Can Twitter Predict the Result of Electoral Contests
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Poden les xarxes socials predir els resultats electorals? Can Twitter Predict Electoral Contests? Frederic Guerrero-Solé #6N2014
Transcript of Can Twitter Predict the Result of Electoral Contests
Poden les xarxes socials predir els resultats electorals?Can Twitter Predict Electoral Contests?
Frederic Guerrero-Solé#6N2014
Big Data and the All ParadigmThe end of the 3 S: Samples, Surveys and related Statistics
Social Networks as providers of ALL
However , Is All in Social Networks, can we ask All and answer All?
Introduction
The Google Flu Trends
Introduction
The Google Flu Trends
Introduction
What about Politics, and Electoral Contests?
Introduction
Attempts to predict electoral results using Twitter dataTumasjan, Sprenger, Sandner, and Welpe (2010)Number of party mentions can be considered a reflection of the vote share.
HoweverJungherr, Jürgens, and Schoen (2011) Refuted these results. Reported Opacity of method of collecting tweets, the arbitrariness of the sample and the time window selected, concluding that mentions cannot be considered a predictor of the election results.
How did you do it, in #7Steps?
@guerrerosolef: using TAGS, looking for samples #step1
How did you do it?
@guerrerosolef: choosing #25N for a neutral discussion #step2
How did you do it?
@guerrerosolef: development of a SNA software to process and analyze data #step3
How did you do it?
How did you do it?
How did you do it?
How did you do it?
@guerrerosolef: Assumed power law distribution, homophily andretweeting as a form of endorsement #step4
How did you do it?
@guerrerosolef: Calculated the overlaps between the communities of retweeters #step5
How did you do it?
@guerrerosolef: Classified users #citizens #politicians #media and journalists #step6
How did you do it?
@guerrerosolef: Compared our results with those of CIS #step7
How did you do it?
@guerrerosolef: Belief in the statistical signification of correlations #step7
Also...
@guerrerosolef: We were able to predict#PoliticalPolarization#UsersPoliticalLeaning#JournalistsPerceivedPoliticalLeaning
#7Conclusions
@guerrerosolef: Not All but Limited predictions paradigm. Researchers have to refine their questions and be creative #conclusion1
Conclusion
@guerrerosolef: Social Networks can provide answers... to good (not obvious) questions, every sample can lead to new predictions #conclusion2
Conclusion
@guerrerosolef: samples must fit the purposes of the research #conclusion3
Conclusion
@guerrerosolef: the path to significant outcomes is full of bias #conclusion4
Conclusion
@guerrerosolef: Researchers have to find ways to compare results with those of real world #conclusion5
Conclusion
@guerrerosolef: the evolution of Social Networks and Predictive Analytics will shape the way we can predict outcomes such as electoral contests #conclusion6
Conclusion
@guerrerosolef: Capacity to collect, process and analyze data as a new source for knowledge gap #conclusion7
Thank you!
Frederic Guerrero-SoléTaula de Nova Recerca@guerrerosolef
