeneitynor

acommondiscourseaboutenergyintheLACregion.Therearevariousnational

interests—mainlybetweenoilproducingcountriesandagriculturalcountries—

heterogeneouslawsandpoliticalvisions(VenezuelaandBrazil,thetwomain

countriesingeopoliticalenergyterms,areatoddsinthisrespect),aswellas

politicisedandconflictualenergyrelationsbetweenLACnations.

ThisdiversitycanbeillustratedbydataonthebiofuelssituationinLAC

economies.

犜犪犫犾犲1 犛犿犪犾犾犪狀犱犕犲犱犻狌犿犛犻狕犲犱犔犃犆犆狅狌狀狋狉犻犲狊犻狀狋犺犲犉狌犲犾犕犪狉犽犲狋

犉犲犪狋狌狉犲狊 Biomass

producersand

oilexporters

Biomass

producersand

oilimporters

Biomass

exportersand

oilexporters

Biomass

exportersand

oilimporters

犆狅狌狀狋狉犻犲狊 Mexico

Venezuela

ChileDominican

Republic

Nicaragua

Panama

Argentina

BoliviaColombia

Ecuador

PeruParaguay

UruguayCosta

RicaGuatemala

Honduras

Source:IADB2007.

犜犪犫犾犲2 犖犪狋犻狅狀犪犾犌狅犪犾狊狑犻狋犺狉犲犵犪狉犱狋狅犅犻狅犳狌犲犾狊犻狀犔犃犆犆狅狌狀狋狉犻犲狊

Country Bioethanol Biodiesel

Argentina 5%—2010 5%—2010

Bolivia — 2,5%—2007,20%—2015

Brazil 22%,25%—2001 5%—2010,20%—2020

378   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

Country Bioethanol Biodiesel

Colombia 10%—2006(byregions) 5%—2008

CostaRica 7%,5%—2010 2%

Ecuador 20%—2020

Honduras 30%

Mexico Testinguntil2010

Panama,

Nicaragua,

ElSalvador,

Guatemala

15%replacementoffossilfuels

Paraguay 18%1%—2007,3%—2008,5%—

2009

Peru7%,8%—2006(byregions,

progressive)

5%—2008(byregions,

progressive)

Dominican

Republic15%—2015 2%—2015

Uruguay 5%—2014 2%—2011,5%—2012

Source:IICA2010.

犜犪犫犾犲3 犔犲犵犻狊犾犪狋犻狅狀狅狀犅犻狅犳狌犲犾狊犻狀犔犃犆犆狅狌狀狋狉犻犲狊

CountryLawsestablishing

ethanolincorporation

Lawsestablishing

ethanolproduction

incentives

Lawsandregulations

definingethanol

quality

Argentina

Brazil

Colombia

CostaRica None None

DominicanRepublic None None None

ElSalvador None None

Guatemala None None

Jamaica None None None

Mexico None None None

Paraguay None

Peru None None

Source:IICA2007.

EnergySecurityandClimateChangeinRelationsbetweentheEU,Chinaand

LatinAmerica:MajorChallengesandAreasforInternationalCooperation379  

3.2 SecondConsideration:LatinAmericaIsMorethanJustBrazil

BesidesthediversitybetweensmallandmediumsizedLACcountries,as

wellasbetweenthedifferentLACsubregions,adistinctionmustbemade

betweenBrazilandtherestoftheregion.

Inmostextraregionaldialogues(US,G20,G5andsoon),Brazilis

increasingly acting as Latin Americas representative. With regard to

environmentalandenergyissues,however,itisimportanttonoteBrazils

distinctiveness.

Brazilispromotingbiofuelsproduction,inwhichitistheworldleader.

Afterpursuingthispolicyfor30years,itistheprimarybioethanolexporterin

theworld market(OLADE2008:84).Ithasthenecessarytechnological

capacities,consolidatedinstitutionsandgovernmentpolicies,aswellasthemost

extensiveterritory.However,whileBrazilisenhancingitsparticipationinthe

multilateralsystem,LACspresenceisstillveryweak.

3.3 ThirdConsideration:LACIsNotOneoftheMainCulpritswithregardto

GlobalWarming

  LAChasbeenstronglyaffectedbyglobalwarming—whichoriginatedin

greenhousegases—andispayingthepricefortheenergyabuseofthe

industrialisedeconomies.LACisresponsibleforonlyaround10percentof

greenhousegasesworldwide(CEPAL2009:109).Atthesametime,itis

expectedtoproduceaccordingtocleanstandardsandtohaveanequalsharein

thecostsofsolvingtheproblem.Inaddition,helpfromdevelopedcountriesis

focusedmainlyonthepromotionofacarbonmarket,whichwouldenablethe

developingcountriestobuy“therighttopollute”.

Animportantsourceofgreenhousegasesisthedeforestationoftropical

rainforests,asforestscapturecarbonintheirplants,treesandsoils.Tropical

forestsabsorb18percentofCO2,asakindof“freegift”fromnature.The

situationisparticularlyseriousinLatinAmerica,wheretherateofdeforestation

isdoubletheglobalaverage:between1990and2005,forexample,Central

Americalost23.3percentofitsforests(CEPAL2009:47).

Fromanotherperspective,globalwarmingisnot“fair”,asitaffectssome

regionsoftheplanetadverselyandfavoursothers.Regardingthedistributionof

impactsandvulnerabilities,the UNsIntergovernmentalPanelonClimate

Change(IPCC)clearlystatedthat“therearesharpdifferencesacrossregionsand

thoseintheweakesteconomicpositionareoftenthemostvulnerabletoclimate

changeandarefrequentlythemostsusceptibletoclimaterelateddamages”

(UNIPCC2007:65).Thus,thosewithawarmclimatecouldhardlybearrises

380   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

of1degree,whileinthecountriesoftheNorth,evenathreedegreerisecould

leadtogrowthinagriculturalproductionandenergysavingsinthewinter.

ClimatechangecouldcausehungerintheLACregion,asgrainsarethemost

susceptiblecrops(mainlycorn,riceandcoffee)inthisrespect.Forinstance,

theIPCCpredictsa70percentdiminutionofthesecropsinBrazilandMexicoby

2050.Thesituationcouldturnouttobeevenmoreserious,however,asthe

costsof water pumping will make the exploitation of water reserves

unsustainableby2030.

4.犈犝犔犃犆犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊狅狀犈狀犲狉犵狔犪狀犱犈狀狏犻狉狅狀犿犲狀狋犪犾犐狊狊狌犲狊

TheEU andtheLACregionareengagedindialogueonsustainable

development.ItwasoneofthetopicsdiscussedattheEULACLimaSummit,in

May2008,togetherwithpovertyandsocialcohesion,andalsoattheMadrid

SummitinMay2010fromtheperspectiveoftechnologyandinnovation.Three

topicsareofparticularimportancewithregardtosustainabledevelopment:the

environment,climatechangeandenergy.Thisdialogueisintendedtoproducea

globalenvironmentalandenergypact.

Withregardtoenvironmentalandenergyissues,relationsbetweenLatin

AmericaandtheEuropeanUnionarebasedonthefactthatLACisthesupplier

andtheEUthecustomer.Inenergymarkets,thisrelationshipendowsLAC

withenormousadvantages:theEUisdependentonexternalenergyandtheLAC

regionisautonomousinthatrespect;theEU haslimitedcapacitiesfor

agriculturalbiomassdevelopmentandLAChasenormouscapacityforenergy

production,bothrenewableandfossil.

IncontrasttotheLACregion,theEUdoeshaveacommonenergypolicy,anda

20/20/20Plan,aimedatreducinggreenhousegasesby20percentby2020in

comparisonto1990levels,increasingrenewableenergyuseby20percentandreducing

energyconsumptionby20percent.By2020,biofuelsshouldrepresent10percentof

totalfuelconsumptionintheEU.Toachievethis,alargeshareofbiomasswillbe

importedfromtheSouth,especiallyfromLatinAmerica(Fritz2008:4).

LACistheonlyWesternregioncapableofsupplyingitsownfirstgeneration

biofuelneeds,whiletheEU—aswellastheUnitedStates—willfacesignificant

shortandmediumtermproblemsinthisrespect(CEPAL2008:21).Inthis

sense,theEUneedstheLACregiontomeetitsgoals.

AccordingtoECLAC,in2005theEUwasalreadyusing60percentofthe

landdedicatedtomajorcropsforbiodieselproduction,andwouldhavetotriple

theareatomeetthe2020demand.TheEUsnonfoodcropcapacityisabout8.2

millionhectaresandasimilarquantityoflandislyingfallow,butforits2020

EnergySecurityandClimateChangeinRelationsbetweentheEU,Chinaand

LatinAmerica:MajorChallengesandAreasforInternationalCooperation381  

targetsitwillneed23millionhectares,andsomustlookbeyonditsbordersfor

newcultivablelands.Withinthesametimehorizon,LACwillneedonly9per

centofitsarablelandtosatisfyitsownbiofuelneeds,leavinggreatpotentialfor

newcrops.Thus,itisestimatedthatdemandinLACwillincrease,possibly

affectingtheregionsruralenvironment(CEPAL2008:2122).

Asaconsequence,theEUstrategyforbiofuelshaslaiddownthreemain

objectives,twoofthemaimingtopromotebiofuelproductionindeveloping

countries,whileatthesametimeexpressingitscommitmenttosustainable

developmentandcompetitiveness(EC2006:4).

In2007,withastrategysimilartoonepreviouslyimplementedbytheUS,

theEUforgedastrategicalliancewithBrazil,includingcooperationinrenewable

energy,especiallyinbiofuelsandenergytechnologiesbasedonlowcarbon

emissions,aswellasincreasedenergyefficiency.Brazilisthemainregional

exporterofenergytotheEU,followedbyGuatemalaandPeru.

Itisimportanttonotethat,besidesthiskindofexchange,bothregions

havedifferentregionalobjectives.FortheEU,theprioritiesaretoensureits

energysupply,toimproveenergyefficiencyandtocompleteitsinternalenergy

market.TheLACregionisaimingatclimatechangemitigation,thepreservation

ofbiodiversity andthe prevention ofnaturaldisasters.These different

perspectivesshouldmakecooperationbetweenthetworegionsveryfruitful.

5.犆犺犻狀犪犔犃犆犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊狅狀犈狀犲狉犵狔犪狀犱犈狀狏犻狉狅狀犿犲狀狋犪犾犐狊狊狌犲狊

Eventhough Chinaandthe LACregionarenominallybothinthe

“developing”category,theyareclearlynotthesame.Moreover,China,likethe

EU,operatesinLatinAmericaasadonor,investorandsupplierofgoods.In

thissense,ChinaviewsitsrelationswithLAC,fromastrategicviewpoint,as

directedtowardsbuildinga “comprehensiveandcooperativepartnership”

(ChineseGovernment2008),alongthesamelinesastheobjectivesproposedby

theEUand,recently,bytheUnitedStates.Tradestatisticsillustratethisvery

well:inthepastdecade,commercebetweenChinaandtheLACcountrieshas

increasedtenfold,risingfromUSD12.595billionin2000toUSD120.61billion

in2009(SELA2010:21).Since2007,ChinaLACbusinesssummitshavetaken

placeonanannualbasis,helpingtoincreasetradeandinvestment.

In2008,theChinesegovernmentissueditsfirstpolicypaperonLatinAmerica

andtheCaribbean.InitsWhitePaperontheLACregion,Chinaoutlinesrelationsin

fourareas:(1)politics,(2)economics,(3)cultureandsocialpolicyand(4)peace,

securityandlegalaffairs.ChinaspolicypaperonLACisa34pointstrategy,oneof

which,intheareaofeconomics,isdevotedto“ResourceandEnergyCooperation”.

382   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

Thematterisaddressedverybrieflyandgenerally,statingonlythat“the

Chinesesidewishestoexpandanddeepenmutuallybeneficialcooperationwith

LatinAmericanandCaribbeancountriesinresourcesandenergywithinbilateral

cooperationframeworks”(ChineseGovernment2008).

Intheenergysector,ChinahasgrowinginterestsinLAC:alliances,loans

andinvestmentsinminerals,carbon,gasandpetroleum,mainlywithBraziland

Venezuela.Butenvironmentalissuesstillarenotonthebilateralagenda.

Chinahasbeenconfirmedasaworldpowerwithintheframeworkofthe

G20.Itnowhastodecidewhatkindofpoweritwillbe.Undoubtedly,Chinahas

aroletoplayintheLACregionand,atthesametime,needstoreinforceits

internationalinfluencebyestablishingapositivepresenceinemergingregions.In

thiscontext,itisimportanttomentionChinasjoiningoftheInterAmerican

DevelopmentBankas48thmember,thefreetradeagreementswithChile,Peru

andCostaRica,aswapagreementwith Argentina—permittingcommercial

exchangesbasedontheyuan,withoutusingtheUSdollar—aswellasthe

expansionofinvestmentsinmining(copper,aluminiumandironore)andenergy(petroleumandgas)inLatinAmerica.

6.犔犃犆犐狀狋犲狉犲狊狋狊犻狀犈狓狋犲狉狀犪犾犇犻犪犾狅犵狌犲狊狅狀犈狀犲狉犵狔犪狀犱狋犺犲犈狀狏犻狉狅狀犿犲狀狋

AnyglobalortrilateralagreementmusttakeintoaccounttheLACregions

heterogeneity,includingBrazilsdifferentenergysituationcomparedtotheother

LACcountries,andLACslowcontributiontoglobalwarming,whilebeingthe

mostadverselyaffectedregion.Asaconsequence,whateverthescenario,some

basicprinciplesmustbeestablished,suchastherecognitionofasymmetries,the

specificneedsanddemandsofindividualcountriesorsubregionsandsustainable

development.

6.1 AgreementsandFunding

Giventheasymmetrictrilateralrelations,theLACregionshouldbenefit

fromthestatusofspeciallyfavouredpartyininternationalagreements.LACs

commitmentsmusttakeintoaccountthedamagecausedbytheregionandthe

responsibilityofother parties;in other words,commitments based on

responsibilityorcapacities(emissionsorGDP),ashasbeenproposedbythe

EuropeanCommission.

Atthesametime,asymmetriesalsorequirehigherspendingandforeign

investments,inorder,forexample,todevelopcleantechnologies,create

infrastructureandsupportextractiveactivitiesthatcouldhelptheLACregionto

bemorecompetitive.Also,researchinvestmentsmustbeapriority.

EnergySecurityandClimateChangeinRelationsbetweentheEU,Chinaand

LatinAmerica:MajorChallengesandAreasforInternationalCooperation383  

6.2 FocusedCooperation

LAChasthelandcapacity,but—withtheexceptionofBrazil—itdoesnotyet

havethecapitalandtechnology,institutionalcapacitiesandpoliticalandlegislative

frameworksrequiredtoattainsustainabledevelopmentwithregardtoenergy.

Cooperationmustfocuson犪犱犪狆狋犪狋犻狅狀犪狀犱狋犺犲犿犻狋犻犵犪狋犻狅狀狅犳犮犾犻犿犪狋犲犮犺犪狀犵犲,

helpingtopreventitsnegativeconsequences,suchaslossofbiodiversityor

deforestation.ThemaintenanceofCentralAmericanandAmazonforestsisvitalfor

carbonemissionsreduction,butthepressurefornewarablelandspartlyduetothe

increasingdemandforbiofuelproductionrunscountertothisobjective.

Asecondpriorityisthesearchforrenewableenergies,takinggoodcareto

preservethenaturalheritageandfoodsecurity,andtakingintoconsideration

nationalandsubregionalspecificities.TheEUhasbeenagoodexampleofthis

kindofcooperation,supportingrenewableenergyprojects—suchastheEnergy

andEnvironmentPartnershipwithCentralAmerica,financedbyFinnishand

Austriancooperation.However,狉犲狀犲狑犪犫犾犲犲狀犲狉犵狔犿狌狊狋犫犲狌狀犱犲狉狊狋狅狅犱犳狉狅犿狋犺犲

狆犲狉狊狆犲犮狋犻狏犲狅犳狆狉狅犿狅狋犻狀犵犪犱犻狏犲狉狊犻犳犻犲犱犵狉犻犱,notonlybiofuels,whichcanbe

hazardousforLACdevelopment.

InitiativessuchasEUrocLima,launchedatthe5thEULACsummit,Lima

2008andaimedatstemmingclimatechange,isastartingpointforbiregional

cooperation,butitisstillinitsinitialstagesandmustbedeepenedtohaveareal

impact.TheMadridActionPlanadoptedatthelastEULACsummitinMay

2010hastakennewstepsinthisdirection.

6.3 AWinWinSituation

Fromacommercialpointofview,theLACregioncangainafootholdinthe

marketforcarboncredits.Butacarbonmarketisnotnecessarilyaneffective

solution.Itrelievesotherregionsofresponsibilityforgreenhousegases,but

LACexportsmustbepromoted.Sometradebarriersmustbecarefullyanalysed,

astheyaffecttheLACregionscompetitivenessintheenergyandgreen

markets—mainlyagriculturalsubsidies,butalsoecolabelling,fueltaxesand

CivilAviationpolicyintheEU.Intermsofinvestments,theinstallationofclean

standardindustriesisdesirable,inordertoboostgoodpracticesinproductionin

LACcountries.

Regardingdemandforbiofuels,anumberofrequirementsmustbetaken

intoconsideration,suchastheloweringofagriculturalsubsidiestoallowfair

competition,theimpactofbiomassproductiononfoodpricesandaproper

balanceintheuseoflandandwater.Definingtheenergybasewithregardto

384   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

biomassmusttakeintoconsiderationfoodsecurityinaccordancewithreaching

theMillenniumGoalsinLACcountries.Theperspectivesofregionalbodiessuch

astheEconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC)or

theFoodandAgricultureOrganization(FAO)canhelporientatethesearchfora

basicconsensus.

The狋狉犪狀狊犳犲狉犲狀犮犲狅犳犲犮狅狋犲犮犺狀狅犾狅犵犻犲狊isalsoarequirementforlowcarbon

development.ThiswillallowtheLACregiontoincreaseitsenergyefficiency

and,atthesametime,openupnewmarketsforcleandevelopmentproducts

(solarcells,windturbinesandotherthings)fromindustrialisedcountries.

Lastbutnotleast,climatechangemitigationisnotonlyamatterforgovernments

andregionalormultilateralbodies.Firstofall,societiesandindividualsmustchange

theirbehaviour.Enhancingpublicawarenessbymeansofactivitiesdirectedtowards

buildinganew“greenpublicopinion”isurgentlyneeded.Inthisarea,theEUisa

goodmodel,aswellasapotentialcooperationpartner.

7.犜犺犲犈犝,犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱狋犺犲犔犃犆犚犲犵犻狅狀犻狀犕狌犾狋犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犅狅犱犻犲狊

Therearemorethan15multilateralenvironmentalagreementsdealingwith

virtuallyeverykeyissue:wetlands,culturalandnaturalheritage,endangered

species,migratoryspecies,theseas,theozonelayer,hazardous waste,

chemicalsandpesticides,organicpollutants,biologicaldiversity,desertification

andbiotechnology.Butintheenergysector,thereareonlyanumberofbilateral

orregionalagreements—forinstance,theEnergyCharterTreatyintheEurasian

regionortheEnergySecurityTreatywithintheframeworkofthePetrocaribe

initiative—asitisconsideredprimarilyastrategiceconomicissue,ratheran

environmentalone.

Energysecurity—understoodsimplyastheneedtosafeguardenergy

supplies—cannotbereducedtoeconomicconsiderations;itisamultidimensional

issue.Ifthisvitalmatterisledbymarketforcesorreducedtoenergydialogue

betweenpartialstakeholders,globalsurveillanceinthisrespectwillfail.In

energysecurityandclimatechangemitigationacoordinatedmultilateralapproach

istheonlywaytosucceed.

FortheLACregion,energysecurityisnotjustamatterofstablesupplyat

lowerprices.Othercomponentsarecrucial,suchasenvironmentalpreservation

andsocialconditions.Thesedimensionsmustguideanyglobalagreement.

Themainmultilateralcommitmentwithregardtoclimatechangeislaid

downintheKyotoProtocol,whichiscurrentlybeingupdated.Therecent

ConferenceofthePartiestotheUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange

(COP15)inCopenhagendidnotreachaglobalconsensus,buttherewillbe

EnergySecurityandClimateChangeinRelationsbetweentheEU,Chinaand

LatinAmerica:MajorChallengesandAreasforInternationalCooperation385  

anotheropportunityinCancún(COP16)attheendofthisyear.However,and

despitetheintentionsoftheEUandChinatoimplementpreventivemeasures

withintheframeworkof“Kyotoplus”—thatis,toreducetheiremissionsfar

beyondtheKyotogoals—thepossibilityofimplementinganeffectiveglobalpact

seemsuncertain.Itisexpectedthat,duetothecurrentconfigurationoftheUS

Congress,thelargestpollutercountryisunlikelytogetonboard.

Tobereallyefficientinreducingtheimpactofglobalwarming,allthe

parties—mainlytheEU,China,theUSandIndia—mustactinacoordinated

way.Thisalsoentailsthatthelargereconomiesshouldmakeagreatereffortand

smalleconomiesshouldbehelpedtoparticipateinthiscommonpursuit,finding

innovativefundingmechanismstosupportaglobalgreendevelopmentmodel.

Atthesametime,itisdesirabletocomplementandcoordinatetheKyoto

agreementswithotherforums,suchastheAsiaPacificAssociationforClean

DevelopmentandClimate,thesocalledCarbonPact,joinedbyChinain2008,

whichincludesalsotheUSandIndia.Althoughtherearerecognisedbodies,

suchastheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,thatcanprovidereal

guidance,itisalsoimportanttokeepinmindthatenergysecurityandclimate

changearenotjustrestrictedtospecialisedforums.Thereisagreatdealthatcan

bedoneincommercial,military,politicalandotherareas.Aclearexampleisthe

needforastandardisedclassificationofbiofuelswithintheWTO:currently,

biodieselisconsideredanindustrialinputandbioethanolachemicalproduct,so

onlybioethanolcanbeincludedinagriculturaltreaties.

Besides,inordertoreachagreementonstrongmultilateralinstruments,

suchastheKyotoProtocol,previoussuccessfulexperiencesmustbeexamined.

TheMontrealProtocol—aimedatpreservingtheozonelayer—isagoodexample

ofmultilateralcoordinatedaction.Thisinstrument—datingback20yearsand

nowincluding191nations—isparticularlyinterestingasitencompassesa

differentiatedapproach,givingdevelopingcountrieslongertoachievetargets.It

alsoincludesaspecialfundforhelpingthesecountriesto meetProtocol

objectives.Allmembersareobligedtomonitoradvancesthroughannualreports.

Incaseoffailure,thisfollowupsystemallowsfortheestablishmentofspecial

planstogetbackontrack.

8.犜狅狑犪狉犱狊犖犲狑犠狅狉犾犱犚犲犵狌犾犪狋狅狉狔犕犲犮犺犪狀犻狊犿狊

Caringfortheplanetrequiresnewandrepresentativemultilateralbodies.

Despitetheessentialroleofmanyexistinginstances,manyofthem are

constructed on the basis oftwentiethcentury notions or have limited

386   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

representation,suchastheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),whichincludes

onlyOECDmembers,andtheWorldEnergyCouncil,onlysevenofwhose93

memberscomefromtheLACregion.

Inthiscontext,theInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA),

foundedinJanuary2009,isagoodexampleofamodernmechanismincluding

bothindustrialisedanddevelopingcountries.IRENAsvisionisfor“aworld

wheremodernandeffectiverenewableenergyisaccessibleinallcountriesand

becomesoneofthemajorenergysources”.Infact,148countriesandtheEU

havesignedthestatuteoftheAgency,17fromtheLACregion.However,

importantcountries,suchasBrazilandChina,havenotyetsignedtheTreaty(www.irena.org).

IRENAwillincreasethecontributionofallformsofrenewableenergyto

environmentalandclimateprotection,economicgrowthandsocialcohesion,

includingpovertyalleviationandintergenerationalequity.Ittakesintoaccount

domesticprioritiesandalsoaimsatimplementingenergyefficiencymeasures.

ThisiswhattheLACregionisaskingfor,asbothobjectivescanhelptostemits

vulnerability.

Finally,thealleviationofglobalwarmingandenergysecurityareamatter

ofintergenerationaljustice.Sincethedaysofplentifulandeasyenergyseemto

beover,theinternationalcommunityshouldfindabalanced,mutuallyrespectful

andinnovativewayofsecuringenergysupplyandpreservingtheenvironment.

Thus,aprudentChina,EUandLACstrategicpartnershipforthefutureshould

bebasedupontheseprinciplesandpriorities,notonlytobuildabetterworld,

buttomaintainaworldtolivein.

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CEPAL/ECLACandLuizHortaNogueira(2005),犘犲狉狊狆犲犮狋犻狏犪狊犱犲狊狅狊狋犲狀犻犫犻犾犻犱犪犱犲狀犲狉犵é狋犻犮犪犲狀犾狅狊

狆犪í狊犲狊犱犲犾犪犆狅犿狌狀犻犱犪犱犃狀犱犻狀犪,SerieRecursosNaturaleseInfraestructura,83,April,

Santiago:CEPAL.

CEPAL/ECLAC(2007),犘狉狅犱狌犮犮犻ó狀犱犲犫犻狅犿犪狊犪狆犪狉犪犫犻狅犮狅犿犫狌狊狋犻犫犾犲狊犾í狇狌犻犱狅狊:犲犾狆狅狋犲狀犮犻犪犾

犱犲犃犿é狉犻犮犪犔犪狋犻狀犪狔犲犾犆犪狉犻犫犲,SerieDesarrolloProductivo,181,Santiago:Unidadde

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犜犺犲犆狅狀狋狉犻犫狌狋犻狅狀狅犳犅犻狅犳狌犲犾狊狋狅狋犺犲犛狌狊狋犪犻狀犪犫犻犾犻狋狔狅犳犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犻狀犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪

犪狀犱狋犺犲犆犪狉犻犫犫犲犪狀:犈犾犲犿犲狀狋狊犳狅狉犉狅狉犿狌犾犪狋犻狀犵犘狌犫犾犻犮犘狅犾犻犮狔,CEPAL/ECLACGTZ

ProjectDocuments,December.

CEPAL/ECLACandJoseluisSamaniego(2009),犆犪犿犫犻狅犮犾犻犿狋犻犮狅狔犱犲狊犪狉狉狅犾犾狅犲狀犃犿é狉犻犮犪

犔犪狋犻狀犪狔犲犾犆犪狉犻犫犲:犝狀犪狉犲狊犲犪,February,Santiago:CEPAL.

CEPAL/ECLAC(2010),犕犻犾犾犲狀狀犻狌犿犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犌狅犪犾狊:犃犱狏犪狀犮犲狊犻狀犈狀狏犻狉狅狀犿犲狀狋犪犾犾狔

EnergySecurityandClimateChangeinRelationsbetweentheEU,Chinaand

LatinAmerica:MajorChallengesandAreasforInternationalCooperation387  

犛狌狊狋犪犻狀犪犫犾犲犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犻狀犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪犪狀犱狋犺犲犆犪狉犻犫犫犲犪狀,Santiago:CEPAL.

ChineseGovernment(2008),犆犺犻狀犪狊犘狅犾犻犮狔犘犪狆犲狉狅狀犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪犪狀犱狋犺犲犆犪狉犻犫犫犲犪狀,5

November,online:http://english.gov.cn/.

ChineseMinistryofCommerce(2008),犆犺犻狀犪犎犪狊犪犛狋犲犪犱犻犾狔犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犻狀犵犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犺犻狆狑犻狋犺

狋犺犲犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀犪狀犱犗犮犲犪狀犻犪狀犃狉犲犪犻狀狋犺犲30犢犲犪狉狊狅犳犚犲犳狅狉犿犪狀犱犗狆犲狀犻狀犵犝狆,25

December,online:http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/.

Cruz,Germn(2008),犈狀犲狉犵狔犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔,IADBPresentationattheSummitImplementation

ReviewGroup(SIRG)IADB/OAS,SixthRegularMeetingof2008,ElSalvador/Central

America.

EuropeanCommission (2006),犃狀犈犝 犛狋狉犪狋犲犵狔犳狅狉犅犻狅犳狌犲犾狊,Communicationfromthe

Commission,CommissionoftheEuropeanCommunities,COM(2006)34final,8February,

Brussels.

Fritz,Thomas(2008),犃犵狉狅犲狀犲狉犵í犪犲狀犃犿é狉犻犮犪犔犪狋犻狀犪.犝狀犲狊狋狌犱犻狅犱犲犮犪狊狅狊犱犲犮狌犪狋狉狅

狆犪í狊犲狊:犅狉犪狊犻犾,犃狉犵犲狀狋犻狀犪,犘犪狉犪犵狌犪狔狔犆狅犾狅犿犫犻犪,BrotfürdieWelt—FDCL,May,

Berlin.

Globaldata,犌犾狅犫犪犾犅犻狅犱犻犲狊犲犾犕犪狉犽犲狋犃狀犪犾狔狊犻狊犪狀犱犉狅狉犲犮犪狊狋狊狋狅2020,online:http://www.

globaldata.com/reportstore.

IADB (2009),犃 犅犾狌犲 犘狉犻狀狋犳狅狉 犌狉犲犲狀 犈狀犲狉犵狔犻狀狋犺犲 犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狊,InterAmerican

DevelopmentBank.

IICA(2010),犃狋犾犪狊犱犲犾犪犪犵狉狅犲狀犲狉犵í犪狔犾狅狊犫犻狅犮狅犿犫狌狊狋犻犫犾犲狊犲狀犾犪狊犃犿é狉犻犮犪狊:犐犐犅犻狅犱犻犲狊犲犾,

SanJose:InstitutoInteramericanodeCooperaciónparalaAgricultura.

MERCOSUR/CMC(2007),犘狅犾í狋犻犮犪犱犲狆狉狅犿狅犮犻ó狀狔犮狅狅狆犲狉犪犮犻ó狀犲狀狆狉狅犱狌犮犮犻ó狀狔犮狅狀狊狌犿狅

狊狅狊狋犲狀犻犫犾犲狊犲狀犲犾犕犈犚犆犗犛犝犚,26December.

OLADE (2008),犈狀犲狉犵狔 犛狋犪狋犻狊狋犻犮狊 犚犲狆狅狉狋2007,Quito:Latin American Energy

Organization.

SGCAN(2008),犈犾犮犪犿犫犻狅犮犾犻犿狋犻犮狅狀狅狋犻犲狀犲犳狉狅狀狋犲狉犪狊.犐犿狆犪犮狋狅犱犲犾犮犪犿犫犻狅犮犾犻犿狋犻犮狅犲狀犾犪

犆狅犿狌狀犻犱犪犱犃狀犱犻狀犪,GeneralSecretariatoftheAndeanCommunity,May.

SELA(2010),犈狏狅犾狌犮犻ó狀狉犲犮犻犲狀狋犲犱犲犾犪狊狉犲犾犪犮犻狅狀犲狊犲犮狅狀ó犿犻犮犪狊犲狀狋狉犲犾犪犚犲狆ú犫犾犻犮犪犘狅狆狌犾犪狉

犆犺犻狀犪狔犃犿é狉犻犮犪犔犪狋犻狀犪狔犲犾犆犪狉犻犫犲.犕犲犮犪狀犻狊犿狅狊犻狀狊狋犻狋狌犮犻狅狀犪犾犲狊狔犱犲犮狅狅狆犲狉犪犮犻ó狀狆犪狉犪狊狌

犳狅狉狋犪犾犲犮犻犿犻犲狀狋狅,LatinAmericanandCaribbeanEconomicSystem,SELA,October.

Sohr,Raúl(2009),犆犺犪狅狆犲狋狉ó犾犲狅.犈犾犿狌狀犱狅狔犾犪狊犲狀犲狉犵í犪狊犱犲犾犳狌狋狌狉狅,Ed.Debate,Chile.

UNIPCCUnitedNations,IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(2007),犐犘犆犆

犉狅狌狉狋犺犃狊狊犲狊狊犿犲狀狋犚犲狆狅狉狋(犃犚4):犆犾犻犿犪狋犲犆犺犪狀犵犲2007,犛狔狀狋犺犲狊犻狊犚犲狆狅狉狋,November.

WorldBank/JoséMolinas,RicardoPaesdeBarros,JaimeSaavedraandMarceloGiugale

(2010),犇狅狅狌狉犆犺犻犾犱狉犲狀犺犪狏犲犪犆犺犪狀犮犲?犜犺犲2010犎狌犿犪狀犗狆狆狅狉狋狌狀犻狋狔犚犲狆狅狉狋犳狅狉

犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀犪狀犱狋犺犲犆犪狉犻犫犫犲犪狀.

WWC/FLACSO Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and Facultad

LatinoamericanadeCienciasSociales(2008),犈狀犲狉犵狔犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犻狀犛狅狌狋犺犃犿犲狉犻犮犪:

犆狅狀犳犾犻犮狋犪狀犱犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀,Washington:WWIC,LatinAmericanProgram.

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犜狉犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犪狀犱犛犮狅狆犲

犳狅狉犕狌犾狋犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犻狊犿

! 391  

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉13

犃犖犲狑犔狅狅犽犪狋狋犺犲犜狉犻犪狀犵狌犾犪狋犻狅狀犫犲狋狑犲犲狀狋犺犲犈犝,

犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪

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1.犐狀狋狉狅犱狌犮狋犻狅狀

AccordingtoanEUdocument,inaworldfilledwithnewthreatsand

opportunities,Europe,asanactorontheworldstage,needstoconsolidate

relationswithitsclosestpartnersaroundtheworld,andoneofthemisLatin

America.ForEurope,LatinAmericaisastrategicpartner,whichsharesa

commonhistoryandculture.Fewregionsintheworldoffersomanyreasonsto

buildagenuineallianceasEuropeandLatinAmerica(EuropeanCommission

2006).

ForChina,“LatinAmericanandCaribbeancountriesareanimportantpart

ofthedevelopingworldandamajorforceintheinternationalarena.Undernew

circumstances,thedevelopmentofrelationsbetweenChinaandLatinAmerican

andCaribbeancountriesisrepletewithnewopportunities”(ChineseGovernment

2008).ThatexplainswhyChinasrelationswithLatinAmericahavebeen

developingveryrapidlyoverthepastfewyears.

UnliketheUnitedStates,whichhasbeenuneasyaboutChinasgrowing

presenceintheWesternHemisphereinrecentyears,Europe,particularlySpain,

wishestoofferChinaahelpinghandtofurtherdevelopitsrelationswithLatin

America.Thischapterreviewsthetwosetsofbilateralrelationships:between

theEUandLatinAmerica,andbetweenChinaandLatinAmerica.Italso

comparesthetwosetsofrelationships.Finally,ittriestodeterminewhetherand

howtheEU(andSpain)canhelpChinainthisregard.

2.犈犝犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊

TheUnitedStatesestablishedthesocalled MonroeDoctrinein1823,

392   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

warningothercountries,particularlytheEuropeanpowers,torefrainfrom

expandingtheirinfluenceintheWesternHemisphere.Thedoctrineassertedthat

theAmericancontinents“arehenceforthnottobeconsideredassubjectfor

futurecolonizationbyanyEuropeanpower”(Smith1996:20).Butinfact,the

USwasnotpowerfulenoughinthenineteenthcenturytoenforcethedoctrine.

Forinstance,FrancesetuptheempireofMaximilianinMexicofrom1864to

1867.France even intended to name the continent of Latin America

“Francoamerica”.GreatBritaindidnottakemuchnoticeofthedoctrine.It

continuedtoprovidemuchofthecapitalandtechnologyforLatinAmericainthe

nineteenthcentury.Britishfirmsbuiltrailwaysandtelegraphandtelephone

systems,investedinminingandestablishedmanufacturingplantsinsomeLatin

Americancountries(Hillman1997:158).

AftertheSecond World War,Europewasoccupiedwithitsowneconomic

reconstructionandintegration.Consequently,itfailedtoattachmuchimportanceand

urgencytothedevelopmentofitsrelationswithLatinAmerica.

Thisbenignneglectstartedtodisappearinthe1970s.InFebruary1975,the

EuropeanCommunity(EC)andsomeAfrican,CaribbeanandPacific(ACP)countries

signedtheFirstLoméConvention,whichcameintoforceinApril1976,andwas

designedtoprovideanewframeworkofcooperationbetweenthethenEuropean

Community(EC)anddevelopingACPcountries,inparticularformerBritish,Dutch,

BelgianandFrenchcolonies.TheECalsoconcludedafewnonpreferential,shortterm

tradeagreementswithArgentina,Brazil,MexicoandUruguay(Black1991:266).

However,economictiesbetweenEuropeandLatinAmericadidnotdevelop

smoothly.TheCommonAgriculturalPolicyadoptedbytheECmadeithardfor

LatinAmericasagriculturalproductstoenterEurope.Thiscouldexplainwhy

ArgentinaturnedtotheSoviet Unionasa majorbuyerofits wheat.

Furthermore,theentryintotheECofPortugalandSpainin1986didnotrealise

thehopesLatinAmericahadplacedinit.

TheFalklands(Malvinas)WarbetweenArgentinaandGreatBritainin1982

putpressureonrelationsbetweenEuropeandLatinAmerica.TheECstood

alongsideGreatBritainandevenimposedeconomicsanctionsonArgentina.Most

LatinAmericancountriessympathisedwithArgentina.

Inthe1980s,conflictsinCentralAmericaprovidedEuropeandLatin

Americawitharareopportunitytomoveclosertogether.CentralAmericascivil

warswereoftenintheinternationalheadlines.AlongwiththeUnitedNations

andtheOrganizationofAmericanStates,theECmadearemarkablecontribution

tothepeaceprocessthere.Forinstance,itstronglysupportedtheeffortsmade

bytheContadoracountries.In1984,theSanJosédialoguebetweentheECand

ANewLookattheTriangulationbetweentheEU,ChinaandLatinAmerica 393  

theCentralAmericancountrieswaslaunched.Itsobjectivewastoseeksolutions

tothearmedconflictsbymeansofnegotiations.In1985,theEUCentral

AmericanCooperationAgreementwassigned.

Enteringthe1990s,LatinAmericastartedtoundergoimportantpolitical,

economicandsocialreformsandtransformations.Theregionsforeignpolicy

alsomadeprogressbypursuingcloserrelationsnotonlywiththeUS,butalso

withotherregionsoftheworld.TheEUacknowledgedthesepolicychangesand

seizedtheseopportunitiestopromoteitsrelationswithLatinAmerica.Spain

participatedactivelyintheregionsprivatisationcampaign.

In1995,theEUissuedacommunicationentitled“EuropeanUnion—Latin

America:ThePresentSituationandProspectsforCloserPartnership:1996

2000”,whichexpresseditsinterestinstrengtheningthepartnershipbetweenthe

twosides.Thedocumentacknowledgedthechangesthathadtakenplaceinboth

regionsandatworldlevelduringthepastdecadeandhighlightedtheshared

interestinfacingglobalandregionalchallenges.Italsostressedtheneedfor

differentiatedapproachestoLatinAmericainaccordancewithspecificnational

andsubregionalcircumstances.

ThemostnotabledevelopmentinbilateralrelationsbetweenEuropeand

LatinAmericawasthefirstEULatinAmericaSummitinRiodeJaneiro,Brazil,

inJune1999.Theobjectiveofthesummitwastofosterpolitical,economicand

culturalunderstandingbetweenthetworegionsinordertodevelopastrategic

partnership.Inthepoliticalfield,itwasagreedthateffortswouldbemadeto

reinforceinstitutionaldialoguebetweenthetworegions,preservedemocracy,

promoteandprotecthumanrightsandfundamentalfreedomsandworktogether

toaddressthreatstointernationalpeaceandsecurity.Intheeconomicfield,

leadersfrombothsidesoftheAtlanticdeclaredthattheyweredeterminedto

strengthenthemultilateraltradesystemandopenregionalismandtointensify

economicrelationsbetweenthetworegions.Theiraimsincludedpromotingthe

liberalisationoftradeasameansofincreasingprosperityandcombatingthe

destabilisingeffectsofvolatilefinancialflows,devotingparticularattention,

supportandincentivestoproductiveinvestmentinsmallereconomies.Inthe

cultural,educational,scientific,technological,socialandhumanfields,thetwo

sidesalsoexpressedaninterestinpromotingtherehabilitationandpreservation

oftheenormousculturalheritageinbothregions,facilitatinguniversalaccessto

educationandencouragingculturaldiversity(EULatinAmericaSummit1999).

Atthissummit,itwasannouncedthattheEUandLatinAmericahad

agreedtoestablishastrategicpartnership.Thispartnershipwastobebuiltona

commonculturalinheritance,aswellassharedvalues,andencompassedclose

394   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

cooperationinthefieldsofpolitics,economics,cultureandscienceand

technology.Thebiregionalpartnershiphasbeenfurtherdevelopedandrefinedat

thelaterEULatinAmericasummits.

Thelatestsummit,thesixth,tookplaceon18May2010,inMadrid,

Spain,withthetheme “Towardsanew phaseofbiregionalassociation:

innovationandtechnologyforsustainabledevelopmentandsocialinclusion”.In

hisopeningspeech,SpanishPrimeMinisterJoseLuisRodriguezZapaterosaid

thatprogressinrelationsbetweenbothcontinentsoverthepastdecadehave

madethem“globalpartnersfacingglobalchallenges”.

On30September2009,theEUissuedapressreleaseentitled“EULatin

America:10YearsofStrategicPartnership”,whichofferedasatisfactory

reviewofthebilateralrelationship.Itsaid,“Overthepastdecade,relations

betweentheEUandLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanhavebeenconsiderably

strengthened withthesupportandfirm commitmentparticularlyofthe

EuropeanCommission.”TheEUwassatisfiedtoseethat,eversincethefirst

SummitinRiodeJaneiroin1999,thetworegionshavecooperatedonajoint

agendainanumberofbiregional,bilateral,multilateralandsectorspecific

forumsonissuessuchasresearch,scienceandtechnologyandsocialcohesion.

Overthepasttenyears,theEuropeanCommissionhasfinancedmorethan450

projectsandprogrammes,amountingto morethan EUR 3 billion (EU

2009a).

Apartfrompoliticaltalks,theEUandLatinAmericahavealsoachieved

winwin outcomes on some important economic issues. For instance,

ambassadorsfromtheEUandLatinAmericancountriesmeetingattheWorld

TradeOrganization(WTO)inGenevaon15December2009agreedtoenda15

yeardisputeoverEUbananaimports.Aspartofthedeal,theEUwillcutits

importtariffonbananasfromthecurrentrateofEUR176pertonnetoEUR114

pertonnein2017,attheearliest;andmakethebiggestcutfirst—theEUwill

firstcutitstariffbyEUR28pertonnetoEUR148pertonne,onceallparties

signthedeal.Inreturn,LatinAmericancountrieswillnotdemandfurthercuts,

anddropcasesagainsttheEUattheWTO,someofwhichdatebackasfaras

1993(EU2009b).

Commentingontheagreement,European TradeCommissionerBenita

FerreroWaldnersaid:“todayisaverygooddayforbananaproducersworldwide

andforconsumers,aswefinallyseethe‘longesttradedisputeinhistory

solved.Afteryearsoftediousnegotiationsthedealreachedwillprovidean

importantpushforprogressintheDohaRoundtalksandformultilateraltrading

systemsingeneral.”(EU2009b)

ANewLookattheTriangulationbetweentheEU,ChinaandLatinAmerica 395  

3.犆犺犻狀犪犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊

NomatterwhofirstlandedintheAmericas,provencontactsbetweenChina

andLatinAmericacanbedatedbacktothe1570s,whenSinoLatinAmerican

tradestartedtoflourishacrossthePacific.1ViaManila,Chinaexportedsilk,

porcelainandcottonyarntoMexicoandPeru,inexchangeforsilvercoinsand

otheritems.Inthemiddleofthenineteenthcentury,peasantsfromsouthern

ChinawenttoSouthAmericaandtheCaribbeanas“contractlabourers”working

inminesandplantations.

AfterthePeoplesRepublicofChinawasfoundedin1949,afewLatin

Americancountriessoughtdiplomaticrelations.DuetoUSopposition,however,

theireffortsdidnotmaterialise.

ThevictoryoftheCubanRevolutionin1959attractedimmediatemoraland

politicalsupportfromChina.CubawasthefirstLatinAmericancountryto

recognisethenewChina.ChinawasthereforereadytosupportCubainreturn.

InSeptember1960,ChinesePremierZhouEnlaitoldFidelCastro:“ifnecessary,

ChinawillfurnishallnecessaryassistancetotheCubanpeopleintheirfightfor

freedom.”(Zhang1995:91).

On15December1970,ChilebecamethefirstSouthAmericancountryto

establishdiplomatictieswithChina.AfterUSPresidentNixonmadehishistoric

visittoBeijingin1972,manyLatinAmericancountriesstartedtochangetheir

attitudestowardsChinaandevenexpressedtheirinterestindevelopingrelations

withit.The1970switnessedtheestablishmentofdiplomaticrelationsbetween

ChinaandmorethantenLatinAmericancountries.

UndertheleadershipofDengXiaoping,Chinastartedtoimplementreform

andopendoorpoliciesin1978.TheimageofChinainLatinAmericachanged

veryquickly.Inthe1980sand1990s,anothertenLatinAmericancountries

establisheddiplomaticrelationswithChina.Cooperationandcontactsinthe

economic,politicalandculturalareasproceededsteadily.

InNovember2004,ChinesePresidentHuJintaovisitedLatinAmerica,

followedbyVicePresidentZengQinghonginearly2005,onlytwomonthslater.

Thiskindoffrequentvisithappenedagainduring2008and2009.PresidentHu

JintaowenttoLatinAmericainNovember2008andVicePresidentXiJinping

followedinearly2009.Incontemporaryinternationalrelations,noothercountry

haseversenttopleaderstoLatinAmericawithsuchahighfrequency.

Between2001and2008,bilateraltradebetweenChinaandLatinAmerica

increasedalmosttenfold.In November2005,Chinasignedafreetrade

agreement(FTA)withChile.Asamatteroffact,thefirstcountrywithwhich

396   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

ChinareachedanFTAwasChile.InNovember2008,ChinaandPeruconcluded

theirFTAnegotiations.Inearly2009,ChinaandCostaRicaofficiallystarted

theirfirstFTAtalks.

After15 yearsofefforts,ChinasentranceintotheInterAmerican

DevelopmentBank(IDB)wasapprovedbytheothermembercountriesina

votingprocesswhichendedon15October2008.Inearly2009,Chinaformally

joinedtheIDB,thusbecomingtheBanks48thmembernation,contributing

USD350milliontovariousprogrammes.Chinapurchased184shares,or0.004

percentoftheIDBsordinarycapital,whichbecameavailableafterthebreakup

ofYugoslavia.

ChinaandBraziljointlylaunchedthreeremotesensingsatellitesin1999,

2003and2007,respectively.Thiscooperationhasbeenrecognisedasan

outstandingexampleofSouthSouthcooperationinthehightechfield.In

October2008,ChinasuccessfullysentaVenezuelantelecommunicationsatellite

intospace.The satellite,produced by Chinas Aerospace Science and

TechnologyCorporationwithadesignedlongevityof15years,isVenezuelas

firsttelecomsatelliteandisusedinbroadcasting,teleeducationandmedical

services.

InOctober2004,a95memberunitofofficersfromChinasriotpoliceforce

wassenttoHaititojointheUnitedNationspeacekeepingoperationthere.This

isthefirsttimeChinahasincludedmembersofitsriotpoliceforceinoverseas

peacekeepingduties.Itstaskwastosupporttheinternationalpeacekeeping

presenceandlocalpolicetoenforcelaws,dealwith masspublicsecurity

emergencies,serveasguardsonimportantpublicoccasionsandorganiseand

trainalocalriotpolice.Thistaskwasaccomplishedsuccessfully.InJanuary

2005,theChinesepeacekeeperswereawardedaUNpeacemedalfortheir

outstandingperformanceinthecrisistorncountry.

Therearealsonongovernmentalorpeopletopeoplecontactsandexchanges

betweenChinaandLatinAmerica.Morethanonehundredprovincesandcities

havebeentwinned.

InNovember2008,ChinapublishedapolicypaperonLatin America,

outlining35areasofcooperation.ItexpressedforthefirsttimetheChinese

Governmentsdesireto“viewitsrelationswithLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

instrategicterms”.ItalsoreiteratedtheChineseGovernmentscommitmentto

theoneChinapolicyanddeclaresitthepoliticalbasisfortheestablishmentand

developmentofrelationsbetweenChinaandLatinAmericanandCaribbean

countriesandregionalorganisations.2

ANewLookattheTriangulationbetweentheEU,ChinaandLatinAmerica 397  

4.犆狅犿狆犪狉犻狀犵狋犺犲犜狑狅犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犺犻狆狊

AcomparisonofrelationsbetweentheEUandLatinAmericaandbetween

ChinaandLatinAmericaleadstothefollowingconclusions:

(1)Inhistorical,politicalandculturalterms,Europehascloserrelations

andaffinitieswithLatinAmericathanChinadoes.

(2)EuropedevelopeditsrelationswithLatinAmericamuchearlierthan

Chinadid.Asamatteroffact,ChinastartedtomovetowardsLatinAmerica

onlyafewyearsago.TheChinaLatinAmericarelationshipisstillinitsinitial

stages,whereastheEULatinAmericarelationshipismuchmoremature.

(3)EuropesrelationswithLatinAmericaaremoreinstitutionalisedthan

Chinas.ApartfromtheEULatinAmericasummit,thereistheIberoAmerican

summitandotherdialoguemechanisms.ThechancesofconveningaChinaLatin

Americansummitareveryslim.Moreover,theEUhaspublishedmorepolicy

documentsonLatinAmericathanChina.

(4)ChinaLatinAmericarelationsareovershadowedbytheUSfactor.The

USissomewhatconcernedbythepresenceofChinainitsbackyard.US

CongressmanDanBurtonsaid:“IbelieveChinasrisingeconomic,politicaland

militaryinfluenceintheWesternHemisphereposesseriouschallengestothe

UnitedStatesintheyearsahead...Ibelieveweshouldbecautiousandviewthe

riseofChinesepowerassomethingtobecounterbalancedorcontained,and

perhapsgosofarastoconsiderChinasactionsinLatin Americaasthe

movementofahegemonicpowerintoourHemisphere.”(Burton2005)Europe

LatinAmericanrelationsarenotamajorissuefortheUS.

(5)EuropeseconomictieswithLatin Americaaremuchcloserthan

Chinas.In2008,EULatinAmericantradewasworthEUR189billion,while

ChineseLatinAmericantradewasworthUSD145billion,althoughithasbeen

growingrapidlyoverthepastfewyears.In2007,thetotalstockofEU

investmentinLatinAmericastoodatEUR228billion,whileforChinaitwas

onlyUSD25billion(ChineseMinistryofCommerce2010).

(6)EuropehasestablishedastrategicpartnershipwithLatinAmerica,

whereasChinahassetupsuchpartnershipswithonlyafewLatinAmerican

countries:Brazil(1993),Mexico (2003),Argentina (2004)andPeru

(2010).    (7)ThepoliticaldimensionoftheEULatinAmericanrelationshipdiffers

fromthatbetweenChinaandLatinAmerica.ItseemsthatEuropeismuchmore

concernedaboutLatinAmericasdemocracy,humanrights,ruleoflawandso

on,whileChinaemphasisespoliticalconsensusonsuchissuesasThirdWorld

398   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

unity,amultipolarworldorder,oppositiontohegemonismandpowerpolitics

andsoon.

(8)Duetohistoricalandculturalreasons,mutualunderstandingbetween

EuropeandLatinAmericaismuchdeeperthanthatbetweenChinaandLatin

America.ChinadoesnotknowmuchaboutLatinAmericaandviceversa.

(9)BothEuropeandChinaseeLatinAmericaasanimportantsourceof

naturalresourcesandamarketof560millionconsumers.AnimportantEU

documentstatesthat“theregionhasconsiderablenaturalresources,especially

miningandenergyresources,aswellasexceptionalenvironmentalwealth,

notablytheAmazonianforestwithitshugebiologicaldiversity”(European

Commission2002).InitspolicypaperonLatinAmerica,Chinaalsoexpressed

aninterestinopeninguptheregionsresources.

(10)BothEuropeandChinaattachimportancetothesocialproblemsin

LatinAmerica.ChinaspolicypaperonLatinAmericadeclared:“TheChinese

GovernmentwillstrengthenexchangesandcooperationwithLatinAmericanand

Caribbeancountriesinreducingpovertyandnarrowingthegapbetweentherich

andthepoor,andwillencouragepovertyalleviationinstitutionsonbothsidesto

establishbroadcooperativerelationstoshareinformationandconductjoint

research”(ChineseGovernment2008).ForEurope,promotingsocialcohesion—

thatis,thefightagainstpoverty,inequalityandexclusion—isoneoftheEUs

strategicpolicyobjectives.Moreover,thenotionofsocialcohesionhasbeen

acceptedbytheUNEconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

(ECLAC)asaguidingprinciplefortheregionssocialdevelopmentstrategy(ECLAC2007).

5.犆犪狀狋犺犲犈犝/犛狆犪犻狀犺犲犾狆犆犺犻狀犪狋狅犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犻狋狊犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊狑犻狋犺犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪?

TheUSisworriedaboutthecloserrelationsbetweenChinaandLatin

America.Europe,ontheotherhand,isnotworriedatall.Spainevenwishesto

offerChinaahelpinghandtopromoteitsrelationswithLatinAmerica.

TriangulationbetweenSpain,LatinAmericaandAsiaPacificisoneofthe

initiativesoftheSpanishgovernmentsAsiaPacificFrameworkPlan20002002

(Bustelo2002).InJuly2005,visitingSpanishPrimeMinisterZapaterosaidto

hisChinesehostthatSpainwouldbereadytoserveasa“bridge”forChinato

developitsrelationswithLatinAmerica.WhenPresidentHuJintaovisitedSpain

inNovember2005,ChinaandSpainissuedajointcommuniquédeclaringthat

bothsides had expressed a willingnesstocooperatearoundthe globe,

particularlyinLatinAmerica.

Undoubtedly,Spainisinagoodpositiontoplaytheroleofa“bridge”for

ANewLookattheTriangulationbetweentheEU,ChinaandLatinAmerica 399  

Chinaand Latin America.Itsadvantagesinclude historicalconnections,

language,culturalsimilaritiesandastrongeconomicpresenceinLatinAmerica.

BeforeChinasentitstradedelegationtoEuropeattheendofFebruary

2009,theSpanishAmbassadortoBeijing,CarlosBlascoVilla,toldtheChinese

newspaper21狊狋犆犲狀狋狌狉狔犅狌狊犻狀犲狊狊犎犲狉犪犾犱thatSpainwouldbehappytoseeChina

investinLatinAmerica.WhenhewasaskedwhethertheinterestsofChinaand

SpainwerebeginningtoconflictsinceChinasrelationswithLatinAmericahad

startedtobecomecloser,Blascosaid:“Justtheopposite.Ithinkcloserrelations

betweenChinaandLatinAmericawouldcontributetothecooperationbetween

themandencouragefurtherinvestmentinLatinAmerica.”Theambassadoralso

saidthat“SpainwouldproposethatLatinAmericanotrelyontheUSsomuch,

norontheEU”.Heevenofferedoneexampleoftriangularcooperation:

“HuaweiandZhongxinhavesoldequipmenttoSpanishcompanieswhichusethe

ChineseproductstobuildtelecomtowersinLatinAmerica”(Yuan2009).The

questionnowiswhetherandhowtheEU/SpaincanhelpChinatodevelopits

relationswithLatinAmerica.

Toanswerthisquestion,wemusttrytounderstandwhatChinawantstodo

inand/orwithLatinAmerica.AccordingtoChinaspolicypaperonLatin

Americathereare35areasofcooperation.Insomeareas,itislikelythatthe

EU/Spaincanhelp;inothers,itisunlikely.

犜犪犫犾犲1 犃狉犲犪狊狅犳犘狅狊狊犻犫犾犲犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犆犺犻狀犪犪狀犱

犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪犻狀狑犺犻犮犺狋犺犲犈犝/犛狆犪犻狀犆狅狌犾犱犘狉狅狏犻犱犲犃狊狊犻狊狋犪狀犮犲

Areasofcooperation Possibility Reason

Exchangesofhighlevelvisits Low

Thearrangementofsuchhighlevel

visitsinvolvesdiplomaticsecrecy

andotherissuesthatneednohelp

fromanythirdparty

Exchangesbetweenlegislatures Low

Chinahasnodifficultycontacting

legislative bodies in Latin

Americadirectly

Exchangesbetweenpoliticalparties Low

TheCommunistPartyofChinahas

itsownapproachtoestablishing

workingrelationswithpoliticalpar

tiesinforeigncountries

Consultationmechanisms Low

Thingswouldbecomemorecompli

catedifathirdpartywasinvolved

insuchbilateralmechanisms

400   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

Areasofcooperation Possibility Reason

Cooperationininternational

affairs,suchasUNreformsHigh

Internationalaffairshavebecome

moreandmoreglobalisedand

multilateraldialoguesand

consultationsareneeded,

particularlywhendeadlockoccurs

Localgovernmentexchanges High

Theseexchangesmainlyinclude

cooperationineconomicandother

areas,aswellasestablishingtwin

provincesortwincities.TheEU/

Spaincanofferexpertisein

thisregard

Trade High

TheEU/Spainhasawell

establishedmarketingnetwork,

whichisveryvaluableforChinese

businessmen,whodonotknow

muchaboutthemarket

conditionsthere

Investmentcooperation High

TheChinesegovernmenthas

designeda“goingglobal”

strategy,whichencouragesdirect

investmentsinLatinAmericaand

otherpartsoftheworld.The

EU/SpaincanhelpChinaby

findinginvestmentopportunities

orevenestablishingjoint

investmentfunds

Financialcooperation High

Chinesebankswanttoopenupthe

marketinLatinAmericaand

Spanishbankshaveastrong

presencethere

Agriculturalcooperation,suchas

technicaltrainingHigh

TheEU/Spainhasboth

sophisticatedtechnologyandmore

experienceinthisarea

Industrialcooperation High

EU/Spainhasbothsophisticated

technologyandmoreexperiencein

thisarea

ANewLookattheTriangulationbetweentheEU,ChinaandLatinAmerica 401  

Areasofcooperation Possibility Reason

Infrastructureconstruction High

ChinaandtheEU/Spaincan

cooperatetoinvestinLatin

Americaspoorinfrastructure

Resourcesandenergycooperation Medium

Therearemanyopportunitiesfor

cooperationinthisarea.Butboth

ChinaandtheEU/Spainwishto

exploitLatinAmericasresources

andenergy.Therefore,

competitionmightemergein

somecases

Customscooperation LowItinvolvesnationalsovereigntyand

legalmatters

Cooperationonqualityinspection Low

Itinvolvespoliciesonnontariff

barriersandsometimes

nationalsovereignty

Tourismcooperation High

SomanyChinesewishtovisit

LatinAmerica,butthetourist

industryinChinaislessdeveloped

thanthatoftheEU/Spain

Debtreductionandcancellation LowChinaasacreditorwouldmakeits

owndecisionsonthismatter

Economicandtechnicalassistance HighTheEU/Spainhasaccumulated

muchexperienceinthisarea

Multilateralcooperationin

multilateraltradeandfinancial

institutionsandregimes

High

Globalissuesareinvolvedinthis

area,andmultilateralcoordination

andconsultationisneeded

Chamberofcommercecooperation High

Cooperationwithathirdparty

mightfacilitateexchangesof

marketinformation

Culturalandsportsexchanges High

TheEU/Spainisverygoodat

promotingculturalandsports

exchangeswithLatinAmerica

Cooperationinscience,technology

andeducationHigh

TheEU/Spainhasadvantagesin

thisareaandhasaccumulated

muchexperienceofhowto

cooperatewithLatin

Americancountries

402   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

Areasofcooperation Possibility Reason

Cooperationinmedicaland

healthcareHigh

Collectiveactioncanachieve

betterresults

Consularcooperationand

personnelexchangesLow

Itofteninvolves

nationalsovereignty

Mediacooperation LowChinahasitsownapproachto

themedia

Peopletopeopleexchanges HighGettingathirdpartyinvolvedcan

facilitatemutualunderstanding

Cooperationin

environmentalprotectionHigh Thisissueneedsglobalaction

Cooperationincombating

climatechangeHigh

Thisissueinvolvesmultilateral

negotiationsandcoordination

Cooperationinhumanresources

andsocialsecurityHigh

TheEU/Spaincanofferits

expertise,experiencesandlessons

forChinaandLatinAmerica

Disasterreduction,disasterrelief

andhumanitarianassistanceHigh

Multilateralactioncanbehelpful

towardsthisend

Cooperationinpovertyalleviation HighCombatingpovertyalsoneeds

multilateralactions

Militaryexchangesandcooperation LowItinvolvesmilitarysecretsand

nationalsovereignty

Cooperationinjudicialand

policeaffairsLow Thisisasensitivearea

Nontraditionalsecurityissues Low

Someissuesrequireglobalaction,

butsomeinvolve

nationalsovereignty

  Inconclusion,theEU/Spainmightbeabletoactasa“bridge”forChinato

developitsrelationswithLatinAmericainsomeareas,butbynomeansall.

Generallyspeaking,itisintheeconomic,culturalandsocialareasthattheEU/

SpaincanbeparticularlyhelpfultoChina.

6.犆狅狀犮犾狌犱犻狀犵犚犲犿犪狉犽狊

Inaglobalperspective,theworldismovingincreasinglyinthedirectionof

multilateralism.Asaresult,ChinasrelationswithLatinAmericaareoften

ANewLookattheTriangulationbetweentheEU,ChinaandLatinAmerica 403  

influencedbytrilateralorevenmultilateralinteractions.WhileEuropetendsto

haveacriticalorsometimesevennegativeviewofChinaspresenceinAfrica,it

wishestoofferahelpinghandtostrengthenbilateralrelationsbetweenChina

andLatinAmerica.Thisisaverypositiveandconstructiveattitude,andthe

threepartiesneedtoworktogetherforbettertriangulation.

FromtheChinesestandpoint,whetherandhowtheEU/Spaincanhelp

ChinadevelopitsrelationswithLatinAmericadependsonthefutureprospectsof

ChinasrelationswithbothLatinAmericaandtheEU/Spain.Itiscertainthat,

ifChinasrelationswithLatinAmericadevelopfurther,theprospectsofthe

EU/Spainplayingtheroleofa“bridge”betweenChinaandLatinAmericawill

bebrighter.Duetohistoricalandculturalfactors,Europehasmaintainedclose

relationswithLatinAmerica.ChinasrelationswithLatinAmericahavebegun

todeveloponlyrecently.EuropecouldserveasamodelforChinainsome

respects.

UnliketheUnitedStates,whichviewsChinaspresenceinLatinAmericaas

athreattoits“backyard”,theEU/Spainwishestoplaytheroleofa“bridge”

thatcanhelpChinatodevelopitsrelationswithLatinAmerica.Thisbenign

intentioniswelcomeandconstructive.However,giventhedifferencesbetween

LatinAmericanrelationswithChinaandwithEurope,respectively,itsrole

shouldnotbeexaggerated.Insomeareas,a“bridge”wouldbeuseful,butin

otherareas—forexample,touchingonnationalsovereigntyandothersensitive

issues—itisunlikelyandmayevencreate“transactioncosts”.

Notes

1.Asearlyas1761,theFrenchsinologistDeGiognesproposedthattheNewWorldwas

discoverednotbyColumbus,butbytheChinese.Chinesescholarslaterfoundthat,as

earlyasinthefifthcentury,aChinesemonk(ormaster)namedHuiShen(慧深)arrived

inwhatiscalledMexicotoday,thencalledFusang(扶桑)inChinese.Britishauthor

GavinMenziessaidinhis1421牶犜犺犲犢犲犪狉犆犺犻狀犪犇犻狊犮狅狏犲狉犲犱犃犿犲狉犻犮犪 (2003)thatthe

ancientChinesesailor,ZhengHe(郑和),“discovered”theAmericas70yearsearlierthan

Columbus.

2.Twentythreecountries,including12inLatin America,stillmaintain “diplomatic

relations”withTaiwan.

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! 405  

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉14

犜狉犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊犫犲狋狑犲犲狀犆犺犻狀犪,狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱

犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪牶犔犻狋狋犾犲犈狓狆犲狉犻犲狀犮犲,犅狌狋犅犻犵犘狅狋犲狀狋犻犪犾

+#,- .)/0

1.犐狀狋狉狅犱狌犮狋犻狅狀

Inrecentyears,ourchallengeshavebecomeglobalandthedestiniesof

nationshavebecomedeeplyinterconnected.Nomatterwhereintheworldwe

live,wearetouchedbythesuccessesandfailuresoftodaysglobalorder.

Nevertheless,responsestoglobalproblemsremainverydifferent,notonlyasa

resultofcompetinginterests,butalso—andlargely—becauseculturaldifference

isthelensthroughwhichweseetheseglobalchallenges.Culturaldiversityisnot

necessarilyasourceofconflict.Crossculturalencountersoftenbringabout

creativechange.Iseemorechancesforissuebasedandflexiblecoalitionsamong

developingandemergingcountriesthanthesomewhatideologicalNorthSouth

confrontationsofthepast.Collaborationacrossbordersisgrowingprimarilyin

thearea ofbusinessand economicactivity.Collaborative networksfor

innovation,productionanddistributionareemergingasthesinglemostpowerful

shaperoftheglobaleconomy.

Trustisanessentialcurrencyofsocialcollaboration.Oursuccessin

addressingtheglobalchallengesofeconomicprosperity,politicalrelationsand

socialpeaceisafunctionofthedegreeoftrustthatnationsandculturesareable

tosustaininternationally.Dialoguecandemystify,beittherealimpactof

bioethanolproductioninBrazilontheenvironmentorfoodsecurityorthereal

impactoftheEuropeancommonagriculturalpolicyonglobaltrade.Dialogue

thusbuildsknowledgeoftheunfamiliar,andseeksoutareasofcommonground

Theviewsexpressedinthisarticlearethoseoftheauthorandshouldnotinanywaybeconsidered

toexpressanofficialpositionoftheCounciloftheEuropeanUnionoranyofitsofficers.

406   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

anchoredinavisionofacommonfuturegroundedinidealsofequalityand

respect.

Wehavelittleexperienceoftriangularcooperationand,attheprojectlevel,

whatwehaveisnotencouraging.However,thisisnoreasonnottoconsiderits

potential—quitethecontrary.Trilateralcooperation,notablyonglobalissues,

ispossiblewhenpartnershavetheweight,butalsothewillingnessandthe

meanstoacttogether.Weightneednottobeamatterofsheersize;itcanalso

haveamoraldimensionthatwinsothersover.Trilateralcooperationmakes

sensewhenothersregardthepromotionofissuesorvaluesbycoreactorsas

persuasiveor,usuallyatprojectlevel,whentrilateralcooperationmakesit

possibletoreducepoliticalorrealcoststhroughtheuseofthecomparative

advantagesofeachactor.

Suchcooperationcantakeplaceatvariouslevelsandwithvaryingscopeand

intensity:from exchangesofviews,dialogue,experiencesharingandbest

practicestosectoraldialogue,internationalcoordination,jointpromotionand,

finally,jointeffortsonnormsettingorcreatingagloballyrepresentative,active

andefficientinternationalinstitutionalarchitecturewithmorelegitimacy.The

venuesareUNforumsinNewYork,GenevaandVienna,butinternational

conferencesandmissionsarealsoimportant.

AsHenry Kissingerpointedout,the “veryunsettlednatureofthe

internationalsystemgeneratesauniqueopportunityforcreativediplomacy.The

alternativetoanewinternationalorderischaos”.Chinasroleiscrucial,asare

thoseofotherpartnersontheirwaytobecomingmajorpowers.Thepastdecade

hasseenadeclineinthepowerofnationstates,butwithoutbeingreplacedby

sufficientlyeffectiveglobalgovernance.Insomeareas,therecognitionof

“commonbutdifferentialresponsibilitiesandrespectivecapabilities”isinitselfa

promisingstartforconstructingcommoninterestsamongpartnerswithdifferent

potentials.Thereis clearinterestin the establishment of multilateral

developmentnorms,goals,proceduresandpoliciessuchasthe Millennium

DevelopmentGoals,theOECDsDevelopmentAssistanceCommittee(DAC)or

theParisAgendawhichincreasesbeneficiarycountries“ownership”andthe

harmonisationofdonorpolicies.Earlierdominanceby Westerncountriesin

framingthesediscussionshasbeenerodedandrisingnewpartnersareplayingan

activeroleinpolicies,trade,aidandinvestment.Thus,morefundsarenow

available,aswellasgreaterdiversityofaidsources.

2.犜狉犲狀犱狊犪狀犱犗狆狆狅狉狋狌狀犻狋犻犲狊犻狀犛狅狌狋犺犛狅狌狋犺犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀

China,LatinAmericaandtheEUalreadyhavesomeelaboratebilateraland

TrilateralRelationsbetweenChina,theEUandLatinAmerica:LittleExperience,ButBigPotential 407  

biregionalformsofcooperation,andtheyhaveproventheirinterestinshaping

theworld.Recently,political,economicandfinancialrelationsbetweenChina

andtheLatinAmericanCountries(LAC)havebeenconsiderablyreinforced.

Theoutreachofallthreebeyondtheirimmediateneighbourhoodandthe

advancesinSouthSouthrelationsandcooperation,beiteconomicorpolitical,

arepromisingbasesformoretrilateralcooperation.Valuableexperiencecan

comefromoutreachprogrammesoftheOECD/DAC,the WorldBankand

regionaldevelopmentbanks,orevenfromtheEUorcountryinitiatives,suchas

thoseoftheUKandGermany.Dialogueonprogrammeorientedapproachesin

thedonorcommunityshouldpreparetheterrainforconcretetrilateralprojects.

AccordingtotheUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment

(UNCTAD2008,2009),SouthSouthFDIhasreached12percentofglobal

FDI,andthecorrespondingfigurefortradeis20percent.AsUNCTAD

SecretaryGeneralSupachaiPanitchpakdipointedoutinhisspeechinearly

February2009totheExpertMeetingonInternationalCooperation,SouthSouth

Cooperation and Regional Integration: “SouthSouth cooperation holds

significantpotentialforincreasedtradeandinvestmentflows,therebysupporting

industrializationandstrengtheningtheservicessector.Inrecentyears,the

renewedinterestamongdevelopingcountriesinmutualcooperationhasledtoan

increasingnumberofbilateralandregionalagreementsamongthemintheareas

oftrade,investmentsandfinance,butalsohealth,educationandculture.”

Thistrendhasbeendrivenbythestronggrowthintradeflowsbetween

developingcountries.Since1995,SouthSouthtradehasgrownfasterthanany

othertradeflows,averaging13percentperyear,comparedtotheglobal

averagegrowthrateof9percent,and10percentfortradeamongdeveloped

countries.Theamountinvaluetermsisequallyimpressive.Forexample,

SouthSouthmerchandisetradein2007amountedtoUSD2.4trillion,or20per

centofworldtrade.The1990salsosaw atakeoffin FDIflowsfrom

transnationalcooperation(TNC)intheSouth,withtheshareofSouthSouth

FDIintotalflowsgrowingfrom5percentinthe1990sto12percentin2006.

But,astheSecretaryGeneralalsounderlined,SouthSouthisnotasimple

substituteforNorthSouth(UNCTAD2009).

SincethetraditionalNorthSouthcooperationiscomplementedbygreater

SouthSouthcooperation,thisopensspacefortrilateralcooperation.Thetrends

towardsamultipolarworldanddiversificationofrelationsaretwosidesofthe

samecoin.“Emerging”donorsarebynomeansnewintheaidbusiness:China,

theArabcountriesandtheEasternblochavebeenactiveoverthepast50years,

408   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

ashavevariousLatinAmerican(LA)partners,suchasBrazil,Mexico,Chile

andVenezuela.Theirlargenewcushionsofforeignreservesandtheirexpertise

helpmanypeople.

Theendofthebipolarworldcan,withsomeexceptions,leadtoless

ideologicalandmoreissuebasedinterests,whichcanbemore“negotiable”

(Phillips2008;Schmitzand Messner2008).Trilateralcooperationbetween

LatinAmericaandtheEUexistedinthe1980s,whenLatinAmericancountries

invitedtheEuropeanCommunitytocooperateinendingthecivilwarsinCentral

Americawhichwerefosterednotonlybyscandaloussocialinjusticebutalsoby

thetwosuperpowers,neitherofwhichcouldwithdraw withoutlosingface.

PreciselythefactthatneitherLatin AmericancountriesnortheEuropean

countriescouldbeseenasa militarythreatallowedthemtoreachpeace

agreementsandtorebuildthedisruptedsocieties.

Someremarksongeneralconditions,methodsandproceduresfortrilateral

cooperationontheEU side.Asapreliminaryobservation,itshouldbe

mentionedthatintheEU,atthetechnicallevel,thereisanunofficialdistinction

betweentrilateralandtriangularcooperation.“Trilateral”meansjointfunding,

forexample,bytheEUandMexico,ofaprojectinCentralAmerica.This

happensrarely.“Triangular”meansthattheEUusesandfunds,forexample,

Chileanwaterexpertsor—andwhynotinthefuture—Cubanhealthexpertsina

projectin,forexample,Zimbabwe,totakeadvantageoftheparticularaccess,

expertiseandreducedcostsofnonEUexperts.Thisshouldalsohelptopromote

endogenousregionalsolutions.

3.犉犻犲犾犱狊狅犳犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀

3.1 CooperationonGlobalInstitutionalArchitecture,MultilateralNorms,

Actions,ProceduresandObjectives

  Ratherthanaworldinwhichoneortwosuperpowerstakeunilateraldecisions,

theEU,ChinaandLatinAmericaprefer,inmyview,an“interpolar”system(Grevi

2009)wherestrongplayerscooperateandpossiblyreachdecisionswiththehighestand

broadestpossibleinternationallegitimacytoaddressglobalissuesandchallenges,orto

preventandtacklecrises.Asglobalisationshrinksdistancesandissuesbecome

increasinglyinterconnected,thecomparativeadvantageofaneffectiveUNsystem

becomesmoreevident.Interpolarityislikelytobealessconflictualschemethan

thebipolarpast,notleastduetoeconomicinterdependence,butittakespolitical

willto support strong, more representative and efficientinternational

institutions,capableof“globalgovernance”(GrevianddeVasconcelos2009;

TrilateralRelationsbetweenChina,theEUandLatinAmerica:LittleExperience,ButBigPotential 409  

MGI2008;Phillips2008).Withoutreforms,theseinstitutionswillnot(re)gain

thelegitimacytheyneedtoact.Theycanfunctionefficientlyonlyifthereisa

minimumofcommonvaluesandaims.

Alookattheinternationalweightandengagementofmajorpartnersis

encouraging.TheEU27commandoneeighthofthevotesintheUnitedNations

GeneralAssembly(UNGA),theEUandLACtogetheronethird.EUmember

statesusuallyvoteunanimously(97percentsince1998/99),provide39percent

oftheUNsregularbudget,andtheEUplusmemberstatesare,together,by

farthelargestdonorofdevelopmentassistance,with55percent.EUmember

statesarelikewisethelargestfinancialcontributorto UN peacekeeping,

missionswithsome40percentin2007.Theythereforeprovidehalfthebudget

ofUNfundsandprogrammes(GowanandBrantner2008).

Inmyview,thereisnodoubtthatweneedcomprehensivereformandrevitalisation

oftheUNsystemandoftheinternationalfinancialarchitecture.Thisisnecessaryto

reinforcetheirdemocraticnature,transparency,accountabilityandefficiency,andtheir

representativeness,whichmustcorrespondtotodaysworld,nottothatof1945.Ialso

considervetorightsasoutdated,andIregretnonconstructivebehaviourincertain

“reformed”institutions.Ontheotherhand,achangeinvotingrightsisnoguarantee

ofgreaterefficiency,asillustratedbytheWTOorthenewCouncilonHumanRights.

Chinahasalsotakenanactiveroleindealingwithfinancialcriseselsewhere,

beitin1997ortoday.Itspresenceininternationalorganisationsorinternational

nongovernmentorganisations(INGOs)hasincreasedsince1977from21to50

internationalorganisationsandfrom71tosome1,300INGOs.Brazilhas

fosteredcoalitionsforcooperationwithinLatinAmericaandbeyond.TheUnion

ofSouthAmericanNations(UNASURUnióndeNacionesSuramericanas),the

creationofaSouthAmericanDefenceCouncilandtheIndiaBrazilSouthAfrica

DialogueForum(IBSA),allcanhaveabeneficialimpactonregionalsecurity.

IBSAiscertainlyahighlyasymmetricalandheterogeneousscheme,butoffers

particularpotentialasaninitiativebetweenregionalmiddlerangepowerswith

multiethnicandmulticulturalsocieties,andexperienceofdialogue,bargaining

andpeacefulconflictresolution.Brazilisreachingouttootherlusophone

(Portuguesespeaking)countriesandtheCaribbeanwithitsbestpractices,for

example,withregardtoHIV/AIDS.Mexicoisnotonlyaleadingeconomyin

LatinAmericaandamemberoftheNorthAmericanFreeTradeAssociation

(NAFTA),butalsooftheOECD,anobserverattheCouncilofEurope,the

largestLACcontributortotheUNbudgetandpartnertosome40freetrade

agreements(FTA)aroundtheworld.Mexicohastakenmanyinitiativesandis

theauthorofimportantresolutionsandconventions,promotedandadopted—

410   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

oftenwithEUsupport—in UNforums.Itscooperationisfocusedonits

neighbourhood,notablyCentralAmericandevelopmentviaitsPlanPuebla

Panama.VariousLACcountrieshaveregularlyparticipatedininternational

peacekeepingmissions.ChilecontributestotheEUcrisismanagementmission

inBosniaand Herzegovina,andoffersjointregionalactions withinthe

frameworkoftherecentEUChileAssociationforDevelopmentandInnovation.

Withthesecountries,thereisanimpressiveconvergenceofpositionsandvisions

whichshouldnotbeoverlookedalongsideconflictualtradeissues.BothChileand

Mexicohavesomeexperiencewithtrilateralcooperationwithmajordonorssuch

asJapan,Canada,EUmemberstates,theInterAmericanDevelopmentBank

(IADB),theFoodandAgricultureOrganisation(FAO)andtheUnitedNations

DevelopmentProgramme(UNDP).Thereisalsogrowingcoordinationbetween

thetworiftsofthePacific,asintheAsianPacificEconomicCooperation

(APEC)orthe ArcoPacificoschemes,which wererecentlyreinforced.

Venezuelahasobtainedconsiderableregionalgratitudeasaresultofits

preferentialdeliveriesofoil,promotionofgreaterfinancialindependencefor

LAC countries from international financial institutions and trilateral

humanitarianandsocialmissionstogetherwithCuba.Weshouldprofitfrom

thesenumerousexperiencesontheground,forexample,withregardtopoverty

reductionandsocialcohesion,but wecouldalsotakeupthenumerous

commitmentsinourEULatinAmericanagreements,whichoftensuggestthe

possibilityoftrilateralcooperation.

3.2 LabourandHumanRights

Multilateralismlacarteisonlyasecondbestsolution.Internationalnorms

are,inmanycases,preferabletobilateralagreements,sincetheyreflecta

broaderrangeofinterests.Thisisnotmerelyamatterofsoftpowerand

“bleedinghearts”.Weareconvincedthatmoreeconomicdevelopmentand

broaderproductrangesleadtomoreattentionbeingpaidtobroadlyaccepted

norms—inourownnationalorregionalinterest.

ThisiswhytheEUpromotescoreUNorInternationalLabourOrganization

(ILO)conventionsonhumanandlabourrightsandrequeststheirratificationand

effectiveimplementationasabasisforitsunilateralschemeofgeneralised

preferencesforlessadvancedcountries.Iseeacommoninterestinworking

towardsconventionsonminimumlabourandsocialstandards.NotonlyPortugal

andMexicobutalso,morerecently,Chinaislosingcompetitivenessandthus

jobstootherevenmore“lowcost”countries.Thisisinthelongterminterestof

TrilateralRelationsbetweenChina,theEUandLatinAmerica:LittleExperience,ButBigPotential 411  

usall:themoreregionssuchasAfricaandLatinAmericabecomemarketsfor

Chineseproducts,themoreChinawillhaveaninterestinfutureconsumerswith

themeanstopurchase.

Weallwanttosell,soweshouldcooperateinfosteringsuchsocialdevelop

ments.DuringoneofhisvisitstoEurope,ChinesePrimeMinisterWenJiabao

recalledAdamSmiths犜犺犲狅狉狔狅犳 犕狅狉犪犾犛犲狀狋犻犿犲狀狋狊,underliningthatifthe

fruitsofeconomicdevelopmentarenotsharedbyall,thatis“morallyunsound”

andathreattostability.Hence,China,LatinAmericaandtheEUcancooperate

inexchangesofexperiencesonreinforcingsocialcohesion,andinalargersense,

sustainabledevelopment.

Likesomeothercountries,notablyintheG77,Chinahasbeenparticularlyaware

oftheissueofsovereignty,stronglydefendingnoninterferenceandrefrainingfrom

givingothergovernmentsmoralsermons.Stressingstatesovereigntyandnon

interferenceininternalaffairsis,inourview,notsufficient,however;theEUstrongly

promotesthenotionthatpeople havetherightand governments havethe

“responsibilitytoprotect”(R2P),adoptedatthe2005UNSummit,tosomeextent

puttingpeopleatthesamelevelasstates.

Peopleexpecttobeprotectedandtheimmunityofstatesmenintheexercise

oftheirfunctionsshouldnotbepervertedintoimpunityinthenameofnon

interferenceincaseoftheheinouscrimesforwhichR2Pwasconceived.Inthe

Pinochetcase,forexample,theBritishHighCourtstressedthiswiththesimple

statementthat“itisnotamongastatesmansfunctionstotorturehiscitizens”.

TheEUbelievesinthe“narrowbutdeep”conceptofR2P:fourcrimesandthree

pillars.Thepreventivedimensionandassistancetostatestobuildtheircapacity

toensuretheirownresponsibilitytoprotectarecrucial.Thisconceptdoesnot

encroachonnationalsovereigntysinceitisinrealityaboutprevention,notabout

intervention.R2PwouldmaketheUNSecurityCouncilsuseofChapterVII

moredifficult.Thus,theEUconsidersacceptanceoftheprincipleofR2Pasa

meansofenhancingconflictprevention.

MostLACcountriesbelieveintheideaformulatedintheEuropeanSecurity

Strategy(12December2003)that“thebestprotectionforoursecurityisaworld

ofwellgoverneddemocraticstates”.“Spreadinggoodgovernance,supporting

socialandpoliticalreform,dealing withcorruptionandabuseofpower,

establishingtheruleoflawandprotectinghumanrightsarethebestmeansof

strengtheningtheinternationalorder.”Thebackgroundforthisphilosophyisof

coursetheEUsownrecenthistory.

Chinasredefinedviewofinternationalrelationshasreaffirmedsomefamiliar

positions,butalsoexpressesawillingnesstoengageinconstructiveengagement

412   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

withregardtoglobalgovernanceinthemanagementof“Weltinnenpolitik”

(globaldomesticpolicy).Withrisingstrengthcomerisingresponsibilities,but

thereverseisalsotrue.WeallhaveaninterestinparticipatinginUNpeace

keepingmissionsorfightinginsecurity—forexample,intheseasaroundthe

HornofAfrica.ItisencouragingthatAsianstatesarenowmoreoutspokenin

theircriticismsofandengagementinsuchsituationsasMyanmar.Chinahas

comearoundtotheviewthatallshouldencourageprogresstowardsdemocracy,

lestitbecomeadangertosecurityandstabilityintheregion.

Withregardtothenew Human RightsCouncil (HRC)orUN anti

corruptionconventions,nooneshouldbeallowedtomakeadeclamatoryand

acclamatorymockeryofwhatwasmeanttobeaconstructivelearningprocessof

bestpractices.RecentbadexperiencespointtotheHRCaspossiblyafailing

institution.SimilardeplorabletrendswereseenintheThirdCommitteeofthe

UNGA,andalltooobviousattacksoncountryresolutions.Thereareother,

moreencouragingexamples,however:theEU welcomedtheAssociationof

SouthEastAsianNations(ASEAN)fortheestablishmentoftheTermsof

Referenceforthenew IntergovernmentalCommission on Human Rights

(AICHR)on20July2009,whichisagoodbasisfromwhichfuturepartnership

couldevolve.

Also,thepeopleoftheworldwillnotunderstandifsomecountriesobstruct

progresswithregardtotheUN Conventionagainstcorruption.Corruption

distortsthecriteriabywhichpublicpoliciesarechosen,andtherebyundermines

theefficiency,efficacyandtransparencyofthosepolicies.Corruptionisequally

perniciousamongindividualcitizens,weakeningthebasictrustthatisatthecore

ofmostconceptionsofrobust,highqualitydemocracy.Politicalcorruption

mattersmoreindemocraciesthaninotherregimetypesbecauseiterodestwo

basicpillarsofdemocraticregimes:theequalityofcitizensandtheopennessof

decisionmaking.Butthoughcorruptionexistseverywhere,itseffectsaremore

dramaticthepooreracountryis.Wemustcooperateonthefullimplementation

oftheUNConventionagainstTransnationalOrganizedCrimeandsupplementary

protocolsonthefightagainstorganisedcrimeandtheUNConventionagainst

Corruption.

Otherareasforcooperationshouldbementioned,notasashoppinglistbut

becausetheyhaveobviouspotentialfortrilateralormultilateralcooperation.

Clearly,therehasrecentlybeenatrendawayfrommultilateralsolutionsand

agreementsandtheinfluenceoftheEUhasdecreasedasanormsettingpower.

ThegeneralcarrotbasedapproachoftheEUasasoftpowershouldalsobe

underlined,withitsoffersofassistanceandrespectforthesovereigntyof

TrilateralRelationsbetweenChina,theEUandLatinAmerica:LittleExperience,ButBigPotential 413  

recipientcountriesthroughtheprincipleof“ownership”andnegotiatedfunds,

programmesandprojects.

Thereisinsufficientspacehereforadiscussionoftheconsiderablepotential

fortrilateralcooperationonthebasisoftheelaboratebilateral,sectoraland

policydialoguesexistingorbeingestablishedbilaterallybetweentheEUand

China(24sectoraldialoguessofar),orinthestrategicpartnershipsbetweenthe

EUandBrazilandtheEUandMexicoandtheirjointactionplans,aswellasthe

AssociationforDevelopmentandInnovationwithChile,reinforceddialogues

withArgentinaandVenezuela,anddialoguesinwhichtheEUistakingthelead

withregardtohumanrightsornonproliferationofweaponsofmassdestruction

(WMD)togetherwithnumerousothercountries.Someareasarebetterdealt

withbilaterally,butothers—includingcohesionpolicy,issuesofmegacity

management,urbanruralrelations,civilaviation,sanitaryandphytosanitary

issues,theenvironment,energyandinformationtechnology—clearlyhavemore

trilateralorevenmultilateralpotential.

3.3 CooperationwithintheWTOandBenefitsBeyondIt

Inaglobalisedworld,thereareadvantagesinnormswhicharesharedas

globallyaspossible,as wellasinacceptedprocedures,beyondbilateral

arrangements.Wecannotlimitourselvestorepeateddeclarationsaimedatsaving

orrevitalisingtheDohaprocess,suchas“confirmingourwillingnesstoreachan

ambitious,comprehensiveandbalancedagreementthatfulfilsthedevelopment

objectivesoftheRoundandsignificantlyfosterstradeflowsinagriculture,

industrialgoodsandservicesamongandbetweendevelopedanddeveloping

countries,aswellaspromoteseffectivetraderules”.Thisisnotaneasytask.It

isclearfromtheDohaprocessthatnoonecanclaimtoknowautomaticallywhat

bestservesdevelopingcountries.Inthepast,theEUwasrightlycriticisedfor

itsagriculturalsubsidies—however,thishasbeendramaticallyrectified.Brazil,

too,becameawarethatitscallforcompleteliberalisationofagriculturaltrade

wasseenasathreatbylessefficientagriproducingcountries.

China withits (too)stronglyexportorientedeconomy mustbecome

interestedin—somewouldsay,itisdependenton—behaviourandrulesleading

tomorepredictabilityinrelations.Agreednormsandproceduresaremeanttodo

justthat.ThisisonereasonwhytheEU,whoseopenmarkethasbeenalarge

contributortoChinasexportledgrowth,wasastrongsupporterofChinas

accessiontotheWTOinlate2001,followedbyabroadEUChinastrategic

partnershipin2004andin2007bynegotiationsonanappropriateframework

414   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

agreement.

AsformerTradeCommissionerPeterMandelsonsaid,theEUexpects

tangibleresultsintheform ofmarketaccess,enforcementofintellectual

propertyrights(IPR),consumersafetyandsoon.Probablynoothercountry

hasgainedmorefromglobalisationthanChina.Nationalstandardswhichdiffer

significantlyfrominternationalonescausehighcompliancecostsanddelays.

EasingaccesstotheChinesemarketisanobjectivetheEUshareswithkey

developingoremergingcountries.

Idonotsharetheworriessometimesexpressedaboutimpendingcatastrophe

withregardtoclearlyshiftingcentresofgravityintheworldeconomy.Itakea

moreoptimistic,cooperativeview.Apparently,inChinese,thesignfor“crisis”

isalsothesignfor“opportunity”.Economicactivitiestosomeextentmoving

awayfromEuropeandtheUSandevenLatinAmericashouldnotbeseenmerely

asaonewayprocess.First,weretainlongacquiredtechnologicalcapabilities.

Second,suchmovescanalsogenerateincomeforEuropeanenterprises,directly

orthroughlicencefees.Third,generaldevelopmentandknowhowgeneratedin

Asiaand Latin Americacreateconsiderabledemandforcertain European

industries,suchasrenewableenergytechnology,transportandsoforth,and

providegroundsforresearch,whichcanbecomemorecooperative.Also,itis

simplistictoseethegrowingChinesepresenceonbothEUandLatinAmerican

marketsasathreat,mainlyduetocheaplabour.Itshouldbeseenasawakeup

callforthose whohavesofarfailedtoelaboratenationalandregional

developmentandreformstrategies.Chinahasapointinstressingthatitslow

pricedexportproductscanbepurchasedbythepoorinLatinAmerican,butitis

alsotruethattoallowthepoortobuyanythingtheyneedjobs,whichcanbe

endangeredbysuchlowpriceimports.Ontheotherhand,forLACthereare

risksofbeingstuckinthelowvaluerawmaterialexportcorner(TheEconomist

2005:43;OECD2006;IABD2006;Buck2006;deFreitasBarbosa2007).1

Chinahasconfirmeditsinterestinprotectingintellectualpropertyrights

(IPR)andincontrollingproductsafety.Theirresponsiblebehaviourofsome

producersthreatensChinesecompaniesjustasmuchasanyothers.Underan

agreementof2006,theEUpassesoninformationaboutdangerousgoodstothe

Chineseauthorities. Weshould welcomethefactthat,despitegrowing

problems,cooperationhasimprovedrapidly.Suchcooperationcouldbeextended

tootherpartners.Itshouldalsobeaddedthat,duetoitsrapiddevelopment,

Chinaisalsobecomingthevictimofunfairorcriminalproductionelsewhere.In

April2009,forthefirsttimeaGermancourtprotectedaChinesefirmagainst

counterfeitingbyaGermanfirm(althoughitshouldalsobenotedthatitsowner

TrilateralRelationsbetweenChina,theEUandLatinAmerica:LittleExperience,ButBigPotential 415  

wasaChineseexpatriate).

Thereisclearlyacommoninterestinworkingoutamutuallyagreedand

balancedapproachtotheenforcementofintellectualpropertyrights,whichcan

providethebasisforthepromotionofinnovationandtheestablishmentofan

objective dialogue on the common challenges of fighting piracy and

counterfeiting.On30January2009,theEUandChinasignedanactionplanon

customscooperationintacklingpiracyandcounterfeiting,as wellasan

agreementondrugprecursors.

The Chinese agreement to discuss opening service markets,the

MERCOSURChilebusinessseminarontheadvantagesoftriangulationinMay

2009,theEUChinaBiodiversityProgrammeandsimilarcommitmentswithinthe

frameworkoftheEULACsummitprocessarepromisingstepsinotherareas.

Anotherimportantaspectisthefactthatweallmaybenefitinthelongterm

fromChineseinvestmentinAfghanistan,PakistanandIran,wherethebuilding

ofroads,mines,transportandinfrastructure,althoughcertainlydoneinChinas

owninterest,also contributes to economic development there and to

interdependence,bothofwhicharealwaysgoodbasesformorestability.

Asalreadymentioned,multilateralismàlacarteisonlyasecondbest

solution,withthedangerofclashingregulatorypolicies.Takeinvestment:the

moreChinawishestoinvestabroad,includingtomakethebestofitshugedollar

reservesinturbulenttimes,themoreitislikelytodevelopaninterestin

agreeingoninternationalstandards,rulesorcodesofconduct.Addingtoa

growinginternational“spaghettibowl”inthisarea,Chinahasbeenacommitted

signatoryofbilateralinvestmenttreaties.Sincethe1980s,about120havebeen

signed,mostlywithseriousreservations.Inthisway,ofcourse,thereisarisk

thatdevelopingcountrieswillseetheirregulatoryautonomyfurtherreduced,and

somequestionwhetherChinaisactinginaccordancewithitsrhetoriconmutual

beneficialSouthSouthcooperation(Berger2008:1822).Ontheotherhand,in

thisrespect,theindustrialisedcountriesarenotabovereproach:EUmember

statesjealouslytrytodefendtheirindividualinvestmentprotectionagreements

againstanEUwideharmonisedapproach.Furthermore,industrialisedcountries

alsokeeptheireconomiesclosedtoChineseorLatinAmericaninvestment,under

thealltooeasyprofessionof “vitalnationalinterests”oreven “economic

patriotism”.

3.4!犈犱狌犮犪狋犻狅狀犪狀犱犐狀狀狅狏犪狋犻狅狀

Highereducationisbothapublicresponsibilityandapublicasset.

Investmentintheeconomycreatesjobs,incomes,progressandaddedvalue.

416   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

Investmentinthehighereducationofthebestbrainsinoursocietiesandin

internationalscientificandeducationalexchangealsohelpstoachievethis.But

suchinvestmenthasadditionallongterm value:itfostersunderstanding,

friendshipandsolidarityamongequals.Itmakesacriticalcontributionto

genuineandsolidpartnerships.

Internationalcomparativeanalysessincethe1970sshowthatoneofthe

majorfactorsexplainingwhysomecountriesinEastandSouthEastAsia,in

contrasttothefairlyslowprogressinLatinAmerica,havebeenabletoleapfrog

othersindevelopmenttermswastheirmassiveinvestmentinhumancapital,

combinedwithfocussedindustrialpolicies(Karlssonetal.1994).Chinais

alreadyoneofthemajorspendersonR&Dandhas—likeBrazil—reachedvery

highlevelsintermsofcontributionstosciencepublications.InChinaeachyear

therearehalfamillionnewpostgraduatesinscience,medicineandengineering;

inLatinAmerica,ontheotherhand,thepreferredcareerisstillthatoflawyer

ornotary(SchmitzandMessner2008:28).OnlyBrazil,ChileandCubaallocate

morethan0.5percentofGDPtoscienceandtechnology(EuropeanParliament

2008:27),comparedtotheaverageof2.4percentintheOECDand2percent

intheEUandChina,whichaspiresto2.5percentin2020.Meanwhile,studies

showthatoftensucheffortsarestillaccompaniedbyunequalaccessto

education—asituationfamiliarin mostsocieties (Grevi2009:19).Beijing

recentlyemphasisedsocialinvestmentasessentialtoChinaseconomicstability

andgrowth,withhealthandeducationatthetopofthelist.

VariousLACcountrieshavemadeconsiderableeffortstoimproveaccessto

education,andpromotingeducation,R&Dandexchangesofstudentsand

professorsareapriorityamongthecommitmentsmadeattheEULACsummits.

AsthefirstEULACsummitin1999inRiostressed,“thereisnobetter

investmentthandevelopinghumanresources,whichisbothacommitmentto

socialjusticeandarequirementforlongtermeconomicgrowth”(EUCouncil

1999).TheEUandLACplantoestablishaCommonSpaceforhighereducation

by2015.

IntheirJointActionPlan(JAP),BrazilandtheEUarecommittedtothe

buildingofa peoplecentred,nondiscriminatoryand developmentoriented

informationsociety,envisagedbytheWorldSummitontheInformationSociety(WSIS),aswellastheestablishmentofmultilateral,transparentanddemocratic

multistakeholdermechanismsforthegovernanceoftheglobalinternet.All

countriesrecognisetheimportanceofandcouldbenefitfromcooperationwith

regardtoinformationandcommunicationtechnologies (ICTs),whichare

TrilateralRelationsbetweenChina,theEUandLatinAmerica:LittleExperience,ButBigPotential 417  

essentialforfosteringinnovation,competitivenessand economicgrowth,

creatingjobsandincreasingtheefficiencyofthepublicsector.Moreover,ICTs

haveafundamentalroleinpromotingdigitalinclusionandimprovingsocial

cohesion,increasingthequalityoflifeandreducingpoverty.Itisessentialforall

countriestoworkinclosecoordinationinallrelevantinternationalforumsin

ordertofacilitatethefullimplementationofWSISoutcomes.Itwouldalsobe

worthlaunchingpublictendersforthejointselectionandfundingofR&D

projects,assuggestedintheEUBrazilJAP.

Besidespurelylanguagedrivencooperation programmes,the EU can

developtrilateralfutureactionswithintheframeworkofitswellestablishedand

largescale academic exchange and R&D framework programmes. The

“Euraxess”link,meanttoprovideanetworkingtoolforEuropeanresearchers

livingabroad,hasrecentlybeenextendedtoChina(afterUSAandJapan)and

canhelptofostermorethanbilateralcontactsandcooperation.

3.5!犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀犅犪狊犲犱狅狀犪犅狉狅犪犱犲狉犆狅狀犮犲狆狋狅犳犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔

Securityclearlyconcernsmorethanmilitaryandborderissues.LiketheEU

andLatinAmerica,Chinahasadoptedanenlargedconceptofsecurity,involving

threatssuch asdrugsandtransnationalorganised crime,terrorism and

pandemics.Itshouldbepossibletocooperateonthesenewthreatsand

challenges,evenifitisdifficultwithregardtoclassicmilitaryissues.

ApromisingtrendinLatinAmericaisitswillingnessandcapacitytoaddress

itsownsecurityissues,withoutreferringnecessarilytotheOrganizationof

AmericanStates(OAS).Thisnewapproachhasalreadyshowngoodresultsin

crisispreventionandmanagement.TherecentlycreatedSouthAmericanDefence

Council(CDS)isnotaclassicoperationalmilitaryalliancealongthelinesofthe

NorthAmericanTreatyOrganisation (NATO),butrathera “method”of

confidencebuilding,safeguardingpeaceandassertingtheprimacyofcivilianover

militarypowerintheregion,aswellasreinforcingcooperationondefence

policies.TheCDSwillnothaveanoperationalmandate,butmayfacilitatejoint

militarytrainingandcouldsendcombinedunitstoparticipateindealingwith

regionalemergencies.

TheEUandLAChaveincommonthatnobodycanseriouslyconsiderthema

militarythreat.TogetherwithChina,however,bothshareawillingnessand

capacitiesforpeacekeeping,crisispreventionandpostcrisismanagement.It

mightalsobeworthmentioningherethatthegenderperspectiveisparticularly

importantforsuccessinthisarea.WecanbuildonexperienceasinHaitibefore

theearthquake,andengagetheinternationalcommunityinabroaderdialogueon

418   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

improvingresourcesandpracticesinUNpeacebuildingactivities.Thereisno

needtostressthatfightingterrorismanditsfundingisachallengeweallshare.

Weallhaveaninterestinmorestabilityandinpreventingtheemergenceof

breedinggroundsforterrorism,whichalsoaffectChineseinterests.Cooperation

intermsofinternationalefforts,strategiesandrecommendationsshould

thereforebesteppedup.

Another aspect of security cooperation is disaster prevention and

management.TheEUhasjustadoptedastrategyforsupportingdisasterrisk

reductionindevelopingcountries,whichistobeintegratedinitsdevelopment

policiesandthepromotionofdialogueandconcreteactionwithallinterested

parties.Thedramain Haitioffersnotonlyalongterm opportunity,but

representsan obligation forinternationalcooperation beyond ideological

considerationsandnationalinterests.Referenceshouldalsobemadeinthis

connectionto Global Climate Change Action (GCCA)and the Global

EnvironmentFacility(GEF).Cooperationintherunuptoandintheagreement

onthesecondGlobalPlatformonDisasterRiskReduction(DRR)inJune2009

wasveryimportant.

4.犜狉犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀犻狀犇犲狏犲犾狅狆犿犲狀狋犪狀犱犛犲犮狌狉犻狋狔—犃犳狉犻犮犪

TheEUhasaninterestinengagingandconsultingwithbothChinaand

LatinAmerica,aswellasinpromotingdevelopmentinareastowhichtheyhave

betteraccessorparticularexperienceandadvantages:insomeAfricancountries,

forexample.Thegrowingnumberofhighlevelvisitshasunderlinedthis.The

traditionaldonorrecipient,charitybasedapproachisoutdated.IntheEUBrazil

JAP,both willjoinforcestoimproveprogresstowardsthe Millennium

DevelopmentGoal(MDG)priorities,andhavestressedtheroleoftriangular

cooperation.Indeed,theEU,astheworldslargestgrantdonor,andourLatin

Americanpartners,asincreasinglyengagedactors,shouldcombinetheirefforts

withChinatobringdevelopmentskillsandprosperitytodevelopingcountries.

ThisalsomeansthatChinaandmajorLatinAmericancountriesmayhaveto

shoulderanincreasingaidbill.

Accordingto UN datareportedin EU internaldocuments,Chinas

engagementinAfricaisconsiderable.Itisnowthecontinentsthirdlargest

tradingpartner,with(2006figures)over800Chinesecompaniesinvesting,some

500jointventures,80,000Chineseworkers,thecancellationofdebtsworth

morethan1billionUSdollarsowedby31Africancountries,theabolitionof

tariffsonnumerousgoodsfromtheleastdevelopedcountries,18,000scholarshipsfor

50countriesand16,000medicalpersonneltreating240millionpatientsin47countries.

TrilateralRelationsbetweenChina,theEUandLatinAmerica:LittleExperience,ButBigPotential 419  

Since1999,Chinahassuccessivelydispatchedover7,000peacekeepers,comprising

militaryobservers,militaryengineersandcivilpolicetotakepartin21peace

keepingmissionsacrosstheworld,morethantherestoftheUNSecurity

Councilspermanentfivememberscombined.Currently,Chinaisthethirteenth

largestcontributorofpeacekeepingtroops.MostoftheChinesepeacekeepers

weredeployedonallsevenongoingUNAfricanmissions.

Chinahasgainedexperienceasapeacekeeperandapeacekeepingtrainer;it

isnolongerpurelyaparticipant,butalsoanactiveorganiser,like,forexample,

BrazilinHaiti.Pursuingnationalinterestsisabsolutelylegitimate.Inthepast,

Chinasengagementwasviewedwithsuspicioninsomequarters;someactions

weresaidtoundermineeffortstoimprovedemocracy,liberty,humanrights,

socialandenvironmentalstandards,transparencyoraccountabilityandgood

governance.Unlikethe EUsassistance,Chineseaidistiedto Chinese

companiesandlabour—whichseemstocopya Westernapproachrightly

criticisedsomedecadesago.EUassistanceisthusmoreopentotrilateralaction.

CommissionerLouisMichelhasexplicitlywelcomedChinassupportforAfrica.

Recipientcountries—butalsoEurope—benefitmoreifanagendaislaiddown

whichunderlinescomplementarity,comparativeadvantageandsynergy,evenif

approachesmaysometimescompetewitheachother.Noonebenefitsfrom

adversecompetitioninthisrespect.Sometimes,internationalrulesandpractices

inaidmanagementwereestablishedwithoutChinabeinginvitedorparticipating.

Nobodycanbeaskedtocomplywithrulesiftheyhavenotbeendiscussedwith

them.Thismustberemedied.Thus,dialogueisthefirststep.Butweneedto

gobeyondstatementsofgoodintentions.Wefirstneedtoassesseachothers

strategiesandapproaches狊犻狀犲犻狉犪犲狋狊狋狌犱犻狅.Thenwemustadvance,building

experienceandtrustintrilateralrelations.Trilateralcooperationinaregion

mustbeacornerstoneofstrategicpartnershipinandonglobalaffairs.

AbasishasbeenlaidforthisintermsofEULACorbilateralstrategic

partnershipsandjointactionplans,orintheEUChinadialogueonAfricas

peace,stabilityandsustainabledevelopment.Wecanstartbycooperatingin

areasthatarerelativelyuncontroversialintermsofvaluesandobjectives,such

aspublicsectorsupport,infrastructureorhealth,notablyinAfrica.Wealready

havesomecommonbasesformore,asChineseandBrazilianrepresentativesare

attimesinvolvedintheworkingoutofEUprojectsinWestAfrica.Wealso

shareinitiativesonresponsibletrade,suchastheForestLawandenvironmental

governance,orthe Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative.Itis

regrettablethatAfricancountrieshavesofarshownlittleinterestintriangular

cooperation.Ofcourse,itiseasierforsomeleadersnottocommittocooperation

420   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

whichmighthavepoliticalandsocialramificationswhichwouldnotsuitthem.

5.犆狅狀犮犾狌犱犻狀犵犜犲犮犺狀犻犮犪犾犪狀犱犃犱犿犻狀犻狊狋狉犪狋犻狏犲犆狅犿犿犲狀狋狊

Fortriangularcooperationbasedonconcreteprojects,wealsoneedpolitical

guidancebeyondpurelycommercialinterests.Chinahasrecentlytakensuch

stepsamongitsministries,butitsstateownedenterprisesshouldfollowsuit.

Corporatesocialresponsibilityisgaininggroundandshouldbepromotedinthese

timesofcrisis.

Donorcoordinationandsimplificationofproceduresisessentialtoavoid

wasteandtheoverloadofbeneficiariesadministrations.TheParisDeclarationof

the OECDDAC,the Accra Agenda and the “European consensusfor

development”help.National“ownership”mustberespectedbutalsodemanded.

Thegoalistoactinconcert,creatinglocallyownedsolutionsfordevelopment,

onvariouslevels.

Inplanningandimplementingpossibletriangularcooperation,wemustall

beawarethatournationalandregionaldecisionmakingsystemsinvolveelements

ofdecentralisation,localpoliticalautonomy,liberalelementsinthebusiness

sector—andsometimesproblemsofoverarchingcontrol—bothinChinaandthe

EU.WhentalkingabouttheEU,weshouldmentiontheEuropeanInvestment

Bank(EIB),withitslargecapacities,butalsospecificandindependentrules.

Triangularcooperationcomplicatescoordination,and maycausehigher

transactioncosts.HeretheremaybeaproblemwiththeoverlycomplexEU

internaldecisionmakingandaccountabilityprocess,created withthebest

intentionsoftransparencybutoftencriticisedasslowandinflexible.Whereas

VenezuelasPresidentChavezliterallycanpullachequeoutofhispocketwhen

accompanyingPresidentMoralestomeetpeasantsinBolivia,theEuropean

Commissionmustsubmitprojectsofacertainsizeforapprovalbymemberstates

andsometimesbythe European Parliament,negotiateacceptancebythe

beneficiarycountrywithinitsownprogramme,thenlaunchEUwidetenders,

obtainsignaturesfromvariousDirectorateGeneralsandlevelswithinCOMand

otherthingsbesides.

ThecurrentcrisisillustratestheEUsweaknesses.Intrilateralcooperation,

therefore,itwouldbewisetotakethemintoaccount,butalsototrytodeal

withthem,includingstructuralproblemswhichdonotaffectonlyemerging

powers,suchassocialcohesion,sustainabledevelopment,infrastructure,

administrativeculturesandtheenvironment.Reducingexpenditureonsuch

fieldsinneedofreformcanbedangerousinthelongterm.Trilateralcooperation

isanopportunityforlearning.

TrilateralRelationsbetweenChina,theEUandLatinAmerica:LittleExperience,ButBigPotential 421  

Lastbutcertainlynotleast,wemustalsopromotepeopletopeoplecontacts

andculturalexchangestofacilitatetriangularinitiatives.Frommyexperiencein

EULACrelationsI muststress how much we both benefitfrom the

interparliamentarymeetingsandconsultationsbetweenourcivilsocietiesas

valuableforumsforbetterunderstanding,promotingbiregionalinitiatives,with

closercontactswithourconstituents,andconsolidatingourdemocraticbases.

AsthereportoftheSecretaryGeneraltotheUNGAin2005underlined:

“States...cannotdothejobalone...Weneedanactivecivilsocietyanda

dynamicprivatesector.Itisplainthatthegoalsoutlinedherewillnotbe

achievedwithouttheirfullengagement.”

Finally,asKissingerrecommended,“weallmustlearntooperatewiththe

attainableandbepreparedtopursueendsbytheaccumulationofnuance”.

Kissingeralsostressedthatmoralandotherobjectivesmustbeinharmonywith

ourcapacitiesforaction.Unrealisticexpectationsundermineaction.Inpoliticsit

isnotenoughtobe“right”—inanycase,itisoftenhighlycolouredideologically.

Onealsoneedsthecapacitytopushthroughwhatoneconsiders“right”andto

seizethemoment,notgettingboggeddownindetails.

Notes

1.FormoreontheCaribbean,seeErikson(2009)andECLAC(2008).

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! 423  

犆犺犪狆狋犲狉15

犆犺犻狀犪,狋犺犲犈犝犪狀犱犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪牶犜狉犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犚犲犾犪狋犻狅狀狊

犪狀犱犛犮狅狆犲犳狅狉犕狌犾狋犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犻狊犿

1#,/*- 23,4)$# ."#43

1.犃犛狔狊狋犲犿犻犮犆狉犻狊犻狊牶犜犺犲犆犪狊犲犳狅狉犜狉犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀

Thecurrentglobalcrisishasbroughthomewithunprecedentedandpainful

forcethatthereisapotentialdownsidetoglobalisation.Amiddramaticsignsof

recession,losttradeandcreditsqueeze,theinternationalrecession has

underscoredtheimportanceofcoordinationanddialogueindealingwithatruly

systemicphenomenon.Theriskofeachcountrygoingitsownwayandtryingto

dealinisolationwitheconomichardship,blinkeredbynarrowselfinterest,has

beenclearforalltoseeasprotectionismraisesitshead.Thisexplainsrecent

moves,unprecedentedintheirscale,towardsinternationalcooperationin

mattersoffinance,currencyandtrade,asshowcasedduringtheG20Summitsin

2009and2010.

Butthepersistenceofmajorstumblingblocksontheroadtorecovery,

stemmingfromdivergentperceptionsofthenatureanddepthofthecrisis,points

totheneedforevengreaterandmoreagilecollaboration.Thesummoningbythe

PresidentoftheGeneralAssemblyofaUNConferenceonthecrisisinJune2009

demonstratedarecognitionthatamoreholisticandintegratedoutlookisrequired

ifthemultipleandinterconnectedchallengesfacingtheplanetaretobedealt

withsuccessfully.

Multilateralismisnodoubtacrucialpartoftheanswer,astheworld

communitystrivestoovercomescepticismabouttheusefulnessofinternational

institutionsatalllevels.Thecumbersomenatureofmultilateraldecisionmaking

reinforcesahealthysenseofurgencyaboutaddressingglobalchallenges.While

nosubstituteforglobalinstitutions,oneislefttoponderwhetherenhancing

mechanismsfordialogueandchannelsofcooperationbetweenfarflungpartsof

424   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

theworldisnotpartoftheanswerifglobalisationistoretainitspromise.

Itiswithinthiscontextthatproposalsforenhancedtrilateralrelationsare

gainingcurrency.Thisnotionencouragescountriesandregionstotakethelead

inworkingtogetheracrossawiderangeofcommonintereststhatgenerate

mutuallyreinforcing benefits.Ideally,this would be achieved through

institutionalarrangementsthatforgelinksbetweencountriesandregions

geographicallyorhistoricallydistant.

InthecaseofLatinAmerica,theEuropeanUnionandChinathisisstillan

ambitiousconceptinthemaking.Asofnow,therearefewconcreteexampleson

offer.Outsidethetraditionaltranscontinentalimperialregimesofthepast,this

concepthasbecomeconceivableonlyinthecontextofglobalisationasunderstood

fromthelatetwentiethcenturyonwards.Itisonlythegrowinginterdependence

betweenthemostfarflungcornersoftheworldundertheaegisofglobalflows

ofcapital,technologyand knowledgethathave madethisnotiontruly

meaningfulandpotentiallyoperational.Thebestpathforwardwouldseemtobe

toworkupthroughpreexistingtwowayrelationshipssoastoidentifypointsof

symmetryandconvergencethatwouldhelpconnectthethreepoles.

2.犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪,狋犺犲犆犪狉犻犫犫犲犪狀犪狀犱狋犺犲犈狌狉狅狆犲犪狀犝狀犻狅狀牶犆狅犾狅狀犻犪犾犘犪狊狋犪狀犱

犘狉犲狊犲狀狋犱犪狔犃犾犾犻犪狀犮犲

  InthecaseofLatinAmericaandEurope,tiesarelongstandinganddate

backtoEuropeancolonisationoftheAmericasintheearlysixteenthcentury,

havingsurvivedthestrainsimposedbytheindependencestrugglesoftheearly

nineteenthcentury.Overrecentdecades,asLatinAmericanandEuropean

integrationhaveadvancedoneithersideoftheAtlantic,aseriesofbiregional

dialogueandcooperationmechanismshaveevolved.

ThemostsignificantandfarreachingoftheseistheLatinAmericaand

CaribbeanEuropeanUnionHeadsofStateandGovernmentSummitprocess,or

EULAC.Setupin1999,itmeetseverytwoyearsinaccordancewithaflexible

formatthataccommodatesthevariouspoliticalandeconomicarrangements

within Latin America. These include the Southern Common Market

(MERCOSUR),the Rio Group,1 the Andean Community (CAN),the

CaribbeanCommunity (CARICOM)andtheCentralAmericanIntegration

System(SICA).Fromalargenumberofprioritiesfirstestablishedin1999,the

latestSummit,inLima(2008),decidedtonarrowthefocustotwocentral

overarchingthemes:first,reducingpoverty,inequalityandexclusion;and

second,sustainabledevelopment,whichencapsulatestheenvironment,climate

changeandenergy.Onthewhole,thedialoguehassoughttoemphasise

China,theEUandLatinAmerica:TrilateralRelationsandScopeforMultilateralism 425  

cooperationprojects,exchangeprogrammes,capacitybuildinganddialogueon

globalagendaissues.SpainandPortugalhavetraditionallytakenaleadinmost

cooperationprojects,beitthroughtheIberianAmericansummitmechanismor

byplayingaparticularlyactiveroleintheEULACdialogue.

Theresultshave,onthewhole,beenmodest,duetothelackofaclear

focusandconflictingpriorities.Ontrade,thedifficultiesinvolvedinconcluding

anassociationagreementbetweentheEUand MERCOSURortheAndean

Communityreflectprotectionistpressuresonbothsides.Projectsinthefieldof

technical and technological cooperation have been fragmented, with

understandablylittle measurableimpactintermsofpromotingsustainable

developmentinLatinAmerica.Thishasbeenunderscoreddramaticallyand

painfullyinthebitterdisputeovermigrationcontrolsinvolvingLatinAmerican

nationalslivinginEurope.Anotherboneofcontention,especiallyasregards

Brazil,istheissueofEUrestrictionsonbiofuelimports.Giventhedivergent

viewsontheseandothermajorissues,thisgenerallackofcoherenceandsenseof

focuswasverymuchinevidenceduringtheLimaSummit.Thepictureis

aggravatedbytheEUsgrowingprioritisationofcooperationwithCentraland

EasternEurope.ThishasledSpainandPortugal,giventheirhistoricallycloser

linkstotheregion,tobankrolltheIberoAmericansummitprocess,whichtends

toconcentrateonculturalandtechnicalcooperation.2Noneofthishasdetracted

fromincreasedEuropeandirectinvestmentintheregion,probablyitsmost

consistentandlastingcontributiontoLatinAmericandevelopment,although

ironicallythisisalsoincreasinglyanirritantinthefaceofrisingeconomic

nationalisminsomeLatinAmericancountries.

3.犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪,狋犺犲犆犪狉犻犫犫犲犪狀犪狀犱犆犺犻狀犪牶犌狉狅狑犻狀犵犘犪犻狀狊

InthecaseofLatinAmericaandChina,historydoesnotcastsolonga

shadow.Onlyrecentlyhavetiesgainedgreaterweight,astheresultofgrowing

economicandcommerciallinks.Tradehasinfactjumpedquitedramaticallywith

mostcountriesoftheregion,accompaniedbytheestablishmentofdiplomatic

relationswithalmostallcountries.IncontrasttoLatinAmericaEUrelations,

thereisnocomparableinstitutionaliseddialoguemechanismbetweenChinaand

LatinAmerica;however,theMacauForum,forexample,bringstogetherChina

andPortuguesespeakingcountriesinthreecontinents.Existingmechanismsare

largelybilateralandfocusedonspecificlinks,whicharestilllargelytradeand

investmentdriven.Aswithmostcountriesandgroupings,theRioGrouphasa

regulardialoguemechanismwithChina,whichnormallymeetsatthemarginsof

majorforums.Whileitservesasausefulopportunityforgeneralexchangeson

426   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

politicalandcooperationissues,ithasnotprovidedameaningfulplatformfor

effectivepartnering.ChinaandLatin Americastillspeaklargelythrough

bilateralvoices.

4.犜狉犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犆狅狅狆犲狉犪狋犻狅狀牶犠狅狉犽犻狀犘狉狅犵狉犲狊狊

Understandably,nomatureinstitutionalframeworkfortrilateralexchange

hasyetbeenestablished.Anadditionaldifficultyhastodowiththeenormous

heterogeneitywithinLatinAmericaitself,assuggestedbythemultiplicityof

regionalforumsspeakingonbehalfoftheirdisparate membercountries.

Differentcountriesandsubregionshaveachievedvaryinglevelsofsocial,

economicandtechnologicalprogress,makingitnearlyimpossibletomoulda

uniformandcoherentsetofbiregionalstrategiesandpoliciesfocusingoncommon

prioritiesandobjectives.LatinAmericaisatamuchearlierstageofintegration

andcommonpolicydevelopmentthantheEU.Theregionhasnotachieveda

comparabledegreeofcohesiveandstructuredinternalpolicycoordinationthat

caterstoissuesofasymmetryandthebalancedgrowthrequiredtoforgeatruly

integratedmarketandforeignpolicy.Thisisclearlyvisible,forexample,inthe

slowpacedprogressofbringingtogetherthevarioussubregionalintegration

dynamicsmentionedabove.

Whileaninstitutionalframeworkfortrilateralrelationsstillliesinthe

future,thereisalreadyampleroomforcooperationonprojectsthatseekto

exploitspecificcomplementaritiesbetweenmultipleoverseaspartners.Brazilhas

takenaleadhere,havingacquiredextensiveexperienceinawiderangeoffields.

ThishasincreasinglytakentheformofmarryingBraziliantechnicalexpertiseand

technologicalknowhow withdevelopedcountryresources withaview to

promotingjointcooperationprojectsindevelopingcountries.Whilestilla

relativelynovelexperiment,successfulpartnershipshavebeentestedinthefields

oftropicalagriculture,governmentmodernisation,institutionbuildinginsocial

policy,alternativefuelsanddiseaseeradication.ThemainpartnersareinEurope

andtheUSA,thebeneficiariesnormallyinLatinAmericaandAfrica.

ThereareasyetnosuchsignificantprojectsinvolvingChina,theEUand

LatinAmerica.Thisshouldnotholdthemback,giventhatboththeEUand

Chinaareknowntobekeenondevelopingjointpartnershipsoverseas,especially

inAfrica,whileBrazilalreadyboastsextensiveexperienceincooperation

projects.LatinAmericashouldalsoaffordopportunitiesgivenBrazilsevenmore

wideranginghistoryofprovidingtechnicalandinstitutionalhelptoalmostall

countriesinSouthandCentralAmericaandincreasinglyintheCaribbeanas

well.ThestrongpresenceofEuropean,BrazilianandmoreandmoreChinese

China,theEUandLatinAmerica:TrilateralRelationsandScopeforMultilateralism 427  

enterprisesinbothAfricaandLatinAmericashouldhelpopenavenuesforjoint

work.ThisisencouragedbythefactthatEuropeancountriesaswellasChina

are,orareconsidering,joiningasassociatemembersthemajorfinancefor

developmentinstrumentsin Latin America,such astheInterAmerican

Development Bank (IADB),the Central American Bank for Economic

IntegrationandtheAndeanDevelopmentCorporation(CorporaciónAndinade

Fomento,CAF).

Therearesomeobviousopportunitiestoemploybiregionalmechanismsas

springboards for threeway collaboration. The EU maintains Strategic

PartnershipswithallBRICcountries.Oneusefullineforjointactionwouldbeto

identifythematiccoincidencescuttingacrossStrategicPartnerships.Thisis

underscoredbythefactthattheStrategicPartnershipActionPlanrecognises

Brazilsrole—presumablythesameappliestoChina—asaglobalplayerandsets

outproposalsforcooperationandconsultationonaseriesofglobalagendas,

includingtriangularcooperationbenefitingdevelopingcountries.

Afewareasforjointactioncometomindimmediately.Thefirstareais

scienceandtechnology,more particularlyin aerospace,Brazilenjoysa

flourishingpartnershipwithChina,whichwasenhancedduringthevisitof

PresidentLuladaSilvatoBeijinginMay2009.Itcentresonsatelliteimagery,

especiallyusefulforenvironmentalandweathermonitoringinLatinAmericaand

China.AsimilarpartnershipexistswithFrance.

A second area with enormouspotentialisbiofuels.Brazils30year

experienceindevelopingcleanandcompetitivelypricedethanoland,more

recently,biodiesel offers a truly exceptional opportunity for trilateral

cooperationinacriticalfieldthatshouldbedeveloped.BothChinaandtheEU

arealreadyinactivedialoguewithBrazilonbiofuels.TheInternationalForum

onEthanol,whichfosterscollaborativeworkincertification,technological

developmentanddevelopingproduction,offersavaluablelocusfortrilateral

projects.BrazilspartnershipwiththeUSinthisfieldmightprovideavaluable

model.Signedin2007,thisagreementprovidesforBrazilianexpertiseinethanol

productiontoencourageethanolproductioninLatinAmericanandAfrican

countriesintheexpectationofreceivingfavouredaccesstotheUSmarketby

beingexemptedfromthe54centtariffcurrentlyappliedtoBrazilianethanol

imports.

5.犃犔犪狋犻狀犃犿犲狉犻犮犪狀犘犲狉狊狆犲犮狋犻狏犲牶犐狀狋犲犵狉犪狋犻狅狀

Brazilianexperienceintrilateralcooperationofferspointersbuthardlyaroad

mapfortheconstructionoftrilateralrelationswiththeEUandChina.As

428   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

previouslymentioned,widediscrepanciesintechnicalandtechnologicaladvance

withinLatinAmerica—asinotherdevelopingcontinents—considerablyrestricts

thescopeforwideranging,ambitiousinitiativesofthisnature.

ThishashelpedfuelabroadlyheldperceptionofLatinAmericaaslargelya

recipientofforeignaidandabeneficiaryofdevelopedcountrycooperation,with

littletoofferinitsownright.Inotherwords,itisseenasapassiveobserverof

theongoingrestructuringoftrade,financialandtechnologicalflowsthatgoesby

thenameof“globalisation”.ThisissomethingBrazilwishestoseechangeasit

endeavourstouseintegrationasthebasisfortheregionjoiningmoreeffectively

andintelligentlyintheworldeconomy.Itmightthereforedealwiththe

questions:WhatistherelevanceoftheEUandChinaforLatinAmerica?Or,in

otherwords,howshouldLatinAmericareacttothechallengesofglobalisation

andhowdoesBrazilseeitsroleinthis?

FromaLatinAmericanperspective,themainchallengeistoavoidbeing

suckedintowhatmostLatinAmericanswouldcall“neocolonialism”revisited,

wherebytheregioncontinuestosupplyrawmaterialstodevelopedeconomiesin

exchangeforvalueaddedproductsandservices.Escapingthistraphasalways

beenacentralplankofLatinAmericaneconomicthinking.Underlyingthis

perceptionisastronglyheldsenseofalonghistoryofexpropriationofthe

regionsnaturalresourcesatthehandsofpowerfullocalelitesoperatingatthe

behestofforeigninterests.Itisthereforeunderstandablethatpublicopinionin

someofthesecountriesiseasilyledtointerpretinstarktermsattemptsby

foreignenterprisesandgovernmentstoensurelongtermaccesstolocalraw

materials.Theelectioninrecentyearsofleftwinggovernmentsthroughoutthe

regiongoessomewaytowardsexplaininggrowingeconomic,especiallyenergy,

nationalism.Itexpressestheunderlyingaspirationtoensurethattheregions

richesgenerateprosperitybackhomeandforall,notjustafavouredfew.

Thissenseofnotwantingtobesomeones“backyard”,eithereconomically

orstrategically,hastakenonnewmeaningandforceastheworldcomesunder

thefullforceoftheglobalisationrevolution.Itisunderstoodthatthenew

competitiveglobalmarketisopeningupnovelopportunitiestodevelopthe

regionsnaturalendowmentsandsignificantconsumermarketsinamanner

whichwillfostersustainablegrowth.Brazilhasbeenattheforefrontofefforts

todeveloptheintegratedregionaleconomyrequiredifLatinAmericanisto

overcomethestructurallimitationsthathavehistoricallyheldtheregionback.

This means using the promise ofglobal marketstoinvest heavilyin

infrastructuralinvestmentsintransport,communicationsandenergythatwill

China,theEUandLatinAmerica:TrilateralRelationsandScopeforMultilateralism 429  

mouldaneconomicpowerhouseabletocompeteglobally.

6.犃犌犾狅犫犪犾犖犲狑犇犲犪犾?

However,thepresentcrisishasalsoreinforcedasenseofthevulnerability

ofdevelopingcountrieswithregardtoglobalisationtakingplaceinaccordance

witheconomicandfinancialrulesnotoftheirmakingandfrequentlyweighted

againstthem.Thisisnottosaythatglobalisationshouldbereignedinor,much

less,reversed.Quitethecontrary,mostofLatin Americaopposestrade

protectionismasananswertothedownsideofglobalisation.

Thefinancialcollapsehasputinstarktermswhatclimatechangehad

alreadymadeclear:globalgovernanceinitspresentformatisunsustainable.The

inabilityofoldcoalitionsthat,traditionally,decidedmostissuestoprovide

leadershipandcredibleguidancehasbeenhighlightedbythefranticsearchfora

replacementfortheG8oreventhe UN SecurityCouncil.Butemerging

markets—thatcontributedlittletothepresentcrisisortoglobalwarming—have

becomecentraltoanysolutiontothesequestions,giventheirgrowingroleinthe

worldeconomy.Atthesametime,theircitizensaretheimmediatevictimsof

bothcrises.Thisexplainsthegrowingclamourforanewglobalcompactthat

redistributesresponsibilitiesmoreequitably.Underlyingthesedevelopmentsis

therealisationthatthecontemporaryworldisfundamentallyunbalanced:onthe

onehand,richcountriesdesiretoretainwhatisclearlyanunsustainableliving

standard,while,ontheotherhand,emerginganddevelopingnationsaspireto

higherlevelsofprosperity.Thishighlycomplexandsometimesperversesocial,

technological and economic interconnectivity—which we loosely call

globalisation—hasacceleratedwiththegrowthoftheemergingeconomies.Given

theirincorporationunderextremelycompetitiveconditionsintotheglobal

divisionoflabour,thesecountriesareachievinglevelsofproductivity—and

thereforeofconsumption—thataregraduallyclosingthegapwithdeveloped

regions.Theresultisgrowingpressureontheglobalsupplyoffood,mineraland

energyresources,ontheonehand,andthemigrationofjobs,peopleand

investmentsfrom NorthtoSouth,ontheotherhand.Thedownsideofthis

phenomenonissplashedovernewspaperheadlines:foodriots,backlashes

againstforeignworkersandbruisingcompetitionforaccesstoincreasinglyscarce

resources,temporarilyhaltedduetothepresentdownturn.

Undersuchchallengingcircumstances,leadersandentrepreneursinemergingand

developingregionshavebeguntoaskanumberofpointedquestions:

(1)Willrichcountriesacceptgloballysanctionedsolutionsthatinvolve

430   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

alteringtheglobalbalanceofpower?

(2)Willthey,forexample,supportsupranationalsupervisionoftheir

financialmarketsand,inthecaseoftheUSA,avoidabusingthestatusofthe

dollarasaninternationalreservecurrency?Onlyinthiswaywillitbepossibleto

avoidthe massivefinancialimbalancesthat madefor massivespeculative

bubbles.This wouldallow,complementarily,thecontainmentofequally

monumentalgrowthinexportsfromdevelopingcountriesaspartofastrategyto

amasscurrencyreservestoprotectthemselvesagainstunpredictableassetand

currencyfluctuations.

(3)WilldevelopedcountriesloosentheirstrangleholdovertheBrettonWoods

institutions,whileatthesametimemakingavailabletoboththeIMFandtheWorld

Banktheresourcesnecessarytofinancetheemergencyandlongtermrequirementsof

poorregions?Onlythuswillincreasinglycomplexandriskyfinancialproductsin

maturemarketsbediscouragedinfavouroffosteringinvestmentinhighreturn

developingmarkets,wheregrowthismosturgentlyneeded.

(4)Willtheyagreetocovertheretoolingcostsrequiredforemerging

countriestochangeovertolowcarbontechnologiesandthusboosttheir

populationsprosperitywithoutdamagingtheglobalenvironment?Inother

words,areindustrialisedcountries—whichlaunchedglobalwarmingovertwo

centuriesago—readytopaythegreaterpartofthebillforrenovatingtheworlds

environmentunfriendlyenergygrid?

(5)Finally,aretheypreparedtodoawaywithprotectionistpolicieslargely

responsiblefor makingagriculturalproductionin many Africancountries

unprofitable?Otherwise,theseregionswillremainindefinitelysubjecttothe

whimsofmarketpricesanddonorgenerosity.Willtheyremoveimporttariffson

ethanolgrownindevelopingcountriesandthusallowclean,renewableandcheap

energysourcestocomeonstream withtheadded bonusofgenerating

employmentinpoordevelopingregions?

Theanswertothesequestionswilldeterminethelikelihoodofusmoving

awayfromaproductionsystemthatissowastefulandyetcondemnsmillionsthe

worldovertosubhumanlivingconditions.Asolutionmustbefound,insum,to

theproblemofhowtodistributemoreequitablytheinevitablecostsofreversing

economicandenvironmentaldegradationthataffectseveryone.

7.犐狀狀狅狏犪狋犻狏犲犆狅犪犾犻狋犻狅狀狊

Atatimewhenanewsharingofresponsibilitiesandobligationsiscalled

for,multilateralinstitutionshaveneverbeenmorenecessary.However,they

China,theEUandLatinAmerica:TrilateralRelationsandScopeforMultilateralism 431  

haveneverbeensodeficientandsoincapableinofferingleadershipandguidance.

Weliveamidstnewandgrowingthreats,suchasglobalwarming,international

terrorism,intrastateviolenceandnowfinancialcollapse.Butoldchallenges

suchasdisarmament,widespreadhungerandpovertyremainunanswered.What

isworse,manyoftheseproblemsaremutuallyreinforcing.Armstrafficking,

forexample,drainsresourcesfromthefightagainsthungerinpoorcountries,

whileatthesametimestoking civil warsthataggravate poverty and

deforestation.

Whatmodicumofprogresshasbeenachievedonmanyoftheseissuesis

oftencentredinareasinwhichspecificcoalitionsoflikemindeddeveloping

countrieshavebeenabletoworktogetheraroundsharplyhonedagendaswith

clearcutgoals.An“axisofgood”isevolving.

ThemostnotableoftheseisdoubtlesstheG20atthe WorldTrade

Organization (WTO). Representing 22 per cent of world agricultural

production,over70percentoffarmersand60percentoftheplanets

population,itsarrivalonthescenehasensured,attheveryleast,thatno

furtherWTOtradedistortingagreementswillbefoistedonfarmersinLatin

America,AfricaandAsia.

Piecemealreviewofintellectualpropertyprotectionclauseshasalsobeen

achieved,underpressurefromdevelopingcountries,manywithnascentdrug

industries.AsaresultofadecisionbytheWTOin2001ontheAgreementon

TradeRelatedAspectsofIntellectualProperty Rights (TRIPS)onPublic

Health,patentrightsandtheaccruingprofitsofpharmaceuticalsnolonger

automaticallytrumppublicwelfarepolicyandgeneralaccesstocheapgeneric

drugs,asinthecaseofantiretroviralsinAIDStreatments.Furthermore,rich

countriesagreedtohelpfundgenericdrugsprogrammesinpoorcountries.Here

againisapolicytoempowerdevelopingcountriestohelpthemselves.

Nowhereistheneedforareviewofthegroundrulesgoverninginternational

relationsmoreobviousthanindevelopmentfinancing.Atpresent,abattleis

beingwagedfortheheartandsouloftheBretton Woodsinstitutions,as

developingcountriesdemandaccesstoadequatefundingforinfrastructural

investmentsrequiredforlongterm growthandjobcreation.Theendto

hereditaryclaimsonthetoppostattheIMF,whichgoestoEuropeans,andat

theWorldBank,whichgoestoAmericans,isafirstandnecessarystepin

ensuringthatemergingeconomieshaveagreatersayindecisionmakingand

thereforeagreaterwillingnesstocontributehumanandmaterialresourcesto

helpmaketheseinstitutionsworkeffectively.

AsharedcommitmenttoopenandsoundgovernmentisbehindtheIndia,

432   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

BrazilandSouthAfricaDialogueForum(IBSA).Itencouragescooperationona

widerangeoftrade,security,scienceandtechnologyissuesbetweencountries

withleadershipcredentialsintheirregions,whichhappentobethethreelargest

democraciesinthedevelopingworld.IBSAhassetupafundwithintheUnited

NationsDevelopmentProgrammetoidentifyandfinancegoodpracticesin

education,healthandbasicsanitationprojectsinpoorcountriesineachregion.

TheBRICs—Brazil,Russia,IndiaandChina—constituteafurtherexample

ofmajoremergingeconomiesworkingtogethertoencouragereviewofthe

buildingblocksoftheinternationalsystem as weknowit.Theirjoint

communiquéleading uptothe G20 Summitin Londonlast April was

instrumentalinmovingaheadthedebateonaBrettonWoodsII.

South Americanintegration providesaregionalplatform for global

negotiationson manyoftheissuesmentionedabove.Furthermore,trade,

financingandinfrastructureinitiativeswhichareunderwaytoovercomeregional

socialandeconomicdisparities,alsoofferausefulsoundingboardforinnovative

proposalsontheglobalstage.

ThepoliticalgroundworkformuchofthishasbeenencouragedbytheSouth

AmericaArabCountriesSummit(Brasilia,2005;Doha,2009),andtheSouth

AmericaAfricaSummit(Abuja,2006).Thesearethefirstlargeinternational

meetingsinrecentmemoryoutsidetheregularscheduleoftheUnitedNations

aimedatjoininglargeblocksofdevelopingcountries.Bysettinguptransatlantic

partnerships,spanningmajorgeographical,culturalandpoliticalpoles,these

initiativeshavehelpedtoreinforceasenseofcommonpurposeandforged

commitment.

Cooperationprogrammesrangefromimprovementsinmanioccultivationin

theislandnationofSoToméandPrincipetosettingupapharmaceuticalplant

forAidsdrugsinMozambique.Bytakingpartindevelopmentschemesand

technicalcooperationprojectsaimedatcapacitybuilding,Brazilseeksto

contributetothe New Partnershipfor Africas Development (NEPAD).

“Africanownership”,asAfricansproudlycallit,takestheformofspecific

commitmentson questionsofadministrativetransparency and democratic

practices,humanrightsprotectionandpriorityinvestmentineducationand

health.These undertakings and attendant oversight schemes offer an

encouragingframeworkforattractingmuchneededinternationalcooperationand

longtermforeigninvestment.

Thisprocessofdomesticreformismatchedattheregionallevelbythe

creationoftheAfricanUnion(AU)whichreplacedthelonglivedOrganization

ofAfricanUnity.Theinstitutionalchangesinvolvedreflectanewwillingnesson

China,theEUandLatinAmerica:TrilateralRelationsandScopeforMultilateralism 433  

thepartofmuchofAfricasleadershiptoactinconcerttooutlaw military

adventurisminthecontinent.TheAUhasprovidedsupport,directlyorviasub

regionalsecurityandcooperationarrangements,topeacekeepingandpeace

buildingmissions.Brazilhasbeenactivelyengaged,inparticularthroughthe

CommunityofPortugueseLanguageCountries (CPLP),inthecontinents

effortstomeettherequirementsofpostconflictreconstructionandreconciliation

inAngola,GuineaBissau,SoToméandPríncipe,andtheDemocraticRepublic

oftheCongo,whereBraziltookpartinthe2003peacekeeping mission

coordinatedbytheEuropeanUnion.

Brazilsdeterminationtoshowthatsecurityanddevelopmentmustgohand

inhandisbestdisplayedin Haiti.Theinternationalcommunityfacesthe

challengeofputtinginplaceanambitiousmixofeconomic,socialandsecurity

policiestohelpthecountrytograduallyedgebackfromendemicinstability.

BrazilsdecisiontoacceptthechallengeofleadingthemilitaryarmoftheUN

mandatedstabilisingmissiontoHaiti(MINUSTAH)wasmotivatedbyadesire

tohelpdevelopandapplyintegratedpoliciestodealwiththemultipronged

challengesbesettingcountriesunderthethreatofbecomingfailedstates.

Therefore,Brazillobbiedstronglyforeconomicandsocialgoalstotakecentre

stageinthepeaceoperationsinEastTimorandGuineaBissau.

Possiblythemostinnovativeandpotentiallyfarreachingofthesecoalitions

istheInternationalActionPlanagainstHungerandExtremePoverty,launched

byBrazil,ChileandFrancein2004.AnonsectarianfusionoftheDavosand

PortoAlegreagendas,3itoffersaframeworkforcivilsocietytoengagemore

directlyin raising the resources necessary to achieve the Millennium

DevelopmentGoals.Oneofitsmostmeaningfuloutcomessofarhasbeenthe

settingupoftheInternationalDrugPurchaseFacility(UNITAID),bringing

togetherdonorsfromallcontinentstohelpfinancethefightagainstAidsand

“poorpeoplesdiseases”,suchasmalariaandtuberculosis.

8.犜狉犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犕狌犾狋犻犾犪狋犲狉犪犾犻狊犿牶犅狉犪狕犻犾狊犆狅狀狋狉犻犫狌狋犻狅狀

Theseinitiativescollectivelyformwhatonemightcalla“coalitionofthe

willing”amongcountriesoftheGlobalSouthactingascatalystsforreformof

globalgovernance.Suchadhocpartnershipscanserveasnecessarybuilding

blocksingraduallybuildingconsensusamongdevelopingcountriesforchangeon

apparentlyintractableissueshavingtodowithsustainablegrowthandpoverty

eradication.Thisisnottosaythatthereisnoroomforcooperationwithadvanced

economies.Quitethecontrary,thepresentglobalcrisishasunderscoredthatlong

lastingsolutionstothechallengeofgrowinginterdependencearepossibleonlywithina

434   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

multilateralframework.Butalltoooften,theconstraintsoflargenumbersand

overwhelmingshortterm prioritiescanderailgoodfaithattemptsatreconciling

positions.Byproposingnegotiatedchangetounsustainableandoutdatedmodelsand

structures,thesecoalitionscanreachovertheNorthSouthdivideandhelpmusterthe

requiredconsensusforachievingmultilateralbreakthroughs.

Trilateraldialogueandcooperationprojectscanplayameaningfulrolein

generatingpracticalresults,aswellashelpingtobuildupgoodwill.Onmanyof

theissuesmentionedabove,whichtouchoncriticalchallengesfacingthe

internationalcommunity,thereisampleroomforjointaction,giventhatboth

ChinaandtheEuropeanUnionarekeenactorsinallofthesetheatres.Butan

effectivetrilateralforumrequiresameasurabledegreeofpoliticalconvergence.

ThisexistsbetweenLatinAmericaandtheEUonculturalandhumanrights

issues,forexample,butislimitedontrade,asshownbydifficultiesin

negotiatingbiregionaltradeagreements.Ontheotherhand,thereissignificant

agreementbetween Latin Americaand Chinaontradeandenvironmental

matters,butnotnecessarilyonothers.

Ratherthanaimingforabsolutelycoincidentpositions,effortsshouldgo

intoopeninguproomforgradualconvergence.Someforums,whilenotstrictly

trilateral,mayhelpingeneratingtheinstitutionalbackdropforcommonaction

andcloserties.ThisisthecasewithregardtotheForumforEastAsianand

LatinAmericanCooperation(FEALAC).Similarly,theRioGroupboastsan

institutionaliseddialoguewithbothChinaandtheEU,providingausefulstaging

groundforthreewayexchanges.Equally,IBSA,bringingtogetherIndia,Brazil

andSouthAfrica,isanexampleofhowtofostertrilateralactivities,giventhe

sponsorshipofpovertyalleviationmeasuresincountriesinAfrica,LatinAmerica

andSouthEastAsia.

Allofferopportunitiesforspilloverintobilateralagendas,whichare

especiallyimportantformanyLatinAmericancountrieswithlimitedscopefor

activeinitiativesfarbeyondtheirimmediateneighbourhood.

Ontheenvironment,forexample,thereareobviousopportunitiesfor

developingsuchpartnerships.Inbiofuels,Brazilwishestoseeitsmodelof

sugarcanebasedethanolusedtopromotesustainableagricultureindeveloping

countriesandtohelpusmovetoagloballowcarboneconomy.Giventhat

China,ontheonehand,wishestoreduceitsoildependency,whiletheEuropean

Commissionrecentlysetaunilateralgoalofreducinggreenhousegasemissions

by20percentby2020,thereisampleroomforjointworkonclean,cheapand

sustainablealternativefuels.Ontheotherhand,Brazilsmodelfordeforestation

controlhasbeeninternationallyacclaimed,asindicatedbyNorwaysUSD1

China,theEUandLatinAmerica:TrilateralRelationsandScopeforMultilateralism 435  

billionpledgeoveratenyearperiodtotheAmazonFund,setupbytheBrazilian

governmenttoprovideincentivesforsustainablemanagementoftropicalforests.

HopefullythiscouldhelpbreakthelogjamintheCopenhagenConference,as

Brazilshowsonewayfordevelopingcountriestoengageconstructivelyin

preservingtheenvironment,giventherightfinancialandinstitutionalbacking.

Brazilsalreadymentionedaerospacecooperationonsatellitemonitoringwith

bothFranceandChinacouldbeapowerfulcomplementtotheseefforts.

OntheMonterreyagenda,itistobehopedthatthejointpositionadopted

bytheBRICsonreformoftheBrettonWoodsinstitutionswillhelptoovercome

Europeanresistancetospeedierchange.Ontheotherhand,LatinAmerican,EU

andChinesesupportduringtheLondon G20Summitfor morestringent

internationaloversightoffinancialinstitutionsshouldequallyhelpbringtheUSA

onboardonthiscontentiousissue.

Ontradeissues,LatinAmerican,ChineseandEUsupportfortheproposalonthe

tabletoconcludetheDohaRoundcanbeinstrumentalinbringingroundtheUSAand

India,whichweredirectlyresponsibleforthefailuretoclinchadealin2008.

Ultimately,onlybyfindingcommongroundfor mutuallysustainable

developmentitwillbepossibletorebalanceglobalgrowthinamannerthatis

trulysustainable,toavoidassetbubblesandtoallowalltobenefitfromthe

prosperitythatglobalisationcanmultiply.Asglobalisationandinterdependence

steadilyandinexorablyadvance,thechallengeoffindingcreativeandinnovative

opportunitiesfordialogueandpartnershipsthatbridgegeography,cultureand

historyhasbecomeanimperativeofthehighestorderjoiningLatinAmerica,

ChinaandtheEuropeanUnion.

Notes

1.TheRioGroupwasbornin1986asaforumforLatinAmericanandCaribbeandialogueon

majorregionalquestionsaffectingregionalsecurityanddevelopment.

2.TheIberianprocesscouldclaimuntilquiterecentlytobetheonlyLatinAmericanand

CaribbeanforuminwhichCubahadaseat.ThischangedinDecember2008,whenCuba

joinedtheRioGroup.

3.TheWorldSocialForum,knownasthePortoAlegreForum,wassetupasacounterpoint

totheWorldEconomicForum,heldyearlyatDavos.Commonlyassociatedwiththeanti

globalisationmovement,thePortoAlegreForumbringstogetherNGOsandothercivil

societyactorstodiscussissuesrelatedtoglobalgovernance.

436   !

犃犫狅狌狋狋犺犲犆狅狀狋狉犻犫狌狋狅狉狊

作 者 简 介

WelberBarral,SecretaryofInternationalTrade,BrazilianMinistryofDevelop

ment,IndustryandForeignTrade(MDIC),Brasilia

韦尔贝尔·巴拉尔,巴西发展、工业和贸易部国际贸易秘书,巴西利亚

Arno Behrens, Research Fellow, Centre for European Policy Studies

(CEPS),Brussels

阿诺·贝伦斯,欧洲政策研究中心研究员,布鲁塞尔

KarlBuck,FormerHeadofRelationswithLatinAmericaandCaribbean,EU

CouncilofMinisters,Brussels

卡尔·巴克,欧盟部长理事会拉美与加勒比关系部前主任,布鲁塞尔

CarlosCarvalloSpalding,EconomicAdvisor,MERCOSURSecretariat,Monte

video

卡洛斯·卡瓦罗·斯伯丁,南方共同市场秘书处经济顾问,蒙特维多

MarcelFortunaBiato,Ambassador,ForeignPolicyAdvisorGrouptothePresi

dent,Brasilia

马塞尔·福尔图纳·比亚托,巴西总统外交政策顾问组成员、大使,巴西利亚

JiangShixue,ProfessorandDeputyDirector,InstituteofEuropeanStudies,

ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences,Beijing江时学,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所副所长、教授,北京

BirteKlemm,ResearchFellow,FriedrichEbertStiftung,OfficeforInternation

alCooperation,Shanghai

AbouttheContributors("#$%) 437  

克敏,弗里德里希·艾伯特基金会国际合作办公室研究员,上海

LuGuozheng,FormerDiplomattoSpanishspeakingcountriesandChiefEditor

ofthejournal犆犺犻狀犪狊犐狀狋犲狉狀犪狋犻狅狀犪犾犜狉犪犱犲,MinistryofCommerce,Beijing卢国正,中国前驻西语国家外交官,《中国国际贸易》主编,中国商务部,北京

GüntherMaihold,DeputyDirector,GermanInstituteforInternationalandSecu

rityAffairs(SWP)andProfessorattheInstituteforLatinAmericaStudies,

FreeUniversityofBerlin,Berlin

甘瑟·麦霍尔德,德国国际与安全事务研究所副所长、柏林自由大学拉美研究所

教授,柏林

NiuHaibin,ResearchFellowandAssistantDirector,InstituteforInternational

StrategicStudies,ShanghaiInstitutesforInternationalStudies,Shanghai

牛海彬,中国上海国际问题研究院国际战略研究所所长助理、助理研究员,上海

GustavoRibeiro,DirectorofRulesandCompetitivenessinForeignTrade(DE

NOC)SecretariatofForeignTrade(SECEX),Brasilia

古斯塔沃·里贝罗,巴西对外贸易秘书处对外贸易规则与竞争部主任,巴西利亚

ErikaRuizSandoval,VisitingProfessorandResearcher,DivisionofInternation

alStudies,CentrodeInvestigaciónyDocenciaEconómicas(CIDE),MexicoCity艾丽卡·鲁伊兹·桑多瓦尔,经济研究和教学中心国际研究部研究员和访问教

授,墨西哥城

JoséAntonioSanahuja,ProfessorofInternationalRelationsandHeadoftheDe

partmentofDevelopmentCooperation,ComplutenseInstituteofInternational

Studies(ICEI),Madrid

何塞·安东尼奥·萨纳乌哈,孔普鲁德赛国际关系研究所发展合作部主任、国际

关系教授,马德里

MaríaCristinaSilvaParejas,SeniorExpertforRegionalIntegrationProcesses/

EuropeanLatinAmericanandCaribbeanRelations,LatinAmericanCentrefor

RelationswithEurope,Santiago

玛丽亚·克里斯蒂娜·西瓦·帕雷哈斯,拉美对欧关系研究中心欧拉关系和地区

一体化进程的资深研究员,圣地亚哥

SunHongbo,ResearchFellow,InstituteofLatinAmericanStudies,Chinese

438   China,theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation

AcademyofSocialSciences,Beijing孙洪波,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所助理研究员,北京

YuHongyuan,AssociateProfessorandDeputyDirector,CentreofInternational

OrganizationsandLaws,ShanghaiInstitutesforInternationalStudies,Shanghai

于宏源,中国上海国际问题研究院国际组织与国际法中心副主任、副研究员,上海