Accelerating a Green-Technology Transition:

A Leading Role for the BA

A presentation by Gordon Thompson IRSS & Clark University

<gthompson@irss-usa.org>

Bibliotecha Alexandrina 27 April 2011

Imperatives of a Green-Technology Transition:

Some Examples

Worldwide CO2 Emissions Source: Michael Raupach et al, PNAS, 12 June 2007  

Egypt Joins 350.org

Committed Global Warming from GHG Emissions 1750-2005

Source: Ramanathan & Feng, PNAS, 23 September 2008  

Potential GHG Emission Pathways for “North” & “South”

Source: Paul Baer et al, Greenhouse Development Rights Framework, Nov. 2008  

Scarcity of Fresh Water as a Global Issue

 “The global water forecast for the next two decades, if no reform actions are taken, is chilling; water scarcity will have a profound effect on global and regional systems, whether from an economic growth, human security, environmental or geopolitical stability perspective.”

(World Economic Forum Water Initiative, 2009)

IEA Reference Scenario for World Oil Production

Source: Intl. Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008  

Opportunities of a Green-Technology Transition:

Some Examples

The Desertec Concept

Seawater-Based Biofuel in Egypt

Wind Farm, Gray County, Kansas  

Offshore Wind Potential

Traffic Options in New York City

The White House Garden

Energy Use and Waste

Traditional Architecture, Siwa Oasis Photo credit: Mariah Thompson, 2011

Passive House in Egypt

Performance of a Passivehaus Source: Passivehaus Institut

Meadi Solar Power Project, 1913

A Thought from Frank Shuman

 “One thing I feel sure of and that is that the human race must finally utilize direct sun power or revert to barbarism. [Because of the depletion of coal and oil.] I would recommend all far-sighted engineers and inventors to work in this direction to their own profit, and the eternal welfare of the human race.”

Frank Shuman, Scientific American, 1914.

Knowledge Architecture for a Green-Technology Transition

A Green-Technology Transition: Challenges and Solutions

Challenges •  Scientific and technical •  Political and cultural

Societal Solutions •  A widely shared understanding of the imperatives

and opportunities of the transition •  A strategic consensus that leads to coherent,

positive action

A Framework for Green-Technology Knowledge

Socio-Cultural Components •  A common narrative for informed dialogue on

imperatives and opportunities •  Forums that facilitate dialogue

Technical components •  Electronic tools and archives that support

dialogue and development of consensus on actionable plans

A Common Narrative

Key questions •  Where are we going? (Trends) •  Would other futures be better? (Options) •  How could we reach such futures? (Scenarios)

Supporting tools •  Layered, accessible archives (To understand

what’s happening) •  Interactive, layered simulations (To explore

futures that we could create)

Video Games: A Route to Large-Scale Learning?

Source: Merrilea Mayo, Science, 2 Jan. 2009  

Potential Project #1: Renewable Electricity & Smart Grid

At each project node (e.g., BA) •  Acquire real-time performance data from renewable

electricity sources (wind, solar, etc.) •  Acquire real-time performance data from electricity

load-management devices •  Create layered software tools to simulate smart grids •  Engage diverse stakeholders in smart-grid

simulations, including 100% renewable Across project nodes (e.g., BA, Boston……) •  Stakeholders worldwide share their experience

Potential Project #2: Water Modeling in the Nile Basin

Develop layered tools to simulate water management strategies and options, Basin-wide

•  Build on the Nile Forecasting System: “The simulation ability developed would allow assessing the consequences for Egypt of planned or actual water abstractions and of works across the river in the upstream countries, in order to plan appropriate adjustment measures.”

Promote a common narrative, Basin-wide •  Engage diverse stakeholders in assessing water

management strategies and their implications •  Create forums for collaboration

Nile Forecasting System

Sustainability as Common Ground (Isfahan, April 2008)