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BULLETIN OF INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY ...
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Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ Jhar ‘The Storm’ 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BULLETIN OF INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, KOLKATA CHAPTER YEAR :2012 NO. 1
BULLETIN OF INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, KOLKATA CHAPTER YEAR :2012 NO. 1
EDITORIAL BOARD:
Editor:
Prof. Utpal Kumar De (LM-520)
Assistant Editor:
Dr. Mridul Bose (LM-1760)
Members:
Prof. Dilip Kumar Khan (LM-1843)
Dr. Kamal Krishna Basu (LM-1757)
Mr. Devendra Pradhan (LM-617)
PUBLICATION COMMITTEE:
Secretary (Publication):
Mr. Utpal Bhattacherjee (LM-1294)
Members:
Mr. Anirban Biswas (LM-1734)
Mr. Sourav Debnath (LM-1690)
Mr. Tapas Kumar Ghoshal (LM-1699)
Mr. Durgadas Banerjee (LM-1748)
Mr. Asit Kumar Sinha (LM-1732)
Mr. Swarup Kumar Chakravorty (LM-1791)
Page 6 Henry Piddington: The Forgotten Forerunner A.K. Sen Sarma
Page 9 Storm Surge: The Most Dangerous Natural Hazard Subir K. Ghosh & Srabanti Ballav
Page 14 On The Question of Global Warming Kumaresh Mitra
Page 19 Importance of Fuzzy Logic in Weather Forecasting Dr. Sarbari Ghosh
Page 20 A General Discussion on The Role of Different Meteorological Parameters Related with the Pre-Monsoon Weather over Eastern Region of India Dr. Kamal Krishna Basu
Page 21 Study of Norwesters using Doppler Weather Radar Devendra Pradhan
Page 24 Nor’westers of Bengal: Redefined as Mesoscale Convective Systems Debasish Lohar
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ABOUT IMS
The Indian Meteorological Society (IMS) was formed in 1956 during one of the sessions of Indian Science Congress in Calcutta. Dr. S. Basu, then Director General of Observatories had the honour of being the first President of the Society. It was registered as a Society under the Societies Registration Act on 26th May, 1972 under the Presidentship of Dr. P. Koteswaram. The Registration No. of the Society is 5403 and its registered office is at New Delhi.
IMS NATIONAL COUNCIL (2011-2013) President: Dr.S.R.Nayak (LM-311) Vice President: Dr.P.C.Joshi (LM-64) AVM(Dr.) Ajit Tyagi (LM-716) Secretary: Dr.K.J.Ramesh (LM-152) Joint Secretary: Dr.S.C.Bhan (LM-672) Treasurer: Dr.K.K.Singh (LM-172) Council Members: Prof.U.C.Mohanty (LM-107) Dr.Rajkumar (LM-230)
Dr.A.K.Srivastava (LM-934) Dr.Milind Majumdar (LM-1600) Dr.D.Pradhan (LM-617) Dr.M. Satya Kumar (LM-115) Dr. Akhilesh Gupta (LM-159) Dr. D.R.Pattanaik (LM-992)
IMS KOLKATA CHAPTER EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE (2011-2013) Chairman: Mr. Sanjay Narayan Roy (LM-1701) Secretary: Mr. Devendra Pradhan (LM-617) Joint Secretary: Mr. Utpal Bhattacherjee (LM-1294) Treasurer: Mr. Tarun Kanti Ray (LM-1703) Members: Dr. Kamal Krishna Basu (LM-1757) Prof.(Mrs.) Sutapa Choudhury (LM-New) Prof. Dilip Kumar Khan (LM-1843) Dr. Gakul Chandra Debnath (LM-1295) Mr. Anirban Biswas (LM-1734) Mr. Sourav Debnath (LM-1690) Mr. Mrinal Kanti Pal Ray (LM-New) Mr. Durga Das Banerjee (LM-1748) Auditor: Mr. Tapas Kumar Ghoshal (LM-1699)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cover images:
Clockwise from left: (i) Doppler Weather Radar Product (Cyclone SIDR), (ii) NWP Product (IMD GFS MSLP Analysis), (iii) IMD Kalpana-1 Satellite Image (ASI Composite), iv) IMD Satellite Image (Cloud Motion Wind) Centre Image: Cyclonic Storms in Separate Hemispheres (Courtesy: NOAA) Satellite image over the Indian Ocean shows co-occurring typhoons, Thane in the northern hemisphere on shore in India and Benilde over Open Ocean in the southern hemisphere. This rare line up of storms shows that storms in the northern hemisphere rotate counter-clockwise, while southern hemisphere storms rotate clockwise. This image was taken by METEOSAT-7 at 0530Z on December 30, 2011.
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FROM THE DESK OF THE CHAIRMAN, EDITORIAL BOARD
Members of the Indian Meteorological Society, Kolkata chapter may feel elated to see that Jhar ‘The Storm’ has reappeared after quite some years. ‘Jhar’ in Bengali means strong wind. Many a time, strong wind in real life may not be a welcome event, but appearance of the journal ‘Jhar’ will surely be welcome by all. In the meantime, some members of the society are not liking this name. Firstly, because the name represents only a section of atmospheric events, whereas the scope of the journal is wider and much broader. We welcome any article dealing or connected with atmosphere. Many people might think, as if the journal deals with only strong wind. Secondly, the name is associated with destruction in majority of the cases, where as our aim is surely constructive in nature.
In spite of various criticisms, I shall write some lines below stressing the role of strong wind in this region of the world. Gangetic West Bengal (GWB) is a region which is visited by all sorts of atmospheric systems and in that sense it is a unique region in India. We have unique Nor’westers during the pre-monsoon season, which are associated with wind squall in almost half of the cases (Patra and De, 1997). Here I should define a wind squall for the convenience of general readers. As per World Meteorological Organization notification (WMO, 2008), in order to be called a wind squall wind must rise by 3 stages in Beaufort scale and the magnitude must reach at least 22 Knots or 11.3 meters/ sec to last for at least one minute. Apart from that, it must be associated with temperature drop, pressure rise, direction shift and rain may or may not be present (Colmer, 1971; Goff, 1976). Appearance of wind squall after long stretch of hot summer weather is surely a very pleasant and welcome event, though many a time it causes sufficient destruction. Apart from a comfortable weather for at least a day or two, it brings, in general,
much needed water when everything goes dry. So, research work on Nor’westers of this region has a long tradition starting from 1920s. Besides the Nor’westers, we have other form of thunderstorm developments during the pre-monsoon season and gust from the downdraft of any thunderstorm always produces strong wind. Some of the developments are isolated, some are propagating from the Bay side and also there are meso-scale convective systems. For long time researchers concentrated on the study of different case studies, development of indices and also making various classifications. But, the prediction of developments started from 1990-s. Approach is being done mainly along two lines. One is using different statistical methodologies and the other is using meso-scale numerical models. Observational study has also gathered momentum after installation of Doppler Weather Radar at Kolkata and with the availability of various satellite data. Now, scope of study of atmospheric systems is tremendous and it is expected to widen up further in near future. At this stage I should point out a great limitation in the pre-monsoon weather study of this region. Thunderstorm is basically an event associated with huge charge separation within a cloud in a span of 10-15 minutes. An electric field of the order of million Volts / meter is created. But, not a single electric field meter is active here to study the nature of electric field variation. Lightning is part and parcel of any thunderstorm, but not a single lightning detector operates in this region. In case of tall thunderclouds, large amount of charge (sprites) propagates towards the ionosphere and there is interaction with the ionosphere. But, research activity is almost nil here to understand the behaviour of these sprites. Another wonderful but terrible formation of this region is tornado, It is a
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strongly rotating system of a few kilometer diameter and wind speed may reach a speed of a few hundreds of kilometers per hour. Though it exists for short time and affects a small region, but in terms of destruction its fury is tremendous. Nothing remains unaffected in its path, most of the objects are lifted and smashed aside. Fortunately, it occurs here only once in five to ten years. After pre-monsoon season, comes the very important monsoon season. During this season, GWB plays an important role as one end of the monsoon trough passes through this region. Various cyclonic vorticity with strong wind exists in this season. Systems starting from deep depression have significant devastation power. In fact, if at least two or three depressions or stronger cyclonic systems do not visit GWB, normal rain of 1200 mm cannot be achieved. During pre-monsoon or post–monsoon season, the most feared cyclonic system with a core of hurricane wind (commonly called cyclone) may visit this region. Surely, the maximum devastation of the cyclone comes from the storm surge, but the second culprit for the devastation is wind, reaching at least a speed 64 Knots, pushing even the heavy precipitation at the third. We have a notion that the track of any cyclone will always shift towards either Orissa or Bangladesh and some how we will be saved. I should mention here some severe cyclones with landfall occurring over West Bengal. In October 1737, landfall of a cyclone
occurred at Sagar island and nearly three lakh people were killed. Surge water traveled one hundred Km along the Hoogly river. In 1864, land fall of a cyclone occurred at Contai and officially eighty thousand people perished. Storm surge height was above 12 meters and surge water passed 13 Km along Hoogly river. It reached up to Khidderpore dock and all anchored ships were crushed. Many old people have not forgotten the October 1942 cyclone at Midnapore. Officially fifteen thousand people were killed, but the actual figure was much higher. Devastating flood occurred over 250 sq. miles and wind speed attained a speed of 225 Km per hour. Apart from these, many other cyclones of lesser intensity had landfall over West Bengal. In this connection, we should recall the visit of a mild type cyclone (Ayala) in May, 2009 over this region passing almost towards north ward direction. Though the surge height was not so significant, large part of Sunderban was inundated with salty water. Incidentally, our state has not yet recovered from the impact of this cyclone. It may be that our predecessors in the previous committees thought about the importance of strong wind in this region and named the mouthpiece of our society accordingly. I have no intention to dishonour their sentiment.
Utpal Kumar De Chairman, Editorial Board
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FROM THE SECRETARY’S DESK
Indian Meteorological Society (IMS)
is one of the premier scientific societies in India, and it is a great honour to me to be elected as the Secretary of Kolkata Chapter of IMS. I take this opportunity to discuss a few relevant points and to interact with the esteemed members of our Chapter.
I have been associated with this Chapter for the last eight years as a member and also as an Executive Member for the last a few years. We know that IMS Kolkata Chapter touched the pinnacle of success in 2010 when we organized ‘Tropmet 2010’, the nationally acclaimed seminar, which every Chapter always strive to get a chance to organize, and with all your cooperation and support, we could manage to make it happen almost flawlessly.
The success of ‘Tropmet 2010’ eventually inspired me to get more and more involved in the regular activities of the Chapter, and I am grateful to all the members that they have chosen me as the Secretary of the Chapter for 2011-2013, I also admit proudly that my members have given me a fantastic team to work with.
Although ‘Tropmet 2010’ was a great success, the financial condition of the Chapter did not improve much, and the new office bearers were facing new challenges to run the regular activities of the Chapter. But our National Council came forward to rescue, and we received a lump sum grant of Rs.50000/-, to revive the financial condition of the Chapter. I express my sincere gratitude to the then National Council.
My dear members, I was honoured once again by your esteemed support and blessings that you bestowed on me, by virtue of which, I was recently elected as a member of IMS National Council for 2011-2013 term, and Kolkata Chapter is fortunate enough to have its representation in National Council for the consecutive terms, as Mr. Utpal
Bhattacherjee was a member in the outgoing National Council. As there is no quota of selection of members, and the process was entirely based on election, it is a very much welcome note for our Kolkata Chapter.
Meanwhile, we continuously carried out our scientific activities in form of lectures and invited talks, to mention of which we have included a couple of pages here, kindly have a look at the ‘Chapter Activities’ on pp.34-35. A lot of things are also in the pipeline, which I can assure, will happen during the next one year or two.
This Bulletin of IMS Kolkata Chapter, Jhar ‘The Storm’ came into light way back in the year 2001, and I have heard 2001-2002 was its golden age, when it was published regularly and even its collaborative efforts with other international meteorological societies fetched Jhar with a number articles / contributions of foreign authors. Later in some unavoidable circumstances, it became irregular, and eventually its publication stopped on economic grounds.
Our new committee, from the Day 1, had the obsession of the revival of Jhar ‘The Storm’, which we planned not only to publish regularly, but also make it more successful than it ever could be, and transform it to be a scientific journal. To pave its way, we constituted our ‘Editorial Board’, where eminent weather scientists were included. A fantastic support unit entitled ‘Publication Committee’ was set up. Our ‘Executive Committee’ is acting as an umbrella, rendering full coordination and all logistic support. The cumulative efforts of all these, actually revived our Jhar ‘The Storm’, which is on your hands right now.
Devendra Pradhan Secretary, IMS Kolkata Chapter
Jhar ‘The Storm’ Year: 2012 No.1
5
HENRY PIDDINGTON: THE FORGOTTEN FORERUNNER
A.K. Sen Sarma Retired Director
India Meteorological Department.
It had always been the fate of Field Scientists to be treated as poor cousins of Theoretical Scientists. On the top of it there is also a sort of caste hierarchy in scientific world; academics are deemed to belong to an elite caste, much above those in other professions, however important their work may be.
In Meteorology the fate of Henry Piddington is a perfect illustration of all these. In standard texts on Meteorology his name appears only as the person who coined the word ‘Cyclone’ for Tropical Revolving Storms. But what remains unsaid is the great scientific significance of the idea behind that innovative word and the stupendous and unimaginably painstaking work leading to it. No mention is made, either, of his other achievement - identification of a sea effect as the principal agent of destruction of Cyclones impacting on coast. (He has lately found a small place as a minor character in a story within the story of a hugely popular best selling novel, where the Indian author {Ghosh, 2004} has taken a lot of ‘poetic’ license with the facts.) ‘Revolving’ storms had been a scourge of seafarers in tropical seas the world over from time immemorial. Abundant references are found in traditional lores like Sinbad stories of Arabian Nights, Chand Saudagar stories of Bengal right up to modern day Srikanta of Saratchandra. However efforts to understand the phenomenon can be said to have started in mid 17th century with a German geographer describing these as ‘whirlwinds’. By the first quarter of 19th century most of the surface features of these storms had been identified (unraveling its upper air structure had to wait till upper air observations were available). It was also established that these were traveling
weather systems with an associated wind circulation around a central region. Their energy source was also correctly postulated. But the most important unknown was the scheme of its wind circulation by which this energy is transmitted from the large area covered by it to the central region, where major activities are concentrated.
Two contending theories were being hotly debated. One school held its wind flow to be tangential i.e., moving in concentric circles; the other postulated it to be radial i.e., flowing towards a common centre from all directions. All observations had confirmed that the wind direction at different sectors of the affected area was different. This could happen only if the flow was either tangential or radial. Bitter controversy raged between proponents of the two, sometimes descending even to personal slandering. However neither of the two could satisfactorily explain the well established evolution of these storms. The difficulty was that with a tangential flow the storm won’t have any energy to grow, whereas with a radial flow there will be too much of energy. This was a great bottleneck in the understanding of how that infernal weather system sustains itself. It was Piddington who, by meticulous analysis of data collected through dogged perseverance, could establish that the wind circulation in Cyclones is a mixture of the two – it is “involutes of a spiral curve”, as he put it.
A disenchanted seaman from mercantile marine based at Calcutta, Piddington had taken up shore jobs sometime in late 1820’s to devote his spare time to engage in his pet passion, diverse scientific enquiries. From 1829 onwards he had been regularly publishing results of these endeavours in the Journal of the Asiatic
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Society of Bengal (referred henceforth only as the Journal). Up to 1836 there were six such, fascinating in the variety of the subjects, but none of maritime interest. Then something happened which brought his attention back to the sea.
In 1838 came out a book, An attempt to develop the Law of Storms, by one Col. William Reid (publisher John Weale, London). An army engineer, he was tasked to rebuild a Caribbean port ravaged by a cyclonic storm. He was so moved by the demonic destructions that he devoted himself in studying this natural hazard. He compiled in this seminal book all, the then, known features of Cyclones.(Incidentally, he had earned his mention in cyclone literature by virtue of his vigorous correspondence with one of the US academics, votary of ‘tangential’ wind circulation in cyclones, who acknowledged the value of his inputs). Notices of the book “in Calcutta papers and in Edinburgh Review” brought back to Piddington memory of “one instance in which to the veering of Hurricane (a local name for Cyclones) alone I owed my safety from shipwreck…” Realising the importance of such studies in helping the seafarers to negotiate encounters with these perils, Piddington shifted his attention to Cyclones.
His new endeavour involved: “tedious and sometimes repulsive” (his own words) “labour of procuring from the unwilling, the dilatory or the diffident [ships’ captains] copies of their logs and notes, or replies to what must, to many have appeared … troublesome and useless queries”. ( Only the Meteorological Inspectors assigned to check the correctness of barometer readings of ships arriving at ports will be able to empathise readily with his ordeal.) Between 1839 and 1844 he communicated to the Journal ten ‘memoirs’ of his analysis of these data. Using his early seafaring experience to great effect he also published a booklet summarizing those aspects in a way that would help navigation around these hazards.
Then, in 1845, there happened a fortuitous accident that helped solve the riddle of wind circulation of Cyclones. In February that year, a ship got entangled in the circulation
of a Cyclone in south Indian Ocean for five days. It was forced round and round the storm centre five times at an approximate distance of “about 50 miles” (80 km) from it. But it used its predicament to good use, it kept a meticulous log. Realising the immense important of these records Piddington moved mountains to promptly obtain copies of these. He was a believer of radial theory but was also vaguely aware of its inadequacy. Careful analysis of the inner circulation of the Cyclone from these logs revealed beyond any doubt that they “have been involutes of a spiral curve”, a mixture of both tangential and radial motions. It became clear that though the tangential component dominates the flow it is the little incurving that provide the radial component essential for the evolution of the storm. With boundless elation Piddington communicated his findings in his eleventh memoir to the Journal by first half of 1845. In 1848 he summarized all the results of his investigations that far “in sailor language” in a book titled The sailor’s hornbook for the Law of Storms ( published by Smith & Elder, London) along with practical tips to face cyclone encounters. It was an instant hit and remained so for almost next half century. He continued his studies on Cyclones and published fourteen more memoirs till he died in 1858.
It is indeed difficult, at this 21st century level of scientific progress, to appreciate the value of that breakthrough more than a century and a half ago at the infancy of Meteorology. We must also remember that it was long before there existed, even in western home of science, any official organization collecting oceanic data. It required dogged perseverance on the part of Piddington to accumulate a vast amount of ships’ logs and detailed information from different ship captains who, as yet unable to understand his aims, were not always complaisant or even civil. There was absolutely no mechanical aid either and every operation had to be done manually and single-handedly. His first, and last, recognition came in the end of nineteenth century when a Meteorologist in India (Blanford, 1889) offered felicitation by declaring that Piddington “Laid the foundation of our knowledge of the storms of Indian seas
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through his spontaneous and patient labour”. However even he omitted to mention that it was Piddington who first identified the principal agent of destruction of land falling Tropical Cyclones.
Till then Cyclones were viewed only as the main hazard in tropical waters, and their manifestations at sea were studied in detail. (The colonial powers were interested only in safeguarding their ships, vehicles of the exploitative trade). But Cyclones’ impact on land did not attract that much of scrutiny and it was taken for granted that its destructive power was packed in its wind. It was left to the analytical mind of Piddington, going through the descriptions of the ravages wrought by stronger cyclones from all corners of the globe, to identify the spectacular effects which bore unmistakable signs of invading giant mounds of sea water accompanying stronger cyclones. ‘Dismasted’ ships carried over the top of the coastal trees deep into the jungles inland (May, 1823), entire islands nearly depopulated by the sweep of the sea (April 1847, Laccadives; May 1833, Sagar Islands) thriving port completely
ravaged (1787, 1789, 1831 and 1839, Koringa) all were linked to the, then enigmatic, by-product of more intense storms over shallow coastal waters. Now termed Storm Surge, he named it Storm Wave and correctly surmised that it was a shore wave “but upon a very large scale”. He himself valued this identification of “the proofs of storm wave” at a par with his other contribution - “Ascertaining…the incurving of winds” in cyclones. He, however, failed to infer that the shore effect itself produces such “extraordinary upheaval”–hydrodynamics was not developed yet.
A field forecaster like this author can only feel dismayed at the lack of interest of theoretical meteorologists in crucial applicational aspects of their science to the extent of ignoring such important contributions. The best tribute to Piddington yet from the academics is a comment in a standard text as to “how apt was the derivation of the word cyclone” (Dunn and Miller, 1960) whenever they look at a radar or satellite picture of one. What a pity!
References:
Blanford,H.F. (1898) A practical guide to the Climate of India ,Ceylon and Burma and the
Storms of Indian Seas.,Macmillan, London.
Dunn, G.E. and Miller,B.I. (1960) Atlantic Hurricanes , Louisiana State University Press.
Ghosh, A. (2004) The Hungry Tide, Harper Collins, London.
Further Reading:
Sen Sarma, A.K. (1997) Henry Piddington (1797-1859) A bicentennial tribute,Weather,52.
Jhar ‘The Storm’ Year: 2012 No.1
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STORM SURGE: THE MOST DANGEROUS NATURAL HAZARD
Subir K. Ghosh1 and Srabanti Ballav2
1. Retired DDGM, IMD, and 23/15, Gariahat Road, Kolkata- 700029 2. School of Environmental Studies, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700032
Prelude Remarked the mayor of Kingston,
Jamaica “We all know about hurricanes since childhood, but nobody told us that there was danger from the sea. The concrete roof of a single storey house was detached by sea water, which rose from its normal position, and then floated away in front of my eyes”. He was referring to the devastations caused by a hurricane on the coastal areas in 1980.
1. Components
A hurricane in the Atlantic, Typhoon in the Pacific or severe cyclonic storm in the Indian Ocean in an extremely low pressure area with fierce winds surrounding its centre. It forms over tropical oceans and moves towards coasts where it causes immense destruction. It has the following three components: i) Storm Surge: This is abnormal rise of sea
level near the coast forced by a hurricane. The sea water breaches and also climbs over the coast and inundates vast areas inland.
ii) Strong Winds: A hurricane is associated with strong winds of speed of 64 knots or more. Obviously such strong winds destroy or inflict substantial damages to buildings and installations, such as, electrical, telephone poles and the like.
iii) Heavy Rain: Heavy rain is also caused by a hurricane resulting in flood. As mentioned above, any of the components can cause significant loss of life and property. However, when all the three combine there is enormous destruction. But the overwhelming factor is STORM SURGE. The enormity of devastation caused by storm surges may be fathomed from the fact that a single cyclonic storm took the toll of over 300000 human lives in Bangladesh in 1970, and of nearly 10,000
each in Orissa in 1971 and in Andhra Pradesh in 1977.
2. Storm surge generation
Storm surge is generated due to interaction of air, sea and land caused by a cyclonic storm moving over a continental shelf. The cyclonic storm provides the driving forces in the form of very high horizontal atmospheric pressure gradient and consequent strong surface winds. As a result, sea level rises and continues to rise as the storm moves over shallower water, and reaches a maximum on the coast near the point of landfall. Sea water sweeps away all that comes in its way. The frictional stress due to the bottom of the sea provides the dissipating mechanism of energy generated by the driving force. 3. Other factors of sea level elevation
There are other mechanisms of rise of sea level. The wind generates short-period surface waves which cause significant transport of water near the shore. Also swells generated earlier by the cyclonic storm may arrive at the coast at the time the storm crosses the coast. These two ride over the general rise of the sea level. They, however contribute little to the total onrush of sea water inland. There is another kind of sea level elevation, viz., astronomical high tide, which is well known. As storm surge and astronomical tide are both long gravity waves they may combine and then post a greater damage in areas e.g. north Bay of Bengal where tide range is high. The worst destruction happens when and where peak surge occurs at the time and location of high tide.
According to available records, the highest level reached by the sea due to the combined effect of storm surge and astronomical tide occurred in 1876 near
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Bakugernge (now in Bangladesh) was 12 metres (40 feet). 4. Prediction of storm surges
Devastation due to coastal inundation by the combined effect of surge and tide (storm tide) can be minimized by evacuating population in time if there is an efficient and reliable system of prediction of storm tide associated with individual storms. Moreover, estimates of storm tide potential are valuable for efficient administration of storm mitigation plans and to determine the safety and economics of coastal constructions and installations.
Prediction of tide is available in tide tables. Numerical solution of the hydrodynamical equations governing the motion of the sea, which is required for prediction of storm surge, was pioneered by Das et al.(1974). It had, however, limited applicability in intensity, track and landfall of a storm. What follows is the method, adopted by Ghosh (1977, 1983, and 1985) and Ghosh et al. (1983). 5. Basic Equations
The three components of the equations of motion and the equation of continuity are –
u/t + uu/x + vu/y + wu/z - fv = -1/ p/x + /z (u/z) ….(6.1)
v/t + uv/x + vv/y + wv/z - fu = -1/ p/y + /z (v/z) ….(6.2)
w/t + uw/x + vw/y + ww/z = -1/ p/z -g ….(6.3)
u/x + v/y w/z = 0 …(6.4) where x,y,z are the right-hand rectangular Cartesian coordinate system ( the prime symbol in anticipation of a minor transformation for non-dimensionalsing) u,v,w are the corresponding velocity components, p is the pressure, the density , g the acceleration due to gravity, the vertical kinematic eddy viscosity and f the coriolis parameter(Ghosh, 1985).
Adopting a dimensionless vertical coordinate z = z/D, So that
, where D(x,y) is the sea bottom.
With a few assumptions (Ghosh, loc.cit) equations, (6.1) to (6.3) reduce to linearized equation – w/t + ifw = q + ην 2w/z2 ………..(6.5) g = - 1/ρ(∂p/∂z) ………………..(6.6)
where q = -g[/x(h-ho) +i/y(h –ho)],
w = u + iv (i = -1)
= /D2
h0 = inverse barometric height from atmospheric pressure, pa
p =pa +gh
1/p/x =g /x(h –h0)
We solve equation (6.5) with ω and z
as dependent and independent variables respectively (Platzman 1963) and using the following surface and boundary conditions:
|z=0 = S ……….………(6.7 )
Where S is the complex from of the surface (wind) stress and is assumed E(ρa /ρ) |Vs|Vs, E being the drag coefficient, E (ρa /ρ) = 3×10-6 and Vs is the complex surface wind, and
|z=-1 = s |z=-1 , where s is a slip coefficient,
We get (Jelesnianski 1967) wD=( / ην )S +( / ην )( sw-1) +(1/ηνσ2)Q ………………………….(6.8)
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where w -1 = (Sσ + )/D[ην +
] = Complex bottom current
Integrating (6.8) in the vertical from bottom of the sea to mean sea level (z = -1 to 0) we obtain
ην [σ2 +G(σ) ]W = Q + [1 + H(σ)] …(6.9)
where G(σ) =
H(σ) =
Q=Dq
Following Platzman (1963)
G(σ) G0(σ0) D2/ν G1(σ0)
H(σ) H0(σ0) D2/ν H1(σ0)
Where σ02 = if/ην
Equation(6.9) reduces to
................................. (6.10) where W = U + iV
A = (1 + σ0-2G0), B =
C = , = σ02
Neglecting (Jelesnianski, 1967) and
taking real and imaginary parts of (6.10), we get
[Br Bi ]
+ f[ArV+AiU] + Crτsx -Ciτs
y} ………...(6.11)
[Br Bi ]
+ f[ArU-AiV] + Crτsy +Ciτs
x
where r and i denote real and imaginary parts and superscripts represent x and y component of the surface(wind) stress.
Integrating the continuity equation (6.4) vertically with the help of Liebnitz’ Theorem we get (Ghosh 1983)
……. (6.12)
Equation (6.11) and (6.12) are a closed system relating h, storm surge, with U and V, components of volume transport.
6. Cyclonic Storm Model
For storm surge computations through numerical solution of equation (6.11) and (6.12) it is essential to have a cyclonic storm model which provides wind stress and pressure gradient values at every grid point. The equations of such a model are (Myers and Malkin 1961)
1/ρa(dpa/dr)=Ksv2 …(6.13)
1/ρa(dpa/dr)cos = fν + (ν2/r) ν2 Knν2 ….(6.14)
where ρa is the surface atmospheric density, assumed constant, pa(r) is the atmospheric pressure, φ(r) is the inflow angle, v( r ) is the wind speed( = |vs|, r is the distance from the centre of the cyclonic storm, Ks and Kn are stress coefficients in the direction opposite and to the right of the wind.
Wind speed v at a distance r from the centre is
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ν = 2VRRr/(R2 +r2)
where maximum wind VR occurs at a distance R from the centre.
Computations are made in a model basin with boundary conditions given in Ghosh (1983). These indicate that the following factors are important for surge generation:
Fig. 1 Vulnerability to storm surges of the coasts of the four eastern maritime states of India. PMSS are the magnitudes (metres). Most vulnerable are the whole of West Bengal and North Orissa coasts, a segment of about 100 km southwest of Masulipatnam of Andhra coast and the coastal segment between 50 km south of Tuticorin and Adirampatnam of Tamil Nadu. Colour scheme is as follows: Green (< 3 metres) – Least, Yellow (>= 3, < 4 metres) – Moderate, Orange (>= 4, <5 metres ) – Severe , Red (>= 5 metres)–VerySevere.
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i) Pressure drop which is the difference between atmospheric surface pressure at the
periphery and at the centre of a cyclone and is the most important factor.
ii) Offshore bathymetry near landfall is also an important factor. A cyclonic storm
landfalling near Contai on the West Bengal coast generates nearly five times storm surge it generates if it landfalls at Vishakhapatnam on the Andhra Coast.
iii) Radius of maximum winds and
iv) Vector storm motion of the cyclone.
Precomputed nomograms which are used for operational prediction were evolved (Ghosh, 1977) for northeast coast of India; Those were later extended to rest of east coast as well as west coast (Ghosh 1983 and 1995)
7. Probable maximum Storm Surge
In order to facilitate long time planning for coastal constructions and installations the
concept of probable maximum storm surge (PMSS) was introduced (Ghosh 1985). These give a quantitative idea of the vulnerability to storm surge of different coastal segments (fig.1).
It is seen that the highest PMSS of 12.8 m occurs at 5 km to the east of Contai in West Bengal. A very close second is the place about 35 km north of Tondi in Tamil Nadu with PMSS of 12.3 m. The whole of West Bengal coast is liable to be devastated by storm surge. Vishakhapatnam has the lowest PMSS of 2.6m.
The above discussion is restricted to the east coast of India where storm surges historically caused enormous destructions.
Acknowledgements
This paper owes its origin to Prof U.K. De’s inspiration during the authors’ many hours of discussion when he headed the School of Environmental Studies, Jadavpur University, Kolkata. They thank Mrs. Banani Ghosh for preparing Fig. 1.
References: Das, P.K., M.C. Sinha and V. Balasubramaniam, 1974 –Storm surges in the Bay of Bengal, QJRMS, 100,425, 437-449. Ghosh, S.K, 1977 – Prediction of Storm surges on the east coast of India, IJMHG, 28, 2, 157-168. Ghosh, S. K., 1983 – Objective prediction of storm surges on the coasts of India and Bangldesh, Ph. D dissertation, Jadavpur University, Calcutta. Ghosh, S.K., 1985 – Probable maximum storm surge on the coasts of India and Bangladesh, Aspects of Mechanics, 73-92, edited by D.K Sinha, south Asian Publishers Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi- 110002. Ghosh, S.K., B.N. Dewan and B. V. Singh., 1983 – Numerical simulation of storm surge envelopes associated with the recent severe cyclones impinging on the east and west coasts of India, Mausam, 34,4, 399-404. Ghosh, S.K., 1995 Storm surges and their numerical prediction along Indian coasts, IMD Forecasting Manual IV -24, Pune, 1-58. Jelesnianski, C.P., 1967 – Numerical computations of storm surges with bottom stress, Mon. Wea. Rev., 95, 11, 740-756. Myers, V.A. and W. Malkin, 1961 – Some properties of hurricane wind fields as deduced from trajectories, NHRP report No. 49, U.S. Wea. Bur. 1-45. Plazman, G.W., 1963 –The dynamical prediction of wind tides on lake Eric, Met. Mon. Am. Met. Soc., 4, 26, 1-44.
Jhar ‘The Storm’ Year: 2012 No.1
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ON THE QUESTION OF GLOBAL WARMING
Kumaresh Mitra Retired Reader in Physics
Brahmananda Keshab Chandra College, Kolkata 700035
1. Some Critical Views On Global Warming
Dr Ivar Glaever had won Nobel Prize in Physics in 1973..Since then he has become a dissenting voice over the alleged ”consensus“ as reported by Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on man-made global warming scares and was one of more than 100 signatories to a 2009 letter to President Obama that was critical of his position on climate change. On this issue, on September 13 of this year he announced his resignation from the premier physics body, American Physical Society (APS) which supports IPCC’s stand on anthropogenic global warming hypothesis i.e. man’s action has inexorably led to the warming of the planet through increased emission of CO2 in the atmosphere . He said in his e-mail message to the Society1 :”The claim is that the temperature has changed from ~288 to ~288.8K in about 150 years, which (if true) means to me that the temperature has been amazingly stable and both human health and happiness have definitely improved in this ‘warming’ period”. Another renowned physicist, Freeman Dyson of Princeton, New Jersey, USA has considered global warming movement as religious one and has also objected to global warming alarmism. More than 60 eminent German scientists of all disciplines e.g. physics, meteorology, chemistry and geology including several U.N. IPCC scientists declared in an open letter dated 26.07.09. to German Chancellor Angela Markel that global warming had become a “pseudo-religion” and that U.N. IPCC had lost its scientific credibility. They noted “humans have had no measurable effect on global warming through CO2 emission. Instead the temperature fluctuations have been within normal ranges and are due to natural cycles.”…..”Indeed CO2’s capability to absorb radiation is almost exhausted by
today’s atmospheric concentrations. If CO2 did indeed have an effect and all fossil fuels were burned, then additional warming over the long term would, in fact, remain limited to only a few tenth of a degree”, they added. The scientists urged Chancellor Markel to “strongly reconsider” her position on global warming and requested” convening of an impartial panel that is free of ideology” to counter U.N. IPCC and review the latest climate science development.2 .
U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) admitted that, at the end of 2010 El Nino, sea surface temperature (SST) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean actually has decreased. Since the heat capacity of water is 1000 times greater than that of air and oceans cover 71 per cent of the planet, the cooling produced in oceans, in turn, is expected to generate significant cooling in the atmosphere. Under such increasing indications of apparently contradicting the claims of global warming, the ebullient German people including the pro-green-party ones are not ready to buy the almost discredited global warming spiel any more, particularly when the election is not far off! Scientists and ministers in Germany, a major force in climate wars have finally abandoned the global warming hype, by replacing it as ‘climate disruption’. In an official press release dated February 22, 2011 and titled as ”Cold Winter in Europe Does Not Question Climate Change” Germany’s Federal Ministry of Education and Research (FEMR) has indicated a decisive switch in its global warming policy, after finally realizing that global warming fears have disheartened no one. Germany’s pro-green government under the Chancellor Angela Markel fell into line with US & British environmental campaigners. As a result, global warming hype has become dead and “climate disruption” lives in most populous (8.2 crore people) nation of European Union. And Markel now pins her hope on green taxation
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that voters would allow her to impose some climate-related taxes on the banner of ”climate disruption” and “mitigation”3. However, the US administration is apparently divided over the issue of global warming and its causes. While President George Bush never approved of green house gas theory for global warming and its causes where CO2 is considered as chief pollutant, one-time Vice-President Al Gore was vigorous proponent of green house gas theory and won Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 along with the members of IPCC. Although the administration of the present U.S. President Barack Obama considers that CO2 is a pollutant and humans are poisoning atmosphere causing anthropogenic global warming, the administration has refused to ratify Kyoto Protocol till date. Any way, an eminent Physics Professor William Harper wrote, “all evidence I see is that the current warming of the climate is just like the past warmings. In fact, it is not as much as past warming yet, and it probably has little to do with CO2”. Harper formerly served as director of the office of Energy Research in the US Department of Energy under President George Bush and was subsequently fired by the next Vice-President Al Gore for his alleged refusal to be in line with Gore’s theory for climate change. He also noted, ”Based on my experience (in my long research career studying physics that is closely related to green house effect) I am convinced that current alarm over CO2 is mistaken”. Harper cited examples of little ice age at the time of American Revolution, when Londoners skated Thames and of warm period during the Middle Ages, when settlers were able to farm southern portion of Greenland. These were evidences of naturally occurring fluctuations that undermine the case for anthropogenic influence. Atmospheric CO2 concentration was exactly the same then. It didn’t change at all”, he explained. ”So there was something that was making the Earth warm and cool that modelers still don’t really understand”. According to Harper, unlike other groups of fund-seeking scientists in energy research, climate scientists only felt very much dismayed at being asked queries on their topics by him. They would, in general, have liked to know from Prof
Harper what type of answers would satisfy him. The attitude was “Give me money, I’ll get the answer you like”. Harper said that he was dismayed at the politicization of the global warming issue and believes that the community of climate change scientists has become veritable “religious cult” noting that nobody understands or questions anything related to science4. Respected climate scientists like John Christy and Reid Bryson as well as Frederick Seitz never accepted green house gas theory of global warming. On this score the interested readers may go through the list of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming5. 2. Role of Carbon Dioxide In The
Atmosphere The Little Ice Age had prevailed in the world, particularly, in Europe for about a 500 year long period approximately from A.D. 1350 to 1880 .Severe crop failures, continuous spells of famines and epidemics reigned over Europe for more than 400 years. During Middle Age(MAW) warming for more than 300 years (A.D. 900 to 1100 approximately) the forest in Canada extended itself to 130 Km. further north than today and in England, Scotland and Poland vine yards for alter wine production flourished only to be perished through vigorous attack of Little Ice Age following MAW. In the 17th and 18th centuries, the velocity of ice movement in glaciers in Swiss village sometimes reached 20 meters annually, thus destroying fields, homes and living creatures’ inhabitation. These glacier attacks were perceived as calamity. But unfortunately, withdrawal of glaciers in 20th century has been described as disasters even by some eminent members of scientific community, although IPCC had agreed to the assertion that global temperature rise up to 3°c would lead to increase in the crop production. Reinforcement of glaciers in some cold years was, in general, ignored by them. An important point is that, we are living in an inter-glacial period. A glacial period (Ice Age) generally, lasts for about 90,000 years As the last ice age ended 11,500 years ago ,it may be that we are over- lasting in our inter-glacial period .this is why global cooling in some years had made head-lines in the world newspapers and
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magazines: New Ice Age is coming as had been the case of 1970s. At the end of 19th century when the Earth almost came out of Little Ice Age, the amount of CO2 discharged in our atmosphere by the world industry was about 30 times lower than now6
. Between 1880 and 1940, when global average temperature increased at fastest rate by 0.5°C, according to multi-disciplinary climate scientist Jaworowski7, the direct measurement of CO2 in the atmosphere indicated a very large increase of CO2 level from about 290 ppmv in 1885 to 440 ppmv in 1940 which is more than 40 ppmv than now, when man-made emission of CO2 in the atmosphere increased 5-fold. Since exceptionally hot 1940s until 1975, Earth’s climate cooled down by about 0.3°C, CO2 level in the atmosphere dropped to about 330 ppmv, in spite of the fact that man-made carbon emission in the air increased 3 times in this time interval. Today’s CO2 level is similar to that recorded before 1940-s warm climatic event, when mountain and artic glaciers were shrinking violently. But during 1950-s and ’60-s, the glaciers again began advancing. However the retreat of these glaciers from record sizes (during the coldest part of the Ice Age) had started about 200 years earlier around 1750 when no one even dreamed of industrial CO2 emission, but the temperature was increasing. Even in the era of industrial revolution since 1850, the increasing time curves of CO2 emission and of global temperature anomaly did not tally with each other. All this goes to show that global temperature change does not follow carbon emission in the atmosphere and it is quite apparent that temperature rise has occurred owing to natural changes and the cycles operating in the atmosphere as a result of Earth’s coming out of Little Ice Age in the 20th century. In order to reconstruct the pre-industrial and ancient atmospheres i.e. the concentrations of the component gases in them, the basic assumption taken is that air inclusion in a ice core taken from glaciers is a closed system which permanently preserves the original chemical and isotopic compositions of the gases within.(however the assumption is being questioned by some recent research works). Thus with such reconstructed proxy data for CO2
concentrations in the atmospheres for thousands and thousands (even for lakhs) of years back, time curves for CO2concentrations were drawn, which beautifully tallied with similar curves for global temperature anomalies. This delighted very much the proponents anthropogenic influence on the rise of temperature as their hypothesis that increase in CO2 level in air leads to global temperature rise was apparently vindicated. However some scientific works8 proved the opposite : temperature increases always preceded the rising CO2 levels, not the reverse. As solubility of CO2 is lower in warm water than in cold water, less CO2 can be retained in the upper 3000-meter layer of warm oceans corresponding to warm air. Thus warm oceans exhale excess CO2 into the atmosphere where CO2-content is more than 50 times lower than when it is in the ocean, leading to rise in the CO2 level in the air. This is why the global temperature between 1880 and 1940 rose sharply, presumably due to natural changes and subsequently CO2 level increased in air as an effect of this cause, but not the reverse. In 35 years’ time from 1970 to 2004, carbon emission in the air increased by about 70 per cent and global temperature in the last two decades of the last century increased by about 0.5° C. During the 2nd half of the century sun entered into a most active phase with large number sunspots over its disc, corresponding to 11-year sunspot cycles .However, at the turn of the century, sun became quiet with the disappearance of the sunspots. Although El Nino occurred corresponding to excessive high temperatures at the equator in the Pacific in the years 1998 and 2010 making the former the warmest year in the recent centuries and the latter close to it .The opposite phenomenon of La Nina occurred in 2005 making the year coldest in the decade (1996-2005), while temperature continued to decrease in a few subsequent years. Any way, if El Nino and La Nina corrections are made to temperature, it is found that in the last 12 to 13 years the global temperature change is almost nil. This stagnation of global temperature in the 1st decade of new century is surprising in view of green house theory of global warming, as carbon
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emission in air increased three times compared to last decade of last century. 3. Multi-decadal Oscillations and 1500
year Climate Cycle in Global Warming
German researchers Keenlyside et al.9 studying long term changes in sea surface temperature (SST) suggested that in the on-going decade there may be lull in global warming due to natural variations in the climate, although IPCC had predicted a 0.3°C rise. With the help of their climate model, they have developed a method to derive ocean currents for the coming decades by using the easily available good quality SST data of past decades, since other sub-surface observations are very scarce. The SST-s influence the winds and heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere thus containing clue to atmospheric data and both these factors impact ocean currents. Keenlyside said, ”the results(of the computer model} are very encouraging and show that at least for some regions around the world it is possible to predict natural climate oscillations on decadal time scale, Europe and North America are two such regions because they are influenced by the North Atlantic and Tropical Pacific respectively”. He also said, ”in addition to green house gas concentration we are using observed SST-s
of the past decades in our climate model simulations, a method which has been successfully applied for seasonal predictions and El Nino forecastings”10. However their results of computer works indicated that in this decade natural climate variations in North Atlantic and tropical Pacific will off-set the projected anthropogenic warming leading to stagnation of global temperature.9 According to a study published by National Center for Policy Analysis
(NCPA), S. Fred Singer (University of Varginia) and Denis Avery (Hudson Institute)firmly opined that global warming and cooling seemed to be apart of a 1500 year climate cycle of moderate temperature swings. However, the Earth has been experiencing climate cycles, most notably the 90, 000 year ice age cycles. Scientists got the unequivocal evidence of 1500 year climate cycle, when Dansgaard of Denmark and Oeschger of Switzerland discovered a two mile long ice cores from Greenland representing 2,50,000 years of Earth’s frozen layered climate history. They concluded that smaller temperature cycle of periodicity 2,550 years existed in Earth’s climate. Subsequent research reduced the estimated length of the cycle to 1500 years (plus or minus 500 years). This cycle was evidenced in numerous Earthly instances like ice core from Antarctic’s Vostok glacier of length 4,00,000 years, advances and retreats of glaciers in northern Europe, sediments in sea-beds and lakes all over the world, stalagmites, tree rings living and buried etc that has been documented in many peer-reviewed scientific paper published in most reputed scientific journal like Nature, Science, GRL etc 11. Singer and Avery logically and skillfully concluded in their most popular book: ”Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years (2007)” that solar cycles in their 1500 year lengths generate warming and cooling of Earth’s atmosphere irrespective of atmospheric composition of green house gases. That is, natural variations rather than human induced green house gases have tended to control the climate and human activities have little to do with Earth’s current warming trend.12
REFERENCE
1. Nobel prize-wining physicist resigns over global warming. http://foxnews.com/scitech/2011/09/14/nobel-prize-wining –physicist-resigns-from-top physics group over global/….
2. http://www.speroforum.com/a/20054/german-scientists-reject-manmade-global-warming
3. http://CO2insanity.com/2011/03//09/germany-dumps-global-warming-climate-disruption-is-last-green-gasp/
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4. Professor denies global warming theory—by Raymond Brusca, http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2009/01/12/22506
5. http://en.wikipedia,org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_asses…..
6. Marland G. et al., 2006,”Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning,cement manufacture and gas flaring:1752-2003”,http://cdiac.orml.gov/ftp/udp 030/global.1751_2003.cms.
7. http://www.warwickhughes,com/ice core/z jmar 8. Indetermuhle,A.et al 1999,”Hollocene Carbon Cycle dynamics based on CO2 trapped
in ice..........”Nature ,vol.398,pp 121-126. 9. Calion, N. et al. 2003,”Timing of atmospheric CO2 and antartic temperature
changes…….”Science, vol.299.pp 1728-1731 . 10. Keenlyside N. S. et al., 2008.”Advancing decadal scale climate predictions in North
Atlantic Sector”.Nature,1 May, vol.453,issue no.7191, pp 84-88. 11. “Will Global Warming Take a Short Break? Improved Climate Predictions Suggest a
Reduced Warming Trend During the Next 10 Years” Science Daily, May 5, 2008. 12. “The Physical Evidence of Earth’s Unstoppable 1500 Year Climate Cycle”.
http://www.free republic.com/focus/1496781/posts 13. http://www.ncpa.org/pub/st279 Note: To write this article author’s other writings: ”Ushnayaner Dui Meru” Saradiya EKDIN,1417, pp 219-228, “Alternate Theories of Global Warming “ to be published in the proceedings of the seminar on Global Warming in Netaji Subhash Open University etc. have been freely consulted.
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IMPORTANCE OF FUZZY LOGIC IN WEATHER FORECASTING
Sarbari Ghosh Vidyasagar Evening College, Kolkata 700006
The idea of fuzzy logic was born in July, 1964 by Lofti A. Zadeh, a well-respected professor at the University of California, Berkeley. The fundamental principle of fuzzy logic is to develop cost-effective but useful approximate solutions to complex real-world problems exploiting the tolerance of imprecision. In fuzzy logic, the conventional black-and-white concept is generalized to a matter of degree, so that human knowledge involving vague concept can be dealt with. The building blocks of quantitative fuzzy logic are fyzzy sets with unsharp or smooth boundaries and membership function which assigns a range of values to an element in a universal set instead of assigning the values 0 or 1 to it. Expert forecasters use well-developed subjective techniques for weather prediction. They improve their accuracy and skill over time by learning through experiences. In recent years the forecasters have been presented with plethora of dataset and products. So, they can utilize, now, intelligent system approaches for data analysis, data interpretation, verification etc. Fuzzy logic is one of such intelligent or expert systems, the goal of which is to perform at the level of a human expert by leveraging knowledge and experience gained over time. In the domain of Atmospheric Science, the values and range of important variables like wind-direction, amount of cloud cover,
temperature etc. can be represented numerically. But, unfortunately, all or some of them have fuzzy margins ( unsharp margins ) due to error of measurement, observational error or intentional approximation. Not only that, forecasters often use the phrases like “mostly clear”, “widely scattered showers”, “occasional rain” etc,, which map nicely into the architecture of fuzzy sets. Though fuzzy set allows us to represent vague or cloudy concepts expressed in natural language, its representation is context-bound. Moreover, there is no sound guiding principle yet for constructing the membership functions. In spite of these limitations, fuzzy logic is important for weather forecasting , because in this domain an algorithm is needed that can incorporate continual adjustment, correction or deprecation of forecasts by inclusion of additional local information not available at the time the forecast was originally prepared. To address the numerical imprecision of some quantified physical variables in pre-monsoon weather forecasting, the author has recently developed a methodology based on ‘Fuzzy Membership Roster Method’ to predict the pre-monsoon weather of Kolkata. The study reveals that the methodology helps to take correct decisions in almost 60% cases. Though this methodology has scope for improvement, the study establishes the claim of Jim Murtha (1995) that fuzzy logic can be used in operational meteorology.
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A GENERAL DISCUSSION ON THE ROLE OF DIFFERENT METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS RELATED WITH THE PRE-MONSOON WEATHER OVER EASTERN REGION OF INDIA
Dr. Kamal Krishna Basu
Ex-Senior Research Fellow, J.U., Kolkata
Pre monsoon thunder squalls/ Nor’weasters are one of the most important events that occupy a major part in the pre-monsoon weather system over Eastern India. Contribution of different meteorological parameter like temperature, pressure, humidity, etc are the most important variables which play a significant role for the development of the Pre monsoon thunder squalls/ Nor’weasters. Though there are so many factors which are to be taken in to consideration for the ideal situation and for the actual time and place of occurrence of all these thunder squalls during the hot weather period of Summer season mainly within the optimum period of March to May, every year, in majority of cases, over the region of Eastern and North-Eastern states. Normally these Pre monsoon Thunder squalls/ Nor’weasters are very much violent and destructive in nature and appear suddenly in form of dark big clouds (in form of C.b. clouds) with sudden rise in wind speed associated with frequent lightning and thunder. So many eminent Meteorological Scientist on earlier occasions have contributed their valuable opinions and views regarding the phenomena by their noble contributions at various times. However, for forecasting the occurrence of Pre monsoon thunder squalls/ Nor’weaster, some times it is necessary to know the favorable conditions and mechanism of these phenomena.
In earlier study, in respect variations of pressure and temperature associated with these Pre Monsoon thunder squalls/ Nor’weasters, had been studied by Padmanava Murti Chaudhury (1967 over Dumdum). Similar attempt had also been done on earlier occasions, to study the variations of different meteorological elements associated with the Pre monsoon thunder squalls at Kolkata by Bhattacharya P.K and Basu K.K. in the year 1983. In the current discussion, the characteristics of different meteorological elements like pressure, temperature, wind speed and direction ,rain fall with duration time along with the time of occurrence relating to these Pre monsoon thunder squalls/ Nor’weasters, held at Kolkata region (Alipore and Dumdum) during the years 2010 – 2011, have been taken into consideration . Special emphasis has been given on the dates, on which two or more squalls occurred on the same day, over Kolkata region. The highest wind speed, during a particular squall, during the two successive years and the temperature and pressure combination, during these squalls, has also been considered for discussion. A pictorial representation regarding Wind speed variation has been given bellow:
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STUDY OF NORWESTERS USING DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
Devendra Pradhan
India Meteorological Department
Introduction: During pre-monsoon period (March-May) severe thunderstorm activities take place in the NW sector of the Gangetic West Bengal region. These thunderstorms usually move from NW direction to SE direction and therefore known as “Norwesters” or in local terminology as “Kalbaishakhi”. These are associated with hailstorm, heavy rainfall and lightning and cause heavy damage to the crops and property. This has been recorded during several years of study that lightning kills many people every year in the NW sector of Kolkata (Bardhman, Bankura, Purulia, Dumaka etc). Norwesters are usually have a large vertical extent as Cumulonimbus clouds of the order of 16-18 km and cause strong gusty winds may be of the magnitude 100 km/h. Timely and accurate prediction of these short term severe weather phenomena such as thunderstorm, hailstorm, wind squall, micro burst and tornado is essential for the public safety and aviation. Doppler Weather radar (DWR) is an indispensable instrument which provides very good prediction of all above devastating phenomena. This has been well documented by several radar scientists that DWR is the only instrument for tracking of Tornadoes. The short term prediction of these phenomena and their further movement during next few hours (also known as Nowcasting) may be easily performed using DWR derived products. The interpretation of these products is quite complex and needs expertise in understanding their interpretation and applications in meteorology. As DWR operates round the clock and generates base and derived products at every 10 minutes interval, the products are useful for the study of cloud microphysics in addition to the nowcasting. In the present talk, discussion over the nowcasting aspects of severe weather activities using DWR products has been done. Some cases of severe thunderstorms & hailstorms during pre-monsoon season have been analyzed using reflectivity and velocity products derived from DWR.
Data: DWR generates several derived products from Radar Reflectivity factor (Z) for their utilization in the nowcasting of severe weather events in the range of 400 km. The measurement of radial component of velocity (V) of an object provides estimates of the wind velocity in the surroundings and also the winds associated with the wall cloud region of the tropical cyclones. The reflectivity products like PPI_Z, MAX_Z, VCUT_Z, EBASE & ETOP are utilized in understanding the three dimensional structure of the thunderstorm and the cyclones whereas the hydrological products like SRI (Surface Rainfall Intensity) for estimation of rainfall rate & PAC (Precipitation Accumulation) is used for total precipitation accumulation. The products derived from radial velocity like PPI_V & MAX_V are extensively used for getting wind information around the station in the range of 250 km whereas the shear products like RDS (Radial Shear), ELS (Elevation shear), HZS (Horizontal shear), 3DS (three dimensional shear), VCS (Vertical Shear) have been found to be very useful in the estimation of sheared environment favorable for the development of the thunderstorms. The product VVP_2 (Volume Velocity Processing) which is a presentation of vertical profile of the horizontal velocity within the range of 40 km around the station derived from radial velocity is an important product for predicting the initiation of the thunderstorms and their movement. This product also gives an estimate for the movement of low pressure systems in the surroundings of station where DWR is located. A comparison of DWR estimated velocity at various levels with winds from RS/RW ascents has been done by DWR Kolkata & Chennai and found that a good correlation (Correlation coefficient 0.88) exists between them and therefore DWR derived winds may be used as a replacement of winds from upper air ascents. Analysis: Fig 1 depicts DWR image of a severe thunderstorm in the matured stage at
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1022 UTC on 13.04.2006 in the NW sector of Kolkata with vertical extent about 18 km and the reflectivity exceeding 18 km. Another thunderstorm was developed in the NE sector with a greater vertical extent wherein two cells were embedded and the reflectivity was more than 60 dBz. These were the “norwesters” which traveled in the SE direction as seen from Fig 2 (at 1052 UTC)and created the high wind squall of speed 72 km/h as recorded by Alipore observatory at 1244 UTC and Dumdum reported 65 km/h at 1220 UTC. The system in the NE sector moved towards Bangladesh. The duration of these two thunderstorms was more than 3 Hrs. Fig 3 & 4 show the South Easterly movement of a line squall which was developed in the NW sector of Kolkata on 04.04.2011. The length of the system was about 300 km and was embedded with a large number of thunderstorms. This system created a wind squall of speed 90 km/h as recorded by Alipore observatory at 1210 UTC. The line squall traveled with a speed of 60 km/h and reached
Kolkata at 1230 UTC. Fig 5 & 6 show the DWR images of a severe hailstorm at 2200 UTC of 10th March 2006. The hailstorm lasted for 15 minutes and the hail size was of the order of 3 cm diameter. Fig 7 & 8 show the PCAPPI images of the system depicting “Spike” like structure usually known as “Hail Spikes”. The system moved in the NE direction and dissipated within 45 minutes duration. Conclusion: The analysis revealed that DWR images provide very good prediction of development of the system, its direction & speed of movement, intensity of rainfall and the total precipitation. The vertical extent of a cyclone, size of the eye and the associated winds provide a damage potential of a cyclone during landfall. The estimates of heavy rainfall can also be done very precisely using DWR images. In the conclusion, it may be stated that DWR is an unmatched tool in the nowcasting of all severe weather phenomena in the range of 300 km.
Fig 1 Fig 2
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Fig 3 Fig 4
Fig 5 Fig 6
Fig 7 Fig 8
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NOR’WESTERS OF BENGAL: REDEFINED AS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
Dr. Debasish Lohar Atmospheric Science Research Group
Department of Physics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata-700 032
Local Convective Storm (LCS) occurs frequently, particularly in summer season, in several places all over the world. However, LCS receives special attention to the researchers in case it is associated with moderate/severe squall causing considerable damages. Wind speed when increases by 28.8 km/hr and reaches atleast 40 km/hr, such a gust wind is termed as squall, as per the definition given by WMO. West Bengal is such a region where LCS, locally known as Nor’westers, often associated with severe squall, forms during premonsoon season (March through May) and has received attention for the past about a century (Normand, 1921; Mukhopadhyay et al., 2005, Ghosh et al., 2008). It is because of their severity in nature, causing lot of damages to the property, crops in case hail is associated with it and even loss of human lives due to collapsing of mud houses, uprooting of trees and lightning. On occasions, tornados may also develop within the storm cells. For example on 14th April 2010, an occurrence of such a tornado in the northern part of Bengal, adjacent Bihar and Assam claimed about 120 human lives. More than 200 people were severely injured on the incident.
In a recent study by Dalal et al (2012) described these Nor’westers as squall-type linear
Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) following the definition of MCS given by Houze (1977). In case a convective system has a length scale greater than or equal to 100 km and persists more than 3 hours, the convective system is then termed as a MCS. Using the data generated through a Nationally coordinated project STORM, number of MCS over Bengal during the premonsoon season of 2006-08 were analysed and classified them under three categories based on their organizational modes: Leading Stratiform (LS), i.e., stratiform cloud in the front and convective part in the back; Trailing Stratiform (TS), i.e., stratiform cloud in the back and convective cloud in the front; and Parallel Stratiform (PS), i.e., convective cloud in the centre with stratiform cloud on either side of the convective cloud. Dalal et al. (2012) claimed that the basic characteristics of the MCSs over Bengal are similar to that form over the extra-tropical region with certain exceptions. MCSs over this region initiate under relatively weak synoptic forcing unlike mid-latitude MCSs, while mesoscale conducive environment is mainly responsible for their regeneration and persistence for a longer period of time.
References: 1. Dalal, S., D. Lohar, S. Sarkar, I. Sadhukhan and G. C. Debnath, 2012. Organizational modes of squall-type Mesoscale Convective Systems during premonsoon season over eastern India. Atmospheric Research, 106,120-138. 2. Ghosh, A., D. Lohar, and J. Das, 2008. Initiation of Nor’wester in relation to mid-upper and low-level water vapor patterns on METEOSAT-5 images. Atmospheric Research, 87,116-135 3. Houze, R.A., Jr. 1977. Structure and dynamics of a tropical squall-line system. Monthly Weather Review, 105, 1540-1567. 4. Mukhopadhyay, P., H.A.K Singh, and S.S Singh, 2005. Two severe Nor'westers in April 2003 over Kolkata using Doppler Radar observations and satellite imagery. Weather, 60, 343–353. 5. Normand, C.W.B., 1921. Wet-bulb temperature and thermodynamics of air, India Meteorological Memoirs, 23, Part I.
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CHAPTER ACTIVITIES
21.02.2012 A One-day Workshop on “Pre-Monsoon Weather over Eastern India” was organized at Conference Hall, Regional Meteorological Centre Kolkata Alipore Complex. Six invited talks were delivered on the subject by Dr.Subir Kumar Ghosh, Prof. Sutapa Chaudhuri, Dr. Debasish Lohar, Dr. Sarbari Ghosh, Sh.Tapan Kumar Basu and Sh. Devendra Pradhan. About 110 members and guests participated. 13.01.2012 A General Body Meeting held on 13.01.2012 proceeding is as follows: Secretary, IMS Kolkata announced the IMS National Council Election result as follows and conveyed his thanks for electing him as a council member of NC. One full day workshop will be organized on February 21st, 2012 at Regional Meteorological Centre, Alipore. Six invited talks will be delivered on the subject “Pre-Monsoon Weather over Eastern Region” by the guest lecturers. It has also been decided to collect a sum of Rs.20/- from all members as a token participation charge for the work shop. The scientific Journal of IMS Kolkata ‘JHAR - The STORM’ will be published shortly. All members have been requested to submit the articles, news, events and fiction story related to Weather and Environment before February 01, 2012 through email id [email protected] with Sub: MATERIALS FOR JHAR. Detailed guide line for authors are enclosed herewith. Authors need not be a member of the Society, any person having knowledge on the subject and interested to share, may sent his paper / materials. It is also requested to all members to collect the advertisement for publishing in the journal. Full page colour: Rs.4000/-, Half page colour: Rs.2000/- Full page Black & white: Rs.1000/-, Half page Black & white: Rs.500/- 28.09.2011 Shri D. Pradhan, Secretary, IMS Kolkata delivered lecture on 28th Sept 2011 at Seminar
Hall of Geological Survey of India, Kolkata on “ Doppler Weather Radar and its utilization on prediction of Severe Weather. Shri T K. Ray, Treasurer delivered a lecture on the Aims and objective of Indian Meteorological Society and also activity of IMS Kolkata. This was a programme to create awareness amongst the scientific community like GSI about the technology and its use in IMD and also publicity about IMS. 06.09.2011 (i) Scientific Lecture on the topic “A Hybrid Model to Forecast Peak Gust Speed Associated with Thunderstorm”, was delivered by Prof.(Mrs.) Sutapa Chaudhuri, Head, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Calcutta. (ii) Scientific Lecture on the topic “Radiation & Energy Balance in Rice Ecosystem”, was delivered by Prof. Dilip Kumar Khan, Department of Environmental Science, University of Kalyani. The lectures were held at Dr. S. K. Banerjee Seminar Hall, 3rd Floor, Regional Meteorological Centre Kolkata, Alipore, Kolkata 700027. 06.09.2011 A meeting of the Executive Committee, Editorial Board and Publication committee of IMS Kolkata chapter was also held on 06.09.2011 at RMC Kolkata at 05:00 PM. 09.08.2011 The first meeting of the new Executive Committee of IMS Kolkata held at Regional Meteorological Centre Kolkata, Alipore. The full report on the ‘Proceedings of IMS Kolkata Executive Committee Meeting dated 09.08.2011’, posted at IMS Kolkata Blog. 22.07.2011 Annual General Body Meeting of IMS Kolkata Chapter resumed at Dr. S. K. Banerjee Seminar Hall, Regional Meteorological Centre Kolkata. Accounts for 2009-2011 passed on voice vote. Election of new office bearers held. Candidates
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were elected uncontested for the posts of Chairman, Secretary, Joint Secretary, Treasurer, and 3 (three) members. The remaining 5 (five) members have been provisionally selected on voice vote by the General Body, subject to the consent of concerned members. The new Executive Committee for the period 2011-2013 becomes: 14.07.2011 The Annual General Body Meeting (AGM-
2011) on 14.07.2011, was adjourned over a debate on audit and accounts for 2009-2011, to be resumed on 22.07.2011. 15.06.2011 Executive Body meeting held on agenda points like (i) accounts for 2009-2011, (ii) planning of Election of new committee / office bearers for 2011-2013, (iii) revival of chapter website, (iv) miscellaneous points.
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GUIDELINES FOR THE AUTHORS
JHAR ‘The Storm’ is the journal of IMS Kolkata usually publishes the papers related to Meteorology and allied subjects. All scholars in the field of meteorology will be invited to forward their papers irrespective of member IMS. It has been decided to publish the Journal bi-annually including Scientific Articles, Events, Review, general articles and News / Information related to Meteorology and allied subjects. Preference will be given to the papers showing new ideas / research in the field of meteorology. (i) Popular Science, (ii) Scientific Article, (iii) News letter JHAR ‘The Storm’ may consist of about 50 pages and 150 copies will be printed. Guidelines for the authors to be decided by the Editorial Board, and is available in the website. Papers received from any author, irrespective of IMS membership, will be forwarded to the Editorial Board and accepted / edited articles will be published by the Publication committee. It has been unanimously decided that the bulletin of IMS Kolkata JHAR ‘The Storm’ should be revived at the earliest, for which, the Executive Committee proposed to constitute an Editorial Board and a Publication Committee, as – Editorial Board:
Editor : Prof. Utpal Kumar De (LM-520) Assistant Editor : Dr. Mridul Bose (LM-1760) Members : Prof. Dilip Kumar Khan (LM-1843) Dr. Kamal Krishna Basu (LM-1757) Mr. Devendra Pradhan (LM-617)
Publication Committee:
Secretary (Publication) : Mr. Utpal Bhattacherjee (LM-1294) Members : Mr. Anirban Biswas (LM-1734) Mr. Sourav Debnath (LM-1690) Mr. Tapas Kumar Ghoshal (LM-1699) Mr. Durgadas Banerjee (LM-1748) Mr. Asit Kumar Sinha (LM-1732) Mr. Swarup Kumar Chakravorty (LM-1791)
Prescribed Format: i) Paper Size : A4 ii) Font Size : 12 iii) Font type : Times New Roman iv) Line Spacing : 1½ v) No. of pages : Maximum 10 vi) Margins : 1 Inch each side (Top, bottom, left & right)
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IMS Kolkata Chapter - Members’ List
No. Mem. No. Name(s) Present Address 1 LM-1737 SH ASHOK KUMAR ACHARYA Retired IMD 2 LM-1730 SH. ASIS KUMAR ACHARYA IMD,RMC Kolkata 3 LM-1729 SH. AMIYA SANKAR BHAKTA IMD, AMO Kolkata 4 LM-1734 SH. ANIRBAN BISWAS IMD, RMC Kolkata 5 LM-1704 SH. ARUN KUMAR CHAKRABORTY Retired IMD 6 LM-1687 SH. ASIM CHAUDHURY IMD, RMC Kolkata 7 LM-1733 SH. ACHINTA CHOWDHURY IMD, AMO Kolkata 8 LM-1728 SH. ALOY KANTI DASGUPTA IMD, MO Kolkata 9 LM-New DR. ARUN KUMAR DE ISI, Kolkata 10 LM-1735 SH. ARUN KUMAR KAR IMD, AMO Kolkata 11 LM-1802 SH. AKHIL CHANDRA MANDAL IMD, ACWC Kolkata 12 LM-1691 SH. AMAR NATH PALIT IMD, RMC Kolkata 13 N-104 SH. AJOY KUMAR NATH IMD, RMC Kolkata 14 LM-1731 SH. ANGSHUMAN KUNDU IMD RMC Kolkata 15 LM-1736 SH. ANUSILAN KUNDU IMD, AMO Kolkata 16 LM-1684 SH. ASISH KUMAR SEN IMD, Patna 17 LM-1732 SH. ASIT KUMAR SINHA IMD, AMO Kolkata 18 LM-1842 SH. AJOY SINGH 19 LM-1742 SMT. BANASHREE BANDYOPADHYAY IMD, AMO Kolkata 20 LM-1738 SH. BIJAN KUMAR BISWAS RMC Kolkata 21 LM-1740 SH. BISWAJIT DASGUPTA IMD RMC Kolkata 22 LM-1741 SH. BINAY KUMAR MANDAL IMD, AMO Kolkata 23 LM-1695 SH. BISWANATH MITRA 24 LM-1739 SH. BIMAL KRISHNA ROY IMD RMC Kolkata 25 LM-1743 SH. CHANCHAL KUMAR KUNDU IMD, AMO Kolkata 26 LM-1744 SH. DHURABA BANERJEE DEPT OF PHYSICS, SVIST 27 LM-1748 SH. DURGA DAS BANERJEE IMD, AMO Kolkata 28 LM-1752 SH. DILIP KUMAR BANIK IMD RMC Kolkata 29 LM-1749 SH. DEBASHIS CHAKRABORTY IMD, MO Kolkata 30 LM-1492 SH. DEBAJIT DUTTA 31 LM-1747 SH. DEBABRATA HALDAR IMD RMC Kolkata 32 LM-1843 PROF. DILIP KUMAR KHAN Professor, Kalyani University 33 LM-432 DR. DEBASISH LOHAR Reader, Dept. of Physics, Jadavpur University 34 LM-1746 SH. DEBABRATA MAJUMDAR IMD, AMO Kolkata 35 LM-617 SH. DEVENDRA PRADHAN IMD, DWR Kolkata 36 LM-1750 SH. DEBASHIS ROY CHOWDHUROY IMD, AMO Kolkata 37 LM-1751 SH. DEBASIS ROY RMC Kolkata 38 LM-1685 SH. DULAL ROY IMD, RMC Kolkata 39 LM-1493 SH. DEBASISH SARKAR 40 LM-1745 SH. DIPAK KUMAR SENGUPTA IMD RMC KOL 41 LM-1844 DR. DHANANJAY KUMAR TRIPATHI Lecturer, Nerula Institute of Tech. 42 LM-1295 DR. GAKUL CHANDRA DEBNATH IMD, RMC Kolkata 43 LM-New SH. GOPAL CHANDRA FALIA ASST. ENGNR.(CIVIL) GOVT. OF INDIA 44 LM-New SH. HEMANTA KUMAR BANERJEE IMD, RMC Kolkata 45 LM-1753 DR. HIMADRI CHAKRABORTY Lecturer, Surendranath College, Kolkata 46 AM-New SH. HIMANGSHU DAS IMD, Kolkata 47 LM-1754 SH. INDRANIL TALUKDAR DWR KOL 48 LM-1755 SH. JYOTI PRAKASH CHAKRABORTY IMD RMC Kolkata 49 LM-1756 SH. JAYDIP GUHA IMD AMO Kolkata 50 LM-1757 DR. KAMAL KRISHNA BASU Retired IMD 51 LM-1758 SH. KISHORE GOBINDA DAS IMD PAC KOL 52 LM-946 DR. LALU DAS Lecturer, Dept. of Agricultural Met., B C K V 53 LM-1759 SH LAKSHMAN CHANDRA PAL IMD, AMO Kolkata 54 LM-1688 SMT. MOUSUMI BHATTACHARYA Shemmer Techno Service 55 LM-1683 SMT. MOUMITA BISWAS Research Scholler 56 LM-1760 DR. MRIDUL BOSE Lecturer, Dept. of Physics, Jadavpur University 57 LM-1293 SH. MILAN KANTI DAS IMD, RMC Kolkata 58 LM-New SH. MRINAL KANTI PAL ROY Retired, IMD, PAC Kolkata 59 LM-1693 SMT. MIRA SARKAR RMC Kolkata 60 LM-1763 SH. NITAI CHANDRA BHATTACHARYA IMD RMC Kolkata 61 LM-1761 SH NILANJAN DE CALCUTTA INSTITUTE OF ENG. MGMT. 62 LM-1764 SH. NARAYAN CHANDRA PAL IMD, RMC Kolkata 63 LM-1762 DR. NATARAJ SUBHAS ICAR PATNA0 64 LM-1694 DR. NABAJIT CHAKRABORTY IMD, PAC Kolkata 65 LM-1692 SH. PRADIP NARAYAN BASU IMD, RMC Kolkata 66 LM-1765 SH. PRASAD KUMAR HALDER IMD, RMC Kolkata 67 LM-1702 SH. PARBATI NATH HANSDA Retired, IMD RMC Kolkata 68 LM-1494 SH. PRADYOT KUMAR MANDAL IMD, RMC Kolkata 69 LM-1789 SH. SUBESH RANJAN BAKSHI IMD, AMO Kolkata 70 LM-434 SH. P. K. BALL
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No. Mem. No. Name(s) Present Address 71 LM-1772 SH. PARTHA PRATIM GUIN IMD, AMO Kolkata 72 LM-1846 SH. PRADIP KUMAR GHOSH IMD, RMC Kolkata 73 LM-1771 SH. PRANAB GHOSH IMD, AMO Kolkata 74 LM-1768 SH. PINAKI MANDAL IMD RMC Kolkata 75 LM-1696 SH. PRANAB KUMAR MUKHOPADHYAY IMD, RMC Kolkata 76 LM-1767 SMT. PRATIMA MAITY IMD, RMC Kolkata 77 LM-1773 SH. PRADIP KUAMR ROY IMD, AMO Kolkata 78 LM-1769 SH. PRASANTA ROY IMD RMC Kolkata 79 LM-1766 SH. PRASANTA KUMAR SARDAR IMD RMC Kolkata 80 LM-1770 SH. PRODYUT KUMAR SABUI IMD, AMO Kolkata 81 LM-68 PROF. P. K. SIRKAR 82 LM-1776 SH. RAJA ACHARYA IMD RMC Kolkata 83 LM-1689 DR. RINA BHATTACHARAYA University of Kalyani 84 LM-1774 DR. RAMAPRASAD BANDYOPADHYAY Professor, Dept. of Math, Jadavpur University 85 LM-1780 SH. RABINDRA NATH DEB IMD, AMO Kolkata 86 LM-522 SH. RAMAKRISHNA DUTTA IMD, RMC Kolkata 87 AM-New SH. RABINDRA NATH GHOSE IMD, RMC Kolkata 88 LM-1845 SMT. RISHIPARNA GUHA Research Fellow, University of Kalyani 89 LM-1778 SH. RAMENDRA NATH MANDAL IMD, RMC Kolkata 90 LM-1777 SH. RITWIK PAL IMD RMC Kolkata 91 LM-1775 SH. RANEN ROY IMD, RMC Kolkata 92 LM-New DR. RANJIT KUMAR SUR PROJECT ANALIZER 93 LM-1779 SH. RAJ KAPORE SHARMA EX. ENG, DVC 94 LM-1786 SH. SWADESH RANJAN BHOWMIK Retired, IMD, RMC Kolkata 95 B-274 SMT. SANDHYA BHADURI NATMO, Kolkata 96 LM-1791 SH. SWARUP KUMAR CHAKRAVORTI DWR Kolkata 97 LM-1781 SH. SUDIP KUMAR CHATTERJEE River Research Institute 98 LM-1782 SMT. SUMANA CHATTERJEE IMD, RMC Kolkata 99 LM-605 SH. S. K. CHATTOPADHYAY 100 LM-1803 SH. SUMAN CHOTTOPADHYAY IMD, RMC Kolkata 101 LM-1690 SH. SOURAV DEBNATH IMD, RMC Kolkata 102 LM-1783 SH. SATYABRATA DUTTA IND RMC Kolkata 103 LM-1698 SH. SUKAMAL DUTTA IMD, RMC Kolkata 104 LM-New SMT. SWETA DAS IMD, RMC Kolkata 105 C-97 PROF. (DR.) SUTAPA CHOWDHURY Calcutta University 106 LM-1700 SH. SOUMITRA GHOSH IMD, RMC Kolkata 107 LM-New SH. SACHCHIDANADA GHOSH Retired, IMD, RMC Kolkata 108 LM-New SH. SUDIP KUMAR GHOSH IMD, RMC Kolkata 109 AM-New DR. SARBARI GHOSH (DAS) BKP RSN COLLEGE 110 LM-1787 SH. SAMAR CHANDRA JANA Retired, IMD RMC Kolkata 111 LM-1697 SH. SHUBHENDU KARMAKAR IMD, RMC Kolkata 112 LM-1788 SH. SACHINDRA NATH MAITY Retired IMD 113 LM-1790 SH. SRIBASH CHANDRA MAJUMDAR IMD, MO Kolkata 114 LM-1686 SMT. SWAPNA MITRA IMD, RMC Kolkata 115 LM-30 SH. SWADESH KUMAR MISHRA Dept. Of Agriculture, Govt. of West Bengal 116 LM-1154 DR. SUBHAS CHANDRA MUKHOPADHYAY Professor of Geography, Calcutta University 117 LM-1491 DR. SUTAPA MUKHOPADHYAY Department of Geography, Visva Bharati 118 LM-1792 SH. SUMAN MUKHOPADHYAY IMD, RMC Kolkata 119 LM-1784 SMT. SNIGDHA PAL IMD, RMC Kolkata 120 LM-New PROF SRIMANTA PAL ISI Kolkata 121 LM-1701 SH. SANJOY NARAYAN ROY IMD, RMC Kolkata 122 LM-1793 SH. SATYAJIT GHOSH ROY IMD, RMC Kolkata 123 LM-1785 SH. SUMAN KUMAR SAHA IMD RMC Kolkata 124 LM-523 SH. S. C. SIKDAR 125 LM-423 SH. SANJIB SEN IMD, PAC Kolkata 126 LM-521 SH. SOUMENDU SENGUPTA IMD, MO Kolkata 127 LM-114 PROF. S. S. SINGH 128 LM-1798 SH. TAPAN KUMAR BHATTACHARYA IMD, AMO Kolkata 129 LM-1800 SH. TAPAN KANTI CHAKRABORTY IMD, AMO Kolkata 130 LM-1797 SH. TAPAS KUMAR GHOSH IMD, AMO Kolkata 131 LM-1699 SH. TAPAS KUMAR GHOSAL Retired, IMD, RMC Kolkata 132 LM-1794 SH. TAPAS KUMAR NANDI IMD, RMC Kolkata 133 LM-1796 SH. TAPAN KUMAR PAL IMD, MO Kolkata 134 LM-1799 SH. TUHIN KUMAR PAL IMD, AMO Kolkata 135 LM-1703 SH. TARUN KANTI RAY IMD, DWR Kolkata 136 LM-1795 SH. TARAK CHANDRA SARKAR IMD, AMO Kolkata 137 LM-1294 SH. UTPAL BHATTACHERJEE IMD, RMC Kolkata 138 LM-520 DR. UTPAL KUMAR DEY Professor (Retired), Jadavpur University 139 LM-1490 DR. UTTAM MUKHOPADHYAY Department of Geography, Vidyasagar college 140 LM-1801 SH. UTTAM SADHUKHAN IMD RMC Kolkata
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