An Overview of Independent National ElectoralCommission (INEC): An Empirical Analysis of the

Permanent Voter’s Card and Goodluck EbeleJonathan Predicted Victory in 2015

By

Akharumere Augustine Ohiobrain

A Partial Fulfillment of A-Brace ConceptInitiative towards PDP Triumphant Victory in the

Presidential/National Assembly andGubernatorial/State Assembly Elections

March, 2015Abstract

This paper examines the overview of INEC PVC registration and collection. It alsoevaluated the relationship between predicted percentage of PDP winning marginand predicted percentage of APC winning margin. The ordinary Least Squaresregression and Error Correction Model was used to estimate the variables. It wasseen that there exist a positive correlation between numbers of registered votersand numbers of PVC collected across the thirty six states of the Federationincluding the FCT. Also, predicted percentage of PDP triumphant victory in thepresidential/National Assembly and Gubernatorial/State Assembly out weigh thepredicted percentage of APC winning margin. In addition, there exists a negativerelationship between predicted percentage of PDP winning margin and predictedpercentage of APC winning margin. Finally, ECM is negative that is 1.00212 andsignificant at 95 per cent confidence interval. It is pertinent that Nigerian isabout to witness a remarkable election in the history of the country and everyoneis admonished to take full delivery of this democratic package of exercising ourcivil rights. This paper employs mitigate violence and embrace the spirit ofbrotherhood in these forthcoming elections. This paper assures every Nigeriansto vote for Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to experience diverse transformations in ourvarious sectors of the economy.

Keywords: Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. INEC, PDP, APC.

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Chapter one: Introduction

1.1 Background of the Paper

The re-election of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan appears

unavoidable according to some survey conducted by major

international and national political risk analysis agencies. The

surveys from Eurasia Group, Kelvin, Charlyn and Kimberly

Associates and Diaspora Nigeria Nationals Networks (DNNet), all

returned positives for Goodluck Ebele Jonathan in the March 28

presidential election.

Instructively, the emerging trend will crystallize on Saturday,

March 28, 2015 when the election is scheduled to hold. Apart from

Goodluck Ebele Jonathan who is the flag bearer of the ruling

People’s Democratic Party (PDP), no fewer than 13 other political

parties is presenting candidates for same office.

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However, earlier reports indicated that former military dictator

and candidate of the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC),

Gen. Muhammadu Buhari presents the closest opposition to Goodluck

Ebele Jonathan. The latter was also Goodluck Ebele Jonathan’s

opponent in 2011.

Therefore, the paper shall consider the overview of INEC

activities and undertake an eclectic and empirical analysis of

the permanent voter’s card registration and collection. It will

also examine predictions of Goodluck Ebele Jonathan’s triumphant

victory in the 2015 presidential election across the nation.

1.2 Aims and Objectives

The aims of the paper are to examine the impact of PVC collection

on registered voters; and the predicted winning of APC on PDP.

However, the specific objectives are:

To determine the impact of the number of collected PVC on

number of registered voter in Nigeria;

To evaluate the trend in the predicted battle ground state

to the registered voter in Nigeria;

To examine the impact of predicted percentage of APC winning

margin on predicted percentage of PDP winning margin.

1.3 Research Statement

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The following are the null hypotheses to be determined:

There is no significant relationship between number of

collected PVC and number of registered voter;

There is no significant relationship between the trend in

the predicted battle ground state and the registered voters;

There is no significant relationship between predicted

percentages of APC winning margin and predicted percentage

of PDP winning margin.

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Chapter Two: Literature Review

2.1 Conceptual Framework

The challenge of administering the electoral process and its

composite structures in an evolving democratic system as Nigeria

entails dealing with complexities many of which are unforeseen.

Our country is far more diverse, complex and fragmented than most

people realize.

 

Over time, Chief Electoral Commissioners of the country and other

senior officers of the Electoral Commission have come to terms

with this challenge as part of their duty to the nation. Over

time however, it has become obvious too that there can be no

limit to the complexity and plots of politics in Nigeria.

Managing the electoral process in Nigeria is therefore, not only

all about administering elections and matters directly pertaining

to the process. It entails far more than that.

 It is quite obvious that the developmental challenge before

Nigeria is gross and multiple. It has been so for a long time.

Increasingly, however, the challenges of Nigeria’s national

existence are steadily being compounded by the failure or refusal

of the leadership elite to squarely address certain elementary

issues as every purposeful country does.

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The need for an unambiguous and candid definition of the very

essence of being of the Nigerian state, as well as a clear

outline of the moral and operational principles of conduct within

our society has become rather urgent. To a reasonable extent, it

can be understood why the predominant concern – real or contrived

- of public discourse in recent times is focused on elections and

electoral matters. In truth however, much more about the social

dynamics and processes within the Nigerian state require profound

evaluation and reform. We shall return to that. 

2.2 Conspiratorial Preoccupation by a Few

Once again, I make bold to state in a public discourse that there

is a limit to the distance our dear country, or indeed any other

country can go under such a prevailing situation as we live

today, marked essentially by denial of reality and a

conspiratorial preoccupation with finger pointing, mob action and

unending parochial plots prompted in the main by nothing else but

calculations of the interest of a few within the fold of the

political elite.

The elite or better still the elite with means have never hidden

their ambition to control the actual power and influence in the

society. This reality for instance is at the root of the system

of Electoral College in the United States of America, a system

which allows the majority to vote for the presidential candidate

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of their choice, but leaves the actual power of choosing the

winner of a presidential race to a minority.

As Vidal quotes a Supreme Court Justice as coldly pointing out

during the testy dispute over the result of the presidential

election in USA in 2000, “the Constitution (of United States of

America) does not provide any American citizen the right to vote

for president”. (ibid. p. 137) That weighty duty in that bastion

of democracy is reserved for a few - the Electoral College. But

the law, the Constitution of the United States of America

provides for that and the influence is wielded with decorum.

For a young state as ours, “the sad development is that Nigerian

politics has receded from the arena of public trust to the

worship of private denizens and enthronement of private mores and

ethics”. (Madubuike: 2007)

*Being lecture presented at the Senior Executive Course 31 of the

National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies, Kuru, Jos in

February, 2009.

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**Professor Maurice Iwu is the Chairman of the Independent

National Electoral Commission (INEC)

2.3 Need for Reforms

The need for reform in the Nigerian society is much more

comprehensive than is being discussed today. There is for one, a

very urgent need for reform of the mentality of the political and

leadership elite.

Reforms in their most meaningful character are not isolated but

compound packages. The electoral process itself is also

increasingly exposed to a much greater array of ‘outside’

forces.  These outside forces, including economic policies,

widening of the national social distance and the growing

importance of international structures and agreements that impact

on the electoral process are more complex, multi-sourced and

multi-dimensional than ever before.

2.3.1 The Nexus in Political and Economic Processes

The inextricable link between economics and politics within the

modern human society is well known. This nexus leaves us with a

glaring reality for instance, that sooner than later what is

currently discussed as an economic phenomenon – the global

economic problem otherwise known as the economic meltdown – may

lead to meltdowns in such other closely related realms as

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politics and even social life if care is not taken. Even with the

present scope of the global economic problem therefore, the

nightmare is not so much of what is already at hand but with what

may yet lie ahead.

As it turns out, very few societies, if any, have solid economic

foundation without a matching stable political foundation and

system and vice versa. Understood from this sobering perspective,

the enormity of the challenge before Nigeria in the current

global economic difficulties and its internal efforts to

strengthen its democratic base becomes clearer. Here lies the

root of the imperative for Nigeria to address in a very

deliberate and definitive sense, basic issues at the foundation

of its political and economic processes.

The actual issue of the moment as some continues to cast it is

not reform of the electoral process in isolation. Important as

that may be, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive reform

that will at once encompass the intertwined spheres of politics

and economics. The reform that beckons to Nigeria is that which

will address among others, the access to money by individuals and

the limit to which that can be used in the realm of politics;

exposure of the majority within the society to exploitation,

abuse and denial of their basic rights by those who cornered

their common wealth in the first place; citizenship rights and

opportunity available to every citizen to aspire and attain

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position of prominence whether in politics, the professions or

public service, based primarily on talent and ability and not on

the size of the pocket; obedience to the rule of law by all

citizens and all groups and how best to enforce the pre-eminence

of the laws of the land.

Reform must be anchored on government’s ability to anticipate the

national needs rather than in response to crises that arise when

those needs are unmet or as a knee-jerk reaction to contrived

emergencies by opposition groups. As the OECD clearly noted in

its policy review on ‘Governments of the Future’: The Challenge

of Government is to move away from opportunistic reform towards more

strategic reform. Strategic reform involves developing a clear

vision, building a constituency, planning tactics to achieve

outcomes and communicating the vision and anticipated outcomes to

stakeholders and the public at large.(OECD: 2000)

2.3.2 Electoral Reform and the Seven Point Agenda

The appreciation of the imperative for a compound re-assessment

of the state of the Nigerian nation is obviously the very basis

of the simultaneous launching out by the Federal Government with

the respective policy thrusts of the Seven Point Agenda and the

electoral reform initiative.

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In outlining the basic areas of (1) Power and Energy (2) Food

Security and Agriculture (3) Wealth Creation and Employment (4)

Mass Transportation (5) Land Reform (6) Security and the Niger

Delta and (7) Qualitative and functional education as its primary

focus under a seven point agenda, the Government of President

Umar Musa Yar’Adua aligns itself to a focused pursuit of good

governance, the direct expression of which manifests in the

provision of the basic necessities of life to the citizenry.

Although the vision or aspiration to develop Nigeria into one of

the first 20 economies of the world by 2020 is linked to the

seven Point Agenda, in that the achievement of the latter can and

will definitely boost the spirit of enterprise by the Nigerian

fettered by backward infrastructure and daily struggle to

overcome poverty. The two policy pursuits are not of equal

importance in the scale of good governance and need of the

Nigerian citizen.

“...Good Governance as Pre-requsite for the realization of Vision 20-2020 and

the seven point Agenda” rightly establishes once more the

inextricable link between politics and economics. In other words,

to get the economic bearing of the nation right and to attain the

lofty economic goals of the country in the future, the political

bearing just have to be right too. Conversely, to get the

politics right - electoral reforms and all that- the dynamics

within the economy including the basic discipline in the

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allocation of resources and use of even private fund must be

reined in. That is the way it is in every other society that has

succeeded in establishing order and the rule of the law.

The bane of Nigeria’s political and economic development has not

been so much of lack of idea - even in the market place - of what

needs to be done as a failure of will and commitment to do the

right things. As it has been in the economy, so it has been in

politics.

 The very fact for instance, that the issues which make up the

Seven point Agenda are still basic problems in our society and

therefore are of primary concern for the government of the day

speak of the prolonged failure of the Nigerian state to overcome

basic impediments to its development. In truth, as Dan Agbese

pointed out in a different context in a different era, “The

promise to take on these problems had a familiar ring but it

reflected how truly slowly the country had travelled even in its

undue haste in the years of military rule”(Agbese: 2000)

The poignant quote above rings true to various efforts today in

the realms of politics and economics, even as it does not in any

way vitiate the need and the commitment to lift the processes of

our national life to a higher pedestal. The essence of a reform

after all, is to ensure consistent enhancement of structures and

elements of a chosen sphere of human activities. This is the

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point that seems to be badly missed by those who seem to

understand the present initiative for reform in the electoral

process as an event and not a process.

2.4 Politics and Electoral Democracy: the Paradox of Aspiration

and Reality

The trajectory of Nigeria’s politics and electoral democracy has

not been any different from the track and character of Nigeria’s

national life in it’s nearly half a century existence as a

sovereign state. On one hand there is a lofty ambition and

aspiration to have the best. On the other hand strangely, there

is always a proclivity for tendencies that can only yield the

opposite of the declared aspiration for lofty ends. The outcome

of this contradiction has been a consistent gap between where the

country and its people will like to be and where they truly are.

And when the reality comes home as it invariably does, the

unfortunate and unhelpful recourse seems to be to look for a

scape goat and to sink deeper into denial of the truth instead of

confronting the challenges.

Even at this, there has been some remarkable progress in both the

realm of political development and economic performance in

Nigeria especially in the last decade. The challenge is how to

manage the progress and also how best to checkmate the ploy of

the self-serving elite clique that has no qualms about derailing

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the progress of the society if they cannot control the trajectory

of development.

2.5 The 2007 Elections and the Environment

It is now ten years since Nigeria resumed the path of electoral

democracy. This is the longest the country has been on the road

of democracy. That in itself is progress. Progress is being on a

positive path where one had not attained hitherto.

On this pedestal, the truth about democracy and the electoral

process in the country which is solidly standing before the

world, but which some people are struggling to deny is that the

2007 elections were a landmark for the country.

Those who insist on celebrating the lapses in the 2007 elections

have not been sincere to themselves and they have not been

charitable to the nation. The germane questions to ask before

searching for lapses to hold up about the elections are; what

have been the foundation and the texture of the country’s

democratic system or the background to the elections that would

support anyone expecting a flawless process? Two, what were the

very roles of the respective individuals in the establishment of

a conducive setting for the flawless elections they now proclaim

a taste for?

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The contradictions of Nigeria’s political environment are simply

huge and the dishonesty of those who are presently hoodwinking

the larger society by turning on the Electoral Commission

reflects the enormity of the challenge of political development

in the country.

Here is a system in which individuals primitively acquire such

enormity of resources that embolden them to challenge the state

and become laws unto themselves with their  own army and all; a

system in which political parties brazenly deny their members who

won primaries the

ticket they won and allocate same to others for one reason or

another; a system in which some individuals solely pick

candidates for a political party in an election; a setting in

which majority of the political aspirants do not believe there is

any benefit in campaigning and convincing the electorate, but

that with money and massive arsenal of coercion the electorate

will be subdued; an environment in which politicians are

perpetually bidding to buy electoral officers, often at sums of

money that could transform a whole town; a system in which the

very laws guiding elections are not known until few months to the

elections – this is the environment of Nigeria’s electoral

democracy from whence elections without flaws are expected.

How does the society curb the excesses of individuals and ensure

that all citizens are subject to the same law, irrespective of

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their position or wealth? This should be the beginning of the

reform not only of the electoral process in Nigeria, but also of

all social engagement therein.

 

While it is true that “despite the mechanisms that elicit or

enforce conformity, no society or group within society is ever

totally free from some disregard for its standards of propriety,

some deviation from its norm…” (Chinoy : 1967) what cannot be in

tandem with a society in genuine pursuit of development is a

situation in which political warlords thrive, each a controller

of as vast a section of the society as his resources and army can

control. There is nothing democratic in such a setting and the

condition cannot be conducive for a flawless election. Such

certainly, is not the environment of election in United States of

America. Such is not the setting in Ghana.

It is not difficult to establish against the backdrop of  such

troubled electoral system as we have that reform is imperative if

the country expects to achieve not just the visions captured in

Vision 20-2020 and the Seven Point Agenda, but also all other

aspirations and targets of social and economic development. 

2.6 INEC, Reforms and the Electoral Process

Reforms are healthy and desirable undertakings. There is indeed,

nothing esoteric and far away in them, not in an electoral reform

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as a means to enhancing the electoral process and political

development of the society. It is one of those weaknesses or

distortions in the appreciation of public policy and governance

issues in our society that a necessary matter of electoral reform

has been made to acquire the connotation of another political

campaign slogan. It is not so.

 

It has also been suggested recently by Alhaji Adamu in a recent

opinion piece in the Daily Trust newspaper that the orchestrated

and persistent attack on the Commission and its leadership is

only an attempt to install a leadership that will do the bidding

of the sponsors of these attacks.  As he put it: “Now that 2011

elections are around the corner, politicians are back at their

old games, this time, from what I can see from media reports, the

idea is to push Iwu out and scheme in their preferred candidates

with the plan to get their chosen chairman of the EMB to help

them win elections.”(Hamisu: 2009)

Electoral reform, especially in an evolving democracy in a

heterogeneous society  -- marked variously by rampaging primitive

accumulation of resources and unrestrained deployment of the

resources, pocket nationalism, weak enforcement of the laws of

the land, a stubborn persistence of the syndrome of the African

big man with its attendant disdain for the laws of the land and

sundry manifestations of indiscipline --  simply entails taking

steps to reinforce the structures of the system and strengthening

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the capacity of the system to enforce compliance to the guiding

rules of engagement in the realm.

It is important to note at this point that the electoral system

is a composite entity. It consists of multiple stakeholders and

participants all of whose conducts and activities impact on the

progress or otherwise of the processes that build up the system.

As the challenging 2007 election experience showed so tellingly,”

even for the comprehensive preparation, the Electoral Commission

had little control over the tendencies and actions of the

political class, as well as the political environment that

prevailed before and during the elections”. (INEC: 2007)

Any understanding of reform or necessity for reform of Nigeria’s

electoral process as entailing nothing more but changes within

the Election Management Body is, indeed, puerile.

The electoral processes in Nigeria are still tender and evolving.

With uninterrupted democratic governance having only thrived for

ten years and this coming on the heels of prolonged military rule

with its impact on the mentality and values of the society, the

structures of electoral democracy in the society are yet to

stabilize. The leadership of the Independent National Electoral

Commission realized right from the onset that the environment of

election in the country is still not only fragile, but is loaded

with inadequacies which must be addressed effectively for them

not to overwhelm both the elections and the election management

body.

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Indeed, very early in its preparation for the 2007 elections, the

Commission identified some critical issues which needed to be

tackled for a conducive environment of elections to be secured in

the country.(Iwu: 2007) These problem issues were isolated under

four basic headings; (a) the ever looming danger of violence in

elections, (b) the pervasive use and influence of money in

elections, (c) gender inequity in politics and (d) the unhealthy

mindset of Nigerians on election.

The Commission has always realized the need for reforms in the

election management body and its operations. The last three and

half years have indeed been marked by profound reforms in the

electoral process and management. The numerous changes introduced

within the process through these years are seen rightly as means

to a better and stronger electoral process in the future and as

an adaptive response to problems observed in past elections.

There are three fundamental criteria for evaluating an electoral

reform: a) technical merit, b) to achieve a true break from the

past error or practice that the society will want to correct, and

c) legitimacy. Most of the sponsored suggestions in the pages of

newspapers and other mass media are not aimed at enhancing the

electoral process but actually to undermine it.

 

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One of the major innovations introduced in the 2006 Act is the

establishment of the Independent National Electoral Commission

Fund (Section 3 of the Electoral Act) and Section 4

of the Act also provides for the establishment of yet a separate

fund to defray all expenditure incurred by the Commission except

those included under the INEC Fund.  Full implementation of the

two clauses of the Act will go along way towards ensuring

financial autonomy of INEC and the much canvassed independence of

the Commission.

As part of its efforts to have in place skilled and competent

electoral management staff as well as knowledgeable ad-hoc

personnel, the Commission established ‘The Electoral Institute’.  A

major reform measure conceived as a coordination mechanism to

achieve sustainable capacity development of various cadres of

personnel.  The basic goals of the Institute are to facilitate

capacity building and professionalism in the Commission through

training and manpower development of the Commission’s staff;

engage in vigorous voter education activities with a view to

achieving an increased and effective participation of the

electorates in the electoral process; and to carry out electoral

research and documentation.

Another major change introduced since 2005 is the direct

appointment of the Secretary of the INEC by the Commission

itself, a position which hitherto was made by the Federal

Government through the secondment of serving permanent

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secretary.   Other changes introduced in the 2006 Electoral Act

following submission by the Commission include:

1. The conduct of voter and civil education by INEC;

2. Closure of Registration of Voters and Political Parties at

least 120 days and 180 days respectively before elections;

3. Notice of Election given 150 days before date of general

election;

4. Submission of lists of candidates not later than 120 days

before the date of election;

5. Change/replacement of candidates to be made not later than

90 days before date of election;

6. Determination of maximum election expenses for candidates to

various offices to check the negative influence of money in

politics; and

7. More stringent punishments for electoral offences as

deterrence to violence and perpetration of electoral fraud

in elections.

The introduction of the electronic voters register - a dynamic

system that has put behind Nigerians the rather strenuous

practice of the whole country queuing up for a few weeks just to

register to vote in elections stands as one of the key reforms of

the electoral process in recent years. Then there was the

introduction before the 2007 elections of the Political party

Finance Manual, a publication which introduced a certain order

and accountability in the management of political party finances.

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In the wake of the 2007 elections and the disenchantment with the

ad hoc staff recruited literally from the streets to help conduct

elections, the Commission has incorporated the members of the

National Youth Service Corps as a critical part of election

conduct in the country.  This has led to a great improvement in

the conduct of elections as observed in the re-run elections.

The Commission has also embarked on the delimitation of

constituencies in order to correct the imbalance in the present

electoral map.  A fair and accurate delimitation process is

fundamental to the long-term political stability of

representative governance.  The present districting of the

country into 109 Senatorial districts, 360 Federal Constituencies

and 990 State Constituencies was carried out 12 years ago by the

defunct National Electoral Commission.  There are serious

deficiencies in the existing electoral map, which should be

corrected before the 2011 general elections. INEC has initiated

the development of a Delimitation Action Plan, which will provide

a technical platform for the more equitable delineation of

electoral constituencies in the country.  The 1999 Constitution

mandates the Commission to undertake periodic review of the

division of State and Federal Constituencies at intervals of not

less than ten years or after a census.  The delimitation exercise

will provide the nation the opportunity not only to correct some

of the errors and imbalances in the present division but also to

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establish a technical platform to address the sensitive issue of

minority representation. Again, this will reduce potential areas

of conflict and violence during elections.

These are crucial reforms of the electoral process initiated on

its won by the Election management Body. Reform of the Election

Management Body without a matching reform in the surrounding

system and the orientation of participants in the general process

is however, seriously handicapped.

While there can be no denying the existence of weaknesses and

shortcomings in some aspects of the operations of the election

management Body, the truth is that the current campaign to shift

every attention of electoral reform to the Electoral commission

is nothing more but a deliberate ploy by political interest

groups to divert attention from the issues that really need to be

tackled. “It may be painful and unflattering to acknowledge, but

the reality is that Nigeria, though mightily endowed, has

continued to be held down by bankrupt policies and self-serving

politicians. Thus has the country remained a largely

underdeveloped political system, a place where election is more

often than not defined by key participants in the process as war

by another name?” (Ibid: 2007)

So much has been improved upon in Nigeria’s electoral system in

the last few years, but so much still requires to be done. The

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reform of the electoral process must, as of necessity, be

consistent, deliberate and extensive. It needs to be emphasized

however, that the greatest corrosive damage to the electoral

process in the land is wrought more by the self-serving and

contemptuous conduct of few members of the political elite – the

deep pockets – than any other factor.  As these same entities

seize the front row of the moment to become prominent chorus

leaders and proponents of electoral reform, the danger of

distortion to the profound reform the system craves is apparent.

The basis for reform of Nigeria’s electoral processes is clear

and unarguable. What is at issue is whether the country will put

its hands on the right spot of its needs. For a nation that has

over time shown a certain disturbing inclination to ambivalence

in matters that should attract very serious attention from it,

the fear exits no less about the prospect of the current sing

song of electoral reform.

There are actually only four outstanding areas of suggested

reform of the electoral process, which will require

constitutional amendment. These are:

I) Mode of Appointment of Chairman and Members of the

Commission as well as the Resident Electoral

Commissioners;

II) Funding of the Commission through the first charge on the

Consolidated Revenue Fund;

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III) Adjudication of post-election disputes before the

swearing-in of the declared winners; and

IV) Introduction of a system of proportional representation.

The adoption of the proposal that the quarterly meeting of the

Commission with the leadership of Nigeria’s registered political

parties is to take place on a monthly basis by the INEC Chairman,

Professor Attahiru Jega, was due to the 2015 General Elections,

there was the need to have the meetings on a monthly basis in

order to “afford us a better opportunity to deliberate and

resolve all matters arising related to the preparations, swiftly,

as and when due. Professor Jega who was addressing the third

quarterly meeting of INEC and the political parties noted

that the quarterly meetings had helped to improve communication

between the Commission and the registered political parties, as

well as enhance mutual trust and confidence. He expressed the

appreciation of the Commission to all registered political

parties for their understanding and co-operation which he noted

had gone a long way to facilitate the electoral reforms so far

carried out by INEC.

The INEC Chairman urged all political parties to commit

themselves to lawful and peaceful electioneering leading to the

2015 general elections. He stressed that the Commission and

political parties “must continue to work assiduously together to

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make our elections free, fair and credible, and to deepen

democracy in Nigeria.” In his remarks at the meeting, the

Chairman of the Interparty Advisory Council (IPAC), Dr. Yunusa

Tanko, urged the Commission to stop the escalation of illegal

third party election campaigns. Dr. Tanko alleged that a number

of political parties had started illegal campaigns using rallies,

processions, fund raising activities and public advertisement on

land, air and waterways. He also alleged that such parties were

using public places to display posters, billboards and handbills

to canvass for certain candidates before the 90 days window to

the general elections as provided by law. Dr. Yunusa called on

INEC to wake up to its responsibilities and put an immediate end

to third party campaigning.

In a statement dated 26th September 2014 entitled: “Caution On

Illegal Public Political Broadcast And Campaign” and addressed to

all National Chairmen of registered political parties,

corporate entities, associations and the general public, the

Commission said its attention had been drawn to the insistent

illegal campaigns carried out by Associations, Corporate

entities, Individuals, Public and Private Media and other

Communication Agencies in the country in contravention of the

provisions of the 1999 Constitution (As Amended) and the

Electoral Act 2010 (As Amended) on limitation of political

broadcasts. In the statement which was signed by the Secretary to

the Commission, Mrs. Augusta C. Ogakwu, the Commission stressed

that Section 99 of the Electoral Act 2010 (As Amended) prohibited

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broadcast and political campaign earlier than ninety (90) days

before polling day.

Section 99 (1) of the Electoral Act 2010 (As Amended) reads: “For

the purpose of this Act, the period of campaigning in public by every political party shall

commence 90 days before polling day and end 24 hours prior to that day”. Relevant

Extracts of the Electoral Act 2010 (As Amended) have since been

reproduced and circulated by the Com-mission at public places, to

media outfits, the Ministry of Information, National Orientation

Agency (NOA), National Communication Commission (NCC) Head-

quarters of Interparty Advisory Council (IPAC), Headquarters of

State, FCT, Local Government Area offices of INEC and the Federal

Ministry of Environment for their information and proper

guidance.

In a statement dated 26th September 2014 entitled: “Caution On

Illegal Public Political Broadcast And Campaign” and addressed to

all National Chairmen of registered political parties,

corporate entities, associations and the general public, the

Commission said its attention had been drawn to the insistent

illegal campaigns carried out by Associations, Corporate

entities, Individuals, Public and Private Media and other

Communication Agencijjes in the country in contravention of the

provisions of the 1999 Constitution (As Amended) and the

Electoral Act 2010 (As Amended) on limitation of political

broadcasts. In the statement which was signed by the Secretary to

the Commission, Mrs. Augusta C. Ogakwu, the Commission stressed

28 | P a g e

that Section 99 of the Electoral Act 2010 (As Amended) prohibited

broadcast and political campaign earlier than ninety (90) days

before polling day.

29 | P a g e

Chapter Three: Theoretical Framework and Methodology

3.1 Model Specification and Analytical Framework

The analytical framework adopted in this paper is quantitative in

nature. However, it shall also be adopted in the methodology.

Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) shall be used to examine the

correlation between PVC Collection and Registered Voters. Also,

Error Correction Model (ECM) shall be used to estimate the

relationship between predicted percentage of APC winning margin

and predicted percentage of PDP winning margin.

Therefore the models can be specified as:

NRVs = β0 + β1NCVs + DUM + £s …………………. (3.1)

Where NRV = Number of Registered Voters;

NCV = Number of PVC collected;

DUM : 1 = PDP predicted winning states 0 = APC predicted

winning states;

β0 = Intercept;

β1 = Parameter to be determined;

£ = Error Term;

S = 36 states including the FCT.

30 | P a g e

Also we have:

ΔΔPDPs = α0 + α1ΔΔAPCs + μs-1 + ∂s

Where PDP = Predicted Percentage of PDP winning margin;

APC = Predicted Percentage of APC winning margin;

ΔΔ = Second difference operator;

α0 = Intercept;

α1 = Parameter to be determined;

μs-1 = One Lagged Residuals from the First difference

operator;

∂ = Error Term;

S = 36 states including the FCT.

3.2 A priori Expectation

It is expected that all the value of the parameters are positive

31 | P a g e

Chapter Four: Empirical Finding and Result Discussion

Table 4.1 Statistical Summary on INEC PVC registration and Collection

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R

0.963669

R Square0.92865

8Adjusted R Square

0.924461

Standard Error

0.124369

Observations 37

ANOVA

  df SS MS FSignificanc

e F

32 | P a g e

Regression 2

6.845602

3.422801

221.2875 3.21E-20

Residual 340.5259

010.0154

68

Total 367.3715

03      

 Coefficient

sStandard

Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper95%

Lower99.0%

Upper99.0%

Intercept1.17664

80.6255

021.8811

270.0685

41 -0.094522.4478

21

-0.5299

7 2.883264

NCV0.92703

10.0441

620.992

564.84E-

21 0.8372871.0167

750.8065

45 1.047517

DUMMY 0.077810.0447

41.7391

570.0910

55 -0.013110.1687

33

-0.0442

6 0.199878Source: Author’s Composition

It can be seen that there exist a positive correlation between

numbers of registered voters and numbers of PVC collected across

the thirty six states of the Federation including the FCT. This

means that 1 per cent rise in numbers of PVC collected would lead

to 0.93 per cent rise in number of registered voters in the

country. This is clear indications of INEC commitment to conduct

a credible election in the forthcoming election in Nigeria. Also

DUMMY variable suggest that predicted percentage of PDP

triumphant victory in the presidential/National Assembly and

Gubernatorial/State Assembly out weigh the predicted percentage

of APC winning margin by 0.08 per cent. This is evident in the

achievements of Goodluck Ebele Jonathan’s in all sectors of the

economy.

Table 4.2 Statistical Summary of Error Correction Model for

Goodluck Ebele Jonathan’s Presidential Election

33 | P a g e

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.961266R Square 0.924033Adjusted R Square 0.919565Standard Error 17.37306Observations 37

ANOVA

  df SS MS FSignificance

FRegression 2

124823.2

62411.62

206.782 9.35E-20

Residual 3410261.9

9301.82

33

Total 36135085.

2      

  CoefficientsStandard

Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper95%

Lower99.0%

Upper99.0%

Intercept 0.0741522.85627

90.0259

610.9794

4 -5.73051 5.87881-

7.71897.8672

09

ΔΔAPC -0.997080.05371

7

-18.561

72.29E-

19 -1.10624-

0.88791

-1.1436

4

-0.8505

2

μs-1 -1.002120.17794

2

-5.6317

12.59E-

06 -1.36374-

0.64049

-1.4876

1

-0.5166

2Source: Author’s Composition

From Table 4.2, we realized that there exists a negative

relationship between predicted percentage of PDP winning margin

and predicted percentage of APC winning margin. It means that 1

per cent increase in predicted percentage of APC winning margin

would lead to 0.997 decreases in predicted percentage of PDP

winning margin. A difference of 0.003 per cent would be

34 | P a g e

experience but significant for predicted percentage of PDP

winning margin over predicted percentage of APC winning margin.

However, from the result stipulated in Table 4.2, ECM is negative

that is 1.00212 and significant at 95 per cent confidence

interval. It shows that about 100 per cent disequilibria in the

performance of predicted percentage of PDP winning margin in the

36 states including the FCT are corrected in the current

elections. The strong significance of the ECM is an indication

and confirmation of the existence of a long run equilibrium

relationship between predicted percentage of PDP winning margin

and predicted percentage of APC winning margin used in this

paper.

Chapter Five: Summary, Conclusion and Summary

5.1 Summary

The paper examines the overview of INEC PVC registration and

collection. It also evaluated the relationship between predicted

percentage of PDP winning margin and predicted percentage of APC

winning margin. The ordinary Least Squares regression and Error

Correction Model was used to estimate the variables. It was seen

that there exist a positive correlation between numbers of

registered voters and numbers of PVC collected across the thirty

six states of the Federation including the FCT. Also, predicted

percentage of PDP triumphant victory in the presidential/National

Assembly and Gubernatorial/State Assembly out weigh the predicted

35 | P a g e

percentage of APC winning margin. In addition, there exists a

negative relationship between predicted percentage of PDP winning

margin and predicted percentage of APC winning margin. Finally,

ECM is negative that is 1.00212 and significant at 95 per cent

confidence interval.

5.2 Conclusion

The different survey reports including that conducted by the

Pilot Newspaper still underscores the foregoing. According to

findings by Nigerian Pilot, apart from the incumbency factor and

visible achievements of the Goodluck Ebele Jonathan

administration since 2011, his sincerity and overall patriotic

nature among other positive features are going for him. Besides,

the spread and reach of his party are all working in his favour.

Unlike many other survey reports that premise their findings on

religion and ethic factors, there appears to be a form of

unanimity in the land that “for the future peace and progress of

the country, voting Goodluck Ebele Jonathanto complete his second

term as President given his record achievements vis-à-vis his

predecessors’ as well as the time-honoured rotation of the office

between the north and the south of the country, a second term for

Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is key for the peace and stability of

Nigeria’s economy. In conclusion, the issues this paper have

presented here and more could indeed constitute the template on

which the reform of the electoral process could be undertaken for

a better electoral system in the days ahead. However, it is

36 | P a g e

obvious from recent media reports that the very same forces that

are bent on frustrating our collective hope for a better Nigeria

are really not in support of any meaningful reforms of the

electoral system but are only interested in having a Commission

that will do their bidding.

5.3 Policy Recommendation

Sequel to the research findings, this paper would recommend these

policies:

Federal Government should deploy the military to polling

units to ensure security of lives and properties. The INEC

officers and political agents should be protected including

sensitive and non sensitive materials. The Nigeria Police

should also be engaged with other security outfits to help

mitigate touts and thugs activities at the various polling

centers.

There should be power to charge the various card readers to

ensure that accreditation of voters is done for proper

voting exercise. Attention should be in the rural areas and

urban slums/squatters. Generating sets can be provided to

these areas with low or no voltage to power the items.

All INEC Officers and Political agents should be in their

polling units by 7:30 am with all sensitive and non

sensitive material to ensure adequate voting exercise.

37 | P a g e

Canvassers of various political parties should ne 30 meters

away from the polling units to avoid violence and

manipulations.

Collation of results should not be done at the various Local

Government secretariats of various states but at secondary

schools close the wards.

It is pertinent that Nigerian is about to witness a remarkable

election in the history of the country and everyone is admonished

to take full delivery of this democratic package of exercising

our civil rights. We should mitigate violence and embrace the

spirit of brotherhood in these forthcoming elections. This paper

assures every Nigerians to vote for Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to

experience diverse transformations in our various sectors of the

economy.

References

The Guardian Newspaper Tuesday, March 24, 2015 Vol. 31, No.

13,234

Vidal Gore (2003): Inventing a Nation, Yale University Press, New

Haven & London

38 | P a g e

Ibid,p.137

Madubuike Ihechukwu (2007): Politics, Leadership and Development

in Nigeria, Roots Books and Journals, Abuja

OECD (2000) Government of the Future.  Paris.

Agbese, Dan (2000): Fellow Nigerians. Turning Points in the

political History of Nigeria, Umbrella Books

Chinoy, Ely (1967): Society Random House, New York

Hamisu, Adamu, (2009):“New Fixation with Iwu Bashing,” Daily

Trust (February 23)p.14

INEC (2007): The Official Report of the 2007 General Elections.

Abuja.p.4

Iwu, Maurice M(2007): Sustaining Democracy in Nigeria: Now that

the Jinx of Civilian to Civilian Transition is Broken, What

Next?, INEC, Abuja

INEC, Ibid. (2007)

INEC (2007): The Official Report on the 2007 General Elections,

Abuja

39 | P a g e

Appendix

S/No. States NRV NCV DUMMYWinner

1 Abia13961

6211831

27 1 PDP

2Adamawa

1559012

1381571 1 PDP

3Akwa-Ibom

1680759

1587566 1 PDP

4Anambra

1963173

1658967 1 PDP

5 Bauchi20541

2519670

81 0 APC

6Bayelsa

610373

548585 1 PDP

7 Benue20154

5216078

00 1 PDP

8 Borno19340

7914077

77 0 APC

9Cross River

1175623

983968 1 PDP

10 Delta22752

6419399

52 1 PDP

11 Ebonyi10742

7384839

2 1 PDP

12 Edo17797

3812305

66 1 PDP

13 Ekiti73202

152210

7 1 PDP

14 Enugu14292

2112236

06 1 PDP

15 FCT88147

256910

9 1 PDP

16 Gombe11200

2310707

25 0 APC

17 Imo18030

3017074

49 1 PDP

40 | P a g e

18 Jigawa18312

7617576

58 1 PDP

19 Kaduna34072

2231745

19 1 PDP

20 Kano49757

0141120

39 1 PDP

21Katsina

2827943

2620096 0 APC

22 Kebbi14706

4813726

30 0 APC

23 Kogi13508

8392601

3 1 PDP

24 Kwara11422

6788906

7 1 PDP

25 Lagos58222

0737992

74 1 PDP

26Nassarawa

1242667

1048053 0 APC

27 Niger20143

1716820

58 0 APC

28 Ogun18295

3411256

57 1 PDP

29 Ondo15246

5511184

79 1 PDP

30 Osun14071

0710332

29 0 APC

31 Oyo24155

6616399

67 1 PDP

32Plateau

2001825

1508585 1 PDP

33 Rivers25375

9021278

37 1 PDP

34 Sokoto16119

2915270

04 0 APC

35 Taraba13406

5212708

89 1 PDP

36 Yobe10999

7082440

1 0 APC

37Zamfara

1495717

1435452 0 APC

Source: Guardian Newspaper (2015)

41 | P a g e

Logarithmic Transformation

S/No. States NRV NCV DUMMYWinner

1 Abia14.149

2413.983

67 1 PDP

2 Adamawa14.259

5614.138

73 1 PDP

3Akwa-Ibom

14.33476

14.27771 1 PDP

4 Anambra14.490

0714.321

71 1 PDP

5 Bauchi14.535

3614.492

06 0 APC

6 Bayelsa13.321

8313.215

1 1 PDP

7 Benue14.516

3514.290

38 1 PDP

8 Borno14.475

1414.157

52 0 APC

9Cross River

13.97731

13.79935 1 PDP

10 Delta14.637

6114.478

17 1 PDP

11 Ebonyi13.887

1513.651

1 1 PDP

12 Edo14.391

9814.022

98 1 PDP

13 Ekiti13.503

5613.165

63 1 PDP

14 Enugu14.172

6414.017

31 1 PDP

15 FCT13.689

3513.251

83 1 PDP

16 Gombe13.928

8613.883

85 0 APC

17 Imo14.404

9814.350

51 1 PDP

18 Jigawa14.420

5214.379

49 1 PDP

42 | P a g e

19 Kaduna15.041

4114.970

67 1 PDP

20 Kano15.420

0815.229

43 1 PDP

21 Katsina14.855

0614.778

72 0 APC

22 Kebbi14.201

2114.132

24 0 APC

23 Kogi14.116

2713.738

64 1 PDP

24 Kwara13.948

5313.697

93 1 PDP

25 Lagos15.577

1915.150

32 1 PDP

26Nassarawa

14.03277

13.86244 0 APC

27 Niger14.515

7914.335

53 0 APC

28 Ogun14.419

5713.933

88 1 PDP

29 Ondo14.237

2813.927

48 1 PDP

30 Osun14.157

0513.848

2 0 APC

31 Oyo14.697

4414.310

19 1 PDP

32 Plateau14.509

5714.226

68 1 PDP

33 Rivers14.746

7314.570

62 1 PDP

34 Sokoto14.292

9414.238

82 0 APC

35 Taraba14.108

6714.055

23 1 PDP

36 Yobe13.910

7913.622

41 0 APC

37 Zamfara14.218

1214.176

99 0 APC

S/No. States PDPWinnin

g

APCWinnin

g

DUMMY Winner

43 | P a g e

Margin(%)

Margin(%)

1 Abia 98 2 1 PDP2 Adamawa 52 48 1 PDP

3Akwa-Ibom 98 2 1 PDP

4 Anambra 99 1 1 PDP5 Bauchi 46 54 0 APC6 Bayelsa 99 1 1 PDP7 Benue 81 19 1 PDP8 Bornu 48 52 0 APC

9Cross River 98 2 1 PDP

10 Delta 97 3 1 PDP11 Ebonyi 98 2 1 PDP12 Edo 65 35 1 PDP13 Ekiti 89 11 1 PDP14 Enugu 97 3 1 PDP15 FCT 68 32 1 PDP16 Gombe 48 52 0 APC17 Imo 92 8 1 PDP18 Jigawa 72 28 1 PDP19 Kaduna 60 40 1 PDP20 Kano 52 48 1 PDP21 Katsina 25 75 0 APC22 Kebbi 30 70 0 APC23 Kogi 75 25 1 PDP24 Kwara 55 45 1 PDP25 Lagos 55 45 1 PDP

26Nassarawa 35 65 0 APC

27 Niger 40 60 0 APC28 Ogun 60 40 1 PDP29 Ondo 88 12 1 PDP30 Osun 40 60 0 APC31 Oyo 65 35 1 PDP32 Plateau 94 6 1 PDP33 Rivers 88 12 1 PDP34 Sokoto 35 65 0 APC35 Taraba 81 19 1 PDP36 Yobe 20 80 0 APC

44 | P a g e

37 Zamfara 38 62 0 APCSource: Guardian Newspaper (2015)

S/No. States ΔPDP ΔAPC1 Abia 98 2

2Adamawa -46 46

3Akwa-Ibom 46 -46

4Anambra 1 -1

5 Bauchi -53 53

6Bayelsa 53 -53

7 Benue -18 188 Bornu -33 33

9Cross River 50 -50

10 Delta -1 111 Ebonyi 1 -112 Edo -33 3313 Ekiti 24 -2414 Enugu 8 -815 FCT -29 2916 Gombe -20 2017 Imo 44 -4418 Jigawa -20 2019 Kaduna -12 1220 Kano -8 8

21Katsina -27 27

22 Kebbi 5 -523 Kogi 45 -4524 Kwara -20 2025 Lagos 0 0

26Nassarawa -20 20

27 Niger 5 -528 Ogun 20 -2029 Ondo 28 -28

45 | P a g e

30 Osun -48 4831 Oyo 25 -25

32Plateau 29 -29

33 Rivers -6 634 Sokoto -53 5335 Taraba 46 -4636 Yobe -61 61

37Zamfara 18 -18

S/No. States ΔΔPDP ΔΔAPC μs-11 Abia 98 2 0

2Adamawa -144 44 97.29

701

3Akwa-Ibom

92 -92-

2.74183

4Anambra

-45 45-

2.66062

5 Bauchi-54 54

-2.700

34

6Bayelsa 106 -106 -

2.748

7 Benue-71 71

-2.654

44

8 Bornu-15 15

-2.717

11

9Cross River

83 -83-

2.73035

10 Delta-51 51

-2.657

09

11 Ebonyi2 -2

-2.702

11

46 | P a g e

12 Edo-34 34

-2.700

34

13 Ekiti57 -57

-2.730

35

14 Enugu-16 16

-2.680

04

15 FCT-37 37

-2.694

16

16 Gombe9 -9

-2.726

82

17 Imo64 -64

-2.718

88

18 Jigawa-64 64

-2.662

39

19 Kaduna8 -8

-2.718

88

20 Kano4 -4

-2.711

82

21Katsina

-19 19-

2.70828

22 Kebbi32 -32

-2.725

06

23 Kogi40 -40

-2.696

81

24 Kwara-65 65

-2.661

5

25 Lagos20 -20

-2.718

88

47 | P a g e

26Nassarawa

-20 20-

2.70122

27 Niger25 -25

-2.718

88

28 Ogun15 -15

-2.696

81

29 Ondo8 -8

-2.683

57

30 Osun-76 76

-2.676

51

31 Oyo73 -73

-2.743

59

32Plateau

4 -4-

2.67916

33 Rivers-35 35

-2.675

63

34 Sokoto-47 47

-2.706

52

35 Taraba 99 -99 -2.748

36 Yobe-107 107

-2.660

62

37Zamfara

79 -79-

2.75507

48 | P a g e

49 | P a g e