Accelerating a Green-Technology Transition:
A Leading Role for the BA
A presentation by Gordon Thompson IRSS & Clark University
Bibliotecha Alexandrina 27 April 2011
Committed Global Warming from GHG Emissions 1750-2005
Source: Ramanathan & Feng, PNAS, 23 September 2008
Potential GHG Emission Pathways for “North” & “South”
Source: Paul Baer et al, Greenhouse Development Rights Framework, Nov. 2008
Scarcity of Fresh Water as a Global Issue
“The global water forecast for the next two decades, if no reform actions are taken, is chilling; water scarcity will have a profound effect on global and regional systems, whether from an economic growth, human security, environmental or geopolitical stability perspective.”
(World Economic Forum Water Initiative, 2009)
IEA Reference Scenario for World Oil Production
Source: Intl. Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008
A Thought from Frank Shuman
“One thing I feel sure of and that is that the human race must finally utilize direct sun power or revert to barbarism. [Because of the depletion of coal and oil.] I would recommend all far-sighted engineers and inventors to work in this direction to their own profit, and the eternal welfare of the human race.”
Frank Shuman, Scientific American, 1914.
A Green-Technology Transition: Challenges and Solutions
Challenges • Scientific and technical • Political and cultural
Societal Solutions • A widely shared understanding of the imperatives
and opportunities of the transition • A strategic consensus that leads to coherent,
positive action
A Framework for Green-Technology Knowledge
Socio-Cultural Components • A common narrative for informed dialogue on
imperatives and opportunities • Forums that facilitate dialogue
Technical components • Electronic tools and archives that support
dialogue and development of consensus on actionable plans
A Common Narrative
Key questions • Where are we going? (Trends) • Would other futures be better? (Options) • How could we reach such futures? (Scenarios)
Supporting tools • Layered, accessible archives (To understand
what’s happening) • Interactive, layered simulations (To explore
futures that we could create)
Potential Project #1: Renewable Electricity & Smart Grid
At each project node (e.g., BA) • Acquire real-time performance data from renewable
electricity sources (wind, solar, etc.) • Acquire real-time performance data from electricity
load-management devices • Create layered software tools to simulate smart grids • Engage diverse stakeholders in smart-grid
simulations, including 100% renewable Across project nodes (e.g., BA, Boston……) • Stakeholders worldwide share their experience
Potential Project #2: Water Modeling in the Nile Basin
Develop layered tools to simulate water management strategies and options, Basin-wide
• Build on the Nile Forecasting System: “The simulation ability developed would allow assessing the consequences for Egypt of planned or actual water abstractions and of works across the river in the upstream countries, in order to plan appropriate adjustment measures.”
Promote a common narrative, Basin-wide • Engage diverse stakeholders in assessing water
management strategies and their implications • Create forums for collaboration
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