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Environmental Earth Sciences ISSN 1866-6280 Environ Earth SciDOI 10.1007/s12665-014-3618-6

Analysis of transboundary Dojran Lakemean annual water level changes

Ognjen Bonacci, Cvetanka Popovska &Violeta Geshovska

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ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Analysis of transboundary Dojran Lake mean annual water levelchanges

Ognjen Bonacci • Cvetanka Popovska •

Violeta Geshovska

Received: 4 February 2014 / Accepted: 14 August 2014

� Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Abstract Dojran Lake located in south-eastern part of the

Balkan is shared by Macedonia and Greece. This valuable

water body and its ecosystem are vulnerable both to cli-

mate and anthropogenic impacts. Within the period

1988–2002, the Dojran Lake water level decreased seri-

ously (6 m) and the littoral zone of the lake became dry.

This water level decline together with the simultaneous

water quality deterioration resulted in a biodiversity

diminish and plankton reduction. The attack on the eco-

system had a harmful impact on the economy in the region.

In the last decade, the water increasing trend of the lake

water level has been observed. How much the lake is

impacted by natural climatic causes, and how much by

human activities in the watershed, is a question that cannot

be answered easily. The main obstacle for Dojran Lake

sustainable water resources management is the fact that

there is no exchange of data and information between

Greece and Macedonia. Hydrological analysis is obtained

using data measured for the period 1951–2010 at the

meteorological and hydrological Nov Dojran gauging sta-

tions located on the Macedonian side. The aim of the paper

is stimulation of a close international interdisciplinary

monitoring and cooperation. Of crucial importance is to

facilitate the free and unrestricted exchange of data and

information, products and services in real and non-real time

on matters relating to the safety and security of society,

economic welfare and the protection of Dojran Lake

environment.

Keywords Water level � Air temperature � Precipitation �Water balance � Dojran Lake (Macedonia and Greece)

Introduction

Lakes represent for human beings and biota crucial social

and ecological systems. Human activity has profoundly

affected lakes natural state in many parts of the world

(Eyles et al. 2013; Fedotov et al. 2013). Especially critical

situation is in dry and warm regions (Alexakis et al. 2013;

Babamaaji and Lee 2014; Khan et al. 2013). A typical

example is Dojran Lake located in hot and dry Mediter-

ranean region.

Dojran Lake is a tectonic lake shared by Macedonia and

Greece. Its catchment is located between 41�110 and

41�250N and 22�410 and 22�530E (Fig. 1). In Fig. 1 given

lake area corresponds to maximum observed water level.

Within 1989–2002 period, the lake water level

decreased seriously and the large part of the lake littoral

zone became dry. In 2002, the historically lowest water

level was recorded. In this year, the volume of water

dropped to about 60 9 106 m3, which is a water loss of

about 80 % compared to the 1956 year maximum volume

which was 280 9 106 m3. For the same years, the lake area

decreased from about 41.8 to 29.5 km2. This water decline

together with the simultaneous water quality deterioration

resulted in a biodiversity diminish and plankton reduction

(Katsavouni and Petkovski 2004). Also, a number of birds

decreased dramatically. The attack on the ecosystem had a

harmful impact on the regional economy. In the last

O. Bonacci (&)

Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Geodesy, Split

University, Matice hrvatske 15, 21000 Split, Croatia

e-mail: obonacci@gradst.hr

C. Popovska � V. Geshovska

Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Ss Cyril and

Methodius, Partizanski odredi 24, 1000 Skopje, Macedonia

123

Environ Earth Sci

DOI 10.1007/s12665-014-3618-6

Author's personal copy

decade, the increasing trend of the lake water level has

been observed.

How much the lake is impacted by natural causes, and

how much by human activities, is a question that cannot be

answered easily and without close cooperation between

two countries that share the lake and its watershed. The

answers on this question should help in a Water Manage-

ment Plan (WMP) development and implementation in

both countries based on the principles of the Water

Framework Directive (WFD).

This paper deals with hydrological analyses of Dojran

Lake using hydrological and meteorological data from the

Macedonian side only. The hydrological analysis re-

obtained using data measured in the 1951–2010 period on

the Macedonian hydrological and meteorological stations

Nov Dojran (see Fig. 1). With the available data from one

meteorological and one water level gauging stations, it is

not possible to make accurate and reliable lake and its

catchment water budget.

The most reliable hydrological analysis in the case of

internationally shared watershed can be performed only

with complete data, and in close cooperation between both

sites. This paper may be taken as an invitation for a joint

hydrological study between Macedonia and Greece. The

objective of this paper is to present the existing hydro-

logical knowledge to the professional and scientific com-

munity and to encourage bilateral investigation of the

complex and dangerous processes to assess what might be

required for the lake to return to its full shape.

Basic characteristics of Dojran Lake and its watershed

Dojran Lake is a tectonic lake situated in the Balkan

Peninsula with the water level at an average altitude of

146.45 m above sea level (m a.s.l.) in 1952–1988 period. It

has rather regular elliptical shape with a maximum length

of 8.9 km and a maximum width of 7.1 km. The average

depth is 6.5 m and the maximum one is 10.4 m. Figure 2

presents the relationships between: (1) water depth, H, and

volume of water, V, and (2) water depth, H, and water

surface area, A. The water surface of the lake at the ele-

vation of 147.37 m a.s.l. is 42.2 km2 out of which 63.6 %

belongs to Macedonia.

Dojran Lake belongs to the lakes with endorheic

watershed (Loffler 2004). The watershed of this kind of

lakes discharges inland, into a closed lake basin or basins

of ‘‘internal drainage’’. The lake catchment area is

271.8 km2 out of which 32 % belongs to Macedonia, and

68 % to Greece. The lake is recharged from direct runoff,

small rivers and groundwater. It does not have surface

outflow.

The morphological type of its basin is elliptical. The

basic characteristics of Dojran Lake watershed are obtained

by the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) with 30 m resolution,

and by GIS tool for spatial analysis. The watershed length

on the Macedonian side is 33.5 km and on the Greek side,

it is 46.3 km. The highest basin altitude is 1,880 m a.s.l.

Figure 3 presents the hypsometric curve of the Dojran

Lake watershed with its average altitude of 363 m a.s.l.

Fig. 1 The study area location

map

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By forest and semi-natural areas is covered about 64 %

(about 174 km2) of the catchment. Agricultural areas

account for 34 % (about 93 km2), and urban, commercial

and industrial zones, mines and landfills cover less than

2 % (about 5 km2).

The lake was formed in a karstified basin created by a

combination of volcanic and tectonic activity during the

Tertiary. It is a tectonic depression filled with Neogene

Quaternary sediments. The sediments of the lake watershed

are composed of mineral-rich ancient alluvial and lime-

stone sediments. The northern and eastern belts of the

watershed are rocky and covered with low forests and

weeds. Permeable geological structures can be classified

as: (1) incoherent Quaternary sediments; (2) coherent rocks

and (3) carbonate rocks. Incoherent sediments are on the

north and north-west part of the lake and there is a con-

nection between the lake’s water and groundwater.

Coherent, but rather fractured stones of thickness ranging

between 20 and 25 m are found as surface layers on the

north and north-west part of the watershed. Temporary

springs with yields less than 0.5 L/s are detected there.

Permeable carbonate rocks are ranged on the west part of

the lake in the north–south direction.

Climate

The Dojran Lake valley is one of the warmest regions in

this part of the Balkans. The climate is Sub-Mediterranean

which is characterised with higher average, minimum and

maximum monthly air temperatures and with low annual

precipitation.

The climatological regime in the watershed is analysed

with the data measured at Nov Dojran meteorological

station for the period 1951–2010. Problem is that the

location and elevation at 180 m a.s.l. of this station are not

Fig. 2 Two curves which

characterised the morphometry

of Dojran Lake

Fig. 3 Hypsometric curve of

Dojran Lake watershed

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representative for the entire watershed of the lake, but are

suitable for obtaining the precipitation quantity as well as

evaporation over the lake.

It is not possible to determine accurate value of evap-

oration from the large and shallow Dojran Lake as well as

evapotranspiration from its catchment using data from only

one meteorological station. To fulfil this extremely

important task, it will be necessary to organise new dense

continuous monitoring network of different parameters: (1)

air temperature; (2) water temperature; (3) solar radiation;

(4) wind velocity; (5) groundwater level; (6) evaporation

around and on the lake; (7) water level at more than two

existing stations.

Using data from Nov Dojran meteorological station

Gjesovska (2013) calculated by Penman’s method the

annual evaporations which range between 1,056 mm

(1972) and 1,412 mm (1990), with the average annual

value of 1,205 mm (1952–2010 period). The Mayer’s

method values range between 905 mm (1974) and

2,173 mm (1988), with the average annual value of

1,585 mm.

It is very probable that there is an increasing precipita-

tion gradient as the altitude rises, which cannot be

neglected as well as the snowfalls that are feeding the lake

with water. It is very important to establish precipitation

and snow measurements on higher altitudes in the water-

shed that will enable more reliable precipitation–runoff

modelling (Bonacci and Popovska 2006; Popovska and

Bonacci 2008; Geshovska 2012; Gjesovska 2013).

Figure 4 depicts a time series of mean annual precipi-

tation for Nov Dojran for the 1951–2010, and includes

linear and second-order polynomial trend lines. The mini-

mum annual precipitation of 392.2 mm was recorded in

2000 and the maximum of 1,041.5 mm in 2002. The

average annual precipitation is 653.7 mm. A linear trend is

not statistically significant. The second-order polynomial

trend with coefficient of nonlinear correlation of R = 0.370

provides a better fit to the analysed data than a linear one.

Using the Rescaled Adjusted Partial Sums (RAPS) method

(Garbrecht and Fernandez 1994; Popovska and Bonacci

2007; Bonacci et al. 2008), the data series was divided into

two subsets: (1) 1951–2001 and (2) 2002–2010. The dif-

ferences between the averages 629.2 mm for 1951–2001

sub-period, and 761.8 mm for 2002–2010 sub-period are

statistically significant (p \ 0.01).

Figure 5 depicts a time series of mean annual air tem-

perature for Nov Dojran for the 1951–2010, and includes

linear and second-order polynomial trend lines. The mini-

mum average annual air temperature of 13.15 �C was

recorded in 1976 and the maximum of 16.35 �C in 2008.

The average annual air temperature is 14.48 �C. A linear

trend is statistically significant with linear coefficient of

correlation r = 0.447. The second-order polynomial trend

with coefficient of nonlinear correlation of R = 0.773

provides a better fit to the analysed data than a linear one.

Using RAPS method, the data series was divided into two

subsets: (1) 1951–1991 and (2) 1992–2010. The differences

between the averages 14.16 �C for 1951–1991 sub-period,

and 15.16 �C for 1992–2010 sub-period are statistically

significant (p \ 0.01). The lowest average monthly tem-

perature is recorded in January (3.9 �C) and the maximum

in July (24.2 �C).

The relative humidity is 60 %, but it increases to 78 %

in the winter months. The long-term wind speed is 2.3 m/s

with a dominant north and north-west direction.

Previous analyses (Bonacci 2010) showed a strong jump

in regional mean annual temperatures during the last about

20 years, which can influence on the lake hydrological

Fig. 4 Time data series of

registered annual precipitation

at Nov Dojran meteorological

station for the period

1951–2010

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regime. Myronidis et al. (2012) concluded that Dojran

Lake was strongly affected by the intense drought phe-

nomena. However, the exact percentage of drought’s

impact could not be quantified precisely.

Water level and its relationship with precipitation

and air temperature

Time data series of average annual water levels of Dojran

Lake at Nov Dojran hydrological gauging station for the

period 1952–2010 is presented in Fig. 6. The maximum and

minimum measured instantaneous water levels for the whole

analysed period were 311 cm and -388 cm, respectively.

The maximum and minimum average annual water levels

were 244 cm (1956 year) and -360 cm (2002 year),

respectively. The altitude of the datum plane is

144.93 m a.s.l. The average annual water level for the whole

period is 31 cm or 145.24 m a.s.l. As can be seen from

Fig. 6, the water level oscillations within the entire analysed

period are clearly divided into the following three sub-

periods: (1) 1952–1988; (2) 1989–2002 and (3) 2003–2010.

The average water level for the first sub-period

(1952–1988) is 152 cm what is 121 cm higher than the

average water level for the whole analysed period

(1952–2010). In the second and third sub-periods, the

average water levels are -190 and -145 cm, respectively.

They are lower than the average water level for the whole

analysed period 221 and 176 cm, respectively.

Figure 7 presents the relationship between the average

annual water levels, H, and the annual precipitation, P, for

the whole study period 1952–2010. The coefficient of lin-

ear correlation has statistically insignificant negative value,

r = -0.072. It shows that annual precipitation does not

play the crucial role in the lake water level behaviour. A

regression and correlation analysis between the average

annual water level, H, and annual precipitation, P has been

performed for three sub-periods detected for the data series

of the mean annual water level (Fig. 8). The correlation

coefficients have the following very different values: (1)

r = 0.175 (1952–1988); (2) r = -0.440 (1989–2002) and

(3) r = 0.149 (2003–2010). It should be taken in mind that

two last sub-series are very short.

Figure 9 presents the relationship between the average

annual water levels, H, and the mean annual air tempera-

ture, T, for the whole study period 1952–2010. The coef-

ficient of linear correlation has statistically significant

negative value, r = -0.573. It represents the confirmation

that the annual air temperature plays the crucial role in the

lake water level behaviour. A regression and correlation

analysis between the average annual water level, H, and

mean annual air temperature, T has been performed for

three sub-periods detected for the data series of the mean

annual water level (Fig. 10). The correlation coefficients

have the following very different values: (1) r = 0.049

(1952–1988); (2) r = -0.535 (1989–2002) and (3)

r = 0.774 (2003–2010). For the first sub-period, the rela-

tion between precipitation and water level oscillations is

insignificant, while for the last two sub-periods the corre-

lation coefficient is higher. It should be taken in mind that

two last sub-series are very short.

In the first sub-period (1952–1988), the mean annual

water levels are rather stable. The water regime in this sub-

period may be recognised as a stable, natural or not dis-

turbed. It seems that air temperature plays more important

role in the lake water level oscillation than precipitations.

In the second sub-period (1989–2002), the water level

has strong decreasing trend. Severe decreasing of water

Fig. 5 Time data series of

average annual air temperature

at Nov Dojran meteorological

station for the period

1951–2010

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Fig. 6 Time data series of

average annual water levels for

Dojran Lake at the Nov Dojran

hydrological station for the

period 1952–2010

Fig. 7 Relationship between

average annual water levels, H,

and annual precipitation, P, with

a linear trend line for the period

1952–2010

Fig. 8 Relationship between

average annual water levels, H,

and average annual air

temperature, T, with a linear

trend line for the period

1952–2010

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level in this shallow Mediterranean lake can be caused by

strong jump in air temperatures (Bonacci 2010). It is

obvious that during this sub-period the crucial role on the

lake water level decreasing plays strong jump in air

temperature.

In the third sub-period, water level increasing can be

explained by natural and artificial impacts. Natural impact

may be referred to the precipitation increase. The contin-

uous lake water level rising started in November 2003. The

artificial or anthropogenic impact may be referred to the

construction and start of operation of the Gjavato well

system on the Macedonian side for additional water

delivery into the lake. The constructed system includes:

two-stage pumping from the wells in Gjavato near the

Vardar River, the outlet basin in Bogdanci village, a

gravity pipeline (L = 19.3 km), another outlet basin near

Toplec and an open canal with an outlet to the lake

(L = 0.6 km).

In addition, delivered water from another watershed by

the pumping system constructed in 2002 on the Macedo-

nian side has maximum capacity of 1,000 L/s, but the

system never operated at full capacity. Exact data of water

delivered through this system do not exist. The water from

the wells in Gjevato is used for irrigation along the gravity

pipeline and the open canal (mostly illegally). At the same

time, there is significant, but non-controlled loss of water in

the system.

Groundwater recharge into the lake was estimated at

60 L/s based on the hydrogeological map on the Macedo-

nian side only. Since there is no groundwater monitoring

system in the watershed and no hydrogeological data from

the Greek side of the watershed, it may not be said that

there is no different groundwater inflow into the lake, as

well as possible groundwater outflow. Groundwater inflow

does not have impact on water levels simulation (Ges-

hovska 2012).

Fig. 9 Three relationships

between average annual water

levels, H, and annual

precipitation, P, with a linear

trend lines for there sub-periods

Fig. 10 Three relationships

between average annual water

levels, H, and average annual air

temperature, T, with a linear

trend line for three sub-periods

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Conclusions

Dojran Lake is an internationally shared water body

extremely important for both countries, which suffer from

water shortage. The main obstacle for Dojran Lake sus-

tainable water resources management is the fact that there

is no exchange of data and information between Greece

and Macedonia. Hydrological, hydrogeological and cli-

matological parameters are of crucial importance for

achieving this goal. The analyses and calculations per-

formed in this paper are based on the data from the Mac-

edonian gauge stations. Unfortunately, data from Greece

were not available. Due to this fact, the main goal of this

paper is to put forward a scientific discussion and coop-

eration between the two sides.

Transboundary hydrological, hydrogeological and

environmental monitoring is a prerequisite for informed

decision making for the protection, management and

development of Dojran Lake. To enable lake sustainable

development the crucial question is ‘‘Do we have compa-

rable hydrological data for transboundary cooperation?’’

(Buzas 2011). The systematically internationally cooper-

ated continuous hydrological and meteorological mea-

surements made possible a new scientific explanation of

the hydrological functioning of Dojran Lake.

A strong increasing trend of air temperature is estab-

lished. Because of this, it is realistic to expect more

problems for the lake water resources management. More

detailed research is needed to better understand and explain

the impact of the air temperature rising, precipitation var-

iability, occurrence of longer and more severe droughts and

especially anthropogenic influences in the lake catchment.

It is obvious that Dojran Lake has to better prepare for

unsafe and unfavourable climatic conditions which should

be expected in the near future.

Myronidis et al. (2012) explained the rapid decrease of

Dojran Lake water level with drought phenomena. Drought

characteristics were revealed by employing the Standard-

ised Precipitation Index in different scales. They did not

analyse the possible influence of anthropogenic actions in

the catchment. An intense drought magnitude was noted

from 1985 to 2002. The summer had the strongest

decreasing trend as compared to the winter. Myronidis

et al. (2012) concluded that the exact percentage of the

drought’s influence could not be quantified precisely, since

it was not the only driver responsible for the lowering of

the lake‘s water level.

The aim of the paper is stimulation of a close interna-

tional interdisciplinary monitoring and cooperation (hy-

drologists, hydrogeologists, ecologists, water resources

managers etc.), which would provide better results in the

watershed management as well as in preserving vulnerable

Dojran Lake and its valuable aquatic and terrestrial

ecosystems.

The fact is that the existing measurements and related

conclusions did not provide a detailed understanding of the

hydrogeological–hydrological processes occurring in the

lake and its watershed, but they did provide a better insight

into the complex processes of the inflow and outflow of

water in and out of the lake. The need for additional and

better-organised measurements is crucial. First of all, it is

necessary to organise and exchange the continuous mea-

surement of the hydrological, hydrogeological and clima-

tological parameters crucial for precise determination of

Dojran Lake water budget (Manley et al. 2008). Of special

importance is the necessity to drill several deep piezome-

ters around the lake to determine the direction of local

groundwater circulation and to determine the influence of

numerous and uncontrolled anthropogenic interventions on

the process of water behaviour in the lake in its neigh-

bouring groundwater as well as in the whole catchment.

Monitoring of the water quality parameters of the lake

water and groundwater in different periods of the year is

also necessary.

To make possible the calculation of a more detailed and

accurate water budget, the relatively dense network of rain

gauging stations in the mountainous part of the catchment

is required. The famous and valuable Dojran Lake deserves

a much greater attention from international scientific and

public community. Of crucial importance is to facilitate the

free and unrestricted exchange of data and information,

products and services in real and non-real time on matters

relating to the safety and security of society, economic

welfare and the protection of the Dojran Lake environment.

Unfortunately, present-day situation is far from the previ-

ously mentioned goals.

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