UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI

AN EVALUATION OF EFFECTS OF POPULATION GROWTH ON

KENYAN ECONOMY 

CHARLES WANJARE

NOVEMBER, 2014

i

DECLARATIONI hereby declare that this is my original work and to the best of

my understanding, has not been presented for an award of a degree

in any other university.

Charles Wanjare ……………………………

………………….

Name signature

date

ii

ABSTRACT

Researchers have not been clear on the effects of population

growth on economy and have remained torn between three theories:

one that it improves economic growth, the other that it lowers

and that which shows neutrality of population growth on the

economy. Assumptions have been made based on studies carried

outside Kenya, which may not have clear bearing on the Kenyan

situation. The dynamics in modern economy of the world has

heightened the need for studies in population to ensure

sustainable economic growth. This research seeks to identify the

various population growth factors affecting Kenyan economy in

order to evaluate the effects of the factors on the economy. It

aims to propose a model of the effects of population growth on

the economy and to recommend measures that can be taken on

population growth to ensure economic growth. The research will

combine two approaches: 1) Vector Auto Regression estimation

based on Solow swan model to analyze annual time series data

between 1970 and 2014 and 2) survey approach through expert

iii

respondent interview to evaluate actual empirical effects

realized in Kenya and to verify model findings. The results are

expected to show the nature of correlation between population

growth and per capita GDP.

Keywords: Population, GDP, economy

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ASFR : Age Specific Fertility Rate

GDP :

Gross Domestic Product

iv

GDPt : Time variant Gross Domestic Product

POPt : Population with respect to

time

v

DEFINITION OF OPERATIONAL TERMS Birth rate:- Number of live births per thousand of population per

year.

Death rate:- Number of deaths per thousand of population per year

Dependency ratio:- A measure showing the number of dependents

(aged 0-14 and over the age of 65) to the total population

(aged 15-64).

Fertility rate:- The average number of children that would be

born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to experience

the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFR)

through her lifetime, and if she were to survive from birth

through the end of her reproductive life.

Per Capita GDP: - A measure of the total output of a country that

takes the gross domestic product (GDP) and divides it by the

number of people in the country. 

Population growth:- An increase in the number of people that

reside in a country, state, county, or city. 

Population growth:- The exponential rate of growth of midyear

population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a

percentage.

vi

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Annual percentage population growth and per capita GDP

in Kenya since 1970...........................................16

Table 2: Sample of expert respondents.........................21

vii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 : Graphs of per capita GDP and population growth in Kenya. .17

viii

Table of ContentsDECLARATION...................................................ii

ABSTRACT.....................................................iii

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS............................iv

DEFINITION OF OPERATIONAL TERMS................................v

LIST OF TABLES................................................vi

LIST OF FIGURES..............................................vii

CHAPTER ONE...................................................10

INTRODUCTION..................................................10

1.0. Background to the Study.................................10

ix

1.1. Statement of the Problem................................10

1.2. Purpose of the Study....................................11

1.3. Research Objectives.....................................11

1.4. Research Questions......................................11

1.5. Significance of the Study...............................11

1.6. Justification of the Study..............................11

1.7. Scope of the study......................................12

1.9 Limitation of the Study................................12

CHAPTER TWO...................................................13

2.0: LITERATURE REVIEW........................................13

2.1. Introduction............................................13

2.2. Review of Related Literature............................13

2.3. Critique of Literature..................................14

2.4. Population Growth in Kenya..............................16

2.5. Theoretical Framework...................................18

CHAPTER THREE.................................................21

3.0. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY......................................21

3.1. Introduction............................................21

3.1. Research Design.........................................21

3.2. Variables/Categories of Analysis........................21

3.3. Site of the Study.......................................21

3.4. Study Population........................................21

3.5. Sampling Technique and Sample Size......................21

x

3.6. Research Instruments....................................22

3.8. Validity and Reliability................................22

3.9. Data Collection.........................................23

3.10. Data Analysis..........................................23

3.11. Data Management and Ethical Considerations.............23

REFERENCES....................................................24

APPENDICES....................................................27

A1-TENTATIVE CHAPTERIZATION..................................27

A2 – STUDY TIME-LINE.........................................28

A3 – BUDGET FOR THE STUDY....................................29

A4 – RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS....................................30

xi

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.0. Background to the Study

Economists argue that interactions between population dynamics

and economy can lead to poverty trap (Bloom & Canning, 2001).

Other researchers like Dyson (2010) claim that decline in

mortality boosts the economy and living standards. Kalemli-

Ozcan (2002) argue that population growth leads to

innovations, education enhancement and greater focus on the

future. These innovations, better healthcare and technology

lead to higher productivity from healthy and vibrant workforce

(Strauss & Thomas, 1998).

Demographic factors affecting the economy have been

identified by Dyson (2010) as population growth, fertility and

age-structural change and urbanization. This research

empirically examines the impacts of the various dimensions of

the Kenyan population growth on per capita GDP growth.

Statistical results will help policymakers to make policies

aimed at influencing the effects of the population growth on

the economy.

1.1. Statement of the Problem

It is important to know how population growth affects the

Kenyan economy. There are three theories that attempt to

explain how population growth affects the economy: theory that

12

population growth has negative effects; the other that it has

positive effects and that which postulates that population

growth is neutral regarding economic growth. The problem is

that economists are not clear on which theory best explains

how population growth affects the economy. Assumptions have

been made based on studies carried outside the country, which

may not have clear bearing on the Kenyan situation. Kenyan

population is assumed to be in pre Malthusian equilibrium

though the problem is that studies have not been conducted to

determine whether Malthusian conclusions apply.

There is lack of effect evaluation criteria in relation

to population growth and economic indicators which leads to

poor knowledge of the impacts or assumptions that the

population growth negatively affects the economy resulting to

misleading measures and policies. Another problem is that

documented effects do not directly relate population growth

and the economy. This makes it difficult to single out

population growth related effects on the Kenyan economy thus

necessitating a study in this area.

1.2. Purpose of the StudyThe purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of

population growth on Kenyan economy. It will also come up with

population growth factors that affect the economy and evaluate

their effects.

1.3. Research Objectives The study will be guided by the following objectives:

13

i. To identify the various population growth factors

affecting Kenyan economy;

ii. To evaluate the effects of population growth factors on

the Kenyan economy;

iii. To propose a model of the effects of population growth

on economy; and

iv. To recommend measures that can be taken on population

growth to ensure economic growth

1.4. Research QuestionsThe study will try to respond to the following questions:

i. Which population growth factors affect Kenyan economy?

ii. What are the effects of population growth on the

Kenyan economy?

iii. What is the appropriate model of the effects of

population growth on Kenyan economy? and

iv. What measures can be taken on population growth to

ensure economic growth?

1.5. Significance of the Study

The study will help the government to develop more effective

policies concerning population interactions with the economy.

It will enable the academician and intellectuals to conduct

further research on population and the efforts to grow the

economy.

1.6. Justification of the Study

The study will seek to evaluate the effects of population

growth on Kenyan economy. Kenya is an appropriate study area

14

since she experienced unstable economic growth and a major

rise in population over the last twenty years. The dynamics in

modern economy of the world has heightened the need for

studies in ways of controlling population to ensure

sustainable growth.

It has been realized that adopting measures to control

and empower population are good attempts towards addressing

economic stance of developing countries like Kenya. The core

factors of sustainable economy are usually insoluble by

conventional, traditional approaches that focus in safety in

large numbers of people and compromises quality of the

populace.

Demographic measures based on proper impact analysis and

sound economic system are necessity for better economic

results. This research focuses on impact analysis and is one

attempt towards realizing feasible population control efforts

that can effectively achieve higher economic development.

1.7. Scope of the studyThis research will be concerned with the evaluation of the

effects of population growth on Kenyan economy. It will cover

the period between 1970 and 2014.

1.9 Limitation of the Study

This research will exclude the other dimensions of population

which include population density and size structure, and also

population aging. Further research on the effect of the other

dimensions of population on economic development is necessary

to shed light on their contribution.

15

CHAPTER TWO

2.0: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1. Introduction

The literature review will contain the review of related

literature, critique of literature and conceptual/theoretical

framework.

2.2.Review of Related Literature

Researchers argue that population growth in developing

countries has had little effects on economic growth (Kuznets,

1967; Kelly, 1988; Kelly & McGreevey, 1994). Simon (1989)

suggests that population growth may in the long run lead to

economic growth through contribution of new ideas and learning

as a result of increased production volume.

16

Over the recent years, data show that rapid population

growth in developing countries like Kenya has resulted into

significant negative effect on economic growth (Birdsall &

Sinding, 2001; Barro & Sala-i-Martin, 2004; Heady & Hodge,

2001; Sachs, 2008). Fertility decline in various parts of the

world like Latin America and Asia has led to reduced

dependency ratio and raised economic growth through higher

saving, physical and human capital (Mason, 1997; Bloom &

Canning, 2001; Higgins & Williamson, 1997). This however may

have long term negative effects on economy due to population

ageing as experienced in Japan and Europe (Bloom, et al,

2009).

Though urban growth as an element of population growth

and migration results into mashrooming slums, pollution and

congestion, it represents engines of economic growth due to

concentrated markets, low transport costs and readily

available industrial labour (Crook, 1997; Jacobs, 1972; Beall

& Fox, 2009). Friedberg & Hunt (1997) concur that population

growth and urbanization are correlated and that they

contribute to economic development. In their analysis of

international data for a period of 32 years from 1975, Fox and

Dyson (2008) found out that urban growth is positively

correlated with growth in per capita GDP. Coale and Hoover

(1958) observe that low labor costs lead to advancement

through technology since the excess money is invested in

acquiring new technology.

Minh (2012) found out that the relationship between

population growth and per capita GDP in developing countries17

is linear and everywhere negative. He found out that

relationship between the young dependency ratio and population

growth has a positive effect on economic growth. Gerald and

Meier (1995) argue that a zero population growth is

unnecessary for increased consumption; there may be a drop in

per capita GDP even with zero population growth.

2.3.Critique of LiteratureMalthus (1798) found that population growth is geometric while

economic growth indicated by production capacity is an

arithmetic progression. He postulated that preventive and

positive checks on population can occur to ensure that

pressure exerted on resources is eased. Whereas preventive

check means voluntary limitation of population, positive check

is the natural attrition, diseases, wars etc. balance

population with resources.

Contrary to Malthusian school of thought, Boserup (1965)

discovered that population growth is autonomous and affects

productivity. He argued that in the long run, higher

population may result in more efficient specialization as well

as improved agricultural practices as opposed to Malthusian

assumption of diminishing returns to labour.

In his study focusing on developing economies, Thirlwal

(1973) found out that there is a complex relationship between

population growth and economic development. He argued that

rapid population growth lowers per capita income growth in

developing nations and that population growth may be a

stimulus to economic development since there are rational

18

reasons why families in developing countries choose to have

many children.

Simon (1977) employed a simulation model to investigate

the long term (30 – 100 years) effects of population growth on

economy and found out that despite its negative effects on

living standards as a result of diminishing returns and burden

on the society, it positively affects living standards due to

advances in technology and knowledge in economies of scale.

Thuku, Gachanja & Obere (2013) argue that “a country's optimal

policy regarding population growth depends on the weight given

to future periods relative to the present” (p. 48).

Porter (1996) described a model that shows that an

increase in the rate of population growth in steady state does

not affect the growth rate of the per capita variables, but an

increase in fertility leads to a decrease in the level of

capital per capita. Becker (1991) developed models of

intergenerational transfers based on increasing own

consumption and the utility of the offspring. It postulates

that there is inter-linking chain the current generation

consumes and transfers resources to its children influenced by

its concern for children and for future generations implying

that familial transfers neutralizes fiscal policy.

Bloom and Freeman (1986) developed a framework for

analyzing effects of population growth based on accounting and

behavioral mechanisms. Whereas accounting aspect refers to

changes in the population structure and cohort size,

behavioral aspect that refers to the decision to participate

19

in the labor force. Kelly (1988) found out that low population

growth rate is associated with high economic growth. He

observed that countries with lower than 2% population growth

rate could increase per capita income to 2.5% while those with

population growth rate above 2% could hardly attain 2%

economic growth.

Mankiw, et al (1992) used stochastic frontier production

function to investigate the effects of population growth on

steady-state per capita income and found out that a 10%

increase in population growth rate could lead to 5% reduction

in per capita income in steady-state. When considering human

capital investment, they found out that 1% increase in

population growth rate would reduce per capita income by 2%.

Bloom and Williamson (1997) discovered that economic

performance is driven by age distribution effects but not

overall population growth rate. Age distribution operates

through difference in growth rates between working population

and dependent population (Thuku, Gachanja & Obere, 2013).

Bucci (2003) found out that population growth exerts a

negative long run effect on economic growth. If the population

decides to save, population growth can have neutral effect on

economic growth. Where physical and human capital can interact

with each other in the production of new human capital like in

the education sector, the effect of population growth on per-

capita income growth is always negative. Again, in case human

and physical capital is complementary for each other, the

20

effect of population change on actual per-capita income growth

becomes ambiguous (Thuku, Gachanja & Obere, 2013).

2.4.Population Growth in KenyaTable1 and Figure 1 show population growth and per capita GDP

since 1970. Population growth steadily increased from 3.48% in

1970 at to 3.82% in 1982 it then started declining steadily to

2.57% in 2000. Between 2000 and 2010 the population growth

rate oscillated between figures ranging from 2.57% to 2.63%.

From 2011 to 2014 the population growth rate has remained

2.70% except for 2013 when it dropped to 2.69%.

Per capita GDP was lowest in 1971 at USD 359.57. It rose

to from 1971 to USD 490.72 in 1975 followed by a drop USD

469.63 in 1977. Between 1978 and 1982 it increased steadily to

USD 537.27 then dropped steadily to USD 503.51 in 1986 and

again increased steady from 1987 to 1991 peaking at USD

555.33. From 1991 the per capita GDP dropped steadily to USD

506.65 in 1995, the increased to USD 520.59 in 1997 followed

by a general drop to USD 496.49 in 2004. From 2004 to 2014,

there was a general increase to the highest rate of USD 606.21

in 2014.

21

Table 1: Annual percentage population growth and per capita

GDP in Kenya since 1970

Year Annual

percentage

growth

Per capita

GDP (USD)

Year Annual

percenta

ge

growth

Per

capita

GDP

(USD)1970 3.48 390.48 1993 3.22 523.311971 3.54 359.57 1994 3.11 508.861972 3.59 424.04 1995 2.97 506.651973 3.63 478.98 1996 2.84 513.861974 3.66 489.14 1997 2.72 520.591975 3.69 490.72 1998 2.65 509.371976 3.71 477.10 1999 2.61 512.691977 3.73 469.63 2000 2.57 511.15

22

1978 3.75 495.23 2001 2.60 500.961979 3.77 510.00 2002 2.62 506.281980 3.80 528.52 2003 2.63 495.571981 3.82 537.27 2004 2.62 496.491982 3.82 536.65 2005 2.60 507.911983 3.80 524.30 2006 2.57 523.611984 3.77 511.32 2007 2.55 542.041985 3.71 501.04 2008 2.56 564.671986 3.65 503.51 2009 2.58 558.191987 3.58 520.27 2010 2.63 558.321988 3.52 531.27 2011 2.70 575.061989 3.46 545.13 2012 2.70 584.041990 3.41 551.32 2013 2.69 594.831991 3.36 555.33 2014 2.70 606.211992 3.31 544.94

(Source: World Bank)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

f(x) = 0.024127628458498 x − 42.9088736671058R² = 0.480808888731442

f(x) = − 0.0340316205533597 x + 70.9687659200703R² = 0.803773220672244

Annual percentage growthLinear (Annual percentage growth)

Year

23

Figure 1 : Graphs of per capita GDP and population growth in

Kenya

2.5.Theoretical FrameworkThis research will adopt Solow swan model of growth to explain

the effects of population growth on the economy. Rate of

saving, population growth and technical advancement are taken

as exogenous. Marginal products are paid to two inputs namely

capital and labour.

This research assumes Cobb Douglas production function

which gives time-variant function as:

Y (t )=K (t)αA (t)L(t)1−α (1)

0<α<1

Where:-

Y (t )= Time variant output;

K (t)= Capital;

A (t)= Level of technology; and

L(t)= Labour.

Rate of growth of labour and technology are given as

follows:

L (t )=mL(t) (2)

A (t)=nA (t) (3)

24

Where:-

L (t )=dLdt, derivative of labour function with respect to

time;

A (t)=dAdt, derivative of level of technology with respect to

time;

m and n are exogenous parameters.

The rates of change of logs of L and A are constant and

equal to m and n as shown:

lnL (t )=lnL (0)+nt (4)

lnA (t )=lnA (0)+mt (5)

Resulting into:

L (t )=L(0)ent (6)

A (t)=A(0)emt (7)

Therefore:

A (t)L (t )=A(0)L(0)e(m+n)t (8)

Where:

L(0)= Labour at t=0; and

A (0)= Level of technology at t=0.

Equation 8 shows that effective unit of labour grows at

rate of m+n.

25

The model assumes that constant fraction s is invested.

Stock of capital per effective unit of labour is defined here

as p=K/AL and q as level of output per effective unit of

labour as q=Y/AL, we have,

p (t )=sq(t)−(m+n+δ)p (t)=spα (t )−(m+n+δ )p(t) (9)

Where:

δ= rate of depreciation.

Equation 9 implies that p converges to steady state p definedby:

p=[s

m+n+δ ]1

1−α (10)

The steady state capital labor ratio is positively related to

the rate of saving and negatively related to population growth

rate. Main prediction of the model relates to effects of

saving and population growth on income.

Substituting Equation 10 into Equation 1 we have:

Y(t)L(t)

=A (0 ) [ sm+n+δ ]

α1−α∗ent (11)

Taking logs we have:

ln(Y (t )L (t) )=lnA (0)+ α

1−αlns−

α1−α

ln (m+n+δ )+nt (12)

The model predicts the magnitudes of the coefficients on

saving and population growth. Equation 12 therefore relates26

economic growth rate (GDP) to population growth as in Equation

13.

GDPt=f(POPt) (13)

CHAPTER THREE

3.0. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1.Introduction

Materials and methods that will be used in the research are

presented in this section. It covers research design,

population, sample and sampling techniques data collection

method and analysis methodology.

3.1.Research Design

This research will use Solow swan model for analysis of

population and economic growth factors. It will also use

27

survey design to examine how exactly population growth affects

economic growth. This will help to verify findings based on

the model and confirm with empirical findings.

3.2.Variables/Categories of Analysis

Research variables in this study are categorized into two:

independent and dependent variables. Independent variables are

population growth indicators while dependent variables are

effects of the population growth on per capita GDP.

3.3.Site of the Study

The location of the study will be Kenya.

3.4.Study Population

The targeted population in the study is the Kenyan populace.

Target population is estimated as 40 million.

3.5. Sampling Technique and Sample Size

The study will adopt multistage stratified non-random sampling

method to select elements. Experts in population and economics

will be drawn from the government especially Ministry of

Devolution and from higher learning institutions in Kenya. A

sample size of 180 expert respondents will participate in this

research.

Table 2: Sample of expert respondents

Respondent Category Target

Population

Sample

Size

Percentage

Sample SizeSenior management experts 33 10 30.30

28

Middle level management

experts officers

135 40 29.63

Experts from academic

institutions

200 120 60

Civil society experts 35 10 28.57

Total - 180 -

3.6. Research Instruments

The researcher will collect data by administering

questionnaires and in some cases face-to-face interviews will

be done. The questionnaires will use both open ended and

closed ended questions. Other data sources will include group

discussions, submission by government officials, civil society

and academic experts.

3.8. Validity and Reliability

Reliability in qualitative research calls for consistency,

accuracy and predictability of the research; while validity

is the quality of the research. Validity measures the

extent to which measuring technique or process is free from

error or whether the research measures what it is intended

to measure (Golafshani, 2003)

Respondent inclinations may introduce a bias by

showing that all is going well with the economy and

population growth even if the picture other than what the

interviewee says is evident. Also, some officials may think

that the survey could be linked to some fault finding

investigation or research into the population growth and

effects on the economy and thus be resistive. As a way of

29

increasing research quality, substantial review of

literature in this will be conducted to give greater

substance and understanding of the subject matter.

3.9.Data Collection

This study will focus on the effects of population growth on

per capita GDP, thus primary data is

important. However, secondary data will be collected

to augment the study and analysis using Solow swan model.

Prior to the actual data collection by the researcher,

introductory letter will be sent to the sampled respondents

and respondent institutions to seek permission to conduct

research. Each respondent will be required to

familiarize himself/herself with the research questionnaire

and will be required to consent and commit himself/herself to

the requirements of the questionnaire.

3.10. Data Analysis

Sorting of data and information will be done during data

analysis. Examination of existing secondary data will be

carried out and information gathered was used to evaluate

the effects of population growth in areas of interest in

economic growth highlighted in the objectives of this

research.

Stationarity test will be conducted using Augmented

Dickey Fuller (ADF) test to determine whether research

variables in the Solow swan model are stationary or non-

stationary. A further test of strength of exogeneity of

model variables will be conducted using partitioned joint

30

probability density function. Finally, a Vector Auto-

Regression (VAR) analysis will be used to examine the

relationship among economic variables and analyze the

effects of disturbances on the system of variables in the

research (Stock & Watson, 2001).

3.11. Data Management and Ethical Considerations

The researcher will apply ethical guidelines of Social

Research Association (2003) to ensure ethical issues in this

research are considered. He will seek letter of authority to

conduct research from the University and consent from

participants through request letters attached to

questionnaire. The researcher will ensure that information and

data collected will be used only for purpose of achieving

research objectives. Sensitive information like confidential

and restricted documents and information will be treated as

their classification requires. Special arrangements will be

made by use of proxies to obtain their consent and to conduct

data collection as per their needs. The researcher will ensure

minimal paper use as an attempt to be conscious to the

environmental conservation.

REFERENCES

Barro, R.J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004) Economic Growth,

Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

31

Beall, J. and Fox, S. (2009) Cities and Development, London:

Routledge.

Becker, G., 1991. A Treatise on the family, enlarged edition

Cambridge, Mass. and London: Harvard University Press.

Birdsall, N. and Sinding, S. (2001), “How and why population

matters: new findings, new issues”, in N. Birdsall, A.C.

Kelley and S. Sinding (eds), Population Matters: Demographic

Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World, Oxford:

Oxford University Press.

Bloom, D. and Canning, D. (2001), “Cumulative causality,

economic growth, and the demographic transition”, in N.

Birdsall, A.C. Kelley and S. Sinding (eds), Population

Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the

Developing World, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Bloom, D., Canning, D., Fink, G. and Finlay, J. E. (2009).

“The cost of low fertility in Europe”, NBER Working Paper no.

14828, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic

Research.

Bloom, D. E., and Freeman, R. (1986). The effects of rapid

population growth on labor supply and employment in

developing countries. Population and Development Review, pp.

381–414.

Bloom, D. E. and Williamson, G. (1997). Demographic

transitions and economic miracles in Emerging Asia. World

Bank Economic Review Vol.12, No. 3, pp. 419 – 55.

32

Boserup, E. (1965). The conditions of agricultural Growth: The

Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure.

London.

Bucci, A. (2003). Population growth in a model of economic

growth with human capital accumulation and horizontal

R&D. University of Milan: Milan.

Coale, A. J., and Hoover E., M. (1958). Population Growth and

Economic Development in Low- Income Countries .Princeton:

Princeton University Press.

Crook, N. (1997). Principles of Population and Development, Oxford:

Oxford University Press.

Dyson, T. (2010). Population and Development: The Demographic Transition,

New York, NY: Zed Books.

Fox, S. and Dyson, T. (2008). “On the relationship between

population growth and economic growth: historical and

sect oral considerations”, Unpublished paper, London

School of Economics.

Friedberg, R.and J. Hunt (1995). The Impact of Immigrants on

Host Country Wages, Employment and Growth (in Symposia:

Immigration). The Journal of Economic Perspectives No. 2, pp. 23 –

44.

Gerald, M. and Meier, M., G. (1995). Leading Issues in

Economic Development. New York: Oxford University Press,

1995, pp. 276.

33

Golafshani, N., “Understanding Reliability and Validity in

Qualitative Research,” The Qualitative Report, Vol.8,

No.4, 2003, pp. 579 – 607.

Headey, D. D. and Hodge, A. (2009). The effect of population

growth on economic growth: a meta-regression analysis of

the macroeconomic literature. Population and Development

Review, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 221 – 248.

Higgins, M. and Williamson, J. G. (1997). Age structure

dynamics n Asia and dependence of foreign capital.

Population and Development Review, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 261 –

293.

Jacobs, J. (1972). The Economy of Cities, Harmondsworth: Penguin

Books.

Kalemli-Ozcan, S. (2002). Does mortality decline promote

economic growth? Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 7, No. 4,

pp. 411 – 439.

Kelley, A. C. (1998). Economic consequences of population

change in the Third World. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol.

26, No. 4, pp. 1685 – 728.

Kelley, A. C. and McGreevey, W. P. (1994). Population and

development in historical perspective, in R. H. Cassen

(ed.), Population and Development: Old Debates, New Conclusions, New

Brunswick, NJ and Oxford: Transaction Publishers.

Kuznets, S. (1967). Population and economic growth. Proceedings

of the American Philosophical Society, Vol. 111, No. 3, pp. 170 –

93.

34

Malthus, T.R. (1798). An essay on the principles of

population. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Mankiw, G. Roemer, D. and Weil, P. (1992) A contribution to

the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Mason, A. (1997). Population and the Asian economic miracle.

Asia-Pacific Population and Policy, 43, East-West Center,

Honolulu, HI.

Minh, Q-D (2012). Population and economic growth in developing

countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and

Social Sciences, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 6 – 17.

Porter, M., (1996). Competitive advantage, agglomeration

economies, and regional policy. International Regional Science

Review, Vol. 19.

Sachs, J. (2008). Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet,

London: Penguin Press.

Simon, J. L. (1992). Population and Developing Countries. Princeton

University Press: Princeton, New. Jersey

Strauss, J., and Thomas, D. (1998). Health, nutrition and

economic development. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 36,

No. 2, pp. 766 – 817.

Stock, J.H., and Watson, M.W. (2001). Vector Auto Regressions.

Journal of Economic Perspectives No. 15, pp. 101 – 115.

Thirlwal, A. P. (1973). Growth and development with special

reference to developing economies. University of Kent at

Canterbury, 5th Edition. pp. 143 – 155.

35

Thuku, G. K., Gachanja, P. and Obere, A. (2013). Impacts of

population change on economic growth in Kenya. International

Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, Vol. 2, No. 6, pp. 43

– 60.

APPENDICES

A1-TENTATIVE CHAPTERIZATION

Chapter One

Introduction: Gives background of the researchtopic, outlines problem statement, studyobjectives, research questions and hypotheses,justification, significance, scope andlimitations

Chapter Two Literature Review and Theoretical/ConceptualFramework.

Chapter Three

Research Methodology: Includes research design,variables/categories of analysis, site of thestudy, study population, sampling techniques andsample size, research instruments, pilot study(where applicable), validity and reliability,data collection, data analysis, data managementand ethical considerations

Chapter Four Background of Kenyan Population GrowthChapter Five Population Growth and Kenyan EconomyChapter Six Data, Analysis and FindingsChapter Seven

Discussion of Findings

Chapter Eight

Recommendations and Conclusions

36

A2 – STUDY TIME-LINE

Research Work Time Line

Review of relevant literature ,Writing research proposal

November, 2014

Defense of the proposal February, 2015

Preparation of research questionnaire

March – August, 2015

Administration of research questionnaires

September - December, 2015

Data processing and analysis January - August, 2016

Writing research report September, 2016 – June, 2017

37

Printing of project for defense August, 2017

PRESENTING THE REPORT TO THE DEPARTMENT

January, 2018

A3 – BUDGET FOR THE STUDY

The researcher intends to incur the following expenses during

the study

Activity Cost (USD)

Transport expenses 2,100

Stationery 1,300

Printing 125

38

Typing 850

Binding 1,050

Miscellaneous 1,000

Printing papers A4 size 800

Transport expenses 2,100

Transport expenses 2,100

Hiring Research

Assistants

2,000

Defence of the Proposal

and Binding of the

Project

1,200

TOTAL 14,625

A4 – RESEARCH INSTRUMENTSI. Biodata

Name (Optional) …………………………………………………………………..

39

Age ……………… Gender (Tick √ one) Male Female

Work Organization …………………………………………………………………

Area of expertise ……………………………………………………………………

Experience (in years) in population and economy

………………………………..

II. Questionnaire Questions

1. In your own opinion, what population growth factors

affect Kenyan per capita GDP?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………………………

2. Briefly explain how the factors you have listed in 1

above affect Kenyan per capita GDP.

Population growth

factor

Effects on per capita GDP

1.2.3.4.5.

3. In your opinion, to what extent do you agree that the

following population growth factors affect per capita

GDP? Use rating scale: 1= strongly disagree, 2= disagree,

3= agree, 4= strongly agree, 5= very strongly agree.

Population growth factor Your rating1.Low birth rate

40

2.High birth rate3.Low death rate4.Population ages (0-14 years)5.Population ages (15-60 years)6.Population ages (60 and above)7.Low age dependency ratio8.High age dependency ratio

4. In your own opinion, to what extent do you agree that the

following economic factors relate to population growth?

Use rating scale: 1= strongly disagree, 2= disagree, 3=

agree, 4= strongly agree, 5= very strongly agree.

Economic factor Your rating1.Capital2.Labour3.Level of technology

5. Do you think government policies on population and

economic growths are relevant for higher per capita GDP?

Give reasons.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

6. What measures do you recommend to be taken on population

growth to ensure economic growth?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

41

THANK YOU

42